LGL - Lihir Gold

[JetDollars]

Dear All,

As gold reaching high and many gold stocks follow the trend. Where would you think LHG will be heading for short term, say until the end of November this year?

Your comment will be appreciated.

[still_in_school]

Hi Jet Dollars,

if gold can stay above $430 an ounce, we should see further appreciation in gold, and with todays election in the US, this will be dependant on who the new president is, but over all, im bullish on gold, due to gold and the US dollar hedging against each other, but some other importance to me is, that now you can trade gold on the nikkie or chinese market, anyways this is a little concern to me...

overall i may have sold out early on my gold positions in early october, though LHG gold could rally up to 1.80 or we could see the end of a trend coming soon...

Cheers,
sis

[markor]

Given that there is consolidation going on in the resources sector, as shown by Xstrata's proposal to acquire WMC Resources, a mining house from Canada, UK or Switzerland could snap up Lihir Gold ( market cap $1.6 billion vs $7.4 billion for WMC ) ( I gleaned this from today's financial review ) in the not too distant future.
If this is the case then Lihir Gold could be a good short/medium term investment, in my opinion and I will follow it closely over the next few months.

Markor

[phoenixrising]

Jet,

A seemingly well credentialed person at the Traders Expo on the weekend said at least some of LHG's gold costs $410/oz to mine so a price below this could be quite bearish. $20 leeway atm.

Cheers

PR

[RichKid]

The high costs of LHG's production is one of the reasons why I've opted for higher quality gold stocks. They also have more hedging in place than some of the other stocks (eg OGD, OXR) reducing the potential upside. Also with management being less than reliable I consider it unattractive, if LHG flies up on the Gold price you can bet your bottom dollar that there'll be more gold co's which give you far more leverage. Having said that if this is a co that's not operating as profitably as it should then it may become a takeover target.

[JetDollars]

Thanks guys regarding your opinion for LHG gold.

Before I posted this topic, I actually bought some of LHG Gold, but wanted to know other opinion on it.

I also did a covered calls with it as well.

So I hope it will stay about $1.30 by the end of this month so I get exercise which will generate more income.

I also have interest in WMR (WMC Resource) where the second offer will be coming from Xstrata in 1 or 2 weeks time. I guess the next offer will be more than $7.00 per share. So buying some call options of $7.00 or more strike price would be a good thing to do. Fingers Cross Though.

[stockGURU]

Lihir Gold made a nice move upwards today on above average volume finishing at $1.08.

Their new geothermal power facility comes online this month and should result in significant savings. Production is forecast to increase and according to the company the cash cost per ounce is on the way down. Long term capital requirements are also set to decrease significantly.

Reserves have increased steadily since 1999 to around 18 million ounces.

Anyone still following this one? Someone was buying up big today.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

What about their hedging disadvantage? Does anyone know how that affects them? :D

[brerwallabi]

This one is great one for the inexperienced to lose money. Only wish I was able to trade during the day, pretty sure I could have picked up a few $k over the last few days ggggrrr. With gold @ $417 watch closely - gold @ $450 LHG could be up and over $1.30 again but could easily drop to $1.00 or lower. Tina your money could be floating away under that bridge be careful with LHG.

[bvbfan]

Got this from the Lihir website
(http://www.lihir.com.pg/reports/jan05/financial.htm)
Lihir Gold intends to continues to reduce its hedged profile over time. The company does not intend to enter into additional hedge commitments during 2005 and, based on the current and anticipated spot gold price, expects to deliver not less than 160,000 ounces into its commitments (representing 29% of those commitments) during the 2005 year. The Board of Directors has determined that at least 160,000 ounces be delivered into hedges each year and that this be reviewed, with a view to raising the minimum rate of delivery, in the event that the gold price declines closer to strike price levels.

The mark-to-market value at 31 December 2004 was negative $232.2 million based on an increased spot price of $438.00 per ounse. This compares with a value of negative $190.0 million, at a spot price of $415.65 per ounce, at the end of the previous quarter. Hedge commitments represent less than 10% of published reserves and 4.5% of resources

[chicken]

The high costs of LHG's production is one of the reasons why I've opted for higher quality gold stocks. They also have more hedging in place than some of the other stocks (eg OGD, OXR) reducing the potential upside. Also with management being less than reliable I consider it unattractive, if LHG flies up on the Gold price you can bet your bottom dollar that there'll be more gold co's which give you far more leverage. Having said that if this is a co that's not operating as profitably as it should then it may become a takeover target.
Rich Kid...takeover target...not likely...its a PNG company and they do their own thing up there....Goverment owns shares in this...profitable yes but Png Goverment will keep owning this I have been in PNG and difficult place to do business without the Goverment....

[ob1kenobi]

Rich Kid...takeover target...not likely...its a PNG company and they do their own thing up there....Goverment owns shares in this...profitable yes but Png Goverment will keep owning this I have been in PNG and difficult place to do business without the Goverment....

I've worked in PNG also. The Government has always insisted on having a significant shareholding in any mining development. Much of it has to do with the diverse culture within PNG and the importance they attach to traditional land ownership, which they recognize in law. As a country, it has a lot of potential. Unfortunately too many other factors hinder the type of progress that could be made. That probably explains the extreme hedging.

[brerwallabi]

This is a great stock to trade who really cares if its $1.35 or below $1.00 just dont put your savings in and expect it to fund your retirement.

[clowboy]

Anybody have any current views on this stock?

[brerwallabi]

The view seems to be the market is happy with its loss June half year as LHG has stated all is on track for a better and more profitable second half with considerable cost savings due to a geothermal plant. The price of gold is also closely associated to LHG there are far safer stocks then this one IMO not a long trade and not one for the nervous. It also could be near an acquistion as one day the gold will run out on Lihir Island.

[resourceful_man]

This is a very over rated stock.
When they decide to pay a dividended, that's when I'll consider buying them.
Strickly a high end traders stock.

[Hanrahan]

His son wanted a cowboy outfit, so he bought him LHG. :)

I don't hold and never would till they can mine profitably.

[brisvegas]

LHG approaching an interesting level imo , certainly will monitor in future along with XAU chart


................. Pete

[brisvegas]

XAU looking similar

............... Pete

[brisvegas]

Gold in AUD for good measure


...................... Pete

[brisvegas]

getting interesting , short term TL supp still holding


..................... Pete

[brisvegas]

short term TL supp failed today. bias change for me


..................... Pete

[38lulu]

The volume was pretty high in the past few days, (almost the same as BHP). does anyone know the reason?
what's ur view on this stock?

Happy trading!

lulu

[It's Snake Pliskin]

The volume was pretty high in the past few days, (almost the same as BHP). does anyone know the reason?
what's ur view on this stock?

Happy trading!

lulu

Bears will be ruling the price of gold soon.

Read this:

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=2919

Short term price falls caught my eye.

Snake

[38lulu]

Snake,
thanks for sharing the article. :rolleyes:
I think i will HOLD - for now.... :p:

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake,
thanks for sharing the article. :rolleyes:
I think i will HOLD - for now.... :p:

Don't let my post sway your judgement, but a lot of mining stocks have taken a hammering over the past two days.

[38lulu]

Yes i know, it is good to hear some opinions from other people when you have doubts, but most of all, keep eyes open and trust on your own judgement.
thank you kindly.

lulu

[brisvegas]

short term TL supp failed today. bias change for me


..................... Pete


developed nicely looking to see if longer term TL supp at 1.48 ish holds . multiple time frames very useful . some rules i go by


LAWS OF MULTIPLE TIME FRAMES

1. Every time frame has its own structure.

2. The higher time frames overrule the lower time frames.

3. Prices in the lower time frame structure tend to respect the energy points of the higher time frame structure.

4. The energy points of support/resistance created by the higher time frame's vibration (prices) can be validated by the action of lower time periods.

5. The trend created by the next time period enables us to define the tradable trend.

6. What appears to be chaos in one time period can be order in another time period.

[brisvegas]

the weekly time frame alerted me to the potential (turned out to be actual ) pivot point . simplicity


............... Pete

[mime]

It's PE ratio is around 30. Do they have good future prospects? 30 is a little high for my comfort.

[Hanrahan]

This is a serious Q from a charting agnostic.

The last two weeks have been turbulent for all stocks but I made two profitable trades in the bluest of blue resources this week (I don't consider myself a trader) These small wins allowed me to keep up my spirits and not lose my head his morn. Didn't sell my portfolio!!!!

Q1: Are these charts on LHG useful if they are not overlaid on the the ASX or sector charts?

Q2: More generally, if charting and black box trading works, such volitility should be manna from heaven. Was it?

Be honest now; Who's financed a new hybrid Civic this week?

[brisvegas]

charting works for me

volatility works for me

who actually wants a hybrid honda civic


............... pete

[brisvegas]

This is a serious Q from a charting agnostic.



does this mean

1. you use charts but dont believe in god

2. you dont believe in a charting god

3. you dont believe in charts


............. pete with a wry smile

[Hanrahan]

does this mean

1. you use charts but dont believe in god

2. you dont believe in a charting god

3. you dont believe in charts


............. pete with a wry smile
A dyslectic agnostic insomniac lays awake at night wondering if there's a dog!!

(OK, some of the youngsters may not have heard it) :)

[RichKid]

It's PE ratio is around 30. Do they have good future prospects? 30 is a little high for my comfort.

Highly leveraged to POG imho, know gold and know LHG imho, especially with hedging decreasing. Big problem is mgmt unreliability. Just my views, I'm looking for more reliable stocks like OXR for gold leverage. No buying for me yet as it doesn't fit my criteria but some people like Brer wallaby say they make money on short term movements..

[JetDollars]

Highly leveraged to POG imho, know gold and know LHG imho, especially with hedging decreasing. Big problem is mgmt unreliability. Just my views, I'm looking for more reliable stocks like OXR for gold leverage. No buying for me yet as it doesn't fit my criteria but some people like Brer wallaby say they make money on short term movements..

As I understand RIO trying to get out of LHG 10%, if RIO try to get why would you stay in it? that's only IMHO!

