ALL - Aristocrat Leisure

[GreatPig]

Aristocrat Leisure has jumped up this morning. Currently Yahoo is showing it as up 71 cents, or about 13%.

It was going nicely for me already, but this is a surprise bonus if it can hold the gain :).

Cheers,
GP

[GreatPig]

It's now up by more than 20%. Can it hold the price at the end of the day?

GP

[keepitreal]

Its charging like a champion..

got some contracts in philipines..

trying to tap into the china market.. if it secures that some big profits,. they would love poker machines.

great technicals..

lots of good write ups in the media and have been picked as a great long term stock.

[GreatPig]

What happened here?

Wasn't very pretty on my call warrant. Probably should have sold it yesterday I guess.

Cheers,
GP

[GreatPig]

Now, just to add salt to the wound, after selling the warrant at a significant loss, the price has recovered and just touched $13 today.

Seems to be the story of my life of late... :(

GP

[imaginator]

anyone shorting ALL now?
It went from 14 down to 13.74 in just a few days. When All Ords up, it still got stuck around 13.9, with more tendency of falling down sharply.

[swingstar]

The larger scale trend seems to be up to me, and it's been trading sideways for a few weeks--just a pullback?

[imaginator]

swingstar,
thanks, however i think ALL may be in play by someone, as volume is too low. Luckily today I sold at 13.55, having bought at 13.9 few days ago.

do u think it's good time to short ORG (Origin Energy) now? I love ORG for shorting.

Is that a MACD line that u always use for your analysis.

[swingstar]

swingstar,
thanks, however i think ALL may be in play by someone, as volume is too low. Luckily today I sold at 13.55, having bought at 13.9 few days ago.

do u think it's good time to short ORG (Origin Energy) now? I love ORG for shorting.

Is that a MACD line that u always use for your analysis.

Not sure about ORG... personally I don't see any trades, but you might with your system.

I only use one indicator: RSI divergence (http://stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/indic_RSI.html). It's important to know what it's signifying and when it may be useful if you wish to use it.

[imaginator]

why did ALL went up today? volume is so low less than 200,000. I think some bastards inside are playing it. Maybe its a good time to short it down!

[stockpile]

Came across this article this morning, fantastic honours for Aristocrat could further enhance companies reputation.


Aristocrat Scores Three Top 20 Wins in Casino Journal's Annual Top 20 Most Innovative Technologies Review

Company Honored for DL Technology(TM), OASIS(TM) FloorLogix(TM) and SpeedMedia Director

LAS VEGAS, April 24 /PRNewswire/ -- Aristocrat Technologies Inc. has
been honored three times in Casino Journal's annual "Top 20 Most Innovative
Technologies" review. Scoring places in the Top 20 are Aristocrat's DL
Technology(TM), OASIS(TM) FloorLogix(TM) and SpeedMedia Director.
"We are thrilled and honored with these acknowledgements," said
Aristocrat President Tim Parrott. "The Casino Journal Top 20 has long been
considered one of the industry's most prestigious honors, and Aristocrat
has long been known as a technological innovator, so it's appropriate to
find three of our products in a very short list."

DL Technology(TM) (short for Downloadable Technology) will give casino
operators the ability to change game content and game configurations, while
utilizing a user-friendly interface ensuring ease of use and flexibility on
their casino floor. Aristocrat's DL Technology(TM) enables customers to
maximize yield by providing a faster and more efficient method of delivery
of game contents capitalizing on the company's proprietary MKVI game
content.

OASIS FloorLogix(TM), part of Aristocrat's multiple award-winning
OASIS(TM) Casino Management System, is a comprehensive solution to managing
the networked gaming environment. OASIS FloorLogix provides the ability to
simultaneously support serial and Ethernet communication to gaming
machines; thereby allowing operators to leverage existing infrastructure
while providing options for expansion and upgrades.

Aristocrat's new OASIS SpeedMedia Director allows casino operators to
create and manage promotional content which will be displayed on the
Sentinel(R) III device. By delivering high-powered graphics, animation,
video and sound directly to the game console, operators can distribute
customized, targeted messages to key points on the casino floor while
adding entertainment to the player's gaming experience.

Aristocrat Technologies Inc. is a subsidiary of Aristocrat Leisure
Limited (ASX: ALL), a leading global provider of gaming solutions that
consistently outperform the competition. The Company is licensed by over
two hundred regulators and its products and services are available in over
ninety countries around the world. Aristocrat offers a diverse range of
products and services including electronic gaming machines, interactive
video terminal systems, electronic tables, and casino management systems.

For further information visit the company's website at
http://www.aristocratgaming.com

[imaginator]

Hi all

Aristocrat looks like to be in a downtrend. Does anyone know why?

