QAN - Qantas Airways

[GreatPig]

Darn.... Qantas is not playing the game ;D.

I was hoping for it to go back to the top of the channel, but instead it's decided to drop out and is currently sitting at $3.18.

Okay, so there's a head and shoulders there - perhaps I should take more notice of what I'm reading ::).

Cheers,
GP

[stefan]

While announcing record profits, the cautious outlook they released certainly gave the whole thing a negative touch. If you read their statement you feel like those "oil country" airlines will destroy anybody else.

Happy trading

Stefan

[GreatPig]

Well it recovered right back to the support line, but there was a big dip there for a while.

I think I'll wait and see what tomorrow brings now before deciding whether or not to dump it.

Cheers,
GP

[stefan]

Where did you buy it?
I for one would dump it at the next small increase. Not a time to hold airlines when fuel is costing a fortune.

Happy trading

Stefan

[GreatPig]

Where did you buy it?
At $3.35 last week.

I'll see tomorrow morning if it starts going up again or diving.

Cheers,
GP

[stefan]

Quickly went above 3.3 this mornig. Did you get rid of them or did you decide to hold on?



SYDNEY, Aug 20 AAP - Qantas Airways Ltd today raised the fuel surcharge on its domestic and international tickets by $4 and $7, respectively, because of the high price of oil which overnight topped $US48 per barrel.
The domestic fuel surcharge will rise to $10 from the $6 per sector charge introduced in May.
The surcharge on international sectors will rise to $22 from $15.

That may help the price a bit...

Happy trading

Stefan

[GreatPig]

Stefan,

Nah, I got rid of them. Overall signs weren't looking too healthy.

So now of course they'll skyrocket ;D.

GP

[stefan]

Hm, maybe you should tell me before you dump a stock so that I can get a few and profit from the rise ;D

Anyway, good choice to dump them.

Happy trading

Stefan

[TraderPro]

This thread hasn't been updated for a while so here's an update about the Qantas stock price movement (http://www.mysharetrading.com/2006/06/10/qantas-qan-share-price-chart.htm).

Basically the stock price peaked at $4.29 then in March began a long term downtrend.

[GreatPig]

Currently back around $3 and potentially forming a double bottom (too early to say for sure yet though).

http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/5596/qangp2bb9.gif

$3 or there-abouts is also a longer-term support level that's only been broken 2 or 3 times since 1999.

http://img81.imageshack.us/img81/1916/qangp3ze2.gif

As I'm learning about options and warrants, I decided to buy a few $3 Nov6 call warrants for $0.12 each (QANWOL). I think I'm the first person to trade this particular warrant - not sure if that's a bad sign or not. :o Anyway, I've only bought 30,000 warrants for a total cost of $3600 plus brokerage, so I'm not overly worried about potential losses. The two bottoms are at around $2.90, so that's my stop level.

I don't know much about the fundamentals of Qantas, other than that their costs must be increasing due to rising fuel prices, but I'm interested to see what happens.

Cheers,
GP

[Fab]

Qantas up in strong volume after announcing 26.60% drop in profit. Why ?? I was expecting it to go down ?

[dutchie]

G'day GreatPig

The two greatest problems for Qantas are rising oil prices and fear of travel. Both would currently be high risk I would think. Price has been down to $2.5.

QAN's LT share price sure is erratic.

Your tight SL is prudent. Good luck with them.

Cheers

Dutchie

[GreatPig]

Unfortunately I sold that warrant a while ago. If this breakout looks like it might be starting another uptrend though, I'll look at possibly buying back in.

Not buying anything today now though while the index is hovering under the 5000 mark in case we end up back at 4900 tomorrow :eek7:

Cheers,
GP

[GreatPig]

Yes, shoulda kept that warrant...

GP

[Fab]

Now how do you translate this red and green sticks on your graph. What are buying and selling signs ? :eek7:

[GreatPig]

The colours have nothing to do with buy or sell signals. Green just indicates a day that closed higher than the open while red is the opposite. Standard candlestick charting (although not necessarily those particular colours).

Cheers,
GP

[168]

Nothing to do with the charts but what do you guys and gals think of the 340 Australian IT jobs offshore (http://www.smh.com.au/news/BUSINESS/Axed-Qantas-jobs-to-go-offshore-union/2006/10/20/1160851097451.html) ?

Should we be happy that stock may give a better dividend or should we worry that our next generation will be disadvantaged permanently i.e. future IT jobs will be lost to our children?

Your thoughts are soughted.

[rosie]

I think it sucks...Banks are guility of the same process. :mad:

[rosie]

Qan monthly.

[Dr Doom]

My guess is that this week will make or break QAN, judging by the 3 retracements to the 3.90 area and back to resistance at 4.20. Some rounding of the top also. Not sure the fundamentals are stacking up though, apart form the oil price coming off a bit. Anyhow, somebody must like it over the last couple of months to explain for the steep rise. Time to take profits or short?.

[Kauri]

Did I just hear on the radio that QAN has recieved a T/O offer from the big Mac???

[scsl]

Did I just hear on the radio that QAN has recieved a T/O offer from the big Mac???
QAN have been 'approached' by MacBank and Texas Pacific Group, but no further details have been given.

A senior institutional trader said Tuesday there was speculation Macquarie was preparing a A$5.50 a share cash offer for Qantas, which would value the airline at A$10.9 billion.

[chansw]

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=aEZCSR29_6Oc&refer=home

Qantas Approached by Macquarie Bank, Texas Pacific (Update2)

By Vesna Poljak

Nov. 22 (Bloomberg) -- Qantas Airways Ltd., Australia's biggest airline, received a takeover approach from Macquarie Bank Ltd. and Texas Pacific Group, sparking a 16 percent gain in its shares.

``The approach is confidential and incomplete,'' Sydney-based Qantas said in a statement today. The biggest gain in the share price in 5 1/2 years lifted the airline's market value to A$10 billion ($7.7 billion).

An offer for Qantas would follow other bids by Macquarie Bank for high-profile assets, including the London Stock Exchange and the Indiana Toll Road. Funds the bank manages own assets include Sydney airport.

``For Macquarie there's obviously a cross-interest in that they also manage airports, including Sydney,'' said Ian Thomas, a senior consultant at the Centre for Asia-Pacific Aviation in Sydney. ``For Qantas, it may provide them with a way of accessing more foreign capital.''