[RichKid]

Looks like LHG is breaking out of some medium term resistance around 1.95, currently at $2 on good (but not very high) volume. Bucked the trend recently in terms of POG as gold has been falling for the last few weeks. I'm waiting to see if it breaks through cleanly or if it falls back to the around 1.50/60 in the current zigzag patern. If it holds above this 2 this may be the start of a strong run imo, especially with its hedging decreasing.

[JetDollars]

IMO, if gold price keep going up so does LHG, but if gold start coming down LHG will come down much faster because LHG does not have a good profit record, PE is too high.

I am waiting for gold price to drop back to below $460, so I can go short with LHG.

[RichKid]

IMO, if gold price keep going up so does LHG, but if gold start coming down LHG will come down much faster because LHG does not have a good profit record, PE is too high.

I am waiting for gold price to drop back to below $460, so I can go short with LHG.

Hey Jet,

Gold has had some wild times, big jump yesterday, and I mean big, look at the immediate trend and the recent close. LHG has certainly told us where it prefers to head. Look at volume picking up now, big numbers means big boys are in. Still a volatile stock but is trending strongly.

Dehedging and cost reductions have changed the complexion of LHG compared to same time last year imo. Still I'm bearish pog too, shame it hasn't realised it!

I'm in LHG and will take a bet each way. Note the increase in vol on upswings and decline on pullbacks. Note that the last price and volume bars are duplicates (just an error in chart).

[brerwallabi]

LIHIR GOLD LTD ADR (NasdaqNM:LIHRY) Delayed quote data Edit
Last Trade: 31.98
Trade Time: 3:25PM ET
Change: Up 1.58 (5.20%)
Prev Close: 30.40
Open: 31.39
Bid: 31.92 x 300
Ask: 31.97 x 400
1y Target Est: 13.08

Day's Range: 31.12 - 32.07
52wk Range: 15.19 - 30.50
Volume: 325,468
Avg Vol (3m): 111,186
As you can see a bit of activity on the NASDAQ last night up 5% a few bob can be made today on this he he.

[MarcusDZ]

Hi,
First post - I'm a first time investor and I've been reading this forum with great interest for the last couple of weeks. I've been scouring as many sources as I can before jumping in and I'd been watching LHG closely for the last 2 weeks (as has everyone else I'm sure). Regretting that I sat on my hands for so long (I just posted off my application to E*Trade yesterday) but a lot of friends had been recommending I jump on the gold bandwagon as soon as possible.

Given that LHG has taken off, what are people's thoughts on whether it is still a good time to buy or whether I have left my run too late?

I would also be interested if anyone can let me know of any other gold stocks I should look into.

Keep up the informative discussion.

[RichKid]

Hi,
First post - I'm a first time investor and I've been reading this forum with great interest for the last couple of weeks. I've been scouring as many sources as I can before jumping in and I'd been watching LHG closely for the last 2 weeks (as has everyone else I'm sure). Regretting that I sat on my hands for so long (I just posted off my application to E*Trade yesterday) but a lot of friends had been recommending I jump on the gold bandwagon as soon as possible.

Given that LHG has taken off, what are people's thoughts on whether it is still a good time to buy or whether I have left my run too late?

I would also be interested if anyone can let me know of any other gold stocks I should look into.

Keep up the informative discussion.

Hey Marcus!
Welcome to ASF! Glad to see you've found some useful info here. The best way to find info on gold stocks here on ASF is to either browse through the ASX Stock Chat forum or better still, use the search tool at top of this page, just type in 'gold stock' or something similar.

There are also a list of related threads at the bottom of each page. This thread is mainly for following the price of gold, the individual threads on gold stocks will have more info on what people thing of their prospects. (As you can see I've moved your post to this LHG thread).

Also have a quick look at our forum code of conduct and posting guidelines.

Send me a private message if you have any queries about admin stuff.

good luck!
RichKid
moderator

PS I like the avatar!

[bvbfan]

Even though I'm a gold bull and have been since April - May 2001
I'd be very careful now, it may test $500 but I think it will come back down to $450 or lower in early 2006

Also remember that the last 3 years the rally has been from generally speaking July to December each year

There are gold stocks that have underperformed in current market for some obvious reasons, some of these would be my picks if you were looking for a more hold than a short term trade.

[mime]

The stocks PE is 85. Anyone else find that a little high?

[RichKid]

Even though I'm a gold bull and have been since April - May 2001
I'd be very careful now, it may test $500 but I think it will come back down to $450 or lower in early 2006.

Also remember that the last 3 years the rally has been from generally speaking July to December each year.

There are gold stocks that have underperformed in current market for some obvious reasons, some of these would be my picks if you were looking for a more hold than a short term trade.

Agree with you, so it leaves us a small bullish window going into December, I've posted my technical view in the 'Gold- where is it heading' thread.

Mime,
If that is the correct PE for LHG then obviously it's very high but then I consider the markets to be far from rational as it reflects people's behaviour (if you look at the world you know how irrational we can be) so I'm just following the trend. But your figure is cause for concern for the risk averse, I'll be watching gold over the weekend but expect some sort of pullback before another strong leg higher for LHG in tune with gold's attempt at 500.

Also, from a fundamentals point of view word is that value pickers like Fat prophets are tipping LHG (I don't have proof) so maybe they know something we don't.

[mime]

The ASX site says it's PE is 7 but comsec says it's 85. Which site sould be believed?

Does the ASX site give stats like profit and revenue?

[RichKid]

The ASX site says it's PE is 7 but comsec says it's 85. Which site sould be believed?

Does the ASX site give stats like profit and revenue?

Hi Mime,
Thanks for the comparison, I suspected 85 may have been a different figure (ie not the price earning ratio). So the pe ratio appears to be 7 which to my uninformed mind appears to be very low but it is a volatile stock.

The attachment is a capture of the financials as of eod today, from the Fin Review site www.afr.com.au- use the stock quote tool on the right of the frontpage.

Not sure what the industry average is but LHG is one of those bigger stocks more likely to be taken over as global (eg US) gold stock pe's maybe higher.

[bvbfan]

Could be a P/E based on last years financials (85) vs forecast earnings for current year (7)

[JetDollars]

RK,

Very interesting to watch Gold stock in the last few days, especially LHG. I am still looking for opportunity with LHG to go short.

Been waiting for quite a long time now.

May be strangle is the way to go at this stage.



Hey Jet,

Gold has had some wild times, big jump yesterday, and I mean big, look at the immediate trend and the recent close. LHG has certainly told us where it prefers to head. Look at volume picking up now, big numbers means big boys are in. Still a volatile stock but is trending strongly.

Dehedging and cost reductions have changed the complexion of LHG compared to same time last year imo. Still I'm bearish pog too, shame it hasn't realised it!

I'm in LHG and will take a bet each way. Note the increase in vol on upswings and decline on pullbacks. Note that the last price and volume bars are duplicates (just an error in chart).

[RichKid]

RK,

Very interesting to watch Gold stock in the last few days, especially LHG. I am still looking for opportunity with LHG to go short.

Been waiting for quite a long time now.

May be strangle is the way to go at this stage.

Yes, could retrace, very volatile stock but I see pog 490+ easy on this current thrust.

[JetDollars]

I tried to place a straddle order on separate leg today, but only the put side got filled.

So might have to buy call tomorrow.

or maybe gold will retrace back to 475 tonight .... LOL ...


Yes, could retrace, very volatile stock but I see pog 490+ easy on this current thrust.

[RichKid]

I tried to place a straddle order on separate leg today, but only the put side got filled.

So might have to buy call tomorrow.

or maybe gold will retrace back to 475 tonight .... LOL ...

Hey Jet,
Gold up again, LHG pulling back a bit today but volume is high. I've learnt the hardway about not being able to constuct a strangle/straddle in time, very risky and I've lost money trying to be greedy. Hope you are able to construct your strategy without too much drama, problem is you need a strong move in some direction and plenty of time too.

Let me know how you go, maybe start a thread in the Derivatives forum if you want to do a 'follow my trade' type thread but that may be too much trouble for you since options move very fast.

BTW, good to have you back, I recall you used to be a regular in the early months of ASF, hope you can hang around!

[RichKid]

Some profit taking on high volume, next issue is that recent trendline, will it hold? Might be a strong retracement, gold up but LHG down. On the way up it was high vol on up days and low vol on down days. These last few days have been the opposite. I'm watching for a reversal but as they say, be slow to sell while a trend is in place.

[smrt-guy]

I've done pretty well out of Lihir the last couple of years, but after the landslide this year I started to have concerns. It really brought home the fact that not only is this stock unhedged (or at least comparitively so compared to other large cap operators) so feels the most impact of the gold price when it corrects, but it is a single mine operator and only needs one major incident to stop all production entirely.

While being unhedged gives it lots of upside in a bullish market I've decided it's run hard of late and now the potential risks don't justify the rewards for me at this point. I've got my funds in alternative gold stocks at the moment.

Each to their own though :)

[brerwallabi]

Time
Last Traded Price Volume
10:17:23 am $2.20 308,43O
and at 4.15pm it was $2.32 wonder how the 3% losers stacked up today, I must be wearing blinkers again. The secret is now make when do you bank the profit just make you have the stop in, but somehow this might be in the 3's if gold breaks through tonight another big jump on the cards and gold might well top $520US before it takes a dip again. Some gold bulls already calling $1000US over the next few years.
Wherever there are winners there must be losers, 97% of them, are they those who trade without a stop. I am so glad I took the stop of Lihir last week though and usually I don't this bull gold run looks good.

[RichKid]

That RIO offload has seen some dramatic action with LHG today. No reason at all now for a technical trader to be long in LHG imho as the immediate trend has broken. I've been watching the depth and big sell orders are going through, the buy order are mainly much smaller parcels so you can guess who's buying and who's selling.

Gold has pulled back, can't say if it's a temporary pullback on profit taking or the start of a larger re-retracement, I expect some sort of retest of 500 since there is still a lot of momentum in the pog- just posted an interesting article in the 'Gold- where is it heading?' thread.

[brerwallabi]

Ouch that hurt big time.

[RichKid]

Ouch that hurt big time.

It's times like this that remind us of the importance of money and risk management, nothing is accurately predictable in the stock market, as Nick Radge says in his new book the outcome is unknown and there will be a few mishaps like this from time to time but good mgmt will see us survive. Hope you get through this Brer, we all cop one from time to time, I certainly didn't see this coming (see HDR thread for possibility of same occurring there).

