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Trader Paul
1st-July-2007, 01:41 AM
:)

Hi folks,

CDA ..... will be alert for some positive news, this week.



Chart for CDA, attached ..... :)

happy days

paul

:)

=====

Trader Paul
1st-March-2010, 12:35 AM
:)

Hi folks,

CDA ..... will be alert for some more positive news, around 05-09032010,
as a significant and positive time cycle comes into play ..... :)

..... be warned, this stock is thinly traded ... !~!

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

Trader Paul
1st-March-2010, 09:10 PM
:)

Hi folks,

CDA ..... will be alert for some more positive news, around 05-09032010,
as a significant and positive time cycle comes into play ..... :)

..... be warned, this stock is thinly traded ... !~!

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

:)

Hi folks,

CDA ..... a good start to the week and the chart is primed
to rally out of a huge rounding bottom, building up
since the lows, around Christmas 2008 ... !~!

After an investor presentation was released today, we
might expect more interest in this stock, later in the
week (see time cycle detailed in post above) ... and
especially so now, as the Chilean earthquake is likely
to have a direct bearing on its sales ..... :)

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

Trader Paul
6th-March-2010, 09:28 PM
:)

Hi folks,

CDA ..... will be alert for some more positive news, around 05-09032010,
as a significant and positive time cycle comes into play ..... :)

..... be warned, this stock is thinly traded ... !~!

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

:)

Hi folks,

CDA ... we will be alert for some more good news, early this week,
as 2 positive time cycles come together and hopefully, this will backup
the investor presentation posted last week, as well ..... :)

..... CDA chart looks primed to blow out the top, too ... !~!

have a great week all

paul

:)

=====

Trader Paul
11th-March-2010, 05:00 PM
:)

Hi folks,


CDA ... ticking up nicely, now ..... :)

Our astrostuff and TIME stops will have us looking for minor and positive
news 12-15032010 and another minor time cycle on 17032010, but definitely
exit by 22032010 (probably close on 19032010), as a minor and negative
lunar cycle is expected early on 22032010 ..... and on 23032010, more
minor news is expected for CDA.

Meanwhile, price stop is back at, about 1.30 to make it a
painless trade, if it all falls apart.

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

condog
18th-September-2010, 09:17 PM
Its a lonely place in here paul, and this growth is a little slow for me, but i just read on Eureka report site a great write up saying this thing is about 20% undervalue and a great buy etc. So i think your on to something. The article had some compelling reasons to buy.

McLovin
5th-October-2012, 01:38 PM
Colour me stumped. Can someone explain this for me. CDA balance sheet shows debt increasing by $5.131m but the cash flow statement only shows $1.887m in proceeds from borrowings. What am I missing?

Ves
5th-October-2012, 09:18 PM
Colour me stumped. Can someone explain this for me. CDA balance sheet shows debt increasing by $5.131m but the cash flow statement only shows $1.887m in proceeds from borrowings. What am I missing?
I can't figure it out either. They did make an acquisition, but I do not understand how this would affect it. They would not just take over the debt (if any) of the firm they acquired, would they?

edit: I think it's an error. If you look at the acquisition completion announcement in January 2012 they used their existing debt facility to pay the entire $10 million. This certainly does not appear on the cash flow statement under receipts from borrowings.

skc
5th-October-2012, 09:59 PM
Colour me stumped. Can someone explain this for me. CDA balance sheet shows debt increasing by $5.131m but the cash flow statement only shows $1.887m in proceeds from borrowings. What am I missing?

They made an acquisition for $6m + earn out and said it will be entirely funded by existing debt facility.

So for some reason the $6m debt didn't appear in the cash flow statement under financiing cash flows, yet somehow it is shown under investing cash flow "acquisition of a subsidiary".

Agree it doesn't make sense.

McLovin
6th-October-2012, 08:25 PM
Thanks guys. The accounts are pretty impressive otherwise. Although they did pay a bit over 10x EBITDA for their latest acquisition,

CanOz
6th-October-2012, 08:40 PM
Another nice one...heaps around in these 'trendy' times...Some past sellers to watch out for...But otherwise a nice looking chart.

Ves
6th-October-2012, 10:19 PM
Another nice one...heaps around in these 'trendy' times...Some past sellers to watch out for...But otherwise a nice looking chart.
Also looking at this, albeit from a fundamental perspective. Still working out how much the "mining boom" affects their growth. Perhaps not as much as some I have decided. Thanks for your comments Canoz on these threads tonight. Been a joy reading from a technical perspective, your views, although I don't use the method, look pretty reasonable to me!

CanOz
7th-October-2012, 01:55 AM
Also looking at this, albeit from a fundamental perspective. Still working out how much the "mining boom" affects their growth. Perhaps not as much as some I have decided. Thanks for your comments Canoz on these threads tonight. Been a joy reading from a technical perspective, your views, although I don't use the method, look pretty reasonable to me!

Yeah, its really cool when the fundamental stuff mesh's well with the price stuff...

CanOz

McLovin
8th-October-2012, 01:00 PM
Also looking at this, albeit from a fundamental perspective. Still working out how much the "mining boom" affects their growth. Perhaps not as much as some I have decided. Thanks for your comments Canoz on these threads tonight. Been a joy reading from a technical perspective, your views, although I don't use the method, look pretty reasonable to me!

I don't think mining is their big thing. They tend to be more into military/humanitarian. Having just gotten back from Central Asia (and having driven right through the place) I can tell you that phone reception is sketchy at best, you either have to rely on satellite phones/radios or on HF radio. HF is obviously far cheaper than satellite. They're operating in a small market. HF radios aren't going to boom but equally I don't think they will die out, they have terrific utility that you just can't get on VHF/UHF/SHF and they're cheap, let the ionisphere do all the work, so I guess it's more about whether they can maintain their piece of the pie.

Country Lad
8th-October-2012, 03:45 PM
I don't think mining is their big thing. They tend to be more into military/humanitarian.

Their income is 55% metal detection products (includes military products for mine detection), 37% communication (including satellite), 5% mining technology and 3% other.

Cheers
Country Lad

McLovin
8th-October-2012, 04:09 PM
Their income is 55% metal detection products (includes military products for mine detection), 37% communication (including satellite), 5% mining technology and 3% other.

Cheers
Country Lad

They got out of satellite last year.

prawn_86
12th-October-2012, 12:13 PM
Has been pushed up a bit lately. CUrrently at about 18 month highs, and if it can push above here and hold it might get a few tech analysts interested in a breakout. Volume seems pretty low though :2twocents

ROE
12th-October-2012, 02:00 PM
This is a solid business, I monitor them for a while but only bought them when they got rid of their satellite business as I think that will drag down the company, once that is out of the way and stock still trades cheap I load up.

Their metal detector are world class and very well known and used by artisanal miner and
UN and other organisation to detect mines etc...

they are the metal detector to get if you are serious...they are so good the Chinese
try to knock it off and sell them as CDA products...

it is a funny stories because a lot of them buy these cheap knock off and has CDA label all over it
they brought back to CDA shop for support and service.....CDA now implement chips in these devices
to counter the knock off.

Their radio business is target at military use and mining where there is little
communication infrastructure so you can say this guy build a name on the
frontier markets and less developed countries

Their products and services are well known so people keep coming back for more
pretty much like ARP in 4 wheels drive...if you want 4 Wheels accessories then ARB is
the name...

There is a lot to like about this business, strong balance sheet, excellent management
who look after small shareholders like the big guys, great dividend and It was very cheap
when I bought it...another business buy and hold..

