AWE - Australian Worldwide Exploration

[Afterglow]

There seems to be a fair bit of interest in this company
Does anyone have anything to say on this one

[Mofra]

I've been following AWE as well as NZO & PPP as the three are partners in the Taranaki Basin exploration - AWE have far wider interests than the other two (hence the greater market cap) but as far as I can tell NZO & PPP are more leveraged to upside if further positive results are released from the exploration. Don't know too much about their other interests sorry

[Afterglow]

Well it easy in hind sight to say that this one was a possibility

At time of first post 19th September $ 1.73
Closed on Friday at 15th October $ 2.03

It is frustrating sometimes not having enough money to make money lol

[TonyM]

Any thoughts on where this might be going?


Cheers


Tony

[GreatPig]

Tidy little breakout today.

Has now jumped above the previous high last October and into blue sky territory.

Cheers,
GP

[RichKid]

The reason for the breakout imo is the recent oil/gas discovery with Santos.

[mikeg]

Starting to look promising again. Anyone been following, and know why the recent rise?

[macca]

Hi all,

I would put the rise down to the fact that CASH is about to flow from Bass Strait fields. :2twocents :2twocents

Macca

[michael_selway]

Hi all,

I would put the rise down to the fact that CASH is about to flow from Bass Strait fields. :2twocents :2twocents

Macca

Not too bad this one, just wondering why AWE doesnt pay dividends? But it has been listed since 1997?

thanks

MS

[RichKid]

Not too bad this one, just wondering why AWE doesnt pay dividends? But it has been listed since 1997?

thanks

MS

It's still growing, cash goes back into the business (if there is any spare cash that is), nice volume today and break to all time high, let's see if it breaks-out cleanly or not.

[RichKid]

Here's a chart showing the push to a new high. I'll add another chart with commentary if another pattern emerges around this breakout attempt.

[Prospector]

Something seems to be giving this a nudge today in an otherwise red environment. I cant see anything public so was wondering what the buzz is all about?

I have held this stock for some time and took out all the recent offer SSP offer but the price continues to climb, but today up 8c?

[56gsa]

ABN research today suggested AWE at well below average PE - with EPS FY07 27, FY08 37 (from memory) looks one with growth

[RichKid]

ABN research today suggested AWE at well below average PE - with EPS FY07 27, FY08 37 (from memory) looks one with growth

Let's hope it's note a dodgy broker trying to jack up the price so a client can sell into the strength to exit. There is still some selling about as you would expect at or near a previous resistance level. Certainly is bucking the oil sector trend for the juniors. I hold too Prospector, the next round of exploration might give this a boost but still some time to go. BassGas project still causing problems.

[ctp6360]

This one is in a trading halt after an announcement, I'm just reading it now to see if its good news or not!

[lewstherin]

Bit of activity around AWE today...and it broke the $3 for the first time...

I got in at 2.90 anticipating the company going income positive at last, but wasn't expecting it to move this soon...

[GreatPig]

From my very limited EW experience, it looks like it could be in a wave 3 to me.

Been holding since it pushed up from the bottom (my wave 2 point) in late March. Bought at $2.61.

Cheers,
GP

[jet-r]

what is happening with AWE?
How come it has been going up from $2.81 to $3.38 today?? up 6 days in a row!!
while OSH and HDR are have a rough ride.

takeover rumour??

[lewstherin]

Haven't heard any rumours, but I thought the increase was reward for the Bass strait gas project ramping into full production this quarter.

[jet-r]

20% in a week for a mid cap share is abit too strong for me.

should i take profit or hold..... . .(we ask that question everyday dont we :D

[RichKid]

20% in a week for a mid cap share is abit too strong for me.

should i take profit or hold..... . .(we ask that question everyday dont we :D

EW might provide a rough guide, this is just a general comment on it from a monthly view, if oil takes off things may change.

[nizar]

20% in a week for a mid cap share is abit too strong for me.

should i take profit or hold..... . .(we ask that question everyday dont we :D

this company will see serious earnings growth from now until 2008

look how many projects due to start production this year or next year

for me, this is a long termer; but nothing wrong with taking profits; 20% in a week is nice

[RichKid]

this company will see serious earnings growth from now until 2008

look how many projects due to start production this year or next year

for me, this is a long termer; but nothing wrong with taking profits; 20% in a week is nice

The problems with earnings forecasts and other things in relation to the sp is that it could all be built in to the sp already or people may all just decide to take profits at once or very many other things could happen. Hence the benefit for us chartists of just reading the charts.

btw I've been using the wrong retracement numbers- chose linear instead of fib, didn't notice it til it was too late. Today was a very poor day, lots of selling continued after I posted the chart, I can see a minor impulsive count over the last few weeks, but if prices drop a bit lower (ie w4 goes below w1) then that count is gone too.

[RichKid]

.........
btw I've been using the wrong retracement numbers- chose linear instead of fib, didn't notice it til it was too late. .......

If anyone is confused about what I'm referring to it's my mistake- I'd used those numbers on another chart (not posted), only just realised I'd attached a different one.

Most oil stocks had a bad run today, due to oil falling imo, interesting to see how AWE goes, if this is the end of the cycle then there's a lot of retracing to do, 50%- 61.8% of the current cycle for a deep wave 2 retracement, although in this bullmarket we are unlikely to see that imo, maybe 31.8% of the total height. The previous degree wave 4 is the normal target from what I've seen in the textbooks. All speculation atm, let's see what the price does this month.

[RichKid]

I think the poor week has tilted the odds strongly in favour of the end of the major trend, volume confirms it both on the monthly (see chart above) and daily charts, sellers are distributing stock at these higher levels in large quantities and have the upper hand by far.

[Nick Radge]

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/images/tc/50487.png

This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.

[RichKid]

Thanks for the chart Nick, always glad to have an expert opinion to learn from.

This is a weekly chart I've attached, created at the same time as my monthly chart from a few days ago so it still has the old count and older prices.

The vertical lines show the time it took for wave 1 to complete, it gives you an idea of how the trend has accelerated and maybe a guide as to when to expect the next wave to complete/start. I actually don't know how to use time cycles yet, just came across the tool by accident and just left it there as a guide.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Thanks for the chart Nick, always glad to have an expert opinion to learn from.

Your opinion is good too RK. Don`t be too humble. C criticism.
The charts are good and educational. I`m an EW sceptic but am interested.
Thanks
Snake :alien2:

[kennas]

Yeah, thanks RK and Nick. Your posts are making me more interested in studying EW. Not a clue at the moment. Keep them coming! Hopefully, once I get my head around it I can contribute.

[GreatPig]

I have a slightly different wave count to Nick's, so am hoping this is just starting a wave 5 now (but a wave 1 will also do). Probably about to get Nick's wave C though... :p:

Bought in Friday for $3.09 & $3.10.

Cheers,
GP

[Casual_Investor]

hi.
What does everyone think about the potential of AWE?

It hasnt been doing greatly as of very recently. Is it about time we see the stock on its next big rise?? Or is this the beginning of a new trend...

[Casual_Investor]

AWE is recently getting dumped... a low of 3.05 today :O:O

I bought this stock for 3.04 back on the 18th of a may. It was going well for a while but now has reversed its trend.

What do you ppl think is the reason for this? Is this the start of something i dont know about??

Cheers

[Casual_Investor]

major shareholder who was a director of AWE sold all his shares than resigned. Any thoughts on this? Fundamentals of the company remain the same but isnt it just a bit dodgy that a director would not only sell his shares but then resign point to a possibility that he knows something we dont? :p

[barney]

major shareholder who was a director of AWE sold all his shares than resigned. Any thoughts on this? Fundamentals of the company remain the same but isnt it just a bit dodgy that a director would not only sell his shares but then resign point to a possibility that he knows something we dont? :p
Hi C/I I am only new here so I am just guessing myself. I have not looked at AWE at all (but I will now since such a massive drop)

My only thought from a human Phsyc point of view is that it would be quite normal for a Director to sell all his stock if he had decided to resign..What I am getting at is that even though he sold his stock first, in actual fact he would have already made up his mind to resign....so we actually see his actions in the reverse order to what he actually did........Man does that make any sense ...In saying that, perhaps the market reaction to this kind of news may be an over reaction, and the stock may well be undervalued/ buying op?
PS My best friend is a Phsycologist (he invests) He tempers a lot of his decisions by factoring in human reactions etc. Who knows, maybe there IS something bad going on at AWE, but just as possible the Director may have had an affair with the bosses secretary and HAD to leave, and the Co. may still be in good shape...........I think Phsycology has a much bigger bearing on market moves than many other indicators...... Cheers

[jet-r]

I spoke to one of the investor relation guy from AWE on Friday. Apparently, the director made some discovery in Africa and needed the money to fund the investment. He said that there is nothing looming and his resignation is purely because of his shareholding at AWE. There is no reason for him to stay on the board when he has no shareholding in the company.

[Casual_Investor]

of that is the case then then for sure its a buying opp and itll go back up to 3.35 very soon

[nizar]

Dont take notice of director selling as it can mean SEVERAL things

But director buying only means ONE thing

[barney]

of that is the case then then for sure its a buying opp and itll go back up to 3.35 very soon
I agree. Nothings really changed exept for Deussy collecting a nice 40 odd million profit in a short space of time. If the sp opens around $3.10 and heads north it has to be a big buy signal. If it heads south then the reversal might take a day ot two, or there is more to it than we know; but I doubt that.....the fact that they sold the 48 million shares easily to other instotutions etc for a reported $3.20 (thats what I read) has to say the share is "cheap" at $3.10. Bare in mind I am new to this and my opinions may be a little left of centre, but commonsense tells me that the sp drop was an over reaction by the market....time will tell.

