HDR - Hardman Resources

[Lucstar]

Hi guys, i've been browsing around for some stocks lately, not to buy, but just to further familiarise myself with the market. I've dug out two stocks that seem to be filled with potential. I'm probably wrong and thats why i here asking for your opinions. Well the first is TZL (TZ Limited). A combination of the prospects for the US economy in particular, TZ's contractual agreement with Textron and the cost-saving potential of TZ's technology. Currently selling for 72cents. It might just be a good buy. Next is HDR (Hardman Resources). I've seen this stock be mentioned quite often. What do you guys think about these two stocks?

[RichKid]

Hi there,

So, someone with similar stocks in mind. Well for Hardman, this is a very volatile time to buy in. For a fundamental analyst HDR is trading at a very high speculative level. Also, there is news expected from recent operations next month (September). Get ready for a rocky ride- unless it's all positive.
I'm happy to keep going for a while but I would prefer another stock for more upside. There are call warrants HDRWMI which may allow you to spend less but with higher volatility.

As for TZL, check out the big dive on Monday! Must be the uncertain nature of the agreement and things not being finalised. I looked (and looked) at the stock when it was below 50c but didn't buy in! got distracted with other stuff and forgot how near the agreement was. But if it goes any lower I reckon it'll be a bargain as the market may have just been surprised by the delay.

PLEASE NOTE THIS IS JUST MY PERSONAL OPINION, NOT A RECOMMENDATION SO BE CAREFUL! I'M PRETTY MUCH A BEGINNER IN STOCKS!

RichKid

[RichKid]

Looks like Hardman has been rewarded for getting drilling underway, price is approaching $2 again- still a subdued share price considering that it was just below $2.50 no so long ago. It'll be a rocky ride unless ALL the news is positive (which is unlikely).
I got into HDRWMI (call warrants) to get more leverage so I hope things work out well or it'll be a tough ride!!

Anyone else watching HDR closely?

RichKid

[stefan]

I'm holding HDR here. Speculating on some good news from Mauritania. I think the stock is not that risky to hold for anything other than daytrading. It's well below its high and I would regard it as good value under $2. Got some at 1.91 and now I'm waiting for the action...

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[RichKid]

Hi Stefan
I must agree with you about HDR being reliable (especially in light of what I mentioned earlier) but in the short term things may get a bit rocky, but as you suggest, if we look to the horizon rather than tomorrows intra-day prices it'll be a good bet.
I just saw an article in the Asian Wall Street Journal (9Sept): Don Voelte, Woodside's chief executive said the first exploration well, in the Dorade prospect, may be a dry hole. The article comments that that may be an attempt to hose down over enthusiasm about the drilling. Voelte suggests that Dorade is an all or nothing prospect (ie either zilch or "it opens up a whole new area"). Volatile times ahead- those who expect perfect results may panic, the main thing to watch out for is volume. Eitherway I'm holding on for the next few weeks at least!


RichKid

[RichKid]

Well Hardman has finally pulled out of that short term channell it fell into but it has yet to make the support line it was staying above before the political problem surfaced.

From memory, $2.12 is about where it needs to close above to get back into that uptrend. I'd hate to think what a dry well at Dorado-1 would do to the price but there are always other wells that will come up trumps, eventually. Hopefully the current shareprice fully reflects the sovereign risk that investors were spooked by- but it's hard to tell.

RichKid

[RichKid]

Hardman- Hopefully the current shareprice fully reflects the sovereign risk that investors were spooked by- but it's hard to tell.

RichKid

Just saw an article in today's Financial Review (17Sep):
'Risk premium proves easy to brush off'
about how this type of risk is built into share prices, not detailed but worth a quick look.
RichKid

[RichKid]

Let's see if I can post a HDR chart...

RichKid

[RichKid]

Yippeee!! It works, here's a more detailed one showing the recovery. I couldn't draw any trend lines, but from what I've measured the price re-established its support line once it closed above $2.12. It has some way to go before joining the upper channel (where it was before the big fall) though.

Has everyone read the Ted Ellyard briefing, announced this week? Looks like another week or so before some detailed news starts to flow. Anyone know why the stock jumped to $2.30 before settling at $2.19 on Friday? Must be becasue the trend has recovered (so far) and things are hotting up.

RichKid

[stefan]

As a holder of HDR, I'm of course pleased to see it recovering slowly. I guess Friday's sell off was just in line with the profit taking activity that happened all over the market. Oil prices are still near record and this can only mean good news for HDR. Together with the potential of their Mauritania drilling program, I'd say it should climb back to 2.30 this week where it has a bit of a resistance to break. Real news from Mauritania won't be out before early October so there's a bit of a build up period.

I consider selling anywhere above 2.30 if the stock manages to go there this week. I would like to cash in on a nice run with this one and because it's all time high was 2.48 I would expect some up and downs happening around that level. I can't figure out how much upside potential a drilling success would create for HDR. If anybody did some thinking about this, I'd welcome your comments.

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[RichKid]

Hi Stefan,

Glad to hear from a fellow Hardman follower. I'm with it for the longterm but I will take part profits from time to time. I use HDRWMI warrants to get leverage (they expire in December). As far potential upside and early exists, IMO about $2.40 is the minimum for an early exit on existing news but any good discoveries may make that look silly. ($2.50 to me is a strong psychological level but I haven't done any charting to test the patterns). Be ready for big falls on bad news but don't panic.

As for valuing potential discoveries, please see a recent article in AirReview (one of my favourite journals, I've mentioned it a few times on this site already) www.aireview.com about broker valuations for Woodside and Hardman (just put Hardman in as a search term and you will find lots of good articles). Each of the prospects is given a valuation in terms of share price rerating. BUT, this stock is likely to outstrip any conservative estimates IMO.

Please note that I'm a beginner in stocks and although I can't make recommendations I do like Hardman.

I'll write more later, hope this help.

All the best,
RichKid

[stefan]

RichKid,

Thanks for the link. The reports are very upbeat about HDR and should they really find something in Mauritania (expectations seems to be very high), then a jump of about 35 cents would seem reasonable for HDR. Reflecting that to a boilant oil market, I'd say it could be well worth ignoring any temptations to sell this week. So I'll reconsider my sell target. The upbeating forcast for 2006 seems to underline the potential in HDR.

All the more reasons to keep a close eye on it.

Thanks again and have a nice weekend

Stefan

[stefan]

Interesting article regarding high oil prices and resource stocks.

http://www.sundayherald.com/44938

Happy trading

Stefan

[stefan]

And so OIL is continuing its way up, now just short of $50.

Interesting article:
http://www.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=businessNews&storyID=6345889

After thinking about HDR I would speculate that a positive result of the drilling will make this stock go MUCH higher than just a couple of cents. While speculators will undoubtfully push the price higher in advance, I'd say there is quite a lot of potential in HDR. (And ROC for that matter, but ROC seems to have a much smaller share in this program.)

Unfortunatelly high OIL prices will send the rest of the market down for the next couple of days, maybe having a dramatic impact on the world's economies, especially the fragile US. This could easily lead into the biggest depression the Americans have seen for a while. Anyway, this isn't the place to discuss this.

It's not looking good. It really isn't.

Happy trading

Stefan

[markor]

Article on Woodside: ( sort of related to HDR :) )
http://afr.com/articles/2004/09/27/1096137166982.html

Interesting to note that Woodside shares hit a record high yesterday.

Markor

[stefan]

Oil was more than $50 last night. If only my car would run on something a bit more efficient than petrol...

This should all be good news for oil stocks. I'm still expecting some major problems for stock markets around the globe if this goes on. And it just looks like it will.

http://olympics.reuters.com/newsArticle.jhtml?type=topNews&storyID=6357170

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

Hi Stefan,
Yep it's having an effect alright. But it'll probably spike like this from time to time. I've been following the long term pricing models for oil and people were stubbornly modelling in prices below 25, now they've finally come around to about 30-35.

Those articles you mentioned were quite interesting- thanks. Just checked out HDR today, looks like alot of people are hoping to exit at $2.30. There's a fair bit of support at $2.20 in the short term. Just read some of the bios on the HDR execs- some real smart people alright (also very rich) (see the report announced yesterday).

It'll be an interesting couple of weeks with results coming in...

[markor]

It'll be an interesting couple of weeks with results coming in...
Its been an interesting day, with HDR dropping to 2.14 in a few hours
:(

Markor

[stefan]

Its been an interesting day, with HDR dropping to 2.14 in a few hoursA rather quick dump to 2.10 and then all the way back up to 2.18. Somebody must have sold out at market. Wondering why... Will be interesting to see where it closes. Anyway, I'll just keep holding until the drilling is over.

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

Maybe some nervous nellies decided to take profits and started a small run down. The buying was quick after that and it's back in that uptrend channel again, good to see the support. I suppose traders would have triggered stop losses and the investors would either be just waiting or topping up on weakness. Or maybe new hands are entering as I've noticed a few brokers covering the stock again, now that the drilling has started.

Eitherway it doesn't matter as this programme has a long way to go yet, I'm just waiting to see how much it spikes when they find oil.

[markor]

Another article talking about HDR:
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/09/28/1096137238713.html
I'll be holding on for a few months yet.

Markor

[RichKid]

Interesting article Markor, looks like brokers are still disagreeing on which price to use for their models. One thing is for sure, you can expect some big spikes from time to time. It's also a good thing we don't drive too many luxury 4WD's downunder.

Hope we're all strapped in for the ride, this'll be the first month of real results.

[stefan]

Hope we're all strapped in for the ride, this'll be the first month of real results.Very true! I'm holding and I'm well strapped in for the ride, so bring it on!

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[RichKid]

Here's another reason to stay in.

Locally listed Global Petroleum recently announced it's spin off for the Falklands prospects (can't recall the exact name (Falklands oil and gas?)- and guess who else is there? That's right, HDR. Since everyone is concentrating on Mauritiana they sometimes forget that there are so many other areas that HDR will be working on in future. Multiple exposure with a single holding in HDR, although less leverage since HDR is now much bigger than when it started.

So any news from the Falklands will impact on HDR as well. And there are many more prospects dotted around the world.

(BG Group is another interesting co but they aren't listed locally.)

Hope everyone has stop losses in place, no stock should be allowed to fall too far. This'll be a tougher call for investors (as opposed to traders).

[stefan]

If HDR should be able to find oil as long as the price is above US$50 (it just closed over $50 for the first time) then the share price will skyrocket. I have no doubt that this company could become a major player in the Australian oil market. They yet have to deliver proof that there is oil in the many places they are digging for it but chances are that they will hit the jackpot on least at a few of those rigs.

It is going to be a bit of a strange ride with lots of risk and potentially big drops in price whenever there is a failure. In 2 months things will be much clearer. From this week forward we should see the first drilling results being released so stay tuned...

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[RichKid]

Saw some interesting comments on a broker chatsite (Comsec) about HDR having a sizeable holding in Pan Pacific Petroleum PPP via Equitas nominees. I tried to verify this via checking announcements but since I'm not that good at research I couldn't find it- so consider it unconfirmed till I can find more info.

The person on the site reckons HDR may takeover PPP instead of buying into PPP's areas (somewhere in NZ) if it becomes attractive. PPP is only 14c so it'll be cheap. I'm alwasy suspicious of rumours but it's interesting to note, again, that HDR isn't just a Mauritiana play. BTW, PPP hasn't been going up on takeover rumours so it may be a deadend. PPP has spiked from time to time but only due to news from its own operations.

Let me know if anyone comes up with anything different.

[stefan]

Rich,

From the HDR website:
Hardman has purchased (on market) 10,000,000 ordinary shares in Pan Pacific Petroleum NL ("Pan Pacific"), a petroleum exploration and production company listed on the Australian and New Zealand stock exchanges. Pan Pacific currently owns 43% of the producing onshore Tubridgi Gas Field in the Carnarvon Basin, Australia and during the year it was involved in two oil discoveries from wells drilled in each of the Carnarvon Basin, Australia and the Taranaki Basin, New Zealand. This investment is considered medium-term.

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

Thanks Stefan, silly me for not looking in the most obvious place!

[RichKid]

I'm getting bored waiting for the news so here's a chart comparing HDR with the warrants HDRWMI (low liq, expire 23 Dec 2004). I hold both.

Might dump some HDR and buy more HDRWMI if there's a bad news. I'll have to time each transaction properly though, might get tricky. HDRWMI at 31c and HDR at $2.17 on chart.

[RichKid]

Sorry about the chart not appearing, I wanted to use BigCharts but they don't show HDRWMI so I'll have to use the FatProphets site, not as nice as BigCharts but it's free and better than nothing. (I tried StockNessMonster (Joe's favourite) but it only shows very basic data).
Well here it is.

[stefan]

HDR:
And so we finally have some pretty good news emerging from the drilling program in Mauritania. I'm certainly pleased to read today's report :D

This stock has some major potential and I'll keep holding for a while.