Out Too Soon
15th-October-2012, 02:09 PM
49331

Better late than never, just jumped on the bandwagon. We'll see how long this trends.:xyxthumbs

ROE
17th-October-2012, 10:47 AM
Another stars on the rise
The AGM is like a page from a fairy tale
I called this the next ARP

prawn_86
17th-October-2012, 11:10 AM
Well picked ROE.

From the chairmans report (my bold):


The first quarter of FY13 has seen the continuation of the strong business conditions experienced by Codan in the second half of FY12, with the metal detection division and gold detector sales in particular, performing strongly. Given the continued strength of our business, it’s likely that we will post a very strong net profit after tax result for the first half. The Board is of the view that net profit after tax should reach $25 million dollars for the first half, which will be more than double that of the first half last year and will be the highest half year profit number in the company’s history.

And targeting 40% higher for the FY overall next year.

ROE
17th-October-2012, 12:02 PM
Well picked ROE.

From the chairmans report (my bold):



And targeting 40%

higher for the FY overall next year.

I assume u got some then when you message me and
I said 140 is a bargain?

prawn_86
17th-October-2012, 12:43 PM
I assume u got some then when you message me and
I said 140 is a bargain?

Yes picked some at at 1.45 before the latest dividend was paid, so with hindsight wish i had bought more ;)

prawn_86
22nd-October-2012, 04:54 PM
Keeps on pushing higher. Closing on a high and up another 6% on the back of a down day for the overall market.

Would love a chartists view of the current position, i would have thought a pullback would be needed soon

ROE
22nd-October-2012, 05:37 PM
Keeps on pushing higher. Closing on a high and up another 6% on the back of a down day for the overall market.

Would love a chartists view of the current position, i would have thought a pullback would be needed soon

all about earning expectation now...would it pull a 20c EPS or higher..

and if it does would it increase dividend? because if that is that case above $2 isn't demanding....

Breaking 52 week high that would bring out most techies as a buy :-)

prawn_86
7th-November-2012, 02:34 PM
Up another 6% so far today. Volumes are fairly sparse of late but it has still continued to push higher over the last 2 weeks.

Country Lad
21st-January-2013, 05:33 PM
Has been kind and generous to me and looks ready for another break.

Cheers
Country Lad

50532

prawn_86
22nd-January-2013, 10:46 AM
Has been kind and generous to me and looks ready for another break.


Up nearly 5% so far this morning. Great call :)

McLovin
22nd-January-2013, 11:18 AM
Up nearly 5% so far this morning. Great call :)

Half yearly should be out soon. It's probably why the SP is having a run.

skc
22nd-January-2013, 02:10 PM
Half yearly should be out soon. It's probably why the SP is having a run.

At this level it better be a cracker of a result...imo.

I've noticed a few stocks putting on big runs in the second half of 2012 on the back of strong June results... only to hit a bit of a wall when they provide market update.

So at this level it's a hold for me unless you are quite certain about the upcoming report.

McLovin
22nd-January-2013, 03:42 PM
At this level it better be a cracker of a result...imo.

I've noticed a few stocks putting on big runs in the second half of 2012 on the back of strong June results... only to hit a bit of a wall when they provide market update.

So at this level it's a hold for me unless you are quite certain about the upcoming report.

If they hit the mark that they said they would at the AGM, then CDA is on ~10.5x 2013 FY earnings.

prawn_86
18th-February-2013, 11:26 AM
Still grining higher with big volumes going through Friday and today.

Im at work so dont have my normal platform, but average volume looks to be 150 - 200k per day yet Friday had 1.5m and today has had 500k already...

tinhat
18th-February-2013, 11:56 AM
Still grining higher with big volumes going through Friday and today.

Im at work so dont have my normal platform, but average volume looks to be 150 - 200k per day yet Friday had 1.5m and today has had 500k already...

The figures I have is that volume on Friday was 510,000 and that average daily volume (past 21 days) is 396,000.

prawn_86
18th-February-2013, 12:19 PM
The figures I have is that volume on Friday was 510,000 and that average daily volume (past 21 days) is 396,000.

Sorry, it must have been Thursday that was 1m plus and Friday not today that was 0.5m. I really should not check this stuff at work :o

ROE
21st-February-2013, 02:46 PM
Half-year highlights:
Highest half-year profit in the company’s history
Interim dividend increased by 50% to 6.0 cents
Continued strong growth of metal detector sales
Tough business conditions in Radio Communications, but a major product
release achieved
Successful acquisition of land mobile radio business and related capital
raising
Minetec business continues to transition to a technology solutions supplier
to the mining industry
Second-half profit for FY13 expected to be as strong as first half

Country Lad
21st-February-2013, 02:51 PM
Interesting to watch CDA. A turnaround of 10% from being down 10 cents just before the announcement to now being up 23 cents. Nervous nellies probably now kicking themselves.


Half-year highlights:
 Highest half-year profit in the company’s history
 Interim dividend increased by 50% to 6.0 cents
 Continued strong growth of metal detector sales
 Tough business conditions in Radio Communications, but a major product release achieved
 Successful acquisition of land mobile radio business and related capital raising
 Minetec business continues to transition to a technology solutions supplier to the mining industry
 Second-half profit for FY13 expected to be as strong as first half


Cheers
Country Lad

I still hold lots

EDIT: ROE beat me to it while I made a cup of coffee.

ROE
21st-February-2013, 02:57 PM
I always like my stocks keep paying me more and more dividend each year more power to
drive the compounding machine :D

prawn_86
21st-February-2013, 03:00 PM
I still hold lots

Yeh this is my 2nd biggest holding behind CAB.

Even if they dont increase the final divvy i will still be getting over 7.5%pa based on my purchase price. Good to see also that they are forecasting the same again for the 2nd half :)

Country Lad
21st-February-2013, 03:11 PM
................Good to see also that they are forecasting the same again for the 2nd half :)

That would be the main reason for the rise - another example of how the market is forward looking. Good result on a day where the market is down a bit.

Cheers
Country Lad

McLovin
21st-February-2013, 03:16 PM
Wish I'd got more at $1.50. :banghead: I was building a posi and then they ran away.

ROE
22nd-February-2013, 05:44 PM
http://afr.com/p/markets/market_wrap/codan_poised_for_re_rating_E3GcfJrXa7Hij4uHnAIxON

Country Lad
27th-February-2013, 05:38 PM
Update to this apparent never ending upward trend.

Cheers
Country Lad

51139

prawn_86
27th-February-2013, 07:55 PM
Update to this apparent never ending upward trend.


Yeh has run a bit too hard too fast for my liking. Personally i wouldnt be surprised with a heavy drop when it goes ex div

hesking1
28th-February-2013, 12:20 PM
Yeh has run a bit too hard too fast for my liking. Personally i wouldnt be surprised with a heavy drop when it goes ex div

As always though if you sell on valuation grounds the market will promptly show you how high it can go!

Happy days for holders

McLovin
28th-February-2013, 12:28 PM
As always though if you sell on valuation grounds the market will promptly show you how high it can go!

Happy days for holders

It's still only on 11x forward earnings. Not overvalued, IMO.

Country Lad
1st-March-2013, 10:04 AM
Part of the interest may be its inclusion in the ASX300 Index which would have been anticipated. Quite a bit of movement in the index, 17 in all.

