Fundamentals of this company appear very sound and it looks like it could be heading towards 24cps (current 19.5), some analysts are predicting 35 cents. It definately looks to me one do well over the next 12 months. The chart looks interesting and will be worth watching next week. Financials out today look OK too. Does anybody have anything negative on CBH?
RichKid
30th-August-2004, 11:57 PM
Hi there,
No negatives from me, I'm considering buying too- maybe at around 19c or just below.
RichKid
brerwallabi
16th-September-2004, 09:47 PM
Annual report out today, I can only download the first 8 pages for some reason but what I have read so far looks good. It certainly had a good result (profit was previously annouced) in my books but hell I am no financial expert. I had previously anticipated CBH moving north and instead what does it do, it goes the other way. My descision was to hold, it closed today at 18cps hoping for a lift tomorrow its my pick in the comp as well. Zinc has had a slight hiccup lately however the outlook still looks good. Just tried again and still cant get the complete report ggggrrrr.
brerwallabi
27th-September-2004, 03:38 PM
In a positive position (my pick) in the Sept stock pick comp for the first time. CBH has moved up from its support at 17.5cps to 19.5cps at close friday a nice jump with considerable volume. A lot of buyers there today a bit of a stand off at the momment, seems to have stalled at 19cps, I was hoping for a close above 20cps today. Still I long way to go to my target of 24cps this is one I will stay with as I feel it could push north any time.
brerwallabi
30th-September-2004, 12:43 PM
Looks to be knocking on the door of a nice run chart shows EMA crossover with good volume building. I think I would have been close to wiinning the Sept tipping comp if there were a few more days in the month
brerwallabi
19th-December-2004, 09:30 AM
Took advantage of CBH @ 17.5cps again, think they will make 21 -21.5cps again this is where the resistance has been. Do any tech experts see any other indicators coming into play?
tech/a
19th-December-2004, 10:37 AM
B.
This stock is ranging.
Think your trading it the only way it should be traded at the moment.
IE.
Buying at the low of the range (use a tight stop like 17.0c in this case) and selling the high.
Hint;
You maybe lucky enough to be on an upward move that breaks out so to be sure that the stock isnt going to break resistance,sell on a downday after resistance comes into play.
tech
brerwallabi
22nd-January-2005, 06:59 PM
This one was a beauty worked out exactly as I planned, sold out at 21.5cps, looks like it might reverse direction as per doji indications will look at re-entry again next week if it falls, as this may have a run with all the talk on possible zinc shortages down the track
brerwallabi
24th-February-2005, 10:50 PM
Zinifex seems to be getting all the attention, but this little one is up 60% in just two months and looks like it might go higher still, probably this post should be on another thread somewhere, as an example of where you sell to soon and the thing keeps going through the roof - bought at 17.5, sold at 21.5, but i got my money and that was always my plan, since i have bought elsewhere and sorta doing nicely with the CBH money but would be a lot more in front if i had stayed on.
monoply
25th-February-2005, 09:42 AM
Announced a .5 cent dividend after market close yesterday.
RichKid
18th-March-2005, 10:42 PM
CBH a bit weak, a buying opportunity? Closed at 30c and rejected lower prices, good volume, need more. Great leverage to Zinc and was trending well, might just have got ahead of itself. Let's see how it goes, may just be profit taking in Zinc stocks, noticed ZFX appeared to be reversing, could be the same for CBH but too early to call. Might just be a lower trend trajectory with general uptrend preserved, or a consolidation, who knows.
RichKid
10th-April-2005, 06:47 PM
CBH appears to be regaining previous trajectory, based on recovery in Zinc price (correction over??) imo and annct of recent Silver sale (see last week's annct). A congestion area coming up. A lot of activiity last week as volumes increased.
Brer, are you still folllowing this?
brerwallabi
16th-April-2005, 05:21 PM
Rich, have been following it very closely, no longer hold, missed the run into the 30's, I had been in and out of this a few times last year and took another profit and was expecting to buy back at 18cps and the thing broke out, managed to get back in at 24.5cps and sold at 29cps, looks like it might be a buy again now, 32.5 looks very possible and even 35, the company is very healthy as well and I think undervalued at present price, have a look at its chart its very similar to Zinifex.
RichKid
4th-May-2005, 04:52 PM
Rich, have been following it very closely, no longer hold, missed the run into the 30's, I had been in and out of this a few times last year and took another profit and was expecting to buy back at 18cps and the thing broke out, managed to get back in at 24.5cps and sold at 29cps, looks like it might be a buy again now, 32.5 looks very possible and even 35, the company is very healthy as well and I think undervalued at present price, have a look at its chart its very similar to Zinifex.
Brer,
I like it too but the general market sentiment and the poor Zinc price chart are having their say imo. Looking dangerously close to falling below support. Will be a bit hard to break through again without Zinc rallying strongly. Metals take their time, could be an end of year runner.
brerwallabi
4th-May-2005, 09:44 PM
Looking forward to the next cycle, zinc still looks good to me just taking a breather, might take one too, if this one drops to 21ish then i'm back in, I have the patience to wait for it.
markrmau
27th-June-2005, 02:06 PM
I have been following this one for a month or so looking for the right time to buy. Looks like there was a bit of a fire sale this morning so I picked up 1/2 what I would like at 23.5c. As always I don't advocate bottom picking.
mime
27th-June-2005, 05:05 PM
I bought into this stock at $0.28 per share. It there is good demand for zinc and hopfully it'll show later in the share price.
brerwallabi
28th-June-2005, 11:40 PM
Fundamentals of this company look good, it signalling almost buy to me, read my previous - 21ish and i'm buying, this i can afford to hold for a while, zinc, nickel and gold always a demand and there does not look an oversupply. A great little trading stock too but like anything buyer beware.
markrmau
29th-June-2005, 07:23 AM
GSBW have just down graded their zinc target because of the increase in LME stocks and suggest there could be another 60000t squirrelled away somewhere.
http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=1503
Zinc spot price also seems to have tanked on the LME (over 2%)
Zinc prices for next year look a little better though.
brerwallabi
12th-August-2005, 05:32 PM
CBH closed at .29 today, I have been trading this for quite a while, I got back on @.24 cant see any reason why this wont get to circa .35, bit of a spurt at the end of the day today and a bit of volume the last few days also finished higher every day the last four days and the zinc business is starting to look good again. Anybody else have any thoughts on how high this could go and a divended slso on the cards?
el_ninj0
13th-August-2005, 02:17 PM
CBH closed at .29 today, I have been trading this for quite a while, I got back on @.24 cant see any reason why this wont get to circa .35, bit of a spurt at the end of the day today and a bit of volume the last few days also finished higher every day the last four days and the zinc business is starting to look good again. Anybody else have any thoughts on how high this could go and a divended slso on the cards?
I would have to agree brerwallabi, good time to buy imo. I cant see it coming down from this new run any time soon. I think i should hit around 35cps, mabey even 40 this time. Either way, you'll stand to make a good 20% on your money atleast. I'd sell out at 34. Happy trading.
kosher
4th-October-2005, 08:10 AM
does any1 know anything about cbh?
RichKid
20th-October-2005, 04:40 PM
For some reason this little co is finding it hard to breakthrough 30c, really doing the hard yards now after making a spectacular breakout sometime ago. I've been scanning quite a few stocks recently to see how they're coping with the dowturn, CBH has been sluggish for the last few months.
RichKid
7th-November-2005, 04:29 PM
Big falls ON VOLUME, which means big holders are exiting imo. Price has just about halved in the past few months. Not over yet by the chart, lots of red.
Maybe we'll see another range play Brer?
brerwallabi
7th-November-2005, 10:47 PM
Big falls ON VOLUME, which means big holders are exiting imo. Price has just about halved in the past few months. Not over yet by the chart, lots of red.
Maybe we'll see another range play Brer?
Rich
Will be watching closely tomorrow a big white engulfing candle, could signal a reversal, if it opens lower, still might be a bit of selling pressure, I might be in like Flynn.30 cents definately not on the cards but looks like 24 cents could be a possibilty.
mime
9th-November-2005, 09:02 AM
Yeah what happened to the stock price??
brerwallabi
9th-November-2005, 11:46 PM
Well its a mining stock and its disappointed I am sure you know why. The thing is there is always a trading opportunity, I feel myself only me myself I that this will eventually go back to the highs of previous but definately quite a while I AM WATCHING THIS VERY CLOSELY but I cant advise but I WILL TRADE IT when the opportunity is there. Will let you all know. I do not hold.
brerwallabi
10th-November-2005, 10:43 PM
Missed it and it went back up to 18.5 ah well, I think I know the bottom now.
77TRADER77
5th-February-2006, 09:43 PM
:) This is interesting stock..Written up in Aust Financial Review Mkt Watch Thurs
have a cave in and stock goes up
Recently drilled two holes in January according to partner site PTS (50% interest) and Merryl Lynch Nominees recorded as having ten percent of each ,
now trading suspended ..pending wednesday announcement by ASX.
Should I buy more or sell?
Joe Blow
5th-February-2006, 10:04 PM
Should I buy more or sell?
Hi 77TRADER77,
Just thought I'd let you know that we do not allow members to ask for specific buy or sell advice on particular stocks, as any response to this request may be considered the provision of financial advice according to ASIC guidelines. Financial advice can only be provided by licensed financial advisors.
You may, of course, ask for people's opinions on this - or any other - stock. :)
Bobby
5th-February-2006, 10:07 PM
:) This is interesting stock..Written up in Aust Financial Review Mkt Watch Thurs
have a cave in and stock goes up
Recently drilled two holes in January according to partner site PTS (50% interest) and Merryl Lynch Nominees recorded as having ten percent of each ,
now trading suspended ..pending wednesday announcement by ASX.
Should I buy more or sell?
Hold ! -Why CBH will be seeking more capital for a reason !.
The announcement will tell you why (think I can guess ). :D
Bob.
mime
2nd-March-2006, 02:52 PM
What's everyones opinons of this stocks long term prospects?
brerwallabi
4th-March-2006, 12:11 PM
If CBH gets back on track and shows the market that it can produce its predictions, this well could be rerated. It is still a long way off from recovering to where it was before the mine collapse. Remember however what the price of zinc is today compared tp 12 months ago and then consider the PEM share price up times 3 over 9 months, KZL up times 2.5 over similar period, and CBH has gone nowhere. Full production and the price of zinc equates to CBH being 75cents in my book.
YOUNG_TRADER
26th-April-2006, 03:34 PM
CBH heavily undervalued Zinc Player!!!!!!!!
Just bought today nearly $50k worth,
3rd Qtr Report should be out by friday,
Its one of the four major Zinc producers but its the smallest,
should be $1 by June!!!!!
Will post up more properly soon, along with an excel valuation
porkpie324
26th-April-2006, 05:16 PM
i have held cbh a few times, sold on last rally at .46c. looking at them lately there's lots of sellors, i hope the last post is right,cbh is a favorite of mine but i think i'll wait till the breakout. porkpie
michael_selway
26th-April-2006, 06:07 PM
CBH heavily undervalued Zinc Player!!!!!!!!
Just bought today nearly $50k worth,
3rd Qtr Report should be out by friday,
Its one of the four major Zinc producers but its the smallest,
should be $1 by June!!!!!
Will post up more properly soon, along with an excel valuation
Cool thx, yeah just the recent prodction blowout affected them this year 2006 as you can see, but hopefully they can rectify ASAP and get to full capacity
Yeah collapse of mine was a bad for company, but they should have moved on by now,
I reckon they will produce around 80k t Zn during 06/07 @ cash cost of probably 20c they will be having huge margins!
They also have 2-3 more projects in the pipe line, along with JV with Tech Cominco (Worlds Largest Zinc Producer)
All up about 750m shares (600m + 100m Conv notes)
750m @ 50c = $375m
I have rough EPS of 15c for them once production back in full swing @ 8x per = $1.40
Expect Big things!
YOUNG_TRADER
26th-April-2006, 07:30 PM
Forgot to add the reason I have just been watching is the stock hit some heavy resistance between 47c - 52c lots of selling, especially around 49c-52c, so I was happy to sit back and wait for a possible drift lower,
However Zinc has been hiting records highs lately and has helped the stock hold around 47c (a low of 44c few days back) this combined with the fact that CBH always releases its qtrly 1 month after the end ie End March qtr = release in April, means that its qtrly is due out in the next 2 days, ie Thurs/Fri
I expect to see a good recovery from the mine collapse showing strong Zinc production, along with further advancements of its other 2-3 projects.
So wasn't prepared to wait,
As stated will get an excel sheet done soon
Cheers :D
YOUNG_TRADER
26th-April-2006, 11:37 PM
Here is a very rough Excel sheet I have created for it,
Has my target range = 80c - $1.20 for its Endeavour Project alone, once it reaches full production,
Its Sulphur Springs should add alot of extra cash,
Haven't had time to check for errors,
If you see any give me a shout,
Cheers Chaps!
brerwallabi
27th-April-2006, 12:24 AM
Back into CBH for $19k, I am now thinking about the $1.20's. I might be being a bit conservative here.
Hoping this jumps again when we have some further knowledge of progress re back towards full production.
SRI has commenced drilling at Kangaroo Caves which is funded by CBH. Kangaroo Caves lays next to Sulphur Springs and the drilling is to firm up resources.
