BPT - Beach Petroleum

[Bonk]

Euroz Research states today , Myponga-1 success will add 15c to their current valuation of 39c . BPT is currently 28.5c in this depressed market. Myponga-1 is tipped to hold 10mmbbloe.
Also, BPT has currently 37m dollars cash ...for acquisitions?

[Aceyducey]

Beach is undervalued, just, as is STU, GOG and other junior oilers :)

They have been sitting on the cash for awhile....it's still unclear what they will do with it.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[GreatPig]

I added Orchard Petroleum (OPL) to my paper portfolio last Friday and it's my star performer so far :)

GP

[Aceyducey]

Keep an eye out for the Merlin Petroleum listing. Prospectus will be out next week.

CAVEAT: Note that I am a seed investor in Merlin & have consulted to the company.

However I'd seriously like to know what people think about it.

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[stefan]

Very interesting stock. I might just buy a few to hold for the next few months.

Thanks for the tip...

[Bonk]

BPT will now improve as the stock gets back to doing some wells , where people will see by xmaz what its game plan is . Expect a decent dividend out of the blue ........maybe 1.5c

[tech/a]

Nice Breakout this morning

[mime]

Does anyone know why the stock is on a major downward trend?

[mime]

ok

So why is it on a downward trend?

[Mofra]

As complete guesses

a. Oil is down off its 12 month highs, and the stock is being rated by the market as a producr more than an explorer.
b. In sympathy with the rest of the market pulling back - smaller caps are being hit hardest as investors flock to more defensive stocks
c. Some profit taking may have started it
d. T/As would be holding off buying waiting for more definite signs of reversal

[GreatPig]

Sold out of this on 21st July for 73.5 cents. Shortly afterwards it went into trading halt and is now suspended.

Is it in receivership?

Cheers,
GP

[GreatPig]

Trading again this afternoon and dropped from 73.5 cents to 68 cents.

The announcements were about taking an extra stake in some gas fields and a $76.8m capital raising, by way of a placement to institutional and "sophisticated" clients at 64 cents a share.

After announcing a placement at 64 cents, perhaps the market considered 73.5 cents somewhat overpriced :rolleyes:

Cheers,
GP

[Kauri]

Considered shorts but not enough breakdown volume... maybe tomorrow. :(

[Kauri]

Considered shorts but not enough breakdown volume... maybe tomorrow. :(

On its way now :D

[Fab]

Hi,

I hold BPT and recently got credited to my account 1000 BPTOB (Options). Good surprise :) nevertheless I am not familiar with how to trade them and when I try to view it on my Commsec account BPTOB code is said to be invalid.
Can anyone help me on this ?

Cheers

[Fab]

I actually got the answer from Commsec. BTOP option will start trading on the 01/05. By the way this is a great stock

[mime]

I actually got the answer from Commsec. BTOP option will start trading on the 01/05. By the way this is a great stock

Really? How much are they?

[Fab]

BPT closed today at 1.47 up 3.52%

[mime]

So how much are the options?

[michael_selway]

BPT closed today at 1.47 up 3.52%

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 5.8 10.2 24.6 21.4
DPS 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

BMG asset appear to be doing it for them also like AZA

thx

MS

[Fab]

BPT in trading halt today Watch out what will happen next ??? :confused:

[jollyfrog]

They have Invested in GOG! 19.9 o/o of the company to be precise I guess Beach can see the potential! :D :D :D

[Fab]

What is GOG ?

[Victor H]

GREAT ARTESIAN OIL & GAS LIMITED (GOG)

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/CompanyInfoSearchResults.jsp?searchBy=asxCode&allinfo=on&asxCode=BPT#headlines

[Fab]

I can not see this stock going back to the $1 mark anymore that is the price I paid 1 year ago. I am planning to buy more very soon but probably more around the 1.30 if it gets there. Price of petrol and possible takeover target make me very very interested in this little gem :)

[michael_selway]

I can not see this stock going back to the $1 mark anymore that is the price I paid 1 year ago. I am planning to buy more very soon but probably more around the 1.30 if it gets there. Price of petrol and possible takeover target make me very very interested in this little gem :)

is BPT better or AZA u think

AZA - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS -5.2 23.7 29.8 22.7
DPS -- 0.0 0.0 0.0

BPT - Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 5.8 10.6 33.9 24.5
DPS 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

thx

MS

[kennas]

BPTs price has appreciated more in the past year, plus they have a better name.

:bowser:

[Fab]

Another question about BPT . How come BOT is worth $1.75 where what I consider similar type of oil company such as ROC oil or TAP are worth up to $4. Does that mean BPT might follow the same trend in the future or are there any reason to explain this share price difference ? :banghead:

[kennas]

Beach coming off highs atm and approaching support level at about $1.60. Currently $1.64. Should see a bounce off this, pending Mid East etc and POI.

[Ko Ko]

Just read an article in the fin review today regarding this stock. I am confused as to why this stock is only around 1.60 when ROC and TAP oil are around 4 dollars with roughly around 900 million in market capatilisation.

[kennas]

Must be shares on issue ko ko. Don't have the numbers but that's my suspiscion.

[Ko Ko]

Thanks for the reply Kennas.
Do you think ROC and TAP oil have issued much less shares than Beach?
Ill try ad have a look and compare the general purpose financial statements of both and have an answer

[kennas]

BPT hitting support at $1.60 as expected. Should find suport here to continue it's next up leg. Or, is looking at $1.45.....

Long term steady rising oil and gas player, who is probably more a predator atm than prey for consolidation in the sector.

(Long term holder)

[kennas]

Well, wasn't at $1.60 for long after another great ann on their Basker Manta JV with Anzon. Another 33% increase in the reserves. They've got so many JVs and partnerships going they seem to come out with more good news every week.

[canaussieuck]

Good to see them coming off support, now if only TAP would reverse.

[Fab]

Trading halt today. Hopefully this will take them to new high :)

[kennas]

Interesting. But they've come off the past week or so. No one else went in halt with them. Capital raising?

[dubiousinfo]

Beach in line to bid for Delhi
Nigel Wilson, Energy writer
August 31, 2006
THERE is mounting speculation Beach Petroleum will emerge as a counter-bidder for Delhi Petroleum once an independent analyst's report being prepared by KMPG is released publicly.
KPMG's report will form part of the scheme booklet accompanying the proposed $474 million sale of Delhi Petroleum to Santos by Westpac Funds Management, to be lodged with the Australian Securities and Investments Commission within days.

Westpac Funds Management has flagged that there is another bidder for Delhi, and Beach has confirmed that while it has expressed interest, there is no formal offer.

The Australian understands Beach's position could change after extensive discussions involving chief executive Reg Nelson and financial and legal advisers.

Mr Nelson has declined to comment on Beach's progress in evaluating Delhi's prospects.

Analysts remained convinced yesterday that a Beach offer would most likely involve a purchase of Delhi assets, rather than Beach securing management control of the company.

They said that if Beach became a member of the Cooper Basin joint venture it risked losing its independence from Santos, and would also be exposed to the Santos timetable for the Cooper oil project, a Santos-driven plan to spend up to $1 billion on a huge drilling program to identify more oil reserves.

Under Mr Nelson, Beach has been solidly independent of Santos, even though its oil production is sold to Santos



Maybe something to do with this rumour

[kennas]

Maybe something to do with this rumour

I actually hope not. The market didn't like it last time, it's not going to like it now.

[Fab]

:) Thanks for the update anyway. Time will tell if BPT will shoot up

[kennas]

Seen two more reports its the Delhi Petroleum thing. I'm not over it enough to know if it's good or bad?

1137 [Dow Jones] Beach Petroleum (BPT.AU) is on a trading halt with analysts tipping the announcement of a counter bid for Delhi Petroleum. Beach has run the ruler over Delhi and its 21% stake in the Cooper Basin oil and gas fields but says it has yet to make an offer. Analysts say the market is anticipating a Delhi bid. "The market has been expecting something like this for a while," says one analyst. "It wouldn't surprise, put it that way, and it would make a lot of sense." Beach mum ahead of announcement. (APW)

[canaussieuck]

The match price for BPT is 1.61. It has continually increased over the day. Can anyone explain this to me? Is this just buy orders coming in on speculation about the pending announcement and the resumption of trading?

[Fab]

Maybe this is the reason for the trading halt.

Oil finds boost state investment
September 01, 2006
RECENT oil discoveries in South Australia's Cooper Basin are adding excitement to the state's emerging mining boom, Mineral Resources Minister Paul Holloway has said.

Mr Holloway said the discoveries reported by Stuart Petroleum and Beach Petroleum were among eight new oilfields and four new gasfields discovered in the area so far this year.

"South Australia continues to attract high levels of national and international petroleum industry interest with tenements now covering almost the entire Cooper Basin," the minister said.

"Drilling activity in the basin is at record levels, which is leading to new field discoveries for explorers and increased royalties for the South Australian economy."

In July, Stuart Petroleum discovered an oilfield in an area of the Cooper Basin which flowed 1100 barrels a day. Production was now expected to start in September.

Beach Petroleum's Callawonga One well, also drilled in July, flowed oil at a rate of 2,400 barrels a day.

It was also expected to go into production later this year.

Mr Holloway said South Australia's petroleum industry continued to grow in strength and the latest discoveries were an important step forward.



It can only help the SPP :)

[Fab]

Are they still in Trading Halt ?

[kennas]

Are they still in Trading Halt ?

Yep.

If you can't get this info off your brokers web site, go to the ASX site and go to anns and check BPT. Cheers.

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcementSearch.do

[Fab]

I can see a couple of announcement related to BPT but 0 in the trading volume. I assume this obviously means they are still in trading halt.

[GreatPig]

If you have access to a market depth screen, that will tell you straight away that the stock is in pre-open.

Cheers,
GP

[Fab]

Sorry of my ignorance but what does pre - open means ?
I can understand trading halt but pre-open looks very much the same to me as no trading is happening :sly:

[Fab]

Suspension from official quotation now . What is the difference between Suspension from official quotation and Trading Halt ??

[nioka]

Suspension from official quotation now . What is the difference between Suspension from official quotation and Trading Halt ??

Suspension is at the request of the company in this case. It is pending an announcement and I would expect a good one, BPT was added to the ASX200 last week. BPT is in partnership with other oilers in most of it's wells so one of them will probably be the one to look at for a good deal.

[canaussieuck]

Once it is included in the ASX indice, the institutional investors must weight thier portfolios accordingly with BPT stock, correct?

[nioka]

Once it is included in the ASX indice, the institutional investors must weight thier portfolios accordingly with BPT stock, correct?

MUST might not be right. There are funds that can't invest unless they are in that league so it does have a lot of influence but that alone would not have caused a trading halt.

[canaussieuck]

but that alone would not have caused a trading halt.

No, I wasn't inferring that..just looking for clarification. I think the trading halt/suspension and the timing of the indice incluesion are coincidental.

[nioka]

No, I wasn't inferring that..just looking for clarification. I think the trading halt/suspension and the timing of the indice incluesion are coincidental.

Agree

[Fab]

How long does a suspension of trading normally goes for ?

