WES - Wesfarmers Limited [Archive]

sam21poddy

7th-August-2004, 06:53 AM

If you look at the historical dates, it seems that on the dates that the results are announced, the record date (and ex-dividend date) are backdated. I know this sounds ridiculous but the most recent dates were:
2 March '04 - reporting date for first half results;
16 Feb '04 - ex-dividend date for first half results;
20 Feb '04 - record date for first half results. I haven't seen this with other shares. I suspect that the professional traders know how it works and that is why it is trading so low today. I don't want to be caught out and buy it if I don't get the dividend. I am holding too many shares at the moment which will take a while to recover so I don't want to get in any deeper unless I am sure of my facts.

stefan

7th-August-2004, 07:14 AM

sam,

I can't follow you there. WES has announced it's results on the 10/2 declaring a dividend to be paid on the 2/3. You normally don't know when a company goes ex dividend much in advance. You can however relay on previous dates to get an idea. So for now, Wesfarmers are scheduled to release full year result and dividend announcement on the 10th of August. Surely they wouldn't be trading ex dividend today then.

Happy trading

Stefan

sam21poddy

7th-August-2004, 07:23 AM

OK. I see where the confusion occurs. You say WES announced its results on 10 Feb. My search of past calendars (and ASX) shows that it announced its results on 2 March (after the ex div date). The next announcement for final year results is 10 Aug (next Tues). So I will have to listen to the results next Tuesday and see what dates they announce as the record date for paying a dividend. I currently hold 500 shares so I think I will leave it at that. Stockmarket is a bit too volatile for me at the moment. Thanks for replying.

Ann

27th-December-2005, 12:57 AM

This is looking a little more positive recently. Just a short time ago I attended a broker presentation, they suggested the the Bunnings 'softness' was overstated.

I noticed the incoming CEO Richard Goyder gave an open briefing on the 18/11/05 http://www.corporatefile.com.au/documents/OB/Wesfarmers%20Briefing%20Day%20Consolidated%20Versi on%20PDF%2018.11.05.pdf

....here is a chart with some comments...

Ann

28th-December-2005, 09:53 PM

Tomorrow will be interesting for this stock.

RichKid

28th-December-2005, 10:21 PM

Tomorrow will be interesting for this stock.

Hi Ann,
Nice charts! I've only just begun to keep an eye on indicators like the 200 day ma that large groups of participants look for, so a sustained break over that hurdle may see those who trade ma's (eg ma crossovers) come into buy and that should push the price higher than that most recent minor top as well. Interesting how one group can trade off the other group- not that all buyers will be trading the ma but it's interesting.

mit

28th-December-2005, 10:35 PM

Looks good but today's volume is low though as we are in the christmas break period. It's up on my radar as well as the Dividend is due in mid February. I need to buy it tomorrow to keep the franking credits

MIT

RichKid

28th-December-2005, 10:37 PM

...Dividend is due in mid February. I need to buy it tomorrow to keep the franking credits

MIT

Isn't the holding period calculated after the ex-div date (eg 45 day rule? hold for 45 days after ex-div? Isn't that for large amounts of divs?). Sorry a bit of a novice here with this franking stuff.....

silly me, just did a search on the topic, I don't understand the rule properly, Crashy seems to have explained it in a nutshell here in Rozella's ex dividend thread (post #31)http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=454&page=2&pp=20&highlight=day+rule. So you just have to hold if for 45 days at risk, can be 45 before or 45 after ex-div date...

mit

29th-December-2005, 09:27 AM

I sell on the ex-div date, of course you can hold past the ex-div date to make up the 45 days. Another thing is that I don't think the 45 days includes the buy and sell days.

MIT

Dutchy3

19th-January-2006, 08:57 PM

Looking for a BIG WHITE. Will we get one?

Dutchy3

20th-January-2006, 10:10 PM

Breakout BIG WHITE's are getting a little scarce in the ASX 200 these days.

Still, took a 'anchor' position in this one today. Will compound if it proves strong.

Dutchy3

30th-January-2006, 08:53 PM

Market Depth remains strong through the day and at the close is 8.5 : 1.

Gap up on the open a good sign as well. Hold Long

Julia

30th-January-2006, 10:23 PM

Presuming you already hold WES, at what point ($) would you add to your position? This stock has only just exceeded my cost price. The yield is good.

Julia

michael_selway

30th-January-2006, 10:39 PM

Presuming you already hold WES, at what point ($) would you add to your position? This stock has only just exceeded my cost price. The yield is good.

Julia

Yeah yeild is pretty good about 5-6% + franking. But the risk of holding it is quite high esp in times like this? Also not much upside accodring to the forecasts?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2005 2006 2007 2008
EPS 163.9 251.3 246.3 226.4
DPS 180.0 237.7 240.0 228.0

123enen

30th-January-2006, 11:36 PM

I agree with Michael. Some of the shine has come off this market darling.
Coal prices down and mining costs up.
Hardware stagnant if not a little down.
Insurance margin squeezed.
Still a good company but not outstanding and earthquake proof like before.

Might get back to $40 as it runs towards dividend ex date.

Dutchy3

31st-January-2006, 11:26 AM

Hi

I have a time frame that can be measured in months. As this is a CFD position I will remain long while I'm convinced the current reaction can take me back to the 4000 - 4150 area, else I pay financing for time not price. Red lines are the point at which I've taken positions.

Dutchy3

16th-August-2006, 07:48 PM

Hi

Managed to extract capital from this one as it stalled.

Weekly chart tells a better story. Hard to extract much joy from a stock that is failing at longer term support around 3500

3 veiws of a secret

24th-August-2006, 03:59 PM

Seems like this share is free-falling ....perhaps an interesting stock for the long termed portfolio,any veiws from our technical cohorts.

kennas

24th-August-2006, 04:43 PM

Golly, next support, way down there! :eek:

The only thing that's going to turn this around is significant change in business model and/or sentiment and/or T/O.

3 veiws of a secret

24th-August-2006, 08:57 PM

Recently reading the Smart Investor comic August edition and if my memory serves me well, it had a sulky reveiw on WES, seems the comic was correct ....here you go page 20 written by Alan Jury !
I have a habit of picking up shares like this one ,once it has been oversold -take a look at GDY,EOS ,RIN you see how low I stoop.

kennas

25th-August-2006, 09:12 AM

You going to wait till it hits $30, 3 Views, or are you bargain hunting now.

3 veiws of a secret

25th-August-2006, 03:07 PM

You going to wait till it hits $30, 3 Views, or are you bargain hunting now.

At the moment I've got a cash flow problem,but once resolve early next week ,I will access.
Patience Kennas ......you never know when the worm turns in todays market ,but WES have some big issues coming their way,I'd rather wait!Dark clouds mate ,getting darker! Need time to think even CSL tempts me.

Ken

17th-November-2006, 11:59 AM

wes....

couple of months on... still think its in a down trend...

is $34 a share too expensive. the dividend is very handy....

would it be worth adding. its under performed 2006 and 2005 hasnt it...

theasxgorilla

11th-December-2006, 10:46 PM

To my estimation (purely technical) it's consolidating in a downward slopping flag pattern and has found support at the 38.2% fibb. retracement of a previous major range and is within the orb for a primary cycle low.

It's also paying a 5.9% fully-franked dividend against a 3.8% All Ords average.

This all said it's not showing any signs (yet) of resuming an uptrend.

Kauri

13th-January-2007, 01:50 PM

Wesfarmers tipped as likely target for LBO
12th January 2007, 7:45 WST

Leveraged buyout firms are now said to be sizing up Wesfarmers for a $14 billion-plus takeover bid with a view to breaking up the WA group.
With Wesfarmers shares trading at near 12-month highs, traders said yesterday that trading in credit default swaps suggested the company was being stalked.

Wesfarmers five-year credit default swaps (CDS), financial instruments that are used to speculate on a company’s ability to repay debt, have widened from $US24,000 ($30,670) for each $US10 million of debt to $US45,000 since the beginning of the year. An increase indicates a deterioration in the perception of credit quality and a fall suggests an improvement.

“There is nothing else that would justify that kind of widening at the moment,” Westpac director of capital markets Phil Miall said. “Someone is expecting its credit quality to deteriorate.”

Wesfarmers is seen as particularly attractive to LBO groups because of its diverse spread of strong, separate businesses with good cash flows, including the Bunnings hardware chain and Kleenheat Gas, which could be sold as stand-alone companies.

“Wesfarmers has six separate businesses which can be readily divested,” said Craig Saalmann, a credit strategist at ABN AMRO. “There is no shortage of liquidity chasing good assets.”

Also, unlike other targets, Wesfarmers shares are trading well off their record highs, having risen just 1.5 per cent last year, against the 19 per cent gain by the S&P-ASX 200 index.

At yesterday’s close of $37.56, up 36¢, Wesfarmers is valued at $14.2 billion. However, on a sum-of-parts basis, it may be worth considerably more.

The company declined to comment yesterday. However, one senior Perth business figure, who requested anonymity, said he did not doubt Wesfarmers was “vulnerable to a break-up”.

“I think there is a real chance the company might well be in play down the track,” he said.

Wesfarmers chief executive Richard Goyder is already on record as saying that the flood of LBO cash into Australia over the past 12 months has hampered growth prospects for listed companies by increasing asking prices for acquisitions

“The whole private equity thing is interesting, because clearly it’s making some assets more expensive and I can’t see us getting into a bidding war with private equity because we wouldn’t be able to pay the same price,” he said last month.

SEAN SMITH and ROBERT FENNER with REUTERS and BLOOMBERG

doctorj

13th-January-2007, 03:26 PM

Ever since the offer for Coles I've been saying that old WES would be next. I agree with the author that the business is worth far more than the some of the parts. Further more there gearing is easily low enough to support the debt the LBO would bring in.

The outlook for Wesfarmers' Coal division is putting too much downward pressure on the overall shareprice. Equally, I think the market has overly discounted them for it.

Interestingly enough, Wesfarmers have very recently split off their Coal operations from the Wesfarmers Energy division in to a division of its own. WES requires that each of its division's compete internally for capital. Maybe they're positioning themselves to divest the coal assets?

Incidentally their insurance division is going gangbusters at the moment - the ROC for some of their insurance businesses is off the scale. That's why they took OAMPs and why it wouldn't suprise me that in the next 12-18 months we see them take a few more insurance companies out.

But the question is - in the event of a hostile takeover (a friendly takeover just won't happen), will they be able to defend themselves? It's tough. I think management at WES is conservative enough to make them an easy target. However, with the right advisers, there'd be plenty of easy arguements to make that no matter what the offer is, it undervalues WES.

kennas

13th-January-2007, 03:37 PM

I've been watching this too, but not closely enough the past month to notice the breakout. I've always been vary curious of their business model. It seems to be more a shell company for other assets than one homogenous organisation. Insurance and coal?? More like an LIC? With the amount of liquidity in the market this has to be on the radar of MBL and co.

doctorj

13th-January-2007, 03:44 PM

No, just an old fashioned conglomerate.

It was originally a business that served the needs of Western Australian farmers. They owned a company called Landmark (which they have since sold to Elders I think). When a farmer needed seed, pesticides, or whatever, all he had to do was speak to his local Landmark office. Wesfarmers expanded into producing the fertilizers and chemicals themselves and added specialist insurance products aimed at Farmers.

Since then they've added coal, got rid of Landmark and some of their other businesses and also grown insurance thru the purchase of Lumley, some underwriters from farmer's co-ops around Australia and even ventured into NZ.

Their model hasn't been anything like a LIC, its been about growing their existing businesses where they have experience into new markets - gradually stepping out. It's been very conservative, but it has worked.

kennas

13th-January-2007, 03:54 PM

Thanks DrJ, Most of the subdivisions I can understand as serving the needs of the WA farmers. The business unit that doesn't make a lot of sence to me is the Coal division. What made them go into this area? Plus, the Curragh mine is in QLD - hardly WA focussed there. Just natural expansion? Do you think they've eventually expanded too much, and therefore would be a target, or was this just their approach to add value to shareholders?

doctorj

13th-January-2007, 04:03 PM

I don't know too much about the advent of Wesfarmers Energy unfortunately. As for it being in Qld - I think this isn't especially relevent. WA is where WES started, but it now sees itself as proudly Australian. It has established close ties with farmers and tradesmens co-ops across the country. It has especially close ties to Qld, especially after Cyclone Larry in March last year. It destroyed so much in the farmland up that way and Wesfarmers took the opportunity to build its reputation with its clientele in the area to help get a lot of farmers back on their feet.

I don't think Wesfarmers have expanded "too much". They are an incredibly well run and managed company. In a world of cheap debt, I just feel they are a little too conservative which has cost them in terms of there share price in recent years (lets not forget just how much they've out performed the market in the last 10 though) and will ultimately make them a target for a LBO.

robots

13th-January-2007, 06:32 PM

Hello,

Since Chaney has left their SP has struggled yet NAB's has sky rocketed.

I think their being looked at as an expensive Retail stock primarily from the Bunnings side of things.

Bunnings is now selling household electrical items etc

Will be interesting to see next 5yrs.

thankyou
robots

Garpal Gumnut

13th-January-2007, 09:00 PM

Thank you all for your thoughts on WES

I agree with technical and fundamental opinions that something is afoot with WES.

?$42 + within the next few weeks.

Garpal

kennas

13th-January-2007, 09:04 PM

Thank you all for your thoughts on WES

I agree with technical and fundamental opinions that something is afoot with WES.

