Okay, here's one I've been watching for awhile based on good fundamentals.
Minerals Corp (MSC) is mainly a Kaolin producer but has other activities too (see annoucements), lots of recent corporate activity with recent spin-offs.
Last year (2003) was a volatile transition stage as it got it's Skardon River plant in order and shipped lots of samples, now markets are opening up and sales are about to get going. It appears to be getting back to normal value (supposed to be 22c). Interesting pattern, see the charts and note the last few bars, especially the volume.
I reckon it's a goer, this week will tell imo. I see 9c as nearest support for a stop but need to have a closer look before entering as this may turn out to be some sort of bulltrap set up. Any other views or MSC followers?
(top chart is last six month including today, bottom chart is complete history)
RichKid
11th-January-2005, 08:39 PM
....Last year (2003) was a volatile transition stage
Oops! Meant to say 'Last year (2004)...'
tech/a
11th-January-2005, 09:08 PM
Reckon its to late to jump on this right now.
I think it will do exactly as CUE and JRV have done.
Pullback 61 to 50% (Fib) and we will get a second opportunity so on the watchlist.
If it pans out it pans out if not---
Saw another today but that is to late as well Ill post a chart on its own thread.
RichKid
11th-January-2005, 11:19 PM
Yes, earlier would have been better. In fact there was a lower risk opportunity with out of the money options last week (MSCO). I was a bit busy so didn't enter but now I will watch MSC/MSCO for an opportunity.
This recent spike in price is somewhat unusual to the previous ones due to volume and the overall co risk profile diminishing after a break in the downtrend. Directors say net asset backing is 22c. I haven't done the math but this is a turnaround story imo. There was also a mention a few months ago of an ex-Director slowly off loading stock- suggestion was that his shorting tactic was keeping the price down although I think it was just a director excuse for poor operating profile at that stage.
BTW, CUE is waiting on an estimate from Santos's work, hence slowdown after new issue at 25c.
RichKid
12th-January-2005, 11:24 PM
Another strong day today, let's see how tomorrow goes, over 12c is what's needed. Oppies look good value, I'll see if I can ride them to a decent profit. This may be a long run right upto 20c or so. Still some volatility, MSC is also starting a structured marketing plan to inform the market and customers about its products and prospects so it looks like a higher profile this year.
RichKid
13th-January-2005, 10:27 AM
Still watching this Tech? I think it's a goer for reasons above, it's carried on strong opens for the last few days on good volume (would have like a better finish yesterday to a full bodied candle), looks like a classic re-rating after overcoming operational problems, recent appointment of experienced Kaolin executive has filled the final hole in mgmt ranks. From what I see it's racing to fair value, see long term trend line at 20c on chart a few posts higher. It may not get there immediately but it will before long imo, I see 12c as another important short term level, needs to get there today or tomorrow to be a real runner. Any other MSC followers or holders?
doctorj
13th-January-2005, 10:34 AM
Follower, not a holder.
Lover not a hater. :D
RichKid
13th-January-2005, 10:40 AM
Follower, not a holder.
Lover not a hater. :D
Ok Dr Amorous, nice to have your company! ;)
Any views on MSC? I'm watching it cautiously now as this has certainly been a dramatic rise, my money is on the options.
doctorj
13th-January-2005, 11:00 AM
Looking at depth so far today, I don't think today is going to be your day. When it closes above 11.0, its highs back in July, I may look at an entry.
RichKid
13th-January-2005, 11:10 AM
Yes, it has quietened down a bit. 10.5c looks like a interesting level so 11c would be nice. Let's let this one play out...
RichKid
13th-January-2005, 11:24 AM
Do you use Comsec Doc? Reason I ask is because the chart I posted above (from Bigcharts.com) has 11c as the high, but ComSec gives me only 10.5c as the July high!!!
So it looks like the BigCharts version is wrong! I noticed this before in another stock but it just goes to show how important accurate information is when doing TA, especially with low priced stocks. It's a common problem but I'm glad ComSec is accurate. Phew!! Had a scare there.
Also, does anyone know why the high in the figures above is stated at 10.44c instead of 10.5c?
RichKid
18th-January-2005, 11:08 AM
Looks like a flag or pennant forming around 10.5c. Depth looks great, expecting 11c (resistance) to be broken if volume picks up but may take till next week. If it does break through as a flag or pennant next stop would be 12.5c (measured). Which would mean an even bigger % move for the oppies MSCO.
Will have to wait and see which patterns comes about though, a bit early to confirm, need lots more volume for this one to be convincing.
RichKid
18th-January-2005, 05:02 PM
Looks like volume has died and price with it, next two days will confirm it otherwise look to recovery imo, based on past spikes. Let's see where it finds support.
RichKid
19th-January-2005, 10:43 AM
AMAZING! What half a day can do- buy depth is HUGE. Right back upto 11c this morning, some tip sheet must have recommended it or there's an annoucement in the works. Might also have been some profit taking yesterday. Still a volatile range, no solid support as yet so will have to be watched closely for the rest of the week to see if is going to keep going or consolidate. Still a real risk of it falling to 8c.
End of day will give us a clearer picture as always, let's see if the buy depth holds.
Share Quote as at 10:44 Sydney Time, Wednesday, 19 January 2005
MINERALS CORPORATION FPO
Stock Bid $ Offer $ Last $ Change Open $ High $ Low $ Volume News
MSC 0.110 0.115 0.110 +0.013 0.105 0.110 0.105 3,249,328
Apparently FatProphets recommended a buy at 10c last night.
RichKid
19th-January-2005, 02:11 PM
And there goes 11.5.
Apparently FatProphets recommended a buy at 10c last night.
Hi Doc,
Thanks for the explanation, it's clearly the tipsheet buying that has saved this, otherwise we would have seen it fall imo. That sudden overnight rise in depth had to be explained. Checkout the annual report for fatprophets (on their website www.fatprophets.com.au it's free) and you'll see they're heavily into MSC. Maybe they know something we don't. The number of orders at 10c is huge. Also do a google search and you'll get some reviews of MSC if you haven't found them already.
Question now is will the rest of the market wake up to it and support it? Volume will tell imo, solid at about 5m so far today. So short term support around 10c is what it looks like. It's upto the co now to impress the market. I'd say the prophets are expecting it to get to 12c short term and much higher long term (ie 20c+). They had free sample reports on their website for MSC but I haven't checked it out recently.
RichKid
8th-March-2005, 02:05 PM
Looking bad for MSC, appears to be heading down and out again. Below support at 10c, looks to be heading for next possible support level at 8.5c, very poor volume. Might have to wait a bit longer (AGAIN!) for this 'turnaround' story to get going- upto management now to keep things straight, read some critical comments about them on Reefcap, makes MSC less attractive to me now as they appear to be fiddling with the figures.
RichKid
12th-April-2005, 02:39 PM
Well, back to the downtrend for MSC, made an annct re a deal to mine minerals locally via taking up a position but the bulk of their efforts are at Skardon River so they'll still have to get that operation going well. The directors are the main worry now for me, hard to rely on their anncts with complete faith, nothing substantial has really eventuated yet.
richard987
3rd-May-2005, 01:03 PM
Hi, MSC should get back up in a month or two in a big way once the market gets around to taking another look at this. Great potential here at current levels of 0.067!
horsham
7th-May-2005, 04:56 PM
Richard. Ihope you are right. I have been in this company for 4/5 years and am still a believer but the Directors sure try shareholders patience with their continual changes of direction raher than concentrating on what mat be a very good business. KAOLIN
Hi, MSC should get back up in a month or two in a big way once the market gets around to taking another look at this. Great potential here at current levels of 0.067!
richard987
10th-May-2005, 10:20 AM
Horsham
They seem to be doing everything they need to for the kaolin at present and the shipping delay situation has been fixed I understand - this was the last hurdle as far as I know from FatProphets analysis. They have appointed kaolin experts so everything should be ok in terms of unexpected problems. I also notice that a director has taken the chance to add to his shareholding in recent days.
FatProphets are still keen on them as of a month ago. They are going to be doing some major PR over the next few weeks they say so now could be the turning point.
horsham
10th-May-2005, 05:30 PM
Richard
Tks for ur up-date. Also noticed purchase by director. A good sign.
Also senior appointments recently made. They would cost plenty to
be in that enviroment so presumably V.A. and his Board think that
movement may not be far away.
Rgds
richard987
18th-May-2005, 11:57 AM
I notice there is a decent increase in the bid prices in MSC today.. wonder if this indicates the market is about to take note of MSC's PR campaign.
sam76
24th-May-2005, 05:03 PM
No announcements but a 7% drop today. Any theories?
Sam
richard987
25th-May-2005, 09:49 AM
Volume is thin.. and I haven't seen the PR campaign start yet. Thats about all I can suggest, I've got no other new facts to go on from between 2 days ago and yesterday.
richard987
25th-May-2005, 10:30 AM
Yes, its back up to 0.76 today so I think my last email was valid.
sam76
25th-May-2005, 10:51 AM
And my bid at .073 didn't get on... :banghead:
richard987
25th-May-2005, 11:18 AM
In my opinion there's no difference between a bid at 0.073 and 0.076 if you believe the stock is way undervalued as its not worth risking missing the main trend for a small difference like that. And if its overvalued then there's no great difference either. Thats the way I approach these things anyhow.
sam76
25th-May-2005, 11:39 AM
In my opinion there's no difference between a bid at 0.073 and 0.076 if you believe the stock is way undervalued as its not worth risking missing the main trend for a small difference like that. And if its overvalued then there's no great difference either. Thats the way I approach these things anyhow.
very existential. :D
richard987
25th-May-2005, 11:43 AM
lol yes it did sound existential now you mention it
sam76
7th-June-2005, 09:16 AM
Morning guys,
Seems like their capital raising isn't going as well as expected. Haven't heard much about the public relations drive, either.
You'd think they would've coincided the two, wouldn't you???
:confused:
richard987
14th-June-2005, 10:52 AM
hi sam, where can i get info about how the capital raising is going?
cheers
richard
RichKid
14th-June-2005, 11:03 AM
What a disaster! If this company had reliable mgmt it would not be down in the dumps, I saw from the FatProphets website (see free samples) that it's been recommended a few times at around 12c. If anyone thinks that 6c is a bottom just look at the longterm chart and you'll see it's gone much lower. If that support level breaks, as it well could if they are in a capital raising, then 6c is highly likely to turn into a formidable resistance level. I did trade MSC thinking it was a good play but then discovered (too late) that mgmt couldn't be trusted. Hence my preference for BMX for minerals exposure. The TA pattern in this stock is very bad so on the black list for me as a pure speccy. Let's see if and when it turns around whether it'll be just another spike as before.
sam76
14th-June-2005, 11:25 AM
Morning Richard,
I just figured that becasue they extended their offer that the raising wasn't going as well as planned.
I hope I'm wrong...
Cheers,
Sam
richard987
14th-June-2005, 02:38 PM
There has been no news to explain the markets gradual loss of interest...so why conclude its a bad stock at these levels? Surely the cheaper it is the better.
Management - if fat prophets like them, they must be doing an ok job of managing things.
richard987
16th-June-2005, 12:06 PM
Check the letter to shareholders today on MSC - looks very encouraging and suggests there is no basis for the recent sell-off except people taking losses before the financial year end... I think there will be a big rebound based on this letter in the next month or two.
horsham
16th-June-2005, 06:03 PM
A wordy 24 page report put out by Aegis Equities today repeats a great deal of what MSC Board have been saying for a very long time.
Unfortunately no financial info. is contained in this report other than the belief that SRK will be at a cash flow break-even point of about 40,000 tpa during the 2nd half of 2005.
No details of future financial requirements given or likely-hood of date of entering an area of profitability.
A very disappointing report in my opinion.
tech/a
16th-June-2005, 06:38 PM
Rich
Just having a look your "Technical trade" is and has been dead for a while.
Think its also Fundamentally dead as well---thats what the market is currently saying.
Nothing wrong with a dead trade as long as people dont continue to look and somehow find positives as it continues to fall.
Lookforward to your next find.
tech
sam76
16th-June-2005, 07:56 PM
This one has sucked enough of my money.
I'm out.
It'll prob. scoot up now ;)
tech/a
16th-June-2005, 09:26 PM
This one has sucked enough of my money.
I'm out.
It'll prob. scoot up now ;)
Sam.
Whoa.
I wouldnt be so quick.
Its bottomed in the short term.
Technically todays trading is short term positive.
Not a buy signal but one which if I was on would have me
watching for some opportunity to catch some $$$s back.
Technically at 6.5c its in the last support ZONE trading above
8c in my veiw is not likely but I'd give it a bit of room.
Trading below 6c would be my stop.
Anyway my opinion only I'm not a financial advisor---thank god.
So find one if you need professional advice---which you can choose then to accept or reject.Other than that the decisions yours.
sam76
17th-June-2005, 07:21 AM
morning Tech,
lol, I did speak to both my brokers (they didn't want me to purchase in the first place) - I just liked what MSC had to offer.
Jumped in at 7.5, limped out at 6 (yes, I missed yesterdays announcement! :banghead: )
I still think perhaps long term with this one, but at the momemt my money is better used somewhere else, and I get to use it against some of the winners i've had. (TRG $3.40 in $14.60 out :D )
SAying that, I wish all currently holding the best of luck :)
Sam
RichKid
18th-June-2005, 12:22 AM
Rich
Just having a look your "Technical trade" is and has been dead for a while.
Think its also Fundamentally dead as well---thats what the market is currently saying.
Nothing wrong with a dead trade as long as people dont continue to look and somehow find positives as it continues to fall.
Lookforward to your next find.
tech
Hi Tech,
Yep, it's a dud now. I check the web for broker reports etc to find good fundamental candidates and then check out the TA pattern. Obviously the directors have fooled us all, they are now going to various other ventures so it might suggest they have lost faith in Skardon River Kaolin. Someone on another forum had a great post examining the mgmt forecasts and figure fiddling, that was the first bad word I'd heard about it.
My trade resulted in a miniscule profit and it lasted about two weeks, a waste but at least not a loss. I traded the options MSCO. Maybe I should have closed this thread once I finished it, didn't really post every step I took in the thread.
Hopefully the next choice will be better! Might find a safer pattern, that saucer pattern thread may need a kick along, hard to get genuine candidates though. See my Patrick's thread for another trade where I nearly stuffed up, the current price action has saved me as I've managed to bring my stop up to make a small profit. My earlier trade plan didn't have a strategy to move stops up ASAP (well it did but I didn't follow it!), now it does for sure, it's thanks to you, the many dollars I've lost and some of the books I've been reading- they all add up to give me a much needed wake up call. PRK thread: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1364&page=3
RichKid
18th-June-2005, 11:08 PM
Just closing this thread now as it's gone off the specific topic it started on.
I'll open a new general thread on MSC/MSCO here: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=14018#post14018
