guycharles
24th-June-2004, 09:08 AM
We have seen the false start and the consolidation. Now that more and more people are starting to realise inflation is about to go nuts and that is good for Gold.
View Full Version : Gold Price - Where is it heading?
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Joe Blow
24th-June-2004, 12:18 PM
I believe Gold could go either way. It has certainly been making ground on the back of global uncertainty with all this terrorism business.
And I agree that higher inflation would definitely have a positive impact on the price of gold.
But what about the strength of the American economy? When the American economy booms, the price of gold tends to suffer as people turn away from the yellow metal and into other investment vehicles. Lately US growth has been strong and I'm beginning to think that this is what has been holding gold back lately.
I'm largely undecided although if I was a betting man I'd say it'll see US$410 again before it sees US$350.
Anyway, here's the chart.
Would love to hear some other views.
And I agree that higher inflation would definitely have a positive impact on the price of gold.
But what about the strength of the American economy? When the American economy booms, the price of gold tends to suffer as people turn away from the yellow metal and into other investment vehicles. Lately US growth has been strong and I'm beginning to think that this is what has been holding gold back lately.
I'm largely undecided although if I was a betting man I'd say it'll see US$410 again before it sees US$350.
Anyway, here's the chart.
Would love to hear some other views.
wayneL
10th-July-2004, 04:45 PM
You shoulda had that bet Joe!
August Gold threatening 410 as I type. Interesting to see if it stays in the channel or pops out.
August Gold threatening 410 as I type. Interesting to see if it stays in the channel or pops out.
wayneL
10th-July-2004, 11:20 PM
The goldbugs haven't got all the excitement to themselves.
Silver is making a statement of it's own by breaking out of the range ;D
A slightly unexpected windfall for the channel traders ;)
Silver is making a statement of it's own by breaking out of the range ;D
A slightly unexpected windfall for the channel traders ;)
Joe Blow
11th-July-2004, 09:43 AM
You shoulda had that bet Joe!
August Gold threatening 410 as I type. Interesting to see if it stays in the channel or pops out.
Yeah, I got out of OXR a little too early. Too impatient.
Oh well, a lesson learned!
:-/
August Gold threatening 410 as I type. Interesting to see if it stays in the channel or pops out.
Yeah, I got out of OXR a little too early. Too impatient.
Oh well, a lesson learned!
:-/
wayneL
14th-July-2004, 10:04 PM
That channel contained the gold price action. August Gold being around 402 atm.
If the bottom of the channel proves to be support yet again, we are talking about 392 before a bounce.
Silver back to around 6.40 also.
Cheers
If the bottom of the channel proves to be support yet again, we are talking about 392 before a bounce.
Silver back to around 6.40 also.
Cheers
Jett_Star
21st-July-2004, 11:32 AM
You shoulda had that bet Joe!
August Gold threatening 410 as I type. Interesting to see if it stays in the channel or pops out.
:o
August Gold threatening 410 as I type. Interesting to see if it stays in the channel or pops out.
:o
wayneL
21st-July-2004, 02:11 PM
Jet_Star,
You will be happy to know that it has stayed in the channel :D
You will be happy to know that it has stayed in the channel :D
mudguts
21st-July-2004, 05:20 PM
I am sorry to say that as a gold punter myself the fact that global chaos equalls gains in the gold sector i find a story in the news on some sort of de stabilising event gives me some sort of morbid satisfaction that the stock i hold will go up at the expense of some poor third world gutter dweller.
RichKid
22nd-July-2004, 10:40 AM
Gold might bounce back down a bit after having another run at 440 but once it breaks that it's unlikely that it'll break 400 again. So, in the short term, it may be in a minor retreat but from what I've heard from some forecasters next year will be a watershed. I'm not sure it Gold will continue to be affected by the US economy or the US dollar as much as in the past. Will just have to see where we are at after the US elections and subsequent interest rate moves.
wayneL
23rd-July-2004, 03:03 PM
Channel traders will be salivating at this setup to go long.
Stay tuned!
Stay tuned!
Jett_Star
24th-July-2004, 03:42 AM
Jet_Star,
You will be happy to know that it has stayed in the channel *:D
Happy, very happy! ;)
You will be happy to know that it has stayed in the channel *:D
Happy, very happy! ;)
wayneL
24th-July-2004, 04:06 PM
Oops! It dropped out! :o hehe
RichKid
3rd-August-2004, 10:05 AM
Okay people, gold is having another run, hang on for the ride!!
stefan
4th-August-2004, 03:21 AM
As long as terrorist alerts are issued in the US, we will see gold trading at very high levels. So this could go on for a while...
Happy trading
Stefan
Happy trading
Stefan
wayneL
4th-August-2004, 08:40 PM
Doesn't look that bullish to me! In fact its generating a sell signal on my system tonight.(tentatively at this stage)
wayneL
4th-August-2004, 10:19 PM
gold closing towards highs...cancel sell signal
stefan
5th-August-2004, 04:08 AM
Wayne,
This is why I'm critical about charts. They don't have the ability to take anything but historical data into consideration. If there is a terrorist threat then your chart is not going to act differently. But this will have a significant impact on gold. As it has on oil.
So I believe that charts can only do the trick in a "normal" trading environment. And since we are not exactly living in trouble free times, I doubt that you will be very successful following charts in gold and oil.
Just my idea. I know that there are a lot of members who trade based on charts.
Happy trading
Stefan
This is why I'm critical about charts. They don't have the ability to take anything but historical data into consideration. If there is a terrorist threat then your chart is not going to act differently. But this will have a significant impact on gold. As it has on oil.
So I believe that charts can only do the trick in a "normal" trading environment. And since we are not exactly living in trouble free times, I doubt that you will be very successful following charts in gold and oil.
Just my idea. I know that there are a lot of members who trade based on charts.
Happy trading
Stefan
RichKid
5th-August-2004, 09:48 AM
My understanding is that Gold is a great hedge against high volatility (high risk), hence when things are unsettled everyone runs to Gold as it's considered safe- hope I got this right. So terrorist attacks should mean higher Gold prices. Still, I follow the trend (as it's my friend!) so all you can do is time your entry and exists properly. But then that's just my understanding and I do keep revising my outlook. Anyone think different? Comments?
Oil may be a different story but I expect high oil prices to continue for the foreseeable future.
RichKid
Oil may be a different story but I expect high oil prices to continue for the foreseeable future.
RichKid
wayneL
5th-August-2004, 04:02 PM
>>This is why I'm critical about charts. They don't have the ability to take anything but historical data into consideration. <<
This is true Stefan, but this is also true of any form of analysis. There is no analysis that can predict the future. We can only make projection/educated guesses.
>>If there is a terrorist threat then your chart is not going to act differently. But this will have a significant impact on gold. As it has on oil.<<
Oil and Gold have given excellent technical signals lately. Some have worked, some haven't...no differnt to normal.
However no analysis will be of much use in a sudden event such as a terrorist attack.
>>So I believe that charts can only do the trick in a "normal" trading environment.<<
Yes I do agree with this. Extreme volatilty is a pig to trade. But once again, this is no different to f/a. The fundy or the techie will need deep pockets indeed to trade these events...unless already on the right side of the movement.
I don't know how a fundy would do it but a techie will ajust trading plan and position size to account for the volatility
>>And since we are not exactly living in trouble free times, I doubt that you will be very successful following charts in gold and oil.<<
My account shows otherwise ;)
As for the tading signal I posted above. Bear in mind that is was t/a which alerted me to a *potential* trading opportunity. It was also t/a which ultimatey discounted the signal as invalid...In other words my sytem worked ecaxtly the way I wanted it to.
The aim is not to be right 100% of the time. The aim is to maximise gain as a % of dollars risked. My expectancy figures have been in excess of 1.5 for a loooong time. So you can decide t/a is not for you, but you cannot legitimately deny that t/a works. That would be like me saying f/a does not work, which is obviously ludicrous.
I'll let you in on a secret. I'm a terrible fundamental analysist. It doesn't work for me. But I cannot deny that it works. Buffet et al would not even bother laughing if I said someting as silly as that.
But try to walk up to the folks at Dunn Capital and tell them t/a doesn't work. They would recommend a nice friendly therapist for you.
Cheers
This is true Stefan, but this is also true of any form of analysis. There is no analysis that can predict the future. We can only make projection/educated guesses.
>>If there is a terrorist threat then your chart is not going to act differently. But this will have a significant impact on gold. As it has on oil.<<
Oil and Gold have given excellent technical signals lately. Some have worked, some haven't...no differnt to normal.
However no analysis will be of much use in a sudden event such as a terrorist attack.
>>So I believe that charts can only do the trick in a "normal" trading environment.<<
Yes I do agree with this. Extreme volatilty is a pig to trade. But once again, this is no different to f/a. The fundy or the techie will need deep pockets indeed to trade these events...unless already on the right side of the movement.
I don't know how a fundy would do it but a techie will ajust trading plan and position size to account for the volatility
>>And since we are not exactly living in trouble free times, I doubt that you will be very successful following charts in gold and oil.<<
My account shows otherwise ;)
As for the tading signal I posted above. Bear in mind that is was t/a which alerted me to a *potential* trading opportunity. It was also t/a which ultimatey discounted the signal as invalid...In other words my sytem worked ecaxtly the way I wanted it to.
The aim is not to be right 100% of the time. The aim is to maximise gain as a % of dollars risked. My expectancy figures have been in excess of 1.5 for a loooong time. So you can decide t/a is not for you, but you cannot legitimately deny that t/a works. That would be like me saying f/a does not work, which is obviously ludicrous.
I'll let you in on a secret. I'm a terrible fundamental analysist. It doesn't work for me. But I cannot deny that it works. Buffet et al would not even bother laughing if I said someting as silly as that.
But try to walk up to the folks at Dunn Capital and tell them t/a doesn't work. They would recommend a nice friendly therapist for you.
Cheers
stefan
6th-August-2004, 03:48 AM
Wayne,
Excellent posting. I'm not after proofing that T/A is crap. I'm taking the view that there are too many T/A done on stocks who simply don't work that way. One of it is gold. Now there is of course also the simple fact that things work because so many people believe in it.
This is true Stefan, but this is also true of any form of analysis. There is no analysis that can predict the future. We can only make projection/educated guesses.
Wayne, this is not what I'm trying to say. Of course there is no form of analysis that can predict the future. However, if the US is on terror alert, then I as a human being with some sort of intelligence, can take that into consideration. I will therefore go and buy gold. Simply because gold is s save heaven and tends to rise in troubled times. Charts on the other hand won't see anything like that. So you may get a sell signal based on historical data when in fact the price is about to rise considerably. Regardles of any point of resistance or trading pattern. So if you're saying that we can only make educated guesses, then that's exactly my point. An educated guess for gold has nothing to do with a chart. It has to do with the current situation on this planet rather than historical figures and trend lines.
The aim is not to be right 100% of the time. The aim is to maximise gain as a % of dollars risked.
I agree. And that's again exactly why I'm questioning a T/A on gold. I for one prefer to maximise my gain by looking at critical factors that may influence a price. I let you in on a secret, too: ;)
I'm not here to damn T/A or to proof that it doesn't work. I'm here to question it's method on certain stocks or commodities. Why? Because as far as I can see, this board is full of people who use charts. So it's time that somebody takes a different view. Not for the sake of it but to fire up a discussion just like the one we're having here right now.
I most enjoy reading other people's opinion. People like yourself who actually know why they are doing certain things are well worth my time. There are just too many traders out there who believe in something just because they read a book or just because they visited a seminar.
Happy trading
Stefan
Excellent posting. I'm not after proofing that T/A is crap. I'm taking the view that there are too many T/A done on stocks who simply don't work that way. One of it is gold. Now there is of course also the simple fact that things work because so many people believe in it.
This is true Stefan, but this is also true of any form of analysis. There is no analysis that can predict the future. We can only make projection/educated guesses.
Wayne, this is not what I'm trying to say. Of course there is no form of analysis that can predict the future. However, if the US is on terror alert, then I as a human being with some sort of intelligence, can take that into consideration. I will therefore go and buy gold. Simply because gold is s save heaven and tends to rise in troubled times. Charts on the other hand won't see anything like that. So you may get a sell signal based on historical data when in fact the price is about to rise considerably. Regardles of any point of resistance or trading pattern. So if you're saying that we can only make educated guesses, then that's exactly my point. An educated guess for gold has nothing to do with a chart. It has to do with the current situation on this planet rather than historical figures and trend lines.
The aim is not to be right 100% of the time. The aim is to maximise gain as a % of dollars risked.
I agree. And that's again exactly why I'm questioning a T/A on gold. I for one prefer to maximise my gain by looking at critical factors that may influence a price. I let you in on a secret, too: ;)
I'm not here to damn T/A or to proof that it doesn't work. I'm here to question it's method on certain stocks or commodities. Why? Because as far as I can see, this board is full of people who use charts. So it's time that somebody takes a different view. Not for the sake of it but to fire up a discussion just like the one we're having here right now.
I most enjoy reading other people's opinion. People like yourself who actually know why they are doing certain things are well worth my time. There are just too many traders out there who believe in something just because they read a book or just because they visited a seminar.
Happy trading
Stefan
ghotib
6th-August-2004, 04:50 AM
This feels like stupid question, but anyway...
When you buy or sell metals, you're dealing in ingots right? So what's the physical process at settlement? i.e. how do the ingots get from seller to buyer?
I love gold, but not in the form of ingots. We bought Newcrest at 1.90 ;D
Ghoti
When you buy or sell metals, you're dealing in ingots right? So what's the physical process at settlement? i.e. how do the ingots get from seller to buyer?
I love gold, but not in the form of ingots. We bought Newcrest at 1.90 ;D
Ghoti
wayneL
6th-August-2004, 08:09 PM
Ah Stefan,
I am beginning to see where you are coming from.
>>I'm not after proofing that T/A is crap. I'm taking the view that there are too many T/A done on stocks who simply don't work that way. <<
I'm right with you here. I am very selective of with charts I trade. They have to have a history conforming to my particular brand of t/a. For instance NAB: A complete waste of time with my method! Never went near it when trading the ASX.
>>One of it is gold.<<
We wil just have to agree to disagree here ;)
>>Now there is of course also the simple fact that things work because so many people believe in it.<<
Yes is can be a self fulfilling prophecy, particularly in the futures markets. I don't use what most people use, but, I still look for what most people use cause I want to be in the market *before* the rest of the world ;D
>>Wayne, this is not what I'm trying to say. Of course there is no form of analysis that can predict the future. However, if the US is on terror alert, then I as a human being with some sort of intelligence, can take that into consideration. I will therefore go and buy gold. Simply because gold is s save heaven and tends to rise in troubled times. Charts on the other hand won't see anything like that. So you may get a sell signal based on historical data when in fact the price is about to rise considerably. Regardles of any point of resistance or trading pattern. So if you're saying that we can only make educated guesses, then that's exactly my point. An educated guess for gold has nothing to do with a chart. It has to do with the current situation on this planet rather than historical figures and trend lines.<<
There are quite a few strong hands that discount this view. These people/institutions have relegated gold to just another bloody commodity. However there still are a lot of people who take the same view as yourself. I'm on the sidelines for an opinion atm....but I believe fiat money will be in for a hard time in the future, so leaning towards the "gold is currency" view I suppose.
I do maintain that technical signals will get me into the market at an appropriate point. However, in the case of a shock event and gold spike, I keep a permanent contingency order in the market to catch it if I am sleeping or otherwise engaged.
>>I'm not here to damn T/A or to proof that it doesn't work. I'm here to question it's method on certain stocks or commodities. Why? Because as far as I can see, this board is full of people who use charts. So it's time that somebody takes a different view. Not for the sake of it but to fire up a discussion just like the one we're having here right now.<<
Fair enough too. It is from robust discussion that we all can learn from each other :)
I am beginning to see where you are coming from.
>>I'm not after proofing that T/A is crap. I'm taking the view that there are too many T/A done on stocks who simply don't work that way. <<
I'm right with you here. I am very selective of with charts I trade. They have to have a history conforming to my particular brand of t/a. For instance NAB: A complete waste of time with my method! Never went near it when trading the ASX.
>>One of it is gold.<<
We wil just have to agree to disagree here ;)
>>Now there is of course also the simple fact that things work because so many people believe in it.<<
Yes is can be a self fulfilling prophecy, particularly in the futures markets. I don't use what most people use, but, I still look for what most people use cause I want to be in the market *before* the rest of the world ;D
>>Wayne, this is not what I'm trying to say. Of course there is no form of analysis that can predict the future. However, if the US is on terror alert, then I as a human being with some sort of intelligence, can take that into consideration. I will therefore go and buy gold. Simply because gold is s save heaven and tends to rise in troubled times. Charts on the other hand won't see anything like that. So you may get a sell signal based on historical data when in fact the price is about to rise considerably. Regardles of any point of resistance or trading pattern. So if you're saying that we can only make educated guesses, then that's exactly my point. An educated guess for gold has nothing to do with a chart. It has to do with the current situation on this planet rather than historical figures and trend lines.<<
There are quite a few strong hands that discount this view. These people/institutions have relegated gold to just another bloody commodity. However there still are a lot of people who take the same view as yourself. I'm on the sidelines for an opinion atm....but I believe fiat money will be in for a hard time in the future, so leaning towards the "gold is currency" view I suppose.
I do maintain that technical signals will get me into the market at an appropriate point. However, in the case of a shock event and gold spike, I keep a permanent contingency order in the market to catch it if I am sleeping or otherwise engaged.
>>I'm not here to damn T/A or to proof that it doesn't work. I'm here to question it's method on certain stocks or commodities. Why? Because as far as I can see, this board is full of people who use charts. So it's time that somebody takes a different view. Not for the sake of it but to fire up a discussion just like the one we're having here right now.<<
Fair enough too. It is from robust discussion that we all can learn from each other :)
wayneL
6th-August-2004, 08:59 PM
This feels like stupid question, but anyway...
When you buy or sell metals, you're dealing in ingots right? *So what's the physical process at settlement? i.e. how do the ingots get from seller to buyer?
I love gold, but not in the form of ingots. We bought Newcrest at 1.90 *;D
Ghoti
Hey Ghoti,
My charts above are gold futures. 1 contract is 1000 troy ozs. Hardly any futures contracts ever go to actual physical settlement.
http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/GC_spec.jsp
When you buy or sell metals, you're dealing in ingots right? *So what's the physical process at settlement? i.e. how do the ingots get from seller to buyer?
I love gold, but not in the form of ingots. We bought Newcrest at 1.90 *;D
Ghoti
Hey Ghoti,
My charts above are gold futures. 1 contract is 1000 troy ozs. Hardly any futures contracts ever go to actual physical settlement.
http://www.nymex.com/jsp/markets/GC_spec.jsp
stefan
7th-August-2004, 05:05 AM
We wil just have to agree to disagree here
So be it then. ;D
These people/institutions have relegated gold to just another bloody commodity. However there still are a lot of people who take the same view as yourself.
I know. Due to the many gold related things one can trade these days, it would appear that gold is coming in line with other commodities. But while it has lost a lot of its former glory during the tech bubble where everybody was crying about its slow performance, things and times have changed. We are back in uncertain, unstable times and that's when people tend to remember the old values like gold. It has a magical touch to it and it won't go away that quick.
I've never traded gold, but I sure wish I did :-)
Happy trading
Stefan
So be it then. ;D
These people/institutions have relegated gold to just another bloody commodity. However there still are a lot of people who take the same view as yourself.
I know. Due to the many gold related things one can trade these days, it would appear that gold is coming in line with other commodities. But while it has lost a lot of its former glory during the tech bubble where everybody was crying about its slow performance, things and times have changed. We are back in uncertain, unstable times and that's when people tend to remember the old values like gold. It has a magical touch to it and it won't go away that quick.
I've never traded gold, but I sure wish I did :-)
Happy trading
Stefan
ghotib
9th-August-2004, 06:35 PM
Thanks Wayne,
I noticed your post about the settlement fails over on propertyinvesting. I gather that you agree, as I do, with the comment from Gary North that systems fail "at the margins" i.e. where attention is not focussed.
As a trader, your whole business would be dependent on settlements systems yes? I'd be interested in your thoughts about the probabilities and impact of failure of one or more of those systems, and what protections you have in place for yourself.
I'm happy to read about them in a website article if that's easier for you.
Cheers,
Ghoti
I noticed your post about the settlement fails over on propertyinvesting. I gather that you agree, as I do, with the comment from Gary North that systems fail "at the margins" i.e. where attention is not focussed.
As a trader, your whole business would be dependent on settlements systems yes? I'd be interested in your thoughts about the probabilities and impact of failure of one or more of those systems, and what protections you have in place for yourself.
I'm happy to read about them in a website article if that's easier for you.
Cheers,
Ghoti
wayneL
10th-August-2004, 03:21 PM
Thanks Wayne,
I noticed your post about the settlement fails over on propertyinvesting. I gather that you agree, as I do, with the comment from Gary North that systems fail "at the margins" i.e. where attention is not focussed.
As a trader, your whole business would be dependent on settlements systems yes? I'd be interested in your thoughts about the probabilities and impact of failure of one or more of those systems, and what protections you have in place for yourself.
I'm happy to read about them in a website article if that's easier for you. *
Cheers,
Ghoti
:o I must admit that it is a source of alarm. I am still investigating the ramifications of settlement failure for my business.
If the system did fail, how long will it take to restore? This is an unknown!
The article suggests having enough gold and silver coinage to get by until sytems were restored. I havn't gone to this length, though I know a few people who have.
You will have noticed a few have poo-hooed this as a measure over at PI.
This makes me think it's not a bad idea.... hmmmmmm.
I noticed your post about the settlement fails over on propertyinvesting. I gather that you agree, as I do, with the comment from Gary North that systems fail "at the margins" i.e. where attention is not focussed.
As a trader, your whole business would be dependent on settlements systems yes? I'd be interested in your thoughts about the probabilities and impact of failure of one or more of those systems, and what protections you have in place for yourself.
I'm happy to read about them in a website article if that's easier for you. *
Cheers,
Ghoti
:o I must admit that it is a source of alarm. I am still investigating the ramifications of settlement failure for my business.
If the system did fail, how long will it take to restore? This is an unknown!
The article suggests having enough gold and silver coinage to get by until sytems were restored. I havn't gone to this length, though I know a few people who have.
You will have noticed a few have poo-hooed this as a measure over at PI.
This makes me think it's not a bad idea.... hmmmmmm.
Redwing
16th-August-2004, 02:56 AM
"GO FOR THE GOLD" Not just at the Olympics huh??
My father was going to purchase aprox $400-500k of Gold certificates at the Mint, back when it was $320 (hmmm - 2 years ago?) anyway, he thought it would hit $400. Mum talked him out of it and he's kicked himself since ;D
hindsight is a great thing huh
REDWING
My father was going to purchase aprox $400-500k of Gold certificates at the Mint, back when it was $320 (hmmm - 2 years ago?) anyway, he thought it would hit $400. Mum talked him out of it and he's kicked himself since ;D
hindsight is a great thing huh
REDWING
Jett_Star
17th-August-2004, 12:07 PM
Au is solid. My guess is that people will see some very nice returns for awhile I think.
RichKid
5th-September-2004, 06:06 PM
Gold is on the retreat again but the bottoms are getting higher and higher. It should really start to test those resistance levels above USD400 in the next few months. (currently looking to break below 400).
Anyone out there still very bullish on gold? I'm hoping to get leverage via some of the smaller gold stocks.
RichKid
Anyone out there still very bullish on gold? I'm hoping to get leverage via some of the smaller gold stocks.
RichKid
RichKid
9th-September-2004, 01:41 PM
Link to Kitco 24H Gold chart. Currently trying to breach 400 after a sharp rise following Greenspan's higher US interest rates statement:
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
RichKid
http://www.kitco.com/charts/livegold.html
RichKid
RichKid
1st-October-2004, 03:02 PM
Nudging towards $420 but it looks like it'll retreat again instead of breaking past $430. Mainly going up on oil price spike IMO. Technically I'm still with the bulls for a breach of $430 late this year or early next year- but you never know what might happen before that.
Currently at about $419.
The second chart (1975-2004) shows why I'm bullish on Gold, note the congestion around 400.
Currently at about $419.
The second chart (1975-2004) shows why I'm bullish on Gold, note the congestion around 400.
RichKid
10th-October-2004, 11:16 PM
Is anyone going to add to this thread or do we have to wait till the oil spike blows over?!! ; )
No point getting into gold once all the gains have been made. Some of the golds stocks are reviving already.
Gold is attempting to get at this year's high again, currently at 422.
No point getting into gold once all the gains have been made. Some of the golds stocks are reviving already.
Gold is attempting to get at this year's high again, currently at 422.
wayneL
11th-October-2004, 05:56 PM
Well I'll chuck my iron in the fire then Rich :)
Happens to be at an interesting point.
Looking at the chart, it has been in this channel since the May low...and Fridays action just touched the upsloping resistance line (depending on where you draw it)
So I'm betting on a retracement from this point before further upward moves. Gold has been liking the 61.8% retracement since the low, so that would indicate about 408. The bottom of the channel would be around 405-6.
Of course it could bounce from any level above that which would be VERY bullish IMO.
Now that I've said all that there is a high probability that Gold will completely ignore my retracement scenario altogether and continue straight up and wreck my neatly contructed channel lines!! LOL
Cheers
Happens to be at an interesting point.
Looking at the chart, it has been in this channel since the May low...and Fridays action just touched the upsloping resistance line (depending on where you draw it)
So I'm betting on a retracement from this point before further upward moves. Gold has been liking the 61.8% retracement since the low, so that would indicate about 408. The bottom of the channel would be around 405-6.
Of course it could bounce from any level above that which would be VERY bullish IMO.
Now that I've said all that there is a high probability that Gold will completely ignore my retracement scenario altogether and continue straight up and wreck my neatly contructed channel lines!! LOL
Cheers
still_in_school
11th-October-2004, 06:09 PM
Hi Waynel,
Last friday, sold off all my gold positions, not due to any real technical reason, but due to seasonal change... my main real concern is that, for the last 23 years (except for last year) Gold, has always fallen from higher highs, after the first few weeks of October and some February Months, after some very nice appreciation,
though i could be wrong for this year, i've noticed already in some gold stocks, a slight selling off last friday afternoon... yet with today's market rally (its seems, my precious words have turned on me)
though if gold, does go heading south, other attractive commodities such as nickel, copper and silver, are looking attractive.
Cheers,
sis
Last friday, sold off all my gold positions, not due to any real technical reason, but due to seasonal change... my main real concern is that, for the last 23 years (except for last year) Gold, has always fallen from higher highs, after the first few weeks of October and some February Months, after some very nice appreciation,
though i could be wrong for this year, i've noticed already in some gold stocks, a slight selling off last friday afternoon... yet with today's market rally (its seems, my precious words have turned on me)
though if gold, does go heading south, other attractive commodities such as nickel, copper and silver, are looking attractive.
Cheers,
sis
RichKid
11th-October-2004, 10:02 PM
Thanks a million folks for contributing to one of my pet topics!!
Gold is currently tickling 421 so it has retreated from the weekend high.
Thanks Wayne for the great chart, I'm a beginner at TA so I just use the free charts and I'm unable to show trend lines or detail so you've done a great job.
My personal view (from the charts I posted earlier) is that this attempt at piercing the next longterm resistance line (since about 1990 from memory), being the fourth upswing so far this year, will see another retreat towards 400 (to or through the boundary you show on your channel support). Without the oil spike gold would have struggled to come this far so soon.
BTW, if oil would retreat obediently this week (before attacking $60 again) then gold could retreat with it (this is just my guess) and then gold can regain the attack on the resistance afresh. I'm trying to work out a timespan by the length and duration of each go at the $430 mark (or thereabouts). The higher tops and higher bottoms are ominous for the 'gold bears'. I expect gold to go to at least $500 in the next year or two, going by the charts.
Of course all I say above could be wrong but $430 will fall sooner rather than later IMHO. Oil is high, the US economy is running into trouble and Iraq isn't getting any easier and terrorist attacks are less likely to decrease than increase. only odd thing is that the US$ to my mind is going south, that appears to lower the US$ price of gold but I've heard analysts say that they aren't as closely related as they used to be. Think I'll get some charts at somestage and compare gold to the US$ over time...
I'm only just getting the hang of TA so I can't really understand fibonacci and gann patterns but I hope to get my head around it at some stage.
BTW, do you subscribe to TradingTutors (free) Wayne? If nothing else you'll find it interesting (they use Gann methodology- David Bowden's mob) and show a lot of trades using swing charts, and they also look at US stocks. Bowden's products were too complicated and expensive for me so I just stick to basics.
Gold is currently tickling 421 so it has retreated from the weekend high.
Thanks Wayne for the great chart, I'm a beginner at TA so I just use the free charts and I'm unable to show trend lines or detail so you've done a great job.
My personal view (from the charts I posted earlier) is that this attempt at piercing the next longterm resistance line (since about 1990 from memory), being the fourth upswing so far this year, will see another retreat towards 400 (to or through the boundary you show on your channel support). Without the oil spike gold would have struggled to come this far so soon.
BTW, if oil would retreat obediently this week (before attacking $60 again) then gold could retreat with it (this is just my guess) and then gold can regain the attack on the resistance afresh. I'm trying to work out a timespan by the length and duration of each go at the $430 mark (or thereabouts). The higher tops and higher bottoms are ominous for the 'gold bears'. I expect gold to go to at least $500 in the next year or two, going by the charts.
Of course all I say above could be wrong but $430 will fall sooner rather than later IMHO. Oil is high, the US economy is running into trouble and Iraq isn't getting any easier and terrorist attacks are less likely to decrease than increase. only odd thing is that the US$ to my mind is going south, that appears to lower the US$ price of gold but I've heard analysts say that they aren't as closely related as they used to be. Think I'll get some charts at somestage and compare gold to the US$ over time...
I'm only just getting the hang of TA so I can't really understand fibonacci and gann patterns but I hope to get my head around it at some stage.
BTW, do you subscribe to TradingTutors (free) Wayne? If nothing else you'll find it interesting (they use Gann methodology- David Bowden's mob) and show a lot of trades using swing charts, and they also look at US stocks. Bowden's products were too complicated and expensive for me so I just stick to basics.
wayneL
13th-October-2004, 04:04 AM
Hi Waynel,
Last friday, sold off all my gold positions, not due to any real technical reason, but due to seasonal change... my main real concern is that, for the last 23 years (except for last year) Gold, has always fallen from higher highs, after the first few weeks of October and some February Months, after some very nice appreciation,
though i could be wrong for this year, i've noticed already in some gold stocks, a slight selling off last friday afternoon... yet with today's market rally (its seems, my precious words have turned on me)
though if gold, does go heading south, other attractive commodities such as nickel, copper and silver, are looking attractive.
Cheers,
sis
One of the advantages of playing futures SIS, is the ease of short the SOB!
Gold having a big selloff tonight...been down to 414.something...just as I had hoped it would Mwahahahaha.
