Should I sell all my stock and count my losses? [Archive]

fryzie

7th-June-2006, 06:24 PM

RichKid

7th-June-2006, 06:30 PM

I start trading about 2 months ago with $5,000. Ive been taking recommendations on here and another site (who are supposedly trading experts). But my stocks have done nothing but go down hill and ive lost about $1,500 so far. Should i just sell everything and count my loses?
Atm ive got money in FDL, AEX and KAL

Hi fryzie,
If you have done badly after construing what has been posted here as personal recommendations (despite the code of conduct, posting guidelines and various comments against it here on ASF) then why would you want to go to the same source for more tips? You must take responsibility for your actions rather than looking to unknown 'experts' to apportion blame. I am, however, sorry that you have not profited from your trading but you are not alone.

My suggestion is to quit looking for tips and to start reading, patiently, the many threads which are not on what to buy. Also note, again, that nothing said here should be construed as financial advice for you to act upon. Best to see a qualified professional who can look at your overall situation.

The Mint Man

7th-June-2006, 06:49 PM

rich kid, cant agree more with that.
fryzie,
I would only ever buy shares based on my own research and decisions. Sure I would read peoples post/recommendations but like I said I would only ever consider buying them based on what my toughts were after doing research.

If your the type of investor that would like to do a little research but be pointed in the right direction then you may want to subscribe to something like the rivkin report. I belive they have a 75% profit sucess rate over 8 years. In other words, out of all the recommendations they have made over the last 8 years 75% of them have made a profit and on average have made 10.6% each.

But once again, dont take my word for it. Do your own research!

wayneL

7th-June-2006, 07:04 PM

dreilly

7th-June-2006, 07:10 PM

what other site have you been using?? im just curious as a site that ive subscribed to (and pay'd good $$ for) is feeding me nothing but bogus tips.

PM me if you want.

fryzie

7th-June-2006, 07:19 PM

thanks for the advice

yeh i was talking about topstocks.com.au

justjohn

7th-June-2006, 07:23 PM

fryzie you learn by your mistakes after only 2 months you probably bought in high and over the last couple of weeks we have been seeing a correction in the market,hang in there,learn some patience take on board other peoples opinions and do your homework then you start to get the feeling for things. If you sell now you will be taking a fairly heavy loss, give your stock time to bounce back. :jump: GOOD LUCK

Porper

7th-June-2006, 07:34 PM

If your the type of investor that would like to do a little research but be pointed in the right direction then you may want to subscribe to something like the rivkin report. I belive they have a 75% profit sucess rate over 8 years. In other words, out of all the recommendations they have made over the last 8 years 75% of them have made a profit and on average have made 10.6% each.

But once again, dont take my word for it. Do your own research!

75% success rate means very little without divulging how much the other 25% lose.

This type of headline is used to sucker new investors/traders in .........................and it works.:eek:

Brissydave

7th-June-2006, 07:36 PM

Hey fryzie

After only two months, especially the recent one, lots of people are down and not just the new traders like you and I ... but as a mate tells me this is the best time to learn about the market and even better, it's a good time to learn about yourself too.

Cheers .... Dave

Rafa

7th-June-2006, 07:52 PM

not to worry... my first trade was pasminco at 10 cents... in year 2000. it collapsed... lost about 20K... made many more losses in shares like chemeq, ventracor, air nz, oroya, etc, etc, etc...

overall, i am still way up...

most people would be DOWN in the last two months,
and generally the less money you have, the less balanced your portfolio, so the more % fall...

don't get too stressed, look at it more as a night out in the casino... (see thread on gambling...) ... and make sure you learn from it...

nizar

7th-June-2006, 07:53 PM

I start trading about 2 months ago with $5,000. Ive been taking recommendations on here and another site (who are supposedly trading experts). But my stocks have done nothing but go down hill and ive lost about $1,500 so far. The reason why I havnt sold them yet is because right when im thinking of selling, I see another post about 'annoucement coming could mean big bucks' (then there is no announcment), or something similar. Should i just sell everything and count my loses?
Atm ive got money in FDL, AEX and KAL