SRI ema's all pointing upwards gone from 5cps to 7cps since start of the month this will also benifit CBH as well.
RichKid
27th-April-2006, 01:15 AM
From a TA point of view this appears to be a triangle but it could become a flag too. Some selling on Wednesday on notable/high volume so let's see what happens today, general pattern is accumulation at these lower levels, some supply left at near highs. Maybe people are nervous about the report and taking profits....or maybe they're just taking profits! I first heard of this as a Fat prophets pick but have to admit I didn't follow it too closely although Brer has been keeping an eye on it for awhile. Looks good now if it can breakout to new highs.
YOUNG_TRADER
27th-April-2006, 09:38 AM
Anyone spot any errors on my excel sheet?
Please point out, cheers,
Also Richie Rich (Rich Kid :D ) I see a flag, consolidating before continuing strong uptrend and hopefully qtryl release is just whats needed! :)
YOUNG_TRADER
27th-April-2006, 09:54 AM
I think 49c - 52c has so much sell depth because few months back about 100m shares were issued @ 26c so 49c - 52c is about 100% profit for those who took @ 26c, so once passed, it'll reach for the sky!
nizar
27th-April-2006, 10:09 AM
YT i been watching also for a while, seems to be some resistance at 45-50c...
Need to overcome that, then IMO it will run hard..
Broker consensus eps for 2007 is 9.8cps... this was done after half-yearly when zinc spot price was us$1.00/lb... plus u have exploration upside from their JVs...Exploration in CObar Basin, Panorama JV and Napier JV can only add to the upside, then uv got broken hill as well...
Toho ZInc the largest shareholder with 25%, then ANZ, National, JP Morgan and Westpac CUstodians all in the top10...
Toho ZInc, largest zinc producer in japan, listed on nikkei, in the last yr sp tripled....
So its trading at 5x forward 2007 earnings, id say $1 easy...
If it wasnt for the cave-in, we already would be there...
That was unfortunate, for illustrates how crucial it is to diversify operational and production risk - SS will do just that, and it will increase zinc production by 50%..
Ill be looking to get in soon, i dunno about $50k though, lol...
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/060405/18/n3qs.html
Short-term, i think the share price will be supported by:
1. rising zinc spot price
2. open pit resource base reserve based on resource model will be completed very soon... they said "in the next few weeks" in their 2/03/06 announcement
3. BFS for SS completed by mid-year
YOUNG_TRADER
28th-April-2006, 10:38 AM
Damn, original buy order was sitting @ 41c, yesterday I thought, hmm stock hasn't broken below 45c, is in a 'flag' phase, so shouldn't go much lower and qtrly should be out, so I bumped order up to 47c,
Should have waited, could have saved myself $6k in buying them,
Oh well, excellent buying for new buyers
coladuna
28th-April-2006, 10:42 AM
I got in at .420, although my order was set at .430.
Pretty happy with the price.
Any explanations on why it went down so much all of a sudden this morning apart from general market mood?
RichKid
28th-April-2006, 10:45 AM
I got in at .420, although my order was set at .430.
Pretty happy with the price.
Any explanations on why it went down so much all of a sudden this morning apart from general market mood?
My guess, China interest rate rise and effect on metals, or maybe quarterly report has bad news.
YOUNG_TRADER
28th-April-2006, 10:57 AM
My guess, China interest rate rise and effect on metals, or maybe quarterly report has bad news.
I watched it happen, general market mood took it to this weeks support level of 45c any lower and it would 'break' the 'flag' a samll 25k order sold @ 44.5c and then I saw snowball panic!
Although qtrly is not out yet, given production disruption, anything above 10k t of Zinc will be a damn good recovery!
Stock needs to close around 46c to keep flag intact!
So many nervous sellers!
YOUNG_TRADER
28th-April-2006, 12:17 PM
Well recovery is taking alot longer than expected, with full production not expected until Sep 2006,
Still Sulphur Springs looks to have huge potential,
13.8Mt @ 3.7% Zn + 1.4% Cu + 21g/t Ag
= 0.5Mt Zn + 200kt Cu + 10m oz's Ag
Gross Value = Over $4b AUD @ todays spots!
As does Broken Hill
9.2Mt @ 4.1% Zn + 2.8% Pb + 31g/t Ag
= 370kt Zn + 250kt Pb + 10m Oz's Ag
Gross Value = Close on $2b AUD @ today's Spots
coladuna
28th-April-2006, 12:20 PM
SP has been struggling around .425-.430 mark all day.
Hopefully, it'll recover a bit before the market closes.
michael_selway
28th-April-2006, 12:20 PM
I got in at .420, although my order was set at .430.
Pretty happy with the price.
Any explanations on why it went down so much all of a sudden this morning apart from general market mood?
Zinc prices plunged over night, that was the main factor i think
thx
MS
brerwallabi
29th-April-2006, 12:21 AM
Zinc prices plunged over night, that was the main factor i think
thx
MS
Zinc just having that little correction similar to when it fell below $1.00 a lb earlier this year before its next step up.
nizar
29th-April-2006, 12:46 AM
Zinc just having that little correction similar to when it fell below $1.00 a lb earlier this year before its next step up.
Yesterday zinc fell by 4%, this is day-to-day movements, not a correction..
The correction earlier in the year was not by any means little: it fell from 1.08 to 89c, thats more than 17% and very significant...
Zinc has already recovered, currently up 3.6%...
Kipp
29th-April-2006, 12:47 AM
SP has been struggling around .425-.430 mark all day.
Hopefully, it'll recover a bit before the market closes.
Yeah, all the Zn boys got punished today, TZN, ZFX... you're not alone...
brerwallabi
29th-April-2006, 01:24 AM
Yesterday zinc fell by 4%, this is day-to-day movements, not a correction..
The correction earlier in the year was not by any means little: it fell from 1.08 to 89c, thats more than 17% and very significant...
Zinc has already recovered, currently up 3.6%...
Zinc dropped by 8c per lb it has not dropped anything like that since February and was the second biggest drop in 12 months. Its great to see its going back up tonight.
coladuna
2nd-May-2006, 07:36 PM
Was a pretty good day for the stock. Any comments?
michael_selway
2nd-May-2006, 07:52 PM
Was a pretty good day for the stock. Any comments?
I think its a great Zinc producer stock, low fwd PE (good growth)
However just this FY 2006, is a loss, because of production problems. Whether it will spill over to later periods and by how much who knows. But they have said full production by Sep 2006 Quarter recently
Making a good come back today up 8% to 47.5. Haven't seen any news about this stock either, so must just be the positive sentiment driving it higher along with the rest of the market.
YOUNG_TRADER
5th-May-2006, 10:55 AM
Or it could just be the fact that today is the RBC second Annual Zinc conference being held in Syd,
CBH is most probably presenting, just haven't released their presentation yet,
To see what I'm on about check PEM's ann today
michael_selway
5th-May-2006, 02:22 PM
Or it could just be the fact that today is the RBC second Annual Zinc conference being held in Syd,
CBH is most probably presenting, just haven't released their presentation yet,
Wow, what a day for this stock.
I know price of zinc rose overnight but does that justify increase of more than 10% in one day? I was surprised because there was no other siginificant ann released either. Not that I'm complaining. :D
nizar
5th-May-2006, 05:01 PM
earnings have been upgraded for 11.4cps in 2007
all zincers seem to be trading on very low pe for 2007 forward earnings
cbh: 4.4x
zfx: 5.4x
kzl: 7.8x
pem: 4.6x
and what price have analysts use to calculate 2007 forecast earnings, probably $1.00/lb... so any suprise will be to the UPSIDE... :D
michael_selway
5th-May-2006, 05:24 PM
Wow, what a day for this stock.
I know price of zinc rose overnight but does that justify increase of more than 10% in one day? I was surprised because there was no other siginificant ann released either. Not that I'm complaining. :D
Actually it is because of the Zinc Price about 5% increase on LME overnight, thus nearly most of the below rose alot today
Nizar, actually they updated alot of forecasts today, see below
.....
Thanks guys for these great posts on metals, very helpful guides, much appreciated. I note there was some resistance, as expected, at the old highs for CBH, might see some consolidation before the next breakout, all depends on Zinc price over the weekend imo.
nizar
5th-May-2006, 06:02 PM
Actually it is because of the Zinc Price about 5% increase on LME overnight, thus nearly most of the below rose alot today
yes i noticed MS but i thought it was updated after the quarterly reports
OXR 15.1cps earnings for 2008
WAT A JOKE
Thats when prominent hill will come and double gold production and add a considerable amount of copper also...
Haha.. yeh 15.1... we'll see about that...
Kipp
5th-May-2006, 06:08 PM
Wow, what a day for this stock.
I know price of zinc rose overnight but does that justify increase of more than 10% in one day? I was surprised because there was no other siginificant ann released either. Not that I'm complaining. :D
Just remember, that a 2% increase in price can mean a 10% increase in profits (cause you have to factor in operating costs). e.g. if operating costs were $1.00/lb, a price increase from $1.50 to $1.55 would be a 10% increase in profit margin.
Well, all the Zn players had a nice run today... but none as strong as CBH- good luck to those that bought in in the low 40's...
kgee
8th-May-2006, 06:24 PM
A nice breakout ...let's hope the poz holds strong
michael_selway
8th-May-2006, 07:04 PM
A nice breakout ...let's hope the poz holds strong
Yeah unconfirmed rumours of takeover from another forum?
but not sure yeah
thx
MS
Kipp
8th-May-2006, 07:19 PM
I have rough EPS of 15c for them once production back in full swing @ 8x per = $1.40
Expect Big things!
Damn YT- don't you get sick of always being right!!! :D (CBH, BMO, TZN<, SMY...) You're fast overtaking the chicken and Richo as the new ASF guru.
Guess your CBH buy in at 46c don't look so bad after all...
tech/a
8th-May-2006, 09:00 PM
Bought today also at 53c.
Expecting 65.5c from Measured Move Analysis.
Stop 49.5c
YOUNG_TRADER
8th-May-2006, 09:23 PM
Damn YT- don't you get sick of always being right!!! :D (CBH, BMO, TZN<, SMY...) You're fast overtaking the chicken and Richo as the new ASF guru.
Guess your CBH buy in at 46c don't look so bad after all...
:D ;) :p:
kgee
8th-May-2006, 11:39 PM
Hey Michael did the other forum suggest who might be the interested takeover party?
RichKid
8th-May-2006, 11:49 PM
Hey Michael did the other forum suggest who might be the interested takeover party?
My take on it, but would be good to hear from Michael if there's somethign concrete: Imo it might have been pure speculation after Teck Cominco's bid today for Inco but CBH is a great little co by all reports. Not sure if that necessarily means there's a concrete offer in the works from anyone. The relevant sector/industry normally gets a bit of a boost when there are predators chomping around.
michael_selway
8th-May-2006, 11:53 PM
Hey Michael did the other forum suggest who might be the interested takeover party?
ZFX I believe, but I think its BS at this stage ;)
btw metals down atm, breather tommrrow
http://www.kitcometals.com
thx
MS
emma
9th-May-2006, 06:56 AM
Tech A:"Bought today also at 53c.
Expecting 65.5c from Measured Move Analysis.
Stop 49.5c"
Could you please explain? I've done a couple of couple of price projections but they don't match - (I hold CBH).
tech/a
9th-May-2006, 07:17 AM
Currently at the office but its simply a measurement from last trough to last peak added to the bottom of the latest trough in this move.
I'll post the chart tonight.
kgee
9th-May-2006, 03:53 PM
Apparently Hartley's has a report that values CBH at $2.29 a share on spot prices....I haven't confirmed this yet
michael_selway
9th-May-2006, 04:25 PM
Apparently Hartley's has a report that values CBH at $2.29 a share on spot prices....I haven't confirmed this yet
really how did they get that? and what PE/EPS at $2.29
thx
MS
nizar
9th-May-2006, 05:46 PM
MS u must be taking another look at CBH or be holding by now surely?
I dont know what it is with broker forecasts, it seems they do not factor in non-producing mines into their forecasts... which means if Sulfur Springs does go though and add 65ktonnes copper and 75ktonnes of zinc as per forecasts, then surely earnings in 2008 will be MUCH HIGHER than forecasted...
Maybe they are waiting for BFS to be completed in June/July, i wonder what the sp will be by then...
Similar situation with Prominent Hill and Oxiana.. 2008 earnings lower than 2007!! ... they will earn maybe 45cps in 2008 if metal prices stay at current levels...
For CBH I reckon $1+ by the end of this year surely, it will be the first to double from here out of ZFX and KZL and PEM imo... :2twocents
kgee
9th-May-2006, 06:01 PM
Michael I just checked the report on their website
http://www.cms.cbhresources.com.au/shops/cbhresources/catalogue/c9
Their current valuation is at 54 cents and 58 if the convertible notes are not redeemed... the 2.29 is at spot prices.
Check it out.
Some believe that Hartley's are conservative.
tech/a
9th-May-2006, 08:23 PM
Measured move
nizar
9th-May-2006, 08:32 PM
Michael I just checked the report on their website
http://www.cms.cbhresources.com.au/shops/cbhresources/catalogue/c9
Their current valuation is at 54 cents and 58 if the convertible notes are not redeemed... the 2.29 is at spot prices.
Check it out.
Some believe that Hartley's are conservative.
