Seems to me that there will be some serious volatility in the google share price.
I for one am of the opinion that they seem to be a very tenuous "buy and hold" proposition considering the nature of the internet.
http://googinfo.typepad.com/
http://www.google-ipo.com/message-board/index.php
Anyone have any plans to short the stock? or to pick some up if it hits a certain price?
One for the traders perhaps.
Cheers,
WaySolid
stefan
15th-August-2004, 08:04 AM
IT's certainly one of the most interesting IPOs we will see this year or even for a long time. I have some serious doubts about the share price. They are looking for $100+ and I am not quite sure how this is supposed to happen. The slightest negative news will make it tank like a rock. I like the professionalism of the guys... Especially the Penthouse interview *;D ::)
To consider it a buy and hold postition, you would have to be baking in the sun for just a tad too long...
Interesting to watch, but I'll stay way clear of it for a while.
Have a nice weekend
Stefan
Aceyducey
15th-August-2004, 04:02 PM
I'm not convinced about the valuations or prospects of the company.
I'm also concerned about what happens to their culture when they go public....it could kill what makes Google Google.
I made some posts about the Google IPO at Somersoft & rather than repeating, will just link to them: http://www.somersoft.com/forums/showthread.php?t=16656
Plus it's interesting how poorly Google has managed this float - aka not trademarking Gmail.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
stefan
16th-August-2004, 07:16 AM
Plus it's interesting how poorly Google has managed this float - aka not trademarking Gmail.
I agree. I mean there's no strategy at all. It would appear that they don't really care. (The creators are going to be stinking rich no matter what, so why should they bother too much?)
I think that Google will find it very hard in the first few weeks. For now I'm very much interested to see if they can achieve a $100 listing price. I just very much doubt that.
I'm also concerned about what happens to their culture when they go public....it could kill what makes Google Google.
It will kill the culture if it hasn't already done so. I mean it's come a long way since the two guys came up with the idea. It has grown and will ultimately follow others who came from a small "easy going" style into the big business world where nothing counts but share holder value. They will have to come up with more and more and more to keep the share price going.
I bet we aren't far away from other type of advertising, pop up windows and the like. It's just not going to be possible to keep it the way it is. They don't have enough ad space to support growth so they will have to come up with new ways and that will make it no different from Yahoo.
We shall see...
Happy trading
Stefan
stefan
20th-August-2004, 06:56 AM
There you go:
Initial shares of Google Inc were priced late today at $US85, the low end of a range revised downward just hours earlier, humbling expectations for the most ballyhooed internet company public stock offering since the dot-com boom went bust.
Will be most interesting to see what happens to it.
Happy trading
Stefan
Joe Blow
24th-August-2004, 06:52 PM
Currently at $US109.40.
Not a bad debut at all if you ask me.
stefan
26th-August-2004, 10:03 PM
Now 106.00. I must say I'm surprised to see it that high. Nice profit for those who got in at $85. Not the stock I like to trade but certainly a nice % gain!
I saw too much harm done in the tech crash to put another cent into an IPO again...
Happy trading
Stefan
Bingo
30th-August-2004, 03:03 PM
The price is much higher than I thought it would be. It seems to indicate that the mood towards the tech sector is changing to be more positive. It reminds me of the old new product cycles. We have been through the hype and the valley of despair and are not going into a period of mature growth. If theory holds some of the survivors will be long term success stories.
Bingo
stockGURU
23rd-October-2004, 12:13 AM
Wow! Look at Google go!
Opened at $170 this morning (U.S. time) and is looking strong on an annoucement of triple digit revenue growth for the third quarter.
Also, Prudential Securities raised its target for Google stock to $200 from $130.
Google still going strong but looking overbought to me now. Market cap of around $63 billion which is around double that of Ford and General Motors combined.
Anyone else think that maybe it's time to go short on GOOG? :2twocents
wayneL
16th-May-2005, 03:05 PM
I'm stunned as to where this has gone to...and it certainly seems to have run out of momentum.
But who the hell knows where its going next, punters aren't exactly rational as regards to GOOG.
Hmmmmm
wayneL
19th-May-2005, 01:55 PM
Looks like GOOG just doesn't wanna be shorted LOL.
....and as the gurus all say, trade with trend!
wayneL
24th-May-2005, 02:32 AM
GOOG cracks $250 :eek7:
Mofra
25th-May-2005, 10:08 PM
US Tech stocks never fall...... :p:
DTM
25th-May-2005, 11:46 PM
Wow. Goog looks set for a fall. NASDAQ also looks like its run out of steam
and you'd want to be on this one for the ride down.
:2twocents
Now where was my option express account??
WaySolid
26th-May-2005, 12:51 PM
Wow. Goog looks set for a fall. NASDAQ also looks like its run out of steam
and you'd want to be on this one for the ride down.
