USDCAD Looney

[Kauri]

Does anyone else trade the Looney... looks like the recent drop may be over going by my E/W outlook, unless of course it turns out to be a 5 wave leg??

[telstrareg]

Looking at the monthly charts, the market is currently sitting on support from the year...1991! When talking about these massive time frames it's probably good to look to the fundamental. Ie what has been driving is down since 2002, and is this pressure still present?

Back in 91 the market changed direction for the next 10 years without wavering. However this looks different. The sudden drops every year or so have been very strong.

There is little doubt in my mind that it's going down.

[Kauri]

Going on the Weekly chart covering the last 5 years decline I see it as being in the (early??) stages of W(5)... and on the daily of the past 3 months it is in the area where the longish 3rd wave could turn..

[Kauri]

Closed out the short and taken a long position looking for a W4..

[telstrareg]

I was thinking short medium term, not overnight. Your right, long term it looks like it's turning, but there's some still some downside, methinks. Make sure you trade the timeframe you seek to profit from.

[Kauri]

I was thinking short medium term, not overnight. Your right, long term it looks like it's turning, but there's some still some downside, methinks. Make sure you trade the timeframe you seek to profit from.

Surely the timeframe I trade in is the the timeframe I try to profit from?
The weekly chart gives me an overall larger picture of where I am at in the daily. Longterm (weekly), unless the 5th wave is shortened, I see that there is still a ways to go down. Possibly by being a little more agressive in my trading style, that doesn't exclude me from long trades on possible corrections to that longer trend when everything lines up, regardless of my overall short bias.

[telstrareg]

What I was getting at was the fact that some people who have a long term view then expect the market to behave that way in the short term and trade accordingly. Eg it's easy to take a big hit on the 30min trend while on the monthly trend the market will move just as you predicted.

[Kauri]

What I was getting at was the fact that some people who have a long term view then expect the market to behave that way in the short term and trade accordingly. Eg it's easy to take a big hit on the 30min trend while on the monthly trend the market will move just as you predicted.

Telstra.. You are quite right, as my wife would/will say.. What were you thinking of.. :D .. Long term I still think the Loonie has away to go down yet, and still I cut a good trade to try to grab a couple of RR points on a minor countertrend which may not even eventuate :banghead: Going through my records, particularly FX, I have been doing it quite a bit lately, is impacting negatively on my drawdown and overall RR multiples, so it is something I will have to eliminate from my trading. Amazing how a couple of early minor short-term successes trading this way has allowed it to become part of my trading style!!! Genuine thanks for the timely reminder. :)
Now it's time to see if the downtrend resumes and if there is a valid entry point so I can rejoin the trade.
Cheers
Kauri

[reece55]

Kauri/Telstra
Been playing around with FX of late and last night this pair bounced off the 1.11 support line nicely, about 100 pips on the board last night. I think there is still pips available on the upside from here, but you would need t acknowledge that this is a counter trend trade and it would prudent to take quick pips here...

I take Telstra's point about be conscious of trading to the time frame you want and reviewing the trend accordingly. The more I learn about FX, more I notice that trading on different time frames (15, 30 mins or longer term i.e daily to hourly) can cause you to take different positions in the market. For the meanwhile however, I am focusing on taking small pip profits and therefore was happy with the USD/CAD long accordingly.

Cheers
Reece

[telstrareg]

To tell you the truth, I was kind of suckered into giving my opinion on which way this will go, I almost never give opinions anymore, even to myself. The longer I trade the less I think about "which way the market is going to go" and the more I think about just managing my money. Stops, letting winners run, scaling my positions according to these factors.

I'd like to think I could make a long term profit by throwing darts at charts, flipping a coin for long or short and then just managing whatever positions I happen to be in. I can't control or predict the markets, but I can control the above.

[telstrareg]

...never-the-less it looks like I was on the money :)

[Kauri]

Having successfully taken myself out of a winning trade by breaking all my trading rules by trying firstly to pick a bottom and secondly unsuccessfully trade a countertrend I have watched with wry amusement :o as the Loonie has continued relentlessly south, without me.... now it looks like it is in the typical area price and timewise for W5 to complete if of course my labelling is correct??).... guess who isn't trying a countertrend trade this time!! :) Will watch and see if it rises first instead of sagging like an undercooked soufle.....

[reece55]

Kauri
What a decline - incredible how far south it has gone......

The head of fxbootcamp.com (I think it's Wayne someone) said in the latest free teleconference that his view is that unless the US finds a huge oil reserve in the foreseeable future, this thing will just keep going south......

I guess for you it just proves that keeping to the plan is the most important thing and that regardless of what your biases are, sometime the EW count and review of the chart is the most important thing.