[michael_selway]

How long does a suspension of trading normally goes for ?

is it for soemthing good/bad/neither?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 5.8 10.3 30.6 25.5
DPS 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.5

[rederob]

Trading halts for Beach, Delhi investor
Nigel Wilson
September 01, 2006
SHARES in Beach Petroleum and Australian Onshore Energy Fund, an investor in Delhi Petroleum, were put in a trading halt yesterday.
Both companies requested the halt pending an announcement.

The halt is in force until the start of trading on Monday or when the announcement is made.

The Australian reported yesterday there was mounting speculation Beach would make a bid for Delhi, countering a $474 million offer from Santos.

Under the Santos offer, supported by Westpac Funds Management (WFML) which manages the Australian Offshore Energy Funds, holders of Floating Interest Energy LinkeD Securities which were used to partially fund the original purchase of Delhi from ExxonMobil, will be offered a cash payment of $83.25 for each note which has a $100 face value.

The notes were trading around $60 each before the Santos bid was announced.

WFML has not issued a scheme booklet for the Santos bid, nor released an independent report prepared by KPMG.

But it has told the market that it has received an incomplete offer for Delhi which was higher than the Santos offer.

Beach has previously confirmed to the market that it was the company referred to by WFML but has denied that this approach represented a bid.
Looks like good news is possible, otherwise business as usual.

[Fab]

How come it has not restart trading ?

[oshcomau]

How come it has not restart trading ?

It was in adjust and then Pre-Open status.... it is now in normal status. Happy buying!

[Fab]

It should go up :)

[oshcomau]

It should go up :)

It already has… unfortunately the day I planned on purchasing my first lot was the day BPT requested a HALT…. I did however purchase some this morning although at 1.63… whilst they are at 1.62 now.

[Fab]

They need to stay above 1.60 :)

[oshcomau]

They need to stay above 1.60 :)

Too Late....

[michael_selway]

It already has… unfortunately the day I planned on purchasing my first lot was the day BPT requested a HALT…. I did however purchase some this morning although at 1.63… whilst they are at 1.62 now.

Hm they are 1.54 now?

thx

MS

[oshcomau]

No kidding... I was one of the first to get in.... obviously that wasn't a good thing. They did hit 1.67 however not for long.

[Fab]

Let the market digest the new. This is still a master stroke from a miner oil company to get this deal competing against company such as Santos . I believe this stock will follow the like of TAP oil and other small oil players :)

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

[QUOTE=oshcomau]No kidding... I was one of the first to get in.... obviously that wasn't a good thing. They did hit 1.67 however not for long.

I wouldn't stress mate. Ive got them to take a turn today or the next for a run.

[oshcomau]

Thanks, I am not stressed… I thought (and still do) believe they are undervalued… that’s why I was willing to pay what I payed. Unfortunately they didn’t gain too much today (still better then most of my stocks today) and heck they could lose a whole heap tomorrow however I hope in the long run my calculations are correct.

[mime]

Follow TAP?? I hope not. It's been moving south for a while now. I read the news in the paper today about BPT and the prospects with them gaining such a large asset looks good. Fingers crossed.

[canaussieuck]

TAP is a great buy at the moment as is BPT. With oil predicted to bounce off $60 USD/B, and the winter heating oil season upon us soon these stocks and other oilers may see some healthy growth over the coming months.

Still though there some support levels that must remain intact to remain confident.

Good luck and go BPT!

[kennas]

Beach hitting support level and 200d MA, which should see it rise.

Long term the Delhi deal should estab Beach as one of the top oilers in the country and put it in the scope of the major players, if not already.

1 and 2 year chart still looking good even after the wild ride of the past 4 months.

I'm topping up at these levels.

Been holding this long term.

[canaussieuck]

Kennas, what do you see as the upside potential for BPT?

[kennas]

Kennas, what do you see as the upside potential for BPT?

They have numerous exploration projects and good junior JV partners producing good results by the week. I think price of oil is going to remain high due to the lack of new significant finds and the Middle East/Venezuala issues. I think Iran is going to be a real stumbling block for the international community and they will play the oil card to gain leverage in their nuclear pursuit, at least keeping prices high, if not back to all time highs. Plus, as a rising mid tier producer, will be on the scope of the majors as a takeover potential. Maybe even another mid tier tie up, like OSH, to create quite a large entity. Will also be pushed into one of the ASXs top companies putting it on the radar of index managers.

[canaussieuck]

BPT seems to be finding support and bounced off 1.28. Does anyone think this is just the dead cat bounce? Or does it look like its found a solid base? How much lower could this go given that oil prices could fall further in the short term?
I'm am holding but nervously, anyone offer some advice? Kennas? I think i'll put a stop in just under 1.28.

[kennas]

Depends on POI and gas I think.

Found some support atm, but maybe it's related to the HDR takeover.

Major support around $1.20 so getting out now might be a little presumtious imo. Still, required POI/Gas to stabilise. I'll buy more if it drops to $1.20.

I've been surprised by the % drop in prices. Was expecting geopolitics and weather to hold the price up much more. Still, these factors are still there and could spike the prices back up again quickly. I don't think the Delhi deal was a short term positive either, although if they get it right, it will be a medium/long term positive.

[Halba]

if not foreign company will buy it out, as it has 50% of an attractive project (BMG)

[kennas]

BPT seems to be finding support and bounced off 1.28. Does anyone think this is just the dead cat bounce? Or does it look like its found a solid base? How much lower could this go given that oil prices could fall further in the short term?
I'm am holding but nervously, anyone offer some advice? Kennas? I think i'll put a stop in just under 1.28.

I've seen further short term bearish reports on POI today, makes me nervous.

I've got a big risk tolerance and have equity spread over quite a few classes, so can take some pain in one area in the short term, for what I think are long term prospects. This is in my 'investment' portfolio, and I still see it as a good long term investment. I can't pick the turn in POI, it's just going to take one bomb, one hurricane, one Iran loose call again about destroying Israel, or one refnery fire.....

If I only had a few bucks to invest I doubt I'd have it all in oil at the moment...Probably in cash!

Must make your own mind up of course with all the information you can find......

[canaussieuck]

I feel the same, nervous but reluctant to pull the pin on BPT. I think i'll just keep a close eye on it for now. I would like to have guts to hold it long term, like over a year, but i've heard some reports on the future of the oil price that make me think twice.

Sometime i think oil bulls are just trying to slow down the alternative fuel bulls by seeming to be disbelievers on peak oil.

Cheers,

[MalteseBull]

wow..just...wow

[pistol72]

bpt.took a position today @1.40
short term target 1.55 old support ,future resistance,short term trendline
posible head and shoulders pattern forming
rsi turning positive with divergance
sto also turning up with crossover as with macd
for me she looks pretty positive in the short term,with the price of oil looking to have a bit of a run in the next week or so and a good prospect bieng drilled atm may see a new all time high bieng made,time will tell

cheers pete

[MalteseBull]

i got more today at 1.415..
i am in it short term up till ex div date

[kennas]

As expected found very good support at $1.30ish. Back through 200d ma. All good for long term Beach punters. :)

[MalteseBull]

still a continual influx of buying into the beach

[jroesten]

Hi guys

Ive had this stock for around 5 years now and it has been a great investment...but now I have a burning question :)

With the share price hovering below 1.39 how will this new share issue work? I know its underwritten but there wont be any incentive to purchase if the prices remains here, or below so does it require a reviewed price offering or am I missing something?

Many thx.

JR

[champ2003]

Most likely the price will rise above the SPPlan price as it gets closer to Basker Manta project coning online in the next month.

[kennas]

Unusual volume early on BPT today. Can't be the slight oil recovery. Interesting.

[pistol72]

kennas.maybe options bieng converted

[jroesten]

Hi All

Im still unsure as to validity of this recent option issue, the shares are around 1.38 today and the deadline for purchase at $1.39 is only a couples of weeks away.

Doesnt this put the offer at risk as investors wont be incentivised to purchase.

Id like to support the company and have a reasonable amount tied up in it buying these doesnt add up.

Any comments pls.

JR

[Fab]

I am the same. I understand some documentation will be sent on the 17/10 to shareholders

[jroesten]

Do you think this will address the price imbalance or provide more info on the issue??

Cheers

JR

[champ2003]

Its fully underwritten guys. Stop panicking.

[MalteseBull]

positive announcment released

[jroesten]

Its not panic, but there will be a price for underwritting and the share issue doesnt add up when the issue price doesnt provide a discount to share price. An investor may as well buy at market below the issue price ($1.39) than participate in the share float..so they wont do either. If the share price goes up in the next week the picture changes, but you would have to say the shareholder perception of the deal is poor as the share price has dropped since the annoucement, so the likelyhood of that is low unless the directors get all their mates to prop the market up (just joking).

Im confident that they have made judgment that the Cooper fields from Delhi will pay dividends but this deal has had changed the company from being extremely cash strong to getting into debt and this is an important aspect in repayment.

Comments/info anyone?

[champ2003]

A few things to consider. The share price looks like its on the way up to $1.50 in the next 2 weeks. Basker Manta starting production in the next month adding over 200 million in revenue per year to BPT. This puts BPT in a very strong financial position. The oil price is rising over the short term. Oversees stock markets hitting record highs. BPT's share price is at $1.40 now with upward momentum. Major NZ driling has begun. BPT is now in top 200 ASX listing which will help with the upward momentum. BPT is a much larger compnay than AWE & ROC which have much higher share prices. In all likelyhood BPT's share price will double over the next year. Do i need to say any more?

[champ2003]

Oh and on top of all of that BPT plans on trebling their production not including thier Dheli assets over the next 3 years. What does all of these facts mean? It means that the risk factor for this company is reduced substantially and that the currect share price has a very strong floor in place for a strong upward trend. :)

Good luck to all that have these shares.

[jroesten]

After holding for 5 years I sold out of all my shares in Beach last week. The market hasnt taken to this new deal, and although underwritten raising funds @1.39 is prone to undersubscription. Also the 7 for 2 just splits the same pie into more bits so devalues your interest. An increase of exec remuneration of 500% with profit increase only 100% also wasnt a good look and tech analysis is risky short term.

May rebuy when things settle down, but for now Im out.

[canaussieuck]

I'm still in but watching it very close. I really can't make a decision on this....the chart says 'breakdown ahead', but the future fundy stuff says HOLD ME.

Like to hear some more on this from anyone.

[champ2003]

Good on you i say as you have made alot of money out of it already. I don't think that it's a case that the market hasn't taken to BPT of late. I think it's much more the case that the deal isn't totally complete as yet so it's more of a wait and see approach at the moment. I think that the end result will be very much worth the wait. :)

[jroesten]

Hi Crazy...Its quite hard to get good unbiased info, and forums like this are also prone to personal motivations and limited by poster knowledge.

The only real way is the long task of reading all the docs and making an independent decision based on your own risk tolerance and experiences...or you could pay someone else who isnt risking their own money :-).

Good luck with your investments and decision..its actually quite alot of fun as well as being a headache!

