AUD

[money tree]

AUD daily trendline resistance @ 8041

hit that today & bounced off.

trendline support is 7750 on daily.

Im shorter than a dwarf with no legs :cool:

[BSD]

If Aussie interest rates go-up next RBA meeting you may have a new ass to match your new legs!

What currency are you short against ?

USD, EUR, JPY?

Purely on a chart or do you have some actual reasoning?

[money tree]

Well since AUDUSD is the only pair currently priced around 8041, it should be self explanatory. :banghead:

As I said, the chart is the reason.

Im sure the long term target is 82 or so, but you would have to be brave to say AUD will never see sub 80 again.....

[BSD]

I should add I have no view!

Currency prediction (particularly in the short term) is voodoo in my view and impossible to predict.

[money tree]

impossible eh?

well, do a bit of research. I have a 100% success rate on my forex calls posted here. voodoo indeed :rolleyes:

[BSD]

impossible eh?

well, do a bit of research. I have a 100% success rate on my forex calls posted here. voodoo indeed :rolleyes:

You shouldnt be posting on here then pal; you should be on a 120ft yacht in the Bahamas trading my money.

Why don't you work for a hedge fund with your amazing abilities?

2% and 20% baby- think of the cashflow stemming from a hot hand of 100% correct calls on the AUDUSD.

Send me your trading history of accurately 'picking the currency' - do it for another 50 calls and I will send you millions of dollars to manage on behalf of my clients and myself.

A PM will be fine.

Thanks

[surfingman]

You shouldnt be posting on here then pal; you should be on a 120ft yacht in the Bahamas trading my money.

Why don't you work for a hedge fund with your amazing abilities?

2% and 20% baby- think of the cashflow stemming from a hot hand of 100% correct calls on the AUDUSD

Send me your trading history of accurately 'picking the currency' - do it for another 50 calls and I will send you millions of dollars to manage on behalf of my clients and myself

A PM will be fine.

Thanks
:cool:

[canaussieuck]

I should add I have no view!

Currency prediction (particularly in the short term) is voodoo in my view and impossible to predict.

C'mon BSD, what are your experiences with this and why do you say that?

Cheers,

[Dr Doom]

AUD daily trendline resistance @ 8041

hit that today & bounced off.

trendline support is 7750 on daily.

Im shorter than a dwarf with no legs :cool:

MT, what's your shorting range? It's currently 8015, so what price would you not go short ie missed opportunity? Do you have a close out figure?

[Naif]

i do agree with you money tree..
audusd is bearish ( correction ) for the short term..
i think it`s time now for USD to show some strength against all currencies...
i think Bernanke got some important words for USD ..

lets see what will happen..

cheers

[BSD]

C'mon BSD, what are your experiences with this and why do you say that?

Cheers,

Predicting the earnings of BHP requires a 'guess' of about 25 inputs - a BHP analyst has a reasonable chance of being right on an earnings forecast

Predicting the sentiment guiding the PE applicable to BHP is pure guestimation - being an equity trader (guesser) is therefore hard.


Predicting the forces applicable to a currency requires a 'guess' of about 1000 real variables (many countries, many relationships) and then an equally impossible 'guess' of sentiment.

Punting the AUD for a number of years I quickly worked out that equities and bonds were far easier than currencies - let alone horses and football.

Most currency analysts will tell you they are essentially BS merchants that offer clients 'stories' and not 'predictions'.

Name three well-known currency analysts....

Warren Buffett and about a million goldbugs/USD doomsayers have shot their cocks-off over the last five years despite excellent fundamental reasoning

Anyone who claims anywhere near 100% accuracy from calls on currency can happily send me their numbers by PM and I will gladly contact them regarding an equity injection

I can give you 'my story' on the AUDUSD in the next month but it is probably as relevant as my cabby's or my ironing lady's view on the AUDUSD

My current view is that relative interest rates are the greatest driver of currencies - despite relative risks (previously represented by CADs, trade deficits, equity flows, GDP etc) - hence my view that if the RBA raise rates the AUD will rocket, but who can call that accurately in the short term?

[canaussieuck]

Predicting the earnings of BHP requires a 'guess' of about 25 inputs - a BHP analyst has a reasonable chance of being right on an earnings forecast

Predicting the sentiment guiding the PE applicable to BHP is pure guestimation - being an equity trader (guesser) is therefore hard.


Predicting the forces applicable to a currency requires a 'guess' of about 1000 real variables (many countries, many relationships) and then an equally impossible 'guess' of sentiment.

Punting the AUD for a number of years I quickly worked out that equities and bonds were far easier than currencies - let alone horses and football.

Most currency analysts will tell you they are essentially BS merchants that offer clients 'stories' and not 'predictions'.

Name three well-known currency analysts....

Warren Buffett and about a million goldbugs/USD doomsayers have shot their cocks-off over the last five years despite excellent fundamental reasoning

Anyone who claims anywhere near 100% accuracy from calls on currency can happily send me their numbers by PM and I will gladly contact them regarding an equity injection

I can give you 'my story' on the AUDUSD in the next month but it is probably as relevant as my cabby's or my ironing lady's view on the AUDUSD

My current view is that relative interest rates are the greatest driver of currencies - despite relative risks (previously represented by CADs, trade deficits, equity flows, GDP etc) - hence my view that if the RBA raise rates the AUD will rocket, but who can call that accurately in the short term?

Ever watch a tick chart? Uncanny how it bounces off those trend lines!

Cheers,

[BSD]

Ever watch a tick chart? Uncanny how it bounces off those trend lines!

Cheers,

Yeah - sack the thousands of analysts, traders and central bankers.

Replace them with chartists focussed on 'tick charts'.

Send me the results and I will invest.


You guys aren't Robinson Crusoe here.

[Naif]

Yeah - sack the thousands of analysts, traders and central bankers.

Replace them with chartists focussed on 'tick charts'.

Send me the results and I will invest.


You guys aren't Robinson Crusoe here.

BSD we are here to share analysis and i hope you will share us ur insights.. :)

I agree with you that intrest rates playing important rules these days and all the reports say that the FED going to leave the intrest rate constant but they say that Bernanke will mention about the real estates and that would mean to traders that the fed soon will decrease the intrest rate, but from my experince during the last years i found that they always (greenspan)try to mention some positiove words to save the american dollar when its getting weaker. In the last two weeks dollar were gettin weaker and it hitted 8041 AUDUSD and 1.3338 EURUSD and that tells me that commercials and large speculators want to close their long positions and short for a correction for at least 250 pips for eurusd and maybe 100 - 150 for AUDUSD..

[wayneL]

AUD hitting new highs after the FOMC announcement. Wait till the RBA raises.

Parity by next year anyone?

[wayneL]

Just touched 80.8

Can we get a big number move (1c) like the good old days?

[money tree]

well its now broken out on the daily, alas I was wrong.

we may be in a new era :eek7:

[wayneL]

well its now broken out on the daily, alas I was wrong.

we may be in a new era :eek7:

I think it's more to do with the USD being FUBAR.

AUD is not looking as flash against EUR GBP et al

[money tree]

eur gbp nzd et al are irrelevant.

relationship between AUD & USD in question.

the chart has spoken.

it matters not whether AUD is strong or USD is weak as the cause.

AUDUSD just became untradeable. it may take months for a new pattern to emerge.

trading off daily trendlines is a high probability trade, but not foolproof.

[wayneL]

USDX FWIW (It told a different story)

[nizar]

AUD hitting new highs after the FOMC announcement. Wait till the RBA raises.

Parity by next year anyone?

Wayne,

Dont u think maybe a rate rise by RBA is abit factored in?
Custom House (the people we deal with) think so.

[canaussieuck]

AUD daily trendline resistance @ 8041

hit that today & bounced off.

trendline support is 7750 on daily.

Im shorter than a dwarf with no legs :cool:

Curious how this played out for you MT, not looking to criticise but genuinly interested. Have had the chart up on screen all day.

Cheers,

[money tree]

still short, position wasnt too large but still a tad painful.

chart looks toppy now but what do I know :banghead:

I didnt bother setting a stop since aud was heading down when I went to bed. But had I done it anyway, the slippage may have killed me since it was such a quick move.

I dont mind holding for a while.

RBA unlikely to raise (though a rise is priced in) because:

- inflation is low
- stronger dollar hurts exporters more
- trade deficit doesnt need help to grow
- election year

[Smurf1976]

Wayne,

Dont u think maybe a rate rise by RBA is abit factored in?
Custom House (the people we deal with) think so.
I'm not Wayne but I note that the markets do seem to be pricing in a 25 basis point rise by the RBA soon and have moved in that direction quite a bit in the past few days.

[wayneL]

Wayne,

Dont u think maybe a rate rise by RBA is abit factored in?
Custom House (the people we deal with) think so.
Well, a hold by FOMC was factored in... didn't stop a reaction on announcement.

[ducati916]

eur gbp nzd et al are irrelevant.

relationship between AUD & USD in question.

the chart has spoken.

it matters not whether AUD is strong or USD is weak as the cause.


What nonsense. All currencies are *relative* based on their fundamentals, thus an arbitrage will be set up if the relationships are violated through any of the currencies moving from relative parity.

Actually I agree with old BSD here, currencies are a very dangerous game for retail traders, the variables are just too many to realistically keep track of.
I guess you won't be seeing his money.

jog on
d998

[>Apocalypto<]

impossible eh?

well, do a bit of research. I have a 100% success rate on my forex calls posted here. voodoo indeed :rolleyes:

100% wake up man you're dreaming :D

so the other 99 you dont post huh ha ha ha

r u worth 1 billion dollars yet? :D

[>Apocalypto<]

What nonsense. All currencies are *relative* based on their fundamentals, thus an arbitrage will be set up if the relationships are violated through any of the currencies moving from relative parity.

Actually I agree with old BSD here, currencies are a very dangerous game for retail traders, the variables are just too many to realistically keep track of.
I guess you won't be seeing his money.

jog on
d998

Very much agree that is why I don't touch FOREX too many unseen fundamentals can change the chart quicker than you can log in!

[wayneL]

I don't know whether this is the right thread for this, but as FOMC does affect currencies...:


http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/2007/03/near-panic-at-fed.html

Mish's FOMC Announcement Translation

We are unanimously scared half to death by the implosion in housing, defaults and foreclosures. Our biggest fear is a recession. A jobs slowdown would worsen that situation dramatically.

We are also somewhat concerned by rising food prices but those prices are soaring primarily because of Bush administration policy handouts to farmers and the ethanol industry. Economic policy can not really cure problems caused by poor administrative decisions. It would be a mistake to try.

Because of blatantly bad policy decisions by us, notably Greenspan's praise of subprime lenders, promotion of ARMs at the exact worst time for the consumer, support of toxic loans, and most importantly our previous decision to slash interest rates to 1%, we created the current property bubble. We now admit we did that on purpose. We just never expected the bubble to get this out of hand. We created the housing bubble on purpose to bail out banks that were at risk due to poor loans made to the dotcom industry. Now to bail out the housing industry we feel compelled move to a more neutral stance.

