QBE - QBE Insurance Group

[markrmau]

Do your own research, but qbe may be in for a run next week.

However yesterday/today someone is unloading a lot of stock. It may finish in low 60's today. I'm in for $34k.

[tech/a]

That'd be nice.
Had it since $7.85 myself.
Nothing indicates a move either way to me currently.
Crystals in my ball must be flat.

[markrmau]

Assuming yahoo's feed was ok (not always), about 250k shares uptick on close.

http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=QBE.AX&d=c&k=c1&a=v&p=s&t=1d&l=off&z=m&q=b

[Lucstar]

"Had it since $7.85 myself." - tech

Wow. Thats a $5.88 earnings per share. I'm guessing u bought in some time in 2002. Nice pocketing

[still_in_school]

Hi Markmau,

im not quite sure yet if QBE is set for a run quite yet... still a little to early for me to enter... but i was going to short this stock the other day (yet... another opportunity came up...) though if i was shorting this stock, i would have exited out today...

though still a little to early for me to enter, but QBE is a stock on my radar for shorting, though, if there is good news coming out and the technical changes.. i might join you and go long on the stock...

... though still to early for me to enter...

Cheers,
sis

[tech/a]

Lucstar

You can see how the Techtrader portfolio is running on a weekly basis here if interested.
Been trading this for the last 2 and a bit yrs,click on link at top of thread to go back to past weeks/months results.
http://www.reefcap.com/ubb/Forum8/HTML/000390.html

Got a few like that actually sold CTX today after many months.

tech

[Lucstar]

Thanks for the link tech.

"but i was going to short this stock" SIS

What's the meaning of Short Stocking ?? It sounds interesting.

[tech/a]

Shorting is simply selling the stock at a price and hopefully buying it back at a lower price.
Normally this is done buyborrowing someone elses stock and selling it.
If this goes well you buy it back at a lower price and you pocket the difference,after returning the stock to its owner.
If the stock continues to rise you have to pay the owner the profit he looses and if the stock being borrowed goes EX dividend you also have to pay the owner the dividend,plus the broker his fees.

Tricom can arrange shorts on a good range of stocks.

tech

[still_in_school]

Hi Lucstar,

Short Stocking - exactly like, how Tech/a describle... :)
its just another from of trading from the usual of:

Buy Low - Sell High instead its Sell High - Buy Low (going short on the market, is much faster too, than the buy and hold, and sell when high...

Cheers,
sis

... though, some people who i talk to, have a story or 2 to tell, and the usual story is, everything i touch goes down... anyway... lol, my joke is, if everything you touch that goes down, short the stock instead...

[positivecashflow]

if everything you touch that goes down, short the stock instead... Or buy the Put :p: ;)

Cheers,

J.

[still_in_school]

Hi PositiveCashFlow,

lol... honestly i was gonna buy puts on QBE, though there isnt enough open interest in the stock... only other option unfortunatly is was short selling... the only problem, with short selling is the potential unlimited loss there is viable...

oh well...

Cheers,
sis

[tech/a]

Hi PositiveCashFlow,

the only problem, with short selling is the potential unlimited loss there is viable...

oh well...

Cheers,
sis

Ke!
How so SIS.
Going long you can have your stock delisted,so to with a short.
You getting confused with options?

tech

[stefan]

Ke!
How so SIS.
Going long you can have your stock delisted,so to with a short.
You getting confused with options?

I assume he was referring to the fact that shorting a stock has unlimited risk because the stock can (in theory) run to the moon while you're short.

If you're long, then the stock can only go to 0. The risk as such is not "unlimited". So if I buy 100 shares long of a $10 stock and it happens to be delisted, then the loss is 100x10 = $1000. If I short the stock at $10 and it happens to run to $55, then my loss is 100x45 with an unlimited potential to increase further. (Yes, it may never reach the moon, but in theory it just might ;) )

Happy trading

Stefan

[tech/a]

Oh IC.

Anyone that held a position that continued to move against them infinitum deserves to be whiped out!

Theoretically correct,in practice stupidity!

Still chances are anyone that thick could average up to average down!!

The mind boggles.

tech

[stefan]

Theoretically correct,in practice stupidity!Then again you should never underestimate the endless power of stupidity. How else can you explain people sending thousands of dollars to complete strangers just because they received an email asking them to do so? The human brain is capable of things beyond believe if you manage to link greed and stupidity. The possibilities of such a powerful combination are endless.

Excuse my excursion into the deep, dark places of the human brain. I shall now return to more serious trading for the rest of the week. :)

Happy trading

Stefan

[markrmau]

I'm not currently holding qbe, but does anyone know what spooked holders at end of day? 1 person offloading about $2M.

[markrmau]

Perhaps qbe was the insurer of santos?

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Breaking-News/Santos-to-get-fire-insurance-payout/2004/12/03/1101923312824.html

[GreatPig]

My 20-minute-delayed opening match prices currently show QBE about to open up more than 8%. Can't see any announcements, but this is unusual for this stock.

Will see what it really opens at in another 10 minutes or so.

Edit: down to 6.7% now, but still 20 minutes behind.

Edit again: Back to less than 1%, so pretty ordinary after all.

Cheers,
GP

[JAK]

Hi all, Is there a specific reason QBE is climbing so fast ? ... extremely curious !

.... I'm certainly not complaining :)

Thanks, JAK

[kennas]

Up 10%!

Not many blue chips do that in a few minutes.

:eek:

[Julia]

In FNArena's Broker Call today several analysts (6 or 7) have come out with a Buy on QBE and a substantially increased target price. There may be some other reason for this increase but I haven't been able to discover it.

Likewise, a similar number of brokers put a Buy on CSL today. I don't hold this but checked it out from curiosity - and it was also up over $3 at time of looking. It's a much more expensive stock though.

Hard to say that what brokers say doesn't matter!

Julia

[kennas]

In FNArena's Broker Call today several analysts (6 or 7) have come out with a Buy on QBE and a substantially increased target price. There may be some other reason for this increase but I haven't been able to discover it.

Likewise, a similar number of brokers put a Buy on CSL today. I don't hold this but checked it out from curiosity - and it was also up over $3 at time of looking. It's a much more expensive stock though.

Hard to say that what brokers say doesn't matter!

Julia
Just saw some news that they had paid $1b for an insurer in the US, a place they are underexposed. Must be a good use of a billion dollars!

[swingstar]

You could nearly draw a straight line in the trend since 2001.

[theasxgorilla]

http://news.google.com.au/news?hl=en&ned=au&ie=UTF-8&q=%22qbe%22+location:australia

QBE buying into the US market, a la IAG doing similar in the UK...

[Julia]

Yes, sorry. I neglected to say that the broker upgrades were as a result of the announcement about the US venture.

Julia

[kennas]

Has anyone seen a better chart than this? :eek:

If you had have leveraged into this after 9/11 you'd be.....retired. :)

Questions were raised about best picks after the correction. You would have to think this has some legs, on any pullback. It's hard to see where it's going to go wrong, except maybe expanding too much. Acquisition after acquisition.....has some risk....

Of course, if they're insuring the next major terrorist target, it'll be in trouble......hurricanes are an issue too.....

(sold in Jan - waiting for dust to settle before I perhaps buy in again)

[Halba]

I think QBE has had a bit of good luck in 2006, what happens if weather turns bad? (with global warming etc I wouldn't want to be in insurance!!)

[robert toms]

If you judge QBE on its record it has had one bad year in over 100.As you people say there are risks...but they are in the business of making a profit from risk management.When their risk management failed them with the twin towers disaster,they were very contrite and vowed to take measures to improve their management .So far so good...I got some of the $5.50 shares that they offered to holders at the time...not many, but they have been very successful....little fish are sweet

[BradK]

Some interesting action on this today. 11,000 shares kept jumping between the buy and sell column.

Managed to pick some up at these prices and feel quite privileged to have done so. Probably the safest stock on the market IMO

Surprised there is not a thread on this one

Cheers
Brad

[BradK]

Not a popular stock to discuss, is it?

I think that sub-$31 is good buying, and bought some more at this price...

What do others think? Or is it a concern that it has broken $31 short term support?

Brad

[Julia]

Not a popular stock to discuss, is it?

I think that sub-$31 is good buying, and bought some more at this price...

What do others think? Or is it a concern that it has broken $31 short term support?

Brad

No, not popular for discussion at all. I guess this is due to its being a stable blue chip with little speculative activity.

It's one of Australia's best managed companies. Completely agree that sub $31 is good buying at this stage.

Btw, Brad, how is the dog? Recovered from the operation???

Regards
Julia

[BradK]

Hi Julia,

Pepper is doing very well. He has had his knee-cap 'popped' back into place' and the big lug is jumping all over our friends kids again :)

He was walking pretty gingerly after the op for about a week, but is definitely better for it now.

Cheers
Brad

[rick62]

Hi
I've been watching the intraday volatility within QBE with interest. [No they're not alone].
Kohler's Eureka Report a few days ago referred to their outstanding performance over a significant number of years and made a comment [I can't recall the exact wording] that their forthcoming results announcements [late this month I think] should once again be very positive.
I'm reluctant to dive in at this stage but wondered what other views might be out there?
Comments welcome.

[robert toms]

I have held this one for nearly ten years...it is the share in my portfolio that I do not worry about.They have diversified globally to reduce their risk.The only hiccup that they have had in many decades was on Sep 11th,Twin Towers...since then they tightened up their risk management considerably....if there is any insurance company that is blue chip...I consider QBE is it.....with my hand shaking...HA HA
When insurance companies strike a little trouble they just increase their premiums!

[BradK]

Must be about time to renew my love affair with this one - anything I have missed???

I think that its a great stock

Brad

[kennas]

Must be about time to renew my love affair with this one - anything I have missed???

I think that its a great stock

BradI was just looking at it too Brad. Why the 5% sell off? Unusual. Is it about to produce a record result? :rolleyes:

[BradK]

I was just looking at it too Brad. Why the 5% sell off? Unusual. Is it about to produce a record result? :rolleyes:

yes indeed... why the sell off? Its not exposed to that wild weather in Australia is it? more of an exposure to us and uk (although the weather here in the uk has been quite pleasant thank you very much)

Im gonna put in a buy order a few % below the close and see if I can go fishing.

Cheers
Brad

[gfresh]

All insurers seem to have suffered.. Is this because they rely on backing their policies from the world bond market? I'm not sure, just wondering if this is why..

[dhukka]

The reason Buffet likes insurance companies so much is that you get that 'float' ie people pay premiums but you don't need to pay anything out until someone makes a claim. Thus you have this enormous cashflow or float that you can invest. Insurers earn a lot of their profits from investment income as well as premiums, especially when stockmarkets are doing well. The investment part of their profits probably has fared too well over the last 6 months.

[BradK]

Hmmm... getting closer to $27 - why why why?????

Represents excellent value ...

Brad

Dis: I dont hold

[3 veiws of a secret]

All insurers seem to have suffered.. Is this because they rely on backing their policies from the world bond market? I'm not sure, just wondering if this is why..

Once the premiums come in there are several instuments you can use to reinvest your net premium incomes. Primarily you make sure (unlike HIH) you set up your reinsurances for your risks that your exposed too,then it fragments to ,xs loss, treaties and so on...Whether you spread your risks like the bookie does is entirely up to the risk management teams. To expose your portfolio into the bond market is a matter for each individual company.....but QBE is a very conservative insurance company from my dealings with them in the past .My long time friend is on a box at Lloyd's Corp-say lime street.....and it appears things have not changed from their conservative strategies.

I personally think,that premiums coming in from USA is the negative feature here .US $ is a poor investment currency ,and the couple this to the US stock market inflation ,then you can begin to understand the nervousness with QBE share price. Not to mention any catastrophies world wide and big insurances get the kosh treatment.
Fortunately "Insurance" is a necessary evil......but then again I hold QBE at least a few times a week!.........IAG? as Borat would say "Ino like"

[rostov]

(sigh. Some of you posters hold really better waters/thoughts/IQ that where I've been hanging around lately)

I too am wondering what's up with QBE. Note : I shorted from 2858 after a little deliberation, with initial (but cancelled 2 days back) target 2660, and today's target put in at 2640 was hit. Try as I might, modelling a 10year hold at 15% RR (rates of return) for QBE with expected EPS for 2007 at 237.1 (to achieve a constant delta EPS for the past 10 years) produces a max price over $34.

