TLS - Telstra Corporation

[UMike]

I don't think so. There are huge incentives to keep the installments until the end and get the bonus shares which for example for a person that invest $10,000 = 5000 shares means 200 free shares, at current prices that means
200 X 4.38 = $876 or 8.76% return.
....
So, I'll take the risk and keep them ;)
WBII
I'm shooting for the bonus shares also. :D

[Ken]

brokers are bullish on Telstra, and thats not such agood thing.

look at BHP when brokers thought they were going to boom.

hows that $35 price target looking....

having said that, the government is making up for the reduced telstra price sale with all the capital gains they are getting.

[ROE]

brokers are bullish on Telstra, and thats not such agood thing.

look at BHP when brokers thought they were going to boom.

hows that $35 price target looking....

having said that, the government is making up for the reduced telstra price sale with all the capital gains they are getting.

The higher they praise the harder they fall, if earning fall below expected 26 cents this year hmm wouldnt imagine the share price.

[Warren Buffet II]

The higher they praise the harder they fall, if earning fall below expected 26 cents this year hmm wouldnt imagine the share price.

I can see you didn't buy any T3 shares and you are bitting yourself for that.
Just let us enjoy the ride for those who did.

In a positive note:
50% reached today. I think we might see another 10c before ex-divds day.

WBII

[ROE]

I can see you didn't buy any T3 shares and you are bitting yourself for that.
Just let us enjoy the ride for those who did.

In a positive note:
50% reached today. I think we might see another 10c before ex-divds day.

WBII

You didnt read my earlier post I bought T3 but sold out already because this baby will drop again and I pick up again for cheap and pocket the profit differences.

[ROE]

any prediction for TLS this week?
North or South?

[kennas]

any prediction for TLS this week?
North or South?Or sideways....

I expect consolidation just under $4.50. Not sure when their market update is due, but I think that will have a significant impact on the company up or down. If Sol delivers an upbeat assessment after talking the company down for so long then it'll be looking very good. This might have been part of their tactics all along. Bag the crap out of it, drive the price down, then talk it up as a turn around story due to the review and changes they put in place..... Cynical kennas. :)

[ROE]

I got a bill today from TLS after disconnecting all services from
Telstra for the last 4 years saying I applied for a suppress number and residential address and charge me $32 for it.

I called them up and said i'm not paying a cent, they pass the bucks back to my provider who I bundle the phone and everything with. I rang them back and said they never do such a thing and any Bill sent out by Telstra is Telstra problem and any charge I incur with my phone line will be bill my my provide and not Telstra

so I rang Telstra again and confront them and again passing the bucks to my provider, at this stage I'm pretty pissed and ask my provider to send me an official letter stating their claims, arm with that information I came back to Telstra and guess what the bastard back down and cancel my charges.

When tactic like this apply to a big business like Telstra, they are in desperate need of a few bucks from their customer to maintain their revenues. (and in the process driven their customers else where and lose future revenues)

I thought I'm the odd one out but I am not a few guys at work has the same problem with different billing matters which they up charge for something they didnt apply for.

Time for me to avoid Telstra shares unless they selling at book value :-)

[Warren Buffet II]

Well, I was with another provider and I passed all my services to Telstra 2 months ago. I got good service and happy with them. ;)

WBII

[ROE]

Guess Investors doesnt like TLS when they take ACCC to court.
Big drop today on T3 today or some smart investor take their profit and buy back when it's at bargain basement price.

[Warren Buffet II]

This is a comment from an interview by Alan Kohler to Ivor Ries, telco analyst with EL & C Baillieu, www.eurekareport.com.au

So you’re saying that Telstra is a target for a private equity takeover?

Most definitely, yes. I’d imagine that most of the world’s big private equity houses would be doing their sums on Telstra.

Do you think it’s a $5 stock?

Certainly most of our valuations are sort of 50¢ either side of $5 but that’s … we’re applying pure old-style investment analysis for passive investors. For a private equity person who wanted to buy it, you know, they could comfortably pay $6 or $6.50 and still walk away with a very high return on their equity.

WBII

[ROE]

Keep dreaming on that price.. no private equity going to buy a company that are heavily regulated and too many uncertainty going into the future....

If the rumour was true why TLS price has been going south every since Monday?

TLS will slip below $4 by the year end :D

[ROE]

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/court-out-expect-a-broadband-price-war/2007/01/26/1169788692590.html

[ROE]

http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,21183574%5E15306%5E%5Enbv%5E,00.html

she is one of the better CIO around, she transformed Qantas IT system beautifuly... this is not a good sign for TLS when one the good staff just get up and go.

[malachii]

As someone who deals with the system she set up at Qantas everyday I wouldn't necessarily say that she transformed Qantas IT beautifully!! She also left Q for Telstra a few weeks after re-signing a very large contract with Telstra. Hmmmm - it makes you wonder!

malachii

[TheRage]

So Telstra have released H1 report. Revenue is up 2% but operating expenses are also up 9% and most importantly Net profit after tax is down 20.1%. Apart from struggling to read the poor pdf release due to the grainey quality, these results were expected and probably won't affect Sp too much. The thing I really hate about Telstra announcements is that they always talk about where they are superior to others. They never seem to mention where they can improve.

[Warren Buffet II]

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/court-out-expect-a-broadband-price-war/2007/01/26/1169788692590.html

Where is little ROE today? I guess he is trying to find some article about Telstra.

TLS is getting close to 5% up today.

WBII

[nomore4s]

Where is little ROE today? I guess he is trying to find some article about Telstra.

TLS is getting close to 5% up today.

WBII

lol, He is quite negative about Telstra isn't he. At least the market doesn't seem to agree with him at the moment.

TLS up 17c today

[nomore4s]

mmm very good day closed above $4.50 & TLSCA above $3.10

Kennas will be a happy man in Mexico :D

[TheRage]

lol, He is quite negative about Telstra isn't he. At least the market doesn't seem to agree with him at the moment.

TLS up 17c today

To be honest I think like ROE on this stock. I can see why WBII likes the cashflow with this stock and the fact that it is a monopoly but the exuberant enthusiasm that the share is currently experiencing has no merit. The share announces a decrease in NPAT of 26% and it goes up 5%. We have become so conditioned to this share performing so badly that when the announcement isn't quite as bad as we thought it might be we reward it by pushing the Sp higher. A simple 3 year analysis of the stock on forecasted earnings reveals the true picture. Forecast earnings in 2009 are 27.3 cents. On current price $4.50 PE ratio will be 16.48 which is higher than the current PE of 15.4. Average 9 year PE is 18 so even at this level SP in 3 years on projected earnings is $4.91. Shareholder return = 4.91-4.5 = 41 cents. 0.41/4.5 = 9.1% return / 3 years = 3.03% return. If we factor in forecasted dividends which are being paid partly out of earnings we get a better return .26+.26+.27 =0.79. Overall return = 0.79 +.41 = 1.2. 1.2/4.5 = 26%/3years =8.88% yearly return. Adding back franking credits and the return becomes better again. The problem is that there are better opportunities out there. Net Tangile Assets seems to be steadily declining and current liabilities as well as long term liabilities keep getting bigger. Current Liabilities are almost twice current assets at 8 billion and will continue to grow over the next few years. Long term debt is 11.4 billion dollars which would take 4 years of current earnings to pay off providing that no dividends were paid. If telstra cleared all its debt it would take 6.5 yrs to payoff providing no dividends were paid and assuming flat earnings.

Anyway I am glad that those who own Telstra including my father are starting to see some increase in Sp expecially after it's poor performance. Just remember where the exit sign is when the final instalment payment on the T3 offer is due.

[michael_selway]

To be honest I think like ROE on this stock. I can see why WBII likes the cashflow with this stock and the fact that it is a monopoly but the exuberant enthusiasm that the share is currently experiencing has no merit. The share announces a decrease in NPAT of 26% and it goes up 5%. We have become so conditioned to this share performing so badly that when the announcement isn't quite as bad as we thought it might be we reward it by pushing the Sp higher. A simple 3 year analysis of the stock on forecasted earnings reveals the true picture. Forecast earnings in 2009 are 27.3 cents. On current price $4.50 PE ratio will be 16.48 which is higher than the current PE of 15.4. Average 9 year PE is 18 so even at this level SP in 3 years on projected earnings is $4.91. Shareholder return = 4.91-4.5 = 41 cents. 0.41/4.5 = 9.1% return / 3 years = 3.03% return. If we factor in forecasted dividends which are being paid partly out of earnings we get a better return .26+.26+.27 =0.79. Overall return = 0.79 +.41 = 1.2. 1.2/4.5 = 26%/3years =8.88% yearly return. Adding back franking credits and the return becomes better again. The problem is that there are better opportunities out there. Net Tangile Assets seems to be steadily declining and current liabilities as well as long term liabilities keep getting bigger. Current Liabilities are almost twice current assets at 8 billion and will continue to grow over the next few years. Long term debt is 11.4 billion dollars which would take 4 years of current earnings to pay off providing that no dividends were paid. If telstra cleared all its debt it would take 6.5 yrs to payoff providing no dividends were paid and assuming flat earnings.

Anyway I am glad that those who own Telstra including my father are starting to see some increase in Sp expecially after it's poor performance. Just remember where the exit sign is when the final instalment payment on the T3 offer is due.

Hi Can it surprise withs its earnings forecasts? M & A also maybe?

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 26.5 16.5 -15.2%
Year Ending 30-06-08 27.5 15.9 3.8%

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 31.2 26.5 27.5 27.3
DPS 34.0 28.0 28.0 28.0

Nice sustainable payout ratio!

thx

MS

[giss]

this nxt G thing is going to be big & there baby only for the next few years australia wide. It might not be a complete replacement for the losses occuring in converging tech but its going to be a constant source of good news to plug the holes. I wouldn't be surprised if the share price keeps rising up to say $5.50 in the next 6 months.

[TheRage]

Nice sustainable payout ratio!

thx

MS


Hi Michael,

I can't tell whether your being sarcastic or not. The payout ratio is certainly sustainable but at the expense of using full earnings and a little extra debt to cover it. I prefer companies that can afford to pay dividends not ones who pay them because the shareholders would bail without them.

cheers
ryan

[Warren Buffet II]

Hi Michael,

I can't tell whether your being sarcastic or not. The payout ratio is certainly sustainable but at the expense of using full earnings and a little extra debt to cover it. I prefer companies that can afford to pay dividends not ones who pay them because the shareholders would bail without them.

cheers
ryan

It (pay divids and increase share price) isn't what shareholders for an income type of share want?

If they have the cash flow to pay divids from debt that is OK for me and for any other shareholder and that is what Telstra has been doing for many years, so it is not something new.

WBII

[TheRage]

It (pay divids and increase share price) isn't what shareholders for an income type of share want?

If they have the cash flow to pay divids from debt that is OK for me and for any other shareholder and that is what Telstra has been doing for many years, so it is not something new.

WBII

Warren I have been following telstra for a very long time due to my father's interest in the share and am familiar with their debt structure etc.

Here is a little food for thought. On current long term debt of 11.4 billion telstra is paying 1 billion dollars a year on interest alone. Lets assume for interest sake that Telstra has no hedging and no fixed interest and the markets interest rate ramps up to 10% then Telstra debt commitment becomes even higher. On recent and predicted cash flows telstra earnings are predicted to be between 3-5 billion over the next few years. over a 1/4 of earnings are being used to pay off the interest on debt. To further complicate this more debt is being added due to payment of dividend in excess of earnings further compounding interest payments. I can appreciate that everyone's long term view on this stock is bullish due to the supposed cost savings, improvements in technology, monopolistic nature of the company, but I am waiting until I can see debt being paid off before I get too excited or earnings doubling. Good luck on your investment.

[UMike]

FYI

Westpac Stock broking has given them an intrinsic valuation of $5.10.

[TheRage]

FYI

Westpac Stock broking has given them an intrinsic valuation of $5.10.
Thank you but I don't need a stock broker to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock when I can calculate it based on future cash flows for myself. I certainly hope you are right though it would be nice for my father to regain some ground on his dwindled return on this stock.

[UMike]

Thank you but I don't need a stock broker to calculate the intrinsic value of a stock when I can calculate it based on future cash flows for myself. I certainly hope you are right though it would be nice for my father to regain some ground on his dwindled return on this stock.
Yes but some of us aren't as smart as you. ;)

I am always happy when others recognise an undervalued stock that I have previously recognised. :D

[ROE]

Where is little ROE today? I guess he is trying to find some article about Telstra.

TLS is getting close to 5% up today.

WBII

Telstra fundamental hasnt change since last year, the price gone up because fund managers is pumping money into the stock for yield, nothing special about Telstra today than it was 10-12 months ago.

This dog still face lot of challenge ahead, regulation, google going to hurt their sensis earning in a few years.... if ACCC is successful with their case, there go alot of line rental revenues because people like me will get rid of phone rental and have it just for ADSL and use mobile and VoIP. Debt level is also high on this dog, if sudden movement in interest rate will cause problems for it.

There are alot more stock out there that perform much better than TLS and I put my money in those stocks.

PS: if you hold a stock long enough it will eventually go up but you have to compared against other stocks and TLS is certainly a real dog.
put the same money you put into TLS a few years ago into CBA/WOW/BHP/MBL etc...and you come out way way way ahead.

[ROE]

It (pay divids and increase share price) isn't what shareholders for an income type of share want?

If they have the cash flow to pay divids from debt that is OK for me and for any other shareholder and that is what Telstra has been doing for many years, so it is not something new.

WBII

NO I dont want a company to pay me dividend when it takes on extra debt to cover it and take on debt to fund its infrastructure..

you look at all Wonderful company and none of those do anything like it.
they pay 50-60% payout ratio, the rest they use for cap ex and increase equity in the company. TLS is like a guy that live from pay cheque to pay cheque. They spend everything they earn then take on more debt when they need the cash to buy a car or TV or whatever, after a series of bad moves they lost their job and they go bankrupt.

I got nothing against TLS, the figure speak for themselves I once owned this stock but not until it sell at Bargain price 3.50 and I pick it up and offload them when they hit above $4 because I dont think it's a good stock fundamentally..the onlything TLS has that sustain their earning is monopoly on copper line, not good business.

The stock is higher and I sold them out earlier but I never ever regret my decision on a profit. I work with my systems and it make me money and I dont intend to change it because of 1 or 2 stocks.

[Warren Buffet II]

NO I dont want a company to pay me dividend when it takes on extra debt to cover it and take on debt to fund its infrastructure..

you look at all Wonderful company and none of those do anything like it.
they pay 50-60% payout ratio, the rest they use for cap ex and increase equity in the company. TLS is like a guy that live from pay cheque to pay cheque. They spend everything they earn then take on more debt when they need the cash to buy a car or TV or whatever, after a series of bad moves they lost their job and they go bankrupt.

Well, that could be right, but the fact is that Telstra T3 has returned sharesholders 55% and soon a 7% in divds. Happy days.

WBII

[ROE]

Well, that could be right, but the fact is that Telstra T3 has returned sharesholders 55% and soon a 7% in divds. Happy days.

WBII

hey good on those with T3 I did have T3 as well but sold them at $2.64
that enough profit for me for a dog of ASX.

I just speak fundamentals and pick out company weak points.

If you make a **** load on TLS good for ya, seem like your systems work for you
dont have to get too personal.

[Warren Buffet II]

hey good on those with T3 I did have T3 as well but sold them at $2.64
that enough profit for me for a dog of ASX.

I just speak fundamentals and pick out company weak points.

If you make a **** load on TLS good for ya, seem like your systems work for you
dont have to get too personal.

Hey, ROE that is fine, I am happy you made a profit with T3.

I have to ask you, if you believe TLS is that bad why did you invest in it in the first place? It is just an honest question to understand why people invest in companies that they believe don't have good prospects

WBII

[TheRage]

Hey, ROE that is fine, I am happy you made a profit with T3.

I have to ask you, if you believe TLS is that bad why did you invest in it in the first place? It is just an honest question to understand why people invest in companies that they believe don't have good prospects

WBII
Warren I am guilty of having done this in the past on other stocks I simply did not believe in. The only reason I can give you is that positive sentiment is overwhelmingly favourable to an Sp increase. If an offer is oversubscribed then Sp goes up. I have done this on several stocks at offer and offloaded not too far down the track because I knew it was the sentiment pushing up the price and not the fundamentals. To be honest I knew T3 would be oversubscribed by the mere fact that everyone I knew was talking about it. I should have jumped in and dumped but didn't because I couldn't separate my own emotions of disliking this stock from a true opportunity.

