ERG - ERG Limited

[ghotib]

The chartists will probably find this funny, but has anyone been looking at ERG?

They've almost completed a 3 year restructure of the management, the company, and the balance sheet. According to a briefing issued in July 2004 they expect to break even for 2nd half 2004 and show profit from 2005. The business is smart card systems for multi-modal transport applications like One Link in Melbourne.

2nd half 2004 results are due next week, and given the date of the briefing I'd expect them to break even or to show a very small profit. The share price has been falling steadily all year. There are quite a lot of small bids from 0.270 to 0.250 - I don't know what that means, if anything?

Closing price today is 0.270. It's been on a long, slow slide since it fell off a >$26 cliff in the tech wreck.

Comments?

Ghoti

[ghotib]

According to their own website, results are due in November. I said next week because that's when they made announcements before.

Whack Whack; Engage brain before starting fingers.

[stefan]

ERG will issue approximately 335.3 million shares at an issue price of 20c each.
Based on this alone I would assume that there is only minor support to keep the price around 30 cents. History has shown that companies who issue that many shares at such a discount will suffer a correction. (Same as MUL who just happens to be in a similar situation...)

I would stay clear until the financial details are out for 2004. Should the situation improve, there will be plenty of time to get in. For now I would predict that the price will suffer over time and hit the 20 cent mark. It may take a few months, but it will hapen if nothing spectacular comes out from their business.

Happy trading

Stefan

[ghotib]

Based on this alone I would assume that there is only minor support to keep the price around 30 cents. History has shown that companies who issue that many shares at such a discount will suffer a correction. (Same as MUL who just happens to be in a similar situation...)

I very nearly quoted the price as 7 times MUL, but I was trying for rational :D.

I knew about the rights issue and I'm not in any hurry, especially now I've realised when the results are due (rational doesn't work with crook data).

I'm thinking of offering to buy a parcel off-market from a friend who I think might welcome the capital loss. Maybe at about 22 cents in October, assuming nothing else changes. Does that make sense? I've never done anything like it before.



I would stay clear until the financial details are out for 2004. Should the situation improve, there will be plenty of time to get in. For now I would predict that the price will suffer over time and hit the 20 cent mark. It may take a few months, but it will hapen if nothing spectacular comes out from their business.


Interesting. I think "spectacular" would be bad in this case. I'd like to see them meeting project milestones, keeping their staff sane, and steadily building a sustainable, profitable business that pays genuine dividends. Preferably fully franked. I'd be very suspicious of spectacular for the next couple of years.

Happy investing

Ghoti

[stefan]

I very nearly quoted the price as 7 times MUL, but I was trying for rational
;D


I'm thinking of offering to buy a parcel off-market from a friend who I think might welcome the capital loss. Maybe at about 22 cents in October, assuming nothing else changes. Does that make sense? I've never done anything like it before

Can't help you there. Sounds strange to me. How would you be able to transfer the rights without using a broker? Never done it before and never really thought about it. So you'll need to find out yourself.

Happy trading

Stefan

[kooka1956]

Ghotib, the NTA after*the new issue *, I read somewhere is going to be 39 cents per share . 22 cents would be a bargain if my memory is correct . As the extra shares of the new issue dilution has already been factored into the share price , (THEY WERE AROUND 60 CENTS BEFORE ISSUE), current price has ben oversold and a rebound is likely to happen . regards.

[GreatPig]

How would you be able to transfer the rights without using a broker?
See here:

http://www.asx.com.au/about/FAQs_AA2.shtm#Off-Market

If you Google for the Australian Standard Transfer Form, a few different links come up, but there's a sample one here:

http://www.platinum.com.au/reports/trf_form.pdf

Cheers,
GP

[stefan]

Ghotib, the NTA *after the new issue *, I read somewhere is going to be 39 cents per share . 22 cents would be a bargain if my memory is correct . As the extra shares of the new issue dilution has already been factored into the share price , (THEY WERE AROUND 60 CENTS BEFORE ISSUE), current price has ben oversold and a rebound is likely to happen . regards.

Looks like the market has a slightly different view today.

Keep in mind that this company has not made a profit yet. With 600million shares on offer and no profit around you'd have to be very much in love with this company to call it a bargain and oversold. Just because NTA is put at 39cents doesn't mean much. The figure is not really important to investors as they wouldn't get that much money anyway. What counts is EPS. And it's not looking good in that regard. If a company can just break even then a share price of 30 cents is rather far fetched.

I agree with you that buying oversold companies can be a very rewarding strategy. The trick is to find when a company is clearly oversold. I'm just no too sure with this one. Then again you may have watched it for months or years so you would be in a better position to judge. I for one don't like it for the reasons mentioned. But that's just me. So good luck with it.

Happy trading

Stefan

[stefan]

Well, if you just bought some at 25.5 you'd already have made a nice profit today *::)

Happy trading

Stefan

[ghotib]

Hi everyone,

Stefan, just to be clear, I meant buying the shares off-market, not the rights (which has closed). It would save the brokerage on both sides, and my trades are all so small that even $20 is worth worrying about. I also just want the experience.

Kooka, are you sure about that NTA? I thought 60cents was quite a while before the rights issue. I'm away from my desk and I'm still a newbie at this and I can't keep the numbers in my mind. I agree that they're oversold, but it's not all that obvious when you consider that they haven't turned a profit for several years in spite of some big projects coming on line.

GP, thanks for the ASX links.

Go good guys

Ghoti

[stefan]

Stefan, just to be clear, I meant buying the shares off-market, not the rights (which has closed).

Ah, I see. Ok, then GP's links will be of help to you.


Kooka, are you sure about that NTA?
They have stated that NTA on their news release regarding the new issue of shares. They estimate the NTA to be at 39 cents.

But look how it traded today! One could have made an easy 5 cents with it. Maybe it was kooka buying like crazy? ;)

Happy trading

Stefan

[kooka1956]

Closed at 30.5 cents today . A nice little trade in this stock today . I have been following this stock for a number of years and with 88% of shareholders taking up their entitlements most seem to have confidence in their company . At any rate the funds should give them plenty of working capital to get over the hill. Incidentaly their are two types of renunciation forms, Security renunciation for transfers between brokers, (yellow colour ) and standard renunciation for transfer of rights between individuals .( gold colour) These can only be used prior to rights issue closing . As new issue has closed a white standard transfer needs to be used for transfer of shares between individuals .Regards,

[stefan]

nice little trade in this stock today . I have been following this stock for a number of years
And what is your outlook on this one? Would be interesting to hear from a guy who kept an eye on it for so long.