[champ2003]

http://www.beachpetroleum.com.au/files/reports/BPTrq_oct06.pdf

[Caliente]

Hi, my report from Merrill Lynch rates this stock as a buy with a 12 month objective of $2.00 on the back of the Delhi acquisition.

Looks like this may be worth a spot on the portfolio, as a medium term play.

As always, DYOR.

[mas888moe]

Hi everyone,

Did you read the announcement about the shortfall of renounceable rights posted today? Do they mean that 72% of options were executed or was it only 28%? It was not clear.

Euroz valuation of Beach shares is currently $1.89! Do you think the share price will reach this by the end of 2006?

[kennas]

Hi everyone,

Did you read the announcement about the shortfall of renounceable rights posted today? Do they mean that 72% of options were executed or was it only 28%? It was not clear.

Euroz valuation of Beach shares is currently $1.89! Do you think the share price will reach this by the end of 2006?

If the H&S pattern breaks down, then $1.60 is possible, but there's a lot of resistance around those levels. Would need POI to go through $65 for this to finish the year well.

[champ2003]

The shortfall with the R Rights Issue was approx 50 mill shares and the uptake was approx 72% which is still a decent result IMO.

BPT will come into another 240 mill per year starting within the next month and i think the market will start to re rerate this company in the coming months.

[kennas]

BPT will come into another 240 mill per year starting within the next month and i think the market will start to re rerate this company in the coming months.
Champ, is the 240 m the Delhi acquisition?

[champ2003]

Champ, is the 240 m the Delhi acquisition?

Hi Kennas,

No the 240 Mill that i'm talking about is revenue on top of that and its starting now with the Basker Manta oil field coming online with full ramp up completion in early December.

Cheers

Champ2003

[kennas]

Beach seems to have broken the potential to form a H&S and has headed north, with no ann :confused: Very unusual for BPT to go up 7% in one day.

On the way up again?

Next stop $1.60 ish?

[champ2003]

I recon that the fundamentals are now catching up which is driving the share price. Keep in mind that it is soon to be the 3rd largest pure asx listed oil&gas company. Reserves are something like 3 or more times that of AWE and ROC. Its about time the price shot up i say :)

[kennas]

Beachy is starting to worry me. Looks to be rolling over a hill with the H&S still a possibility. Really had the breaks on for months. :mad: I suppose POI is holding it up, and we need to hear how the Delhi deal has gone and the bedding down process....Maybe for the bottom draw. Or, maybe cash in, a take the money to Crown..... :)

[traderandy]

Very true, starting to worry me too...

When they announced last week at their AGM that they had "joined the big league of Australian oil and gas producers" I was keeping a very close eye on the chart - the SP had just bounced off the 50MA for the second time and was right at the downward sloping resistance line.

Couldnt break through so we'll just have to wait and see what happens

[kennas]

Very true, starting to worry me too...

When they announced last week at their AGM that they had "joined the big league of Australian oil and gas producers" I was keeping a very close eye on the chart - the SP had just bounced off the 50MA for the second time and was right at the downward sloping resistance line.

Couldnt break through so we'll just have to wait and see what happens

Under $1.30 and I'm out I think. Looks to be critical support.

[Ken]

whats going on with BPT?

and COE they are both stinking it up!


COE should be way higher than it is...

[traderandy]

The price was starting to rise over the last few days but they've just announced that the Talia-1 well (joint with GOG) is going to be plugged and abandoned...

trading halt atm

[champ2003]

Looks like BPT's about to hit blue sky's.

[canaussieuck]

Looks like BPT's about to hit blue sky's.

Blue sky? Are you implying that the share price is close to all time highs?????????? :confused:

I could have sworn it was still stuck in a range....has it broken out?

Bugger, must have traded really well after the close today...serves me right for logging out early.

Cheers,

[champ2003]

Nope but i'm implying that it could welll be in the near future and with the amount of buyers built up underneath now it looks like a rocket is about to take off.

[canaussieuck]

Nope but i'm implying that it could welll be in the near future and with the amount of buyers built up underneath now it looks like a rocket is about to take off.

Depth means very little as it only represents the buyers and sellers on the screen. There's allot of resistance left to get through yet. The oil price needs to rally, and that hasn't been confirmed yet. There will still be time to get into oil stocks when things do turn around. I'm sure there are others here that would be waiting with thier fingers on the trigger to get back into oil.

It does look like a triangle though. Can't see it being a really explosive breakout when it happens but you never know.


:2twocents

Cheers,

[champ2003]

Depth means very little as it only represents the buyers and sellers on the screen. There's allot of resistance left to get through yet. The oil price needs to rally, and that hasn't been confirmed yet. There will still be time to get into oil stocks when things do turn around. I'm sure there are others here that would be waiting with thier fingers on the trigger to get back into oil.

It does look like a triangle though. Can't see it being a really explosive breakout when it happens but you never know.


:2twocents

Cheers,

Hey Canaussie,

I see what you mean with your chart however there is so much more to it than that. IMO its really important to read all of the announcments to know where a company is at. No offence but if you were really up to speed with this company you would know about whats about to happen. The fundamentals will change the pattern on your chart quick smart. IMO December will be a pretty decent month for BPT.

[kennas]

Blue sky? Are you implying that the share price is close to all time highs?????????? :confused:

I could have sworn it was still stuck in a range....has it broken out?

Bugger, must have traded really well after the close today...serves me right for logging out early.

Cheers,
LOL. :D

And I am sure you know nothing of this company CC. Stick to analysing beavers and salmon buddy. he he. Cheers, kennas.

[canaussieuck]

Hey Canaussie,

I see what you mean with your chart however there is so much more to it than that. IMO its really important to read all of the announcments to know where a company is at. No offence but if you were really up to speed with this company you would know about whats about to happen. The fundamentals will change the pattern on your chart quick smart. IMO December will be a pretty decent month for BPT.

Ok ok, whats about to happen? I've held BPT several times and its bitten me every time. I realise they're the next big player in the oil game and all that, but other than that, i'm not too fussed about the fundementals. To me the price action says it all. I just don't think its going to move quickly, thats all.

Kennas....Beavers and Salmon???? Whats that all about?

My point in being so sarcastic in my first reply was just to make a point at what was a groundless comment on the stock. I really think BPT is probably a quality company, but if you're going to claim something, then give us something, especially those like myself who don't research Fundy stuff at all.



Cheers,

[kennas]

Ok ok, whats about to happen? I've held BPT several times and its bitten me ever time. I realise they're the next big player in the oil game and all that, but other than that, i'm not too fussed about the fundementals, to me the price action says it all. I just don't think its going to move quickly, thats all.

Kennas....Beavers and Salmon???? Whats that all about?

My point in being so sarcastic in my first reply was just to make a point at what was a groundless comment on the stock. I really think BPT is probably a quality company, but if your going to claim something, then give us something, especially those like myself who don't research Fundy stuff at all.

Cheers,

CC, sorry I thought the sarcasm was palpable. Beavers? Aren't you half canuck? Salmon? Aren't you half canuck. Maybe I should have added potato and Lobster to the list. Although, that would only make sence if you were from PEI.

I was actually inferring that Champ needs to consider that you may actually know a thing or two about BPT and the market and when you make broad general illinformed statements like 'you know nothing of this company' then you open yourself up to a return salvo. I thought I did that in the most nuanced way possible.

Cheers.

[champ2003]

Ok ok, whats about to happen? I've held BPT several times and its bitten me every time. I realise they're the next big player in the oil game and all that, but other than that, i'm not too fussed about the fundementals. To me the price action says it all. I just don't think its going to move quickly, thats all.

Kennas....Beavers and Salmon???? Whats that all about?

My point in being so sarcastic in my first reply was just to make a point at what was a groundless comment on the stock. I really think BPT is probably a quality company, but if you're going to claim something, then give us something, especially those like myself who don't research Fundy stuff at all.



Cheers,


Cani you'll have to do your own research on this one however IMO this stock is great for the short/medium and long term.

All the best.

Cheers!

[canaussieuck]

CC, sorry I thought the sarcasm was palpable. Beavers? Aren't you half canuck? Salmon? Aren't you half canuck. Maybe I should have added potato and Lobster to the list. Although, that would only make sence if you were from PEI.

I was actually inferring that Champ needs to consider that you may actually know a thing or two about BPT and the market and when you make broad general illinformed statements like 'you know nothing of this company' then you open yourself up to a return salvo. I thought I did that in the most nuanced way possible.

Cheers.

How do you know about PEI? You been there?

Ok so no, i don't know much at all about the fundementals of BPT, but from a technical point of view, its not looking great until it makes a move. Would you agree Kennas that this needs to see the POO move too, and confirm its overall direction?

(I guess i should learn how to interpret sarcasm before i try to dish it out :o )

Typical Canuck. :)

Cheers,

[kennas]

How do you know about PEI? You been there?

Ok so no, i don't know much at all about the fundementals of BPT, but from a technical point of view, its not looking great until it makes a move. Would you agree Kennas that this needs to see the POO move too, and confirm its overall direction?

(I guess i should learn how to interpret sarcasm before i try to dish it out :o )

Typical Canuck. :)

Cheers,
My little bro lived on PEI for a year as an exchange student and I visited the families he stayed with. Great place. Too many potatoes though. And how bloody cold is it in winter!!!!?? I think it was minus 40.

I have held Beach for a couple of years, so I know a little bit about it. Chart wise, it's looking vulnerable as I have posted. Fundamental wise, this will one of the top 5 oils in the country shortly, if not now, and will be ripe for a takeover, if they can bed down Delhi quickly. I only have two oil stocks now (not counting BHP) in BPT and OSH. Both of which I expect to be taken over by a major, or grow themselves to be significant producers. I said I would sell this under $1.30 I think, but I'm long term oil and gold bull, so I might hold for long term value. I'll be posting with any additional thoughts when the sp gets out of this $1.40 ish ranging.....if it ever does....

[canaussieuck]

My little bro lived on PEI for a year as an exchange student and I visited the families he stayed with. Great place. Too many potatoes though. And how bloody cold is it in winter!!!!?? I think it was minus 40.

I have held Beach for a couple of years, so I know a little bit about it. Chart wise, it's looking vulnerable as I have posted. Fundamental wise, this will one of the top 5 oils in the country shortly, if not now, and will be ripe for a takeover, if they can bed down Delhi quickly. I only have two oil stocks now (not counting BHP) in BPT and OSH. Both of which I expect to be taken over by a major, or grow themselves to be significant producers. I said I would sell this under $1.30 I think, but I'm long term oil and gold bull, so I might hold for long term value. I'll be posting with any additional thoughts when the sp gets out of this $1.40 ish ranging.....if it ever does....

I worked on the island before i moved to Australia, 12 years ago. I worked in the large new factory just as you got off the ferry...now theres a bridge there and the island is not so isolated! I got stuck on the ice one day on the ferry, that was fun, on an icebreaker smashing thru that thick ice. I'm from N.B. and its close by, now more than ever. Its colder here in Harbin than PEI!

I wanted to continue to hold BPT, but there were too many opportunities elsewhere. Thats where i think that sometimes its better to put your money elsewhere until the trend reverses or resumes, whatever the case. I think they're a great investment and i watch them everyday, in case they start to move.