:2twocents
Now where was my option express account??Very big kahunas if you want to short this stock before significant price action in a southward direction. Who knows where google will be in 5 years time? Think of where they were 5 years ago.
markrmau
2nd-June-2005, 04:30 AM
This is exactly what happened to yahoo in the dotcom boom. Analysts would upgrade and up the stock would go.
Now, GOOG seems to have a market cap of $81B, compared to microsoft $280B.
Think about it. While microsoft has significantly higher overheads, they actually sell their products to say 80% of computers on the planet. Google may be used by ?? 80% ?? of people, but revenue comes predomantly from advertising. I have never clicked on an add. More importantly, what happens when the chinese and indians make their own cloans?
PS. Joe if you don't mind me asking, how much do you have to pay to get ASF advertised on google?
wayneL
2nd-June-2005, 05:27 AM
GOOG finally gets a nosebleed @ $292.89!!!!
A reversal bar today, but I still wouldn't short it. Punters now have $300 on the brain thanks to some overly exuberant anal ist.
Still its amazing where the yanks will push something if they get the flutters about it.
Cheers
WaySolid
2nd-June-2005, 10:39 AM
GOOG finally gets a nosebleed @ $292.89!!!!
A reversal bar today, but I still wouldn't short it. Punters now have $300 on the brain thanks to some overly exuberant anal ist.
Still its amazing where the yanks will push something if they get the flutters about it.
CheersGoogle seems to be diversifying into a portal quite nicely. Would think they are more likely to be an Amazon or Ebay than a Netscape.
Still it's hardly a stock to hold without careful monitoring.
MARKETWAVES
12th-June-2005, 02:42 AM
GOOGLE apprears to have broken out of this rising channel formation recently .... The question now is can it hold up going forward ...
Longer term .....
The weekly charts stochatics is saying it is over sold ...
270 now appears to be under attack ..... So I am preparing myself for the shock and awe ,. that may come of this one ...
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …
MARKETWAVES
12th-June-2005, 02:52 AM
google pg 2
serp
12th-June-2005, 09:12 PM
I think you are going to see a lot more fall until you see google break that major resistance line again.
DTM
2nd-August-2005, 09:07 PM
Anyone noticed GOOG??? Its starting to look strong again and so does the DOW. I think oil is going to drop and to me it looks like GOOG is set to shoot up again.
I am quite excited about it because I think it could be a goer.
Market, Wayne and anyone else who might think I'm right/wrong, opinions would be appreciated.
wayneL
2nd-August-2005, 09:45 PM
Anyone noticed GOOG??? Its starting to look strong again and so does the DOW. I think oil is going to drop and to me it looks like GOOG is set to shoot up again.
I am quite excited about it because I think it could be a goer.
Market, Wayne and anyone else who might think I'm right/wrong, opinions would be appreciated.
I reckon it could be good for a $10-$20 upswing...it is sitting smack bang on the 50MA and looks like it wants to bounce off of it. Could be a buy on that basis this evening.
I'm a bit skeptical past that, but nothing in this market is rational, so who knows. The analists are trotting out amazing price targets...it's just like 1999-2000 all over again!
wayneL
8th-September-2005, 06:19 AM
GOOG - $10 range today...all to the upside.
Poked it's head above both 20 & 50 MA. Time to make that run for $350,000 per share. (or whatever the latest and silliest analysts target is :-P)
:)
WaySolid
8th-September-2005, 09:24 AM
Yahoo are beta testing their click through advertising system at the moment in the US, and getting some very good reviews.
Seeing as Goog take a large % of their profit from 'ads from goooooogle' this development is one worth following closely.
RichKid
15th-October-2005, 12:05 AM
Has Google Peaked?
Potential obstacles for the world's hottest tech company.
By Adam L. Penenberg
Adam L. Penenberg is an assistant professor at New York University and assistant director of the business and economic reporting program in the school's department of journalism.
http://slate.msn.com/id/2127758/
Interesting article for those following this stock.
dutchie
28th-January-2006, 09:44 AM
WASHINGTON (Reuters) - Google Inc's decision to block politically sensitive terms on its new Chinese search site has drawn the scrutiny of U.S. lawmakers, who next month will probe American technology companies that help Beijing's censors.
Representatives from Google and other Internet companies have been called to a Congressional Human Rights Caucus hearing on Wednesday and to a February 16 session of the House of Representatives subcommittee on Global Human Rights.
The hearings follow Google's announcement on Tuesday that the company would block taboo terms in China such as democracy, Tibet, Falun Gong, and not offer e-mail, chat and Web log (blog) publishing services that could be used for political protest.
The moves by lawmakers come as Internet experts are evaluating the effectiveness of the self-censorship, which one Chinese blogger called Google's "eunuch version" -- a reference to the emasculated palace servants of historic China.
Human Rights Subcommittee Chairman Chris Smith, a New Jersey Republican, has invited Google, Yahoo, Microsoft and Cisco, as well as State Department officials and press freedom watchdog groups to the Feb 16. hearing, he said in a statement.