UBS forecast zinc prices to average $1.65 in 2006 and $1.85 in 2007
Some stocks take years for their value to be realised though...
michael_selway
11th-May-2006, 01:40 PM
For CBH I reckon $1+ by the end of this year surely, it will be the first to double from here out of ZFX and KZL and PEM imo... :2twocents
Yeah it might, depends on zinc prices/LME supplies and whether they can get into full production as forecasted in Sep 06 Quarter
Out of those 4, imo in terms of reliability (risk) and potential
ZFX, PEM, KZL, CBH in order
But yeah these 4 are crazy not to have, should have at least one of them imo
thx
MS
YOUNG_TRADER
11th-May-2006, 03:40 PM
CBH heavily undervalued Zinc Player!!!!!!!!
Just bought today nearly $50k worth,
3rd Qtr Report should be out by friday,
Its one of the four major Zinc producers but its the smallest,
should be $1 by June!!!!!
Will post up more properly soon, along with an excel valuation
hmmmmm can it reach $1 by June still ? ? ?
I am not sure, but if it does :D :D :D :D :D , if not June probably Sept
nizar
11th-May-2006, 07:06 PM
hmmmmm can it reach $1 by June still ? ? ?
I am not sure, but if it does :D :D :D :D :D , if not June probably Sept
YT look at their website, there is a report from Hartleys valuing CBH at $2.29 on current spot prices..
Zinc and Copper are NOT at their highs IMO...
Nice to see zinc moving, was at 1.45-1.55 for a while, now smashed through 1.60... we know that when zinc runs, it can run (how quick was it from 89c to 1.40! the 2nd time around after the correction from 1.08 to 89c).... IMO zinc spot price maybe will be $2 by october when zinc LME supplies become very stretched...
zoo
12th-May-2006, 07:55 AM
cbh will open the old Sth Mine..previously MMM in Broken Hill. Approx 6 weeks time things will start to happen, using the decline and going over areas that havent really been worked a lot before as well. Visco Sulicich will be named the man in charge, fair to say that Vince Gauci, former head of MIM has been somewhat of a mentor figure to Sulicich over the years. Core samples are apparently good and with todays zinc prices, its a no brainer. This has been confirmed by two sources now, so its a goer and not just speculation..yep, I hold cbh...but as always, do your own sums guys. Cheers.
YOUNG_TRADER
12th-May-2006, 09:16 AM
YT look at their website, there is a report from Hartleys valuing CBH at $2.29 on current spot prices..
Zinc and Copper are NOT at their highs IMO...
Nice to see zinc moving, was at 1.45-1.55 for a while, now smashed through 1.60... we know that when zinc runs, it can run (how quick was it from 89c to 1.40! the 2nd time around after the correction from 1.08 to 89c).... IMO zinc spot price maybe will be $2 by october when zinc LME supplies become very stretched...
CBH is one of my big holds in portfolio, about 1/5th, so any rise towards $1 will be good, but I think its got so much more, like the hartley's valuation shows, at current spots $2+ well Zinc is almost @ $4000 US/t!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
As with copper the higher Zinc goes, the more rapid it rises will be, unlike copper Zinc's fundamentals are much much better
zoo
12th-May-2006, 10:38 AM
sorry guys, I should have said Sulicich is rumoured to have been approached to run the show....
makeorbreak
16th-May-2006, 11:15 AM
I have owned this stock since just before it tumbled to 6 cents and I still own it. I am now back in the black and considering throwing an additional $50K on it.
The drop in zinc prices over the past week has got me **** scared. BUt this stock is so undervalued I just hope things are going to get brighter. - SOON!
zoo
16th-May-2006, 02:11 PM
If your holding for longer term, imho you will be on a stock that will run very well. Lots in the pipeline, yes it has run hard from 20 odd cents. Use this weeks trading action as a learning tool, see how cbh handles it along with other similar coys.I sold but will look for lower entry levels.
YOUNG_TRADER
17th-May-2006, 09:39 PM
$30m funding from Zinc offtake to fund Brokenhill and Sulphur Springs you say?
$1.80 by October this year you say YT?
The next PEM/KZL/TZN type run up you say?
Whos listening
michael_selway
17th-May-2006, 10:48 PM
$30m funding from Zinc offtake to fund Brokenhill and Sulphur Springs you say?
$1.80 by October this year you say YT?
The next PEM/KZL/TZN type run up you say?
Whos listening
really $1.80 in 5 months how come?
also u left out ZFX in that list above ;)
In the recent annoucement does it benefit ZFX in a way? or is it already been accounted for?
thx
MS
kr1zh
18th-May-2006, 04:36 PM
CBH Resources was down 2.5¢ to 48¢ and Triako Resources was up 35¢ to $1.72. Base metal miner CBH has made an off-market takeover offer for exploration and investment company Triako.
quote from AFR.com
kgee
18th-May-2006, 06:47 PM
adding gold to their resources...just more meat in the sandwich!!! :)
boults_4545
22nd-May-2006, 03:06 PM
Down nearly 16% so far today, Any thoughts on where the bottom is? Is this likely to have anything to do with the take over?
makeorbreak
22nd-May-2006, 03:59 PM
I reckon it has something to do with the falling zinc Price.
hoping for turnaround soon
Warren Buffet II
22nd-May-2006, 04:37 PM
Another shock session for this stock, 15% down and will keep going down. Copper and Zinc down again today 3% to 4%.
I understand that some people prefer to invest in the very long term (Those are the ones that are not actively interested in this kind of forums as they do not care for the price and they are based on fundamentals) but there are people that invest in the short term and post everyday any change of the price (If they didn't have an stop price to avoid loses, they are in big trouble now). It is very likely this share will drop another 10 to 20% soon (tomorrow maybe up 4% next day maybe down 15%)
Stay tune for more entertainment.
WBII
nizar
22nd-May-2006, 05:04 PM
I personally think the take-over was badly timed
If endevour catastrophe didnt happened, and they were flood with cash, then yeh, why not...
But all this take-over will do is eat into their cash and make them move NEGATIVE eps for this year.. TKR still a long, long way away from production
Just my thoughts... :2twocents
michael_selway
22nd-May-2006, 05:25 PM
Another shock session for this stock, 15% down and will keep going down. Copper and Zinc down again today 3% to 4%.
I understand that some people prefer to invest in the very long term (Those are the ones that are not actively interested in this kind of forums as they do not care for the price and they are based on fundamentals) but there are people that invest in the short term and post everyday any change of the price (If they didn't have an stop price to avoid loses, they are in big trouble now). It is very likely this share will drop another 10 to 20% soon (tomorrow maybe up 4% next day maybe down 15%)
Stay tune for more entertainment.
WBII
Yeah the thing is theres too many people on margin lending, bascially gambling everything to become rich, thus for them the need to quickly get out otherwise they will be in deep trouble. but these should only be a limited few
thx
MS
zoo
23rd-May-2006, 07:43 AM
Just be patient guys, we all have been looking at recent share price strength as if it was the norm, well its not. CBH bolted from 20c area and will need to rebase around the high 20s imho. Great learning curve and brings everyone back to reality....the cheaper it gets the better it gets, so look on corrections as a good thing.....patience and trusting your investment style is the key. Cheers...30c would be awesome longtermer.
brerwallabi
23rd-May-2006, 09:26 PM
CBH was around the high 20's many many moons ago before the mine collapse and when zinc was $0.65 a lb. At full production and the current supply/demand situation taken into account it must rank a $1.00 plus so anything picked up at these current prices will see your money doubled at least in my opinion, so buy now or try to get in lower I am not sure. Well charts are out the window right now but I believe I have worked out some buys to hold onto to make the most of the coming resource recovery and CBH is one I will be holding.
And to think I sold CBH.
michael_selway
24th-May-2006, 08:17 PM
another annoucement from CBH, so many in recent weeks
CBH Resources Limited has reached an agreement in principle which subject successful negotiation of detailed joint venture arrangements and final CBH Board approval will see the company become a joint venture partner with WRF Securities Ltd in the Constance Range Iron Ore Project.
It is proposed that, CBH will earn an initial 30% interest in the joint venture by paying $1 million in CBH shares plus $200,000 in cash and by completing the project prefeasibility study over a period of two years at an expected cost of $2 million.
The cash would be paid on the signing of a joint venture agreement, with the shares to be issued once CBH is registered on the title of the exploration licence relating to the Project.
In addition, CBH may elect to earn an additional 20% equity in the joint venture by completing a bankable feasibility study. The anticipated budget for this study has been estimated at $5 million.
The Project is located approximately 40km from the world-class Century Zinc mine in far north Queensland. The Project area was extensively explored by BHP between 1956 and 1963, with work completed including over 200 drill holes, the sinking of two exploration shafts, underground mining trials and bulk sample extraction for beneficiation test work.
BHP identified significant sedimentary hematite mineralisation at Mt Constance and reported a pre-JORC resource of 245 million tonnes grading 51.3% iron (Fe) and 9.4% silica (SiO2) for one of three deposits outlined (This resource does not comply with current ASX reporting rules for ore reserves and resources, as a proportion of the drill core is not available and survey data requires clarification). The iron horizons range from 2 to 8 metres in thickness as gently dipping beds and are present over a strike length of more than 30 kilometres within the WRF exploration licence.
The Constance Range iron deposits have the characteristics to support a large scale pellet plant for production of direct feed to both blast furnace steel plants and DRI (direct reduction iron) plants. The largest current producer in the pellet market is CVRD of Brazil which also bases its pellet production on hematitic ore that are similar in grade to the Constance Range deposits. The pellet market is growing in importance in the world iron ore trade.
thx
MS
kgee
25th-May-2006, 12:30 AM
I listened to the directors speech on boardroom radio earlier this month...He was asked how they would go about not becoming a takeover target...his reply "growth"
well they're growing and diversifying
For those interested Fat Prophets remain bullish on commodites ,Nickel,Iron and zinc in particular (fundamentals) and even went as far to say they see gold hitting a $1000 before the end of the year
michael_selway
28th-May-2006, 06:20 PM
Actually it is because of the Zinc Price about 5% increase on LME overnight, thus nearly most of the below rose alot today
Its rise has been meteoric but EARNINGS HAVE BEEN RISING FASTER STILL!
samsterchan
30th-May-2006, 01:01 AM
CBH is looking good .....
Interesting article attached
http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=5164
This company is going places with the takeover of Triako Resources, its multi-faceted mining resources, latest one of which is iron ore.
What are the chances of this company being a takeover target itself with Endeavor, Sulphur Springs to name a few.
All it needs now is to find uranium !
YOUNG_TRADER
1st-June-2006, 08:17 PM
A Pilbara native title claim group has completed the signing of three mining agreements in one day, a landmark achievement in native title negotiations.
The Njamal native title group reached agreements with CBH Resources Ltd, Consolidated Minerals Ltd and individual miner, Barry Kayes. Njamal were represented in all three agreements by the Pilbara Native Title Service (PNTS), part of the Yamatji Marlpa Barna Baba Maaja Aboriginal Corporation (YMBBMAC).
Njamal people representative and deputy chairperson of the PNTS Steering Committee Doris Eaton said that its working group had been negotiating with mining companies for many years and had reached many agreements.
The CBH-Njamal agreement concerns the Sulphur Springs project, an open-cut copper and zinc mine and processing plant located 160km southeast of Port Hedland and inside Njamal country.
The agreement has a range of provisions including a financial settlement, employment and training initiatives and undertakings in the areas of heritage and environmental protection.
Just wait for the re-rating!
kgee
1st-June-2006, 10:33 PM
lots of news coming out from these guys lately...I hope they can get sulphur springs operational before 08 and that metal prices haven't crashed...a one year payback at current prices almost sounds too good to be true :o
kgee
22nd-June-2006, 02:11 PM
Sinosteel spreads wings
Ben Sharples
Wednesday, June 21, 2006
CHINA'S largest importer of iron ore, Sinosteel, is spreading its wings into Australia's base metals sector and is seeking investment or off-take opportunities to supply concentrate to smelters in China, with CBH Resources and Jubilee Mines touted as potential partners.
Sinosteel Australia managing director Cui Xiaofei
Sinosteel Australia managing director Xiaofei Cui told MiningNews.net the company was in discussions with four "end of users" and had signed exclusive agreements with two copper and zinc smelters to supply concentrate from Australian sources.
The two smelters have a combined total annual output of 160,000 tonnes of copper metal and 300,000t of zinc metal.
Cui said the two smelters currently procure their raw materials mainly from the spot market but with capacity expansions being planned, they were aiming to secure a stable supply of concentrate feedstock.
On the supply front, Cui said the company was in discussions with zinc producer CBH Resources in regards to securing zinc and copper concentrate.
"CBH Resources are preparing an information memorandum, once that is ready we'll talk a deal with them," he said.
However, CBH managing director Bob Besley told MNn the company was in preliminary discussions with a whole range of people but nothing was firm at this stage.
Besley said any possible off-take agreements would involve the Sulphur Springs copper-zinc-silver development in Western Australia (currently the focus of feasibility studies) because all of the production out of its mainstay Endeavour mine in New South Wales was "pretty well tied up".
Sulphur Springs is being planned as a 1.25 million tonne per annum mining and processing operation producing a 75,000tpa zinc concentrate (grading 53% zinc) and a 65,000tpa copper concentrate (grading 25% copper).
On the nickel front, Cui said the company was in early discussions in regards to supplying Anshan Iron & Steel, China's second-largest stainless steel producer, with nickel concentrate from Australian sources.