TAP is another one i got burnt on. I would appraciate and oil breakout alert when it happens, although i think "The Chartist" will let me know about that one!

Cheers and good luck to those that hold!

[kennas]

I wanted to continue to hold BPT, but there were too many opportunities elsewhere. Thats where i think that sometimes its better to put your money elsewhere until the trend reverses or resumes, whatever the case. I think they're a great investment and i watch them everyday, in case they start to move.
I have an an 'investment' fraction of my portfolio that I would rarely consider trading and this is in it. Fortunately, I have quite a line of equity/credit that I can use to invest. Using the banks money to invest is the bees knees! If you generally get it right! :) I only need to make 8% a year to beat the banks interest rate on the Margin Loan. I think I paid my interest for the year in the past week. :D Unfortunately, when the market crashes, I'll have to sell YTs new Porche to pay out the loans.

[kennas]

I think the H&S is falling over but not confirmed. Seems to be a slight trend up now. Some good support around $1.40 ish.

Still cautious of any break below $1.30 ish.

A very bullish sign on the chart is the MACD about to break the signal line, on the up, and diverging.

I have a feeling oilers are getting a little more bullish. Just a hunch. :)

From FN Arena today:

Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy, Medium Risk - The broker recently upgraded its oil price forecasts and has taken the opportunity to reiterate that it is particularly keen on BPT.

Target price is $2.00 Current Price is $1.44 Difference:$0.56 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If BPT meets the Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 39% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company''s fiscal year ends in June. Merrill Lynch forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 1.50 cents and EPS of 15.50 cents . At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 1.05%. At the last closing share price the stock''s estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 9.26.

[champ2003]

Looks like BPT could be on the rise again :)

[Bonk]

BPT has been holding back those key announcements we all have been waiting for . Basker-Manta is the current play with this stock . There should be some heavy announcements flowing first half jan07 .

Chart looks healthy for a change . The outstanding stock should now have a home . Buyers now having an impact on things!

[jroesten]

Any thoughts on resistance points on this downturn Kennas or anyone. I may be tempted to get back into this soon. JR

[kennas]

Any thoughts on resistance points on this downturn Kennas or anyone. I may be tempted to get back into this soon. JR
Might be support around $1.20. I'm out. I thought $1.30 ish was a critical level. I'll revisist when/if POO stops dropping, or we get some feedback on the Delhi buy.

[BeterValue]

Hi Guys,

Did get good support at 1.18 today. Should have added a bit more to me stockpile. What is the indications on Oil price?

Regards,
BV

[vert]

oil had a low of 51.57 then closed 52.86 up 0.98 this must be the bottom?

ive had 2 losses on this one cfds 1.43 and 1.47 both stopped out. 1.18 - 1.20 i think is a bargain now hope some of you got on, i would but the remaining $ i had left went to bsg, has done me well before, cfds are great when they go your way, suck when they dont. good fun to have go at.

[Darryn]

Appears to be a good buy at the moment. Bought in at 1.24. After reading brokers research reports they value this stock at around 1.90 (Euroz)

[reece55]

Kennas
Good to see you stopped out here at 1.30 - excellent trade management IMO. I think its clear that the $1.30 was a critical level and I would have thought it is a logical stop level. There was a sideways movement in place since September that certainly on the face of it looked bullish. However, it's clear now that this is over. It is better to close out and take a loss when your view has not come to fruition.

To everyone else who remains long on this one, my take here is that using t/a being long here is a big no no. Look at the chart for 2 years - i believe that we have broken a 2 year up trend that has taken this one from 40 cents to peaks at almost 1.80. I might be wrong, because there is support at about 1.20 established it that wide price day in June. But look at the last two days - on Thursday we have extremely high volume, with clear breach of support and close on lows. Friday, whilst positive, the close is on much lower volume. This to me whiffs of sellers. As with all stocks in the oil & gas sector, there may still be pain ahead IMO.

Cheers

[kennas]

Kennas
Good to see you stopped out here at 1.30 - excellent trade management IMO. I think its clear that the $1.30 was a critical level and I would have thought it is a logical stop level. There was a sideways movement in place since September that certainly on the face of it looked bullish. However, it's clear now that this is over. It is better to close out and take a loss when your view has not come to fruition.

To everyone else who remains long on this one, my take here is that using t/a being long here is a big no no. Look at the chart for 2 years - i believe that we have broken a 2 year up trend that has taken this one from 40 cents to peaks at almost 1.80. I might be wrong, because there is support at about 1.20 established it that wide price day in June. But look at the last two days - on Thursday we have extremely high volume, with clear breach of support and close on lows. Friday, whilst positive, the close is on much lower volume. This to me whiffs of sellers. As with all stocks in the oil & gas sector, there may still be pain ahead IMO.

Cheers
Thanks reece,

I think some of the selling may have been techincal, but POO has been instrumental in the Oilers sliding - of course. (and no pun intended)

I think oil will turn around soonish and I will be back into this when the dust settles. It's a finite resource and there are more and more gas guzzlers hiting the streets (especially China) which in the next 20 years will be the world largest demand. So, I am still positive on the long term prospects of this company and will reenter in time.

All the best top long term holders....

[Out Too Soon]

I think this is going to be an oilers' year so I've added beach to my watchlist. (a year to watch poo) :D
Hope things pick up for you long termers soon, hopefully I manage to jump on before the lift off starts. :)

[Kauri]

Looks like this string has almost reached TD.. will it strike oil or be plugged and abandoned???

[clowboy]

hmm nice chart and all, but what the hell does it all mean?

Up or down for the share price?

[reece55]

Kauri
Excellent short here - this thing just keeps slipping, the sellers are abundant. The continued downtrend that I had predicted back a little while ago after the brake down out of the sidewards movement has accelerated rapidly. Brokers are saying this one's a screaming buy - personally, I wouldn't touch the thing with a 40 foot pole!

Cheers

[Kauri]

Kauri
Excellent short here - this thing just keeps slipping, the sellers are abundant. The continued downtrend that I had predicted back a little while ago after the brake down out of the sidewards movement has accelerated rapidly. Brokers are saying this one's a screaming buy - personally, I wouldn't touch the thing with a 40 foot pole!

Cheers

Hi Reece..
If the brokers who reckon it's a screaming buy had put their money where their mouth is then maybe they would have managed to stop the rout. I'm not sure that even a 40ft pole would be long enough to be able to reach this one at the moment. :D
By my elementary E/W I do however think that a bottom may not be far off, but after a long substained fall like this I don't think it will turn on a dime. Maybe bottom out, advance a bit, re-test the bottom, before trying to get some northward movement.
Cheers.. Kauri

[rederob]

Hi Reece..
If the brokers who reckon it's a screaming buy had put their money where their mouth is then maybe they would have managed to stop the rout. I'm not sure that even a 40ft pole would be long enough to be able to reach this one at the moment. :D
By my elementary E/W I do however think that a bottom may not be far off, but after a long substained fall like this I don't think it will turn on a dime. Maybe bottom out, advance a bit, re-test the bottom, before trying to get some northward movement.
Cheers.. Kauri
Kuari
Sorry to interrupt your transmission.... again.
My simple "support" line is broken near $1.15 so I would be looking at buying - actually "adding" to a small holding I took last year.
However, my fundamental view is that it is 2-3 months early to buy into an oiler, so I will re-enter BPT nearer $1.10 - my strategy is 2 entries of 10k shares.
The company is quite sound and has suffered the pains of an over-expensive acquisition that looked good while oil was still trending up to $80 rather than down to $50.
The POO cycle suggests another tilt at $50, so if in the next few months both my hurdles are jumped, so will I. ;)

I see 2007 as a relatively "steady state" for oil prices, unless hurricanes damage rigs again in GOM. But I see 2008 as the year all hell can break loose as that is when the Saudi's will have to pull out all stops to keep the world's economic engines (literally) running.
My view is that Peak Oil will talked about then just as "climate change" is now - that is, by a better informed scientific (engineering) community rather than economists and politicians.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Kauri
Excellent short here - this thing just keeps slipping, the sellers are abundant. The continued downtrend that I had predicted back a little while ago after the brake down out of the sidewards movement has accelerated rapidly. Brokers are saying this one's a screaming buy - personally, I wouldn't touch the thing with a 40 foot pole!

Cheers


Nice Call, NOT!.

[reece55]

Nice Call, NOT!.

Yeah, ok mate..........

If you review my earlier post, I stated not to enter this one when it was at 1.30..... last time I checked, if I was short (which i'm not) I would still be in the money by about 10% even after todays move upward.

Todays action may make me revisit my analysis, but mate a bounce is still just a bounce - a trade long here is still a trade against the trend. But good luck if you like catching knives! The raw fact is they paid too much for Delphi - its just that simple if you ask me.

Cheers

[Bush Trader]

Yeah, ok mate..........

If you review my earlier post, I stated not to enter this one when it was at 1.30..... last time I checked, if I was short (which i'm not) I would still be in the money by about 10% even after todays move upward.

Todays action may make me revisit my analysis, but mate a bounce is still just a bounce - a trade long here is still a trade against the trend. But good luck if you like catching knives! The raw fact is they paid too much for Delphi - its just that simple if you ask me.

Cheers

Another opinion perhaps, at this sp the market places little value on any exploration upside or perhaps the true discounted cashflows atributable to Delhi?

I'm not a holder, however I've been watching it closely for some time, and of course are interested in all your comments. The 40 ft barge pole remark concerns me somewhat, however that why we all follow this site - to be challanged in our opinion.

The peake oil theory is also open to conjecture - less oil/growing demad by oil stocks used to be my opinion. Now i look at as by oil stocks market disapointed by down trend in production SP punished - we all need oil stocks with stong cash flows and reserves, exposed to the upside in the oil price, and hopefully the right exploration plot!