Smith, a frequent critic of China's human rights practices, seized on Google's corporate motto, "Don't be evil," saying in a statement that the firm "would enable evil by cooperating with China's censorship policies just to make a buck."
Smith told Reuters: "The question is not whether companies should be promoting democracy. The real question is should they partner with the secret police in cracking down on dissidents and enabling human rights abuses?"
dutchie
28th-January-2006, 09:47 AM
1 year chart - not a bad increase!!
michael_selway
28th-January-2006, 09:44 PM
1 year chart - not a bad increase!!
hehe yeah, funny thing i heard is that current PE is like 50+?
any confirmation?
thx
MS
nizar
29th-January-2006, 12:33 AM
hehe yeah, funny thing i heard is that current PE is like 50+?
any confirmation?
thx
MS
p/e=95.69
http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=GOOG
this makes it much more expensive than peers eg. yahoo p/e=60 and yahoo's revenue comes from many more sources than google which is predominantly search....
the thing abt google last time it posted earnings Q3 earnings up 7-fold... after such a massive increase, i wonder wat analysts have forecast for this year? if the results then dont meet those expectations, sp could cop it hard...
but there are a few 600+ price targets out there...
its much better 2 look for the next google....
maybe baidu?? biggest internet search provider in china... sp around US50, it reports earnings for Q4 on feb21..
michael_selway
29th-January-2006, 04:05 AM
p/e=95.69
http://money.cnn.com/quote/quote.html?symb=GOOG
this makes it much more expensive than peers eg. yahoo p/e=60 and yahoo's revenue comes from many more sources than google which is predominantly search....
the thing abt google last time it posted earnings Q3 earnings up 7-fold... after such a massive increase, i wonder wat analysts have forecast for this year? if the results then dont meet those expectations, sp could cop it hard...
but there are a few 600+ price targets out there...
its much better 2 look for the next google....
maybe baidu?? biggest internet search provider in china... sp around US50, it reports earnings for Q4 on feb21..
hehe yeah, actually Current P/E is 75.4, maybe the 95.69 was based on FY Dec 2004. Man no wonder US are crazy! Thats why the Dow and Nasdaq still havent recovered from their all time highs in 2000.
Google fails to deliver perfection
Email Print Normal font Large font February 1, 2006 - 11:17AM
Google shares fell as much as 19 per cent today after the web search company widely missed Wall Street earnings targets for the first time since its 2004 float.
An 82 per cent rise in net income and an 86 per cent lift in sales was not enough for investors and anaylsts who were expecting an even better earnings result to justify the company's stellar share price.
"Its valuation means it's priced for perfection and perfection was not delivered this quarter," said Tim Ghriskey, chief investment manager at Solaris Asset Management.
Google's share price has more than doubled in the past year and risen more than 40 per cent since its last quarterly report.
Net income rose to $US372.2 million, or $US1.22 a share, from $US204.1 million, or 71 cents, a year earlier, Google reported. Profit, excluding one-off items, was $US1.54 a share, short of the market's $US1.78 predictions .
Revenues rose 86 per cent to $1.92 billion, meeting estimates. But in its prior five quarters as a public company, Google has beaten the revenue expectation by around 5 to 8 per cent.
The result ended Google's uninterrupted streak since its August 2004 public offering of topping Wall Street quarterly profit expectations by at least 10 per cent.
Google shares were trading at $US379.00 in late after hours trade, down about 12 per cent, slicing roughly $US15 billion ($A19.7billion) from a market capitalisation that was about $US126 billion at the close of trading on Tuesday.
Google is the second big internet company to be hit by what analysts see as underperformance.
Last month, Yahoo's shares slid by 13 per cent after the company posted disappointing results that reflected weak search advertising and higher operating costs.
Google has become a Wall Street darling as well as a household word as its internet services have become synonymous with web search and analysts have set price targets at levels last seen for tech companies during the dot-com era.
Google Chief Financial Officer George Reyes said that December spending had been weak in some parts of Britain, a key market, and the stronger US dollar cut the value of foreign revenue, which would have been 2.1 per cent higher in the fourth quarter if exchange rates were constant.
Google said that because the portion of total expenses allocated to its international operations was greater than it expected, more of its profits were taxed at a higher domestic rate, taking the quarterly tax rate to 41.8 per cent.
The company's 2005 tax rate was 31.6 per cent, while Google had previously targeted about 30 percent for the year.
On a conference call to discuss results, Google Chief Executive Eric Schmidt said that the company plans to invest significantly its capital spending this year, with most of it focused on servers, networking equipment and data centers, as well as real estate.
"We are going to invest for the long term and make some really big bets," Schmidt said on the call. Revenue growth forecasts had varied between 72 per cent and 99 per cent. Virtually all Google's revenue comes from sales of web search-related advertising.
Revenue, excluding traffic acquisition costs of $US629 million, was $US1.29 billion, nearly double the $US642 million in revenue net of such costs it reported in the year-earlier fourth quarter.