Thanks and happy trading

Stefan

[kooka1956]

The raising of this $67million basicaly gets rid of their debt , but also appeases their major funds supplier, "The Ingot Facilities" as mentioned in their prospectus . Working capital of $26 million is now available plus a drawdown on the above facility can be made if required . I would say that sufficient funds are now held to complete design and testing , supply and install most of the major projects that are in the pipeline,and as these are completed funds will start rolling in from operations . I am expecting we have just passed the low point for the stock and profits to be declared in the not too distant futue . Even this current financuial year . Whether dividends will be declared is another thing, as a percentage of future profits will need to be retained for future contracts . regards.

[stefan]

Thanks Kooka

I'll keep an eye on this one. Will be interesting to see if it can really keep the 30cents level or if we will have more of those strange selling moments over the next few days. I take it you regard anything below 30 cents as a bargain.

Happy trading

Stefan

[kooka1956]

I have increased my holding in the past few days , and look forward to any further aberations regards kooka.

[stefan]

Kooka,

I have one main reason why I'm cautious with ERG. If I was to get shares at 20cents with its value currently at 30cents, I'd be tempted to sell out. So my idea is that this will happen and that we may see a few pullbacks to the 25 cents range from which it may recover quickly each time, but I somehow think that we will see selling activity soon.

Does that sound too far fetched?

Happy trading

Stefan

[kooka1956]

I think most of the selling has already happened . Anybody who didn.t want to increase their holding would have sold the rights rather than take up the new issue and then sell when scrip was issued. Regards KOOKA

[stefan]

Anybody who didn.t want to increase their holding would have sold the rights rather than take up the new issue and then sell when scrip was issued


Was the recent issue only to existing shareholders?

Happy trading

Stefan

[kooka1956]

The recent new issue was for shareholders only , although about 12% of new issue shares will be taken up by the underwriters , who may or may not be current shareholders . In other words 88% of new issue shares were taken up by existing sharehoders which is a pretty good indication of the solid shareholder base that they have . Then again who wouldn,t take up a issue like this , issued at such an enormous discount at the then market price .Regards,KOOKA

[stefan]

Thanks Kooka,
That makes sense then. Well, I'll keep in on my watchlist, looking for a good oportunity to grab a few.

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[Joe Blow]

ERG has made some nice gains over the last few days.

Well done to ghotib who called it first and Kooka1956 who picked it for September's competition.

Will be interesting to see how it finishes up at the end of the month.

[kooka1956]

I.m hoping all the bad news has now gone through the system and that management have finaly got their act together. If so this stock should steadily increase over the next months . Sometimes it takes a lot longer to climb back after such heavy falls over the years BUT IT NOW LOOKS ON THE MEND . Regards, KOOKA

[stefan]

Nice pick indeed. Good luck with it! It seems to be a hot candidate for the September competition. I still can't see a reason why it would keep going without interruption and if there is one, then I'll try to get some... :-)

Happy trading

Stefan

[profithunter]

There was a positive report in the fin review today stating that ERG is looking to post a profit in 2005 and how the company has cut back and is now just focusing on its core business of smart card technology. Looks like a good thing at the moment...I might pick some up too.

[ghotib]

ERG has sell orders in at 10 cents. The only reason I can see is that bids for the Victorian Transport System contract are open and ERG has competitors - DUH!!!

If this is the dramatic over-reaction it looks like, then here's a nice chance to buy.

Kooka?

Ghoti (off to the dentist dammit)

[stefan]

Picked some up this morning at .305. Seems to be reasonable at this stage.
I'm still not totally convinced that it won't trade lower but there is also a big upside potential so I decided to get in on the first pullback.

We shall see how wise that was...

Happy trading

Stefan

[kooka1956]

I had a nice trade when it when down to 25-26 cents last month ,and also purchased on the new new issue at 20 cents . Unfortunately my application for additional shares was knocked back .(Shareholders were given the opportunity to apply for additional shares over and above their entitlements).In other words there was oversubscribtions in the new issue. They obviously have many people still wanting to plough their money in. One good aspect is that even with the advent of the issue of the new shares, there doesn,t seem to be downward pressure on the share price any more. I consider them a good buy at current prices , although I wouldn,t put the house on it . Regards. KOOKA

[ghotib]

I don't know what happened to those 10 and 12 cent offers I saw. Maybe they were a computer hiccup?

That'll learn me not to obsess about Mr Market.

[stefan]

I don't know what happened to those 10 and 12 cent offers I saw. Maybe they were a computer hiccup?

Ghotib, you posted that BEFORE the market opened. So it wasn't a computer hickup but most likely a pre open sale order which happens quite regularly. You see many orders way out of the normal bid/ask price range. I've commented on that in another thread:
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showpost.php?p=1986&postcount=8

So don't get too alarmed when you see something like that. It doesn't mean anything as long as you don't see millions and millions of them.

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[stefan]

So we just had the annual report out for ERG. Net assets are now at 27 cents which pretty much reflects its current price. A pretty big loss per share still, but the outlook remains very positive. Revenue of 300 million in 2006? Maybe I'll keep my shares for a little while then.

Have a nice weekend

Stefan

[Afterglow]

Up until last month ERG was one of two lots of shares that I held. [ now six ]
Bought in at 0.089 to see them do the 1 for 10 split and the price go up nicely, then down and down.
I continue to hold and having taken up on the last isuue and buying more to round out the number at 0.32 last month bringing my average down to just under 0.50 . I have a lot of faith in this company as they are getting better at what they do, they just have to convince thier clients and potential clients that they are starting to get thier act together.
Still conting to hold this stock does bring my value average down and looks bad on paper I believe 2006 will see it back in the green for me.

[Joe Blow]

Any ERGites want to comment about what is keeping ERG's share price down?

My interest in it was sparked by last month brief rally to 35 cents. However, the price has since gone back under 30 cents and seems to have settled there for the moment.

I'd be interested in hearing people's opinions.

[ghotib]

Only guessing, but I don't expect the price to move much until the revenues start to come in and show up on the financial statements.

Especially if MUL continues to absorb so much interest ;)

Ghoti

[stefan]

Any idea where the sudden activity comes from? I'm sure glad I didn't sell with a loss this morning as I was about to dump ERG due to lack of movement. Now it's back up nicely and I don't know why. sniff.... ;)

Any comments?

Happy trading

Stefan

[stefan]

Still no new no ERG? It seems to remain strong and it's resisting any selling pressure we saw last week. Kooka, you mentioned it could be in for a run, but why?

Happy trading

Stefan

[kooka1956]

ERG,s big borrowings have put pressure on the price for quite a long time .Their recent new issue has cleared a lot of that debt , and the directors should have more time in running the business than worrying about their creditors .Overall market sentiment now seems a bit more positive and the share price graph is now ticking upwards . I am comfortable holding stock at the moment . Regards KOOKA

[stefan]

It is certainly showing a bit of strength here. Nice increase today and no end in sight. Finishing the day on a high note, I'd say it will go for 40 cents soon.

Maybe the prospect of 300 million by 2006 is starting to sink in. I had no time looking into it any further. Was just pleased to see it higher today. Any comments welcome...


