TLS - Telstra Corporation

With the LIB's having the power now to sell telstra, what will this do for tls??? do you believe it would be a buy if they sold it off??? What would the advantages and disadvantages???
I will be looking at it as a long term hold. I think giving full power to the share holders and board will lead TLS into different areas.

Anyone's thoughts??

Well, johnny howard selling telstra would mean that it expand the growth potential of telstra. However, telstra is still limited (by law) to eliminate its competitors, although they are capable of doing just that. The next thing our economy doesn't want to have is have another MICROSOFT. I think whats limiting tls to its full potential is that its only limited to Australia. In my opinion, if telstra was too expand into international grounds, then we might finally see telstra lose its dog tag.

The fact that the government wants a higher price for Telstra means it'll be doing everything it can to have the share price go up before the float in 2006.
That at least is a bullish indicator. I think there are better co's around; good dividend yield though and it's at historic lows (or there abouts).

Lucstar,

Telstra has certainly made attempts at expanding internationally, without much success. Telstra now seems to have settled down to be a relative high yielding utility. Telstra has actually done quite well out of competition, many of their competitors use at least some of Telstra's network for their services. As a result much of Telstra's revenue has moved from the retail side to the wholesale division. In many areas the wholesale should be better margins as you don't need anywhere near the same number of customer support staff.

Don't know what they can do to increase the share price, they're unlikely to be able to increase market share (due to the ACCC) and there's only so much more cost cutting they can do.

Rod.

Whatever happens keep your eyes and ears open since there'll be millions of reports and observations coming out in the media since a Telstra sale in now in play. Considering that this is a bull market, I don't now why you should stay in Telstra when there are plenty of other stocks running well and paying reasonable dividends- see the bottom drawer stocks thread for example. IF I held TLS I'd sell on any spikes heading towards $5.

I heard the Treasurer say today that TLS will remain majority Australian owned and that he was looking for a price of at least $5 before a sale. When you have the fed govt trying to jack the price up and what will be an army of advisers and investment banks about to join in the float I don't really see how it'll not make $5, it's just that it'll take time and that means hanging on to a dud with just dividends for comfort when lots of other bluechips are running well.

I basically don't think it is a well run company from what I've heard and see lots of resistance at $5, which limits upside. Better to look for value elsewhere. Sorry to be negative but just my opinion.

Lucstar,

many of their competitors use at least some of Telstra's network for their services. As a result much of Telstra's revenue has moved from the retail side to the wholesale division.
Rod.

But new technology like that used by Unwired Broadband will start to eat in. Even Optus has started aggressive marketing, recently announcing 3 to 4 months of free broadband access for bundling options.

In many areas the wholesale should be better margins as you don't need anywhere near the same number of customer support staff.

Can't say TLS 'service' is as good as it should be anyway, but at least it's improved since the bad old days! While the bush is still a political issue it'll also have to support those areas. But the current ACCC make-up may mean less aggression towards TLS than under Alan Fels - especially re: its behaviour towards smaller competitors.

Don't know what they can do to increase the share price, they're unlikely to be able to increase market share (due to the ACCC) and there's only so much more cost cutting they can do.

Exactly! 3G and new technology/markets is what they'll be looking at, but again it doesn't happen overnight and competition is still fierce.

One way to stay ahead is not to get into the fanciful ventures they got into in Hong Kong for example with PCCW.

TLS to $5.50..

great possiblity.. have been trading turbo warrants and CFD's, after TLS made a close above $5.05.. but as of yet.. still looking to re-enter in again.. though missed my entry today.. when it trade back up above $5.20..

though short term, $5.50 is possible...

Cheers,
sis

IMHO the only reason tls is going up is because a number of brokerage firms have upgraded it, hoping for a slice of the action when the remainder is sold off. It is still the same old company with an aging copper network, the mobile market is saturated, people may start moving from fixed line to mobile as prices drop, and as stated above internet is moving to wireless.

Thats no reason not to make money out of it while it is in favour though!

Yes, TLS had a short price run when the big end of town were vying for the $600 million fees for T3 to be carved up.

Looks like it was a short term 'support' as I expected.

I do not see much SP growth for TLS because it will face many problems going forward. Example, VoIP will reduce its revenues significantly. It has also not resolved a non recourse debt of around USD 1 billion that is still owing by Reach (the bad business in HK that it had a JV with PCCW). The JV for Foxtel has already lost a lot of money and continues to lose money.

Intense competition from just about every other player in the telco sector.

I have read that American investors are not interested in T3. Based on international P/E's for telcos, TLS is probably still a bit overpriced.

I do not hold. Bought T1 at IPO. Later sold. Avoided T2.

I see more downside risk than upside potential.

Brokers talk about the high dividend yields, without stressing that future DPS hinges on future EPS not falling and that DPS payout is already around 90% of EPS, meaning not much prospect for SP growth.

Even Telstra's own technicians readily admit that the copper network has only been patched up for many years. That is, there is no real investment in the future of that part of their business and in due course infrastructure will fail thus necessitating either massive investment or withdrawal of the service.

It's a bit like having a 30 year old car and only buying the minimum parts needed to keep it running and not doing any servicing. In due course you can't keep doing it that way.

My guess is that the copper network is in due course abandoned in favour of optical fibre bulk data transmission and wireless connection to the end user.

(I have never worked for TLS and do not hold stock but suffice to say that I'm very familiar with underground cabling and have periodic contact with their techs.)

Also Telstra management is very "proceedure" based rather than practical.

Even Telstra's own technicians readily admit that the copper network has only been patched up for many years. That is, there is no real investment in the future of that part of their business and in due course infrastructure will fail thus necessitating either massive investment or withdrawal of the service.

...

Yes. I have read that as well.

Yes, TLS had a short price run when the big end of town were vying for the $600 million fees for T3 to be carved up.

Looks like it was a short term 'support' as I expected.

That's one of the price risks with TLS imo (both ways) as any future work for brokers (eg Seek or the like) may end up being a bribe for brokers to talk up Telstra in exchange for govt favours. Still the bad old behemoth it was a year ago, things don't change that fast for TLS.

The new CEO of TLS should be announced soon. Does anyone know when?

Anyone willing to say what they see in the tea leaves after Sol Trujillo's massive public relations blitz this weekend? Or did we all miss it?

Having done my dough - I mean cunningly taken a capital loss - on T2, I don't have any opinions about Telstra's future, nor yet any advice for Sol. However, by coincidence last week I was reading one of the books about Lou Gerstner and his turnaround of IBM, so I was quite interested to hear Simple Sol's lack of enthusiasm for splitting Telstra. When Gerstner took over at IBM breaking it up was widely regarded as a possible solution to its troubles (much worse troubles than Telstra's) and some steps had actually been taken. He decided against that, although he did close or sell off some divisions. He also rightsized some 70,000 employees - but I guess Telstra can't do that, praise the pigs.

Ghoti

I am confused by this stock. It seems to have two types of investors, those that undervalue it & invest in it and those that love it & get scared and sell at the first point of problems. It doesn't make any sense to me why this is one of the highest traded stocks yet has very little movement (Over the last 50 days it has been $0.05).
I don't understand how they can make a 4 billion dollar profit and get hammered. When the stock is reviewed most people are selling which would indicate that they were taking profit, yet most of the stock would have been bought at a higher price than what it is being sold at. Does this mean that there are inexperienced investors in the trade or large investors trying to control the price or people who do not want Telstra privatised and are controlling price. As i said I am very confused by this stock because even with the problems they are having I would have expected investor confidence and therefore the stock would be trending up on news of 4 billion profit.

Current profit was good, but future guidance is bad.

Not sure about the FA of tls.. and im not a fan of theirs,
But. TA suggests this support line will be held.. :)

Hey all.

Is it just me, or with telstras share price diving right now.
due to all the speculation about the coming years profits .etc

That is almost a great time to buy in?
They are paying 6% div.

Anyone have thoughts on telstra?

woof?

No I don't think it is a good time to buy.Second half profit lower and maybe
worse to come, expect share price to drop to $4.50. Maybe better bet UNW
running lots of adds now on TV and radio share price has nearly double in the
last 6 weeks which I think is due to the fact that by next quarter they might
be cash positive - I would not rule out that sp could hit a $1.00 or even more.

Aden,

I added a few thousand to my long-term portfolio this morning.

I reckon Donald and Sol are likely to be around a bit longer than John and Helen.

Coonan worries me, I think she's out of her depth.

That's two pretty significant down gaps on very high volumes. I would wait awhile until it formed a base before buying any, it might keep dropping for awhile

MIT

TLS pays this year 35cents per share fully franked...next years payout will be 40 cents in total with special dividents....for long term hold..very cheap at present price when it settles down price will rise again...big buying by institutions.....not by small investors...TLS needs to have more overseas investors up to 50 % to increase the price..Australia to small to absorb this hugh amount...watch overseas institution buying..maybe buying allready..give away price for a company who produced over $4 billion $$$ in profit

Here's the chart and you can see it has drop through a major support point at a very high volume. It might be a great fundamentally but technically the balance of probability is that there is no sign of it changing direction soon and buying now might be like trying to catch a knife.

I'd wait to see it recover or at least go sideways first.

MIT

I think maybe that the whole problem with TLS are the fundamentals, nearly
half their money comes from fixed lines with little external competition but
the rest come from mobiles, internet etc which are all very competitive and
the more that they compete the more they hurt their own fixed line business- like a dog chasing his tail - not to mention the government chasing the dog.

Telstra will boost their share price for the sale. After that, its all down hill. I'd personally put this as a buy at around 4.60 and sell at 6.50. It wont get any higher than that. Increased competition in the communications sector, along with companies like IIN(iiNet) and Internode(argile communications), watch these guys when they float. Both of them currently have their own DSLAMS in telstra exchanges, which allows them to offer far better deals than Telstra would normally allow them to. Also, they have ADSL 2/2+ capability which gives them a huge advantage over telstra in the plans they can offer, much higher speeds, and better reliability.

:2twocents

Telstra will boost their share price for the sale. After that, its all down hill. I'd personally put this as a buy at around 4.60 and sell at 6.50. It wont get any higher than that. Increased competition in the communications sector, along with companies like IIN(iiNet) and Internode(argile communications), watch these guys when they float. Both of them currently have their own DSLAMS in telstra exchanges, which allows them to offer far better deals than Telstra would normally allow them to. Also, they have ADSL 2/2+ capability which gives them a huge advantage over telstra in the plans they can offer, much higher speeds, and better reliability.

:2twocents
At present the divs return now 8% fully franked

At present the divs return now 8% fully franked

Sure, but that doesn't mean anything when the company falls through the floor in a couple of years. Since the dawn of telstra, they have been ripping people off, wholesalers, retailers, consumers. They are basically in tatters at the moment, hence there rush to get a new CEO on the books to make them seem like they are getting their act together. The fact is, Telstra has had record profits again and again, and share holders will continue to expect more and more, and they wont get it any more, there is so much competition out there in the telecommunications sector that its impossible for them to get much more. There market share has been dropping year after year. Yet there profits increase only because they figure out a way to scam people with the services they currently have(eg, excess charges on broadband internet bills).

I have no doubt in my mind that Telstra's best days are over. Artificial price boosting is the only way they are going to be able to make the sale, after that, kiss your money good bye if you have any them.

I would not touch this share with a barge pole. New technology such as cheap phone calls over the net will soon blow them out of the water.

Telstra will boost their share price for the sale. After that, its all down hill. I'd personally put this as a buy at around 4.60 and sell at 6.50. It wont get any higher than that. Increased competition in the communications sector, along with companies like IIN(iiNet) and Internode(argile communications), watch these guys when they float. Both of them currently have their own DSLAMS in telstra exchanges, which allows them to offer far better deals than Telstra would normally allow them to. Also, they have ADSL 2/2+ capability which gives them a huge advantage over telstra in the plans they can offer, much higher speeds, and better reliability.

:2twocents
And you get heaps better customer service with iiNet too. Something that can't be doing Telstra much good.

I have periodic contact with Telstra technicians through work. They always say much the same thing, usually without being asked. Telstra haven't been spending anywhere near enough to maintain their infrastructure and it's come to the point where it's basically cheaper to just replace rather than fix it up.

On another point, does everyone realise that Telstra has thousands, probably hundreds of thousands, of pits in the ground. These are the things with concrete lids on them, usually oval shaped for the small ones and rectangular for the bigger ones. You probably have one near your house somewhere.

Now, I don't want to cause any panic here and I've been assured that they're quite safe if you're not touching them but they're made of asbestos. Any idea how many $ Telstra has set aside in case of compensation claims? They're not puting these in any more (they use plastic to make them these days) but a lot of workers would have been exposed over several decades installing them. There's an ongoing risk of exposure for maintenance workers too, especially those installing new conduits into the old pits since that involves putting a hole in the asbestos. Some of the conduits (pipes) that they run the cables through are also made of asbestos.