With consumer debt levels where they are, we are going to do everything in our power to keep asset prices high. If we could, we would even reinflate the housing bubble. But that gig is up unfortunately and with it any real hope for jobs expansion.

Now is not the time for a recession. We are in this fix because there is never a time for a recession. We hope to forestall recessions forever because if we can't all hell will break loose on the downside.

[wayneL]

:D

http://goldseek.com/news/RickAckerman/2007/Helicopter%20Ben.jpg

[Kauri]

I don't know whether this is the right thread for this, but as FOMC does affect currencies...:

Love the way that it is not what is said during the address but the interpretation of words and phrases used, the tone, and what is hidden but implied betwen the lines.. :) I dread the day that Bernanke inadvertantely breaks wind mid-speech, the resultant crash would make 29 look totally insignificant..

[wayneL]

:D

http://www.wave2capital.com/kitco/hang_in.jpg

[wayneL]

Love the way that it is not what is said during the address but the interpretation of words and phrases used, the tone, and what is hidden but implied betwen the lines.. :) I dread the day that Bernanke inadvertantely breaks wind mid-speech, the resultant crash would make 29 look totally insignificant..
Thanks Kauri! I can now no longer get the image of that man farting out of my mind LOL

http://static.flickr.com/35/103148566_5b1206652b.jpg

[wayneL]

Barry Ritholtz (http://feeds.feedburner.com/~r/TheBigPicture/~3/103387568/fed_statement_r.html) offers up a more truthful version of the FOMC statement.


Of course, they can't say what they really think. The Fed knows how important confidence is, and they do not want to do anything to discourage consumer sentiment or spook the psychology of the markets.

If they were unconcerned with those issues, the statement might look more like this:


"The Federal Open Market Committee decided today to keep its target for the federal funds rate at 5-1/4 percent.

Recent indicators have been much worse than what we were hoping for: Housing is a bigger mess than we anticipated; Business Capex is heading south, as are durable goods. Retail sales have been punk for 3 months running, (and what' with those excuses from the retailers? Too hot! Too cold! Lunar eclipse!) Don't even ask about the Automakers. We expect the economy is likely to continue to soften until it slips to about a 1.5% GDP.

Even worse, recent readings on inflation have been elevated. We were hoping that inflation pressures would moderate as the economy stabilized, but no such luck.

In these circumstances, the Committee's predominant policy concern is that we have painted ourselves into a corner, and we are running out of options. On the one hand, Inflation remains an ongoing concern, as medical costs, food, and energy remain problematic. On the other hand, it is apparent that growth is cooling rapidly. Housing has flipped from a net positive for consumers and job seekers to a net negative.

All told, we are running out of options until one or the other of these gets much much worse. Future policy adjustments, therefore, will depend on the evolution of the outlook for both inflation and economic growth, as implied by incoming information. As noted above, if GDP slips below 1.5%, we will be shifting our bias towards easing. Appreciably worse that 1.5%, and we will have to act on rates to prevent a recession -- inflation be damned.

On a final note, the FOMC has taken up a collection, and as a retirement present, we are sending former Chairman Alan Greenspan to a lovely spa on Fiji Island for the foreseeable future. Since there are no satellite feeds, internet connections or any off island communications at all, the CHairman can thank us when he returns -- preferably, around December 2008.

Don't hold your breath waiting for that dose of reality . . .

[money tree]

How amusing.

Those who either failed as a forex trader or who lack the balls to even try it are preaching about how silly the rest of us are.

Its very easy to shut your mouth when someone is making good calls then stand up and shout "haha idiot" when they make a bad call. Easier still to lack the courage to post your own calls.

Forex trading wipes the floor with equities. I've posted why many times. ignorance is bliss I guess.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

How amusing.

Those who either failed as a forex trader or who lack the balls to even try it are preaching about how silly the rest of us are.

Its very easy to shut your mouth when someone is making good calls then stand up and shout "haha idiot" when they make a bad call. Easier still to lack the courage to post your own calls.

Forex trading wipes the floor with equities. I've posted why many times. ignorance is bliss I guess.

I agree,
I am sick of CFD providers not allowing shorts or GSL's on certain stocks. Forex is different.

[ducati916]

How amusing.

Those who either failed as a forex trader or who lack the balls to even try it are preaching about how silly the rest of us are.

Its very easy to shut your mouth when someone is making good calls then stand up and shout "haha idiot" when they make a bad call. Easier still to lack the courage to post your own calls.

Forex trading wipes the floor with equities. I've posted why many times. ignorance is bliss I guess.

Nonsense.
It is simply being pointed out that you simply don't understand the relationships and technicalities of the market you trade.

Others do not trade it because they understand the inherent difficulties of the Fx market.

jog on
d998

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Others do not trade it because they understand the inherent difficulties of the Fx market.

jog on
d998

Duc,

Would you care to list the inherent difficulties for me please? :)

Snake

[money tree]

Nonsense.
It is simply being pointed out that you simply don't understand the relationships and technicalities of the market you trade.

Others do not trade it because they understand the inherent difficulties of the Fx market.

jog on
d998

This is an arrogant and condescending assumption.

I scored a "high distinction" in my Securities Institute Economics exam. So Im well aware of what drives these markets, which is why I have been able to make so many great calls. Im not sure what qualifies a "doorman" as an expert, perhaps you could enlighten us?

If you dont understand forex then leave it for those who do. This forum is to teach people about forex, and we dont need clowns whining "ooh its too hard"

Do us all a favour and research my past posts on forex eh?

success is the best revenge :D

[money tree]

double top on 30 min chart, 8090

any INTELLIGENT thoughts?

[>Apocalypto<]

double top on 30 min chart, 8090

any INTELLIGENT thoughts?

Money tree

Well done on the HD

I have no idea about Forex but all I can say is whatever way your trading is working then great keep it up and dont bother arguing cuz why argure if your living the fruits of your labour!

But only thing really made me laugh was when you posted I am 100% right on all my direction posts! Then couple posts down you said o I made a mistake lol that kind of screws your credibility!

Making such wild calls as Forex wipes the floor with shares is a good one how can you say that right now I think this bull market would have made alot of share traders a lot my more in the last four years then FOREX. But most likely I bet I am wrong cuz it all comes down to the trader!

I know for a fact some very smart traders have made a killing off the ASX in the last 4 years, I am talking retirement stuff! Lots of zeros.

Happy trading Brother :)

[ducati916]

This is an arrogant and condescending assumption.

I scored a "high distinction" in my Securities Institute Economics exam. So Im well aware of what drives these markets, which is why I have been able to make so many great calls. Im not sure what qualifies a "doorman" as an expert, perhaps you could enlighten us?

If you dont understand forex then leave it for those who do. This forum is to teach people about forex, and we dont need clowns whining "ooh its too hard"

Do us all a favour and research my past posts on forex eh?

success is the best revenge :D

Obviously you haven't got a clue my friend, the evidence resides within your own post viz.


eur gbp nzd et al are irrelevant.
relationship between AUD & USD in question.

As previously detailed, due to arbitrage, other currencies on a relative basis are very important. That you are either unaware, or perversely ignorant simply highlights how little you understand.

Based on the above, I think I can probably pass on researching any further nonsense from you.

jog on
d998

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Duc,

Would you care to list the inherent difficulties for me please? :)

Snake

Duc,
When you are done cutting Money tree up maybe you could answer the question.

[money tree]

Its ok snake, he is a little busy opening doors for people.

Wasnt there an old cliche about taking advice from busboys/doormen/shoeshine boys? ;)

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Its ok snake, he is a little busy opening doors for people.

Wasnt there an old cliche about taking advice from busboys/doormen/shoeshine boys? ;)

Moneytree,
I was interested to see what the clown had to say. Clearly he is a clown. Etablished on his own behalf. Sorting the real from the bogus.
Happy trading :)

[>Apocalypto<]

Its ok snake, he is a little busy opening doors for people.

Wasnt there an old cliche about taking advice from busboys/doormen/shoeshine boys? ;)

ha ha ha

Yeh there is and it's do the opposite!

But I think this getting way to harsh!

[money tree]

As previously detailed, due to arbitrage, other currencies on a relative basis are very important. That you are either unaware, or perversely ignorant simply highlights how little you understand.


Golly gosh, all technical analysts are perversely ignorant? We CHOOSE to ignore the NOISE of the market. Ignorance is bliss :banghead:

You CANNOT as a trader, reasonably be expected to absorb and analyse ALL data past, present & future while also abiding by the laws of technical analysis. Regardless of whether its equities or FX or commodities et al. Either you have a mechanical system or a discretionary one. I use mechanical rules for entries & exits, however I sometimes predict where the market will move based on my knowledge of economics.

PRICE ACTION IS GOD

It appears it is YOU who is perversely ignorant.


People need to simplify their trading analysis and just look at the price action, it will make much more sense than trying to think too much.....

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=137068#post137068

Regards,
Frank Dilernia

Crikey, Frank said something that I can understand without a decryption device ;)

[wayneL]

AUD just blew through 81c on stinking US housing numbers.

[canaussieuck]

AUD just blew through 81c on stinking US housing numbers.

Just sitting on the high now, waiting......

[money tree]

guppy on cnbc this morn said 82 top or at worst 82.5

will reload there

[doctorj]

I guess it depends on your time from. Kahuna1 is someone who's commentary I've come to like. Whilst I don't agree with all of it, he makes a lot of good points in this post.


this market .... 2 weeks ago we were all having kittens and the daily moves looked like a child playing with a crayon ..... and from the depths or depression, oh no its the end of the world we go to the other extreme.

Obviously the lows and supports are not even a question and yep they held. Now its the top and the 5950 level took them a few times to get through but here we are going for the all time high. Just amazing.

Little surprised about this till I looked and my pet BHP with the buyback going off and super funds scrambling to buy the stock they sold into the buyback certainly a large factor. Telstra back near its high as though it didn't have one political party announce they would fund fibre to the node Internet out of the future fund and it was good for it ?

No chance we are going to raise rates ? Even when the RBA tells up we are leaning that way ? .... and even more amusing is my long held belief the Ozzie over the next couple of years goes up up up and breaks the 1990 is highs of 90 cents and there isn't a thing we can do. So lets raise rates today and drop them in 9 months and 87 cent ozzie ?

Not to be a downer, certainly it was clear we were going to break the 5925-50 resistance on the third attempt on the ASX 200. Next level is the all time high 6,052 ish but personally sceptical of the quality of this rally .... yes I love BHP longer term and some of the other exporters but remain concerned about the currency as the balancing factor in the equation. So with the Ozzie at 81 cents not seen since 1996 ... and the high then 82 cents
or the high in 1990 when we had " the recession we had to have" from Mr keating and it hit 84 cents .... it remains a concern to me at least on the exporting side longer term.