But you are right! other metals are going great. Particularly copper! (one of the commodities I trade) from 85c to 145c per/lb in the last 12 months...but being sold off tonight along with gold and silver.
Cheers
Last friday, sold off all my gold positions, not due to any real technical reason, but due to seasonal change... my main real concern is that, for the last 23 years (except for last year) Gold, has always fallen from higher highs, after the first few weeks of October and some February Months, after some very nice appreciation,
though i could be wrong for this year, i've noticed already in some gold stocks, a slight selling off last friday afternoon... yet with today's market rally (its seems, my precious words have turned on me)
though if gold, does go heading south, other attractive commodities such as nickel, copper and silver, are looking attractive.
Cheers,
sis
One of the advantages of playing futures SIS, is the ease of short the SOB!
Gold having a big selloff tonight...been down to 414.something...just as I had hoped it would Mwahahahaha.
But you are right! other metals are going great. Particularly copper! (one of the commodities I trade) from 85c to 145c per/lb in the last 12 months...but being sold off tonight along with gold and silver.
Cheers
wayneL
13th-October-2004, 04:32 AM
Thanks a million folks for contributing to one of my pet topics!!
Gold is currently tickling 421 so it has retreated from the weekend high.
Thanks Wayne for the great chart, I'm a beginner at TA so I just use the free charts and I'm unable to show trend lines or detail so you've done a great job.
My personal view (from the charts I posted earlier) is that this attempt at piercing the next longterm resistance line (since about 1990 from memory), being the fourth upswing so far this year, will see another retreat towards 400 (to or through the boundary you show on your channel support). Without the oil spike gold would have struggled to come this far so soon.
BTW, if oil would retreat obediently this week (before attacking $60 again) then gold could retreat with it (this is just my guess) and then gold can regain the attack on the resistance afresh. I'm trying to work out a timespan by the length and duration of each go at the $430 mark (or thereabouts). The higher tops and higher bottoms are ominous for the 'gold bears'. I expect gold to go to at least $500 in the next year or two, going by the charts.
Of course all I say above could be wrong but $430 will fall sooner rather than later IMHO. Oil is high, the US economy is running into trouble and Iraq isn't getting any easier and terrorist attacks are less likely to decrease than increase. only odd thing is that the US$ to my mind is going south, that appears to lower the US$ price of gold but I've heard analysts say that they aren't as closely related as they used to be. Think I'll get some charts at somestage and compare gold to the US$ over time...
I'm only just getting the hang of TA so I can't really understand fibonacci and gann patterns but I hope to get my head around it at some stage.
BTW, do you subscribe to TradingTutors (free) Wayne? If nothing else you'll find it interesting (they use Gann methodology- David Bowden's mob) and show a lot of trades using swing charts, and they also look at US stocks. Bowden's products were too complicated and expensive for me so I just stick to basics.
Thats a pretty workable analysis Rich. The tough thing about gold is this question: Is it true currency, or just another bloody commodity? I wouldn't have a clue. But I'm getting more and more convinced that the Krugerands my old man gave me aren't a bad thing...may even add to them.
As far as Gann and Fibonacci. I see these as two independant analyses.
Gann I don't have much time for. I've never seen anyone trade it successfully real time with any advantage over anyone else. It still comes back to successful moneymanagement more than anything. So why spend big bucks on a complicated style of analysis when you can learn simple momentum techniques for free, and get similar (I think better) results?
Fibonacci works because everybody is looking at the same levels...a self fulfilling prophecy to some extent. The only tricky part is guessing at which level the herd is going to tun at.
I very much like the KISS principle when trading. And that was probably the toughest thing for me to learn...complicated is not better.
When I look at my trading method, it is almost embarresingly simple. And I listen to no one when I trade. No newsletters, websites, mates...no one!
But you have to learn stuff, so in the beginning you have to listen to somebody and therein lies the trap. Most people doing the teaching aren't traders.....otherwise they would be trading not teaching.
Cheers
Gold is currently tickling 421 so it has retreated from the weekend high.
Thanks Wayne for the great chart, I'm a beginner at TA so I just use the free charts and I'm unable to show trend lines or detail so you've done a great job.
My personal view (from the charts I posted earlier) is that this attempt at piercing the next longterm resistance line (since about 1990 from memory), being the fourth upswing so far this year, will see another retreat towards 400 (to or through the boundary you show on your channel support). Without the oil spike gold would have struggled to come this far so soon.
BTW, if oil would retreat obediently this week (before attacking $60 again) then gold could retreat with it (this is just my guess) and then gold can regain the attack on the resistance afresh. I'm trying to work out a timespan by the length and duration of each go at the $430 mark (or thereabouts). The higher tops and higher bottoms are ominous for the 'gold bears'. I expect gold to go to at least $500 in the next year or two, going by the charts.
Of course all I say above could be wrong but $430 will fall sooner rather than later IMHO. Oil is high, the US economy is running into trouble and Iraq isn't getting any easier and terrorist attacks are less likely to decrease than increase. only odd thing is that the US$ to my mind is going south, that appears to lower the US$ price of gold but I've heard analysts say that they aren't as closely related as they used to be. Think I'll get some charts at somestage and compare gold to the US$ over time...
I'm only just getting the hang of TA so I can't really understand fibonacci and gann patterns but I hope to get my head around it at some stage.
BTW, do you subscribe to TradingTutors (free) Wayne? If nothing else you'll find it interesting (they use Gann methodology- David Bowden's mob) and show a lot of trades using swing charts, and they also look at US stocks. Bowden's products were too complicated and expensive for me so I just stick to basics.
Thats a pretty workable analysis Rich. The tough thing about gold is this question: Is it true currency, or just another bloody commodity? I wouldn't have a clue. But I'm getting more and more convinced that the Krugerands my old man gave me aren't a bad thing...may even add to them.
As far as Gann and Fibonacci. I see these as two independant analyses.
Gann I don't have much time for. I've never seen anyone trade it successfully real time with any advantage over anyone else. It still comes back to successful moneymanagement more than anything. So why spend big bucks on a complicated style of analysis when you can learn simple momentum techniques for free, and get similar (I think better) results?
Fibonacci works because everybody is looking at the same levels...a self fulfilling prophecy to some extent. The only tricky part is guessing at which level the herd is going to tun at.
I very much like the KISS principle when trading. And that was probably the toughest thing for me to learn...complicated is not better.
When I look at my trading method, it is almost embarresingly simple. And I listen to no one when I trade. No newsletters, websites, mates...no one!
But you have to learn stuff, so in the beginning you have to listen to somebody and therein lies the trap. Most people doing the teaching aren't traders.....otherwise they would be trading not teaching.
Cheers
RichKid
14th-October-2004, 10:45 PM
But I'm getting more and more convinced that the Krugerands my old man gave me aren't a bad thing...may even add to them.
So why spend big bucks on a complicated style of analysis when you can learn simple momentum techniques for free, and get similar (I think better) results?
Fibonacci works because everybody is looking at the same levels...a self fulfilling prophecy to some extent. The only tricky part is guessing at which level the herd is going to tun at.
I very much like the KISS principle when trading. And that was probably the toughest thing for me to learn...complicated is not better.
When I look at my trading method, it is almost embarresingly simple. And I listen to no one when I trade. No newsletters, websites, mates...no one!
But you have to learn stuff, so in the beginning you have to listen to somebody and therein lies the trap. Most people doing the teaching aren't traders.....otherwise they would be trading not teaching.
Cheers
WWW- Wise Words Wayne!
Do you know why I mentioned Gann? Because the levels on your charts looked like what I'd seen in that Bowden newsletter- just check it out for curiosity if you like, it looked like it had the types of levels you use.
But I agree with your KISS principle, less stress too when things aren't complicated.
As I'm starting out I have open ears while trying to work out a proper system of my own based around TA and good money management skills in general. Hope it turns out to be as simple as yours!
Did you know of any Fibonacci books that you can recommend?
Have you seen what GLI (GoldLink IncomePlus) do?- they make money out of gold price fluctuations, on lease rates I think. It's more of an income stock so I don't invest in it but I just might put a bit away in it later. I found it through this portal, lots of good info on Gold including proper reports, but obviously it's biased in favour of gold as an investment http://www.australiangoldinvestment.com
So why spend big bucks on a complicated style of analysis when you can learn simple momentum techniques for free, and get similar (I think better) results?
Fibonacci works because everybody is looking at the same levels...a self fulfilling prophecy to some extent. The only tricky part is guessing at which level the herd is going to tun at.
I very much like the KISS principle when trading. And that was probably the toughest thing for me to learn...complicated is not better.
When I look at my trading method, it is almost embarresingly simple. And I listen to no one when I trade. No newsletters, websites, mates...no one!
But you have to learn stuff, so in the beginning you have to listen to somebody and therein lies the trap. Most people doing the teaching aren't traders.....otherwise they would be trading not teaching.
Cheers
WWW- Wise Words Wayne!
Do you know why I mentioned Gann? Because the levels on your charts looked like what I'd seen in that Bowden newsletter- just check it out for curiosity if you like, it looked like it had the types of levels you use.
But I agree with your KISS principle, less stress too when things aren't complicated.
As I'm starting out I have open ears while trying to work out a proper system of my own based around TA and good money management skills in general. Hope it turns out to be as simple as yours!
Did you know of any Fibonacci books that you can recommend?
Have you seen what GLI (GoldLink IncomePlus) do?- they make money out of gold price fluctuations, on lease rates I think. It's more of an income stock so I don't invest in it but I just might put a bit away in it later. I found it through this portal, lots of good info on Gold including proper reports, but obviously it's biased in favour of gold as an investment http://www.australiangoldinvestment.com
RichKid
15th-October-2004, 10:16 AM
Wonder if this recent pattern is turning out to be a head and shoulders reversal? My guess is it is. Or maybe a double top.
We'll know next week!
We'll know next week!
wayneL
21st-October-2004, 03:31 AM
There have long been suspicions of gold market manipulation, here is some grist for the mill.
http://www.enthios.com/notfreenotfair_letter.pdf
Note: It's 71 pages.
Cheers
http://www.enthios.com/notfreenotfair_letter.pdf
Note: It's 71 pages.
Cheers
RichKid
30th-October-2004, 11:30 PM
Looks like Gold is range trading again- keeps hitting $430. With the US$ looking doomed I have a feeling it'll go through before long. BUT a lot of profit taking by speculators as it approaches $430. Only difference is the range has tightened, no more falls to below $400 like earlier in the year.
Gold 100 oz. (GC, COMEX)
Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Dec., 2004
Gold 100 oz. (GC, COMEX)
Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Dec., 2004
RichKid
23rd-November-2004, 12:50 AM
Looks like that longterm resistance at about $430 is now going to be solid support. US dollar not looking good either so the stronger the Euro gets the higher the gold price.
RichKid
12th-December-2004, 01:04 PM
Gold has jumped and fallen since the last chart (above). Currently about 437, IMO it's mainly a US dollar story (ie stronger USD, weaker USD gold price) but the oil price drop has also helped claw back the gold price. Interesting to see if it breaks below about $430 as that price level provided strong resistance for a long time. I don't expect the US dollar to go up for much longer, especially with the US not that worried about it's decline.
USD- General view is that traders were covering short position in the USD. USD chart still looks bearish.
Any views? Or maybe we should give this a week to settle before commenting further.
USD- General view is that traders were covering short position in the USD. USD chart still looks bearish.
Any views? Or maybe we should give this a week to settle before commenting further.
wayneL
8th-January-2005, 07:49 AM
Interesting, if not amusing article about POG-
"Just to cover this year's foreign trade deficit of $600 billion would require $2,294 gold," he says. One lousy year's trade deficit! I have to laugh to keep from crying, although I end up doing both, and it must have looked pretty weird, because Mr. Casey actually turned away from me in disgust. He addressed the rest of the crowd and concluded his remarks about the trade deficit with, "And that's not the accumulated deficit, or those that may be run in the future." So it just keeps getting better and better! Finally, and I am all out of breath with excitement, he says, "If gold were simply to return to its 1980 high, it would be close to $2,000 in today's dollars - and the situation is much more serious now that it was in 1980."
It should be worth $2,000 today? If the telephone were ringing right now, it would probably be you, calling me up, and asking "Hey! Mogambo! Did you know you were an idiot?" and I would say "Yes" and then you would want to know "Why isn't gold selling for $2,000 today?" And that, my little grasshopper, is the big question that GATA wants answered, because it looks like the whole thing is being manipulated, and if there is one sure-fire lesson about manipulations, they never last. And that means that, one day, gold WILL rise to its true value. And then we will see how accurate Mr. Casey is! If we can stop dancing for joy, that is.
http://kitco.com/ind/Daughty/jan0502005.html
"Just to cover this year's foreign trade deficit of $600 billion would require $2,294 gold," he says. One lousy year's trade deficit! I have to laugh to keep from crying, although I end up doing both, and it must have looked pretty weird, because Mr. Casey actually turned away from me in disgust. He addressed the rest of the crowd and concluded his remarks about the trade deficit with, "And that's not the accumulated deficit, or those that may be run in the future." So it just keeps getting better and better! Finally, and I am all out of breath with excitement, he says, "If gold were simply to return to its 1980 high, it would be close to $2,000 in today's dollars - and the situation is much more serious now that it was in 1980."
It should be worth $2,000 today? If the telephone were ringing right now, it would probably be you, calling me up, and asking "Hey! Mogambo! Did you know you were an idiot?" and I would say "Yes" and then you would want to know "Why isn't gold selling for $2,000 today?" And that, my little grasshopper, is the big question that GATA wants answered, because it looks like the whole thing is being manipulated, and if there is one sure-fire lesson about manipulations, they never last. And that means that, one day, gold WILL rise to its true value. And then we will see how accurate Mr. Casey is! If we can stop dancing for joy, that is.
http://kitco.com/ind/Daughty/jan0502005.html
RichKid
8th-January-2005, 12:39 PM
Yes, interesting!! On a technical note Gold is flirting with falling below that long term resistance level, mainly driven by us dollar's recent fall imo. I wont be surprised if it falls below 420 and ranges about before breaking 500 sometime next year. It seems to go in little runs and then big ones like last year last big run. Oil and more instability will help gold too.
markrmau
9th-January-2005, 04:44 AM
I think BGF is undervalued at the moment. However gold seems to be gapping down. Do your own research etc.
RichKid
9th-February-2005, 10:44 PM
Well, Gold has fallen through some key levels. Heading south alright, let's see how long it takes to stabilise and turnaround. Recent rumour about IMF selling (or about to sell) some gold to help out tsunami hit countries didn't help price. But US dollar may resume fall again and even things out. Might be some bargains soon in local gold stocks that are highly leveraged to the gold price.
brerwallabi
9th-February-2005, 11:02 PM
Rich, imo $450 is back on the cards, expected the drop could fall further, i am looking for an entry on Lihir and will watch carefully, LHG might fall back to low 90's and when gold heads north again so will Lihir. There are a few things spooking gold atm, IMF is one but won't amount to much, expect US$ to be in the doldrums, but don't forget the Euro and its impact in gold.
markrmau
10th-February-2005, 12:42 PM
You heard it here first: Gold reversal on the cards.
Maybe a little early to call, and may be the low volume on some of these contracts is giving rubbish results.
Maybe a little early to call, and may be the low volume on some of these contracts is giving rubbish results.
RichKid
11th-February-2005, 02:42 PM
Rich, imo $450 is back on the cards, expected the drop could fall further, i am looking for an entry on Lihir and will watch carefully, LHG might fall back to low 90's and when gold heads north again so will Lihir. There are a few things spooking gold atm, IMF is one but won't amount to much, expect US$ to be in the doldrums, but don't forget the Euro and its impact in gold.
Agree with you and Markmau's chart (approaching a congestion zone below 420), down for now but will be up again to test $450 plus imo. Short term my energies will be in seeing when this bottoms out and starts reversing, gold still too high unless US$ weakens again. LHG does move well re the gold price but I prefer OXR, I suppose we can fine tune our entries once it goes lower. Won't be surprised if it heads much closer to $400, when gold moves it MOVES!
Agree with you and Markmau's chart (approaching a congestion zone below 420), down for now but will be up again to test $450 plus imo. Short term my energies will be in seeing when this bottoms out and starts reversing, gold still too high unless US$ weakens again. LHG does move well re the gold price but I prefer OXR, I suppose we can fine tune our entries once it goes lower. Won't be surprised if it heads much closer to $400, when gold moves it MOVES!
Cosmos
12th-February-2005, 08:54 PM
I am not a fan of gold nor do I bother following it much or trade it directly, but one thing that does show that gold is significantly weak atm is the fact that the USD has been heavily sold off and only come off the bottom slightly taking into account its fall, however gold went up and has now come all the way back again without the USD advancing far.
Question is, what’s going to happen when conditions are not favourable for gold??
Question is, what’s going to happen when conditions are not favourable for gold??
markrmau
13th-February-2005, 04:55 AM
Question is, what’s going to happen when conditions are not favourable for gold??
We'll all sell our gold shares;)
I'm not so big on LHG either RK. I have just read too many comments about how the SP should only be 80-90c, and that they have a large hedgebook liability (though hedging of course is sound buisness practice). Arguably however, the POG is built into BGF and NCM already, and perhaps not so much into LHG. OXR looks good to me as well because of the additional copper play.
We'll all sell our gold shares;)
I'm not so big on LHG either RK. I have just read too many comments about how the SP should only be 80-90c, and that they have a large hedgebook liability (though hedging of course is sound buisness practice). Arguably however, the POG is built into BGF and NCM already, and perhaps not so much into LHG. OXR looks good to me as well because of the additional copper play.
brerwallabi
13th-February-2005, 09:03 AM
Well its over $420 and the US dollars little recovery is looking very fragile, I dont suggest anybody should hold LHG, but if you get Lihir right its worth it, its not one for the nervous or unexperienced, my track record on LIhir has been average 2 wins to every loss in 2004 over 19 trades. If gold goes on a little run so will LHG (picked up Friday) and a $1.21 looks good to me initially. Be careful.
brerwallabi
13th-February-2005, 09:41 AM
Just some goldies I am holding atm
NMC
BMO
OXR
who warrant some investigation i think,
NMC due goldpour May,SED trying to buy out will fail, shares are trading between 5.7 to 6.0cps range, maybe a little fall back when SED bid fails, mid teens is mine own expectation.
BMO another near producer looks safe to me (all australian like NMC) just fallen below 30cps will test high 30's again soon.
OXR, dont need to say anything here
CMX not holding just sold, looking to reenter.
NMC
BMO
OXR
who warrant some investigation i think,
NMC due goldpour May,SED trying to buy out will fail, shares are trading between 5.7 to 6.0cps range, maybe a little fall back when SED bid fails, mid teens is mine own expectation.
BMO another near producer looks safe to me (all australian like NMC) just fallen below 30cps will test high 30's again soon.
OXR, dont need to say anything here
CMX not holding just sold, looking to reenter.
JetDollars
14th-February-2005, 08:14 AM
I have been holding LHG for a while now for covered calls, must admit that I haven't making any money for it since.
I am trading this stock a lot without successful and still have many position open.
I still believe LHG able to bounce back to $1.18, but there is a huge resistance at $1.11.
Very interesting to watch LHG this week.
I am trading this stock a lot without successful and still have many position open.
I still believe LHG able to bounce back to $1.18, but there is a huge resistance at $1.11.
Very interesting to watch LHG this week.
brerwallabi
14th-February-2005, 11:20 PM
Gold edging up right now 11.18pm 14/02/05, hope you find this interesting.
Gold investors should realize that Central Bank and IMF gold sales are already factored in and discounted by the gold market and have been for the last 40 years. This has been a constant and long-term discount and it has always been in the market. If all the official gold were not in the hands of these government institutions gold would most likely already be trading at over $750 an ounce.
The government of South Africa will not allow in the world of public opinion their most important industry to be once again rocked by any gold sales or “dumping” for political reason that would upset the price of gold, especially with the Rand so strong.
Black Empowerment Groups in South Africa which now own billions of dollars worth of gold mining assets will not sit around while a few European bureaucrats attempt to try and destroy their piece of the South African pie that they have been fighting for and struggling to attain for over a century. This group will rally a huge support base of international conservatives and liberals to their cause against the latest IMF scheme.
Politically in the U.S., the IMF would have tremendous opposition from both Democrats and Republicans in both the House and the Senate. For starters, here are just a few of the opponents who have voted against gold sales in the past and have expressed very strong opposition to any IMF gold sales. The bankers would have to run over this group to get the U.S. Congress, which has voting control over any and all IMF voting. The U.S. controls 17% of the voting rights of the IMF Charter and 85% is needed to sell any gold, therefore the U.S. controls this issue. Below are just a few of the opponents to the idea.
Senator Harry Reid (D – Nevada) already has voted against past sales and he is now Minority Whip, one of the most powerful positions in the U.S. Government.
Senator Tim Johnson (D- S. Dakota) ranking member of the Financial Institutions sub-committee of the Senate Banking Committee.
Congressman Tom Delay (R- Texas) House Majority Leader the second most powerful legislator in the House.
Congressman Jim Saxton (R- New Jersey) Chairman of the powerful House Armed Services Committee and ex-Vice Chairman of the Joint Economic Committee. One of the most powerful elected officials in D.C.
Congressman Ron Paul (R – Texas) Vice Chairman of the Oversight and Investigations sub-committee on Financial Services, past sponsor of the Gold Coin Act of 1984, which passed by one of the widest margin of any monetary bill.
These men and many others have plenty of distrust for paper money schemes and understand that gold is an important monetary and reserve asset and should not be used to pay off bad loans made by the bureaucrats at the IMF.
The issue of helping poor third world countries to get debt relief could easily be accomplished by revaluing the gold held by the IMF (103.4 million ounces) and using the new value, a $42 billion asset, to balance the complete write off of the poor country loans. The IMF balance sheet would not feel the write off at all. Since many of these loans were quasi grants in the first place there would be no need to sell any gold. The money has already, in essence, been written off.
Some gold could be sold off-market directly to central banks. This was proposed by IMF deputy director Alassane Ouattara in 1999 but was quickly denounced by the IMF, as it would create a big headache for the banking establishment. This action would have opened up a philosophical can of worms. The perception of official recognition and validation that gold is a valuable reserve asset from some of the central bankers (those buying) and the opposite from the selling group (the IMF). Also the action of a central bank somewhere printing a few billion dollars worth of their currency and taking the gold would create a field day for the few dozen of the more or less rogue member countries of the IMF who would enjoy exchanging some paper and ink for some real money.
The poor countries in question that are referred to as HIPC’s (heavily indebted poor countries) owe about $11 billion to the IMF. At current prices this would amount to about 889 tonnes of gold. If this debt relief was to actually be accomplished by selling the gold it could surely take place over a 5 year period or about 175 tonnes per year that would equal 4% of the current annual global supply of gold.
It could have an effect on the price as supply is supply, but the gold would be surely snapped up by the bullion banks and mining companies that are “short” somewhere between 10,000 and 12,000 tonnes according to some very savvy analysts such as Frank Veneroso, John Embry and others.
The IMF can actually write off almost all the poor country debt right now because they have large loan loss reserves already set up. According to Professor Jeffrey Sachs, in 1999 the IMF had in the Reserve Account (General Department) $2.9 billion set aside, and in the ESAF (Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility) Trust Fund another $2.8 billion plus 30 % of all money owed to this Facility was actually grants so that would add another $1.5 billion. That would total about $7.2 billion and is probably much higher today. This could be used for the debt relief.
Special Drawing Rights (SDR’s) were a monetary creation by the IMF to handle trade imbalances after WW II. This quasi-money allowed countries to manage temporary international trade liquidity problems with loans and credits to avoid the problems associated with maintaining fixed exchange rates at that time. Today the IMF has on its books 21.4 billion SDRs valued at about $1.50 each or $32.1 billion. Currently the IMF is attempting to double the SDR amount via a special amendment and has received the approval from 131 members out of 185 countries. The U.S. Congress must approve this new increase for this amendment to the IMF Charter to go into effect. If so, then the new SDR’s would add another $32.1 billion of funds to the IMF’s ****nal of paper money.
This so-called reserve asset would be available for future needs. Certainly a portion of this could be used for debt relief. The U.S. Congress will probably go along with this increase but it could be a trump card used by the Congressman and Senators to bargain against any possible IMF gold sales. This group will “sort of” have the moral high ground. “OK you need to print more money – fine - just don’t sell the gold”. As an aside, this doubling of the SDR quasi money reserve most likely means the bankers are worried about future international monetary problems. In that regard you would think they would want to hold on to as much gold as possible.
Since central banks can literally create as much money as they desire, it would be very easy for them to add funds via the IMF’s NAB facility. (New Arrangement to Borrow) This is a facility set up to allow the IMF to borrow money from certain member countries to handle any crises that may occur internationally. It has been used 10 times since 1962. The amount of money available and standing by if needed is about $51 billion. The IMF could easily change a few by-laws and tap into this system instead of selling gold.
The highest portion of the IMF gold is from the U.S. and belongs to the U.S. taxpayer. This argument is a powerful point to be made. It brings up the question of why should the U.S. taxpayer pay for all these bad loans made by a non-U.S. organization? One would think that if the loans were properly structured they would create wealth, aid in poverty reduction in these poor countries and be paid off. The fact that an abnormally large percentage of IMF loans did not work shows that assets from U.S. citizens should be used in more efficient ways. A Joint Economic Committee Study in 1999 stated that “ the central IMF budget is treated as a classified document and IMF finances are very difficult to evaluate because of the obscurity of IMF financial statements”. The U.S. Congress and the gentlemen mentioned above will surely have the upper hand in any hearings on this subject and they will use it to beat back the gold sales scheme.
IMF Gold was supposed to be used for foreign exchange stability in the past. Since the IMF is now a global lending institution and fixed exchange rates are no longer a responsibility of the IMF, it should not be selling gold assets to pay off bad loans. It should return the gold to member nations or at least use the gold as a reserve asset as it was meant to be. Maybe the IMF should actually be buying gold to shore up its balance sheet.
The political and social pressure on the U.S. Congress from citizens that own gold and gold mining companies as an investment will be very strong as we go forward. Since many times congressional elections are decided by only 500-1,000 votes in many districts, Congressmen do not upset apple carts that are bi-partisan and since gold is owned by liberals and conservatives, republicans and democrats the best possible and potent political force in America will be at work against the IMF gold sales…..and that force is unstoppable. The force is a coalition. When the right and left get together in this country on any issue it is all over but the shouting. Since the IMF gold sales will harm the pocketbooks of Democrats as well as Republicans, it would seem the IMF votes needed to sell gold will not happen.
Central bankers will most likely continue, as usual, to scare the price of gold down from time to time by statements of gold sales. But they are all too keenly aware of the growing number of people who realize that the gold not paper and ink is the real stable monetary element. They also realize that the gold market should not be manipulated when it effects the global mining industry (not just gold), dozens of poor countries that rely on mining for the livelihood of it’s people and tens of millions of retirement and investment accounts of ordinary people the world over.
Gold investors should realize that Central Bank and IMF gold sales are already factored in and discounted by the gold market and have been for the last 40 years. This has been a constant and long-term discount and it has always been in the market. If all the official gold were not in the hands of these government institutions gold would most likely already be trading at over $750 an ounce.
The government of South Africa will not allow in the world of public opinion their most important industry to be once again rocked by any gold sales or “dumping” for political reason that would upset the price of gold, especially with the Rand so strong.
Black Empowerment Groups in South Africa which now own billions of dollars worth of gold mining assets will not sit around while a few European bureaucrats attempt to try and destroy their piece of the South African pie that they have been fighting for and struggling to attain for over a century. This group will rally a huge support base of international conservatives and liberals to their cause against the latest IMF scheme.
Politically in the U.S., the IMF would have tremendous opposition from both Democrats and Republicans in both the House and the Senate. For starters, here are just a few of the opponents who have voted against gold sales in the past and have expressed very strong opposition to any IMF gold sales. The bankers would have to run over this group to get the U.S. Congress, which has voting control over any and all IMF voting. The U.S. controls 17% of the voting rights of the IMF Charter and 85% is needed to sell any gold, therefore the U.S. controls this issue. Below are just a few of the opponents to the idea.
Senator Harry Reid (D – Nevada) already has voted against past sales and he is now Minority Whip, one of the most powerful positions in the U.S. Government.
Senator Tim Johnson (D- S. Dakota) ranking member of the Financial Institutions sub-committee of the Senate Banking Committee.
Congressman Tom Delay (R- Texas) House Majority Leader the second most powerful legislator in the House.
Congressman Jim Saxton (R- New Jersey) Chairman of the powerful House Armed Services Committee and ex-Vice Chairman of the Joint Economic Committee. One of the most powerful elected officials in D.C.
Congressman Ron Paul (R – Texas) Vice Chairman of the Oversight and Investigations sub-committee on Financial Services, past sponsor of the Gold Coin Act of 1984, which passed by one of the widest margin of any monetary bill.
These men and many others have plenty of distrust for paper money schemes and understand that gold is an important monetary and reserve asset and should not be used to pay off bad loans made by the bureaucrats at the IMF.
The issue of helping poor third world countries to get debt relief could easily be accomplished by revaluing the gold held by the IMF (103.4 million ounces) and using the new value, a $42 billion asset, to balance the complete write off of the poor country loans. The IMF balance sheet would not feel the write off at all. Since many of these loans were quasi grants in the first place there would be no need to sell any gold. The money has already, in essence, been written off.
Some gold could be sold off-market directly to central banks. This was proposed by IMF deputy director Alassane Ouattara in 1999 but was quickly denounced by the IMF, as it would create a big headache for the banking establishment. This action would have opened up a philosophical can of worms. The perception of official recognition and validation that gold is a valuable reserve asset from some of the central bankers (those buying) and the opposite from the selling group (the IMF). Also the action of a central bank somewhere printing a few billion dollars worth of their currency and taking the gold would create a field day for the few dozen of the more or less rogue member countries of the IMF who would enjoy exchanging some paper and ink for some real money.
The poor countries in question that are referred to as HIPC’s (heavily indebted poor countries) owe about $11 billion to the IMF. At current prices this would amount to about 889 tonnes of gold. If this debt relief was to actually be accomplished by selling the gold it could surely take place over a 5 year period or about 175 tonnes per year that would equal 4% of the current annual global supply of gold.
It could have an effect on the price as supply is supply, but the gold would be surely snapped up by the bullion banks and mining companies that are “short” somewhere between 10,000 and 12,000 tonnes according to some very savvy analysts such as Frank Veneroso, John Embry and others.
The IMF can actually write off almost all the poor country debt right now because they have large loan loss reserves already set up. According to Professor Jeffrey Sachs, in 1999 the IMF had in the Reserve Account (General Department) $2.9 billion set aside, and in the ESAF (Enhanced Structural Adjustment Facility) Trust Fund another $2.8 billion plus 30 % of all money owed to this Facility was actually grants so that would add another $1.5 billion. That would total about $7.2 billion and is probably much higher today. This could be used for the debt relief.