An offer would have to be structured to overcome government- imposed limits on Qantas, restricting any single investor to a 25 percent stake, and capping combined foreign investment at 49 percent.

Matthew Russell, a spokesman for Sydney-based Macquarie Bank, the nation's biggest securities firm, didn't immediately return a call seeking comment.

Qantas Chief Executive Officer Geoff Dixon has forecast the airline's profit will increase this year, even as his fuel bill rises to a record, as he cuts jobs and adds new customers with discount carrier Jetstar.

The airline's fuel bill will rise to A$3.9 billion in 2007 from A$2.8 billion last year. Qantas in August reported 2006 profit fell 30 percent to A$479.5 million in the year ended June 30, with labor and fuel making up about 50 percent of expenses.

Qantas shares rose 75 cents to A$5.10 at 11:03 a.m. in Sydney. Before today, Qantas stock had risen 7.8 percent this year, lagging behind the benchmark S&P/ASX 200 Index's 14 percent gain.

Qantas is the third-biggest airline in the Asia-Pacific region by sales, trailing Japan Airlines Corp. and All Nippon Airways Co. according to Bloomberg data.

[chansw]

How can the takeover happen? At least, it won't be a 100% takeover. Any one has any view on it?

Australia will keep flying roo: Vaile
November 22, 2006 01:43pm
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,20801989-462,00.html

DEPUTY Prime Minister Mark Vaile has said he is confident Qantas will remain in Australian hands.

A consortium led by Macquarie Bank and US private equity firm Texas Pacific Group has made an approach for a takeover bid, sending shares in Australia's biggest airline soaring to record levels.

Qantas and Macquarie have both declined to comment.

Mr Vaile, who is also Transport and Regional Services Minister, said today it was up to shareholders and the board to decide on the bid.

"On the commercial side, it is for the board of Qantas and the shareholders of Qantas as to what they do,'' Mr Vaile said in Brisbane.

Since the privatisation of the airline, the Government had maintained its individual shareholding cap at 25 per cent and foreign ownership cap at 49 per cent, he said.

"There is no view to changing any of those caps,'' Mr Vaile said.

"At the same time, obviously, shareholders have individual rights and if they can capitalise on interest in a well-run company, well that's up to the shareholders and up to the marketplace.''

Mr Vaile said the Government would continue to play its role as government regulator of the airline industry on behalf of the people of Australia.

He said a proposal from offshore investors to buy Coles Myer also had not materialised and like the retailer, Qantas was also expected to remain in Australian hands.

"I think there will always be a significant level of Australian ownership,'' Mr Vaile said.

"Obviously, with the foreign ownership cap, there will always be a majority Australian ownership of Qantas.

"But I can confidentially predict you will never see the (flying kangaroo) moved off the tail of Qantas aircraft.''

[swingstar]

Up 15%. I knew I should have bought calls the other day on the rumour. :banghead:

[chansw]

Bid challenges Aussie ownership
By Terry McCrann
November 23, 2006 12:00am
http://www.news.com.au/business/story/0,23636,20805633-521,00.html

THE $11 billion move by Macquarie Bank and Texas Pacific on Qantas is an extraordinary cocktail of straightforward "plain vanilla" private equity profit-seeking and a much more complicated play.

That's to say, it has the same essential ingredients of the two media private equity deals and the one proposed for and rejected by Coles.

The business is taken out of the public marketplace; it is loaded up with debt; the cashflow over the next three to five years is all directed at paying off the debt while it is also, hopefully, made much more profitable; then it is sold or refloated at a big profit.

So, you buy Qantas today at $11billion and sell it back in five years at $20 billion.

Qantas though is both different from and very special to Nine and Seven and Coles. That makes the deal much more complicated.

It operates under much more strict ownership rules, which are a key component of its actual operating business. They are also critical to any value-creating mergers or acquisitions.

The requirement that Qantas remains 51 per cent Australian-owned - which has driven the bidding structure - is not based solely on national jingoism or emotionalism.

But because 51 per cent Australian ownership is the basis for its global operations. That gets it access to routes and landing slots; and in turn structures its competitive environment.

So Texas Pacific could not just take a 50-50 partner as KKR did with Kerry Stokes at Seven and CVC Pacific with James Packer at PBL. Far less go for a much cleaner 100 per cent as the KKR-led consortium want to do with Coles.

This combines with the absence of an obvious core Packer/Stokes - has to be Aussie - partner anyway. Instead, there is Macquarie.

Enter the two government-mandated restrictions. That no one shareholder can own more than 25 per cent and total foreign ownership can't go above that 49 per cent which would deprive Qantas of all its international operating rights.

So we have a very unusual combination. Macquarie will take the maximum 25 per cent, "other" Aussie investors will take 25 per cent, and the Texas Pacific group will take a total 49 per cent with 1 per cent for staff.

It mightn't seem different from the other partnerships, but it definitely is.

[Bazmate]

What's going on with Qantas these days??

It used to be my favorite little blue chip with good incomes pushing the price up one week and SARS, oil price or terrorism pushing it down the next...

It's almost boring now, I held through the takeover turmoil and sold a few months ago at a tidy profit but at the same price as today, expecting it to drop like it usually does....

Perhaps QAN's drop has been offset by the share buybacks, which are increasing debt at a time when debt providers could be heading for troubled times...

Guess I'll hang on the sideline for a bit longer.

[vishalt]

Baz take a look at some other airliner shares, in Australia and the world.

They suck because the industry is one of the most fiercely competetive ones so there's no monopoly to invest in (like BHP, Apple, Mobil) etc, Qantas shareholders were just lucky that APA came to kick the share price up the ass.. infact I reckon thats the only reason they did it because airliners shares are just awful.

If I were you I'd just go with just buying Boeing's shares as air traffic/travel volume is increasing and Boeing is winning so many contracts especially with dreamliner coming soon.

[Awesomandy]

If I were you I'd just go with just buying Boeing's shares as air traffic/travel volume is increasing and Boeing is winning so many contracts especially with dreamliner coming soon.

I would think that this has already factored into Boeing's sp. They are definitely winning a lot of contracts though, mainly due to Airbus's refusal/inability to design a completely new plan in this class - the A350 reuses the A330's fuselage. So, until Airbus comes up with something new, they just can't compete.

[vishalt]

I don't believe its been factored in Boeing's share price.

Once the Dreamliner comes out and everyone sees how awesome it is, everyone will want to buy more. EADS (owner of Airbus) has also been hit with corporate scandals so that gives reasons for people interested in buying shares of airline manufacturers a reason to change.

