TAH - Tabcorp Holdings

[baglimit]

1. i'd like to open by saying this is not a ramp - they dont need ramping currently.
2. i dont need to buy anymore & arent planning on selling - SPP for employees was great enough....have since left.
3. refer back to 1 & 2.

hope that eliminates any nasty comebacks. i'm just wondering how far TAH is going to travel. it is tradition for them to have a great run in cup week, but they had a great month prior to that, and have continued on since. a little birdie has told me they are 'very likely' to re-introduce high rollers at star city early next year, to combine with the successful jupiters program and then take on crown ltd in seeking the cream on that weird but wonderful 'win rate'. (i dont know how that works)
what i was also wondering was how former nswtab holders felt about seeing gains in a stock because they are a well run company, not because they are going to be taken over in a bidding war. surely TAB would still be in the $3.50 range if not for this years fight between TAH & UTB. former TAB's pls reply.
does anyone have any recent stock reports from brokers with target prices, as all the ones ive seen have seen the targets passed very quickly lately.

[baglimit]

clearly a dud topic in here - ok, i'll try another

[son of baglimit]

anyone willing to contribute ?

are on the lookout for any broker recommends / ratings for tah - anyone have any ?

still holding - still love the divvies, still love the drp - now for a drop of good news.

[Ann]

Hello to the Baglimit family,

I am happy to put a chart up with a few comments........

Sorry they aren't more positive....but I could be way off of course.

[Julia]

anyone willing to contribute ?

are on the lookout for any broker recommends / ratings for tah - anyone have any ?

still holding - still love the divvies, still love the drp - now for a drop of good news.

Hi Son of baglimit

Some time can you satisfy my wondering about the Baglimit family names?!!

Have checked on "Australian Broker Call" which offers the following from 24 February which is the latest comment on TAH.

Macquarie: Neutral Target price $16.10

SB Citigroup Buy, medium risk Target price $19.60

Merrill Lynch Buy, Low Risk Target price $19.70

J P Morgan Neutral No target price

UBS Neutral Target price $16.15.

On 23 February Huntleys had a recommendation of Accumulate.

Hope this helps.

Julia

[son of baglimit]

thanks for that julia

family - no - one & the same - maybe technical issues, but i prefer to use 'tax dodge' as the reason.

[son of baglimit]

again - a call out for those who have any broker recommendations for tah - just havent seen any in detail....please help.

[Ann]

Hello Son of Baglimit,

I am not with a full service broker, so I don't get recommendations. However I was asked directly on another forum for my opinion of TAH.

May I share my opinion with you, bearing in mind I am someone of no consequence. I am just sharing an opinion for what it is worth.

I do not own any gaming stocks and I am completely unbiased....this does not necessarily make me correct in my assesment. :)

TAH is offering a good yield because the price has fallen quite a bit over the last few months. If it had retained its normal price range you would not be looking at this sort of yield.

The Bracks Government wants to maximise returns from gambling in Victoria, so one of the factors they will be considering is whether Victoria retains the current licensing systems.

Both TAH and Tatts have the best chance to secure the licences beyond their 2012 expiry but the government is looking to attract bids from new players.

TAH has a $600 million break fee that must be paid to them by the Government if the company does not retain its wagering licence however this may be something that could be a trade off in securing a licence.

I understand both Racing Victoria and Queensland's UNiTAB may be interested in TAH's wagering licence and may be involved in a bid for the licence.

Let's have a look at the charts of both UTB and TAH. I have an indicator that I use to guage market sentiment. It is called the Positive Volume Index. It is not a reflection of the price movements....but it is more an indicator of the interest in a company. It can be manipulated but in these two cases I do not believe this is happening.

[Ann]

This is a chart for the potential licence contender....

[Julia]

Ann

Thanks for posting those charts. Another factor probably influencing UTB's recent rise (before going ex-div at least) has been merger/takeover rumours.

Son of Baglimit

Broker Consensus Report as at 23 March for TAH was:

Strong Buy - 4
Hold - 6
Sell - 1

Sometimes, though, this includes recommendations which have been there for a while.

FN Arena has

Deutsche at 17/3 - Hold

Merrill Lynch at 9/3 - Buy

Aspect Huntley at 6/3 - Accumulate

Nothing more recent than that I'm afraid.

Julia

[Ann]

Julia,

Thank you very much for that information. I have put a similar post up in another couple of forums. I have had a response from someone with closer ties to TAH and they may be able to offer a less pessimistic view on TAH. So anyone interested, please stay tuned for another view.

[Julia]

ABN-Amro has just issued a Buy on TAH. Their comment is (roughly paraphrased - can't copy and paste cos copyright):

"In the broker's view the longer the TVN/SKY split on broadcasting racing issue remains unresolved, the more serious it becomes, especially since relicensing process has commenced in Victoria."

I don't hold TAH, just UTB.

Julia

[son of baglimit]

anyone know whats behind current drive ? - well past pre utb/tts news price !!

[Julia]

anyone know whats behind current drive ? - well past pre utb/tts news price !!

Presumably it's being fuelled by persistent rumours (equally persistently denied) that it will attempt to outbid Tattersalls for Unitab.

Julia

[son of baglimit]

i'd argue the opposite - the takeover semed to initially fuel that speculation, and drove the price down, on expectation any bid would be overpriced. the denials and subsequent reports to say it would be a bad idea re-established the price, but now its gone beyond that - is it TVN finalised, or something else ?

[son of baglimit]

my spies tell me Slatter has got NSW racing minister to agree to pooling of NSW & VIC betting pools - if correct, they'd go online within a week of announcing - gee i hope its true.

[son of baglimit]

GEE - WHO SAW THAT COMING ??????????????