You mite think that ur timing was bad, but its not "timing" the markets that counts, its "time in the markets" - over time, company earnings can compound and take the share price along with it
eg. BHP was ~$8 about 3 years ago, and now its $27, but last month it was $32
eg. WPL was ~$1.89 in 1989, and now its $43, a few months back was close to $50

The sharemarket gives u the best gains over any asset class in a long period of time (ie. several years), but they are arguably the most volatile asset class, so its not the place to be if ur looking for short term gains

If ur looking for short-term gains, then the market maybe isnt where u should be looking

About the companies u invested in; the seem like high risk/return plays to me; AEX in a few years will either be producing 2million lb or uranium per year and 200,000oz/pa of gold, or it could be nothing; FDL is a diamond play; i dont know enough to comment really..

I think u should think about ur strategy before making any more moves

Good luck

Ants

7th-June-2006, 07:57 PM

Dude many people dont like to give advice because they dont like to be wrong (who does?)...and at the moment even most pro's opinions are divided or they are just plain stumped.
So I thought I could help you a bit from one newb to another...

Ive sold out but kept a couple little plays. The reading ive been doing suggests further drops across the board.

I am a complete newb to trading and have lost a little from the correction. Due to this I have decided to sit out and watch. Yeah I could have made money If I was to sit and watch by the minute (and had put my crystal ball in for a service). But I decided to get out with a loss and preserve my nerves for my other activities ( I had a bit on over the last few weeks and "the correction"...wasnt helping things)

The advice given to me on this forum is always polite and more importantly helpful.
Please understand that this is just a little talk about what another newb has done . NOT what I think you should do.
Cheers and good luck with you choices,
Ants.

GreatPig

7th-June-2006, 07:57 PM

Well here are charts of your stocks. They're all pretty cheap speculative ones - very risky to start out with.

Cheers,
GP

tech/a

7th-June-2006, 08:02 PM

What price did you buy each stock?
How many of each?

Once you sell you will have realised the loss.
With well over 60% lost you should think hard about liquidation.

FDL is in consolidation after that spike. Its still bullish from the Gap,which has been tested but not closed.Heavy selling into any up move is very common in spikes which have come off super quick like this has.Yesterday buying pushed to .03c and sellers rushed in.Unfortunately if you bought high you'll have to wait until sellers dry up. Strong support at .025 I see as a good thing as well as buyers pushing to 3c.

AEX.Technically a fall below 4c would be a disaster. If the gap from today fills within 3 days that will be a good thing. This is pretty weak.

KAL.
OUCH!!!
Support at 14.5c the same will happen to this when buyers appear as is happening to FDL. Again pretty weak but has found some support over 2 bearish trade days.

Lets just think about this logically.

Sell tommorow and you realise the loss--Maximum return $1500.

So as of today we have a $1500 decision
Do we have more chance of gaining something higher than $1500 or will we erode the remaining $1500 further.

Well technically its not very pretty,to expect a final profit would be pretty remote---there could be an announcement that sends the share--any of them--to Mt Everest but then again they could be delisted---both remote in possibility.

If you dont sell then there is a chance of re gaining some lost capital---sell and that wont happen.
Most sell when the pain becomes un bearable only to see prices reverse.

If I was holding these stocks in a position such as yours,I would be considering how to mitigate loss.I will have a loss but how can I minimise it.
Selling would not be the answer---the risk is more downside.
Ive already lost $3500 so a further $500 or so while this correction completes may be better than realising that loss---NOW.

But you'll know what to do next time.
Ill post the charts if you need them.

The Mint Man

7th-June-2006, 08:10 PM

75% success rate means very little without divulging how much the other 25% lose.

This type of headline is used to sucker new investors/traders in .........................and it works.:eek:

agreed. some have had some whopers! but all that info is on their site. which can be found with research.

GreatPig

7th-June-2006, 08:18 PM

Tech,

or will we erode the remaining $1500 further
$1500 was the amount lost, so there should still be $3500 remaining.

Cheers,
GP

tech/a

7th-June-2006, 08:25 PM

Tech,

$1500 was the amount lost, so there should still be $3500 remaining.

Cheers,
GP

Sorry miss read the post.

Throws some new light on the topic.
If it was me Id sell IF

FDL trades at .023
AEX .040
KAL 14c

This is only what Id do.
Im not a financial advisor,this is offered as an opinion based on my veiw of those stocks technically.This is not to be considered as advice.

