MML - Medusa Mining

[crocdee]

hi all
do some research on this stock read all the reports to date. they have bucket loads of gold and silver and should have the mine up and running near the end of the year. i am very bullish on this stock tis just going to take a little time.

regards croc

[stefan]

Croc,

Considering this stock has been trading at 60cents a few months ago, what would you regard as the main reason for the pull back?

Happy trading

Stefan

[crocdee]

only 10mil tradible stock, lack of market confidence in general, genuine well researched holders not wanting to sell, not enough stock available for institutions to get involved.
read the reports they are all good
ive been in since the float and will continue to hold and buy more at opportunity great leverage with the oppies

regards croc

[stefan]

Croc,

I shall do some reading then... ;)

Happy trading

Stefan

[crocdee]

hi stefan
i know its hard to follow and research alot of stocks that one might be alerted to.
just wondering if you have looked at mml yet.
this one will take a little time yet but the behind the scene things are happening.
still very happy with my position with this one.

regards croc

[stefan]

Croc,

I have tried to evaluate this stock but I failed due to lack of data. After checking their latest news I came to the conclusion that I would have to understand a lot about gold mines and their potential capacity to evaluate this stock. I honestly don't know what to conclude out of this. They have a lot of things in the pipeline and you seem to consider it worthwhile holding. I wouldn't know how to judge it as I can't figure out what the total value of their potential projects is. It looks to me like a stock similar to MUL. Lots of potential but nothing big happening yet. I for one have enough MUL and wouldn't invest into another one.

So maybe you can give me some more details as you have obviously been looking at it much longer than I have.

Happy trading

Stefan

[crocdee]

hi stefan and all who are interested

i refer you back to my first post.
frankly i dont care whether any of you invest in mml or not. to me this site is about being alerted to good companies that have excellent potential of making money. all the asx reports are there for all to read. i am however privy to a little more background music ( like TG with mul) the source is respected as you might all well agree. it will not happen over night, the company has only been listed for 8 months but they will be mining gold within the next 6 months or pehaps sooner who knows.

i did not initiate the first post to ramp mml there is simply not enough trading stock available to the market to do so. i posted in good faith to alert all to a company that has alot of potential to make money.

the choice here is yours folks. IM IN. got in on the float @ 20c picked up the oppies 1:2 @ 1c and made a further investment @ 40c. now i wait with confidence.

you blokes can take it from here if you wish and as TG says EOM

regards croc

[stefan]

i am however privy to a little more background music ( like TG with mul) the source is respected as you might all well agree.
No offence, but I don't respect these sources at all. For now I for one have not seen anything "new" posted regarding MUL other than the usual "news about to be released according to my tea leaves" I've seen many times before. I can keep posting that myself and one day I'll be right. Seems a bit far fetched to call that "a little more background music" as you nicely put it.

I do agree with you that others may come up with interesting knowledge about a stock and I don't deny that there are some excellent picks to be found.
I just want to make it clear that boards like these where stocks are discussed, are an easy target to post for the sake of it. We've already seen this happening here.


i did not initiate the first post to ramp mml there is simply not enough trading stock available to the market to do so. i posted in good faith to alert all to a company that has alot of potential to make money. I would never have thought that you had bad intentions. I agree with what you're saying here.


you blokes can take it from here if you wish and as TG says EOMWell, you asked for my oppinion and I said that I can't give you one because I don't know enough about it. Any other answer would have been pure speculation. That doesn't mean that MML is crap or whatever. It just means that I don't have the meassures to value it.

Happy trading

Stefan

[crocdee]

hi all
MML have made a number of very positive announcements since i alerted this forum to the stock. imo this company has a big future for a long term hold.
i'm not here to ramp any stock but companies like this don't come a long to often. if you are interested read the reports it's all there the storey is unfolding very nicely.
regards croc

[stefan]

Oh I see... Sorry I didn't get it when you asked me about this stock in the MUL thread. It's been a while since we talked about it.

It's come along nicely since you mentioned it the first time! Great call!

Now that it is almost back where it was before the fall, what's your oppinion about it? Does it have the potential to break out to higher levels?

