From a technical point of view it's just broken through the resistance line recently.
Any input will be appreciated.
still_in_school
9th-July-2004, 06:55 PM
Hi Jetdollars,
the stock, seems to be on a buy and hold for the medium term and medium risk, technically this stock has been on an uptrend since it first floated... in my idea, its a good stock to jump on and ride the bandwagon...
Cheers,
sis
JetDollars
10th-July-2004, 02:14 AM
Thanks Still In School....Keep learning
still_in_school
10th-July-2004, 04:51 AM
... there seems to be some heavy volume being traded between both buyers and sellers...
a large number of buyers are wanting to buy the share down at 6.75, while there is a large number of sellers wanting to sell b/w 6.85 and 6.90
interesting to see how this share will closes up for today...
Cheers,
sis
JetDollars
10th-July-2004, 04:54 AM
I purchased BSL a few days ago in my ASX Sharemarket Game.
Go the good thing....BSL
still_in_school
10th-July-2004, 05:00 AM
BSL Chart - OHLC
JetDollars
10th-July-2004, 09:18 AM
Well an uptrend still presenting, so holding on to it seem like a good idea.
I will come back and check it out in 2 weeks time...LOL
still_in_school
10th-July-2004, 09:53 AM
interesting to see it trade down to a low of $6.77 and still manage to close at $6.88... with this one... im not actively trading it... just gonna let the profits run... as its a definite hold... for the medium term...
Cheers,
sis
Joe Blow
10th-July-2004, 02:43 PM
BSL Chart - OHLC
Nice chart!
Gonna take a closer look at this one. It's got a nice uptrend happening!
8)
Aceyducey
11th-July-2004, 03:53 PM
Got a Strong rating from StockDoctor on the fundamentals as well.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
still_in_school
11th-July-2004, 04:44 PM
even looking at ANZ and BT, they are happy to do a 70% Margin Lend against it...
Cheers,
sis
JetDollars
12th-July-2004, 07:37 AM
I think I am going to buy more BSL in ASX Sharemarket Game on Monday...LOL
still_in_school
12th-July-2004, 07:58 AM
lol... remember Jet$, only invest 10-20% into 1 stock... very hard to be discipline some time...
lol.. trust me, i want to break the rules...
Cheers,
sis
JetDollars
12th-July-2004, 08:06 AM
SIS,
The ASX Sharemarket Game's rule state that:
You only allow to buy 25% of your allocated funds ie. $12,500. for this matter.
I think I got about $7000 with BSL at the moment. So I still able to purchase more if I want too.
RichKid
4th-February-2005, 01:09 PM
Thought I'd revive this thread since we really should be following a runner like Bluescope Steel more closely imo. The trend is your friend.
Breakouts around 8.50 and 9. If the past is anything to go by this ones going to run for a few more months before correcting (if at all).
Here's a chart for BSL, currently at $9.53, chart ends on 3Feb05. I hold via warrants.
dutchie
4th-February-2005, 01:57 PM
Hi RichKid
I agree, imo it still has plenty of upward movement - especially longterm.
Attractive forecast yield should keep it bullish.
(Happy to get in @922)
Do not take this as advice in any way - I am a amateur
JetDollars
5th-February-2005, 08:26 PM
well resources boom will help BSL trending up for a while....so I believe it is a good buy.
phoenixrising
6th-February-2005, 11:47 PM
Also nicely placed in the China boom.
RichKid
7th-February-2005, 10:33 AM
The breakout is continuing strongly, looks like it's gapping, but we'll have to see how this turns out. Volume is firm as well but nothing extraordinary, tends to be steady in steep uptrends for BSL. This may be the last major earnings upgrade season so BSL seems to be making the best of it. Maybe another 2 to 3 months left for this latest run.
RichKid
9th-February-2005, 10:12 PM
A minor correction today, some profit taking? Trend probably got ahead of itself. Still above supporting trend line so should be ok, typical for BSL judging by last few runs. Div not far away now and profit annoucement even sooner. Let's see if they surprise.
RichKid
12th-February-2005, 10:58 PM
Read in the FinReview about rumours of takeover of SSX (Smorgon Steel- not doing as well as BSL and OST due to tighter margins), one of the majors was tipped, might have accounted for the dip in BSL, but also noted that many bluechip holders would have switched to the banks after the CBA result, should be switching back to BSL, OST etc again. Strong recovery on Friday for BSL, let's see if it continues.
RichKid
20th-February-2005, 07:35 PM
Anyone keeping a close eye on Monday's profit annct? Is it to be expected at 8.30am as with AMP last week or do they release it later on in the morning, I don't usually follow profit anncts this closely but with the steep uptrend and reserve bank interest rate hike expected I'm wondering if it'll be a volatile day for BSL as the markets may go down for profit taking. BSL is also near psychological resistance at $10. I'm bullish on BSL longterm but I'm a bit cautious about tomorrow, should be good though.
RichKid
21st-February-2005, 09:39 AM
Profit annct, appears to be as expected, no nasty surprises but there is a bit of bad news (mainly local market oriented), as expected. Share buybacks by tender sometimes slow the momentum down, have to see what happens now. http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/Bluescope-more-than-doubles-net-profits/2005/02/21/1108834692480.html
Chief Wigam
22nd-February-2005, 02:07 AM
Technically BSL still looks good.
RichKid
23rd-February-2005, 12:35 AM
A bit of a fall today, profit taking? Or the news of iron ore price hikes? Still above recent steep trendline. Looks like it'll continue to fall tomorrow judging by close and depth.
RichKid
7th-March-2005, 05:06 PM
BSL a bit of a hiccup recently. Looks like either a complex head and shoulders reversal pattern (neckline c. 9.25) or a diamond reversal/continuation pattern. If it reverses it'll hit $9 pretty quick and I measure $8.50 as the next stop- but that's just the TA theory. General trend is still up. So difficult with these sometime, let's look for some direction this week as prices don't tighten for long in this stock.
DTM
8th-March-2005, 12:49 PM
I've been following BSL recently, not in it atm since I'm not sure of the direction. It's gone ex-div but some people will hold due to the 45 day rule, capital buy back still happening. Current formation was looking a bit toppish to me, might just be consolidation though, I expect an annct re price rise/surcharges for products before long. BSL may revert to a lower trajectory, which is why I'm not sure of BSL so far. Have to admit it really moves when it gets going. Will post a chart soon in the BSL thread: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=8284#post8284 I'll probably enter via warrants.
BSL was down 20 cents today @ $9.25 which could be the bottom. Tomorrow will confirm this if the price goes back up.
RichKid
8th-March-2005, 01:56 PM
Bounced off 9.25c today, I picked that as the neckline but on a closer look at the chart it's a thick neckline! So until it falls through 9.20 I'd say this one will hold. So revised neckline imo is 9.20-9.25c from where I've drawn it. Volume is poor so far today. Any other views?
DTM
8th-March-2005, 02:16 PM
Bounced off 9.25c today, I picked that as the neckline but on a closer look at the chart it's a thick neckline! So until it falls through 9.20 I'd say this one will hold. So revised neckline imo is 9.20-9.25c from where I've drawn it. Volume is poor so far today. Any other views?
I think that this is a positive move for BSL and can only see it going up from today. I bought in with call options today so will wait to see what happens.
RichKid
8th-March-2005, 02:22 PM
I think you may be right DTM about BSL bouncing, especially if this is a diamond continuation, but if it's not then just as much downside, next stop $9 in that case. I'm not quite sure so I'm out for the moment till things clarify. BSL currently climbing to 9.34. This week will be interesting.
DTM
8th-March-2005, 03:47 PM
Looks like BSL is looking to break out tomorrow. Hope I'm right, we'll see tomorrow. ;)
I could also be wrong so don't take this as advice.
RichKid
12th-March-2005, 09:09 AM
Looking a bit uncertain for BSL, I'm very cautious now as it's looking to test that solid (apparent) support at $9 and appears to have broken that 9.20/25 area. Maybe ppl are waiting on an annct of some sort? Any rumours?
DTM
14th-March-2005, 02:50 PM
And at last the much awaited turnaround. Up 42 cents at the moment and hopefully will carry on past today.
:jump:
You're right Rich, when it moves it moves... :xyxthumbs
RichKid
18th-March-2005, 10:29 PM
Funny day for BSL, see the intraday. Steadily moving towards support at $9, will it bounce or pierce? I expect a bounce at first. Some brokers are shorting this (ie sp valuation) to $8.50 but views are varied. I think they're trying to influence the market so they can buy BSL cheap with some of that spare cash they've got from dividends etc. Still a great medium to longterm prospect imo.
First chart: Intermediate top in short term downtrend?? Just an intraday so won't read too much into it.
(next chart is longterm- looks like complex head and shoulders, downward sloping neckline, next stop 8.50 if it falls. If a brief jump up next week then gap at around 9.25 should be filled in a day.
DTM
18th-March-2005, 11:24 PM
Hi Rich,
I'm bullish on them as well. I bought some call options on them yesterday and expect to hold until Tuesday.
RichKid
21st-March-2005, 10:31 PM
Appears to be following that down sloping neckline, crucial issue is it's below horizontal support/resistance at $9. BSL always jumps around so let's see where it's going. Below I see 8.60 and then 8.50. I see the big boys jumping in if it goes below 8.50, I wont be surprised if they turn their analyst reports around all of a sudden to Buy Buy Buy, but not yet, and tomorrow is another day....
el_ninj0
21st-March-2005, 11:09 PM
Why didn't BSL go up more during the peak periods of September - January for most metals stocks?
After all, I would think the demand for steel into china would have been huge at that time, and even bigger now.
Investor
20th-April-2005, 11:09 AM
I bought some BSL shares some time ago before the price rise.
Recent share price weakness appears to stem from significantly increased iron ore prices, leading to rise in COGS for BSL; uncertainty about the direction of the global economy (economic slowdown will reduce usage of steel products) and rise in supply of steel companies in China.
Bought more shares in BSL on Monday at $7.96. The P/E ratio is relatively low, but this reflects the high risk industry sector that BSL is in.
mime
20th-April-2005, 05:38 PM
I think it's a good buy. But I rather buy cheaper stocks.
Investor
20th-April-2005, 07:24 PM
In the latest aireview no. 55, just released, JP Morgan has a buy recommendation on BSL, citing a P/E of 5.1 for FY 05 and 6.2 FY 06.
Irregardless, the critical aspect for expectations of share price, is the global supply and demand equation. Supply of steel is increasing rapidly in China, but if demand can rise fast enough, then BSL is currently "value buying". Conversely, if demand cannot keep up with supply, BSL could be trading at fair value. Clearly, any prospective buyer of BSL shares needs to analyse the situation and form an opinion, but bear in mind that this is relatively high risk investment.
To me, BSL has good brands (colorbond and zincalume) which provide an element of product differentiation. BSL's strategy with expansion into Asia, with a gradual incremental approach, rather than lump sum critical mass, appears sound.
The relatively low P/E makes BSL an acceptable risk/return proposition for me, but not too large an allocation in the portfolio.
GreatPig
19th-May-2005, 12:06 AM
BSL on its way up again?
A decent break above $8 might see me in again.
Cheers,
GP
Investor
19th-May-2005, 12:53 PM
A $200 million on-market buyback has been taking place.
Merrills is recommending investors buy BlueScope Steel (BSL) for recovery in HRC prices and organic Asian growth.
The analysts believe their forecast return to positive news flow in the global perspective will specifically benefit producers of flat product. All of BlueScope’s hot metal output is flat product.
The analysts expect BlueScope’s earnings growth and share price performance over the next 6-12 months to be driven by China’s deficit of
flat product and “higher for longer” HRC prices.
The rollout of the downstream growth strategy also appears to be accelerating, which will improve the stock’s long term value.
Moreover, Merrills sees BlueScope as the company most likely to be acquired by one of the global majors. Not surprisingly, the company represents Merrills preferred steel exposure.
Julia
5th-July-2005, 10:19 PM
Would be interested to hear from anyone holding BSL re thoughts about the future. Recent comments have been fairly negative re steel prices having definiely peaked. Are you holding or selling?
Julia
excalibur
6th-July-2005, 03:31 AM
Would be interested to hear from anyone holding BSL re thoughts about the future. Recent comments have been fairly negative re steel prices having definiely peaked. Are you holding or selling?
Julia
Hi Julia,
It has been speculated in Europe that the price of steel should still sink a bit. Many companies existing storage is filled up, lowering the request and consequentially the price will still fall. I have already sold similar stocks like Thyssen-Krupp in Germany...and was right.
I am not going to give you any advice because I am not allowed to.
If you have lost confidence in the stock then you must be consequent.
Cheers ;)
DTM
6th-July-2005, 09:06 AM
Hi Julia,
It has been speculated in Europe that the price of steel should still sink a bit. Many companies existing storage is filled up, lowering the request and consequentially the price will still fall. I have already sold similar stocks like Thyssen-Krupp in Germany...and was right.
I am not going to give you any advice because I am not allowed to.
If you have lost confidence in the stock then you must be consequent.
Cheers ;)
I agree with you. BSL has been on my radar as one to fall. :2twocents
RichKid
7th-July-2005, 09:50 AM
Recent article on the topic, not sure how much BSL is exposed to weakening markets.
Steel Prices Under Severe Pressure
July 05 2005 - Australasian Investment Review – (AIR)
The latest information from steel researcher MEPS indicates a torrid time for steel prices. In the flat products category, substantial price cuts were put in place for June in China and Japan for all strip mill products, and values are under severe negative pressure in South Korea and Taiwan, MEPS reports.
A plethora of commercial grade plate across the region is keeping prices weak. MEPS believes prices in South Korea and Taiwan (which have not decreased) will be pushed lower in the short term.
A common theme running through the flat products market in Asia is pertinent in other parts of the world, says MEPS. Mill order books are low because of over stocking by customers earlier in the year. Mill inventories are too high and, therefore, selling prices are being cut to generate orders.
MEPS believes the downturn in the market has just commenced, and believes the outlook for the next ten months is poor. Output has been running at levels well above real consumption for many months. Production curbs are anticipated in the near future but will take time to become effective.
MEPS envisages a continuous price slide up to March next year. Opportunities for exporting to the West are not good because prices are sliding in both the major consuming regions.
www.aireview.com
Dan_
18th-July-2005, 03:38 PM
Has anyone been watching this stock lately?
slowly working it's way up and up and i don't understand why? Anyone care to provide their thoughts?
Sorry I would post a chart but yet to figure it out :o
dutchie
18th-July-2005, 04:34 PM
I think it was bagged previously because of the lower price of steel. Then it was mentioned that it still had a good cashflow and I would assume it was underpriced.
(Could find resistance at 8.86)
Julia
18th-July-2005, 04:34 PM
Macquarie have today rated BSL as "Outperform" with a target price of $10.50.
Julia
Battman64
18th-July-2005, 06:17 PM
This stock is looking like a short at $9.10
Already had seven days up.
Overbought at present.
I have been wrong many times :)
markrmau
3rd-August-2005, 07:49 PM
I shorted today at 9.38
Anyone else short? Tight stops on this one though.
excalibur
3rd-August-2005, 08:01 PM
I haven`t any stocks but I think that was a wise decision.
Keep an eye on it although, the steel industry has been a bit too quiet in the past few months. I might jump in as soon as she drops to 8.
markrmau
5th-August-2005, 11:57 AM
Interesting. Normally, when you put a trade into the cfd provider to buy / sell, the hedging order appears in the depth.
However, when I put my cover buy order in for BSL, no such order appears.
Maybe the hedging partner doesn't want the BSL shares back?
mit
5th-August-2005, 04:49 PM
They could have matched the order internally. Obviously not CMC I've never seen my order go into the depth. Unless it is because I am such a small player : :rolleyes:
Hope you are all wrong as I am long BSL at the moment. :sly: It's getting close to announcement time, so it could go either way depending on performance against expectations.