The big cash-flows of the export expansion boom are yet to hit and not till 2008 do we see the larger ones come on line and from then its a steady flow which will hit our current account. After hitting a negative 50 billion per annum and it all added to our foreign debt as we balance our external accounts I suspect in 2010-11 us to have a balanced account and from there it to turn into the black and us pay off our debt.

Of course this depends on two things and one view in some ways contradicts the other.

Commodity prices remain firm as time goes on, China and its expansion is the large factor in this accounting for 66% of the estimated expansion in demand for iron ore out to 2011.
This expansion in demand globally means it will need the Iron ore export market to grow by 60% by then as a percentage of what Australia exports right now its 100% growth.
Every other commodity is tied into this in one shape or another and clearly China with 10.7% growth right now and much higher internal numbers like retail sales up 18% ect ect ... I have very few qualms about it keeping going and even if it moderates as already expected to 8% growth the picture will remain 100% unchanged. I am frankly not even sure they can slow it to 8% so the projected demand numbers worked on that assumption are in fact if anything too low.

Iron ore is the key along with China. Certainly some metals may and I mean may come off as supply comes on line but with the demands on the export market which is only less than 50% of the global supply in most cases .... its needing to keep up with a growth rate of 15% per annum which certainly looks set for the next 4 years if not the next 10 years.

Having looked at various estimates from economists over the weekend, we have at one end the totally bizarre ones from Abare which is the government forecaster who has been the worst caller ever, and its still going for the prize. ABARE basically estimates across the board a 30% fall in commodity prices out to 2011-12. Just amazing and idiotic on the main.
Most market economists all sitting one way as well but the 15-20% range for the same time period seems to be the call. Me I do see some falls with ones which have flown on very tight supply and as some more supply comes on line yes they will come back but overall I am not even sure they are even going to come off. At worst as a basket I suspect only slightly.

Thing for me its just like China. The bears are talking and have already factored Chinese growth slowing to 8% by 2008 , and even using these numbers the global steel production is estimated to go up a whopping 21% by 2011. Thats the planet as a whole !! Lets just say they are correct about China and it does slow somewhat .... the outlook for steel is based already on these numbers. I remain less than convinced it even happens but its an aside.

A 21% growth in production and conversely the growth in various other demand for metals is supposed to remain at half those rates according to various papers I read. Uniformly they agree on iron ore and steel .... just ask yourself what its used for and what will it be used for ? With 100 million new Chinese cars on the road ... I always thought they each had 40lbs of copper wiring in them, new construction wont they need copper wiring ? To make the steels I thought the ingredients were Iron ore, coking coal, zinc, Nickel and various other speciality metals like molly. So when I see say iron ore demand going up by 21% and copper projected demand going up by 6% or Nickel by 10% it just makes me wonder. wonder what the new cars will run on because certainly the oil demand numbers don't seem to reflect it.

Basically the basket is all tied together. Whilst copper not used in steel manufacture or oil, its the end products that will be using it.

Everyone agrees Iron ore demand will go this way, and remain firm yet when I look at projections for demand even in products used directly in steel manufacture like coking coal or nickel they seem shall we say interesting. Coking coal with new PCI ... pulverized coal injection methods into the blast furnace will require less of the product than before but still the overall numbers do not add up at all. One cannot make steel without coking coal, its impossible frankly.

So with all this in mind I cant see the prices going backwards too far. That's in USD.

Went though our own cash-flows and projects coming on line with this before ..... a few posts ago. For Australia a lot depends on the LNG projects post 2011 coming on line how black our surplus looks out there. When does Browse from WPL or Sunrise WPL or Scarbourough Exxon/BHP or Gorgon Chevron/Exxon/Shell finally become producers ?
The shameful record of the operators all foreign controlled mind you is absurd.
Gorgon the largest development projects with enough oil equivalent was discovered in 1981 and was planned to come on line in 2003 ... that was the scheduled date in 1999. So 8years later Chevron is now talking 2017 .... 14 years later yet only 9 years has passed.
In the last 4 years the price on LNG has tripled ... and a new record just set at US$11- MBTU was set weeks ago.

Anyhow .... they will happen either way .... eventually and are all very long term projects with an average of 25 years of reserves on them.

Continued in next post...

[doctorj]

...continued from previous


The one thing and release valve I have felt for a long time has been the currency. Right now I read the paper and all they talk about is interest rates and that's why the ozzie was here. Two weeks ago at 78 cents not a single person interviewed was of the view it went up and all talking it being at or near the peak. Still the same.

I disagree and will spell it out .... and have been for some time on this thread. Our current account deficit which has been running at minus 50 billion per annum will correct by 2011 as long as commodity prices remain roughly where we are. The expansion projects already nearly completed and coming on line at a furious pace in 2008 and beyond will take care of this. Even last week BHP announced another expansion in its iron ore capacity, its well aware of the demand outlook and its a race to keep up with things. Whilst ignored and yawned at by most a 25 million ton capacity increase is around 1.7% addition to our total export side for the nation. That's including everything ..... in one stroke up goes the export side 1.7% and it already looks bloody rosy unless you are from ABARE and predict oil will be US$48 in 2012 or Zinc and Nickle will halve in price and virtually every other commodity will be a blanket 30% lower in 4 years.

Just ask yourself if demand goes up by 60% on the export side which by the way global commodity prices are set off, would you call a 30% fall in prices ? Remeber whilst gloabl steel production is only going up 21% the export side to supply it needs to expand at 3 times the rate. Personally its the most idiotic thing I have ever seen in my life. I am NOT suggesting we see massive further advances from levels right now, we I suspect have seen the bulk of the rises already with prices here and now .... but I cannot see what ABARE is calling and doubt even the market economists calls of 15-20%. Honestly think its like jumping in front of a freight train going 160 km an hour and going stop !!

Now here is the contradiction, unlike virtually all forecasters I see something else happening with the currency as we go forward. Being a naughty old FX boy from the 1980's and having an economics's degree I am well aware of the dogma taught in universities about forecasting future prices. In the case of FX whilst I spent 12 hours in the office and then doing it part time I was forced to parrot this view if I wanted to pass. It if anything was worse with the masters course this was drummed in parrot like even harder. The forward rate is where everyone expects the currency to be in the future. Its why one virtually without exception will never see an analyst calling higher prices because he bases his view off one thing which has nothing to do with the other.

In the case of any commodity its usually a 3 year average or for my mates at ABARE with their US$50- 2010 oil call its a 5 or 7 year average. Since oil futures are US$67- for 2010 delivery hence we see the idiotic call being 34% below where the actual forward market is trading. It may go there but calling copper at 84 cents verses a spot of US$3- right now and even a forward well above this ... you get the idea.

Some economist not like this but the lazy ones are and rarely will one ever see the price estimation being higher than the current price rather than lower. Its just not done.
Apologies to the very few decent forecasting economist's ... but there are few around.

With the currency same thing. Always and I mean always its lower than the current spot price when taken as a group with the exception of the really lazy ones who use 5 year or 7 year averages like ABARE. The reason is a very simple one. Australia having a net foreign debt for 35 odd years has needed to attract foreign capital to the country and as such has needed to have an interest rate higher than the US to attract it. As such our rates being higher than the US... the interest rate differential has always with a few short lived exceptions ... has meant one could buy AUD at a discount forward against the US.
As such economists either traditional or lazy ones where we sit now will always call the exchange rate looking forward lower. Right now the interest rate differential is 2% so our rates are 2% higher than the USD and as such we can buy Ozzie at a 2% discount looking forward for each and every year. Just roughly if the spot rate is 80 cents the one year exchange rate would be 160 points lower at 7840 the two year at 7680 and so on.

This obviously has zero to do with anything. I am sure some will talk about cash and carry or some such stuff but it only becomes really attractive at higher differentials and sometimes as we saw the differential at 5% or MORE since float even that didn't stop the slide.

So here we are with a seemingly low differential on historic standards since float. Its certainly been lower but the average I suspect is somewhat higher.

My view on the currency based on commodity exports and projects coming on line has exports by volume out to 2011 growing by 31%. Not much can topple this. As such demands to attract capital which are at a rate of 50 billion per annum will fall to near zero by then. On a pure cash-flow basis the costs incurred in AUD and income mainly in USD also a factor. Not one hope in hell the ozzie goes down UNLESS China stops and commodity prices moderate by 30% in the next 4 years. Do you really see this happening ? ABARE does ....

My own view of the world is the currency keeps going up and whilst I totally disagree with the prices in USD falling for commodities and especially with India basically charging a royalty on iron ore exports to protect domestic reserves this now appears even less likely as time goes on.

As such all the cash-flows are heading one way, and whilst the current short term focus is on an interest rate rise, the RBA is going to have problems from the opposite direction I suspect within 12 months. How the hell to stop the currency going up ? Commodity prices if they don't fall which I don't think is a very big call given Chinese demand for steel will account for 66% of the projected rises is worked out already on the Chinese economy at 8% in 2008 and 7% 2009 .... with the Olympics I am not even sure of this.

For me 90 cents is the first stop. I suspect late 2008 we are there.
I suspect the release valve as per normal will be the currency and a $1- exchange rate post 2010 is not out of the question and even a 1970's sort of $1.10.

So right now every economist I am sure when asked calls for lower commodity prices, a lower ozzie and higher interest rates for Australia.

Me thinking this out ... short term agree on rates but as the currency goes higher we will in effect be just like China but in reverse. China exporting very cheap products for the last 10 years and likely the next 10 has in effect being exporting deflation. Us as a large importer of finished goods with a rising currency will be importing deflation.

So the next few months the focus will be on rates going up, but in the meantime the fact is with the currency 5% higher than a few months ago price pressures are heading the other direction at 100 miles an hour. As time goes on .... just like China's thirst for Iron ore and everything associated directly and indirectly with it .... up will creep the ozzie.

Having worked the time-lines the big year is not 2007 but 2008 with a lot of the larger commodity exports coming fully on line then.

Its a one way street I feel.

As such another big call is that the interest rate differential we have been forced to pay over US rates will disappear by 2010 as the RBA is forced into a war against the currency rises eroding export income and the deflationary effect of every single import becoming even cheaper. Your car price will fall 15% if the ozzie is at 90 cents, our exporters will cry blue murder. Certainly the pegging of commodity producers at low P/E's because the view USD prices will moderate will turn out correct but for all the wrong reasons. USD commodity prices remain here but the AUD going up deadens the impact. Suppose the analysts 15% fall in AUD prices are correct but for totally the wrong reasons.

Anyhow ..... a few big calls

AUD at 90 cents late 2008

AUD possibly $1- and beyond 2011

AUD interest rates lowered below USD rates and the 30 plus year interest rate differential disappears by 2010.

We import deflation and ultra low overall inflation for the foreseeable future.

Not sure what to do with all this ... importers making massive profits as the currency creeps up and they do not pass it on ... or slowly. Large exporters already pegged at low P/E's on the view commodity prices fall so no real change there they have already been priced all be for the wrong reasons ......

