VBA - Virgin Blue Holdings

[JetDollars]

VBA really going blue today as well, heading south since the market open.

[profithunter]

Its been a double blow for VBA. The increased competition from Jetstar means that they will have to wear a large percentage of the costs from higher oil prices rather than passing it on to consumers. This situation coupled with the loss of market share will hurt them badly.

[GreatPig]

Yeah, what happened yesterday? Yahoo doesn't show any current news items about them.

GP


*** Oh thanks, Profithunter. So that's what's happening.

[westan]

Hi Guys

VBA is at its lowest levels since listing, while in the short term it is hard to see it moving up, it must start to look like a long term buy if it drops much further. I notice "huntley" still gives it an "avoid" recommmendation.

I'd be tempted as i still think they have a significant role to play in the expanding aviation industry.

What do you guys think?

regards westan

[profithunter]

I think that maybe VBA has been a victim of its own success. It rapidly gained 30% of market share and became a success story. But once it listed it was hard to forsee any significant future growth. Now it seems to be losing since the inception of Jetstar

[ghotib]

Hi Guys

I'd be tempted as i still think they have a significant role to play in the expanding aviation industry.



Westan

Why do you see the aviation industry as expanding, and specifically the airLINE industry? Seems to me that passenger travel is likely to be squeezed by prices and terrorism (I think we'll eventually get used to terrorism and treat it like the risk of earthquake in NZ, but it'll take a while), and if oil prices keep rising rail might actually start to look like a winner for freight. I think airlines are going to be fighting for share in a static market for a long time.

Ghoti

[ghotib]

Yeah, what happened yesterday? Yahoo doesn't show any current news items about them.

GP


*** Oh thanks, Profithunter. So that's what's happening.

GP not sure if you're referring to Profithunter's msg here or to a pointer to some other news.

VBA were in the news last night and in the general press today because they said "its profits had slumped 22 per cent for the first four months of this financial year."

You can find a report at http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2004/08/04/1091557921280.html

Cheers,

Ghoti

[westan]

Hi Ghoti

i said expanding aviation industry because people are flying more and more these days a trend i think will continue to happen.

You are right the margains are no as hiogh as they once were. We have to remember the aviation industry is littered with the debis of backrupt airlines.

Can Virgin's model survive ??? I expect Yes.

regards westan

[RodC]

People are flying more because the price has come down. However the airlines are eating themselves in order to keep their margins low.
The margins at the moment are so thin that any extra cost (like the oil price) can really hurt, especially when
(like Virgin) they don't have the option of passing the costs on to the travelling public due to increased competition.

I don't have any great confidence in the airline industry at the moment, but I do expect Virgin to survive.

regards,

Rod.

[GreatPig]

Thanks for the news link, Ghotib. Hadn't seen that.

GP

[Guest]

Hi all,

If looking at profit margins, Virgin Blue is MUCH better than JetStar. In fact the average cost per kilometer of airtravel for Virgin Blue continues to fall, even with the rise in oil prices and the competition from JetStar. One thing is certain - the cometition between the airlines cannot go on forever. Qantas will have to keep injecting cash into JetStar to keep up this war.

Don't expect Virgin Blue to die lying down! They are smaller, but a lot more versatile than Qantas (JetStar cannot beat the deals they have with Boeing & various airports) I think the stock still has some kick in it and is good value at current levels.

Time will tell...

[malachii]

For what it's worth - an industry insiders view (I work for the red tail mob)

The industry itself is only going to get harder from here. We have to deal with rising fuel costs, rising costs due to terrorism prevention (which we all know dont work), rising airport and operation cost etc. These are matched by falling margins and more competition. People seem to think that VBA's only competitiors are Qantas and Jetstar. What they dont realize is that more and more other overseas airlines are competing both on a domestic and international scale. With Emerities now - not only can you fly from overseas to any capital city in Oz but you can also fly internally with them. This means that the tourists coming over dont just land at Syd or Mel and then get on VBA or QAN to get around Oz.

You also have to consider the value of Jetstar to Qantas. If it lost $100-$200 million per year every year and was not likely to ever make a profit (no - I'm not saying that it will make a loss) it would be seen by Qantas management as a bargain. Not only is it taking VBA's eye of the ball (and stealing more market share) but it also prevents other major airlines from setting up domestic competitors (believe me Singapore have tried to do this several times now and have pulled out at the last moment). Then you also have the "wannabes" such as that formula one guy that is still trying to set up Ozjet. There are also many reasons (mainly cost savings) for getting rid of the B717's and replacing them with much cheaper A320's.

Not taking anything from VBA - look at what has happened since it set up in Oz. Ansett colapsed (twice), Olympics, 9/11 (actually very profitable for Oz airlines domestically because everyone cancelled overseas holidays and travelled around Oz instead) and other things that probably only matter inside the aviation industry. It would almost be impossible NOT to have grown like they did.

And the final word that is always going around the hallowed halls at Qantas...."If you could make money in airlines - Packer would have 2"

[barnz2k]

wow no mention here in a long time..
Is VBA still planning to start their international service from aus?
I have a small amount in VBA and its been pretty much stagnant..

[barnz2k]

anyone holding VBA now?
im planning to sell off after no change in months. And no word on their aus international market

[UPKA]

anyone holding VBA now?
im planning to sell off after no change in months. And no word on their aus international market

A lot of broking firms are putting them on SELL, so i guess thats wats leading it to the down trend.

[reece55]

A lot of broking firms are putting them on SELL, so i guess thats wats leading it to the down trend.

I'm liking VBA for a nice short position here...

Chart wise, we have a nice little downtrend established, we've had a nice rally, but it's clear we have lower lows and higher highs. We are flirting with that 200d MA, and all other indicators point downwards.

From a macroeconomic view point, we have two significant factors - the price of oil increasing (and I can only see it going upwards from here) and the inevitable spate of price wars between it, Jetstar and Tiger. My view has always been that more than 2 airlines in Australia just doesn't work because the buggers just kill themselves with price cutting until they drop dead - I am sure everyone remembers Ansett's collapse. I'm not saying for a second that is Virgin Blue, but certainly the strain is beginning to show it's toll on the VBA chart...

Cheers

[barnz2k]

hey reece, sorry but I dont understand..
You seem to think in general it can only get tougher for them, and is already going down - so how can it be a good short position?

[Kruegs]

Hi there,
I have been watching VBA for the last few weeks, and have actually been surprised as to how well the price has held up, despite the Jetstar/Tiger price wars, price of fuel etc. TI would not have thought the news of AUS-US flights being a possibility in the future would not have had an immediate effect on the share price, considering (as quoted by Virgin) it would take a period of time to get the service running profitably.
Would it be fair to say that the share price is looking to break it's downward trend, or is it still on its continued downtrend, and the recent price pickup is just a result of recent good news regarding the prospects of AUS-US air services?

Regards,
Kruegs

[barnz2k]

I was hoping the news would have had a greater effect actually - but Originally I thought the final plan was going to be running sooner..

[barnz2k]

A lot of broking firms are putting them on SELL, so i guess thats wats leading it to the down trend.

Curious - how do you see what broking firms are setting their recommendations at? Do you have to be signed up to a research co?

[barnz2k]

Ann of big profit increase, still plans for V Australia, and new plans for NZ market.. But still no love for VBA?
I know the market isnt really running on fundamentals right now, but even the 2% boost it had the other day was knocked back agaian..

[vishalt]

I reckon VBA looks ripe for takeoff (excuse the pun).

Strong profit, stable & well-managed company, I just got a buy signal on my software. I'm longing with stops at 1.78.

[barnz2k]

I've been waiting a while on VBA but it just hasnt been going anywhere.
Ann of increased profit barely made a sound. as so with other recent positives.
Been a slow down hill since I bought in.

What makes you think ready now?

[vishalt]

It's making a few higher highs and I got a buy signal on the indicator I made (it's generally pretty accurate), I think it has more upside than downside.

[barnz2k]

Any thoughts?
I guess it depends on how they sell their stake, if its an individual buying it, bits and pieces, or selling the shares back to virgin??

From SMH: ARTICLE (http://www.smh.com.au/news/business/toll-set-to-sell-virgin-blue/2007/09/24/1190486225745.html)

"Toll Set to Sell Virgin Blue"


VIRGIN BLUE looks set for its fifth major change of ownership in five years, after its controlling shareholder, Toll Holdings, provided its strongest hint that it is preparing to offload its 62 per cent stake in the airline......

[barnz2k]

I dont get it, there is always good news about VBA but it just never catches on. Named best low-cost carrier for 2008, and its the worlds 3rd most profitable airline. So why no love for vba?

http://www.etravelblackboardasia.com/article.asp?id=51111&nav=51

http://www.businessday.com.au/news/company/VBA

[traderboy]

First time poster so be nice :)

V Australia is due to launch their long haul USA flights in the next 1-2 weeks, surely this has to help the share price ?

[barnz2k]

next 2 weeks? I thought it wasn't till much later in the year. They are still discussing the open-air agreement with the US no?

[barnz2k]

hoooollly crap. down 22% yesterday.
OUCH.

Guess there were people in there simply hoping for the TOLL sell to go through, now theyve canned that - they jumped. Tanking the share price.

Not even worth selling out now??
Scared to think what I bought in at.

[malachii]

Airlines are never a good investment - if you could make money owning an airline Packer, Buffett (or insert any seriously wealthy person's name) would own a couple of them. Even Branson doesn't own them for long - he just sets them up with minimal capital (I think he put 6mil into VB) pulls his money and profit out asap and then holds a small shareholding.

Even Qantas - one of the most successful airlines in the world - floated in 1995 for $1.90 and is worth $3.68 today. 13 years later and it still hasn't even doubled. Sure it has paid dividends but even still!!!!!!!

The last 5 years have been the best years in aviation for decades. We are about to see a fairly tough 5 years (at least) coming up now. Fuel is incredibly expensive, landing fees are going through the roof, access to airports is being reduced, noise restrictions are on the increase, there is a huge skilled pilot shortage worldwide (this hasn't happened since the 60s), carbon trading/penalties are soon to come into effect, etc - I could go on but you get the picture.

For most of this year we have seen at least one airline declare bankruptcy/go into chapter 11/disappear into oblivion every week - Aloha went belly up this week, Oasis last week. These may not be big names in OZ but overseas they are airlines not much smaller than VB and in some case larger.

Now VB are about to start crossing the pond to the US. This is in direct competition with Q, Air NZ and United. Any one who thinks this wont be a dirty fight is dreaming. Sure, it will be a great song and dance and you might be able to pick up some cheap airfares but at the end of the day - do you really think the big boys are going to let VB (believe it or not they are actually not a huge airline in the grand scheme of things) take alot of profit from them.

My advice - stay away from airlines - all of them. As the saying goes - the only way to make a small fortune in aviation is to start off with a large fortune!!

PS - I need to declare - I work in the industry (for Q) in the flying (pilot) side and I also own shares in Q - only because it is part of my bonus and they wont let me sell them for 5 years!