Traffic acquisition costs refer to revenue that Google passes along to hundreds of affiliates, most importantly Time Warner's America Online, which rely on Google's search system to serve up advertisements on their own sites.
Google-owned sites generated $US1.10 billion, or 57 per cent of revenue. Google network revenue - sales through its AdWords network of affiliated sites - was $US799 million.
One-time items include a $US90 million donation to the Google Foundation and $US58 million in stock compensation charges, the company said.
Meanwnhile, US stocks, bonds and the dollar fell on Tuesday after the Federal Reserve raised interest rates as expected and stopped short of ruling out further moves.
Fund buying lifted gold to a new 25-year peak and silver to its highest in 22 years as firm oil prices and political concerns focusing on Iran and the Middle East boosted the safe- haven appeal of precious metals.
Interest rate jitters caused both the Nasdaq and the S&P 500 to snap a three-day winning streak, while the Dow registered its second straight day of losses.
agencies
scsl
23rd-June-2006, 12:19 AM
A $15.75 (4.07%) rise to $402.92 last night has taken the Google sp above the 50 day MA. This breakout from consolidation at the 200 day MA is a bullish signal.
It looks like all the director/employee selling is finally over. It was this offloading of millions of stock that had suppressed the sp in recent weeks.
With possible further positive earnings results to be released in July, this could well mean a push to the previous record high of $475.11. The current average target price of 27 analysts is $500!
A great 2Q result that beats analysts' estimates could push the sp over $470-480. Don't forget that the GOOG sp rose from $300 to $420 (40%) in only 5 weeks back in October 2005.
As I post this the sp is $402.33, having touched $406 just after opening.
wayneL
23rd-June-2006, 12:28 AM
A short term view.. hourly chart:
scsl
30th-June-2006, 11:45 PM
There’s been some great news lately from Google…
Less than a month away from its 2Q profit announcement (expected between July 19-27), yet another Microsoft executive has departed for Google. Vic Gundotra, former general manager for platform evangelism and a 15-year Microsoft employee, will be joining Google. Departures are watched closely in this industry, particularly when they involve Google, as a possible sign of a shifting balance of power.
Yesterday, Google unveiled its long-anticipated service for helping consumers make purchases online, setting up a potential rival to eBay’s popular PayPal system.
Called Google Checkout, the service holds consumers' credit card numbers and account information for a "one-click" shopping experience at participating retailers. This means shoppers won't have to spend time entering such information at every online store where they buy something.
I visited the Google Checkout homepage and their “Find it with Google. Buy it with Google Checkout.” slogan summed it up. This new product from Google makes it a one-stop shop for online buyers.
Pundits have described the long-rumored service as a potential PayPal killer. However, there is no doubt that this will take time, seeing as eBay’s PayPal system is the largest of its kind. Critics say that Google faces execution problems if “they add too many things too fast” – referring to the recent spate of new Google offerings. One has said "You can't go on forever throwing mud against the wall to see what sticks. Copycatting is not a business model… I think they may be sorry they did this."
Yes, Google may be ‘spreading itself thin’, but if they can gradually gain market share in these new products (as have been proven to), I will be one happy investor! As many supporters point out, the Google search/advertising franchise was once a new product as well. I commend Google for trying to penetrate new markets and I look forward to the day when these new offerings have largest market share. :D
Investors liked the sound of this and pushed GOOG stock up nearly 3% to $417.81.
Staybaker
3rd-July-2006, 06:24 PM
SBS is screening a documentary about Google tomorrow, 4th July 2006, at 8.30 pm (AEST). Here's a link (http://www.sbs.com.au/cuttingedge/index.html?id=1372). Should be interesting.
Cheers, Staybaker. :)
scsl
5th-July-2006, 03:33 PM
hi Staybaker
i was out the whole day and missed the documentary.
do you mind sharing with us the main points and anything that you thought stood out?
thx,
scsl
scsl
5th-July-2006, 04:39 PM
Why Microsoft won't buy Yahoo
An idea whose time will never come
By John C. Dvorak
Jun 30, 2006
BERKELEY, Calif. (MarketWatch) -- Sometimes you have to laugh out loud when a report comes out with analysis and suggestions that are so far out in left field that they can only be categorized as completely insane.
Thus the chit-chat around a Merrill-Lynch report suggesting that Microsoft followed by a blogosphere eruption with actual living humans thinking this notion is in any way whatsoever a good idea.
It's not. Here's why.
Yahoo's market cap has been running around $42 billion. Microsoft could buy Adobe or even General Motors and get more for its money. They are cheaper than Yahoo.
But it's not just that Yahoo is too expensive. Yahoo also doesn't fit well into the Microsoft world.
First of all Yahoo is a content generator and an advertising selling machine. It publishes old-fashioned information on the Internet. It uses all sorts of gimmicks such as free email, classified ads and directories to cajole people into returning. It also utilizes a search engine to drive traffic.
