AMP - AMP Limited

[sam21poddy]

AMP is trading higher today (up 2.5%) from a trading range of 5.20/5.35 up to 5.69. I can't see any news items on AMP. Why is it suddenly going up against the backdrop of a falling market? Does anyone know. Of course I sold my AMP yesterday for a miniscule profit after holding onto it for months waiting for it to rise so I missed out on making a decent profit by one day. :(

[stefan]

Of course I sold my AMP yesterday

Which then perfectly explains why AMP is going up. ;D

My next post will be more serious, I promise...

Happy trading

Stefan

[profithunter]

I think it might be on the back the AXA takeover talk. but thats just my opinion.

[stefan]

Market is expecting AMP to release a better than expected result this week. That has probably pushed up the price.

Happy trading

Stefan

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

AMP has had some bullish rallies over the last couple days...

On the T/A IMHO, AMP looks like it will rally up and against the $6.70 mark, and will take off again, currently i do belive this stock has some good fundamentals and people are begining to realise...

Current position, Stock Holding + 70% Margin Lend and AMP59 DEC $6.08 Calls, with a break above $6.50, and above $6.70, AMP, will could be confirming a very bullish medium term.. with a low risk...

T/A AMP is looking very bullish... looks like AMP is going back to better days...

Cheers,
sis

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

AMP, really wants to break that resistance, and with the current market, AMP is looking very bullish, with a break above $6.50, $6.70... a nice medium term showing a target of $7.00 is likely. Looks like anytime this week, this breakout will occur.

Cheers,
sis

[still_in_school]

AMP at $6.50 now..., though can it close above $6.50 today...?

Cheers,
sis

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

Happy Trading to those who bought Calls and shares on AMP....

(though i do believe there is going to be more upside for AMP, shortly.. talk of a take over shortly for AMP)

Cheers,
sis

[stefan]

There's this rumour that ANZ will put in a bid for AMP. So that's why it's going up. Sounds all very familiar with the NAB deal which eventually went nowhere but did drive the price up quite a bit.

Happy trading

Stefan

(Not holding AMP)

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

quick update on AMP T/A... next target region of $8.20.

Currently last trade at $7.09, have bought back in again, though currently just holding stock...

Cheers,
sis

[RichKid]

AMP has just come on my radar screen (I know, I know, where have I been while all the action has been taking place...).
Well since it's about to test $8 there should be some activity.

SIS, are you still holding? Any views? I think it may fall off a bit and then have another run at $8. Looks like a good stock for 2005.

[RichKid]

Well, the absence of an interest in a bid for HHG has seen AMP down a bit, let's see how far this goes before it resumes the uptrend.

[still_in_school]

Hi Richkid,

sorry currently not holding any AMP stock or options...

though am looking for a technical entry to go back long and see another retest of the $8.00 mark.. though, with stocks in the financial sector and banks, still with holding previous and new highs.. AMP is starting to near an oversold area for me..

AMP has a 50% retracement of $7.49 - $7.52, i have no specific entries as of yet.. but i do see a retest of the $8.00 mark again..

though AMP nearest support is at $7.25, if the retracement level fails.. AMP could fall as far as this support (technically i doubt this)

Also using some ganns method for retracement. (dow retracement)

$8.00 peak minus $7.03 = .93 cents

Halve .93 cents = .465 cents

$7.03 + 0.465 = $7.49

Technically IHMO, i would wait for a pullback of $7.49 - $7.52 before going long..

Other fundamental issues are.. AMP goes ex-dividend next month.. so another fundamental reason for AMP to appreciat and push up north again...

Cheers,
sis

[still_in_school]

Also forgot to mention, on the above chart, the blue line is the Trend line AMP is dancing along.. if you look closesly you will also notice that the trendline comes round in at about $7.49, with confirmation from fibonacci retracement, gann's retracement and the AMP trend line,

* $7.49 is a key and technical entry position... (still based on technical and positive momentum..)

Cheers,
sis

[RichKid]

Hi sis,
Good to hear from you, I omitted Gann analysis in my take on AMP but came up with similar levels to you (maybe a couple of cents difference here and there). My main concern is the current uptrend support (blue line on your chart), if it falls through that the next level is about 7.25 for horizontal support, if it goes through 7.25 then the next long term trend line is much lower (below $7 atm).

All in all, I reckon this one'll either keep chipping away at $8 starting tomorrow or may just drop back closer to 7.50 for a bit to test the recent trend support. Uptrend and imminent $8 resistance breakout and near div time are what made me look at AMP (also the positive market sentiment towards insurers, just a short term play for me atm).

Still waiting for that entry, a quick dip to 7.56 today before recovering (moderate volume), let's see how it goes...

[still_in_school]

Hi Richkid,

AMP technicals are looking very good at the moment, current stock price is $7.58 - $7.59

Still waiting and ready to pounce on the entry position. ($7.49 - $7.52)

** but, lol.. though im waiting here to pull the triger..

Cheers,
sis

ps.. entry could possibily be today or tomorrow, though.. still sitting and waiting patiently..

[still_in_school]

Oh look at the devil, AMP coming down very nicely $7.52 - $7.53

Cheers,
sis

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

Very Strong uptrend line for AMP.. (currently long with April $7.50 Calls)

So far AMP came to a low of $7.51 for today, though market depth is showing a very strong support at retracement, and at trend support level of $7.50

Currently 102 Buyers at $7.50 wishing to purchase in total 204,975 units.

Cheers,
sis

[RichKid]

Hi sis,
Yep, I've been watching that trend line too, the nervy market is timing it just right for before the profit annct on Thursday. I reckon it'll sit around the range of the last week or so and then react very strongly to the annct, all depends on if it's above expectations, market is certainly expecting very good news or it'll be disapointed.

Technically 7.50 was an ideal point to buy, I'd have my stops close though.

[RichKid]

Forgot to mention: notice that the candles were rejecting higher prices, with the last candle it is now rejecting lower prices, especially as prices near trend support. Still need an up day and some decent volume as well if possible.

[still_in_school]

Hi Richkid,

was just having a look at the long term charts of AMP, i do believe AMP will channel between $7.50 - $8.00, possibly for a short period of time, and possibly could be for the another 2 months..

in the chart below, sorry its unclear..

the chart has been subdivided into 3 month cycles (purple vertical lines)

there are fibonacci retracement lines, though there not clear on the chart..

