TIM - Timbercorp Limited

[Lucstar]

Hi guys, recently there has been quite a bit of talk about TIM (Timbercorp Limited). What are some of your views on this stock?? ...short and long term

[ghotib]

Now what kind of a question is that when you've picked it for the October comp and not given reasons ;)

I'm not a trader. I'm looking to buy shares in businesses that make sense to me and that have a record of steady growth, consistent dividends, and a board and management that seem level-headed and to have some diversity of background and experience. TIM might be a candidate, but I don't really understand the implications of its capital structure so I'm not confident about a price. I'm sure you know that it's been rising steadily for months.

You probably saw the announcement about its possible inclusion in one (or more?) of the indexes? I presume that's the reason for its jump today (i.e. Sept 30) and I presume that will keep its price rising. I didn't know about that when I decided to pick it for the comp; I just thought that I'd probably miss it in the real world so I might as well pick it for fun.

Ghoti

[ghotib]

Lucstar,

You said there'd been quite a lot of talk about TIM? Do you remember where that was and for how long?

Thanks

Ghoti

[Lucstar]

I was doing work experience at a couple of broking firms in the past couple of weeks. Merrill Lynch, Burdett Buckeridge Young and Austock Brokers. TIM was mentioned quite often at Austock

[ghotib]

I was doing work experience at a couple of broking firms in the past couple of weeks. Merrill Lynch, Burdett Buckeridge Young and Austock Brokers. TIM was mentioned quite often at Austock
That was an unexpected answer - what kind of work were you doing?

I'm still trying to sort out how returns are allocated between all the different people who put capital into these sorts of companies. Any ideas?

Thanks

Ghoti

[ghotib]

Chartists, do you see any clear trend in price for this one? It looks to me to be settling at around $1.49, but I can't figure out what it might do after that?

What do you think now Lucstar, seeing as it's your comp pic?

Cheers

Ghoti

[stockGURU]

Where's our resident charting guru WayneL when you need him?

:karate:

[dasher]

Timbercorp (TIM)

Any thoughts on this stock in the long or short term? :banghead:

I have been holding this for some time now & thinking of getting out?

[Milk Man]

cant see any reason to sell from a technical stand point
dont know much of the fundamentals though

[ghotib]

Timbercorp (TIM)

Any thoughts on this stock in the long or short term? :banghead:

I have been holding this for some time now & thinking of getting out?
What thoughts are you thinking that lead you to think of getting out?

I hold this for the long term because as far as I can see it fits my criteria, some of which are that it seems to be well run, it has a record of profitable business development; it pays fully franked dividends, and it has a dividend reinvestment plan. To my very basic understanding of charting its share price appears to be trending up, which I would have thought was another reason to hold on, but it all depends.

Not advice, think your own thoughts, your mileage may vary, and all other disclaimers.

Ghoti

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Timbercorp (TIM)

Any thoughts on this stock in the long or short term? :banghead:

I have been holding this for some time now & thinking of getting out?

Why bang your head with this stock?

It's in an uptrend, has had recent volume to support the price rise and has had a good forecast. Read the following.

http://www.timbercorp.com.au/default.asp?cid=11632&menuid=11202

[dasher]

Last Trade was @ $2.18 with a days low of $2.10 & a high of $2.20
What is going on with this sto :rolleyes: ck?

[markrmau]

TIM might just have broken out of its trading range. Perhaps a little more confirmation is needed, but one to keep an eye on.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

WARNING: ..... astrostuff ahead ..... :)

Hi folks,

TIM ..... as per HC post on 02102005,
we are approaching, what has been a
critical time cycle in the past for TIM.

Past two days has seen 2.75 resistance hold,
as we saw two "hanging man candles" form on
the chart.

Thursday's price action was surely a signal
day, with such a wide range ..... this stock
would seem to have run out of steam, now.

Will be alert for a slide next week, probably
around 22112005 will certainly be worth watching ..... :)

=====

From about 05122005-28022006, there should be a
significant focus on TIM's finances, with this
issue being revisited a number of times,
throughout this period.

=====

happy days

yogi

:)

[Fundementals]

I dont see how anyone could buy this stock over GTP on fundamentals.
Their MIS sales are much lower (GTP has superior projects) yet the market caps are similar due to different PE's.

http://www.great-southern.com.au/cproot/586/2/roadshow%20presentation%20nov04.pdf

Technical analysis and speculation is the only thing driving this stock.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

TIM ..... as per post above on 18112005:

"Will be alert for a slide next week, probably
around 22112005 will certainly be worth watching" ..... :)

Conservative traders will want further confirmation,
but today should be the start of the slide, mentioned
above ..... ???

happy days

yogi

:)

[ghotib]

Can someone see what's happened in the opening auction today? At 10.03 Comsec shows bids for over 250,000 shares ranging from 350 to 356, and offers for about 370,000 ranging from 325 to 265. Yesterday's close was 339.