Happy trading

Stefan

[stefan]

I don't assume anybody here attended the AGM today?

Would be interesting to hear what the impression was. Anyway, I just keep holding for the time being, waiting to see some results.

Happy trading

Stefan

[stockGURU]

Any updates on ERG?

Have had a vague interest in this one for a while but haven't kept up to date with what's been going on.

:nuts:

[RichKid]

Not looking good atm:



ERG Revenue Forecast To Drop
June 27, 2005 - Sydney Morning Herald

Smart card group ERG says it expects its second half year performance to be worse than the first half of the 2004/05 financial year, with full year profit forecast in the range of $215 million to $230 million.

Revenue for the first half was $116.5 million and for the previous financial year was $263.8 million.

ERG said it was reviewing the costs of all major projects.

One of its major projects is the Sydney smart card system which ERG said remained on track for a full rollout in the first half of 2007.

ERG has developed an integrated transport fare management and software system, which has been installed in Hong Kong, Melbourne, Rome, San Francisco and Singapore.

[ghotib]

ERG awarded $106 million contract for Victoria

The ERG Group, a world leader in smart card automated fare collection systems, announced today that it has been selected to participate in the development of Victoria’s next generation of public transport ticketing. The contract over 12 years is worth approximately $106 million to ERG.

ERG is a member of the Kamco consortium that was today selected to form a $494 million partnership with the Transport Ticketing Authority (TTA) to deliver Victoria’s new state-of-the-art transport ticketing solution.

Other consortium members are Keane Australia, Ascom, and Giesecke & Devrient Australasia.

ERG will install hardware for the new system as well as provide the ongoing maintenance for the equipment.

Dr Allan Sullivan, Chief Executive Officer of ERG, stated, “We are pleased that we will have the opportunity to continue to provide quality service for Victorian public transport customers.”

As the current provider of maintenance for the Melbourne system, ERG has consistently achieved outstanding performance levels for devices and other hardware over the past few years.

As part of the successful consortium, ERG Group provides a team of experts with an unmatched understanding of Victoria’s transit system. The Group has installed similar systems in major cities throughout the world including Hong Kong, Rome, San Francisco and Singapore with installations in progress in Gothenburg, Seattle, Stockholm, Sydney and Washington DC. ERG has delivered systems that support more than 20 million smart cards in circulation and handle approximately 5 billion transactions per annum.
I need to go back through the announcements for the year to figure this one out - I thought ERG lost Melbourne about April. Anyway, the market this afternoon is taking this as good news. Just off the close ERG has gone back through 30cents. Wonder if it will last.

Ghoti

[RichKid]

I need to go back through the announcements for the year to figure this one out - I thought ERG lost Melbourne about April.
Ghoti

That's what I thought too, weren't they backed by IBM (not mentioned in the latest annct)? Or is it some other aspect of the Vic transport system? Could just be speculators again (daytraders). Since I know a bit more about the co than when I last traded it I wont be entering again. See the other ERG thread for technical studies after it jumped up the last time: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1000&highlight=erg

[chansw]

The following is the tender update that ERG posted on 16 March. It did mention "ERG will consider alternative options ahead of a final decision" but they never mention what the alternative options were. The story is covered in Australian IT http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,15903147%5E15306%5E%5Enbv%5E,00.html

Anyway, anyone has any view about this price surge? Thanks

"Tender Update
In accordance with Listing Rule obligations, we wish to advise as follows.

The Transport Ticketing Authority (TTA), part of the Department of Infrastructure in Victoria, has advised that it will not be continuing further negotiations with the consortium to which ERG is a subcontractor in the lead up to selecting a preferred tenderer for its new public transport ticketing system. ERG will consider alternative options ahead of a final decision.

This is a disappointing decision, as IBM and ERG believe they offered a compelling package for the TTA and Victoria. Whilst ERG is still considering its position with respect to Melbourne, it remains focused on profitably delivering its projects and pursuing new opportunities."

[ghotib]

The following is the tender update that ERG posted on 16 March. It did mention "ERG will consider alternative options ahead of a final decision" but they never mention what the alternative options were. The story is covered in Australian IT http://australianit.news.com.au/articles/0,7204,15903147%5E15306%5E%5Enbv%5E,00.html

Anyway, anyone has any view about this price surge? Thanks

Thanks Chan. I'm amused to see that the related story about ERG's concerns about Octopus and intellectual property rights says that ERG was knocked out in March. There's probably a fascinating story around IBM and Keane (who I'd never heard of before) and lots of devious negotiations - but I guess we'll never know it.

Anyway, I still see no reason for a major price change until there's evidence that the company can fulfil its contracts profitably. I thought the price drop after they were dropped from the deal in March was excessive. I think the price surge on today's news is likely also to be an overreaction from short term traders. I still think the company's management has earned some patience from shareholders.

Cheers,

Ghoti

[ghotib]

That's what I thought too, weren't they backed by IBM (not mentioned in the latest annct)? Or is it some other aspect of the Vic transport system? Could just be speculators again (daytraders). Since I know a bit more about the co than when I last traded it I wont be entering again. See the other ERG thread for technical studies after it jumped up the last time: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?t=1000&highlight=erg
I re-read that whole thread tonight, and confirmed that when I eventually get around to technical trading I'll need to keep it entirely separate from investing. Trying to suss out (guess??) the reason for short term share price movements looks to me like a good way to get myself very confused.

Hmmm.... that might almost be worth a thread on the Chat Forum.

Cheers,

Ghoti

[RichKid]

when I eventually get around to technical trading I'll need to keep it entirely separate from investing.

Ghoti,
Yep, that's right, the two shouldn't be mixed up or nothing comes right. Basically a poor candidate for the universe but still could have taken profits if we'd been aware of it and traded appropriately (ie a short term trade with a set profit target). Both can be used in a complementary manner though. I only found out about the weak fundamentals later, should have looked at it first via an analyst report (eg StockDoctor was the one I mentioned that gave it a woeful rating). Still allowed a safe exit with minimal loss. That thread did get a bit confusing, hence the need for two threads, one on technicals, other on fundamentals (this one).

My guess re ERG is they teamed up with another bidder and dumped IBM, the new team won. Pity they didn't keep the market fully informed (at least I didn't hear of it). Is that an accurate assumption?

[el_ninj0]

Looking like there is a bit of an uptrend this morning on this one guys. Mabey a short for 19.5 and sell at 20.5?

Just a thought...


:2twocents

[bonkers]

November 4th --key day in the sharetrend--new issue at 12.5c---it traded down to 13.5c--everyone has tried to bottom pick ERG--including myself without success on numerous occasions.
Give this ago and see what happens--lol
bonkers

[ghotib]

FWIW and just because I've posted several times that I thought this should trade sideways till the company starts to generate revenue:

1. It didn't trade sideways; it's trended down down down. It also isn't generating much (any?) revenue.

2. I haven't been following announcements etc. but I do note that projects are in trouble. I've been working in cash strapped software companies where things went over schedule: often the schedule is overoptimistic and choices are being driven by the need for cash. An error-friendly situation and very, very tough on everyone involved (including the customers, assuming they realise it).