MIT
DTM
5th-August-2005, 11:55 PM
Hope you are all wrong as I am long BSL at the moment. :sly: It's getting close to announcement time, so it could go either way depending on performance against expectations.
MIT
There's been too much strong buying in the last few weeks to make me think that people are buying it for the sake of it. I'm sure someone knows what the real story is.
Tipping that it could be a bumper year. :2twocents
markrmau
6th-August-2005, 05:01 AM
Pretty strong reversal today. Still below my sell price, but will cover Monday.
JeffB
9th-August-2005, 12:38 PM
No comments on this thread lately, are we still bullish on BSL ? - last sale 9.46. Alot of deals being made in China and BHP is channeling all it's steel requirements their way (obviously).
mit
9th-August-2005, 01:37 PM
9.47 now. I'm long but this is from running a mechanical trading system rather than for any other tangible reason.
Seems to be bouncing around in a 30c range over the last week or so. People might be waiting for the profit announcement which should be around the 23rd or this month before it breaks out of this range. Today is the highest over this period but it is not really a decisive break yet.
MIT
Julia
17th-August-2005, 09:51 PM
Does anyone have any comments where BSL is going following recent gains?
Broker today suggested that it would be fully valued at $10.00.
Julia
GreatPig
17th-August-2005, 11:19 PM
No idea, but $10 is around it's all-time high back in February.
Cheers,
GP
Chief Wigam
23rd-August-2005, 12:25 AM
Closing in on it's all time high of 10.29. Wish I held more than I have. Possibly the ADX is indicating look out for a trend change. It might go sideways soon. But up a little longer first I suspect.
mit
23rd-August-2005, 03:41 PM
Market didn't take the profit announcement too well though.
MIT
Chief Wigam
24th-August-2005, 12:49 AM
Yeh, OK it may start a sideways pattern now then.
TjamesX
24th-August-2005, 02:04 AM
Slaughtered on the day it reports the largest profit on record - 70% or so larger than last years profit, all because forecast for next year is not as good..... well the market reaction did make me sit up and notice.
mit
24th-August-2005, 08:27 AM
I haven't hit my stops yet. Hopefully just an over-reaction. On my experience these things last 1-3 days and start recovering, unless the market has really gone off the company. Unfortunately I got caught both ways. I was going to buy Seven on Monday but didn't get to the market before 4:05 (Closed at 8.08). Pulled my order yesterday because I thought it would drop due to the announcement. It opened at 8:10 to close at 8:41! Some weeks it just doesn't pay to get out of bed.
MIT
Dan_
26th-September-2005, 07:02 PM
Closed back through the $10.00 barrier today after a $0.30 rise on no news. Any thoughts to why the jump in price? Also any chartists want to offer some thoughts?
I currently hold
Julia
26th-September-2005, 09:56 PM
Closed back through the $10.00 barrier today after a $0.30 rise on no news. Any thoughts to why the jump in price? Also any chartists want to offer some thoughts?
I currently hold
Dan,
The increase today seems relative to the overall increase in the market.
About two or three weeks ago, a couple of analysts suggested BSL would be fully valued at $10.00. Looks like they could be wrong (again!).
Julia
RodC
27th-September-2005, 07:43 AM
Could be a bit of a run-up to the dividend as well.
BSL goes ex dividend tomorrow.
Rod.
rozella
27th-September-2005, 10:35 AM
I think you are right RodC, its a big dividend (44.0/share fully franked) for a $10 stock.
rozella
RodC
27th-September-2005, 03:27 PM
I Sold BSL today.
I only bought these as a dividend trade and I've managed to make 49c (gross) so I didn't think it was worth staying in for the dividend.
Rod.
RichKid
20th-October-2005, 04:35 PM
Looking like one sick little duck. OST seems to be the favoured rival atm.
Julia
31st-October-2005, 11:21 PM
I've been coming across more and more reports that China's steel production is outstripping demand, even given their buoyant building boom.
Are there some forum members who could make a comment on how this, if correct, will affect Bluescope?
Ditto Sims, though clearly to a lesser degree.
Sorry, Joe, Rich and Wayne" I guess I should have put this last on the SMS thread.
Julia
wayneL
1st-November-2005, 01:21 AM
I've been coming across more and more reports that China's steel production is outstripping demand, even given their buoyant building boom.
Are there some forum members who could make a comment on how this, if correct, will affect Bluescope?
Ditto Sims, though clearly to a lesser degree.
Sorry, Joe, Rich and Wayne" I guess I should have put this last on the SMS thread.
Julia
This ties in with what I was told about ships full of ore, sitting at the docks not being unloaded.
The story was that there was LC (letter of credit) problems, but this could be a factor also...or a symptom?
RichKid
1st-November-2005, 02:14 AM
Maybe we should open a thread on steel and global demand.... there are lots of different types of products out there and that will to a certain degree affect BSL. I'll try to dig up some broker summaries or reports on BSL and their particular products and markets. It's easier for me to go off charts as I don't know how reliable all these rumours and figures are and I'm no expert in steel.
RichKid
4th-November-2005, 09:23 AM
Here's a start on steel products and some views on why some steel co's should do better than others. Go to aireview.com and do some searches on 'hot rolled coil', 'steel market', 'long product' etc for info to make your head whiz!
CHINA ABOUT TO SPOIL BLUESCOPE’S PARTY?
www.aireview.com issue 82 27Oct05
Industry watchers at Steel Business Briefi ng (SBB) are not the most optimistic fellows around, especially when it comes to gauging China’s impact on Asian steel prices.
UBS analysts report the broker hosted a recent briefi ng by SBB Shanghai’s chief representative who took the opportunity to present a rather gloomy outlook for the industry caused by expectations of cheap Chinese exports fl ooding other markets.
SBB believes Chinese authorities will not be able to stop the current steel dynamics in the country, which will keep a lid on the price of steel products in China, and thus increase exports, and thus incumbents elsewhere will be forced to lower their prices to keep the Chinese exporters from their home markets. SBB is especially worried for producers of so-called fl at steel products.
UBS analysts tend to agree with SBB’s pessimism, at least as far as the production side of things is concerned - it is diffi cult to tame the steel dragon - but the analysts also believe Chinese demand will absorb more than SBB’s estimates and that should make the overall picture a less sombre one.
Nevertheless, UBS analysts also note that given there is evidence of continued weakening prices in China, and declining Korean domestic and Japanese export prices, it may well be that the negative picture painted by SBB may already be playing out currently.
The broker believes this increases the near term risk for BlueScope Steel’s (BSL) export earnings and thus its share price. Reason enough for the broker to keep a preference for the long product producers, OneSteel (OST) and Smorgon Steel (SSX), as they have little exposure to volatile global markets and greater exposure to strong domestic construction cycles. On a 12 month view, however, the analysts remain comfortable with a Neutral 2 rating for BlueScope.
Aussiejeff
4th-November-2005, 10:11 AM
Yikes! BSL down 18% on open to $7.37....
I do not hold....
AJ
GreatPig
4th-November-2005, 12:13 PM
I was considering holding, but not right now thanks :o
GP
happytrader
4th-November-2005, 12:33 PM
Looks like we've got the range for the month on this stock.
Cheers
Happytrader
Yippyio
4th-November-2005, 12:54 PM
Ask yourself why would the Chinese buy steel from BSL ???
BSL export aspirations are doomed if they think that they can produce in Australia and export, in competition to the Chinese.
A more realistic situation is China buying raw materials i.e. Iron Ore from Australia but certainly not the finished product.
BHP knew this a long time ago which is why they spun off their steel making business into a seperate entity and called it Bluescope. It was apparent a long time ago that BHP could not be competative as a steel producer and nor can BSL.
BSL will need to do two things, set up shop in China and export from China (very risky) or satisfy itself that it can achieve enough growth through it's domestic market, here in Australia.
happytrader
4th-November-2005, 01:11 PM
Agree Yippo
They've just discounted the price today to reflect all this and now they're buying back in at these more realistic prices. They want you to think doom. Remember the emotions causing a person to sell are stronger than the emotion to buy.
Cheers
Happytrader
Julia
4th-November-2005, 02:22 PM
I'm happy to say that I sold yesterday at $8.65. Have just felt for a while that the negatives for BSL have been increasing.
Julia
Chief Wigam
4th-November-2005, 10:11 PM
I am not sure why you say it is too risky to set up shop in China. A lot of companies are doing it sucessfully. General Electric has gone in big time as one example.
Also in my line of work (we are an engineering co. that manufacture equipment, including from our China base and therefore buy steel) I have noted that local Chinese steel is not that much cheaper than imported steel.
GreatPig
5th-November-2005, 01:00 PM
I'm happy to say that I sold yesterday at $8.65
Excellent timing, Julia :)
I was watching the price turn back up and was considering buying back in for a short-term rise. After Thursday's step up, I was set to buy back in on Friday - until I saw the price that morning.
Just as well there's wasn't another up-day before the drop, or I would likely have been holding.
Cheers,
GP
RichKid
5th-November-2005, 10:47 PM
Excellent timing, Julia :)
I was watching the price turn back up and was considering buying back in for a short-term rise. After Thursday's step up, I was set to buy back in on Friday - until I saw the price that morning.
Just as well there's wasn't another up-day before the drop, or I would likely have been holding.
Cheers,
GP
This makes OST all the more attractive and maybe SSX. Hate to be a bottom picker atm.
TheAnalyst
17th-November-2005, 05:28 PM
Anyone got anymore news on the Bluescope story as i have gone long with a call warrant as of monday and plan to sit there for a while.
Kauri
17th-November-2005, 06:38 PM
Anyone got anymore news on the Bluescope story as i have gone long with a call warrant as of monday and plan to sit there for a while.
Hi The Analyst
According to my weekly charts of BSL it looks like a likely place to bounce up, another good call... :xyxthumbs
TheAnalyst
17th-November-2005, 07:32 PM
Hi The Analyst
According to my weekly charts of BSL it looks like a likely place to bounce up, another good call... :xyxthumbs
Do you want to know how i call em with out charts?
Kauri
17th-November-2005, 07:52 PM
Do you want to know how i call em with out charts?
The Analyst..
If you want to share how you do it I would be grateful. I am always ready to learn, :)
TjamesX
17th-November-2005, 09:21 PM
I don't know a lot about the BSL story, but I did note they got pounded when they revised earnings down to 85c per share?
Currently trading around $7.40
Thats a PE of 9.
Average PE for aussie market about 15, US more.
Fundamentally thats cheap, or there is some other reason why the market has reacted that way...ie market thinks earning will fall further in future?
either way a lot of negativity priced in which may or may not eventuate.
TheAnalyst
17th-November-2005, 09:47 PM
I don't know a lot about the BSL story, but I did note they got pounded when they revised earnings down to 85c per share?
Currently trading around $7.40
Thats a PE of 9.
Average PE for aussie market about 15, US more.
Fundamentally thats cheap, or there is some other reason why the market has reacted that way...ie market thinks earning will fall further in future?
either way a lot of negativity priced in which may or may not eventuate.
The earnings down grade has been projected between 85 cents and $1 per share at $7.40 thats a P/E of 8.7($7.40/0.85 cents=8.71) or at a $1 on $7.40 a P/E of 7.4%($7.40/$1=7.4). In the address to the market the director wasnt really sure that it would eventuate but was cautious.
On top of this is the share buy back which will increase the earnings per share as there will then be less shares on issue, therefore a lower P/E leading to another ajustment most likely to a higher share price.
Here we establish a fundamental trading range and from here we are then able to measure the volitility of a stock and put in a time span to get a number of periods and therefore we get a standard deviation and its implied volatility.
Heres a hint how i do it Kauri but dont worry the fundmanagers and there traders wont care that i share it becuase when they write various financial instruments they are for hedging they dont lose either way. They are risk managment tools to them and trading instruments to us as they use the bionomial tree with the black scholes method so there trades will not lose which way the stock actually goes.
I do look at charts as i once was a chartist but they are not the whole picture as i think they are visualisation tools but good for stocks that are moving fast and have no earnings.
Kipp
2nd-December-2005, 05:31 PM
BSL down to $7.11 today and I just can't see why it fails to recover, even when there has been a series of positive company announcements.
As the analyst said previously, even when you use the corrected P/E ratio ~7-9 it still is trading well below it's competitors, Onesteel and Smorgon (both P/E's of about 15).
Any ideas on why the market is being so unkind to BSL?
Kauri
2nd-December-2005, 07:29 PM
BSL down to $7.11 today and I just can't see why it fails to recover, even when there has been a series of positive company announcements.
As the analyst said previously, even when you use the corrected P/E ratio ~7-9 it still is trading well below it's competitors, Onesteel and Smorgon (both P/E's of about 15).
Any ideas on why the market is being so unkind to BSL?
Thanks for that Kauri, I agree it does sound pretty bleak for the steel market overall.
Julia
2nd-December-2005, 11:00 PM
There have been warnings out for nearly a year now to the effect that China is gradually becoming a net exporter of steel whereas previously it was a net importer. This has been described in dozens of articles in the financial and daily media.
I sold out at $8.65 in early November and am thankful I did.
Julia
TheAnalyst
22nd-December-2005, 07:09 PM
Just read that u sold out at 8.65 Julia that was a good move because if the net earnings per share are going from $1.34 to a minimum of 0.85cents then its value from say a high of $10.20 means a value to as low as $6.22 and a p/e of 7 would mean the stock would be valued at $5.95 and a p/e of 6 $5.10.
Now i know why macquarie has issued so many equity call warrants as of October 2005 because they know who ever was the suckers who bought BSLWMM and any similar call warrants have just delivered them all their dough that they used to purchase the warrants.
On a p/e of 10 then the stock will be at $8.50 and the only cautious point is the the chief director gave a minimum net earnings per share of between 0.85 cents and $1 so that a p/e of 10 at net earnings of $1 per share would give a share price of $10.00 then at certian time at cum dividend this also must be added to the calculated share prices.
Well thats the most fundamental trading range i can establish for the stock with good and bad scenarios of the net earnings per share taken into account.
Ann
11th-February-2006, 11:40 PM
8 February 2006
BlueScope's 2006 profit may decline 53% on China steel glut
Source: Bloomberg
BlueScope Steel Ltd., Australia's largest steelmaker, said annual profit will fall as much as 53 percent because of a glut in China. The company's shares slid 12 percent, their biggest slump in three months.
Earnings per share will be 65 Australian cents to 75 Australian cents in the year ending June 30, the Melbourne-based company said in a statement today. That's down from a record A$1.374 ($1.01) last year and is below analysts' estimates.
China, which produces a third of the world's steel, became a net exporter for the first time last year, forcing companies such as Mittal Steel Co. and Posco to cut prices and output. BlueScope said prices this quarter fell as much as 20 percent from the first half and the "weaker pricing environment could continue."
"This is not a global steel demand issue; it is a regional over-production and steel supply issue," BlueScope managing director Kirby Adams said
Shares of BlueScope Steel fell 90 cents to close on the Australian Stock Exchange at A$6.56, the lowest since June 25, 2004. Other steelmakers in Asia also fell. Shares of Posco fell 2.7 percent to 217,500 won, and shares of Nippon Steel Corp. fell 3 percent to 425 yen.
China output
Chinese steel production may increase 10 percent this year, the China Iron and Steel Association said last month, after jumping 25 percent in 2005.
"Given how high the market is, if there's anyone missing their targets, they're really going to be hammered in a big way," said James Holt, who helps manage the equivalent of $4.6 billion at Zurich Financial Services Ltd. in Sydney.
Posco, the world's fifth-largest steelmaker, last month said its fourth-quarter profit fell 68 percent as benchmark Asian prices declined because of overproduction in China. Posco forecast sales would drop as much as 12 percent this year, reflecting increased competition from China. Posco cut its sales estimate twice last year.