Boeing also makes defense aircraft and with a good economy, a war and other countries beefing up security Boeing has a lot on its plate and even more to come.

[Pager]

QAN came close to a disaster last week in Thailand! Thankfully all was OK, funny though I never heard anything about this in Australia.

http://bangkokpost.com/topstories/topstories.php?id=124968

[niknah]

Apparently, it's not the only time, just that this time it's happened while the plane was flying...

http://www.smh.com.au/articles/2008/01/09/1199554708603.html?page=2

This also co-incides with an engineers' union overtime ban which was to start today but will start on Friday.

[JPC]

Qantas Airways Ltd., Australia's biggest airline, gained 2.3 percent to A$4.45 after first-half profit doubled to a record as it cut fuel costs and economic growth boosted passenger traffic. ..

[somesortoftrader]

Does anyone have a comment on the share buy-back happening at QAN.
I would have thought that the SP should be increasing as the company owns more of itself?

[Birdster]

Does anyone have a comment on the share buy-back happening at QAN.
I would have thought that the SP should be increasing as the company owns more of itself?

I would hazard a guess that rising fuel costs and the high AUD are having an effect to the price. The market is in down swing o/all atm. Also, has recently gone xd. Could be all of these, none of these and maybe some others. Only a spectator atm anyway. :)

[Bazmate]

Methinks it might be time to revisit Qantas..

It has to be the best of the airlines with respect to high fuel cost due to hedging and lets face it, the business community are still travelling.

Incidently, I think there shouldn't be much of a slow down in private travel either since in many cases it still cost as much to drive from A to B than it does to fly.

$3.30 share price, P/E of 6 odd and 7% dividend yield look pretty good to me.

Risks with industrial action.... what's new!
Risks of a new CEO next year.. could be a factor

any other thoughts?

[malachii]

If you want to buy into an airline then IMHO Qantas would be the one to buy into....

HOWEVER.......

I would question the sanity of anyone who actually voluntarily buys into an airline (including Qantas)!! There are so many challenges/issues/problems in aviation even when things are good. When they turn bad (as they are currently starting too) ...Oh boy... Problems like unions and new CEOs are minor. If these were the only challenges facing Qantas I'd be saying go for it - BUT they're not by a long shot. So I don't have to repeat myself and bore people again have a look in the Virgin thread - this might give you some idea of my BIASED opinions.

malachii

[golfmos123]

Aside from the outlined risks in buying into aviation stocks, there is one very good reason to buy into QAN at the moment...... and that is if you think the price of oil is about to drop. Every time oil falls, QAN (and other stocks highly influenced by it) will rise. I have traded QAN a couple of times in the last month or so buying when I think the oil price is going to retreat.

[mfsperth]

Just as well Qantas shareholders rejected the KKR private equity (usually funded from debt) offer for Qantas.

Search the web for Business Week 15. 5. 06 and Kohlberg Kravis Roberts.
KKR is now offering public shares through Amsterdam.

Quote from Business Week: "And by listing in Amsterdam, KKR stays insulated from SarbOx and other U.S. rules. In this novel deal, it'll use what one observer calls "dumber money" -- from public investors -- to finance deals from which private partners could reap windfalls, without divulging too many things they want kept private."

[Aussiejeff]

Aside from the outlined risks in buying into aviation stocks, there is one very good reason to buy into QAN at the moment...... and that is if you think the price of oil is about to drop. Every time oil falls, QAN (and other stocks highly influenced by it) will rise. I have traded QAN a couple of times in the last month or so buying when I think the oil price is going to retreat.

Sadly, that theory seems to have failed.

In mid-September QAN SP was around $3.50. It is now under $2.50. What happened to the POO since then? Crashed through the floor! Yet QAN also fell 30%. If only SP vs POO correlations were that simple, eh? :cool:

I hope QAN shareholders have adopted the correct seating position in preparation for todays SP crash landing following the failure of the BA merger.

aj
(non-holder)

[Aussiejeff]

Sadly, that theory seems to have failed.

In mid-September QAN SP was around $3.50. It is now under $2.50. What happened to the POO since then? Crashed through the floor! Yet QAN also fell 30%. If only SP vs POO correlations were that simple, eh? :cool:

I hope QAN shareholders have adopted the correct seating position in preparation for todays SP crash landing following the failure of the BA merger.

aj
(non-holder)

*M-M-m-m-m*! Tasty! (just finished polishing off my hat, since I was forced to eat it when I checked the SP!) ;)

Obviously, all QAN shareholders HATED the merger plan. :)

Cheers,

aj

[cuttlefish]

Got to say I'm pretty surprised by that as well, after reading about the merger being canned last night I assumed it would gap down on the open as well. (didn't follow it today though).

[investorpaul]

Any current opinions on this stock?

I have it on my watch list to short once it closes below $1.90 (hopefully any day now).

Besides my interpretation of the chart, the basis for the trade is a cross over of the 12/26 MACD and also RSI crossing below 50.

[StockDigger]

Look like Qantas will be the next Ansett. Share price slumped to lowest point. Closed at $1.890.
Oil prices predicted to increase this near future. The CEO keep down talking and trashing the brand. Union disputes keep going on. A380 delayed. Operating cost increase.
VBA and Delta just being approved. WOW

I guess this week going to be a hell sell out on QAN. :banghead: Should have sold with a low profit.:banghead: QAN down trend continuing.

[nulla nulla]

Please secure your dining trays, return your seat to the upright position; fasten your seat belt; assume the crash position and kiss your **** goodbye. Loosing altitude and no prospects of zooming back into clear blue skies in the immediate future.

Oil prices are over u.s$100.00 per barrell; Virgin has spread it's .... wings and is expanding with links to Singapore Airlines, Air New Zealand and Delta; The aud$ has risen above parity with the u.s$ and international tourism is in the doldrums. Boing is having problems delivering 777's and Airbus has issues with the rolls royce engines in the 360. And no dividends.

I suppose everyone is shorting qan atm?

[boofhead]

Qantas is trying to make some plays to get more of the fly in-fly out mining pie. It needs to gets some success there - get a slice of the boom.

I'm sure Qantas is keeping a close eye in Tiger Airways and its woes. Losing money, safety rumours which appear to be under consideration to be investigated the CASA or whatever they are.

Yeah, I hold and not happy.