Still, if you managed to get a few pips here and learned something out it, then I think you won big time here.......

Cheers

[Kauri]

Kauri
What a decline - incredible how far south it has gone......

The head of fxbootcamp.com (I think it's Wayne someone) said in the latest free teleconference that his view is that unless the US finds a huge oil reserve in the foreseeable future, this thing will just keep going south......

I guess for you it just proves that keeping to the plan is the most important thing and that regardless of what your biases are, sometime the EW count and review of the chart is the most important thing.

Still, if you managed to get a few pips here and learned something out it, then I think you won big time here.......

Cheers

Reece,
The re-inforcement of my trade rules is the most valuable.... incidentally, allowing that my count on the weekly is correct, parity is by no means out of the equation.... ahhhh .. the wry amusement just keeps getting better and better.. :D

[telstrareg]

Looney has been great, but CADJPY even better with the carry.

[Kauri]

Might be a long on the 60 min. coming up on the Loonie...
Cheers
........Kauri

[Kauri]

13 Aug. Might be a long on the 60 min. coming up on the Loonie...
Cheers
........Kauri

Well the first entry at 50-60% ret bombed, the next at the 78% has come in well so far...
Cheers
...Kauri

[Kauri]

I'm not banking on it but this may be a good place for a shallow minor W3-W4 consolidation.....
Cheers
....Kauri

[Kauri]

At an interesting stage on the daily.... although the 60Min chart shows no signs of pausing.. :)
Cheers
.....Kauri

[Kauri]

My short term part of the trade has been closed now.. am leaving the longer term part open as this may develop from a W1orA = W3orC into a 5 minor wave W3orC that is 162%....
Cheers
....Kauri

[Kauri]

Ooops.. might pay to put up the latest chart for the last post...

[canaussieuck]

Nice H&S pattern here.

[>Apocalypto<]

Fellow Looney's,

Why do they call it the Looney?

After shorting it, Looney found support plus touched and bounced off the new up trend line on daily to form another higher low.

I have gone long, stops under the trend line.

Green arrow is my entry bar (today)

One point to note, it looks like a creeping trend so I am not sure how strong this new push is.

Good trading.

[canaussieuck]

Looney, because the animal on the coin is a Loon, like a large duck, except with a pointed bill for fishing like a king fisher...its black with white speckles, and has a real nice call that one associates with a mirror lake in the early morning, a slight misty fog burning off......good grief, i must be missing home!

[tayser]

and here's me thinking it's the Canuckers taking the piss out of themselves & their currency's 'lunacy' against the USD...

snort.

[reece55]

All the way down to 93.70, doesn't seem that long ago that I was trading this one at above 1.05............. This has been a dramatic move down, there just seems to be no end to this downtrend......

GO THE LOONEY!!!!

Cheers

[tayser]

think of all those lucky Canadians who straddle the US border (like 90% of the population?) and can go shopping in their nearest US shopping centre. Big spenders.

[ithatheekret]

Isn't it strange ( not ) that most currencies are crushing option barriers . These are taken out by the "smart money " and volatility is squashing them one after the other . Then they happily retreat ....... for breathers and then dash back up the hill . Amazing markets to watch , pip by pip if you can keep up with them nowdays , I use to place markers on the screen for my charts , but can't get them up fast enough nowdays .

[ithatheekret]

Should say entered to go against the option @ 102 . , thought what the
h3ck , heard t'was an Aussie bank too , hopefully recoup some of my fees :D

[ithatheekret]

just blew the 30 sec chart up ... from the last 102. push we seem to be beginning to form a cup after the retreat .............
30/15min shows beginning of slight bounce , as does 5 min , but ....... hourly and 3 hrly are moo time

30 sec says moo to me also .

all systems set for 102 attack again , banks must hate dealers and traders :D

[ithatheekret]

Yep 102.15's they didn't like that :p: anyone game to look forward for a 105 in the coming sessions

[ithatheekret]

I hope that's not NAB traders again , sophisticated crooks that last mob they caught . Nah ......... Stewart would have them pinned to a wall . Because they are above cloud looking down at a good chart .

[ithatheekret]

This swap has my attention once more , the shoving effect slowing a little .

[ithatheekret]

update :

[ithatheekret]

another drop punt tonight ......... going for field goals this swap , rolls back then let's go , they'll get the hammer out again soon .

[ithatheekret]

Do we have a ground floor ................. shirts , undies and thongs .

[ithatheekret]

With a twist , hold the olive .

[ithatheekret]

added to the poz. to see if it can keep the usual up , noting it's around the 68/69 area again , will probably bounce about here .