[youngneil]

hi barney

"cheap" is right... :rolleyes:
actually institutions buying doesnt mean much... look at DOW and SAE as two examples that comes t mind.

if we can predict what all this means we'd all be rich! but besides the directors resignation and and share dump not much has changed fundamentally.

i suppose one way to look at it is... if the director is sensing something bad is looming, then why are all the other directors still holding?

Nizar,

with all due respect... (i really enjoy reading your posts and i think you are one of the most honest in all the forums you've posted)

directors buying can mean several things too... but perhaps not as much as them selling

regards

youngneil

[barney]

hi barney

"cheap" is right... :rolleyes:
actually institutions buying doesnt mean much... look at DOW and SAE as two examples that comes t mind.

if we can predict what all this means we'd all be rich! but besides the directors resignation and and share dump not much has changed fundamentally.

i suppose one way to look at it is... if the director is sensing something bad is looming, then why are all the other directors still holding?

Nizar,

with all due respect... (i really enjoy reading your posts and i think you are one of the most honest in all the forums you've posted)

directors buying can mean several things too... but perhaps not as much as them selling

regards

youngneil


Cheers Y/N I posted a couple of early posts a week or two back, and tried to sound like i knew what I was talking about........then I thought to myself who am I kidding.....Compared to most investors I probably know Jack Sh*t (You know Jack Daniels brother!!) But I am learning very quickly (when you lose as much as I did a few weeks back (borrowed from the bank as well :o ) you have to learn fast! I am actually in massive debt at the moment but I think my fundamentals for trading are improving and I wont let it beat me cause I'm a stubborn basket (don't have to bleep basket but if I'd said barsta*d that would be a different story)
Seriously I have received some great encouragement through this forum, but when someone tells me thay appreciate my honesty, that is pretty bl**dy cool cause I like to think of myself as a fair dinkum average bloke. I dont care if I dont make a fortune anymore, but I would love to earn back what I lost so I can start again (gunna be tough with very little capital though) As I've said in other posts....at least my wife didn't divorce me (I think she even still likes me!!..........go figure that one out) Anyway I'll raise a glass to you tonight Y/N cause you sound like a top bloke (It'll be a bottle not a glass....hope that's OK?) Cheers. :D

[dutchie]

The only reason a director would sell his shares in a company is if he thought he could get a better return on his money somewhere else.

So AWE may still have a good return for most punters but the director thinks he can do better elsewhere (i.e. AWE 20% return - new venture 30% return). Or he does know something negative and money in the bank will give a better return.

Cheers

Dutchie

[Casual_Investor]

Cheers Y/N I posted a couple of early posts a week or two back, and tried to sound like i knew what I was talking about........then I thought to myself who am I kidding.....Compared to most investors I probably know Jack Sh*t (You know Jack Daniels brother!!) But I am learning very quickly (when you lose as much as I did a few weeks back (borrowed from the bank as well :o ) you have to learn fast! I am actually in massive debt at the moment but I think my fundamentals for trading are improving and I wont let it beat me cause I'm a stubborn basket (don't have to bleep basket but if I'd said barsta*d that would be a different story)
Seriously I have received some great encouragement through this forum, but when someone tells me thay appreciate my honesty, that is pretty bl**dy cool cause I like to think of myself as a fair dinkum average bloke. I dont care if I dont make a fortune anymore, but I would love to earn back what I lost so I can start again (gunna be tough with very little capital though) As I've said in other posts....at least my wife didn't divorce me (I think she even still likes me!!..........go figure that one out) Anyway I'll raise a glass to you tonight Y/N cause you sound like a top bloke (It'll be a bottle not a glass....hope that's OK?) Cheers. :D


i think he was referring to nizar about the honesty thing hehe :rolleyes:

BUT.. i think your honest (ly in debt)!!! hehehe jkz

[Casual_Investor]

The only reason a director would sell his shares in a company is if he thought he could get a better return on his money somewhere else.

So AWE may still have a good return for most punters but the director thinks he can do better elsewhere (i.e. AWE 20% return - new venture 30% return). Or he does know something negative and money in the bank will give a better return.

Cheers

Dutchie

yes i agree. well mabe we should track what he does with this money he freed :p. If he just chucks it in a bank and leaves it there then id be worried hehe.

[barney]

i think he was referring to nizar about the honesty thing hehe :rolleyes:

BUT.. i think your honest (ly in debt)!!! hehehe jkz

:o :o
Yeah OK!!! Just when I thought someone was giving me a wrap I go and make a goose out of myself (wont be the last time either!!)...... Obviously been drinking too many of those bottles I mentioned........Cruel about the debt but. Anyway..........because I'm such an honest guy (just ask me) I dont mind telling everyone about my poor investment decisions.....AND I bet Y/N is a top bloke as well . Sorry about the mixup..............geez........ and I thought somebody apart from my wife actually liked me.........back to the doghouse...........now where was that bottle of beer???

[youngneil]

barney :D

after reading your post i felt a bit embarassed... so i quickly went through some of your previous posts here... and am proud to admit that my comment to nizar now extends to you too.

its refreshing to read posts by people who speak their mind and admit to their mistakes... and most importantly are brave enough to ask questions

there are too many on various forums who posts/lie about their successes just for some credibility... but those who have read their posts long enough come to learn who they are and realise very quicky how annoying it is

we all know very little in this game... so forums like these allow us little blokes to share additional ;) info that we may have heard from our neighbour or taxi driver... gives us all an advantage that the big institutions inherently get... and the more honest people we have posting the better!

please place imho where appropiate.

regards

youngneil

[barney]

barney :D

after reading your post i felt a bit embarassed... so i quickly went through some of your previous posts here... and am proud to admit that my comment to nizar now extends to you too.

its refreshing to read posts by people who speak their mind and admit to their mistakes... and most importantly are brave enough to ask questions

there are too many on various forums who posts/lie about their successes just for some credibility... but those who have read their posts long enough come to learn who they are and realise very quicky how annoying it is

we all know very little in this game... so forums like these allow us little blokes to share additional ;) info that we may have heard from our neighbour or taxi driver... gives us all an advantage that the big institutions inherently get... and the more honest people we have posting the better!

please place imho where appropiate.

regards

youngneil


Hey Y/Neil, If you felt embarrassed, imagine how I felt :o (X10)

Honestly, I felt that stupid that I thought I won't post anymore. I'm green I admit it (even at forum posting) I only started investing to try and make some extra cash to help put my daughter through Uni (she's probably about Casual Investors age (Blonde hair Blue eyes 36 24 34 but only 5 ft 2 ; gorgeous like her mother ......she was Dux of her school.........bit smarter than the old man!!!!) I stuffed up bigtime and am now "on a mission" to learn whatever I can to turn it around.

Thanks for the encouragement Y/N (I really do appreciate it) Geez there are some top blokes on this forum!

This is my 2 :2twocents worth for everyone out there. I'm getting older and my health 'aint what it used to be but I'll tell everyone this......Share trading, like life, is just a game......treat it seriously, but don't forget what is really important in life, and that is your family and friends (particularly family).

Good luck to everyone........geez, I sound like its my funeral......... hmm, what is that pain in my chest?? Cheers , Barney. :D (still smiling)

[nizar]

The only reason a director would sell his shares in a company is if he thought he could get a better return on his money somewhere else.

So AWE may still have a good return for most punters but the director thinks he can do better elsewhere (i.e. AWE 20% return - new venture 30% return). Or he does know something negative and money in the bank will give a better return.

Cheers

Dutchie

Dutchie

How about house/car/holiday/caravan/boatclear debt/etc/etc/etc or my favourite, "personal reasons"
Several several reasons to sell...

I know of an example earlier in the year, of i think it was BTV, a director's holding announcement was released to the asx (showing a certain director sold heaps of shares) shortly after a HUGE gain... Obviously many people would have been upset seeing this, and they emailed the director, he wrote back saying that the shares had actually been sold the day before and so the joke was on him as he actually lost money, and he said that he still holds heaps through his investment holding company and super (and verified this) and said he only made a small amount of money, and missed out on the gains! And then he said he was very confident in the long-term prospects of the company (which is why he still holds some), its just that he needed the funds for "personal reasons"

Also i remember sum1 i think on this forum said he will sell AEX when it gets to 10c (LOL, hes still waiting) and then someone said "is there not much upside after 10c" and the reply was, NO, i juz wanna buy a boat! Directors are just like normal people and though the impression is that they have heaps of cash (and wouldnt need to sell shares to buy things, they DO), and plus, some of the (more) successful people on this forum i reckon would give them a good run in terms of Net Worth

But they only buy if they think/know they will make money, and that the sp will go up, not for any other reason. If u find another reason, let me know, and let Peter Lynch know as well, coz thats wat i read in his best-seller book.... :D

[Casual_Investor]

awe getting smashed.. like all other energy stocks.
Now something is telling me now is a really good time to buy IF
- oil prices arent gonna continue to fall
- director selling had nothing to do with the fundamentals of the company

[Casual_Investor]

just topped up at 2.95.. couldnt resist the cheapness. This stock should go back up past 3.20 + very soon imo.