I would however be interested in what advice a licienced Financial Advisor would give you!!

suhm

7th-June-2006, 08:29 PM

Hey fryzie,

The penny hopefuls arent really the best way to start trading. You might make huge amounts of money but its quite hard to tell and even if you do it would probably have to do more with blind luck than any fundemental analysis of how much the company is really worth and is definitely not sustainable in the long term. Your best bet would be to read up and figure out what would be the best move for yourself.

That said some ppl seem to do alright trading them but I have no clue how much an exploration company diggin holes in the outback is worth and i'm pretty sure not many ppl would.

As always nothing I say should be taken as financial advice,
suhm

Bobby

7th-June-2006, 09:03 PM

I hold FDL, like the ratios !

Will hold to the next jump ;) up to mid July.

Bob.

powerkoala

7th-June-2006, 09:19 PM

Oh, mate.. you just lost a bit compare to other ppl....
This correction is started when you jump in...
It's been expected, but many ppl dont believe it including me... :banghead:
So, what happen is, read and read more.. don't believe what you read or see,
you make all the buying and selling, don't blame others..
Cheers
PS : let's pray for the bulls to come back, shall we? :D

Nick Radge

7th-June-2006, 09:24 PM

hmmm...

Disclaimer: All Stock Tips and Stock Bets appearing on this website (the TopStocks.com.au ASX stock discussion forum) are submitted by the general public who are not licensed financial advisors. None of the information on this website is financial or investment advice, you should seek independent financial or investment advice by a licensed financial or investment advisor before entering into any position of financial risk. Before using this website, you must agree to the TopStocks.com.au terms and conditions of use.

Here is the equation:

non-licensed + General public + Bull market + leveraged environment = ?

Seaking

7th-June-2006, 10:33 PM

non-licensed + General public + Bull market + leveraged environment = ?
Bloody hell Nick, That's 4 things to add up, I can't find any of them on my calculator and no matter what I try it keeps coming up with nothing... :rolleyes:

wayneL

7th-June-2006, 10:55 PM

non-licensed + General public + Bull market + leveraged environment =

-$1500?

MichaelD

7th-June-2006, 11:02 PM

I start trading about 2 months ago with $5,000. But my stocks have done nothing but go down hill and ive lost about $1,500 so far. Should i just sell everything and count my losses?
This may sound facetious (but it is not meant to be, it is meant to be good advice) - what does your trading plan tell you to do in this situation? Sell or hold?

Welcome to the crazy world of stocktrading where unfortunately without a fully worked out approach to the markets before engagement, new stock traders pay dearly for their education.

My suggestion - go out to a bookstore immediately and purchase at least one good book on stock trading and read it as if your money depended on it (since it does). There are many good books for beginners (and many bad ones), but the one I'd suggest as the friendliest read at this point in time for you would be Louise Bedford's Trading Secrets.

Having read the book, you will at least have some concept of what the correct answer for you will be in regards to your portfolio.

MichaelD

Bobby

7th-June-2006, 11:06 PM

-$1500?
Great Answer Wayne !! :D

Nick :eek:

Bob.

clowboy

7th-June-2006, 11:54 PM

WayneL,

Technically I think it should be -30% as it would be applicable to anyone and we all have differing amounts of capital :P

tech/a

8th-June-2006, 07:05 AM

OK fine he did the "not so smart thing" but he HAS asked a question?

The last thing he needs is to be told how thick he is---he knows that!

Now let him "Do the smart thing" and ask a forum what to do!

The Once-ler

8th-June-2006, 07:09 AM

Howdy frizie.

I'm down 75 grand this correction. WOW, that's bad. But I piled in 3 years ago and I was up 400 grand 6 weeks ago, now up 325 grand, so don't feel sorry for me.

I think you have learned a very valuable lesson. In your lifetime you will get back much more than the $1500 you've lost. It's true.

You probably shouldn't even be trading at your level of experience. Your basically funding the 10% of good traders who make heaps.

If I was you I would put the lot into Woolworths shares, learn a bit about the market and try again when your more experienced. You've done what happens at the top of every cycle. You've heard from friends or the media, about how well shares were going, you have got in at the very top and lost. Lots do the same.