For 3 days, it's been supported by 2006 support, and after running a few reverse-value modelling, the only clue I have is that at current price assumed as max, the sellers are assuming that the EPS is -60(c), after having a 1/2-year close-to-100 EPS. Note that all EPS and div considerations and NTA were derived from data posted by Aspect huntley. We assume the assets declared by the company are true.

Doesn't. make. any. sense. Reason I shorted was due to psychology after the FGIC incident, adding more fears (no facts yet) that any possible bond assets covered by QBE were overrated/overstated (hence NTA goes down, etc). I also toyed around the speculation surrounding the withdrawal of shares from UBS (they sold, rated QBE upwards to pump, then sold)

Money's in the bank, and I'm not complaining. However, I've run out of valuation-reasons to go long or short, and though happy with the 2% portfolio increase, I don't know WHY <-- this bugs me lots.

Fundamentally I'm running out of clues as well.

Technically the past 3 trading days confirmed my tech entry reasons to short.

Question : What's going on with QBE and what's fore-running it at current levels?

____

Thereafter lies my posts from another forum. Appreciate any criticisms (very welcomed, in fact)


(14th Feb 2008 12:44hrs)
Order to open:
GTC Sell QBE LMT 2858 STP 2951. Target 2660.

Tech reason : fail to secure 38.2fib, 13+22ema failure, ElderRay bull dip, and buying MACD setup.

Portfolio exposed : 2% (max loss)


Cripes. Order was already triggered within last 30 minutes of yesterday's close, and closing was positive to my favour. Right now we have a USA red day bigger than yesterday's green day, and just 6 minutes before the bell starts, we have gap downs for QBE.

According to my view of the buy/sell queue for 12 prices, there is a pre-open dump of QFE. Very interesting because despite last night's downgrade of FGIC and comment that ABK and MBI were better than FGIC (causing ABK +12.3%, MBI+8.42%), the market was still red. This will be interesting for QBE.

I'm removing my limit. There's one more trading day for the USA, and if it's red, it's 2 days of red risk for Asia because Monday USA time is holiday. And OpEx was last night (no more push of prices up by hedge funds -- they cover today or tomorrow)


2660 limit was easily reached in the opening frenzies of retail dumping (my limit was removed). For the whole day, it faded up better than the ASX200. Because this is a play and directionally unconfirmed short, I move my stops forward to breakeven plus a little more to cover any commissions.

Technically there are a few problems. Besides those that I have stated before, the 100dma has just crossed the newly formed (since Oct 2007) 200dma, and all 13+22ema and their channels and all other dmas are sloping down. ElderRay bull power is 0 while bear power is -135, and this gap DOWN is a bearish breakout from the triangular wedge formed since 16th January entered from the top (means it usually breaks downwards), with target as the widest channel from the beginning at around 405 points and therefore a reasonable target would be 2400+. Note : not within a single day, and we're talking probabilities here (that's why we trade), and NOT certainties.

If it reaches, I'll decide on releasing. If it doesn't, breakeven.


I still procrastinate on (1)(b), with no other reason except that I've devoted a little more time back to the US markets. However, reading through the 2006 ANN and 2007 1/2 ANN is very interesting : I find no reason QBE is exposed to insuring any of the toxic stuff their US counterparts (FGIC, ABK, MBI, etc) are exposed to. All external searches for such clues are also absent : consistency with what they are stating : no CDO/CDS/MBS direct exposure. 9% of investment portfolio with the "top rated" (I really want to know who these banks are -- suspect) USA banks. A nearly equivalent amount in their acquisitions of US Winterthur + Praetorian. Very conservative in their investments : cash markets (very good choice) and fixed interest (again a good choice). Only thing hurting them is the exchange rate, but for that I have a thesis -- they are hurting right now but the USDX is bottomed.

I don't have a good fundamental reason to go chasing and shorting them. Except for a few notables.

1) UBS 6th November substantial shareholder reduction from 7.02% to 5.57% at 11,298,107 shares traded DOWN. The ASIC filing with ASX on 3rd January 2008 is messy as, but Aspect huntley has put together the numbers for said date. Sold into strength, QBE drops for a week 2 days later.

2) AXA 9th November substantial shareholder reduction from 7.53% to 6.22% at 5,467,401 shares traded DOWN. ASIC filing with ASX still absent. Numbers from Aspect Huntley. Sold into strength, QBE still fades down for a week thereafter

3) UBS rating of QBE to buy on 23rd November to "buy". Pump. http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/850933/

4) UBS (currently still unfiled, so unknown even to Aspect) substantial shareholder reduction 28th December 2007. Sold into strength. QBE drops to current levels 2 days later.

Why? I don't really know. Could be anything : forced sale by UBS, or speculative knowledge of astro stuff (these are too speculative. No facts)

So far substantial shareholders (name, shares, % of QBE):
AXA Group 55,060,293 6.22
Capital Group Companies Inc 48,268,558 5.89
(barclays somewhere below, at around 5.1%)

Aspects Qualitative Analysis (recently dated -- just 1 month):

_________
Business Description

QBE is a leading provider of general insurance and reinsurance services in Australia, the Pacific, Asia, the Americas and Europe. QBE has operations in 45 countries and has made almost 100 successful acquisitions since 1982. QBE is one of the best managed and profitable insurance groups in the global general insurance and reinsurance industry.

Company Strategy and Prospects
(Last Update: 18 January, 2008)

The QBE strategic objective is to remain a highly respected and successful general insurance and reinsurance Group by earning underwriting profits in each insurance division and above benchmark investment returns. The objectives are to grow shareholder wealth over the long term while maintaining a sound solvency position and a low risk profile. Extensive risk management is in place to protect all stakeholders.

QBE reported a 56% increase in NPAT to $921m for the six months to June 30, 2007 with solid growth in both gross written and net earned premiums which increased by 15.3% and 18.8% respectively. This reflected the benefit of past acquisitions and organic growth and despite a 3% decline in average premiums and weakness in $US. Gross written premium rose to $6.52bn net earned premium increased to $4.75bn. Group combined operating ratio fell from 87.9% to 86.2% driving a strong underwriting profit. Investment income rose by 70% to $564m with the net yield rising from 4.2% to 6.0%. The insurance margin improved from 18.7% to 22.2%. The probability of adequacy of outstanding claims ratio was 95.8% leaving management little option but to release more profit to shareholders. Operating cash flow increased from $322m to $785m reflecting premium growth and a relatively benign claims environment.Interim dividend increased by 43% from 40 to 57 per share 60% franked.


Using average exchange rates GWP is expected to grow by 25% to $13bn in FY07 and by 10% in FY08 to over $14bn. Management upgraded insurance margin guidance from 17.5% to 18.5% to 18.5% to 20.0%. QBE has sufficient capital to finance acquisitions of up to $1.5bn of additional net written premium. More acquisitions will have to be undertaken otherwise surplus capital will have to be returned to shareholders.
___________


Right now, with the current EPS at $1.03 for 1/2 year, the target to attain the same 39.97% YoYoYoYoYoYoYoYoYoY increase in EPS is $2.232 for this coming 2007 ANN. Value investors will HOLD at such levels and above.

In order to attain the same EPS gain that QBE obtained between 2005 and 2006 (2005EPS=$1.344, 2006EPS=$1.785, thus % EPS increase = 32.81%), their 2007 ANN has to be EPS = $2.371 .

Psychologically I have to think about what an EPS equal, lesser, or more than $2.37 would mean. For now. That's where (1)(b) comes in.

For now, I sleep.


Despite today's action on the financials and the futes (USA) ramping up until 5am Sydney time, QBE still traded down, and the pattern was similar to 3 days ago : volume sell right at the open, and fade up later in the day till close. Each time it seems to push the 2006 support more.

Sorry if I sound a little paranoid trying to chase a reason/answer to my question. Don't like it when technicals have enough reason to win without fundamental ones.

[BradK]

Could today be the day for cue bee eee? I have a fish in at $26, but ironically if it breaks $26, not sure when the next stop will be

Brad

[rick62]

I'm lost [and a bit of a novice!!!].
Why the 10-11% drop on what appears to be a good report?
Can anyone ease my confusion?

[kennas]

I'm lost [and a bit of a novice!!!].
Why the 10-11% drop on what appears to be a good report?
Can anyone ease my confusion?Up is down and down is up.

If they had have come out with a crap report, they'd be flying.

Musn't have been as good as hoped, or the CEO said next year will be 'difficult' or something equally as scarey.

[3 veiws of a secret]

Like a queen-bee I'm in again....interesting days trading .....Hey you could have been holding ABS today and felt like ?????!

[doctorj]

On first glance, the report looks very good considering the stage of the insurance cycle we're in.

Underwriting result looks good despite cost pressures on claim costs (raw materials, labour etc), investment result looks solid and they're reinsurance exp has fallen slightly relative to GWP but reinsurance recoveries is pretty consistent (meaning it doesn't appear they've significantly changed their risk retention).

So where are the skeletons? Exposure to the USD and the US economy in general I'm guessing, coupled with continued pressure on premiums as the cycle continues to tighten.

What were analysis expectations? It all looks pretty solid to me.
rick, I wouldn't look to attribute fundamental reasons to short term price movements, it is often just noise.

[3 veiws of a secret]

As I have stated in a previous post ...US$ premiums are having adverse future reactions to profits ,its the r/ex that dulls the reading for me .Talk of Aus$ possibly reaching 94 cents....and try to exchange Aus $ in Africa ,or South America then you understand how the market feels today. I for one jumped in at todays prices ...QBE is a heavyweight in Insurance terms for me.

[rick62]

Thanks guys [or gals]. QBE has such a good track record there must be doubts about US exposure surely.....????
Seems to me that anytime that word [US] is mentioned then everyone ducks no matter whatever else is going on.
[I did check ABS.... ouch!!]
I already have QBE and was wondering whether to top-up for the long-term?

[Julia]

This is one of my long term holds. The market reaction today over the longer term will be a hardly noticeable blip.

[3 veiws of a secret]

Ricky! What Julia states is crystal clear! I have bought and sold today and trying to re-enter .....please somebody spare me a dime!:D
BTW dont forget the divi helps at these low red hot special prices!

[rick62]

Did it! Thanks all. There's a lot more experience around here than I have but QBE has been very kind to me these past years and I have been reluctant to give up cash recently....
Rick"y"

[3 veiws of a secret]

Did it! Thanks all. There's a lot more experience around here than I have but QBE has been very kind to me these past years and I have been reluctant to give up cash recently....
Rick"y"

Hmmmm,Unfortunately I don't know nothing about shares ,but Insurance I can say I know something about. Alas if you think I had the experience in shares I would not have attended my bee duties to come back to the screen and see QBE @ $26.01 when my order was to sell @$25.60 today,even though I bought in at $25.45, it was meagre takings. Anyway back in through the side door @$25.71
As I said down on the day (-10.81%),and you gain a divi.....
Now did I have a good day with ABS!!!!!! oooooweee:2twocents

[rick62]

Ouch! Actually I didn't "do it"! I placed the order with my advisor by email late in the day and was too slack to follow it up with a phone call. [I trade some shares on-line myself] but my super fund shares I trade through my advisor. It's even cheaper but has its downsides. Anyway, he wasn't in - unusually.
So -- I will wait and see where QBE is tomorrow I guess.....
R

[M34N]

This is a fantastic company that's been unfairly hit again, like most financials. Look at the trend its had since mid-2002, it traded from $6-7 and its just been uphill since with the occasional hiccup. Even September 11 was just a "blip".

Anyone willing to suggest where support for this is at? Looks to be around $25, then around $20 for the next level. Hard to say with financials in these times!

Wouldn't count on QBE going down though, this has surprised time and time again, and I would actually expect it to rebound like it did after 9/11.

[3 veiws of a secret]

Ouch! Actually I didn't "do it"! I placed the order with my advisor by email late in the day and was too slack to follow it up with a phone call. [I trade some shares on-line myself] but my super fund shares I trade through my advisor. It's even cheaper but has its downsides. Anyway, he wasn't in - unusually.
So -- I will wait and see where QBE is tomorrow I guess.....
R

I personally would'nt get too emotional about what you bought today or sold....plenty of opportunities with this one ,if it goes down tomorrow then feel that warmth when you buy cheaper...if it goes up...well wait for the following day .....emotions and logic Mr Spock!

M34N.....I missed all the turmoil on the markets during Nov 2007>early Feb 2008 ( on hoilday for 3 months) ,but with all the neurosis out in the market ,everybody is like in "cold turkey mode". But I agree with you QBE's figs where not bad ,just greed has got the better of some jittery sellers.