[ROE]

Hey, ROE that is fine, I am happy you made a profit with T3.

I have to ask you, if you believe TLS is that bad why did you invest in it in the first place? It is just an honest question to understand why people invest in companies that they believe don't have good prospects

WBII

I buy them because at $3.50 it's relative cheap with the prospect of turning it around but after 6 months or so with the shares pushing up and fundamentals hasnt change and profit margin get hammer each year so it's time for me to let go at a reasonable profit and pick up the next bargain stocks.

Even though TLS did better than predicted because Analysts play into Sol's
hand, he wanted to knock the stock back sooooooooo bad when he join and make all the bad news and make worse possible prediction on earnings so when the news comes out it can only get better and he becomes a hero.

Pretty smart huh. I would do the same TLS is already a dead dog when he join so doesn't hurt to shoot the dead dog down and raise a new puppy and get the love of the family.

But read TLS fine print carefully, their Mobile margin got knock back a whooping 45% to 35%. Cost are higher, for every extra dollar revenue they generate their cost is higher than normal.

So all the signs is there just need to read it. I still maintain TLS is not a good company for now but it may be in 2-5 years, but only time could tell.

I continue to monitor TLS and when all the signs is right (lower cost, higher margin, growth above 8% etc..) I come back in or when it's selling like $3.50 :D

[Warren Buffet II]

But read TLS fine print carefully, their Mobile margin got knock back a whooping 45% to 35%. Cost are higher, for every extra dollar revenue they generate their cost is higher than normal.


Well, that is the power of a monopoly, any monopoly can do that without any problem and they are spending like crazy to get ahead in the mobile market, specially in the 3G network. Optus which is trying to compite and keep second place will install its network in 3 years!!. TLS has 3 long years to gain as much customers as they can and do what a monopoly does the best, economies of scale. So I am most than happy to see TLS spending millions in mobile and broadband, I believe that is great.

Not all cost increases are bad and I recommend you have a read about monopolies become natural monopolies.

WBII

[ROE]

Well, that is the power of a monopoly, any monopoly can do that without any problem and they are spending like crazy to get ahead in the mobile market, specially in the 3G network. Optus which is trying to compite and keep second place will install its network in 3 years!!. TLS has 3 long years to gain as much customers as they can and do what a monopoly does the best, economies of scale. So I am most than happy to see TLS spending millions in mobile and broadband, I believe that is great.

Not all cost increases are bad and I recommend you have a read about monopolies become natural monopolies.

WBII

TLS monopoly is not a good one, they bound by regulations and that will some what restrict in what they can do, sometimes to a deadth :-)... see how much money TLS loose when regulation make them open up their copper line?.... Still some form of monopoly is better than none but I prefer Monopoly like Coca Cola, Google where services and quality dictate their monopoly and customers are prepared to pay for it even it cost them more.

[kennas]

TLS holding above $4.50 - what I thought was long term resistance. Will be very positive if it can hold above, maybe test it, forming support. Next resistance on the long term chart is up at $5.00 ish. MACD confirming upward trend. Looking ok for the minute.

[Warren Buffet II]

ACCC drops Telstra Case

http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/accc-drops-telstra-case/2007/03/02/1172338844028.html

Looks like the ACCC is just trying to intimidate TLS and is coming out with nothing. They better have a strong case for TLS line rentals when TLS starts the court case.

WBII

[ROE]

Warren got some more money to buy TLS at $3.50? it's heading down that way :D

I :) got some ready

[Warren Buffet II]

Warren got some more money to buy TLS at $3.50? it's heading down that way :D

I :) got some ready

Be prepared because they whole market is going that way ;).

WBII

[ROE]

Good you have a sense of humor Warren :) I thought I'm going to get a blast from you since you are so attached to Telstra :D .

Cheers

[kennas]

Unusual volume on TLS yesterday. Any ideas?

Broke through $4.50 again and touched $4.60 an area not seen for some time. Aug 05 actually. For those following we picked the break of the down trend some time ago and it seems to have been recovering OK. Chart forming a big cup, heading back to $5.00 by the look. Lots of resistance between $4.50 and $4.75 though, so there might be some sideways action. Still medium term going up.

(holding - too many. Bought all the way to the bottom after T2 :( - making up for it now :) )

[Gurgler]

Unusual volume on TLS yesterday. Any ideas?


I noticed dividends were paid in overnight - any connection, or is this coincidence?

[kennas]

I noticed dividends were paid in overnight - any connection, or is this coincidence?I think it was options...hit 4.68 this am. Had a good run. I'm not sure what has really changed fundamentally for TLS. Is it safe haven buying? Belief in the 3 Amigo's story? TLS winning the mobile and broadband battle? Release from Gov control? Whatever it is, it's certainly been a turn around story.

[Ken]

I missed Telstra on open at 4.16 last after the crash...

Everytime you think Telstra has had its run it keeps kicking.

[Glenhaven]

Finally a fantastic couple of days for Telstra holders. Telstra 3 was such a great investment.

[Happy]

This week TLS touched price recorded in September 2001 so it is not that bad.

[louie]

This has to help Telstra a lot.

Telstra has had a big win over the ACCC. :D

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/telstra-has-big-win-over-accc/2007/04/05/1175366408029.html

[Warren Buffet II]

Warren got some more money to buy TLS at $3.50? it's heading down that way :D

I :) got some ready

Hi ROE,

I just could not resist to quote your entry from January saying that TLS was going to touch $3.50 well it has done it today but ...... it was TLSCA who did it ;)

WBII

[ROE]

hahahaha glad you make your money on TLS ;)
at current price it's around PE of 18 ..... no longer a bargain stock :)
It may starts free fall soon :D
keep your feet close to the exit ;)

[dhukka]

Good analysis ROE, paying dividends that exceed profits by using borrowed funds to meet the shortfall was a blatant ploy to prop up the share price before the float of T3. Anyone with an ounce of common sense can see that paying dividends that exceed profits by increasing debt is unsustainable and detrimental to the health of a business.

Without the ability to reinvest profits at high rates of return, the encumbrance of government regulation and as competition heats up in several areas of its business its hard to entertain holding such a poorly managed business at these prices. Actually I think ROE is being generous

[ROE]

are we buying T4 ;)

http://www.tellthetruthtelstra.com.au/

[Gurgler]

Don't you just want to hug him?

He's out there confronting the government on our behalf:
Sol says:
"I would like to see the environment for investment change - it means a policy change, it means that it's a change the government will have to lead.

"Otherwise my shareholders, the Telstra shareholders don't want to invest in money-losing projects."

He said Telstra shareholders "should not be put into a position where they are asked to subsidise foreign competitors".

from an Age article just out: "Sol resumes broadband hostilities"

http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/sol-resumes-broadband-hostilities/2007/05/14/1178995053432.html

[AndyMc]

Hey Guys

Yarr I'm very new to trading and have been having a good look at Telstra charts.

Recently I'm becoming more and more keen on the idea of Telstra getting to and going below 4.60 by the last week of May. :homer:

Any thoughts?

[ROE]

Any truth to this story?
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,21773473-462,00.html

it will be a sad day for TLS if they resource to this sort of tactics.

1 thing I hate is management disregard for their staffs well being, and the pain and suffering they may cause to their family.

Maybe TLS CEO should read common stock, uncommon profit by Philip Fisher.

[ROE]

Hey Guys

Yarr I'm very new to trading and have been having a good look at Telstra charts.

Recently I'm becoming more and more keen on the idea of Telstra getting to and going below 4.60 by the last week of May. :homer:

Any thoughts?

No idea. I'm not a chart reader :-). I don't understand it.. I stay the hell away from it .. :D ...

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Hey Guys

Yarr I'm very new to trading and have been having a good look at Telstra charts.

Recently I'm becoming more and more keen on the idea of Telstra getting to and going below 4.60 by the last week of May. :homer:

Any thoughts?

Andy,
Both on a weekly chart I see an opportunity to buy but some weakness may creep in. If you feel it is going to sub 4.60 ish then be quiet because you may scare everybody out of it again.........:D

[rocka1]

MY OPNION IS LOOK ELSE WERE better value in other stocks due to managemen.stock price due for a breather in my opnion cheers rocka

[AndyMc]

Andy,
Both on a weekly chart I see an opportunity to buy but some weakness may creep in. If you feel it is going to sub 4.60 ish then be quiet because you may scare everybody out of it again.........:D

It's moving slower then I thought, so who knows.
Just my speculation even i don't trade from them at the moment. :D:p:

[kennas]

Unusual volume on TLS yesterday. Any ideas?

Broke through $4.50 again and touched $4.60 an area not seen for some time. Aug 05 actually. For those following we picked the break of the down trend some time ago and it seems to have been recovering OK. Chart forming a big cup, heading back to $5.00 by the look. Lots of resistance between $4.50 and $4.75 though, so there might be some sideways action. Still medium term going up.

(holding - too many. Bought all the way to the bottom after T2 :( - making up for it now :) )On last review I thought 4.50-75 was going to be difficult, but on review, perhaps it's 4.75-5.00 which is going to be where most of the static will be. Plenty of churning there between Jul 03 to Jun 05. Probably plenty of mums and dads buying around there who will be happy to cash in soon to buy a caravan.

The cup has formed now IMO, and if we get some consolidation sideways ish for a little bit you can count that as a handle, perhaps. Quite a cup and handle that one! Price target from break through 5.00 ish will be $6.50. Pretty early to call, but I like making rash TA predictions. I'll wait for the eggs to be thrown later. :)

[kennas]

Been chatter around of TLS as a takeover target, along with just about everything else on the ASX. Can't really see it myself. Where's the potential turn around, or release of value in the stock. Sell Sensis and Yellow Pages? :confused:

I think Sol was right, it wouldn't be a target while it's half way through an efficiency program - or whatever he's calling it.


0847 [Dow Jones] Trade in Telstra (TLS.AU) likely to be active after AFR's Street Talk column says Macquarie Bank (MBL.AU) recently approached the Future Fund about taking a cornerstone TLS stake. Unsourced item says Macquarie working with consortium of unnamed institutions to bid for at least 3% of the company - Future Fund owns 17%. Report says it looks like MBL, which recently failed in its takeover bid for Qantas (QAN.AU), approached the Fund directly, but was referred to Fund's advisers at Deutsche Bank. Had been some talk at time of T3 sale that Macquarie wanted a chunk of shares then. Macquarie spokesman declines comment on today's report, same at Deutsche Bank, but report likely to reignite speculation that TLS could be a takeover target. TLS last at A$4.84. (LMF)

[kennas]

Here's a close up of the handle forming on TLS. Pretty dodgy but it's shaping up on the 3 years chart. Break though 4.90 ish is taking on greater significance. That will just mean that the break will be more significant too. I think. :confused: I hope. :)

[kennas]

On last review I thought 4.50-75 was going to be difficult, but on review, perhaps it's 4.75-5.00 which is going to be where most of the static will be. Plenty of churning there between Jul 03 to Jun 05. Probably plenty of mums and dads buying around there who will be happy to cash in soon to buy a caravan.

The cup has formed now IMO, and if we get some consolidation sideways ish for a little bit you can count that as a handle, perhaps. Quite a cup and handle that one! Price target from break through 5.00 ish will be $6.50. Pretty early to call, but I like making rash TA predictions. I'll wait for the eggs to be thrown later. :)Still happening. Looks like it's going a bit bearish short term, and could find 4.50 to the down side even while the long term bull is running. I'm still guestimating a break though $5.00 could see a C&H significant breakout. I don't think I've seen a cup this size before. Just a probability of course. I think the future fund can sell off stakes in this shortly, which it should, to balance the portfolio, so should see some significant holders eventuate in the comming weeks/months. Takeover spec should probably blossom at that time also, although a very long shot.

(holding - too many - since T2 and 'averaged down' to 3.50 and added on break through $4.00 up to now - and now breaking even, not counting dividends which have been noice :))

[reece55]

Still happening. Looks like it's going a bit bearish short term, and could find 4.50 to the down side even while the long term bull is running. I'm still guestimating a break though $5.00 could see a C&H significant breakout. I don't think I've seen a cup this size before. Just a probability of course. I think the future fund can sell off stakes in this shortly, which it should, to balance the portfolio, so should see some significant holders eventuate in the comming weeks/months. Takeover spec should probably blossom at that time also, although a very long shot.

(holding - too many - since T2 and 'averaged down' to 3.50 and added on break through $4.00 up to now - and now breaking even, not counting dividends which have been noice :))

Hey Kennas
Top post mate - the cup and handle on the monthly is very obvious here, almost text book in fact. Short term, looks like it's going to take a breather (MACD divergence), but perhaps it will find support at that 4.50~ level as you said, which incidentally looks like where the 200 MA on a weekly time sits at the moment. Then I guess we are just waiting for confirmation of another bullish move back up and see if it can crack the 5.00 level.

On my watch list now........

Cheers

[kennas]

Hey Kennas
Top post mate - the cup and handle on the monthly is very obvious here, almost text book in fact. Short term, looks like it's going to take a breather (MACD divergence), but perhaps it will find support at that 4.50~ level as you said, which incidentally looks like where the 200 MA on a weekly time sits at the moment. Then I guess we are just waiting for confirmation of another bullish move back up and see if it can crack the 5.00 level.

On my watch list now........

CheersShorter term the horizontal support looks like it should be between 4.50 and 4.60, which will also be at an upward trend line. Not sure about the 200 d ma. Mine is a daily, but a little bit off the level you describe, but it could move closer as the sp comes off over the comming days to reach the support (if it does).

[julius]

Think your on it Kennas.

Look for TLS to climb back to resistance at $5.

We might see a run if it breaks - but I'm out at 5 without new signals.

[julius]

Now up 12c since Wednesday.

Note support is more difficult to quality than resistance. Market has tested that level four times since April - I think we'll need major buying pressure to move through $5.

Till then I'v got my eye on the exit.

[kennas]

Shorter term the horizontal support looks like it should be between 4.50 and 4.60, which will also be at an upward trend line. Not sure about the 200 d ma. Mine is a daily, but a little bit off the level you describe, but it could move closer as the sp comes off over the comming days to reach the support (if it does).Unfortunately, this FTTN v Cable debarcle and win by the Singaporeans over Australia is going to cost Telstra short term I feel. There's a lot of uncertainty of what this all means at the moment, and I think the SP will suffer. Not sure if those support levels will hold actually. Helen Gooner is such a pain in the @rse.

[Kauri]

Unfortunately, this FTTN v Cable debarcle and win by the Singaporeans over Australia is going to cost Telstra short term I feel. There's a lot of uncertainty of what this all means at the moment, and I think the SP will suffer. Not sure if those support levels will hold actually. Helen Gooner is such a pain in the @rse.

Hi Kennas,
Tls...one of my few loooong-term pattern trades... trading a potential cup on the weekly... unfortunately can still fall a long ways and remain valid :eek7: ..
Cheers
Kauri

[wavepicker]

Hi Kennas,
Tls...one of my few loooong-term pattern trades... trading a potential cup on the weekly... unfortunately can still fall a long ways and remain valid :eek7: ..
Cheers
Kauri


Hello Kauri, hows things?

Great chart, I actually have been looking at the daily chart of this the last few weeks, the struggling move up in that timeframe appears to be and EW Ending Diagonal (ED). Moves away from such patterns(in this case it would be down) can be quite abrupt. These are terminal patterns of a particular "degree" of trend. Whether it is the larger trend in this case remains to be seen, but this was easily spotted from weaks ago

Cheers

[ROE]

Why let an American Comedian Amigos treat Australian Workers and Australian company this way???? Share holders vote him out.

http://www.news.com.au/story/0,23599,21929990-2,00.html

[YELNATS]

Disappointing results today from a disappointing company.

When will the Mexi-Yankees start to perform or leave? They're on a high enough and increasing stipends aren't they?

Isn't it time they stopped blaming the regulatory landscape in this country and started to perform to the max within it's accepted boundaries and restrictions?

"Hello guys, Hello, ..... wake up, this isn't the USA.

Surely your honeymoon period is over and you need to perform quick smart or quit."

I can't remember the last time this company pleasantly surprised the market.

I'm Peeved. YN :mad:

[UMike]

Disappointing results today from a disappointing company.

When will the Mexi-Yankees start to perform or leave? They're on a high enough and increasing stipends aren't they?