[phoenixrising]

Ouch all right, Rio Tinto is not on my xmas card list.

Bought $1.92, had 2atr (20 day) trailing stop on cfd
Tues close $2.35, 2atr $2.18, gold hits $500.
Wed plan is watch for gold retracement, get out if lhg price starts to tank, $2.18 at worst.
As we know in comes Rio, the gold pullback, and an ugly Dow Jones wed.
Stops are worthless in these gap situations.

Anyway didn't drop past my buy price, so in front.
Beware the big boys when they come out to play.

[RichKid]

Ouch all right, Rio Tinto is not on my xmas card list.

Bought $1.92, had 2atr (20 day) trailing stop on cfd
Tues close $2.35, 2atr $2.18, gold hits $500.
Wed plan is watch for gold retracement, get out if lhg price starts to tank, $2.18 at worst.
As we know in comes Rio, the gold pullback, and an ugly Dow Jones wed.
Stops are worthless in these gap situations.


Hi Phoenix,
Can you use Guaranteed Stop Losses (GSL) through your CFD provider? If so if you trail it do you have to pay every time you move up the price? Always a good idea when you're moving with a volatile stock using CFD's imo.

[phoenixrising]

RK,

Very slow responce, sorry.

I use Man, don't have gslo (like IG)

The 2atr trailing was part of my stratergy for the trade, not a trailing stop as such. I update my contingent orders daily manually, so no extra charges.

Agreed, care with volatile stocks needed.

Still in the trade, 2.17 atm. Seeing as I was blown out of the water I thought I'll play it by ear, so far so good.

BTW I looked at FAQ for how to reply with quoate to no avail, is it there? Not sure how to.

Thanks for the interest.

Cheers

[RichKid]

RK,

Very slow responce, sorry.

I use Man, don't have gslo (like IG)

The 2atr trailing was part of my stratergy for the trade, not a trailing stop as such. I update my contingent orders daily manually, so no extra charges.

Agreed, care with volatile stocks needed.

Still in the trade, 2.17 atm. Seeing as I was blown out of the water I thought I'll play it by ear, so far so good.

BTW I looked at FAQ for how to reply with quoate to no avail, is it there? Not sure how to.

Thanks for the interest.

Cheers

Looks like LHG may fly with the gold price going so high, glad to see you may see some more upside, good luck!
Try this link for code tips (including quotes): http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/misc.php?do=bbcode

[JetDollars]

Bloody held, lose too much money on LHG. One trade after the other. Give up on LHG now.


Hey Jet,
Gold up again, LHG pulling back a bit today but volume is high. I've learnt the hardway about not being able to constuct a strangle/straddle in time, very risky and I've lost money trying to be greedy. Hope you are able to construct your strategy without too much drama, problem is you need a strong move in some direction and plenty of time too.

Let me know how you go, maybe start a thread in the Derivatives forum if you want to do a 'follow my trade' type thread but that may be too much trouble for you since options move very fast.

BTW, good to have you back, I recall you used to be a regular in the early months of ASF, hope you can hang around!

[MalteseBull]

LHG is good to get onto now, its on the wayup!

[Ann]

Hi Guys,

Just a chart but not looking as good as it could be to me. Sorry, I am not really a bear, I just call it as I see it.....

[Ann]

Let's look at the daily gold price chart.....

If LHG reflects the price of Gold it may be in a spot of bother? Too soon to really call in my opinion.

It would need to break below that MA and the MACD would have to cross below zero.

Then anything in the gold sector may be fair game as a juicy short for those who enjoy toying with things in shorts.

[Hopeful]

LHG gave us an obvious entry on June 14th by bouncing strongly off the 200-day EMA. That price area was also an area of consolidation from Nov2005-March2006. If anyone had any interest in LHG that would have been the place to buy.

From here, if LHG goes up strongly on decent volume it will be a late entry buy, good upside, but $2.40 would have been better.

[GreatPig]

IMO, LHG is still technically in a downtrend, having posted both lower highs and lower lows. The level of the next low would determine if that is changing or not.

GP

[RichKid]

IMO, LHG is still technically in a downtrend, having posted both lower highs and lower lows. The level of the next low would determine if that is changing or not.

GP

Hi GP,
Chart looks like that of a few gold stocks atm, that support level around 2.40 is important imo (resistance becomes support). Currently in that channel your describe.

[Warren]

In this sort of environment, yes, hedging is not ideal. However, most pre-production companies needing to secure bank finance for feasibility studies etc are required by the financiers to hedge their production. The financier has no interest in the company's equity performance.

As far as which companies to hold, I think LHG is a very promising story. Its story is simple, it has 20 million ounces of JORC compliant reserves and 20 million in Resource. That is a huge resource for a company that is capitalised at just over $3.5 billion. Its main problem is that it does not produce at the appropriate scale for its resource base. It has been promising production of > 1 million ounces since it listed a decade ago but has been unable to achieve this, and as a result its cash costs are too high and it has struggled to generate significant free cash.

At the moment, the company mines around 8 million tonnes of ore per annum, but only processes about half of that, meaning it generates the costs of a an 8 million tpa company but only the revenue of a 4 mtpa company.

Now, however it has concrete plans for increasing its production rates to an initial 800koz pa. They are looking at adding an additional float and or additional autoclaves to boost production. While the autoclaves consume a lot of power, the company now has access to substantial amounts of cheap geothermal power.

I think this company can turn the corner here, and coupled with strong gold prices and little hedging should have a lot in it. I own this one.


NOTE: These are only my opinions, not financial advice or investment recommendation.

[NettAssets]

Is LHG still Overvalued?
http://i68.photobucket.com/albums/i20/johnh_charts/lhg-gld.gif

[Warren]

How do you define overvalued?

[NettAssets]

I was referring to the chart and the fact that although the share price tracked the rise in gold very closely in may the diferential widened as gold continued downward.
I will edit my post and get rid of the "still" I didn't mean to infer that it was in the past.
The change could reflect a really effective hedge book of course that locks in a higher gold price at lower levels but allows high prices to flow through - very hard to achieve in practice I think.
whoops - left it to late I can't edit it!
John

[beachbum]

LHG gave us an obvious entry on June 14th by bouncing strongly off the 200-day EMA. That price area was also an area of consolidation from Nov2005-March2006. If anyone had any interest in LHG that would have been the place to buy.

From here, if LHG goes up strongly on decent volume it will be a late entry buy, good upside, but $2.40 would have been better.

It's easy in hindsight to say 2.40 was a great entry but we don't know that is the bottom yet. Yes it will be a great entry if prices continue to rise but I'm with Great Pig and will wait for confirmation of the break in downtrend. Oh how great it would be if we picked the exact bottom for everything.Price doesn't always stop at the 200MA.
Hope it does keep going as I will then be on board with appropriate stop.

Cheers

[michael_selway]

How do you define overvalued?

Hm how high do u think Gold prices can go, and what prices do u think Gold can be sustained indefinitely?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 1.0 9.1 14.9 13.3
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 2.9

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-12-06 9.1 30.1 776.0%
Year Ending 30-12-07 14.9 18.4 63.7%

thx

MS

[stockmaster]

I predict gold price can reach 650 in 3 months of time.
LHG - 3.00 - 3.20 in 1 month

[Warren]

How high can gold prices go?? How long is a piece of string? All depends on supply and demand and the activity of speculators. Gold is generally considered a safe-haven investment and is generally subject to greater demand under the following conditions:

1. Declining US Dollar - while the dollar is currently supported by rising US interest rates, the enormous current account deficits that require financing suggest the dollar is due for depreciation.
2. Rising global inflation (esp expectations)
3. Geopolitical concerns (eg terrorism)
4. Global jewellery demand
5. rising oil prices relative to gold - gold becomes a more attractive investment relative to oil. Also, rising oil prices can flow through to inflation and inflation expectations.

Supply on the other hand is more difficult to estimate. Factors affecting supply generally relate to:

1. Central Bank gold sales
2. New mine commissioning.

Currently, economics seem to be favoring a rise in gold prices given rising inflation, rising oil prices etc. Supply shortages should support the gold price.

How far it goes if at all is anyone's guess.

[dubiousinfo]

Interim results out today. Seems brokers have been expecting earnings for the full year to Dec 06 to be 0.09c / Shr. Interim results to Jun 06 shows earnings of 0.018c / Shr. While the 2nd half should be better its hard to see them reaching the broker forcasts. Full year earnings of 0.05c / Shr seem more likely.

[nizar]

Interim results out today. Seems brokers have been expecting earnings for the full year to Dec 06 to be 0.09c / Shr. Interim results to Jun 06 shows earnings of 0.018c / Shr. While the 2nd half should be better its hard to see them reaching the broker forcasts. Full year earnings of 0.05c / Shr seem more likely.

Maybe so but historically, when gold is going up, theres nothing better to hold than LHG

[dubiousinfo]

Still its not a great way to kick off the reporting season. Let's hope RIO posts better results on Thursday

[kennas]

1157 [Dow Jones] STOCK CALL: Advisory firm Fat Prophets says Lihir Gold (LHG.AU) can eventually beat A$3.64 record high in May, notes though LHG has had "an unhappy knack of disappointing investors." Last A$3.02, up 5 cents. Downside limited for LHG, chart support at A$2.66 and A$2.50 "with the June low of A$2.34 underpinning the shares, in our opinion." Adds gold will in time trade above US$1,000/ounce vs about US$649 now. (IGP)

[kennas]

Looks to be forming a giant wedge and if my naked eye is correct is sitting at about a 50% retractment from the $3.50 high and from the Mar 20 start of it's latest run.

Gold consolidating between $620 and $650, which way will it break? Hmmmm. Being a long term gold bull, I'm thinking north.

[kennas]

Chart:

[NettAssets]

Trust it does break north - I am sitting on a Bull put which is in assignment territory if it goes south any further.

Nearly bought it back tonight but will give it another day - I dont think early assignment is a worry yet.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

You poor bugger Netassets (John).

[NettAssets]

Yeah it did hurt a bit :banghead: and the MM's weren't doing any favours with selling back puts!
Oh well thems the breaks no where near the max loss.
but we where so near to clear last night.
serve me right for trying to skin the MM's for a cent yesterday and then complaining when they get me by five today.
John

[NettAssets]

wonder if I should post me avatar upside down?

