OXR - Oxiana Limited

[Joe Blow]

This stock has been bouncing back and forth from the early 70's to the late 80's for the past couple of months.

What will it take for it to break through $1?

[Guest]

A MIRACLE!

[Joe Blow]

A MIRACLE!
It sure feels like that. I've been in and out of it a couple of times recently without much success.

I definitely feel that OXR is a good long term prospect. At the moment it just seems a bit bogged down.

[RichKid]

Hey Joe,

I saw a headline on Monday (30Aug) in the AFR (finreview) that OXR had been downgraded by brokers. Couldn't read it all but worth a look.

Looks like it's safe to accumulate at around 70c. Upside will probably kick in once people flow back into metals and energy in the next month or so. It's been quiet for the last two months for those sectors- well, for the stocks I've watched anyway!

RichKid

[GreatPig]

From its chart, it looks to me like it peaked in Nov/Dec last year and is now gradually trending downwards.

Cheers,
GP

[RichKid]

Hi Folks,

Just wrote a few paras but lost it! (got logged out for some reason). So here's a summary:

IMO, Oxiana is highly leveraged to the gold price (Just compare graphs).
I don't see it falling below 70c support in the near term but I'm waiting for the trend to reverse or at least consolidate before buying in.
I reckon $1 will fall before long, but maybe in a few months. Just have to wait for the next rally in gold.
Gold is heading south again (see thread on gold) but will pick up and run further than oil did this year, IMO.
Haven't had time to check out the financial review article on the OXR downgrade yet.
(these are just my views (not recommendations) and I am most likely wrong- considering some of my recent trades- but the gold/OXR charts are worth comparing)

good luck!

RichKid

[Redwing]

i believe thier last 1/4 report was disapointing.. they have great copper exposure also..

could be a time to buy and hold?

time will tell i guess..have a friend who loves OXR

REDWING

[RichKid]

Redwing,
Yep, that was probably what led to the downgrade (couldn't find the article I referred to earlier on the downgrade- maybe I saw it somewhwere else). Always an opportunity when it's going down, just have to wait for the reversal.

Come to think of it the price may not find its way down to 70c if gold bounces up again. But maybe the recent report may still weigh on the stock, I mentioned 70c as a psychological level since there isn't any obvious support below 75c.

RichKid

[RichKid]

Okay, I reckon $1 next stop for OXR, gold rising has given it a big legup and the brokers are thumbs up on it again. It didn't fall as far as I expected and the bad report is now history. Full steam ahead as OXR has broken the downtrend.

[cges]

Does anyone have any news why OXR stopped trading today?

[GreatPig]

All the announcement says is that OXR and MNR have both halted trading pending some announcement. Trading to resume either on Wednesday or after the announcement is made.

No idea what the announcement might be.

Cheers,
GP

[stockGURU]

Been a while since this thread has seen some action so I thought I'd bring it back to life. OXR is perpetually on my watchlist as it has been a reliable range trading stock.

When GP last posted eight months ago OXR was trading around the $1 mark, it closed today at $0.91, up 2 cents. Market cap. currently around $1.15 billion.

Any views on this one particularly in view of their recent acquisition of the Golden Grove mine from Newmont? What has been keeping it down? :confused:

[Knobby22]

I own this stock.
I think it is still undervalued.
Why is it down? Well the price has risen substantially and profits are being taken. Also it is being valued at a two years timeframe.

I believe profits will be higher than brokers forecasts and will rise further come the third year.

The takeover is midly positive assuming metal prices stay high. I think they will.

[RichKid]

Been a while since this thread has seen some action so I thought I'd bring it back to life. OXR is perpetually on my watchlist as it has been a reliable range trading stock.


Yep, sure is trading in a band, in fact the first post by Joe mentioned that. We are again seeing it fall back to the bottom end of the range and then recover again to be mid channel. Here's the chart, slightly slanting lower support level or you could draw a broad horizontal line around 80c, issue then is stop level as it has dipped toward the mid 70's.

I guess medium term we may see some consolidation and then a powerful breakout through resistance. BUT that's not on the chart yet so it could just as easily fall through support. High turnover in the last year. My money is on ranging for a few months.

[muttley]

Message from the MD

"In respone to rumours in today's press concerning a potential takeover offer for Oxiana by Xstrata,Oxiana advises that it has had no contact from Xstrata and is not aware of a pending bid from that Company"

Does anyone have any details?

[Caliente]

both companies deny it at present. I've been holding this stock for yonks. Good to finally see some driving force behind it again!

[bvbfan]

I've had these from 10c levels but sure enough everytime I sell some they end up going for a run (sold at 98c this time)

[muttley]

Some upward movement on this one today.Does anyone know why?

[bvbfan]

Won't know for sure for a few days, but could be some buying ahead of takeover offer
Personally I don't think thats it, more likely presentation at Diggers and Dealers got some interest from overseas players.
Finanlly seeing the true value emerge

Still kicking myself for selling at 98c
:mad:

[RichKid]

Won't know for sure for a few days, but could be some buying ahead of takeover offer
Personally I don't think thats it, more likely presentation at Diggers and Dealers got some interest from overseas players.
Finanlly seeing the true value emerge

Still kicking myself for selling at 98c
:mad:

Yeah, I agree, hard to know when a takeover is on, so many candidates out there. And we don't know what exactly xtrata is after. Let's see if there is a pullback after today's rise to an all time high.

I have not read this stock well at all. Yet another pattern to learn from for me.

Tech, this must be on your scans by now for sure.

[Knobby22]

Didn't sell mine but then I'm an investor and could see no reason to sell.
I have not held them for a year yet in any case and so would be very hesitant to sell and pay the full capital gains tax.

[Caliente]

Hi Knobby, just a couple of fast questions. whats the difference between selling before a year and selling after a year in terms of CGT?

I'm pretty new to the whole shares thing although I've paper traded for years. Thing is I made a profit on JHX (sold in less than a year) and then immediately bought into another stock, when will I be liable to pay the CGT for JHX?
Thanks!

Cheers maite
- Caliente

[Knobby22]

No worries.

If you hold an investment, stock or property, for less than a year you pay the full capital gains tax. If you hold it longer, you pay half.

[kesso]

Caliente, as I understand, if your are trading as a business and accepted by the ATO as trading as a business, any sales made within a year is taxable income, from this you can take away the costs ie sale price-purchase price plus costs = taxable income.

If you are an individual and you sell after a year it is then capital gains, and being an individual you get 50% off the capital gains tax.

[Caliente]

Thanks! Well I'm a student (read young and inexperienced!) and I don't really have much of an income, maybe 2-3000 per annum outside of shares. So does that mean the sale of the stock will be added to my taxable income or is it still going to be chaged at 50% of the CGT rate?

"After writing and reviewing what I've written, I'm thinking that I need to tell the ATO that trading in shares is my business. That way I can take advantage of my not paying tax yet situation."

BTW - I'm really loving this sharemarket and loving ASF. I've just dipped my heels in for real but so far everything I've touched has gone up *yay*. I think I've come in at the right time! :)

Cheers for the replies kesso and Knobby

[kesso]

The first $6000 odd is tax free to Australian residents. To claim tax deductions for trading you have to be able to prove it is a business. Its a bit complicated. If you can, revenue then from trading is added to your taxable income ando f course you then have the allowable deductions.

[Knobby22]

As Kesso suggested, if you earn less than $6000 over a year then there is no tax payable.

I suggest you buy Personal Investment Magazine and look at the tables on the back. This will tell you all you need to know as a student.

[Caliente]

ok - cheers for all that - now onto the trading ;)

[Buda]

WHATS up with OXR everyy body is talkin about it not :p:

[keepitreal]

its just broken out..

[mikeg]

Looks as if it is off on another run up. Giddyup.

[Ann]

Hi mikeg,

I know this stock has almost cult status. The stockholders aren't owners they are groupies! ;)

However in fear and trepidation I am going to dare to suggest that it has been running too hard too fast and is about to fall back on itself. Perhaps to test $1.59. Maybe even try to close the gap down to $1.56 ?

You try running up a sheer wall and see how far you get! :p:

[laurie]

Trust you ann to spoil the party!

cheers laurie

[RichKid]

Hi mikeg,

I know this stock has almost cult status. The stockholders aren't owners they are groupies! ;)

However in fear and trepidation I am going to dare to suggest that it has been running too hard too fast and is about to fall back on itself. Perhaps to test $1.59. Maybe even try to close the gap down to $1.56 ?

You try running up a sheer wall and see how far you get! :p:

Well even if it falls the trend is still firmly up, just a matter of how you trade it...I agree, gravity appears to affect stock prices as well....but not as predictably (alas!).

[laurie]

And if someone is sniffing around to do a take over bid e.g. Xstarta then it will continue the upward trend until someone else joins in the bidding...JMHO

cheers laurie

[Ann]

Trust you ann to spoil the party!

cheers laurie

Sorry Laurie, I don't mean to really :o

I have been a very good girl and haven't once said anything unkind about MGX. I hope you noticed. I saw you there and thought no....I won't hassle Laurie by shoving up one of my charts. :)

Anyway, nothing wrong with a share price doing a bit of consolidation. It strengthens its framework.

[laurie]

Sorry Laurie, I don't mean to really :o

I have been a very good girl and haven't once said anything unkind about MGX. I hope you noticed. I saw you there and thought no....I won't hassle Laurie by shoving up one of my charts. :)

Anyway, nothing wrong with a share price doing a bit of consolidation. It strengthens its framework.

Yeh,yeh, ok you were kind about MGX thanks still pi$$ed off though!!

cheers laurie

[Ann]

Sorry Laurie

[laurie]

With the market ann.......not you!

cheers laurie

[mikeg]

I agree with you Ann, the price could well fall back hard, but this is one that I have deceided to hang on to for the long run.

[Caliente]

Can SOMEBODY say Oxiana :D

The price rise is having devastating impacts on my digestive system!!!

While I'm having a ball watching my little baby grow how much is too much?

Seriously? I'm getting close to pulling the abort trigger. Any other holders with thoughts???

[Knobby22]

I am looking at the big Ox a bit too.
It has gone up a lot faster than expected, but remember the gold price is a factor. I will waiting until the half year report before I will consider selling.

[Caliente]

Interesting.

But what triggers are you looking for in particular in the half-year report Knobby22 that will make you consider a sell? Do they even report bad news in those things? :sly:

[The Barbarian Investor]

A friend just sold out of Oxiana (he had $50k purchased at 0.80c)..from what he said $2 appears to be its peak(resistance) and he will wait to buy in again at a later stage..

Any thoughts??

[nizar]

im holding onto mine...

im looking at 3.00+ by year end. feb22 they release FY2005 results which i think will suprise.. gold outlook is strong, no reason 4 OXR 2 go down, plus now its in asx100, heaps of institutional buying is happening...

nothing wrong with locking in profits, but i think sp will appreciate further..

[bvbfan]

If these commodity prices stick around for 12months or more (if they last to 2007-8) then OXR could be $3-4 easily if its not taken over
Copper revenues should double and cashflows should be around $600million for this year.

Apply you own multiples and I think higher prices are justified.
Other forums have a good analysis of OXR so worth checking them out

I've had them from 10c so I'll stick it out for $3-4 at this stage

[laurie]

My only concern at the moment is when are they going to pay their first dividend :2twocents

cheers laurie

[bvbfan]

I don't think its likely until as least 2007-8, I'd rather the funds be used to grow business and lessen the debt needed for Prominent Hill development

But I am looking forward to that divident when it comes, hoping it will be around a 100% yield on my initial investment :)

[Caliente]

ahhahaha! that would be something wouldn't it!

Is Oxiana your first 20-bagger?! Quite an impressive feat bvbfan - my hat to you good sir.