'Depression'
"We are entering a valley of depression such as we have never experienced before," Chairman Lee Ku Tae said in his New Year speech to employees on Jan. 2. "China has become a net exporter due to its active expansion over the recent years and has become an unavoidable threat sooner than expected."
BlueScope and its rivals are being squeezed by falling prices for their products and high raw materials costs. The prices of iron ore and coking coal, used in steel making, jumped to records last year as Chinese steelmakers compete for the supply. Iron ore prices may rise another 12 percent from April this year, according to a Bloomberg survey in November.
"The question now is what happens in the longer term," Tony Farnham, an analyst at Aegis Equities Research Pty., said in Sydney.
'The oversupply from regional steel production has pushed down commodity steel prices and put unwarranted demand tension into raw materials which is hurting global steelmakers," said Kirby Adams in the BlueScope's statement posted on the Australian Stock Exchange. "These pressures have flowed through Asia and into our domestic markets."
Pipes
BlueScope produces hot-rolled steel coil, a benchmark product which is processed to make pipes and tubes and is used in cars and buildings. It also paints, coat and process steel, turning it into roofs, fences and walls. It has plants in Asian countries including China, Vietnam and Indonesia.
Hot-rolled coil prices fell by more than $100 a ton recently, Adams said on a conference call. BlueScope had to cut prices in Asia for products including hot-rolled, cold-rolled and galvanized steel products.
Prices of hot-rolled coil for Japan, a benchmark product in Asia, may fall 28 percent this year to $429 a ton, from a year ago, according to a January forecast made by Sydney-based AME Mineral Economics.
Plant
BlueScope's Asian business posted a loss in the first half, BlueScope Steel said. The second half will be better for the unit, said BlueScope's Chief Financial Officer Paul O'Malley on a conference call with reporters.
The company is ramping up plant capacity in Asia, and has cut down on higher-cost materials in its inventories. Orders from customers are also starting to rise, O'Malley said.
In Australia, demand has been reduced from manufacturing and automotive customers, Adams said on the teleconference call. Higher oil prices reduced demand for cars, leading carmakers to slow orders for steel products, he said.
Kirby also said the company hasn't been approached with offers for mergers nor from a potential acquirer.
Asian Pacific steel stocks surged on Jan. 30, after Mittal Steel Co. made 18.6 billion euro ($22.3 billion) takeover bid for rival Arcelor SA, sparking speculation of more acquisitions.
The company said it expects to pay out at least 42 cents per share of dividend as previously announced. The company will report half-year earnings Feb. 20.
TheAnalyst
23rd-March-2006, 09:34 PM
Things looking glim for BSL
China steel prices tipped to decline
Email Print Normal font Large font March 23, 2006 - 8:44PM
Chinese steel prices are likely to resume their fall in the second half of 2006 as growth in the country's demand for the metal slows, said an official at Baosteel, the world's sixth-largest steel maker.
Jia Yanlin, managing director of Baoshan Iron and Steel Co Ltd's raw material purchasing centre, told industry officials on Thursday a strong rebound in steel product prices since February was unsustainable, due to the nation's overcapacity.
"The growth rate in demand in 2006 will be much lower than in the past four years. The current output is very, very large," he said at a ferro-alloy conference organised by Metal Bulletin.
"Inevitably, prices will be on a downward path in the second half of this year."
Baosteel, China's largest steel maker, had a 2005 crude steel output of 23 million tonnes.
China's steel prices dived 32 per cent between last March and the end of last year, as capacity expansions led to a glut, especially in construction steel and flat products.
Yet prices rebounded in the first two months of 2006, allowing Baosteel to set its second-quarter prices more than 10 per cent higher than the first quarter.
Jia said factors underpinning the recent pick-up included a correction following a slump in prices last year, large exports and strong seasonal demand in the second quarter.
"We have a peak in demand in the second quarter every year," the official said. "But generally speaking, there is an oversupply (this year)."
Between 2006-2010, Jia said the growth in China's steel demand would slow to an average of about 6 per cent a year, from 21 per cent between 2000 and 2005.
Referring to China's fixed asset investment, which expanded by more than 25 per cent year-on-year in the last four to five years, the Baosteel official said: "I don't think China can keep such high growth rates for fixed asset investment."
"Fixed asset investment accounts for about half of GDP.
This has never happened in other countries."
Jia predicted many Chinese steel companies would suffer from losses and face cash flow and payment difficulties in future as steel prices decline. He also expected the industry to see many mergers and acquisitions.
Chinese steel firms' profits fell 74.6 per cent in the first two months of the year, compared with the same period of 2005, Chinese media said on Thursday, citing government statistics.
What the heck happened to BSL on Friday?
I put a stop loss at $7 on Thursday, and suddenly today it went to $7 from about 7.2 or 7.3. It was triggered!
shinobi346
17th-June-2006, 04:58 PM
China's disclosure of steel stockpiling athe ports triggered it probably. April and May were not good months but it's slowly climbing up again. :)
pacer
29th-June-2006, 02:38 PM
I think shorting bsl is a good way to go this week, not looking too good is it.
2nd profit downgrade and lots of sackings and closure of mills, and wouldn't surprise me if more closures happen over next few months.
pacer
30th-June-2006, 10:25 AM
Yes!!!, nice overnight sell and buyback first thing this morning,easy money.....the only one of the top 50 to fall over night, so had to sell straight away....made an average weeks wages ..... ahah
scsl
5th-July-2006, 04:10 PM
is anyone still holding onto or buying BSL at the moment? it seems people are still buying BSL over the last four months despite profit downgrades and negative news about the world steel market/costs.
i suspect that the sp's steady uptrend is being supported by the large institutions and fund buying...
redandgreen
5th-July-2006, 05:00 PM
is anyone still holding onto or buying BSL at the moment? it seems people are still buying BSL over the last four months despite profit downgrades and negative news about the world steel market/costs.
i suspect that the sp's steady uptrend is being supported by the large institutions and fund buying...
BSL is still, despite all the negative news, an attractive longer term investment. I am sure a lot of super funds hold this stock as it is currently trading well below fundamental value and btw the asian expansion could well prove to be its salvation.
scsl
5th-July-2006, 06:06 PM
BSL is still, despite all the negative news, an attractive longer term investment. I am sure a lot of super funds hold this stock as it is currently trading well below fundamental value and btw the asian expansion could well prove to be its salvation.
i just had a read of this recent article posted on FNArena.
brokers are mixed about their opinions on the asian businesses. GSJBWere are uncertain about the timing and size of any improvements that may arise, with a sp valuation of $8.27. Merrill Lynch believe that rising zinc and aluminium costs can be kept under control. they have a huge sp target of $10.50!
pacer
5th-July-2006, 07:09 PM
I short sold them last week as they seem to have a noticeable trend when they come off a top as you can see from the last year there are 5 big tops and they all fall away the same......will probably take my money and run tomorrow, as Im happy with a couple of grand for a short term, my number 2 rule.....if you're happy with what you've made, get out.
So I expect them to be lower tomorrow by 1-2% and possibly the same the next day, but should rise again after that if BSL follows the same pattern.
If the SP goes up a little tomorrow, I will probably still walk away with a bit of loot.
flyhigher
5th-July-2006, 10:06 PM
i shorted BSl today,expecting it drop to 7.5 or lower bolliger band, stop set at 8
cheers
Realist
5th-July-2006, 10:39 PM
is anyone still holding onto or buying BSL at the moment?
I hold BSL and will continue to do so for a long time, forget all the recent hype, it is a great company with excellent longterm prospects IMHO.
nelly
5th-July-2006, 10:50 PM
I hold BSL and will continue to do so for a long time, forget all the recent hype, it is a great company with excellent longterm prospects IMHO.
Realist..being new at this..[what do I know] I agree only because I have 'history' with this one....from before they existed.
Cheers...I remember the add. :D
pacer
7th-July-2006, 05:45 AM
Well I was right on the money and got out of my short position first thing this morning and should have bought back some more ....would have made another $500 for the day, never mind .....North Korea could change my graph mapping for the next week or so anyway. $2000 profit in a week, what a funny game this is, no need to go find a real job.
Chief Wigam
9th-July-2006, 10:11 PM
With the all the takeover and mergers in the industry around the world, perhaps Bluescope is a candidate.
flyhigher
14th-July-2006, 10:43 AM
bsl fall less than peer group. shall i close my short position today?
thanks
dubiousinfo
18th-August-2006, 06:58 AM
Steel Biz Briefing
According to Patrick Flockhart, Managing Director at Steel Biz Briefing a bit of weakness is coming out of the former CIS countries like Russia and Ukraine.
Western Europe is still very strong and it looks like there are going to be some further price rise coming in through Q4 that is for the period of October till December, he adds.
There are lots of exports coming out of China for the first time but as of now they are not significantly impacting the price situation, he further adds.
Q: After looking at what Baosteel said today, do you expect softness in the steel market globally?
A: We haven’t exactly seen what Baosteel has said but at the moment there is a bit of weakness in China for domestic price scene and also for export prices. We are also seeing a bit of weakness coming out of the former CIS countries like Russia and Ukraine.
Western Europe is still very strong and it looks like there are going to be some further price rise coming in through Q4 that is for the period of October till December. In the eastern part of the world, in China and Russia there is a weakness but generally speaking in the advance economies the steel cycle are still pretty solid.
It might be that we are heading for an overall top of the cycle in Q4. But in Q1, we will probably off the top of that cycle but the general view at the moment is that the prices will not be going down significantly in Western Europe and United States if at all. They are bit of a mixed bag and are perhaps showing the regional nature of the worldwide steel business.
A lot of people were worried about lot of exports coming out of China potentially having a disruptive effect on United States and Western Europe. There are lots of exports coming out of China for the first time but as of now they are not significantly impacting the price situation. So quite a varied picture there I am afraid but very interesting too.
Q: What are average levels at which you find prices now in the US, Europe and China?
A: The United States price according to the US Steel Index last week was USD 648 for a short-term and the European price was about EUR 485 per tonne last week and these are the European and the American domestic prices.
The European price is a metric price. Prices coming out of places like Ukraine etc at the moment are probably in the order of round about USD 500 base price.
dubiousinfo
27th-September-2006, 11:50 AM
BSL went ex a 24c dividend today & is only down 8c. But the ****** MM's have got the warrants down 15c. :banghead:
Realist
27th-September-2006, 11:54 AM
Yeah I own BSL. It's yield is at least good. And with a PER of 9.7 it aint overvalued...
That is the best I can say about it. I'm down on this one.. :banghead:
finnsk
27th-September-2006, 12:31 PM
Yeah I own BSL. It's yield is at least good. And with a PER of 9.7 it aint overvalued
What about future dividends will they remain at same level?
GreatPig
27th-September-2006, 01:56 PM
BSL went ex a 24c dividend today & is only down 8c. But the ****** MM's have got the warrants down 15c. :banghead:
Have they perhaps modified the strike?
GP
dubiousinfo
27th-September-2006, 02:38 PM
Have they perhaps modified the strike?
GP
Nah strike is unmodified GP. They increase the extrinsic value leading up to an ex div date & then when it goes ex div, it drops back. Happens all the time. You just have to buy well before ex date.
bigdog
20th-November-2006, 08:11 AM
Todays Australian
BRAZILIAN steel maker Companhia Siderugica Nacional's pound stg. 5.3 billion ($13.25 billion) bid for Anglo-Dutch steel giant Corus could focus fresh attention on Australia's largest steel company, BlueScope, becoming a target as the much anticipated global consolidation of the steel industry gathers pace.
Ta-ta Anglo-Dutch may mean hello BlueScope
Andrew Trounson
November 20, 2006
BRAZILIAN steel maker Companhia Siderugica Nacional's pound stg. 5.3 billion ($13.25 billion) bid for Anglo-Dutch steel giant Corus could focus fresh attention on Australia's largest steel company, BlueScope, becoming a target as the much anticipated global consolidation of the steel industry gathers pace.
CSN's bid, subject to due diligence, trumps an agreed pound stg. 5.1 billion offer from India's Tata Steel and is expected to spark a bidding war, as Indian media reported that Tata could come back with a higher offer as soon as this week.
Tata has been cast as a potential predator for BlueScope, given the two have formed a joint venture in India to build steel-product manufacturing plants, and Tata could be expected to take a fresh look at the Australian company if beaten by CSN for Corus.
But while BlueScope's emerging downstream-focused Asian businesses may be attractive to Tata, bringing technology and new, high-value-added products such as prefabricated buildings, BlueScope lacks the global scale that is currently the prime driver of industry consolidation.
Nevertheless, in a report last week, Credit Suisse highlighted the potential appeal of BlueScope to Tata. "(Tata) has aggressive growth aspirations and continues to discuss its interest in strengthening its Asia-Pacific presence by expansions and acquisition," Credit Suisse noted.
BlueScope chief executive officer Kirby Adams is in Vietnam today to highlight that his Asian strategy, which has been troubled by higher costs and building delays, is now moving from the construction phase and into the delivery phase, with the opening of the company's new $136 million Phu My flat-steel metallic coating plant near Ho Chi Minh City.
The stakes have been raised in the global steel sector since the $US35 billion merger earlier this year of Mittal and Arcelor, the world's No1 and No2 producers, respectively. In terms of production, the two combined are three times the size of their nearest competitor, Japan's Nippon Steel.
bigdog
12th-December-2006, 09:15 AM
BSL SP has increased from $6.48 Oct 2 to $8.07 Dec 11 (24% increase)!!!
-- looking verygood!
Todays Australian
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,20911191-643,00.html
Boutique bank on right side of fence
Katherine Jimenez, Kevin Andrusiak
December 12, 2006
statements included:
Bell Potter director of research Peter Quinton said: "I suspect we are in for a good, solid year of merger and acquisition activity.
Mr Quinton listed more than 20 Australian companies which would probably attract some degree of private equity interest, including a mix of miners and industrial companies.
Those mentioned included Zinifex, Macquarie Airports, Bluescope, Computershare, Santos and Lend Lease.
bigdog
24th-January-2007, 08:39 AM
Todays Age:
Companies steel themselves for plan B as countdown clock runs down
Stephen Bartholomeusz
January 24, 2007
THE countdown has started. In exactly a week, OneSteel and Smorgon Steel will switch to their back-up merger plan, unless BlueScope Steel has a change of heart.
When OneSteel and Smorgon announced their contingency plan for their $1.6 billion merger in mid-December, they essentially invited BlueScope to either bid for Smorgon by January 3 or come back to the negotiating table by January 31.
The three steel companies had been trying to stare each other down since the middle of last year, when the merger was announced. That provoked a $320 million sharemarket raid by BlueScope that gave it 20 per cent of Smorgon and the effective ability to block the planned scheme of arrangement.
Merger proposal turns into a saga
Hank Spier
January 30, 2007
WHEN OneSteel and Smorgon Steel proposed their merger, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission issued a 15-page statement of issues — a series of red lights — expressing concern. Six months later, not one of those red lights has turned green.
The merger proposal is becoming a saga. In their latest incarnation of the deal on December 18, the proponents acknowledged there was little prospect of the original proposal proceeding.
But this week the ACCC is being asked to approve what is essentially the same deal, broken into stages — without the original misgivings being resolved. Are the parties "playing" with the ACCC?
Not surprisingly, the merger still faces major difficulties in obtaining clearance in its original scheme of arrangement announced last June 26, and the December 18 alternative deal structure. Hopefully the ACCC is very suspicious.
Throughout, OneSteel and Smorgon Steel have sought to make light of the ACCC and BlueScope Steel's 19.99 per cent blocking actions, but they did ask the ACCC in September to suspend its clearance decision-making process and, on December 18, they proposed a plan B merger structure.
The alternative structure seeks to avoid BlueScope's blocking stake by abandoning a scheme of arrangement and seeking to achieve the takeover by way of an asset sale, but contains nothing to deal with the ACCC's statement of issues. Those in the industry who expressed concerns about plan A are entitled to be frustrated.
In the ASX December 18 announcement, the parties were coy about their ACCC problems (and even more so about the contingent capital gains tax liabilities Smorgon Steel shareholders may face).
The parties may be hoping that by breaking the merger into steps, the ACCC might approve each step in isolation of the others — a not unknown tactic. If this is the strategy, it will be tested tomorrow, when the ACCC is due to decide on the first step in plan B — a pipe and tube joint venture.
OneSteel has been quite open in stating that plan B was designed to bring forward a merger and the realisation of some of the synergies the merger would deliver.
It is difficult to see Smorgons in any joint venture and, if cleared by the ACCC, plan A would be soon back on the table, yet a different table with part of what may be a "creeping" acquisition already in place.
That joint venture would permit OneSteel to acquire Smorgon's share of the joint venture — pipe and tube manufacturing — in a range of possible circumstances. These include where there is a change of control or where a major customer or supplier gains a seat on Smorgon's board.
It is hard to understand why the Smorgon Steel board would lock up a key part of its business by entering into the pipe and tube joint venture with OneSteel, before getting an answer from the ACCC on the balance of the merger proposal.
But it seems neither OneSteel nor Smorgon is keen to obtain the answer from the ACCC on their merger. Neither has answered the many issues the ACCC raised in August.
The ACCC had five "red light" issues and six "amber light" issues about the merger of Australia's only two long product steel manufacturers.
One ACCC red-light issue was reinforcing bar, rod and mesh, yet the parties' plan B still involves OneSteel acquiring all Smorgon's reinforcing bar, rod and mesh assets, including the reinforcing distribution business.
Another red-light issue was scrap metal. The parties have ignored the ACCC and surprisingly entered a five-year exclusive agreement for the supply of scrap. Again, plan B would result in Smorgon's scrap metal business sold to OneSteel
Steel distribution, another red-light issue, would be left with Smorgon, but Smorgon would be commercially dependent on its largest distribution competitor, OneSteel.
It is time for OneSteel and Smorgon Steel to inform the market properly about how and when they expect ACCC approval, and when might they begin to address the real red-light issues.
Hank Spier was a senior executive of the ACCC from 1983 to 2000.
bigdog
31st-January-2007, 04:06 PM
SP today BSL $8.61 -$0.12 -1.37%
ACCC okays OneSteel-Smorgon jv
January 31, 2007 - 2:19PM
http://www.smh.com.au/news/Business/ACCC-okays-OneSteelSmorgon-jv/2007/01/31/1169919387215.html
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) says it will not intervene in the proposed joint venture between OneSteel Ltd and Smorgon Steel Group Ltd.
Under a proposal launched in December, OneSteel plans to acquire about $1.1 billion in Smorgon assets, but not its distribution business.
The pair also will create a stand-alone joint venture to manufacture structural pipes and tubes, producing more than 500,000 tonnes a year and realising $10 million to $20 million in annual savings.
Chairman Graeme Samuel said market inquiries indicated that the pipe and tube products which the joint venture will produce are currently imported in significant quantities into Australia.
"The ACCC took into consideration the significant increase in the volume of imports in recent times and the increasing role they have played in competition in the relevant markets," he said.
"In addition, post-joint venture there will remain an independent domestic producer of pipe and tube products inOrrcon.
"The ACCC considers that the presence of Orrcon in conjunction with the availability of imported pipe and tube products is likely to act as a strong competitive constraint on the joint venture."
The ACCC said it had considered the role of anti-dumping applications on competition in pipe and tube markets.
But as the parties had offered an undertaking relatingto this issue, it had and formed the view that past anti-dumping actions did not appear to have impacted significantly on the ability of imports to compete in the market.
"Further, the ACCC did not consider that the proposed joint venture would provide the parties with any increased ability to inhibit imports by means of making anti-dumping applications," Mr Samuel said.
"As such, the ACCC did not consider it necessary toaccept the undertaking offered by OneSteel and Smorgon."
The ACCC added that it will consider any further arrangements between OneSteel and Smorgon when detailed proposals are put forward by the parties.
Under the revised proposal released in December, Smorgon Steel will continue as an independent, listed company with its distribution assets.
Its shareholders will retain their shares, receive a 6.2 cents-a-share dividend and between 0.2450 and 0.2711 OneSteel shares per Smorgon share - or one OneSteel share for about every four Smorgon shares held.
But when the revised proposal was unveiled last year, Australia's largest steelmaker BlueScope Steel Ltd, which has previously tried to block the merger and holds a 19.98 per cent blocking stake in Smorgon, said the deal was far from over.
At 1405 AEDT Smorgon's shares were steady at $1.83, OneSteel added six cents to $4.70 and BlueScope shed eight cents at $8.65.
bigdog
12th-February-2007, 10:04 PM
SP has been really increasing to 12 month high
Today closed at $9.3100 +$0.1500 +1.6%
Does anyone have an explantion why the SP is increasing steadily?
Are there any Indian visitors in Australia currently?
TheAge today
Bluescope H1 profit up 24% to $388m
February 26, 2007 - 9:24AM
Bluescope Steel Ltd has reported a rise in first-half profit but does not expect its second half result to be as strong as the first.
Australia's largest steel maker on Monday booked a 24 per cent rise in interim profit to $388 million.
"We do not currently expect our second-half financial result to be as strong as the first-half," the company said.
Nevertheless, BlueScope expects its full-year results to be a "significant improvement" over the previous year.
Last year, BlueScope reported a $338 million net profit, down from a record $982 million in the previous year.
BlueScope said second-half average prices for hot rolled coil and slab globally were expected to be moderately lower than first-half average prices.
"In North America, although scrap costs are rising and demand in the automotive and housing sectors is softening, we expect overall steel demand to slightly improve late in the second-half," BlueScope said.
BlueScope expects the Australian construction market to remain strong but says weakness will continue in the automotive and manufacturing sectors.
A strengthening of the Australian dollar may effect local sales volumes, Bluescope added.
ASX announcments today
BSL 8:28 AM First Half FY07 Results Presentation
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00696594
BSL 8:27 AM Half Year Accounts
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00696592
BSL 8:27 AM Half Year Earnings Report
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00696591
I hold BSL
bigdog
26th-February-2007, 10:04 AM
The market liked to ANN this morning and up 12 cents at very early trading first up
BlueScope open to revised merger deal
February 26, 2007 - 11:09AM
BlueScope Steel Ltd says it may support a revised scheme of arrangement between Smorgon Steel Group Ltd and OneSteel Ltd.
Smorgon and OneSteel announced earlier this month that they would press ahead with a revised merger plan after the previous proposal was stymied by the competition regulator and BlueScope.
"BlueScope remains open to supporting a Scheme of Arrangement," Australia's largest steelmaker said in its presentation slides for an analysts conference.
"However, at this stage, OneSteel and Smorgon have not proposed a revised structure that is acceptable to BlueScope."
The revised plan, announced in December, has Smorgon staying as an independent, listed entity. OneSteel is to buy $1.1 billion in Smorgon assets but not its distribution business.
The pair will create a structural tube and pipe joint venture, producing more than 500,000 tonnes a year, which already has clearance from the competition regulator.
BlueScope said the merger is facing hurdles including competition approval for the remaining parts of the deal, tax rulings, and possible value leakage in the new proposal.
But BlueScope also sent a stern warning to its two smaller rivals.
"BlueScope will continue to act to protect and enhance value for its shareholders," it said."
Earlier BlueScope reported a 24 per cent rise in interim profit to $388 million but said its second half result would be lower.
bigdog
20th-March-2007, 09:33 PM
I hope everyone is happy and the BSl SP continues to rise!
BlueScope, OneSteel, Smorgon strike deal
Email Print Normal font Large font March 20, 2007 - 6:09PM
Onesteel Ltd and Smorgon Steel Group Ltd have reached a deal with Australia's largest steelmaker BlueScope Steel Ltd, that will allow them to pursue a merger.
BlueScope says it won't oppose the merger in return for being able to buy Smorgon's distribution business, for an enterprise value of $700 million.
BlueScope now plans to conduct due diligence on the distribution business and formalise a sale and purchase agreement.
It will also assume the position of acquirer and resupplier of scrap for OneSteel's Sydney Steel Mill.
In exchange, BlueScope will vote in favour of a scheme of arrangement whereby OneSteel will buy all of Smorgon's shares for a OneSteel shares and possibly some cash.
But before the scheme becomes effective, OneSteel would buy BlueScope's 19.98 per cent stake in Smorgon Steel for a cash price equivalent to the value payable to Smorgon Steel shareholders under the scheme.
"The parties have a period expected to be approximately two weeks during which time they intend to conduct and finalise due diligence on Smorgon Steel Distribution and also to negotiate and finalise formal agreements for the acquisition," a joint statement from the three steelmakers said.
"If the parties are unable to reach agreement by the end of that period, or BlueScope is otherwise dissatisfied with the results of its due diligence investigations, the proposal and agreement in principle will terminate."
If that happens, Smorgon and OneSteel plan to continue with their alternative transaction announced on December 18, whereby OneSteel will buy all of Smorgon's businesses and assets, other than Smorgon Steel Distribution, which will continue as a listed entity.
The new proposal is still subject to a number of conditions, including approval from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC).
"Having regard to the new proposal and the agreement in principle, OneSteel and Smorgon Steel have today asked the ACCC to postpone consideration of the new transaction, pending confirmation that BlueScope's due diligence investigations on Smorgon Steel Distribution are satisfactory and the negotiation and formalisation of legal documentation for the proposal," the companies said.
"In those circumstances, a new submission to the ACCC will be made."
Broadway
20th-March-2007, 10:33 PM
I watch BSL fairly closely intraday and it is having a great ride lately, really bounces well from the couple of global corrections lately.
It seems to have 2 types of days recently, one is where it will follow bhp to every single spike and trough, to the minute.
There other is where it seems to detach fully from its big brother and represent a great day for the shorters.
I wonder if what you have mentioned about mergers etc will upset it's nice relationships it has at the moment. I certainly hope not.
Happy trading. :D
bigdog
16th-May-2007, 09:54 AM
Steelmaker may be a target, says Adams
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21738496-643,00.html
Steelmaker may be a target, says Adams
Andrew Trounson
May 16, 2007
BLUESCOPE Steel's soon-to-depart chief executive Kirby Adams said yesterday that navigating a rapidly consolidating global steel sector would be a key challenge for his successor and that the company itself was a potential target.
"Externally, the big issue confronting the company is what is happening in the global steel industry and the consolidation that is going on there," Mr Adams said yesterday.
With the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission set to rule next week on whether to approve a carve-up of Smorgon Steel between BlueScope and OneSteel, Mr Adams said local consolidation was one way of striving to stay globally competitive.
He said that the Australian industry was tiny by global standards, consuming about 8million tonnes a year, compared with record annual global demand of 1.2 billion tonnes.
Mittal's $US44 billion takeover of European steel giant Arcelor last year has sparked a round of consolidation in the sector. India's Tata steel this year acquired Corus Steel for $US13 billion, while US Steel has forked out $US2.1 billion for specialist steel products maker Lone Star Technologies.
"Clearly we are seeing consolidation in the industry in global terms at an unprecedented rate," Mr Adams said.
BlueScope is expected to name a successor at its full-year results in August, and Mr Adams is scheduled to step down in October. All internal candidates have been interviewed by the board, with the leading contenders including Australian manufacturing chief Brian Kruger, North American boss Lance Hockridge and chief financial officer Paul O'Malley. But an external candidate has not yet been ruled out.
The ACCC is due to make its decision on May 23, with the key risk to the Smorgon deal being if it decided import competition would be insufficient to counteract OneSteel becoming dominant in long steel products like rods, bars and wire.
The BSL share price has been very good for the 2007
-- Jan 10 $8.02 and May 15 $12.33 with all time high $12.65 yesterday May 15
Date Close Volume
15-May-07 12.33 2,852,651
14-May-07 12.41 1,814,662
11-May-07 12.07 2,177,466
04-May-07 12.26 2,430,445
27-Apr-07 11.69 3,695,119
20-Apr-07 11.64 1,447,752
13-Apr-07 11.35 1,772,199
05-Apr-07 10.92 949,409
30-Mar-07 10.50 7,054,880
23-Mar-07 9.95 1,982,345
16-Mar-07 9.77 3,835,982
09-Mar-07 9.40 2,240,752
02-Mar-07 9.22 4,426,266
23-Feb-07 9.75 5,647,314
16-Feb-07 9.46 6,072,611
09-Feb-07 9.16 3,420,837
02-Feb-07 8.72 1,318,759
19-Jan-07 8.18 1,363,401
12-Jan-07 8.30 2,408,038
11-Jan-07 8.13 2,715,422
10-Jan-07 8.02 4,877,880
Bluescope has big Indon plans
May 21, 2007 12:00am
BLUESCOPE Steel Ltd is going to reinvigorate its Indonesian growth story with a $122.65 million investment in a new metallic coating line.
The thin-gauge coils are used primarily in residential construction, which accounts for half of BlueScope's Indonesian business compared with 30 per cent five years ago.
"This market continues to experience strong growth in both the residential and commercial building sectors," BlueScope president Indonesia and Malaysia Rob Crawford said.
"BlueScope Steel Indonesia is operating at full capacity, so the new, dedicated line will lead to improved efficiency, increased scale and an ability to support our customers' market growth."
The new line will be at Cilegon, about 100km west of the capital Jakarta and is expected to be operational by the end of calendar 2009.
The original construction, on which BlueScope has already spent $14.6 million, was postponed last year after the steelmaker decided to focus on projects already under way in Asia.
"We are delighted to recommence this investment, given the continued strength of the Indonesian market and the high regard for BlueScope Steel product," said BlueScope Steel chief executive Kirby Adams.
Mr Adams is due to retire in October.
"Indonesia, the world's fourth most populous country, is a key market in our growing Asian business," he said.
"This project represents a strong endorsement from our board of BlueScope Steel's Asian growth strategy."
The total additional metal coated output will be 130,000 tonnes a year and the additional painted output will be 100,000 tonnes a year, taking the total coated output to 265,000 tonnes and painted output to about 160,000 tonnes a year.
BlueScope entered the Indonesian market about 34 years ago, and has made investments totalling about $250 million.
PT BlueScope Steel Indonesia is the country's only local manufacturer of zinc/aluminium metallic-coated and pre-painted steel, with plants at Cilegon, Cibitung, Medan and Surabaya.
BlueScope shares ended 13 cents, or one per cent, higher at $11.98.
Back home, BlueScope is preparing for a determination from the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission this week on its proposed acquisition of the distribution business of its smaller rival Smorgon Steel Group Ltd for $700 million.
The agreement brought to an end months of wrangling between the three parties, after BlueScope snapped up 19.98 per cent of Smorgon for $320 million, to block the $1.6 billion friendly merger of OneSteel and Smorgon.
OneSteel will buy the remaining Smorgon businesses, if regulatory clearance is given to the deal.
bigdog
23rd-May-2007, 01:11 PM
I can only guess the downward trend of the SP for the past week may relates to possible outcome of the "A.C.C.C. CONTINUES DISCUSSIONS WITH STEEL MERGER PARTIES" ASX ann today!!
ASX ann today:
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission today announced that it was continuing discussions with the parties involved in the proposals to acquire Smorgon.
The focus of those discussions will be to address unresolved issues between the ACCC and parties that relate to the effectiveness of imports as a competitive constraint.