[StockDigger]

IMO, QAN has so much potential upside but the negative market sentiment that bring down the SP. Especially with the CEO that used very aggressive method in restructuring by talking down the firm to create a sense of urgency to change.
I hope Alan Joyce know what he is doing. I just hope that Qan will not be the next Ansett. Perhaps, it will be the greatest restructuring ever conducted or an utter failure.

Anyway, I am holding based on commsec recommendation of Buy and my denial stage of the SP:rolleyes: Let see the performance of the SP this week especially with the news of Qantas cancelling flights due to volcanic ash clouds.

[Boggo]

I'm sure Qantas is keeping a close eye in Tiger Airways and its woes. Losing money, safety rumours which appear to be under consideration to be investigated the CASA or whatever they are.


I am not sure what woes you are referring to with Tiger, the basket (case) where Qantas are placing all their eggs is Jetstar and that is the bit that is concerning the whole industry including the current senate inquiry into aviation safety.




IMO, QAN has so much potential upside...

Anyway, I am holding based on commsec recommendation of Buy and my denial stage of the SP:rolleyes:


If the share price has so much upside then why has it closed on Friday below the price that it listed at in 1995.

I will leave that recommendation you speak of for someone else to comment on :eek:

Commsec may have missed this significant item Virgin and Singapore tie up (http://www.theaustralian.com.au/business/news/virgin-australia-inks-alliance-with-singapore-airlines/story-e6frg906-1226070741209)
They may also have missed that AMP sold the last of their interests in QAN on the 4th.

[So_Cynical]

Anyway, I am holding based on commsec recommendation of Buy and my denial stage of the SP:rolleyes:



I will leave that recommendation you speak of for someone else to comment on :eek:


I would of said something but good taste prevailed.

[Knobby22]

That Virgin/Singapore Airlines tie up will be a pretty nasty alternative for Qantas.

They seem to always have another headwind to contend with.

Good company but nasty industry. I think you can buy it but you have to be fleet of foot and a bit lucky.

[nulla nulla]

A board shake up may be a good idea. Definitely a change of management. The irishman seems to have lost control and direction.

The pilots and the unions need to step back an look at reality also. Now is not the time to be engaging in industrial action and agitating for fatter pay packets. I suspect we may see qan test the gfc lows before there is any turn arround.

[Boggo]

The pilots and the unions need to step back an look at reality also. Now is not the time to be engaging in industrial action and agitating for fatter pay packets.

You are falling for what the management are feeding the media nulla.

Qantas as most know it is rapidly becoming a holding company for many subsidiaries, Jetstar being the largest.

What the media are producing and "investors" are reading are a long way from the reality of what is actually happening.
The only time Qantas will be resurrected is when its subsidiaries (Jetstar, Jetstar Asia, Jetstar Pacific, Jetconnect NZ etc) are flying all the routes, then the whole shebang will probably be renamed Qantas.

Some interesting reading Jetstar Senate extract PDF (http://www.aph.gov.au/hansard/senate/commttee/S13622.pdf)
and the day to day reality that is being uncovered Jetstar asian cheap crews (http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/jetstar-crews-drunk-with-tiredness/story-fn7x8me2-1226073572617)

What all of this also highlights is that most so called "investors" have no idea of what is reality, they only believe what they are told.
The most basic line chart combined with a quick scan through the mandatory reports of who is buying and selling tells more about the reality of a company direction than all the spin and "expert" recommendations.

[StockDigger]

THAI-BASED CREW
$437 per month base salary or $5220 a year, plus allowances
SINGAPORE-BASED CREW
$20,000 a year
AUSTRALIAN CREW
$43,000 to $50,000 a year

Read more: http://www.news.com.au/travel/news/jetstar-pays-half-price-for-hosties/story-e6frfq80-1226073646361#ixzz1P3jnGHRj

Looking at the world comparison, Australian crews are obviously over paid and In fact they are asking MORE! AND MORE!. What Qantas should have done is "a transfer of wealth from Australian crew to their lower wages colleagues" i.e. lowering their wages and in turn increase thai crew salary:eek:, therefore valuing the distributive justice along the way. :D

However, reality is difficult. :(Greed is good. And of course, those Australian crews will not want that to happen. With AUD over parity, off shoring seems to be appealing.:2twocents. With all the shenanigan going on with the unions:sly:, well it just put more pressures and reasons for the CEO to go on with the off shoring plans. IMO, the government has been acting too protective on the workers. With the carbon tax going on, the operational cost of the firm will just increase while the workers keep getting compensation. Perhaps, the only way for Qantas to survive this uncertain market and increasing competition is to take this Flying kangaroo to new ecosystems that will help them to breed and avoid extinction:eek7:.

[Boggo]

Insert reality here...

*(click to expand)
*Note - unfit for investors

[StockDigger]

Well, chart and SP can't really tell everything. SP is just valuation of speculation. I know that Qantas is in down trend and in brink of something something. And I regret buying the shares. :o and probably going to lose it all in this QAN. possibly going to retest the support on 1.89 on Tuesday opening.

A downtrend chart just can't simply justify the current condition of Qantas.:)

[jimmyizgod]

You cant seriously tell me that because you compared australian qantas employee pay to thai qantas employee pay you have come to the conclusion that australians are overpaid because they earn more than their thai counterparts.
Are you under the impression that the cost of living is the same in thailand as it is in australia?

[nulla nulla]

Qantas is losing money. Traffic and passenger numbers are down; fares are down due to competition; the accc blocked a link between qan and air nz but allowed Virgin to link with Delta, Air NZ and Singapore; and the unions want a pay rise and the pilots want a pay rise. The Irishman is handling it badly. Qantas is also beset with problems bringing the new boings and air buses on line which would help it reduce cost and oil prises are up..

The bulldust about cabin staff costs, Australian staff v's third world employees, is a smokescreen distracting everyone from their real problems. While I am a labour and union supporter, the airline unions and pilots need a dose of reality. Now is not the time to agitate for pay rises.

In a two speed economy (mining & non-mining) qan is in the sector where income is falling while costs are rising. To survive, they need to contain cost and boost numbers of passengers. Losing business class passengers to the competition will hurt them all the more.

imo qan is sick and getting sicker and the board, management and staff need to work together to get through this period. Otherwise they are likely to fade into obscurity in the same manner ansett did.

[Wysiwyg]

One of the first to succumb to peak oil I wonder. Certainly heavily reliant upon fossil fuel and although the news focus is on carbon emissions, peak oil may be the real 'adjustment'.

