ROC - Roc Oil Company

[GreatPig]

Thought I'd move this to its own thread.

Looking closer at this chart, it appears to have just broken out of an ascending triangle. According to the Edwards and Magee book, if it can pull away from there, the upward target is around $2 to $2.10.

Apparently these formations are quite reliable, with volume generally decreasing the further it goes towards the apex. However, an increase in volume might be expected once it starts to move, otherwise it might falter and fall instead.

Current price according to Yahoo is $1.70 with volume so far of 646,481.

Cheers,
GP

[still_in_school]

Hi GreatPig,

just be careful on this one, this is a short term and hisk risk stock, only just yesterday dumped the stock, but, have an order in, to buy back at 1.67, yet... becareful of that red engulfing shaven long candle.... the share, is still waiting upon confirmation of a reversal...

Cheers,
sis

[GreatPig]

sis,

Current price is $1.64, so it looks like it's slipping back into the triangle.

Perhaps a case of premature evacuation ;D.

GP

PS: and now back up to $1.66. Go, baby, go - you can do it!

[still_in_school]

Hi GreatPig,

Roc is a great stock to be trading at the moment, lots of volitilatiy and the support/resistance, is quite heavy on each side... though testing resistance at 1.80 is gonna be fun... just be weary though, if it doesnt, break resistance at 1.80, a nice double top, will appear and this stock will come back tumbling down...

(its still on an uptrend right now... below is the intraday chart..) but for this stock, currently have the stop loss set at 1.62, looking to sell at 1.73 is the profit target for the moment, though could sell cheaper, throughout the course of the day, but will be buying back as soon as the stock is sold out....

though, with the increase of oil prices, at newer heights each day... great stock to be moving in and out of...

Cheers,
sis

[still_in_school]

Roc Oil Company 5 minutes Intrady Chart

[still_in_school]

Roc Oil Company 10 minutes Intrady Chart

[still_in_school]

Roc Oil Company 30 minutes Intrady Chart

[still_in_school]

Hi GreatPig,

have just readjusted my stop loss for ROC at 1.62 to 1.55 now, the stock is still following the trend, currently its down trending and from its fall the other day and misjudging on when to re-enter, have reposition the stop loss at 1.55,

if the trend follows, as previously before and with the increase of oil, hopefully with the current trend and its predictions, the stock will trade down, to its trendline of about, 1.60, and bounce back up, and return back on course of trading near or above the 1.80 mark...

Cheers,
sis

[stefan]

You may consider the fact that one of the directors was selling shares at $1.78. I would take that as a warning sign. Especially as he obviously did the right thing considering the drop that followed.

Happy trading

Stefan

[still_in_school]

Hi Stefan,

thanks for the info, but just curious, how abouts did you come to that information?

Cheers,
sis

[stefan]

Sis,

Released on 12/08. Check ASX website:
A total of 181'472 ordinary shares comprising 21'472 ordinary shares at $1.78 held by Ferrier Hodgson Pty Liminted and 160'000 shares at $1.7763 held by Ferrier Hodgson Investments Pty Limited.

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[still_in_school]

Thanks Stefan...

... im glad for this forum board... :)

Cheers,
sis

[stefan]

Sis,

No problemo.


.. im glad for this forum board...
So am I... ;)

Does the director selling actually change your view in any way? Or do you still stick to your posting?

Just interested to read your opinion. Been watching ROC for a while but never traded it.

Happy trading

Stefan

[still_in_school]

Hi Stefan,

In all honestly, tomorrow morning between 10.00am - 10.30 am will dictate (normally, never ever trade till after 10.30 - personally have always waited for the market to settle, and then try to get a clearer depth of the market direction of a particular stock),

will try to gather the market direction/depth, but if there is a lack of volume and heavier buyers at a lower bid, could end up dumping the stock immediately, though, i did note last week there was a change of directors, and noted that the price did fall, that day, though i had no idea, that there was a director pumping and dumping his own stocks, since that day, do recall the market has been weaker, though its trending down from the 1.65 mark...

... though from, looking at the charts, my expectations, ... the T/A was showing that a downtrend was expected and that the stock would bounce back up off, 1.60 mark... and another bull market rally would follow, if the expected trend is to follow....

.... though, tomorrow morning will be sitting and ready to dump the stock, if there is some very bearish movement, if not, will stick to the T/A, .... and repostion all new conditional stop loss and resistance sells....

Cheers,
sis

ps.. Stefan, will post an update of the stock tomorrow morning, but... lol dont be surprise... if i dump the stock first thing in the morning, if there is downtrending gap... :)

[GreatPig]

if there is downtrending gap
Just what I need - a right-triangle that's not doing what it's supposed to ;).

GP

[stefan]

Sis,
LOL... If only one could check a website to see what's going to happen the next day.

So the chart is predicting a bounce at 1.6. Lets see what the market has to say about this.

Happy trading

Stefan

[JetDollars]

Does T/A really can predict like what you said SIS?

Can wait to see the result b/t 10:00AM to 10:30AM

[GreatPig]

Looks to be heading up again without reaching the bottom line of the triangle.

I think that's a good sign, in that it might continue to push up through the horizontal line at $1.69 again soon.

Cheers,
GP

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

still holding on too position, not much change, but current trend prediction seems to be still falling into place, though there is some bullish rallies that are going through and trying to drive the price back up... (personally i dont see that sustainable, IMHO the trend is being set.)

current intraday chart below shows the heavy support and resistance at the 1.65/1.66 mark

[still_in_school]

Current Market Depth,

some big fish players on either side...

Cheers,
sis

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

ROC, is nearing its trendline... volume picking up... should see some upside bullishness coming through... very, very soon...

Cheers,
sis

[Redwing]

Where to from here ?

North or South?

REDWING

[brerwallabi]

It's slowly been trending up from May, I'll put on my list for Monday - but North, South or sidewards.

[GreatPig]

Redwing,

ROC has been in an ascending triangle for a while now. It tried to break out up-side, but keeps falling back in.

Don't know which way it will ultimately go yet.

Cheers,
GP

[Redwing]

Thanks for the charts guy's..

After the last two price movement's on the chart ( the double highs) i'm wondering whether it will 'fall' again or coninue on it's upward trend. They seem to have held value, and have growth prospects even considering it's recent loss?


after a quick look i found-

Activity Summary - Roc Oil (ROC) is a Sydney-based international petroleum exploration and production company. The principal production asset is the Saltfleetby gas field in the UK, while the group has a very broad exploration portfolio including acreage in Western Australia, Mauritania, Equatorial Guinea, Angola and China. The Cliff Head oil discovery offshore Perth and Chinguetti offshore Mauritania should come on-stream in 2006, while Tiof could start in 2008.



REDWING

[brerwallabi]

Looks like ROC couldl be one for the future, I get nervous though with companies that spread themselves around the globe in countries that are not exactly stable. Obviously you are looking for something long term there are however a lot of things that can happen between now and 2008. Who knows what the next couple of months will be like, I am getting out of most things apart from a few specs and a few with divvies. I think i'll come back in a bit later this year when a few better opporunities may be around , although I will definately keep a close eye on ROC maybe a few quick bucks can be made who knows. There are thousands of stocks and opportunities its just a matter of chosing the right ones - good luck.

[still_in_school]

Hi Guys,

have been trading ROC last month quite very frequently, this month have touched the stock, its just not moving, T/A to me in the recent week hasnt been to interesting, will jump back on this stock, in later times, when the T/A and signs of positive trading growth... are looking strong and when the uptrend is much more clearer...

Cheers,
sis

[Redwing]

I believe it will move upwards again.. i believe it's mixed up withWoodside in the drilling off Mauritania due in Sept.

may have 'potential'?

REDWING

[RichKid]

Spot on RedWing. IMO, the market seems to be awaiting the drilling (to start in a few weeks from what I recall).

Hardman Resources & ROC etc will probably have a jittery ride as the results come through as they are not as diversified as Woodside. Hopefully the first news will be positive- BUT YOU NEVER CAN TELL!!!

So everyone's being cautious. Look at what happened to Hardman HDR last month! It still hasn't recovered although everyone knows it's going to break $2 at some stage since it has so many interests around the world and at least some of the drilling will be positive considering the extent of the activity. Roc has a much smaller stake but it looks like it's got further to run, judging by the recent uptrend- all depends on the news.

RichKid

[Redwing]

Wait and see game...


REDWING

[stefan]

FYI:
The Mauritania drilling starts today on the west navigator and shortly after the 15th next week on the stena tay.

Have a nice weekend

PS: Holding HDR.

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[RichKid]

Yep, saw the newsrelease too. lots of movement to be expected over the next few weeks in all the shares related to the venture. Funny how Roc fell on the news, maybe just jittery investors getting out and clearing the decks for what's to come (ie another shot at the resistance level). I like HDR too but maybe ROC has more upside? Might post more on HDR in the other thread.

RichKid

[brerwallabi]

Lot of buyers and not too many sellers, I've taken the plunge at $1.64 waiting in the queue currently, the more I check this company out the more you find its not just Africa. Even if Mauritania is not as expected there is other potential, but the expectation seems to be that Mauritania will be positive.
Lets see.

[brerwallabi]

Out this afternoon @ 1.69 a nice little pick up, did not expect it to fire up so quick, if I had been here I might have got 1.70/71 well thats life. Will look for some weakness tomorrow - I say that with a lot of hope though.

[brerwallabi]

ROC hit a high of 1.78 today although close was at 1.74 still not a bad move in a week does anyone have any further opinion on ROC i.e. does anyone see $2.00, HDR seemed to really kick today as well, see you all next week having a few days off.

[markrmau]

Hi,
I sold all my roc after they released their annual report about 6-8 week ago. Clearly this was the wrong thing to do. Does anyone know why it is so popular? The annual report looked aweful to me. However the analysts still rate it as strong buy.

[stefan]

I have no idea what the annual report said, but I would say that the popularity is because ROC is part of the Woodside, Hardman joint exploration group currently drilling in Mauritania. Oil is in high demand and as such, oil stocks will get some attention. ROC is in its early stages and therefore obviously considered good value for money by investors as long as they keep finding oil. I don't follow it at all, but I do hold HDR so I know that they are part of the drilling project which currently gets some good result.

Happy trading

Stefan

[GreatPig]

Thar she blows...

Now ain't that a pretty sight :)

Cheers,
GP

[I hold]

[chennyleeeee]

I was hoping for some more recent information on ROC but it doesnt seem to be. The last post is 2 years apart. :eek7: Well I'am a heavy believer in postive cash flows. If i dont see it or there isnt a high chance there will be in future, I dont put my money in it, not for long term neway. ROC seems a little disappointing on their last financial report side but their future seems very lucrative. Many a companies are tied with ROC ventures and ROC has a substantial stake in most of them. Their share price has gone up regardless of what has happened to the rest of the market in recent weeks. Once the volatility dies down and some bargain hunters and ex-sellers return to the market, flooding the buy side we might see ROC reach even higher levels. I think only one oil field is currently in production Cliff Head Oil Field which IMO eases off the belief that being valued at nearly 1 billion, isnt too highly overvalued.

Time will tell if I'm wrong or not.

CHEN

[GreatPig]

I've been keeping an eye on them too. Looking for a decent push above $4.50 or so.

Cheers,
GP

[doctorj]

It's interesting that most of the junior oilers are looking much stronger the last couple of days.

[peacesell'sbutwho'sbuying]

HI every one,

has any one got any opinions on Roc i bought 35000 shares at the recent low of 3.20 i have made money on and off with Roc but with the election in the states and there recent share offering on offer, i am unsure if i should sell and get out at the next up. a bit too much going for me to see a clear picture?

cheer's

[doctorj]

What time frame do you invest over?

If its long term, you need to discount short term movements accordingly.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

ROC is my only oil play ATM. I will be taking part in the share offer and am long term on them, trade them also although not in the last month, just been buying, their cheap ATM.

Good management, good exploration and plenty of potential, just been hammered by the oil correction. I'm bullish on oil long term and I think ROC's the best play.

Only my opinion though.

[peacesell'sbutwho'sbuying]

i'm pretty bad it all seems to be short term.... it's bit like my relationships with women.

[doctorj]

OK.

So short term.... less than 3 months perhaps.

Why did you buy?

[peacesell'sbutwho'sbuying]

well,

i have been watching it and trying to chart it (only new at it) for a while, bought and sold it at the last low and then bought Lhg at its low and sold it but sold about 30cents to early but happy with what i made now just playing with Roc agin and thinking of buying in the share offer, and also i need some extera cash to finish my car.

[doctorj]

If you post your chart and some notes on why and when you entered, there are many talented people here that may volunteer some thoughts and may even discuss exit planning for your current position.

[peacesell'sbutwho'sbuying]

my charting is nothing special, its just that roc has a lot of debt and is trying raise capital by 20th, so my thoughts are that it will have short rise and then drop back a bit.

[siempre33]

ROC.AX: siempre33, this looks way too depressed....

LONDON (AFX) - Roc Oil Company Ltd said developmental costs at Blane Oil Field, located in the North Sea, are likely to increase 20 pct from previous estimates to 250 mln stg due to exceptional weather conditions and delayed construction work.

The company also said these problems mean it is now likely that first oil production from the Blane field will slip to the third quarter of 2007, but it added that Enoch Oil field's first production is on schedule for the second quarter.
For Enoch Oil and Gas Field, also located in the North Sea, the company expects total development costs to increase to 100 mln stg, a 7.5 pct increase over the prior estimate made last November.

The Sydney and AIM-listed Roc Oil said Chinguetti-18 development well in Mauritania is ready for production and is being brought onstream.

The completion of the well, which currently has gross production of about 24,000 BOPD, was delayed due to "mechanical difficulties", the company added.

On Cliff Head Oil Field in Australia, the company said it is producing at a relatively steady rate, generally between 8,000 and 9,000 barrels of oil per day (BOPD), from four of the six designated oil producers.

Roc Oil said it expects to undertake a planned workover at Cliff Head in April without major interruption to production.

newsdesk@afxnews.com kkb/pmi/slm

[GREENS]

Why is everyone so quiet on this stock? ROC is approaching a very interesting and potentially significant growth phase with the share price bouncing 22% of its 52 week low over the past month.

Apart from ROC's already producing oil fields Cliff head (37.5%), Zhao Dong (24.5%) and Chinguetti (3.25%) with ROC currently averaging 9000 BOPD:

Blane and Enoch although relatively small oil fields are coming into production over the next few months (Enoch should come on stream some time this week). Although roc only has a small 12.5% & 12% interest respectively, it provides some increased revenue streams for all their exploration and development activities going on.

Drilling is just about the commence in Onshore Angola, and no one needs to be told the massive potential this hydrocarbon province possesses. NOT saying roc is certain to find oil, but with a little bit of luck, the impact on roc would likely be significant. Surely someone has some views on the Angola exploration!!!!!!!

Apart from this there is the Beibu Gulf which ROC has so far drilled 2 wells at a 100% success rate, where drilling will recommence at the end of the year and development/investment decision will likely be given the final green light. (20% interest given CNOOC exercises its right to 51% participation).

Future development of the Zhao Dong (i.e. C4 area of the ZD block) where first oil is expected around the late 2008 (approx net roc: 1150 BOPD) + additional upside in the development of the extended reach again in the ZD block.

With plenty more exploration acreage in Equatorial Guinean, Deep water Madagascar, Mauritania, Offshore W.A and Zhao Dong.

This is no way intended to be taken as financial advice or change people’s views on the company in any way, but rather as a means of further discussion for those who follow the company. I personally believe roc is one of only a handful of undervalued companies running around on the ASX at the moment and I think the institutional investors have realized this as well with CBA and Merrill Lynch increasing their stake in the company in recent times. Below I have attached a rough valuation of Roc Oil based on the PV of expected cash flows over the next couple of years, however this does not take into account any exploration upside (such as Angola, Beibu Gulf etc) most assumptions are written in. The NPM increases from 07-08 because of lower expenditure on UK development, Cliff Head and Angola.

Personally I beleive I am currently paying nothing for the massive upside potenial that roc has on offer and have held for just over a year now with an average entery price of $2.95.

[BSD]

Good analysis and welcome aboard

I will check my numbers tomorrow to get a feel for your 07 and 08 production forecasts.

As for an opinion on Angola (!)

It looks like elephant country to me and some geo guys I know have been very keen to see some early results. The ROC guys have a great track record.

The deep discount share purchase plan to fund ZD took the steam out of ROC's rise - perhaps its time for a decent rally?

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Why is everyone so quiet on this stock? ROC is approaching a very interesting and potentially significant growth phase with the share price bouncing 22% of its 52 week low over the past month.

Apart from ROC's already producing oil fields Cliff head (37.5%), Zhao Dong (24.5%) and Chinguetti (3.25%) with ROC currently averaging 9000 BOPD:

Blane and Enoch although relatively small oil fields are coming into production over the next few months (Enoch should come on stream some time this week). Although roc only has a small 12.5% & 12% interest respectively, it provides some increased revenue streams for all their exploration and development activities going on.

Drilling is just about the commence in Onshore Angola, and no one needs to be told the massive potential this hydrocarbon province possesses. NOT saying roc is certain to find oil, but with a little bit of luck, the impact on roc would likely be significant. Surely someone has some views on the Angola exploration!!!!!!!

Apart from this there is the Beibu Gulf which ROC has so far drilled 2 wells at a 100% success rate, where drilling will recommence at the end of the year and development/investment decision will likely be given the final green light. (20% interest given CNOOC exercises its right to 51% participation).

Future development of the Zhao Dong (i.e. C4 area of the ZD block) where first oil is expected around the late 2008 (approx net roc: 1150 BOPD) + additional upside in the development of the extended reach again in the ZD block.

With plenty more exploration acreage in Equatorial Guinean, Deep water Madagascar, Mauritania, Offshore W.A and Zhao Dong.

This is no way intended to be taken as financial advice or change people’s views on the company in any way, but rather as a means of further discussion for those who follow the company. I personally believe roc is one of only a handful of undervalued companies running around on the ASX at the moment and I think the institutional investors have realized this as well with CBA and Merrill Lynch increasing their stake in the company in recent times. Below I have attached a rough valuation of Roc Oil based on the PV of expected cash flows over the next couple of years, however this does not take into account any exploration upside (such as Angola, Beibu Gulf etc) most assumptions are written in. The NPM increases from 07-08 because of lower expenditure on UK development, Cliff Head and Angola.

Personally I beleive I am currently paying nothing for the massive upside potenial that roc has on offer and have held for just over a year now with an average entery price of $2.95.

Yes a very nice post Greens. Quality to be exact.
Are you looking at holding beyond 08?
BSD will do some crunching. Interesting to see the difference - if any.

Snake

[waz]

Great work Greens

What made you choose the exchange rate of 0.78 in 07 and 0.8 in 08.

My opinion is that it should be the other way around. looks like it could be awhile this year before the exchange rate drops below 80c.

It would be good to see your figures with a high/low exchange rate

[bigdog]

Todays "The Chartist" covers ROC which you wil find interesting

http://www.projectstreamer.com/users/reefcap/210507_roc/210507_roc.html

Laymans Analysis
21/5/07:
Since November last year ROC has been in a sideways holding pattern although technicians call this a "basing" pattern that is considered very bullish for longer term holders. This base was finally broken back on May 4th with a nice high volume breakout. We've now seen come consolidation and I think it only a matter of time before ROC takes its next leg higher. This small area of consolidation has been on declining volume, like a "breather" if you like, gaining momentum before moving higher. Today showed positive price and volume characteristics so the next break could be along any day. An aggressive trader could buy now with a stop back below $3.25. A more conservative trader would wait for a break up through $3.55 before entering and place a protective stop below $3.40. If this base is the start of something large, then longer term active investors should also consider positions here with stops back below $3.25 or lower should you want some wiggle room. I will make a formal recommendation for the Model Portfolio to BUY at xxxx. Place a stop at xxxx.

Technical Discussion
21/5/07:
The immediate Elliott Wave count suggests this minor wave-v will take prices through to $3.80 to $4.00. Its termination will also see the intermediate degree wave-3 complete but ultimately we should see ROC push toward $4.50 through June to July. The seasonal trend suggests the current sideways phase (Grey) will complete on or about May 24, just a few days away, then we'll see strength through to June 6. It is suggested that this will be the minor degree wave- v period that will take prices toward the $3.80 - $4.00 zone. From June 6 through June 28 we normally see a sideways non-directional period so this would fit the larger degree wave-4 formation. With wave-2 being sharp we should expect wave-4 to be complex and take some time. Elliott Wave and seasonals aside, there is significant support now at the breakout level of $3.27. Whilst it is possible that it may come back into play it would still be deemed a bullish scenario. To remain completely confident with the bullish outlook, especially from a timing perspective, I would not wish to see prices re-enter that basing pattern.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Bigdog,

Isn't that copyright material?

As I have been following ROC for a while I see it has some interest going into it today and yesterday after a cool off which I like to see in advances.

[canaussieuck]

Todays "The Chartist" covers ROC which you wil find interesting

http://www.projectstreamer.com/users/reefcap/210507_roc/210507_roc.html

Laymans Analysis
21/5/07:
Since November last year ROC has been in a sideways holding pattern although technicians call this a "basing" pattern that is considered very bullish for longer term holders. This base was finally broken back on May 4th with a nice high volume breakout. We've now seen come consolidation and I think it only a matter of time before ROC takes its next leg higher. This small area of consolidation has been on declining volume, like a "breather" if you like, gaining momentum before moving higher. Today showed positive price and volume characteristics so the next break could be along any day. An aggressive trader could buy now with a stop back below $3.25. A more conservative trader would wait for a break up through $3.55 before entering and place a protective stop below $3.40. If this base is the start of something large, then longer term active investors should also consider positions here with stops back below $3.25 or lower should you want some wiggle room. I will make a formal recommendation for the Model Portfolio to BUY at xxxx. Place a stop at xxxx.

Technical Discussion
21/5/07:
The immediate Elliott Wave count suggests this minor wave-v will take prices through to $3.80 to $4.00. Its termination will also see the intermediate degree wave-3 complete but ultimately we should see ROC push toward $4.50 through June to July. The seasonal trend suggests the current sideways phase (Grey) will complete on or about May 24, just a few days away, then we'll see strength through to June 6. It is suggested that this will be the minor degree wave- v period that will take prices toward the $3.80 - $4.00 zone. From June 6 through June 28 we normally see a sideways non-directional period so this would fit the larger degree wave-4 formation. With wave-2 being sharp we should expect wave-4 to be complex and take some time. Elliott Wave and seasonals aside, there is significant support now at the breakout level of $3.27. Whilst it is possible that it may come back into play it would still be deemed a bullish scenario. To remain completely confident with the bullish outlook, especially from a timing perspective, I would not wish to see prices re-enter that basing pattern.

:eek:

I've seen Nick post a few of his reviews but this is the first time i've seen someone else post one!

I don't think he'll be happy about this.

Cheers,

[GreatPig]

With regard to copyrighted material, it's interesting that that only seems to be of concern when the author is a forum member.

On other forums I frequent, nearly everything that's quoted here from external articles would be deleted by the mods for copyright reasons.

GP

[It's Snake Pliskin]

With regard to copyrighted material, it's interesting that that only seems to be of concern when the author is a forum member.

On other forums I frequent, nearly everything that's quoted here from external articles would be deleted by the mods for copyright reasons.

GP

Yes but he pays for that video and only the author has the right to post it.

What is your take on ROC GP? are you holding yet?

[It's Snake Pliskin]

No stress here. It was the free chart of the week so it can be distributed.





This post may contain advice that has been prepared by Reef Capital Coaching ABN 24 092 309 978 (“RCC”) and is general advice and does not take account of your objectives, financial situation or needs. Before acting on this general advice you should therefore consider the appropriateness of the advice having regard to your situation. We recommend you obtain financial, legal and taxation advice before making any financial investment decision.

Past performance is not a reliable indication of future performance. This material has been prepared based on information believed to be accurate at the time of publication. Subsequent changes in circumstances may occur at any time and may impact the accuracy of the information.


Nick,

What a dandy generous thing - free chart of the week.
Good work.:) did you buy ROC by the way?

[GREENS]

BSD…lol, yep definitely looks like elephant country to me. The Roc team have a good track record lets just hope luck is on there side with this one. I am interested to see how your production forecasts and general analysis turned out. It is always good to have some external constructive views in order to make the valuation potentially more accurate. The Rights issue definitely was a drag on the SP for a while, but was only a matter of time before it got moving again.

Also very interesting to read Nicks T/A views (they are much appreciated), although I only use very very simplistic T/A, I strongly agree that roc would most likely gain support at around the $3.30 mark if there is a general market pullback, but don’t think a temporary pull back to the main support level around or just above $2.80 could be completely ruled out if dry wells are drilled in Angola. If roc does strike oil then as John Doran stated in the AGM the value to roc could potentially be in the $’s.

Snake I will most definitely be holding onto Roc well beyond 08 even if all wells in Angola are dry given its diversified portfolio potential. If all wells in Angola turn out to be dry then I am expecting an over reaction on the down side because many traders would be holding this purely for the speculation of success in Angola. But based on just its earnings flows over the next few years the share price should bounce back relatively quickly. I gain confidence in this decision given my analysis gives roc a PV, just from production earnings and not taking into a/c exploration of around $3.70 (NOTE: given some key assumptions hold: oil price, NPM). However realistically whether or not I will continue to hold roc beyond 08 all depends on whether circumstances change (e.g. if management change etc)

The main reason that 09 earnings were not forecasted was because I would be coming up with unrealistic figures, it would just be a guessing game; there are just too many unknown variables to take into a/c such as:
•When (that is if) will Beibu Gulf come into production and at how many BOPD
•What will be the rate of flow (BOPD) coming from the development of the extended reach at ZD
•Will there be problems that will cause already producing fields to shut down

Waz this analysis was done at the start of the year, while some aspects have been changed; I had not updated the ER, but definitely a good point to be made. I changed the ER to 0.82 for 07 & 08 and the effect on Rocs EPS was very minimal, not even a whole 1c downward change in EPS.

Also is anyone else a little worried about Enoch (which roc is not the operator), it has been pushed back from start up at the end of 1Q to the start of 2Q then was meant to be due last week and now when, does anyone have any idea (hopefully this week)!! If production is anything like this development phase it’s not looking promising, hope I will be proved wrong.

[BSD]

Comments Re: GREENY's analysis. (I PENNED THIS PRE THE ABOVE POST)

Looks reasonable.

WACC looks spot on and cannot disagree violently with the WTIS/AUDUSD assumptions

The net profit margins in the model are very conservative; but in lieu of continued exploration success, the 16 times multiple for 08 earnings could be a touch high.

While ROC is an excellent explorer a lower PE may be more appropriate for conservatism. They have reserves of about 5 years of production in reserve. Of course, they can uplift a lot of this with drilling success.

In any case, I reckon they could do NPAT of ~$100m (with $50m of exploration expense) in 2008

Using 10 times, (a round number, not scientific), you get a $1bn cap or $4.62 - with a present value of about $3.35 per share (9%). Not a bad base case and this aligns with some broker NPVs.

Angola (and other expansion) is not included in this and ROC have some massive expectations for this prospect.

From the research I have at-hand, analysts are not having a hard time getting a figure of $0.50-$0.70+ per share for exploration upside out of ROC in excess of their DCF vals.

This is giving 'price targets' in excess of the current price.

The US driving season usually gives the oil price a wriggle-on (they are the only oil consuming nation in their mind) so the underlying momentum could be great for ROC getting traction if they hit a solid oil column in Angola

I would note that I am an "Oil Muppet" and are far better placed to comment on base metals!

[GreatPig]

Yes but he pays for that video and only the author has the right to post it.
While not all the other material may be paid for, the author's (or possibly publisher's) permission is also required to repost it. Just because material is freely available on the Internet, doesn't mean you're free to repost it at will.


What is your take on ROC GP? are you holding yet?
My take looks like this (attached chart), and yes, I'm holding.

GP

[GREENS]

BSD looks good at a quick glance; I will have a better look tomorrow when I have more time. I see your point with the reduced PE and it’s a good one. My view on 16 as a multiple was made on the basis that the energy sector historically averages around 13-15 and Roc could potentially extend the life with drilling of Zhao Dong in 07, develop Beibu and still provide exploration upside in 08, thus incorporating a conservative factor of growth into the PE multiple for 08.

On something else which is off the topic of Roc and on to base metals, I was after some advice in regards to a question I have on valuing zinc stocks; I will post the comment in the CBH folder, if you wouldn’t mind answering.

[GREENS]

BSD I have had a closer look at your analysis, I don’t quite understand how you got a FV value for 08 of $4.62, not trying to criticise it in anyway just trying to get a feel for how you got your numbers, I could be completely wrong here (as I am relatively new and continuing to learn many aspects of stock valuation) but this is how I took your figures:

•You used a multiple of 10 and NPAT of $100m, which gives a market cap of $1billion. Given a market cap of $1billion you divide it by the no of shares on issue (298m) and get a 08 value of $3.36 don’t you?

i.e. 10*$100m = $1billion market cap
1000/298 = $3.35 (future 08 value of rocs SP not taking into a/c exploration upside)

Then depending on the frequency of compounding method, you would get a PV of

1.3.36*(1.09)^-2 = 2.82 + PV of exploration upside
2.3.36*e^ (-0.09*2) = 2.805 + “……..”

As you recommended the PE multiple could be lower than the figure I used (16), given the relatively short production life of roc’s assets at the present time.

Again has anyone heard anything in regards to Enoch start up it was meant to be on stream last week?

[bigdog]

SP this morning up 5 cents after ANN

ROC $3.42 +$0.05 +1.48% 87,497 share $298,202 28-May 10:38:29

ASX ANN today

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00724577

28 May 2007
ROC OIL COMPANY LIMITED ("ROC")
STOCK EXCHANGE RELEASE
DRILLING ACTIVITY UPDATE: OFFSHORE PERTH BASIN EXPLORATION DRILLING - PERSEVERANCE-1
Roc Oil (WA) Pty Limited advises that, as of 0600 hrs Australian Western Standard Time on 28 May 2007, an extensive wireline evaluation programme had been completed at the Perseverance-1 exploration well and the well has been plugged and abandoned as a gas discovery.

Preliminary interpretation of drilling, wireline and pressure data indicates that the well intersected gas saturated sand over a gross interval of 31 metres within which there are 28 metres of net gas reservoir. The gas accumulation is at the top of the objective Permian section, interpreted as being equivalent to the Dongara Sandstone and possibly the upper Irwin River Coal Measures. Reservoir quality appears to be poor to moderate.

The Perseverance discovery is located in WA-325-P in the offshore Perth Basin, approximately 33 km west of Geraldton. The structure has a maximum vertical relief of approximately 80 metres and is apparently gas-filled. Initial calculations for the accumulation suggest in-place gas in the range of 20 - 50 BCF.

The forward programme for the Premium "Wilcraft" rig is to start drilling the final well in the three well programme, Dunsborough-1 in WA-286-P, approximately 50 km southeast of Perseverance-1 and 25 km northwest of Frankland-1, later this week.

Participating Interests in WA-325-P are:
Roc Oil (WA) Pty Ltd (Operator)........................................ .........37.5%
Apache Northwest Pty Limited........................................... ........37.5%
ARC (Offshore PB) Limited........................................... .............20.0%
Wandoo Petroleum Pty Ltd. (Mitsui & Co Group of Companies)...........5.0%*

[bigdog]

SP up today after ASX ann
ROC $3.39 +$0.09 +2.73% 326,353 shares $1,097,580 @ 12-Jun 11:22:40

ROC 10:58 AM AWE's ann: Dunsborough-1 Discovers Oil
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00728829

Roc Oil (WA) Pty Ltd (Operator) 37.5% share

June 12, 2007
AWE’s Dunsborough-1 discovers oil
AWE, reports that the Dunsborough-1 exploration well, in WA-286-P, in the offshore Perth Basin, has been drilled to a total depth of 1,755 metres and has been classified as a new field oil and gas discovery.

Preliminary interpretation of the comprehensive electric logging suite, including the collection of fluid samples, suggests that the well has drilled a minimum 25 metre gross hydrocarbon column of which approximately 18 metres is net pay.

The accumulation appears to have a small (< 13 metres) gross gas column above an oil column containing light oil (approximately 40 deg API) in sands of poor to moderate reservoir quality. Pressure data indicate that the total gross hydrocarbon column associated with the Dunsborough structure may be up to 70 metres.

Tentative volumetric estimates by the Operator suggest that the structure could contain between 20 and 40 million barrels of oil in - place.

As of 0600 hours today, the current operation at Dunsborough-1 was preparing to plug and abandon the well in accordance with the pre-drill schedule. Dunsborough-1, located approximately 25 km south of Geraldton, Western Australia and about 50 km northwest of the Cliff Head Oil Field, is the final well in an offshore Perth Basin drilling programme which was initiated in early April.

Participants in WA 286 P are:
AWE 27.5%
Roc Oil (WA) Pty Ltd (Operator) 37.5%
Wandoo Petroleum Pty Ltd * 24.0%
Arc (Offshore PB) Limited 6.0%
CIECO Exploration and Production (Australia) Pty Ltd 5.0%

[GREENS]

There is some potential here; hopefully with some luck if there are some more discoversies in close proximity to these already known discoveries (i.e. side track wells), Roc and co ventures could make these commercial. Although they are small discoveries in relative terms, shows the potenial of offshore WA, in which Roc has a solid interest in.

Commenting on the three well programme ROC’s Chief Executive Officer, John Doran stated that:


“It is always nice to drill three offshore exploration wells and make three discoveries, particularly when that extends the known oil and gas fields some 200 kilometres along regional strike to the northwest of the Cliff Head Oil Field. However, at the end of the day we’re not looking to play with exploration success statistics but rather to clock up commercial success - and it will take some time to establish whether or not we have done that.


Of the three discoveries, Frankland and Dunsborough look as if they have the best chance of being developed, while Perserverance will probably need a lot of good things to happen around it if is going to make the grade.


Whatever the details, it would seem that an exploration programme that was regarded by ROC as the last throw of the dice in the northern offshore Perth Basin, has certainly provided enough success to cause us to move the discoveries on to the appraisal stage and continue to explore around and on trend from them.” (www.rocoil.com.au)

[GREENS]

Market doesnt seee this as anything to special for ROC, rising only around 2% in a general up market and considering it took a beating in fri trading, down 5%. While AWE and ARQ on the other hand, co ventures in the tenants have risen much higher in intraday trading up around 3% & 6% respectively. :sly:

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Market doesnt seee this as anything to special for ROC, rising only around 2% in a general up market and considering it took a beating in fri trading, down 5%. While AWE and ARQ on the other hand, co ventures in the tenants have risen much higher in intraday trading up around 3% & 6% respectively. :sly:

I have been dissapointed with ROC since taking a long entry. Today I closed my position at a small loss to put it into something else. Those long spikes, and large volume on Friday don't look too inspiring to stay with a long position. I may be wrong but it is still going down.

What is all the volatility telling us?

[GREENS]

Found this article on Roc and other oilers the other day on the net, although fairly negative on Roc I thought it was quite interesting and thought other holders of Roc may want to have a read. Personally I have never heard of this guy and have no idea of his reputation or track record…He makes some good points but think some of his other points are little off skew...make up your on mind.

http://www.stockanalysis.com.au/samples/sample2.pdf

[bigdog]

SP this morning hit high of $3.46

Currently ROC $3.25 +$0.47 +16.91% high $3.46 and low $3.25 1,672,961 shares $5,667,352 @ 30-Aug 10:16:48

ASX ann today
30/08/2007 Exploration Update- Massambala Oil Discovery, Onshore Angola
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00753850

Roc Oil (Cabinda) Company, a wholly owned subsidiary of ROC, is pleased to advise that the Massambala-1CH2 sidetrack hole has reached a prognosed total depth of 491 metres and wireline and coring programmes have been completed. The sidetrack hole was drilled to evaluate a shallow oil zone intersected by Massambala-1, ROC’s first exploration well in Angola.

On 27 August 2007, Massambala-1CH2 was suspended for possible re-entry in order to determine the commercial merit of the discovery. Laboratory analyses have been initiated with regard to the fluid and core samples obtained from the sidetrack well and results are expected during the next several weeks. In the meantime, a preliminary interpretation of currently available data provides the following insights:

The oil is mobile, not residual.
Visually, the oil appears to be heavy and viscous, but definitive comment must await laboratory analysis. In any event, the oil seems to bear comparison to many crudes that are currently being routinely produced in other parts of the world via standard heavy oil industry production techniques.
Although there appears to be a 1 to 2 metre oil sand higher in the section, the sidetrack confirmed that the main zone of interest is a 16 metre gross oil column with approximately 15 metres (94%) of net oil saturated sand with good to excellent reservoir qualities and an associated wireline log anomaly.


At the depth of the shallow oil accumulation, approximately 400 metres, the Massambala feature is currently mapped on 3D seismic data as a gentle four-way dip structure with a vertical relief in the order of 16 metres at the well which is located a few metres below the structure’s high point. As currently mapped, the area of structural closure is approximately 26 sq km/6,400 acres and based on an apparent oil-water contact identified in the well, it would seem that the shallow Massambala structure is filled to spill.

It is far too early to comment specifically on potential recoverable reserves at Massambala but volumetric calculations, based on the most recent 3D seismic mapping and available well data, suggest the in-place oil resource potential could be in the order of 170 MMBO. In a more generic sense and subject to specific field details, heavy oil recovery techniques can recover a minimum of 10% of the oil in-place, often about 20% and sometimes considerably more.

Participating Interests in the Cabinda South Block are:
ROC Group Companies (Operator) 60%
Force Petroleum Limited 20%
Sonangol P&P S.A. 20%

[Ken]

what are we valuing ROC oil at?

Are we looking at the next Major oil producer here?


Ranking

WPL
STO
AED
ROC

???

[bigdog]

ASX ann today
30/08/2007 Half Yearly Report and Accounts
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00753975

SP currently ROC $3.23 +$0.45 +16.19&#37; with high $3.46

Report reads VG

2007 HALF YEAR FINANCIAL RESULTS SUMARY
Today, ROC releases its half year financial report and appendix 4D for the period ended 30 June 2007. In the accompanying Financial Statements, ROC is required to compare its 1H2007 results with the equivalent figures for the corresponding period last year. However, the rapid organic and acquisitive growth of the Company in the last twelve months generated several near record results during 1H2007 that render comparisons between the two periods largely meaningless. The key points pertaining to the 1H2007 results include:

• Production of 1.6 MMBOE from five fields, compared to 0.3 MMBOE from two fields in 1H2006.
• Net Sales Revenue of $100.8 million, up $83.2 million on $17.6 million in 1H2006.
• Trading Profit of $45.0 million, up $40.9 million on $4.1 million profit in 1H2006.
• Cash Flow from operating activities $58.9 million, up $61.8 million, a significant improvement on a negative $2.9 million cash flow in 1H2006.
• Net Loss after income tax of $8.8 million, a $13.4 million improvement on the loss of $22.2 million in 1H2006.
• EBITDAX of $67.3 million, up $63.7 million on $3.6 million in 1H2006.
• Per barrel production costs of $10.19/BOE ($16.0 million), a $1.29/BOE (11%) improvement on $11.48/BOE in 1H2006.
• Amortisation of $27.76/BOE ($43.6 million) in 1H2007 compared to $22.89/BOE in 1H2006.
• Exploration and appraisal expenditure of $52.3 million was incurred mainly in relation to drilling four exploration wells, the pre-drill preparatory work, including rig mobilisation, for the Angolan drilling and seismic programmes and the acquisition of potentially high impact exploration acreage in offshore Madagascar. Exploration drilling resulted in four discoveries from four wells, three of which, are considered to have commercial potential: Frankland and Dunsborough, offshore Australia and Massambala, onshore Angola.
• All of the $52.3 million in exploration costs has been expensed in accordance with ROC’s "successful efforts" accounting policy because the three discoveries require appraisal work and therefore cannot presently be demonstrated to be commercial on a stand alone basis.
• Development expenditure of $37.0 million incurred, reflecting the completion and commissioning of the Enoch Oil and Gas Field and progress towards completion of the Blane Oil Field, both in the North Sea, as well as the commencement of work on
the Incremental Development Plan for the Zhao Dong C & D Oil Fields, Bohai Bay, Offshore China.
• A cash flow gain of $5.0 million was realised as a result of hedge contracts being settled. However, during 1H2007 ROC ceased hedge accounting on the majority of its hedge book in order to maintain compliance with the technical requirements of the Australian accounting standards. This resulted in a reported hedge-related loss of $18 million being expensed due to the movement in the mark to market value of the hedges that do not qualify for hedge accounting, partly offset by a gain of $1.5 million for the remaining swap contracts that do qualify for hedge accounting.
• During the period the Chinese Government announced that it would reduce the income tax rate from 33% to 25% effective from 1 January 2008, which resulted in a non-cash deferred tax benefit of $26.5 million in the Income Statement.
• Net debt position at 30 June 2007 of $126.8 million compared to $113.1 million at
31 December 2006, which was in the form of a 12 month Bridge Facility which was refinanced with a four year US$200 million facility on 20 August 2007.

[GREENS]

aven’t posted on my bread and butter stock for a while, probably because its SP hasn’t been doing too much, well in fact going backwards and secondly no one seems to give a S*#t about it, I end up talking to myself.

Cash flows are very strong, the only reason for the subdued NPAT (-8.8m and EPS of
-3c) was because of the companies aggressive exploration and devt program which cost a an arm and a leg to fund The good news though is that those expensive North Sea Developments (Enoch and Blane) will come to an end soon and begin contributing considerably to revenues, I think the North Sea will represent 1/3 of the companies production. Heres a bit of an overview of were the company is at:

Production:

•Cliff Head (37.5%) back producing at a constant rate of 10,000BOPD
•Zhao Dong (24.5%) producing around 20,000BOPD (hopefully will increase towards 25,000BOPD with devt drilling)
•Enoch (12%) producing at 12,000BOPD and 20MSCF
•Mauritania (3.5%) producing around 12,000BOPD and falling

Development/Appraisal:

•Blane Oil field (12,5%) to start producing in the next month at around 17,000BOPD
•Beibu Gulf (40%), so much potential here have already discovered something around recoverable oil 30MMBO, devt expected towards the end of the year and should start producing sometime in 2009 at 10,000-15,000BOPD, not taking into a/c 4 additional oil accumulations in the south end of the block, although quite heavy and viscous could be commercial if the north end of the block gets the green light.
•C4 oil field (11.75%) extension of the Zhao Dong oil field, currently under construction and should begin producing late 2008 @ 10,000BOPD
•Appraisal of the latest discoveries offshore WA. Could be another cliff head, I.e. in ARQ’s words from their presentation, as long as it can be followed up with a successful side track well.

Exploration:

•Angola, not much more needs to be said, 1st well has discovered oil, with another 4 planned…(note: haven’t really assessed the latest discovery as yet but saw that it could contain 170MMBOIP with recoveries of 10-20%.
•Beibu Gulf, again not much needs to be said the attractiveness of this tenant speaks for itself.
•Also further exploration will be conducted at Madagascar, offshore Perth basin, equatorial guinea and Mauritania.

Ken I remember reading in AFR smart investor an article saying Roc could potentially be the next Woodside, long way off at the moment, but seems to be heading in the right direction with very good management.

Note: this is not advice on whether to purchase a stock just a general overview/update of where the company is currently at this is a speculative stock with considerable foreign risk.

[bigdog]

Todays Age
http://www.theage.com.au/news/business/roc-shares-surge-on-angolan-oil-discovery/2007/08/30/1188067276921.html

Roc shares surge on Angolan oil discovery
August 31, 2007

ROC Oil shares rose the most in 15 months after the company said it might be able to produce from the Massambala discovery in Angola, raising optimism about more finds.

Roc Oil jumped 45¢, or 16 per cent, to $3.23, the highest for almost three weeks.

Roc's Cabinda South venture, which includes Force Petroleum and the national oil company Sonangol SA, started drilling in June as part of a $54 million exploration program.

Roc said about 20 per cent of the estimated 170 million barrels in the Massambala field might be produced.

"This has captured everyone's imagination that maybe Angola will be an area of interest for these guys," said Luke Smith, an oil and gas analyst at ABN Amro Australia.

Massambala-1, the first well drilled in the Cabinda region in 35 years, is targeting a potential 33 million-barrel discovery.

It holds heavy, viscous oil, rather than the light oil typical of Angolan and West African crudes that Roc was targeting.

"Massambala becomes the most recent addition to Roc's conveyor belt of projects which merit more thorough appraisal," Roc chief executive John Doran said in a statement to the stock exchange.

Oil and gas accounts for 49 per cent of the gross domestic product of Angola.

The country became the 12th member of the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries in January but as yet has no production quota.

Roc's exploration program in Angola would continue to primarily target the lighter grades of crude that are more typical of the region, Mr Doran said. Roc owns 60 per cent of the venture, while Force and Sonangol each own 20 per cent.

Roc reported a narrower first-half loss of $8.8 million, compared with $22.2 million a year earlier.

[bigdog]

ASX ANN today
ROC 9:42 AM Activity Update-Production, North Sea-First Oil from Blane
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00758751

ROC’s wholly owned subsidiary, Roc Oil (GB) Limited, is pleased to advise that on 12 September 2007, the Blane Oil Field started production. Gross production rates are expected to quickly rise to approximately 17,000 BOEPD (ROC: 2,125 BOEPD), almost entirely oil. Blane is tied back to the BP-operated Ula Oil Field, 34 kilometres to the northeast in Norway, from where the oil will be transported via a sub-sea pipeline to the Teeside Oil Terminal in the UK.

The Blane Oil Field, operated by Talisman Energy (UK) Limited, is located in UK Block 30/3a and Norwegian Block 1/2, about 260 kilometres east of Aberdeen. Because the field straddles the UK and Norwegian international boundary it has been unitised: 82% (UK) and 18% (Norway). As previously reported the field’s gross proved and probable (2P) reserves are estimated to be 30.4 MMBOE (ROC:3.8 MMBOE), 97% oil.