Enuf rambling from me ...

good luck .... just a very long held view of things ... AUD higher ... AUD rates eventually very very much lower .... and stronger for longer on the commodity side.

Not sure what that does to asset prices but its not another boom despite lower rates.

[wayneL]

...continued from previous
A lot of good points there Doc.

I would not be surprised if we see parity, at least briefly, sometime in 2008.
fwiw

[canaussieuck]

Having a go at basic analysis on these waves....Can someone comment please?

[doctorj]

A lot of good points there Doc.

I would not be surprised if we see parity, at least briefly, sometime in 2008.
fwiw
Without doubt an excellent post - most of which I'm still fully absorbing.

The question is, aside from forex, how is this tradeable? Go long aussie retailers (DJS, HVN, WES) and be weary of exporters?

[>Apocalypto<]

guppy on cnbc this morn said 82 top or at worst 82.5

will reload there

Don't listen to guppy Money tree.

Listen to what you can see on the chart!

Mate I will tell u Tom Schoulen from YTE mag made a call with E wave that Brent crude would go to 80$ a while ago I was all excited but I did not enter cuz chart said no and guess what it went to under 60!

I never trust no one but myself!

[theasxgorilla]

The question is, aside from forex, how is this tradeable? Go long aussie retailers (DJS, HVN, WES) and be weary of exporters?

If the Aussie market weathers this little storm and goes on to make new highs, and starts to again outperform other markets I'd expect inflows of foreign investment. Any funds invested in an appreciating sharemarket will be supercharged through AUD appreciation. Contrast this with the US, for example, where your asset price gains are erroded by a falling USD.

[nizar]

AUD/USD making new highs by the hour :cool:

[nizar]

AUD/USD making new highs by the hour :cool:

17 year highs :D

[>Apocalypto<]

17 year highs :D


O its great!

Opened a long this morning. :D Also my first ever FX trade.

[canaussieuck]

O its great!

Opened a long this morning. :D Also my first ever FX trade.

Well done TI! Was that a two pip spread? Where did you open?

Cheers,

[>Apocalypto<]

Well done TI! Was that a two pip spread? Where did you open?

Cheers,


Hey canaussieuck,

Hope you had a nice Chinese easter and hope the Chinese easter bunny did not bring you any green duck egg's! :D

I got in at 8220 after I saw it break though the resistance, not the earliest entry but still, things still looking good as long as it stays on its trend.

Yeh it was on the 2 pip spread.

we will see what happens!

[>Apocalypto<]

Added again to my position things looking peachy!

[canaussieuck]

Added again to my position things looking peachy!

Can you throw up another chart with your entry's TI?

Cheers,

[nizar]

LOL do currencies have breathers or pullbacks??!
Thoroughly enjoying this :D

Well done T.I

[>Apocalypto<]

Nizar,

For sure buddy,
In fx you can see consolidation and small retracments.

I am following the trend and also second entry off the flag rectangle continuation that formed. looking to keep adding along the way!

Will stay with this till it breaks trend and with the real possibility of another rate hike it could keep going for a while.

I am also short on the EUR/AUD.

canaussieuck

Attached with buy arrows.

[>Apocalypto<]

Dollar looked like a short before but it has bounced of its trend again.

Opened another long

One question, if the eur/aud goes up will the aud/usd go down or am i seeing things?

[>Apocalypto<]

Moneytree were are you AUD is a short! :confused: :) (not trying to be smart!)

Have shorted the AUD today broke trend and is dropping nicely.

See my latest sell signal, that's my entry.

[nizar]

Very nice ascending triangle appearing on the hourly chart im looking at.

http://www.forexdirectory.net/aud.html

[>Apocalypto<]

Moneytree were are you AUD is a short! :confused: :) (not trying to be smart!)

Have shorted the AUD today broke trend and is dropping nicely.

See my latest sell signal, that's my entry.

Nizar

I agree it does, watching it as well

I took profit on the short and am now also looking to go long again.

Did not update with post and charts.

[Kauri]

Going by my E/W outlook of the Weekly skippy my trades in the shorter timeframes are now on the short side........

[Kauri]

Going by my E/W outlook of the Weekly skippy my trades in the shorter timeframes are now on the short side........

The daily short on the skippy is working so far, I guess the NFP tonight will determine where it goes now, have stop set at breakeven for the expected volatility.

[lesm]

It will be interesting to see how the AUD fairs tonight, certainly still looking like a short play at the moment.

[markrmau]

Just out of interest for long term fundamentals -

is the AUD a good massive short against the YEN?

With Australia not making a surplus in the last 5 years (with the minerals boom no less!!!!), and the winding back of the carry trade imminent on the YEN, surely shorting the AUD vs YEN is the best deal on the planet.

Anyone else????

[bvbfan]

Depends on your time frame, I think shorting around 100 might be a good area.
But paying 5.75% on the position isn't too attractive.

[Edwood]

possible resistance coming overhead - this is monthly mind....

http://img528.imageshack.us/img528/6262/aud070607pr9.gif

[Edwood]

and updated from a harmonical view - close to painting a bearish pattern

http://img2.freeimagehosting.net/uploads/65f95837fd.gif

[Uncle Festivus]

Any takers......again?
Or parity & beyond?

[>Apocalypto<]

Any takers......again?
Or parity & beyond?

UF,

I am watching the aussie like a hawk, screwed up a long entry the other day, now just waiting for a minor retrace or consolidation to renter.

[wayneL]

Any takers......again?
Or parity & beyond?


Parity by next year anyone?
I'm stick to my parity view... 'cept it might be this year.

[Uncle Festivus]

I've gone a spec short @8869 on the chance that there could be a short covering rally in the $USD from the oversold position below 81 & the near universal 'dollar is doomed' wall of worry. Commodities retreating at the moment, & gold down 2&#37;.


LONDON, July 25 (Reuters) - Copper prices fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday as labour dispute concerns eased, while lead and nickel slipped as the dollar strengthened. London Metal Exchange copper <MCU3> for three-months delivery was at $7,860/7,875 a tonne at 0937 GMT, down from Tuesday's close of $7,965.


Copper touched a 10-week high of $8,212 on Monday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar making metals cheaper for holders of other currencies, but prices were hit as the currency bounced back. "The stronger dollar is having a knock-on effect on the base slide we are seeing," an LME trader said.

[>Apocalypto<]

I've gone a spec short @8869 on the chance that there could be a short covering rally in the $USD from the oversold position below 81 & the near universal 'dollar is doomed' wall of worry. Commodities retreating at the moment, & gold down 2&#37;.


LONDON, July 25 (Reuters) - Copper prices fell more than 1 percent on Wednesday as labour dispute concerns eased, while lead and nickel slipped as the dollar strengthened. London Metal Exchange copper <MCU3> for three-months delivery was at $7,860/7,875 a tonne at 0937 GMT, down from Tuesday's close of $7,965.


Copper touched a 10-week high of $8,212 on Monday, buoyed by a weaker U.S. dollar making metals cheaper for holders of other currencies, but prices were hit as the currency bounced back. "The stronger dollar is having a knock-on effect on the base slide we are seeing," an LME trader said.

Nice to see your in the FX game UF,

Nice idea will watch with interest.

[Uncle Festivus]

Nice to see your in the FX game UF,

Nice idea will watch with interest.

Hi TI,
Finally jagged one for a change. It was a by product of some research on gold. Looks like a purely technical setup from oversold and short covering. I give it maybe another month to sort itself out then might re-test 80 again? Any projections along the timeline for this?
UF

[Kauri]

UF,
The counts are a tad dubious but this is the way I am trading the Skippy at the moment... not sure about the time projections...
Cheers
............Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi Kauri,

Welcome back,

After that sharp drop on the AUD either index related or not, I am back in the market on the long side, with 3 minis currently.

Bought as I saw it bounce on the support line plus it hit 50&#37; fib point and found some buying.

Also holding a short on the euro/gbp. :) :)

Holding till it stops me out on 2, or breaks trend on the third.

UF

Have you taken a long on it? I am not sure on time lines but I will be staying in and adding until the trend is over. I have a target of 88 cents but its still in the early stages. (dont quote me on the 88)

I will move my post back to the aussie here we go again thread after this.

[stormbringer]

I'm long, bought in at .85412, was looking good up until the last couple of hrs. I'm gonna sit tight and see what happens. Got my stops at .85800, which will have me slightly in the red. Overall though, 70% of my fx are in positive territory, and I've done ok with some of the major indices. Was a good day to long on most positions.

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi Kauri,

Welcome back,

After that sharp drop on the AUD either index related or not, I am back in the market on the long side, with 3 minis currently.

Bought as I saw it bounce on the support line plus it hit 50&#37; fib point and found some buying.

Also holding a short on the euro/gbp. :) :)

Holding till it stops me out on 2, or breaks trend on the third.

UF

Have you taken a long on it? I am not sure on time lines but I will be staying in and adding until the trend is over. I have a target of 88 cents but its still in the early stages. (dont quote me on the 88)

I will move my post back to the aussie here we go again thread after this.

Well I was cleaned out of two of my contracts last night. They were looking good as I went to bed.

O well thats the game! see what this next falls shows on the support side.

[Kauri]

Hi Trade_it,
I'm still on the short side, on the 60 and 240 min charts am looking for the 5th wave of the corrective a , not far off methinks, then may be time for a bullish b ???
Cheers
...........Kauri

[Kauri]

Have closed out my shorts and will watch and see if a W2 or B develops from here... seeing as the minor w5 has reached its minimum target area.

[Kauri]

If the minor Wc brings in the intermediate W2 orB there may be a short into the W3 or C,

[Kauri]

Just might be heading up to complete the minor Wc..W2 orB before moving down again.... if it does I'll be looking for a quick short on the following W3orC
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Sooner or later my Wc...W2orB.... will come in, maybe the RBA will push it up there for me, will then be looking for a short down to the W3orC which should also be the W4... starting to confuse myself now :eek7:
Cheers
........Kauri

[Kauri]

Well we got our Wc...W2orB on the skippy ... and am now short... has been a busy afternoon with the EURJPY also a short on a similar setup.. :) .. had the cable as a short setup also but wasn't 100% on that one so passed it up. :mad: ...
Cheers
..Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

Well we got our Wc...W2orB on the skippy ... and am now short... has been a busy afternoon with the EURJPY also a short on a similar setup.. :) .. had the cable as a short setup also but wasn't 100&#37; on that one so passed it up. :mad: ...
Cheers
..Kauri

Hi Kauri,

well well well.............

I opened a long on the AUD Wednesday night at 85.90 and it was all rosy till I looked at it at 5pm yesterday moved my stop up, thank god as I thought it looked like dropping back into the range, well it did not drop ito the range it did its best to smash thought it! was stoped with a minor profit. but jeez I was chased out of there faster then a mouse at a cat convention! ;)

[Kauri]

Hi Kauri,

well well well.............