[Boggo]

And the smartest man of the lot was Sir Richard Branson.
He watched the Dixon etc debacle unfold, knew there was competition for Dixon's job between Borghetti and Joyce and that the wee laddie was the likely candidate.

If that came to pass as expected he would make Borghetti an offer of an airline on a platter, do as you see fit with it, a very smart move.
Now Borghetti runs Virgin and has an intimate knowledge of the inverted pyramid management structure in Qantas and he is in the process of taking them apart.

The unions are being portrayed as the big cost issue to QF, nothing could be further from the truth, they are being set up to be the fall guys when the fertiliser hits the mistral.
Their 70's and 80's approach of just turning up with an aeroplane and having everyone flock onboard are gone but that culture and mentality still exists in the minds of those who make the decisions.

The best aircraft in the world at the moment and for a number of years now is the Boeing 777, guess which major airline does not have one ?

Virgin are hitting them on the international market, the domestic market and are about to start hitting them on the regional market against QantasLink with their new tie up with Skywest

Another nail ?

[StockDigger]

With abundant of $3 billions cash in reserve. Anyone thinking of reinstating dividend this coming financial year? What about share buy back?

[skc]

With abundant of $3 billions cash in reserve. Anyone thinking of reinstating dividend this coming financial year? What about share buy back?

That $3B is not a reserve. It's mostly money from "revenue received in advance" (~$2.9B on the balance sheet).

QAN however still has a frequent flyer programme that is probably worth more than the airline itself atm.

[Smurf1976]

imo qan is sick and getting sicker and the board, management and staff need to work together to get through this period. Otherwise they are likely to fade into obscurity in the same manner ansett did.
With the volcanic ash situation it did cross my mind for the first time that Qantas might actually end up broke.

Virgin seemed to have no problem absorbing the additional fuel cost of flying at lower altitudes in order to run as many scheduled flights as they could reasonably manage under difficult circumstances. Qantas on the other hand seems to have taken the cheap option and is viewing it as "move objects from A to B at the lowest possible cost, time is not critical".

That's not a good attitude from Qantas, and it leads me (and everyone else I've heard comment on it) to regard Virgin as the superior airline in terms of reliability, service etc. That leaves no reason to fly Qantas, at least not unless they are significantly cheaper than Virgin. The trouble is, being a discount carrier doesn't really work for Qantas' business model...

[StockDigger]

New board member has been appointed "Ms Corinne Namblard" Phd in political science. Are they bringing her in for the union negotiation? Hope this union dispute will come to end by this end of June.

[Boggo]

This was earlier this month... Rats found on aircraft (http://www.abc.net.au/news/stories/2011/06/02/3233286.htm)

Apparently another nest found today in the forward galley.

[Boggo]

Have a look at this tangled web, 3 degrees of seperation ?

(click to expand)

[StockDigger]

Sunny sky today after 2 weeks gloomy and rains. I have a good feeling on QAN today. finger crossed. Why don't we keep this thread alive? Stock tipping?

$2.50 by December.

[tinhat]

I'm just wondering if anyone that posts in this thread actually owns any QAN? And if so, why?

I'm a pretty average investor in terms of extracting return out of the market. That said, I wouldn't touch QAN with a rat's ****.

Airlines are like vineyards, they take a lot of capital investment deployed into a highly contestable, competitive market.

[skc]

I'm just wondering if anyone that posts in this thread actually owns any QAN? And if so, why?

I'm a pretty average investor in terms of extracting return out of the market. That said, I wouldn't touch QAN with a rat's ****.

Airlines are like vineyards, they take a lot of capital investment deployed into a highly contestable, competitive market.

Many share analysis text books use an airline as examples of a bad industry to buy-and-hold. And it's quite hard to disagree on that. Fuel costs, discretionary spending, interest rates, exchange rates, labour union issues, technical issues, terrorism, swine flu, earthquakes, SARS, weather, vocanic ash... it's hard to think of another industry that is as easily shakened as airlines.

Having said that QAN is a decent trading stock imo. I am long QAN at the moment as part of a pairs trade.

[franklin235]

With the volcanic ash situation it did cross my mind for the first time that Qantas might actually end up broke.

Virgin seemed to have no problem absorbing the additional fuel cost of flying at lower altitudes in order to run as many scheduled flights as they could reasonably manage under difficult circumstances. Qantas on the other hand seems to have taken the cheap option and is viewing it as "move objects from A to B at the lowest possible cost, time is not critical".

That's not a good attitude from Qantas, and it leads me (and everyone else I've heard comment on it) to regard Virgin as the superior airline in terms of reliability, service etc. That leaves no reason to fly Qantas, at least not unless they are significantly cheaper than Virgin. The trouble is, being a discount carrier doesn't really work for Qantas' business model...

I heard Virgin was the only airline besides the internationals and the regionals to carry on flying here to Adelaide. They don't seem to be doing all that badly despite the cancellations, no. Qantas, meanwhile, looks to be a totally different story...

"Rival airlines have slammed the decision by Qantas to cancel flights and labelled the tactic a PR stunt aimed at boosting the beleaguered company's public image.

Virgin, Emirates, Cathay Pacific and Singapore Airlines are privately fuming at the Qantas decision.

Qantas was the only major airline to continue to ground flights.

"At the moment there are no particles in any airspace where we're flying and our pilots are even reporting in and telling us their space is clear," one airline told The Daily Telegraph.

[Smurf1976]

I heard Virgin was the only airline besides the internationals and the regionals to carry on flying here to Adelaide. They don't seem to be doing all that badly despite the cancellations, no. Qantas, meanwhile, looks to be a totally different story...
Domestic flights are critical infrastructure in Australia in much the same way as roads, rail, electricity, gas etc are critical infrastructure. With Qantas (including Jetstar) having something like a 70% market share, their decision to shut down has had a massive impact on the wider community.

Imagine if 70% of the electricity, gas etc were turned off for no good reason. There would be widespread community outrage and government would almost certainly step in and order that production be resumed.

Qantas has exposed its own dominance as a fundamental weakness in my opinion. I can't be the only person who has suddenly realised that we have a huge exposure to the actions of a company. As a politician would say, that situation is clearly not in the national interest and something needs to be done about it.