The ACCC expects to announce a decision shortly, subject to the progress and the outcome of those discussions.
nomore4s
23rd-May-2007, 01:28 PM
I can only guess the downward trend of the SP for the past week may relates to possible outcome of the "A.C.C.C. CONTINUES DISCUSSIONS WITH STEEL MERGER PARTIES" ASX ann today!!
ASX ann today:
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission today announced that it was continuing discussions with the parties involved in the proposals to acquire Smorgon.
The focus of those discussions will be to address unresolved issues between the ACCC and parties that relate to the effectiveness of imports as a competitive constraint.
The ACCC expects to announce a decision shortly, subject to the progress and the outcome of those discussions.
Bigdog, it's interesting that OST is up this week and up 12c today even with this news & ssx is about even today.
bigdog
7th-June-2007, 02:24 PM
Great news today for BSL with ASX ANN
-- lets see what now happens to the SP after the decline of the past weeks!!
BSL $10.76 +$0.10 +0.94% high $10.92 and low of $10.51 2,279,887 shares $24,362,520 @ 07-Jun 14:11:36
07-06-2007 02:10 PM BSL SSX/OST/BSL transactions cleared by ACCC
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00728017
Smorgon Steel / OneSteel / BlueScope Steel transactions cleared by ACCC 7 June 2007
The Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (“ACCC”) announced today that it will not oppose either the proposed merger between Smorgon Steel and OneSteel ("Merger") or the proposed acquisition by BlueScope Steel of the Smorgon Steel Distribution Businesses ("BlueScope Acquisition"). Accordingly, BlueScope Steel, Smorgon Steel and OneSteel confirm that the ACCC conditions to implementation of the proposal, which includes the Merger and the BlueScope Acquisition, are now satisfied.
The ACCC decision follows the provision of revised undertakings by OneSteel relating to unsuccessful anti-dumping applications in relation to specified products made or supported by OneSteel over the next five years.
Smorgon Steel has lodged a draft Scheme Book with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission (“ASIC”) and, subject to ASIC’s review of the document, an application to convene meetings of shareholders to consider the Scheme of Arrangement will be heard by the Supreme Court of Victoria as soon as possible.
Smorgon Steel expects that, subject to completion of these remaining processes, it will issue a detailed Scheme Book to shareholders before the end of June and that a shareholder meeting to consider the Scheme will be held before the end of July.
Fitch affirms Bluescope BBB-plus rating
June 13, 2007 - 11:49AM
Fitch Ratings has removed Bluescope Steel Ltd from its rating watch negative status after the corporate watchdog approved the consolidation of assets of the three major Australian steel producers.
Fitch on Wednesday affirmed Bluescope's BBB-plus issuer default rating and said the outlook for the company was stable.
Last week, the Australian Competition and Consumer Commission (ACCC) cleared the way for Bluescope, Smorgon Steel Group and OneSteel Ltd to consolidate their assets into two groups.
BlueScope will buy Smorgon's distribution business for about $700 million and OneSteel will merge with the rest of Smorgon's assets, for $1.1 billion.
It's Snake Pliskin
21st-June-2007, 01:23 AM
Has BSL now turned its decline. I think it is too early to say but yesterday gave some good action without over supply and a bounce off two points of interest for me. I am watching for an entry.
reece55
21st-June-2007, 01:34 AM
I'm with you Snake.
It seems to have retraced just above the previous waves peak at 10.10~ ish level, which just happens to be around about (just below) the previous all time highs before this move established in Feb 05 at 10.20 or so.
BSL is a stock in a great long term up trend, now could prove to be an attractive entry point. Maybe a little more patience is required, but we are nearly there.....
Cheers
bigdog
21st-June-2007, 10:10 AM
Bluescope SP is doing well first up this morning up 10 cents
It seems to have retraced just above the previous waves peak at 10.10~ ish level, which just happens to be around about (just below) the previous all time highs before this move established in Feb 05 at 10.20 or so.
BSL is a stock in a great long term up trend, now could prove to be an attractive entry point. Maybe a little more patience is required, but we are nearly there.....
Cheers
Hi reece,
I just took an entry @ $10.45. I am running a tight stop on this so won't be surprised if I stop out. If it stops out though it may tank further. I place emphasis on my entries and initial stops - if they survive I am in the money:)
Enjoy your day.
Regards
Snake
reece55
21st-June-2007, 07:33 PM
Hi reece,
I just took an entry @ $10.45. I am running a tight stop on this so won't be surprised if I stop out. If it stops out though it may tank further. I place emphasis on my entries and initial stops - if they survive I am in the money:)
Enjoy your day.
Regards
Snake
Snake......
Took a small entry myself at 10.45, exactly the same as you........
My next entry target to extend my exposure was 10.60, but we hit that at the close. Potential commencement of a wave 5 here.....
Cheers
It's Snake Pliskin
22nd-June-2007, 12:08 AM
Snake......
Took a small entry myself at 10.45, exactly the same as you........
My next entry target to extend my exposure was 10.60, but we hit that at the close. Potential commencement of a wave 5 here.....
Cheers
Hi Reece,
Good move. It was up on impressive volume today especially at the close.
I will pyramid my position.
Happy hunting.:)
Snake
It's Snake Pliskin
9th-July-2007, 12:52 PM
Hi Reece,
Good move. It was up on impressive volume today especially at the close.
Hi Snake
I got stopped out back down at 10.5 ish from memory, bit of a pity really because it has certainly moved nicely. Too tight on the stop here, still seems valid that a wave 5 could be on it's way here....
All the best in the position mate..
Cheers
Reece
bigdog
31st-July-2007, 01:11 PM
The market did not like todays news!!
SP is currently down
BSL $11.09 -$0.26 -2.29% high $11.36, low $11.08 1,295,389 shares $14,559,388 @ 31-Jul 12:59:14
Todays press
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22164226-5006368,00.html
Smorgon shareholders back break-up
July 31, 2007 10:43am
SHAREHOLDERS have backed the break-up of Smorgon Steel Group by OneSteel and BlueScope Steel at a meeting in Melbourne.
Chairman Graham Smorgon told the meeting 99.75 per cent of proxies supported the break-up.
Votes from shareholders present at the meeting are expected to push support for the break-up to more than 99.8 per cent, with the final result to be announced to the ASX shortly.
"It is a sad day when I think back to the start of this company and where it's come from and where it's going to," Mr Smorgon told reporters after the meeting.
"But under these circumstances, it's the right thing for shareholders and so it's got to be done."
Under the break-up arrangement, BlueScope will acquire Smorgon's distribution business for about $700 million and OneSteel will pick up the rest of Smorgon's assets for $1.1 billion.
An independent expert's report carried out by Grant Samuel & Associates has deemed the merger as being in the interests of Smorgon's shareholders.
Mr Smorgon said consolidation in the steel industry was inevitable.
"Australia's a very small market and it's just not big enough to sustain the growth that's necessary in steel," he said.
"Steel is back in favour and I think there will be further consolidation worldwide."
BlueScope 'unaffected' by housing slump
August 3, 2007 - 11:50AM
BlueScope Steel Ltd outgoing chief executive Kirby Adams says the business is not being affected by the US housing slump.
"We've not seen any crossover contagion from the US housing slump into our business," Mr Adams said.
"From our point of view the North American housing market remains good."
Mr Adams' comments were made at a press conference ahead of the expected confirmation of BlueScope's buy of the distribution business of Smorgon Steel Group Ltd.
BlueScope's Butler Manufacturing in the US produces steel building systems.
Mr Adams also reiterated that the company has had informal approaches over the years, but indicated that there had been no firm takeover proposals, explaining: "There's been a lot of flirting and no diamond ring".
At 1131 AEST on Friday BlueScope's shares were down one cent at $10.58.
bigdog
4th-August-2007, 09:32 AM
BlueScope Steel rejects talk that takeover offers have rolled in
Tan Hwee Ann
August 4, 2007
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/bluescope-steel-rejects-talk-that-takeover-offers-have-rolled-in/2007/08/03/1185648147722.html?page=fullpage
BLUESCOPE Steel says it has not received any takeover offers, following speculation it may be the next company to receive a bid in the industry.
"There's been a lot of flirting but no diamond ring," said Kirby Adams, chief executive of the Melbourne-based company. "There's no secret that there's been a number of approaches over the past few years." Late last month, The Australian Financial Review said Arcelor Mittal, the world's largest steel maker, might be considering a bid for BlueScope.
Higher steel prices have prompted takeover offers worth $US34 billion ($A39.6 billion) in the industry this year, according to Bloomberg data.
BlueScope yesterday won court approval to buy the distribution unit of rival Smorgon Steel Group for $520 million.
This meant BlueScope was buying the unit at six to seven times its annual earnings, Mr Adams said.
Mr Adams also said the company's US Butler business unit, which provides products for commercial and industrial projects, had not been affected by the slowdown in the US housing market.
Butler and architectural products accounted for 6 per cent of pre-tax earnings for the half ended December 31.
"We haven't seen any crossover contagion," Mr Adams said. "From our view, the North American market remains good and we're very pleased with our performance there."
The US is mired in the worst housing recession in 16 years. Purchases of new houses fell 6.6 per cent in June, the biggest drop since January, the US Government said last month.
BlueScope produces hot-rolled steel coil, a benchmark product, which is processed to make pipes and tubes and is used in cars and buildings.
It also paints, coats and processes steel, which it turns into roofs, fences and walls.
BlueScope Steel doubles profit
By Isabelle Oderberg
August 20, 2007 11:04am
BLUESCOPE Steel has doubled annual earnings and says it has started the new year well due to ongoing strong demand in the global steel market. Australia's biggest steelmaker made a fiscal 2007 net profit of $686 million, up 103 per cent from $338 million in the prevous year.
Revenue jumped 11 per cent from $8.031 billion to $8.913 billion, on the back of higher prices, a better product mix in exports and higher sales at home and in Asia and the US.
Earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (EBITDA) rose 67 per cent to $1.423 billion.
Outgoing chief executive Kirby Adams said the outlook for fiscal 2008 was positive.
"This year, the global steel market was very strong with the forecast for global steel demand remaining positive," he said.
"China, the USA and Europe are driving this healthy outlook.
"Asia now produces more than half of all the crude steel produced in the world, and China is the largest single market for steel and has the strongest demand growth of any country."
Mr Adams said while the Chinese Government had been working to eliminate inefficient mills and reduce exports, it had not significantly slowed production.
In Australia, BlueScope had started fiscal 2008 well with a stronger Australian dollar, a stable global steel price environment and high metal coating costs.
"Asian markets and opportunities are slightly improved, and the operational ramp-up of new sites is growing revenue while coated product margins continue to be under pressure, particularly in China," he said.
"We will continue to aggressively manage those factors over which we have control, including focusing on safety and environment, containing costs, improving our processes, achieving volume and production efficiencies, and optimising mix and margins.
"Clearly, our global footprint and the diversity of our product lines will be of benefit going forward."
Earlier this mont, BlueScope announced that Mr Adams will be succeeded by chief financial officer Paul O'Malley in November.
Mr Adams said his last annual result as chief executive was pleasing with "excellent" operational performances across all businesses, including production records.
"All business reporting segments were profitable, with Port Kembla Steelworks continuing to be the profit and cash flow engine of the company," he said.
"Pleasingly, our Asian portfolio exhibited substantial volume growth as new operations in China, Vietnam, Thailand and India were commissioned and ramped up.
"Margin compression in our mid-stream metallic coating and painting businesses prevailed through most of the year, as these businesses confronted huge increases in zinc costs and growing exports from expanding north Asian production."
BlueScope also revealed that a 19.9 per cent stake in Smorgon Steel Group, which it bought in August 2006, to block the smaller group's takeover by rival OneSteel, had cost it $319 million.
A gain of around $128 million will be recognised in its 2008 earnings on the sale of the shares back to OneSteel.
The share purchase helped BlueScope forge its involvement in the sector's consolidation, winning Smorgon's distribution business for around $700 million and leaving the rest of the company to OneSteel.
Mr Adams said global consolidation in the steel industry will continue, following Mittal's acquisition of Arcelor, Tata's purchase of Corus and more recently, Ternium's acquisition of Grupo IMSA.
"One of the principal benefits of this consolidation is better matching of production to demand as well as global economies of scale and marketing," Mr Adams said.
"I expect this consolidation process to continue its momentum over the next couple of years."
BlueScope also said it balance sheet gearing had dropped to 28 per cent, from 38 per cent, giving it a "very strong financial platform" for continuing growth.
Bluescope, which was spun out of BHP Billiton Ltd five years ago, declared a final dividend of 26 cents for the year ended June 30.
The total dividend for the year was 47 cents, up seven per cent on fiscal 2006.
bigdog
13th-October-2007, 09:07 AM
BSL SP has increased 9.35% in past the 13 days to $11.34
Date------ Close Inc%.. Volume....
12-Oct-07 11.34 0.35% 2,353,991
11-Oct-07 11.30 1.25% 2,790,955
10-Oct-07 11.16 2.10% 3,521,942
09-Oct-07 10.93 -0.64% 4,591,108
08-Oct-07 11.00 0.18% 2,740,299
05-Oct-07 10.98 0.46% 1,223,553
04-Oct-07 10.93 -3.02% 2,787,984
03-Oct-07 11.27 4.26% 5,141,747
01-Oct-07 10.81 0.56% 1,460,368
28-Sep-07 10.75 1.03% 8,684,943
27-Sep-07 10.64 1.33% 4,844,296
26-Sep-07 10.50 1.25% 4,832,450
25-Sep-07 10.37 ----- 4,848,296
Bluescope an attractive takeover target - analyst
http://www.news.com.au/adelaidenow/story/0,22606,22574357-5006368,00.html
Article from: AAP
October 12, 2007 03:43pm
STEEL producer Bluescope Steel could easily be swallowed by a larger rival in a deal potentially worth up to $8.5 billion.
Research from brokerage JP Morgan lists Bluescope as an attractive target within the steel industry, which has seen a spate of takeovers in the past few years.
"BlueScope is of a size that could be relatively easily purchased and integrated into a number of larger steel producers,'' JP Morgan said in a client note.
"We do not rule out the possibility of a takeover bid for Bluescope, we are cautious, however, on the magnitude of the premium that could likely be paid.''
JP Morgan said Bluescope's established downstream operations across Southern Asia and upstream operations in Australia, the United States and New Zealand made the company an attractive target.
Using financial figures from calendar 2005, JP Morgan assumes an implied takeover price of $11.67 for every Bluescope share, valuing a potential deal at $8.5 billion.
The brokerage examined a number of recent major recent steel transaction and used the 2005 figures to ensure all of the companies in the sample were experiencing similar steel price conditions.
The global steel industry has undergone a flurry of consolidation over the past five years, underscored by Mittal's acquisition of large European rival Arcelor, positioning the company as the dominant producer globally.
There has also been a string of acquisitions among the mid-sized steel producers as companies seek to consolidate their regional positions and expand into new markets.
"BlueScope is truly a niche producer on a global scale and the larger steel producers would seemingly have little difficulty in acquiring it,'' JP Morgan said.
"Given the almost monotonous procession of large acquisitions seen within the global steel sector over the last five years, a consistent theme that has emerged around BlueScope Steel is the possibility of it being bid for in the near future and the size of a potential takeover premium.''
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
However, JP Morgan rates the stock as underweight on 11/10/2007 and has set an underweight rating, but warns of consensus downgrades as a result of a rising $A.
sfx
19th-October-2007, 09:15 PM
BSL on a downturn today - media manipulation here ?! Australian Financial Review had a negative article today about BSL losing $100 per tonne on sales to China....
YELNATS
19th-October-2007, 09:31 PM
[B]Using financial figures from calendar 2005, JP Morgan assumes an implied takeover price of $11.67 for every Bluescope share, valuing a potential deal at $8.5 billion.