[rick62]

I personally would'nt get too emotional about what you bought today or sold....plenty of opportunities with this one ,if it goes down tomorrow then feel that warmth when you buy cheaper...if it goes up...well wait for the following day .....emotions and logic Mr Spock!

M34N.....I missed all the turmoil on the markets during Nov 2007>early Feb 2008 ( on hoilday for 3 months) ,but with all the neurosis out in the market ,everybody is like in "cold turkey mode". But I agree with you QBE's figs where not bad ,just greed has got the better of some jittery sellers.

M34N? OK, interpretation needed....
Got up during the evening for a cup of tea and see the Dow, for now, is retreating on opening - so maybe the "warmth" will be felt. It's no big deal anyway as I'm in for the long haul. And there's a lot more to life than shares and dollars is there not?

[BradK]

Round two???

But WHY??? Such a strong company with astute management - I will have some more of those thank you

Brad

[3 veiws of a secret]

Round two???

But WHY??? Such a strong company with astute management - I will have some more of those thank you

Brad

Brad does it really matter ....I bought in again today....as I say the dividend is interesting at these prices....

[robert toms]

Yes the divident if just over 5%...never seen it like this for QBE before.And I hope that it is subtantially franked as well !

[Julia]

Yes the divident if just over 5%...never seen it like this for QBE before.And I hope that it is subtantially franked as well !

The dividend is 65c and is only 50% franked.
That is all I wanted to say so am adding these extra words to pad this post out and allow it to be accepted for posting.

[Birdster]

The dividend is 65c and is only 50% franked.
That is all I wanted to say so am adding these extra words to pad this post out and allow it to be accepted for posting.

Can someone help me with understanding the terminology in the QBE presentation report? In regards to dividends, the report says ex-dividend date is 29/2. "Record" date is 6/3, and payment date is 26/3. What is record date? :confused: It is my understanding selling shares on ex-div day still entitles you to the dividend.

Thanks in advance :)

[ice]

Birdster the ex-dividend date is the critical one in terms of buying/selling.

The record date (4 trading days after the ex date) is simply to allow time for transactions to be recorded by the share registry, otherwise the process would degenerate into a shambles.

If you sell on the ex-dividend date you retain the dividend as you are indeed selling your shares ex the dividend.

ice

[rick62]

This is really interesting. Just watching the last half hour of trade. I bought at $25.15 and thought I'd done OK. Late rally from $24.45 I wonder.....

[Birdster]

This is really interesting. Just watching the last half hour of trade. I bought at $25.15 and thought I'd done OK. Late rally from $24.45 I wonder.....

I could of posted the exact same post as you. Except for the "This is really intersesting" part would be swapped for %^%#! :banghead:

[BradK]

OK... so 10% yesterday and 5% today -just shy of analysts expectations, and strong aussie dollar.

Is the battering this is taking justified?

Brad

[M34N]

OK... so 10% yesterday and 5% today -just shy of analysts expectations, and strong aussie dollar.

Is the battering this is taking justified?

Brad
Brad,

If you look at that chart over the past few years, I didn't hear many people complaining as QBE went from $7 to over $30 in that time. So honestly, a drop back to $25 or so isn't that bad. In comparison, this stock is performing better than AFG, ABS, CNP...

I give it a few more days to settle down, and it will come back slowly, just look at BNB, that has been a shining example of how a stock can rebound rapidly (15-20%) within the matter of days even.

Long term, fundamentally, nothing was/is wrong with QBE. I am actually looking at buying in if it drops much further so I'm not phased. Soon I am sure we will be posting in here about how it performed so well! :2twocents

[Birdster]

Brad,

If you look at that chart over the past few years, I didn't hear many people complaining as QBE went from $7 to over $30 in that time. So honestly, a drop back to $25 or so isn't that bad. In comparison, this stock is performing better than AFG, ABS, CNP...

I give it a few more days to settle down, and it will come back slowly, just look at BNB, that has been a shining example of how a stock can rebound rapidly (15-20%) within the matter of days even.

Long term, fundamentally, nothing was/is wrong with QBE. I am actually looking at buying in if it drops much further so I'm not phased. Soon I am sure we will be posting in here about how it performed so well! :2twocents

When was it $7 and go to over $30? it must be years ago...and for no people complaining on that rise is like saying shorters shut up when they lose.

As how reassurring you want to sound with "I'm not phased", it doesn't give any input to what is happing to the SP.

No intended offence. My stats do not show $7-30 in a short time.

Just to note, regarding QBE, I'm in and down...but above ground! :)

[M34N]

When was it $7 and go to over $30? it must be years ago...and for no people complaining on that rise is like saying shorters shut up when they lose.

As how reassurring you want to sound with "I'm not phased", it doesn't give any input to what is happing to the SP.

No intended offence. My stats do not show $7-30 in a short time.

Just to note, regarding QBE, I'm in and down...but above ground! :)
No, more the point that its had a fantastic run over the past 4 years, up some 300%, and when there's a 10% fall, especially in what some argue is a bear market (moreso for financials), then I don't see the problem.

People have to start looking at the long-term picture instead of the day-by-day movements. That was more the point I was making.

Short term? That's a whole different issue, and as far as I'm concerned, if you're buying into financials for the short term, then I think you would be well aware of the kind of trouble you can get yourself into.

In regards to "I'm not phased"; look at what happened to QBE from its low after September 11, it hit $5, and now we're talking about it being $25, what part of not phased is unclear? ;) When it drops in the same fashion as others like ABS, CNP etc have, then I will understand the complaining, but BNB, MQG and other financials have suffered steep falls like this in the past year, so again, it's not contained to this stock alone and spread across the market. That's why I'm not phased.

Shares are not for the faint hearted, especially day-trading/short term trading.

[tronic72]

Brad,

If you look at that chart over the past few years, I didn't hear many people complaining as QBE went from $7 to over $30 in that time. So honestly, a drop back to $25 or so isn't that bad. In comparison, this stock is performing better than AFG, ABS, CNP...

I give it a few more days to settle down, and it will come back slowly, just look at BNB, that has been a shining example of how a stock can rebound rapidly (15-20%) within the matter of days even.

Long term, fundamentally, nothing was/is wrong with QBE. I am actually looking at buying in if it drops much further so I'm not phased. Soon I am sure we will be posting in here about how it performed so well! :2twocents

Strange to conpare a company like QBE with the likes of AFG, ABS & CNP.

The market punished the likes of AFG, CNP & ABS for their high levels of debt. Then a company like QBE gets punished for reducing their debt and risk levels at the expense of a small amount of profit.

You CANNOT have consistant HIGH returns without a HIGH level of risk.

BNB exceeded their profit forcasts. QBE failed to reach theirs, hence the Markets "hissy fit". I agree that things will turn around soon.

Given 75% of their income comes from the US, which is in the grip of a recession their profit result was outstanding.

Give it a few weeks.

:2twocents

[qr2007]

Hi Friends,

Any idead why SP dropped much more than Div.? Any news? I thought QBE is a very good Company?
Thanks.

[Julia]

Hi Friends,

Any idead why SP dropped much more than Div.? Any news? I thought QBE is a very good Company?
Thanks.
Sadly, there's no rule which says the SP may only drop as much as the value of the dividend!
There are dozens of good companies whose SP's are being similarly affected.
I doubt any bad fairy especially has it in for QBE.
Read Tronic's comments above.

[qr2007]

Sadly, there's no rule which says the SP may only drop as much as the value of the dividend!
There are dozens of good companies whose SP's are being similarly affected.
I doubt any bad fairy especially has it in for QBE.
Read Tronic's comments above.

Hi Julia,

Don't put me wrong, I have strong belief in QBE and its performance, I am sure it will do much better in the next few weeks, but just surprised me whats happening today? Even IAG wans't that bad today? SUN is catching up??

I think once Ambac announced the package, QBE will fly up ...

Regards,

[Carol]

Barclays Group have been selling QBE shares and ceased to become a substantial holder (see QBE ASX announcements past couple of days). Despite Barclay's selling the volume on QBE since Wednesday has been way above its normal daily trading volume. The recent drop is share price is incongruent given QBE's excellent fundaments and a PE Ratio of less than 11.0I have emailed the ASX asking them to look into QBE's unusual rise in trading volume on Wed 27th Feb. I will let you know what their response is when it is received.

[waz]

Hi Carol,

Who did you email at the ASX?

I never knew it was possible for just anyone to send the ASX a queery.
What sort of increases in volume were you seeing?

If it was significant to warrant a an ASX queery/please explain to the company, the ASX systems should automatically catch it, there should not be a need for the public to alert the ASX.

[waz]

By the way, I wouldn't consider trading volumes around QBE in the last few days to be unusual. Its expected given it missed many forcasts and it just released its results.
If it were to drop 6% the day before the results were released, that would have been considered unusual. But being unusual does not neccessarily mean that it requires a please explain.

[qr2007]

By the way, I wouldn't consider trading volumes around QBE in the last few days to be unusual. Its expected given it missed many forcasts and it just released its results.
If it were to drop 6% the day before the results were released, that would have been considered unusual. But being unusual does not neccessarily mean that it requires a please explain.

If you looked back in the last 5 years, QBE had never had the volumes > 10mils, the highest was back in Nov/2003 which was about less than 10mils. But on 26,27,28 it was 21, 18, 13 million shares change hand????

It is unusual ....

[Garpal Gumnut]

Barclays Group have been selling QBE shares and ceased to become a substantial holder (see QBE ASX announcements past couple of days). Despite Barclay's selling the volume on QBE since Wednesday has been way above its normal daily trading volume. The recent drop is share price is incongruent given QBE's excellent fundaments and a PE Ratio of less than 11.0I have emailed the ASX asking them to look into QBE's unusual rise in trading volume on Wed 27th Feb. I will let you know what their response is when it is received.

Well done Carol, its time someone shook the regulators.

On the charts this is extremely unusual trading/selling, in a down trend and it may be about to do an AFG chartwise.

Next support/resistance is $20, then $12, then $8.

Beware all.

gg

[BradK]

Well done Carol, its time someone shook the regulators.

On the charts this is extremely unusual trading/selling, in a down trend and it may be about to do an AFG chartwise.

Next support/resistance is $20, then $12, then $8.

Beware all.

gg

Despite being accompanied by a chart to give it a veneer of legitimacy, this is just down ramping. Mods???

brad

[prawn_86]

Despite being accompanied by a chart to give it a veneer of legitimacy, this is just down ramping. Mods???

brad

Looks fine to me Brad.

GG was just stating where the major support points are in his eyes. He wasnt saying it is definetly heading there.

Any problems feel free to PM :)

[Garpal Gumnut]

Despite being accompanied by a chart to give it a veneer of legitimacy, this is just down ramping. Mods???

brad

Wow,

Paranoia rules.

I repeat on the charts QBE is in a downtrend.

See my posts on AFG and MQG and BNB.

Now there were some shares on the way down when I posted on them.

I'd be more concerned if I were you re

1. directors with Margin loans
2. short sellers
and 3. share loans by funds to short sellers

One can sit by a creek and watch the weeds go past.

One is not responsible for the weeds.

I'm happy for any of my posts to be reviewed for ramping.

The charts can't be ignored.

gg

[BradK]

Why would you be concerned if you were a short seller?

I just think that the PE ratio of less than 10 will be attractive, and can't understand the irrationality of the market last week when nearly $2bn in profit was posted and it got heavily punished for it.

brad

[Garpal Gumnut]

Why would you be concerned if you were a short seller?

I just think that the PE ratio of less than 10 will be attractive, and can't understand the irrationality of the market last week when nearly $2bn in profit was posted and it got heavily punished for it.

brad

Mate I've been through 2 big crashes on ASX and believe me there is a reason for stocks to fall like this, you or I may not know what it is, but there is a reason.

I can't tell the future but I can tell when a stock is likely to be in a downtrend. Have a look at the AFG thread and also the AFG chart. See the price fall a week or two before announcements.

In this climate I would not believe anything that is "publically available".

I am positive on some stocks, just not QBE

gg

[BradK]

Well, then those hedge fund f*&^wits are just robbing blind mum and dad investors, and they should all be put in jail.

No wonder the Soc Gen guy has gained so much grassroots support.

Brad

[vishalt]

Oh my gosh... the POOR MUMS AND DADS.

Hey, guess who's money it is in hedge funds?