Happy trading

Stefan

[crocdee]

stefan
mml are working fast on moving into gold production all infrastructure is in place. i believe sp will be well above $1 early next year but you guys need to need to do the f/as to convince yourselves about the company just the same way you did with mul. the gold price is rising and so is mml.

regards croc

[crocdee]

hi all
first brought MML TO THE ATTENTION of the board 7-08-04 @ 33c now sp 70c and heading north at a great rate of knots for 2005. can't believe noone has bothered to take note over the short period of time that i have continued to bring this stock to your attention. i am not in to ramping as you can see by my periodic posting but i have to say that you have all lost valuable ground by not doing research into this company. they started 12 mnths ago as a listing and a junior gold producer to now moving towards being an international producer. blue sky ahead for the next few months with many more positive reports to follow. significant upgrades in their gold to come plus further positive drill results on new ground yet to be released.

go back and read the reports released to date. it is hard to get better than this.

my prediction on sp by march 05 $1 plus
the oppies MMLO also offer excellent value

i will say no more about this excellent opportunity to be a part of a young developping company.

if you don't want to invest atleast put it on your watch list and watch it all unfold in the next 12 months

regards croc
ps i have now said my peace about MML the rest of the thread is over to you guys if you want to run with it.

over and out croc[ my xmas present to you all]

[tech/a]

Hmm perhaps the correlation in Gold itself might have a bearing on what happens here.Note August Price and now-------- compared to MML chart

[ghotib]

FWIW, the January 05 issue of shares has an article about four miners it thinks are on the rise because they're "making the switch from project developer to metal producer. It doesn't refer to MML; it talks about SED, GGN, TTT, and DRA. The common factor is that they are passing a period of "construction risk" (ouch... reminds me of Chemeq) and should therefore be re-rated by the stock market.

In relation to Tech's comment about the gold price, the article uses Newcrest as an example. It suggests that the rise and rise of Newcrest is about the removal of construction risk rather than the rise and rise of the price of gold, because in Aussie dollars the price of gold "has barely moved" ($12 over 18 months)..

Dunno how any of the fits with MML, but seeing as my Shares subscription comes from this board it seems only fair to pass it on.

Solstice Salutations everyone

Ghoti

[RichKid]

Okay, been alerted to MML by Croc. Had a quick look (only read a bit of the announcementss). Can't believe the low cash cost of US200!!! very low. Also the move to producer looks smooth as all infrastructure seems to be in place and ready to go. My view on gold longterm is bullish but medium term is that gold will range trade (also note issue about rising aussie dollar and its effect on the AU$ price of gold for local miners). I think this is less of a gold price move and more of a genuinely good prospect driving MML independently of gold- although it does help. Note the consolidation in MML when Gold was rising- disengagement.

What concerns me is the issue of shares at 55c next year- I'm worried that this may pull back the share price even though it is a few months away BUT as I have only some basic knowledge about fudnamentals I'll look at the chart:

Ranged b/w 30-57. Recent activity indicates rectangular consolidation (50-57) and breakout from resistance at 57c, now testing 70c before a further breakout or consolidation IMO if the news is as discussed by croc. The support at about 30c was a good time to buy alright but now I see next support at 57c if the price falls that far.

Not sure if I'll buy in yet as I have other stocks on my list and unlike Croc I didn't buy when it was cheap, still IF it goes onto 90c/$1 it'll be a good deal. A bit tied up in other stocks atm so will watch for now for price weakness- more likely to buy options (MMLO- 2006) than MML.

THanks for mentioning this one Croc, looks like I missed it the first time. Hope my observations above make sense- freely criticize (constructively) if I stuffed up.

Also, Ghotib- thanks for mentioning the Shares article, making it to producer always results insome re-rating; that may result in another hike for MML early next year so my quip about the the 55c stock issue may be irrelevant.

[crocdee]

hi all
first gave this one out august 7-04, when sp was 33c
cant believe no-one has really taken it on board.
closing sp today 68c
sensational announcement today as with all others before.
i believe will be 100c soon
no risks here only time and patients it will happen
have copped a bit of flack from stefan and tech in previous posts, but today MML is still in upward trend and still going north.

MML is still a winner and a big one it will be

regards croc

[tech/a]

Croc.

Its holding its own since the breakout is ranging a bit though but since August a 100% rise what more would you want.