I wonder if BSL directors would recommend acceptance to shareholders of a takeover bid of only A$11.67 per share. BSL has been as high as $12.65 in the last 12 months. The JP Morgan 2005 figures are now 2 years old and therefore an offer of $11.67 looks a little low and may not recognise the company's potential to add further value in future years.
long$$
21st-October-2007, 10:10 PM
Does anyone understand Bluescope's China strategy. If they are losing $100/tonne (as reported in the Fin Rev, & explaining their ~4% drop in price) leading up to the Olympics, what chance do they have of improving on this?
sfx
22nd-October-2007, 08:39 PM
I don't have the full article but in the AFR printed 19th Oct, the article went something along the lines of the following:
"Bluescope's experiment in Asia proves costly
BlueScope Steel's investments in Asian steel product manufacturing plants have largely failed to meet expectations. The company has invested approximately $A1 billion in the plants since its sharemarket float. However, BlueScope is currently losing an estimated $A100 on each tonne of steel that it processes and sells in China. There is speculation the situation could worsen further as rising raw material prices place increasing pressure on margins."
bigdog
30th-November-2007, 08:22 AM
The market liked yesterday's ANN with SP BSL ▲ 4.44% .. $0.420 .. $9.879
Todays MARKET MOVERS SNAPSHOT (The Age site updated hourly)
http://markets.theage.com.au/apps/mkt/movers.ac
BlueScope to streamline balance sheet
Andrew Trounson | November 30, 2007
BLUESCOPE Steel's new chief executive Paul O'Malley is looking to find $200 million in balance sheet efficiencies, including property sales, to offset lost earnings from an extended maintenance shutdown of its key Port Kembla steelworks in 2009.
The 100-day shutdown of one of Port Kembla's two blast furnaces for a reline is expected to cost $100-$200 million in lost earnings before interest and tax and Mr O'Malley wants to move to compensate that by selling or leasing non-core properties, reducing inventories and cutting working capital.
"We believe there is enough cash that we can realise from the balance sheet to offset that," Mr O'Malley said.
The plan is part of Mr O'Malley's "blueprint" for BlueScope following the retirement last month of Kirby Adams.
Mr O'Malley's strategy includes promoting and developing new steel building products and "reinvigorating" the Australian business through the integration of the Smorgon steel distribution business, as well as what he calls a "stronger customer emphasis".
Mr O'Malley said he was committed to growing the Asian and North American businesses, with a focus on expanding operations and pursuing bolt-on acquisitions, rather than pursue greenfield developments.
Under Mr Adams, BlueScope built new manufacturing operations in Asia to position the company to benefit from rising steel demand in the region and Mr O'Malley now appears focused on consolidating that position. He is looking for the downstream business in Asia to grow, to pull through more products and to eventually support manufacturing expansions.
"We are certainly not moving away from our focus in either North America or Asia," he said.
But Mr O'Malley said its steel coating plants in China and Vietnam were underperforming. In China the operation was suffering from cutthroat local competition, while Vietnam was not performing as well as expected.
Mr O'Malley has appointed Charlie Elias as his successor as chief financial officer. Mr Elias is currently CFO at Linfox Logistics and will join in February. Like Mr O'Malley, Mr Elias is a former senior executive at TXU Australia.
"Charlie has domestic and international experience and has led a variety of large merger and acquisition transactions," Mr O'Malley said. "His key focus will be to drive effective capital management and to identify and pursue sustainable growth opportunities throughout our global footprint."
BlueScope said the long-term demand outlook for steel was strong, with the Middle East and Russia using more of its building products.
"Demand, we think, will be sustained for a long period of time," Mr O'Malley said.
dan-o
2nd-September-2008, 10:53 AM
It seems no-one has been talking about this one for a while. What do people think? It seems a good way to leverage the china story, good dividend, etc...
deadset
2nd-September-2008, 02:57 PM
I think its the best of the steel producers, and they have alot of demand from the US for their products too.
If anyone can find a graph of steel prices, I'd be very appreciative, its very hard to find on the internet it seems.
I've been going from here, but a free graph would be much better than just a daily price : http://www.steelbb.com/steelprices/
It boggles the mind that the steel price isn't reported much IMO, considering the effect on some of our companies.
I've been accumulating this stock, so I'm wary of steel price changes.
I have noticed that the commodity indexes can change without affecting steel prices, there seems to be a slight decoupling from other metal prices.
(for future reference)
Rebar world price is $1046/t today.
BSL $9.21
cruise61
11th-October-2008, 03:17 PM
What a great oppatunity to get into BSL cheap.
Cant believe i got in at 5.7
With a little luck they may swing a little lower and i can grab some more but hard too see that happening now after looking at US markets slight loss last night and G7 measures being put in place
Monday will tell :0)
Either way im in for the long haul :D
michael_selway
11th-October-2008, 03:20 PM
What a great oppatunity to get into BSL cheap.
Cant believe i got in at 5.7
With a little luck they may swing a little lower and i can grab some more but hard too see that happening now after looking at US markets slight loss last night and G7 measures being put in place
These shares should be sitting much higher ,they are a very strong company with awsome npt and expected increas this year.
Might be one to keep a very close eye on exp now :0)
Just a thought
Roll on tuesday let the ride continue :D
cruise61
15th-October-2008, 01:14 AM
:D
These shares should be sitting much higher ,they are a very strong company with awsome npt and expected increas this year.
Might be one to keep a very close eye on exp now :0)
Just a thought
Roll on tuesday let the ride continue :D
Full financials out today ,not a bad effort at all.
Shares down again today but they will bounce back:D:D
kennas
15th-October-2008, 01:58 AM
Roll on tuesday let the ride continue :DYep, off 2.4% while the rest of the market did ok.
:D
Full financials out today ,not a bad effort at all.
Shares down again today but they will bounce back:D:DThey may be off because of the likely downturn in demand from China next year.
Sounds like they'll be OK in the first half though.
BlueScope warns of steel demand drop (http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,24497900-36418,00.html)
October 15, 2008
AUSTRALIA'S largest steelmaker, BlueScope Steel, has forecast a strong first half, but warns that the market turmoil may affect demand.
Chief executive Paul O'Malley said the company expected a good 2008-09 first half, but the high cost of raw materials would affect its Australian business.
"The ongoing crisis in the financial markets may affect funding of commercial and industrial projects, dampening demand, although the weaker US dollar has provided some boost to manufacturing exports from the US," Mr O'Malley said in the company's annual report.
European and Asian steelmakers are reducing output on weaker demand. Four major Chinese mills -- accounting for 15 per cent of the country's capacity -- will cut October crude steel output by 20 per cent.
Mr O'Malley said demand for BlueScope's products remained solid, but the residential segment continued to be "soft". BlueScope closed down 14c at $5.66.
Gav was asking how just 4 steel mills lowering output was going to be significant in China when there are hundreds of them. I guess they must be pretty big one's and perhaps a sign others will follow.
:2twocents
dan-o
16th-October-2008, 11:34 AM
This continues to fall...
Do people think they can maintain their dividend yield next year? getting close to 10%FF at this price...
cruise61
17th-October-2008, 11:21 PM
The current share price does not reflect on bluescopes forcast for 09
All steel related industries are feeling the bight but Bluescpe had a nice profit 08 and are in a very good position to ride out the storm.
Personally i think they are way under valued as lets face it people will always want new cars and houses its the nature of the beast to want what your mates got ,or if my neighbor can afford a new car i can .
They are AUST biggest steel maker exporter , they have made a 10 year deal with BHP for ore at below market rates ,so that alone says to me they will be around well after the meltdown is over.
I am more than content to sit on my shares for a year or 2 and watch them grow back to a fair and decent price and i may even increase my portfolio
Some good deals out there at the moment :D:D
cruise61
20th-October-2008, 05:06 AM
Been pondering over this one a bit not sure just yet ,lets hope i dont leave run late ,this was an article fri 17th oct
Company overview
Real-time quote
BSL.AX , 4.400, -0.200, -4.350%) as Outperform - The broker notes there are rumours the group's US operations are cutting production and it will look for an update on this at next month's AGM. It makes no changes to its numbers on this basis but has cut its forecasts to reflect commodity steel price weakness. Despite the earnings changes there is no change to the broker's Outperform rating or $8.00 price target.
Makes it hard to go past when it sits half that :banghead: decisions decisions :D
chops_a_must
20th-October-2008, 05:16 AM
I was at a family friends steel business on the weekend, and they reckon things are looking pretty bad.
They've had a great run over the last few years here in Perth, but apparently the last 2 weeks have been absolutely shocking. Things drying up from all ends.
I was seriously looking at BSL before I heard that. Probably wont be now...
cruise61
20th-October-2008, 12:56 PM
I was at a family friends steel business on the weekend, and they reckon things are looking pretty bad.
They've had a great run over the last few years here in Perth, but apparently the last 2 weeks have been absolutely shocking. Things drying up from all ends.
I was seriously looking at BSL before I heard that. Probably wont be now...
Yeh agreed i think the last 2 weeks have been shocking for all off us :banghead:
I think with the new first home buyers grant increase that should help the industry a bit.
Guess the good thing about bluescope is their stabilty in the market and there cash flow .
Could be a good long termer?
Guess time will tell:D
kingyuri
11th-December-2008, 07:13 PM
So this one has fallen to a 12 month low today after the share placement with a loss of value of over 25%. This captures the capital raising, and I expect the resignation of the Exec - so to me this looks like an interesting one to watch. Would expect it to bounce back a little like RIO - could be money to make in the short term if you're willing the gamble!!
Stomper
12th-December-2008, 12:29 PM
I expect the resignation of the Exec
Which Exec is going to resign and why........................................?
Not sure you can place the blame for the share price fall on the head of any executive - given that it was pumped up on the back of demand exceeding supply and a positive growth outlook.
The collapse of global demand due to the Credit Crisis can hardly be blamed on these executives. I'm more interested in how the BSL Executives are handling the crisis and are they the best ones placed to protect shareholder value under these circumstances.
The ones that should be held accountable are those in the financial community who have been negligent or at worst, fraudulent.
kingyuri
12th-December-2008, 10:26 PM
Straight from bluescopesteel.com:
BlueScope Steel today advised that Mr Paul Rizzo, has resigned for personal reasons unrelated to the company. The resignation is effective from today.
BlueScope Steel Chairman, Mr Graham Kraehe AO, said the company's succession plan had been for Mr Doug Jukes to take over from Mr Rizzo, as Chair of the company's Audit and Risk Committee. This appointment is effective from today.
Never good news... hope there's nothing untoward..
alphaman
12th-December-2008, 10:53 PM
The collapse of global demand due to the Credit Crisis can hardly be blamed on these executives.
True. But in the same vein, why did the execs take credit when BSL "was pumped up on the back of demand exceeding supply and a positive growth outlook"?
With so much literature on performance measurement and compensation, you would have expected the directors to have it figured out by now. But it seems that all the directors do are making sure their mates get paid well. And they complain about the burden of complying with corporate governance.
white_crane
14th-December-2008, 03:49 PM
There has been huge volume on BSL in the last two days. Might be worth a punt for a short term gain.
M34N
25th-February-2009, 09:43 PM
Another stock I've been watching closely is BSL. This one closed today at a record low, that is in the 7 years or so it has been listed it has never seen this price. Will be interesting to see where it finds a floor.
Today's price action was very disturbing, and seeing it go from +4% at the open to -7.5% at the close says a lot. Either it rebounds hard from here or we could see some selling well under the $2.00 range. Waiting to see some signs of a bottom with solid volume before entering a long position. Doesn't look like there are many short positions open on BSL either so it most likely seems to be long-term investors piling out.
Been under performing a lot over the past couple weeks. I understand their profit results released the other day were pretty ordinary, but did they warrant these falls? Anyone else watching this or have an opinion?
M34N
26th-April-2009, 07:15 PM
So another month or two have passed since it bottomed at around $2.05, and it still looks a bit shaky IMO. Watching the EMA it looks to be narrowing and seems (slightly) more bullish than before, and the volume has been on the increase slowly since then. Seems to be trending down in this channel for the past 6 months and hitting lower highs wit lower lows.
Have traded this one a couple times in the past few weeks for a few $, and has interestingly been traveling mostly sideways in the past month while the rest of the market has mostly gone higher. Says a lot about these types of stocks, doesn't it? Also noticed a couple brokers in the weekend papers recommending a sell on BSL and OST, a sign to buy in? Reckon it could bounce a little from here for some reason, mostly a gut feeling, but $3.00 level would be a serious level of resistance. Looks like a narrowing trading band with a bias downwards, so either another big drop from here or a breakout to the upside? Watching eagerly on this one.
ands
29th-April-2009, 11:37 AM
Well she was being sold down yesterday and it is continuing today. No news out. What's going on? There seems to be no support!
Taltan
29th-April-2009, 03:45 PM
Looks to me like another share dilution scheme is on the way. After the last raising at $3.10 prior to the release of bad results investors probably aren't exactly in awe of management
ands
29th-April-2009, 04:17 PM
BSL.AX , 2.290, -0.200, -8.030%) dropped 4.8 percent to A$2.37 and its main rival OneSteel (OST.AX , 2.090, -0.180, -7.930%) fell 4.4 percent to A$2.17, partly on worries about the costs of a carbon trading scheme due to start in Australia next year. A report in The Australian newspaper said BlueScope chairman Graham Kraehe attacked the continued commitment to an emissions trading plan and said it could cost thousands of jobs.
This might explain it...
M34N
29th-April-2009, 04:23 PM
I'll be looking to buy in on BSL at somewhere around 2.00, if the trend down continues, I would be expecting a solid bounce off that price. Unless of course the rumours of a share selling scheme are true and it is much lower than being factored in at the moment. I've heard other rumours floating around about BSL but won't speculate on it as the forum does not permit that, but they sound interesting and it has caught my attention!
ands; I don't think it's the carbon scheme affecting the price this much, the share placement scheme seems to be the catalyst here for it IMO, it started yesterday before this report was published.
johannlo
29th-April-2009, 04:40 PM
I think if you go long term anything below 3 is a decent buy. I got in at 2.60 and don't regret it even with today's savaging.
Of course if you are a trader then obviously theres lots of better ways to make money quicker. But for a relatively low risk, long term pick BSL looks pretty good in my eyes (way better than OST). P/E of 2 for our biggest steelmaker and distributor is insane.
ands
29th-April-2009, 08:24 PM
I'll be looking to buy in on BSL at somewhere around 2.00, if the trend down continues, I would be expecting a solid bounce off that price.
Hope you don't get your $2 target... ;) bought yesterday at $2.54 and have endured 2 days of pain. Just glad I took my profits when I held it from $8 to $11.22. Still a quality company, will be good long term, but will be interesting to see their next results report...
Albi
29th-April-2009, 09:25 PM
hi
After reading recommandations and watching everyday lower to lowest, I sold my stock in big loss at 2.60. But thanks god I sold it earlier otherwise:banghead: for not selling. I feel it will go around 2$ or might be less.
ands
5th-May-2009, 11:01 AM
Sold yesterday at $2.565 (emissions scheme, debt, rumours of a spp, all became too much) and now they go into a trading halt and announce a 1 for 1 SPP plan offer at $1.55. Does not look good for current SP. 40% discount! Maybe I can jump in again soon. :rolleyes:
captluthra
5th-May-2009, 11:16 AM
How do you think its going to open on thursday. Up or Down. And after 1 for 1 offer how is the stock price going to be impacted.
MrBurns
5th-May-2009, 11:18 AM
I made a small loss on them a few weeks ago, everything else has gone up and they still go backwards, another Charlie Aitken special tip:rolleyes:
Taltan
5th-May-2009, 11:20 AM
First I cried, than I googled and your right $1.55. I sure am sorry I got involved with this one.............
M34N
5th-May-2009, 11:50 AM
How do you think its going to open on thursday. Up or Down. And after 1 for 1 offer how is the stock price going to be impacted.
Hmmm, $2.00 open would be a random guess from me, but I wouldn't bet on it to be honest. That would be a 20% fall, otherwise I'd say even as low as $1.80 (-30%) or beyond wouldn't be ruled out, I think OneSteel had a fall close to that when they got out of their trading halt so I would price in something large. It's lowest price ever is $2.05 or thereabouts in March so I'm unsure if that price will provide any support, it depends really.
I read their capital raising plan and it looks interesting indeed, one of the rumours I did hear about the capital raising being under $2.00 have been confirmed, but $1.55 is IMO a very sharp discount considering they already done some capital raising from $4 to $3 a while back. Why not seek some foreign investment instead of share placements, one has to ask?
alphaman
5th-May-2009, 12:25 PM
This is actually good timing.
BSL has high debt and poor cash flows, a deadly combo. Without this market rally BSL's share price would have been under $2 anyway, so this is not that big a discount. Yes EPS gets diluted, but that's a very cheap price to buy survival.
Real1ty
5th-May-2009, 12:27 PM
They have also decided to suspend their dividend
Consistent with BlueScope Steel’s other actions to strengthen its balance sheet and maintain financial flexibility in light of current market conditions, BlueScope Steel does not believe it would be appropriate to propose a final dividend for the year ending 30 June 2009.
A lot of research is needed before entering into this stock imho.
I'm not a holder.
Sir Osisofliver
5th-May-2009, 01:36 PM
Page 5 of the presentation guys...
"Consistent with BlueScope Steel’s other actions to preserve capital in light of current market conditions BlueScope Steel does not believe it would be appropriate to propose a dividend for the half year ending 30 June 2009"
Noice. (I watched Borat on the weekend)
Cheers
Sir O
johannlo
5th-May-2009, 01:37 PM
Unless you're trapped like me (bought @ 2.62).
Holding on for the long term, still with some of the earlier posters re: undervalued in the long term. Have to think about 1.55, even with dilution it still looks pretty darned cheap
But yes I would much rather make quick 10-20% small-mid cap hay whilst the sun is still shining.... one for the lessons book. :rolleyes:
captluthra
5th-May-2009, 02:17 PM
$1.55 1 for 1 isnt a bad deal after all. Two shares at $3.10 and if the stock trades at $1.8 then its a sweet gain of $.25 per share.
Correct me if I am wrong.
ands
5th-May-2009, 02:54 PM
$1.55 1 for 1 isnt a bad deal after all. Two shares at $3.10 and if the stock trades at $1.8 then its a sweet gain of $.25 per share.
Correct me if I am wrong.
It's might be an okay deal for the shares you buy through the SPP but what about the shares people have bought from $2-$12. Not to forget that this is a massive dillution of shares (if everyone takes it up that is). I'm sure they wished they had raised money when it was around $11-$12...
oldblue
5th-May-2009, 03:05 PM
Note that it's not a SPP but a non-renounceable pro-rata one for one issue.
The big discount means that a shareholder who doesn't take it up will be heavily diluted so there's a big incentive to find the wherewithall, even if one has to sell something else to do so.
captluthra
5th-May-2009, 05:16 PM
It's might be an okay deal for the shares you buy through the SPP but what about the shares people have bought from $2-$12. Not to forget that this is a massive dillution of shares (if everyone takes it up that is). I'm sure they wished they had raised money when it was around $11-$12...
Thats what I am saying even if the new stock reduces to 1.55 still now you got two (1 for 1) at 3.10 v/s earlier two at 5.00.
Am I overlooking something......
oldblue
5th-May-2009, 06:45 PM
Thats what I am saying even if the new stock reduces to 1.55 still now you got two (1 for 1) at 3.10 v/s earlier two at 5.00.
Am I overlooking something......
Correct as far as that goes.
Where the downside comes in is that to get your new share at $1-55 you have had to buy another ( one for one issue) at a price presumably well north of $1-55, depending on when you bought, of course.
The big discount to $1-55, and the one for one ratio results in the heavy dilution that we've been talking about. And, of course, there's no guarantees as to what the market will value the heavily diluted shares at, after the issue. One would hope for a better price than $1-55 but how much better is a bit of a guess, IMO.
captluthra
5th-May-2009, 07:08 PM
Correct as far as that goes.
Where the downside comes in is that to get your new share at $1-55 you have had to buy another ( one for one issue) at a price presumably well north of $1-55, depending on when you bought, of course.
The big discount to $1-55, and the one for one ratio results in the heavy dilution that we've been talking about. And, of course, there's no guarantees as to what the market will value the heavily diluted shares at, after the issue. One would hope for a better price than $1-55 but how much better is a bit of a guess, IMO.
If that be the case shouldnt we expect a lot of stock movement on thursday as the investors will buy in hope of doubling their stocks for only 1.55 each.
skc
5th-May-2009, 08:35 PM
If that be the case shouldnt we expect a lot of stock movement on thursday as the investors will buy in hope of doubling their stocks for only 1.55 each.
I think in most instances the rights are given to only existing shareholders (before the halt). That is, if you bought on Thursday open you won't be able to purchase at $1.55.
The way to think about the new share price would be... total number of shares increase 2 fold (assuming everyone takes up their rights, which is unlikely). So EPS falls by ~50%, but each new share still has cash of $1.55/2.
So a possible price is $2.57/2 + $1.55/2 = $2.06, assuming market applies the same PE ratio to the stock. The EPS is probably reduced with the latest market update, but the risk of BSL running into debt problem is reduced, plus they would save some interest costs. So my punt is that a fair opening price is somewhere ~$2.
ozbecool
6th-May-2009, 01:15 AM
POINT1:
First of all : this placement shows that BLS management is really BAD :
- the offer is almost a black mail - buy more at $1.55 or if you don't then you will be hit by an instant loss. Why didn't they say offer is 5-10% discount to the market price and offer is eg. "3 for 5) ? They didn't because they want to FORCE shareholders to buy more.
- didn't those CEOs, MDs etc from BSL board know WHAT their debt structure was ? They created it !!!
- W.Buffett places companies with such a poor management into a disposal bin.
POINT2: RE: the rights are given to only existing shareholders ....
The offer doc says that RECORD DATE for retail holders is FRI 8 May, 7pm, so entitlements will be taken as of that date.
Similar thing was on 17Apr09 with OST;
- offer was "2 for 5"
- and OST price at the time when the offer was announced was : $2.56.
- then on ex-entitlement date (20Apr09) price went down to $2.23.
But note that the equivalent theoretical ex-entitl. price for OST was : $2.34 [ =(2*$1.8+5*$2.56)/(2+5) ]. And that above $2.34 agrees with own OST estimate of the price.
But on 20Apr09 (the first day after the entitlement date) market closed at $2.23 i.e. approx 5% below theoret. price.
So we could expect that BSL will be trading near $1.96 or so [ = $2.06 (theoret. ex-ent. price) * 0.95 ].
[B]
POINT3:
But who knows at what price it will be trading on 7 May and 8 May as those days BSL stock is to trade as pre-entitlement ? Probably in between $2.0 and $2.5. But here we might have an interesting phenomena :
- OST did NOT have those 2 days of pre-entitlement as BSL is to have on 7/8 May.
- and BSL has those 2 days, therefore this offers a 'deal' : << buy me now at any price below $2.57 and if the ex-entitl. price on/after 10 May is above $2.06 then you will have an instant gain>> So it is a kind of an CFD/options trading.
POINT4:
Consider this break-even scenario:
- you keep you shares till Mon 10 May (or buy some on 7/8 May if you do not have any yet)
- this way you are entitled to buy "new shares" at $1.55
- then you sell on Mon at - lets assume that market will settle at $2.06 per share
- when you become the owner (~ 2-3 weeks from now) of the "new shares" you sell them - for simplicity lets assume that market price will still be $2.06 (but probably they will be higher - as OST are now).
- this way you paid: $2.57 + $1.55 = $4.12 for 2 shares
- then you sell at $2.06 (on 10May) + $2.06 (~ 20-25 May) = $4.12
WHICH MEANS THAT :
If you bought in the past or you can buy shares on 7/8 May significantly lower than @ $2.57 / ea and then sell them at or above $2.06 after 9 May then you will have some profit (trading fees excluded)
But : why bother buying BSL now with so many 'ifs' when there are so many better opportunities in the market ?
People who are somehow in a trouble are those who already have BSL shares. 7/8 May might offer them some 'cut losses' exit opportunities IF THE PRICE hits $2.30 or more.
:mad:
Taltan
6th-May-2009, 10:51 AM
Interesting to note that the shares went from 2.39 to 2.57 on Monday. People on the inside knew about the raising that day so it looks like they were buying to ensure their 1.55 entitlement as per Point 3 made by ozbecool. Thus the market didn't really value BSL at 2.57 prior to the announcement but really somewhere between 2.39-2.57.
Lets say 2.5 and now the number of shares are doubled so we go to 1.25. Of course the market will like the debt reduction and not everyone will take up the SPP, nevertheless once the fun and games of Thu & Fri are over I dont see the stock trading above $2. Hopefully $1.96
Point one regarding amangement is of course also valid
M34N
6th-May-2009, 11:26 AM
First of all...
Agree with a lot of what's said here, but you're assuming the price will settle at around $2.06 or thereabouts, which is the main argument in your case. I personally wouldn't be shocked to see it well under $2.00 level.
But otherwise I am unsure as to when people are entitled to receive part of the SPP, is it on the record date or do you already need to be on the books to receive it? Reading their restructure plan yesterday I wasn't sure of this either, but assumed by record date you needed to be already settled by your broker and on BSL's book's by 08/05/09?
Either way, I'm expecting a massive swing in this stock come tomorrow, will be watching like a hawk for any massive move down, and I think any dip below $2.00 like you said may provide a nice opportunity to buy - even for the longer term (one of the first time's I've thought about a long-term buy in a while to be honest). This is most likely the last buyback they will have so I expect the price to settle from here, but that's my best guess!
oldblue
6th-May-2009, 11:35 AM
This is most likely the last buyback they will have so I expect the price to settle from here, but that's my best guess! QUOTE.
Unfortunately, a SPP is the exact opposite of a buyback but I agree with the sentiment ( if intended) that this is likely to be their last capital raising for a while.
There's a good chance that the SP will gradually recover somewhat once the dust settles as has happened with a few other SPP's recently, eg TSE, FBU,CSR etc.
;)
alphaman
6th-May-2009, 12:40 PM
POINT1:
- didn't those CEOs, MDs etc from BSL board know WHAT their debt structure was ? They created it !!!
- W.Buffett places companies with such a poor management into a disposal bin.
I agree. But when you are the CEO of a public company, and you see your competitors loading up debt and getting rewarded by the market, you would probably have done the same. In fact BSL probably would not have gone up to $12 without the debt leverage.
skc
6th-May-2009, 12:51 PM
But otherwise I am unsure as to when people are entitled to receive part of the SPP, is it on the record date or do you already need to be on the books to receive it? Reading their restructure plan yesterday I wasn't sure of this either, but assumed by record date you needed to be already settled by your broker and on BSL's book's by 08/05/09?
Typically the Ex date is 3 days before the record date. This is the same as in dividends. So I actually didn't think shares purchased on open tomorrow will be entitled to the rights. I could be wrong of course...
captluthra
6th-May-2009, 01:14 PM
Typically the Ex date is 3 days before the record date. This is the same as in dividends. So I actually didn't think shares purchased on open tomorrow will be entitled to the rights. I could be wrong of course...
As per the info available the ex date is 7PM on Friday ie 08/05/2009...How do u think its going to impact the price on thursday and friday.....
Skip1jz
6th-May-2009, 02:48 PM
My understanding reading the print at the end of the offer document is you will only be entitled to the offer if you held the shares before the trading halt.
skc
6th-May-2009, 03:14 PM
As per the info available the ex date is 7PM on Friday ie 08/05/2009...How do u think its going to impact the price on thursday and friday.....
Where do you see the ex date bing 8 May? Note difference between Ex date and record date.
As stated before, ex-date typically 3 days prior to record date. I guess to allow for ASX settlement / processes etc.
As to impact - already analysed above. Simple put the first traded price is likely to actually be the ex-entitlement price, which some believe to be in the area of $2.
captluthra
6th-May-2009, 03:23 PM
Where do you see the ex date bing 8 May? Note difference between Ex date and record date.
As stated before, ex-date typically 3 days prior to record date. I guess to allow for ASX settlement / processes etc.
As to impact - already analysed above. Simple put the first traded price is likely to actually be the ex-entitlement price, which some believe to be in the area of $2.
Record date as per the prospectus is 1900 hrs 08 May 2009....Now the record date is established by an issuer of a security for the purpose of determining the holders who are entitled to receive a dividend or distribution. So I am making the assumption on the definition above.
oldblue
6th-May-2009, 03:58 PM
Record date as per the prospectus is 1900 hrs 08 May 2009....Now the record date is established by an issuer of a security for the purpose of determining the holders who are entitled to receive a dividend or distribution. So I am making the assumption on the definition above.
Any shares purchased tomorrow won't be settled for until Tuesday 12 May ( T+3).
Entitlements will be calculated by the registry as at their records of 8 May.
My pick is that the shares trade " ex entitlement" tomorrow.
ozbecool
6th-May-2009, 04:52 PM
There is a possibility that it is as you guys say (i.e. that the entitlement is similar to the "EX-DIV vs DIV RECORD DATE"). OST offer was clear about this. So I emailed BSL today and when I get the answer I will post it here ASAP. :confused:
If tomorrow BSL is to trade "ex-entitlement" then my guess for the average day price is $1.95 ... $2.05. Low institutional offer coverage (to be known by tomorrow morning) would move the price up I guess.
ozbecool
6th-May-2009, 07:23 PM
I have just received an answer from BSL - quote:
<< If someone buys stock tomorrow may 7 then they would not be eligible to participate. >>
I hope that the above info will prove quite valuable for all people thinking of buying in order to be able "to participate" in the offer.
The above answer from BSL office also confirms that, in regards to entitlement date, BSL offer is identical to Apr 2009 OST offer : i.e. that to be eligible you must have purchased the stock before the trading halt. .
:cool:
captluthra
7th-May-2009, 09:31 AM
I have just received an answer from BSL - quote:
<< If someone buys stock tomorrow may 7 then they would not be eligible to participate. >>
I hope that the above info will prove quite valuable for all people thinking of buying in order to be able "to participate" in the offer.
The above answer from BSL office also confirms that, in regards to entitlement date, BSL offer is identical to Apr 2009 OST offer : i.e. that to be eligible you must have purchased the stock before the trading halt. .
:cool:
So would that mean I can sell my stocks today and still be eligible to get 1 for 1, just because I held them at the time of halt
oldblue
7th-May-2009, 10:20 AM
So would that mean I can sell my stocks today and still be eligible to get 1 for 1, just because I held them at the time of halt
Correct.
And judging from the volume traded so far today, there's been a fair bit of that going on.
captluthra
7th-May-2009, 10:22 AM
I have just received an answer from BSL - quote:
<< If someone buys stock tomorrow may 7 then they would not be eligible to participate. >>
I hope that the above info will prove quite valuable for all people thinking of buying in order to be able "to participate" in the offer.
The above answer from BSL office also confirms that, in regards to entitlement date, BSL offer is identical to Apr 2009 OST offer : i.e. that to be eligible you must have purchased the stock before the trading halt. .
:cool:
What do you make out of the stock trading at $2.25....beats me...we were expecting 1.96-2.06??? Is is going to rise further or fall from here...I called the bluescope about the record date clarification...and they had no clear answer....
oldblue
7th-May-2009, 10:33 AM
Is is going to rise further or fall from here...