PPS - Before someone jumps on me - I am NOT saying VB will go belly up - just that is a bad investment in a bad industry during a bad time - in my opinion.

[barnz2k]

good points. not sure why I held on to them so long, id been thinking about selling them for a while. now its dropped so far though selling would realize a bad loss :( but maybe worth it and putting the cash into a better forming stock..

[barnz2k]

there goes another 6.5%

from bloomberg (http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=asARJq9NVAr0&refer=australia)


June 2 (Bloomberg) -- Virgin Blue Holdings Ltd., Australia's second-biggest airline, fell to a record low in Sydney trading after UBS AG forecast the carrier will have a loss in fiscal 2009 as jet-fuel costs surge.

UBS estimates a loss of A$40 million ($38.2 million) for Virgin Blue in the year to June 30, 2009, compared with a previous target of a A$60 million profit, analysts Simon Mitchell and Ramoun Lazar said today in a report. Virgin Blue, based in Brisbane, slumped 6.5 percent.

Is it even worth selling a stock when its tanked 80% :confused: :banghead:

[barnz2k]

nobody else really seems to follow VBA (smart) but Im a bit confused today.
It went from previous close of .60 up to .67 then back to its open of .63. Im guessing it was a bounce off the bottom low,
But right at time of closing, they announced if they dont increase fairs, VBA will go bust. So im wondering if this will trigger sell off tomorrow, or interest as they will increase fairs and its at all time low.

[malachii]

Barnz2k,

As you previously guessed with my previous post - I'm not a fan of investing in aviation. I cant see VB going broke (although it is a real possibility - we seemed to see more going broke/cutting back/going into chap 11 all the time), but I can see major cut backs. The aircraft they operate while being efficient are not designed with a $120+ per barrel oil price in mind. We saw Q last week grounding aircraft and canceling orders as well as reducing flights on the older aircraft. They are preparing for the worst and are due to make a further announcement next week about reducing flying internationally. Some of the biggest airlines in the world have made reference to cutbacks and lowering profit estimates. I think it was BA who said last week that the expect the increase in oil to completely wipe out this years profit!

The delay in delivery of more efficient aircraft (A380 and B787) is only making this whole thing worse.

However - the world will never stop flying. It has got to a stage where aviation has become so much of our everyday life/business that we cannot do without it. We may reduce the flying but we will never completely stop. This will mean survival of the fittest. Companies like Q and Virgin Blue (if they announce cutbacks) will survive so long as they are smart and dont try to push on regardless. They will just become smaller and less profitable. Not what you want to hear as a shareholder.

The other point I'd like to make is that oil is only one (admittedly a major one) of some of the huge challenges facing aviation in the short to medium term (In my more pessimistic moments I would also include long term!). There are major union issues, landing fees, delayed deliveries, noise restrictions, greenhouse gas, legislation, maintenance and skill issues to be faced and this is only scratching the surface. If you really want to know about more issues sit down with anyone employed in the industry over a beer and let them tell you their sob story - and an individual will only recognize maybe 5% of the issues that we face!! Read some of Dixon's dire warnings and you'll get some idea. Not all of what he says is just to try and settle down the unions - he's actually pretty spot on with a lot of his assessments!

I go back to my original statements in my previous post - the only way to make a small fortune in aviation is start with a large fortune and if there was money in aviation, Packer (and every other wealthy tycoon) would own at least 2!!

malachii

PS see declaration of interest in previous post!!

[barnz2k]

Thanks for the reply Malachii

I basically agree with everything you say.

I just wonder now what kind of affect this news will have on the price tomorrow. It may go even further down, but sitting at 75% loss and at the bottom end of 52week closing, it seems almost pointless to sell.

[Smurf1976]

Barnz2k,
However - the world will never stop flying. It has got to a stage where aviation has become so much of our everyday life/business that we cannot do without it. We may reduce the flying but we will never completely stop.
At some point the oil will be gone completely. Then we'll have no choice but to stop flying unless someone has come up with a viable electric or hydrogen aircraft by that time - and even the hydrogen optimists admit aviation is a massive hurdle.

Shorter term, we're faced with outright consumption falls for oil at some point once production peaks (if it hasn't already). So we'll certainly see less flying and that means the industry is stuck with over capacity for at least the next couple of decades (unless they simply write off a lot of fairly new aircraft).

Personally, I'm keen to get any long distance trips done before real trouble hits. By "long distance" I mean (for someone living in Tas) anywhere further than Sydney or Melbourne.

[Tysonboss1]

the only way to make a small fortune in aviation is start with a large fortune !!

I think richard branson was quoted as saying to become a millionaire, start by being a billionaire investing in airlines,... lol

[Tysonboss1]

Thanks for the reply Malachii

I basically agree with everything you say.

I just wonder now what kind of affect this news will have on the price tomorrow. It may go even further down, but sitting at 75% loss and at the bottom end of 52week closing, it seems almost pointless to sell.

Don't beat yourself up to much,... just take all the lessons you can from the experiance,

I know the feeling of having one of your investments tank is absoultly awful, but you just have to march on.

[malachii]

So we'll certainly see less flying and that means the industry is stuck with over capacity for at least the next couple of decades (unless they simply write off a lot of fairly new aircraft).

Most airlines these days do not own aircraft. I'm sure there are some but none that I can think of at the moment. In fact aircraft are not "owned" by any one company. Most often one company owns the hull, someone owns one engine, someone else owns the other engine, different lease companies own each wheel bogie etc. So it is not as big a deal as some may think for an airline to say "ground the lot" - we usually pay power by the hour meaning we only pay for the time we fly.

I'm also of the belief (unpopular as it may be) that oil will always be available at a certain price - I don't think aviation will stop - I just think it will shrink or maybe not be in the current "large scale" form.

malachii

[Smurf1976]

I'm also of the belief (unpopular as it may be) that oil will always be available at a certain price - I don't think aviation will stop - I just think it will shrink or maybe not be in the current "large scale" form.

I'd agree that oil will always be available at a certain price. But I'd expect it to be somewhat like gold is - always available but the price is so high it precludes large scale use for anything.

I do think we'll still have aviation too. But I doubt we'll see people flying from Sydney to Melbourne to watch a football game, at least not unless they're truly wealthy.

To my understanding, the airline industry has collectively (all airlines worldwide) not been profitable thus far. Some airlines are profitable, but as a whole it works only due to government bailouts. Now, if airlines don't work financially with cheap oil at $20 then they're going to be in serious trouble at $125 per barrel...

[malachii]

Totally agree with Smurf

Q is one of 3 airlines in the world that has been profitable for the last 5 years!! That leaves a lot making a loss!!! The other 2 are backed by governments so the books are a little iffy!

malachii

[barnz2k]

11% increase after TOLL offloads its shares

http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/4b449ea0-5205-11dd-a97c-000077b07658.html


Toll, an Australian transport and logistics company, said it would distribute 98.3 per cent of its stake to shareholders. It will give shareholders one Virgin Blue share for each Toll share.

[robots]

hello,

got letter from tollie,

what are people looking at doing or views on this special dividend, sell on day, buying more etc

thankyou
robots

[barnz2k]

hey robot
im O/S now, so no idea bout this letter. ill have to see if I can find it or if you can let me know what the deal is :)

[Nicks]

You get 1 VBA share for each share you have in TOL. Im not sure yet, but I think im gonna keep em, I think because the SP is pretty reflective of the value in the company and also because it will add to the diversification of my portfolio.

[robots]

You get 1 VBA share for each share you have in TOL. Im not sure yet, but I think im gonna keep em, I think because the SP is pretty reflective of the value in the company and also because it will add to the diversification of my portfolio.

hello,

yes good points nicks, "hopefully" the price of fuel continues its slide and may give VBA some help,

thankyou
robots

[Tysonboss1]

I am going to keep mine atleast till the price improves, I think that once these shares are given out there may be a rush for the door so I don't think there will be much strength at first, I will probally hold them collect a few dividends and look at selling in 18 months or so.

[gxshen]

why keep on dropping? I had thought it would stop yesterday, but today dropped again. I think it has been oversold (now trading volume becomes much smaller than previous two days). The real value of the company is significantly under-estimated based on the current price. $50 cents are a strong support! Expect to see SP rise in the next few days.

[blogs]

Wow hope you guys are in at the mo-look at the buy side-huge!! building nicely, 2:1 and sellers thining out. With such huge volumes this is just waiting to break out of the 50-60 band, I reckon all she needs is a nudge over 60 and she will be off!! Heres hoping to another drop in oil tonight :) Good luck Monday

[blogs]

Looking good-58.5!! C'mon break that 60 barrier!!! Can today be the day??:cool:...................................

[Greg71]

I'm watching too, but see the 2m on the sell side at .60?

Uhmmm...would that be considered resistance? :)

[blogs]

lol could be, but then again earlier in the day a few single order million share trades went through, so who knows...but yes it is putting a 'cap' on things ;)

[Hendrik]

lol could be, but then again earlier in the day a few single order million share trades went through, so who knows...but yes it is putting a 'cap' on things ;)

Hi blogs, good to see your spreading the virgin love :)

on topic: i was expecting VBA to cycle downwards today to around 53/54 but the asx's rally today helped it touch 60, which i cant see being broken for at least another week and thats if oil stays where it is..

some pundits reckon oil will steady out around 100 and others reckon it will fall further.. time will tell i guess.

[blogs]

I think read somewhere (mighthave even been here?) that for ever $1 dollar the oil price goes down VBA's profit increases by around $23million? I'll have a squiz...

So where to tomorrow? Im liking it-the 60 barrier is gradually being removed. BTW a fair few chomps went through at 60 today mate-check the course of sales :)

[Greg71]

Yes, I did see that, it went down to about 1.5 mill. Might be summoning up the strength to burst through.

[Hendrik]

I think read somewhere (mighthave even been here?) that for ever $1 dollar the oil price goes down VBA's profit increases by around $23million? I'll have a squiz...

So where to tomorrow? Im liking it-the 60 barrier is gradually being removed. BTW a fair few chomps went through at 60 today mate-check the course of sales :)
Yeah i read that too blogs i think it was on shares..

so it did trade on 60 today? i saw the high but i havent had a chance to check COS, i just presumed it was pre-market trading.

will follow it closely this week :)

[blogs]

Yep-it had a fair ole nibble at the 60 barrier-all up 2,614,575 were traded at 60

50% of all shares traded for the day were between 58 and 59 and 20% between 59 and 60!!! So the end of day action doesnt at all reflect the true picture..

[Hendrik]

the volume position of the majority of trading has stepped up a notch bloggs like you said, but im determined to wait for the downward trend back to low 50s this week.

i think the current ask price would be a solid buy to be honest but all it takes is a bearish rise is oil price and that is counterproductive to getting past the 60 barrier.

[blogs]

Great news-gota love the typical Virgin 'bugger you I'll do it anyway' attitude :)

http://www.news.com.au/heraldsun/story/0,21985,24314750-664,00.html

"Virgin Australia beats ticketing red tape"

The system allows it to sell tickets online for its new international airline V Australia

The International Air Transport Association refused to offer V Australia tickets through its international Billing and Settlement Plan until the new airline had received its Air Operator's Certificate.