Good luck.

Realist

8th-June-2006, 09:12 AM

If I was you I would put the lot into Woolworths shares :nono:

Absolutely great company, tremendously overpriced though.

P/E of 22, dividend of 3%. :bad:

If Woolworths keeps growing it will own the whole of Australia soon, and that just wont happen!!

BHP or RIO or Westfield is the go!! :bigthumb:

Realist

8th-June-2006, 09:26 AM

My suggestion - go out to a bookstore immediately and purchase at least one good book on stock trading and read it as if your money depended on it (since it does). There are many good books for beginners (and many bad ones), but the one I'd suggest as the friendliest read at this point in time for you would be Louise Bedford's Trading Secrets.

:bad:

My suggestion is to give up trading!!

The stress, tax, and brokerage fees, only lead to a death of 1000 cuts.

$1000 traded for a 10% price gain could be estimated at. $20 brokerage to buy, $100 profit, $20 brokerage to sell, $30 tax, overall = 3% return. You make $30. :bad:

Take up investing, learn how to buy great companies that are undervalued and leave them for as long as possible. Reinvest the dividends and become truly rich. You can forget tax and brokerage fees cause you aint selling, forget stress cause you don't care what happens day to day.

$1000 invested and not sold in a good company that pays dividends, for a 10% price increase over 1 year, equals $20 brokerage, $100 profit, $50 dividends, $10 tax on dividends = 12% return - you make $120.

4 times the profit of a trader!!

Is it easier to make 10% in a day,week or in a year? I can't make 10% in a day and never try, in a year is easy though!!

(sorry traders I just had to have this snipe ;) )

nizar

8th-June-2006, 11:17 AM

GreatPig

8th-June-2006, 11:29 AM

BECAUSE THE MOST U CAN LOSE IS 100%
As long as you're not leveraged.

GP

Realist

8th-June-2006, 11:34 AM

As long as you're not leveraged.

:eek:

professor_frink

8th-June-2006, 11:46 AM

I agree realist

Peter Lynch's research shows that if u were to invest a sum of money annually at the highest point in every single year (how unlucky), over 20 years u would make 10.6times ur money, and if u were to invest a sum of money annually at the lowest point in every single year (wat a champ), over 20 years u would make 11.7times ur money

Not a great deal of difference

In the last 30 years the FTSE is up by 19-fold

In the last 25 years the DOW is up by 13-fold

And of course some stocks outperformed massively

Why is it so easy to be profitable in the stockmarket in the long-term?

BECAUSE THE MOST U CAN LOSE IS 100% BUT THERE IS NO CEILING TO THE GAINS

Going back to the start of any bullmarket will make the return look impressive

here's flip side to that statement
3/9/1929 DOW-380

25 years later
3/9/1954 DOW 343

-9.7%.

The DOW bottomed in 1932 at around 40 :eek:

My suggestion is to give up trading!!

The stress, tax, and brokerage fees, only lead to a death of 1000 cuts.

lol :D

nizar

8th-June-2006, 11:51 AM

Going back to the start of any bullmarket will make the return look impressive

here's flip side to that statement
3/9/1929 DOW-380

25 years later
3/9/1954 DOW 343

-9.7%.

The DOW bottomed in 1932 at around 40 :eek:

lol :D

PF,

FTSE was from 1970 until now: many bulls and bears in the last 30 years

DOW was from 1982 until now: so that famous 1987 crash is included

But of course u can take the example of the biggest stockmarket crash in history; from 380pts in 1929 until 43pts in 1932.. :D

professor_frink

8th-June-2006, 12:01 PM

DOW was from 1982 until now: so that famous 1987 crash is included

But of course u can take the example of the biggest stockmarket crash in history; from 380pts in 1929 until 43pts in 1932..

you took the one of the biggest bullmarket's in history so I thought I'd show the biggest bear! The 87 crash, whilst huge event, it wasn't a bear market in the DOW. The crash lasted 6 weeks then carried on upwards for the next 13 years.

The last secular bear in the dow was from 66-82
9/2/66 DOW 995

9/2/82 DOW 780

-21%

Looks even worse!

I didn't look at the ftse so I won't make any comments on that!

