PTD - Peptech Limited

[JetDollars]

What do you guys think of PTD?

[GreatPig]

From a quick look in FCharts (and as you can see on the posted chart), I'd say it's oscillating sideways and creating a symmetric triangle.

I think I'd be waiting to see which way it breaks out.

GP

[stefan]

It's interesting to see all these postings refering to charts to predict a movement. I'm wondering how a stock that's trading at a very low price and volume level can be predicted based on charts. Especially tech stocks where movement is mostly based on news. I would see a certain benefit from charts for stocks like Coca Cola, Palmolive, Ford, P&G to name a few US companies. These stocks tend to follow a certain pattern. But for tech and bio stocks I can't see any benefit in charts.

What do you guys think?

[JetDollars]

Stefan,

I am learning here, it's good that you point that out, thank you. Since it's just a paper trading, so it's an opportunity for me to identify my mistake.

Anyway, PTD close at $1.35, but still within a symmetrical triangle formation with average volume.

I will continue watching it for a breaks out.

[wayneL]

Technical analysis is a broad church Stefan.

It all depends on your trading rules. *I personally wouldn't trade those you mention because they generally don't move enough.

If you are into momentum type trading, charts are indespensible in trading stocks like PTD.

It's horses for courses.

I don't use charts to predict at all, rather, I use charts to "detect" low risk oportunities, and to set risk control parameters.

[wayneL]

It's interesting to see all these postings refering to charts to predict a movement. I'm wondering how a stock that's trading at a very low price and volume level can be predicted based on charts.

This is not to have a go at you specifically Stefan, but its an important point.

I just read this statement from Mongoose on another forum and it's worth repeating here: "Belif(sic) in prediction is the mother of all other bad trading habits!"

There is a common misconception that tech analysis is about predicting price movements. This is not so. Some try... e.g. some the Gann type bods.

Prediction is fatal without some sort of moneymanagement...as is any type of trading

The biggest traders do not predict at all, it's all about following trends of various time frames.

End of Sermon :P ::) :-X

[richbb]

Hi, all,

I think it's very important to use technical analysis to do short or medium term trading, or even much help to use it for so-called long-time investments(more than ten years or until you die?).

If you like, you can predict the price movement, but that's not all about charts. I use the chart to determind the possibility of future movement of a particular stock, and most importantly when to exit if it doesn't go as you like.

Any way, if you want to survive in share trading, it's better to have a open mind, open to accept any idea and keep learning new things. When you learn more about technical analysis, I think you'll like to use more.

Just a little bit of my own thought

Happy trading

richbb

[Joe Blow]

I think I'm more likely to apply technical analysis to traditional blue chip stocks.

I find speculative stocks behave far more erratically and tend to be more news driven. They are much more dangerous but for some strange reason I am drawn to them.

I guess it's the gambler in me.

[profithunter]

I agree.

With regards to PTD I would be checking out the qualitative aspects, such as if they have any royalties owed to them or what research are they up to.

[stefan]

Interesting reading. Thanks for all the feedback. Well, I agree that there are reasons to look at charts. Even I use them when I want to know something about a particular company and its performance in the past. BUT how can I use charts to predict movement? I can try and find a bottom/support level for a particular stock, but only if there is nothing substantially wrong with it. No chart is going to tell me that management is out of sync or that they are running out of money. Using charts as part of an investment decision seems to be ok. But to actually use it as a decision tool would look rather foolish to me.


his is not to have a go at you specifically Stefan, but its an important point.
I just read this statement from Mongoose on another forum and it's worth repeating here: "Belif(sic) in rediction is the mother of all other bad trading habits!"
There is a common misconception that tech analysis is about predicting price movements. This is not so. Some try... e.g. some the Gann type bods.
Prediction is fatal without some sort of moneymanagement...as is any type of trading.
The biggest traders do not predict at all, it's all about following trends of various time frames.

Wayne, why would I consider this as having a go at me? It seems to support my critical point that charts can not be used to predict anything, especially further movment.

I do however not agree that trading is all about following trends of various time frames. It may be so for a day trader trying to make a quick dime. But over a long term period, these things hardly ever work. I tend to stick to trading principles.

In matters of style, swim with the current. In matters of principles, stand like a rock.

[GreatPig]

Stefan,


BUT how can I use charts to predict movement?
In my opinion, charts are not about predictions but rather about probabilities. Charts will help increase the probability of trading at opportune times.

The way I see it, fundamentals indicate what a company is doing, while charts indicate what the share market is doing. The share market doesn't always logically follow the state of the company.

For a more extensive discussion on charts vs fundamentals, take a look at Daryl Guppy's book "Chart Trading". He seems to have quite a passion for the subject ;D.

Cheers,
GP

[JetDollars]

In my opinion...

Whether you use chart or fundamental for opportunity to buy shares that you are interested is up to individual which ever make you comfortable, but most important whatever you decide will make profits.

If your analysis that you choose does not make any profits then there is something wrong with your system.

A combination of fundamentals and technicals seem to be a very good idea to analyse shares that you want to purchase, but again I believe technical analysis through charting probably the best to work out the entry signals.

[wayneL]

Stefan,

>>I do however not agree that trading is all about following trends of various time frames. It may be so for a day trader trying to make a quick dime. But over a long term period, these things hardly ever work. I tend to stick to trading principles. <<

Looking for clarification in your comments:

So you're saying that trend following only works intraday? Longer term trend following, say several weeks to over a year, rarely works?

Also, what do you mean by trading principles?

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

personally i agree with JD, about fundamentals and techincal analysis, personally i find both go hand in hand, what favours me towards technical analysis is, you can identify your break in points, through trend positioning and reversal patterns that are occuring...