AMP long 50% fibonacci retracement, is around the $4.00 mark.. though the consolidation on average is about 3 months.

just on some technical guessing, and not knowing how AMP will technically trade for the next few months, and $8.00 being the retracement, (and $4.00 being the 50% retracement) IMHO, $7.50 - $8.00 will most likely be the trading channel.. till we might see a break above this channel.

at the moment its all technical guessing, but also AMP today, created a new level of support at $7.55, it might be a long guess out.. but AMP does look due for a breather (consolidation)

Cheers,
sis

ps.. please only take my notes, as a suggestion, and that this is only a technical guess, and my technical analysis can and could be wrong..

[Bingo]

Usually when a stock is sold off like AMP has been over the last two days, with results being announced tomorrow, its smart money and you can bet the results will be lower than the market expects.

I am keen to see if AMP is as bad on leaks as the rest. If the results are a disappointment tomorrow then we can put AMP in the basket of insider trading companies.

Bingo

[RichKid]

Usually when a stock is sold off like AMP has been over the last two days, with results being announced tomorrow, its smart money and you can bet the results will be lower than the market expects.

I am keen to see if AMP is as bad on leaks as the rest. If the results are a disappointment tomorrow then we can put AMP in the basket of insider trading companies.

Bingo

Bingo, that's a very good reminder about how a price chart, according to TA theory, shows all that we need to know about a co. ie price discounts all. I often see Edwards&Magee refere to the price effect of insider trading, and that was over 50 years ago! Still continuing, but I wouldn't think it that common in bluechips today (eg CBA and TLS surprised), see it often in smaller co's.

My sentiments are the same as yours except with one proviso. Since there has been a lot of talk about AMP's strength (eg. special divs and share buy backs, debt repayments etc) maybe the insiders have decided the market may not react well to the news. ie news will be good but has been factored in, hence any annct tomorrow will have to be very good news (ie above expectations, a surprise). I saw a comment that AMP's profits are hard to value accurately due to the nature of its investment activities. I'll be watching closely, anyone know what time the annct is at?

Long term I am more or less with sis about a long term up trend interspersed with consolidation phases. Not sure if 7.50 will be support, I think a lot depends on tomorrow and whether the recent uptrend is going to be broken solidly or if it'll just hang around, $7.35 may be the more likely lower boundary if it starts to range judging by horizontal support. $8 is a very significant level imho, just look at the chart, that's where the rot really took hold. I would expect it to hang around near $8 once it breaks that resistance level but we'll have to reassess closer to that event. Was a bit surprised to see it fall so far today, good news is it rejected the low and closed a bit higher.

[RichKid]

An article from Bloomberg on AMP's expected profit, a bit conservative compared to the usual local press articles: http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=ajYu66SzWJm4&refer=australia

Wonder what time they'll announce it today?

[Bingo]

It's out and looks OK. Will now have a good read.

Bingo

[Bingo]

Result is higher than expected at $934M, dividend at 14c is in line with expectations and capital return at 40c slightly lower than expected. The big plus is they have flagged another capital return for 2006.

Should push the price up.

Bingo

[RichKid]

Hi Bingo,
Yes, appears to be above high end expectations and other news broadly in line with speculation, all depends on how the herd reacts, price was up a few percent in New Zealand trading early on. I guess it has to go up after yesterday's sell off.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000081&sid=af3YJIyj2wtg&refer=australia

[RichKid]

Well, well, well, AMP fell to 7.22 in first few minutes of open, a bit stronger now. The EOD prices will tell us what the overall opinion is, I would have thought prices would have gone higher.

[Bingo]

Opendown down at $7.32 which is more in line with my thinking late yesterday about the sell off. The result must have some ramification that are not clear from the superficial numbers. The experts will no doubt give us some idea today.

Bingo

[RichKid]

So, looks like the charts will tell us alot about future AMP movements, TA will be valuable on this one then. Gap down today is not promising. I'm still sticking to my earlier estimate in line with SIS's observations about consolidating in a broad range well below $8. Still have to say I'm a bit surprised by the low range of trading so far overall. Maybe the tough times ahead for the AllOrds will really crimp AMP's nearterm investment earnings.

Let me know please if you see any good analysis via any of the financial mags, most of the broadsheets just reword co anncts and jazz up any little bits of info.

Gone up to 7.40 now, I should stop looking at the screen now and wait for EOD (smart money) indicators. I've decided against an entry for the time being.

[Bingo]

Oh well, I've followed my gut felling and topped up my holding at $7.36. A bit more than gut I really feel that AMP will have a good year and the price looks good. Effectively $7.02 taking account of capital return (no tax) and dividend.

Bingo

[Bingo]

After I bought went to $7.10 and are now back over $7.50. Interesting change of heart.

[still_in_school]

keep pushing AMP.. go you little thing..

What a disaster this morning with AMP, excellent announcement, though market reaction different.. though AMP is a turn around story for today..

1. Gaps down on Open
2. Breaks Support $7.25
3. comes to a low of $7.10
4. Recovers - breaks resistance ($7.25
5. Resumes Primary Uptrend..

and finds support back at $7.50

What a turn around story.. geez..

** though im still relying heavily on technical analaysis, this morning AMP sell off should have never of happened, though technical, im still very strong on my technical views of where AMP is heading..

Go you good thing..

Cheers,
sis

[Bingo]

Moody's revises AMP ratings outlook
February 17, 2005 - 1:59PM


Ratings agency Moody's Investors Service has revised its outlook for AMP Ltd's ratings to positive from stable.

Moody's also affirmed all existing ratings, including AMP Group Holdings Ltd's A3 senior debt rating and AMP Life Ltd's Aa3 insurance financial strength rating.

The outlook revision follows AMP's release of its annual results for 2004.

Moody's said AMP demonstrated good improvements in its operating performance by producing a net profit of $934 million and a reduction in gearing to 27 per cent at the end of 2004 from 55 per cent at the end of 2003.

"The change in outlook reflects the expected continued ongoing improvements in AMP, following its return to its key strengths in the Australasian life and superannuation businesses," Moody's said.

"AMP has taken steps to improve its already strong brand, market position and financial strength.

"AMP is also well positioned for the challenges apparent in Australia's increasingly competitive financial services sector.

"It maintains a presence across the wealth management value chain, in particular a well diversified and extensive distribution approach and product offering."