POOR MUM AND DADS LOL

[sardines]

Personally I think the market and QBE is getting oversold. However, the news flow for the insurance industry certainly hasn't been much good either, especially with disappointing results from competitors such as SUN & IAG.

As QBE is quite diversified, I think Buffet's comments are more or less applicable to QBE

Buffett says profit party's over for insurance industry (http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/buffett-sees-big-drop-profit/story.aspx?guid=%7BAB89BA03%2D2843%2D4265%2DA12E%2 DEDC506066C86%7D&dist=MostReadHome)

[jet328]

I just think that the PE ratio of less than 10 will be attractive, and can't understand the irrationality of the market last week when nearly $2bn in profit was posted and it got heavily punished for it.

Just remember, the market is 'forward looking'. Its the outlook that the market is concerned with, not last years figures. Buffett's recent comments wouldn't have helped either.

In regards to hedge funds, as a long only investor I think they are great. They create volatility & fear, which can lead to great opportunities for the LT investor. eg QBE- if there were no hedge funds/short-termers would you get opportunities to buy the same companies at 30%+ discounts to previous prices? (It's funny how no one minded the hedge funds running up the prices last year...)

On QBE, I agree its cheap & a great business, but it doesn't mean it won't be cheaper in the future. The USA currently looks terrible to me on a short, medium & long term basis. Still can't believe the DOW has a 12 in front it. Something will eventually snap IMO.......

[BradK]

Guys GREAT news....

The price of this is going to ROCKET tommorrow, because I am going to sell today.

Awesome.

Brad

[BradK]

Didnt sell - but the directors have been buying up shares in the past few days, which is great news.

Shows they have confidence in the company - it will turn around.

Brad

[PhoenixXx]

only small quantity............I wish it will help.....................
btw, is QBE still a blue chip stock???????........:banghead:

[ROE]

Didnt sell - but the directors have been buying up shares in the past few days, which is great news.

Shows they have confidence in the company - it will turn around.

Brad

Insurance going through a rough time right now not just QBE, SUN, IAG and Warren Buffett insurance business but hopefully they will increase premium soon that has been discount for a few years else someone will goes belly up and that will drive up premium anyway :D

[qr2007]

QBE has a nice run today? any idea? no news? but up 1.70+. The financial sector in the US does not look that promise but here we have a good run? wonder why?

Anyway, congratulation to QBE holders.

Cheers

[Gekko]

Wow, up 6-10% today. If ever a textbook was written on "short covering", this is it.

QBE has been hammered from pillar to post and finally a bottom has been established.

Result was obviously poor, so i doubt this recovery will go on too long, but the selling has been that relentless it was always going to bounce.

[qr2007]

The highest was about 22.13 but only for a short while then dropped back to 21.50+. If the financial sector doing well tonight in the US then it will continue its ride, otherwise, big selloff would happen tomorrow????

Hoping Ambac would come out with good news or ....???

SUN is going opposite way??? so it is a concern?

[BradK]

It was always going to bounce... just the extent of it that matters. It has a few gaps to fill on the way up, and the shorters will have to cover their positons soon.

Also, because the directors bought up so much, it might have helped a fair bit for confidence although that is only a small point.

I was going to sell - but I have more confidence in this stock than just about any. Have been coming and going on this for about 8 years now.

Brad

[PhoenixXx]

Guys GREAT news....

The price of this is going to ROCKET tommorrow, because I am going to sell today.

Awesome.

Brad

So Brad, did you end up selling? Because if not, the rocket might come back to earth. j/k. ANyway, so far did not break $20, and bounced real quick. Hopefully it's not just a dead cat's.

[BradK]

Notwithstanding the heading for the hills today, this is up and down like a new brides nighty.

And no, I didnt sell... Im sure it will bounce too far if I do. My short trade has become a LONG term investment. ;):rolleyes::cool:

[Gekko]

QBE noted a buy by Shadforths in Herald Sun today. Citing oversold, conservative balance sheet and high portion of (current) short term invetments, and strong cash position. Still looks oversold at current levels, but futures down from friday night

[qr2007]

What is wrong with QBE today??? SUN is riding up the hill nicely but QBE is heading south??? it has been up and down last few days??? very directionless for QBE??

I found this

"North Pointe Holdings Corporation Announces Special Meeting of Shareholders to Approve Acquisition by QBE Holdings, Inc. on April 10, 2008"

http://www.earthtimes.org/articles/show/north-pointe-holdings-corporation-announces-special-meeting-of-shareholders-to,307069.shtml

Any news pls???

Thank you.

[BradK]

I think it is doing very well considering all of the doom and gloom about. Im afraid the party is over for 2008, and just kick back on the way down.... and wait until she turns, mate.

Cheers
Brad

[BradK]

QBE indicative open price, Im sure, will have no bearing on the real price... but can someone explained how it is calculated.

Someone wanting to dump nearly 3 million at 19.45, and another wanting to buy nearly 2 million at 24.96.

Is that a shorter trying to have a crack? Who dares wins stuff?

Please explain.

cheers
Brad

[oldblue]

Prices in pre-open are shown " in reverse", ie bids are actually offers and vice-versa.
Have a look at some other stocks - they'll all be the same format.

:)

[BradK]

Thanks for that... Hmmm... I dont quite get it though...

You are saying the 'seller' at

19.450 2,631,328 1

is actually wanting to 'buy'?

Brad

[BradK]

Oh of course it is options expiry day today... lot of happy and angry and shocked punters out there with their puts/calls today I bet. What a difference a month makes!

brad

[ozambersand]

There is a good thread in the beginner's forum that explains the pre-open price and auction.
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=273194#post273194
I needed to get my head around fact that the prices quoted were really just ways to position yourself in the queue rather than what was actually expected to be paid/sold at.

[oldblue]

Sorry, Brad.
I've put it wrong and have only confused things.
What I meant to say is that bids and offers are listed in reverse order, ie, lowest bid up to highest bid, highest offer down to lowest offer. The opposite to how they will appear after opening

Whew !

:)

[Trembling Hand]

The open match prices today is effected by the Expiry of Futures contract on the opening price of all asx200 stocks. Its a huge volume open today because of that. Basically 3 months of arbitrage trading will be unwound on the open. Nothing to get your nickers in a knot about.

[ozambersand]

They got a speeding ticket today but denied knowledge of anything that would make their price go up 5% while everyone else's went down. :rolleyes:
They said that Dow buying them out was just a rumour.
However I did notice a couple of other new items in red (ie not available to be looked at) and one of these was a trading halt during the day. So something is in the wind.

[bigdog]

My prediction was that Insurance Australia Group would be a takeover target!!!!

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,23410053-664,00.html

The news took the market by surprise, partly because the successful insurer (QBE) is frequently speculated as a predator.

It has long been rumoured to be considering a tilt at struggling local rival Insurance Australia Group.

[ROE]

I think Uncle Warren maybe looking at QBE :-)
That's my theory knowing uncle always want to buy things when everyone see doom and gloom :D

[BradK]

Lets play a game of speculatoin... and make it clear that Buffet has NOT approached the company for an offer... but, how much per share do you think it is worth?

I know Buffet like to get himself a good deal

$35?

Brad

[kennas]

$35 looks like a pluck Brad. Right now, it's worth $23.88. ;)

But, have we seen the bottom? May be about to have a clear higher high and low. Has the worst of the credit skeletons been revealed?

This is definately on my long term blue chip recovery story list.

[Boggo]

It came up in my scans last night, its playing the game so far.

Lets see if it can break below the $24 level.

Mike

[cbacamden]

Ive been reviewing QBE for some time now and think it may be getting close to bottoming out

Any thoughts on the future for QBE?

[Dutchy3]

IMO QBE may not have found its bottom as yet. This shot from my watchlist. I'm ready to sell this down on the CLOSE Monday if it drops below 2000 ...

[Dutchy3]

Chart that I didn't attach to the above post and more word to make 100 plus some cause I'm still not there

[michael_selway]

IMO QBE may not have found its bottom as yet. This shot from my watchlist. I'm ready to sell this down on the CLOSE Monday if it drops below 2000 ...

Hm are numbers are not to bad

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 217.0 214.9 224.8 232.1
DPS 122.0 129.0 137.0 141.5

http://www.******************/images/stockpricecharts/600_420/QBE.jpg

thx

MS


Date: 10/7/2008
Author: Marsha Jacobs; Madeleine Koo
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 3
Investors in failed property development financing group Westpoint in Australiahave suffered a legal setback. They had brought an action in the New South WalesSupreme Court against financial planning firm Qantum Securities over itsrecommendation of Westpoint. However, due to the fact that Westpoint did notactually appear on the list of Qantum's approved products, there will be noinsurance cover available from QBE Insurance to compensate the claimants fortheir investment losses. Law firm Slater & Gordon warns that this loopholestill exists despite recent reforms and that more unwary consumers may be caughtout

[Dutchy3]

Hm are numbers are not to bad

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 217.0 214.9 224.8 232.1
DPS 122.0 129.0 137.0 141.5

http://www.******************/images/stockpricecharts/600_420/QBE.jpg

thx

MS

Yep and the Price action precludes opening a short against this one too ... perhaps this has now put in its low?

[Logique]

I agree with the two latest posts.

I first mentioned this in the falling knifes thread a little while back. I added to my holding back then, and haven't regretted it. Traders looking for a turnaround are hard to please if they don't like this technical setup. I'd like a break above the 50EMA, but that is in sight now.

For all stocks in the market, we know that future earnings are subject to revision, but at the moment QBE is listed on Commsec at 5.6% dividend with 50% franking.

[bearmarket]

Is QBE an USD/AUSD play in anyones opinion? I read somewhere last year that it was. Is this true?

bearmarket

[rossw]

love the fat finger trades just then :bigthumb:

pushed the futures down and back 10 points in a few seconds too

[Euler]

It appears someone put in sell order of 500000 for 2c

Wonder if they'll still be there by day's end?

[Euler]

It appears someone put in sell order of 500000 for 2c

Wonder if they'll still be there by day's end?

lol ... and in addition ... 22 went through at .001 ... haven't see that on the depth in a long while.

..... all trades reversed off course!!

The buyers thought it was really Christmas in July

[michael_selway]

lol ... and in addition ... 22 went through at .001 ... haven't see that on the depth in a long while.

..... all trades reversed off course!!

The buyers thought it was really Christmas in July

hehe stupid TA traders! just j/k...:)

http://business.smh.com.au/business/error-wipes-qbe-out-20080730-3n7p.html


Error wipes QBE out
Email Print Normal font Large font AdvertisementMark Hawthorne, Chris Zappone
July 30, 2008 - 4:15PM

Hearts dropped as 85 points were wiped off the All Ordinaries Index and 82 points off the S&P/ASX200 in a flash this afternoon.

But it wasn't the market crash many have been fearing rather the result of a keyboard error from a broker selling QBE shares.

The broker sold a series of share parcels at between 0.1 cents and 0.2 cents per share at 2.20pm today, effectively taking the entire $20.2 billion market value of the global insurance giant out of the Australian Securities Exchange. QBE was trading at above $22.85 per share at the time.

Within minutes day traders had seized the opportunity, with many making offers to buy QBE at 0.2 cents per share.

The ASX immediately suspended QBE from trading to assess the situation.

Just nine minutes after the error was made the ASX's Governors Dispute Committee cancelled all trades in QBE at below $22.20 and the company returned to the boards.

"An error was made and it has been rectified,'' said ASX corporate relations manager Matthew Gibbs.

If you put in a selling price as low as 0.01 cents, for a stock trading at $22.85, it's fairly evident you will have a sudden and dramatic drop very quickly, Mr Gibbs said.

The Governors Dispute Committee is formed by senior brokers, market participants and one ASX representative.

"It was so clearly a mistake that (the committee) decided to cancel all trades at below $22.20. It's not the first time errors like this have happened, but they are very rare.''

"Because the price error was so drastic, it effectively removed the stock from the index," he said.

QBE Insurance had no comment on the market event.

Many stockbrokers said they recognised the plunge immediately as an error.

"There will be some red faces but the reality is there are human beings who push buttons," said Howard Elton of Intersuisse Stockbroking. "These things are accidental."

Mr Elton compared the gaffe to a pilot who overshoots a runway and lands a plane in the dirt. "It doesn't do his personal reputation anything great," he said.

czappone@fairfax.com.au

thx

MS

[Logique]

Phew, a narrow escape, for a moment I thought the stock was trading at .02 during the fat finger trade a week or two back :eek:

Financials are having a better time of it with domestic growth seeming to slow, and interest rate cuts up for discussion at the Reserve Bank. So for QBE, roll on $25 and then $26. He says hopefully.