Special Drawing Rights (SDR’s) were a monetary creation by the IMF to handle trade imbalances after WW II. This quasi-money allowed countries to manage temporary international trade liquidity problems with loans and credits to avoid the problems associated with maintaining fixed exchange rates at that time. Today the IMF has on its books 21.4 billion SDRs valued at about $1.50 each or $32.1 billion. Currently the IMF is attempting to double the SDR amount via a special amendment and has received the approval from 131 members out of 185 countries. The U.S. Congress must approve this new increase for this amendment to the IMF Charter to go into effect. If so, then the new SDR’s would add another $32.1 billion of funds to the IMF’s ****nal of paper money.
This so-called reserve asset would be available for future needs. Certainly a portion of this could be used for debt relief. The U.S. Congress will probably go along with this increase but it could be a trump card used by the Congressman and Senators to bargain against any possible IMF gold sales. This group will “sort of” have the moral high ground. “OK you need to print more money – fine - just don’t sell the gold”. As an aside, this doubling of the SDR quasi money reserve most likely means the bankers are worried about future international monetary problems. In that regard you would think they would want to hold on to as much gold as possible.
Since central banks can literally create as much money as they desire, it would be very easy for them to add funds via the IMF’s NAB facility. (New Arrangement to Borrow) This is a facility set up to allow the IMF to borrow money from certain member countries to handle any crises that may occur internationally. It has been used 10 times since 1962. The amount of money available and standing by if needed is about $51 billion. The IMF could easily change a few by-laws and tap into this system instead of selling gold.
The highest portion of the IMF gold is from the U.S. and belongs to the U.S. taxpayer. This argument is a powerful point to be made. It brings up the question of why should the U.S. taxpayer pay for all these bad loans made by a non-U.S. organization? One would think that if the loans were properly structured they would create wealth, aid in poverty reduction in these poor countries and be paid off. The fact that an abnormally large percentage of IMF loans did not work shows that assets from U.S. citizens should be used in more efficient ways. A Joint Economic Committee Study in 1999 stated that “ the central IMF budget is treated as a classified document and IMF finances are very difficult to evaluate because of the obscurity of IMF financial statements”. The U.S. Congress and the gentlemen mentioned above will surely have the upper hand in any hearings on this subject and they will use it to beat back the gold sales scheme.
IMF Gold was supposed to be used for foreign exchange stability in the past. Since the IMF is now a global lending institution and fixed exchange rates are no longer a responsibility of the IMF, it should not be selling gold assets to pay off bad loans. It should return the gold to member nations or at least use the gold as a reserve asset as it was meant to be. Maybe the IMF should actually be buying gold to shore up its balance sheet.
The political and social pressure on the U.S. Congress from citizens that own gold and gold mining companies as an investment will be very strong as we go forward. Since many times congressional elections are decided by only 500-1,000 votes in many districts, Congressmen do not upset apple carts that are bi-partisan and since gold is owned by liberals and conservatives, republicans and democrats the best possible and potent political force in America will be at work against the IMF gold sales…..and that force is unstoppable. The force is a coalition. When the right and left get together in this country on any issue it is all over but the shouting. Since the IMF gold sales will harm the pocketbooks of Democrats as well as Republicans, it would seem the IMF votes needed to sell gold will not happen.
Central bankers will most likely continue, as usual, to scare the price of gold down from time to time by statements of gold sales. But they are all too keenly aware of the growing number of people who realize that the gold not paper and ink is the real stable monetary element. They also realize that the gold market should not be manipulated when it effects the global mining industry (not just gold), dozens of poor countries that rely on mining for the livelihood of it’s people and tens of millions of retirement and investment accounts of ordinary people the world over.
markrmau
15th-February-2005, 05:16 AM
The poor countries in question that are referred to as HIPC’s (heavily indebted poor countries)
This made me laugh - remember TPLAC and HRRC?
This made me laugh - remember TPLAC and HRRC?
Bingo
19th-February-2005, 05:44 PM
Could anyone provide a graph of the price of gold for the last 5 years or tell me where I could find one. I would like it in in both $A and $US if possible.
Bingo
Bingo
brerwallabi
19th-February-2005, 07:52 PM
Bingo try this link it will give u current charts in both US & A dollars
www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html
Regards
brer
www.the-privateer.com/chart/twogold.html
Regards
brer
Bingo
24th-February-2005, 06:23 PM
brerwallabi,
Thank you for the link.
Bingo
Thank you for the link.
Bingo
DTM
24th-February-2005, 09:50 PM
I also sat through a presentation from two analysts regarding gold and oil. The gold analyst basically showed that production is slowing down due to gold mines in the US and South African mines being depleted (Australia is the other major producer), and new production centres in third world countries not being as rich. Also there are major concerns about infrastructure and politacal instability in those third world countries.
The oil analyst basically showed that US demand for oil was outstripping supply, and future projections showed a continuing widening of the demand and supply graph.
This could cause major problems for the US deficit which has been growing in proportion to the rise of Gold prices, and the falling US dollar.
The oil analyst basically showed that US demand for oil was outstripping supply, and future projections showed a continuing widening of the demand and supply graph.
This could cause major problems for the US deficit which has been growing in proportion to the rise of Gold prices, and the falling US dollar.
brerwallabi
24th-February-2005, 10:16 PM
February 23 (DowJones/MarketWatch) -- Comex April gold futures solidified their recent press higher Wednesday by confirming support at the $433-per-ounce level and ending the session above the $436 mark for the first time in 2005. April gold closed up 30 cents $436.10. The benchmark contract added 1.7 percent in Tuesday's dealings. In a bullish sign for the precious metal, gold held firm despite a modest recovery in the U.S. dollar. "A day of consolidation is by no means a bad thing with $428 to $432 now likely to be an area of support rather than resistance," said James Moore of TheBullionDesk.com. "The market simply needs to hold above $430.50 to keep the rally intact," market analyst Dale Doelling said...
GOLD is going heading to $450 and then beyond, and some of the little's will be doubling in price do some research quick and get on for some fast bucks,gold could well go $500 and beyond and the Aussie price will drag along with it, who thought that our market would break 4000 and head towards 4200, do some fast investigative work on gold and you might be suprised on how it is viewed, anyway thats enough raving from me
GOLD is going heading to $450 and then beyond, and some of the little's will be doubling in price do some research quick and get on for some fast bucks,gold could well go $500 and beyond and the Aussie price will drag along with it, who thought that our market would break 4000 and head towards 4200, do some fast investigative work on gold and you might be suprised on how it is viewed, anyway thats enough raving from me
brerwallabi
3rd-March-2005, 10:51 PM
Anybody got any thoughts on where the $US is heading, if you look at the recent decline of the US dollar from 7th Feb that is when gold headed north again. The IMF dump looks definately off and was never going happen anyway, so my view is the $450 could be tested again very soon, once it brakes through and when and if $450 becomes the new support, a few little Aussie explorers and near producers may have a lot of new interest, holding a couple big risers hopefully. If you dont have a junior goldie in your portfolio nows the time to get in. My opinion and not advice in any form.
roofus
3rd-March-2005, 11:25 PM
brerwallabi- Correct, I think youve got it in one.
RichKid
3rd-March-2005, 11:26 PM
Gold looks good, especially for unhedged local juniors with the Aussie stabilizing. I think it may spike again but then retreat, so a small opportunity there before retreats and really runs hard at 500 in the medium turn. Good to see it above 430, favours the bulls imo.
markrmau
15th-March-2005, 10:29 AM
I just read in afr.com that china has flagged it may "unexpectedly introduce policies to implement flexible exchange rate" - but article seems to have dissapeared (under textiles/flashing red light or something).
Go BSG/BGF/your favourite spec gold stock.
(though spot gold seems to be going south at the moment)
Go BSG/BGF/your favourite spec gold stock.
(though spot gold seems to be going south at the moment)
RichKid
21st-April-2005, 04:56 PM
Gold has had a small spurt recently, still generally up but threatening to retrace. Seems to have some correlation to oil, despite all the market turmoil recently it hasn't risen as much as you'd think for a safe haven commodity/currency. I expected a short term drop in oil based on the higher recent bottoms and the double top before another spurt but oil has risen a bit sooner than I anticipated so perhaps the same for gold? or another drop for gold before rising for the next oil spike?
bvbfan
25th-April-2005, 03:09 PM
At the moment I believe we are seeing an opportunity to add to or build up positions in the gold mining stocks here and also in the US
The current bull market in gold has seen rallies in the 2nd half of the year for the last 3 years and I believe we will see that continue and test $500 towards the end of the year
Duetsche Bank has suggested $525 this year as possible from some sources I've heard
Worth watching to add positions on any pullbacks over May and June
R/
bvb
The current bull market in gold has seen rallies in the 2nd half of the year for the last 3 years and I believe we will see that continue and test $500 towards the end of the year
Duetsche Bank has suggested $525 this year as possible from some sources I've heard
Worth watching to add positions on any pullbacks over May and June
R/
bvb
markrmau
27th-April-2005, 06:32 AM
http://www.futuresource.com/charts/micro.jsp?s=CL&s=GC&s=FXADUSMUL&s=DX&s=&s=&s=&s=&p=D&v=15&b=BAR&d=MEDIUM
Interesting. Gold seems to have gapped up, without a lot of weakness in US$/DX (though we may see more weakness today/tomorrow).
Also, copper had big fall in LME. Copper had been moving somewhat as a proxy for gold.
Interesting. Gold seems to have gapped up, without a lot of weakness in US$/DX (though we may see more weakness today/tomorrow).
Also, copper had big fall in LME. Copper had been moving somewhat as a proxy for gold.
MARKETWAVES
13th-May-2005, 11:17 AM
GOLD .... WHERE IT IS REALLY HEADED !
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOOK HERE ... LOOK HERE ////
SO MUCH TALK ABOUT GOLD ........ WELL ,THIS POST WILL CONTAIN 2 CHARTS LONGER TERM
HERE IS SOMETHING PROFOUND TO LOOK AT .....
IF YOU HAVE ANY UNDERSTANDING OF FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LINES THIS CHART WILL MAKE SENSE TO YOU .........
50 % RETRACEMENT REPRESENTS AN EQUILIBRIUM ....
WHAT IS THIS CHART TELLING ME ? IT SIMPLE.........
ALL THE EQUITY MARKETS IN THE WORLD ARE GOING TO HAVE A PROBLEM GOING FORWARD ........
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
LOOK HERE ... LOOK HERE ////
SO MUCH TALK ABOUT GOLD ........ WELL ,THIS POST WILL CONTAIN 2 CHARTS LONGER TERM
HERE IS SOMETHING PROFOUND TO LOOK AT .....
IF YOU HAVE ANY UNDERSTANDING OF FIBONACCI RETRACEMENT LINES THIS CHART WILL MAKE SENSE TO YOU .........
50 % RETRACEMENT REPRESENTS AN EQUILIBRIUM ....
WHAT IS THIS CHART TELLING ME ? IT SIMPLE.........
ALL THE EQUITY MARKETS IN THE WORLD ARE GOING TO HAVE A PROBLEM GOING FORWARD ........
DTM
13th-May-2005, 01:19 PM
Thanks for the charts MW. Thats a very good long term view of gold. I had a friend who told me four/five years ago that gold was the way to go. He had a whole garage full and left the Citibank energy derivatives desk to trade for someone in the top 200 rich list. This rich guy liquidated all his business assets (firing everyone) and entrusted my friend with it all.
Looking back, I wish I had taken his advice. :o
Oh, and he also said he could see gold reaching 1k per gm. :eek:
Looking back, I wish I had taken his advice. :o
Oh, and he also said he could see gold reaching 1k per gm. :eek:
RichKid
13th-May-2005, 11:50 PM
Judging from the chart and from comments I've heard from Comsec chartists the next bottom will be the high 300's ie around 380, but 400 will be stubborn.
So around 400 will be the stage to top up for the next rally imo. I'd wait for the countertrend reversal ie to bounce off support.
So around 400 will be the stage to top up for the next rally imo. I'd wait for the countertrend reversal ie to bounce off support.
appals
24th-May-2005, 07:40 AM
Price of gold at US$417 surely must be approaching it's low. Value of US$ has to drop as the US twin deficits start to bite. As the price of gold seems to be related to the value of the US$ it seems to me to be inevitable.
chicken
24th-May-2005, 01:59 PM
Maquarie ....today said gold will rally???....so its up.... :2twocents
Mofra
24th-May-2005, 10:06 PM
On the current softening in the price of gold,
Does anyone know if the French Reserve went ahead with their plan to sell 200 tonnes of gold? If so surely that would be having the influence on world markets we are seeing currently.
Personally I believe the gold price will soften however must not be far away from a bottom - reading about Greenspan calling the revaluation of the yuan an inevitability, surely this will effect the US$ and hence the price of gold
Does anyone know if the French Reserve went ahead with their plan to sell 200 tonnes of gold? If so surely that would be having the influence on world markets we are seeing currently.
Personally I believe the gold price will soften however must not be far away from a bottom - reading about Greenspan calling the revaluation of the yuan an inevitability, surely this will effect the US$ and hence the price of gold
reichstag911
25th-May-2005, 01:20 PM
Gold is definately topping / has topped and after extensive distribution will pullback to 375 and maybe 200 ish before taking off proper.
Mofra
25th-May-2005, 10:03 PM
reich,
US$200? Some would consider that an extremely bullish outlook on world finances & the US$ in particular. Just wondering is that a chart based view or on fundamentals?
US$200? Some would consider that an extremely bullish outlook on world finances & the US$ in particular. Just wondering is that a chart based view or on fundamentals?
brerwallabi
25th-May-2005, 10:40 PM
The US current account deficit will probably lead to a sharp drop in the dollar, OECD economists are predicting. They have actually modelled a 30% fall in the dollar's value against other currencies, it found such a drop would generate inflationary pressures that would likely be met with increases in interest rates.
Can anyone see this resulting in the coresponding increase in the POG, am I being over optimistic. The other impact of a dollar fall could be devasting for economies, also our Aussie residential property market and the sharemarket, looks to me like cash and gold could be looking good.
Can anyone see this resulting in the coresponding increase in the POG, am I being over optimistic. The other impact of a dollar fall could be devasting for economies, also our Aussie residential property market and the sharemarket, looks to me like cash and gold could be looking good.
Smurf1976
25th-May-2005, 11:09 PM
My view is that we have seen the bottom for the USD for quite a while. This is based on both charts and observed sentiment over the past 9 months or so which to me strongly suggests a bottom.
The US deficits have received a lot of attention but there are countries in a far worse position as far as their Current Account position is concerned. These are the ones whose currencies ought to be avoided. These countries are called "New Zealand" and, the worst one is called "Australia".
I am not holding or buying gold right now but if I was then I would either get physical or trade in a way that gains if gold rises in AUSTRALIAN Dollars. In contrast, those who have profited from gold in recent times have done so because it has risen in US Dollars. In Aussie Dollars it's gone basically nowhere. This will change if the USD has bottomed.
This is opinion not investment advice, do your own research etc. :)
The US deficits have received a lot of attention but there are countries in a far worse position as far as their Current Account position is concerned. These are the ones whose currencies ought to be avoided. These countries are called "New Zealand" and, the worst one is called "Australia".
I am not holding or buying gold right now but if I was then I would either get physical or trade in a way that gains if gold rises in AUSTRALIAN Dollars. In contrast, those who have profited from gold in recent times have done so because it has risen in US Dollars. In Aussie Dollars it's gone basically nowhere. This will change if the USD has bottomed.
This is opinion not investment advice, do your own research etc. :)
brerwallabi
25th-May-2005, 11:37 PM
If your right then $640 Aus POG surely is on the cards and that means very good news for a few junior goldies here.
reichstag911
29th-May-2005, 01:08 AM
reich,
US$200? Some would consider that an extremely bullish outlook on world finances & the US$ in particular. Just wondering is that a chart based view or on fundamentals?
All based on TA - i don't do funny-mentals.
I am NOT bullish on world finances: there will be an implosion at some stage - just don't know when...
I called the impending USD rally in Nov 04 and am still USD bullish.
Cheers.
US$200? Some would consider that an extremely bullish outlook on world finances & the US$ in particular. Just wondering is that a chart based view or on fundamentals?
All based on TA - i don't do funny-mentals.
I am NOT bullish on world finances: there will be an implosion at some stage - just don't know when...
I called the impending USD rally in Nov 04 and am still USD bullish.
Cheers.
reichstag911
29th-May-2005, 01:51 AM
The fact that this gold thread exists and is so popular is an excellent contrarian confirmation that gold has topped for the move.
Trust me.
Similar with China - being spread all over the mainstream media this year.
It will pullback.
CRB commodities index chart is topping this year it seems. Just waiting for confirmation.
The corrupt fascist junta have ramped the U.S. market nicely since the massive bear market that started in 2000 - and may continue to do so for a long time before it can't prop it up anymore.
But that might not happen til next decade.
The PPT is alive and well and should never be underestimated.
USA will be fighting for its survival after all.
It will lose to Chindia but hey that's life !
My long term U.S. charts indicate that the DOW will prolly break down BIG TIME around 2012-2014: MAJOR BEAR PARTY TIME.
IF it's a deflationary depression - everything may get pulled down with it including PM's.
Tasty bear-fest coming up for later this year to 06/07 : )
It's a big wave 4 down for Australia.
XJO topped in March 05 which i called in March 05...
(posted it at newsgroup)
Cheers.
Trust me.
Similar with China - being spread all over the mainstream media this year.
It will pullback.
CRB commodities index chart is topping this year it seems. Just waiting for confirmation.
The corrupt fascist junta have ramped the U.S. market nicely since the massive bear market that started in 2000 - and may continue to do so for a long time before it can't prop it up anymore.
But that might not happen til next decade.
The PPT is alive and well and should never be underestimated.
USA will be fighting for its survival after all.
It will lose to Chindia but hey that's life !
My long term U.S. charts indicate that the DOW will prolly break down BIG TIME around 2012-2014: MAJOR BEAR PARTY TIME.
IF it's a deflationary depression - everything may get pulled down with it including PM's.
Tasty bear-fest coming up for later this year to 06/07 : )
It's a big wave 4 down for Australia.
XJO topped in March 05 which i called in March 05...
(posted it at newsgroup)
Cheers.
Smurf1976
29th-May-2005, 12:53 PM
...The corrupt fascist junta have ramped the U.S. market nicely since the massive bear market that started in 2000 - and may continue to do so for a long time before it can't prop it up anymore.
But that might not happen til next decade.
The PPT is alive and well and should never be underestimated.
USA will be fighting for its survival after all.
It will lose to Chindia but hey that's life !
My long term U.S. charts indicate that the DOW will prolly break down BIG TIME around 2012-2014: MAJOR BEAR PARTY TIME.
IF it's a deflationary depression - everything may get pulled down with it including PM's.
Tasty bear-fest coming up for later this year to 06/07 : )
It's a big wave 4 down for Australia.
XJO topped in March 05 which i called in March 05...
(posted it at newsgroup)
Cheers.
So let me get this right... You are saying that the XJO is headed down big time and that the top was in March this year but that the US markets may be propped up by the PPT?
Based on that it would make sense to short the XJO and keep well away from the US markets.
I agree with your post overall, China and the CRB etc, but am not convinced about the US bit. If they were going to prop the markets then wouldn't they have done so during 2000-2002? I am aware of the PPT but just wondering why they would act so forcefully now when they didn't last time? :confused:
Timing - you mention 06/07 - would that be October 2006 low by any chance? Just going by what I have read elsewhere on this subject as they all seem to mention Oct 06 but then they are talking mostly about the US markets.
A lot of questions I know but it looks like you are the person to ask... :) :)
But that might not happen til next decade.
The PPT is alive and well and should never be underestimated.
USA will be fighting for its survival after all.
It will lose to Chindia but hey that's life !
My long term U.S. charts indicate that the DOW will prolly break down BIG TIME around 2012-2014: MAJOR BEAR PARTY TIME.
IF it's a deflationary depression - everything may get pulled down with it including PM's.
Tasty bear-fest coming up for later this year to 06/07 : )
It's a big wave 4 down for Australia.
XJO topped in March 05 which i called in March 05...
(posted it at newsgroup)
Cheers.
So let me get this right... You are saying that the XJO is headed down big time and that the top was in March this year but that the US markets may be propped up by the PPT?
Based on that it would make sense to short the XJO and keep well away from the US markets.
I agree with your post overall, China and the CRB etc, but am not convinced about the US bit. If they were going to prop the markets then wouldn't they have done so during 2000-2002? I am aware of the PPT but just wondering why they would act so forcefully now when they didn't last time? :confused:
Timing - you mention 06/07 - would that be October 2006 low by any chance? Just going by what I have read elsewhere on this subject as they all seem to mention Oct 06 but then they are talking mostly about the US markets.
A lot of questions I know but it looks like you are the person to ask... :) :)
brerwallabi
4th-June-2005, 12:36 PM
Is this the turnaround for gold now, starting to work its way back up, next week looks like the testing time, its being following oil closely lately so expect a big jump next week.
Could there be a gold boom?
Could there be a gold boom?
DTM
4th-June-2005, 02:53 PM
Is this the turnaround for gold now, starting to work its way back up, next week looks like the testing time, its being following oil closely lately so expect a big jump next week.
Could there be a gold boom?
Looking at the charts, my thoughts are that oil is carrying on its up trend. I expect it to keep on rising in the short to medium term, so outlook for gold is bullish with US and Australian markets bearish.
Just my two bobs worth... :2twocents
Could there be a gold boom?
Looking at the charts, my thoughts are that oil is carrying on its up trend. I expect it to keep on rising in the short to medium term, so outlook for gold is bullish with US and Australian markets bearish.
Just my two bobs worth... :2twocents
Profitseeker
5th-June-2005, 09:50 AM
Gold is on the retreat again but the bottoms are getting higher and higher. It should really start to test those resistance levels above USD400 in the next few months. (currently looking to break below 400).
Anyone out there still very bullish on gold? I'm hoping to get leverage via some of the smaller gold stocks.
RichKid
Very bullish. I am acquiring as many Gold stocks as I can. The big producers are not managing to renew their supplies of gold. Therefore in my books and according to the law of supply and demand 1) there will be further consolidation in the market 2) Gold prices will continue to go up 3) So will the price of gold shares.
Anyone out there still very bullish on gold? I'm hoping to get leverage via some of the smaller gold stocks.
RichKid
Very bullish. I am acquiring as many Gold stocks as I can. The big producers are not managing to renew their supplies of gold. Therefore in my books and according to the law of supply and demand 1) there will be further consolidation in the market 2) Gold prices will continue to go up 3) So will the price of gold shares.
Smurf1976
5th-June-2005, 12:46 PM
Bull markets tend to suffer a major setback at some point. For example the 1987 stock market crash or the gold plunge in the mid-1970's.
I have no hard evidence of it actually being in progress but looking at the general economic picture I do get the feeling that such a point may be upon us with the gold bull.
The credit boom seems to be slowing, housing is slowing or actually falling depending on location, bonds point towards a slowdown, US stocks are going nowhere. Just be careful.
:2twocents
I have no hard evidence of it actually being in progress but looking at the general economic picture I do get the feeling that such a point may be upon us with the gold bull.
The credit boom seems to be slowing, housing is slowing or actually falling depending on location, bonds point towards a slowdown, US stocks are going nowhere. Just be careful.
:2twocents
brerwallabi
5th-June-2005, 01:26 PM
Gold still has a huge and increasing demand coming from Asia, as China and India develop the demand for gold will not be able to be met, these cultures value gold highly and with the newly created wealth in these countries this demand will soar.The US dollar will fall eventually and possibly soon, interests rates up to and $500 US is definately going to happen, I have read some journalists and some so called analysts spruiking gold at possibly upto $1000.Hmmm
RichKid
12th-November-2005, 08:26 PM
Gold has experience high volatility recently. Will it head down again to retest the upper reaches of the triangle, or on to new highs? No view personally yet, although last week I thought it'd retrace further, consolidate and then rally to 500.
....Just attached a daily chart, downtrend channel in last few weeks, lower lows, lower highs (so far).
....Just attached a daily chart, downtrend channel in last few weeks, lower lows, lower highs (so far).
brerwallabi
12th-November-2005, 10:02 PM
Rich it seems currently to be heading north again, there are a few gold stocks that have fallen of late and this move might be a good sign for them. I hope this time it continues up to test $500 if it clears $475, its had a few cracks at this level recently to fall back, anything happening in the land of free this week that you know about that could drag it back?
RichKid
18th-November-2005, 02:13 AM
Well gold has surprised, testing the recent highs, Wayne had some great info on COT data and graphs, can't recall in which thread it was posted atm but you'll find it on his blog.
Here's the weekly chart, nice long channel, if this isn't a monster uptrend I don't know what is, could easily fall back to retest the trendline or could challenge the recent highs and get on with it, or could fall back to retest that triangle from a few months ago. Seems to be all pointing to circa 440 as a great entry point, if it falls to that level.
Did I say this already? I'm bullish (but not for short term trades imo, wait and see, interesting to see how the chart compares to the fundamentals and the COT data). No fib levels, sorry, don't have the tool.
Here's the weekly chart, nice long channel, if this isn't a monster uptrend I don't know what is, could easily fall back to retest the trendline or could challenge the recent highs and get on with it, or could fall back to retest that triangle from a few months ago. Seems to be all pointing to circa 440 as a great entry point, if it falls to that level.
Did I say this already? I'm bullish (but not for short term trades imo, wait and see, interesting to see how the chart compares to the fundamentals and the COT data). No fib levels, sorry, don't have the tool.
wayneL
18th-November-2005, 02:29 AM
Latest available COT data
Comm's are nett short, but coming off lows, seems a short signal has not come off. So must mean long! ;)
Comm's are nett short, but coming off lows, seems a short signal has not come off. So must mean long! ;)
RichKid
18th-November-2005, 02:34 AM
Latest available COT data
Comm's are nett short, but coming off lows, seems a short signal has not come off. So must mean long1 ;)
Hi Wayne,
Going by the COT data a quick pullback (back to about where that green line was recently) could see gold retest 440 and then get on with it, maybe I'm seeing what I want to see. Thanks for the great chart, very clear, I often get confused with COT data.
Comm's are nett short, but coming off lows, seems a short signal has not come off. So must mean long1 ;)
Hi Wayne,
Going by the COT data a quick pullback (back to about where that green line was recently) could see gold retest 440 and then get on with it, maybe I'm seeing what I want to see. Thanks for the great chart, very clear, I often get confused with COT data.
Kauri
18th-November-2005, 02:48 AM
NEW YORK (MarketWatch) -- Gold futures ran up to an 18-year high Thursday, extending the double-digit gains seen in the previous session, while copper futures continued their march to all-time highs.
Gold for December delivery traded as high as $486.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was last up $6.70 at $485.80.
The precious metal had surged $10.10 on Wednesday.
"Gold's move to $480 makes further near-term strength likely," said Morgan Stanley technical analyst Mark Newton, who sees a possible retest of the December 1987 highs near $500, then a move up to the $515 to $525 range.
Merrill Lynch technical analyst Dennis Mark believes the run-up in gold prices toward $500 will give the gold market a psychological boost, and continue propel gold stocks.
December copper tacked on 1.4 cents to a fresh all-time high of $1.949.
CS First Boston attributed the gains to continued speculation regarding China's potential large short position and its ability to export metal in order to cover.
The speculation surfaced after the Times of London reported on Tuesday that a Chinese copper dealer, who worked at the Chinese State Reserve Bureau, disappeared after selling an estimated $800 million worth of copper short. :rocketwho
Gold for December delivery traded as high as $486.90 an ounce on the New York Mercantile Exchange and was last up $6.70 at $485.80.
The precious metal had surged $10.10 on Wednesday.
"Gold's move to $480 makes further near-term strength likely," said Morgan Stanley technical analyst Mark Newton, who sees a possible retest of the December 1987 highs near $500, then a move up to the $515 to $525 range.
Merrill Lynch technical analyst Dennis Mark believes the run-up in gold prices toward $500 will give the gold market a psychological boost, and continue propel gold stocks.
December copper tacked on 1.4 cents to a fresh all-time high of $1.949.
CS First Boston attributed the gains to continued speculation regarding China's potential large short position and its ability to export metal in order to cover.
The speculation surfaced after the Times of London reported on Tuesday that a Chinese copper dealer, who worked at the Chinese State Reserve Bureau, disappeared after selling an estimated $800 million worth of copper short. :rocketwho
brerwallabi
18th-November-2005, 07:37 AM
Gold Where is it heading?
Answer $500 US before Xmas watch LHG and CMX fly today.
Answer $500 US before Xmas watch LHG and CMX fly today.
wayneL
18th-November-2005, 08:10 AM
Gold Where is it heading?
Answer $500 US before Xmas watch LHG and CMX fly today.
It will be interesting what traders to with the $500 figure. It's a pretty important psychological level.
My guess is that either it'll be resistance, or they'll get excited and buy straight through it.
(hows that for hedging myself :D )
Answer $500 US before Xmas watch LHG and CMX fly today.
It will be interesting what traders to with the $500 figure. It's a pretty important psychological level.
My guess is that either it'll be resistance, or they'll get excited and buy straight through it.
(hows that for hedging myself :D )
RichKid
18th-November-2005, 12:59 PM
A comparison of bulls and bears.
Suggests a speculative jump to 500 in the near term and then a retracement, volatility no matter what happens so it'll be exciting for most- lots of emotion, gold does that to people.
Mining Weekly- News Today
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=77663
Debate rages over sustainability of gold's assault on $500/oz
The gold price, which yesterday touched a near 18-year high of over $482/oz, appears to be continuing its steady assault on the magical $500/oz level, with bulls still outnumbering bears.
But analysts are mixed as to whether the march can be sustained.
T-SEC gold analyst Nick Goodwin takes a bearish stance, saying that hedge funds and speculators have pushed it to its current level, and that a sharp drop should not be discounted.
Speculative buying, which results in rapid upswings, could see selling at the top of the curve, without any buyers. As an example, Goodwin cites India, which buys a third of the world's gold. The market in India is driven by jewellery makers, who are loathe to buy at current levels.
So, argues Goodwin, the dynamics of supply and demand will see the price falling back sharply.
This situation is enhanced by the fact that these buyers also hold gold in reserve and India has a healthy scrap market.
For the full year, the World Gold Council expected demand from India to push up to 850 t, an increase of about 230 t on last year. Already, the first half of the year saw demand in India up 180 t year-on-year, but the second-half seems to be slowing down somewhat. However, as the jewellery makers evaporate from the market, the price will drop sharply - even though it may have been pushed to $500 - and shares will bear the brunt of this fall, as they tend to outrun the gold price.
Not so, says a bullish David Davis, gold analyst at Andisa Securities, in his paper 'The Future of Gold'. Davis predicts gold at $700/oz by the end of 2008 and, by the end of the decade he forecasts that the yellow-metal would have risen to $800/oz.
In the third quarter of the year, the yellow metal averaged $439,72, a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase.
By the end of next year, he says, gold will have marched to $600.