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Yeah it did hurt a bit :banghead: and the MM's weren't doing any favours with selling back puts!
Oh well thems the breaks no where near the max loss.
but we where so near to clear last night.
serve me right for trying to skin the MM's for a cent yesterday and then complaining when they get me by five today.
John

It was the market that did for you today, not a good day. My pick for the day SDL, ran out of steam, just no volume around.

[kennas]

LHG still heading towards a point which looks to be 50% from high after it's break up earlier in the year. Pinned to POG perhaps, yes, but maybe it's a summary of gold as well.....Perhaps coming to a turning point. Either a step down or up. Would be interesting to get a Wave theorists to plot the current situ.

[NettAssets]

My :2twocents

By looking at the last weeks trading I think some players where trying to keep it under three dollars for options expiry yesterday.
I would expect it to break out upward this morning.
Up a cent now in a weak start on the market.
If it closes tonight above $3.05 I will take my theory as fact! there is not enough upside in the POG for that to be the reason.
John

[kennas]

$3.05 will take it just through the resistance level of the triangle, but $3.10 will confirm upward momentum I think. Hope you're right John. I like LHG as a long term pick anyway, even though there's considerable country risk.

If gold going back through $650, and beyond, LHG is a great unhedged stock to have, and it's stated to be acquiitive, or could be a target of a major.

[grunt]

i hope your right kennas because i chucked the house keys on this one (2.92). i am very sure the up side of gold will push lhg to new highs pretty soon.

[NettAssets]

Looks like I was very wrong on my reading of this one.

Gold hasn't backed off all that much but LHG can't get its butt out of bed


John

[kennas]

POG still vulnerable short term I reckon, until hurricane season really kicks in and Iran launches a few nukes at Israel. Well, looks like doing it any way. Peace is only a temporary thing in the Middle East. The next oil disruption is just around the corner, sending prices higher and further fears of economic downturn, recession, US$ collapse, POG up, up, and away....LHG up, up, and away. Usual one mine risks, blah blah..

[kennas]

Lows are getting higher and highs are getting lower......

Need to just watch for when it breaks either way. Bullish is above $3.12, bearish under $2.74, imo.

[grunt]

upward breakout fri or mon.a bit of georges crazy sabre ratling should do the trick.

[NettAssets]

Yeah

Glutton for punishment Ive gone long again
couldn't pick the target last time though so Ive gone for calls instead of puts. the IV was a bit better buying too.
John

[Tekmann]

Hey Kennas,

Nice to see my chart is same as yours, confirming a breakout one way or the other...?????

[nizar]

POG still vulnerable short term I reckon, until hurricane season really kicks in and Iran launches a few nukes at Israel. Well, looks like doing it any way. Peace is only a temporary thing in the Middle East. The next oil disruption is just around the corner, sending prices higher and further fears of economic downturn, recession, US$ collapse, POG up, up, and away....LHG up, up, and away. Usual one mine risks, blah blah..

kennas,

if there is an economic recession, global stockmarkets will collapse, and regardless of the price of gold, do u really think gold stocks will be spared ?

[rederob]

LHG: buy alert.
Breakout of symmetrical triangle will become evident today and gold prices will keep this stock heading for a plus$4 finish line in a few months.

[kennas]

kennas,

if there is an economic recession, global stockmarkets will collapse, and regardless of the price of gold, do u really think gold stocks will be spared ?

Well, maybe I'm wrong Nizar, but golds 'safe haven' status seems alive and well to me. You only need to watch the POG everytime something dramatic happens around the world. Or, am I wrong, and it does nothing? When US$ crashes aren't world banks going to be putting their money into gold and Euros?

[kennas]

kennas,

if there is an economic recession, global stockmarkets will collapse, and regardless of the price of gold, do u really think gold stocks will be spared ?

Fuel to my fire:

2319 GMT [Dow Jones] Spot gold at $626.40/oz, +90 cents on NY close and remaining on front foot after overnight safe haven gains on concerns over Iran nuke issue, with modest oil rise adding some inflation-fighting support, as did 3-month high silver, base metal uptick. Expected to find resistance from current levels strengthening to 100-day moving average at $632, says ScotiaMocatta; adds "the metal needs to close above 632 dollars in order to start forcing the bears to cover their positions." (JAD)

[nizar]

Well, maybe I'm wrong Nizar, but golds 'safe haven' status seems alive and well to me. You only need to watch the POG everytime something dramatic happens around the world. Or, am I wrong, and it does nothing? When US$ crashes aren't world banks going to be putting their money into gold and Euros?

I agree very much that the price of gold will increase in times of geopolitical tensions or due to any fall in USD. Agree 100%. What im saying though, is if gold price rises but GLOBAL STOCKMARKETS crash (as u mentioned in your previous post in which my initial reply was to) then gold STOCKS will also tumble as stocks will be sold off NON-SELECTIVELY

Or do u really think that while XJO crumbles, that becoz price of gold rises, then LHG and other goldies will fire?

Recession means that there will less demand for the metal itself so thats why i think if there is a recession globally then stockmarkets will generally fall and even gold stocks will not be spared

Thoughts?

[kennas]

I agree very much that the price of gold will increase in times of geopolitical tensions or due to any fall in USD. Agree 100%. What im saying though, is if gold price rises but GLOBAL STOCKMARKETS crash (as u mentioned in your previous post in which my initial reply was to) then gold STOCKS will also tumble as stocks will be sold off NON-SELECTIVELY

Or do u really think that while XJO crumbles, that becoz price of gold rises, then LHG and other goldies will fire?

Recession means that there will less demand for the metal itself so thats why i think if there is a recession globally then stockmarkets will generally fall and even gold stocks will not be spared

Thoughts?

Probably depends on the severity and how widespread the recession is. Worst case recession/depression, I agree, everything will be smashed. There will be much reduced demand. Chindians will still be buying probably. And the Italians. :)

[kennas]

LHG looks to be breaking up now. Up 3+% to $3.09 now.

Probably tracking gold a bit, which was up overnight, but I have noticed that LHG is a bit of a barometer on the market sentiment for the POG. Perhaps punters are tipping POG to be on the rise.

Could be just the Iran thing too, whcih could blow over shortly. Or, blow up!

[scsl]

upward breakout fri or mon.a bit of georges crazy sabre ratling should do the trick.
I have to admit grunt, you picked that one pretty well! It was quite fascinating to witness the effectiveness of the technical and charting analysis that followed his post which saw several of you in unison as to the future direction of the sp. I have bought into OXR already and LHG now looks quite convincing, particularly if it can continue to rise and hold this level.

Any thoughts on where LHG is headed?

Cheers,
scsl

[grunt]

I'll stick my neck out and say $4 by the end of the month.That's based on similar breakouts moving up by 30 to 40%.Also waiting for gold to break out of the same pennet to be sure.Crazy George is pretty reliable in stirring the pot and pushing the price of gold(deficet-afganistan-iraq-nth korea-iran-syria-etc etc etc). Kennas will probaly have a better forcast on this-he's definately more acurate than me.

[NettAssets]

it really seems to be in for the long haul

Has cleared the minor resistance at 3.13 OK now has only a bit of turbulence from the gap down between 3.35 and 3.50.

can it find a new high before month end?

NA

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

it really seems to be in for the long haul

Has cleared the minor resistance at 3.13 OK now has only a bit of turbulence from the gap down between 3.35 and 3.50.

can it find a new high before month end?

NA

Nope.

[NettAssets]

Sussinct.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Sussinct.

BSG when you last talked about LHG a few weeks back and PNA at its POR last week (already tried and tested the week before).

Profits realised would equate to LHG's SP at $3.75, in a third of the timeframe.

Strong stocks are the ones that spike with volume or buck the market trend.

LHG has awful spikes and chronic sideways action, why trade it.

As for your quote?, whats it mean.

[NettAssets]

Sussinct ? That would mean short and to the point

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Sussinct ? That would mean short and to the point

O.K., as you probably figured I've traded LHG. I was stuck in for nearly three weeks to make a crappy 5%. BSG I'm in long and its proven to be a much better punt than LHG.

[NettAssets]

probably right - Im trading this with options so the leverage is a bit better.
Up 19% since the 24th when I took a bath with the bull puts.
I will put a no retrace trailing stop on at 20% if it gets there.
Wish there was an easy way to do it but I have to follow the action manually.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

probably right - Im trading this with options so the leverage is a bit better.
Up 19% since the 24th when I took a bath with the bull puts.
I will put a no retrace trailing stop on at 20% if it gets there.
Wish there was an easy way to do it but I have to follow the action manually.

O.K., as before all the best John.

[jovialTrader]

LHG merged with Ballarat Gold. What effect will this have on the SP?

A good time for such an announcement esp. the price of commodities are higher overnite...

A good day...

JT

[bvbfan]

Bearish it seems, unless BGF starts rising, arbitrage players will sell LHG and buy BGF well there were today it seems.

[Mofra]

This news could be the panacea for ST/MT for LHG, to have it finally travel outside of its recent range.

It seems LHG have made a strategic direction to enhance their reserve & production capacity however at the same time the fundies will probably include some development risk in thier calculations of what they believe to be the intrinsic value on the stock.

Some of us care less of the direction than the opportunity to have another highly volatile code with relatively liquid ETOs running with it ;)

[The Mint Man]

hey people,
I have been away for 2 weeks ...... over this short time LHG had gone up to around $3.10 and back down under $2.80 (currently at $2.74) they had also announced a merger.
A bit seems to be going on at LHG lately.

So my question is,
short, medium and long term - where do you see LHG heading and why?

cheers

[kennas]

hey people,
I have been away for 2 weeks ...... over this short time LHG had gone up to around $3.10 and back down under $2.80 (currently at $2.74) they had also announced a merger.
A bit seems to be going on at LHG lately.

So my question is,
short, medium and long term - where do you see LHG heading and why?

cheers

Short term pain bedding down BGF, which I personally think was a mistake. What do they need a crummy 1.3m oz for. They should have bought EMP, or OGD, or even BDG after the recent sharp fall.