[laurie]

Oxiana will be floating it's Uranium to TOE Oxiana & Minotuar will hold 25% each the float will happen in March @ .25c each Oxiana & Minotuar shareholders will have first preference of the 72million stock available to the public
www.toroenergy.com.au

cheers laurie

[Knobby22]

Noice.

[bvbfan]

Is Oxiana your first 20-bagger?! Quite an impressive feat bvbfan - my hat to you good sir.

Yes, and the first stock I bought too
:D

PNA done ok too for me too

Few other ones out there with potential 5 baggers, although ones moved a bit so maybe only 4x in it now

[shy]

The last price for the day was 1.94. Yet somebody bought 1,690,000 @ 1.963 at 4:20. This is $3,317,301 worth. Very big parcel for one trade.

I also don't understand how can somebody trade after the closing round at 4:15? :confused:

Trade Number (s) Time Last Traded Price Volume Change Value Number of Trades
1279 4:20:35 pm 1.963 1,690,000 +0.023 $3,317,301 1
1245 - 1278 4:20:32 pm 1.94 613,918 -0.005 $1,191,001 34
1235 - 1244 3:59:56 pm 1.945 62,506 +0.005 $121,574 10
1233 - 1234 3:58:27 pm 1.94 5,000 -0.005 $9,700 2
1225 - 1232 3:58:14 pm 1.945 158,000 +0.005 $307,310 8
1224 3:56:40 pm 1.94 200 -0.005 $388 1
1223 3:56:34 pm 1.945 5,000 +0.005 $9,725 1
1221 - 1222 3:56:28 pm 1.94 32,146 -0.005 $62,363 2
1219 - 1220 3:54:44 pm 1.945 8,880 +0.005 $17,272 2

[laurie]

I also don't understand how can somebody trade after the closing round at 4:15?

Because the ASX closes at 16:30hrs!

cheers laurie

[bvbfan]

was probably a cross trade between one client of a broker to another
Could also have been a special portfolio crossing

codes to look for are XT or XC I think
Had a look on Westpac

04:20 PM $1.962 1690000 $3,315,780.000 Portfolio Special Crossing
04:20 PM $1.940 37701 $73,139.940 Overnight,Crossed

[77TRADER77]

STRONG BUY FOR ME.......EVERYONES 'OUT' Im IN!

[Ann]

77Trader77

Please forgive my contrary view. I am only reading the chart indicators when I say this but I see what appears to be a bit of a slowing or perhaps a bit of a retrace in the OXR price.

I am wondering if the price of Uranium was built into this stock and now that they are floating Toro will the Uranium people be moving out of the OX and into Toro?

Interesting to watch....

[rederob]

Two gaps to fill: $1.57 and $1.79
I think $1.57 is out of play untill commodity prices crash (unlikely medium term).
But $1.79 is compelling tomorrow so I hope to finalise my OXR holding at 50k shares if the price gets there.
People lose sight of the fact that 2 months ago OXR had not breached $1.50, and then jumped over 30% in a month.
Many can quit at $1.80 and still capitalise excellent returns.
I hope they do.
I think Ann's idea about OXR and uranium is "left field". There are many holders of OXR that had no idea that OXR had ever defined a uranium resource. Only those that knew what Minotaur had drilled into before OXR took a slice of their action would have had a clue.
With over a billions shares on issue, it will take a fair slice of folk to leave OXR for Toro to have a material impact.

[Ann]

I am sure you are right Rob, you are the mining expert.

However, I have Uranium threads going in a couple of other forums with OXR on the Uranium lists. As well as that, on the same thread there is a Link which mentions OXR's interest in uranium through Prominent Hill. Back in August last year I put these lists up. On one big forum it is still there without being crushed under tons of other posts and the other forum the thread is being constantly refreshed by members who add to the information and discuss certain shares. They made a casual mention of Uranium in one of the OX's annual reports.

Any mention of Uranium by a reputable company is likely to make an impact on funds wanting to focus on the Uranium sector.

This is the link from my Uranium thread where Oxiana and Uranium is mentioned. Not a very obscure site for those interested in Uranium I shouldn't think.....
http://www.uic.com.au/pmine.htm

I found it and I don't even buy mining companies or have a particular interest in Uranium.

I doubt it was as unknown as you may have thought but I am not an expert on the fundamentals of miners or mining so would have to accept your feelings about it.

[nizar]

remember that OXR owns 25% of TOR...

TOR may outperform in the short term after listing, but id say this would reflect in the sp of OXR, rather than OXR falling at the expense of TOR...

[Ann]

remember that OXR owns 25% of TOR...

TOR may outperform in the short term after listing, but id say this would reflect in the sp of OXR, rather than OXR falling at the expense of TOR...

Certainly wouldn't argue with you about that Nizar. I feel ultimately it will be an excellent move by OXR to have a separate but close company for their Uranium interests.

Two halves being greater than one whole....... as it were.

[laurie]

TOE [ not TOR ] will have 100% in the near future I think the 25% stake held by OXR and 25% held by Minotaur is to allow their shareholders a piece of the cake and a bouble bonus for Oxiania and Minotaur sharesholders to get a Capital Return back from the sale which will be funded by TOE spp/capital raising by non-retail investors...just MHO :2twocents

cheers laurie

[kariba]

OXR is just such a great stock - forms the staple of my portfolio ATM. A good report on it's potential is at:

http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=2&id=3620

Certainly worth a read.

Regards

[laurie]

OXR sp moving up in anticipation of TOE IPO this friday :D :p:

cheers laurie

[redandgreen]

i think there might be another reason for OXR SP surge....how come MEP didn't go up today.
Copper prices has to be the explanation for OXR or the fabled takeover drawing near....

[michael_selway]

i think there might be another reason for OXR SP surge....how come MEP didn't go up today.
Copper prices has to be the explanation for OXR or the fabled takeover drawing near....

what is the "fabled takeover drawing near"

thx

MS

[laurie]

what is the "fabled takeover drawing near"

thx

MS

Xstrata.....

cheers laurie

[bvbfan]

There was also a resource upgrade as well.

But copper testing highs and zinc hitting multi year highs which is now OXR biggest cash generator didn't hurt.

Still hope the t/o (takeover offer) doesn't eventuate until $4 or so

[nizar]

Look at that buy depth!

there's no way this things going below $2.29 today!

BUYERS SELLERS
Orders Quantity Price Price Quantity Orders
15 235,963 2.300 1 2.310 132,149 9
10 149,642 2.290 2 2.320 102,580 9
5 106,292 2.280 3 2.330 83,050 7
8 274,500 2.270 4 2.340 276,300 12

[kevo]

Great Stock! The analysts make me laugh with their 2007 Gold, Silver and Copper forecasts. All OXR surprises will be to the upside. Yesterday's breakout to new highs on massive volume says it all.

Oxiana Revise Net Mineral Resources
Total Oxiana Group Mineral Resources at year end, net of mining depletion, are estimated to contain an estimated 7.1 million ounces of gold, 72 million ounces of silver, 3.7 million tonnes of copper, and 0.9 million tonnes of zinc (0.5g/t Au, 0.5% Cu, 0.5% Zn cut-off). This represents an increase of 900,000 ounces of gold, 28 million ounces of silver, 700,000 tonnes of copper, and 900,000 tonnes of zinc over 2004 estimates. This is a substantial increase in the value of Oxiana’s Resource base.
At Sepon a reduction in oxide gold Resources of 0.9Moz of gold was due to development of more tightly constrained Resource models and to depletion. Significant mineralisation with potential to become new deposits was discovered in 2005, however insufficient drilling had been undertaken by year end for them to be fully represented in this Resource Statement. It is expected that this new material will be converted to Resources in 2006. At Prominent Hill in South Australia, 1.0Moz of gold were added through additional drilling of the eastern gold only zone and the acquisition of Golden Grove in Western Australia contributed 0.6Moz. Overall, silver Resources rose through the acquisition of Golden Grove. An additional 1.0 million tonnes of contained copper was added to the copper Resource inventory made up of approximately 700,000 tonnes from the Thengkham discoveries at Sepon and 300,000 tonnes from Golden Grove. The acquisition of Golden Grove added 903,000 tonnes of zinc and 126,000 tonnes of lead to the Resource inventory in addition to the gold, copper and silver Resources above.
The remodelling noted above, along with the redefinition of oxide-primary gold boundaries and incomplete Resource to Reserve conversion work, resulted in gold Reserves at Sepon being reduced to 0.4 million ounces net of mining depletion. Some of the potential new deposits identified in 2005 require further drilling before being available for conversion to Resources and then Reserves.

These Reserves are currently derived from the oxide and partial oxide Resource base. Copper Ore Reserves at the Khanong deposit were updated following the completion of grade control and limited extension drilling programs and remain essentially unchanged net of depletion from 2004.

Contained metal in Ore Reserves at Golden Grove increased to 453,000 tonnes of zinc, 128,000 tonnes of copper, 238,000 ounces of gold, 13 million ounces of silver and 56,000 tonnes of lead. An initial Ore Reserve for Prominent Hill is anticipated mid-2006. 2006 Resource and Reserve Program.At Sepon the gold focus will be on conversion of identified Resources to Reserves along with the ongoing program to outline Resources at new discoveries and quickly convert them to Reserves. It is expected that the primary gold Resources will be available for conversion to Reserves when feasibility studies have been completed. The copper focus will be on continuing to increase the Resource and Reserve base at Thengkham and Khanong as part of the copper expansion feasibility study.

Further conversion of Golden Grove Resources to Reserves is expected in addition to further testing of Resource potential at depth and along strike.

At Prominent Hill an updated Resource and an initial Reserve will be announced when available as part of the Bankable Feasibility Study. This Reserve optimisation work involves an extensive Group-wide drilling and evaluation program which is well underway at all sites. Further intensive exploration and Resource development drilling also continues across the Company’s highly prospective property portfolio
with up to 25 drill rigs active.

KEVO (http://www.kontentkonsult.com)

[nizar]

Look at that buy depth!

there's no way this things going below $2.29 today!

BUYERS SELLERS
Orders Quantity Price Price Quantity Orders
15 235,963 2.300 1 2.310 132,149 9
10 149,642 2.290 2 2.320 102,580 9
5 106,292 2.280 3 2.330 83,050 7
8 274,500 2.270 4 2.340 276,300 12

OOps...

Oh well... Ive been wrong before :banghead:

Doesn't matter, when toro floats at 40-70c+, OXR will reach new highs

[bvbfan]

Toro will have little or no impact on OXR share price, unless it opens at some crazy price like $2 which isn't going to happen.

[nizar]

Toro will have little or no impact on OXR share price, unless it opens at some crazy price like $2 which isn't going to happen.

why do u say this?

they hold 25% of toro...

that 25% on the offer price is worth $9million. If toro opens at say 70c, then their stake is worth $25million plus...

so their assets have grown, and this should be reflected in the share price...

[bvbfan]

Ok use your $25million value to OXR for TOE that is worth 25/1300
or about 2c which is less than 1% of current OXR share price

I don't believe thats of relevance to OXR when you'd get the same effect from couple of cent rise in Cu and Zn prices

[laurie]

The thing thou is the money left over from the TOE scale back could go to OXR by default with people thinking lets get in through the back door with OXR 24.1% stake then again I may well be wrong :2twocents
of course if Xstrata is sniffing around then that stake would add to OXR value and we all know they are after Uranium since missing out on WMC
cheers laurie

[redandgreen]

The thing thou is the money left over from the TOE scale back could go to OXR by default with people thinking lets get in through the back door with OXR 24.1% stake then again I may well be wrong :2twocents
of course if Xstrata is sniffing around then that stake would add to OXR value and we all know they are after Uranium since missing out on WMC
cheers laurie

tend to agree with you on this mate...

