VCR - Ventracor Limited

[markrmau]

Just interested. Looking at the charts, I wouldn't touch VCR.

However, according to comsec, ABN have it as a strong buy. Does anyone know anything about the ABN report?

[Dynamite]

Hi, markrmau


Just go to www.ventracor.com

Investor Center , expert analysis and take it from there.

[smuggler]

A screaming buy in my opinion. Also look at LOK. :blover:

[skin]

This share continues to fall for little reason. The product is good and is just awaiting US trial. The Australian trial was successful. I keep buying and reducing cost base but it doesn't seem to "hit the ground". Is there any news out there that is adversely affecting this little gem?

[Fleeta]

Are you sure the trials were successful? I thought they had a trial patient that died.

In this kind of market, anything that is risky will get punished.

[son of baglimit]

fleeta - VCR trials were a success - i think 2 or 3 patients died, but from other issues, rather than anything heart related. theere are about 5 or 6 who have had them in for some time +/- 1 year, and still going strong. i have been gonna buy them for ages, but they just keep dropping - just waiting for the flat spot, then jump on time.....they will be a goer.

[markrmau]

i agree, weren't the trial patients generally in very poor condition to begin with? (cant stick an experimental device in a patient who could do well from trusted methods). a few deaths could be expected along the way.

however wont touch untill a clear uptrend is established. with current market conditions, this sort of future tech (and earnings) company could still have a lot more downside.

[skin]

The deaths (2) were not product related as previously mentioned and it appears I have been too ambitious trying to anticiapte a recovery and not waiting for the rider to get back in the saddle. I'lll STOP buying until that happens. thanks for your comments online. :)

[Mofra]

VCR is a stock I traded (ST) many months ago and have not touched since - given the huge lead times to commercial availability (if it gets there) getting in so early was always going to be a risky proposition.

The major concern I can see is competition - Thor in the US have a gen1 device already being used. Is the product inferior to VCRs? Yes. But just having a good product does not ensure success (ask CMQ's $8+ buyers). Thor is developing a gen3 device and by all accounts is behind VCR in development however given the way business works in the US, having business relationships & an established distribution network already in place may ultimately prove to be more important than whichever product is better.

[skin]

Volatility has created a good trading share in the past and I expect the future will be more of the same.

[shaunnell]

I read an article recently (sorry cannot remember where) that stated that VCR was still 1.5-2 years away from maturity in terms of product and market. I am like you, got in early anticipating a general increase only to find the slope is the other way. My gut feel is this will eventually be a good stock but will need to wait it out.

[visual]

does anybody know why vcr dropped 6cents today.there doesnt seem to be any news .thanks

[farmboy]

hi visual,

A little inside knowledge perhaps?

I dumped the last of mine yesterday. It has been an expensive holding for me. May buy back in later if it shows any promise but there have been rumours about lately that its rivals have better products.

[KaiserBun]

Ahhh VCR. I love this stock.

If things dont work out with humans, i am sure they could go back to focusing on animals again.

i am sure they could corner the pet market.
All those silly Americans wanting a heart implant for their pets, so they torture them for a couple of years longer.

[Knobby22]

I love the technology. It must be weird to have no heartbeat, I think they need a big brother partner though to speed up the process before someone else beats them.

Could be a huge winner but still seems so far away.

[visual]

so vcr drops seven cents in ten minutes and nothing but silence from the asx why no queries?and as for insider knowledge looks likely i`m sorry to agree.

[Happy]

Speeding tickets are usually given when stock goes the other way.

[saichuen]

hi all,

i'm fairly new in this forum and this will be my first posting. so here i go...

the potential prospective market for 3G LVAS decives are good enough to fit for everyone (i.e. Ventracor, Berlin Heart, Temuro, Thoratec, etc.). the rumours that the competitor has a more superior product is less worrying for me as i will be more concerned if Ventracor will eventually deliver the final product to the market. it has the potential and will probably do so within 1-2 years time, perhaps?

my 2cents worth here. :2twocents

cheers!

[visual]

any thoughts on vcr.
seems some news is on the way :o

[visual]

anyone else been to the ventracor website?
very interesting video of the company and how the product works, you actually see how they put the pump together, the people who work there, etc........ also they show how they are testing, so far one pump has been working for over 3 years and as yet it doesnt look like failing :) :p:

[visual]

ventracor,slows down to a deathly rate!
what a way to end the year with ventracor pumping out good news but the price keeps going south,why,is it so?lol :banghead:

[profithunter]

Its a frustrating time to be holding VCR, it seems that everytime they release positive news im'patient' shareholders sell into the rally.

[visual]

Re=heartware,starting the human trials,
how do you think will affect vcr.
I`m trying to stay positive seeing that the ce mark is not too far away but the price keeps falling althought the volume is fairly small.
Anyone have a different opinion. :confused:

[ralphski]

Re=heartware,starting the human trials,
how do you think will affect vcr.
I`m trying to stay positive seeing that the ce mark is not too far away but the price keeps falling althought the volume is fairly small.
Anyone have a different opinion. :confused:


My opinion is this:


Heartware starting human trials will affect those in for the quick buck on Ventracor. But, Ventracor has already had many trials and is ahead of the game in that respect. Trials dealing with hearts require significant elapsed time before they can be evaluated. VCR are ahead of the game in this respect.

While my personal long term (3 years) price target for Ventracor is $3.37, I am not going to be dissapointed or surprised if doesn't get there. My price target is based on the share trading at a PER of 15, fixed costs of $40million, $140K payment per device, 0.7 variable margin per device. ABN Amro assume that Ventracor will capture 20% of the 60,000 market by 2014. I assume that by 2008 Ventracor will be looking 720 patients annually. I could be way of the ball here, but hey no one is Nostradamus.

Until Ventracor receive revenues and post profits, there is no reason for the share price to move, except for how close the trials and approval phase is correlating with the companie's plan. Unfortunately, hype will probably be responsible for most movements. The same applies to Heartwave.

I am a bit annoyed that I didn't double down and purchase Heartware shares as well. There is probably room in the market for both.

[spottygoose]

It will only take a few more of these & a bit of news to finally get VCR running like we are used to. The following recommendation is from Morgans in todays Australian Investment Review -

2006 Healthcare Tips From ABN Amro Morgans
January 09 2006 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)

At the beginning of 2005, healthcare analysts at ABN Amro Morgans selected two stocks to watch. Genepharm Australasia (GAA) subsequently returned 30% and Alchemia (ACL) 55%. Feeling a bit chuffed, the analysts are giving it another shot.

Three stocks are in focus for 2006. Alchemia gets another run, as its synthetic heparin project is on track and is expected to be launched in the US in 2008. Other promising projects are in cancer, eye disease and anti-bacterial products. ABN suggests Alchemia has a number of value enhancing milestones anticipated in 2006.

Ventracor (VCR) is another contender, as the CE Mark Trial for Ventracor’s heart pump, the VentrAssist, is expected to complete recruitment in 1Q06, approval is expected in July 06, and first sales in Europe and Australia towards the end of 06.

Finally, the pick of the large caps is Sonic Healthcare (SHL). In Europe, further acquisitions are possible, says ABN, which the analysts have not yet factored in. There is also potential for revenue increases in Australian and NZ pathology and diagnostic imaging, due to increases in government spending. The analysts are forecasting 20%+ organic earnings growth in their model from FY06-8 (which compares well with global competitors at 8-13%).

:)

[visual]

some interesting parcels going through today also yesterday,could it be that some news is on the way.
I`m not quite sure this is a logical question,vcr is running out of money,well not dangerously so but they keep employing all these people who presumably they poach off other companies as in todays ann.My question is,where is the money coming from,or are these people not paid all that well? :confused:

[ralphski]

Hi Visual,

From Aegis evaluation on the 6/1/6

"We also note that a capital raising will
be required by the company at some point over the next 6-9 months and depending on the market sentiment at
that time, the company may need to offer a discount to the prevailing price to get the issue away."

They have set a price target of $1.39 for twelve months, though they haven't explictly stated how many units they expect Ventracor to move by end of 2006, which in 12 months should be the main driver.

[Knobby22]

I've been looking at this company for years waiting for a suitable time to buy in.
I have decided now is the time. In two years time this company could be well on the way to becoming another Cochlear.

[TheAnalyst]

Just my opinion but its looking like the Evans and Tate story and the charts are similar as well.

Just my observation..

[ralphski]

Just my opinion but its looking like the Evans and Tate story and the charts are similar as well.

Just my observation..

Is this sarcasm or dark humour I am not yet privy too comprehend?


Apart from the X and Y axes there are no similarities between those charts. ETW has been a long term downward trend with a long established product. It's high volume correlated to sharp and fast fall in the share price.

On the other hand, VCR, that has not yet established it's product in the market place. During the high volume period VCR appreciated at a steady pace.



There are absolutely no similarities between these companies, their charts, or the drivers for the share price.

[TheAnalyst]

Is this sarcasm or dark humour I am not yet privy too comprehend?


Apart from the X and Y axes there are no similarities between those charts. ETW has been a long term downward trend with a long established product. It's high volume correlated to sharp and fast fall in the share price.

On the other hand, VCR, that has not yet established it's product in the market place. During the high volume period VCR appreciated at a steady pace.



There are absolutely no similarities between these companies, their charts, or the drivers for the share price.

But the down trend pattern over a same period of time is similar and both heading the same way...both have no dividend either....unless of course they are forming a longterm pennant pattern???

xo

[visual]

Analyst,
are you seriously comparing a wine company with a medical invention


wine =glut lower prices
vcr=lives

yes even given that several companies are already supplying the same market it will never equal to wine.

:eek:

[visual]

RE= vcr volume hotting up generally when this happens it means that the people who are privy to the information first are getting excited,I noticed at least one trade this morning for 100th. just got back so don`t know if other of the same size have gone through however havent seen volume hit a million for a while ,so there goes :2twocents

[ralphski]

But the down trend pattern over a same period of time is similar and both heading the same way...both have no dividend either....unless of course they are forming a longterm pennant pattern???

xo

Yes, but Evans and Tate is making money on products right now. VCRs share price is being traded on speculation / belief that they will make money in the future from a product that is yet to enter the market place.

Please don't ask me for figures / costs like you did in the MGX thread, but a bottle of Evans and Tate wine costs $20, with literally thousands of alternatives.

With VCR each device will generate circa $130,000. There is but a handful of competitors, with only one already implanting devices. VCR is next. HeartWare, whose shares I wish I had purchased, are about 18 months behind VCR. Because of the high barriers of entry, as long as the product does get approval for Europe and US, VCR will have very little competition, and people will have very little choice about getting the device implanted, because otherwise they die....


There are no similarities in the supply chain or consumer behaviour regarding these two products.


....argghhhh is this post filmed on totally hidden video?

[TheAnalyst]

Yes, but Evans and Tate is making money on products right now. VCRs share price is being traded on speculation / belief that they will make money in the future from a product that is yet to enter the market place.

Please don't ask me for figures / costs like you did in the MGX thread, but a bottle of Evans and Tate wine costs $20, with literally thousands of alternatives.

With VCR each device will generate circa $130,000. There is but a handful of competitors, with only one already implanting devices. VCR is next. HeartWare, whose shares I wish I had purchased, are about 18 months behind VCR. Because of the high barriers of entry, as long as the product does get approval for Europe and US, VCR will have very little competition, and people will have very little choice about getting the device implanted, because otherwise they die....


There are no similarities in the supply chain or consumer behaviour regarding these two products.