Cheers BT


Overlooking The Beach

Source: FN Arena News - February 14 2007
By Greg Peel

"Now that Beach should be joining the big league, it follows that more leading brokers will initiate coverage of the stock. This usually means share price support, particularly as fund managers will start to take an interest."
I wrote that in September. I was wrong, wrong, wrong. The Beach Petroleum (BPT) share price has since fallen steadily from $1.60 to under $1.20 and still only one broker in the FNArena database of leading brokers and researchers – Merrill Lynch – covers the stock. However, Intersuisse covers the stock, and the analysts believe it is the market that is wrong, wrong, wrong.
Beach Petroleum leapt into the headlines last September when it went from oblivion to the fifth largest oil and gas company on the ASX. Beach shocked the market by significantly gazumping sector heavyweight Santos (STO) in its bid for Delhi Petroleum. While the price was a full one, Merrill Lynch suggested the jump in scale and size would generate a lot more interest in Beach.
Beach has secured the share in Delhi. However, apart from paying a full price, the company had to significantly expand its capitalisation through debt facilities and capital issues. This was not well accepted by the market. To top things off, the oil price has been in decline ever since.
Moreover, Beach had previously been a "serial underperformer", poor at managing investor relations, poor at attracting analyst interest and not a good payer of dividends, notes Intersuisse. A whole raft of reasons why no one much has given the company a second thought since.
But Intersuisse believes the market will finally begin to re-rate Beach as it sees "tangible evidence of strong operating and financial performance, likely over the course of FY07". Another reason why the market is slow to move, says Intersuisse, is because it's waiting for the first half result on February 28. That result will probably be slightly down on the previous corresponding period, the analysts expect, but the second half result should be "much stronger", and FY08 even stronger still.
The acquisition of Delhi, effective from January, has increased Beach's "barrels of oil equivalent" from 63m to 101m, and shifted its gas/oil ratio from 90/10 to 70/30, notes Intersuisse. Beach believes Delhi's reserves, particularly of oil, can be substantially lifted. Beach also has fingers in pies elsewhere, including the Gippsland and Cooper Basins (oil & gas), as well as a coal seam gas project in Queensland and, according to the analysts, an "important and growing presence in the renewable energy sector".
Beach is also exploring vigorously, and will participate in about 100 appraisal wells in FY07.
Intersuisse is forecasting a first half profit just under $30m, but a full year FY07 profit of $120m, rising to $185m in FY08 as various projects kick in. The analysts rate the stock a Buy.
So too does Merrill Lynch, having done so back in May last year. The analysts are maintaining a target price of $2.00. The stock closed at $1.125 yesterday.

[Kauri]

The volume over the past month coupled with the basing price action suggests steady accumalation to me, todays action although positive suggests that there are still sellers out there. The next few days will be interesting.

P.S... Red, I've dusted off the running shoes but haven't got down in the blocks for the 110mtr hurdles yet. :)

[reece55]

Agree Kauri.... I would expect a short rise, then a retest of those lows .... The sellers haven't left the game yet IMO. However, I also agree that the fundamental investors have been accumulating at the lower end of the rot.... The problem IMO has been that anyone who accumulated the stock over that period Sept - Dec is well in the red..... However we will probably find that most are now out....

BT, I agree that at these levels BPT is looking attractive from a valuation perspective. The premium they paid for Delphi appears to now have been diluted and certainly the market appears to be undervaluing them from an NPV perspective. But the market can undervalue companies for years and with so many other stocks showing incredible performances, I want price confirmation to convince me to take a long position.

Cheers

[rederob]

kauri
I liked today's bounce.
I am now more hopeful of a $1.10 entry than yesterday: I agree on the "sellers" point.
But I am not keen to even put on the running shoes this early, unless the starter calls me to the blocks.

reece
I don't look for confirmation, as a rule; just my personal "value' criteria.
For example, were I in the market for KZL I would have got it last week and been 10% better off today.

BT
The only people that don't believe in "peak oil" are the people that haven't looked at the data from M King Hubbert and his many oil community experts over the past 50 years. Issue is not "if", it's "when". My view is that it will occur before 2010 unless a Gawhar is brought on line beforehand: Slim chance, because we have to find one first!

[reece55]

Rederob
I actually traded that KZL bounce myself and made a few $$ - but it showed very different characteristics to that of BPT - KZL showed heavy accumulation and a support base.... BPT on the other hand shows me an accelerating downtrend that is near and end, but will probably hit your 1.10 target. When I say price confirmation, I include volume and price in the equation.

Good luck with getting the 1.10 entry - if it breaks 1.25 on high vol tomorrow with a close on the highs again, you might find the starters gun has commenced. Otherwise I would say we will hit your target and bounce nicely off it.

Cheers

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Yeah, ok mate..........

If you review my earlier post, I stated not to enter this one when it was at 1.30..... last time I checked, if I was short (which i'm not) I would still be in the money by about 10% even after todays move upward.

Todays action may make me revisit my analysis, but mate a bounce is still just a bounce - a trade long here is still a trade against the trend. But good luck if you like catching knives! The raw fact is they paid too much for Delphi - its just that simple if you ask me.

Cheers

Catching a falling knife is a comparitive term and IMO should be reserved to high volume speculative stocks with no real fundamental value......bar hype and an SP rise. Gambling in real terms :D .

It is difficult to put a real value on Oilers, BPT is a rarity and not cut from that mould.

Sure BPT paid a premium for Delhi, just like punters who purchased oil stocks during that period. Oil corrected........and most of the canny punters would have liquidated early.

You are incorrect in your assumption that BPT holders from high prices are out ATM. The vast majority of long termers and insto's from the delhi aquisition would still be in. BPT's slide is from short term traders punting on a rise that has never happened and cutting small percentage losses.

The ones who exited months back are in the sidelines biding their time waiting for the value and it is these who will decide when the bottom is met and the value fundamental punters kick in.

So yeah mate....Im catching BPT now and every time it drops under a $1.15, I will be accumalting reasonable parcels till I'm happy with my holdings. :D . Todays price action wiped an intraday trend with sudden volume, wear youre blinkers if you want the big punters certainly are not!.

[reece55]

Freeball
I think its a big call to say the instos and holders from Delphi are still there - there are no sub holders here that I know of, so its really impossible to state this fact. However, I wish you the best with your trade here. As I have said in a few other posts, 1.15 may be in the end of the slide and if it is, then good luck to you - I mean no malice, I wish you the best. It's just not the way I personally trade, but I say find whatever works for you - the market is more about you as person than about the market in general if you ask me.

By the way, great nickname!!!!

Cheers
Reece

[Kauri]

14 Feb...The volume over the past month coupled with the basing price action suggests steady accumalation to me, todays action although positive suggests that there are still sellers out there. The next few days will be interesting.

P.S... Red, I've dusted off the running shoes but haven't got down in the blocks for the 110mtr hurdles yet. :)

Am still watching with interest.. like to see this re-test of lows rejected strongly, there seems to be increased buying stopping it dropping the last 2 days... then hopefully a strong break through resistance... not asking for much I know... :D
P.S. There you go Red, I can see the hurdles already. ;)

[rederob]

Am still watching with interest.. like to see this re-test of lows rejected strongly, there seems to be increased buying stopping it dropping the last 2 days... then hopefully a strong break through resistance... not asking for much I know... :D
P.S. There you go Red, I can see the hurdles already. ;)
Kauri
C'mon - there's 3 cents of action to the downside to come before I get serious!
However, with the allords very high, and oil prices relatively firm-to-high, there should be cyclical twin-shifts downward ahead for us.
Accordingly, I have revised my present thinking and am punting for $1.05 entry price - perhaps late march?
Will keep reworking the numbers:pimp:

[Kauri]

Kauri
C'mon - there's 3 cents of action to the downside to come before I get serious!
However, with the allords very high, and oil prices relatively firm-to-high, there should be cyclical twin-shifts downward ahead for us.
Accordingly, I have revised my present thinking and am punting for $1.05 entry price - perhaps late march?
Will keep reworking the numbers:pimp:
Red,
Agree about the oil and xao this year, after all oil has put on about 20% recently and the xao about.. say 9% odd since the last blip? Unfortunately BPT has been out of cycle over the same time, so possibly it is being driven by other factors? IF oil and xao both do cycle lower and IF BPT suddenly decides to get in step it might get nasty. Just as numbers can be reworked, so hurdles can be shifted. ;) Just so long as they are not shifted mid-race. :eek7:

[Dr Doom]

I agree that there is concern if/when the cycles start to line up we could be in for a correction but until such time we can still speculate. I've noticed what looks like a 2 tier energy market evolving between stocks that have responded to the oil price strength & those that haven't, specifically -

BPT, ARQ, HZN, PSA, STU, & COE

What makes it interesting is todays ann by TAP about a possible future owner taking up a position on the share register. When compared to BPT which ones of the above look better potential takeover prospects? I've chosen the above as the share prices for all of them are showing a similar downward slope, so at some stage each will be fair value to someone, possibly another company.

[canaussieuck]

I agree that there is concern if/when the cycles start to line up we could be in for a correction but until such time we can still speculate. I've noticed what looks like a 2 tier energy market evolving between stocks that have responded to the oil price strength & those that haven't, specifically -

BPT, ARQ, HZN, PSA, STU, & COE

What makes it interesting is todays ann by TAP about a possible future owner taking up a position on the share register. When compared to BPT which ones of the above look better potential takeover prospects? I've chosen the above as the share prices for all of them are showing a similar downward slope, so at some stage each will be fair value to someone, possibly another company.

I like this......

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

IMHO today's announcement for BPT is a clear indication of their fundamentals that have been known for a considerable time.

BPT's been spanked hard on volume today and it is difficult to ascertain why posters wouldn't have accumalated over the last few days. Each to their own though :)

[Kauri]

IMHO today's announcement for BPT is a clear indication of their fundamentals that have been known for a considerable time.

BPT's been spanked hard on volume today and it is difficult to ascertain why posters wouldn't have accumalated over the last few days. Each to their own though :)
First hurdle jumped and 50% of position taken, will buy another 50% when next is achieved. ;)

[TheRage]

Anyone know why volume is high on bpt today?

[rederob]

First hurdle jumped and 50% of position taken, will buy another 50% when next is achieved. ;)
Got my second hurdle at $1.05
Last hurdle is to get in at $1 even but don't like my chances.
Methinks the bargain hunters are going to drive Beach north from here.

[Porper]

Thought it time for an update on BPT.

It came up on a scan today and I must admit I like the set up.

Reasonable low risk entry with very good support at 1.03, bounced off that area 3 times now.

Also we have some good type A divergence (the best ).

From an Elliot wave perspective, looks like the 3 wave correction may have completed.Today however wasn't so good so maybe not quite time for an entry yet, looks good to me though.

[canaussieuck]

Nice chart Porpy, agree. Saw it bounce off a buck the other day, crude oil needs to get on and up too. Need a nice entry.

Cheers,

[kennas]

Hmmm, I've been watching closely since cashing out a while ago on terrible weakness. Back on the close watch list. I reckon this will be part of some industry rationalisation soon. Speculation, but all the mid tier oilers would be IMO. It's oil!!

Any idea how the India bed down thingy is going? Anyone?

(not holding)

[nioka]

Has bpt gone into trading halt - no ann but buy/sells don't match?? or is commsec slow today?
Trading normally. Up 2c Average vol.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Trading normally. Up 2c Average vol.

A bit more momentum as well today Nioka

[reece55]

A bit more momentum as well today Nioka

Yep, looking quite nice......

Like the large volume spike at 1.05 when we went down to the lows...... Oil up 5%, looking good here..... Freeball, now I am interested! Also like the fact that the lows established in June - July have been respected and looks to have encountered what I consider to be good bargain buying.....

Cheers

[kennas]

This new project alliance with ADI, BKP, and ARQ looks very interesting.

I liked their last presentation. Nice slides....over 100mmboe reserves., largest mid cap (if that makes sence), very diverse portfolio (though still very Aus centric). No mention of the Delhi deal :confused: What happened there??

I thought this was going to get to 90 cents at where the H&S projected, but maybe due to Iran situ it's stopped at 1.10 ish....Still vulnerable if Middle East tensions subside rapidy though IMO.

[Porper]

This new project alliance with ADI, BKP, and ARQ looks very interesting.