[redandgreen]

continuing to move up....Is it uranium (via TOE)? Is it copper? Is it gold? Is it Xstata? :confused:

[michael_selway]

continuing to move up....Is it uranium (via TOE)? Is it copper? Is it gold? Is it Xstata? :confused:

dude base metal prices exploded yesterday

http://www.kitcometals.com/

thx

MS

[redandgreen]

I'm afraid the "explosion of base metal prices" does not explian OXR continued, comparative outperformance......

[michael_selway]

I'm afraid the "explosion of base metal prices" does not explian OXR continued, comparative outperformance......

Hi what do u mean "comparative outperformance" in this context?

thx

MS

[nizar]

I'm afraid the "explosion of base metal prices" does not explian OXR continued, comparative outperformance......

WHy not? Care to elaborate...

COpper/ZInc/Gold are the commodites in which OXR derives earnings, when these go up, OXR can earn more money since they are unhedged.... and the sp goes up.... :2twocents

[redandgreen]

i happen to believe that there is a hype (speculative element ) in the SP that may well relate to OXR 24% interest in TOE. ( raised previously in this thread).

[laurie]

Have a look at the projected EPS!! it is way undervalued IMHO $3+ :2twocents

cheers laurie

[nizar]

Yes Laurie i agree, 2mrw i think maybe time for a top-up :D

If I wait for a pull-back, maybe ill be waiting a while...

[Knobby22]

The rise has been amazing. Even rose today on a down day.
The speed has been a bit scary. There has to be a consolidation phase soon.

[michael_selway]

Have a look at the projected EPS!! it is way undervalued IMHO $3+ :2twocents

cheers laurie

Laurie, hold on a sec, where did u get your figures? Form Comsec

OXR - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 5.6 21.9 16.4 13.1
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 3.0

You can see 2007 onwards they forecast a fall in prices (copper presumably)

thx

MS

[laurie]

Laurie, hold on a sec, where did u get your figures? Form Comsec



Maths worked out in my head from 2005 results 06-07 profits reported to be approx $480million if not more as full year from Golden Grove will have an impact on the final result then again I may well be totally wrong which does not change my out look of OXR almost made the $3 mark yesterday so I wasn't the only one thinking it was undervalued :2twocents

cheers laurie

[bvbfan]

2007 the will be a large expense for the construction of Prominent Hill that will effect the earnings for 2007 possibly 2008, then the production should add to earnings in 2009
If the copper and gold prices stay at the forecast levels which I think a majority of analysts are using around $1.80 certainly under $2/lb

[laurie]

2007 the will be a large expense for the construction of Prominent Hill that will effect the earnings for 2007 possibly 2008

That depends where the money comes from!! :2twocents

cheers laurie

[redandgreen]

UBS rates the stock as Buy 2, revised price target $3
loooking good........

[bvbfan]

Prominent Hill will be debt funded as far as I know, but with the high prices for Zn and Copper they may not need that much debt.

I think costs were about $550million US but that may increase with cost increases in raw materials


Earnings this year for OXR could be close to $500million AUD and similar for 2007 if commodities prices stay at these levels or rise

[nizar]

I had a look at my mates Broker report from Citigroup...

OXR 2006e and 2007e have been increased by 44.1% and 70.0% respectively due to recent commodity price movements and currency fluctuations :D

(Sorry cant post link it was hard copy)

[HELLAS09]

OXR is a very sore spot for me.

I bought the stock not even 2 years ago at 99 cents and sold out at 85 cents...YES at a loss...my biggest mistake I rushed out as I needed the $$ for my wedding, but I still had like 4 months to hold off but thought 'hey minimise my losses'...I went against ALL advice to 'HOLD' as they'll take off soon GRRR.

Now look at them :( Sorry had to add my biatch in here.

[laurie]

HELLAS09
Don't be harsh on yourself you must have got on at near the same time as I did .92c you have to learn to be PATIENCE I found out the hard way also

cheers laurie

[michael_selway]

I had a look at my mates Broker report from Citigroup...

OXR 2006e and 2007e have been increased by 44.1% and 70.0% respectively due to recent commodity price movements and currency fluctuations :D

(Sorry cant post link it was hard copy)

Hehe, can you please just post their forecast 2006, 2007, 2008 EPS

thx

MS

[kevo]

It's been upgraded again by Macquarie.
http://kontentkonsult.com/blog/2006/04/macquarie_are_we_being_too_con_1.html
www.kontentkonsult.com

It will be $5.00 bucks before you know it..

[Knobby22]

I am just stunned as to the continuing copper price rise.

I always thought Oxiana was a good company but it is truly exceeding my expectations.

The cashflow is such that they can continue developing their other fields.

[rederob]

I am just stunned as to the continuing copper price rise.

Me too, and I have been following/studying this very closely for a few years now.
There is a chance that zinc will catch up to copper by 2008 due to its price inelasticity.
I might have to go overweight in my already overweight commodity exposure to add more KZL.
I learned that their hedge exposure to copper and lead will have largely unwound by mid year, giving them spot prices for most of the next financial year.
KZL do not hedge zinc and presently have a margin in excess of a dollar per pound: that's 23,000 tonnes for this half year multiplied by 2,200 pounds multiplied by a dollar or so - compelling maths!
By way of comparison, in the 6months to December KZL produced about half the quantity of zinc anticipated this half, and received only 64cents per pound. Present zinc spot price is $1.38/lb and rising!

[michael_selway]

It's been upgraded again by Macquarie.
http://kontentkonsult.com/blog/2006/04/macquarie_are_we_being_too_con_1.html
www.kontentkonsult.com

It will be $5.00 bucks before you know it..

Thanks mate, very interesting


The most significant change (given its importance to both the base metals complex and equities) is the ~50% increase to MRE's copper price forecasts for 2007 and 2008, which now exceeds US$2.00/lb until end 2008. Those issues have had a substantial impact on MRE's production forecasts, have raised the forecast concentrates deficit, and have now swung their refined market balance forecast from surplus to deficit in 2006. With stocks already extremely low, this deficit is enough to make MRE question whether there is any justification to forecast a significant pull-back in prices this year, and MRE's conclusion is that there is not. As a result, MRE have revised up their forecast average copper price for 2006 from $2.20/lb ($4850/t) to $2.54/lb ($5590/t).

MRE continue to expect virtually all of the LME zinc stocks to be run down by the end of the year, and the zinc market to be displaying all the signs of a shortage market – including prices moving to record highs. Copper is an interesting case study for those looking at possible price outcomes for zinc – in copper, prices have gone higher than we would ever have imagined – simply because there has just not been enough to go around. In zinc it is difficult to say just how high prices could go in a real shortage situation. MRE do not believe there will be significant price-related substitution out of zinc in the galvanised steel market.

[laurie]

Oxiana is IMHO in "No Mans Land" it's surley must be eyed by Xstrata and the quicker it can get to $5+ the better it is able to fend off being a target! right now it has to be a steal at the present price to it's future EPS if it reaches $5 then Xstrata would have to fork out close to $6.5-----> $7

cheers laurie

[nizar]

Me too, and I have been following/studying this very closely for a few years now.
There is a chance that zinc will catch up to copper by 2008 due to its price inelasticity.
I might have to go overweight in my already overweight commodity exposure to add more KZL.
I learned that their hedge exposure to copper and lead will have largely unwound by mid year, giving them spot prices for most of the next financial year.
KZL do not hedge zinc and presently have a margin in excess of a dollar per pound: that's 23,000 tonnes for this half year multiplied by 2,200 pounds multiplied by a dollar or so - compelling maths!
By way of comparison, in the 6months to December KZL produced about half the quantity of zinc anticipated this half, and received only 64cents per pound. Present zinc spot price is $1.38/lb and rising!

Yes rederob, it is compelling..

I dont know how people could afford not to hold KZL and OXR..

In the latest half-yearly, KZL reported that costs per pound for zinc were 32c and average sale price received was 64c generating margins of 32c/lb... Currently zinc spot price 1.38, so their margins would have EXPLODED.. more than tripled... costs are set to remain at 30-35c/lb...

And dont forget copper, not that much at 4000tonnes for this year, but thats net revenue of 13million, considering costs of $1/lb, and spot price of $2.50...

Unhedged producers are the way to go, and KZL and OXR are my picks... have been holding KZL since beginning of the year, have topped up last week and will top up again...

People say copper will be in oversupply in 2007-2008... but for KZL in 2007, copper production will be 25000tonnes and then 35000tonnes in 2008, so the fall in spot prices will be MORE THAN OFFSET by increased production..

KZL will get re-rated, the last eps estimate was done after their last quarterly, when zinc spot prices were 95c/lb and consensus eps is 42.2cps... this will be increased to 50cps+ IMO...

Ok sorry guys wrong thread, so onto OXR...

This is the next big mining house on asx IMO... when they get Prominent Hill going in 2008, Prominent Hill to add 90-100,000 tonnes of Cu, 110-130,000 tonnes of Zn and 420,000 oz of gold, and then Sepon upgrades in 2009 to double copper output plus all their exploration upside and potential to increase their resource, in the next 2-3 years i can see this being a $10billion company... unhedged... just sit back and enjoy the ride... :D

[rederob]

Oxiana is IMHO in "No Mans Land" it's surley must be eyed by Xstrata and the quicker it can get to $5+ the better it is able to fend off being a target! right now it has to be a steal at the present price to it's future EPS if it reaches $5 then Xstrata would have to fork out close to $6.5-----> $7
Laurie
Bring up a chart of Tethyan (TYC) to see what a takeover would do.
Entirely possbile that OXR would immediately move over $5 on any formal offer.
However, OXR's numbers are so good they would show shareholders that a stock price of $6 by 2008 is possible.
Tethyan is still a bare resource project whereas Oxiana is already a cash cow.
If the similarites matched then OXR would sell out to Xstrata for around 2.5x present price.

[MalteseBull]

This stock is going nuts now, been watching it in the last 10-20 mins, extremly heavy buying

[nizar]

$3.38 on the close up 10% on 34million volume :D

[michael_selway]

$3.38 on the close up 10% on 34million volume :D

Hi i cant believe it!

cant believe how much ZInc it produced in the last quarter

Do knwo what teh zinc production for the next quarter/yrs is for ZFX?

Also copper/gold/silver cause I dont knwo why they are forecasting a big decrease in EPS in the future?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 5.6 21.8 15.3 13.4
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 3.0


thx

MS

[rederob]

Also copper/gold/silver cause I dont knwo why they are forecasting a big decrease in EPS in the future?

MS
The forecasts are based on present production rates and a decline in metal prices going forward.
The forecasters will be badly wrong, as they have been for several years.
Metal prices will be higher still at year end, and zinc is likely to run higher throughout 2007, with gold and silver rising dramatically as well.
There is every chance OXR will significantly raise its next dividend - I expect 5 cents minimum.
OXR upside yet to be realised.............. watch this space.

[nizar]

MS
The forecasts are based on present production rates and a decline in metal prices going forward.
The forecasters will be badly wrong, as they have been for several years.
Metal prices will be higher still at year end, and zinc is likely to run higher throughout 2007, with gold and silver rising dramatically as well.
There is every chance OXR will significantly raise its next dividend - I expect 5 cents minimum.
OXR upside yet to be realised.............. watch this space.

Agree

FOr 2007 and 2008 and beyond, analysts/brokers use 55c/lb zinc and 70c/lb copper in calculation

Higher metal prices will allow them to increase their resource so fatter margins and increased production

[YOUNG_TRADER]

In 6 months this beasts mkt cap has gone from $1.5billion to $4.5billion !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:


Its not the same when say TZN goes from 60c to $1.20 as its mkt cap went from $45m to $90m,

No we're talking about an addition of $3billion dollars in 6 months :eek:

Good luck to all those brave enough to ride

[nizar]

In 6 months this beasts mkt cap has gone from $1.5billion to $4.5billion !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:


Its not the same when say TZN goes from 60c to $1.20 as its mkt cap went from $45m to $90m,

No we're talking about an addition of $3billion dollars in 6 months :eek:

Good luck to all those brave enough to ride

bro OXIANA is earnings heaps of money

look at the latest report..

its NPAT for FY2006 is forecast at $446million, thats eps of 30cps, its not overvalued at all at 10x earnings if thats what u are implying...