Isn't it time they stopped blaming the regulatory landscape in this country and started to perform to the max within it's accepted boundaries and restrictions?

"Hello guys, Hello, ..... wake up, this isn't the USA.

Surely your honeymoon period is over and you need to perform quick smart or quit."

I can't remember the last time this company pleasantly surprised the market.

I'm Peeved. YN :mad:
I'm more than peeved.
These Mexi - Yankees have no idea about how to deal in Australian environments.

I wouldn't recommend these guys to run my Mother in laws company.

[Ken]

TLS to go under 4.00 as it goes EX dividend on Monday.

If you're looking for yield stocks, TLS is as good as any.

[ROE]

TLS to go under 4.00 as it goes EX dividend on Monday.

If you're looking for yield stocks, TLS is as good as any.

TLS ex-dividend yesterday or this Coming Friday?
Comsec said Friday and news.com.au reported yesterday ????? :confused:

I think news got it wrong.

not touching TLS until it trades below $4 :-) that how much I think it's worth.

[ROE]

Disappointing results today from a disappointing company.

When will the Mexi-Yankees start to perform or leave? They're on a high enough and increasing stipends aren't they?

Isn't it time they stopped blaming the regulatory landscape in this country and started to perform to the max within it's accepted boundaries and restrictions?

"Hello guys, Hello, ..... wake up, this isn't the USA.

Surely your honeymoon period is over and you need to perform quick smart or quit."

I can't remember the last time this company pleasantly surprised the market.

I'm Peeved. YN :mad:

I never seen a company waste so much time fighting the government instead of putting effort in running the company and run it well.

this to show these guys cant manage but love raging war and in war no one wins.

[Awesomandy]

TLS ex-dividend yesterday or this Coming Friday?
Comsec said Friday and news.com.au reported yesterday ????? :confused:

I think news got it wrong.

TLS ex-date is (was) 20 Aug. If you are desperate for the dividend, buy it on the New Zealand exchange, where the ex-date is 27 Aug.

[Sprinter79]

Suffer in your jocks!!! My next G phone even cuts out in my office in West Perth.

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=59377


ACCC forces Telstra Next G ad changes
Friday Aug 24 13:08 AEST
Telstra has changed a series of television advertisements promoting its Next G mobile telephone network after the consumer watchdog raised concerns that they could be misleading.

Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) chairman Graeme Samuel said Telstra had agreed to remove the taglines "Everywhere you need it" and "Get the coverage you need" from the ads.

"The ACCC had particular concerns about Telstra's unqualified use of the taglines 'Everywhere you need it' and 'Get the coverage you need' with Telstra's Next G network, when the whole of Australia is not covered and coverage is not always available where consumers need it," Mr Samuel said in a statement.

The ACCC was also concerned the ads conveyed the impression that call interference and drop-outs would not occur on the Next G network, which was set up to replace the old CDMA network in the bush.

"All traders must ensure that claims about the performance and quality of goods and services can be substantiated," Mr Samuel said.

[ROE]

Next G is a shocker compared to 3. I dump next G and went with 3.
there are going to be a lot of disappointed next G customers in the next few years, you can see that in 3 rise in subscription.

I got 3 phones and 3 Broadband plan, NICE!

$29.95 for 3 Broadband plan 1G limit is awesome...more quota than I need
to play with stock in a month anywhere that has 3 coverage. :D

[vishalt]

I don't understand this company..

it makes money.

But its declined for years, its crazy, what the hell is it gonna make it go into an uptrend?

Anyway but I think it seems like a good daytrading stock as it lacks intraday volatility. Will buy if it breaks $4.45, or supports at $4.15 - with 18c stops.

[ROE]

I don't understand this company..

it makes money.

But its declined for years, its crazy, what the hell is it gonna make it go into an uptrend?

Anyway but I think it seems like a good daytrading stock as it lacks intraday volatility. Will buy if it breaks $4.45, or supports at $4.15 - with 18c stops.

Good company with good assets and good cash flow it just really badly manage and do stupid things which can be corrected , with an overhaul of the whole board and senior management..It has huge monopoly advantage on its side but don't know how to use it to their advantage instead of waging war with the government. :banghead:

[Sprinter79]

The bosses are complete tools and have absolutely no subtlety about them. They have no repore (sp) with the common Australian, who see them as arrogant Americans who have come over here to tell them how to do things.

[Rainmaker2000]

I get a giggle reading all these posts about Tls....you guys are all day traders and dividend strippers......you wonder when the line will trend upwards and you want to analyse the personalities of these crazy US imports.....has anyone of you actually had a look at Tls fundamentals, business model or even its earnings.....would it be too simple to suggest that the price will trend up when Tls increases its earnings and vice versa....well derr, you want to know how and when......heres a hint, all parts of the tls business except for one very lucrative part is growing earnings impressively.....would it be fair to say that once they stem the bleeding in this one area, the growth from the other areas will flow straight to the bottom line...when will this happen....you guys like graphs, have a look at the graph in their presentation...its as plain as an azure sky...for the record Tls is a massive buy and Macquarie bank would bid twise its current price to financially engineer it, gear it up, break it up and sell it to ignorant retirees

[reece55]

I don't understand this company..

it makes money.

But its declined for years, its crazy, what the hell is it gonna make it go into an uptrend?

Anyway but I think it seems like a good daytrading stock as it lacks intraday volatility. Will buy if it breaks $4.45, or supports at $4.15 - with 18c stops.

Vishalt
The answer is simple - whilst it's a cash flow machine, it is expensive valuation wise and won't grow profits for years to come. So, at present, from a valuation perspective, you are probably loosing money each year you invest in Telstra until it starts to find new ways to make $$ in a declining fixed line market, once you factor in the yeild et.

I still don't understand why they don't split Telstra up - one entity would be the infrastructure paying investors a yield based return and the balance the wholesale business and Sensis, etc. Watch the EV appreciation if that were to occur.

Bloody Ziggy and his tech investments in the dot com boom!!!!

Cheers

[Bluebeard]

I dont like the way TLS is being managed either, not in terms of attacking government regulation, but clearly the shareholders could get bigger returns if Telstra itself does to itself what private equity would do to it if and when they decide to have a go at Telstra.

[Rainmaker2000]

Its tough to say Telstra has a stretched valuation, especially in this market..maybe if you only looked at PE..in this market you have no asset businesses like fund managers and retailors selling at PE20.....Tls has hard assets and its infrastructure quality recurring cashflow...it also has some compelling consumer franchises like foxtel and Sensis which are only starting their growth really...throw in the possibility of fibre to node and you can see why the instalment receipt is still a valued commodity....I'm just amazed that everybody hates this management so much that they totally don't believe their 2010 targets.....Shareholders seemed to like Ziggy a lot more with his penchant to just waste shareholder funds and give in to the government....the Telstra business is actually performing exceptionally well if you believe the reported stats, especially compared to other fixed line dependent telcos....I must confess I believe in the assets and just the franking credits alone are putting my kid through college

[gregcourageous]

Time for a bounce??? What do you think? Still heading below $4????
This chart seems to point to a bounce

[vishalt]

Can I ask why you guys trade in Telstra?

Just curious as I think there are so many more/better/solid/liquid stocks out there than this permanent downtrend scum lol.

[juw177]

Potential break out here. It has broken out of horizontal range by smashing $4.45 let's see if it holds.

[Dutchy3]

Yep ... and I went long on the close ...

4.75 - 4.85 shouldn't be to much of an issue in the next 4 - 6 weeks ...

[kennas]

Looks like a more significant break occuring to me. I recently sold long term holdings around $4.40. :(

[Dutchy3]

Looks like a more significant break occuring to me. I recently sold long term holdings around $4.40. :(

Hi kennas ... Yes has the potential. When TLS does manage to put together a few white candles in quick succession it has signaled a more significant move in the past ... recent highs at 4.95 might now be at risk

[YELNATS]

I just heard on the radio, at Telstra's meeting today apparently about two thirds of shareholders voted against the new TLS remuneration package for the Mr Trujillo and his executive team. Those against it included the Future Fund who owns over 16% of TLS.

Despite the vote, because it was "non-binding", the remuneration package is going ahead anyway. This includes Mr Trujillo's package being doubled even though the TLS share price is now lower than when he started.

Isn't this the height of arrogance and disregard for the wishes of the owners of the company?

Makes you wonder why they bothered to put it to the vote at all ??? :confused:

[prawn_86]

I agree Yelnats.

Im all for executives getting fat pay packets providing they are making the cash for the shareholders.

Sol is running a company how he likes without anyone to keep him in line. If a shareholders vote cant stop him i dont know what can :confused:

My partner was one of the people recently made redundant by TLS and the way they are going about the staff cutting seems to also be completely wrong imo. Not saying that staff dont need to be cut, but sometimes you wonder about certain methods...

[bigdog]

For those members that hold Telstra shares look forward to higher SP's after the Rudd victory.
-- out with the Liberals broadband solution!!

Any predictions on what the SP high tomorrow?

My guess is $5.00

Date----- Close Volume
23-Nov-07 4.63 18,221,736
22-Nov-07 4.63 30,167,943
21-Nov-07 4.54 36,548,812
20-Nov-07 4.60 19,159,077
19-Nov-07 4.65 30,120,418
16-Nov-07 4.66 25,092,195
15-Nov-07 4.71 24,642,451
14-Nov-07 4.72 27,718,147
13-Nov-07 4.69 31,087,080
12-Nov-07 4.65 44,379,962
09-Nov-07 4.68 34,222,206
08-Nov-07 4.73 45,185,762
07-Nov-07 4.82 40,492,129
06-Nov-07 4.83 29,038,808
05-Nov-07 4.77 29,601,364
02-Nov-07 4.79 46,246,721
01-Nov-07 4.71 65,367,689

[Rainmaker2000]

To be honest, I think the Labor win was widely expected and the actually effect on Telstra, the company, is a big question mark....

As for tomorrows share price, I think it would be ridiculous for it to jump substantially cause of a Labour win, but markets can be ridiculous in the short term......you are also assuming the market will know whether Labour is plus or minus and rise or fall accordingly, when history of similar incidents suggest that markets often move the wrong way in the short term...

Back to the big question mark, I do think Labour is a bonus for Telstra but only because they get to start afresh on new ground with the Government and Labour has already seen how the 'new Tls' will not take **** from anyone and will even endanger the relection of the Government......as Labour's first priority will be to get elected again, I think they will me amicable with TLS............

Also, Labour obviously is planning to partially fund fibre to node...........I view any taxpayer funding of commercial infrastructure as 'corporate welfare' and a free kick for TLS who will on participate on commercial terms.....Govt. will essential just be handing taxpayer funds to TLS in the similar to other 'public/private' ventures............

As opposed to others on this site, I'm a big fan of Tls long term plan and prospects

[Bill M]

This thread hasn't been visited for a while so I thought I would revive it. TLS has shot up lately mostly due to the ADSL2 connections now being put in play plus the forecast of more earnings via their wireless broadband network.

How do you people feel about the long term prospects of TLS now? Elections out of the way and the price has bounced?

I feel that TLS will continue to lose market share. I am on a new product right now called "Naked DSL" and this will surely make a dent on TLS profits. "Naked DSL" is a product that uses Telstra's copper, you do not need to pay for line rental. The 3rd. company uses this copper to hook up your DSL and get ADSL2 speeds on it. They also give unlimited free local and National calls through VOIP. I get this bundled package for $60 P/M. How can TLS keep up with this as the customers change over?

I hold T3, payment is due in May 2008 for the final instalment plus you get the free shares. Is TLS worth a buy and is it worth these prices? What is your opinions?

[Birdster]

This thread hasn't been visited for a while so I thought I would revive it. TLS has shot up lately mostly due to the ADSL2 connections now being put in play plus the forecast of more earnings via their wireless broadband network.

How do you people feel about the long term prospects of TLS now? Elections out of the way and the price has bounced?

I feel that TLS will continue to lose market share. I am on a new product right now called "Naked DSL" and this will surely make a dent on TLS profits. "Naked DSL" is a product that uses Telstra's copper, you do not need to pay for line rental. The 3rd. company uses this copper to hook up your DSL and get ADSL2 speeds on it. They also give unlimited free local and National calls through VOIP. I get this bundled package for $60 P/M. How can TLS keep up with this as the customers change over?

I hold T3, payment is due in May 2008 for the final instalment plus you get the free shares. Is TLS worth a buy and is it worth these prices? What is your opinions?

Bill, I agree that Telstra is losing a certain market share. They have major institutions on board though and an infrastructure that suits outback rural to the beaches.

Today I went shopping for a mobile internet dongle for my laptop. competetion's $29-2Gig d/load p/month vs Telstra $59 200Meg p/month. But people still buy Telstra??

As per topic though, they will/should adapt to meet and supply new technologies to keep on business as usual.

OZ post survived email. Blockbuster survived Foxtel. Both are still adapting to change as well as trying to promote new market strats just as Telstra is doing.

Agree?

[Bill M]

Agree?

To a certain extent yes but for me as a customer they need to pull something out of the bag, something even better to get me back. Another product is Virgins G3 get your home phone with us and get free internet product. They pay $60 a Month for virtually unlimited internet and free local and national calls, this is a good product.

My fear is that if TLS doesn't do something "mind blowing" or better than another company that they may keep losing market share. I am torn between selling T3 and making good profits now or watching it tank after dividend day. It's a hard decision because I hear plenty of people saying they will sell after divi day, what you reckon that will do to the share price? Although I'm a long term investor I am a bit worried about TLS innovativeness.

[Bill M]

More info here

"Chief executive Sol Trujillo has forecast earnings before interest and tax (EBIT) to grow by between five and seven per cent in the first six months of fiscal 2008, up from earlier guidance of a three to five per cent lift."

Full Story Here (http://au.biz.yahoo.com/050202/30/36qn.html)

[ROE]

With the introduction of Naked DSL, you will see TLS going to lose rapid share of the line rental. Naked DSL started late last year and many providers are aggressively offer the services.

I'm one of the people in the process of going with Naked DSL and VoIP.
no more line rental.

Naked DSL is a service where you just have a copper line in your home just for ADSL connection but without
an analogue phone serviced so their is no rental on the line...well there maybe but at rate far far below the current line rental
maybe a couple bucks compared to $30 most people pay.

[Rainmaker2000]

Good to see some discussion of TLS.

You guys are referring to TLS losing market share......I agree it would seem likely, but the statistics so far show that TLS is actually gaining market share in almost all of its markets......this is not a joke, look at the graphs in tomorrows profit presentation.....if consistent with prior results, TLS is actually growing share signficantly in broadband for example, even from their high base...and killing them in mobiles

Even fixed line phone, TLS will likely have growth in the residential market.....growth........all the financial estimates are based on how slow TLS can stem the loss..

Everybody seems to be focussing on how these beautiful products like naked broadband and voip will kill TLS.......they do have the potential but the stats so far do not support that at all.

I think the difference between the two stories is simple: smart people beat TLS........as for the masses, they are just happy having the old fixed line, paying riduculous prices to TLS and getting locked into bundling contracts

People should take a fresh look at the TLS profit release tomorrow......everybody, everywhere seems to hate this company, it's management and its prospects......if you take out 'fixed lines' which should be pretty stable, TLS is very much a growing business with great potential

[ROE]

I check the figure tomorrow but from what I see in the last 6 months it's not great ..

Mobile call margin is being sweeze.

Google maps pretty much killed Sensis maps so I want to see sensis earning,
as TLS predicting this is a massive growth area for them.. I want to see if Google has muscle in and slow it down and eventually take it out.

Naked DSL wont effect line rental for another year I reckon because it relatively new and adoption is not that great yet but I be interesting to see toward the end of 2008 on their line rental.

I think TLS has strong market position and a massive moat, pitty they dont use it too well to their advantage and let people work around their moat.

[Rainmaker2000]

Agreed, they have not used market power well in the past....but say what you like about Sol....every major decision and investment has been based around product differentiation and having exclusive product.........my favourite is the telco cable that joins Aus- and US for internet.....there is a perfectly good cable already their owned by NZ telecom made viable with Tls traffic though.....Sol of course is building a new cable.....I think the press release was something like "TLS saves Australia from subsidising foreign companies."....NextG is the best example to date though

Sensis is doing okay, but not up to expectation....most of Sensis is yellow pages with the paper version actually going backwards last report

The Mobile margin squeeze is on the back of massive market share and subscriber growth and probably will continue till can turn off CDMA

People forget that, yes, emerging technologies can cost less with great efficiency......but funny enough, the existing players have a way of colonising the emerging technology and making just as much, if not more, profitable.....No sign yet that TLS isn't doing that.........For example, it not like News Corp has sat in a corner to mourn the loss of the newspaper.......instead they are going out making great returns on recently acquired digital assets

[sinic]

Bill, I agree that Telstra is losing a certain market share. They have major institutions on board though and an infrastructure that suits outback rural to the beaches.