And V Australia cannot receive its AOC until it takes delivery of its delayed B777-300ER aircraft.

V Australia has developed a payment system called the V Australia settlement plan in partnership with travel payment specialists eNett International.

Virgin Blue chief executive Brett Godfrey said the airline and eNett had developed a simple solution for agents to sell V Australia tickets that had streamlined settlement and reconciliation, through a dedicated web portal.

Mr Godfrey said V Australia had intended initially to work through IATA's BSP.

"However, as access was not available in the timeframe required, we preferred to develop an independent solution," he said.

This had left V Australia with the internet as the only way of selling its tickets.

[blogs]

the volume position of the majority of trading has stepped up a notch bloggs like you said, but im determined to wait for the downward trend back to low 50s this week.

i think the current ask price would be a solid buy to be honest but all it takes is a bearish rise is oil price and that is counterproductive to getting past the 60 barrier.

oil was only up by 16 cents or so a barrel last night so, so far so good. Im very tempted to buy some more on open, only 1.3 mill up to 60, and with 20 mill odd traded a day you just never know, more and more people are holding in the high 50's and not looking to sell for a loss....lol then again

[Hendrik]

oil was only up by 16 cents or so a barrel last night so, so far so good. Im very tempted to buy some more on open, only 1.3 mill up to 60, and with 20 mill odd traded a day you just never know, more and more people are holding in the high 50's and not looking to sell for a loss....lol then again

I think your right bloggs, my prediction of a cycle seems to have deminished..

MACD is in the right position for rally i think... i might jump in at close today :)

[barnz2k]

I wish I could share the enthusiasm but way off where i bought in :banghead:
But even a slow and steady crawl back would keep me slightly happy ;)

[blogs]

barnz-in my newbie opinion there is accumulation going on, a clear cap is has been put on 60, with million lots put up then pulled. MACD and RSI is looking the goods, plenty of upside from here, I think from memory just the assets alone are worth 50 cents a share..? Aslo oil is still dropping, down again last night to under $100 a barrel. Looking good!!

[Hendrik]

Market is raining on our enthusiam blogs..

support at 50, 52 and 54 respectively.. ive got a buy order in there somewhere, but im not telling! :p:

[blogs]

You're not wrong mate!! Sheesh what a open-still havent found a stock in the green lol If she can hold today and not go down 5% it will say a lot about the strength of this stock!!! Red every where!!!

Why dont you put in three orders ;) Think I might put one in at 52 just in case :)

[blogs]

Hey the 2 mill has been pulled from 60 lol!!!! Only 748k available there now!!! Buyers are holding strong, got a very good feeling bout this one-when every stock I look at is down at least 5% and this is holding I think that instills a lot of confidence!!!

[Hendrik]

Hey blogs the chart's cycles have been making higher lows since it bottomed out on the 22nd of August.

MACD in a good position too so im looking for a big jump tomorrow :)

[blogs]

I reckon mate :) I was seriosuly set for at least a 5% hit today, the fact it closed pretty much on open show's remarkable resiliance given the broader market today. As Big Kev (bless his soul..) would say IM EXCITED!!! :cool:

[Hendrik]

Energy stocks higher overnight in the US so it looks like VBA is entering the low 50s cycle again, i nearly pulled my buy order yesterday from the queue. lucky i didnt

[blogs]

Hendrick, given the OPEC announcement I would have expected oil to go up but it actually went down-it is still in a downtrend. Today/this week is short term negative sentiment due Dow and OPEC announcement, I call today a raging buy IMHO!!! Looking forward to a sensational week next week once the rubbish is cleared out-lots of volume has been removed from the run to and past 60!!:):cool:

[Hendrik]

Ok ill spill, had my order in at 51.5 VERY high up in the queue..

and it gets down to 52 today... grrr!

[blogs]

lol :) I still think given the week we have had, with the markets getting smashed and OPEC, oil AND the falling AUD for this stock to be holding so well really gives me great confidence. Just wish I had more money, but I have that cash ear marked for another stock Im expecting to fall lower-MAK sub $1 soon I reckon ;)

[Hendrik]

Virgin is still high risk because of the ever-changing airlines environment, the question i keep asking myself is if oil has a few bullish days will that be enough to push VBA below support at 50? im had a set trade strategy for the next 4 or 5 days for VBA but i wouldnt want to be holding for any longer than that.

probably just me being pessamistic :sly:

[blogs]

Geez I just dont know how to pick this one-she is showing so much strength!! Lots of big bids above 50, and not much above 50 for sale. Plus oil is still set to decrease by all accounts...Hmmm think its definately a HOLD

Oil prices continue to fall
September 11, 2008
AP


Oil prices closed slightly lower in jittery trading on Wednesday, as the strengthening US dollar and signs of a slowing economy outweighed inventory drops and word that OPEC would cut production.

The Energy Department's Energy Information Administration said that crude inventories fell by 5.9 million barrels last week compared to the previous week, and that gasoline inventories fell by 6.5 million barrels.

The EIA also reported, however, that inventories of distillates - which include heating oil and diesel fuel - fell by a lower-than-anticipated 1.2 million barrels.

Refineries were running at a low 78.3 per cent of their capacity last week, the report said.

"It's being seen as somewhat aberrant because of the storms," said John Kilduff, senior vice president of risk management at MF Global LLC. "But I don't think you can ignore this data."

Light, sweet crude for October delivery fell 68 cents to settle at $US102.58 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, after initially jumping on the EIA's report. It was crude's lowest close since April 1. The contract fell by more than $US3 a barrel in the previous session.

The supply readings came after OPEC said it would reduce output by 520,000 barrels a day.

The Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries, however, decided not to take the more dramatic step of slashing production targets. The decision was viewed as a compromise meant to avoid a backlash from the biggest petroleum consuming nations while halting the rapid decline in oil prices.

A number of analysts said they did not expect OPEC's output decision to spark a sustained rally in oil prices, as investors remain concerned over slowing economic growth in the US, Europe and Japan.

"All they're saying is, 'We've been cheating for the past year.' .... I don't think the market's going to take it that seriously," analyst and trader Stephen Schork said by phone from Vienna. "I think the general mood is we are heading lower."

Antoine Halff, an energy analyst with Newedge USA, said OPEC's move could "be the most bearish signal to date in the oil market rout."

"The ministers appear genuinely concerned that the bottom is falling out of global demand and that once depleted stocks are rebounding with a vengeance," Halff said in a note. "Their panic is a testament to how soft the market has become. It is likely to grow even softer."

"You just can't fight the weight of the market right now," said Darin Newsom, senior analyst at DTN in Omaha, Nebraska. "I still think we're going to drop below $US100."

Accumulating evidence that demand for crude is falling away in developed nations has created an exodus from the oil markets. The EIA's report Wednesday showed that demand for gasoline, distillate fuel and jet fuel over the past four weeks a falling from last year's levels.

The US dollar rose against the euro, pound and yen, encouraging investors who used commodities to hedge against a weakening dollar to unwind those bets.

At 2pm EDT (0400 AEST Thursday), Hurricane Ike was about 410km west of Key West, Florida, and was moving toward the northwest at about 21km/h with top sustained winds of around 160km/h. It was expected to cross the Gulf of Mexico, strengthening to a Category Three.

Forecasters said that it could hit on Saturday morning about anywhere along the Texas coast, with the most likely spot close to Corpus Christi, where there are number of refineries.

The US Department of the Interior's Minerals Management Service said that as of Wednesday, about 95.9 per cent of oil production and about 73.1 per cent of natural gas production in the Gulf remained shuttered as Hurricane Ike approaches Texas. Oil and gas operators have had the bulk of their production shut down since they began preparing for Hurricane Gustav nearly two weeks ago.

In other Nymex trading, heating oil futures fell 2.23 cents to settle at $US2.9024 a gallon, while gasoline prices gained about a penny to settle at $US2.6616 a gallon.

Natural gas for October delivery fell 14.2 cents to settle at $US7.393 per 1,000 cubic feet; the EIA is scheduled to release its weekly reading on natural gas in US storage on Thursday.



OPEC cuts output to shore up market
September 11, 2008
AFP


The OPEC oil group has announced a cut of 520,000 barrels per day to its output, citing downside risks to the oil market as prices fell below $US100 for the first time since April.

After a marathon meeting in Vienna, which finished about 3am local time (1100 AEST) on Wednesday, the president said its members had agreed to begin reducing production immediately.

"If you do your own calculations, it is a cut of 520,000 barrels per day," said OPEC president and Algeria's Energy Minister Chakib Khelil, announcing a new OPEC output quota of 28.8 million barrels per day, excluding Indonesia - which officially left OPEC on Wednesday - and Iraq.

The cut, which immediately boosted sliding oil prices, was likely to dismay consumers hoping for bigger falls.

US energy secretary Samuel Bodman had asked for producers to keep oil markets well supplied.

Oil sank below $US100 for the first time in five months in London on Tuesday when Brent North Sea crude for delivery in October dropped to $US99.04 in late European trade.

But prices rebounded in Asian trade. New York's main contract, light sweet crude for October delivery rose by 92 cents to $US104.18 a barrel while Brent North Sea crude rose 65 cents to $US101.07.

Analysts had suggested OPEC would keep its official policy unchanged but would discreetly agree to rein in production by cracking down on output by some members, mainly Saudi Arabia, who are pumping above their quota.

Khelil said he did not expect the OPEC decision to reverse the downward trend of oil prices, which peaked at $US147 a barrel in July.

"My hunch is probably the price still will be going down despite the decision that we made," he said.

"I don't think this will affect the consumers in any way because first of all, there's an oversupply. Everybody agrees on that."

The stakes for OPEC were entirely different from the last time the group met in March when prices had broken through $US100 and were on a steep upwards trajectory.

The gathering this time led to questions about what price level the cartel wanted to protect as the market came down.

Iran, Iraq and Venezuela have identified $US100 as their minimum, while analysts see Saudi Arabia as being comfortable with a figure around $US80 or $US90.

Explaining its decision on Wednesday, OPEC identified a shift in sentiment in the oil market linked to falling economic growth, a strengthening dollar, easing geopolitical tensions and greater supply.

"All the foregoing indicates a shift in market sentiment causing downside risks to the global oil market outlook," it said.

OPEC also announced that Indonesia had formalised its departure from the group after it became a net importer of crude.

"The conference regretfully accepted the wish of Indonesia to suspend its full membership in the organisation," OPEC said in a statement.

Meanwhile, Russian vice premier Igor Sechin reached out to OPEC late on Tuesday, calling for greater cooperation between the cartel and his country, the world's biggest non-OPEC oil producer.

"Cooperation with OPEC is one of the priorities of Russia," he said, according to a statement read out at the opening of a meeting of OPEC's 13 members.

In production terms, the departure of Indonesia was more than compensated for by the arrival of Angola, which produces 1.85 million barrels a day; and Ecuador, which produces 500,000.

A statement from the group said Angola would hold the OPEC presidency for a year from beginning of next year.