[Dutchy3]

This one tempted me at the end of last week yet the selling last Friday was disconcerting. As we head for the close today I've been taking positions as this one is holding reasonably. Not going to set the world on fire. 10 - 20% should be possible from the next 12 months

[GreatPig]

Looks like it could be forming a saucer pattern.

GP

[Dutchy3]

Hi GP

Indeed and then that might be about it ... If It does see 17.30 ish without much excitment that might prove to be a good time to bale. Its proven to be a bit of a bugger to watch over the years as it can turn in days / weeks where it is dumped upon in what otherwise is a strong up trend. It's size and position in the market almost make it madatory for the diversified fund to hold and yet they are quite prepared to cane it at the same time.

That said 5% margin on the position and a 10 - 20% move in price offers plenty of return.

[son of baglimit]

the 1st post of this thread mentions tah having a good october, prior to traditional v.good cup week - same again maybe. theres a bit of press now re:vic govt reluctance to disturb current pokies licences.
this sort of press versus the anti gambling movement are too often the catalist for changes in direction for tah.

closer to the election might see a new point of view.

post election though im expecting blue sky....$18 +

[Dutchy3]

Hi son of baglimit

Have you any additional info on your 1800 +?

I'm actually a bit surprised how well this one held up this week

[son of baglimit]

im assuming its holding up with speculation of what packers gonna do with his new billions - he would want tah's casinos, and while the ACCC might wanna say something about it, the packers have very big friends and would probably get the deal done.
ive heard wagering going very well (drought means no cancelled meetings) and as mentioned, anti gambling folk are being ignored in run up to vic govt elections.

GO TAH

[son of baglimit]

while trying to find out whats behind recent TAH surge, found this from melb herald sun on 1/1/07

TABCORP is expected to learn within two weeks whether it can create a $10 billion mega-betting pool by merging its New South Wales and Victorian totes.

If the merger receives NSW Government approval, punters could have access to the combined totalisator pool in time for the Sydney autumn carnival.
"Pooling the NSW and Victorian TABs is close," Tabcorp supremo Robert Nason said.

"We have a proposal with Treasury and hope to hear something in the next two weeks. It could happen by March or April but that is only if we can get Government approval soon and agreement from the racing industry."

NSW TAB has the nation's largest totalisator betting with annual wagering turnover of more than $5.5 billion.

Victoria's SuperTAB pool includes TABs from Tasmania, the ACT and Western Australia, with a betting turnover of more than $4 billion annually.

The NSW Government has sought guarantees from Tabcorp that government and racing industry revenues will not fall if approval is granted.

The merger would provide much larger and more stable betting pools and help to stimulate punter interest with bigger dividends.

Opponents of the TAB merger say it wipes out competition between totes, taking away choice and betting options from punters.

It is understood Tabcorp has some alternative plans if the NSW Government still has concerns about pooling.

It may look to introduce trial pooling on one code only, or to introduce pooling on certain bet types such as trifectas.

Nason also confirmed Tabcorp should be in a position to co-pool with the New Zealand TAB in the next few weeks.

[Chief Wigam]

SOB,

Thanks for the post. No announcements on this. It's been >2 weeks. Have you heard anything?

[son of baglimit]

what a nice day......sure to generate a speeding ticket.

and what that reveals is the great mystery.

off market buyback for $350M - apparently

takeover by any number of parties - hopefully

struggling gaming stocks flavour of the month - doubt it

[stockpile]

Came across this article yesterday, this whole scenario could have a flow on effect with either PBL or Mac bank.



SPECULATION Publishing and Broadcasting Ltd or Macquarie Bank could be lining up a consortium to take over the country's largest gambling group have sent Tabcorp shares soaring.

The shares closed more than 90c higher at $18 yesterday on rumours PBL and Macquarie were behind a series of large trades throughout the day that pushed volumes to double their normal levels.

In the past three weeks shares in Tabcorp, owner of Sydney's Star City casino, have surged 8 per cent.

Private equity raiders have also been touted as potential bidders for the wagering and gaming business, which recently saw its chief executive Matthew Slatter forced out the door. His removal came after he admitted the company faced a challenging year, with weak performances at its casinos and a blowout in costs resulting in first-half profit slumping 22 per cent to $224 million.

Talk of consolidation in the gaming sector has been helped by last month's announcement by PBL that it would buy a group of Canadian casinos in a $1.45 billion joint venture with Macquarie and last week's move by PBL to buy a stake in a yet-to-be built casino and hotel development in the US.

Tabcorp rival Tattersall's has also been raised as a potential target for raiders.

Tatt's has also teamed up with Macquarie Bank recently to take over UK gaming operator Talarius, which operates 197 gaming sites incorporating 9500 electronic gaming machines.

Fund manager Perpetual's head of Australian equities, John Sevior, said yesterday said he had not heard any news about the company but agreed there had been rumours about predators circling Tabcorp for months.

Tabcorp has the licence to operate half the slot machines in Victorian clubs and pubs, as well as the monopoly off-course tote wagering licence in the state.

As well as Sydney's Star City it owns three casinos in Queensland, the off-course tote in NSW and racing TV channel Sky.

PBL owns Crown Casino in Melbourne as well as Perth's Burswood, and is building two casinos in Macau as part of a joint venture with Hong Kong-based Melco, one of which is due to open next month.

PBL has been on the lookout for good gaming assets after generating $4.6 billion by spinning-off some of its media assets into a 50-50 joint venture company with a private equity group last October.

It has been raised as a potential new entrant to the NSW casino market if the state government agrees to allow a new entrant when Star City's exclusive licence expires in September.

Potential sites are either the northern NSW town of Tweed Heads, or the Hunter Valley.