Microsoft is a software publisher that dabbles in content publishing with MSN. Everything Yahoo does MSN does. MSN may actually do it better except for maybe the ad sales. If it wants to improve the advertising game it can go raid the Yahoo staff for a lot less than $42 billion.
Start with Yahoo COO Dan Rosensweig, who happens to be one of the greatest salesmen in the world, seriously. I'm sure he'd go for less than a billion.
Microsoft is already a top five website for traffic worldwide. Yahoo is arguably number one for page views with MSN probably number two.
The only real reason for Microsoft to absorb Yahoo would be for its customers, many of whom are already Microsoft customers. This could put Microsoft into a 1-2 position or minimally second of the top five sites.
But a likely scenario is that Microsoft would do what it always does when it acquires a company: meddle and ruin it. Maybe ruin is too harsh a word, but it would change things enough so that anyone working at Yahoo, if given the chance, would flee to Google.
Google could eventually be the big winner in a Microsoft-Yahoo merger and dominate the any combined Microsoft-Yahoo operations. Right now Yahoo is the only blocking mechanism on the net that is keeping Google at bay.
And note, right now with MSN combined with the online gaming initiatives done by Microsoft and the Xbox team, the company is far in front of Yahoo technologically.
Anyone who follows this business knows that much of the reason for a high rank online is residence time. Yahoo has simply, as an online entity, been around a lot longer than Microsoft. Google is the upstart to be worried about.
Buying Yahoo doesn't solve any of Microsoft's issues with Google, all it does is bring in all sorts of redundancies which include search, forums/groups, free email, online apps and other things done by both companies. Ironing out these redundancies would be a nightmare.
And this wouldn't be one of those "buying and killing the competition" mergers because the real competition is Google. Whatever advantage would be gained by Microsoft would also be gained by Google.
This Microsoft-Yahoo deal would actually be like Google buying and killing the competition without having to spend a red cent.
But none of this will ever happen because at the base of all this Microsoft is a software company and it uses online to leverage that fact. Buying out an old first generation directory/search engine company for $42 billion can make no sense whatsoever to anyone at Microsoft.
At the end of this column I was thinking "well, what if Yahoo was $10 billion?" Would that make more sense? I don't think so since the game would still go to Google.
On the bright side there would be some amusing monikers for a combined Microsoft-Yahoo, but it would eventually end up as Micro-who?
Conclusion: no sale at any price.
http://www.marketwatch.com/News/Story/Story.aspx?guid=%7BE8EBC4A3%2DFEB0%2D4D1B%2DA393%2 DA5C557C85FF7%7D&source=blq%2Fyhoo&dist=yhoo&siteid=yhoo
If Microsoft buys Yahoo then it is game over for Yahoo because all the talented people in Yahoo will jump ship to Google and Microsoft will just end up owning a shell.
scsl
11th-July-2006, 02:03 PM
eBay stock is slightly up from its 52 week low while GOOG keeps on keeping on!
eBay's continuous downtrend is not being helped by further downgrades, the latest coming from Citigroup:
In a report issued last Thursday, Citigroup analyst Mark Mahaney cut his long-term earnings growth forecast for eBay from 22 percent a year, on average, to 20 percent a year. Citing competition from Google Checkout as his main reason for cutting his projected growth rates, Mahaney slashed his target price for eBay to $40 from $51 per share, too.
http://internet.seekingalpha.com/article/13313
furthermore, it seems eBay is genuinely concerned about the impact Google Checkout will have on PayPal.
When Google first released its Checkout offering last week, eBay made statements to the effect that it was not worried about Checkout, reassuring investors that it was not a PayPal competitor, because Checkout was targeting a different market. [For example, G-Checkout cannot be used to make payments from person to person.]
eBay’s recent actions proved the contrary. Citing Checkout as a new service “without a substantial historical track record of providing safe and reliable financial and/or banking related online transactions,” the Company has banned Checkout as a payment method for Ebay users.
scsl
11th-July-2006, 03:33 PM
UPDATE 1-RESEARCH ALERT-Piper ups Google Q2, 2007 earnings view
July 10 (Reuters) - Piper Jaffray on Monday raised Google Inc.'s (GOOG.O: Quote, Profile, Research) second-quarter earnings and revenue estimates based on strong search volumes, share gains and stable search pricing trends.
The brokerage, in a research note, said it now expects the Internet search leader's second-quarter pro forma earnings per share to be $2.26, up from its earlier estimate of $2.16.
The brokerage said it expects Google to have a net revenue of about $1.67 billion, compared with its earlier view of $1.59 billion.
The brokerage also raised its 2007 pro forma earnings view to $12.63 a share from a previous estimate of $12.12 a share.
Piper said checks and analysis of industry data indicated that Google continued to gain share in the second quarter in both the U.S. and internationally.
The brokerage has an "outperform" rating and a price target of $600 on the company's stock.