The big pits with 4 large lids commonly found in city areas are apparently made of concrete so are safe. It's the small ones that are the problem. They aren't removing them since doing so would create dust (which is exactly what you don't want to do with asbestos) and is a pretty difficult ($$$) task without disconnecting all the cables first.

So, no need to panic if there's one in your garden but I wouldn't be messing about with it. If you do come in direct contact with asbestos then I'm told (by a doctor) that (1) make sure you don't inhale it or spread it around where it could be inhaled in the future and (2) it's especially important that you wash your hands very well before going to the toilet since the skin in that region of the body is different to the skin on your hands and asbestos fibres will penetrate it which can lead to cancer. (Apparently many former asbestos workers get cancer in this region but it's somewhat of a "taboo" subject since it implies lack of personal hygene.)

But do you want to own stock in a company with a potential asbestos liability? You decide, I'm just passing on what I know.

I did read in the paper that fund managers are selling out of Telstra, could be the main reasons for the price drop.

I think this yank dude is spending like he lives in the USA. Kinda can't see our little Johnny Howard coughin' up $5 billion to increase services in the bush.

I regard my holding as part of "cash at bank". The returns are better. If it ever achieves some capital growth, good, but if not, it can continue to trickle in as at present. Unless, that is, it continues a downward path which I don't think will happen once the market accommodates the CEO's gloomy forecast which I think was possibly intentional for political purposes.

Julia

... Kinda can't see our little Johnny Howard coughin' up $5 billion to increase services in the bush.
Seems like little Johnny has a little cough - his cold may be worse - presently looking at $3bln the negotiations have begun...

I bought a few thousand more this morning @ $4.78.

Considering all the negative vibes proffered from the "experts" I read in the papers over the w'end, I thought TLS held up rather well.

Donald & Sol - CRASH OR CRASH THROUGH !!

"Buy in Gloom"
I think I will wait for a bit more gloom this time.

News article

Telstra up as investors chase dividend (http://afr.com/articles/2005/08/15/1123957992761.html)

Rozella,

You appear to be the man who knows his dividends.

TLS is keeping her head above water today, despite the negatives.

In your opinion, how much is this result yield driven, versus other factors?

G'day waratah,

You appear to be the man who knows his dividends.
Ha-Ha.....I wish.

I have found that "The lure of the dividend, gives a stock a reason to rise", & thats it, nothing fancy about the dividend trading strategy.

With TLS, it is a big dividend when you take the special into account. I own it, but it is a "dog" of a stock. I have made money & lost money with it.....I'd say lost more than I have made over the years, & many a time I have said I will never touch it again.

Just my own personal opinion (not advice whatsoever), the only thing that I see it has going for it at the moment is the lure of the dividend, but not to stay in for the dividend, I will take what I can on the leadup to exdiv & sell, & I will probably still be behind. With interest it owes me 530.0 atm. I did what we all do sometimes & let fall below my stop.....it does not pay.

So you can see how much I like TLS

Rozella,

No, I was serious, mate. I like your stuff.

I added TLS to my long-term portfolio late last week and yesterday. Must admit, I considered the possibility that I'd be averaging out at around $4.50 sometime this week, having read all the doom & gloom from the "experts" in the weekend tissues.

If the new Chairman & CEO are unable to sort that joint out and give investors some confidence over the medium/long term, then Yes....I'll consign TLS to the kennel as well.

In the meantime, well bid @ $4.86 as we speak.

Here is another article

Telstra shares continue short-term recovery (http://www.tradingroom.com.au/news_research/index.jsp?section=finance_wire&page=/data/news_research/published/2005/8/228/catf_050816_171000_1913.html)

My target is $4.65 ish
The divi must be looking very attractive to some.

Anyone know why the governement thinks next year is the best time for them to sell the rest of Telstra? It was on the news that they are thinking that, but why?

Does not give a reason for the timing

Govt clears way for Telstra sale with $3bn bush package (http://www.tradingroom.com.au/news_research/index.jsp?section=finance_wire&page=/data/news_research/published/2005/8/229/catf_050817_195300_1321.html)

Howard in a speech indicated that he was given advice that the price might be better next year for a sale. At least somebody somewhere is bullish about next year.

MIT

I am sorry to keep going on about WD Gann...
(I normally keep to my own thread.)

He said many years ago that "The fifth year of the decade is the ascension year"

We have never had (so far) a down year in the fifth year of the decade.
2005 1995 1985 etc

Maybe the government advisors know this.

I am sorry to keep going on about WD Gann...
He said many years ago that "The fifth year of the decade is the ascension year"
We have never had (so far) a down year in the fifth year of the decade.
2005 1995 1985 etc
Maybe the government advisors know this.

Wouldn't they sell this year (1995) then :confused: rather than next year 1996 as they want a high price?

No mit the prices should keep going up until next year.
Look at the sixth year of the decade. (usually higher prices)

In 1996 we peaked on March 4th
I know I sold the market :)
Please see "Trading the SPI"

Wouldn't they sell this year (1995) then :confused: rather than next year 1996 as they want a high price?

Oops I meant 2005 and 2006.

Battman,

I have the SPI plot in front of me. Only from 1983 but there were only a half dozen down years in this entire period so most years ended higher than they started and there doesn't seem to be anything particularly different around the years ending in '5. It did peak in March 1996, but after a minor correction the year finished stronger. Looked at 1986 and it didn't peak in March but later in the year and again finished the year higher.

MIT

Hehe!

Gann talks about well over 100 years of Dow.
He died in 1955 (wasn't a good year for him) :)
77 years of age.

SPI started Feb 16th 1983

The 1995 range peaked on March 4th 1996
Pulled back to July 17th (50% of the range)

My target is $4.65 ish
The divi must be looking very attractive to some.

$4.69 Low for today. :)
Thoughts anyone!!

$4.66 as I type
It will be nice to see $4.65

Bronto thats all very well...but look at the stock which is shortsold....whoever they are they will have to buy stock on the open market...there are at present 15 million shares sold without stock....and watch what will happen....stock needs to be delivered within 3 days....so by next tuesday they must have bought this stock....and before div.payout...its now a buy ...sp will go up

I certainly agree with you chicken legs.
Very well done with the comp. :)

I certainly agree with you chicken legs.
Very well done with the comp. :)

$4.70 before XD and then $4.30 - $4.50

Interesting article in the SMH yesterday. The government is looking at changing the media laws.

This would pave the way for Telstra to aquire all of Foxtel, Fairfax and possibly Channel Nine (currently under a cloud at PBL)

With the new laws in place (no probs with a majority in the senate) the government will be paving the way for Telstra to demonstrate a very strong growth strategy that will impress the investment community and as such raise the SP (sky rocket), prior to T3.

Telstra as a 360 degree, fully intergrated media bohemath is probably the only way that T3 will fly, allowing the government a maximum return on their 51%.

FYI

SMH - 31st August 2005

Telecommunications Minister Helen Coonan is considering a revamp of media ownership laws that would allow a single company to own newspapers, radio and television stations in the same market.

Addressing the National Press Club, Senator Coonan said that, subject to keeping some licence and reach limits, she was looking at ways to allow mergers of existing media systems.

"I'm considering an approach where mergers could take place between the regulated platforms of television, radio and newspapers within a licence area," she said.

"This would mean, for example, there could be common ownership of a television licence, two radio stations and an associated newspaper or other combinations in that same market."

Senator Coonan said she was looking at a system where mergers could be allowed, as long as there was enough competition in the market.

"Mergers would be subject to there remaining a minimum number of commercial media groups in the relevant regional and metropolitan markets. Four voices in regional markets and five in mainland state capitals," she said.

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AAP

Exert from today's SMH - Note her last referefence to "perhaps in other networks"

Telstra will very soon be on the aqusition trail. Any media with substantial reach will be a potential target.

SMH - 1 September 2005

"Obviously Telstra, along with every other dominant telecommunication provider in the world, is feeling some pressure because of declining revenues that are returned from its fixed line network.

"But it needs to be more competitive in other areas, in mobile delivery, in broadband and perhaps in other networks.

"Buy in Gloom"
Can Telstra get any gloomier?
New 52 week Low.
$4.59 today.

Telstra Corp Ltd has abandoned plans for a five bln aud share buyback to boost its share price ahead of the 51.8 pct Australian government-owned telecommunications group's full privatization, The Australian Financial Review reported, citing Telstra sources.



Uh Oh !!

TLS down .10 so far, thanks to the public slanging match between Burgess and Howard/ Coonan. Can't they keep it in the boardroom.

Burgess, Telstra 2IC has gone on record, The AGE newspaper, to state that he would not sell TLS shares to his mother. This guy needs to be gagged or sent packing.

TLS down .10 so far, thanks to the public slanging match between Burgess and Howard/ Coonan. Can't they keep it in the boardroom.

Burgess, Telstra 2IC has gone on record, The AGE newspaper, to state that he would not sell TLS shares to his mother. This guy needs to be gagged or sent packing.

I agree, if I was a Telstra share holder I would be extremely unhappy with there performances. This new telstra crew has done more damage than good so far. I agree with him though, I wouldn't sell TLS shares to anyone, they are overvalued and whats more, there forecast is absolutely terrible. As Telstra refuses more and more to do anything about their ageing infrastructure, there more they will lose out.

"Buy in Gloom"
Can Telstra get any gloomier?
New 52 week Low.
$4.59 today.


It can get alot gloomier. But I wouldn't say it'll do that any time soon. So mabey nows the time to buy if your looking for a quick rise before the sell off(if it ever happens).

And the political manuvouring continues. Media changes not top priority, more like let's not draw to much attention to the fact that we need to change the current media laws to give Telstra any chance of growth.

Read between the lines. Media laws will change soon and Telstra will go on a spending spree.

FYI


Media changes not top priority: PM
September 2, 2005 - 10:37AM

If the government could reach an agreement on proposed media ownership changes in the public interest it would proceed but it wasn't top priority, Prime Minister John Howard says.

Mr Howard said he had never supported the present media ownership laws and opposed them way back when they were introduced.

He said he and communications minister Helen Coonan had discussed her proposals for media ownership changes.

"I authorised her to go and talk to people about it, talk to different sections of the community and when she has completed that process, she will come back and talk to me and cabinet will discuss it," he told ABC radio in Tasmania.

"If we can obtain agreement on a fair package then we will go ahead with it. If we can't then I don't regard changing the existing laws as the most important priority for the government in this term.

"But if we can reach agreement and it seems in the public interest then we will go ahead with it. If we can't then we won't."

Under proposed changes outlined this week, Australia's media moguls would be able to join forces and foreign media players enter the local market.

Under the plans, a single media company could own a TV station, two radio stations and a newspaper all in the one market.

As a result, Rupert Murdoch's News Corp would be free to snap up the Ten Network and newspaper giant Fairfax to buy Kerry Packer's Nine Network.

Foreign media players could also snare Australian TV networks and newspapers, subject to federal government approval.

Mr Howard said the media market had changed so much and the existing restrictions should no longer apply.

"I don't think you should have prohibitions on cross media [ownership]. There are other things that can be looked at," he said.

"I know the ABC has put submissions about other things that can be looked at. That is what Senator Coonan is doing at present and I believe that she is doing it well. But it is not number one on my list."

AAP

I'd just like to point out that UNW is going to be a major threat to Telstra in the future, both as a whole saler of bandwidth and a retail competitor. Now that intel is backing them, and there interstate rollout begins in 2006, they will slowly but surely take over alot of Telstra's revenue, as specially with all the new WiMAX 802.16e technogies being developed by Intel and other manufacturers.

Just thought i'd bring that to everyones attention.

:goodnight

the top few executives are not setting good examples to the thousands working in telstra and definitely not good ambassadors of the company. looks like telstra has got a mountain to climb.

selling mine after ex-div.

By the time they go ex-div I wonder if they will be worth anything at all????

Did I hear it correctly through the week that one of the exec. was quoted as saying that he wouldn't even buy TLS shares for his own mother?

Brokers fleeing this stock in droves, not good for the government and as a whole for the people of Australia.

I'd just like to point out that UNW is going to be a major threat to Telstra in the future, both as a whole saler of bandwidth and a retail competitor. Now that intel is backing them, and there interstate rollout begins in 2006, they will slowly but surely take over alot of Telstra's revenue, as specially with all the new WiMAX 802.16e technogies being developed by Intel and other manufacturers.

Just thought i'd bring that to everyones attention.

:goodnight

I fully agree with el-ninj0, I think UNW will achieve revenue neutral by the end
of next quarter (sept) which will be a surprise to the market (they need only about 45,000 customers to break even not as stated by some 70,000 which was the initial capacity of the network and not the breakeven number) and it will have a major impact to its share price maybe up to a $1.00 with more to come if it really becomes a threat to Tls or someone else.