3. I'm not a trader. I don't know diddly about bottom-picking share prices.

Cheers,

Ghoti (the invincibly ignorant)

[bonkers]

Interested in what people may think on ERG--now that it is 13c--any views?
bonkers.

[bonkers]

Ghoti
I think perhaps at this level for ERG--it would be more important to think like an investor rather than a trader---it's not with the money raised going bankrupt--here is a penny dreadful that is marginable--there is some concern the company may go private--my view is knowlege of the company at this point is probably more important than a chart.
bonkers.

[el_ninj0]

ERG has had a bit of action in the past few days. Bouncing back from its recent downturn. Is this the bounce back we should jump in on or not? Who knows. Would be good to find out why its happening though, since there have been no announcements. Down trend isn't broken yet.
I dont hold, but have been watching it for quite some time, and have learned alot from it.

[Kauri]

$500 million net loss over the past 4 years, the only thing keeping them afloat is that investors seem willing to drop money into the hat whenever it is passed around.... I note that they have just announced another $30 million hat passing exercise... what promises are the management making this time?? :rolleyes:
Bonkers... knowlege of the company at this point is probably more important than a chart. ;) The chart reflects the punters view of the company.

[bonkers]

The writer is divisble by 9 with the summer solstice 21/12/05--based on birthdate.Two days in the summer solstice December 21 and 22.
I have both Mahammod the Prophet and Queen Elizabeth the 2nd coming up from April, in toto with the vernal equinox March--re death sentence handed down in Vietnam. I am 60 days end Libra--and to quote some of what Yogi has stated (I have read some of his words)--60 is a magical Chinese number.
ERG has much improved fundamentals. Read recent announcements.

[Kauri]

Bonkers... When the frost settles on the nose of the buffalo the teepee will be empty

[bonkers]

From Incredible charts--where I also post.
=========
Thursday 15th of December--Full moon--emergency sitting of state parliament (today is 9 days since then)--seeing I'm still awake--I might as well do Friday--Federal Reserve System created 23/12/1913--the 23rd--is in conjunction with hotcopper banning date 23/10/05--I'd regard the creation of the Federal Reserve System though as much more important--no offence H/C.
Tojo and 6 others executed 1948
George Washington resigned 1783
Sydney Opera House--see my post at Ozestock--basset1--23/10/1973--I was there the day the Queen opened it.
207 x 9 the dog that bites itself---ex top twenty shareholder in ERG who threatened to sue me for defamation.
bonkers (day to day count.)(if you count one day forward you get lotto--as he told me at his place in 2000 (Melbourne Cup Day--we were betting 12000 dollars on each horse race on that day)--with me getting a small piece of the action.)---the stockmarket is just a punt!lol
On the dog trading count--I was exactly (info well sourced)--63 on December 1st. 1st day of Summer--World Aids day.)(that info applys to CPU--but I think it can equally used on ERG) (CPu has risen)
Just back from works Xmas party--today I assembled ETSA and Energy Australia--blue in colour-(I did Western Power on Thursday 22nd--the 2nd day of the solstice.)-had just one beer and two vodka's--even so slept through my train stop!--lol The John Farnham milk expiry date has run out today.

[bonkers]

I'm off work from Friday 23/12/05 Total Fire #BAN Daily Telegraph front page#to Tuesday 5th of January 2005 I'm the most banned poster on Australian websites.--don't get paid for that ten day break at the widget company that supplies electricity company's.
Anyway closure to that matter.S/H
My last appointment with Mental Health was the 21st where I was divisible by 9 based on real birthdate. Married Elton John.
Need to pay my Mastercard--it falls due on Tuesday January 3rd.
Next Mental Health appointment---Medical Review is Wednesday 4th of January 2006.
I have taken my lithium as instructed by the doctor (medical prescription dated the 29/11/05)--incarcerated (or should I use the term jailed Daily Telegraph front page Thursday 22nd January?) 17/11/05 to 29/11/05.
Lithium makes you quite thirsty for milk--my John Farnham milk expiry date (last one was the 23rd) is also the same day Mastercard is due Tuesday January 3rd--backstage passes to Johns concerts.
I'm in the Lotto draw tonight hoping to win a motza.

[bonkers]

Happy Xmas Hannaka first time in 46 years the two festivals coincide.
On this day in history William The Conquerer was crowned King of England
25/12/1066. Based on birthdate on a Sunday I'm divisible by 7 (day to day count.)--so I have a saying (as part of my own personal thing) I was born in the USA--Hippy music is on tv at the time of writing--Timelife--re heading into the age of Aquarius. I'm hopeless as a high person with a birthday like mine I'm obviously a low person I realise CPU has risen so I'm with ERG.
Bruce Springsteen.

[Ann]

Forgive my intrusion, may I offer a chart with FA slopped all over it?

I love charting, it is full of inside information, if you look hard enough....

ERG really doesn't appear to offer the average punter much, except a tax deduction against successful trades.

ERG has been around for those who may not know, since the 'tech wreck'. It was pumped and hyped by everyone who was anyone. A lot of respected stock commentators lost a lot of street cred over their hyping of this one. There appears to be a tremendous amount of ill will associated with this stock. This makes any kind of break out from its downhill race highly unlikely.

This is a stock that seems to dig itself into a hole further and further every time it hypes itself. It creates a price spike and then a drop....so creating a point of reference for an overhead resistance trendline.

If you hear that ERG has dumped its CEO, this may be the time to watch the price very closely.

...and the chart....

[bonkers]

Hi Anne the excellent comments you have made with attached chart taken on board.
Muhammad Ali the world famous boxer was born January 17th 1942 (on his birthday January 17th 2005--I'll be divisible by 9 based on my birthdate.)--execution day for Gary Gilmore in 1977.
Today he is divisible by 9--in times past he has always been uncannily accurate with ERG and other stocks.
He was awarded a Medal of Freedom along with Alan Greenspan by President George Bush on November the 9th 2005.(75 x9 Solar1 2004)
Appropiately enough it is Boxing Day!--lol
Throw Hoges in there--Sydney Harbour Bridge (closed on New Years Eve--fireworks) is divisible by 9 today as well as Ali.--opened 19/3/1932.)
Today is the expiry of the 2nd John Farnham milk container the 26th (the first expiry was the 23rd.)
1966
The first Kwanzaa is celebrated.

The year 2005 will see the 40th annual Kwanzaa, the African American holiday celebrated from December 26 to January 1. It is estimated that some 18 million African Americans take part in Kwanzaa.

[Ann]

Hello Bonkers,

Thank you for your kindness.....