[ithatheekret]

last update , couldn't be stuffed waiting for parity again , stage left and bed soon .

[ithatheekret]

waiting to see if it can get down to 9935ish this time .

[ithatheekret]

had a go at it ......... 9028/29 to set . tight trailer I thunk .

[Kauri]

had a go at it ......... 9028/29 to set . tight trailer I thunk .

speculation that there maybe another 1.0000 USD/CAD expiry today

By the way.... UBS apparently has its minions stormin around madly trying to find out how to pronounce ABU Dhabi in high german... :confused:
Cheers
,....Kauri

[ithatheekret]

That's easy .......

sofortiges Geld , naaah , nein , freie Dirhams , naaah , nein , kostspielige Dirhams , ja ist das es .


......... normales altes Abu Dhabi tut zwar .

[ithatheekret]

update , c'mon Kauri show em some of your trades , he's hiding a bonza POG short from the other day , whack up with the glossie mate ........ :p:

[Kauri]

update , c'mon Kauri show em some of your trades , he's hiding a bonza POG short from the other day , whack up with the glossie mate ........ :p:

Who me???

[ithatheekret]

Nearly plonk time for me ..........

update , watching this test area from last push .... oops too late it popped up again .

[ithatheekret]

better view , get's the rumbles this one .

[ithatheekret]

update : rumble she did ...... look for next set up or continue the main ride ?

I might tempt fate .

[ithatheekret]

This had been a great trade tonight , closing some now , will retain and see if parity comes back quick .

[ithatheekret]

she's off again , come on parity . word of the year .

[ithatheekret]

Bought the run up . closed bar dregs . Now the fight for parity .

[ithatheekret]

parity again , one day it might decide to keep going again .

[BentRod]

Loonie looks like it is finally breaking out of that range it has been stuck in since last year.

Will have to wait till the USD interest rate decision to see if there is any follow through I suppose:confused:

[BentRod]

USDCAD Daily.

[BentRod]

Up she goes

Looking Parabolic though :eek:

[Investor123]

Canada Dollar Declines as Crude Oil Drops

Canada's currency fell after crude oil dropped to a five-month low and the U.S. dollar rose against other major currencies.

The Canadian dollar traded at C$1.0689 against its U.S. counterpart at 10:38 a.m., down 0.2 percent from yesterday's C$1.0667.

Crude oil for October delivery touched $105.46 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, the lowest since April 4, as Hurricane Gustav spared U.S. Gulf states the destruction caused by Katrina and Rita in 2005. Commodities, including oil, account for about half of Canada's export revenue.

The Bank of Canada meets tomorrow on interest rates.

Lower crude price is one of the things causing weakness in the Canadian dollar.

My trading system signals BUY for USDCAD.

Bought 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0714
Stop level at 1.0610
Target level at 1.0908

[Investor123]

Yesterday I had bought 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0714, stop level at 1.0610, target level at 1.0908.

USDCAD is trading at 1.0759, profit is up 61 pips, US$56.81.

Resistance level at 1.0750 had broken, so USDCAD has the potential to rise higher.

Today Bank of Canada will announce their interest rate decision. If there is interest rate cut announcement today, we can see USDCAD rising much higher.

My trading system is still signal BUY for USDCAD.

[Kauri]

Yesterday I had bought 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0714, stop level at 1.0610, target level at 1.0908.


My trading system is still signal BUY for USDCAD.

mine isn't... :eek:
Cheers
............Kauri

[Investor123]

My System signals SELL for USDCAD

Canada's dollar advanced after a government report showed the nation's employers added more jobs in August than economists forecast, indicating the Bank of Canada may refrain from cutting borrowing costs next month.

The currency remained higher after a report showed the U.S.
lost more jobs than forecast in August and the unemployment rate climbed to a five-year high.

Both Stochastic and Comm Channel signals SELL for USDCAD

Shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654
Stop level at 1.0785
Target level at 1.0487

[BentRod]

Shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654
Stop level at 1.0785
Target level at 1.0487

Good luck with the trade.

Personally I'm looking for a long to add to my position but standing aside with all this volatility.

I've already tried twice but have been stopped out after a good profit both times.
The ranges on this thing!:eek:

[Investor123]

Good luck with the trade.

Personally I'm looking for a long to add to my position but standing aside with all this volatility.

I've already tried twice but have been stopped out after a good profit both times.
The ranges on this thing!:eek:

Good luck to you too. :)

[Investor123]

On 5 September I had shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654, stop level at 1.0785, target level at 1.0487.

USDCAD had moved in my favour to 1.0571, profit is up 83 pips, US$77.62.