I liked their last presentation. Nice slides....over 100mmboe reserves., largest mid cap (if that makes sence), very diverse portfolio (though still very Aus centric). No mention of the Delhi deal :confused: What happened there??

I thought this was going to get to 90 cents at where the H&S projected, but maybe due to Iran situ it's stopped at 1.10 ish....Still vulnerable if Middle East tensions subside rapidy though IMO.


Well, everything is panning out nicely here.

Looking like a nice Elliot wave pattern.Wave 2 retraced almost smack on 50% of wave 1.So price projections are as shown.

The time scale is between 13 & 17 days.A little ambitious I would say, but we'll see.

Oil looks good and the last move was strong & impulsive.

Once we get through 1.265 we can almost say wave 3 has started, looking at yesterdays action that should be today.Unfortunately the low risk entry has been and gone.

[canaussieuck]

I agree Porpy, trying weekly pivots on this too.

[kennas]

I agree Porpy, trying weekly pivots on this too.Yes, me too. POI has obviously helped....

[noirua]

Interesting charts that make going back to this stock again quite interesting, thanks. A combined company comprising Claremont Petroleum, Beach Petroleum and some assets from the Litigation days, won't bore you by explaining the latter: http://www.beachpetroleum.com.au

An interesting presentation ( 39 page download ): http://www.beachpetroleum.com.au/files/reports/asx_releases/2007/BPTInvestorPresentation2007Final.pdf

[kennas]

Interesting charts that make going back to this stock again quite interesting, thanks. Another perspective. Indicators look to be saying that it will break this resistance at 1.25-30 ish. Pending any significant slide in POI.

[svensk]

Kennas,

In regards to the chart you posted, I have a couple of newbie questions I hope someone can answer for me. The fact that the SP has broken through the noted 1.25 resistance level, and is fast approaching the 1.30 resistance barrier, along with the upward movement of the MACD indicator, could one assume, at least in the short term, the SP will continue to rise?

I guess this could also be backed up by looking at the RSI. It still has a little room to rise before it moves into the overbought area, thus giving the sp more time to rise in the near future.

I'm new to basic TA, so any comments regarding this would be appreciated.

[kennas]

Kennas,

In regards to the chart you posted, I have a couple of newbie questions I hope someone can answer for me. The fact that the SP has broken through the noted 1.25 resistance level, and is fast approaching the 1.30 resistance barrier, along with the upward movement of the MACD indicator, could one assume, at least in the short term, the SP will continue to rise?

I guess this could also be backed up by looking at the RSI. It still has a little room to rise before it moves into the overbought area, thus giving the sp more time to rise in the near future.

I'm new to basic TA, so any comments regarding this would be appreciated.Yes, what you are saying is correct. The 'probabilities' via TA are saying that this is going back up, but only just. The sp and the indicators need to be constantly monitored for a change in direction, if you are just buying off the chart. I'd be watching carefully for a reversal at this point. If it breaks back down through 125, and then 120, I'd be out, if just trading on TA. Long term 'investors' probably wouldn't care about these daily and weekly movements though. Just depends on how you invest/trade.

[motorway]

The ease of movement on the decline below the green line
Was not so evident

looked to be plenty happy to accumulate

The lowest Bar was a "No Supply" Bar marked with arrow

A spring on such low volume one could expect that it would not be retested

Two very high Volume bars follow

Only can be coming form new demand

A nice rally to ~1.25 and a nice backup
The most recent action is bullish a nice expansion of Volume in harmony with the price nice ease of movement

Set up now for a definitive Jump
A successful back up from that Jump
will be game set and match
atm a bullish consensus looks formed..

need a clear Jump and backup to confirm

Under the green line We can designate accumulation

accumulation is the work in the trading range

The cause that leads to an effect

A new markup stage.

two entry points so far
A third a major one hopefully occurs soon..

motorway

[wto23]

Gday all I'm new to forum and this maybe a beginners question....
I'm long BPT. With todays announcement of record revenues why wasn't there support but rather the SP dropped and did so quite considerably at one stage.
Can anyone explain??

cheers.

[bean]

I sold today for other reasons not this one http://321energy.com/editorials/maund/maund042207.html

My other reason was post on gold price

[motorway]

You maybe want a fundamental reason ( Do they change from day today ? )

However

BPT is in a valid uptrend
completing a healthy reaction

Was not a bad move from the bottom....
healthy reaction already confirmed the trend once..

waves last as long as they have a following
The two highest bars show demand was less keen in following any higher..

sellers reached down for buyers found some and they became less keen.
However I would not have called that reaction "adequate"

The juncture of the horizontal line and the lower diagonal demand line is
where I would be looking for the next buy signal..

What is your time frame ?

The last bar shows demand starting to meet supply..
That will sort itself out soon..

I see a potential from the accumulation in the down trending channel
to $1.80+ ... before meaningful distribution..

If I am wrong or things change ...
That is what stops are for

Why did it fall ?
On every scale there are waves that attract a following
Normal market action buying & selling ..
good response here should set up a good up wave.

Those responses look ok atm ( note that is atm :) )

cheers
motorway

[legs]

up 5.58% today on a weak oil price....encouraging, is there something else going on? anyone have any leads?:D

[Kauri]

Missed that move today, was looking to pyramid in again... my price alert didn't go off.. :banghead: After failed entry late Feb have taken one position and added once. Looking initially for around $1.50-$1.60...
(Just checked my alerts.. had it set at $2.275 instead of $1.275 :o may be an omen there!!!).

[thierry]

Beach has beaten the recent 1.365 high on 19/04 and closed at 1.37.

good signs.. looks to be a breakout imo

[Kauri]

BPT.... another one quietly going about its business..possibly heading for $1.50++ in the near future...

[canaussieuck]

This week, keep a look out for this one to either break its trend or resume it.

Weekly chart posted.

Cheers,

[legs]

CrazyCanuck or someone else, can you give us an updated chart or tell me where i can get a free chart easily from? Than:D ks

[canaussieuck]

Here you go, nice bounce off the trendline on good volume.:)

Still stuck in trend. Maybe the price of oil will get it going again?

Cheers,

[motorway]

I see good relative strength in stocks in this group

Beach is not the strongest
But not the weakest

There was some shortening of the thrust
and evidence of supply
(look at the closes )

Has come back to the trend line
volume subsided
last bar is a spring

definitely supply stopped the move
So a possible new angle of trend will be established
or a small trading range

still looks a buy to Me
and off this reaction low would be a good further
pyramid point

depending on how that unfolds

motorway

[legs]

Looking at the latest substantial shareholder notice from the Deutsche Bank. Two solid pages of on-market transactions, starting in January 07. Why would they be getting in if it wasn't on the up?? :D:D:D

[Kauri]

Might be due for an attack on the ledge, doesn't seem to have the numbers behind it yet though??? ..100 yet??

[Kauri]

Breaking through the ledge... a bit early to work out vol but it looks quite heavy for this time of the morning so far....

[kennas]

Breaking through the ledge... a bit early to work out vol but it looks quite heavy for this time of the morning so far....You've followed this one extremely well Kauri. Great work. I can even see a vague C&H in the bigger picture. Break through $1.40 gives a price target of about $1.90. The right side of the cup, maybe not rounded enough. Maybe I'm dreaming. :)

[Kauri]

You've followed this one extremely well Kauri. Great work. I can even see a vague C&H in the bigger picture. Break through $1.40 gives a price target of about $1.90. The right side of the cup, maybe not rounded enough. Maybe I'm dreaming. :)

Kennas...you're not dreaming as far as I see it anyways...On the weekly the cup is developing well... and it may tie in with my E/W as well... the vol on the cup doesn't really line up with the classic interpretation, but be warned that if to me it looks like a cup, feels like a cup, it's probably a mug :) ....

[TheRage]

I agree with both of your assessments. I have been a big believer in this company for a while. On forecast earnings the fundamental valuation is in the vicinity of $1.70 for this year. The Dehli acquisition and declining oil prices last year presented a interesting buying opportunity at $1 earlier this year.

[legs]

Nice bollinger band squeeze, RSI not too high, likely to break out... lets just hope its up... 52 week high of 1.78 is not a likely target yet but 1.50 can't be out of the question. :D:D

[legs]

Continuing its uptrend after good results at its Bodalla South field in southeast Australia. Beach said in a statement that an appraisal drilling programme at its fully-owned Bodalla South field in the Cooper Basin showed oil flows of 4,617 barrels of oil per day (bpd) in the Bodalla South 17 well.

The Bodalla South 16 well had a flow of 230 bpd.
The two new appraisal wells have added an estimated incremental oil reserve of 250,000 barrels to the field and commercial production from the wells would be underway in a month.

Adelaide-based Beach said the oil shows at Bodalla have also opened the northern portion of the field to further drilling.

Beach Petroleum's Managing Director, Reg Nelson, said the success at Bodalla has given the company "a very high level of confidence of further extractive upside for some years in both Bodalla and the nearby Kenmore fields".

Shares in Beach, which has a market value of around A$1.26 billion ($1.04 billion), were up 2.15 percent at A$1.425 by 0348 GMT.

Beach, which had oil and gas reserves of 101 million barrels of oil equivalent as at July 1, 2006, produced 1.35 million barrels of oil in 2006.
http://au.biz.yahoo.com/070601/19/19auz.html

[Col Lector]

Nice bollinger band squeeze, RSI not too high, likely to break out... lets just hope its up... 52 week high of 1.78 is not a likely target yet but 1.50 can't be out of the question. :D:D

Gidday legs....made/making short work of 1.50....I think $1.78 just round the corner on the basis of the impressive UBS presentation today. The combination of both conventional oil/gas, & "green" energy will likely ensure strong ongoing investor interest. Tipton-west is a nice asset to have but the geothermal project a news-generator ongoing.

[legs]

Gidday legs....made/making short work of 1.50....I think $1.78 just round the corner on the basis of the impressive UBS presentation today. The combination of both conventional oil/gas, & "green" energy will likely ensure strong ongoing investor interest. Tipton-west is a nice asset to have but the geothermal project a news-generator ongoing.

I agree after todays presentation the sky's the limit... i didn't honestly think that it would have been that impressive. On Monday i was going to take profits at 1.50 but i think iw illl hang onto them for a little longer and see what happens..:D
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/getAnnPdf('/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=', '00727056', 'Announcement');return false;

[motorway]

Breaking out from a zone of absorption
trend lines nicely defined the action

Price could not react back to the 50% level
= strength

Volume indicator shows supply
= absorption ( effort and result not in harmony)

confirmation is the breakout
( Though We are not at the close YET :) )

motorway

[TheRage]

Closed at 1.49 on volume of 8,000,000 shares. ABN AMRO presentation probably helping the price a little.

[legs]

Didn't even budge a cent on Friday against the markets 1.26% drop! Must be strong. All the talk about BHP standing up well against Fridays move, what about this little beauty's response. Are we in for a good rise on Tuesdays open? :D

[Col Lector]

Gidday Legs...
Apparently BPT is named as the The Smart Investor - June 07
VIP stock for year 2008.
Yet to check it out myself....but bodes well for this week....& beyond.