Phew, down 20 cents & 27 million traded in the 1st 17 minutes

TLS is doing the red baron.

Thanks to Burgess's comments last week, "I would not recommend Telstra shares to my mother" the government is now going to have to move a bit quicker on revising the current media ownership laws.

Unwired is not going to effect Telstra business. Telstra already have an wireless service, which will be quicker then Unwired, with 3G. The Telstra version of 3G is being launched this week.

Growth for Telstra is not going to come from tradional revenue streams i.e. domestic and business fixed line, ADSL, mobile or Broadband.

Telstra growth will come from media content delivery through a convergence of media platforms, that will operate on Telstra networks.

TLS is doing the red baron.

Thanks to Burgess's comments last week, "I would not recommend Telstra shares to my mother" the government is now going to have to move a bit quicker on revising the current media ownership laws.

Unwired is not going to effect Telstra business. Telstra already have an wireless service, which will be quicker then Unwired, with 3G. The Telstra version of 3G is being launched this week.

Growth for Telstra is not going to come from tradional revenue streams i.e. domestic and business fixed line, ADSL, mobile or Broadband.

Telstra growth will come from media content delivery through a convergence of media platforms, that will operate on Telstra networks.
That may be so....but taking an axe to telstra is not to do business..I agree thinks have to change but not at the expense of small shareholders..this handling of this business is NOT professional...As the Goverment said...the Mexican thinks he runs the country..THE GOVERMENT RUNS THE COUNTRY...I was not happy with the Choice of CEO in the beginning well here we got the s...t just hit the fan I am sure negotiation would have been the way to go forward not using an AXE...Sol if he carries on like that will be replaced smartly....the sooner the better.....

Looks that ‘Three Amigos’ follow typical scenario for US bread CEO’s.

They come and cry poor, company is almost collapsing, everything is wrong.
Then, due to their interference things turn around and CEO big name gets bigger.

Of course this doesn’t have to be the case, they could be really something.

Unwired is not going to effect Telstra business. Telstra already have an wireless service, which will be quicker then Unwired, with 3G. The Telstra version of 3G is being launched this week.


I have to disagree on that one Yippyio. My profession is Information Technology, and I do know for a fact that the service that WiMAX can provide is a phenominal advantage to Unwired over every other telecommunications service provider in the country. Im sure ive already said this, but Unwired own the WiMAX spectrum. Thats why Intel has just made a deal with Unwired, and not Telstra, because the understand the benefit to them in the future will far outway the costs right now.

Thanks for the heads up on that El Ninjo, TLS is just getting smellier and smellier.

So the question remains, "Where will TLS head ?"

Well Confucius says, "Try to pick bottom and you get smelly finger"

But isn't there also a huge cost difference between wireless and 3G?

I have always thought that though Telstra have had problems with regulations, with all of their property and huge cash-flow they had huge opportunities. They could have put a huge broadband wireless network through-out Australia. San Francisco is introducing a free wireless network through the city. Instead of Telstra doing it, others have made the running and with VOIP and so-forth the only way for Telstra is down.

Because of the distance to the nearest exchange I was never going to get ADSL, Telstra took two months to tell me that I was too far away for ADSL and didn't even try to discuss alternatives.

Somebody has just put a wireless tower near me with reasonably priced broadband. Why couldn't Telstra do this for both voice and internet?

MIT

But isn't there also a huge cost difference between wireless and 3G? I think that is where Telstra has shown it's style. Think of all of the cash it has and all of the properties it has access to. It could have put up a huge wireless network. This is where it is going to get unstuck and has missed opportunities.

MIT

There is a huge cost difference, it costs alot more to run a 3G network than it does a WiMAX/WiFI network. 3G only works at very short distances, where as WiFi/WiMAX technologies work at upto 6/50km's respectively. Less equipment to put in, greater range and at higher speeds. For me, its pretty self explanatory what is going to happen...

As Telstra refuses more and more to do anything about their ageing infrastructure, there more they will lose out.

Exactly what the workers and unions have been saying for years.

It's the same thing again and again. Highly skilled, knowledgeable technical people are ignored (or sacked) by know-all managers and CEO's. Then the inevitable happens and those few left that know what they are doing try and patch it all up while management and CEO's make excuses for their own mistakes.

Who was right? Technical people were right as they generally are. They focus on what needs to be done for the long term, not how to prop up the share price for the next few months as management does.

Who was wrong? Management (as usual) putting the short term ahead of the long term.

It's always the same, management ideas come about, fail and then disappear. Then in comes a new management idea, it fails and disappears. Meanwhile the technical people keep the company, and the country, running.

Needless to say, simply doing more of the same isn't going to fix anything. :2twocents

After this latest fiasco I hope those investigating the "market disclosure" aspect also check to see which, if any, family trusts, family related co's, etc, managed to fortuitously sell out after the Gov. got an early look at the real state of TLS. I think that maybe one late R.R. may be laughing. :rolleyes:

Sheesh!! just watched Kerry Obrien grilling John Howard over tls ......

Howard correct on the most important piece..... They the government dont run Telstra!!!
Telstra Runs Telstra.....

And no wonder the govt want out!!

Be interesting to see what ACIC turns up.......Hmmnnnn :eek:


Arrwell interesting times... Im now cranky i didnt short the sucker ;)

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200509/s1459502.htm
http://www.abc.net.au/news/australia/tas/northtas/200509/s1459081.htm

Looks like it could be bye, bye Telstra if this communications over power lines project is a goer. Just won't need their infrastructure (apart from mobiles which is highly competitive) anymore. :2twocents

And to think that those who are ultimately responsible for Telstra's lack of technical leadership and see selling it as the answer to everything also thought selling Aurora and Hydro Tasmania would be a good idea. Hmm... they don't seem to keen on anything scientific! Why would anyone want to sell off something that produces 60% of Australia's renewable electricity, is into hydrogen, broadband for the masses and even changes the weather (to make it rain more - another thing the other states ought to be looking at instead of water restrictions etc.). These "privatisation" people just don't seem able to think about the future.

Plenty of twists and turns on this stock.
Divi 26th Sept.

Watch TLS go today, should put on 1 or 2% now that it is over the line. All focus will be on T3 and building shareholder value.

Telstra is getting sold down heavily today. At the moment it's at $4.10, down almost 5% and looking very weak. Went ex-div today, so obviously that's a factor.

Apart from that, the only news released this morning was this:

ELECTRONIC LODGEMENT

Dear Sir or Madam

Employment contract of CEO

On 9 June 2005 Telstra entered into and released to the market an employment contract appointing Sol Trujillo as Chief Executive Officer with effect from 1 July 2005. It has been drawn to Telstra’s attention that clause 8.8 of the contract, relating to termination of the contract in the most unlikely event of a takeover of Telstra, is inconsistent with ASX Listing Rule 10.18. The inconsistency was inadvertent. Mr Trujillo has agreed to waive his rights under clause 8.8 to ensure that Telstra is in compliance with the Listing Rules.
If it stays stuck in this downtrend it looks like it might test its all time low around $3.90-$4.00 in the near future. Not looking good.

I agree Joe, latest predictions from many brokers agree too.

I agree. Already TLS is testing the $4-25 level and the volume chart suggests that the spike in volume has been people off loading the stock. I suspect that the downward trend will continue and will not be surprised if TLS tests the $4-00 mark. In recent times they have had more ups and downs than a Roller Coaster Ride at Lunar Park! I did an analysis of their chart around March with my Business Class when we were doing Financial Planning. Using any form of analysis, you wouldn't have gone near TLS then (or now)! The recent chart is attached.

Does anyone have any quality info on the chances of them continuing with the div payments? The engineers seem to say they should be using the money for new infrastructure while the mums and dads only want the divs. No divs in future and this'll drop like a brick. Looks like the US boss doesn't really care much for what John Howard thinks.

TLS) Telstra’s share slide
26-Sep

Telstra shares have suffered a major slide in value after the shares went ex-dividend today.

At 1245 AEST Telstra shares had fallen 4.6 percent or 19 cents to $ 4.11 in morning trading.

Analysts are expecting the price to fall even lower, with some predicting the shares could finish at below $ 4.00 by then end of the week.

The value of the shares have plummeted due to a 14 cent dividend payed out to investors today.

Shares fell last week after Telstra CEO Sol Trujillo issued a profit warning, blaming regulatory restrictions imposed by the federal government and a drop in fixed line and mobile revenue.

The profit warning sparked a massive sell-off in Telstra shares and sent the stock to a two-year low of $4.26, having fallen from $5.20 on July 1, Mr Trujillo's first day in the office.

A lot of buying support yesterday but it looks like this may have been people covering their shorts. Alot of volume was settled overnight @ 5.36.

Very nice for some.

A lot of buying support yesterday but it looks like this may have been people covering their shorts. Alot of volume was settled overnight @ 5.36.

Very nice for some.
Option expiry yesterday and most of the overnight volume was due exercise of puts which explains the trades going through at higher prices. Yes, it's been a good run for the put holders!

According to Huntley's Telstra has: Current Assets $6177m and Current Liabilities $6382m. Using a basic liquidity ratio (current ratio) derived by using the formula CA/CL that would mean:

6177/6382
= 0.97:1 (rounded)

Simply put, for every 97c of Assets, it has $1 of debt. Interestingly the same formula is used to calculate a Working Capital Ratio. This means that, if Huntley's report is correct, Telstra has a short fall in its Working Capital. In dollars this is calculated out as CA-CL which would mean:

$6177m-$6382m
= -$205m

The attached Huntley's Report is dated 2 October 2005. Interestingly, Telstra had a similar set of figures back in March! Caveat Emptor!

Anyone wondering where TLS will acheive growth only need to read this article.

Foxtel now has 1.2 million subscribers at an avarage of $100/month this is equivalent to $ 120 000 000/ month in subscriber income, alone. In addition to subscriber income Foxtel is now attracting substantial advertising income.

Foxtel is set to dwarf the free to air stations, if not already.

By relaxing the cross media ownership laws the government will also pve the way for TLS to make more media aquisitions ie. Fairfax & Ten are both potential targets.

FYI


Pay TV gives thanks to football fever
By David Dale
October 17, 2005
Page Tools

As it celebrates its 10th birthday, the pay television industry is boasting that its total viewing audience has risen by 20 per cent over the past 12 months and that a quarter of Australian homes are subscribers.

However, a closer look at the way Australians actually use pay TV suggests the growth is almost entirely based on the nation's passion for all codes of football: all of the 20 most watched programs on pay TV this year have been NRL matches.

The Cowboys versus the Sharks drew an audience of 331,000 and the Bulldogs versus the Rabbitohs drew 325,000.

The areas where pay TV was supposed to attract viewers, like children's programming, recent movies and nostalgia, lost viewers between 2004 and 2005. (An exception was The Simpsons interactive, which was the most-watched non-sport program in 2005.)

The Disney channel, for example, lost 13 per cent of its average audience; Showtime lost 20 per cent; and TV1's audience fell by 9 per cent.

These losses were offset by big audience gains for sport and news: Fox Footy's audience was up by 37 per cent, Fox Sports 1's rose by 23 per cent, and Sky News gained 35 per cent.

The average total audience for all pay tv stations between 6am and midnight in the first nine months of this year was 372,000; the figure for the corresponding period last year was 310,500.

Foxtel claims to have 1.2 million subscribers and Austar claims 500,000. This means about 25 per cent of Australian homes are receiving more than 40 pay TV stations by cable or by satellite.

In September, pay TV's share of viewers, at 17.2 per cent, was the highest it has ever been.

Anthony Fitzgerald, the chief executive of the pay TV lobby group, Multi Channel Network, said the figures showed "the momentum continues to build for subscription television".

"This highlights the growing appeal of STV's [subscription television's] broad program offering, and the fact that peak television ratings are driven by more than sporting special events," he said.

However, the "broad program offering" is not what seems to be attracting most new viewers.

The pay TV stations with the biggest audience growth this year were Fox Sports 1, Fox Sports 2, Fox Footy, Sky News, UKTV, National Geographic, MTV, Hallmark and Fox Classics.

The stations with the biggest audience losses were the Disney Channel, the Cartoon Network, Channel V, the Comedy Channel, Arena, Fox 8, the History Channel, Max, Movie Extra, Showtime, Movie One and TV1.

Correct me if im wrong, but Foxtel is only half owned by Telstra is it not?
thats leaving $60,000,000 a month already, plus advertising costs, plus infrastructure costs, plus maintanance, etc....
Sure they will still make a nice sum from it, but how much was their original outlay for foxtel?
In my opinion, Telstra is a dinosaur waiting to die out. The extinction is already in the process, just give it a few more years and it'll have had it.