?$42 + within the next few weeks.

Garpal
Garpal, you need to provide some analysis on why this stock it going to your target here. Not just a blind pluck. Can you please inform us of your methodology in coming to this price targe? Cheers, kennas.

Garpal Gumnut

13th-January-2007, 09:42 PM

Thank you for giving me the chance to expand.

Fundamentally I agree with Kauri and Doctorj. WES is a conglomerate, asset and cash rich and not just a West Australian Co-op run by farmers anymore. It is the sort of operation that Buffet would have looked at 30 yrs ago in the US. Its well run, divisions are each accountable and the company is not shy of shifting direction. It makes money and pays good divies. Every time I go to Bunnings I am astounded at the service and value, and the number of customers. I don't know anything about insurance preferring to buy stock in insurance companies, but they tell me WES are on to a good thing in the financial press.

Technically with which I am more comfortable on the monthly charts it has been making higher highs and lows since 1990, on the weekly a downtrend since Nov 2005 has been broken and price and 5,15 and 30 EMA have recently crossed to an uptrend. Just before Christmas the daily charts did similar. (I don't watch daily charts much, I'm a long term investor.) The high was $42.45 I think on about St Patricks Day in 2005. I expect the monthly chart to continue as I believe in the power of the trend.

I may be wrong. Sorry I can't post charts.

garpal

reece55

13th-January-2007, 10:09 PM

Wow guys, this move from Wesfarmers completely skipped past me. To be honest, I watched it continually decline throughout 06 and really just took it off my watch list. I have always like the business model - it has always been a well managed business and I agree with Kennas in saying that the mix is a bit odd - certainly not a traditional divisional mix, but it has certainly worked in their favour in the past.

Really like this latest move technically - it appears to have broken that downtrend that has been in place since about March 2005. Additionally, those lows back August - September 06 attracted a lot of volume, suggesting buyers accumulating a cheap stock oversold. Fridays close is an excellent sign - close right at the top with medium high volume. If there is a LBO here on the cards, I would expect that in order to get the directors to sign off, they will need a significant price premium than is presently reflected in its share price. I will be adding this one to my watch list ASAP - I think this one has the potential to move and quickly.

Cheers
Reece

theasxgorilla

13th-January-2007, 10:12 PM

Hi Gumnut (odd name for a trader?!?),

Here is the chart. I've marked it up to show each consolidation/down trend and the fibb. level of the retracements. Moving average is a "simple" 12-month.

Garpal Gumnut

13th-January-2007, 10:43 PM

Nice chart Asxgorilla. What software do you use? Gumnuts wait and wait for fire or rain then grow. Your name equally is peculiar for a trader.
Garpal Gumnut

kennas

13th-January-2007, 10:43 PM

Hi Gumnut (odd name for a trader?!?),

Here is the chart. I've marked it up to show each consolidation/down trend and the fibb. level of the retracements. Moving average is a "simple" 12-month.
Great chart Gorilla, thanks.

My 5 year chart is a little more bullish that yours. Just turned the corner on a long term wave 5 perhaps. Plus, MACD just about to break though signal line and diverging....

Time for a CDF perhaps... :)

Must say, I'm still bearish about the general market right at this point. Wouldn't want to commit overly to something that will be effected by a general market correction - like this - perhaps...

Garpal Gumnut

13th-January-2007, 10:48 PM

I agree Kennas with 5th wave EW. Meant to mention it in my post. Where does the 5th wave go to? I could look it up but you probably know. Probably a fib type extension from the high. Garpal Gumnut

theasxgorilla

13th-January-2007, 10:49 PM

Nice chart Asxgorilla. What software do you use? Gumnuts wait and wait for fire or rain then grow. Your name equally is peculiar for a trader.
Garpal Gumnut

Haha, touche Gumnut :)

I use Market Analyst (version 4).

reece55

13th-January-2007, 10:58 PM

Time for a CDF perhaps... :)

Must say, I'm still bearish about the general market right at this point. Wouldn't want to commit overly to something that will be effected by a general market correction - like this - perhaps...

Kennas

Agree that the XAO is presently showing strong bearish divergence, so in regards to the market in general, I am generally looking for shorts as opposed to longs, as I think that will be our next move. But in saying that - WES looks like a great opportunity here. You could always set your stop at about 37.00 and go long here - to me it looks to have the potential at least to $40.00 (highs in August 05) and potentially 42 per Gumnut, provided the bullish move remains intact. Good risk/reward here IMO - I wouldn't gear too much here as on that kind of a setup, I the risk would be about 3.2%, so maybe warrant may be a goer. Haven't looked at options, but I would assume IV would be high due to LBO talks.

Cheers
Reece

Garpal Gumnut

13th-January-2007, 11:05 PM

Thanks Theasxgorilla., and all other posters. a great venue for sharing ideas which I use too infrequently.
Lets all expect good trading fortune from WES. My buys have been executed. No exciting CDF's, Warrants or Options. A div in feb and a rise above $42 will satisfy me.
Garpal Gumnut

theasxgorilla

13th-January-2007, 11:23 PM

I agree Kennas with 5th wave EW. Meant to mention it in my post. Where does the 5th wave go to? I could look it up but you probably know. Probably a fib type extension from the high. Garpal Gumnut

Typically Wave 5 is between a 50% and 78.6% extention of Wave 3 (taken from the bottom of Wave 4) but can be 100% or more. See below (monthly chart of WOW) for a good example of a Wave 5 going more than the distance...150% so far.

I think WES is a good trade. It's in the mother-of-all long term up trends and has a habit of doubling in price when it moves.

noirua

16th-January-2007, 11:40 PM

WES have an interesting write up by Aireview: http://www.aireview.com.au/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=4845&setSub=1

Worth looking at on break-up rumours alone.

noirua

18th-January-2007, 01:14 PM

Still looking good at $39.52, up 29c today.

The approval by ACCC of the purchase of Linde Gas Pty., by Wesfarmers and completion by Feb 2007, will have had nothing to do with the share movement. This will have been, continuing thoughts on reports of a buy-out by a Private Equity Buyer.

Julia

18th-January-2007, 03:00 PM

Typically Wave 5 is between a 50% and 78.6% extention of Wave 3 (taken from the bottom of Wave 4) but can be 100% or more. See below (monthly chart of WOW) for a good example of a Wave 5 going more than the distance...150% so far.

I think WES is a good trade. It's in the mother-of-all long term up trends and has a habit of doubling in price when it moves.

Gorilla:

I'm a bit puzzled by this post. The thread is about WES and the chart is for WOW?

Julia

kennas

18th-January-2007, 03:04 PM

Gorilla:

I'm a bit puzzled by this post. The thread is about WES and the chart is for WOW?

Julia
Hi Julia. I think it was just to give an example of where a wave 5 could go. Sean

noirua

18th-January-2007, 03:14 PM

Something odd is going on with WES trading. Having hit a high of $39.80 they fell abruptly to $39.11, and then rebounded to $39.35 a few minutes ago.

Garpal Gumnut

18th-January-2007, 03:59 PM

As you would be aware Noirua a stock like WES is traded by large funds as daytraders trade penny dreadfuls. A variation such as their price today I would accept as the market deciding that is its fair value at that price at that moment in time. The chart on a daily basis after today will get the candle guys going into a high spin.(or a turning one)(or a spin) (or just a turn) (or stargazing) .
Garpal Gumnut

TheAbyss

8th-February-2007, 04:10 PM

I have just joined the WES holders ranks for a while. Garpal, love your style.

TheAbyss

15th-February-2007, 11:34 AM

Any thoughts on what impact the report due today will have?

theasxgorilla

15th-February-2007, 11:35 AM

Any thoughts on what impact the report due today will have?

Hopefully a rapid move with extreme volume to the high side of $40 ;)

TheAbyss

15th-February-2007, 12:44 PM

Well it is certainly a rapid move. Wrong way though.

Dividends up 30.7%. Profits decrease 12%.

4 of the 6 divisions were up though. Yet another opportunity to buy shares at a cheap price in a quality company. The market hates any news that is less than spectacular doesn't it.

noirua

15th-February-2007, 12:49 PM

I'm still banking on a break-up of Wesfarmers as this could prove interesting as well as profitable.

TheAbyss

15th-February-2007, 12:55 PM

It is a chance. The private equity funds are causing some waves at the moment. I see CSR is on the rise again this week. What are the odds of speculation resurfacing shortly?

Wes are a solid stock whether they break up or not IMO. I have no intention of parting with them and picked up a few more at a good price today. The SP is kicking back up a bit already. At one stag eit went to 37.45 but back to around the 38.00 mark now.

Garpal Gumnut

15th-February-2007, 06:56 PM

Any thoughts on what impact the report due today will have?

I would guess the funds will sell WES down on small volume for a few days and then reaccumulate before it goes ex-div. If it goes to $35 ?I'll be back in for some more. Long term I agree its a $40+ stock.

Garpal

UMike

16th-February-2007, 12:15 PM

Won't go anywhere near $35.

Garpal Gumnut

16th-February-2007, 09:18 PM

Won't go anywhere near $35.

as Pauline said "Please Explain" not that I disagree , but this is a forum of ideas not statements.

Garpal

Garpal Gumnut

16th-February-2007, 09:21 PM

Sorry I lost all my data due to a computer crash this week, I just had a look at WES on Comsec charts. The next support is $37 and then it is air to $35. I think Ill put an order in around there.

Garpal

UMike

16th-February-2007, 09:33 PM

as Pauline said "Please Explain" not that I disagree , but this is a forum of ideas not statements.

Garpal More a feeling than anything factual.
But some could be.....
1. Takeover rumors.
2. Strong sound business.
3. Strong cashflows.

Mate if it gets to $35, I'd have bought a large parcell at $35.01. :D

Garpal Gumnut

16th-February-2007, 10:26 PM

More a feeling than anything factual.
But some could be.....
1. Takeover rumors.
2. Strong sound business.
3. Strong cashflows.

Mate if it gets to $35, I'd have bought a large parcel at $35.01. :D feel.,

I'd accumulate at or slightly above $35 but feel it will take off on t/o news or just good management before then.

thanks for your ideas and opinions.

Garpal

Garpal Gumnut

21st-February-2007, 08:17 PM

More a feeling than anything factual.
But some could be.....
1. Takeover rumors.
2. Strong sound business.
3. Strong cashflows.

Mate if it gets to $35, I'd have bought a large parcell at $35.01. :D

Sluckingood, closed today a squeeze above $37.

Just loading my data tomorrow, let me know what you think?

Garpal

UMike

21st-February-2007, 08:30 PM

Sluckingood, closed today a squeeze above $37.

Just loading my data tomorrow, let me know what you think?

Garpal
You do know they went Ex dividend.

They ended up 85 cents down. I believe the dividend was 85 cents with franking so really the stock was up today.

Garpal Gumnut

21st-February-2007, 09:17 PM

You do know they went Ex dividend.

They ended up 85 cents down. I believe the dividend was 85 cents with franking so really the stock was up today.

Dear UMike,

My left brain tells me a stock is never up when it ends down, div or no div.

Lets wait and see. You may be right though.

If not, lets get our orders in for $35.01

Garpal

theasxgorilla

21st-February-2007, 10:07 PM

My left brain tells me a stock is never up when it ends down, div or no div.

Something tells me we'd all like to keep the dividend AND yesterdays share price :).

Garpal Gumnut

21st-February-2007, 10:49 PM

Something tells me we'd all like to keep the dividend AND yesterdays share price :).

Dear Gorilla,

Something tells me this sob is a $54 stock. I've got no evidence for this. There are talks of t/o. Its a complex well run show. Technically it is in a trading range.
I'm not dewey eyed about it, I'll accumulate at $35, sell at $29 and smile at $42+.

Garpal

Garpal Gumnut

28th-February-2007, 09:19 PM

More a feeling than anything factual.
But some could be.....
1. Takeover rumors.
2. Strong sound business.
3. Strong cashflows.

Mate if it gets to $35, I'd have bought a large parcell at $35.01. :D

Dear UMike,

I reckon it will get to $35, not that todays action would have anything to do with it!!

Garpal

UMike

28th-February-2007, 10:14 PM

Dear UMike,

I reckon it will get to $35, not that todays action would have anything to do with it!!

GarpalDidn't go close.

Although it had a great recovery.

Garpal Gumnut

1st-March-2007, 09:11 PM

Didn't go close.

Although it had a great recovery.

Dear UMike,

Have you got your order in for $35.10??

Garpal

UMike

1st-March-2007, 11:19 PM

Dear UMike,

Have you got your order in for $35.10??

Garpal
35.01 :o

Fully Invested. If CBH gose up a fair margin and WES stays about where it is I might go for it.

I gotta find out why WES is dropping a disproportional amount before jumping in.

I have previously held WES and did very well outta them.

kennas

2nd-March-2007, 11:16 AM

If the market stabilises then WES should still be breaking up from down trend established from Jul 05. On the way back up, even more resistance at $40.00 now.

(not holding, yet)

kennas

16th-March-2007, 11:47 AM

Still broken up from long term downwards movement. Respected support lines. Interesting to compare to above post. Going as expected so far.

noirua

16th-March-2007, 12:10 PM

Hi kennas, All I want is a decision to break the company up as this choppy sideways trend seems to be going nowhere. Maybe, the chartists have spotted something I can't see?

kennas

16th-March-2007, 12:15 PM

Hi kennas, All I want is a decision to break the company up as this choppy sideways trend seems to be going nowhere. Maybe, the chartists have spotted something I can't see?It's gotta be on the list of KKR et al you'd think. Volume might be an indicator for that....Can't see it yet.

doctorj

3rd-April-2007, 10:30 AM

http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,21492615-462,00.html

Wesfarmers, in a consortium with MBL have taken a 10-15% in Coles Group.