Cheers,
sis

[Aceyducey]

I started off primarily tech trading. I use tech analysis still for bread'n'butter trading....drop large lumps into a stock & exit with a few grand profit but overall find myself drawn more & more towards fundamentals.

Partly this is because I'm primarily now trading in areas which do not respond so well to tech analysis, but it's also because there seems to be some great undervalued opportunities out in the market right now.....bearing in mind that this only works if the rest of the market recognises them ;)

Emotion leads more than reason in the market!

Cheers,

Aceyducey

[wayneL]

Stefan,

>>I do however not agree that trading is all about following trends of various time frames. It may be so for a day trader trying to make a quick dime. But over a long term period, these things hardly ever work. I tend to stick to trading principles. *<<

Looking for clarification in your comments:

So you're saying that trend following only works intraday? Longer term trend following, say several weeks to over a year, rarely works?

Also, what do you mean by trading principles?


Stefan, I am still interested in a reply!

Regarding teqhnique (this thread certainly is going off at a tangent):

There are hundreds of ways of skinning this particular cat...what works is REAL!!!!

My method...well this is my only income, so mainly swing trading. It's too fast and furious to consider fundamentals, even if I were interested in them. Most of the shares I trade, I don't even know what they do...and I am often barely aware of the companies name. It is just a chart.

There is only one fundamental that I track; announcement dates. I don't want to be in a stock when it makes an announcement.

My expectancy figures run at around the 1.5. With a high number of trades, business is going just fine.

I also tuck a few away in the bottom drawer...those that I have bothered to research and like on a business basis.

[Dutchy3]

Hi All

Time to drag this one up again.

LONG yesterday on the CLOSE yet todays action hesitant. Good volume increasing on the BIG WHITES within the pattern over the last few months though. Can aford to give it some room.

Still a CLOSE below 1.40 would have me exit

[Dutchy3]

Here's the chart

Hesitation on the last two days of last week somewhat disconcerting and as the 'breakout day' didn't really puch into new air, a half position taken

[Dutchy3]

Having a better day and the Market Depth is swinging more favourable.

Taken the other half of a LONG position.

Lets see how it closes

[Dutchy3]

Compounded into this again today.

Some selling on the close still.

Slight relative increase in volumes though. All in all balance of probabilities suggests higher prices in the 2 - 3 month time frame

[boults_4545]

Huntley's now have PTD recommended as a buy. Price is at it's lowest since nov 2005, what do u guys think?

cheers,
b

[Dutchy3]

Hi Boults

Took a marginally profitable dayly position in this one a while back and moved on.

Typically didn't bother to follow any of my rules and did not really look at the weekly at the time some tied up capital is what was ultimatley a disappointing trade. Was coming off a few good positions, so, typically I though I was infalabile at the time.

Saw the weekly though!

Tell you what .... I get a BIG WHITE close through that long red downtrend line and I'll be long

[Dutchy3]

Thought I'd do a zoom on this one ... No doubts the forum thinks I'm mad to follow this stock ... THIS SITUATION CAN NOT LAST ... indeed it may fail and drop below 120 ... or it will be one of the 'suprises' of 2006/07 .... waiting for the signal

[x2rider]

hi dutchy
It's getting an Aim listing on the 15/12 2006 so might start to se a bit of a rise over the next couple of weeks :)
Cheers martin

[rub92me]

Well, something is up alright. In a trading halt since last Friday.
Someone wants in on the action, check out the pre-open for this one. An order for 250,000 for 75% above the price and plenty of buy depth to follow..

[rub92me]

Ah, I know what's up. From the SMH this morning:


Peptech sells UK researcher for $178m
Kirsty Simpson
December 11, 2006
SYDNEY biotechnology group Peptech is poised to pocket $178 million after the sale of one of its major assets, a one-third stake in British antibodies researcher Domantis, to multinational GlaxoSmithKline.
GSK will pay a total of $575 million for Domantis, in a deal that was unveiled late on Friday night and is expected to be completed in January.
Peptech chairman Mel Bridges said the company would realise a gain of $138.2 million for its stake, after investing $40 million in the privately held British company in three tranches between 2001 and late 2005.
Other joint venture partners include a Mitsubishi subsidiary and Europe's largest biotech, Novo Nordisk.
"This is an outstanding result, particularly given the largely pre- clinical stage of Domantis's development pipeline," Mr Bridges said.
The windfall will be set aside for acquisitions and clinical trials. One of Peptech's most promising auto-immune drugs, PN0621 (supplied by Domantis) enters costly stage one clinical trials next year.
Peptech recently unveiled an aggressive growth strategy, revolving around rising drug development spending, and further acquisitions - there were two small purchases last year.
Chief executive Dr John Kiplin said the company also remained open to mergers, and had spoken to more than a hundred companies during the course of its recent buying spree.
Peptech considered its Domantis investment one of its five major assets, but Dr Kiplin said the sale would not affect its commercial collaborative relationship with Domantis, allowing Peptech to select two further therapeutic targets for Domantis to research.
Peptide shares closed on Friday at $1.30.

[Dutchy3]

Damm I good ... totally untradeable of course ... still plenty more out there!

[Gurgler]

Biotechnology company Peptech Ltd has appointed Citigroup to advise it on several approaches made by private equity firms and other biotechnology companies

up 14.5 cents or 8.15 per cent to $1.925

[Crash]

Peptech Ltd has announced a $137.7 million half yearly profit, a jump of 2,415 per cent on the previous year, and a record for the company.

And up on open this morning.

[rub92me]

Bit of a blow-off sale (high volume, dipped to a long term low and came back above the open) yesterday after a 6 month slide. I'll be watching this over the next couple of days/weeks. If it moves up from here and breaks through 1.30 again I may hop on.