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

Yes, nice to see it moving. Hopefully this news will attract new investors too. The price is settling just below $2.30 at the moment but it may break $2.30 over the week if expectations rise. What I'm surprised at is that it didn't scoot through $2.30, I suppose it shows that the holders of HDR are a bit more cautions now (and dare I say it 'mature'), probably the sovereign risk premium helping to reduce volatility, also, it's still just the start of the drilling campaign.

I'm really waiting on the Dorado results, it's high risk but the rewards are commensurate.

One of the better known brokers had HDR's NPV in the low $2.20's last month so this is a conservative price level IMHO.

[stefan]

What I'm surprised at is that it didn't scoot through $2.30Yes, there seems to be a massive wall at 2.30. It will just keep trying and eventually it will eat it away. The news are very promising so I'd say it will happen sooner than later. This stock was at 2.5 before it fell and now that there is real good news, it should end up at these levels again pretty soon.

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

Yep, there are some big orders there. Before the fall from its high the price was just going up fast on its own with little reason, more due to speculation. That last bit of action before it hit the high $2.40s was in the upper part of the channel.

At least now it's tied to some news. So less upside but more reasononing so it's better long term. I'll check my charts again next week to see how the price responds to previous levels. I just want it to keep above $2.22 for now (from memory this is the lower support trendline).

The Woodside discoveries made the afternoon papers so maybe more buyers this week.

If only there were co issued options, would've been more exciting than the warrants! I'll have to get into proper options one day.

[markor]

The Woodside discoveries made the afternoon papers so maybe more buyers this week.


There was decent coverage in this morning's AFR as well as in The Age: http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2004/10/05/1096949508856.html

It has been said before but with HDR being a little brother of WPL in the Mauritania drilling project, any limelight that WPL enjoys relating to Mauritania will eventually reflect in HDR's share price.
Despite fluctuating oil prices, http://www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/crude1.html
WPL's share price has increased in general over the past 5 years.
http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=WPL.AX&t=5y&l=off&z=m&q=l&c=
In my opinion, the piggybacking of HDR on WPL can only be advantageous and HDR would enjoy similar growth in the future :)

P.S: I like my links...

[stefan]

Nice day for HDR today! Easily broke that 2.3 barrier this morning.
Ah, this is going the way I like it :D

If they have more good news next week, then I start wondering what sort of new price range this stock will be able to achieve. Is $4 too far fetched if we assume that there will be mostly (but not all) positive news from their drilling program?

Any comments welcome!

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

Hey Rich,

Aren't you glad you didn't sell at $2.30!!! Good to see this one running well.

$4 or $5 or more? Hard to say at this stage, it could go on to become anything. Or may even get taken over before that!

The fact is that when it becomes a producer next year (late 2005 or 2006?) things will change as we'll see real revenue, always makes a difference to how we view a company. Who knows, they may get generous and start giving loyal holders like us some dividends as well. But this drilling campaign has quite some time to go. There are also those other interests around the world which are hard to put dollar figures on at the moment. It's an earlycall but I'm estimating that HDR will break $3 this year.

Did you see the Tiof estimate in AirReview daily yesterday? Once this is officially released there should be more upside next week, unless it gets factored in beforehand in which case there may be some profit taking by a few people on the next daily surge post Tuesday annoucement.

[RichKid]

That was supposed to be 'Hey Stefan',
looks funny when I talk to myself!!!!

[stefan]

Hi Rich,


Aren't you glad you didn't sell at $2.30!!! Good to see this one running well.You bet! So thanks for pointing me into the right direction! I just turned it into a long term investment after reading more about it. At the moment all signs are up and the only real risk is that they don't find oil at the majority of places where they are currently looking for it. That would certainly take the heat off a bit. I'm willing to take that risk.

As you said, there is so much happening at the moment, it could go anywhere. So here I am. Holding and smiling :D

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

Glad to be of some help Stefan, enjoy the pickings. What's really good is that you did some background work and are now comfortable with HDR on your own terms. (I really admire your courage hanging on to MUL- I hope it justifies your faith so hang in there! HDR management are far more reliable)

Rises will now be smaller percentage wise for HDR but it's a good cornerstone stock for the next few years IMO. I'll skim profits off it from time to time as some wells will be duds (and people like me do get bored!).

Dorade is the one I'm really interested in as it's the only one not connected to existing finds. So if they don't find anything it might be dissapointing but somewhat expected. If they do find oil there then it'll be a HUGE bonus and there's no telling how many millions of barrells are under there- that'll definitely send HDR up real fast.

(Hope you had time to checkout the Tiof and Tevet estimates at AirReview daily- that is probably what is driving the price at the moment, it's all about anticipation and excitement till the hard figures come out)

[Lucstar]

Wow, what a week for HDR. What do you guys think HDR will do next week?? Would there be a retracement, becuase nothing goes in a straight line

[stefan]

Would there be a retracement, becuase nothing goes in a straight lineAny pullback would be in the form that we saw today. Which wasn't really a pullback as it still closed higher than yesterday. It just came back from it's intra day high of 2.43. I don't think this stock will fall much until they come up with bad news about one of their drilling rigs.

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[Lucstar]

How far away are we from seeing the final results from the drilling?

[stefan]

There are so many drilling programs happening, you can't put a date on it. The Mauritania project is just one of many others and that alone will take us into the end of the year. There will be news every week. Sometimes it will be substantial and sometimes just an update.

I strongly feel like you sould be patient with this one. We've only just seen the beginning of it and it's looking VERY tempting. Mind you I'm a longterm investor so my targets may be different from yours.

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[Lucstar]

I just checked out the charts and it seems like its forming a double top according to technical analysis. (correct me if i'm wrong). Do you guys think that it will form a double top, which is a strong bearish sign?

[RichKid]

I wrote a lengthy reply to the last few posts but this stupid thing logged me out so I lost it all when I submitted it!
Sorry but here's the short answer.

Dorade will decide if it shoots through as it will open up a new area- a bonus for HDR. Most other results have defined expectatons (see todays announcement confirming estimates) but I expect it to get through the old resistance at some stage. IMO no double top but it's too early to call, volume also picking up. Any reversal will be temporary. I use HDRWMI for leverage. I have visions of HDR becoming an Aussie icon unless it's taken over (but I'm a dreamer). Directors like pocketing cash from a good deal so they may sell some of it's smaller interests in other ventures at the right time but HDR is a global co. and more than just a Mauritiana play. Be aware of you expectations for HDR and realise it is risky, can go down faster than going up.

[RichKid]

Sydney Morning Herald article on Mauritiana campaign 'JV partners hit black gold in Mauritiana'. I didn't realise the column of oil they hit was that significant (ie biggest in Mauritiana to date). Good summary of recent events:

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/10/08/1097089569441.html

[Lucstar]

Does this mean that HDR will open higher than $2.39 tommorrow????

[RichKid]

It's impossible to give recommendations on price for legal and practical reasons, especially since I'm not an expert.

There's always a lot of activity in the morning before things settle so you never know. If you have access to the first few hours opening trades for the last month or two of mondays it'll probably give you an estimate of what to expect. Don't know where to get that info myself. I'm not a day trader so my price outlooks are closer to weekly and monthly trends.

As for that news article it merely summarised information that was released to the market previously. I thought it was a good summary, hence the posting.

My personal expectation is for HDR to go through $2.50 in the next week or two. It is not a recommendation merely my guess.

[stefan]

My personal expectation is for HDR to go through $2.50 in the next week or two. It is not a recommendation merely my guess.
There are several factors that would support this statement.
First, the market will rally tomorrow because of the Jonny winning the election. Secondly, oil is still rising. Third, there is a good chance that we will have more good news from Mauritania on Tuesday.

The only other thing is that there may be some profit taking on HDR soon. It is already fighting in the mid 2.40s and there is a lot of selling happening. Mind you, it has come a long way but the potential for much more is probably on people's mind as well.

I will not sell this one for a quick profit. I have shifted my portfolio and I have other shares that I will consider selling instead. I think it is rather tricky to sell a stock only to buy it back on a pullback. Normally taxes are killing most of the profit you make in between and it is always hard to find the right moment to buy back in again.

If you are not holding HDR but are planning to buy into it this week, then you're going to find it rather hard to decide.

As far as I can see, HDR is mostly strong in the early morning trading and it tends to lose a bit towards lunch provided that there is no news. It can easily open 5-7 cents higher than the day before but it often loses that gain after a few hours.

Just my 2 cents worth of thinking. It could just as well go exactly the other way around.

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

Hey stefan, when you mentioned: "If you are not holding HDR but are planning to buy into it this week, then you're going to find it rather hard to decide." What exactly do you mean?

[RichKid]

As far as I can see, HDR is mostly strong in the early morning trading and it tends to lose a bit towards lunch provided that there is no news. It can easily open 5-7 cents higher than the day before but it often loses that gain after a few hours.

Stefan

I haven't looked at those patterns properly but I tend to agree with you Stefan to the extent that if it moves quickly in one direction in the first few hours it usually does the opposite towards the end. So it can fall off early but recover towards the arvo and vice versa. Best to look at the price for trend purposes near the end of the day when the smart money appears. The good thing going for HDR this week is that last weeks results were great and it has regained some momentum.

If Dorade-1 is good I'll be VERY happy!

[stefan]

Hey stefan, when you mentioned: "If you are not holding HDR but are planning to buy into it this week, then you're going to find it rather hard to decide." What exactly do you mean?Lucstar,
I ment that it will be hard to find a good entry point as the stock has gained a lot over the last couple of weeks. If you are a daytrader then it could be very hard to find the right moment to buy. Mind you it is now close to it's all time high and usually it takes a bit of an effort to break into higher territories from here.

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

HDR has been falling since the begining of the week. Anyone knows whats causing the fall? WOuld this just be temporary? Or is it showing signs of further south movement. I bought in at $2.40 yesterday. Obviously i'm not very happy. Hopefully it will pull up

[RichKid]

HDR has been falling since the begining of the week. Anyone knows whats causing the fall?

I think the price kinda 'settles' in anticipation of good news on Tuesdays (like a dog waiting for a reward) when there isn't much to be happy about it retreats a bit. It may even go back into the $2.20's if things aren't positive. But there are 21 wells in total and I expect it to go through $2.50. If the price does goes south big time I may buy some more warrants HDRWMI's for a quick profit. I already hold HDRWMI's and they give me far more in returns than HDR at these prices, so I don't worry so much about HDR moving around, it's natural. $2.50 is the important level to my mind.

Dorade is high risk by the way but if it comes up trumps then the momentum of last weeks news appear afresh and will propel HDR up fast.

It all depends on your outlook and trading plan, I consider HDR a medium to longterm play at these levels as it'll move around a lot this year.

I've been wrong on HDR in the short term before so don't place too much emphasis on these forums (forums are one of the least reliable sources of info- but there are some nuggets of good too), these are just some personal thoughts which may make you think differently about stuff.

[qqqqq]

any one know any uranium companies which are still cheap?

[Joe Blow]

any one know any uranium companies which are still cheap?qqqqq, please keep threads ON TOPIC! ;)

Also, can you please edit your email address in your profile as the current one is invalid.

Thanks, and welcome!

[stefan]

HDR has been falling since the begining of the week. Anyone knows whats causing the fall?
Well, that would be the profit taking that I was mentioning. Today's news was no news so some people will sell out. For how long it will continue to trade south is hard to tell. There is a hint in today's news that there could be more to come this week about the Dorade-1 drilling which (as richkid has mentioned) is high risk. They only have about 60m to drill and preparations are under way. So we should be in for some news pretty soon.

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

Anyone planning to sell out anytime soon? Whats your criterea for selling HDR?

[stefan]

Anyone planning to sell out anytime soon? Whats your criterea for selling HDR?Lucstar,
let me ask you the other way 'round. What made you buy this stock at $2.40?

Happy trading

Stefan

PS: No, I have no plans to sell anytime soon. I'd rather buy some more.

[Lucstar]

Well stefan, i'm more or less a "buy and hold" investor at the moment. And since i'm very new to the stockmarket (i'm only 15), i fell into the trap of placing an "at market" order on Monday this week. So yer, thats my situations. Obviously, experience comes at a cost.

[stefan]

Well stefan, i'm more or less a "buy and hold" investor at the momentThat may well save you. But if you're a buy and hold investor, you shouldn't be that nervous just because it fell back from where you bought it. You would have your reasons why you did it and you would have figured out if 2.40 was a good entry price or not.

I have mentioned it before. You need to know exactly what you're doing when you invest your money. Getting reassuring words afterwards is not going to help you in any way.


And since i'm very new to the stockmarket (i'm only 15)It's never too early to start! You have ample time to learn. When you make a mistake, you'll learn the most. (I'm not saying you made a mistake by buying HDR).


i fell into the trap of placing an "at market" order on Monday this week.Well, so be it then. Too late to do anything about it. Maybe you should check if buying at market is the best way to buy your shares. I highly doubt it is.

While there is no guarantee that this will work out, there is a lot of potential that would indicate that it will. You bought it near its all time high and it will take a while to get higher. This stock is risky because it is based on drilling and the hope that they will find oil in most of the places. If they do, then the sky is the limit. If they fail, then I'm affraid it will probably take a while until we see $2.40 again. HOWEVER, they have already found oil and the next result is only days away. So the stock is worth more than what it was a few weeks ago. Maybe not $2.40 at the moment but if they find another source of oil, then $2.40 may well look like a bargain. Again, Dorade-1 is considered high risk as it is new terrain where nobody has been drilling before as far as I know.