[matt1987]

hi im just looking for some advice on the qbe dividend election plan. i am currently on this plan and when looking to do my 2008 tax return, i noticed that under qbe's div plan, you actually "forgo" your div's and instead are issued bonus shares at the value of the div you have forgone - this differs to a div reincetment plan, where you actually receive div's but the company issues new shares in consideration for the div.

the div election plan booklet says that the shares received are not subject to australian imputation (dividend) taxes. therefore, i am unsure of how this plan works from a tax perspective. it couldn't just be you're receiving new shares and you increase your cost base by the value of the new shares because in this circumstance you would still be receiving some form of "consideration" which would be tax free.

would greatly appreciate any advice in relation to this.

[pjthin]

hi im just looking for some advice on the qbe dividend election plan. i am currently on this plan and when looking to do my 2008 tax return, i noticed that under qbe's div plan, you actually "forgo" your div's and instead are issued bonus shares at the value of the div you have forgone - this differs to a div reincetment plan, where you actually receive div's but the company issues new shares in consideration for the div.

the div election plan booklet says that the shares received are not subject to australian imputation (dividend) taxes. therefore, i am unsure of how this plan works from a tax perspective. it couldn't just be you're receiving new shares and you increase your cost base by the value of the new shares because in this circumstance you would still be receiving some form of "consideration" which would be tax free.

would greatly appreciate any advice in relation to this.


hi,


The bonus shares are not dividends however they have a cost base of $nil so when you sell them you will have a capital gain for the market selling price. i.e. you can never make a capital loss on the sale of the bonus shares.

In some situations its actually better to use the DRP due to the franking credits. For example hypothetically:

if you have $45k salary no deductions etc. as your only taxable income, then at current income tax rates your marginal rate is 30%. You want to choose between a DRP or BSP:

DRP: assume dividend is 100% franked, then you essentially pay no tax as your marginal tax @ 30% is offset exactly by the franking credits received. No future tax liability re: dividends

BSP: you receives bonus shares instead. No taxable income for the year you receive it, but when you sell these bonus shares in the future you actually make a capital gain and are potentially liable for CGT

So in the above scenario you're better off with the DRP. Given that QBE's franking is generally around 20-60% you have to take that into consideration.

Hope that helps

[matt1987]

hi,


The bonus shares are not dividends however they have a cost base of $nil so when you sell them you will have a capital gain for the market selling price. i.e. you can never make a capital loss on the sale of the bonus shares.

In some situations its actually better to use the DRP due to the franking credits. For example hypothetically:

if you have $45k salary no deductions etc. as your only taxable income, then at current income tax rates your marginal rate is 30%. You want to choose between a DRP or BSP:

DRP: assume dividend is 100% franked, then you essentially pay no tax as your marginal tax @ 30% is offset exactly by the franking credits received. No future tax liability re: dividends

BSP: you receives bonus shares instead. No taxable income for the year you receive it, but when you sell these bonus shares in the future you actually make a capital gain and are potentially liable for CGT

So in the above scenario you're better off with the DRP. Given that QBE's franking is generally around 20-60% you have to take that into consideration.

Hope that helps


great, thanks very much for your help with that. was just what i was after :)

good point re the div election plan vs div reinvestment plan. qbe's drp is currently suspended so i suppose the dep is my only plan for non monetary dividends anyway.

cheers

matt

[Lachlan6]

QBE is grinding its way higher against the general market trend. At least that is one good sign, however I would expect this move higher to fail soon. It looks clearly part of a larger correction and certainly not a new impulse higher. It may be a good 'get out of jail free' card for those who bought in at higher levels, but one to watch for a possible entry once the wave (C) is complete for either a medium term trade or possibly longer term hold.

[kennas]

QBE is grinding its way higher against the general market trend. At least that is one good sign, however I would expect this move higher to fail soon. Well picked Lachlan.

Fell over at $28 resistance.

$20 ish zone look pretty solid for now though.

:2twocents

[Bin57again]

QBE's trading halt due to acquisitions - will the stock open higher or lower? Is there a general rule (e.g. the acquisitions show strong balance sheet)? I bought near 22 but this has caught me off guard...I've set a stop just below 21...any ideas/comments?

[TheAbyss]

QBE's trading halt due to acquisitions - will the stock open higher or lower? Is there a general rule (e.g. the acquisitions show strong balance sheet)? I bought near 22 but this has caught me off guard...I've set a stop just below 21...any ideas/comments?

the instos got it at $20.50 so thats where this will go IMO. In the short term it might go a bit below that but will bounce back to $20.50 then some evaluation will take place for a while. Longer term my opinion is that it will work for QBE but i have no real data to work with. Most of the insurers appear to have come out of the credit issues pretty well. The issue for them is where will they show growth in the future? QBE are acting on this buy buying up some business and it is a good thing IMO.


The last company that did a placement was IPL at $2.50 a few weeks ago which sold units at a discount to current SP and the SP retreated to the $2.50 in a week or so after that, then retreated further, circa $2.25 ish before rebounding and hovering at the $2.50-$2.60 range where it is now give or take some cents.

[hotbmw]

if the US$ severely depreciates in the coming year or so, how much of QBE's income is derived from the US?

Is it significant? 10%? 20%?

I remember a month or so back they invested into the US market again.

Any concerns here by current shareholders?

[johenmo]

if the US$ severely depreciates in the coming year or so, how much of QBE's income is derived from the US?

Is it significant? 10%? 20%?

I remember a month or so back they invested into the US market again.

Any concerns here by current shareholders?

Nett Earned Premium for HY 6/08 is $5108m, of which "Americas" = 34% ($1469), Oz=26%, AP = 5% and Europe = 36%. Report states "stronger" Aus Dollar impacted on this. I don't have any info of recent times. I hold small parcel. Bought into recent raising but will watch closely as original purchase is green (only one).

[S73417H]

What are peoples expectations for QBE shares after the $225m share allocation takes place on the 20th?

[S73417H]

What are peoples expectations for QBE shares after the $225m share allocation takes place on the 20th?

So given today's QBE share prices, I'm gathering peoples' expectations were not good!! :mad:

Fingers crossed they will rise soon.

[cutz]

So given today's QBE share prices, I'm gathering peoples' expectations were not good!! :mad:

Fingers crossed they will rise soon.

Hi S73417H,

There hasn't really been anything negative come out if QBE lately, it's run up quite a bit off its lows so I’m assuming it may be traders banking profits.

Personally I’m waiting for my allocation to come through so I can sell it off as I can’t stand odd lots. As for the main lot I’m still comfortable hanging on for the ride. :2twocents

[S73417H]

I must admit, over the past month or so I have been very disappointed with QBE's performance. I was hoping for a small recovery by now after the shares were diluted by the recent release.

[tge oracle]

Although having been a very long term shareholder in QBE I haven't posted on this company in the past but tonights results have compelled me to congartulate the management of this company for delivering once again at a time when almost everybody was expecting dissapointment during the most difficult periods in my investing lifetime. I only wish all of my investments will achieve the same consistency with results and possess the same quality management as QBE. It is my ideal investment i.e. one that I will never sell!

[S73417H]

Although having been a very long term shareholder in QBE I haven't posted on this company in the past but tonights results have compelled me to congartulate the management of this company for delivering once again at a time when almost everybody was expecting dissapointment during the most difficult periods in my investing lifetime. I only wish all of my investments will achieve the same consistency with results and possess the same quality management as QBE. It is my ideal investment i.e. one that I will never sell!

I second that. The 2008 financial report was excellent. I am very happy that I bought my second lot at 19.80. Looking forward to the future. :)

[TheAbyss]

Looks like even the good ones get a smacking in this climate. Down 10% today on no real news.

Any opinions on why the slide other than flood, bushfires and a financial winter across the broader spectrum?

[Junior]

Anyone have any insight into QBE's share price performance today? Maybe there was something hidden in their annual report which was uncovered over the weekend!

[Logique]

flood, bushfires and a financial winter Not aware of anything apart from this to explain an 11% fall this morning. Big payouts expected after recent natural disasters, and don't forget insurance companies are leveraged to performance of equity markets and in the case of QBE, strongly to the US market which has boken lower. Caught in a payout-earnings squeeze.

[basilio]

QBE just came out with another solid consistent result (as distinct from almost every other financial institution ) Obviously must be a Ponzi scheme ala Stanford or so the market seems to be saying..:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Also watching Oil Search getting hammered - again some excellent results with a very solid LNG project. I just don't think the market is discriminating at the moment. Everything is been thrown out. In theory a great time for discriminating buyers with deep pockets and strong nerve...:confused:

[jonojpsg]

QBE just came out with another solid consistent result (as distinct from almost every other financial institution ) Obviously must be a Ponzi scheme ala Stanford or so the market seems to be saying..:rolleyes::rolleyes::rolleyes:

Also watching Oil Search getting hammered - again some excellent results with a very solid LNG project. I just don't think the market is discriminating at the moment. Everything is been thrown out. In theory a great time for discriminating buyers with deep pockets and strong nerve...:confused:

Would have to agree with you there bas, with profit results like QBE, WOW and OSH leading to big hits on their SP. If I had $15000 to spend right now, I'd be banging $5k on each ;)

[dmagnus]

Profit downgrades from Credit Suisse, UBS and Merrill Lynch = todays lows

Yeah I got in at $17, feeling ok about it

[suri]

Anyone have any insight into QBE's share price performance today? low of 0.04cent its kind of weird ??

[dmagnus]

that was a computer malfunction....

I think the market thinks QBE is going to take over Suncorp, hence the drop

[wabbit]

ASX have "cancelled" all trades on QBE < $15

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,27753,25160144-31037,00.html


TRADES in QBE Insurance Group shares at $15 and below were cancelled on Monday, after the stock registered an aberrant price under one cent low in afternoon trading.

According to Iress data, some QBE shares traded at a low of 0.4 cents between 1426 AEDT and 1428 AEDT, amid overall quiet dealing in the stock market.

The Australian Securities Exchange announced first that the trades were under dispute and then that trades at $15 and below were "to be cancelled''.

At 1445 AEDT, QBE shares were registered at $15.60, down 70 cents.

Course of sales data showed a 500-share parcel of QBE stock was offered at 0.4 cents at 1426 AEDT.

Shares were being bid at $5.04 each a few second later.

Bids were then made at $9.99 and $10 and upward until 1429 AEDT when the stock was bid at $15.63.


Hope this helps.

wabbit :D

[tommymac]

I don't wish to place to much emphasis and exact targets until patterns complete, but $16.00 would be a conservative estimate at this juncture.


Well, $16.00 has been reached. I've started researching this share and I like what I see.

While there are obviously risks (forex, declining margins, falling invest income etc.) and the share price may have been following the US markets, its 2008 results remained strong. It's yield is now approx. 8% and its investment portfolio is defensive with mainly short term cash and fixed interest with no deterioration in quality.

What do you think will be the effect when the ban on shorting is finally lifted? Does anyone know what has happened in the US and UK?

[Nick Radge]

Wave-(iii) has extended to the initial target, which as stated was a "conservative estimate". Wave-(iv) and -(v) are yet to come. We'd need to see a move back above $21.00 to move from bearish back to neutral.

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

[tommymac]

Wave-(iii) has extended to the initial target, which as stated was a "conservative estimate". Wave-(iv) and -(v) are yet to come. We'd need to see a move back above $21.00 to move from bearish back to neutral.


Thanks for the update Nick,

If the price continues to fall, what is the next level of support we can expect?

[gohawks]

Thanks for the update Nick,

If the price continues to fall, what is the next level of support we can expect?

I'm no expert but i believe the share has support at around $15. Looks like it's going up today anyway though!;)

[tommymac]

I just bought in today at $17.77. After all my research I determined its a quality business, diversified by product and region.

While it's main growth is from acquisition it seems to have done this well in the past.

[goldchopper]

I just bought in today at $17.77. After all my research I determined its a quality business, diversified by product and region.

While it's main growth is from acquisition it seems to have done this well in the past.

Tommy, agree. They do need a target to takeover though. In a recession, whats the first bills that are not paid...INSURANCE. but excellent company nonetheless..:D

[gohawks]

I just bought in today at $17.77. After all my research I determined its a quality business, diversified by product and region.