[matthass]

Hi All,

looking at the charts of Light crude/AWE they seem to follow each other pretty well (monthly). Light crude has lost value (value?) over the last month, AWE has now lost in line with the oil price.

-Can it be that the 'director debacle' sparked a needed price correction?
-Or, did all their brains walk out the door with him?
-Or, has it dropped too much? (AWE is ca. 10% below its normal trading range in relation to light crude).

Someone got a crystal ball to tell us what oil is going to do!?

Regards to all!

[Casual_Investor]

Well the director took his money out... He KNEW something was in the air...

I should have known. If you look at all oil stock over the past few months and look at AWE, youll have found that awe was going aginst the trend (staying steady or rising despite the drop in the XEJ) Now the massive correction has dropped aWE back in line with the XEJ.

If oil prices go back up and providing we get some good news about AWE's investment in New Zealand, it is in my opinion that this stock will run hard.

[matthass]

Hi all,

just thinking. A director selling his shares is a signal to the market (perhaps -ve). In order for the SP to jump back up to its previous level, we/they need a signal...

What is a definite positive signal though?

New director, oil price, news? I believe this perceived loss in value (or increase in risk/ loss in trust) can only be 'fixed' through time. New directors need to prove themselves, quarterly reports report only past events etc.

Therefore I think that there will only be a measured SP increase in-line with sales/revenues. (I still bought some more...!)

Best of luck to all.

[Casual_Investor]

i topped up too mate. It seems to be heading in the right direction... at least for now.

Two areas will commence drilling starting in two weeks (cutter then hector) followed by continuous drilling drilling in New Zealand right into Xmas and beyond so if we get good news from those activity reports as well as a steadying or even better an increase in oil, ALL the factors that may have contributed to its drop from 3.30 have been proven to be incorrect.

AWE uses $50 a barrel as the benchmark for its forecasts anyway so we are way above that and I dont think oil will drop below that. So all we need is good news from all the planned drillings!

Ohh.. and the director always planned to leave after he had heped fund one of the previous projects.

This company has not only begun to generate big revenue but has a very ambitious drilling campaign ahead. Its all upwards from here!!! (hopefully)

[michael_selway]

i topped up too mate. It seems to be heading in the right direction... at least for now.

Two areas will commence drilling starting in two weeks (cutter then hector) followed by continuous drilling drilling in New Zealand right into Xmas and beyond so if we get good news from those activity reports as well as a steadying or even better an increase in oil, ALL the factors that may have contributed to its drop from 3.30 have been proven to be incorrect.

AWE uses $50 a barrel as the benchmark for its forecasts anyway so we are way above that and I dont think oil will drop below that. So all we need is good news from all the planned drillings!

Ohh.. and the director always planned to leave after he had heped fund one of the previous projects.

This company has not only begun to generate big revenue but has a very ambitious drilling campaign ahead. Its all upwards from here!!! (hopefully)

Forward Terminal PE of 10 = $3.30

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 0.5 21.4 47.4 33.1
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

[Casual_Investor]

Hey folks.. Worth a read for those on AWE. Some exciting months ahead for this company :p


Crown Minerals Thursday, September 28, 2006


Australian Worldwide Exploration Ltd's nine well drilling program offshore New Zealand is expected to start next month and includes some large potential oil prospects.
The proposed order of drilling is as follows;

1) Cutter-1 PEP 38 259. Exploration well targeting the Late Cretaceous Shag Point Formation – target potential 80mmbbls. Operator Tap New Zealand (AWE 25%)

2) Hector-1 PEP 38 483. Exploration well targeting Kapuni Group 'C' sands (Mangahewa Formation equivalent, late Middle Eocene, NZ stage Ab, containing bulk of the Maui and Pohokura field reserves) – target potential >100mmbbls. Hector-1 is the first of four offshore Taranaki exploration wells – location delineated from 3D acquired during April 2005. Operator AWE (44.317%)

3) Tui oil field development well-1. Kapuni Group 'F' sand target. Operator AWE (42.5%)

4) Tui oil field development well-2. Kapuni Group 'F' sand target. Operator AWE (42.5%)

5) Tui oil field development well-3. Kapuni Group 'F' sand target. Operator AWE (42.5%)

6) Tui oil field development well-4. Kapuni Group 'F' sand target. Operator AWE (42.5%)

7) Tieke-1 PMP 38158. Exploration well Targeting Kapuni Group 'F' sands (Farewell Formation equivalent, Paleocene, containing reserves being targeted by the four Tui oil field development wells and oil reserves already produced from the Maui B platform) – target potential 15mmbbls. Operator AWE (42.5%)

8) Taranui-1 PMP 38158. Exploration well Targeting Kapuni Group 'F' sands - target potential 5-15mmbbls. Operator AWE (42.5%)

9) West Cape-1 PEP 38 481. Exploration well targeting Kapuni Group 'C' sands – target potential >100mmbbls. Operator AWE (42.5%)

AWE will be operator for four offshore exploration wells as well as the four Tui oil field development wells — all on the oil-prone western platform of the Taranaki Basin. They will all be drilled by the semi-submersible rig Ocean Patriot. This program will be the largest in AWE's 9-year history.

In addition AWE will be a participant in the Cutter-1 well to be drilled off Canterbury by the Ocean Patriot from next month. Cutter-1 has prospect potential of 70-80 million barrels, AWE says. The main exploration risks are reservoir quality and whether the prospect is charged with oil.

The Hector-1 exploration well in PEP 38483 is currently scheduled to be drilled in November-December. However, exact timing of Hector-1 will be determined by the higher priority activities for the Tui project. The AWE presentation says the Hector prospect, which will target the Kapuni Group C sands, has a prospect potential of over 100 million barrels. AWE says the Hector prospect has good structure, reservoir, source and top seal in a proven oil basin. The main risk for exploration is migration of the oil and fault seal. AWE has a 44.3% interest in PEP 38483, Mitsui E&P New Zealand Ltd 22.7%, NZOG 18.9% and Pac Pacific Petroleum NL 14.1%.

Four development wells will then be drilled by AWE in late 2006-early 2007 into the Tui, Amokura and Pateke oil fields, all in the F sands, which will be linked to the FPSO vessel Umuroa in the Tui oil project in PMP 38158.

Two exploration wells to be drilled inside the Tui mining permit area Tieke-1 and Taranui-1 would have a short tie-back distance to the FPSO if oil is found, which makes the economics very attractive. Both wells will again target are scheduled to be drilled in the second quarter of 2007.

The Tieke prospect has a prospect potential of 15 million barrels of oil and Taranui between 5 and 15 million barrels.

Another well with a large potential prospect is West Cape-1 in PEP 38481, directly west of the Tui Area fields. AWE says the F sands West Cape prospect in PEP 38481 has prospect potential of over 100 million barrels.

The West Cape prospect has a good reservoir, structure and top seal in a proven oil basin. In the AWE presentation it is noted that the main exploration risk is whether there is a seal at the fault that runs through the prospect. West Cape-1 is currently scheduled to be the last well drilled in the campaign in mid-2007.

AWE holds a 40% interest in PEP 38481, Energy Western Holdings Ltd (Shell) 20%, OMV New Zealand Ltd 25% and Todd Petroleum Mining Ltd 15%.

Meanwhile AWE has reported that a major shareholder New Zealand Overseas Petroleum (Holdings) Ltd (part of the Bermuda-based Transworld Group) has sold its entire 11% shareholding in AWE. The AWE shares were issued to Transworld in early 2006 in exchange for a 22.5% stake in the Tui oil field.

Transworld is owned by Mr. John Deuss, for six months a director of AWE who has now resigned from board of the Sydney company.

The former Transworld shares of AWE have been taken up by institutional investors who now hold approximately 65% of AWE shares, with the board and management retaining approximately 4%.

This program constitutes the largest offshore exploration drilling campaign since 2004 when Amokura-1, Pukeko-1, Kiwi-1, Pateke-1, Pateke-2, Takapou-1 and Tawatawa-1 were drilled, largely by the same joint venture participants.

[Casual_Investor]

Its finally on a run! Beware my friends... 3.20 next stop.

[Ken]

A broker's rating is a target price of 3.98, and is now on there recommendation list as a strong buy.

they also expect some signifcant exploration within the next few months.

[Seneca60BC]

Hi Guys

For the record I am also in AWE - actually I initially bought this stock at $1.50 and sold out at $2.00 - what an idiot i know - anyway I still see potential here bought again at $3.10 -

I think there is a 20% chance of the Cutter-1 producing - lets see in 2 weeks hehe - alot of upside with another 6 wells to be drilled in the next 12 months -

Casual_Investor are you still in with AWE?

Regards

[Casual_Investor]

Hi Guys

For the record I am also in AWE - actually I initially bought this stock at $1.50 and sold out at $2.00 - what an idiot i know - anyway I still see potential here bought again at $3.10 -

I think there is a 20% chance of the Cutter-1 producing - lets see in 2 weeks hehe - alot of upside with another 6 wells to be drilled in the next 12 months -

Casual_Investor are you still in with AWE?

Regards

hi seneca,

yep certainly am in with awe. Have more shares than I actually planned to.. but all is good. Heavily bought when it was drifting between 2.90 - 2.95. Initially bought at 3.02 earlier this year.