Medium to long term winner. Will be back above $3.00 in not too distant future once gold recovers.

(Note: author is a long term gold bull :) )

[The Mint Man]

What do they need a crummy 1.3m oz for
I actually thought the same, however they are claiming a 9Moz potential. what do you make of that?

[kennas]

I actually thought the same, however they are claiming a 9Moz potential. what do you make of that?

I really hope there is 9m in there but I reckon 9m is a complete pluck.

BGF don't know how much is in there due to the 'nuggety' nature of the mineralisation. It could be anything between 1.3 and 20 m for all anyone knows.

Now, 20m would be nice!

I wouldn't be surprised if LHG buy something else shortly. With the cash they are now generating they have the potential to become a multi mine company. Hopefully they pick something I already own next time. :)

[sleeper88]

well i think LHG made the wrong decision in picking BGF, it prove very costly to them :(

[Mofra]

well i think LHG made the wrong decision in picking BGF, it prove very costly to them :(
Costly in what way?

No further financial details are available, unless you're talkign about the share price - and I dare say executives don't make such large decisions based on the ST share price.

[kennas]

I've got a gut feeling (very well researched and qualified opinion) that LHG is going to turn the corner shortly. I think the market is starting to factor in a lower $US after the US mid term elections which (in theory) will result in a stronger gold price. I've been reading a few reports around saying this is going to happen, and therefore, of course, will. Maybe. :)

LHG has been bouncing from support and resistance lines over the past 6 months with each time it hits the BB on either side bounces off. It's just hit the bottom, plus the 200d MA, plus is on a significant support line. Even with the (what I think) negativities surrounding the BGF bail out, I reckon it's going to bounce up, and by the time it is getting to the next resistance level, it'll be around the time POG should be rising in response to $US sell off. This will be the catalyst to send LHG though previous resistance and on to all time highs in Dec/Jan.

Well, that's my attempt to be Yogi. I don't normally like putting time frames on things, but I've just got this feeling.........he, he.

[dubiousinfo]

The biggest drawback that faces Lihir is its management. Despite this I will continue to hold as the market just seems to love this stock when POG moves, plus I think there is still a chance of a takeover.

[kennas]

Big volume on LHG this am. Bouncing. he he. :)

[kennas]

Good ann from LHG this am. Possibly the first time they haven't come out with some bad news.....market should like that. Gold up $6.00 too should see it up a few % I reckon.

[spitrader1]

Good ann from LHG this am. Possibly the first time they haven't come out with some bad news.....market should like that. Gold up $6.00 too should see it up a few % I reckon.
whats good about it??

[spitrader1]

I've got a gut feeling (very well researched and qualified opinion) that LHG is going to turn the corner shortly. I think the market is starting to factor in a lower $US after the US mid term elections which (in theory) will result in a stronger gold price. I've been reading a few reports around saying this is going to happen, and therefore, of course, will. Maybe. :)

LHG has been bouncing from support and resistance lines over the past 6 months with each time it hits the BB on either side bounces off. It's just hit the bottom, plus the 200d MA, plus is on a significant support line. Even with the (what I think) negativities surrounding the BGF bail out, I reckon it's going to bounce up, and by the time it is getting to the next resistance level, it'll be around the time POG should be rising in response to $US sell off. This will be the catalyst to send LHG though previous resistance and on to all time highs in Dec/Jan.

Well, that's my attempt to be Yogi. I don't normally like putting time frames on things, but I've just got this feeling.........he, he.

well done on a great chart....im looking at big charts now, the chart that you have here, do you pay for that or just use the free service

[kennas]

whats good about it??

I thought it was because they were confirming a lot of previous guidance, which they normally don't do. Normally, they say problem 1, problem 2, etc resulting in lower output. By what they said I thought it was all good, but by the reports I've read on the ann since, seems it's not so good. sp down accordingly.

[kennas]

well done on a great chart....im looking at big charts now, the chart that you have here, do you pay for that or just use the free service

The base chart is free, with the basic indicators. (macd, volume, etc) To draw on it you need to save it as a giff file and then open with paint. Draw on the chart and then save as giff again, then post onto the site.

[professor_frink]

The base chart is free, with the basic indicators. (macd, volume, etc) To draw on it you need to save it as a giff file and then open with paint. Draw on the chart and then save as giff again, then post onto the site.
Wouldn't it be a whole lot easier to go out and get some charting software Kennas? Doing what you've just described must take an awful long time!

[kennas]

Wouldn't it be a whole lot easier to go out and get some charting software Kennas? Doing what you've just described must take an awful long time!

Probably. I like doing it though. It's fun. :)

Doesn't take me too long now. Makes me look at the charts more critically too.

[kennas]

Fat Prophets came out with a buy on this last night, but UBS downgraded them.

0850 [Dow Jones]STOCK CALL: UBS downgrades Lihir Gold (LHG.AU) to neutral from buy on lower production and rising costs. UBS slashes FY06 earnings forecast by 43% on lower production and FY07 and FY08 by 18% on lower gold forecasts. Says lowering of production forecast could halt the momentum the company has gained from finally meeting targets. "We do not expect to see Lihir outperform its gold peers in the near term," UBS says. Reduces price target to A$3.40 from A$3.80. (APW)

Still price target $3.40 v current $2.75. Enough room for me.

LHG hitting 200d ma, which indicates a reason to top up. Still sitting on pretty strong support line with not too much down side if gold stays steady. Resistance a bit choppy/mixed. Can't see a real downward trend now, although my eyes might be biased. :)

[spitrader1]

Fat Prophets came out with a buy on this last night, but UBS downgraded them.

0850 [Dow Jones]STOCK CALL: UBS downgrades Lihir Gold (LHG.AU) to neutral from buy on lower production and rising costs. UBS slashes FY06 earnings forecast by 43% on lower production and FY07 and FY08 by 18% on lower gold forecasts. Says lowering of production forecast could halt the momentum the company has gained from finally meeting targets. "We do not expect to see Lihir outperform its gold peers in the near term," UBS says. Reduces price target to A$3.40 from A$3.80. (APW)

Still price target $3.40 v current $2.75. Enough room for me.

LHG hitting 200d ma, which indicates a reason to top up. Still sitting on pretty strong support line with not too much down side if gold stays steady. Resistance a bit choppy/mixed. Can't see a real downward trend now, although my eyes might be biased. :)

good info kennas. i bought in yesterday at 2.75 for the record

[kennas]

good info kennas. i bought in yesterday at 2.75 for the record

Yeah, I just picked up a few more at $2.73.

[spitrader1]

Yeah, I just picked up a few more at $2.73.
nice little move from 73 kennas (lhg now at 2.80)...good buying.

[spitrader1]

nice little move from 73 kennas (lhg now at 2.80)...good buying.
should be a good day kennas with gold at 620 (8 week high) for the LHG faithfull

[Tekmann]

Hi Guys,

Bit of a Green question...

Even though gold is up, which has been some time since last this high, will the dow being down near 50pts hold lhg back and moreso the xjo dragging lhg down.

I have seen both seneraios played out with opposite outcomes, hence my q.


Thanks
Tekmann

[spitrader1]

Hi Guys,

Bit of a Green question...

Even though gold is up, which has been some time since last this high, will the dow being down near 50pts hold lhg back and moreso the xjo dragging lhg down.

I have seen both seneraios played out with opposite outcomes, hence my q.


Thanks
Tekmann
have a look at what BHP and RIO and the other mining stocks did over night. the dow has little effect on our mining stocks...you see almost every day we buck the trend.

[kennas]

Hi Guys,

Bit of a Green question...

Even though gold is up, which has been some time since last this high, will the dow being down near 50pts hold lhg back and moreso the xjo dragging lhg down.

I have seen both seneraios played out with opposite outcomes, hence my q.

Thanks
Tekmann

I see money going out of general market and into gold, uranium and still zinc. Maybe. XJO only down slightly really. On the other hand traders will be itching for a reason to take profits very soon. Perhaps a downdraft anywhere will be an excuse. Hhhmm, is that on the fence enough. :confused:

[Tekmann]

Thanks for the take on LHG Guys

[spitrader1]

Thanks for the take onLHG Guys
even though at the moment, its horribly wrong.

[Tekmann]

even though at the moment, its horribly wrong.

Yeah it is, but I know what you guys said made good sense, even though the market doesn't always make sense.

Or we would ALL be rich.. :D and their would be no workers.... :banghead:

[spitrader1]

Yeah it is, but I know what you guys said made good sense, even though the market doesn't always make sense.

Or we would ALL be rich.. :D and their would be no workers.... :banghead:
correct, if the market was logical, we would be millionares

[scsl]

I see money going out of general market and into gold, uranium and still zinc. Maybe. XJO only down slightly really. On the other hand traders will be itching for a reason to take profits very soon. Perhaps a downdraft anywhere will be an excuse. Hhhmm, is that on the fence enough. :confused:
Could it possibly be that investors and traders in Australia are fearing a pull-back in the Dow? Because that's what is really holding me back from buying into stocks. But then again, everytime I've expected one, the Dow just keeps going up. :(

[kennas]

Could it possibly be that investors and traders in Australia are fearing a pull-back in the Dow? Because that's what is really holding me back from buying into stocks. But then again, everytime I've expected one, the Dow just keeps going up. :(

I think so. The world has had a great run the past month or so. Will be looking for reasons to take profits.

[Mofra]

It is important to remember LHG is more influence by the POG than by the movement of the rest of the market, a situation which will only reinforce itself by the gradual reduction in LHG's hedgebook. I'm sure a number of people will be happy to hold some exposure to the POG given the current political climate.

[kennas]

Lihir had every excuse to be dumped yesterday along with everything else, but tested $3.00 again, and once again, failed. Done the same this morning. Just can't crack it. I've got the feeling that it will soon as it has some momentum with it. After $3.00, $3.10 is an important medium term resistance line, that if it breaks should keep heading on north. Probably needs POG to be going through $640 is for that to occur as I've mentioned somewhere before...

[spitrader1]

Lihir had every excuse to be dumped yesterday along with everything else, but tested $3.00 again, and once again, failed. Done the same this morning. Just can't crack it. I've got the feeling that it will soon as it has some momentum with it. After $3.00, $3.10 is an important medium term resistance line, that if it breaks should keep heading on north. Probably needs POG to be going through $640 is for that to occur as I've mentioned somewhere before...
at least we were right when we bought some at 2.75 kennas. unfortunately i ditched them soon after.

[kennas]

at least we were right when we bought some at 2.75 kennas. unfortunately i ditched them soon after.

'Any profit's a good profit', :) don't you crazy brokers say? One of the first things my little bro (broker) told me. I use that psychology to assist when I make the blunder of not letting profits run, whatever that means!

[spitrader1]

'Any profit's a good profit', :) don't you crazy brokers say? One of the first things my little bro (broker) told me. I use that psychology to assist when I make the blunder of not letting profits run, whatever that means!
its so hard to take a stock off ure watchlist, even if you dont have a position in it. Its the age old mistake of falling in love with a stock. Its one of the biggest traps around.

[kennas]

LHG is scared of $3.00. :(

[kennas]

Very scared of $3.00!! What's going on LHG? Gold is steady! It's not copper! You are a gold company!!!! You should therefore be steady, or going to where the POG is going - UP!!! Eventually. Well, that's not confirmed yet, we still need to keep above $620.

This chart is starting to infuriate me. Aaaahhhh! It's tracking up, down, sideways and no where at the moment. All you can predict is that it's going to range bewteen support and resistance lines. Then when it breaks through one for a moment, it goes back to another.

Hopefully $2.85 proves to be support as it should. It spent a few days trying to crack it recently, which should now bw support.

[Mofra]

Very scared of $3.00!! What's going on LHG? Gold is steady! It's not copper! You are a gold company!!!! You should therefore be steady, or going to where the POG is going - UP!!!
It does seem to be a very well entrenched ST resistance line - LHG could be shaping up as a classic volume dirven breakout - might trumpet a move a day or two prior to a serious movement, to be exaserbated by people trading the pennant break.

[zed327]

Kennas i believe the last wiggle in the tail before the enevitable break-out occurs. My estimation is within the next 10 day's.Using the narrowing trianguler pattern that has formed using mid febuary's low and may's high to today's present price looks pretty clear on what about to happen. I believe it will break upwards but that is because i'm a very bullish on gold ( even more so on silver ). I don't hold lhg at the moment but it is looking very good for those that do.

[The Mint Man]

Considering POG has come down under $620, how do you see LHG fairing over the next week or so?
Ive got my eye on them real close just waiting for them to come down a bit more then I'll buy..... Should have just bought at $2.72 2 weeks ago :banghead:

cheers

[kennas]

Considering POG has come down under $620, how do you see LHG fairing over the next week or so?
Ive got my eye on them real close just waiting for them to come down a bit more then I'll buy..... Should have just bought at $2.72 2 weeks ago :banghead:

cheers
Still might be a chance to get in there at around $2.70 MM. I'd wait and see where it goes for the minute. POG needs to get back above $620 for LHG to keep climbing. The support lines seen on the LHG chart are good points to be buying in the short term. (And selling at the resistance lines!) Gold hasn't started a new uptrend IMO yet so might be worth waiting. Just my opinion though. There's lots of opinions out there that gold is heading down, just need to balance them all out and make your own call.

[Out Too Soon]

This looks interesting, I don't hold but as you say Kennas "it all depends on the POG". If Gold does start to climb again I'm sure to be too late getting some Lihir. I'll watch for $2.7-something & gold price action. :o

[The Mint Man]

Just didnt reach what I wanted to buy at... :sly:
Anyone got some Chart Analysis on this? Golds at $628 atm.... spose Ill wait up to another week or so to see what happens

cheers :D

[kennas]

One thing you can count on: LHG bounces off the 200d am. Unusually high early volume today. I think punters are punting that gold is heading on up...

[kennas]

Gold through $640, LHG through $3.00. More good new for gold tonight ($US weakness) and we'll find LHG hitting the sweet spot at about $3.10 which will be launch time, and Chicken will be backing his bloody truck up for this one. ;)

Having said that, I am not counting my chickens yet, as LHG has continued to disappoint me. Every time it gets to and almost through a resistance line it fails me. :mad:

I have been saying for a little while that $3,10 is the critical level though. Gets through that and the balance of probs say it's in an uptrend again. I hope. :)

[kennas]

Time for LHG to fail me..... Broken through the magic $3.10 mark, for the minute. Gapped up quite a bit. Can it sustain the rage. POG obviously the driver and I think it's in a new uptrend now. Onwards to $3.50 again hopefully.

[scsl]

Time for LHG to fail me..... Broken through the magic $3.10 mark, for the minute. Gapped up quite a bit. Can it sustain the rage. POG obviously the driver and I think it's in a new uptrend now. Onwards to $3.50 again hopefully.
Kennas, do you see LHG's decline in sp throughout the day as being in line with the gradual decline in the overall market? Or is LHG's recent strong run losing puff? And looking at your chart, will LHG sell off to about $2.90 - $3.00? I guess it all comes down to the gold price... which has had a near perfect diagonal rise since October 5. It will all depend on the factors you mentioned in the gold price thread.

[justjohn]

for what it is worth :2twocents i think it was a combination of POG & sliding market :confused:

[kennas]

Kennas, do you see LHG's decline in sp throughout the day as being in line with the gradual decline in the overall market? Or is LHG's recent strong run losing puff? And looking at your chart, will LHG sell off to about $2.90 - $3.00? I guess it all comes down to the gold price... which has had a near perfect diagonal rise since October 5. It will all depend on the factors you mentioned in the gold price thread.
Just opened a bit strongly I think. The gap up has been filled now and it still finished up 1 % on the day. POG finished down slightly after almost touching $650 ($649 I think) so could go anywhere Monday. Might depend on other economic data. While it holds over $3.00 I'm more bullish on it, clearing $3.10 ish, and holding above is very important. Previous strong resistance, both horizontal and down trend IMO.

[kennas]

for what it is worth :2twocents i think it was a combination of POG & sliding market :confused:
POG was OK I thought, but overall market would have taken the shine off it.

[nizar]

Just opened a bit strongly I think.


This is just how LHG moves.
I remember back in April/May, when gold would tack on like us$10/oz (over the weekends this was common), LHG would open up 3-4% higher but that as it. It would close around the same levels. You wouldnt make money off it intraday.

I remember after watching a few weekends of this movement and i thought hey heres an idea, next friday i would buy maybe 50k worth of LHGs, and sell it on the monday, make about 2k (an easy 2k). Luckily i didnt coz thats when the correction started and i wouldve got taken to the cleaners! :eek:

[kennas]

This is breakout material now IMO. Holding above $3.10 which is the resistance point, and now trading at $3.15, which is my confirmation. Been there just for 2 days, so if it's there tomorrow, it's official to me! I'm topping up again.

All time high is my target before Christmas maybe. $US going down, and traditionally gold goes up in the lead in to Christmas apparantly.

[vert]

sure is kennas i jumped back on this morning after leaving lhg alone for a while, looks to be back to its old self and everyones favorite.

would love to see it go to all times by chrissy, mmmm lots of turkey and beer

[scsl]

This is breakout material now IMO. Holding above $3.10 which is the resistance point, and now trading at $3.15, which is my confirmation. Been there just for 2 days, so if it's there tomorrow, it's official to me! I'm topping up again.

All time high is my target before Christmas maybe. $US going down, and traditionally gold goes up in the lead in to Christmas apparantly.
Has held above yesterday's close of $3.17 for majority of the day now, with above average volume of 26 million so far.

Have you been topping up kennas? Also, would you mind giving your thoughts on the BSG thread?

Thanks a lot,
scsl

[kennas]

Has held above yesterday's close of $3.17 for majority of the day now, with above average volume of 26 million so far.

Have you been topping up kennas? Also, would you mind giving your thoughts on the BSG thread?

Thanks a lot,
scsl
Sorry mate been on the road today and haven't been here. Will catch up tomorrow. cheers.

[kennas]

If I may indulge for a moment and display all the resitance lines that LHG has recently broken through to get to where it is today. Probably qualifies as an outstanding breakout alert due to the amount of resistance this has had to break to get to it's current sp.

Having said that, will just take something abnormal for this to be crunched, like POG massive smashing overnight, or a mud slide on the island etc. So, nothing is ever certain, but technical traders will certainly be jumping all over this baby now.

:)

[2020hindsight]

rats lol - I tried to buy in at 3.21 - mustve got to the market at 4.00.01 pm ;) (that's my 4000 shares buy sitting there lol)
see what happens tonight i guess. I can still pull out of that buy instruction I guess must watch tonight I guess. :2twocents

On the subject of buying gold at the moment - one would think that the Democrats taking both houses of washington politics - that the threat of USA going to war is surely reduced ?? :2twocents

Maybe I'll pull the plug on that order first thing after all - (b4 market opens).

[kennas]

rats lol - I tried to buy in at 3.21 - mustve got to the market at 4.00.01 pm ;) (that's my 4000 shares buy sitting there lol)
see what happens tonight i guess. I can still pull out of that buy instruction I guess must watch tonight I guess. :2twocents

On the subject of buying gold at the moment - one would think that the Democrats taking both houses of washington politics - that the threat of USA going to war is surely reduced ?? :2twocents

Maybe I'll pull the plug on that order first thing after all - (b4 market opens).
2020, It still could pull back in the next couple of days, but this recent action has meant that 'technically' it can now push though the previous strong resistance more easily. Still a chance to catch it on the next inevitable dip.

[kennas]

Gold falling under $640 but LHG holds up. It actually went up when POG went down. Unheard of. Well, maybe now and then, but this is great for LHG holders. Very short term support maybe building at $3.20 with $3.10 looking like a possible longer term line.

As always, pending unusual events around the place.... :)

Who sold under $2.90?? :p:

Settle kennas, early days in gold re-emergence.

[coyotte]

Some unresolved GAPS in both charts

US Volume do's not seem to be keeping relative pace with Ozz and they are supposed to be the ones with the $$$$ problems not us ???


Smell a rat here !

Cheers

[scsl]

ABN Amro are very bullish on LHG, with the breakout of the pennant being called 'a golden breakout' - see their chart on the link below. They look at it in terms of Fibonacci.

I exited my long LHG CFDs today at $3.24, as I think there'll be a pullback pretty soon. As kennas said, the next inevitable dip will be when I'll be going long again.

(dated Dec 5th)
http://www.egoli.com.au/egoli/egoliWarrantsPage.asp?PageID=%7BC9020A58-44AD-482F-ADEC-0968F1C987AC%7D

[vert]

i jumped ship yesterday at 3.20 on cfd, thought gold had a nice gain and would consolidate, didnt expect lhg to run like it did today but now think pog is confirming my sale, should be able to get back in at a lower price in next couple days.

[kennas]

i jumped ship yesterday at 3.20 on cfd, thought gold had a nice gain and would consolidate, didnt expect lhg to run like it did today but now think pog is confirming my sale, should be able to get back in at a lower price in next couple days.

Good move, looks like gold taking a break in line with $US recovery. Wonder how long that will last? LHG should come off accordingly too, unless the punters are still very optomistic the gold bull is back. Some might think this a buying opportunity.

[coyotte]

POG ,HUI, XAU, TSX, and GOX all UP !

LIHR 3 consecertive days with a LOWER CLOSE !

[kennas]

POG ,HUI, XAU, TSX, and GOX all UP !

LIHR 3 consecertive days with a LOWER CLOSE !
Had a good run the past month Coyotte. Just consolidating imo. Still reliant on gold.

My Kitco chart has gold going down the past 3 trading days?? Those 3 days maybe coincide with LHG dropping... Gold only recovered a bit last night.

Here is the 3 days before last night:

[vert]

back in close yesterday, paying off nicely now 3.17. gold has had a little sell off now going for break off 650 and then 700 by christmas, thats my call anyway.
:D

[kennas]

back in close yesterday, paying off nicely now 3.17. gold has had a little sell off now going for break off 650 and then 700 by christmas, thats my call anyway.
:D
Well, I'll hold you to that. I'm tipping $650. Whoever is closer is owed a beer for every dollar closer!

[vert]

your on! :D

[justjohn]

starting to look value at $3 :p:

[coyotte]

it will be better value at 2.92 ( gap filled )

Cheers

[kennas]

$3.00 turning into very good support. Might not get it under that in the near future. Pending surprises.

[Dr Doom]

Something about to happen with LHG?. Solid support today on good volume in light of pullback in POG. An attractive takeover target again??

[kennas]

Something about to happen with LHG?. Solid support today on good volume in light of pullback in POG. An attractive takeover target again??
I was thinking the same thing Doom. 10 mil shares traded and the stock holding up on an $11 slide in POG. The stock was up a percent this am....Extremely unusual for LHG, it normally tracks POG. Not sure about a takeover though due to the BGF thingy. Makes it look less attractive to me.

[Dr Doom]

kennas, I reckon the BGF merger is a big positive as it spreads the risk around, LHG will not be a one mine entity anymore. Any costs will be well and truly absorbed with the coming gold price appreciation.
If anything, it makes it more attractive as a takeover target as any suitor will get 2 mines without any of the paperwork etc.
LHG is showing solid support around $3.00, as is the gold price around $615. I am getting a strange feeling that something is going to happen soon that will put a rocket under the POG. Get set and hold on for the ride :D

[kennas]

kennas, I reckon the BGF merger is a big positive as it spreads the risk around, LHG will not be a one mine entity anymore. Any costs will be well and truly absorbed with the coming gold price appreciation.
If anything, it makes it more attractive as a takeover target as any suitor will get 2 mines without any of the paperwork etc.
LHG is showing solid support around $3.00, as is the gold price around $615. I am getting a strange feeling that something is going to happen soon that will put a rocket under the POG. Get set and hold on for the ride :D
I'll be topping up on this if POG does make it's way back over $640. That has been my trigger for a while. It didn't hold above long enough last push....

[Dr Doom]

Looks like a false breakout (again :banghead: ). Although it could be oversold a bit as POG is back past $625 tonight, so if it holds this session we could see LHG make a comeback on Monday. Back to the bottom of the channel. Next attempt at $3.25 should be interesting.

[chops_a_must]

Anyone else seriously considering shorting this one tomorrow?

[coyotte]

Anyone else seriously considering shorting this one tomorrow?

After the 3.16 gap is filled

Closed my SHORT @ the 2.92 Gap
see post 188

Cheers

[kennas]

Anyone else seriously considering shorting this one tomorrow?
I have, but I think I will wait to see how POG responds to the $600 mark. Some traders might see this as a buying opportunity. Maybe. If it breaks $600 then LHG will be vulnerable of course. Will open gap down Monday, but I'm not sure if it will continue to slide after that. Might depend how POG opens in Asia??

[chops_a_must]

After the 3.16 gap is filled

Closed my SHORT @ the 2.92 Gap
see post 188

Cheers
Still might go further though. Lower gold price and the SP not anywhere near clear support.

[Dr Doom]

Might be a case of the baby getting thrown out with the bathwater? Funds getting confused & putting gold in the commodities basket (case?). The fundamentals are still there, looking for a dip to 2.78 (long tail day?) then bounce back on Monday.

[kennas]

Still might go further though. Lower gold price and the SP not anywhere near clear support.
There's some POG spt at $600 and LHG has hit 200 d ma and also approaching some upward support line. Not much though. SO, I think they are related to some degree. Perhaps I'm just seeing what I want. :sly: (holding - last bought in around $2.75)

[chops_a_must]

There's some POG spt at $600 and LHG has hit 200 d ma and also approaching some upward support line. Not much though. SO, I think they are related to some degree. Perhaps I'm just seeing what I want. :sly: (holding - last bought in around $2.75)
Ah well, it's not on commsec's short list, so that solves my problem.

[annalivia]

Like most gold stocks, Lihir's share price has taken a breather in recent months. This follows two years of firm gains during which prices more than quadrupled, hitting an all-time high of $3.64 during May. Encouragingly, consolidative pauses within long term upward trends commonly provide a base for the eventual resumption of the underlying trend. Patience my friends.

[porkpie324]

I have never traded LHR but looking at the chart the sp price since May has oscilated between 2.70:3.20, making LHR an excellent CFD trader. LHR has a big resource base and a reasonably priced gold extraction so I have placed LHR in my CFD trading watch list. porkpie

[Dr Doom]

Well that wasn't as bad as I thought it would be, with LHG holding up reasonably well, closing at $2.87, low of $2.85. Also, POG is clawing it's way back again, see if it holds in NY tonight. Now $609, up $4.10. I think 'the manipulators' saw an opportunity to bury gold along with other commodities (more of a currency these day's).

[Dr Doom]

Looks like a critical juncture for LHG around these levels ie at trendline support or breakdown. May have gotten caught up in the BDG fiasco as POG held steady?. Ready to enter on re-bound?.

[kennas]

Looks like a critical juncture for LHG around these levels ie at trendline support or breakdown. May have gotten caught up in the BDG fiasco as POG held steady?. Ready to enter on re-bound?.
I've got some mixed signals on this:

Broken down through 200d ma at about $2.90. Bearish
Broken through bottom of BB. A trading buy
MACD diverging going down through the signal line. Bearish
Oversold on the Slow Stochastic. Trading buy
Oversold on RSI but hasn't started to turn. ??

The sideways consolidation won't really be broken until it's broken $2.50 where there should be a last line of support. (high Jan, low Jul 06)

Interesting that gold was steady but goldies came off. I think the market is being cautious and locking in some profits. Seems to be some gneral uncertainty out there.....

[theasxgorilla]

KCN got slammed today as well. As with LHG there wasn't excessive volume either.

[Dr Doom]

kennas, how does it look with a 300 day ma, as I recall this is a good indicator with the POG, having bounced of that level in the past, when the 200 day has been breached?.

This could be healthy if it doesn't get caught up with the rest of the market too much, as I think the POG has with commodities. Needs time to resolve any short term weakness and allow fundamentals to re-gain the steering wheel. I noticed a story yesterday that the Indians are big buyers again at these levels, and open interest is leaving the POG wide open for a big re-bound ie underweight longs. Wouldn't take much to move POG higher from here.

[kennas]

kennas, how does it look with a 300 day ma, as I recall this is a good indicator with the POG, having bounced of that level in the past, when the 200 day has been breached?.

I hadn't heard that before. I've used 200d for a little while which I have found to be a good support line normally. I've seen other people use 90d ma, but it's a bit more hit and miss. (would like to do a better study of the best psychological ma spt line!)

This is the chart with 300d sma, which is still above my drop dead $2.50 line.

[Ken]

kennas

On 10 occassions I count. LHG has had a fall since its big run up.

It looks a volatile stock.

[kennas]

kennas

On 10 occassions I count. LHG has had a fall since its big run up.

It looks a volatile stock.
Yes, everything goes up and down. Most commods have whipsawed. Not for the faint hearted. IMO it's still going up until it breaks down through $2.65 ish. Below that, its troubling.....

[kennas]

Lihir just ann they have added 4.4 m oz au to their reserves. This is probably more than double what most mines have as their entire resourse!

They now have a tiny 23.6m oz au in reserves.

Gold back up to $640, might be an ok day for LHG. ;)

Young Gun's CFDs on this will be looking ok.

[Dr Doom]

I expect to see some action here soon re a takeover at these prices. With the upgrade, LHG is in the bargain category now, looking very attractive to the big boys.

[Steveo]

Thoughts on their PE of around 58?

[kennas]

Thoughts on their PE of around 58?Is damn high! Reason being they've been ramping up to full production at Lihir for some time and are still not really there. So, the future earnings are factored into the sp, along with an increased future POG. It's justified if gold goes to $700 and beyond. Maybe.

[porkpie324]

On rapidly expanding co a PE of 58 is nothing unusual OXR was on a PE higher than that at one time, what will tell is that the companies results reflect their projections, anyway I have opened a small long pos in LHG today. porkpie

[Dr Doom]

I assume the main factors any predator would be looking at is the resources and cost to produce, and sovereign risk, ie look at NEM's problems in Indonesia & Chile. LHG look pretty good for the first 2 and, being on an island, appears ok for sovereign risk. The main risk to the operations is volcanic activity. 23.6M oz's very attractive. :D

[Dr Doom]

Nice set of figures this morning for LHG. Finally hitting the sweet spot.