Besides didn't anyone see that show on ABC last nite?, the world is going to end in 20 years, :).

Hi El ninjo,

Consider the value to TLS and the other sharholders if they were to spin Foxtel off and list it seperatly.

In addtion to Foxtel consider Sensis as another seperate listed entity brokers have placed a valuation on Sensis of $ 10 billion.

Over the next few months we are going to be made very aware of the value there is in the Telstra assets and it is alot more complex then a few copper wires.

This bohemoth needs to be pointed in the right direction, hopefully with the T3 as motivation this is going to happen.

P.S. I missed the ABC last night, wasn't the world supposed to end in 1984 ?

What are everyones thoughts on telstra, its seems to be a little unpredictable lately. I'm guessing 4.50 short term, but 3.50 long term.

I think of AMP and its big crash when i think of TLS i can remember saying to my mife when they bottomed hey they would be a great buy but because of the once bitten twice shy rule have never really bothered with them could well be the same for TLS. still a long way to go before people will haqve confidence in them imho

I am certain that the eagerly awaited strategic review, soon to be delivered by Telstra will be very pleasing to the market and I very much doubt that you will see Telstra at these levels again.







-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Disclaimer: I do not hold TLS. I have lost loads of money and anyone who pays any attention to anything I say or post probably will as well.

TLS has been in jeopardy for some time but it seems that its settled down now. The charts seem to have bottomed out and starting the turn around now. What's your views on this dog? Has the storm finally ended? Or should we wait till the privatisation is fully complete before the outlook can be painted?

TLS has been in jeopardy for some time but it seems that its settled down now. The charts seem to have bottomed out and starting the turn around now. What's your views on this dog? Has the storm finally ended? Or should we wait till the privatisation is fully complete before the outlook can be painted?

All eyes will be on the Strategic Review, due to be delivered by Sol next week (I think it's next week, you need to check). If the market likes what it hears you "may" see the SP spike and start heading towards the government's price target for T3 ($5.25)

I currently do not hold TLS

TLS will deliver it's long awaited strategic review. I have no doubt that they will be saying all the right things, which "should" lead to a bit of a spike.

Watching with interest :)

Don't write off Telstra just yet!

I think they did say all the right things yesterday - not too much bull**** and they bit the bullet on hard decisions.

Its got a hard and long road ahead but imo TLS will come good in the long term.

There seems to be support at about $4.00.

With the 28c dividend that equates to 7% yield (better than the banks).

I think they have learnt from other national telcos in the same position (market loss) and are going to slowly build Telstra back up. Will be a while before it gets to $5.40 though.

Foxtel now has 1.2 million subscribers at an avarage of $100/month this is equivalent to $ 120 000 000/ month in subscriber income, alone.

Income.......NOT PROFIT

they dont get all those channels for free ya know! In fact I bet they are probably just clearing a profit.

Telstra is a prime example of what happens when the government is 'holding your hand' Telstra has been 'babied' for years, the sooner it grows up and takes responsibility and supports itself the better.

This is merely an observation and opinion.

Cheers
Happytrader

3.88 close today, I've heard analysts saying it'll head to 3.75. I dunno, but if it starts going below 3.75 I'd say thats a good buy. If it hit 3.60 or 3.50 I'd buy some :)

Don't write off Telstra just yet!

With the 28c dividend that equates to 7% yield (better than the banks).


But what if they decide to lower it or not pay it or reduce franking or do something along those lines, then is it worth holding? Also, we like to think that big companies never die (even if it's partly govt owned) but it could just go lower and wallow for a while, your money could be doing more elsewhere (eg in an uptrending stock with a good fully franked div yield).

Just my thoughts. Currently around the recently made all time low.

i agree with dutchie, the fact that optus and co still require the protection of the accc after approx 17 years is a sure sign that they have failed. if regulators are removed/restricted by gov and telstra is allowed to actually compete with them freely i believe they will disappear. they have had a lot of time to pick the eyes out of tls business without the disadvantages associated with cross subsidies and still they (not telstra) require protection.
a dividend can be increased as well as decreased with an announcement.
perhaps this gov won't(remove/restrict) but small shareholders and country people vote.
cu tricky

....a dividend can be increased as well as decreased with an announcement.
perhaps this gov won't(remove/restrict) but small shareholders and country people vote.
cu tricky

The telstra crew do an awesome job out here. I know because the phone lines are shot and I always need someone to come fix them. They are also replacing the old one with a nice fibre optic cable. Theyve won a vote if anything here, not that I hold TLS though....

An article in yesterdays media Telstra shares sink deeper (http://finance.news.com.au/story/0,10166,17403420-462,00.html)

Its the last couple of paragraphs of a poll that is interesting.

Its the last couple of paragraphs of a poll that is interesting.

I thought that T3 was going to be targeted at mostly institutional investors anyway, so mum and dad investors that read news.com.au probably don't reflect the real opinion of the market.

But who knows? I'm sure everyone is just waiting for the deadline to roll around for the T3 sale to become live and then decisions will be made then whether to postpone or change the guidelines on what will be offered.

Of those who intended to participate, 64 per cent said they would only buy T3 shares at prices up to $3 a share.

I tell you what, in the current market if Telstra offered shares @ $3 you would find it hard going to find someone that wouldn't buy them, even though Telstra are looking shaky that is a bargin.

I am sorry to keep going on about WD Gann...
(I normally keep to my own thread.)

He said many years ago that "The fifth year of the decade is the ascension year"

We have never had (so far) a down year in the fifth year of the decade.
2005 1995 1985 etc

Maybe the government advisors know this.

Unfortunately for this year the DOW ended up down.

MIT

TLS up 2.5% today, any news ?

TLS up 2.5% today, any news ?

no news it seems but All Ords, went up, so most stocks generally went up as well?

Hi yippio

I just finished a short term trade on tlsiss warrants and if i waited 2 more days i would have go $600 instead of $180....i think and have noted with tls its main sensitivities are legislative or government and semi gov organisations such as accc heavily weigh on the stock....i never bothered with the stock until it went below $3.90 as i always considered it a risk but when it hit this price and i read the financials that came from the board i was able to determine that for the medium term this would probally be its final low.

But there is always a risk, so thts why i only used installment warrants as i was able to use little capital to make a quick gain and if the trade went against me i could sit and wait a while.

:)

Hi folks,

TLS ..... a bounce off 3.60, ahead of some positive
news expected, around 07042006 ..... :)

Other key dates ahead for TLS, may be:

12042006 ..... minor

26042006 ..... significant and positive ... finances???


01052006 ..... minor news???

12052006 ..... significant and negative???

16052006 ..... more negative news???

22052006 ..... 2 cycles here ... positive ... finances???

30052006 ..... minor news ???

Looking ahead, 13-18 October 2006 should bring us
some huge TLS news, though response may be muted
at that time ..... but, sentiment should improve in
November 2006, where we also expect to see the
spotlight focused yet again, on TLS ... ???

happy days

yogi

:)

Lets see what's happening to the stock price when TLS has turn off CDMA and turn on its 3GSM technology operating at 850 MHz.

TLS will start rolling out 850 soon.

I guess at a point of time in future as soon as 850 service is turned on TLS will gain quite a hugh profit..

Dear All,

I am starting to consider telstra, mainly due to its big pond movie via cable or internet which i beleive is going to give it a huge market

whats the best way to use as little capital as possible to invest over about a 18 month period ?

any suggestions appreciated

It's a dog with gigantic flees all over it.

Buy something that's growing, not shrinking.

It's a dog with gigantic flees all over it.

Buy something that's growing, not shrinking.


With so much pessimism on TLS, this makes it a great contrarian trade for the long haul.

Buy good stoxx that nobody else wants, otherwise somebody else will!!!

cheers

Contrarian, not massachist! :banghead:

Must admit though, I keep on looking at it, thinking 'surely this can not go down any more!' They make billions!!!!!! :confused:

But, then I have a bit more of a think about it, and look at the leadership group and, well, I just don't trust men with moustaches. :eek:

The stock has to go back to $5 for me to be square. I bought it all the way down, down, down, thinking there was a bottom. :(

Contrarian, not massachist! :banghead:

Must admit though, I keep on looking at it, thinking 'surely this can not go down any more!' They make billions!!!!!! :confused:

But, then I have a bit more of a think about it, and look at the leadership group and, well, I just don't trust men with moustaches. :eek:

The stock has to go back to $5 for me to be square. I bought it all the way down, down, down, thinking there was a bottom. :(

If you bought it all the way down, then what was your entry strategy or quantified your buying decision?, beside averaging down? relying on economic and company fundementals will definately get you burned.

To be honest with you I bought this stock at $3.64, three weeks ago. Did not even look at the fundementals or announcements. Initially in fact, I did not even know which company it was!! The buying decision was initially based on chart patterns. The chart is showing that this particular stock was churning and it's bear market is about to end or has ended based on elliott waves and cyclic analysis(Hurst doinancy envelopes) Long term momentum is slowly changing upward.
The second criteria was based on sentiment. As I said to you before, you would be hard pressed to find a bull for this stock at present with negativity and all the hype in resources sector. The perfect setup for a buy as pessimism is as low as it can get. Five years ago when gold was trading at $254, the pessimsism on gold was unbeleivable. Financial magazines repeatedly posted stories of gold having no future in the technological world we live, in stating that it had no commercial value. That it was financial relic with no hope.You were hard pressed to find a bull among people. (similiar to the US Dollar in Dec of 2004 before it rallied)This was the perfect buy. I bought physical gold back then and liquidated 3 weeks ago,a little early to be honest but who's perfect.Now everyone wants to own gold, we are at the other extreme of the spectrum.

Another factor for TLS: The rally this stock had 3 weeks ago from $3.64 to $4.02, happened exactly the same time resource stoxx sold off. This tells me that there is rotation going on. The big boys are slowly unloading from resources and the volume is increasing on the down days.
I also like PBB which I think has also ended it's bear. Bought that one at $1.55 using the same criteria as TLS

Well we see how we wil go

Cheers

wavepicker, Your logic and strategy has made a few people very rich. Good work.

The market in the short term may be irrational but eventually all market forces come into play to bring things back to equilibrium.

I think you may have jumped off the resource boom too soon though. The Chindia story is very compelling.

We'll see.

I tell you something, Telstra's WCDMA 2100 services joined with Hutchinson will soon be available in country such as Wollongong..

Where Telstra will be heading for the wireless mobile technology? Finger crossed to have 3G WCDMA 850 to the country as well.

850 will be cost effective and high return. Let's see guys, the time will come..

T.A. tells me that TLS is weak, looks like it's going to test the all-time lows again. but could rebound from here. I bought some in anticipation of a bounce but have the sell trigger ready, the risk-reward ratio looks favourable - a close below $3.60 will be my unhappy exit.

Alan Kohler interviewed three execs from Telstra on the weekend (http://www.mysharetrading.com/2006/06/25/telstra-share-price-concerns-outlook.htm) . Was all mumbo jumbo that was reported already... Nothing groundbreaking.

But it did sound good.

Could be good for long term investors. Nothing too exciting for short term traders.

This company seems so undervalued. This company is a fine example of what market sentiments can do to people. The company thrives like mad but the market just keeps selling and selling. Its had a pretty bad stock price history so no one is game enough to lock their money in this stock. Everyone is unhappy with this stock. Their a 22 billion dollar company, but thier able to make 8 billion dollars a year in free cash from operations. No wonder they give just good dividends.

But then again who noes, maybe the likes of Engin will take over the use of phone lines and thats that for telstra. But then again even after that you still need cable, and who has that yes telstra. haha

CHEN

:)

Hi folks,

TLS ..... will be alert for a period of positive cycles
from the end of July 2006:

28072006 ..... positive cycle - finances???

04082006 ..... significant negative cycle here.

10-18082006 ..... expecting a strong rally here ..... :)

21-22082006 ..... 2 significant and negative cycles???


01-04092006 ..... 2 minor and positive cycles

15092006 ..... minor and positive - finance-related??

19092006 ..... minor news

26082006 ..... minor

Late- October/November looks very positive for TLS,
with another positive period, in early-January 2007.

happy days

yogi

:)

No point in talking up this company, the only thing that is keeping it share price of falling further is its high yield. I have seen few European telco going through this phase in Europe and none of them have gone through without big dommage.
Why then the government is trying to sell its big share if TLS was such a good buy

Chennylee, their dividends come from borrowings not profit so in the long term it is unsustainable. This was widely publicised around the same time as the last dividend payout.

with TLS dividend payouts over the last few years, you need to distinguish between the special dividend it pays and the regular dividend (28c pa). As far as I recall, only the special dividend has been paid from borrowings. However, this special dividend is more than likely to be scrapped. I hold a large share in TLS and I will be holding on to it. There may be difficult times ahead, but IMO the share price has seen bottom. Even without the special dividend, TLS still pays an excellent dividend :2twocents and IMO the share price now holds minimal downward risk.

Yogi tipped a significant negative cycle on 4 Aug, but the sp looks to be recovering a little to me. Could it in fact be heading back above $4.00? Breaking through $3.90 was important.

Yogi tipped a significant negative cycle on 4 Aug, but the sp looks to be recovering a little to me. Could it in fact be heading back above $4.00? Breaking through $3.90 was important.


Where is the love in this share? Why is dangling at $3.50>$3.51????? surely not because of the 'divi' any other share that would perform like TLS ,would have been a candidate for the butchers mincer.

Yogi was right. :(

Just when will this be a bargain??

Will be a big tax rightoff for me this FY!

Yogi was right. :(

Just when will this be a bargain??

Will be a big tax rightoff for me this FY!


From when I last checked, he was tipping a significant up move in August, or did he change his mind?????

From when I last checked, he was tipping a significant up move in August, or did he change his mind?????

LOL, 10-18 Aug was strong rally! Rally down.......

LOL, 10-18 Aug was strong rally! Rally down.......

Was the rally driver Sol Trujillo followed by a possee of mums & dads and Kennas a close third! :screwy:

Just had a read of this tonight .

The company says this is good news but I'm not so sure . The price is already depressed how will dumping alot of shares on th market help .

Are they still looking for a corner stone investor ?
And looking to off load in sept. or october . Not the greatest months either in the share calender
Would those Mums and dads still be willing to invest after seing there own shares drop so Much ?
Just after some feed back :)
Cheers Martin

Once bitten twice shy :(

cheers laurie

I can't see how selling the $8bill really achieves anything.

The conflict of interest they've admitted to will still exist as the balance will be held by the future fund.
Much of the overhang will still exist as they're only selling a portion.

I don't know if its true or not, but I've heard payments will be in installments (now and in 18 months) and punters will be entitled to the full dividend. It makes an already high yielding stock an interesting yield play.

Just had a read of this tonight .

The company says this is good news but I'm not so sure . The price is already depressed how will dumping alot of shares on th market help .

Are they still looking for a corner stone investor ?
And looking to off load in sept. or october . Not the greatest months either in the share calender
Would those Mums and dads still be willing to invest after seing there own shares drop so Much ?
Just after some feed back :)
Cheers Martin

As still a holder from T1 & T2 days, as soon as it hits $4 again, if it ever does, I'm out of TLS. They are only guaranteeing 12 more months of dividends then they'll chop it.

The Chairman says no more whingeing about the ACCC, but has he got Burgess onside? Big mistake getting expats who no nothing about Aus business to run the company.

Regards. YN

I can't see how selling the $8bill really achieves anything.

The conflict of interest they've admitted to will still exist as the balance will be held by the future fund.
Much of the overhang will still exist as they're only selling a portion.

I don't know if its true or not, but I've heard payments will be in installments (now and in 18 months) and punters will be entitled to the full dividend. It makes an already high yielding stock an interesting yield play.

What you heard is correct, doctorj. Yes to installments and yes to the full dividend. I guess they had to provide some incentive. I won't exactly be champing at the bit to buy any!

Julia

As still a holder from T1 & T2 days, as soon as it hits $4 again, if it ever does, I'm out of TLS. They are only guaranteeing 12 more months of dividends then they'll chop it.

The Chairman says no more whingeing about the ACCC, but has he got Burgess onside? Big mistake getting expats who no nothing about Aus business to run the company.

Regards. YN

if they chop dividend, its hardly worth anything, imo the only thing holding them up is the franked dividend

thx

MS

the interesting thing now is what price the 1st instalment ?

under half price ($1.70) and the mugs will stampede the door.

there's also talk of offering T2 shareholders a 20% discount off the issue price. not that many T2 holders would consider it imo. i received some as a gift - someone really hated me! :)

for me it would be totally dependent on a change to industry regulation...and then whether there's enough fire (and cash) in the belly to take on optus etc in an infrastructure rollout (fttn, wireless) race.

i used to love this company back in it's $9 days.

News update on the Telstra situation:

The Federal Government will sell almost half of its remaining stake in Telstra later this year, parking the rest of the shares in the Future Fund.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/telstra-will-be-sold-pm/2006/08/25/1156012731231.html?page=fullpage#contentSwap1

Telstra shares may fall to new lows and there's unlikely to be a rush to buy more shares in the next sale, brokers say.

Brokers and the nation's peak shareholders' group say the federal government's decision to sell part of its remaining stake in Australia's largest telco is not the best outcome for investors.
http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/telstra-shares-may-fall-to-new-lows-say-brokers/2006/08/25/1156012735812.html

Some very interesting developments...
I wonder how the market will react to it on Monday?

I was invited to a Focus group to discuss an 'undisclosed' future share sale and how this was to be marketed to the general public a couple of months ago!

Guess what, it was T3! They had a rather unusual advertising campaign designed, focussing very heavily on SMS texting as a means of promotion. In the focus group we thought that this meant they were targetting younger people as a market for purchase, as us oldies might use SMS but we arent exactly hooked on it. But some of the messages they were using were really stupid - as if anyone (old or young) would text to another person something like:
"hey, remember the T3 application closes soon. Love Sally XXX"

There was some discussion about discounts too, but those details were sworn to secrecy! :sly:

But obviously none of that might ever come to fruition, so who knows what will eventuate!

Some of the focus group were very naiive to shares, and the language the advertisers were testing was just way too complicated for the 'mum and dad' investors. Things like "declared dividend" :confused: - why not just say dividend?

Most of them didnt have a clue what this meant!

But interestingly enough, they were actually considering looking to purchase if the shares were ever released!

Will be interesting to see how the advertising unfolds!

do you believe it would be a buy if they sold it off???

no; they really need insto support if they want to sell it; retail investors they can forget about. how many investors did t2 have? maybe 10,000, well u can rule them out from getting burnt twice

they reckon $2 first instalment with 28c div and then the balance in 2 years. sounds familiar? YES, t2 was also the same structure but that didnt help the price. and plus look at the sharemarket; we have been bearish since may, and they say stocks with yield outperform others; well unfortunately tls hit its all-time low $3.43 this last week

They had a rather unusual advertising campaign designed, focussing very heavily on SMS texting as a means of promotion
Sheesh... talk about spam.

Why don't they just give the shares away in Weetbix packets. At least they'd be priced about right then, and recipients would at least get something of value from the Weetbix...

GP

Sheesh... talk about spam.

Why don't they just give the shares away in Weetbix packets. At least they'd be priced about right then, and recipients would at least get something of value from the Weetbix...

GP
Sell them c/- Kellogs, and on the back you can cut out your own cardboard cornflakes.
Would be great to have a crystal ball here. Surely the future of phone companies involves megabucks. One day TLS will come good. Question is, I guess, when, and who is prepared to wait that long. When? - well sometime after the Govt bites the bullet and releases the balance from Fort Knox. And TLS stands on its own two feet, no more apron strings.
Surely this partial sale T3 thing is just a political thing to make sure there is no going back.

T3 in Oct/Nov.

$2.00 first up and $1.40 further on.

With the dividend artificially set high, could be worth having in the short term.

no; they really need insto support if they want to sell it; retail investors they can forget about. how many investors did t2 have? maybe 10,000, well u can rule them out from getting burnt twice

they reckon $2 first instalment with 28c div and then the balance in 2 years. sounds familiar? YES, t2 was also the same structure but that didnt help the price. and plus look at the sharemarket; we have been bearish since may, and they say stocks with yield outperform others; well unfortunately tls hit its all-time low $3.43 this last week

Hi Nizar,

TLS hit all time low last week that was correct. But the fall early last week was in some part also due to it going ex dividend 14c. During the large falls of the months of May-June, TLS actually hung in there by managing to move sideways. But then again what you would expect? This stock has been hammered over the last 6 years. The rate of change of price has to slow at some time??

Actually when you look at the broader market, it has also done bugger all since May as well??

Cheers

T3 whats your thoughts?

From ABC, September 20, 2006
Doubt cast on Trujillo's track record

Serious questions have been raised about the competency of Telstra boss, Sol Trujillo, during his time as the chief executive officer of US West - one of America's biggest telephone companies.
Mr Trujillo has been heavily criticised on the SBS's Dateline program for failing to deliver basic services while in the US West job, which he held prior to his appointment in Australia.
US West was investigated by a telecommunications commission and ordered to refund $11 million to customers.
Despite failing to deliver basic telephone services, Mr Trujillo was paid out more than $US72 million when he left the company.
He was given a further $US100 million in shares.
Senior Telstra executive Phil Burgess has defended Mr Trujillo, saying that government regulation is to blame for Mr Trujillo's past record and for Telstra's current woes.
"Against the policy of the Government, against the policy of the Labor Party, against the policy of the Liberal Party, we have a rogue regulator here which is going down a path which is different from the Government, which says there should be a national uniform price," he said.
Mr Trujillo declined to be interviewed for the Dateline story.



Hard to understand the reason why he was hired, but I must assume that at least he was the best for the job from shortlist of candidates.

Anyone like to give their opinions on Telstra as a potential shorting opportunity in light of the recent bad publicity.I have been thinking of shorting it but it just seems to keep going up despite the negative media it is getting.Confused

Anyone like to give their opinions on Telstra as a potential shorting opportunity in light of the recent bad publicity.I have been thinking of shorting it but it just seems to keep going up despite the negative media it is getting.Confused

TLS has been getting indifferent to bad publicity for several years now. Maybe it's a case of what goes down has to go up eventually, though it's hardly setting the world on fire. regards YN

Anyone like to give their opinions on Telstra as a potential shorting opportunity in light of the recent bad publicity.I have been thinking of shorting it but it just seems to keep going up despite the negative media it is getting.Confused

What a great contrarian play

extreme pessimism within 95% of the crowd can only indicate one thing, that this downtrend has either finished or is very close to finishing.

I think bears looking to go short will suffer a surprising dissapointment.

Appears to be building up a slow fan reversal pattern.

Could be looking to buy around these levels shortly.

GP

... slow fan reversal pattern...GP
GP I appreciate that you know a heap more about this that I, but... another way to look at it....if they put the fan in reverse ... you get hit twice ;) :fan
Any guesses what price the govt will go down to to ensure than the next issue doesnt burn anyone. In which case current shares will go down as well. :2twocents what a predicament for the govt.

I appreciate that you know a heap more about this that I
A very risky assumption... :D

GP

Waiting for a push through $4.10ish to be in. Again.

Institution buy drive the price up in recent days..Maybe they want to hedge their bet as they may have short the Telstra and worry the price will push up
once T3 are up for grab as 28 cents div on a $2 first installment is very attractive :)
I think this dog will have its day long term buy for me

Telstra Webcast out now: http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/investor/presentationsevent.cfm?ObjectID=1163#webcasts

I requested a copy of the prospectus today... But unsure as to what I will do from here.

On a totally different note, I was on the train home the other day and was very surprised to overhear a Telstra employee freely talking to a stranger about the different levels of managers there are and their roles. He said he worked at the head office in the Melbourne CBD and proceeded to talk about the kind of access these managers had in terms of which levels they could enter - he even spoke about what departments were contained on these levels. This is probably not illegal but I was just shocked to see this employee being so open to someone he just met. (People around us had no choice but to listen, as this person was speaking very loud!)

When asked about whether the public should buy into T3, he was all for it (as you would expect), giving nothing but positives that the company would achieve and then going on to give a two year price target of $15 to $18!! Seriously...

TLS has been really interesting. The stock has seen the subject of so much negativity, that pessimism among investors is at an all time high. Just a month ago(with prices at all time lows) the Herald Sun conducted a poll among mums and dads as to whether they would be buying into T3. The crowd gave an overwhelming no vote of 82.3%, convinced that the trend was down and the future bleak. My point here?

WHEN EVERYONE THINKS ALIKE EVERYONE IS LIKELY TO BE WRONG

Although it takes balls to do it, especially since it goes deeply against what the crowd is thinking, the art of contrary thinking consists in training your mind to ruminate directions opposite to general opinions; but weigh your conclusions in light of current events and manifestations of human behavior.

One of the 1st things to understand about markets and how and why they move is that: What seems logical is usually what will not happen.

I'm surprised that there isn't a lot of discussion on TLS today. I am interested in hearing comments on the offer ????

I'm surprised that there isn't a lot of discussion on TLS today. I am interested in hearing comments on the offer ????

Hi Nioka,

Well, I believe the T3 offer is an interesting proposition. I will look at the prospect in more detail and probably will buy some shares in it.

WBII

I was just on ninemsn, they have a poll " Will you buy T3 shares?"
Yes...4339
No...29596

What people vote do not translate to what people will/will not buy
People just need to look at TLS number, add some risk factor into it
and see if the price justify the purchase.