Initial target is 3.50 where I beleieve is the fair downside valuation of this company.. with upside easily being $6+. imo I still think this stock is majorly undervalued.

ps: If cutter comes through that would be a huge bonus.. we could see this stock shoot above 3.60 in a day just on that news... however.. I wouldnt be betting on it.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

AWE ..... looking for a rash of negative news
over the next few weeks, before a good start
to 2007 ..... :)

22112006 ..... negative cycle ... finances?

28112006 ..... negative light on AWE

12122006 ..... negative news expected here.

14122006 ..... short, aggressive slide here

15122006 ..... positive cycle ... finances???

18-21122006 ..... strong negative cycle ..... :)

27122006 ..... positive spotlight on AWE.

02012007 ..... positive news expected here.

happy days

yogi

:)

=====

[Seneca60BC]

I think in the 2008FY period we should see the stock price move towards the $4.00 level even with oil at $50 US.

[matthass]

Hi Yogi

what crystal ball tells you these dates?
Let us in on the secret..?!

5% up today...

[RichKid]

I think in the 2008FY period we should see the stock price move towards the $4.00 level even with oil at $50 US.
Seneca, please read the guidelines on posting on price targets- it's a sticky thread in the ASX stock chat forum: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4118. You need to provide a more detailed explanation for your projection or it will be in breach of ASF standards.
Thanks!

[3 veiws of a secret]

I think in the 2008FY period we should see the stock price move towards the $4.00 level even with oil at $50 US.

@ US$50 p/b that's speculation with a hint of guestamation....... :alcohol:
Sorry the emotion is my daughters choosing...... I prefer :bs:

[Ranger]

Annoucement out that Suncorp Metway Investment Management has recently bought a large amount of shares in AWE.

[Seneca60BC]

@ US$50 p/b that's speculation with a hint of guestamation....... :alcohol:


Yes it is purely speculation with guestamation.

[Seneca60BC]

Seneca, please read the guidelines on posting on price targets- it's a sticky thread in the ASX stock chat forum: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=4118. You need to provide a more detailed explanation for your projection or it will be in breach of ASF standards.
Thanks!

Ok sorry about that - should have read the rules - please remove the offending post.

Thanks
Seneca60BC

[reece55]

Well, it looks like its been a while since anyone has looked at this stock, so I thought I would start the ball rolling.....

Well, AWE has drifted with the POO since Jan, however of late its showing some promise. I note that both ABN Amro and Suncorp have taken an additional 1% of the stock of late and it has found some heavy buying interest in the 2.5 - 2.7 level - with oil showing some promise after breaking the $60 barrier, is this one worth a bit of a dabble? Certainly one of the cheapest oil stock's around and a very strong proven exploration history........ I like this one at present - any opinions here???

Cheers

[TheAbyss]

I have some AWE and also PPP based on their JV in NZ. Not sure what to make of them as they have been slow movers to date. :confused:

[Seneca60BC]

Hello Reece

Take my comments as a pinch of salt cause I am holding AWE hehe.

I believe AWE at this price level is "Value" - however you must have a holding period for to at least July 2008. I believe that Tui Oil field will come on line in July 2007 so we should see a substantial increase of revenue for the 07 Financial Yr.

Regards.

[Ferret]

I topped up at 2.70 a week ago.

I think the sell off was overdone. Their weaker than expected production report in Jan was due to one off factors. And now oil has moved back to $60 so I'm thinking AWE will start to creep up again.

Seems no real success so far from their current exploration drilling, but I figure they are value at the current price and the potential upside from a success with the exploration is a freebie.

Ferret

[Knobby22]

I have bought in also yesterday, at $2.65.
The price appears reasonable value but really I am hoping for some exploration success in NZ as well as a rise in the oil price. I don't hold out much hope for the Perth drillings as their partner basically said they don't expect much.

[Seneca60BC]

I think we can expect more weakness today with AWE.

[smoothsatin]

Bounced hard off resistance line today, tough to buy in until it can break out

[reece55]

Bounced hard off resistance line today, tough to buy in until it can break out

Finally, she breaks out of resistance.....

AWE has moved nicely through that 3.10 - 3.15 barrier that has been holding it back for almost 8 months now...... Will be interesting to see if it can close on the highs, volume looking good though. Oil is looking up, the energy sector appears to moving whilst most of the other sectors are looking overheated. This one is my preferred stock to gain exposure from the sector.

Cheers
Reece

[Seneca60BC]

yes - at last some positive movement!! I think it should continue in that direction. ;)
what do you guys think ?

[reece55]

yes - at last some positive movement!! I think it should continue in that direction. ;)
what do you guys think ?

Hi Seneca
It could continue, as we have now broken through a key resistance area with gusto.....

But personally I think from here we will most likely retrace back to the previous resistance line which will now form support @ 3.15 or so.....

I have taken my profits @ 3.31 today, but this was a nice quick CFD trade when I saw resistance was broken yesterday..... Longer term holders may wish to hang on here for more.....

Cheers
Reece

[canaussieuck]

This is breaking out from recent highs now, still a ways to go yet to break into all time highs, but getting closer.

really not sure whether to take a posy here or not, last years had weakness set in as Nick pointed out.

:2twocents

Cheers,

[Ferret]

Considering they recently announced they wouldn't meet their target of first production from Tui in June, the price movement is very strong.

I'm happy to hang on to this company and believe it has heaps of upside, but also quite a bit of risk.

Ferret

[reece55]

Time to start cashing in your chips on this one IMO.......

That 3.60 level is heavy resistance, can't see a close above there anytime in the future. Today, we rallied early again, but closed off on 1 cent from the open and we had heavy volume....... I notice SUN has dropped off as a substantial shareholder recently, I would expect they still have more to cash in yet.....

For what it's worth, a very senior oil analyst spoke to me about AWE a few months back. He told me that they would have a stellar run to 30 June, but stated that fundamentally, the science of one of their wells means it will be difficult for them to ever meet their output targets and all of the wells were margin line..... I don't trade on this type of thing myself, but interesting insight nevertheless....

Cheers
Reece

[Ferret]

Thanks for sharing that, Reece.

I like to invest long term, so the resistance line at 3.60 doesn't worry me.

But its another story if their assets can't deliver the goods. I'll keep an eye on this one.

Ferret

[brettc4]

In just over a month AWE has dropped from an intraday High of $3.78 on 29/06 to an intraday low of $3.12 on 2/08.

The dow dropped another 280 points overnight which is likely to cause a drop here on Monday.

Does anyone have this currently on their radar??

To me it looks like there is a little bit of support around $3.07, that being said, this most recent action since 22/05 started with a gap up day, so is this a part of the share price covering that gap?

On the whole, it looks like the funds have been buying more than seeling, for instance AMP now has a 7.41% share, ABN Amor has 6.41%, on the flip side a few have sold.

Comments?

[Gundini]

You would have to say the falling oil prices haven't helped this one, along with the recent negitive market sentiment. The chart looks horrible :eek: with the next landing around the $2.60 mark. Should be very strong support here, if it reaches that price.

Surely way oversold on future earnings, and I will be backing up the truck if it gets anywhere near $2.60... Always on the watchlist, waiting for a firesale.

[Dutchy3]

Long today after a period of consolidation and a reasonable move up. Market otherwise rather lackluster today. A return to 3.60 - 3.70 perhaps ....

[Dutchy3]

Closed this out for a small loss today ... took out my entry point on the close by a few cents ... not the sort of position I need to be involved with ...

[roland]

AWE has been moved to the Aegis BUY list:

AWE has made the transition from an explorer to an oil and gas producer. The Casino gas field (25% AWE), the Cliff Head oil project (27.5%) and the BassGas project (30%) are in production and will provide steady long-term cash flows. The Tui Area Oil Project (42.5%), offshore New Zealand, also came on-stream in mid-2007. The company's focus will now return to exploration as it seeks additional reserves to extend its production profile.

AWE's two-year growth outlook is very strong. Earnings will continue to build through CY07 as projects ramp up and there will be a major step change now that the Tui Area Project is operational. The PE ratio is expected to improve significantly over the next two years as multiple revenue streams are established.


Anyone with knowledge of AWE like to comment?

[Ferret]

Announced 30% increase in Tui reserves today. And has been trading at low levels despite record oil prices.

Might be time to back up the truck!

[pajm]

Not much happening on this thread for a while. Article in Fin. review today with details on further upgrade on Tui reserve. Great to see how it continues to exceed expectations. Very pleasing and SP reflected accordingly. SP certainly recovering well for these turblent times. Rock on!:)

[Real1ty]

Things are certainly very quiet in here.

Excuse my ignorance regarding T/A but does the following chart qualify as i head and shoulders formation or does the latest leg up cancel it?

Thanks in advance

[reece55]

Once again AWE is testing the upper boundaries of it's resistance zone today...

But it seems no matter how high the POO goes, AWE remains stuck in a trading range it has been in for a year. It can't see it breaking through, looks like the buyers have once again lost the strength to push this one any higher.... Anyone for a test of 3.00???

Cheers

[oldblue]

Hi reece
I'm hoping you mean $4 !
A reasonable person might see this as possible, given the POO and AWE's fundamentals. Personally, I don't see it happening for a while, certainly not before the ARQ/AWE business gets completed. ( Failing some sensational news on the exploration front.)

:)

[oldblue]

Well, AWE has well and truly vaulted the $4 barrier, at least for the present!
Up another 15c today to $4-37, presumably on the strength of announcement re extension of the Tui FPSO contract and the positive implications for Tui production.

;)

[reece55]

What a spike today for AWE..... got all the way up to 4.71, wouldn't want to have bought up the top right now..... Sellers stole the party?????