UBS gaming analyst Sam Theodore yesterday said the likelihood of a second casino was "very limited". Instead, he said, the NSW authorities would probably increase gaming taxes or demand a hefty upfront payment to ensure Star City remains the state's exclusive casino.


My theory is that PBL are preparing plans for a new casino in Sydney as Star City's 12 year exclusivity rights expire in September. By Acquiring a large share in TabCorp they will position themselves as the major players in the city and maintain a stranglehold on the local gaming market. It's no secret that James Packer sees the future of PBL in the gaming sector and this development adds further weight to this outlook.

[trading_rookie]

TAH are strongly denying any takeover talk with either PBL or McBank. Price has gone from a high of 18 to 17.70's.

I was under the impression the price was being driven up with the talk of Ziggy becoming CEO ;-)


what i was also wondering was how former nswtab holders felt about seeing gains in a stock because they are a well run company, not because they are going to be taken over in a bidding war. surely TAB would still be in the $3.50 range if not for this years fight between TAH & UTB. former TAB's pls reply.


The cash payout was good, but the ratio of TAB:TAH shares wasn't...maybe I should have bought more TAH when they were at the $10 mark...no point crying over spilled milk.

To be honest the only reason why I will hold onto my TAH stocks is because of the benefits card :-)

[canaussieuck]

Interesting juncture, could you possibly get more 'symmetric? I like how the i got a signal to go short and long on the same candle! lol!

Cheers,

[X888]

THE equine flu shutdown cost the NSW TAB $40 million in lost betting turnover yesterday and threatens to financially cripple the racing industry.

Interstate TABs and bookies nationwide lost more than $150 million as authorities cancelled all racing for the first time in memory.

The NSW TAB stood to lose $1 billion in betting turnover if the ban lasted for two months, Racing NSW chief executive Peter V'Landys said.

Yesterday's unprecedented cancellation of racing across Australia left NSW TABs and racetracks looking like ghost towns.

Punters had no races to bet on during the TAB's busiest period – Saturday afternoon – after a New Zealand gallops event at 12.10pm yesterday.

[numbercruncher]

Yes going to be interesting to see how badly the market punishes Tabcorp for these unfortunate events!



THE equine flu shutdown cost the NSW TAB $40 million in lost betting turnover yesterday and threatens to financially cripple the racing industry.

Interstate TABs and bookies nationwide lost more than $150 million as authorities cancelled all racing for the first time in memory.



http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,22309915-462,00.html

[Ken]

Buying opportunity in my opinion.

Temporary pain for long term gain.

6.2% dividend at current prices.

Those who picked up $15.10 on open yesterday would have also received the 47 cent dividend.

Long term winner.

If you cant beat the TAB, you might as well join it.

People are always going to gamble.

[Ken]

Late surge for TABCORP on low volume.

Bit of cash has been made on TAH lately.

Good trading ranges.

Dont know whether its a short considering the dividend is around 6.3% now...

Limited downside I would think....???

[bigdog]

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,22675551-664,00.html

Yesterday there was talk about Packer starting a second Casino in Sydney!!!!

Tabcorp's monopoly
October 31, 2007 12:00am

GAMING giant Tabcorp Holdings will remain the sole operator of a casino in New South Wales for the next 12 years.

The announcement came after Tabcorp agreed to pay the NSW government a $100 million up-front fee and higher taxes on casino revenue.

In return, Tabcorp will be allowed to make various product changes to help make its Star City casino in Sydney more attractive to gamblers.

The company also said the new deal gave it the certainty it needed to proceed with a $300 million refurbishment of Star City, which would include a new 300-room hotel and restaurant precinct.

Tabcorp will pay the $100 million fee in two $50 million tranches - one this financial year and in 2008-09.

It will also move to a new indexed tax regime based on revenue from table games and slot machines. The current average tax rate will lift from 24.1 per cent to 27.5 per cent in 2013.

Tabcorp shares were 16c higher at $15.28.

[Gurgler]

In Trading halt pending the State Govt's ending of the poker machine duopoly held by Tatts & Tabcorp. (see Age article today: http://business.theage.com.au/tabcorp-tatts-lose-poker-machine-duopoly/20080410-251y.html)

What views on the outcomes? Both have other gaming interests, I guess.

Holding both :banghead:

[son of baglimit]

i am so so so so glad i got out last may at $18.70 - thought it was too good a price, and now benefitting.

theres so little mention of the fact they have lost the wagering licence too, but of course they can bid for it as its up for tender....but it WILL BE keenly sought by others too.

i hate to think of the trading when they reopen - if anyone gets broker updates please pass on their targets...thanks.

[dontknow]

They are losing their Vic pokie license and probably the $600m the license is valued at on their balance sheet (how do you say extraordinary). Not good (if you own TAH). At least it's not for another 4 or so years.

[reece55]

They are losing their Vic pokie license and probably the $600m the license is valued at on their balance sheet (how do you say extraordinary). Not good (if you own TAH). At least it's not for another 4 or so years.

Geez... The amortisation of the licence will probably choke up their profit for the next 4 years unless the Vic Govt actually gives them something back for it. Personally, I don't think this will be the end, I would assume that Tabcorp will probably seek some form of compensation......

Pre the licence, Tabcorp is now probably trading at 13 - 15 times earnings, so fundamentally it may be attractive. But obviously a fair bit of technical damage when a stock goes down > 20%.... Good luck to long term holders her, nothing worse than waking up to something like this.

Cheers

[Knobby22]

They don't deserve a cent in compensation. They were running a duopoly given to them by the useless Joan Kirner.

It is good to see it getting fixed. There was always the risk they would lose this, we just thought the politicians would be corrupted by the massive amounts of money given to the party during elections and hiring of ex politicians. Brumby has done a good thing and I will have to rerate the man.
Love to see it occur in Tasmania with Gunns, unfortunately they have hopelessly corrupted the Liberal and Labour parties.