Are you working with Gann charts?

[bonkers]

Hi Anne I like Gann very much (true story) (I'm not making this up--just simply the truth)--I got caught in ERG--having made an incorrect sell decision on it--back in about 2003--rather than recognise reality--sell the thing and move on (at one stage I had CTX at 1.63--should have kept that one!-lol)--actually I bought and sold ERG a few times--it was after I sold CTX at around 1.80--that I went back to ERG--I also flirted with CPU at the 2 dollar level--unfortunately for me--it was in a downward spiral--before eventually bottoming on the 12/3/03--Goldmans--1.35
Anyway I did cycle studies on ERG for all the above time (even before that)--even though I was going down each day--I logged it's progress--so I know I have a reasonably decent cycle on it today.
I'm a William Gann groupie for sure-birthdate 6/6/1878 (using his birthdate--I can get amongst so many other things--execution days in Singapore, Singapore executes once every 9 days.)-although I'm only a novice at it--while holding ERG all of those dreadful years--I had plenty of time to study his theories--can't say I'm anywhere near proficient in them.
Zorro opens today in cinemas 26/12/05--Boxing Day. (Zorro is a favourite on BB's going back years, as long as I can remember.) On my body clock because I had ERG--I even suffered mood swings related to the shareprice--I had very little money and it was a constant battle with my margin lender to access cash for living expenses--so I use my own body clock as a trading count today. (now I have a job--then I was unemployed.)
Regards,--bonkers

[Ann]

There is one thing that concerns me about Gann charts, Bonkers. When Gann developed them from the Ancient numeracy system, he would not have had to cope with all the new issues that some of these companies are regularly doing to dilute the price. He mostly worked with Commodities as with wheat and soybeans etc. These are influenced by and susceptible to the same rules Gann was using to chart them.

I am aware that the charts I am working with are also distorted by new share issues.

this is a quote from an old ASX notice about a share split....

At the ERG Limited Annual General Meeting on 27 October 2000, ERG
shareholders approved a three for one share split. As a result each
ERG share will be split into three new ERG shares.

The share split will become effective from the commencement of
trading today, 1 November 2000, and from today trading in ERG
securities will be an a postshare split basis.

It is expected that from today the price of each ERG share will
decrease to approximately one third of the price at which it closed
on 31 October 2000 (A$9.45), however the extent of this reduction in
price will depend on extrinsic market forces.

Notice on the 31 October 2000 their price was $9.45? On my charts they are listed as closing at $18.639. That is quite a distortion......caused by share issues and adjustments made to the charts to compensate. I can truly NOT understand the need for this distortion. However we struggle along .....going slightly Bonkers!!!!

[bonkers]

On Sunday January the 1st--I'll be a 7 based on birthdate--ex Mrs bonkers (who I was so sucessfull with--untill the bear market struck) will be a 9
7 x 9 =63. Sunday 1st Of January will be 208 times the dog that that bites itself 17/11/2000
bonkers made the Daily Telegraph at the time along with ex Top Twenty shareholder in ERG.

[Ann]

7 x 9 =63. Sunday 1st Of January will be 208 times the dog that that bites itself 17/11/2000
bonkers made the Daily Telegraph at the time along with ex Top Twenty shareholder in ERG.

Come on put up the article Bonkers, my curiosity is tickled now. You can paint your name out....

Bonkers said.....Ex Mrs bonkers was a palm reader and devoutly Roman Catholic and she considered herself a witch and believe me over time I realised what it was like to be on the wrong side of a witch!--lol

A witch will never do you any harm, they just have an uncanny ability to reflect back any ill will sent their way!!! :p:

[bonkers]

A witch will never do you any harm, they just have an uncanny ability to reflect back any ill will sent their way!!!
Your words Anne---yes Carly Simon--"your so vain" comes into it.
I'm regarded as a dog on BB's the real me has a birthday the same as Harry S Truman--the President who dropped a bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and ofcourse the Westminster dog show 1877. Ex top twenty shareholder in ERG I feel fears any bombs I drop on him==lol
Timelife.

[Ann]

A witch will never do you any harm, they just have an uncanny ability to reflect back any ill will sent their way!!!
Your words Anne---yes Carly Simon--"your so vain" comes into it.
...and any kind thoughts or good deeds will be returned three fold as well.



I'm regarded as a dog on BB's

What who is BB's?......http://www.bbspot.com/


the real me has a birthday the same as Harry S Truman

May 8th
--the President who dropped a bomb on Hiroshima and Nagasaki and ofcourse the Westminster dog show 1877.


"First Annual New York Bench Show of Dogs." Produced by the Westminster Kennel Club, the show was held in Gilmore's Gardens, Madison Avenue and 26th Street, on May 8th through the 10th, 1877.

and a picture....

[Ann]

Ex top twenty shareholder in ERG I feel fears any bombs I drop on him==lol
Timelife.

Is this what you mean Bonkers?........
[disclaimer, I have nothing to do with this, I am just shovelin' it along]

Published on October 30, 2003

Breaking Stories

Ex-con makes smart lobbyist What do ex-convicts do when they get out of the joint? In the case of one famous San Diego money-laundering felon, he becomes a lobbyist for a big San Diego defense contractor angling for a San Francisco public-transit contract. It's none other than Richard T. Silberman, ex-aide to Governor Jerry Brown and ex-husband of former San Diego mayor Susan Golding. Silberman was hauled off to the federal lockup in the desolate high-desert town of Boron following his 1989 conviction. Golding divorced him in 1991, shortly after becoming mayor. Silberman, now 74, got out of prison almost exactly ten years ago, on October 26, 1993. He subsequently moved to the Bay Area, where he married Lisa Layne, 47, a self-styled "management consultant." They have a small child. According to Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) officials, Silberman has been lobbying on behalf of Cubic for a number of years. His activities became public this fall during a dispute between Cubic and the Bay Area's Metropolitan Transportation Commission, which runs the "Translink" smart card fare program. In September, the Contra Costa Times reported that Silberman "sent scathing e-mails and reports to a BART director and the commission's elected panel" calling ERG, a Cubic competitor, "financially unstable" and "warned of more cost overruns, delays, and excessive operating costs" in a contract Cubic wanted to wrest away from ERG. According to MTC spokesman Randy Rentschler, that effort came to naught and ERG kept the contract after Cubic sued, then agreed to drop its case against the agency. A Cubic spokeswoman says Silberman was hired because "he's an excellent businessman and former head of the California Business and Transportation Administration." Coincidentally, Gray Davis chief of staff Lynn Schenk, a onetime Silberman protégé, is said to be in the running to become a member of the state's Medical Assistance Commission, a $99,000-a-year patronage plum that Silberman also was awarded after leaving Jerry Brown's administration back in the late 1970s.