Cheers
Country Lad

hesking1
22nd-March-2013, 12:40 PM
Codan recently lost head of communications division, Kevin Kane, to a much larger privately owned US competitor, Datron World Communications Inc. Pretty damn good promotion if you ask me, from head of division to President and CEO of US company. He must be an impressive guy.

http://www.marketwire.com/press-release/datron-world-communications-announces-strategic-leadership-change-with-kevin-j-kane-1767640.htm

Perhaps helps explain recent sharp pullback.

Country Lad
22nd-March-2013, 01:29 PM
I sold on 14th when the sentiment appeared to turn. Missed the high the next day but them's the breaks.

Has failed in break from pennant and sentiment has dissipated, so we may see it being ignored for a while.

Cheers
Country Lad

51436

aa2
28th-March-2013, 12:25 PM
Damn only just became aware of this company last week
Wish it was 6 months ago

Very impressive fundamentals - earnings growth, high return on equity, falling debt to equity

Have I missed the boat ? Is their market large enough to continue the growth ?

prawn_86
17th-April-2013, 09:18 AM
Has anyone not received their dividend yet? I believe the date payable was about 2 weeks ago but i havent seen anything yet, just wondeering if others are the same

Hit hard 9% down yesterday, no news from the co for the past 6 weeks

ValueSnatcher
17th-April-2013, 09:35 AM
Has anyone not received their dividend yet? I believe the date payable was about 2 weeks ago but i havent seen anything yet, just wondeering if others are the same

Hit hard 9% down yesterday, no news from the co for the past 6 weeks

Revenue coming from business with exposure to the commodities I'd say. Combined with the fact that the massive surge in price over the recent times helped many people to take profits in an attempt to free up funds for stocks which are becoming cheap in the market falls/just taking some risk off the table.

Got my eye on this one :D

ROE
17th-April-2013, 09:36 AM
Has anyone not received their dividend yet? I believe the date payable was about 2 weeks ago but i havent seen anything yet, just wondeering if others are the same

Hit hard 9% down yesterday, no news from the co for the past 6 weeks

Yeah bank dividend a while ago yeah around 2 weeks ago ....direct credit is best ....else may get lost in the mail with the cheque.....nothing change in my view for CDA ....maybe some good opportunity coming up

skc
17th-April-2013, 11:47 AM
Has anyone not received their dividend yet? I believe the date payable was about 2 weeks ago but i havent seen anything yet, just wondeering if others are the same

Hit hard 9% down yesterday, no news from the co for the past 6 weeks

May be the falling gold price means that metal detector demand will fall :D

hesking1
17th-April-2013, 12:18 PM
May be the falling gold price means that metal detector demand will fall :D

Also a real large line of shares went through last Friday: 7m. Someone getting out?..

TommyXu
18th-April-2013, 08:53 AM
Also a real large line of shares went through last Friday: 7m. Someone getting out?..


Correct me if i am wrong.

I think the real cause of the sharp decline of the share price this week is due to the anticipated announcement of "Profit Guidance" in late April. For the last 2 years, this guidnance was release in third week of April (wednesday). However, so far they still have not released it.

Investors really worry about whether the company may downgrade its earning forecase for the year due to falling gold price. From my personal viewpoint, I do not think it is the case. The NPAT this year should hit 50m range which is more than the 40m range announced early in the year.

We will see..

chops_a_must
18th-April-2013, 09:57 AM
A large breakdown, such as this one, is very rarely a good sign.

Off my watchlist for now.

prawn_86
18th-April-2013, 10:50 AM
A large breakdown, such as this one, is very rarely a good sign.

Off my watchlist for now.

Yes it certaintly has been smashed as late. Surprised it hasnt gotten a speeding ticket

ValueSnatcher
18th-April-2013, 01:06 PM
Just been promoted on my watchlist.
Earnings are not solely related to gold and regardless, prispectors arent going to quit prospecting en-masse because the price of gold is lower.

Despite the massive price run ovet the last few months it never got terribly expensice and is looking pretty good now i think:2twocents

hesking1
18th-April-2013, 02:58 PM
Earnings are not solely related to gold and regardless, prispectors arent going to quit prospecting en-masse because the price of gold is lower.

I'm with you.

But surely that is fairly obvious - which makes me think, what does the market know that I do not?...

When you are asking yourself this question it is usually best to find out the answer from the sideline

My :2twocents

TommyXu
18th-April-2013, 03:32 PM
I'm with you.

But surely that is fairly obvious - which makes me think, what does the market know that I do not?...

When you are asking yourself this question it is usually best to find out the answer from the sideline

My :2twocents


I think the drop of gold price and the delay of major profit guidance announcement in April cause panic among investors. If you guys still remember, there is a sharp price drop before they released the half year accounts in Feb (drop from 2.9# to almost 2.3#).

So_Cynical
18th-April-2013, 09:21 PM
May be the falling gold price means that metal detector demand will fall :D

That's the conclusion i came to..pretty much the only conclusion that's possible without an announcement.



Got my eye on this one :D

The cue starts behind me.

prawn_86
19th-April-2013, 10:28 AM
Speeding ticket finally issued yesterday and a standard "We know nothing" reply

prawn_86
22nd-April-2013, 03:21 PM
is looking pretty good now i think:2twocents


I'm with you.


The cue starts behind me.

Has rebounded strongly after the speeding ticket. Did any of you gentlemen managed to pick the recent low?

ValueSnatcher
22nd-April-2013, 03:41 PM
Has rebounded strongly after the speeding ticket. Did any of you gentlemen managed to pick the recent low?

First lot at 2.86 (tried to ammend order overnight to 2.70 but must have done it incorrectly as I was tired)..

Second lot at 2.70

Tried for a third at 2.50 but didn't get them.

I have wanted in on CDA as a long termer, so one lot is held for this purpose. The other lot I intend to sell on close today and take the quick ~15% :D

finicky
26th-May-2013, 04:14 PM
Wouldn't mind having another bite if Codan returns to 2.50
Chance of support looks significant there, and if not, stuck with a few more shares in a quality divvy paying company.

These days I hesitate to mention Skaffold's future valuations as they have no reliability. The stock was upgraded to A1 for the current year on the basis of results for H1 and guidance for H2. Intrinsic values for FYs 13, 14, and 15 are currently 6.57, 5.39, and 4.86

I stress current, the values are ephemeral and blow this way and that on results, outlooks, and which drug the analysts are on. Only 2 analysts are feeding earnings estimates for Codan. Might be of some interest though, and if taking the lowest as a guide - 4.86 for FY15 - suggests share is at a discount. The weak trading might be mostly correcting the rapid rise since September 2012.

Don't think it's likely that the struggling gold price will dampen enthusiasm of prospectors or artisan miners.
The mining technology and communications division is not a big contributor to revenue yet.
The earnings guidance given in April last year was alerting market to an upgrade. Looking back, there's usually some business update around April but not always? Maybe just nothing to add to guidance given when reporting H1 - "Second-half profit for FY13 expected to be as strong as first half"

ROE
27th-May-2013, 09:25 PM
Watch it...go Codan :-)
http://www.abc.net.au/4corners/stories/2013/05/27/3766576.htm

finicky
27th-May-2013, 11:46 PM
^^^ Thanks for the link

As I got it, a Codan employee visiting China uses his laptop via the hotel's wifi and it gets infected with malware that is then transmitted to the company's computers. Now the Chinese have sensitive files about the military radios that Codan makes. A bit confidence sapping.
I vaguely thought they were on top of the detector counterfeiting issue which has been around a while.
With the M.D being restrained in his comments about the hacking and saying it could be a national security issue I wonder how free he feels to discuss any commercial implications.
So possibly one reason for the selling lately.

finicky
28th-May-2013, 10:28 AM
Timely damage control. However McGurk was not overflowing with confidence that they could secure the intellectual property against China during the 4 Cnrs interview. Very honest sounding guy imo.