[njc.corp]

They don't deserve a cent in compensation. They were running a duopoly given to them by the useless Joan Kirner.

It is good to see it getting fixed. There was always the risk they would lose this, we just thought the politicians would be corrupted by the massive amounts of money given to the party during elections and hiring of ex politicians. Brumby has done a good thing and I will have to rerate the man.
Love to see it occur in Tasmania with Gunns, unfortunately they have hopelessly corrupted the Liberal and Labour parties.

Has my first post - i must agree with u their-

Its a good change-

how do they feel about droping 20+% in a day = ask the victims they have had for a while

Nick--

[dalek]

They don't deserve a cent in compensation. They were running a duopoly given to them by the useless Joan Kirner.

It is good to see it getting fixed. There was always the risk they would lose this, we just thought the politicians would be corrupted by the massive amounts of money given to the party during elections and hiring of ex politicians. Brumby has done a good thing and I will have to rerate the man.
Love to see it occur in Tasmania with Gunns, unfortunately they have hopelessly corrupted the Liberal and Labour parties.

This whole distasteful episode is just another remnant of one of the most shameful State Governments us Victorians have had to endure during the Kirner / Cain era.

But don't get too warm and fuzzy towards Brumby there is a whole lot of self interest going on here. General opinion seems to be that this will provide him with windfall of up to $8B for State coffers.

[Bill M]

But don't get too warm and fuzzy towards Brumby there is a whole lot of self interest going on here. General opinion seems to be that this will provide him with windfall of up to $8B for State coffers.

You are on to something here, I've read the new licenses could be worth up to $2B. The only winner here is the Vic Government, cashing in on the new licenses. Don't worry the amount of machines, they stay the same, they will still reap the same taxes as well. Not for a second do I think it is good for the community, nothing changes for the punter. TAH and TTS may still sue, they are considering their options right now. What the outcome of that (if any) will be I will leave for the lawyers to work out.

[Ken]

What I dont get is people think that is going to reduce problem gambling.

If people want to play the pokies. There is always going to be on available.

It's like fast food. If someone wants kfc, they will find away off getting to one.

Will be interesting to see how low Tabcorp goes the dividend is already 8%.

[bigdog]

They were talking on the radio politicians sell out of Tabcorp and Tatts in the days before the Brumby ANN

Can anyone identify pollies that sold Tabcorp and Tatts in the days before the Brumby ANN?

[Bill M]

"A 13-YEAR-OLD letter appears to have doomed plans by gambling giants Tabcorp and Tatts Group to sue the Victorian Government for $1.2 billion in compensation over the loss of their duopoly grip on the state's poker machine licences."

Full Story Here (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,23533756-643,00.html)

[trading_rookie]

Re: the recent high court decision going Betfair's way, then it's likely Tabcorp and Tatts could propose a merger...that'd be interesting indeed.

[son of baglimit]

the ACCC rejected TAH's takeover proposal on competition grounds for wagering (still shaking my head on that one) so to think they would NOW allow it is doubtful (true, funny things happen).

a merged TAH/TTS would own or control all wagering in eastern australia, lotteries in victoria, and all casinos thru NSW & QLD.

thats a lot of the gambling dollar potentially going thru 1 set of doors.

doubt it.

and even if it was allowed, who says NSW Govt would allow the wagering pool to be merged with Vic & QLD - they have resisted so far - why? - thru some fanciful idea that because TAH couldnt GUARANTEE turnover wouldnt decrease - every expert in the world would say it would, but because it couldnt be GUARANTEED, they knock it back - well thats the reasoning given anyway - i assume its some hatred of TAH after the sky channel debacle.

[trading_rookie]

True, but it is this state protectionism of TAB's that saw Betfair's recent success in the high courts. This is the ruling that's fueling the rumours...but as you say the ACCC can still knock it back on anti-competitve behaviour.

Re: compensation, it could end up being $600m to TAH, or any value in between, even zero!. It depends on the price of the license being issued in 2012. Vic gaming law states that any compensation being paid is either the value of the previous license or the premium being paid by the new licensee...whichever is the lesser. If they give out a license for free, that equates to zero compensation.

Unfortunately for us TAH shareholders, the TAH board has always believed that a future license would be worth more than what they paid in 1996...wishful thinking perhaps, I'm hoping they were right :-)

[son of baglimit]

from the info out there about 4 years ago on the compensation, TAH get $600m, TTS get zilch.

sorry thats purely from memory - no source.

[ROE]

Anyone know where I can get TAH information on their break down earning
for each division.

Stuff I like to see which is not in Annual report is

Poker division how much they make
casino division how much they make
wagering division how much they make etc..

I will do my bit and email them but if anyone know where I can dig that up that would be nice ..

ta

[CAB SAV]

Anyone know where I can get TAH information on their break down earning
for each division.

Stuff I like to see which is not in Annual report is

Poker division how much they make
casino division how much they make
wagering division how much they make etc..

I will do my bit and email them but if anyone know where I can dig that up that would be nice ..

ta

This is all I could find at the moment. If I get time, i'll have a look tonight.
EBIT 2H08
Vic. gambling 111.2m
Vic. wagering 43.4m
Casino's 168.8m
NWS wagering 86.3m
Keno 19.4m

[ROE]

This is all I could find at the moment. If I get time, i'll have a look tonight.
EBIT 2H08
Vic. gambling 111.2m
Vic. wagering 43.4m
Casino's 168.8m
NWS wagering 86.3m
Keno 19.4m

Thanks.. I also got a reply email from their investor relation so I'm fairly impress with their details email and the quick turn around.. if you got anything else can you dropped me an IM :-) ...