TLS is a massive and stable company so you wont see them increase their earning by 50% any time soon, more like a few percent going into the next couple of years. If their transformation process is working, ie compensate losing revenue on copper line with 3G, data and broadband then TLS is definitely a winner going forward but if the transformation doesnt work out then there is a risk you wont get your dividend and the share price may drop further.

Pick your risk level and decide whether or not to go or not to go with T3.

and the guy talking about Telstra going to 15 bucks in the next few years.....hmm just highly speculative talk and I leave it at that.

I don't know if any of you have noticed one of the ads in the top right of the forum window... The one from 'The Intelligent Investor' which starts off by saying 'Get your FREE special T3 Report now'.

At first I thought it would be worth getting to see what reasons it spells out for investing in the offer. But, a click on the ad reveals that the report is actually titled ‘5 Better Buys Than Telstra’!

I wonder what Mr. Trujillo and his Amigos would think of it...

I was just on ninemsn, they have a poll " Will you buy T3 shares?"
Yes...4339
No...29596

This is the beauty about T3 as less people buy, the best (lower) price that people who is buying will have to pay.

So if I am buying I want everyone else out of there ;)

WBII

Due to its brilliant performance, my portfolio has become underweight in Telstra over the last few years! Guess I'll put in for a top up in T3.

Despite goverment regulation, their must be some money to be made in owning the pipes, even if Skype and the like are going to take the traditional revenue sources. And I'll take a punt that Telstra can get its act together and find a way to take a leading part in the new technology changes.

Ferret

Anyone got a BARGEPOLE.....so I can say "I still won't touch it"...better stuf than this circus about....totaly embarrasing to even think about goin' here...

Just had a few seconds to spare.....Freaks.....LOL

TLS has been really interesting. The stock has seen the subject of so much negativity, that pessimism among investors is at an all time high. Just a month ago(with prices at all time lows) the Herald Sun conducted a poll among mums and dads as to whether they would be buying into T3. The crowd gave an overwhelming no vote of 82.3%, convinced that the trend was down and the future bleak. My point here?

WHEN EVERYONE THINKS ALIKE EVERYONE IS LIKELY TO BE WRONG

Although it takes balls to do it, especially since it goes deeply against what the crowd is thinking, the art of contrary thinking consists in training your mind to ruminate directions opposite to general opinions; but weigh your conclusions in light of current events and manifestations of human behavior.

One of the 1st things to understand about markets and how and why they move is that: What seems logical is usually what will not happen.

All good point BUT ..... markets (on average) are very good at predicting the future even when none of the participants themselves may be aware of the "big picture"

http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20031018/bob9.asp


I didn't buy T1 because I was being screwed around by Telstra at the time over an overcharged phone bill. Why own shares in a company you don't want to do business with?

I didn't buy T2 because it was overpriced.

I won't buy T3 because Telstra has major problems with its internal culture (this dates back to their debacle of getting into internet hype at the top of the bubble) and I won't invest in any company in which people are paid more than $1m. I believe management should be kept mean and hungary.

All good point BUT ..... markets (on average) are very good at predicting the future even when none of the participants themselves may be aware of the "big picture"

http://www.sciencenews.org/articles/20031018/bob9.asp


I didn't buy T1 because I was being screwed around by Telstra at the time over an overcharged phone bill. Why own shares in a company you don't want to do business with?

I didn't buy T2 because it was overpriced.

I won't buy T3 because Telstra has major problems with its internal culture (this dates back to their debacle of getting into internet hype at the top of the bubble) and I won't invest in any company in which people are paid more than $1m. I believe management should be kept mean and hungary.
I agree, the market is probably the best barometer of future economic activity. In most cases market activity precedes what happens in the economy, not the other way round as most fundamentalists believe to think.

TLS has been in decline some 6 years and that decline has preceded the upheaval going on in that company. However at some point in time, the market eventually starts to churn and we get a trend change from down to up or up to down. People love to project the current trend into the future. Whether it is up or down.

I have noticed in the past when pessimism/optimism reaches an extreme amongst the crowd, this is usually accompanied with a change in trend. Sometimes a change in primary trend, at other times only a minor trend. That’s not to say that this should be used as a timing tool. It merely suggests that we maybe near a bottom.

When optimism is high what does that mean? It means people already have their $$ invested in a company and are waiting for prices to go up and get them rich. If there is no new $$$$ to go in, then there is only one place prices will go, down.

When pessimism reaches an extreme what does that mean? It means that who ever was gonna sell out, has probably already done so. In that case the “strong hands” will start to do their buying.

Re employees being paid more than $1M. I agree, seems to be quite common in large companies however.

I'm going to invest some money into the float.

I'm not going to put the whole of my life savings on it.

We'll see where it goes...

Put it under my "long term speculative portfolio + cashflow" (if they keep their promise with the dividend)

I'm having a look at the prospectus atm. No kidding, there are 7 full pages on 'Risk factors'!! :eek:

I guess it means that if T3 turns out to be as bad an investment in the long run as the first two, investors only have themselves to blame.

I'm going to invest some money into the float.

I'm not going to put the whole of my life savings on it.

We'll see where it goes...

Put it under my "long term speculative portfolio + cashflow" (if they keep their promise with the dividend)

All the best with it TP,
I wont be participating myself. I can see much better investment opportunities at the moment.

it may not be like "Poseidon" or AUM (now CDU),
but my mother likes it and my grandmother is buying in T3,
so it must be good!! ;) ....LOL

On a technical perspective, if you owned this share, would you say now was a good time to sell??

On a technical perspective, if you owned this share, would you say now was a good time to sell??

Just thought I'd guess for the sake of theory....there could be any number of choices for an exit depending on your trading plan, for those long and just using some trend lines and swing patterns- break of last trendline or break of last major pivot low (start of last trendline), break of prior all time high (peak at middle of chart), break of minor pivot high, break of previous horizontal resistance line (at about halfway down last trendline), on failure to make new highs within 30 days etc etc.

Note there are no price markers and we don't know if this is intraday or daily or weekly and whether what the time frame is....but I guess you were probably just trying to make a simple point Kauri!

IMO telstra is SH!T so is the SP as it has been for the last how many years. As significantly cheaper alternatives to phone calls such as VOIP, internet etc. the more worse telstra will be in years to come. Why dont they start by closing down india or iraqi pakistan or wherever call centers they have and start hiring australians that actually know what the hell they are doing. so many people are crapped off by telstra already so goodluck anyone who buys.

Just thought I'd guess for the sake of theory....there could be any number of choices for an exit depending on your trading plan, for those long and just using some trend lines and swing patterns- break of last trendline or break of last major pivot low (start of last trendline), break of prior all time high (peak at middle of chart), break of minor pivot high, break of previous horizontal resistance line (at about halfway down last trendline), on failure to make new highs within 30 days etc etc.

Note there are no price markers and we don't know if this is intraday or daily or weekly and whether what the time frame is....but I guess you were probably just trying to make a simple point Kauri!

Just that if there is no obvious technical reason to sell the other chart at this time, then technically there is probably no reason to buy the chart in this post at the moment.
Yes, they are both Telstra, just the first one was inverted.

Have received 3 Telstra prospectus this week for our family - binned the lot .We lost faith with this company when the rocket scientist took off for greener pastures after making his fiasco in China. Lost thousands on T2.

Just that if there is no obvious technical reason to sell the other chart at this time, then technically there is probably no reason to buy the chart in this post at the moment.
Yes, they are both Telstra, just the first one was inverted.
Nice technique Kauri, I find it helps to clear biases sometimes when I'm stuck in a particular mindset. btw, notice the rounding nature of the last few months price action, may spike lower thought in a final flush out- this is from my understanding of rounding bottoms, no real evidence of one yet but we have lots of TA pointers on how to trade them.

I requested a copy of the prospectus today... But unsure as to what I will do from here.

On a totally different note, I was on the train home the other day and was very surprised to overhear a Telstra employee freely talking to a stranger about the different levels of managers there are and their roles. He said he worked at the head office in the Melbourne CBD and proceeded to talk about the kind of access these managers had in terms of which levels they could enter - he even spoke about what departments were contained on these levels. This is probably not illegal but I was just shocked to see this employee being so open to someone he just met. (People around us had no choice but to listen, as this person was speaking very loud!)

When asked about whether the public should buy into T3, he was all for it (as you would expect), giving nothing but positives that the company would achieve and then going on to give a two year price target of $15 to $18!! Seriously...

That's a very interesting anecdote, I have read of marketing companies running ad campaigns involving stooges like this on public transport- they speak loudly on their phones to someone and drop info and phrases that the marketer is trying to get out to the public- like spreading rumours. Maybe the guy was just an idiot, if his judgement is so good that he can predict the share price ($15+ in two years??), how come he's working for a co that's gone south at a rate of knots? If he'd made that call on ASF he'd be banned by now....hehehe.
Thanks for sharing that though.

On a totally different note, I was on the train home the other day and was very surprised to overhear a Telstra employee freely talking to a stranger about the different levels of managers there are and their roles. He said he worked at the head office in the Melbourne CBD and proceeded to talk about the kind of access these managers had in terms of which levels they could enter - he even spoke about what departments were contained on these levels. This is probably not illegal but I was just shocked to see this employee being so open to someone he just met. (People around us had no choice but to listen, as this person was speaking very loud!)

When asked about whether the public should buy into T3, he was all for it (as you would expect), giving nothing but positives that the company would achieve and then going on to give a two year price target of $15 to $18!! Seriously....

Was he by any chance short, grey haired and have bushy eyebrows?? :evilburn:

Would people buy telstra at current prices or subscribe to T3?

I just feel the dividend is far to good to pass up.

What do people think the total T3 share price will be?

Is telstra cheap at current prices?

If dividends are kept up 10 years will see the stock pay for itself...

Would people buy telstra at current prices or subscribe to T3?
I believe people will prefer to subscribe to T3 rather than buying at current prices, I heard that some people are actually selling their shares and buying T3.

I just feel the dividend is far to good to pass up.
The dividend is very good and in contrast to what some people believe I think it will increase next year or after that.

What do people think the total T3 share price will be?
I believe the final price will be $3.50-$3.70

Is telstra cheap at current prices?
I think it is, Telstra has the problem of the influence of the goverment and all that but if you look at the fundamentals it is a monopoly and against that there is no much to do for other companies.

I have seen comments here about VOIP, Vodafone etc etc and how this is going to end Telstra, that people have no idea about Telcos at all. I'll just give you an example, Broadband, people are saying I am not taking Telstra Broadband anymore I am moveing to ISP XX, it is OK but ISP XX has to pay Telstra every month for the line that goes to your place, in most cases we are talking about 30%-40% of the price charge but the ISP to you. I can go on and on about this...

If dividends are kept up 10 years will see the stock pay for itself...

Not only that, if Telstra anytime decides to demerge some of their businesses I believe T3 will be paid by itself. I'll give you this Telstra book price currently is $2.10.

But at the same time I'll be more than happy if no many people buy into T3.

WBII

I believe people will prefer to subscribe to T3 rather than buying at current prices, I heard that some people are actually selling their shares and buying T3.


The dividend is very good and in contrast to what some people believe I think it will increase next year or after that.


I believe the final price will be $3.50-$3.70


I think it is, Telstra has the problem of the influence of the goverment and all that but if you look at the fundamentals it is a monopoly and against that there is no much to do for other companies.

I have seen comments here about VOIP, Vodafone etc etc and how this is going to end Telstra, that people have no idea about Telcos at all. I'll just give you an example, Broadband, people are saying I am not taking Telstra Broadband anymore I am moveing to ISP XX, it is OK but ISP XX has to pay Telstra every month for the line that goes to your place, in most cases we are talking about 30%-40% of the price charge but the ISP to you. I can go on and on about this...

Not only that, if Telstra anytime decides to demerge some of their businesses I believe T3 will be paid by itself. I'll give you this Telstra book price currently is $2.10.

But at the same time I'll be more than happy if no many people buy into T3.

WBII

WBII, would you be able to flesh out some of the reasoning behind your initial comments in your last post please? While I understand that these are merely your opinions it would be helpful if you could reveal the basis of your reasoning, while you have done this for your latter statements a bit more detail in your initial statements would be useful. Thank you.

WBII, would you be able to flesh out some of the reasoning behind your initial comments in your last post please? While I understand that these are merely your opinions it would be helpful if you could reveal the basis of your reasoning, while you have done this for your latter statements a bit more detail in your initial statements would be useful. Thank you.

Hi RichKid,

Sure, no problem:

****The dividend is very good and in contrast to what some people believe I think it will increase next year or after that.

14% for the $2 you pay today (excluding final instalment) I believe is higher that any other share on offer at the moment, who pays more than that?