Cui said he had met with Jubilee Mines executive chairman Kerry Harmanis two weeks ago but said "it is very initial stages".
Sinosteel has been busy on the WA iron ore front, signing memorandums of understanding with Jupiter Mines and Cape Lambert Iron Ore earlier this year, and forming a JV with iron ore producer Midwest last October.
YOUNG_TRADER
22nd-June-2006, 02:57 PM
Read that a few days ago, what suprises me is how rapidly Sino Steel is expanding out of main stay Iron Ore Sector, to the broader base metals market, is China that desperate for base metals?
Date: 22/6/2006
Author: John Wasiliev
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 27
Pairs trading is a useful technique for investors in contracts for difference (CFDs) when the sharemarket is volatile. Man Financial's Richard Avery-Wright says it works because it is based on the relationship between two stocks rather than market trends. It can be applied where there is an historical pattern: one share outstrips another, then the other share catches up. The idea is to take a long position in the stock that catches up and short sell the other. In May 2006, Avery-Wright says Zinifex and BHP Billiton provided a "classic" example of this type of behaviour
thx
MS
kgee
25th-June-2006, 04:13 PM
Hey Michael do you know what figures theyr'e using for price of zinc???
kennas
28th-June-2006, 12:40 PM
Looks like CBH ducking for it's next support level at around .28/.30c.
Will be good to get on board at this price I reckon. Looks like it has some great projects.
YOUNG_TRADER
11th-July-2006, 10:54 AM
All CBH holders who were unfortunate enough to get caught with their pants down (the recent correction) do not fret,
As predicted Zinc stock piles have been decreasing at what is a near linear alarming rate, as a result the Zinc Spot price has been moving up strongly, well above the $1.50 mark to around $1.55 - $1.60
This company is so undervalued on its fundamentals its not even funny,
With well over 15 years mine life at Endeavour with the recent Trikao acquisition increasing that to probably 20+ years, as well as BFS due for Sulphur Springs and development of the Broken Hill CML7 'Rasp Mine' this company has big things set,
06/07 Will be the cash generation year, Analysts including Patersons, Hartleys and even Commsec place CBH to earn 14cps in 07 and 25cps in 08 which puts it currently on less than 3x PER of 07 and 1.5x PER of 08
In 2-3 years this will be the next OXR!!!!!
porkpie324
11th-July-2006, 11:01 AM
Young trader, i certainly hope your right, i managed to sell out of oxr close to its top (pure luck), since then have been accumalating cbh,porkpie
YOUNG_TRADER
11th-July-2006, 11:13 AM
Keep the faith my friend,
Also CBH holds 5.8% of PDZ, funny how they didn't mention that in thier latest presentation, Once PDZ's Prarie Downs project gets large enough what do you think CBH will do? Gobble Gobble Gobble
This company is very focused on Long Term Growth,
Currently it produces Zinc, Silver, Lead (Gold soon with TKR acquisition)
Sulphur Springs will add Copper,
And Constance JV adds Iron Ore,
As you can see it wants to become a diversified player!
greentea5
11th-July-2006, 01:46 PM
Hi guys,
I am sort of new to trading anyway. i manage to be lucky to dip some of my saving into the resources sector last year during the correction. :)
Where do you guys get all these news anyway? I dont seem to know where to read about these news....then again I bought some $3k worth of CBH (probably not a lot to u guys) not long ago....
I was thinkin, (properly wrong impression) with company of this size like CBH, would not it be an attractive target for other big player to takeover?
Like to heard some thoughts.
:p:
Cheers.
YOUNG_TRADER
12th-July-2006, 10:47 AM
Now would you look at that, an increase in reserves at its Broken Hill CML7 'Rasp Mine' gee wiz who would have thought and the stock begins to rise!
Now just wait for the markets reaction when Sulphur Springs BFS is released!!!!!!!! Copper + Zinc should net huge returns, wait and see
YOUNG_TRADER
17th-July-2006, 02:39 PM
I didn't realise that Sulphur Springs was going to be an open pit operation,
Thats excellent, as if they so wish they can use a higher milling/output rate, ie currently they intend to use a 1.25Mt p.a. mill, but there is nothing stopping them from using a 2Mtp.a mill and so on as unlike underground operations, open cut are muc more simple,
Anyway 10Mt @ 3.5% Zn + 1.4% Cu
At a mining rate of 1.25 Mt p.a. = 43,750 t's Zn + 17,500 t's p.a. Cu
Now this Qtrly will be very important in showing how far recovery at Endeavour has come along, hopefully will be back above 250kt of Ore for the Qtr,
Once Endeavour gets back to its 1M t p.a. - 1.4 Mt p.a. operation = 87,000t's - 120,000t's Zinc p.a.
michael_selway
17th-July-2006, 06:39 PM
I didn't realise that Sulphur Springs was going to be an open pit operation,
Thats excellent, as if they so wish they can use a higher milling/output rate, ie currently they intend to use a 1.25Mt p.a. mill, but there is nothing stopping them from using a 2Mtp.a mill and so on as unlike underground operations, open cut are muc more simple,
Anyway 10Mt @ 3.5% Zn + 1.4% Cu
At a mining rate of 1.25 Mt p.a. = 43,750 t's Zn + 17,500 t's p.a. Cu
Now this Qtrly will be very important in showing how far recovery at Endeavour has come along, hopefully will be back above 250kt of Ore for the Qtr,
Once Endeavour gets back to its 1M t p.a. - 1.4 Mt p.a. operation = 87,000t's - 120,000t's Zinc p.a.
yep once their endeavor is on track things will fly for them
thx
MS
rwkni1
25th-July-2006, 01:33 PM
I hear now that Endeavour production will not be back at 100% until Late September early October because of the current tight input market. There has been no official guidance from the company, has anyone heard anything to the contrary??
YOUNG_TRADER
25th-July-2006, 02:18 PM
sure why you thought that,
CBH has always given guidance that, March Qtr = 30%, June Qtr = 60% Sep Qtr = 100%
At 60% I'm expecting 15kt's of Zinc for this past qtr
KEY QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS
Endeavor Zinc, Lead, Silver Operations
• Mine production build-up on schedule with mine output for the quarter at 30% of normal
production.
• Substantial mine development and backfill in progress.
• Major plant and equipment upgrades and new equipment installed.
• Operations on track for 60% of normal production in June 2006 quarter and full production in
September 2006 quarter.
• A $2million surface drilling programme commenced to test mineralisation at depth.
rwkni1
25th-July-2006, 03:33 PM
Ahh OK, maybe i misinterpreted the info i was given - but in order to acheive 100% production for the September quarter, the mine would have to be running at full production now. I guess i would have expected an announcement from the company signalling that it was back to normal after such a long lay-off - i'm sure that would have given the share price a bit of a kick along.
snapper_man
25th-July-2006, 05:10 PM
Would've thought that CBH would need to make an announcement and a profit downgrade if they were not on track. Not sure if they meant full prod by 3rd qtr or for 3rd qtr. Need to check it out.
Picked up some CBH last week at .355. Seems like a pretty good long term punt to me.
YOUNG_TRADER
25th-July-2006, 11:37 PM
No wait, you guys maybe right, re-read my own info in post,
Operations on track for 60% of normal production in June 2006 quarter and full production in
September 2006 quarter
Full production in Sept Qte = Full production from 1st July to 30th Sept,
My mistake, sorry :o
michael_selway
26th-July-2006, 12:14 AM
No wait, you guys maybe right, re-read my own info in post,
Operations on track for 60% of normal production in June 2006 quarter and full production in
September 2006 quarter
Full production in Sept Qte = Full production from 1st July to 30th Sept,
My mistake, sorry :o
Once CBH annouces/confirms that, CBH should jump
thx
MS
brerwallabi
27th-July-2006, 12:28 AM
Once CBH annouces/confirms that, CBH should jump
thx
MS
Oh boy and I thought I used to ramp CBH when it was 17cps, keep doing it son I still hold some.
michael_selway
1st-August-2006, 08:45 AM
Oh boy and I thought I used to ramp CBH when it was 17cps, keep doing it son I still hold some.
Date: 31/7/2006
Author: Verity Edwards
Source: The Australian --- Page: 27
CBH Resources will work a discarded zinc mine in New South Wales. The company will spend up to $A50 million to reopen the Rasp mine in the centre of Broken Hill. The zinc is low-grade and was too costly to extract in the past. However, the high price of zinc and more cost-effective mining techniques have made the mine viable. A $A15 million exploration project is nearly complete. Mining will begin in 2008 and the mine will employ up to 100 people
thx
MS
noirua
4th-August-2006, 11:37 AM
CBH are being held back over the recent dragged out bid for Triako Resources that they may have thought was cut-and-dried.
A bit of life, some large buy orders, a few large sell orders,
Has it nearly shaken out all of the weak hands? It certainly spent alot of time consolidating around the 36/38c level
kennas
18th-August-2006, 11:04 AM
Done quite a bit of consolidating. Pretty steady rise after the Apr/May extreme volitility.
Looks like it's could be on the way up now. Recovered from the big fall after that sloping H&S pattern. Interesting that the neckline of that is close to what would be the next resistance at $0.41/42.
Might be looking at a breakout through there on to $0.45 +
Could break down though too! :) Need to watch it.....
But with the fundamentals looking good and the TKR deal almost done, perhaps that will be all it needs.
Kipp
22nd-August-2006, 06:56 PM
Done quite a bit of consolidating. Pretty steady rise after the Apr/May extreme volitility.
Looks like it's could be on the way up now. Recovered from the big fall after that sloping H&S pattern. Interesting that the neckline of that is close to what would be the next resistance at $0.41/42.
Might be looking at a breakout through there on to $0.45 +
Could break down though too! :) Need to watch it.....
But with the fundamentals looking good and the TKR deal almost done, perhaps that will be all it needs.
Back to 38 today... is this a bearish sign that it did not breakout when it hit the apex of the support/resistence apex?
On the other hand- ZFX, JML, KZL all having a pretty good time of it. So surely CBH is due for a jump?
nizar
22nd-August-2006, 07:00 PM
Back to 38 today... is this a bearish sign that it did not breakout when it hit the apex of the support/resistence apex?
On the other hand- ZFX, JML, KZL all having a pretty good time of it. So surely CBH is due for a jump?
CBH has been due for a jump for a very very long time
Id rather pay low-mid 40s for this when i know for sure it has broken out; charts look good though; volumes increasing but i really didnt like mondays dump on 3million volume close on the low
kennas
22nd-August-2006, 11:18 PM
It's still consolidating IMO. Not broken up or down yet. Still watching very closely, I reckon this will be next in line.
michael_selway
23rd-August-2006, 12:39 AM
It's still consolidating IMO. Not broken up or down yet. Still watching very closely, I reckon this will be next in line.
yeah if it stays down while ZFX, PEM, KZL, TZN are goign up, CBH will becoem a takeover target
thx
MS
rwkni1
23rd-August-2006, 08:45 AM
Unfortunately i dont think anyone can touch CBH given it is 25% owned by Toho Zinc. Either way - once Triako goes through and full production at Endeavour is announced its all blue sky - barring a sharp fall in zinc prices.
kennas
23rd-August-2006, 10:06 AM
Currently sitting just under $0.40 resistance, up a little on good eary volume. Looks like it could be going to go for a run. Perhaps. :)
mrWoodo
23rd-August-2006, 01:07 PM
newbie lurker here :)
Trading halt on, fingers crossed !
Woodo
tasmanian
23rd-August-2006, 02:05 PM
trading halt?????where did u see that
nizar
23rd-August-2006, 03:23 PM
OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT ALERT........ :D
Kipp
23rd-August-2006, 03:24 PM
trading halt?????where did u see that
Yeajh I missed it too... no annct today fo CBH except the takeover news...
kennas
23rd-August-2006, 03:29 PM
OUTSTANDING BREAKOUT ALERT........ :D
Not 'outstanding' yet but Looking very positive on good volume.
I'm in for a few at $0.395.
mrWoodo
23rd-August-2006, 03:31 PM
trading halt?????where did u see that
Yeah it was only for 10 min or so, followed by news release re. extension offer (http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcementSearch.do?method=searchByCode&releasedDuringCode=W&issuerCode=CBH) TKR.
Only picked it up as I was selling at the exact moment thru comsec
Woodo
nizar
23rd-August-2006, 03:38 PM
Not 'outstanding' yet but Looking very positive on good volume.
I'm in for a few at $0.395.
look at the volume brother
the charts says everytime this breaks through 5mil on an up day it rallies... and now the volume is closer to 10mil
and the volumes have been picking up lately, and that big triangle u posted its juz a matter of which way it will break... i think its clear the direction is up...
and plus i juz saw a 300k and a 500k order both go through... :D
if 40.5c is good enough for them its good enough for me, so yes im officially in at 40.5c..
kennas
23rd-August-2006, 03:53 PM
Still has to hold above $0.40 for more than a few trades, but looking ok. Don't want to jump the gun here. If it's confirmed I'll be in for a few more but I'm ready to jump as well. Still not conviced with the short term direction of the market doodes.
kennas
23rd-August-2006, 04:04 PM
Well, well, @ .41. Could be ready to scoot. Happy I got in at .395 at this stage. Still, potential for bad metal market over night and a retreat...Hopefully, these good conditions continue.
dubiousinfo
23rd-August-2006, 04:23 PM
I jumped in on the last rally in July at .40 only to see it fall back to mid 30's.