This just does my head in. Obviously, WES has shown its capabilities in retailing with the success of Bunnings, but will these skills translate to success in food? To my mind, this is a big step for WES and will be a big challenge. Most lucrative of all the elements of a food retailer is their fresh produce range which is far more challenging (ie. it has a very limited shelf life) than hawking nuts & bolts to home reno junkies.

That said, food & booze is a defensive industry and as such fits in well with the WES business model.

Let me say again, this just does my head in - I'll have to think this through much more. I like it, but it does have the potential to make or break WES.

56gsa

3rd-April-2007, 10:39 AM

perhaps they'll sell off the fresh produce and keep the liquor arm which will be merged with bunnings so you can have a beer while contemplating what colour shovel you'll buy?

ROE

3rd-April-2007, 11:45 AM

I was surprise by WES bid for Coles, anyone else got caught up by it?

Man WES is in trading halt and last check there is a bid in for $45?? what the??

noirua

3rd-April-2007, 11:57 AM

I was surprise by WES bid for Coles, anyone else got caught up by it?

Man WES is in trading halt and last check there is a bid in for $45?? what the??

Hi, Something interesting is happening to WES at last. Worth a lot more in pieces are Wesfarmers.

doctorj

3rd-April-2007, 09:10 PM

Hi, Something interesting is happening to WES at last. Worth a lot more in pieces are Wesfarmers.
Depends what your investment objectives are. Sure if Wesfarmers was subject to a LBO and split up and relisted, the offer would be for a good whack more than its current market cap. If the takeover of coles is successful, it should take WES off the market for a little while as higher debt levels will make WES appear less cheap and the implications of the Coles takeover is processed.

I have to be honest, I like Wesfarmers, a lot. Their greatest asset is their culture and management. Their goal is simple, to get a good return on shareholder's funds.

I've had the opportunity to process the idea more over the course of the day and I believe that I was accurate earlier when I said it is likely to be a good thing for WES holders but not without significant challenges. The success of Myer after being bought suggests that experienced retailers with good supply chain management can extract significant value from the old CML businesses. WES has both in buckloads in their proven success with Bunnings.

noirua

4th-April-2007, 08:57 PM

doctorj

4th-April-2007, 09:00 PM

Hi doctorj et al, WES seem to have a mix of interests now that vary from selling a loaf of bread to a tonne of thermal coal. It seems, imho, that seperating the mining operations could advantage shareholders.

They've had the variety of business lines for some time, but I agree coal should go. It wouldn't surprise me if it does either. Coal was split from their energy division several months ago (refer to their website). Distinct reporting lines/management and performance assessment makes it not only easier to sell, but easier to justify the sale now its poor results aren't diluted by the rest of the energy division.

noirua

5th-April-2007, 10:35 AM

The market appears happy with the Wesfarmers tie up and moves above $39. Interest could stick around for quite sometime.

Garpal Gumnut

5th-April-2007, 11:09 AM

The market appears happy with the Wesfarmers tie up and moves above $39. Interest could stick around for quite sometime.

I agree.
I believe WES to be in the beginnings of a wave 3 which will take it well above its high of $42.

kennas

15th-June-2007, 01:33 PM

I agree.
I believe WES to be in the beginnings of a wave 3 which will take it well above its high of $42.Great call. Looks like it's about to breakout, or already has broken out on the 3yr weekly. Indicators are looking good.

The Coles buy must be seen to be a good thing here.

Any EW updates on this?

theasxgorilla

15th-June-2007, 06:48 PM

Kennas, we must be watching a number of the same shares!

I'm not sure about the E/W count on this one, but the trend is UP. Breakout from consolidation into new all-time-high territory probably suggests that we've seen a Wave 4 and the manoeuvring of the last few weeks has been a wave i, ii, and now a wave iii of one lesser degree.

On a weekly and monthly chart WES has never closed this high. We're still around the middle of the month, so it will be interesting to see if it can maintain this strength over the next could of weeks. Super bullish if it can.

noirua

16th-June-2007, 10:26 AM

The recent $3 jump by WES may have more to do with the likelyhood of getting CGJ at a cheaper price than was first thought. The Bunnings sale and leaseback probably helped the joy a little.

Kauri

16th-June-2007, 07:09 PM

Todays West Australian... Southern cross at it again...

Wesfarmers surges on coal price, good outlook

16th June 2007, 9:15 WST

Wesfarmers shares soared to a record high yesterday amid resurgent coal prices and a bullish research note predicting they could top $60 if the $20 billion takeover of Coles Group succeeds.

The shares jumped $1.50 to $42.39, outpacing a firmer all ordinaries and in the process eclipsing Wesfarmers’ twoyear-old record close of $42.37.

Already WA’s biggest industrial stock, Wesfarmers’ market capitalisation has soared by $1.5 billion this week to last night value the company at $16.5 billion.

Whereas most of this week’s gains were attributed to stronger coal prices (coal contributes about 40 per cent of Wesfarmers’ gross profits), broker Southern Cross Equities helped fuel investor interest by claiming that “Wesfarmers is the natural owner of Coles”.

In a note to clients, the broker said a successful takeover of Coles could add $5 to Wesfarmers’ longer-term share price, which should be boosted in any case because of an improved 2008 profit outlook for the WA company’s inherent divisions, including coal and Bunnings.

“This could support upside valuations of Wesfarmers above $60 a share,” Southern Cross said.

Wesfarmers and its private equity partners have already flagged that any offer for Coles would include a sizeable Wesfarmers scrip component.

Bids are due in the week starting June 25. A Coles spokesman said yesterday the timetable remained unchanged, despite the Texas Pacific Group-led consortium rivalling Wesfarmers asking for a bid deadline extension.
PETER KLINGER

Garpal Gumnut

16th-June-2007, 11:24 PM

Looks like it's about to breakout, or already has broken out on the 3yr weekly. Indicators are looking good.

The Coles buy must be seen to be a good thing here.

Any EW updates on this?

Yes I would be interested in EW updates on WES.

Have been in $34-35 over last 6 months and am looking to pyramid up on it.

I have read that :
it has been more aligned to coal price,
funds are low on it and are now getting in as if WES gets CGJ they will be underweight,
it is the frontrunner for CGJ

However it is not a done deal that it will get CGJ and WOW is a powerful competitor and may increase the ante for CGJ.

I tend to long term accumulation of upward trending stocks and am more of a chartist than a fundamentalist. I'm more excited by its punch up through last few months consolidation on increasing volume, than anything else ,as per your above charts.

Garpal

kennas

16th-June-2007, 11:34 PM

Yes I would be interested in EW updates on WES.

Have been in $34-35 over last 6 months and am looking to pyramid up on it.

I have read that :
it has been more aligned to coal price,
funds are low on it and are now getting in as if WES gets CGJ they will be underweight,
it is the frontrunner for CGJ

However it is not a done deal that it will get CGJ and WOW is a powerful competitor and may increase the ante for CGJ.

I tend to long term accumulation of upward trending stocks and am more of a chartist than a fundamentalist. I'm more excited by its punch up through last few months consolidation on increasing volume, than anything else ,as per your above charts.

GarpalI think there's some private equity/break up premium factored into the price also at the moment, which leaves me a little cautious, but that certainly might be the play which would add 30% (approx) to it's current sp. Maybe.

kennas

18th-June-2007, 12:52 PM

Oustanding breakout I think on the 3 yr chart. Was a short term break a few days ago on the daily. Touched $44.00 today. Anyone actually own this?

I don't. I've been spectating. :( :banghead:

chops_a_must

18th-June-2007, 12:58 PM

Oustanding breakout I think on the 3 yr chart. Was a short term break a few days ago on the daily. Touched $44.00 today. Anyone actually own this?

I don't. I've been spectating. :( :banghead:

I do.

Traded the breakout and looking at a target of around $48. Might be one to trade to free carry kennas, as it pays good dividends... Nicely run company and I'm not exactly sure why it hasn't joined in the run since the end of last year...

The $48 is the 261 extension of the recent low to its previous high.

ORG looks good as well while we're talking blue chips kennas. Not holding yet though.

Cheers,
Chops.

theasxgorilla

18th-June-2007, 05:23 PM

Oustanding breakout I think on the 3 yr chart. Was a short term break a few days ago on the daily. Touched $44.00 today. Anyone actually own this?

I don't. I've been spectating. :( :banghead:

Yes, since the initial breakout (my definition) in December last year. Given confirmation of new high and blue sky, I may add to my position.

canaussieuck

18th-June-2007, 05:32 PM

Yes, since the initial breakout (my definition) in December last year.

Thats interesting...your B.even stop must have just held on...assuming you use one...that was quite a retracement after the channel breakout.

Cheers,

theasxgorilla

18th-June-2007, 05:58 PM

Not even!

I had no new major low, so I never moved my initial stop. As far as open equity is concerned on this trade, back then, I was in the red-ink. But there were a few factors to consider...

. most of the time when I buy a breakout I wait quite a while for confirmation that its the McCoy. When you buy at this point you have to expect a retracement and an initial stop must accomodate this.

. second I had no new major low to use as an intelligent next stop level.

. third, we had Feb 28 shenanigans putting excessive (artificial/distorting) downward pressure on the market.

. at the bottom of that low, on a daily chart, we had a big outside bar (respect the outside bar...at tops and bottoms)

. on a weekly chart a tail formed...probably all those clever people who said, "if it gets down to $35.00 again I'm buying".

As chops said, this one pays a great dividend yield (not as good as it did in December ;) ), although it's an ASX20, $40 share, so my expectations are realistic. To have a 16% price gain in 6 months is still only matching the XJO for the same period...hardly staggering.

Garpal Gumnut

18th-June-2007, 08:07 PM

Not even!
To have a 16% price gain in 6 months is still only matching the XJO for the same period...hardly staggering.

Mate,

If I could have a 16% gain in six months, every six months over a trading lifetime I'd be more than comfortable with it.

It is a staggering return over six months.

Live through a good bear correction like 87, see the market go nowhere for 5-6 years and you wouldn't be so dismissive of 16% in six months.

Garpal

canaussieuck

19th-June-2007, 10:03 PM

Great reply G'rilla, incidently was that a CFD trade?

I think i would have got stopped out...probably went too tight with it.

Many thanks.

Cheers,

theasxgorilla

20th-June-2007, 04:20 AM

Great reply G'rilla, incidently was that a CFD trade?

I think i would have got stopped out...probably went too tight with it.

Many thanks.

Cheers,

Cash and margin trade, not CFD. I think that time for a swing trade with CFDs has passed for now.

As for being stopped out, psychologically its not easy to give your positions 10-15% wiggle room, but its seemingly necessary to participate in the big trends.

chops_a_must

28th-June-2007, 01:53 PM

I've had the opportunity to process the idea more over the course of the day and I believe that I was accurate earlier when I said it is likely to be a good thing for WES holders but not without significant challenges. The success of Myer after being bought suggests that experienced retailers with good supply chain management can extract significant value from the old CML businesses. WES has both in buckloads in their proven success with Bunnings.
I may be wrong... but didn't WES own FAL at one stage? I seem to remember something about that.

Anyway... it appears WES are now a shoe in to get Coles:

Ownership review update
Coles Group said that TPG, Carlyle and Blackstone have advised today
that they will not be submitting any offer or proposal in relation to the
company on Saturday June 30, 2007.
However, the consortium has also advised the company that it has not
withdrawn from the process, and that it has indicated an interest in
discussing with Coles an alternative investment structure.

As Homer would say, "the two sweetest words in the English language, de fault, de fault!"

Hard to see how the coles board or shareholders could refuse now. WES would have the power to block any splitting. And I wonder if WES are buying anymore on this weakess below their offer? I'd say yes. What a savvy and intelligent board. Another coup for WA. We can't do anything wrong at the moment.

Oh... and also... the WES SP is going ok. ;)

Cheers,
Chops.

chops_a_must

2nd-July-2007, 09:58 AM

Both WES and CGJ are in a trading halt.

You would expect that this means the coles board have accepted the offer, as WOW aren't in a trading halt. Shall be interesting none the less.

Bluebeard

2nd-July-2007, 06:22 PM

morlock

2nd-July-2007, 08:24 PM

Bluebeard - How would woolies benefit from doing so? If they were interested, why not bid for Coles?

I doubt Wesfarmers would sell.

canaussieuck

2nd-July-2007, 08:31 PM

Anyone reckon that 12 months down the track Woolworths will line up with a bevy of private equity groups and try and knock over Wesfarmers now. For Woolworths theyd have the opportunity in one grab to nail Bunnings, Target and Officeworks whilst letting the private equity teams take over the rest of the Westfarmers group including the supermarkets, Kmart, the gas, coal businesses and the other bits and pieces theyve got.

I think the ACCC might get a bit cranky about that one. There's far too little competition in the retail food industry as is, i can't even imagine the two fo them together...those poor suppliers.

Cheers,

Buster

2nd-July-2007, 10:15 PM

Hey Fella's,

I'm no expert but it seems to me that WES may be paying a little too much for Coles etc.. The blogs all call the hedge fund mess in the US the reason why many of the Private Equity mobs walked away, but there were quite a few interested parties sniffing around initially and they all turned thier nose up..

I'm tipping that the WES SP will soon return to the levels prior to the announcement that they were bidding for Coles, and may even slip further if the real reason the Private Equity mobs shunned the deal was because the books contained some creative accounting with some wishful thinking thrown in..

Just my .2c anyway..

Regards,

Buster.

reece55

2nd-July-2007, 10:34 PM

Well, we will only know in due course......

And in reality, if they are paying too much, it's majority scrip, so it shouldn't be a problem.

Put it this way, they are the private equity group on the ASX that you can actually buy - great brands and who knows, maybe there are synergies here that WES can capture by co branding, rationalization, etc.

Still, love it how the guys painted the spin - first page "it's value accretive". Yep, ok, based on your DCF model, a tad subjective don't you think? At the moment, it is definitely value destructive in the interim (i.e. they are paying a much higher multiple based on future maintainable profits IMO).

This is likely to dampen WES's share price performance till at least October IMO until the scheme meeting goes through. However, in the future, they could really turn the old Coles Group around. I mean, how bad can you really do with the number 2 position in supermarkets in Australia - it's really a recipe to make money if you strategically manage it right!!!

Cheers

Sprinter79

2nd-July-2007, 11:46 PM

:2twocents

Coles needs more shopfronts, more exposure. WES can use some the land associated with Bunnings and the mob that looks after that holding can free some up. Just around my place, there is a huge Bunnings with a massive carpark PLUS an underground carpark that doesn't get used. I can see a Coles getting put there, considering that there are 4 Woolies and only 1 Coles in a stone's throw of where I live.

ROE

3rd-July-2007, 10:43 AM

WES is paying too much for this dog and I think Goyder makes a big mistake
and this would be the beginning of the end for him.

to make Coles profitable they have to growth it by 15% a year for a while
retailing is a very competitive in order for them to growth that fast they have to steal Woolies customers and I dont think they can do that in any time soon.

it has to be some sort of price war going on to steal customers plus according to Woolies ex-CEO Coles and WES dont have an efficient IT and Logistic system in place and they are far behind Woolies in that area.

I work in IT and I can tell you it's a very very difficult job to integrate IT systems and make them work efficiently ..it takes many years of hard work and trial and errors...and I think Goyder may think it's an easy job to undertake but he will soon find out it's a daunting job and with IT skills shortage nation wide where is he going to find the people?

Garpal Gumnut

8th-July-2007, 04:26 PM

theasxgorilla

8th-July-2007, 05:45 PM

I'm a bit more bullish on WES than many on this thread. I'm thinking of adding to my holdings at the 50% retracement from the Aug 2006 low to the recent high. Any ideas from a technical viewpoint on this strategy.

Garpal

The strategy has merit, in the sense that if you buy a confirmed low at around the 38.2% to 50% retracement level you are probably entering at a good R/R level. But volatility is way up in this giant ATM and the price action of the last few days has been volatility in the wrong direction, representing risk to my position! :)

I'm fully loaded on this one...and got in early with the large part of my position, but if i wasn't loaded already I would not be adding to my position. WES is a battleground and its not difficult to see who won the last round.

IF prices stablised and went sideways around the 38.2% or 50% level you describe, then took off again I might add to the position (if I were you) as it takes off and confirms the low...but I'd need to see a confirmed low around these areas before committing more to this one. Buying blindly at this level regarless of confirmed lows, comfirmed holding of support and a confirmed strong upward movement (through signficiant resistance???) out of the low would not suit me.

Key (as always) are the real support/resistance levels. In this instance the 50% level co-incides with real major support/resistance at $40.10 (represented by the pink line). It will be interesting to see if price pulls up at this level...as it clearly has not respected the two prior levels, one of which included the previous ALL TIME HIGH...and the all time highest daily close. Price below the red line is terminal IMO, but I'll be out before then!

Garpal Gumnut

8th-July-2007, 07:07 PM

Key (as always) are the real support/resistance levels. In this instance the 50% level co-incides with real major support/resistance at $40.10 (represented by the pink line). It will be interesting to see if price pulls up at this level...as it clearly has not respected the two prior levels, one of which included the previous ALL TIME HIGH...and the all time highest daily close. Price below the red line is terminal IMO, but I'll be out before then!

Thanks asxgorilla,

I did a semilog chart on WES back to 1990 on monthly data.

It seems to have travelled in a channel as per attached chart. Its spent over 2 years recently travelling nowhere in a consolidation pattern, and in the process moving "down" this channel.

The lower parallel line may be a good indicator of when to get out if it doesn't continue its upward trajectory.

Interestingly it seems to respect "zero" numbers 10, 20, 30, 40 where they function as resistance and support for WES.

Trade well.

Garpal

Garpal Gumnut

21st-July-2007, 03:22 PM

I continue to look at WES and for a few moments last week on all the negative fundamental news considered selling out.

Then I looked at the charts again.

Its now at a 38% retracement from Aug 2006 and approaching a previous resistance level.

The first chart below shows this.

The second continues on my theme of channels with WES, on a weekly chart.

I've a longer term view on trading/investing than many on the forum., so my view is skewed to longer term.

The 50% retracement would be about $39, at which it has previously shown resistance. I may add to my holdings between $37 and $39.

Garpal

theasxgorilla

21st-July-2007, 07:54 PM

For a giant like WES to breakout like it did was a God-send IMO. So in one sense this retracement ought not be that much of a surprise. Yet no matter which way you cut it the current price activity is negative. My positions are still in the black, but it doesn't help psychologically that they were really in the black before!

Julia

21st-July-2007, 09:43 PM

clowboy

21st-July-2007, 10:52 PM

I suspect their will be some hesitation about buying in WES until it becomes clear that the Coles takeover is going to be definitely advantageous.
If WES can indeed turn Coles into the sort of success story that is Bunnings, then both should be worth having. In the meantime, I'll stick with WOW.

To early really yo be factoring coles into the eqation, I mean at this stage the deal isnt even a go. The CEO of westfarmers seems dead set on it though, think there will be much turbulance with the westfarmers share price over the next few years.

One thing I hold against wesfarmers is I dont BELIEVE they have factored the true amount of time and money needed to turn coles around, however they are the kind of company to be in it for the long haul.

ROE

28th-July-2007, 06:18 PM

To early really yo be factoring coles into the eqation, I mean at this stage the deal isnt even a go. The CEO of westfarmers seems dead set on it though, think there will be much turbulance with the westfarmers share price over the next few years.

One thing I hold against wesfarmers is I dont BELIEVE they have factored the true amount of time and money needed to turn coles around, however they are the kind of company to be in it for the long haul.

I don't think WES can pull the deal off at the current closing price.
Both party can pull out at any time if WES trading at the current level or below in near future and the reprice of debt risk may make WES reconsider :D

GRaeN

15th-September-2007, 03:07 PM

Hi guys, my first post!

What do you think about buying into WES now?

To my novice eye I think it is about to improve in share price, especially with the ex-dividend date approaching, and the Coles purchase seeming to near completion.

Interested in hearing your thoughts.

GRaeN

Fool

1st-November-2007, 11:48 PM

hey Graen,

yeah I im long on WES with a cfd. the dividend will be nice, especially considering cfd's get it the day after ex date :)

Hi guys, my first post!

What do you think about buying into WES now?

To my novice eye I think it is about to improve in share price, especially with the ex-dividend date approaching, and the Coles purchase seeming to near completion.

Interested in hearing your thoughts.

GRaeN

ta2693

2nd-November-2007, 12:08 AM

hey Graen,

yeah I im long on WES with a cfd. the dividend will be nice, especially considering cfd's get it the day after ex date :)

I do not get it. would the price of CFD be decreased after ex date. and the difference is same as the dividend you get?

Fool

2nd-November-2007, 12:19 AM

yeah it drops but its all about timing, when you get in and when you get out, i think watch tomorrow for a good chance to get it, US futures are falling...

i will be watching for about $43.40s

greenfs

8th-November-2007, 07:03 PM

My broker is in Shanghai, China at present on business where today he with others received a presentation from the head of Citigroup regarding this share.

The presentation included a projection that the share price may make $80 within 2-3 years with one of the key driver being the expected increased revenue and profit from coal sales, which I understand make up 35% of income sources pre-Coles takeover. His visit to China has confirmed that spot prices in China are in the process of increasing 20% as we speak with more to come later.

Given the sp dipped substantially today to <$40, this to me now looks like a good buying opportunity. In this regard, I note that another financial planner has separately indicated that he had clients buying up big under $40. The same financial planner had his clients also buy substantially when BHP bottomed at $31 in mid August 2007.

I am presently only a small investor in this company but will tomorrow increase my portfolio's exposure from 2% to more like 20%.

A copy of the graph is provided for information purposes.

14920

doctorj

8th-November-2007, 07:16 PM

Is the presentation available? I'd love to know where they find all that extra value in the near term with coal. Seems a little suss to me.

michael_selway

8th-November-2007, 07:47 PM

noirua

13th-November-2007, 11:18 AM

A test now for Wesfarmers as they move to test the $40 level and hopefully don't descend back to the all important $38 level. May be a little more upside as the Coles Group situation continues to be evaluated and talk of better times on the booming coal front may help sentiment. Hopefully, may move back to test the 2007 high point.

Garpal Gumnut

21st-December-2007, 10:24 PM

Much as I abhor fundamentals, I must relate the following inside information on WES.

I have long been a Woolies shopper but decided today to get a few xmas essentials from the local Coles.

The change since I was last in there 6 months ago was phenomenal. The check out chicks were alert and plentiful and there were back store staff actually in the aisles, something which distinguished Woolies from Coles in the past where the latter were presumably previously having durries and discussing their sick leave in the carpark.

Has WES started applying some hot iron in the local stores? or had someone put some speed in their water.

If this continues , I might let WES settle back towards $34 where it looks to be going chart wise and head into it again.

Any info would be appreciated.

gg

clowboy

21st-December-2007, 11:00 PM

Garpal Gumnut

21st-December-2007, 11:19 PM

What store?

Somewhere in townsville?

So far no changes have been made at store level, christmas out the way is the number one priority ATM. Rumors of middle managment changes are plenty ATM.

Only change in terms of morale is HOPE, people are expecting alot from new ownership.

WES have announced a christmas "bonus/gift" to all permanent (long serving) employees of $25 which has been seen as a "start" and more than Coles ever done.

Like I said alot of people hoping for a brighter future

Yes mate,

The Annandale Central store in Townsville, near Lavarack barracks. Its a big growth area and Woolies are putting in a huge development about 2ks down the road, and Myers are opening up about 2k the other way in 18 months in a Stockland redevelopment with another Woolies already there, so the Coles mob will need to get the proverbial finger out.

gg

clowboy

21st-December-2007, 11:50 PM

Garpal Gumnut

21st-December-2007, 11:55 PM

Although no one would ever admit it, 95% of coles problems are not store fault

It's a case of **** rolls downhill and the store is the bottom of the list so it is a cespool.

things will change, the question is, how quickly?

A very valid point, all those Age readers working out of that compund in Melbourne, the head honcho Fletcher stated he'd never been in a supermarket, or some such silly statement, prior to taking on the job. The trolley boys today could have run the joint better than its been done.

Roll on WES thats what I say.

gg

2020hindsight

29th-December-2007, 08:33 PM

just for the record
here's WES for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages
Also WES vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either
a) help out and divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)

Smurf1976

29th-December-2007, 10:11 PM

Went to Kmart to buy a microwave recently. Sounds simple enough but the bottom line is that no way was I going to be allowed to buy the only one of that type they had in the shop.

Nope, that one's to sit on the shelf and I'll have to wait for the stock to arrive if I want to buy one. When will it arrive? The staff didn't seem to know.

A quick check revealed that 50% of all microwaves, 100% of washing machines and 100% of clothes dryers were out of stock. And plenty of other "out of stock" items elsewhere in the store too. This was checking 2 separate stores by the way too so it's not isolated to a single store.

Went to Big W and bought a better microwave for less. In stock and they had plenty of them.

I'll give Coles credit where it's due though. It's always a quicker trip through the checkout there because there isn't a queue. But then it's easy to not have a queue when your customers have gone elsewhere.

Wesfarmers have a LOT of work to do to fix this. Getting products in the shops being a good place to start.:2twocents

robots

29th-December-2007, 10:35 PM

hello,

the thing that is killing coles is price, I can get good natural milk $2.20/2lt at safeway/woolies, coles closest is $2.68/2lt, and translate similar differences thru to other products and presto no-one walks thru the door

wes is looking for product for the Bunnies stores though, in 5yrs or so, groceries will be walking out the door, maybe not everything but a lot of stuff

thankyou

robots

dalek

30th-December-2007, 12:17 AM

There should be little doubt that WES has the ability to turn the Coles organisation around after it's outstanding performance with the BBC Hardware basket case. More valid questions may be about to their ability to control the many other influences of economy, debt, shareholder/market patience, but their skills in merchandising, marketing and building a culture are beyond doubt.
When you look at what the market is prepared to pay for unrealised potential
in some cases (see FMG) it is astonishing that the biggest retail transaction in AUS history and it's available upside, is treated so sceptically.