This one has had a huge increase since the $3 level in March..... Oil continues to march on!!!

Cheers

[vishalt]

I've bought into this stock.. it's looking awesome.

Over 14 years of reserves, extremely strong cash flows, management will *have* to declare a dividend now.

The merger with ARQ is also fantastic, ARQ has plenty of good producing assets.

Good long-term buy and takeover target this company imo, I talked upstairs to the analyst who covered it.

[The_Snowman]

I've bought into this stock.. it's looking awesome.

Over 14 years of reserves, extremely strong cash flows, management will *have* to declare a dividend now.

The merger with ARQ is also fantastic, ARQ has plenty of good producing assets.

Good long-term buy and takeover target this company imo, I talked upstairs to the analyst who covered it.

Any update on your thoughts since then? :banghead:

Are we allowed to say things like perhaps a CFD short is in order..........?

[The_Snowman]

Just checked the Blog of Vishalt -------> no updates since August 24, 2007, I think he is AWOL :rolleyes:

[Seneca60BC]

LOL i wonder whether he is still in AWE? Took a nice beating today LOL

.................................................. .........

[michael_selway]

LOL i wonder whether he is still in AWE? Took a nice beating today LOL

.................................................. .........

Hm its not too bad, pity it has no dividends

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 64.2 60.4 49.0 41.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

http://www.******************/images/stockpricecharts/600_420/AWE.jpg

[Seneca60BC]

Here is some positive comments - AWE gets a mention:

1606 [Dow Jones] Australian fund manager Lincoln is positive about its investments despite equity markets turmoil, says is reassured by RBA Governor Stevens' comments that risks surrounding more bank writedowns in Australia are "light years" from those in other countries. Lincoln CEO Elio D'Amato says economy "is not going to stop" and market will regain sanity. He's upbeat about stocks such as CSL (CSL.AU), JB Hi-Fi (JBH.AU), BHP Billiton (BHP.AU), Leighton Holdings (LEI.AU), Mount Gibson Iron (MGX.AU), Australian Worldwide Exploration (AWE.AU), Westpac (WBC.AU) and QBE Insurance (QBE.AU). "We feel there's significant value in the market," he says. "We got great comfort from the address from Governor Stevens...and we therefore feel that once the market regains some sanity it will be the quality businesses that rebound first." (LKM)

[tommymac]

While the oil price has dropped, this company has got to be a good prospect.

Very little debt and good earnings. Strong cash position which from recollection is actually more than its total debt.

The share price has been hammered recently due to the oil price and stockmarket, but I think it has fallen too far as shown by a nice rally over the last few days.

I bought recently and have a small loss, but think its a great opportunity.

What do others think?

[kgee]

Yeah they had a good right up in the West Australian saturday paper

Credit Suisse gave them an "outperform" rating after AWE's decision to pay a special fully franked dividend of 10 cents a share...and value AWE at $4.17

might be worth a look:2twocents

[oldblue]

Yes, AWE have a very strong balance sheet with $339m cash at 30 June 2008. Total liabilities of only $178m. The 10c dividend recently announced will absorb $52m but there's a good chance that cash has increased since 30 June.

Four major oil and gas producing assets of which Tui is the biggest cash generator. While Tui production is estimated to decline fairly rapidly from next year, oil will continue to flow for several years and further exploration and development drilling scheduled for 2009 could well increase reserves yet again.
PoO is of course the big unknown factor but AWE looks to be one of the better value Aust O&G companies IMO.

Disc: Holding AWE.

;)

[oldblue]

Apparently Morgan Stanley put out a report a few days ago in which they picked their six best stocks from the Asia/Pacific region.
AWE was one of the six and the only Aust stock.

Has anyone seen this?

[nick2fish]

Agree...POO IMO will not hold these depressed barrel prices for long. At 2003 levels now and we have adderd several million oil consumers since then. AWE has plenty of exploration upside as well with 15 drills planned for the next 18 months. SP has alot of upside :2twocents

Disc: Holding

[legs]

With oil prices starting to rebound strongly was wondering where ppl see this at?

I got back in about 1 week ago.

Will the oil price hold up?

[captain91]

Australia Worldwide Exploration (AWE), will have approx $1.13 billion in cash by Dec this year, if oil holds around the $70 p/b mark. With 470 million shares on issue and no debt, this equates to approx $2.40 per share in cash alone ! Add in $1.60 in NTA, (excluding the cash), then how can this stock keep trading around the $2.40 / $2.50 mark ??
I think some of the big oil players may be circling shortly.

Is my view of this company's balance sheet to simplistic folks ???

Any thoughts ??

I do have a holding interest in AWE

[kennas]

Australia Worldwide Exploration (AWE), will have approx $1.13 billion in cash by Dec this year, if oil holds around the $70 p/b mark. With 470 million shares on issue and no debt, this equates to approx $2.40 per share in cash alone ! Add in $1.60 in NTA, (excluding the cash), then how can this stock keep trading around the $2.40 / $2.50 mark ??
I think some of the big oil players may be circling shortly.

Is my view of this company's balance sheet to simplistic folks ???

Any thoughts ??

I do have a holding interest in AWECan you expand on the $1.13billion in cash by end of year calculation?

They had $340m left according to their June Qtly.

Last Qtly revenue was about $90m and it's been falling.

They have 770m shares issued @ $2.60 for a MC of about $2b, from what I can find.

Nice cah position, maybe they'll take another junior out?

[skc]

Australia Worldwide Exploration (AWE), will have approx $1.13 billion in cash by Dec this year, if oil holds around the $70 p/b mark. With 470 million shares on issue and no debt, this equates to approx $2.40 per share in cash alone ! Add in $1.60 in NTA, (excluding the cash), then how can this stock keep trading around the $2.40 / $2.50 mark ??
I think some of the big oil players may be circling shortly.

Is my view of this company's balance sheet to simplistic folks ???

Any thoughts ??

I do have a holding interest in AWE

Can you show where the numbers from? They feel way off. e.g. Their June quarterly report said its cash reserve was only $340m. So where did you get $1.13b?

Edit: Kennas beat me to it. He was indeed "On the prowl"

[oldblue]

Today's profit report shows $356m cash.

Adding to that balance will be a slow job now, given expected field decline from Tui and planned exploration expense.

[oldblue]

Today's profit report shows $356m cash.

Adding to that balance will be a slow job now, given expected field decline from Tui and planned exploration expense.

Here's why AWE won't be hitting $1b cash this year, or next.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25981964-5005200,00.html

[inenigma]

Nice triangle forming though...

Also, does anyone know why some threads have a minimum of 100 characters and other threads do not ????

[eddyeagle]

That is a nice triangle indeed!

Drilling program set to commence shortly.

Fat Prophets put a buy on it today and said it should have a run towards $4 as speculators pile in.

[eddyeagle]

Finally - a bit of movement on AWE! That triangle seemed to just go on forever, but the stock has finally jumped out of the trading range and up above $3, on the Rockhopper 1 drilling news and stronger oil price. Keep it coming!

[Ferret]

The market really seems to have it in for AWE at the moment.

With the rig on its way to NZ for the very exciting Hoki prospect drilling, it's hard to understand why the sellers currently have the upper hand.

Very tempted to pick some up around $2.50, but the current trend is so clearly down....

[roland]

Well, we are close to our 3 month low of $2.50. I'm not very good at charts, but can't read a lot into the technicals other than a slow and steady fall. If we fall below $2.50 we may go south for a little further unless the POO of picks up.

I notice that Morningstar have AWE as a good buy at this level.

[oldblue]

AWE have announced that Hoki 1 is about to start drilling.

Market seems pleased (relieved?).

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100305/pdf/31p38ycnydz5z6.pdf

:cool:

[phantomcamel]

AWE have announced that Hoki 1 is about to start drilling.

Market seems pleased (relieved?).

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20100305/pdf/31p38ycnydz5z6.pdf

:cool: so am I ;)
I did very well with AWE some time ago & re-purchased recently as I think they have good potential

[Ferret]

Perhaps the market also liked the news of strong gas flows from the well in Yemen.

Anyway, couldn't help myself getting caught up in the excitement of the drilling start at Hoki and bought today. Really just a punt on how the Hoki well goes, but the upside could be very good.

[eddyeagle]

Took quite a hit today:

Australian Worldwide Exploration(AWE) down 6% first thing after providing an update of their Hoki-1 drilling results. AWE down 6% to 262c.

[roland]

AWE has been struggling for a while. The lower oil price and a bad drilling report triggered some pretty heavy selling.

There are some expectations of weakness to continue, with a target of $2.30 or even as low as $2.20

I hold but won't be adding unless we reach these support levels.

[legs]

AWE has been struggling for a while. The lower oil price and a bad drilling report triggered some pretty heavy selling.

There are some expectations of weakness to continue, with a target of $2.30 or even as low as $2.20

I hold but won't be adding unless we reach these support levels.

So you topped up Roland??? I held, but regretted not selling after the drilling results and getting back in at 2.10

[roland]

So you topped up Roland??? I held, but regretted not selling after the drilling results and getting back in at 2.10

No, I haven't added to my position - doesn't really seem to be much reason to yet. Looks like it's going to flop around between $2.00 and $2.12 for a while.

Would like to see a couple of high volume days and a break above $2.20

[buysellmestuffed]

I got in at 2.02 closed at 2.13 i can't see any reason they won't get close to 2.18 tomorrow buyers are there :) .