Hope it can stay up this time.
It would be good to get an update on the progress of returning endeavour to 100% production.
Rafa
23rd-August-2006, 04:58 PM
after getting burnt at 50cents couple of months ago...
back in now at 40c...
and on a nice, more steady uptrend line... (thanks for the charts kennas)
looks like the takeover is close to completion too... so thats good.
Kipp
24th-August-2006, 10:50 AM
Breakout seems to have halted- maybe because it's a dark day on the market (All Ords Down 40). Vol still very solid but plenty of Sell Depth.
Kennas- what do you reckon?
kennas
24th-August-2006, 11:05 AM
Kipp, Holding ok above $0.40. $0.42 providing some resistance. Noticed the selling coming in there.
Would have to break down through about $0.36 for a real reversal. Looks like there's good support at $0.35.
Still, early days, can't go up every minute of the day.....Still looking positive to me.
Good long term stock if you believe the Chindiapanaiwanaporesia story still IMO.
YOUNG_TRADER
24th-August-2006, 11:54 AM
Kennas 'Please Explain' Chindiapanaiwanaporesia
I see China-India-Japan-Taiwan- Singapore- Asia, is that right?
40c-46c will be heavy level to get over
YOUNG_TRADER
24th-August-2006, 11:56 AM
Also K, can you redraw your chart with the upper triangle line starting at the peak price (60c or so),
Interested to see how that wedge looks,
Thanks
kennas
24th-August-2006, 11:57 AM
he he, YT - Indonesia. 200m people will one day need more than a horse and cart and a bag of rice.
YOUNG_TRADER
24th-August-2006, 12:05 PM
lol what more could they need than a horse & cart and a bag of rice?
Oh right, hookers and alchol :D,
On a serious note, I see the bottom line of the triangle going all the way back to the Nov 05 low of 16c(so like an ascending support line which would make sense cause as time marches on CBH's improves its production levels etc which increaes its support), but can't really make heads or tails of the upper resistance, whether its a lid at 40c (looks likely) or some sort of descending line (but from which point?)
kennas
24th-August-2006, 04:11 PM
Also K, can you redraw your chart with the upper triangle line starting at the peak price (60c or so),
Interested to see how that wedge looks,
Thanks
YT, Can't really do a triangle from there. It doesn't link up with any other resistance points on the way down.
Came off with everything else today but still above the triangle after breaking through it. Still reckon 'break down' is through around $0.36/7 ish. Room to move.
As I said earlier, I'm short terming atm, so if it starts to break down, I'm jumping.
Also, yes, agree there will resistance at $0.45.
dj_420
24th-August-2006, 04:18 PM
Hey guys found this on sharescene
what you think kennas?
China's Zinc Demand to Increase 56% by 2010, Antaike Forecasts
By Chia-Peck Wong
Aug. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The demand for zinc in China, the world's biggest consumer of the metal, may rise 56 percent by 2010, Beijing Antaike Information Development Co. has forecast.
The country may need 4.8 million metric tons of zinc by the end of the decade, from 3.08 million tons in 2005, as it requires more of the metal to coat steel to prevent corrosion, Feng Juncong, a senior analyst at Antaike, a research agency that advises the government, said yesterday at a conference.
``As China's construction and transportation sectors grow, consumption has entered its peak growth rate,'' she said in a presentation in Inner Mongolia, a region in western China.
Zinc prices in London have surged 75 percent this year and reached a record $4,000 a ton in May on expectations China's expanding economy will require more metals, while smelter output in China has been stymied by a lack of mined material.
``China will definitely need to rely on imports to fulfill its annual needs'' in the next few years, said Feng, who has been tracking the industry for 12 years and correctly forecast China would become a net importer of refined zinc in 2004.
The domestic supply of mined zinc is likely to lag behind demand by more than 10 percent this year, pushing up concentrate prices, she said. She didn't provide an estimate of China's zinc production in 2010, saying that the country is likely to remain a net importer till then.
This year, China's net imports of zinc products, including mined output, or so-called concentrates, are likely to be stable at 860,000 tons, little changed from last year, as higher internationally-traded prices led Chinese smelters to export more, she said.
Record Forecast
Zinc prices in London, which have fallen about 16 percent from their record, are likely post a new peak in the fourth quarter as stockpiles continue to dwindle, Feng said.
``The fundamental demand and supply factors are still good,'' she said, without forecasting how high prices may rise.
Zinc stockpiles at warehouses monitored by the London Metal Exchange have plunged 55 percent this year to 179,175 tons as of yesterday, the lowest since early 1992.
China's lead consumption may surge 43 percent to 2.3 million tons in 2010 as demand from lead-acid battery makers soars 65 percent to 1.79 million tons, Feng said.
The forecast is ``definitely conservative as over the past 10 years, apparent consumption in China has grown 20 percent every year,'' she said.
Industry consultants including Michael Komesaroff said that developing Inner Mongolia's lead and zinc resources may help China reduce its dependence on imports.
`Own Resources'
``China will prefer to develop its own resources rather than buying from overseas,'' Komesaroff, managing director of Urandaline Investments Pty., said by phone from the northeastern Australian state of Queensland on Aug. 21.
Inner Mongolia is ``highly prospective'' in terms of lead and zinc, he said.
Of the 1.82 million tons of zinc concentrate produced in China last year, 15 percent came from the autonomous region of Inner Mongolia, making it China's third-biggest producer after Yunnan and Gansu, Feng said.
The region ranked as China's top producer of mined lead last year, accounting for 15 percent of total output of 630,000 tons, she said.
There are other advantages exploring for lead and zinc in Inner Mongolia, which possesses China's second-biggest resources of both metals, as many deposits also contain other metals such as silver, she said.
Inner Mongolia's government plans to spend 2 billion yuan ($251 million) in the next five years to explore for mines, Zheng Fanshen, vice director and general engineer of the region's prospecting and exploitation bureau, told reporters at the conference yesterday. Coal was the first priority, and base metals such as copper, lead and zinc the second, Zheng said.
To contact the reporter for this story: Chia-Peck Wong in Inner Mongolia at cpwong@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 23, 2006 21:35 EDT
michael_selway
24th-August-2006, 08:03 PM
lol what more could they need than a horse & cart and a bag of rice?
Oh right, hookers and alchol :D,
Not necessarily in that order i might add ;)
Alos do u knwo when they annouce full year result?
thx
MS
kennas
28th-August-2006, 04:34 PM
Interesting to see a 2m parcel go through late this afternoon bringing in some late volume. Should find a good start tomorrow I reckon. $0.40 still the hurdle.
nizar
28th-August-2006, 04:42 PM
In a word - disappointed
(that there was no follow up to that 10.5m day - but i guess the positives is that most of them are still holding)
Rafa
28th-August-2006, 05:34 PM
i had one decisions to make...
CBH or JMS...
Picked CBH... and JML is up 3 cents since then...! CBH down 1cent!
oh well...
michael_selway
28th-August-2006, 07:49 PM
i had one decisions to make...
CBH or JMS...
Picked CBH... and JML is up 3 cents since then...! CBH down 1cent!
oh well...
CBH is on the move but its going to be an effort to plough through the sellers today. If it breaks .42 it may breakout. Fingers crossed.
michael_selway
29th-August-2006, 07:24 PM
CBH is on the move but its going to be an effort to plough through the sellers today. If it breaks .42 it may breakout. Fingers crossed.
Yeah Hopefully
Treasure hunt FEATURE
Although resource stocks are all the rage right now, investors are wary about exploration minnows. Which is exactly what makes them such a good catch, Tim Treadgold explains.
TD The resource boom is moving on. While over the past few years just about every mining stock has risen in harmony with commodity prices, most of the easy gains are gone. The low-hanging fruit has been picked.
Today, you can sum up in a single word the future driver for fast profits from resource stocks: discovery.
A whiff of what investors want came when CuDeco (CDU) startled the market recently with its Rocklands copper discovery in north-west Queensland. Despite being forced to backtrack with some of its claims, the fact remains that Rocklands is a significant discovery and CuDeco, which traded as Australian Mining Investments until July 20, has risen 10-fold from about 30¢ at the end of May to about $3. Such a gain was referred to as a "10-bagger" by the dinkum speculators of bygone booms, when the twin principles of exploration and discovery were well understood.
"People don't understand the exploration process, which is all about taking grassroots exploration through mineral exploration, through resource definition, through feasibility studies and on to production," Lewis Johnson, a director of Bell Asset Management and private client adviser with the stockbroking firm Bell Potter, says.
He adds that not even the experts you may pay to help invest your money have a firm grasp on the exploration process "because many of them have never even seen a mine".
Johnson's sobering assessment of why exploration is a dirty word in the investment community can be seen two ways. Either it's a warning to keep clear, or it's a marvellous opportunity to get ahead of the game - a classic case of the one-eyed man ruling in the kingdom of the blind.
It could well be the latter. With just about everybody investing by the index ¿ in other words, in large, established resource stocks ¿ many of the small explorers have been neglected.
"The exploration sector is overdue for a revival," Rob Brierley, head of institutional broking at Hartleys, a Perth-based broking house, says. "There are issues holding back field work, such as continued problems with land access, and simply getting enough opportunity because so much prospective land is locked inside the major mining houses.
"Having said that, there are excellent examples of discovery driving some of the smaller mining stocks. Independence Group (IGO) with its Tropicana [gold] strike east of Kalgoorlie is one, and perhaps you really ought to be looking at Jubilee Mines (JBM) as a discovery story as much as a nickel producer, because it continues to report excellent new finds."
The wood from the trees
Ian Christie, an analyst with Perth-based Argonaut Securities, says the resources boom has made it hard for a junior explorer to "stand out from the crowd". He says that will change, especially among the smaller Australian-listed oil and gas stocks, which have made the US their home.
"At the end of 2003, there were six [Australian] companies with a focus on the US," he says. "When I last counted there were more than 20 purely focused on the US, and that's omitting companies with an interest here and over there."
But only a handful of analysts follow the exploration sector and there's a serious lack of coverage by big brokers. As Bruce Maluish, managing director of the emerging zircon producer Matilda Minerals (MAL) says, intense activity in the iron ore and uranium sectors has drowned out good news from elsewhere among the explorers.
"It is a bit frustrating, but the view seems to be that iron ore and uranium are the only games in town," Maluish says. "The problem with that is that most of them are really picking over discoveries made as far back as the 1960s, so we're not going to see much original happen with them."
David Harley, chief executive of the titanium minerals explorer, Gunson Resources (GUN), and a former president of the Association of Mining and Exploration Companies, agrees with Maluish. "There is a fundamental problem that investors have drifted away from the sector," Harley says.
"Not enough people understand the process we go through, the risks involved and the potential rewards, which can be substantial."
Getting in early
Johnson says anyone contemplating adding exploration stocks to their portfolio should diversify, aiming for a spread of risk across commodities and locations. Of course, as these stocks are speculative, you should also allocate only a small percentage of your total assets to them.
To be successful, an investor in exploration stocks must first do homework, understand the business as well as its terminology and the role of multiple arms of science, and be prepared to sift the difficult and dodgy from real opportunities to get in on the ground floor of what could be a change in sentiment towards exploration over the next 12 months.
To help with this filtering process, AFR Smart Investor has picked its own top five exploration stocks and top five small resource stocks that are already in production.
You never know, one of these could be the next CuDeco, or Salinas (SAE; up from a low of 21¢ to a 12-month high of 89¢), Rox (RXL; 9¢ to 65¢), Independence ($1.38 to $3.61), or Breakaway (BRW; 14¢ to 48¢).
BEST EXPLORERS
Independence Group
Combining the best of both worlds, Independence (IGO) is using strong cash flow from a nickel project to fund exploration. Its top target is a gold play called Tropicana located 250 kilometres east of Kalgoorlie, in a poorly explored region with potential.
Independence has another factor that makes it attractive: quality management. The team that floated the company in early 2002 is led by former WMC staff who understand the disciplines involved.
Cash, thanks to the price of nickel, is flowing into Independence at a rate of about $30 million a year, largely from the Long/Victor nickel mine that was acquired in a tender process six months after Independence floated.
Exploration around the old mine has expanded nickel reserves, ensuring that the company can continue funding projects that are aimed at converting Independence from a one-mine company into a business with multiple assets.
Breakaway Resources
Largely ignored by investors for years, Breakaway (BRW) burst onto the scene earlier this year when it was chosen as the vehicle for a management buy-out of the exploration division of a big producer. The result is the creation of a business with some of the best prospects for discovery in Australia.
The key to Breakaway is a combination of management and "drill-ready" exploration projects. Both of these have come from the Canadian-based LionOre Mining International, which is switching from mining to mineral processing and technology development.
The rebirth of Breakaway has seen a corporate makeover and the raising of $13.5 million in fresh capital. The capital complements cash from royalties generated by a copper project in Queensland.
Armed with cash, skilled management and a vast tenement package, Breakaway is expected to generate a news flow to boost its profile as a promising explorer.
Rox Resources
Floated just two years ago, Rox (RXL) has spent most of its life in the sin bin with a share price of about half the 20¢ paid by foundation investors.
This saw it face the classic dilemma of all explorers ¿ either discover something or struggle to raise fresh capital.
But everything changed earlier this year when Rox announced the discovery of a potentially world-class zinc and lead deposit in Laos, in South-East Asia. Spectacular assays from drilling saw the company's share price soar from 9¢ to 65¢ in a matter of days, rewarding the few who stuck with the stock.
More work is required at the Pha Luang project but professional investors have spotted the potential, chipping in another $6 million to fund more drilling in a country that once seemed remote and inhospitable, but which has gained credibility following the success enjoyed by copper and gold producer Oxiana (OXR) at its mine in Laos.
Minotaur Exploration
This company has turned exploration into a legitimate business. Five years ago, when trading as Minotaur Resources, the company discovered the Prominent Hill copper and gold ore body in South Australia, which initially attracted BHP Billiton (BHP) as a partner, but was later sold to Oxiana.
The process of discovery and sale was complex, and led to the dissolution of Minotaur Resources, and the birth of Minotaur Exploration (MEP), with roughly the same management and package of tenements. Minotaur has cemented its relationship with Oxiana, spun off a uranium exploration company, Toro Energy (TOE), and acquired stakes in other explorers, including Mithril Resources (MTH) and geothermal energy company Petratherm (PTR).
Minotaur could dispose of advanced exploration projects for cash or sell them to alliance partners such as Oxiana, which uses Minotaur as a project generation business....
thx
MS
michael_selway
29th-August-2006, 07:25 PM
...Salinas Energy
Largely unknown to local investors because it has chosen to do its oil and gas exploring in the US, Salinas (SAE) is an Australian business run by a management team with a record of discovery best seen through an earlier business called Voyager Energy.
An independent operator until late last year, Voyager was a partner in a series of oil discoveries in WA, eventually proving to be a tasty takeover morsel for Arc Energy (ARQ).
Rather than move to Arc, the Voyager team struck out with Salinas, and an oil and gas tenement package in California. Managing director John Begg says his aim for Salinas is to increase business to a market value of $500 million within three years, a target that implies strong production and a reserve of 20 million barrels of oil.
Begg's record at Voyager indicates that the target might be achievable. If not, he's shown himself willing to take a profit rather than hang around for production build-up.
BEST SMALL PRODUCERS
Perilya
limited
Mark Twain's comment about reports of his death being exaggerated also applies to the plum asset inside Perilya (PEM), the fabulous silver, lead and zinc mines of Broken Hill. Ignored by bigger companies as too old and difficult, Perilya has restored the mines and is starting to spin off fat profits.
At June 30, the once-struggling gold producer had $135 million in the bank, largely thanks to high zinc prices, and was producing a quarterly cash flow of more than $70 million.
The key to cash is the gap between a zinc production cost of US66¢ a pound and a zinc price of more than $US1.50 a pound.
More can be expected from Perilya as it expands production at the old mines and opens new ore bodies.
There is also potential for revival in the company's gold division where there is one mine, Daisy Milano in WA, being developed, and at least five other projects in the exploration phase.
Consolidated Minerals
Marked down severely after a fall in the price of manganese - Consolidated's (CSM) primary product - and an internal management brawl, there are positive signals from a company that is mapping out a future as a nickel producer.
Disillusioned investors are yet to reward Consolidated for its change of focus. However, with the price of nickel stuck sky high at more than $US25,000 a tonne, there is little doubt that Consolidated is a revival in the making.
Key assets, apart from the manganese cash cow in the Woodie Woodie mine, are the Beta Hunt and Alpha nickel mines in WA and a big tenement package that contains a large resource of nickel. Capping off the nickel strategy is the potential to create value from the acquisition of troubled nickel explorer Titan Resources (TIR). Trials with a new ore-sorting system could see Titan become a jewel in Consolidated's nickel-plated crown.
Aust. Worldwide Exploration
Overlooked in the 2005 stampede into petroleum stocks created by the oil price rise, Australian Worldwide (AWE; see page 90) is emerging as one of the best-placed companies in the thin ranks of the local mid-tier oil and gas sector.
Cash flow from a string of new projects has backed aggressive exploration, making AWE a stock to watch and a takeover target.
The company has three key assets in production: the Bassgas and Casino gas projects in Victoria and South Australia respectively, and the Cliff Head oil project in WA.
Cash on hand totals more than $227 million with the 2007 pre-tax and depreciation profit forecast at around $120 million. Apart from cash and production, the real kicker with AWE may be potential from its exploration of nine wells over the next year. Given historic success of 25 per cent, at least two wells may lead to future development opportunities.
Straits
Resources
Three years ago, when most investors were ignoring metals, Straits Resources (SRL) pocketed a handsome $90 million profit from the sale of the Nifty copper mine in WA to Indian group Aditya Birla.
Armed with the cash, Straits invested in expanded coal production from its Sebuku mine in Indonesia, gold from the Mt Muro mine, also in Indonesia, and copper from the Tritton mine in NSW. The result is a business developing a balanced portfolio of energy and mineral assets.
The outlook, which potentially includes the development of a gold and antimony mine at Hillgrove in NSW, is of a business that may soon have five operating mines, boosting a revenue base of about $500 million a year thanks to high coal, copper and gold prices. The market, which had treated Straits harshly after the Nifty sale, is slowly warming to the stock, more than doubling its share price over the past year.
Kagara Zinc limited
Operating in the remote far north Queensland, Kagara (KZL) has been one of the genuine surprise performers over the past year thanks to high zinc prices and the promise of increased copper and gold production.
The key to Kagara is a series of mines and exploration prospects along a richly mineralised sequence of rocks near Cairns.
The area has seen waves of development over the past 100 years and is dotted with historic mines. Kagara snapped up the lion's share of the best ground in the region after its 1999 float, a time when minerals were in the doldrums, and Kagara was the only mining float of that year; a classicfirst-mover advantage.
Today, Kagara is producing zinc and copper from various locations, and planning to become a substantial gold and silver producer. Next year, thanks to new mines, zinc output is forecast to reach 50,000 tonnes, and copper output should rise to 30,000 tonnes. Si
thx
MS
kennas
30th-August-2006, 10:44 AM
Seems to have broken that resistance around $0.40 now, on volume. Confirmed upward trend now, imo. To be proved wrong probably. :)
YOUNG_TRADER
30th-August-2006, 07:51 PM
Fat Prophets Buy Recommendation up to 46c (Will take it up to resistance level)
Volume has really picked up, watch for a break above 46c, it'll be a hard fight though
BOTTOM LINE
28/8:
EW Trend: Up
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Weak
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
LAYMANS ANALYSIS
28/8:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (2 mins 14 secs)
CBH is another Zinc related stock and is one that has been covered in the earlier days of these pages. I continue to like CBH and like its bigger brothers ZFX and KZL we are seeing some coiling action. Unlike those two, CBH is yet to break out with any conviction. An attempt was made last week but failed at $0.42. A move again through $0.42 would be deemed very bullish, especially if accompanied by high volume. Like many breakout scenario's, we would ideally like to see a close outside of the congestion area and high volume. A clean break with follow through would place the major highs at $0.59 on the table, if not more. The larger picture is very bullish but $0.42 is paramount to ongoing advances.
TECHNICAL DISCUSSION
28/8:
If prices penetrate and reverse, or penetrate on low volume, then defensive action should be swift. Failed breakouts are the scourge of traders, especially since such methods have become more popular over the last 10 to 15-years. The wave-4 low was a very bullish bar and we're now trying to move higher. The $0.42 is very important and must be broken before long positions are initiated. Ideally protective stops should be placed below $0.34, although $0.37 would be acceptable for those looking to be slightly more aggressive. Being a wave-4 I would expect a minimum move to the wave-3 highs set back in May but as we know from the performance of KZL and ZFX over the last week, we could easily start to think in bigger numbers.
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.
nizar
30th-August-2006, 09:25 PM
Thanks Nick
michael_selway
30th-August-2006, 10:45 PM
Thanks Nick
I 2nd that
Yep, ZFX, KZL, PEM, CBH all doing well now
thx
MS
2020hindsight
31st-August-2006, 12:31 AM
CBH is on the move but its going to be an effort to plough through the sellers today. If it breaks .42 it may breakout. Fingers crossed. Gee I hope youre right canuck- But I wish you'd be more specific in defining your terms - by breakout do you mean .46? .50? 1.00? Like you say, fingers crossed. ;)
nizar
31st-August-2006, 12:55 AM
Yep, ZFX, KZL, PEM, CBH all doing well now
Yeh but KZL the only one at all time highs... :D
canaussieuck
31st-August-2006, 01:14 AM
Gee I hope youre right canuck- But I wish you'd be more specific in defining your terms - by breakout do you mean .46? .50? 1.00? Like you say, fingers crossed. ;)
.425 was where i had my buy order (and a price alert at .42). If it cleared the sellers there it should move up to .46 (as mentioned by others) relatively easily. Lots of resisitance to come at .46 but volume lately would suggest that it could push through. Nick's analysis by the way, was the final straw for me to place the buy order (only as a subscriber to his newletter i got it a day earlier).
Cheers,
Freeballinginawetsuit
31st-August-2006, 01:15 AM
Yeh but KZL the only one at all time highs... :D
How was the rebound of KZL today!. 10% from AM dump to PM close SP. This stock is a winner long and short trading
sleeper88
31st-August-2006, 11:46 AM
Well since all zinc stocks are going up..anyone have any thoughts on TZN?
hypnotic
1st-September-2006, 08:21 AM
Well since all zinc stocks are going up..anyone have any thoughts on TZN?
Zinc stocks is deinfitely going well and probably still undervalued imo. The zinc stock in the LME has continually been on the decrease. Now that the market seems to have picked up again it'll be interesting to see what happens to the zinc stocks in the next few weeks.
Hm... i have been watching TZN it's dropped a lot since the run on the approval of the Angas Zinc project. I like the potential though :D
Hypnotic
These are merely my own thoughts.
Fab
1st-September-2006, 08:49 AM
Yep. I am also wondering what is going on with TZN. I bought at the peak at 1.70 and I am waiting for TZN to shoot up again. Hopefully like ZFX. :)
kennas
1st-September-2006, 11:13 AM
Fat Prophets Buy Recommendation up to 46c (Will take it up to resistance level)
Volume has really picked up, watch for a break above 46c, it'll be a hard fight though
Pushing $0.46, I'm much more confident that this is breaking up and the volume is great! Looks good to push through.
rwkni1
1st-September-2006, 11:19 AM
Yeah, it definately looks the goods, but whats the go with this takeover - it seems to be dragging on for a rediculous amount of time. Their latest update this morning showed they'd only increased their holding by about 1% to 71% over the past 8 days. At this rate this thing will go forever - but i think if it is resolved near term that could be a catalyst for another push up.
canaussieuck
1st-September-2006, 12:32 PM
I think CBH will struggle today, being Friday...profit taking before the weekend.
nizar
1st-September-2006, 12:38 PM
I think CBH will struggle today, being Friday...profit taking before the weekend.
I agree
This one needs to break 45c on volume and stay there; as this is the next resistance. Once that happens, i think it will get to 56-57c very quickly, ie. within a few days... :2twocents
IGO4IT
1st-September-2006, 01:41 PM
I agree
This one needs to break 45c on volume and stay there; as this is the next resistance. Once that happens, i think it will get to 56-57c very quickly, ie. within a few days... :2twocents
Nizar,
nothing goes up forever without a little retrace or a hold, we had 4 consecutive white candles & a little retrace is a must to continue a healthy uptrend. defenitely its looking healthy & I'm taking today as an advantage to top up a bit more.
cheers,
Freeballinginawetsuit
1st-September-2006, 01:49 PM
I agree
This one needs to break 45c on volume and stay there; as this is the next resistance. Once that happens, i think it will get to 56-57c very quickly, ie. within a few days... :2twocents
Really?, whats ur reasoning that it might not go sideways or south!.
nizar
1st-September-2006, 02:37 PM
Nizar,
nothing goes up forever without a little retrace or a hold, we had 4 consecutive white candles & a little retrace is a must to continue a healthy uptrend. defenitely its looking healthy & I'm taking today as an advantage to top up a bit more.
cheers,
IGO, dont treat this like EXT!!
These guys are earning big money and with zincers starting to fire up again (ZFX, KZL) and endeavour to full production in october, this will be firing. Alot of big chomps went through on that 10.5m day, i saw 2 300ks and 1 500ks
porkpie324
1st-September-2006, 02:57 PM
i agree, CBH has been a trader for me for over 3 years, bought first on a david haselhurst recomendation (one of my best sources for spec tips). not anymore, have been accumilating for the past 8/9 weeks, now its a hold. porkpie
IGO4IT
1st-September-2006, 04:25 PM
IGO, dont treat this like EXT!!
These guys are earning big money and with zincers starting to fire up again (ZFX, KZL) and endeavour to full production in october, this will be firing. Alot of big chomps went through on that 10.5m day, i saw 2 300ks and 1 500ks
Nizar,
This one is totally different from EXT, size & risk & everything is totally different & logically I can't just take a big position in 1 day & also I have to start somewhere!
Yes, I saw all these big buys & specially before close & next week looks like it could be interesting, it was very obvious how resistance became 47c instead of yesterday's 46.5c on depth which tells me that a break of 46.5 is really a possibility.
Got some more today & hopefully some more next week. I'm not trading this one,I'm holding long term because I think that finally I might had got in a bit early before the crowds gather to take a bite!
cheers,
Rafa
1st-September-2006, 05:15 PM
I think that finally I might had got in a bit early before the crowds gather to take a bite!
I really hope your right...
Then its party time...
:jump:
brerwallabi
3rd-September-2006, 08:24 PM
Looks like CBH might finally break out this week, it might move very quickly to make up the ground it has lost compared to the other zinc companies, see that gap in the image below between ZFX and CBH.
Beethoven
4th-September-2006, 11:44 AM
Looks like CBH might finally break out this week, it might move very quickly to make up the ground it has lost compared to the other zinc companies, see that gap in the image below between ZFX and CBH.
I hope you are right because it seems like this stock has to go through quite a lot of resistance to go through to get to the 50 cent level.
canaussieuck
4th-September-2006, 06:45 PM
What does everyone make of today's pullback? I'm at even odds for an increase or decrease tomorrow. Good volume today might have burned off a few sellers allowing the stock to continue the uptrend, any thoughts?
dubiousinfo
4th-September-2006, 07:23 PM
There remains a lot of selling pressure & the TKR takeover is dragging on a lot longer than it should have. They now have 82.3%, only 8% more and it can be wrapped up with compulsory acquistion.
This is still undervalued, but it's looking like it will have to claw every inch of the way to 50c before the selling pressure eases.
Wrapping up the TKR deal will help, as will an annoucement that Endevour is back to full production, which is expected in the 3rd quarter results.
I will continue to hold, maybe pick up some more if there is any signifcant pull back.
dj_420
4th-September-2006, 09:48 PM
apparantly the ann is due on wed. this should clear up doubts as to when production will be coming back on line 100%. i think everything is looking good with zinc fundamentals looking very good and market sentiment seems to be improving.
slight pullback today but it has already run into mid 40's. if it consolidates around this level 45 cents and shows some good buying support then can make another attempt at cracking the 46 c resistance.
remember CBH made a good 2 attempts at breaking resistance on 40 cents then broke through. another couple attempts and we will see 50 c plus
nizar
4th-September-2006, 10:29 PM
apparantly the ann is due on wed.
according to who?
dj_420
4th-September-2006, 11:56 PM
According to Wespac brokerage, CBH will release their interim results on Wednesday
this should alleviate some ppl concerns about returning to production
Basilisk
5th-September-2006, 11:31 AM
"Substantial Resource and Reserve upgrade for Endeavor Mine" announced today
Yeap great news for CBH. Price peaked at 49 cents and have broken the 46 cents resistance.
Rafa
5th-September-2006, 12:18 PM
Giddyup!!!
:jump: :jump: :jump:
IGO4IT
5th-September-2006, 12:32 PM
hmmmm...looks like a massive upgrade.
anyone with raugh estimtes on how much would that add per share? fundementally of course?
cheers,
Rafa
5th-September-2006, 12:36 PM
initial reaction is pretty muted to say the least :(
you'd think a 25% odd increase in resource for a companies primary mine would do an equivalent increase in the SP! But there are a lot of sellers between current SP and 50cents.
hypnotic
5th-September-2006, 12:57 PM
initial reaction is pretty muted to say the least :(
you'd think a 25% odd increase in resource for a companies primary mine would do an equivalent increase in the SP! But there are a lot of sellers between current SP and 50cents.
Yeah definitely a lot of sellers between .475 and .50
Profit taking perhaps?
i would have thought the market would have reacted better than this... :confused:
Hypnotic
IGO4IT
5th-September-2006, 01:41 PM
Yeah definitely a lot of sellers between .475 and .50
Profit taking perhaps?
i would have thought the market would have reacted better than this... :confused:
Hypnotic
relax guys, pressure on 47c shows big force coming in & obviously market needs time to digest the figures. Volume is already high & pressure is on.
When i saw the ann I thought it couldn't be as good as what it sounded but now you're confirming that I'm correct!
those that sell on strength are day traders & short termers. They have to sell & buyers know that.
I'm guessing another "big" run coming very soon.
Big boys don't miss opportunities like that!! I've sold few other stocks already to buy more of CBH & defenitely will be loaded before end of day tomorrow.
michael_selway
5th-September-2006, 07:16 PM
"Substantial Resource and Reserve upgrade for Endeavor Mine" announced today
so obviously, we have a long way to go & current price of 48.5c is a way below what this share could reach!!!
If anyone cares to look up the hartley's report, you'll find amazing summary to CBH & defenitely will give you better understanding to its solid fundementals.
cheers,
2020hindsight
5th-September-2006, 09:59 PM
Hartley's report on website predict a SP of $2.49 if zinc price stays the same. ... current price of 48.5c
Let's seeee,... if I see the farm - thats $100K - sell the horse - that's another 2K - sell the kids - that's $1K - and get in before 10am - I could be a multimillionaire before lunch :horse:
Beethoven
6th-September-2006, 12:10 PM
Finally broke the 50c resistance level. It seems its upward from now on :) :)
YOUNG_TRADER
6th-September-2006, 12:29 PM
I sold @ 50c, call me crazy but I have good feedback that lots of TKR shareholders will be dumping their CBH shares on the mkt,
CBH are issuing 100m shares all up so be careful, cause the dumping may start soon,
I held @ 47 and bought more at 35 so made a nice profit
Good luck to all those who are still riding, hope you make a ton
dj_420
6th-September-2006, 12:57 PM
hey YT
have a look at sellers, all seem to have moved further up into high 50's. befor there were 600k on 51 now back to 54. sellers are retreating their prices, seem to be in buyers hands now. if buyers can take it through into the 50's would be great
i think all market needs now is an ann that CBH are back into full production and woosh
michael_selway
6th-September-2006, 12:57 PM
I sold @ 50c, call me crazy but I have good feedback that lots of TKR shareholders will be dumping their CBH shares on the mkt,
CBH are issuing 100m shares all up so be careful, cause the dumping may start soon,
I held @ 47 and bought more at 35 so made a nice profit
Good luck to all those who are still riding, hope you make a ton
How much CBH shares does TKR shareholders have in total atm?
I sold @ 50c, call me crazy but I have good feedback that lots of TKR shareholders will be dumping their CBH shares on the mkt,
CBH are issuing 100m shares all up so be careful, cause the dumping may start soon,
I held @ 47 and bought more at 35 so made a nice profit
Good luck to all those who are still riding, hope you make a ton
Young trader,
I've been watching depth closely as I'm still a buyer at the moment.
1 buy order came in of 700k to take all 50c off plus all the few hundred thousands happened before it as well.
I still think it has a way to go considering current pressure.
cheers,
2020hindsight
6th-September-2006, 01:05 PM
Wish you bloks would make up your mind lol.
Ive changed by open order three times now ;) currently I plan to sell at 52:) - as if my opinion matters around here. - might as well toss a coin ( thats what I did incidentally) ;)
YOUNG_TRADER
6th-September-2006, 01:08 PM
Don't get me wrong, stock could go to 60c, but it could also continue to try and get there hovering around 49-51c level and fall back to 42c,
Over the next month 1 thing is for sure, there will be alot of TKR sellers,
TKR shareholders will get their stock once T/O goes through, should be mid Sept, so add 2 weeks, maybe early Oct
I'm just warning you all that I know brokers who act for some large TKR shareholders who have said that once they get CBH script they will sell!,
I'm not saying all will sell, but alot of them will.
Regards
Beethoven
6th-September-2006, 01:11 PM
I sold @ 50c, call me crazy but I have good feedback that lots of TKR shareholders will be dumping their CBH shares on the mkt,
CBH are issuing 100m shares all up so be careful, cause the dumping may start soon,
I held @ 47 and bought more at 35 so made a nice profit
Good luck to all those who are still riding, hope you make a ton
I kind of have to agree with IGO with that one. They still need another 8% or so to fully take over tkr and doing it very slowly. They also still have an ann coming soon. I think it has a little bit more to go before i sell :D
2020hindsight
6th-September-2006, 05:46 PM
..it has a little bit more to go before i sell :D
I belive it was Johann S Bach who said, "I agree Beethoven, the symphony is not quite finished." ;)
YOUNG_TRADER
7th-September-2006, 10:59 AM
Where the heck did all that buying volume go?
Fruit basket for Lord
The battle of wills between the board of CBH Resources and former Elders executive Geoff Lord ratcheted up another notch yesterday. The CBH board extended its bid for Triako until September 29 and held out a carrot to Lord, a Triako director, in the form of an offer to make the offer free of conditions if he accepts within two weeks.
Making matters even more complicated for the CBH board is the arrival of another arbitrageur and now substantial shareholder - Monterrey Investment Management - with a 5.6 per cent stake.
Regards
michael_selway
7th-September-2006, 11:04 AM
Where the heck did all that buying volume go?
Fruit basket for Lord
The battle of wills between the board of CBH Resources and former Elders executive Geoff Lord ratcheted up another notch yesterday. The CBH board extended its bid for Triako until September 29 and held out a carrot to Lord, a Triako director, in the form of an offer to make the offer free of conditions if he accepts within two weeks.
Making matters even more complicated for the CBH board is the arrival of another arbitrageur and now substantial shareholder - Monterrey Investment Management - with a 5.6 per cent stake.
Regards
Is this bearish ot bullish?
thx
MS
dj_420
7th-September-2006, 11:05 AM
It has run very hard in the last week or so, fighting through a lot of resistance to get to current sp. consolidation around this level would be good to make next assault and break through 50 cents. IMO the ann for return to production is needed to continue its run and show some more buying support.
long term io think this stock still looks fantastic, zinc prices beginning to pick up and we are still seeing a decent decline in LME zinc stockpiles.
what do you think long term for CBH YOUNG TRADER??
i think the fundamentals are great. 30% increase on reserves so its even more attractive than before.
rwkni1
7th-September-2006, 11:10 AM
I think this is obviously bearish for the stock, but rather than push it lower its more likely just to cap the gains given all the other positive news out there. Each time there has been an extension of a takeover or another substantial shareholder notice showing a measly increase in acceptances the share price has reacted negatively. IGO, any news on this interim report? I believe they should be announcing full production at Endeavour within the next few weeks.
YOUNG_TRADER
7th-September-2006, 11:17 AM
I think CBH is a great stock,
But just remember this, now it has a total of 800m shares fully dilliuted, please don't check comsec or something and say hey they only have 600m or so,
Trust me they have 800m, you have to add the 100m from the T/O and I think 85m from memory for the Conv Notes they have,
Anyway they DO HAVE 800M shares,
@ 50c Mkt Cap = $400m,
So they're not tiny, give them time and they will be a $1 stock (no brainer) just better short term opportunities out there IMO
dubiousinfo
7th-September-2006, 12:10 PM
Where the heck did all that buying volume go?
Fruit basket for Lord
The battle of wills between the board of CBH Resources and former Elders executive Geoff Lord ratcheted up another notch yesterday. The CBH board extended its bid for Triako until September 29 and held out a carrot to Lord, a Triako director, in the form of an offer to make the offer free of conditions if he accepts within two weeks.
Making matters even more complicated for the CBH board is the arrival of another arbitrageur and now substantial shareholder - Monterrey Investment Management - with a 5.6 per cent stake.
Regards
The offer was recommended unamimously by the board and in the Target Statement all the directors said they intended acepting for their personal holdings.
I thought Lord was just being slow in accepting, he can't really ask for more now after recommending to shareholders & telling them he was going to accept. So if he is holding out, what is it for?
When Lord accepts CBH would hold 85%
YOUNG_TRADER
7th-September-2006, 01:41 PM
Well I just found out something very interesting,
Apparantly overseas shareholders can't accept the T/O offer, due to Aust Corps Law
So a special purpose group has been buying up all the overseas shareholders shares (Monterrey Investment Management - with a 5.6 per cent stake)
So technically CBH have 80%+
So once Lord accepts its a done deal, but as Lord holds 10.11% it won't go through until he accepts (ie can't get 90% for compulsory acquisition)
So its going through, its a done deal, only question is how long, CBH have said that they will issue script within 5 days of T/O being completed.
dubiousinfo
7th-September-2006, 01:52 PM
YT
After the deal is completed, do you know what will happen with Monterrey's holdings?
Will they keep them or will they be sold off?
YOUNG_TRADER
7th-September-2006, 02:40 PM
YT
After the deal is completed, do you know what will happen with Monterrey's holdings?
Will they keep them or will they be sold off?
:dunno:
dubiousinfo
13th-September-2006, 04:37 PM
CBH have released its full year results and confirmed that endevour will be back to full production in October. They are forecasting an annual production rate of 1.2mil tonnes/yr which will see them equal the output 1.1mil tonnes for the 04/05 year.
During 04/05 year, the revenue from mining operations was $142m with overall costs of $131m for a $9.6m profit before tax.
As as rough guess at some numbers for the 06/07 year, using metal prices of $3,300/t zinc, $1100/t lead & $11/oz silver, they are looking at revenue of around $227m. Allowing for an increase of 20% for costs to $157m, they are looking at a profit of $70m for the year.
Using 800,000 as shares on issue & a sp of 45c, the profit would be 8.7c/shr & a PE of 5.2.
Throw in Triako & the new mines to be brought on line in coming years & some blue sky for the exploration tenements & the company looks good for the medium term.
rwkni1
19th-September-2006, 09:38 AM
Looks like triako has gone through.
kennas
19th-September-2006, 11:09 AM
CBH have released its full year results and confirmed that endevour will be back to full production in October. They are forecasting an annual production rate of 1.2mil tonnes/yr which will see them equal the output 1.1mil tonnes for the 04/05 year.