That's for the market to determine.
Depends on market conditions generally and BSL specific issues. Interesting to note, though, that several companies that have made heavily discounted issues in the recent past have seen a gradual, moderate increase in their SP once the dust has settled and their financing becomes secured, eg TSE, FBU, NPX etc.
;)
ozbecool
7th-May-2009, 10:59 AM
RE: I called the bluescope about the record date clarification...and they had no clear answer
I also called them just now (10:30 Sydney time) (ph # : 1300-855-998) and I asked two questions re two hypothetical situations (Q stands for QUESTION, A stands for ANSWER):
HS1:
my Q: If I have no BSL shares today (7May) and I buy some now and then hold them till at least next week - would I be eligible for the 1-1 offer ?
BSL A: No - you would NOT be eligible because it will take 3 trading days (standard 3T+ trading arrangements on ASX) for you to become the BSL shareholder 'on records'
HS2:
my Q: If I already have BSL shares (bought long time ago) and sell all of them today (7May) - would I be eligible for the 1-1 offer ?
BSL A: No - you would NOT be eligible because you will not be on the share register on 8 May , 7pm
So I asked BSL another question - re (HS2) above :
my Q: why the 3T+ is not being applied to the SELL situation and it is applied to BUY situation ?
BSL A: you have to talk to your broker to get the answer to that !!!
Can you believe this ? And that was the answer from their phone SUPPORT line established to help people with this 1-1 offer !!!
So effectively my interpretation of the current situation is this :
7/8 May are the days 'in vein' - i.e. :
- if you own shares you have to hold on to them if you want to be eligible for the 1-1 offer
- if you don't own any BSL shares now then don't bother buying this week because you will probably pay more than you would next week. And there is no way you might become eligible for the offer anyway.
and the current BSL $2.20 price mark is coming from misinformation regarding the above. I bet price will settle at or below $2.05
:banghead:
ozbecool
7th-May-2009, 11:03 AM
Dear OLDBLUE - re your post @10:20 today:
Your answer is INCORRECT - see my today's prev post @10:59 for more details. Or call BSL on 1300-855-998 and find out yourself.
This whole situation is crazy - they should have clearly stated something like this: if you buy and hold shares by the end of 8 May 09 then you are eligible - full stop - no matter what the 'record' date would be
johannlo
7th-May-2009, 11:15 AM
If you're a holder, how do you actually exercise your options e.g. is some paperwork coming in the mail?
Gamblor
7th-May-2009, 11:26 AM
I'm new to all this but there is no way I would be buying at the current price - they've basically just halved the value through this raising have they not?
I don't know much about the share market but I wouldn't be interested until well under 2.00
oldblue
7th-May-2009, 11:27 AM
Dear OLDBLUE - re your post @10:20 today:
Your answer is INCORRECT - see my today's prev post @10:59 for more details. Or call BSL on 1300-855-998 and find out yourself.
This whole situation is crazy - they should have clearly stated something like this: if you buy and hold shares by the end of 8 May 09 then you are eligible - full stop - no matter what the 'record' date would be
No need to get all coloured!
The shares are being traded "ex entitlement" today.
This means that the buyer doesn't get the entitlement, the seller does because settlement doesn't take place until 12 May. In the meantime, the seller is "on record" as the holder of the shares.
Anyone contemplating selling should, of course, check with their broker.
oldblue
7th-May-2009, 11:30 AM
If you're a holder, how do you actually exercise your options e.g. is some paperwork coming in the mail?
Yes.
It's not strictly "options" but a non-renounceable entitlement.
Amounts to about the same thing though.
:)
johannlo
7th-May-2009, 12:24 PM
Thanks
Also re: Gamblor, no the price shouldn't halve, the back-of-envelope estimate is more like
(Price before announcement + price at offer) /2 = (2.57+1.55)/2 = ~2
So for us holders we're being blackmailed into doubling down ;)
oldblue
7th-May-2009, 12:42 PM
So for us holders we're being blackmailed into doubling down. QUOTE.
That's pretty much it!;)
If you don't take up the issue you're going to be heavily diluted so there's a big incentive to take up the shares.
While noting the theoretical price ( say, $2-06) I wouldn't place too much reliance on this working out in practice, as today's trading shows.
alphaman
7th-May-2009, 01:06 PM
Normall you can sell today, but it probably doesn't hurt to wait after May 8. This bear rally looks invincible right now.
Interesting that BSL decided to underwrite the retail offer too. More desperate than I thought.
oldblue
7th-May-2009, 01:41 PM
Interesting that BSL decided to underwrite the retail offer too. QUOTE.
Underwriting of these issues is pretty much standard practice these days.
No-one wants to risk an under-subscribed issue in a volatile market.
;)
Gamblor
7th-May-2009, 02:04 PM
Thanks
Also re: Gamblor, no the price shouldn't halve, the back-of-envelope estimate is more like
(Price before announcement + price at offer) /2 = (2.57+1.55)/2 = ~2
So for us holders we're being blackmailed into doubling down ;)
Oh ok - That makes todays trade seem slightly more reasonable - still to high for me to jump in though.
stoxclimber
7th-May-2009, 02:41 PM
Interesting that BSL decided to underwrite the retail offer too. QUOTE.
Underwriting of these issues is pretty much standard practice these days.
No-one wants to risk an under-subscribed issue in a volatile market.
;)
It's pretty unusual to underwrite the retail component of the offer - my guess is a couple of the instos were willing to subunderwrite the retail component and BSL wanted all the $.
MACCA350
7th-May-2009, 03:30 PM
Thanks
So for us holders we're being blackmailed into doubling down ;)I'm not happy about that at all:sly: I had no intention of putting any more into BSL:banghead:
cheers
Taltan
7th-May-2009, 03:47 PM
Am I missing something here. On Monday the shares opened at 2.39. On Tuesday they announce a dilution whereby any shareholder can double their shares on a one for one basis at 1.55 (or just do nothing and get diluted by almost half) and now ex-date the stock is trading at 2.42.
My understanding of the SPP is that lets say you own 100 shares you will have the opportunity to buy another 100 at 1.55. If you have 500,000 you can buy another 500,000 at 1.55 etc etc. Now either I don't understand the SPP or BSL has had a great week
bonkerrs
7th-May-2009, 04:15 PM
Please help me confirm my understanding.
I bought 2,000 shares @ 2.70 (11.04.2009) = cost $5,400
Then another 2,000 shares @ 2.60 (15.04.2009) = cost $5,200
Total = $10,600.00
If I don't participate and take the offer my shares will be worth 4,000 @ $1.55 straight away and if I take it up I can have 8,000 @ $1.55 (paying for another 4,000 @ 1.55).
Is that it?
oldblue
7th-May-2009, 04:25 PM
Please help me confirm my understanding.
I bought 2,000 shares @ 2.70 (11.04.2009) = cost $5,400
Then another 2,000 shares @ 2.60 (15.04.2009) = cost $5,200
Total = $10,600.00
If I don't participate and take the offer my shares will be worth 4,000 @ $1.55 straight away and if I take it up I can have 8,000 @ $1.55 (paying for another 4,000 @ 1.55).
Is that it?
You have 4,000 shares at a cost of $10,600.
You get an entitlement to 4,000 at $1-55 = $6,200.
You will then have 8,000 at a total cost to you of $16,800.
= an average cost of $2-10.
If you don't participate you'll have your original 4,000 shares at an average cost of $2-65 and your entitlement to the 4,000 @ $1-55 will lapse and be gratefully received by the underwriters.
If I were you and I could afford it I'd be taking up the 4,000 @ $1-55!
;)
johannlo
7th-May-2009, 04:28 PM
What the heck is going on? So much for the 2 dollar target price... $2.45 at close.
Now pls aussie post give me my SPP forms :)
oldblue
7th-May-2009, 05:02 PM
Am I missing something here. On Monday the shares opened at 2.39. On Tuesday they announce a dilution whereby any shareholder can double their shares on a one for one basis at 1.55 (or just do nothing and get diluted by almost half) and now ex-date the stock is trading at 2.42.
My understanding of the SPP is that lets say you own 100 shares you will have the opportunity to buy another 100 at 1.55. If you have 500,000 you can buy another 500,000 at 1.55 etc etc. Now either I don't understand the SPP or BSL has had a great week
Well, it's not a SPP but a pro rata entitlement issue but other than that you understand perfectly!
Mr Market has decided, at least for the moment, that BSL is a steal at $1-55 and has bid up the price accordingly.
Financing is assured ( underwritten) and the market breathes a sigh of relief.
See post #211 in this thread.
;)
bonkerrs
7th-May-2009, 05:52 PM
You have 4,000 shares at a cost of $10,600.
You get an entitlement to 4,000 at $1-55 = $6,200.
You will then have 8,000 at a total cost to you of $16,800.
= an average cost of $2-10.
If you don't participate you'll have your original 4,000 shares at an average cost of $2-65 and your entitlement to the 4,000 @ $1-55 will lapse and be gratefully received by the underwriters.
If I were you and I could afford it I'd be taking up the 4,000 @ $1-55!
;)
Sorry, I don't completely get it :o - I have the right to buy 4,000 @1.55 and it will then be worth whatever the BSL market price will be?!!
alphaman
7th-May-2009, 06:12 PM
Sorry, I don't completely get it :o - I have the right to buy 4,000 @1.55 and it will then be worth whatever the BSL market price will be?!!
That's correct. After you get the new shares BSL's price can be anywhere between 0 to infinity.
But you can always sell the 4000 shares you already own to lock in a profit now.
johannlo
7th-May-2009, 07:21 PM
Unless there is a huge amount of profit taking your new shares will likely not be below 1.55 when your options become effective.
The next few days will sure be interesting
bonkerrs
7th-May-2009, 09:09 PM
It's appears to be a statutory requirement related to restrictions on companies dealing in their own shares.
As you can see from the miniscule number of shares involved, it is extremely unlikely to have any effect on the SP!
Ta oldblue and ta for the BSL answer too!! :p: too short?
That's correct. After you get the new shares BSL's price can be anywhere between 0 to infinity.
But you can always sell the 4000 shares you already own to lock in a profit now.
Has it been confirmed that you can do this and still receive the offer? I'm in to buy more BSL at 1.55
Unless there is a huge amount of profit taking your new shares will likely not be below 1.55 when your options become effective.
The next few days will sure be interesting
Historically - What kind of reactions usually happen with these situations?
my03
8th-May-2009, 12:01 AM
Hey guys, quick question, ive been keeping my eye on bsl so does ths represent good value for someone getting in now or isnt it worth it if you're not entitles to the 1:1 trade at 1.55?
oldblue
8th-May-2009, 06:55 AM
We're starting to get into deep water here. Every situation is different and market conditions, which can change quickly, have a big bearing on what might happen.
But see post #211 in this thread.
ozbecool
8th-May-2009, 02:45 PM
Has it been confirmed that you can do this and still receive the offer? I'm in to buy more BSL at 1.55
Re post #231 and #233:
Be CAREFUL with this - see my post #212 - even BSL support phone line (13-13-44) does NOT know the 100% answer to the Q: "if I buy on 08 May - will I be entitled". The lady told me that PROBABLY one will not be entitled.
This uncertainty is in my opinion one of the reasons that the stock trades near $2.4 instead of $2.0 mark. And on Mon 11 May there will be : a big profit taking / account reconciliation for those that : have N shares + will opt for the offer for another N shares but at the same time want to keep N (not 2*N) shares for future - they will sell their N shares as they will get the N back in a few weeks time for $1.55. And this "N" selling will be a strong (even though probably not long lasting) down pressure on price.
As per post #211 - stock will probably recover in coming weeks / months and start climbing up considering the following:
- 'improved' debt position of the company and lowered gearing
- very low PRICE/BOOK VALUE of ~ 0.5 (book value as on Jul 08 was around $5).
- low P/E ratio of ~ 5.5 (in this industry peers avg P/E is 10-11)
And remember - it is a well known approach (vide W.Buffett, even though his methods are not as good as others - eg. Ed Seykota) - if you think that the company is a good company and you can get it for a very good price then all you have to do is patiently wait and you will be rewarded for your patience.
:)
jono1887
8th-May-2009, 07:20 PM
So did you have to be holding the stock on Tuesday to be able to get the offer at 1.55?? Because I just bought it on Thursday at 2.24.... and when will this go through? Will the stock drop below $2 now after the dillution occurs??
nawshus
8th-May-2009, 08:45 PM
BSL doesn't look like it's heading in the right direction. What do long-term holders feel about this stock?
oldblue
9th-May-2009, 06:55 AM
So did you have to be holding the stock on Tuesday to be able to get the offer at 1.55?? Because I just bought it on Thursday at 2.24.... and when will this go through? Will the stock drop below $2 now after the dillution occurs??
There are different opinions expressed on this point on this thread as you will see if you read the last few days.
I maintain that the shares traded "ex entitlement" after the tading halt, ie you don't get the entitlement offer.
Personally, I wouldn't have been buying at that time without getting a clear opinion on the point from my broker.
The_Bman
11th-May-2009, 02:03 PM
Interesting this isn't in the ASX news: Bluescope wins $20m Navy contract
Read somewhere else (sorry can't remember) on how prices are now back to 2006 levels but in 2006 obviously the outlook was much rosier. Food for thought esp for those who went long on small-mid cap miners in the last few months...
M34N
14th-May-2009, 06:42 PM
$2.00 level held today, looking very weak. I think this is the lowest closing price in BSL's history (last time I think it was $2.05 or $2.08, can't remember)... so hard to be positive on it. I think $1.80 is possible soon, and ultimately $1.60 is the lowest I would expect in this leg down at least, unless things turn ugly fast.
But definately looking at this one and keeping an eye, I posted a few weeks back about $2.00 being vital support and if that breaks, I would be worried.
Gamblor
15th-May-2009, 10:27 AM
I've got my order in at 1.75 and even then I'm starting to think about pulling it. I just can't get over the fact EPS has basically just halved.
oldblue
15th-May-2009, 11:31 AM
I've got my order in at 1.75 and even then I'm starting to think about pulling it. I just can't get over the fact EPS has basically just halved.
That's what happens to cyclical stocks in the down cycle. Perhaps the more incredible part - now, that is - is that the SP got so high at the top of the cycle. Hindsight is a wonderful thing!
;)
johannlo
15th-May-2009, 11:56 AM
They do have a lot of costs that haven't come out in the wash yet (equipment end of life etc.) and there is still an incredible amount of steel stockpiled waiting for the price and demand to recover. Its very much the long haul now even for us fools who though we were bottom picking in the mid 2 dollar range
bonkerrs
18th-May-2009, 10:30 AM
If you don't participate you'll have your original 4,000 shares at an average cost of $2-65 and your entitlement to the 4,000 @ $1-55 will lapse and be gratefully received by the underwriters.
If I were you and I could afford it I'd be taking up the 4,000 @ $1-55!
Check out the direction of the SP today! Received my docos from BSL last Friday and have been thinking about this all weekend - to participate or not?! I'm really up in two minds about it.
I guess I can sell what I have now and buy the allotment at 1.55. Trading at around 1.875 at the moment.
johannlo
18th-May-2009, 12:25 PM
That is a good idea bonkers, also you get to realise your capita loss for this financial year. Might just do that depending on which way the SP blows over next few weeks.... now for those darned docos to get here ;)
bonkerrs
20th-May-2009, 03:26 PM
That is a good idea bonkers...Following alphaman's suggestion from an earlier post!
...also you get to realise your capita loss for this financial year. Capital loss... how do you know I will make a capital loss :confused:
johannlo
20th-May-2009, 03:33 PM
Granted it was an assumption which I didn't pause to think about but since SP is at historical lows right now percentage wise it wouldn't have been too risky an assumption. Still point taken. Lets just leave it as 'good idea ' lol