I wouldn't have thought that getting government and the general public off side was a smart move for a company such as Qantas when you think about the longer term implications it could well have. :2twocents

[StockDigger]

I am on QAN for long. There is upside fundamental just market negative sentiment that pull it down.

buysellsignals.com just upgrade their short-term trading for QAN from 2 to "3 out of 5". They still maintain the long term "5 out of 5"

Here is the fundamental analysis quoted from their report:
BULLISH SIGNALS:
Price/Sales of 0.3 versus sector average of 1.1 and market average of 1.7.
The Price to Book of 0.8 lower than average of 7.3 for the Transportation sector and 2.8 for the Total Australian Market.
BEARISH SIGNALS:
The earnings yield of 2.72% below 10-year bond yield of 5.08%.


Technical analysis:
BULLISH SIGNALS:
The Relative Strength Index (RSI) of 14.9 has breached the oversold line of 30; the stock is also oversold according to the Williams % R indicator of -95.2.


And information I got, don't know if it is accurate=>

"Balanced Equity Management Ltd bought a net 22,656,088 Qantas Airways Ltd shares between March 1 and June 15, 2011, increasing from 161,110,780 shares (7.11%) to 183,766,868 shares (8.11%)." Is it accumulating time?

[Boggo]

Sunny sky today after 2 weeks gloomy and rains. I have a good feeling on QAN today. finger crossed. Why don't we keep this thread alive? Stock tipping?
$2.50 by December.

It hasn't changed from the direction it has been going since 2007.
Waiting for you to qualify the $2.50 by December statement.



I'm just wondering if anyone that posts in this thread actually owns any QAN? And if so, why?


There may be a few who hold, usually Mum and Dad type investors, their stock selection is usually limited to the likes of Telstra, Qantas, Woolies and a few banks.
You will recognise them by terminology such as 'bought a small parcel, added to my holding, long term this has great potential, I am an investor, in for the long term upside and bottom drawer' etc comments.

That sort of covers who and why I think.

(click to see reality)

[Boggo]

"Balanced Equity Management Ltd bought a net 22,656,088 Qantas Airways Ltd shares between March 1 and June 15, 2011, increasing from 161,110,780 shares (7.11%) to 183,766,868 shares (8.11%)." Is it accumulating time?


Averaging down on the ones they bought in Jan and Feb, be interesting to see what their current average cost price is.

They probably bought what AMP were selling, AMP are now out.

May be interesting to see who gets it right.

[StockDigger]

QAN on trading halt!.

[Boggo]

QAN on trading halt!.

Jetstar to Europe ?

[matty77]

Jetstar to Europe ?

Major loss to be confirmed. I wouldnt be holding.

[skc]

Major loss to be confirmed. I wouldnt be holding.

Everyone was expecting the worst and it actually wasn't nearly as bad. The P/L impact is cushioned by the Rolls Royces engine settlement.

Allowed me a nice exit at $1.87 ish. Who knows which way the volcanic ash will blow tomorrow...

[matty77]

Expect to expect the opposite of what the media expects is going to happen and then you should get it right.

[StockDigger]

investsmart.com.au put QAN on buy (21 Jun 2011) recommendation with 8 brokers surveyed. Should we go short or long this time?

http://www.investsmart.com.au/shares/asx/Qantas-Airways-QAN.asp

Commsec changed their recommendation to Hold

[Columbia330]

It is difficult to invest in a Company that has been fined multiple times for freight cartel fraud, never purchased B-777 aircraft to replace the majority of it's aged 747 fleet. Continues to have only two destinations in Europe, 1 in mainland China. Loses huge amounts of money with Jetstar Pacific in Vietnam and Jetstar Asia (small accounting profit last financial year). Jetstar International cannot be profitable as much of it's income is derived from Japan and the load factor is poor. The management is only interested in the Low Cost Carrier model which has difficulty making a profit when fuel costs are high. Virgin Australia has worked this out and are chasing high yield business class passengers. Besides the $95 million from Rolls Royce, how much of the remaining profit comes from Boeing for the late delivery of the B-787 or from Airbus for the late delivery of A-380's? Rob Fyfe from Air New Zealand would be a far better CEO. He doesn't call his Pilots Kamikaze's, he actually engages his employees and leads by example. Qantas is being run by consultants with a destructive industrial agenda. Not a company I would invest in, especially the way it has been mismanaged!

[Boggo]

Jetstar to Europe ?


Brace position kiddies !

qantas-to-outsource-tokyo-osaka-flights-to-jetstar-japan (http://www.ausbt.com.au/qantas-to-outsource-tokyo-osaka-flights-to-jetstar-japan?utm_source=internal&utm_medium=flipper&utm_campaign=home-flipper)

[StockDigger]

B787 News after a long delay. When will Qantas received theirs?

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-07-01/boeing-787-shadow-flights-in-japan-signal-jet-delay-almost-over.html

[Boggo]

Worth a visit perhaps, at least for the other side of the story as opposed to the Qantas media dept.
http://qantaspilots.com.au/

[franklin235]

Looks like we're heading to Asia now.

[young-gun]

Qantas fleet grounded indefinitely. Mr Joyce has some seriously big ba**s to make a move like this. It could very well break the airline. On the other hand it may be a very smart move, and the only way to rectify the ongoing turmoil caused by the strikes.

http://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/more-news/qantas-strikes-to-hit-10000-passengers-today/story-fn7x8me2-1226180030416


Fingers crossed the unions come to the table before 8pm monday. Thoughts?

[beersheba]

After the AGM two of the unions reaffirmed they will continue and even escalate their industrial action well into next year.
I think the unions have been making out they are only "lightly cooking" Qantas, for public relations reasons, hence the 1 hr work stoppages.

But the real damage to Qantas is not the cancelled flights for that day, but the drop in advanced bookings, something like 25 to 30 % now for some regions.
Lets face it, if you want to go on that dream holiday, you will be thinking twice about flying with Qantas if there is a threat of union action.

So while the damage to their reputation will be big and its a big gamble, i think Qantas management had to do something. Thats why Alan Joyce gets paid big $.

It will be interesting to watch their share price on Monday. Maybe the market has factored something like this into the price already, but i still think its not going to be pretty.

[Whiskers]

But the real damage to Qantas is not the canceled flights for that day, but the drop in advanced bookings, something like 25 to 30 % now for some regions.

That's true. Joyce is obviously frustrated with the forecast revenue based on consumer surveys, BUT...


So while the damage to their reputation will be big and its a big gamble, i
think Qantas management had to do something. Thats why Alan Joyce gets paid big
$.