The departure and arrivals brings OPEC's membership to 12 nations.

Their next meeting will be held in Oran, Algeria, on December 17.

[Hendrik]

Its definitely an interesting one blogs, then again what part of the market is responding the way you would expect it to?

I pulled my buy order, focusing on some mid caps at the moment, ill keep on discussing it with you although :)

[blogs]

Im all out at 51.5 :( :banghead: Lookin sick, and couldnt risk taking a gamble on a oil rally tonight. Good luck all still holding-still looks promising, 2 million on the bid above 50 cents, yet only about 1.2 mill on the sell below 56.5....

[Hendrik]

Hmm seems i picked that one, fell below support and its looking shaky.. there must have been thousands of high 50s buyers that dumped late in the day.

[Greg71]

Here's a chart. A cent or so to go lower before it breaks support. Today was on higher volume, and looks bearish, but still in it's trading range so it's anybody's guess at the moment.

http://www.salespagesoftware.com/images/vba2.gif

[blogs]

Hmmm now technically this should rally today. Oil is still sliding down and our dollar is up, but as you know-the stock market is a totally irrational beast at the best of times lol..:banghead:

[blogs]

What did I say-up 7% :banghead: Really need to start listening to myself one of these days :( I tell myself its going down but hold, I tell myself its going up and dont buy :eek7:

[Hendrik]

What did I say-up 7% :banghead: Really need to start listening to myself one of these days :( I tell myself its going down but hold, I tell myself its going up and dont buy :eek7:

Dont worry blogs i started tracking VBA 3 weeks ago and made a small error in the first week then learnt from it, follow the range like what greg said and you should be okay.

anyone that bought at close yesty will be happy.

[ands]

Picked up some on Friday at 43.5c. Surely this must be getting undervalued. Market Cap only $463 million. Despite their drop in profit they are still profitable overall. Oil prices have fallen, not to mention the fact 72% of their fuel requirements for FY09 are capped at US$112bbl. Anything I have missed?

[oldblue]

Picked up some on Friday at 43.5c. Surely this must be getting undervalued. Market Cap only $463 million. Despite their drop in profit they are still profitable overall. Oil prices have fallen, not to mention the fact 72% of their fuel requirements for FY09 are capped at US$112bbl. Anything I have missed?

Apart from the fact that airlines are one of the most volatile industries to invest in, volumes are still pretty high, indicating that Toll shareholders are still selling.
If oil drops much further, hedging their fuel at USD112 may prove to be a competitive disadvantage.

;)

[Boggo]

Government departments are killing off aviation faster than any other factor.

Fees and charges are increasing without any justification and the service is inversely proportional to the charges.

When you get public servants trying to run a taxpayer built entity like private company without the ability or basic skills then its no wonder that international airlines see Australian airspace management being on par with some of the worst in the world.

Unknown to the travelling public we currently have a procedure known as "TIBA" in Australia.

"TIBA" stands for "Traffic Information Broadcast by Aircraft" (also sometimes "Traffic Information Broadcast Area"). It is a procedure that is used by pilots flying aircraft through airspace that is not monitored by Air Traffic Control. It occurs in some "third world" nations. Pilots must broadcast their positions on a common radio frequency and arrange their own separation with other pilots. In Australia, TIBA is now occuring almost daily due to a critical shortage of Air Traffic Controllers.

The attached pic is from Airservices site and the link to The Age tells the real story.

http://business.theage.com.au/business/virgin-in-holding-pattern-sends-bill-to-air-traffic-control-20081006-4v4k.html

[dan-o]

At 27c do people think this represents good value?

What is Virgin's balance sheet like at the moment...

[vida]

At 27c do people think this represents good value?

What is Virgin's balance sheet like at the moment...

I picked some up at .27 cents and think it represents great value. However the market sentiment is not recognising that presently, its not good at all in particular toward aviation where business is trending down but could be ok. VBA is still profitable but for how long? That is the question on market mind. Its a great long term holding I think but in short term could be a little risky. the balance sheet is not bad, just check the company's website and do your homework and you will see for yourself.

[oldblue]

I'd be looking hard to see how much of VBA's fuel is hedged at USD112 and what it would cost to unwind this if PoO remains down in the $60/70 range.

Disc: Not holding.

[peter g]

I think the balance sheet is not looking very good at the moment because VBA is funding the set up of V-Australia (the international carrier) which is not yet making any return on investment.

I think it is could be good value but the market is too wild at the momment for me to buy any.

[vida]

I think the balance sheet is not looking very good at the moment because VBA is funding the set up of V-Australia (the international carrier) which is not yet making any return on investment.

I think it is could be good value but the market is too wild at the momment for me to buy any.

yes the market is wild but the mood seems to be in recovery today.. I had planned to buy VBA .27 cents then sell in a few days for .31c/32c. Its worked out I could have sold today at a nice profit but decided to hold.

Whatever the balance sheet it was not bad enough for the SP to have been at .27c - this was way oversold. It has to get better and with credit easing up and oil going down it will improve outlook. At least that is how it seems to me and I will hold now and maybe sell tomorrow if things look shakey or maybe not sell. I am undecided I guess, will wait and see. I feel positive.

[Boggo]

From the SMH...

Rex owners up Virgin stake

* Michael West
* November 3, 2008 - 9:25AM

The Singaporeans behind regional aviator Rex Airlines have quietly bought a strategic stake in Virgin Blue. They are lurking beneath the 5% disclosure threshold and had no comment when contacted by BusinessDay.

Entities associated with Rex have soaked up around 3% of the carrier. Whether Kim Hai Lim and Thian Soo Lee can get their hands on the readies to make a full bid is an issue in itself. Rex's market cap is only $120 million and though its management runs a tight ship - costs are low and government lobbying high - a scrip bid would have little chance of getting off the ground.

The move to soak up a few shares in Virgin is more likely strategic than a prelude to a bid although Virgin's bombed out share price and cash reserves could present a tasty asset strip.

At balance date Virgin had $604 million in cash. It looks cheap versus its current market cap of $360 million - and the reason is cash burn.

Thanks to a raging fuel price in the last half Virgin put its "average days cash reserves at 101" in its annual report.

Jet fuel costs have since fallen though, along with the diving oil price, and now the formidable challenge is the economy. People just don't fly as much in a downturn and recent traffic figures suggest the malaise is starting to bite.

The Virgin stock price - already under pressure from the economy and a "half-pregnant" strategy of venturing out of straight discount airline territory into international and business segments - was decimated by a barrage of selling when Toll Holdings flogged its 63% stake in the carrier to Toll shareholders via an in specie distribution in August.

The three options for the Rex shareholders would be: one, get some cash from somewhere and launch a bid then merge the two operations; two, buy cheaply and make a turn on the investment and, three, pull off a bid, strip out the cash and wind up the jet leases and other assets to make a profit.

Operationally, there is not so much in the way of synergies as a lack of overlap. It could work. Rex flies small regional routes and its fleet of turbo-prop SAABs would fit with Virgin's Embraers (a decent Brazilian jet) and its 737s.

Funding would be the issue. Via its investment arm, Temasek, the Singapore Government already owns Singapore Airlines and has a stake in discount carrier Tiger. It would not covet Virgin so Temasek is unlikely to get involved.

mwest@fairfax.com.au

BusinessDay

[Boggo]

Just wondering if anyone has an opinion on VBA at the moment from a charting/VSA point of view.

A significant (?) change in volume and range today.

I have a price projection of up to 43c based on last run up.

(click to expand)

[sagitar]

In my opinion, VBA is oversold - touched recent lows and looks to be a good buy at present.

Volume has decreased on the downward slide suggesting seller exhaustion, coupled with strong buying support at 25 and 25.5c.

This looks like it could run so will be putting on my watch list until confirmation!

cheers!

[Jonathan111]

In my opinion, VBA is oversold - touched recent lows and looks to be a good buy at present.

Volume has decreased on the downward slide suggesting seller exhaustion, coupled with strong buying support at 25 and 25.5c.

This looks like it could run so will be putting on my watch list until confirmation!

cheers!

It closed at 18.5c yesterday. Whats your call now? Any chance of a takeover/hostile? Who would have the cash? :2twocents

[Viva_Las_Vegas]

It hit 15c today. I too am wondering if it is good value! The international carrier has not been running for long enough to make any impact

[bennoz]

i jumped on board at .17c
they seem to be holding steady lately, throughout all this volitility

This year looks like a writeoff . positive outlooks for next year

[ccasta]

It appears there may be a capital raising announcement on the cards this week. Just wondering what others think about it?

I don't currently hold any VBA shares, so if i bought some today would i likely be eligible when they do announce it? any ideas?

[stocksontheblock]

Ohhh no, what are they up to this time? Is this going to be one of those, just a week ago "we wont/dont need to do a captial raising", and all of a sudden they are?

Any idea's from anyone out there on the lastest VBA tricks?

[skc]

Ohhh no, what are they up to this time? Is this going to be one of those, just a week ago "we wont/dont need to do a captial raising", and all of a sudden they are?

Any idea's from anyone out there on the lastest VBA tricks?

It is a cap raising alright. Doesn't take 2 days to respond to media speculation, does it?

Word is that Richard Branson will not partake...

[Steven12]

anyone received VBA SPP offer letter yet?

thanks......................


Does anyone know if I apply for more than 1-1 share offer, if the application get more than 1-1 entitlement gets rejected, how is the extra money refunded?

[skc]

anyone received VBA SPP offer letter yet?

thanks......................


Does anyone know if I apply for more than 1-1 share offer, if the application get more than 1-1 entitlement gets rejected, how is the extra money refunded?

Previous refunds with other companies have been cheque in the mail for me. But that doesn't mean VBA won't do it differently.

31 Jul was the first day of dispatch... you should hopefully get it in the next couple of days. I have VBA with a custodian so I don't get any letter, however.

[Steven12]

If I decide to partake more than 1-1 share entitlement offer, and if it gets oversubscribed. (say I am entitled to buy 1000 shares but I apply for 3000)

would that mean that I could get rejected for the SPP? if so, do they reject the whole amount all together or reject the amount that over the entitlement, and how is the cash deposited?

Anyone that receives the SPP letter gives us a shout thanx....

[oldblue]

If I decide to partake more than 1-1 share entitlement offer, and if it gets oversubscribed. (say I am entitled to buy 1000 shares but I apply for 3000)

would that mean that I could get rejected for the SPP? if so, do they reject the whole amount all together or reject the amount that over the entitlement, and how is the cash deposited?

Anyone that receives the SPP letter gives us a shout thanx....

Well it's not an SPP but a non renounceable pro rata entitlement offer, one new share for every one held. So there's no scope for applying for more shares than the entitlement. In fact, the issue is underwritten which means that the underwriters will pick up any entitlements that aren't accepted.

Disc: Not holding.

[skc]

Well it's not an SPP but a non renounceable pro rata entitlement offer, one new share for every one held. So there's no scope for applying for more shares than the entitlement. In fact, the issue is underwritten which means that the underwriters will pick up any entitlements that aren't accepted.

Disc: Not holding.

That is only partly true.

The 1-for-1 is guaranteed for you and will not be scaled back.

You can also apply more than your 1-for-1 entitlement. However, if too many holders do so then management will scale back. The scale back may be related to your original holding, or related to the additional amount you've subscribed for...

Underwritten means that the underwriters will pick up any entitlements not undertaken. Say there are 100m VBA shares and 1-for-1 only attracted 50m, and further 20m of additional subscription, then chances are everyone who asked for additional shares will get them, and the underwriter will pick up the final 30m. If 1-for-1 is fully subscribed + some additional, the underwriter will need to pick nothing.

[Steven12]

I see, that's very useful informatiuon, thanks.


I am planning to subscribe $3000 worth and my original holding entitles me only $1000.


Would I be correct in assuming that we have come to the final leg of market capital raising (90bn since GFC) on the australian market and oversubscription is less likely now?


Also if I decide to sell my current holdings now, and still apply for the entitlement offer, would I still get it? Because I anticipate some selling pressure on VBA stocks after retail alloted shares are allowed to trade on the market.

[skc]

Would I be correct in assuming that we have come to the final leg of market capital raising (90bn since GFC) on the australian market and oversubscription is less likely now?

Can't say I see a relationship between final leg of cap raising and degree of oversubscription. It has more to with the amount of discount available and the current market climate imo. VBA are priced at a steep discount.



Also if I decide to sell my current holdings now, and still apply for the entitlement offer, would I still get it? Because I anticipate some selling pressure on VBA stocks after retail alloted shares are allowed to trade on the market.

I would think you are still eligible but check with ur broker.

[asel]

You can sell now if you need to raise funds for the application. $15000 has generally been the upper limit for subscription but I'm not sure what limit VBA has imposed. If this offer is oversubscribed, I would think it will mainly be those looking for short term profits. I don't think the underlying business is doing too well at the moment.

[drsmith]

I caught a VB flight from Adelaide to Perth yesterday afternoon.

I would estimate that about half the seats were empty.

[l-y-s]

Mr Branson wont let the share price down to 0.20 i dont think so in the next 3 months. But who knows.

[MugPunter]

OK, so VBA closed at 38c today, with 20% gain for the day. Theories on why it went up so much? Full participation in SPP a no brainer at this price, yes? Am I missing something?

[traderboy]

I have been sitting on this stock for months, waiting and waiting for a rise...

As to why the rise, well the stock is VERY undervalued in my opinion!

The domestic network is very solid, it is the new international part of their business which is bleeding cash badly.

This was expected and loads are getting better on the international flights.

They also announced today that V Australia want to take over some of the Fiji flights from Pacific Blue.

This gives them the chance to use a plane which sits around in Sydney all day and maximum the revenue from it.

It also enables a MUCH better international experience than the domestic fleet provides.

1. They can sell then sell premium economy on flights to Fiji
2. They can sell business class seats - Not many will sell but currently the business class offering on Air Pacific is VERY poor.
3. Utilizing a plane which sits around all day doing nothing
4. Introduces people to the REAL V Australia experience, not just a domestic type plane.

I see a good future for Virgin Blue, I am tempted to buy up a bit more but will wait a few days and see what happens firsts.


NB: This is MY PERSONAL opinion only, don't buy anything on what I say. Do your own research!

[MugPunter]

Anyone been allocated their VBA spp shares yet? Hasn't come up on CommSec for me yet. What was the degree of scaleback?

[Spode]

I understand we will only see them on Wednesday? I'm still trying to decide if I keep them or not. But I am interested in seeing how many I actually get. Do we know there was actually a scale back?

[Warren Greenspan]

Retail entitlement offer settlement date..............Monday Sep 7

Issue of new shares...................Tuesday Sep 8

Allotment of new shares....................Wednesday Sep 9

Normal trading of new shares on ASX........Wednesday Sep 9


I read somewhere, can't remember where, that it was over subscribed and there is a scale back but it did not say by how much.

I was entitled to just 150 shares and applied for 75,000 so if everyone was as greedy as me it will be a fair sized scale back.

PS just read this from asx site......

The retail offer was fully underwritten and will raise A$98.3 million. Due to overwhelming
demand, VBA will scale back applications for Additional New Shares made by existing
retail shareholders in excess of their entitlements, to ensure fairness among all
shareholders. Details of the scale back policy will be advised to shareholders at or about
the time of allotment of New Shares under the Retail Entitlement Offer. Following the
scale back, the Retail Entitlement Offer will be fully subscribed and there will be no
shortfall.

Warren

[plankton]

I was greedy Entitled to 85 requested 50,000!

Does anyone know how they usually return unused moneys to you and how soon after the new allotment is issued it happens? Been lucky enough not to have been involved in one scaled back yet.

My SPP fund needs replenishing for 2 more coming up.

[stocksontheblock]

I was greedy Entitled to 85 requested 50,000!

Does anyone know how they usually return unused moneys to you and how soon after the new allotment is issued it happens? Been lucky enough not to have been involved in one scaled back yet.

My SPP fund needs replenishing for 2 more coming up.

You should see a cheque in about 2 weeks, maybe a little quicker, yet wouldnt count on it, they very very really DP back to your account.

[Junior]

Well this is lame.


Under the Retail Entitlement Offer, which was oversubscribed, Eligible Retail Shareholders were able to take up their Entitlement and to apply for Additional New Shares. To ensure fairness among all shareholders, where Eligible Retail Shareholders made applications for Additional New Shares in excess of their Entitlement, a scale back has been applied. Applications for Additional New Shares have been scaled back to a maximum of 0.824 times the shareholder’s original Entitlement under the Retail Entitlement Offer.

Applications for Additional New Shares less than this limit will be allotted in full, as will applications from Eligible Retail Shareholders for their original Entitlement.

[stocksontheblock]

Well this is lame.

Yep! What a joke, they auction off more to institutional investor's and the retail investor gets .824 ... I would rather just have my money back, rather than the handful of shares. :mad:

[Spode]

Do we get interest on the money or do they get a few weeks interest thanks to us being greedy?

Nothing in my commsec account yet but it's now so little it's not worth it.

Is it worth topping up more shares anyway? People have to start flying one day.

[stocksontheblock]

Do we get interest on the money or do they get a few weeks interest thanks to us being greedy?

Nothing in my commsec account yet but it's now so little it's not worth it.

Is it worth topping up more shares anyway? People have to start flying one day.

Ohhh god no, no interest, and there aren't any fee's, there's the trade-off.

What a wonderful sunny day (sorry need 100 words to answer)

[Steven12]

has anyone received their refund yet? does anyone know how long it usually takes?


...........................

[Garpal Gumnut]

As long as VBA has breathless blonde hostesses they will stay on the ASX.

Their business model of having attractive cabin staff is a winner.

Have you ever travelled with an American airline. Some of the hosties should be in wheelchairs.

gg

[Steven12]

does anyone know if you apply for the SPP through BPAY, if you get your refund back through bank deposit or bank cheque?

[stocksontheblock]

does anyone know if you apply for the SPP through BPAY, if you get your refund back through bank deposit or bank cheque?

Posted earlier (some text to make 100 char's. Mary had a little lamb, its ... ohhh this is so pointless)


You should see a cheque in about 2 weeks, maybe a little quicker, yet wouldnt count on it, they very very really DP back to your account.

[plankton]

From a letter I recieved today ...

"If a scale back was applied to your subscription for additional shares, a refund cheque for the scaled back portion of your application will be posted to your registered address on or about the 14th September 2009."

Seeing I didn't get the undated letter till the 15th I'm not holding my breath...

[TimPot]

Thanks for that. I just found my refund cheque in a pile of mail.

Was wondering why I hadn't seen the money credited into my bank account.

And I think I can make money in the stockmarket!???!

Hmmmn

[wbosher]

Looks like VBA has broken out of an ascending triangle, closed at 59 cents today. Hopefully it's all up and up from here. :D

[skip9]

0.57c

Been lots of reports and analysts reporting about VBA. Obviously with the recovering economy more people are willing to spend money on air fares and this will only improve.

Can it trek its way back up above $2.00 and maybe push on long term?

[cornnfedd]

Lets hope they can improve their service levels..

I am a weekly (yes weekly) flyer of Virgin Blue, great flight last night except:

1. Drop down tray was broken.
2. My seat arms were broken, bent and dented in
3. 'Live to Air' didnt work - they announced whole plane will get a refund
4. My light kept flashing on and off the whole trip

It just made me think - i hope they arent maintaining the engines the same way they are maintaining the seats etc... :banghead:

Back onto topic though- I have been thinking about getting some VB for awhile, what are other people thoughts? im not big on airlines in general though.

[Schmickle]

Personally i think VBA looks well placed to head back into the $2's in the medium term (just IMHO). I bought back in this week @ $0.630 so they bloody well better ;)

The new CEO appointment is a step in the right direction. I'm confident Borghetti will take the business from what is essentially a start-up to a more robust and mature market position especially within the business travel sector. I'd say he has a bee in his bonnet too since being passed over for the top job @ Qantas which will make this all the more interesting to watch. V-Australia looks set to finish H2 much more strongly too!

This is just my :2twocents so as always DYOR :)

[malachii]

I find Borghetti an interesting choice for CEO. I was with Q when he was in management and he has a much different style than the ethos that surrounds Virgin. I'm not convinced that he wont try and change Virgin into a "mini" Q. I think this would be a big mistake because while I actually dont like Virgin - I think their point of difference is their only strong point.

I have worked in the aviation industry for over 20 years and can personally attest to how difficult an industry it is - especially when you are competing with a bohemeth like Q. Yes - the size and "stuffyness" of Q does work to their disadvantage but they have economy of scale. They are as close to unfailable as you can get as the government of the day will always rescue and protect them. You only have to see what both Labour and Liberal did for Q when Ansett fell over, the protection of the US route and many other things that we could discuss. Minister Anderson who was the Minister for Aviation during the Howard era was commonly known as the Minister for Qantas.

I'm not saying this to make it sound like VBA is going down the toilet - I'm just very wary of the industry they work in, the competition they have and now I'm a little "suspicious" of their new CEO, at least until he proves that he can work within the Virgin culture and not try to Qantasise it.

malachii

PS I hold no shares in VBA but I do hold some in QAN - because they paid me my bonuses in shares and wont let me sell them for another 4 years.

[Schmickle]

I find Borghetti an interesting choice for CEO. I was with Q when he was in management and he has a much different style than the ethos that surrounds Virgin. I'm not convinced that he wont try and change Virgin into a "mini" Q. I think this would be a big mistake because while I actually dont like Virgin - I think their point of difference is their only strong point.

I have worked in the aviation industry for over 20 years and can personally attest to how difficult an industry it is - especially when you are competing with a bohemeth like Q. Yes - the size and "stuffyness" of Q does work to their disadvantage but they have economy of scale. They are as close to unfailable as you can get as the government of the day will always rescue and protect them. You only have to see what both Labour and Liberal did for Q when Ansett fell over, the protection of the US route and many other things that we could discuss. Minister Anderson who was the Minister for Aviation during the Howard era was commonly known as the Minister for Qantas.