Unusually high volume and wide ranges.

I have no intention of selling, but I'm curious about this.

Thanks

Ghoti

[michael_selway]

Can someone see what's happened in the opening auction today? At 10.03 Comsec shows bids for over 250,000 shares ranging from 350 to 356, and offers for about 370,000 ranging from 325 to 265. Yesterday's close was 339.

Unusually high volume and wide ranges.

I have no intention of selling, but I'm curious about this.

Thanks

Ghoti

Sometimes its not updated, so just old left over unexecutable bids/asks

btw do u prefer TIM or GTP?

thx

MS

[ghotib]

Hi Michael,

Sometimes its not updated, so just old left over unexecutable bids/asksDon't think so this time - it's nearly a million already today, where a normal day is around half a million. Maybe there's an announcement coming this afternoon.


btw do u prefer TIM or GTP?Although they're both MIS companies and both grow plantation timber, I don't really understood why TIM and GTP are perceived as comparable businesses. They're classified in different market sectors, and their revenue streams seem to be quite different.

I bought TIM in December 2004. At that time it was already well on the way to diversifying both its crops and its revenue streams, with growing "annuity style" income. I like that about it, I like the direction management are taking it, and I like everything I've seen about the board and managers themselves and the culture of the company. Nothing against GTP though.

Ghoti

[ghotib]

Just read the BHP ANZ WBC thread. This might be the same thing; just a lot of activity by the big guys.

Ghoti

[moby]

What do you guys think of Timbercorp. Looks like it could take off soon. Its been smashed since July and still hasn't recovered. Apparently they have tax issues. Anyone have any info. Its found strong support at 2.70 i was thinking of entering on close about 2.90?

Also anyone downloaded the new sharetrading game.. $25k cash prize Sounds good! Although i haven't downloaded it yet. I want to do a write up on it for my site? www.sharetradinggame.com.au

[Jackob]

Latest News: Crackdown on timber tax breaks

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20930223-2702,00.html

Crackdown on timber tax breaks
Steve Lewis, Chief political correspondent
December 15, 2006

THE Howard Government faces an election-year showdown with the powerful forestry sector - and Macquarie Bank - after deciding to crack down on tax breaks for mass-marketed timber plantations.

Cabinet's decision, taken this week, will also ignite another partyroom brawl, with regional MPs resisting the plan to wind back the tax breaks for the so-called "managed investment schemes". More than $2 billion has been ploughed into MIS plantations since 2000, with a small group of investment firms reaping millions of dollars in commissions and fees.

The Government has been forced to get tough amid concerns "Pitt Street farmers" were snaring lucrative tax breaks at the expense of legitimate agricultural operations.

Ministers fear rich investors are abusing the tax break, with too much money in some schemes spent on managers' salaries and commissions or inappropriate projects rather than legitimate forestry plantations.

MIS funds will now have to prove that at least 70 per cent of the investment is for actual tree plantations, or their investors lose the full tax deductibility.

Senior ministers believe the tax changes will weed out speculators, and cut down on the huge fees being paid to the small number of pooled fund managers.

"The reality is that a lot of it is city money. But this will flush them out," a senior government figure told The Australian. Another source said cabinet had agreed to the crackdown because of concerns it had been "open slather" for tax-minimisers.

"The clear view is that a lot of the money (going into MIS) is being pilfered out of it by investment bankers and advisers," the source said.

Senior ministers held a robust debate about the contentious tax plan in Sydney on Monday. It is understood Peter Costello has led the charge against the tax breaks.

Macquarie Bank, Timbercorp and Great Southern Plantations have been the main backers of MIS forestry since special tax rules were introduced in 2000.

The three have formed a peak lobby group - Agriculture Investment Managers Australia - to argue their case in Canberra.

AIMA claims that commissions paid by agri-MIS projects "are no higher than other financial products". They also point to the strong growth in plantations with more than 500,000ha of timber planted since 2000 - helping Australia meet its Kyoto target.

The National Association of Forestry Industries, which played a crucial role during the 2004 election by opposing Mark Latham's Tasmanian forestry plan, has warned that changing tax laws would "disadvantage" forestry growers and reduce much-needed regional investment.

Catherine Murphy, NAFI chief executive and a former adviser to John Howard, last night backed the MIS arrangements, which she said had worked well.

"We believe that the current MIS arrangements have delivered over $2 billion to rural and regional Australia, as well as contributing four percentage points or 20 million tonnes of CO2 annually towards offsetting our Kyoto targets," she said.

Wilson Tuckey, a former forestry minister, yesterday warned the Prime Minister he would face another partyroom revolt if he tried to tighten up tax laws.

But another Liberal backbencher, Geoff Prosser, said management fees charged by MIS firms were exorbitant and distorted regional economies.
Edit/Delete Message

[KaiserBun]

Big day for Timbercorp (30% odd drop) and fellow MIS providers.....

