Make up your own mind on this one (I hold AGL). In the agm presentation, it states they are seeking a ruling from ATO for returning proceeds of NGC sale to shareholders.
However, currently agl down almost 1%
GreatPig
31st-October-2005, 11:54 AM
AGL up 5.3% this morning to a new all-time high of $15.27 (as I write).
Today's announcements include a pending demerger to two new entities, and the acquisition of Southern Hydro.
I've been holding this for a few months now, during which time it's mostly been pretty flat. Hopefully today's boost will hold.
Cheers,
GP
GreatPig
2nd-November-2005, 12:52 PM
Back down to $14.75 now. That was short-lived.
Boring... :goodnight
Cheers,
GP
happytrader
2nd-November-2005, 05:04 PM
He Greatpig
I hope you took your reward for being patient. That would have been at least a 100% return on an option trade if you had bought anytime last week and sold on Monday or Tuesday. Wouldnt have minded that one. Since Im a bit one eyed I miss whats going on. If you did'nt, next time.
Cheers
Happytrader
GreatPig
28th-December-2005, 12:14 PM
AGL is still pushing through the roof.
Which is fine, since I'm holding :), but anyone got any idea why it's become so popular these last couple of months?
Cheers,
GP
clowboy
28th-December-2005, 06:15 PM
hey GP
I have an idea
Cuase I sold mine :(
Stan 101
25th-January-2006, 11:00 PM
Interesting one, there is a reasonable div on offer though the price is dropping here... Does anyone have any thoughts? I jumped out at $17.90 while it was on offer. will consider stepping back in at about 17.60 if I get the chance...
visual
25th-January-2006, 11:08 PM
agl,interesting!
sold mine after the capital return The intelligent investor had a sell on it for weeks,apparently their debt was increasing heavily and they didnt think it was healthy,so what do you know it races up,so much for expert opinions
APA a spin off from agl is also doing great yep sold that too.
:swear:
Stan 101
25th-January-2006, 11:18 PM
you'll have your day in the sun, Visual.
I never hold for the long term. I keep my profit low and trade often. In and out. I'm actually looking at running a few trades with a view to holding for I, like you have had the same thing happen. The only saving graqce is that i stuck to my method. The next time I let it run could be for the detriment.
cheers,
nizar
25th-January-2006, 11:54 PM
historically, demergers have always created extra shareholder value... for both demerged entities
look at wat happened 2 bhp since it demerged onesteel in 2000?
how abt bhp and bsl in 2002?
and boral and origin energy in 2000?
and csr and rinker in 2003??
all up up and up more than 100%...
agl been heating up lately becoz its closer to demerger, which will be in april...
its AGL energy (proposed retail energy company), analysts thought was a but dry as to where future revenues were coming from and this is why agl fast-tracked the OSH deal, announced recently...
this one is a winner, each agl holder will get a share in both companies post-demerger... hold on 2 it, imo it will do well in the longer-term..
mit
27th-January-2006, 09:58 PM
AGL after their rapid expansion never integrated the billing systems which means a high cost to serve. They are now trying to integrate all of these systems which is a massive and very risky undertaking. For companies of this type efficient systems for billing is everything. Not bill enough customers and you lose your cash flow (one of the problems with one-tel), mis-bill the regulatory chairman's mother and you are a target.
MIT
markrmau
21st-February-2006, 03:08 PM
You don't see this often in the land of Oz.
AGL order for 31,691,759@19.450
About $600M in one go.
(obviously related to aln merger)
Prospector
21st-February-2006, 03:36 PM
Merger or hostile takeover? Who cares at the moment, my shares are looking just beautiful today! But am now top heavy in AGL :D
nizar
21st-February-2006, 05:48 PM
Merger or hostile takeover? Who cares at the moment, my shares are looking just beautiful today! But am now top heavy in AGL :D
yes i agree...
AGL demerger was going to enhance shareholder value anyway, ALN reckon they will pay higher divies - hey im not complaining...
did a bit of research on aust companies in the past that have demerged and the effect on shareprice:
BHP/BSL (jul2002): BHP has since gained 114% and BSL 114%
BHP/OST (oct2000): BHP has since gained 152% and OST 310%
CSR/RIN (mar2003): CSR has gained 94% and RIN 151%
BOR/ORG (feb2000): BOR has gained 321% and ORG 268%
im holding on to AGL long-term...
Prospector
21st-February-2006, 06:48 PM
Except they wont be AGL anymore but ALN! Yes, my biggest share by a long shot in value but will hang on for the moment!
Prospector
21st-February-2006, 06:53 PM
yes i agree...
AGL demerger was going to enhance shareholder value anyway, ALN reckon they will pay higher divies - hey im not complaining...
did a bit of research on aust companies in the past that have demerged and the effect on shareprice:
BHP/BSL (jul2002): BHP has since gained 114% and BSL 114%
BHP/OST (oct2000): BHP has since gained 152% and OST 310%
CSR/RIN (mar2003): CSR has gained 94% and RIN 151%
BOR/ORG (feb2000): BOR has gained 321% and ORG 268%
im holding on to AGL long-term...