I'm not saying this to make it sound like VBA is going down the toilet - I'm just very wary of the industry they work in, the competition they have and now I'm a little "suspicious" of their new CEO, at least until he proves that he can work within the Virgin culture and not try to Qantasise it.

malachii

PS I hold no shares in VBA but I do hold some in QAN - because they paid me my bonuses in shares and wont let me sell them for another 4 years.

Yep you raise some great points. Borghetti is definately a somewhat left field choice for Virgin but that's actually why i'm heartened by his appointment. It isn't what you would call a predictable placement but is certainly very strategic. The risk to Virgin as you point out is if Borghetti tries to turn it into a mini Q however he'd be quickly cut off at the pass by the board before even getting close as their brand image is protected extremely tightly. His brief will be to tackle Qantas where it hurts IMHO.

Re the government rescuing and protecting Q you are quite right, the government would not let Qantas sink. However I'm not sure how they will be able to fully protect Q from relinquishing share of wallet in the business travel market. If it ever came to the point of Q being in dire straights the best they could hope for is that the government props them up whilst they try to counter-attack. Virgin took on British Airways with success and their (Virgin's) brand image is even more at home in AUS than the UK if you ask me.

At the end of the day the punters will vote with their feet but my personal view is that Qantas has lost a lot, if not all, of that old school superior carrier feel it used to have. I fly very regularly and select Virgin domestically wherever possible as i find the customer facing staff 10 times more friendly, attentive and genuine. The planes are the planes but for me the people make the difference. (No i don't work for Virgin :D)

[tayser]

I actually flew on V Australia MEL-LAX-MEL in the past three weeks. Loads werent that great (60% each way) however in saying that it is the slowest month to travel to the USA and they are only flying the route 2x weekly.

As soon as the JV with Delta gets approved by Obamarama they'll hopefully fill up the planes more and start flying more frequencies to attract more of the Melbourne business.

Delta are probably the best US domestic partner Virgin could have really - I just did a lot of flights on American Airlines and quite frankly they are an embarrassment to the Oneworld alliance - very unfortunate for Qantas.

[Smurf1976]

im not big on airlines in general though.
I remember hearing someone note that the aviation industry as a whole has not been profitable from day one. That is, the losses of all airlines globally exceed the profits of those few who actually have made a profit. So it does seem a rather tough business to be in.

Let's face it, if Virgin or Qantas went broke then I think most people could imagine that as being at least possible, even if Qantas would likely end up with a taxpayer bail out. But I doubt that many would consider it likely that Woolworths, Wesfarmers (Coles), Caltex, David Jones, AGL, BHP or other large "household name" companies would end up actually broke anytime soon. Worst case they might make a loss during a bad recession or if some unexpected disaster occurs, then they'll turn around fairly quickly. In contrast, airlines in general do seem to run a real risk of complete financial failure.

I don't hold any airline stock at present.

[malachii]

Re the government rescuing and protecting Q you are quite right, the government would not let Qantas sink. However I'm not sure how they will be able to fully protect Q from relinquishing share of wallet in the business travel market. If it ever came to the point of Q being in dire straights the best they could hope for is that the government props them up whilst they try to counter-attack. Virgin took on British Airways with success and their (Virgin's) brand image is even more at home in AUS than the UK if you ask me.

At the end of the day the punters will vote with their feet but my personal view is that Qantas has lost a lot, if not all, of that old school superior carrier feel it used to have. I fly very regularly and select Virgin domestically wherever possible as i find the customer facing staff 10 times more friendly, attentive and genuine. The planes are the planes but for me the people make the difference. (No i don't work for Virgin :D)

I agree that no-one will stop VBA from attacking Q in the business market. The one thing that most people lose focus on is that they cannot compete properly with Q as they dont have the aircraft and infrastructure. On the main trunk routes (MEL SYD BNE PER) Q can and do run aircraft every 15 minutes during peak times. This gives businessmen/women so much flexibility and as the saying goes - time is money. If I can get out of a meeting an hour early and catch an earlier flight or do some extra work and grab a later flight this saves big dollars. Where as if I have to wait for the next VBA flight which is an hour or more later.........

Please note I am not making any comments about On Time Departures although if you look at the official stats - they are pretty neck and neck - (if you work in the industry though you will understand that these numbers are useless except for marketing purposes as they are rigged and abused far beyond the general publics understanding - they bear NO resemblence to the real world - the tricks both sides use to rig these number is astounding!).

Staff moral and customer service is another area all together and one I am reluctant to comment on as I am an ex Q staff member.

I was actually pleased they went left field and chose Borghetti, he knows the Australian and International industry as well as anyone and knows his direct competitor better than most - however I still hold my previously commented reservations until he proves that he does not want to turn it into a "mini Q".

malachii

[Smurf1976]

The one thing that most people lose focus on is that they cannot compete properly with Q as they dont have the aircraft and infrastructure. On the main trunk routes (MEL SYD BNE PER) Q can and do run aircraft every 15 minutes during peak times.
Wouldn't that just be a matter of scale and to some extent a "chicken and egg" problem?

If Virgin had more business passengers they they would run more planes more often.

If Virgin ran more planes more often then they would have more business passengers.

[Schmickle]

Wouldn't that just be a matter of scale and to some extent a "chicken and egg" problem?

If Virgin had more business passengers they they would run more planes more often.

If Virgin ran more planes more often then they would have more business passengers.

Yep exactly. All they need to do is increase share of wallet, getting more planes is easy done. Virgin will never run more routes than Qantas IMO but i reckon they're poised to compete on the profitable runs.

[malachii]

Wouldn't that just be a matter of scale and to some extent a "chicken and egg" problem?

If Virgin had more business passengers they they would run more planes more often.

If Virgin ran more planes more often then they would have more business passengers.

No - I dont think so because it is not just a matter of buying/leasing more aircraft. Virgin dont have the infrastructure at airports (and no more space is available to build in places like SYD and MEL). A lot of airports (PER, ADL and BNE come to mind) are building new infrastructure but it is for "common user" terminals to encourage other (overseas) airlines in. The maintenance facilities VBA have in MEL couldn't cope with a great deal more aircraft without significant investment. As VBAs aircraft age they are going to need major overhauls which they currently dont have facilities/skills for in Australia. It takes a lead time of many years to purchase more aircraft - you dont just go down to the local aircraft showroom and ask for a couple of 737s. Getting finance for a $120 000 000 purchase is not like just slipping down to the bank and filling in a bank loan application. If they buy more aircraft they will need to set up proper training facilities for training flight attentants (currently done mostly by Q - but they only have so much extra space) and pilots. For every 12-18 aircraft you need to buy a new $20 000 000 simulator. Currently these are housed (for VBA) in Melbourne (2 with Ansett Simulators) and Brisbane (1 with Alteon). Where would they place another? And then what happens during the next downturn.....

I'm not trying to be a smart ar$e. They cannot grow and compete with Q - the capital and commitment required would just not be possible. Sure they will take a % here and there but they have just about grown as much as they can in Oz. This is why you are seeing them take on smaller, more efficient aircraft (Embraer) and expanding overseas (US with Delta, NZ with Pac Blue etc).

malachii

[michaeldenna]

some things that work to vbas advantage

aircraft - most of these are leased v Q who own most of theres
hq - vba hq in qld is around 400 v Q who have 5000+ staff.

re - qantas being the prefered business travel option due to the number of flights -> absolutely correct. in our team (20 staff) we would have 2 - 5 staff travelling each week. if a flight is delayed / cancelled this costs our business money. only the other day, our meeting ended early so we caught the earlier flight (which was only 30 mins but again that meant i could go into work a little earlier the next morning). all $$$

[adam.francki]

So VBA has obviously dropped in share price considerably in the last week or so... Would this have anything to do with the volcanic ash cloud in europe? I thought it wouldn't since its only a domestic airline but would the price still be affected due to virgin atlanic aircraft being grounded in europe. I may be completely, stupidly wrong about this. Thought I might just enquire thats all. Any help would be great. Thanks

[risktaker]

So VBA has obviously dropped in share price considerably in the last week or so... Would this have anything to do with the volcanic ash cloud in europe? I thought it wouldn't since its only a domestic airline but would the price still be affected due to virgin atlanic aircraft being grounded in europe. I may be completely, stupidly wrong about this. Thought I might just enquire thats all. Any help would be great. Thanks

Maybe it's due to their High PE, High Debt/equity level compounded by an expected rba rate rise? .................................................. ...................

[Hedders]

oh boy...VBA has tanked today. Lower (and very vague) net profit forecast now somewhere between $20-$40 mil compared to $80 previous. This will leave punters guessing if it's going to be a 75% reduction in profit or 50%. No surprise that the share price is off some 25% today. Should have sold these suckers at 80c a few months back :banghead:

Where to from here??

[frankie_boy]

Where to?

As long as there are no more volcanos.. Riots in Thailand.. terrorist threats...planes falling out of the sky...things should look better..

[malachii]

This is aviation - it's not what you can see going wrong that will hurt - it's the thing you cant see. Nobody expected a SARS event or a 9/11 or a ....... there are a million and one different things even without considering the long term increase in fuel and the amalgamation of huge airlines into even bigger ones. Aviation is a dangerous place to invest at the best of times. I dont know of anyone (someone will correct me I suppose) that has made big money in aviation in the last 40 years or so - or longer. Even Branson doesn't make money off running an airline. He just uses his brand (virgin) to establish it and then pulls his money out. VBA he established with $20mil (I think) and pulled out well over $100 mil (again I think) during the initial float. Other than losing a bit of face even if VBA went broke - he made his money years ago plus some.

Having said that - VBA does have a new CEO and an ex QF one at that. He will be bringing forward every bad news item he can lay his hands on so he can blame previous managment and give himself a good headstart.

malachii

PS - I own no shares in VBA but I do hold some in QF due to having been given them as a "bonus" while working for QF. I would sell them if I could but unfortunately I'm not allowed!

[stefan_invester]

hmm
i Think this is abseloutly RADICOULIS what has happend with VBA today
first of all, why have so many people reacted so badly to this and started selling?
its not like VBA is goin broke like elders
and second, it didnt really have to fall this much, like seriously, id could have fallen back to about 0.35. but ok whatever.
oh well i guess thats life aye
some people are gonna get REALLY rich because of what happend today i bet..... :disgust::disgust::disgust:

[malachii]

stefan_investor,

Can you say why you think it is ridiculous. Just to make broad statements doesn't give us much to go on. I have to say that I think the market reacted about right with the vagueness of the statement and also the fact that the industry is the way it is. Particularly at the moment - any hints of problems and the market will dump the stock as quick as they can. There is too much volatility about to get caught out.

malachii

[oldblue]

Here's a commentator's take on VBA.