The government has decided that from July 1 investors in non-forestry MIS would no longer be able to claim upfront deductions for their contributions on the basis that the investor is "carrying on a business".

I wonder what type of impact this will have on the profits on Timbercorp, and the affect on the trusts they currently are running, and trying to start up.

[pbourk111]

Hey guys my first post!!

TIM is on the move.... i thought it would be a dog with such a huge exposure to non-forestry and the ATO slamming its tax deductibilty.

AGM coming up on Thursday. is it worth a punt?

[It's Snake Pliskin]

For the fundamental minded was the report as expected or a shock? I see the price has been punched. It was starting to set up nicely.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Well this is one of my holdings which is starting to look good. Some demand is coming into it which is evident. Looking back the pieces of the jigsaw are starting to add up.

I shall pyramind from $2.21. Time frame unknown.

[reece55]

Well this is one of my holdings which is starting to look good. Some demand is coming into it which is evident. Looking back the pieces of the jigsaw are starting to add up.

I shall pyramind from $2.21. Time frame unknown.

Nice play Snake
There is still quite a large short position here that shorted when she broke down to 2.00. They would be very nervous players right now me thinks....

Best of luck in the position.....

Cheers

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Nice play Snake
There is still quite a large short position here that shorted when she broke down to 2.00. They would be very nervous players right now me thinks....

Best of luck in the position.....

Cheers

Hi Reece,

That gap day should have cleaned most of them out. If not they are gambling against the river. This stock is now in a place of strength that needs some weird action to change its direction. I may be wrong.

Cheers

[reece55]

Hi Reece,

That gap day should have cleaned most of them out. If not they are gambling against the river. This stock is now in a place of strength that needs some weird action to change its direction. I may be wrong.

Cheers

They were still there on C.O.B Tuesday......

TIM TIMBERCORP LIMITED 7,795,387 2.55%

This would take a few days to unwind, watch the stress of a short squeeze..... With the takeover/restructure discussions in the midst, it should appreciate fairly quickly...

Cheers

[nomore4s]

Well this is one of my holdings which is starting to look good. Some demand is coming into it which is evident. Looking back the pieces of the jigsaw are starting to add up.

I shall pyramind from $2.21. Time frame unknown.

Snake are you still in this one or interested in it?

I have been watching it for a while and have been waiting to see if the gap between $1.92 & $2.00 would be filled, looks to have been pretty much filled now. Showed some strength today in the last hour or so and a very good close.

I took a small position today at open, only game to take a small one with the current issues with the market and the fact this stock still has a bit of work to do. Will be looking for a prymid opp when/if it breaks through the resistance at $2.25ish.

Will post a chart later tonight, when I get home.

[nomore4s]

Chart as promised:p:

Most of the info is on the chart for this trade. Have set my stop at a close under $1.82.
Last 2 days have been quite good with closes near the highs on med to light vol. Nice wider range day today with strong close.

The second chart also shows some bullish divergence.

A lot will depend on the overall market but was willing to take the risk on this one.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Snake are you still in this one or interested in it?

I have been watching it for a while and have been waiting to see if the gap between $1.92 & $2.00 would be filled, looks to have been pretty much filled now. Showed some strength today in the last hour or so and a very good close.

I took a small position today at open, only game to take a small one with the current issues with the market and the fact this stock still has a bit of work to do. Will be looking for a prymid opp when/if it breaks through the resistance at $2.25ish.

Will post a chart later tonight, when I get home.

I am out!

It got to a point of stretching the maximum loss permissable so I exited at $1.96. I notice it is back there now.

There was a lot buying support at $2 before last Thursday. But it appeared to dissipate well below so I thought it wise to take a small loss and watch it.

Huntleys stopped coverage I think, shorts may still be in on it too, don't know.

good luck with your trade.

[nomore4s]

Chart as promised:p:

Most of the info is on the chart for this trade. Have set my stop at a close under $1.82.
Last 2 days have been quite good with closes near the highs on med to light vol. Nice wider range day today with strong close.

The second chart also shows some bullish divergence.

A lot will depend on the overall market but was willing to take the risk on this one.

This trade is starting to look good, strong day today. Will take pyramid in tomorrow on open.

Will post more detail and a chart later when I get more time.

[nomore4s]

Chart as discussed but with the overseas markets down by a bit atm, tomorrows entry will be put on hold until the next leg down plays out.

[Junior]

Share price has really gone backwards this week. Anyone know why? The continued drought may have had an impact I guess.