(0.14 + 0.14) / $2 = 14% Franked 100% @ 30%, so you are low income you can even get an 18.2% divds

The 28c divds in based on the last paid divd which was 14c, but before that it was 20c twice, there are chances that the divds even increase.


****I believe the final price will be $3.50-$3.70:

Check some articles:
http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,20560016-664,00.html

****I think it is, Telstra has the problem of the influence of the goverment and all that but if you look at the fundamentals it is a monopoly and against that there is no much to do for other companies.

Everyone knows Telstra is a monopoly in many Australian places and in fixed lines, there is no other company that offers copper lines to residences, which means any company installing any service over those lines will pay the toll.

Any more questions Richkid?

WBII

I have applied for 10,000 T3 shares.

i am getting them through margin loan on my bhp shares, and am comfortable that the dividend will cover the interest on the $2 intial payment.

I will have paid the intial installment off in this time, and bhp and rio will be booming. I am firm believer in TLS for the future, and believe that for company that offers such good divs the possibilty of the share price doubling in the next 5-10 years is high, if they get their **** together.

thats my opinion and believe theres still a very rocky road ahead.

Hi RichKid,

Sure, no problem:.............
..........
.........
****I think it is, Telstra has the problem of the influence of the goverment and all that but if you look at the fundamentals it is a monopoly and against that there is no much to do for other companies.

Everyone knows Telstra is a monopoly in many Australian places and in fixed lines, there is no other company that offers copper lines to residences, which means any company installing any service over those lines will pay the toll.

Any more questions Richkid?

WBII

Thanks WB, that's great, I had an idea of what you were saying but I thought it useful to have these issues fleshed out further. In relation to the last point, it's important to remember that the political climate and ACCC intervention in pricing schemes may take something of the monopolistic power away from TLS so perhaps it should not be considered the same as any other monopoly due to the high level of political interest in this market. Just a thought as many people just make assumptions about monopolies when there aren't many true monoplies left these days with true monopolistic power (eg ASX, TOL?, WDC?, AWB?). Besides, how important are these copper lines to TLS over the next decade or so? This is a vexed issue. Will a monopoly in that specific market be of much value in the future?

If you have a look at the commsec website www.comsec.com.au/t3 there is a comparison of alternative leveraged products, I was doing some reading to see if I should buy in myself. Note that comsec is trying to sell you something so take it with a grain of salt. There is another T3 thread on ASF if anyone wants to go into more detail about the prospectus and T3 strategies.

Just a thought as many people just make assumptions about monopolies when there aren't many true monoplies left these days with true monopolistic power (eg ASX, TOL?, WDC?, AWB?). Besides, how important are these copper lines to TLS over the next decade or so? This is a vexed issue. Will a monopoly in that specific market be of much value in the future?



Hi RichKid,

I agree with what you are saying but I also believe that Telstra will keep its current monopoly in copper lines at least for the next 5 to 10 years because basically there is no replacement available for that technology yet. I know there are techs like wireless broadband but that kind of tech will need about 2 or 3 years just to take off from today, in the meantime Telstra will keep generating revenue from them.

Also remember that Telstra is the largest media company in Australia, they offer phone lines, mobiles, Internet Broadband, printing media (sensis, white and yellow pages etc) and TV media (Foxtel), and one of the comments I pickup yesterday from a newspaper is that Telstra could be even interested in fairfax newspapers once all this T3 affair ends and the media reform get on its way.

I believe there is potential in the long run and that even T2 people could benefit from T3, so I am personally applying for T3 because I see this company as a value investment. Telstra sounds like any company that the real Warren Buffett have invested in the past: out-of-favour, low value, monopoly, I'd say good management and opportunities available.

WBII

who thinks telstra will be below $4 in 10 years?

who thinks telstra will be below $4 in 10 years?
As bad as Telstra may be at the moment, I think this is highly unlikely. Telstra is a major player in the telecommunications sector and a well known brand.

Although it would make sense for potential customers to steer clear of Telstra because of the bad media, this is not the case in real life. Telstra continues to see high growth in its internet/broadband division. The cost cutting will not go to waste and should see Telstra come out as a 'leaner and meaner' company.

Telstra is a good long term buy, but if I was to buy, I would buy later down the track. For this company to be below $4 in 5 years (not to mention 10), A LOT of things would have to go really wrong.

I say this, despite not ever owning Telstra shares. I won't be buying any in T3 either.

soo many opinions on telstra.

its good to get different points of view.

With any company majority comes down to management and decision making.

If everyone is heading in the one direction i dont see any reason why things cant turn around. with the right people at the top change is happening.

Due to the mum and dad investors losing big time on telstra over the years its had more bad publicity than most. I am sure if you went through a woodside or a maquarie bank there would be areas that could make them more profitable for shareholders.

I see telstra as a different company now that the board is not government owned.

I just dont see how a company could perform at its best when its run for the people, and not the shareholders.

anyways

i am subscribing.

12000 units please, hope i get em...

12000 units please, hope i get em...
I think you can put them down as being yours already! It would be very interesting if you were to be scaled back.

anyways

i am subscribing.

12000 units please, hope i get em...

Ken... just wondering...

Are you in for the long term growth or are you in for the short term yield?

at 21 years of age i plan on holding them for 5 years plus and beyond.

re-investing the dividends into stocks i find attractive.

bad plan? I believe this is a good place to start, i dont have the time to be a day trader as such or do i want the headaches of investing in property and having a big loan to pay back.

If telstra falls down after the 18 month period i will be buying more again.

telstra is not the only stock in my port folio though.

I've looked at TLS as a long term buy.

The dividends paid out on my T1+T2 shares (1997-current) has been good! Actually a lot better than any other stock I own. Infact, you could say div + current sp has me in the black not red.

T3 incl. discount + free shares and installments adding up to about AUD3.50 has my attention.

The negative is the 15% still owned by the Future fund (obviously the final amount will depend on how much public interest there will be for T3) and what will happen to these shares in 2 yrs time.

Not to mention the ever present ACCC forcing Telstra to surrender it's networks and services to it's competitors for a pittance. Last one I read about was Unwired claiming Telstra was undercutting it!

If Telstra does eventually end up de-merging into a few subsidaries then the prospect of automatically owning shares in these 'spin offs' sounds enticing indeed.

the things are headed the second installment could be $2 or are people buying up now so they can use the stock to margin loan on t3.

BT investments will not let me use the full extent of my margin loan capacity as i am going in the public offer...

TLS up to $4 surely the second installment is not going to be over $2....

TLS up to $4 surely the second installment is not going to be over $2....

Like many of us, I threw my T3 prospectus straight into the bin about a week ago. But on reflection I have just sold my T2 shares at a capital loss, with the attendant CGT advantages, and will take up the T3 offer as soon as the funds are available before Nov 9th.

There seems to be a bit of a turnaround emerging on TLS. Regards YN.

Yeah... TLS has moved about 45 cents +ve since its lows in August...

Is this strong uptrend going to continue?
What is the next resistance/support point?

I've heard that the stock price movement was due to the strong uptake of T3 shares... is this true?

Yeah... TLS has moved about 45 cents +ve since its lows in August...

Is this strong uptrend going to continue?
What is the next resistance/support point?

I've heard that the stock price movement was due to the strong uptake of T3 shares... is this true?
Yes, that's correct. More than half the $8 billion that is being offered has already been accounted for. Nearly half a billion went to Japanese investors and $4 billion was pre-sold to clients of brokers and financial planners. Not only is the high yield attractive, but clients of brokers are using the opportunity to utilise instalment structures. Macquarie has gone a step further and created its own series of instalment products.

I think people are starting to realise that T3 might be worth investing money in (hence the run up in sp recently) and so retail demand in the offer is likely to be pretty strong - at least $5-6 billion easily. This doesn't leave much for institutional investors, who will demand a lot of stock and thus have a big say in the final pricing. Organisers could leave the offer as it is so that T3 will turn out to be a huge success, but it is likely that demand will be very strong that it will be justifiable to sell more stock.

Also, the lack of news about regulation being an impediment and negative comments/media from and surrounding the Telstra executives has helped.

TLS needs to break thru the dble top it has ran into for mine. :banghead:

The reason TLS has been experiencing a huge increase in the last week is because institutions need to show to the goverment that they have been "loyal" to Telstra and that they hold Telstra shares. There are some requirements from the goverment to institutions to show this characteristics in order to get some installment allocations.

Last Monday when the price shot up to almost $5 was because one of the institutions was short in Telstra and bought close to $100m in shares, I think it was $110 and so the rest of institutions did the same to secure T3 installments from the goverment.

Now, what I read is that once these institutions stop buying, the price will go down to the lowest price possible because in that way T3 will be the cheapest possible as well.

Well, this is what I read and saw so let see what happens in the next few weeks.

WBII

is it possible to go short on telstra....

is it possible to go short on telstra....
Yes, you can short sell Telstra with shares and CFDs.

The reason TLS has been experiencing a huge increase in the last week is because institutions need to show to the goverment that they have been "loyal" to Telstra and that they hold Telstra shares. There are some requirements from the goverment to institutions to show this characteristics in order to get some installment allocations.

Last Monday when the price shot up to almost $5 was because one of the institutions was short in Telstra and bought close to $100m in shares, I think it was $110 and so the rest of institutions did the same to secure T3 installments from the goverment.

WBII

The price didn't shoot to $5?!?! You had me excited there for a minute hehehe...

I think you meant $4...

As for the requirements from the government - are these documented somewhere? I don't remember reading about this...

Yes, you can short sell Telstra with shares and CFDs.
And warrants.

With T3 coming up, I think the government will want to see a high price set for the second installment. After that's set, they'll let it go to the dogs :D

GP

Still trying to find the "care factor'........I'll leave to those that do....just here for a look anyway......onya.

Any idea when shares are due to be credited to the account for T allocation ?

Buying the Jan 07 CALL options on this one.

Looking for a quick and dirty reaction to these levels.

does call option mean you think it will go down.

T3 seems to be firing.

has anyone offloaded there TLSCA things.... @ 2.30 or above the $2 issue price or havent the public been allocated shares.

I think the idea with tls is to strip the dividend so the sell off might start after the first div payment or for sure after the second if there is no guarantee of the same level of div or if the share price has not appreciated much

tlsca hit 2.34. i'd be tempted take profits. but holding long.

i got 5750 out if 6000 shares i apllied for.

I need this one to rally to secure a profit. Closed on its low today and Market Depth is not supportive of a rally, on the close.

I will need to close out my position by end DEC 06 so need the price up around 4.00 by then

I need this one to rally to secure a profit. Closed on its low today and Market Depth is not supportive of a rally, on the close.

I will need to close out my position by end DEC 06 so need the price up around 4.00 by then

Dutchy3 ,sorry about my witty comment bought TLS @ 3.59 the other day.........but tell me if it does not reach 4 bucks does that mean your evicted from the caravan park again! Lets hope MBP is your beacon! G'nite ( I sleep onthe park-bench these days!!!!)

Hi 3

Happy to report that the last time I spent too much time on a park bench was in Carins in the 1990's during my mis spent youth. Right at the time of the pilots strike so a good many young backpackers had too much time and nowhere to go ....

Ive already my sell order in the market ... this looks to me as though it could react higher although the sell down on the close today has me on full alert ...

T3 shares are booming....

WHY???

and how much further can they go they are up 48 cents in a month

tempted to take the profits. I only bought for the dividend though.... so i am sticking with that, i guess.


Sol Trujino has made a killing. he bought a **** load of them super mario is killing it.....

now 2.52....


WTF.....

Long term investors might be interested in TLS's current situation. Big rounded bottom appearing and approaching resistcne at $4.00 again. A break through here would be a breakout I reckon. MACD looking very good, about to cross signal line on way up.

(holding - too many! :( )

Quick and dirty reaction back to 4.00ish has seen the JAN 3.94 CALLS improve nicely ... sold down 30% of my position on the close Friday. 4.00 could still prove resistance at this point.

Quick and dirty reaction back to 4.00ish has seen the JAN 3.94 CALLS improve nicely ... sold down 30% of my position on the close Friday. 4.00 could still prove resistance at this point.
No where near confirmed but broken through this am, trading $4.04. This happened a couple of months ago and was quickly shot down, so I'm not getting too excited. Still like the rounded bottom and if it can hold above this, high end technical traders will be jumping all over it.

T3 share price.

Any one taken their profits..?

I said to myself go long term on them...

They are almost 5 grand up for me....

Could the T3 installments get to $3?

I thought $2.50 was high....

I can really see them dropping in the ass still......

If they are $2.70 by friday i am taking the profits and running.

Holding above $4.00.

Could it be the start of the recovery of the telco beheamoth? Probably not, but I'd like to look back at this time and say 'hey - that was it!!!!!!' :D

Technically it's looking good.