Even when they reported a profit increase last week the stock went from 13.55 down to 12.7 in 1 day.

Whats happening? How much do you think the stock is worth?

[reece55]

Potential change of trend here (and I stress only potential!!!).....

Nice close, cross of MACD after nice high volume, ADX now positive......

The report was quite good, 20% EPS growth for the half year, these guys are cash machines...... However, their valuation is always relatively high, which is typical of the industry..

They will be a little constrained to buy back capital however - In accordance with Corporations act, I didn't think you could buy back your own shares if you don't have any share capital left on your books - share capital for ALL at present is a piddly 1.2 Mil - these guys are one of the best managers of capital going around...

Cheers
Reece

[kennas]

Potential change of trend here (and I stress only potential!!!).....

Nice close, cross of MACD after nice high volume, ADX now positive......

The report was quite good, 20% EPS growth for the half year, these guys are cash machines...... However, their valuation is always relatively high, which is typical of the industry..

They will be a little constrained to buy back capital however - In accordance with Corporations act, I didn't think you could buy back your own shares if you don't have any share capital left on your books - share capital for ALL at present is a piddly 1.2 Mil - these guys are one of the best managers of capital going around...

Cheers
ReeceThanks Reece. Looks pretty good to me too chart wise.

The 'ethical kennas' has never seriously considered them to my financial detriment perhaps. On the scale of ethical investments I put them up there with tobacco companies. Or, maybe I'm just being politically correct. :confused:

[Ken]

ALL -

I am thinking 2 things here!

Where is the bottom for ALL?

What are the dividends?


Now, from where I sit ALL is a top 50 company. So we are not talking up a your centre bet down on the corner.

This is a billion dollar company $5 billion approx.

My theory is this must be seen as a long term buying opportunity, just like MBL, and BNB where when they tanked over the credit crunch.

ALL is still going to be making big profits, paying dividends etc.

The question is what price to enter at. I think anything under $11.00 is good value as the fundamentals stack up.

If we see anything under $10 we are wiping off growth from 2004/2005.

MOST IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE -

ALL is effected by currency so a poor US $$$ is not good for this company.

However, the company is still expecting 20% growth per annum.

I would put this on the watch list.

This was a $17 stock now $10.70. The last blue chip stock to lose such ground was Rinker, and we all know what happened to Rinker.

I would be happy for PBL to come in buy ALL for $14, and I would say thats very possible.

MY experience tells me that listed stocks in the top 50 become takeover targets if they fall on fear.

Lets wait and see.

I hold as of 2 day.

[reece55]

ALL -

I am thinking 2 things here!

Where is the bottom for ALL?

What are the dividends?


Now, from where I sit ALL is a top 50 company. So we are not talking up a your centre bet down on the corner.

This is a billion dollar company $5 billion approx.

My theory is this must be seen as a long term buying opportunity, just like MBL, and BNB where when they tanked over the credit crunch.

ALL is still going to be making big profits, paying dividends etc.

The question is what price to enter at. I think anything under $11.00 is good value as the fundamentals stack up.

If we see anything under $10 we are wiping off growth from 2004/2005.

MOST IMPORTANT THING TO NOTE -

ALL is effected by currency so a poor US $$$ is not good for this company.

However, the company is still expecting 20% growth per annum.

I would put this on the watch list.

This was a $17 stock now $10.70. The last blue chip stock to lose such ground was Rinker, and we all know what happened to Rinker.

I would be happy for PBL to come in buy ALL for $14, and I would say thats very possible.

MY experience tells me that listed stocks in the top 50 become takeover targets if they fall on fear.

Lets wait and see.

I hold as of 2 day.

Ken
I would suggest you re-read the financial release - the revised outlook is 10% growth on a like for like basis (i.e. in local exchange dollars), so FX adjusted financial's could come in under this.

It was potentially looking good (T/A wise) a little while ago, but the recovery was short lived.

My opinion - if it's growing at 10% like for like and is experiencing difficult trading conditions, then even at $11 the valuation is high - don't go picking bottoms, this is a good Company with great long term prospects, but I would wait a little bit before getting on this one, there has been a fair bit of damge from a technical point of view....

All the best....
Reece

[Ken]

Hmm good advice.

I did some further research and have noted that this stock was below $1.00 in 2004.

So its up over 1000% in 3 years.


Does that make me uncomfortable holding... a little.

Picking bottoms is dangerous.

Thanks for the advice will take it on board.

[reece55]

Been a while since anyone has had a look at this sleeping giant......