[ROE]

I cant find any announcement either :confused:
Maybe someone know something we don't :D or maybe something
that link to high Water usage may get a general sell off due to drought

[ROE]

Trading halt today anyone know what's up with this baby?
is someone is making a bid for them or the dredge profit downgrade :D

[BHP]

New share issue looking to raise $70 million.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,25197,22868047-5013408,00.html

[Rainmaker2000]

Absolute bastards.....I own a few of these as they are undervalued but I did not like their result few weeks ago and wrote a letter to 'investor relations' asking why it is that they were paying a dividend when they will obviously need to raise capital this year.................no reply to the letter and now this..........capital raising is at a stock low point which is robbing existing holders....this is hardly helped by the share purchase plan as the price will obviously hit $1.40 as the supply/demand comes to balance again..........I like the companies prospects and assets but this is mismanagement and a good example of paying high dividends reducing shareholder value.......

[Jackob]

Absolute bastards.....I own a few of these as they are undervalued but I did not like their result few weeks ago and wrote a letter to 'investor relations' asking why it is that they were paying a dividend when they will obviously need to raise capital this year.................no reply to the letter and now this..........capital raising is at a stock low point which is robbing existing holders....this is hardly helped by the share purchase plan as the price will obviously hit $1.40 as the supply/demand comes to balance again..........I like the companies prospects and assets but this is mismanagement and a good example of paying high dividends reducing shareholder value.......

TIM and GTP used to raise capital after the annual reports (sometimes the preliminary). Both shonky business.

[ROE]

what institution is buying into TIM?
I hope it's not some dodgy private equity deal, where they screw the existing share holders and they have a nice discount share price

[Rainmaker2000]

Not doubt the usual bull dust about 'sophisticated investors' and institutionals buying the stock..........of course they are sophisticated, they got their stock to sell on market the other day while us slobs can buy in a few weeks at 1.52 when the market hits $1.40............

I'm doing some more analysis and I'm pretty sure this is the low point for the business, many reasons for this, thank god...........so I may load up some more as the upside is potentially very, very significant in my view............please don't take this as investment advice as I'm the guy who got in at $2 initially

[Jackob]

The $10m SSP at $1.525/s will close on 24/12/2007.

But the price at this minute is be tween $1.515 - $1.520/s (3:12pm) - under water! :(

[Rainmaker2000]

It makes me giggle how much this stock is screwing me at moment..for example, I had a sell at 1.64 which went unfilled just....I was selling the amount I would have bought in rights issue (spp)......alas, those 'sophisticated' investors have been heading for the door driving the price down from its $1.70 peak to now be taking losses so my rights is now worth nothing whereas I almost liquidated for $400ish......and to cap it off, my dividend reinvestment has just come in below the current stock price......it really sucks when management shows disregard to its own shareholders:banghead:

[brettc4]

TIM is currently at $1.325 which is a P/E of 6.1.
It hasn't been this low since Sep 04.
According to Analysis on COMSEC, EPS will drop a little over the next couple of years, before stabelizing.

Book Value is $1.64.

This to me means the price is undevalued and becoming more undervalued as time goes on.
That also means to me that they are a potential takeover target.
UBS and PM Capital have each bought 5% plus in the last couple of months.

The drought will be affecting them but I think they should have a bounce in the not to distant future unless bad news is released.
I will be watching this one closely and may look at picking up a smallish parcel.

My Guess this will continue to drop to between $1 and $1.20 before raising towards $2.

Can anyone add and further FA or TA Analysis to this?

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi folks,

TIM ... historically, we have seen short rallies, around 15 January each year
and given the extreme sell-off this year, it would not be surprising to see
a bounce off the lows ... technically, a bounce off 1.02 or thereabouts
would be a good sign for TIM.

Looking ahead, our astroanalysis comes up with some positive cycles,
around 30042008, immediately after lows expected 25-28042008 (???)

For longer term players ... with 5 time cycles in tow, TIM should have some
significant news in May, August and September 2009, particularly around
16092009 ..... that, should be huge for TIM ..... :)

More later .....

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[Rainmaker2000]

Mate, there is tonnes of value to be had in this sucker.........the market can be so shortsighted it is beyond belief.......the obvious attraction is its dividends and assets.............but the more compelling proposition is its annuity stream.....

It is just amazing, it takes five minutes of research for market participants to discover that next year, for example, TIM will make $300 million in annuity revenue, up from about 240 this year......the company is only capitalised at 515 million.....and annuities will keep increasing in years ahead, following the sharp trend of prior sales of product.......

[pch]

Hey Rainmaker2000 (we seem to follow the same stocks), I am inclined to agree with you. The annuity income stream was what was cool in the first place (around 2000 when it was all doldrums). Watching closely now with a view to getting back in during this correction..

[Rainmaker2000]

hehe, yeah I'm right into this sector....big, big fan of Select Harvests as well......I like Select a bit more as its a business more in my field of understanding........I've been hammered so far with my TIM exposure, with the recent share price losses just appalling.........my hope is management does not need to go back to the market for capital as they let the annuities build up and end the Cap ex....they have a bit of debt but should be OK was they can sell many more of the agricultural assets to their TIM property trust............to be honest, even the property trust does not look that bad an investment for something a little more solid

[pch]

Although I don't have time to examine it the way I have done for GTP, operational cashflow is still appalling and they have debt due to refinance in 08. There's your risk premium right there..