Overall, you should figure out how much risk you're willing to take and what you can afford. But you should have done that BEFORE you bought anything.
Never buy a stock just because it is discussed somewhere and considered worth buying. It may not be the right one for your own portfolio. (I'm not saying you did that).

I know it doesn't help much. Once you hit that buy button, you start feeling very lonely out there :)

I'm not trying to teach you a lesson here. Just some ideas.

Consider this:
A cat will never just jump at something because it looks tempting. A cat will first check out the surroundings for potential traps and dangers, then watch the target without moving a bit to find out what it does and what it will probably do next. It will create a plan of attack considering all options to be as efficient as possible. During this phase it will not react to anything else that's trying to get its attention outside the scope described above. If the prey flies or runs away then so be it. There will be another one. Once the plan is ready, the cat will attack no matter what. The cat may still fail to catch the prey but at least it made sure the odds were as good as possible.

You have to wait patiently until the right opportunity comes along. Then you put in all you've got to make it happen. You may still fail, but the chances are much better than when you buy whatever share is mentioned somewhere by somebody.

Ah, enough said. I'm overboarding here... :)

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

Thanks stefan. That was truly one of the most benificial posts that i've came across. I will keep your words in mind. The first step is alway difficult and i'm glad i made it early. I may just be losing a couple hundred now. But if i was to make this mistake a couples years later, the loses may be thousands instead. Anyways, thanks for spending you time writing up that post. And hopefully some positive news comes out soon. Good luck to all

[RichKid]

Consider this:
A cat will never just jump at something because it looks tempting. A cat will first check out the surroundings for potential traps and dangers, then watch the target without moving a bit to find out what it does and what it will probably do next. It will create a plan of attack considering all options to be as efficient as possible. During this phase it will not react to anything else that's trying to get its attention outside the scope described above. If the prey flies or runs away then so be it. There will be another one. Once the plan is ready, the cat will attack no matter what. The cat may still fail to catch the prey but at least it made sure the odds were as good as possible.
Stefan

Great analogy Stefan! Brought a smile to my face.

[stefan]

Just bought a couple of 1000s at 2.27. That seems to be reasonable for now. it doesn't mean that it couldn't go lower, but I think it will return above that level soon enough. Taking a bit of a gamble about that Dorade-1 drilling result...

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

Still no news today??? We really need some positive news soon to reboost HDR's momentum

[stefan]

One of those quick selloffs that we've seen before on HDR pushing it all the way down to 2.22. Anyway, why don't you just relax and look at it in a few weeks? :)

HDR is full of potential but it is going to take a while to explore them all. Not to mention that they have yet to start selling oil.

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

Hi stefan, i now i might be building some unneccessary stress. However, this is my first time with shares. So i am very nervous. However, i am trying my best to settle down and play with my mind, rather than my heart.

[RichKid]

Hey Stefan, yeah nice prices now, ridiculously low but that's our stock. If I had to buy in I'd go for ROC on weakness. ROC is to HDR as HDR is to WPL in terms of leverage. But I've got enough exposure to Mauritiana so I'll stay put.

Main difference is that long term HDR is far more predictable after being noticed by the big boys now.

To use your hunting analogy there may be easier game about! HDRWMI's are the only other method (I hold HDRWMI) but they are starting to get close to expiry. If you want to predict price patterns compare HDR to HDRWMI- if the pattern is correct it's time for a rise tomorrow. If Dorade is bad then HDRWMI will fall through the channel.

All will be revealed in a day or two.

Hey Lucstar- relax and see if you can not look at the stock till Monday (assuming you've decided to hold), just a game if you want to play. It'll be interesting to see what goes through your head. I try it from time to time when I get absorbed in a stock and I know that my rules tell me I'm not to do anything.

[Lucstar]

Hmmm, could HDR be developing a double top (strong bearish signal)? HDR closed today at $2.18.

PS: Richkid, sorry mate but i really cant live a day with having something to do with stocks. At the moment, experience is number one priority. Need to fill myself up. But anyways, thanks for suggesting tat.

[stefan]

If I had to buy in I'd go for ROC on weaknessI don't like ROC. I like what I know and HDR is the far better choice for me. IMHO HDR is about to develop into a serious oil business with lots and lots of activity just the way I like a company to be. It also seems far more mature than ROC. You see, I won't invest into the same field twice. So it's either ROC or HDR but not both. I went with HDR and I am very happy the way things are going.

Not to say that ROC is bad. It just doesn't fit into my portfolio.

Happy trading

Stefan

PS: I'm wondering if we'll see some news before next week about the Dorade drilling result. They only had 60m to go so one would think there should be something out very soon. That's the next hurdle for HDR and I guess until then nothing much will happen.

[RichKid]

Lucstar, I understand! by all means keep an eye on HDR if you prefer, especially with current volatility. I see no reason for it to be below $2.20. I am surprised that it's fallen so far without recovering today but maybe some people know stuff we don't- I can't see why Dorade info shouldn't come out tomorrow they didn't have far to drill as Stefan pointed out and there didn't seem to be any other problems.

The fall suggests that last weeks results were non existent! (silly sellers). Value wise HDR was said to be worth $2.22 (approx) by some well known broker before last weeks results (think I saw it in AirReview). Another analyst had it in at around $1.25!! (But their conservative and they've missed most of the gains over the last six months or so too)

Stefan, yep ROC's not HDR, it's different and probably more attractive to TA people like me as it can piggyback on HDR without the same volatility (so far). Just as you've pointed out in terms of your investments I've got enough exposure to the area as well. I wasn't suggesting that you should buy it, just an option to keep in mind. I don't hold ROC btw, I settled on HDR instead as a Mauritiana and oil play.

But to any Mauritiana/HDR watches they will notice that ROC is the only readily accessible stock that has interests in all three areas. It was stuck for awhile but then took off. I think there's another thread on ROC so I wont go on.

As for a double top, with my limited experience it appears to be a temporary reversal. If it falls below about $2.22 I start to take notice as I have a trend support line drawn about there on my chart. A lot of resources stocks have taken hits this week so I use that as an explanation. But it'll pass and they'll all run again for Xmas.

Let's hope tomorrow is a good day but if it isn't there are plenty more in store down the track IMO.

[Lucstar]

can someone please explain what IMO means??
thanks

[RichKid]

can someone please explain what IMO means??
thanks

IMO= In My Opinion
IMHO= In My Humble Opinion

Thought you would have known this being a sprightly 15! But it's always good to ask or you may have thought it was a stock code. Hope you're hanging in there with HDR, you did well to see the early warning signs for the reversal (Double top), the next step is if it's reversing from going up then it must be going down, in which case- don't buy when a stock is falling in price. Normally wait till the uptrend reestablishes itself.

See the psychology of investing thread for some other trading maxims.

[Lucstar]

"Thought you would have known this being a sprightly 15!"

Haha! I spend too much time learning the market rather than chatting on the net. But now i know thanks. And yes i did thought it was some stock code or stock prefex.

"don't buy when a stock is falling in price"
Too late, already bought a begining of the week.

Hope the news is coming today. We really need something good here.

[Lucstar]

Still no news of Dorade-1. Whats going one?

[stefan]

Still no news of Dorade-1. Whats going one?Luc, calm down, relax mate! :D There is news every Tuesday if they don't have something else to say during the week. So it would look like we'll have to wait for that.

I hope you'll survive the weekend ;)

You bet your money on a stock that takes some time to develop. You can't make it go any faster for now. After all it has found a level at around 2.20 and I don't see why it would go much lower for next week (except for some bad news, of course).

Hang in there!

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[RichKid]

Lucstar,
Try to stop thinking of stocks all the time- Daryl Guppy has a section near the end of one of his books on investing and gambling and various things in between and the symptoms to look for. I can't remember which one, see your local bookstore or library. Have a look at it and see if you can recognize which profile you fit and why you are stressing over it. It's very important not to play this like the horses or the pokies. Just chill out for a bit. Speak to family, friends or get a stockbroker! (maybe not the last one!) Just don't let stocks consume your time and your life. It ain't worth it! I'm getting the impression that you have put money you can't afford to lose on HDR. Which is not good. If you can't afford to lose it then wait till you have some more that you can lose without getting stressed. You really need to put in the hard yards and educate yourself. There are lots of books and methods mentioned in these forums.

Good luck and enjoy the (stockfree) weekend!

PS If Dorade is bad, so what!? This isn't a one-well company!!! Keep smiling (but ultimately all decisions about buying or selling are yours)

[stefan]

Comparing HDR with ROC, I would have to say that either ROC is overpriced or HDR is undervalued. Probably a bit of both but I tend to think that HDR is now undervalued at 2.23 and should be trading well above 2.30 even without Dorade results. (Oil is just too hot at the moment)

I guess this will be a very interesting week. Oil prices still at record levels will make sure that any new discovery will get even more momentum.

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[RichKid]

I agree with you Stefan about HDR being undervalued, on the same basis as I mentioned before (ie valuation before the week before last's positive discoveries was about 2.22) after that it should have been more. If Dorade is positive then it should be near the all time high or more. A lot of speculators, short time traders in the stock now IMO.

[stefan]

A lot of speculators, short time traders in the stock now IMO.Rich, we also have to keep in mind that investors are probably waiting to see if Dorade is a dry hole as "predicted" by Woodside Chief executive Don Voelte a few weeks ago who mentioned that this is a strong possibility. So I guess a lot of investors are on the side line at the moment which has taken the heat of HDR. Nevertheless, I believe it is undervalued and any downside after a negative Dorade finding will be short lived.

We'll all be a lot wiser by end of this week :)

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[stefan]

So there we have it. No oil in Dorade-1. Doesn't seem to bother the market that much at the moment. Well, there's more to come...

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

Hmmm, if stefan didn't tell me that HDR made a negative annoucement, i wouldn't even have known just by looking at their share price. Is that a good or bad sign, the fact that the market is not paying much attention to the announcement? Some people have told me that our market is not efficent and therefore have a delay in price reaction to annoucements. Does this mean that HDR will fall dramatically on tommorrow's open?

[markor]

" Does this mean that HDR will fall dramatically on tommorrow's open? "

If that happens then I might have to buy some more HDR again at a good value price :)

Markor

[Lucstar]

Lol dont get too excited Markor. I'm only 15 and so what i predict is not even worth considering and i certainly hope that i'm wrong as well since i do hold some shares inHDR.

[stefan]

Some people have told me that our market is not efficent and therefore have a delay in price reaction to annoucements. Does this mean that HDR will fall dramatically on tommorrow's open?The market can react in two ways. It may drop or it may rise because the bad news is finally out and one can look at what's in store afterwards. With HDR you won't see a drop anytime soon. The market is actually as efficient as any other market and if the news is really worth something (good or bad) then it will react instantly. Clearly investors are looking for other things to come as Dorade-1 was always considered a high risk thing with a big chance that it may not contain any oil.

Happy trading

Stefan

[markor]

It may drop or it may rise because the bad news is finally out and one can look at what's in store afterwards. With HDR you won't see a drop anytime soon.
Stefan

I figured that since there wasn't a real drop when HDR closed yesterday or opened today, that it may be laying low for a while until further substantial news comes in.
Taking advantage of this, I picked up some more at $2.19 today :)
I would imagine that further positive news would definitely push HDR through that $2.40 ceiling again.

Markor

[stefan]

I would imagine that further positive news would definitely push HDR through that $2.40 ceiling again.I sure hope so, too!

There are just too many good things surrounding HDR to exit now. I'll keep it for at least early next year.

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

I sure hope so too!!! Really looking forward to being back in the green again

[RichKid]

So there we have it. No oil in Dorade-1. Doesn't seem to bother the market that much at the moment. Well, there's more to come...

Happy trading

Stefan

Probably didn't bother the market as they factored it in last week (I hope!). So I guess it's back to business for HDR.

[stefan]

FYI: HDR CEO is stepping aside for medical reasons.

I wouldn't expect too many dramas.

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

Whats our predictions now?

[markor]

FYI: HDR CEO is stepping aside for medical reasons.

I wouldn't expect too many dramas.

Happy trading

Stefan

Woodside CFO leaves too:
http://www.thewest.com.au/20041021/business/tw-business-home-sto129628.html

Hopefully this is a minor hiccup aswell.

Markor

[markor]

Here's another interesting article on Woodside - HDR gets a mention:
http://www.tradingroom.com.au/news_research/index.jsp?page=aap_article.jsp?id=81530

markor

[markor]

I had a look at HDR and saw that they were at $2.15 (- 2.3 %) for the day so far.
I also noted that there was a none- market sensitive headline indicated that they had changed their address. Silly me- I didn't appreciate that a company's change of address could influence their share price this much ;)

Markor

[stefan]

The market got hammered today and everything seemed to be losing it. So I'd say people will get used to the change of address pretty soon and things will turn around quickly ;)

Overall it is of concern that things are not looking all that good for economies around the world. Those US figures didn't exactly support Greenspan's view that everything is well on track for a quick recovery. I'm really wondering how long this show can go on.