Non-farm payrolls fell by -84k last month, driving the unemployment rate to a 5 yeer high of 6.1 percent. This signals that US economy is getting very near to recession stage. Weak US economic data may weaken USD temporary.

My system is still signal SELL for USDCAD.

I had removed my stop level at 1.0785 and set a 30 pips trailing stop instead.

Trailing stop ensures that some profit is secured in this trade. With trailing stop, my stop-loss order is adjusted continually based on fluctuations in the market price, always maintaining 30 pips above the market price.

[Investor123]

On 5 September I had shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654, stop level at 1.0785, target level at 1.0487.

USDCAD had moved in my favour to 1.0571, profit is up 83 pips, US$77.62.

Non-farm payrolls fell by -84k last month, driving the unemployment rate to a 5 yeer high of 6.1 percent. This signals that US economy is getting very near to recession stage. Weak US economic data may weaken USD temporary.

My system is still signal SELL for USDCAD.

I had removed my stop level at 1.0785 and set a 30 pips trailing stop instead.

Trailing stop ensures that some profit is secured in this trade. With trailing stop, my stop-loss order is adjusted continually based on fluctuations in the market price, always maintaining 30 pips above the market price.

Support level at 1.0550 creates a rebound for USDCAD, not taking any chance I decide to take profit first.

Bought back USDCAD at 1.0570, profit is up 84 pips, US$78.57.

[Kauri]

On 5 September I had shorted 10,000 USDCAD at 1.0654, stop level at 1.0785, target level at 1.0487.

USDCAD had moved in my favour to 1.0571, profit is up 83 pips, US$77.62.

Non-farm payrolls fell by -84k last month, driving the unemployment rate to a 5 yeer high of 6.1 percent. This signals that US economy is getting very near to recession stage. Weak US economic data may weaken USD temporary.

My system is still signal SELL for USDCAD.

I had removed my stop level at 1.0785 and set a 30 pips trailing stop instead.

Trailing stop ensures that some profit is secured in this trade. With trailing stop, my stop-loss order is adjusted continually based on fluctuations in the market price, always maintaining 30 pips above the market price.

looking at the charts now... well dun...

cute :rolleyes:

Beers
............kauri

[Investor123]

I had switched to shorting USDJPY:

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=7996&page=12

[kosai]

Just found this thread and thought I may as well post my chart. Here's where I shorted the looney after it broke the multipivot line and tested it at the red circle. Stop is the red line and target is the green one. If volume gives me a decisive enough pattern I'll bail. I don't like trailing stops, I just let the market ride it out but my stop is at break even so that my risk is zero.

[kosai]

I'll also include my Alan Andrews Pitchfork chart here. I use this for context along with a 40 period moving average on volume for a reference. Any oscillator will be giving a divergent signal here and those 3 distinctive spikes of the candle are often found on instruments that top. Note the massive volume too. On a weekly time frame it is setting up for a big move. Either way the area is likely to be tested again as multiple tests often occur before the market advances/declines.

[BentRod]

USDCAD finally broke out to new highs.

I tried to get set for it but got stopped out mostly:(

Daily:

[Stormin_Norman]

luckily it bounced off that top and allowed the bunjip to get out of the long trade's itd been in since saturday morning.

it looks like pushing up again now.

bad housing data is what encouraged the rise.

[>Apocalypto<]

I'll also include my Alan Andrews Pitchfork chart here. I use this for context along with a 40 period moving average on volume for a reference. Any oscillator will be giving a divergent signal here and those 3 distinctive spikes of the candle are often found on instruments that top. Note the massive volume too. On a weekly time frame it is setting up for a big move. Either way the area is likely to be tested again as multiple tests often occur before the market advances/declines.

hi Kosai,

I take it that chart is from MT4. Please don't get to warped up with volume displayed by your brokers, as it's inaccurate. Spot Forex has no central exchange so there is no real verified volume for the period your looking at.

Most of the times the Mt4 broker will display their liquidity providers volume and that's hardly accurate either.

if it's from the currency Futs then that's a different story.

Cheers

[i_in]

we have double top and 50% fibo !

[i_in]

short 1.14 stop 1.1480 target first time 1.06
I'll post my count lather
GL

[Cartman]

short 1.14 stop 1.1480 target first time 1.06
I'll post my count lather
GL

were u shaving while u were trading i-in ?:D

very nice trade btw !!

[i_in]

Thanks Cartman
I move stop on the by
need to break 1.2250 end then 1.11, next target 1.06

[i_in]

now need to break 1.1210 to move down - 1.11 1.06....

[Glen48]

I found a good web site Mataf.net they seem good so far????