[Rainmaker2000]

Apparently there is some refinance risk but surely its not significant with this companies assets......its not much in shareholders interest if TIMs forced to sell non-core assets like SHV shareholding...farming assets are not exactly flavour of the month.......the key I guess is how quickly they can turn around the cap ex spend and channel free cash

[sheggie]

So, the Chairman sold $1.3 million worth on 16 January. Hmm. I'm not a trader but I bought in April last year following the advice of my investment newsletter. Very disappointing.

[Judd]

Apparently there is some refinance risk but surely its not significant with this companies assets

Ever heard of debt to equity ratio? It may be worthwhile doing some sums on that aspect. A quick look and it seems to me that it exceeds 100% by a large margin but then I could have keyed in the wrong numbers. Then again maybe not.

[3MT]

So, the Chairman sold $1.3 million worth on 16 January. Hmm. I'm not a trader but I bought in April last year following the advice of my investment newsletter. Very disappointing.

I wouldn't worry about it too much. It's most likely in response to a margin call. it did close at 80c the day before, i'm sure that would have triggered some early morning phone calls.

[Rainmaker2000]

Can't say I've ever heard of debt/equity ratio...I thought this company with a capitalisation of less than $400 million had a clean 1.6 billion in assets on the balance sheet...who was to know there's over $800 million worth of debt......Who would think that as a share price halves, off balance sheet shareholder equity would halve whilst debt would remain constant.

Just on insider trades, Hance recently bought 2 million shares so there is some insider buying......also, I saw many directors reinvested dividends in the DRP.....not saying this can't be another Rodney Adler though....hehehe...its time for management to earn their cash

[Jackob]

Ever heard of debt to equity ratio? It may be worthwhile doing some sums on that aspect. A quick look and it seems to me that it exceeds 100% by a large margin but then I could have keyed in the wrong numbers. Then again maybe not.

TIM's debt/equit ritio = 171.3% , according to ComSec. It's increasing rapidly in recent years.

Its e/s dropped from 27c/s to 21.7c/s last year and I had an impression a big part of it was from land value appreciation.

[sheggie]

Ever heard of debt to equity ratio? It may be worthwhile doing some sums on that aspect. A quick look and it seems to me that it exceeds 100% by a large margin but then I could have keyed in the wrong numbers. Then again maybe not.

No, I think you're right. The debt/equity ratio is 171%. Market average is 35%. I think Timbeercorp's problem is related to the horticultural projects which have been challenged for their tax avoidance status.

[Jackob]

No, I think you're right. The debt/equity ratio is 171%. Market average is 35%. I think Timbeercorp's problem is related to the horticultural projects which have been challenged for their tax avoidance status.

Sheggie,

Yeah, it's a big headache for TIM that their horticultural projects have been challenged by the Government. However I think the more serious problem is that all those schemes never make enough money to sercice the debt and pay dividend.

So in a long run TIM's (like GTP) profit has to drop and debt to rocket. These trends have been accelerated to almost an unbearable point in recent years. This was why we would all see the share price slumping from $4+ a year ago to $1+ now. I reckon more down side risk for this stock (and GTP alike).

[Junior]

Sheggie,

Yeah, it's a big headache for TIM that their horticultural projects have been challenged by the Government. However I think the more serious problem is that all those schemes never make enough money to sercice the debt and pay dividend.

So in a long run TIM's (like GTP) profit has to drop and debt to rocket. These trends have been accelerated to almost an unbearable point in recent years. This was why we would all see the share price slumping from $4+ a year ago to $1+ now. I reckon more down side risk for this stock (and GTP alike).

Not sure that's accurate. The majority of their horticultural projects are still in their early stages and aren't generating income yet. They achieved record new project sales in 2006. Most of these sales were Almond and Olive plantations, these crops haven't even had their first harvest yet.

[Rainmaker2000]

There is no debate over debt equity......clearly the company has high gearing and that's not optimal.....the suggestion on the thread though is that's the whole story when it is not.......

The debt has been used to buy 'assets' to the extent that the company has $520 net assets and now only trades at $400 market cap.......that is thus way below net tangible asset value....

So clearly some assets can be sold off to satisfy debt and the big question will be whether the assets are worth less or more than book value....

Just on harvesting the crops.........the crops are somewhat advanced as they are not plantations mainly.......just for balance, TIM's annuity stream will increase from $240 to 300 next year and increase every year into the future (for 20 years or so)....

[Jackob]

Not sure that's accurate. The majority of their horticultural projects are still in their early stages and aren't generating income yet. They achieved record new project sales in 2006. Most of these sales were Almond and Olive plantations, these crops haven't even had their first harvest yet.

I reckon Almond and Olive plantations actually have got harvests for ~5 years now. The "recurring incomes" from those projects are what TIM has always got to brag about for years now.