[crocdee]

tech
plenty more to come from this one.
those who do the fa/s will be rewarded just like AZR
its all in the reports no secret stuff.

regards croc

[crocdee]

hi all
md geoff davis has returned from the philippines.
more positve announcements due shortly about progress towards production.

regards croc

[brerwallabi]

Croc
Medusa looks good to me, have no spare right now so cant join you, have looked very close at it, very low cost and the worry over the government seems to be over, Good Luck nice pick.

[crocdee]

hi brer

thanks for the reply.
first put MML on the board august 7 2004, sp then was approx 33c.

this company has a lot going for it and will advance to much higher levels from here in a short period of time, and i also believe it will be able to maintain those levels.

having spare cash available to invest in an opportunity when it comes along is always a problem but not the end of the day. you can't be in them all.

to me MEDUSA is a winner i first bought in @ 20c and picked up the oppies @ 1c. if i was entering right now i would be concentrating on the oppies MMLO and at 20c maturity they are well in the money right now with still over 12 months to run.

this stock is definetly worthy of consideration imho

regards croc

[The Barbarian Investor]

Any thoughts on Harmony ??

[brerwallabi]

The following from Mining News only adds to the value of this company.
Brer

"MEDUSA Mining says it has signed a memorandum of understanding with Pyro Copper to acquire the Barlo copper-gold-zinc project in the Philippines.

The company said the acquisition, covering 4360 hectares, adds to the portfolio of projects held by the Medusa-BacTech joint venture, which is focused on projects with difficult to treat mineralisation and ores with high penalty elements.

Barlo was an open pit mine for a 10 years until 1984, during which time it produced approximately 3 million tonnes of ore grading 1.5% copper and 1% zinc.

Medusa said gold was not routinely assayed during previous exploration and mining but previous assays from waste dump samples indicate samples of up 5 grams per tonne. Mineralisation is described as Kuroko style massive sulphides exhibiting zoning in copper, gold, silver and zinc.

The MOU will allow JV partners BacTech and Medusa an Option to undertake work at the site until 31 December 2006 with a MOU signing fee of $US10,000 to be paid to Pyro immediately. If the option is exercised, Medusa, BacTech and Pyro Copper will vend the project into a new entity.

Medusa said its primary focus is still the Co-O gold mine in Dizon, in the Philippines."

[Jay-684]

I bought into these at 64cps, so so far so good! :)

by the looks of things the outlook is still good too

[crocdee]

hi all
roadshow starts in the UK tomorrow.
team will be back in PERTH march 15.
yesterdays announcement confirms a futher extension of the vein at the
Co-O mine.
everything looks very good for the future.

regards croc

[brerwallabi]

Croc
Is that your 10000 @ a $1.10, dont you think they will go higher. Jokes aside the way it is going looks like a $1.00 at easter, looks like its getting ready for a little run again.

[crocdee]

brer
mml has three figures written all over it.
very big things to come in due course.
excellent leverage in the oppies mmlo

croc

[mime]

Ok what's going on with the stock?

There is no trading. It hasn't tanked has it?

[crocdee]

MML has been suspended from trading while the finalisation of a deal with Philsaga is being completed.
it's all in the reports have a read.
deal should be finalised in about two weeks
big things to come shortly

regards croc

[mime]

So it hasn't tanked?

Thank god. I got worried when I found out it was suspended.

[mime]

ok what's going on now?

It's been completly removed from comsec. Does it have a new trading name/ code?

[Jay-684]

does anyone here know any more news regarding MML and their trading halt? when will they begin trading again?

I've tried searching here and google, as well as their website but have found nothing. I have emailed them as well and await a reply

any news or a point in the right direction would be great!

[Singh]

I checked the list of companies which changed ASX Code in 2005, MML not in the list,it should still have the same asx code.Don't have any information about the halt. :confused:

[crocdee]

hi all
there has been a few beaurocratc problems with philipinne govt but all is slowly being soughted out. the deal with phisaga will take place, unfortunately it has been a lot longer than all would like.
most of the problems have been with the use of explosives in the mine.

regards croc

[Jay-684]

any press releases/information on when the deal will be finalised and MML will be allowed to be traded again?