I opened a long on the AUD Wednesday night at 85.90 and it was all rosy till I looked at it at 5pm yesterday moved my stop up, thank god as I thought it looked like dropping back into the range, well it did not drop ito the range it did its best to smash thought it! was stoped with a minor profit. but jeez I was chased out of there faster then a mouse at a cat convention! ;)

Hi TI,
I'm looking, at the moment, for a decline down to around the 82c. level..... if a bit of a pause eventuates around the current levels for both the Skippy and the EURJPY I will be looking to pyramid my shorts...
Cheers
..........Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi TI,
I'm looking, at the moment, for a decline down to around the 82c. level..... if a bit of a pause eventuates around the current levels for both the Skippy and the EURJPY I will be looking to pyramid my shorts...
Cheers
..........Kauri

Kauri,

As I saw this morning the trend and minor support was broken, with a very good possibility of further downside, I have taken a short on the AUD/USD entry @ 84.99.

Here's to the red side!

[>Apocalypto<]

Kauri,

As I saw this morning the trend and minor support was broken, with a very good possibility of further downside, I have taken a short on the AUD/USD entry @ 84.99.

Here's to the red side!

Closed my short friday night.

made two more short term short plays on the AUD saw the minor intraday rally looking for support or more down side.

Good Trading

[TradingAffinity]

Hi,...I have a limit buy in on AUD at 8378/8380, with stop at 8369...I thought we might have got down there in Friday night (8/10/07) Trading

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi,...I have a limit buy in on AUD at 8378/8380, with stop at 8369...I thought we might have got down there in Friday night (8/10/07) Trading

Hi TA,

The AUD and other FX crosses can really do the opposite. Its still plunging on the intraday but finding support with a minor rally. Your limit may get hit but fx loves to drop down in plunges and then it can retrace 50&#37; and find support in no time at all.

You still might get filled.

[TradingAffinity]

Yeah ...I was filled & we got a bounce which didnt held long ....but tight stop made damage minimal...8180 area looking like next best bet atm....but this thing is shapping up bigger than I first imagined.
Thanks for reply

[>Apocalypto<]

Yeah ...I was filled & we got a bounce which didnt held long ....but tight stop made damage minimal...8180 area looking like next best bet atm....but this thing is shapping up bigger than I first imagined.
Thanks for reply

no probs

Inflation rose in US so no rate cuts coming that is a bullish driver for the US$

can u believe it i was short last night on gut feel then i closed at loss to teach myself a lesson for trading with out due cause! did it drop!:D

I personally think the market has turned on the aud and it will make some more falls. I am waiting a on a consolidation to get long or short, on the lines watching and waiting for now!

[Kauri]

On the Weekly I have it as nearly in the W4 zone, on the daily it has just broken through the WA=WC area, and on the shorter term it looks like it is in the 3rd wave of WC, also to keep the E/W pattern valid it needs to hold above the W1 at around 80c, so on balance I think she has a little ways to go yet before possibly bottoming and turning.
Cheers
...Kauri

[waz]

It just fell below 0.7950 :eek:

which is weird coz i dont see much happening on the futures market

down 50c in about 5mins

any ideas? news?

[waz]

Am I the only one watching our dollar drop?

Its been gradually dropping since last thursday in an almost straight line.
Then this morning it drops from 0.8170 to 0.8000 in the space of an hour.
recovers a cent then again a 1 cent drop, then another 1.5 cent drop.
(these are just quick visual observations)

It has now dropped about 12% since its high a few weeks back.
which i think is too much to soon.

Is there such a thing as an unwinding of an unwinding carry trade??

The Au has now fallen to its lowest point since march. would i be right in saying that anyone who has been carry trading the Au since late march to now not made any money at all?

The Japanese would have been better off leaving their money in their own bank accounts.

[waz]

Further to this, the au/JPY has dropped about 17% since the end of July.

Now may be a good time to buy into listed Japanese property.

[wayneL]

Far canal!!!!

I normally watch Pound, Euro &Yen. Just looked at the Aussie!

OMG!

My parity argument just went pfffffffff!

[reece55]

Far canal!!!!

I normally watch Pound, Euro &Yen. Just looked at the Aussie!

OMG!

My parity argument just went pfffffffff!

OMG............ Hence why FX can be a tricky game to master......

Down to 79 cents, I think you are right in saying that the that parity equation is out the window........... We haven't been this low for about a half a year......

Commodities all down by 5%, high yield currencies being sold off - I wonder if it's the hedge funds (DUH!!!!)....

So funny, because on the way up, I know you Wayne and many others were talking about these very problems. Incredible how it comes to roost so quickly.

Cheers
Reece

[wayneL]

OMG............ Hence why FX can be a tricky game to master......

Down to 79 cents, I think you are right in saying that the that parity equation is out the window........... We haven't been this low for about a half a year......

Commodities all down by 5%, high yield currencies being sold off - I wonder if it's the hedge funds (DUH!!!!)....

So funny, because on the way up, I know you Wayne and many others were talking about these very problems. Incredible how it comes to roost so quickly.

Cheers
Reece
It's still unsettling to watch how fast things are unfolding, and it could get a lot worse very quickly.

I hope not, because it's very hard to manage ridiculous volatility.

Scary! :( and infuriating that "they" did not see this coming :mad:

[bvbfan]

Feb 89 AUD went from 88c to 75c over the space of the year after dropping from 88c to 80c in Feb

It will overshoot but the interest differentials will widen between AUD and USD, expect it will be back to 81c later this year if not higher.

http://fan.bvb.googlepages.com/AUD89.jpg

[professor_frink]

On the Weekly I have it as nearly in the W4 zone, on the daily it has just broken through the WA=WC area, and on the shorter term it looks like it is in the 3rd wave of WC, also to keep the E/W pattern valid it needs to hold above the W1 at around 80c, so on balance I think she has a little ways to go yet before possibly bottoming and turning.
Cheers
...Kauri

Hi kauri,

I'm assuming that yesterday's action has invalidated your count on the aussie. Being pretty uneducated on EW, but with a bit of an interest in it, I'd be interested to hear how you manage it now. Is it back to the drawing board with a new count taking in the latest price action, or are you going to just leave it alone for awhile and look elsewhere for a trade?

Cheers

[>Apocalypto<]

I got to say yesterday afternoon to night was some of the best intrady trading i have ever had on the AUD.

the EURO/AUD was moving up so fast that the 10$ spread would be chewed up on entry was crazy. in and out in and out on a two 2min buying in of the minor dips.

caught a few chunks as the AUD/USD as it went to -360 was a hell of a night.

never experienced such a fast market, I had trouble getting out as the price kept changing!

Glad I got a chance to experience that, was a true rush!

[Kauri]

Hi kauri,

I'm assuming that yesterday's action has invalidated your count on the aussie. Being pretty uneducated on EW, but with a bit of an interest in it, I'd be interested to hear how you manage it now. Is it back to the drawing board with a new count taking in the latest price action, or are you going to just leave it alone for awhile and look elsewhere for a trade?

Cheers

Hi Prof
The count I was following has been invalidated by strict E/W interpretation... although on FX I usually allow a W4 to overlap a W1 so long as it doesn't go too far in or close deep in the W1... this may be touch and go.. :confused: .. Have actually just closed out my shorts on the skippy as I am half expecting a bit of a rally from here.... although on the 60Min chart the punters look as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs at the moment.
Cheers
......Kauri

[professor_frink]

Hi Prof
The count I was following has been invalidated by strict E/W interpretation... although on FX I usually allow a W4 to overlap a W1 so long as it doesn't go too far in or close deep in the W1... this may be touch and go.. :confused: .. Have actually just closed out my shorts on the skippy as I am half expecting a bit of a rally from here.... although on the 60Min chart the punters look as nervous as a cat in a room full of rocking chairs at the moment.
Cheers
......Kauri

Cheers Kauri, wouldn't be surprised to see a bit of a rally here too- looks way overdone and unsustainable in the short term, but given the current volatility in markets around the globe, it could run pretty hard either way and I wouldn't be surprised.

[waz]

Reserve Bank active in foreign exchange market last night
Source: SYDNEY, Aug 17 AAP
Published: August 17 2007, 12:08AM

Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) governor Glenn Stevens says the central bank was active in the foreign exchange market last night amid volatile movements in the Australian dollar.

"During the overnight session we did a bit of dealing," Mr Stevens told a House of Representatives committee hearing in the Gold Coast.

"We don't typically signal about interventions for various reasons," he said.

"The general point is that on occasion, where market conditions are disorderly, we are prepared to intervene from time to time."

He said it was routine for central banks around the world to share information.

"It's quite a routine things to exchange info on what's happening," he said.

He said that while central banks would be sharing information with "more intensity at the moment than normal", there was not abnormal activity.

"There's isn't any kind of coordinated activity that I'm aware of that's going on at the moment between central banks," he said.

The Australian dollar opened lower today after sinking to a new five-month low overnight.

The domestic currency opened at at 79.08 US cents, below the 80 cent mark for the first time since March 20.

Overnight, it sank from a high of 80.45 US cents to a low of 78.20, the Australian dollar's worst level since March 14 when it fell to 78.03.

[>Apocalypto<]

Short on a couple again on the AUD/USD,

after seeing it fail to hold its eary gains.

76-75 target........ any takers?;)

[professor_frink]

Short on a couple again on the AUD/USD,

after seeing it fail to hold its eary gains.

76-75 target........ any takers?;)

bold move. Given how quickly and how far it's fallen, a countertrend move from here could be pretty severe.

[professor_frink]

Short on a couple again on the AUD/USD,

after seeing it fail to hold its eary gains.

76-75 target........ any takers?;)

you got that one pretty well right TI- it got down into the 76 area. Nice work. You still holding through the madness, or have you cut and run?

[reece55]

Just went long on AUD-USD - quick fifty pips, easiest money I ever made......

All the best guys, volatility is so high at the moment, gotta take profits when it's there - I only took 1 lot!!!! Still not bad for 15 minutes worth of fun.

Cheers

[professor_frink]

Just went long on AUD-USD - quick fifty pips, easiest money I ever made......

All the best guys, volatility is so high at the moment, gotta take profits when it's there - I only took 1 lot!!!! Still not bad for 15 minutes worth of fun.

Cheers

I'm thinking there might be a bit more in this one- that sell off recently looked way overdone to me. I'm looking for it to test 80.

[reece55]

I'm thinking there might be a bit more in this one- that sell off recently looked way overdone to me. I'm looking for it to test 80.

I agree with you prof, but I just don't have the never tonight, want to go to sleep shortly, so that was enough for me.......

All the best if you go in long, I would think that the 80 cent level at least should be tested....

Cheers

[professor_frink]

I agree with you prof, but I just don't have the never tonight, want to go to sleep shortly, so that was enough for me.......

All the best if you go in long, I would think that the 80 cent level at least should be tested....

Cheers

already long- missed the initial spike unfortunately, but have found what looks like a half decent entry off the 5 minute chart, and will look to let it go for as long as I can stay awake!!!