28 May 2013
ASX ANNOUNCEMENT
Security of Intellectual Property

Australian electronics and communications company Codan Limited (ASX:
CDA) acknowledges that like many international companies and
governments, the threat posed by third parties trying to access computer
systems is a real one.

The Company understands that the nature of its products may cause the
Company to be a target of “hackers”, and as reported in recent years the
unauthorised manufacture of counterfeit gold detectors in China has
heightened the Company’s awareness of this matter.

Strong action has been taken to protect our information against Chinese based counterfeit gold detector manufacturers, which has included the Company implementing processes and controls to protect the computer
systems that store the Company’s intellectual property.

Mr McGurk, Codan’s Managing Director and CEO, said that the protection of
the Company’s intellectual property is fundamental to our business, and our
systems and controls have been designed to defend against this threat.

The establishment of systems to defend against the threat of unauthorised
third parties gaining access to sensitive intellectual property is an ongoing
challenge which must continually evolve as “hacking” techniques change and
increase in sophistication.

In response to recent media speculation about computer hacking, Mr McGurk
stated that the Company has no evidence that any intellectual property in
either its metal detection or communications business has been obtained by
unauthorised third parties.

Michael Barton
Company Secretary

ROE
28th-May-2013, 11:44 AM
I like the management and its honesty of confonting the problems
I Bought more to celebrate -:)

they proved to me they are in the league of Flight centre Graham Turner, Dominos Don Meij and Credit corp Simon Calleia

hesking1
14th-June-2013, 03:39 PM
Downgrade to $45m NPAT. Wasn't gold price affecting the SP after all so much as civil unrest.

Always the unknown unknowns!

Still if 25c EPS then 12x P/E not at all unreasonable and $3 at least fair value on back of envelope calculation...

skc
14th-June-2013, 04:01 PM
Downgrade to $45m NPAT. Wasn't gold price affecting the SP after all so much as civil unrest.

Always the unknown unknowns!

Still if 25c EPS then 12x P/E not at all unreasonable and $3 at least fair value on back of envelope calculation...

Market says $2.30.

May be they don't believe it's purely due to civil unrests...

McLovin
14th-June-2013, 04:04 PM
Market says $2.30.

May be they don't believe it's purely due to civil unrests...

Probably doesn't help that they announced it at 3:30 on a Friday.

ROE
14th-June-2013, 04:17 PM
What a shocker .... Dont give out high expectation if there is a chance you wont make it
Maybe management not as good as I think

skc
14th-June-2013, 04:17 PM
Market says $2.30.

May be they don't believe it's purely due to civil unrests...

Nasty close! It's now $1.90. Doesn't help that it's a thin stock at the best of times.

Probably a bit overdone if civil unrest was indeed the cause.. and I doubt metal detector sales are truely that correlated with the gold price.

But let's shoot first and ask questions later.

McLovin
14th-June-2013, 04:58 PM
Downgrade to $45m NPAT. Wasn't gold price affecting the SP after all so much as civil unrest.

Always the unknown unknowns!

Still if 25c EPS then 12x P/E not at all unreasonable and $3 at least fair value on back of envelope calculation...

The market is probably working on the 1H result an outlier. 2H result will be ~$18m, annualised that is only 20c EPS.

Who knows, I need to go back and have a look at what I wrote about them.

Ves
14th-June-2013, 06:26 PM
Market says $2.30.

May be they don't believe it's purely due to civil unrests...
I'd hate to be cynical, but civil unrest in Africa isn't exactly a rare thing, is it?

Agree with McLovin about the market annualising the 2nd half earnings rather than the 1st. First half earnings are well above trend growth and the operating margins are well above anything they had previously achieved. Almost 10% over average.

I made a slightly longer post on hotcopper before. Same gist.

Country Lad
14th-June-2013, 06:46 PM
Exactly the breakout size from the patterns you would be hoping for. Unfortunately in the wrong direction. The P&F chart did point to a reasonable downturn.

Cheers
Country Lad

52802

ValueSnatcher
14th-June-2013, 07:05 PM
Based on where we are in the half year it is very hard to gauge revenue/earnings going forward due to the fact that we don't know how long this impact on earnings has been occurring for. If it is really just in the last quarter - then if that is carried on into the next FY...well...you get the picture...

If we look at operating margins on a more historical (and conservative) basis of say 23% going forward, and expect revenue in the area of $200m this year we can then throw out some scenario's....

Revenue for next year could come in at flat. It could come in at -25%, but it likely won't come in much higher. Assuming instant margin compression and a revenue drop of 25% for 13/14 FY I think its worth around $2 - $2.10....

But the flaw with this valuation is that my estimates for revenue are very basic...until we see the full year commentary (quarter on quarter cash flow would be better!), it really is up for anyone to guess...

skc
14th-June-2013, 08:17 PM
These days I hesitate to mention Skaffold's future valuations as they have no reliability. The stock was upgraded to A1 for the current year on the basis of results for H1 and guidance for H2. Intrinsic values for FYs 13, 14, and 15 are currently 6.57, 5.39, and 4.86

I think I've found the reason for the fall.

Waiting for RM to tell us how he's sold at the top 4 months ago.

ValueSnatcher
14th-June-2013, 08:52 PM
I think I've found the reason for the fall.

Waiting for RM to tell us how he's sold at the top 4 months ago.

I knew you'd find the reason for us :D:D

Boggo
14th-June-2013, 08:59 PM
I think I've found the reason for the fall.

Waiting for RM to tell us how he's sold at the top 4 months ago.

You may have to resort to charting to stay ahead of the news skc :)

ROE
14th-June-2013, 10:52 PM
I think I've found the reason for the fall.

Waiting for RM to tell us how he's sold at the top 4 months ago.

Damn it why didn't he tell me
The curse of over promise and under-delivered, they need to talk to CCP management before and after GFC bungle on how to keep the market informed :D

Still isn't a bad business, the market now need to adjust to their sky high optimism :)

finicky
15th-June-2013, 02:11 AM
I think I've found the reason for the fall.
Waiting for RM to tell us how he's sold at the top 4 months ago.

He already sort of has. One of his managers, Tim Kelly, was on Your Money Your Call a couple of weeks ago and responded to a viewer's question about CDA. He said the fund no longer had a position. Also RM has been saying his fund is now only 40% invested and is cashed up. Makes you wonder what fund managers find out in those little tete a tetes they have with company managements.

I bought another 5000 today @2.26 but it was sort of accidental. If it pulls back to 1.50 I might have another nibble

If Codan only manages to perform like this weaker Dec Half over FY14 well that's still about 20c eps, so a 2 buck share price seems very fair value on that scenario. The newish mine communications and technology division and the radio division might start to get some traction late FY14
Who knows though - who's going to be confident in any outlook statement they make now?

As the creaky wheels of Skaffold turn, subscribers might get an downgraded valuation of CDA in a week or so - will report here if that happens. By the way - commonly big differences in Skaffold valuations and those of the RM crowd even though they developed and spruiked the program. They regularly and wildly contradict each other - maybe because the RM group gets a lot of its views from discussions with management? For instance RM and co like SIV, SEK and BGL but you'd steer well clear of them if following Skaffold

Glooommm

JTLP
17th-June-2013, 10:21 AM
Looks like a lot of offscreen sellers pushing it down to $1.60 as I type - that's over a 50% drop since the announcement.