Shares of the company fell about 25 cents to around $420.20 in morning trade on the Nasdaq. (Reporting by Kuncheria Cholemkeril, Deepti Chaudhary in Bangalore) http://today.reuters.com/stocks/QuoteCompanyNewsArticle.aspx?view=CN&storyID=2006-07-10T153735Z_01_BNG321616_RTRIDST_0_TECH-GOOGLE-RESEARCH1-UPDATE-1.XML&rpc=66
scsl
13th-July-2006, 04:22 PM
Out of 38 analysts tracked by the San Francisco investment research
firm StarMine, 31 have Google's stock rated either "Buy" or "Strong
Buy." Nobody says "Strong Sell."
Piper Jaffray's analyst Safa Rashtchy... says the company's stock price
will rocket to $600 during the next 12 months. He admires Google's
aggressiveness in going after new markets with products such as Google
Checkout, an online payment system that debuted on June 29.
Rashtchy says investors will pay 50 times Google's earnings as long as
the company continues creating cash and growing every year. He's
expecting Google to produce a "substantial" $3.5 billion after-tax
profit in 2007.
Laura Martin, senior media analyst at Soleil-Fulcrum Research in New York, says Google's current share price embeds the assumption of 21% earnings before interest taxes, depreciation, and amortization growth every year for the next decade. "No advertising-driven business since 1947 has achieved anything faster than 17% per year," she says. and of the selling of stock by Google executives??
She's one of the few analysts to rate Google at "hold," but even she isn't worried about the company's insider stock sales. "It is typical of Internet senior managers to sell shares under pre-established plans," she says. She thinks it's an appropriate way for Google executives to fund their lifestyles.
http://www.businessweek.com/investor/content/jul2006/pi20060711_169640.htm?chan=top+news_top+news
scsl
13th-July-2006, 08:06 PM
finally found the date for Google's 2Q results announcement: july 20
from what i have read/researched, it sounds as though Google may well exceed 2Q estimates, so "expect upside".
the following link is one of the articles - it's from the analysts at Piper Jaffray. with the upcoming results of many major tech/internet companies expected within the next few weeks, sp of stocks in the nasdaq may get wild, particularly if they surprise the market.
Google (GOOG-OP) – Expect Upside– Positive Reaction
What to Expect. Google reports 2Q06 on July 20. We increased our estimates for Google today, increasing net revenue estimate from $1,589M to $1,672 and increasing our PF EPS estimate from $2.16 to $2.26 (see our GOOG note). We believe Google may still
exceed our new Q2 estimate of $1,672M (9% q/q) and GAAP EPS of $1.86/$2.26 PF (consensus estimates are $1,631M and $1.94 GAAP/$2.20 PF, respectively). However, we believe some of the very high estimates on the Street may be too optimistic as the
accuracy of ComScore data, on which all these estimate increases are based, is highly suspect. In fact, we believe it is very unlikely that the volume of search increased sequentially by the mid 20s level as ComScore is suggesting. However, we do believe the data is directionally correct and that Q2 was indeed stronger than expected. We estimate EBITDA of $1,038M and an EBITDA margin of 62.1%.
Margins Should be Within Expectations. Although we believe additional spending may pressure margins slightly considering the
announced distribution deals with Dell and Adobe, we continue to believe that the incremental investments will further solidify
Google's leadership position in the marketplace and lead to continued share gains over the long term.
Areas to Watch. We expect Google to highlight the recent Google Checkout product during the call. Specifically, we would look for insights regarding consumer and merchant adoption, incremental effect on revenue and costs and details regarding fraud
prevention/liability mitigation. During the call, we would also focus on progress with extending the Google platform beyond paid
search including progress with Google Checkout, Print, Radio, Wi-Fi, etc.
Takeaway. Our checks with advertisers and search engine marketing firms and analysis of industry data indicate that Google
continued to gain share in Q2 in both the U.S. and internationally. The Google brand is synonymous with search, and we believe
innovations like Google Checkout will further solidify Google's position with both consumers and advertisers. We continue to believe that the adoption of Google Checkout may result in upside to long term estimates.
for those who are interested in the US tech/internet sector, here's some music to your ears:
Industry Commentary
We expect strong results from Google and Yahoo next week and, given current
valuations, we believe the stocks will react positively. The continued strength of
search in a seasonally slow Q2, which in the past has been disappointing, could be a
major catalyst for the Internet sector which continues to trade near trough
valuations. We expect a recovery to first benefit the large cap names and then
trickle down to the stocks with the most solid positions and modest valuation,
including Netflix, Digital River, Digitas and ValueClick. In the following pages, we
provide our detailed expectations for the companies that will report next week,
Yahoo, Google, eBay and Digitas.
cheers,
scsl
good article on expectations for technology companies, in particular internet companies. provides info on the outlook of this sector.
scsl
22nd-July-2006, 02:12 PM
GOOG 2Q earnings are out!