T/A- Nice rebuilding price action, with bottom forming at about 8.80. We are now starting to see longish term divergence on MACD and ADX in positive. Triangle formation looks like a break should come soon, although Firday's price action wasn't really positive.....

Fundamentals - My base case scenario of 12% growth in perpetuity gives a price target of a bit over 12.00, about 30% more than current prices. Worst case scenario of 8% gives a valuation of 8.30 ish and best case of 18% growth at over $20. Like most largish stocks at the moment, it appears the market is erring on the cautious side.

Personally, a positive break out of the triangle would tempt me into a position, with a target of a bit under $13, which would appear to be the first resistance point after the breakdown in October 07. Logical stop would be a bit under 8.80.

Cheers

[blinkau]

I just jumped on board ALL on Friday actually with at a price of $9.80. Im comforted by the fact when I go out to the pub with mates and they all jump on the pokies hopefully a little of that should come back to me. They are trading on a decent yield at the moment as well and its always helpful to have a casino/gambling stock in the portfolio. I hope the TA is correct would be nice to finally profit on a stock in this market :sly:

[mickqld]

I just jumped on board ALL on Friday actually with at a price of $9.80. Im comforted by the fact when I go out to the pub with mates and they all jump on the pokies hopefully a little of that should come back to me. They are trading on a decent yield at the moment as well and its always helpful to have a casino/gambling stock in the portfolio. I hope the TA is correct would be nice to finally profit on a stock in this market :sly:

Some advise from someone who works in the gaming indusrty. I spoke to an Aristocrat sales rep last week and he said its been the hardest time lately trying to sell equipment that he had seen in 15 years. With a looming recession or at the very least a downturn the gaming industry will feel the pinch very hard. The saving grace for Aristocrat will be their overseas sales particularly in Asia but whether that will be enough to significantly move up their SP is open to conjecture.

[reece55]

Some advise from someone who works in the gaming indusrty. I spoke to an Aristocrat sales rep last week and he said its been the hardest time lately trying to sell equipment that he had seen in 15 years. With a looming recession or at the very least a downturn the gaming industry will feel the pinch very hard. The saving grace for Aristocrat will be their overseas sales particularly in Asia but whether that will be enough to significantly move up their SP is open to conjecture.

Mickqld
Your synopsis of the environment in Aust doesn't surprise me.

However, the market is a forward looking beast, not backwards. To me, that hard time was factored in the Company's share price some 3 - 6 months ago. The fundamentals appear to be factoring in low growth at the moment, certainly the ANALysts have their NPAT growth forecasts at between 6 - 12% per annum which using a DCF would give a valuation of between 9 - 11, depending on assumptions. Obviously the market over and undershoots these levels depending on sentiment. T/A is beginning to support this view, but as I said I would only be taking a position on a positive break of the symmetrical triangle.

Cheers

[dontknow]

Not good news for ALL today with the Vic ann. Tatts are cutting capex by $40m pa to 2012. I'd bet Tabcorp do likewise to cash up while the going is good.

[Plasmo]

Some inside knowledge on ALL that may not mean much but may mean something - it has the worst work culture of just about anywhere I know, most its employees are 50+ cranky old men and ladies with no motivation to do much of anything and no care to train or develop new staff. As a result anyone decent they do get in there leaves very quickly.

[reece55]

Well, looks like we received our answer on Aristocrat on Friday - clear break through support now, high volume wide candle closing on the low. With the recent changes in the Victorian gaming duopoly, it seems that both Tatts and Tabcorp will be cutting back on capital expenditure - this obviously will have an impact on ALL....

Cheers

[reece55]

And the slide continues..... Aristocrat now back down to 7.70 after it announced today earnings growth is likely to be about 5%, obviously well under the markets expectation, although hardly surprising if you consider the share price.... This stock is certainly in the dog house now, technicals smashed!

Cheers

[reece55]

Attached is an updated, much more conservative DCF, taking into account flat growth and much lower profit growth assumptions. A bit over an $8.00 valuation here based on the new assumptions, share price continues to tank...

Cheers

[TheRage]

Reece I agree with your commentry.

My thoughts though are that Vic Gaming changes will have less impact on bottom line than high aussie dollar which does not seem likely to abate.

[bluecheese101]

ALL closed today slightly higher $4.96. Anyone have any thoughts on a buy position? Or will it fall further??

[AS414]

Discussion of their latest announcements re: US market:

http://internationalbs.wordpress.com/2008/12/01/gambling-on-product-adaptation/

[So_Cynical]

ALL - Aristocrat seems to have found bottom (so far) as there has been some consistent
sideways movement for about the last 5 months...has been dipping down the last few days
since it went ex-div....at 5 year lows now.