Can management be trusted? Is this a knife to be caught?

ValueSnatcher
17th-June-2013, 11:17 AM
Looks like a lot of offscreen sellers pushing it down to $1.60 as I type - that's over a 50% drop since the announcement.

Can management be trusted? Is this a knife to be caught?

Based on my rough expectations outlined earlier in this thread I'm in for some at $1.65....but its not going into my core holdings - this is still feeling quite spec until management proves themselves to be trusted/gives some further confirmation that the earnings difficulties are not terminal.

Happy to buy in on this basis at this price.

finicky
17th-June-2013, 02:44 PM
Yes I bought a few more today too @ 1.70, but I'm not at all sure of what I'm doing.

Motley Fool Share Advisor put out a note to subscribers today advising a hold recommendation, down from a buy. They made some good points and unlike me making the rash assumption of the revised H2 profit guidance being repeated over FY14 (my low case), they of course point out that this disappointment has been a Q4 development. suggesting that Q4 profit after tax contribution might be around $5.5m, and if you took that as a base for FY14 you're only looking at NPAT of $22m, or eps of about 12.4c.

Quote Motley Fool:

" If next year is poor...

If we assume that the company was having a strong third quarter at the time of the above announcements, and that H2 was expected to be in line with H1, it is reasonable to assume Q3 profit would have been around $13 million. That means Q4's net profit could have conceivably been around $5.5 million. If we take this Q4 result and extrapolate it for all of FY14, that would mean net profit after tax of about $22 million.

At the current market capitalisation of $336 million, that'd give us an FY14 price earnings ratio of around 15.3 times (@ 1.90)

If recovery is swift...

On the flipside, if the company can deal with its issues and/or the "instability" is overcome in Q1, we may see an impaired first quarter, and the rest of FY14 return to trend. That might give us around $5.5 million in Q1 of FY14, before returning to the higher profit levels of recent quarters of around $13 million -- for a full year number of about $44 million -- broadly in line with this year.

That'd put the FY14 P/E at 7.6 times (@ 1.90)

Of course, neither of the above are absolute outside numbers -- things could deteriorate to a lower profit than the 'poor' outcome outlined above, or growth in other markets could help push profits higher than the 'swift recovery' case."

Also:

"Woefully missing from the announcement are some key details:

What markets, specifically
How many countries
What proportion of sales and profit those countries represent
How long the instability has been impacting sales
How the rest of the company's operations have been performing
When the "government elections" are due
Why the company has confidence that the instability will be resolved

More importantly, management's description of FY14 as "successful" is over-simple, but still tells us what we need to know -- that the company doesn't know enough to be able to predict, with any level of confidence, the impact on next financial year, despite the upbeat wording."

hesking1
18th-June-2013, 09:00 AM
Yes I bought a few more today too @ 1.70, but I'm not at all sure of what I'm doing.

Motley Fool Share Advisor put out a note to subscribers today advising a hold recommendation, down from a buy. . . .

Interesting thanks Finicky.


Downgrade to $45m NPAT. Wasn't gold price affecting the SP after all so much as civil unrest.

Always the unknown unknowns!

Still if 25c EPS then 12x P/E not at all unreasonable and $3 at least fair value on back of envelope calculation...

Boy was I wrong!

And market is probably thinking that downgrades usually come in twos (at the least)...

Trainertom16
18th-June-2013, 12:33 PM
It seams the share price has tanked because of the lack of quality information in the announcement. As a shareholder I find this a little frustrating.

Iv had a look at the countries CDA sells detectors in and researched which ones seam to be in ‘civil unrest.’ The main countries CDA sell detectors in are:
• Sudan
• Guinea
• Tanzania
• Cameroon
• Nigeria
• Mali

According to the Australian government website ‘Smart Traveller’ the following countries have this warning.
• Guinea – Do not travel
• Sudan – Do not travel
• Tanzania – Exercise a high degree of cation
• Cameroon – Exercise a high degree of cation
• Nigeria – Reconsider your need to travel
• Mali – Do not travel

From my research the only countries due to have an election soon is:
• Guinea - on the 30th of June 2013. The smart traveller site states “Regular protests are expected in the lead-up to the election, and as a result the security environment remains volatile at this time.”
• Mali – July and August 2013. The smart traveler site states, “Demonstrations may occur in the period surrounding the elections.”

Im unsure of how much revenue is made from these countries individually so its very hard to tell what impact the ‘civil unrest’ could cause to their profits long term. The other thing to keep in mind is the fact that many of these countries have experienced ‘civil unrest’ for some time and fighting in many of these countries is nothing new. So has this stopped sales in the past? It seams not…

If your thinking of buying more shares in CDA, I think you need to be confident that the ‘civil unrest’ will calm down as a result of the elections in Mali and Guinea. You also have to be confident that the gold price decline hasn’t slowed down sales, and finally you have to be confidant that sales will expand into areas such as South America as well as continue in Africa into the future.

I think we need more information from CDA on this one…

What do you guys think?

Buttsie
18th-June-2013, 01:21 PM
What do you guys think?

I think I wished that I'd not bought this morning at $1.70 :banghead:

Thanks for the research Trainertom, this proves useful but only serves to raise greater doubt in my mind about the openness of the management.

PS. First time poster. Great forum guys. :xyxthumbs

finicky
19th-June-2013, 09:10 PM
Primary research Trainertom16 - a novel approach

Well since no-one has mentioned it I'll add that 5 directors bought on market yesterday the 18th, and two weren't token amounts either: M.D McGurk added 32,000 shares and Klingner bought 60,000

I had a bid in for some at 1.555 which was same as the last trade but it didn't catch a wave

Buttsie
20th-June-2013, 04:39 PM
Up 10.4% today at time of typing ($1.75). Hoping that CDA continues to recover in the right direction. The director dealings help with my confidence levels.

Still nervous over the short term though.

finicky
10th-July-2013, 10:20 PM
Added a few more of these back a week or so ago from a bid that I left sitting @ 1.555

Reason I'm posting is that David Buckland of Montgomery fund was on 'Your Money Your Call' tonight and responded to a viewer question on Codan. He thought the correction post the earnings downgrade was overdone and the fund re-entered the stock in the 1.50s, after having sold the whole of a large position prior the announcement in the $3+ range. How nice for them. He said he valued CDA at $2

Skaffold did eventually make a belated adjustment to their valuation of CDA. One of the two analysts covering changed his estimated eps on June 20 by my observation. At least that was when Skaffold registered his new input. That was one weekend and 4 trading days after the downgrade. The other analyst's input stayed the same for so many days that I stopped checking and only noticed today that he's changed. If the estimated eps don't change nor does the Skaffold valuation - and I'm paying $1,330 p.a for this.

Skaffold's estimated eps for FY14 is now 22c with the two analysts inputs within a cent of each other. Only one is forecasting for FY15 and he thinks 27 cps. Valuation now is FY14:$2.97, FY15:$3.53
Bit of a change there from prior valuation and margin of safety - makes charting look a quite attractive alternative.

skc
11th-July-2013, 05:00 PM
Skaffold did eventually make a belated adjustment to their valuation of CDA. One of the two analysts covering changed his estimated eps on June 20 by my observation. At least that was when Skaffold registered his new input. That was one weekend and 4 trading days after the downgrade. The other analyst's input stayed the same for so many days that I stopped checking and only noticed today that he's changed. If the estimated eps don't change nor does the Skaffold valuation - and I'm paying $1,330 p.a for this.