But the real problem is what is the total cost to generate those incomes, or say whether all the incomes TIM has got can cover all its running costs, including debt servicing (and/or paying rental on land), paying dividends and tax, etc.

TIM tells us it’s still making money albeit shrinking, but on the other hand we all see its debt increasing year by year.

Debt/equity = 173% now (by 30/9/2007) and I reckon it would easily surpass 200% in one year (by 30/9/2008). Well, where is the limit?

[Rainmaker2000]

Agree with that Jackob......hopeing their gearing is on way downwards as they have indicated and there are many reasons why it is........Horticulture MIS has ended for now....TIM actually has a backlog of projects which have not been passed on to investors so they don't need to acquire more........they have commited to a less capital intensive model for future investment products.........they are gradually packinging mature assets up to sell on to the TIM trust.......their free cash flows 'should' be building up....they have loans they could securitize in a 'deeper' market

All of this 'should' be happening and much of it management has said is happening......Be good if we could believe the company however.

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi folks,

TIM ... has been on a slide, since end-of-financial year on 30062006
and now expecting a blow-off low, middle of this week ..... :)

..... 05052008 should see a key reversal cycle come into play ... a cycle,
that has been VERY reliable for TIM in the past, so it would not be surprising
to see some buying late next week, as buyers anticipate this low.

Updated TIM chart, attached below, says it all.

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

[michael_selway]

:)

Hi folks,

TIM ... has been on a slide, since end-of-financial year on 30062006
and now expecting a blow-off low, middle of this week ..... :)

..... 05052008 should see a key reversal cycle come into play ... a cycle,
that has been VERY reliable for TIM in the past, so it would not be surprising
to see some buying late next week, as buyers anticipate this low.

Updated TIM chart, attached below, says it all.

have a great weekend

paul

:)

=====

Hi its actually not too bad at current prices

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 21.7 20.0 19.3 19.2
DPS 7.0 7.0 7.3 8.3

Just the risk associated with this one i am not too sure about atm

thx

MS

[treefrog]

:)

Hi folks,

TIM ... has been on a slide, since end-of-financial year on 30062006
and now expecting a blow-off low, middle of this week ..... :)

..... 05052008 should see a key reversal cycle come into play ... a cycle,
that has been VERY reliable for TIM in the past, so it would not be surprising
to see some buying late next week, as buyers anticipate this low.
Updated TIM chart, attached below, says it all.
have a great weekend
paul
=====
just checked the tealeaves in the bottom of my cup paul, says something about 'beware the tax book"......nope its 'beware those bringing tax losses to book May/June08" - couple of leaves looked to be touching but they weren't!

[Trader Paul]

Hi folks,

TIM ... has been on a slide, since end-of-financial year on 30062006
and now expecting a blow-off low, middle of this week ..... :)

..... 05052008 should see a key reversal cycle come into play ... a cycle,
that has been VERY reliable for TIM in the past, so it would not be surprising
to see some buying late next week, as buyers anticipate this low.

Updated TIM chart, attached below, says it all.

have a great weekend

paul

=====

:)

Hi folks,

TIM..... cycle comes in, right on TIMe ..... :)

"..... 05052008 should see a key reversal cycle come into
play ... a cycle, that has been VERY reliable for TIM
in the past ... "

Looking a head .... expecting TIM to be booming in
December 2008 / January 2009.

More later.

have a great day

paul

:)

=====

[sheggie]

Timbercorp's price is up over 20% since this morning. No announcements from the company. Any guesses what's occuring?

[brty]

Has everyone gone cold on this one???

Tax loss selling has finished, price still pitiful.

Trader Paul, That bottom of yours gave way, we are now 25% below that level. Any further comments/support areas???

brty

[bandicoot]

Even before the crash, their debt looked bad. The asset valuations seem optimistic, and they have little cash. Can they continue much longer?

[bandicoot]

...On the other hand: would not Timbercorp be in line for a windfall from the ETS? (Assuming they can survive long enough)

[Grumpy Old Man]

...On the other hand: would not Timbercorp be in line for a windfall from the ETS? (Assuming they can survive long enough)

Not sure because at least in most cases, they dont own the trees...and the land is not storing carbon. I imagine that the investor would obtain any benefit from the carbon rather than the scheme promoter. And only then if the trees are not cut down...which would kind of defeat the purpose in that the carbon is worth a lot less than the pulpwood value for paper.

[wooduk]

Hi,I just snooped in on your site ,usually I am at GTP,beying for the company,s blood.

So,Iwas curious at gtp future and if you would liketo comment on it?

[alphaman]

Prices of TIM's securities today.

TIM: $0.08
TIMPB (preference share face value $2): $0.115
TIMG (sub note face value $100): $8.6
TIMHB (bond face value $100): $30

It's interesting how in a situation like this the common share often appears overpriced compared to the hybrids.