Commenting on the Blane start-up, ROC’s Chief Executive Officer, John Doran stated that:
“Blane further diversifies ROC’s production base which now comprises oil production, from six fields in four countries. Coming along behind Blane during the next year or two are field developments offshore China and appraisal projects relating to recent discoveries offshore Western Australia and onshore Angola."

Unitised Interests in the Blane Oil Field are:
Roc Oil (GB) Limited........................................... .........................................12.5%
Talisman Energy (UK) Limited........................................... .............................25.0%
Talisman Energy Norge AS................................................ ............................18.0%
MOC Exploration (U.K.) Limited (a subsidiary of Nippon Oil Corporation).....14.0%
ENI UK Limited........................................... .................................................. ..13.9%
ENI ULX Limited........................................... .................................................. ..4.1%
Bow Valley Petroleum (UK) Limited........................................... ....................12.5%

[GREENS]

Roc down more than 4.5% over the last 2 days on slightly greater than average volume although oil is near record highs and has averaged well over the $US70 for the current quarter thus far. ROC is currently Producing around 10,000BOPD, with Blane in the North Sea coming on stream yesterday adding >2,000BOPD net to ROC. Aggressive Exploration program aimed for 2H 07. Should be generating somewhere between $70m-$80m in Revenue for the 3Q. Yet the SP continues to hover around the $3 mark, puzzling to say the least :confused:.

[bigdog]

ASX ann today with small drop in SP

ROC $3.11 -$0.03 -0.96&#37; with high of $3.18 and low of $3.08 1,776,216 shares $5,542,832 @ 18-Sep 15:46:41

18/09/2007 Activity Update - Production
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00760229

ROC’s net production currently approximates to 12,900 BOEPD from six fields in four countries, including the most recent addition to its production portfolio, the Blane Oil Field in the North Sea. The production spread is: 37% China; 33% Australia; 27% UK and 3% Africa. Between now and the end of 2007, ROC expects that the Company’s total production will remain within a 10,000 – 12,000 BOEPD range, as forecast in October 2006 (Attachment 1), subject to normal industry risk factors.

A number of corporate milestones have been achieved as a result of the Company’s recent production performance including:

Within a week of first production at the Blane Oil Field in the North Sea, this two-well field demonstrated the capacity to produce more than the pre-start up estimate of 17,000 BOEPD gross (net ROC: 2,125 BOEPD) which is the level at which production is being currently maintained.



Production at the Enoch Oil and Gas Field in the North Sea, has largely met expectations since it commenced more than three months ago with most recent production rates of approximately 12,000 BOEPD (net ROC:1,450 BOEPD).



In early September 2007, 16 months after production commenced, the ROC-operated Cliff Head Oil Field in Western Australia, produced its 4 millionth barrel of oil representing 22,450 man days without a Lost Time Injury. Current production for Cliff Head is approximately 11,500 BOPD (net ROC: 4,275 BOPD).



So far during 2007 production from the C and D fields in the Zhao Dong Block, offshore China, has underperformed expectations. There are a number of reasons for this production performance, including inclement weather, down hole equipment malfunction and a degree of reservoir complexity, all of which are being addressed. Current production at Zhao Dong approximates to 20,000 BOPD (net ROC: 4,900 BOPD). Since ROC acquired the asset in mid-2006 the fields have produced approximately 9.4 MMBO and operations are on track to achieve two years without a Lost Time Injury on 1 October 2007. Fabrication of the C4 production facilities has commenced and production is still expected to start in Q4 2008.


Commenting on ROC’s production portfolio the Company’s CEO, Dr John Doran, stated that:
“The combination of a six field production base and a potential high impact eight well exploration drilling programme offshore China and onshore Angola - including two current wells, Cevada-1 and Soja-1, in Angola - provides ROC shareholders with a balanced exposure to both the current high oil price and exploration upside.”

[GREENS]

Roc down more than 4.5% over the last 2 days on slightly greater than average volume although oil is near record highs and has averaged well over the $US70 for the current quarter thus far. ROC is currently Producing around 10,000BOPD, with Blane in the North Sea coming on stream yesterday adding >2,000BOPD net to ROC. Aggressive Exploration program aimed for 2H 07. Should be generating somewhere between $70m-$80m in Revenue for the 3Q. Yet the SP continues to hover around the $3 mark, puzzling to say the least :confused:.

Well the sell down from CBA, could explain why ROC has gone down on nothing but good news the past few weeks, they are no longer a substantial shareholder. But what has caught my eye is that AWE has experienced a similar fate. AMP is no longer a substantial shareholder for AWE, is this telling us something we don’t already know? Very strange for such big investment funds to reduce their holdings of 2 very similar companies at the same time. Maybe they believe oil is topping and is poised for a fall or are just selling out because there are better opportunities elsewhere at the moment? Who knows, but very curious none the less?

[Smurf1976]

Given the woeful track record of the major institutions at forecasting the oil price thus far, if they're selling then that in itself is a reason for me to be holding or buying.

Economists and big institutions waffling on about low oil prices reminds me of a certain Middle East country's former Information Minister. I'm not sure which part of the rising demand / limited production / depreciating currency bit they don't get.

But then one of the big banks did tell me that interest rates would never rise more than 0.75% which says a lot about their style of thinking.:2twocents

[bigdog]

Perhaps the market liked todays ASX ANN!!

Currently +$0.16 +4.66%

ROC $3.59 +$0.16 +4.66% 546,712 shares $1,930,153 @ 18-Oct 10:51:29

EXPLORATION UPDATE: DRILLING ACTIVITY, ONSHORE ANGOLA
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00771012
Roc Oil (Cabinda) Company, a wholly-owned subsidiary of ROC and Operator of the Cabinda South Block, onshore Angola, advises that:

• An announcement regarding the status and results of the Cevada-1 exploration well in the Cabinda South Block, will be made as soon as approvals required by Angolan law have been obtained from the Minister of Petroleum and also after receipt of approval from Angola’s national oil company, Sonangol.

This announcement should not be construed to have any positive or negative implications; with regard to the Cevada-1 exploration well.

[GREENS]

This is my last post on this stock; I’ve decided to just let the stock do the talking from now on, because I’m sick of not seeing any constructive discussion. On the note of ROC looks like it has finally broken out on the upside of the large triangle it had been building for the past 4 months on above average volume, and hopefully is heading north again after an extended period of consolidation. The fundamentals are there to take this company places, just needs some luck, like any other explorer. However the one thing that gives me confidence and separates this company from other want-a-be explorers/producers is that management is of the highest quality. In regards to 3Q Revenues, looks like it will lie at the top end of my previous estimate (in previous post), i.e. closer to the $80m mark, as oil prices finished the quarter fairly strong while being slightly subdued in AUD terms as the dollar continued to appreciate from around the middle of the quarter onwards. The focus now for the rest of 2H 07 will be on Angola and China exploration, both proven hydrocarbon provinces, whilst highly attractive, this never assures success. One thing that is certain though, is whatever type of crude the company happens to discover in the future, you can put your faith in the technical team to deliver after dealing with and successfully operating the difficult Cliff Head and Zhao Dong reservoirs.

[aussie86]

Hey, Ive been watching the forums for a while, but this is my first post :)

I was wondering if anyone else is watching ROC, ive held shares in it off and on for the past few years. Yesterday saw the sp go up to $3.90, the quarterly report was released today and at the moment it is trading around $3.30. This is a pretty huge drop. I was wondering what peoples opinions were regarding todays drop. Do you think the market has over reacted to this announcement?


Cheers

[bigdog]

SP ROC $3.34 -$0.56 -14.36% $3.34 $3.35 $3.80 high of $3.85 and low of $3.27 6,455,924 shares $22,131,870 31-Oct 15:34:35

Looks like market did not like ANN!!!!

ASX ANN today

31/10/2007 Quarterly Report 30 September 2007
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00777285

REPORT TO SHAREHOLDERS
Activities for the Quarter Ended 30 September 2007

CEO COMMENTS
• The Quarter provided record oil production at a time of record global oil prices; a happy coincidence.

• In terms of US dollars, which is the Company’s main currency of receipts and expenditures, quarterly sales revenues also set a new record.

• The Quarter provided the Company with its sixth currently producing field, Blane, in the North Sea; a heavy oil discovery with its first well onshore Angola at Massambala -1, which is subject to further appraisal and large new exploration areas offshore Perth, Western Australia and in the Mozambique Channel offshore Madagascar.

• Subsequent to Quarter end, Cevada-1 and Soja-1 wells, ROC’s second and third exploration wells onshore Angola, both encountered hydrocarbon shows while drilling but in both cases they are judged to be non-commercial. See section 8.1 Post – Quarter Events.

• As ROC heads towards the end of 2007 and into 2008, its aggressive drilling programme will continue onshore Angola while a new multi-well programme will start up in the Beibu Gulf, offshore China and subject to rig availability, possibly also in the northern offshore Perth Basin.

KEY ACTIVITIES
1. CONSOLIDATED REVENUE & PRODUCTION
1.1 Oil Production hit a record level of 862,454 BBLS with total working interest oil and gas production of 881,209 BOE (9,578 BOEPD); up 13% compared to 782,322 BOE (8,597 BOEPD) in the previous quarter.

1.2 Total sales revenue of $60.8 million was essentially flat compared to $60.4 million in the previous quarter, despite the quarter-on-quarter increase in production. This reflected stronger US dollar oil prices, offset by an increase in underlift by 63,193 BBLS to 115,959 BBLS and a stronger Australian dollar. In fact, in terms of US dollars, which is largely the company’s currency of expenditure, the 3Q 2007 quarterly sales revenue was also a record.

1.3 Sales volumes of 758,560 BBLS, down 1.1% compared to the previous quarter of 769,789, due to timing of cargo liftings.

1.4 The average realised oil price across all of ROC's production assets was $81.39/BBL (US$69.46/BBL), up 3% from 2Q 2007.

[patrick]

Hey, Ive been watching the forums for a while, but this is my first post :)

I was wondering if anyone else is watching ROC, ive held shares in it off and on for the past few years. Yesterday saw the sp go up to $3.90, the quarterly report was released today and at the moment it is trading around $3.30. This is a pretty huge drop. I was wondering what peoples opinions were regarding todays drop. Do you think the market has over reacted to this announcement?


Cheers

I'm prety new to posting as well so i hope this helps u out.
i've held ROC for a few years now as well (if fact it was one of the first shares i bought) and their SP seems to jump around like this from time to time.

If you look to about 2 weeks ago ROC announced that they had information on the exploration wells in Angola but was waiting for the Angolian government to give the ok before they released the results to the public.

It was also around this time that the SP started on a pretty good run up to $3.90 yesterday. It would seem that people were buying into ROC on the speculation that they had found a lot of oil in Angola and the news today proved this wrong, with Ceveda and Soja both proving to be uncommercial. Due to this the SP has pretty much returned to previous levels of about $3.30, which is also wot i bought them at almost 3years ago.

Although i have been frustrated with ROC oil in the past i am actually going to increase my holdings in them due to the fact that they already produce a fair bit of oil, have some proven commercial fields and they have some exciting new exploration areas and next time they spike like yesterday i will sell out with a decent profit.

hope this helps

Pat

[aussie86]

If you look to about 2 weeks ago ROC announced that they had information on the exploration wells in Angola but was waiting for the Angolian government to give the ok before they released the results to the public.
/snip/
Pat

Cheers mate,

I missed that announcement 2 weeks ago (too much uni study :) ), that explains the negative response today. I think they are fundamentally a very promising company , what with the existing production and the possibility of future finds and I've always being impressed with the current management team.

I have most recently bought in under the $3 mark, and im happy to hold them for the long term, to see where they go.

[GREENS]

This is my last post on this stock; I’ve decided to just let the stock do the talking from now on, because I’m sick of not seeing any constructive discussion. On the note of ROC looks like it has finally broken out on the upside of the large triangle it had been building for the past 4 months on above average volume, and hopefully is heading north again after an extended period of consolidation. The fundamentals are there to take this company places, just needs some luck, like any other explorer. However the one thing that gives me confidence and separates this company from other want-a-be explorers/producers is that management is of the highest quality. In regards to 3Q Revenues, looks like it will lie at the top end of my previous estimate (in previous post), i.e. closer to the $80m mark, as oil prices finished the quarter fairly strong while being slightly subdued in AUD terms as the dollar continued to appreciate from around the middle of the quarter onwards. The focus now for the rest of 2H 07 will be on Angola and China exploration, both proven hydrocarbon provinces, whilst highly attractive, this never assures success. One thing that is certain though, is whatever type of crude the company happens to discover in the future, you can put your faith in the technical team to deliver after dealing with and successfully operating the difficult Cliff Head and Zhao Dong reservoirs.

I said I wouldn’t post on this again unless there was some constructive discussion, but considering my forecast was way off the mark I thought I should explain the reasoning why. I assumed around the higher end of the $70m-80m mark.

•The firm produced considerably more oil than it sold for the quarter leaving the company in an under-lift position of around $6.5m, which should be taken into a/c. largely due to timing of cargo lifting’s.
•Shutdown for routine maintenance at Cliff Head for the quarter was not taken into a/c which equated to approx lost production of around 34,000BOO which equates to around $3m in lost Rev.

These first few factors attribute to around $10m of loss revenue for the quarter with the $6.5m likely to be realised in future quarters. While the above are logical and hence the reason why sales figures should not just be taken at face value, the next below was the result of poor judgement.

•ROC’s main field ZD production was significantly below forecast (even after allowing for conservative production), but considering nearly ever analysts response to the fields performance was the same, one of shock and disbelief! I don’t feel so bad. Also the crude sold at a significant discount to Brent; although I took this into a/c it was still off the mark. This in turn accounted for forgone revenue of $5-6m.

[Trader Paul]

:)

Hi folks,

ROC ..... will be alert for an announcement, as a positive spotlight
should be focused on this one, early in the week.

Price action is quite oversold and our momentum indicator
has picked up recently, too.

have a great week ahead

paul

:)

=====

[bigdog]

ASX ANN today

Looks like market liked ANN!!!!
ROC $3.00 +$0.07 +2.39% high of $3.05 513,703 shares $1,540,879 @ 30-Nov 10:43:58

30/11/2007 Production Update-Zhao Dong, Bohai Bay, Offshore China
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00789817

PRODUCTION UPDATE: ZHAO DONG BLOCK, BOHAI BAY, OFFSHORE CHINA

Key Points


A recent production increase at the C & D Oil Fields in the Zhao Dong Block, Bohai Bay, offshore China, has seen gross oil production rise to 25,000 barrels of oil per day (”BOPD”) from mid-year production levels which were in the high teens.

This lift in production coincides with a record realised oil price of approximately US$81/BBL and a shipment of 306,000 barrels net ROC in late November.

ROC, on behalf of its wholly-owned subsidiary Roc Oil (Bohai) Company, which has a 24.5% operated interest in the Zhao Dong Block in the Bohai Bay, offshore China, is pleased to provide the following production and drilling progress report regarding the C and D Oil Fields.


The 2007 Zhao Dong drilling programme began in April and is scheduled to finish in early December when the last well, a water injector, will be drilled. The total programme comprises 13 wells consisting of 11 oil producers and two water injectors.