They needed some good news to form a base , that was formed about the 2.00 - 2.10 range . That base was gained without the good reports .

The share price did spike a few days ago to 2.18 , i reckon some news got out before the masses new .

They now have good news and are going forward .

I'm looking at 2.30 plus in the near term . not looking at selling .

I reckon it's going up :D some more good news and its gonna take off . I would like the latest oil and gas find to be a decent amount , ratified to commercial to underpin the recent share rise though .

Thats in my limited knowledge ,and opinion , the shares were trading well without this information previously high $2 range .

They have no debt $350 million in cash , a great drilling program , fantastic fields in which to drill in , and enough resources to drill for 10 years without cash injection .

That to me is a no brainier , I'm on and awaiting the rise ;)

Yes i do hold the stock , no its not for sale :p:

[buysellmestuffed]

.

I would like the latest oil and gas find to be a decent amount , ratified to commercial to underpin the recent share rise though .



Yes i do hold the stock , no its not for sale :p:

Opps i sold it , that oil find was no good , not commercial . I was hoping it was to under pinn the share price .

Only problem is they drill holes and havn't hit a good deposit as yet . Still there share price is rallying again , don't know why .

[jancha]

I got in at 2.02 closed at 2.13 i can't see any reason they won't get close to 2.18 tomorrow buyers are there :) .

They needed some good news to form a base , that was formed about the 2.00 - 2.10 range . That base was gained without the good reports .

The share price did spike a few days ago to 2.18 , i reckon some news got out before the masses new .

They now have good news and are going forward .

I'm looking at 2.30 plus in the near term . not looking at selling .

I reckon it's going up :D some more good news and its gonna take off . I would like the latest oil and gas find to be a decent amount , ratified to commercial to underpin the recent share rise though .

Thats in my limited knowledge ,and opinion , the shares were trading well without this information previously high $2 range .

They have no debt $350 million in cash , a great drilling program , fantastic fields in which to drill in , and enough resources to drill for 10 years without cash injection .

That to me is a no brainier , I'm on and awaiting the rise ;)

Yes i do hold the stock , no its not for sale :p:

Have you gotten off the floor yet?:banghead:

$1.60!!! How low can you go?
Can someone shed some light on reasons of AWEs continual slide in the market?
I've been buying in stages thinking it cant go any lower..:eek:

[Seneca60BC]

Well since the world oil price has been slipping and this is an oil producer, then you will obviously see a fall in the SP. No matter how good the books look, no one is going to buy into a company which could be facing declining EPS growth and ROCE.

Cheers.

[TheAbyss]

Have you gotten off the floor yet?:banghead:

$1.60!!! How low can you go?
Can someone shed some light on reasons of AWEs continual slide in the market?
I've been buying in stages thinking it cant go any lower..:eek:


Until they identify a commercial quality field they are faced with diminishing supply (income) from their current operations hence the SP slide.

They had a spurt on the back of a find however once this find proved to be non commercial in nature the SP slid again. The latest Tui field update today indicates predicted production to decrease from 4.80 MBOE to 2.84 in 2011 which is a hefty slow down hence the SP (PPP sp also down accordingly).

Plenty of positives for AWE and also PPP for that matter however the time to buy will be when they have some exploration success and not before (unless they buy something with all that cash).

:2twocents

[jancha]

Well since the world oil price has been slipping and this is an oil producer, then you will obviously see a fall in the SP. No matter how good the books look, no one is going to buy into a company which could be facing declining EPS growth and ROCE.

Cheers.

Even with oil being at $30 a barrel a year or so ago they weren't trading this low!!
Their return on capital would be better now than back then.
They still have one of the strongest growth potential as oil companies go and the demand for oil will be around for some time to come.

Dont see that as being the obvious answer Seneca but thanks anyway.

[jancha]

Until they identify a commercial quality field they are faced with diminishing supply (income) from their current operations hence the SP slide.

They had a spurt on the back of a find however once this find proved to be non commercial in nature the SP slid again. The latest Tui field update today indicates predicted production to decrease from 4.80 MBOE to 2.84 in 2011 which is a hefty slow down hence the SP (PPP sp also down accordingly).

Plenty of positives for AWE and also PPP for that matter however the time to buy will be when they have some exploration success and not before (unless they buy something with all that cash).

:2twocents

Thanks Abyss. Makes a bit more sense.
Maybe taking over ADI in the Eagleford could help them achieve some positive news further on as well as gain knowledge in the Shale gas play for their interests in WA.

[buysellmestuffed]

Opps i sold it , that oil find was no good , not commercial . I was hoping it was to under pinn the share price .

Only problem is they drill holes and havn't hit a good deposit as yet . Still there share price is rallying again , don't know why .


Have you gotten off the floor yet?:banghead:

$1.60!!! How low can you go?
Can someone shed some light on reasons of AWEs continual slide in the market?
I've been buying in stages thinking it cant go any lower..:eek:




As above i sold out when that find was not commercial , i was hoping it would hold the value of the stock , lucky for me i was going to go long on this stock as all the info is good except they can't hit the jackpot , i reckon they will , but when ?? and what will the share price be , they have a couple of wells there drilling that only have a 1000 ft or mts to go to find out .:eek7:

But i'm thinking i would rather wait until they find something first .
i'm liking the price but i don't like to gamble that much. i would rather pay more for the stock when they hit some oil .

[Seneca60BC]

Even with oil being at $30 a barrel a year or so ago they weren't trading this low!!
Their return on capital would be better now than back then.
They still have one of the strongest growth potential as oil companies go and the demand for oil will be around for some time to come.

Dont see that as being the obvious answer Seneca but thanks anyway.

One thing I learnt is that what happened in the past is old news - what will happen in the future drives Share Prices higher. Last year, AWE may have had a number of speculative drilling plans coming up so investors pushed the stock higher is anticipation, but now with those results on the negative side, there is not so much keeness to stay in the stock so investors may not me so excited with AWEs future prospects.

Cheers
Seneca

[vincent191]

:banghead: I bought in last year at $2.60!!! :banghead:

With my luck as soon as I sell the sp will go up. Sorry boys & gals, I am hanging on.

[Seneca60BC]

Sorry to hear Vincent - hopefully for you and the others, the SP will improve once we get out from this poor sentiment.

As a point of interest, Nymex Crude was trading at about $65 one year ago compared to $72 today.

Cheers
Seneca

[jancha]

Sorry to hear Vincent - hopefully for you and the others, the SP will improve once we get out from this poor sentiment.

As a point of interest, Nymex Crude was trading at about $65 one year ago compared to $72 today.

Cheers
Seneca

Another point of interest is AWE was trading at around $2.45 a year ago when oil was $65.

Point being the POO isn't the obvious answer as you stated but more the underlying reasons as Theabyss has pointed out for their slide.

[legs]

I just topped up on them today... bal sheet is still very healthy and i am very long on them... they will hit oil one day (sooner than you think) and the SP will look like a spurter!

[oldblue]

I just topped up on them today... bal sheet is still very healthy and i am very long on them... they will hit oil one day (sooner than you think) and the SP will look like a spurter!

I fully agree that they look to be oversold but why buy them when the SP's in such a pronounced downtrend?

I have them on my watchlist, waiting for the trend to change.

;)

[The_Snowman]

let's look at the 2007 decline, from May high at $4.52 to October low at $1.68 - down $2.84.

certainly moves when it wants too :(

[The_Snowman]

And now the 2010 decline from January high of $3.17 down to today low of $1.61 = $1.56

Showing a possible Wave 3, if there is to be a market bounce soon, a Wave 4 may develop, then the Wave 5 even lower

[The_Snowman]

:banghead: I bought in last year at $2.60!!! :banghead:

With my luck as soon as I sell the sp will go up. Sorry boys & gals, I am hanging on.

Yes, when price gets down to half price at $1.30 and you are ready to sell, please let us know so we can BUY ;) and I thought I was a good contrary indicator :eek7:

[Uncle Len]

Having read the last dozen or so commentaries, one factor not mentioned re. the recent decline in AWE's share price is the impact of the newly announced extension of the existing oil RRT. I'm not full bottle on the proportion of AWE's resources that may be impacted by this latest proposed impost (has to get through the Senate), but it certainly won't be positive to earnings. AWE appears to be only marginally profitable, so the market may be joining the dots with regard to this latest attempt by a socialist government to screw private enterprise. For this reason alone, I'm hesitant to buy AWE.

[buysellmestuffed]

03/06/2010 9:46AM Dow Jones AWE: Proposed New Australia Resource Tax Regime Not Material (headline only)
03/06/2010 9:46AM Dow Jones AWE: Only 3.5% Of Reserves Affected By Proposed Tax Regime (headline only)
03/06/2010 9:43AM AWE`s UBS presentation June 2010 (22 Pages)


http://www.aspectfinancial.com.au/docserver/01069180.pdf?fileid=01069180&datedir=20100603&edt=MjAxMC0wNy0wNysxMzoxOToyMSs0ODArNTYwOTYrYW5kcm V3d2VzdCtyZWRpcmVjdCtodHRwOi8vd3d3LmFzcGVjdGZpbmFu Y2lhbC5jb20uYXUvaW1hZ2VzaWduYWwvZXJyb3JwYWdlcy9wZG Z0aW1lb3V0Lmh0bWwraHR0cDovL3d3dy5hc3BlY3RmaW5hbmNp YWwuY29tLmF1L2ltYWdlc2lnbmFsL2Vycm9ycGFnZXMvcGRmZG VsYXllZC5qc3A=

[Ferret]

Well, the much anticipated 2010 drilling program is drawing to its close and has achieved **** all. I remember the last big progam disappointed too.