[MrBurns]

Timbercorp - gone

Highly recommended by Charlie Aitken a while back:rolleyes:

padding to 100 characters....................

[alphaman]

Highly recommended by Charlie Aitken a while back:rolleyes:
[/I]
Isn't he the guy who has been very bulllish on MQG from all the way up and blames all MQG's problems on shorting?

[Fatcat]

Timbercorp - gone

Highly recommended by Charlie Aitken a while back:rolleyes:

padding to 100 characters....................

Mr Burns,
Like most other things, I'm guessing we can direct responsibility for their demise to Kevin Rudd?

[drsmith]

Timbercorp - gone

The Company update issued to the ASX from April 16 2009 very much to me read like a concession speech.

[krk004]

Interesting, the web has been woven! :eek7:

Safe haven for Timbercorp assets (http://www.weeklytimesnow.com.au/article/2009/04/29/74955_latest-news.html)

Thought this may come up as a potential issue at some time!

Not a holder,

[brty]

Hi,



Administrator Mark Korda immediately suspended Timbercorp's forestry and horticulture operations


But in an email to grower-investors, Mr Korda said payments should be continued.

Is it just me?? or does this really mean "we are not doing any more work on your 'investor lots' but we want you to keep paying?? Or maybe something like, "we are breaking the contract, but you still have to uphold your end".

This is just another corporate mess, with the shareholders/investors likely to end up with very little or nothing.


brty

[anthracite]

im glad to be out of this one a long time ago i did not take enough good profit after my entry but glad not to be holding now. there was a nice article in the herald_ sun this week on timber corp

[brownbag]

Invoices have been sent out to 1999 timber investors, but only about 40% have paid. Of course, they were sent out with a due date earlier than previous years, with often less than a week available for us to pay before the due date. The reason for this is to make it look like we are unwilling to pay, in the hope that they can wind up our project.

The only way the administrator can wind up our project is if they can prove to the court that growers are unwilling to pay invoices. So we must pay our invoices to protect our investment.

Some simple facts:
(1) If invoices are not paid, Korda Mentha may have the right to wind up the projects.
(2) If this occurs, there will still be a small return on investment for growers.
(3) Any unpaid rent/management fees will obviously be decucted from any returns by Korda Mentha.
(4) Therefore there is absolutely no advantage at all in not paying the invoice.

For more infrmation, contact the grower committee. They are the people representing you, not Korda Mentha. You can find their email addresses from the FAQ document on the Timbercorp website (I haven't posted enough to put email addresses in this document, but if somebody else has and can do so, it would be appreciated).

[hoppo]

Hi, I am enquiring about whats is actually happening to Timbercorp. My mum has a holding in it, and she has no idea how it works. She just pays the maintenance as due and writes something off on tax. If it gets wound up on friday does anybody get any money? She was expecting $33,000 on maturity this year, obviously that is gone but they are still sending out bills for insurance on the plantation. Where then will that money go. Tried ringing Timbercorp and they have a recorded message that doesn't give any hints as to one way or the other.Has she completely lost everything and then some?

[brty]

From todays Age newspaper......


Mr Korda was asked if the Timbercorp assets would be sold in a fire sale.

He said there was ''significant interest'' in Timbercorp's forestry assets, including the land and trees.

''We should go to market and explore that,'' he said.

That is interesting, it seems the administrator/liquidator is treating the assets of the investors as something he can sell, ie the trees. Surely the owners of the trees have some say as to what happens with their own property.

brty

[brownbag]

Hi Hoppo.
Your mother still owns the trees, but the administrator would like to wind up the project and take them away. If that occurs, she will receive some nominal value for the trees, but it will not be as much as it should. It is important that she pays the invoice, because the only way the courts will allow the administrator to wind up the scheme is if investors do not pay their invoices.

See my post just above yours for an explanation. If you need to know more, contact the growers committee.

If she has that much invested in the trees, she should make an attempt to find out as much as possible. Not paying the invoice may cost her in the long run.

[Junior]

Hi Hoppo.
Your mother still owns the trees, but the administrator would like to wind up the project and take them away. If that occurs, she will receive some nominal value for the trees, but it will not be as much as it should. It is important that she pays the invoice, because the only way the courts will allow the administrator to wind up the scheme is if investors do not pay their invoices.

See my post just above yours for an explanation. If you need to know more, contact the growers committee.

If she has that much invested in the trees, she should make an attempt to find out as much as possible. Not paying the invoice may cost her in the long run.

I'd be careful providing advice on whether or not to pay the invoice. It's very possible that growers will receive no return. Best to obtain legal advice, Macpherson & Kelley have put together a class action so maybe contact them.

[brownbag]

I have spoken to the growers committee and if this lady is in a 1999 project, the situation is very different for her as it is for those in more recent projects.

Just make sure that you contact the growers' committee before making decisions about not paying the invoice. They are there to represent the growers and they are doing all that they can to defend us against the actions of the administrator.