While it's main growth is from acquisition it seems to have done this well in the past.

Good buy. Still kicking myself I didn't get in at under $16 when i was soooo confident it was a great buy. Obviously not confident enough. :banghead:

I'm expecting another small drop in the market next week so might try to get in then.

[S73417H]

Well, it's been a great few weeks for QBE. Hitting that $20 level again now. What are people's thoughts on where it's going next? Push through to $24-$25 area? Or bounce back lower to the $15 mark perhaps? Thoughts?

[dmagnus]

all in at 16.70 =)


only gotta have a few more of those to make up for babcock ;P

[venno]

Anyone know of any news related to why QBE dropped today, I thought they were looking quite after their bust/boom a few months ago?

[johannlo]

Short selling I'm guessing. Also probably people getting out of such a relatively 'defensive' stock and getting into the cyclicals.

Feeling very annoyed at the shorters right now lol (not being one myself), playing havoc with 'investors' and not creating a single ounce of value other than profit to oneself.

Sentiment aside I wouldn't worry about medium -long term

[venno]

Feeling very annoyed at the shorters right now lol (not being one myself), playing havoc with 'investors' and not creating a single ounce of value other than profit to oneself.

Amen to that, it was good while it lasted with no shorts around.

I previously purchased QBE when they dropped down to ~16 and sold when they went over 20, so I got my monies worth out of em. Looks like the karma god is going to take a slice out of me this time around though.

If they can throw on 50c at open I'll be home and hosed though :D

[venno]

Still holding the baby with this one, looks like the stock is on the nose with investors. Still can't find any direct news/announcements that would account for this sentiment.

I guess shorters could be having some fun with it, or maybe the recent weather in eastern states (thus insurance claims) could be pushing sentiment negative. The analysis by Huntleys has the stock rated as a buy, the Financial Times companies anaylsis has the 12 mth median SP at 23 with a high of 29.

Its disconcerting at the moment to see the markets and most stocks on the rise and a supposed premium stock with great prospects trending down.

Will stick it out this week and make a decision on Friday I think.

[Real1ty]

I think the bearish sentiment could also be related to the AU$ as a lot of the earnings occur OS.

It's always difficult to know unless the company has advised of its hedging positions, i haven't looked to know if they have or haven't, but most if not all brokers would be aware of them.

I don't hold and it's just my :2twocents

[S73417H]

My opinion... At this price, QBE is a fantastic buy. Can't go wrong at this level. Holders will be rewarded in the next 6 months.

:2twocents

[Julia]

My opinion... At this price, QBE is a fantastic buy. Can't go wrong at this level. Holders will be rewarded in the next 6 months.

:2twocents
Can you explain how and why holders will be rewarded in the next six months?

That's a very positive assertion to make without providing some justification.

[kam75]

QBE is being sold off and volume is increasingso expect a decline at least in the short term. There's a gap to fill to 18.11 so would not suprise me at all to see it fall to that level.

regards

[venno]

QBE is being sold off and volume is increasingso expect a decline at least in the short term. There's a gap to fill to 18.11 so would not suprise me at all to see it fall to that level.

regards

Ouch, that would sting :eek:

I seriously hope your wrong. I should have bailed yesterday when I was in the black at open.

[S73417H]

QBE is being sold off and volume is increasingso expect a decline at least in the short term. There's a gap to fill to 18.11 so would not suprise me at all to see it fall to that level.

regards

I agree. From a technical standpoint, QBE is set to hit the $18 resistance level. From a fundamental standpoint, the company is still in a very strong position within the market. Acquisitions will most likely be made and QBE should see growth in the medium term. The company is positioned well, with low risk investments. It would be amazing if it managed to break through 18 and hit 15 again (obviously not impossible however).

The only thing that I see hurting QBE short term would be another drop in the cash rate. Given the recent news regarding the Aussie economy, this is becoming more unlikely. My personal opinion is that investing now is relatively safe and $18-$19 represents a good entry point.

If things pan out, and this stock bounces off the 18 mark like I suspect it will, making it back to $25 mark in 6months is not far fetched at all.

That being said, if anyone can suggest anything to the contrary, I would very much appreciate hearing about it.

:2twocents

[johannlo]

Not worried about the medium-long term either with my entry price just a smidgin over 20. I'm nowhere as good with technicals as many of the posters here but I felt that 20 would be in the ballpark for an entry point so here I am. Having said that had I waited another week the shorting ban would have been lifted and I would have gotten in after that sudden drop to 19 a few days ago.

I only get into bluechips for long term defensive (trading the juniors is so much more volatile and fun lol) and with QBE's conservative approach, fundamentals and solid P/E ratio I don't think there's much to fear if you're willing to hang in there for a low risk 20-30% gain over a year or two.

[gerg]

Hi guys
read somewhere that a broker had downrated its earnings by ~5%.
Also it seems that the high AUD might also effect its earnings given its investments in the US.

The fundamentals still seem to be there for the longer term.

[venno]

Woot....Go QBE.

Looks like I won't be singing for my supper after all :p:

Seriously though, I had 2 good 'day' trades on STO and WBC only QBE that dragged the chain but its coming good so all is forgiven.

Interesting stocks commentary in Saturdays West Australian, the columist compared global equity markets to a house of cards and said its all due to fall down (and then ressurect into something bigger. sounds like a phoenix complex).

Ordinarily not a paper I would place much stock in (pardon the pun) when it comes to financial opinion, but things must be shaky when mainstream and traditionaly cautious print media are echoing the sentiment on this (and many other) forums.

[S73417H]

Good result today but maybe just a tad early to be jumping for joy ;) If we close strong above $20 I'll join you venno :)

As a point of interest, the recent moves by the Commonwealth to start raising interest rates signals to me that we can rest assure the cash rate will not be lowered any further. After all, it only has an effect if the banks pass it on and they are doing an about face now.

This is a shimmer of good news for QBE.

[sidious]

I've entered QBE when it dropped to $15 and sold off on the $21 mark. Plus dividends off course :D Looking at the charts of the SP, I'm thinking of a possible repeat of that. :).
At current prices, I find it very hard to enter.

[S73417H]

I've entered QBE when it dropped to $15 and sold off on the $21 mark. Plus dividends off course :D Looking at the charts of the SP, I'm thinking of a possible repeat of that. :).
At current prices, I find it very hard to enter.

Hope you are wrong ;) I don't think 15 will be hit again. There is a move to defensive stocks right now and QBE is obviously on of those stocks. This might help support QBE over the next few weeks.

Is anyone following the Suncorp / Bank of Queensland merger speculation recently? If it were to go ahead, it would require Suncorp to separate out its insurance business. This might be a good opportunity for QBE to roll in and snap it up?

[venno]

Looks like QBE is back in favour, hope this means a good week of gains is ahead of us :D

Is QBE really classed as a traditional defensive stock though ?

[S73417H]

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/cb9e18b4-5f7a-11de-93d1-00144feabdc0.html

About time QBE started to get a bit more information out there.

[S73417H]

Just going to throw up a few charts for QBE. Some interesting things to note. Firstly, there looks to be a head and shoulders pattern formed in the first chart. In the second chart QBE looks to be trading pretty spot-on to the fib retracement I have drawn. Also worth noting, it also looks like that head and shoulders circled is part of a bigger head and shoulders pattern.

Interpret as you will.

Happy trading.

[S73417H]

Some decent news from QBE today with a credit rating raise. Should we break above $20.5, i think there could have a bit of a run up to $25.

[thierry]

How come QBE is still hovering around $20? The rest of the market, and the banks have all been rising.. any thoughts on this?

[GumbyLearner]

How come QBE is still hovering around $20? The rest of the market, and the banks have all been rising.. any thoughts on this?

Thanks for the HEADS UP Thierry

I will look more closely on this thread before I choose to part with the "hard-earned"so to speak.

Cheers
Gumby

[kennas]

Insurers and funds managers were slapped down along with the other financials. Difference has been the spring back in the banks while these have bounced a little then just tracked sideways. There's not much faith in a sustained recovery, or they just weren't sold off as much? Dunno.

RBS has raised them to a buy for some reason.

Brokers haven't got much right recently though.


QBE - RBS Australia rates the stock as Buy
BY BROKER NEWS - 03/08/2009

The group has acquired Elders Insurance and the broker estimates the deal will be slightly EPS accretive by 2010.

In its view the current environment will mean further opportunities for the company and so the broker retains its Buy rating, supported by a modest increase in price target. Sector: Insurance.

Target price is $25.12.Current Price is $19.50. Difference: $5.62 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If QBE meets the RBS Australia target it will return approximately 22% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

[rcm617]

How come QBE is still hovering around $20? The rest of the market, and the banks have all been rising.. any thoughts on this?

Could be the rising $A. QBE earns the greater part of its business from overseas so any rise in the $A will decrease its earnings.

[doctorj]

QBE is quite interesting, particularly over the long term. I like their strategy of not rolling out their brand across their acquisitions and instead look to bring expertise, systems and support to existing strong brands.

Apparently they're looking at potential acquisitions across central and eastern europe at the moment to drive a significant increase the GWP from this region - it could be a decent play on recovery from the GFC over the next few years [strong aud to fund acquisitions, currencies in CEE expected to strengthen in future, increasing insurance penetration in these markets, return of bancassurance etc]

[thierry]

Thanks for the thoughts/comments... its up 30c (1.5%) in early trade.. while the rest of the ASX200 is relatively flat..

I missed the banks run up.. so i'm looking at lower-risk alternatives.

[thierry]

great results, and given the poor results of IAG, is the reason I think it is up again today.

Any thoughts on if this is now in breakout territory? And I would like some advice as to how to position my stops as the SP changes?

I bought in at 19.95, and i'm up 15%. I'm aiming for a profit of 10%+ but would like to ride it as long as possible.

[airpoe]

great results, and given the poor results of IAG, is the reason I think it is up again today.

Any thoughts on if this is now in breakout territory? And I would like some advice as to how to position my stops as the SP changes?

I bought in at 19.95, and i'm up 15%. I'm aiming for a profit of 10%+ but would like to ride it as long as possible.
I got in @ $19, will probably hold as its a quality stock that would unlike see this price, unless anything major happens.

Its paying 62c dividend & increased it profit by 20% this year, just hold nothing to worry about.

[thierry]

yes the dividend is good..so will prob hold it. i'm curious to know what the long term price target is on the stock though. Will be interesting to see what happens to it ex div 2morrow.

[mrluva]

Can anyone pls help me with QBE latest announcement. I dont understand if I need to do anything to participate??and what was that closed on 19August?I didn't even know about any of that.:banghead:
I own 200 shares. Bought this monday. Had old shares before which i mistakenly sold last friday. QBE price is dropping today for whatever reason.:banghead:
Here's a copy of announcement:

2009 Interim Dividend – Closing Date for participation in the Dividend Reinvestment Plan
I refer to our letter dated 21 August 2009.
As with the 2008 final dividend, the closing date for participation in the Dividend Reinvestment
Plan in relation to the 2009 interim dividend is Tuesday, 1 September 2009. Shareholders who
wish to participate should lodge their applications by 5.00pm (Sydney time) that day.
This date is also the record date for calculating entitlements under the 2009 interim dividend.
I confirm participation in the Bonus Share Plan closed on 19 August 2009 for the 2009
interim dividend.

[thierry]

sorry missed participating in the Bonus Share Scheme, so haven't looked into it much. I take my div's as cash to make tax time easier.

[johannlo]

Mate it dropped because it went ex div LOL

Definitely one to keep in the bottom drawer. If you're a trader I'd go elsewhere but solid company, great results and will continue to do so (look at their margins, they're insane).

Disappointing to have lagged in the recent rally but I doubt we'll be complaining in a couple of years time (who invests in blue chips anyway to get rich quick)

[mrluva]

QBE regained its grounds again. Looking strong. keeping it for long term. Thanx for reply guys but I still don't understand when was this bonus share plan open and do I need to apply to participate now for dividend?If you take cash, dont you have to pay maximum tax on it?

[Julia]

, just hold nothing to worry about.
What's your basis for such a assured statement?

[alter1217]

I sold some resource stocks to buy QBE in early august at $19.8, in anticipation of a correction which still hasn't come.

Thought I screwed up this time. Anyways, I held on to QBE as it rose almost 20% over the period (excluding the dividend)... Today it's past $23.5. Sure, not as good as the banks, but I'm still rather happy about it.