Joe Blow

8th-June-2006, 12:07 PM

My suggestion - go out to a bookstore immediately and purchase at least one good book on stock trading and read it as if your money depended on it (since it does).

No need to go to a bookstore. You can buy hundreds of stockmarket/trading books from the ASF Investment Shop (http://www.aussiestockforums.com/shop) and get a warm, fuzzy feeling knowing that you are helping to support ASF! :D

powerkoala

8th-June-2006, 03:12 PM

Guess ur nitemare just started...
how much u lose today ? :p:

Realist

8th-June-2006, 03:33 PM

Going back to the start of any bullmarket will make the return look impressive

here's flip side to that statement
3/9/1929 DOW-380

25 years later
3/9/1954 DOW 343

-9.7%.

ahh, but Professr Fink, (if that is your real name?). I believe you would be ahead over that time. Because "u invest a sum of money annually at the highest point in every single year".

For most of those years the dow was under 343.

You lose on the shares you buy in 1929 sure, but in 1932 you may have been buying when it was less than 50, in which case you'd maybe make a 700% increase on those shares. Add in dividends reinvested you'd be miles ahead!!

professor_frink

8th-June-2006, 03:57 PM

ahh, but Professr Fink, (if that is your real name?). I believe you would be ahead over that time. Because "u invest a sum of money annually at the highest point in every single year".

For most of those years the dow was under 343.

You lose on the shares you buy in 1929 sure, but in 1932 you may have been buying when it was less than 50, in which case you'd maybe make a 700% increase on those shares. Add in dividends reinvested you'd be miles ahead!!

very good point. Here's my 'but'- During the depression most wouldn't have had money spare to put into the markets, and that's if they even had a job! (slightly off topic and completely unverifiable on my part but thought i'd through it in there). Do you know if many companies paid dividends during that time? Not being an investor I don't know so you'll have to fill me in on that one.

If you were able to get out before things got too bad you would have had alot of capital to reinvest. Which goes back to what I mentioned to you in another thread about buying dips(even further off topic but worth mentioning)

p.s it's not fink it's frink, so no it's not my real name :D

Realist

8th-June-2006, 04:59 PM

Good point Professor Frink.

Virtually no-one had 2 pennies to rub together in 1932 let alone scour the market for bargains. So you are right, to invest a large deal of money into the stockmarket at that time would have been unlikely. It would be better to buy a loaf of bread to feed your family. :cool:

Yes companies still did pay dividends in 1931. There are some companies that have paid dividends consistently every year from 1890 to 2006.

professor_frink

8th-June-2006, 05:08 PM

that's good for you investin types to know(about the dividends). I gotta make one final point- anyone that has the testicular fortitude to hold a company during a move like the dow made in 1929-32 deserves to make a fortune in the long run. Judging by the way some people seem to be behaving(panic anyone?) at the moment it would take a very strong individual to hold through that.
It's also good to see you backing up the talk by buying some rio this arvo. Hope it goes well for you :) . Just for fun here's the dow during that period-

Realist

8th-June-2006, 05:38 PM

Is that the Dow, or the Mexican high diving cliff of death? :confused:

and goooOOOO RIO!! ;)

$100 by this time next year! :D

justjohn

8th-June-2006, 06:18 PM

FRYZIE how`s things after today, isnt it fun :1zhelp:

GreatPig

8th-June-2006, 07:40 PM

RIO possibly forming a head & shoulders. Target downside (if completed) to around $63.

GP

pacer

8th-June-2006, 08:26 PM

BOASTING .... BUT WHATEVER, I'M STOKED

YYYYYYYYEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEEHHHHHHHHHHHHHHAAAAAAAAAAA AAAAA!!!!!!!!!!!!!

RIDING THE BRONKO BULL DOWN!!!!!!!!........Now the bear growls loudly!!!!!

Couldn't yall see the trend........It's soooooooo obvious and has been played out sooooooooooo many times ....put one graph over the other and you all will see it, just in smaller increments!.........there will probably now be a small drop tomorrow, having passed below that psycological barrier, then a period of small gains over the next week and then another big drop, according to the mapping over I do, then more very slow gains, so yall be ready to ride a bear or a bull tomorrow, my bet is it is gonna be a bear, but I got MOSTLY out at the end of today kept 1000 shares short( as you do when you're really happy) after shorting RIO on friday at $80 with $10,000 (my Whole stake) and mostly out at $73.45 What a day I nearly dropped the ball at a $74.60 to buy back.....luck!!!