Financial statement tick off
Management 1/2 tick still got some more research to do :D

thanks

[Dangerous]

Latest thoughts anyone? I'm thinking debt high, threats from the on-line gamers and regulatory risks. However, dividend looking fantastic... a good one for the SMSF?

[trading_rookie]

Comments re: the Share Purchase Plan? Anyone yet to subscribe, thinking about subscribing or rejecting the plan?



Latest thoughts anyone? I'm thinking debt high, threats from the on-line gamers and regulatory risks. However, dividend looking fantastic... a good one for the SMSF?

You're thinking is wrong...debt is not high (check their half-year report for confirmation), they have enough stored away for a rainy day not to mention the extra $300million institutions snapped up recently in the SPP, and the $150million offered to retailers will mean the go ahead required to refurbish the Casino in Sydney and possibly purchase NSW Lotteries.

As far as threats from on-line gambling, TAH recently purchased a Sydney-based company and relocated them to the NT to get in on the action. Not to mention forcing on-line gaming companies to pay TAB royalties for posting race start lineups and results. As you can imagine the they're not too happy.

As for dividend, well as all companies it's being slashed to preserve capital. TAH has slashed it by 70-80% of profits from previous benchmarks of 90-90% profit. Another precaution to preserve if and when the economy gets worse...says something about our government out on a spend-a-thon...maybe they should take lessons from the business community who are doing the opposite...

[Bill M]

Comments re: the Share Purchase Plan? Anyone yet to subscribe, thinking about subscribing or rejecting the plan?


That is a very easy decision. Right now the shares are trading at $6.37 and the issue price is $5.80. You have 2 choices, sell some now at $6.37 and buy it back (5K worth) at $5.80 or just buy a new parcel at $5.80. I am doing the first choice and pocketed a 50c per share profit.:D

[ROE]

I fully subscribe with the SPP :-) yesterday and then more outlay today for FLT :D .. bank account getting low

[trading_rookie]

I don’t know guys, I’m still umming and arring…you sound pretty optimistic that you’ll get allocated $5K worth of shares. Having participated in a previous SSP, they’re usually over-subscribed and months later if you’re lucky you end up with the minimum offer, in TAH’s case that’ll be $500 worth of shares.

I didn’t read anywhere on the SSP that they were guaranteeing x number of shares for y existing number of shares. So as tempting as it seems selling at todays closing price of $6.41 (last week would have better at $6.59) and keeping fingers crossed that one will be allocated all the shares they’re after with the proceeds sounds too risky.

I suspect that’s what a lot of punters are doing – and what they’ve done with all the other publicly-listed companies doing a capital raising.

According to analysts however, companies like TAH that are just shoring up their positions – ie, they don’t really need the cash like CBA, which they predict will see their price head south….as I said, still umming and arring. ;-)

[Bill M]

Tabcorp has extended the offer period to 5pm Wednesday 4 March 2009. There was a problem apparently with the BPay code. So if you haven't done it yet there is still time.

From Company Announcement:

----------------------------

"Since yesterday evening, shareholders who wished to use the BPAY facility that had been established to lodge their application have been unable to access the BPAY facility as the prescribed Biller Code ceased to function."

---------------------------

For further information go to the company announcement dated 27/02/2009.

[ROE]

Tabcorp has extended the offer period to 5pm Wednesday 4 March 2009. There was a problem apparently with the BPay code. So if you haven't done it yet there is still time.

From Company Announcement:

----------------------------

"Since yesterday evening, shareholders who wished to use the BPAY facility that had been established to lodge their application have been unable to access the BPAY facility as the prescribed Biller Code ceased to function."

---------------------------

For further information go to the company announcement dated 27/02/2009.

mine went through fine Tuesday or Wednesday.. crazy to leave it so late as the money has to be in 5pm Friday and if bank stuff up the batch job they maybe too late..better off pay 2 or 3 days before hand.

[trading_rookie]

I take it everyone is happy with the SPP ;-)

Anyone taking the plunge and buying TAH corporate bonds?

[ROE]

I take it everyone is happy with the SPP ;-)

Anyone taking the plunge and buying TAH corporate bonds?

Better return buy the stocks ... it gives similar yield :D
Bond is more for income earner rather than investor looking for a bit of dividend and capital growth with a bit of risk for capital going backward.

Don't know why people don't get TAH for $5.80 :-) get pass the doom and gloom paper and read into what they do and their market position and various other information I would have bought 50K if they let me :-)

[trading_rookie]

I like the bond...good as a hedge regardless if things do or don't improve. If they improve then the fixed margin of 4.25%pa on it's own without taking the 90-day bank bill rate into account, will mean a not too shabby return of 21% over the 5 yr period - I'm assuming the bank bill rate will be useless. Whereas, if things get worse and the rate mirrors '74 double digit numbers then I'll be happy too ;-)

Last time I checked the 90 day Aussie bank bill was @ 3.05% so that would mean a quarterly return of (4.25+3.05) 7.3% pa, better than any banking on-line account or term deposit.

[Gerkin]

I like the bond...good as a hedge regardless if things do or don't improve. If they improve then the fixed margin of 4.25%pa on it's own without taking the 90-day bank bill rate into account, will mean a not too shabby return of 21% over the 5 yr period - I'm assuming the bank bill rate will be useless. Whereas, if things get worse and the rate mirrors '74 double digit numbers then I'll be happy too ;-)

Last time I checked the 90 day Aussie bank bill was @ 3.05% so that would mean a quarterly return of (4.25+3.05) 7.3% pa, better than any banking on-line account or term deposit.

I will admit good return, However you should look at the fundamental business that will be producing this income. There are alot of changes happening in Victoria in the next 2 years in regards to gambling especially pokies. Look at this first.

Also look at other listed hybrids/bonds that are currently on offer. You can buy these on the exchanges

[trading_rookie]

I will admit good return, However you should look at the fundamental business that will be producing this income. There are alot of changes happening in Victoria in the next 2 years in regards to gambling especially pokies. Look at this first.

Vic is only one dimension of their total core business and if they win the tender for the Tassie tote and/or NSW lotteries, not to mention the recent relocation of an online gaming business they bought in Sydney and moved to NT to cash in on the billions being generated by these on-line services, current revamp of the Sydney Casino, the interest in buying their smaller QLD casinos, even though as far as I’m aware they’re not interested in selling…who knows there might be a deal on the table that no court action over the loss of the VIC pokies will see TAH keep the VIC tote and maybe even win the maintenance contract for VIC pokies…don’t forget NSW tote is a nice little earner.

Pardon the pun, but that’s the ‘gamble’ one takes when investing ;-)



Also look at other listed hybrids/bonds that are currently on offer. You can buy these on the exchanges

The attractive thing about TAH Bonds is the fixed margin…I haven’t seen anyone offer better than that. Not to mention with talk of interest rates going further down, I’m not too keen on paying more for an existing bond that will return less.

As you can probably tell, not interested in buying and selling bonds on the market, I’m comfortable with the risk and happy to see the bond mature in 5 yrs time and not only get back my initial investment but hopefully good returns in a couple of years when all this talk of market recovery turns into fruition and interest rates start going back up …

[son of baglimit]

Vic is only one dimension of their total core business and if they win the tender for the Tassie tote and/or NSW lotteries, not to mention the recent relocation of an online gaming business they bought in Sydney and moved to NT to cash in on the billions being generated by these on-line services, current revamp of the Sydney Casino, the interest in buying their smaller QLD casinos, even though as far as I’m aware they’re not interested in selling…who knows there might be a deal on the table that no court action over the loss of the VIC pokies will see TAH keep the VIC tote and maybe even win the maintenance contract for VIC pokies…don’t forget NSW tote is a nice little earner.



as far as TAH's record in buying up other assets, they have tended to go for the large scale buys, rather than small totes etc. go back and see what QTAB paid for SATAB all those years ago - only a few million. tah showed no interest.
yes i know the scene has changed and betfair etc are based there, potentially helping turnover in that state, as well as their well publicised o/s deals, but you can guarantee the state govt has overpriced that asset (totetas) and it will bring very little.

[trading_rookie]

as far as TAH's record in buying up other assets, they have tended to go for the large scale buys, rather than small totes etc. go back and see what QTAB paid for SATAB all those years ago - only a few million. tah showed no interest.


But if they lose VIC tote that will only give them NSW, so Tassie would be appealing, small or not.

As a former TAH employee bags, were they interested in QTAB and SATAB or was monopoly concerns one of the reasons they didn’t bid? As history shows, talk of a TAH/Tatts merger would have been rejected on these grounds.


yes i know the scene has changed and betfair etc are based there, potentially helping turnover in that state, as well as their well publicised o/s deals, but you can guarantee the state govt has overpriced that asset (totetas) and it will bring very little.

True, both TAH and Tatts are down playing the governments asking price…by about 100-150 mill, but the government is offering very attractive sweeteners, and from what I’ve read further, are opening up the tender to overseas companies, forcing the 2 Aussie gaming giants to make a tender and keep almost a duopoly in Oz.

[son of baglimit]

were they interested in QTAB and SATAB or was monopoly concerns one of the reasons they didn’t bid? As history shows, talk of a TAH/Tatts merger would have been rejected on these grounds.

they bid for qtab, but that was rejected on competition grounds (on very poor reasoning btw)
and yes, theres no chance in hell of tah/tts marrying.

and thanks to the rumour mongers again for the packer takeover stuff back in 07 - a nice exit that was.

[trading_rookie]

Tabcorp Bonds (TAHHA) up $2 to $102, and the first quarterly payment will be at 7.33%...not bad, not bad indeed.

[ROE]

I will admit good return, However you should look at the fundamental business that will be producing this income. There are alot of changes happening in Victoria in the next 2 years in regards to gambling especially pokies. Look at this first.

Also look at other listed hybrids/bonds that are currently on offer. You can buy these on the exchanges

that is old news already factor that into the price :D, that sort of doom and gloom scenario create beautiful opportunity for investors who truly understand tabcorp operation :D

Tabcorp has all the upside from the Victoria Govie decision now that it's factor into the price..one court case could go Tabcorp way...Similar case happen in US and judgement rule in Tabcorp like favor.

and the other one I like to believe that not in the realm of impposibility is most clubs don't have the financial and capital like tabcorp to snap up the license
and bring on the global financial crisis it shape up more likely than not :D

so in the end it could create head ache for Vic govie and may force to delay or do some deal with Tabcorp in the end :D

and Victoria only account for Tabcorp 25% earning, why knock this dog around so hard hehe ..FEAR rule the market

oh don't forget the internet fear too :-), small operators going to kick Tabcorp ass with their nice little wagering internet site...latest report tabcorp wagering up 13% in revenue year to date :D

[No.1MoneyMaker]

Is any one still following this?? The price looks quite attempting, and I'm thinking to get in. But the price has just dropped 10% in one week, any ideas ??? :confused::confused:

[son of baglimit]

following, but only for old times sake.

way too much uncertainty in earnings going forward, with gaming 3 years to run, wagering licence in vic to be determined, and star city getting spending for inconsistent returns. on an historical level the SP is attractive, but not for me right now, especially with no free govt money on the horizon.

[Dark1975]

big push today,gunna come back with charts to see if there's a potential key reversal here,not sure yet brb if anything interesting:)

[skip9]

Have seen alot of "Buy" recommendations for this stock. Whats there future, even though they will be losing their Pokies license, it generally has good dividends. Anybody have some useful information or thoughts about Tabcorp?

[rtjoa]

Have seen alot of "Buy" recommendations for this stock. Whats there future, even though they will be losing their Pokies license, it generally has good dividends. Anybody have some useful information or thoughts about Tabcorp?

Hi Skip, I'm a beginner in stock trading. However, heres my :2twocents

I think this year will be a good year for bookmakers (one of TAB subsidiary), with the world cup is in play. Generally for all bookies across the globe this will be the time when betting turnovers will be at its peak.

With Australia being a multicultural country (most importantly socceroo is there as well), I can see this can be a great year for TABSportsbet. However, the emergence of online bookies has certainly took some share of the pie in the betting market from TAB. Nevertheless, It is not something that your average joe gambler are comfortable with. Somehow they are still not too convinced with online bookmakers' credibility on them handling their money. As for TAB, your money is more or less 100% safe (very important for high stakes roller).

[It's Snake Pliskin]

There has been no banter on this one for a while. Considering the heavy background volume in May and a speeding ticket revealing no information, are we seeing a new trend back up after a double bottom at the point of one year lows or is it looking like another countertrend with an expiry not too far away?
Disclosure: I hold for technical reasons suitable to me.

[pixel]

There has been no banter on this one for a while. Considering the heavy background volume in May and a speeding ticket revealing no information, are we seeing a new trend back up after a double bottom at the point of one year lows or is it looking like another countertrend with an expiry not too far away?
Disclosure: I hold for technical reasons suitable to me.

you're not alone, SP
I started buying at the break on the 20th, but decided it'd be better to be a well-off coward than a broke daredevil - and sold last Friday.
As today's trading closed above previous resistance, I bought back in.
$7.12, $7.28, $7.52 are my next targets (but I'll take early profit again if resistance levels won't agree with me.)

[It's Snake Pliskin]

you're not alone, SP
I started buying at the break on the 20th, but decided it'd be better to be a well-off coward than a broke daredevil - and sold last Friday.
As today's trading closed above previous resistance, I bought back in.
$7.12, $7.28, $7.52 are my next targets (but I'll take early profit again if resistance levels won't agree with me.)
Hi Pixel,

With a good week of rises on this one, did you take a Friday sell opportunity again? It seems to have dropped a bit, which is ok, with a bit more volume than previous days this week. I see it as if Friday sellers offloaded some, perhaps. Interesting psychology why risk is not held over the weekend. I still hold.

[pixel]

Hi Pixel,

With a good week of rises on this one, did you take a Friday sell opportunity again? It seems to have dropped a bit, which is ok, with a bit more volume than previous days this week. I see it as if Friday sellers offloaded some, perhaps. Interesting psychology why risk is not held over the weekend. I still hold.

Hi SP,
I actually sold already on Thursday for $6.89; the decision was based

on Options distribution, which peaked at $6.87
on price target analysis, which suggested resistance at first Fibonacci level
and seeing the overhead one-year EMA

Re #1, consider that Friday's volume includes 902,000 shares sold at $6.87 by options writers, who had already pocketed the premium and can't feel too unhappy about selling at that price. Imagine how they'd feel if they had an inkling that TAH may drop back to the $6.70's if not lower :p: (I'm sure you know that the majority of options are written by large Fundies and Hedgies.)
Re #2 and 3, see the chart below.
38161

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hi SP,
I actually sold already on Thursday for $6.89; the decision was based

on Options distribution, which peaked at $6.87
on price target analysis, which suggested resistance at first Fibonacci level
and seeing the overhead one-year EMA

Re #1, consider that Friday's volume includes 902,000 shares sold at $6.87 by options writers, who had already pocketed the premium and can't feel too unhappy about selling at that price. Imagine how they'd feel if they had an inkling that TAH may drop back to the $6.70's if not lower :p: (I'm sure you know that the majority of options are written by large Fundies and Hedgies.)
Re #2 and 3, see the chart below.
38161
Pixel,
It seems you are on a shorter time frame to me. On the daily I am happy to see it drop back a bit to confirm the break level.
Cheers...

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I got ripped up on the big nasty open gap with TAH. Any profit I had on Wednesday was gone by Thursday. Now out.

[mr. jeff]

I got ripped up on the big nasty open gap with TAH. Any profit I had on Wednesday was gone by Thursday. Now out.

Hi, what do you think about the likelihood of unwinding of some positions on account of latest earnings reports and the outlook being quite uncertain for now with TAH? Is there great potential for shorts on this market or does the stock sit to reflect all this already? Interested in your opinions, it seems to have several important factors against it at the moment...
earnings down.

- outlook uncertain
- margins reduced
- government regulation problems, upcoming license costs.

Interested in thoughts.

[pixel]

Call me crazy, reckless, catcher of falling knives ... but I've placed a buy order where I thought support might be sitting. Just got filled at $6.67.
Next Tuesday, August 10th, TAH will go ex 25cFF dividend. That'll possibly cause it to drop even lower, but usually, dividends are quickly regained and forgotten. RBS Morgans, while lowering their target to $8.09, still seem to be quite Bullish on TAH - especially considering the high yield. Even 55c annual dividend, grossed up to 79c, beats term deposit rates by a mile.

38253

[skc]

Call me crazy, reckless, catcher of falling knives ... but I've placed a buy order where I thought support might be sitting. Just got filled at $6.67.
Next Tuesday, August 10th, TAH will go ex 25cFF dividend. That'll possibly cause it to drop even lower, but usually, dividends are quickly regained and forgotten. RBS Morgans, while lowering their target to $8.09, still seem to be quite Bullish on TAH - especially considering the high yield. Even 55c annual dividend, grossed up to 79c, beats term deposit rates by a mile.