Anyway, oil remains expensive and stocks like HDR will grow slowly but surely.
At least I hope they will :)

Happy trading

Stefan

[stefan]

As a result we have over $300 million on deposit with major Australian banks, no debt and a major oil field under development. We have enough cash in hand together with an expected bank facility to fund our share of this development all presently budgeted exploration programmes.
Now that's the stuff I like to read about a company I'm investing my money in... :)

17.7cents/share of profit for 2004 with $328 million cash and they haven't even started selling oil. With all the stuff that's about to happend I will have to remain extremely bullish on HDR. The next few months will be most exiting and I am very much looking forward to it.

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

"The next few months will be most exiting" Stefan

Huh? EXITING? are my eyes playing tricks on me?

[stefan]

Huh? EXITING? are my eyes playing tricks on me?LOL, ok... Maybe it was my other half that made me write EXITING. But I REALLY wanted to make it exciting instead, believe me! :D

[Lucstar]

haha...split personality :2evil: :D

[Lucstar]

Just giving this thread a revival breath. How come no one discussing HDR anymore. Hey tech/a, whats your analysis on HDR?

[stefan]

How come no one discussing HDR anymoreBecause there's not much to talk about. They are drilling and they will keep doing so for months to come. Oil has come off the boil for now and not much else is happening in this sector until further notice.

You'll have to remain patient :D Afterall it is your pick for November so you don't want it to explode too soon...

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[Stellar]

HI there
Been following this thread with interest, compliments to all contributors.
Personally, I'm of the belief that this week is going to be very important as to where HDR will be heading in the future. It is currently finding support on a generous uptrending line on the weekly chart, and basically cannot afford much more downside. On the other hand, if it bounces off it and starts heading north, look for a break of Resistance at around 240-250c.
Daily MACD Histogram is vaguely trying to tell is that a change in sentiment might just be in progress.(short term)
Just my point of view! as at 31.10.04. I Reserve the right to change it at any time after today!
Stellar

[RichKid]

Great to have another HDR follower- WELCOME!

Nice to see the chart too. I'm unable to post charts with trend lines but I have a short term line drawn indicating that the price should be around $2.20 or it's bearish for me! Hopefully it'll recover, eitherway I wish they'd release the latest results.

Read in the HDR annual report that they are planning some drilling in Australia for early next year, again confirmation of the fact that it's not just a Mauritiana play, many other wells around the world too. These low prices may see more new investors come into HDR.

[Lucstar]

Down, Down, Down with HDR. How low can it go?

[RichKid]

Theoretically till zero (0) but hopefully it'll find a support to bounce off somewhere before that ;) Just the delayed news that's making people lose patience. very silly, bargain prices IMO.

[Lucstar]

This stock really needs to pull up here. It has already broken its support level.

[stefan]

Bought more this morning at 1.98. I missed the quick drop to 1.93. By the time I got my order in, it was already back at 1.97 :(

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

Well here's the reason HDR has fallen recently- I didn't realise why. Apparently HDR will have its interest in Chinguetti reduced if the the Mauritiana govt exercises an option (HDR gets $$$ to cover its costs but then loses a percentage of its interest in the discovery to the govt- that's my understanding). This is all old news but it's just that the deadline is now approaching (20 Nov) and the articles says with falling oil prices it'll put pressure on the share price and limit upside. I can't see it falling much more though.

Read the article at:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Mauritanian-option-shaves-Hardman/2004/11/03/1099362221641.html

[stefan]

I have increased my stake in HDR yesterday and will put it aside now. It looks very promising for my longterm portfolio and current up and downs in the share price will have no impact on what it's going to be worth in 12 months time. From what I've read in their annual report, I'm very optimistic that this will develop into a nice company with solid numbers backing solid growth.

They have so many sites currently under development, it could even become a hot takeover target once they have it all lined up.


Happy trading

Stefan

[tech/a]

HDR.

My Technical assesment.

Support around $1.90.
stock is ranging between $1.90 and $2.40 ish.

Could do worse buying around the $1.90 and selling
around the $2.30 of a 20% short term play to the long side.
Until it breaks old highs or old lows this is range bound.

tech

[Lucstar]

Up 9 cents today. Haven't seen green since a while

[RichKid]

They have so many sites currently under development, it could even become a hot takeover target once they have it all lined up.
Stefan

YES! That is something that will be a nice little bonus if it transpires! There were rumours of it earlier on (as there always are) but they've dissipated for now- but it is an attractive outfit. Mgmt say they want to grow the Co not sell it but then all you need is a big offer and all of a sudden it's up for sale! HDR is a small bite for a lot of the global energy giants.

(No point speculating at this stage but you never know how things work out- as you suggest Stefan you buy for the solid underlying business and cashflow rather than mrere speculaton about a takeover)

[RichKid]

If this current pattern continues I'd say we're seeing a triangle formation develop. Let's hope it stays above $2, although I have a feeling we'll see a bit more volatility till the option is exercised (before 20Nov) and the latest results and flow rates are known.

Looks like Sterling will go ahead with its funding arrangement with the Mauritiana government. Just when us HDR followers thought we were in for more upside from positive well results (delay in announcing makes me think it'll be average or poor) this option arrangement rears its head. The only positive is that the prospects are so good it's worth buying into (alas HDR loses a bit).

The article in the earlier post said the funding arrangment was announced on 27th October and that the share price has fallen since that day; this current trend may suggest stabilisation around $2.

[Lucstar]

HDR continuing its Southward movement. Where is our support now?? $1.80??

[stefan]

Where is our support now?? $1.80??
Why? I'd still put it at 1.90.

Happy trading

Stefan

[tech/a]

Long term support is at $1.82.

While strictly speaking the most recient low is short term support.
Until breached.

[RichKid]

Looking ominous here, I don't expect any positive news from Capitain considering the delay and last weeks news. As HDR has fallen through minor support levels it's looking more like a reversal pattern- especially this last big rounded top with a little spike in the middle, not even reaching the height of the previous top. Volume doesn't correspond perfectly to a head and shoulders reversal but can't rule it out yet.

Expecially with Gold having a small run people may take money out of oil to concentrate on other sectors. Choppy times ahead. Not much to worry about for the longterm investors. Next major event for HDR IMO will be drilling of areas outside Mauritiana- see Annual Report. Unfortunately this is too far away to help the share price now. Lets hope that ship gets to the next hole fast!

[Lucstar]

Looks like HDR has finally found some solid support. Released some news today saying they raised an additional $2.2 million for the company. I should see that as positive new. And that was a nice little surge/recovery at the end of the day. SHould be an interesting day tommorrow or days to come

[stefan]

Oil at Tiof 4 in line with expectations. Good news.

Mauritanian Govt exercises right to participate. Not so good news but not bad either. I'm very upbeat about this whole thing. Now we have clear sailing ahead without the uncertainty of the right to participate. I'd bet that the price will recover in due time. Accumulated more below 1.9 for the long run.

Happy trading

Stefan

PS: Keep in mind that I'm holding HDR for the longterm.

[Lucstar]

Haha! Just came home from skool to see HDR closing in the green and then released the good news tat was released today. It surely made my day.

[RichKid]

Haha! Just came home from skool to see HDR closing in the green and then released the good news tat was released today. It surely made my day.

Although the news of the Mauritiana govt opton was anticipated it appears earlier news reports had made an error saying HDR's interest had been reduced to about 19%. It's real interest is now reduced to 20.6%. The earlier announcement contained that error and when the amended announcement was made the shares rose- that's my understanding anyway. Did anyone read it differently? Also good to see the latest Tiof appraisal being in line with expectations. We just need a NEW Discovery rather than confirmation of existing estimates at appraisal wells. Not many wells left to go in this lot.

Here's a news article (again showing the incorrect lower percentage- the interest for a different areas was confused with the current area- see the co announcements):

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Govt-takes-12-of-Chinguetti/2004/11/16/1100574465816.html

Let's hope HDR rises, as usual, in anticipation of the next lot of news, if the news is bad it'll re-test the bottom that it's been feeling out recently.

[Stellar]

HI there guys
Next step would obviously be to trade and hold above 200c. If this is achieved tomorrow, it would basically show a positive break of down trending line on the weekly chart, which has a bit more significance as opposed to a daily chart.
Technically, what it has done in the last few days, is encouraging, and if I wasn't holding already and had some spare cash, my system gave me an entry signal on the 11 th Nov with the Pivot point reversal which was confirmed with today's trading action.
Hope it keeps on heading towards the top of the range. There's that word again, I hate relying on 'HOPE' when it comes to trading.
Good Luck and happy trading

[stefan]

I'm remaining VERY positive about HDR. I've added more whenever it took a hit (and it took quite a few) to be ready for the recovery. IMHO this stock should be trading well above the $2 mark based on where they stand with their oil reserves and discoveries. Currently the market is just looking at new results from their drilling program. Once this settles down Mr Market will start looking at the longer term aspects of this company.

We shall see. I'm in and holding for the next 6-12 months.

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

Strong resistance at $2.00. But if it can trade and hold above or at the $2 mark, then it should be fine

[RichKid]

Has anyone kept track of the number of new wells left to be drilled (As opposed to appraisal wells) this year? (Dorade and Capitane were dry). I'll see if I can get some dates and names so we have a rough idea of the trip ahead. The sp dips and rises in tune with the news so if we know ahead we can probably predict where it'll head since we have a rough bottom (About 1.80-1.92) and rough top (2.22-2.35) for the current sideways trend. The real risk for downside is if the oil price dips, current base valuation appears to be linked to the oil price. So if oil falls to $40 we will see 1.80 broken IMO unless there is good news next month.

[RichKid]

Another article on Hardman today 'Hardman strikes oil again and again'-
http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/11/21/1100972252203.html?from=storylhs

Just a summary of activity but worth a look to put the current price in context. A lot of action in the past and much more to come...

[stefan]

Rich, have you put together the number of new wells and appraisal wells? Otherwise I'll check the report again tonight and come up with it. I lost track as I didn't follow it closely. It's in my longterm basket so it doesn't get my attention that often. Anyway, would still be interesting to have a quick update on where they stand.

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

Rich, have you put together the number of new wells and appraisal wells? Otherwise I'll check the report again tonight and come up with it. I lost track as I didn't follow it closely.
Stefan

Hi Stefan,
I've basically done the same as you- I should check it out but have to find the time, detailed research isn't my strong point. As you know I don't spend as much time on fundamentals but since it's hitting a bottom I have to make sure there's a safety cushion when setting my stops and looking at opportunity costs (I normally buy and sell within a few weeks or months- I'm with HDR for the longterm but it means I'll be in and out).

You may be interested in an article in Shares mag (June issue I think) - it had a segment on the best stocks as picked by a number of high profile brokers. One was HDR and Ian Huntley had a valuation based on existing discoveries with oil at $30- from memory the valuation was about $1.24 or $1.35. So extrapolating to the current oil price (and assuming my recollection is correct) the current bottom (at about 1.80) is about where it should be if HDR discovers no more oil and assuming the oil price doesn't drift downwards AND assuming the appraisal wells confirm the estimates.

[RichKid]

Stefan,
About the wells- I have the HDR annual report here somewhere (you must have got it too) must find it, but I don't think they had a detailed chronology of the drilling programme. Must dig out the vital info from amongst all the glossy photos and labels...

[stefan]

Must dig out the vital info from amongst all the glossy photos and labels...It sure is a rather glossy report, isn't it? From all the reports I got this year I must say it's by far the best in terms of layout and appeal. Maybe I should only invest in companies who deliver the most appealing reports. :) Anyway, it's all rather confusing with so many sites and drillings on the way. I'll spend some time later on. It's not urgent for me. My average is at 1.98 and I'll leave it alone hoping we'll see some gains during 2005 when we are getting closer to production.

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

Wow, HDR managed to trade and hold the $2. Even closed above $2. Thats good news from a technical perspective

[Lucstar]

Wow! hdr is trading quite steadily today. Maintaining a price above $2

[stefan]

Oil is on the rise again. After all, it's winter in Europe and the US so demand will increase and stock levels are still 14% lower than last year.

Should be a good thing for HDR even if they will only start selling their oil in about a year's time.

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

A very positive article on Hardman (on the AGM comments). Looks like we've been looking at the negatives for too long, perhaps this is good long term as this maybe the turning point that sees Hardman advance slowly but strongly as a top tier oil stock instead of jumping up like a young speccy:

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Hardman-could-go-another-development/2004/11/25/1101219681047.html

Once the market reappraises HDR look for jumps to levels more in line with future cashflow rather than the discounted bottom end valuation at which it is today (around $1.80). Note that technically this now appears to be a consolidation (rather than top reversal as I first thought) pattern as that support at about 1.80 has been tested twice and has survived, if it survives one more time that'll confirm it IMO.

Oil price increase adds a further safety cushion in line with bottom end valuations.