Anyway it was the somewhat range bound SP that has attracted me...in today @ 3.38 hoping
for a run up to the top of the channel over the next few weeks...at these prices would prob be
a good one for the bottom draw too.

[dhukka]

ALL - Aristocrat seems to have found bottom (so far) as there has been some consistent
sideways movement for about the last 5 months...has been dipping down the last few days
since it went ex-div....at 5 year lows now.

Anyway it was the somewhat range bound SP that has attracted me...in today @ 3.38 hoping
for a run up to the top of the channel over the next few weeks...at these prices would prob be
a good one for the bottom draw too.

Looks reasonably good value on a fundamental basis. Outlook for the industry not favourable over the next 12 months but Japanese business slowly on the mend, lawsuit has been settled, still throwing off good cashflow albeit much reduced from prior years.

[skc]

ALL is approaching a strong resistance at the $4 - $4.1 zone. That level has held it back for almost 6 months, sending the SP back south 5 times. However, the basing pattern has been around long enough, and the recent move has broken the long term down trend.

On fundamental numbers, 2008 full year EPS of 30.5c means a PE just under 14, and yield is around 5%.

Is this a short trade in the making? Probably unwise given the recent strength in the market. Or should the trader buy on break out of the resistance?

[So_Cynical]

ALL is approaching a strong resistance at the $4 - $4.1 zone. That level has held it back for almost 6 months, sending the SP back south 5 times.

Top of the channel...i sold the other day, funny how some people are looking for
a break out and others happy to play the channel...prob will break out now ive
decided to have an ultra (for me) short term outlook.

My new mantra...always exit with a stop.

[skc]

Top of the channel...i sold the other day, funny how some people are looking for
a break out and others happy to play the channel...prob will break out now ive
decided to have an ultra (for me) short term outlook.

My new mantra...always exit with a stop.

This is quite amusing. Looking at the 6 month time frame I was all ready to short this stock, until I saw your post earlier this month about a longer term view and see the alternate long possibility :)

With the short trade you can have the stop at 10c away and possible target at least 50c reward. However, with the long trade, one may have to put their stop at the last swing low so the stop is ~60c away, with a $5.10 target to close that huge gap back in Oct. The reward/risk would only be ~2:1.

I am still leaning towards the short trade, given the strength of the resistance and the lack of volume on the up move, but it will be carefully watched based on intra day action.

[So_Cynical]

This is quite amusing. Looking at the 6 month time frame I was all ready to short this stock, until I saw your post earlier this month about a longer term view and see the alternate long possibility :)

with the long trade, one may have to put their stop at the last swing low so the stop is ~60c away, with a $5.10 target to close that huge gap back in Oct. The reward/risk would only be ~2:1.

Would be great to be in when ALL makes that break out to get back to that $5+ range...it will happen one day.

[skc]

Would be great to be in when ALL makes that break out to get back to that $5+ range...it will happen one day.

A strong break out to a high of 4.34, well above the resistance zone. But pretty average volume suggests to me just some small puppies playing the breakout? Let's see how this play out.

[skc]

Well what do you know. A nice profit downgrade plus capital raising send this share back down to earth.

The two bars after the initial break out looked bad - I wonder how many break out traders read that correctly and got out in time...

[andrewcim]

Well it got me! Another 1.5% loss to add to my capital. Took the risk on the dow entry and it looked good when it closed above the resistance level. Got done within a few days. It'll prob hit the support level and bounce back up knowing my luck.

[ROE]

Everyone gave up on this business yet ? Analyst seem pretty negative on

this one...dying and out of favor and a $200M law suit pending...
you cant seem to get anything good out of this guy

Terrible, Terrible stuff .... :D

If only it such a crab business and barrier of entry is low and return on capital is
shocker I walk away too but I cant seem to walk away from this one...demand an all out
closer look and lock and load at the right price with enough margin of safety to keep uncle Warren happy

[1q2w3e4r]

Barriers to entry are somewhat high. You would need the entrant of a major OS player to make an impact in the market place. Or you would need a local company operating within the same market via an auxiliary system to decide to either A) manufacture a machine or B) bring to market a machine from OS.

Len Ainsworth has been running AGT for years since he was tipped out of Aristrocrat and hasn't made a big dint into the market. The company (Aristocrat) isn't run by people at corporate level with long term experience or exposure to the Poker Machine and Club, Hotel industry, especially in NSW.

Factored with impact competitors new machines gaining popularity along with the fact fewer people like Aristocrat's new games.

The local market is also a mature market with the poker machine cap in place in NSW. Leaving substantial organic growth to come from OS sources.

Still that's just my 0.02c :)