[bonkers]

In 2004 at one point I had 1.5 million ERG up or down 10c for me was 150.000 dollars--it was mine held on behalf of another person who used me as a trading count. I was brutally honest when on a Monday of that year I stated "I don't like Mondays"---Boomtown Rats. ERG was in a downtrend--I needed to record the price trend honestly--shortly after I made that statement on the CTTY thread Clear Station--I was banned.

[Ann]

Never mind Bonkers,

If they ban you here just get in touch with these people and start your own Stock Forum.....as others have done...

http://www.vbulletin.com/

and then put yourself on this site

http://www.downunderindex.com/index.php

Then you can offer to pay me heaps of money and I will come and chatter away and put up charts for companies I have absolutely no interest in.....how's zat? Good? Good!

[Buda]

Slight surge ahead its half yearly reports... is ERG coming up with the goods finally :sly: The count down is on.

[Buda]

The bulls are moving in some thing must be going on.

[Buda]

Bears are running out of steam or you could say paw, grunt will ERG HIT $1.00
could be full of show :eek:

[guru]

There has been discussion about ERG for eons, I guess hope is a good thing for many holders of this stock. :banghead: no use floggin a dead horse

[Buda]

nice volume bulls.. ready for charge

[Buda]

http://asx.com.au/asxpdf/20060413/pdf/3w9z735l0g7rm.pdf :sly: :sly: :sly:
more contracts wonderfull

[Buda]

Since my last post ERG has broken out of some downward pressure could see a reversal and a run to the .45 cent mark .. What do you think?

[Buda]

Can any body tell me why westpac has become a major shareholder of ERG?
They just purchased 45 mill shares.

[Buda]

Should i buy some more ERG? Can anyone shed some light on the stock it seems like the dead horse has risen from the grave... will it run in the Melbourne cup?

[chansw]

Can any body tell me why westpac has become a major shareholder of ERG?
They just purchased 45 mill shares.
I could not find any news either. Normally, Sydney Morning Herald likes to report ERG whenever there is bad thing happened to it. I think Westpac might see ERG's business is turning around as the CEO said all the major projects are getting into the final stage, that means the money will come in soon. Also, he mentioned ERG will receive $180 millions dollars in the coming 18 months and expect 2007 to be cashflow positive.

[Buda]

It looks like westpac has decided to increase its holding by 10 more million, this is getting very interesting, will others join in?

[Buda]

Over the last couple of months ERG share price has performed well. Is 30c the next target?

[Buda]

ERG chart

[Buda]

ERG market depth is looking exciting it looks like it wants to break the ressistance at 20 and move higher, i think this could be achiveed on theback of a + ann. imo the chart is a screaming buy

[chansw]

ERG market depth is looking exciting it looks like it wants to break the ressistance at 20 and move higher, i think this could be achiveed on theback of a + ann. imo the chart is a screaming buy
The breakout happened even without any announcement. I think there must be some good news coming soon. I agree from the chart, it is a screaming buy.

[Buda]

This stock is going mad maybe ann coming out.

The bulls are on a rampage.

[Buda]

erg,erg,erg,erg,erg,erg,erg,erg,erg,erg, your heart out.........$500 million merger

[EEE]

I'm hearing you Buda, 20 mil traded before lunch with a sp increase of 16.5%

Do you have any info on this merger?

[ALFguy]

Who's better OCL :)

[ALFguy]

Sorry, last post was supposed to say "whos betting OCL" :p:

Some huge orders being thrown around on this one. Something must be going on.

[chansw]

I'm hearing you Buda, 20 mil traded before lunch with a sp increase of 16.5%

Do you have any info on this merger?
http://www.nzherald.co.nz/category/story.cfm?c_id=27&objectid=10406295

Cadmus-Provenco merger talk hots up

1.00pm Tuesday October 17, 2006
By Simon Louisson


Cadmus Technology today announced a share and option placement in a move that could be a precursor to a merger with fellow electronic payments company Provenco.

Some 31 million shares were placed at 20c each plus 6 million options at 22c each. Cadmus had 240.8 million shares on issue.

Today's placement was made to fund managers and a number of wealthy and professional investors.

NZPA also understands the placement was not to The Warehouse founder Stephen Tindall, South African-born, Australian-based Duncan Saville, nor Navman founder Peter Maire, who each have substantial stakes in Provenco and are believed to be driving merger moves.

As well as having a 5 per cent stake in Provenco, Mr Maire owns 17 per cent of Cadmus.

Cadmus' South African-born chairman Keith Phillips said there was substantial market support for the companies to merge and both he and his board would welcome moves in that direction.

There had been no formal talks or company-to-company discussions.

"There isn't anything officially happening at this particular point," he told NZPA.

"I would see real advantages in a get-together."

"The board of Cadmus are keen to consolidate this industry to scale up the businesses as best we can."

Mr Phillips said the New Zealand companies had advanced technology and "the more we can consolidate to take on the international market the better off we'll be as companies.

"We would welcome discussions with other players."

Some shareholders and management wanted the New Zealand companies to form an international front.

"It's something that I personally would support."

He said New Zealand business's biggest problem was scaling up to become international players.

"But there is a whole set of issues... to be sorted out in terms of people's positions and egos and shareholder values and that sort of stuff before anything like that happens."

Timaru millionaire Allan Hubbard, who has a stake in Cadmus and participated in the placement, told NZPA he supported a merger.

"They are both in the same field. It's a highly technical field, so the two New Zealand companies would go quite well, I would have thought."

Cadmus signalled the money raised would be used to continue its growth strategy "that includes acquisition and or amalgamation of similar and compatible entities".

Mr Phillips said he would be extraordinarily disappointed if competition regulators prevented a merger even though together they dominated. The local market was tiny and both companies were focused on expanding overseas.

"We are trying to compete internationally, not in the domestic market and we are sitting in one of the world's smallest market places. If we can't actually form up to take on the international world it would be a great pity for New Zealand business."

Provenco was strong in the petrol station forecourt market whereas Cadmus' strength was in retail outlets, taxis and vertical "solutions".

The new investors, due to be named within 24 hours, supported industry consolidation, Mr Phillips said.

"I know they are mostly global players who understand the need for critical mass to scale up a business.

"They are probably not investing in these companies based on the domestic market-place. They see genuinely the opportunity to do something quite big in this space."

The reclusive Mr Saville, who was a founding investor in Infratil, bought into Provenco this month via General Provincial Insurance.

He is a secretive, sometimes controversial and very wealthy company turnaround investor who worked for Sir Ron Brierley's Hong Kong-listed Industrial Equity Pacific in the '80s.

He is the controlling shareholding in ERG, an Australian-listed IT business with investments in electronic ticketing, that may also be folded into a merged Cadmus-Provenco.

Described by Mr Maire as a billionaire, Mr Saville has had some failed investments and in a court case involving one of these, a New South Wales District Court judge said part of his evidence was "obviously totally false".