[Lucstar]

Does anyone know what's behind to sharp fall in today's open? Pre-market trading looked positive. But it seems that the ROC announcement has caused a bit of a fall. However, after reading the ROC announcement, i realised that it was that of a bad news. They said that they had found some hydrocarbons, but its just that is not of economic size. I wouldn't say that that is very bad news. So what made the price of HDR fall on open?

[stefan]

Nothing else but the ROC news release. HDR gets hammered whenever one of their drillings isn't 100% successful. Whether or not further analysis will show that there's more oil than first thought doesn't matter. For now there is not enough oil there so the new is considered bad. Drilling costs a lot of money and each miss will have an impact on HDR.

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

Nothing else but the ROC news release. HDR gets hammered whenever one of their drillings isn't 100% successful.
Stefan

Spot on Stefan, HDR traders are very demanding.

It was a bit disapointing to see $1.80 breached but that was only temporarily. So it looks like that support level will survive again. I don't expect any good news from the tests. Migh as well concentrate on the next well, hopefully we'll hear about that in the next few days.

Also, that base case valuation I mentioned a few post ago was from Shares magazine in the June issue, I just checked. It doesn't make a big difference to me because of my technical slant (and AspectHuntely got HDR wrong anyway in that they went short on it way too early) but it might help underpin that technical support level at 1.80.

[markrmau]

Thinking of buying some HDR $1.84. The only thing putting me off is comsec has it as most popular buy. I guess that theory isn't always correct.

[RichKid]

Stefan,

About the drilling campaign and wells left to be drilled/explored:
see the AGM presentation on the Hardman website for a list of future prospects to be drilled this year and next. It's not detailed but it does indicate that there is a lot more to go, it's still early days for this drilling campaign- it looks to be very thorough. That information should have been released in a clearer format much earlier IMO. The presentation is well worth a look if you haven't seen it already. There's even a well near Australia to be drilled early next year.

The more often it bounces off $1.80 the more convinced I am about the stability of this short term trend.


Markmau,
About the buying today- a lot of people must have jumped in when it was around 1.80 (even went down to 1.77 for very short time). I ignore ComSec and just buy according to my plan (may coincide with Comsec every now and again), I don't need any more HDR at the moment so I wont be buying but this would have been a good time for me if I was underweight in HDR. It's still stuck around 1.85 as we speak, hopefully it'll rise again to $2+ this week.

[markrmau]

I ignore ComSec and just buy according to my plan (may coincide with Comsec every now and again), I don't need any more HDR at the moment so I wont be buying but this would have been a good time for me if I was underweight in HDR. It's still stuck around 1.85 as we speak, hopefully it'll rise again to $2+ this week.

Your right of course. I guess I made enough buying osh at 1.63 to have a punt on hdr at $1.85. However, someone or small number of individuals is feeding lots of stock in at $1.85

[RichKid]

Here's an article mentioning the Merou news. There were high hopes for it as it was estamated at 300+ MMbbls (see the co website www.hdr.com.au). Sotto, Bogue and Petrel prospects still on the radar, if any one of these prospects hits pre-drill estimates it'll be a big boost for HDR. (especially the last two as they have very high pre-drill estimates, 250+ on average). I think I've missed one or two other smaller prospects that still have to be drilled but this summary will do for now.

The article says focus will now move to the Tiof appraisal and Chinguetti development- which is probably good for reducing sp volatility but I reckon the exploration wells may still hold some good news.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Woodside-skips-over-a-fizzer/2004/11/29/1101577418747.html

As for latest news there's an investor presentation by Scott Spencer in Melbourne at midday today (30 Nov) so we will know a bit more about co plans by the end of the day- I hope they present new info without just re-jigging the AGM presentation. The presentation is repeated in Sydney on Wednesday 1st Dec for anyone who'd like to attend, I'd have gone but I didn't get the news in time to schedule it in (see www.hdr.com.au for details).

[markrmau]

Sell order 500,000 at $1.75

Someone wasn't impressed by AGM

[markrmau]

Of course my opinion is worth zip, but if HDR drops to around $1.60, might be a pretty good buy.

[stefan]

It sure got dumped this morning. Sounds like a good buy to me but then again, I've been buying it all along and it just keeps falling ;)

Anyway, I still belive this is a real hot stock for the long term.

Happy trading

Stefan

[stefan]

And so I bought a couple of 1000s more at 1.62 today. I can only hope that the selling stops as of tomorrow...

Happy trading

Stefan

[RichKid]

Yikes, so much for my 'support' at 1.80!!!! Worry now is that the fall was on huge volume.

But it really is excessive IMO- I know of no real reason, only minor bit of news is from the mechanical breakdown during appraisal work. The AGM was last week too so can't be that, this is too sudden. I bet it's something that was said at the briefing (see my post above), but who knows. These are bargain prices IMO, especially with the oil price up there.

The only good point may be that the speculators and traders have dumped the stock and now Investors may move in to add stability....maybe people like Stean who can read a balance sheet and use a calculator. Oh well, and to think it was at 2.30 not long ago!! Anyway this is a good excuse for me to look at my other stocks till HDR decides where it's going to go to next.

[gunclub]

Would i be correct in seeing big build up of buyers for HDR this moring?

[RichKid]

Glad to the see the buying volume today Gunclub, would have been a concern if there wasn't much.

Looks like HDR has been affected by the rumours surrounding Woodside, it's joint venture relationship is a double edged sword. I've posted a chart here showing the relationship between HDR and WPL over the last six months, correct as of this morning. MACD is for HDR.

Last close this morning (about 11.15am was at $1.64.
Change:+0.03 Open:1.59 High:1.67 Low:1.58 Volume: 4,577,210
Percent Change: +1.86% P/E Ratio:9.24 52Week Range: 0.62 to 2.48

You can see that despite the volatility WPL is basically still going up, whereas HDR is reversing trend. Also note the September and mid November breaks to the downside by HDR showing a disengagement from the upward reactions relative to WPL sp.

[RichKid]

Here's a concise article outlining the Woodside rumours:
http://www.thecouriermail.news.com.au/common/story_page/0,5936,11558626%255E3122,00.html

Broker UBS now values HDR at $1.82 due to poor exploration results and current price of oil.

So maybe that support level at about 1.80 will be reached again. Oil was at about 45 a short time ago, together with the appraisal rig failure and the bad news from Merou (AND the WPL rumours) it has been a huge hit for HDR this week. HDR currently testing 1.60 (at midday, 2 Dec 04), hopefully today will shakeout the weak hands holding HDR but the oil price is the danger.

[markrmau]

Very positive HDR sign. It just popped up as a most popular commsec sell. However, the sell depth is pretty bad though.

[stefan]

I keep buying on every pullback. The bad news has certainly sparked a selling frenzy but IMHO that's just going to be a temprary thing. Oil prices are tipped to hit $60 early next year and if they manage to find some more oil, then a run back up to mid 2s will be easily achieved.

You have to be able to hold it for a while though. So keep that in mind when you buy HDR these days. Quick spikes are always possible, but sustainable gains will only be achieved over time on this one.

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

Can someone please explain the reason behind the massive fall recently with HDR? Its so frustrating to see HDR drop lower and lower.

[RichKid]

$1.50 seems the next stop, this is getting silly but you can't fight the market. Might dip closer to $1.40 before long. People are obviously thinking there are better places to put their money for now, this is a Bull market so can't blame em for being picky. Longterm HDR is sound IMO.

[Lucstar]

HDR performed greatly in today's pre-market trading. Buy bids running in like crazy. Its also on CommSec's most popular sell, which i think is a good sign

[stefan]

Oil is going up again. HDR had a nice run today in an otherwise negative market. Will be interesting to see if it can hold and gain for the rest of the week. I remain VERY positive on this one.

Happy trading

Stefan

[stefan]

Wow! There sure was a lot of action in HDR today. Look at the price range!
It even hit my long term stop loss for a moment but this time I got away with it as it happened so quick I didn't even realise it. When I got my alert it was already back up in the mid 40s and now it sits at 1.5.

That would indicate bottom fishing to me and therefore support to keep it above 1.40.

Happy trading

Stefan

[still_in_school]

Hi Stefan,

funny you talk about HDR, just got on the last wave, before the match price. Bought just in on $1.51... though did sell out of WPL, just before the pullback, today we had...

only holding HDR for an overnight trade... though... the market sentiment has changed, though if the technicals are right for HDR... might be the positive reversal, we been waiting to see.

Cheers,
sis

[stefan]

SIS,
I was shifting funds but I missed the perfect buy at around 1.4 today. Oh well. I'm holding enough for what I'm after but it's hard to resist a good opportunity like that one. You're obviously speculating for a jump tomorrow morning. What makes you think this buying trend will continue tomorrow?

I tend to agree with it but the fact that the Ords fell below 3900 makes me a bit cautious.

Happy trading

Stefan

[still_in_school]

Hi Stefan,

last couple days have been trying to technically, time entry into WPL, for long and short intraday trades, but after noticing 2 days in a row that WPL tested yesterday $19.14 and closed on that... today again it tested 19.13, but manage to crawl back and close at $19.41.

but HDR is just a stock, i like, i did buy warrants back some time ago, (though not long after, the stock dropped, and had to sell, as it hit my stoploss on the warrants)

but mainly due to market sentiment, and that tomorrow, i believe we will have a bit of a reversal for the overall market ( 3 days in a row... of watching our ALL ORD's drop) and early indicators showing some positive momentum for HDR, but if WPL can bounce and head back north again.. this should also provide, some bullishness (positiveness) in the oil stocks.

though just looking at the market depth... HDR is back up at $1.51 (Go you good thing HDR!)

Cheers,
sis

[RichKid]

Next congestion zone seems to be at $1.20, I really can't see why it would go there but that's the trend as it appears to me. The long candle shadow to below $1.40 may signal a reversal due to rejection of lower prices but considering HDR's history this is not assured (eg July/Aug 2004). The volume over the last few weeks is solid but not too high so hopefully a lot of loyal HDR holders are still there, maybe this just shook out the weak hands. Only issue now is that oil is down and nothing seems to be happening till next year.

[RichKid]

Article on oil price drop. Heading for 40 at the moment, next month or two at least looking bearish for oil, but you can never predict these things with so much volatility around.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Oil-prices-plunge-after-OPEC-decisions/2004/12/12/1102786931186.html

Here's a chart showing what appears to me to be a head and shoulders reversal. Appears to be falling back to 35-40, probably will consolidate there, early days yet. I hope HDR holders don't panic since nothing much is expected from HDR for the nex month- this is probably why they're jumping out short term. I haven't been able to post a chart with oil and HDR compared but will try.
(I'll post more on oil in the oil thread later on, perhaps the experts will be able to throw more light on its direction in that thread).

Light Crude Oil (CL, NYMEX)
Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Jan., 2005
Date:12/10/2004 O=43.05 H=43.10 L=40.25 C=40.71 V=99433

[tech/a]

Rich.

Hope wont help!!

[markrmau]

I'm not an expert, but I think the price of oil will move strictly according to supply/demand --- the charts will be irrelevant. If there is a warm winter and US stocks go up, the POO will drop, and the head/shoulders chart will appear correct. If there is another supply disruption (yukos or middle east problem) then the POO will go up, and the chartists will say they were waiting for confirmation of the trend ;)

My thoughts only.

[RichKid]

I'm not an expert, but I think the price of oil will move strictly according to supply/demand --- the charts will be irrelevant. If there is a warm winter and US stocks go up, the POO will drop, and the head/shoulders chart will appear correct. If there is another supply disruption (yukos or middle east problem) then the POO will go up, and the chartists will say they were waiting for confirmation of the trend ;)

My thoughts only.

You're right of course about supply disruptions and its effect on the oil price. I suppose my general view is a technical chart-based view and yours is a fundamentals based view. I use a bit of fundamentals myself but the basic tenant of TA is that the chart tells you all that you need to know about a price- that's the basic premise anyway, it's been explained in more eloquent terms than that but that's the gist of it. I wont get into a TA v fundamentals debate here because it'll take us off thread (and it's been debated elsewhere on these forums) but thanks for the input, just goes to show how hard it is to predict where oil and Hardman will go in the near term as there are so many different views. Maybe we can revive the oil thread on the other board soon?

[RichKid]

Rich.

Hope wont help!!

Not wrong there!

Thanks for that great chart Tech, I've got my sites on $1.20 too but I didin't measure the H&S's as you did (and as I should have) I just looked for support or congestion (agreement over price, triangle pattern which formed the basis for this year's spring up). I'll have to reassess once things move down there to see if it bounces up or continues its bearish trend.

As for 'hope', I'm actually expecting it to go to $1.20 or at least $1.40 maybe my emotions are slipping in there when I say 'hope'. When $1.80 broke I got worried, turns out rightly so. Various factors have come together to short HDR recently (dusters, oil plunge, govt buying in etc) but if I'd followed my charts instead of my emotions I would have been prepared ahead of time.

I also found when I got caught up (read as 'fell in love with') in HDR that I was spending more time looking at short-term daily charts than longterm weekly charts- hence missing the double top!! Now I start with the longest term chart I can find and then narrow in. I've heard that tip before but need to get into the habit of using it.