[legs]

Gidday Legs...
Apparently BPT is named as the The Smart Investor - June 07
VIP stock for year 2008.
Yet to check it out myself....but bodes well for this week....& beyond.

Just hoping it wasn't all to do with ABN AMRO presentation earlier in the week. But some other announcement or brokers tip.

[Jay-684]

Its also recommended as a BUY on Australian Stock Report as of last week too, around the $1.48 mark from memory...

[Kauri]

I will be watching..(I hope.. :( ) over the next few days to see if the tentative trading chanell along with the typical W4 area give support, could even turn into another pyramid opportunity if my stop is not claimed..

[Kauri]

Kauri, shouldn't your support run up underneath the channel as the base? I would have put it more along the lines of below. Or this because of the W4 area you're talking about. $1.40 looks to be pretty important in this view. $1.35 is support by my reckoning, and might be past a breakdown. Stochs look ugly at the moment. Not much difference here, just curious as to why you've put support exactly where you have? cheers.

Kennas,
Sorry for the confusion, not having a good week...
My stop is not at a logical support level, rather based on E/W.. i.e W4 can't (on equities at least) overlap W1.. if it does the pattern I am trying to trade is invalid, hence a close below the red stop line will see me depart...
Cheers
Kauri

I knew I was having a bad week...but now I am replying to non-existant posts!!

[kennas]

Kennas, Sorry for the confusion, not having a good week... My stop is not at a logical support level, rather based on E/W.. i.e W4 can't (on equities at least) overlap W1.. if it does the pattern I am trying to trade is invalid, hence a close below the red stop line will see me depart... Cheers, KauriLOL, sorry for my confusion. Seems obvious what the lines are now. $1.40 looks pretty important here doesn't it. Breaking $1.35 will confirm it out of the current trend although might be too much leeway. So, I agree that your stop there is prudent, just on S&R.

[canaussieuck]

My stops is 1.40, but i'll use the close in case it does get bought off the lows today...this has been a frustrating share for me, i think i've been in and out of BPT a half dozen times now over the last couple of years, stopped out every time....:banghead:

Cheers,

[TheRage]

My stops is 1.40, but i'll use the close in case it does get bought off the lows today...this has been a frustrating share for me, i think i've been in and out of BPT a half dozen times now over the last couple of years, stopped out every time....:banghead:

Cheers,

I feel your frustration. This stock is fundamentally stronger than most of the oilers. The earnings are real, they are transparent and the Dehli acquisition seems to be paying off for beach. I just don't see why others can't see the value.

[canaussieuck]

I feel your frustration. This stock is fundamentally stronger than most of the oilers. The earnings are real, they are transparent and the Dehli acquisition seems to be paying off for beach. I just don't see why others can't see the value.

Well it closed the day .5 above my stop so its safe for now...its on the trendline now, a bounce and we're back on our way, if it goes through then its 'another one bites the dust'!

I've got stopped out 9 times in the last two weeks! Thankfully my winners are still holding up...its been a full time job just managing stops.

What do you see as fair value for BPT?

Cheers,

[mime]

Have faith canaussieuck. I think long team this stock is a winner. I bought ages ago at $.45 or so and hoping it becomes the next oil search and then Woodside. I can dream huh?

[TheRage]

Well it closed the day .5 above my stop so its safe for now...its on the trendline now, a bounce and we're back on our way, if it goes through then its 'another one bites the dust'!

I've got stopped out 9 times in the last two weeks! Thankfully my winners are still holding up...its been a full time job just managing stops.

What do you see as fair value for BPT?

Cheers,

On forecast earnings for end of financial year at 11 cents which on interim data would suggest that this target might be met we can roughly value Beach by multiplying average historic PE by earnings. This gives us a rough current value for the company. PE average for past 7 years has been 13 therefore 13 * 0.11 = $1.43. So at this point in time providing beach meet production output, which seems likely the company should be valued where it currently is. However value should also reflect future earnings and based on a forecast of 20 cents in FY08 it would be tempting to think that Beach should be valued a little higher .2 * 13 at around $2.60 however to think that Beach will be exactly equal to $2.60 in 2008 would be foolhardy but not impossible. Using this valuation technique does not account for the total cash flows over a period of time but rather a snapshot. With barel prices locked in at $65 for the next 4 years and with the option to take up higher oil prices we can be assured that oil price won't change the value as much as the production outputs and reserves of the company which Beach has plenty of both. Beach has 10 year of oil in reserve, plenty of LNG which seems to becoming vogue and geothermal energy to hedge against any negative sentiment toward oil. I think a fair valuation would be around $1.50 for now but if production forecasts are in line or greater, this stock should be worth $3 in the next year or two. I am prepared to hold.

Dislaimer: this is only my opinion and not financial advice DYOR.

[canaussieuck]

On forecast earnings for end of financial year at 11 cents which on interim data would suggest that this target might be met we can roughly value Beach by multiplying average historic PE by earnings. This gives us a rough current value for the company. PE average for past 7 years has been 13 therefore 13 * 0.11 = $1.43. So at this point in time providing beach meet production output, which seems likely the company should be valued where it currently is. However value should also reflect future earnings and based on a forecast of 20 cents in FY08 it would be tempting to think that Beach should be valued a little higher .2 * 13 at around $2.60 however to think that Beach will be exactly equal to $2.60 in 2008 would be foolhardy but not impossible. Using this valuation technique does not account for the total cash flows over a period of time but rather a snapshot. With barel prices locked in at $65 for the next 4 years and with the option to take up higher oil prices we can be assured that oil price won't change the value as much as the production outputs and reserves of the company which Beach has plenty of both. Beach has 10 year of oil in reserve, plenty of LNG which seems to becoming vogue and geothermal energy to hedge against any negative sentiment toward oil. I think a fair valuation would be around $1.50 for now but if production forecasts are in line or greater, this stock should be worth $3 in the next year or two. I am prepared to hold.

Dislaimer: this is only my opinion and not financial advice DYOR.

Thanks heaps mate, good to hear the fundy side once in while...1 broker rates it a mod buy and 2 a strong buy too.

Cheers,

[TheRage]

Thanks heaps mate, good to hear the fundy side once in while...1 broker rates it a mod buy and 2 a strong buy too.

Cheers,

No worries. I am a fundie at heart but I am starting to use charts more and more. I also agree with your stop loss level and am tempted to average down a little. I can't help but think this stock will bounce back especially after June 30 when last minute super contributions will be pumped back into the market.

[TheRage]

Beach firmed up to $1.47 on 6.5 million volume. Let's hope the trend resumes but without some good news I am not sure that it will continue easily.

[clowboy]

Would I be right in saying that BPT is forming an acending triangle? And if it plays out and breaks above ~$1.50 that would be bullish and warrant a trade ?

Hopefully the chart attaches right

[Kauri]

BPT may be getting ready to move on into W5.. not really a pyramid opportunity for me, but if it goes the way I think it will I'll be looking to add at the start of the next intermediate wave... maybe.. :)

[kennas]

BPT may be getting ready to move on into W5.. not really a pyramid opportunity for me, but if it goes the way I think it will I'll be looking to add at the start of the next intermediate wave... maybe.. :)Building up a little steam here I think. Gotta give one way or the other and you'd think up, with the momentum in this, and the sector. Could this be a handle on a cup? Target $2.10? :sly: Cup might be a bit V shaped I suppose. Handle not long enough. :dunno:

[Kauri]

Building up a little steam here I think. Gotta give one way or the other and you'd think up, with the momentum in this, and the sector. Could this be a handle on a cup? Target $2.10? :sly: Cup might be a bit V shaped I suppose. Handle not long enough. :dunno:

Hi Kennas,
Might be a bigger cup in play too?? Never sure untill they have completed of course.. :)
Cheers
Kauri

[Kauri]

The last of my posted currently open CFD DMA trading portfolio shares...will leave the stop as is and possibly put on a MA stop if it moves on up...
Cheers
Kauri

[zuluwarrior08]

Still trading in that ascending triangle, closed just above dynamic support on FRI at 1.445/1.50. Im waiting on this one to explode, but who knows if it will go up or down? :banghead:how much longer will it trade in this range.

Fundamentals look good still, I wonder who will last out, buyers or sellers?

Will be good to watch this week :D

[Kauri]

Beach looks like it may be going to make a bit of a run, good volume early on too..
...Cheers
.......Kauri

[clowboy]

Pre open?

I cant find an anouncment saying why? anyone else have any anouncments showing?

If it is a speeding ticket there should still be an anouncment shouldnt there?

Anyway hope it's good

[Kauri]

What a surprise... trading halt ( no insiders-smart money??) on Basker-Gummy oil optimisation..
.....Cheers
.............Kauri

[clowboy]

Doesn't seem like a very good anouncment? I would think the share price will fall back now? Am i Reading it right?

[Kauri]

Doesn't seem like a very good anouncment? I would think the share price will fall back now? Am i Reading it right?

Clowboy,
Looks like it, I've got out at $1.50, left a fair chunk of todays action on the table but can't win them all... starting to look like a classic blow-off...
.Cheers
........Kauri

[clowboy]

Another trading halt. yay


I noticed this last trading halt and this one as well (see attached)

Is this some kind of bot trading or what?

[56gsa]

Sorry - don't have time to do this research myself but seems the Baskar Mantra project is having a number of troubles - what percentage of BPTs future revenues does this represent?

thanks to anyone who can help...

[coinemas]

Attached is the link to BPT's March 07 report, If my math is correct, which shows that oil revenue from Gippsland basin ( Basker Manta ) represent about 24% of total BPT's during that Qtr.

SP has down 12% , market may be overreacting? given that BManta will be back in operational within "a number of weeks" not months.

Fri 6/7 another ann after market closed . "WARRAGON-1 SPUDS IN SW QUEENSLAND" estimate mean recoverable oil 1.33MMBO + 0.56MMBO .

Would like to see other member's comment.



http://www.beachpetroleum.com.au/files/reports/asx_releases/2007/048-07QuarterlyReporttoMarch2007.pdf

[TheRage]

Okay here is the deal for Basker.

Oil sales for the whole of Beach for the quarter = 2590 KBOE = 2,590,000 Barrels of oil.

Basker
Average BOPD for 1/4 = 8752
8752 * 365/4 = 798620 Barrels of oil for quarter.

798620/ 2590000
=31% of sales from Basker.


I am not entrely convinced fall in current Sp is due to Basker problems but rather Alinta gas deal collapsing. I got stopped out at 1.40 but once we find a bottom again I will jump back in. I think BEach management are doing a good job and it seems with all of the interest in green energy everyone overlooks the fact Beach own 21% of Petratherm Energy and has the option to buy another 15% into the company.

[reece55]

..........with all of the interest in green energy everyone overlooks the fact Beach own 21% of Petratherm Energy and has the option to buy another 15% into the company.

Rage
Beach have an equity interest in the Paralana Joint Venture, not the Company itself.

Just thought I would make the distinction for you, because it is only that one project that Beach will have equity in, provided they meet the farm in expenditure requirements.