Yes, I am a former WES / Bunnings member and shareholder but make no mistake, I would sell tomorrow if I thought there was no value.
No sentiment here !!

greenfs

31st-December-2007, 12:27 PM

I am looking for someone willing to give me odds about WES share price as at 01/01/2010. I would like to back the price at being at or above $70. Who will offer the best odds on the other side of the equation and how much is the stake?

To keep it civilised, we could make the wager in Crownie's rather than $$$.

noirua

31st-December-2007, 12:49 PM

I've held this stock since buying back in January last and am wondering whether it is worth holding on. If it gets back to $46 I'm out, as it appears to be a bit like a lumbering elephant these days.
All the old talk a year ago about a break up seems to have gone out of the window now.

robots

31st-December-2007, 01:10 PM

hello,

its interesting to note that since Mr Chaney left WES has struggled, yet NAB over that time has done reasonably well

coles needed to be snapped up by a "quality management team", think many still think a dog but just in a new company structure and therefore WES is coping that mantra

thankyou

robots

reece55

20th-February-2008, 09:26 PM

Big move today on reasonably high volume today - WES is not normally a big mover like this, any news up ahead.....

They have the unfortunate issue of having to re-negotiate the debt they have taken on to acquire Coles shortly, perhaps interest rate issues????

I note CBA have ceased to be a sub holder, perhaps re balancing in light of lower earnings post the Coles acquisition....

Cheers

reece55

23rd-February-2008, 03:32 PM

Not a bad little result from WES, with strong coal prices clearly offsetting the initial dilution of Coles..... There is no doubt that Wesfarmers have big ideas in how to turn the Coles business around and if anyone can do it, WES can...

I tell you what though, the slide on their interest cover really showed that they have been on a spending spree and need to bed down their acquisitions. WES started 2004 with 22x interest cover, now they are at about 5x..... not the best environment to dramatically increase gearing, is it!

Cheers

Kauri

19th-March-2008, 09:57 AM

A story I heard... can't find anything solid... yet... but ...
Wesfarmers may have to pay a hefty credit premium to refinance $A4 bln in debt for its Coles Group takeover.
Cheers
...........Kauri

sassa

19th-March-2008, 11:59 AM

A story I heard... can't find anything solid... yet... but ...
Wesfarmers may have to pay a hefty credit premium to refinance $A4 bln in debt for its Coles Group takeover.
Cheers
...........Kauri

As reported in Money Morning-

Wesfarmers (ASX:WES) could be the latest victim of the downturn in the credit cycle. The massive conglomerate has businesses ranging from coal mining to insurance, to supermarkets. No-one has ever thought the company’s assets to be anything less than blue-chip quality.

But that doesn’t matter, does it?

No. In a credit contraction, assets are assets and debt is debt. Further distinctions are a bit blurry. In the end, creditors don’t care what type of assets you have. They care about the quality of your assets. The just want their money back. If you can’t refinance your debt, it won’t matter if you have all the tea in China on the top end of your balance sheet. There is, in fact, no caffeinated beverage on the planet that can save a company from the debt collector. He doesn’t drink much…just squeezes blood from stones.

Wesfarmers has stumbled. To buy out Coles last year, it coughed up a record AU$18.2 billon. Now it’s having trouble finding someone who wants to refinance part of the AU$10 billion in loans it took out for the deal. The company’s lenders have raised their interest rates. The going rate will now be as much as 2% higher than what Wesfarmers thought it would be. That adds up to a total of AU$280 million.

Here’s the problem. Wesfarmers hasn’t agreed to the terms yet, so it has to decide whether to cough up extra cash...or look elsewhere for funds. It’s really not a great choice to have to make.

sassa

19th-March-2008, 12:06 PM

Sorry,forgot link on last posting.Here it is-

http://www.moneymorning.com.au/20080319/debt-problems-spread.html

josjes

17th-April-2008, 10:14 AM

Wesfarmers requested trading halt due to media speculation about a potential equity capital raising.

The Australian Financial Review newspaper today reported Wesfarmers was planning a multi-billion dollar equity raising to refinance short term debt.

That would be bad news for current share holders wouldn't it ? Dilution of capital base etc.

Does anyone know snippet of the capital raising and what's it likely to be ?

Kauri

17th-April-2008, 10:28 AM

19 March...A story I heard... can't find anything solid... yet... but ...
Wesfarmers may have to pay a hefty credit premium to refinance $A4 bln in debt for its Coles Group takeover.
Cheers
...........Kauri

Maybe it's coming together??
$4bln at least is potentially needed from somewhere, as I haven't heard of them refinancing... yet..

Cheers
..........Kauri

reece55

21st-April-2008, 09:43 AM

Maybe it's coming together??
$4bln at least is potentially needed from somewhere, as I haven't heard of them refinancing... yet..

Cheers
..........Kauri

Well, looks like WES decided the cost of equity would be a lot cheaper than that of debt - a sensible decision, especially with their interest cover at the moment! Here is what we have all been looking for (taken from WES's announcement this morning):

The $4.0 billion refinancing will be completed through a combination of:
•
A $2.5 billion equity issue to be conducted as a 1 for 8 accelerated pro-rata entitlement offer to shareholders at an Offer Price of $29.00 (“Entitlement Offer”). The Entitlement Offer has been fully underwritten;
•
New commitments on customary terms to refinance the remaining $0.8 billion of the Coles acquisition bridge loan until December 2009, which has been secured at average margins of approximately 100 bps including fees; and
•
The US$650 million (A$0.7 billion) 5-year bond issue announced on 4 April 2008.
In addition, Wesfarmers has taken the opportunity to secure commitments to renew its $1.0 billion working capital facility. The average margin on all one to three year debt financing is less than 100bps including fees.

In the end, this is a positive way of dealing with their issues. But the equity is at a substantial discount to the last trade of about $37.....

Cheers

SenTineL

22nd-April-2008, 11:20 PM

this is for existing shareholders only?

so no new shares to new investors.......................??

reece55

22nd-April-2008, 11:27 PM

this is for existing shareholders only?

so no new shares to new investors.......................??

Yep, very sensible little strategy on behalf of the WES board......

Do you really think they would open up a placement to non people who weren't already shareholders when the pricing is 20% below market...

I expect the share price to open up and watch the shorters squeal..... It will be interesting..

Cheers

ROE

23rd-April-2008, 11:31 AM

I stay away from WES for now .. too much risk for little rewards.
what sort of company initially want to buy Office works, k-mart and a bit of food and liquor all up $4-$5 Billion ..then the private equity walk away because of higher credit ..WES decided to add another 12B to take on the whole lot.

They are clearly not in the financial position to do so and do it any way
they are getting away from their conservative approach and that got me worry
and they are getting away when higher credit hit left and right.

plus Coles is going backward... sale rose 3% and inflation at 4%? aren't they going backward by 1% ??

ACCC also announce today they going to make it easier for oversea chain to setup supermarket to counter Coles and WOW dominant, the environment going to get tougher going forward not easier.

Until WES can show me the money they can run Coles and pay down substantial debt I'm not backing them :D

my 2 cents.

hangseng

26th-April-2008, 10:40 AM

butterchops

12th-May-2008, 07:19 PM

So given what hangseng and ROE have mentioned, whats the verdict on the 1 for 8 share offer? Worth the investment or too risky?

Not sure whether WES presents a sound long term investment at the moment. Current share price is $38.12 so it seems there has been some short term boost from the share offer. At the very least this offer could give reasonable short term returns?

questionall_42

12th-May-2008, 09:09 PM

It will be interesting to see what the market does when the $29 issue comes out. I can't see the current $36 holding.

SP has held above $36 since it came out of the trading halt. Strong vindication for the 1 for 8 entitlement offer - no tanking in the SP.

So given what hangseng and ROE have mentioned, whats the verdict on the 1 for 8 share offer? Worth the investment or too risky?

Not sure whether WES presents a sound long term investment at the moment. Current share price is $38.12 so it seems there has been some short term boost from the share offer. At the very least this offer could give reasonable short term returns?

The concept of a long-term investment is so incredibly dependent on how you define "long". One year, 5 years, forget it and hold it forever... Wesfarmers have a great record and I for one believe that Coles will turn around under their direction. However, the only reason why I am going to take this offer up is that it offers immediate returns - the sp will not tank after the issue; if it does decrease, it won't be below $29 - you have an immediate "risk free"(?) return on investment.

Good luck.

ROE

14th-May-2008, 12:04 PM

I'm thinking of shorting WES once it reach $40 ...they have massive interest bill and I cant see they grow Coles more than 10% a year with WOW keep stalking them.

I cant say for anyone else but I personally hardly shop at Coles knowing their dirty tactics about price manipulation and discount, and the stuff about Coles express fuel last week certain re-enforce my believes all along and I think a lot of people treat Coles with caution.

Until WES can change the whole Coles culture (it could take years or never will) it going to be tough for Coles to take on WOW and reclaim market share.

I reckon WES may underestimate how hard it is to turn around the culture
and building an IT logistic system that can rival WOW.

ROE

22nd-August-2008, 09:39 PM

Man Coles performance is shocking despite all the talk up.
nearly $17 Billion in Revenue and cant even make 500M of EBIT
it's like 2-3 cents Coles make in a every Dollar turn over before interest & tax

How much did WES pay for Coles? $15 Billion or something
let see if interest was at 8% on 15B it's like 1B plus in interest payment alone
but lucky for WES it didn't borrow that much so down goes the return on equity rate... they wont have much equity left if Coles keep performing like this. :D

That $29 buck in equity raising start to look real shaky ...

ROE

26th-September-2008, 10:21 AM

Let me keep you guys inform on WES and not broker

I smell fishy

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=97BE9F03-1871-E587-E118FD73DA3E6E40

bellenuit

27th-September-2008, 02:53 AM

Can anyone suggest why the Wesfarmers Partiallly Protected Shares (WESN) are trading only marginally above, or even sometimes at a discount to, the Wesfarmers Ordinary Shares (WES). For instance, today they closed at a discount: WES = $29.28 and WESN = $29.11.

Considering that WESN have exactly the same entitlements as WES in every respect (dividends, voting rights etc.), can be converted at the option of the shareholder to WES shares at anytime at no cost, but additionally have a variable degree of price protection when WES is trading under $43.92, they should command a substantial premium IMO. These are the key terms:

If the two month VWAP for Wesfarmers Ordinary Shares is greater than $35.14 but less than $43.92 at the date of the Lapse Notice, holders of Wesfarmers PPS will receive a bonus issue of Wesfarmers Ordinary Shares (up to 0.25 Wesfarmers Ordinary Shares per Wesfarmers PPS) such that the total value of Wesfarmers Ordinary Shares received will be $43.92. If the two month VWAP for Wesfarmers Ordinary Shares is greater than $43.92, holders of Wesfarmers PPS will not receive any bonus issue.

However, if the two month VWAP for Wesfarmers Ordinary Shares is below $35.14 on the date of the Lapse Notice there is no additional price protection and Wesfarmers PPS Holders will receive the maximum bonus issue of 0.25 Wesfarmers Ordinary Shares per Wesfarmers PPS.

As I read the above and it corresponds to the examples in the prospectus, you are guaranteed a minimum $43.92 in WES shares for each WESN at the lapse date when WES is between $35.14 and $43.92. When WES is trading under $35.14 then you will get 1.25 WES for each WESN at lapse date conversion. So at today's closing price of $29.28 for WES (assuming that at conversion time that was the two month VWAP for WES) each WESN would convert to 1.25 WES, or $36.60 in share value. Yet it is only commanding $29.11 in the market.

I don't understand why it doesn't command a premium of 25% of the WES price, when WES is trading under $35.14 and a gradually reducing premium when WES is above $35.14, cutting out when WES reached $43.92.

The Lapse Date is about 4 years following the WESN issue (so 3.5 years from now) and may be extended if the ASX200 index sits under 6,500 around that time. So there is a timing issue, but that should be immaterial to the premium it should command. The only clause in the Ts&Cs that worries me is the following, but I can't see how that might override the conversion terms mentioned above.

In the event that additional shares are issued in respect of Wesfarmers PPS, the total number of additional shares to be issued will be up to approximately 38.5 million Wesfarmers Ordinary Shares.

Thoughts, anyone?

bellenuit

27th-September-2008, 03:01 AM

I should clarify that the conversion to WES shares at the discretion of the shareholder (2nd paragraph) prior to the Lapse Date is a 1 to 1 conversion. The conversion rates in italics from the Ts&Cs related to conversions initiated by Wesfarmers at the Lapse Date.

3MT

28th-September-2008, 09:28 PM

Let me keep you guys inform on WES and not broker

I smell fishy

http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=97BE9F03-1871-E587-E118FD73DA3E6E40

here's another perspective on the Coles acquisition. they are getting the right team on board.

http://www.insideretailing.com.au/articles-page.aspx?articleType=ArticleView&articleId=3709

You can only steer a big ship slowly. There is much more potential in coles than woolworths only because coles has so much more to improve on. :-)

interest on debt is a concern though.

noirua

28th-September-2008, 09:49 PM

Moneybags

28th-September-2008, 10:09 PM

I've been holding on to Wesfarmers for a few years and just look at this mixed up giant as being several years away from sorting the Coles situation out.
Meanwhile, they pay a $2.05 fully franked dividend which works out as good interest at $29.28 a share, stock price.

Exactly, which is why I bought another swag on Friday, could go lower of course but anywhere around $29.00 (recent entitlement price ) is fair value IMO.