During 04/05 year, the revenue from mining operations was $142m with overall costs of $131m for a $9.6m profit before tax.
As as rough guess at some numbers for the 06/07 year, using metal prices of $3,300/t zinc, $1100/t lead & $11/oz silver, they are looking at revenue of around $227m. Allowing for an increase of 20% for costs to $157m, they are looking at a profit of $70m for the year.
Using 800,000 as shares on issue & a sp of 45c, the profit would be 8.7c/shr & a PE of 5.2.
Throw in Triako & the new mines to be brought on line in coming years & some blue sky for the exploration tenements & the company looks good for the medium term.
Thanks Dubious, Looks to be still on 1 year upward trend and if your figures are correct, then it looks undervalued atm. Corrected with everything else last week. I might pick up some more if it's sold off much more. Say $0.38 levels, around trend line and 200d ma.
dubiousinfo
19th-September-2006, 11:45 AM
Kennas,
CBH have undertaken to issue the shares to the TKR holders within 5 days of the takeover going through if the last director accepted by 19 Sept (which he has done)
So in regard to short term buying, keep in mind the comments of YT below:
Don't get me wrong, stock could go to 60c, but it could also continue to try and get there hovering around 49-51c level and fall back to 42c,
Over the next month 1 thing is for sure, there will be alot of TKR sellers,
TKR shareholders will get their stock once T/O goes through, should be mid Sept, so add 2 weeks, maybe early Oct
I'm just warning you all that I know brokers who act for some large TKR shareholders who have said that once they get CBH script they will sell!,
I'm not saying all will sell, but alot of them will.
Regards
kennas
19th-September-2006, 11:50 AM
Kennas,
CBH have undertaken to issue the shares to the TKR holders within 5 days of the takeover going through if the last director accepted by 19 Sept (which he has done)
So in regard to short term buying, keep in mind the comments of YT below:
Hmmm, interesting perspective. I rate YTs comments, so worth considering of course. I bought at $0.39 so perhaps time to get out and buy in lower.... :confused: Or, think long term.....
YOUNG_TRADER
19th-September-2006, 12:14 PM
Hmmm, interesting perspective. I rate YTs comments, so worth considering of course. I bought at $0.39 so perhaps time to get out and buy in lower.... :confused: Or, think long term.....
Kennas,
39c would seem safe,
Support as I predicted was found at 41-42c, thats why at 50c it was too good an opportunity not to sell,
Long term this is probably one of the lowest trading PER stocks around so you'll do well either way
dj_420
19th-September-2006, 12:42 PM
my avg is for 38 cents. i suppose the downside is that TKR shareholders dump all their stock after the t/o clears.
the results of that would mean we can pick up more CBH for cheap. and i dont think the TKR shareholders would want to force the sp down to much as it will affect their profits anyway.
i see this as a long term hold so i will just hold and wait and see. i see them as a great zinc producer who will benefit through the next two years, following a deficit in zinc stocks.
the advantage is that the TKR t/o issue is now resolved and CBH just have to get full production back online to make for more positive ann. so the t/o that was dragged out is now resolved. i think after TKR shareholders do what they want to do and an ann for full production will help sp greatly
michael_selway
19th-September-2006, 12:51 PM
Kennas,
39c would seem safe,
Support as I predicted was found at 41-42c, thats why at 50c it was too good an opportunity not to sell,
Long term this is probably one of the lowest trading PER stocks around so you'll do well either way
Well if u look at forward terminal PE of 10, its 46c!
But im bullish on Zinc running out, so things can be crazy then
thx
MS
Good work on 1000 posts MS!
Hey, I like your quote 'bullish on zinc running out'. LOL.
Like, clean out? None left at all?
dj_420
19th-September-2006, 09:28 PM
im very bullish about zinc and uranium.
zinc is flying out the window along with uranium.
is everyone still as bullish on zinc as before, there havent been any posts in zinc thread lately.
i agree with YT that TKR shareholders could dump all their stock very quickly, BUT sp showed huge amount of support this morning following ann that takeoverwas finally tied up and sealed. look at support levels from 40c upwards. it seems market sentiment may be positive for CBH again. i agree that the takeover did drag out considerably BUT now that is all settled.
im holding long term for this one, or at least until we see a zinc bubble next year. BTW what are peoples predictions for when LME runs empty on zinc (or close enough to cause sig increase in spot price)
25 000 tonnes per month decreasing, so 6 months give or take some tonnage ins from new orleans?? or considerable slowdown following last 50 000 tonnes
if TKR shareholders dump then i will be waiting to pick up some cheap shares along with other CBH supporters.
nizar
19th-September-2006, 09:43 PM
BTW what are peoples predictions for when LME runs empty on zinc (or close enough to cause sig increase in spot price)
Have a look at what is happening to nickel right now, and that may give u some idea of what will happen to zinc in 6 or so months
ZFX and AIM are the stocks to hold IMO, CBH hmmm... if they dont try to take over the world i mite consider them.
AIM will be coming into production at JUne 2007 at a time when zinc will be desperately in short supply and smelters will be fighting over it. The highest bidder wins... :D
WHats the perfect time to take over a company?
I dont really know, but i know its NOT when u are barely profitable, now there will be close to 800m shares and a traders fantasy and it will become like EXT, the sell side always stacked...
I find myself always making excuses as to why this stock is not performing. Once a dog, always a dog?
specman
19th-September-2006, 10:43 PM
im very bullish about zinc and uranium.
zinc is flying out the window along with uranium.
is everyone still as bullish on zinc as before, there havent been any posts in zinc thread lately.
i agree with YT that TKR shareholders could dump all their stock very quickly, BUT sp showed huge amount of support this morning following ann that takeoverwas finally tied up and sealed. look at support levels from 40c upwards. it seems market sentiment may be positive for CBH again. i agree that the takeover did drag out considerably BUT now that is all settled.
im holding long term for this one, or at least until we see a zinc bubble next year. BTW what are peoples predictions for when LME runs empty on zinc (or close enough to cause sig increase in spot price)
25 000 tonnes per month decreasing, so 6 months give or take some tonnage ins from new orleans?? or considerable slowdown following last 50 000 tonnes
if TKR shareholders dump then i will be waiting to pick up some cheap shares along with other CBH supporters.
I'm liking zinc as well.The rate of decline in LME inventory seems to have accelerated in the past 30 days.No more ins at New Orleans which could suggest that the hurricane damaged zinc have all been cleaned and returned on warrant.
nizar
19th-September-2006, 11:21 PM
No more ins at New Orleans which could suggest that the hurricane damaged zinc have all been cleaned and returned on warrant.
Just in time for the next hurricane!!
saichuen
20th-September-2006, 08:13 AM
ZFX and AIM are the stocks to hold IMO, CBH hmmm... if they dont try to take over the world i mite consider them.
AIM will be coming into production at JUne 2007 at a time when zinc will be desperately in short supply and smelters will be fighting over it. The highest bidder wins... :D
It's interesting to see that AIM is being compared here with CBH since one is in the explorer status with a promise to produce in mid-2007 while the other is a current producer who is already producing and will be back on track in full capacity by October. While I do agree that AIM has the potential, but in a volatile market today, broken promises will be severely punished.
My 2cents worth...
Happy Trading All!
porkpie324
20th-September-2006, 01:09 PM
i have to agree with the last post, a miner digging something up with good reserves is better than prospective miner, although don't get me wrong AIM does have good potential. Its just a higher risk when things are about to happen. porkpie
dj_420
20th-September-2006, 01:31 PM
Yes i agree, and the market does punish firms who dont keep promises. now shareholders are expecting AIM to be producing in june 2007 if not sp will suffer
nizar
20th-September-2006, 07:41 PM
now shareholders are expecting AIM to be producing in june 2007 if not sp will suffer
Not only the shareholders will be disappointed but so will the 3 companies who have already signed offtake agreements with AIM including Xstrata!
dj_420
22nd-September-2006, 01:12 PM
Another article on zinc
http://metalsplace.com/metalsnews/?a=7185
Expect zinc prices to be in USD 3,700 range: Uttam Galva
Source: Moneycontrol.com
See also
Zinc Board
Zinc CatalogUttam Galva Steel is in news because the company has announced that they will be hiking galvanised steel prices by about Rs 1,000 a tonne, with immediate effect. There is buoyancy in international prices, which does hold an argument for this increase.
Director of Uttam Galva Steels, Ankit Miglani says that steel prices have come off from their highs, but they have stopped falling and have leveled off.
He adds that they foresee zinc prices to go up much faster and expect it to be closer to the USD 3,700 odd range.
Excerpts from CNBC-TV18's exclusive interview with Ankit Miglani:
Q: Explain to us really the rationale behind increasing prices now, given that steel is a raw material for you and zinc has seen some amount of cooling off in the month of September?
A: You are absolutely right. There was some sort of cooling off at the beginning, but we must realise that the actual pricing is done on monthly averages and on global demand supplies. On a day-to-day basis, one might see some slackening in prices, but if one looks at it on a monthly perspective, the prices have actually been consistently going up over the past few months.
As far as steel is concerned, the prices have come off from their highs, but they have stopped falling and have leveled off.
We are seeing an increase of USD 30-USD 40 per tonne over the past couple of weeks. This is primarily because of the fact that Chinese export rebates have been cut, so their exports have become less competitive in the global market. That has a direct impact on Indian steel industries because we have only a 5% duty now and anything that happens in the world affects the Indian steel industry directly.
Q: Today internationally zinc is quoting at about USD 3,360 per tonne level. You have hiked prices by Rs 1000 at this point in time. Going forward, how many more hikes are likely to match these international price levels?
A: The zinc price today is really less relevant. It is more important to see what is the average for the whole month, because that is how the real pricing is done. If zinc stays at these levels, the average price will be higher than last month's average zinc price. But we foresee zinc to go up much faster. We expect it to be closer to the USD 3,700 odd range in which case we would expect much stronger increases in galvanised prices also.
Q: Could you quantify that?
A: It depends on the exact quantum of the zinc price increase, because zinc is probably a 7% input cost for galvanised steel. According to that ratio, the prices of galvanised steel would keep increasing.
dj_420
28th-September-2006, 12:27 PM
CBH is showing a lot of support from 40 cents right up to 43.5 cents. is CBH going to start moving again, zinc price has risen and is looking stronger every day. just waiting for ann that CBH is back to full production.
kennas
29th-September-2006, 10:09 AM
CBH is showing a lot of support from 40 cents right up to 43.5 cents. is CBH going to start moving again, zinc price has risen and is looking stronger every day. just waiting for ann that CBH is back to full production.
Yep, it's looking pretty good. Nice long term rise going on. Going back to full production in Oct. When ann, this should provide more support to the sp. Just needs to get through this resistance at $0.45ish again, and make that a base for further rises.
Tetrahedrite
29th-September-2006, 01:40 PM
Does anyone care to speculate on the reasons for today's run? Is it the finalising of the TKR deal, the iminent return to full production at Endeavor, or something else?
kennas
29th-September-2006, 01:44 PM
Does anyone care to speculate on the reasons for today's run? Is it the finalising of the TKR deal, the iminent return to full production at Endeavor, or something else?
General market sentiment for the moment I reckon. Just had a couple of positive days overall. Finalising the TKR deal is probably positive too. Restart full production next month at Endeavour is a positive also.
dubiousinfo
29th-September-2006, 02:02 PM
Announement from CBH stated TKR shareholders would be allotted their shares by close of business on Thur 5 Oct, so TKR shareholder selling may start Fri 6 Oct.(see YT's post #206)
I think I will look to sell into this rise & hopefully buy back in at a lower price after any selling is flushed out & we have seen what October has in store for us.
YOUNG_TRADER
29th-September-2006, 04:34 PM
Announement from CBH stated TKR shareholders would be allotted their shares by close of business on Thur 5 Oct, so TKR shareholder selling may start Fri 6 Oct.(see YT's post #206)
I think I will look to sell into this rise & hopefully buy back in at a lower price after any selling is flushed out & we have seen what October has in store for us.
:iagree:
rwkni1
29th-September-2006, 04:50 PM
I guess that strategy makes sense, but it depends on the sort of uplift you think the company will receive from the announcement of full production. That news is also likely to come out not long after October 5th, and may negate all of the sell orders from ex-Triako shareholders. Also, you'd think that a certain percentage of those shareholders may do a little bit of research on CBH and come to the conclusion that it is hugely undervalued themselves.
kennas
29th-September-2006, 05:18 PM
I guess that strategy makes sense, but it depends on the sort of uplift you think the company will receive from the announcement of full production. That news is also likely to come out not long after October 5th, and may negate all of the sell orders from ex-Triako shareholders. Also, you'd think that a certain percentage of those shareholders may do a little bit of research on CBH and come to the conclusion that it is hugely undervalued themselves.
I agree that the ann to full production will benefit the sp and might offset the TKR shareholders selling. If they do.
I like the chart atm and thik $0.50 is achievable in the next few days, pending commodity stability.
Long term it's still trending up.
michael_selway
29th-September-2006, 08:22 PM
I agree that the ann to full production will benefit the sp and might offset the TKR shareholders selling. If they do.
I like the chart atm and thik $0.50 is achievable in the next few days, pending commodity stability.