Google's 2Q Net More Than Doubles
By Bloomberg News
July 21, 2006
Google Inc., owner of the most-used search engine, said second-quarter profit more than doubled as the company took market share from Yahoo! Inc. and Microsoft Corp.
Net income rose to $721.1 million, or $2.33 a share, from $342.8 million, or $1.19, a year earlier, Google said yesterday in a statement. Revenue rose 77% to $2.46 billion. Excluding sales passed on to other Web sites, revenue was $1.67 billion, compared with the $1.65 billion estimate of Jefferies & Co. analyst Youssef Squali.
Google parlayed its dominance of the Internet search market into a rise in profit. Google beat analysts' predictions with software that better targets ads to consumers, unlike Yahoo! Inc., which this week reported sales that missed estimates.
Google's search engine is used about three times more than Yahoo's, according to ComScore Networks Inc.
"These numbers showcase that Google is predominant in the areas where they're playing," an analyst at San Jose, Calif.-based Enderle Group, Rob Enderle, said. "Yahoo's numbers indicated they were being hit by Google.This confirms that."
Net income included a $55 million gain from the sale of a stake in Baidu.com Inc. Profit excluding one-time items was $2.49 a share, beating the $2.25 estimate of Squali, whom StarMine Corp. ranks among the most accurate Internet analysts.Analysts on average predicted profit of $2.22,based on a Thomson Financial survey of 32 estimates.
Shares of Mountain View, California-based Google, down 7% this year, rose $9.88 to $397 in extended trading. They earlier fell $11.88 to $387.12 at 4 p.m. in Nasdaq Stock Market composite trading.
Google stuck to its policy of not forecasting earnings, a practice CEO Eric Schmidt, 51, said is designed to prevent managing earnings to analysts' estimates.
"We're very, very happy with having such a strong quarter," in a period that is seasonally weaker, Schmidt said on a conference call with analysts.
The results allayed concerns about the strength of Internet search after Sunnyvale, California-based Yahoo said second-quarter revenue was $1.12 billion. Yahoo also delayed the introduction of online advertising software designed to match Google's systems.http://www.nysun.com/article/36487
scsl
11th-October-2006, 01:34 AM
Yeap!! Amazing stuff! And guess who's the buyer..... Google of course!
Actually I think GOOG will go down as the law suits will increase if the keep you tube as it is. Companys will also be sueing for more $$$ as GOOG has deeper pockets.
Now GOOG may decide to take all copyright material off you tube which will reduce their traffic significantly
either way GOOG is going down but thats just my interpretation and i am a complete NOOB when it comes to stocks
swingstar
11th-October-2006, 02:10 PM
Don't forget Google already have Google Video. So re: all these talks of lawsuits, it's not as though Google are stepping into unchartered territory. They've probably had copyrighted vids on their servers for ages, but if not, then they'll probably apply the same restrictions to YouTube.
scsl
20th-October-2006, 11:02 PM
GOOG is up over 7% tonight after reporting 3Q results that beat estimates!
It's currently at $457.69... I'm guessing that it shouldn't be long before it breaks its previous record high of about $475.
scsl
24th-October-2006, 12:18 AM
Up another 3% tonight...
I got in at $469 and am hoping to see GOOG go above $500 in the next few weeks. I'm off to bed now, it looks like GOOG could close in record high territory this session! :D
Now at $472.64.
wayneL
24th-October-2006, 12:33 AM
Up another 3% tonight...
I got in at $469 and am hoping to see GOOG go above $500 in the next few weeks. I'm off to bed now, it looks like GOOG could close in record high territory this session! :D
Now at $472.64.
Henry Blodget (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Blodget) would be proud. :D
scsl
24th-October-2006, 07:07 PM
Henry Blodget (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Blodget) would be proud. :D
LOL! It'd be great to see what he thinks of US tech stocks atm... too bad he's banned from the securities industry for life.
As a result of his negative history with the industry, his writings [now] carry a seven-paragraph disclosure of potential conflicts of interest!
Oh and on Google, it closed at an all time high of $480.78. Now for the magic $500 level...
lancedefrance
25th-October-2006, 05:41 PM
Oh and on Google, it closed at an all time high of $480.78. Now for the magic $500 level...
wait for it to go down and bring the whole tech sector down with it although thats not likely to happen following recent news
wayneL
29th-October-2006, 03:31 AM
Henry Blodget (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Henry_Blodget) would be proud. :DSpeaking of Blodget, he's got a blog (who doesn't these days), and I just stumbled on it.
http://www.internetoutsider.com/
Cheers
scsl
16th-November-2006, 02:54 AM
New high for GOOG tonight. :D Atm, it's only $3 shy of $500.
wayneL
16th-November-2006, 03:25 AM
It's amazing what an actual business plan and a viable source of revenue will do for a company! :D
wayneL
22nd-November-2006, 03:45 AM
> $500 :eek7:
ducati916
22nd-November-2006, 10:01 AM
For those that might fancy this kind of trade [Pairs trade];
Google shares are up 22% for the year and 26% for the third quarter. That's in stark contrast to the company's closest competitor, Yahoo!,which is down more than 30% on the year.