Davis bases his predictions on supply-and-demand dynamics, which are predicted to “undergo irreversible change, caused by a decline in global mine and Central Bank supply and increased demand from China and investment”.
Supply-and-demand factors could - on their own - “trigger a quantum upward charge in the gold price, enough to sustain a new dollar gold price equilibrium”.
And if this was not enough to push the price upwards, Davis argues that the US dollar will continue to underpin the price and push it further.
The reason for the price moving to stratospheric highs, says Davis, is that supply is falling behind demand and no substantial new reserves are being found to replace dying mines.
While not a new phenomenon, he says that this phenomenon has previously been hidden behind hedging and Reserve Bank sales.
But, this cannot happen ad infinitum and, when the turnaround comes, the gold price will move up rapidly.
With too little exploration, dwindling reserves, dying mines and shortened life-of-mine, Davis sees a recipe for gold's profitability into the future.
And then there is China; this red-hot economy is likely to keep growing its demand for commodities, although it has stabilised from its recent growth patterns. Despite this, the country is likely to double its economy in the next ten years.
Another bear is MD of Barclays Capital's Mining and Metals division, Gerard Holden. Speaking at an Absa Corporate and Merchant Bank resource breakfast this week he called the peak at current levels.
“In the case of gold, we believe that this price move will peak around current levels with a reduction back to $350 (an ounce to) $375 per ounce in the medium term.”
However, he did temper that statement with a warning: “Now I need to caution that an unexpected event which damages global economic growth or raises global tension would impact upon these price outlooks.”
Respected precious-metals observer Paul Walker, who leads Gold Fields Mineral Services, echoes Davis's sentiments that the gold price is sustainable.
In response to emailed questions, he tells Mining Weekly Online that the gold price will continue its march over $500, and this march is sustainable.
He adds, however, that a “lack of Indian demand at high prices will constrain the highs somewhat, as will higher scrap (prices)”.
He confirms that much of the volatility in the price is due to speculators.
Another dimension to the debate was added in the inaugural edition of the 'Yellow Book' released this month where Gary Mead looks at the outlook for gold over the next 12 to 18 months.
He says the greatest unknown is how far and for how long the hedge funds will be prepared to keep the current momentum going.
“What goes up eventually will come down; but it may go much higher and perhaps even break through $500 an ounce in 2006, before it does come down,” Mead writes, adding that he foresees an average 2006 price of $430 an ounce.
Suggests a speculative jump to 500 in the near term and then a retracement, volatility no matter what happens so it'll be exciting for most- lots of emotion, gold does that to people.
Mining Weekly- News Today
http://www.miningweekly.co.za/min/news/today/?show=77663
Debate rages over sustainability of gold's assault on $500/oz
The gold price, which yesterday touched a near 18-year high of over $482/oz, appears to be continuing its steady assault on the magical $500/oz level, with bulls still outnumbering bears.
But analysts are mixed as to whether the march can be sustained.
T-SEC gold analyst Nick Goodwin takes a bearish stance, saying that hedge funds and speculators have pushed it to its current level, and that a sharp drop should not be discounted.
Speculative buying, which results in rapid upswings, could see selling at the top of the curve, without any buyers. As an example, Goodwin cites India, which buys a third of the world's gold. The market in India is driven by jewellery makers, who are loathe to buy at current levels.
So, argues Goodwin, the dynamics of supply and demand will see the price falling back sharply.
This situation is enhanced by the fact that these buyers also hold gold in reserve and India has a healthy scrap market.
For the full year, the World Gold Council expected demand from India to push up to 850 t, an increase of about 230 t on last year. Already, the first half of the year saw demand in India up 180 t year-on-year, but the second-half seems to be slowing down somewhat. However, as the jewellery makers evaporate from the market, the price will drop sharply - even though it may have been pushed to $500 - and shares will bear the brunt of this fall, as they tend to outrun the gold price.
Not so, says a bullish David Davis, gold analyst at Andisa Securities, in his paper 'The Future of Gold'. Davis predicts gold at $700/oz by the end of 2008 and, by the end of the decade he forecasts that the yellow-metal would have risen to $800/oz.
In the third quarter of the year, the yellow metal averaged $439,72, a 3% quarter-on-quarter increase.
By the end of next year, he says, gold will have marched to $600.
Davis bases his predictions on supply-and-demand dynamics, which are predicted to “undergo irreversible change, caused by a decline in global mine and Central Bank supply and increased demand from China and investment”.
Supply-and-demand factors could - on their own - “trigger a quantum upward charge in the gold price, enough to sustain a new dollar gold price equilibrium”.
And if this was not enough to push the price upwards, Davis argues that the US dollar will continue to underpin the price and push it further.
The reason for the price moving to stratospheric highs, says Davis, is that supply is falling behind demand and no substantial new reserves are being found to replace dying mines.
While not a new phenomenon, he says that this phenomenon has previously been hidden behind hedging and Reserve Bank sales.
But, this cannot happen ad infinitum and, when the turnaround comes, the gold price will move up rapidly.
With too little exploration, dwindling reserves, dying mines and shortened life-of-mine, Davis sees a recipe for gold's profitability into the future.
And then there is China; this red-hot economy is likely to keep growing its demand for commodities, although it has stabilised from its recent growth patterns. Despite this, the country is likely to double its economy in the next ten years.
Another bear is MD of Barclays Capital's Mining and Metals division, Gerard Holden. Speaking at an Absa Corporate and Merchant Bank resource breakfast this week he called the peak at current levels.
“In the case of gold, we believe that this price move will peak around current levels with a reduction back to $350 (an ounce to) $375 per ounce in the medium term.”
However, he did temper that statement with a warning: “Now I need to caution that an unexpected event which damages global economic growth or raises global tension would impact upon these price outlooks.”
Respected precious-metals observer Paul Walker, who leads Gold Fields Mineral Services, echoes Davis's sentiments that the gold price is sustainable.
In response to emailed questions, he tells Mining Weekly Online that the gold price will continue its march over $500, and this march is sustainable.
He adds, however, that a “lack of Indian demand at high prices will constrain the highs somewhat, as will higher scrap (prices)”.
He confirms that much of the volatility in the price is due to speculators.
Another dimension to the debate was added in the inaugural edition of the 'Yellow Book' released this month where Gary Mead looks at the outlook for gold over the next 12 to 18 months.
He says the greatest unknown is how far and for how long the hedge funds will be prepared to keep the current momentum going.
“What goes up eventually will come down; but it may go much higher and perhaps even break through $500 an ounce in 2006, before it does come down,” Mead writes, adding that he foresees an average 2006 price of $430 an ounce.
RichKid
1st-December-2005, 10:24 AM
Brief article on Gold with cot charts and some simple TA, shows importance of 500 level, double the value of a double bottom some years ago at 250 and same level as a double top a few years before that: http://www.schaeffersresearch.com/members/services/gold/bgscommentary.aspx?ID=338
The last gold chart I posted would show that gold has hit the upper boundary of that channel, so it either bounces downwards gradually in the opposite direction (circa 440/450) or it pullsback (as it has so far) and then spikes through the channel top- according to previous price action.
The last gold chart I posted would show that gold has hit the upper boundary of that channel, so it either bounces downwards gradually in the opposite direction (circa 440/450) or it pullsback (as it has so far) and then spikes through the channel top- according to previous price action.
brerwallabi
1st-December-2005, 10:46 AM
The last gold chart I posted would show that gold has hit the upper boundary of that channel, so it either bounces downwards gradually in the opposite direction (circa 440/450) or it pullsback (as it has so far) and then spikes through the channel top- according to previous price action.
Rich your starting to sound like a chartist lol, I hope your interpretation of spiking through the channel top is the correct analysis of the current gold chart.
Rich your starting to sound like a chartist lol, I hope your interpretation of spiking through the channel top is the correct analysis of the current gold chart.
RichKid
1st-December-2005, 11:38 AM
Rich your starting to sound like a chartist lol,
If only!! But I hope I'm not going to end up like the majority who aren't very good (stage at which I'm atm), btw, I wonder what a good chartist is?? (no jokes please from you funnymentals ppl)
I seem to be re-learning things all the time, still trying to figure out how to draw simle trend line and what it actually singifies, the simpler it gets the better I sleep at night, it also helps to have strong, clear trends like with these commodities. Now to get more experience/expertise in money and risk mgmt....that's the key.
If only!! But I hope I'm not going to end up like the majority who aren't very good (stage at which I'm atm), btw, I wonder what a good chartist is?? (no jokes please from you funnymentals ppl)
I seem to be re-learning things all the time, still trying to figure out how to draw simle trend line and what it actually singifies, the simpler it gets the better I sleep at night, it also helps to have strong, clear trends like with these commodities. Now to get more experience/expertise in money and risk mgmt....that's the key.
golddust
2nd-December-2005, 01:49 PM
I follow Gold shares. Particularly interested in companies listed with interests in the Western Australian Goldfields. Anybody else here do the same?
Dan_
2nd-December-2005, 02:59 PM
I do hold a few gold stocks (mining in WA) and am looking to develop my understanding the mining process better, as well as the gold market.
Look forward to your inputs
Look forward to your inputs
golddust
2nd-December-2005, 03:58 PM
Gold currently trading over $500. Yippee :)
roll on Gold, it's off to the moon we go....
I brought Gold shares 5 years ago.....and up they go :dance:
roll on Gold, it's off to the moon we go....
I brought Gold shares 5 years ago.....and up they go :dance:
golddust
2nd-December-2005, 04:38 PM
Gold now 504.95 :bananasmi....come on gold bugs where is the cheers :dance: :confused:
wayneL
2nd-December-2005, 04:46 PM
Golddust,
We appreciate your enthusiasm and input.
Just to keep the forum tidy and to ensure continuity, keep all posts related to one topic in one thread.
Thanks
We appreciate your enthusiasm and input.
Just to keep the forum tidy and to ensure continuity, keep all posts related to one topic in one thread.
Thanks
Profitseeker
2nd-December-2005, 05:08 PM
What about joining this discusion to the other gold ones that have been going a while?
<<<Great idea Profitseeker...done :) >>>
<<<Great idea Profitseeker...done :) >>>
wayneL
2nd-December-2005, 05:15 PM
Golddust,
Though shalt not insult the moderator ;)
Though shalt not insult the moderator ;)
RichKid
3rd-December-2005, 09:57 PM
Golddust,
Though shalt not insult the moderator ;)
Maybe we should have that in the 'code of conduct', but then I'm clearly biased....;)
A chart of Gold 100 oz. (GC, COMEX) Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Dec., 2005.
Is this going to find support above the magic 500 level or not? If not, I reckon retracement as I guessed earlier; if it does, then at least another burst higher before a retest, as often occurs. I really don't know, new territory for most gold traders out there (except the old hands).
Though shalt not insult the moderator ;)
Maybe we should have that in the 'code of conduct', but then I'm clearly biased....;)
A chart of Gold 100 oz. (GC, COMEX) Daily Commodity Futures Price Chart: Dec., 2005.
Is this going to find support above the magic 500 level or not? If not, I reckon retracement as I guessed earlier; if it does, then at least another burst higher before a retest, as often occurs. I really don't know, new territory for most gold traders out there (except the old hands).
RichKid
15th-December-2005, 12:33 PM
Okay so it was just a matter of time before it corrected after that near vertical rise, bearish candles and a classic spike top, increase in trading costs in Japan have dampened speculators too. I wonder what the latest COT charts are telling us overall???
Retracing to that moderately strong area of support at $500, if that level survives this month it can be considered strong support imho- looking for a new short term trend then.
Currently near the upper end of that channel posted in one of my earlier charts, will be back to the drawing board for me soon.
Retracing to that moderately strong area of support at $500, if that level survives this month it can be considered strong support imho- looking for a new short term trend then.
Currently near the upper end of that channel posted in one of my earlier charts, will be back to the drawing board for me soon.
MARKETWAVES
15th-December-2005, 03:46 PM
Here are 2 pictures of Gold's best friend
before and after ........................
before and after ........................
MARKETWAVES
15th-December-2005, 03:48 PM
pg-2 .....................
wayneL
15th-December-2005, 03:59 PM
I wonder what the latest COT charts are telling us overall???
Getting close to extremes again. But thats not telling us anything of use ..... yet. Stay tuned!
Getting close to extremes again. But thats not telling us anything of use ..... yet. Stay tuned!
RichKid
15th-December-2005, 05:02 PM
Here are 2 pictures of Gold's best friend
before and after ........................
Haven't the trends disengaged? I haven't looked at a USD/USDGoldprice chart for awhile.....here it is (USD index (DX) and pog in USD).
Looks like the USD is misbehaving, we all know that gold is going to go up in the medium to long term right? So start falling USD, right now! There you go, it should start doing it now....hahaha, damn currencies, sometimes they think they're commodities and vice versa...
This is why you need good money and risk mgmt, even the most symmetrical chart like the one below can get you (you just can't predict these things so consistently, just see how it all went haywire towards the end of the current period.
before and after ........................
Haven't the trends disengaged? I haven't looked at a USD/USDGoldprice chart for awhile.....here it is (USD index (DX) and pog in USD).
Looks like the USD is misbehaving, we all know that gold is going to go up in the medium to long term right? So start falling USD, right now! There you go, it should start doing it now....hahaha, damn currencies, sometimes they think they're commodities and vice versa...
This is why you need good money and risk mgmt, even the most symmetrical chart like the one below can get you (you just can't predict these things so consistently, just see how it all went haywire towards the end of the current period.
RichKid
15th-December-2005, 05:04 PM
Getting close to extremes again. But thats not telling us anything of use ..... yet. Stay tuned!
Thanks Wayne,
Yep, stay tuned alright, watching closely. Is that a recent graph? I thought they were compiled every Friday or something like that, so would it be last weeks?
For those who are having trouble picking the orange from the red the red is the price (I think?), it is the flatter line at the top.
More free COT graphs here, hope I haven't posted this already, current graphs are for last week: http://www.upperman.com/basic-cot-share/cotfree.htm
The guy who runs that site (Upperman) has written a book on trading using COT. He seems to look for 'w' style double bottoms in the graphs, amongst other things. Might have one here for Gold??
Thanks Wayne,
Yep, stay tuned alright, watching closely. Is that a recent graph? I thought they were compiled every Friday or something like that, so would it be last weeks?
For those who are having trouble picking the orange from the red the red is the price (I think?), it is the flatter line at the top.
More free COT graphs here, hope I haven't posted this already, current graphs are for last week: http://www.upperman.com/basic-cot-share/cotfree.htm
The guy who runs that site (Upperman) has written a book on trading using COT. He seems to look for 'w' style double bottoms in the graphs, amongst other things. Might have one here for Gold??
Porper
15th-December-2005, 07:22 PM
Thanks Wayne,
Yep, stay tuned alright, watching closely. Is that a recent graph? I thought they were compiled every Friday or something like that, so would it be last weeks?
For those who are having trouble picking the orange from the red the red is the price (I think?), it is the flatter line at the top.
More free COT graphs here, hope I haven't posted this already, current graphs are for last week: http://www.upperman.com/basic-cot-share/cotfree.htm
The guy who runs that site (Upperman) has written a book on trading using COT. He seems to look for 'w' style double bottoms in the graphs, amongst other things. Might have one here for Gold??
I read somewhere that if you looked at a chart and wasn't too sure where it was heading, get a 10 year old and ask them whether it is going up, down or sideways.Apparently they are usually correct as they have no preconceived ideas so as to influence them.
My point is, if we keep it simple, that is sometimes better than trying to find wave counts or looking at technical indicators.
Now where Gold is concerned, the trend for a while has been up with the inevitable profit taking.I am very confident that this will not change.Gold is no longer attached to the USD by the hip, so maybe the dollar will dive as predicted by some experts,maybe not, maybe people are anticipating this and this has caused the separation, who knows.
I have 70% of my portfolio in Gold stocks, and see no reason to change my position, if I get stopped out, so be it.:xyxthumbs
Yep, stay tuned alright, watching closely. Is that a recent graph? I thought they were compiled every Friday or something like that, so would it be last weeks?
For those who are having trouble picking the orange from the red the red is the price (I think?), it is the flatter line at the top.
More free COT graphs here, hope I haven't posted this already, current graphs are for last week: http://www.upperman.com/basic-cot-share/cotfree.htm
The guy who runs that site (Upperman) has written a book on trading using COT. He seems to look for 'w' style double bottoms in the graphs, amongst other things. Might have one here for Gold??
I read somewhere that if you looked at a chart and wasn't too sure where it was heading, get a 10 year old and ask them whether it is going up, down or sideways.Apparently they are usually correct as they have no preconceived ideas so as to influence them.
My point is, if we keep it simple, that is sometimes better than trying to find wave counts or looking at technical indicators.
Now where Gold is concerned, the trend for a while has been up with the inevitable profit taking.I am very confident that this will not change.Gold is no longer attached to the USD by the hip, so maybe the dollar will dive as predicted by some experts,maybe not, maybe people are anticipating this and this has caused the separation, who knows.
I have 70% of my portfolio in Gold stocks, and see no reason to change my position, if I get stopped out, so be it.:xyxthumbs
wayneL
15th-December-2005, 10:34 PM
I read somewhere that if you looked at a chart and wasn't too sure where it was heading, get a 10 year old and ask them whether it is going up, down or sideways.Apparently they are usually correct as they have no preconceived ideas so as to influence them.
My point is, if we keep it simple, that is sometimes better than trying to find wave counts or looking at technical indicators.
Now where Gold is concerned, the trend for a while has been up with the inevitable profit taking.I am very confident that this will not change.Gold is no longer attached to the USD by the hip, so maybe the dollar will dive as predicted by some experts,maybe not, maybe people are anticipating this and this has caused the separation, who knows.
I have 70% of my portfolio in Gold stocks, and see no reason to change my position, if I get stopped out, so be it.:xyxthumbs
I've got no arguments with that, KISS for sure.
The case for wave counts etc comes from the simple fact that all trends end, or at least punctuated by corrections.
The professional trader doesn't want the drawdown involved with the above, so looks for ways to mitigate this, hence, a layer of complexity not necessary for the investor/trader.
Does it help? In the final analysis it may or may not. But the goal is limiting drawdowns, rather than strictly enhancing returns.
Your approach is correct in your circumstance. However in my circumstance, trading the retracement made good sense....different stroke for fifferent folks :)
Cheers
My point is, if we keep it simple, that is sometimes better than trying to find wave counts or looking at technical indicators.
Now where Gold is concerned, the trend for a while has been up with the inevitable profit taking.I am very confident that this will not change.Gold is no longer attached to the USD by the hip, so maybe the dollar will dive as predicted by some experts,maybe not, maybe people are anticipating this and this has caused the separation, who knows.
I have 70% of my portfolio in Gold stocks, and see no reason to change my position, if I get stopped out, so be it.:xyxthumbs
I've got no arguments with that, KISS for sure.
The case for wave counts etc comes from the simple fact that all trends end, or at least punctuated by corrections.
The professional trader doesn't want the drawdown involved with the above, so looks for ways to mitigate this, hence, a layer of complexity not necessary for the investor/trader.
Does it help? In the final analysis it may or may not. But the goal is limiting drawdowns, rather than strictly enhancing returns.
Your approach is correct in your circumstance. However in my circumstance, trading the retracement made good sense....different stroke for fifferent folks :)
Cheers
RichKid
15th-December-2005, 11:27 PM
Saw this on Kitco.com about the dynamics of the market, looks like gold focused funds are a new source of physical demand: http://www.newswire.ca/en/releases/archive/December2005/15/c0642.html
Porper
16th-December-2005, 05:02 AM
I've got no arguments with that, KISS for sure.
The case for wave counts etc comes from the simple fact that all trends end, or at least punctuated by corrections.
The professional trader doesn't want the drawdown involved with the above, so looks for ways to mitigate this, hence, a layer of complexity not necessary for the investor/trader.
Does it help? In the final analysis it may or may not. But the goal is limiting drawdowns, rather than strictly enhancing returns.
Your approach is correct in your circumstance. However in my circumstance, trading the retracement made good sense....different stroke for fifferent folks :)
Cheers
I can't disagree with that.The difference is whether you have time to look for E.Wave counts etc.I think if you work full time it can get too time consuming, so your stop loss maybe has to be a bit wider to take the everyday fluctuations.
If I were a professional trader I would certainly be looking at it differently.
Maybe in a year or so :eek:
As for drawdown, well as I understand it, tighter stops = less percentage of winners, better win/loss ratio, less drawdown, bigger profits. No lose situation :confused: in theory anyway.
The case for wave counts etc comes from the simple fact that all trends end, or at least punctuated by corrections.
The professional trader doesn't want the drawdown involved with the above, so looks for ways to mitigate this, hence, a layer of complexity not necessary for the investor/trader.
Does it help? In the final analysis it may or may not. But the goal is limiting drawdowns, rather than strictly enhancing returns.
Your approach is correct in your circumstance. However in my circumstance, trading the retracement made good sense....different stroke for fifferent folks :)
Cheers
I can't disagree with that.The difference is whether you have time to look for E.Wave counts etc.I think if you work full time it can get too time consuming, so your stop loss maybe has to be a bit wider to take the everyday fluctuations.
If I were a professional trader I would certainly be looking at it differently.
Maybe in a year or so :eek:
As for drawdown, well as I understand it, tighter stops = less percentage of winners, better win/loss ratio, less drawdown, bigger profits. No lose situation :confused: in theory anyway.
MalteseBull
22nd-December-2005, 03:11 PM
Hi everyone,
I decided to join up today to learn (i am a newbie) about stocks...
Just regarding gold..
I think Gold Should finish at just under or equal to $500 this year..
I have read many reports saying $525 -$550 with political tension and a weaker US Dollar backing this..
Just wanted to know whether it's worth holding on to Gold Stocks due to the lowest price of Gold since Nov 21st.
have a merry christmas and a happy new year :)
I decided to join up today to learn (i am a newbie) about stocks...
Just regarding gold..
I think Gold Should finish at just under or equal to $500 this year..
I have read many reports saying $525 -$550 with political tension and a weaker US Dollar backing this..
Just wanted to know whether it's worth holding on to Gold Stocks due to the lowest price of Gold since Nov 21st.
have a merry christmas and a happy new year :)
TheAnalyst
22nd-December-2005, 04:00 PM
Hi everyone,
I decided to join up today to learn (i am a newbie) about stocks...
Just regarding gold..
I think Gold Should finish at just under or equal to $500 this year..
I have read many reports saying $525 -$550 with political tension and a weaker US Dollar backing this..
Just wanted to know whether it's worth holding on to Gold Stocks due to the lowest price of Gold since Nov 21st.
have a merry christmas and a happy new year :)
Hi
The price of gold in its current cycle is dependent upon the size and the compounding increases in the US deficit, so wherever the deficit goes thats where gold will go.
I decided to join up today to learn (i am a newbie) about stocks...
Just regarding gold..
I think Gold Should finish at just under or equal to $500 this year..
I have read many reports saying $525 -$550 with political tension and a weaker US Dollar backing this..
Just wanted to know whether it's worth holding on to Gold Stocks due to the lowest price of Gold since Nov 21st.
have a merry christmas and a happy new year :)
Hi
The price of gold in its current cycle is dependent upon the size and the compounding increases in the US deficit, so wherever the deficit goes thats where gold will go.
mime
22nd-December-2005, 07:14 PM
Gold dropped alot recently. I'm not so sure about what the future is. I thought it wouldn't rise above $450 an oz for some time. I was wrong. I think the US ecomomy has a positive future so with that inmind gold probably won't do that much.
TheAnalyst
22nd-December-2005, 07:19 PM
US central bank keeps increasing interest rates which attracts foriegn dollars into the US to meet the shortfall of the deficit and as the US does this and the deficit gets bigger the yanks keep buying gold as a deficit devalues the price of the US dollar and institutions have set formulas that automatically advise them when to buy gold and when to sell off gold in accordance with the US economic variables.
bvbfan
22nd-December-2005, 08:41 PM
the yanks keep buying gold as a deficit devalues the price of the US dollar and institutions have set formulas that automatically advise them when to buy gold and when to sell off gold in accordance with the US economic variables.
Really?
Much of the physical gold buying is going into jewellery and into investment demand from Asia and the Middle East. The US only has buying from hedge funds who are probably just trading the paper, not actually taking delivery of physical gold.
US gold stockpiles are most likely 0. Fort Know maybe say they have the largest reserves in the world but with no audit, how do you know?
Gold has surprized me in the last 2 months with its parabolic run to $540 USD, off course the pullback was needed. It may continue on to make it a 6th year of gains, but I think 2006 will be flat for gold shares before a major move up in 2007 to $600
The Asian demand is the only factor I can't grasp, well the fact they are buying so aggressively.
The first 6 months, it'll head down before rallying from July to the end of 2006 as it has done the past 3 years. Whether it'll end up for the year, I wouldn't want to stay. If it closes around $490 this year, then I think its possible
Really?
Much of the physical gold buying is going into jewellery and into investment demand from Asia and the Middle East. The US only has buying from hedge funds who are probably just trading the paper, not actually taking delivery of physical gold.
US gold stockpiles are most likely 0. Fort Know maybe say they have the largest reserves in the world but with no audit, how do you know?
Gold has surprized me in the last 2 months with its parabolic run to $540 USD, off course the pullback was needed. It may continue on to make it a 6th year of gains, but I think 2006 will be flat for gold shares before a major move up in 2007 to $600
The Asian demand is the only factor I can't grasp, well the fact they are buying so aggressively.
The first 6 months, it'll head down before rallying from July to the end of 2006 as it has done the past 3 years. Whether it'll end up for the year, I wouldn't want to stay. If it closes around $490 this year, then I think its possible
wayneL
23rd-December-2005, 02:50 AM
Fundamentals? What?
I'll just take the signals off the chart. I'm long!
Charts and discussion here(File to big to upload) (http://lingrove.blogspot.com/2005/12/gold.html)
And here is my entry (http://lingrove.blogspot.com/2005/12/im-gold-bull-for-now.html)
I'll just take the signals off the chart. I'm long!
Charts and discussion here(File to big to upload) (http://lingrove.blogspot.com/2005/12/gold.html)
And here is my entry (http://lingrove.blogspot.com/2005/12/im-gold-bull-for-now.html)
TheAnalyst
23rd-December-2005, 06:22 PM
Really?
Much of the physical gold buying is going into jewellery and into investment demand from Asia and the Middle East. The US only has buying from hedge funds who are probably just trading the paper, not actually taking delivery of physical gold.
US gold stockpiles are most likely 0. Fort Know maybe say they have the largest reserves in the world but with no audit, how do you know?
Gold has surprized me in the last 2 months with its parabolic run to $540 USD, off course the pullback was needed. It may continue on to make it a 6th year of gains, but I think 2006 will be flat for gold shares before a major move up in 2007 to $600
The Asian demand is the only factor I can't grasp, well the fact they are buying so aggressively.
The first 6 months, it'll head down before rallying from July to the end of 2006 as it has done the past 3 years. Whether it'll end up for the year, I wouldn't want to stay. If it closes around $490 this year, then I think its possible
American institutions are buying big....its how they hedge their risk in regards t US economics.
They have set formulas that take into at least 5 variables (delta, gamma, theta, vega and rho all based upon the assumption of constant volatility of the Black-Scholes bionomial tree) then the final one is VaR and C-VaR and all the trading is automated by a computer program that continually has the many different changes of the variables over the entire world markets, it also takes into account the current demand from gold for human purposes but they are using gold buying and selling it to hedge risk.
I REALLY dont deny that its being used to make jewllery as well but all these set formulas are used for every type of option, warrant, futures contract and any type of derivative and the underlying asset of every kind is taken into account. Humans only oversee that the computerised trading systems by every financial institution in the world does not falter.
Much of the physical gold buying is going into jewellery and into investment demand from Asia and the Middle East. The US only has buying from hedge funds who are probably just trading the paper, not actually taking delivery of physical gold.
US gold stockpiles are most likely 0. Fort Know maybe say they have the largest reserves in the world but with no audit, how do you know?
Gold has surprized me in the last 2 months with its parabolic run to $540 USD, off course the pullback was needed. It may continue on to make it a 6th year of gains, but I think 2006 will be flat for gold shares before a major move up in 2007 to $600
The Asian demand is the only factor I can't grasp, well the fact they are buying so aggressively.
The first 6 months, it'll head down before rallying from July to the end of 2006 as it has done the past 3 years. Whether it'll end up for the year, I wouldn't want to stay. If it closes around $490 this year, then I think its possible
American institutions are buying big....its how they hedge their risk in regards t US economics.
They have set formulas that take into at least 5 variables (delta, gamma, theta, vega and rho all based upon the assumption of constant volatility of the Black-Scholes bionomial tree) then the final one is VaR and C-VaR and all the trading is automated by a computer program that continually has the many different changes of the variables over the entire world markets, it also takes into account the current demand from gold for human purposes but they are using gold buying and selling it to hedge risk.
I REALLY dont deny that its being used to make jewllery as well but all these set formulas are used for every type of option, warrant, futures contract and any type of derivative and the underlying asset of every kind is taken into account. Humans only oversee that the computerised trading systems by every financial institution in the world does not falter.
RichKid
31st-December-2005, 11:17 AM
COT for 27Dec05, if that's a bottom for the Commercials (Red line) then a short term retracement on the cards? Maybe a descending triangle finding support around 490?? A quiet time this time of year so the market should wake up next month.
phoenixrising
2nd-January-2006, 11:55 PM
Hiya Rich,
Thanks for posting COT, I wish I knew how to interpret it.
Are you having success understanding it?
Any COT experts out there (maybe Wayne if we ask nicely)
Nice to know where gold is going from here. Hanging around $516 or so over New Year break.
Cheers
Thanks for posting COT, I wish I knew how to interpret it.
Are you having success understanding it?
Any COT experts out there (maybe Wayne if we ask nicely)
Nice to know where gold is going from here. Hanging around $516 or so over New Year break.
Cheers
wayneL
3rd-January-2006, 03:43 AM
Hiya Rich,
Thanks for posting COT, I wish I knew how to interpret it.
Are you having success understanding it?
Any COT experts out there (maybe Wayne if we ask nicely)
Nice to know where gold is going from here. Hanging around $516 or so over New Year break.
Cheers
A long way from being an expert pheonix :eek:
But, I am told that the great bulk of commercial hedging is done OTC (Over the counter) rather than through the futures markets.
So we don't know the true commercial position.
I have no way of verifying if this is true, just regurgitating what I was told.
Also the latest extreme short position of commercial traders in the COT report didn't result in a turn of market. So maybe its true.
Futures markets tend to be very technical so fib levels and suchlike are probably as good a guide as any, in the short term at least.
I'm thinking a short might be my next trade based on what I'm seeing right now (swing trade) but this opinion could change rapidly depending what happens tomorrow.
Long term, a lot of smart folks are accumilating as much as they can....physical holdings. As usual, this could either mean further upward pressure on price, or, the contrarians would contend that sentiment is way to bullish and that this points to a top being in.
For mine, I'll take any technical excuse to be long. :) But I'm not seeing that right at the moment.
