I don't know how many ppl here follow the commodities market
but for many years now Teb Butler has been telling us of market
manipulation in the Silver and to a lesser extent the Gold market.
This is another interesting articule from him.
Cheers Ralph
TED BUTLER'S ARCHIVES
WEEKLY COMMENTARY
January 11, 2005
Same As It Ever Was
By Theodore Butler
(The following essay was written by silver analyst Theodore Butler. Investment Rarities does not necessarily endorse these views, which may or may not prove to be correct.)
Repetitive, that’s one word. Another is manipulative. I’m talking about the price action in silver (and gold). Once again, significant price movements were dictated by the trading tango between mechanical technical funds and the New York dealers. This is what moves the markets. In the short to intermediate term, it is the only thing that moves the markets.
Specifically, the dumping of thousands of contracts by the tech funds on the COMEX caused the latest drop in gold and silver prices. Certainly, nothing changed in the real world of metals that justified the price movements, just paper trading on the COMEX. Nothing new here.
Also, there is nothing new in the lack of reaction by government regulators, Exchange officials or silver mining CEOs, who all pretend nothing is wrong with pricing being controlled by speculators. As I said; repetitive.
But it would be wrong if you thought I was complaining. In fact, I’m ecstatic. The good news, of course, is that the dealers have been covering short positions aggressively. This, alone, is great cause for optimism about eventual higher prices. When the dealers have covered their short positions in silver, the risk is removed. I think we’re there.
The latest Commitment of Traders (COT) report is revealing. First, there was massive, massive liquidation in gold by the technical funds, with commensurate dealer short covering. More importantly, the massive liquidation continued in earnest from the Tuesday cut-off. I would estimate that we now have much less of a tech fund long and dealer short position in gold, than we had at the bottom in September, when gold was at $400.
From the top, I would estimate that the funds have liquidated 100,000 long gold COMEX contracts, with a big chunk coming in the current reporting week and the three trading days from the cut-off. It should be clear to you that this is what foretold and caused the almost $40 decline in gold from the top. That there are still gold promoters that don’t see this, or refuse to see it, is stunning. This sell-off should have been no surprise to anyone paying attention. On the positive side, gold should be cleaned out, or close to cleaned out, to the downside.
In silver, there was an unexpectedly small reduction in this week’s COTs. There had been a 30,000 contract (150,000 million oz) reduction in the dealer net short position in the weeks prior to this current report, and I had been expecting a further 10,000 contract reduction in this week’s report, indicating a major low-risk buy point. Instead, the report indicated only a 2500 contract reduction in the net dealer short position and no decrease in the tech fund long position. Or more correctly, no decrease in the non-commercial gross long category, which is where the tech funds are classified.
So what does this mean for silver? While the report could be correct in that the tech funds didn’t get completely liquidated yet, and we still need to witness further tech fund selling amid lower prices, my sense is that is not the case. Also, while it’s possible there may be errors in the current report (we’ve seen that before), my sense is that something else has happened that is of the utmost significance to the near term direction of silver prices.
This is obviously speculation on my part, so please treat it as such. I think that the tech funds were completely liquidated in silver, but the reason the latest COT report doesn’t reflect that, is because some other large (non-technically oriented) traders took their place. I base my speculation on daily price, volume and open interest data for the time period covered in the report.
If my speculation is correct, it could mean that some very strong hands have come into the silver market. This would be a sudden and very bullish development. Accordingly, I see very little reason not to embrace a full bullish tilt towards silver. This is another mother buy point, maybe The Buy Point.
If you still have any doubt as to what really moves the silver market, I invite you to reread prior articles to grasp this Commitment of Trader market structure phenomenon. If you’re short on time, just start with skimming the articles describing the previous major lows in gold and silver in September, staring with, "The Set-Up?" when the dealers had a relatively small short position. This market structure allowed the resultant $60 price rally in gold and an almost $2 rally in silver, which were ultimately capped and reversed with historic dealer scale-up short selling.
As happy as I am to be presented with another one of those "dimes to the downside, dollars to the upside" buy points, there is something even more compelling about the current set-up. It’s hard to pinpoint it, but there seems to be a confluence of factors suggesting that this silver buy point will be the "big one". The one that will make history.
For one thing, there is a widespread tightness in all mineral commodities, thanks particularly to China that just doesn’t seem to be going away. Inventories of all the industrial metals continue to drop, some, like copper, to alarmingly low levels. In addition in copper, the COMEX delivery situation still appears critical. I get the feeling the exchange just barely made it through the December copper delivery process by the skin of its teeth, with behind-the-scenes jaw-boning and private workouts. The COMEX will be lucky if it can make it through the next few months without a copper delivery problem, in my opinion. I keep mentioning this, as a delivery problem in COMEX copper may quickly shine the light on COMEX silver, given that COMEX silver has the largest naked short position in commodity history; a clear invitation to an eventual delivery problem, for a commodity in a structural deficit.
Further, actual silver deliveries to investors are still being delayed. The Central Fund of Canada will not be getting the silver it purchased a couple of months ago any time soon, and I have even heard reports that the other big Canadian institutional investor still hasn’t received all the silver it has been waiting for since early last summer. Remember, delivery delays are a symptom of shortage. While I can’t substantiate it, I get the feeling that the dealers are delivering silver to industrial users, ahead of investors to prevent problems from surfacing. Sort of like emergency room triage.
Silver Eagle sales for 2004 were strong, at over 9.6 million ounces, making it the 2nd best year in the past 15, and 3rd best since the program began. All told, when you add in Proof Eagles and other coins and all the commemorative issues by the US Mint, the government is buying a million ounces of silver a month on the open market. This demand should remain strong as far as the eye can see; or at least until a price emergency occurs in silver.
One final note – the gold exchange traded fund, GLD, has seen some impressive real gold accumulation on the gold price swoon, adding one million ounces in a few days. Coupled with the drastically improved COTs, gold could be set for an impressive bounce. As I’ve said before, if there was no such thing as silver, gold would be an attraction for me, particularly now. But with the COTs set up as I believe in silver, plus the always- improving fundamentals, why go fishing when you can shoot fish in a barrel?
clowboy
12th-October-2005, 08:35 AM
Hey all
Looking for some exposure to silver (bullion).
I have been wanting to buy some silver for quite some time now but the transaction costs on bullion are phenominal.
Anyone have any shares(silver co's etc) or other methods of gaining exposure to silver?
Also an interesting chart on silver......
http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html
Thanks
sam76
12th-October-2005, 09:06 AM
mmn
Hanrahan
12th-October-2005, 09:34 AM
Or BSG
crackaton
3rd-March-2006, 07:04 AM
Silver is out of control!! CUrrently sitting on 10.17 !!
michael_selway
3rd-March-2006, 08:43 AM
Silver is out of control!! CUrrently sitting on 10.17 !!
Overseas bonds fell. Japan is moving rates up and Europe is following. The days of cheap free money are coming to an end. also EFT approaches for silver. Happy days ahead!!
nizar
3rd-March-2006, 09:36 AM
Overseas bonds fell. Japan is moving rates up and Europe is following. The days of cheap free money are coming to an end. also EFT approaches for silver. Happy days ahead!!
what do u think the japanese rate increase will do for the japanese equities market? It should fall initially, then recover u would think yeh? EVery1 had to expect that rate rises naturally come when economies recover....
but of course, during last year, everytime interest rates rose up, market dumped by 100pts, even though people knew it was coming, funny how that happens...
crackaton
3rd-March-2006, 10:36 AM
CORRECTED - COMEX silver settles up 4.3 pct, market eyes ETF
Thu Mar 2, 2006 4:38 PM ET
Printer Friendly | Email Article | Reprints | RSS (Page 1 of 2)
In NEW YORK story headlined "COMEX silver settles up 4.3 pct, market eyes ETF," please read in paragraph 15, "June palladium gained $3.05 ..," instead of "June palladium gained 3.05 cents..." (Corrects amount)
A corrected version follows
NEW YORK, March 2 (Reuters) - U.S. silver futures vaulted to a 22-year high on Thursday, amid aggressive commodity fund buying that boosted the precious metal over $10 an ounce ahead of a widely expected approval of a silver exchange-traded fund (ETF), sources said.
"I think the market certainly positioned itself for that and as we got closer to that $10 mark, it just became irresistible and the stops went off and some fresh buyers came in," said Bernard Hunter, director of precious metals at ScotiaMocatta.
Silver for May delivery surged 4.3 percent, or 41.8 cents, settling at $10.208 an ounce at the COMEX division of the New York Mercantile Exchange, after dealing from $9.76 to $10.225, its loftiest level since early 1984.
"There was some more talk around during the day that the Securities and Exchange Commission is over its supposed guidance period for passing back comments and there was no news, so people were thinking maybe a decision must be imminent," Hunter added.
Investors were anxious to build long positions above $10 an ounce in expectation that the proposed silver ETF would be approved by the Securities and Exchange Commission, following the end of a 21-day public comment period on the ETF, ordered by the SEC.
Spot silver shot up to a 22-year high at 10.23 amid fund buying that was tied to the gains seen in the copper market, dealers said.
It last fetched $10.18/10.21, well above $9.75/78 late Wednesday. The daily spot reference rate was fixed at $9.7875 in London.
George Gero, vice president at RBC Capital Markets Global Futures noted that the metal has turned respectable and has attracted institutional interest since it had passed the 100,000 open interest mark.
As of March 1, open interest in the silver market was up 263 lots at 128,102 lots.
crackaton
3rd-March-2006, 07:53 PM
MEXICO CITY -(Dow Jones)- Miners returned to work at Mexico's Fresnillo silver mine Thursday after a one-day walkout that was part of a nationwide strike called by the National Mining and Metal Workers Union.
Fresnillo, in Zacatecas state, is the main silver mine of Industrias Penoles SA (PE&OLES.MX), the world's biggest silver producer with annual output of 80 million ounces. The mine also produces zinc and lead.
Penoles spokesman Luis Rey said 400 of the 600 workers at the mine voted to end the strike, which the 250,000-member National Mining and Metal Workers Union called late Tuesday in support of boss Napoleon Gomez Urrutia, whose leadership is being challenged.
Rey said the company was hopeful the decision by the Fresnillo miners would influence strikers at its MetMex metals refining facility in Torreon.
The Labor Ministry has declared the walkouts illegal.
crackaton
24th-March-2006, 08:12 AM
Silver up again. Looks like investors shifting from gold to silver.
gold has been trading in the 545-555 range for a while now, seems to be lacking direction or any incentive to go up further. It doesnt help that the us dollar is rallying....
Smurf1976
24th-March-2006, 12:10 PM
Unlike gold which is largely used for investment, ornamental uses etc, silver is absolutely critical in many silver-consuming applications at ANY price. Add that to the supply deficit and IMO you have the setup for a real move higher in silver.
michael_selway
24th-March-2006, 04:52 PM
Unlike gold which is largely used for investment, ornamental uses etc, silver is absolutely critical in many suilver-consuming applications at ANY price. Add that to the supply deficit and IMO you have the setup for a real move higher in silver.
Hi whats the supply deficit atm?
is there a site like LME supplies for base metals?
MS
COMEX warehouse data will give the best proxy.
However, be aware that COMEX warehouses not only store for industry, they store for private investors. So, where you might notice warehouse stock levels rising, do not assume it is because nobody is buying and taking delivery; they may have bought and simply stored atthe same location.
All data has interpretive issues that can sucker lay observers into wrong conclusions.
This site may have the answers you seek:
http://www.silverinstitute.org/
crackaton
25th-March-2006, 02:24 PM
MS
COMEX warehouse data will give the best proxy.
However, be aware that COMEX warehouses not only store for industry, they store for private investors. So, where you might notice warehouse stock levels rising, do not assume it is because nobody is buying and taking delivery; they may have bought and simply stored atthe same location.
All data has interpretive issues that can sucker lay observers into wrong conclusions.
This site may have the answers you seek:
http://www.silverinstitute.org/
Thx red good link
crackaton
17th-April-2006, 05:23 PM
20$ not far away!! go MMN and BSG and any other silver speccie or holder!!!
Silver Superspike
Clive Maund
As long-time subscribers to www.clivemaund.com are aware, I have a marked tendency to recommend the sale of things that become extremely overbought, which is generally a reasonable stance as I also have a similar tendency to recommend them long before they get to that state, in accordance with "The Prime Directive", which is to buy low and sell high. Thus, a wide range of silver stocks were recommended for purchase last year and early this year on www.clivemaund.com when they were on the bottom, including Avino Silver & Gold, Coeur d'Alene, ECU Silver, Excellon Resources and Silvercrest Mines.
There are occasions, however, in the markets when humongous "once in a generation" superspikes develop, which are very hard to predict but stand out on the charts for years afterwards like monoliths. In the earlier stages of a superspike it is tempting - and normal - to take profits due to overbought limits having been attained, or exceeded, but these superspikes have no respect for normal parameters, and it is galling to make what seems to be a prudent sale, only to see the item you have sold go from one seemingly crazily overbought extreme to the next.
I'm not easily astonished these days, but I was pulled up sharp early this weekend by a truly astonishing chart sent to me by a very learned and experienced subscriber in California. This chart is reproduced in two sections below - it had to be split in half as an attempt to reduce its size to fit on the page resulted in serious loss of picture quality. The chart is self explanatory and reveals that, although silver is seriously overbought, it is in a similar technical situation to that which prevailed before the incredible superspike in 1979. Could we see a repeat performance? - well, yes, and if what is written about the fundamentals of silver by people such as Ted Butler is true, then we have fundamental justification for it, and some would argue that it could go significantly higher than in 1979.
With special thanks to Claude in California, the annotations and commentary on the chart are his.
Alright, so how, as speculators, do we handle this extraordinary situation? We know we are looking at a market which is already very overbought, but which has a fair chance of generating a super-spike, in defiance of normal overbought parameters, resulting in huge gains. I believe the correct way to handle this situation is to put ourselves in position to make massive profits should this market go ballistic, but, should silver turn tail and go into reverse, losses are kept at a modest and acceptable level.
The correct speculative vehicle for maximising profit potential from this situation, and minimising damage in the event that the silver does not continue higher over the short to medium-term is call options in selected silver stocks. Options have the supreme advantage in the current situation in that they provide massive leverage on capital employed, while strictly limiting losses to the "stake money".
Coeur d'Alene is viewed as the large silver stock with the most upside potential, as it is still at a relatively modest price, and is arcing away from a massive Pan & Handle base, which it is important to note that it hasn't broken out of yet - when it does its rate of advance can be expected to accelerate significantly. This base area was identified a long time back and it was strongly recommended on www.clivemaund.com before the high-volume January breakout from the base. It was recommended to take profits in Coeur about a week ago on the site, but it has not reacted significantly which was considered a danger at the time, and is thus in position for rapid acceleration in the event that the silver spike intensifies. A recommended Traded Option in Coeur is the September 7.50 at 0.75, a good price. The strike price of this option is not much above the current price of the stock, so gains should be immediate if the stock advances. Furthermore, a silver superspike, should it happen, can be expected to occur before the expiry of this option.
Other attractive Traded Option contracts in the large silver stocks are described in the full version of this article in www.clivemaund.com in addition to several silver stocks that look relatively safe here and set to do very well indeed should a superspike develop.
Does what is written here represent an about-face from the cautious stance adopted by the writer some days back? Well, partly, because I don't KNOW whether silver will react here or whether it will continue to accelerate to even more extremely overbought levels. Most reasonable people would agree that a cautious stance at this juncture is quite understandable in view of the fact that the superspike scenario described here is a very rare occurrence - a once in a generation event. The purpose of this article is to outline an effective way to put yourself in position to capitalize on a superspike BIG TIME should it occur, without having to "bet the farm" on it. If you follow the strategy outlined here you will make huge gains if the superspike occurs. If it doesn't, it will cost you, but not very much.
20$ not far away!! go MMN and BSG and any other silver speccie or holder!!!
Wow those 2 have been doing very well!
Below is an old intersting article
thx
MS
---------------------
Silver lining for white metal producers
Date: 21/3/2006
Author: Robin Bromby
Source: The Australian --- Page: 30
Like gold, the price of silver has been rising steadily. In March 2006 it is trading at more than $US10 an ounce. Australia is the third-largest silver producer in the world, but there are few opportunities for local traders to invest in the market. BHP Billiton is Australia's major silver producer. Substantial producers, Perilya and CBH Resources, are locked into contracts. The only specialist silver miner is Macmin Silver, but production is not due to begin until later in 2006. Meanwhile, Barclays Capital Investors is planning to open a silver-backed exchange traded fund and the Dubai Gold & Commodity Exchange will shortly give the go-ahead for a silver contract
nizar
17th-April-2006, 09:49 PM
20$ not far away!! go MMN and BSG and any other silver speccie or holder!!!
Which of the two are closer to production?
crackaton
17th-April-2006, 09:55 PM
Which of the two are closer to production?
I'll toss a round fifty and see!!
rederob
18th-April-2006, 06:08 AM
$13.50 breached overnight.
45% gain in 2 months
Hope the lid doesn't fall off any time soon!
Go Macmin Silver Mine
crackaton
28th-April-2006, 09:20 AM
Got silver?
FOCUS
Silver bullet ready
SEC approves Barclays ETF, launch expected Friday on Amex
E-mail | Print | | Disable live quotes By John Spence, MarketWatch
Last Update: 11:55 AM ET Apr 27, 2006
BOSTON (MarketWatch) -- At long last, a silver exchange-traded fund that has been in the works for over a year is expected to begin trading Friday.
A registration statement for the highly-anticipated ETF from Barclays Global Investors was declared effective at 10 a.m. Eastern time Thursday by the Securities and Exchange Commission, clearing the way for the ETF to list, an SEC spokesman said.
BGI spokeswoman Christine Hudacko said the unit of British bank Barclays Plc (UK:BARC: news, chart, profile) (BCS : Barclays PLC
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BCS49.41, +0.49, +1.0%) plans to launch the silver ETF on the American Stock Exchange on Friday. The trust is expected to trade under the symbol "SLV," according to regulatory documents.
Earlier this week in a filing, Barclays said 1.5 million ounces of silver had been deposited in the trust, which is slated to charge a sponsor fee of 0.5% of assets.
Speculation on the silver ETF's imminent launch has been pushing up silver prices, which earlier this month hit multi-decade highs. The ETF, which for the first time allows individual investors to invest in silver without holding the metal or tapping futures markets, could bolster demand for the metal.
Dubbed iShares Silver Trust, shares of the ETF represent 10 ounces of the metal held in a vault. ETFs are baskets of securities that trade on exchanges like stocks, so investors can go short as well as long, and must pay broker fees to buy and sell shares.
Two existing gold ETFs, StreetTracks Gold Trust (GLD : streetTRACKS Gold
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IAU63.01, -0.79, -1.2%) , have been popular with investors. The first mover, StreetTracks Gold Trust, has gathered about $6.5 billion since its November 2004 inception in one of the more successful fund launches in recent memory.
The silver ETF has taken several twists and turns before it was finally approved by regulators.
The Silver Users Association, a nonprofit lobby group interested in keeping an orderly silver market, had led the opposition to the silver ETF. The group alleged the trust would take a large amount of silver off the market and push up prices, which would hurt firms that use the metal for business or industrial purposes and result in layoffs.
However, after a public comment period, the SEC said the silver ETF would increase the efficiency and transparency of the silver market, and that it would not spark liquidity problems.
Some traders are expecting the ETF may usher in a new bull market for silver if it attracts money from individuals, advisers, institutions and hedge funds looking for a convenient way to get exposure to the precious metal. However, if history is any guide, the trend with gold ETFs introduced around the globe has been a run-up in the weeks up to the launch with a pullback in the weeks after the start of trading. See earlier story.
crackaton
9th-May-2006, 06:57 AM
h a read
http://www.financialsense.com/editorials/phillips/2006/0508.html
rederob
9th-May-2006, 08:21 PM
I put a 32 cent buy order on MMN today, and it missed the mark.
A retrace to 32.5 fills the Feb 21 gap, and I think that will happen if silver closes below $13.65 tonight as a few of the silver longs may decide to take profits.
By the end of May I am tipping silver to have broken above $15 and settled for the duration at prices much higher. I base this on the probable removal of physical silver from Comex warehouses to satisfy the silver ETF: But I could be wrong.
IN MMN's case, the stock at end-Feb was trading at 38cents and silver hadn't even hit $10/oz. With silver in the mid-high$13 range and MMN at 33cents, it's a steal.
Although we can never be sure what the market will do, buying MMN tomorrow is a classic "no brainer".
crackaton
9th-May-2006, 09:19 PM
I put a 32 cent buy order on MMN today, and it missed the mark.
A retrace to 32.5 fills the Feb 21 gap, and I think that will happen if silver closes below $13.65 tonight as a few of the silver longs may decide to take profits.
By the end of May I am tipping silver to have broken above $15 and settled for the duration at prices much higher. I base this on the probable removal of physical silver from Comex warehouses to satisfy the silver ETF: But I could be wrong.
IN MMN's case, the stock at end-Feb was trading at 38cents and silver hadn't even hit $10/oz. With silver in the mid-high$13 range and MMN at 33cents, it's a steal.
Although we can never be sure what the market will do, buying MMN tomorrow is a classic "no brainer".
Yes the situation looks precarious. You have to have second thoughts when the ostello says there is another two years in the commodity boom, and that we should all be saving. And then references to Keating.
Will be very interesting this time next year.
crackaton
10th-May-2006, 06:37 AM
Buffett Loses His Silver
By: Theodore Butler
The recent revelation that the renowned investor Warren Buffett sold his silver was a mega-event. It was big news when Mr. Buffett bought silver some 8 or 9 years ago, and its sale is also big news. Let me state the facts as I know them, and then I’ll speculate.
Mr. Buffett always said he would make it known when he sold his silver and he kept his word, using the occasion of his company’s annual meeting to tell of the sale. While he did not reveal the exact amount, time and price of the sale, he indicated that he "sold too early" and did not profit from the sale. I found that very surprising and particularly unusual for Buffett.
According to public statements, Mr. Buffett had amassed a large chunk of silver (between 90 and 130 million ounces) by early 1998 at low prices (under $6). Mr. Buffett was very clear as to why he purchased the silver, citing the fundamentals in the same manner that I have described them and professing to be in for the long term. I wrote several articles at that time, praising and congratulating Mr. Buffett on his investment acumen.
Silver has hit recent highs amid those fundamentals playing out almost exactly as anticipated by Buffett and myself and others. Why would Buffett sell the silver too early and how could he not profit from the recent spectacular price rise the way so many others have profited? After all, this man is an investment legend.
Here’s what I think happened. Buffett didn’t sell his silver willingly, it was taken from him. He lost it. He lost it through speculation in derivatives of the very kind he publicly vilifies.
Those who have followed the silver market closely have come to know the incredible reliability of the pattern of tech fund/dealer buying and selling of silver futures on the COMEX. This pattern has been documented by the weekly Commitment of Traders Report (COT), which I have written about in countless articles.
I believe that Mr. Buffett (or his advisors) also came to appreciate the compelling logic and power of the COTs. I believe that Mr. Buffett (or his advisors) became a card-carrying member of the dealer silver wolf pack, skinning the tech funds for years. I also believe that Buffett’s involvement in beating the tech funds regularly ultimately ended with his silver being taken from him.
It worked like this. When the tech funds plowed onto the long side in silver as the price broke through various moving averages on the upside, Buffett (or his advisors) would sell short against his real silver holdings. When the tech funds finally sold as prices fell back through the moving averages, those shorts established by Buffett would be bought back., booking substantial recurring profits.
The beauty of the scheme was that these shorts would not be considered "naked" by the regulators, even though there were many more affiliated wolf-pack tag-along shorts that were naked. (Whether it is legal for someone with a very large real silver position to use that position to dominate futures trading under the guise of hedging is a matter that I won’t explore at this time.)
But what worked swimmingly for years, namely, the regularity of tech fund buying and selling at expected price points, stopped working about eight months ago. The tech funds plowed onto the long side back in September at around $7.50 and the dealers sold short aggressively. But instead of the price collapsing, as it always did in the past, the price of silver doubled. And it caught many, including me, off guard. (Not for core positions, but speculative trading). I think it caught Buffett off guard as well. So much so that he had no choice but to turn over his real silver to cover his going short at $7.50 or so. He could have bought it back at $12 or $13 and booked a big loss while keeping his silver, but that disclosure might have been embarrassing.
This would explain how Buffett emerged from silver basically breaking even and selling too early. I’m sure he made big profits trading against the tech funds for years, but it is up to him to disclose that. I must confess to a sense of disappointment, in that if my speculation is correct, I feel let down by Buffett, given his public statements on silver and derivatives. I’m sure that is of little consequence to him. More of a consequence to him is that he lost his silver playing derivatives. The lesson to be learned is don’t lose your silver by getting fancy.
That this is a bullish event for silver is beyond question. Buffett’s silver no longer overhangs the market and, more importantly, the silver wolf pack has lost a prime member, if not its leader (I still lean towards China as the leader, but that is also speculation). Given the current favorable market structure as defined by the COTs, the next rally will not be aggressively sold short by the dealers, as I have contended recently. My new speculation about Buffett only strengthens my contention. If I am correct, it’s watch out above.
MARGIN INCREASES
I would like to comment on the recent round of margin increases for COMEX silver futures. http://www.nymex.com/notice_to_member.aspx?id=ntm235&archive=2006
Long-time readers know that I rarely mention margin changes. That’s because I don’t think that all margin increases are bad and are designed to cause selling by long holders as many claim. Looking at the issue through my former broker’s eyes, I know that margins exist for one reason and one reason only – to protect the broker from unsecured client debits. Margins are increased when it is felt the brokers need more protection and reduced when less protection is needed.
But sometimes margins are used to influence the market. I feel that is the case with the last round of margin increases in silver. What made this last margin increase unusual is that, for the first time in 25 years, the COMEX differentiated margin requirements between the front months in silver (up through the September contract) and the more deferred contract months.
In my opinion, the COMEX has done this for one reason only – they see delivery problems ahead for silver and are attempting to clear out as many hangers-on as possible. This can also be seen in the backwardization that has been developing in the December 2006 and further out contracts of COMEX silver. The COMEX attempted to camouflage their real intent in silver by also making a differentiation in the nearby gold months versus the deferred gold contract months, but any serious market observer knows that is silly in gold, where there is not the hint of a delivery squeeze.
You must understand that all exchanges, including the COMEX, operate and set rule changes for the benefit of their most important members, and not the public at large. In most cases, the most important members are the commercial shorts. These shorts want as little outside pressure on silver deliveries as possible, and that is why they are making it easy and enticing for longs (and maybe even outside shorts) to clear out of the nearbys and migrate to the back months. As a general rule, whenever a financial institution attempts to get you to do something, the prime motive is for the benefit of the institution and not you. Please be guided accordingly.
BARRICKS BLACK EYE
Another development I’d like to mention is the quarterly earnings report by Barrick Gold. As expected, Barrick acknowledged another large gold short derivatives loss. Though this loss was buried deep in the body of the report, the combined first quarter realized and open loss grew to over $5.5 billion. No other entity has ever reported a loss so large.
The surprise in the Barrick report was the aggressive covering, or buy back, of the gold short position. Fully 25% of the year-end 20 million ounce gold short position was bought back in the quarter, with more since the quarter end. While the first 4.7 million ounces covered in the first quarter cost Barrick $814 million, or a loss of $173 per ounce, the last million ounces bought back after quarter end cost Barrick $386 million, or an astounding $386 per ounce. Aside from selling short at the absolute low in the gold price for the past few years and then buying back at the absolute high, there is no other way to lose that much money per ounce.
The other surprise in the Barrick report was that, even though they booked a big loss in covering some gold shorts, they still reported a profit. This is the financial equivalent of alchemy turning lead into gold. If I had a financial interest in Barrick, I would complain to the SEC and the Financial Accounting Standards Board. Since I don’t have a financial interest, I can only marvel at the creativity of the accountants and lawyers that Barrick employs that can magically turn losses into profits. I just wish I could get them to prepare my tax returns.
One thing I haven’t seen mentioned in the gold community has been the effect Barrick’s buy back has had on the price of gold. That gold has rallied sharply as Barrick has been buying gold is no coincidence. The almost 6 million ounces that Barrick has purchased recently is more than $3.5 billion worth of gold. It’s more than half of what the big gold ETF (GLD) holds. Remember, GLD took a year and a half to buy its gold; Barrick took a couple of months. If anyone has a better reason why gold has rallied sharply, I’d love to hear it.
mmandments.
crackaton
10th-May-2006, 06:38 AM
Rest of previous post:
NO INCREASE IN SILVER MINING PRODUCTION
One nugget contained in the Barrick report that I wasn’t looking for, was their projection for silver production for 2006. Barrick was the 5th largest company producer of silver in the world last year. http://www.goldsheetlinks.com/agtable.htm. Unless I’ve missed something, the 10 million ounce estimated silver production for 2006 is more than 50% less than the combined Barrick and Placer Dome 2005 production of almost 21 million ounces. I think this is due to the depletion at a number of their mines, most notably the Eskay Creek (acquired when Barrick bought out Homestake Mining).
Combined with the 20% cut back in production at the world’s biggest mine, the Cannington in Australia, announced a couple of weeks ago, it is hard to believe reports stating that silver production is due to increase this year. Not when the number one and number five producers are off so sharply.
THE ETF GAINS
I had planned to write about a number of different issues this week, in response to a large number of e-mails, but I am postponing them in order to deal with two very big silver events – the commencement of trading of the Silver ETF (Exchange Traded Fund) and the sale of silver by Warren Buffett’s Berkshire Hathaway. There is no doubt in my mind that both events are profoundly bullish for silver in the long term.
Since I had written my last article, the Silver ETF (AMEX symbol SLV) has commenced trading. As of the first week or so of trading, it has purchased and holds over 48 million ounces of silver. While it is no secret that I was skeptical that the authorities would approve a security that promised to greatly impact the price of silver, I was wrong. However, I was not wrong in predicting that there would be a big impact on the price of silver. It has doubled in the eight months from the initial ETF filing.
Now that the silver ETF is up and running, where do we go from here? Undoubtedly, the first week’s pace of silver accumulation will cool off, but will continue in time. We have witnessed this pattern in the gold ETF (GLD), namely, spurts and then plateaus in accumulation, but with higher totals a year and a half after initial issuance. There is no reason to expect a different pattern in silver. In fact, one could argue higher proportional accumulation in the silver ETF than in the gold version.
Just like the Great White Shark is said to be the perfect eating machine of the sea, the silver ETF is the perfect silver-eating machine. I say this because the ETF has created a connection between the best investment opportunity in the world with the largest investable pool of money in the world. Heretofore, institutional investors did not invest in silver, for the most part. Very few could deal in futures to take delivery or buy the real thing directly. Now they can, since most institutional investors can deal in stocks, which is the form of the silver ETF.
I believe the world of silver changed dramatically on April 28, 2006, when the silver ETF started trading and opened the silver door to institutional and retirement accounts. It is inconceivable to me that many institutional investors won’t come to grasp the true potential of silver as an investment and their newfound ability to participate in that investment.
Years ago, I wrote an article called "The Silver Challenge" in which I dared the reader to study closely the facts regarding silver and try and not end up buying silver. Those that took the challenge and did buy silver have been, and will continue to be, greatly rewarded. There are many intelligent institutional money managers who are constantly on the prowl for sound investment opportunities. Some number of them will find silver. There are other institutional managers who are already aware of silver’s merits, but have not been able to buy it because it was a metal, not a stock. Thanks to the ETF, silver is now a stock.
COPYCATS
Lastly, and reluctantly, I must once again confront the issue of plagiarism. I don’t find it complimentary or amusing when someone copies my work without approval or citation. I give my knowledge and opinion freely and openly. That does not mean it can be taken and reproduced without attribution for someone else’s monetary benefit. Let me remind those guilty that plagiarism is stealing, and stealing is against every legal, moral and religious tenet known to man. You don’t have to be a Bible expert to know this, just read the Ten Co
rederob
10th-May-2006, 04:12 PM
I put a 32 cent buy order on MMN today, and it missed the mark.
A retrace to 32.5 fills the Feb 21 gap, and I think that will happen if silver closes below $13.65 tonight as a few of the silver longs may decide to take profits.
IN MMN's case, the stock at end-Feb was trading at 38cents and silver hadn't even hit $10/oz. With silver in the mid-high$13 range and MMN at 33cents, it's a steal.
Although we can never be sure what the market will do, buying MMN tomorrow is a classic "no brainer".
Order now filled.
Gap at 32cents filled.
Ready to go to the races.
MARKETWAVES
11th-May-2006, 12:38 AM
Silver - Long Term View -
------------------------------------------
rederob
12th-May-2006, 02:17 PM
I put a 32 cent buy order on MMN today, and it missed the mark.
A retrace to 32.5 fills the Feb 21 gap, and I think that will happen if silver closes below $13.65 tonight as a few of the silver longs may decide to take profits.
By the end of May I am tipping silver to have broken above $15 and settled for the duration at prices much higher. I base this on the probable removal of physical silver from Comex warehouses to satisfy the silver ETF: But I could be wrong.
IN MMN's case, the stock at end-Feb was trading at 38cents and silver hadn't even hit $10/oz. With silver in the mid-high$13 range and MMN at 33cents, it's a steal.
Although we can never be sure what the market will do, buying MMN tomorrow is a classic "no brainer".
MMN trading at 36 cents at moment, giving me a 10% gain on a no brainer in a few days.
Although commodities are precariously high, the medium term view is for more of the same.
For the record, silver's relative strength has not hit the typical highs of its selldown points, so putting on another dollar in a week or so is technically a reasonable probability given the bull run across the metals complex.
mano
12th-May-2006, 05:03 PM
Hello Gang
my first post so be gentle with me :o
I am looking into buying silver. MMN and BSG
Have been following this thread and it seems to be the way to go,But have l left it too late??Thinking of 10k each
I am also looking for a broker , any recomendations?
Or is it better to buy online?
ta mano
rederob
12th-May-2006, 05:11 PM
MMN trading at 36 cents at moment, giving me a 10% gain on a no brainer in a few days.
Closed at 37cents giving a 15% gain in 2 days!
The likelihood of silver closing the month over $15 is exceptionally high.
The probability of MMN reclaiming its former glory at the 45 cent level is similarly high.
However the downside risk after today is mitigated by yesterday's gap filling and, although we are not quite there yet, medium term support is likely to settle around 40cents.
As silver's RSI is not as stretched as gold's, if gold falls of its perch next week, silver has the potential to run a bit longer.
As I post, gold has jumped $2 in a few minute, so if that trend holds, and silver is joined at the hip, we should see silver ingrained on screens above $15 come Monday.
kennas
12th-May-2006, 05:23 PM
On line's better when you know what you are doing. If you hve a friend in the game who can set you up, get them to help you. Otherwise do lots of reading and check out everyones web sites.
I hold MMN and it made a nice reovery last 2 days after taking a breather. I think all the bears jumped ship leaving bulls to buy in. Has great potential. Read up about it's project in Texas.
Having said that, there are people who consider the recent dramatic rise in commodoties to be overdone and the market is ripe for a correction. I'd hate to see you put your 20K into these 2 stocks and they tumble 20+% in a few days. However, some people on this site are very bullish and will say any pullback is a buying opportunity, or even that prices will just keep going up, up and up.
If you are really keen to invest that 20K perhaps you should think about putting 1/2 in a managed fund and then buy 3-4 different stocks to see how they go. Put MMN and BSG in that group if you like, but there are other stocks in different resources that you might want to consider.
You should do some more reading and make your own mind up. Or, get a recommendation for a good broker and give them a call to discuss what they can do for you.
rederob
12th-May-2006, 05:44 PM
You should do some more reading and make your own mind up. Or, get a recommendation for a good broker and give them a call to discuss what they can do for you.
Or
Buy MMNO at 17cents on Monday - half the price but twice the risk.
The newbie needs to have hairs on his chest (if I have mis-gendered you, apologies!).
As Macmin's options are already "in the money", it's a relatively safe play in a cleary volatile market.
My advice is to "get in there", or take the soft option and get into funds.
Then again, paper trading carries no risk, but will not put hairs on your chest.
Time for buying MMN cheap was yesterday, tho as kennas notes, look for dips in future if you want a safer entry (what the hell is safe in this ridiculously bullish market that refuses to correct?).
kennas
12th-May-2006, 05:50 PM
It's good to be decisive rederob. You should be an Army Officer.
I might look at those options myself. Silver and gold still climbing as we speak.
mano
12th-May-2006, 05:54 PM
Thanks kennas for that advice.
I have now made arrangements to speak with a very reputable broker on Monday.He is also recommended by 4 of my aquaintances.
I have spent the last 8 months reading up on the markets trying to get a good understanding of it.Its been slow going but l am getting there.
Now l feel l want/need to do something.
I will continue to read through this forum and learn.
Thanks again
ta mano
rederob
13th-May-2006, 08:44 AM
It's good to be decisive rederob.
I might look at those options myself. Silver and gold still climbing as we speak.
kennas
Monday should see another retrace in silver-related equities, so MMN and MMNO look like being reasonable targets.
Although I would not compare MMN to OXR ordinarily, go back to OXR's chart and look at the past 6 months: Notice the retrace in February to fill the slight gap of 178.5 to 179cents the previous month. That's where I place MMN now having filled the 32cent gap during the week.
Here's the kicker: If I am right, MMN's price will double by year's end.
I am content to be only half right.
mano
Until you take the plunge and put your money on the line, you won't understand what this game is about.
If you are a virgin, put out only what you are prepared to lose. You will understand the consequences and could equally end up presently surprised.
rederob
13th-May-2006, 11:44 AM
Just in case you thought the wheels fell off last night, take a look at where silver is relative to the recent high volatility across the metals markets:
rederob
15th-May-2006, 10:14 PM
Will have to revisit that previous chart as the price of silver has dropped around 10% today.
I said MMN was a no brainer, and it has sucked out my brains to prove it - gordammit!
My average purchase price is still under 20cents, so I think I am safe tomorrow - but famous last words, eh?
I guess I should ask myself "when is the best time to buy?'"
It's always at a correction, and I broke my rule bargain hunting when commodities were precariously overbought.
Will I do it again?
Yep.
I never know when the market will correct, so when a bargain comes up against the run of play, I jump on it and suffer the consequences.
If I did not think it was a bargain, I would not have bought it. It does not make sense to think that a stock must go up after buying it, so I will see what the next few days bring to determine how much self flagellation to administer.
nizar
15th-May-2006, 10:52 PM
I said MMN was a no brainer, and it has sucked out my brains to prove it - gordammit!
My average purchase price is still under 20cents, so I think I am safe tomorrow - but famous last words, eh?
I guess I should ask myself "when is the best time to buy?'"
It's always at a correction, and I broke my rule bargain hunting when commodities were precariously overbought.
Will I do it again?
Yep.
I never know when the market will correct, so when a bargain comes up against the run of play, I jump on it and suffer the consequences.
If I did not think it was a bargain, I would not have bought it. It does not make sense to think that a stock must go up after buying it, so I will see what the next few days bring to determine how much self flagellation to administer.
Excellent post rederob
its hard not buying into strength sometimes, but with me personally, i always break my own "buy the dips" rule also because im scared the stock will run away from me
maybe its time to adjust your buy orders down for 2mrw
as i personally think this correction may last for a few days or even weeks (like in oct last year), i wont be buying until we are on the way up again. IMO its much easier than catching a falling knife and plus i dont have enough cash to top up 2mrw and then the next day (?) and the next day (?) and the next day (?) trying to buy at the bottom like a champ
wayneL
15th-May-2006, 11:00 PM
Red,
Just noticed your software there..
Du bist Deutch?
rederob
16th-May-2006, 09:18 AM
Red,
Just noticed your software there..
Du bist Deutch?
Wayne
Please don't mention the war.
Jå?
$13.50 breached overnight.
45% gain in 2 months
Hope the lid doesn't fall off any time soon!
Go Macmin Silver Mine
Silver did fall off its perch.
But it is not dead.
$12 reclaimed overnight after a rapid recovery this week.
MMN's rise in price astonishingly was in advance of these moves in silver prices.
This is the strong time for precious metals and the next 6 months will likely see new highs for both silver and gold.
kennas
3rd-August-2006, 08:30 AM
Hi Rederob,
MMN has recovered ok with the POS over the past few weeks. Looks like an upward trend although not convincing yet. Broke through .35c but stalled slightly yesterday. Next resistance .40c.
I have silver down slightly at $12.08 atm, but up on yesterday I think. Hopefully this up trend continues. Looking forward to the next reports out of Texas.
kennas
3rd-August-2006, 11:21 AM
Gaining momentum
0102 GMT [Dow Jones] Silver's recent steady gains, technical momentum indicators suggest it's on track for $12.60 area, say analysts. "I will look for scale-up selling from $12.40 up to $12.90 and on the lower end, buying from $11.85 down to $11.35," says ScotiaMocatta analyst in technical note. Currently $12.06/oz, down 14 cents vs NY close, in line with modest gold, EUR/USD retreat, after peaking at $12.24 overnight, highest since early June, spurred by USD weakness, crude oil rise, Mideast tensions. Breach of $12 also triggered stops, exacerbating gains in relatively low volumes. (JAD)
rederob
15th-August-2006, 04:24 PM
kennas
From September precious metals are purchased in advance of Xmas jewellery demand, so physical offtake ratchets up metal prices.
Around the same time hurricanes storm into the Gulf of Mexico: Oil prices rise and gold is carried higher.
Base metals perk up from September because northern summer holidays and closures come to an end and its full steam ahead on the business/industrial production front.
This concurrence of events fuels prices that might otherwise lag or fall, so even out of favour metals can get dragged north.
I see oil prices as the key to unlocking all the metals from their consolidatory price range: And I see the continuing spectre of demand unsatisfied.
All this bodes extremely well.
For the naysayers, I can only ask that they watch these scenarios play out.
And they may then wonder where they read it all before!
rederob
2nd-January-2007, 07:06 PM
Yet another try for silver to recalim its former glory.
What's in store this time?
Can MMN give us clues?
Dr Doom
10th-January-2007, 04:18 PM
rederob, what do you make of the silver chart, bottom of the trend line?. Some analysts say silver will be a better performer than gold.
michael_selway
13th-January-2007, 05:30 PM
Yet another try for silver to recalim its former glory.
What's in store this time?
Can MMN give us clues?
Hi Red, before MMN, what other silver specialist producers are there?
thx
MS
subi1
13th-January-2007, 05:59 PM
Bolnisi gold should be producing by the end of the year or early next year in Mexico. www.bolnisigold.com.au is their website.
rederob
13th-January-2007, 10:52 PM
Hi Red, before MMN, what other silver specialist producers are there?
thx
MS
MS
I think MMN will be the only dedicated silver producer in OZ.
As subi1 points out, there are listed equities in Oz that have great silver exposure, and Bolnisi is definitely one.
BHP is the largest single miner of silver, at Cannington (Qld).
I recall Kingsgate mined good quantities of silver with its gold, but "recovered" only a small proportion of what was mined.
I believe the silver chart now speaks for itself: $12 seems strong support, and upside to new highs in 2007 seems a very probable event.
My forecast for silver is that it will open into 2008 above $15, which is only a modest 25% increase from this year's entry price.
I tend to err with my forecasts, usually them being too low.
rederob
26th-January-2007, 12:02 AM
Dr Doom
Apologies for missing your previous post.
The chart says "get out of my way".
It's a technical term I learned in Mt Isa when I discovered the biggest bull bar overrules any give way sign.
Smurf1976
26th-January-2007, 03:10 AM
MS
I think MMN will be the only dedicated silver producer in OZ.
As subi1 points out, there are listed equities in Oz that have great silver exposure, and Bolnisi is definitely one.
BHP is the largest single miner of silver, at Cannington (Qld).
I recall Kingsgate mined good quantities of silver with its gold, but "recovered" only a small proportion of what was mined.
Silver is also a byproduct of other mining companies. For example, Zinifex produces enough gold and silver at Rosebery (primarily a zinc mine that also produces lead and copper concentrates on site) to warrant recovering it and melting it down on site. :2twocents
Flying Fish
26th-January-2007, 07:52 AM
Silver is also a byproduct of other mining companies. For example, Zinifex produces enough gold and silver at Rosebery (primarily a zinc mine that also produces lead and copper concentrates on site) to warrant recovering it and melting it down on site. :2twocents
WMT used to have good stuff in TAS as well. The operation would be costly and smelly would it not?
rederob
24th-February-2007, 07:46 AM
It's taken almosrt a year to reclaim its former high, but look at this chart and see what it says:
wayneL
24th-February-2007, 08:31 AM
It's taken almosrt a year to reclaim its former high, but look at this chart and see what it says:
All it says is it's at the former high. What it does next might have a lot more to "say".
I reckon it wants uppage. But I think most would think the same. Which perversely, could be bearish.
Disclaimer: Long PAAS:(NASDAQ)
rederob
24th-February-2007, 08:52 AM
All it says is it's at the former high. What it does next might have a lot more to "say".
I reckon it wants uppage. But I think most would think the same. Which perversely, could be bearish.
Disclaimer: Long PAAS:(NASDAQ)
Wayne
I won't post the 5 year chart.
The long term uptrend is now supported by a recent series of higher lows.
The POS/POG ratio continues to rise.
POG and POS trend, and so does POO and POG: POO has fallen back considerably, while POG has been consolidating and climbing slowly.
Any sustained upward move in POO will carry into POG.
In the next 2 years unless there is a replacement for oil as an energy source, POO should be trading above $100/bbl.
My time frame is longer than that, so any perversely bearish near term dip in POG won't be too much of a worry.
I left out the impact of a weakening greenback, which continues to underpin gold's overall uptrend.
I hope to be talking to ducati in another thread later this year.
bean
24th-February-2007, 10:29 AM
Silver is a long term investment, market is thin so can have wild trades, It may be hit again, but one day gold to silver ratio will be 16 to 1 at least and more likely 8 to 1. or less. And remember all the gold ever mined in the world still exists silver most is gone. So if one believes what gold bulls say gold will get to then look at those ratio's and imagine the price of silver.
Buy silver bullion and hold don't worry with swings.
bean
9th-March-2007, 12:26 AM
Keep reminding people that SILVER does exist, or does it?
A gold bug should always have Silver as an option.
There must be some Silver bugs out there.
When will US$15.00 oz be passed??
chops_a_must
9th-March-2007, 12:42 AM
A gold bug should always have Silver as an option.
There must be some Silver bugs out there.
I much prefer the look of silver to gold for some reason.
Seriously considering buying physical silver if there is a correction.
Like you said, silver reserves are being depleted faster than gold. And a lot of new high tec developments seem to consume a lot of silver, so long term the conclusion seems obvious to me.
rederob
7th-April-2007, 04:20 PM
Silver is poised to hit $15 again in months to come.
The 5-year chart shows strong consolidation, with support firmly pegged at $12:
explod
7th-April-2007, 05:12 PM
I have been accumulating silver for a couple of years from $8 per ounce. It is about 15% of my investment portfolio and gold 25%. Perth Mint probably the safest place to buy in the world though I prefer to store it myself. I buy from A.J. Matthey who have a branch in most AU capitals. Have been a follower of Robert Kiyosaki's investment ideas (author of Rich Dad Poor Dad et al.) who recently stated that silver at any price below $20 an ounce is a bargain. Kiyosaki's forcasts from years back have been spot on. A Jason Hommel who publishes "The Silver Stock Report" (Google it) is very bullish and gives a lot of information and threads to others. In my own view as currencies, particularly the US dollar, depreciate, and they will soon due to massive debt, it may be realistic to see gold hit 10 times its current value and if we look at the ratio of the last jump to silver in 1980 silver will rise exponentially higher.
My humble opinion only and resemblances to fact may be coincidental
kennas
7th-April-2007, 06:01 PM
it may be realistic to see gold hit 10 times its current value.....My humble opinion only and resemblances to fact may be coincidentalHooley dooley!!! As in $6700 an oz? I'd like to see that!
rederob
7th-April-2007, 06:34 PM
Hooley dooley!!! As in $6700 an oz? I'd like to see that!
It's a bit conservative.
POG will hit the DOW number when its in full flight, based on its historical precedent.
So POG at $10k and silver over $100 is only as far fetched as the next recession.
bean
7th-April-2007, 11:13 PM
POS will in the next few years get tio a ratio of Gold of 16 to 1 or 8 to 1 now for the bulls on Gold we have all heard many values given as to what gole will reach from US$2,000 to US$10,000
The only thing is a small hicup coming next week and the week after.
I hold physical silver and hold it through up and downs but hold no shares (gold or silver) at the moment. I am waiting.
But TED BUTLER I think is the best to read. Jason Hommel a bit overboard with his predictions and tends to get on after what may have been said by others.
But I have about five people in at work who also now have physical siver and it is mainly from what Ted Butler or Jim Pupavla(Financial sence) have said.
bean
28th-April-2007, 12:12 AM
Because of my posts on the price of gold being bearish well why not involve Silver. Why because Silver will be the best metal peformer for this decade.
When to buy not now but soon. I cannot give a bottom because one should take each day as it comes. Apart from MMN and maybe CQT I would like to know of any other silver producers (or close could mine other metals but silver must be at least 50% of there mining) and no hedging but be up and running within 18 months. Silver will drop soon but I would like to pick up bargains. So I would like to research your selections within the next wek or to before silver makes a bottom.
rederob
28th-April-2007, 09:15 AM
Because of my posts on the price of gold being bearish well why not involve Silver. Why because Silver will be the best metal peformer for this decade.
When to buy not now but soon. I cannot give a bottom because one should take each day as it comes. Apart from MMN and maybe CQT I would like to know of any other silver producers (or close could mine other metals but silver must be at least 50% of there mining) and no hedging but be up and running within 18 months. Silver will drop soon but I would like to pick up bargains. So I would like to research your selections within the next wek or to before silver makes a bottom.
bean
Silver was at a good buying price yesterday.
I believe this run will take it over $14, $15 and up to $17..
With the usual bumps!
Look at OZ companies with South American production to do your research.
nizar
28th-April-2007, 09:22 AM
It's a bit conservative.
POG will hit the DOW number when its in full flight, based on its historical precedent.
So POG at $10k and silver over $100 is only as far fetched as the next recession.
And that will put the DOW at..... ?
rederob
28th-April-2007, 10:22 AM
And that will put the DOW at..... ?
nizar
Can't you do the maths?
Freeballinginawetsuit
5th-May-2007, 02:09 AM
Would have to agree that Silver is one to watch near term. Chart wise its in a clear uptrend with a near term spike not out of the question.
Fundamentally silver is clearly a tight commodity with reserves diminishing and supply constrained, forward wise :2twocents.
x2rider
5th-May-2007, 03:40 AM
Instead of going hardout on the silver as a straight buy ,why don't you just do a spread trade.
You might sell gold to the value of say 50k and buy silver to the value of 50k. Whether the price of gold drops and silver does as well is of no consequence it is the ratio between them that you are playing.
The ratio at the moment is around 50.75. If this ratio drops say 49.75 then you are in the money regardless of what the two commodities are doing.
Some reckon that because of the shortage of silver, because most is unrecoverable, this ratio will continue to fall and could get down to under 20.
Just an easy way to get some exposure to silver and get a little protection as well.
That said if you are bullish on gold to silver then trade the other way.
Cool .
Martin
rederob
7th-May-2007, 09:01 PM
If one follows commodities, and does not watch Lars' take on trends, one is not getting a good take on high probability plays:
rederob
7th-May-2007, 09:07 PM
I should add that gold and silver tread a similar path, although silver's percentage change is likely to be stronger than gold's in the present environment.
Lars' above October high for silver sees over 50% upside possible.
That would place gold over $1000 before year's end.
I think a target in the lower $800s is more probable - in other words we should be looking in the 20% range instead while oil prices are being contained.
constable
7th-May-2007, 09:13 PM
I should add that gold and silver tread a similar path, although silver's percentage change is likely to be stronger than gold's in the present environment.
Lars' above October high for silver sees over 50% upside possible.
That would place gold over $1000 before year's end.
I think a target in the lower $800s is more probable - in other words we should be looking in the 20% range instead while oil prices are being contained.
Might help to explain why mmn is looking bullish!
rederob
14th-May-2007, 09:58 PM
Borrowed the below chart; like the idea of the cycles shown: We are due for a strong cycle north, and soon.....
bean
5th-June-2007, 12:33 AM
Interesting reading for Silver investors
and if you invest in silver and don't read what Ted Butler says each week well why invest in silver?
http://http://www.investmentrarities.com/05-22-07.html
How can I invest in silver(except physical) in Aussie?
Many thanks.
PS: I am remember the price did reach US$540 since last March. Personally, I thing the bottom might be around US$600.
ta2693
7th-July-2007, 08:10 PM
Dear All,
I am new here and I want to consult a question:
How can I invest in silver(except physical) in Aussie?
Many thanks.
PS: I am remember the price did reach US$540 since last March. Personally, I thing the bottom might be around US$600.
1 buy silver future contract
2 buy silver company shares
3 buy gold company shares whose price positive correlated with silver price
eagleou
7th-July-2007, 08:54 PM
1 buy silver future contract
2 buy silver company shares
3 buy gold company shares whose price positive correlated with silver price
Thank you ta2693.
genus
21st-July-2007, 02:34 PM
1 buy silver future contract
2 buy silver company shares
3 buy gold company shares whose price positive correlated with silver price
I'm new to precious metals trading also and understand I can invest through these 3 methods. But how do people buy and hold physical gold or silver bullion? What are the pro's and con's in holding physical versus said methods?
rederob
21st-July-2007, 03:08 PM
I'm new to precious metals trading also and understand I can invest through these 3 methods. But how do people buy and hold physical gold or silver bullion? What are the pro's and con's in holding physical versus said methods?
None of the above give you "physical" metal to hold.
Bullion merchants are the way to go for physical ownership.
There are storage costs for "safe" holdings, but these are small compared to the value of the metals.
A better way to collect physical silver may well be through various silverware where there is intrinsic value to the article as well as upside through the metal content.
Boyou
21st-July-2007, 03:31 PM
Hi rederob, You seem to be pretty knoweledgable with regard to Silver..SO a question for you.
I have seen that Gold and Silver move in step with each other.Is this just an historical relationship or are there underlying fundamentals as to why they are linked?.
I am watching the POG and POS very closely as I have taken some shares in junior miners in both old and silver.
Cheers
rederob
23rd-July-2007, 11:44 AM
Hi rederob, You seem to be pretty knoweledgable with regard to Silver..SO a question for you.
I have seen that Gold and Silver move in step with each other.Is this just an historical relationship or are there underlying fundamentals as to why they are linked?.
I am watching the POG and POS very closely as I have taken some shares in junior miners in both old and silver.
Cheers
Boyou
They both were "real money" for generations, so I guess there is a strong historical relationship.
More recently I think its useful to simply notice the correlation of movements, while price magnitudes are a different kettle of fish. For example, this year silver peaked in February and is still a dollar off that high. While gold peaked in April and is almost back at the same level.
Fundamentally there is a massive "above ground" supply of gold - mostly in bank vaults. While for silver the "above ground" stockpile is constantly drawn down because silver is an industrial metal, in the main, and has strong consumer demand.
ducati916
24th-July-2007, 07:29 AM
I posted this analysis on my blog during May, just noticed the Silver thread;
The supply and demand curves for silver as a commodity have had over the last fifteen years extended periods of deficits. This is partly due to the fact that silver supply is in large part a by-product of other metal production, or from scrap.
Silver Supply;
Silver is mined world wide, much as previously noted from polymettalic mines.
Approximately 530 million oz mined each year
Approximately 230 million oz year from scrap [mostly jewelry]
Total production:
Estimated mine production…………………….62 billion oz
Bars & Coins……………………………………..21 billion
Jewelry…………………………………………..20 billion
Fabricated products……………………………21 billion
Silver Demand;
On the demand side, the price for silver is economically insensitive. This is due to the following characteristics of silver;
*price increases in silver can be generally passed onto the consumer
*price increases in silver do not impact profit margins
*world has large inventories of silver [5000 yrs+]
The interesting story with silver, is in the same way as gold, silver is traded as a financial asset. Silver, like gold has during periods of history acted as money or a currency of trade.
Currently silver trades in financial asset forms;
*Physical
*Futures
*Options
*ETF’s
*Common shares of production companies
Volume of trades;
Circa 50 million oz/150 million oz per day
Circa 30 billion oz/year
During the 1990’s this was substantially higher.
The Gold/Silver ratio [basis of trades]
This ratio has through traders lore been mooted to exist and be a profitable way to trade the two separate commodities.
The ratio has varied through history from a low of 14/1 to a high of 100/1
The fluctuations are quite high. Silver has had historically a more volatile price.
Just as a point of interest, “The Wizard of Oz” was an allegorical tale depicting the political struggle between William J Bryan Vs W. McKinley in the US Presidential race and the issues surrounding the Silver Purchase Act 1890
At about this time there was available an arbitrage available between a Gold dollar, and a Silver dollar that could be bought for $0.60 [risk free profit of $0.40]
Major Holders of Silver;
Berkshire Hathaway [BRK.A]
Valuation;
There are three equally valid methods of valuing silver. The first is on a commodity basis, the second on a financial asset basis and the third on an aggregate ratio basis.
Commodity basis……………………………Value = cost of production
Financial basis………………………………Value = inflation hedge
Ratio basis ………………………………….Value = aggregate ratio over 5 yrs
Ratio value =……………………………….65.0
[$662.0 * 65 = $10.18] thus @ $13.0 overvalued
Inflation value =……………………………$5.38
Commodity value…………………………..[no value calculated yet]
With Silver closing at $13.003/troy oz I would say that silver is currently very overvalued on a fundamental basis [financial] and is in speculative territory.
After I have calculated the *production value* a slightly clearer picture might present itself.
The production value of one of the higher efficiency miners and an aggregate cost basis of some randomly picked silver miners gave a production value of;
Production value = $3.90
Investment value = $5.38
Ratio value = $10.18
Spot price = $13+
Some rather large differences in the prices
bean
24th-July-2007, 07:32 AM
Boyou
Fundamentally there is a massive "above ground" supply of gold - mostly in bank vaults. While for silver the "above ground" stockpile is constantly drawn down because silver is an industrial metal, in the main, and has strong consumer demand.
Yes all the gold mined in the world still exists...whereas silver has been used and gone.
POS well doing nicely just sitting under resistence US $13.40
So when POG next moves up expected silver to take that out.
And in % terms silver will advance at a quicker rate than Gold
rederob
24th-July-2007, 10:38 PM
ducati
I think your silver analysis is as useful as your views on BHP.
Just as BHP has doubled your price estimates and is still rising, I expect silver will do the same.
Yet again I find your contributions an excellent basis for going long on a contrary position.
Many thanks.
Boyou
25th-July-2007, 06:33 PM
Thanks rederob ,bean and ducati for the response.Really am chewing hard on all the historical info and analysis
Must say though,ducati ,that your final points re the value of silver have thrown me a bit!
"TheProduction value = $3.90
Investment value = $5.38
Ratio value = $10.18
Spot price = $13+
Some rather large differences in the prices"
__________________
Perhaps the market for precious metals defies logic and confounds figures?
Cheers :confused
Enoch
25th-July-2007, 06:41 PM
ducati
Just a quick note Berkshire Hathaway no longer owns silver. At the annual meeting last year Warren Buffet announced he had sold all of his silver.
In addition he mentioned that the investment was perfect, however, he sold too early. This suggests he sold before the price explosion up to $15 last year.
Interestingly the amount of silver he had was roughly the same amount which the Silver ETF was required to store. Maybe they did a deal?
Anyway I would like to know where the price of silver would have ended up if he hadn't sold and after the ETF announcement.
Much higher than $15 I bet.
For those of you who care most of the companies other than BSG/CDE, perhaps Macmin with proven and probable silver reserves are located outside of Australia. This is of course those companies whose primary focus is silver (i.e. excluding the Base metal plays such as RIO and BHP which produce silver as a byproduct to the other metals)
ReaderRob I agree with you big gains may be ahead for Silver particularly since most of the silver ever mined has been used in industry and unrecoverable. Potentially this could make silver perhaps an even better play than its big brother Gold.
In addition research is continually finding new uses for it all the time particularly in the area of water purity, medicine ect. Their even putting silver particles in socks under underware to assist people avoid such fungle infections as Tinea and of course Jock Rot.
Not to metion the potential silver has with electro conductivity.
Short term maybe silver might come back, long term it will probably do well.
Best regards to all those who have accumulated silver assets.
"Its the honour of kings to search out a matter."
Enoch
ducati916
26th-July-2007, 03:09 AM
et al
I hadn't realized that BRK.A had sold the silver investment, thank's for the update/correction. [I originally posted the analysis in May on the blog, thus some information is a little out of date]
The variability in prices demonstrates the variability in investment, speculation, inflation and production values that of course will all fluctuate as the varient conditions change.
Thus, dependant upon your classification and timeframes, silver could be a buy or sell.
jog on
d998
rederob
26th-July-2007, 06:58 AM
et al
The variability in prices demonstrates the variability in investment, speculation, inflation and production values that of course will all fluctuate as the varient conditions change.
Thus, dependant upon your classification and timeframes, silver could be a buy or sell.
jog on
d998
ducati
How wise.
Things change.
And we can buy or sell.
Shall pass on these pearls of wisdom...... over time.
Enoch
26th-July-2007, 11:12 PM
ducati
rederob
You might already know of this website. If not this is it.
www.silverstrategies.com
Check it out.
Interesting silver chart at the bottom. It shows short term i.e. 2-3 months
a possible lower silver price.
As discussed and as per my previous post long term 2-3 year time frame gains are likely.
"It's the honour of kings to search out a matter"
Regards
Enoch
bean
7th-August-2007, 04:09 PM
POS well doing nicely just sitting under resistence US $13.40
So when POG next moves up expected silver to take that out.
And in % terms silver will advance at a quicker rate than Gold
Mentioned this july 24th and look what happened it went down shortly after but its sitting back near there again.
Was that the low in the US gold and silver Indexes last night?
Boyou
28th-October-2007, 10:58 PM
Just got Compareshares newsletter in my inbox.
Interesting explanation regarding Silver's lag behind POG
http://www.compareshares.com.au/zeal19.php
Cheers Ya'll :)
bean
7th-November-2007, 08:37 AM
With the POS breaking out investers will be looking for silver companies/shares.
BHP biggest producers in Aust, however a large rise in POS will really do very little to there share price.
PURE silver plays in Aust
Count them on one hand. So when money is looking to find silver companies.
May 2006 when POS last at these prices
Macmin Silver (MMN) silver was in the .40's
Yesterday .25
At the moment I believe its the only PURE silver producer in Aust.
A few explorers like MAR, CQT, SVL.
Some goldies also have a bit of silver.
bean
7th-November-2007, 12:41 PM
The silver rocket has hit town up about 3.5% last night and up another 3.5% so far today
Flying Fish
7th-November-2007, 12:59 PM
With the POS breaking out investers will be looking for silver companies/shares.
BHP biggest producers in Aust, however a large rise in POS will really do very little to there share price.
PURE silver plays in Aust
Count them on one hand. So when money is looking to find silver companies.
May 2006 when POS last at these prices
Macmin Silver (MMN) silver was in the .40's
Yesterday .25
At the moment I believe its the only PURE silver producer in Aust.
A few explorers like MAR, CQT, SVL.
Some goldies also have a bit of silver.
I don't understand mmn. I believe there production costs go up with rising aussie, so maybe not a good bet???
what about bsg,
bean
7th-November-2007, 01:52 PM
I don't understand mmn. I believe there production costs go up with rising aussie, so maybe not a good bet???
what about bsg,
Yes but so does all commodity producers.
But they are the only true silver play producer.
The silver market is so small that very few companies.
Money looking for a safe haven moves to Gold then also silver.
Money going into silver has to go somewhere.
And there is not many silver shares for that money to go into.
Nothing wrong wrong with BSG they have silver and I did mention some goldies have silver.
Enoch
7th-November-2007, 11:02 PM
I posted a link earlier to a website with a stack of silver companies on it.
www.silverstrategies.com
One of the companies mentioned on the website Garibaldi has a property adjacent to BSG. If you look at Garibaldi's company website, on the website it quotes the following:
"Limited sampling of previously untested mineralization exposed in recent road cuts along the projection of the most westerly of the regional structures returned gold values ranging from several hundred ppb gold to 5.3 grams per tonne and silver values ranging from 337 grams per tonne to 4,770 grams per tonne."
Enoch
7th-November-2007, 11:28 PM
Interesting.
4438 views on this thread.
79186 views on the gold price - where is it heading thread.
Imagine where the silver price would be if 5% of the money invested in Gold bullion moved into silver bullion.
bean
8th-November-2007, 12:04 AM
Interesting.
4438 views on this thread.
79186 views on the gold price - where is it heading thread.
Imagine where the silver price would be if 5% of the money invested in Gold bullion moved into silver bullion.
Exactly why I invest in Silver one day when the money flows. Silver is such a small market. If someone wants to invest in silver shares. Look at say how many Uranium shares there are yet they have made multiple gains.
As I have said Australian Silver shares can be counted on one hand.
kennas
8th-November-2007, 03:48 AM
MMN is just about the only one I follow.
Had a good day yesty.
Temjin
8th-November-2007, 12:25 PM
Here is a very interesting commentary on silver. Interview with Ted Butler.
The biggest surprise I got out of this is that it seem the commercial are shorting silver in an amount that there are not enough physical silver on the surface of this planet to back on.
Shocking indeed. Seem there is a possible price shock (in a favourable direction) if this is all true.
Temjin
25th-November-2007, 11:10 AM
All these talk about gold in the other thread, silver seem to be really under appreciated at the moment.
I think Silver has far more potential than Gold in the current market climate. While silver is regarded as a commondity because of it uses in various industries, it has also been regarded as a sister of gold for long term value storage. The manipulation in the silver market is so much stronger than gold, and the fundamentals for silver is far stronger than gold as well.
My belief is that if anyone want to ride the current gold bull market, don't overlook Silver because it will tag along as well but with far better performance.
In inflated term, silver need to reach US $200/oz to reach it last historic peak.
BREND
28th-November-2007, 05:10 PM
All these talk about gold in the other thread, silver seem to be really under appreciated at the moment.
I think Silver has far more potential than Gold in the current market climate. While silver is regarded as a commondity because of it uses in various industries, it has also been regarded as a sister of gold for long term value storage. The manipulation in the silver market is so much stronger than gold, and the fundamentals for silver is far stronger than gold as well.
My belief is that if anyone want to ride the current gold bull market, don't overlook Silver because it will tag along as well but with far better performance.
In inflated term, silver need to reach US $200/oz to reach it last historic peak.
Agree, I had bought Comex Silver at 14.40, working to add on at 14.10.
bean
1st-December-2007, 12:53 AM
All these talk about gold in the other thread, silver seem to be really under appreciated at the moment.
I think Silver has far more potential than Gold in the current market climate. While silver is regarded as a commondity because of it uses in various industries, it has also been regarded as a sister of gold for long term value storage. The manipulation in the silver market is so much stronger than gold, and the fundamentals for silver is far stronger than gold as well.
My belief is that if anyone want to ride the current gold bull market, don't overlook Silver because it will tag along as well but with far better performance.
In inflated term, silver need to reach US $200/oz to reach it last historic peak.
I am a silver bull this will not got get many hits except from those that like silver.
So those that do mention silver stocks
At the moment all we want is silver stocks!!!!!!!!!!
What do we have
MMN
MAR
SVL
I have others but???
Silver bugs our time is growing nearer...no one realises that we will be the biggest winners
refined silver
1st-December-2007, 02:52 AM
For silver stocks you have to add BSG. With its takeover by CDE, happening this qtr, (and the CDE stock will trade on the ASX) it should become within a year or so the biggest primary silver miner in the world, mining about 30m oz Ag/a. Currently BDG + CDE and PJO.V about A$2.5b market cap. Big enough for some institutional money, but still tiny really.
kennas
1st-December-2007, 03:26 AM
I am a silver bull this will not got get many hits except from those that like silver.
So those that do mention silver stocks
At the moment all we want is silver stocks!!!!!!!!!!
What do we have
MMN
MAR
SVL
BSG and KMN are predominantely Ag but people think they're Au, especially KMN. Both Mexico though.
bean
8th-December-2007, 10:42 PM
BSG and KMN are predominantely Ag but people think they're Au, especially KMN. Both Mexico though.
KMN... moves in stops and starts will be dormant for a while then explode to the up side. I always sell before it does but longterm holders a good stock to hold.
BSG... now the interesting thing is CDE its charts should be watched (also (CDE) its longer term charts (10-20 years) if the Gold Bull is alive and kicking more than likely CDE will take out its old highs in a few years:)
Being a subscriber on a US site a lot of mention of US stocks (naturally) but CDE is a favorite for trading. currently breaking out but some expect it to behave like it normally does move a bit higher (US$4.50 - US$ 5.20) and have a sharp pullback (US$3.50) before the true break occurs? A lot may depend on the action this week in POG and POS.
For the chartist POS is in a falling wedge???
For the last month have been trading BSG in relation to the way the US traders are trading CDE. Its been giving me a % here or there.
To think I first bought BSG @ .17 cents a few years back (Shows buy and hold can work O/K :banghead:)
Another roughie RDM ???
This week in POS May become a raging Bull? or may become a raging bear on the General Markets which may take the POS and silver stocks down.
To a bullish bottom.
The US FED meets and the markets are going to move the 'day after' the decision. The US$ has a bit more to rise?
But long term POS will rise in % terms greater than POG
So those that believe POG will reach US$ 2,000 or more
POS ratio 16 to 1 ?
bean
9th-December-2007, 12:52 AM
Interesting.
4438 views on this thread.
79186 views on the gold price - where is it heading thread.
Imagine where the silver price would be if 5% of the money invested in Gold bullion moved into silver bullion.
I dream of the day:)
When it happens people will say we were smart investors.
But we already know we are.
Bought my first bullion bar @ US 4.54 oz
And yes looking at the hits after a post shows that our Bull is nothing which means we still have bargains...Maybe a close above US$20 may bring a few more hits?
Plus Silver is the most volitile thing to play....but its rewards will be the greatest. (can it hurry up)
Boyou
9th-December-2007, 01:08 AM
Hey bean. Investors are a bit like Inventors.
They dream .They have faith in their judgments.And they back them with their own money.I do beleive in Silver also.Have an interesting interest in MMN and sniffing for bullion :D
HI HO Silver!!
bean
9th-December-2007, 01:31 AM
Hey bean. Investors are a bit like Inventors.
They dream .They have faith in their judgments.And they back them with their own money.I do beleive in Silver also.Have an interesting interest in MMN and sniffing for bullion :D
HI HO Silver!!
New investors to Silver can be put of by its wild swings. Uranium once there was a couple of stocks now!!!!
Silver well they will never be many and a good example is RAU (which is not silver) if the same amount of money just in that one stock moved to a few(well there is not more than a couple any way) silver stocks I would look at a 30% plus gain!!!!! being in Silver I could be sitting on a 'GOLD MINE"
sleepy
9th-December-2007, 01:52 AM
Hi all,
Hopefully I'm not to late to the party.
When I did a 'principal activity search' for 'SILVER' at ASX website
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/CompanyInfoSearchResults.jsp?searchBy=principalAct ivity&allinfo=&asxCode=&companyName=&principalActivity=silver&industryGroup=NO
the following companies came up.
I would also be interested in learning if anyone is actually holding
a) any of the above stocks at present
b) silver stocks outside aussie (i.e., in US, Canada, UK)
or c) if they are holding physical silver (i.e, bullion) instead.
sleepy :D
Boyou
9th-December-2007, 02:03 AM
sleepy..If you read my post ..just a couple back you would see I have MMN.
And I am thinking hard about Bullion.A dealer here in Brisbane will store it in a secure vault FOC..as long as I buy 5Kg .minimum
ON that subject ..do any bullion holders store their Silver under the bed? or in a hole in the ground? ..Funny concept ..Dig it up..then bury it? Vaults sound like the way to go :)
explod
9th-December-2007, 07:55 AM
sleepy..If you read my post ..just a couple back you would see I have MMN.
And I am thinking hard about Bullion.A dealer here in Brisbane will store it in a secure vault FOC..as long as I buy 5Kg .minimum
ON that subject ..do any bullion holders store their Silver under the bed? or in a hole in the ground? ..Funny concept ..Dig it up..then bury it? Vaults sound like the way to go :)
In 03 I purchased my first silver, 15 kg, put it in a plastic bag and buried in the vegie patch in the back yard in a spot identifiable by my wife and a grandson. I keep it all in a vault now to compy with Super Legislative rules, costs $330 a year and probably worth it. Still think the garden idea is bullet proof if you pick the right spot.
DreamSciTech
9th-December-2007, 10:22 AM
Dear All
I just remember that I put a chart on silver on gold forum, which certainly is a wrong place. Perhaps it would be better that I past my chart here.
http://www.dreamscitech.com/others/silver.GIF
The data in this chart is updated until December 6, 2007. As can be seen in the lower panel of chart, the mid- and long-term trend of silver (blue line) is well below the average value of mid- and long-term trend (pink line).
On the other hand, the history did not show the immediate rebounding, and there are only several cases that the blue line stops at this level (-5). So more likely, the price of silver will go down further.
Is it reasonable?
You can download the data on this chart as well as other indexes here (http://hongguanglishibahao.googlepages.com/home)
Have a great week
dreamscitech.com:)
Temjin
9th-December-2007, 10:27 AM
Hi all,
Hopefully I'm not to late to the party.
When I did a 'principal activity search' for 'SILVER' at ASX website
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/CompanyInfoSearchResults.jsp?searchBy=principalAct ivity&allinfo=&asxCode=&companyName=&principalActivity=silver&industryGroup=NO
the following companies came up.
I would also be interested in learning if anyone is actually holding
a) any of the above stocks at present
b) silver stocks outside aussie (i.e., in US, Canada, UK)
or c) if they are holding physical silver (i.e, bullion) instead.
sleepy :D
Someone posted this link previously, http://www.silverstrategies.com/defaultIE.aspx
PAAS and SSRI are my big cap favourites. (long term invest purposes)
I wish there was a silver companies ETF out there. :(
Boyou
11th-December-2007, 05:22 PM
In 03 I purchased my first silver, 15 kg, put it in a plastic bag and buried in the vegie patch in the back yard in a spot identifiable by my wife and a grandson. I keep it all in a vault now to compy with Super Legislative rules, costs $330 a year and probably worth it. Still think the garden idea is bullet proof if you pick the right spot.
Hi explod ,Just getting around to a response to this,life's been a bit hectic of late.
Was actually just joking about burying the stash in the yard ..BUT whatever works for you.The Bullion dealer in Bris will store FOC in a bank vault next door.Am thinking of buying a fair few Kg and don't want to have to take a wheel barrow down George St . to stash it in my ute for the trip home!
In fact that's what put me off the idea of bullion ownership ,at first ,till I did some phoning. Next week I'm off to the dealers with my cash. Hi Ho Silver
Cheers :)
refined silver
11th-December-2007, 05:34 PM
I think the Brissie dealer has a bit of a wait for Ag bars, they've just swapped suppliers as the previous one put their mark-up way up. Maybe they've just got a load in.
The vault in the bank across the road, is ok if it is allocated silver. Eg your silver is named, and you have the bar serial numbers. Otherwise if it is unallocated, it means you have receipt saying you have some Ag, but they could have sold it, or whatever, as very few people would come to redeem their silver at the same time it means the bank doesn't have to keep much on hand. Sort of like what they do with your money! They lend it out again, only problem is if they go belly up, you've lost your silver, whereas if it was "allocated", with specific numbers its yours and can't be lent out sold etc.
Boyou
11th-December-2007, 05:39 PM
Thanks for the tip ,refined silver .The company I refer to is Ainslie Bullion Co.
I will be sure to ask if it is allocated. After all I want to be able to visit with my bars from time to time ;)
refined silver
11th-December-2007, 05:48 PM
Hi all,
Hopefully I'm not to late to the party.
When I did a 'principal activity search' for 'SILVER' at ASX website
http://www.asx.com.au/asx/research/CompanyInfoSearchResults.jsp?searchBy=principalAct ivity&allinfo=&asxCode=&companyName=&principalActivity=silver&industryGroup=NO
the following companies came up.
I would also be interested in learning if anyone is actually holding
a) any of the above stocks at present
b) silver stocks outside aussie (i.e., in US, Canada, UK)
or c) if they are holding physical silver (i.e, bullion) instead.
sleepy :D
Hi, all has anyone done more legwork on these? I have many overseas silver stocks, but am trying to reduce overseas holdings as I see too much risk with the chain of custodians holding your stocks, many of whom are up to their neck in the sub-prime mess.
Of course many stocks have some silver. Virtually any zinc/lead miner has some silver as a by product, what we are after is companies where silver is a significant proportion of their business. In my opinion, the following are the main Aus silver companies with SIGNIFICANT silver exposure:
1. BSG - today suspended from quoatation, merging with CDE, should be about the biggest primary silver miner in the world.
2. MMN - silver producer in Qld, other Ag dev and exp. >80% of assets in Ag
3. KMN - Large Au/Ag/Cu developing mine in Mexico - 25% in Ag at current prices. (Also Mb/Cu project in Qld - which while a bonus, would further dilute direct Ag exposure.
4. MAR - small JORC Ag deposit, plus Cu and Au exp projects.
5. SVL - SIlver explorer - no resources yet.
6. CBH - Zn/Pb miner with some added Ag. Ag maybe approx 10-15% of resources
Can anyone add to this list with details??
refined silver
11th-December-2007, 05:53 PM
For overseas silver stocks, here is one the best introductions to companies.
http://www.silverstrategies.com/defaultIE.aspx
Most companies here are 25%-99% silver companies. However, as just mentioned, the chain of custodians needed for overseas stocks puts you much further away from your assets than you want to be, especially in a financial meltdown. Hence be very careful.
refined silver
11th-December-2007, 05:54 PM
Thanks for the tip ,refined silver .The company I refer to is Ainslie Bullion Co.
I will be sure to ask if it is allocated. After all I want to be able to visit with my bars from time to time ;)
Yes I know! They seem a good company. They often use a 5kg Ag bar as the doorstop. Seriously!!
Enoch
12th-December-2007, 10:53 PM
CDE can be traded from today on the asx.
The asx code is CXC.
Any ideas on the most undervalued silver play either on the ASX or TSX?
Some of the Canadian juniors appear undervalued at the moment.
Think there is a lot of tax loss selling after the sub prime debacle.
If Silver holds next year. I think the Canadian Juniors will do well in the first quarter of 08.
bean
13th-December-2007, 12:48 AM
CQT may be another for the list???
Silver miners in the US...yes there is there tax time/tax loss selling going on.
POS has held up pretty well...Read somewhere where silver may actually outshine POG in the next advance. I posted the bullish and bearish numbers for POG...silver if POG does the bullish part has to break US$15
For CXC/BSG US$4.50 have been told/read at resistence could have a sharp drop back however may break out to US$5.20 It is at the crossroads so next couple of days a critical re POG and POS
Regarding physical silver...I read many years ago can't remember who...said hold at least 10% in physical. I have about 10-15 %. of my portfolio not silver portfolio.
refined silver
13th-December-2007, 07:21 PM
Most leveraged Aus miners - you can't go past MMN - for a producer, unhedged, no debt, soon to be 2moz/a for a fully diluted market cap of $120m , not even the Candian juniors can match that. Problem is its a bit of a dog of a stock. Instead of moving fluidly with the Ag price it languishes for ages, and then suddenly runs. If Ag goes $25 on the next move, I'd expect MMN to 4-fold from here (double its May 06 high)
Other cheap Ag Canadian juniors include ASM.V, CZN.TO, GGC.V, SBB.V and if you want an absulte speccy - try IDLM.PK - very illiquid, but has a 20% royalty on Hecla's Lucky Friday mine, which should start paying in 6-9 months. Hecla had built up a large loss on LF which had to be recouped before the royalty would start to be paid. IDLM has a market cap of $20m, and a lot of land in US's biggest silver district.
Disclaimer: I own all the above mentioned stocks
Enoch
13th-December-2007, 11:05 PM
Hi Refined Silver.
I looked at Macmin back in 2003 took a large holding in BSG instead. Best decision I ever made.
Candian Zinx looks attractive 3 billion pounds of Zinc and 2.2 billion pounds of lead.
Wonder if you can let me know the exploration potential.
They only have 70 million ounces of silver.
You may know from previous posts that I also own Sabina. Have done so for a couple of years. Its my largest overseas holding.
You have to love the fact that a director of Wolfden (taken out by Zinefex) is also a director of Sabina. Although If Sabina was taken out I wouldn't want it taken out two cheaply given the size of the resource.
I also own Garibaldi, IPT, SRLM, RVM and MTB.
MTB have dropped to about 23 cents Canadian. They have silver assays as follows 5.18m 5258 gpt and 8.53m 2260 gpt. They also have a 50% ownership is the Silver Coyne project with very good gold grades.
RVM have also fallen a bit. The problem their is the environmentalists don't want the mine to go ahead. It will likely go ahead in the future as the govenment I believe is behind development particularly since it has been demonstrated that with a little funding from Revett the habitat will actually be improved.
Looking forward to the reopening of the Sunshine Mine I think this one also has been a little subdued given the negativity from some of the letter writers. What I like however is management has seemed to have continued about their business even with all the negativity however unjustified it was.
Its good to see this thread getting some attention. I think in the next few years the views and posts on this thread will increase considerably.
refined silver
14th-December-2007, 01:02 AM
Hi Enoch,
For CZN.TO all the infrastructure was set by the Hunt Brothers in the late 70s, its 95% ready to go. As far as exploration - only know the resources you mentioned are zone 3 out of 12. So 11 other areas open for exploration once zone 3 starts producing.
I also own SLRM and RVM - which is also incredibly undrevalued. SSRI are as blue chip as you can get in silver companies. TRGD.PK is also very cheap now, it has 3 producing mines, many projects, including one adjoining BSGs and is under $50m MC.
Flying Fish
14th-December-2007, 07:30 AM
MMN management are bad
Boyou
14th-December-2007, 07:36 AM
MMN management are bad
Would you care to elaborate on that statement FF?
Gotts say I really dislike this sort negativity without supporting information. ;)
I am a holder.
Cheers
refined silver
14th-December-2007, 12:20 PM
I agree FLying Fish, unless you give some serious supporting data, your post is a waste of space and not appreciated.
On the positive for Management they've taken a piece of land to a producing mine, less than 1% of all explorers do that, they have done the same with New Guinea Gold - NGG.V, and FNT which they are also involved in has 2.7moz Au, plus 1.5bp of Cu. In my mind thats pretty good management. They understand mining, not like pretty boy internet or ex-financial services companies, who changed their names to jump on the commodities boom, but have no clue about geology or mining.
Flying Fish
14th-December-2007, 12:35 PM
Really. No announcements of late, and all they ever do is dilute shareholders interests and issue more oppies for themselves.
On top of that there quotes for production of silver were based on an aussie dollar than was in mid to low 70 cents us.
refined silver
14th-December-2007, 06:12 PM
I don't have a problem with their announcements. Co's which hype stuff every week generally spend far more time on promotion than doing the business there're supposed to.
Dilution has been minimal lately, you can't bring a project to production without funds, and I'd rather some dilution and no debt and no hedging, rather than no dilution and huge debt and hedging to the banksters.
Re oppies - I also don't particularly like this either, but hard find a company that doesn't do it.
Real1ty
14th-December-2007, 06:37 PM
I am also a holder of MMN and another of the Silver believers.
There have been some issues recently, and production for the December quarter of the 130,000 oz will not be met.
MMN have a unique product with the powder they produce and although they have had a few issues, i still believe in the company.
As for announcements, what can you announce if there is no news?
I will also mention i bought at .32c so am sitting on a loss but will continue to hold.
clowboy
15th-December-2007, 01:12 PM
Well I rang the perth mint today to get a price on some silver bullion and they have no stock
LOL
Boyou
16th-December-2007, 06:37 PM
One to add to the Silver prospectors.
Sinovus Mining SNV
Newly listed (11 Dec.) Prospecting for Silver and Gold in China
From Company announcements:-
Xiangguang Project Grades of 238g/t to 331g/t Ag
Daxing'anling Project Application for 20 Licences covering 1,300 km2
Shares issued at .20 and now at .19. Anyone with any thoughts on this one? Refined Silver? You on this yet?
Cheers :)
refined silver
17th-December-2007, 06:00 PM
One to add to the Silver prospectors.
Sinovus Mining SNV
Newly listed (11 Dec.) Prospecting for Silver and Gold in China
From Company announcements:-
Xiangguang Project Grades of 238g/t to 331g/t Ag
Daxing'anling Project Application for 20 Licences covering 1,300 km2
Shares issued at .20 and now at .19. Anyone with any thoughts on this one? Refined Silver? You on this yet?
Cheers :)
Hi Boyou,
No hadn't seen it, will have a look. Everyone has their own criteria for choosing stocks, having lived 4-5 years in Central Asia, in ex-soviet states and next door to china, I am very wary on political risk. Not so much nationalisation, which is a possibility, but more that there is so much corruption here, that everyone takes a piece of the action is anything is profitable, so that I fear there's very little left for shareholders. On the other hand, China will be world's biggest Au producer next year overtaking SA, and has a lot of Ag too. So who know's??????????????
doogie_goes_off
17th-December-2007, 11:14 PM
Ral1ty - are you still holding MMN at ~20c ? You said:
"I am also a holder of MMN and another of the Silver believers".
Bit scary !!
Real1ty
17th-December-2007, 11:20 PM
Ral1ty - are you still holding MMN at ~20c ? You said:
"I am also a holder of MMN and another of the Silver believers".
Bit scary !!
Yes doogie i am still holding MMN.
Unfortunately i am sitting on a loss with them but will hold for the long term
sleepy
18th-December-2007, 09:47 AM
Well I rang the perth mint today to get a price on some silver bullion and they have no stock
LOL
Clowboy .. did they say why?
Darn thats where I was hoping to get some and have it stored
sleepy :)
clowboy
18th-December-2007, 11:00 AM
Nah,
I didn't bother asking I just chuckled. I mean one would assume that they where unable to cater for supply as of late?????
Anyway they said that you could still buy some at current prices and pick it up upon delivery.
If you where going to have it stored there im sure there would not be a problem.
Im going to try again today, let you know how I get on
BREND
18th-December-2007, 05:15 PM
Silver, gold and oil are my most bullish commodities for 2008. Looking to buy some silver if it goes down to US$13.00.
bean
9th-January-2008, 05:44 PM
The poor man's Gold. As POG marches towards US$ 1000
Lets not forget Silver.
March silver is not to far away from suggesting it is about to make a move to above US $ 18
refined silver
14th-January-2008, 07:23 PM
Richard Russell of Dow Theory fame is now bullish on silver.
Thats quite a bullish recommendation from such a respected figure for such a tiny market.
"I Like Silver" by Richard Russell
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell011408.html
Kauri
14th-January-2008, 07:28 PM
Richard Russell of Dow Theory fame is now bullish on silver.
Thats quite a bullish recommendation from such a respected figure for such a tiny market.
"I Like Silver" by Richard Russell
http://www.321gold.com/editorials/russell/russell011408.html
It's all in the timing???
Elsewhere, another day and there is no real shock from the news of another new commodity high. Into European trading and silver hit a 27-year high as gold pushed to fresh record highs above USD 900 per troy ounce.
refined silver
17th-January-2008, 05:10 PM
It's all in the timing???
Yes, very nice timing in fact. Neglecting the past couple of days which may be just testing the breakout, (if we get back down there), here is a couple of slightly longer term silver charts.
refined silver
17th-January-2008, 06:09 PM
This was a post from GATA re the silver ETF (SLV) in the US. ETFs might seem easy but its NOT the same as physical.
-----------------------------------
Possible SLV Inventory Swap Explanation
Hi Bill -
I think the 20,000,000 oz SLV inventory shell game that transpired on 12/31/07 can be easily explained IF we examine who is involved and what their motivation is.
First of all the "Custodian" of SLV is JP Morgan (I could probably stop here for folks at GATA). JP Morgan provides all the info to the iShares Trustee on the silver stored by themselves and the "Sub-Suctodians" for the "Authorized Participants" (note that no SLV share holders own any silver). This silver can be stored anywhere in the world and has only "limited audit" requirements. The silver can also be swapped, pledged, leased and loaned without violating the prospectus. It is more than likely that most of the SLV silver is held in COMEX warehouses. That would give the perception of much more physical silver than is truly available.
It is obvious that the 20M oz deposit and withdrawal was clear maneuver to "paint the tape" on the Year End physical silver held at SLV...but why? Since SLV is only a derivative of the price of silver there would be no reason to bump the amount held for the SEC or other regulators. The prospectus clearly points out that the amount of silver held and the price of silver have no real relevance to each other in SLV. There are no requirements to increase or decrease the amount held in trust...it is a perception issue that enforces the "value" attributed to the shares of SLV.
So who would want (or need) a quarterly or annual official verification of real Physical Silver being held by a party?
Only one group that I can think of....THE CFTC!
The first "pertinent surveillance question" the CFTC must address in their oversight of the silver market is "Are the positions held by the largest long trader(s) greater in size than deliverable supplies not already owned by such trader(s)?" It's their main concern.
"Physical-delivery commodities. Futures contracts that require the delivery of a physical commodity are most susceptible to manipulation when the deliverable supply on such contracts is small relative to the size of positions held by traders, individually or in related groups, as the contract approaches expiration. The more difficult and costly it is to augment deliverable supplies within the time constraints of the expiring futures contract's delivery terms, the more susceptible to manipulation the contract becomes."
Pertinent surveillance questions for such markets include:
Are the positions held by the largest long trader(s) greater in size than deliverable supplies not already owned by such trader(s)?
Are the long traders likely to demand delivery?
Is taking delivery the least costly means of acquiring the commodity?
To what extent are the largest short traders capable of making delivery?
Is making futures delivery a better alternative than selling the commodity in the cash market?
Is the futures price, as the contract approaches expiration, reflecting the cash market value of the deliverable commodity?
Is the price spread between the expiring future and the next delivery month reflective of underlying supply and demand conditions in the cash market?
By adding 20M oz on Dec. 31st JP Morgan and the other "Sub-Custodians" were proving to the CFTC, by way of the SEC end of year filings from SLV, that they had access to 170M oz of physical silver that could be delivered against their net short position on the COMEX if delivery were required. Once the end of year silver amount for SLV was officially recorded the silver was "withdrawn" and apparently put to use somewhere else (delivery, loan, lease, etc.)
The good news is that the fact that this maneuver was needed by the silver manipulators tells me 2 things:
1) The CFTC is finally examining the large traders for rule violations.
2) The fact that silver manipulators only borrowed the silver for a day means they needed that 20M to patch another hole in the dyke.
Anyway you slice it, the unprecedented, decades long silver manipulation is on it's last legs.
The silver ROCKET will truly be a sight to behold!
Bix
BREND
17th-January-2008, 06:24 PM
I think almost time to short silver futures.
Boyou
19th-January-2008, 09:46 AM
Silver looks to have started a run up.
Kitco spot price $16.09 up 1.19% ....I know one swallow does not a summer make,but it's a start! :)
explod
19th-January-2008, 12:05 PM
I think almost time to short silver futures.
Why do you think that Brend?
If a statement is to be made should it not be accompanied by your reason. Unqualified statments have no value. The idea of our discussions is to share information from which we may gain understanding from each other. In my humble opinion.
bean
19th-January-2008, 01:12 PM
Silver looks to have started a run up.
Kitco spot price $16.09 up 1.19% ....I know one swallow does not a summer make,but it's a start! :)
I posted an article on the Gold thread from Ted Butler re this current sell off and he said that it just creates a great buying opportunity.
Hope POG has alsmost finished correcting and POS can move up to US $17
this coming week;)
kennas
19th-January-2008, 01:18 PM
Why do you think that Brend?
If a statement is to be made should it not be accompanied by your reason. Unqualified statments have no value. The idea of our discussions is to share information from which we may gain understanding from each other. In my humble opinion.Yes Brend, your post has not only no value, but potentially negative value to the forum. Members are expected to post analysis here on the forum to back up their claims. Future posts such as that will be deleted without notice. Cheereo! :) kennas
refined silver
20th-January-2008, 02:17 PM
Shorting silver even more so than gold, is trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller, gonna get squashed fingers, win pennies if lucky, but worse, miss out on any serious wins because you had no fundamental clue about one of the biggest bull markets of our lifetimes.
Interesting, BHPs Cannington mine is still closed, cos of 2nd worker death in 13 months. Terrible for the family, and our prayers are with them. They have failed to stop a govt report being released into their safety standards.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23077998-3102,00.html
It is also the biggest silver mine in the world >40m oz per year, Over 8% of world supply. Thats not going to help the price stay low, while it stays shut.
Real1ty
20th-January-2008, 02:38 PM
Shorting silver even more so than gold, is trying to pick up pennies in front of a steamroller, gonna get squashed fingers, win pennies if lucky, but worse, miss out on any serious wins because you had no fundamental clue about one of the biggest bull markets of our lifetimes.
Interesting, BHPs Cannington mine is still closed, cos of 2nd worker death in 13 months. Terrible for the family, and our prayers are with them. They have failed to stop a govt report being released into their safety standards.
http://www.news.com.au/couriermail/story/0,23739,23077998-3102,00.html
It is also the biggest silver mine in the world >40m oz per year, Over 8% of world supply. Thats not going to help the price stay low, while it stays shut.
Thanks for that feedback RS.
That is very sad for the families as you said but could have some implications for prices, that were looking good anyway, depending on how long the closure is of course.
They are producing a lot of Silver pd, so an extended period of closure, will certainly have a supply effect, at least shortish term.
Cheers
BREND
20th-January-2008, 07:03 PM
Yes Brend, your post has not only no value, but potentially negative value to the forum. Members are expected to post analysis here on the forum to back up their claims. Future posts such as that will be deleted without notice. Cheereo! :) kennas
Hey hey, hold your guns! I have been giving geniuine advices all along. :)
Its a seasonal effect. Precious metals price always come down in end Jan - Feb, because strong demand from year end had started to cool down.
However I do agree that 2008 is the year for precious metals, but you still need to find a good entry level.
refined silver
20th-January-2008, 09:12 PM
Hey hey, hold your guns! I have been giving geniuine advices all along. :)
Its a seasonal effect. Precious metals price always come down in end Jan - Feb, because strong demand from year end had started to cool down.
"Always" is a bit of silly word to use for seasonals in PMs. A 7-8 yr chart of this PM shows this is not always the case.
Bush Trader
21st-January-2008, 07:26 PM
Does anybody know if there is an Aussie ETF for silver?
Cheers
BT
BREND
22nd-January-2008, 12:39 AM
"Always" is a bit of silly word to use for seasonals in PMs. A 7-8 yr chart of this PM shows this is not always the case.
I had shorted Comex Silver at US$15.89.:)
BREND
22nd-January-2008, 04:14 PM
"Always" is a bit of silly word to use for seasonals in PMs. A 7-8 yr chart of this PM shows this is not always the case.
I shorted 1 lot of Comex Silver at US$15.89, today its trading at US$15.48, earning USD2,050 in just 1 week. Not so silly har...:p:
Temjin
22nd-January-2008, 06:09 PM
Does anybody know if there is an Aussie ETF for silver?
Cheers
BT
Nope, there isn't one here unfortunately. :(
The SLV, DBS or DBP is your best bet, only through the US Stock Exchange though.
I shorted 1 lot of Comex Silver at US$15.89, today its trading at US$15.48, earning USD2,050 in just 1 week. Not so silly har...:p:
I hope your stop loss is sensible too especially when so much volatility is going on right now. :) How much were you prepared to risk in that contract? Hope it's around 1-2% of your equity. heh
refined silver
22nd-January-2008, 06:50 PM
I shorted 1 lot of Comex Silver at US$15.89, today its trading at US$15.48, earning USD2,050 in just 1 week. Not so silly har...:p:
Didn't get stopped out when it rose to well over $16 after your post, or did you put the short on days after your post?
I didn't say a short-term short was silly, if s/t trading is your game, I said saying silver always goes down Jan/Feb was silly as it doesn't.
BREND
22nd-January-2008, 09:11 PM
No stops for me on silver, its only 1 lot.
Intends to buy copper tonight.
BREND
23rd-January-2008, 01:46 AM
After hearing of interest rate cut by Fed, I took profit on silver. And then bought Comex Copper and Mini Dow Jones.
refined silver
23rd-January-2008, 02:47 AM
After hearing of interest rate cut by Fed, I took profit on silver. And then bought Comex Copper and Mini Dow Jones.
Was there any profit left? By 9.22am NY time when the news of the cut hit, Silver was between 15.70 and 15.80, (after backtesting the breakout as I suggested with charts a few days ago on this thread.)
BREND
23rd-January-2008, 03:11 AM
Was there any profit left? By 9.22am NY time when the news of the cut hit, Silver was between 15.70 and 15.80, (after backtesting the breakout as I suggested with charts a few days ago on this thread.)
Yes, bought back at 15.78, profit is US$539.08.;)
refined silver
23rd-January-2008, 03:52 AM
Yes, bought back at 15.78, profit is US$539.08.;)
Well done! Tough way to make a living though;)
BREND
23rd-January-2008, 11:00 AM
Well done! Tough way to make a living though;)
:) I had also long cotton and took profit on 2 year Treasury Bonds.
Enoch
23rd-January-2008, 11:46 PM
Ron Paul calls for Gold and Silver to back the US $.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=nWyygiyPbdA
explod
25th-January-2008, 08:04 PM
Finally we seem to be on the way. Gold is now at an all time high. Silver needs to more than double from here to do the same. What a bargain.
Enoch
25th-January-2008, 11:58 PM
Finally we seem to be on the way. Gold is now at an all time high. Silver needs to more than double from here to do the same. What a bargain.
I agree with you that silver is heading up. However just wondering how high the silver price would have gone without the hunt brothers trying to corner the market?
explod
1st-February-2008, 08:18 PM
Well we have finally cracked the $17 mark. Has been a tough resistance to crack. Willl be interesting to see where to from here. Strong breaks in silver often lead gold uplegs too.
Kauri
2nd-February-2008, 08:25 AM
gold futures are lower following a massive sell order in the silver pit, 25mn oz, that cracked silver futures down to $16.79.
Cheers
......Kauri
refined silver
12th-February-2008, 10:23 AM
Silver also had a new 27yr intraday and closing high today of $17.47.
Not everything is going down at the moment. At some stage the commodity based equities WILL reflect the prices of their underlying resources and play a massive catch-up.
ocgunner77
16th-February-2008, 03:15 PM
Given the recent gains in Silver, why have the share prices of both CXC and MMN continued to slide? Any thoughts?
Btw - am new to the silver game but hold in gold stocks; mainly juniors. Based on what I've read though, the gold/silver ratio may correct soonish, with this year possibly helping it along its way. My main concern is whether to go with a big producer like CXC or speculate with MMN.
ithatheekret
16th-February-2008, 03:57 PM
Given the recent gains in Silver, why have the share prices of both CXC and MMN continued to slide? Any thoughts?
Btw - am new to the silver game but hold in gold stocks; mainly juniors. Based on what I've read though, the gold/silver ratio may correct soonish, with this year possibly helping it along its way. My main concern is whether to go with a big producer like CXC or speculate with MMN.
I think unless they are a so called bluechip ( some aren't that blue more a tinge of ) , and they're up and running , selling a product , they'll all just suffer the Dec-March duldrums . The last few years you could set your clock by it . It's just a market sync thinglybob that every trader/investor has to become acquainted with .
The spec world is one built on promises , those that can deliver get the plaudits , the rest cop ....... Get round to the cyclicals and you can time " roasts " to it .
I go back on all the promises first and see who has delivered , then try to get in sync with the share ones after .
ocgunner77
17th-February-2008, 01:55 PM
I think unless they are a so called bluechip ( some aren't that blue more a tinge of ) , and they're up and running , selling a product , they'll all just suffer the Dec-March duldrums . The last few years you could set your clock by it . It's just a market sync thinglybob that every trader/investor has to become acquainted with .
The spec world is one built on promises , those that can deliver get the plaudits , the rest cop ....... Get round to the cyclicals and you can time " roasts " to it .
I go back on all the promises first and see who has delivered , then try to get in sync with the share ones after .
Thanks for the thoughts ithatheekret - much appreciated. Will do some more research but it looks likely i'll go with CXC at this stage. Apparently they'll have a new silver mine up and running in Potosi Bolivia very soon. Its a coincidence that I've actually been to that part of Bolivia last year and actually visited a huge silver, lead and zinc mine that apparently helped prop up the Spanish empire for a few hundred years! Looks like they believe there's a lot more where that came from...
refined silver
18th-February-2008, 10:03 PM
Given the recent gains in Silver, why have the share prices of both CXC and MMN continued to slide? Any thoughts?
Btw - am new to the silver game but hold in gold stocks; mainly juniors. Based on what I've read though, the gold/silver ratio may correct soonish, with this year possibly helping it along its way. My main concern is whether to go with a big producer like CXC or speculate with MMN.
If I can't decide between 2 stocks, 2 bob each way has always worked out well. Often the one I thought would move first or highest wasn't the one.
roland
23rd-February-2008, 09:01 AM
Hi Guys,
I posted this in the CXC thread, but is probably more appropriate here.
Here is an interesting article regarding the renewed interest in Silver for things such as ID cards, medical dressings etc.
The loss of demand in Silver due to the waning of the chemicals for wet photography has kept Silver in surplus etc...
The full article is from Mineweb, http://www.mineweb.co.za/mineweb/view/mineweb/en/page33?oid=47936&sn=Detail
An interesting part of the article states that a lot of miners are not really into Silver, but it is a lesser thought of by-product to other mining activities. So I suppose as metals like Gold and Platinum continue to draw increased mining attention, then we will have more Silver - purely as a by-product.
roland
23rd-February-2008, 09:15 AM
mmm, has Silver run a little too hard over the last 2 months:
If the chart represented another of my stocks (I wish) then I would be seriously considering taking profits.
Kitco go on to add further commetary, http://www.kitco.com/ind/Wiegand/feb222008.html
Does this mean silver has topped and this rally-run is over? Not necessarily as we’ve broken major resistance at $17.70 and some overnight and further out contracts touched above $18.00. If silver can fly to $18.50 resistance it would appear the top might be intact. On the other hand, it could sell back to and support at $17.70; the price of former resistance for next mild ABC correction.
Temjin
27th-February-2008, 10:33 PM
It's now at $19.29/oz as of typing and still climbing! Very volatile as well since the prices seem to fluctuate alot on my screen right now..ohhh..there's 19.32....****...19.33...hahah
GRRR, bad luck always fall into me. I was looking to add positions and was deciding between gold and silver. Even though I was more bullish in silver, the technical didn't look as good as those in gold. So went for gold instead. And there silver goes to the moon. :D
All indicators show it's well overbrought, but no sign of a top..maybe it will reach the psychological $20 before stopping. Wonder how would it affect its sister gold?
Santoro
27th-February-2008, 11:01 PM
It's now at $19.29/oz as of typing and still climbing! Very volatile as well since the prices seem to fluctuate alot on my screen right now..ohhh..there's 19.32....****...19.33...hahah
GRRR, bad luck always fall into me. I was looking to add positions and was deciding between gold and silver. Even though I was more bullish in silver, the technical didn't look as good as those in gold. So went for gold instead. And there silver goes to the moon. :D
All indicators show it's well overbrought, but no sign of a top..maybe it will reach the psychological $20 before stopping. Wonder how would it affect its sister gold?
True, silver is definitely on a run....who are the key silver players.....MMN moved up today was wondering whether this was worth a look at with holdings in Malachite Resources and Frontier Resources....any opinions out there
Uncle Festivus
2nd-March-2008, 09:30 PM
I'm out, gone para, maybe even short now?
refined silver
4th-March-2008, 12:09 AM
Well, thats $20 well and truly cracked.
Uncle Festivus, Check the recent Plat, Soybean and Minneapolis Wheat charts to see how far some of these can run, before you whack any shorts on.
michael_selway
4th-March-2008, 12:38 AM
Well, thats $20 well and truly cracked.
Uncle Festivus, Check the recent Plat, Soybean and Minneapolis Wheat charts to see how far some of these can run, before you whack any shorts on.
Hi do you know where to get good up to date history price charts of the commodities you mentioned above?
Thx
MS
refined silver
4th-March-2008, 12:47 AM
Hi do you know where to get good up to date history price charts of the commodities you mentioned above?
Thx
MS
I'm not trading futures - don't have time. INO have reasonable ones, I think a few threads recently have asked for charts on related commods and a few answers have been given.
Uncle Festivus, Check the recent Plat, Soybean and Minneapolis Wheat charts to see how far some of these can run, before you whack any shorts on.
Yes, maybe a bit premature for a short, getting close though, just watching now.
refined silver
4th-March-2008, 12:05 PM
Yes, maybe a bit premature for a short, getting close though, just watching now.
Read the post on the COT commercial failure I posted. Could be an interesting event just starting to happen in silver. It was up another 50c yesterday.
Enoch
5th-March-2008, 01:06 AM
Author of Rich Dad Poor Dad has big predictions on silver.
Yes, maybe a bit premature for a short, getting close though, just watching now.
Hope you went short Festivus!
Uncle Festivus
5th-March-2008, 09:03 PM
Hope you went short Festivus!
Yes, it was just getting too extreme for me, a healthy consolidation required maybe. So far, not much in it, only 100c range or so, support around 1950 holding so far......
refined silver
6th-March-2008, 12:41 PM
Yes, it was just getting too extreme for me, a healthy consolidation required maybe. So far, not much in it, only 100c range or so, support around 1950 holding so far......
If you did, hope you got in and out quick!!!
Like I said, could be something interesting happening in silver which bamboozle all who rely on TA without FA understanding. (FA means fundamental analysis!)
MRC & Co
6th-March-2008, 02:11 PM
If you did, hope you got in and out quick!!!
I reckon!
Looks like the commodity bull is still going to kick along despite this global slowdown!
Uncle Festivus
7th-March-2008, 09:00 PM
Listen up kiddies! Doing the rounds of the local (Sydney) bullion dealers today, getting some goss etc, apparently Perth Mint can't source enough silver to satisfy demand, with a wait of a few weeks at present. Not sure if it's widespread or just limited to Perth Mint bullion bars or coins, but it sounds like a real shortage happening.
Anyone else having trouble buying/sourcing silver?
explod
7th-March-2008, 09:24 PM
Listen up kiddies! Doing the rounds of the local (Sydney) bullion dealers today, getting some goss etc, apparently Perth Mint can't source enough silver to satisfy demand, with a wait of a few weeks at present. Not sure if it's widespread or just limited to Perth Mint bullion bars or coins, but it sounds like a real shortage happening.
Anyone else having trouble buying/sourcing silver?
Well the rise in silver of 90% since last August speaks for itself. I am very pleased to have my blocks salted away.
Could not believe it when my local bullion dealer, last week (you would think they would remain aloof to customers) believes the recent correlation with the historical Dow chart could be close to the mark for gold of between $10,000 and 50,000per oz. If silver goes back to 15 to 1 parity I'll be up there to those Blue Mountains of yours for a drink Uncle. In fact we'll meet at Star City and I'll show you my little charting system for roulette.
Boyou
7th-March-2008, 11:01 PM
Some alarming statistics on PM shortages projected for the near future.
In the article the author writes about re-cycling Platinum from roadside dust,which has been lost from catalytric converters
Quite a few other PMs mentioned.Anyone heard of Hafnium? Apparently it's use in Computer chips might see it run out by 2017.
spoke to dealer in Brisbane 2 weeks ago reckoned he was very busy and that a lot of sales coming in since $19 .... I wonder do the dealers hoard at times?
stock was available in all sizes up to 15kg door stop.
I am going to Sydney next week to pick up some that has been in an allocated account, was going to drop in rather than phone ahead, out of curiosity.
Keep the faith
Neil
metric
25th-March-2008, 01:21 PM
i rang ainslie bullion in brisbane today, and was told there is no silver till may, hopefully.
silver is a rare commodity. it is a precious metal, and an industrial one. there is less silver in the world than gold. a breakout in the price of silver has always depended on a physical shortage of the metal. today, that is becomming a reality. +61 7 3221 0500 is the ph of ailnslie bullion. ask them for some silver, any silver, any quantity. you cant get it. till may, if they are lucky. (they wont even quote you a price!!!!!) DYOR....
below is an article by ted butler, which he posted on silver-investor today.
TED BUTLER
March 24, 2008
Almost all of my articles over the past several months have cautioned about the possibility of a sharp sell-off, due to the historically large concentrated net short position of the largest traders in COMEX silver and gold futures. I wasn’t sure we would get a sharp sell-off or when it might come, but if we did get one, I was certain as to its cause. The 48-hour, $4 silver sell-off and $100 gold sell-off occurred for one reason and one reason only - the big shorts yanked the rug out from under the tech fund longs. Again.
Just for the benefit of newer readers (as longtime readers already know this), the tech funds are large pools of investment money that buy and sell futures contracts on every commodity based solely upon price, or technical, signals. They buy on the way up and sell on the way down, as moving averages are penetrated in either direction. They have no interest in the commodity itself, nor its value or supply/demand fundamentals, just the price action. In other words, the tech funds buy and sell many tens of millions of ounces of silver, for example, with no concern about the metal itself. All the tech funds care about is price movement and trying to capture as much of a price trend as they can. (I am not offering a value judgment of their behavior, just an explanation).
The dealers, or large commercial traders (mostly big banks), also know how the tech funds operate and always take the opposite side of whatever the tech funds buy or sell as counterparties. In my opinion, the dealers rig the market by colluding with one another against the tech funds. They do this by withholding their collective bids and offers at opportune times, namely, when they know the tech funds are about to react to a major moving average price signal. This is precisely what occurred in the 48-hour price massacre in gold and silver.
This collusion among the dealers against the tech funds is as illegal as the day is long. It has the effect of setting the price of silver (and other commodities) without regard to real world fundamentals. This is why I have petitioned the CFTC and the exchange regulators for almost 25 years. But I’ll save that story for another day. Today there are more pressing issues.
The sharp sell-off has resulted, in my opinion, in the cleansing out, or removal, of most, if not all, of the technical fund leveraged long positions in silver and gold. I think the amounts come to 20,000 contracts (100 million ounces in silver), and 75,000 contracts in gold COMEX futures (7.5 million ounces). This is my analysis, but we will have to wait until this week’s COT Report is issued to verify the actual figures.
The important thing is that, if the tech funds have, in fact, been largely liquidated by the dealers, then the reason for a potential sharp sell-off has also been eliminated. If one were cautious about being fully-invested in silver because of the possibility of a sharp tech fund sell-off, there is little reason to maintain such caution. Certainly, if anyone held off buying silver because of anything I had written about a potential sell-off, he or she should hold off no longer. Lower prices from here are not to be feared, as they will only strengthen the bullish case.
In truth, it was somewhat easier to analyze the COTs years ago, as the buying point set-ups took weeks, if not months, to develop. This permitted an analyst the luxury of time in deciphering the state of the market. But 24-hour electronic trading on the COMEX has changed all that. Since there has there been no change in the COMEX’s dominance on the day to day pricing of silver and gold, the round the clock trading capability has drastically shortened the time necessary for the dealers to ambush the tech funds. Never have they done it in as short a time span as what they just completed.
But it is not just the suspected clean-out of the tech funds that suggests to me that caution about buying silver should now be tossed to wind. There are other issues that are hard to ignore. I get the strong sense that everything may be falling into place for the real upside explosion in silver. In fact, I think the clean-out of the tech funds, which was compressed into such a short time frame, is directly related to those other issues. It’s why the sell-off took place.
One of my long-term tenets was that there would be an inevitable shortage of silver at some point. I know that sounded preposterous to many at the time I made such statements. Further, since the big dealer shorts were very much involved in the day to day world distribution and supply business, they would necessarily have some advance inkling of when the silver shortage would commence. I then asked myself what I would do, if I were them, when I got the signal that the shortage had arrived?
The only plausible answer was that, in that event, they would position themselves in the most effective and efficient way as possible for the certain coming price rise. That would mean one thing - orchestrating a large price decline on the COMEX. That would generate as much tech fund selling as possible, and enable the dealers to buy back as many contracts as they could and covers as much of their short position as possible. I think that is what has just occurred.
As I have written recently, there are unusual patterns that strongly suggest that the silver shortage may be at hand. The delays of silver deliveries into the big silver ETF, SLV and the inability of the US Mint to keep up the sudden and persistent demand for Silver Eagles are two important and visible clues. Currently, there are many reports of widespread tightness in many wholesale and retail silver outfits.
The investment rush for many forms of retail silver and the subsequent depletion of local dealer inventory comes as a result of the initial unprecedented demand for Silver Eagles. The unexpected demand for Silver Eagles, starting in November. It kicked off a rush to buy other retail forms of investment silver, such as rounds, small bars and bags of U.S. silver coins.
Since the Mint could not supply sufficient quantities of Silver Eagles to the investing public, many eager buyers took what forms of silver were available, rather than wait for new Eagles to be produced and delivered later. There should be no doubt that my good friend and mentor, Izzy, kicked off the whole shebang with his article extolling people to buy Silver Eagles. (A new article by him appears at the end of this piece).
What does a shortage in silver mean? In a word, everything. If the initial clues of a silver shortage get transformed to the industrial silver users and large investors, in terms of increased physical demand for 1000-ounce bars, the industry standard, then say good-bye (and good-riddance) to the silver manipulation. The big dealers can sell unlimited quantities of manipulative paper silver contracts created from thin air, but they can’t sell real 1000 oz bars unless they have them. If they don’t have the real goods and there is a surge in demand for real bars, the jig is up. That’s why I encourage you to insist on securing the serial numbers of every 1000 oz bar held in storage for you
The fact that there is unprecedented demand for silver at precisely the same time as a sharp and sudden sell-off in the price, should confirm to even the most obstinate skeptic the existence of a silver manipulation. So clear is this evidence of manipulation, that there is no longer any credible public denial of it. Now only the CFTC and the NYMEX contest its existence, as they must at all costs.
Finally, an often repeated message for gold-only investors. If you own no (or little) silver, and have insufficient capital with which to invest in silver currently, please switch some gold into silver. You must clearly see the evidence of a growing silver shortage. The clues and reports of shortage are, most emphatically, silver specific. There is no such shortage in gold, nor will there ever be, in my opinion. That’s because gold is not industrially consumed to the extent of silver. That does not mean gold can’t soar in price. In fact, I hope it does, as it will underscore the value of silver. But your common sense should tell you that a precious metal in shortage must climb more sharply in relative value, compared to a precious metal not in a shortage, especially when the shortage-prone metal is so undervalued to begin with.
No one reading these words has any hands-on experience in dealing with a potential shortage of silver. That’s because the world has never experienced a shortage of silver. There is nothing in the specific history of silver to guide us to expected price behavior in a shortage. The closest examples we can draw upon involves the price action of essential commodities that are rationed by natural disasters, like ice or gasoline when a hurricane knocks out power for a week or two. With such a potential silver shortage possibly at hand, coupled with the recent intentional sell-off on the COMEX, it is time to be all in.
to continue, click on link
http://www.investmentrarities.com/weeklycommentary03-24-08.html
Trembling Hand
25th-March-2008, 02:08 PM
Just another bunch of idiots who deride speculators anytime something falls then go about ramping the same so their speculation pays off. :cool:
metric
25th-March-2008, 02:30 PM
Just another bunch of idiots who deride speculators anytime something falls then go about ramping the same so their speculation pays off. :cool:
not sure what you mean TH?
Trembling Hand
25th-March-2008, 02:41 PM
Any fall is manipulation by take your pick... hedge funds/PPT/Local dealers/Hot Money/Colluding funds and on and on.
But a rise is only ever because of fundamentals and the dumb finally noticing the true value.
metric
25th-March-2008, 02:44 PM
Any fall is manipulation by take your pick... hedge funds/PPT/Local dealers/Hot Money/Colluding funds and on and on.
But a rise is only ever because of fundamentals and the dumb finally noticing the true value.
so you dont believe silver is being manipulated?
Purple XS2
25th-March-2008, 03:01 PM
If I can be forgiven for posting a slightly off-topic query:
The ASX offers stocks which more or less mirror the price of gold (eg 'GOLD') as an alternative to the posse of miners (explorers and producers).
Is there any parallel in silver? I presume there's no bullion stock, in which case what are the best stocks to shadow the running price of silver in world markets? :confused:
I'd prefer to avoid exotic 'financial products'; futures, CFDs and all that. :bad:
Tx.
P
metric
25th-March-2008, 03:04 PM
Any fall is manipulation by take your pick... hedge funds/PPT/Local dealers/Hot Money/Colluding funds and on and on.
But a rise is only ever because of fundamentals and the dumb finally noticing the true value.
sorry i misunderstood you.
you just dont care that silver is manipulated..
Trembling Hand
25th-March-2008, 03:06 PM
If I can be forgiven for posting a slightly off-topic query:
The ASX offers stocks which more or less mirror the price of gold (eg 'GOLD') as an alternative to the posse of miners (explorers and producers).
Is there any parallel in silver? I presume there's no bullion stock, in which case what are the best stocks to shadow the running price of silver in world markets? :confused:
CXC
thread here
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=263993
Trembling Hand
25th-March-2008, 03:11 PM
sorry i misunderstood you.
you just dont care that silver is manipulated..
The game is to be on the stronger side whatever your time frame is. But complaining when something falls and blaming manipulation is hypocritical.
How much of the rise are you going to blame on the manipulation and give your money back to the market because it was "manipulation"????
WOW thats freaky. I'm in another thread.........Whoooo
refined silver
25th-March-2008, 09:20 PM
very unusual massive after hours trades last night on 3 of the biggest silver co's. Hecla, Couer, and Silver Standard. After riding them down through the day, someone managing to cover on large volume.
explod
25th-March-2008, 09:37 PM
CXC
thread here
http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=263993
My fav is MMN, Macmin Silver, situated west of Brisbane and recently began producing. Worth checking out. I do not hold at present but watching
Trembling Hand
25th-March-2008, 09:40 PM
very unusual massive after hours trades last night on 3 of the biggest silver co's. Hecla, Couer, and Silver Standard. After riding them down through the day, someone managing to cover on large volume.
How do you figure that they were a short cover? :rolleyes:
refined silver
25th-March-2008, 10:17 PM
How do you figure that they were a short cover? :rolleyes:
If you check HUI short positions, these 3 stocks have nearly largest short positions of the index, so its highly likely, given the recent sell off.
drillinto
26th-March-2008, 03:24 AM
In search of more silver
http://sitekreator.com/Optimist/physical.html
By Jim Otis, 24 March 2008
explod
21st-May-2008, 03:08 PM
Time to brush the dust off with silver up over 3% last night.
Interesting on Monday US time David Morgan of Kitco said the Funds would push silver down on Tuesday and warned you can't go against that. Looks like the interest was greater than the funds.
Interesting the next few days as strong moves by silver usually indicates US$ to drop and of course gold usually follows. Maybe the Aus$ will hit parity?
oldblue
23rd-May-2008, 10:39 AM
Good move in the price of silver last night. Closing New York at USD18.
:)
flixington
8th-June-2008, 06:46 PM
My fav is MMN, Macmin Silver, situated west of Brisbane and recently began producing. Worth checking out. I do not hold at present but watching
You still watching? I'm a watcher too, have been watching it go down for a while. A the time of writing its 10c...
I just don't understand the price of silver and the SP of this stock. Why the tank? I'm thinking its just the jitters, is there something I've overlooked? Texas mine looks quite profitable considering the price of silver....
I like the leverage on this mine ....*greed*
PS: Thinking about buying a small position. Just to see where it goes.
explod
8th-June-2008, 07:14 PM
You still watching?
I just don't understand the price of silver and the SP of this stock. Why the tank? I'm thinking its just the jitters, is there something I've overlooked? Texas mine looks quite profitable considering the price of silver....
I like the leverage on this mine ....*greed*
PS: Thinking about buying a small position. Just to see where it goes.
It has support at this level from mid 2005. Many investors in silver are long time players and are aware of industry price management. Check out Jason Hommel's webpage for a picture. He is a bit radical though.
For myself I would wait for an increase in price and volume before making a move. On the moves in silver last week that may not be too long. This is a small but good working mine in my view.
refined silver
8th-June-2008, 07:31 PM
You still watching? I'm a watcher too, have been watching it go down for a while. A the time of writing its 10c...
I just don't understand the price of silver and the SP of this stock. Why the tank? I'm thinking its just the jitters, is there something I've overlooked? Texas mine looks quite profitable considering the price of silver....
I like the leverage on this mine ....*greed*
PS: Thinking about buying a small position. Just to see where it goes.
They started production a few months ago, but have had many problems and are still not close to projected production levels. Hence the huge price decline.
Their last update addressed showed their plans to sort out these problems, but they not there yet.
doogie_goes_off
15th-July-2008, 04:52 PM
Silver is cruising and most of the silver stocks are flaccid. I don't understand, is it that MMN and others just aren't promoting themselves properly?
refined silver
15th-July-2008, 05:55 PM
Silver is cruising and most of the silver stocks are flaccid. I don't understand, is it that MMN and others just aren't promoting themselves properly?
Its not just silver. Gold stocks and oil stocks also, especially juniors are at their most undervalued level compared to their underlying commodity since 2000. The reasons are:
1. Credibility problems - many juniors including MMN haven't been able to match claims made about development and production timelines.
2. Financial crisis -stifling funding for projects
3. Aversion to risk - good juniors with good projects are currently mistakenly labelled high risk
4. A very large short position against PM juniors at least held by funds.
The result is that juniors are most undervalued in 8 years.
It seems investment silver is incredibly tight now and has been getting tighter for a few months.
Kitco and Perth Mint are out, AGR Mathey just closed silver operations, while having a large amt of silver on loan from Perth Mint. Hommel asks if its a $500m silver default? (I certainly don't agree with all Hommel writes but most of his info here is fairly well documented and just joining the dots.)
http://silverstockreport.com/2008/nadler.html
The US Treasury has also suspended the minting of silver eagle coins, and so on. Investment silver is only around 10% of the total silver market, but if this shortage rolls over into other areas it must finally start to affect price.
refined silver
8th-September-2008, 07:46 PM
Another factor I haven't seen written about, yet is bullish for silver prices, is that crashing base metal prices will curtail the supply of silver since 70% of world silver supply is produced as by-products of other metals, especially zinc.
Four Australian miners have closed zinc mines in the last three months! INL being the latest.
Another factor I haven't seen written about, yet is bullish for silver prices, is that crashing base metal prices will curtail the supply of silver since 70% of world silver supply is produced as by-products of other metals, especially zinc.
Four Australian miners have closed zinc mines in the last three months! INL being the latest.
Falling zinc price claims another mine
8-September-08 by AAP
Sydney-based Intec Ltd's managing director and chief executive officer Philip Wood says the return on metals is at an all-time low in Australia.
Zinc and lead prices have collapsed as parts of the world enter recession and China boosts its own zinc production, he said.
Mr Wood said today's closure of the Hellyer Zinc Mine in Tasmania's north-west is further evidence of a patchy resources boom.
"If you are into bulk commodities like iron ore or coking coal, or the energy or gas sectors, then things are very buoyant," Mr Wood told AAP.
"But if you are in the metals sector then things are far less consistently buoyant, particularly metals like nickel and zinc. They have been very weak.
"The Australian dollar prices for these metals, relative to the mine site operating costs, are lowest in the history of mining in Australia.
"Intec's is the latest in a series of such announcements by Australian zinc miners.
"Sharply falling metals prices combined with significantly increased mine site costs have rendered their zinc production projects uneconomic.
"We have no choice but to suspend operations in order to preserve cash flow."
Mr Wood said the Lennard Shelf mine in Western Australia, the Endeavour and Perilya mines in NSW and the Australian ASX-listed AIM Resources's African operation had all been similarly affected.
"All of these closures have been announced within the last three months in response to the rapid weakening of the zinc price," he said.
Intec was about a quarter of the way through extracting zinc/lead concentrate from the tailings at its Hellyer mine.
Mr Wood said about 50 mine workers and sub-contractors would be out of work as the mine was put on a care and maintenance footing.
Reealjrd
18th-October-2008, 04:47 PM
It seems investment silver is incredibly tight now and has been getting tighter for a few months.
Kitco and Perth Mint are out, AGR Mathey just closed silver operations, while having a large amt of silver on loan from Perth Mint. Hommel asks if its a $500m silver default? (I certainly don't agree with all Hommel writes but most of his info here is fairly well documented and just joining the dots.)
http://silverstockreport.com/2008/nadler.html
The US Treasury has also suspended the minting of silver eagle coins, and so on. Investment silver is only around 10% of the total silver market, but if this shortage rolls over into other areas it must finally start to affect price.
Yes friend for the time silver is very tight. If willing to trade in it have proper analysis about it.
normanstyles
4th-November-2008, 07:55 PM
even though MMN shares have drop drastically (along with everything else) you doubt little movement in the near future?
normanstyles
4th-November-2008, 07:56 PM
and if they are stopping the minting of silver and the same quantities are not being produced due to the closure of zinc mines etc. then wouldnt that drive the prices up? supply/demand? im new to this so.....
oldblue
25th-November-2008, 12:28 PM
Found a reference to this article elsewhere. Message seems to be that the PoS is driven by and amplifies the PoG. Sounds reasonable to me.
http://www.compareshares.com.au/zeal64.php
Worth a read by silver buffs IMO.
Temjin
28th-November-2008, 09:22 AM
Wow, just look at the buyback spread right now for silver bars!
http://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/Pricesheet.pdf
It's positive over base value by almost 6%. Demand must be unprecendanted.
Gold is obviously still underloved with available stock and low spread. :D
moXJO
28th-November-2008, 09:41 AM
Wow, just look at the buyback spread right now for silver bars!
http://www.ainsliebullion.com.au/Pricesheet.pdf
It's positive over base value by almost 6%. Demand must be unprecendanted.
Gold is obviously still underloved with available stock and low spread. :D
One kilo silver bars were selling on eBay for about $640. Ainslie were some of the worst shonks I ever dealt with they are probably ripping people off that are buying from them in this current environment.
Temjin
28th-November-2008, 10:54 AM
One kilo silver bars were selling on eBay for about $640. Ainslie were some of the worst shonks I ever dealt with they are probably ripping people off that are buying from them in this current environment.
Actually, I just gave them a ring and they are asking $615 for 1kg silver for immediate delivery and soon will only take delayed deliverys.
goldbullionaustralia is worse, asking $660 for immediate and $570 for 15 weeks delay.
ausbullion, none at all until Feb 2008. (15 weeks approximate too)
But yeah, ebay prices are more accurate at this point of time.
It's crazy at current base value, over 20% spread! Might as well buy physical backed ETCs and then take deliveries later when spread is less...if that would happen. Too much emotion right now in terms of grabbing every single physical bars out there...
grace
29th-November-2008, 04:39 PM
Any ideas how much a 0.999 silver troy ounce medallion should be worth in excellent condition?
moXJO
1st-December-2008, 11:13 AM
Any ideas how much a 0.999 silver troy ounce medallion should be worth in excellent condition?
To buy 1 oz Kookaburra prob $30 - $35
If you want to sell it check up some eBay prices for what it is roughly going for, as sometimes you can squeeze a few more dollars out of em.
thooh
2nd-December-2008, 02:34 PM
I would like to buy some silver bar or block. I call Ansilee and they told me they have 1kg and 13kg silver bars and blocks. I would like to find out why 1kg bar don't have a series number on the bar but the 13kg bar have the series number. Besides, they told me the mint stamp for the 13kg block is "BHAS" mint stamp with the 999 and the series number on it. Can someone tell me "BHAS" is what company ot mint? I am a new invester last and I only have a perth mint silver and gold bars. IS the "BHAS":confused::confused: a oversea mint or company?
Thank you
arco
2nd-December-2008, 04:56 PM
BHAS = Broken Hill Associated Smelters
electronicmaster
10th-January-2009, 09:59 PM
Well, I'm very bullish on Silver for this year.
Once we see the US treasury bonds blow up (some time in March April this year) and yet another US housing market bubble to burst this year (not sub prime loans this time), and a whole heap of US Bank defaults due to over $90 trillion "US Bank Derivative Exposure" (http://bigpicture.typepad.com/comments/2008/08/us-bank-derivat.html) (old news).
And now a trillion or more stimulus package for the USA later in the month that is going to hurt the US dollar AND not to mention that the FED interest rate is down to 0 - 0.25%. And of course over 8 Trillion dollars to bail out dead company's. AND, commodities to be going up in price earlier than most non-commodities stocks.
Yea, that is a very good reason to be Bullish on Silver.
It is all fundamentals really in the end.
However. It has been proven that the central banks have been shorting Silver and Gold and continue to do so. Most of that info can be found on GoldSilver's Michael Maloney interview Videos (http://goldsilver.com/videos/?ss=e552b0b74f3069f110012c189a9eff7c)
Buy up the Bullion while its cheap. Then go for the Gold mine shares (that are still operational)
Also, I'm expecting the central banks to short Silver and Gold to a new low possibly around the time the bond markets goes down around march (may or may not happen, well seee). That's if the COMEX has not already defaulted in February 09.
Remember, the banks use ETF and other contracts to short Silver and Gold. Stay away from the Silver paper, and trade Silver Futures to help profit from last years losses (if any)
electronicmaster
10th-January-2009, 10:42 PM
It amazes me how the Gold and Silver price was effected by the US Dollar (and that includes all other world currency) when it was finally taken off the Gold standard.
This Chart (http://goldinfo.net/silver600.html) shows how the price of Gold and Silver was effected by this move in 1971, due to the deflation of the Dollar. And of course the volatility of the markets got worse over time as well, but that's why we can make a faster return. And also the reason why more and more people become Millionaires or Billionaires over the years.
lsj84
21st-May-2009, 12:57 AM
After listening to Dr Marc Faber and Jim Rogers I'm quite scared by what might be coming.
I'd like to buy some plaine tradable physical silver to protect myself.
But I'm aware that 1oz of 09 koala silver coin by perthmint is sold for 38 AUD, about 20 dollars higher than the Kitco quote. I understand physical metals are priced higher than paper metals. but is it really by this big margin?
Does this mean that at the moment I can only purhcase silver at such high price in Aussie term?
who are your preferred dealers where you guys purhcase precious metals?
explod
21st-May-2009, 06:49 AM
After listening to Dr Marc Faber and Jim Rogers I'm quite scared by what might be coming.
I'd like to buy some plaine tradable physical silver to protect myself.
But I'm aware that 1oz of 09 koala silver coin by perthmint is sold for 38 AUD, about 20 dollars higher than the Kitco quote. I understand physical metals are priced higher than paper metals. but is it really by this big margin?
Does this mean that at the moment I can only purhcase silver at such high price in Aussie term?
who are your preferred dealers where you guys purhcase precious metals?
For 12 months now I have been buying Australian 1966 round 50cent pieces. Most dealers have them or you can (and I have) buy on ebay. They are 80% silver or general rule three coins to an ounce of silver. You can still pick them up for about $6 each which is good value in my view.
Boyou
3rd-June-2009, 03:21 PM
With all the focus on Gold movement ,it might be timely to acknowledge silvers up trend too.Currently sitting at around $16.00
Explod, wondering if you could give an opinion on the trend .It seems to be more or less in lock step with gold..which ,I believe is the norm.
And where are you, Refined Silver? ..some words?
Cheers Ya'll
explod
3rd-June-2009, 04:17 PM
With all the focus on Gold movement ,it might be timely to acknowledge silvers up trend too.Currently sitting at around $16.00
Explod, wondering if you could give an opinion on the trend .It seems to be more or less in lock step with gold..which ,I believe is the norm.
And where are you, Refined Silver? ..some words?
Cheers Ya'll
Funny you should ask, was just a few minutes ago looking at the silver price holding firm at the close. As usual gold being pushed down but silver holding up. Usually a bullish sign for both.
Although not spoken of much the ratio silver/gold is way out of whack and I expect the best returns will come from my physical silver holding in the longer term. Some have said that the ratio could go to 5/1 with the poor mans gold, hard to get your head around a return like that if gold was to go up another 300% as some suggest.
The fundamentals and action on the gold threads are relevant to silver in my view.
doogie_goes_off
3rd-June-2009, 07:56 PM
Will be interesting to see if Macmin silver can come out of administration - was the best silver only project on the market.
explod
3rd-June-2009, 08:08 PM
Will be interesting to see if Macmin silver can come out of administration - was the best silver only project on the market.
Now that is amazing, only a few weeks ago talking to a mate we said we should get a few together and buy the entire project. A good silver price rise would make it very attractive indeed.
Cumorn, lets get a group to task on it. Would be welcomed by the locals, Texas I think the place is called has died since the mine closed and I know an uncle living on the gold coast who would throw a heap at something like that.
Boyou
3rd-June-2009, 09:13 PM
Thanks for the response ,Explod. Any idea when silver and gold were at that 5/1 ratio?...must have been awhile back.:rolleyes:
Just doing the sums ..if that was the case today ..gold would be only $80.00..or ,conversley silver at around $200.00 ...know which I prefer!
"Cumorn, lets get a group to task on it. Would be welcomed by the locals, Texas I think the place is called has died since the mine closed and I know an uncle living on the gold coast who would throw a heap at something like that."
And your last post is nice and cheerfull.I held a few MMN ..hope they can rise from the ashes.. and your uncle is interested. :)
Cheers Ya'll
refined silver
7th-June-2009, 03:50 PM
With all the focus on Gold movement ,it might be timely to acknowledge silvers up trend too.Currently sitting at around $16.00
Explod, wondering if you could give an opinion on the trend .It seems to be more or less in lock step with gold..which ,I believe is the norm.
And where are you, Refined Silver? ..some words?
Cheers Ya'll
Been pretty busy lately. Hopefully have a bit more time now for a little while.
Thoughts? Silver has risen much more than gold this year, but also fell more last year.
Silver is more leveraged than gold (on both up and downside).
The ratio of gold:silver in earth's crust is approx 1:17 and historically gold has been 15-17 times the silver price. This ratio is out of whack currently and many other factors such as silver being used for industrial purposes as well, meaning that there is more gold stock in the world than silver, means the ratio may come even lower than the historical average.
Finally, I think we are very close to breakouts in Au and Ag to new highs.
canaussieuck
7th-June-2009, 04:01 PM
Heres SLV, the silver iShares ETF, already broke out, now a test or pullback....might be a good place jump on again...I will be watching this closely.
Cheers,
CanOz
weatherbill
8th-June-2009, 09:36 AM
If they can keep the global economy up, silver will catch up to gold for industrial demand increases and that ratio will close a little more.
Boyou
9th-June-2009, 05:47 PM
Thanks for the input R S and others
Looks like the breakout will be a prolonged excersize ,after last nights falls.
Patience ,Patience
Cheers Ya'll
Boyou
3rd-August-2009, 07:28 PM
Time to boot this thread in the bottom again :D
Just checked KitcoWorld Market..Have only been watching silver for a couple of years..so is this unusual?..all other PMs down and Silver up 2%...hope my copy/paste comes out legibly........
Just checked KitcoWorld Market..Have only been watching silver for a couple of years..so is this unusual?..all other PMs down and Silver up 2%...hope my copy/paste comes out legibly........
Start of a trend??
I've been seeing lots of reports that Silver has been heavily shorted buy the Big Banks around the world.
They say that you can short more Silver than you can Buy long Silver contracts.
Perhaps the Banks have stoped shorting Silver for a short while? Or are they now buying as much Silver as they can. Time will tell.
Rumours about China demanding the USA to pay T-Bill debt in Yuan instead of payment in USD is lurking about now.