AMP also announced that it would return about $750 million in capital to shareholders, as well as reduce its debt by returning $265 million to debtholders as it redeems its income securities.

"The proposed capital return to shareholders will be funded from the surplus with AMP Life, ultimately reducing the capitalisation of AMP Life," Moody's noted.

"Moody's believes that its financial strength will remain very strong, assuming it continues to maintain its profitability.

"AMP Life ultilises a robust, and recently improved, capital management methodology which ensures that a sufficient level of capital is maintained at all times in order manage its risk tolerance level."

Moody's said further positive ratings pressure would arise if AMP demonstrated its ability to continue growing profitability and maintaining market share into 2005.

[RichKid]

Technically I'm still a bit concerned about it closing below the recent uptrend support line. Fibonnacci and Gann lines may be more significant now. The rejection of lower prices in today's candle is positive but not conclusive judging by the last few candles that did the same. Understandably a lot of volume today. If results had been way above expectations I think AMP would have gone much higher instead of lower.

[Bingo]

AMP downgraded.

AMP
Broker: CSFB
Rating: Unchanged at UNDERPERFORM
Price: Price Target: $6.70

Comment: CSFB has left its recommendation on AMP at "underperform" despite what it calls a strong headline full-year profit result. The broker noted that despite buoyant markets, AMP's underlying result was only in line with forecasts. It also warns that the company faces significant growth hurdles through fee reductions and the loss of tax relief. "While AMP is continuing to make good progress in its cost reductions and growing funds flow above market share, the extent of the growth hurdles it faces is not being fully appreciated in the stock's current demanding share rating."


Bingo

[dam01]

i bought amp at 6.62 . Anyone have an idea where they might go?

[mime]

??

How could you buy it at $6.62? The market value didn't get above $6.58.

[DTM]

i bought amp at 6.62 . Anyone have an idea where they might go?

:2twocents

In my opinion, this is one of the stocks that fit Tech A's requirements for shorting. Its way below the 200 day moving average and I can only see it dropping further. I could be wrong.... :sly:

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Dam,

Why did you buy AMP? And why $6.62? What so you see in this stock?

Sorry I don't have any information for you, but I frrl I would only trade this stock when there is no gloom.

[rozella]

I was asked this question yesterday re AMP, so to save typing I will just copy the relevant part.


I have an emotional thing about AMP......meaning that I lost heavily with it on 5th May 2003, & vowed never to touch it again. My fault to some extent, but I still think they did the wrong thing, issuing all those shares to the institutions at a huge discount, leaving ordinary shareholders with a diluted value.

However with emotions aside, it announced the capital return of 40.0/share on 17th Feb this year, & it still continued to go down, then had a few of weeks upturn, then has been sliding down ever since. The ATO approved the tax ruling last week on the 4th May, & its down since then (dn 10.0 today).....the problem is its recovery after ex-entitlement day.....how long will it take if its going down on good news.

The return is good, especially with marginlending. Todays price (10th April) is 646.0, with a LVR of 70%, your investment would be 193.8/share, which would give a gross return of 20.64%. Usually the lure of the dividend gives a stock a reason to rise, but......it has not had any impressive upward moves yet. Maybe on 19th May when the shareholders vote for approval, but ex-entitlement is 20th May if approved.

You are on your own with this one....but one never knows, it might bolt in the last week.

Today (11th April) it rose 20.0, but hardly a blip on the chart.

rozella

[dam01]

amp price up to 6.88. Think i should hold, or get out while i am in front.

[dam01]

anyone been watching amp? they rose 4.8% today. Think they could higher in the near future?

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Andrew Mohl of AMP seemed to think they were valued at $7.20 in Feb. I can't remember exactly what was stated. ;)

[RichKid]

anyone been watching amp? they rose 4.8% today. Think they could higher in the near future?

Dam01, please do not create duplicate threads on AMP, from your post in the proper AMP thread it is clear that you are aware of its existence. I will now merge this thread with the existing one.

[ob1kenobi]

Seems a reasonable stock. Certainly on the improve and the analysts seem to be rejoicing at its return to blue chip status. I'm inclined to keep it on the watch list a bit longer.

:)

[Sultan of Swing]

Has anyone got any thoughts on AMP?

I've been holding for 18 months and have a reasonable profit but the growth prospects don't look very exciting but the return on equity is good at 28.8%. I'm still trying to get a handle on all the fundemantals. :rolleyes:

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Has anyone got any thoughts on AMP?

I've been holding for 18 months and have a reasonable profit but the growth prospects don't look very exciting but the return on equity is good at 28.8%. I'm still trying to get a handle on all the fundemantals. :rolleyes:

From a technical perspective I see that it may have been distributing since May.

[laurie]

With this being the final capital return for now what will happen with the money AMP will have? does it means bigger dividends unless they have other companies in their sights which I thought was not on the agenda :confused:

cheers laurie

[PhoenixXx]

Hardly anyone discuss about AMP here as it "used" to be a stable share with the daily movement range of less than 1%. But due to the subprime impact, 2-3%movement a day had been common lately. Now the SP is slumping close to the last significant support at $9. Besides the issues that we have been familiar with (subprime, US stagflation, RBA will lift up interest rate), does anyone have any idea what's happening to AMP? Thx

[thevadd]

All I know is todays recommendation ABN Amno as follows:
ABN Amro rates AMP as Buy - Target $11.55 (was $11.45). Factoring in the recently announced sale of Cobalt/Gordian sees the broker lift its dividend expectations for the company by 2c per share for each of the next four payments.
This pushes up its price target slightly and sees the broker maintaining its Buy rating.


Target price is $11.55 Current Price is $9.31 Difference:$2.24 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AMP meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. ABN Amro forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 46.50 cents and EPS of 55.60 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.74.

[thevadd]

I am keen to get some in AGF which is AMP's capital growth fund invested in Chinese market. The current price is $1.53
The fund invests in over 1,300 shares listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges.

[PhoenixXx]

I am keen to get some in AGF which is AMP's capital growth fund invested in Chinese market. The current price is $1.53
The fund invests in over 1,300 shares listed on the Shanghai or Shenzhen stock exchanges.

AMP 'was' and probably 'is' still my favorite. And i also hold some AGF. Based on the today's announcement, AGF is currently valued at $2.14 or ex distribution $2.01. As if subprime issue didn't affect it. With last year September's NAV of $2.10, the SP skyrocketed to as high as $2.15.

[Garpal Gumnut]

All I know is todays recommendation ABN Amno as follows:
ABN Amro rates AMP as Buy - Target $11.55 (was $11.45). Factoring in the recently announced sale of Cobalt/Gordian sees the broker lift its dividend expectations for the company by 2c per share for each of the next four payments.
This pushes up its price target slightly and sees the broker maintaining its Buy rating.


Target price is $11.55 Current Price is $9.31 Difference:$2.24 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If AMP meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

The company's fiscal year ends in December. ABN Amro forecasts a full year FY07 dividend of 46.50 cents and EPS of 55.60 cents. At the last closing share price the estimated dividend yield is 4.99%. At the last closing share price the stock's estimated Price to Earnings Ratio (PER) is 16.74.

I would never follow a broker's recommendation on AMP due to their excellent record of being totally and absolutely wrong on its direction and target prices in the past.

I am fortunate in being a long term investor and being in and out of AMP at the correct times. This is due to luck as much as science.

I am presently out of AMP.

What I do feel strongly is that this is not the time to be buying AMP.

I enclose a weekly chart back to 1998.

Next support is $9.00.

If it goes through that , then $6.50 to $7.00.

After that its same old same old, back to under $4 or $3.

gg

[nitpra]

I recken brokers will also apply common/advanced technical analysis in their studies when recommeding a stock isnt it ?

[tronic72]

"What I do feel strongly is that this is not the time to be buying AMP."

I enclose a weekly chart back to 1998.

Next support is $9.00.....

Bought at $9 today which is very close AMP's yearly low. I can't see it dropping further.

[PhoenixXx]

"What I do feel strongly is that this is not the time to be buying AMP."

I enclose a weekly chart back to 1998.

Next support is $9.00.....

Bought at $9 today which is very close AMP's yearly low. I can't see it dropping further.

Well...that's what i 'believed'. But if it doesn't hold $9 (today's closing simply reveals that), then as Garpal stated...couldn't imagine where the next support would be. AMP used to be suitable for safe CFD player, but 3% drop in a day has become common lately.

[Garpal Gumnut]

Well...that's what i 'believed'. But if it doesn't hold $9 (today's closing simply reveals that), then as Garpal stated...couldn't imagine where the next support would be. AMP used to be suitable for safe CFD player, but 3% drop in a day has become common lately.

The following chart is posted not to add to your pain but to ponder where the large money has been over the last month or so.
As a general rule I have noted that it is worthwhile buying AMP when the brokers advise to sell and selling when they advise to buy.

This chart shows that since mid December 2007 most large movements have been out of AMP.

The minor uptrend over Christmas was on pitiful volume. Today approx $120million worth of AMP was traded and $9 was breached. Large instos may have been buoying the price up over Christmas and NY before offloading it in the past week or so.

So price goes down on increasing volume and up on decreasing volume = price
likely to continue down.

I cannot predict, wish I could , but refer to my previous post above to see support areas.

gg

[tronic72]

Well...that's what i 'believed'. But if it doesn't hold $9 (today's closing simply reveals that), then as Garpal stated...couldn't imagine where the next support would be. AMP used to be suitable for safe CFD player, but 3% drop in a day has become common lately.

For the record I was agreeing with your sentiments. I looked at AMP and it was static until 3PM at which time I purchased at $9.00. Who in their right might would have predicted that the price would start falling like it did.

Unfortunately if I had my time again I would probably still have purchased when I did. I'm not sure what it says for my picks that my portfolio consisted of two of the best and two of the worst performers of the day.

SDL, AMP & AWC (Worst)
HGI & PDN (Best)

At least I finished the day up.

[Buster]

Ouch..

Opened @ 8.76 this morning and closed on day low of 8.50..

Could get messy. Like others here, I couldn't hazard a guess at where the next stop will be.. Hopefully 8.50..:)

It certainly looks attractive at that price though..

Regards,

Buster

[LRG]

The insurance industry is doing it tough. AMP hasn't moved much from $10 for a year, so below $9 it is not looking like a stock that is going anywhere in the med - long term. It may see some more down side in first half of 08. :banghead:

[overule]

One thing i noticed is that brokers keep recommending this stock as buy when the price keeps dropping. Just like BNB, i think ones should hold.

[ROE]

Just remember Brokers main interest is to generate trading for their clients, the more you buy and sell the more fee they make :D

[laurie]

The insurance industry is doing it tough. AMP hasn't moved much from $10 for a year, so below $9 it is not looking like a stock that is going anywhere in the med - long term. It may see some more down side in first half of 08. :banghead:

Depends why you hold them! AMP has been a good source of dividends and capital returns for me, if you are after sp growth then maybe not :2twocents

cheers laurie

[ROE]

Lot of volume on AMP today anyone know what's up? double the average volume of around 9-10M shares last couple of weeks..the last time the volume hit this big is in Feb 14.

On Feb 14 it was a seller market..this time it's a buyer market :D

Tempted to let go and get a nice profit :) but I'm holding cos I like my AMP dividend and there are no better stock to put my money into.

[jurn]

Lot of volume on AMP today anyone know what's up? double the average volume of around 9-10M shares last couple of weeks..the last time the volume hit this big is in Feb 14.

On Feb 14 it was a seller market..this time it's a buyer market :D

Tempted to let go and get a nice profit :) but I'm holding cos I like my AMP dividend and there are no better stock to put my money into.

Its been mentioned before that it might be because of options expiry day. Lots of other shares have increased volume today too.

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/pdf/2008.pdf

[kennas]

Its been mentioned before that it might be because of options expiry day. Lots of other shares have increased volume today too.

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/pdf/2008.pdfYep, options expiry.

So, what's the go with AMP? What exposure do they have to bad credit? Major investments in anything that's gone pear shaped.

I haven't seen any, so is it's fall just a confidence in the industry thing? Sentiment? Surely if their only exposure is to the general market downturn they will be worth looking at when a potential bottom is found in the market?

Been stated in the financial pages on numerous ocassions that they would be a good fit with NAB. Any thoughts on that?

I originally got a few of these in the float due to a couple of life insurance policies and managed to sell out around $20. Fhew! :)

Not really trending back up yet.

[Rainmaker2000]

I would not think AMP has any exposure at all to subprime.....AMP is practically a retailer of investment products so its price has fallen at a time that the value of investment products (eg. shares) have fallen also.....

Their key metric would be Funds under management, which literally depreciates when stocks depreciate.......add to that all the bellhops getting nervous cause stocks are going down, which of course means 'you should not invest in stocks cause they are risky'.

I'm a fan of this sector in the longer haul however as the sector has 'legislated' growth and incredibly good 'economics'...

[ROE]

I bought a nice chunk of AMP when it trades below $7.
this is good stock that get hit by association with financial market :D

Bear market is great :D as soon as I identified stock that get a bad hit by association I'm loading it up.

[ROE]

Yep, options expiry.

So, what's the go with AMP? What exposure do they have to bad credit? Major investments in anything that's gone pear shaped.

I haven't seen any, so is it's fall just a confidence in the industry thing? Sentiment? Surely if their only exposure is to the general market downturn they will be worth looking at when a potential bottom is found in the market?

Been stated in the financial pages on numerous ocassions that they would be a good fit with NAB. Any thoughts on that?

I originally got a few of these in the float due to a couple of life insurance policies and managed to sell out around $20. Fhew! :)

Not really trending back up yet.

good call getting out of AMP at $20 :D I would do the same..well I have a ceiling when my stock reach potential and I'm getting out and wait and wait and wait :D

[oldblue]

I hope you're right about AMP's lack of exposure to the sub-prime bug.
I'd have thought that any fund manager involved with international fixed interest/mortgage bonds or equity funds has the potential to find some, possibly indirect exposure there, eg the US investment banks, mortgage insurers etc.
Bear Stearns shares, anyone?

:o

[prawn_86]

I know my old man loaded up on these guys in 2003 when they were under $4

He sold them last year when they were ranging between $10 and $11, as they never actuyally broke $11 so he bailed.

Very good timing for him, and i think that was one of his best invstments to date.

I might have to remind him about them again if they drop below $7 again

[oldblue]

Talking of AMP and NAB, didn't the latter have a go at taking over AMP a few years back?
I forget the details but from memory it was badly handled and didn't get past first base.

:confused:

[ROE]

I hope you're right about AMP's lack of exposure to the sub-prime bug.
I'd have thought that any fund manager involved with international fixed interest/mortgage bonds or equity funds has the potential to find some, possibly indirect exposure there, eg the US investment banks, mortgage insurers etc.
Bear Stearns shares, anyone?

:o

AMP made most of their money from financial planning, superannuation, managed funds and insurance.

If they have any exposure to sub prime it would be their fund under management and even if they do it's other people money and they still pocket the fees maybe not the performance bonus fee but basic fees.

Having said that I know AMP has been very conservative since the UK venture disaster which is a good thing for them.. they are taking thing nice and slow these days (organic growth rather than M&A) so I be shock if they have any on their balance sheet.

[oldblue]

I agree with all that, ROE.
AMP is now probably the most conservatively managed stock in the wider financial sector.
Just making the point that an exposure doesn't have to be on balance sheet to inflict damage on a stock.

:)

[kennas]

May have found a bottom here IMO. Higher high and low by the look. Dodgy inverse H&S target just under 9 bucks on a break through 8 which should happen today on the overseas action.

[MRC & Co]

I agree Kennas and ROE (on the technicals and fundamentals respectively).

I bought in today on the strong divergence of the XFJ to the XMJ. Time for another slosh of funds from one to the other.

[ROE]

Anyone reckon AMP could be a target for a big banks ?

There isnt much choice left for big banks if westpac & st george merge
and manage to cut cost and increase margin.. that would be a real threat for NAB and the smallest of them all ANZ (The four Pillars).

there are only Bendio, BoQ, Adelaide bank, Suncorp and AMP so it's first mover advantage that westpac has over her rival in grab st george.

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, definately could be a target.

BEN, BOQ, SUN in the same boat. (I beleive Bendigo and Adelaide bank are now the same: BEN).

NAB, CBA and ANZ will surely be out on the hunt.

[YELNATS]

NAB, CBA and ANZ will surely be out on the hunt.

Or any of these 3 could make a counterbid for SGB. Even if they weren't successful it could force an even higher price from WBC, which could give them some consulation.

[Garpal Gumnut]

It took AMP 4 years, mid 2003 to go from $3 to $10.

How long will it take for it to go back under $3 ? In the past AMP falls quicker than it goes up.

And the volume has increased since it started this most recent downtrend.

This is a weekly chart over the past few years for AMP. Its in a convincing down trend.

gg

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, it's not looking the best technically hey GG!

However, I still like it's fundamentals, not to mention, in a great demographic!

Can't say I can bring myself to short such a solid company.

[solomon]

AMP made most of their money from financial planning, superannuation, managed funds and insurance.

If they have any exposure to sub prime it would be their fund under management and even if they do it's other people money and they still pocket the fees maybe not the performance bonus fee but basic fees.


I'm not a holder, so just a thought or two for the mix.

If the market value of AMP's funds under management (fum) drops by 20% then they collect fees on 20% less fum which means fees drop by approx. 20%.

AMP make money when their investments backing insurance sales makes more than they have to pay out on claims. They aren't making money here, but losing it at the moment.

We aren't just in a bear market, we are in a financial collapse. So if Aussies ever start saving, they are going to be a little shy of giving their money to a financial - which impedes AMP's growth and so warrants a stock re-rating, and Aussies may well be shy of putting those hard earned $ into share markets because of the recent negative returns, so there is less money pushing market prices up including AMP's. :2twocents

caveat: NFA - DYOR

[prawn_86]

Well i waded in and picked some up today. A couple days earlier would have been nice, but this is a 5+ year hold for me.

I think their earnings will hold up fairly well as they get 9% pa flowing in from SG contributions and they are well managed. Div yeild over 8%, so even if that is maintained for the next 2 yrs and then starts to grow again i'll be happy. :)

First long term purchase since the bear began.

[MRC & Co]

Not sure about the long-term future of the global economies, but AMP is one of the safer companies. Definately one of the better buys out there.

[brettc4]

I have been holding AMP for a couple of years now. I bought it for the dividend and that has been good, along with a couple 40c capital returns has meant that even with the drop, this one is still good for me.

Would be nice for the SP to be a little higher though :)

[prawn_86]

I have been holding AMP for a couple of years now. I bought it for the dividend and that has been good, along with a couple 40c capital returns has meant that even with the drop, this one is still good for me.


What was the go with those capital returns brett?

They were done through the tax office right? I couldnt find too much info on them, but i must admit i didnt look into them fully. Was it the last 3 yrs they issued them?

[brettc4]

I believe it was over 3 years, but I only got the last two.

They were paid as a special dividend but they had a ruling from the Tax office which said, you could take the 40 cents of your original purchase price. So it wasn't counted as income at the time, but meant you were up for it as a Capital gain when you sold, but obviously if you held it for more than 12 months you got the 50% discount.

So all in all, a very nice little surprise with deferred tax.

Brett

[prawn_86]

I believe it was over 3 years, but I only got the last two.

They were paid as a special dividend but they had a ruling from the Tax office which said, you could take the 40 cents of your original purchase price. So it wasn't counted as income at the time, but meant you were up for it as a Capital gain when you sold, but obviously if you held it for more than 12 months you got the 50% discount.

So all in all, a very nice little surprise with deferred tax.

Brett

Ok so hypothetical:

You purchased at $8, got 2 of the capital returns, when it came to selling you would claim you bought them for $7.20. Have i got that right?

Or was there an option to take the cash just as a dividend?

[brettc4]

You purchased at $8, got 2 of the capital returns, when it came to selling you would claim you bought them for $7.20. Have i got that right?Exactly.
My accountant found it out, so I imagine a number would have put it as income on their tax return, I am not sure of the ATO took it, or modified their return and told then to take it off their buying costs.

[JTLP]

Prawn that surprises me that you purchased now. I just flicked open the chart and although i'm sure the whole index is ugly...amp hasn't really convinced me its in any sort of bottoming phase or uptrend...

Also GG provided some good analysis on what happens to AMP along certain trend lines...I think its a few pages back...

[prawn_86]

Prawn that surprises me that you purchased now. I just flicked open the chart and although i'm sure the whole index is ugly...amp hasn't really convinced me its in any sort of bottoming phase or uptrend...

Also GG provided some good analysis on what happens to AMP along certain trend lines...I think its a few pages back...

Yeh i did look at GGs charts and he makes a good point. But i did my calcs and research and am happy with my entry price.

Obviously i have no idea what the markets will do in the short term, but hopefully holding for 5 - 10 yrs if it goes down another 10% or so in the short term it wont really matter in the long run.

I bought this more for yeild than for 'trend' as such.

[prawn_86]

Wow, something put a rocket under these guys this arvo. Is it just confidence returning? (until the DOW tanks again)...

I now have to decide if i turn this into a short term trade and run a trailing stop. I certainly didnt expect it to move this much so quickly...

Decisons, decisons. :confused:

[YELNATS]

Ok so hypothetical:

You purchased at $8, got 2 of the capital returns, when it came to selling you would claim you bought them for $7.20. Have i got that right?

Or was there an option to take the cash just as a dividend?

Hi Prawn,

I've been a holder of AMP since their demutualisation in 1998.

AMP have had 3 capital returns in recent times.

From their website:

Quote

Capital returns
Payment date Record date Amount per share
18 June 07 25 May 07 40 cents
19 June 06 25 May 06 40 cents
16 June 05 26 May 05 40 cents

The Australian Taxation Office (ATO) has confirmed that capital returns will be treated as a reduction in the cost base of AMP shares, and not as a dividend, for Australian income tax purposes. A copy of the class ruling can be accessed on the ATO website www.law.ato.gov.au.

ie. this means no potential capital gains tax is payable unless and until you sell the shares in which case your cost base is reduced by one, two or three multiples of 40 cents, depending when you acquired the shares.

There was no option to take the amounts as a "normal" dividend.

As far as I know, AMP has no immediate plans to make further capital returns.

regards yn

[prawn_86]

Thanks YN.

Any explanation for the price jump today? Rally was especially strong towards slose and in the end of day auction.

[prawn_86]

AMP looking to raise $00 mill through SPP.

My question is why?

Price not yet finalised, but im thinking i might take a small profit on this one and look to enter once the placement is over, as they generally halt momentum of stocks from my experience.

[kennas]

My question is why?
Yeah beats me Prawn, hardly an explanation in the ann either..


AMP is making the placement to enhance its capital position and increase business flexibility through the ongoing market turbulence.

enhance and be flexible? :confused:

Maybe they should just go to the gym.....


Looks like you might get a cheap allocation though.

[bloomy88]

I hold AMP stocks and saw they want to raise the $400 million in institutional placement.
What does that mean for their shareholders?
Do we get the first option to buy more shares?
Is this a good or bad sign for the company?

Any thoughts would be appreciated

Cheers

[kennas]

I hold AMP stocks and saw they want to raise the $400 million in institutional placement.
What does that mean for their shareholders?
Do we get the first option to buy more shares?
Is this a good or bad sign for the company?

Any thoughts would be appreciated

CheersMaybe you should read the announcement bloomy?

:confused:

AMP also plans to offer Australian and New Zealand retail shareholders the opportunity to subscribe for up to A$5,000 of AMP shares through a Share Purchase Plan (SPP). The SPP price will be the lower of the institutional placement price or a 2.5 per cent discount to the average market price (volume weighted average price) during a period to be determined. Other details of the SPP are currently being finalised. A maximum of $100 million will be raised under this plan.

[prawn_86]

Price not yet finalised, but im thinking i might take a small profit on this one and look to enter once the placement is over, as they generally halt momentum of stocks from my experience.

Well there goes that idea.

Trading halt now. I guess its to do with the placement to the instos.

I do have faith in AMP, its just the prices tend to stagnate when a AMP is happening so i could put my money to better use elsewhere is my thinking.

[prawn_86]

Down 4% on open. Saw that coming.

I wouldnt be surprised if it went down to about $5.39 which is the issue price to the insto's. They raised $450mill, so lets hope they put it to good use now. Perhaps a capital return next year ;)

[brettc4]

We ended the day at $5.89, so only a 9 cent drop.

Can someone please expand my education?
They have placed $450m with institutions, and possible anoter $100m with a SPP.
Shares outstanding in Dec 2007 was 1,849,000,000. This $550m will potentially add 102,000,000 shares @ $5.39

So immediately, they have a profit, but does this dilution of the share holding really affect me? It is possible that they will reduce the dividend due to these new shares? Does it affect me in any other way?

Cheers

[prawn_86]

Brett, placements are complicated, with good arguements both for and against.

The positive factors are:
They now have more cash and if used wisely can increase future earnings.

Negative:
In % terms you now own less of the company (dilution), even if you take up your full amount in the placement, you will still own less due to instos getting some.

[ROE]

hmm I dont like it
I got AMP shares and I don't like any placement at all ..
I prefer buy back.

The day I buy any stock I want them to buy back 10% outstanding shares :D

[drsmith]

The directors statement in relation to the final 2008 dividend in the third Q report is not the most positive I have ever read.


Their caution however may be due purely to the current economic environment and lingering memories of the near death experience back in 2003.

[Timestar]

A big concern with falling unit vales and subsequent lower fees etc. Seems more like a $4.10 - 4.25 stock. Not buying yet.

[prawn_86]

Broke down below support at $5 today.

I wonder how much lower its going...? And do i sell now hoping to buy at a lower price later? Oh the decisons.......

[drsmith]

This is very much a case where I'd like to have the day back when they were over $10.

Oh the pain! the pain!

[prawn_86]

This is very much a case where I'd like to have the day back when they were over $10.

Oh the pain! the pain!

I only bought at about 5.40, so do i cop a 10% loss and wait for it to fall further, or do i stick to my long term hold for yeild, which was the original purchase reason?

Im thinking the latter. If i can get 6% yeild (allowing for div cut) thats more than any bank is giving at the moment

[prawn_86]

Getting absolutely smashed today for no apparent reason. Down about 7%.

Perhaps all those holders have decided the yeild is not attractive enough, a week after the news came out... :confused:

[kennas]

This looks promising.

Breaking through that $5.50 ish zone will be a good long term signal perhaps.

A sort of an inverse H&S in there as well.

[Uncle Festivus]

In the good ol days this would be prime takeover material?

[kennas]

In the good ol days this would be prime takeover material?The last time I heard of any M&A with this one was a potential NAB hook up. Was just speculation in a newspaper though.

[Garpal Gumnut]

I bought some AMP last week and may do so again tomorrow.

Something is up.

That last bar looks like insiders buying up ahead of an announcement.

gg

[Garpal Gumnut]

I just don't know what to make of today's price action. a few states I believe had holidays. The pattern is still bullish. I'm not a candlestick person but that last bar could be indecision. I just don't know. Any ideas?


gg

[kennas]

I just don't know what to make of today's price action. a few states I believe had holidays. The pattern is still bullish. I'm not a candlestick person but that last bar could be indecision. I just don't know. Any ideas?

ggI can't get it up on my charts at the moment for some reason, but it's clsoe to a bearish harami in candlestick language, which is a potential reversal pattern. It's not clear on your chart though. Lower volume, so nothing really sinister imo, maybe just indecision. Still longer term bullish while above $5.50 I reckon.

[Miner]

I can't get it up on my charts at the moment for some reason, but it's clsoe to a bearish 'harami' in candlestick language, which is a potential reversal pattern. It's not clear on your chart though. Lower volume, so nothing really sinister imo, maybe just indecision. Still longer term bullish while above $5.50 I reckon.

Hey Kennas

What is meant by harami ?

Is it an English word or a technical jargon in candle stick charting ?

For those have worked in Middle East or South Asia would agree that the word harami meant bastard.

Not joking since I am unaware of the terminology of candle stick

Regards

[kennas]

Hey Kennas

What is meant by harami ?

Is it an English word or a technical jargon in candle stick charting ?

For those have worked in Middle East or South Asia would agree that the word harami meant bastard.

Not joking since I am unaware of the terminology of candle stick

RegardsI think it means pregnant in Japanese. Not sure why the formation is called pregnant. Bit odd. If it's a large candle followed by a doji it's called a harami cross. A pregnant cross?

[Buster]

Hey GG,


I bought some AMP last week and may do so again tomorrow.

Something is up.

That last bar looks like insiders buying up ahead of an announcement.

Looks like your suspicion was right on the money.. up more than 4% this morning..

Regards,

Buster

[kennas]

This looks promising.

Breaking through that $5.50 ish zone will be a good long term signal perhaps.

A sort of an inverse H&S in there as well.Looks like a good break. Wary of an over market pull back. Things have gone a bit crazy. Would be nice if that H&S is valid. :)

[Uncle Festivus]

Like a lot of stocks, looking a tad overbought? Closed longs, now short..

[ROE]

the higher the market goes the better AMP will become due to the sheer size of fund under management :D and hello Mr 1% and 2% fee :)

[prawn_86]

Results out and they have declared a 14c 50% franked interim dividend.

Still yielding about 5.5% from my buy in price on dividends alone so im happy with that. :)

[GumbyLearner]

Ewehh! That sounds ugly I'm going to go short on these!

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssFinancialServicesAndRealEstateNews/idUSSYD11882720090917

SYDNEY, Sept 17 (Reuters) - Australian unlisted property manager AMP Capital Wholesale Office Fund is in discussion with investors to raise A$300 million ($263 million) in two consecutive note issues to repay debt, it said.

"It's not really a typical debt issuance, it is targeted at quasi-equity investors," Henry Elliott, who manages the fund, said.

To participate in the offer, investors have to commit to participate in both tranches, he said.

The issue will consist of two parts. The first note will pay a fixed rate coupon with a maturity of up to 20 months. Upon redemption, it will be immediately followed by a second series of floating rate notes with maturities between 6 and 9 years, paying distributions mirroring those received by equity holders.

Elliott, who did not give more details on the coupons, said marketing of the notes has started in August with plans to close the offer around November or December.

The issue, arranged by AMP Capital, a unit of Australian fund manager AMP Group (AMP.AX), will target funds of funds and pension fund investors in Australia and offshore.

The fund is expected to be rated A-minus by S&P but the notes will not be rated.

[drsmith]

I note the DRP for the current dividend is 70% underwritten which suggests to me that the directors are not entirely comfortable with capital position of the current balance sheet.

[kennas]

I'm invested in AMP as a blind fundamental pick based on factors I do not understand.

Bought in because of the break through 5.50 longer term breakout only which I identified earlier with the inverse H&S clear.

$7.00 looks tough, $8.00 even moreso.

When the market falls over again (likely) watch out.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I'm invested in AMP as a blind fundamental pick based on factors I do not understand.

Bought in because of the break through 5.50 longer term breakout only which I identified earlier with the inverse H&S clear.

$7.00 looks tough, $8.00 even moreso.

When the market falls over again (likely) watch out.

Kennas,

What's making you think the market will fall over again, and what do you mean by fall over? A pullback? A lower and longer drop?

[kennas]

Kennas,

What's making you think the market will fall over again, and what do you mean by fall over? A pullback? A lower and longer drop?Unless the governments start paying off debt, increase rates, allow companies to fail for being crap, and start some regulation of lending practices and opaque financial instruments tied to debt, we'll just fall in the poo again, this time with even more debt. I can't see governments trying to find a way out, just digging us a bigger hole. Fingers crossed they find a way. In the mean time, with all this cash floating about, it has to find a home somewhere. Equities up! For now.

[lukeaye]

flip the image kennas, nearly a perfect head and shoulders. i think this stock has some upside maybe ready for wave 5.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Unless the governments start paying off debt, increase rates, allow companies to fail for being crap, and start some regulation of lending practices and opaque financial instruments tied to debt, we'll just fall in the poo again, this time with even more debt. I can't see governments trying to find a way out, just digging us a bigger hole. Fingers crossed they find a way. In the mean time, with all this cash floating about, it has to find a home somewhere. Equities up! For now.
Thanks Kennas for the clarification.

Keeping lending open and accessible is important for the economy.

Cheers..

[bloomy88]

Any opinions on AMP's announcement of the AXA asia pacific takeover?

If it goes ahead it would turn AMP into the powerhouse of Australia and New Zealand's superannuation, wealth management, risk insurance and retirement income. This would further leverage AMP to a global upturn, but provide more risk if the world economy double dips.
AMP also acquire AXA with no debt since AMP SA(the French parent company with 53% of shares) would bear the debt in exchange for AXA's Asian operations.

Will be interesting to see how it plays out but the fact AXA SA is in support is a big plus...

Disc: Holding AMP

[Datsun Disguise]

The Asian operations are the attractive part of the business in my view - growth potential there far outstrips the A&NZ business. The parent company has been looking to get their hands on the asian assest of AXA APH for some years - but not interested in the Aussie/Kiwi market.

I'd be a bit hesitant taking on an acquisition in this space given the regulatory uncertainty in the financial services area - they could just be buying themselves a bigger headache once the henry and cooper reviews are finished...

AMP would be a juggernaut though... and if they then looked to concentrate on expanding their banking arm....

The aus Governemtn is not keen on Australia losing exposure to investment in the region either, could also be some problerms there to overcome.

[bloomy88]

AMP got a bit of a run on later in the day, after closing at $5.87 yesterday early in the day it fell to $5.66 but ended the day up 4.26% to $6.12.

Maybe once investors got to look at the proposal they thought it was a good deal for AMP...

[laurie]

Dilution .......... is that going to be a problem especially with dividends which is why I hold it has been a good cash cow for me :D

cheers laurie

[bloomy88]

Yeah dilution could be an issue with dividends in the near term.
I beleive in the announcement AMP said they were going to maintain their payout ratio of 70-80% but that still means that dividends can drop if EPS drops as a result of the new shares issued in the takeover.

What is the percentage of AMP's current shares on issue are they offering to AXA shareholders?

[prawn_86]

Im an AMP holder also, and i can see both the pros and cons. Here are my random thoughts...

Pros: Create a finance powerhouse within Aus. Will be one of the largest super providers/managers around. AMP has always been fairly low risk, steady performer, hopefully they can bolt on fairly easily.

Cons: Reduction of divs (probably), integration problems, prolonged takeover offer creating stagnant share price.

Even AMP have said that it will take 2 years for the acquisition to pay off, so i guess its just a matter of deciding if your willing to wait that long and see how it turns out in say 5 years time...

[bloomy88]

Even AMP have said that it will take 2 years for the acquisition to pay off, so i guess its just a matter of deciding if your willing to wait that long and see how it turns out in say 5 years time...

Yeah agree with the fact that it is definately going to be a long-term prospect rather than a short-term one.
To combine these two large businesses will require significant expenditure. In the announcement AMP said that they will benefit $250million from operational synergies but I cant see those synergies taking effect straight away.
The other risk of the takeover is if AXA employees/management who actually made the company so profitable leave and then AMP isn't actually getting what they paid for.

There are a lot of factors involved in the process but I still beleive that in the long-term it is going to make AMP a very powerful (and profitable) company

[doctorj]

From AMP's perspective, it's great. You take out your main competitor at a bargain price (1.2x EV is pretty good value historically and even today).

Australia is one of the few western markets with stable regulation, an established savings culture AND population growth. Hurrah for AMP.

On the other hand, AXA Group is getting a hold of fast growing Asian assets for something like 1.6x EV. A beachhead in China (and most importantly established distribution channels) on which to grow. AXA Asia Pacific Holders are the one getting a bad deal in all this.

Even a new bid that values the Asian assets at 2.0x EV would be getting it on the cheap IMHO. I can't see AXA Asia Pacific holding AXA off a second time...

[bloomy88]

Based on AMP's SP close last night, AMP is now offering AXA $5.68 in consideration for each share.
Getting very close to Richard Allert's (AXA Chairman) 'close top the mark' figure of $6.
I wonder what will happen if AMP's SP keeps rising over the next couple of weeks? AMP might not have to re-sumbmit a better offer....

[laurie]

AMP cleared to take over AXA NAB blocked by ACCC should stop others like NAB entering the fray :2twocents

laurie

[Garpal Gumnut]

If you buy AMP at $4 and sell at $6 you will never go wrong.

This stock has an uncanny ability to disappoint believers in its long term ability to provide consistent divis and capital appreciation.

gg

[sptrawler]

Well this could be an interesting one with the Cooper report out.
It will be interesting to see how the industry funds go now that there is a "level playing field" in the past they only had to offer low fee products. Now they have to offer low fee products that perform. Just passing on their members funds to master trusts and then charging low fees for doing so will be challenged by retail funds that say they supply the research to their members. Time will tell but now the government has put the acid on the sector, I don't think the industry funds will be given a free ride.:D
You can only ride on the shirt tails for so long, the banks(master trusts) will start and charge for their costs.
I may be completely wrong as these are only assumptions.

[prawn_86]

I am patiently waiting for sub $5 prices and will then be buying more again. yeild at those levels is good, and as Garpul has pointed out, it tends to have long term cycles between $4 and $6