Well now that's off my chest....you should all stay the hell out till all the fuss dies down, pay off your morgages and buy tinned food for the fallout.....hehe....better still put it all on No.5 in the 6th at Randwick on saturday........ hehe lol hehe..oh boy the boubon's getting to me.

OK,OK, I know yall tell me to sod off, but ya gotta skite now and then.....You may see me at the local shouting a few beers...I'll be the one pumping myself up, lol .........But I won't be talking about the $4k I lost on bloody nuenco.

Maybe I'll buy back into NEO again...HHHHMMMMMMMM

Be cool guys and catch uyall later

PS If I wasn't on the happy juice I would never have given that advice or been so full of myself......BBBBBRRRRRRRRPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPPP!!!!!!!! !!!!!

stink

9th-June-2006, 09:29 AM

I start trading about 2 months ago with $5,000. Ive been taking recommendations on here and another site (who are supposedly trading experts). But my stocks have done nothing but go down hill and ive lost about $1,500 so far. The reason why I havnt sold them yet is because right when im thinking of selling, I see another post about 'annoucement coming could mean big bucks' (then there is no announcment), or something similar. Should i just sell everything and count my loses?
Atm ive got money in FDL, AEX and KAL

HI Fryzie,

I am also very new to the game but have recently had some good education and frankly your post concerns me because.
1. Taking recommendations? everything i have learnt so far from successful traders is you do NOT make a trade based on recommendations. You can investigate the trade but you do nothing until it meets your own criteria.

2. On that do you have a trading plan? you have bought shares but when are you out? Whats your target profit? how much can you afford to lose? You need to get your plan together mate and take advice for what it is.

3. Some here will say good on you for getting into the market, i think you have done so prematurely, did you do any papertrading? its not going to make you a guru but it drastically improves your understanding of how and why stocks do what they do.

If i were you i would get my money out and no go back in until you understand why you are in a trade to start with or even better why you are not. Even the most well educated are still going to lose in this game, so where does that place you?

I hope i havent insulted you at all as thats by no means my intention, bottom line is get yourself educated and confident in the market before you commit you hard earned?

Regards and all the best!
Stink

bullmarket

9th-June-2006, 09:38 AM

1. Taking recommendations? everything i have learnt so far from successful traders is you do NOT make a trade based on recommendations. You can investigate the trade but you do nothing until it meets your own criteria.

2. On that do you have a trading plan? you have bought shares but when are you out? Whats your target profit? how much can you afford to lose? You need to get your plan together mate and take advice for what it is.

3. Some here will say good on you for getting into the market, i think you have done so prematurely, did you do any papertrading? its not going to make you a guru but it drastically improves your understanding of how and why stocks do what they do.

spot on stink...!! :)

cheers

bullmarket :)

Realist

9th-June-2006, 10:16 AM

RIO possibly forming a head & shoulders. Target downside (if completed) to around $63.

I have no idea about charts. Never bother with them actually :confused:

But I do know RIO is an excellent longterm buy!

If it goes to $63 I buy more!!

It wont though! :D

It'll go to 100 in a year.

stink

9th-June-2006, 10:44 AM

I have no idea about charts. Never bother with them actually :confused:

But I do know RIO is an excellent longterm buy!

If it goes to $63 I buy more!!

It wont though! :D

It'll go to 100 in a year.

LOL here you go mate, my point exactly. Realist is probably right or he may be wrong?

You need to do your own analysis of the opportunity.

If you were driving in an unknown area at night and asked someone how to get to your destination and the response was " could be down that way or could be the other way, i dont really know" do you just flip a coin? I know i would get my map out and make my own decision. If you take one road and you drive of a cliff, who's fault is that? who will you blame?

I think if you take tips you should take your money to the track instead, you will probably do better :-)

Another point to think about is this. Just because someone says they are the best trader, are they? how do you know? Forums are opinions mate gotta weed out the crap and find the information that is helpful and relevant to you.

Regards Stink