MB

chops_a_must

28th-September-2008, 10:13 PM

Exactly, which is why I bought another swag on Friday, could go lower of course but anywhere around $29.00 (recent entitlement price ) is fair value IMO.

MB

I wouldn't be surprised at all if they have to cut their divvy to pay down debt. I think that would be prudent.

Moneybags

28th-September-2008, 10:27 PM

I wouldn't be surprised at all if they have to cut their divvy to pay down debt. I think that would be prudent.

Fair comment chops, I wouldn't be surprised either:)......but I'm happy with my purchase for now.......not quite bottom drawer material in this climate.

MB

noirua

28th-September-2008, 10:38 PM

I wouldn't be surprised at all if they have to cut their divvy to pay down debt. I think that would be prudent.
Maybe they hope the dividend reinvestment plan will draw the crowds. The 1% discount is very mean as CSR used to give 5% in the 1990's.

chops_a_must

28th-September-2008, 11:14 PM

Fair comment chops, I wouldn't be surprised either:)......but I'm happy with my purchase for now.......not quite bottom drawer material in this climate.

MB

I prefer it to WOW certainly, for my own reasons.

But I'll be looking below sub 25 for bottom draw purchases. If it doesn't get there, no big deal.

ROE

29th-September-2008, 02:22 PM

I prefer it to WOW certainly, for my own reasons.

But I'll be looking below sub 25 for bottom draw purchases. If it doesn't get there, no big deal.

$20 is where I'm seeing it heading... with their high debt position any movement in resource price will impact them pretty hard.

PE of 16 is fairly high for bear market and with a dog flea like Coles :D

dan-o

11th-October-2008, 12:22 AM

This is heading toward the $20 mark mentioned in the previous post. Do people think this is great value or just good value because of the market drop?

michael_selway

11th-October-2008, 01:25 AM

$20 is where I'm seeing it heading... with their high debt position any movement in resource price will impact them pretty hard.

PE of 16 is fairly high for bear market and with a dog flea like Coles :D

lol good point

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 179.5 260.9 264.0 260.0
DPS 200.0 210.0 228.5 219.3

thx

MS

ROE

11th-October-2008, 07:27 PM

This is heading toward the $20 mark mentioned in the previous post. Do people think this is great value or just good value because of the market drop?

I have my eye on WOW rather than WES :-) .. I look at WES when they can prove to me they can change the Culture of Coles.

Speaking of culture I run into a building maintainable guy at one of the Coles building (owned by Coles) a few weeks ago. The door has been broken for months (3 months or more) and they stick a piece of paper said close the door after you enter and exit and make sure it close.

One day I walk out and forgot to close it cos something was on my mind and I didnt pay too much attention to the notice, the guy hassle me and said why don't you do what the sign said.

He had me fire up and I response, I said dude you got a problem here it been happening for months and you don't fix it and you try to pass the buck to someone else and make them close the door? we argue for five minutes and I keep repeating, it's your building, it's your problem, fix it, take ownership.

He walked away wasn't too happy and curse the hell out of me :D

And the door still broken last time I check 2 days ago
So the culture still as bad as ever.

Company cant be doing good when you have work force that doesn't give a damn about their job.

WOW is still expensive in my book so until they dropped further I rather buy WOW.

blinkau

12th-October-2008, 06:48 PM

ROE

12th-October-2008, 07:38 PM

I think your quite right with Coles ROE but at what price is WES so low that it discounts the Coles businesses. You could argue that as WOW trades at such a premium that its price in fact makes it a speculative investment. I agree that at say $45 Wesfarmers was expensive and had no real room for error with its high interest bill and the fact that it still had yet to turn around the business.

You can now buy Wesfarmers at a discount to its book value. With commodities coming off, the Coles purchase receiving negative publicity and the general market trending downwards wouldn't this be a decent time to take a closer look at it. This is not to say that it will turn around or that even at its current value its cheap but it might be worth an in depth look.

I see it differently, WES was a good company before they took over Coles.
Coles can be a massive liability to them if they don't do it right and could even bring WES down.

Because of Coles they have massive interest Bill, their share holders is diluted
their return on equity is decline at a rapid pace.

and Coles distract them away from their other business that are doing well.

To me Coles is a liability not an asset so unless it trades around PE of 10 or below in this market it's too risky :D.

So unless WES is run by Jack Welch, Goyder is a bit of a gamble :D

chops_a_must

12th-October-2008, 08:05 PM

I see it differently, WES was a good company before they took over Coles.
Coles can be a massive liability to them if they don't do it right and could even bring WES down.

Because of Coles they have massive interest Bill, their share holders is diluted
their return on equity is decline at a rapid pace.

and Coles distract them away from their other business that are doing well.

To me Coles is a liability not an asset so unless it trades around PE of 10 or below in this market it's too risky :D.

So unless WES is run by Jack Welch, Goyder is a bit of a gamble :D
I agree.

WES was a great company, and still may well be, before they took over Coles.

It's pretty clear they well and truly over paid for Coles. It has left them with a lot of debt, and doesn't allow for the fact Coles may need significant capital in the future to turn it around. There was no margin for error with the take over, and now there is no margin for error with the turn around.

By the way, what is, and how do you calculate its book value? Doesn't make a whole heap of sense to me as future liabilities are not very clear at this stage.

blinkau

12th-October-2008, 10:25 PM

ROE

13th-October-2008, 07:18 PM

By the way, what is, and how do you calculate its book value? Doesn't make a whole heap of sense to me as future liabilities are not very clear at this stage.

Book value are crap these days I wouldn't put too much faith into them unless they have a lot of cash to back it up.

look at seven last week :-) it trades below the available cash it has on hand in the bank now that what I called a below book value stock :D

company trades below 1.2B and it has 1.3B CASH in the bank.

Accounting over the year has change and book value now account a lot of it to goodwill (Premium you pay for take over or brand name)

all is good if you have a decent brand like Coca Cola or Porsche where the brand carries a premium on the price you sell and stands for quality...

but majority of goodwill I call them wasted money :-) and shouldn't be in the book value at all.

ROE

13th-October-2008, 07:27 PM

It appears true that they overpaid and that I agree can damage them. However they have also stated that the turn around plan is 5yrs isn't it? I mean its hard to judge their success so soon. I do see that they have wrecked their return on equity and have diluted share holders while pulling up a huge bill and overpaying for a business. They have made a mistake however the interesting thing will be to see where the company is in say 6 years from now.

Its difficult to infer that because a door is damaged in a Coles shop and there are some cranky people that the business is doomed. I mean how many people complain about the employees at supercheap, the service at CBA etc. Each business has its own problems.

I haven't done an in depth analysis and I do agree it doesn't appear to be a good investment but I think the frequent Wes/Coles debate may at some stage be overdone. I will be very interested to see if and how it corrects itself only time will tell.

Isn't Costco due in Australia at some time as well?

I predict Coles will do more harm to WES than good, I give credit to Coles Chairman to extract the most values for Coles share holders from WES knowing it's a dog of a company and there is company stupid enough to pay a high premium for it and that stupid company is WES and its CEO/CFO and Chairman. :D

Remember WES couldn't refinance(or the lender want high teen for their interest) last year so they go to share holders for more money in equity raising and look what happen to that $29

..more share holder value is destroyed..they got a few more Billion to go toward 2009

and look like who ever want to refinance wants more than 11% they charged last year for 600 Mill they borrow because the company is getting worse each day..

so they may force to go back to share holders for more money
but who the hell stupid enough to give them the cash? knowing $29 bucks you gave them last year now worth $22 bucks.

Unless their share price goes back to Mid 30s they facing a prospect of much higher debt and bugger all extra equity raising with existing share holders.

do you see the risk now ...better stick to proven WOW if it drops to $20 or below :D

and the broken door and simple trip to the Coles store is sometimes the best information you
will ever get into the running of a company and whether they run a good ship or not.
you may not use it but I do a lot :-) and it works extremely well for me over the year

I give you an example sometimes 1 or 2 years ago DMP was doing crab, everyone discard them, analyst doesnt like it.. then one day I went to a DMP store to pick up some pizza, the damn store was full of people queuing buying pizza, then a few weeks later I went to the coast damn I saw the same thing there, came back to the store I bought a week later still chock block full.

Well enough for me to discard the bad news around Dominos and start to look at the number
I bought in at $2.27 but nothing but good news since then :-)

Garpal Gumnut

13th-October-2008, 07:31 PM

Woolies is better to shop at than Coles, I hold both WOW and WES.

I still think its too early to count WES out yet. Coles was stuffed by Fletcher and Co , so it may take a bit longer to turn things around.

gg

Pager

14th-October-2008, 09:40 AM

Next on the chopping block ?, or nothing to worry about ?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601081&sid=aewy5nxLTAjI&refer=australia

Oct. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Wesfarmers Ltd., Australia's second- largest retailer, owes A$1.26 billion ($878 million) in borrowings that are due for repayment in less than a year and remains within all its debt covenants.

Wesfarmers needs to repay or refinance the bank loans, commercial paper, bank bills and bonds as part of more than A$9.5 billion of total borrowings as of June 30, the Perth-based company said today in an investor presentation filed to the Australian stock exchange.

drsmith

28th-October-2008, 01:11 PM

Looking at the Wesfarmers balance sheet recently I noted the high level of goodwill. It will be interesting to see how debt refinancing plays out and whether like some property trusts new equity has to be raised at a deep discount to the current share price.

I don't hold Wesfarmers shares directly but I do have an indirect interest through ownership of shares in Milton Corporation.

ROE

28th-October-2008, 06:40 PM

Coles is just too big and too bad for WES, I said game over man, game over.

When a good company takes on over a sh*t company, what left over is usually
the sh*t :-) and nothing else.

blinkau

29th-October-2008, 09:30 PM

ROE

30th-October-2008, 04:53 PM

ROE I think you are making some very bold statements in relation to the future of Wesfarmers upon what appears little analysis of the companies financial position. I haven't thoroughly analysised Wesfarmers and hence wont make any strong statements for or against it. I do believe the Coles part is overdone and yes it appears they have overpaid for it just as Suncorp overpaid when they took on their new insurance business. I would be very keen to know why they paid what they did for Coles and on that date it appears they where victim to speculation. If anyone purchased at $40~ when they had Coles it was now in hindsight foolish to hold on however I believe it would be wise to take another look at the company as at some price it must become 'cheap' Lets hope so anyway!

Its very easy to make a strong argument against Wesfarmers however in five years I will be very interested to see if they did manage to turn it around. I most certainly wouldn't make it the only stock in my portfolio.

Dont mind me too much I go off sometimes :) I like WES a lot and that was before Coles :D this my takes on comic WES.

With all their business is firing (boom, bang, slam) with exceptional profit, along comes the Joker Coles and ruin the party and drag WES down... along with its debt.

Because it's other business is doing so well, what happen if Joker Coles partying Culture has not stop and the ship is too heavy to turn and WES fatherly love give too much attention to Coles and start desert other good kids in the family.

Other business may start to lag and then wham bam comes holy batman WOW and take on sidekick Mitre 10 and start implement their batman magic culture on Mitre 10.

Mitre 10 then send off to fight the Gotham's Penguin Bunnings who just about to own the hardware business.

It could be a good fight and when WOW fight someone they like to win
(due to their culture of breeding exceptional in house executives)

people shop at bunnings may go to WOW's Mitre 10 knowing it's low price every day :-) where WES slogan is lowest price is just the beginning and that all there is just the beginning, not every day :)

with debt heavy on there WES side, WOW has little debt it's going to be one hell of a battle and WOW may turn the tides with Bunnings

like with they did with their fore father Coles some decade earlier. History tend to repeat itself in business like the stock market bust and boom.

good bedtime comic story and wouldn't it be funny if it was true :D

PS: this is another true scuttle butt ... I was at Bunnings over the weekend picking up some garden hose, in the garden section. This nice old gentleman was a bit lost with all the selection so he grab a Bunnings employee walking by for help..she said I cant help you I don't work in this section and walk off... The Gentleman make the point that even if she doesn't work in this section she should at least help him or get someone to help him...she refuse to help and walk off.

I feel sorry for that gentleman and was pissed off myself at that attitude as well...maybe Coles cancer catch on, who knows.

sammy84

30th-October-2008, 10:34 PM

Whilst coles is a dog, its still a dog in a duopoly. I'm would be happy to have a horse come second in a two horse race if second prize still pays well :)

chops_a_must

30th-October-2008, 11:06 PM

Whilst coles is a dog, its still a dog in a duopoly. I'm would be happy to have a horse come second in a two horse race if second prize still pays well :)
I think you'll find MTS is beginning to feast off the carcass that is the Coles market share, in certain areas.

So no, I don't think it really is a duopoly any more.

sammy84

30th-October-2008, 11:25 PM

I think you'll find MTS is beginning to feast off the carcass that is the Coles market share, in certain areas.

So no, I don't think it really is a duopoly any more.

Is that in relation to food works? I know little about them. I am from metropolitan melbourne, and most of there stores are regional. Is the buisiness model similar to that of coles, and how does it have an adv?

Thanks

michael_selway

31st-October-2008, 10:55 PM

Coles is just too big and too bad for WES, I said game over man, game over.

When a good company takes on over a sh*t company, what left over is usually
the sh*t :-) and nothing else.

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 179.5 251.0 249.7 233.7
DPS 200.0 200.0 207.0 200.0

http://www.******************/images/stockpricecharts/600_420/WES.jpg

Yeah not 100% sure which way its heading etc

thx

MS

UMike

4th-November-2008, 09:36 AM

Well its up over 13% the past few days....