Today I went shopping for a mobile internet dongle for my laptop. competetion's $29-2Gig d/load p/month vs Telstra $59 200Meg p/month. But people still buy Telstra??

As per topic though, they will/should adapt to meet and supply new technologies to keep on business as usual.

OZ post survived email. Blockbuster survived Foxtel. Both are still adapting to change as well as trying to promote new market strats just as Telstra is doing.

Agree?

This is hardly comparing the same thing.. Telstra 3g works while travelling all over Australia - the others are only in major cities.

[engo]

I feel that TLS will continue to lose market share. I am on a new product right now called "Naked DSL" and this will surely make a dent on TLS profits. "Naked DSL" is a product that uses Telstra's copper, you do not need to pay for line rental. The 3rd. company uses this copper to hook up your DSL and get ADSL2 speeds on it. They also give unlimited free local and National calls through VOIP. I get this bundled package for $60 P/M. How can TLS keep up with this as the customers change over?

At the moment other companies are getting cheap access to TLS infrastructure, now we have a change from a anti-telstra government to a pro-telstra ALP government I think things will change for the better for TLS

[Bill M]

At the moment other companies are getting cheap access to TLS infrastructure, now we have a change from a anti-telstra government to a pro-telstra ALP government I think things will change for the better for TLS

You could be right but right now it is all nothing but proposals.

"In a statement, Optus said that Telstra's application had "little chance of approval", believing it is "a desperate last throw of the dice by Telstra to distract the ACCC as it is set to hand down its watershed ruling on ULLS prices." This ruling "will finally open up last mile access to genuine competition", said Optus."

Full Story Here (http://whirlpool.net.au/article.cfm/1769)

[Birdster]

This is hardly comparing the same thing.. Telstra 3g works while travelling all over Australia - the others are only in major cities.

Where are you coming from? This is what I meant about losing a certain market share. Rural to the shores Telstra has it stake. And they are adapting to new strats. (now I am just repeating myself). Prices are cheaper for going non-Telstra if you live in metro areas. But users still go Telstra. Many are, and I quote you,again, sinic "are only in major cities" and that is where TLS needs to adapt. As IMO people are going to move from Telstra products to a cheaper, if not inferior, product. Price rules. IMO majority will pay less for result than demand quality at no limit. The "$2" shops in every mall sell it and profit.

It is no secret that Telstra is most expensive. But it still shows growth through adapting and advancing. Just as their competitors do. Soon 3g will be norm Aust. wide for all telcos. If you disagree, I would call that foolish thought.

All prediction and opinion of course. BTW not holding TLS (or any other telco for the fact) only stating for discussion.

My hero the naked dsl and voip; hopefully the fall of telemarketers at tea time. OMG, am I going to get bagged! :eek:

[Rainmaker2000]

Not too shabby a result from TLS.....not exceptionally good either....sp likes the result but unsure why...

Pretty hard to argue that its a declining business with 65% retail broadband growth, 13% in mobiles.....I was hoping PSTN would go closer to steady but you can see on their graph 2.1% decline is an unbelievable outcome in global context and in context of TLS few years ago..Residential appears to be in growth...Fibe to home will fix all that....

Since their revenue growth is tracking way ahead of 2010 transformation, it is scary to see what TLS will be worth in management executes on the cost side, as costs have always been the ambition......Free cash flow could be just staggering by 2010 and I'm looking forward to a long, prosperous ride on the TLS train.

[jersey10]

Any insights as to why this stock has fell quite sharply recently after a good up trend from $4 to $5ish

[UMike]

I'd like to know also.

Aspect Huntley re-rated this as Accumulate last Thursday. (With an intrinsic value of $5.10)

I'm a long term holder on this stock and will continue to hold but find this recent downtrend way over the All Ords's performance over the last week intriguing.

[UMike]

I'd like to know also.

Aspect Huntley re-rated this as Accumulate last Thursday. (With an intrinsic value of $5.10)

I'm a long term holder on this stock and will continue to hold but find this recent downtrend way over the All Ords's performance over the last week intriguing.

[Rainmaker2000]

Honestly, why is everyting going down......its just a constant downward barrage........I think just driven by peoples margin loans and general belief that the stock market is now longer a conservative investment.....

I've got stocks trading at PE 6,7,8,9,10 and upwards who've had great profit seasons including TLS, as yet the market justd does not care, but it will soon

[Fab]

What is the deal with TLSCA (T3) if we decide to pay for them in May when the installment warrant expires? I understands that you get 1 free share for 25 held. So for 10000 TLSCA warrants held that means you get for free 400 TLS @ roughly 4.50 (today price) = $1800. Is that correct as this is a fair bit of money and sounds worthwhile paying for it when the installment warrant expire.

[UMike]

What is the deal with TLSCA (T3) if we decide to pay for them in May when the installment warrant expires? I understands that you get 1 free share for 25 held. So for 10000 TLSCA warrants held that means you get for free 400 TLS @ roughly 4.50 (today price) = $1800. Is that correct as this is a fair bit of money and sounds worthwhile paying for it when the installment warrant expire.
Thats correct.

It was a great incentive for me to keep them all this time.

If you include the fully franked dividends on your holdings at $4,200 and the $9000 in the shares acapital gains then it's been a winner for sure. :)

[Bill M]

What is the deal with TLSCA (T3) if we decide to pay for them in May when the installment warrant expires? I understands that you get 1 free share for 25 held. So for 10000 TLSCA warrants held that means you get for free 400 TLS @ roughly 4.50 (today price) = $1800. Is that correct as this is a fair bit of money and sounds worthwhile paying for it when the installment warrant expire.

You only get the free shares if you bought the T3 shares from the retail float. If you bought them on market after the float you won't get them, just pointing that out for the people who may not know, cheers.

[master82]

Like like Telstra will have to split for the NBN, if it does how severe will this impact on the share price?

I have 10,000 TLS bought at $4.22 - a large proportion of my capital, should I reduce it?

Thanks

[michael_selway]

Like like Telstra will have to split for the NBN, if it does how severe will this impact on the share price?

I have 10,000 TLS bought at $4.22 - a large proportion of my capital, should I reduce it?

Thanks

Hm not bad

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 29.8 31.7 35.7 40.7
DPS 28.0 28.0 30.0 32.0


Date: 5/9/2008
Author: Matt O'Sullivan
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: online
Telstra has admitted that the proposed broadband network increases its risk ofstructural separation. In a prospectus for a debt issuance program, theAustralian telco said that its network and retail businesses could be splitbecause of the Federal Government's national broadband network. Tenders forthe project were announced in early September, with submissions due by 26November

thx

MS

[Greg71]

Like like Telstra will have to split for the NBN, if it does how severe will this impact on the share price?

I have 10,000 TLS bought at $4.22 - a large proportion of my capital, should I reduce it?

Thanks

If your total trading bank is, say, $40k (I mean the total amount in your trading account if you liquidated all positions), work out what 2% of that is ($800), divide it by the number of shares you have (at the moment 10k), and you have your stop based on a 2% loss. In this case, 8 cents. Subtract this amount from your entry of $4.22, and you have a 2% stop at $4.14.

As the bottom of the channel it's in is lower than that, it's not a realistic stop, so you'd need to reduce your position to allow for a wider stop at say, $4.08, which would keep you in if it goes to support and bounces. You could then re-enter with your full position.

Looking at the chart, there's some ominous lower peak activity recently, so there may be some downward pressure. If there's a split coming up there may be some additional unsteadiness ahead.

$4.22 is a nice entry price, but if it were me, I'd be regretting not taking profits already.

This is not financial advice, as I am not a qualified financial advisor, only my observations based on my current level of expertise. :D

In other words, I take no responsibility for your actions.


http://salespagesoftware.com/images/tls.gif

[master82]

$4.22 is a nice entry price, but if it were me, I'd be regretting not taking profits already.

This is not financial advice, as I am not a qualified financial advisor, only my observations based on my current level of expertise. :D

In other words, I take no responsibility for your actions.





I regret it too when I didn't sell at $4.42,:banghead: I 'm too greedy, I will reduce my position just in case next week.

Thanks for the advice:)

[martraci]

Telstra DRP Suspended

Dividends are now accredited to your financial insitution

http://www.telstra.com.au/abouttelstra/investor/drp.cfm

:swear:

[tommymac]

I have never done a lot of research into Telstra, mainly because it is so policital which is proven by the recent events with the National Broadband Network.

I know it has a good yield, but for what other reasons have people invested in Telstra?

Would you buy Telstra now?
What would make you want to buy Telstra in the future? (e.g. if the company was split)

[ROE]

Losing the FTN stuff is a dead nail to Telstra.

If in fact someone else rather than TLS winning the bid, TLS is screw
they by pass all TLS copper line in the future and that will deal a $4B to TLS earning.

TLS only make money because of the monopoly on copper line..once that made obsolete by FTN, TLS is going down the toilet.

[Gundini]

I only bought TLS because it was sold off too heavy over the last couple of days. Not really an exciting stock, but at these prices I couldn't resist!

Long term hold for me, but I am still hoping for some more cheaper, if it gets cheaper...

Also think the media thing is a beat up, and TLS will end up getting the deals anyway.

[TheAbyss]

Telstra have an unbreakable monopoly imo. Whether they get readmitted into the NBN tender process or not they will emerger visotrs (ask Aussat). Of course it would be better that they get back on board as they are only hurting themselves trying to out manouvre the government who will fight tooth and nail to save face.

If they do not get back on board the NBN race then so what! They still have the best broadband coverage via Next G wireless and their Cable network and have the market share in all the places that matter (where the revenues are) so who needs to provide costly infrastructure to rural areas that are non profitable without government handouts to support it? They have lost nothing imo.

If a competitor comes on line and makes some inroads into the CBD areas then Telstra will take them on via a price war. The Accc has supported all against Telstra over the years but they continue to win market share because they have the best product and service network.

Nothing will change and all those nervous nellies who sold will regret it imo.

[tommymac]

^ Do you think the Government will ever force Telstra to split into two companies? Infrastructure v Telecom

[ROE]

^ Do you think the Government will ever force Telstra to split into two companies? Infrastructure v Telecom

it happens every where in the world cant see why TLS wont be force down the same path... it counter productive to have a monopoly controlling such critical infrastructure... There is no room for monopoly in a capitalist economy :D

[ROE]

Telstra have an unbreakable monopoly imo. Whether they get readmitted into the NBN tender process or not they will emerger visotrs (ask Aussat). Of course it would be better that they get back on board as they are only hurting themselves trying to out manouvre the government who will fight tooth and nail to save face.

If they do not get back on board the NBN race then so what! They still have the best broadband coverage via Next G wireless and their Cable network and have the market share in all the places that matter (where the revenues are) so who needs to provide costly infrastructure to rural areas that are non profitable without government handouts to support it? They have lost nothing imo.

If a competitor comes on line and makes some inroads into the CBD areas then Telstra will take them on via a price war. The Accc has supported all against Telstra over the years but they continue to win market share because they have the best product and service network.

Nothing will change and all those nervous nellies who sold will regret it imo.

TLS is nothing without their copper lines...FTN will make copper infrastructure obsolete... TLS manage to get customers by holding on to copper line and make it difficult for people to move around

ADSL customers still need TLS copper line for now doesnt matter who you sign up with but with FTN they just ignore TLS all together.

it be some years away but I cant see TLS compete on price, they just dont have it in them, look at all the mobile plans, it just doesnt compare....broadband plan too their price is just out of this planet and forget next G broadband for now...$100 bucks buy you a few gigabytes, only tech savy business buy those plan for work, general public can forget it.

Like I say most of the customers they got are old school people and they dont want to mess with TLS... once Gen Y coming on they are more selective and more tech savy they jump around and find the best deal.

At the current price the market already factor in TLS for that a fair bit of risk

this Dinosaur is big and it moves slow....I cant see it grow it earning more 5-10% a year... Until National Broadband deal finalise I dont think the price will not move any where soon.

[TheAbyss]

Roe, i hold with my previous comments. Time will tell.

Only real question is how can the government split the infrastructure component out of Telstra and not get taken to the cleaners by Telstra shareholders? They will sort it out sooner or later no doubt but for now my money is on Telstra.

There is a litany of failed Telstra competitors in Australia. Ask Optus Vision what happened when they took on Foxtel, ask Aussat when they took on Satellite delivery. Even the low end of the spectrum for Telstra (non business mobiles) is lifting for telstra now. Telstra is smashing the competition on Mobile data (revenues up 70% this year alone in the enterprise and government sector) in addition they are gaining more market share from the non tech savvy. They are mums and dads, they are gen y. People expect quality and that is what they are getting.

Just read the Telstra shareholder announcement and it pretty much says it all although a more than healthy dose of arrogance exudes from it than is expedient in my view.

No i do not work for Telstra but am in the communications industry. Bought some TLS at $3.37 on my belief that TLS not being part the NBN tender process will actually save Telstra money not cost them as some will have you believe.

:2twocents

[rub92me]

. They are mums and dads, they are gen y. People expect quality and that is what they are getting.

I nearly choked on my sandwich when I read this line. Quality? As recently as 6 years ago their copper lines they put to the new unit I was living in at the time in Sydney were so pathetic that I couldn't even get ADSL on it. They were (and probably still are) unable to combine their billing for broadband internet and mobile/phone bill. Just trying to get a Customer Service rep on the line is like undergoing Chinese water torture and it turns into something even worse once you finally manage to get one on the line. They can't provide itemised data charges for mobile phones. And the list goes on.
They probably have qualities that are appreciated by some, but quality? :eek:

[oldblue]

Worth bearing in mind that the NZ govt forced Telecom to split into three standalone businesses, without any compensation to shareholders.
Not saying that it will necessarily happen to TLS but the precedent is there, not only in NZ but elsewhere.

[TheAbyss]

I nearly choked on my sandwich when I read this line. Quality? As recently as 6 years ago their copper lines they put to the new unit I was living in at the time in Sydney were so pathetic that I couldn't even get ADSL on it. They were (and probably still are) unable to combine their billing for broadband internet and mobile/phone bill. Just trying to get a Customer Service rep on the line is like undergoing Chinese water torture and it turns into something even worse once you finally manage to get one on the line. They can't provide itemised data charges for mobile phones. And the list goes on.
They probably have qualities that are appreciated by some, but quality? :eek:

This is not the complaints department it is an investment forum. No company is perfect and the more customers you have the higher number of bad news stories will abound. My question to you is are you still using any Telstra services? Lot of people complain but still acknowledge there is no real alternative sometimes.

Their Next G services are 2nd to none and they are quality. Watch them ramp up the speed over the next few years on mobile data. The MPLS network is the acknowledged world leader so yes it is quality. MPLS is the patform the data network is based on and delivers speeds required for future uses such as video etc. One day you will be able to ring Telstra and ask for internet and they wont ask how much you will just get it and it will be sufficient for everything you could possibly want. Does your electricity or water provider ask you how much? No they just connect you. Different for business of course as usage varies dramatically. Telstra are the only ones capable of doing this and this is the sore point for a lot of people so change is inevitable imo.

Off topic somewhat though sorry. TLS will be around long after we are all gone and to not have some in any balanced portfolio is unwise imo. The sell off was over done is my point and i bought some and more than happy with my investment for now.

Watch them announce a major customer signing shortly perhaps a large bank or similar just to shift the focus somewhat

[Smurf1976]

TLS is nothing without their copper lines...FTN will make copper infrastructure obsolete... TLS manage to get customers by holding on to copper line and make it difficult for people to move around

And yet they've been running down the copper network for years through lack of maintenance, outsourcing and a general "patch up" mentality.

A classic case of what's wrong with how Telstra works:

At work we needed 3 copper lines installed. A simple job since the cable is already there - they just have to connect it, supply a phone number etc.

So what does Telstra do? Send a technician half way across the state (and we're in the city) to connect one of the lines. The technician informed us that someone will be back later to connect the other two - possibly one visit for each line.

Now, for those not aware, it takes only a few minutes work to do the connection. One 30 minute visit would have done the lot easily. But no, they want to travel ridiculous distances and spend a fortune instead.