[crocdee]

Jay
nothing has changed since my last post except the day is getting closer

regards croc

[crocdee]

hi all
report just out
MML executes lease option to purchase phisaga's plant
must now be getting closer relisting

regards croc

[Jay-684]

good news!

what is everyones thoughts on what will happen once they begin trading again? I think given the amount of time they have been suspended a majority of investors will be frustrated and sell, so I'm thinking a fall in sp.

Will this new deal be large enough to offset any large sell off by current investors?

[crocdee]

relisting date is september 26 after placement of shares @ 60c is complete.
those that are not fully taken up have been underwritten.

once the mpsa is complete this will explode
good luck to those who hold

croc

[Jay-684]

relisting date is september 26 after placement of shares @ 60c is complete.
those that are not fully taken up have been underwritten.

once the mpsa is complete this will explode
good luck to those who hold

croc

sorry to sound stupid but what is the mpsa?

and when you say explode, does that mean you think the new deal is a good thing?

[crocdee]

mining production sharing agreement
will finalise the purchase of the Co-O Goldmine from Phisaga and allow Medusa to immediately conduct full scale commercial mining operations for a period of 25 years.
also permit further exploration over 500km2 reputadely to be very lucrative

croc

[crocdee]

ps definetly a good thing

croc

[mime]

Is the stock come back on the market and trading under a different name? It's company info has been removed.

[GreatPig]

Take a look here (http://www.delisted.com.au/CompanyDisplay.aspx?id=5291).

GP

[mime]

Ok.. So is it coming back?

[crocdee]

will re list on or before 28-9-05


croc

[mime]

That is good news. I've got a feeling that the price will drop heavily because of the long wait though :sly:

[crocdee]

mime

may pullback a little on re listing who knows however once mpsa is signed off they will be reclassified as a gold producer

mml should then be rerated and sp should move up substantialy

i'm holding at least till mpsa is finalised

good luck
croc

[crocdee]

to all those who hold

MML has been reinstated everything looks good.
mpsa still yet to be signed off.
future is very bright

regards croc

[mime]

Finally. I was beginning to think it was never coming back. Fingers crossed for the future.

[mime]

Anyone else disapointed with the stocks preformance after coming back onto the market?

[Jay-684]

sold them yesterday

the report they sent out a few months back seemed promising, although the market hasnt really reacted to it at all

[crocdee]

mpsa still taking its time
court decission due soon
in the meantime mml have already moved to being a gold producer once they are permitted to use explosives production will increase considerably

md davis is in the philippines atm

regards croc

[mime]

Hmmm.. What happened?? Alot more demand for the stock now.

[crocdee]

mime
do you hold mml
have you read the reports
another 8km2 added to their exploration ground
finalisation of mpsa still positive

croc

[mime]

I don't have Acrobat so I cant read the announcments :(

Fingers crossed for the future

[crocdee]

mime
if you dont have the basic tools for trading then you are gambling
if you have your fingers crossed then you are lucky you hold mml
good luck
croc

[mime]

I'll admit I'm gambling on this stock. It's one of my spec stocks. But I don't consider Acrobat all that important for investing.

Fingers crossed ;)

[crocdee]

i reckon your on a winner mime
it's all about knowing when to hold and when to fold
atm i'm holding

croc

[mime]

How about an update on this stock. It's been pretty lackluster. Do you guys have any expectations on this stock?

[moses]

Co-O PROJECT PRODUCTION UPDATE
The Company wish to advise that it is on track to commence gold production from its Co-O Plant in July 2006, at the annualised rate of 40,000 ounces per year.

[moses]

Up 6% today. (Nice to something green)

[ormond]

Is anyone following this company?
Seems to be flying under the radar.
Low cost high grade gold mining in the philippenes with production expected to reach 100k oz in 2008.
Drilling to comence shortly on das-agan project with cu grading 4.93% at end of hole(250m).
Any thoughts on the potential of this company as i am looking to invest some money in the gold sector?

[Glen48]

MML has gone from .950 to about 1.060 after a take over? from Hong Kong bank maybe worth looking at ??

[kennas]

Such a shame this has been off my radar, what a great recovery.

Looks like a nice longer term story with cash costs down at $200 an oz.