IMO of course, and do your own research etc etc etc
Cheers
Thanks for posting COT, I wish I knew how to interpret it.
Are you having success understanding it?
Any COT experts out there (maybe Wayne if we ask nicely)
Nice to know where gold is going from here. Hanging around $516 or so over New Year break.
Cheers
A long way from being an expert pheonix :eek:
But, I am told that the great bulk of commercial hedging is done OTC (Over the counter) rather than through the futures markets.
So we don't know the true commercial position.
I have no way of verifying if this is true, just regurgitating what I was told.
Also the latest extreme short position of commercial traders in the COT report didn't result in a turn of market. So maybe its true.
Futures markets tend to be very technical so fib levels and suchlike are probably as good a guide as any, in the short term at least.
I'm thinking a short might be my next trade based on what I'm seeing right now (swing trade) but this opinion could change rapidly depending what happens tomorrow.
Long term, a lot of smart folks are accumilating as much as they can....physical holdings. As usual, this could either mean further upward pressure on price, or, the contrarians would contend that sentiment is way to bullish and that this points to a top being in.
For mine, I'll take any technical excuse to be long. :) But I'm not seeing that right at the moment.
IMO of course, and do your own research etc etc etc
Cheers
RichKid
3rd-January-2006, 11:45 AM
Hiya Rich,
Thanks for posting COT, I wish I knew how to interpret it.
Are you having success understanding it?
Any COT experts out there (maybe Wayne if we ask nicely)
Nice to know where gold is going from here. Hanging around $516 or so over New Year break.
Cheers
Hey Phoenix,
I'm not sure myself, just reading the lines like a normal chart and looking for patterns. The source of the chart (the upperman site) which I mentioned ealier has some explanations. I'd be more inclined to go with the gold price chart atm, looks like 520 is capping prices, maybe another decline to 490 (minor support)?
Thanks for posting COT, I wish I knew how to interpret it.
Are you having success understanding it?
Any COT experts out there (maybe Wayne if we ask nicely)
Nice to know where gold is going from here. Hanging around $516 or so over New Year break.
Cheers
Hey Phoenix,
I'm not sure myself, just reading the lines like a normal chart and looking for patterns. The source of the chart (the upperman site) which I mentioned ealier has some explanations. I'd be more inclined to go with the gold price chart atm, looks like 520 is capping prices, maybe another decline to 490 (minor support)?
smrt-guy
3rd-January-2006, 03:32 PM
I'm desperately hoping for a correction back down to $490 so I can find another decent entry into stocks like OXR, NCM, GGN and a few small caps.
I don't expect to see it below $500 this month though :(
I don't expect to see it below $500 this month though :(
RichKid
3rd-January-2006, 04:07 PM
I'm desperately hoping for a correction back down to $490 so I can find another decent entry into stocks like OXR, NCM, GGN and a few small caps.
I don't expect to see it below $500 this month though :(
Might just settle on 500 if at all, nothing to do but watch now, no open interest to speak of either.
I don't expect to see it below $500 this month though :(
Might just settle on 500 if at all, nothing to do but watch now, no open interest to speak of either.
wayneL
3rd-January-2006, 04:40 PM
I'm desperately hoping for a correction back down to $490 so I can find another decent entry into stocks like OXR, NCM, GGN and a few small caps.
I don't expect to see it below $500 this month though :(
We shall see what we shall see. Some Elliott Wavers fully expect it below 500 this month. Maybe too many expect the retracement to 485ish, hence the market wants to take money from these people.
Me, I wouldn't have a clue!! I'm flat ATM.
I don't expect to see it below $500 this month though :(
We shall see what we shall see. Some Elliott Wavers fully expect it below 500 this month. Maybe too many expect the retracement to 485ish, hence the market wants to take money from these people.
Me, I wouldn't have a clue!! I'm flat ATM.
michael_selway
3rd-January-2006, 06:48 PM
We shall see what we shall see. Some Elliott Wavers fully expect it below 500 this month. Maybe too many expect the retracement to 485ish, hence the market wants to take money from these people.
Me, I wouldn't have a clue!! I'm flat ATM.
I think its going to go to 600+ slowly now in a year or 2, but from then on, im not sure, probably start a down trend
This is just my prediction
Me, I wouldn't have a clue!! I'm flat ATM.
I think its going to go to 600+ slowly now in a year or 2, but from then on, im not sure, probably start a down trend
This is just my prediction
TheAnalyst
3rd-January-2006, 08:03 PM
Gold is a tough one at the moment...it has risen with alarming magnitude and with the fed increasing US interest rates that strengthens the US dollar..i believe that there are a lot less riskier investments around at the moment that can give you your 20-50% without the the huge movement and risk like gold.
I think that probabilities of gold going up are good over the 1 to 2 year time period but i would look at some type of leverage so i could continue with other good opportunities in the market.
This is my strategy and i have been looking at some type of leveraged financial instrument such as those gold commodity call warants zauwma with an expiry date at decenber 2013, so time is on your side.
I would love someone to give me a summary on lihir gold, newcrest and any other gold stock that has real gold and is selling and something that the market hasnt already priced future growth into probally thats why i am more inclined towards the gold call warrant as it is reliant totally upon movements in the price of gold.
I think that probabilities of gold going up are good over the 1 to 2 year time period but i would look at some type of leverage so i could continue with other good opportunities in the market.
This is my strategy and i have been looking at some type of leveraged financial instrument such as those gold commodity call warants zauwma with an expiry date at decenber 2013, so time is on your side.
I would love someone to give me a summary on lihir gold, newcrest and any other gold stock that has real gold and is selling and something that the market hasnt already priced future growth into probally thats why i am more inclined towards the gold call warrant as it is reliant totally upon movements in the price of gold.
clowboy
3rd-January-2006, 08:47 PM
The analyst.
Do the warrants have time decay?
I dont really know that much about warrants so just asking.
Another direct gold investment is GOLD on asx but it has a very small time decay.
Do the warrants have time decay?
I dont really know that much about warrants so just asking.
Another direct gold investment is GOLD on asx but it has a very small time decay.
TheAnalyst
3rd-January-2006, 09:13 PM
The analyst.
Do the warrants have time decay?
I dont really know that much about warrants so just asking.
Another direct gold investment is GOLD on asx but it has a very small time decay.
Yes, they would have time decay but it would be very small as equity call and put warrants are just longer dated options, just give you a little or a lot more time.
The code i quoted was from the asx and thier is only one quoted and the asx is much more simpler that the sfe as the future broker require deposited money as insurance if trades go against you.
So if you are long on gold and u dont want to use a lot of capital and leverage you can just get the call warrant and sit there....but i cant give you advise and to be honest an entry point into gold at the moment is difficulrt as most will agree.
Look what happened about 2 yrs ago when it shot from the 300's into the 420 mark then it didnt rise until just lately.
Do the warrants have time decay?
I dont really know that much about warrants so just asking.
Another direct gold investment is GOLD on asx but it has a very small time decay.
Yes, they would have time decay but it would be very small as equity call and put warrants are just longer dated options, just give you a little or a lot more time.
The code i quoted was from the asx and thier is only one quoted and the asx is much more simpler that the sfe as the future broker require deposited money as insurance if trades go against you.
So if you are long on gold and u dont want to use a lot of capital and leverage you can just get the call warrant and sit there....but i cant give you advise and to be honest an entry point into gold at the moment is difficulrt as most will agree.
Look what happened about 2 yrs ago when it shot from the 300's into the 420 mark then it didnt rise until just lately.
wayneL
4th-January-2006, 12:01 AM
Popped up to $526 on the feb contract in trading so far this year.
I think this puts the EW ABC correction scenario to <$500 in a spot of bother. Trading after holiday breaks can tend to be a bit emotive, so we'll see if this carries any significance once NY & Chicago opens.
S&P futs up 6 points before the bell also...like I say...emotive.
We're seeing lots of emotiveness so far this year huh? :D
Cheers
I think this puts the EW ABC correction scenario to <$500 in a spot of bother. Trading after holiday breaks can tend to be a bit emotive, so we'll see if this carries any significance once NY & Chicago opens.
S&P futs up 6 points before the bell also...like I say...emotive.
We're seeing lots of emotiveness so far this year huh? :D
Cheers
clowboy
4th-January-2006, 12:42 AM
analyst
I meant GOLD as in the code GOLD which is a direct purchase of bullion stored in a london vault.
Not levereged though although you can margin loan against it at 50%.
Was really just for interest sake :)
I meant GOLD as in the code GOLD which is a direct purchase of bullion stored in a london vault.
Not levereged though although you can margin loan against it at 50%.
Was really just for interest sake :)
RichKid
4th-January-2006, 01:52 AM
My very confused attempts at applying EW to Gold, the only counts I'm confident of are Waves 1 & 2 in the monthly chart.
Weekly: If you're super bullish it really looks like this wave 3 is going on forever with no sign of a Wave 4 yet (unless you count that retracement to 489 as the end of Wave 4 and last month's high as the end of wave 3)....who knows?
Any other takers trying this EW stuff.....MarketWaves, still around for an update?
GP and other readers of Nick's book, I know some of you were trying out EW, like to have a go at Gold? Maybe Nick'll help out too???
Weekly: If you're super bullish it really looks like this wave 3 is going on forever with no sign of a Wave 4 yet (unless you count that retracement to 489 as the end of Wave 4 and last month's high as the end of wave 3)....who knows?
Any other takers trying this EW stuff.....MarketWaves, still around for an update?
GP and other readers of Nick's book, I know some of you were trying out EW, like to have a go at Gold? Maybe Nick'll help out too???
wayneL
4th-January-2006, 02:19 AM
Oi Vay! We been up to 531.8 on the feb contract....SO FAR!
Equities gap closed...Now it gets interesting, we in for an interesting ride this year IMO.
Cheers
Equities gap closed...Now it gets interesting, we in for an interesting ride this year IMO.
Cheers
wayneL
4th-January-2006, 08:09 AM
Oi Vay! We been up to 531.8 on the feb contract....SO FAR!
Equities gap closed...Now it gets interesting, we in for an interesting ride this year IMO.
Cheers
zgg06 high 535.90
check out equities also...a very wide ranging day due to FOMC minutes http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B58C80AC4%2D4AAB%2D49B3%2DA6F5%2D 1F3F58802CB3%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=
interesting times lie ahead with a range of predictions from 30% up to 30% down.
Just make sure yer backside is covered folks.
Equities gap closed...Now it gets interesting, we in for an interesting ride this year IMO.
Cheers
zgg06 high 535.90
check out equities also...a very wide ranging day due to FOMC minutes http://www.marketwatch.com/news/story.asp?guid=%7B58C80AC4%2D4AAB%2D49B3%2DA6F5%2D 1F3F58802CB3%7D&siteid=mktw&dist=
interesting times lie ahead with a range of predictions from 30% up to 30% down.
Just make sure yer backside is covered folks.
RichKid
5th-January-2006, 10:38 AM
gold feb06, open interest is picking up. Retesting those recent highs.
michael_selway
5th-January-2006, 06:48 PM
Richkid
just wondering if u can post a price chart of Gold from 1980 till now?
Thanks
MS
just wondering if u can post a price chart of Gold from 1980 till now?
Thanks
MS
RichKid
5th-January-2006, 06:59 PM
Richkid
just wondering if u can post a price chart of Gold from 1980 till now?
Thanks
MS
Here it is Michael (from 1975 in fact). From www.Kitco.com.
I suggest you get used to looking up and posting charts yourself as it will be beneficial for your general trading education- I'm happy to help provided you spend some time browsing those sites yourself. It's very easy once you put a bit of effort in to it (finding and posting charts that is) but it can be time consuming to do too often. Hope you're finding these commodity threads informative- but remember it's all speculation rather than advice so be careful.
(Gold retracing atm from highs, but only by a few dollars so far...)
just wondering if u can post a price chart of Gold from 1980 till now?
Thanks
MS
Here it is Michael (from 1975 in fact). From www.Kitco.com.
I suggest you get used to looking up and posting charts yourself as it will be beneficial for your general trading education- I'm happy to help provided you spend some time browsing those sites yourself. It's very easy once you put a bit of effort in to it (finding and posting charts that is) but it can be time consuming to do too often. Hope you're finding these commodity threads informative- but remember it's all speculation rather than advice so be careful.
(Gold retracing atm from highs, but only by a few dollars so far...)
phoenixrising
7th-January-2006, 08:45 PM
$540, up $15 in 24 hrs.
Broken thru $538 Dec hi.
Even my yo-yo as a kid couldn't swing like this :D
Sheesh!!!
Broken thru $538 Dec hi.
Even my yo-yo as a kid couldn't swing like this :D
Sheesh!!!
RichKid
7th-January-2006, 09:53 PM
$540, up $15 in 24 hrs.
Broken thru $538 Dec hi.
Even my yo-yo as a kid couldn't swing like this :D
Sheesh!!!
''Sheesh!!!" You can say that again!! I can't believe it, this is either the start of another strong run or I'd say it's a short term top...we'll know next week. It's the steepness of this climb up that makes me think it'll retrace.
Broken thru $538 Dec hi.
Even my yo-yo as a kid couldn't swing like this :D
Sheesh!!!
''Sheesh!!!" You can say that again!! I can't believe it, this is either the start of another strong run or I'd say it's a short term top...we'll know next week. It's the steepness of this climb up that makes me think it'll retrace.
kerosam
7th-January-2006, 11:34 PM
what if gold price hits too high? does it affect the economy like rising interest rates? will it cause an inflation?
clowboy
7th-January-2006, 11:49 PM
Just done a quick search for why gold skyrocketed in 79 and the best I could come up with was that physical demand skyrocketed. *shrug* tired and cant really be bothered researching it that much.
Anyone have any knowledge on what the deal with gold was? I would have thought gold was more likely to peak in 87.
Anyway dont really know what gold might do but the chart looks an awfull lot like 77-79.
In terms of such a fast advance, yep sure is but look at that spike in 79-80, would put the price of gold at well over $1000 per ounce, wouldnt that be nice. :)
Anyone have any knowledge on what the deal with gold was? I would have thought gold was more likely to peak in 87.
Anyway dont really know what gold might do but the chart looks an awfull lot like 77-79.
In terms of such a fast advance, yep sure is but look at that spike in 79-80, would put the price of gold at well over $1000 per ounce, wouldnt that be nice. :)
nizar
7th-January-2006, 11:56 PM
I dont think rising gold prices has an impact like rising interest rates.
People buy gold as a hedge against inflation
ie. if interest rates go up, equities go down and gold is seen as a "safe haven"
Also, with regard to theAnalysts comments the other day, about there being "a lot less riskier investments (than gold) returning 20-50%"... Im keen to find out what these may be...
People buy gold as a hedge against inflation
ie. if interest rates go up, equities go down and gold is seen as a "safe haven"
Also, with regard to theAnalysts comments the other day, about there being "a lot less riskier investments (than gold) returning 20-50%"... Im keen to find out what these may be...
Smurf1976
7th-January-2006, 11:57 PM
I recall reading somewhere (Gold Eagle?) that the major players effectively "capped" any rise on the price of gold to US$6 per trading session. This was simply the observation of the analyst looking back through the charts. I didn't verify if it was true or not. But if it was then it would seem that this no longer occurs which is a significant development IMO.
Smurf1976
8th-January-2006, 12:16 AM
Just done a quick search for why gold skyrocketed in 79 and the best I could come up with was that physical demand skyrocketed. *shrug* tired and cant really be bothered researching it that much.
Anyone have any knowledge on what the deal with gold was? I would have thought gold was more likely to peak in 87.
Anyway dont really know what gold might do but the chart looks an awfull lot like 77-79.
Was just a normal blow off at the end of a bull market IMO. Speculation and everyone got excited and the masses started buying. Like the dot.com shares in 2000 or real estate in 2003/4. Lots of hype and the public rushes in as the smart money gets out.
What happens after the top is a little harder to predict. Either it does a Nasdaq and collapses almost literally overnight or it enters a slow grinding bear market lasting years as gold did following 1979 and the Japanese share market following their bust.
I have an interesting graph of house prices versus gold prices if anyone can tell me how to post it. Basically shows that, relative to gold, houses are at historically high valuations with the rising trend having broken. So gold is now performing better than houses.
Anyone have any knowledge on what the deal with gold was? I would have thought gold was more likely to peak in 87.
Anyway dont really know what gold might do but the chart looks an awfull lot like 77-79.
Was just a normal blow off at the end of a bull market IMO. Speculation and everyone got excited and the masses started buying. Like the dot.com shares in 2000 or real estate in 2003/4. Lots of hype and the public rushes in as the smart money gets out.
What happens after the top is a little harder to predict. Either it does a Nasdaq and collapses almost literally overnight or it enters a slow grinding bear market lasting years as gold did following 1979 and the Japanese share market following their bust.
I have an interesting graph of house prices versus gold prices if anyone can tell me how to post it. Basically shows that, relative to gold, houses are at historically high valuations with the rising trend having broken. So gold is now performing better than houses.
chicken
8th-January-2006, 11:28 AM
Was just a normal blow off at the end of a bull market IMO. Speculation and everyone got excited and the masses started buying. Like the dot.com shares in 2000 or real estate in 2003/4. Lots of hype and the public rushes in as the smart money gets out.
What happens after the top is a little harder to predict. Either it does a Nasdaq and collapses almost literally overnight or it enters a slow grinding bear market lasting years as gold did following 1979 and the Japanese share market following their bust.
I have an interesting graph of house prices versus gold prices if anyone can tell me how to post it. Basically shows that, relative to gold, houses are at historically high valuations with the rising trend having broken. So gold is now performing better than houses.
Just to say where the Gold price is heading...just read an article written by Mr fABER...A SWISS OR GERMAN WHO LIVES IN Hong Kong....and he forcasts a Gold price of $3500.... in the next 4 years...so it will be it will be down but we know its still a long position...the Asian community takes a lot of note of Mr Faber as that Billionaire has over $9 billion US under management...so who can argue the point there....and I do agree with Mr Faber ...the Chinese and Indians are all buying GOLD whatever the price is....as this is the only safe hedge against inflation.....US $$$ are just paper..and they keep printing them...also the forecast for the dow in 2006 is to 13500 that is where the brokers are picking the dow will go to....so it looks for another great year to come ;)
What happens after the top is a little harder to predict. Either it does a Nasdaq and collapses almost literally overnight or it enters a slow grinding bear market lasting years as gold did following 1979 and the Japanese share market following their bust.
I have an interesting graph of house prices versus gold prices if anyone can tell me how to post it. Basically shows that, relative to gold, houses are at historically high valuations with the rising trend having broken. So gold is now performing better than houses.
Just to say where the Gold price is heading...just read an article written by Mr fABER...A SWISS OR GERMAN WHO LIVES IN Hong Kong....and he forcasts a Gold price of $3500.... in the next 4 years...so it will be it will be down but we know its still a long position...the Asian community takes a lot of note of Mr Faber as that Billionaire has over $9 billion US under management...so who can argue the point there....and I do agree with Mr Faber ...the Chinese and Indians are all buying GOLD whatever the price is....as this is the only safe hedge against inflation.....US $$$ are just paper..and they keep printing them...also the forecast for the dow in 2006 is to 13500 that is where the brokers are picking the dow will go to....so it looks for another great year to come ;)
TheAnalyst
8th-January-2006, 12:21 PM
Just to say where the Gold price is heading...just read an article written by Mr fABER...A SWISS OR GERMAN WHO LIVES IN Hong Kong....and he forcasts a Gold price of $3500.... in the next 4 years...so it will be it will be down but we know its still a long position...the Asian community takes a lot of note of Mr Faber as that Billionaire has over $9 billion US under management...so who can argue the point there....and I do agree with Mr Faber ...the Chinese and Indians are all buying GOLD whatever the price is....as this is the only safe hedge against inflation.....US $$$ are just paper..and they keep printing them...also the forecast for the dow in 2006 is to 13500 that is where the brokers are picking the dow will go to....so it looks for another great year to come ;)
I am bullish but that prediction is just a bit to heavy for me!!!!
I am bullish but that prediction is just a bit to heavy for me!!!!
clowboy
8th-January-2006, 01:54 PM
CHICKEN,
What is his basis for $3500 per ounce?
I have read many articles that have predicted gold to go to all time highs with many over $5000 USD/OZ and one as high as $25000 USD/OZ but they rely on the collapse of the USD. I have in fact a short for a documentry made on gold (that one a film festival) showing a compelling case for gold (I would post it but im sure it is above the limit).
At the end of the day I guess it doesnt really matter how high it goes just weather it continues it's climb or not.
Would be interested to know what level of exposure people have to gold ATM (in terms of asset alocation). The "experts" are saying the usual crap......5-10% should be held in gold and at this time we recomend a weighting in the higher region...blah blah.
Myself (excluding my property - which I live in and therefore dont class as an investment) am at around 10% wieghting and would happily increase that to 15-20%.
What is his basis for $3500 per ounce?
I have read many articles that have predicted gold to go to all time highs with many over $5000 USD/OZ and one as high as $25000 USD/OZ but they rely on the collapse of the USD. I have in fact a short for a documentry made on gold (that one a film festival) showing a compelling case for gold (I would post it but im sure it is above the limit).
At the end of the day I guess it doesnt really matter how high it goes just weather it continues it's climb or not.
Would be interested to know what level of exposure people have to gold ATM (in terms of asset alocation). The "experts" are saying the usual crap......5-10% should be held in gold and at this time we recomend a weighting in the higher region...blah blah.
Myself (excluding my property - which I live in and therefore dont class as an investment) am at around 10% wieghting and would happily increase that to 15-20%.
michael_selway
8th-January-2006, 04:33 PM
Just to say where the Gold price is heading...just read an article written by Mr fABER...A SWISS OR GERMAN WHO LIVES IN Hong Kong....and he forcasts a Gold price of $3500.... in the next 4 years...so it will be it will be down but we know its still a long position...the Asian community takes a lot of note of Mr Faber as that Billionaire has over $9 billion US under management...so who can argue the point there....and I do agree with Mr Faber ...the Chinese and Indians are all buying GOLD whatever the price is....as this is the only safe hedge against inflation.....US $$$ are just paper..and they keep printing them...also the forecast for the dow in 2006 is to 13500 that is where the brokers are picking the dow will go to....so it looks for another great year to come ;)
3500 is a bit far fetched dont u think? if people area worried about inflation, wont they just raise interest rates to combat the problem? why inflate gold instead? doesnt really solve the problem?
Also Silver, is that going to do well in line with gold according to Faber?
Thanks
MS
3500 is a bit far fetched dont u think? if people area worried about inflation, wont they just raise interest rates to combat the problem? why inflate gold instead? doesnt really solve the problem?
Also Silver, is that going to do well in line with gold according to Faber?
Thanks
MS
chicken
8th-January-2006, 04:41 PM
3500 is a bit far fetched dont u think? if people area worried about inflation, wont they just raise interest rate sto combat the problem? why inflate gold instead? doesnt really solve the problem?
also Silver, is that going to do well in line with gold acoording to Faber?
Thanks
MS
In fact if you have never heared of Mr Faber..well he has a website..Doom and Gloom he is one of Hong Kongs most respectful investment adviser....check it out yourself....after all the Asian investment community respects the man...find his website or ask a broker..I have not got it on hand as I am travelling at the moment but when I am back in Australia I have his website on my computer...I shall see if I can find it.. :2twocents
also Silver, is that going to do well in line with gold acoording to Faber?
Thanks
MS
In fact if you have never heared of Mr Faber..well he has a website..Doom and Gloom he is one of Hong Kongs most respectful investment adviser....check it out yourself....after all the Asian investment community respects the man...find his website or ask a broker..I have not got it on hand as I am travelling at the moment but when I am back in Australia I have his website on my computer...I shall see if I can find it.. :2twocents
nizar
8th-January-2006, 05:34 PM
This may be the web site ur looking for:
http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/
http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/
chicken
8th-January-2006, 05:47 PM
This may be the web site ur looking for:
http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/
You got it right thats the one..looked under www.doomgloom.com but not the one the one you posted is the right one thanks nizar :2twocents
http://www.gloomboomdoom.com/
You got it right thats the one..looked under www.doomgloom.com but not the one the one you posted is the right one thanks nizar :2twocents
kerosam
8th-January-2006, 05:52 PM
i live in asia for a good 20 years and am quite familiar with the Chinese and Indian culture. I agree with what Chicken has said earlier. gold no matter how expensive it is, the Chinese and Indians will always buy them especially for weddings, dowring, birthdays or any family orientated festivals (not all but most festivals). It is their tradition (and some religions), a tradition that has thousand years of history. Jewellery stores in Asia are always stocked up with gold rings, braclets, earrings etc. Have a walk to a Chinatown or Little India in Singapore, you'll know what I mean. Furthermore, with the chinese and indians earning more money than ever, i reckon the demand for gold will increase. :2twocents
nevertheless am i safe to say gold producing and exploring companies will take the spot light in the coming months?
nevertheless am i safe to say gold producing and exploring companies will take the spot light in the coming months?
RichKid
8th-January-2006, 06:30 PM
I have an interesting graph of house prices versus gold prices if anyone can tell me how to post it. Basically shows that, relative to gold, houses are at historically high valuations with the rising trend having broken. So gold is now performing better than houses.
Hi Smurf,
I'm happy to help if you need a hand attaching a chart, see this thread for starters:
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1401&highlight=attachments. You can pm me or post in that thread if you need more help.
Also, in terms of expecting gold to skyrocket when stockmarkets fall- Larry Williams argues (via charts) that that's a myth in one of his books (one with a red cover??). The 1987 stockmarket crash didn't result in gold going to the moon. Not sure if fundamental factors (eg market rigging) resulted in it so the dynamics of the market may be different now, who knows?
Hi Smurf,
I'm happy to help if you need a hand attaching a chart, see this thread for starters:
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1401&highlight=attachments. You can pm me or post in that thread if you need more help.
Also, in terms of expecting gold to skyrocket when stockmarkets fall- Larry Williams argues (via charts) that that's a myth in one of his books (one with a red cover??). The 1987 stockmarket crash didn't result in gold going to the moon. Not sure if fundamental factors (eg market rigging) resulted in it so the dynamics of the market may be different now, who knows?
michael_selway
8th-January-2006, 06:54 PM
You got it right thats the one..looked under www.doomgloom.com but not the one the one you posted is the right one thanks nizar :2twocents
http://www.gloomboomdoom.com
Hi thanks, do u have the direct link to that Gold Article where he mentions $US3500?
Thanks
MS
http://www.gloomboomdoom.com
Hi thanks, do u have the direct link to that Gold Article where he mentions $US3500?
Thanks
MS
Smurf1976
8th-January-2006, 10:01 PM
Let's see if this works with the chart. Gold versus houses. Looks like the trend has changed and now favours gold.
bvbfan
8th-January-2006, 11:31 PM
A few people have mentioned a 2 to 1 ratio for DOW to gold so that projects a price of 6,000 on the DOW to $3,000 for gold
I think that ratio is exaggerated but could handle 10:1 quite easily
No one has ever gone backrupt holding gold, how many people have sat on Reichesmarks and other bogus bits of paper to end up broke?
I think that ratio is exaggerated but could handle 10:1 quite easily
No one has ever gone backrupt holding gold, how many people have sat on Reichesmarks and other bogus bits of paper to end up broke?
OK2
9th-January-2006, 01:21 PM
Good day guys,
I have read all the recent threads on Gold and would like opinions on the best entry method or which stocks to look out for. A work mate advised to look at Ballarat Gold! All feedback is welcome.
Cheers
I have read all the recent threads on Gold and would like opinions on the best entry method or which stocks to look out for. A work mate advised to look at Ballarat Gold! All feedback is welcome.
Cheers
RichKid
9th-January-2006, 02:20 PM
Good day guys,
I have read all the recent threads on Gold and would like opinions on the best entry method or which stocks to look out for. A work mate advised to look at Ballarat Gold! All feedback is welcome.
Cheers
Hi OK2,
Welcome to ASF, glad you've found the gold thread interesting, if you'd like view s (but not advice) on individual stocks or gold stocks do a search for them using the search tool (in toolbar above), there is even a thread on Ballarat Goldfields (http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1003&highlight=bgf)
Also read the forum code of conduct and posting guidelines asap- thanks.
I have read all the recent threads on Gold and would like opinions on the best entry method or which stocks to look out for. A work mate advised to look at Ballarat Gold! All feedback is welcome.
Cheers
Hi OK2,
Welcome to ASF, glad you've found the gold thread interesting, if you'd like view s (but not advice) on individual stocks or gold stocks do a search for them using the search tool (in toolbar above), there is even a thread on Ballarat Goldfields (http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1003&highlight=bgf)
Also read the forum code of conduct and posting guidelines asap- thanks.
MARKETWAVES
16th-January-2006, 01:59 PM
Gold ....................... SINCE 1974 ................
Where is it going ? ....................
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Where is it going ? ....................
//////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
MARKETWAVES
16th-January-2006, 02:27 PM
ANOTHER LOOK AT GOLD ...........
I believe that there are 2 types of Technical traders ....
One who buys pullbacks ,,,,, basically before a potential break out
and
One who buys after a market appears to have broken out..
-So called momentum traders .... looking to ride the trend ....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm in the first group ..... I'm looking for the dips so to speak , I'm looking for the pullbacks .
( Don’t buy break-outs , Don’t chase the market ) Accept that you are too late .
Anyway ,..........
To see a better explanation...... please go into the section in the forum called Trading Tips and strategies ..... There you will see a premise of how I am interpreting the various markets ..
or cklick here : http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1432
It's not all of it , but it is best way ,, that I have found to be able to explain what I see .
It's there for all to see....
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective .This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …
I believe that there are 2 types of Technical traders ....
One who buys pullbacks ,,,,, basically before a potential break out
and
One who buys after a market appears to have broken out..
-So called momentum traders .... looking to ride the trend ....
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
I'm in the first group ..... I'm looking for the dips so to speak , I'm looking for the pullbacks .
( Don’t buy break-outs , Don’t chase the market ) Accept that you are too late .
Anyway ,..........
To see a better explanation...... please go into the section in the forum called Trading Tips and strategies ..... There you will see a premise of how I am interpreting the various markets ..
or cklick here : http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1432
It's not all of it , but it is best way ,, that I have found to be able to explain what I see .
It's there for all to see....
////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
-----------------------------------------------------------------
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective .This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …
trader
16th-January-2006, 02:52 PM
Gold is going up to $800.00 an oz will hit this by end of this year. It will surpass $600.00 before end of Feb. Chinese are converting dollars to gold.
nizar
16th-January-2006, 07:29 PM
i agree with u trader...
which stocks do u think will benefit most from this?
which stocks do u think will benefit most from this?
trader
16th-January-2006, 08:39 PM
Naturally all proper ( once that are actually mining ) gold producers will go up. I think the most money as far as a percentage increase in their share price will come from SBM and DOM and my main pick out of these two is SBM.
I think their next quarter result will be a lot higher than forecast and with gold keeping on going up so will their share price also I can see them paying dividends. BUT then again I also see BSL going back to $9.00 and FLX to $3.00 so please do your own research before investing.
I think their next quarter result will be a lot higher than forecast and with gold keeping on going up so will their share price also I can see them paying dividends. BUT then again I also see BSL going back to $9.00 and FLX to $3.00 so please do your own research before investing.
trader
16th-January-2006, 11:41 PM
Gold now over $560.00 , maybe will break $600.00 before end of month.
RichKid
17th-January-2006, 09:27 AM
Nizer & Trader:
I would appreciate it if you would help keep this thread on topic, I have mentioned before that gold stocks can be discussed elsewhere, there are current and old threads on gold stocks. This thread is on gold, it's price trend and market dynamics in relation to those two issues.
Also, if you're going to make predictions about gold please try to add some substance to back it up rather than just giving arbitrary figures as it doesn't add to the quality of the thread. Also for others, it's not worth ramping gold as the market is too big for just one forum to affect it.
Please excuse me if this sounds a bit harsh but we need to be more disciplined in posting, one or two slightly off topic is ok but I'm concerned this'll go off on a tangent. I'm posting this here so others will take notice too.
Please re-read the ASF posting guidelines and code of conduct asap.
Thank you for your cooperaton!
I would appreciate it if you would help keep this thread on topic, I have mentioned before that gold stocks can be discussed elsewhere, there are current and old threads on gold stocks. This thread is on gold, it's price trend and market dynamics in relation to those two issues.
Also, if you're going to make predictions about gold please try to add some substance to back it up rather than just giving arbitrary figures as it doesn't add to the quality of the thread. Also for others, it's not worth ramping gold as the market is too big for just one forum to affect it.
Please excuse me if this sounds a bit harsh but we need to be more disciplined in posting, one or two slightly off topic is ok but I'm concerned this'll go off on a tangent. I'm posting this here so others will take notice too.
Please re-read the ASF posting guidelines and code of conduct asap.
Thank you for your cooperaton!
RichKid
17th-January-2006, 09:30 AM
ANOTHER LOOK AT GOLD ...........
I believe that there are 2 types of Technical traders ....
One who buys pullbacks ,,,,, basically before a potential break out
and
One who buys after a market appears to have broken out..
-So called momentum traders .... looking to ride the trend ....
What's your current count on gold MW? I'm guessing the bottoms around 250 (on your chart) are waves 1 & 2 (double bottoms) and the current impulse wave is a wave 3, no real sign of a distinct wave 4 yet. Just getting into EW myself now!
I believe that there are 2 types of Technical traders ....
One who buys pullbacks ,,,,, basically before a potential break out
and
One who buys after a market appears to have broken out..
-So called momentum traders .... looking to ride the trend ....
What's your current count on gold MW? I'm guessing the bottoms around 250 (on your chart) are waves 1 & 2 (double bottoms) and the current impulse wave is a wave 3, no real sign of a distinct wave 4 yet. Just getting into EW myself now!
MARKETWAVES
18th-January-2006, 05:21 PM
An Elliott Waves Look At GOLD ...................
Bottom Line :
Looks like we are in a basic rising channel channel formation that we all learned in chartschool 101 ...
Outlook :
Gold has broken out of a serious base of consolidation back in June, July 2005 .....it is over bought ....
( not or me at the moment )
Marketwaves is intersted in Dips and Pulbacks .........
To use the word Breakout is the same as using profanity ......
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Rich , Its good to hear that you are learning Elliott Waves formations .....
Here's something from Mr. Ralph Nelson Elliott
Always remeber it in your Travels ,,,,,,,,,
All markets move in 3's , 5's or 7's , then they correct ...
They are all fractal by nature ..............
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mr Elliott also did not use any oscillators...
(ex Macd , Stochastics, Bollinger Bands,RSI , etc )
---------------------------------------------------------------------
This is one of the most profound things he said through his unique observations of the markets.... Take some Time to find the writings by Mr. Ralph Nelson Elliott.... He created the Elliott Wave Theory and has published writings ....I tend to read only what he wrote - any other author on the subject is second hand information ...(in my humble oppinion .)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
....... These are not buying signals ...........
Do your own research , Here is my research ........
The charts by Marketwaves are simply Elliott wave-counts that are believed to be what the given market is tracing out . Wave-counts are highly subjective , and definately not 100 % reliable... Wave-counts also vary from one person to another who may be analyzing the given market and also can vary based on the time frames that are being analized .....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …
Bottom Line :
Looks like we are in a basic rising channel channel formation that we all learned in chartschool 101 ...
Outlook :
Gold has broken out of a serious base of consolidation back in June, July 2005 .....it is over bought ....
( not or me at the moment )
Marketwaves is intersted in Dips and Pulbacks .........
To use the word Breakout is the same as using profanity ......
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Rich , Its good to hear that you are learning Elliott Waves formations .....
Here's something from Mr. Ralph Nelson Elliott
Always remeber it in your Travels ,,,,,,,,,
All markets move in 3's , 5's or 7's , then they correct ...
They are all fractal by nature ..............
-----------------------------------------------------------------------
Mr Elliott also did not use any oscillators...
(ex Macd , Stochastics, Bollinger Bands,RSI , etc )
---------------------------------------------------------------------
This is one of the most profound things he said through his unique observations of the markets.... Take some Time to find the writings by Mr. Ralph Nelson Elliott.... He created the Elliott Wave Theory and has published writings ....I tend to read only what he wrote - any other author on the subject is second hand information ...(in my humble oppinion .)
------------------------------------------------------------------------
....... These are not buying signals ...........
Do your own research , Here is my research ........
The charts by Marketwaves are simply Elliott wave-counts that are believed to be what the given market is tracing out . Wave-counts are highly subjective , and definately not 100 % reliable... Wave-counts also vary from one person to another who may be analyzing the given market and also can vary based on the time frames that are being analized .....
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …
michael_selway
26th-January-2006, 04:14 PM
Hi does anyoen have a price chart of Silver from 1975 till now?
Thanks
http://img83.imageshack.us/img83/1013/gold2eu.jpg
Thanks
http://img83.imageshack.us/img83/1013/gold2eu.jpg
clowboy
26th-January-2006, 05:04 PM
there is a chart of silver from 1344-1998 in real dollar terms at this post.
Hope it is of some help
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&highlight=silver+chart
Hope it is of some help
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&highlight=silver+chart
michael_selway
27th-January-2006, 08:51 AM
there is a chart of silver from 1344-1998 in real dollar terms at this post.
Hope it is of some help
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&highlight=silver+chart
Thx,
actually lookign for nominal terms and includes grpah till now from 1975ish
Hope it is of some help
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2088&highlight=silver+chart
Thx,
actually lookign for nominal terms and includes grpah till now from 1975ish
michael_selway
28th-January-2006, 07:05 PM
hi actually i found it:
Gold 1975-2006
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au75-pres.gif
Silver 1984-2006
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag84-pres.gif
Platinum 1992-2006
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/pt92-pres.gif
Gold 1975-2006
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/au75-pres.gif
Silver 1984-2006
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/ag84-pres.gif
Platinum 1992-2006
http://www.kitco.com/LFgif/pt92-pres.gif
rederob
29th-January-2006, 10:33 AM
Trader
I like your forecasts best.
Ellioticians and gold are a waste of time - a chart shows the bleeding obvious but never "forecasts".
Gold is in a secular bull trend, second phase - so increases will now be around twice the rate of previous 3 years and possibly greater.
Buying the dips to get into gold is a good idea, but nothing beats buying the best performing stock - last year SBM, Dominion and Bolnisi, in that order.
As gold previously breached $850 and the present bull run is significantly stronger, and some 25 years later on, it would be a brave person to suggest $850 would not be achieved again - and soon.
Given that target price is $300 away from the current gold price there seems little point chopping and changing gold companies in the interim. Buy a good producer and enjoy the ride - I personally advocate OXR as the "safest" buy into gold as it is diversified into copper, the "industrial metal".
Then buy Macmin for some silver upside.
I like your forecasts best.
Ellioticians and gold are a waste of time - a chart shows the bleeding obvious but never "forecasts".
Gold is in a secular bull trend, second phase - so increases will now be around twice the rate of previous 3 years and possibly greater.
Buying the dips to get into gold is a good idea, but nothing beats buying the best performing stock - last year SBM, Dominion and Bolnisi, in that order.
As gold previously breached $850 and the present bull run is significantly stronger, and some 25 years later on, it would be a brave person to suggest $850 would not be achieved again - and soon.
Given that target price is $300 away from the current gold price there seems little point chopping and changing gold companies in the interim. Buy a good producer and enjoy the ride - I personally advocate OXR as the "safest" buy into gold as it is diversified into copper, the "industrial metal".
Then buy Macmin for some silver upside.
bullmarket
29th-January-2006, 10:51 AM
Hi and welcome rederob
Good to see another refugee from KA coming over here :)
Does arthur know you've defected to here? He wasn't too happy after I left his site :D
cheers
bullmarket :)
Good to see another refugee from KA coming over here :)
Does arthur know you've defected to here? He wasn't too happy after I left his site :D
cheers
bullmarket :)
michael_selway
29th-January-2006, 12:35 PM
Hi and welcome rederob
Good to see another refugee from KA coming over here :)
Does arthur know you've defected to here? He wasn't too happy after I left his site :D
cheers
bullmarket :)
Hi what is KA?
thx
MS
Good to see another refugee from KA coming over here :)
Does arthur know you've defected to here? He wasn't too happy after I left his site :D
cheers
bullmarket :)
Hi what is KA?
thx
MS
bullmarket
29th-January-2006, 03:11 PM
Hi michael
KA is a stock forum I used to post at until I saw posts by a nic 'John Bedson' at commsec chat on the 12/12/2005 which led me to lose all confidence in the motives and integrity behind the KA site. I then told arthur at KA I will no longer be posting on his site.
I now only post on this forum and over at Stock Meeting Place as bullmarket. I used to post as qball over at commsec but I don't post there anymore since their chatrooms have far too much general chat for me.
cheers
bullmarket :)
KA is a stock forum I used to post at until I saw posts by a nic 'John Bedson' at commsec chat on the 12/12/2005 which led me to lose all confidence in the motives and integrity behind the KA site. I then told arthur at KA I will no longer be posting on his site.
I now only post on this forum and over at Stock Meeting Place as bullmarket. I used to post as qball over at commsec but I don't post there anymore since their chatrooms have far too much general chat for me.
cheers
bullmarket :)
rederob
29th-January-2006, 05:56 PM
Bullmarket
My altruism is boundless.
Buy gold, silver and zinc and prosper.
My altruism is boundless.
Buy gold, silver and zinc and prosper.
wayneL
31st-January-2006, 06:51 AM
Gold- triangle breakout.
I'll take any excuse to go long :D
http://lingrove.blogspot.com/2006/01/im-holding-gold-overnight.html
I'll take any excuse to go long :D
http://lingrove.blogspot.com/2006/01/im-holding-gold-overnight.html
RichKid
31st-January-2006, 10:17 AM
An Elliott Waves Look At GOLD ...................
Bottom Line :
Looks like we are in a basic rising channel channel formation that we all learned in chartschool 101 ...
Outlook :
Gold has broken out of a serious base of consolidation back in June, July 2005 .....it is over bought ....
( not or me at the moment )
Marketwaves is intersted in Dips and Pulbacks .........
To use the word Breakout is the same as using profanity ......
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Rich , Its good to hear that you are learning Elliott Waves formations .....
Here's something from Mr. Ralph Nelson Elliott
Always remeber it in your Travels ,,,,,,,,,
All markets move in 3's , 5's or 7's , then they correct ...
They are all fractal by nature ..............
---------------------
Nice charts again Markets, especially the last two, thanks for the tips too, not sure what you mean by '3's, 5's or 7's ' but I'll try to get my head around it, I thought the idea was five waves up punctuated by 3 corrective waves down...must read more.
Eitherway gold is confounding me atm, looks strong but like you I'd prefer to buy on a correction too. Do you think it'll be worth opening a thread on EW basics, maybe 'MW's EW school'? Just a thought, can go in the trading tactics forum.
btw, like your humour 'breakout=profanity'! hahaha
Bottom Line :
Looks like we are in a basic rising channel channel formation that we all learned in chartschool 101 ...
Outlook :
Gold has broken out of a serious base of consolidation back in June, July 2005 .....it is over bought ....
( not or me at the moment )
Marketwaves is intersted in Dips and Pulbacks .........
To use the word Breakout is the same as using profanity ......
/////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////////
Rich , Its good to hear that you are learning Elliott Waves formations .....
Here's something from Mr. Ralph Nelson Elliott
Always remeber it in your Travels ,,,,,,,,,
All markets move in 3's , 5's or 7's , then they correct ...
They are all fractal by nature ..............
---------------------
Nice charts again Markets, especially the last two, thanks for the tips too, not sure what you mean by '3's, 5's or 7's ' but I'll try to get my head around it, I thought the idea was five waves up punctuated by 3 corrective waves down...must read more.
Eitherway gold is confounding me atm, looks strong but like you I'd prefer to buy on a correction too. Do you think it'll be worth opening a thread on EW basics, maybe 'MW's EW school'? Just a thought, can go in the trading tactics forum.
btw, like your humour 'breakout=profanity'! hahaha
RichKid
31st-January-2006, 10:20 AM
Posters, just a reminder to keep threads on topic as mentioned before. Off topic threads will be deleted or edited without notice in future. Please search the forums for existing threads first or browse through the current thread to get the gist of what the thread is about. Thanks!
rederob
31st-January-2006, 01:21 PM
Gold is heading first to its previous high around th $850 mark.
Then it will breach $1000.
Then it will breach $2000.
Thereafter taxidrivers will have bought in and it will be time to sell.
$850 will be reached sometime in 2007 and $1000 in 2008.
My forecasts are guaranteed 100% accurate today, but I cannot say that gold has any respect for them thereafter.
More seriously, I note some people wanting to actively "trade" gold shares (futures is a different kettle of fish).
Trading was fine in the first leg from 2002 to late 2005.
If your risk tolerance is exceptional, it will fine over the coming years.
However, we are now entering a much more volatile market for gold and there will be sizable swings each way - more so than there were in the previous 3-4 years.
I believe the best advice is to reasearch a major low cost producer that is significantly unhedged, and hold for at least 12 months. You will be surprised at your gains.
Then it will breach $1000.
Then it will breach $2000.
Thereafter taxidrivers will have bought in and it will be time to sell.
$850 will be reached sometime in 2007 and $1000 in 2008.
My forecasts are guaranteed 100% accurate today, but I cannot say that gold has any respect for them thereafter.
More seriously, I note some people wanting to actively "trade" gold shares (futures is a different kettle of fish).
Trading was fine in the first leg from 2002 to late 2005.
If your risk tolerance is exceptional, it will fine over the coming years.
However, we are now entering a much more volatile market for gold and there will be sizable swings each way - more so than there were in the previous 3-4 years.
I believe the best advice is to reasearch a major low cost producer that is significantly unhedged, and hold for at least 12 months. You will be surprised at your gains.
RichKid
31st-January-2006, 01:52 PM
Gold is heading first to its previous high around th $850 mark.
Then it will breach $1000.
Then it will breach $2000.
Rederob, I'm afraid you're going to have to improve on statements of that nature. Please try to add some basis and substance and avoid ramping. How can anyone say gold 'will' go that high unless they have complete control over it? I think you've got a bit excited here, maybe a bit of a breather will do you good.
If you want to discuss gold stocks there are plenty of threads on it. Use the search tool.
We need to preserve the quality of posts on this forum, please read the forum code of conduct and posting guidelines. This forum does not suit everyone so see if you agree with the our rules before continuing, I hope you are able to stay.
Then it will breach $1000.
Then it will breach $2000.
Rederob, I'm afraid you're going to have to improve on statements of that nature. Please try to add some basis and substance and avoid ramping. How can anyone say gold 'will' go that high unless they have complete control over it? I think you've got a bit excited here, maybe a bit of a breather will do you good.
If you want to discuss gold stocks there are plenty of threads on it. Use the search tool.
We need to preserve the quality of posts on this forum, please read the forum code of conduct and posting guidelines. This forum does not suit everyone so see if you agree with the our rules before continuing, I hope you are able to stay.
rederob
1st-February-2006, 07:53 AM
RichKid
If you have evidence to the contrary I would welcome a debate.
The fact is that every time anyone posts a forward view it is likely to be wrong.
The more into the future that view, the more likely it will be wrong.
2 months ago gold was about $500 and today it is almost $70 higher. Extrapolating this rate of increase gives us gold at about $900 by the end of 2006. But that is ramping!
4 months ago gold was about $100 less than today, so that only gives us gold at around $850 by year's end.
6 months ago gold was about $130 less than today, giving us a gold price over $800 by year's end.
The questions all investors need to ask is if the past 6 months represent the prevailing trend, the past 4, the past 2, or none of the above.
The undeniable fact is that on "recent" trend there is absolutely nothing stopping gold being over $800 by the end of this year.
Accordingly, my suggestion/statement/forecast that gold would be $850 some time in 2007 is extremely conservative.
By the way, if you believe it unlikely that such a strong trend could eventuate for gold in 12 months, ask why copper rose well over 50 in price last year alone - in defiance of almost every specialist metals forecaster in the previous year.
If you want more "quality" I will return and dazzle with more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. Unfortunately some of these suggest gold will be well over $3000 but I am not so sure!
If you have evidence to the contrary I would welcome a debate.
The fact is that every time anyone posts a forward view it is likely to be wrong.
The more into the future that view, the more likely it will be wrong.
2 months ago gold was about $500 and today it is almost $70 higher. Extrapolating this rate of increase gives us gold at about $900 by the end of 2006. But that is ramping!
4 months ago gold was about $100 less than today, so that only gives us gold at around $850 by year's end.
6 months ago gold was about $130 less than today, giving us a gold price over $800 by year's end.
The questions all investors need to ask is if the past 6 months represent the prevailing trend, the past 4, the past 2, or none of the above.
The undeniable fact is that on "recent" trend there is absolutely nothing stopping gold being over $800 by the end of this year.
Accordingly, my suggestion/statement/forecast that gold would be $850 some time in 2007 is extremely conservative.
By the way, if you believe it unlikely that such a strong trend could eventuate for gold in 12 months, ask why copper rose well over 50 in price last year alone - in defiance of almost every specialist metals forecaster in the previous year.
If you want more "quality" I will return and dazzle with more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. Unfortunately some of these suggest gold will be well over $3000 but I am not so sure!
wayneL
1st-February-2006, 08:10 AM
If you want more "quality" I will return and dazzle with more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. Unfortunately some of these suggest gold will be well over $3000 but I am not so sure!
We'd look forward to that....and thats all we ask for when posting price projections.
Looking forward to it.
We'd look forward to that....and thats all we ask for when posting price projections.
Looking forward to it.
bullmarket
1st-February-2006, 08:26 AM
Hi RichKid
I tend to agree with you.
After I posted on the KA chat forum that I will no longer be posting there after comments about pumping and dumping by a nic 'John Bedson' on 12/12/2005 over at commsec's chatroom, I received an email from an email address containing 'rederob' in it asking me to come back. I'm not saying rederob is 'John Bedson' as rederob gave a different name in his email to me, but they both posted on the KA site.
But I haven't and won't be going back there as the pump and dump comments led me to lose all confidence in the motives and integrity behind that chat forum.
I suppose the common sense bottom line, especially for newbies to chat forums, is to beware of claims/predictions etc that are not accompanied with verifiable info to support the predictions and to question anything that appears suspicious.
cheers
bullmarket :)
I tend to agree with you.
After I posted on the KA chat forum that I will no longer be posting there after comments about pumping and dumping by a nic 'John Bedson' on 12/12/2005 over at commsec's chatroom, I received an email from an email address containing 'rederob' in it asking me to come back. I'm not saying rederob is 'John Bedson' as rederob gave a different name in his email to me, but they both posted on the KA site.
But I haven't and won't be going back there as the pump and dump comments led me to lose all confidence in the motives and integrity behind that chat forum.
I suppose the common sense bottom line, especially for newbies to chat forums, is to beware of claims/predictions etc that are not accompanied with verifiable info to support the predictions and to question anything that appears suspicious.
cheers
bullmarket :)
rederob
1st-February-2006, 03:47 PM
Bullmarket.
John Bedson and rederob (ie, me) are 2 different people in real life - I have never met John, but I have posted and may continue to post on Bedson's site.
Pumping and dumping "gold" is an interesting concept as very few Australians trade in the gold markets - typically "futures": Australian equities is a different kettle of fish.
My post of 12.21pm yesterday was initially tongue in cheek, and then got to the more serious side of "trading". Carefully read what I said "more seriously" in that post and tell me if there is anything you would dispute.
I do not know how many of your readership follow the gold market, and my experience is limited to 6 years. Those that do follow gold will already be aware that there are "out there" forecasts from exceptionally reputable commentators - indeed, from folk that have made it their lifetime pursuit (readers can visit le metropole cafe website for such people if they are interested).
As for Bullmarket's advice to newbies, I say "piffle".
Treat every forecast with the gravest of contempt.
Don't look at what "verifiable" information the forecaster has presented as gospel - treat it all as unsubstantiated, unmitigated nonsense until you can say you have any confidence in it.
There is no substitute for doing your own research and coming to your own understanding - even if you do not get it right first time round (that’s why forums are so good)!
I have asked RichKid to present some/any reason as to why my unsubstantiated forecasts may be wrong, and I hope he can come up with something.
You see, the gold market is extremely complex, possibly even "manipulated", and despite attempts by many to talk down the gold price in recent years, it has risen.
Whenever it rises you will see mainstream commentators talk about people "flocking to gold as a safe haven", or as a "hedge against inflation", or some other pathetic reason they quickly drag up to justify the changed prices. Read more widely and you may learn that same event was due simply to short covering on the futures market, or a range of complex technical factors that required larger trading houses - often called "funds" - to adjust their exposure to gold. For example, the fund may have a large position in euros and be able to mitigate it by buying cheaper gold due to USD/euro exchange rate fluctuations.
I do not deny that gold has safe haven appeal, and I agree that it is an excellent hedge to inflation. But it is simplistic to use these market forces to explain volatile price movements when they occur.
Bullmarket, it's about time you put the KA incident behind you and moved on to focus on the theme of this thread. It is a theme I have a strong interest in. It is also one I enjoy most where people disagree and can substantiate the basis of their contention. While I applaud the anti-ramping sentiment of this forum, it behoves the anti-rampers to offer a counter.
Predictions of impending glom and doom are just as harmful as the euberant indulgences of erstwhile goldbugs.
John Bedson and rederob (ie, me) are 2 different people in real life - I have never met John, but I have posted and may continue to post on Bedson's site.
Pumping and dumping "gold" is an interesting concept as very few Australians trade in the gold markets - typically "futures": Australian equities is a different kettle of fish.
My post of 12.21pm yesterday was initially tongue in cheek, and then got to the more serious side of "trading". Carefully read what I said "more seriously" in that post and tell me if there is anything you would dispute.
I do not know how many of your readership follow the gold market, and my experience is limited to 6 years. Those that do follow gold will already be aware that there are "out there" forecasts from exceptionally reputable commentators - indeed, from folk that have made it their lifetime pursuit (readers can visit le metropole cafe website for such people if they are interested).
As for Bullmarket's advice to newbies, I say "piffle".
Treat every forecast with the gravest of contempt.
Don't look at what "verifiable" information the forecaster has presented as gospel - treat it all as unsubstantiated, unmitigated nonsense until you can say you have any confidence in it.
There is no substitute for doing your own research and coming to your own understanding - even if you do not get it right first time round (that’s why forums are so good)!
I have asked RichKid to present some/any reason as to why my unsubstantiated forecasts may be wrong, and I hope he can come up with something.
You see, the gold market is extremely complex, possibly even "manipulated", and despite attempts by many to talk down the gold price in recent years, it has risen.
Whenever it rises you will see mainstream commentators talk about people "flocking to gold as a safe haven", or as a "hedge against inflation", or some other pathetic reason they quickly drag up to justify the changed prices. Read more widely and you may learn that same event was due simply to short covering on the futures market, or a range of complex technical factors that required larger trading houses - often called "funds" - to adjust their exposure to gold. For example, the fund may have a large position in euros and be able to mitigate it by buying cheaper gold due to USD/euro exchange rate fluctuations.
I do not deny that gold has safe haven appeal, and I agree that it is an excellent hedge to inflation. But it is simplistic to use these market forces to explain volatile price movements when they occur.
Bullmarket, it's about time you put the KA incident behind you and moved on to focus on the theme of this thread. It is a theme I have a strong interest in. It is also one I enjoy most where people disagree and can substantiate the basis of their contention. While I applaud the anti-ramping sentiment of this forum, it behoves the anti-rampers to offer a counter.
Predictions of impending glom and doom are just as harmful as the euberant indulgences of erstwhile goldbugs.
bullmarket
1st-February-2006, 04:21 PM
no problem Rob :)
My earlier post today was simply agreeing with RichKid's post and giving my reasons why....I don't see any problem with that.
Re your comment below in reply to RichKid and Wayne's reply to your post I, like them, am still waiting to see what you can come up with as you offered. So far I haven't seen anything from you and so I will continue to be suspicious and question anything I feel is not clear as I see fit with no consideration for what you think as I and everyone else is 100% entitled to do if they choose...but that is just me....if you don't like it...tough...I'm not going to change :)
Originally Posted by rederob
If you want more "quality" I will return and dazzle with more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. Unfortunately some of these suggest gold will be well over $3000 but I am not so sure!
We'd look forward to that....and thats all we ask for when posting price projections.
Looking forward to it.
I'm not going to waste time arguing with you...I will just continue to call things as I see them and I await with interest with RichKid and Wayne to see what "more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. " you can come up with as you offered.
Good luck with your trading :)
bullmarket
My earlier post today was simply agreeing with RichKid's post and giving my reasons why....I don't see any problem with that.
Re your comment below in reply to RichKid and Wayne's reply to your post I, like them, am still waiting to see what you can come up with as you offered. So far I haven't seen anything from you and so I will continue to be suspicious and question anything I feel is not clear as I see fit with no consideration for what you think as I and everyone else is 100% entitled to do if they choose...but that is just me....if you don't like it...tough...I'm not going to change :)
Originally Posted by rederob
If you want more "quality" I will return and dazzle with more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. Unfortunately some of these suggest gold will be well over $3000 but I am not so sure!
We'd look forward to that....and thats all we ask for when posting price projections.
Looking forward to it.
I'm not going to waste time arguing with you...I will just continue to call things as I see them and I await with interest with RichKid and Wayne to see what "more correlations and extrapolations based on actual historical relationships between gold and a range of other commodities and indexes. " you can come up with as you offered.
Good luck with your trading :)
bullmarket
Rafa
1st-February-2006, 04:39 PM
i agree...
the more information you post red rob, the better...
the more information you post red rob, the better...
Smurf1976
1st-February-2006, 06:24 PM
When posting on this fourm my preference is to give people information or opinion, and I'll state which it is if it's not obvious, which enables those reading to draw their own conclusions in conjuction with whatever other information they may have on the subject.
That said, my own opinion on gold is that it is in a bull market. That's simply my observation based on price action and having read plenty of commentary on the subject. Up and down but the trend appears to be up.
Will the upwards price trend continue? I really don't know. There's plenty of arguments which say that it will, but nothing is certain. Many bull markets experience a major crash at some point during their run and I can't see a reason why gold couldn't do the same. But if as claimed there's limited ability for mines to ramp up production and the printing of fiat currencies contines at its recent pace then the fundamentals would seem to be favourable.
As I said, draw your own conclusions!
That said, my own opinion on gold is that it is in a bull market. That's simply my observation based on price action and having read plenty of commentary on the subject. Up and down but the trend appears to be up.
Will the upwards price trend continue? I really don't know. There's plenty of arguments which say that it will, but nothing is certain. Many bull markets experience a major crash at some point during their run and I can't see a reason why gold couldn't do the same. But if as claimed there's limited ability for mines to ramp up production and the printing of fiat currencies contines at its recent pace then the fundamentals would seem to be favourable.
As I said, draw your own conclusions!
rederob
1st-February-2006, 07:51 PM
The more compelling case would be to debunk the direction of gold: Grateful for some antagonists to join the fray!
Please do not expect me to fire on all cylinders during the week - I earn a living outside of the markets and just pop in here during my spare time.
I have attached a chart of three indexes - the Gold and Silver Index relative to the Oil Index and the Dow Jones Industrials Index - over a 20 year period.
There is a generally expectation that at various stages along their respective journeys, indexes "trend", or counter trend, and ocasionally cross each other as their relative strengths wax and wane.
This chart shows that until very recently, the XAU has been comatose. Extreme gold bugs forecast that when the Dow finally collapses under the burden of US twin deficits, the price of gold going up will "cross" the path of the Dow going down. Is that possible? One thing for sure, it is not impossible - just implausible right now!
Please do not expect me to fire on all cylinders during the week - I earn a living outside of the markets and just pop in here during my spare time.
I have attached a chart of three indexes - the Gold and Silver Index relative to the Oil Index and the Dow Jones Industrials Index - over a 20 year period.
There is a generally expectation that at various stages along their respective journeys, indexes "trend", or counter trend, and ocasionally cross each other as their relative strengths wax and wane.
This chart shows that until very recently, the XAU has been comatose. Extreme gold bugs forecast that when the Dow finally collapses under the burden of US twin deficits, the price of gold going up will "cross" the path of the Dow going down. Is that possible? One thing for sure, it is not impossible - just implausible right now!
MARKETWAVES
6th-February-2006, 08:43 AM
Gold ............... SO MUCH TALK ABOUT GOLD
THE GOLD MARKET
IS NO DIFFRENT THAN ANY OTHER MARKET OUT THERE
ITS NOT ENOUGH To understand or follow only the fundamentals to justify How, Why, and Where ......
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Markets are a battle ground beteween Bulls and Bears .
( We all know this )
More importantly.....
It is also a battle between Technicals and Fundamentals
Sometimes, Fundamentals make the market move... and Sometimes ,Technicals makes the market move .
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's a Long Term look at Gold
Utilizing Elliott Waves ................. Is it overbought ?
THE GOLD MARKET
IS NO DIFFRENT THAN ANY OTHER MARKET OUT THERE
ITS NOT ENOUGH To understand or follow only the fundamentals to justify How, Why, and Where ......
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Markets are a battle ground beteween Bulls and Bears .
( We all know this )
More importantly.....
It is also a battle between Technicals and Fundamentals
Sometimes, Fundamentals make the market move... and Sometimes ,Technicals makes the market move .
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's a Long Term look at Gold
Utilizing Elliott Waves ................. Is it overbought ?
rederob
6th-February-2006, 05:28 PM
Here's a Long Term look at Gold
Utilizing Elliott Waves ................. Is it overbought ?
Are you seeking confirmation from the charts (technicals) that it is overbought, and if so what other indicators do you suggest we look at?
If it is overbought, can you please explain why that is important?
