Free Futures & Implied Volatility charts for commodities

[wayneL]

I don't suppose many trade futures options here, but FYI I have collated a resource of IV charts for all the liquid futures contracts HERE (http://vw-organics.netfirms.com/IV_charts.htm)

CHECK OUT SILVER & COPPER IV'S... Oh to have big Kohunas!

[markrmau]

Thanks for that Wayne. Will you be updating them from time to time?

About the 60% IV for silver, copper and NG.

What do you read from this?

Would it be fair to say that silver ad copper could correct to the downside because there has been such a run up, and NG could correct to the upside as it has fallen so far from it's peak?

Or can we only say that the market is expecting a further bumpy ride, and no-one is willing to take a punt as to which way they would go?

[wayneL]

Thanks for that Wayne. Will you be updating them from time to time?

markrmau, through a miracle of technology (and bandwidth robbery :sly: ) they will update automatically every day :)


About the 60% IV for silver, copper and NG.

What do you read from this?

Would it be fair to say that silver ad copper could correct to the downside because there has been such a run up, and NG could correct to the upside as it has fallen so far from it's peak?

Or can we only say that the market is expecting a further bumpy ride, and no-one is willing to take a punt as to which way they would go?

I wouldn't be willing to suggest that IV figures give any clues as to direction, in and of themselves. But they surely can be an indicator under certain circumstances.

With NG and SI, the IV's merely reflect the current statistical volatility. So no clues from IV there really.

With HG (copper) however, SV is only around 33%. So IV is WAAAAY up there. What does it mean? Could mean muppets are buying copper options with ears pinned back. It could mean writers are covering their @rse and demanding high premiums. It could mean a turn in sentiment. It could be all of those.

For me, it means stay away from copper for the moment, until some really good signal turns up, like a 2x top or something.

What we have here is an "El Toro Grande" and I agree with Stu Johnston, who coined the phrase; I wanna see some rock solid resistance before going over the top with this one :eek:

Cheers

[markrmau]

markrmau, through a miracle of technology (and bandwidth robbery :sly: ) they will update automatically every day :)
Great stuff. Thanks for that.


With HG (copper) however, SV is only around 33%. So IV is WAAAAY up there. What does it mean? Could mean muppets are buying copper options with ears pinned back. It could mean writers are covering their @rse and demanding high premiums. It could mean a turn in sentiment. It could be all of those.

I see. With copper rising almost 50% in a little under 2 months :eek: , I guess it isn't surprising.

Thanks, Mark.

[markrmau]

I see. With copper rising almost 50% in a little under 2 months
Hmmm. Copper doing the opposite to gold on comex ATM. Very bearish for copper if it looses it's USD 'safe haven' status.

[wayneL]

Hmmm. Copper doing the opposite to gold on comex ATM. Very bearish for copper if it looses it's USD 'safe haven' status.

Looking as though there is some resistance there at last.

Just been looking at seasonal and COT data and there is nothing convincing there.

I'd still prefer a reasonable selloff and a retest of the highs before I'd consider a trade with any sort of probability. :2twocents

One thing to note... these commodity markets are not like stocks. There is no natural upward bias, (apart from oil in recent years) and they can literally collapse under the weight of their own bullishness.... contrarian psycology at its purist.

You can scroll through commodity chart after chart ad naseum and see the same pattern time after time. :2twocents

[wayneL]

Jake Berstein on Copper FWIW:


Copper: My advice has been consistently bullish although
I have warned you that the days of this “mother of all bull
markets” are numbered. I DO NOT recommend long-termshort sales as yet because I do not see technical signs of a
major top as of this writing. Traders may want to consider
buying the back months of copper (i.e. December) and selling
the nearby months (July) as a bear spread when timing has
triggered such a move. When copper prices finally begin the
decline, it could be severe.
We saw a small sample of what’s to come when prices dropped
sharply on Thursday 20 April. But this is just a drop in the
bucket compared to what will yet come. The very strong recovery
after the sell-off suggested that a top has not yet been seen.
And you saw what happened thereafter. No top yet!

[wayneL]

Hi Folks

I have created a new Futures chart page which I think is a more useable format. It contains all the tradeable liquid commodities futures:

Futures Charts (http://vw-organics.netfirms.com/charts.htm)

Not Forgeting the Implied Volatilty Charts (http://vw-organics.netfirms.com/IV_charts.htm) . Options players, check out the recent levels;

Indicies at six month highs (as you would expect),

Wheat at 2 years highs, Beans at lows,

and Metals Sky freakin' high (as you would expect). Those with the cajones' will be flogging call premium like there's no tommorrow. Not me, I'm too scared :p:

But as Stuie Johnston once remarked, a full time trader is a professional coward :D

Cheers, Enjoy!

[wayneL]

As there are a few more folks interested in commodity options now I thought I'd give this a bump, and my IV charts page also has a new URL

http://sigmaoptions.netfirms.com/IVcharts/IV.htm

This will give you 2 year Implied volatility charts for selected commodities... any others I can add on request.

Cheers