Skaffold's estimated eps for FY14 is now 22c with the two analysts inputs within a cent of each other. Only one is forecasting for FY15 and he thinks 27 cps. Valuation now is FY14:$2.97, FY15:$3.53
Bit of a change there from prior valuation and margin of safety - makes charting look a quite attractive alternative.

Only 2 analyst covering the stock... it feels dangerous to use analyst earning estimates in this instance.

In fact, one might argue it's dangerous to use analyst earning estimates in all situations. This from the AFR today
http://www.afr.com/p/business/chanticleer/companies_must_come_clean_as_downgrades_PU7naBrzKE sCL7VP6Bz3CP


Companies must come clean as downgrades loom

While EPS growth for the top-300 stocks is tipped to jump to 21.7 per cent in the 2014 financial year, it is safe to say those estimates are too optimistic and vulnerable to downgrades.

While the mining sector accounted for about a third of the earnings downgrades in recent months, financial services firm AMP, food maker Goodman Fielder and Coca-Cola Amatil was confirmation that bad news is not just confined to mining, media and retail.

Garbage in, garbage out.

piggybank
12th-August-2013, 06:19 PM
Update - Weekly

53780

galumay
22nd-August-2013, 11:11 AM
What have i missed? (Down 20% already today.)

Ves
22nd-August-2013, 11:28 AM
What have i missed? (Down 20% already today.)
Their outlook statement suggests that future profitability will most likely mean revert to levels seen in the first half of 2011 and 2012 for 2014. They seem to be implying that the 2013 result was a bit of a flash in the plan. Also more and more "seasonal" excuses as to why this may be is not a good look (they even tried to blame Ramadan!).

Country Lad
22nd-August-2013, 11:41 AM
What have i missed? (Down 20% already today.)

It reported today. Revenue up 36.2%, Profit up 96.2%.

Market must be concentrating on the outlook statements such as:


The Minelab business remains strong, although the previous record level of gold detector sales into the African market is being temporarily depressed by a number of external factors.

Our sales can sometimes be volatile.......

We enter FY14 without the record level of sales momentum of gold detectors, and therefore we expect to return to profit levels more consistent with the first half of both FY11 and FY12....................

While we remain confident of delivering another good result in FY14, it’s still early in the year......................

Cheers
Country Lad

galumay
22nd-August-2013, 12:35 PM
It reported today. Revenue up 36.2%, Profit up 96.2%.

Market must be concentrating on the outlook statements such as:

Cheers
Country Lad

OK, I had read the AP and didnt see it as warranting that sort of effect!

I took it as an opportunity to enter a share that has been on my watch list for a while, I missed the last opportunity, but in this time at 1.85.

skc
22nd-August-2013, 01:35 PM
Sometimes it feels like the market has the memory of a goldfish. The last 6 months has been shocking by CDA from a disclosure point of view. They said nothing is going on when the share price first started to fall, only to reveal later that profit would be down. They even blamed civil unreset in Africa (which is nothing new), yet now they are just saying that FY13 was an abnormal peak.

So going forward earnings would be around $20-24m? This makes today's price about right imo.

McLovin
22nd-August-2013, 01:47 PM
I sold at about $1.60, for a small profit, a bit after that downgrade came through (in hindsight I should have sold when it was over $3). I didn't see how it was sustainable and I had a better use for the cash. For a while the SP kind of ran away again over $2 but the outlook statement confirmed what I thought when the initial downgrade happened, that this was a big outlier unlikely to be repeated.

skc
22nd-August-2013, 02:25 PM
I sold at about $1.60, for a small profit, a bit after that downgrade came through (in hindsight I should have sold when it was over $3). I didn't see how it was sustainable and I had a better use for the cash. For a while the SP kind of ran away again over $2 but the outlook statement confirmed what I thought when the initial downgrade happened, that this was a big outlier unlikely to be repeated.

Hey you are still alive! A few people missed you...

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11122&page=6&p=790038&highlight=members#post790038

McLovin
22nd-August-2013, 02:28 PM
Hey you are still alive! A few people missed you...

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=11122&page=6&p=790038&highlight=members#post790038

Oh yeah, a nice Summer break in Spain/France.:D

hesking1
22nd-August-2013, 02:52 PM
Could be the massive jump in inventories from $12m (7.5% of sales) to $43m (18% of sales).

Never a good sign.

ROE
22nd-August-2013, 08:19 PM
Ouch hammer market didn't like outlook still hold for yield cos I got them cheap average wise..
It was an exciting ride for a while :D

finicky
26th-August-2013, 09:43 PM
Here's a link for the Russell Muldoon particle at Roger Montgomery's blog. You can read it yourself of course but in summary he suspects management is now erring on the side of caution in expressing its outlook, and he draws an inference from the company stating that it takes seriously its progressive payout of at least 50% earnings as dividends. From that he infers that FY14 will be at least 13c dividend implying 26c eps! Paraphrased, but I think that's what he was saying as I haven't gone back to reread it.

So I wonder if anyone here added a few more during this plunge? I did @ 2.26, 1.70, 1.56 during the June setback, but felt too full to indulge this time. I would probably add if something tripped the price down to 1.50. Support held well at 1.75 last two trading days.
It was a pretty good argument for adding between 1.75-1.80 given the upcoming 7c dividend and the pretty sure divs in FY14 amounting to a good 13 mth yield

Skaffold has drastically lowered its valuation for FY14 but who cares what they think? Intrinsic value of only 1.52 for FY14 and 2.32 FY15. They've been all over the joint valuing CDA in the last 6 months or so. The two analysts feeding the earnings estimate in for Skaffold's valuation seem just reactive rather than prophetic at all. They are pretty united now in their estimate of 15-16c eps for FY14, but more varied 19-22c eps FY15. I give them almost no credence now.

A GOLD RUSH FOR CODAN?
August 26, 2013 BY RUSSELL MULDOON
Montgomery Fund
http://rogermontgomery.com/a-gold-rush-for-codan/

galumay
11th-September-2013, 03:29 PM
Wonder what the bad news is this time! Its down over 10% the last couple of days.

Ves
25th-October-2013, 01:41 PM
Looks like management is still trying to talk themselves and the companies prospects up in the AGM, although, it does appear that it is losing it's lustre (as it always does) when the market realises that the company is really a lot more cyclical (and not defensive) as it previously thought.

Profit guidance 1H2014 is $10m. But it could go $3m either way. I'm not even sure why they bothered giving guidance. It seems like it's such a moving target with this company - very hard to get an idea of their long-term prospects (communications looks like it is in a tailspin to me, and the Minelab business hinges on everything going right politically and socially in Africa).

ValueSnatcher
10th-December-2013, 09:51 AM
The SP action had been leading the downgrade which is on the way today (in a trading halt pending announcement).

It really has been noticeable to see the difference in good and bad management of certain companies over the past 12 months.
Pretty easy to go back and look at companies like CDA which are consistently misleading investors (CIX is another good example)...pretty hard to invest on a LT fundamental basis when you cannot trust those running your investment. I've learnt to make this one of my top criterion for getting out - as soon as I get a whiff of untrustworthy management...I am gone like the wind..

skc
10th-December-2013, 01:58 PM
The SP action had been leading the downgrade which is on the way today (in a trading halt pending announcement).