Is there a particular implication if it is overbought, eg the suggestion that we should wait until it is not overbought (assuming it "is") before we buy gold?
Is it common in this forum to just toss up a chart and let everyone have a crack at deciphering it - kind of like the Rorschach inkblot test?
As Rafa says, the more information you post, the better...
I look forward to Wayne's inevitable response, as well.
Utilizing Elliott Waves ................. Is it overbought ?
Are you seeking confirmation from the charts (technicals) that it is overbought, and if so what other indicators do you suggest we look at?
If it is overbought, can you please explain why that is important?
Is there a particular implication if it is overbought, eg the suggestion that we should wait until it is not overbought (assuming it "is") before we buy gold?
Is it common in this forum to just toss up a chart and let everyone have a crack at deciphering it - kind of like the Rorschach inkblot test?
As Rafa says, the more information you post, the better...
I look forward to Wayne's inevitable response, as well.
wayneL
6th-February-2006, 05:57 PM
I look forward to Wayne's inevitable response, as well.
Well inevitably, my inevitable response was only made inevitable by your "inevitable" comment!!? :confused: LOL
Otherwise, no, nothing to add here....waiting for further direction from the "ink blots" :D
Well inevitably, my inevitable response was only made inevitable by your "inevitable" comment!!? :confused: LOL
Otherwise, no, nothing to add here....waiting for further direction from the "ink blots" :D
michael_selway
6th-February-2006, 07:05 PM
Gold ............... SO MUCH TALK ABOUT GOLD
THE GOLD MARKET
IS NO DIFFRENT THAN ANY OTHER MARKET OUT THERE
ITS NOT ENOUGH To understand or follow only the fundamentals to justify How, Why, and Where ......
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Markets are a battle ground beteween Bulls and Bears .
( We all know this )
More importantly.....
It is also a battle between Technicals and Fundamentals
Sometimes, Fundamentals make the market move... and Sometimes ,Technicals makes the market move .
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's a Long Term look at Gold
Utilizing Elliott Waves ................. Is it overbought ?
what does those yellow dots mean?
thx
MS
THE GOLD MARKET
IS NO DIFFRENT THAN ANY OTHER MARKET OUT THERE
ITS NOT ENOUGH To understand or follow only the fundamentals to justify How, Why, and Where ......
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Markets are a battle ground beteween Bulls and Bears .
( We all know this )
More importantly.....
It is also a battle between Technicals and Fundamentals
Sometimes, Fundamentals make the market move... and Sometimes ,Technicals makes the market move .
----------------------------------------------------------------------
Here's a Long Term look at Gold
Utilizing Elliott Waves ................. Is it overbought ?
what does those yellow dots mean?
thx
MS
Double Six
6th-February-2006, 09:00 PM
MW
do not like the look of your C wave count at all
(I suspect that you dont either)
do not like the look of your C wave count at all
(I suspect that you dont either)
rederob
6th-February-2006, 10:33 PM
what does those yellow dots mean?
thx
MS
Just my view MS, but after closely examing the yellow dots I confidently diagnose chicken pox - and a strong breakout is underway!
Rather than procrastinate with chart action, let's put gold's case into context.
If we look at the bull run of commodities since 2001 and compare where gold would be if it rose by the same percentage of each of the following commodities to date, we would find:
Silver @ 140% equals gold @ $600
Platinum @ 160% equals gold @ $650
Zinc @ 220% a equals gold @ $800
Copper @ 280% equals gold @ $950
Crude Oil or Nickel @ 300% equals gold @ $1000
Heating Oil @ 360% equals gold @ $1150
Natural Gas @430% equals gold @ $1325
So let's ask some silly questions:
Why has gold and silver performed so badly against other commodities?
If gold is overbought, what is copper, or natural gas?
Does being overbought stop a commodity from rising?
Is it possible for mined commodities to match the percentage gains of drilled (energy) commodities?
How much longer will commotity prices keep rising for?
If commodity prices stop rising, does that mean that precious metals will also stop rising?
I will answer my silly questions after I have read MARKETWAVES answers to my earlier questions.
thx
MS
Just my view MS, but after closely examing the yellow dots I confidently diagnose chicken pox - and a strong breakout is underway!
Rather than procrastinate with chart action, let's put gold's case into context.
If we look at the bull run of commodities since 2001 and compare where gold would be if it rose by the same percentage of each of the following commodities to date, we would find:
Silver @ 140% equals gold @ $600
Platinum @ 160% equals gold @ $650
Zinc @ 220% a equals gold @ $800
Copper @ 280% equals gold @ $950
Crude Oil or Nickel @ 300% equals gold @ $1000
Heating Oil @ 360% equals gold @ $1150
Natural Gas @430% equals gold @ $1325
So let's ask some silly questions:
Why has gold and silver performed so badly against other commodities?
If gold is overbought, what is copper, or natural gas?
Does being overbought stop a commodity from rising?
Is it possible for mined commodities to match the percentage gains of drilled (energy) commodities?
How much longer will commotity prices keep rising for?
If commodity prices stop rising, does that mean that precious metals will also stop rising?
I will answer my silly questions after I have read MARKETWAVES answers to my earlier questions.
MARKETWAVES
7th-February-2006, 12:25 AM
Rederob.....
I'm in agreement with what you are saying.... the problem that I have found with alot of posts is that there is no visual representation to explain what a person is trying to communicate. Looking at threads with just words all over the place doesnt really get noticed the way it should...........
There is nothing wrong with fundamental analysis
.................................................. ..........................................
Alot of what you are saying in the above post leads to fundamental thinking and analysis. Again, there is agreement here about what you are saying.
All I am trying to make people aware of is that trading is a battte ground.....- We all want to survive .....
It's not about being right all the time, it's about averages, It's about managing Risk.
The Battle is truly between Bulls and Bears and more importantly between technicals and fundamentals. Sometimes a market will move because of fundamentals or (news), other times a market will move by pure technicals with no news or fundamentals to support it.
Hopefully some people out there reading this will at least try to understand this for I have not seen the topic talked about in this forum......
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are some of my trade setups and their outcome............
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2718
I'm in agreement with what you are saying.... the problem that I have found with alot of posts is that there is no visual representation to explain what a person is trying to communicate. Looking at threads with just words all over the place doesnt really get noticed the way it should...........
There is nothing wrong with fundamental analysis
.................................................. ..........................................
Alot of what you are saying in the above post leads to fundamental thinking and analysis. Again, there is agreement here about what you are saying.
All I am trying to make people aware of is that trading is a battte ground.....- We all want to survive .....
It's not about being right all the time, it's about averages, It's about managing Risk.
The Battle is truly between Bulls and Bears and more importantly between technicals and fundamentals. Sometimes a market will move because of fundamentals or (news), other times a market will move by pure technicals with no news or fundamentals to support it.
Hopefully some people out there reading this will at least try to understand this for I have not seen the topic talked about in this forum......
--------------------------------------------------------------------------
Here are some of my trade setups and their outcome............
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2718
wayneL
7th-February-2006, 02:54 AM
Just my view MS, but after closely examing the yellow dots I confidently diagnose chicken pox - and a strong breakout is underway!
Rather than procrastinate with chart action, let's put gold's case into context.
If we look at the bull run of commodities since 2001 and compare where gold would be if it rose by the same percentage of each of the following commodities to date, we would find:
Silver @ 140% equals gold @ $600
Platinum @ 160% equals gold @ $650
Zinc @ 220% a equals gold @ $800
Copper @ 280% equals gold @ $950
Crude Oil or Nickel @ 300% equals gold @ $1000
Heating Oil @ 360% equals gold @ $1150
Natural Gas @430% equals gold @ $1325
So let's ask some silly questions:
Why has gold and silver performed so badly against other commodities?
If gold is overbought, what is copper, or natural gas?
Does being overbought stop a commodity from rising?
Is it possible for mined commodities to match the percentage gains of drilled (energy) commodities?
How much longer will commotity prices keep rising for?
If commodity prices stop rising, does that mean that precious metals will also stop rising?
I will answer my silly questions after I have read MARKETWAVES answers to my earlier questions.
Not withstanding your points regarding the fundamentals of Gold...all of which I agree with, there is a fundamental difference (pun intended) between a technical trader and a fundamental trader.
Techies may appear to dither, hop in and out, short at the wrong time. long at the wrong time, whereas the fundie has taken a position long ago and just sitting there watching and possibly adding.
Yep I'm guilty of all the above. Fortunately, we get it right sometimes. We also use the mathematics of expectancy and money management.
What this means is that the position size of a fundie and a techie will be different. Most of the folks I know accumating gold on a fundamental basis (of a similar capital) could fit their entire gold holdings in one trouser pocket (assuming they were holding the physical). That's fine, thats prudent.
The techies position size could be way way larger. For instance a 10 contract trade represents a tad over 30 kgs of physical gold.,..wheelbarrow stuff.
Not saying its better, just a different way of skinning the same cat.
Cheers
Rather than procrastinate with chart action, let's put gold's case into context.
If we look at the bull run of commodities since 2001 and compare where gold would be if it rose by the same percentage of each of the following commodities to date, we would find:
Silver @ 140% equals gold @ $600
Platinum @ 160% equals gold @ $650
Zinc @ 220% a equals gold @ $800
Copper @ 280% equals gold @ $950
Crude Oil or Nickel @ 300% equals gold @ $1000
Heating Oil @ 360% equals gold @ $1150
Natural Gas @430% equals gold @ $1325
So let's ask some silly questions:
Why has gold and silver performed so badly against other commodities?
If gold is overbought, what is copper, or natural gas?
Does being overbought stop a commodity from rising?
Is it possible for mined commodities to match the percentage gains of drilled (energy) commodities?
How much longer will commotity prices keep rising for?
If commodity prices stop rising, does that mean that precious metals will also stop rising?
I will answer my silly questions after I have read MARKETWAVES answers to my earlier questions.
Not withstanding your points regarding the fundamentals of Gold...all of which I agree with, there is a fundamental difference (pun intended) between a technical trader and a fundamental trader.
Techies may appear to dither, hop in and out, short at the wrong time. long at the wrong time, whereas the fundie has taken a position long ago and just sitting there watching and possibly adding.
Yep I'm guilty of all the above. Fortunately, we get it right sometimes. We also use the mathematics of expectancy and money management.
What this means is that the position size of a fundie and a techie will be different. Most of the folks I know accumating gold on a fundamental basis (of a similar capital) could fit their entire gold holdings in one trouser pocket (assuming they were holding the physical). That's fine, thats prudent.
The techies position size could be way way larger. For instance a 10 contract trade represents a tad over 30 kgs of physical gold.,..wheelbarrow stuff.
Not saying its better, just a different way of skinning the same cat.
Cheers
rederob
7th-February-2006, 07:08 AM
MARKETWAVES
Thanks for your reply.
You seem to be a "trader" and must manage risks to preserve capital.
I am more an "investor" and take technically unwise risks, but I acquire greater capital from working in a field that's not market related.
I am very overweight in commodity equities and options, and will remain so until I see a tsunami like event unfolding - I don't bother about the tides unless it's about adding to a position.
Over the next ten years I might learn enough to contemplate "trading", but there is alot to be learnt every now and then following a stock down the gurgler.
Your point about visual representations is valid, and I suspect most people look at charts in tandem with any decision to put money on the line. I guess I would be more inclined to "forecast" off a presented chart and wear the flak because I am trying to "predict" the market having taken a long term view. But that does not mean I cannot liquidate every position tomorrow if the global view changes.
Your other point, "It's not about being right all the time", is interesting. In the markets, my contention is that it's always about trying to be right all the time. I have no intenetion of trying to lose money - I just know that market and me will come to the occasional disagreement and I have the good grace to know that at every second my money is "in the market", the market is right.
Wayne
Yes, as folk take to skinning cats I will hunt them down and report them to the RSPCA!
I am more worried about the "pussy footing around" that's happening.
Every time I look at the thread heading, I am giving my perspective and accept the consequences.
But in posting bullishly I am hoping to entice out a bear that will bring me back to earth.
There is no point holding a bullish perspective if there is bad or contrary news around. I do not want to be that blinkered racehorse that has crossed the finishing line so wide of the mark that “I can see I have won”, but in reality was beaten by every other thoroughbred on course.
Thanks for your reply.
You seem to be a "trader" and must manage risks to preserve capital.
I am more an "investor" and take technically unwise risks, but I acquire greater capital from working in a field that's not market related.
I am very overweight in commodity equities and options, and will remain so until I see a tsunami like event unfolding - I don't bother about the tides unless it's about adding to a position.
Over the next ten years I might learn enough to contemplate "trading", but there is alot to be learnt every now and then following a stock down the gurgler.
Your point about visual representations is valid, and I suspect most people look at charts in tandem with any decision to put money on the line. I guess I would be more inclined to "forecast" off a presented chart and wear the flak because I am trying to "predict" the market having taken a long term view. But that does not mean I cannot liquidate every position tomorrow if the global view changes.
Your other point, "It's not about being right all the time", is interesting. In the markets, my contention is that it's always about trying to be right all the time. I have no intenetion of trying to lose money - I just know that market and me will come to the occasional disagreement and I have the good grace to know that at every second my money is "in the market", the market is right.
Wayne
Yes, as folk take to skinning cats I will hunt them down and report them to the RSPCA!
I am more worried about the "pussy footing around" that's happening.
Every time I look at the thread heading, I am giving my perspective and accept the consequences.
But in posting bullishly I am hoping to entice out a bear that will bring me back to earth.
There is no point holding a bullish perspective if there is bad or contrary news around. I do not want to be that blinkered racehorse that has crossed the finishing line so wide of the mark that “I can see I have won”, but in reality was beaten by every other thoroughbred on course.
wayneL
7th-February-2006, 08:00 AM
Wayne
Yes, as folk take to skinning cats I will hunt them down and report them to the RSPCA!
Well yes! Thanks to that damned Hugh Wirth, we actually only shave them and weave the fur into a backing cloth to give the impression of a true pelt. It's all smoke and mirrors these days, hey. They only let us do it in summer as well. It's really eating into our profit margins :D
Yes, as folk take to skinning cats I will hunt them down and report them to the RSPCA!
Well yes! Thanks to that damned Hugh Wirth, we actually only shave them and weave the fur into a backing cloth to give the impression of a true pelt. It's all smoke and mirrors these days, hey. They only let us do it in summer as well. It's really eating into our profit margins :D
wayneL
8th-February-2006, 02:57 AM
Well I said this on my blog yesterday:
Gold continues to taunt by trickling upwards. This has sent me scurrying to my textbooks to try and find some sort of bearish implications in all of this so I can wait for a pull back before going long. The best I could find was a "rising wedge", which is allegedly bearish.
...and then gold falls out of the sky today. Was away from the charts when it tanked so looking on, wistfully...
Gold continues to taunt by trickling upwards. This has sent me scurrying to my textbooks to try and find some sort of bearish implications in all of this so I can wait for a pull back before going long. The best I could find was a "rising wedge", which is allegedly bearish.
...and then gold falls out of the sky today. Was away from the charts when it tanked so looking on, wistfully...
wayneL
8th-February-2006, 03:08 AM
Jim Puplava had a guest on his show over the weekend, who apparently is convinced that the fed is about to unleash a war on POG.
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)
This could be the start, if he's right.
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)
This could be the start, if he's right.
wayneL
8th-February-2006, 04:25 AM
Jim Puplava had a guest on his show over the weekend, who apparently is convinced that the fed is about to unleash a war on POG.
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)
This could be the start, if he's right.
Whoa!
Just listening to this program. All gold longs should listen to this. The relevant section is towards the end of the program.
Cheers
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)
This could be the start, if he's right.
Whoa!
Just listening to this program. All gold longs should listen to this. The relevant section is towards the end of the program.
Cheers
wayneL
8th-February-2006, 05:05 AM
-$20
Ahahahahahahahaha
Pity I didn't take the short :(
Ahahahahahahahaha
Pity I didn't take the short :(
wayneL
8th-February-2006, 07:21 AM
-$24
:grenade:
:grenade:
rederob
8th-February-2006, 07:41 AM
I will be looking to buy more gold equities in late afternoon if gold holds during Asian trading, and have another crack at the markets tomorrow.
Usually only a few "sales" present themselves each year - this one is truly excellent.
Usually only a few "sales" present themselves each year - this one is truly excellent.
WaySolid
8th-February-2006, 07:48 AM
Hmm just made a comment on your blog Wayne, I see that you have already listened to Jim.
Jim recruits coherent speakers but it should be remembered they all have an angle to press. I actually really like his show but somehow always end up feeling very depressed after listening, thats what you get hanging around with bears :)
a 9.6% fall, looks like there are a few of this magnitude in the last few years. Healthy one day move.
I note the Commercials have been net short for some months in gold and silver using my look back period. And sentiment has been euphoric. Open interest almost halved today in Gold, wonder what this means?
Jim recruits coherent speakers but it should be remembered they all have an angle to press. I actually really like his show but somehow always end up feeling very depressed after listening, thats what you get hanging around with bears :)
a 9.6% fall, looks like there are a few of this magnitude in the last few years. Healthy one day move.
I note the Commercials have been net short for some months in gold and silver using my look back period. And sentiment has been euphoric. Open interest almost halved today in Gold, wonder what this means?
wayneL
8th-February-2006, 07:49 AM
I will be looking to buy more gold equities in late afternoon if gold holds during Asian trading, and have another crack at the markets tomorrow.
Usually only a few "sales" present themselves each year - this one is truly excellent.
Well if the Fed is in fact intervening here, as suggested by Bolsner, then one would expect even more excellent buys in a few days time. The bastids could even cap off the topside here for an extended period of time. It seems a bit counterintuitive in a natural market, but who says gold is a natural market?
GATA says it's been manipulated for years.
I would put nothing past "the evil empire" now.
Usually only a few "sales" present themselves each year - this one is truly excellent.
Well if the Fed is in fact intervening here, as suggested by Bolsner, then one would expect even more excellent buys in a few days time. The bastids could even cap off the topside here for an extended period of time. It seems a bit counterintuitive in a natural market, but who says gold is a natural market?
GATA says it's been manipulated for years.
I would put nothing past "the evil empire" now.
markrmau
8th-February-2006, 08:20 AM
Jim Puplava had a guest on his show over the weekend, who apparently is convinced that the fed is about to unleash a war on POG.
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)
This could be the start, if he's right.
Was it these comments about government intervention (100tn about to be sold) the cause of todays fall? How widely is this newshour program listened to?
http://www.netcastdaily.com/fsnewshour.htm look for "Micheal Bolsner" (mp3 file on top right)
This could be the start, if he's right.
Was it these comments about government intervention (100tn about to be sold) the cause of todays fall? How widely is this newshour program listened to?
noirua
8th-February-2006, 01:06 PM
http://www.aireview.com/index.php?act=view&catid=8&id=3510&setSub=1
rederob
8th-February-2006, 05:49 PM
Well if the Fed is in fact intervening here, as suggested by Bolsner, then one would expect even more excellent buys in a few days time.
I hope you are right.
I have a low-priced bid on LHG shares as I regard them as the best valued gold equities in our markets at the moment.
I hope you are right.
I have a low-priced bid on LHG shares as I regard them as the best valued gold equities in our markets at the moment.
crackaton
8th-February-2006, 07:44 PM
POG and POS look like taking another hit tonite. Good luck puntrs and holders, andother sea of red approaching
Smurf1976
8th-February-2006, 09:48 PM
Was it these comments about government intervention (100tn about to be sold) the cause of todays fall? How widely is this newshour program listened to?
Don't know how many listen to it but I do from time to time. Most of the people they get on there do seem to really know their stuff and I've heard them present both sides of the argument, sometimes agreeing to disagree on major points amongst the regular commentators and the presenter, so I don't think it's overly biased as such despite the mostly bearish theme of their topics. They've pointed out quite a few means to make money rather than just preserving it.
I've heard them mention receiving letters from numerous countries including Australia. Like most commentators I think they are better with the "what" than the "when" although in this case they could have got the timing pretty right it appears. Time will tell. :)
Don't know how many listen to it but I do from time to time. Most of the people they get on there do seem to really know their stuff and I've heard them present both sides of the argument, sometimes agreeing to disagree on major points amongst the regular commentators and the presenter, so I don't think it's overly biased as such despite the mostly bearish theme of their topics. They've pointed out quite a few means to make money rather than just preserving it.
I've heard them mention receiving letters from numerous countries including Australia. Like most commentators I think they are better with the "what" than the "when" although in this case they could have got the timing pretty right it appears. Time will tell. :)
crackaton
8th-February-2006, 10:54 PM
As a result, it was buying from speculators and investors that restored prices to higher levels, leading the broker to suggest it would feel far more comfortable with its outlook of further price gains this year if it could establish the price level at which solid physical demand existed.
They know sh!t.
They know sh!t.
Nicks
9th-February-2006, 04:34 PM
North
rederob
9th-February-2006, 05:18 PM
North
I prefer east nor-east myself as those corrections can get nasty.
A 2% bounce-back today just shows that momentum remains to the upside.
It is very unusual for gold to immediately bounce back, especially after such a massive fall.
Moreover, the signs thus far indicate the decline to be a "manipulated" event.
I prefer east nor-east myself as those corrections can get nasty.
A 2% bounce-back today just shows that momentum remains to the upside.
It is very unusual for gold to immediately bounce back, especially after such a massive fall.
Moreover, the signs thus far indicate the decline to be a "manipulated" event.
Odysseus
9th-February-2006, 10:46 PM
I am not inherently a gold buff, but I think that at present gold IS going through a significant re-rating, upwards, after a very long bearish period. Too much had been sold off by governments, and it had been underrated for too long. Intrinsic demand is very strong, e.g. on the part of Indian (and Chinese) women as well as investors, and as a store of "solid" wealth compared with the uncertainties of sharemarkets, bonds, real estate, and currencies. So, given time, it will probably do well. Obviously there are sure to be "corrections" after each new peak it makes, and the price will not move in a straight line. Silver and platinum are also essentially strong. A lot of people in the world are getting richer, and they will want REAL goods to invest in as well as various kinds of paper.
clowboy
10th-February-2006, 12:28 AM
well I dont know stuff all but...
If that was a manipulation and the Govt sold 100T of gold....
....is that the best they can do?
If that was a manipulation and the Govt sold 100T of gold....
....is that the best they can do?
MARKETWAVES
12th-February-2006, 04:53 AM
Hi there Double Six
Just wanted to post4 more charts on the posture of Gold as an update to last week.
You said briefly in the above post that you didn't like the C wave count.
Seems like you understand the waves.....
Elliott waves is not 100%........It is subjective.
Wave counts also vary, based on who is counting it and what time frame is being analyzed.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's not about who has the right or wrong wave-count .........
I'ts all about understanding and applying Risk - vs- Reward
Well, enough said.
Here we are a week later ..........
--------------------------------------------------------------------
4 chart updates
Here's a copy of the previous post to see how it all ties together.
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=10&pp=20
- Scroll down to post # 191
---------------------------------------------------------------------
Just wanted to post4 more charts on the posture of Gold as an update to last week.
You said briefly in the above post that you didn't like the C wave count.
Seems like you understand the waves.....
Elliott waves is not 100%........It is subjective.
Wave counts also vary, based on who is counting it and what time frame is being analyzed.
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
It's not about who has the right or wrong wave-count .........
I'ts all about understanding and applying Risk - vs- Reward
Well, enough said.
Here we are a week later ..........
--------------------------------------------------------------------
4 chart updates
Here's a copy of the previous post to see how it all ties together.
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2366&page=10&pp=20
- Scroll down to post # 191
---------------------------------------------------------------------
clowboy
12th-February-2006, 01:26 PM
Marketwaves,
I have no idea about these elliot waves etc.
Can you also include in your post what the waves are signalling (bullish/bearish) in your understanding. Just so that I can try to follow what is going on.
Thanx
I have no idea about these elliot waves etc.
Can you also include in your post what the waves are signalling (bullish/bearish) in your understanding. Just so that I can try to follow what is going on.
Thanx
rederob
12th-February-2006, 02:47 PM
Clowboy
It's not what's on the chart, it's what's off them that counts!
It's the "secret 5" competition.
Look for number "5" on each chart.
It's not what's on the chart, it's what's off them that counts!
It's the "secret 5" competition.
Look for number "5" on each chart.
clowboy
12th-February-2006, 02:51 PM
Meaning that 5 is the supposed price that gold is heading to?
Thanks for the reply
Thanks for the reply
dutchie
12th-February-2006, 03:08 PM
Its better to look for a new 2 or 4 as they are the starting points of a wave 3 and 5. When it gets to a 3 or 5 its too late unless you're looking for a retracement.
rederob
13th-February-2006, 07:40 AM
Its better to look for a new 2 or 4 as they are the starting points of a wave 3 and 5. When it gets to a 3 or 5 its too late unless you're looking for a retracement.
Given that we want to know where it is ultimately heading, a 2 or 4 is relatively pointless as the correction occurs at 5 - the "top".
Even then, the wave count down - usually 3 - will be lesser in intensity, implying another run north, ie another 5 waves up.
How about putting some numbers to your numbers, dutchie?
Given that we want to know where it is ultimately heading, a 2 or 4 is relatively pointless as the correction occurs at 5 - the "top".
Even then, the wave count down - usually 3 - will be lesser in intensity, implying another run north, ie another 5 waves up.
How about putting some numbers to your numbers, dutchie?
wayneL
14th-February-2006, 07:48 AM
I've read these last few posts several times now and I'm still lost :confused:
WTF are we? 5? a? 3? c? Someone (Prechter?) said that if you put 10 EW's in a room you'd get 10 different counts, plus several concussions and numerous lacerations. (Embellishments my own :D )
Anyway gold down again April contract LODed at $541.30. (currently $542.50) This is turning into a decent retracement and I'm having a bit of fun daytrading this (certainly easier than the indexes at the moment).
My baseless stab in the dark is ~$530 - $535 before we get another leg up.
Cheers
WTF are we? 5? a? 3? c? Someone (Prechter?) said that if you put 10 EW's in a room you'd get 10 different counts, plus several concussions and numerous lacerations. (Embellishments my own :D )
Anyway gold down again April contract LODed at $541.30. (currently $542.50) This is turning into a decent retracement and I'm having a bit of fun daytrading this (certainly easier than the indexes at the moment).
My baseless stab in the dark is ~$530 - $535 before we get another leg up.
Cheers
rederob
14th-February-2006, 10:11 AM
Wayne
Short and sharp corrections are needed to keep up the momentum in gold.
It is important that jonny-cum-latelys are shaken out so that their next foray will be better informed rather than crowd-following.
This has been happening for several years now and I rejoice the corrections knowing full well that the fundamental drivers of gold not only remain firmly in place, but are stronger year on year. In this regard, I expect 2006 to provide gold the greatest percentage increase since the bull roared in 2001.
At the same time, increased price volatility - as recently shown - will become a more common feature of the metal's predicament.
So too will doomsayers - anti-contrarians - start to have their voices heard more often on the premise that gold "has topped" each time it reaches a new high.
Short and sharp corrections are needed to keep up the momentum in gold.
It is important that jonny-cum-latelys are shaken out so that their next foray will be better informed rather than crowd-following.
This has been happening for several years now and I rejoice the corrections knowing full well that the fundamental drivers of gold not only remain firmly in place, but are stronger year on year. In this regard, I expect 2006 to provide gold the greatest percentage increase since the bull roared in 2001.
At the same time, increased price volatility - as recently shown - will become a more common feature of the metal's predicament.
So too will doomsayers - anti-contrarians - start to have their voices heard more often on the premise that gold "has topped" each time it reaches a new high.
ducati916
14th-February-2006, 06:15 PM
I must admit to not being a big fan of gold, but the rise in price has really very little to do with it being an inflation hedge, as gold has increased by 35% this year, while inflation is still currently circa 2%-3% as measured by the CPI.
As regards "intrinsic value" that is often bandied about, what is the calculation that you can apply to gold? It has no cash-flow, no earnings, has limited consumption and is very doubtful ever to be used as a direct currency, nor as a currency peg, for all the reasons that it was abandoned in the first place.
Gold’s meteoric rise is largely due to the popularity of an ETF, StreetTracks Gold Trust "GLD". Launched 15 months ago, by the beginning of this month it has attracted assets of more than $6 billion.
Since shares in the trust represent ownership of one-tenth ounce of physical gold, the trust is sitting on 343 metric tons of the stuff, more than the Bank of England -- indeed, more than all but 16 of the world’s central banks.
The ETF has more assets than the next five largest gold mutual funds combined, and is the world's largest trove of gold in private hands. It dominates its marketplace more completely than any comparable investment portfolio. Among technology funds, for example, no single fund is bigger than even two of its biggest rivals.
It has consumed a big chunk of global demand -- 13% or 14% of annual mine supply,” Singlehandedly the ETF shouldered aside typical factors affecting the gold market and became the big driver of gold’s price. Traditionally, jewelry demand and hedge-fund speculation were the culprits.
Bullion’s price also surged upward because gold producers decided four years ago to stop hedging their future production, or selling next year’s output at today’s price
With prices at current levels, and cost of extraction having consumed marginal profits due to high energy bills, it is quite likely that producers will start to lock in profits by selling future supply, and reinstating hedges.
If, energy prices were to fall, and remain low, the profitability of extraction would again swell margins, but, would there still be the demand?
Both factors, sustained demand for gold, combined with sustained falls in energy prices would be required to push the POG higher. Having said that, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are still bullish, and pushing their clients into gold.
Short sellers, if forced to cover, will also push the market higher.
What is common to these scenarios is that they are speculative. There are no pressing fundamental reasons (read valuation) for purchase at these levels. The horse has left the stable. If you weren't in a couple of years back, well too bad, but now is the wrong time to think about entering.
Entering on a "technical" basis is likely suicide, as the volatility will trigger those naughty little stops far too often.
jog on
d998
As regards "intrinsic value" that is often bandied about, what is the calculation that you can apply to gold? It has no cash-flow, no earnings, has limited consumption and is very doubtful ever to be used as a direct currency, nor as a currency peg, for all the reasons that it was abandoned in the first place.
Gold’s meteoric rise is largely due to the popularity of an ETF, StreetTracks Gold Trust "GLD". Launched 15 months ago, by the beginning of this month it has attracted assets of more than $6 billion.
Since shares in the trust represent ownership of one-tenth ounce of physical gold, the trust is sitting on 343 metric tons of the stuff, more than the Bank of England -- indeed, more than all but 16 of the world’s central banks.
The ETF has more assets than the next five largest gold mutual funds combined, and is the world's largest trove of gold in private hands. It dominates its marketplace more completely than any comparable investment portfolio. Among technology funds, for example, no single fund is bigger than even two of its biggest rivals.
It has consumed a big chunk of global demand -- 13% or 14% of annual mine supply,” Singlehandedly the ETF shouldered aside typical factors affecting the gold market and became the big driver of gold’s price. Traditionally, jewelry demand and hedge-fund speculation were the culprits.
Bullion’s price also surged upward because gold producers decided four years ago to stop hedging their future production, or selling next year’s output at today’s price
With prices at current levels, and cost of extraction having consumed marginal profits due to high energy bills, it is quite likely that producers will start to lock in profits by selling future supply, and reinstating hedges.