Gotta wonder whether AWE's geology capability is up to scratch.

Still holding, but only because I can't handle crystalising the losses and will instead put them in the bottom drawer for something out of the shale play.

[oldblue]

Yes, AWE certainly raised expectations for its latest programme and now suffers the inevitable disappointed reaction via the SP.

But it only goes to remind us of the risky nature of the oil exploration business, even in proven oil provinces such as offshore Taranaki. Meanwhile, AWE's still making good income from its four producing fields.

I'm holding.

[vincent191]

The sharemarket is so fickle, if oil is so easy to find we will all be millionaires. Sure AWE's 2010 drilling program had been disappointing but it hardly justify the sp dropping 40%.

I will still hold, AWE still has a lot of good prospective drilling targets and they are still profitable and no debt. Pity I have run out of funds otherwise I will accumulate a little bit more, there are worst punts out there than AWE.

[mr. jeff]

The sharemarket is so fickle, if oil is so easy to find we will all be millionaires. Sure AWE's 2010 drilling program had been disappointing but it hardly justify the sp dropping 40%.

I will still hold, AWE still has a lot of good prospective drilling targets and they are still profitable and no debt. Pity I have run out of funds otherwise I will accumulate a little bit more, there are worst punts out there than AWE.

yeah I'm with you on the fickle market, however there may be more to this situation relative to the broker commentary of "overreaction" as they are pumping their reserves down now and not extending reserves.

Does anyone have the interest in performing a cash flow valuation on AWE as they are getting down to exceptionally low SP levels...? or have they a valuation on the worth of AWE with just existing assets and current production? I see that one of the big firms has just put a $2.40 price target on them....

I own AWE - unfortunately.

[oldblue]

Personally, I've never seen much value in trying to "value" oilys - and the market doesn't seem to take much notice either.

Too many unknowns/variables, such as future value of reserves when actually produced; how much of those reserves will actually be recovered; how quickly will cash be burned on exploration, etc. Shareprices rise and fall on expectation/realisation of success with the drill.

;)

[mr. jeff]

Personally, I've never seen much value in trying to "value" oilys - and the market doesn't seem to take much notice either.

Too many unknowns/variables, such as future value of reserves when actually produced; how much of those reserves will actually be recovered; how quickly will cash be burned on exploration, etc. Shareprices rise and fall on expectation/realisation of success with the drill.

;)

Fair call there, that does make sense.
Does this exploration hiccup (lets call it that until we've managed to lose all our money with AWE) raise the likelihood that they will burn more earnings on exploration commitments to try and chase down good news? what is the usual track they take? My previous comment referenced their good earnings, but they might not necessarily make it anywhere near the bottom line of their annual report at this rate.... thoughts?

[jancha]

Awes quarterly out & down 4% today.
I Didn't think their quarterly was that bad and yet the drop.
Unless it has more to do with the announcement of the manageing director Bruce Woods giving notice.
Any thoughts Old blue & Co

[Agentm]

OUTLOOK

The June quarter has been disappointing for the company
and our shareholders. The New Zealand drilling program
to date has not produced any major success and this has
been immediately reflected in the steep decline on AWE’s
share price. By any measure, and notwithstanding the high
risk nature of the oil and gas exploration business, the past
quarter has not lived up to our aspirations in our quest to
grow the company and provide shareholder wealth.
There has been some success in the overall AWE drilling
campaign; in the Perth Basin, in Yemen and in the Bass
Basin. In the Perth Basin, the Redback-2 well encountered
an extension to a small gas discovery and will be tied
into the production facilities shortly. In Yemen, the Al
Meashar-1 well has recovered oil from a complex fractured
basement reservoir. The second well in Yemen has also
seen some initial encouragement. A successful appraisal
of the Trefoil gas field was also delivered earlier in the
year. These wells lacked the high profile and associated
potential of the large New Zealand program and may be
overlooked in the share price decline.
The board and management team will review the results
of this drilling campaign, in which substantial data has
been acquired, and subsequent study could lead to the
identification of further opportunities in the Taranaki
Basin.
In parallel with these events, the core production business
has continued to perform well in line with guidance, with
annual oil and gas production of 6.1 million BOE and a
strong jump in the recent production trend after the
conclusion of the BassGas maintenance program. This core
production business, based on a diversified reserve base in
Australia and New Zealand retains substantial value for the
company and its shareholders.
Our new ventures and acquisition teams have continued to
pursue opportunities for AWE and during the past
3 months the team has completed the BassGas acquisition
and successfully conducted the on-market takeover of
Adelphi.
The company remains financially strong, with solid
cashflow, a robust cash balance and undrawn lines of
credit.

[oldblue]

There's some good points about the quarterly, particularly confirmation that production and revenue increased following maintenance to some facilities.

But the "disappointing" word put a dampener on the market, despite there being nothing new there. Psychological more than anything else but the market moves as much on sentiment as on news.

:cool:

[jancha]

OUTLOOK

The June quarter has been disappointing for the company
and our shareholders. The New Zealand drilling program
to date has not produced any major success and this has
been immediately reflected in the steep decline on AWE’s
share price. By any measure, and notwithstanding the high
risk nature of the oil and gas exploration business, the past
quarter has not lived up to our aspirations in our quest to
grow the company and provide shareholder wealth.
There has been some success in the overall AWE drilling
campaign; in the Perth Basin, in Yemen and in the Bass
Basin. In the Perth Basin, the Redback-2 well encountered
an extension to a small gas discovery and will be tied
into the production facilities shortly. In Yemen, the Al
Meashar-1 well has recovered oil from a complex fractured
basement reservoir. The second well in Yemen has also
seen some initial encouragement. A successful appraisal
of the Trefoil gas field was also delivered earlier in the
year. These wells lacked the high profile and associated
potential of the large New Zealand program and may be
overlooked in the share price decline.
The board and management team will review the results
of this drilling campaign, in which substantial data has
been acquired, and subsequent study could lead to the
identification of further opportunities in the Taranaki
Basin.
In parallel with these events, the core production business
has continued to perform well in line with guidance, with
annual oil and gas production of 6.1 million BOE and a
strong jump in the recent production trend after the
conclusion of the BassGas maintenance program. This core
production business, based on a diversified reserve base in
Australia and New Zealand retains substantial value for the
company and its shareholders.
Our new ventures and acquisition teams have continued to
pursue opportunities for AWE and during the past
3 months the team has completed the BassGas acquisition
and successfully conducted the on-market takeover of
Adelphi.
The company remains financially strong, with solid
cashflow, a robust cash balance and undrawn lines of
credit.

Thanks Agentm
Just a few well placed words & down she comes even though that would have been factored in prior to the quarterly.
Interesting to see what they do with ADI's old set up.
Any chartist with likes of Nun ect see where AWE is heading?
Seems to be holding around the $1.60 mark.

[jancha]

Thanks Agentm
Just a few well placed words & down she comes even though that would have been factored in prior to the quarterly.
Interesting to see what they do with ADI's old set up.
Any chartist with likes of Nun ect see where AWE is heading?
Seems to be holding around the $1.60 mark.

Not too many parties from the ASF interested in Awe by the look of it.
Glad i got in at base cost $1.59. Up 6.5% today & looking positive.:D

[mr. jeff]

YEah good work, but be careful.
P/E is still high, earnings are not going to improve that much so there is still some significant factoring in of discoveries. It appears to be good buying relative to previous prices, but is it going to recover quickly? It may just be because of the temporary bullish market performance...Was considering beefing up my position, but not until there is some reliable info out there. For now though you seem to have picked the bottom, well done!

[skyQuake]

Citi upgraded it today - saw some decent buying. Posted some bullish stuff about it todday
.................................................. ................

[jancha]

YEah good work, but be careful.
P/E is still high, earnings are not going to improve that much so there is still some significant factoring in of discoveries. It appears to be good buying relative to previous prices, but is it going to recover quickly? It may just be because of the temporary bullish market performance...Was considering beefing up my position, but not until there is some reliable info out there. For now though you seem to have picked the bottom, well done!

Cheers mr jeff & agree with what your saying.
Hence selling half at $1.72 for 10% profit today.
Keeping the remainder for medium to long term & if they fall significantly back down i'll probably pick up the half i sold back up.
They have been disappointed of late but still have a lot of other nice prospects out there & only need something half positive to head north into the $2 range.
Imo:)

[nioka]

I used to hold AWE but decided that their production was only funding their wildcat exploration. I sold. Recently when they "stole" ADI I thought about getting back into them on account of the ex ADI leases and their bright prospects. I believe that they may save AWE. However if it is the ex ADI assets that will prove the best earner for AWE then wouldn't it be better to buy into companies that are concentrated on devellopment of that field. Therefore the funds that I may have put into AWE have gone into AUT and EKA. That's my decision and so far I can see no reason to change. If there is an SP rise in AWE it may pay to look to see if that rise is really attributable to the Sugarloaf assets.