[>Apocalypto<]

you got that one pretty well right TI- it got down into the 76 area. Nice work. You still holding through the madness, or have you cut and run?

cheers mate,

closed my short around 5.30pm

went long on the EUR/USD and short on the USD/CAD, long AUD/USD. i was in 1 hour before the rate cut, that sure helped! :)

have taken profits now.

watching the AUD.....

also the USD/CAD is looking good a new uptrend may be in the works, the rate cut simply retraced it so far, I will be watching to see how far the US$ gets knocked down.

good trading to you and your long. I think you should be quite safe over night with it.

watch the yen on monday!

[reece55]

cheers mate,

closed my short around 5.30pm

went long on the EUR/USD and short on the USD/CAD, long AUD/USD. i was in 1 hour before the rate cut, that sure helped! :)

have taken profits now.

watching the AUD.....

also the USD/CAD is looking good a new uptrend may be in the works, the rate cut simply retraced it so far, I will be watching to see how far the US$ gets knocked down.

Superb trading Joe, good on you - exploiting the volatility to your advantage is the way to go. And boy, on the FX market at the moment, it's a field of gold (provided you get it right).

Cheers mate

[>Apocalypto<]

Superb trading Joe, good on you - exploiting the volatility to your advantage is the way to go. And boy, on the FX market at the moment, it's a field of gold (provided you get it right).

Cheers mate

Hi Reece how have u been?

don't worry I screwed a couple up today as well but the loses where only minor.

I also posted a recognition to u in MBL, u sure called it! Well done.

I was looking to hold abit longer on those trades but the rate cut really spiced things up tonight, that was a real shock.

I still think that will only slow things down, not fix anything.

The US$ looks good to me ATM I am watching the USD/CAD could be a nice one there if this weakness only proves to be a retracment.

take it easy Reece,

good trading to you........

[reece55]

Hi Reece how have u been?

don't worry I screwed a couple up today as well but the loses where only minor.

I also posted a recognition to u in MBL, u sure called it! Well done.

I was looking to hold abit longer on those trades but the rate cut really spiced things up tonight, that was a real shock.

I still think that will only slow things down, not fix anything.

The US$ looks good to me ATM I am watching the USD/CAD could be a nice one there if this weakness only proves to be a retracment.

take it easy Reece,

good trading to you........

Hey mate, I've been run off my feet with work at the moment, the reporting season is always busy for me, so took a break from trading - quite a good decision considering the moves in international markets.....

Yeah, I did reply in the MBL thread - it ain't over yet in my humble opinion....

I'm with you - the discount window is a temporary thing, there has been a fundamental swing in economics at the moment - I am generally looking for a strong USD against most currencies, but the looney looks prime, especially considering the fact most people were counting on parity....

All the best mate, I reckon it might be time for bed.....

[Kauri]

Was waiting for a W2 to find a good point to take a long trade... but it looks like it has run without me... :banghead:
Cheers
..........Kauri

[wiseguy]

^^ thats a nice head and shoulders pattern forming. hopefully it'll come back to retest the 0.8000 area.

[tayser]

^ EURAUD has another very nice H & S forming too.

http://thehoddlegrid.net/dump/euraud1.gif

[Kauri]

Time for a couple of hours sleep and then up to see if we make it with a W2 this time...
Cheers
.....Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi Kauri,

Great charts and good on u for the posting.


I am back short on the AUD from about 1 hour ago,

See it making a test of the lows to maybe breaking them.

But this is maybe another range pattern in creating.

Good trading

[Kauri]

Still have a medium term bearish outlook... on dailys... but on the 60Min am half expecting a small bullish correction first.. ;)
Cheers
...Kauri

[Kauri]

Well we got the small correction, a lot quicker than I expected.. now to see if a tradable swing presents..
Cheers
...Kauri

[Kauri]

Well we got the small correction, a lot quicker than I expected.. now to see if a tradable swing presents..
Cheers
...Kauri

Is moving along well... so far
Cheers
...Kauri

[Kauri]

Is in the typical area for a minor W3... will be interesting to see if it goes on in a 5 wave or an ABC...
Cheers
...Kauri

[Kauri]

For anyone interested in Harmonics the Skippy is,.. according to my count :confused: .., setting up for a butterfly... :eek: Have finally worked out how to project them in DT... now for the Gartley...
Cheers
.....Kauri

[tayser]

Anyone still short on the AUD??? :)

http://thehoddlegrid.net/dump/audusd11.gif

http://thehoddlegrid.net/dump/audjpy1.gif

http://thehoddlegrid.net/dump/euraud2.gif

http://thehoddlegrid.net/dump/gbpaud2.gif

[jovan]

No, but I think now is time to short it.

[>Apocalypto<]

No, but I think now is time to short it.

why would u short it and on what time frame?

[Kauri]

Keeping on eye on the Skippy, if for no other reason than the 89 horizontal area has proved quite strong recently.. :)
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

The name of this thread is a bit misleading... any chance of someone changing it to just AUD?? :confused:
Have got a very tight stop on the skippy, notwithstanding the figures due out soon, if my count is correct and a W5 completes I would expect an intermediate W2 to head for the S/R line around .89.. now must leave it to its own devices and trust to my stops and take the wife for a cataract op... :pirate:
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Barndat]

Hello Kauri, If the CPI is higher than .9% it should go up though it respects double tops I have noticed. By the look of the current rally the good news maybe priced in so we could see a drop to around 8875 i.e. 50% retracement then push higher. The Daily looks very bullish to me...

[Kauri]

Latest info that has popped up on my screen... now off to the docs with wife for cataract.. :banghead: :D

Firm Underlying CPI Points To Rate Hike In November Sydney, October 24. Australia's inflation data came in mixed with headline CPI rising just 0.7%, below the median market forecast for a 0.9% rise and IFR's 1.0% forecast, helped by lower petrol prices. However, the RBA's underlying measures were on the high side, with the weighted median rising 1.0% and trimmed mean rising 0.9%, both ahead of the market median forecasts for a 0.8% gain; IFR had expected a 0.9% rise for both. With both measures at the top of the 2-3% target zone for CPI, and rising by more than 3.5% annualised (4.0% for weighted median), the data points to a rate hike when the RBA next meets in November. Inflationary pressures are firming--the 1.0% rise in the weighted median was the fastest increase in 16 years, while the trimmed mean has now spent six months at an annualised 3.6%, up from 3.2% a year ago. With the labour market continuing to tighten, food prices set to rise sharply in the current quarter, as foreshadowed by the strong gains in this sector shown at the producer price level, and domestic price pressures remaining generally strong, the RBA would lose credibility if it fails to act. The economy has clearly shrugged off the last rate hike in August, and more needs to be done to prevent it growing faster than potential and raising inflationary expectations in the longer term.

Cheers
.............Kauri

[Kauri]

May be heading initially, in the short term, towards a W2 around the 89 mark??
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Have added to my long skippy.. 5th wave?
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Apart from the rate speculation there are a few other factors supporting the Skippy...
Cheers
..........Kauri


Sydney, October 29:
The AUD/USD is back above 0.9200 and has made yet another 23-year high at
0.9216. traders say that the reports of Xstrata"s 3.1 BLN AUD bid for Australian
miner Jubilee is helping sentiment and there is a wide mix of buyers supporting
the AUD/USD. Australian exporters and investment banks were good buyers below
0.9200 and Japanese names have also been noted. There is talk in Tokyo that
retail demand for investment trusts might be fairly large this week and Japanese
retail margin traders are getting more active selling JPY and buying currencies
such as the AUD. The AUD/USD trades 0.9210/15.

[Kauri]

Have taken off the short term component overnight on expectations of a minor W4..(the minor W1 and W4 are not too convincing though).. will watch and see if another opportunity pops up for a final?? run into a minor W5..
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

Has touched on where I expect a W4 to reach... will wait and see what the U.S does with it tonight before I commit to a trade either way..
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

and have taken off the LT portion of the trade..(also on the Euro).. has reached what I consider to be the min W5.. and am not overly confident that the 25bp cut wasn't already to a large extent factored in already...
Cheers
...........Kauri

[Kauri]

Have closed out an overnight opportunistic short.. not sure of the direction from here pre-NFP... a 2orB during the day would set us up nicely for another short tonight?? maybe?? ;) Now to grab some sleep before the Red Bull divebombers start roaring overhead again practising for the weekend on the Swan..

Cheers
...........Kauri

[Kauri]

Have taken another opportunistic short... will be keeping it very tight...

Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Have taken another opportunistic short... will be keeping it very tight...

Cheers
..........Kauri

Made enough to slip down the road and buy a cleanskin red.. :eek:
It would be nice if we turned around the 9225-9325 mark.. 50% ret of the last down leg and also a=c.... :sly:
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Have gone short looking for the W3orC... following the Dow down??
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

More D&G?? :) Sure has some bounce in it tonight...
Cheers
...........Kauri



Nov. 2. The market has been caught long and wrong on the spike higher in carry trades and the carry trades continue to crumble, dragging AUD/USD lower. AUD/USD has triggered stops under 0.9180 and under 0.9150 and now trades at 0.9145 as AUD/JPY collapses. Next support for AUD/USD remains at 0.9120.
AUD/JPY which hit highs around 106.40 this morning has dropped to 104.75, taking out more stops on the move lower. Rumors of another large write down from an investment bank is helping fuel stock and carry trade losses.

[happytrader]

Although this post may be a little off topic, I though it might be of interest to some now that the AUD is at all time highs. Have just found out that goods of less than AUD$1000 are import duty and tax free.

Now I can order that drum set from the US

Cheers
Happytrader

[TradingAffinity]

The RBA monthly records show an ATH high of 1.4875 ATH for the AUD pair in 1973....another source gives 1.4950 ATH, also in 1973.

[reece55]

Have gone short looking for the W3orC... following the Dow down??
Cheers
.........Kauri

Hi Kauri
Same count here with me, it always amazes me how spooky/powerful charting is when you combine both EW and Fibo - I still have my learning skates on, but what I'm calling A is 38.2 of tough to peak of 5 wave move on the 4 hour chart and the snapback from A is about 50% of W4 to W5......... The symmetry is interesting.

Wonder if the almost certain .25% interest rate decision will have any impact on the pair, it's tomorrow isn't it.....

Cheers and good to have an active Forex buddy here on Aussie Stock Forums!
Reece

[Kauri]

Hi Reece
I'm still on my learner skates too, I find that sometimes the ice is pretty thin underfoot.. :D ..
I tend to think the raise from the RBA is well and truly priced in already, but who knows with the markets??? still trying to get my head around the markets gyrations after the U.S NFP on friday. :confused: ..
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

There seems to be a bit of a horizontal S/R line at 9180ish.. will be looking for a possible short on a swing low if she breaks through that..
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Taken a bite on the minor abc count..on break lower below the b... still expect 9180ish area to put up a bit of a fight..
Cheers
..........Kauri

[reece55]

Taken a bite on the minor abc count..on break lower below the b... still expect 9180ish area to put up a bit of a fight..
Cheers
..........Kauri

I'm in with you Kauri, lets see how we go.....