I might just keep QBE in my bottom drawer. It's still got a (really) good P/E of ~12.

[thierry]

QBE seems to be consolidating in the 23-24 mark.. however with the USD losing value against the AUD it could affect QBE earnings. A previous post said QBE dervives a lot of its earnings from OS.. Have there any more recent broker reports on QBE?

[White_Knight]

I believe QBE is a good medium-long term yield stock to hold - effectively youre hedging against AUD weakness (i.e commodity strength) since they earn so much offshore. Good way of balancing your portfolio holding of resource stocks.

[johenmo]

Is QBE looking at IAG again? Just read a comment on this elsewhere but haven't seen it anywhere else. Disc - I hold QBE.

[ers_6]

recent profit downgrades, solid company! historically low price!
Clearly 2010 tough year, will they be back.

buy? I am!....

[Chief Wigam]

Yep - we bought some at 18.65 a couple of weeks ago.

i reckon it'll hold out pretty well next week with the market getting in the US dropping on Friday as I reckon it's near a short term low

[brty]

i reckon it'll hold out pretty well next week with the market getting in the US dropping on Friday as I reckon it's near a short term low

You reckon...

Any possibility of sharing why??

Is it because you bought it therefore it should go up??

brty

[oldblue]

There's a few good reasons why it might go up.

- Well managed company. Pick of the insurers.

- SP in a (very) short term uptrend. Good chance that it has bottomed.

- Relative Strength indicator is positive.

Enough for me to be keeping a close eye on QBE.

Disc: Not holding.

:cool:

[Unnamed User]

There's a few good reasons why it might go up.

- Well managed company. Pick of the insurers.


The only thing with that is that it was also a well managed company and the pick of the insurers while it has been dropping in price.

[Julia]

The only thing with that is that it was also a well managed company and the pick of the insurers while it has been dropping in price.
Exactly. It's now worth about half what it was three years ago, yet all during this time it has been widely recommended as a core p/f stock.
It may be a well managed company but it sure as hell isn't reflected in the SP.

[Frenzy3]

This is one I am watching to see how much it goes up .. It fits the bill for me at a p/e bellow 10. I think the price may hit 20.. That is my guess.

[oldblue]

Exactly. It's now worth about half what it was three years ago, yet all during this time it has been widely recommended as a core p/f stock.
It may be a well managed company but it sure as hell isn't reflected in the SP.

A bit of an exaggeration, I think.

QBE's SP three years ago was around $31. But the important issue for me isn't what's been but what might be.

Not one to buy yet, but certainly one to watch, IMO.

[Julia]

A bit of an exaggeration, I think.

QBE's SP three years ago was around $31. But the important issue for me isn't what's been but what might be.
Not much of an exaggeration at all. At the end of July/start August 3 years ago the SP went to $35. Today it's a few cents over $18. Near enough to half.


Not one to buy yet, but certainly one to watch, IMO.
Maybe. But if you compare QBE with many other major industrials it hasn't performed nearly as well so I'd be interested to know why you think it would in the future?

I've held QBE in the past but it just wasn't showing the growth that was easily available from other stocks.

[BrightGreenGlow]

Earnings downgrades and now a new 52 week low today. I hear so many people includes you guys here say QBE is a top stock to hold. Apart from a so-called well managed company why else is it a top stock to hold?

For me QBE has only gone backwards since I bought in around the $20 mark and it's dividends are terrible. Should I get out now or hold it longer? or buy more today to lower my draw even price and hope it kicks up?

I guess you guys cant tell me what to do here but where do you think QBE will go from here?

[Boggo]

I like my ABC etc corrections, in the case of QBE C = A at around 16.54.

To me that is a potential support area (16.25 to 16.75) of interest.
.

[Julia]

Earnings downgrades and now a new 52 week low today. I hear so many people includes you guys here say QBE is a top stock to hold. Apart from a so-called well managed company why else is it a top stock to hold?
Something I've often also asked.


For me QBE has only gone backwards since I bought in around the $20 mark and it's dividends are terrible. Should I get out now or hold it longer? or buy more today to lower my draw even price and hope it kicks up?
John, on what basis would it make sense to you to buy more on the averaging down process, and hope it picks up?
Do you really think hope is the appropriate emotion to attach to buying decisions?

[BrightGreenGlow]

On the basis that the market seems to move for pretty much no reason most of the time. Therefore, there is a good chance QBE will push up a bit tomorrow and level out there for a while.

I remember MQG dive and surge $1-$2 a day for most of 2008-09.

[buysellmestuffed]

With a 62 cent dividend payable 26 th august 2010 shouldnt the share price at least run up to near $18 in the next month . so it should regather lost ground from today . Wait a month and regather that 5.8 % from today .

Or am i wishfull thinking .

The main reason the share dropped was from there investment income not reaching past performances not from there insurance business they actually wrote 20 % more business , they just didnt get the returns on the money invested , with a few bad storms etc thrown in .

Or is it time to bail .

The company says its had a 20 per cent growth in premiums, and a 7 per cent increase in insurance profit to $US820 million, but that has been offset by heavy investment losses.
However, the company says it is likely to maintain its dividend at 62 cents per share.

It has also offered an upbeat medium term outlook, with the company expecting new acquisitions and initiatives this year to add around $US400 million of net profit after tax annually by 2013





http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/07/26/2964219.htm?section=business

[skc]

On the basis that the market seems to move for pretty much no reason most of the time. Therefore, there is a good chance QBE will push up a bit tomorrow and level out there for a while.

I remember MQG dive and surge $1-$2 a day for most of 2008-09.

Move for no reason? 40pc fall in profit seems a pretty good reason for the stock to fall from $25 to $17 in this calendar year.

Having said that, the down move might be closed to the end, and a bounce back might ensure over the next week or two.

[mr. jeff]

Earnings downgrades and now a new 52 week low today. I hear so many people includes you guys here say QBE is a top stock to hold. Apart from a so-called well managed company why else is it a top stock to hold?

For me QBE has only gone backwards since I bought in around the $20 mark and it's dividends are terrible. Should I get out now or hold it longer? or buy more today to lower my draw even price and hope it kicks up?

I guess you guys cant tell me what to do here but where do you think QBE will go from here?

john, I am not an expert but I agree with Julia, don't go catching a falling knife, it's an act of emotion.
You can of course look at that juicy dividend, buy in for that and hold onto the shares for their "optimistic mid term" outlook, but don't buy them because they have fallen so much this year! I own them at the same $20 and thought they were a great buy then, a solid yield and really excellent margin on their written premiums. has that changed?

[BrightGreenGlow]

Skc, sorry I meant that in regards to MQG last year. Well the Dividend is due Ex around the end of next month so now might be a good chance to buy in get the dividend and maybe a lil SP growth in the lead up.

[FXanyone]

Personally dont like to hold stocks where they provide profit warnings a month after year end.

Yes I know technically you can do that but doesnt sit well.

[Julia]

On the basis that the market seems to move for pretty much no reason most of the time.
If you really think that, you're pretty much destined to lose money.


Therefore, there is a good chance QBE will push up a bit tomorrow and level out there for a while.
Why do you think it will push up tomorrow when it fell 5.5% today in contrast to the generally rising market?


Personally dont like to hold stocks where they provide profit warnings a month after year end.

Agree.

[noirua]

I don't hold QBE but nearly bought on certain brokers and others recommendations. If this happened in the States then QBE would be open to Class A actions and some directors would be for the chop. Totally unsatisfactory, incompetance, in fact, a class of 14 year-olds could have done better.

[BrightGreenGlow]

If you really think that, you're pretty much destined to lose money.

Well fundamentally it does. BHP has not announced anything today yet it was up to $40. Now only $39.86. For no reason.

[Julia]

OK, John, I give up on trying to get you to think about why markets move.

I see QBE is down another 3% today. Not pushing up too well, huh?

[Boggo]

If you really think that, you're pretty much destined to lose money.


I'm with you on that subject Julia.

If the current price levels don't hold around the +$16 area we could be heading towards $14 for the next area.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Where is the background commitment, if for any reason it is going to go up? And has that been depleted in recent days?

[Poppypop]

Well it still has a really good broker rating after yesterdays announcement so I think it will rise substancially next month for the dividend payment of 62cents. I'm banking on the fact it will bounce off 16 but could be 15 (unlikely). I couldn't imagine it going under 15 unless there is really bad news. I have bought a substancial amount of this stock today.

[buysellmestuffed]

I've finally listened to some good advice ,:) out today at the close of trade .:eek7:


Waiting for the support level to form and hopefully get on the rise back for the dividend . should get a nice rise up :2twocents if i time the buy right . But i'm not watching it fall any longer . :mad:

Seems i think a whole lot better while i'm not in the market .:)

[jonojpsg]

After a low low open this morning has bounced nicely. IMO this is an excellent point to jump in, which I have, as their latest release, apart from the equity losses, has only good news, and it seems like a major overreaction given that dividend has been maintained, they still have $2.7bn in spare capital to continue acquisitions, profit addons to come online over the next 2-3 years, etc.

Pity I didn't get on first thing, bought in at 16.75, expecting a bounce to 18+ over the next few weeks as reality kicks back in;)

[buysellmestuffed]

Best time to buy is in the morning as they seem to get sold off , i sold at $16.75 was expecting a pull back to near $16.60 to re-enter but have decided to wait and see what happens over the weekend , i don't really want to hold stock as the market seems a little fragile again , the neikki is down 1.78 % and am expecting the dow to drop tonight again as futures are down 40 points .Thats just my opinion :eek7:. But they are very well supported around the 16.75 area .

If the Dow drops over the weekend i'm hoping to rebuy at around $16.30 monday .

[Poppypop]

I think the 16 dollar days are numbered. We are now into August, dividends moving closer. it's going to have to rise soon. I'm reluctant to sell any of my shares under the 1730 mark with a target buy back of 1700 - 1708.

[pixel]

For many months, one of my favourite "investor commentators" has kept saying how "we like QBE"; sadly, each time I looked at QBE's chart, it had dropped another level. On the attached chart, each time a promised recovery hits resistance, my program starts to draw a new orange horizontal line.
(The orange text is my own addition, to make the message stand out.)
Put less theatrically, one could point out that a succession of lower Lows and lower Highs constitutes a falling trend.
Remember: A trend remains a trend till the bend at its end.
38170

[DOC]

i've been watching this one for many years now, and investing in it since 2008.
what i have seen is how remarkably when ever its price has fallen significantly(since 2001) due to negative sentiment in the sector, it has always bounced back strong after reality kicks in. An excellent management team is always a key indicator for me.
do your own research. this ones a keeper.:)

[Poppypop]

i've been watching this one for many years now, and investing in it since 2008.
what i have seen is how remarkably when ever its price has fallen significantly(since 2001) due to negative sentiment in the sector, it has always bounced back strong after reality kicks in. An excellent management team is always a key indicator for me.
do your own research. this ones a keeper.:)

Yup, I concur with you. You must remember QBE only hit $15 last year because of a computer error. It actually went all the way down to $10 in a day but they opened it back up at $15 and it boomed straight up to $16 and higher. It was back at $19 within a month. There's more upside than downside to this stock so I don't see reason for it to keep falling.

I found Pixel's graph very humorous and his line A trend remains a trend till the bend at its end.
reminds me of something out of a Seinfeld episode.:D

[Boggo]

i've been watching this one for many years now, and investing in it since 2008.
what i have seen is how remarkably when ever its price has fallen significantly(since 2001) due to negative sentiment in the sector, it has always bounced back strong after reality kicks in. An excellent management team is always a key indicator for me.
do your own research. this ones a keeper.:)

With all due respect, you guys have got to be kidding. This thing has dropped from over $35 in Sept 2007 and from just over $32 in 2008 and is now just hanging on above $16, how can that be a profitable investment.
A 62 cent (not fully franked) dividend is not going to save it from that reality.
A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to restore it, apply time to that scenario and it puts large downtrends in perspective.

It is a good trading stock in both directions if you catch the turns and apply basic capital protection rules.

That's just my my :2twocents worth from a "the trend is your friend til the bend at the end" approach.

A potential trade scenario below.
.

[Wysiwyg]

It is a good trading stock in both directions if you catch the turns and apply basic capital protection rules.

