The Russian and Japanese shortage saw prices jump to a steady AUD$90c - 1.00/Lt mark here this week?
:-/
positivecashflow
7th-August-2004, 12:18 PM
Well the cheapest day around here would probably have to be Tuesday. *I filled up 94.9c.. but then by Friday it jumps 10c ...
>:( *What can you do though...
Cheers,
J.
jkool
7th-August-2004, 05:02 PM
I just dont get it. Why is the oil/fuel price going up so much can anybody please explain?
As far as I am aware one russian company Yukos has been frozen following the business practices of its management. Putting aside the business practices and rocket wealth gains of some russian business men I dont see how can one single company affect global economics so significantly. Is that for real or is that just market psychology playing around?
wayneL
7th-August-2004, 06:13 PM
Without a scerrick of fundamental or technical justification, I think the top in crude is in....for now!
But look forward to much higher oil prices in the not too distant future.
A lot of the smarties are saying $55 a barrel within a few months :o
stefan
8th-August-2004, 05:19 AM
just dont get it. Why is the oil/fuel price going up so much can anybody please explain?
Well, first I would suggest they have been way too low for a long time.
Secondly:
The world economy has to recover from a slump for which it depends on low oil prices. Therefore demand is most likely to increase. High demand -> High price. Add to that a few shaky events in Russia and the instability in Iraq, Saudi Arabia and South America and you're nothing short of a crisis. Almost all the big producing countries are involved in some sort of conflict.
US demand has risen because of strengthening economic recovery and greater need for higher grade crude oil suitable for processing into petrol (gasoline) for the fuel-hungry Sport Utility Vehicles (SUVs) popular with US drivers. (They will just never learn...)
Chinese demand is up 20% over the past year. Traders are betting this rapid growth will continue for several years although there is some chance that the economy will "overheat" and oil demand growth will slacken.
Among suppliers only Saudi Arabia has significant spare capacity that it can make available to the market.
Low stock:
Oil companies have tried to become more efficient in recent years and operate with lower stocks of crude oil.
This means there is less of a cushion in the market against supply interruptions.
Events such as violence in the Middle East, ethnic tension in Nigeria and strikes in Venezuela have had a greater effect on prices in the past year than might have been the case if stock levels were higher.
Changed Opec strategy:
The producers' cartel Opec accounts for about half of the world's crude oil exports and attempts to keep prices roughly where it wants them by trimming or lifting supplies to the market.
That should be enough reading for the weekend. :-)
Happy trading
Stefan
Jett_Star
8th-August-2004, 05:43 AM
Wow!
Thanks Stephan. *That was very insightful.
You are so right about the sector of the US community that love their big SUVs, they will never learn. *Same too in Canada.
Somebody made an interesting comment to me about the US... being one of the few places in the world that you could by a gallon of petrol (gasoline) for around $1.50 US consistently.
I would like to mention that this was not my work. It's a compressed version of what others have said about oil prices. I just so happen to agree with it 100% ;D
Interesting site you mentioned there. After all, we shouldn't blame it on the US and their SUVs, when we are so fund of driving big 4WDs over here. In Europe where fuel has been expensive for a long time due to heavy taxes people have changed their attitude. Unfortunatelly people only change if you make them pay for wasting ressources.
We may just look at water in Australia to see how true this is.
Happy trading
Stefan
jkool
8th-August-2004, 02:07 PM
Thank for indepth info Stefan. Its much cleared to me know.
Makes me thinking of putting some bigger money in the oil stock for the long term run perhaps. Normaly resources would not be my preffered sector.
Aceyducey
8th-August-2004, 06:33 PM
It's not a bad idea jkool.
If you invested the minimum $2,000 per float in the last five oiler floaters on the ASX (20c per share subscription) your portfolio would be worth $11,950 as of Friday's close....or 19.5% gain across the board.
If you'd read the prospectuses closely it was pretty easy to discard MOG (Moby Oil), so you'd have made quite a bit more.
Share prices as of Friday close:
MOG 17.5
THK 34
EXR 28.5
STX 23.5
EPE 16
For the next two oiler floats, Entek has closed subscriptions early oversubscribed & Merlin has been open for subs for only a week so far (I have an interest in Merlin).
I expect good results from both of these as well.
You can also go the tried & true route and invest in Hardman, Santos, or another of the largish Australian oil companies...or a bit more speculative (but very safe if you look at their asset cover) the Stuarts & Coopers. I'd suggest avoiding the Innaminkas - their director's cut of 15% of production is very high.
As a tip - look at the latest moves by Cooper Energy into offshore Morocco - now that's a good Australian oil story unfolding!
BTW Stefan, I agree with your sentiments.
Only Saudi Arabia of all OPEC countries can realistically claim to have additional supply capacity (1.5 million barrels/day) and frankly I'll believe it when I see it!
In any case their water injection techniques does run the risk of their major fields dropping abruptly in production capacity in a VERY short period of time.
Read the latest commentary from Matthew Simmons for more interesting information about Saudi oil 'reserves' (http://www.simmonsco-intl.com/files/Hudson%20Institute.pdf).
Cheers,
Aceyducey
Jett_Star
12th-August-2004, 07:05 AM
Wow thanks for the heads up Aceyducey!
Aceyducey
12th-August-2004, 11:42 AM
An update today...
MOG 17.5
THK 40 (options trading higher than list share price)
EXR 33.5
STX *21.5
EPE 16
With that $10K portfolio you'd now be at $12,850 - or 28.5%
If Enterprise (EPE) gets success in their current well (and it's a high probability drill), there's likely to be quite a bit more upside.
Shame about Hardman though - but it was possible to see it coming.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
stefan
12th-August-2004, 01:43 PM
Shame about Hardman though - but it was possible to see it coming.
I'd say that's only a temporary thing. They already bounced back nicely today, I think.
Happy trading
Stefan
Wysiwyg
19th-October-2008, 01:45 AM
Well the price of crude oil per barrel is less than half of its previous peak YET THE PUMP PRICES NEVER COME DOWN IN LINE.
Borders on being held to ransom by the large oil corporations.:(
Nyden
19th-October-2008, 03:31 PM
Well the price of crude oil per barrel is less than half of its previous peak YET THE PUMP PRICES NEVER COME DOWN IN LINE.
Borders on being held to ransom by the large oil corporations.:(
Why should it? Have you seen how much the AUD has fallen to the USD? You can partially thank the good ol' RBA and their rate cuts for that as well :)
Wysiwyg
20th-October-2008, 12:28 PM
Why should it? Have you seen how much the AUD has fallen to the USD? You can partially thank the good ol' RBA and their rate cuts for that as well :)
Taking the forex rate into consideration, the price per barrel has come off more than $40 from it`s high.
Why shouldn`t it??
Wysiwyg
20th-October-2008, 01:06 PM
To be exact ....
Past time (peak)
The cost of 1 barrel of WTIC 11/07/08 was US$147.90.
The AUD/USD closed at 96.635.
The cost per barrel of oil in AUD was therefore $153.05.
Present time (well 30 minutes ago anyway)
The cost of 1 barrel of WTIC = US$72.80.
The AUD/USD = 69.733.
The cost per barrel of oil in AUD is therefore $104.00.
That is $49.05 off the high.
The fuel prices should come down in line with the cost per barrel.They don`t.There endeth the lesson.
wabbit
20th-October-2008, 01:30 PM
See post #4 at http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=350220&highlight=wabbit#post350220