The average 5 year old could work out that this isn't a particularly productive or economical way of getting the work done. :2twocents

[lcl999]

From an investors point of view there are a number of problems with Telstra.

1) The confrontational style of the hard men at the top. One must query whether their approach is the best path to shareholder's wealth. By getting the govt. offside they are finding out that if the govt. can close a door in their face, they will. By getting so many end users off side, there is political support at grass roots level for the govt. attitude.
2) By holding an effective monopoly they will be fighting the regulator on a continuing basis. This is a distraction from managing the company better.
3) With the steady increase in wireless's ability to replace copper in that last mile connection, Telstra's monopoly of that connectivity is on the wane.

I think there is a good business case for Telstra to split itself. "Old Telstra", call it Last Mile Limited, sells local bandwidth to all comers without any bias. A good steady business, like a toll road, to suit conservative investors.
"New Telstra" then becomes a high tech. company selling phones, internet connectivity, television, - whatever promises to turn a fast buck. The mindsets and management styles of the two companies would be quite different. Hence
4) Telstra is a conglomerate. Conglomerates are way out of fashion as specialists do better. Until Telstra sells off its low profitability divisions it will be a second-rate dinosaur. Regrettably current management thinks the current mish-mash is an asset.

[Rainmaker2000]

Not many TLS fans here.........thought I would play a little devils advocate.

1. I think TLS 'independent management' is a massive plus for the company as opposed to the former TLS managers who gave away shareholder funds to do what the gov wanted..........for those who actually know about TLS long term transformation, it's actually about enhancing the business and shareholder returns, not pleasing the gov.........good luck to the builder of Fibre to Node....it's great that it won't be TLS putting up the cash........fact is that they need TLS customers to make it work and the gov. will literally have to force them through structural separation.......that should be interesting

2. Someone can again explain the concept of monopoly to me.....yes, they own copper wire that came with an access regime in place.....not sure if anyone's notice but since 2005, TLS has only been putting money into 'non-regulated', 'non-monopoly' endeavours.....nextG, nextIP, ADSL2+......I think you get confused with the old TLS management who milked the monopoly, made wasteful acquistions and lifted the dividends ratio on falling earnings....for anyone who actually knows the business, TLS has done quite remarkably in slowing the migration away from the fixed lines...

3. Someone can explain to me how consumer's moving to wireless is a threat to TLS 'monopoly' after TLS created it's own 'monopoly' with its NextG, NextIP networks that no other firm in this country will ever invest the cash to match

4. While a spit in the company may interest those short term arbitrages after a quick buck........the current TLS model is quite a beautiful thing for shareholders and consumers alike............my understanding of a conglomerate is a firm with various businesses with only tenuous relationship................that's certainly not the beautiful, vertically integrated TLS model

The great thing about current management was an early determination to grow and make all these assets leverage off each other......I would not know what divisions TLS would want to sell off....under the current business model, all divisions are so vital.....you got infrastructure, customers and content

5. Bottom line: there is no way fibre will be profitable especially if TLS upgrades its cable network.........that means the government literally has to pass a law forcing TLS own customers from the copper and onto the fibre.........I can't wait to see the regulatory solution..........no matter, cause TLS is not wasting shareholders funds on this debacle, they shall ensure funds are invested where they will get a return....

[kirtdog]

too much debt, one main asset that will one day be worthless, if you ask me telstra is a risky investment, technology will phase out landline phone completely and everything will be satellite, thats talking very long term... the only thing theyve got going on is the mobile phone side of things.. over priced risky long term company IMO.

[sofman2000]

I agree with rain maker- also having worked in telco for 15 yr+- I am confident that the management do not care about being excluded - Infact it was probably planned- They know they cant lose - if they build it they will make money- If they dont build it they will make money- They are not going to give something away for nothing- they want to make $$$ full stop. The sell off was really just scared investors who fell for the media hype IMO. I will hold my parcel for now.

[lcl999]

Kirtdog, in principal I agree with you. One minor point, it is unlikely to be satellite technology as the quarter second up/down time kills voice conversations. However, my son has no land line. He uses mobile phone (Vodaphone) and public wireless for his internet connection. And he is not alone. Nomads like him are already land-line free and better cheaper wireless is imminent. Very soon land-lines will go the way of film cameras.
Ta-Ta Telstra

LCL

[outback]

You don't think the boffins at Telstra are aware of this and are working on a solution. I.E. Not satellite, but rather Next G, Wireless, Cable or whatever they perceive to be the next "big thing"?

[Bolivia]

This is probably a silly question, but with all these natural disasters, is Telstra's network insured? They have come out today and said that it is going to cost hundreds of millions to repair and replace damaged infrastructure. Are they insured for this?

[Harro7]

So Sol is gone. He needed to leave to have his earnings remain tax free. Telstra needed him to leave to find a way back into the new government project.

What do people think the best play for tls is now?

[trading_rookie]

What Telecom NZ did to get themselves back in favour with the NZ government was to appoint an external CEO...someone with no baggage re: separation of their business. And from all reports things there are looking rosy again.

They got someone from BT. Telstra's consultant has also spoken to someone within BT. Sticky point is investors might get a little peeved having to pay for an expensive import again especially with the the value of the AUD.

Personally I was happy with Sol's performance overall (Ziggy was a flop). The talk is Sol was quite surprised how much media speculation came with the job. And compared to that disaster in HK, it appears the partnership venture into China could be a good revenue raiser.

I find it funny that our own government would bend over so far for foreigners in the name of free trade that they wouldn't hesitate to ban Telstra from the NBN. You don't see the Singapore government ask Singtel to structurally separate if they wanted to tender and then win (in parternship with that Cannuck mob whose name escapes me) the Broadband rollout there....yet the cheek of it's puppet Optus to demand that of Telstra.

[trading_rookie]

Our PM was asked yesterday his thoughts on the departure of the TLS CEO...
Journo: Any reaction to Sol's departure?
Rudd: Um, adios
Journo: Will ppl be entitled to be angry if he walks away with a multigazillion-dollar payout?
Rudd: That will be a matter for the many, many hard-working Australians who are currently TLS shareholders.

Pffffff!!!! what about the many, many hard-working Australians who have seen the share price dip not because of the economic crisis but because of the decision to ban TLS from participating in the NBN by your party?!?!?!?!

[tommymac]

Pffffff!!!! what about the many, many hard-working Australians who have seen the share price dip not because of the economic crisis but because of the decision to ban TLS from participating in the NBN by your party?!?!?!?!

Telstra was arrogant to think it could make a bid for the NBN which didn't even meet all the pre-requisites. (It was written on 11 pages, or thereabouts)

The Govt had to make a decision, allow Telstra and receive complaints from the other bidders and the press, or ban Telstra which could increase costs. If you try to bully the Govt, eventually you will lose.

And let's face it, TLS has never been a great performer on the ASX even before the NBN. Mum's and Dad's have been losing lots of money from this company for a while. In my view its only a yield play, nothing more.

[trading_rookie]

TLS's arrogance is due to wanting to be sure before they submitted a bid that they would't be forced into structurally separate their business.
The argument is look what happened at BT Group and Telecom NZ when they were forced to. It would be interesting how Singtel would have reacted if the Singapore government had asked them to separate their businesses before successfully winning the bid to build the NBN there in partnership with a Canadian mob...Axia I recall??

On two occasions the chariman, McGauchie has requested a meeting with Conroy (Senator for TeleComms) and twice rejected, incl. two letters they wrote to his office clarifying if they put in a bid will they be forced to separate their wholesale and retail business, which too were ignored. It appears the government is as arrogant as our biggest telco ;-)

Since they received no clarification they submitted what they discussed with their lawyers was sufficient then and a few days later some more info re: the governments request for impact to sme's.

This is the sticky point, and why the bid was rejected, not due to the amount of pages submitted. The government argues they wanted all documentation submitted that day - TLS are arguing show me where in the bid it stipulated this? TLS are also stating it was a 'bid' not a 'tender' ;-)

In hindsight, instead of playing hardball and being arrogant they should have submitted it all. We can call it a 'Mexican' standoff ;-)

If TLS were successful and then pulled out, because they'd be required to separate the wholesale and retail businesses, the government would have the right to sue them for not going ahead. And they'd have more of a leg to stand on, then when TLS unsuccessfully sued former telco senator Coonan and the ACCC.



And let's face it, TLS has never been a great performer on the ASX even before the NBN. Mum's and Dad's have been losing lots of money from this company for a while. In my view its only a yield play, nothing more.


Excluding the dotcomm bubble where it hit $10 for a day, mum and dad investors in T1 and T3 have done okay with the share price...but then again, they're long term investors so the dividend payouts they've received since T1 have yielded quite nicely. Godd to see TLS will not cut it's interim dividend despite the price heading south after being excluded from the NBN.

[ROE]

I like TLS at this price but I know more about the people who build their transformation IT system and I tell you this mob going to bleed TLS dry, leave a half ass system ..
nothing will works ..Billing Chaos will be upon TLS in the next few years with them wasting more time disputing bill with customers than collecting it.

American Amigo will be gone along with half of the yanks that responsible for this transformation projects ..no one left to kick and TLS will be picking up the pieces... arm with that knowledge I stay away.

we call them the viking of IT world, they come they pillage and they go

[TheAbyss]

Bit of press coverage in the last day or so regarding the NBN process.

We have had Maha "why use a sentence when i can use 20" Krishnapillai telling us why Telstra should not be allowed back into the bidding process

Media speculation that the Govt will be up for billions in compensation if Telstra are excluded and other reports that the whole process is flawed without a telstra bid.

I suspect things are warming up for a government rethink on the NBN bidding and Sol may well become the scapegoat that the government can point at and say ok now we will let you have another crack.

Personally i believe that Telstra will win no matter what happens as they have all the cards to play and any competitor will surely die a slow death no matter how much the ACCC prop up the competition. Singtel are losing market share each quarter and haven't found a solution to halt the bleeding as yet which is why they are desperate to lobby Telstra out of the NBN process. Pity of it is if the Singtel consortium win they will lose as the rural data side of things will cost a fortune to deliver and australians just dont want to pay a high fee for internet.

The existing infrastructure is key for any NBN delivery so in the end there can be only one solution whether the govt or anyone else likes it or not from an infrastructure investment perspective.

:2twocents

[jancha]

Lot of nervous investors out there. Div day and TLS down 6%. Wonder what their share price will be come Monday?

[nev.shaun]

Fairly new at this, looking at charts Telstra's had a fairly slow or minimal recovery from ex div, but those were quite a while ago

I wonder how people will/are reacting to these though

Call for urgent ACCC intervention to ‘stop Telstra stealing customers’ say competitors (http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,27574,25146944-15306,00.html)

Canberra carriers being cut by Telstra: CCC (http://www.itwire.com/content/view/23644/127/)

[Uncle Festivus]

I think TLS is sufficiently oversold today for me to have my first purchase since I sold my T2 all those years ago. In at 315. When cash is king, TLS is still a cash cow? P/E & div yield looking mighty attractive, as long as it's maintained. Anyhow, so far a good whip/flip trade? Will they be left out in the cold with the NBN, will it even go ahead in this climate?

[malachii]

I thought they were oversold as well so I picked up a chunk. Think we'll see a bit of a rebound fairly quickly as despite all their problems - they are still have a pretty safe dependable cash flow. Also think a lot of the drop in price was because of Sol announcing he was leaving. I think the market will get over that pretty quickly especially when they announce his replacement.

malachii

PS Please note I own TLS so my opinion is VERY biased!!

[bloomy88]

Lot of nervous investors out there. Div day and TLS down 6%. Wonder what their share price will be come Monday?

Telstra's SP was down 13c today but it payed out a dividend of 14c. In theory though the SP of a company should drop by the dividend amount, since in theory SP is the present value of expected dividends in the future.

In short, SP went down 13c but paid dividend of 14c so in theory the SP went up by 1c. The drop in SP today shouldn't worry shareholders too much i would think

[hem9]

G'Day Mates

New to the site, posted in the introduction forum already and hoping to get some valuble wisdom from you experienced investor types.

Got a small amount of money to make my first investment and I have been doing a lot of research on Telstra (since I am using the service), and from what i gather from this forum its not a popular stock.

From doing my homework I thought todays share price would be a great buying opporunity for the following reasons:

1. TLS is cashed up and in this market thats really important
2. I think if any company can survive this downturn it would be TLS
3. Like Woolworths it is a defensive stock and for reasons 1 & 2, but unlike Woolworths in my opinion it is quite cheap (made a new low cause of the ex dividend and the share price is cheaper than other stocks which may or may not survive this recession/depression.
4. With regards to Growth, TLS is supposed to be the leading telecom in Aus and I read that the Gov would have to pay TLS to use its infrastructure in going forward with the NBN and TLS bought some companies in China and I read somewhere they are going to try to penetrate that market.
5. The dividends would be more secure in comparison with other companies and the yields are not bad.
6. If we are coming out of the recession then I could understand that money would be moving to growth stocks because TLS do not have rapid share movement but from all indications and what i have heard from the news that the recession is only going to get worse and "we ain't seen nothing yet" as stated by some economists, so I would think that TLS would be a good stock because of reasons 1,2 & 3.

If anyone can give a newbie some insightful advice on why TLS is either a good stock or bad stock, it would be most appreciated.

Sorry for the long read and thank you in advance

[oldblue]

Hi, hem.

Now this is not advice because posters are not permitted to give advice. So it's just my opinion or as they say here, IMO.
Personally I'm not a great fan of TLS. Main reasons are the heavy capital cost of ongoing development and the potential for govt intervention/regulation. I realise that any messing with TLS would risk alienating the affections of voting shareholders but if the crunch came I wouldn't want to take the risk that the interests of the relative few would be favoured over those of the majority non-shareholders. Not saying it would happen but the world of telecoms is littered with govt interventions.

In favour of TLS is that it is a steady earner with a great yield and selling at a reasonable P/E for today's conditions.

You will be aware of the need to diversify your investments, ie not to put all your eggs in the same basket/company. That's easier said than done of course and one has to start somewhere/funds are limited. The classic solution has always been to start with a managed fund which spreads the risk for you. I'm not a fan of that, preferring to take and stand by my own decisions.

Happy investing!

[hem9]

Hi, hem.

Now this is not advice because posters are not permitted to give advice. So it's just my opinion or as they say here, IMO.
Personally I'm not a great fan of TLS. Main reasons are the heavy capital cost of ongoing development and the potential for govt intervention/regulation. I realise that any messing with TLS would risk alienating the affections of voting shareholders but if the crunch came I wouldn't want to take the risk that the interests of the relative few would be favoured over those of the majority non-shareholders. Not saying it would happen but the world of telecoms is littered with govt interventions.

In favour of TLS is that it is a steady earner with a great yield and selling at a reasonable P/E for today's conditions.

You will be aware of the need to diversify your investments, ie not to put all your eggs in the same basket/company. That's easier said than done of course and one has to start somewhere/funds are limited. The classic solution has always been to start with a managed fund which spreads the risk for you. I'm not a fan of that, preferring to take and stand by my own decisions.

Happy investing!

Thanks for your expressing your views and at least I learned more about the stock, I guess in this kind of market if possible government intervention is the largest possible problem then I guess it is not so bad.

[Rainmaker2000]

Hey Hem9........as a relative newbie, you may not go far wrong with TLS but in this market, there are some incredible stocks which are superior to TLS and the market has dealt with more harshly.........if you can believe TLS has been one of the better performers in the last year.......

I probably reiterate the comment below....you may just want an index managed fund or something.............if you want to become a great invester, then learn a lot and stay away from any of the so-called wisdom you read in newspapers and magazines

For example: TLS is not cashed up but actually has quite a bit of debt, but not too much................there is really no such thing as a defensive stock, your best defense is a stock that grows earnings quicker than another..........dividends matter little compared earnings and free cash flow......

The best stocks in whatever economic climates are the stocks that are growing earnings quickly and selling at a relatively low valuation.........TLS does not excel on either count but is not a dunce all the same.....

[hem9]

Hey Hem9........as a relative newbie, you may not go far wrong with TLS but in this market, there are some incredible stocks which are superior to TLS and the market has dealt with more harshly.........if you can believe TLS has been one of the better performers in the last year.......

I probably reiterate the comment below....you may just want an index managed fund or something.............if you want to become a great invester, then learn a lot and stay away from any of the so-called wisdom you read in newspapers and magazines

For example: TLS is not cashed up but actually has quite a bit of debt, but not too much................there is really no such thing as a defensive stock, your best defense is a stock that grows earnings quicker than another..........dividends matter little compared earnings and free cash flow......