It really has been noticeable to see the difference in good and bad management of certain companies over the past 12 months.
Pretty easy to go back and look at companies like CDA which are consistently misleading investors (CIX is another good example)...pretty hard to invest on a LT fundamental basis when you cannot trust those running your investment. I've learnt to make this one of my top criterion for getting out - as soon as I get a whiff of untrustworthy management...I am gone like the wind..

Who says you can't find repeatable patterns in charts...

55757

P.S. Agree with CIX. Forecast guidance was reaffirmed a few times before they came out with the truth. Management was either lying or ignorant or both...

So_Cynical
10th-December-2013, 07:33 PM
Who says you can't find repeatable patterns in charts...

55757


The volume spikes are trending down to...long term seller exhaustion? :)

Grumpyoldman
11th-December-2013, 10:49 AM
Hi
I am still holding Codan -currently taking a bath.
Any suggestions?



Here's a link for the Russell Muldoon particle at Roger Montgomery's blog. You can read it yourself of course but in summary he suspects management is now erring on the side of caution in expressing its outlook, and he draws an inference from the company stating that it takes seriously its progressive payout of at least 50% earnings as dividends. From that he infers that FY14 will be at least 13c dividend implying 26c eps! Paraphrased, but I think that's what he was saying as I haven't gone back to reread it.

So I wonder if anyone here added a few more during this plunge? I did @ 2.26, 1.70, 1.56 during the June setback, but felt too full to indulge this time. I would probably add if something tripped the price down to 1.50. Support held well at 1.75 last two trading days.
It was a pretty good argument for adding between 1.75-1.80 given the upcoming 7c dividend and the pretty sure divs in FY14 amounting to a good 13 mth yield

Skaffold has drastically lowered its valuation for FY14 but who cares what they think? Intrinsic value of only 1.52 for FY14 and 2.32 FY15. They've been all over the joint valuing CDA in the last 6 months or so. The two analysts feeding the earnings estimate in for Skaffold's valuation seem just reactive rather than prophetic at all. They are pretty united now in their estimate of 15-16c eps for FY14, but more varied 19-22c eps FY15. I give them almost no credence now.

A GOLD RUSH FOR CODAN?
August 26, 2013 BY RUSSELL MULDOON
Montgomery Fund
http://rogermontgomery.com/a-gold-rush-for-codan/

ValueSnatcher
11th-December-2013, 12:05 PM
Hi
I am still holding Codan -currently taking a bath.
Any suggestions?

Remember back to the day you bought and ask yourself - what was it that made you buy.

Now zoom back to the present, does that reason still stand? What has changed? If you answer this question you will have a better understanding of what to do.

If you didnt own the shares, would you buy today?

Valued
11th-December-2013, 01:38 PM
It looks like a trading halt until tomorrow. If there is a panic sell on the back of a bad announcement it might be something worth while to pick up.

skc
11th-December-2013, 02:40 PM
The volume spikes are trending down to...long term seller exhaustion? :)

Wait till the volume spike upon re-open...

finicky
11th-December-2013, 08:49 PM
Hi
I am still holding Codan -currently taking a bath.
Any suggestions?

Sorry I rabbited on about this one now. I'm still in with all our shares and losing now from an average of around 1.60 at a guess. I've no idea of how it will be hit tomorrow but I'll be there peering at the ASX Price Sensitive Announcements well before the market opens. You can watch it here on the front page if you're of that mind:
http://www.asx.com.au/

No point worrying, the die is cast and personally I'm open to the option of adding if the shares are being 'thrown away'. That'll be a very subjective judgement, but I'm not fussy, just a tiny profit forecast for first half and expectation of H2 improvement will do me now in my humbled mood. Nothing tomorrow will make me sell, put it that way.

I'm telling myself that this has always been a quality company even though it has performed badly during a few years. It has turned a profit and paid a dividend every year of of the past ten.

GLAH

ROE
12th-December-2013, 10:10 AM
Load up at open 67c yeah .... Sold close to $2 not long ago

finicky
12th-December-2013, 11:21 AM
So Low of 63c since open on unprecedented daily volume with 1 hr of trading

I got up late!

$4m to $5m NPAT guidance H1

Take lower figure

If assume dismal performance repeated H2

Then $8m spread acros 177m shares

eps = 4.5c

Assume things will not radically improve in future years but not get worse ...

Apply P/E of 8

8 x 4.5 = 36c per share

The market's being generous! Paying a premium for growth prospects from this level of profit?

Valued
12th-December-2013, 11:26 AM
So Low of 63c since open on unprecedented daily volume with 1 hr of trading

I got up late!

$4m to $5m NPAT guidance H1

Take lower figure

If assume dismal performance repeated H2

Then $8m spread acros 177m shares

eps = 4.5c

Assume things will not radically improve in future years but not get worse ...

Apply P/E of 8

8 x 4.5 = 36c per share

The market's being generous! Paying a premium for growth prospects from this level of profit?

If gold mining is disrupted in Africa right now due to unrest etc the gold isn't going anywhere. It's just postponing the level of gold detection devices that will later be needed.

I also don't think P/E is a good way to value a company. You're just hoping the market pays enough attention to P/E and bases it's decisions on that ratio. I don't think this is true.

finicky
12th-December-2013, 11:44 AM
You're just hoping the market pays enough attention to P/E and bases it's decisions on that ratio.

I use P/E for a rough look. It took me a couple of minutes while I was deciding whether to jump in. I'm not hoping for a lower price, I'm holding what for me are a lot of shares

Valued
12th-December-2013, 11:52 AM
I use P/E for a rough look. It took me a couple of minutes while I was deciding whether to jump in. I'm not hoping for a lower price, I'm holding what for me are a lot of shares

I guess. The thing with P/E ratios is it's an indicator of perhaps what people may pay for a certain stock or a certain sector but it doesn't really tell you about the value of the company. There is cause and effect and I think P/E is the effect. I don't really like it that much. I think 36c as a target for this stock would be significantly undervalued. Of course, if you think gold detector sales will fall drastically then the stock would not be worth anything to you.

By the way, I should point out, that I don't really know that much about this company. I have never owned shares in it before today. It just looked like a sweet day trade. It's a shame I didn't have much money to put in. I hate when people owe me money and don't pay on time, costs me more than they realise. I bought at 0.67 though, so far so good:)

Valued
12th-December-2013, 01:17 PM
Out at 0.80 for a 15.6% profit after brokerage. Sellers were picking up a lot of volume and once I hit 0.84 I set a stop loss at 0.80 since I figured if it dropped that low 0.80 wouldn't act as support just looking at the market depth but at the same time the price could continue to bounce upwards. Buyer's volume was pretty thin at that price range compared to the sellers though. Unfortunately, a new buyer did not come along. I don't think the stock will close any higher than 0.80 today. Time will tell if I should have made more money but I think I got out at the right time. Since we are down to 0.785 the 0.80 mark was no support like I predicted so I think I made the right choice:)

Valued
12th-December-2013, 04:28 PM
I was wrong. It closed half a cent higher! Ah well, I think I will sleep tonight anyway:)

jancha
12th-December-2013, 05:35 PM
I was wrong. It closed half a cent higher! Ah well, I think I will sleep tonight anyway:)

Ah but what will tomorrow bring?
Look how OZL finished.

Valued
12th-December-2013, 11:08 PM
Ah but what will tomorrow bring?
Look how OZL finished.