Still slightly under valued imo.

Even with the current price the dividend is 8.2% fully franked.

noirua

4th-November-2008, 11:06 AM

Well its up over 13% the past few days....

Still slightly under valued imo.

Even with the current price the dividend is 8.2% fully franked.
The chart sort of shows a double bottom, though it looks like a cup and bottom, not sure that's quite so encouraging.

sammy84

11th-November-2008, 03:34 PM

Can anyone shed light on what just happened to the price of WES? In the last hour it has taken a little dive whilst the ASX has been gaining. I cant seem to find any information out there why :confused:

ROE

11th-November-2008, 04:17 PM

Market correct price as information come available ...

some food for though, America in 30 years in boom and bust, people did not spend less on food and non-durable goods (drink,food etc..)

but this time around, there is a massive cut back on non-durable goods
I say Australia will follow the same path due to massive house hold debt.

now WES holding Coles and paying a massive price for it you can only guess what happen to WES when we hit recession :D
not only that it's up against the juggernaut WOW ...

Mr Capital

19th-November-2008, 11:46 PM

Can anyone provide any insight as to how the retail sector, in particular Wesfarmers may go as the lead up to x-mas begins, given these interesting times.

Thank you.

noirua

25th-November-2008, 11:06 PM

Analysts views on the future of Wesfarmers from the ft:
http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/analysis.asp?s=AU%3AWES

Johno

27th-November-2008, 11:17 AM

noirua

27th-November-2008, 11:21 AM

Analysts views on the future of Wesfarmers from the ft:
http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/analysis.asp?s=AU%3AWES

The above gives views on the now depressed shares of Wesfarmers. A bad case of indigestion swallowing Coles.

More important at the moment with just 8 days to go, yes, it's voting for Aussie stock Forums http://www.thebull.com.au/the_stockies/forums.html

ROE

29th-November-2008, 08:40 AM

Was just looking through the "Whats in your portfolio thread" and I see that im one of very few whos holding Wesfarmer.

Im aware that they have a bit of debt and the Coles thing is going to take some work, but still, i would have thought at the current prices of less than $20 that this would be a fairly low risk good buy?

Any thoughts?

Don't under estimate the burden of debt, you may have some great asset
but if your debt is greater I be more worry about debt.

As you can see company goes broke because of debt not because they make little profit :D

There is rarely any company that goes broke because of no debt, in fact most of these company prosper much faster... Takes WOW, awesome balance sheet and in time like these they prosper where their competitor may dies off and they continue to gain market shares and when the next bull arrive they are ahead of the pack.

debt isn't a bad thing but when you use it badly that is a poison pill for you and WES use their debt very badly :-)

Johno

4th-December-2008, 12:17 PM

Just sold all of my Wesfarmer shares. I was just losing too much sleep over them. The job they have ahead of them with Coles is going to be massive.

Every time I go shopping at Coles, im amazed at the lack of service and the standard of the shops and staff. It really was a broken buisiness when they bought it at an inflated price. Although the debt isnt anything spectacular, in these times, its a little more than id like. This will be a good one for me to jump on board later on, but for now im looking elsewhere.

noirua

10th-December-2008, 10:49 AM

Wesfarmers report that production is back on target for 6.5 to 6.9 million tonnes of metallurgical coal in 2008/9 at the Curragh mine in Central QLD. Holdup was due to dragline and winch failure.

hotbmw

11th-December-2008, 11:07 AM

I read this on todays Marcus today report:

There is talk of Wesfarmers looking at a $1bn placement at $12 per share – would be a 26.6% discount.

Colonel Klink

18th-December-2008, 02:56 PM

prawn_86

18th-December-2008, 02:58 PM

Coles is seen as this great burden, and maybe it is, but I'm a shopper and as far as a supermarket goes, I don't give a rat's re basic groceries, if I'm at Coles or Woolworths. It is just about which is most convenient at the time.

I wonder what % of people are like yourself, it would make for an interesting study.

Personally i think all coles stores are absolute ****e and will not go to one unless i absolutely have to. We buy all our fruit and veg from a grocer, meat from the local butcer, and the rest from Woolies. Coles has never impressed, poor quality and higher prices

Colonel Klink

18th-December-2008, 03:29 PM

Prawn.. agree with you. I am talking about your basic grocery lines. I go to specialty butcher , growers market for fruit and veg etc. it's all the stuff you sadly can't eat, but still seem to have stuff your cart with that I'm less fastidious about.

For example I live in Leichhardt, go to local shopping centre where said butcher and fruit and veg resides, not to mention excellent fish shop, grog and so it goes. There is a Coles there so I am not going to make a separate trip to another shopping centre just for the pleasure of shopping at Woolworths.

Not a chance

So I think,with absolutely nothing to back it up, it is about the location and what other shops that surround said store offer that makes the difference( to me)
Klink

nomore4s

18th-December-2008, 03:33 PM

I wonder what % of people are like yourself, it would make for an interesting study.

Personally i think all coles stores are absolute ****e and will not go to one unless i absolutely have to. We buy all our fruit and veg from a grocer, meat from the local butcer, and the rest from Woolies. Coles has never impressed, poor quality and higher prices

We have just moved house into a new suburb which has both a Coles and Woolies in close by (old suburb only had a Woolies).

We have tried Coles a few times now and the only thing better than Woolies is the fact we don't stand in line at the checkout for as long.

The fruit and veg, meat and general range is no where near as good as Woolies and it seems to cost us about an extra $20-$40 per shop. So it looks like we'll be standing in line from now on.

Will be looking to short WES if it can't get above $18.00 and then $20.00

ROE

18th-December-2008, 09:11 PM

Just wondering what thoughts are re future WES debt refinancing. With US rates heading toward zero or thereabouts, I would have thought this would be fairly positive, assuming someone is still lending!

Coles is seen as this great burden, and maybe it is, but I'm a shopper and as far as a supermarket goes, I don't give a rat's re basic groceries, if I'm at Coles or Woolworths. It is just about which is most convenient at the time.

This whisper about another capital raising at $12 seems a bit ugly, though. Any other sources on that ?
I hold both BTW
Cheers Klink

dude look at the Coles number it's doesnt stack up...
It doesnt matter if million people shop at Coles, if they dont make much money out of those people what the point?

I rather have 100 customers and make $100
then a thousand customers and make $70 bucks.

and you know why they go back to share holders for more cash at a massive discount ?

1. Company is crab, the lender wants a massive interest bill to cover their risk so cheaper to go to share holders

2. No one will lend them the money

3. Shareholder wont buy unless they give massive discount as the risk is too high.

Last year WES borrow money they pay 10%-11% for interest bill.

Until Coles can make some serious money, its a very very painful road for WES shareholder with their ROE going down the toilet each year and if Coles
turn out to be a real dog it's will takes WES down with it. :D

johenmo

19th-December-2008, 06:42 PM

DISC: Hold none of these. But work in an industry which sells to these guys.

WOW are a clear leader in the grocery wars. Coles are being challenged by Metacash (IGA, Foodworks etc). These three hold about 80+% of the market.

Doing business with them, WOW seem to have it more together. Coles should get out of the mire but it's going to take some time. As others have said, the debt is holding them back.

FYI - Woolworths in the UK (not related at all) have gone into receivership.

Woolworths set for administration

Woolworths has had a presence on the UK High Street for almost a century
High Street legend Woolworths has buckled under its debt and is set to go into administration, BBC business editor Robert Peston has learned.

The move will put tens of thousands of jobs at its 815 stores under threat.

The board of Woolies - one of the UK's oldest store groups - is meeting to take the formal decision.

Deloitte will be appointed as administrators to the store chain and also to Entertainment UK, which supplies DVDs to supermarket groups.

However, Woolworths joint venture with BBC Worldwide, publisher 2 Entertain, will not go into administration as it is owned by Woolworths' parent company. And all stores will remain open and keep trading, at least for now. Money has been ring-fenced so that salaries will be paid to staff as normal on Friday, a spokeswoman added.

What is the point of Woolworths?
Robert Peston's analysis

Our business editor says that Woolworths has been something of a lame duck retailer for years, losing market share against intense competition.

The company's weak position was also the reason why the government did not intervene to rescue it.

"Government policy is not to prop up lame ducks," our business editor said.

Peter Mandelson, the business secretary, had been in contact with the company on Wednesday, to ensure that if it went into administration, it would minimise the anxiety to its employees.

The company has been asked to do what it can to protect its pension fund, and keep its stores open if possible during the vital Christmas period.

The UK's Woolworths has no connection with several retail chains around the world that carry the same name.

Garpal Gumnut

3rd-January-2009, 04:01 PM

tigerboi

3rd-January-2009, 04:39 PM

michael_selway

3rd-January-2009, 05:42 PM

I am not a funnymentalist and can only go on my own observations of some of WES Retail outlets.

Coles : Could do better
Officeworks : Going gangbusters
Liquorland : Could do better
KMart : absolute crap, cheaper to close it down
KMart Tyre and Auto : going gangbusters
Bunnings : Absolutely gangbusters, flogs the opposition, what opposition ?

gg

Hi Not bad

http://www.******************/images/stockpricecharts/600_420/WES.jpg

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 179.5 231.2 160.0 189.6
DPS 200.0 200.0 140.0 170.0

Date: 17/12/2008
Author: Hannah Tattersall
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 7
Australian retailers are promoting pre-Christmas specials to offset a a bleakDecember 2008 trade. Myer is offering one-day specials. Kmart is giving 50% offChristmas trees and video games. Sales growth in 2008 is at 0.2%, whereas in2007 it was 7.4%. Analysts see the discounting as a panic reaction. Some smallerretailers are not so concerned

thx

MS

Colonel Klink

4th-January-2009, 03:08 PM

just wondering if you grew up in leichhardt ck?i grew up there & went to leichhardt primary & high...the good old days of amco cups & the swimming pool...great memories

oh by the way reckon WES with its debt & coles is the short of 2009...tb

Yep ..still a good spot but I am a comparative blow in (1990). Helps if you don't mind the odd jet(or 20) over your roof.

As for WES ...well, looking to the future there, you might say, because it's no fun at present! ..klink

gerg

5th-January-2009, 06:14 PM

Michael

Where do you get those nice graphs you always seem to include in posts?

Why do you always have then tagged as Director Activity Report, and whose predictions are they for WES earnings in 2009/10/11. They show a marked dip in 2010.

Gerg

gfresh

14th-January-2009, 12:46 PM

Update out today, puts into question the ability to pay out the their nominal 11% yield..

How are they going to fund that $1bn due in October? and then the $5bn :eek7: due next year? Some large dilution coming up ..

The FY2009 interim and final dividend will depend on a number of factors. The company’s ability to pay dividends for FY2009 at the previous guidance level of $2 a share will be impacted by, particularly, the finalisation of the half year accounts, full year results (which will be impacted by the factors noted above) , the outcomes of the impairment testing process, and the structure, conditions and timing of the company's refinancing programme, all of which will potentially impact on the companies retained earnings, franking credit position and dividend capacity.

In the event of a negative impact from these factors, the company may not be in a position to pay dividends for FY2009 at the previous guidance level.

Wesfarmers expects to announce its interim dividend and results for the half year, following eview by the company’s external auditors, on 19 February 2009.

tigerboi

16th-January-2009, 02:02 PM

Michael

Where do you get those nice graphs you always seem to include in posts?

Gerg

the directors charts come from top stocks but i think you got to pay up to get...:mad:

down about 10% since i caned it as the short of 2009:)...tb

ROE

22nd-January-2009, 09:50 AM

http://business.theage.com.au/business/wesfarmers-in-halt-pending-capital-raising-20090122-7mz4.html

first $29, now could be $12 value destroying stock.
Like I say Goyder is a bit of a gamble.

noirua

22nd-January-2009, 10:12 AM

An ASX announcement says Wesfarmers are in trading halt pending an announcement by the company on capital raising.

investorpaul

22nd-January-2009, 10:17 AM

I am not a funnymentalist and can only go on my own observations of some of WES Retail outlets.

Coles : Could do better
Officeworks : Going gangbusters
Liquorland : Could do better
KMart : absolute crap, cheaper to close it down
KMart Tyre and Auto : going gangbusters
Bunnings : Absolutely gangbusters, flogs the opposition, what opposition ?

gg

I work for a property development/investment firm that owns a number of shopping centres with Coles as the anchor tenant. Compared to Woolworths they just cant get anything right. Their stores look old and tired (even though one has been recently refurbished). They fresh produce is below standard and I cant see it lifting in the short term.

Woolworths have maintained their fresh and "exciting" image, they consistently achieve better sales out of their stores and as a result any developer wants them as a major tenant, thus allowing them first pick for new stores. Their liquor division is obviously closely tired to supermarket performance and hence liquorland could also do better.

We dont have any other the other retailers as tenants but I would say your summary is pretty spot on.

deadset

22nd-January-2009, 10:47 AM

nomore4s

22nd-January-2009, 11:06 AM

another one doing a capital raising.... once one does it, they all want to do it, be careful.

No wonder they do a trading halt when they announce it, as if you wouldn't dump any company about to capital raise. From what I can tell, capital raising guarantees that the stock price will stay below a limit until its all over and it hurts current shareholders no matter what.

Capital raising = dirty dogs IMO

Problem is they don't really have a choice due to the huge debt levels they have. It's either raise capital or get into more trouble which would then hurt shareholders even more.