Joyce got paid big bonus bucks because certain performance targets were met. What exactly is in his salary performance bonus requirements for this year and next?

Big bucks does not necessairly equal best interests of the compant, better performance for the company, better returns for the shareholders or service for customers. Sometimes it's only an inducement for someone to take on a risky strategy, often fraught with illegality, to meet a certain end.

[snsdmonkey]

So what do we think QAN will open at on Monday? 0.97 is my guess :p:

[Chasero]

So what do we think QAN will open at on Monday? 0.97 is my guess :p:

$1.30? LOL

The AGM held was the funniest thing I've seen all year!

"Please note, Mr Joyce is NOT wearing a bullet proof vest"

[drsmith]

My guess is a trading halt.

[lucifuge]

They'll probably rename the carrier in an effort to mask it's history. Probably a name like Ansett

...oh,.. wait!

[prawn_86]

OK so before this grounding they were saying the diputes were costing them $15m a week. What i am wondering is how much the pay raises everyone is asking for would cost them per week??

If the cost of the raises was less than $15m pw surely it makes sense to agree?

Now with the grounding it just shows that Aussie travellers are pretty screwed longer term with no airline able to be trusted, and no airline ombudsman in place travellers are completely at the airlines mercy.

[UBIQUITOUS]

OK so before this grounding they were saying the diputes were costing them $15m a week. What i am wondering is how much the pay raises everyone is asking for would cost them per week??

If the cost of the raises was less than $15m pw surely it makes sense to agree?



Pay rises would be for life which is not the case of the cost to Qantas for the grounding.
I hope Qantas stick to their guns in the face of these union thugs. Having said that, Joyce is having a laugh with that bonus.

[Billyb]

Pay rises would be for life which is not the case of the cost to Qantas for the grounding.
I hope Qantas stick to their guns in the face of these union thugs. Having said that, Joyce is having a laugh with that bonus.

Joyce has no choice, if he gives in to their demands the long germ outlook for the company is not looking good. Big changes are needed and the unions dont get that if they dont stop being morons then all of them wont have any job.

[dutchie]

Big changes are needed and the unions dont get that if they dont stop being morons then all of them wont have any job.

No worries the government has plenty of money to make sure they are compensated.

I say we bail them out.

Think of the carbon gas savings.

[fwpike]

Pay is not the sticking point. The Unions want to stop having their jobs outsourced to cheap overseas labour. Their choice is to go down fighting or to pick up a redundancy package one day soon. I would have liked to have seen Alan Joyce anounce this the day before the AGM!

[hoggy]

I'm considering investing substantially in Qantas this week. It's risky but if they resolve the industrial disputes this week and expand into Asia over the coming years it might be the perfect time to jump in. What are the chances that Qantas will return to $2+ in the coming months?

[prawn_86]

Pay rises would be for life which is not the case of the cost to Qantas for the grounding.
I hope Qantas stick to their guns in the face of these union thugs. Having said that, Joyce is having a laugh with that bonus.

The cost of reputational and brand damage caused by this is for life, or at least 20+ years. They have done it once, whats to stop them doing it whenever someone wants a pay rise? Unfortunately there is an airline oligolopoly in Aus, but international travellers will be sure to think carefully :2twocents

We are flying internationally with Qantas next yr and are thinking of changing carriers

[Billyb]

The cost of reputational and brand damage caused by this is for life, or at least 20+ years. They have done it once, whats to stop them doing it whenever someone wants a pay rise? Unfortunately there is an airline oligolopoly in Aus, but international travellers will be sure to think carefully :2twocents

We are flying internationally with Qantas next yr and are thinking of changing carriers

People forget things pretty quickly. Once the smoke settles down it'll be fine

[prawn_86]

People forget things pretty quickly. Once the smoke settles down it'll be fine

Dont bet on it, especially for international tourists with more options than our domestic routes. 'Brand' is a valuable (if undefinable) asset for a business and somehting like this will always be in the back of people mind, or even sub-conscious when booking for years to come

[nulla nulla]

I'm considering investing substantially in Qantas this week. It's risky but if they resolve the industrial disputes this week and expand into Asia over the coming years it might be the perfect time to jump in. What are the chances that Qantas will return to $2+ in the coming months?

When the dust clears the damage to the Qantas brand, by Joyce, will live on in everyones memory for a long time to come. The people that have had to make alternative flight arrangements with alternative carriers will probably be extremely greatful to the alternative carriers and most of them will never fly Qantas again.

It will also impact on Jetstar, which is after all a division of Qantas. If I was looking to make a long term investment in an Australian based Airline now I would look a lot closer at Virgin.

[joea]

You are focusing on the small issues.
With a new government or the next government, we need economic growth.
If there is not a rate drop on Tuesday, we need to turf every one of the RBA officials out on the sidewalk.
Abbott has said that he will not bring back work choices.

Gillard has just proved she cannot run the country.
Labor was advised with 3 hrs. notice with what was happening with Qantas.
They did not respond. Fair work Australia needs savlon cream and bandages.

Gillard has been caught out big time by throwing it at Abbott.

If fair work Australia sides with the unions, then international Qantas is finished.
joea

[Calliope]

If fair work Australia sides with the unions, then international Qantas is finished.
joea

Exactly.

[pilots]

Why cant the Qantas workers work for the same rate of pay as the Virgin workers do??????????????, they are surving ok. If they are not happy with the job they are doing why not quit, and work in a job that they like. Good on Qantas, BRING IT ON, its time to get rid of the Unions if we want our air line to succeed.

[snsdmonkey]

Why cant the Qantas workers work for the same rate of pay as the Virgin workers do??????????????, they are surving ok. If they are not happy with the job they are doing why not quit, and work in a job that they like. Good on Qantas, BRING IT ON, its time to get rid of the Unions if we want our air line to succeed.

Quite agree actually. I don't think they deserve a pay rise at all, unsustainable and just plain selfish considering they're the highest paid already in Australia and these economic conditions. Then again Mr Joyce just topped that by getting a pay rise so he's just lost his case right there. Messed up situation for sure.

[tinhat]

If I was looking to make a long term investment in an Australian based Airline ...

That would be a certain sign of insanity.

[sails]

Dont bet on it, especially for international tourists with more options than our domestic routes. 'Brand' is a valuable (if undefinable) asset for a business and somehting like this will always be in the back of people mind, or even sub-conscious when booking for years to come


Qantas brand was already being trashed due to industrial action. As shareholders would you prefer for continued strike action for another year? It seems there was no end in sight and I understand that the Qantas brand was already suffering.

At least, this is hopefully the last inconvenience for passengers with industrial action. If I were a share holder, I would think Joyce has done the right thing to bring this to a head and get the passengers travelling without the constant threat of delayed and cancelled flights due to union strikes which have already been upsetting passengers.

Without Joyce's action, I think the Qantas brand would eventually be entirely trashed by the very people who work for them.

[McLovin]

If a few once-a-year flyers are inconvenienced on a weekend that's no biggy, they usually can be lured back with cheap flights. Look at Tiger, suspended because of safety and their load factor only fell 9 points. Qantas did it on a Saturday afternoon so that business travellers, the guys who actually keep Qantas flying, would suffer the least inconvenience.

[Chasero]

All the bad press and QAN up 6% today. Wow, didnt see that one coming.

[snsdmonkey]

All the bad press and QAN up 6% today. Wow, didnt see that one coming.

Yeh GG to all the shorters out there?

[notting]

Yeh GG to all the shorters out there?
It was a great move by Joyce I reckon. Union rubbish in an impossible industry. He earns his pay this guy. Long QAN short VBA.

[snsdmonkey]

It was a great move by Joyce I reckon. Union rubbish in an impossible industry. He earns his pay this guy. Long QAN short VBA.

Yepp same here. The only reason he was getting slagged off was because the media tried to highlight Joyce's pay rise. Union pressure for unsustainable wage demands, it's like they deliberately don't want to have jobs in the future!

[sails]

Yepp same here. The only reason he was getting slagged off was because the media tried to highlight Joyce's pay rise. Union pressure for unsustainable wage demands, it's like they deliberately don't want to have jobs in the future!

Yeah, it's no wonder the workers want job security...:D

[RandR]

For the last couple of weeks Ive been working at the airport on the gold coast (doing some renovation type work)

One thing has really struck out to me in the last few days, the plane turnaround time for Jetstar, in comparison to Virgin and Air Asia and Tiger is outstandingly slow. In most cases if Virgin or Air Asia are taking 30 mins or 1 hour to turn around a plane, Jetsar are taking 1 hour or 2. Considering there operating within the same business plan (ie:low cost carrier, making low margins on higher volumes of passengers) it sticks out to me as being a very considerable disadvantage to have your planes sitting on the ground longer then competing airlines.

The A330's for Jetsar seem to be the worst offenders, the 2 they have flying out of the Gold Coast seem to spend about 1/2 the day on the tarmac going nowhere.

[oldblue]

Anyone contemplating investing in QAN might want to first read this article by Stephen Batholomeusz.

"Politicians and union leaders searching for a context in which to place the damaging confrontation with Qantas could do a lot worse than looking at the latest International Air Transport Association forecasts for the airline industry and some of the comments of its chief executive, Tony Tyler, in particular.

At the moment IATA, which tends to be consistently over-optimistic, is keeping to its forecast of a $US6.9 billion profit for the industry in 2011 and has only modestly revised down its 2012 forecast, from $US4.9 billion of profit to $US3.5 billion. At that level the industry would be generating a profit margin of only 0.6 per cent.


Should the eurozone crisis deepen, a banking crisis develop and Europe fall into recession, however, IATA would expect all regions to fall into losses and the industry overall to lose about $US8.3 billion. As it stands, that looks the more likely scenario than the more benign outcome in the eurozone that underpins the central forecast.

The Qantas group, of course, is profitable. Even after absorbing around $100 million of losses as a result of the disputes with three of its unions that led to the grounding of its fleet, it still expects to generate underlying earnings before tax of between $140 million and $190 million in the December half.

That profit, however, is based on the strength of its domestic franchise, its frequent flyer business, its Jetstar brand and its other non-aviation operations. Its international operations, it has said, are losing $200 million a year.

If IATA’s view of what 2012 might look like in the event that the eurozone authorities can’t finesse a positive and stabilising outcome imminently, the outlook for Qantas’ international business – in which it has $5 billion of capital tied up – would look even less palatable.

Even on IATA’s more sanguine outlook for 2012, the industry would have lost more than $US26 billion over the past decade despite generating revenue of $US5.5 trillion. It is a terrible industry, not helped by the interventions of government or the lack of comprehension of its inherent vulnerability by unions.

‘’You might say that the normal state of aviation is crisis and once in a while we have a few consecutive months of benign conditions – the danger of which is that everyone from suppliers to unions to governments think that airlines are fat cash cows ready for milking in one way or another,’’ Tyler said.

It is the denial of the reality of the international aviation industry and its impact on Qantas’ business that underpins union attempts to freeze those operations in a 1960s status quo and the government’s inability to comprehend why Alan Joyce took that very difficult and financially painful decision to ground the fleet.

If IATA’s fears about the eurozone were borne out, the Asia-Pacific region, generally the most profitable in the globe, would, with the rest of the world, lose money – more than $US1 billion – rather than the $US2.1 billion profit IATA’s central forecast anticipates.

For Qantas, flying point-to-point long haul routes against Asian and Middle Eastern hub carriers with far more modern and efficient products, even the less threatening outcome isn’t going to materially reduce the tide of red ink flowing through its international business. A European meltdown would be very unpleasant.

International aviation isn’t, and never has been, a good business. Over the past 40 years, according to Tyler, the industry has actually made money – but generated an abysmal profit margin of only 0.3 per cent.

In the past decade the emergence of new carriers out of the Middle East and Asia has meant that despite relatively strong growth in passenger numbers, yields have been squashed by the torrent of new capacity pouring into the industry.

Qantas’ international operations need to be radically restructured, their cost base lowered and its configuration re-shaped. Joyce’s strategy of launching a new premium carrier within Asia alongside the rapidly-growing Jetstar business – one of the reasons for the union hostility – might be risky but the status quo isn’t an option.

Even if Qantas could wear the losses, while there is no prospect of generating a return from those operations it isn’t possible for the Qantas board to justify the massive investment required to completely overhaul and upgrade the international product to make it more competitive. That’s why the timetable for the fleet renewal program has been continually pushed out into the future.

Whether or not IATA’s more pessimistic outlook for 2012 is confirmed, the actions taken by Joyce and his board this year to try to do something about the uneconomic structure of their international business are validated by the continuing sub-economic state of the international industry. "