They reakon they're going to ramp up significantly (to 200-300 oz pa) with further discoveries but sould like a ramp to me.

A 1.00c entry might have been nice.
Or, 1.75
Or, 2.75

:banghead:

Looks costly on the EV to Oz Au comparison at $268 the most expensive on my list..

[Gunslinger]

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/18339316/mml.PNG
Significant jump to close at 7.7 yesterday (current 7.55) from low of 6.34 on Jan 6 when I was stopped out.
Not really accompanied by a corresponding jump in volume.
Anyone got any ideas on this?

I am a very green newb so any insight appreciated :)

Cheers,
Jb

[tinhat]

http://dl.dropbox.com/u/18339316/mml.PNG
Significant jump to close at 7.7 yesterday (current 7.55) from low of 6.34 on Jan 6 when I was stopped out.
Not really accompanied by a corresponding jump in volume.
Anyone got any ideas on this?

I am a very green newb so any insight appreciated :)

Cheers,
Jb

MML were issued with a speeding ticket by the ASX on the 13th Jan.
http://www.asx.net.au/asx/research/companyInfo.do?by=asxCode&asxCode=MML#headlines

Because insider trading does not happen on the ASX we just have to assume there are some very bullish investors out there driving up the price on moderate volumes of trade.

[Gunslinger]

Hmm,
"Change in substantial holding" registered with ASX today, that might explain it.

[Wysiwyg]

How is Medusa looking now, being unhedged into this financial year? Cost per ounce is incredibly under 200 per ounce which compared to present pog is massive profit. High grades above 10 grams per tonne is what keeps that cost low. Looking for best upside in goldies. Any better???

[mr. jeff]

what about TRY their cost is $0/Oz after credits? Don't know much About MML why don't you fill a lazy in

[Wysiwyg]

MML got the no vote in a big way with a new 1 year low now though it did put on some after my post. Producers fairing better in this climate? Appears to me the pog has stalled and is at a decision point right now. I'll go for two monthly bar discards.

TRY building a biggish ascending triangle.

[Chasero]

MML got the no vote in a big way with a new 1 year low now though it did put on some after my post. Producers fairing better in this climate? Appears to me the pog has stalled and is at a decision point right now. I'll go for two monthly bar discards.

TRY building a biggish ascending triangle.

Not sure about other traders but I dumped all my MML shares for NST shares..

The 2 yr low is about $4.40 right?

[Chasero]

Not sure about other traders but I dumped all my MML shares for NST shares..

The 2 yr low is about $4.40 right?

MML bounced off heavily from it's $4.40 low.

Triple bottom in and now it's at $5.50.

Announcement today after market close:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20120117/pdf/423t2zdqcrx943.pdf

Long MML as of today (at $5.45)

Took profits in NST @ 92.5 and back into MML

[Chasero]

No one interested in MML?

currently outperforming other goldies.

Break of resistance @ $5.50.

Could see a run up to $6.00 if gold holds up.

Announcement a tad conservative it appears and had little effect on sp.

[Macros]

No one interested in MML?

currently outperforming other goldies.

Break of resistance @ $5.50.

Could see a run up to $6.00 if gold holds up.

Announcement a tad conservative it appears and had little effect on sp.

Was an easy call below $5 and even better at $4.50. I see little reason for it not to go back above $7, if not again reach the highs under a more supportive gold price. The price falls didn't make a lot of sense, except for some short-term issues. MML is a fairly straight forward longer term position as they move towards substantially higher production, albeit with the one risk of operating in the Phillipines. Still good at current prices.

[Macros]

My only concern is that the lower prices are now riddled with gaps. Not sure if this is an issue for MML, but it does give me some caution. Then again I'm not a TA expert.

[explod]

Mmm

MML, in the last 12 months down 25%

Says something may be wrong.

Other better ones on our own soil in my view.

Say, NST up 250%

AYN from 4 to 8 cents up 100%

[mr. jeff]

I don't view that performance as necessarily that bad. There are a lot of goldies that have gone backwards with no great reason other than a change in sentiment.
Have a look at PRU, RMS, OGC, RED, IGR, EVN, FML etc. A lot have not set the world on fire even with reasonable projects and or production.
Whether this changes, who knows.