....argghhhh is this post filmed on totally hidden video?

I realise they are not the same type of company it just seems at the moment the market feels the same way about them...and i seem to think the chart shows that for this period of time..its not so much that the chart captures the two companies as they are both different..but i think the chart at mid point actually is a picture of the feelings or emotions of the market participants at this time.

People are waiting and standing back looking for a bit of direction and positives to be confirmed...the medical device approval will surley change the chart pattern once the good news hits..well...wine have to wait until demand out strips supply i think and thats the key the glut will be around longer than we will be waiting for that approval announcement and thats where the chart will change.

[visual]

wooohohooo,vcr has completed its trial
and we are off.yepepep :p:

[visual]

up fifteen percent.I almost sold my shares I was so sick of waiting.

Sorry Joe honestly not ramping,its just that we are down about 30 thousands and i`m excited to know that perhaps we dont have to write it off.

[bullmarket]

Hi visual


wooohohooo,vcr has completed its trial
and we are off.yepepep :p:

I just had a quick look at today's ann out of curiosity and yes it looks encouraging, but imo there are 2 basic fundamental issues to consider for anyone looking to buy as a long term investment as opposed to someone looking to make a quick buck trading the hype/ramping (I'm not saying you're ramping - but VCR used to be a rampers' favourite at another site).

1) I see commsec forcasts have 2007 and 2008 EPS forcasts as -5.4cps and +4.4cps respectively.

So before buying for the long term I would want to know if those forcasts take into account the event's in today's ann....ie....does today's ann change the market's expectations for the time table to production.

2) If the 2008 EPS forcast of +4.4cps isn't brought forward or upgraded as a result of today's ann then VCR already is on a prospective PER of ~24.5 and so any short term rally might be short lived.

Bottom line: unless someone just wants to take a punt on any hype, do your own research especially on stocks like VCR before buying.

Food for thought and good luck to anyone buying now and to those currently suffering long term holders

cheers

bullmarket :)

[visual]

Bullmarket,honestly do you have to bring logic into this,let me enjoy my fantasy that maybe i will not be poor for much longer.



And yes Bullmarket is right do you own research . :p:
this is in no way a recomendation to buy.

[bullmarket]

ok, sorry visual :o

bullmarket :)

[ralphski]

Hi visual



I just had a quick look at today's ann out of curiosity and yes it looks encouraging, but imo there are 2 basic fundamental issues to consider for anyone looking to buy as a long term investment as opposed to someone looking to make a quick buck trading the hype/ramping (I'm not saying you're ramping - but VCR used to be a rampers' favourite at another site).

1) I see commsec forcasts have 2007 and 2008 EPS forcasts as -5.4cps and +4.4cps respectively.

So before buying for the long term I would want to know if those forcasts take into account the event's in today's ann....ie....does today's ann change the market's expectations for the time table to production.

2) If the 2008 EPS forcast of +4.4cps isn't brought forward or upgraded as a result of today's ann then VCR already is on a prospective PER of ~24.5 and so any short term rally might be short lived.

Bottom line: unless someone just wants to take a punt on any hype, do your own research especially on stocks like VCR before buying.

Food for thought and good luck to anyone buying now and to those currently suffering long term holders

cheers

bullmarket :)

I am not sure where commsec pulled those earnings out of.


I did a 2/3 year back of the envelope price target the other day. I made an assumption/estimate that they will implant 720 devices per year, from 08/09. I thought two a day around the states is not unreasonable, given that there is according VCR 27,000 patients a year who need a transplant. Yes I pulled that number from where the sun don't shine... but quite frankly, I can't see anyone coming up with a more rigorously validated figure.

I also assumed

Payment per device 140000
variable margin (excluding fixed costs) per device 0.7
Cash burn rate $4,000,000+month
Trading @ PER circa 15

long story short the envelope showed a Price target of $1.987, or EPS of $0.13.


Whether that is anywhere near true or not, one thing is clear, if they can implant a few devices, they will make $s. Most of my information has come from (publicly available) interviews with VCR people, and info from competitors. I shyed away from stockbroker analysis, to form my own opinion. The long and short of it is, that VCR is an undeniably simple share, if they implant devices, the make money, lots of it. If they don't, it remains a yo yo.

The sack of gold goes to the Great Ape that can best guess the number of devices implanted in 2/3 years time.

[bullmarket]

Thanks ralphski :)

Commsec research data comes from Aspect Huntley as far as I know. What assumptions and input data was used to come up with their numbers I have no idea.

Your example shows that VCR's future earnings estimations can vary greatly between analysts depending on the assumptions that are input into the calculations and I suppose that is the tricky bit in trying to work out what is fair value for VCR, at least until they actually start producing and marketing, which imo is not a certainty yet and a little way off atm.

VCR is not the type of stock I normally look at - too risky for me. I just wanted to throw in my :2twocents worth of concerns as food for thought.

It'll probably be a good idea to see if broker/analyst forcasts are upgraded at all in the next day or so given today's ann.

cheers

bullmarket :)

[visual]

Bullmarket,
abnamro generally seems to be the people who pay most attention to vcr,and their numbers take into account the milestones to be achieved and those already achieved,
so I doubt that their numbers are going to change seeing that they come up with the numbers taking into account the milestone

Its probably easier for you to go to the vcr website and look up the report.

[bullmarket]

thanks visual :)

I suppose then a lot depends on what PER the market eventually puts on VCR - and that is probably highly debatable as well atm.

If that forcast EPS of 4.4cps isn't upgraded by the market then at 120c VCR is on a prospective PER of ~27 or a PER of ~9 with ralphski's number crunching.

I'll continue to watch with interest from the sidelines :)

cheers...

[ralphski]

Just to add to the discussion, I am mainly concerned with one factor when it comes to VCR, potential profits.


According to my calculations they need to sell 460 units per annum to break even, if they retain the same burn rate, and margin per device.

Just to give you an idea of the changes in value with devices implanted per annum:

Patients SP EPS
400 -$0.45 -$0.03
500 $0.31 $0.02
600 $1.07 $0.07
720 $1.99 $0.13
800 $2.60 $0.17
900 $3.36 $0.22



So basically it all comes down to the number of patients implanted. The figures may change, but given the high margin per device, but high fixed costs, once they make money, they make lot's of it. How close I am to the numbers, I won't know for a while...

[saichuen]

cautious as we may be but the announcement released yesterday is definitely another milestone achievement for VCR. i do believe the outlook for VCR in the year of 2006 will be optimistic.

:2twocents

happy trading!

[bullmarket]

just happy to watch from the sidelines...:)

as I said in my original post "Bottom line: unless someone just wants to take a punt on any hype, do your own research especially on stocks like VCR before buying."

is a bit of reality creeping back in today or just some profit taking?....I don't know, but VCR still looks like a good day traders' stock and not for the slow or faint hearted.

cheers :)

[Knobby22]

I agree, bullmarket.

They still need to have a raising and there is still a lot of water to go under the bridge.

I have 800 bought recently, mainly to get in on the raising.
I did buy a lot more but found the stock to volatile and the risks too great for my liking so sold down.

[visual]

Bullmarket,
remember how I asked you not to let logic get in the way of my fantasy,yeh you got it vcr back down to where it was a few days ago,it just seems to always behave like that ,cant wait for it to release an actual product though,then well be able to judge it on its merits.until then back to the seesaw. :D

[visual]

Did anyone else get a call from someone representing vcr?
enquiring whether we had received the rights offer.
I`m thinking that perhaps its not being well received, hope i`m wrong.

[ducati916]

Total revenue for 2005 was $2.7million composed of "interest" earned on cash balances.

The net loss was a further $27million.
Total earnings of Directors = $1.16million or 4.3% of the total loss.
Total earnings of executives = 1.59million or 5.9% of the loss
This doesn't even include options & performance bonuses.

Revenues;
These fell in 2005.
Why?
Because as the cash is spent, so interest payments fall.

Total accumulated losses.
A staggering $84.7million.
Total funds contributed via shareholders = $123.0million

This company as an "investment" is of the most speculative nature. It has no earnings, burns cash at an unbelievable rate, and has no concrete idea of when if ever, earnings will appear.

As if that was not enough, the quality of the medical research is very low.
Patient numbers, recruited into the trials are so low as to provide zero statistical significance. The patient follow-up is too short.

The actual technology is barbaric.
We are talking about an open wound, that is vulnerable to opportunistic infection. The technology failed, and had to be placed on recall. That no patients died, may be down to sheer luck, but then again we'll never know, as the patient numbers were just so low.

With the increasing advances within stem-cell treatments, this is a real non-starter. CHF is an easily diagnosed, slow progressing condition, and very treatable in early stages. The potential monetization of this product will be fraught with difficulty.

jog on
d998

[Rafa]

i didn't get a call, but i don't think i'll be taking it up...

only cause I haven't got spare cash at the moment...
by spare cash, i mean cash that I don't want to invest in a resource company ;)

when VCR finally does take off, i think us holders deserve twice the amount of capital gains tax concessions... that’s hows long I’ve held this share for.... hahaha… well, you gotta laugh about it…

[Rafa]

yike... just read the duc's post...
you've scared the hell out of me :eek:

[Knobby22]

duc, you better ring the CEO and tell him that the 15 (is it 20 now) successful inplants were good luck and he had better get out of the business of artificial hearts.

Also tell him there is no future in it as stem cell treatments are practically growing new hearts and it's only a matter of months.

While your at it, ring the CEOs of the nine competitors trying to do the same thing. Obviously there all run by idiots who don't have the clear thinking ability of yourself and would welcome your insight.

[ducati916]

Knob


duc, you better ring the CEO and tell him that the 15 (is it 20 now) successful inplants were good luck and he had better get out of the business of artificial hearts.

Funny that, I'm sure someone called Spooner was once upon a time the CEO.
Oh, he jumped ship to another, mesoblast, which by some ironic twist of fate is involved with.........stem cell technology looking at CHF.

You do realize that statistical significance is the GOLD STANDARD in medicine.
Without statistical significance demonstrated within the research methodology there will be no doctors willing to place their careers and malpractice insurance on the line to utilize a new technology that has not the highest research design backing the results.


Also tell him there is no future in it as stem cell treatments are practically growing new hearts and it's only a matter of months.

The aetiology of the CHF is one of the more important factors to be considered. By way of example mitral valve regurgitation, easily treated.
Aortic valve stenosis, again generally easily treated.

The move in medicine is away from invasive procedures, and towards preventative management. The market therefore is not a growing market, far from it, it is likely to be a shrinking market.

A shrinking market, that VCR has lost first mover advantage in.
Will it ever be able to compete on price, or any other metric?
I say no, but, that is simply based on an evaluation of the financial power of the competition arrayed against them, miracles do happen, or so I am led to believe.

Obviously, within your analytical paradigm, little things like facts, carry no importance.


While your at it, ring the CEOs of the nine competitors trying to do the same thing. Obviously there all run by idiots who don't have the clear thinking ability of yourself and would welcome your insight.

I'm sure that they would. Unfortunately they probably couldn't afford my consultancy charge.

jog on
d998

[visual]

Duc,
the recall was never undertaken because it placed people at risk.

however perhaps you should contact the people who over the last couple of years have been able to leave hospital and actually enjoy a good quality of life due to the ventrasist and tell them that the operation is barbaric and they should be dead, really.

Yes vcr is speculative but you know that when you go in. So we whinge a bit but your dismissal of the technology is mindboggling

[ducati916]

visual


Duc,
the recall was never undertaken because it placed people at risk.