Must say I agree with malachii. Airlines' stock can be successfully traded, sometimes, but make lousy long term investments.

http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/opinion/virgin-blues-second-profit-warning-in-a-month-a-shocker/story-e6frg9if-1225872728468

:cool:

[stefan_invester]

im just a very mad investor at the moment
because i have been watching VBA very closely for the last few months
and it has been doing wonderfully, and when i finally decide to buy it,
it fully tanks, so its just a very bad thing for me.

But i have also heard people saying that people have overreacted to the message, and the selloff was over reacted.
Its not like VBA is going broke, they are making money, that is what i am finding so annoying.

hopefully the next few days will see some value come back.

[Hedders]

im just a very mad investor at the moment
because i have been watching VBA very closely for the last few months
and it has been doing wonderfully, and when i finally decide to buy it,
it fully tanks, so its just a very bad thing for me.

But i have also heard people saying that people have overreacted to the message, and the selloff was over reacted.
Its not like VBA is going broke, they are making money, that is what i am finding so annoying.

hopefully the next few days will see some value come back.

I'm a frustrated investor too Stefan, but sadly the market has spoken and I think it will take some time for investors to forgive 2 successive profit downgrades in one month. VBA may recover a little if it delivers a profit closer to the $40 mill mark. Effeciencies need to be found somehow as well, and finally VBA needs to grow its corporate market as a priority. It'll be interesting to see what happens on Monday, after investors have had time to take in the slaughter on Friday!

[Poppypop]

I've been trading since october 2008 and virgin blue is a winner for me. I had 20,000 shares @ 33c last year when they announced the capital raising @ 20c. I bought a further 100,000 shares @ 20c and sold them when they opened on the market @ 36c. I gave up trading vba after they climbed higher than 52 as I didn't believe they were worth more than 50c at that time. I was surprised to see them go all the way to 80c and then decided to start buying again at 61.5 cents, and 46.5c, then they plummeted to 31c I doubled my shares. Now I have 40,000 shares with an average price of 38.5c. I will be buying 10,000 shares for every cent they drop under 31 as I believe they will be up around the 50 cent mark within the next 12 months.

[stefan_invester]

yes, i am wondering
what VBA will do on monday, very interesting
we had a bad lead from the over seas market in the US with a heavy sell off,
which may be bad news for VBA holders, but on the other hand, this does look like an EXCELLENT time to stack up on very cheap shares :D.
so just 24 more hours...

[Hedders]

VBA is still looking pretty sick- down another 6% on Wednesday. Sadly I can see this one sliding down for a while yet. Anyone game enough to pick the bottom?

[oldblue]

VBA is still looking pretty sick- down another 6% on Wednesday. Sadly I can see this one sliding down for a while yet. Anyone game enough to pick the bottom?

I wouldn't even try to pick the bottom.

Wait for the inevitable (?) rise. Either it will or it won't

;)

[jonnycage]

have finally dipped into this one at 30 cents, maybe some short term
gain to come ? maybe not lol

j c

[Poppypop]

I have been stacking up around the 30 mark too. i know when it rises it rises quick. 30 cents for an airline as big as virgin blue is just ridiculously cheap in my opinion. I do expect some considerable rises before the end of the year with this stock or ill pull out and put it into something else.

[oldblue]

I don't know about VBA being ridiculously cheap at 30c. There's over 2.2 billion shares on issue and even at 30c the M/Cap is almost $700m.

While the SP seems to have bottomed out at current levels I think I'll wait to see some real strength.

[jonnycage]

i keep adding a few around the 31cent mark, am looking for some upside, just not yet ... anyone else adding ?


j c

[Poppypop]

i keep adding a few around the 31cent mark, am looking for some upside, just not yet ... anyone else adding ?


j c

lol....i already hold a fair bit of VBA which i bought at the 31.5-32 mark but keep missing the 31 cent price because of so many other lower risk, good buys out there, with nice dividends coming up in August ie: QBE, Woolies (WOW) and even Telstra (TLS). Hopefully, VBA will close at 31c today, I will buy some more if i have some money left to trade with. It could dramatically rise or sink (depending on news) at any given day now hence why im hesitating at the 31.5 cent mark.

[yap]

VBA has made it back to the July levels after today's announcement of a $21m profit..

[Poppypop]

The drought has finally broken YAY. I read a 34m profit after todays announcements after close of market. I bought a **** load of this stock at 31 cents with a sell at 62cents. 40% of my portfolio is Virgin Blue atm. Im hoping to double my money within the next 6 months.

[ksetiady]

The drought has finally broken YAY. I read a 34m profit after todays announcements after close of market. I bought a **** load of this stock at 31 cents with a sell at 62cents. 40% of my portfolio is Virgin Blue atm. Im hoping to double my money within the next 6 months.



go fly high VB ................... with JB on the board, it will back to 80cents by dec

[frankie_boy]

go fly high VB ................... with JB on the board, it will back to 80cents by dec


Lets hope so.. After being knocked down by the consumer commission on the merge with Delta.. Any ideas as to why?

[Poppypop]

Lets hope so.. After being knocked down by the consumer commission on the merge with Delta.. Any ideas as to why?

Yeah competition watchdog. Other airlines were complaining about it. I have a feeling once VBA proves its case it won't hold for at least one of the alliances, either with air NZ or Delta. I think they will eventually allow the Delta merger but not the NZ one. Either way I still see VBA @ 60 cents sometime before Christmas.

[Poppypop]

Yeah competition watchdog. Other airlines were complaining about it. I have a feeling once VBA proves its case it won't hold for at least one of the alliances, either with air NZ or Delta. I think they will eventually allow the Delta merger but not the NZ one. Either way I still see VBA @ 60 cents sometime before Christmas.

Just to let everyone know. I sold all my shares @ 45c yesterday for an 18 grand profit as the brokers recommendation turned me off holding this stock. I still think it's going to go up but not as quickly as I thought. I have found better buys out there with better broker recommendations. I will consider buying VBA again in small amounts if it falls below the 40 mark or goes up to about 60 and drops to 45 otherwise im out of it :).

[Poppypop]

Ok I have been doing some portfolio juggling today and I bought back into VBA @42.5 because it has been fairly solid in the mid 40's range. Only bought 8,000 shares with the intention of buying more if it drops and possibly selling if it gets above 46.5.

[JDN]

Anyone care to provide their thoughts on VBA? Looks pretty good to me at 0.430 as a mid to short term prospect. Especially with their alliance with SXR today? Anyone disagree?

Disclosure; own some VBA and SXR stocks, looking at purchasing more VBA.

[frankie_boy]

Just bought in again on VBA at .40 after its had bit more of a slide..

Nothing to say it will slide further, but dont see anything but positive announcements..

[Garpal Gumnut]

Just bought in again on VBA at .40 after its had bit more of a slide..

Nothing to say it will slide further, but dont see anything but positive announcements..

The hosties are getting uglier.

Not a good sign for the share price.

gg

[frankie_boy]

The hosties are getting uglier.

Not a good sign for the share price.

gg

that could be a serious issue..

think they must of heard you, and sacked em... jumped up 10% today.. thankyou muchly =)

[oldblue]

Air New Zealand has announced that it is a substantial holder of VBA.

All to do with "cementing ties" between the two airlines, apparently.

:rolleyes:

[frankie_boy]

Taken little bit of a hit, with the spike in fuel prices, and shaky ground in NZ, may just top up somewhat...

[Tekwrek]

Anyone game to jump on this stock, or will it slide further?

[Poppypop]

Anyone game to jump on this stock, or will it slide further?

I'm a holder, but i have a feeling its going to slide further with higher fuel prices. Either way I see it as good value but what would i know :)

[Poppypop]

Anyone game to jump on this stock, or will it slide further?

I'm a holder, but i have a feeling its going to slide further with higher fuel prices. Either way I see it as good value but what would i know :)

[nulla nulla]

The hosties are getting uglier.

Not a good sign for the share price.

gg

Recycled old boilers ya reckon. Reg would be laughing in his grave.

[Tekwrek]

I'm a holder, but i have a feeling its going to slide further with higher fuel prices. Either way I see it as good value but what would i know :)

It seem like even better value now at 31c.

[frankie_boy]

Now dropping to 29c

I been topping up.. i am still in profit from my original pp, but dont want to be too overloaded..

[nulla nulla]

Would you like a parachute with your drink sir?
Are we coming in for landing or still descending throught the clouds?
Hope we have enough fuel left in the tank to take off again. Mind you, with the rising fuel prices, that could be the problem. The tank is empty.

[toocool]

Really testing support today ...

[Tekwrek]

Now dropping to 29c

I been topping up.. i am still in profit from my original pp, but dont want to be too overloaded..

The anouncement today with Delta should bring you a windfall.

[Misterlazy]

With the recent change from Virgin Blue --> Virgin Australia
and the midst of the ever impending oil price bubble collapsing related to (Osama's death , Eventual resolution in Saudi) and the fact that the australian dollar will be rather static for the moment,

Isn't Virgin blue an ideal candidate to hold for the short term (6months)?
The fact that the company has worked on their name issue rather then other important things must be a sign of undergoing change in the company.

I hold and this is the logic i used, could anyone give me insight on where abouts my naiveness ?


Cheers

[skc]

With the recent change from Virgin Blue --> Virgin Australia
and the midst of the ever impending oil price bubble collapsing related to (Osama's death , Eventual resolution in Saudi) and the fact that the australian dollar will be rather static for the moment,

Isn't Virgin blue an ideal candidate to hold for the short term (6months)?
The fact that the company has worked on their name issue rather then other important things must be a sign of undergoing change in the company.

I hold and this is the logic i used, could anyone give me insight on where abouts my naiveness ?

Could you explain the logic of the name change bit again? Why is changing name "a sign of undergoing change in the company"? :confused:

And what evidence do you plan to use to prove whether you are right or wrong? Revenue? Oil price? AUD? Passenger carried? Another name change?

[frankie_boy]

Click me for better news for Virgin (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/08/3238522.htm)

[Misterlazy]

Surprised no discussion in threads about VBA? boosted bit under 10% today, and approx 20% in total over the last few days, taking advantage of tiger airways inevitable demise.

Looks like the future is becoming brighter for all VBA holders :eek:

[Misterlazy]

Could you explain the logic of the name change bit again? Why is changing name "a sign of undergoing change in the company"? :confused:

And what evidence do you plan to use to prove whether you are right or wrong? Revenue? Oil price? AUD? Passenger carried? Another name change?

I guess i'm more of a speculator then a FA, the change of name, change of uniform, change of slogan, added advertisements and other changes such as changes to the virgin lounge is all part of a plan to become a stronger force in the australian airline market. VBA has been around for a while and has been very quiet on the market for the past year or so. They haven't been hit as hard as QAN by surging fuel prices and tickets have been compared to be cheaper on Virgin Australia. I can only assume that this is a form of good hedging, although i'm unclear of the company's operations.

Only now is it starting to shine off the fact Tiger airways has been barred from skies for a month.

In comparison QAN has only risen 8% compared to VBA's 20% upon news of Tiger airways suspension.