Net profit up 445% to $53.4 million
• Construction projects close to commissioning
• +1 million ounce feasibility study announced
• Reserves increased 23% to 23.6 million ounces
• Ballarat merger proceeding to plan
• On track to achieve 800 – 830 kozs production in 2007

Should be re-rated after the figures are examined further by brokers etc.

[porkpie324]

I hope your right doomy, still have my pos in LHR, up nicely on the an today, porkpie

[kennas]

Nice set of figures this morning for LHG. Finally hitting the sweet spot.

Net profit up 445% to $53.4 million
• Construction projects close to commissioning
• +1 million ounce feasibility study announced
• Reserves increased 23% to 23.6 million ounces
• Ballarat merger proceeding to plan
• On track to achieve 800 – 830 kozs production in 2007

Should be re-rated after the figures are examined further by brokers etc.I think LHG are going to have to keep acquiring other junior/mid goldies, or they will become a TO target. The big producers have stated they are after advanced projects with over 2m oz au, and LHG have over 20m. The sovereign risk has been an issue, but it´s been stated for years with no issue ever arrising. Perhaps NCM and LHG could merge to create a great Aussie goldie! They´d have close to 80m oz au together.

[chops_a_must]

Could be looking at a strong breakout for LHG this morning.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Could be looking at a strong breakout for LHG this morning.

And BSG.

[chops_a_must]

And BSG
Both charts are looking good.

[Dr Doom]

Could be looking at a strong breakout for LHG this morning.

Hey chops,
Hope so, but for some reason, gold stocks are lagging the pog lately?. Hopefully they will start to play catch-up soon, LHG my preferred goldy for both production and takeover. Should be interesting day today as LHG approaches top of channel (again!!) at $3.20, see if it can break through :D. Good attempt yesterday but have to be happy with the gain on the day. May retrace a bit, then resume upwards?. Buy target of $3.16.
DD

[kennas]

Hey chops,
Hope so, but for some reason, gold stocks are lagging the pog lately?. Hopefully they will start to play catch-up soon, LHG my preferred goldy for both production and takeover. Should be interesting day today as LHG approaches top of channel (again!!) at $3.20, see if it can break through :D. Good attempt yesterday but have to be happy with the gain on the day. May retrace a bit, then resume upwards?. Buy target of $3.16.
DDI agree that if this does eventually break this very strong resistance line it could really jump. No target in mind. I think some will be switching out of NCM into this too, after their ann.

[chops_a_must]

Hey chops,
Hope so, but for some reason, gold stocks are lagging the pog lately?. Hopefully they will start to play catch-up soon, LHG my preferred goldy for both production and takeover. Should be interesting day today as LHG approaches top of channel (again!!) at $3.20, see if it can break through :D. Good attempt yesterday but have to be happy with the gain on the day. May retrace a bit, then resume upwards?. Buy target of $3.16.
DD
It had a little peak at it, and then went back in its hidey hole. Volume is still good, so lets see if it can have another crack.

[Dr Doom]

Failed again! :mad: Not sure if the sp will re-trace back below $3 again in this cycle so will wait to see where it bottoms on Monday I guess. May get caught up in the commodities sell-off. Interesting day Monday :confused:

[porkpie324]

Did my first LHR trade made 20c closed on Thursday, will see what happens next week now. porkpie

[chops_a_must]

Failed again! :mad: Not sure if the sp will re-trace back below $3 again in this cycle so will wait to see where it bottoms on Monday I guess. May get caught up in the commodities sell-off. Interesting day Monday :confused:
I've been impressed with its price action today. Opened on its low, and has been steadily climbing all day, against the POG. And it looks as if it's going to close on its high. Maybe another proper run at 3.20 tomorrow?

[chops_a_must]

Why wont you budge? Lol!

[Jadefox]

Why wont you budge? Lol!

When it finally does it should be quite spectacular - it's been moving sideways for soooo long. So far it's been profitable for traders to trade the range so until the gold price makes a clear breakout I guess that's what will
continue to happen.

[Jadefox]

Wouldn't like to be short LHG now. If the POG can stay above $660 for several days then traders should have most of their doubts cleared about which direction the price is headed.

[rederob]

Lihir continues to be "marked down" because of its local Victorian gold mine acquisition.
However, any continuation of higher gold prices will see the acquisition as a real positive due to the high reserves and capacity to generate ongoing substantial profits.
Lihir's PNG mine is one of the few that can reduce/contain its cash costs due to its geothermal power plant, while most others will have higher energy cost imputs.
I wonder if BHP is looking at adding gold to its list of metals?

[Jadefox]

There may be only a small window of time to make a move on Lihir at current price levels.

[chops_a_must]

There may be only a small window of time to make a move on Lihir at current price levels.
Yes. It looks to be breaking out right at this moment.

[theasxgorilla]

Yes. It looks to be breaking out right at this moment.

Trading at highest prices since the 15th of May last year.

[Go Nuke]

LHR might have broken out...but is it too late to buy into??

Its got a good track record for taking a bit of a dive after each of its previuos highs.

Im sure the merger has made the difference......but too many times Ive bought on a high only to see it come crashing down in the weeks to come. :banghead:

[Dr Doom]

I'd really like to see it go further but I've got a feeling there might be a correction in the general market looming that will drag gold stocks back a bit, in an otherwise bullish gold market. Any corrections back for LHG now are last chance opportunities, higher lows & higher highs, as long as the pog keeps going, which may falter a bit tonight?.

[Jadefox]

One scenario might be a move to 3.40 or so then a pull back to the break out point at around 3.26. If it can establish a low on top of the old high then that would be an ideal buy or 'add to position' point.
Agree with Doom that any pullbacks are buying opportunities from here provided that the POG maintains its upward momentum.

[Go Nuke]

Well ive set to buy at $3.23...dunno if thats a stupid idea or not, but I have this bad habit of believing that im going to miss the boat :sly:

Perhaps thats y 4/5 of my stocks are now less than what i bought them for:(

But from what Ive read...Lihir is reguarded as a pretty safe investment...so even if it does go a bit sour in the short term...hopefully it will pay off in the long term:)

[Jadefox]

Looks like it will pull back a bit today. A stronger dollar may be a problem for the gold uptrend - along with Bernake speeches this week.

Jim Sinclair writes today:

"Since most of these indicators have come modestly positive on balance, the dollar market is placing its bet on that continuing by rising. Gold is off slightly while gold shares remain in the tank.

We have a bull trend in gold above a major break out, a bear phase in the absolute majority of gold shares and a positive dollar market. Now there is a mix that could give anyone heartburn.

There is no question in my mind we will trade up to and possibly beyond $800 which in retrospect will be seen to have been part of this upwards move now.

I would tend to take a contrarian approach to gold. I would under no basis chase the price of gold up as a buyer - I prefer to buy gold on reaction. I do not buy strength. We have a perfect indicator now in the Platform for if gold is to deny the shares it needs only to remain above that level.

We are going for three closes above the Platform.

Be careful in your trading activities as Hedge Fund and Political readers have a perversity in their trading actions. Please do not chase strength with buys. Here we buy weakness. Sit still on breakouts and sell strength, TA guided.

My strategy is to hold my speculative trading gold position, stopped slightly below the Platform.

To Investors we are going to $750 – $887.50 and $1650."

[theasxgorilla]

We have a bull trend in gold above a major break out, a bear phase in the absolute majority of gold shares and a positive dollar market. Now there is a mix that could give anyone heartburn.

Hi Jadefox,

How do you assess that we are in a positive dollar market? To my estimation even at even at the 1.30 level the EUR/USD cross rate is at near all time EUR high.

[Jadefox]

Hi Gorilla,

I just look at the US Dollar index (DX) which has been moving up since early December and which moved back up over 85 last night. No serious damage has been done to the uptrend. A move below 84.25 would indicate a reversal of fortunes.

That quote was taken from Jim Sinclair's website and referred to economic reports/indicators which have been mildly positive recently:

"Since most of these indicators have come modestly positive on balance, the dollar market is placing its bet on that continuing by rising."

I still feel that the uptrend in Gold and LHG will continue and possibly accelerate. I currently hold LHG calls though and am aware of my bias.
I'm also aware of the current large commercial short position.

[scsl]

This was in The Age Investor liftout on Sunday:


[Fat Prophets] co-director Angus Geddes likes Lihir Gold, which he expects to double in price to $7.30 this year

[IFocus]

The chart shows an inside day today on low volume which unfortunately is far from bullish for the short term.





http://i159.photobucket.com/albums/t143/Focus_g/LHG.png

[haemitite]

The chart shows an inside day today on low volume which unfortunately is far from bullish for the short term. For those who place much emphasis on charts perhaps

[chops_a_must]

Finally through the resistance at 3.30. Now buyers are outstripping sellers... and we could see some movement now.

[theasxgorilla]

The chart shows an inside day today on low volume which unfortunately is far from bullish for the short term.

Why do you interpret this as "far from bullish"?

[IFocus]

Hi Gorilla,

The buyers came out on Monday fired up but Tuesday there was no follow through and the result was an inside day on much lower volume.

Inside days can signal the start of a change in sentiment in the market and form into reversals. Given this behaviour around the top of the current range it may be not be a breakout but simply a new top and a reversal forming.

LHG’s price bangs around a fair bit so one day is not all that significant but this behaviour to me is a heads up given its location.

Hopefully it’s a breakout and we see a close soon above Monday

Focus

[chops_a_must]

Hi Gorilla,

The buyers came out on Monday fired up but Tuesday there was no follow through and the result was an inside day on much lower volume.

Inside days can signal the start of a change in sentiment in the market and form into reversals. Given this behaviour around the top of the current range it may be not be a breakout but simply a new top and a reversal forming.

LHG’s price bangs around a fair bit so one day is not all that significant but this behaviour to me is a heads up given its location.

Hopefully it’s a breakout and we see a close soon above Monday

Focus
I'm thinking it was more consolidation after the initial breakout. Considering the price seemed to be capped and manipulated all throughout today, I'm thinking it was consolidation.

You just can't have the sort of announcements that LHG had without eventually having a positive impace on the share price. Big volume at the end of the day, a very bullish close. I wonder how long this stock is going to be kept down for before it goes crazy...