AUD/USD

[traderino]

just wanted to check how aud is against usd in the last months.
well, the scenario is quite clear: medium term is still bearish and short term too.
In these days the pair is testing short term trendline (black one) for the third time, after a v-shape pattern. Moreover, the currency is facing an important area across 0,73-0,74: in fact, it has been paused a lot of times.
Maybe, a strong break of the short term trendline will let the pair run over to 0,74-0,7450 area where the medium term trendline is running.
As usual, the market will be the final judge...

cheers

[cornnfedd]

What are peoples opinions on the AUD against the USD in the next few months? Some are saying a low of .50-.55 while others believe it will bounce back to .70-.75?

I hope it bounces back. :)

[wallyt99]

Pure random guess.....

The AUD will continue to diminish for 6 months to say 57c....then gradually move up to over the next few years, eventually overtaking gaining parity on the back of the next China based commodity price boom.

[weird]

Never really paid much attention to currencies before as I don't trade fx, but looking at currency futures, interesting to see how the Euro, British Pound and Aussie seems to be in sync, and opposite with the Yen and US.

Good if planning a trip to Europe, perhaps, not so good if planning a trip to either Japan or the US. Perhaps not a trading or business perspective, but heck there is more to life.

[Kauri]

may be a mug... as opposed to a cup.. ;)
butt... a dollar is a dollar... or was until this meltdown

Cheers
...........Kauri

[Kauri]

may be a mug... as opposed to a cup.. ;)
butt... a dollar is a dollar... or was until this meltdown

Cheers
...........Kauri

a bitt of a storm in the teacup..

Cheers
............Kauri

[Kauri]

a bitt of a storm in the teacup..

Cheers
............Kauri

as my old father used to say.... in one ear and out the other... :o

Cheers
..........Kauri

[Boggo]

When is it gonna fall off its perch Kauri, I reckon its about time it headed back down to 59, its at a significant point now.

Then again I have been waiting all afternoon :confused:

[Kauri]

When is it gonna fall off its perch Kauri, I reckon its about time it headed back down to 59, its at a significant point now.

Then again I have been waiting all afternoon :confused:

my collideascope is mostly long... little ledgie forming... hope it doesn't morph into a wedgie... :eek: I'm just sitting back waiting for the market to tell me what it decides... currently.. I thunk..
Cheers
............Kauri

[Kauri]

my collideascope is mostly long... little ledgie forming... hope it doesn't morph into a wedgie... :eek: I'm just sitting back waiting for the market to tell me what it decides... currently.. I thunk..
Cheers
............Kauri

and a quick stop and reverse... will be wathig the short closely... for now anyways..

Cheers
............Kauri

[BentRod]

A gem of a trade that Cup budgie man.

nice. :)

Do you trade them often?

I can't say I have traded them.

O'neil likes em on the weeklies, that's all I know about the pattern.

Do they work well Intraday??

cheers mate

[Kauri]

and a quick stop and reverse... will be wathig the short closely... for now anyways..

Cheers
............Kauri


gave some back... I'm happy with that... me an you and a dog named Boo.. living and a working on the lam...
....must be going Lobo..

Cheers
............Kauri

[Bushman]

What are peoples opinions on the AUD against the USD in the next few months? Some are saying a low of .50-.55 while others believe it will bounce back to .70-.75?

I hope it bounces back. :)

Here's one that The Age is quoting. Probably the same muppet who said that the AUD would hit parity with the USD sometime next year.


'The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.


"I can see it certainly dropping quite sharply from here," Carlin Doyle, a London-based currency strategist at State Street Global Markets said. The Australian dollar could fall "below the 40 cent level and I can see that happening in the next year or so," he added.'

[Kauri]

The AUD/USD has been clobbered below 0.6750 in early Sydney by a large European bank. There isn"t any news to speak of, but the market is especially thin ahead of the end of month London fix later today when massive amounts in thin markets are going to have to change hands. The talk is that there will be very large USD buying flows against the EUR and AUD at the fix as portfolio managers rebalance for month-end.
The key event today for the AUD and all of the asset markets will be the BOJ decision later today. The market expects the BOJ to ease 25 BPS to 0.25% and if they don"t it would be poorly received by equity markets and put the AUD under heavy pressure again. If they do ease it should underpin equities and carry trade currencies even though the London Fix is likely to discourage any aggressive buying.

Cheers
.............Kauri

[alphaman]

The talk is that there will be very large USD buying flows against the EUR and AUD at the fix as portfolio managers rebalance for month-end.

I wonder how rebalancing works. I mean, if everyone waits until the very last day to rebalance, prices will certainly be unfavourable. If I were a portfolio manager I would have completed most of the rebalancing by now.

[Whiskers]

Here's one that The Age is quoting. Probably the same muppet who said that the AUD would hit parity with the USD sometime next year.


'The currency has dropped 31% since reaching a 25-year high of 98.49 US cents on July 16, sliding as prices of crude oil, gold and nickel declined. It reached 47.75 cents in April 2001, the lowest since it started trading freely in 1983.


"I can see it certainly dropping quite sharply from here," Carlin Doyle, a London-based currency strategist at State Street Global Markets said. The Australian dollar could fall "below the 40 cent level and I can see that happening in the next year or so," he added.'

Well, for what it's worth, There's a good morning star on the AUD/USD.

Bottoms in! :hide:

I'm tipping .77 pretty soon to fill that gap.

I don't know if anyone noticed, but there was a little morning star that kicked off the reversal of the USDX higher a few months ago too.

[Boggo]

I am in for a little run... hopefully.

30 min chart.

[BentRod]

I'm tipping .77 pretty soon to fill that gap.

You'll be waiting a while :D;)

[Boggo]

I closed out for +20, too painful to watch :(

High fifties could be looking good ?

[Whiskers]

You'll be waiting a while :D;)

Well... in a couple of weeks or so. ;)

Probably gotta go a tad lower first though. :)

[michael_selway]

Well... in a couple of weeks or so. ;)

Probably gotta go a tad lower first though. :)

Hm so are u bullish or bearish on AUD/US?

http://www.chartflow.com/chartGen/lineChartGen.asp?ccy1=AUD&ccy2=USD&days=183&typ=S&sys=oz

thx

MS

[canaussieuck]

I won't get too bullish until it breaks through the congestion area again. With everyone talking about a bounce in equities its hard to imagine that it would test 55 sooner rather than later, but thats where it needs to go in my view.

Time will tell.

Cheers,


CanOz

[Whiskers]

Well... in a couple of weeks or so. ;)

Probably gotta go a tad lower first though. :)

Oh... apparently I forgot to post my chart. :o


Hm so are u bullish or bearish on AUD/US?



I'm bullish Michael... since we have a nice Morning Star there on the bottom... but after it looks like it's done wave 2.

[arco]

.
Pips can be gathered in both directions using lower time-frame Ichimoku signals, but the long term chart has not signaled any signs of breakthrough yet.

[BentRod]

Well... in a couple of weeks or so. ;)

Probably gotta go a tad lower first though. :)

The point is, the gap at 77 does NOT exist.

Your data is bad.

Will you be revising your 77 target now?...lol :p:


I'm tipping .77 pretty soon to fill that gap.

[Whiskers]

The point is, the gap at 77 does NOT exist.

Your data is bad.

Will you be revising your 77 target now?...lol :p:

Oh... I see your ":D;)" point now.

Ha ha, no, 77 was just a talking point cos I noticed the gap there.

Not my data. Just a site that I refer to, to track the main currencies. But yeah I've noticed bad data ocassionally even on Big Charts and Incredible Charts as well as mine, ocassionally. With mine I tend to refresh the data quite often now just in case something gets corrupted.

But back to my target... as you probably saw, I mentioned the 'Morning Star' as the bottom. ;)

I'm thinking around 80ish for the short/medium term.

So... are you doubting that the AUD has bottomed or just that it won't get to 77.

Oh, btw you might also notice, I noticed a lot of Morning Stars in the last few days. (Gold and XAO threads) :D

[BentRod]

So... are you doubting that the AUD has bottomed or just that it won't get to 77.

haha.....no idea where it is going mate, looks like the line of least resistance is down though.

I'll stick to trading and leave the fortune telling to you:D

[Kauri]

Well, for what it's worth, There's a good morning star on the AUD/USD.

Bottoms in! :hide:

I'm tipping .77 pretty soon to fill that gap.