The best stocks in whatever economic climates are the stocks that are growing earnings quickly and selling at a relatively low valuation.........TLS does not excel on either count but is not a dunce all the same.....

Thank you for sharing your views, that is why I joined this forum because of you guys very insightful opinions. With regards to your comments, all I really have to learn with is magazines and newspapers. I guess when I mean defensive I mean that it has not fell as much as other stocks and the sector is not traditionally affected by the slow down. In my opinion, based on the climate growth stocks have lost at the very least 50 - 95% and since the immediate future looks worse I am kinda scared to place my money in growth stocks such as financials, real estate and maybe airlines. I guess if the "recession" was ending I would be braver.

I also think that the valuation for a "defensive" stock such as TLS is not too bad since turning ex dividend the share price is in its lowest price for 12 years from what I heard.

[oldblue]

I'm not really a Technical Analysis type but if there's one lesson I've learnt, at great expense, over many years of investing it's not to buy a share because it's trading at a 52 week low, an xyears low, or an all-time low.
I've achieved much better results from exercising a bit of patience, not being tempted to " pick the bottom ", and waiting for some strength to be shown in an uptrend in the shareprice.
In fact, taking a hard look at stocks that make new 52 week highs, perhaps taking a small position and then buying into further strength has often proved to be a profitable strategy. After all, SP movements merely reflect the combined knowledge and sentiment of market participants, some of whom will know a lot more about a particular stock than I do. All this is subject to doing my own research and analysis but TA is a useful tool to overlay on my results.

Just IMO!

:)

[Rainmaker2000]

Hem9, I get the impression you are excited and interested in stocks.......which I think is awesome.......I doubt I would have any success in market if it was not a massive passion......

Australian Financial Review or BusinssSpectator website are great sources>>>>>books are the best however

Try Common Stocks, Uncommon Profits by Philip Fisher........he was arguably the inventor of the 'growth stock'........but of course he did not call it that..he just wanted to describe the best stocks...that is a term others have used and abused..

There are no blue chips either.......every company and even stock is unique.....and that is why people can make heaps on money on the market by knowing the differences..........not just between sectors but stocks

Example of stock at moment: my favourite salmon farmer has more than halved in price since correction.........it is on track for lifting earnings by 40% this year, after a good half year, after lifting earnings for the last 4 years and it has detailed plans to lift earnings every year out to 2015..........it may be a 'growth stock' but really, they grow salmon, kill it, sell it, people eat it

[hem9]

Thanks guys for helping a guy down on his luck and for sharing, will act on all your insightful "opinions".

[oldblue]

Getting well off the subject of TLS here but Rainmaker's favourite salmon farmer sounds very much like Tassal - TGR - to me. I have it on my watchlist too. SP is well beaten down so I would like to see a bit of an uptick before buying.
Also of interest is TGR's biggest shareholder, Websters - WBA - who hold 25.9% of TGR with a market value of $65.6m. Now WBA's own market capitalisation is only $38.7m which would appear to make them extremely attractive! The problem is that WBA is a small, thinly traded stock, also trading in a bit of a rut. It's also on my list for signs of an upturn in the SP but extra caution is warranted, IMO, due to its small size and limited marketability.

:)

[Rainmaker2000]

hehe, your onto me Old Blue....not very vague..my understanding there are only two Salmon farmers in Australia now......Huon is unlisted and Tassal fills out the comfortable duopoly

Unlike TLS, the regulators care very little about Tassals massive market power....practically owning the domestic supply of Aussie Salmon....and now having a stranglehold on import supply into this market......and cause they are now apparently Tasmanias 2nd largest private sector employer, the Tassie government seems to be bending over backwards to consolidate their market power even further.......:rolleyes:

[jancha]

TLS is getting hammered. Big sellers & not so big buyers. I thought this would have been a relative safe share at 3.30! Any thoughts on why the down trend? News of a super fast broadband & the costs?

[brianwh]

Suggestions by posters on another forum that short sellers are at work. Is there somewhere you can access a list of big sellers and or big stock lenders?

[vincent191]

According to the list provided on the ASX website, only 15% of TLS turnover is due to short selling. It is a bit higher than usual. I am not saying that this is the cause for the tumble in the SP, I am only responding to the above posting.

[Uncle Festivus]

Suggestions by posters on another forum that short sellers are at work. Is there somewhere you can access a list of big sellers and or big stock lenders?
That's good - they have to buy them back some day, 62M gone through today!

[joeyr46]

TLS is getting hammered. Big sellers & not so big buyers. I thought this would have been a relative safe share at 3.30! Any thoughts on why the down trend? News of a super fast broadband & the costs?

been a downtrend for years just not as steep as some, usually has something to do with reality Technically it broke out of a big consolidation a few weeks ago and whilst it may bottom anywhere I'd like to see a bottom form probably take a good while but could rally sharply with all the short sellers

[jancha]

Hi Old Blue,
You were saying that you would look for a sign of an up trend in order to buy into a particular company. Unfortunately I've been buying TLS on the way down & now find myself in a position where im stuck with them or sell at a loss. I've noticed of late that when TLS shares have gone up in sp on moderate buys it gets to a certain rise only to be hit with larger volumes of sells to fall back down. This suggests to me that the sp will eventully fall further. Would you agree with this line of thinking or does short selling come into the equation? If so could you explain what & how short selling works? As i'm day trader with not much experience i'm considering in selling at a loss on the basis of the large sells. As I'm fairly new at this your opinion would be appreciated.

[oldblue]

Hi jancha.

I'm no expert on short selling - which involves borrowing shares and selling (shares you don't own) in the hope/expectation that the price will fall and that you're able to buy back at a cheaper price. I don't have the temperament for that.
Also I don't really give more than a passing nod to Technical Analysis, except to check from the charts that anything I'm interested in isn't trading in a downtrend. It's taken me a long time to learn not to buy in those circumstances - trying to " catch a falling knife " - with a very poor chance of getting the timing right.
As far as Telstra is concerned, it doesn't appeal to me right now, for various reasons. Having said that, it's a strong company with a dominant position in its industry and paying a good div. If I held them I wouldn't be selling.

:)

[Bluebeard]

Any chance that TLS could slide to such a point where the Federal Government may decide to buy back the company in a takeover or a major mediacomms company comes in with a takeover proposal? Its a very big bite ... but TLS has some brilliant assets like Bigpond etc.

[oldblue]

I don't see that, myself.
The govt has got too many other things to spend its money on and too many other priorities for its attention. Besides which I doubt that there would be many political brownie points in such a move, and a lot of potential downside.
Big international telcos are similarly pre-occupied with keeping their own heads above water.
It would be a real "black swan" if it happened, though!

;)

[drsmith]

I also can't see the government buying it back.

Imagine the political ammunition that would give the opposition.

[jancha]

Thanks for that Oldblue. I almost sold at a big loss but decided against it. I guess i wont be day trading for awhile. When you say it doesn't appeal to you right now for various reasons...can you explain in more detail as to why or is that getting to complex as involves reading charts? Just trying to understand why you don't like it & at what point would you like it. I do know one thing tho that i struggle with the charts... for example with the candle stick charts what do the colours represent eg. a green line or a brown line? Does the green represent a buy & the brown a sell for example? Maybe there is a site that you know of that i could go to to look into it in more depth?

[Trembling Hand]

The reason traders don't like it is for the obvious. It's going DOWN. Making new lows. traders don't like to waste money or time so they buy stocks with momentum in the direction they can make money with. Not momentum that's going against them.

I would sudjest you do some research on what the hell you are trying to do because from the comments you are lost.

basic candle stuff here,
http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/candlestick.asp

[Trembling Hand]

Suggestions by posters on another forum that short sellers are at work. Is there somewhere you can access a list of big sellers and or big stock lenders?

Yeah good one that. As usual totally wrong though!!!!!

Shorts are at 5% of issued shares......... nothing for the 4th largest company considering most would be arb plays.

Just as a comparison BHP is a 11% its not the shorts that are doing damage.

[nunthewiser]

for whoever is under the misguided idea that shorts are killing TLS :D


http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt


shows transactions a day in arrears but a handy lil tool nuntheless

[joeyr46]

for whoever is under the misguided idea that shorts are killing TLS :D


http://www.asx.com.au/data/shortsell.txt


shows transactions a day in arrears but a handy lil tool nuntheless

Thanks for that didn't know where to get that. Correct me if I'm wrong but usually high percent of shorts usually occurs near bottom not top of trend
And if so TLS has a long way to go down (Potentially) because noone believes it will

[nunthewiser]

Thanks for that didn't know where to get that. Correct me if I'm wrong but usually high percent of shorts usually occurs near bottom not top of trend
And if so TLS has a long way to go down (Potentially) because noone believes it will

Uh? dunno about that ........ TLS will do what it will , just no point fighting the direction ....... dunno about stats etc etc but ME personally will short ANYWHERE within a trend if i feel theres a buck in it for me .ie a dip OR a longer term fall ......dunno prolly one of the more suffistaicated posters here would know the stats of the matter but me personally it dont matter will short anywhere as long as i think its due a drop

[canaussieuck]

Uh? dunno about that ........ TLS will do what it will , just no point fighting the direction ....... dunno about stats etc etc but ME personally will short ANYWHERE within a trend if i feel theres a buck in it for me .ie a dip OR a longer term fall ......dunno prolly one of the more suffistaicated posters here would know the stats of the matter but me personally it dont matter will short anywhere as long as i think its due a drop

I think he could be alluding to the contrarian value of the data. Sometimes its also used to indicate when a short squeeze could take place, as happened with Seek last year.

Cheers,


CanOz

[Uncle Festivus]

Anyone looking at the div yield, and the maintenance of such 'going forward"? Above 10% now - taking off thongs to test water temp of the big pond? :D

[M34N]

Anyone looking at the div yield, and the maintenance of such 'going forward"? Above 10% now - taking off thongs to test water temp of the big pond? :D

It's actually funny because as I was reading last Sunday's Herald Sun recommendations for stocks, one broker had a sell on TLS because they suggested basically that if the markets go up, TLS will go up only a little, but if they go down, it will go down hard, so why bother? Had me chuckle!

But technically speaking, this one looks scary and has hit lifetime lows from what my charts tell me, but $3.00 looks pretty technically important on the charts and wouldn't touch this until there is a sharp turnaround similar to what happened to MQG a couple weeks ago, I'm looking for an inverted hammer on the charts. :2twocents Good luck to those bottom pickers, again one bad night on Wall St is all it takes...

[jet328]

Anyone looking at the div yield, and the maintenance of such 'going forward"?
Exactly, their cash flow doesn't cover the dividend. From memory they had to borrow $1bn for the last dividend payment

[vincent191]

What is going on with TLS? The SP seems to have gone into free fall. There does not seem to have too many short sellers to have such an impact, so you cannot blame it solely on short selling. The volumne is high too, looks like someone is dumping a large amount of scrip onto the market.

Is their failure to put in a complying bid for the new broadband network really have such a big impact? This new network is still only an election promise and there is no guarantees that it will go ahead, with or without TLS.

Further, TLS is still off the opinion that the project cannot go ahead as planned without TLS. Me like millions of others who hold shares in TLS are puzzled. When is ASX going to issue TLS with a speeding ticket?

[oldblue]

I doubt that the ASX will issue a speeding ticket. It's not that the SP has taken a sudden dive but rather that its gradually lost altitude.
TLS has a few issues around it at present but is, arguably, one of the most openly discussed stocks on the ASX as befits its size and wide shareholder distribution.
Just not the sentimental favourite at the moment.

[YELNATS]

What is going on with TLS? When is ASX going to issue TLS with a speeding ticket?

A ticket for speeding? More like when are they going to be issued with a ticket for reversing down a one-way street.:D

[nunthewiser]

For what its worth .......... i have entered a TLS long today at 2.99 as a trade ONLY

yes ... fighting the trend! silly ! reckless! :D only in for a bounce .TIGHT STOPLOSS ......

the bishop wishes ya well

[canaussieuck]

For what its worth .......... i have entered a TLS long today at 2.99 as a trade ONLY

yes ... fighting the trend! silly ! reckless! :D only in for a bounce .TIGHT STOPLOSS ......

the bishop wishes ya well

Trying to catch that wedge nun? Good luck. Quite a few down days, you might catch a bounce after all.

CanOz

[jancha]

Thanks for your help on the Candle Stick matter Trembling Hand. As i said in the previous post I don't know much about charts & trading but am trying to understand it as a whole. What I was trying to do was bottom pick TLS as i thought it was good value, low risk ect. I kept buying it on the way down to the point where now i have to sit on them till they come back. Not too smart i guess but It's called a learning process. By the way, spelling is also a learning process. "SUDGEST" is spelt "SUGGEST". Thanks once again for your help.

[kennas]

For what its worth .......... i have entered a TLS long today at 2.99 as a trade ONLY

yes ... fighting the trend! silly ! reckless! :D only in for a bounce .TIGHT STOPLOSS ......

the bishop wishes ya wellCapitulation low maybe, but yes, a stop might be handy. I may join you.....maybe.

Good luck to us .... :)

[nunthewiser]

For what its worth . stopped out of TLS .... the bishop reckons sheet happens and lives to trade another day

good luck to holders .

was a low % loss on stoploss point set out b4 entry

could be wroing and stopped out to early but thats the way the cookie crumbles

[nomore4s]

Massive volumes in the last 2-3 days and today has already done over 120 million and rebounded off todays lows after that ann. Looks like someone with deep pockets thinks TLS could be good value at $3.00.

This volume has brought an abrupt halt the the downward slide, could be worth a punt for a bounce to $3.40ish?

[nunthewiser]

Massive volumes in the last 2-3 days and today has already done over 120 million and rebounded off todays lows after that ann. Looks like someone with deep pockets thinks TLS could be good value at $3.00.

This volume has brought an abrupt halt the the downward slide, could be worth a punt for a bounce to $3.40ish?

Probably m8 .... certainly holding well after that news ........ oh well ya get that , i could always renter . murphys law applys to me on this one i think . IF i,d kept beyond stop point it would have continued falling :) but because i stuck to plan and stopped out .its bound to fly

[kennas]

Massive volumes in the last 2-3 days and today has already done over 120 million and rebounded off todays lows after that ann. Looks like someone with deep pockets thinks TLS could be good value at $3.00.

This volume has brought an abrupt halt the the downward slide, could be worth a punt for a bounce to $3.40ish?Candle is looking pretty good for today at the moment. If it finishes above $3.00 will be a trigger for me to grab the knife. Love bloody hands!

[vincent191]

I sure hope you guys are right. I am holding on by my finger nails.

I cannot understand ACCC's action. What is wrong with a Company trying to protect it's assets by excluding the competition from accessing it's copper network.

The government tends to forget TLS id no longer belongs to the government. It now belongs to it's shareholders, we bought it off the government. So the shareholders are quite entitled to block others from accessing it's network to protect TLS's interest.

[Nero64]

Trying to make sense of Telstra's latest 1/2 year report.

16 B in Net debt
28 B in captial
58% Gearing
1 Bill in Div payouts last year
40 B in assets
909 M in cash
A2 rating negative growth by Moodys

That's quite a bit of debt but it's financials aren't that bad.

Stuff the National broadband deal, it owns the network. If it says somthing you do it. It can bend Optus/Singtel, AAPT, and NZ telecom like a plastic rod.

I work in IT/Telecommunications and this company is the ocean and the rest are pissing in its pond. Excuse the French.

I'm looking to buy Telstra. Not yet though. People are getting out in droves. Remember Wesfarmers and Westfield. These companies are off there lows and they have worse balance sheets.

Be paitient and wait.

[tommymac]

I cannot understand ACCC's action. What is wrong with a Company trying to protect it's assets by excluding the competition from accessing it's copper network.

The government tends to forget TLS id no longer belongs to the government. It now belongs to it's shareholders, we bought it off the government. So the shareholders are quite entitled to block others from accessing it's network to protect TLS's interest.

The Howard Govt made the mistake in the first place by selling the infrastructure. Everyone knew that TLS was a monopoly and ACCC cannot allow a monopoly if it is not in the best interests of competition and consumers.

Therefore TLS are actually not entitled to block others from accessing the network if it prevents competition.

I say split the company and then I may look at buying into TLS Infrastructure.