[bena]

Hi All,
fairly new to investing in the stock market, been reading the forums for a few months tho - learnt a bit, but i have a question.

i bought 500 odd HDR shares @ 1.56, just a nice simple entry level option for me to get a taste of buying and selling, and a feel for how it all works.

they recently announced "Appendix 3B - Exercise of Options", just to sooth my curiosity, what does this mean? they are offering 70k options @ 1.10.

so far its all good fun, and am enjoying it thourolly!

cheers all :)
Ben

[stefan]

bena,

I have not read the release in details but normally it just means that directors have executed their rights to get options at an agreed price. In this case $1.10. Those plans are usually established as an insentitive motivating management to work hard to exceed certain goals so that they can then profit from these options as they will hopefully be less expensive then the current share price and therefore create a windfall for them.

You may wish to check the HDR thread for more discussions, details and opinions. Some interesting postings to read there.

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=427

Happy trading

Stefan

[stefan]

Hm, $1.2 sounds very unlikely to me from my point of view.

Oil got cheaper but that can only be a temporary thing for now. Winter has yet to hit the northern hemisphere and I'm not so sure that IRAQ will become a major player anytime soon. There are signs of a slow down in China and the US but nothing is more reliable then the US when it comes to constant need for oil. Just wait until they get their fair share of winter storms. Their storage may have increased but that's just because they didn't need as much due to warm weather and not because they are saving anything or using it more efficiently.

HDR itself is surely trading at levels where it has to be considered a bargain by many traders if you look at what they have in store. $1.4 is already good value. $1.2 would be unreasonable. I do see the trend in the charts but I can't see any support from a fundamental side to support a drop towards $1.2.

My point is that all the factors leading to the pullback are temporary things that will not have a permanent impact on the company's future. Of course, I'm holding for the longterm and am not looking at 4 weeks or anything like that.


We'll see.

Happy trading

Stefan

[Lucstar]

Hi Guys,
Nice to see a little jump in HDR today. Hopefully it stays that way. Do any of you guys notice a small bottom in development? Or is it just me? Lol. Taking in the share price movement of today. I think we are starting to see a bottom coming up

[Lucstar]

Wow what a gr8 day today. The weekly update report was quite positive as well. Looks like the focus is on the Tiof-5 now. Hopefully, this isn't a false alarm.

[RichKid]

Another article from that top mag, Air Review. IMO broker valuations and sp targets should be taken with a grain of salt but they do give some indication of what may occur, providing the market agrees! HDR is clearly not the market darling it used to be. Not much by way of drilling news either but that's the way it goes.


Macquarie Upgrades Hardman On Price Weakness
December 15 2004
Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)


Macquarie has taken advantage of recent weakness in the Hardman (HDR) share price by upgrading its short-term recommendation on the stock to Outperform from Neutral, while retaining its long-term Neutral rating.

While noting the company will not commence production until early in 2006, the broker suggests there remains significant potential from the ongoing exploration program.

The analyst notes the company is currently in discussions for the timetable for 2005’s exploration program in Mauritania, the announcement of which should give the stock a boost.

In addition, approval for the development of the Tiof and Tevet fields should also provide a catalyst, especially as the broker values the impact of Tevet at 19c.

Earnings have been adjusted slightly, with FY05 down 4% to $0.3m, FY06 up 15% to $2.8m and FY07 up 5% to $4.7m to account for revised exploration commitments.

The broker’s valuation on HDR is $1.53, while its share price target is $2.10.
Copyright Australasian Investment Review.

AIR publishes a weekly magazine. Subscriptions are free at http://www.aireview.com/


My view is based on TA so around $1.25 is next target- I agree with Tech's analysis above (post #163) but short term may see a little run if it breaks through $1.60 on volume.

[RichKid]

Well, HDR looking better now. Has closed above 1.80 which I think is good support based on H&S neckline.
Tiof turned out better than expected and great flow rate- good news for a change but no production for awhile and 2h of 2005 will be relatively quiet compared to last year. HDR has dropped back from 2.10 after that dramatic rise yesterday.

[sharetrader101]

Have a gekko at Hardman Resources - anyone got feedback as to why share price increased lately? This one looks like its about to blow oil again.

[RichKid]

See the HDR thread, should explain a bit if you read through it:
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=7501&highlight=hardman#post7501

[ozewolf]

Hdr in my opinion is close to peak. Have been watching and investing for some time, made a good buck. Good performer that has come from 0.50 to current over approximately 3 years.

[RichKid]

Welcome!
That's a good return on HDR that you've got! Looks like it's hitting resistance at 2.10, gone up on good news of recent appraisal work and oil price strength imo. Nothing really new since it got hammered for finding dusters. A big double top/complex head and shoulders towering over this. See GBP, has had a similar run to HDR in early days, some people call it a junior HDR.

This could be a powerful breakout if it gets volume behind it (especially with oil rising), or a double top, or could bounce back and re-test 2.10 as an ascending triangle, possible ranging down to previous neckline at 1.80 too, let's see....chart shows climb from recent low, good for retracement measurements.

[RichKid]

Hdr in my opinion is close to peak. Have been watching and investing for some time, made a good buck. Good performer that has come from 0.50 to current over approximately 3 years.

Ozewolf,
Well, looks like it's done its stuff for now, that strong run you mentioned is now just a wide ranging pattern. See this article about the court case with Woodside about sharing development costs. Sp hasn't dipped as much as you'd think as a result, oil price seems to have more of an effect on HDR now that the major drilling is over. Might be a chance to pick it up cheap over the next few months if anything goes amiss.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Hardman-sues-Woodside/2005/04/10/1113071854078.html

[sam76]

HDR are having a nice little run this morning!

[sam76]

but then again so is everthing else in the sector...

come back a bit now.

should have bought OSH

:banghead:

[RichKid]

HDR are having a nice little run this morning!
Sam76, please search for existing threads on a particular company before posting- use the search tool at the top of each page. I have merged the two HDR threads into one to make it easier for everyone in future.
Thank you,
RichKid
moderator

[sam76]

I apologise Rich Kid,

I could've sworn I posted a reply rather then started a new thread.

sorry mate.

[RichKid]

I apologise Rich Kid,

I could've sworn I posted a reply rather then started a new thread.

sorry mate.

No problemo, there were two threads, a short one that you posted on and the main HDR thread, someone else started the duplicate- wasn't you. Just good to continue the main thread unless it's a different project related to HDR (like a purely technical study or on one big project taken on by the company etc).
Enjoy the reading, lots of posts on HDR, same Mauritiana campaign still going, maybe you can update us and more people may rejoin. My view of HDR atm is that the oil price is affecting it as it has other oil stocks. I might post a chart later too.

[RichKid]

Chart, nice clear double top and the recent sideways movements, 1.80 is a crucial level imo. Mainly an oil price story atm.

[ozewolf]

Hi guys, i've been browsing around for some stocks lately, not to buy, but just to further familiarise myself with the market. I've dug out two stocks that seem to be filled with potential. I'm probably wrong and thats why i here asking for your opinions. Well the first is TZL (TZ Limited). A combination of the prospects for the US economy in particular, TZ's contractual agreement with Textron and the cost-saving potential of TZ's technology. Currently selling for 72cents. It might just be a good buy. Next is HDR (Hardman Resources). I've seen this stock be mentioned quite often. What do you guys think about these two stocks?


hi there,
hardman is certainly a stock to watch...
more positive results first quarter next year when going into production...
tipping a minimum at $2.20 by then.

[RichKid]

hi there,
hardman is certainly a stock to watch...
more positive results first quarter next year when going into production...
tipping a minimum at $2.20 by then.

Yep, sure was a rising star, then it disappoined with a few dusters in the Mauritiana drilling and with the civil unrest triggering an early fall it hasn't quite looked the same. A storng oil price and the production you mention has kept it stable. A lot of upside once they're into production, this oil price wont stay here forever imo.

[johnno261]

Tipping $3 by production 1st qtr 2006

[RichKid]

Anyone cotton on to this? It appears to have been released after market close today but I'm not sure how early the news filtered into Australia. The reason I mention it (as most HDR followers will know) is because the last coup attemp resulted in the HDR price nosediving, it was at a similar high at the last time too so this could easily look like a triple top. Let's see what happens tomorrow. (If the news was available before market close then I can only assume people have not panicked as before since the price didn't move too much). Look for anncts from Woodside too if this has any bearing on the joint venture.

Mauritania Suffers Apparent Coup Bid
August 3, 2005 - 10:44PM SMH

Members of Mauritania's presidential guard took over state television and radio and blocked streets in the capital Nouackchott in what a diplomat said could be a coup attempt.

President Maaouya Ould Sid'Ahmed Taya, who was out of the country after attending the funeral of Saudi Arabia's King Fahd in Riyadh, arrived in Niger's capital Niamey hours after reports of the troop movements in Nouakchott emerged.

"We have heard that there has been a coup d'etat but we don't know who's involved. We don't know whether it is something that has succeeded or failed," Sid Ahmed Abeidna, the British honorary consul in Nouakchott, said.

Witnesses said members of Taya's guard had earlier taken control of state television and radio.

Gunfire rang out briefly near the presidency building and the airport was closed.

The French embassy in Nouakchott said it was monitoring the situation in the former colony but declined to comment further.

The US embassy said it had told its citizens to stay at home.

A witness on the border with Senegal said border guards were preventing people from leaving the country.

Shops in the sand-blanketed city were closed and taxis were not stopping to pick up people trying to leave the town centre.

"I heard a burst of gunfire near the presidency. I saw scared people running away. Civil servants have all left their offices," a second witness in the capital said.

He said state radio had been off air since the early morning.

Dissident soldiers came close to toppling Taya in June 2003 during two days of street fighting in Nouakchott before loyalist forces regained control.

The government says it foiled two more coup attempts in 2004.

"All the army is in the streets. It's blocking the roads to the presidency and the main routes through town," a civil servant who lives near the presidency building said.

Taya seized power in a 1984 coup. He has angered many Arabs in the country, which straddles black and Arab Africa, by shifting support from former Iraqi President Saddam Hussein to Israel and Washington in the 1990s.

Mauritania - which hopes to start pumping oil early next year - is one of only three Arab League member states that have established diplomatic ties with Israel.

It is also one of the most repressive countries in the region towards Islamist movements, analysts say.

Police have arrested scores of Islamic opposition leaders and activists since April, accusing them of colluding with the Algerian-based Salafist Group for Preaching and Combat (GSPC), a movement allied to al-Qaeda.

In May, security forces searched mosques around the capital, seizing Koranic texts and arresting mosque officials.

The United States has been sending military experts to train soldiers in Mauritania and other countries in the region to combat militants thought to be operating in the Sahara.

US European Command, which overseas US military operations in 91 countries and territories in Europe and most of Africa, said it was monitoring the situation closely.

Analysts have warned that Mauritania's attempts to stifle opposition groups by denouncing them as terrorists risks backfiring by radicalising moderate Islamists.

Fifteen Mauritanian soldiers were killed in a dawn raid on a remote outpost near the Algerian border in June, an attack which the government blamed on the GSPC.

[doctorj]

Latest rumours are that the coup has been quelled with stories out an hour ago that some "senior officials" had been detained. This has been reflected in recent buying in London.

Unfortunately, it doesn't say who detained who, so I'm sure we'll only really know what happenned as media outlets process the fallout over the coming days.

Remember, WPL, ROC and BKP are also affected.
--
EDIT: This just out.

NOUAKCHOTT, Mauritania - A group of Mauritanian army officers announced the overthrow of the nation's president on Wednesday, hours after troops took control of the national media and seized the army chief of staff headquarters in the capital of this oil-rich Islamic nation.

The group, which identified itself as the Military Council for Justice and Democracy, announced the coup against President Maaoya Sid’Ahmed Taya, who was abroad, through the state-run news agency.

“The armed forces and security forces have unanimously decided to put an end to the totalitarian practices of the deposed regime under which our people have suffered much over the last several years,” the statement said.
--

[doctorj]

Two more.



BEIRUT, Lebanon, Aug. 3 (UPI) -- Mauritania's army and internal security forces said they toppled President Moawiya Ould Tayeh's regime, installing a military council to rule the African state.

A communiqué signed by the Military Council for Justice and Democracy said Wednesday the coup is aimed at "putting an end to the regime's despotic practices."

It said the council will rule Mauritania for a transitional period not exceeding two years "during which real democratic institutions would be created."

Using the official agency to publish the communiqué indicates that the rebels have seized control of state media.

The president was out of the country for the funeral of Saudi Arabia's King Fahd. A plane carrying him back home landed Wednesday in Niger's capital, Niamey, BBC reported.

Rebel soldiers came close to toppling him in June 2003. The government says it foiled two more attempts in 2004.




A group of Mauritanian army officers announced the overthrow of the president on Wednesday, hours after troops took control of the national media and the army chief of staff headquarters in the capital of this oil-rich Islamic nation.

The group, which identified itself as the Military Council for Justice and Democracy, announced the coup against President Maaoya Sid'Ahmed Taya, who was abroad, through the state-run news agency.

"The armed forces and security forces have unanimously decided to put an end to the totalitarian practices of the deposed regime under which our people have suffered much over the last several years," the statement said.

The junta said it would excercise power for two years to allow time to put in place democratic institutions.

Earlier Wednesday, Taya arrived in the nearby West African nation of Niger, apparently trying to return home from Saudi Arabia where he had traveled Monday for the funeral of King Fahd, according to officials in Niger's capital, Niamey.

With his plane on the tarmac, Taya held talks at the airport with Niger's President Mamadou Tandja. Taya did not speak to reporters and security forces kept journalists at a distance.

Taya, who has allied himself with the United States in the war on terror, has faced staunch opposition among Islamic groups in his impoverished desert nation of 3 million and has cracked down ruthlessly on opponents since a 2003 coup attempt.

Heavily armed soldiers deployed in force around the presidential palace, ministries and other strategic buildings and on the streets of the capital of Nouakchott, blocking key roads and several entrances to the city.

A short burst of automatic gunfire was heard near the palace, where three anti-aircraft truck batteries were set up at midmorning. No casualties were reported.

Mohamed Ali, a father of eight who lives nearby, was among dozens of people fleeing the city center.

"I'm afraid for my family," he said. "I'll come back when things are back to normal."

The presidential guard troops cut state media broadcasts and the nation has no private stations. The airport also was closed to civilian flights, according to the military.

Taya has survived several coup attempts during his 20-year reign, but only the 2003 effort to overthrow him had made it past the planning stage, marked by several days of street fighting in the capital.

He implemented a crackdown after that against members of Islamist groups and the army, jailing scores of people accused of plotting to overthrow him. His government also has accused opponents of training with al-Qaida linked insurgents in Algeria.

A June 4 border raid on a remote Mauritanian army post by al-Qaida-linked insurgents sparked a gunbattle that killed 15 Mauritanian troops and nine attackers. Algeria's Salafist Group for Call and Combat claimed responsibility for the attack, saying in a message on a Web site that the assault was "in revenge for our brothers who were arrested in the last round of detentions in Mauritania."

Mauritania, a sparsely populated nation on the northwestern edge of the Sahara, is strictly regulated by Taya, who took power in a 1984 military coup and tried to legitimize his rule in the 1990s through elections the opposition says were fraudulent.

The predominantly Islamic West African nation, which straddles black and Arab Africa, opened full diplomatic relations with Israel six years ago, leading to widespread criticism from Islamic groups at home.

The president, who is in his 60s, supported Saddam during the 1991 Gulf War, but switched alliances dramatically in the late 1990s — breaking diplomatic ties with Iraq.

Oil recently was discovered in reserves offshore, and the country is expected to begin pumping crude for the first time early next year.

[RichKid]

Hi Doc,
Well, looks from your last few articles that it is bad news, it is a military coup and it has succeeded. Wonder if they'll want to change the terms of the agreements that the foreign oil companies have in place or if they'll just freeze it all. Eitherway there is so much uncertainty.

Needless to say HDR has dropped big time in early trading on high volume, it's only the start of the day so we'll have a clearer picture by the end of the day. I assume some risk premium is already built into the sp after last year's unrest. The fall doesn't appear to be as bad as the last big one.

[johnno261]

Hardmans not looking good on chart.Got out last week at $2.25 with a 52centp/s profit on 200,000units. A sub $2 figure is looking strong and going by my new chart software may even pullback to $1.70's.
AGM in Novemeber so probably will bottom out prior to that and then not long after that really is the production kickin in early 06. Some money to be made on this little sucker over the next 6 months for sure!!!

[RichKid]

Hardmans not looking good on chart.Got out last week at $2.25 with a 52centp/s profit on 200,000units. A sub $2 figure is looking strong and going by my new chart software may even pullback to $1.70's.
AGM in Novemeber so probably will bottom out prior to that and then not long after that really is the production kickin in early 06. Some money to be made on this little sucker over the next 6 months for sure!!!

Not sure if I'm as good as your new software (what is it btw?) but I see a big retracement too, the market does not like those higher prices. The fall will probably be halted if oil spikes again but I don't think it will (touchwood).

.....wkly chart of HDR below, on second thoughts it needs to break that uptrend line first to go lower. So maybe targeting 190 in the short term, then lower perhaps.

[RichKid]

About to fall through support imo according to those colourful lines in the chart but might be a brief bounce beforehand- watch out below!!

[doctorj]

I'm the first to admit I'm a sucker for an oil/gas co with a good story and I feel the recent price movements is a divergence from the reality behind HDR. I do agree it is in for more pain with a falling oil price and some recent drilling disappointment.

It's late and I'm over due for a nap, but here are some interesting points
- Weakness in oil has seen HDR fall back more than it rallied on strong prices to begin with
- Tiof difficulty due to geology or lack of a PSC Gas agreement with goverment?
- Its valued a figure much closer to USD$30 for oil rather than USD$60
- Much of their current drilling "failures" have been around the extremes of their fields
- From Kahuna at SS: "even if HDR was to find zero more in Mauritania the gas and oil already between the 5 finds suggests to me the real valuation on HDR is around AUD $3.42 per barrel of reserves and if they were to extract the oil and then gas at the rate of Chinguettie it would last around 80 years and oil at US$50- I expect it implies a P/E of around 8 for HDR. AUD/OIL $80.49 vs valuation at $3.42 NPV or 4.2% ... yeah right !! But we are there ... either oil goes to AUD $55- or USD$40- or the other side gives"
- HDR is tied to WPL. WPL is down more than 20%, HDR given its speculative nature is always going to be its more volatile cousin

Apologies for the poor post. Needless to say, I'm long term bullish on HDR but its all about the entry.

[doctorj]

Oil has pulled back and natgas has fallen off a cliff in the face of a mild northern winter.

HDR has broken through the support it was hovering at the 0.618 fib and has closed the gap from the start of 06/05. Closed today at the top of that same gap, which should provide some support. MACD, RSI and OBV all looking unhealthy, but ROC suggests the down trend may be pausing at support to atleast catch its breath.

A break below here would see next support at 1.63. I still can't help being bullish about HDR and WPL. It looks as though its worth waiting for a buy signal at the moment, buy now and you could end up catching a falling knife.

[ozewolf]

Hi guys, i've been browsing around for some stocks lately, not to buy, but just to further familiarise myself with the market. I've dug out two stocks that seem to be filled with potential. I'm probably wrong and thats why i here asking for your opinions. Well the first is TZL (TZ Limited). A combination of the prospects for the US economy in particular, TZ's contractual agreement with Textron and the cost-saving potential of TZ's technology. Currently selling for 72cents. It might just be a good buy. Next is HDR (Hardman Resources). I've seen this stock be mentioned quite often. What do you guys think about these two stocks?


Hi,
HDR is definately worth to keep an eye on...I still believe that due to fundamentals and upcoming production first quarter of next year, surely HDR have to hit a least $2,40 by then.

Ozewolf

[intellimoney]

Dont touch with the preverbial barge pole its a real speculators stock though heaps of fun to trade as there is normally only two sides to this stock your either selling or buying and the price trend reflects it.

You want something longer term I would look at either PBB or AMP both companies have a recovering share price and business.

[RichKid]

HDR in a trading hald as Woodside is looking to offload its stake, doesn't sound good imo, you'd assume they'd hang on if they thought it was going to appreciate, especially when hdr is way off its highs. Apparently they're figuring out how to offload the parcel- look what happened to LHG today when RIO's transaction was finalised, huge drop. HDR still looking weak.

[carpets]

seems woodside has sold its holdings in hardmans, about $118m worth at $1.755 each.
report just came out, not sure how market is going to react, many sellers lining up at lower than expected prices.
Richard O'Shannasy, secretary quotes "it is now an appropriate time for woodside to seel its holding given the transformation that Hardman has undergone in the last few years... Financially and operationally, Hardman has never been in better shape. Chinguetti is nearly complete with the anticipation of first oil in Feb 2006"
The sale price will possibly bring down the share price initially but things are still looking good for the near future.
Comments?

[sam76]

Seems you were right, Rich.

just lifted this from another site...

seems woodside has sold its holdings in hardmans, about $118m worth at $1.755 each.
report just came out, not sure how market is going to react, many sellers lining up at lower than expected prices.
Richard O'Shannasy, secretary quotes "it is now an appropriate time for woodside to seel its holding given the transformation that Hardman has undergone in the last few years... Financially and operationally, Hardman has never been in better shape. Chinguetti is nearly complete with the anticipation of first oil in Feb 2006"

[RichKid]

seems woodside has sold its holdings in hardmans, about $118m worth at $1.755 each.
report just came out, not sure how market is going to react, many sellers lining up at lower than expected prices.
Richard O'Shannasy, secretary quotes "it is now an appropriate time for woodside to seel its holding given the transformation that Hardman has undergone in the last few years... Financially and operationally, Hardman has never been in better shape. Chinguetti is nearly complete with the anticipation of first oil in Feb 2006"
The sale price will possibly bring down the share price initially but things are still looking good for the near future.
Comments?

Hi Carpets,

Welcome to ASF! Hope you enjoy these forums.
Please read the forum code of conduct and posting guidelines asap, it would be helpful if you would post in the existing thread on HDR, thanks!

.....emmm, just noticed you guys have posted the same stuff...I bet many stock sites would now have the exact same paragraph....

RichKid
moderator

[sam76]

looks like carpets and I are plagiarising the same site!
:p:

[carpets]

rich kid,
sorry bout the new thread,
I posted the same message on ozestock and was looking for a reply but didnt have any success, good to see you guys are on the ball with hdr.
what do you think about woodsides sale? price drop looks imminent...

[RichKid]

rich kid,
sorry bout the new thread,
I posted the same message on ozestock and was looking for a reply but didnt have any success, good to see you guys are on the ball with hdr.
what do you think about woodsides sale? price drop looks imminent...

Hi carpets,
That's fine but you really need to read the rules I mention, you wont need to bother with another forum after you join ASF! But we do have higher standards here so it won't suit all. We've been following HDR here, it appears to have broken a support line I drew in a chart (see earlier posts) so not looking good imho. I prefer other stocks atm for oil exposure- TAP, AWE, ARQ, OSH etc, search these forums for oil stocks (use search tool above).

Let's see where HDR finds support.

[markrmau]

In the first announcement, it says the holding is sold to Deutsch "for placement in the market".

To me, that sounds like the stake has been sold for $1.755, and Deutsch is going to feed all this stock into the market (over time). Exactly like the LHG/citigroup deal. So in the short term, it could drop well below 1.755. (Maybe not too much as there will be a lot of bargain hunters about).

I think Deutsch got a far better deal than Citigroup though ;)

Comments?

[carpets]

very interesting day for HDR, thought market would stay at around $1.755, which was woodsides sale price. Big volume moved today, good finish at $1.83. Now woodsides no longer a major investor,should be very interesting to see where HDR goes over the next few months.

[doctorj]

WPL selling their 10.8% stake in HDR is fantastic for holders of HDR.

The long and the short of it is that the overhang is now gone, HDR is fundamentally undervalued, they have an active drilling program in conjunction with some of the biggest oil companies in the world at high quality targets which are very high impact relative to their market cap.

All this amounts to HDR being 'in play' all of a sudden. Record oil prices this year has explorers and producers cashed up and some consolidation is overdue. I believe the process has started this month with some large shale prospects in the US changing hands. Today's buying is a reflection of this.

[Lucstar]

WPL selling their 10.8% stake in HDR is fantastic for holders of HDR.

Hmmm...i dont know about that. Personally, i think that WPL selling their HDR stake shows a sign of weakness in HDR. I mean, if HDR was profitable, then why would WPL sell it? I think that WPL thinks that HDR no longer has potential or that there is better opportunities elsewhere. We'll just have to wait and see

[doctorj]

WPL made in the order of $50mill on their investment in HDR. Divesting yourself of a very large stake in a company is not easy - you need the lure of future growth to attract buyers. Look what has happened since SGW sold their share in BMX. Rio Tinto also just sold their share in Lihir. If they didn't have future growth potential then they would have driven the price down a lot in offloading them.

Then again, its disagreement that makes a market.

[johnno261]

Hmmm...i dont know about that. Personally, i think that WPL selling their HDR stake shows a sign of weakness in HDR. I mean, if HDR was profitable, then why would WPL sell it? I think that WPL thinks that HDR no longer has potential or that there is better opportunities elsewhere. We'll just have to wait and see

Interesting concept DoctorJ!!!! I am agreeance with Lucstar. We are all entitled to different opinions and your comments are different DocotorJ.
I am in agreeance with your points Lucstar. You could say that WPL sold off other stakes in projects unrelated to HDR this week, however that in mind, it indicates to the market a recognition of weakness in HDR.
Just my little ol' humble opinion!!! Good Luck!!!!

[dollars]

Hi All

First post on this site. Have followed this one for a while. Percieved weakness will be resolved depending on continued exploration success and the strength of the oil price into the expected production delivery from Chinguetti next quater.
In the background takeover speculation even with the recent sale of WPL's stake still remains strong! Development of TIOF and any decision to tie in any of the closer fields to the FPSO continue to hold some appeal.

cheer$

[carpets]

Percieved weakness will be resolved depending on continued exploration success and the strength of the oil price into the expected production delivery from Chinguetti next quater.
In the background takeover speculation even with the recent sale of WPL's stake still remains strong!

As a current holder of HDR, WPL's sale was somewhat worrying... as the question was posed, why would WPL sell their 10.8% stake if it was going to continue to make them money?

I agree that next quarters proposed production in Chinguetti should provide some new opportunities for HDR. They have indicated from previous reports that they have adequate capital to fund this new exploration. In my opinion, WPL's sale is a minor setback as DOLLARS indicated. Im sure there will be some disagreements there, however, as a current holder im trying to stay optimistic!

[doctorj]

WPL strategy is to build shareholder wealth through drilling oil, not investing in other companies. Perhaps WPL now feel as though HDR is capable of meeting its current and future obligations to the JV and it no longer needs support from WPL.

WPL can now redirect the funds they had invested in HDR to what WPL does best - drilling oil.

Just something to chuck out there.

[Lucstar]

Perhaps WPL now feel as though HDR is capable of meeting its current and future obligations to the JV and it no longer needs support from WPL.

If WPL felt that HDR is now mature and PROFITABLE business. Then wouldn't they make the most of the opportunity and stay with HDR? I mean all businesses desire profits. If WPL sees HDR as profitable, they would be organising a takeover, instead of dumping HDR shares.

Just my point of view.

[doctorj]

I guess what I'm trying to say is that you can make money doing all sorts of things - digging up stuff, speculating on pork bellies, walking street corners... the list goes on.

The way WPL makes their money is by finding and selling oil rather than investing in other companies. Sometimes owning part of a profitable business isn't enough reason to hang around.

[markrmau]

My broker suggested that hdr was a good buy on friday. However, I declined as I have some concerns over Tiof which has a fairly large (>50c I believe) valuation attached to it. I guess that means it will be back over $2 in a day or so.

Does anyone know who Deutsch bank sold most of the holding to at $1.76?

[RichKid]

... Rio Tinto also just sold their share in Lihir. If they didn't have future growth potential then they would have driven the price down a lot in offloading them.

Then again, its disagreement that makes a market.

LHG did fall a fair bit that day, a big gap too. HDR seems to have weathered it a lot better but it's early days yet.

[doctorj]

Does anyone know who Deutsch bank sold most of the holding to at $1.76?

I think Deutsche Bank is intending to hold a auction for the stock and they still hold most of WPL's 10.8% stake.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

HDR ..... often our analysis is contrary to those holders,
who have fallen in love with this stock and this time
would seem to be no exception .....

..... that's life, in the oilpatch ..... !~!

Attachment here, details a short-to-medium-term analysis
from one techie's perspective, which was posted to other
forums about 03102005, but has proven to be correct, so far.

Really, this is just a heads-up on HDR, as our astroanalysis
tells us to be looking for further negativity in this market,
particularly around 09-13122005 and again later this month.

Have previously posted some other stuff too, about the
importance of the 1.90 pivot level for HDR and how we
confirmed that pivot, with 3 of 4 forecast hits coming in,
on time so far, with the final target date on 30122005.

Of course, this is just one techie's view and it could
well be 100% wrong ..... let's hope so, because the
current holders may not get such a good ride over
the coming 7 months or so, if this analysis is correct.

Let's see how it all unfolds ..... :-)

happy trading

yogi

:)

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

HDR ..... trades according to the plan ..... :)

From the post above:

"..... as our astroanalysis tells us to be looking for further
negativity in this market, particularly around 09-13122005
and again later this month."

happy days

yogi

:)

[Kauri]

Yogi..
I have put the major time points on from your 03102005 HDR astro analysis on a chart.. interesting indeed...
Regards.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

From our HDR analysis dated 30092005 and posted
above, on 06122005 ..... :)

"..... with a BIG negative cycle coming into
play on 09-13122005 and more around
22-28122005."

So, it could get nasty for HDR holders over the
next few days ..... ???

HDR continues to trade, according to our
astroanalysis ..... :)

happy days

yogi


:)

-----

[RichKid]

Yogi..
I have put the major time points on from your 03102005 HDR astro analysis on a chart.. interesting indeed...
Regards.

That's great work Kauri. It'll be great if you could do something like that Yogi, makes it easier to track.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

Don't really see the point here ..... as the key dates
are mostly forward-looking, we would simply be posting
dates on a blank chart ..... yes???

Elsewhere, we have found that the format currently used
is easy ..... simply note the dates in your trading diary
and check the chart and market reaction, on that day ... :)

..... too easy !~!

happy days

yogi

:)

[carpets]

:banghead: Seems like a lot of negativity in the astroanalysis, I've been looking at the chart of HDR, and its not looking all that positive either. Some that I've read are still recommending HDR as a buy? I would think it looks more like a sell according to the current situation.
Ive mapped out a few things that I thought might be appropriate... Feedback?

[brisvegas]

Sell at these prices please .im more than happy to buy them at cheaper prices . patience will be rewarded no doubt . last purchase at 1.75 . more than happy to buy some more at 1.50 if you bears want to push it that low







.............. pete

[Ann]

Hi everyone,

I look at the chart indicators and I see the MACD doing pretty much nothing, I see the PVI doing pretty much nothing. This tells me no-one seems to have too much of an inside running about what is going on. I see a huge volume spike on the 2nd of December. Everyone will be aware that it was WPL selling its holding to Deutchbank who immediately sold it on. To whom? That is the question.

There is no further notice on the ASX that I can see about a major stockholder increasing their holding or of one becoming a substantial holder.

So, has it been sold to a group of individuals? Has it been listed and sold on an overseas stock exchange?

In my opinion, for what it is worth [not much] if this is not a takeover bid, then it would be to the new owners' benefit to see the price rise.

Seeing I am going into flights of fantasy here.....How much do you think they would want to increase their money? Double it?

If the average price was say $1.80 on the 2/12/05 then their target would probably be $3.60, plus a bit for slippage?

Let's see if the price starts to rise on lowish volumes for a while....

It's grand having a good imagination, it can keep you amused for hours. One just has to learn to be careful of it. Otherwise it can run away with you.

....and a chart..

[Ann]

Still they might want to see the price come down a bit. In one of many brokers' client weekly reports I have read, they did rather distantly link the information about a very large French company Gas de France- a major LNG player in Europe- has farmed into Dana's 3 permits.

So if there is a takover bid from that area perhaps they may prefer a price drop for the time being.

Nothing like having an eachway bet folks!! :p:

[RichKid]

Just a stab at EW on HDR using Nick Radge's latest book. Others who are trying his EW method can have a go at it too I guess, maybe Nick'll comment. That line I've drawn at 1.60 is just a moderate congestion/support area in my view, not strong support so could go to 1.50 or lower. Wave 1 is generally equal to wave 5 so we can follow that guideline for now, assuming my count is correct. Blue line is the fractal of wave 3 (hope that's how it's said, again from Nick's book), basically a pattern within a pattern.

[Dutchy3]

Hi All

HDR - 02/12/05 saw a very big lot of stock change hands.

The price really didn't register. Today that has changed.

This stock posted a similar move back in May 2005 and moved 30% odd in two months. this is a CFD stock. A return to the 2.40 mark is possible.

[BraceFace]

Dutchy,
I'm liking what I see.
Never mind that old pessimist Yogi - HDR to return to 2.50 easily.

[Lucstar]

Well i definately still have this stock on my radar. And if i detect any signs of recovery, im the first to be in. Lets just wait and see

[slimtrader]

a breakthrough resistance at 198 and 205 may see this one track back to 250. worthwile watching

[Dutchy3]

Close enough. LONG on the CLOSE

[jet-r]

It looks quite positive to me.

There are quite a few indictors giving positive signals.

15 day MA is above 30day MA.
RSI is on the uptrend and consistent with the price.
MACD is also giving a buy signal.
The volume is not bad too.


What do you guys think?

It might break through 2.05 tomorrow and go all the way to 2.50 :rolleyes:

[carpets]

Indicators certainly looking better, its definently come out of that correction/bearish trend from the last 3 months.
Looking at the MACD, it would be good to see further movement over the 0 line to show a bit of strength in the run. I had around 1.95 as my first target, I think a break over a 2.03-2.05 would be a really good indicator of further gains. 15 day moving over 30 day moving average is certainly a good sign. Lets see how much further things can go.
I'm continuing to remain optimistic!

[sam76]

HDR finds oil in Uganda!

They don't know how much, but this should help lift the recent share price pressure.

Here's the link. http://www.theage.com.au/news/Business/Australian-firm-discovers-oil-in-Uganda/2006/01/18/1137467016041.html

[Lucstar]

I wonder why this positive news hasn't been reflected by the share price this morning. Maybe its still early. Also why hasn't HDR annouced the same news as THE AGE newspapar did?

[carpets]

I think that its only going to be a matter of time for HDR. Looking at the graph, it seems to have broken out of that downward trend channel so I guess we'll have to see if it breaks above the $2ish mark. New drilling project in Chinguetti offshore oilfield is still scheduled for feb 1 (according to report), so maybe thats what HDR needs to bolster the current share price.

[tony2252]

Hi Carpets

on one hand you "think" the price will go to $2 on the other hand you are going to "guess" and wait and see based on the charts.

Its all a matter of the balance of proberbility does it favour up or down...


In my 2 minutes of experience I think that you should go ask chicken.

Have a great day!

[carpets]

Hi Carpets

on one hand you "think" the price will go to $2 on the other hand you are going to "guess" and wait and see based on the charts.

Its all a matter of the balance of proberbility does it favour up or down...


In my 2 minutes of experience I think that you should go ask chicken.

Have a great day!

Tony, sorry im not familiar with the term proberbility. Perhaps you'll have to refresh my memory.

According to the charts, it seems as though it is favouring a break above resistance. As I said, we'll have to wait and see.

[justjohn]

Carpets you say its only a matter of time HDR brakes out but on 2 previous times its tried only to be knocked down what makes so confident its going to brake and also probebility is a well known phraise used by people born in 1960 and can not be found in uni text books
I think that its only going to be a matter of time for HDR. Looking at the graph, it seems to have broken out of that downward trend channel so I guess we'll have to see if it breaks above the $2ish mark. New drilling project in Chinguetti offshore oilfield is still scheduled for feb 1 (according to report), so maybe thats what HDR needs to bolster the current share price.

[Dutchy3]

Hi carpets

I'm with you. I've held long as I'm reasonably comfortable that my entry area of 1.97 can be found again in a reasonable time frame.

The Bearish Engulfing that occured this week is not what I like to see so early in a new position. So .... I will be out if I cab get 1.98 within the new few weeks.

[carpets]

Carpets you say its only a matter of time HDR brakes out but on 2 previous times its tried only to be knocked down what makes so confident its going to brake and also probebility is a well known phraise used by people born in 1960 and can not be found in uni text books

justjohn, I have prepared my technical analysis on why I have some confidence in HDR's current position. I'm not so sure that it has been 'knocked down' but rather is consolidating and building strength for a new move.
As stated previously by other members on the board, the indicators are showing positive signs. The indicators I use are mearly my interpretation which is not to be taken as any sort of investment advice, however, based on my research I have concluded further gains for HDR is probable based on the current position. My opinion is by all means open to discretion and criticism.
As for the term 'probebility', im sure that the phrase would be contained in any university textbook as universities have been established well beyond the 1960's. I am yet to discover any such phrase, perhaps you could tell me what it means... :rolleyes:
Carpets.

(Sorry the chart might be a bit blurred)

[johnno261]

Topped up my holdings today in HDR. Re rating not far off, nor is production, only 2 weeks away from producing up to 75,000BOPD which is valued at well over half a billion dollars in it's 1st year of production based on current $68US a barrel which equates to roughly $88AUS a barrel. HDR are looking at roughly $60AUS profit per barrel.
Big call,but HDR wont be under $4 in 12-15 months!

[Dutchy3]

Hi Johno261

Yes ... thanks for the FA. Technically the way it has (largely) discounted the Bearish Engulfing day from the other week is a big positive. Some frantic trading on the closes over the last week or so too. I like the sound of 400+ in due course.

[Dutchy3]

Anticipated announcementon the close and this one moves into pre open. Few (smallish) buyers jumping the bid/ask spread. Open tomorrow might be interesting

[johnno261]

Dutchy3, great news regarding contract of sales. HDR is only 2 weeks from production and looking at roughly $400,000,000 in it's 1 st year of production!! Not many companys make 1/10 of that in their 1st year of production!!!!
Exciting times ahead with big $$$ just round the corner! The upside with the stock is huge as that 400million dollars is only a rough estimate on Chinguetti, alone and not taking into account,Tiof,Tevet,Banda, and Uganda's drilling.
Tomorrow looks like being a good day indeed!!!

[TheAnalyst]

Does anyone know what the estimate of Net Earnings Per Diluted Share (NEPDS) is on a forecasted estimated $400,000,000 is.