If, energy prices were to fall, and remain low, the profitability of extraction would again swell margins, but, would there still be the demand?
Both factors, sustained demand for gold, combined with sustained falls in energy prices would be required to push the POG higher. Having said that, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are still bullish, and pushing their clients into gold.
Short sellers, if forced to cover, will also push the market higher.
What is common to these scenarios is that they are speculative. There are no pressing fundamental reasons (read valuation) for purchase at these levels. The horse has left the stable. If you weren't in a couple of years back, well too bad, but now is the wrong time to think about entering.
Entering on a "technical" basis is likely suicide, as the volatility will trigger those naughty little stops far too often.
jog on
d998
rederob
14th-February-2006, 08:46 PM
"but the rise in price has really very little to do with it being an inflation hedge, as gold has increased by 35% this year, while inflation is still currently circa 2%-3% as measured by the CPI."
That price increase puts gold over $650!!!!
As for "reinstating hedges" - some producers that have maintained a so-called prudent hedge positions may lock in some high prices going forward. They will also have seen the disadvantage they are at compared to their peers, so while the analysts say this, the companies may not take up the offer.
That price increase puts gold over $650!!!!
As for "reinstating hedges" - some producers that have maintained a so-called prudent hedge positions may lock in some high prices going forward. They will also have seen the disadvantage they are at compared to their peers, so while the analysts say this, the companies may not take up the offer.
crackaton
14th-February-2006, 09:37 PM
well I guess POs and POG are almost equal
wayneL
14th-February-2006, 09:48 PM
well I guess POs and POG are almost equal
Well thats a bit too obtuse for me...I suspect it was meant to be?
Well thats a bit too obtuse for me...I suspect it was meant to be?
bvbfan
14th-February-2006, 10:11 PM
bit off topic but Ducati, I'm guessing your using the name after the motorbike maker, but just wondering if you knew where the name came from or was derived from?
Reason I ask was Ducat was a gold coin minted in Venice around late 1200's, I'm guessing that maybe that where Ducati name came from?
I'd like to be corrected if you know
Back to the subject, I don't believe the ETF actually holds that much in gold, hence why I wouldn't want to own the ETF because its only just holding paper.
Gold is unlikely to ever back a currency as it will take away central bankers favourite instrument - the printing press.
Reason I ask was Ducat was a gold coin minted in Venice around late 1200's, I'm guessing that maybe that where Ducati name came from?
I'd like to be corrected if you know
Back to the subject, I don't believe the ETF actually holds that much in gold, hence why I wouldn't want to own the ETF because its only just holding paper.
Gold is unlikely to ever back a currency as it will take away central bankers favourite instrument - the printing press.
wayneL
14th-February-2006, 10:18 PM
I must admit to not being a big fan of gold, but the rise in price has really very little to do with it being an inflation hedge, as gold has increased by 35% this year, while inflation is still currently circa 2%-3% as measured by the CPI.
As regards "intrinsic value" that is often bandied about, what is the calculation that you can apply to gold? It has no cash-flow, no earnings, has limited consumption and is very doubtful ever to be used as a direct currency, nor as a currency peg, for all the reasons that it was abandoned in the first place.
Gold’s meteoric rise is largely due to the popularity of an ETF, StreetTracks Gold Trust "GLD". Launched 15 months ago, by the beginning of this month it has attracted assets of more than $6 billion.
Since shares in the trust represent ownership of one-tenth ounce of physical gold, the trust is sitting on 343 metric tons of the stuff, more than the Bank of England -- indeed, more than all but 16 of the world’s central banks.
The ETF has more assets than the next five largest gold mutual funds combined, and is the world's largest trove of gold in private hands. It dominates its marketplace more completely than any comparable investment portfolio. Among technology funds, for example, no single fund is bigger than even two of its biggest rivals.
It has consumed a big chunk of global demand -- 13% or 14% of annual mine supply,” Singlehandedly the ETF shouldered aside typical factors affecting the gold market and became the big driver of gold’s price. Traditionally, jewelry demand and hedge-fund speculation were the culprits.
Bullion’s price also surged upward because gold producers decided four years ago to stop hedging their future production, or selling next year’s output at today’s price
With prices at current levels, and cost of extraction having consumed marginal profits due to high energy bills, it is quite likely that producers will start to lock in profits by selling future supply, and reinstating hedges.
If, energy prices were to fall, and remain low, the profitability of extraction would again swell margins, but, would there still be the demand?
Both factors, sustained demand for gold, combined with sustained falls in energy prices would be required to push the POG higher. Having said that, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are still bullish, and pushing their clients into gold.
Short sellers, if forced to cover, will also push the market higher.
What is common to these scenarios is that they are speculative. There are no pressing fundamental reasons (read valuation) for purchase at these levels. The horse has left the stable. If you weren't in a couple of years back, well too bad, but now is the wrong time to think about entering.
Well thats certainly going against the doctrine of "Gold is money". But a good and reasoned argument. I must admit to being neutral on gold as a hedge in and of itself. But one must be pragmatic, while its going up, it's a hedge. But it certainly weren't no hedge in the 90's. For this reason I agree with your point about it being a speculative move.
Re intrinsic value: I've questioned this point myself, never to have had it satifactorily answered. Intrinsic value could be deemed to be the cost of production. But this varies from mine to mine. The 450oz nugget that I tripped over while photographing needle nosed warblers (true, I really did dream that) has no intrinsic value by that measure. Besides someone has to be willing to pay that. Which gets us back to instrinsic value being what someone is prepared to exchange for it, what they are prepared to pay.
A faulty measure as this varies minute to minute, and may collapse without notice...no intrinic value there. So the value must be either numismatic (to borrow that term from the coin afficianados) or speculative.
I have the obligatory few krugerands etc but no way would I convert my entire cash to gold..no way. Others seem to be doing this at todays price...their ENTIRE savings :eek:
If things get that bad, my organic veggie patch and winchester 30/30 is a better hedge in my view.
Entering on a "technical" basis is likely suicide, as the volatility will trigger those naughty little stops far too often.
jog on
d998
This is where I diverge strongly with your views (as you have come to expect :D ) Technicals are the only sensible way to trade this beast, stop or no stop...especially leveraged to the eyeballs. Traded on fundamentals, and considering the volatility, I would trade an underlying quantity of no more than 50 - 100ozs. Whereas technically I am prepared to trade an underlying quantity of 500-2000 ozs...short, long whatever. I know which strategy, for me, would come out in front over the long haul, and by a long, long way.
Cheers
As regards "intrinsic value" that is often bandied about, what is the calculation that you can apply to gold? It has no cash-flow, no earnings, has limited consumption and is very doubtful ever to be used as a direct currency, nor as a currency peg, for all the reasons that it was abandoned in the first place.
Gold’s meteoric rise is largely due to the popularity of an ETF, StreetTracks Gold Trust "GLD". Launched 15 months ago, by the beginning of this month it has attracted assets of more than $6 billion.
Since shares in the trust represent ownership of one-tenth ounce of physical gold, the trust is sitting on 343 metric tons of the stuff, more than the Bank of England -- indeed, more than all but 16 of the world’s central banks.
The ETF has more assets than the next five largest gold mutual funds combined, and is the world's largest trove of gold in private hands. It dominates its marketplace more completely than any comparable investment portfolio. Among technology funds, for example, no single fund is bigger than even two of its biggest rivals.
It has consumed a big chunk of global demand -- 13% or 14% of annual mine supply,” Singlehandedly the ETF shouldered aside typical factors affecting the gold market and became the big driver of gold’s price. Traditionally, jewelry demand and hedge-fund speculation were the culprits.
Bullion’s price also surged upward because gold producers decided four years ago to stop hedging their future production, or selling next year’s output at today’s price
With prices at current levels, and cost of extraction having consumed marginal profits due to high energy bills, it is quite likely that producers will start to lock in profits by selling future supply, and reinstating hedges.
If, energy prices were to fall, and remain low, the profitability of extraction would again swell margins, but, would there still be the demand?
Both factors, sustained demand for gold, combined with sustained falls in energy prices would be required to push the POG higher. Having said that, Citigroup and Merrill Lynch are still bullish, and pushing their clients into gold.
Short sellers, if forced to cover, will also push the market higher.
What is common to these scenarios is that they are speculative. There are no pressing fundamental reasons (read valuation) for purchase at these levels. The horse has left the stable. If you weren't in a couple of years back, well too bad, but now is the wrong time to think about entering.
Well thats certainly going against the doctrine of "Gold is money". But a good and reasoned argument. I must admit to being neutral on gold as a hedge in and of itself. But one must be pragmatic, while its going up, it's a hedge. But it certainly weren't no hedge in the 90's. For this reason I agree with your point about it being a speculative move.
Re intrinsic value: I've questioned this point myself, never to have had it satifactorily answered. Intrinsic value could be deemed to be the cost of production. But this varies from mine to mine. The 450oz nugget that I tripped over while photographing needle nosed warblers (true, I really did dream that) has no intrinsic value by that measure. Besides someone has to be willing to pay that. Which gets us back to instrinsic value being what someone is prepared to exchange for it, what they are prepared to pay.
A faulty measure as this varies minute to minute, and may collapse without notice...no intrinic value there. So the value must be either numismatic (to borrow that term from the coin afficianados) or speculative.
I have the obligatory few krugerands etc but no way would I convert my entire cash to gold..no way. Others seem to be doing this at todays price...their ENTIRE savings :eek:
If things get that bad, my organic veggie patch and winchester 30/30 is a better hedge in my view.
Entering on a "technical" basis is likely suicide, as the volatility will trigger those naughty little stops far too often.
jog on
d998
This is where I diverge strongly with your views (as you have come to expect :D ) Technicals are the only sensible way to trade this beast, stop or no stop...especially leveraged to the eyeballs. Traded on fundamentals, and considering the volatility, I would trade an underlying quantity of no more than 50 - 100ozs. Whereas technically I am prepared to trade an underlying quantity of 500-2000 ozs...short, long whatever. I know which strategy, for me, would come out in front over the long haul, and by a long, long way.
Cheers
ducati916
15th-February-2006, 07:05 AM
rederob
As for "reinstating hedges" - some producers that have maintained a so-called prudent hedge positions may lock in some high prices going forward. They will also have seen the disadvantage they are at compared to their peers, so while the analysts say this, the companies may not take up the offer.
Of course, that may well be the case. However, if I was a CEO of a gold producer, I would be in contact with other CEO's within the industry, particularly the larger producers, to find out their thoughts. If one does, I suspect all will.
However unless you definitively know the answer, you are speculating.
The problem, being that if they do start "hedging forward production" again, that will impose very heavy selling pressure, that will not effect a "short-covering" scenario with a speculative price rise.
bvbfan
No, I do not know the origin of the "ducati" brand.
Your hypothesis is an interesting one however.
The ETF by all accounts does hold that amount of physical gold.
Although, I must admit I haven't seen it in the vault myself. The regulation of ETF's by the SEC is stringent and I would not concern myself on this point.
Gold as a currency, is a non-starter.
Gold restricts economic growth, and as a tool for commerce, is just not practical. It will never again be a currency, not even in a armageddon scenario.
wayne
Re intrinsic value: I've questioned this point myself, never to have had it satifactorily answered. Intrinsic value could be deemed to be the cost of production. But this varies from mine to mine. The 450oz nugget that I tripped over while photographing needle nosed warblers (true, I really did dream that) has no intrinsic value by that measure. Besides someone has to be willing to pay that. Which gets us back to instrinsic value being what someone is prepared to exchange for it, what they are prepared to pay.
Intrinsic value, is the earning power of the asset.
Take a simple example; a house.
The intrinsic value is the "rental cash-flow" discounted, into *years into the future. Therefore assume a 4 bedroom house, @ $110/week and 8% interest
Intrinsic value = $286,000.00 or $71,500.00 per bedroom
On that basis, what is the intrinsic value of gold?
Gold pays no interest,
Gold has no earning power,
Its capital value, like all assets fluctuates, but lacking any earning power, there is nothing to stop it falling to zero.
The entire value of gold, like cash, resides in the confidence of people believing in the availability of exchange for goods and services.
A house, may fetch 10 eggs, 1 loaf of bread, and a good massage per/month, per/room, and that then becomes its intrinsic value.
This is where I diverge strongly with your views (as you have come to expect ) Technicals are the only sensible way to trade this beast, stop or no stop...especially leveraged to the eyeballs. Traded on fundamentals, and considering the volatility, I would trade an underlying quantity of no more than 50 - 100ozs. Whereas technically I am prepared to trade an underlying quantity of 500-2000 ozs...short, long whatever. I know which strategy, for me, would come out in front over the long haul, and by a long, long way.
Gold, pure speculation.
As a speculative play, use a speculative tool, viz. Technical analysis to play in the market, so actually we are in agreement. Its just as a fundie, I wouldn't touch gold at all, it holds no interest for me as an investment.
jog on
d998
As for "reinstating hedges" - some producers that have maintained a so-called prudent hedge positions may lock in some high prices going forward. They will also have seen the disadvantage they are at compared to their peers, so while the analysts say this, the companies may not take up the offer.
Of course, that may well be the case. However, if I was a CEO of a gold producer, I would be in contact with other CEO's within the industry, particularly the larger producers, to find out their thoughts. If one does, I suspect all will.
However unless you definitively know the answer, you are speculating.
The problem, being that if they do start "hedging forward production" again, that will impose very heavy selling pressure, that will not effect a "short-covering" scenario with a speculative price rise.
bvbfan
No, I do not know the origin of the "ducati" brand.
Your hypothesis is an interesting one however.
The ETF by all accounts does hold that amount of physical gold.
Although, I must admit I haven't seen it in the vault myself. The regulation of ETF's by the SEC is stringent and I would not concern myself on this point.
Gold as a currency, is a non-starter.
Gold restricts economic growth, and as a tool for commerce, is just not practical. It will never again be a currency, not even in a armageddon scenario.
wayne
Re intrinsic value: I've questioned this point myself, never to have had it satifactorily answered. Intrinsic value could be deemed to be the cost of production. But this varies from mine to mine. The 450oz nugget that I tripped over while photographing needle nosed warblers (true, I really did dream that) has no intrinsic value by that measure. Besides someone has to be willing to pay that. Which gets us back to instrinsic value being what someone is prepared to exchange for it, what they are prepared to pay.
Intrinsic value, is the earning power of the asset.
Take a simple example; a house.
The intrinsic value is the "rental cash-flow" discounted, into *years into the future. Therefore assume a 4 bedroom house, @ $110/week and 8% interest
Intrinsic value = $286,000.00 or $71,500.00 per bedroom
On that basis, what is the intrinsic value of gold?
Gold pays no interest,
Gold has no earning power,
Its capital value, like all assets fluctuates, but lacking any earning power, there is nothing to stop it falling to zero.
The entire value of gold, like cash, resides in the confidence of people believing in the availability of exchange for goods and services.
A house, may fetch 10 eggs, 1 loaf of bread, and a good massage per/month, per/room, and that then becomes its intrinsic value.
This is where I diverge strongly with your views (as you have come to expect ) Technicals are the only sensible way to trade this beast, stop or no stop...especially leveraged to the eyeballs. Traded on fundamentals, and considering the volatility, I would trade an underlying quantity of no more than 50 - 100ozs. Whereas technically I am prepared to trade an underlying quantity of 500-2000 ozs...short, long whatever. I know which strategy, for me, would come out in front over the long haul, and by a long, long way.
Gold, pure speculation.
As a speculative play, use a speculative tool, viz. Technical analysis to play in the market, so actually we are in agreement. Its just as a fundie, I wouldn't touch gold at all, it holds no interest for me as an investment.
jog on
d998
rederob
15th-February-2006, 07:43 AM
"Intrinsic value, is the earning power of the asset."
A novel idea, totally baseless, and represented with an example that has little to do with instrinsic value.
The intrinsic value of a house is principally related to its capacity to provide shelter. You can test this notion by putting your house into Central Australia or the Amazon Delta.
Nevertheless an enjoyable post for its many misconceptions.
A novel idea, totally baseless, and represented with an example that has little to do with instrinsic value.
The intrinsic value of a house is principally related to its capacity to provide shelter. You can test this notion by putting your house into Central Australia or the Amazon Delta.
Nevertheless an enjoyable post for its many misconceptions.
ducati916
15th-February-2006, 08:17 AM
rederob
A novel idea, totally baseless, and represented with an example that has little to do with instrinsic value. The intrinsic value of a house is principally related to its capacity to provide shelter. You can test this notion by putting your house into Central Australia or the Amazon Delta.
Interesting reply.
I would disagree. Housing and its investment value is of great topical interest I suspect to many "Property Investors", who regard the purchase price and their return on capital as very important.
Intrinsic value of a "Business" is very important to myself as I invest, as opposed to "trade" the financial markets.
The calculation of intrinsic value has many varying calculations dependant upon financial inputs, and can be open to much debate. I chose the house as an example, for the reason that rent is generally agreed upon as a relevant and important cash-flow.
But lets pursue your example a little further as obviously you wish to argue extreme scenarios. In the middle of the desert, shelter will have great value, how that is measured would be by what could be exchanged or negotiated for it.
If they offered me a lump of gold, what value is that to me in the middle of the desert? Water, food, clothing, shelter, are the necessities of life, and carry the value, not a lump of shiny metal.
Therefore, where resides the intrinsic value of gold?
It resides, as previously stated in the expectations, beliefs, and psychology of gold itself as a medium of exchange.
As an interesting note, in post-war Japan, the medium of exchange was not gold, silver, or any form of metal, but cigarettes and soap.
They are easily divisible, easily transported, have practical useage, "intrinsic value" smoke the fag, wash with the soap etc and carried the same expectation of negotiating value......barter.
To exchange gold for goods and services, the volume of gold would need to increase dramatically, there are 6 billion of us now, and the value would need to drop tremendously, as for 6 eggs and a loaf of bread, what will I receive as "change" for my 1 ounce krugerand @ $500.00
jog on
d998
A novel idea, totally baseless, and represented with an example that has little to do with instrinsic value. The intrinsic value of a house is principally related to its capacity to provide shelter. You can test this notion by putting your house into Central Australia or the Amazon Delta.
Interesting reply.
I would disagree. Housing and its investment value is of great topical interest I suspect to many "Property Investors", who regard the purchase price and their return on capital as very important.
Intrinsic value of a "Business" is very important to myself as I invest, as opposed to "trade" the financial markets.
The calculation of intrinsic value has many varying calculations dependant upon financial inputs, and can be open to much debate. I chose the house as an example, for the reason that rent is generally agreed upon as a relevant and important cash-flow.
But lets pursue your example a little further as obviously you wish to argue extreme scenarios. In the middle of the desert, shelter will have great value, how that is measured would be by what could be exchanged or negotiated for it.
If they offered me a lump of gold, what value is that to me in the middle of the desert? Water, food, clothing, shelter, are the necessities of life, and carry the value, not a lump of shiny metal.
Therefore, where resides the intrinsic value of gold?
It resides, as previously stated in the expectations, beliefs, and psychology of gold itself as a medium of exchange.
As an interesting note, in post-war Japan, the medium of exchange was not gold, silver, or any form of metal, but cigarettes and soap.
They are easily divisible, easily transported, have practical useage, "intrinsic value" smoke the fag, wash with the soap etc and carried the same expectation of negotiating value......barter.
To exchange gold for goods and services, the volume of gold would need to increase dramatically, there are 6 billion of us now, and the value would need to drop tremendously, as for 6 eggs and a loaf of bread, what will I receive as "change" for my 1 ounce krugerand @ $500.00
jog on
d998
tasmanian
15th-February-2006, 08:48 AM
The intristic value of gold is in greed,social statusthroughout history gold has shown its value.egpytian/roman times etc etc etc gold was a show of wealth and power throughout history it has shown its strength.the paper US dollar its not goingto buy you food in the desert either in times of hunger.look whats happening around the world.Gold has a long way to run in such uncertain times.When it stops.......
clowboy
15th-February-2006, 09:48 AM
Both sides of this argument are good ones.
Gold does not really have an intrinsic value, nor does money.
Society's have always looked to some form of money to maintain order in the exchange of goods and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
The fact that there is not an infinite supply of gold as opposed to the infinite supply of currency is what makes gold a hedge etc etc.
Well in my opinion anyway.
Cheers
Gold does not really have an intrinsic value, nor does money.
Society's have always looked to some form of money to maintain order in the exchange of goods and I don't see that changing anytime soon.
The fact that there is not an infinite supply of gold as opposed to the infinite supply of currency is what makes gold a hedge etc etc.
Well in my opinion anyway.
Cheers
ducati916
15th-February-2006, 11:32 AM
tasmanian
The intristic value of gold is in greed,social statusthroughout history gold has shown its value.egpytian/roman times etc etc etc gold was a show of wealth and power throughout history it has shown its strength.the paper US dollar its not goingto buy you food in the desert either in times of hunger.look whats happening around the world.Gold has a long way to run in such uncertain times.When it stops
I guess you are pro-gold then.
In historical times, gold had additional utility value, in that it was a repository of wealth, banks, didn't exist, just Royal treasuries. It did not decay, could not be consumed, didn't rust etc. Therefore it could be passed through the generations.
With the signing of the Magna Carta, and the advent of laws guarding property, owned, self and intellectual, the writing was on the wall.
Hundreds of years later, gold, as a repository of wealth, became outmoded and redundant as the very qualities that recommended it historically were superceded.
clowboy
Gold does not really have an intrinsic value, nor does money.
Correct, both require the belief and faith, that, it will be accepted as a universal medium of exchange for alternate goods and services.
The fact that there is not an infinite supply of gold as opposed to the infinite supply of currency is what makes gold a hedge etc etc.
As a hedge against what exactly?
Inflation
Deflation
War
Other......................
jog on
d998
The intristic value of gold is in greed,social statusthroughout history gold has shown its value.egpytian/roman times etc etc etc gold was a show of wealth and power throughout history it has shown its strength.the paper US dollar its not goingto buy you food in the desert either in times of hunger.look whats happening around the world.Gold has a long way to run in such uncertain times.When it stops
I guess you are pro-gold then.
In historical times, gold had additional utility value, in that it was a repository of wealth, banks, didn't exist, just Royal treasuries. It did not decay, could not be consumed, didn't rust etc. Therefore it could be passed through the generations.
With the signing of the Magna Carta, and the advent of laws guarding property, owned, self and intellectual, the writing was on the wall.
Hundreds of years later, gold, as a repository of wealth, became outmoded and redundant as the very qualities that recommended it historically were superceded.
clowboy
Gold does not really have an intrinsic value, nor does money.
Correct, both require the belief and faith, that, it will be accepted as a universal medium of exchange for alternate goods and services.
The fact that there is not an infinite supply of gold as opposed to the infinite supply of currency is what makes gold a hedge etc etc.
As a hedge against what exactly?
Inflation
Deflation
War
Other......................
jog on
d998
rederob
15th-February-2006, 03:17 PM
ducati
You must be more consistent with your points.
You cannot say on the one hand that your business has intrinsic value, and then agree that gold has not.
It is true that we have adapted English so as to allow "intrinsic value" to be applied to specific market related concepts -particularly to put a money value on things.
In its purest sense, however, intrinsic value is the value something has because it is what it is.
Gold and property - objects - often derive value "extrinsically", ie from the perspective, or sake, of something else.
In any event, this does not help this thread unless you understand what gold means and/or what gold does.
To date your posts are erratic on these points. If you consider the intrinsic value of gold to lie "in the expectations, beliefs, and psychology of gold itself as a medium of exchange", why do so many Central Banks hold gold in vaults but never exchange it?
You must be more consistent with your points.
You cannot say on the one hand that your business has intrinsic value, and then agree that gold has not.
It is true that we have adapted English so as to allow "intrinsic value" to be applied to specific market related concepts -particularly to put a money value on things.
In its purest sense, however, intrinsic value is the value something has because it is what it is.
Gold and property - objects - often derive value "extrinsically", ie from the perspective, or sake, of something else.
In any event, this does not help this thread unless you understand what gold means and/or what gold does.
To date your posts are erratic on these points. If you consider the intrinsic value of gold to lie "in the expectations, beliefs, and psychology of gold itself as a medium of exchange", why do so many Central Banks hold gold in vaults but never exchange it?
ducati916
15th-February-2006, 04:08 PM
rederob
You must be more consistent with your points. You cannot say on the one hand that your business has intrinsic value, and then agree that gold has not.
I do not note any inconsistency at all.
A business has "intrinsic value" as it has calcuable cash-flows that provide the concept of an intrinsic value.
Gold, as I have consistently argued, has no such intrinsic value, as it has no cash-flows associated with it, therefore, no intrinsic value.
It is true that we have adapted English so as to allow "intrinsic value" to be applied to specific market related concepts -particularly to put a money value on things.
Correct, the language of finance. Like medical terminology and legal terminology, financial terminology has specific meaning, often at varience with the English language of day to day use.
In its purest sense, however, intrinsic value is the value something has because it is what it is.
Incorrect from a financial viewpoint.
In finance, the value "something has because it is what it is" is not referred to by the term "intrinsic value, but by the term ....utility value a very different useage of the English language
Gold and property - objects - often derive value "extrinsically", ie from the perspective, or sake, of something else.
Agreed, and that is where the argument for gold has always originated from.
That is to say from an emotional, psychological, and a belief and faith that gold will be valued as a medium of exchange at a mutually agreed value.
In any event, this does not help this thread unless you understand what gold means and/or what gold does.
Gold, is a speculative commodity, with limited use within industry, that in no way justifies the current price. The myth that gold is an inflation hedge etc is dying a slow death.
To date your posts are erratic on these points. If you consider the intrinsic value of gold to lie "in the expectations, beliefs, and psychology of gold itself as a medium of exchange", why do so many Central Banks hold gold in vaults but never exchange it?
Yes I do. Currently I have seen nothing to alter this viewpoint.
As regards Central Banks holding gold reserves, they do periodically sell off quantities, however, if they wanted to sell all of it, to whom would they sell?
The gold industry could in all possibility collapse.
How many gold bangles are really required?
jog on
d998
You must be more consistent with your points. You cannot say on the one hand that your business has intrinsic value, and then agree that gold has not.
I do not note any inconsistency at all.
A business has "intrinsic value" as it has calcuable cash-flows that provide the concept of an intrinsic value.
Gold, as I have consistently argued, has no such intrinsic value, as it has no cash-flows associated with it, therefore, no intrinsic value.
It is true that we have adapted English so as to allow "intrinsic value" to be applied to specific market related concepts -particularly to put a money value on things.
Correct, the language of finance. Like medical terminology and legal terminology, financial terminology has specific meaning, often at varience with the English language of day to day use.
In its purest sense, however, intrinsic value is the value something has because it is what it is.
Incorrect from a financial viewpoint.
In finance, the value "something has because it is what it is" is not referred to by the term "intrinsic value, but by the term ....utility value a very different useage of the English language
Gold and property - objects - often derive value "extrinsically", ie from the perspective, or sake, of something else.
Agreed, and that is where the argument for gold has always originated from.
That is to say from an emotional, psychological, and a belief and faith that gold will be valued as a medium of exchange at a mutually agreed value.
In any event, this does not help this thread unless you understand what gold means and/or what gold does.
Gold, is a speculative commodity, with limited use within industry, that in no way justifies the current price. The myth that gold is an inflation hedge etc is dying a slow death.
To date your posts are erratic on these points. If you consider the intrinsic value of gold to lie "in the expectations, beliefs, and psychology of gold itself as a medium of exchange", why do so many Central Banks hold gold in vaults but never exchange it?
Yes I do. Currently I have seen nothing to alter this viewpoint.
As regards Central Banks holding gold reserves, they do periodically sell off quantities, however, if they wanted to sell all of it, to whom would they sell?
The gold industry could in all possibility collapse.
How many gold bangles are really required?
jog on
d998
markrmau
15th-February-2006, 04:36 PM
To date your posts are erratic on these points.
Talking of erratic, in this thread:
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2612&highlight=fiat
you said:
Pray tell how wonderful that interest rate is for you during a deflationary period.
But the proposition is somewhat unclever in a secular bull market for gold which is compounding gold's value well over 10% pa.
On the subject of this thread, however, it does seem that as gold does not attract interest it would not be a good candidate as a fiat currency after all.
So which is gold a hedge for? Inflationary periods or deflationary periods?
The other things I thought I'd mention - gold actually costs you to hold it - buildings, security... has additional transaction costs - testing for purity and is bloody heavy.
As opposed to US dollars which yield an interest rate, can be transferred and stored electronically and are all the same.
Funnily, to get arround the storage and transfer problems in the gold market, we print little pieces of paper and trade those. ;)
Talking of erratic, in this thread:
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=2612&highlight=fiat
you said:
Pray tell how wonderful that interest rate is for you during a deflationary period.
But the proposition is somewhat unclever in a secular bull market for gold which is compounding gold's value well over 10% pa.
On the subject of this thread, however, it does seem that as gold does not attract interest it would not be a good candidate as a fiat currency after all.
So which is gold a hedge for? Inflationary periods or deflationary periods?
The other things I thought I'd mention - gold actually costs you to hold it - buildings, security... has additional transaction costs - testing for purity and is bloody heavy.
As opposed to US dollars which yield an interest rate, can be transferred and stored electronically and are all the same.
Funnily, to get arround the storage and transfer problems in the gold market, we print little pieces of paper and trade those. ;)
rederob
15th-February-2006, 04:39 PM
ducati
You seem to have no understanding of intrinsic value from a market perspective or a theoretical perspective.
In the fullness of time you will choose to ignore me.
You seem to have no understanding of intrinsic value from a market perspective or a theoretical perspective.
In the fullness of time you will choose to ignore me.
ducati916
15th-February-2006, 04:54 PM
rederob
You seem to have no understanding of intrinsic value from a market perspective or a theoretical perspective.
Au contraire, I have illustrated with an example, specifically the concept and calculation of intrinsic value. The discounted cash-flow, will provide you with an intrinsic value, valuation. None of which can be applied to gold. Golds capital value is speculative, and subject to endless revision based on emotional, psychological, and technical reasons.
There are however a number of models utilized to calculate cash-flows, and they all provide different valuations, hence the arguments amongst analysts.
In the fullness of time you will choose to ignore me.
Of course not, why should I do that?
I enjoy the hurly-burly of a good discussion.
jog on
d998
You seem to have no understanding of intrinsic value from a market perspective or a theoretical perspective.
Au contraire, I have illustrated with an example, specifically the concept and calculation of intrinsic value. The discounted cash-flow, will provide you with an intrinsic value, valuation. None of which can be applied to gold. Golds capital value is speculative, and subject to endless revision based on emotional, psychological, and technical reasons.
There are however a number of models utilized to calculate cash-flows, and they all provide different valuations, hence the arguments amongst analysts.
In the fullness of time you will choose to ignore me.
Of course not, why should I do that?
I enjoy the hurly-burly of a good discussion.
jog on
d998
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