[brianwh]

Something that seems to be missing in the analyses on this thread is the "Conroy factor". Our 2 previous ministers seemed driven by idealogy and sometimes pettiness and generally didn't seem up to addressing the issues associated with telecommunications. But Conroy seems to be taking this to a new level. He is coming across as a vengeful apparatchik schooled in the factional tribal infighting that so defines Labour Party processes. My fear is that the NBN decision will be as much driven by a determination to show TLS who is boss as it will be to produce a modern world standard telecommunications system available all Australians. If this means destroying the value of holdings of 1.4 million shareholders (including the Govt), well tough!

[kennas]

Price action encouraging last Friday, but didn't drag me in. Watching for support this morning to make a call on short term trade off it's potentially oversold condition. Could be a reversal signal on the longer term chart. If it does bounce, I can only guess at a potential 50c gain to that significant resistance at $3.50. No other signals that I can see. Stop under $3.00 I suppose.

[kennas]

Price action encouraging last Friday, but didn't drag me in. Watching for support this morning to make a call on short term trade off it's potentially oversold condition. Could be a reversal signal on the longer term chart. If it does bounce, I can only guess at a potential 50c gain to that significant resistance at $3.50. No other signals that I can see. Stop under $3.00 I suppose.I failed to mention that gap at $3.30 ish and Dec low which will also be a problem I think. If it does head up, expect a pause there. I'm in for a short term trade, finger on the sell button at break down $2.90. Finger on the buymore button on break through $3.80.

[shag]

talking of telstra, i was talking to a mate who worked for them or such yesterday, hes a top elec enger(enginer).
he said it would be sad if telstra got broken like telecom nz, as its a great place to cruise, and get fat(doing nothing apparently).
i think hes eyeing up the future, when all he needs is a desk and job title as an excuse to leave the wife and kids for a while...

[kennas]

Fingers clean so far.

But gloves still on.

I've got no idea what the volume really means but I hope that it's exhaustion of sellers and then a lack of sellers which is causing this short term support.

I still hold hope for the bounce to make $3.50 but I usually have no idea. Happy for an EW'er or a funnymentalist to provide some analysis...

All I can do is have a stop and think that it's oversold..... eeeek :eek7:

[nomore4s]

Kennas I've moved the stop on my trade up to $3.09 now, so well above b/e. I risk getting stopped out early but it was only a short term trade anyway.

I think a break above $3.20 may see prices run a bit, but atm I can't see $3.50 being breached without some sort of retracement. I already have an order to sell in at $3.45 but may move it if the price action is strong above $3.20.

[nunthewiser]

yeah well traded guys ........ in hindsight the bishop reckons his stops were too tight on his entry but hey thats how it goes ... was an entry with a low% loss on stopoints .......

well done anyways

[nomore4s]

Nun probably more to do with the timing of the trade than the stops imo - in a day or so early. With this sort of play you need to keep the stops tight. I just got lucky with my entry.

[rick62]

TLS can be curious to try to follow. Maybe someone out there has a resaon / theory why TLS drops from around $3.28 to $3.04 [as of now] in about 6 days - and in an up market. People looking for better growth elsewhere?

[kennas]

TLS can be curious to try to follow. Maybe someone out there has a resaon / theory why TLS drops from around $3.28 to $3.04 [as of now] in about 6 days - and in an up market. People looking for better growth elsewhere?Punters moving out of the 'save havens' maybe, or that they are going to lose some contract worth a few quid. I bought the knife and it's about to start bleeding, so time to put a bandage on it, for me maybe.

[oremo]

As you said Kennas, is there some huge contract they may lose or something something else under the bonnet?

Beats me

John Stanhope delivered an address to the Credit Suisse Asian Investment Conference in Hong Kong last week,

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20090326/pdf/00939597.pdf

The address outlined clear goals. Understated income and produced a number of worst possible scenarios. TLS still looks good long and very much undervalued. Even if you underestimate the dividend it still looks good.

Does anyone out there REALLY know?

Anyone out there who can offer unemotional feedback?

Please note the word "unemotional".

Give me facts not fears or emotions or "gut feelings"

I upped the ante today at $3.03. Based my decision on available and provable FACTS!

Cheers:2twocents

[prawn_86]

Give me facts not fears or emotions or "gut feelings"

I upped the ante today at $3.03. Based my decision on available and provable FACTS!



Thats the problem, the stockmarket is a leading indicator, so it will price in what it thinks will happen to the stock in the future.

If you are buying now only based on facts and not forecasting in anyway then you are behind the curve imo :2twocents

[oremo]

I hear what you're saying about the market dictating the value prawn_86.

I've looked at the stockmarket and it's indications. Felt like I was in a TAB looking at the horse prices up on the screen and reading the tipters comments on the newspapers pasted on the walls before laying a bet

I understand that point of view if one is a trader. Traders have a short-term mentality. That's not a criticism. It's the nature of the craft. Simple buy & flip. Great if you're good at it.

My argument is.....what the stockmarket thinks is only belief...not entirely based on numbers and facts. It's fear, suspicion, scepticism, mass hysteria and, coming to a stockmarket near you real soon,....optimism.

I have forecasted TLS's great current value based on facts. Not the stockmarket. Only thing I refer to on the stockmarket is the current price. That's why I bought again.

What is the REAL VALUE? That's the question

Cold, level-headed facts should win the day - long term.

Am I missing something? Illuminate me.......please.

Cheers:2twocents

[prawn_86]

Cold, level-headed facts should win the day - long term.

Am I missing something? Illuminate me.......please.

Cheers:2twocents

What you are missing is that the facts can change dramatically, even on a long term fundamental outlook. What the market is essentially doing is pricing in a sum of all the probabilities of things happening.

Yes there is fear and greed, but that fear and greed is what determines peoples probabilities of outcomes.

So in theory, your analysis should have at least considered a couple different scenarios and you should keep evaluating with every news item to see if the company fundamentals change.

Just my opinion. Hope that helps a bit :)

[drsmith]

It will be interesting to see how the SP responds to the upcoming NBN tender announcement and whether there's too much negativity currently factored in.

[oremo]

It will be interesting to see how the SP responds to the upcoming NBN tender announcement and whether there's too much negativity currently factored in.

Read the report I previuosly posted. Long term, will it matter? TLS is a healthy standalone business. It's plugged into every building in Australia.

It's globally focussed as well. Looking to China. I don't know about you but if I want to plant vegies, I'll look for some fertile land to plant in. I'm looking for good yields for my crops.:2twocents

[Trembling Hand]

KRUDD is building the network.

No one won it!!

Telstra back in the build if they want. to be up to 49% private owned

[jancha]

Hi,
Anyones thoughts on the Goverment building their own NBN? How will this effect TLS sp down the track?

[Trembling Hand]

Hi,
Anyones thoughts on the Goverment building their own NBN? How will this effect TLS sp down the track?

I would say the bigger effect will be this ann from the gov,

"comprehensive review of Telecoms Regulations"

[bloomy88]

Wow, what a turn of events.

Krudd must be joking if he thinks that the government will make the NBN cheaper than a private company though, all those lazy government beaurocrats must be rubbing their hands together at the moment.

A good result for Telstra though i beleive, means their competitors cant dominate the market and the government will probably sell it to Telstra in the end anyway...

[Jackob]

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25331701-15306,00.html

Telstra open to break-up

Michael Sainsbury and Jennifer Hewett
April 14, 2009

TELSTRA will consider a voluntary separation of its wholesale and retail arms as well as the sale of some assets to the federal Government's proposed $43 billion broadband network in a spectacular about-face that effectively dumps the aggressive four-year strategy championed by chairman Donald McGauchie and chief executive Sol Trujillo.

The radically different and more conciliatory approach is part of an attempt to ward off the threat of much greater government intervention in Telstra's business. The company's board has set up a special committee of directors and executives to come up with a new approach and to negotiate with the Government.

The committee, headed by Mr McGauchie, will focus on how best to respond to the Government's twin announcements that it will build a $43 billion high-speed fibre-to-the-home broadband network and will pursue a comprehensive review of regulation that includes the prospect of forcing Telstra to sell a range of valuable assets.

Although company sources say it is too early to tell which options Telstra will pursue, the move signals the company's acceptance that its long-running war with two consecutive governments has backfired, and it must find a way to adapt to the new reality.

News of Telstra's plan comes as Malcolm Turnbull argues in The Australian today that the new broadband network will be able to operate only with a massive government subsidy - probably for most of the $43 billion. "Unless we (completely unrealistically) assume that the vast majority of potential customers take up the Rudd net services and that they will pay very high monthly fees in the order of $150 to $200 per month, there is no way that Rudd net can deliver a commercial return on $43 billion of investment," the Opposition Leader writes in an opinion piece.

He likens the proposed spending to the failed business case for Sydney's cross-city tunnel, which cost nearly $1 billion to build but went broke, with shareholders losing their investment.

Telstra's new committee does not include Mr Trujillo, who is due to leave the company on June 30 but is spending even more time than usual travelling overseas. As well as Mr McGauchie, its members are directors John Stocker and Peter Wilcox, with chief financial officer John Stanhope, business head David Thodey and new head of marketing Kate McKenzie.

The options under consideration would include Telstra selling some of its existing fibre assets into the new network in exchange for a minority stake in the new majority government-owned broadband company.

Canberra wants this to reduce the likely cost to taxpayers of the proposed network, as well as the complexity of building it over eight years.

The Government is arguing that the current regulatory system of limited operational separation of Telstra's wholesale, or network, operations has failed to encourage viable competition to the dominant player, and quick action needs to be taken.

That makes the potential splitting of Telstra's wholesale and retail businesses likely to be the most immediately sensitive issue to be considered.

A government discussion paper on regulatory reform, released last week to coincide with the national broadband network announcement, asks for submissions on a range of options to reduce Telstra's dominance and ensure the success of the network. These include "functional separation", under which network operations would be ring-fenced as a separate entity but still owned by Telstra.

The network arm would have its own management and accounts, and would treat everyone who uses the network, including Telstra, equally in terms of information access and pricing.

Under pressure from the regulator, Britain's former monopoly carrier BT Group agreed to a separation of functions in September 2005. Telecom New Zealand went down the same path early last year.

Last week's discussion paper, which also canvassed the option of forcing Telstra to sell part of its fibre cable network, suggested the British and New Zealand experience had been positive for customers and not necessarily bad for shareholders.

Mr McGauchie had railed against the prospect of even a mild form of further separation. Telstra insisted it would continue to fight any such proposal because the impact on the telco would be disastrous.

But the Government's decision to fund the national broadband network, and the implicit threat it would consider dismembering Telstra, have led to a big shift in attitude at the top.

The new mood is that the best way to protect shareholder interests is to co-operate in negotiations with the Government to restrict potentially damaging government actions.

The special Telstra committee was formed a few days before the Government's announcement last week, reflecting the understanding that a drastic change in its approach to government relations was required.

"It is clear that the discussions and negotiations with the Government on the national broadband network will occur over an extended period of time and will continue well beyond my tenure as the company's CEO," Mr Trujillo wrote to all staff on the day of the announcement.

"Accordingly, we have put in place arrangements that will provide continuity in our NBN engagement with the Government. We have established a joint board-management committee, which is capable of conducting these negotiations and discussions over the extended period during which they will occur, over coming months and perhaps years."

Mr Trujillo said that knowing more about the Government's long-term broadband plans would enable Telstra to deal better with any strategic options that must be considered. But it is clear Mr Trujillo will have virtually no role in developing the new strategy and rolling back the formerly aggressively unco-operative Telstra approach.

Mr McGauchie and Mr Stanhope held a long-planned meeting with the Prime Minister's office last Wednesday, and Mr McGauchie has cancelled a business trip to China this week to concentrate on Telstra's NBN response and the selection of Mr Trujillo's replacement.

As well as looking at a short list of external candidates, the board is considering a list of internal candidates, including Mr Stanhope, Mr Thodey and Sensis chief Bruce Akhurst.

[ands]

Would a breakup be a good or bad thing for Telstra shareholders? The share price hasn't be knocked around too much since talk of a break up started.

[drsmith]

That's because it was knocked around beforehand.

Telstra need to kiss and make up with the government. Then, hopefully they will be in a better position to discuss future arrangements.

[trading_rookie]

KRUDD is building the network.

No one won it!!

Exactly, the only good thing for TLS is that they're back in contention to be part of a partnership ie NBNCo. As mentioned, TLS owns valuable assets like the exchanges that will route the optic fibre across Oz. The government can play hardball with TLS and introduce regulation to take ownership, but considering the number of voters in the country who are also TLS long term holders I doubt that's what they'd do. If anything, they'll be offering TLS a strategic position within NBNCo. that will see the assets either sold to NBNCo. or do what SingTel did with their assets and lease them to the government.



Telstra back in the build if they want. to be up to 49% private owned

Typical Rudd hypocrisy during the launch...having a dig at the previous government for selling TLS, then making mention that NBNCo. will be a fully public company within 5 years...doush-bag.



A good result for Telstra though i beleive, means their competitors cant dominate the market and the government will probably sell it to Telstra in the end anyway...


The gov is replacing one monopoly with another, ie TLS for NBNCo. I wonder how they're going to deal with the conflict of interest of being both the regulator and wholesale owner?? TLS will only dominate if their sold or leased assets to NBNCo. give them a greater say in the new partnership of TLS, Optus, Maquarie, AAPT (Telecom NZ), Vodafone/Hutchinson, etc, etc.



Would a breakup be a good or bad thing for Telstra shareholders? The share price hasn't be knocked around too much since talk of a break up started.

Talk of a breakup has been mentioned ever since the launch of T3 - re-read the prospectus. It'll be a good thing if we end up getting shares not only in the incumbent (TLS) but in NBNCo. as well. How cool would it be if for every 1 TLS share you have, you're entitled to 1 NBNCo. share ;-)

According to BT and Telecom NZ, a break-up of their businesses by their respective governments has seen a disastrous affect on their share price...can't see TLS letting go of Foxtel and the HFC Broadband business without some kicking and screaming...unless the government offers them a sweetener...sweetener's however more often that not have a use by date, usually the election of a new government.

An analyst commented that if the NBN can't be made to work at $10 billion what makes Rudd think it will work at $43 billion? According to the analyst the return will take forever unless the pricing model is very expensive. That of course can't be true, since it was meant to be affordable to everyone.

The original idea was to lay fibre to the pillars - those grey stumps that one sees on street corners, and then it was to utilise the copper wire running from the pillar to every house, business, etc connected to that pillar. That's been scrapped since they'd have to compensate TLS (figure is roughly $3 billion) and the technology to do this would be out of date in the not too distant future and have to be replaced. This non-upgradable idea would have cost them $13billion.

The problem with fibre to the home (FTTN) is they're going to have to dig up streets and footpaths, and for those with telegraph poles, there will lbe bureaucratic red tape as most councils think there is enough wire hanging off them already. The government has yet to decide who will pay for NBN to flats and units - as the cable will probably go to the basement and then use existing copper wire via a new technology called VADSL (cousin of ADSL) to every tenant. For those buying in green belts you'll be slugged an extra $5K for the installation of ducts in anticipation of NBN....all this in 8 years and two federal elections.

[Jackob]

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25345919-15306,00.html

Telstra chairman's future uncertain

Mitchell Bingemann | April 17, 2009

THERE'S no doubting that, come June 30, Telstra will have a new chief executive, but the fate of the telco's chairman Donald McGauchie is not as certain.

The tide of disapproval has been steadily building behind Mr McGauchie since Telstra was dumped from the Government's original national broadband network tender process in December, sending the company's shares into a downward spiral.

While a lot of the blame for its exclusion was dumped on outgoing chief executive Sol Trujillo, the blame game has started to shift to Mr McGauchie, who has become the face of the company since the Government reinvented the national broadband network and invited Telstra back to the negotiation table.

With regulatory reform looming and the possibility of functional separation on the cards, Mr McGauchie has his work set out for him if he wants to see through his term as chairman to 2011, analysts say.

Despite the challenges ahead, White Funds Management investment manager Angus Gluskie believes that Mr McGauchie's recent conciliatory approach towards the Government could bolster his chances. "The market on the whole can be too fast at times to turf people out, which can be a very destabilising change and the fact that McGauchie has taken a new tack is evidence that this is someone who wants to change and someone who might be able to develop new productive relationships with the Government," Mr Gluskie said.

But analysts say it could be a case of too little too late for the chairman.

"The Government's stance shows they are sick of Telstra's aggression," one analyst said. "The past has happened and now it's about doing whatever is best for the company."