Shortly after taking a stake in Provenco, Mr Maire merged Cadmus with Australian IT company Intellect Holdings Group, which itself was being restructured by Mr Saville.

Mr Maire told the Sunday Star-Times the Cadmus-Intellect Holdings merger was driven by the need to scale up.

"In this business you get global significance or you get eaten alive."

Cadmus, whose shares fell 1c to 21 cents today, has a market capitalisation of $50 million compared with Provenco's $117m.

Mr Maire said a merger of the New Zealand companies and ERG would have a market capitalisation of around $370m, which could quickly become $500m if synergies were realised.

"I leave you to draw your own conclusions, but there is certainly a lot of room for us all to co-operate more."

[Buda]

ERG has now closed the .24 cent gap... the bulls will resume the charge... towards .40 cents to close off the .36-.40 gap

[Buda]

ERG doing an intaday reversal bulls are ready to charge (oversold at the moment)

[Tekmann]

ERG doing an intaday reversal bulls are ready to charge (oversold at the moment)

Buda

What else do you see, as the oversold indicator suggested a buy at 23.5c which It has fallen below, and with very little support and buyers/sellers ratio neck n neck it's hard to say it's going up and not further DOWN.

EDIT: I've also found the oversold indicators not so reliable on donwtrending with spikes changing the oversold indication.

Thanks
Tekmann

[168]

Probably against my better judgement, I have exited this stock taking a small profit of 27%. Good luck, Buda :-)

[EEE]

Thinking I should have done the same thing back when the sp was 28-30c :banghead: but someones gotta keep Buda company.

I'll be grateful for a bit of consolidation around the current sp (seems to be a few buyers coming back in) and then hopefully we'll see another spike :2twocents

[Tekmann]

Thinking I should have done the same thing back when the sp was 28-30c :banghead: but someones gotta keep Buda company.

I'll be grateful for a bit of consolidation around the current sp (seems to be a few buyers coming back in) and then hopefully we'll see another spike :2twocents

Ain't you lucky EEE, seeing more than consolidation today, and hindsight tells me I should have watched this bit better....along with the others...

Anyway Hope oppotunity presents itself EEE.
'p.s I've been on and out of erg & ewc since the lows 20's , and can't get over ewc's performance.....bugger :banghead:

[Buda]

Strong support volume for ERG little resistance how soon it will gap up at .46 cents we will have to be patient.... intellect and cadmus merger will be finalised soon... Even tough Saville sold 3 mil shares on market, he still holds 297 mill. Dont really understand why the market reacted like that.. maybe its a sign that he is willing to merge ERG into the pack..

[Buda]

The dailly MACD has turned up from a low ressistance tha dailly stochastic also turned up from oversold at a value of 25.. GO ERG

[EEE]

Yes I think whenever we get a close over 0.25, it'll be game on.

Could be a tough gig for today but I think its only a matter of time imho

[Buda]

ERG building good support, will close on a new week high. Slow stoch has turned up from oversold. Will it retest the 52 week high?

[Buda]

ERG bulls ready for a massive run hold on to you seats great support and value consoladation at .25cents

[Buda]

Watch this one today guys

[EEE]

I like your optimism Buda but I think we might be in for a quiet day.

(hope I'm wrong though)

[Buda]

check this out guys

[Buda]

westpac has increased its holdings in ERG once Again, buying as much as another 10 million shares. WHY? Can they see somingthing we cant.

[EEE]

Whatever it is, I hope they announce it at next weeks AGM.

I've missed a few goods trades having my money tied up in this waiting for it to kick off

[Buda]

Thats right we might also get some light shed on the merger. ERG als doing live testing this week in scotland, which might give them the oppotyunity to do whole country.

[Buda]

I have also decided to become a major share holder top up my ERG"S today trend travelling well above 45 degrees Go ERG

[EEE]

yeah I topped up a couple of days ago when they first hit 25 again.

ERG is starting to frustrate me a little, all the indicators seem to be pointing the right way, all except the most important one - PRICE!!

Anyway, my completely factless hypothesis is that Westpac may be somehow involved with facilitating the merger and have decided to top up themselves to take advantage.

But like I said, this is just a hope and has no factual grounding whatsoever

[Buda]

EEE what do you think about the chart? ERG is a gap filler if you looooook back in time it has always filled gaps i am 99.9% shore The 36-39 gap will fill The momentum is on our side The dailly MACD is ever coming closer to the ZERO

[Buda]

http://news.google.com.au/news/url?sa=t&ct=/0-0&fp=45513c93619d75e1&ei=wFxRReqvGsvWHLvOmRo&url=http%3A//www.egovmonitor.com/node/8457&cid=1110961026

[EEE]

EEE what do you think about the chart? ERG is a gap filler if you looooook back in time it has always filled gaps i am 99.9% shore The 36-39 gap will fill The momentum is on our side The dailly MACD is ever coming closer to the ZERO

Hi Buda,

I think that on a long enough time line, all gaps will be filled eventually for any stock, its just a matter of course.

Regarding the chart, the MACD histogram keeps teasing us by approaching zero and then taking a step back, I'll feel much better once this hits positive territory. I also watch the 14 day RSI and this is rapidly approaching the oversold zone with each 0.5-1 cent drop.

Regarding the overall trend, the share price keeps respecting the underlying trend line that I have on my chart and if your a user of the GMMA, you can see that the long term averages are well spread apart and robust, signifying a very strong underlying up-trend. I think that the pennant that has formed over the last 2 weeks in October will hopefully give a target of 0.36 before more consolidation.

These are just my thoughts on ERG and whats been keeping me in the stock for the past month and not taking my money out and utilising it elsewhere. I only like to hold a position for a 5 weeks max and I'll be hitting that with ERG next week.

But anyways, good luck to us all

Disclaimer: As always, the above is not to be considered as any sort of advice or recommendation and if you take them to be such, you are a clown

[EEE]

Good start for ERG Buda, could be quite a day

[Buda]

I have been trying to understand this formation but dont quite get it can some one please explain

[EEE]

I too would appreciate some comments from an experienced techie :confused:

I'm hoping its an ascending triangle and not a double top

[fleathedog]

I'm no techie but by the fundamentals I can't see this one going anywhere anytime soon.

Management have given some bullish statements and that has pushed the price up. They've got about $180m in receivables that management says are due on to be paid on milestones related to their troblesome major projects over the next 1-2 years.

If they don't deliver the market will be merciless... There is plenty of upside if they do though ;)

[gresim25]

Just observing ERG...if it holds at 0.27 it would be good time to get in. Just touching the trendline in my charts. If it holds or signs a small strength from jumping of it, it would be good time to enter. My only concern is overall market. If it goes down a bit ERG will cross the trend. SO far the trendline was respected as holy grail.

Any thoughts?

Greg

[Buda]

Greg it looks like it needs to consolidate a little before it makes its next move. ERG has started it trend late august and has been trending for last 3 months, it has caught the eyes of BT Investment Group taking a 60 mil share holding, others may follow suit, good news follows good news.

[Buda]

ERG wins $60 million in new contracts.

ERG up 14% on open, great support building. ERG about to smash the resistance at .30. 2007 will be a great one for ERG.

[Buda]

No selloff this morning, ERG still holding the open price, having opened a 3cent gap and support well on the way. We could see this retest .30 shortly, momentum is on our side and the ERG bulls are ready for a charge...This one in play Macd has just triggered a buy signal .. I wish i could buy more :(+

[Buda]

I took some time out and put some candle sticks on and results were more than pleasing. Like I've said before good news follows good news.

[mildew79]

hello buda

what charting platform do you use? havnt seen this one before.

totally agree, erg looks pretty good on the charts. should see a new high in the near future.

[mildew79]

buda

you have three trendlines on your recent chart. i did not like the recent breakdown of a significant trendline (9 touches) and subsequently sold at this point. initially on @ 0.15 break. what have you used to calculate the other two trendlines shown?? just curious. shall look to buy at .31 break on volume in near future.

[Buda]

79 Speed Resistance Lines, also called 1/3 - 2/3 lines, are a series of trendlines that divide a price move into three equal sections. They are similar in construction and interpretation to Fibonacci Fan Lines. Speed Resistance Lines are used to define price support levels. For example, if a security is in a rising trend, its price will usually stay above the 2/3 Speed Line. If prices do penetrate the 2/3 line, they will generally fall all the way to the 1/3 line before regaining support. As far as trading the stock i am always buying on weakness, if you look at the stock on monthly chart its quite clear for the past 4 months the bars have higher highs,a higher high will be achieved in dec, .45cents to be exact.

[Buda]

Looks like bears have run out of steam, good support volume, will the bulls take charge and run ERG to .45 The macd has ticked up.

[angela200172]

Looks like bears have run out of steam, good support volume, will the bulls take charge and run ERG to .45 The macd has ticked up.

ERG starting to run again. :)

[fleathedog]

Has come up a lot today on pretty big volumes...

Anyone got any explanations? Can't find anything myself.

Cheers.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

ERG ..... it matters not HOW we make any forecast, if it keeps us from
burning up our capital, then it has given us valuable service ... and if
it helps us to time our trade entries and exits better, then it is well-
worth the effort to do the simple mathematical calculations, required.


FWIW, the following astroanalysis is based on Gann's astrostuff:

21052007 ..... likely to test support early ... ???

25-28052007 ..... difficult time cycle expected here

01-04062007 ..... positive move expected ... finance -related???

19-22062007 ..... sets up 3 difficult cycles here, including 2 that form
a "Finger of God" aspect pattern ... and may bring significant news.



09-10072007 ..... significant and negative cycle - finance related ... ???

20-23072007 ..... positive spotlight shines on ERG, at this time.


03082007 ..... mixed cycles may bring positive news, but a significant
and negative cycle may easily keep ERG trading flat, at this time.



This period 10-17082007 is likely to be a VERY negative period for ERG ...??


13-14082007 ..... looks negative ... finance-related ... ???

17-20082007 ..... 2 x negative spotlights on ERG

04092007 ..... a monior and positive time cycle.

24-25092007 ..... 2 cycles bring in more difficult time cycles.

happy days

paul

:)



=====

[juw177]

Sentiment is changing, has been a clear trend up in the past month.

It looks like their contract with Citirail will go ahead as planned and as long as they make money from that contract the stock can be accumulated at the current levels very safely.

http://www.smh.com.au/news/national/cruel-tcard-twist-to-hit-commuters/2007/10/10/1191695991669.html

[stevo]

With regard to Tcard look at Budget estimates (http://www.parliament.nsw.gov.au/prod/PARLMENT/Committee.nsf/0/F53F22B70DB4D23BCA257375007FFE35), check out the transcript page 14 onwards.

The term "I will take that on notice" is used often. Aspects of the project and contract are commercial in confidence. Questions on notice are supposed to be answered within 21 days.

On a very short term level it could be argued that ERG is trending up, but I would step back a little and look at the bigger picture. Ask the question "is there a better place to put my money". I find it very difficult to pick a turnaround at such an early stage.

[overule]

ERG is in big trouble.

Say bye bye to the company. It's going way down. I can't see them surviving any longer.

NSW government announced it was Pulling the plug on Tcard,
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,23100635-15306,00.html

Westpac offloads 10 million ERG shares
http://www.australianit.news.com.au/story/0,24897,23107820-15306,00.html

[Tristo]

Yes, huge trouble for ERG. It might be interesting to see what they can get from the NSW Gov after the contract was broken. But the rubbish project performance might see them with not a penny... it's tough to say.

[overule]

NSW Government will be taking ERG to court for the $95 millions taxpayer's money lost. I heard that this was their largest project so if this is gone so is ERG. ;)

[b4subi05]

anyone have any idea when this one is back from suspension?
Been a while, I'm guessing they are mounting their case over the NSW project?

[Kelpie]

anyone have any idea when this one is back from suspension?
Been a while, I'm guessing they are mounting their case over the NSW project?

I'd say you are right... but I am also keen to find out what is happening with ERG. No doubt this may take some time. Am I right that if they lose this one, it's all over for ERG, and if they win, they live to fight another day?

[tch]

I'd say you are right... but I am also keen to find out what is happening with ERG. No doubt this may take some time. Am I right that if they lose this one, it's all over for ERG, and if they win, they live to fight another day?

I'm curious about this one. Does anyone win cases like these against the govt?! Are ERG getting any new work?

[edaranjo]

No one seems to have answered the question on the last post. Is there any hope for the survival of erg?

[bebofpenge]

My opinion is that:


If the restructure is not approved at the AGM, ERG will be worth zip.

If the restructure does go through and the case against NSW govt fails, ERG will be worth zip.

If the restructure does go through and the case against NSW govt succeeds, ERG will be worth nearly $0.30 a share (on my back of an envelope calculation). This would enable ERG to buy back into its assests and return some cash to its shareholders or invest in new enterprises.

Sensible governments do not lose cases like this - they reach a settlement to cut their losses. Is the NSW govt. sensible? A settlement might be a fair bit lower than the 30 cents a share I calculated, but anything over $115m will get back an interest in ERG's assets.

A punter like me thinks that, at one cent a share, it is like backing an outsider in the Cox Plate. Outsiders do sometimes come home, so I've put my General Election winnings into ERG shares. I look at it as gaming with a different bookmaker.

[Judd]

What I do not understand is why the ASX has allowed this dog to allowed to continue to be traded on the ASX.

It has negative net worth.

[bebofpenge]

Now that they have swapped debt for know-how and contracts held, they hold enough capital to run their case against the NSW Government. The only asset shareholders will have is any judgement in ERG's favour.