It's true that the stock may go up tomorrow. It may also go down. At the point of time I sold I thought that the price was going to go down. 0.80 looked like it was serving as support for a little while this morning (after serving as a resistance before that - which you can see on commsec course of sales) but then the market depth for that support was poor. The buyers had very little volume in the 0.79 - 0.8x range compared with the seller's volume. The only thing that could have saved the support falling was a large buyer of a good volume (maybe 50k or so) but I wasn't going to bank on that happening so I sold. I was correct that it did fall below 0.80c but then over the course of of three more hours it bounced back to 0.805. I couldn't have known about the half cent at the time making my decision to sell a correct one.

If it looks like the price will trend upwards tomorrow there is no reason why I can't buy again anyway. I doubt I will though. I only like to day trade if I get to buy in at around fair value where a stock is likely to bounce back or trend upwards that will exceed a 5% return. I thought CDA was trading at approximately fair value at 0.67 given their reduced forecasts. I now think the stock is overvalued so I am cautious.

jancha
13th-December-2013, 02:25 PM
It's true that the stock may go up tomorrow. It may also go down. At the point of time I sold I thought that the price was going to go down. 0.80 looked like it was serving as support for a little while this morning (after serving as a resistance before that - which you can see on commsec course of sales) but then the market depth for that support was poor. The buyers had very little volume in the 0.79 - 0.8x range compared with the seller's volume. The only thing that could have saved the support falling was a large buyer of a good volume (maybe 50k or so) but I wasn't going to bank on that happening so I sold. I was correct that it did fall below 0.80c but then over the course of of three more hours it bounced back to 0.805. I couldn't have known about the half cent at the time making my decision to sell a correct one.

If it looks like the price will trend upwards tomorrow there is no reason why I can't buy again anyway. I doubt I will though. I only like to day trade if I get to buy in at around fair value where a stock is likely to bounce back or trend upwards that will exceed a 5% return. I thought CDA was trading at approximately fair value at 0.67 given their reduced forecasts. I now think the stock is overvalued so I am cautious.

Good reasoning's for your decision on selling at that point. I was a little concerned also when it started falling from the 80c support but happier when it closed at 80.5c. Sold at 89.5c today but I must admit I was taking a bit of a gamble not selling at the point when you did.

Valued
13th-December-2013, 03:58 PM
Good reasoning's for your decision on selling at that point. I was a little concerned also when it started falling from the 80c support but happier when it closed at 80.5c. Sold at 89.5c today but I must admit I was taking a bit of a gamble not selling at the point when you did.

Yea. I didn't expect the market to run that far today. I missed the morning open. I am in Qld so open is at 9am and it took me to 9:12am to log on and by that time it was already up a fair bit. I wish I was able to get in at 8:55am to see how things looked and maybe jumped on again for a quick return.

I think it has to fall below 0.80 though again. Given their forecasts for next year the stock is not worth what it's currently selling at. I don't see how the market is so bullish about this company from a value perspective. I suspect a lot of people are averaging down instead of cutting their loss. I think it will take some years for the company to bounce back. They arn't even putting their new detector on the market until 2015 and it's targeted at the retail market so it's hard to predict sales.

I was always bearish on this one though. I thought gold detectors and radios seemed like a rather sketchy business to begin with which is why I never invested. I like businesses where I can walk in and see the lines of customers buying products and services that make sense in my mind for them to buy.

So_Cynical
20th-February-2014, 09:44 PM
I think it has to fall below 0.80 though again. Given their forecasts for next year the stock is not worth what it's currently selling at.

Traded at 0.79 today...still profitable and a solid little niche business, debt is up a bit but costs are down.

Double bottom coming up?

galumay
20th-February-2014, 10:13 PM
I hold - and my entry was a long way north of where it is now. Perhaps oddly, I am not too concerned, i reckon they are around their IV at 80c given the current state of their business, the results delivered today where well and truly flagged in advance so there were no surprises for me.

The next 12 months will be critical to the future of the company I believe, they are still in reasonable shape if they can turn the business around and increase earnings again, I dont mind holding companies like this where I can see a potential improvement and I think they have reached the bottom of a cyclic market while keeping their heads above water. (Well, i dont mind holding one company like this! wouldnt want too many more in the portfolio!)

Ves
21st-February-2014, 01:38 PM
Is it just me or does that debt on the balance sheet stand out like a sore thumb?

It would be a real problem if the most recent CDA profitability slide isn't a cyclical down turn, but a return to normality and the prior years of higher profitability were outliers / aberrations.

Even if the answer lies somewhere in between, the chances of a liquidity event (ie. a capital raising) are probably much higher than they were 12 months ago.

ValueSnatcher
21st-February-2014, 01:52 PM
Debt needs to be refinanced this year too...:eek:

skc
21st-February-2014, 03:03 PM
Debt needs to be refinanced this year too...:eek:

It's being priced by the market like a capital raising is coming.

$6.5m cash, $20m receivables, $43m inventory vs $15m payables and $71m debt.

Operating cash flow -$16.9m vs +$22.8m a year ago, plus another $10m outflow for investing.

If they could reduce production (I have no idea how varable their production profile is) and clear some inventory and pay down the debt... May be they should have just put the dividend on hold. It's always sad to see some management attempts to keep up with appearance rathen than accepting it's time to conserve a bit of cash.

systematic
21st-February-2014, 03:11 PM
Possible 'value trap' (and therefore 'avoid') for mine, and that's before today's performance.

So_Cynical
21st-February-2014, 08:14 PM
Double bottom coming up?

Yesterday i raised the possibility and today it almost came true, 52 week low (the 1st Bottom) was 0.63c

Still a great little business and now we get a chance to get in cheap before the next POG run up.

tinhat
21st-February-2014, 09:51 PM
Still a great little business and now we get a chance to get in cheap before the next POG run up.

... starting sometime around 2030.

So_Cynical
21st-February-2014, 10:26 PM
... starting sometime around 2030.

Some would say that the next run has started...double bottom $1190 is in.

tinhat
21st-February-2014, 10:48 PM
Some would say that the next run has started...double bottom $1190 is in.

I'm also hopeful that we are seeing a correction in the price of gold as I am currently holding SLR and MML. But who knows how long it will last and what the outlook is? Gold might settle into a trading range between $1200-$1400 in the medium term. It might go lower and we will see mines getting mothballed all over the globe and little exploration. Who knows. That's the problem with being in an industry that is leveraged to the underlying commodity especially at the exploration end of the industry.

Is there anything about the fundamentals, industry outlook, or the chart that suggests this stock is at or near the bottom? 12/12/13 does have a look of capitulation to it. I don't follow it and don't know it in detail.

So_Cynical
21st-February-2014, 11:03 PM
Is there anything about the fundamentals, industry outlook, or the chart that suggests this stock is at or near the bottom? 12/12/13 does have a look of capitulation to it. I don't follow it and don't know it in detail.

They make metal detectors that are sold predominantly to people looking for gold in one form or another, therefore their fortunes are linked to POG movement and sentiment....pick bottom for POG and buy Codan at close to the low point and wait.

Personally i sold out of Gold stocks about 2 years ago..figured the top was in about 6 months before the actual top...go figure.

ROE
24th-February-2014, 10:28 AM
Current price worth a shot ... It operates in a Niche market and the other business need a bit of time to pick up speed ... Probably over sold in my opinion...

pixel
7th-April-2014, 01:16 PM
Current price worth a shot ... It operates in a Niche market and the other business need a bit of time to pick up speed ... Probably over sold in my opinion...

Agree, ROE;
while still below the falling trendline, my scanner picked it up this morning, noting the strengthening volume and Bullish Divergence in the momentum window.

57486

Alert set for break above 72c.