38253

I like fib level retracement / reversal trades but not so much when the fall was swift and caused by fundamental news.

On the dividend play - sometimes buying in after (say 1 week) the dividend is paid might actually get you in at a cheaper price. That has been the case with most of the recent utilities (APA, DUE etc) going ex-div.

On the positive side, TAH is probably still considered a true bluechip with good yield + potential takeover target by some.

Good luck with the trade.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hi, what do you think about the likelihood of unwinding of some positions on account of latest earnings reports and the outlook being quite uncertain for now with TAH? Is there great potential for shorts on this market or does the stock sit to reflect all this already? Interested in your opinions, it seems to have several important factors against it at the moment...
earnings down.

- outlook uncertain
- margins reduced
- government regulation problems, upcoming license costs.

Interested in thoughts.
mr. jeff, I have no idea. The gap open destroyed my original intentions.
I'll be watching the technicals.

[noie]

Gambling giant Tabcorp (TAH.AX: Quote) has taken steps to placate the concerns of its key shareholders by announcing a plan to separate its casino and wagering businesses. Tabcorp chief executive Elmer Funke Kupper on Monday said the board had been considering the split for more than two years. Tabcorp's casino business will be split from its wagering, gaming and Keno businesses, which will continue trading as Tabcorp Holdings. Page 1.


http://www.finnewsnetwork.com.au/archives/finance_news_network16041.html

[Tyler Durden]

Does anyone know if there are plans for dividends given that they will be spending hundreds of millions on renovations?

Also, what's everyone's opinion on a fair SP of TAH after it spins off the casinos?

[Tyler Durden]

No one watching this? For every TAH share you own, you'll get one share in Echo Entertainment (the casinos after the de-merger), probably why the SP has been rising steadily recently.

[skc]

No one watching this? For every TAH share you own, you'll get one share in Echo Entertainment (the casinos after the de-merger), probably why the SP has been rising steadily recently.

After the demerger the share price of TAH will drop by that amount (all else being equal), although the market usually mark up the demerged companies.

Look at Fosters yesterday for example.

[Tyler Durden]

After the demerger the share price of TAH will drop by that amount (all else being equal), although the market usually mark up the demerged companies.

Look at Fosters yesterday for example.

Yes but still seems like a good deal. Just sell the TAH shares immediately after the cutoff date if you don't want long term.

[rick62]

Yes but still seems like a good deal. Just sell the TAH shares immediately after the cutoff date if you don't want long term.

When is that cut-off date please TD? I hold TAH but have been slack following this deal...

Thanks

Rick

[skc]

When is that cut-off date please TD? I hold TAH but have been slack following this deal...

Thanks

Rick

EGM on 1 June so separate listing won't be far off that I think.

[Tyler Durden]

When is that cut-off date please TD? I hold TAH but have been slack following this deal...

Thanks

Rick

10 June 2011 :)

[rick62]

10 June 2011 :)

Thanks TD. given that the demerger has already been announced why would the TAH share price go down? Wouldn't the demerger influence already be factored in?

Someone told me, for what it's worth, that the Stock Radar newsletter considers TAH good value.

Rick

[Tyler Durden]

Thanks TD. given that the demerger has already been announced why would the TAH share price go down? Wouldn't the demerger influence already be factored in?

Someone told me, for what it's worth, that the Stock Radar newsletter considers TAH good value.

Rick

The way I see it, people want it on 10 June 2011 so that they can get the Echo shares - after that they'll dump it. The basic of this premise is that Tabcorp (post-demerger) + Echo > Current Tabcorp.

[LifeChoices]

Getting a hammering this morning - 54% down.

[brianwh]

Why!!!!

[rick62]

Getting a hammering this morning - 54% down.

Interesting.. But how can Echo [EGP] shares be listed as trading today when holding statements for eligible shareholders are not issued until June 20?

Thanks

Rick

[rick62]

Why!!!!

It is the demerger Brian - Look at the TAH anouncement of April 15.

[snowking]

Interesting.. But how can Echo [EGP] shares be listed as trading today when holding statements for eligible shareholders are not issued until June 20?

Thanks

Rick


it is trading on a deferred settlement basis by the looks of things

[kingkev]

SP heading South big time..............is this an overreaction?

[rick62]

it is trading on a deferred settlement basis by the looks of things

Presently TAH is $3.40 and EGP is $4.47. Total = $7.87

TAH closed Friday at $7.72.

But who is trading EGP and how? I certainly can't access the EGP shares I will have...?

Anyone know the answer please?

Rick

[Tyler Durden]

Presently TAH is $3.40 and EGP is $4.47. Total = $7.87

TAH closed Friday at $7.72.

But who is trading EGP and how? I certainly can't access the EGP shares I will have...?

Anyone know the answer please?

Rick

EGP is available for trade on a deferred settlement basis. It's just like any other stock, but you pay on the 24th. The shares you will have will be registered on 20/6/11.

[Tyler Durden]

Anyone in the DRP? Dividends were paid yesterday but according to comsec, I haven't been allocated my shares yet :confused:

[redcorvetteguy]

What is the first rule of fight club?

[redcorvetteguy]

Does anyone know why TAH share price dropped so much during this year?

[Tyler Durden]

What is the first rule of fight club?

Never gamble at the casino.


Does anyone know why TAH share price dropped so much during this year?

TAH had a demerger, spinning off its casino businesses, which is now Echo (ASX: EGP). If you add TAH and EGP share prices, it will roughly equate to TAH's share price before the demerger. If you held TAH prior to the demerger, you would've received an equal amount of shares in EGP.