Just because a share price has gone up so much doesnt mean it cant go higher...

[rederob]

its NPAT for FY2006 is forecast at $446million, thats eps of 30cps, its not overvalued at all at 10x earnings if thats what u are implying...
nizar
I have not had time to run over the numbers in detail, so I just looked at Comsec - one broker recommends the Ox as a "sell" (wish I could find out who). My view is that the analysts forecasts at Comsec for the next year are not even on the page. I am forecasting OXR's eps for the next financial year at over 80cps conservatively.
Moreover, I think the numbers for OXR's present quarter will again stun the market to "accumulate".
We seem to agree that present price action does not even factor in Prominent Hill. But that name will creep into more and more broker reports next year, and we really will be looking at a minimum price for the Ox of $7 by end 2007.
While the Ox is only a bit over 10% of BHP's present price, by 2010 I foreacast it to be no less than 40% and possibly higher depending on gold's upside.

[kariba]

In 6 months this beasts mkt cap has gone from $1.5billion to $4.5billion !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! :eek: :eek: :eek:
Its not the same when say TZN goes from 60c to $1.20 as its mkt cap went from $45m to $90m,

No we're talking about an addition of $3billion dollars in 6 months :eek:
Good luck to all those brave enough to ride

Young Trader

The same was being said about the PDN @ $1.50, & $2.00, $3.00, $5.00 ...AND they havent even made 1 cent yet! At one point recently both OXR & PDN had the SAME MC ....I am a fan & owner of PDN shares ...But what a joke! OXR is a cash cow & has been MASSIVELY underpriced - It is only now coming to near where it should have been .... not even including PH & other factors etc.

No mate we are nowhere near yet!!!

cheers

[bvbfan]

OXR

Gold 600 - 450 = 150 x 180,000
= 27,000,000

Copper 2.75 - 0.85 = 1.90 x 60000 x 2205
= 251,370,000

Zinc 1.25 - 0.30 = 0.95 x 150000 x 2205
= 314,212,500


= 592,582,500

costs of production and depreciation included in the costs of individual metals

other costs
admin 10,000,000
misc 5,000,000
finance costs 40,000,000
exploration 25,000,000
income tax 100,000,000

total costs 180,000,000


estimated profit = 412,582,500

[YOUNG_TRADER]

OXR certainly is a cash cow,

Wasn't saying that it was over valued or undervalued, was just commenting on how quickly its huge market cap trebled!

Come on a $1.5Billlion dollar stock to treble is impressive isn't it?

[laurie]

Has everyone forgotten OXR 24.7% of TOE! :rolleyes:

cheers laurie

[rederob]

bvbfan
Simple maths - nice bottom line.
And the prices you used for the metals have already been surpassed, so your bottom line is conservative.
As I have said a few times, these numbers exclude any exploration success, and known upside that will come from opening up Prominent Hill.
Unfortunately my exposure to OXR (at 20%) is a bit over my trading rules, or I would be adding on today's dip.

[clowboy]

Im wondering if there will be any dip left on monday with the way zinc and other comodites (ex gold/silver) have bounced back in the last few hours

[michael_selway]

Im wondering if there will be any dip left on monday with the way zinc and other comodites (ex gold/silver) have bounced back in the last few hours

Actually todays Dip was mainly due to Silver which dropped 20%, from 14 to 12 in 1 day

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag0030lnb.gif

thx

MS

[nizar]

Actually todays Dip was mainly due to Silver which dropped 20%, from 14 to 12 in 1 day

http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag0030lnb.gif

thx

MS

U reckon?

silver contributes very little to OXR's bottom line, i think it was due to the fall in gold/copper/zinc and it was due to some profit taking.. i mean, last week it closed at 2.75, thats alot of movement for a top100 company... :2twocents

[clowboy]

All things being equal,

Silver and gold made reasonably recoveries over night.

Zinc and Copper went to new records, so as per my statement I think I may have missed the boat trying to by on any "DIP"

[rederob]

I think I may have missed the boat trying to by on any "DIP"
Me too!
I was hoping for a "blow off", but zinc, copper and nickel did a "Monica" overnight and intensified.
In relation to OXR, I do not believe that the market has yet priced in the company's excellent numbers that were reported on Thursday.
Add last night's price action on metals and we are looking at $3.50 in no time and $4 early into the next half.
Elsewhere a poster mentioned PDN as a stock that had doubled, and doubled again, yet had not earned a single cent: It remains a triumph of euphoria over reality - a testimony to our yearning for future profits despite having "realised" money in front of us if only we cared to look.

[bvbfan]

estimated profit = 412,582,500

Just checking the calculations and the numbers were based on USD and not converted to AUD

So with current rates around 75 that would be about $550 million AUD

Only the 2nd time I've shorted OXR in 5 years and looks like I'll be hurting monday, good thing it was only a partial hedge on my large long position

[nizar]

did anybody notice how much sepon gold costs have increased.... in the UK roadshow presentation, half yearly results till dec31 showed sepon gold costs to be US$201

in the latest 1Q2006 production figures, costs at sepon were US$350/oz...

did any1 here go to agm and pose this question to OH or any thoughts on this?

Thats 80% increase in costs and it really hurt (the extent) of their profitability for last quarter...

[michael_selway]

Right place, right time for miner
Date : 12/02/2006
Reporter: Luisa Saccotelli

LUISA SACCOTELLI: When it comes to gold digging, there are few Australian mining outfits which have grown as fast as Oxiana. The company alchemy is a mix of right place, right time but also boss Owen Hegarty's preparedness to go where others haven't - in his case, a remote Communist controlled valley without roads or access to reliable communication to the outside world.

OWEN HEGARTY: I have been in this fortunate position of being in charge of a company that has grown very substantially from a few million dollars up to a small number of billions, I suppose. People talk about going from about 10 cents to $2 so that is a 20 bagger in the last three or four years.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Owen Hegarty was a 20-year career mining man with Rio Tinto up until the late 1990s when the company passed up on gold and copper deposits in Laos. Judged too small, that wasn't the only problem.

OWEN HEGARTY: You had Asia falling over, you had copper gold prices falling over and the world was going into recession. Investment dollars were very hard to come by. Here we were it was a somewhat isolated area, very little infrastructure, a monsoonal climate. There was no mining industry. The first question about Laos was, where is it? And then, of course, who is in charge up there?

LUISA SACCOTELLI: The answer to the reluctant money men was the Communists in a government of former freedom fighters.

OWEN HEGARTY: The leaders of the present government, some of those people were the cave-dwelling freedom fighters nationalists who saw off the Americans and others during the second Indo-China conflict. So that has been their heritage.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: None of the country risk issues deterred Hegarty.

OWEN HEGARTY: The Sepon project is amazing in that whole mineral field is something I have never seen before in my life. A combination of copper and gold at the surface, very high grade, oodles of upside and one of the things I suppose that we did was ensure that we had a consistent story, consistent people and meet up with all the district chiefs and so on, understand their position, respect the fact that it's their property, it's their valley, it's their livelihoods that you are changing forever.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Hegarty credits that approach with earning Oxiana its social licence to work in the valley. But first came the hunt for $20 million to buy a 80 per cent stake in the mine.

OWEN HEGARTY: Wearing out shoe leather, running around looking to put money together up and down Collins Street here and across in London and in New York and various other places. You pack your bag, you put your presentation away and move on to the next one. That is I say to people as we left the building, there was not a lot of difference between being shown out and left out.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Two years later with gold and copper coming out of the ground, Oxiana bought out the rest of the deposits for $US80 million.

OWEN HEGARTY: Plenty of people told us we would never be able to raise the money to build the Sepon under any circumstances and, not only that, to finance these operations, these mines, you are going to have to hedge your copper or hedge your gold. We are anti-hedgers. We believe we have had that gene removed from our DNA. We think we have seen too many companies go broke, go belly up by hedging. We think it's far too complicated for us anyway. We like to keep it nice and simple.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: Gold is now at its highest price in 25 years. Oxiana has been lucky. As commodities have boomed so have its market appeal. Full-year earnings are tipped to hit 75 million, up from a loss of 2 million the year before. Oxiana is trading on a price to earnings ratio of eight. There is also a second mine, Western Australia's Golden Grove, with a third still in feasibility, South Australia's Prominent Hill. The idea is to fill the mid-cap market gap. It is all going Oxiana's way now but it could all unravel.

OWEN HEGARTY: As soon as commodity prices pop up you find there are plenty of analysts out there looking for them to pop down very soon. So there is a few of them out there crying wolf. But our strategy is to be in low cost, high yield, high margin operations.

LUISA SACCOTELLI: But perhaps a bigger threat is another symptom of the current gold fever - a rash of hostile takeovers has broken out and the big and inquisitive miner Xstrata is said to be scratching around. With a healthy personal stake in Oxiana worth upwards of $50 million, Hegarty would walk away wealthy either way but he has invested a lot of emotional capital as well.

OWEN HEGARTY: Of course we have our defences there, but the best defensive against takeover is optimising your share price.

ALAN KOHLER: Luisa Saccotelli reporting.

http://www.abc.net.au/insidebusiness/content/2006/s1567944.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/reslib/200602/r72167_201099.asx

[MalteseBull]

as if the OX isn't the best buy of the year... huge potential

[nizar]

as if the OX isn't the best buy of the year... huge potential

Agree.... :D

Oxiana is the must have share for 2006

[GreatPig]

I won't disagree.

Up 8.3% since buying in a couple of days ago, and I bought my maximum-size parcel (ie. what I've set as a maximum as part of my system).

Looking good at this moment :)

GP

[Fung]

Raise up to $3.5 now... Is it a good price to BUY still?

[redandgreen]

What's too expensive for a stellar stock like this, however I would wait for a pull-back!
PS my opinion only of course...

[porkpie324]

who can guess where oxr is going, we're in uncharted terrotory now, all i know is that i'm still holding, was some resistance just under 3.00 but broke thru on well above average volume,but right now more than happy to hold.porkpie :) :(

[laurie]

TOE may drag it down a bit!

cheers laurie

[rederob]

TOE may drag it down a bit!

cheers laurie
Over a billion shares on issue.
TOE can cut either way - medium term down, and longer term up.

I think copper, zinc, silver and gold (not in that order) prices will move the stock as most holders have factored in TOE and will just let it ride.

Copper prices are likely to suffer a major correction in the week as its price is over-inflated via thin trade in a highly speculatively driven market.
As they say, keep some powder dry for the dips. Only the very brave or very foolish would rush OXR at the moment.

disclosure - I hold a fair few OXR but nil TOE

[Caliente]

ah i meant to post this earlier today. Oxiana was a great buy this morning -> DRP discount news. Seems to be about the only thing holding the "Ox" back.

Disclosure> I hold.

[rederob]

ah i meant to post this earlier today. Oxiana was a great buy this morning -> DRP discount news. Seems to be about the only thing holding the "Ox" back.

Caliente
Am looking at Kitcometals right now and it seems that copper is up around 4% so far, with other base metals shaking off yesterday's loss.
Maybe those that wanted the Ox also wanted a real bargain: Don't look like it's on the horizon.

[nizar]

copper up by 15% now and zinc by 3% and gold marginally...

this rebound will be sweet

good thing i topped by OXR and KZL today... im a bit worried about what interest rate rise on tuesday (if it happens) would do to the market though in the short term....