Hey Nizar - thanks for posting in long hand too!
GreatPig
21st-February-2006, 08:40 PM
Yes, a nice thing to behold!
Fortunately I'm still holding :)
Cheers,
GP
mit
22nd-February-2006, 09:10 AM
There is a difference between the AGL demerger and the other demergers mentioned. The other demergers were largely financial engineering and separation of corporate groups but with a vertically integrated energy company there are many other issues that need to be dealt with. Their demerger is closer to the suggestedTelstra split between wholesale and retail.
AGL already faces an ambitious IT program. AGL unlike Origin (the nearest competitor) never really integrated the businesses they acquired and runs many separate billing systems and the IT program is to finally do the integration. Add to this the probable need to split some of these billing systems into network and retail billing.
Having been involved in a few billing system integration/separations I know it is tough and a high percentage have gone awry (none of mine :D ).
Compare this to Origin which has made an announcement about the friendly merge with Contact. The two strong companies will form an even stronger single company. Also Origin is to increase dividends (watching Rozella?) (and Origin has none of the IT issues that AGL and will target costs by some small targeted system improvements)
Note that the unfriendly merger ALN/AGL has caused a large jump in their price where the Origin/Contact announcement has made barely a dent. My GUESS is that hedge funds have bought ALN/AGL for some short term gain and will drop the shares if there are any issues with the merger or IT work and that Origin will be slowly acquired by longer term funds.
If I wasn't a TA person (price action rules!) and a longer term holder, I would buy Origin now and buy into ALN/AGL if the sh*t hits the fans and the price drops as I think that what they are doing is good long term but there could be a rocky road ahead.
MIT
nizar
22nd-February-2006, 10:50 AM
There is a difference between the AGL demerger and the other demergers mentioned. The other demergers were largely financial engineering and separation of corporate groups but with a vertically integrated energy company there are many other issues that need to be dealt with. Their demerger is closer to the suggestedTelstra split between wholesale and retail.
AGL already faces an ambitious IT program. AGL unlike Origin (the nearest competitor) never really integrated the businesses they acquired and runs many separate billing systems and the IT program is to finally do the integration. Add to this the probable need to split some of these billing systems into network and retail billing.
Having been involved in a few billing system integration/separations I know it is tough and a high percentage have gone awry (none of mine :D ).
Compare this to Origin which has made an announcement about the friendly merge with Contact. The two strong companies will form an even stronger single company. Also Origin is to increase dividends (watching Rozella?) (and Origin has none of the IT issues that AGL and will target costs by some small targeted system improvements)
Note that the unfriendly merger ALN/AGL has caused a large jump in their price where the Origin/Contact announcement has made barely a dent. My GUESS is that hedge funds have bought ALN/AGL for some short term gain and will drop the shares if there are any issues with the merger or IT work and that Origin will be slowly acquired by longer term funds.
If I wasn't a TA person (price action rules!) and a longer term holder, I would buy Origin now and buy into ALN/AGL if the sh*t hits the fans and the price drops as I think that what they are doing is good long term but there could be a rocky road ahead.
MIT
thanks for your views...
u mention origin is going to increase dividends, so is ALN once merger is complete, see the 11 page AGL announcement released to asx yesterday:
Bob browning ALN CEO: "we believe the alinta proposal will provide agl shareholders with a higher dividend payment than they would have got from AGL's stand-alone demerger"
GreatPig
23rd-April-2006, 11:45 AM
Just wondering what people's thoughts are about the Alinta offer now.
I've received the offer form, giving 1.773 Alinta shares for each AGL share. With Alinta's current price of $11, that values AGL shares at $19.50, with their current market price being $18.40.
Alinta's share price has been going sideways for some months now, but if it stayed the same, that would still deliver a premium on the current AGL price.
I think I'll wait until the last few days to decide (offer currently closes 31st May).
Cheers,
GP
Prospector
23rd-April-2006, 05:07 PM
Thanks for posting the question - I am also not sure what to do but as you say, at the moment it sounds like a good deal but those last couple of days may be tricky!
Prospector
7th-June-2006, 02:50 PM
At risk of talking to myself :p: isnt this just a bizarre scenario at the moment - AGL and Alinta extending both their offers and both recommending that no action be taken!
Talk about process getting in the way of common sense! Bet that law was designed by a man :fan
kennas
7th-June-2006, 05:36 PM
Ha, ha, but absolutely. Don't they both know they are ultimately costing themselves. Boys and their toys! Or tools!
Prospector
7th-June-2006, 05:56 PM
Ha, ha, but absolutely. Don't they both know they are ultimately costing themselves. Boys and their toys! Or tools!
Is that the boys that are the tools or the toys :D
(Wait til the boys get a sniff of this link....... :p: )