This week it was revealed that Telstra's biggest shareholder, the Future Fund, had also been distressed by the telco's aggressive stance towards the Government and the regulator, and the telco's subsequent poor market performance.

However, analysts say that the Future Fund's chairman David Murray will have little say in what becomes of Mr McGauchie.

"When David Murray took charge of the Future Fund, McGauchie negotiated that Telstra's market performance would not dictate the chairman's position, so on those counts he should be safe," one analyst said.

"McGauchie's time is up but I don't think the Future Fund will have any say in that."

Industry speculation is running rife on possible replacements for Mr McGauchie, but three names keep rearing up above the rest. While some back former Telstra Countrywide boss and Acacia head Doug Campbell as a possible candidate, others are behind former Wesfarmers chief executive Michael Chaney.

However, in order to take the role Mr Chaney would be required to give up his seats on the boards of NAB and Woodside Petroleum.

Another hotly tipped candidate is current Telstra board member Peter Willcox, but he too has his share of hurdles to pass. Mr Willcox is a former board member of James Hardie; a current ASIC case against James Hardie's non-executive directors could wipe out his chances.

[oremo]

What's happening now with the SP? Is it fear, uncertainty?

Anyone in the (REAL) know?

Appreciate some feedback

Cheers:banghead:

[Real1ty]

What's happening now with the SP? Is it fear, uncertainty?

Anyone in the (REAL) know?

Appreciate some feedback

Cheers:banghead:

Imo there is a lot of people getting out of defensive stocks and into riskier growth stocks.

If we start a leg down, i think TLS will move up again but that is not fact of course, just my opinion.

[ROE]

Did I post sometimes ago about their transformation project?
they come, they pillage and they go :-) ..the truth now surface.

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25571447-15306,00.html

[sqwark7600]

Did I post sometimes ago about their transformation project?
they come, they pillage and they go :-) ..the truth now surface.

http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,25197,25571447-15306,00.html

From that article: “Our national account executive was genuinely shocked because all the info at the top end is that (the) Siebel (billing system) is working well. He was also amazed (must be an excitable chap) at the operators who put you on hold and then disappear (hullo-this is Telstras signature tune). He even said that if he had to deal with that on a daily basis, he would be looking for another career," the dealer said.”

And therein lies the problem. Customers are moving to another supplier for high-end products. They’ll keep the copper line but won’t give T more opportunities to hang up for any other product. I recently moved house and it took me 15 calls and two weeks just to transfer the copper line and retain my old number to the new address in the same suburb. Call centre CSO’s ranged from the Gold Coast to Perth. I wrote the usual letter of complaint but like most decided it was a waste of time explaining problems to an organisation who seems bent on self-destruction by incompetence.

Of all people ex-IBM employee CEO David Thodey should be able to sort out a simple billing system. The market will continue to reward the company's inability to run a customer oriented telephone company by continuing their efforts to equate TLS share price to the last dividend.

[iASX]

My research group, iASX, is just about to publish a new target price for TLS, which I'm sure you'll find proves to be much more meaningful than flawed DCF valuation...


Best,
iASX

[sqwark7600]

My research group, iASX, is just about to publish a new target price for TLS, which I'm sure you'll find proves to be much more meaningful than flawed DCF valuation...


Best,
iASX

My research group iDUM is just about to ask your research group iASX do you expect a rush of subscribers, lured by your golden beacon of share trading wisdom, to now rush out and buy ignoring our beloved but "floored" DCF valuation.....miASS! Say hullo to the groupies.

[YELNATS]

Telstra's new $2.20 fee per transaction to be introduced on September 14 when you pay each of your bills at a post office, or at a Telstra shop or by mail, seems a bit over the top.

As I understand it, the only way to pay them fee-free is via the internet using B-Pay direct from your bank account. If you pay over the phone using a credit card you are slugged a percentage fee based on the payment amount.

I can see an outcry over this, especially from pensioners/older people who don't have access to a PC or the internet - ie. the poorest among us who can least afford to pay the impost.

Hardly behaving as a good citizen, Telstra, thought you were going to reform yourselves after the departure of the 3 amigos? !!?

[awg]

Telstra's new $2.20 fee per transaction to be introduced on September 14 when you pay each of your bills at a post office, or at a Telstra shop or by mail, seems a bit over the top.

As I understand it, the only way to pay them fee-free is via the internet using B-Pay direct from your bank account. If you pay over the phone using a credit card you are slugged a percentage fee based on the payment amount.

I can see an outcry over this, especially from pensioners/older people who don't have access to a PC or the internet - ie. the poorest among us who can least afford to pay the impost.

Hardly behaving as a good citizen, Telstra, thought you were going to reform yourselves after the departure of the 3 amigos? !!?



Pensioners are exempt.

I dont think other beneficiaries are though, not 100% sure.

As per others posts, there billing system still seems buggy

have had some "integrated" billing problems with our business account.

One thing that may be saving their ass is that Optus are even more hopeless.

I get calls on an almost daily basis on our various phones, from service providers, really frustrating, when you are trying to trade, and deal with genuine business calls.

and because the third party providers rely on these two, changing providers on an integrated account is problematical

[trainspotter]

Was with Telstra for 15 years with mobile phone. Got Optus sales jerk one day who had me at at weak moment. Swapped carriers. Optus was far worse billing and coverage. Swapped back to Telstra. Optus sent me a bill for $5.00 for late payment on account. Receipt on payment evidenced otherwise. They stuck to their guns and demanded their $5.00. I advised I would pay them $5.00 and 10 cents. This would cause their computer to go into overload and send me a credit for 10 cents for the next 2 years. Man at Optus said FINE. Sure enough. In an envelope was three bits of paper from Optus EVERY MONTH for 2 years evidencing my 10 cent credit. The finally sent me a cheque for the amount once they woke up I was no longer with them. Morons.

[NedFlanders]

Was with Telstra for 15 years with mobile phone. Got Optus sales jerk one day who had me at at weak moment. Swapped carriers. Optus was far worse billing and coverage. Swapped back to Telstra. Optus sent me a bill for $5.00 for late payment on account. Receipt on payment evidenced otherwise. They stuck to their guns and demanded their $5.00. I advised I would pay them $5.00 and 10 cents. This would cause their computer to go into overload and send me a credit for 10 cents for the next 2 years. Man at Optus said FINE. Sure enough. In an envelope was three bits of paper from Optus EVERY MONTH for 2 years evidencing my 10 cent credit. The finally sent me a cheque for the amount once they woke up I was no longer with them. Morons.

hahahaha!!! Worked for Optus for almost 10 years - billing systems are an absolute mess. Now they are charging to send invoices. will be changing carrier at the end of contract.

[Miner]

Was with Telstra for 15 years with mobile phone. Got Optus sales jerk one day who had me at at weak moment. Swapped carriers. Optus was far worse billing and coverage. Swapped back to Telstra. Optus sent me a bill for $5.00 for late payment on account. Receipt on payment evidenced otherwise. They stuck to their guns and demanded their $5.00. I advised I would pay them $5.00 and 10 cents. This would cause their computer to go into overload and send me a credit for 10 cents for the next 2 years. Man at Optus said FINE. Sure enough. In an envelope was three bits of paper from Optus EVERY MONTH for 2 years evidencing my 10 cent credit. The finally sent me a cheque for the amount once they woke up I was no longer with them. Morons.
I got a debt collector's notice for recovering $1.24 from Optus when in 1994 I changed my residence from Melbourne to WA (no Optus was in bush) and the bill (thanks to Australia post) failed to be redirected to my new address at minesite at the first place.

Telstra is not the best but still they listen to complaints and recently gave me credit for big pond (three months rental :)) when my wife complained to Ombudsman for Telstra's own fault. The manager spoke with me long time, profuedly apologised and then on her own gave me the credit to say SORRY.

Optus did nothing in 1994 when they sent me the debt collector's notice and attempted to charge $63 for collecting back $1.24:mad:

For mobile you go to any bush or minesite it is only NEXT G works. When you really need a mobile to help you unfortunately it is only Telstra which comes to use. I switched from Telstra Mobile to 3 but now in a process going back to Telstra after contract finishes.:banghead:

Do not hold Telstra share however:D

[trainspotter]

It seems Telstra has us by the tail when it comes to coverage ! It might take 37 minutes for them to get a human at the end of the phone when you call them BUT at least they listen. All to no avail I am afraid. Had an incident whereby I was OS and the mobile bill was not paid. I thought I had setup internet bank transfer whilst I was away. Got a text while OS saying bill not paid etc. Ever tried to call Telstra OS and it takes 37 minutes to get a human to talk to? Bill was escalating rapidly. Came back to debt collector and contacted Telstra with reason for non payment. THEY DID NOT GIVE A TOSS. Apparently it is your responsibility to ensure you pay their bill. Even when the mail goes missing. Or you are dead apparently.

[YELNATS]

As per the Telstra website:

Quote
Exemptions may apply, including eligible pensioner concession card holders.

Fee-free options are available to help you avoid these fees.
To avoid these fees, use an electronic payment option, such as one of our Direct Debit options or BPAY®, to pay your bill from a cheque or savings account.
Unquote

There are plenty of people, old and young, who don't have internet access and who are not pensioners - they will be disadvantaged.

You could opt for Direct Debit, but who would trust them, as I agree many of their bills are inaccurate.

[jasonator]

Was just wondering if anyone knows what date i would use for aquiring the Bonus Telstra Shares for CGT purposes??

My online trading account shows it as being the 19/11/2006 (the date the instalment receipts were issued), but I thought that the date would have been the date the bonus shares were issued?

Can anyone clarify this/direct me to where i can find this info.

Cheers!

[Buckeroo]

We'll no ones saying it so I will - well done Sol.

10% profit rise in the worst economic scenario the world has seen since 1929.

After franking, dividend yield at around 11%. If you bought in at $3 what a cash cow you have found.

Cheers

[Rainmaker2000]

Agree, no one stands up for Sol when at least he and his US cronies knew about telecommunications technology and adding to the consumer bargain...and shareholder value...most aussie punters don't believe or don't care about above.....but for many who matter, like IINET chief executive and Optus management, they have reiterated how well Sol did in this regard

People like Ziggy Switowski and the new dude only seem to know only about how to work Telstra for its No.1 stakeholder.....the government....

I do however think it was appropriate to put the current CEO in charge cause after the NBN debacle....Sol had definitely served his purpose...It was clear TLS was never going to be an autonomous corporate identity...TLS infrastructure would be compulsorily resumed anyway.......so why not have a government type smoozing up to get the best deal

In the years to come, the irony is that TLS businesses will all be the businesses that were not even on the agenda before Sol and his cronies arrived......say what people like about them.......but there are not many legacies left by the wasteful and incompetent former TLS managements......just poor overseas acquisitions and fat dividends funded by debt

and $7 billion free cash flow next year will be an incredible phenomenon across corporate Australia in general.......what a novelty to fund dividends out of free cash flow!!!

Good onya Sol, sometimes it takes a wanker to get a good job done.....:)

[johannlo]

That may be true but if the books are so great why the SP slide then.

It must be really hard as an incumbent with dominant infrastructure to use your market size to crush the competition.... not. Yes I realise ACCC constraints, and he didn't great getting around them didn't he. Crash or crash through? I thought we learnt that lesson already

Adopting super aggressive US style corporate standover tactics in Australian old boys club govt-business relationship style = epic fail.

IT transformation completely ----ed up the creek.

Guaranteed PSTN cash cow slowly drying up and hopelessly incompetent at seizing the day w/ VOIP or pushing VOIP solutions backed up by our superior backend infrastructure (better 'pipes' if you will). I'm an onsite engineer (professional services) and the stuff our customers want to do is stuff that the idiots in HQ haven't even dreamed of yet.

Outsourcing every man and his dog to India and resulting in horrendous f--- ups both customer facing and internal facing.

THe one tick mark he has got is ramming through the NextG infrastructure, and yes its a BIG tick in my book. But on the balance he was pretty poor esp considering his wage packet.

Having finished that rant, on the other hand it would have been nice to pick up some at 3 as a defensive.... what a super divvy.

And I am telling you they know ---- all about technology. From a strategic POV it is blindingly obvious why build an 'NBN' yourself if your competitors aren't, FTTH or FTTN its just a simple question of what speeds you want to deliver and how much cash you want to spend etc. Basic capacity planning 101 and its an engineer's job not an accountants' (the accountant gives you the budget, the engineer tells you what you can do with that budget).

Maybe I'm biased as I'm from the engineering side of things (yes telco engineering.... routers and switches and VOIP)

[Rainmaker2000]

I do agree with much of that.....agree that share price has not looked like it benefited yet...but then its performed okay in the meltdown...but the buss is now on a growth trend whereas it was not......it's consumer facing with focus on broadband and wireless

It may sound crazy, but I think Sol's ridiculously over the top combatative style served the purpose and got the result for TLS shareholders.......I always thought, in a way TLS never wanted to build NBN but knew it was always the 'elephant' in the room....

Was it ever going to be seriously possible for TLS to build and operate NBN......I think the answer was always no..........what was the result achieved......the taxpayer will be building an over the top $43 billion build.....Sounds like a great result for TLS to me.......for the whole industry actually

Agree, transformation not seemless.....apparently IT is a real basket case

But the growth Sol got on Mobiles and especially broadband left me completely shocked

On broadband, TLS was adding customers at a quicker rate to rivals, actually gaining absolute market share...........this was a bit shocking since their product and deals are so inferior to the competition

I don't ever remember being a TLS customer, why would you be...........I now have VOIP from IInet......phone and internet for $50 flat a month....absolutely gorgeous........which is part of why I'm an IINET shareholder........but the average consumer could not give a stuff about VOIP or saving money or better service....I've never understood it....TLS is certainly not the worst buss in the top 10......but obviously IINET is a far better investment case I think.......

[johannlo]

IInet has a significant risk attached due to the copyright lawsuit its fighting. Bad luck that they got targeted, it could easily have been internode or any of the other major tier-2 ISPs. Agreed they seem to run an excellent shop - but any tier 2 carrier has razor thin margins and not owning your own bearers causes a lot of pain that the tier 1 guys don't have to deal with.


Back to the topic (shares) agreed TLS is looking sound as a defensive, but in this market why would you do it unless you are completely over exposed (I am already well covered w/ 25% of portfolio by WBC and QBE). The momentum in the telco market is definitely with Optus, observe recent iphone driven performance, another case of TLS missing the boat.

[Wysiwyg]

This David Toady (;)) is a polished spin doctor hey. Rubbing his greedy mitts together in readiness for a massive salary.


While the comparatively meager pay packet may disconcert the new chief, Thodey will have the opportunity to increase his annual package to as much as $9.2m with bonuses if he hits short and long-term targets.

[freebird54]

Rivkin report just came out with a buy due to latest news f/fund sell off
I did - lots for div and big yield
ex dividend next week
recently Share analysis gave a 4.14 target and eureka 4.03

Would like to do covered calls but premiums are poor

[YELNATS]

Rivkin report just came out with a buy due to latest news f/fund sell off
I did - lots for div and big yield
ex dividend next week
recently Share analysis gave a 4.14 target and eureka 4.03

Would like to do covered calls but premiums are poor

Yes, I've done the same thing today with purchases on 2 of my accounts. Bought in at $3.50, with an 8% pa dividend + franking credits. Hope it doesn't collapse on Monday when it goes ex-dividend.

[Aussiejeff]

Wow!!

Check out the $2.3Billion trade first up this morning.

More of the gummint's Future Fund dumping, perhaps?

[JWR]

If I buy Telstra on Monday, will I still get the dividend? I think it will go down on Monday due to the Dow Futures being down so I'd rather buy it Monday if possible rather than today - if I can still collect the dividend?

[YELNATS]

No.

As indicated above, on Monday it goes ex-dividend, on Monday it goes ex-dividend. (100 chars)

[Real1ty]

Wow!!

Check out the $2.3Billion trade first up this morning.

More of the gummint's Future Fund dumping, perhaps?

That's what it was.

Sold to UBS who have offloaded it to fundies for 3.47 ps.

future fund can't sell any more for 3 months at least.

[vincent191]

Possible TLS <$3 next week. I rather wait at the side line for the next 2 weeks for the dust to settle. I sold today at and forgo the dividend and avoid the fall next week.

Next week fall it surely will by how much is the $64 question.

[drsmith]

Possible TLS <$3 next week.
If that's based soly on what happened with the interim dividend you will most likely be dissapointed.