And noticeably gradually increasing volume rose above average 4 of 5 days last week. Possible 'reprieve' from the relentless downward drive for pivot pickers is the way I see it while a rising index could save the day as with all boats and tides further down the track. :)

[jonojpsg]

Definitely in a serious downtrend agreed, but a downtrend that has just been exacerbated by a one-off writedown that has overshadowed otherwise very good results. These results IMO would have been enough to turn the downtrend, indeed will turn it, however the equity loss spooked holders to sell down which IMO has provided an OUTSTANDING opportunity to get in well below where the turning point would otherwise have been.

Of course this is all IMO and we will have to wait and see whether the trade is proved valid over the course of the next month;)

[Boggo]

And noticeably gradually increasing volume rose above average 4 of 5 days last week. Possible 'reprieve' from the relentless downward drive for pivot pickers is the way I see it while a rising index could save the day as with all boats and tides further down the track. :)

It is playing by the rules that the software predicted on the 23rd so it is potentially worth a look for a $400 risk especially when combined with the current levels of enthusiasm associated with the upcoming dividend.

Note that my comments are based on my procedures and are not a recommendation.

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=569559&postcount=207

[mr. jeff]

Definitely in a serious downtrend agreed, but a downtrend that has just been exacerbated by a one-off writedown that has overshadowed otherwise very good results. These results IMO would have been enough to turn the downtrend, indeed will turn it, however the equity loss spooked holders to sell down which IMO has provided an OUTSTANDING opportunity to get in well below where the turning point would otherwise have been.

Of course this is all IMO and we will have to wait and see whether the trade is proved valid over the course of the next month;)

with you there jonojpsg, but whats the go - the traders think it's a good trading stock atm, the investors think its a good investment at the moment and with a dividend, everyone is happy. All the broker coverage reported has been saying "BUY" which makes me worry. I hear traders screaming sell, probably sensibly, although I agree with others that the div yield will support the sp, particularly with a very solid history behind it. Buffet would be greedy right now.
the trend is great, anyone interested in throwing a floor out there?

Have a look at reported shorts just out of interest:

QBE QBE INSURANCE GROUP LIMITED FPO 6,323,051 953,403 15.07 -.83 1,035,071,131 .09

15% of shares traded as shorts, Friday...
In contrast, Navitas had just over 50% shorts.

I know that you should never attempt to pick the bottom. but anonymously it is something of a novelty. Good luck with QBE this week I'm sure we'll all be watching closely.

[Julia]

With all due respect, you guys have got to be kidding. This thing has dropped from over $35 in Sept 2007 and from just over $32 in 2008 and is now just hanging on above $16, how can that be a profitable investment.
A 62 cent (not fully franked) dividend is not going to save it from that reality.
A 50% loss requires a 100% gain to restore it, apply time to that scenario and it puts large downtrends in perspective.

It is a good trading stock in both directions if you catch the turns and apply basic capital protection rules.

That's just my my :2twocents worth from a "the trend is your friend til the bend at the end" approach.

A potential trade scenario below.
.
I agree. But then I simply never buy into a downtrend.


Definitely in a serious downtrend agreed, but a downtrend that has just been exacerbated by a one-off writedown that has overshadowed otherwise very good results.
jono, how do you know this 'one-off' event will not be followed by further 'one-off' events? What makes you sure that the SP is going to shortly reverse its downtrend?

[noirua]

At least QBE are picking up a few new assets at depressed prices. Will probably do well over the next few years and turn themselves round like conglomerate Wesfarmers - yield will remain a bullish factor, especially when dividends eventually rise.

[jonojpsg]

I agree. But then I simply never buy into a downtrend.


jono, how do you know this 'one-off' event will not be followed by further 'one-off' events? What makes you sure that the SP is going to shortly reverse its downtrend?

Good point Julia - I don't know that there are not more "one-offs" to come, hopefully given QBE's situation the only write-downs that are likely to prove significant would be equity-related, especially now they have shown the numbers on premium income are all good.

Also don't know the trend is about to turn, but as I said, the numbers they just released look pretty darn good to me, and if I was looking for a blue-chip to buy into, this would be close to top of my list, which probably means, given that I tend to be a speccy trader, that there must be a lot of other more conservative types out there who would be thinking the same thing.

Anyways, nice jump today, we'll see whether it is the turn of the tide or just a small wave;)

[Poppypop]

I think the 16 dollar days are numbered. We are now into August, dividends moving closer. it's going to have to rise soon. I'm reluctant to sell any of my shares under the 1730 mark with a target buy back of 1700 - 1708.

My prediction was right on the money. Sold on the open at 1730, I bought back at 1706 later in the day. Looking at buying more back tomorrow if it drops down to 1670 - 75. I highly doubt it will get below 1650 this time around. I'm expecting it to hit 1800 next week and 1900 the week after.

[Chief Wigam]

This is one of the most recommended stocks by Brokers in the market. Also one of the worst performing. Don't you love those brokers...

[Boggo]

Its still hanging in there as a valid long trade based on a previous assessment.
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=571123&postcount=229

Why would anyone want to mess with the likes of QBE, TLS and a list of other broker feel good stocks while there are stocks such as PRU, IAU and AVO etc making money for holders.

[ROE]

I dont usually take brokers and analyst opinion but you got to give it a bit of time ...you don't expect to buy stock and next week it goes up, if you are a trader you probably do :-)

one of the reason I'm staying out because of LMI ... QBE is one of them
and Australian housing look a bit shaky to me could be an event
that could trigger a bit of un-happy time :D

[mr. jeff]

Just for an update, yesterday UBS noted QBE had "turned the corner" whatever this means, and now up 3.5% today. Whether this is the start of a return to some strength in the SP remains to be seen.

[noirua]

Just for an update, yesterday UBS noted QBE had "turned the corner" whatever this means, and now up 3.5% today. Whether this is the start of a return to some strength in the SP remains to be seen.

No doubt a lot of cost cutting is going on and I feel things will improve a lot more in the sector, going forward. That big dividend, good yield at the present price, is good reason enough to hold the stock and let dividends roll in whilst waiting for a recovery.

[Poppypop]

No doubt a lot of cost cutting is going on and I feel things will improve a lot more in the sector, going forward. That big dividend, good yield at the present price, is good reason enough to hold the stock and let dividends roll in whilst waiting for a recovery.

Yep, I concur. I sold 1000 of my 2500 shares at 1825 which i bought for 1716 about a month ago and put it into Telstra @ 278. Looking forward to the nice dividends getting paid into my account next week :) I will consider buying the 1000 shares back tomorrow if Telstra goes up and QBE goes down.

[Ken]

any chartist on QBE at the moment.

looks like it could be heading further south....... ugly ugly for qbe at the moment

[noirua]

any chartist on QBE at the moment.

looks like it could be heading further south....... ugly ugly for qbe at the moment

I'm a basic chartist and the trend all of this year has been downward and that doesn't matter how many analysts make the stock a hold or a buy.
Yield at $16.71 (was $25.50+ in January last) is 7.7% but the earnings yield is just 8.6% - OK for a growth stock but QBE are but a harpooned tank.
Stocks of late that go on down, OST is another, are hard put to drag themselves out of the trend. Both QBE and OST will like WES, so choose your moment well when the falling knife strikes a log, not a passing bird.

[jonojpsg]

I'm a basic chartist and the trend all of this year has been downward and that doesn't matter how many analysts make the stock a hold or a buy.
Yield at $16.71 (was $25.50+ in January last) is 7.7% but the earnings yield is just 8.6% - OK for a growth stock but QBE are but a harpooned tank.
Stocks of late that go on down, OST is another, are hard put to drag themselves out of the trend. Both QBE and OST will like WES, so choose your moment well when the falling knife strikes a log, not a passing bird.

I was looking at this yesterday thinking I might jump in for a small bounce - yield does look good, and has been sitting around 17-17.50 for a while so...will I, won't I?

Really though, apart from spike low in March 09 this has been trading above 16.30ish, since 04/05 so unless there is grim news on the horizon this looks like a value buy...any other comments from more informed analysts??

[johenmo]

Have a very small parcel which I continue to foolishly hold!!! Divs are ok but I think it may be time to flick it - the majority of my money is doing well in other stocks.

But jono the AUD is high and a fair chunk of QBEs money is in US dollars so surely as the dollar remains high QBE will continue to suffer? Looking at the chart it's slowing making it's way south and what make you think it will reverse any time soon? I see more sideways meandering for somtime. Currency issues, insurance payouts staying high as the weather continues to play havoc on mankind, etc

Thinking of selling out, using the money in other stuff and maybe (that is maybe) buy back later when it starts to show it's moving on up.

[jonojpsg]

Have a very small parcel which I continue to foolishly hold!!! Divs are ok but I think it may be time to flick it - the majority of my money is doing well in other stocks.

But jono the AUD is high and a fair chunk of QBEs money is in US dollars so surely as the dollar remains high QBE will continue to suffer? Looking at the chart it's slowing making it's way south and what make you think it will reverse any time soon? I see more sideways meandering for somtime. Currency issues, insurance payouts staying high as the weather continues to play havoc on mankind, etc

Thinking of selling out, using the money in other stuff and maybe (that is maybe) buy back later when it starts to show it's moving on up.

Sorry johenmo, I should make my position clear...I would be trading in using CFDs to make a quick profit on a presumed bounce from mid 16s back to 17ish, with a deposit of around $1500 can buy 2000 CFDs and make a quick $1k from a 50c bounce, which looks like it may play out, although I must say the gap down on Thursday with an open at 16.40 and low of 16.30 would have been a VERY nice but in point rather than my entry the previous day at 16.64!!! Wait and see where it goes Monday;)

[ROE]

Have a very small parcel which I continue to foolishly hold!!! Divs are ok but I think it may be time to flick it - the majority of my money is doing well in other stocks.

But jono the AUD is high and a fair chunk of QBEs money is in US dollars so surely as the dollar remains high QBE will continue to suffer? Looking at the chart it's slowing making it's way south and what make you think it will reverse any time soon? I see more sideways meandering for somtime. Currency issues, insurance payouts staying high as the weather continues to play havoc on mankind, etc

Thinking of selling out, using the money in other stuff and maybe (that is maybe) buy back later when it starts to show it's moving on up.

It is always darkest before dawn :) looking at tickers every day can be bad for you.

I can tell you that QBE is a very good business and insurance business you got to think longer than the market.

Shall I plug a few chapters on insurance business and how they work and why now is probably the best time to buy QBE.

other may disagree including yourself but it food for thought :)

[ROE]

As promise here is a chapter on insurance business

apologies to those already knowing this business in details, for those less well known about this business, they may find some comfort owning insurance security in time of disaster

I only buy insurance company in time of disaster and turmoil, :-)
Insurance business is unlike other business, it has advantages other over look
Insurance collect premium from you and I in a form of premium you pay each year think of your car insurance or landlord insurance etc...

This is a business where you collect before you provide a service, and the service you provide will be in a form of claims.

Until claims are made this money, they called float are kept in the business invest in bonds and stock to generate even more return.

That why it is important to have good management running insurance business. They can skillfully allocate this capital and generate above market return.

Warren Bufett make his Billion because of this insurance float..his insurance division provide him
interest free float where he can compound 15% return a year until a claim is paid out...

the more float you rack in the higher return you going to generate.....Most insurance companies Warren Buffett
acquire, from day one he will work on generate more float from this business for him to then invest in
the market for exceptional return...

I wont bore you too much but this is the example

GEICO in 1998 it has revenue of around 4 Billion, 10 years later in 2008 it has revenue
of 12 Billion and you can tell much more money Warren has in this period :-)

Float on insurance balance sheet are liability but unlike other business liability in a form of debt
it cost other business to have debt in a form of interest..

insurance float are interest FREE, there is no requirement for insurance company to pay interest on
premium its customers pay until the day of claim...

Good insurance company with good management will know how to use these float efficiently and generate
awesome return from their share holders...you can look at QBE charts for the last decade to see what
it has done...

QBE has demonstrated that it can do this nicely over the past decades....QBE prove to you
that it can take this float and invest wisely and get very decent return...

Another day I tell you why when disaster struck, nothing but bad news throw at insurance way,
It is probably the best time to buy insurance company...it has a very nice silver lining once you
understand the business.

Just like Uncle Warren said when he under-write insurance policy when massive disaster struck.

"We are willing to look foolish as long as we don't feel we have acted foolishly"

Learn to ignore the noises and think independently, buy for your own reasons not someone else.. I find most people covering more than 15 stocks they are expert at selling but has very little details knowledge of the business.

Remember if you are an expert and can generate compound annual return at around 15% or more there is no need for you to do sell anything but
invest in the market :D