• The four most recent producers, all completed since mid-September, have boosted gross production to the current level of 25,000 BOPD. This rate compares with quarterly production averages of 21,000 BOPD, 18,700 BOPD and 17,320 BOPD for the first, second and third quarters of 2007, respectively. The current expectation is that Zhao Dong production will exit 2007 at a rate in excess of the 22,000 BOPD 2006 exit rate.

• This recent lift in production coincides with a record realised oil price of approximately US$81/BBL and a 306,000 BBL ROC shipment on 24 November, 2007. The November price represents a 62% improvement on the year low realised price of approximately US$50/BBL in February 2007.

• Total 2007 gross production for Zhao Dong is expected to be in the order of 7.2 MMBO, representing an average of 19,700 BOPD (ROC net: 4,800 BOPD). This is 22% less than the gross production target set by ROC at the beginning of the year which was identified at the time as being ambitious. The 2007 production shortfall, which has been reported previously, mainly relates to the underperformance of four wells which did not meet expectations due to reservoir and geological complexities, some of which are now better understood, as well as other producing wells which experienced minor mechanical difficulties which have largely been resolved. The overall revenue impact of this underperformance has been offset to some extent by the oil price strengthening referred to above.

• Typically, the seven successful producers drilled during 2007, all of which either met or, in the case of the most recent wells, largely exceeded, original expectations and pay out quickly, sometimes within three weeks.

[DowJones]

Im thinking about buying ROC. Most of the concensus and broker views are positive on ROC, and it has dropped considerable since its $3.90 close late November when it announced disappointing exploration news.

Does anyone have a more current view on ROC?

[tronic72]

I think they are a good thing, both short term (assuming the Market holds) and long term. Just depends on your strategy.

My 2c

[tronic72]

I missed the boat. I had them at 2.75 on my watch list but they just shot up near 3. I assume the quick rise was due to the unrest in Turkey.

Oh well, maybe next time. :(

[DowJones]

I had them on my watchlist and watched the stock going to the 2.70s. I like them cause they are both in exploration and production.

Now the price has moved... still considering. I think I might get some on a RED day. Or day after the Dow Jones plunges triple figures (again!)

[ba229]

Have you guys noticed the amounts of directors selling shares in the last months?

I counted 7 announcements about sells. Not normally seen as a positive move by the leaders of a company.

[bigdog]

ASX ANN today

ROC $2.57 -$0.02 -0.77% high of $2.66 low of $2.46 2,291,597 shares $5,932,415 @ 25-Jan 15:53:56

25-01-2008 12:31 PM ROC 2007 Production, Sales Revenue and Reserves Update
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00805990

2007 PRODUCTION, SALES REVENUE AND RESERVES UPDATE

ROC is pleased to provide a preliminary production, sales revenue and reserves update ahead of its 4Q 2007 report which will be released on 31 January 2008 and its 2007 Financial Results which will be released on 28 February 2008.

1. Production ROC’s 2007 production of ca 3.5 MMBOE (9,668 BOEPD) was a record; up 77% on the previous year. Ninety-nine percent of the production was oil.

2. Sales/Revenue Despite a year-end underlift position of approximately 0.24 MMBO net ROC, the Company's 2007 sales revenue of A$248 million was also a record; up 64% on the previous year, due to increased production and strong oil prices.

3. Reserves ROC has completed its internal 2007 year-end reserve review and RISC Pty Ltd is finalising an independent reserve audit report on ROC's production assets, excluding the Chinguetti Oil Field, offshore Mauritania. On this basis, ROC advises that:

• ROC's remaining company-wide proved and probable (2P) reserves at 31 December 2007 are 21.4 MMBOE, all of which are being produced or being developed.

• There has been a reduction of 2.1 MMBOE relating to ROC's 2P net reserves in the C and D oil fields, in the Zhao Dong Block, offshore China, before any adjustment for 2007 production. Compared to ROC's 2P reserves at 31 December 2006, this change in Zhao Dong reserves represents a reduction of approximately 7.5% of ROC's company-wide 2P reserves.

• There are no other material revisions to ROC's

The change in Zhao Dong 2P reserves will have an impact on ROC's 2007 financial results through an increase in the non-cash amortisation expense. ROC's preliminary assessment, subject to audit, indicates that the reserves change, together with estimated future costs to develop the 2P reserves at Zhao Dong, will result in an increase in the amortisation expense for Zhao Dong of approximately A$12/bbl, totalling approximately A$21 million for the year ending 31 December 2007.

The Company’s 2P reserves for end-2007 referred to above, do not include any of the oil and gas resources identified by the five discoveries ROC has made since May 2006, four of which are being actively reviewed and/or appraised and one of which has been relinquished. In this context, the following points are worth noting:

• Approximately 3.7 MMBOE of net ROC resources in the Wei 6-12S Oil Field complex in the Beibu Gulf, offshore China, will be reclassified as net ROC 2P reserves if, as expected, a declaration of commerciality is made later this year. In that event, the reclassification will effectively replace all of the 2P reserves ROC produced during 2007.

• The commercial potential of the Frankland Gas Field and the Dunsborough Oil and Gas Field in the offshore Perth Basin will be better known after completion of the two well drilling programme which is scheduled to start in early February 2008. Currently, these two fields are tentatively estimated to contain approximately 5 to 9 MMBOE recoverable reserves net to ROC.

• The Zhao Dong reserve revision does not alter the fact that a potential for 10 MMBOE net ROC possible reserves is recognised within the Block. Much of this unrisked and unbooked reserve upside will be evaluated as part of the ROC-operated >US$ 500 million development activities which are currently underway.

[reece55]

Anyone else find it very poor that almost every director of Roc has been selling their shares recently.....

And then today, low and behold we are informed that the exploration block did not encounter any hydrocarbons and they had plugged and abandoned the well.....

Inside information anyone??????

This ones a definite short at the moment, previous support confirmed as resistance and so far their attempts to commercialise the Oil Field in the Beibu Gulf has not proved to be very sucessful.....

Cheers

[bigdog]

Todays West Australian

http://www.wabusinessnews.com.au/en-story.php?/1/60358/Roc-Oil-breaks-three-records-in-Q4

Roc Oil Company Ltd says it achieved record oil production, oil prices and revenue for the December quarter.

The Sydney-headquartered oil and gas company, which operates in China, Africa, United Kingdom and Australia, reported sales revenue of $88 million.

It produced 1.08 million barrels of oil (mmbo) and its realised oil prices hit $A100 ($US88.90) a barrel.

Roc's offshore Cliff Head oil field near Dongara in Western Australia paid out its gross capital investment of $327 million after producing about five mmbo during the first 18 months of production.

This represents about one-third of the field's original oil reserves in the "2P recoverable" category under Australia's oil reporting code, JORC.

Roc's two oil projects in the Beibu Gulf, offshore from China, are expected to move towards a final investment decision during the first half of this calendar year.

Shares in Roc were four cents higher at $2.08 at 1352 AEDT.

[GREENS]

It is hard to decide whether the latest news out of Angola today is in fact positive or negative. Is definitely just another addition to the frustration of ROC’s drilling over the past 6 months (especially in Angola), good oil shows or residual in nearly all wells drilled. Yet all have come back non-commercial. These includes both Soja-1, Cevada-1 and now Milho-1 in Angola, Wei 6-12-E-1A in the Beibu Gulf and Lilac-1 in the Perth Basin.

The recent announcement is as follows:

“As previously announced, the Milho-1 exploration well commenced drilling on 21 November 2007. Although it is the fourth well in the programme, Milho-1 is the first well in the current drilling programme to specifically target a pre-salt structure which is the sequence which contains most of the oil reserves in the adjacent area offshore Cabinda. All three of the wells to be drilled subsequent to Milho-1 will also target pre-salt structures.

Milho-1 has reached Total Depth after encountering what appears to be a classic pre-salt sequence characterised by a thick world class source rock, with significant oil and gas shows, from which oil has been recovered via wire line sampling. This sequence overlies a thick sand interval with good reservoir quality. While the well is judged to be non-commercial, Milho-1, which is approximately 12 kilometres inland, is only the second well in this part of the Block to penetrate a full pre-salt sequence to basement and, as such, it is a very important data point. It provides the first modern sub-surface evidence that the pre-salt petroleum system, which is so prolific in the adjacent offshore area, underlies a considerable portion of the onshore Cabinda South Block. The lack of shows in the pre-salt reservoir may relate to the well being down dip from the top of the structure.”

If one takes a look at the results of strong oil and gas shows + 1 significant heavy oil discovery (Massambala-1) already recorded in ROC’s current drilling program after little or no onshore exploration and combines this with the amount and size of discoveries surrounding the block, one would only guess that it is a matter of time before they hit a gusher. But as of date the likelihood is becoming less and less likely. If ROC doesn’t hit a commercial discovery in the next few wells, the JV partners including ROC could be more reluctant to continue the funding of this highly expensive exploration program. The only advantage is that ROC has only drilled 1 post-salt structure and nearly all of the onshore (and offshore) discoveries in Angola have been found in these post salt source rocks. Would gladly welcome any insights from those that have geology knowledge to share your views on the recent results and whether you believe this is encouraging for the wells drilled within close proximity to Milho-1.

[GREENS]

If one takes a look at the results of strong oil and gas shows + 1 significant heavy oil discovery (Massambala-1) already recorded in ROC’s current drilling program after little or no onshore exploration and combines this with the amount and size of discoveries surrounding the block, one would only guess that it is a matter of time before they hit a gusher. But as of date the likelihood is becoming less and less likely. If ROC doesn’t hit a commercial discovery in the next few wells, the JV partners including ROC could be more reluctant to continue the funding of this highly expensive exploration program. The only advantage is that ROC has only drilled 1 post-salt structure and nearly all of the onshore (and offshore) discoveries in Angola have been found in these post salt source rocks. Would gladly welcome any insights from those that have geology knowledge to share your views on the recent results and whether you believe this is encouraging for the wells drilled within close proximity to Milho-1.

Careless mistake, the words in bold are meant to be pre-salt, just think the frustrations of the post-salt section where the first 3 wells were drilled has sent me crazy...

[Kelpie]

Would anybody hazard a guess what the SP may do from a T/A perspective?
Many thanks................

[JTLP]

Kelpie...not the greatest on T.A but i'll give it a shot for you.

From my understanding, ROC seems to have found support around the 1.80 - 1.85 mark, having bounced off these prices 3 times in the last 3 months.

It looks to have bottomed out as a result of this, and if you look at the trend line, that also appears to be quite level/steady.

There is relatively low volume though, which I believe indicates that this could go either way (volatile).

RSI seems to be indicate normal conditions (though slightly towards overbought at 60).

Yeah, if thats crap my apologies...but that's from JTLP's basic T/A 101

DYOR

[GREENS]

An announcement just out on the drilling of the Coco-1 exploration well in Angola. Is there anyone that could better interpret this information a little more clearly, particularly in relation to the down hole constraints which impacted testing?

“The Coco-1 exploration well has reached a Total Depth of 2,629 mBRT and produced 26o API oil and associated gas to surface during open hole drill stem testing of two separate intervals in the sub-salt sequence. Both tests were impacted by down hole constraints; one relating to sand influx during testing and the other to mud losses to fractures while drilling. The well will be suspended as an oil discovery with the intention that it be re-entered and tested more comprehensively as soon as practical, within the next six months. Until the well has undergone further testing it is not possible to comment on its commercial potential”.

[GREENS]

Any ROC or Anzon shareholders got any thoughts on the proposed merger/takeover?

Haven’t quite come to a conclusion quite yet as I knew very little about Anzon prior to a few days ago. If there are any Anzon shareholders I would be very interested to hear your thoughts in particular. Not quite sure If I’m too impressed with a doubling of the shares on issue and in turn a massive dilution of the upside exploration potential in ROCs portfolio and it doesn’t look like Anzon brings much to the table in terms of exploration. Seems more orientated for short term gains in production and 2P reserves.

I guess there is a strong argument that by merging ROC gains the production and revenue that can be used for future development activities in 2009/10 & 11. Maybe they believe that they can raise more funding through a merger rather than issuing 300m new shares through a rights issue sometime in the future?

By the way Hess just made what is believed to be a fairy significant natural gas discovery in the Carnarvon Basin, a block which is adjacent to the BHP/TAP/ROC JV. 3D seismic is planned to be acquired towards the end of this year with drilling of a well maybe in the 2H of 09. According to TAP, 2D seismic has mapped out around 20 leads/prospects that the 3D data will further define.

[GREENS]

What awful news ROC issued to the stock exchange this arvo. Dr John Doran has stepped down as CEO due to a sudden and serious illness. All I can say regardless of whether he returns to the hot seat or not, is that he has left a legacy for how a CEO should run a company, i.e. always open and transparent with shareholders and having their interests at the forefront for any decision. May sound like a simple task that all CEOs should strive to achieve, yet nearly all fail miserably. I must say arguably one of the best CEOs if not the best going around. I’m sure all of the ROC team and shareholders will be hoping he gets well soon.

For those who aren’t familiar with ROC, John could be compared to someone like Owen Hegarty (from Oxiana) stepping down. A massive loss! (Still a very big understatement).

[urgalzmine]

What awful news ROC issued to the stock exchange this arvo. Dr John Doran has stepped down as CEO due to a sudden and serious illness. All I can say regardless of whether he returns to the hot seat or not, is that he has left a legacy for how a CEO should run a company, i.e. always open and transparent with shareholders and having their interests at the forefront for any decision. May sound like a simple task that all CEOs should strive to achieve, yet nearly all fail miserably. I must say arguably one of the best CEOs if not the best going around. I’m sure all of the ROC team and shareholders will be hoping he gets well soon.

For those who aren’t familiar with ROC, John could be compared to someone like Owen Hegarty (from Oxiana) stepping down. A massive loss! (Still a very big understatement).

no offense to Dr Doran, but have you seen the share price for the last few years?? Maybe you could reiterate what has gone right for this company?

[GREENS]

Urgalzmine, my apologies for the late reply, have been quite busy. I think your point is very valid and you are correct to say that ROCs share price has taken a battering over the past few years. While the price of the company has been in freefall the underlying intrinsic value has only gone one way and that is up. To prove such a point I will try and point out how I come to my conclusion, do not take any of the comments personally as they are not aimed at you. Also to everyone that reads this thread please note that this is my view only and in no way is financial advice.

Dr Doran has little influence in affecting the share price and as a geologist and not businessman is often very cautious in his approach to forecasts of production and in calculating recoverable 2P reserve figures. In my view ROCs reported 2P figures are well below the actual amount of oil the company will likely recover, which many analysts have also highlighted. I think based on ROCs assets you could easily argue a share price somewhere north of $4 and I have no doubt it well reach this target in due time. In my experience price always catches up to value, however sometime this process takes a lot longer than one would like.

In 2005 the company had virtually no revenue and no production. Since the start of 2006 Production and revenue have been in a strong upward trend over the last two years, having grown significantly from 0.06MMBOE and $AU5.5m in 1Q06 to >1MMBOE and $AU108.5m in 1Q08. Now the company has grown to be well balanced P + E Company with consistent production of around 10,00BOPD which is generating significant cash flows.

In terms of looking at the firm’s income statement and seeing a negative NPAT and in turn EPS, you would have to be ignorant to believe the truth behind these figures, because they definitely do not show a true of the underlying cash position of the company, which is extremely strong. Due to ROCs hedging procedures (note: they only have a small amount of total production hedged) they have had to write of around $US70m, which was a non cash loss. Also ROCs conservative approach to expensing exploration even though some projects are potentially commercial also hides the true position of the company to some extent. Exploration expenses accounted for $US89m in the full year 2007.

Let me use a very simple and rough method to value ROCs oil in the ground assuming a conservative value of $US22.50 per barrel, and ignoring the time value of money. I will also take into account the differences in crude prices received from different fields. My other assumption will be an ER of $0.95 and 300m shares on issue. Yet with an oil prive any where above $100/barrel using a value of $US22.50 for in ground resources is considerably low.

Cliff Head:

10MMBO*0.375 = 3.75MMBO (net ROC)
3.75MMBO*$AU23.68= $88.82m
Value per share = 88.82/300 = $0.296

Note: the JV believes due to good reservoir performance, recovery levels are likely to be considerably higher than original estimates, which have not been factored in to this figure.

Zhao Dong:

Oil trades @ a 15% discount to Brent, which therefore values each in ground barrel at $AU20.13

C&D oil fields: 9MMBO (Net ROC) + C4 9MMBO (conservative estimate)
18MMBO*$AU20.13 = $362.37
Value per share = 362.37/300 = $1.21

Enoch + Blane:

Oil trades at a slight premium to Brent (assume 2%) which therefore values each in ground barrel at $AU24.16

Combined 2P reserves is equal to 4.3MMBO
4.3MMBO*$AU24.16 = $103.88
Value per share = 103.88/300 = $0.346

Chinguetti:

1.05MMBO (net ROC) sells at or very close to Brent spot, i.e. $AU23.68
1.05MMBO*$AU23.68 = 24.86
Value per share = 24.86/300 = $0.083

Beibu Gulf:

Wei 6-12 & Wei 6-12-S 2P estimates range from 19-29MMBO with considerable upside. For this sake I will assume smack bang in the middle @ 24MMBO (Net ROC: 4.7MMBO). However there are 4 additional oil accumulations (Wei 12-8 East and West, Wei 12-2 & Wei 12-3) in the south end of the block where there lays a potentially larger reserve of oil with an estimated P50 oil in-place of about 189MMBO. However a large majority of this oil is much heavier and viscous that the north end of the block. Using a recovery of 17.5% this equates to recoverable reserves of approx 33.1MMBO (Net ROC: 6.5MMBO).

If CNOOC chooses to back in to gain a 51% interest ROCs interest in the block will fall to 19.6%. At 19.6% recoverable reserves net to ROC would be 11.2MMBO. The crude in the north part of the block will likely sell at the Brent spot price however the crude in the south of the block will probably sell at a 15% discount to Brent.

(4.7MMBO*$AU23.68) + (6.5MMBO*$AU20.13) = $242.14m
Value per Share = 242.14/300 = $0.807

Massambala:

This has yet to be appraised, so until appraisal is conducted this is only a rough and speculative estimate. Heavy oil discovery onshore Angola with an estimated P50 oil in-place of about 200MMBO. ROC said based on heavy oil technology it would not be unreasonable to assume recovery of around 20% and perhaps considerably more. For this sake we will be even more conservative and assume a recovery of 15% which equates to recoverable reserves of around 30MMBO (Net ROC: 18MMBO). The oil would sell at a substantial discount to Brent, probably in the order of around 30%. Hence the value of a barrel of oil in the ground equates to $AU16.58.
18MMBO*$AU16.58 = $298.42m
Value per share = 298.42/300 = $0.995

Mauritania:

Additional Development upside includes;

Banda Gas and Oil Field: Recent appraisal drilling – a 2km step out to the east confirmed the consistency of the discovery well. I.e. 14m of net gas pay overlying 10m of net oil pay. Potential P-50 in place resources has previously been estimated around 1-4TCF of gas. Hence the latest appraisal well should only confirm that range, (3.69% ROC interest). Also there has been greater confidence in the geological model and greater understanding of the reservoir which should prevent any problems that occurred with Chinguetti from re-occurring in Banda and other development candidates.

Pelican Gas Field: Potential P-50 in place resources has been estimated around 1-2TCF of gas, of which ROC has a 4.95% interest. Both Banda and Pelican have the potential to be future cornerstone projects in an LNG development.

Tiof: Potential P-50 in place resources has been estimated around 500MMBO, of which ROC has a 3.69% interest.


In terms of exploration, If you can find a mid tier exploration and/or production company with a market cap under $1.5b that has a better exploration portfolio than ROC then be my guest in pointing this out to me, as I would be most curious to know. ROC is one of a few small to mid cap companies in the world that is able to gain exposure to major petroleum systems in which a large majority of the majors (both private and government enterprises) are exploring, developing &/or producing. I won’t go in to much detail, as this info is readily accessible but such areas include: onshore Angola, offshore (deepwater) Madagascar, offshore Equatorial Guinea, North West Shelf (Carnarvon Basin), Mauritania and the Beibu Gulf (China). How much value you place on this is highly questionable, so I will not even try and attempt to do so. Nevertheless many analysts have put a figure of around $0.50 on ROCs exploration assets.

This has turned into a novel and I doubt anyone will read it but hope it helps explain why John Doran has not only been a great CEO in terms of being transparent and open with shareholders but most importantly in building significant value in the company over the past few years as well as positioning the company to add potentially company transforming value in the future. So until the drilling success picks up it looks like it’s just a waiting game for the moment. Have traded in and out for 3 years and now quite comfortably hold, absolutely no worries on my part with the trend over the last 2 years, has just created even more value in such a good company. In terms of bringing fields in to development, you only have to look at the success of the company in dealing with tricky and highly complex fields, which has given the company worldwide recognition.


GREENS

[scd1]

Greens, it is John Doran's daughter here. I just wanted to thank you for your kind and very astute words about my dad, they are of great comfort.

[CAB SAV]

SCD1, Sorry to hear about your father passing away. I enjoyed watching him be interviewed on telly, loved the passion, seemed like the sort of guy I would enjoy a beer with.
A good bloke.

[GREENS]

SCD I am greatly saddened and sorry to hear about your fathers passing. Although I never knew him personally he made all shareholders feel as if they did, which is a great testimony to him. He seemed like an amazing and very thoughtful man and has definitely left a legacy behind for all CEOs to aspire to. I greatly enjoyed following all his lively and sometimes orthodox presentations and interviews. He will be greatly missed by all shareholders.

My thoughts go out to you and your family during this difficult time.

[Markcoinoz]

Greens, it is John Doran's daughter here. I just wanted to thank you for your kind and very astute words about my dad, they are of great comfort.

scd1,

I am really sorry to hear of your father passing away.

He was one of the good guys and a remarkable CEO.

Remember speaking with him a number of years ago when i held ROC shares.
He left a good impression.

My condolences to yourself and your family.

markcoinoz

[scd1]

Thank you for your kind words, they really do make a difference. Only the other week he was speaking to me passionately about Roc shareholders. For him it really was always all about the shareholders - as you well know.

Thanks again for your words.

[PortfolioPlus]

Hi Greens, in June you did some interesting calculations on ROC in assessing its intrinsic value and I'd like to get your explanation on this para in your post:

Quote Follows:

"Let me use a very simple and rough method to value ROCs oil in the ground assuming a conservative value of $US22.50 per barrel, and ignoring the time value of money. I will also take into account the differences in crude prices received from different fields. My other assumption will be an ER of $0.95 and 300m shares on issue. Yet with an oil prive any where above $100/barrel using a value of $US22.50 for in ground resources is considerably low."

Question: The notional $US22.50...how did you arrive at this? Is it an industry figure? Is it the estimate of the diff between oil price and costs of recovery?

Question: I figure that the 2P reseves at June 30 would only have been around 19.5mmbo and hence I get a ROC value of approx $1.60 (allowing a ER of 87 and an overall disc to Brent of 5%). Why do believe you can value higher than 2P reserves (your figure was 31.8mmbo)?

Sure...if Beibu gets approval and goes ahead, this will add an additional 5.2mmbo to the valuation.

Your figure must be closer to the mark as Huntleys values ROC at $3.40 ish.

Interestingly a footnote at to the half yearly accounts had analysts valuing ROC at June30 as between $2.00 and $2.50 excluding exploration.

[GREENS]

Hi Portfolio Plus. This will take a while to read, but hope it explains everything.

I came to a figure of $US22.50/barrel because I couldn’t decide whether to use $20 or $25, because I thought $20 was too low and being as conservative as possible when posting online thought maybe $25 could be a tad high, so decided to opt for a average to resolve this problem. But if you believe this value should be higher or lower then change the figures to suit your thoughts and opinions. Yes the value is basically as you suggest the final cash flow value per barrel of oil to shareholders. Also I must add that a lot of broking firms are using much higher value for booked 2P reserves of around $US30 up to $US40/barrel. However using a DCF/NPV model is much more accurate yet highly complex; this comes out as a fairly rough figure but nonetheless nearly as accurate. I have double cross checked using both methods and the differences in value per share were relatively minimal between methods.

In regards to 2P figures in the Beibu Gulf, ROC has estimated the lowest recoverable 2P figures of the JV partners. Also in a few different interviews former CEO John Doran stated that the oil in place and recovery levels from the north fields (Wei-6-12, Wei-6-12-S) would most likely be greater than those booked by the company.

In addition you must also take in to account that those 2P figures which ROC plans to book (5.2MMBO) are only for Wei-6-12, Wei-6-12-S and Wei 12-8 West fields (A.K.A Phase 1&2). Note: this does not take into account the other structures such as Wei 12-8 East, Wei 12-2 & Wei 12-3 where a larger yet heavier amount of crude lies. Using 2P oil in place figures by “RISC” and recovery factors which petsec stated (listen to PSA interview) would be around 15%, but if you feel more comfortable using a lower recovery rate then go for it. “RISC” assumed 2P oil in place in Wei 12-8 East, Wei 12-2 & Wei 12-3 (phase 3) to total 149MMBO (PSA say 180 - 190MMBO). 15% recovery equates to approximately 22.4MMBO (Net ROC: 4.4MMBO).

So my valuation in the last post shows that ROC could potentially be well over $4 but what I probably should have sated was that for projects that aren’t currently booked or about to be booked should be valued lower based on a weighted risk of them eventually being booked at some future date. I did state this about Massambala. For example noen or only around 10% of the value of Massambala should be included until further appraisal has confirmed the size and commerciality of the structure. While phase 3 of Beibu Gulf is a much higher probability of being booked at some future date hence a 75% value should be placed on these in ground resources.

Re Assessment:


Beibu Gulf
(5.2MMBO*$AU23.68) + ((4.4*0.75)*$AU20.13) = $189.5m
Value per share = 189.5/300 = $0.63

Massambala
((18MMBO* 0.10)*$AU16.58) = $30m
Value per share = 30/300 = $0.10

Zhao Dong
C&D oil fields: 9.6MMBO (Net ROC) + C4 2MMBO + ROC estimate on un-risked recoverable 2P C4/ERA upside of 7MMBO (Net ROC)
(9.6MMBO*$AU20.13) + (2MMBO*$AU20.13) + ((7MMBO*0.5)*$AU20.13) = $303.968
Value per share = 303.968/300 = $1.01

Chinguetti
1.05MMBO*$AU23.68 = 24.86
Value per share = 24.86/300 = $0.083

Blane + Enoch
Combined 2P reserves is equal to 4.3MMBO
4.3MMBO*$AU24.16 = $103.88
Value per share = 103.88/300 = $0.346

Cliff Head
3.75MMBO*$AU23.68= $88.82m
Value per share = 88.82/300 = $0.296

Total Value = $2.47

Note: this does not include a value on ROC’s exploration portfolio, upside in Beibu Gulf because this becomes very arbitrary. But given the much higher values Petsec and Horizon have used, there is obviously a confidence of considerable upside than Roc’s conservative estimates. In addition upside resulting from appraisal/evaluation assets such as Massambala (partially incorporated), Coco, Frankland, Dunsborough, Banda, Pelican, Tevet or Tiof is not included.

Hence a more accurate value would probably be around the $2.50 mark with the potential for a large amount of reserve upside, which does not include any additional exploration success whatsoever. Note, not many brokers would be incorporating the upside at Zhao Dong as aggressively but given ROCs conservative nature, I feel it is fair enough to assume that is a 50% chance at this stage of this eventually being booked.

With regards to recent exploration, you could say the company hasn’t had the success that it has had in the past, with the drilling of a large number of dusters or non commercial wells and frankly this has been extremely disappointing. But you could not argue against the company’s exploration program and portfolio decisions, because management have got their hands on some land that only minor oil companies could dream of.

On to the half yearly accounts that were published yesterday, the media was running around saying ROC has made a net loss of well over $100m is not really a true representation of the company because the true cash loss was only just over $10m, which given the huge exploration program ROC just undertook, is quite reasonable. ROC is still earning huge margins and aggressively investing it back into their development and exploration activities.

[PortfolioPlus]

Greens...I want to thank you sincerely for your last post in response to my question on your valuation. I'm just getting back to things now...hence the delay.

I did buy more shares @ $1.11 to average down and because ROC does represent impressive value.

Hopefully the Anzon deal will give ROC a mid-cap position that demands insto attention and the shorters begin picking on someone else.

Of course the recent price of oil doesn't help but then again, maybe in ROC's case it does with the hedging fiasco.

[CapnBirdseye]

More downward movement for ROC. Have doubled down on this one in the last week, and its still dropping to bargain basement prices.

Having a look at the trades today, does something seem fishy?

[Pager]

does something seem fishy?

LOL CapnBirdseye :D

Bet you never realised what you posted ;)

Well it made me chuckle :p:

As for ROC, seems to be joining the ranks of the dogs, or should that be old sea dogs ?

[seasprite]

I am not a holder of ROC , however that is absolute craziness of where ROC's share price is at the moment .

I see Aspect Huntley valuation is $3.20 on 3/11/2008.
I tend to personally apply the 2/3rds rule with these valuations which is
around the $2.13 mark. So I'm buggered if I know why this is so low.

[kirtdog]

whats doing is this company about to die or something?? its share price is so low if it bounces back to old highs u would multiply ur cash by 9

[oldblue]

whats doing is this company about to die or something?? its share price is so low if it bounces back to old highs u would multiply ur cash by 9

Apart from the PoO, a couple of reasons for the poor SP performance may be the dispute over the contract for the BMG FPSO ( ROC now have 40% of BMG via AZA takeover) and the apparent further deferment of the Beibu Gulf field. ROC is also 40% partner and operator here.

Disc: Not holding.

[aussiger]

Does anybody knows something about the financial status of this company? Are they in big red depts, going bankrupt or is everything alright? :confused:

[Justthinkin]

aussiger

I think ol blue's comments are close. I also see a substantial shareholder notice to ROC this morning whereby Nexus have off-loaded another 10mil shares. By comparison to an Nexus AGM presentation, Nexus have in fact offloaded nigh 20mil shares ... I suspect this reflects their (Nexus) predicament rather than ROC's.:banghead:

The BMG situation I think is worthy of a watch!

DYOR. I'm long ROC:D

[Justthinkin]

ROC features often in my daily dog list and it has acheived the award again today. :banghead:

In view of the announcement I closed out my position today. It seems to me that a major shareholder is hell bent on closing out its position at 53 cents. So far NXS seems to have sold 20mil of its 54 mil portfolio...apparently on market.

If I were a ROC director I might call the NXS director and inquire (a) what the hell is he doing? :mad:(b) what drugs he is on? :mad:and (c) if NXS is hell bent on closing them out, can ROC help with a sensible placement?