[michael_selway]

copper up by 15% now and zinc by 3% and gold marginally...

this rebound will be sweet

good thing i topped by OXR and KZL today... im a bit worried about what interest rate rise on tuesday (if it happens) would do to the market though in the short term....

yeah, btw has kitco mean fixed yet?

http://www.kitcometals.com/

thx

MS

[nizar]

yeah, btw has kitco mean fixed yet?

http://www.kitcometals.com/

thx

MS

yeh im on there now, copper up 16% and zinc 3.6%...

it seems to be working fine

actually i just saw this msg:

IMPORTANT:
Due to technical difficulties pricing being received is incorrect. We are currently working on the issue and anticipate resolution shortly. We apologize for the inconvenience and appreciate your patience.

so maybe not..

[Caliente]

cant wait for the Ox to rush out the gate tommorow hehehehe!!!

[clowboy]

anyone know if the "technical dificulties" have been ironed out from kitco yet?

[nizar]

cant wait for the Ox to rush out the gate tommorow hehehehe!!!

Same

My guess is that it will open close to 3.60 :D

[MalteseBull]

needs to crack 3.60 barrier

[MalteseBull]

Don't know why there is a high volume selling... the best is yet to come

[laurie]

Maybe profit taking as we get closer to the end of finanical year :2twocents

cheers laurie

[Fab]

Laurie,

Why do you think the best is yet to come ?

Cheers

[mlennox]

Laurie,

Why do you think the best is yet to come ?

Cheers

gold gold gold gold gold gold gold... and gold :P ;)

[nizar]

Laurie,

Why do you think the best is yet to come ?

Cheers

zinc will be in supply deficit this year sending the zinc spot price through the roof i think $2+ by october

gold, zinc and copper tipped to remain strong throughout 2006

Prominent Hill is a mini-olympic dam and will more than double current production figures of gold and copper and is coming online in 2008

Sepon Copper output is due to double by 2009

OXR market cap by 2008-9: $10billion+ IMO

[MalteseBull]

GOLD UP $15 to US$668!

this should add some fuel to oxiana's price today

patience to virtue

[mlennox]

up 2% already :P when did u enter maltese ? (i entered on 27/03/06 @ 2.44)

[coyotte]

gold gold gold gold gold gold gold... and gold :P ;)

could be a lot more pushing the OX than POG

could be something to do with Managment !

as both the Saint and the Sons showed us last year ---- the assests can be worthless if managment are just a mob of " dwarfs "


Cheers
Coyotte

[mlennox]

managment are just a mob of " dwarfs "

find me a company without a management like this... its the people at the bottom of these mines making these companys money not there management.

[coyotte]

mlennox

debatable !!
do not both rely on each other ?


but i would not have thought SBM would be as high as it now without a change
of top management last year (even though it had aquired the Sons assets @ bagain prices )


Cheers
Coyotte

[laurie]

Laurie,

Why do you think the best is yet to come ?

Cheers

Full year production figures of Golden Grove will be massive in Oct! just look at what's happening to SILVER prices this company cannot put a foot wrong

cheers laurie

[MalteseBull]

up 2% already :P when did u enter maltese ? (i entered on 27/03/06 @ 2.44)

entered about 3.30, plan on holding this baby long term though, should see it at $5 one day,

[mlennox]

entered about 3.30, plan on holding this baby long term though, should see it at $5 one day,

i think i saw an option taken out by the board for 4.85 expiring 2011...

anyone know how this should be viewed?

[mlennox]

mlennox

debatable !!
do not both rely on each other ?


oh definately but then why do the managers get paid more ? because they work harder ( i think not ) ;)

[MalteseBull]

Gold will hit $700 very soon! by next week i rekon!

so OXR and other goldies are worth while, so stock up!

[nizar]

If u want a stock that moves better with increasing gold price, try LHG

[nizar]

OXR

Gold 600 - 450 = 150 x 180,000
= 27,000,000

Copper 2.75 - 0.85 = 1.90 x 60000 x 2205
= 251,370,000

Zinc 1.25 - 0.30 = 0.95 x 150000 x 2205
= 314,212,500


= 592,582,500

costs of production and depreciation included in the costs of individual metals

other costs
admin 10,000,000
misc 5,000,000
finance costs 40,000,000
exploration 25,000,000
income tax 100,000,000

total costs 180,000,000


estimated profit = 412,582,500

what do u mean by finance costs?

u mean like paying back any interest on loans?

and also, how much do we have to put aside for wages when making these kind of calculations: surely this must be at least 30-40mil, OXR must employ hundreds of people....

[bvbfan]

finance costs, yes interest and for payback of some principle

as for employee expenses, the majority of workers are in the mines and that would be included in the costs of the production
Office costs would be for the corporate office employees

Again these numbers aren't meant to be concrete, but assuming I've got most of the costs addressed then you can gauge the earnings from the levels used for the metals.
If costs are underestimated (from my estimates) obviously they won't earn as much

BTW, all those figures are in USD so I think I have overestimated some of the costs

[MalteseBull]

should see it close to $4 today

[ctp6360]

Wow that's optimistic but gee I hope you're right.

I opened 5 positions yesterday and they're all up 1-5% today, man it feels good to be right! Ha ha ha, I've jinxed myself

[MalteseBull]

well the rate gold is going we'll see the ox reach $4
a matter of time

[rederob]

well the rate gold is going we'll see the ox reach $4
a matter of time
MalteseBull
You will be right very soon - before end-May in any event.
Every commodity mined by the Ox is going thru the roof.
Mine closures in Chile will exacerbate both copper and zinc supplies, so look for another few percent price gains tonight.
Commodity gloom merchants are simply relying on "new" money to take profits.
Instead, smarter money is buying into the dips and ratcheting prices ever higher.
If the media morose cared to read the fundamentals (can they read!), they would have put their homes on the line, instead.
It's a shame the Ox is not producing nickel - it's jumped massively as well to sit near $21,000 tonight.

[nizar]

Copper price hits record high above 8,000 usd/tonne as Grupo Mexico closes mine

LONDON (AFX) - The price of copper smashed through 8,000 usd per tonne for the first time following the closure of a mine in key producer Mexico.

In morning trade on the London Metal Exchange, three-month copper prices reached 8,010 usd per tonne -- the highest point since the metal was first listed in 1877.

The price of copper, used for electrical wiring and plumbing, has been boosted in recent months by supply problems, limited output and soaring demand from the booming economies of China and India.

Mining company Grupo Mexico said this morning it is closing its zinc and copper mine in San Martin, the country's largest, after the government refused to intervene to end a strike that has affected the site since March.

Zinc, which is chiefly used to galvanise iron and steel, also hit a new record of 3,525 usd per tonne.

Strike action has also hit another of the company's copper mines in Le Caridad, while mining production is declining in Chile, the world's largest producer of the commodity.

The group Antofagasta forecast this week that its Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile will produce 319,000 tonnes of copper this year, 4.4 pct less than in 2005.

http://www.afxpress.com/about488/index.php?lg=en&c=00.00&story=1470680

[Lucstar]

Anyone know what led to the dip in OXR today?

[ctp6360]

Lucstar, *everything* dipped today, virtually, I don't think the drop is indicative of OXR its indicative of the market as a whole, I have a feeling it will bounce back tomorrow, if not on Wednesday.

Don't panic! :)

[rederob]

Anyone know what led to the dip in OXR today?
"Dip".... how about the wheels fall off.
Need the gap filled under $3.20 to get me excited enough to buy any more.
Can't see that happening any time soon as gold prices rallied slightly today.

[Lucstar]

I hope ur right ctp,
cause i ceased the good opportunity today and bought in @ $3.56
Hopefully it will be a good trade hey.
Fingers crossed

[rederob]

I hope ur right ctp,
cause i ceased the good opportunity today and bought in @ $3.56
Hopefully it will be a good trade hey.
Fingers crossed
Nup
The wheels are falling off at the moment - gold down 3% in half an hour or less and commodity prices are collapsing faster than a Zimbabwe cricket team..
Good news for you, Lucstar, is that prices have bounced ever so slightly in past few minutes, but US market has yet to enter the fray.
C'mon the bears!

[ctp6360]

rederrob, what site do you use to track gold prices?

[professor_frink]

this one has gold and lots of other stuff on it

http://www.barronscommodity.com/private/index.asp

[LPA]

So the price is now down around $3.20, which is basically what I paid for it to begin with...What's happening here, gold and copper haven't dropped THAT much - I just don't really get it.

I feel that 3.20 is a pretty stable point for this company at the moment. Anybody think we will see it back at 3.75 anytime this month? If so I may just have to buy some more ;)

LPA

[LPA]

$3.16 - time to buy some more? Any opinions?

[rederob]

So the price is now down around $3.20, which is basically what I paid for it to begin with...What's happening here, gold and copper haven't dropped THAT much - I just don't really get it.

I feel that 3.20 is a pretty stable point for this company at the moment. Anybody think we will see it back at 3.75 anytime this month? If so I may just have to buy some more ;)

LPA
LPA
Bid at $3.15 or lower.
If the price comes in, it is likely to finish higher at market close.
OXR might not climb back to $3.75 in a few weeks, but it could be $4 in 6 weeks.
There are few commentators that call this other than a "correction", so if you have a decent time frame to trade/invest, you should do handsomely.
I guarantee it with all my luck!

[LPA]

Thanks for the vote of confidence ;) I originally bought in at $3.13 so I decided to top up at $3.14. I can't see it dropping below $3 before this thing is over and it starts slowly gaining ground again :)

*edit* just made my buy at $3.14. Is anybody else buying, or am I acting to quickly?

[LPA]

well we're looking at $3.10 now....might have jumped the gun a little bit, but as long as it goes up from here I'm happy :)

That's one hell of a drop though just because of a slight correction...hope it doesn't last!

[ctp6360]

I'm no expert by any means, but Gold seems to be doing better overseas at the moment and I think this drop in OXR has been affected by the recent gold drops, so hopefully this will do something to help OXR recover, I am suprised by the severity of the drop too, especially given how well OXR was going without too much volatility.

[kennas]

It's had an incredible run ctp. Time for a rest.

It's hard to put a price an any of the gold miners at the moment and know what good value is. Sure you can pluck an eps via their hedging positions and 'average' spot price for the year, but what the hell is that going to be?

And analysts are plucking anything from $450 to $2000 gold next year.

Best guesses really. It could be worth anything between $1 and $5 right now!

Long term, it's a winner.

[LPA]

I agree completely that long term this is a winner - and now might be a good time to buy some more, which I did :D

But Oxiana doesn't hedge their gold at all, it's part of their business strategy. Is this a good or a bad thing in this type of market? Maybe that's why it is seeing such a huge drop?

My crystal ball is telling me (which is basically the best bet at the moment ;) ) that people are overreacting/profit taking big time and that by this time two months from now we will be laughing.....that's my completely uneducated opinion!

[tech/a]

To early to pick bargains in this sector at the moment.
Things will flatten before resuming.
Unlikely to V bottom.
Easy your way into positions on up ticks.
Wait for lows to be tested and new immediate term lows to start rising.

Anyway Thats my veiw.

[LPA]

*sigh* $3.08

Can someone help a newbie out here ;) Is this going to stabalise and return to normal slowly after all the craziness? Or is it just going to sit around $3 for the next few months until they announce that they are going to mine at Prominent Hill? (which should be happening in August according to their website).

I'm still scratching my head over this stock...

Tech-a thanks for the advice, I was watching it and figured that $3.15 was pretty stable and hope it still is by the end of the trading day. I guess the real test comes over the rest of the week. The dumping of stocks in general seems to have ended today for everything but mining stocks....whether or not they will slow down today/tomorrow remains to be seen.

Oh well, I'm learning alot I'll tell you that now! :D

[kennas]

Will probably follow the gold price LPA.

So, my bet is correction/consolidation for a week or month, and then it's on it's way back up over the next few months to 2 years. This would be the consevative view in this forum. Some will say it could rocket again tomorrow..... :confused:

[kennas]

Or......