I am assessing AWE as a possibility to do swap trading with AUT and EKA but my opinion is that it is the dearer of the three. :2twocents

[jancha]

I used to hold AWE but decided that their production was only funding their wildcat exploration. I sold. Recently when they "stole" ADI I thought about getting back into them on account of the ex ADI leases and their bright prospects. I believe that they may save AWE. However if it is the ex ADI assets that will prove the best earner for AWE then wouldn't it be better to buy into companies that are concentrated on devellopment of that field. Therefore the funds that I may have put into AWE have gone into AUT and EKA. That's my decision and so far I can see no reason to change. If there is an SP rise in AWE it may pay to look to see if that rise is really attributable to the Sugarloaf assets.

I am assessing AWE as a possibility to do swap trading with AUT and EKA but my opinion is that it is the dearer of the three. :2twocents

Hi noika
From a trading perspective Aut & Eka dont seem to be moving much at present.
I saw Awe as an opportunity buy as i felt it had been oversold on their disappointing announcements.
Awe are still earning good capital with no debt.
Although depleting reserves they still have many prospective holdings.
There is speculation as to why AWE went after Adi.
In huntleys review it states that it's reasons for taking over ADI could be because of it's 19% interest in Yeman, or to gain experience from the shalegas play (as well as the obvious turnover) for their future WA shale gas project closer to home.
Anyway i do hold AUT also but atm its just going sideways.

[The_Snowman]

Chart update since last posting July 5, see posts 137 & 138 :)

I believe general market conditions may be heading lower; will post again in September and October :cool:

[mr. jeff]

Is it about to start looking brighter for AWE ?

they seem to have wells in good production again and are still pulling plenty of product up.
Does the chart offer any clues - I look at the reducing volume and think that perhaps the selling is beginning to fizzle. Maybe no re-rating until they have some successful exploration again ?

[roland]

Must be getting close for a good entry into AWE. The little range triangle thingy is closing, volume is falling away with some signs of seller exhaustion with each test of the low.

I believe that we should now be looking for a final high volume break to the low to clear out the weak holders and sub $1.47 stop lossers.

What do ya reckon?

[3aq1e]

awe seems to getting back on track??? what do you guys think ? :confused::eek7:

[mr. jeff]

Well I think that people are just buying whatever they can get their hands on and as most that have owned awe in the past feel, the shares are cheap (relative to before this drop in price). Oil seems to be getting more popular again and awe is still pumping that reliably.

I think that they may have turned the corner but it is risky as I am suspecting that if the market cools then they may come off fairly quickly back to the 1.50 level.
Then if they have a successful drill hole, things will become more positive and maybe some decent buying will return very quickly, you would be flat out getting in below 1.85.
So in summary: You could buy them and wait for some news / continuation in buying; or you could wait for the news / confirmation of reversal and then buy. Note that they have been at these levels since July.
OR you could avoid completely.

I will buy some shares, then I'll repost and tell everyone here to buy as much as possible. Just wait a few days please. thanks. Maybe I should get a newsletter circulated?! (This is all tongue in cheek).
Every time I have bought this share, they have managed to drop about 20% in a shortish space of time, so if you all want, I could buy some first then you could get in cheaper ? Let me know. I seem to have the (magic touch)^-1

Good luck everyone, I am sure there are a LOT of people watching AWE at the moment waiting impatiently....Please excuse the bad humour.

[roland]

I just saw a notice from Dimensional Fund Advisors notifying the ASX of a substantial sell ending last week.

Must be kicking thenselves now with today's 9.5% rise.

Not a good look for a Financial Advisor

[eddyeagle]

I just saw a notice from Dimensional Fund Advisors notifying the ASX of a substantial sell ending last week.

Must be kicking thenselves now with today's 9.5% rise.

Not a good look for a Financial Advisor

Classic stuff!

I was considering getting rid of these recently... glad I held on - things are looking up!

[vincent191]

Next year 2011 promises great things for AWE. It's oil & gas production is expected to significantly increase and that will push AWE to greater heights in 2011. Their gas discovery in the Perth basin is better than expectations and it's proximity to infrastructure and it's deal with Synergy will see cash starting to flow as soon as end of 2010.

Major breakdowns in Bass straits and Tui have been fixed and run up to full production is planned in the December quarter. The Tui exploration program had been most disappointing and now been scaled back and efforts are diverted to some of it's very promising new discoveries in Yemen and Sugarloaf USA.

All in, it looks like AWE is over the worst and will commence it's recovery and happy days again in the new year.

[mazstar1980]

I saw a lot people bagging AWE for a while and perhaps for good reasons but I think the fundamentals were too good to be ignored. It was nice checking my shares this morning!

I'm wondering if it's worth buying some more - what do you think the share price might reach if things go well?

[basilio]

Just noticed that AWE has hit a long time low at $1.18. Nonetheless it is rated as a strong buy and according to analysts ratings EPS should go up 5 fold in the next 12 months. Is this another case of overlooked value or are we missing something ?:confused:

In particular I remember they took over EDE last year and have an interest in EKA. Given the performance of the other oil shale company AUT in the last 12 months this seems a real puzzle. I would have thought the EDE investment would be starting to bear fruit ?

[oldblue]

Just noticed that AWE has hit a long time low at $1.18. Nonetheless it is rated as a strong buy and according to analysts ratings EPS should go up 5 fold in the next 12 months. Is this another case of overlooked value or are we missing something ?:confused:

In particular I remember they took over EDE last year and have an interest in EKA. Given the performance of the other oil shale company AUT in the last 12 months this seems a real puzzle. I would have thought the EDE investment would be starting to bear fruit ?

Not sure you have the right info here, basilio.

EDE - Eden Energy is listed and major shareholder is Noble Energy with 20.8% according to the company's website. ???

Who is EKA ???

Do you have a link to any of the analysts' ratings?

Cheers

[basilio]

Not sure you have the right info here, basilio.

EDE - Eden Energy is listed and major shareholder is Noble Energy with 20.8% according to the company's website. ???

Who is EKA ???

Do you have a link to any of the analysts' ratings?

Cheers

OOPs!! Brain fade in that last post. I meant to say Adelphi (ADI) . I had shares in them and they were taken over by AWE at what many shareholders then thought an unreasonably low price.

Since then AUT which is also into the Eagleford Shale has gone from strength to strength and EKA which is also involved in the aame play has somewhat stagnated.

Re the analysts. I was doing some research on my sharebrokers site.

Forecast Earnings EPS (c) PE Growth (%)

Year Ending 2011-06-30 2.40 50.20 0.00
Year Ending 2012-06-30 12.10 10.10 397.50



Year Ending 30-06-11 EPS (c) PE Growth (%)
Median 2.40 50.20
High 8.00 15.30
Low
7 Days Ago 3.10
30 Days Ago 3.10
60 Days Ago 2.00
90 Days Ago 2.00
Number of Analyst Estimates: 6


Year Ending 30-06-12 EPS (c) PE Growth (%)
12.10 10.10 397.50
15.70 7.80 97.50
7.60 16.10
13.30
13.30
11.40
11.40
Number of Analyst Estimates: 6
Current Analyst Recommendations (What are the analysts recommending?)

4 Strong buys 1 hold




Strong Buy = 1, Mod. Buy = 2, Hold = 3, Mod. Sell = 4, Strong Sell = 5

(Sorry for the jumbled figures. I havn't quite got hold of reconstructing the tables.)

[oldblue]

Thanks for the clarification, basilio.

The term "PE growth" threw me for a while, particularly as AWE made a net loss after tax of $28.9m in the y/e 30 June 2010 ($21.1m after adjustment for abnormals) so of course the EPS and P/E for the year was negative. Any profit this year will produce a mathematically impressive result from that starting point although the interim net loss of $49.8m to 31 December 2010 doesn't bode particularly well for the full year. Unless there's been some sizeable abnormal gains from asset sales along the way.

I hold a few AWE but don't share the analysts' optimism. Neither, it seems, does the market but I hope that it, and I, are both wrong.

;)

[notting]

AWE has been rising on rising volume for 11 trading days straight, whilst the rest of the market has been tanking. It's up over 3% today alone. Anyone know anything?

[nioka]

AWE has been rising on rising volume for 11 trading days straight, whilst the rest of the market has been tanking. It's up over 3% today alone. Anyone know anything?
I suggest that todays rise would have some relationship to the BHP investment in the US oil shale operations of Petrohawk and the ownership of producing oil wells there following the take over of ADI last year.:2twocents

[skc]

AWE has been rising on rising volume for 11 trading days straight, whilst the rest of the market has been tanking. It's up over 3% today alone. Anyone know anything?

They are running into a strong resistance band around $1.45-$1.48 which is where prices stalled for the day. It would be a huge ask for AWE to go past this on first go imo without any newsflow, and a retracement to test $1.30 (of monthly pivot also 50% retracement of recent leg up) may be needed before it heads back up. That will form a potential invert head and shoulders pattern.

43652

[notting]

Thanks Nioka and SKS, for those great replies. Lovely chart. Very helpful.
Will tuck my wallet away for the moment and wait till something more confirming happens.

[skc]

Thanks Nioka and SKS, for those great replies. Lovely chart. Very helpful.
Will tuck my wallet away for the moment and wait till something more confirming happens.

It's just a chart. For all I know AWE could bolt on Monday or drop 25%...

[notting]

Don't worry, I take full responsibility for my interpretation and response to it.
I must admit that I was thinking that it must have a saw head because it slammed into that resistance line pretty hard.Might have cracked something this time! It's seems great value and Morning star like it's value there.

[notting]

Making another run. Wonder if it will get through this time?
Daily volume looks ordinary however looking at a 10 day chart is a bit more interesting.