[drsmith]

Of possible interest to bluegum plantation investors is the price ITC (subsidiary of Elders (formally Futuris)) has secured for the wood to the end of the year.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090630/pdf/31j9sx9pj579nd.pdf

[Ciara Barritt]

There seems to be a lot of confusion about growers rights. For me the best outcome would be to sell the plantations to Gunns and cut my losses.

[brownbag]

The following is direct from the growers committee. It indicates the value of our plantations and the folly of not paying rent and allowing our investment to waste away:

There is an average of 190 cubic meters across the whole of the 1999 and 1998 projects.
They range from 180 to 200 cubic meters.
There is an average of 48% moisture content which concerts the 190 cubic meters to (X .52) to 98.8 Bone dry metric tonne per hector
Marubeni are contracted to buy this at $207.40 per BDMT ie 98.8 X $207.4 = $20,491 per hector
41,076 hectors X $20,491= $841,934,000.00
Harvest, haulage and shipping reduce the returns to growers by 60% ie $504,000,000 of work for Timbercorp forestry if they can keep it.
that would leave approx $8,195 per hector for the growers.
$8195 x 41,076 hectors= $336,617,000 return to growers.
They have invoiced $16 million to the 98/99 growers and collected $8 million.
Just $8 million more to protect a $336 million dollar asset.
Sounds like a no brainer
However with misleading and deceptive statements such as
“there is no use paying as the amount invoiced will not cover the cost of rent and Timbercorp is not in a position to make up the difference” Mark Korda at Mondays meeting 29th of June.
The amount invoiced for land rent is $355 per hector.
The major landlords Timbercorp, Wapress, Mirvac are receiving less than $300 per hector.
The small farmer landlords closer to $250 per hector.
How does he substantiate that comment in the context of the INVOICED growers.

[Messenger]

"Just $8 million more to protect a $336 million dollar asset.
"Sounds like a no brainer
"However with misleading and deceptive statements such as
"“there is no use paying as the amount invoiced will not cover the cost of rent and Timbercorp is not in a position to make up the difference” Mark Korda at Mondays meeting 29th of June.
"The amount invoiced for land rent is $355 per hector.
"The major landlords Timbercorp, Wapress, Mirvac are receiving less than $300 per hector.
"The small farmer landlords closer to $250 per hector.
"How does he substantiate that comment in the context of the INVOICED growers."

Mark Korda was indeed misleading! Shameful!

[Messenger]

5:22 AM, 10 Jul 2009
Stakeholders approve Smorgon, Baillieu Timbercorp plan

According to The Australian newspaper, Align Funds Management – in which both Melbourne families have a substantial interest – is believed to have sought an in-principle agreement from growers to go ahead with a restructure of some of the collapsed agribusiness company’s almond projects.

But the plan to create the world’s second-largest almost plantation business needs the approval of ANZ Banking Group Ltd, the newspaper reports.

“If Align can sign the heads of agreement with the bank in the next 24 hours, we propose to withdraw the proposal to change the responsible entity from the courts,” a spokesman from the Timbercorp Growers Group told the paper.

ANZ and Align have been in talks for weeks, the paper says.

[MugPunter]

Well, according to the Korda Mentha letter I received today, the best return I can hope for on my 2003 Eucalyptus prepay is 15% on the buy in (this doesn't include years of high interest loans, maintenance and insurance).

Still, probably better than what I'll salvage from Great Southern...

[exgeo]

I received a payment from the administrators (direct credit to my account on 25/3/11) for my TIMHB bonds, bought on the recommendation of The Intelligent Investor. Payment was $A56/bond. These bonds were also known as Timbercorp ASX Listed 2005 Bond.

Details can be found in a letter dated 7th Mar 2011 on the Korda Mentha website ("Bondholders Distribution Letter 7 March 2011"). According to the letter there may also be a small subsequent payment, on finalisation of the wind-up.

Just adding this, as I also own TODHA ("Timbercorp Orchard Trust"/"9.0% DEBENTURE MATURING 15-DEC-2010") and it took me a while to track down which one the payment related to. Maybe my post will save time for other readers, or remind them that they hold this investment, and are due a payment, in case they haven't received it yet.

[Judd]

This adds insult to the extensive injury but that is the risk when you go to litigation. And, no, I am not related or associated in any way, shape or form with the Judge who handed down the judgement.


THOUSANDS of investors who borrowed more than $450 million to invest in schemes run by collapsed agribusiness group Timbercorp are likely to be pursued over their debts after the comprehensive failure of a class action against the company.

The Victorian Supreme Court yesterday threw out a claim in which more than 2000 investors sought to set aside loans from the group that financed their investments.

Justice James Judd said the investors had failed to make their argument that they were not properly informed of the risks threatening their investments in Timbercorp's managed investment schemes.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/timbercorp-case-thrown-out-20110901-1jo5n.html#ixzz1WkPxX7w9