1542 [Dow Jones] Oxiana (OXR.AU) down 13% at A$3.07, Zinifex (ZFX.AU) down 10% at A$11.13. Dealer tips further 10% fall in both stocks near term. "The problem is everyone's bottom fishing in Oxiana (OXR.AU) and Zinifex (ZFX.AU), but even if metal prices are up tomorrow, who's going to be the marginal buyer?" Tips Oxiana fall to A$2.80, Zinifex (ZFX.AU) to A$10.00 tomorrow. (DWR)

[tech/a]

Dont guess the market.

Trade with it and give it time to develope.
Patience can be very profitable.

[Fab]

I believe this correction we are seeing is very healthy for the resources stocks it went a bit too high too fast for my liking. If you are there for the mid to long term there is no worry to have the upward trend will resume. May is often a volatile month anyway I believe June will be too.
Not a bad time to pick up some bargain so, I believe it will go further down.

[clowboy]

Looks like the carnage is just beggining.

Sigh,

Day's like today I would rather forget but alas this is wehn we learn the most.

[LPA]

Honestly, I don't see why the carnage should continue...But I agree completely with the learning statement :) I've learnt alot in the past few days - the number one thing being DON'T LISTEN TO ANYBODY.......everyone will be wrong, until they are right and then jump up and down telling you 'told you so!'.

I bought at $3.13 based on my own research and the spike in price (caught it midway).

I should of sold at $3.75 when everyone was saying it would pop $4.00 in a week or two.

I listened when people said it was just a small correction and held on when I saw it reach $3.55.

Today it started at about $3.20, and I bought at $3.14 because nobody seemed to think it would drop much further than that (plus it was what I paid for it originally basically so I was happy to add to my stocks).

Now people are saying $2.80? over a 30% drop in three days? based on nothing but speculation that the metal rush is over......ouch. So if I listen to these people I should sell now and buy again tomorrow (well, too late to do it NOW). I just know that if I did that they would open at like $3.35 and I would lose out again.

Basically the stock that I chose a month ago and thought was doing great has just become one of the biggest losers (probably THE biggest) of this 'consolidation' period. Trying to keep my head together is hard I must say, particularly as a new low-level player. But I'm going to hold onto my stocks now.....OXR all the way! I'm just waiting for an August announcement from them, that should get the fires burning again...

oh, and one final..............*SIGH* :sly: stupid stock market :banghead: :p:

[clowboy]

LPA, I can barley get my head around the carnage starting yet alone see why it would continue - that is what makes me think it may. Comodity prices haven't even droped that much (compared to where they where a month or two ago) and yet here we all are bleeding. As for the biggest loser - I doubt it. KLZ lost far more than OXR today (% terms) and im sure there are many more out there.

Nothing like losing a months worth of gains in two days :)

[crayfish]

In mid April OXR went though $3, WHEN

Cu was $3/lb AND
Au was $610-620/oz

Both commodities are still way above these levels despite the drop in commodity prices this week, yet OXR has gone down towards that $3 mark of a month ago (well closed at $3.08). Does this equal panic selling?

While Cu and Zn prices stay near record highs OXR will make a filthy amount of money. In fact Cu would have to go beneath $2 for OXR not to make a filthy amount of money.

Currently:
Cu is $3.49/lb
Au is $675/oz
Zn is $1.40/lb

Wait for a full year of production from Golden Grove, the Prominent Hill announcement, and did anyone mention the A word? Or was it the T word? I'll stick with em.

[nizar]

In mid April OXR went though $3, WHEN

Cu was $3/lb AND
Au was $610-620/oz

Both commodities are still way above these levels despite the drop in commodity prices this week, yet OXR has gone down towards that $3 mark of a month ago (well closed at $3.08). Does this equal panic selling?

While Cu and Zn prices stay near record highs OXR will make a filthy amount of money. In fact Cu would have to go beneath $2 for OXR not to make a filthy amount of money.

Currently:
Cu is $3.49/lb
Au is $675/oz
Zn is $1.40/lb

Wait for a full year of production from Golden Grove, the Prominent Hill announcement, and did anyone mention the A word? Or was it the T word? I'll stick with em.

Agree

I will also stick with them until at least when Prominent Hill starts production H2 2008

Copper costs are 85c/lb and Zinc costs are 35c/lb or lower, 20c/lb if u take into account lead credits

LOOK AT THEIR MARGINS

Great advice there by tech, thats my view 100%, top up after the stock has bottomed and is on the way up

Nothing has changed fundamentally with OXR, the demand for their products is still there, and LME supplies of zinc and copper are still RUNNING OUT

This is one to hold for the long-term and accumulate on dips... :2twocents

[GreatPig]

Nothing like losing a months worth of gains in two days
Yeah, almost as bad as having to hand it over to the tax man...

GP

[nizar]

Honestly, I don't see why the carnage should continue...But I agree completely with the learning statement :) I've learnt alot in the past few days - the number one thing being DON'T LISTEN TO ANYBODY.......everyone will be wrong, until they are right and then jump up and down telling you 'told you so!'.

I bought at $3.13 based on my own research and the spike in price (caught it midway).

I should of sold at $3.75 when everyone was saying it would pop $4.00 in a week or two.

I listened when people said it was just a small correction and held on when I saw it reach $3.55.

Today it started at about $3.20, and I bought at $3.14 because nobody seemed to think it would drop much further than that (plus it was what I paid for it originally basically so I was happy to add to my stocks).

Now people are saying $2.80? over a 30% drop in three days? based on nothing but speculation that the metal rush is over......ouch. So if I listen to these people I should sell now and buy again tomorrow (well, too late to do it NOW). I just know that if I did that they would open at like $3.35 and I would lose out again.

Basically the stock that I chose a month ago and thought was doing great has just become one of the biggest losers (probably THE biggest) of this 'consolidation' period. Trying to keep my head together is hard I must say, particularly as a new low-level player. But I'm going to hold onto my stocks now.....OXR all the way! I'm just waiting for an August announcement from them, that should get the fires burning again...

oh, and one final..............*SIGH* :sly: stupid stock market :banghead: :p:

Brother stocks cannot keep going up forever

In May last year the index bottomed out at 3900, at the end of september was nearly 4800, fell to the high 4300s (oct24) and now in May, almost 5300 at the peaks... it has gone up 1000points (asx200) in less than 7 months

BHP at the october lows i remmeber was 19.48 and WPL 29.00, now at the highs almost 60% higher...

When the market goes up so fast in a short period of time, there is bound to be a correction, especially last week moved upwards very fast

Underlying fundamentals are still there, resource companies VERY profitable at the minute, but the shorter the time-frame ur looking at, the less fundamentals matter

For OXR, metals and gold were the main drivers of the share price, so of course, when they go down, OXR too will go down...

There is every reason for this to continue, to be honest, even though i lost a few Gs today and yesterday and probably a few more 2mrw, its better if we go down 8-10% like in october, all that will do is it will make the next leg up stronger

Even if we fall to 4400 (God forbid) the long-term is still up, as Wayne said, so nothing to worry about

LPA, u can sell whenever u make 15% gain or wateva, but the risk there is, if it runs away from u, u have to pay more $$$ to get in

I think some people new to the markets dont know what it feels like to lose money and for stocks to go down. We are still in a roaring bull-market, this correction will provide a buying opportunity for those who think they have missed the boat and for those who want to top up, and that buying will ignite the next leg of this bullrun

We may have a few more down weeks to go though, but like i said, when it comes back, it ill be much stronger and touch new highs (the resource stocks especially)

[rederob]

Yeah, almost as bad as having to hand it over to the tax man...
GP
I lost today what I would have had to pay on CGT had I sold OXR on the high last week.
Costello can wait until I have worked out how to transfer the profits into super - maybe have to run for Parliament on a super platform!
How do aI change my nic to Senatorederob?

[bvbfan]

If you look back at the history of OXR its had some great runs and severe pullbacks.
A few years ago it ran hard to 1.15 then pulled back to 75c nearly a 35% pullback.

Also the zinc price has dropped about 10% overnight, that should be the main driver not gold.

Zinc down from 1.70 to 1.50 area or about 60 million in revenue for OXR or about 15% in revenues in zinc alone
I think copper probably bit better in percentage terms

And its still well above my calculations from earlier in the thread which I figured would lead to 550mill in profit.
At now trading at a projected P/E of under 8 if we use 3.05 and the 550mill figure.


Would I buy now, probably not, likely too funds liquidating the commodities but this could be the opportunity for one of the the long rumoured takeover offers emerge.
I think we'll see under $3 this week


Just my opinion

[coyotte]

Excellent learning situation this

XAU has been around 4.5 for the last couple of months ( in the 3s indicates over bought , in the 5s oversold ) indicating POG was rising too fast

The mining stocks I follow inc. ORX where not indicating any fall in in base metals EXCEPT that since mid April as they continued to make new highs the
ADX indicator has been showing showing a weakening tread (i had put this down to May-June )

So have we seen a break in the tradition of stocks indicating the direction of their underlying asset ---- or is this just a major shake-out

Yikes-- we might need a new Federal Budget!!

Cheers
Coyotte

[blinkau]

I got in at $3.49 which was a bit too expensive. I only put in a small amount as i felt it was fairly high but its a good learning experince, I seen the highs now the lows comming around. You gotta wonder about the people who purchased it on Friday must be kicking themselves now :banghead:

Im guessing tomorrow we will open below $3 im wondering might be time to sotckup again if we see it reach $2.80. Over the long-term though im sure it will recover. Seen red all over IRESS today with all the stocks in my watch list :mad:

[rederob]

I got in at $3.49 which was a bit too expensive. I only put in a small amount as i felt it was fairly high but its a good learning experince, I seen the highs now the lows comming around. You gotta wonder about the people who purchased it on Friday must be kicking themselves now :banghead:

Im guessing tomorrow we will open below $3 im wondering might be time to sotckup again if we see it reach $2.80. Over the long-term though im sure it will recover. Seen red all over IRESS today with all the stocks in my watch list :mad:
Buy the dips in a rising market - it's hard to lose in the long term.
I was posting this same message about OXR when it was under 80 cents, and I was buying then.
I also bought more OXR today at the close.
I have never sold any of my OXR shares as the company is one of the few unhedged metal producers in the world.
In a commodity bull market it's the unhedged producers that are leveraged to rising/falling prices (like ZFX for zinc, and LHG for gold), and it's these stock that move mega percentages when the market runs.
Trust your judgement: OXR is a world class company that is making cash in spades.

[markrmau]

Looks like those who bought in the arvo yesterday will see a fantastic short cover kick in the morning (based on gold/copper as I write). Congrats.

Just a note if you are new to investing, this would have been a gamble that paid off. However, it is not a SAFE way to trade for beginners. Don't expect that just because everything turned out rosy this time, it will always be so.

[mlennox]

1230 CFDs in OXR @ 2.47 = $3001.20 @ 3% margin I had to front up with $150
1230 CFDS in OXR @ 3.74 = $4600.20

Gross Profit $1600.20
Less brokerage $20
Less interest $46.25

Net Profit $1532.75

Who said CFDs were rubbish again ?

I'll be looking to rebuy into OXR when the time is right the fundamentals are unchanged but the market has definately run ahead of itself and this correction was more then due.

[mlennox]

1230 CFDs in OXR @ 2.47 = $3001.20 @ 5% margin I had to front up with $150
1230 CFDS in OXR @ 3.74 = $4600.20

Gross Profit $1600.20
Less brokerage $20
Less interest $46.25

Net Profit $1532.75

Who said CFDs were rubbish again ?

I'll be looking to rebuy into OXR when the time is right the fundamentals are unchanged but the market has definately run ahead of itself and this correction was more then due.

slight error :P

[LPA]

Well, it opens at $3.23

Looks like we were lucky with that one yesterday Rederob :) Thanks for the advice as I now have twice as much stock as before because of your suggestion and it looks like (at this very early stage) it will recover nicely...

No more big gold, copper, or zinc drops please! :o

[kennas]

Don't get too excited LPA.

Be prepared for some more rocky waters ahead!

[LPA]

Yeah don't worry I am :) It was just nice to see something positive in the morning after the last two days ;) But I remain optimistic...

*edit* Gold is now sitting just shy of 700 again and OXR is at $3.26. Hopefully it can hold above 690 for the rest of the week, then we are good to go...no?

Well all the mining stocks are being bought again on the rally; top 5 most active stocks so far:

1. BHP BHP BLT FPO 3025 +32 +1.1%
2. OXR OXIANA FPO 321 +13 +4.2%
3. ZFX ZINIFEX FPO 1166 +66 +6.0%
4. AMP AMP FPO 993 +8 +0.8%
5. RIO RIO TINTO FPO 8324 +69 +0.8%

p.s. Please someone tell me if my constant updates are pointless or annoying ;) .....Just the best way to learn about these things for me, plus the vested interest :D

[rederob]

Well, it opens at $3.23
No more big gold, copper, or zinc drops please! :o
How else do you make the big profits?
markrmau wants us to exercise caution - perhaps buying when the market turns up.
Fortune favours the bold, and battlefields are littered with the dead.
So don't go into the kitchen if you want others to cook for you!

[michael_selway]

No more big gold, copper, or zinc drops please! :o

Actually there probably will be, its a volatile market esp when we are at all time highs

So caution as always, however medium term should be up, although longer term might be a turn around, so depends.

thx

MS

[LPA]

How else do you make the big profits?


True...True...but give me some time to figure out what I'm doing in the market first! lol :D

Thanks again for the help everyone...

[nizar]

Don't get too excited LPA.

Be prepared for some more rocky waters ahead!

I second that

We could still have that 8-10% correction we are due to have... and THEN... after everything gets hit hard... the buying will cause the next upwards leg in this bullish market

Its risky to be buying on a day like today IMO... :2twocents

The market has still run very hard very fast so a correction is still coming...

[LPA]

Does a market correction mean that OXR will go down as well even if gold/copper keeps steady or slowly higher? I mean we did see a 20% roughly drop in OXR over the last two days....isn't that a correction? Just trying to get my head around these things and the people here are so good at answering my questions I'm not going to stop asking :D

[professor_frink]

nizar, gold has already moved down by nearly 8% from its highs last week.
I do agree it's a little too early to jump back on board though, unless your very brave!

[michael_selway]

Does a market correction mean that OXR will go down as well even if gold/copper keeps steady or slowly higher? I mean we did see a 20% roughly drop in OXR over the last two days....isn't that a correction? Just trying to get my head around these things and the people here are so good at answering my questions I'm not going to stop asking :D

for OXR correction can be caused by a fall in commodities prices, which will also affect most resources stocks

Fall in DOW Jones affects everything, so OXR can be corrected that way also

thx

MS

[kennas]

I think the market correction most people have in mind when we talk about 'correction' is the All Ords, or ASX200 declining 8%, not individual stocks or even sectors.

Individual commodities have gone up between 100% and 400% over the past 2 years. A 10% drop in gold or zinc can not be considered a 'correction' under these conditions.

[LPA]

Another question about corrections :)....Is it typical for a market to bounce back like it has this morning (30 points)? If it does bounce back, then the correction hasn't really happened right and we should expect it again?

*edit* and we're over 700 once more for gold :)

[markrmau]

Is it typical for a market to bounce back like it has this morning (30 points)?

NO! One day the metals market WILL cool. The asx will then go into a prolonged bear market. It will be death by a thousand cuts.

Everyone will be hanging on, buying dips and thinking what a bargain they are getting stock for which was significantly more expensive the previous year. It will continue to drop and eventually they will realize they have fooled themselves and sell out for significant loss. Don't let this be you!

We are playing musical chairs here and there sure as hell aren't enough chairs. We just don't know when the music will stop.


Edit: How appropriate for my post #666. Didn't notice until I hit submit!

[LPA]

I love that your doomsday post is your 666th :D Not a good omen!

[bvbfan]

NO! One day the metals market WILL cool. The asx will then go into a prolonged bear market. It will be death by a thousand cuts.

Everyone will be hanging on, buying dips and thinking what a bargain they are getting stock for which was significantly more expensive the previous year. It will continue to drop and eventually they will realize they have fooled themselves and sell out for significant loss. Don't let this be you!

Sounds just like the NASDAQ - tech bubble bust. Those that lived through that should be able to understand this current situation a little better.

We've had a few corrections along the way but watch for lower lows in commodity prices. That will be a trigger for a mass exit

[rederob]

We are playing musical chairs here and there sure as hell aren't enough chairs. We just don't know when the music will stop.
In commodities, Mark, what is your time frame?
I have a sneaking suspicion that commodities will stay strong for as long as BRIC nations are determined to become "westernised" - a generation or more.
Within that time frame we will probably have a few mini boom and bust cycles as overproduction begats price collapse, and then under investment begats supply shortfalls and price spikes, etc, etc.
It will probably mean for OXR that we see it go through phases similar to those for BHP. Except that BHP endured the doldrums from the previous resource boom of the 80s: All it did was make the company more determined, focussed and competent in its core business. So it bounces back with a vengeance when the next cycle resumes.

[michael_selway]

In commodities, Mark, what is your time frame?
I have a sneaking suspicion that commodities will stay strong for as long as BRIC nations are determined to become "westernised" - a generation or more.
Within that time frame we will probably have a few mini boom and bust cycles as overproduction begats price collapse, and then under investment begats supply shortfalls and price spikes, etc, etc.
It will probably mean for OXR that we see it go through phases similar to those for BHP. Except that BHP endured the doldrums from the previous resource boom of the 80s: All it did was make the company more determined, focussed and competent in its core business. So it bounces back with a vengeance when the next cycle resumes.

rederob, when do u think is the next commodities bear market?

also do u think Africa will ever be a "china/india" on day? maybe the next supercycle bull market after this one is over?

thx

MS

[kennas]

rederob, you are right about BRIC, as long as the world aconomy stays ok and there's no big wars. By big, I mean Christain v Islamic world with maybe China and Russia backing either side.

The period 2000 - 2030 will be known as the BRIC evolution. Chindia will lead for most of this period, but I truelly believe that even the most bullish of us are underestimating what the shift from the countryside to the city will mean to these countries. Millions and millions and millions of people are going to need roads, footpaths, sanitation, telephones, TVs, medicine, sports stadiums, newspapers, computers, shoes, shoe laces, yada yada yada.

And most of all POWER! Just where is it going to come from? :confused:

[rederob]

rederob, when do u think is the next commodities bear market?
also do u think Africa will ever be a "china/india" on day? maybe the next supercycle bull market after this one is over?

MS
When the US economy's wheels fall off and its train wreck impacts on those nations that have bought its debt - that's just about everyone - we will have a big bear market.
Between now and then we should see some commodities run hot and cold: Titanium for the aerospace industry will be the next kicker, while lead prices have only the coat tails of copper to draw them on.
Africa will not get close to becoming westernised in my lifetime, unless I become a centurion, or unless western nations return cash or in kind support to reimburse them for much of the wealth we have stripped from them.

[rederob]

MS
When the US economy's wheels fall off and its train wreck impacts on those nations that have bought its debt - that's just about everyone - we will have a big bear market.

Maybe one of the wheels fell off last night.
Although copper is only 2% lower than Tuesday's close and gold is actually 2% higher.
As the morning lights up there is a slow recovery in silver prices - up 35cents from its $12.90 session low.
Will be an interesting day.

[moses]

I've decided I don't like interesting days...

[Lucstar]

Why do you guys think that metal prices will cool?
I mean China is in the greatest boom of all time and this boom will be sustained at least until the Olympics are over. For example, i don't see the iron ore prices busting any time soon. Maybe you guys are right in the fact that the commodity boom is unsustainable long term. However, i dont see any eractic downfalls in the short term

[michael_selway]

Why do you guys think that metal prices will cool?
I mean China is in the greatest boom of all time and this boom will be sustained at least until the Olympics are over. For example, i don't see the iron ore prices busting any time soon. Maybe you guys are right in the fact that the commodity boom is unsustainable long term. However, i dont see any eractic downfalls in the short term

yeah i agree with that, olympics is a big motivational driver atm, once its over surely there will be slow down

However prices can go ahead of themselves in the ST so thus a pull back

Also DOW Jones can affect everything, so if DOW is bearish, everything will generally be bearish regardless

thx

MS

[clowboy]

MOSES,

That was such an AWESOME reply. Worthy of framing. I could not have portryed my feelings better. I much prefer "normal" days also.

[LPA]

So begins another 'interesting' day....

$2.96 at open. Big drop in the asx - I wonder where this will go now :) Yet another crazy day to help me add to my store of knowledge!

[ctp6360]

ZFX has been going non-stop up since open though, haha wouldn't you kill yourself if youwere one of the ones that sold at 10.65, anyway I might be calling all of them SMART in a few days if things keep going this badly! My god lucky I have a strong heart!

[professor_frink]

be careful catching those knives ctp, works most of the time, but eventually you'll get cut!

[LPA]

Oh well, I think I'm just going to stop watching for the rest of the week now lol :sly:

I have faith that OXR is a fantastic company that will continue to have great growth (maybe not stupidly unrealistic market speculation growth but growth all the same), and once they sort out this Prominent Hill project in August I have a feeling their stock price is going to go up quite nicely.....time to hold on to the rollercoaster I feel - although I am now out of profit entirely with them for the time being :banghead: and no more funds available to top up at all for this month...and $3.14 looked like such a nice number :p:

Nice lesson learnt here for me about not 'catching falling knives' too :) I need to slow down my decision making process a bit... :D

[rederob]

The drop in OXR's share price is more than double that of the commodities it produces.
On the assumption there will be a bounce (and I seldom get these calls wrong), OXR will handsomely reward its patient fans and knife-cut opportunists.
Just remember that the fall in copper prices just a month ago was more severe in percentage terms and occurred when copper peaked just over $3.20 - copper has fallen to $3.55 today.
By the same token, gold at that time (25 April) was below $640 whereas its nearer $690 today.
So those that are in "fear" of the markets may make the mistake of selling into an already oversold market.
I reckon if copper goes $2.80 (the 27 April low) then we could have a new ballgame.
Not sure that world economies are in such bad shape - nickel prices actually rose overnight on tightening demand!

[LPA]

Well whichever analyst it was that said we would see OXR go to about $2.80 was right on the money. Opened at around $2.88 this morning....

How much lower can it really go?

[redandgreen]

What a blood bath....
Does anyone have any idea where the resistance point might be?

[LPA]

Just broke below $2.60

Also, can somebody help a new guy out and tell us what the value of the shares should be based on earnings and projected growth?

Is it's real value around the $2 mark that it was hovering near at the start of the year? I would just like some information on when this stock becomes too cheap so that I can average down and hopefully make back my losses more quickly when it goes back up ;)

I'm not too good at all the fundamental analysis so I would be quite interested in where this company stands because everybody was saying how cheap it was when it was at $3.50! Well if that's cheap, then this is getting psychotic crazy bargain cheap :p:

[redandgreen]

the low point for this stock , i.e. the most pessimistic analyst target price is $2.20 . This is the bare bones SP stripped of all the hype.

[Warren Buffet II]

Just broke below $2.60

Also, can somebody help a new guy out and tell us what the value of the shares should be based on earnings and projected growth?

Is it's real value around the $2 mark that it was hovering near at the start of the year? I would just like some information on when this stock becomes too cheap so that I can average down and hopefully make back my losses more quickly when it goes back up ;)

I'm not too good at all the fundamental analysis so I would be quite interested in where this company stands because everybody was saying how cheap it was when it was at $3.50! Well if that's cheap, then this is getting psychotic crazy bargain cheap :p:

This is no about fundamentals of anything, this share can go down to $2 next week if the market keeps this aversion against commodities and if the Fed increases rates next time again, you can be sure it will touch $2 and will keep going.

So put your stops very tight because the ride could be long and can hurt you.

WBII

[nizar]

This is no about fundamentals of anything, this share can go down to $2 next week if the market keeps this aversion against commodities and if the Fed increases rates next time again, you can be sure it will touch $2 and will keep going.

So put your stops very tight because the ride could be long and can hurt you.

WBII

True Warren

The shorter the time-frame u are looking at, the more fundamentals dont matter...

ALot of negative press and several people sitting of SIGNIFICANT gains with OXR, remember on october 24 bottom it was close to $1...

But i dont think Fed increasing rates has anything to do with us
Last year they rose rates 12 times, every month and our market still made significant gains...

Metals and Gold is the driver, when they recover, our market recovers

[Warren Buffet II]

True Warren

The shorter the time-frame u are looking at, the more fundamentals dont matter...

ALot of negative press and several people sitting of SIGNIFICANT gains with OXR, remember on october 24 bottom it was close to $1...

But i dont think Fed increasing rates has anything to do with us
Last year they rose rates 12 times, every month and our market still made significant gains...

Metals and Gold is the driver, when they recover, our market recovers

Hi Nizar,

The issue now with Fed is that there are clear signs that inflation is picking up, last year they were just adjusting the rates to more normal ones, now the increases are because inflation is firing up and they need to stop it.

WBII

[LPA]

Well, I must say that I'm not interested in this stocks in the short term - this was an investment, not a trading strategy...so I'm still quite happy about the company as a whole.

I guess we'll have to wait and see what it does at opening tomorrow. It almost went below $2.50 today, which is basically my average-down threshold and if it drops below about $2.45 I will buy more (although I did that when it dropped below $3.15 lol). In the longer term I know that the rest of this year will be good for them - just wait until the Indian wedding season kicks off at the end of the year to see what real gold prices look like :cool:...for an unhedged producer it will be bliss (India accounts for about 25% of the gold market atm). Probably followed by another disatrous may in '07 :p: stupid dang traders (as opposed to investors) speculating on a day to day basis and stressing me out! j/k of course as I know most people here are traders ;) ... :2twocents

[LPA]

ALot of negative press and several people sitting of SIGNIFICANT gains with OXR, remember on october 24 bottom it was close to $1...


What negative press? is that about resources in general? I haven't heard anything negative about OXR directly over the last few weeks...

Also, I'm sure alot of people were sitting on significant gains when BHP was at like $18 - I wouldn't want to be one of those profit takers now.

Also, about having tight stops...As an INVESTOR not a TRADER should I really be that concerned about the volatility at the moment? I say this because it is nearing my 20% loss boundary that I set for myself....but If I sell in such volatile/speculative times surely that is selling because of emotion and ignoring the fact that this company is still pulling gold and copper etc. out of the ground AS WE SPEAK and making a pretty large profit margin on it even if gold was at $500...as a long term investment that seems like a good thing to me no? Having said that, the traders clearly rule the stockmarket and don't give two hoots what the investors think!

[nizar]

What negative press? is that about resources in general? I haven't heard anything negative about OXR directly over the last few weeks...

Also, I'm sure alot of people were sitting on significant gains when BHP was at like $18 - I wouldn't want to be one of those profit takers now.

Also, about having tight stops...As an INVESTOR not a TRADER should I really be that concerned about the volatility at the moment? I say this because it is nearing my 20% loss boundary that I set for myself....but If I sell in such volatile/speculative times surely that is selling because of emotion and ignoring the fact that this company is still pulling gold and copper etc. out of the ground AS WE SPEAK and making a pretty large profit margin on it even if gold was at $500...as a long term investment that seems like a good thing to me no? Having said that, the traders clearly rule the stockmarket and don't give two hoots what the investors think!


LPA i meant negative press about stocks in general

Now to answer ur earlier question about the value of OXR
bvbfan did a post earlier i think last month about earnings for OXR for this year using (then) current prices, which are still lower than commodity prices now

He came to about au$500million NPAT for FY2006

The prices he used are likely to be the average or even below average, becoz they were conservative estimates, for 2006..

GOlden Grove is a ZINC MACHINE....

Nothing to worry about longer term

To answer ur earlier question about value of OXR
500mil is 38cps
pe of 10, so $3.80 is fair value, so now its considerably undervalued...

[coyotte]

What negative press? is that about resources in general? I haven't heard anything negative about OXR directly over the last few weeks...

Also, I'm sure alot of people were sitting on significant gains when BHP was at like $18 - I wouldn't want to be one of those profit takers now.

Also, about having tight stops...As an INVESTOR not a TRADER should I really be that concerned about the volatility at the moment? I say this because it is nearing my 20% loss boundary that I set for myself....but If I sell in such volatile/speculative times surely that is selling because of emotion and ignoring the fact that this company is still pulling gold and copper etc. out of the ground AS WE SPEAK and making a pretty large profit margin on it even if gold was at $500...as a long term investment that seems like a good thing to me no? Having said that, the traders clearly rule the stockmarket and don't give two hoots what the investors think!



Think your missing the point

using just a simple 21d EMA with BHP & buying /selling the next day after the signal

Sell March 05 $18

Buy June 05 $17
Sell Oct 05 $21

Buy Nov 05 $20
Sell Feb 06 $25

Buy March 06 $24
Sell May 06 $30

Profits a bit better than any div along the way

Don't blame traders for this drop ---- they would have ALL been out of OXR
long before it passed down below $3.30

i was out on May 9 when indicators where strongly diverging from the High
and would srongly suspect that so where a lot of others


probably best to wait for some consolidation after a fall like this -- bewary of a "dead cat bounce " -- most miners could go even lower -- ( flushed all the buyers out )


Best of luck
Coyotte

[markrmau]

pe of 10, so $3.80 is fair value


Just be careful here, it is not appropriate to use simple p/e ratios to value a mining stock. Many other factors need to be taken into account: mine life, commodity prices going forwards, risk of beaconsfield or cbh style cavein etc...

[michael_selway]

Just be careful here, it is not appropriate to use simple p/e ratios to value a mining stock. Many other factors need to be taken into account: mine life, commodity prices going forwards, risk of beaconsfield or cbh style cavein etc...

thats true u know, btw here are the new OXR forecasts

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 5.6 30.4 20.3 13.4
DPS -- 2.0 2.0 2.0

thx

MS

[LPA]

Thanks for the replies everyone, interesting reading and it has taught me alot...

I guess I'll just sit on this one...I just have the feeling that if I sell to cut my losses during such a turbulent month I will be kicking myself later for it. Also, at the level that I am trading, brokerage fees start to add up after a few trades and really do start to make an impact. Time to go do something else for a week or so and then revisit....Hopefully they won't have gone bust by then :D

[Fung]

Think your missing the point

using just a simple 21d EMA with BHP & buying /selling the next day after the signal

Sell March 05 $18

Buy June 05 $17
Sell Oct 05 $21

Buy Nov 05 $20
Sell Feb 06 $25

Buy March 06 $24
Sell May 06 $30

Profits a bit better than any div along the way

Don't blame traders for this drop ---- they would have ALL been out of OXR
long before it passed down below $3.30

i was out on May 9 when indicators where strongly diverging from the High
and would srongly suspect that so where a lot of others


probably best to wait for some consolidation after a fall like this -- bewary of a "dead cat bounce " -- most miners could go even lower -- ( flushed all the buyers out )


Best of luck
Coyotte

Just wondering what's the signal which makes you buy/sell ?

[coyotte]

Just wondering what's the signal which makes you buy/sell ?


BHP was just a simple example

But with OXR -- for confirmation of Price action (No 1)

ADX -- 21/13 and/or 14/7
Twiggs Money Flow 14 and/or 21
OBV ---- 13

ADX had been flatening since April 24 --- D+ falling -- D- rising with confirmation
on may 4 (short term ) ADX 14/7 cross over & falling


TMF heading lower against higher Prices
OBV neutrial
red candles 2 to 1 near the top

the weight of evidence pointed to a short term correction ( not a massacer)
SELL May 9 & Buy back on recovery


But those 3 Doji after May9 would have been more than enough if i was still in
in OXR @ the time



Cheers Coyotte

[LPA]

Copper up 12%, gold regaining some ground and staying pretty stable....should be a good day for OXR.

Damn I wish I had more cash two days ago :banghead:

[Fung]

BHP was just a simple example

But with OXR -- for confirmation of Price action (No 1)

ADX -- 21/13 and/or 14/7
Twiggs Money Flow 14 and/or 21
OBV ---- 13

ADX had been flatening since April 24 --- D+ falling -- D- rising with confirmation
on may 4 (short term ) ADX 14/7 cross over & falling


TMF heading lower against higher Prices
OBV neutrial
red candles 2 to 1 near the top

the weight of evidence pointed to a short term correction ( not a massacer)
SELL May 9 & Buy back on recovery


But those 3 Doji after May9 would have been more than enough if i was still in
in OXR @ the time



Cheers Coyotte

Hmm.... Thanks for you reply but i don't really understands..
Would you please explain futuremore? Sorry i am a newbie and i am trying to learn.

[coyotte]

Fung
If you go to www.incrediblecharts.com and download the free software, i'll show you what i was looking at:

@ View ---- Candles
@ Indicators -- set up a ADX 14 with optinal smoothing 7
@ Indicators -- Twiggs Money Flow ---- 14


ADX --- you will notice that since April 24 OXR was making new highs But the D+ line is diverging down ( which is also shown on the 21/13 setup ) which is indicating that the trend is weakening
on May 4 the ADX crosses below the 13Day line ( signaling a exit )
OXR continues to make more highs --- but ADX continues to fall and stay below the 7 day trigger line ---- D+ continues to fall or flaten


Twiggs Money Flow -- Since April 20 TMF had been diverging down (indicating distribution) whilst OXR made new highs --- when i noticed this i switched from medium ( 21/13 day indicator settings to shorter 14/7 )

Price : Red Candels where becoming greater than green -- indicating selling @ end of day --- tails on the greens where mostly UP ( indicating selling at the higher prices ) the non-confirmed Doji and compressing Ave True Range showed the OXR probably wasn't being chased anymore !


Keep your stops tight (switch from L/M term to Short term settings) when a
stock just looks like its getting toppy

If your wrong just buy back in --- if your right buy back in @ cheaper price when it is safe do do so --- OXR @ the moment would have stay above $3.30 using count back methods --- May22 Low to May17 High

Apart from Price Action (Candels, TrendLine, MAs,Patterns) i only use the ADX and TMF ---- KISS


Entery similar exept Volume and if appliable "Count Back" MUST be verified


hope this is of help
if not feel welcome to continue

you will find Incredible Charts has all you need for position trading -- have to juggle a bit to include GMMAs -- and its FREE with a very helpfull forum



Cheers
Coyotte

[coyotte]

Fung

A correctly set-up ADX has 4 lines

1: D+ or P(ositive ) Bulls

2: D- or N(egative) Bears

3: ADX ( usually set @ 21 or 14 )

4: ADX trigger line ( usually a setting 50% to 66% of ADX )

in a long Position the ADX must remain above the Trigger Line

[LPA]

http://www.oxiana.com.au/_data/docs/announcements/2006/00617432.pdf

Oxiana to Sell its Philippines Interest to Royalco

What do people think about this news? Any thoughts as to how this may affect the stock price next week...

Also, does anybody here think that the IPO would be a good buy?

[lewstherin]

I wouldn't touch any mining companies that had majority interests in the Phillipines mainly because the Phili government are seriously untrustworthy and corrupt, plus they are heavily influenced by anti-mining Catholic bishops. Have a look at my comments in the LAF thread for what can happen.

Maybe if the Philis get their crap together, but until then major sovereign risk.

IMO, its probably a good move for OXR to get rid of what could be a very risky venture.