If I were an NXS director, I think I'd ask ROC did they know of any interested party...surely a discrete sale of a significant parcel would yield a better outcome?:rolleyes: It might be possible to conclude that ROC couldn't identify a sesnible party


As I'm not a director and am not really close to NXS other than reading some of the commentary on this forum, I'd just as soon stand aside until it settles. Heaven forbid if NXS were required as part of a funding strategy / debt obligation to close out the entire 54 million parcel... quickly. Ouch.:eek:

DYOR... I really don't have a clue and so would prefer to sit on the fence and contemplate!

[resourceboom]

I think that if the oil price remains at a reasonable level once NXS finished selling out there should be a good bounce in ROC, as the majority of the selling pressure will be gone.

I closed my NXS position today (disappointed Libra not in communication with Crux) and think I'll put the funds into ROC in a week or so. I think there'll still be 2 weeks of NXS selling.

[Family_Guy]

See that 30+mil get dumped at 52c just after 1pm and again another few million at 1.35pm that dragged the SP from 57 down to 52. Man, what a call, i sold at 57 and 2 minutes later rebought it at 52.

Do they have any more to get rid of? or is that it now?

[UPKA]

record volume today... i think its safe to say that its bouncing off the floor @50c, its value is finally realised. averaging 10,000BOPD, definitely undervalued to others.

[GREENS]

The main reason for the share decline (once the drop in crude oil is taken into account) is shareholder disapproval with the highly dilutive share issue to purchase all of Anzon. It has pretty much doubled the amount of shares the company has on issue, meaning any future exploration success will be much less in terms of value per share to original ROC shareholders. What makes matters worse is that this deal was made when oil was hitting its peak and no hedging was put in place at these prices. So really it was a double whammy for ROC shareholders. Then you throw into the mix the loss of a Dr John Doran a geological wiz and one fine CEO, an expensive drilling program in 08 which has yielded very little and now a possible lawsuit with contracting for a FPSO at BMG. 08 was really one bad year for the company, who knows 09 might just be as bad or worse but let’s hope not.

In terms of Beibu Gulf in China, I’m not really too fussed about the deferment because a development area has been granted by the Chinese authorities meaning the project has been given the green light. Things are being held up because of the conflicting ideas in terms of the development plan. CNOOC wants to lower the cost of the project by using a tie back system to their existing facilities a few km’s to the west instead of using the Australian JV team’s idea of a standalone system i.e. a well head platform and FPSO. The fall in the commodity prices in general is probably good news as it will lead to lower CAPEX costs for full development of this project. This is why a lot of company’s including ROC are urgently trying to exit existing contracts with oil servicing companies to take advantage of currently lower market prices for equipment and infrastructure than what has been seen over the past year/s.

Back onto BMG. If one was to try and see the positive out of its purchase which was bought to my attention by an analyst. Funding is very hard (and expensive) to come by in such an environment and is likely to be that way for a good period of time as banks ration credit to only those loans that meet a very strict criteria. Given ROC is in an industry that is heavily reliant on the price of oil a very volatile commodity of late, granting of loans for exploration programs, development or production drilling could be difficult to obtain. Given its purchase of BMG the company does not have to rely as much on its lenders but can use internal cash flow generated from the asset to continue the normal running of the company’s exploration, development and production programs. A luxury many other small oil companies are without.

In terms of NXS selling its stake in the company, this is probably just the result of a cash shortfall or debt commitments which means NXS has decided to offload one of its highly liquid assets, that being its shareholding in ROC. I’m sure ROC would also be doing the same if it was in need of some quick cash. I think the fact that ROC has yet to make a similar move indicates that it is not in desperate need of cash and is in a fairly healthy position. Agree. ROC held up extremely well today given NXS was continuing to dump its stock onto the open market.

At the end of the September quarter ROC had a cash balance of $US64.5m & gross debt of $US148.6m implying net debt of $US84.1m (excluding ROC’s >400,00bbl crude stock position and its ~10% shareholding in NXS).

Someone also asked about whether ROC was still generating positive cash flows from its operations. If you look at its half yearly results (30th June 2008) which is the most updated information I can find on this topic.

1H 07 – Production Costs = $US8.24/BBL (Cash cost/BBL)
Amortisation = $US22.45/BBL (Depreciation/BBL – non cash)
Total Cost = $US30.69/BBL

1H 08 – Production Costs = $US9.18/BBL (Cash Cost/BBL)
Amortisation = $US27.31/BBL (Depreciation/BBL – non cash)
Total Cost =$US36.49/BBL

These figures show ROC is still earning a very healthy cash margin on its operations at $40-50/bbl given cash production costs of around $10/BBL. However if ROC was looking to develop a new field it probably be looking for a sustainable future price of $45-60/BBL.

[UPKA]

great review greens :iagree:! ROC is a few mid cap around thats generating a healthy income with low debt levels. even without further exploration, with the current projects in hand it should generate quite a healthy income over the next 2-3 yrs (not to mention that it should be debt free over the next 6 or so mths). Although in the past, ROC does not have an aggressive exploration program with high risk appetite, looks like its been paid off in the current economy environment.

[champ2003]

The main reason for the share decline (once the drop in crude oil is taken into account) is shareholder disapproval with the highly dilutive share issue to purchase all of Anzon. It has pretty much doubled the amount of shares the company has on issue, meaning any future exploration success will be much less in terms of value per share to original ROC shareholders. What makes matters worse is that this deal was made when oil was hitting its peak and no hedging was put in place at these prices. So really it was a double whammy for ROC shareholders. Then you throw into the mix the loss of a Dr John Doran a geological wiz and one fine CEO, an expensive drilling program in 08 which has yielded very little and now a possible lawsuit with contracting for a FPSO at BMG. 08 was really one bad year for the company, who knows 09 might just be as bad or worse but let’s hope not.

In terms of Beibu Gulf in China, I’m not really too fussed about the deferment because a development area has been granted by the Chinese authorities meaning the project has been given the green light. Things are being held up because of the conflicting ideas in terms of the development plan. CNOOC wants to lower the cost of the project by using a tie back system to their existing facilities a few km’s to the west instead of using the Australian JV team’s idea of a standalone system i.e. a well head platform and FPSO. The fall in the commodity prices in general is probably good news as it will lead to lower CAPEX costs for full development of this project. This is why a lot of company’s including ROC are urgently trying to exit existing contracts with oil servicing companies to take advantage of currently lower market prices for equipment and infrastructure than what has been seen over the past year/s.

Back onto BMG. If one was to try and see the positive out of its purchase which was bought to my attention by an analyst. Funding is very hard (and expensive) to come by in such an environment and is likely to be that way for a good period of time as banks ration credit to only those loans that meet a very strict criteria. Given ROC is in an industry that is heavily reliant on the price of oil a very volatile commodity of late, granting of loans for exploration programs, development or production drilling could be difficult to obtain. Given its purchase of BMG the company does not have to rely as much on its lenders but can use internal cash flow generated from the asset to continue the normal running of the company’s exploration, development and production programs. A luxury many other small oil companies are without.

In terms of NXS selling its stake in the company, this is probably just the result of a cash shortfall or debt commitments which means NXS has decided to offload one of its highly liquid assets, that being its shareholding in ROC. I’m sure ROC would also be doing the same if it was in need of some quick cash. I think the fact that ROC has yet to make a similar move indicates that it is not in desperate need of cash and is in a fairly healthy position. Agree. ROC held up extremely well today given NXS was continuing to dump its stock onto the open market.

At the end of the September quarter ROC had a cash balance of $US64.5m & gross debt of $US148.6m implying net debt of $US84.1m (excluding ROC’s >400,00bbl crude stock position and its ~10% shareholding in NXS).

Someone also asked about whether ROC was still generating positive cash flows from its operations. If you look at its half yearly results (30th June 2008) which is the most updated information I can find on this topic.

1H 07 – Production Costs = $US8.24/BBL (Cash cost/BBL)
Amortisation = $US22.45/BBL (Depreciation/BBL – non cash)
Total Cost = $US30.69/BBL

1H 08 – Production Costs = $US9.18/BBL (Cash Cost/BBL)
Amortisation = $US27.31/BBL (Depreciation/BBL – non cash)
Total Cost =$US36.49/BBL

These figures show ROC is still earning a very healthy cash margin on its operations at $40-50/bbl given cash production costs of around $10/BBL. However if ROC was looking to develop a new field it probably be looking for a sustainable future price of $45-60/BBL.

Thanks for the info Greens. Another thing to note is that even IF there is a law suite it will only be over the FPSO contract and not over any of the other projects that ROC has. This also doesn't effect any of it's current production and revenues which is important for ROC as well.

All considering, the share price is still far too cheap and is way overdue for a bounce especially now that NXS is out of the picture.

[GREENS]

UPKA While forecasted exploration drilling in 09/10 is much less than its hectic 08 schedule there is still some considerably high risk/high impact acreage in ROC’s exploration portfolio.

Yeh champ just had a quick glance at that recent market release on the termination of the Letter of Intent ("LOI") signed in July 2008 for the supply of a FPSO at BMG for phase 2 expansion. The company said if BW Offshore decides to take legal action costs are capped at $US78.5m which implies ROC would have to foot the bill in a worst case scenario of 40% of these costs or $US31.4m.

[mitch87]

nice trend beggining to form upwards here for roc oil, backed with strong demand (close to twice as many as sellers) it looks as though it might be in search of its real value, in which i believe to be >$1 fingers crossed

[UPKA]

I wouldnt read into the depth too much... orders can easily be pulled on both sides. I think ROC will continue on it's sideway movement until the crude price improves, i remembered reading ROC's report/presentation that only 10% of the output r hedged, so company's profit is very much closely related to the crude spot price.

Although OPEC made record cuts in production and still considering more, but the effect of the cut won't be felt until at a much later time. A lot of energy trading companies have stocked up crude oils in tankers, punting for the oil to jump back to the US$70-80 sometime this yr.

[Family_Guy]

So, because of the low low oil price is this the reason why ROC has dropped 13c in the last 2 weeks or is there something else. Can't see anything in their presentation from 2 weeks ago that investors might not like......unless i'm missing something

[Harro7]

Came off 3 cents today (10%).

I have been watching ROC oil for the last month or so and waiting for it to find some support, but it hasn't.

I did find this - http://thecabledirectory.com/newsdetails.asp?id=8246

Can someone give me a firmer understanding of what it means?

Hopefully, it finds some support soon - could be a nice stock to attack.

[dmagnus]

When you are an explorer and you dont find anything, well u suffer, thats what happens.. some debt, lower oil prices, a poor acquisition....

alot of coys have some unstuck due to poor acquisitions lately, this wasnt a Suncorp or a Rio but, it really wasnt great... if they can go a few months without smoking themselves again they will most probably survive...

[UPKA]

When you are an explorer and you dont find anything, well u suffer, thats what happens.. some debt, lower oil prices, a poor acquisition....

alot of coys have some unstuck due to poor acquisitions lately, this wasnt a Suncorp or a Rio but, it really wasnt great... if they can go a few months without smoking themselves again they will most probably survive...

i think the term "survive" shouldnt be used with Roc. They have enough producing fields to keep them going for the next couple of years at least. They are confident enough to pay off its debts over the next 2-3yrs. Although its current producing fields r declining in production, any exploration success in Africa should see the SP head up north again.

[mitch87]

Roc looking a lot better now, breaking through the recent highs of the last month.if the oil price can hold up roc could see a re-rating.i will hold until it falls below 40c, with an aim of 55c

[UPKA]

I think the key resistance is at 50c, once that's through and NXS sold out their holdings, then we might see a significant re-rating.

[kr1zh]

It hits $0.455 today. Do not know if this stock going to the north.

Could anybody provide the plot with resistance and support line please?

[UPKA]

ROC is largely affected by the movement of the oil price, and oil price has broke thru the key resistance for USD50/b couple of days ago, and being holding, which boosted investors confidence into oil stocks again. in my previous post, i've mentioned that the key resistance for ROC is at around 50c, sorry i dont have the graph handy, but it's not hard to see.. after breaking 40c, and have held well, you can safely say that would be the new floor.

[jancha]

Hi,
Any chartist out there? What do you think about ROC? I've been topping up on this one with a base cost of 40c. At what price would you sell it at? I read somewhere that you sell at a 10% loss & a 25% profit. Any thoughts on this method of selling as i find it hard to sell on something i like & i wine up buy more instead of selling. No dicipline.

[CapnBirdseye]

At what price would you sell it at?

Now that depends on how the price action goes... the price action will guide you as to when and at what level you should buy of sell at.

[glads262]

Anyone got a current analysis on ROC??
The 1million volume has been at 41c for the past week. Good number of buyers. Seems like this has been solid support for quite a while now. Very leveraged to the POO, so this is about the only catalyst I can see for the next month or so. But is smart money starting to head into this stock?
Seems very undervalued, but then again it has been for the last couple of years.

[jonnycage]

41 cents is what i got in at a few weeks ago, and holding firm.

id be interested to hear other thoughts also

jc

[glads262]

I should add that I have averaged down a purchase at .45c about a month ago today with a purchase at .415 today.
I am thinking that the buildup of US oil inventories must be very close to reversing, I don't reckon that wasting gas guzzling country can resist buring some oil this summer at 2 bucks a gallon (.60c a litre) when last year it was 4.20 (1.20c a litre). They didn't get their summer holiday last year, so they may make up for it!

[jonnycage]

fair points! seems to be on the up today, 43 cents currently.

just needs some big backing to keep climbing : )

jc

[UPKA]

IF i remember correctly NXS still holds about 14m shares in ROC. And the company isn't in a good shape and dumping stocks at market on a regular basis, which kept the SP down. and the last annual report wasn't pleasing either, due to the purchase of AZN, right before the oil price tanked, so a $300m write down...

If you want to compare valuation between these small oil producers, take a look at AWE, valued at 1.2b. producing about 10kbopd very very similar to ORC, but 5 times the market cap... I've been accumulating when it was pushed to low 30s, been holding since. been reading thru quite a few broker's report as well, all have valued ORC to be around $2... ROC really needs to produce a decent half yr report this yr to prove itself to the market, i think that's when the stock will be revalued.

[glads262]

IF i remember correctly NXS still holds about 14m shares in ROC. And the company isn't in a good shape and dumping stocks at market on a regular basis, which kept the SP down. and the last annual report wasn't pleasing either, due to the purchase of AZN, right before the oil price tanked, so a $300m write down...

If you want to compare valuation between these small oil producers, take a look at AWE, valued at 1.2b. producing about 10kbopd very very similar to ORC, but 5 times the market cap... I've been accumulating when it was pushed to low 30s, been holding since. been reading thru quite a few broker's report as well, all have valued ORC to be around $2... ROC really needs to produce a decent half yr report this yr to prove itself to the market, i think that's when the stock will be revalued.

I reckon your right there. Lots of negative sentiment from the last 6 months, plus a large net seller on market. Once NXS has reduced their holding, hopefully smart money & lack of sellers will uptick towards at least half of a fair valuation.
Looks like to co is massively reducing exploration expenditure. Hopefully next six months can pay down debt, oil price improvements, then sitting pretty with plenty of oil production & excess cashflow.
By the looks of numbers in reports, need about 400 million to develop BMG gas, decision to be made towards the end of the year. Could possibly raise 400million debt from a nil debt position with great cashflow from a higher oil price?? Other greenfields exploration will probably be on hold for a year or so - to concentrate on current producers & large gas field.

SP increasing today, slightly higher than normal volume with no new large sellers popping up. We'll see if it can crack the 45c short term resistance. Although I reckon it may take $55 oil price for this to initially happen.