Hi kennas

I refer your previous post re Rounding Bottom ... totally agree. I've just closed out a bought JAN 07 3.94 CALL position that I entered some weeks ago and expect that TLS will deliver many such opportunities over the next 12 -18 months. Of all the decent option stocks this one is the most predictable at the moment ...

Has held above $4.00 and hopefully that's the last we see of a number 3 in front of the sp......

Next resistance on the upside at $4.50 and lots of noise between there and Kipps note on his avatar. Is that ramping kipp?? he he :) It's going to take some good news and market conditions to find it's way through there I reckon. Looks like a pretty safe play short term to me. Maybe Phil Burgess can talk his mum into buying some and we'll be ok. When she gets on we know it's going alright!

Has held above $4.00 and hopefully that's the last we see of a number 3 in front of the sp......

Next resistance on the upside at $4.50 and lots of noise between there and Kipps note on his avatar. Is that ramping kipp?? he he :) It's going to take some good news and market conditions to find it's way through there I reckon. Looks like a pretty safe play short term to me. Maybe Phil Burgess can talk his mum into buying some and we'll be ok. When she gets on we know it's going alright!

Share you sentiments kennas. Was bullish this stock 4-6 months ago and trading it numerous long and short as it was base building. I remember opinion poles in the newspapers with regard to this stock and 90% of respondents said they would not buy T3, not to mention the negativity in the mainstream media. Just the sort of pessimism seen at bottoms.

Although long term bullish this stock, I would expect it to continue to base build in the coming months and retest the lows, but not make new lows and have thus sold out my position. Will look at buying on the dips.

Cheers

T3 installments are expected to be one of the best performing blue chip stocks according to the smart investor magazine.

i suppose big dividends would already account for the most of that profit.

if telstra gets to $4.50, what will the T3 installments be... around $2.90?

TLS has just started to break out of a sideways consolidation period after breaking through $4.00 and out of the long term downward trend. Next resistance at $4.50 where I expect it to pause.

For those following TLS, it's been a pleasing ride since bottoming out and then watching it unfold as expected.

Has definately broken that short term resistance at $4.15 ish.

Still not breaking BB on the upside so hasn't run to hard in that department, but Stochastics say it has. For the 'rounded' bottom to continue up to the final target of $5.00, it probably needs a few days of consolidation which I expect to occur around resistance at $4.50......

Going to plan so far, but of course the whole market has been going great so not sure if this is responding to it's own revaluation, or just following the market........

Chart update.

(holding)

Big day for TLS, especially TLSCA. Could be pushing that $4.50 shortly

Yeah, one of the biggest single day gains for some time. Encouraging for long term holders. I bought T2 :banghead: and then kept averaging down - all the way down! I think my average price is $5.00 so I've got a bit to go....luckily my girlfirend used to work for Telstra and she got a whole bunch of T1 which are now in my name consolidated with the rest so it's looking ok now. I'm still not confident in this being a start performer down the track. Looking for an exit, especially if it gets back to my $5 mark. All the best!

I only got in on T3 so I'm looking very good at the moment. I'm not sure of the long term prospects either. Am weighing up whether to wait for the dividend or not, if price keeps pushing up to over $3.00 may just take the profits and run.

I only got in on T3 so I'm looking very good at the moment. I'm not sure of the long term prospects either. Am weighing up whether to wait for the dividend or not, if price keeps pushing up to over $3.00 may just take the profits and run.

I take the the profit and run on T3.. nearly 50% gain, once the dividend is paid and people exercise their warrants and take profit this dog will go back to the Zoo :) .. their earning trend has steadily going downward so there is no justification for this stock to shoot for the star.

Judgment day will be 15 Feb on 1st quarter result to see if they make any in road into the next G stuff if it look bad this dog could be in for another long hard year.

I say keep dancing with T3 but stay close to the exit..and when you spot the first sight of downward movement I head for the exit.

I exit a little bit short at $2.65 and for a moment there it going to $2.60 and I said beauty this dog could head back down further and I can pick it up again to make a quick buck but I was wrong, still pocket 33% so I'm not complaining.

What should T3 shares realistically be priced at?

I am thinking of selling up as telecommunications stocks have had a good run and believe market is due for a correction in these sorts of stocks.

On the other hand the government will be getting a heap back in tax.... so I dont know whats worth doing...

Hold long long term...

or take profits...

Financial bloke from Com Sec said today, analysts expect good results from Telstra at their February meeting next month, hence reason for the price hike.

There must be more to it than what we all know.

Financial bloke from Com Sec said today, analysts expect good results from Telstra at their February meeting next month, hence reason for the price hike.

There must be more to it than what we all know.

Fundamentally speaking how could earnings improve so suddenly on this dog of a stock. The companies margins are still the same unless line rentals have gone up with out me knowing. Sales are probably roughly equivalent but perhaps a little higher due to the bigpond division. The only real area for improvement would come from a restructuring and cost cutting. While Sol has set out to do this it is unlikely he has achieved anything dramatic in such a short timeframe. I may be proven wrong but my feeling is that the company will report earnings similar to their projections. If they end up having this wonderful result I will be wondering where the profit upgrade went to as an ASX announcement and I think ACC might be thinking the same thing. My feeling is that the Sp is being pushed up by the positive sentiment surrounding this stock. I can't help but feel that some further finger burning might be on the way.

Disclaimer: this is not financial advice merely my opinion.

Hi All,

I believe 3 things are happening with this stock:

1) Yield driven funds, TLSCA is expected to pay 14c which at current price is 4.8% + Franked divs = 6.25. This yield is at the top of the table and is above usual yield-stocks like banks. So Imputation funds which are looming these days are just racing to get in.

2) Why people keeps thinking that TLS is only about land lines?, they have more than one revenue stream and remember that even if that one is getting less revenue it will stop where the other ISPs and customers use the service.

3) From the beginning I thought the goverment was giving away TLSCA at these price and that was the main reason to invest in it. TLS book value is $2, so installments were sold at book price.

WBII

I believe 3 things are happening with this stock:

1) Yield driven funds, TLSCA is expected to pay 14c which at current price is 4.8% + Franked divs = 6.25. This yield is at the top of the table and is above usual yield-stocks like banks. So Imputation funds which are looming these days are just racing to get in.


2) Why people keeps thinking that TLS is only about land lines?, they have more than one revenue stream and remember that even if that one is getting less revenue it will stop where the other ISPs and customers use the service.

that where they draw majority of their revenue, a 2% decline in line rental area equivalent to 5-10 on other stream.


3) From the beginning I thought the goverment was giving away TLSCA at these price and that was the main reason to invest in it. TLS book value is $2, so installments were sold at book price.

Where the hell do you get that crazy number, this one coming from comsec (Aspect Huntley Data)

Book Value($) 0.77 0.86 0.80 0.90 1.03 1.10 1.20 1.22 1.20 1.01

Financial bloke from Com Sec said today, analysts expect good results from Telstra at their February meeting next month, hence reason for the price hike.

There must be more to it than what we all know.

Dont forget this 1st/2nd Q maybe good because it's leading up to XMAS sale, next few quarter maybe crab.

What should T3 shares realistically be priced at?

I am thinking of selling up as telecommunications stocks have had a good run and believe market is due for a correction in these sorts of stocks.

On the other hand the government will be getting a heap back in tax.... so I dont know whats worth doing...

Hold long long term...

or take profits...

Tax shouldnt be an issue when you make a big profit...
Imagine this you have 45% gain on TLS, you think the stock is over price and dont sell because you afraid of paying tax.

Stock trade down to previous level then then went back again

had you sell at 45% gain, you pay your tax, pick the stock up again when they are low, you make a decent return.

Hi All,

I believe 3 things are happening with this stock:

1) Yield driven funds, TLSCA is expected to pay 14c which at current price is 4.8% + Franked divs = 6.25. This yield is at the top of the table and is above usual yield-stocks like banks. So Imputation funds which are looming these days are just racing to get in.

2) Why people keeps thinking that TLS is only about land lines?, they have more than one revenue stream and remember that even if that one is getting less revenue it will stop where the other ISPs and customers use the service.

3) From the beginning I thought the goverment was giving away TLSCA at these price and that was the main reason to invest in it. TLS book value is $2, so installments were sold at book price.

WBII

Firstly I don't buy on yield only. I agree that Managed funds may do so and that is their perogative but hardly a reason for me to consider investing in the company.

Secondly I agree that Line Rental isn't the only revenue component but perhaps a large one. Until we know whether this will be fixed under ACC how can you accurately forecast future earnings growth. To me this puts a lot of risk into this stock. Once this issue is resolved I may infact buy into Telstra if the decision is favourable. God knows I may have to offset the increase line charge that could occur if there was no regulation. I can certainly see why WBII you might like this company. It comes across as a monopoly has plenty of free cash flow etc. But to me the unkowns outweigh the positives. Share price is being driven up on greed not a fundamental shift in the companies earnings.

BTW well done to those who bought into T3.

Hey nomore4,

Big day for TLS, especially TLSCA. Could be pushing that $4.50 shortly
Kenna's has also been calling this in for a little while now.. seems there is some support from the insto's/analysts.. Good work fella's

Credit Suisse this week increased its price target for Telstra from $4.78 a share to $5.05.

MMC Asset Management's portfolio manager, Eric Metanomski, agreed the stock had benefited as brokers and institutional investors, who had previously been bearish about its fortunes, had changed their sentiment.

"These sorts of significant moves in stocks tend to occur when there is a fairly significant sentiment change," said Mr Metanomski, whose firm has about 7 per cent of its $600 million in funds under management invested in Telstra.
Full article here.. http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/telstra-in-good-books-with-big-oneday-jump/2007/01/16/1168709754491.html

I like ROE's comment below..

I say keep dancing with T3 but stay close to the exit..and when you spot the first sight of downward movement I head for the exit.
Seems to have shot out of the barriers, I guess it's fairly obvious that there is some good news to be announced that I as a mug am not yet privy to.. :mad: My 'portfolio' is a little TLS heavy at the minute so I will be looking to 'unwind' around the $5 mark if it gets there..

Cheers,

Buster

P.S I Hold..

I think this could be benefiting from funds rejigging their portfolios taking some money out of the resource/materials sector and into yield plays.

I say keep dancing with T3 but stay close to the exit..and when you spot the first sight of downward movement I head for the exit.


I don't think so. There are huge incentives to keep the installments until the end and get the bonus shares which for example for a person that invest $10,000 = 5000 shares means 200 free shares, at current prices that means
200 X 4.38 = $876 or 8.76% return.

Current 50% is a big return, but I will wait and collect the didvs which for the example above will be something like:
14c in March, 14c in Sep, 14c in March/08 = 0.42c
= 5000 * 0.42 = $2100 = 21% before franked divds or
= 5000 * 0.42 = $2100 * 1.3 = $2730 = 27.30% after franked divds.

So in the case that this 50% gain stays, people will get a total return in the top side of
8.76% + 27.30% + 50% = 86.06%

So, I'll take the risk and keep them ;)

WBII

If they end up having this wonderful result I will be wondering where the profit upgrade went to as an ASX announcement and I think ACC might be thinking the same thing.

I heard on the late night news last night that there is speculation that Telstra is going to annouce a profit upgrade shortly. I'm not sure how accurate this is - you can't belive everything you see on TV.

But it maybe some of the driving force behind the increasing sp.

Again I'm fairly new at this game so, don't take my word for it.

TLS rapidy approaching my first price target of $4.50 - perhaps too rapid. Has just gone outside the BB to the up, which puts it as a short term sell. Perhaps this, linked to the $4.50 resistance, might make it pause for a moment. There is going to be lots of static between $4.50 and $5.00 by the look of the chart. There was lots of buying and selling in there in the past, and perhaps some punters will be taking profits (or break evens!)

Interesting to read the theories on why this has run so hard. Could have just been technical buying after the clear break through $4.00, or reweighting of portfolios into 'safer' stocks that won't halve during a commodities led correction perhaps....or, Maybe Sol has changed it around. Perhaps Phil B has talked his Mum into buying some, and she's the cause?

Perhaps Phil B has talked his Mum into buying some, and she's the cause?

Don't forget the cabbie down the street. I had a fella who drove me home from the car group who I get my car serviced with the other day say to me "how about those Telstra shares". It seems even the general punters are keen on TLS.

I heard on the late night news last night that there is speculation that Telstra is going to annouce a profit upgrade shortly. I'm not sure how accurate this is - you can't belive everything you see on TV.

But it maybe some of the driving force behind the increasing sp.
Another reason could be a quote from this mornings paper.

"Rumours of a possible property spin-off of the company's old switching stations also lifted sentiment."

A senior trader at a major European brokerage said: "It could potentially be worth quite a bit because they have 6700 of these properties at about 400 square metres each, scattered throughout Australia."


If thats the case, the Telstra business might be so, so.
But these Telstra properties would be worth squillions.
.