So far, USD is up across the board...... Had a joy of time shorting the EUR/JPY for about 50 pips in 30 mins!!!

Cheers

[Kauri]

Hi Reece,
Some spirited defence of 9150 options going on I think... if we manage to break through there..:)
Cheers
..........Kauri

[reece55]

Hi Reece,
Some spirited defence of 9150 options going on I think... if we manage to break through there..:)
Cheers
..........Kauri

Yep, so far fairly heavy resistance down near that level....

I have to go to sleep tonight, so my stop is in place at about 92.30 - lets hope the US session yields some profits!!!

All the best Kauri...

Cheers
Reece

[Kauri]

Not a lot either way today.. :(
Cheers
...........Kauri


November 6 The AUD/USD opened in Sydney around 0.9207 and has traded
a 0.9204/36 range so far. Conditions have been very thin and skittish today with
most of Australia more interested in betting on the Melbourne Cup than watching
boring Asian FX markets. :D The pair has had a bid tone for most of the day ahead
of tomorrow"s interest rate decision and hit the highs of the day over lunch
when an Asian sovereign name paid a few small offers around the place. The pair
however came off hard to 20 offered before bids reappeared. With tomorrows rate
decision a forgone conclusion may traders were suggesting tomorrows decision
might prove to be the classic buy the rumour sell the fact situation. Others
there is little interest to sell AUD other than on equity woes with many model
funds rushing to sell JPY crosses (and in particular AUD/JPY) when stocks drop
quickly. Most of Asia today concentrated on the Hang Seng after y"days 5% drop
but despite being volatile, the index was last up 0.3% giving dealers few fresh
leads. Plenty of newspaper reports today on investment banks and their subprime
woes but none had any currency impact.

[waz]

A huge amount of activity in the last 24 hours but no new post.

After hitting 94c, it dropped to 93.10 with a small bounce, then fell 1.3c in a few hours. In a few mins it managed to fall about 0.6c. Down to 91.90

Then again rapidly went back up to almost 93 and is now 92.6.

Huge swings in a very short timeframe, with really no new news.

Its looking like it will trade within the band of 92 to 93 for the next few hours.

[Kauri]

Huge swings in a very short timeframe, with really no new news.

.
waz,
A little more to add to the big story out of China yesterday coupled with the rush to risk aversion which struck yesterday...



November 8 The AUD/USD opened at 0.9275 in Sydney and has traded a
0.9190/0.9300 range so far. Volatility was back with a vengeance today; the
first move was hard down in the twilight zone between NY close and Asia open.
With stocks down 2.5% across the board on Wall Street, a sharp move lower in
USD/JPY was tripped on the break of 112.60. It was stop loss city below 50 and
the pair touched 112.02 before recovering. AUD/JPY fell from around 105.60 to
103.10 in a heartbeat. AUD/USD touched 0.9290 before doing a quick u-turn. Once
Tokyo opened, Japanese importers came searching for offers in USD/JPY and the
AUD/USD and AUD/JPY quickly regained their poise. Needless to say what happened
here today happened in thin market conditions and one should not over read the
situation. The weak US dollar theme remains the overriding consideration and
whilst the AUD was buffeted, it would be a brave call to say we have seen the
end of AUD strength this year. Y"days RBA statement got plenty of coverage with
some analysts saying the hawkish comments point to a Dec rate hike. Others
disagree saying RBA needed to be hawkish as hike came during a federal election.

[Kauri]

Interesting to see if it takes out the triangle??
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Interesting to see if it takes out the triangle??
Cheers
..........Kauri

Skipping along nicely...the possible 1.62% W3?? may hold her for a while...
Cheers
..........Kauri

[tayser]

some sensational moves on the Yen cross last night (and a very nice one only an hour ago!) - all up you could have scalped well over 100pips quite easily.

[Kauri]

Have brought my stop in close... wouldn't be surprised at a little rally around here... the yen has strong support at 110 and may possibly direct where we go short term from here... if stop is taken will be looking for another leg down.. soon-eventually
Cheers
.........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

Patiently waiting to see if 90/89.90 is tested again ....... waiting to pounce if achieved ...... but it may put up a struggle trying to get there .

Already riding a short EUR against the JPY , waiting to see if 161.8 holds support or sets off another freefall .

[ithatheekret]

Scratch that ..... I'm in @ 90.184

[ithatheekret]

90.212 scalp , retest coming up

[ithatheekret]

oooh ..... 160.80s for a second scalp with the eur/jpy .

action there too .

[ithatheekret]

Took a reversal postion on that trade and could well , reverse it again .

It just shows the distinct difference in time frames for forex traders , who whilst looking ahead are really working on 15+ min. time frames , see the trend hitch a ride , but ..... if you really want volatility , there are spurts of it daily in most crosses . Up , Down , it all works .

[Kauri]

Have got out of the habit of playing in the counter-trends... looks like 9050-9100 may possibly be on the cards though???
Cheers
........Kauri

[reece55]

Have got out of the habit of playing in the counter-trends... looks like 9050-9100 may possibly be on the cards though???
Cheers
........Kauri

Your game Kauri, the selling across the higher yielding currencies has been an interesting trend since Friday's dramatic moves....

The AUD continues to be under significant selling pressure due to the buying in yen.... I'm going to sit on the sidelines at present with this pair...... Best of luck with the trade... However, there is normally a bounce after such a dramatic move....

Cheers

[Kauri]

Your game Kauri, the selling across the higher yielding currencies has been an interesting trend since Friday's dramatic moves....

The AUD continues to be under significant selling pressure due to the buying in yen.... I'm going to sit on the sidelines at present with this pair...... Best of luck with the trade... However, there is normally a bounce after such a dramatic move....

Cheers
Not as game as that Reece.. :D .. I'm over playing in the counter-trends... just biding my time waiting for this bounce?? to play itself out before re-establishing my shorts... still of the opinion we are looking for something around 8750-8550.. maybe... :)
Cheers
.........Kauri

[reece55]

Not as game as that Reece.. :D .. I'm over playing in the counter-trends... just biding my time waiting for this bounce?? to play itself out before re-establishing my shorts... still of the opinion we are looking for something around 8750-8550.. maybe... :)
Cheers
.........Kauri

Sorry Kauri, misread your previous statement... You can get burnt trying to play those counters.........

Yep, I think a short is the way to go here, and I'm aiming for at least the 87 level, but the darn bounce just isn't forthcoming at the moment.... perhaps 90 and bit is all we will get??? Don't wanna jump the gun here.....

Cheers

[Kauri]

Short both the Skippy and Yen... tight stops..
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Short both the Skippy and Yen... tight stops..
Cheers
..........Kauri
Taken on a flag type set-up... W4??
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

Strong defence around the 88 mark... might be an option barrier lurking??? can't wait around any longer to see so alarums set and off to the scratcher...
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

Closed out.. alarums off...will watch for a successfull assault on 88 for another entry... :sleeping:
Cheers
........Kauri

[Kauri]

Woke up this morning to find myself holding another short... seems the late US sell-off, on-going carry trade unwind, and lower commodity prices might have done the damage??
Cheers
........Kauri

[Kauri]

Woke up this morning to find myself holding another short... seems the late US sell-off, on-going carry trade unwind, and lower commodity prices might have done the damage??
Cheers
........Kauri

Have closed out the short for a small gain... put it in the scalp basket I guess, although so far as scalps go this one had precious few hairs on it...
...
everyone in the financial media seems to now think the skippy is doomed... so I wouldn't be surprised to see her bounce and or consolidate a tad.. :D Amazing how these financial commentators only a short week ago had..
the skippy at parity
the ASX at 7000+
gold to $1000
oil $100+
and now have without turning a hair lined up on the opposite side of the fence.. :D What a difference a day makes..
Cheers
........Kauri

[Kauri]

Testing what I see as the W4.. if it moves decisively into it it may indicate that we are into a W2orB...
Cheers
........Kauri

[Kauri]

Once I map out the minor moves they invariably fall apart, but for what it is worth.. ???
And yes, a day does make a lot of difference, but there is not much worse than getting caught short...
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

Have gone long looking initially for the possible a=c.... also the overall correction may just be complete at 8750ish.. a bit shallower than anticipated but signs of a bullish market if it has??? will be watching the effect of bullish asian markets on her today for more clues...
Cheers
........Kauri

[Kauri]

Have closed out for a small gain... off to the dentist to get a crown done (wife reckons a Tiara would suit me better :rolleyes: ) .. will reassess when I return...
Cheers
.........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

Even the oil options didn't abate the fall , and they wobbled last night :D , but it was a doozy of a drop . I wasn't game to ride it down , due to the round up of options last night . Euro has been good fun though .

[Kauri]

Right on cue Skippy has spotted a Roo shooter in the bushes... will wait for a swing to confirm before taking aim... ( I have a medium term upward bias) so this may just be a sucker move... maybe...I think....
Cheers
.........Kauri

[soso]

Daily EW.

[Kauri]

looking for 8970,Wa, to fall, until then it is still in the c wave...
Cheers
.............Kauri

[Kauri]

set stop a couple of points south of B/E, in case the US goes back into last hour rally mode, alternative count (hindsite one) on 4Hourly.... now back to the scratcher for a couple of hours kip...
Cheers
........Kauri

[Kauri]

Still in two (or more) minds over where she is headed at the moment... if she breaks 8987 I'm in the long camp, otherwise I'm staying in my shorts. Nikkei not giving much direction at the moment...
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

Think it is a touch clearer... just wiped off half of the labels and stood back,, gone short at the moment, but cautiously waiting to see the big ticket anns tonight and which way they push us.
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

Has got through, just, the W1=W3... now looking for the 1.62% at around 88.... gold and the metals complex overnight are on my side, as well as the Dow...
Cheers
.........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

I was looking at Skippies chart going back to the Reserves intervention in August . Since then , it has fallen through the crack in the floorboards and with the current chart setup over the last few days , it looks as though it has a little further to fall . I see a slight head and shoulder set up which could see us testing 87.30 ,

With the otherside of the carry trade currencies like the Swissie and the Yen , both showed weakness .

The Yen which has set off alarms looks ready to test 110.05 . Although there are support levels at 110.30/35 , which seem to be a rescue . I used the 50 point pivot directed at 109.85 - 110.85 , noting that the oscillators were falling .

The Swissie looks as if it is recovering from being oversold and is at the coal face , trying to pick its way through 112. with resistance around 112.8 .
The support level at 111.80/90 looks to be etched in marble , but I can see another in the high 109's ........ let's hope it isn't tested , again oscillators were falling .