[glads262]

Just did some quick research, NXS held:
6/1 37 million shares
8/1 advised sold approx 37 million shares.

Should have a nil holding now.

[craigj]

have held the stock for around 6 weeks and seems to have strong support at 40c at present huntleys have a valuation above $2
am holding the stock and will sell half if they near 50c

[jonnycage]

great day today team, up 13% to close at 49.5 cents

bit of a run! lets break that 50 cent barrier next week

jc

[bigdog]

g lets break that 50 cent barrier next weekjc

One can see why speeding ticket issued!!!

ROC $0.565 +$0.070 +14.14% high of $0.575 with 6,756,800 shares $3,632,879 @ 04-May 11:01:03 AM

Date------ Close Volume
01-May-09 0.495 11,082,043
30-Apr-09 0.435 4,454,780
29-Apr-09 0.425 4,562,126
28-Apr-09 0.440 4,754,158
27-Apr-09 0.440 4,771,941
24-Apr-09 0.420 3,107,122
23-Apr-09 0.415 2,401,423


ASX ANN today
04/05/2009 ROC SHARE PRICE
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00949922

ROC is aware of market rumours that the Company may be subject to a takeover bid.

ROC has not received any takeover proposal. Consistent with previous public statements, ROC continues to evaluate all strategic alternatives concerning the Company's assets, ownership and capital position in the current operating environment.

ROC is in compliance with and will continue to comply with its continuous disclosure obligations.

[jonnycage]

even better now at 63 cents! making up for some serious lost ground. certainly no complaints after getting in at 41 cents average

jc

[UPKA]

ROC ran faster than I have anticipated :p, even at 60c, it is still undervalued compared to it's peers. Ultimately, it is good news that ROC is opening up its arms to potential investors into it's projects. Looks like under the current credit market, it is difficult to get funding to ramp up its BMG project, they r desperately to get BMG started so when the oil/gas price recovers, they can start profiting from it.

[kennas]

This looks prospective.

Target is about a buck on a break up.

Should put it in the pennant thread I suppose...

[Big lance]

Is there a reason for todays run?
Is this just further speculation over the potential takeover bid??

[wtang89]

Could just be following both the market run and the oil spike (up to 68 a barrel now). Who would have bought, it rebounded this quickly, bought a batch of ROC and holding

[slimdusty96]

Just had another run in the last half an hour to 72c now, but oil prices is still ~ 68.5c. Perhaps the rumour has some substance to it?:rolleyes:

[jonnycage]

this one has a lot of catching up to do, could also have something to do
with it. was belted hard.

jc

[wtang89]

Haha its about time people caught up with this gem. Oils been climbing for the last month with little movement in roc SP. In comparision, CVN has been sky rocketing.

[glads262]

DARWIN, Australia (Dow Jones)--ROC Oil Ltd. (ROC.AU) Chief Executive Bruce Clement Wednesday said that a recent recovery in oil prices means the company should be able to fund development of its Bass Strait and Chinese projects over the next few years without having to sell any more assets.

Clement, however, said ROC may have to consider its asset ownership mix, or an equity raising, if oil prices fall again and reduce its cash flow.

He reiterated that ROC will consider a full sale of the company at the right price and hasn't received any formal offers yet.

ROC plans to develop the Basker Manta Gummy project offshore Victoria state over 2010 and 2011. Clement gave a broad cost estimate of its 30% share of the project's costs at "couple of hundred million dollars".

Last month it sold 10% of Basker Manta Gummy to Indonesia's Pertamina for US$31.5 million after hiring advisers Gresham Partners to conduct a strategic review of its business.

ROC also wants to make a final investment decision on development of the Beibu Gulf project in China by year end. Development costs there have been estimated at about A$350 million and ROC is expected to end up with a 19.6% stake in the asset when China National Offshore Oil Corp. farms into the project, Clement said.

"At Brent oil less than US$50 a barrel we're doing US$100 million cash flow and we're aiming for similar in the next two years," Clement told Dow Jones Newswires on the sidelines of an industry conference.

"If oil stays between US$60 and US$70 our funding requirements will be considerably less. We have good leverage to the oil price."

ROC is aiming to restructure its core banking facility, which amortizes in 2011, by near the end of the year, Clement said. "We're not rushing because this is not the best time in the world of debt to be doing it," he said.

Clement said ROC is happy with performance of its non-core, British assets and isn't actively looking to sell them.

In the case of a funding shortfall, Clement said ROC would need to "consider the right asset mix or balance".

"Then there's always (raising) equity in the background," he said.

"At 66 cents, our share price looks a lot better than 44 cents."

"I think our share price will rise as we deliver on the production and operating side of the business," he said.

At 0215 GMT, Roc's share price was up 2.3% at 67.5 cents compared with a 0.6% rise in the overall market

-By Ross Kelly, Dow Jones Newswires;

[awhite_au]

Quite a newcomer to this game. Bought into this stock arond 42cents and they've risen quite solidly since. Anyone out there got any tips on market conditions and price that could be considered a smart time to sell?

[JnrTrader]

Roc is a great, financially stable company and you have done well to buy in at those prices.Roc's share price will be highly correlated with the price per barrel of oil, so you need to consider where oil is headed.Roc has scaled down their exploration significantly so theres not going to be a great deal of short term exposure with discoverys.my short term view is that maybe oil is due for a bit of a correction, so to roc

[aussie86]

Well looks like they're doing an equity capital raising. Will constititute and institutional Share Placement of ~88m shares and share placement plan (SPP) for us ordinary punters.

The price will be the lower of the institutional price or 5% discount to the 5 day weighted average in the week before the SPP closes.
Existing shareholders will be able to purchase up to $15k of roc shares.

Still in trading halt from the announcement.

[jonnycage]

probably a good move, sure up the capital.


will be interesting to see what price the new ones end up at.


jc

[JnrTrader]

i think this was a very good move, and the fact that its only a minor raising (68m) is quite attractive. By paying down debt, this raising will unlock future value a lot sooner i believe with further development and exploration drilling, short term still puzzles me, especially the price per barrel of oil currently at $71, will it hit $50 again before it goes to $100?? and i suppose the corresponding q, will roc hit 60c again before pushing through the $1 mark

[gooner]

i think this was a very good move, and the fact that its only a minor raising (68m) is quite attractive. By paying down debt, this raising will unlock future value a lot sooner i believe with further development and exploration drilling, short term still puzzles me, especially the price per barrel of oil currently at $71, will it hit $50 again before it goes to $100?? and i suppose the corresponding q, will roc hit 60c again before pushing through the $1 mark


A good move, but only if management invest it property rather than wasting it on expensive acquisitions like they did last year

[JnrTrader]

well i guess they have almost hit the 60c line valuing them at around $400m, which i guess is fair considering the price for oil has corrected and perhaps falling further, but how much further can it fall at $62??

[jonnycage]

so i wonder what the average price will be for the share offer in the end, cant imagine it will be 78 cents ? is anyone going to take up the offer ?

after being very fortunate and lucky more then anything to pick mine up
at 41 cents, not sure

[skyQuake]

SPP @ Lower of 78c or 5% Disc to 5day VWAP..

If its been rallying in the last 5 days then its prob decent buy.

[bigdog]

Applications to participate in Roc Oil’s share purchase plan (SPP) must be received by 7 Aug (next Friday).

There has not been a major positive announcement and takeup will be interesting!

The share price hasn’t traded above 80 cents since the SPP ANN.

Closing SP July 31 was 74 cents.

[jonnycage]

so to take up or not ? have to make that bpay shortly if going for it,
doesnt jump out as a bargin, perhaps others are thinking the same thing

jc

[bigdog]

ROC SP: 0.725 +0.010 +1.40% high of 0.73 494,600 shares $357,763 @ 19-Aug 10:20:13 AM

ASX ANN
19/08/2009 Basker-Manta-Gummy Asset Sale Completion
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/displayAnnouncement.do?display=pdf&idsId=00978675

BASKER-MANTA-GUMMY ("BMG"): ASSET SALE COMPLETION

Following receipt of government and joint venture approvals and satisfaction of other conditions precedent, Anzon Australia Pty Limited, a wholly owned subsidiary of ROC, has completed the sale of a 10% participating interest in Production Licences VIC/L26, VIC/L27 and VIC/L28, offshore Victoria, which include the BMG project, to PT Pertamina Hulu Energi Australia Pty Limited, a subsidiary of the Indonesian National Oil Company. The effective date of the sale is 1 April 2009. Total cash consideration including working capital was US$31.5 million.

BMG joint venture participating interests are now:
Anzon Australia Pty Limited (Operator).....................................30%
Beach Petroleum Limited........................................... ...............30%
CIECO Exploration and Production (Australia) Pty Ltd...............20%
Sojitz Energy Australia Pty Ltd............................................... ...10%
PT Pertamina Hulu Energi Australia Pty Limited..........................10%

Looks like a typo!!!
"The effective date of the sale is 1 April 2009."

420

[oldblue]

No, it's not a typo.

The first announcement about this sale was made back in May. This confirms the sale following receipt of the necessary approvals.

[erinneptune]

Start active again today..does anyone know the reason behind.
I thoght it might have some movement by end of next month b4 the report is out.

[jonnycage]

not that active really : (

if you got in at the placement you couldnt be happy with the price at present

time will tell

jc

[erinneptune]

I will wait and see till WA-351-P news release..the volume is quite high today compare to few days ago

[ilario]

Does anyone know anything about a possible Chinese takeover of Roc Oil by SinoPec ?

[YELNATS]

Roc has today announced about a 70-80% downgrade in its Basker-Manta-Gummy project in Bass Strait. As a result its share price has been decimated by about 30% to about 45c.

On the other hand Beach Energy, also a 30% partner in the project, has had its share price only move a few cents today.

I wonder why the sp of the two companies has reacted differently today. Is it because Beach has already written down its estimate of the project in June 2009 by about 60%?

If so, why has it taken Roc so long to correct their estimate of the project?

[oldblue]

I don't know what percentage of ROC's 2P reserves is represented by BMG but Beach has come out and announced that the downgrade, if confirmed, constitutes only 2% of their total reserve base.

As noted, BPT had previously adjusted down their share of the BMG reserves.

[skc]

Roc has today announced about a 70-80% downgrade in its Basker-Manta-Gummy project in Bass Strait. As a result its share price has been decimated by about 30% to about 45c.

On the other hand Beach Energy, also a 30% partner in the project, has had its share price only move a few cents today.

I wonder why the sp of the two companies has reacted differently today. Is it because Beach has already written down its estimate of the project in June 2009 by about 60%?

If so, why has it taken Roc so long to correct their estimate of the project?

Their interest in the project may be the same, but it surely depends on what that account's for the company's overall portfolio of projects?

It may be 1 of 2 projects for ROC, and 1 of 8 projects for BPT?

[YELNATS]

Their interest in the project may be the same, but it surely depends on what that account's for the company's overall portfolio of projects?

It may be 1 of 2 projects for ROC, and 1 of 8 projects for BPT?

Point taken, but I still wonder about the timing of ROC's downgrade versus the one done by BPT about 7 months earlier.

[dutchie]

A bad day for ROC about 10% of shares traded.

Support at 40c?

Looks like a bit of inside trading on Monday.

[jancha]

Their interest in the project may be the same, but it surely depends on what that account's for the company's overall portfolio of projects?

It may be 1 of 2 projects for ROC, and 1 of 8 projects for BPT?

ROC has 6 producing fields with a P/E Ratio of 7.10.
Huntleys recommendation was a buy but now currently under review.
Wonder what they come up with after they do their sums.
Personally i think its been over sold.
Surely one project doesn't constitute a 35% drop in their sp.

[oldblue]

ROC has 6 producing fields with a P/E Ratio of 7.10.
Huntleys recommendation was a buy but now currently under review.
Wonder what they come up with after they do their sums.
Personally i think its been over sold.
Surely one project doesn't constitute a 35% drop in their sp.

Only if it also represents about 35% of their reserves.

According to reports, the downgrade drops their 2P reserves by 20-25% but then there's also the impact on ROC's credibility.

I also think that the SP drop's been a bit overdone but then I don't hold ROC.

[jancha]

Only if it also represents about 35% of their reserves.

According to reports, the downgrade drops their 2P reserves by 20-25% but then there's also the impact on ROC's credibility.

I also think that the SP drop's been a bit overdone but then I don't hold ROC.

Cheers for that Old Blue.
Noticed that there was a (becoming a substantial holder in Blackrock investments) in trading news after the close of trade,
Shouldn't it be ceasing to be substantial holder under the circumstances?

[zzaaxxss3401]

Looks like a bit of inside trading on Monday.

How does this figure? Most stocks dropped on Monday due to the negative lead from the US on Friday evening. If there was "inside trading" on Monday, then why was Tuesday almost dead flat (but gained) prior to the announcement Wednesday - wouldn't you expect a drop on Tuesday as well? :confused:

Current holder of ROC (bought @ 44c Wednesday).

[SteeleBryant]

Roc Oil right down at the moment. They are making their announcement for 2009 on the 23rd of February (or there abouts). They have already made an announcement showing the downgrade of their oil reserves from 18million barrels to 3-5 million barrels. Should be an interesting one to watch up until that date?

[rogerpet]

Notice that orbis mis have been increasing (doubling) their holding in ROC throughout the recent plunge in ROC's SP.

Does anyone have views on what their interest might be? Easy to see from their website that they are openly contrariarian and like to invest in companies whose share prices "do not reflect the intrinsic value of the underlying business".

Seems like a rather big "Punt" - or can they see value that the rest of us can't.

4therecord, I hold ROC (unfortunatley)

[Efresh]

So ROC rallied hard on friday, up 7.4% with no announcement on a generally flat day. Anyone have an idea on what might be behind it? Big Insto buying?

[jonnycage]

ah good old Roc oil, anyone see any glimer of hope in the future
for these guys ? had too many chances ?

j c

[jonnycage]

ok because i enjoy pain got back in at 33.5cents today, might be a quick
flick if there is a bounce : )

j c

[Mister Mark]

I still hold roc (sadly) from cr, dream of a revival one day but not confident, but in my limited knowledge maybee not a bad short trade?

[jonnycage]

anyone following this trainwreck still ? lol ah the days of 80 cents seem so
far away. where to from here ?

j c

[cupnoodle]

I'm looking to join in @ 0.355. Fingers crossed, their previous quarterly report looked promising.

[WaveSurfer]

Potential accumulation taking place. Could take a while to manifest, but this one's on my watch list. Plenty of room to the upside :)

If it gets back down towards the 30c area on low volume, I might take and punt and buy a little with a tight stop.

[zzaaxxss3401]

If it gets back down towards the 30c area on low volume, I might take and punt and buy a little with a tight stop.
I'm anticipating a breakout very shortly - up. Low volumes. Wedge forming. Any reason why you think it might head south?
41026

[WaveSurfer]

I'm anticipating a breakout very shortly - up. Low volumes. Wedge forming. Any reason why you think it might head south?
41026

Hey zz,

Yeah for sure mate, technically she's looking ripe for a move up. Not sure what the funnymentals are saying about this one, I rarely take any notice anyway :D

What got me interested was this wide spread down on ridiculous volume. I like the close to be up off the low a bit more, but we can't have it all text book. It has knocked the price sideways for the past year.

Can think of a million reasons why it could go south, but the upside is looking like the better punt. Seems to be well supported at 30c with strong resistance just under a buck.

[jonnycage]

2 great recent posts there guys cheers. i did get out earlier in the year after a quick gain, but these guys definately back in the radar zone for me also

jc