I don't know if anyone noticed, but there was a little morning star that kicked off the reversal of the USDX higher a few months ago too.

Where?

[Whiskers]

Where?

...on the USDX... I did say 'little'... but morning star none-the-less.

[noirua]

Present price AUD1.491 (0.6703 reverse) to the USD1.

I doubt the tanking of the Aussie is over yet as the commodity export reductions have not been fully factored in yet. Some companies are now seeing bad debt rising on non-payment of shipping orders.
Currency swings usually go on for a few years.
Talk of near parity with the greenback may not be realistic, but markets seem to try to test these levels anyway.

[Indie]

No doubt AUD heads higher as equities rebound. Time to exit and wait for a better entry point for the next leg down, .73ish maybe. Same with JPY. Still a good result for USD trade (for me), but very slim pickings for JPY......we live and learn. Into next year the trend for equities is still down IMO so I'll be back in to short AUD before too long......weeks or months? That's the question....weeks hopefully.

[Wysiwyg]

If the interest rate cut has been factored into the present price then the stochastic oscillator has the AUD/USD about to move up again.Note the %K at or near recent lows with %D yet to cross over.At least a reversal in my interpretation.

This is a 4H chart and is in oversold territory.This is just my interpretation.

[Whiskers]

I was just saying something similar over in the AUD thread Wysiwyg . Maybe I should be over here.

There's also a bit of positive divergence starting especially in the lower time frames.

My 'L' plate EW is looking for wave 4 anytime now and I'm thinking it probably won't get much below 61 for wave 5.

Hourly chart below.

[Glen48]

It sounds like B O is having trouble getting Bail out Mk. 10 underway...as some of the money he wants is to go for things like treating AIDS etc and they boys are not happy + China is sick of supplying the US with more loot so if USA can't get any more $$ won't the USD tank or is the USD just to strong and the lesser of all the other evils?

[Wysiwyg]

Another thing Whiskers is the trend line from 15 jan. is being questioned.Dealing in probabilities here and according to the unwritten rules, no one is allowed to be right too often. :D

Your wave 4 is inevitable too.I don`t understand how wave duration is plotted.Only after it has happened?

[Wysiwyg]

If the interest rate cut has been factored into the present price then the stochastic oscillator has the AUD/USD about to move up again.Note the %K at or near recent lows with %D yet to cross over.At least a reversal in my interpretation.

This is a 4H chart and is in oversold territory.This is just my interpretation.


Well the crossover has taken place (4H range .6248 to .6333 ) and the price is trying hard to make a reversal.Due for a yellow candle if the oscillator is worth anything.

Help Whiskers, where is that wave 4 man.

[Stormin_Norman]

i think we'll see it after the interest rate announcement tomorrow.

[Wysiwyg]

Well last post on this pair in this episode for the time being from me.How far from here is anyones guess and some probabilities may arise from somewhere else. :)

Stochastic oscillator (exponential method) using 14 day period, 3%K and 5%D on a 4 hour chart.

[Whiskers]

Well the crossover has taken place (4H range .6248 to .6333 ) and the price is trying hard to make a reversal.Due for a yellow candle if the oscillator is worth anything.

Help Whiskers, where is that wave 4 man.

I'm afraid I closed out yesterday mate. Had some eye trouble... just had some laser work today, gotta see another specialist tomorrow.

Couldn't help but have a quick look tonight first... but I think I'll stay on the sidelines until I'm able to spend some time on it.

Best guess at a quick glance, I think it may go something like this on the hourly.

[BentRod]

I took a long on the Aussie last night with reverse stops below the recent bounce on the channel(Yesterdays Lows).

Not really getting on with it so I assume reverse stops will get triggered tonight?

I think it all depends on the Euro which at this stage looks like wants to seek out all those stops hiding under the recent lows.

Aussie 4 hour:

[Wysiwyg]

Couldn't help but have a quick look tonight first... but I think I'll stay on the sidelines until I'm able to spend some time on it.

Best guess at a quick glance, I think it may go something like this on the hourly.

In the wars matey!Wishing Whiskers a brisk recovery.Thanks for your point of view.

[waz]

Can anyone explain why the Au has fallen 1.4c in the last hour?
Equity markets seem pretty stable, having slightly increased since our market close on wednesday.

Commodities are stable too.

The only news I have seen are profit downgrades and Kazakhstan Devaluing the Tenge 18%.

[Frank D]

AUD Weekly and 3-day pattern

AUD expectation is to continue down towards .5968 cents in February.

If it breaks Wednesday's lows it should hopefully gather pace the rest of this week....

Random support Wedneday's lows.

As long as price is trading below the 5-day 50% level, then my view is a continuation down.

[Kauri]

back up for a whiles... then back down to the roaring fifties... or so my Budgies say..

Cheers
...........Kauri

[Wysiwyg]

back up for a whiles... then back down to the roaring fifties... or so my Budgies say..

Cheers
...........Kauri


The late 50c`s ?? I would like to see that.First post back for awhile I see.:)

[Frank D]

AUD Monthly and Weekly charts :- Weekly report

Expectation that the AUD was going to down into February's low
hasn't played out, with the Weekly close above the Monthly 50% level.

If the double Monthly low pattern had played out into February's low then
I would begin to look for a move up towards the Quarterly 50% level:- 76cents

At this stage I'm going to treat AUD based on the Weekly highs next
week:- resistance

And for any higher move occur, I would use the Monthly 50% level as
support:- which may or may not hold

Therefore next week my view is for price to come back down into
the Monthly 50% level from resistance (weekly highs), and rotate back down
into support.

It obvious that a break above the February highs
has the potential to move towards the Quarterly
50% level @ 76cents. But I would only make that conclusion after
a double bottom , not based on this current price action.




Last Week Daily set-ups & the 3-day patterns.

Last week there were 3 high probability patterns based on the
higher timeframe trend and text-book patterns

Tuesday's up move with the break of the 3-day filter (yellow) and heading higher:- exit on higher daily close

Wednesday's reversal down from the 3-day filter.

This pattern is your holding set-up:- Monthly and Weekly trend down
and reversing from the 3-day high filter. Even though price didn't
continue down this week, that was a 'holding' set-up with the expectation
of lower prices.

Thursday's:- Day trading set-up.

A bounce off the 5-day 50% level, but only confirmed with a move
back above the 3-day filter @ 64.61 heading back towards Thursday's
highs


Friday's rally , wasn't a trading set-up, simply because of higher
timeframe dynamics.

There weren' t any Daily HOOK patterns over the higher timeframe
50% levels, unlike GBP.

In fact it was 'short' set-up because of the Monthly 50% level,
which mirrored Wednesday's reversal down.

But we would have known that the trade was failing simply because
price was moving from above the 3-day filter and above the Monthly 50% level.

[Whiskers]

AUD Monthly and Weekly charts :- Weekly report

Expectation that the AUD was going to down into February's low
hasn't played out...

No, indeed it didn't Frank... and I've been scratching my head and everything else trying to figure it out, since I got stopped out umpteen times trying to go short.


It obvious that a break above the February highs
has the potential to move towards the Quarterly
50% level @ 76cents. But I would only make that conclusion after
a double bottom , not based on this current price action.

The conclusion I have come too (at least for now) is that the larger wave 4 on the daily ((4) on the hourly) has completed and wave 5 is under way with a minor retracement about due to take it back to about the 65's.

Two reasons; wave 5 has progressed more than 61.8% of 4 and it bounced nicely off the trend line under the low and my wave 2... and actually there's three reasons... that's a darn good Morning Star coming off that bottom.

I note some are calling my 1,2,3 an abc looking to go lower into the 40's.

My hourly chart includes the last 6 or so candles of the daily.

Anyone still betting on sub 60's?

[BentRod]

back up for a whiles... then back down to the roaring fifties... or so my Budgies say..

Cheers
...........Kauri


BudgieMan:eek7:

Where have you been?

I (and a few others) have missed your posts!

Hope all is well mate.

Bent.

[BentRod]

Whiskers.....wave four overlapping wave one again.

Why don't you go join The Chartist if you want to learn EW?

[Phillip]

I like to keep my trading very simple.

I think the AUD will come down to the 15 minute 200 ma in the 6550 region and I shall seek a bounce here. I certainly feel it is a short, but not a steep one and profits need to be taken on the uptrend line in my humble opion in view of going long at the 200ma.

[Kauri]

An obvious 5 wave impulse down... now correcting... I would like to see a 38% min correction before the next major move... mayhaps
Cheers
.............Kauri

[Frank D]

AUD Weekly and spiral filter

As per morning reports:- higher opens and expectation of a pullback.

AUD pushed upwards on Friday shifting the Weekly 50% level to .6755

Higher Weekly open and looking for a move back down into the February 50% level @ 6565 Random support.

At this stage I’m not convinced that the Monthly 50% level is a robust support
zone that’s going to send the AUD higher.

Therefore I would need to verify support by exiting shorts, and only then trade longs from a lower daily open rising upwards from support levels.

Partial exit + 85

[Whiskers]

Whiskers.....wave four overlapping wave one again.

Why don't you go join The Chartist if you want to learn EW?

Oops... yes actually the '1 ?' is a text label that just floats along at the same position on the page. I was initially watching for a diagonal triangle on the hourly and hadn't adjusted it. Mostly use the 5 and 1 minute to scalp and look at the hourly and daily for those longer runs that I was getting stopped out of.

Thanks for the chartist tip. He sure has some loyal supporters. Quite a few have tipped him... and I offered a challenge on the gold thread once to see if he could do better than me, in which case I would seriously consider subscribing... but I think I was holding my own OK and he faded away from posting there.

I should mention again here that I don't rely on EW. I am a fundamentalist that uses TA for short term moves and really only use EW to try to get a handle on the size of moves, to set targets.


An obvious 5 wave impulse down... now correcting... I would like to see a 38% min correction before the next major move... mayhaps
Cheers
.............Kauri

Yeaah... I thought so too for awhile kauri.

Btw, good to see you back. Need more 'colourful' gentlemen like you around here.

I'm also considering the possibility that it's a 5 x 5 abc to 6008. The main reason is more fundamental, that if the USD tanks the AUD should fare better off because the % of GDP that Aus is committing to so called stimulus packages is far less than the US and similarly with China our major trading partner.

So if metal prices have bottomed and continue to firm modestly and China's domestic consumption improves along with other nations as the world becomes less reliant on the US, I think it's a distinct possibility, almost probability that the AUD will continue to firm.

I pretty much agree with Frank and Phillip in that if 65ish support is busted it'll need re-evaluating.

Also noteing kaui's possibility that it needs to retrace further... that probably makes my wave 3 a larger degree A and you are left with the same problem I have atm with my wave 4 which would need to be B... ie in both scenerios they are corrective.

Just as a matter of interest, I've labeled numerically until it's obviously corrective or impulsive as more waves unfold. To that end Rod you may be able to chart up your wave count for your wave 1, my wave 4(daily).

I'm having trouble with that fitting a wave 1 atm... but I'm watching all possibilities cos if we are in a wave c of 2 or new larger degree wave 1, or 1 of a larger degree C, atm it's still a minor impulse wave. Maybe what it does in the next few days will make the bigger picture clearer.

[Whiskers]

Whiskers.....wave four overlapping wave one again.

Oops... yes actually the '1 ?' is a text label that just floats along at the same position on the page. I was initially watching for a diagonal triangle on the hourly and hadn't adjusted it.

Just realised you may have been referring to the daily count. :o

Same as above... considering all possibilities, including (although I think unlikely) that it may turn out to be an a,b,c,d,e triangle... so just go numerically or with '?' until it shows it clear intentions

[Phillip]

Well I am finding the AUD cross really intriguing and have covered my short and gone long. The question is considering resistance becomes support and vice versa is that old gann-like resistance line - now becoming support?

All very fascinating.

[IFocus]

An obvious 5 wave impulse down... now correcting... I would like to see a 38% min correction before the next major move... mayhaps
Cheers
.............Kauri

Kauri great to see you back hope all's well

[Whiskers]

Getting near decision time.

Is it going to crack 78 or sink?

[Stormin_Norman]

68?

the USD weakness would suggest its going to give it a good shake.

[canaussieuck]

Kauri great to see you back hope all's well

Ditto that, good to have you back Kauri.

CanOz

[Whiskers]

well I took 6796... a bird in ther hand is worth two in the bush.

See whether I should get on again if it keeps going. Must be due for a bit of a pull back soon.

PS: Yeah Norman, I was monitoring the DX-h9, 1M... with a case of parkinsons disease (the shakes) for about 13 minutes... got me a bit jittery too wondering which way it was gonna swing :o

PPS: Just got a full hand of sell signals. Probably look to go south for a bit next.

[Whiskers]

68?



Sorry Norman... I should have explained.

It's all about the big EW debate, which wave count.

It took out yesterdays high but not quite the 19th Jan high... so have to have a bit of a think about the EW implications of that.

[Frank D]

AUD Weekly

Same pattern as yesterday but this time helped by price being pushed
down by the 3-day filter.

I still have the view of the AUD heading back toward February's 50% level before any up move.

However those who want to watch for any long positions on Tuesday,
price would need to bounce off the 5-day 50% level @ 6649 and then
break above the 3-day filter @ 6766

As it will probably push the AUD up towards the Weekly highs 69+

At this stage that's not a set-up to trade longs, it's just something to
keep an eye on if trading during the GMT-US timezone.

If price had already bounced off the monthly 50% level and this exact
same pattern was occuring then you would be looking to BUY the 5-day
50% level and add longs above the 3-day filter:- breakout.

Stick to shorting and manage positions:- partial exit +68

[Wysiwyg]

Dropped 2 cents in about 3/4 of an hour, tanking with the DOW.Opportunity stations folks. :eek:

[noirua]

Sinking below the waves again at 64.90 (1.541 reverse) against the USD.

[Stormin_Norman]

bernanke's speech this morning (dont know what he said) has lifted the USD greatly.

[GumbyLearner]

bernanke's speech this morning (dont know what he said) has lifted the USD greatly.

Bernanke live on c-span now

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/watch.aspx?MediaId=HP-R-15283

[Wysiwyg]

Bernanke live on c-span now

http://www.c-span.org/Watch/watch.aspx?MediaId=HP-R-15283


Always wanted to listen into these sessions but couldn`t find a live video feed.Thanks Gumby.

[Stormin_Norman]

thanks gumby.

[GumbyLearner]

thanks gumby.

No worries fellas. The best always comes straight from the horses mouth. IMO

[Frank D]

AUD Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD completes the move down into the February 50% level and
Tuesday’s lows @ .6530

If AUD is rising higher then around these levels the AUD should find
support, but I’m not expecting a rally up off this level.

In fact whilst below the 5-day 50% level there is an expectation of
another down day into Wednesday’s lows.

At this stage it’s too early to be going long on the AUD.

Therefore for those who think the AUD is going higher, then I would wait
1 more day and then make a decision after that: Perferrably the close of
the trading week on Friday will give a much clearer view.

Because at this stage I'm favouring my view from last week, lower prices
in February, and if it is below .6565 next week it will probably go lower.

Wednesday's 50% level and blue filter resistance with
the expectation that price is following the weekly trend down
into Wednesday's lows

[sinner]

Hi Frank D,

Not trading this pair at the moment but grateful for your continued analysis.

[Glen48]

This bail out must be the last shot for B.O. so if this fails ( which it will) the USD should rally for awhile and then be all down hill from then on????

[Phillip]

It's a little tedious to trade at this stage, as I am a simple classic chartist I generally look for oversold value. I am keeping an eye on 65c for a long entry, but perhaps I have missed the boat as the pair has held the .618 ratio and bounced off it, which is generally a bullish sign. Seeking to catch it at the blue eclipse.

[Kauri]

Still tonking on... trading each move on its merits... adapting the mindset from easy?? big moves to the smaller more management-needy type enviroment as the big "I'm smarter the market.. this is easy money" type moves fade away... redor white... who cares... so long as it is wet and cold..

Cheers
.........Kauri

[Whiskers]

I am keeping an eye on 65c for a long entry...

Seeking to catch it at the blue eclipse.

Looking like a pretty good call there phillip.

On my 5 min Chart things look like coming to a head around 6515/20.

Good bollinger squeeze on the hourly and the DX has been trending up as well.

Something's going to break soon I think.

[Frank D]

Weekly and 5-day pattern

AUD closes below the February 50% level @ .6565.

As pointed out in yesterday's report I would wait 1 more day if looking
for longs, even though everything looks bearish atm.

There is nothing to suggest the AUD is going higher, but there is a
pattern that will give the first sign that this week's down move has stalled.

If the trend is going to continue down then the blue filter @ 6525 is going to define whether price moves down into Thursday’s lows and continues with the trend.

Or moves back towards the 3-day filter (yellow @ 6635)

The 3-day filter is always viewed as resistance until broken.

However, if the Monthly 50% level is going to be a valid support zone
even though price is trading below it, then the 3-day
filter needs to breakout @ 6635.

If that’s going to happen it’s more than likely to happen during the US timezone.

The Trend is down and expectation is to continue down, but the 3-day
filter breakout is the first sign that a reversal pattern is taking place.

Above 6635 and the view is price is heading back towards the Weekly
50% level.

In the short-term Thursday's trend guide should be defined by 6525.

[AbundantIncome]

hmmmm ... AUD/USD 0.0060 spread ... how do be in profit if we get in during that spread ??? :D

i seem to get caught a lot in my demo trading so far ... it is trending as per chart but i was still in a loss position .. make me wonder hard hmmmmm

so do people buy market prices or limits only ???

thanks

[Frank D]

Depends on the money management techniques.

If you are willing to run wider stops than normal, as many
position-swing traders do then they are more likely to trade at limit prices.

For those who wait for certain patterns and use intra-day filtering
techniques they normally trade @ market prices.

I prefer to trade at market prices.

Personally I think that Asian timezone traders have got it lucky
because there is an abundance of trading opportunities that start from
the next trading day around 11am here based on the mid-night GMT
timezone.

But we might not get all the trends because they kick into gear from
Euro and US timezones, but it can set-up you if you apply some chart reading skills.

Today was the first day that price opened above my filter @ 6525 so the bias was to look for a long trade again the trend.

Because i'm trading against the grain on this trade, I would tighten my exit strategies to a single 41 pip range and then run stops below today's lows.

And see if 6635 breaks or not, but i'll be waiting a long time for that to happen.

[Phillip]

hmmmm ... AUD/USD 0.0060 spread ... how do be in profit if we get in during that spread ??? :D

i seem to get caught a lot in my demo trading so far ... it is trending as per chart but i was still in a loss position .. make me wonder hard hmmmmm

so do people buy market prices or limits only ???

thanks


I trade purely on limits with 30 pip stop loss.

[Kauri]

and Nadal thinks he has a problem with wedgies..

Cheers
...........Kauri

[fapturbo]

Looks like a nice clean retracement ready to be sold into...

http://img14.imageshack.us/img14/7728/14213224ah5.jpg

[BentRod]

haha....Now you talking Fapy :D :xyxthumbs

Aussie is close to breaching that channel on the Daily chart.

Fourth touch usually does it IMHO.

[fapturbo]

Retest 0.6350ish is looking likely.

Retest of 0.60c possible.

:eek:

[fapturbo]

Potentially 0.5250 is not out of the question, give the current pattern that is forming...

http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/2289/33560350fk4.jpg

[Glen48]

Gold going up trust in the USD going down...this is the start of a new World.

[canaussieuck]

That pattern may not be completely formed yet FAP....you could see a bounce off that it, not a break. Be prepared for both.

Cheers,

CanOz

[sinner]

Hi guys,

Looks like all the pairs are gearing up for their next big move. We are seeing charting signals everywhere (for example descending wedge on this pair although it could still go for a few days), and lots of traders are commenting to me they are looking for a signal to go long!

Are we in for a bear market retracement for currencies against the USD?

My own strategy is sounding alarm bells as the moving averages for this pair begin to bunch together on the daily and hourly. Even the bollinger bands are starting to look like they want to move with the wedge lines.

[Stormin_Norman]

im a USD bear. i think their currency could be up for a large scale tank if the bond bubble bursts.

[Wysiwyg]

We are seeing charting signals everywhere (for example descending wedge on this pair although it could still go for a few days), and lots of traders are commenting to me they are looking for a signal to go long!


Is that at Xaviers School for Gifted Traders. :p:

[Whiskers]

Yes, I'm with the USD bears too.

I'm still leaning towards the diagonal impulse count, but have not dismissed the corrective ABC yet though. I seems to me that both scenerios are going north for some time yet.

I'll only be considering the 50's if 7547 is breached to invalidate the diagonal impulse count.

Hope to get a clearer picture as we get nearer... but if it peaks below 7547 both scenerios are still in play and it's time for closer evaluation.

But in the meantime I'm thinking 73ish should be a pretty safe bet.

PS: I'm still curious to see the minor wave count of the B wave (my 4) in the corrective scenerio. The corrective count charts I've seen show the B at the low (my minor 3). Damned if I can figure that.

[Whiskers]

My minor counts are close to a minor 'i' on the above chart... took profit at 6539.

My next lower count has 6582 as max for 'i' and been pretty range bound the last half hour or so while I've been trying to decide whether it's already there or is gonna have another little push up.

PS: Was thinking of going short the retracement and going long again around 65 or slightly under... but literally caught in two minds in the middle atm... but with it just starting to chop a bit and dancing pretty close to the tune of the AUD/JPY lately and I'm getting sell signals off that as well... humm... !

[Whiskers]

Geesus... what a hectic night. By the time I considered any alternative counts the action dismissed them.

Ended up concluding a larger zig zag correction to test 64.

[Whiskers]

Well... make that an ABC expanded Flat... but anyway, it breached 64. :)

Been out doing other things, just come in and looking to go long again... the Euro looks like probably bottomed for now, but the AUD seems to be dancing closer to the tune of JPY lately and I'm not sure it's bottomed yet.

Twiddle de, twiddle dum...

[Whiskers]

Here it goes... coming back for a third look at 6380.

The JPY still hasn't settled... might go a touch below 6380 yet, but not a lot of room to play with. If 6330 goes I'm back to the drawing board. :(

[Phillip]

Getting to a level where the AUD is becoming an attractive risk/reward play here. The Aussie is pinned against the RBA and at what stage the monetary easing cycle is currently at. The daily is trading in a large wedge where supply/demand is jostling for power; a decent move could be somewhat imminent. The Interbank market has already priced in a 25 basis cut and gunning for 50. If the RBA cuts 50 basis points on Tuesday I think more downside is to come. Probably .6250 as first stop, then .6075 if things deteriorate further. Hard to see it breaking below that wedge though.

[noirua]

im a USD bear. i think their currency could be up for a large scale tank if the bond bubble bursts.
Will the Aussie tank be even greater though?

[fapturbo]

Will the Aussie tank be even greater though?

What happens will largely depend on what happens to the DJIA.

As more and more money leaves equities more and more money will go to Government Bonds, pushing more money into USD.

Like Stormin said when the Treasury Bond Bursts, then we will see some real big moves I suspect.

Trend is down, no point trying to pick a bottom, follow the overall trend. Sell the rallies...

[Iron Man]

Hi people

I am a nebbie in Forex so new that I haven't even traded it yet.

Whats the best platform to trade with and does Forex behave well like shares or is it all over place?.

Cheers

IronMan

[Iron Man]

lol NEWBIE

[canaussieuck]

lol NEWBIE

At least you can laugh at yourself mate! Well done.

Go to http://fxtrade.oanda.com/forex_trading/fxgame/fxgame_beta.shtml

This is Oanda's GX Game. Have play with this and then come back a week later.

See what the highest % profit you can make with the Game is in one week.

Theres heaps of info here on FX, drop by other threads for specific ideas or answers to questions.

Have fun mate.

CanOz

[canaussieuck]

Potentially 0.5250 is not out of the question, give the current pattern that is forming...

http://img26.imageshack.us/img26/2289/33560350fk4.jpg

I reckon this scenario is not out of the question you know....its not real encouraging price action for AUD bulls, thats for sure.

Cheers,


CanOz

[fapturbo]

Downleg is starting.

Next Stop is 0.60c ish

[noirua]

Downleg is starting.

Next Stop is 0.60c ish
Yes, 63.1c (inverse AU$1.587) to AU$1.

[BentRod]

They are buying it all the way down too.

RBA will most likely intervene at 62.50 if it gets there.

[Glen48]

What hope do you have when USA got us into this mess and the USD is the winner......for awhile anyway.

[caribean]

What hope do you have when USA got us into this mess and the USD is the winner......for awhile anyway.

Things will turn around again soon enough, Oil will go up, Usd will go down, and even equities will stabilise...just don't ask me when:)

[Stormin_Norman]

Things will turn around again soon enough, Oil will go up, Usd will go down, and even equities will stabilise...just don't ask me when:)

markets need sign posts. itd make it a lot easier to make money :p:

[caribean]

markets need sign posts. itd make it a lot easier to make money :p:
Yes for sure!! :D
seriously though, trading intraday makes longer term predictions, almost, unimportant, we trade what we see.

[Glen48]

I would be happy with a Red and green light and lots of U turns.

[Phillip]

Getting to a level where the AUD is becoming an attractive risk/reward play here. The Aussie is pinned against the RBA and at what stage the monetary easing cycle is currently at. The daily is trading in a large wedge where supply/demand is jostling for power; a decent move could be somewhat imminent. The Interbank market has already priced in a 25 basis cut and gunning for 50. If the RBA cuts 50 basis points on Tuesday I think more downside is to come. Probably .6250 as first stop, then .6075 if things deteriorate further. Hard to see it breaking below that wedge though.


At the risk of sounding a know-it-all. I just want to point out that fundamentals play a huge part in currencies even though all technical indicators point to the opposite direction. The RBA didn't cut.. this is astonishing and traders out there can not come to grips with it, in my view it should rally for at least two days, so watch the pullbacks.

[canaussieuck]

At the risk of sounding a know-it-all. I just want to point out that fundamentals play a huge part in currencies even though all technical indicators point to the opposite direction. The RBA didn't cut.. this is astonishing and traders out there can not come to grips with it, in my view it should rally for at least two days, so watch the pullbacks.

Hmmm, depends on what the traders are using to trade it, my system picked up the trade and a few others this morning. The AUD trade was active before the announcement. This system is currently testing on the simulator, so don't get too excited, its not real money folks.

Trailing stop following up nicely, hope it survives the next open.

Cheers,


CanOz

[Stormin_Norman]

that a manual system? or are u coding in OandA's autotrader language?

[canaussieuck]

that a manual system? or are u coding in OandA's autotrader language?

Manual, taking the signals as they appear until we can forward test it on Amibroker. I might be trading it like this for a few months yet.

Cheers,


CanOz

[Page]

Short term (Intraday)

0,6411. AUD USD broke 0, 6350 resistance. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. Forex Trend 4H, daily is in a bearish pattern. 1H Modified Stochastic indicates a bullish force on AUD USD. The price should carry on moving in 0, 6300 / 0, 6450 range.
We will not obtain a position. There is no trade pattern.

Resistances
0,6450 - 0,6550

Supports
0,6365 - 0,6300

[Stormin_Norman]

Short term (Intraday)

0,6411. AUD USD broke 0, 6350 resistance. The volatility rises. Bollinger bands are deviated. Forex Trend 4H, daily is in a bearish pattern. 1H Modified Stochastic indicates a bullish force on AUD USD. The price should carry on moving in 0, 6300 / 0, 6450 range.
We will not obtain a position. There is no trade pattern.

Resistances
0,6450 - 0,6550

Supports
0,6365 - 0,6300

reference = mataf?

[BentRod]

reference = mataf?

Sure looks ( http://www.google.com.au/search?hl=en&safe=off&rlz=1C1GGLS_enAU291AU303&q=0,6411.+AUD+USD+broke+0,+6350+resistance&btnG=Search&meta=) like it Norm.

Along with every single post he has made, its all copy and pasted without source.

[Stormin_Norman]

im quite proud of myself picking that out actually.

ill give myself a beer.

[canaussieuck]

Struth! I f you don't like the price action ,wait a minute:eek:

Must be the GDP ann? Rate negative i take it?:D

Interesting times indeed.

CanOz

[Stormin_Norman]

-0,5%

[Aussiejeff]

-0,5%

At long last - a flamin' economic reality check.

Let's see KruddBank 'n Co. talk this one up....:cool:

[Stormin_Norman]

its only going to get worse with these jokers giving bogans tens of billions of public money.

[alphatraderx]

Shorted AUDUSD at 0.7030
Stop level at 0.7120
Target level at 0.6943

[sinner]

Shorted AUDUSD at 0.7030
Stop level at 0.7120
Target level at 0.6943

Hi alphatraderx, please correct me if I'm wrong but this looks like at best a 1Risk(90):1Reward(87) trade.

These are the same odds as taking your money to the casino and betting it all on black.

Why do you expect people to pay for your "advice" on such trades?

Surely I am either mistaken or you are kidding.

[Stormin_Norman]

it did come through.

if expectancy is higher then risk the method can be ok.

[sinner]

Fair enough, guess he wasn't asking anyone to take the trade, was just posting his position.

I was a bit surprised is all, because I took a similar trade 15 minutes prior to alphatraderxs post based on bearish divergence on the 15m stochastic plus a "hunch" that the same news spike which played out across a bunch of currencies wouldn't hold for long.

My Risk:Reward was 1:2.25 and got it all too. Sorry alpha if I discouraged you, I could never take such a trade myself, maybe I'm just jealous :D

[i_in]

to take a short position in this trend
I just sounds my ridiculous
gl&gt

[sinner]

A healthy trend will always pull back a little before the next leg up :)

If the signal pops up, and looks good, why not take it?

[i_in]

the trend is up
I think it is better to wait and to take in the right direction
matter of MM

[SoBadAtTrading]

Trend is up on the hourly. May retest the 70.5c resistance.

[Underpants Gnome]

Anyone else short on this? I got in at .7040, it's seen a fair bit of reaction in the past. Targeting the previous drop down to ~.6060. I'm a complete n00b though so we'll probably see it hit .71+ soon :D

[Underpants Gnome]

Well, as predicted we've gone up over .71! My 60 pip target (.6977) was missed by 2 pips. If I wasn't on a limited risk account with IG I probably would have made it, because the guaranteed stops add 3 pips to the spread so my entry was .7037 instead of .704, but it was still close anyway. So my 20-pip trailing stop was hit and I closed at .7017 for a 1R profit instead.

Immediate next point of resistance appears to be ~.7160.

[AbundantIncome]

so what is the story with AUDUSD ? ... been rising rapidly and now in the decline ???

my daily chart and 4 hourly chart seem to indicate an uprising event !

what's your chart telling us ? :D

[white_goodman]

the daily had a pretty obvious pin... im short

[AbundantIncome]

the daily had a pretty obvious pin... im short

pin ???

[white_goodman]

pin ???

yeh heres a pretty crude chart i got online....

its plain to see, some call it an evening star/pin...

[AbundantIncome]

yeh heres a pretty crude chart i got online....

its plain to see, some call it an evening star/pin...

i see, i do not understand the significance i guess ...

i tend to follow very simple patterns .. too much i find myself cannot get in or get out :(

thanks for pointing that out though

[Stormin_Norman]

buyers were looking to push it up. heavy selling pushed it back down again.

who'll win the battle?

[white_goodman]

buyers were looking to push it up. heavy selling pushed it back down again.

who'll win the battle?

if anything its a sign that the current up-move will halt and move sideways or downwards, look for other bearish PA to confirm

[MrWhite]

I've just jumped out at lunch time, looks like a flat day.

[Mr J]

the trend is up
I think it is better to wait and to take in the right direction
matter of MM

A pullback for one is a trend for another :).

[AbundantIncome]

my daily chart still gives me a great positive uptrend ... may not be a strong one though still positive ..., 4 hourly still gives positive signal ... even the five minutes chart is looking to test the upside so ...

anybody has a good indication on the best pips to take loss on without being whipped by the swing then moved into your direction again ???

any research on this ???

my stop loss strategy is kinda whimsy at the moment, first the system like IB does not seem to work. I put a stop loss, but the pair has been exceeded and still no sign of being executed !!!

i like the idea of trailing stop loss to move up against the profit movement, but again not sure in real life how practical it is .. sometimes a great idea is not that practical in real life ...

[>Apocalypto<]

A pullback for one is a trend for another :).

very well said, oh so true.

:bigthumb::bigthumb:

[>Apocalypto<]

AUD 1 hour

with the positive divergence on the MACD and the price bouncing off the nominal line (blue center line) looking for the price to continue higher to .7320 - .7340. with a turn around to the nominal line.

the top two lines are the target area for a short position if the price does reach these two extremes.

cheers,

[Apollo_kk]

Apocolypto

Looks like 733 is holding so I reckon that we are looking at a move down to 728.

[Forex Journal]

AUD/USD – The market continues to chop around within a very broad 0.6000-0.7400 range dating back to October 2008. Despite the recent strength and break to fresh 2009 highs, the overall structure remains grossly bearish and given the proximity to the range highs, we like the idea of looking for opportunities to be short in anticipation of retest of the range lows at minimum. A break back below 0.7000 should help to accelerate declines and confirm bearish resumption. Strategy: SIDELINED; AWAIT CLEARER SIGNAL.

[Dowdy]

Forex Journal, where did you get that info from?

I'm new to the forex game and i want to try and find a website that shows analysis like the one you posted

[i_in]

Forex Journal, where did you get that info from?

I'm new to the forex game and i want to try and find a website that shows analysis like the one you posted

hey Dowdy
don't be fooled, this one is not analysis, this is just a synopsis! what you think to do with it?!

[Stormin_Norman]

Forex Journal, where did you get that info from?

I'm new to the forex game and i want to try and find a website that shows analysis like the one you posted

try here: https://www.thelfb-forex.com/

[MrWhite]

Did anyone ride the jump today when unemployment was announced.

I got the RBA's decision Tuesday, but not today's.

[adamj123]

Did anyone ride the jump today when unemployment was announced.

I got the RBA's decision Tuesday, but not today's.

Yes, but I rode it the wrong way :confused:

[MrWhite]

Did you sell before the announcement, expecting it to go down? Or just misinterpret the news?

Just curious as I always wait for the release, scan it quickly and then choose an action.

I am just curious if others read the media buzz and jump before the announcement.

[Stormin_Norman]

i sold on rumour, and got out on the news (or just before it).

my system gave me trades going down, so i took them. i dont usually trade news, been burnt too badly in the past- i just stick to my system.

[AbundantIncome]

how are we going with this ?

down a fair bit now ... is it up time ??? :d

[AbundantIncome]

how are we going with this ?

down a fair bit now ... is it up time ??? :d

up and down up and down . show some trend already :banghead:

[Underpants Gnome]

up and down up and down . show some trend already :banghead:

What time frame are you looking at? If you look at the daily or hourly charts I'd say there's been a fairly strong uptrend since early March.

[AbundantIncome]

What time frame are you looking at? If you look at the daily or hourly charts I'd say there's been a fairly strong uptrend since early March.

I am looking at 5 minutes and one hour and i play short term only .. thanks :d

I am a little impatient looking at too long time :d

[MrWhite]

20 pips of movement today on the 5 minute average if you are day trading.

There was a nice drop from 76.04 to 75.70 about 14:30 that has swung up and down since.

Flat on anything longer term though.

[AbundantIncome]

20 pips of movement today on the 5 minute average if you are day trading.

There was a nice drop from 76.04 to 75.70 about 14:30 that has swung up and down since.

Flat on anything longer term though.

I am pretty new to this and am nervous trader so I cannot do swing trading as yet :d

so, what is the chart telling us today ? has the oversold come to an end for AUD/USD ?

some upside movement but seems to be quite a nervous one :d

any news on usa economy ???

[Wysiwyg]

Anyone get shafted by that gap down on this pair? Went past my long trades stop and I had a crash and burn instantly. I got the hex on me, now I know for sure. :(

[Wysiwyg]

Anyone get shafted by that gap down on this pair? Went past my long trades stop and I had a crash and burn instantly. I got the hex on me, now I know for sure. :(


That`s it. They closed the long trades at about 100 pips down and wiped out my small account. 12 pip initial stop loss but not guaranteed. Should have been short. Life is crappy. :mad:

[Largesse]

thats sh!t house :(

i was going to a movie and took profits on my 4 short contracts about 5 minutes before it gapped down. best part of 7 grand missed :(

[Naked shorts]

thats sh!t house :(

i was going to a movie and took profits on my 4 short contracts about 5 minutes before it gapped down. best part of 7 grand missed :(

lol, should have placed a trailing stop ey!

btw, at least you were short..i was long.

[Largesse]

lol, should have placed a trailing stop ey!

btw, at least you were short..i was long.

IG markets and trailing stop just don't work well together i've found :D

sorry to hear about your long... got roasted

[Largesse]

IG markets and trailing stop just don't work well together i've found :D

sorry to hear about your long... got roasted

further to this,

at least new terminator movie was worth it :D:D:D

so much man love for christian bale

[Naked shorts]

further to this,

at least new terminator movie was worth it :D:D:D

so much man love for christian bale

Didnt get too roasted, was partly hedged.


I wasn't originally going to see it, but seeing you liked it, i will.

Check out on youtube, christian bale going nuts on Terminator film set
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=zuJCGGTPY5w&feature=related

I should also add that his acting in American Psycho is some of the best I have seen.

[Wysiwyg]

thats sh!t house :(

i was going to a movie and took profits on my 4 short contracts about 5 minutes before it gapped down. best part of 7 grand missed :(

Would have been a nice pick-up for an extra 30 minute hold.;)

There are probably thousands of similar stories to ours. I too was short a few times in the preceding hour. Didn`t tank when I had them though.

[James Austin]

apologies for this basic question, but what are the best hours for trading (day trading) AUDUSD?

and, if its through the aussie night, what hours are best for during aussie day time?

thanks

JA

[lasty]

apologies for this basic question, but what are the best hours for trading (day trading) AUDUSD?

and, if its through the aussie night, what hours are best for during aussie day time?

thanks

JA

What are you trying to achieve?

AUD is fairly liquid from say 7.00am Sydney time until the end of London close.
You then encounter issues until when Sydney open again.
NY can be very illiquid once London goes home.

[James Austin]

i want to find some FX pairs to trade during aussie day time
thinking about: audusd, audus, cadus



What are you trying to achieve?

AUD is fairly liquid from say 7.00am Sydney time until the end of London close.
You then encounter issues until when Sydney open again.
NY can be very illiquid once London goes home.

[lasty]

i want to find some FX pairs to trade during aussie day time
thinking about: audusd, audus, cadus

Ok
Well AUD/USD is a recognised traded currency pair, so is AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD
The reason being is that actual high volume of trading (export/imports) take place and there are price makers in those crosses which means liquidity.
Now AUD/CAD,AUD/EUR,AUD/GBP are currency pairs but are really synthetic pricing.

So AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD in Aussie day time will keep you occupied and the economic data from NZ and Japan is reported in our trading hours which is a bonus.

I always question people who trade EUR, GBP, CHF for example when the liquidity is thinner and the data doesnt come out in this timezone.

[James Austin]

thanks there lasty, seems there's some decent choice during aus day hrs, which works better for me.




Ok
Well AUD/USD is a recognised traded currency pair, so is AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD
The reason being is that actual high volume of trading (export/imports) take place and there are price makers in those crosses which means liquidity.
Now AUD/CAD,AUD/EUR,AUD/GBP are currency pairs but are really synthetic pricing.

So AUD/JPY and AUD/NZD in Aussie day time will keep you occupied and the economic data from NZ and Japan is reported in our trading hours which is a bonus.

I always question people who trade EUR, GBP, CHF for example when the liquidity is thinner and the data doesnt come out in this timezone.

[solomon]

Something big has just happened in the AUD/USD! Wow 83.3!

[Qed]

something happened early in the day .. went up all day . trick is how do u get on early enuf

[Stormin_Norman]

rba upbeat on economy and looking to raise interest rates.

[acouch]

aud fut..in a nice uptrend..
ac;)

[>Apocalypto<]

aud fut..in a nice uptrend..
ac;)

HUH?

what time frame price on spot is making lower highs and lows

:confused:

[Mr J]

Looks like 4hr.

[Tradesurfer]

Thought I'd post the link to a map overlay of when various market centers are open and liquidity. Its a broad representation so doesn't help with say a particular currency (AUD/NZD) and best times for that but thought it might be helpful- it is listed in Eastern Time(New York) so you'll have to do the conversion

http://www.gftforex.com/forex/forex-trading-hours.asp

[Lachlan6]

Despite a number of analysts talking up the prospects of the AUD/USD, alluding to a recovery in resources and base metals and a slowly increasing risk appetite, one look at the Elliott Wave form is shouting out an opposing view. I expect the currency will now collapse, with a medium term target back down at
$0.60.

A look at the daily chart displaying the last three years, clearly displays a strong five-wave impulse off the highs of around $0.98. This move took around three months, yet the following correction back up has only retraced about 61.8% and has taken over three times longer. This is a three-wave correction, which in my view walked the last steps last week. Within the larger wave c, we can see a clear five-wave move and on the hourly chart, the currency looks as though it is now giving up the ghost. I expect a five-wave impulse to take hold early next week and to me this will be enough evidence to say that the AUD/USD is now heading south with a vengeance once again.

I am preparing for a short trade placing my initial stop just above the high on the 13th of August and my medium term target is down at $0.60.

[Wysiwyg]

I heard Rob Prechter from Elliot Wave International on Bloomberg this morning say the USD is likely for a run.

[Wysiwyg]

I heard Rob Prechter from Elliot Wave International on Bloomberg this morning say the USD is likely for a run.Right so far. AUD/USD down 100 pips since then and 82c support for a while. Pair following the DOW though so nothing unusual here.

[white_goodman]

this is where the smart money is setting up....

blue = commercials, they say south....

[Naked shorts]

this is where the smart money is setting up....

blue = commercials, they say south....
Just wait for the commercials stop loss run ;)

[Mr J]

Interesting chart, but how did you get that data and how reliable is it?

Edit: okay, "Commitment of Traders" reports. Never even knew they existed, I'll have to take a look at them.

[Trembling Hand]

this is where the smart money is setting up....

blue = commercials, they say south....

You sure you know who the commercials are?

[white_goodman]

Just wait for the commercials stop loss run ;)

yeh not always the greatest timing 'indicator'

[white_goodman]

You sure you know who the commercials are?

like hedgers'n'shi.t

[Oromis]

My bias is currently south on this pair and in a short atm.

[Mr J]

Interesting point we're at, same with the Euro.

[cashflow_08]

Resistance become support, now pushing the price higher after several retest on the new inclined support.
Strong indications of long.

[i_in]

so, for the last, up or down. i read recently some folks buy usd for long time :dunno:

[cashflow_08]

In my opinion, we are still up (long). This may be a slight retracement down before bouncing up. T/p is what im not sure about. Im long now, so i would take profit near the nearest s/r which is 70 pips away from now. s/l= 53 pips (last HL). Get in quick and get out quick. lol

[cashflow_08]

Aussie potential to move 0.90300 ?

[GMS]

Good Afternoon,

please find below my daily spot AUD analysis, based on market profile and cap flow charting.

Cheers.

The Australian Dollar rotated higher to key level 0.8758 early in the overnight session. Responsive selling at this level rejected the advance taking the market back inside the established development for the remainder of the session.

Today the market triggered an initiating buy tail of 0.8739 which was the previous session point of control. The market distributed higher where a responsive selling capped the advance, and is developing in a range mid 0.8740's to 0.8772.

A continuation of the distribution higher opens to resistance at 0.8814/20 and 0.8875. Initial support is at 0.8739 the commencement of the initiating buy tail today, then 0.8689 and mid 0.8650’s.

Have a good night.




Aliom Pty Limited (ACN 123 876 291 AFSL 323182) does not warrant the accuracy, completeness or correctness of any information herein. In preparing this post, Aliom Pty Limited has not taken into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular person. Before making an investment decision on the basis of information in this post you should consider whether the information is appropriate in light of your particular investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs. You may wish to consult a licenced advisor or accountant to assist your decision.

[AUDForex]

Hi,
AUD keeps on grow versus U.S. currency. Probably it will stop after G7.
This meeting is going to discuss about euro strongness and currency related topics.
Thanx

[waz]

Im surprised at how the Au$ is going up against every currency except the long loved carry currency the Yen.
A few months ago the moves against the Yen and Us$ were almost the same, however in the last month we are now at 89.4us cents, yet only 78.7 Yen

Ive now used this as a pair trade, short on the us$ and long with the Yen.
I plan to hold my Yen trade over a few weeks, will most likely close my us$ trade in the next few days, assuming it goes back down to around 88c.
Im only going to short for a 1 cent gain. My long term view is that the Us$ will continue to fall.


Im also assuming that a high Yen will not be liked by Japenese exporters. Well thats also the case for any country's exporters.

[waz]

Hoorah

So I made a profit on my long with the Yen, however am still at a loss with my short on the US$.

I cant post a pic now, however it looks like after hitting 89.5 we now have a heads and shoulder formation. It has hit the resistance level (which since breaking through has become the support) of 88.7 now 3 times in the last 48 hours.

Im assuming that unless gold and other commodities can go any higher, it should break 88.7 and possibly fall as low as 88 by the end of week.

I got in at 89c, Im starting to think I should have waited to get in at 89.5 and possibly 90.

Anyone else want put some analysis up??
This tread has become very quiet lately. I would have thought trading the Au$ would have been the easiest way for anyone us to make money the next few months.

[lasty]

"This tread has become very quiet lately. I would have thought trading the Au$ would have been the easiest way for anyone us to make money the next few months."

I agree with that comment however its fairly obvious that many out there try and make things too complex for themselves.
Cant see the woods for the trees comes to mind.

Good luck and happy hunting.

[Mr J]

Fun times! Sure regret missing the test of the longterm trendline at 86c, I'm sure someone here got it.

[waz]

Yup, not only has it passed 90c, it went as high as 90.15

Doh, I gt in too early.

I had a feeling the unemployment numbers would come in better than expected, however wouldnt the world have already known that after the rate rise.

[Mr J]

IB data has it as near instantaneous. Only way I would've been in that is at the test of the trendline on the daily, but that of course had to occur late on a friday night :banghead:. Pulled the Euro up a little too.

[cashflow_08]

Aussie potential to move 0.90300 ?

nice long. Got around 300 +++ pipiz :)

[waz]

Great work cashflow

I was hoping to see it fall to 88c by the end of the week.
Ive now given up on that and will get out where I got in at 89c.
Im not confident of it even falling to 88.7

DOH, so not only did I not make any money off this trade, I've had to pay interest.

Besides your 300 pips, you also earned some nice interest.

From now on till the rest of the year Im only going long on the dips on this pair.

[cashflow_08]

Hi Waz,

Its good not to go counter-trend when trend is strong long. As the gurus say " go with the trend". If the longer term such as 4hr and daily say long, then only bias long on scalping shorter t/fs. The success of trading with the trend is the risk - reward ratio 1:2 or higher.
These days i stay away from countertrades bcoz :eek: lol

Below Im describing a chart of A/U 4hr where you guys can see the trend is now at a exhaution level so i took my t/p there and waiting for a break form the blue incline line. If no break then i'll wait for another long IF it makes one.

[Stormin_Norman]

nice indicator down the bottom ;)

[pj2105]

The AUD has now hit .93 to the US Dollar, how high can this thing go?
I told my wife and she is booking a holiday to Hawaii! When we went to the US back in 2000 we had to double the store price to figure out who much we were paying in Australian Dollars, now it is nearly a dollar for dollar.

[skyQuake]

Parity here we comeee

[arco]

.
The Ichimoku Weekly chart has given great entries both short and long over the last 15 months.

There may be some potential for hesitation in the grey box zone IMO.

GTA - arco

[cashflow_08]

Great chart.
I guess we all should go for a holiday in hawaii for stress relief ;)

[legoman]

Parity here we comeee

Parity is great, except when you have a few grand tied up in the US until mid next year, at which time you'll be bringing it back at a 20% discount! :mad:

[arco]

Aussie looking interesting for a short - 4 Ichi elements in place on H1 plus potential H&S.

http://i38.tinypic.com/106kplk.gif

GTA - arco

[cashflow_08]

My Analysis agreeing with Arcos. There seems to be break of the triangle, might for short-term tomorow or tuesday reach the H/S support (bottom white flat line)

Cheers

[Aargh!]

Parity is great, except when you have a few grand tied up in the US until mid next year, at which time you'll be bringing it back at a 20% discount! :mad:

Not so great when you get paid in US dollars, 30% pay cut this year and counting! :banghead:

[DAZT49]

cashflow,
I cant work out the time from on your chart, is that hourly,30 m in, 10 min??

[cashflow_08]

Hi Daz,

Sorry i didnt mentioned in the earlier post. Its a 4hr chart

[carlos233]

Hello...I am new to the forum and to the FX market. I have traded the
forex market especially (aud/usd)for the last 7 months after switching from stocks.
Just wanted to introduce myself.....cheers.

[Miro]

Aussie Dollar hit 0.91287 overnight, now at 0.915 ... seems like a bargain at these levels

[lasty]

[QUOTE=Miro;503980]Aussie Dollar hit 0.91287 overnight, now at 0.915 ... seems like a bargain at these levels[/QUOTE

I would take a deep breath right now rather than buying the dips at this point.
I smell a correction in the wind.
Right now the tide is on the turn. Equities, commodities and FX seem to be showing a stall.
The waters can get murky when the tide turns.
Its one of those days when you sit on your hands and do nothing.

[cashflow_08]

Probably be more than a short retracement or correction as theres evidence in four and daily that a reversal MAY be taking place as seen in my last post.

[lasty]

Probably be more than a short retracement or correction as theres evidence in four and daily that a reversal MAY be taking place as seen in my last post.

Well certainly for the short term punters, I can sense a correction developing and thats not the use of charts, so your technical analysis and my gut seem to be aligned.
How far can we pullback?
Perhaps 5 pct Im thinking but the uptrend is still intact and there will no doubt be buyers on dips so when we get into this zone expect whippy sessions ahead.
Good hunting Cashflow.. nice call..

[arco]

Aussie looking interesting for a short - 4 Ichi elements in place on H1 plus potential H&S.

GTA - arco

Result

[Mr J]

Aussie Dollar hit 0.91287 overnight, now at 0.915 ... seems like a bargain at these levels

No offense, but when someone thinks that I think sell. Whenever I hear 'bargain', I think of someone trying to pick bottoms, or buying off a small retracement near the top and being the last to leave the party.


Its one of those days when you sit on your hands and do nothing.

There's plenty to do while we're waiting for medium to longterm movement.


Right now the tide is on the turn. Equities, commodities and FX seem to be showing a stall.

It does seem the stars are aligning for at least a retracement. Resistance and failure everywhere, and of course we've had a strong month, and a strong overall rally. Seems as good a time as any for nature to do its thing.

[Miro]

No offense, but when someone thinks that I think sell. Whenever I hear 'bargain', I think of someone trying to pick bottoms, or buying off a small retracement near the top and being the last to leave the party.

haha true, I had a good stop loss and I've actually made money today ... but that's been all luck. I've still got heaps to learn.

[Mr J]

Nothing personal, it's just what "looks a bargain" reminds me of. I just imagine people chatting around the office water cooler about stocks, only for the market to reverse soon afterwards ;).

[Miro]

Nothing personal, it's just what "looks a bargain" reminds me of. I just imagine people chatting around the office water cooler about stocks, only for the market to reverse soon afterwards ;).

I will never use that phrase again :) :eek:

[DAZT49]

I am a bit confused, if the reserve bank raises interest rates next week as people think, will that send our AUD up or down?
If it is up I would have thought it would have a lot more support than it has atm, even taking into account the lift in USD.

[lasty]

I am a bit confused, if the reserve bank raises interest rates next week as people think, will that send our AUD up or down?
If it is up I would have thought it would have a lot more support than it has atm, even taking into account the lift in USD.

It really depends however on the level of the currency come tuesday before the announcement.
The market has factored in 25 bp's increase.
If they dont raise the risk will be the downside.
If they raise 50bp's then expect a spike.

Personally I think the market is overbought so expect further profit taking of longs over the next several sessions.


.

[caribean]

It really depends however on the level of the currency come tuesday before the announcement.
The market has factored in 25 bp's increase.
If they dont raise the risk will be the downside.
If they raise 50bp's then expect a spike.

Personally I think the market is overbought so expect further profit taking of longs over the next several sessions.


.
25 is the expectation or 50 ?
I thought i heard on the radio 50, could have been daydreaming at the time though :o

[arco]

.

Watching this potential H&S. Testing the neck line atm

[Mr J]

It tested it and failed before noon, so I'm not sure what you're watching :confused:.

[el caballo]

Personally I think the market is overbought so expect further profit taking of longs over the next several sessions.


.

Completely concur.

[lusk]

Looks like it's moving down to the daily trend line 8950-8900, if it gets down there l will "look for a bargain" :D

[Mr J]

Looks like it's moving down to the daily trend line 8950-8900, if it gets down there l will "look for a bargain" :D

There will probably be something of a bounce off of it, regardless of where it goes next.

[lasty]

25 is the expectation or 50 ?
I thought i heard on the radio 50, could have been daydreaming at the time though :o

Well the consensus is 25 which I think the market has factored in.
50 is the optimistic view and thats where you get the media alarmist going for a sensational grab.
Stick with pro's and dont listen to a disc jockey who's paid to spin vinyl ;)

[lasty]

"Looks like it's moving down to the daily trend line 8950-8900, if it gets down there l will "look for a bargain".

Yes but a bargain for you or the seller?..Now thats going to be an interesting watch.. Good luck... My personal experience suggests, these are the trading sessions in a middle of a corrective phase when you become a charity worker..
Becareful and be lucky.

[Frank D]

Lasty,

the line of least resistance on the AUD is down into 86.85.

Personally I wouldn't be trading longs on AUD until next week.
Let the Week run it's course, and at this stage it's down.

You might find short-term intra-day reversals, but there's a market path of
a downward trend.

currencies a very closely aligned with US equity markets.

"I'm basing my total view on currencies based on the price action in US equity markets.

If Tuesday follows SET-UP A then currencies will drop considerably
on Tuesday and over the next few days" Monday 26th

[lusk]

"Looks like it's moving down to the daily trend line 8950-8900, if it gets down there l will "look for a bargain".

Yes but a bargain for you or the seller?..Now thats going to be an interesting watch.. Good luck... My personal experience suggests, these are the trading sessions in a middle of a corrective phase when you become a charity worker..
Becareful and be lucky.

As long as the trend is up buying on a retracement is a bargain to me, l will of course not be buying blindly will wait to see how it reacts at the trendline.

Its looking good at the moment.

[lasty]

As long as the trend is up buying on a retracement is a bargain to me, l will of course not be buying blindly will wait to see how it reacts at the trendline.

Its looking good at the moment.


The old cliche "the trend is your friend" has proven itself yet again.

[cashflow_08]

A bit early to tell but shorter t/fs has started making supports which would be followed by higher t/fs later this week. But no confirmation as yet to buy as a few obstacles are present around 1hr to 4hr. What do you guys think?
:)

[Mr J]

I'm not going to try and pick a top. The market will go where it wants, and I'll follow :).

[cashflow_08]

yea. lol. market opened much lower (confirmation didnt align up well.)
I guess just wait till market gives us a signal to jump in. : /

[Mr J]

Well, that open dropped the Euro below that beautiful trendline on the daily.

[skyQuake]

Down 100 and up 100 pips on the AUD/USD. Thank you RBA for making life fun lol

[arco]

It tested it and failed before noon, so I'm not sure what you're watching :confused:.

I was looking at a potential Head (H) and Shoulders (S), which eventually gave circa +250 pips.


ORIGINAL
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/attachment.php?attachmentid=34227&stc=1&d=1256718016

RESULT

[Kryzz]

If price doesn't stall and/or reverse around the .8773ish area, looks like there will be some lower highs put in, and the aussie dollar has had it's run imo, conversly i'm going to be going long if that beaut of a trendline is broken

[Kryzz]

Still holding long up about 140 pips thus far, moved stop right up as in a bit of a resistance zone at the moment, and a slight gap which didn't get filled entirely this morning

[caribean]

Still holding long up about 140 pips thus far, moved stop right up as in a bit of a resistance zone at the moment, and a slight gap which didn't get filled entirely this morning
Nice TL play Shaun, congrats on the trade too.
We'll see if 9280ish provide enough resistance.

[Kremmen]

We'll see if 9280ish provide enough resistance.
A minute ago, the midrate broke 93c. XE is giving it as .93016.

(I never trade currency positions. I just have some expenses in USD, so I watch closely when to transfer money.)

[sinner]

Hi guys,

Willing to risk 10 pips here to see if this bearish divergence plays out. Short from 0.9345 SL 0.9355

[sinner]

Hi guys,

Market has confirmed distribution, I have exited half the position at +10 to make a free trade (i.e. from 2 lots short with 10 pip SL I exit 1 of those at +10 so if the other is stopped out there is no effect on my balance).

See chart for levels/comments.