PEM is starting to look interesting up 8 cents from 74 cents last week to 82 today, big volumes for PEM 2.5m in last two days have not seen that volume for over 3 to 4 months. The are well and truely over production problems of earlier this year which was really a one off. Has some possibilities I think anyway else share an opinion?
brerwallabi
28th-September-2004, 11:06 PM
PEM again goes up, hopefully to test 82cps again, I managed to pick up a few more at 72cps last week, closed at 77 tonight, will hang on to these. When the news starts to flow from the Dasy-Milano and Potossi mines coming in to production it should push PEM back to last years prices I hope. I hold. Has anyone else considered PEM?
brerwallabi
12th-January-2005, 09:59 PM
Looks like this one might have slipped by a few of you, its worth looking into.
RichKid
12th-January-2005, 11:42 PM
Em, too high for me now, wonder if it's ranging. Must have a closer look some time. You bought at the right time Brer! All the best!
brerwallabi
15th-January-2005, 10:16 AM
"Em, too high for me now, wonder if it's ranging. Must have a closer look some time. You bought at the right time Brer! All the best! "
12th-January-2005 09:59 PM
Rich re your comment above, looks like it could test $1.00, if it breaks through I'm thinking around $1.20 will do me fine, but it could also fall back to the mid 70's. I understand your comment about being too high for you as the current chart does reflect an interpretation of that. This one has been a nice little earner as i have traded in and out several times last year but you won't see my shares for sale just yet. By the way Bolnisi is very worthwhile watching too, i picked up a small parcel.
RichKid
16th-January-2005, 09:56 PM
By the way Bolnisi is very worthwhile watching too, i picked up a small parcel.
Yep, agree with you there. Started a thread on BSG last week, resistance breakout trigger is only a few cents away imo, I expect it to be explosive rather than slow considering the sp history: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=831
brerwallabi
15th-March-2005, 10:17 PM
Well it made $1.20 fallen back but climbing back currently $1.18, not only a zincer but has some handy gold deposits up its sleeve, up 60% since I really got interested in this last July, looking for $1.35 now based on daisy milano and further good outlook in zinc prices. I was early into zinc PEM and CBH, I believe I am early enough into some goldies for a very enjoyable ride.
brerwallabi
25th-April-2005, 10:28 PM
Lot of talk on ZFX on this site, its not the only zincer around, I believe zinc still has further upside but is definately not a long term investment, CBH has had a few bit of news lately and looks good to go further, PEM has been dogged by a few bad news stories and the latest being the loss of long time CEO, its trending down at the momment it could continue down to 75cps or reverse back towards $1.20, much also depends on the Daisy Milano gold pourdue next month,not just a zincer, wonder if chicken can till me if there is any manipulation here re the 30% drop.I sold out on PEM @ $1.08 after my stop/loss was triggered watching very closely now trying to pick the bottom lol
brerwallabi
31st-July-2005, 09:15 AM
I always keep some stocks on my radar and this has been one, this was a good one to trade about this time last year went from low 70's to a $1.20. Its looking very close to that again, this was another small cap that I think became a victim of the China debate and combined with some doubt around it broken hill mine performence and its daisy milano gold op this cascaded down. I am back in and my expectection is a few good trades in riding this back up, those bollinger bands are very tight a break out it seems is looking to open.
This view should not be taken as advice of any form.
Porper
31st-July-2005, 10:51 AM
I always keep some stocks on my radar and this has been one, this was a good one to trade about this time last year went from low 70's to a $1.20. Its looking very close to that again, this was another small cap that I think became a victim of the China debate and combined with some doubt around it broken hill mine performence and its daisy milano gold op this cascaded down. I am back in and my expectection is a few good trades in riding this back up, those bollinger bands are very tight a break out it seems is looking to open.
This view should not be taken as advice of any form.
Very interesting reading peoples viewpoints and interpretation of charts.Only a beginner myself, but to my untrained eye I can't see any buy signals, only MACD, and this has not been appropriate for PEM.Seems to be in a downtred/ranging.If ADX started moving upwards towards 20 then I might think a breakout was on the cards.
As you say though brerwallabi, one to watch as it could well turn positive .
brerwallabi
31st-July-2005, 03:50 PM
Agree this has been ranging and that can also a good time to trade a stock, PEM has come of a low of 65cps and is moving towards the testing of its 100 day moving average of 78cps and may test that this week. It may also fall back, I have covered myself for that and will then watch again for an opp to trade it as it continues to range.
brerwallabi
12th-August-2005, 10:16 AM
Well 71 cents Monday just went to 77 now this morning, fair bit of volume yesterday about to test 78 cents. Beautiful stock to trade.
brerwallabi
17th-August-2005, 11:48 PM
Very interesting reading peoples viewpoints and interpretation of charts.Only a beginner myself, but to my untrained eye I can't see any buy signals, only MACD, and this has not been appropriate for PEM.Seems to be in a downtred/ranging.If ADX started moving upwards towards 20 then I might think a breakout was on the cards.
As you say though brerwallabi, one to watch as it could well turn positive .
Porper are you still watching broke through 78which was my worry this time, now 80.5. I have held this time around, have bought and sold through previous ranging over the last 15 months and have managed to take advantage of any substanial previous rises as well, still believe this will go again, almost think I know it like the back of hand. Not one for the nervous though.
brerwallabi
10th-September-2005, 07:19 PM
I made my decision to take the profit at 79cps on PEM took it at 66.5cps looked like it was going sideways again. Good move as it dropped to 73cps all set to reenter and it jumped up to 80cps. PEM took a hammering from some analysts over the past two weeks who put 65 -70cps on it. It now looks with the Friday news of $36m in cash received for future sales of silver which really is a by product of their core mining activities that Pem has the ability now to fasttrack their development and exploration plans. I believe this company could grow into a far bigger enterprise then it is now over the next few years, it is now cashed up with a total of $50M and has some very interesting projects. Its Daisy Milano gold project in WA will be becoming stronger and stronger with production coming on stream now. I have been able to trade this very well over the last 15 months but this time when I get back in I think it might well go to 1.25 -1.30.It is primarily a zincer, lets not forget the big jump lately in Kagara and ZFX is well up.I cant see any reason for this not to progress.
My Ops only.
GreatPig
11th-September-2005, 11:32 AM
Here's my chart for PEM.
I bought in at 76.5 cents back in early August and am still holding. I'm hoping with the jump up on Friday, it might continue on up for a while.
But of course you never know...
Cheers,
GP
brerwallabi
30th-September-2005, 12:43 PM
Pem finally broken through took longer then I thought took another profit again this morning.Feel it still has the potential to go $1.20 plus especially with the outlook for zinc. Hope I can read PEM, will look for the pullback to 79cps and get back in. My strategy with this stock in trading in and out has been a great money spinner for me this year. If you follow a stock real closely and get to know it as well I beleive I know Pem - it almost is a guaranteed income stream.
brerwallabi
26th-December-2005, 02:36 PM
Very interesting reading peoples viewpoints and interpretation of charts.Only a beginner myself, but to my untrained eye I can't see any buy signals, only MACD, and this has not been appropriate for PEM.Seems to be in a downtred/ranging.If ADX started moving upwards towards 20 then I might think a breakout was on the cards.
As you say though brerwallabi, one to watch as it could well turn positive .
PEM still looks very healthy to me reentered early October and was able to take the benefit of the ride up to $1.00 and sold. Now back in @ .90c and holding, chart looks interesting, still trending up from mid July with a further upside indicated. Hey Porper did you ever buy this one.
Ann
26th-December-2005, 02:55 PM
Excuse my intrusion, may I offer a slightly less optimistic view of this stock?
brerwallabi
26th-December-2005, 05:07 PM
Excuse my intrusion, may I offer a slightly less optimistic view of this stock?
Interesting but the chart looks somewhat different over a 12 month period and the last 5 1/2 months is a clear uptrend although some pullbacks on the way. What is helping this along the way is the zinc price, over the last few years I would say PEM has disappointed some hence the drop from the $1.20's of earlier this year but it is a junior miner and a diversified one at that and one that has encountered some setbacks on the way. It looks like a continuation of an upward trend to me.
Ann
26th-December-2005, 05:33 PM
Hi brerwallabi,
Let's do that shall we.....what I see if I don't look beyond twelve months.
I always look as far as I can normally. I always like to know if there is a bus coming at me from a distance....
Ann
26th-December-2005, 05:42 PM
Hi brerwallabi
I just looked at your attachment.....You show it travelling in a ranging channel. Now potentially creating an upper point of resistance. Your chart re-inforces that the price is due for a retrace right now. That means down folks.
I am really not trying to hastle you brerwallabi, just say what I see.
brerwallabi
26th-December-2005, 08:14 PM
Ann, in no way are you hassling???? me. I always respect someone else's opinion, this is a site where we come to learn from each other and share experiences. I will continue to hold PEM in the expectation that it reaches $1.20, 500k of shares were issued prior to Xmas, staff incentives at .80c & .90c which have an impact as I guess a few employees seek some money for holiday period.
I hope your interpretation is wrong (no offence meant).
PEM as had a run this time of year for the last couple of years and I also can not see why it won't again. Other factors in its favour some increasing demand for lead and a 10% increase in lead rices last quarter also a 30% increase in zinc in the last quarter and we all know about gold. A finger in the pie in Strike Oil which has jumped from 12c to 18c very suddenly - some things are looking good in my opinion.
Please do not rely on technical analysis solely, although I do sometimes - my estimation on PEM is governed by my own inevstigations and judgements. I hold but I am never last of a sinking ship.
Ann
26th-December-2005, 09:12 PM
I hope your interpretation is wrong (no offence meant).
So do I brerwallabi, whenever I see a negative in a chart, I always hope I have got it wrong. If I have got it right, that will mean someone may lose money...that thought always saddens me.
brerwallabi
26th-December-2005, 09:27 PM
The thought of losing money also saddens me but I fully expect not be successful all of the time, I do lose but it is all part of the strategy and if I lose it will be triggered by a stop/loss and it would not dampen my enthusiasm for trading PEM as it is likely to continue in the channel if it retraces. My head tells me this is going to go ahead. We shall soon know.
Ann
26th-December-2005, 09:53 PM
Please let me be wrong!
brerwallabi
27th-December-2005, 09:43 AM
Ann that Wesfarmers chart you posted on Wesfarmers thread looks like its identical to PEM over the last few months, not hassling you lol.
Ann
27th-December-2005, 09:55 PM
Ann that Wesfarmers chart you posted on Wesfarmers thread looks like its identical to PEM over the last few months, not hassling you lol.
You could never be a hassle to me brerwallabi,
The thing about charting that I love is its infinite possibilities of interpretation...
You gave me a fright brerwallabi, I thought I had put the wrong chart in for WES, it was late.
I see what you mean....let's put up another chart for PEM shall we?
brisvegas
27th-December-2005, 10:27 PM
some serious upgrade to 06 earnings projections in last week . i'd say some serious rerating of PEM likely by covering brokers likely when the holiday season over next week . certainly one for my watchlist and i note it is CMC included at 10% margin . that 1.20 resistance likely to be tested in not too distant future judging by fundementals . note that near 80 mill cash on hand and 10 mill invested in equities on a market cap of 180 mill
FORECAST EARNINGS Last Analyst Update
23 December, 2005
EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-06 18.7 5.3 --
Year Ending 30-06-07 21.2 4.7 13.4%
.............. pete
brisvegas
30th-December-2005, 06:02 AM
Have been reading up on zinc and have discovered some interesting facts regarding supply/demand and production deficits going forwards . if this all is true the future looks good for zinc producers
have a read of this article
http://www.yukonzinc.com/zincMarkets.htm
................. pete
brisvegas
30th-December-2005, 06:10 AM
JP Morgan suggest zinc is the metal to rise in 06
J.P. Morgan is bullish on zinc
Purchasing December 27, 2005
Poor mine production growth in 2005 has left zinc smelters starved of concentrate, which has led to a deficit of refined metal, which has led to world prices 11% ahead of forecast. Revised forecasts for 2006 show another 9-10% increase.
Zinc is the only base metal in which J.P. Morgan Securities is forecasting a higher 2006 price average than the expected 2005 average. A constrained mine-concentrate supply situation, in combination with ongoing strong levels of demand for refined zinc by China, has left the 2005 market with an estimated deficit of 338,000 metric tons. Upshot: The 2005 price on the London Metal Exchange average annual price has risen to 63¢/lb from 48¢ in 2004. For 2006, a 201,000 metric ton deficit is projected. So, analyst Jon Bergtheil at J.P. Morgan’s nonferrous desk in London has raised the brokerage’s 2006 LME zinc price forecast to 67¢. While global growth for zinc metal is expected to rise 3.8% in 2006, he expects China’s demand to remain above a 10% growth rate of the past three years. This will maintain the deficit, Bergtheil says. "The expected deficit takes the world inventory level from the current levels of 6.5 weeks to a forecast 4.9 weeks by the end of 2006."
brerwallabi
30th-December-2005, 12:07 PM
Bris, a lot of good points on zinc in that link, and certainly Australian zinc companies reflect the ongoing demand and coming deficits in the current prices
ZFX about to test $7.00 again new highs, I really missed the boat on this one
KZL wow hit $2.30 new high earlier this morning - holding
PEM back up to $0.99 this could test $1.20 and possibly highs of previous year and test $1.40 if it gets through $1.20 - holding
CBH problems down to $0.20 no production atm but was upto .35cps before disaster hit mine tried to pick up at 16cps but damn did not fall that low, price will slowly come back to 30's but might take 12 months - no holding
2006 should be a good year for zinc imo
Ann
1st-January-2006, 08:09 PM
Hi Brerwallabi,
Did you see this article?
ZL hikes zinc, lead prices
Primary zinc prices raised 5% to Rs 97,500 a tonne, lead by Rs 400 a tonne
Dilip Kumar Jha / Mumbai December 03, 2005
Hindustan Zinc, the largest domestic zinc producer, has on Thursday hiked prices of primary zinc (99.5 per cent purity, ex-Debari/ex-Chanderia) by more than 5 per cent to Rs 97,500 per tonne, from Rs 92,600 per tonne (last revision effective November 16).
Price of high-grade zinc, with 99.5 per cent purity, has been raised to Rs 97,300 per tonne against Rs 92,400 per tonne. With the current revision, prime western zinc (98.5 per cent) shot up to Rs 95,500 per tonne vis-a-vis Rs 90,600 per tonne.
Ex-Vizag and ex-other depot prices differ up to Rs 2,000 based on the order size and the location. Hindustan Zinc also raised lead prices, by only Rs 400 per tonne to Rs 56,400 per tonne from Rs 56,000 per tonne (as per the previous revision).
Domestic zinc leader Hindustan Zinc revises selling prices fortnightly based on the movement of zinc prices on the London Metal Exchange (LME). The company has a market share of about 85 per cent, while Binanis shares about 5 per cent and the rest by the secondary producers.
Edit. Sorry that link doesn't seem to work. This is another link to Zinc.
Moderators...please feel free to squish this post...it is a link to another forum.
Just found this.
"BEIJING: China will reduce its tax rebate on exports of some metals and products to 5 per cent, including zinc, tin and antimony, from January 1, 2006, the Ministry of Finance said yesterday.
The export tax rebate would be reduced for magnesium, tungsten, tin, zinc and antimony as well as for related products and for scrap tin, zinc and antimony, it said in a statement on its website.
It did not say what the current rebate was."
Why rebate when the price is going through the roof obviously the Chinese see the zinc price going further.
saichuen
12th-January-2006, 05:45 PM
this one is looking good and moving up to test the $1.40 resistance level. :-)
brerwallabi
13th-January-2006, 09:06 PM
It might fly right through $1.40 without stopping, zinc up higher again and now past $US0.90 per lb, it should be PEM's best ever 6 months profit, remember there is some gold to take into account as well, its Daisy - Milano operation and Strike Oil which is 20% owned by PEM looks like being a winner as well for them.
Ann
14th-January-2006, 12:36 PM
You have said it all Brerwallabi
...and a picture of it flying....in case someone doesn't chart.
carpets
17th-January-2006, 09:33 PM
this one is looking good and moving up to test the $1.40 resistance level. :-)
Gone well above the resistance level now... A high today of 1.63, who would've thought?