[Chasero]

Needs to close above $5.58 today for next move up.

Resistance @ $5.52 proving really strong. Stuck in trading range for over a week!

Fingers crossed today will be the next push.

[Chasero]

Needs to close above $5.58 today for next move up.

Resistance @ $5.52 proving really strong. Stuck in trading range for over a week!

Fingers crossed today will be the next push.

Strong volume on Wednesday @ above 1m, closing 2 days green. (it went one day up above $5.50 one day below $5.50 for a week)

Should rally to $6.00 by early next week.

Looking strong today.

[Chasero]

Anyone else holding MML shares? :o

Hope it'll close past $6bucks today..

[kermit345]

So I was on a flight home from Brisbane today reading a book tilted towards a value investing approach and I've also been re-assessing the course my own investing approach is taking. The book concentrates on low debt, high return through cashflows and share price catalysts.

Instantly MML popped to mind on the flight and I started thinking about how their cashflows are strong, they are expanding production which is the catalyst and they have no debt (are unlikely to take any on either).

So I decided to look at a really basic approach to estimating where the share price could be heading with the production expansion that Medusa plans to achieve. I based it on a gradual decreasing profit margin of 74.20% in 2011 down to a margin of 60.00% in 2016 due to extra costs / possible tax etc that may occur. I then adjusted this to 95% to approximate cashflow/share. Currently Medusa trades at approximately 12.35 times cashflow/share for FY11.

Hence I made the following projections of share price based on cashflow per share which can be reasonably easy to predict (providing nothing major goes wrong) due to the 1 operating mine producing the inflows. Note i've highlighted in orange where the shareprice is approximately in comparison to current gold price and P/C ratio (Price over Cashflow/share)

http://www.puntingprophets.com/images/production.jpg

Notice the current shareprice is very close to what i've estimated based on current FY12 estimates and current USD gold price. Note that as production increases a P/C ratio might expand as well which means the shareprice could expand considerably based on the simple achievement of cashflow expansion through production expansion.

The following chart just shows my basic understanding of some support and resistance levels that could be tested and hopefully 2,3 and 4 can be pushed through moving forward. The circles show where low volume meant a sustained push above the No. 4 resistance couldn't be achieve. The high volume below the No 1 support shows that there is great share price support that low.

The way I see it is that if/as my production and cashflow forecasts come to fruition then the share price will continue to appreciate in line with this. The main issues are having 1 operating mine and being overseas, hopefully they can remain under control going forward. Chart below shows where I think the share price could head moving towards the end of FY12.

http://www.puntingprophets.com/images/Chart1.jpg

I'm interesting in the thoughts of others, but this was just some basic analysis i did tonight when I got home from my flight. Definitely increases my interest in buying some MML shares to hold through the production expansion plans.

[skyQuake]

Crappy quarterlies -10% in LN

[Chasero]

Crappy quarterlies -10% in LN

What does LN mean?

BTW, thanks for the in-depth analysis Kermit, was an interesting read.

I already sold all my shares yesterday @ 5.91. After 11am it dived back down under $6.00 and no volume, so I did a quick exit.

[kermit345]

No problem, MML definitely has trading opportunities as it moves around quite a bit.

The quarterly obviously wasn't pretty in terms of what was produced last quarter, but if your a long-term holder its more a blip on the radar and a buying opportunity IMO. If the share price rocketed below $5.00 then there would be cause for concern however I can see the share price rebounding well if FY12 guidance is re-iterated as on target at the end of this quarter.

Certainly think $7 is a reasonable target for July/August and $8+ by years end providing POG stays above $1,600 per ounce and production guidance is achieved.

[Chasero]

No problem, MML definitely has trading opportunities as it moves around quite a bit.

The quarterly obviously wasn't pretty in terms of what was produced last quarter, but if your a long-term holder its more a blip on the radar and a buying opportunity IMO. If the share price rocketed below $5.00 then there would be cause for concern however I can see the share price rebounding well if FY12 guidance is re-iterated as on target at the end of this quarter.

Certainly think $7 is a reasonable target for July/August and $8+ by years end providing POG stays above $1,600 per ounce and production guidance is achieved.

Yep, looks like the next 2 days will hit MML hard... might hit $5bucks.