[Kauri]

added to short... not sure why...
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

added to short... not sure why...
Cheers
.........Kauri

And all closed out as stop hit... no gain on that move..
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Am running with a short from the top of the 4Hr channel... tight stop..
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Seems strange, the weak $US, improving commodity prices, rising interest rates, and the skippy is struggling to stay afloat... just may be some truth behind the Aussie bank rumours after all???? :bricks1:
Cheers
...........Kauri

[Kauri]

The horizontalS/R around 8850 is giving a bit of a fight currently.. a solid break through 8830 odd would be positive (or negative, depending where you sit).
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

Got through the 8830's with a rush, now to see if she can hold on to it until the US start playing tonight.
Cheers
.........Kauri

[tayser]

dowwwwnnn she goes.

http://thehoddlegrid.net/linuxtroll/audjpy211107-2.gif

GMMA luvs it.

[Kauri]

At an interesting stage in several timeframes....
Cheers
..........Kauri

[tayser]

the yen is shizzling its pants atm.

[reece55]

the yen is shizzling its pants atm.

LMAO....... shizzling......

Yep, it's gaining momentum like there is no tomorrow......

102 is the key number for the USD:JPY, will we see another intervention????

Interesting times....

Cheers

[waz]

AUD/USD has now fallen 3c in the space of 12 hours or so going from 0.8955 to 0.8655.

Massive drop considering the DOW is only expected to drop by about 100 pts in the next session.

So far the really only bad news to come out of America is oil prices. which usually pushes up the Au. Freddie Mac is old news

Just in the last 15 mins the Au has gone up 65 pips. Looks like we have a big enough bounce to say we have hit the bottom for the next dew hours.

[chops_a_must]

At an interesting stage in several timeframes....
Cheers
..........Kauri
Don't have access to AUD/USD charts, but just by going on what I have heard from Cocoa Kohler on the news, I have a break down figure of 84c for some reason in my head.

Any other targets?

[tayser]

here ya are chops:

http://thehoddlegrid.net/linuxtroll/audusd211107-1.gif

(sorry (again) for breaking everyone's non-widescreens :D)

[buggalug]

Just learning to trade Forex, so be nice, but I've gone long, I believe we had an expanding diagonal to complete C, at just broke through the 38.2% retracement, but have a pretty tight stop:

[Kauri]

Don't have access to AUD/USD charts, but just by going on what I have heard from Cocoa Kohler on the news, I have a break down figure of 84c for some reason in my head.

Any other targets?
Chops,
I have been looking for the low 85's for a couple of weeks now... since this correction started... that would put it at close to the 50% ret point... low 84's would give a=c, with the b being a 50% ret of a, if the count is right of course..
Cheers
.........Kauri

[chops_a_must]

Chops,
I have been looking for the low 85's for a couple of weeks now... since this correction started... that would put it at close to the 50% ret point... low 84's would give a=c, with the b being a 50% ret of a, if the count is right of course..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Just looking at the charts there, the low 85's look more likely than the 84's. I thought it had gone slightly higher on the rebound, retesting 92 again.

But thanks for that. ;)

[Kauri]

and maybe a W4 triangle to go on with...
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Triangle not withstanding, I have actually closed out my shorts, for various reasons, but as the Japanese market usually?? comes in initially on the other side of the overnight trend, will be watching for another dab a little later on... I think..
Cheers
.......Kauri

[Kauri]

Have been playing in the channel, taking a christmas gift of 50 odd points up and down... may take one more (hopefully ) before the Euro Zone comes on... maybe they will try to give it a large move with the low liquidity.. and maybe not.. remember the Euro this time last year, will be watching it closely this year. :)
Cheers
.........Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

Have been playing in the channel, taking a christmas gift of 50 odd points up and down... may take one more (hopefully ) before the Euro Zone comes on... maybe they will try to give it a large move with the low liquidity.. and maybe not.. remember the Euro this time last year, will be watching it closely this year. :)
Cheers
.........Kauri


Why what happened last year Kauri?

[Kauri]

Why what happened last year Kauri?
The $US was caned by "smart operators"?? using the typically low liquidity in the markets from thanksgiving Weds on... ended up taking 5 figures... :)
Cheers
..........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

Poor ol' Skippy keeps on chipping away at the rock , could be a long innings , what with carry and ores all over the place . But she seems to slowly be climbing out of the spinnifex ...........

the AUD/JPY must have ol' man Emu driving today and I think he's been drinking that rocket fuel again :D

went long awhile back now ........ even got to make a few coffees .

long the EUR/JPY cross too , just started to throw a wobbly .............

[Kauri]

Have been playing in the channel, taking a christmas gift of 50 odd points up and down... may take one more (hopefully ) before the Euro Zone comes on... maybe they will try to give it a large move with the low liquidity.. and maybe not.. remember the Euro this time last year, will be watching it closely this year. :)
Cheers
.........Kauri

Seems a bit early... but not to worry.. was hoping for another swing through the channel... will just have to stay long... for now anyway.. :)
Cheers
.........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

I've had a good think about the chart today .

The spiral off the highs has pulled up , looks like a side ways motion , much like the Euro was in last week bit of chipping .

A little bottom fishing in the troughs could yeild a nice pick up , but the factors needed to empower the play are after entry , the cross needs to push past 87.15 area , could stall around there too . If it goes on, aim for 87.5's for a test area . If it bangs about 87.5 look for tight ranges , before it can attempt 87.9's . If it hits the 87.9s look for 88.55ish for a break into the 88.7,s and 9's , before getting toward the 90.17 point .

That's what my line points to . 90.17(8/9)

[Kauri]

Taken a small short... a lot of stop hunting going on today... on all major pairs...
Cheers
.........kauri

[ithatheekret]

Made the high 87's resistance may push it back down to low 087.5's or 4's yet and bang about in a tight range , unless some thoughtful bank comes along and gets helpful . A lot of positioning going on , couple of footprints in the sand ........... I expect a few 10-15 pips band ranges for awhile until Europe finishes breakfast :sly: , I just picked up the drop area 45's and 48's long added them to an 87.3 pozzi and I know there's some minor resistance around 87.5's , just have to see if it can push through it again . The resistance @87.777 is what I want to see hammered at , 87.5 resistance is harsh though .........

[ithatheekret]

Should of looked at the chart first oops ........ okay we're at 87.5/4 area now :rolleyes: , this is where I expect a bit of the old Atari tennis .

[Kauri]

At 50%ret of last small up-leg so have stop at B/E... playing it safe as with the low volume it doesn't take much to push her around..
Cheers
.........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

Low volume is like pulling teeth .........

Had an urge to do something daring at 8738 .

I know slap me silly and call me stupid .

[ithatheekret]

yes I did @ 8704 big time

[Kauri]

Brought the stop down to lock in 1.5 R/R odd as she plumbs the possible lower channel...

ithatheekret.. are you long or short??.. your original post sounded longish??
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

Stop taken at best part of 2R/R... will wait and see what the Europeans have in mind for us tonight... :)
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

I wonder..... :aliena:
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

Why wonder... when you can ask the question...
:grenade:
Cheers
..........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

Yes long Kauri , reduced a few of those positions , couldn't resist the profit .

Got one pozzi left will hold it .

[Kauri]

Yes long Kauri , reduced a few of those positions , couldn't resist the profit .

Got one pozzi left will hold it .

Wide stops...happy days..

Cheers
........Kauri

[Kauri]

Seems a bit contrarian, but I am leaning towards another bout of risk aversion.... will be watching to see how the Japanese see things after thier break...
Cheers
.........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

I think the focus on the Yen is where our thought train should take us .

Where running on technicals and events at present . Fundamentally the Yen will not be backed by a rate rise anywhere soon , the Japanese economy sucks and the policies / actions of the administrations are a bit shy on the growth theories , so my leaning is towards a strength period and a weakness period . I see the Yen going back towards 110 first , say in a month or so and possibly lower . The current action being more of an event than a trend , $100 oil is a huge threat to the Japanese and I don't see that retreating too much lately , even if it get's back into the $80's , I feel it would only be a slower kill off for their economy .

Mind you we've tested 107's , so a retest has to be on the cards , especially with all the strength calls in the market and at present that's only 50 pips away .

[ithatheekret]

Back into .885 push , could retreat a little again , see if it can hold the .855 , 50 area for the next leg , expect some US profit taking too .

If she can get into 886/7's and hold her ground on a 855/50 retreat we could see in 89 tonight .

[Kauri]

Seems a bit contrarian, but I am leaning towards another bout of risk aversion.... will be watching to see how the Japanese see things after thier break...
Cheers
.........Kauri

Heading for the lower edge of the 4Hourly channel... if she gets there that will just about complete the 50% ret of the last major upleg...
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Interesting to see how strong the old support will turn out to be...
Cheers
.........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

Yep my trailer got hit , thank heavens I'd set it too .

[Kauri]

Stepped out for a while to get my hair cut and come back to find it is not only the hair that got cut.. :afro: Stop set just above the 50% ret of 3orC got taken... sitting on the sidelines now watching...
Apparently ADIA getting set for 7.5Bln of Citi has convinced everyone the markets, and risk, is OK again... for today at least... :cool:
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Barndat]

Ha ha sorry but I can't stop laughing at your haircut joke Kauri, ha ha.
I have been following your enlightening posts with much interest.
Cheers
Peter

[ithatheekret]

Hey , Kauri . I use a Oanda practice platform to make eachways on , set indi's and usually do opp. in a/c's , one 4 pos and one 4 schwinging :D , but it works for me especially on hangover mornings :rolleyes:

[Kauri]

Hey , Kauri . I use a Oanda practice platform to make eachways on , set indi's and usually do opp. in a/c's , one 4 pos and one 4 schwinging :D , but it works for me especially on hangover mornings :rolleyes:

Instead of using a stop I could use a buy stop to cover my shorts and open a long position simultaneously but as the way I enter trades has a fair amount of discretion built in I prefer to enter a reverse trade manually, whilst on the other hand being quite comfortable with auto GSL's... as it turned out I wouldn't have gone long the Skippy on the last surge anyways.. (except in a delayed hindsight trade of course :D ).
I'll let her settle now and see if another trade opportunity pops up, or not... as my old father used to say.. " don't go down the mine son, there's plenty of coal in the yard.."
Cheers
.........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

I just noted the USD/JPY is changing mood , I think it's just thrown a hammer ?

I wonder if that signals an about face it tested the waters of 107 , could be an AUD + ( touch wood )

[Kauri]

If anyone follows flags.......
Mind you my alter ego just reminded me that they often play the last post as the colours are lowered.... :bounce:
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

Have been watching a triangle form on the 1Hourly, but, as with the previous flag, I can't really identify a strong trend to place it in, so I'll just be watching... and waiting... I think..
Cheers
........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

The stop hunters are in action on a few crosses AUD and the JPY .

Nasty little creatures they are trying to break away from fundamentals :D

[Kauri]

Looking for a short trade... :)
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Looking for a short trade... :)
Cheers
..........Kauri

and stop down to B/E..
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

and stop down to B/E..
Cheers
.........Kauri

Survived the first push, just...
Cheers
........Kauri