It looks like the capital raising will be at a fair discount too. The share price could get smashed when it starts trading again.
I have trying to get a short entry on WES but couldn't find a set up I liked to justify it - oh well you win some and you lose some.

drsmith

22nd-January-2009, 11:28 AM

$13.50 per share although a 3 for 7 entitlement offer. Institutional component of $1.9 billion fully underwritten.

$An additional $900 million placement at $14.25 per share so a total of $2.8 billion garanteed.

Interim dividend expected to be $0.50 fully franked. Full year dividends not expected to be greater than $1.00 (fully franked). None of the new shares noted above will be entitled to the interim dividend.

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20090122/pdf/31fnrhq0jqkhz0.pdf

I suspect it will initially trade above entitlement offer of $13.50 (those taking shares at $14.25 obviously think so) but where it goes from there in the short terms will obviously depend on overal market performance.

$13.50 ($14.25) ex div implies $14.00 ($14.75) cum div. I'll guess $15.00 when trading resumes.

ROE

22nd-January-2009, 12:53 PM

They need to get rid of the gambler and bring back Michael Cheney.. He make careful takeover and make sure share holder interest was always at heart and it pay off for WES big time over the year..

it doesn't take long for an idiot to un-do all the hard work.

tigerboi

22nd-January-2009, 01:48 PM

the directors charts come from top stocks but i think you got to pay up to get...:mad:

down about 10% since i caned it as the short of 2009:)...tb

you can also get them from hc:mad: looks like wes are headed much lower as i thought they would this year,reckon the coles gamble was a no brainer up against such a well run competitor as woolies,more pain & lower prices coming shareholders way...tb

ROE

9th-February-2009, 11:56 AM

More nightmare could be heading WES way
http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,,25009354-643,00.html?from=marketwatch_rss

UMike

10th-February-2009, 07:20 PM

This is an already over saturated market with so many players involved that it'd be very difficult to start up from scratch and be profitable straight away.

WES need only to improve their existing businesses and reduce debt to become a better performer.

oldblue

11th-February-2009, 06:58 AM

Yes, I'd be surprised to see WOW try and start anything from scratch. If they can't takeover some reasonably sized current player I'd expect them to scrap the idea.

rodmel

14th-February-2009, 09:46 PM

I would apreciate members opinions regarding this issue,
as to whether to attempt to obtain more than my allotment
at $13.50 as against Fridays close of well above $15.00

skc

15th-February-2009, 12:47 AM

I would apreciate members opinions regarding this issue,
as to whether to attempt to obtain more than my allotment
at $13.50 as against Fridays close of well above $15.00

I think you will quickly get a message from the Mods saying you can't ask for, and no one can give you, specific recommendation or advice. Unless they are licensed etc etc.

But let's just say if you buy at $13.5 and sell at $15, you make a $1.50 profit.

Bill M

15th-February-2009, 06:20 AM

I would apreciate members opinions regarding this issue,
as to whether to attempt to obtain more than my allotment
at $13.50 as against Fridays close of well above $15.00

There is another way of tackling this. Lets say you don't want anymore WES shares, what you can do is sell some of current holdings at $16 on market and then with the proceeds buy your new stock for $13.50. You might lose the lousy 50c dividend but you still come out $2 a share in front.

Not advice but just another way attacking the issue and benefiting. Oh and yes I am going to take all my issues, good luck.

rodmel

15th-February-2009, 03:55 PM

Sorry SKC and others I will be more careful as to how I phrase a question but many thanks for your input

Bill M

19th-February-2009, 01:25 PM

Just a quick reminder to all WES holders, you have until 5 PM on Monday 23rd to take up your rights issues at $13.50

That means you must BPay Friday (or earlier depending on your bank) to get these.

Today they are trading at about $16.50, that makes it a $3 difference that could work in your favour should you wish to sell, good luck to all WES holders.

Not a recommendation, just a reminder.

Bluebeard

19th-February-2009, 09:47 PM

Judd

19th-February-2009, 11:19 PM

That means you must BPay Friday (or earlier depending on your bank) to get these.

A small correction Bill M, under the BPay terms and conditions, as long as you make a payment before your financial institution's cut-off time (this is the time at the end of the business banking day when you need to make a payment by for it to be processed overnight), the biller will acknowledge the payment as having been made that day and should process the payment the next banking business day.

http://www.bpay.com.au/consumers/bpay/bpay_qa.aspx#qa130

So you can still make payment via BPay on 23/2 and the biller (Wesfarmers) is required to accept it as having been received on that day.

But I'd make payment the business day before just to be safe.

Bill M

19th-February-2009, 11:29 PM

I havent really followed Wesfarmers, I had a quick look before the Coles Transaction, so for people following this stock, Is Wesfarmers going to become a retailer or will they hold onto all there other divisions such as chemicals and fertilisers etc etc.

Hello Bluebeard, at the moment WES is hanging on to everything and have no intentions on selling anything as far as I know.

The capital raising has reduced their gearing by about 33% and now the share price is on the rise from extreme horrible lows.

I personally think this is a great company and I continue to build on my original shares, particularly when they offer me new ones through the rights issue at a substantial discount to the market.

There are 3 big negatives, coal prices are going down, too much debt and Coles is dragging the chain and needs a major turn around.

The only decision here is can they achieve the turn around? I think they can and I will hold for the long term. Good Luck with your decisions.

Bill M

19th-February-2009, 11:35 PM

http://www.bpay.com.au/consumers/bpay/bpay_qa.aspx#qa130

So you can still make payment via BPay on 23/2 and the biller (Wesfarmers) is required to accept it as having been received on that day.

But I'd make payment the business day before just to be safe.

Thanks, I didn't know that. The funny thing is that my Super fund accepts my BPay deposits on the day of my transfer but my index fund accepts it the next business day. As you say best get it in a day early, I wish they were all consistent.

UMike

20th-February-2009, 03:28 PM

Thanks, I didn't know that. The funny thing is that my Super fund accepts my BPay deposits on the day of my transfer but my index fund accepts it the next business day. As you say best get it in a day early, I wish they were all consistent. Did mine yesterday just in case.

WES up to $17.69 now on a down all Ords day.

In for the long term on this one.

bellenuit

26th-February-2009, 03:02 PM

Terms of scaleback of additionally requested shares in retail offer announced:

Subscriptions for additional shares will get the GREATER OF:

1000 shares or
3 Times Shareholders Original Entitlement under the Offer

They expect 95% of those who applied for additional shares to get the full amount applied for.

60% took up entitlement. $1.5B raised from entitled shares and $0.3B from additional shares. Additional shares to be scaled back to $0.2B, meaning total proceeds from the retail offer will be $1.7B

UMike

26th-February-2009, 03:47 PM

Good. I got my extras :D

Should of applied for more eh?

At least the divi is already in the bag.

freebird54

10th-March-2009, 04:00 PM

Anyone find their mates sold a day sooner than they could with comsec?

Also anyone wondering who is earning the interest on the millions someone is holding for those who oversubscribed? - they are holding more than a years income of mine

nomore4s

25th-March-2009, 02:55 PM

Nice breakout today of the trading range. Target of around $23.00 but would like to see some consolidation zones on the way up indicating the bottom could be in.

kennas

20th-April-2009, 12:12 PM

Nice breakout today of the trading range. Target of around $23.00 but would like to see some consolidation zones on the way up indicating the bottom could be in.Yep, looks very good. Have to assume a bottom in place by the chart. So many looking like this makes me think the bottom is in.

Bouncing off the previous resistance should make it support.

Should....

johannlo

5th-May-2009, 01:01 PM

UMike

6th-May-2009, 08:56 AM

What do you guys think of buying in at current prices?

Is the SPP recovery going to hold and I guess the million dollar question will the overall economic outlook keep rising in spite of some dodgy fundamental stats still coming out esp. US markets
Dunno If I can help you, but, my take on them after buying in at $27.5 was to keep buying (2 more lots) as they dropped and as much as I could at the $13.50 allocation.
I've since sold the first 2 lots. at $19 and on Monday @ $23.75.

Holding the rest (over half of the total bought). If it goes to $28.5 I'll sell some. If it goes to ~$20. I'll buy some based on the events at the time.

No real urgency either way atm. jmo.

kennas

16th-July-2009, 03:59 AM

WES looks like it would have been a nice pick up off that bottom. Like a few stocks I suppose making 50-100% ish gains. Been sideways for the past couple of months but making some higher lows and hitting this general resistance area. Potential break up perhaps.

jono_oz

20th-August-2009, 02:48 PM

Hmmmmm QBE profit jumps 14% and the shares jump 7% .......

WES profit jumps 45% and its shares drop 4.5%.... hehehe I guess the share market is definately not logical in any way.

oldblue

20th-August-2009, 03:02 PM

Hmmmmm QBE profit jumps 14% and the shares jump 7% .......

WES profit jumps 45% and its shares drop 4.5%.... hehehe I guess the share market is definately not logical in any way.

It's all to do do with meeting expectations or not meeting them or exceeding them.

WES didn't and QBE did.

;)

ROE

20th-August-2009, 10:30 PM

Hmmmmm QBE profit jumps 14% and the shares jump 7% .......

WES profit jumps 45% and its shares drop 4.5%.... hehehe I guess the share market is definately not logical in any way.

All spins, the result is crab ..

$861M EBIT for Coles, that is a shocker you pay $16B odds for it
and you get 861 EBIT ..that 18 times EBIT, if you take out the Interest and Tax that goes something like 20-25 times Earning

they just waste a whole lot of money on Coles ... :D

if Coles cant growth 15% a year it's a lost cause

Ferret

21st-August-2009, 01:38 AM

Look what they built out of nothing with Bunnings. These guys know retailing. Give them some time and they'll pull it together for coles etc too.

lianeisme

21st-August-2009, 08:38 AM

:) Because they payed too much for the Coles asset in the first place, the income from that asset is very low, compared to the purchase price. It will take years for the value of the asset to meet the price originally paid. To put further pressure on WES. COSCOS is coming to town, WOW has been very aggressive and ALDDI is becoming more robust in the market place. Their Bunning’s chain really has no competitors at present.

Gekko

28th-August-2009, 01:24 PM

I have today entered a short position on Westfarmers. Stop-loss set at $26.80. PE around 24. Target ~$20.

MACCA350

28th-August-2009, 04:15 PM

I have today entered a short position on Westfarmers. Stop-loss set at $26.80. PE around 24. Target ~$20.Meanwhile WES closed up 2.33% to $25.50

There may be some pull back, but I don't see it dropping to $20, though I guess it is possible. Personally(I picked up a bunch of WES at $18 with a long term hold position) I'm not concerned.

cheers

airpoe

28th-August-2009, 11:36 PM

Meanwhile WES closed up 2.33% to $25.50

There may be some pull back, but I don't see it dropping to $20, though I guess it is possible. Personally(I picked up a bunch of WES at $18 with a long term hold position) I'm not concerned.

cheers
same here picked up 10k @ 18.80, looking long term & won't lose sleep over this purchase

I don't see why it would not go back to 40+ in the next few years

UMike

29th-August-2009, 10:08 AM

I only got my SPP shares left. @27.9 It'll be worth over 10 grand more than I paid for it.

I reckon It has more of a chance to hit at least that before $20.

Good luck to all holders. :D

Gekko

29th-August-2009, 09:49 PM

Meanwhile WES closed up 2.33% to $25.50

There may be some pull back, but I don't see it dropping to $20, though I guess it is possible. Personally(I picked up a bunch of WES at $18 with a long term hold position) I'm not concerned.

cheers

Macca, i buy what i like most, and short what i dislike or like least. Westfarmers comes into the later two categories. Apart from thinking its trading on too excessive a PE, its also risk management and hedging.

Gekko

30th-August-2009, 09:33 PM

Macca, i buy what i like most, and short what i dislike or like least. Westfarmers comes into the later two categories. Apart from thinking its trading on too excessive a PE, its also risk management and hedging.

Bunnings has for years been a money tree to Westfarmers. Michael Luscombe is going to give it his darnedest to erode the Westfarmers/Bunnings hardware monopoly.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2009/08/30/2670948.htm

Michael Luscombe has told ABC1's Inside Business there is one large-format hardware store for every 90,000 people in the United States.

He says there is one for every 120,000 in Auckland, but in Australia there is only one for every 230,000.

"There's a big gap there, there's a big opportunity for an alternative offer that just gives consumers a choice that they don't presently have," he said.

"Choice and competition is great."

rick62

5th-September-2009, 08:32 PM

May I ask a basic question please?
I've had WES since March. What is the "recording date" for dividends? If I sell them now do I still get the dividend due in some weeks time?
With thanks
Rick

noirua

5th-September-2009, 09:01 PM

rick62

5th-September-2009, 10:09 PM

Now thoroughly upset with Wesfarmers and completely lost confidence. Sold out at a 36% loss to buy a gold stock instead. Hope I'm wrong and they get Coles and their coal interests etc., etc., under control - good luck.

Record date for dividend is 31st August for payment of 60c a share on 1st October. Wend xd on 25th August.

Thanks Noirua. Seems I will get the dividend. Thinking of selling out and re-investing elsewhere. Haven't felt really comfortable with WES for some time. Maybe I am not patient enough...

The outlook on gold currently seems good. I bought GOLD some time back- still at a loss - but see no point in selling. Using it as a defense. If I live long enough maybe I'll make a reasonable profit............

Regards

Rick