Incorrect.
VCR implemented a field exchange. This field exchange was classified as a product *recall* by the Australian Therapeutics Goods Administration.


however perhaps you should contact the people who over the last couple of years have been able to leave hospital and actually enjoy a good quality of life due to the ventrasist and tell them that the operation is barbaric and they should be dead, really.

Well one is dead, and therefore is not contactable.
This however raises another study issue.
Patient selection, and selection bias. The previous data that I had looked at was not of a particularly high standard, and again, with a potentially life & death intervention, the research must at a minimum meet the gold standard, and ideally try to surpass the standard.


Yes vcr is speculative but you know that when you go in. So we whinge a bit but your dismissal of the technology is mindboggling

That is fine then. As a speculator, you have then risk management appropriate to your strategy, and have not exposed yourself to undue, or unnecessary risk in excess of that analyzed.

The *technology* is clever from an engineering point of view.
Unfortunately, it is just not clever enough.
Another example, the statistical significance of the risks associated with blood clotting due to intrinsic platelet activation, and or extrinsic activation.
This is a vital set of data that just has not been adequately tested.

Additionally, what was the rationale of selling the only profitable component of this business, back in 2003 sometime? This was the only source of revenue, and would have been instrumental in developing markets, and market contacts, never mind amortizing some of the R&D costs, rather than the shareholders...............oh yes I remember now, management claimed it was too difficult to manage...........

From a stock selection point of view, at $0.88'ish, it is grossly overvalued.
Even for a speculator, ignoring any fundamental analysis, there is nothing in the chart that currently suggests an entry point..........so why even bother with it currently?

The only other possibility is someone who purchased the *story* without regard to fundamentals, or technicals, and now is just holding and hoping that the hole doesn't get too much deeper.


jog on
d998

[visual]

Duc,
the people who are having the ventrassist implanted are people with no other choice, without this operation they would have died. So far the people who have died havent been linked to the ventrassist. The recall was not life threathening and not linked to any deaths. As for the price, its an open market, the market decides the price.
The ventrassist does not damage the blood, thats why all over the world its accepeted by eminent cardiologists as a good product, so far its outlasted everyones expectation. Once all the data is in then we`ll see.

[ducati916]

visual


the people who are having the ventrassist implanted are people with no other choice, without this operation they would have died. So far the people who have died havent been linked to the ventrassist.

And how has this been ascertained?
Through statistically significant research?
Not a chance, that is simply the marketing blurb released to the media.
The truth is, the research design is of a low standard, and none of the difficult questions can be answered, because there is a paucity of relevant data.


As for the price, its an open market, the market decides the price.

The *price* relates to a value.
The value, is very generous at $0.15, and represents the value of the patents, that could be used in other industries. The value in the medical industry is probably not that high.


The ventrassist does not damage the blood, thats why all over the world its accepeted by eminent cardiologists as a good product, so far its outlasted everyones expectation. Once all the data is in then we`ll see.

Incorrect.
It most certainly does damage blood components.
The *damage* was deemed non-material by the company.
Which just highlights the question...........how do they know it's non-material.
Do they have statistically significant results by which such a claim can be supported by the evidence?............Not even close.

As to being accepted by eminent cardiologists..........
When they are no longer on the research payroll, and they have to take responsibility, and put at risk their liability insurance, and their careers on the line, we'll see how many really believe.

jog on
d998

[Knobby22]

duc loves an argument or should I say his real identity....

Sideshow Bob!

[visual]

Knobby,
me thinks sideshow bob is ramming, none of what he says makes sense.

Duc,
the people who are having the ventrassist have reached the end of the road as far as other medication or methods are concerned or are you saying that these eminent doctors are somehow lying to their patients for the benefit of vcr. :swear: all over the world?

May I suggest that you visit the ventracor website and see the information released to the market and then at least you can make an informed decision. Other than that, ram away.

[Knobby22]

Yes, Sideshow Bob, the evil criminal genius in the Simpsons for people lacking that part of general knowledge in their eduction. It's sort of half a backhander and half a compliment. You do sound like him Duc.

Anyway, visual, he does make a couple of fair points underneath the bear baiting.

Sideshow Bob

I agree, the research is still early days and is not very statistically significantly however it is very promising. And as an osteapath I know you would see many quack remedies pushed by all the levels of pond scum down to naturapaths. However, the research has been progressing for some years now and appears to be suceeding. You assume that human behaviour will improve and preventative behaviour can be obtained. I'm sure you have trouble getting patients to do weight training.

I also agree with the fact that the direction of medicine is trying to change, but as the equipment get smaller in design and emergency situations occur requiring treatment such as heart transplant which is not often possible on short notice then this equipment is at its best. Not all disease is slowly progressive, heart damage can occur suddenly due to viruses, blockages etc.
I therefore disagree that there is not a market for this product.

The third valid point regarding competitors, of cpourse this is tru, and I agree this makes the risk in this company all the greater however it may still succeed aqs have others and there are a lot of factors that will effect this.
I would say that Ventracor has the advantage of being focused and having built up a high level of knowledge from being in the field a long time and having built up practical experience. It also benefits from the excellent level of knowledge of the Australian (and NZ) medical and scientific establishments.

Of course other competitors have other advantages.

I am not saying its a buy. I own very few, But I think you are too harsh as to the possibilities.

[Knobby22]

In addition, there are over 50 implants now.
European CE mark trial is taking place.
The application for funds took place and it is expected the rights issue will also be successful.

In the end, there are obstacles and risks.

We shall see.

[ducati916]

visual


Duc,
the people who are having the ventrassist have reached the end of the road as far as other medication or methods are concerned or are you saying that these eminent doctors are somehow lying to their patients for the benefit of vcr. all over the world?

Research hospitals and doctors are paid by VCR vast sums of money to perform the research.............who did you think paid for it, or did you just think doctors and hospitals were altruistic?

That in of itself is a bias, and cannot be discounted within a statistical analysis, therefore the research methodology must be of a very high standard to show that these and other biases have been controlled, allowed for within the research design.

Therefore, with such a low absolute number of patients.....50, this just cannot be adequately accounted for. Therefore, immediately the research is flawed, and badly flawed.

The implant also does not *treat* all forms of CHF.
One example already given, Aortic stenosis. VCR's implant in this type of patient with CHF............total waste of time.

Therefore, what percentage of patients presenting with a diagnosis of CHF present with aortic stenosis? Cut your revenue forcasts immediately by that % number.

Another example; diastolic dysfunction. This also would not be treatable by VCR's implant, so reduce the revenues by that % also.

Another example; Volume overload states, anemia & hyperthyroidism.
Reduce revenues by that %


May I suggest that you visit the ventracor website and see the information released to the market and then at least you can make an informed decision. Other than that, ram away.

I have looked at their website.
Do you realize that it is expensed instead of being capitalized under PP&E?

Did you realize that 30 pages odd (out of 88) of the Annual report deals with compensation structures for the directors and executives.
Two pages deal with the strategy of research, marketing etc.
That is a disgrace.
VCR paid $719,000.00 to get rid of Spooner, oops, no, you the shareholder paid.

Knob


I agree, the research is still early days and is not very statistically significantly however it is very promising.

It is not early days. This has been a very long process, and very expensive.
There is no statistical significance whatsoever.


However, the research has been progressing for some years now and appears to be suceeding.

How do you measure success.
22 patients based on a minimum follow up period of 3yrs.
Death rate = 4.5%
Technological failure (equipment) = 100%
Adverse effects (complications) = 22%


You assume that human behaviour will improve and preventative behaviour can be obtained. I'm sure you have trouble getting patients to do weight training.

Behavioural modification;
The eternal failing of the human race. The first relevant point made.
There have been studies performed, I shall have a look when I have some time and see if the numbers support your assertion.


Not all disease is slowly progressive, heart damage can occur suddenly due to viruses, blockages etc.
I therefore disagree that there is not a market for this product.

See previous answer, but in a *blockage* this device is useless.
The applicability of the device is very causal dependant, simply a diagnosis of CHF means very little in isolation.

This stock is a speculative proposition.
It must be trade managed with speculative tools viz. technical analysis.
On a Fundamental basis, this is just not a valid selection.

jog on
d998

[Knobby22]

I agree with you duc, that on a fundamental investment principles this investment does not pass muster.

The roadblock I can foresee that makes this company such a difficult investment is that the device Ventracor sells is a third generation device and a fourth generation, which it's competitors are working on, is required. The fourth generation device does not require cables exiting the body and takes into account other advances.

The long process, especially in the US, means that the existing device will be redundant when it is approved. Then there will be a fight for a small number of patients to get the next lot of trials operating against many competitors, some with large amounts of money to draw on. It is therefore very important that Ventracor becomes the preferred provider with it's present product in Europe so that it can create the cashflow and the reputation to give it an advantage e.g. like Cochlear.

Too many things must go right. Not only have the company survive but the present dilution of shareholders must stop. I personally doubt Ventracor will achieve this, even if they succeed long term. If I was the Ventracor CEO, I would be looking to merge with a powerful competitor to protect shareholders interests.

Duc, I enjoy debate as much as the next person. Your somewhat vitreolic initial comments raised my hackles. You have however helped me to crystallise my thought on this company and for that I thank you. Now if you can just sound a little less like Sideshow Bob on a murder spree...

[Duckman#72]

Research hospitals and doctors are paid by VCR vast sums of money to perform the research.............who did you think paid for it, or did you just think doctors and hospitals were altruistic?

That in of itself is a bias, and cannot be discounted within a statistical analysis, therefore the research methodology must be of a very high standard to show that these and other biases have been controlled, allowed for within the research design.

Quick question Duc - I don't know anything about Ventracor but aren't the problems you highlight concerning research bias and statistical samples the same across the board for all cutting edge medical research? When it all comes down to it you are dealing with :

a) People who are developing a product and want it to work
b) People who are terminally ill

Regards
Duckman

[ducati916]

Knob


Duc, I enjoy debate as much as the next person. Your somewhat vitreolic initial comments raised my hackles. You have however helped me to crystallise my thought on this company and for that I thank you. Now if you can just sound a little less like Sideshow Bob on a murder spree...

Someone has to be the bad guy. I'm the man for the job!


Duck


Quick question Duc - I don't know anything about Ventracor but aren't the problems you highlight concerning research bias and statistical samples the same across the board for all cutting edge medical research?

Yes they are.
And when they are done badly, or fudged, you have problems.
Look at MERCK and VIOXX in the US.
Bad research, bad conclusions, bad outcome.

The difference is that MRK has possibly adequate financial strength to survive
VCR is a financial mess. Add to that all the aforementioned problems, and is this really where you want your cash?

jog on
d998

[visual]

So Duc,
your problem with vcr is that its a start up company and not an established company like Merck ect... therefore unable to take a hit like a moneyed Merck.

I would think then that vcr has to be very careful about dotting its I and crossing its Ts so that it doesnt end up in the scrap heap.So far I think that its done well,yes it takes a lot of money but in the end the product works better than expected and thats what all these trials are all about,doubt whether anyone is going to rush vcr through whatever channel it has to go through ,unlike Merck who could supposedly afford to.

[spottygoose]

Excerpt from FN Arena 11/4/06:

"VCR is rated as a buy with a price target of $1.64. The company's US feasibility trial recruitment is expected to be finished within 4 weeks. In addition, the company's rights issue closes on 11/4/06."

[BraceFace]

I got burned on this one when somebody told me it would be the next Cochlear.
Maybe it will, but bugger me, it's got a long way to go.
Why take such a huge punt on this kind of technology when other sectors of the market are going ballistic??

:horse: :band :horse:

[Rafa]

placement closed heavily over subscribed...

a few people still believe in this stock...!

[ducati916]

In regards to the placement, just further dilution of existing shareholders equity............and ever larger profits required to provide a return.

Looks as if the market is not overly impressed with this horrid little business.

jog on
d998

[visual]

vcr, back on track for a september launch. :p:

[visual]

hmmmmmmmmmm,
Intelligent investor,has just compared vcr with coh,
but instead of comparing the two compaines at the same stage they are comparing coh as from now and vcr starting out,you`d think they would`ve done the comparison from when coh started out.

After all ,that would`ve made more sense.Glad my subscription is running out,because now I know that I`ve wasted my money,great experts!

[Magdoran]

Late in 2003 I watched the Duc make his first post on another site about VCR when it was being heavily ramped while it was trending down from the heady high of $3.19, and moved down to the low $2.00 range.

Duc actually spent a lot of time researching his arguments and backing them up with facts, which in the end the VCR “rampers” wouldn’t counter. A lot of people were duped by the rampers making the same old arguments echoing the propaganda being dished out by VCR’s marketing arms; and they lost significant amounts of money based on the never ending promises of huge and growing world markets made up of elderly patients just queuing up to be saved by this “amazing new technology”.

It is now mid 2006, not late 2003, and we’re still waiting, only to see the company is still issuing new share offers, diluting the existing share holdings yet again. As for the previous CEO, he bailed when he saw the writing on the wall.

I believe the Duc is passionate and sincere about his arguments, and feels a moral obligation to offer the opposing viewpoint from those who post optimistically and, respectfully, naively about VCR. I share this sentiment, and would like to stand firmly in support of the Duc’s well argued and researched case. I have read all his arguments, and find them persuasive over the years. Anyone that knows me from previous incarnations on other sites knows that in these issues I am an ardent sceptic and do not make this kind of statement lightly.


Regards,



Magdoran

[visual]

Mag,
I dont know why you or Duc, are still bothering then.
Obviously you cant save everyone so why dont you concentrate on issues that will garner you much better success.

You both claim that vcr is a dud yet you keep yourselves well informed. Surely it cant be because you care about the rest of us so much.So what is it?
Hope you`re not calling me a ramper or spammer,that I would find extremely offensive and under those circumstances I would expect Joe to take action and ban me. Or caution you.

[Magdoran]

Hello Visual,


Even though we have not conversed before, I have known your posts to be piquant and well thought out.

If you had followed my posts and the Duc’s posts on other sites over the years, you would know that the Duc and I (amongst many others) have had some wide ranging debates on a variety of issues where we held opposing viewpoints, and sometimes came to agreements, much like any discussion.

On this issue, however, I saw this thread in passing today, and felt that since you seemed to think he was insincere in your previous post, that he deserved some support on this issue since I do think that his motives are sincere despite his argumentative tone. As for your passing comment about being informed, it isn’t hard when you are a professional, and it is your business to keep abreast of a range of market information.

I also feel a moral obligation whenever I see VCR to support cautionary posts to alert newer investors and traders to the risks involved. I personally know of several investors that lost thousands of dollars in the past based on the same old hype VCR put out back in 2003 onwards.

Surely Visual you are not opposed to me expressing my opinion on this thread simply because I hold an alternative viewpoint to you, are you?

By the way, I did not say VCR was a dud. I object to the way the information is disseminated in a way that does not tell the whole story, and suggest that newer investors should be cautioned as to the speculative nature of the stock. Surely it is reasonable that less informed investors might be given the opportunity to view a range of opinions, or are you suggesting that this is a thread reserved for pro VCR posters only?

Now, what concerns me Visual is the hostile tone you have adopted with me for posting an opinion. Now why is that? Also, you jump to the conclusion that I’m accusing you of ramping, which if you read my post I clearly have not. I referred to the situation in the past. Then you threaten me with some kind of caution for expressing my opinion. Curious. Why the angst at this personal level?

It is precisely this kind of reaction that concerns me about objectivity in posts about a stock that has had such a chequered history – even “BraceFace” makes a comment along these lines.

What I wonder about is your motives for such outright hostility right from the word go. Is your outburst based on a long term personal issue with me, or perhaps you just like to shoot the messenger? I also object to your insinuation that there is some sinister motive for “caring about other investors” – some of us Visual are actually moral, and feel very strongly about investors being misled (especially if people close to them had been affected). Now, I’ve said my piece, I will leave it there. I really don’t like to get involved in “shooting wars”, but I will make an exception and take a stance on principle when required as I have done here.


Regards


Magdoran

[visual]

Late in 2003 I watched the Duc make his first post on another site about VCR when it was being heavily ramped while it was trending down from the heady high of $3.19, and moved down to the low $2.00 range.

Duc actually spent a lot of time researching his arguments and backing them up with facts, which in the end the VCR “rampers” wouldn’t counter. A lot of people were duped by the rampers making the same old arguments echoing the propaganda being dished out by VCR’s marketing arms; and they lost significant amounts of money based on the never ending promises of huge and growing world markets made up of elderly patients just queuing up to be saved by this “amazing new technology”.

It is now mid 2006, not late 2003, and we’re still waiting, only to see the company is still issuing new share offers, diluting the existing share holdings yet again. As for the previous CEO, he bailed when he saw the writing on the wall.

I believe the Duc is passionate and sincere about his arguments, and feels a moral obligation to offer the opposing viewpoint from those who post optimistically and, respectfully, naively about VCR. I share this sentiment, and would like to stand firmly in support of the Duc’s well argued and researched case. I have read all his arguments, and find them persuasive over the years. Anyone that knows me from previous incarnations on other sites knows that in these issues I am an ardent sceptic and do not make this kind of statement lightly.


Regards,



Magdoran

Mag,
the tone of your post above,leaves very little doubt as to the opinion you are trying to convey. I really dont know who you are so for you to assume that I know you and am perhaps making a personal statement about you is highly paranoid. If you read my other posts on this thread you will see that I am fully aware that this stock is speculative,and never at any stage have I even sounded like someone who would ever recommend it to anyone else. As for knowing you from other sites,which? I dont go to other sites,more computer illiteracy than not wanting to. So yes I think I`m entitled to ask,why do you and Duc spend so much time researching this stock if you are not interested yourself?

[Magdoran]

Visual,

I have already answered your questions; please re read my last post. You did not do me the courtesy of answering any of my questions. Maybe you should reconsider the appropriateness of your abrupt outburst and unwarranted hostility.

Magdoran

[visual]

Mag,

honestly what is it that you are asking?

anyway,after further consideration,dont care.
Bye.

[stockmaster]

VCR has been going for the past 10 months, however it seems the downward trend might have stopped.

"We see European market sales commencing in FY07 and US market sales (for the relatively limited bridge-to-transplant indication) starting in FY10. We expect losses to be incurred until FY10, with the company turning its first profit in FY11.
Recommendation -12m: $1.00" By Aegis.

I personally believes the share is facing north for the next couple of months or as least weeks. It seems the graph for the past 2 months is supporting my argument! :2twocents .

[samsterchan]

VCR looking great again.....
check this good announcement out

http://www.medicalnewstoday.com/medicalnews.php?newsid=46544

At the rate this goes, it will hit $1 in the next few few months.
Wait for the next market sensitive announcements - more hospitals are coming on board ! Technical analysis points to it breaching the $0.93 cents mark - today it already hit that and went as high as 0.935.

This stock is on the way up again !
Support an Aussie manufacturer that is doing a great cause for medical advancement !

[Knobby22]

I wish you all luck, I would love to see VCR succeed.

[saichuen]

good luck to those who is holding. i've previously hold this stock and decided to exit with a lost so that i can put my money into other stocks that may be returning more at the moment (like commodities? :D)

i reckon the problem with this stock (in my opinion) is that the people who is interested in it is probably expecting it to be the next cochlear???

my 2cents worth...

cheers!

[samsterchan]

Look at this go - I reckon this is going to end at close to the 93 cents mark.

It's on the way up again right this moment !

[samsterchan]

Take a look at the following attachment

http://staging.fusefarm.com.au/ventracor/news/news_content.asp

View the video clip - bound to get your heart pumping !

More interest than ever before in this stock. The preliminary results to be released in Spain this week will be sure to increase the market awareness and share price of this stock !


VCR - National TV coverage - 06 April 06
Thursday April 6th, 2006

Australian Broadcasting Corporation
Artificial heart trial results promising

VIEW VIDEO CLIP


TV PROGRAM TRANSCRIPT

HOST KERRY O'BRIEN: Two years ago we looked at an Australian invention undergoing trials to help alleviate the critical predicament facing people who need a heart transplant. Worldwide, only about 3,000 heart transplants are performed each year, while it's estimated that between 100,000 and 200,000 people need one. One alternative that's been tested by cardiac specialists at Melbourne's Alfred Hospital is an Australian-invented mechanical heart.

Since the trial began the artificial heart has been implanted in more than 50 patients around the world and the preliminary results to be presented at a conference in Spain this week, show survival rates equivalent to heart transplants.

The artificial heart is particularly useful as a lifeline for patients who are waiting for a transplant or to extend the lives of those who are too old to be eligible for transplant. Natasha Johnson reports.

NATASHA JOHNSON: Wandering around Victoria's National Gallery, 77-year-old Gerry Levine is very much alive, even though his heart effectively stopped working more than two years ago.

MARIE PARKINSON-LEVINE: It's totally unbelievable. He could hardly walk a few steps just before he had the operation and he looked so pallid and so sick and when I look at him now and he's like 2.5 years older, basically, it's unbelievable. He's getting younger. Whereas, we mortals are getting older.

NATASHA JOHNSON: Two years and four months post implant, Gerry Levine is the longest surviving recipient of an Australian invented artificial heart. The Ventr-Assist device is implanted under the abdominal wall under the ribs and hooked up to the failing heart. A drive line protruding through the patient's stomach is connected to a portable battery pack. Unlike the human heart that contracts, the mechanical version has a continuously spinning rotor ensuring a constant flow of blood and patients therefore have no pulse. What's it like not having a pulse?

GERRY LEVINE: (Laughs).

MARIE PARKINSON-LEVINE: Funny sometimes.

GERRY LEVINE: Funny sometimes. I do carry a little identity disk which says I have to be taken back to the Alfred if there's an emergency and an instruction book which is normally carried in the trolley. It does say don't assume that because there's no pulse the patient is dead. (Laughs).

NATASHA JOHNSON: We first met Gerry Levine as he and a handful of other elderly patients agreed to take part in the first human trial of the Ventr-Assist device at the Alfred Hospital in Melbourne.

PROFESSOR DON ESMORE, ALFRED HOSPITAL: He's brave and he's been shown resolve and that's why he's done well.

NATASHA JOHNSON: Surgeon Don Esmore and the Alfred team has pioneered use of the device which costs $100,000. Three years on it's now been implanted into more than 50 critically ill patients worldwide.

PROFESSOR DON ESMORE: This pump is for people who've had the full gamut of treatment for heart failure. They have no other option either surgically or medically. They are functioning probably 10 per cent of normal with both a poor life expectancy and a very poor quality of life.

NATASHA JOHNSON: In such a seriously ill population there have been deaths, but the latest trial results are showing good survival rates.

PROFESSOR DON ESMORE: The survival rate at one year currently for the trial is 82% and the world figure for heart transplantation is around 80%. At one year if your Ventr-Assist is put in, your chance of living a year are the same as a heart transplant and currently we are looking at a 2-year survival which would appear to be around the 60% mark. Heart transplants are maybe a bit better than that, maybe 70 or 75% but we're talking about evolving technology.

NATASHA JOHNSON: The candidates are either over 65s like Gerry Levine who are too old or sick to qualify for a heart transplant or younger patients like 17-year-old Kim Cowcher who are trying to stay alive long enough for a donor heart to become available. In an unlucky run of illness Kim Cowcher suffered non-Hodgkins lymphoma, a paralysing auto-immune disease and then heart failure from her chemotherapy. Last July she fell into a coma and her mother was told her only hope of survival was the artificial heart which was really only designed for adults.

SHARON NICHOLSON: It was very scary, but given the fact there was no other options, we don't have a choice, it is either she turn the machine off or try this. So when you are faced with that, there's no decision to make.

KIM COWCHER: I woke up on my 17th birthday out of my coma and told it was two weeks after my fly back and I'm like, "No, it's the next day." And I'm told "No, Kim it's two weeks later". It was my birthday and they were explaining to me I'm on this machine and you can feel it whirring and I felt all of these things in your stomach and you've got a big machine there and a cord. They said, "We don't know how you'll go on this." I was sitting there thinking, "Am I going to live or die?" They couldn't give you a direct answer.

NATASHA JOHNSON: Kim Cowcher is the youngest Australian to receive the artificial heart and while she requires a carer 24 hours a day and ongoing hospital monitoring, she can enjoy time out with her family and continue her schooling.

KIM COWCHER: I thought it was a gutter ball.

NATASHA JOHNSON: But she and her mum are still getting used to her tethered existence to the power pack and its batteries which need changing every three to four hours.

KIM COWCHER: It is like having a little friend that's stuck to your pocket. Every 2 seconds, every time you get up to go to the toilet get up to get a drink you've got to take your friend with you. It's very stressful at times. I have got up once and forgot it and it came flying back and hit the wall. That was a bit funny but I didn't hurt myself.

SHARON NICHOLSON: I'm scared a lot of times you wake up in the morning and I instantly listen for the alarm or wake up through the might and think is it alarming. It beeps like a truck backing and if I hear that I yell out, "Kimberley!" She says, "It's not me."

MARIE PARKINSON-LEVINE: There's a plug down there. We can plug you in alright. That was easier than I thought.

NATASHA JOHNSON: While they have plenty of backup batteries, Gerry Levine and wife Marie prefer to plug in whenever you can and wherever they can.

MARIE PARKINSON-LEVINE: ...and your reserve is full, so no problems.

NATASHA JOHNSON: As Gerry Levine and Kim Cowcher cherish the days they might not have otherwise seen, a new trial of the Ventr-Assist is being planned with the hope that current survival rates can ultimately be pushed out to five years.

GERRY LEVINE: I'm quite happy it should go on for as long as possible.

KIM COWCHER: Oh, yes! I feel normal. I don't feel there's something wrong with me because I'm with my family and we're all laughing and smiling and having fun, rather than sitting around a hospital bed having that time bomb tick off, wondering is it time, isn't it time?
O’BRIEN: Natasha Johnson with that story of hope for young and old.

[Lucky_Country]

VCR next 6 months this one will be a winner after european approval

[BraceFace]

VCR next 6 months this one will be a winner after european approval

I'd have to see it to believe it.
This is a high risk punt.

Once bitten, twice shy!

[Morgan]

Just be careful with this one.
My Ventracor story:
I bought in many years ago for $1.30 because I believed in the fundamentals after seeing the technology featured on ABCs "Catalyst".
Price rocketed to $3.76 within weeks and I thought I was on to a winner.
However then began the slow downtrend which if you look back on the long term chart you will see.
Sold out in June this year for a loss (to offset capital gains) as I couldn't take the pain any longer. Note how the price only goes up after the end of the financial year then resumes its favourite downtrend.
The reality is that inventions such as this take an excruciatingly long time to get to market due to the many, many regulatory hoops that must be jumped through. Also big cash burn by the company.
In addition there are competitors (eg Heartware), fights over patents, plus the chance that by the time product is approved someone else will be onto a new and better technology.
Yes, the fundamentals are still there, but that doesn't always mean the share price will act accordingly. I hoped for years that this would be the next Cochlear- so once again, be careful if this is what you are expecting.

[Lucky_Country]

All stocks have there risk just ask westpoint investors but VCR has its risk but positives outweigh the negatives and Eurpoean approval is almost there with a high implant sucess rate

[Knobby22]

Did anyone see the 7:30 Report last night?

It finished with a lovely story. Anyone who follows this stock will probably remember the young adult girl (around 18) who was put on the Ventra - assist device as she got some sort of heart damage caused by a virus to keep her alive. I felt so sorry for her as the device really is a bit archaic in reality and she had to walk around with a battery pack and you know infection could kill her.

Anyway, after a year her heart recovered! They removed the device and she is now healthy. Even if this company goes nowhere at least the investors will know they have made a difference.

Trials are on worldwide but there are so many competitors. It may one day be a winner but I am not inclined to own any at this stage.

K

[nioka]

Did anyone see the 7:30 Report last night?

It finished with a lovely story. Anyone who follows this stock will probably remember the young adult girl (around 18) who was put on the Ventra - assist device as she got some sort of heart damage caused by a virus to keep her alive. I felt so sorry for her as the device really is a bit archaic in reality and she had to walk around with a battery pack and you know infection could kill her.

Anyway, after a year her heart recovered! They removed the device and she is now healthy. Even if this company goes nowhere at least the investors will know they have made a difference.

Trials are on worldwide but there are so many competitors. It may one day be a winner but I am not inclined to own any at this stage.

K
I have lost more on this stock than any other. Now I don't feel so bad.I did keep 1000 shares as a momento.

[Sultan of Swing]

I have lost more on this stock than any other. Now I don't feel so bad.I did keep 1000 shares as a momento.

That SORTA makes me feel better although I do feel bad for you.

I did a complete round trip. Bought at 35 cents about 6 years ago, sold at 55 cents, rebought at 68 cents, held all the way up to $3.81 and down again, then sold about 3 months ago at 66 cents. :rolleyes:

AAUUGGHHHHHHH!!!!

I didn't know about stop-losses then but sure learned quick. I think it's commonly referred to as greed :p: .

Hmmmm, i could think of all the 'what ifs' all day.

:cool:

[nioka]

I didn't know about stop-losses then but sure learned quick. I think it's commonly referred to as greed :p:

:cool:
I don't believe in stop losses. Each day I look at the price and check the stock and decide if it worth holding at it's current price. If it is I hold if not then I sell. Most times it works, that time it did not. I bought my first at 35c more at 72c then more at $2.25 More at $2.70 then bang and I held on too long. Got out at $1.25

[petal]

VCR continues a steady rise on high volume finishing at 99.5 cents.

[visual]

Actually it finished 1.035.

[ducati916]

Total revenue for 2005 was $2.7million composed of "interest" earned on cash balances.

The net loss was a further $27million.
Total earnings of Directors = $1.16million or 4.3% of the total loss.
Total earnings of executives = 1.59million or 5.9% of the loss
This doesn't even include options & performance bonuses.

Revenues;
These fell in 2005.
Why?
Because as the cash is spent, so interest payments fall.

Total accumulated losses.
A staggering $84.7million.
Total funds contributed via shareholders = $123.0million

This company as an "investment" is of the most speculative nature. It has no earnings, burns cash at an unbelievable rate, and has no concrete idea of when if ever, earnings will appear.

As if that was not enough, the quality of the medical research is very low.
Patient numbers, recruited into the trials are so low as to provide zero statistical significance. The patient follow-up is too short.

The actual technology is barbaric.
We are talking about an open wound, that is vulnerable to opportunistic infection. The technology failed, and had to be placed on recall. That no patients died, may be down to sheer luck, but then again we'll never know, as the patient numbers were just so low.

With the increasing advances within stem-cell treatments, this is a real non-starter. CHF is an easily diagnosed, slow progressing condition, and very treatable in early stages. The potential monetization of this product will be fraught with difficulty.

jog on
d998

This is just one of those really horrible stocks that should be avoided like the plague, unless you know absolutely nothing about it, and play it as a pure speculation.

jog on
d998

[visual]

This is just one of those really horrible stocks that should be avoided like the plague, unless you know absolutely nothing about it, and play it as a pure speculation.

jog on
d998

Oh Duc,
good to see that everything is still as it should be.LOL.
Keep pushing that barrel,won`t you.
This technology is keeping people alive ,not only that it also has benefits that they didn`t expect ,like repairing the heart muscle,but we`ve been down that road already,keep it up,Duc.

[nautilus]

Made a tidy gain of 4% today, just closed it.

Would have been a 7% gain if not of Etrade's blunder.

My contract note wasn't sent to St George Margin Lending and I can't sell at the high today. Send my order to sell at $1.19 but rejected with a message saying I don't currently hold any stock.

Etrade has been giving me headache lately. :mad:

[LifeisShort]

In the long run you can probably make more cash by getting a stockbroker to immediately place an order for you. Even though it might cost you more for brokerage but there are other benefits...such as research etc.

Thats unless you are only punting with $500 on every trade

[PhoenixXx]

This share is doing pretty well lately. Any idea what is the current support level?

[JellySausage]

Couple of interesting announcements out yesterday.

No budge in the price yet... keeping an eye on it anyway.

[PhoenixXx]

Oh no...dropped below $1.00 and today looks pretty bad...

[PhoenixXx]

I gave up on this, sold all. But I do hope this share can at least hold above 95c.

[drmb]

I gave up on this, sold all. But I do hope this share can at least hold above 95c.

Can anyone explain the vcr big red candle? Is this insider trading and is there something bad we don't know about? Closed 4pm 0.935, down 0.065. I did hear "there was a "suck down" effect for the recipient whereby the ventricle will collapse temporarily if the pump's revs are too high, or the patient does not have enough blood volume. If the pump isnt getting any blood it apparently just keeps spinning with no cardiac output" Is this true? Does anyone know if Ventracor has commented on this issu, if it is an issue? Does anyone know more? Doesn't seem to have been a reverse speeding ticket and no company announcement to precipitate this dummy spit. I hold but not for longer if there are problems.

[savtin]

Hi all you VCR faithful,

VCR - potential cash flow for this calender year.

If we assume that the trials in the US begin (shortly) and we use the following data from previous announcements or their prospectus - you get the following cashflow from revenues derived in the US : -

1. BTT - total implants 100 over 18 months ----------say 50 this year.

2. DT - total implants 240 0ver 24 months ----------say 100 this year.

Now note that they will have 20 - 25 centers implanting and that the issue regarding patients being discharged home has been sorted....They also mentioned something about faster recruitment for the DT................i don't have a clue as to how they will speed it up.........................

..so before everyone starts complaining that VCR took 1.5 years to complete 10 patients and how the hell are they going to complete 150 on one year.............well you have to just consider that they have been through the hard part (initiating the trials) ....and with 20-25 centers on line that would mean something like 1 person every 1.5 months at each center,,,,,,not overly difficult you would think.

That would then give us $140K x 150 = $21 million

As for Europe they hoped to complete 100 patients over 2 years for the BRACE study so add 50 implants at $100K (i am assuming reinbursments are less for europe and not all are being reimbursed) x 50% = $2.5 Million.

Now add SALES of the device to Europe...............we know they have 6 centers operating in Europe............UK, Norway, two in FRANCE, Germany and can't think of the other at moment (maybe someone can help me out there)................if they sold say 10 to each then we have another 60 at $100K then you could have another $6million. Remember 10 is a guess ....it could be 1 or 100 i don't know.....

That would make it 260 devices over one year and we know for a fact that they can produce 50 per month at moment so 260 is less that their current capacity.

So all in all a total of $29.5 Million Revenue..........................we know they are spending up to $30 million over a year and they would have cash as of start of 2007 of approximatley say $52Million (JUNE 2006) less $20 million (second half of 2006).= $30 million.

So all in all if they play it right they could generate enough revenue to cancel out their expenses for the year.......and retain say $20- 30million in cash for the following year and so on.............. until VCR can stand on its two feet without needing further cash injections..........at worst if they need any further funds down the track it shouldn't be too much and hopefully the price is higher....................

You can now feel free to shoot me down as being OVERLY optimistic but hey the cup is always half full for me...............except when VCR drops 6.5 cents. in one day.

GO VCR


regards
savtin

[LifeisShort]

Its a typical biotech stock but in a much adavanced stage than others. I think they are close to breaking through and shedding the day traders favourite stock. There has been millions of dollars poured into this stock by shareholders so its no wonder it goes up and down like a yoyo. It needs those revenues and a reduction in cashburn v revenue ratio. Once that under control should be no more dilution and iif company becaomes succesful who knows where it might end up? I'm a long term holder and bullish on its technology and prospects

[drmb]

Hi all you VCR faithful, VCR - potential cash flow for this calender year.(etc.) GO VCR regards savtin
Looks even better if you add in 2.8 mil "SYDNEY, Australia 23 January 2007: Ventracor (ASX: VCR) today announced the award of a $2.8 million Commercial Ready Grant from the Australian Federal Government to fund further development of the VentrAssist™ left ventricular assist device (LVAD)."

[savtin]

This should be great tonight..........have your seats glued to the set.

Interview with CEO Peter Crosby will air live tonight on Sky News Business from 8:30 pm Sydney time.



You can view on FOXTEL (digital 601, analogue 34), AUSTAR (channel 601) or OPTUS (DIGITAL 601, ANALOGUE 48) or podcast http://www.skynews.com.au/ondemand/

GO VCR

[Riesling]

breakout!

[JellySausage]

I saw that... wth!?

Hopefully it keeps going strong... I jumped in a second before the dive a few weeks ago and am ready to move on ;)

[savtin]

What is with this Almighty FDA anyway...........are they still reviewing the data for the VCR device to determine in their own mind that it works................you would have thought it was a no brainer a mere formality to review the data and come to the conclusion that the European body came to and let the device begin the REAL trials.....it's crazy.............the FDA has had VCR in PRE-TRIALS since Aug 2005 and now we are in March 2007 and yes we are still in feasibilty mode.............ITS %$^$ crazy.................i mean the FDA can keep VCR in holding mode indefinatley....................... if they have an issue with the devise then they should come out and say so or else let them begin...................................

Let us all hope that VCR can atleast pool the data from the US feasibility trial because then we would have already completed 30 from the 140 total.........

on the 14th FEb VCR had completed 90 mI would have thought one month later that 100 patients would be complete and we'll get an announcement on reaching that figure??????

I guess any NEWS from VCR now would be good now.....................ESPECIALLY SOME CASH FROM SALES IN EUROPE....THAT WILL GET THE HEARTBEAT GOING......MAYBE EVEN INTEREST THE WALLETS OF THE BIG FUNDIES ................FINALLY.

[Jus]

Mate, I understand how you're feeling. It's rather frustrating at times especially looking at other stocks/indexes going north. That's typical VCR and bio/pharmaceutical stocks. On the other hand, we should give management some credits for putting everything in place in order to fast track the approval process.

Compared CCE, also excellent but simpler product, well known founder Dr. Fiona Wood sp keeps getting hammered due to poor management, delays, no cash, low sales etc etc.. lots of excuses...

To all VCR supporters, we've come this far and we all know the upside (once its approved and generate sales, it will make COH looks like nothing)

My opinion: Hold, hold, hold and accumulate.

[surfingman]

There are some new Announcements for the 13th check them out a new trail approval in the US to possibly fast track production.

[Jus]

Just a reminder, Chief Executive Officer Peter Crosby will present at the 27th annual Cowen and Company Healthcare Conference on 14 March at 9:30am US Eastern Time (01:30am Sydney Thursday 15 March). The conference will be held at The Marriott Copley Place Boston 12 - 15 March 2007.

Further info visit www.ventracor.com For information about Cowen and Company visit: www.cowen.com

This is our chance to win some american investors.

[JellySausage]

~5% jump today so far.

Quite a large jump in volume. 1.5 mil today so far compared to 250k avg.

Announcement soon?

[savtin]

Hi all,
Hope you are all having a lovely break.

Back to speculation mood....i was wondering the otherday what will it need to break the $1.20 resistance barrier for this stock and I came up with the following possibilities(mind you the list it is not exhaustive and someone may want to add anything I missed): -

1. NO news. Technical action / momentum.
2. Green light to begin the DT trial.
3. TGA approval in Australia.
4. News that Directors buying.
5. TETS product released to market.
6. News of a SALES order from a European Country
7. Institution taking stake (although i feel that in order for this to happen the price would have been driven up over $1.20 when the announcement comes through so I was hesitant on putting this on the list.....and for the institution to buy in will probably rely on news items from items 2. to 6. bove.)
7. News that Implanting centers in Europe expanding at a rapid rate.

8. Any news that indicates that the product is being implanted in the BTT trial at a rapid pace.


My personal opinion is that item 2. and then with item 1. will be enough to get us over the line.

Cheers all

Kind regards Savtin

GO VCR...............the pieces are slowly falling into place.

[Bazmate]

I'm thinking that technical momentum is what will take us convincingly over $1 in the near term.
I'd be surprised if European sales are not announced soon as the hint in the last investor update was that now with CE mark approval more of these (European implants) will contribute to revenue.

I'm still in with all the beaten and battered long standing shareholders of this puppy... Lets see some action

[Bazmate]

Who are these institutional "sophisticated" investors that can request a share placement?

Surely more shares on the market just dilutes our shares even further and will push the share price down again, or are these institutional investors likely to generate more interest in the Ventrassist and give us a boost.

Methinks I've held these for too long with no reward, but as always they show so much potential....

[nioka]

Who are these institutional "sophisticated" investors that can request a share placement?

Surely more shares on the market just dilutes our shares even further and will push the share price down again, or are these institutional investors likely to generate more interest in the Ventrassist and give us a boost.

Methinks I've held these for too long with no reward, but as always they show so much potential....

I gave up on these a long time ago. I was in early but fell into the trap of increasing my holding at $2.25 along with a lot of other true believers in the product. They seem to prefer to raise funds at discount prices to institutions which as you say dilutes the share value as the market cap does not increase. They have all their eggs in one basket making them high risk to my way of thinking.

[jammin]

I gave up on these a long time ago. I was in early but fell into the trap of increasing my holding at $2.25 along with a lot of other true believers in the product. They seem to prefer to raise funds at discount prices to institutions which as you say dilutes the share value as the market cap does not increase.
I was considering the "opportunity" to increase my holding, which is trading at a small discount to my purchase price of $1.72, but when the SP closed today below the discounted opportunity of $0.80 I kind of lost interest. What now interests me is who is selling at less than $0.80. Is it the instos getting out already and/or believers like nioka who are sick of the share value dilution.
It cannot bode well for VCR in their bid to raise more funds.

[drmb]

I was considering the "opportunity" to increase my holding, which is trading at a small discount to my purchase price of $1.72, but when the SP closed today below the discounted opportunity of $0.80 I kind of lost interest. What now interests me is who is selling at less than $0.80. Is it the instos getting out already and/or believers like nioka who are sick of the share value dilution. It cannot bode well for VCR in their bid to raise more funds.
I hold a small parcel but have been disappointed :banghead: for a long time with the sp progress. Seems to me the sp is down at the levels when it was first launched, when it had nothing but a hope and expectation of greater things. Yet it now has TGA etc approvals, many devices sucessfully implanted, etc

Mystery to me and all the while 4th generation devices are creeping up on it.

Maybe lack of communication - I know I have tried emailing vcr a few times but never ever get a response.

[visual]

lovely,
vcr, up 12% on a blood bath day,obviously some news in the pipe works,this always seems to be the give away sign for vcr.And no sign of insider trading.cough cough.

[drmb]

lovely,
vcr, up 12% on a blood bath day,obviously some news in the pipe works,this always seems to be the give away sign for vcr.And no sign of insider trading.cough cough.

The buzz on HC is VCR seem to be actively recruting for specialist positions but no mention of this on their website. www.seek.com.au and search on Ventracor

[Lucky_Country]

Well VCR having a bounce vastly oversold imo.
Revenues growing DT news imminent wider acceptance of product with more centre coming onstream dare I say it is this the turning point.
Someone surely casting an eye over VCR for a takeover would like too see a chanbge in substanstial holding notice go through and see instos taking a position if they already havent with these bargin prices.

[Magdoran]

Well VCR having a bounce vastly oversold imo.
Revenues growing DT news imminent wider acceptance of product with more centre coming onstream dare I say it is this the turning point.
Someone surely casting an eye over VCR for a takeover would like too see a chanbge in substanstial holding notice go through and see instos taking a position if they already havent with these bargin prices.Right, just like Rocky and Bullwinkle, “this time for surrrrreeee!” –

“Quick, quick, buy it by the truck load, you’re going to make billions and quadzillions…” - translation – please please please buy and push the price up to where I bought it so I can bail out of this dog at break even.

I’d be interested to see Ducati’s view on this…

Respectfully this stock is SPECULATIVE, and has been in a downtrend since August 2003.

I think that the amount of “pending wonder” stories I’ve read on this stock is rapidly approaching infinity over the years.

When has this stock turned a positive year’s return on investment and paid a dividend, or not recorded a loss? Are you saying this is a growth stock???

Are there any years this stock has not been significantly diluted with new share placements?

The “it’s coming” line has been run by management, rampers, and hopefuls who are in love with this stock for 4 years now.

Certainly the pattern in the stock may be a bit like an ending diagonal technically, but it will be a long time even if this actually moves into any kind of uptrend for this stock based on the pattern I can see. Sure it may even do its pattern of rallying up hard, only to be sold back down into the floor. What’s different about it this time?

Fundamentally, let’s have some compelling evidence presented, and arguments that convince Ducati who did considerable research on VCR and published his detailed views which I still subscribe to 4 years later, starting from 2003 when I witnessed some polemics on another site, and the VCR rampers charlatans and worshippers all duped hundreds of investors into investing their money into VCR at the top, and those that are still in the stock have lost the majority of their money as the share value has been diluted like “blood into water”.

I remain unconvinced. Please someone put up a convincing in depth well constructed argument as to why anything has changed with facts, or shut up. If you can convince Ducati then I might reconsider. If not, please, end this repetition of the “this time for sure” type of post.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hi Mags I hope things are well.:)

.... cheap, on sale, discounted, a bargain, undervalued, oversold, etc. etc. :D
I enjoyed your comments and await Ducs reply.

I like shopping for discounts in SHOPS. Cheap BOOKS; love them.

Regards
Snake

[ducati916]

Mag's

Indeed that was a bitter and acrimonius battle that resulted in the entire site being shut-down for a couple of days under the threat of legal action from "The Rock"

To be honest I haven't looked at VCR for quite some time. It may well be time to revisit this old friend.

jog on
d998

[nioka]

To be honest I haven't looked at VCR for quite some time. It may well be time to revisit this old friend.

To be honest I have and I still do not look at it as an old friend or as something to get excited about. I couldn't see the bounce either only a small blip.

[ducati916]

VCR.............hideous as ever!

The analysis is on my blog for any interested.
Need 100 characters.

jog on
d998

[drmb]

VCR.............hideous as ever! The analysis is on my blog for any interested. Need 100 characters. jog on d998

"Hideous" may be too kind a word after today's dump! Dog status in my books confirmed, glad I am out now but it is sad to see this dive to 0.56 down -0.03(-5%) on vol 2.5 mil. 52 weeks ago was 1.195. Have to go back more than 6 years to find this low, thus no historical support lines, and could free fall again. Was destined supposedly for Aussie icon status, a la Cochlear when it started in the Aust Hearing Centre in Chatswood, but now destined for history books it would seem. Care to catch a javelin??

[shaunnell]

I took no notice of my stop-loss as I believed this company has a good product and is now starting to earn an income. Most trials are nearing completion with excellent results so I have no idea why this is trading so low.
A conspiracy theorist may believe the directors are driving the price lower so their options they receive soon are at a low price. I see in their AGM they want to increase director fees by nearly 50%.
Can anyone see any light in this long, dark tunnel?

[PhoenixXx]

Can anyone see any light in this long, dark tunnel?

Not for me unfortunately.
Looking back to few months ago when they had a capital raising and gave the shareholders the 'grand opportunity' to invest more in 80ct :banghead:

[nioka]

Not for me unfortunately.
Looking back to few months ago when they had a capital raising and gave the shareholders the 'grand opportunity' to invest more in 80ct :banghead:

Look a little further back and they gave us another grand opportunity to invest at $2.25. An offer which I unfortunately took up. Fortunately I had bought in early and when they fell below my average price I exited. I bought back in again later at what I thought was a discount only to exit again for another small loss. They are now on a watch list called "Just watch". They bark.

[drmb]

....They bark.

Agreed - the story of VCR at the moment is the rallies and spikes on the price sensitive announcements are getting smaller, and lasting less. Eg this afternoon's ann of the 150th implant (a milestone of some note) sent price momentarily to 60 (for less than an hour) before dropping back below 60c. Woof, woof!

[shaunnell]

"Hideous" may be too kind a word after today's dump! Dog status in my books confirmed, glad I am out now but it is sad to see this dive to 0.56 down -0.03(-5%) on vol 2.5 mil. 52 weeks ago was 1.195. Have to go back more than 6 years to find this low, thus no historical support lines, and could free fall again. Was destined supposedly for Aussie icon status, a la Cochlear when it started in the Aust Hearing Centre in Chatswood, but now destined for history books it would seem. Care to catch a javelin??

:-) Seems the chairman agrees with you. His address to shareholders barely contains his frustration with the share price.

[Bazmate]

It certainly hasn't been a fun ride with this one but with revenue increasing from Europe, Aus, and US trials, also a few other good announcements expected, US BTT approval update expected today, we could be starting another nice run up to Christmas.

Do people get warm fuzzies about Biotechs at Christmas or what??

[Miner]

Keith Neilson in Inside trader has recommended this VCR as a buy at 62 cents.
However he has cleverly qualified his note as if you gain, he wins and if you loose listening then also he wins.
There is a punt of VCR competitor acceptance on 30 Nov by USA government and VCR equipment is of latest third generation.

Rgards
PS: I do not hold any VCR share

[Lucky_Country]

Well have we rebounded off the bottom and starting an upward trend ?
Big jump today maybe news on the way increase in implants maybe ? profitability ?
Certainly some interest would love too see a substantial shareholders notice go through !

[reece55]

Well have we rebounded off the bottom and starting an upward trend ?
Big jump today maybe news on the way increase in implants maybe ? profitability ?
Certainly some interest would love too see a substantial shareholders notice go through !

Even ABN Amro have stopped touting this ultra dilution entity.....

All I can say is that this company has done nothing but burn money from day one..... it's burning through about 15 Mil a half, 38 Mil left at Dec, I give it a year before they retap and dilute the s*&^ out of everyone again!

Yes, nice bounce, but the long term trend is dooooooooooooooooooooowwnnnn...

Cheers

[Lucky_Country]

Do you not think that the improved implant rate will cover costs going forward ?
My impression is that the tide maybe turning and profitability becoming very close providing implants increase at a reasonable rate.

[reece55]

Do you not think that the improved implant rate will cover costs going forward ?
My impression is that the tide maybe turning and profitability becoming very close providing implants increase at a reasonable rate.

That's certainly the sales pitch at the moment.....

But they have been saying these types of things forever..... I remain skeptical, think of it this way, why would you pay an enormous amount for the device when compared with an actual heart transplant....... I still think the fundamental premise is flawed. But hey, I'm no biotech man!

Cheers

[Lucky_Country]

Sounds like you dont know why VCR is a chosen product.
1. Heart transplants are not readily available.
2. The device saves time in the hospital bed after implant.
3. Surgery time is also reduced

[reece55]

Sounds like you dont know why VCR is a chosen product.
1. Heart transplants are not readily available.
2. The device saves time in the hospital bed after implant.
3. Surgery time is also reduced

No, I was aware of these factors.....

Based on the half year, I get a cost per unit at around $125,000K AUD. This is obviously exclusive of the surgery to insert the implant....... Somewhat minimising your marketplace don't you think? Ah, we'll see, I just think that they have a habit of never meeting their deadlines and will have trouble raising money in this market if they need - not a good risk/return prospect for me....

Cheers

[nioka]

Do you not think that the improved implant rate will cover costs going forward ?
My impression is that the tide maybe turning and profitability becoming very close providing implants increase at a reasonable rate.
I was in this one from the very early days and thought that maybe it was a good thing to stay with. The price was going up nicely and they had new issues which seemed too good to turn down. However they spend money like there is no tomorrow and keep you thinking there is light at the end of the tunnel when they may not have even built the tunnel. The stock is so diluted now that even with reasonable success I doubt if much room is left for a half decent return.
That's just my opinion but having been bitten by it I have no inclination to treat it as anything but a dog. The product is probably OK and the directors and staff will probably do well (have done well) but I doubt they have any respect for the wishes of the shareholders.

[Lucky_Country]

I cannot deny I have been very frustrated with the progress it seems too have taken a hell of a long time and the sp has suffered because of this.
VCR now have DT and BTT trial approval along with CE Mark approval they are implanting in India and have over 20 hospitals recruited in the US.
Hopefully as the device gets used more and more familiarity will increase implants.
Success rate is 82% so its pretty reliable just feel now maybe a good time too see things moving in the right way.

[Lucky_Country]

Another good day so far fundamentals have changed on VCR.
Just hope its a sustained run not a pump and dump.
Maybe good news on the implant rate coming ?

[CAFA1234]

Another good day so far fundamentals have changed on VCR.
Just hope its a sustained run not a pump and dump.
Maybe good news on the implant rate coming ?

Notes :-
1) in Aus, Europe and USA the cost is reimbursable from either medical insurance of National Insurance (UK), so cost is only a factor if there is a competitive situation.
2) the big win is the destination market - e.g. those too ill to even be considered for a heart transplant. It is also the biggest market and increasing each and every year. The 'novel' clinical trail that VCR have started in the US MAY ( and I use the word guardedly) allow a faster trial than their competitors. Crosby (CEO) claims a patent, but then Crosby claims many things, and yet dumps the stock at 33c - nice man.
3) IF VCR can get the destination approval they are seeking a year or more in front of their rivals then i actually think they can make serious money.
4) Unfortunately it looks (my view) that they will need even more funds to complete this trial.
5) Bottom line (again just my view) is that VCR is a complete punt on a medical device that has yet to be proven in the commercial marketplace.
6) Why the volume yesterday - who knows, day traders or some genuine information out there about to pop?
7) Enjoy the ride -for it will be exciting.

[Disgruntled]

What is this story (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23699560-30538,00.html) about? I have a small number of shares in Ventracor and become dismayed when I read stories like this. Has anyone else here read this letter? Can someone send the letter or post the contents here, or advise what it is all about? I think 2.5M is too much for a CEO of a company which has made <$0 profit!

[CAFA1234]

What is this story (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,,00.html) about? I have a small number of shares in Ventracor and become dismayed when I read stories like this. Has anyone else here read this letter? Can someone send the letter or post the contents here, or advise what it is all about? I think 2.5M is too much for a CEO of a company which has made <$0 profit!

As I said in the previous post Crosby claims all sort of things including business travel at $350k PA -Do you know how many trips to the USA or Europe that is? Well at say $10k a trip (short notice booking) thats about 35 trips. Now based on a 52 week year less 6 weeks holiday / other leave that's almost 1 international business flight per week.

I have to ask you Mr Crosby, WTF are you doing? Maybe flying to Delaware to check on the house there, or maybe a business trip to France so you can check on your Chateau - yes, unless recently sold, Mr C likes to spend time in semi-rural France, and yes he does own a Chateau there. Hm... of course there are lots of business reasons why the CEO should be traveling to France.....

This travel sort of raises another question - as a qualified pilot is MR C charging for his own flights at commercial rates? I guess the board would approve this if less than a commercial fully refundable business ticket booked at the last moment????

You know you can pay $700 for an economy ticket for a 1 hour flight if booked late. Is VCR by any chance funding Mr C's light plane so it is available at short notice? Now there is a thought.

What say you Mr C? Are you ever going to do the right thing for VCR, apart from lining your own pockets?

[CAFA1234]

As I said in the previous post Crosby claims all sort of things including business travel at $350k PA -Do you know how many trips to the USA or Europe that is? Well at say $10k a trip (short notice booking) thats about 35 trips. Now based on a 52 week year less 6 weeks holiday / other leave that's almost 1 international business flight per week.

I have to ask you Mr Crosby, WTF are you doing? Maybe flying to Delaware to check on the house there, or maybe a business trip to France so you can check on your Chateau - yes, unless recently sold, Mr C likes to spend time in semi-rural France, and yes he does own a Chateau there. Hm... of course there are lots of business reasons why the CEO should be traveling to France.....

This travel sort of raises another question - as a qualified pilot is MR C charging for his own flights at commercial rates? I guess the board would approve this if less than a commercial fully refundable business ticket booked at the last moment????

You know you can pay $700 for an economy ticket for a 1 hour flight if booked late. Is VCR by any chance funding Mr C's light plane so it is available at short notice? Now there is a thought.

What say you Mr C? Are you ever going to do the right thing for VCR, apart from lining your own pockets?

Can anyone confirm if Mr C's wife is resident in Aus, or is she still in Delaware. This may account for some of the excessive travel, in which case the Board is to blame for signing off on it and allowing it.

[$$Punt$$]

VCR SP continue to head south to 23.5 cents today. I have been following this stock for a while now. Anyone out there think it is good buy? How about the saying Buy Low and Sell High. I have got burnt in VCR before but never seen this low price. Very attractive and tempting to buy 100000 shares and sell when it moves a fews cents up. Any suggestions?

[Lucky_Country]

Seems like the implant rate is not gaining any mommentum.
Peter Crosby is not well liked and many want him replaced and the sp is reflecting that.

[stock_dexter]

Results announcement tomorrow.

Fingers crossed that they surprise the market (positively) with the number of units sold! :cool:

[nioka]

Results announcement tomorrow.

Fingers crossed that they surprise the market (positively) with the number of units sold! :cool: They couldn't have produced enough to have sales that would give the results necessary to make me happy with VCR.

[WCA]

Capital raising will be required to continue with trials until end 2009 start 2010 when further regulatory approvals are anticipated. Does anyone have any understanding how such capital raising will occur. It seems this is a hurdle to overcome that will take the company into the midst of real gains. I am slightly confident, however somewhat uncertain about the short term future.

[treefrog]

Capital raising will be required to continue with trials until end 2009 start 2010 when further regulatory approvals are anticipated. Does anyone have any understanding how such capital raising will occur. It seems this is a hurdle to overcome that will take the company into the midst of real gains. I am slightly confident, however somewhat uncertain about the short term future.

Hi WCA, welcom to ASF
a post re VCR!! - hadn't looked at their chart for more than a year but was not surprised when I did.
cap raising is often a rights issue to shareholders but can be to sophisticated investers (the bigger punters) or even other - no idea what VCR have in mind though.
were you looking at the VCR chart when you decided to be "slightly confident"??

[WCA]

Hi WCA, welcom to ASF
a post re VCR!! - hadn't looked at their chart for more than a year but was not surprised when I did.
cap raising is often a rights issue to shareholders but can be to sophisticated investers (the bigger punters) or even other - no idea what VCR have in mind though.
were you looking at the VCR chart when you decided to be "slightly confident"??


I have followed VCR for a number of years and very little indicates they shouldn't be successful if approvals can be obtained. I don't understand the share price being so low. I am interested how capital will be raised to take the company through another year while the share price is low. I am confident as I believe there is an opportunity for the company if it can manage to grasp it. I have speculative outlook to VCR but still believe it is a fair bet.

[oldblue]

I don't hold VCR but it looks like any capital raising will be heavily dilutive to existing shareholders ( 300m shares ) if they need to raise a meaningful amount at around the current SP.
If they have a good story to tell, a placement to institutions/sophisticated investors seems to be their best chance in today's market.

[peteai]

One thing that bothers me is the CEOs renumeration is a fair chunk of the value of the company - I think his salary is out of proportion to the market value of the company - they should look at least basing his salary on the SP
e.g options

[oldblue]

One thing that bothers me is the CEOs renumeration is a fair chunk of the value of the company - I think his salary is out of proportion to the market value of the company - they should look at least basing his salary on the SP
e.g options

A nice thought but it just doesn't happen that way with public companies and anyway even CEO's have commitments that have to be met by a cash salary, just like the rest of us!
It's only the Bill Gates and Warren Buffetts of this world who can afford to pay themselves the token $1 pa salary!

:rolleyes:

[peteai]

A nice thought but it just doesn't happen that way with public companies and anyway even CEO's have commitments that have to be met by a cash salary, just like the rest of us!
It's only the Bill Gates and Warren Buffetts of this world who can afford to pay themselves the token $1 pa salary!

:rolleyes:

I wasn't suggesting $1 pa salary just something more appropriate to the market value of the company - is he on $2.5 mill for a company worth $40 Mil

Something less than $1million p.a would be appropriate and hopefully enough to meet his commitments;)

[WCA]

So the next capital raising begins.

Theres no reason to suspect it won't be successful. The company is gathering milestones.

I've heard $0.38 Share Price after a successful capital raising. Seems reasonable.

Any thoughts.

[WCA]

So no capital raised.

Most disappointing. Most annoying.

Very short sighted shareholders. Rather see there investments fall to nothing than invest just a little bit more in what might still prove to be valuable technology, only owned by someone else.:banghead:

[spottygoose]

So the next capital raising begins.

Theres no reason to suspect it won't be successful. The company is gathering milestones.

I've heard $0.38 Share Price after a successful capital raising. Seems reasonable.

Any thoughts.

There were plenty of reasons to suspect it wouldn't be successful and you can't lay the blame at the feet of the shareholders. Most shareholders would be happy to support a company that earned that support......:mad:

[spottygoose]

Darling of health Ventracor losing heart on funds

Rebecca Urban | December 12, 2008
Article from: The Australian

VENTRACOR, a former darling of the healthcare sector, has all but raised the white flag, after shareholders shunned its last-ditch fund-raising effort.

However, instead of calling in administrators -- as chairman John Ward warned he would do at the recent annual meeting in Brisbane -- Ventracor's chief executive Peter Crosby and financial officer Graeme Fallett have packed their bags and flown to the US to find a buyer for all or part of the group.

"Subscriptions in the share purchase plan and placement did not achieve the goal ... to fund the company's operations until June 30, 2009," the heart device maker announced to the securities exchange yesterday.

"The company is open to opportunities including investment, acquisition, merger or any other structure that maximises shareholder value."

While hindsight is a powerful thing, Ventracor's long-suffering shareholders could be excused for wondering why this course of action wasn't pursued before the company started running out of money.

Ventracor, which has won a swag of gongs for its life-saving heart device, has already been forced to cut spending and staff are being asked to take any annual leave they have owing.

No doubt Ventracor boss Peter Crosby is doing his bit too. We assume the company booked him a business class ticket to America this time -- or even economy -- rather than first class, as has been the case in the past.

Crosby has been paid a total $3.8 million during the 2 1/2 years he's been running the show, and during that time the share price has fallen 95 per cent.
Snoops report that he's already cleared out his office at the company's Chatswood headquarters, including the framed photo of his family's impressive home in France (see www.marthon.org).

Having sold a large chunk of his shares earlier this year, Crosby's employment contract was recently renewed by the board, which counts Babcock & Brown's Elizabeth Nosworthy as a director.

In the event that his position is made redundant, he will receive a payout equal to a year's salary

[Knobby22]

A mistake has been made (refer below)

RIP Ventracor.

Tombstone reads - promised much but undercapitalised and couldn't compete against more financially secure foreign firms.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Voluntary Field Safety Notice on LVA4 VentrAssist LVAD
Sydney AUSTRALIA 10 February 2009:
Ventracor Limited (ASX:VCR) reported today that it has issued an voluntary Urgent Field Safety Notice on the Model LVA4 VentrAssist® Left Ventricular Assist Device (LVAD), catalogue number VA166. There have been 188 patients implanted worldwide with the VentrAssist LVAD Model LVA4, and 123 patients are still ongoing.

The Field Safety Notice does not affect other products such as the Model LVA3 VentrAssist LVAD catalogue number VA016, which has been implanted in over 220 patients worldwide, and is still available for sale.

There have been a number of confirmed cases of conductor fracture within the percutaneous lead, between the implantable blood pump and the intermediate connector. Statistical analysis completed very recently shows that the field reliability of the VA166 does not meet
Ventracor’s targets.

Lead integrity problems have been reported in 11 patients, of whom there have been three deaths, and the remainder have had repairs performed, a pump exchange, or a heart transplant. There were three patients who had traumatic accidental lead damage, and eight other patients with conductor fracture. In some cases, failure to follow the instructions for use was a contributing factor.

The Company has advised physicians worldwide that no new patients should be implanted with the VA166. The Company is working with its physician advisors to develop guidelines for management of patients already implanted with the device.

The impact of the Field Safety Notice on the following issues is currently unknown but Company expects to make an announcement regarding the status of these issues in the week beginning 23 February 2009:
• remedial action that may be required to enable the VA166 to be reintroduced to the market;
• the impact on Company revenue and its financial position as a whole, including the expected take up of the Ventrassist LVA3 LVAD as an alternative device; and
• the intentions of one party with whom the Company was in discussions regarding a potential sale transaction and another party that was understood by the Company tobe considering a potential debt financing proposal.
--------------------------------------------------------------------

[Miner]

A mistake has been made (refer below)

RIP Ventracor.

Tombstone reads - promised much but undercapitalised and couldn't compete against more financially secure foreign firms.

--------------------------------------------------------------------
Voluntary Field Safety Notice on LVA4 VentrAssist LVAD
Sydney AUSTRALIA 10 February 2009:
Ventracor Limited (ASX:VCR) reported today that it has issued an voluntary Urgent Field Safety Notice on the Model LVA4 VentrAssist® Left Ventricular Assist Device (LVAD), catalogue number VA166. There have been 188 patients implanted worldwide with the VentrAssist LVAD Model LVA4, and 123 patients are still ongoing.

The Field Safety Notice does not affect other products such as the Model LVA3 VentrAssist LVAD catalogue number VA016, which has been implanted in over 220 patients worldwide, and is still available for sale.

There have been a number of confirmed cases of conductor fracture within the percutaneous lead, between the implantable blood pump and the intermediate connector. Statistical analysis completed very recently shows that the field reliability of the VA166 does not meet
Ventracor’s targets.

Lead integrity problems have been reported in 11 patients, of whom there have been three deaths, and the remainder have had repairs performed, a pump exchange, or a heart transplant. There were three patients who had traumatic accidental lead damage, and eight other patients with conductor fracture. In some cases, failure to follow the instructions for use was a contributing factor.

The Company has advised physicians worldwide that no new patients should be implanted with the VA166. The Company is working with its physician advisors to develop guidelines for management of patients already implanted with the device.

The impact of the Field Safety Notice on the following issues is currently unknown but Company expects to make an announcement regarding the status of these issues in the week beginning 23 February 2009:
• remedial action that may be required to enable the VA166 to be reintroduced to the market;
• the impact on Company revenue and its financial position as a whole, including the expected take up of the Ventrassist LVA3 LVAD as an alternative device; and
• the intentions of one party with whom the Company was in discussions regarding a potential sale transaction and another party that was understood by the Company tobe considering a potential debt financing proposal.
--------------------------------------------------------------------


My God

If one casuality happens from their mistake, the cost of liability will be have the sufficient amunition to extinguish VCR project altogether and in true RIP.:mad:
DNH

[Knobby22]

Ventracor into liquidation.

Another example of how a little Aussie battler can't compete on world markets against much bigger foes.

Bit sad but the writing was on the wall a year ago.

[skc]

Ventracor into liquidation.

Another example of how a little Aussie battler can't compete on world markets against much bigger foes.

Bit sad but the writing was on the wall a year ago.

Totally agree with your sentiment. I owned this share many years back and took a small loss. It is a shame that the early stage capital market isn't really well developed in Australia, and many small start-ups have no choice but to come to the equity market for capital. They are then subjected to many unnecessary pressures, like quarterly reports, PR spins, before they are ready, when they are better nutured under private ownership.

It's also the Liz Nosworthy effect. Watch out GPT holders...
http://business.watoday.com.au/business/shes-got-the-minus-touch-20090315-8ywr.html

[Knobby22]

Totally agree with your sentiment. I owned this share many years back and took a small loss. It is a shame that the early stage capital market isn't really well developed in Australia, and many small start-ups have no choice but to come to the equity market for capital. They are then subjected to many unnecessary pressures, like quarterly reports, PR spins, before they are ready, when they are better nutured under private ownership.

It's also the Liz Nosworthy effect. Watch out GPT holders...
http://business.watoday.com.au/business/shes-got-the-minus-touch-20090315-8ywr.html

SKC , good one. Love her name, she is not worthy.
Maybe VCR will get a private owner after liquidation and keep operating off the ASX?
The technology is not profitable enough in my opinion. Ducati was right about the short termism of it also (earlier in the thread).