Couldnt find a good title for the thread, but basically taking a long term view, which currency has the best outlook against AUD?
Im guessing not the Greenback, but which is the pick from the others?
And no -its NOT coz i wanna trade currencies with a buy and hold approach Buffet styles... ! LOL :D
Its coz im thinking of trading international shares, and i dont wanna be completely shafted when i convert back to AUD in 10-20 years time.
I guess i can always trade currencies as well but thats another thing to learn.......
Thoughts??
wayneL
19th-April-2007, 06:22 PM
Couldnt find a good title for the thread, but basically taking a long term view, which currency has the best outlook against AUD?
Im guessing not the Greenback, but which is the pick from the others?
And no -its NOT coz i wanna trade currencies with a buy and hold approach Buffet styles... ! LOL :D
Its coz im thinking of trading international shares, and i dont wanna be completely shafted when i convert back to AUD in 10-20 years time.
I guess i can always trade currencies as well but thats another thing to learn.......
Thoughts??
Long term prediction of currencies is too hard IMO
Pick the stock market you like best and hedge your Ozzie $s
eg buy AUD100k worth of Jap stocks, then long 100k worth of AUD/JPY on forex. You will have cost of carry on the currency deal, but you are hedged.
That's one way:2twocents
nizar
19th-April-2007, 06:33 PM
Long term prediction of currencies is too hard IMO
Pick the stock market you like best and hedge your Ozzie $s
eg buy AUD100k worth of Jap stocks, then long 100k worth of AUD/JPY on forex. You will have cost of carry on the currency deal, but you are hedged.
That's one way:2twocents
Good idea.
Yeh i know, forex trading is just from charts and trends. Fundamentals are far too complex.
But you would at least agree that USD is the most doomed compared to the rest?
wayneL
19th-April-2007, 06:42 PM
Good idea.
Yeh i know, forex trading is just from charts and trends. Fundamentals are far too complex.
But you would at least agree that USD is the most doomed compared to the rest?
So it would seem. What is disturbing about that is that it is a view almost universally held, apart from US government shills like Larry Kudlow.
The fundamentals are dreadful. However, the fundamentals of the AUD & GBP (particularly GBP) are infested with pox as well, and they are racing away against the USD.
On the same vein, CHF is a very sound currency fundamentally yet is not doing so well.
It's more to do with the flow of money than fundamentals IMO. This could change at any time.