Short GOOG & long YHOO.
jog on
d998
scsl
26th-January-2007, 04:36 PM
Google will report its 4Q earnings this Wednesday (Jan 31).
Google expected to report an 88% profit gain
By Ben Charny, MarketWatch
Last Update: 10:08 PM ET Jan 25, 2007
SAN FRANCSICO (MarketWatch) -- Google Inc. is expected to report a big jump in fourth-quarter profit on Wednesday, on the strength of its dominating Internet search engine and advertising business.
For the period ended Dec. 6, Google's expected to post a profit of $2.90 a share, which is an 88% increase from a year ago. Meanwhile, Google sales should top $2.2 billion, according to a Thomson Financial survey.
Google, based in Mountain View, Calif., is benefiting from a surge in the amount of Internet advertising spending, which increased about 20% last year to more than $20 billion.
Because it operates the No. 1 ranked Internet search engine, Google has also become a virtual magnet for spending on Internet search ads, which are text ads, or sponsored Web links, that appear next to its search engine results.
According to several estimates, Google's share of the Internet search market grew beyond 45% in December, which is nearly twice the market share of Yahoo Inc.'s No. 2 Internet search engine, and four times that of other top five ranked engines.
There's also growing analyst consensus that Google may exceed expectations on Wednesday, having done so during all but one of its quarters since going public.
That's especially so for its just concluded fourth-quarter, given how Yahoo, which had a tumultuous quarter that included an executive shake-up, was able to report a 13% gain in its advertising sales earlier this week. By comparison, Google's fourth-quarter was smooth sailing.
"All boat's are being lifted," Global Equity Research analyst Trip Chowdhry said in an interview. "If Yahoo can report a 13% gain in sales, then imagine what Google's going to do."
http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story/google-expected-report-88-profit/story.aspx?guid=%7B78831A08-6A39-494B-863B-D65903BF78E2%7D
scsl
1st-February-2007, 12:45 AM
Tonight's the night - Google reports an eagerly awaited 4Q earnings after the market closes (so there's still time to get on board! :D ). The average forecast is for EPS of $2.91 on revenue of $2.19 billion. If Google beats this, watch as Google flies past $500 tomorrow night. Otherwise, it'll be similar to this time last year, when dissapointing 2005 4Q results saw the sp plunge from about $467 to $400 in just three days. (I hold and would hate for the latter to happen)
Excerpt from newsletter Earnings Whisper on Monday 29 Jan:
That leaves us with this week's earnings, and the most watched company
will be Google (GOOG). Google is one of the most talked about growth
stories of 2006, but is only up about 15% since it reported earnings
this time last year - the same as the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
What is interesting to us is the company's 2007 earnings estimates
have also increased by 15% since the company reported earnings in
January 2006 and, while the stock has typically traded around 41 times
forward earnings estimates, it is currently trading at just 39 times
2007 estimates. In addition, most analysts have raised their target
price by about 35% or more throughout the year. So, the stock, by some
metrics, is undervalued.
The problem is Google grew earnings by 89.5% in 2005 and current
estimates suggest 78.9% earnings growth in 2006, including stock-
option expense and this clearly isn't sustainable. No one wants to be
holding a $500 stock trading at 63 times trailing earnings when it is
realized that growth is slowing.
This fear has created some built-up tension in the stock ahead of the
company's earnings release and our analysis of the implied volatility
of Google's option prices suggests a tremendous price swing will
follow the release.
The stock appears to have some technical resistance at $513, which is
the high set on January 16, 2007, but if the company beats earnings,
there seems to be no reason why the stock can't trade above $530 based
on current earnings estimates and expected growth rate.
There seems to be little doubt that this will happen. Youssef Squali
at Jefferies & Co. said that Google should beat estimates; Safa
Rashtchy at Piper Jaffray said he expects the company to beat revenue
estimates; Steven Weinstein at Pacific Crest Securities said he
believes the company could beat his above-consensus earnings and
revenue estimates; and Justin Post at Merrill Lynch said their channel
checks suggest Google had a "robust" fourth quarter with strong
eCommerce activity and market share gains, which should result in an
upside revenue surprise of $20 million to $60 million.
We have not changed our Earnings Whisper ® number of $3.05 per share
since we established it a couple of weeks ago, but since then the
consensus earnings estimate has ticked up a penny to $2.91 primarily
due to Clayton Moran at Stanford Financial Group who raised his
estimate $0.20 per share on January 22, 2007 to be inline with the
Earnings Whisper ® number. The consensus revenue estimate is $2.19
billion, but we believe anything below $2.25 billion will likely be a
disappointment and believe $2.30 billion or more is the real
expectation.