Minotaur Exploration Ltd is actually the biggest holder in the entity, with 34% of the issued capital.

Cheers
Reece

[TheRage]

Reece thanks for clearing that up. No excuses for getting that one wrong. I still think beach is cheap on forward earnings but the question is whether Beach has the oil supply to last beyond 10 years?

[56gsa]

thanks for your comments above - as we suspected it looks like the market may have overdone things - news out today seems to have given them a lift - will this continue to test 1.50 mark again? or too early to say? PoO up and good news on other projects continues...
Others thoughts?


BASKER MANTA COMPLETES INSPECTION OF STATUS OF SINGLE POINT MOORING (SPM)

The BMG JV provides the following summary of activities and plans following the incident last Thursday when the BMG shuttle tanker, the Basker Spirit, drifted from its SPM in Bass Strait.

Inspection of the SPM component on the surface and subsurface using a Remotely Operated Vehicle (ROV) has confirmed the site of the mooring failure. A pin in one of the chain shackles has become dislodged, allowing the upper mooring elements to detach from the three point mooring at the nodal point. The mooring system itself is in good condition, with no reason to question its integrity. The hose that transfers oil from the Crystal Ocean FPSO to the Basker Spirit has been damaged as it took the load of the Basker Spirit when the shackle decoupled from the nodal point. The BMG JV has spare hoses in stock.

To restore the full mooring system and allow full production to recommence will require a specialized construction vessel to be mobilized. The need for lifting capacity and saturation diving capability requires such a vessel. The BMG JV is sourcing such a vessel now and expects to have one (of three possible vessels) in the field in the latter part of August, subject to negotiations with the vessel owners.

In the meantime, the BMG JV plans to continue production, with the Basker Spirit moored in Westernport Bay or other acceptable ports, with the Crystal Ocean transferring crude oil to the Basker Spirit in a shuttle operation. It is expected that production of about 3,000 bopd [so thats about one third of normal production] can be maintained with this operation. Production will increase to the field capacity when the SPM integrity is re-established and the Basker Spirit resumes its mooring location in the field.

[Chief Wigam]

Seems to be good up side with this stock and short term target is $1.60.

Was travelling nicely until this recent market correction.

[Fab]

Seems to be good up side with this stock and short term target is $1.60.

Was travelling nicely until this recent market correction.

Indeed I am surprised BPT is not much higher yet. This might help.

"Beach Petroleum Ltd has continued to break quarterly and annual production and sales
revenue records and has also booked a big increase in petroleum reserves in the period
ended 30 June 2007.
Sales revenue in the June quarter rose 18 per cent to a record $A93.03 million, up from
$A78.6 million in the March 2007 quarter":)

[howardlian]

Anyone knows how to calculate for every 1000 barrel of oil, how much does it add to its e.p.s. Thanks

[mime]

Doesn't Beach have interest in geothermal energy?

http://news.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=92248

It sounds pretty good except the cost of infrastructure.

[jroesten]

Im back in this now at $1.22....bought at 30c a couple of years ago and sold completely out at $1.40 mid last year. I didnt like the reaction of the market to the takeover last year or the way the bonus shares were issued at an above market price, or the huge increase the directors took in pay ....but confidence seems to have returned and the bedding process is hopefully over now.....so as a price of oil bet it looks good to me :-)..but take your own gambling advice. ;-)..Good luck to all.

[Fab]

Very nice jump in price today. I can't understand how a stock like BPT is still in the low $1. Does anyone know why it went up over 10% today?

[Riles]

This article in SMH may have helped...

Beach is starting to look underpriced

Reg Nelson gets to preside over the release of what should be a bumper result for Beach Petroleum on Wednesday. Thanks to a full year from the Delhi acquisition, the market will be looking for something near the $90 million mark ahead of a charge to $200 million in following years.


That's why analyst Stuart Baker at Morgan Stanley slapped a $2-a-share price target on the stock early last month when Beach was looking nice and strong at $1.43 a share. That Beach has drifted back to $1.145 on Friday - it hit 99c on Black Thursday - reflects the lack of rebound for the stock since the subprime sell-off, plus some disappointment that the BMG oil project in Bass Strait needs remedial work to get to original forecast production levels.

Wednesday's profit report could be the catalyst for the rerating that Baker and others think is now due to Beach, now ranked number four in our listed oil and gas stocks behind Woodside, Santos and Oil Search. Now that Beach has arrived as a sizeable and profitable producer for the long term (20 years-plus), Nelson has cranked up its exploration portfolio.

Four high-impact wells are now slotted to be drilled in the next 15 months. The big Fermat 1 gas target offshore from Portland in Victoria (1200 petajoules in the second quarter of 2008) has been locked in for a while. The new additions (1 in New Zealand's Taranaki Basin and two in the Bass Basin) each have the potential to yield net oil reserves to Beach of more than 20 million barrels of oil.

[bhutos]

This article in SMH may have helped...

Beach is starting to look underpriced

Reg Nelson gets to preside over the release of what should be a bumper result for Beach Petroleum on Wednesday. Thanks to a full year from the Delhi acquisition, the market will be looking for something near the $90 million mark ahead of a charge to $200 million in following years.


That's why analyst Stuart Baker at Morgan Stanley slapped a $2-a-share price target on the stock early last month when Beach was looking nice and strong at $1.43 a share. That Beach has drifted back to $1.145 on Friday - it hit 99c on Black Thursday - reflects the lack of rebound for the stock since the subprime sell-off, plus some disappointment that the BMG oil project in Bass Strait needs remedial work to get to original forecast production levels.

Wednesday's profit report could be the catalyst for the rerating that Baker and others think is now due to Beach, now ranked number four in our listed oil and gas stocks behind Woodside, Santos and Oil Search. Now that Beach has arrived as a sizeable and profitable producer for the long term (20 years-plus), Nelson has cranked up its exploration portfolio.

Four high-impact wells are now slotted to be drilled in the next 15 months. The big Fermat 1 gas target offshore from Portland in Victoria (1200 petajoules in the second quarter of 2008) has been locked in for a while. The new additions (1 in New Zealand's Taranaki Basin and two in the Bass Basin) each have the potential to yield net oil reserves to Beach of more than 20 million barrels of oil.

Yes... the last two weeks have been insane. I'd been doing a lot of comparisons between similar producing companies. I'm very happy though - it gave me a chance to get in a $1.16

[Porper]

Very nice jump in price today. I can't understand how a stock like BPT is still in the low $1. Does anyone know why it went up over 10% today?

Certainly a good trading stock, unfortunately I sold out friday, pre-empting the reversal crossover on the oscilator.

Insane decision as you should always wait for the confirmation, not second guess things.

A slap across the face with a wet fish and learn......................again :banghead:

[mime]

Must be good news today with a 80 point drop bpt is up or so 3%. Lets see what the future brings and fingers crossed.

[chicken]

With those no published today and results up ...with great profits...I bought today at $1.24.....also years ago about 2 years they reduced their shares at 10 to 1 so I decided at reading their balance sheet its time to rebuy....happy and holding....took a while to get through their news but looking good....read it and DYOR...financials to June2007....and 2008 looking even bigger:banghead:

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi folks,

BPT ... looking for a HUGE rally, between 21122007 and 31122007,
then more positive news, 25-28012008 .....

..... must go, more later.

happy days

paul

:)

=====

[Ken]

i bought BPT at 1.09 but sold out at 1.19
errr

smart investor magazine with amazing profit and growth.

as far oilers go

hows is BPT.

out of the following why BPT??

COE
ARQ
PSA
ROC
TAP

[Ken]

I am a little cautious on Oilers at the moment.

The Oil price goes to $50 a barrel again and majority of oil stocks are going to tank.

Very unpredictable. I have a theory that the Iraq's and Arab Emirates love moving the price of oil around they are the ones that can make bucket loads of cash as they control the flow thus determining the price?

So if it gets to high, they can slam it down....

I have no doubt its corrupt to some extent.

[chicken]

I am a little cautious on Oilers at the moment.

The Oil price goes to $50 a barrel again and majority of oil stocks are going to tank.

Very unpredictable. I have a theory that the Iraq's and Arab Emirates love moving the price of oil around they are the ones that can make bucket loads of cash as they control the flow thus determining the price?

So if it gets to high, they can slam it down....

I have no doubt its corrupt to some extent.

Ken, for once I do not agree with you....the US is trying to controll the oil price..BUT....the CHINESE are DRIVING motor cars...and getting OFF THEIR BIKES...that means...DEMAND is up...so your $50 a barrel,,,,,We can all dream...its more likely to go to a $100 a barrel...CHINESE are NOT getting back on their bikes...just been to Singapore...and if you seen what I have than you would understand...more like $100 a barrel of oil....the Chinese are driving the latest Mercedes,BMW and Rolls Royce cars...in Singapore...and there seems to be No let up...in China...with a population of 1.4 billion people say only 1/4 would drive a car...work it out the usage of oil needed...is hugh...now where would you get such a supply...work it out...your $50 a barrel is a pipe dream....only if the whole world economy would collapse...than perhaps....in the meantime we have INFLATION...thanks to Uncle SAM....ready to pounce in a big way...soon a $1million will be the norm for everyone...the US will soon reduce intrest rates...the market is swinging for that...see the dow....and the inflation spiral starts again...there is NO way of stopping it..so get used to it...as $50 per barrel..niece one....:banghead:

[chicken]

20million shares traded today....BPT in the ASX200....funds are buying...BPT now 4th largest producer in Australia....and results are proving it...see their report...must read if wanting to invest....I hold....growthstock.....Reg Nelson the CEO said...many new wells going to be drilled and nodoubt will become productive...see Surat basin....also in NZ will be involved....see their profit result and sales...really starting to motor.....looks as if BPT has finaly cracked the big league....see their production.....I like the CEO had a hard time to start with but seems to have it sussed...:banghead:

[chicken]

24million shares traded.....looking the part....rose 9cents.....so what price for these.....on other boards saying more like $2 now...look at that $500MILLION SAles of oil.....Reg is now in the big league...not bad for a company which was rearected.....I am holding:banghead:

[mime]

I am a little cautious on Oilers at the moment.

The Oil price goes to $50 a barrel again and majority of oil stocks are going to tank.

Very unpredictable. I have a theory that the Iraq's and Arab Emirates love moving the price of oil around they are the ones that can make bucket loads of cash as they control the flow thus determining the price?

So if it gets to high, they can slam it down....

I have no doubt its corrupt to some extent.

An understandable concern but OPEC will collude together if the price falls to low so I feel there is no reason for concern.

[chicken]

Could you fellows post something constructive about BPT.....the price of oil is controlled by supply and demand as far as going back to $50.....as I said before...NO WAY HOSAY...why...explain why you think it will go to $50...You cant..can you...I expained why it will rise....everyday more petrol is needed to run the transports...so OIL will not be down...as far as the arabs mucking around with the price....the arabs will sell at the highest price the market can afford to pay....and BPT are now Australians 4th largest producer...now that is hugh for a company everyone thought was out the back door....what a great result for BPT...better to come...24million shares traded...funds are buying up large....:banghead: