Here's a list of some tip sheets (info from early this year). There's another thread on FatProphets in these forums- got me thinking might be good to share experiences with different tip sheets in a new thread. Fat Prophets deserves their own thread IMHO as they are the most open media wise (do a Google search...) and the topic is already going.
The thing to remeber is that most tipsheets give only their best performers to the media to prove how good they are. If only they could all be asked (by ASIC maybe) to have a uniform, audited performance table to help us compare.
Don't forget Shares magazine....it LOOKS like a magazine, but around 1/3 is really a tips sheet :)
I like watching the effects of a mention in Shares or a closely followed tip sheet like the Rivkin report on the smaller cap stocks. It can be quite significant (ie: Innaminka).
Cheers,
Aceyducey
stefan
12th-August-2004, 12:52 PM
So, here's an idea. Why don't we all create a tip sheet ourselves? I don't give much about those stock tip sheets out there and I wouldn't follow any of them, but it would certainly be very interesting to see what people consider good to trade with here.
I was thinking about opening a thread, listing my trades but I somehow think that wouldn't be all too exiting as I mostly hold long term.
I remember the days when I was a daytrader on NASDAQ. There where hundreds of trading rooms where "gurus" would call a stock and the herd would follow making them stinking rich...
Happy trading
Stefan
Aceyducey
12th-August-2004, 03:11 PM
Here's a recent report on the value of Aussie tip sheets...
http://www.agsm.edu.au/eajm/0406/pdf/carson_etal.pdf
In summary:
The newsletters show no aptitude for picking winners among small and large firms, where large firms comprise the top 150 firms by market capitalisation and small firms comprise the several hundred companies that are ranked 301 and above in market capitalisation.
Cheers,
Aceyducey
still_in_school
12th-August-2004, 06:46 PM
Hi Guys,
tip sheets are great to intraday trade on, you will also find, many of them are also the same as other tip sheets recommendations... the hard thing about tip sheets is finding one that is for the short term...
Cheers,
sis
Mega
13th-August-2004, 09:45 AM
the hard thing about tip sheets is finding one that is for the short term...
Why do you want to trade short term? Short term trading normally tends to be speculative - very high risk and unless you're very expirienced trader you most likely will lose everything.
IMHO it is much better to trade long term when you have done your fundamental research.
For example your friend grows trees. He offers you a share in his business. You will decide to buy it because you know that your money literally grow on plantation. In ten years you will get good return with high certainty. But if you will decide to get the seeds and instead of planting them sell them to someone else you may make quick buck. But in doing so you will forfeit your almost certain return. The money which you will get for sale of seeds may seem good now but then you have nothing. Money itself do not matter much. Sale of seeds will be subject to current market conditions and may be not at best price at all (even if at current moment the price seems to be good). But in the end buyer of the seeds will collect all benefits which you could collect otherwise.
still_in_school
13th-August-2004, 12:50 PM
Why do you want to trade short term? Short term trading normally tends to be speculative - very high risk and unless you're very expirienced trader you most likely will lose everything.
short term, is commonly known as higher risk, but you can still protect, and minimise your capital at risk, personally i prefer to go short in the market, have the money in a deal for a short period of time, take the profits and move into the next deal, yet at the same time consistenly add to my medium/long term position. (if it goes the other way, cut my losses short and reposition, into a new trade)
IMHO it is much better to trade long term when you have done your fundamental research.
agree, though, when your doing T/A, most positions are short, an entry, exit and strategy are planned before entrying a trade
For example your friend grows trees. He offers you a share in his business. You will decide to buy it because you know that your money literally grow on plantation. In ten years you will get good return with high certainty. But if you will decide to get the seeds and instead of planting them sell them to someone else you may make quick buck. But in doing so you will forfeit your almost certain return. The money which you will get for sale of seeds may seem good now but then you have nothing. Money itself do not matter much. Sale of seeds will be subject to current market conditions and may be not at best price at all (even if at current moment the price seems to be good). But in the end buyer of the seeds will collect all benefits *which you could collect otherwise.
Again agree, but when your in the long term... you will miss out on opportunities of buying and selling the same stock over and over again, where profit can be made, and if the long term position is to make say a 20%, but there were say 10 - 20 opportunities during that time period (saying long term a year or so....), and each position had 2 weeks each of uptrend and downtrend, where a reasonable profit, could be made, short term positions, have a greater possible chance of out doing... long term profits earned....
Cheers,
sis
jkool
14th-August-2004, 12:59 AM
Again agree, but when your in the long term... you will miss out on opportunities of buying and selling the same stock over and over again, where profit can be made, and if the long term position is to make say a 20%, but there were say 10 - 20 opportunities during that time period (saying long term a year or so....), and each position had 2 weeks each of uptrend and downtrend, where a reasonable profit, could be made, short term positions, have a greater possible chance of out doing... long term profits earned....
Cheers,
sis
Yeah sis you have got it pretty much all covered mate. One thing though - I dont like the risk of trading 10-20 opportunities within your period of time.
Essentially trading number of stocks over short time you will end up kinda picking the tops and bottoms of the market which is not, as far as I can recall, the most profitable strategy when trading.
I personaly much more prefer to ride my one winner all the way instead of jumping into number of other positions....if only for the risk and brokerage costs
jkool
14th-August-2004, 01:10 AM
My last post: Sorry for OT, I got a bit carried away by previous entries.
So yeah Tip Sheets: I dont have much experience with them however I do know that the sheet/newsletter composed by Rivkin's funds has proven pretty successful....and for quite reasonable cost. No not trying to advertise it here I dont use it myself.
Problem with tipsheets is that you cant really hold anyone accountable for your losses. It comes down to one's own judgement when using the tip sheet and therefore not really helping. One can as well go on the markets and use own judgement freely without being limited by a tip sheet. Or not?
stefan
16th-August-2004, 07:53 AM
It comes down to one's own judgement when using the tip sheet and therefore not really helping. One can as well go on the markets and use own judgement freely without being limited by a tip sheet. Or not?
Spot on. I agree 100%.
you will miss out on opportunities of buying and selling the same stock over and over again, where profit can be made.
Maybe so, but dont' forget that you will not always be able to make a profit. The slightest loss will take you down a lot more than you think. You'd have to be extremly good and up to the task to trade 10-20 opportunities on a stock over a year. Not to mention that you'd run out of weeks quickly with 2 weeks of up and down turns... 20 trades (in and out = 1 trade) amount to $1200 in fees and charges. Add tax and you'd have to be the most genius trader I've come across so far 8).
In the end it comes down to the type of stock you invest in. Some are pure short term ones and others are not.
I'm still not convinced that the tip sheets are worth the money you pay for it.
Happy trading
Stefan
RichKid
25th-August-2004, 04:37 PM
There's an article in the current issue of Money Magazine on tipsheets. Didn't seem very detailed but worth a look if anyone's interested.
RichKid
RichKid
8th-September-2004, 05:19 PM
Hope this thread isn't dead yet!!
I noticed that nobody has mentioned the free 'tipsheet' columns. That's right, there are plenty of magazines out there that have 'experts' tip stocks and odd guest tipsters in major newspapers.
The obvious candidates are the business/investor mags like Shares (mentioned earlier), BRW, Money, Personal Investor etc.
But there's also The Bulletin (has a 'Speculator' column that seems to be doing well (has a performance table/portfolio) but I've noticed some anomalies (ie because it only comes out once a week, anyone who wants to buy a stock recommended may sometimes see the stock pick too late to buy (ie price has gone up or the buy price is inaccurate since the time of writing). The guy who writes the column also does one in Money mag- the stocks are often in both portfolios.
I keep an eye on his picks in case it covers stocks I'm already into or was not aware of. Two of his tech picks have been real winners (QRS, BQT) and the portfolio is doing well generally but I haven't really looked at it closely enough to do a proper 'audit'.
Hope someone finds these sources of info useful, just a matter of picking the most consistent 'analysts' I guess.
RichKid
malachii
10th-September-2004, 05:59 AM
Darryl Guppy has a good theory on how to trade stocks mentioned in tip sheets in his trend trading book - I've used it a couple of times now and what he says has worked for me almost spot on!
RichKid
12th-September-2004, 05:35 PM
Hi Malachii,
Sounds very Interesting, must check out the Trend Trading book and see if I can benefit too!
Also, it's well worth subscribing to www.aireview.com (Australasian investment review- it's free, runs on ad revenue I think?), a specialist financial/investment mag. They often have broker reports and price targets. Let me know what you think. I look forward to there analyst and stock coverage every week (also general economic news).
All the best,
RichKid
RichKid
10th-October-2004, 01:43 PM
Darryl Guppy has a good theory on how to trade stocks mentioned in tip sheets in his trend trading book - I've used it a couple of times now and what he says has worked for me almost spot on!
Was that the blue 'snapshot trading' book? I looked it up but the only section on tip sheets (mentioned the Bulletin column) that I found cuationed against temporary price hikes due to readers piling into the stock. He basically said to follow the normal TA rules without getting caught up in the hype.
Please let me know if you remember which of his other books mentioned tip sheets specifically. I'll keep looking in the meantime. Thanks very much for mentioning it.
Mofra
10th-October-2004, 09:17 PM
Just though I'd throw in my two cents,
A couple of years back I subscribed to a Huntleys report, and would have bought only 2 or 3 stocks mentioned during the 6 months receiving the report. The major reasons for basically ignoring their suggestions was I can't buy anything I haven't researched myself - I felt too uncomfortable & I'm naturally sceptical. Having said this, I find reading tips sheets & broker recommendations extremely useful to see how others take the fundamental information of a company (and the current economic climate) and turn it into a recommendation. This has often given me an insight to similar stocks or pressures on stocks in the same sector I may not have previously considered.
Cheers
RichKid
10th-October-2004, 10:59 PM
Yep, must agree with you there Mofra about Huntley's, it seemed okay but not my cup of tea. I did agree with there reviews and picks in some areas but I'd already come to that conclusion on my own (maybe I was biased). I didn't agree with them on some counts (eg they don't love HDR like I do and they went short on AUN far too early). I find that Huntley's is very conservative. Again, like you, I find the different perspective of interest but I prefer other 'tipsheets'.
In the end I let the tipsheets give me a range of potential stocks and then I match them up to my own criteria and plan.
BTW, as for forums being 'tipsheets', forums are the least reliable- yet we love to chat on them!! At least we can cross-examine people and checkout their picks in hindsight, unlike with most tipsheets.
ctp6360
5th-July-2005, 12:10 PM
RichKid I'm not sure if malachii ended up telling you but Guppy's technique of buying stocks recommended in Shares magazine is in his "Trend Trading" book, its the latest one I think, published in 2004. I bought it for $40 from Angus and Robertson but I'm sure you could get it for cheaper on Ebay. I am not sure if someone with your experience would need it but as a beginner I am definitely enjoying it (and seeing where most people go wrong).
RichKid
5th-July-2005, 12:28 PM
RichKid I'm not sure if malachii ended up telling you but Guppy's technique of buying stocks recommended in Shares magazine is in his "Trend Trading" book, its the latest one I think, published in 2004. I bought it for $40 from Angus and Robertson but I'm sure you could get it for cheaper on Ebay. I am not sure if someone with your experience would need it but as a beginner I am definitely enjoying it (and seeing where most people go wrong).
Hi Ctp,
Yep, I managed to find the book, he refers to the method in more than one book- might be a reference in 'Snapshot Trading' as well. Thanks very much for mentioning 'Trend Trading'. I'm actually still very much a beginner, still trying to sort it all out!
I really enjoy his books too as they are very practical, a lot of info crammed in but worth reading over and over again- I still don't get some of his explanations but will work at it. Glad you found this thread, that search tool is very helpful for me. See his 'Better Trading' book too- probably the best in the series as it covers money management in more detail.
ctp6360
5th-July-2005, 12:42 PM
Thanks RichKid I will get Better Trading ASAP, I was wondering how many of his books I needed to read before the content became a bit redundant but obviously there is gold in each one.
I'm suprised to hear you are still a beginner given your posts but I guess we're eternally students no matter how good we get at any pursuit.
RichKid
5th-July-2005, 12:51 PM
Thanks RichKid I will get Better Trading ASAP, I was wondering how many of his books I needed to read before the content became a bit redundant but obviously there is gold in each one.
I'm suprised to hear you are still a beginner given your posts but I guess we're eternally students no matter how good we get at any pursuit.
Yes, we are eternally students but I am seriously still learning (my bank ac proves it!). I have learnt a lot and try to help out when possible (hence the number of posts) but there is a long way to go yet for me. I'm obviously not at the very first step in trading but from what I've discovered recently I may have to revisit that proposition!
I have found a number of other books to be very useful, try going through the rest of the beginners forum and trading tips ('tips' on stocks are not as important as the other stuff). Trade Your Way to Financial Freedom by Van Tharp is also very useful to me, it is well known and recommended by many (do a search for Van Tharp on asf and you'll find some real gems!).
It's Snake Pliskin
30th-July-2005, 12:54 PM
Darryl Guppy has a good theory on how to trade stocks mentioned in tip sheets in his trend trading book - I've used it a couple of times now and what he says has worked for me almost spot on!
Malachi,
Could you elaborate on that a bit more please.
Thanks
RichKid
6th-November-2005, 10:58 AM
Just a tip on 'tipsheets'. If you are interested in a co and want to know what some of the brokers or tipsters think of it then go to the co website and look up the research/broker reports link (most small co's have one) and you'll see recent reviews. Not the most recent and maybe abridged but good enough imo. Another way to save money.
Kauri
6th-November-2005, 12:54 PM
Just a tip on 'tipsheets'. If you are interested in a co and want to know what some of the brokers or tipsters think of it then go to the co website and look up the research/broker reports link (most small co's have one) and you'll see recent reviews. Not the most recent and maybe abridged but good enough imo. Another way to save money.
Rich Kid..
That's good advice, if I could add one caution though, I have found that with smaller less covered companies i.e outside of the ASX300 it pays to check to see if the broker giving the report is also involved with the company. It is amazing how often you find that they are getting a healthy fee for handling that companies share issues/capital raisings. :)
RichKid
6th-November-2005, 05:50 PM
Rich Kid..
That's good advice, if I could add one caution though, I have found that with smaller less covered companies i.e outside of the ASX300 it pays to check to see if the broker giving the report is also involved with the company. It is amazing how often you find that they are getting a healthy fee for handling that companies share issues/capital raisings. :)
Kauri,
Yes, spot on, I should have remembered that. Also, the brokers don't usually get it right and they can be vague so don't get too caught up in their views.
Kauri
6th-November-2005, 06:14 PM
Also, being a tad cynical, I wonder how many brokerages/merchant bank types will be giving TLS a bad report card as The Right Honourable John Howard gets close to disposing of his mobs remaining holding. :p:
n_b23
10th-January-2006, 08:45 PM
Hey everyone,just wanting to learn to trade in the stockmarket and am wanting to know if joining stock reports like The Australian Stock Report or Rivkin Report are a good idea?Just joined this forum and it seems very helpful.Thanks for any replies
ob1kenobi
10th-January-2006, 08:59 PM
Hey everyone,just wanting to learn to trade in the stockmarket and am wanting to know if joining stock reports like The Australian Stock Report or Rivkin Report are a good idea?Just joined this forum and it seems very helpful.Thanks for any replies
Firstly welcome to ASF. You'll find this is a place where a lot of wisdom gets shared. There's a lot of accumulated knowledge in the threads. If you are starting out, take the time to search them and read some of the responses.
The question you have asked, is asked often by new members. You might like to read the replies in the following thread about courses and reports.
At the end of the day, you're the one that is parting with hard earned cash. Do your own research, have a trading plan and only enter into a trade if it fits with your financial profile and helps you achieve your financial goals and objectives. Likewise, don't enter a trade if you're not prepared to lose money. At the end of the day, read the threads, the books, articles etc and learn as much as you can before you trade. Consider paper trading for awhile. Personally I would never rely on a tip sheet but that is a part of my trading plan.
Good luck!
michael_selway
10th-January-2006, 09:04 PM
Hey everyone,just wanting to learn to trade in the stockmarket and am wanting to know if joining stock reports like The Australian Stock Report or Rivkin Report are a good idea?Just joined this forum and it seems very helpful.Thanks for any replies
http://www.aireview.com
I think that one is really good, its free also
U can search by ASX code and its sorted by date. Also covers broker upgrades/downgrades/target prices. Also analyst reports on various topics. Its updated Daily except weekends
dougy
2nd-March-2006, 06:26 PM
Hi
Just joined this forum, am based in Kiwiland, trade fundamentally and technically. Mixed results, but better results from ASX than NZX. Use Metastock 8. Am considering subscribing to one or more of these:
Intelligent Investor, The Chartist (Nick Radge), Harper Trading System.
Anyone who has used any of these care to comment on their worthwhileness?
Thanks
dougy
smrt-guy
2nd-March-2006, 06:40 PM
Haven't used any of them so can't give you any specific advice on how I found them, but...
Have developed a distaste for Intelligent Investor after their article comparing Alinta to Enron (business models may be similar, but hopefully the management isn't as shonky).
Nick's book is excellent and that alone would sway me to picking his from the three.
Milk Man
2nd-March-2006, 06:59 PM
Haven't used any of them so can't give you any specific advice on how I found them, but...
Have developed a distaste for Intelligent Investor after their article comparing Alinta to Enron (business models may be similar, but hopefully the management isn't as shonky).
Nick's book is excellent and that alone would sway me to picking his from the three.
Exactly; if you cant learn from Nick you can't learn from anyone. I dont subsciribe myself but if I did subscribe to anything it would be the chartist.
tech/a
3rd-March-2006, 10:03 AM
Ok
So we find a tip sheet we like now how do you turn a tipping sheet into a trading method?
Do you think one can make a consistant profit trading tip sheets?
Is the ability to tip over 50% winners a necessity for tip sheet selection.
Lets see some suggestions of tip sheet trading and Trade planning around tip sheets.Perhaps if someone is using a tip sheet we/you could devise and trade a "Plan" here. To perhaps go some way in answering the question of how benificial they are to traders.
Perhaps a couple of ideas could be traded.
Win /loose/ or draw some experience maybe drawn.
mit
3rd-March-2006, 11:29 AM
Malachi,
Could you elaborate on that a bit more please.
Thanks
Malachi hasn't answered so I'll try.
There are over 2000 stocks on the ASX which is much too many to watch each day. Guppy had a number of strategies to reduce this number.
One strategy was to use the shares magazine. You would take all of the tips and look at them technically. If they are technically good (choose your favourite indicators) then make an entry or put them on a watch list for an entry. It is surprising. In a share's magazine there might be 10 tips but only one or two would be a decent buy.
Milk Man
3rd-March-2006, 09:20 PM
Ok
So we find a tip sheet we like now how do you turn a tipping sheet into a trading method?
Do you think one can make a consistant profit trading tip sheets?
Is the ability to tip over 50% winners a necessity for tip sheet selection.
Lets see some suggestions of tip sheet trading and Trade planning around tip sheets.Perhaps if someone is using a tip sheet we/you could devise and trade a "Plan" here. To perhaps go some way in answering the question of how benificial they are to traders.
Perhaps a couple of ideas could be traded.
Win /loose/ or draw some experience maybe drawn.
-Make up our own tip sheet.
-Call it the "Ripped Skin Report".
-Get a huge following by puting a pair of homosexuals on an infomercial about it.
-Buy shares in whatever company with an account in someone elses name and then ramp and spruik our butt off in our newsletter then sell before everyone figures out the stock is a dog.
-Get done for insider trading and hang ourselves.
Sound like a plan? :D
It's Snake Pliskin
4th-March-2006, 02:00 AM
Malachi hasn't answered so I'll try.
There are over 2000 stocks on the ASX which is much too many to watch each day. Guppy had a number of strategies to reduce this number.
One strategy was to use the shares magazine. You would take all of the tips and look at them technically. If they are technically good (choose your favourite indicators) then make an entry or put them on a watch list for an entry. It is surprising. In a share's magazine there might be 10 tips but only one or two would be a decent buy.
Mit,
Thanks, I remember reading that in trend trading. I was a little scepticle, but saw his logic in it. :fish: A bit like fishing was his analogy.
Snake
It's Snake Pliskin
4th-March-2006, 02:11 AM
-Make up our own tip sheet.
-Call it the "Ripped Skin Report".
-Get a huge following by puting a pair of homosexuals on an infomercial about it.
-Buy shares in whatever company with an account in someone elses name and then ramp and spruik our butt off in our newsletter then sell before everyone figures out the stock is a dog.
-Get done for insider trading and hang ourselves.
Sound like a plan? :D
I won`t try to imagine the skin ripping part :arsch:
How about the "You can do it report"
tech/a
4th-March-2006, 09:04 AM
Ar ar ar. Milk.
It was/is a serious point.
There is much debate as to which is the best.
Inferring which picks the most accurate growth stocks.
That wont be known till after the fact.This months "Boys only" Investment Newsletter may be the leader in picks this year but next you may find "Skin rippers monthly" took first prize while your past leader you now subscribe to finished a dismal bottom (err sorry).
Clearly there seems little or no planning just invest in their top picks and let the responsibility for win or loss be on the newsletter.
Ill start the ball rolling.
Investment newsletters supply the opportunity to compile a trading Universe.
It's Snake Pliskin
4th-March-2006, 09:03 PM
They can also be technically or fundamentally biased.
...depending on what you go with. :remybussi
Decide what you are or want to be. Are you a technical person / aspiring trader or a fundamental person / aspiring investor?
An answer to this question will lead you to the newletter you need to decide on.
Milk Man
6th-March-2006, 07:36 PM
They can also be technically or fundamentally biased.
...depending on what you go with. :remybussi
Decide what you are or want to be. Are you a technical person / aspiring trader or a fundamental person / aspiring investor?
An answer to this question will lead you to the newletter you need to decide on.
Not necessarily. With the rippedskin report they have that big of a distribution that it could and probably does move the market. With this in mind, all you would need to do would be to buy ASAP and then manage your exit. I think ol' Wyatt Earp (Guppy) said six to eight weeks was a good hold time, this was with shares mag I think. Of course the smaller the market cap and the heavier the spruiking it gets the better. Maybe we should start up a newsletter called "The chicken report". :D (Just kidding chicko)
Julia
2nd-June-2006, 10:44 AM
From time to time there are questions about the usefulness of the various stock recommendation publications.
The "Intelligent Investor" has just published its lists of good and bad.
"Hanging our Heads in Shame" Date Price Then Price Now
Millers Retail Strong Buy Sep2002 $2.05 $1.585
Aristocrat Leisure Sell June 04 $4.75 $13.60
Brambles Sell June 04 $6.04 $10.42
Sonic Healthcare Sell Mar 02 $6.20 $13.99
S ons of Gwalia Buy Aug 01 $7.75 -
Ion Hold Sep 04 $1.22 -
Croesus Mining Spec Buy Mar 05 $ 0.46 $<0.275
Mayne Group Sell June 04 $3.18 $6.08
Adsteam Marine Buy June 98 $2.42 $1.87
Strathfield Buy Jul 02 $0.34 $0.035
There's also a list of what they got right if anyone is interested.
Julia
Realist
2nd-June-2006, 11:38 AM
The "Intelligent Investor"
I signed up to this for free out of curiosity.
Ben Graham would be turning in his grave. :swear:
They recommend some companies that have not even made a profit, ROC for instance.
And in the last issue they slagged off CMI which does make a profit and could be liquidated for more than you bought it for.
There is no way their tips are based on Ben Grahams fundamentals. Infact they do what Graham (and I hopefully) profit from. :rolleyes:
Graham recommends a large, well known, well run company that makes a profit year after year, has a low PER compared to the last 5 years earnings and a low P/B ratio. Regardless of future propspects or what analysts think. he does not predict, he protects buy buying cheap.
Or a company that is selling for less than its NTA less debts. For obvious reasons.
He would never recommend an IPO, a company that does not make a profit, or a company that is expensive compared to NTA unless it is purely for a small speculative gamble that you are more than willing to lose, hey gambling can be fun. A company that has excellent future prospects and the analysts love is going to be overpriced accordingly so he would not buy it.
The Intelligent Investor Magazine is a misrepresentation of it's name!!
Milk Man
2nd-June-2006, 12:06 PM
From time to time there are questions about the usefulness of the various stock recommendation publications.
The "Intelligent Investor" has just published its lists of good and bad.
"Hanging our Heads in Shame" Date Price Then Price Now
Millers Retail Strong Buy Sep2002 $2.05 $1.585
Aristocrat Leisure Sell June 04 $4.75 $13.60
Brambles Sell June 04 $6.04 $10.42
Sonic Healthcare Sell Mar 02 $6.20 $13.99
S ons of Gwalia Buy Aug 01 $7.75 -
Ion Hold Sep 04 $1.22 -
Croesus Mining Spec Buy Mar 05 $ 0.46 %4$slt;0.275
Mayne Group Sell June 04 $3.18 $6.08
Adsteam Marine Buy June 98 $2.42 $1.87
Strathfield Buy Jul 02 $0.34 $0.035
There's also a list of what they got right if anyone is interested.
Julia
Hahahahaha; theyre crap but at least they know it huh?
bvbfan
2nd-June-2006, 08:57 PM
Funny how they could possibly pick the two worst gold stocks in a gold bull market.
Takes some effort!
Prospector
3rd-June-2006, 09:25 AM
I am another unhappy camper for Intelligent Investor. I was recommended this subscription perhaps four years ago by someone who felt they were very good. So I continued with MRL for some time because they just kept giving them a stong buy so I thought, as I was green to this game, they must see something that I couldnt. Eventually I sold at quite a loss.
As this peron who recommended them had used their recommendations for some time and had done well, I am wondering if perhaps 3 years ago their staff changed?
Milk Man
3rd-June-2006, 09:46 AM
I am another unhappy camper for Intelligent Investor. I was recommended this subscription perhaps four years ago by someone who felt they were very good. So I continued with MRL for some time because they just kept giving them a stong buy so I thought, as I was green to this game, they must see something that I couldnt. Eventually I sold at quite a loss.
As this peron who recommended them had used their recommendations for some time and had done well, I am wondering if perhaps 3 years ago their staff changed?
Maybe theyre being run by a brokerage firm now huh? ;)
Sensei
3rd-June-2006, 02:34 PM
Has anyone trialled ....
Meridian Stock Report (www.meridianline.com.au)
or
Stockwatch Report (www.swreport.com) ?
I am not recommending either just wonder if anyone has any feedback on them. Meridian also put out a sheet on the SPI and am particularly interestd if anyone has any comments. I did trial that but the 3 day trial did not give me adequate time to gauge its performance.
coyotte
4th-June-2006, 01:17 AM
I have been subscribing to this US service for several years now ($us120 pa)
Although not a stock tipping sheet the writer Steve Saville gives a clearer understanding of how and why markets work as they do
Gives out out a weekly, 3mth & long view of various markets, mainly US, US$, Gold and Commodities, with the reasoning behind the forecast --- can be very enlightening at times ---- generally not too far off the mark with their general forecasts --- they did get POG totally wrong on its late 05/06 move.
There is a 30day free trial available.
http://www.speculative-investor.com
Cheers
Coyotte
tech/a
4th-June-2006, 11:42 AM
Personally I think many of those who purchase tip sheets have unrealistic expectations.
They EXPECT a buy to be a buy a hold to be a hold and a sell to be a sell over a timeframe un defined.
All you have is an opinion.
How YOU handle the TRADING of that opinion could have a massive impact on your bottomline.
To sit back in judgement after X period and say they got that wrong and they are crap is demonstrating to me how people wont take RESPONSIBILITY for THEIR trading.
Julia.
I would like that list of winners.
Trick is for YOU to know WHEN to hold,sell or buy.
THEN,position size maximise and trade positive expectancy,buy quitting losers and riding winners.
What do you expect if you just buy and hold recommendations?????
Every one will be a winner!!!
You have to LEARN to TRADE or at worst learn to INVEST
Julia
4th-June-2006, 02:22 PM
Tech
Intelligent Investor's winners herewith.
Macquarie Bank, Strong Buy, Oct 02 , $20.39, $63.35
Great Southern Plant. Buy, Feb 03, $0.64 $3.76
Cochlear Buy Mar 04, $19.04 $53.36
Computershare Buy Jul 02 $2.08 $8.11
Leighton Holdings Buy May 04 $7.83 $17.05
Roc Oil Buy June 03 $1.13 $3.64
Macquarie Airports Buy May 03 $1.17 $2.96
Aristocrat Leisure Buy Jun 03 $1.15 $13.06
Securenet Buy Apr 02 $0.86 $1.57
AMP Sell Mar 02 $19.12 $9.05
Julia
Realist
5th-June-2006, 11:27 PM
That Intelligent investor winners list is pretty piss weak. :cool:
tech/a
6th-June-2006, 07:05 AM
Some people are never satisfied and join the "Packs" common opinion.
Frankly one 300% winner is pretty impressive.Let alone 7
See the trick is having these in your portfolio for as long as you can.
Techtrader's had less than 7/300% winners in its portfolio for the same period and had satisfactory returns of over 300%.
People have to take responsibility for their own usage of information.
Milk Man
6th-June-2006, 07:36 AM
Tech, yes those are pretty impressive winners. Their losers were also pretty scary to say the least. What was in the middle might be good to know. There are big numbers there none-the-less. We should take a look at the charts and see if there isnt a system to be had eh?
tech/a
6th-June-2006, 08:13 AM
Their losers were also pretty scary to say the least
So when one initially bought into one of these "potential" winners through a buy recommendation,would it not have been wise to have a price point where you would say,this is not performing in the positive way I was expecting,so I will get out and buy into one that has that potential again??
OR
Learn some technical points to be in a position to place a technical stop??
We should take a look at the charts and see if there isnt a system to be had eh?
I was eluding to that back on page one and there was no interest so stopped posting on the thread until it was revived.
Doesnt need to be a system as such but some well placed trading rules wouldnt go astray.Would at least give you a CHANCE to profit.
With 300% winners you dont have to be correct all that often to be profitable.
RichKid
6th-June-2006, 01:37 PM
So when one initially bought into one of these "potential" winners through a buy recommendation,would it not have been wise to have a price point where you would say,this is not performing in the positive way I was expecting,so I will get out and buy into one that has that potential again??
OR
Learn some technical points to be in a position to place a technical stop??
....
ie a point where we know we are wrong, as Nick likes to say, so what's the criteria? With EW or TA we know when a stock has failed to follow a pattern but with fundamentals it'll probably have to be an arbitary percentage. 8%? 10% stops? Do past winners of this magnitude guarantee future results of similar winners? How many of those 3 baggers actually went below such an arbitary stop point? Ie how do we capture enough of the big ones while cutting out the 'poor' ones? I'm thinking in the context of this particular tipsheet. The more stats the better to work with, one year's report isn't much to go on. I'd say using Martin Roths' Top Stocks would be better as we have a long history (so more data/samples to test).
Nick Radge
6th-June-2006, 02:16 PM
Intelligent Investor actually sent me a freebie the other day that listed all these trades that are being mentioned. If you read carefully they do actually say that "we may have been psychologically attached" to some of their recommendations and as such were unable to push the exit button even though the red flag was being waved.
The MRL trade was a case in point. The initial recommendation was a buy at circa $3.40. They then did a major special report at approx. $2.70 stating that it was an absolute gimme and that they rarely did these special reports. As the stock declines through $2.00 they moved from Strong Buy to Buy (whatever that means). They only ever went to hold when the stock declined through $1.40. The stock eventually went to $0.70. They claim a victory now for getting out above those lows.
As I say, "Its not a problem being wrong. Its staying wrong that does the damage."
If I can offer anything to new traders/investors;
If its that obvious, you've missed it.
Realist
6th-June-2006, 05:21 PM
Frankly one 300% winner is pretty impressive.Let alone 7
:eek:
But they have had 200 issues over 8 years!!!
If they recommended just one buy each issue they'd have recommended 200 stocks. They've probably recommended over 500 stocks!
They should have a hell of alot more real winners than they do!! 7 out of 500! :sly:
As for keeping them for a longtime, yes of course!! it is investing, 1 year is the barest of bare minimums to reduce tax and brokerage and collect some dividends when investing. 10 years should be your aim with each stock you buy. You'll double your money from dividend reinvestment alone.
If I just recommended you buy the whole ASX 200 now and not sell any and we looked at how smart that was 8 years down the track you'd realise just how piss poor the Intelligent Investors results were.
A random name generator would get more than seven 300% wins if you let it go over the ASX 500 times over 8 years and never sold them. :o
tech/a
6th-June-2006, 05:50 PM
Rich.
You'd have a watchlist,re entry maybe an option.
Realist
You'd not buy all buys as chances are you wouldnt have enough capital.
I dont get the sheet so cant comment on quantities,it just seems that most appear to just accept as gospel the recommendations and judge their performance on their failures.I'm sure any trading methodology can be improved.
Nick
If its that obvious, you've missed it.
So you wouldnt recommend buying high and selling higher?
Nick Radge
7th-June-2006, 07:58 AM
Tech,
My comment is in regard to general commentary around the markets at present. The parallels’ to 1999 are unmistakable its just that now everyone is an expert in junior mining stocks.
tech/a
7th-June-2006, 08:59 AM
I see your point----Dont miss this up and comer--BCZ---!!!!
ghotib
8th-June-2006, 01:41 AM
ie a point where we know we are wrong, as Nick likes to say, so what's the criteria? With EW or TA we know when a stock has failed to follow a pattern but with fundamentals it'll probably have to be an arbitary percentage. 8%? 10% stops? Do past winners of this magnitude guarantee future results of similar winners? How many of those 3 baggers actually went below such an arbitary stop point? Ie how do we capture enough of the big ones while cutting out the 'poor' ones? I'm thinking in the context of this particular tipsheet. The more stats the better to work with, one year's report isn't much to go on. I'd say using Martin Roths' Top Stocks would be better as we have a long history (so more data/samples to test).
Veeery interesting thread; thanks people.
Like Realist, I'm attempting to apply a value investing strategy and my guides for that are Benjamin Graham and his descendants, notably Buffet and Munger and some of their various interpreters, imitators, and name droppers. So I took a trial subscription to Intelligent Investor, largely on the strength of its name, and I didn't take a real subscription because it didn't seem to me to be applying the substance of a value approach, which meant that for me it's in the same group as Smart Investor only a whole lot more expensive. I don't have the copies any more, but from memory my main argument with them was too much emphasis on share prices and not enough detailed analysis of the businesses. Nick Radge's description of their history with MRL suggests that too.
The way I understand it, value investors sell:
* If something about the business changes in a way that negatively changes the value of the business, or
* If they learn something about the business that changes their initial valuation of the business, or
* They need some cash.
The first two are "the point where we know we're wrong" that you're looking for Rich. Share price isn't an essential part of finding that point, because the underlying assumption is that share price will at times match the value of a business but there's no predicting when. So you buy only well below your valuation because the gap between price and value is your margin of safety, and you don't set a stop loss because a falling share price is an improving opportunity to buy.
Simple really. All you have to do is get the business valuation right :D
Realist, I think I'm agreeing with your comments about the tipsheet yes? Do you agree with my elevator description of value investing? I've been following a lot of your comments but I'm slow to respond to a lot of these threads because I'm feeling my way and I need to stop and think a lot. Also to read. I've just bought (from the ASF Bookshop, of course) "A Wonderful Company at a Fair Price" by Brian McNiven, who I think you could call a purist Buffetologist. One chapter that specially interests me talks about how Buffet differs from Graham, largely because the times have changed so much. I'd love to talk that through with anyone who's read the book, maybe on a different thread.
Tech, I really like your comment about tip sheets being a way to build a watchlist. I'm finding that it's really hard to get to a manageable universe (that's a very peculiar concept if you think about it too closely) of stocks that might meet my buy criteria, and tip sheets / forums / etc. can help a bit.
Ghoti
RichKid
8th-June-2006, 01:46 AM
For Value Investing tipsheets I find that Fat Prophets Mining have a better idea of co values and the industry, heaps of free reports in the media for you to check em out. Still, all part of the same stable, they don't use stops and they have heaps of rec's and quite a few big losers (and winners). All long term holdings they say but many are sold sooner than that according to the performance reports. You can narrow down which ones to buy by only (for eg) buying ASX200 stocks or only gold stocks or only highly liquid stocks or whatever. They do tell you how much to buy (eg $2k a stock or something like that) and have a hypothetical portfolio. That's the best I can say about a value investing tipsheets atm. As you can see I like commodities!
tech/a
8th-June-2006, 06:33 AM
Ghotib
This is similar to the way Duc trades he is posting his results here and in Reefcap.
We are having great discussion at Reef here
by reading youll see my biggest problem with the method,which Duc is happy with and I would be squirming.
mit
8th-June-2006, 08:55 AM
Veeery interesting thread; thanks people.
Like Realist, I'm attempting to apply a value investing strategy and my guides for that are Benjamin Graham and his descendants, notably Buffet and Munger and some of their various interpreters, imitators, and name droppers. So I took a trial subscription to Intelligent Investor, largely on the strength of its name, and I didn't take a real subscription because it didn't seem to me to be applying the substance of a value approach,
It would be suicide for a newsletter to do true Buffet/Graham type investing. People want lots of buy and sell suggestions, while I would be surprised that there would be more than one or two new "value" stocks coming up every year according to Graham's value rules.
MIT
ghotib
8th-June-2006, 12:02 PM
It would be suicide for a newsletter to do true Buffet/Graham type investing. People want lots of buy and sell suggestions, while I would be surprised that there would be more than one or two new "value" stocks coming up every year according to Graham's value rules.
MIT
True.
Value investors are also not very lucrative clients for stockbrokers. Or stock exchanges. Guess that's why so many drop the Buffet name and a couple of pithy quotations and skip lightly over the details.
Ghoti
ghotib
8th-June-2006, 12:11 PM
Ghotib
This is similar to the way Duc trades he is posting his results here and in Reefcap.
We are having great discussion at Reef here
by reading youll see my biggest problem with the method,which Duc is happy with and I would be squirming.
Thanks for the lead. I'll follow this up later - some time. My immediate reaction is that I don't think of intrinsic valuation as a trading tool. I do secretly read about technical trading and drool over the pictures, and when I grow up I wanna have a go at it. But in my mind trading is very strongly separated from value investing, at least at this stage.
I signed up to ReefCap to read all about TechTrader and I haven't managed to do that yet either. Like value investing, it's a long-term project
Ghoti
ghotib
8th-June-2006, 12:23 PM
For Value Investing tipsheets I find that Fat Prophets Mining have a better idea of co values and the industry, heaps of free reports in the media for you to check em out. Still, all part of the same stable, they don't use stops and they have heaps of rec's and quite a few big losers (and winners). All long term holdings they say but many are sold sooner than that according to the performance reports. You can narrow down which ones to buy by only (for eg) buying ASX200 stocks or only gold stocks or only highly liquid stocks or whatever. They do tell you how much to buy (eg $2k a stock or something like that) and have a hypothetical portfolio. That's the best I can say about a value investing tipsheets atm. As you can see I like commodities!
To put it bluntly RK, mining companies are not value investments, so Fat Prophets Mining is not in the value investment stable, even if it doesn't use stops. The point of value investing is the valuation; the more variables in business, greater the business risk, the trickier the valuation, and the higher the required rate of return (that's required, not wished for). Too many variables in mining.
However, please be aware that I do know I don't know as much as it sounds like I think that I know.
Happy commodifications
Ghoti
RichKid
8th-June-2006, 12:41 PM
To put it bluntly RK, mining companies are not value investments, so Fat Prophets Mining is not in the value investment stable, even if it doesn't use stops. The point of value investing is the valuation; the more variables in business, greater the business risk, the trickier the valuation, and the higher the required rate of return (that's required, not wished for). Too many variables in mining.
However, please be aware that I do know I don't know as much as it sounds like I think that I know.
Happy commodifications
Ghoti
Ghoti,
Check out the FPM site and their detailed reports; detailed figures and assumptions are all stated- remember to distinguish between pure speccies and the stars of tomorrow. They classify reviews according to risk level too so you can choose. I bet there are many in there that are less risky than industrial stocks.
I don't subscribe to them or follow their value method but I respect their opinions and detailed analysis and use their tips to find prospects. Just because a stock is a micro cap and deals in resources it doesn't mean it can't be valued like any other stock either (but I note how it can be tougher, it depends on your skill and experience, I think FPM has a great track record so far).
BHP, RIO, WPL ('mining companies') are regarded as bluechips and are often bought every year as value propositions by thousands of people.
Nick Radge
8th-June-2006, 03:08 PM
Most valuation models contain 5 inputs. One is factual whereas the other 4 are assumptions.
Facts:
Earnings from previous 12 months
Assumptions:
Annual growth rate
Length of growth rate period
Long-term levelling off rate
Benchmark discount rate
I did several presentations here and in N.Z on my findings of my FA research. If anyone would like a copy of the PowerPoint presentation then feel free to email me at nick_radge@reefcap.com
Here are some snippets:
A 2002 study of Institutional Investor ranking’s in the US found that analysts considered reputation and recognition were much more important than their performance.
Li, Xi, Career Concerns of Analysts: Compensation, Termination, and Performance (April 8, 2002), University of Miami Scholl of Business Administration
In a subsequent study in 2003 it was empirically demonstrated that sell-side analysts faced a conflict between telling the truth to build their reputation, and misleading investors via optimistic forecasts to generate short-term increases in commission.
Jackson, Andrew, Trade Generation, Reputation and Sell-Side Analysts (June 6, 2003), London Business School
In 2002 the Australian Securities and Investments Commission reviewed analysts conduct and found systemic weaknesses in the ability of some firms to adequately identify, manage and disclose conflicts of interest. It discovered an unacceptable level of reliance on staff integrity in some firms.
The US Securities and Exchange Commission recently settled with ten Wall Street firms and two individual analysts arising from research conflicts of interest. The civil penalties amounted to US$875 million and major structural reforms and enhanced disclosure were enacted.
RichKid
14th-February-2007, 08:18 AM
Great article below, heard about it from DocJ, worth a read, looks like a lot of smoke and daggers, lots of punters being caught up in it in this crazy bullmarket.
Caught in the net: Online tipster gives the blue-chips a shock
The trader rings change like Rivkin in his prime, says Michael West
February 10, 2007 The Australian www.theaustralian.news.com.au/story/0,20867,21200419-643,00.html
AT 2.02pm yesterday, 2000 mobile phones around the country bleeped: "Sell BNB now. See your email for important info. *************."
In the next couple of minutes a rash of private client sellers hit the market, smacking Babcock & Brown shares down from $26.22 to $25.72, wiping $200 million from the company's market value. Babcock closed at $25.87, down 49c.
There are few people whose recommendation can shove a share price about like that, especially in an $8 billion company. Perhaps the only one in the market right now is Paul *****, a cocky 41-year-old former trader from the halcyon days of Bankers Trust. *****, who runs the online tipsheet ************* from Coffs Harbour on the NSW Mid-North Coast, has a devoted bunch of subscribers. Targeting undervalued growth situations - especially in internet and resources - ***** has made them good money over the past two years, albeit in a raging bull market: 46.5 per cent last year for a 46.4 per cent return since inception in May 2004. The Australian verified these numbers with an external auditor hired by ***** to ratify his results.
A self-confessed rebel who "doesn't like air-conditioned spaces" ***** grew up in Sydney's southern middle-class suburb of Kogarah and joined the BT graduate program after university. Three years later he was out on his own, trading everything from wool futures to interest rates. ***** says he doesn't trade shares any more because of the potential conflict and, while he owns some property at Coffs, most of his wealth is tied up in online property.
He's been copping flack from his critics of late. In the internet chatrooms - hotbeds of anonymous market manipulation - they charge him with ramping stocks, putting a squeeze on small company shares in particular and wielding too much power at the micro-cap end of the market.
And, for this article, ETrade chairman Kerry Roxborough responded to criticisms of the online broker, saying ***** was out to seek notoriety to get more subscribers to his newsletter.
***** agreed to put The Australian on his subscriber list to check out the operation, as long as we did not reveal his current recommendations, save Babcock & Brown. Sure enough, his subscribers had put a rocket under the stock mid-last month. Not since the days of Rene Rivkin's late-night TV ads, had a stock-tipper pushed the market around to this point. And the Rivkin Report, at its peak six years ago, had 50,000 subscribers.
Since then, thanks to the bull market, the explosion of day traders and new technology - chiefly the proliferation of broadband and online broking - the online newsletter business has flourished.
***** might be riding high as the stock market's guru of the moment, but he's not happy - not happy, that is, with the state of his own industry. The online tipsheets, he reckons, are beset by conflicts of interest, lack of accountability, and myriad transparency and disclosure issues. They variously deliver poor advice, calculate their performance with selective data, use aggressive sales tactics and may flout the Australian Securities & Investments Commission's guidelines in their advertising.
Mind you, these are the "blue chip" players ***** is talking about, not the scoundrels who tout surefire triple-digit returns from a month of program-trading options and so forth.
"It's truly remarkable," says *****. "Consumers are really treated badly by those in my industry. It's disgusting.
"I firmly believe the likes of Fat Prophets and Huntleys are entrepreneurs, not advisers ... mediocrity is what you get. It's ridiculous to even think they would beat the market in the first place".
Fat Prophets founder Angus Geddes is irritated by *****'s claims over mediocre performance and potential conflicts of interest. "We are about trying to maximise performance. We are stock pickers, not traders, and I think our record bears that out," Geddes says.
Of *****, Geddes says he's only been around with ************* for a couple of years and "he pushes the edge".
>"It's only until recently that he's come out and said his numbers have been independently verified. Anyone who knows anything about the stock market knows it's very hard to get returns of more than 20 per cent (for an extended time). We all know you're going to get them wrong."
***** agrees. His returns, indeed everyone's returns, would be lower come the bear market, or even in a less bullish trading climate. But he still believes he will outperform his rivals.
While most of the big names in this burgeoning online advisory sector provide decent, if not spectacular research, his claims merit attention.
ASIC itself concedes there's a problem and has been stepping up its monitoring, according to executive director of compliance Jennifer O'Donnell. "It's been an area of increasing concern to us. The two big ones have been past performance and promised returns. We've been taking a fair bit of action behind the scenes but I'd suggest that now would be a good time for people to revisit the guidelines because our tolerance is starting to diminish," she says, citing aggressive advertising.
Even a cursory perusal of tipsheet advertising shows most of the top players sail close to the wind on the ASIC guidelines on Using Past Performance in Promotional Material.
"3.7 Million Reasons to take my FREE Offer," boasts the banner headline in a recent Huntleys' newspaper ad. "Our income portfolio made 190 per cent in just over five years," blares another. These headlines, from the most established player in the business, would appear to invite scrutiny. The ASIC guidelines, which warn against large-font headlines of selective past performance figures.
Aspect Huntley managing director Andrew Bird counters that the appropriate information is provided: "We are confident we are doing the right thing".
Then there's performance methodology; an area where there is plenty of wriggle room for the tipsheets to put a shine on their results for marketing purposes. ASIC discourages the industry from annualising results for trades of less than a year (10 per cent profit in a month becomes 120 per cent when annualised), and for not annualising trades of more than a year.
While Intelligent Investor eschews the practice, other mainstream players such as Fat Prophets do annualise. As expected, ***** is in a piping-hot rage about this: "I'm really pissed off. It states clearly in the rules you are not supposed to annualise. My results would be over 80 per cent!"
Like *****, the Rivkin Report's chief stock-picker Nigel Littlewood recommends fewer stocks to his clients and does not annualise results of less than a year. The advice is designed for investors to follow every recommendation. They get in and get out when they are told, rather than use the analysis to select their preferred investment.
The four largest players - Huntleys, Fat Prophets, Intelligent Investor and Australian Stock Report - make hundreds of recommendations a year which renders it unlikely, says *****, for the investor to follow them all and make a meaningful return. Returns tend to erode in a portfolio with too many stocks.
"We cover 250 stocks and we cover them at least four times a year," says Huntleys' Bird. "We don't publish on a completed trades basis."
Huntleys' is the country's oldest retail stock tipper, established by Ian Huntley in 1973. Huntley sold the business to Morningstar for $30 million. Clearly, top dollar was paid for Huntley's reputation even though Bird acknowledges the performance results have never been audited.
There is no questioning Huntley's reputation for decades of conservative, thoughtful advice, though there would be no way to monitor actual performance. Which leaves ***** on solid ground when he says, "It's big business now."
*****'s claims are cased in hardline language but he's not the only critic. The Rivkin Report's chief stockpicker, Nigel Littlewood, says extrapolating returns from a theoretical portfolio is pointless. "You can't buy every stock so you can't allocate capital," says Littlewood who has called for industry-wide standards for reporting and performance in the past. "It might sound arrogant but I consider us to be the leader in our sector."
Ironically, one of *****'s best recommendations has also been one of his greatest bugbears - the online broker ETrade. "Even though I hated ETrade, it was my top recommendation."
"Simple things like BHP's market cap are wrong. It's a joke. People rely on that information. They need it to be accurate. They (ETrade) don't include the UK listing (for BHP - it is dual-listed). The market cap is actually $162 billion. ETrade puts it at $96 billion. Research by AspectHuntley."
ETrade chairman Kerry Roxborough says the broker delivers the same feed to its clients as the institutional market and debunked *****'s criticism as a bid for notoriety.
"(Look at) the practice of ETrade giving free brokerage to parties like Fat Prophets in return for their endorsement. Fat Prophets then use it to entice customers to join. It's disgraceful," ***** says.
contd....
RichKid
14th-February-2007, 08:19 AM
....contd
Kerry Roxborough rejected all of *****'s claims saying investors had benefited by the emergence of independent research players and dismissed *****'s conflict of interest arguments. "There is no link between recommendations and remuneration arrangements with any of them," he says. "We are aware of *****'s newsletter and we are aware that he is critical of the research which ETrade offers to its customers and that ***** would like us to offer his research."
"I will never, ever have a commercial arrangement with any broker," says *****.
Intelligent Investor also has a tie up with ETrade. The quid pro quo says Greg Hoffman is advertising for content, as is the case for Fat Prophets.
"I feel like we are a restaurateur who gets compared to MacDonalds and Pizza Hut," says Hoffman. "We take our compliance very seriously".
Australian Stock Report promotes a number of products including the higher risk derivatives advice.
ASR could not provide a definitive response on its performance methodology and its website advertises an astonishing, though presumably selective, 408 per cent return on its "CFD Traders" product.
Fat Prophets's Geddes, ***** and Rivkin's Nigel Littlewood all say they would welcome the introduction of some sector standards to provide. As Fat Prophets auditor David Foster from WHK Greenwoods says: "I think for the consumer to compare apples with apples then a standard methodology should be adhered that included all providers in the market".
telstrareg
25th-April-2007, 12:27 AM
I pretty much always scoffed at these as merely a way for for the tipsters to profit from the hundreds of subscribers moving the market for them. However, in the interest of being open minded, would anyone like to offer some longer term experiences (eg. a year or more), positive or negative, with any of these companies?
The only ones I'm aware of at the moment are Australian Stock Report, fatProphets, Rivkin Report and Share Select.
investforwealth
25th-April-2007, 03:03 AM
The Stockwatch Report (http://www.stockwatchreport.com.au/) happily publishes a list containing all of their recommendations, not just the winners. The list is freely available on their website, along with some other reports pertaining to the performance of their recommendations.
I'm not a subscriber, but I've seen some of their reports. They recommend mostly short-term trades and don't just recommend shares, but options as well. They publish daily and move their stops on open positions each time they publish. I know it's not hard to pick winners in this kind of market, but I've heard they've been doing pretty well lately.
They currently have three open short-term trades (SRK, ACB, NXS), having held 6, 8 and 28 days. On current prices, those trades are up 11.82%, 22.66% and 20.47% respectively.
The report is fairly expensive though, compared to a lot of other tip sheets available. I suppose if you were just starting out and weren't able to conduct your own analysis but just had to invest directly in the market, they might be a decent place to start; they've certainly outperformed the index significantly since they began in 1992. They include an educational article with each issue and basically tell readers exactly how to conduct each trade, where to place a stop, when to get out, etc.
resourceboom
28th-April-2007, 01:06 AM
I've tried a few different tip sheets, one Im currently subscribing to is 10 bagger quarterly and they have a pretty good history.
bigdog
28th-April-2007, 09:43 AM
Looking for "endorsements" from subscribers to Fat Prophets.
Do you recommend subscribing to Fat Prophets?
Julia
28th-April-2007, 10:29 AM
Looking for "endorsements" from subscribers to Fat Prophets.
Do you recommend subscribing to Fat Prophets?
If you use E-trade you can access Fat Prophets for free.
greggy
28th-April-2007, 10:30 AM
The last time I subscribed to a tip sheet was the Huntley's Penny Share Guide back in 1993. On the back of A SPEC BUY recommendation I bought 40,000 Dochlyn Ltd shares at arond 20c each. Dochlyn were in the spa business. Within 6 months they went broke. Thanks very much Ian Huntley.
Never again. I get better ideas from this forum on which to do further research than from tipsheets. Buyer beware I say.
DYOR
nrodman
25th-June-2007, 07:13 PM
Anything positive that punters may have to help me justify the 30 bucks a month as I am a sceptic when it comes to share help sites::confused:
2020hindsight
26th-June-2007, 08:12 PM
nrodman,
IMO , paying for professional advice on how to bet on the share market is lol - "a low percentage shot" (as the tennis players might say) ....
lol - the worst bets I have made (by a country mile) are when I've listened to experts (other than ASF strangely enuf lol) - and worst of all when such experts all agreed (HDR, CDR, TEL, etc etc - the list goes on lol)
Just a bit of trivia set to rhyme... :-
My trading debts were based on bets that paid-for-experts sent
without a doubt their luck ran out, and west my money went
and worst of all, if two should call, and two such men agree
their rise will stall, their stocks will fall, you’ll lose I'll guarantee
PS I'll apologise for a post I make yesterday , since taken off ;)
RichKid
26th-June-2007, 09:35 PM
Quote:
My trading debts were based on bets that paid-for-experts sent
without a doubt their luck ran out, and west my money went
and worst of all, if two should call, and two such men agree
their rise will stall, their stocks will fall, you’ll lose I'll guarantee
I like the rhyme 2020!
Hi Nrodman, Checkout the other threads on tipsheets, try a search via the toolbar.
Chorlton
26th-June-2007, 10:14 PM
Anything positive that punters may have to help me justify the 30 bucks a month as I am a sceptic when it comes to share help sites::confused:
If you want to learn how to trade "profitably" in the markets, under your own direction, and if you're willing to spend $70 a month, I would highly recommend "The Chartist"...
Personally, its the best money I have ever spent.......
All IMO.......
RichKid
26th-June-2007, 10:32 PM
I haven't mentioned this before but www.stockradar.com.au is one very well priced trend-following TA based tipsheet which seems to be ideal for bullmarkets with its long only strategy and strong technical stops, simple and easy to understand.
I am not recommending it beyond saying that I found it very educational and transparent with a clear methodology. You need to find something which suits your profile. I look at their free newsletter every now and again for trading ideas. Worth a look imo for chartists.
btw, I have no affiliation with Stockradar, haven't even subscribed to it but I like the commentary and the value- $176 and $396 for 12 months (two levels of subscription). Anyway, there it is, feedback welcome, I'm always interested in studying different methods of trading the market. Stockradar reviews appear on www.egoli.com.au as well.
JackJackJack
3rd-December-2007, 06:10 PM
Hi All,
How much use are the Rivkin reports and the likes?
Does anyone subscribe to these?
Any Recommendations?
Thanks
Jack :)
bailz
3rd-December-2007, 11:25 PM
Hi Jack,
I subscribe to the Australian Stock Report (ASR) and trade CFDs. I have found it to be quite good, and reading the commentaries on each trade has helped me to understand the market better.
My trading capital on the other hand has taken a hit, due to me making some bad trades when starting out in the market..I didn't even use a chart, just looked at the price and if it 'looked like' it was going up or down, I would place a trade..scary stuff. I am glad I have been able to get through that period and retain some capital for trading. If it wasn't for the winning trades from the report, I would have no capital left.
I have read quite a few books: Van Tharp, Jack Schwager etc and am trying to put together my own trading system at the moment. The books have been fantastic in learning about trading.
My position on the reports is that if I make the money back that I spend on the report I will be happy to use them again next year, so far it looks promising to break even this year, could have been better if it wasn't for me making ridiculous speculative trades, I guess we have all been there once..