Discuss :eek7:

[robusta]

I guess i'm more of a speculator then a FA, the change of name, change of uniform, change of slogan, added advertisements and other changes such as changes to the virgin lounge is all part of a plan to become a stronger force in the australian airline market. VBA has been around for a while and has been very quiet on the market for the past year or so. They haven't been hit as hard as QAN by surging fuel prices and tickets have been compared to be cheaper on Virgin Australia. I can only assume that this is a form of good hedging, although i'm unclear of the company's operations.

Only now is it starting to shine off the fact Tiger airways has been barred from skies for a month.

In comparison QAN has only risen 8% compared to VBA's 20% upon news of Tiger airways suspension.

Discuss :eek7:

I would not invest in any airline with stolen money - look at a 10 year chart of any airline in the world. :2twocents

[Misterlazy]

I would not invest in any airline with stolen money - look at a 10 year chart of any airline in the world. :2twocents

Sounds like your speculating as much as me. Have you considered that the reason why airlines have been declining in the past 10 years or so is because newer airlines are making the airline industry hard to survive in? Subsequently we have all heard the "airline industry is one of the hardest industries to thrive in". On the other hand there will be a point where the industry is saturated (hopefully now) where no newer airlines can really enter the market. And because of the saturation consolidation/partnerships are being formed (virgin-singapore etc). It really isn't that bad of an industry to be entering now. Not to mention the increase in people flying more frequently in the future and possibilities of new technology with regards to flying.

Your argument is similar a cut out of a real estate cycle (interest rates have been rising for x years house prices slowly declining "i would not invest any money into real estate look @their x year graph" whilst others will buy up where there is value and eventually create a buyers market.:eek:

[bob99]

I would not invest in any airline with stolen money - look at a 10 year chart of any airline in the world. :2twocents

It’s all about hope, thank god I got out of these back in March 2010 (71cents) after picking up a whopper of a parcel at 14cents.

As soon as Tiger comes back - which I am sure they will - god knows why though, yet when they do, VBA will be dropped again as those who are simply trading them will make some cash from the recent low of 26cents.

Wouldn’t be holding out much hope for this stock. Just my opinion, would take it as advice - ha!

[robusta]

Sounds like your speculating as much as me. Have you considered that the reason why airlines have been declining in the past 10 years or so is because newer airlines are making the airline industry hard to survive in? Subsequently we have all heard the "airline industry is one of the hardest industries to thrive in". On the other hand there will be a point where the industry is saturated (hopefully now) where no newer airlines can really enter the market. And because of the saturation consolidation/partnerships are being formed (virgin-singapore etc). It really isn't that bad of an industry to be entering now. Not to mention the increase in people flying more frequently in the future and possibilities of new technology with regards to flying:

Each to their own, I just look at the cash flow, they operate on paper thin margins, have rising costs and no competitive advantage.

When I travel I just look for the cheapest fare (with the exception of Tiger)

People have been flying more frequently in the past, these are still crap businesses IMO.



Your argument is similar a cut out of a real estate cycle (interest rates have been rising for x years house prices slowly declining "i would not invest any money into real estate look @their x year graph" whilst others will buy up where there is value and eventually create a buyers market.:eek:

I think Richard Branson said it best, “The easiest way to become a millionaire is to start off a billionaire and go into the airline business,”

Read more: The slot machine - New Europe http://www.neurope.eu/articles/105271.php#ixzz1RZFjYCpY

Read this article from last year and then think about how Qantas has gone in the last 11 months:2twocents

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/13/2982009.htm?site=thedrum

[Misterlazy]

Read this article from last year and then think about how Qantas has gone in the last 11 months:2twocents

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2010/08/13/2982009.htm?site=thedrum

Appreciate the explanation rather then your one quick sentence :o with regards to how QAN has done in the last 11 months, i noticed both QAN and VBA rocketed up during late AUG/SEP 2010, i hadn't kept an eye on airlines during that time, anyone here know what was the cause of that increase in share price over such a short time? :confused:

[Misterlazy]

It’s all about hope, thank god I got out of these back in March 2010 (71cents) after picking up a whopper of a parcel at 14cents.

As soon as Tiger comes back - which I am sure they will - god knows why though, yet when they do, VBA will be dropped again as those who are simply trading them will make some cash from the recent low of 26cents.

Wouldn’t be holding out much hope for this stock. Just my opinion, would take it as advice - ha!


Thats the thing that dazzles my mind, if the airlines is such a horrendous industry why would Tiger not just pull out of the market. I honestly feel like we are missing something. I mean surely we can all stand on the sidelines point fingers and laugh at the so called "stupidity" of Tiger airways(permanently damaged reputation) reentering the market after losing approx $18mill in earnings in July already. Obviously all VBA holders or QAN holders are praying that Tiger fails hard. But does the board of directors at Tiger know something about the profitability in Australian airlines that we don't know? :confused:

[tollbridge]

Thats the thing that dazzles my mind, if the airlines is such a horrendous industry why would Tiger not just pull out of the market. I honestly feel like we are missing something. I mean surely we can all stand on the sidelines point fingers and laugh at the so called "stupidity" of Tiger airways(permanently damaged reputation) reentering the market after losing approx $18mill in earnings in July already. Obviously all VBA holders or QAN holders are praying that Tiger fails hard. But does the board of directors at Tiger know something about the profitability in Australian airlines that we don't know? :confused:

Excellent point! I've never really understood Tiger's strategy - it seemed like a disaster from the beginning with regards to Sydney being off limits for the first few years (or months, I can't remember). Their advertising is next to nothing, their reputation is horrible, they're constantly receiving negative press - yet we hear nothing from anybody. It all sounds dodgy as hell - but maybe there is something around the corner? Who knows - it reminds me of "Blue Star Airlines" :p:

I've kept VBA in my watch-list since 2007 and always use it as my "hot tip" whenever I'm asked just for a laugh. It always moves - just never in the direction I expect it to :banghead:

[frankie_boy]

Tiger is back, and now talk of more domestic aviators coming to the fray...

That belt gets tighter and tighter..

[Smurf1976]

Excellent point! I've never really understood Tiger's strategy - it seemed like a disaster from the beginning with regards to Sydney being off limits for the first few years (or months, I can't remember). Their advertising is next to nothing, their reputation is horrible, they're constantly receiving negative press - yet we hear nothing from anybody. It all sounds dodgy as hell
I know of one company that does quite a bit of business travel. Employees are specifically prohibited from booking flights with Tiger without senior management approval, and such approval will only be granted under exceptional circumstances where no other means of transport (eg bus, train, another airline, drive there) is practical.

Reasons for this policy relate to (1) business disruption caused by the unreliability of Tiger services and (2) perceived legal liability if employees are allowed to fly Tiger and a plane falls out of the sky.

There are no restrictions on employess of that company using any other airline in Australia or indeed any other form of public transport. Says it all about Tiger's reputation really...

As for Virgin, why mess about with Tiger / Jetstar / Qantas when Virgin don't seem to have anywhere near as many problems and their fares are comparable. It's a bit of a no brainer isn't it?

[FreshTrader]

Anyone else expecting these stocks to go up as a result of Qantas' proposed strike on Tuesday (20th) ??

[skc]

Anyone else expecting these stocks to go up as a result of Qantas' proposed strike on Tuesday (20th) ??

If everyone sees it it would have gone up already. Plus how much benefit can a short disruption actually help VBA's bottom line?

Look at the VBA price when Tiger was grounded... it was a surprise so the price moved up quickly, but how long did that move last?

[FreshTrader]

Damn, should have trusted my instincts, VBA stocks closed at 29c today after getting to a low of 0.275, should have jumped on board then. We'll see what tomorrow brings.

[FreshTrader]

"AIZ: Air New Zealand Increases Interest in Virgin Australia"
Source: CommSec Website

They claim this is market sensitive, what does this mean for the share price? Will it go up or down as a result? Background Info: Air New Zealand acquired approx an additional 110,000,000 shares. Will this result in a positive or negative effect on the share price? Cheers. :aus:

[oldblue]

It strengthens the alliance between VBA and Air NZ and should be positive for both stocks.Not a huge deal but certainly not a negative for VBA.

[Boggo]

It strengthens the alliance between VBA and Air NZ and should be positive for both stocks.Not a huge deal but certainly not a negative for VBA.

And meanwhile at camp Qantas the smoke and mirrors continue.
It won't be long until you see a swap of the current QAN and VBA share prices.

Borghetti is inching forward at a nice steady rate while on the opposition side...
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/flying-into-a-storm/story-e6frg14l-1226144780808

[FreshTrader]

And meanwhile at camp Qantas the smoke and mirrors continue.
It won't be long until you see a swap of the current QAN and VBA share prices.

Borghetti is inching forward at a nice steady rate while on the opposition side...
http://www.perthnow.com.au/news/western-australia/flying-into-a-storm/story-e6frg14l-1226144780808

How long is "it won't be long"? I currently hold a decent amount of Virgin Shares and as such am obviously highly interested in its movement. When do you predict the decision of the approval of the Singapore partnership will be announced?

[Smurf1976]

Over the past few days I've flown the same route (in opposite directions) with both Jetstar (part of Qantas) and Virgin.

In short, I paid about the same fare each way. And yet the standard of service with Virgin is clearly much better than the robot-like Jetstar.

I'm literally about to book a flight to a different (domestic) location now. Yes, I'll check Virgin, Qantas and Jetstar to compare fares. But the only way you'll get me flying Qantas or Jetstar is if it's significantly cheaper than Virgin. If I'm going to get crap service then I'll only put up with it if it's saving me money.

If others reach the same conclusion, and if you regularly fly with different (domestic) airlines then sooner or later you will, then Virgin would seem to have substantially more pricing power than Qantas and especially Jetstar. Long term, surely that has to be a good thing for VBA I would think.

[FreshTrader]

Thanks for your input Mr Smurf, I've noticed it's been a bit quite on this thread in recent months. What you've said has really put things into perspective for me. Fingers crossed for a continued increase in VBA's share price (shouldn't be too much to ask for with the recent and proposed future Qantas strikes) ;)

[FreshTrader]

If the deal between Singapore Airlines and Virgin Australia is approved by the ACCC will this be sensitive for the price of VBA or is this already valued into it?

[drsmith]

Over the past few days I've flown the same route (in opposite directions) with both Jetstar (part of Qantas) and Virgin.

In short, I paid about the same fare each way. And yet the standard of service with Virgin is clearly much better than the robot-like Jetstar.
The seats are closer together on Jetstar as well.

Either that or my legs were a little longer and the Financial Review was printed on slightly bigger sheets that day.

EDIT: And the cabin interior creaked somewhat on takeoff.

[budfox26]

I'm just a casual trader and would like to sell my vba stock while qantas is down. Could anyone please provide me with some possible price points?

Thanks

[robusta]

Sorry can't offer advice, my opinion is sp will be lower in 5 years than it is today. If I can be any less help please feel free to ask another question.

[fryzie]

I would think now would be a good time to invest and buy shares into Virgin.

[notting]

I would think now would be a good time to invest and buy shares into Virgin.
I hope they really take off. Will make a great short when Qantas turbulance has passed. The best thing about airline stocks is that they always land or crash!