If you look at market depth, this afternoon there where only 2 sellers, one at 1.70 and one at about 1.83, any takers? :sly:
Ann
17th-January-2006, 09:56 PM
That's absolutely amazing Carpets
Only two people selling with this quantity of trades for today after 12pm
Well they didn't blame me for their speeding ticket today, I have been trying to work out the performance of PEM, the expected profitabiilty and its damn hard with a moving dollar and the price of zinc escalating. I had hoping about 1.40 to 1.50 on PEM I am still holding I think there could be further upside seeing also some analysts are now saying they could dispose of Daisy Milano and that would certainly add a fair bit of cash to their balance sheet, some interesting days ahead. I wish I could find a few more of these, a Corolla to a Ferrari in days and still no stopping it.
brerwallabi
27th-January-2006, 01:06 PM
Geez this is going through the roof $0.98 to $2.07 in a month, its going to be hard to better this and we are only 4 weeks into the new year. Zinc is still increasing in price PEM's next six months wil be even better.
tony2252
27th-January-2006, 01:25 PM
bought this one at a $1 sold 1.33 bought again $2.00.
I thought 33% was good profit if only i held on! I thought it could not keep running.
yogi-in-oz
22nd-April-2006, 10:02 PM
:)
Hi folks,
PEM ..... price pulled back last week, but will be
alert for some significant and positive news,
this week .....:
Key days for PEM, may be:
24-26042006 ..... spotlight on PEM and aggressive rally???
08052006 ..... 2 cycles here - significant and positive
news ..... finance-related???
22052006 ..... minor time cycle.
26052006 ..... minor
02062006 ..... significant financial news???
06062006 ..... minor but positive cycle???
12062006 ..... significant and negative cycle
26062006 ..... positive and minor cycle
28062006 ..... minor
happy days
yogi
:)
Halba
23rd-April-2006, 12:50 PM
tony i did the same thing!
michael_selway
22nd-July-2006, 09:42 PM
:)
Hi folks,
PEM ..... price pulled back last week, but will be
alert for some significant and positive news,
this week .....:
Key days for PEM, may be:
24-26042006 ..... spotlight on PEM and aggressive rally???
08052006 ..... 2 cycles here - significant and positive
news ..... finance-related???
Perilya takes a wider view and finds more in reserve at Broken Hill
Email Print Normal font Large font Isabelle Oderberg
July 20, 2006
PERTH-based Perilya Ltd has increased the reserves at its Broken Hill base metal mine, thanks to a new mining technique and further drilling.
Perilya upgraded the NSW mine's reserves to 11.7 million tonnes, grading 7.3 per cent zinc, 4.8 per cent lead and 47.9 grams per tonne of silver, representing an 18 per cent increase in zinc and lead metal and a 12 per cent increase in tonnages.
Chief executive Len Jubber said the company would make a more detailed announcement on the reserves upgrade next week, but attributed the rise to a new mining technique in the Pillars area and extensions to the ore body found through further drilling.
"We expect those extensions to continue and we will continue to invest in them in the coming year," he said.
For the fourth quarter to June 30, the Broken Hill mine posted its highest quarterly total metal output since the corresponding quarter in 2003.
The mine's total contained metal production of 57,600 tonnes was up 6.5 per cent on the previous quarter, with constant zinc production, and 19.4 per cent higher lead production.
For the 2005-06 financial year, total ore mined was 2.05 million tonnes, compared to 1.88 million tonnes the previous year.
The full-year total for metal, zinc and lead was up 13.3 per cent year on year, with zinc up 9.2 per cent and lead up 22.4 per cent.
The ore mining rate in the past four months has been at an annualised rate of 2.2 million tonnes, with the company reporting that all key operating indicators had surpassed those reported in the March quarter.
Perilya's other major interest, the Daisy Milano goldmine near Kalgoorlie in Western Australia, produced 6465 ounces of the precious metal during the quarter from 31,473 tonnes of ore at 6.39 grams a tonne. The company said it expected a feasibility study on Daisy Milano would be presented to the board in August.
Mr Jubber said the company is maintaining margins, thanks to production improvements and dramatic increases in zinc prices.
"We have approximately 25 per cent of our production hedged over the next few years and, in principal, we are looking at a hedging range of 20 per cent to 40 per cent, which would enable us to build a platform for growth," he added.
kennas
9th-October-2006, 11:44 AM
PEMs had a good couple of weeks, looks set to test resistance at $3.10 ish. Needs to break this on volume for a more positive break upward.
Generally trending up since mid June low.
Kipp, your PM box is full.
itchy
25th-October-2006, 04:38 PM
PEM going for it the last few days, past resistence and at an all time high!
why is it always considered the poorer sister of KZl and ZFX ???
michael_selway
25th-October-2006, 04:43 PM
PEM going for it the last few days, past resistence and at an all time high!
why is it always considered the poorer sister of KZl and ZFX ???
PEM mainly mine life is the issue, its only about 6 yrs i think, so shorter than ZFX, CBH, KZL etc
but nevertheless, they should all rise if zinc prices rise etc
thx
MS
Brasidas
30th-October-2006, 07:27 AM
There is a good discussion of the next "nickel" sector - zinc - in this week's Minesite weekly roundup which is here in full.
That Was The Week That Was … In Australia
By Our Man In Oz
Minews. Good morning Australia, another week, another record?
Oz. It certainly was for some stocks, especially those selling zinc and nickel to the steel industry. You probably saw the same reports we did down this way, that the world has almost run out of zinc, and the nickel price is showing no sign of retreating from its astonishingly high levels. The end result, naturally, is that zinc stocks such as Zinifex (ZFX), Perilya (PEM), CBH (CBH), Kagara (KZL) and Terramin (TZN) have moved into the stratosphere, joining the nickel brigade who where already up there.
Minews. A few price examples please?
Oz. Zinifex hit a 12-month high of A$15.05 during Friday trade, before settling back to close the week at A$14.65, a gain of A$1.14 (8.4 per cent), Perilya was up A70 cents (20.8 per cent) to A$4.05, down a fraction on its 12-month high of A$4.10 reached on Thursday and Friday. Kagara also set a 12-month high on Friday of A$7.34, before easing back to A$7.21, still up A82 cents (12.8 per cent). CBH, which received a severe setback at this time last year with a stope collapse in its Endeavour mine, was up A5.5 cents (8.8 per cent) to A67.5 cents, also a modest retreat from its high of A73.5 cents set on Thursday. Terramin, which is developing a small zinc mine close to Adelaide in South Australia, was up A14 cents (8.9 per cent) to A$1.70, down from a Thursday high of A$1.75.
Minews. And the nickel sector was strong again?
Oz. Yes, but not to the same extent as the zincs. Jubilee (JBM), which held its annual meeting during the week and said takeovers were off its agenda, was up a modest A20 cents (1.6 per cent) to A$12.60, down on its cracking start to the week when the stock hit a 12-month high of A$12.98. Western Areas (WSA) put on A25 cents (7.4 per cent) to close the week at A$3.64, also down from its 12-month high of A$3.79 set on Tuesday, and Minara (MRE) was up A11 cents (2.2 per cent) to A$5.20, which was some distance behind its 12-month high of A$5.55 set last week.
Minews. It looks from those price movements that the nickel sector is awfully close to a peak?
Oz. It would seem that way. It also seems to be the same with a number of the stocks exposed to the bulk end of the market where the future direction of iron ore and coal prices is being questioned. There were no dramatic falls, but the rises were modest, and not helped by a bit of corporate fiddling. Aztec Resources (AZR), which has been struggling with a takeover bid from rival Mt Gibson (MGX), and the sudden discovery of a royalty on its Koolan Island iron ore project, which it forgot to tell everyone about, resumed trading after a period in the sin bin, but hardly inspired. Volume was high on Thursday and Friday but the price only moved between A23 cents and A24 cents. There might be more to come on that royalty fiasco. Aztec’s takeover suitor, Mt Gibson, was treated more harshly, dropping A1.5 cents (2 per cent) to A70.5 cents. At the top end of the iron ore hopefuls, Fortescue Metals (FMG) returned to favour with a A78 cents (8.8 per cent) rise over the week to close at A$9.58.
Minews. And presumably your uranium stocks were hot after the production problems in Canada?
Oz. A strong week for that sector with most stocks trending up. Paladin (PDN) reached a 12-month high on Wednesday of A$6, but then fell away quite sharply to close on Friday at A$5.46, which was still up A54 cents (11 per cent) on the week. Pepinnini (PNN) also set a new high mark, trading up to A75 cents on Friday before easing back to close at A73 cents, still up A5 cents (7.4 per cent) for the week.
Minews. Much on the downside?
Oz. Very little, even the gold sector, which has been a bit of a laggard, managed to deliver some strong performances. Agincourt (AGC) reported good drill results from its Calais prospect near Wiluna and gained another A5 cents (4 per cent) to A$1.25. More importantly, last weeks’ rise took the gain over the past nine trading days to A25 cents (25 per cent). The only fall really worth noting was Consolidated Minerals (CSM) which dropped A10 cents (4.2 per cent) to A$2.30 as the takeover frenzy which gripped the stock earlier in the month seemed to run out of puff.
yeah i got PEM! i am really enjoying the ride, picked them up at 80cents the end of last year!
Now im just hoping CBH will follow in their foot steps! :)
I dont really understand why they dont get nearly as much publicity as the KZl's and ZFX's on the frums!
Well im happy to hold them in silence!
michael_selway
4th-November-2006, 03:05 PM
yeah i got PEM! i am really enjoying the ride, picked them up at 80cents the end of last year!
Now im just hoping CBH will follow in their foot steps! :)
I dont really understand why they dont get nearly as much publicity as the KZl's and ZFX's on the frums!
Well im happy to hold them in silence!
**** nice, 80c
thx
MS
kennas
4th-November-2006, 03:20 PM
MS, what's the pe of all these Z stocks running like the wind? Surely they're catching up to fair value, or exceeded?
nizar
4th-November-2006, 04:24 PM
MS, what's the pe of all these Z stocks running like the wind? Surely they're catching up to fair value, or exceeded?
usually the pe doesnt run up that much when the EARNINGS are exceeding the share price appreciation!
CBH pe 7.5, ZFX pe 5.4, KZL pe 10.4
(and please dont tell me KZL looks overvalued as its not)
i suspect CBH will earn 13.5cps this year, ZFX $4+ and KZL $1+
(my opinions based on my calcs of $100m, $2b, and $200m in NPAT respectively)
so if the market is willing to pay the same earnings multiple as they are currently for these stocks, then KZL $10.40, CBH $1 and ZFX $21.60, though i suspect they market will pay a higher earnings multiple for them, so the upside is very clear.
michael_selway
5th-November-2006, 12:03 AM
MS, what's the pe of all these Z stocks running like the wind? Surely they're catching up to fair value, or exceeded?
Thanks Mike....certainly throws the light on the real performers....Still holding KZL and ZFX....I'm already a week overdue for my sell point....gets a bit scary when you play outside your system eh?
Somehow convinced myself there might be a bit more in these....slap me!
Cheers. CBH still looks like it will be the best value on current prices, if it delivers. No?
michael_selway
6th-November-2006, 09:03 PM
Cheers. CBH still looks like it will be the best value on current prices, if it delivers. No?
man all zinc stocks are goign crazy atm, PEM the most imo!
thx
MS
nizar
6th-November-2006, 09:07 PM
Cheers. CBH still looks like it will be the best value on current prices, if it delivers. No?
Agree.
But all ZFX, CBH and PEM are in blueskies at the moment. KZL will be shortly i suspect zinc spot just touched to us$2/lb!!
itchy
16th-November-2006, 08:43 PM
Interesting to see PEM was actually up today. justover 2%
i guess it did fall harder than some of th eothers though.
lets hope she sets a precident for the rest of the zinco's
michael_selway
21st-November-2006, 07:36 PM
Interesting to see PEM was actually up today. justover 2%
i guess it did fall harder than some of th eothers though.
lets hope she sets a precident for the rest of the zinco's
EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 103.5 4.7 146.0%
Year Ending 30-06-08 88.6 5.5 -14.4%
thx
MS
I feel so good about this one that I don't check the SP very often.
brerwallabi
28th-December-2006, 06:40 PM
Does anyone still own this stock?
Yes, ever since I started this thread I think some three years ago.
michael_selway
28th-December-2006, 07:46 PM
Yes, ever since I started this thread I think some three years ago.
oh ok and you didnt sell any of it yet right? ;)
thx
MS
brerwallabi
28th-December-2006, 08:27 PM
Michael
Read my previous posts I have traded this over a three year period and have made 22 entries and 21 exits I just took the trouble to check for you.
Last entry 4.63 and still holding, I like to get to know a company well.
It was still looking very very cheap last week, not so much today but still cheap....
The market has finally got some confidence in PEM it has had a few years of false promises and non performance but the last 12 months has seen some operational issues being addressed and production targets coming through.
Flinders approval just come through very high grade project.
Mine life at Broken Hill also looks to be further extended.
Looks like it will be a big cash cow.
Much will now depend on the price of zinc I presume your figures have been worked out at the around price assumptions of US$1.70lb try US$2.00.
Yes it looks even better doesn't it.
Moneybags
10th-January-2007, 11:38 AM
Tragedy today for PEM workers at Broken Hill mine with a fatality overnight.
Condolences to family.
Operations temporarily suspended.
MB
mmmmining
7th-February-2007, 02:41 PM
Zinc price recovered well. So are most zinc producers. Why this one is not? Anyone knows? Maybe a good trading opportunity?
UraniumLover
12th-February-2007, 10:44 PM
Gold is doing well, zinc prices is on recovery, well stabilized at 1.40. Back to what it was 6 months a go from about 3 months. LME stock levels have been declining for last month, but a large increase yesterday. Don't think there is much more down side.
legs
23rd-April-2007, 02:07 PM
Just want your opinion on where this stock could be heading??? Has been down on last years highs over $5....can it get back up there?? :confused:
legs
27th-April-2007, 01:42 PM
Damn missed the nice rise last few days...down today but I believe there is lots more upside...anyone???
legs
3rd-May-2007, 03:43 PM
$4.62 how far is this boat going???? Always the way....you say you like it, you consider getting in, you don't and YOU are an IDIOT!! Up 15.5% in 10 days great cash reserves still. Zinc is strong.
Love Zn
3rd-May-2007, 05:44 PM
The boat is still along way from it's high of $5.80 and it appears that it's rise back to that level (in % terms) is slower compared to ZFX and KZL.
But with the way the LME price was going this week, I must say the boat ride is enjoyable ;)
legs
21st-May-2007, 05:35 PM
Perilya, Australia's third-largest zinc producer, jumped 9.8 percent to A$4.50, after Goldman Sachs JBWere upgraded its rating on the firm to buy from hold, citing its attractive valuations and strong earnings per share growth potential in fiscal 2008.
Love Zn
21st-May-2007, 05:57 PM
And here is me thinking it might have been something to do with KZL being on hold. Always so many merger/take over talks with the three Aussie Zinc Companies.
legs
31st-May-2007, 06:05 PM
chart for PEM. Nothing real exciting here but trying out attaching a graph. Hope it works so i can add this info to my posts.
Tye
20th-June-2007, 01:38 PM
perilya, starting to climb its way back up to the top. Has had a poor year so far but has broken most recent high. Zinifex has led the charge back in zinc shares so far so lets hope perilya can match it. The next obvious resistance is $5.
Bazmate
20th-June-2007, 01:44 PM
There's a bit of action in the share price all of a sudden, not that I'm complaining, this one has been in my bottom drawer for a while.... No news that I can find other than dropping zinc price... Any ideas?
Upcoming announcement perhaps?
Lachlan6
20th-June-2007, 05:01 PM
Just a quick opinion on (PEM) technically. It looks like its at a very important juncture at the moment. It has just pushed through the important 50% level from Jan 07 highs to the double bottom in March and its next big test seems like the gap refill area from Feb at $5.02. If it can push through this then the old highs should be reached.
Love Zn
20th-June-2007, 05:55 PM
Good graph Lachlan. I was very surprised with PEM today, I was fully expecting this to bounce down off the $4.72-75 resistance, especially with the Zinc price dropping over night. I've also got my next resistance at $5.00 and then think around $5.40 and finally $5.70-75 on the way up.
ZFX did well yesterday and PEM today, maybe it's KZL's turn tomorrow :p:
reece55
20th-June-2007, 09:24 PM
Bit of a weak close, but still she's looking very nice at the moment.
Just for amusement, attached is the weekly chart. Assuming we have entered our wave 5 (which I believe we have), here are the potential extended wave 5 targets as wave 3 was less than a 1.62 extension.....
Start Finish Movement % on W1
W1 $0.80 $3.61 $2.81
W3 $1.92 $5.80 $3.88 138.08%
Potential targets as wave 3 was less than a 1.62 extension
.62 of W 0 - 3 $6.62
1 of W 0 - 3 $8.52
1.62 of W 0 - 3 $11.62
Would be incredible even if we got the first outcome!!!
Cheers
reece55
20th-June-2007, 09:46 PM
Ah, crap, my wave 4 overlaps wave 1 for two days, only by 9 cents or like 2.5%!!!!!......
Any EW experts out there (Nick, Kauri, Wavepicker, etc.), I know that they say that only leveraged instruments are allowed to overlap, but there is no way the count is valid???? What a pain in the ****, because it looked so clean....
Cheers
Reece
countryboy
3rd-July-2007, 09:38 PM
PEM on boardroom radio today. Production is getting back to where they want and with Flinders ranges project about to kick off forecasts should be good for 2008. Pinacles mine some 10k out of town-Perilya should have a look at this.Good M & A prospect with a number of efficiencies that could be made due to its location.:cool:
countryboy
8th-July-2007, 12:09 AM
JV /maybe merger .....my source had too much too drink so I will suss out some more will be announced some time soon.Shares in the other company will be worth more. Countryboy will do some more wining and dining to find out what is going on....and of course buy shares in this company before he tells anyone else but ASF has been told first !!!
rustaman
8th-July-2007, 12:48 PM
JV /maybe merger .....my source had too much too drink so I will suss out some more will be announced some time soon.Shares in the other company will be worth more. Countryboy will do some more wining and dining to find out what is going on....and of course buy shares in this company before he tells anyone else but ASF has been told first !!!
Seems like your cousin "bushkid" got to blather first on HC at 00.08am.
Wine and dine on boyo. :cool:
Tye
17th-July-2007, 11:19 AM
Pem is starting to bang it head around $5. Fair bit of resistance here. With zinc rising to 3-month highs a break above $5 may see perilya going for a nice move. also zinc stockpiles are falling quite fast. This also helps. Cant wait for the break (if so)
Tye
18th-July-2007, 12:28 PM
not looking to shabbby up 10c in a falling market. This is always a good sign of continuing strength.:)
countryboy
19th-July-2007, 11:10 PM
Sydney - Thursday - July 19: (RWE Australian Business News) -
Perilya Ltd (ASX:PEM) has reported full-year production from Broken Hill of 92,100 tonnes of zinc and 60,500 tonnes of lead. Increased June quarter production of 22,000 tonnes zinc and 14,500 tonnes lead, coupled with higher lead prices, resulted in net cash operating costs of US58c/lb, 60pc lower than the previous quarter. Cash operating margin of US85c/lb zinc was comparable to that achieved in the first half of 2006/07. The fifth anniversary of Perilya's ownership of the Broken Hill mine was marked on June 1. Since acquisition, the operation has produced 642,000 tonnes of zinc, 298,000 tonnes of lead and 8.6 million ounces of silver. During this period, the ore reserve has been broadly maintained. At Flinders, open-pit mining operations at Beltana continue ahead of schedule and under budget. A total of 10,544 tonnes of high-grade ore at an average grade of 33.9 per cent zinc was mined during the quarter. Resource drilling at Reliance has returned "excellent" results, including 36 metres at 31.8pc zinc from 58 metres. The process of obtaining development approvals has commenced for the Reliance, Moolooloo, Aristotle and Aroona2 deposits, located within 15 kilometres of the Beltana operation.
the lower you go at BH you tend to pick up more lead- according to some old miners.One of the middle levels will be mined out this year and so the focus will be a bit deeper.Its all super quality ore mind you.
For my money PEM will need a substantial aquisition to take it foward in the next 10 yrs. Worth watching:cool:
Tye
10th-August-2007, 10:51 AM
30% fall in 3 weeks. This was looking great 3 weeks ago. Does anyone think that this can ever be recovered, because a belting like that is never good for investors and traders. I heard it was cheap at over $5 now its under $4. This share is so volitile.:confused:
UMike
10th-August-2007, 09:20 PM
Must say I had a bit of a nibble on it today.
.
Did about $24 mil in trade throughout the day though.
countryboy
11th-September-2007, 08:54 PM
from todays australian:
Perilya (PEM) $3.77Font Size: Decrease Increase Print Page: Print Tim Boreham | September 11, 2007
HAVING twice given the nod to the Broken Hill base metals producer and twice been chastened, Criterion is loath to give Perilya the benefit of the doubt.
Yet Perilya's numbers look compelling. Despite a sharp retraction last week, lead prices have still doubled this year while zinc continues to be in tight supply. At the same time, Perilya is emerging from the production hiccups stemming from the death of a worker in January's underground accident.
In the wake of the tragedy, 2007 production slid dramatically to 92,800 tonnes of zinc and 61,000 tonnes of lead, from the previous year's 144,000 tonnes and 75,000 tonnes respectively. The lower production affected per-tonne costs, as did the use of lower-grade ore. The buoyant prices saw Perilya post a "record" $82.5 million for the year to June 30, 2007 (take out asset sales and the result was less glossy).
Perilya forecasts current-year output of 120,000-140,000 tonnes of zinc and 70,000-80,000 tonnes of lead. There's also 28,000 tonnes of 35 per cent grade ore stockpiled at the Flinders Zinc (Beltana) project in South Australia, expected to be sold in the December quarter.
Broker Patersons notes that Broken Hill grades should improve as Perilya moves to higher-grade stopes.
An unabashed fan of the stock, Patersons forecasts a current-year net result of $119 million and earnings per share of 67.1c, which puts the stock on a miserly PE ratio of 5.6 times. This assumes an average zinc price of $US1.14 a pound, compared with the current $US1.28/lb.
Goldman Sachs JB Were's Perilya watchers are more grudging, noting in part that Perilya paid a 1c dividend when the firm expected 10c. Presumably Perilya -- sitting on cash reserves of $173 million -- is eyeing an acquisition.
As with Zinifex's Century mine, Broken Hill has a short (six-year) mine life. Perilya is moving away from its flagship Broken Hill through the Beltana project, which is "on schedule and below budget".
Criterion rated Perilya a buy at $5.37 on January 31 and then again at $4.23 on February 8. Laughable calls, perhaps, but if Perilya's production recovers, the stock looks laughably cheap.
For a third time we say buy, but any more hiccups over the next year and it's bye-bye.
:o
Ken
27th-September-2007, 10:34 PM
PEM doesnt seem to have recovered as much as MMX or MCR or MIS from its lows.
Any ideas why?
I wanted to pick some up after I heard the Patersons report online.
But I am just going to wait and see, am riding the financials at the moment.
michael_selway
28th-September-2007, 12:16 AM
PEM doesnt seem to have recovered as much as MMX or MCR or MIS from its lows.
Any ideas why?
I wanted to pick some up after I heard the Patersons report online.
But I am just going to wait and see, am riding the financials at the moment.
Well zinc price is not that hot as yet, plus they do have a limited 6 year mine life.
There are a lot of concerns though this one is a nice bluechip that has not recovered well since correction.
I bought in yesterday at 4.05 on open, I liked the look of this one, trading on a PE of 6 and expected earnings upgrades will put this one back in favour IMO.
The short mine life is a concern, though PEM are well cashed up and rumoured to be on the prowl.
mishu
2nd-November-2007, 12:39 PM
With the market like it is today I notice PEM is holding up well. Even flat at one stage. Also I note that AMP increased its holding to 5 percent in yesterday's notices. The company looks strong and safe with its ongoing operational mines, hedged dollar, hedged lead prices and money to expand. Its hedged for a dollar above 83 cents.
There is some discussion about whether it might be a takeover target itself on other forums. Having good assets makes that more likely but they also have a lot of cash on hand which they intend to use to expand. They are evidently in talks about a joint operation with another company for a mine near the Broken Hill region.
michael_selway
2nd-November-2007, 08:07 PM
With the market like it is today I notice PEM is holding up well. Even flat at one stage. Also I note that AMP increased its holding to 5 percent in yesterday's notices. The company looks strong and safe with its ongoing operational mines, hedged dollar, hedged lead prices and money to expand. Its hedged for a dollar above 83 cents.
There is some discussion about whether it might be a takeover target itself on other forums. Having good assets makes that more likely but they also have a lot of cash on hand which they intend to use to expand. They are evidently in talks about a joint operation with another company for a mine near the Broken Hill region.
Thanks for that info Michael. I don't recall seeing it before. Where was it from? Do you like the share? It looks good again today - its up today when the market is down.
UMike
6th-November-2007, 02:13 PM
It's really diving now :(
An almost 1 grand profit is now more than negative 1 grand.
Can this one turn around?
UMike
6th-November-2007, 02:44 PM
LOL
Lost 3% before going back to $3.67.
This share is crazier than KCN :lol:
Hopefully this recovery continues.
mishu
6th-November-2007, 03:05 PM
Yeah it is volatile. That can be good as well as bad. It can mean a faster rise up again. My partner made significant gains on this stock earlier this year. He bought back in recently and is happy to hold.
michael_selway
6th-November-2007, 07:50 PM
Yeah it is volatile. That can be good as well as bad. It can mean a faster rise up again. My partner made significant gains on this stock earlier this year. He bought back in recently and is happy to hold.
Hi Mishu, why are you guys buying it? doesnt it have a relatively short mine life i.e. 6 years about?
thx
MS
Ken
6th-November-2007, 09:30 PM
Perilya is cashed up and on the prawl for an acquisition.
If they continue to fall the stock will become a takeover target certainly.
Watch this space.
Dont go bottom picking.
Fundamentals come into resource stocks, forward looking eps are deceptive because they also rely on commodity prices.
Worth noting that PEM is a top ten lead producer in the world.
So they are not a small speculative stock.
I think they are unloved because of the short mine life.
An acquisition of another company could very well give investors long term confidence to get stuck in.
There are several target prices of $4-$5.20
mishu
7th-November-2007, 10:48 AM
It has two active mines and plans for 4-5. It has the sites and money to develop them. We think the share is very good value currently and we expect a good return on it over the next two-three months.
mishu
7th-November-2007, 02:12 PM
It's up 4 and a half percent today. I am convinced that this stock has good prospects- both on its own merits, and also either through acquiring or being acquired.
GREENS
8th-November-2007, 12:58 AM
Have to say, when people talk about PEM being one of the biggest Lead producers and benefiting greatly from the rising price of Ld, one needs to only look at their hedging strategy for the metal for the 08 and 09 Financial years to see, that although they may be the among the biggest producers they would certainly not be among the top earners for the metal. They have close to 50% of their Lead production hedged for 08 @ approx AU$0.75/lb and for 09 @ approx AU$0.80/lb. When Ld has been currently hovering around AU$ 1.80/lb, no wonder investors aren’t poring in for the exposure to Ld, because if investors did want exposure to Ld your probably be better off jumping on other miners that are producing way less but are fully unhedged and have greater diversity in their metal production to also take advantage of higher Cu, Ag & Au prices. I was looking at the company because it appeared to be good value, but considering the price of Zn at the present time and the grim outlook over the feasible future, the low profit margin compared to its peers, the short mine life and the relatively high cost of production at broken hill, it was obvious why it traded on such a low PE multiple. After looking at these basic fundamentals I didn’t even bother looking at the company’s development and exploration, so maybe I am missing something and this is where the value of the company really lies. However one good thing to come out of its hedging plan is that it hedged against the AUD/USD at an ER around $0.83, which will benefit its Zn sales compared to other miners. Still trading on a PE of 8 to me says that surely this hasn’t got too much more downwards movement, unless their current mine experiences some server output problems or Zn heads sharply south. So maybe its one for the bottom drawer, but the question is how long will it have to stay in the bottom drawer to earn its rewards? Nevertheless the brokers seem to place high hopes for it, so good luck to all those that hold.
mishu
12th-November-2007, 01:40 PM
PEM has bought a significant holding(8%)in Herald which is developing a mining site with excellent lead and zinc resources in Indonesia. Production and Labor costs should be lower there.
mishu
12th-November-2007, 02:07 PM
Greens I think you misunderstand PEM's position.
From a financial report they submitted to the ASX:
"Metal Put Options
The company has acquired put options over approximately 50% of forecast lead sales to June 2009. These put options
provide the right, but not the obligation, to sell lead at an agreed strike price at a future date (refer to Table 4 on page 10).
The overall effect of these USD lead put options and the AUD call options is a minimum gross achievable price of
A$3,316 per tonne on the 30,221 tonnes hedged for the balance of FY08, and A$2,666 per tonne on the 38,701 tonnes
hedged in FY09, whilst maintaining upside exposure to a rising lead price and/or a weakening AUD."
GREENS
12th-November-2007, 03:32 PM
Greens I think you misunderstand PEM's position.
From a financial report they submitted to the ASX:
"Metal Put Options
The company has acquired put options over approximately 50% of forecast lead sales to June 2009. These put options
provide the right, but not the obligation, to sell lead at an agreed strike price at a future date (refer to Table 4 on page 10).
The overall effect of these USD lead put options and the AUD call options is a minimum gross achievable price of
A$3,316 per tonne on the 30,221 tonnes hedged for the balance of FY08, and A$2,666 per tonne on the 38,701 tonnes
hedged in FY09, whilst maintaining upside exposure to a rising lead price and/or a weakening AUD."
Mishu
Yes you are correct in saying they have 50% hedge of there Ld production using put options, but they have also entered into forward contracts (which I would assume to be a short and not a long position) for the sale of the other 50% of Ld production. Refer to page 10 of their latest quarterly report, its all there. This means that they will have a loss on their put options and have forgone significant revenues from entering into their forward contracts at such low prices. Forward contracts are an obligation to deliver a certain amount of contained Ld at a particular price you don’t have any choice whether you want to exercise or not.
08 Forward Contracts – 25,006t @ $AU 1,447/tn & 4,794t @ $US 2,446/tn & additional put options as you mentioned. Adding to this is their small position in Zn Forwards 18,000t @ $AU 2,466/tn.
09 Forward Contracts – 33,242t @ $AU 1,748/tn and small position in Zn again 16,246t @ $AU 3,768/tn.
10 Forward Contracts – 5,460t @ $AU 3,359/tn
If you can prove this to be wrong, I would be quite happy, because then maybe PEM would be worth considering in a market where value is hard to find.
michael_selway
12th-November-2007, 07:18 PM
Mishu
Yes you are correct in saying they have 50% hedge of there Ld production using put options, but they have also entered into forward contracts (which I would assume to be a short and not a long position) for the sale of the other 50% of Ld production. Refer to page 10 of their latest quarterly report, its all there. This means that they will have a loss on their put options and have forgone significant revenues from entering into their forward contracts at such low prices. Forward contracts are an obligation to deliver a certain amount of contained Ld at a particular price you don’t have any choice whether you want to exercise or not.
08 Forward Contracts – 25,006t @ $AU 1,447/tn & 4,794t @ $US 2,446/tn & additional put options as you mentioned. Adding to this is their small position in Zn Forwards 18,000t @ $AU 2,466/tn.
09 Forward Contracts – 33,242t @ $AU 1,748/tn and small position in Zn again 16,246t @ $AU 3,768/tn.
10 Forward Contracts – 5,460t @ $AU 3,359/tn
If you can prove this to be wrong, I would be quite happy, because then maybe PEM would be worth considering in a market where value is hard to find.
Date: 15/10/2007
Author: Michael Vaughan
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 22
Australian-listed base metals group Perilya will pursue acquisitions in order tosignificantly boost its market capitalisation. Perilya is currently valued atless than $A1bn, but CEO Len Jubber says the group's aim is to increase itscapitalisation to more than $A2bn. Perilya will seek to acquire a base metalproject in the near-term, although Jubber says the group wants to ensure that itbuys the right asset at the right price. Perilya shares eased $A0.17 on 12October 2007, closing at $A4.25
Back
Date: 12/11/2007
Author: Michael Vaughan
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 16
On 8 November 2007, listed Australian miner, Perilya, purchased five millionsshares in Herald Resources from Renaissance Capital. It is not expected thatPerilya will launch a takeover bid at this stage, although CEO Len Jubberrecently indicated that Perilya aims to purchase a base metal miner by 31December. Herald Resources is valued at $A310 million. There is speculation thatPerilya could ask Herald Resources for access to due diligence and couldpotentially appoint a board member to the group. Shares in Herald Resourcesclosed $A0.08 higher on 9 November, at a record $A1.58, while Perilya fell$A0.03 to $A3.60
mishu
13th-November-2007, 10:51 AM
Mishu
Yes you are correct in saying they have 50% hedge of there Ld production using put options, but they have also entered into forward contracts (which I would assume to be a short and not a long position) for the sale of the other 50% of Ld production. Refer to page 10 of their latest quarterly report, its all there. This means that they will have a loss on their put options and have forgone significant revenues from entering into their forward contracts at such low prices. Forward contracts are an obligation to deliver a certain amount of contained Ld at a particular price you don’t have any choice whether you want to exercise or not.
08 Forward Contracts – 25,006t @ $AU 1,447/tn & 4,794t @ $US 2,446/tn & additional put options as you mentioned. Adding to this is their small position in Zn Forwards 18,000t @ $AU 2,466/tn.
09 Forward Contracts – 33,242t @ $AU 1,748/tn and small position in Zn again 16,246t @ $AU 3,768/tn.
10 Forward Contracts – 5,460t @ $AU 3,359/tn
If you can prove this to be wrong, I would be quite happy, because then maybe PEM would be worth considering in a market where value is hard to find.
The forward contract sales are there alright. And yes they are at low prices. But the rest of the product will likely be at better prices than the rest of the market will get. PEM's financials are on target for the expected profit as of the last financial report. (Unlike ZFX, they have not issued a profit downgrade). I have asked PEM to clarify the position regarding the forward sales and the projected minimum price attainable - no answer as yet, but I truly do not see the pre-sales as a bar to a growing company, well managed, and developing into Indonesia in all likelihood.
Regarding mine-life, I am not expecting to have to hold the share 6 years :) When the first Flinders project sales are made this quarter i believe they will boost figures and result in a very good December quarter report. However, investment in Herald for its rich Indonesian mining sites and extended exploration for other open and other mining prospects continues.
You can see about the ongoing exploration and development of sites in the latest quarterly report.
mishu
14th-November-2007, 10:35 AM
I note that ZFX has recently announced it expects lower revenues than predicted due to the falling price of zinc and the high dollar and rising mine costs. (Apparently brought on by analysts lowering their outlook for zinc prices to 1.25 per pound from 1.75)
Relevant to that I note that PEM has evidently taken into account lower zinc prices when plannign their mining viability , cash flow and profits, has hedged against the dollar, is ahead of forecasts and below costs on the Beltana zinc production, and is actively exploring other avenues of lowering mining costs, including the Potosi deposit and the later possibility of taking over Herald.
Back to my original points. People have been suggesting:
1. That Perilya has substantial leverage to currently high Ld Price. My point was that yes they still do have 50% of production unhedged but their other 50% is hedged at considerably low prices. Investors can gain this same exposure through other companies with smaller production which are fully unhedged, yet have more attractive exposure to Cu, Au &/or Ag which have been performing much better than the other metals of late. Thus the reason why investors aren’t rushing in for the exposure, to the higher lead prices. Please let me know if this is incorrect when you hear back from the company, because as you can see from reading the report, it obviously says they have future contracts amounting to the volumes discussed in my previous post.
2. It is good value because it is trading on a low PE multiple. The fact that you wont be holding until the mine exhausts its resources in 6 years is not the point (even though it is likely this mine will continue producing for longer, as each mine manager has been saying this for ages). But current short mine life combined with high costs of production and relatively lower margins compared to its peers clearly justifies why it trades at a discount and inturn on a low PE multiple. Add the poor performance of the Zn price of late with the grim outlook from brokers for the rest of 2007/08 and things aren’t looking so crash hot. I think the fact that PEM has only managed profit margins of 19.5% (06) and 21% (07) in a major commodities bull market speaks loud and clear.
As I said before I did not get into the nitty gritty of their exploration and development, just had a brief glance, so could be missing something here, feel free to elaborate on this if there is anything important. Nevertheless brokers seem to like it and think it is undervalued so maybe your short term view will pay off.
mishu
16th-November-2007, 03:42 PM
They have active ongoing exploration and hold many promising sites Greens. Did you see yesterday's announcement? They had drilling results showing a doubling of their copper resource at Mt Oxide - and good suitability for open cut mining.
michael_selway
17th-November-2007, 05:58 PM
They have active ongoing exploration and hold many promising sites Greens. Did you see yesterday's announcement? They had drilling results showing a doubling of their copper resource at Mt Oxide - and good suitability for open cut mining.
Date: 12/11/2007
Author: Michael Vaughan
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 16
On 8 November 2007, listed Australian miner, Perilya, purchased five millionsshares in Herald Resources from Renaissance Capital. It is not expected thatPerilya will launch a takeover bid at this stage, although CEO Len Jubberrecently indicated that Perilya aims to purchase a base metal miner by 31December. Herald Resources is valued at $A310 million. There is speculation thatPerilya could ask Herald Resources for access to due diligence and couldpotentially appoint a board member to the group. Shares in Herald Resourcesclosed $A0.08 higher on 9 November, at a record $A1.58, while Perilya fell$A0.03 to $A3.60
15 November 2007
Excellent new drill intercepts at Mount Oxide copper project
Perilya Limited (ASX:PEM) are pleased to announce further significant results from recent drilling at the Mount Oxide copper project in Queensland, Australia. Highlights include:
Drill hole MOXD59 intersected 171 metres at 1.0% copper from 111 metres downhole, which includes 26.6 metres at 1.7% copper and 18 metres at 2.6% copper on the northern margin of the current resource
Drill hole MOXD62 intersected 80 metres @ 0.8% copper that includes 28 metres at 1.8% copper from 23 metres down
hole, north of the current resource
Drilling further north of the existing resource continues to intersect visible copper mineralisation.
Len Jubber, chief executive officer, said that this was an exciting result that has highlighted the potential of the current drilling program to increase the inferred resource to 250,000 - 300,000 tonnes of copper. “Our confidence in what is likely to initially be an open cut mining project is increasing with each drill hole,” he said.
Mount Oxide Project (100 per cent owned)
The Mount Oxide project is located in the Mount Isa region
western succession that includes major sediment hosted
breccia copper deposits and uranium mineralisation. The
deposit was intermittently mined between 1920 and 1971 by
way of a small open pit and underground operation. The project
lies 25 kilometres north of the existing Mount Gordon mine
operated by Aditya Birla Limited.
The deposit is a chalcocite dominated system associated with strong silica-hematite alteration and copper mineralisation developed on the margins of the hematite core. The mineralisation is hosted in a sedimentary package associated with a strong structural control along the northeast trending Mount Oxide fault and cross cutting faults. The current Mount Oxide resource (4 million tonnes at 2.8% copper) is 112,000 tonnes of contained copper (see Perilya’s 2007 Concise Annual Report).
mishu
19th-November-2007, 11:49 AM
I am not sure why you are stuck on mine life. Obviously new resources and interests in various other companies add to the company life and mine life.
Take a look at the diversity and intelligence of the management of the resources they have and the way they are expanding.
They have at least 6 years mine life in the Broken Hill mine. They have an ongoing interest in Silver Lakes. They have another operating mine and they have now found a good site for open cut copper mining. They have other good drilling results in other locations. And they have the stake in Herald.
mishu
20th-November-2007, 02:43 PM
Nice for companies that mine zinc and lead that lead is apparently going into deficit according to a recent article. Particularly with zinc prices falling as they have.
Tye
20th-November-2007, 04:52 PM
just wondering how you guys are coping with perilya. I dont know anything about T.A or Fundamentals. But to an untrained person like myself it looks as perilya has had it for good. The market is so strong but perilya is so weak. (what a crap share, considering my broker told me to buy it at over $5, bloody dick head)
legs
20th-November-2007, 06:03 PM
just wondering how you guys are coping with perilya. I dont know anything about T.A or Fundamentals. But to an untrained person like myself it looks as perilya has had it for good. The market is so strong but perilya is so weak. (what a crap share, considering my broker told me to buy it at over $5, bloody dick head)
The market is anything but strong, with ALL resource commodities down to 3 mth lows. This stock has been hit hard but look at similar cap stocks such as Oxiana that copped a 6% fall today, not as bad as PEM. MRE 3.8% down, ZFX 3.73% down, etc etc. It will rebound in my opinion and when it does I will be all smiles as I seem to buy more each day it gets lower. :D
I must say $5 is my target however, so maybe he was a bit over enthusiastic about it.
countryboy
20th-November-2007, 11:27 PM
you have a wins and losses Tye. PEM above $5 maybe a bit hard to swallow.The guys are still pulling plenty of tonnage out of the mine and management is looking for a merger ,aquisition or take over. The lousy 1c dividend recently didn't help the share price but gave PEM a small warchest to go after something. i know your not allowed to post targets on this site but for me its current price says buy- undervalued ( PE etc) I aim to exit above $4 which PEM has bounced off several times this year.
mishu
22nd-November-2007, 08:35 AM
Interesting to see what happens today with this stock. It is at the bottom of the Williams, at which point 85% of stocks bounce up. However zinc fell again last night.
countryboy
22nd-November-2007, 10:01 PM
Ouch ! broke the $3 mark. For me this is over sold and represents great value. Still mining lead which has made up for any shortfall in the price of Zinc. No lead from the DOW so the market will go sideways unless metal prices go south again tomorrow.To buy or not to buy...that is the question
Ken
23rd-November-2007, 08:31 AM
PEM could fall to $1.50 and still be lining up with a 5-7 year upward trend.
There is massive gapping from $3.40 south.....
Thus why I think its very volatile.
It's hard to pick a bottom for stocks like these, because they move so quickly when they do.
Confirmed downtrend for last 12 months you'd say. Well off all time highs.
EPS still looking good going forward. Counts for nothing when people are selling up though...
legs
23rd-November-2007, 08:53 AM
Lead 2845.0000 -65.0000 -2.2337 USD/t Mkt Close, Nov 22
Zinc 2226.0000 +5.5000 +0.2477 USD/t Mkt Close, Nov 22
Probably take another pounding on the -2.2% Lead fall. OUCH!!:banghead:
I agree and actually jumped in today 2.9. Healthy company that's been oversold over the last few months.
Ken
26th-November-2007, 09:43 PM
Heres some charts of ZINC and PEM.
Its pretty interesting I think. Says a lot about the way PEM is traded.
mishu
27th-November-2007, 10:16 AM
Very true. PEM has been very tightly linked to zinc in its trade.
In that light, zinc price was up again overnight. More than 4 percent. That is several rises in a row now- infact it has turned around and climbed ever since China did its allowance in its market of allowing a thirteen percent drop to muster support for it, which worked.
Also PEM, looks like being able to diversify into copper, somethign ZFX would liek to do. Have you heard the interview about Mount Oxide that was out yesterday? Looks like the area is good not just for copper but also cobalt and may be good for more extensive mining as well as open cut.
If I had the money I would probably be buying in around now. Within a week anyway. But the share represents great value for money right now in my view.
What does this mean, other than very frustrating times. or does it mean get some margin loan happening....
Speaking out loud.
Still trading on a silly forward looking PE ratio.
I purchased PEM late last week and sold today. I made a small profit (paid my brokerage). To be honest I forgot why I sold!!! .....oh I remember, was to buy more Allco Finance after the citigroup cash injection which was designed to calm those exposed to the sub-prime fallout. (correct me if I'm wrong)
I've just had another look and PEM still seems like a good thing. (guess that's why I purchased last week huh) Etrade research shows, 4 strong buys, 3 moderate buys and one hold.
I've only been trading for 18 months but I learnt early on, that most of the people in the Market are sheep. I don't mean that in a rude way, but often it takes someone to make the first move. If the price stays the same or lower this week I'll probably buy back in. I don't think we'll have to wait long for PEM to turn around. I think a positive increase in a commodities price could be all it takes.
"THE first shipment of zinc silicate ore from Perilya's Beltana mine has been loaded at Port Pirie, bound for China.
Perilya said yesterday one of the largest users of zinc silicate in the world had pre-paid for the 10,000 tonne shipment, with a second shipment planned for January....
Currently, 160,332 tonnes of high grade zinc ore at an average grade of 39.2 per cent zinc and 80,112 tonnes of low grade zinc ore at an average grade of 16.1 per cent has been mined and stockpiled on site, ready for shipment to Port Pirie.
Sales of the ore were expected to continue for another two to three years."
mishu
28th-November-2007, 05:45 PM
Zinc LME stockpiles have fallen again. While the price of zinc had a minor setback last night it did rise 5 percent the previous day. Vast over reaction in the market today.
mishu
29th-November-2007, 07:33 AM
And zinc prices back up again today. That would be i think 5 out of the last 6 days.If this stock does not start rising soon I want to know why.
legs
29th-November-2007, 11:17 AM
And zinc prices back up again today. That would be i think 5 out of the last 6 days.If this stock does not start rising soon I want to know why.
Zinc 2479.0000 +104.0000 +4.3789 USD/t Mkt Close, Nov 28
Yes it appears it has finally reversed its trend. However Lead wasn't very impressive:-
Lead 3022.5000 +20.5000 +0.6829 USD/t Mkt Close, Nov 28
We need a better turnaround in lead as well to see it back up near $4. :D
legs
29th-November-2007, 03:08 PM
Do you think the market has finally caught up to this? Is a +7% daily upturn really just from this or is there more to this turnaround? Any whispers?:D
countryboy
2nd-December-2007, 10:13 PM
PEM - PERILYA LIMITED
Credit Suisse rates PEM as Outperform - A positive for the company is it has begun to ship ore from the Beltana Project, but as the broker notes zinc prices are currently below its forecasts and this implies downside earnings risk.
Despite this the stock remains cheap in the broker's view as even on spot earnings it estimates the shares are trading on a FY09 P/E of around 5x.
Target price is $5.00 Current Price is $2.92 Difference:$2.08 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If PEM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately 71% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY08 dividend of 14.80 cents and EPS of 60.20 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 5.07%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 4.85.
countryboy
2nd-December-2007, 10:33 PM
Zinc prices zoom by 15%
MUMBAI: Zinc prices have moved up by over 15% in the week on London Metal Exchange making it the top gainer of all commodities during the week ended December 1.
On LME the 90-day contract closed at $2,590 per tonne from about $2,252 last week. On MCX, zinc December contract closed at Rs 102.95 from Rs 92.35 last Friday. The domestic spot prices also rose due to increased demand by stockists.
Good to see Credit Suisse rating this stock as one of its 4 hot picks in a recent news article. Also it can only be good for PEM that its holding in Herald is worth more because of the takeover bid for Herald by Bumi. Also recently rated by Huntley's as currently worth 3.55.
We are holding. I can't understand why people are selling unless it is a quick profit take.
UMike
17th-December-2007, 08:02 PM
Good to see Credit Suisse rating this stock as one of its 4 hot picks in a recent news article. Also it can only be good for PEM that its holding in Herald is worth more because of the takeover bid for Herald by Bumi. Also recently rated by Huntley's as currently worth 3.55.
We are holding. I can't understand why people are selling unless it is a quick profit take.Well it got hit hard today. :banghead:
Wish I sold half my holdings for $3.55 recently.
I too still am very positive about this stock.
michael_selway
17th-December-2007, 08:13 PM
Well it got hit hard today. :banghead:
Wish I sold half my holdings for $3.55 recently.
I too still am very positive about this stock.
Do you think a short mine life is an issue with PEM?
Date: 12/12/2007
Author:
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 17
The prices of key industrial metals have fallen sharply in recent months,reflecting international concern about the state of the US economy. The nickelprice fell by about four per cent in London trading on 11 December 2007, and ithas fallen by 49 per cent since peaking at $US51,800 in May. Likewise, the priceof zinc has fallen by over 45 per cent since late 2006 and the copper price isdown 18 per cent since May 2007. Meanwhile, the shares of Australian zinc andnickel producers such as Perilya, Zinifex and Jubilee Mines have fallen sharplyin the last month
mishu
19th-December-2007, 03:42 PM
"Perilya weighs into Herald bid
13 Dec 2007 | The Australian Financial Review | Michael Vaughan
Base metals miner Perilya will hold talks with Herald Resources following a $455 million bid for the explorer from Indonesia's largest mining company, PT Bumi Resources. "
"...Between January 8 and 14, the Dow Jones AIG commodity index will adjust the weighting of many commodities including zinc, nickel, copper and aluminium traded on the London Metal Exchange (LME).
The adjustment is likely to involve the purchase of about 250,000 tonnes of zinc and 10,000 tonnes of nickel. Both metals are used to make steel.
To put those numbers into perspective, stocks in LME warehouses now stand at around 77,000 tonnes for zinc and at 46,000 tonnes for nickel.
"If you look at buying relative to market size, the rebalancing is probably going to have its most significant impact on zinc," said Michael Jansen, analyst at JPMorgan.
"It will also be very friendly to nickel...""
http://www.guardian.co.uk/feedarticle?id=7149765
UMike
20th-December-2007, 10:39 PM
Do you think a short mine life is an issue with PEM?
I'll concede that I don't know a great deal about PEM (well not as much as I do CBH) but I am not overly concern about some estimation of the mine life.
Broken Hill Southern Operation conservatively credit five years mine life based on reserves.
As well as.....
Perilya (PEM) announced a Board decision to proceed with a six month feasibility study on the development of the 3.7Mt North Mine Deeps project at Broken Hill. Perilya's CEO, Len Jubber, said that the potential extension of the existing North Mine would add substantial value to the Broken Hill mine, extending the mine life and reducing dependence on the Southern Operations.
mishu
21st-December-2007, 09:28 AM
Regarding mine life they are also a go for copper since that discovery. And they have just sold their stake in Herald for a nice 16 million dollar profit, as I calculate it. Should be good for their bottom line this quarter.
Perilya Limited (ASX: PEM) has today sold its 8.86% shareholding in Herald Resources Limited for a total consideration of approximately $39.3 million and ceases to be a substantial shareholder.
...Background to Perilya
Perilya Limited is an ASX 200 Australian base metals mining and exploration company. Perilya is investing substantially in the development of its three major projects located in the Broken Hill, Mt Isa and Flinders regions as well as exploration in the surrounding tenements.
The company is expanding its operations at the iconic Broken Hill mine through the development of an exploration decline at
Potosi, re-developing the North mine via a development decline, conducting an open pit feasibility study into the Flying
Doctor deposit and conducting exploration within a ten kilometre radius of the concentrator.
During 2007 Perilya successfully mined and stockpiled approximately 77,000 tonnes of contained zinc from the Beltana deposit at the high grade zinc silicate Flinders project in South Australia. It is currently conducting a feasibility study into a similar project at the adjacent Reliance deposit. The high grade nature of the ore obviates the need for metallurgical
processing enabling direct shipment to smelters over the next couple of years.
The Company is also targeting a 200,000 – 300,000 tonnes copper resource through extension drilling at its 112,000 tonne
Mount Oxide copper project in the Mt Isa region in Queensland.
Perilya has a strong balance sheet with low debt levels and is actively seeking growth opportunities
Freeballinginawetsuit
21st-December-2007, 01:59 PM
Regarding mine life they are also a go for copper since that discovery. And they have just sold their stake in Herald for a nice 16 million dollar profit, as I calculate it. Should be good for their bottom line this quarter.
Yep the HER saga is a bit of a dissapointment for all concerned, PEM have done the right thing to exit there holdings for a tidy profit ( HER is a bit of a done deal in my opinion, all concerned may as well accept and move on).
Market isn't liking it ATM though.................perhaps most aren't happy at the 100% plus profit and wanted PEM to hold out for env approvals till the neva neva!.
IMO PEM are oversold and undervalued and have loaded up today :D
treefrog
21st-December-2007, 09:39 PM
technically (day chart) there is strong S/R line at $2.50 but then its down to S/R at $2.00
froggy's :2twocents worth is thatthe $2.50 level should hold and bounce for a while but a lot of overseas buying a coupla years back and suspect they would be bailing with falling zinc (halved since oct 06) and looks like completing a classic head and shoulders pattern taking it back to $1200 - if PEM goes with it share price will drop to $1.60 before mid next year
Freeballinginawetsuit
21st-December-2007, 11:26 PM
froggy's :2twocents worth is falling zinc (halved since oct 06) and looks like completing a classic head and shoulders pattern taking it back to $1200 - if PEM goes with it share price will drop to $1.60 before mid next year
Pretty much got the opposite cycle view on Zn price than you!.
PEM would be in some serious probs if the SP reached $1.60, considering there cash reserves and stockpiles.......... something like a cave in might do it though :rolleyes:.
treefrog
22nd-December-2007, 08:47 PM
hope u r right freeball - just calling what IS there atm and possibilities
the thread was concern/reason for PEM's current slide
have a good xmas
tronic72
27th-December-2007, 01:28 PM
Am looking at buying back into PEM. The recent high volume combined with a turn around in the Zinc price should make all the difference.
Here's part of what Huntley's said in their recent buy recommendation:
"We initiate PEM coverage with a Buy recommendation. Key attraction is likely production growth at Broken Hill and other advanced projects. Our valuation is $3.55ps. Long term assumptions are US70c/lb lead, US90c/lb zinc and US$10/oz silver. We use an A$/US$ foreign exchange of 0.80 and a 10% discount rate. PEM’s share price has languished since the tragic death of an employee in January."
Anyone else got PEM on their watch list?
DowJones
28th-December-2007, 02:24 PM
I have PEM on my watchlist. I have bought the stock twice. The recent one was about 2 months ago when I bought it at 3.90 and sold at 4.30. I thought it was going on a strong run...
The price of zinc needs to rebound, but on the other hand, what mining stock is trading at PE of 5.52???
Its EPS, however is decreasing due to their mine life - but they are cashed up and will acquire.
IMO, at $2.6 can it get cheaper? Wait for a more favourable RSI I think.
tronic72
28th-December-2007, 06:20 PM
The current RSI is only 30.1. I was under the impression that anything around the 30 mark meant the stock was over sold.
Correct me if I'm wrong.
:confused:
bvbfan
28th-December-2007, 11:03 PM
RSI can stay below 30 for a long period, doesn't make it a great buy now.
If you had used RSI, then on the run up the RSI went above 70 at about 2.90 but it stayed overbought to $5
treefrog
29th-December-2007, 05:29 PM
Am looking at buying back into PEM. The recent high volume combined with a turn around in the Zinc price should make all the difference.
Here's part of what Huntley's said in their recent buy recommendation:
"We initiate PEM coverage with a Buy recommendation. Key attraction is likely production growth at Broken Hill and other advanced projects. Our valuation is $3.55ps. Long term assumptions are US70c/lb lead, US90c/lb zinc and US$10/oz silver. We use an A$/US$ foreign exchange of 0.80 and a 10% discount rate. PEM’s share price has languished since the tragic death of an employee in January."
Anyone else got PEM on their watch list?
tronic - that Huntly report does not instill confidence as PEM forward sold all their silver for the next several years at less than $5/oz a couple of years ago - a significant blunder as the spot price of silver quickly rose to three times that shortly after the sale and is thereabouts today
the other thing that is not good news for PEM share price is that analysts are continuing to downgrade earnings forecasts
and living on top of their main cashcow here in broken hill one hears a lot of rumours about the local mine - one is that the amount of ore remaining in the north mine is much less than old records indicate and that comes from the former underground foreman for that mine who says they actually mined the pillars much narrower than agreed with the DoM - so who knows - refer to ASX ann "Decision to Proceed with North Mine Deeps Feasibility Study" dec 20
oldblue
30th-December-2007, 08:17 AM
Hi treefrog
Given the prospects for silver it would be interesting to know who PEM sold its 5 years' production to.
Any ideas? Did they ever disclose this?
treefrog
30th-December-2007, 09:30 AM
Hi treefrog
Given the prospects for silver it would be interesting to know who PEM sold its 5 years' production to.
Any ideas? Did they ever disclose this?
yes they did - this is part of their 9/9/05 asx ann......"PEM has sold 17.2million oz of payable silver to Coeur for an upfront payment US $36m - a further $6m will be paid in annual increments over the next 8 years plus $2 /oz as each oz is produced plus a refining charge of 31c/oz...."
This (in part) is was what I penned for the local rag around that time (14th jan 06)......... (the hillbilly trader = treefrog)
"But then the market has begun to wake up that 65% of Perilya’s product is zinc and that the zinc price growth that started in late 2004 was not a short term spike with the price having doubled from $1000/tonne to near $2000 today.
And hasn’t the Perilya price responded – up to the time of writing (Saturday) it has lifted 33% in just 10days.
A really rough check on this would be to say that the market valued Perilya shares somewhere around $1 over the last few years when it was drifting in and out of profit each year so all things being equal, the product selling prices have now doubled so we should be good for a significant free cash and earnings boost from here on – dare we hope for double on those and the share price as well?
Checking the longer term chart Perilya has twice before tried to break through the $1.45 level and failed (jan 94, jan 04) and looks set to have another attempt at this level. When trading, Hillbilly has observed that quite a few shares move above a price level on their third attempt. Conservative traders will wait for a clear break above that resistance, but for others the recent doubling in zinc price will be more than enough to jump on board with the expectation that dividends now should not now be too far away.
With our additional homework done, many would probably agree with the analyst who made the strong buy recommendation.
And does Hillbilly have any concerns about the hometown miner? One certainly. Just how market savvy are the Perilya board members when they sell all the family silver in September last year at the bargain basement price (to the purchaser mind) of little more than $5/oz when the market price was then $7.50 and rising solidly on the shirt-tails of the gold trend.
Silver is now $9/oz and rising rapidly with some year end forecasters suggesting $15/oz.
Let’s put this another way – Perilya produces silver, almost 2million oz a year at negligible cost because it is a by-product of the main lead and zinc operation. It sells this silver at half market price to buy a gold mine at full price. The forecast price increase for silver is to at least double but the price of gold to increase by only 40%.
All going well, the gold mine will produce 65,000oz pa, marketable at say $600/oz for a net say $200/oz giving $13m profit pa less the costs to buy the mine. Whereas the 2m oz of silver marketable at say $11/oz giving a net profit of $20m pa. Or $7m pa better off staying with the well proven silver production.
The CEO’s spin to shareholders is that it is a good deal, so I contacted the company a few times last week to understand how so as hillbillies are generally regarded as fairly thick, but I couldn’t get anyone to tell me.
And without a glossy market education on these matters, Hillbilly’s view is that the potentially foregone $50m on 17.2m oz silver would have been very welcome as dividends to the long suffering shareholders.
And let me state with certainty that board members won’t let this solid gold clanger affect their options, salaries and bonus entitlements. They will simply ask us to look how much better the share price is now than in June last year or some other diversion.
But that’s the market
Until next time
The hillbilly trader
oldblue
30th-December-2007, 09:48 AM
Thanks for that, treefrog.
I've been tracking PEM for a few months now but didn't research back far enough to find the goods! Very interesting, hillbilly was right on the money!
Seems to make CXC an even brighter prospect?;)
treefrog
4th-January-2008, 01:34 PM
keeps attacking the 2.50 S/R line looking for a hole
frog has changed his solid 2.50 S/R line to one with gaps in to signify the price is looking to go lower - as the gaps and holes are equal length now, it has a 50/50 chance to move lower next time it bumps up and down again.
mishu
16th-January-2008, 07:47 AM
"- PERILYA LIMITED
UBS rates as Upgrade to Buy from Neutral - The broker has lowered its target price to $3.05 from $3.35 after downgrading FY08 net profit by 48% and FY09 by 18%. This comes after factoring in the company?s weaker production guidance and lower short-term zinc prices into its valuation. UBS has, however, upgraded the rating to Buy from Neutral as it believes that much of the risk with Broken Hill?s operating performance has been priced into the share price. ... "
This is a recent upgrade to buy from UBS.
Source FN Arena Broker Call Headlines - 11 Jan 2008
Sunday Jan 13 10:30 AEDT
DowJones
16th-January-2008, 05:17 PM
I remember buying this stock at 3.92 and selling it at 4.25 not too long ago, how times have changed, for the worse...
The PE is remarkable but baked into that is the decreasing EPS due to the mine life. PEM Ive read is cashed up for acquisitions though.. Also, a rally in Zinc prices will help it greatly.
Another with low PE for smilarly reasons is ZFX...
Both look attractive and could bounce, or await a takeover at these low levels
tronic72
16th-January-2008, 11:06 PM
I remember buying this stock at 3.92 and selling it at 4.25 not too long ago, how times have changed, for the worse...
The PE is remarkable but baked into that is the decreasing EPS due to the mine life. PEM Ive read is cashed up for acquisitions though.. Also, a rally in Zinc prices will help it greatly.
Another with low PE for smilarly reasons is ZFX...
Both look attractive and could bounce, or await a takeover at these low levels
I agree 100%
Yet another decent stock who's price is totally oversold. at $2 this share is good value but the way the market is I won't go near it. It's not like the company isn't worth anything.
Nearly 200 Million in cash and assets, good income, at a bargain basement price. It's not like the company is failing or even in bad shape.
Maybe PEM and ZFX should merge to become a Zuper Cr@p Miner :)
DowJones
17th-January-2008, 08:34 PM
Both PEM and ZFX fell further today.
I was watching CNBC and some analysts noted that there is starting to be a lower demand on commodities and there is a stockpile on the LME. With zinc prices getting smashed recently, hopefully it wont drop too much further.
PEM seems like a good buy, but I rather fly to quality and hold big caps right now.
treefrog
22nd-January-2008, 01:22 PM
sub $1:50 as we go to press
that's about 7% divvy over the next few years IF earnings hold as forecast
still short looking for $1:00 now, or confirmation to reverse back to longs
legs
22nd-January-2008, 02:24 PM
sub $1:50 as we go to press
that's about 7% divvy over the next few years IF earnings hold as forecast
still short looking for $1:00 now, or confirmation to reverse back to longs
I have heard that they have enough cash that equals $0.75 a share...this must make this the bargain of the year??
treefrog
22nd-January-2008, 02:40 PM
I have heard that they have enough cash that equals $0.75 a share...this must make this the bargain of the year??
don't care how good it looks on the info they have told us legs, the market says <$1:50
but yes, cash assets of $147m, for 194m shares
quick ratio a very healthy 0.95 (for a miner) (BHP .65)
Freeballinginawetsuit
22nd-January-2008, 11:06 PM
don't care how good it looks on the info they have told us legs, the market says <$1:50
but yes, cash assets of $147m, for 194m shares
quick ratio a very healthy 0.95 (for a miner) (BHP .65)
You called this one right TF a few weeks back, I'm currently 20 percent in the red even after hurdling in!.
Watching closely for another double digit downer on open tomoz.
I wouldn't expose youre **** too much on this one though...... situations like this are exactly what caused the wealth gap in the first place.
Hope alls well in Broken Hill :D
xoa
23rd-January-2008, 04:20 PM
PEM rose 25 cents early (glad I sold out) then lost all its gains.
Zinc prices have been falling and I guess people are anxious about the upcoming quarterly.
treefrog
23rd-January-2008, 04:35 PM
You called this one right TF a few weeks back, I'm currently 20 percent in the red even after hurdling in!.
Watching closely for another double digit downer on open tomoz.
I wouldn't expose youre **** too much on this one though...... situations like this are exactly what caused the wealth gap in the first place.
Hope alls well in Broken Hill :D
hi freeballs,
had another look at this one and have now removed my shorts as it settled back there at the 150 level again (sitting here in just my jocks now)
the 150 level is the third and longest fib extension and I think will be hard to push down from here without first an exhaustion retrace but hell, market is nervy and anything goes
didn't do well today at all today considering others but vol not high and buters/sellers are even for now
will sit this one out until things are more indicative
Ken
23rd-January-2008, 08:43 PM
I cant honestly see a recovery for PEM.
Just my opinion but I have never seen a chart fall from 5 buxs to 1.50 and then recover in any short period of time. This could seriously take 3-5 years to recover.
In which time they would have needed to make a discovery of some sort...
Ken
24th-January-2008, 11:29 PM
PEM
10 year return on investment.
Strangley enough the 10 year return chart is still in an uptrend.
I guess you could say if you take out the volatilty.
Year on year PEM has been a solid investment.
legs
25th-January-2008, 11:52 AM
Nicely up today on what? People have obviously seen value and I agree.. With cash reserves on 75c per share and when you count the reserves they have..even though diminishing.. it has to represent value.. is there something i've missed? rumour or anything?
Ken
25th-January-2008, 08:55 PM
Nope I think the market has just had enough of seeing it get sold down.
It went from 3.00 to 1.40 in no time.
So unless you bought in the last 2 days PEM has been a shocker.
Is it a bottom, not sure.
I know there is a resource upgrade coming up.
Freeballinginawetsuit
4th-February-2008, 04:34 PM
hi freeballs,
had another look at this one and have now removed my shorts as it settled back there at the 150 level again (sitting here in just my jocks now)
the 150 level is the third and longest fib extension and I think will be hard to push down from here without first an exhaustion retrace but hell, market is nervy and anything goes
didn't do well today at all today considering others but vol not high and buters/sellers are even for now
will sit this one out until things are more indicative
Exited half my recent trades today in PEM, same with ZFX, happy with the returns.
More upside to come IMO, especially with PEM. so holding the rest for now :2twocents
tronic72
7th-February-2008, 04:07 PM
Exited half my recent trades today in PEM, same with ZFX, happy with the returns.
More upside to come IMO, especially with PEM. so holding the rest for now :2twocents
Got some PEM today at 1.6. Better return than cash sitting in the bank and that assumes the company goes nowhere in the next 12 months. Huntley's still have a target price of, wait for it.......3.55 PS. We all know that's crazy for today's market but I still feel it's undervalued. The clincher for me was that I noticed PEM had one of the highest dividend yields. See my post on finding companies with high Dividend rates.
Finally have noticed a bit of resistance recently so it should't be long before more buyers jump in.
Freeballinginawetsuit
7th-February-2008, 04:23 PM
Got some PEM today at 1.6. Better return than cash sitting in the bank and that assumes the company goes nowhere in the next 12 months. Huntley's still have a target price of, wait for it.......3.55 PS. We all know that's crazy for today's market but I still feel it's undervalued. The clincher for me was that I noticed PEM had one of the highest dividend yields. See my post on finding companies with high Dividend rates.
Finally have noticed a bit of resistance recently so it should't be long before more buyers jump in.
PEM's div yields are O.K. but I think more importantly Management needs to pull there head in and form a constructive production profile/targets for the Company over 08.
Finances arent an issue so this is not an unreasonable ask IMO.What PEM does with HER's profit and cash reserves short term is essential in the aforementioned, the market will savage them if they squander this cash position or pay some silly divy just to keep pundits happy!.
ATM I'm back to a sensible holding in PEM (over exposed myself of late). Like you Tronic, I see value in PEM and if they retest the lows again.......... I will hurdle in :2twocents
Cheers
tronic72
7th-February-2008, 05:25 PM
PEM's div yields are O.K. but I think more importantly Management needs to pull there head in and form a constructive production profile/targets for the Company over 08.
Finances arent an issue so this is not an unreasonable ask IMO.What PEM does with HER's profit and cash reserves short term is essential in the aforementioned, the market will savage them if they squander this cash position or pay some silly divy just to keep pundits happy!.
ATM I'm back to a sensible holding in PEM (over exposed myself of late). Like you Tronic, I see value in PEM and if they retest the lows again.......... I will hurdle in :2twocents
Cheers
Hey Freeballin,
The directors at PEM's agree with you 100% Have a look at their latest article entitled "Reviewing Strategic Options". See below:
5 February 2008
Reviewing Strategic Options
The Board of Perilya Limited has commenced a process of reviewing strategic options for maximizing
shareholder value. This will include a review of corporate and operational activities and should be
completed during the March quarter 2008.
The objective will be to refine the company's growth strategy to optimise the operational performance of
its existing assets and pursue merger and acquisition opportunities that may result in corporate
transactions.
The company confirms that Patrick O'Connor has been appointed Executive Chairman until completion
of the implementation phase of the strategic review and any corporate transactions.
Further announcements will be made by the company in accordance with its continuous disclosure
reporting obligations and when circumstances dictate.
I think everyone in the Market, including the directors it seems, have been waiting for PEM to have a more definitive view of where they are heading.
This review should be just the ticket and I wouldn't be surprised if the SP turns around simply on the news of this review. Maybe the turn around on Thursday was based solely on the news of the review as I've seen no other reason for the turn around
:2twocents
jonojpsg
19th-February-2008, 12:50 PM
Updated Mt Oxide resource out!! 80% increase to 200 thousand tonnes of contained copper. Sounds good, and market seems to think so too, up 18% as I write. PLeased that something is going right for me after the AED debacle :D
Ken
19th-February-2008, 04:36 PM
Up 18%....
Down 66% from its all time highs.
The frustration of going long on PEM.
Still needs to rise another 30% for me to break even.
countryboy
19th-February-2008, 07:44 PM
work is rife with rumours of something with CBH,Met a bloke from WA over to start employment down the north but has been told to sit for a while until things are clarified. I thought todays leap forward was about CBH.....:sly:
Freeballinginawetsuit
19th-February-2008, 08:05 PM
work is rife with rumours of something with CBH,Met a bloke from WA over to start employment down the north but has been told to sit for a while until things are clarified. I thought todays leap forward was about CBH.....:sly:
Going on PEM's low open today, any truth in yada/yada rumours would seem unlikly.
PEM seemed to bump along with a bit of momentum after the resource in-situ upgrade !.
Chb has been going great guns since while PEM has dropped a bit. :banghead:
countryboy
21st-February-2008, 09:53 PM
i cant see a takeover or merger, This ann will be operational. Joint crib halfway down the incline ! and share a loader or two. should have happened earlier.
Miner
21st-February-2008, 11:27 PM
EXTRACT FROM FN ARENA
Market Sentiment: 0.6
PEM - PERILYA LIMITED
Credit Suisse rates PEM as Downgrade to Underperform from Neutral - The analysts have downgraded Perilya's rating due to recent relative share price movements. In the past five days, Perilya's share price has risen 17.4% while the S&P/ASX200 has fallen 1.2%.
Perilya has released encouraging results from its Mount Oxide deposit. Although this is positive, analysts believe that earnings will drive the share price, and Credit Suisse maintains the outlook for Perilya's earnings is weak at present.
Target price is $1.70 Current Price is $1.90 Difference:($0.20) - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If PEM meets the Credit Suisse target it will return approximately - 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
The company's fiscal year ends in June. Credit Suisse forecasts a full year FY08 dividend of 3.90 cents and EPS of 15.80 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 2.06%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 11.99.
ps: i do not hold any PEM SHARE OR OPTIONS . Just for information
UMike
22nd-February-2008, 12:34 AM
i cant see a takeover or merger, This ann will be operational. Joint crib halfway down the incline ! and share a loader or two. should have happened earlier.
I agree also countryboy. Makes sense to combine the efforts in this way at Broken Hill.
Better late than never.
noirua
3rd-March-2008, 11:32 AM
Boardroom Radio report on the half year results with Mr Len Jubber, MD and CEO:
http://www.brr.com.au/event/42084
Company website: http://www.perilya.com.au
UMike
3rd-March-2008, 05:05 PM
Boardroom Radio report on the half year results with Mr Len Jubber, MD and CEO:
http://www.brr.com.au/event/42084
Company website: http://www.perilya.com.auI know these guys are experts in spin but It seems to me that the company is going way better than the sp of late indicates.
cordelia
4th-March-2008, 07:34 PM
What happened to PEM today? I still have a few of these not too many. I thought the price of zinc was stronger
Freeballinginawetsuit
5th-March-2008, 10:24 PM
Fug, owning this share is like partaking in chinese torture.
Im sure if they gave the inmates at Guantanimo the choice of being a shareholder or giving up Bin Ladens whereabouts they would opt for the latter :D.
Got a partial fill for more PEM today.......will the bottom never end :eek7:
UMike
6th-March-2008, 06:38 AM
ha ha....I totally agree with you.
I have no idea what is driving the price down Zinc, Copper and Silver have increase greatly in Price,. :banghead:
Bin Larden's in a mountain in Afgan I tells ya. :eek7:
Young Gun
6th-March-2008, 04:25 PM
Looks like a double bottom in charting analysis, anyone support my views on this one? New to this stock and havent been following it, interesting thou.
legs
6th-March-2008, 04:51 PM
Looks like a double bottom in charting analysis, anyone support my views on this one? New to this stock and havent been following it, interesting thou.
Dont know about that, looks like it tested it a a while ago and went below. But then again I dont chart too much either.
blablabla
6th-March-2008, 05:21 PM
Looks like a double bottom in charting analysis, anyone support my views on this one? New to this stock and havent been following it, interesting thou.
Looks more like a triple bottom. The timeframe of less than 2 months might be a little short for this triple bottom to be a strong reversal pattern but it is nevertheless either neutral or a reversal. A reversal will not be confirmed until the $2.00 resistance is smashed.
On fundamentals PEM might struggle to get above $2.00, but a rise to this level is possible.
treefrog
11th-March-2008, 10:18 PM
somehow methinks the attached earnings and divvies have a lot to do with it and will see price less than a $ in near future
Freeballinginawetsuit
12th-March-2008, 02:31 AM
somehow methinks the attached earnings and divvies have a lot to do with it and will see price less than a $ in near future
TF,
Comsec data isn't worth a pinch of salt, youre own cut/paste indicates how wrong they have been over past forecasts :2twocents. Who uses broker research off Comsec anyway.......!
Current market sentiment in general may indeed take PEM below a buck, are you a buyer/seller/bystander or downramper if that eventuates?
treefrog
13th-March-2008, 09:56 AM
TF,
Comsec data isn't worth a pinch of salt, youre own cut/paste indicates how wrong they have been over past forecasts :2twocents. Who uses broker research off Comsec anyway.......!
Current market sentiment in general may indeed take PEM below a buck, are you a buyer/seller/bystander or downramper if that eventuates?
freeballs
there was no comsec analyst in that composit - commsec just collate the data - those included for the PEM summary (according to commsec) were CONTRIBUTING ANALYSTS
CREDIT SUISSE - AUSTRALIA, HARTLEYS LIMITED, PATERSONS SECURITIES LIMITED, GOLDMAN SACHS JB WERE, ABN AMRO, E.L. & C. BAILLIEU STOCKBROKING LTD., MACQUARIE RESEARCH EQUITIES, UBS (sorry for the caps - copied from their footnote
I am monitoring PEM only atm - have not traded it since closing short position at 1.50
have been looking to go long but am wary of current market sentiment and apparent lack of confidence in the spin and decisions made by CEO Jubber
not convinced there is much downside left as more analysts are jumping on the buy button for PEM - but despite this the market is not interested as so many buy reccos and so few buyers
and yes I do take note of analyst reccos (for MT trades) not because I think they are right or wrong but because, like the media they are a factor in influencing buyer sentiment - their weighting I input to my decissions could be up to 1/3
cheers
BOTTOM LINE
26/2:
EW Trend: Down
Price Trend: Down
Trend Strength: Strong
Broker Consensus: Intermediate BUY
LAYMANS ANALYSIS
26/2:
VIDEO ANALYSIS (http://www.projectstreamer.com/users/reefcap/260208_pem/260208_pem.html) (1 mins 37 secs)
LAYMANS: Always the cynic that I am but here is a classic example of how and why Fundamental analysis is a dangerous sport. My philosophy is not about being right or wrong. The damage is done by staying wrong. I'm going to quote FN Arena (www.fnarena.com) which is a service that helps in my analysis of Broker consensus and cuts through the long-winded reports. Here are the valuations by Credit Suisse, a very large, global investment bank that pays its analysts top dollar:
22 October - Valuation: $5.00 Price: $3.79
28 November - Valuation: $5.00 Price $2.78
8 January - Valuation: $3.00 Price $2.20
31 January - Valuation $1.70 Price $1.88
The whole journey this Broker has suggested that PEM is a Buy. All the way down. In turn they have reduced their valuation progressively and after the price has declined. At no stage did they suggest exiting positions or protecting capital. The core difference between Technical Analysis and Fundamental Analysis is that charts offer a very strong right/wrong point where capital can be protected. Afterall, if you lose your capital, you can't participate. One of my core motto's: "I am simply a manager of bad trades". If I can look after the garbage, then the rest will look after itself.
TECHNICAL: Off my high horse. The price action after the drop through the major support at $3.50 has been nothing short of impulsive. Clean and strong. The current price action is taking the shape of a 3-wave counter trend pattern and is most likely a wave-iv. Classic texts will call this a bearish flag. Any breach through the lower side of this flag suggest continued weakness, quite possibly toward $0.50 being the lower side of the channel. Discussing such targets can be difficult, especially when looking at a chart and seeing where the stock was just a short time ago. However, reality suggests and confirmed by recent events, that stock prices can go far and wide of the mark driven by sentiment of fear and greed. PEM has had a slow tumble compared to the likes of Centro, Allco and today in ABC Learning. A slow tumble is not an over reaction though and represents a more sinister problem with the company. Until we see a base being built there is no reason to be involved with this stock on the long side.
TRADING STRATEGY
26/2:
A break of the lower flag boundary would suggest a selling opportunity but many would find this hard considering how far the stock has come. Essentially it can go to zero. There are plenty of stocks trading below $0.50 that were once high fliers. The same thing occurred back in the late-90's. All we need do is replace Resource with Technology and we're doing the same dance.
This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.
jonojpsg
13th-March-2008, 10:57 AM
Surely though their stash of cash would have to provide some sort of base below which they would be unlikely to fall, eg if they have $136m in cash and an MC of $200m then their operations are only valued at $64m.
I guess when you are talking TA though, you're right in saying that protecting capital is about reading the charts and getting out when you should. Maybe a short on PEM then?
UMike
26th-March-2008, 10:46 AM
Well they have found a takeover/merger target.
· Under the terms of the Proposed Merger, CBH shareholders will receive:
o 1 Perilya ordinary share for every 3 CBH shares;
o 1 Perilya option for every 20 CBH shares; and
o shares in Kimberley Metals, expected to be approximately 1 Kimberley Metals
share for each 9.2 CBH shares.
Will be interesting
UMike
29th-March-2008, 02:38 PM
Well they have found a takeover/merger target.
· Under the terms of the Proposed Merger, CBH shareholders will receive:
o 1 Perilya ordinary share for every 3 CBH shares;
o 1 Perilya option for every 20 CBH shares; and
o shares in Kimberley Metals, expected to be approximately 1 Kimberley Metals
share for each 9.2 CBH shares.
Will be interestingHow can I find out what Perilya options and the worth of shares in Kimberley Metals?
Any help will be appreciated.
StillStanding
3rd-April-2008, 03:28 PM
I don't think there are any shortcuts here UMike and I've been trying to work it out myself.
The value of the option can be estimated using some kind of weighted volatility based on what the resulting company will look like (I think 59% CBH, 31% PEM) and historic prices, plus I guess the best estimate of the price of the underlying would be todays PEM price. We know the expiration is Dec 2010 as well. But the implied volatility using this would probably be too high. I'm not sure how best to adjust for this in any objective way.
The value of the Kimberley portion is also a guess, but there are clues in CBH quarterlys which can give you an idea of what the tenements are worth in-situ.
Not much help I suppose but that's my two cents.
countryboy
3rd-April-2008, 08:46 PM
interesting story unfolding at the southern end of the line of load. 15km out to be exact .Private company Pinnacles resources have just announced a jorc compliant resource from just 35% of their mine lease.Exact figures I'll post when i get the paper back from my wife !
ongoing stories about PEM chasing this area which could still eventuate. Pinnacles are developing the open cut mine from their own capital but surely don't have the resources to go the whole way. At some stage they will require the help of a company with access to capital.
more to come on this
treefrog
5th-April-2008, 03:00 PM
Aspect "Perilya (PEM) and CBH Resources (CBH) will finally merge. Broken Hill will have unified ownership for the first time. The merger is all scrip, via scheme of arrangement. It’s conditional on an independent expert concluding the merger is in the best interests of CBH shareholders and a CBH shareholder vote. PEM will offer 1 share for every 3 CBH shares – a generous deal for CBH. Only six months ago PEM traded at over six times CBH. CBH shareholders also receive 1 free $2.00 PEM option for every 20 CBH shares, expiring December 2010. PEM will own 41% of the combined entity and CBH 59%. Merger documentation is expected in early April with the vote and final court approval set for July. Prior to the merger, CBH will spin out ‘non-core’ exploration assets into Kimberly Metals. Shareholders will get a Kimberly share for every 9.2 CBH.
A merger has long made sense, though the terms are somewhat surprising. A 50/50 split seems fair but CBH extracted a premium, suggesting PEM’s Broken Hill mine is struggling more than was already known. PEM shareholders are paying the price for management taking its eyes off the core business. This has seen a lukewarm response from PEM analysts and the media. Regardless, it’s a better than average corporate deal. Significant value will be created and it makes sense for both sides. New Rasp ore will help reduce reliance on PEM’s troubled Southern Mine and fill the Broken Hill mill.
We reaffirm our Buy recommendations on both stocks individually and preferably with the merger to proceed, looking for a recovery in the zinc price, cost savings from Broken Hill and Endeavor and growth from Panorama. High cash costs make both companies unsuitable for conservative investors. The zinc price is close to the marginal cost of production and some miners are hurting. On that basis, there is potential for substantial uplift in earnings and valuations but a prolonged zinc price depression would threaten the business. The conservative combined balance sheet provides some protection and we don’t expect zinc to fall out of bed. Nevertheless that risk must be acknowledged. This deal makes the most sense for both companies and its unlikely a competing offer will come forward. The more probable play would be a takeover after the merger, though significant progress would need to be made on cost savings first.
Our combined valuation is $1.95 a share for PEM and 68c for CBH, conservatively assuming no synergies from the merger. Broken Hill has deteriorated for PEM due to a number of production issues. The merger should help solve the problems, with real benefits from FY10 onwards. Forecast FY08 and FY09 output is reduced while cash costs and depreciation estimates rise. We now expect FY08 Broken Hill production of 89kt zinc and 54kt lead at a cash cost of US$0.93c/lb, down from previous guidance of 95kt-105kt zinc at US$0.80c/lb. A strong improvement was expected in FY09 but that now looks unlikely and we downgrade to 100kt zinc. Our CBH valuation is slightly higher than the PEM merger implies as CBH is pre the spinout of Kimberley Metals. We assign a nominal $25m to Kimberley Metals. Long term assumptions for both companies remain US$0.90/lb zinc, US$0.70/lb lead, an A$/US$ exchange rate of 0.80 and a 10% discount rate. Forecast combined EPS is 1.5c in FY08 and 14.7c in FY09 per PEM share which equates to 0.5c and 4.9c per CBH share respectively.
The deal is unanimously recommended by CBH’s board and largest shareholder Toho Zinc. PEM’s chairman Patrick O’Connor will chair the combined group while CBH’s CEO Stephen Dennis will become Managing Director. Current PEM MD Len Jubber has retired effective immediately. The board will include four PEM and three CBH directors. PEM is bringing a strong balance sheet while CBH brings a better pipeline of exploration and development opportunities.
Close to $200m in operating and capital cost savings should come from Broken Hill by FY11. Use of PEM’s spare capacity will avoid $70m to build a separate mill for the Rasp mine. CBH will not need to recruit a separate new workforce. Rasp production will be brought forward to June 2009, dependent on receipt of government permits by October 2008. Some high grade ore on the lease boundaries will be accessible for a modest near term production uplift. Post FY11, expect ongoing operating cost savings of at least $30m a year. Potential for additional savings will be explored with more likely to be found. PEM previously indicated a US20c/lb zinc cash cost saving from running its Broken Hill mill at full capacity. This suggests operating cost savings closer to $50m a year.
The combined group will be capped at around $500m. The balance sheet will be strong with $313m cash and $243m debt, most of which is convertible notes which will convert. Proforma 2007 production was 220kt of zinc and 72kt of lead. Diversification will reduce operating risk with ore sourced from five mines. The merged group will have a reasonable pipeline of exploration and development options. Combined group resources and reserves are 10.3Mt and 4.1Mt of zinc equivalent respectively.
*Combined sensitivities per PEM share. For sensitivities per CBH share, divide by three."
emphasis mine - a fighting chance now for PEM with spin merchant gone
Plasmo
5th-April-2008, 03:26 PM
ha ha....I totally agree with you.
I have no idea what is driving the price down Zinc, Copper and Silver have increase greatly in Price,. :banghead:
Bin Larden's in a mountain in Afgan I tells ya. :eek7:
Uh, Chinese ramping up Zinc production and becoming a net exporter rather than importer might have something to do with it? Anyone considering investing in Zinc would be wise to take note of that.
countryboy
7th-April-2008, 10:03 PM
my understanding is that CBH initiated the deal with PEM. PEM have really been directionless as to its future apart from a short lived play at Heron.
My two cents worth is this project just 15km out of Broken Hill Pinnacles Mines: released a jorc statement of 400,000 tones lead,51 million ounces of silver, 575,000 tonnes of zinc, 12,000 tonnes of copper and 210,000 ounces of gold This was achieved off just 35% of the lease being drilled. geo Tim Hopwood put an estimate of 30 to 60 million tonnes on the resource.
This company is a private entity and will need some capital to mine this area.
get out the wallet PEM !:2twocents
countryboy
27th-April-2008, 11:08 PM
Production out of Broken Hill increased by 22% for lead 22,000 tonnes and six percent Zinc: 13200 tonnes in the last quarter. Target for full year is 90,000 tonnes of zinc and 55,000 tones of lead.
Decreasing zinc price (and it has not tanked!) is offset by increased lead price.
countryboy
30th-April-2008, 04:58 PM
60% upgrade of Flying Doctor Resource to 104,600 tonnes of contained zinc and lead.
Perilya Limited (ASX: PEM) is pleased to announce a 60% increase in the mineral resource estimate for the Flying Doctor lead and zinc deposit to 1,450,000 tonnes @ 3.2% zinc, 4.0% lead and 44g/t of silver. Flying Doctor is located approximately five kilometers north of company’s Broken Hill Southern Operations and two kilometers north of the Northern Operations.
looks like an open pit to 200m depth
plenty more ore to pul out of Broken Hill:D
doogie_goes_off
30th-April-2008, 05:55 PM
Looks like i'll be back in black before you know it. PEM is the sleeping giant IMHO. I am holding on with white knuckles incase the ride starts (also grinding my teeth incase they fall more)
GREENS
30th-May-2008, 11:21 AM
Have to say Perilya is not looking to crash hot at the moment with zinc and lead prices taking a beating. In the last quarter out of memory I think they had an operating cash cost of $US0.94/lb for zinc. No wonder they had no choice but to merge with CBH and there share price is where it is at the moment. Anyone know how long until CBH’s (Broken Hill) CML mine starts production and feeding its ore into PEMs broken hill concentrator? As this should cause costs to decline significantly from their current levels.
countryboy
4th-June-2008, 11:52 PM
Queensland, 100 per cent ownership, Copper
An 80% increase (announced on 28 February 2008) in the Mount Oxide mineral resource estimate to 203,000 tonnes of contained copper, together with the majority Indicated status of the resource, strengthens the project’s potential for development in the current strong copper market.
Mount Oxide has considerable potential as a low cost near term development project. Mount Oxide is located in a proven mineralised system in the highly prospective Mount Isa region and is part of Perilya’s 720 square kilometre tenement holding in this area. It is close to existing infrastructure.
Within the project area, Mount Oxide mine produced 51,000 tonnes of secondary copper ore at a grade of 21 per cent copper from an underground mining operation to a depth of 90 metres below surface, prior to 1958. Between 1968 and 1971, an unknown quantity of ore was also extracted from an open pit at the mine.
The potential of the deposit was proven by previous shallow open cut mining and the resource is open at depth. Mount Oxide is located 25 kilometres from an under-utilised processing facility and close to a major mining service town.
drilling was to start in April 08
had to post something positive about this stock as it continues to drop
Synergy
5th-June-2008, 11:05 AM
Relief perhaps in sight for you countryboy, some nice drill results released today:
Perilya Limited (ASX: PEM) is pleased to announce spectacular drill intercepts at depth below the main Mount Oxide
resource, including:
- 22m @ 6.3 % Copper and 0.3 % Cobalt from 258m;
- 19m @ 3.7 % Copper from 315m;
- 31m @ 6.2 % Copper from 346m; and
- 23m @ 8.9 % Copper from 395m.
The high grade intercepts occur in one hole between 258m and 418m downhole.
Perilya’s Executive Chairman, Patrick O’Connor, said that the intercepts highlight Mt Oxide’s upside potential for expansion.
“These intercepts are outside of the current resource and have significant prospects at depth.”
“The results are particularly encouraging for either defining a high grade underground resource or deepening the planned open pit,” he said.
Drilling commenced in April with two diamond rigs to infill and expand the current resource of 203,000 tonnes of copper
and to define the potential of the project.
Interesting to see what effect they have on a stock in such a heavy downtrend...
countryboy
5th-June-2008, 12:55 PM
i sold on todays small rise....massive loss
will look to buy into CBH at around 20c close to the merger date
cancelled a stop loss at around $3.40:banghead:
cordelia
5th-June-2008, 05:30 PM
i sold on todays small rise....massive loss
will look to buy into CBH at around 20c close to the merger date
cancelled a stop loss at around $3.40:banghead:
I bought these at 3.40....sold at 1.92....I lost heaps too
This was the biggest loss I have ever had. Taught me a real lesson about entry and exits. I know its hard but try and learn from the experience. I know exactly what I did wrong which is something positive:-)
BAM
5th-June-2008, 09:36 PM
Hi
Does anyone have any new thoughts on PEM?
Closed down again. How do people think the merger will affect the stock?
Released positive drilling results today, any thoughts?
Can you see a recovery in the mid-term? :confused:
Max_ob
5th-June-2008, 10:07 PM
i bought at $1.03 and am still holding at a close of .68 after a good announcement . . . . :eek7:
am slowly learning about stop losses myself. . . .
merger hopefully be finished off soon and then maybe it will crawl back . . . maybe bottom draw it as i've heard other people say. . .
aramis
10th-June-2008, 11:13 PM
I bought in at 0.93 and am holding.
I dont really know why the share price is still falling, this company has too many positives. Zinc prices are falling true, but these guys have plenty of cash in the bank, so if zinc falls and smelters get closed down, that in itself will cause zinc prices to go back up (as supply will decrease) and as such, Perilya will be in a good position to sell at a higher price. Due to cash @ bank being so high, I doubt they will close anything.
Secondly, I suspect (mere speculation) that short-sellers are to blame for the share price falling so heavily... That is, people selling (by borrowing from an institution for example) at the start of the day and this in itself causing the price to fall and then buying towards the end of trade or once it has fallen enough for a profit.
I also suspect that many people have made losses on this stock so many people are crystalising their losses (i.e. selling the stock and then re-buying perhaps now or perhaps a bit later so see if it falls even more) before the end of the financial year in order to reap the tax advantages associated...
Overall, I think that the price of the stock right now is really good, and if I didnt get in at .93, I would have been buying much more of this right now. Its not about whether it will get back up, its about when.
As for people selling right now, why bother sell now? can it honestly get any worse? As some of the people already here mentioned, they got enough money in the bank, plus stockpiles of zinc, plus they are merging hopefully soon ... all these easily equate to a much higher share price than what it currently is at.
My feeling is, when this stock starts going back up (and I feel it will probably be July as soon as financial year has ended), it will start climbing fast as it appears to be undervalued for the above mentioned reasons.
Anyone think otherwise? give me your reasons and I'll be happy to discuss :p:
Stan 101
10th-June-2008, 11:47 PM
The issues with PEM are starting to compound now. Zinc is under $1US and is just about levelling with the cost to PEM to pull it out of the ground. Sure there are other metals pulled out of the tailings but for a basic, it's one for one. Lead is in the same boat.
At the point where there is such a price parity a business starts to dip into reserves.
The CBH merger is not a given. It is now trading at a premium to PEM. Who would want to vote to lower their share price? The answer may be n the synergies and savings by sharing overheads, getting the Rasp up and running at least 12 months earlier and a potential takeover bid with the new entity.
CBH's operating costs are not that much better than PEM and I cannot recall seeing any projected operating costs of the new entity.
People may be selling down PEM simply due to margin call. Remember this thing has been in basically freefall for nearly 12 months along with Zinc prices. I too thought it had bottomed at $1 but it sure proved me wrong and burnt me a bit. I jumped out at my loose stop loss.
The word Perilya is looked upon like a deviant term at the moment.
I've just looked at NAB margin and PEM and CBH is still at 60% leverage. That is a positive. Agius(?) still have a 12 month view of PEM to have them trading at $2.01 as of late may.
Zinc needs to bottom and start that long climb back before this share can really look like stabilizing.
Yes I think there is a future and why I held CBH and often traded it. Time will tell.
They could do worse than get a name change, a good publicist and an operations management audit. They need to get their costs down and turn this around. They also need to let people know of the change. A shakedown of the management team would be a bonus, too. No matter how they have really performed, there is a certain stench on them all in bourse circles.
Cheers,
Miner
11th-June-2008, 12:26 AM
The issues with PEM are starting to compound now. Zinc is under $1US and is just about levelling with the cost to PEM to pull it out of the ground. Sure there are other metals pulled out of the tailings but for a basic, it's one for one. Lead is in the same boat.
At the point where there is such a price parity a business starts to dip into reserves.
The CBH merger is not a given. It is now trading at a premium to PEM. Who would want to vote to lower their share price? The answer may be n the synergies and savings by sharing overheads, getting the Rasp up and running at least 12 months earlier and a potential takeover bid with the new entity.
CBH's operating costs are not that much better than PEM and I cannot recall seeing any projected operating costs of the new entity.
People may be selling down PEM simply due to margin call. Remember this thing has been in basically freefall for nearly 12 months along with Zinc prices. I too thought it had bottomed at $1 but it sure proved me wrong and burnt me a bit. I jumped out at my loose stop loss.
The word Perilya is looked upon like a deviant term at the moment.
I've just looked at NAB margin and PEM and CBH is still at 60% leverage. That is a positive. Agius(?) still have a 12 month view of PEM to have them trading at $2.01 as of late may.Zinc needs to bottom and start that long climb back before this share can really look like stabilizing.
Yes I think there is a future and why I held CBH and often traded it. Time will tell.
They could do worse than get a name change, a good publicist and an operations management audit. They need to get their costs down and turn this around. They also need to let people know of the change. A shakedown of the management team would be a bonus, too. No matter how they have really performed, there is a certain stench on them all in bourse circles.
Cheers,
Stan 101
Good thoughts and thanks
Question is who is going to convey PEM about what you suggested as they shoudl do etc. If they were smart enough to research and learn then our postings were not necessary and there was all green around PEM and CBH
If you refer to my old postings when I did say that CBH management is an incompetent ones and they have just made a good growth prospect into a sickening farce.
Probably CBH management shoud join with ABS Eddie and Bryerty Director to make a sick company and ask MK to be its chariman to make the full circle of incompetency
Sorry for frustration as in a rising resource market investors are just loosing money for their faiths being shattered by such unworthy management of PEM and CBH
Stan 101
11th-June-2008, 08:33 AM
Sorry for frustration as in a rising resource market investors are just loosing money for their faiths being shattered by such unworthy management of PEM and CBH
Are we really in a resource market that is rising? Can you give me some examples of this? The only commodity I've noticed (and I've not looked that hard) with a demand outstripping supply scenario is iron ore.
Cheers,
Miner
11th-June-2008, 10:09 AM
as reported in FN Arena today (11 June)
Macqquarie rates PEM as neutral . An increase in cost assumptons has led the broker to downgrade both PEM and CVH and the target for PEM falls from $2 to $1.
Disclaimer : I do not hold PEM
oldblue
11th-June-2008, 10:41 AM
As at 31 March 2008 PEM had $85.5m cash, 43cps, or 29cps net after debt of $28.2m. I wonder how quickly this is being spent?
The other question that exercises my mind is their hedging position. They had hedged a quantity of zinc forward in the 2008 financial year but not much further out. Seems to be a fair bit of lead sold forward. Does anyone have a handle on this and what the financial effect ( benefit) could be in the current year?
Disc: Don't hold but very nearly bought around $1, and still interested.
Max_ob
11th-June-2008, 10:54 AM
lucky you. . . . i did buy in at $1.03 :banghead:
and silly enough to still hold. . . .and not confident enough to average down right now
kkyyoo
11th-June-2008, 01:00 PM
it hits 0.55 today...
Bought it at $1 and still holding it
Hoping for some miracle to happen after the merger is done and the metal prices picking up as the OPEC meeting is being held to increase oil production to tackle the rising oil prices (which indirectly affect the metal prices )
not prepared to lose half of my money.... :banghead:
anyone has any idea what the hell is going on ? is it gonna go down again :confused: ?
aramis
11th-June-2008, 01:22 PM
lol, I got in at.93 and now .545.
errrrrmmmm, I am not prepared to sell now either, lol, just imagine how the people who bought at $5 and still holding freel? :banghead:
Upside is, they got plenty of cash, low debt, they own a mine and a lot of equipment, they are proposing a merger... and the stock is pretty cheap right now so I suspect institutional investors will be in as soon as financial year end.
I agree on poor management though... when share prices are going down dramatically on a regular basis, when there is nothing actually changing in the company, then it is important for management to express their opinions to the market and assure the market that nothing is going on, business as usual. This can be through a market announcement or media interview. However, both PEM and CBH management have totally lacked any initiative in this department. Very disappointing...
Overall, I think I might wait a bit, see if it goes down any more, and if so, buy up and sell in the middle somewhere to break even or make a bit.. we'll see/.
aramis
12th-June-2008, 10:16 AM
Looks like PEM is back on its way up...
Strong BUY depth compared to sell...
Opened higher currently at .595.
People finally realise this is going back up... My prediction (speculation only) 0.75 by end of the month.
WOOT GO PEM GO!!!
P.s. I got in at 0.93 and .545
:D
oldblue
12th-June-2008, 10:23 AM
As at 31 March 2008 PEM had $85.5m cash, 43cps, or 29cps net after debt of $28.2m. I wonder how quickly this is being spent?
The other question that exercises my mind is their hedging position. They had hedged a quantity of zinc forward in the 2008 financial year but not much further out. Seems to be a fair bit of lead sold forward. Does anyone have a handle on this and what the financial effect ( benefit) could be in the current year?
Disc: Don't hold but very nearly bought around $1, and still interested.
Good to see a bit of strength in the SP on a down day.
Still searching for the answers to these questions.
Any takers?
:confused:
kkyyoo
12th-June-2008, 02:31 PM
Todays up because of the announcement of the Flaunders mine as a new resource
And yea, a really strong buys too.. compared to yesterday
Hopefully its going back up now
Miner
12th-June-2008, 10:38 PM
Stan 101
Good thoughts and thanks
If you refer to my old postings when I did say that CBH management is an incompetent ones and they have just made a good growth prospect into a sickening farce.
Probably CBH management shoud join with ABS Eddie and Bryerty Director to make a sick company and ask MK to be its chariman to make the full circle of incompetency
Sorry for frustration as in a rising resource market investors are just loosing money for their faiths being shattered by such unworthy management of PEM and CBH
At last CBH management read our stories and here u go
See the attachment of management changed and Stephen Dennis stepped into
aramis
13th-June-2008, 09:28 PM
Ahhh, whats with this stock!!!
I'm out of this one. I just dont get it, had two positive announcements and still didnt really recover. Plus the buys are starting to disappear again...
Hmmm, probably has something to do with the price of zinc... I guess it is going to take a bit of time before production of zinc slows down and accordingly, the price after that goes back up... even then, as one of the other guys here mentioned, you have to question how quick their cash in the bank is being spent...
dunno... anyways, will always keep an eye out for this stock.
What do u guys reakon btw... the commodity "boom" is coming to an end?
kkyyoo
14th-June-2008, 07:22 PM
Completely clueless about this one
CBH changed management
2 positive announcements
merger is going to take place
this share should go up rapidly ... or not ? or theres some people on the back stage playing with the share price ?:confused:
GREENS
19th-June-2008, 11:28 PM
As at 31 March 2008 PEM had $85.5m cash, 43cps, or 29cps net after debt of $28.2m. I wonder how quickly this is being spent?
The other question that exercises my mind is their hedging position. They had hedged a quantity of zinc forward in the 2008 financial year but not much further out. Seems to be a fair bit of lead sold forward. Does anyone have a handle on this and what the financial effect ( benefit) could be in the current year?
Disc: Don't hold but very nearly bought around $1, and still interested.
Old Blue
All of Perilya’s hedging is on page 7 of their latest quarterly report. You can work out then based on a current zinc price what the benefit or loss will be for each contract.
http://www.perilya.com.au/articles/quarterly-activities-report-for-the-three-months-ended-31-march-2008/Quarterly_Activities_Report_for_the_3_months_ended _31_March_2008.pdf
In terms of how quickly there going through their cash. I would say they are going through it a lot quicker than shareholders would like. At a Zinc price of 0.85/lb they must surely be operating at a loss now. There cash costs for the last quarter were around $0.94/lb of zinc.
I think the only relief for shareholders in PEM and CBH is a merger and in turn a greater focus on operating efficiencies, particularly in the broken hill region. That is getting more ore through the broken hill concentrator to bring cash costs back down and therefore attempting to make the broken hill operations more profitable. Also bringing on line the lower cost Panorama Zn-Cu and Mount Oxide Cu project as well as exploiting the high grade Beltana style deposits is a major stepping stone for rebuilding the merged entity towards a lower cost producer and a more successful and sustainably profitable company going forward. There are a few bright spots for the merged entity in the longer term, but management must first show their ability to run the company near its potential before investors will jump back on.
kray192
20th-June-2008, 09:46 AM
Does anyone know if PEM uses LME or SHFE prices. SHFE prices are 10-20% above LME, so PEM could still operate at a profit under SHFE prices.
kkyyoo
20th-June-2008, 06:49 PM
Went into trading halt today
so do CBH ...
I wonder if it got something to do with the merger ?
(I thought they are supposed to be merged at early July )
legs
24th-June-2008, 04:05 PM
Went into trading halt today
so do CBH ...
I wonder if it got something to do with the merger ?
(I thought they are supposed to be merged at early July )
announcement:
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080624/pdf/319smsytd8h9xq.pdf
PEM rejects merger even after a newer offer of 3.5 cbh shares for each PEM share compared to original 1 for 3 shares!
2 more new announcements...
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080624/pdf/319smrgt5yb6sp.pdf
http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080624/pdf/319smnkn5ghpzw.pdf
PEM concerned on changes made at CBH operations since merger talks started and hedge books with CBH. Metal prices have tumbled and effect on CBH reserves and operations the major concern.
trevormc
28th-June-2008, 10:55 PM
The power of zinc: Startup CEO talks zinc-based fuel cells
Washington (Platts)--26Jun2008
Robust supply and softer demand has transformed zinc from a hot to a
lukewarm commodity, but new technology that would make zinc the power running
cell phones and laptops -- and a significant distance down the road -- a fuel
source in hybrid cars, could help launch the base metal's comeback.
Power Air Corp., based in Livermore, California, announced this week it
had entered into a technology-sharing deal with Hawthorne, New Jersey-based
eVionyx to make zinc-based battery units called Powerpacks, that will give
extended-run capability to increasingly sophisticated -- and power-hungry --
mobile electronic devices like Blackberrys, MP3 players, and global
positioning systems.
"People don't know that zinc is a potential energy source," Power Air
President and CEO Donald Ceci, told Platts. "Eventually, if the world was
running on zinc, you'd have sustainable fuel." But, he added, "There's a lot
of development work to be done."
The technology is known as the zinc-air fuel cell, which gets its name
from the underlying chemical reaction that occurs when zinc pellets are mixed
with oxygen from the air, causing zinc oxidation. Lithium is the material
currently used in the batteries powering mobile electronic devices, but
deposits of the commodity are more scattered and scarce than zinc, and
increasingly pricey in the face of insatiable demand for the next big thing in
electronics, Ceci said.
"There's not that much lithium; you get it from salt lakes on the tops of
mountains in Chile and China." While those are not the only regions where the
material is found, he said, "There's certainly not enough to run the world's
hybrid electric vehicles." What's more, Ceci added, "Lithium is getting more
and more expensive because all the portable devices are running on lithium. So
zinc is developing into the next-generation alternative to lithium. We're
pioneering that to an extent."
Although the current crop of hybrid vehicles have fuel cells based on
lithium or hydrogen, the zinc-air fuel cell is safer and better for the
environment, he said. "The nice thing about zinc is, it's nonflammable and
nonexplosive and you end up with zinc oxide as a byproduct, which is totally
recyclable. You don't burn anything up into the atmosphere [so] there's no
emissions." Also, "of all the stable elements, zinc has the highest energy
density, so it is a very good power source," Ceci said.
These qualities could raise the base metal's profile as a fuel source and
drive up its price on the order of metallurgic coal -- the coal used to make
steel -- the price of which has soared on rocketing steel demand from China.
"Broadly speaking, I think this is a trend that going to grow not only in
North America and Europe, but around the world," Bart Melek, a commodities
analyst with BMO Capital Markets, told Platts. "Certainly with oil at
$135-138/barrel, we're going have to use other ways [to get power]."
--Laura Gilcrest, laura_gilcrest@platts.com
kkyyoo
1st-August-2008, 03:40 PM
so it looks like the company is going no where now ...
Any ideas what is going on ?
they already officially terminated their merger with CBH...
From their last quarter report
• Metal production at Broken Hill increased 18.5% on the previous quarter
• Full year production from Broken Hill of 91,295 t of contained zinc and 52,412 t of contained lead
• Significant exploration results at Broken Hill and Mount Oxide and an increase in mineral resources
• The value of Perilya’s projects and assets is receiving interest from a number of parties
• Reverse takeover proposal from CBH Resources rejected as inadequate
at least they are taking profits this qtr compared to prev qtr
June qtr profit = 0.03 US$ /lb zinc
Mar qtr loss = (0.12) US$ /lb zinc
A strong focus on cost control and higher production volumes resulted in the direct cash operating cost reducing by 13% to
US$0.96/lb during the quarter, resulting in an improved cash operating margin.
aramis
6th-August-2008, 03:46 PM
This stock is starting to look good again...
0.35 and I'll be in. Word on the street is that zinc will be up 2009 as many companies have reduced production and steel requires zinc in some sectors? anyways, article I found...
lol, I feel sorry for the ppl who bought at $5 if they are still holding this one.
:2twocents
treefrog
12th-August-2008, 10:24 PM
may still have a bit to go on current fundamentals, but 40c is strong LT support line (if you have a bent for LT S/R lines.........and cash on hand is 39c/share; today PEM at 44.5c
PEM made +3c profit/lb (after belt tightening) on an ave Zn price of 96c for the 1/4
Today Zn down to 75c/lb
PEM took over from Pasminco who morphed into Zinifex who morphed into OZL - (OXL and ZFX)
Interesting chart comparison over the last 5 years
treefrog
21st-August-2008, 10:05 AM
local rumor (very sketchy though), is that currently management meeting with workers and offering 435 redundancies - appears to be the total workforce here
repeat very unconfirmed
kennas
21st-August-2008, 10:10 AM
local rumor (very sketchy though), is that currently management meeting with workers and offering 435 redundancies - appears to be the total workforce here
repeat very unconfirmed:eek: Crikey! Could PEM and CBH both be put into mothballs until their commods recover?
It's a bit early to be picking up rumours from down the pub treefrog!
Is a mining town I suppose...
Speewha
21st-August-2008, 12:42 PM
Hello
This morning’s Fin Review
“Perilya broke the news at a shift change last night that workforce of 750 would be reduced by about 450 “.
Regards
prawn_86
21st-August-2008, 12:53 PM
Yes this news was also on the ABC's Madday report.
PEM said they will re start operations when the Zinc price recovers sufficiently
UMike
21st-August-2008, 03:19 PM
:eek: Crikey! Could PEM and CBH both be put into mothballs until their commods recover?
It's a bit early to be picking up rumours from down the pub treefrog!
Is a mining town I suppose...
Not exactly Mothballs.
"A resizing of the Broken Hill Operation to focus on a reduced tonnage, lower cost
operation at the Southern Operations. The North Mine and Potosi exploration decline will be placed on care and
maintenance." is a quote from there recent ANN.
doogie_goes_off
27th-August-2008, 12:19 PM
Strength coming back into the cobalt price should see PEM tick up on the back of Mt Oxide...
"New York (Platts)--25Aug2008
Cobalt prices have bounced sharply as a result of traders buying around
100 mt of cobalt from BHP Billiton in the space of just four working days,
with prices of transactions climbing by more than $5/lb since last Thursday":2twocents
legs
12th-September-2008, 03:49 PM
got a rocket in its butt today...up 56% so far 10 minutes before close. Obviously traders liked the spin off of Mt Oxide and acquisition of purchase of 200m shares in Chalice.
Not before its time though.
Hendrik
12th-September-2008, 04:32 PM
got a rocket in its butt today...up 56% so far 10 minutes before close. Obviously traders liked the spin off of Mt Oxide and acquisition of purchase of 200m shares in Chalice.
Not before its time though.
It was heavily oversold in recent months, this week was a real downer for it pushing it below 52 week lows and support, so anyone who scalped this one today, well done
fighting41
12th-September-2008, 08:18 PM
I got on Perilya when it went to $0.40 and yesterday was watching my portfolio at 3.25pm when it colapsed from $0.32ish to around the $0.17.
After wasting a minute trying to work out what had happened and why, I was able to get on again at $0.19
I was cheering when it was up 70% at one stage today.
Sept. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Perilya Ltd., an Australian zinc and lead producer, rose the most in 17 years in Sydney trading after Credit Suisse Group boosted the company's rating, saying the stock is ``well below'' its value.
Perilya jumped 61 percent to 33 cents on the Australian stock exchange, making it the benchmark index's biggest gainer. Perilya has lost more than 88 percent of its market value this year.
Credit Suisse upgraded the stock to ``outperform'' from ``neutral'' in a note released today, saying the net recoverable cash on Perilya's balance sheet and its bonds were worth A$67.4 million compared with its market valuation yesterday of A$40 million. The rise in Perilya's share price today has taken its market value to A$65 million.
``We see this stock as too cheap'' given Perilya does not pose a solvency risk, the note said.
Date: 12/9/2008
Author: Jamie Freed
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 21
Investors have again been disappointed by Australian zinc miner, Perilya. It hashad a difficult year in 2008, with falling zinc prices, a failed merger,redundancies, write-downs and poor results, with its share price falling from apeak of $A4.42 in November 2007. Perilya sold its Mount oxide copper project inQueensland to Chalice Gold Mines for $A25 million on 11 September 2008. However,the fact that the transaction was for scrip, not cash, caused its share price tofall by $A0.115 to $A0.205
thx
MS
legs
12th-September-2008, 11:19 PM
"Date: 12/9/2008
Author: Jamie Freed
Source: The Sydney Morning Herald --- Page: 21
Investors have again been disappointed by Australian zinc miner, Perilya. It hashad a difficult year in 2008, with falling zinc prices, a failed merger,redundancies, write-downs and poor results, with its share price falling from apeak of $A4.42 in November 2007. Perilya sold its Mount oxide copper project inQueensland to Chalice Gold Mines for $A25 million on 11 September 2008. However,the fact that the transaction was for scrip, not cash, caused its share price tofall by $A0.115 to $A0.205"
Thats old news as it didnt fall today...it went up 61%.
The fall was from the day before. It rebounded very strongly today.
oremo
10th-March-2009, 06:23 PM
I'm holding 100,000 shares at average cost 27 cents..
I kept buying in at what i thought was the bottom.
I know...some say that's dumb.
Seemed simple at the time...
buy when everyone else was getting out
Zinc stockpiles will be consumed & create demand...eventually...
Am I any chance of recouping?
Appreciate some feedback
Oremo the newbie
UMike
11th-March-2009, 11:56 PM
I'm holding 100,000 shares at average cost 27 cents..
I kept buying in at what i thought was the bottom.
I know...some say that's dumb.
Seemed simple at the time...
buy when everyone else was getting out
Zinc stockpiles will be consumed & create demand...eventually...
Am I any chance of recouping?
Appreciate some feedback
Oremo the newbieIf "Zhongjin Lingnan" aquired 50.1% of PEM for $0.23 we have buckleys of seeing $0.27 anytime soon.
That they didn't merge with CBH astounds me.
Life goes on.
oremo
12th-March-2009, 06:24 PM
The "Zhongjin Lingnan" aquisition (50.1%) for PEM for $0.23 was interesting.
At least they value PEM at $0.23 in the current market conditions which indicates that it's good long value at the moment. Only needs a bit of demand to send the price up.
They are obviously thinking long.
News out of China points to stockpiles slowly running out.
Feel a bit of confidence coming back
Anyone out there got some concrete info?
Life goes on and on and on.........:walker::walker::walker:
oremo
14th-April-2009, 10:52 PM
Knew PEM would go up. Hit up to 29 cents today and settled back to finish up at 27.5 cents. Up 8 cents on the day. Not bragging just relieved and happy to go square. What will happen tomorrow? Dow futures look good for tonight.
Seems China is either stockpiling Zinc at cheap prices or their consumption is growing. Lots of good news out of China in general.
Holding 77,000 shares and am up by $850
Tempted to bail out but going to sleep on it. Anyone care to comment on where this stock is or sector is going?
:confused:
