WBC - Westpac Banking Corporation

[PLJ50L]

Hi All,

Any ideas on the freefall that WBC is taking?

cheers

[Caliente]

God I hate WBC. Held this biatch for 6 months and sold at a price that just covered my brokerage.

For me WBC stands for Wasted Bloody Capital.

[GreatPig]

Westpac has basically been going sideways all year, but is approaching its longer-term trend line. At this rate it should be there in another month or two.

Cheers,
GP

[TjamesX]

I remember seeing the CEO for Westpac being interviewed a couple of months ago. They have consciously decided not to pursue more risking lending and expansionary policies as aggressively as the others during this part of the cycle. This is directly related to some of the hurt the banks felt in the last housing boom around 89-90, theoretically this means they are better positioned for any :eek: recession to come, but they have also not enjoyed the credit boom party as much.

Either way - I'm not holding any banks in the near future

[dutchie]

WBC have announced a buy back.

They have also said that today is the last day to be entitled to the Tax advantage ($4.00 capital - rest dividend). Therefore the SP has risen by about a $1 today??

Could one assume that tomorrow, after the above deadline, that the price might fall back to its price relative to yestedays price ???

[happytrader]

Hi there

Yesterday there was a trading holt because the profit results had 'accidentally' been leaked. (Channel 9) They were due for release today.
If you check out ANZ, SGB, MBL, NAB, CBA after profit announcements 9 times out of 10 they go down because the 'good' report' has already been factored in prior to the announcement. You need to check out monthly and weekly charts to understand and see this. 'They' can then buy the share back cheaper up to exdividend time. Its a double dip thing they do. In the case of WBC they've done a bit of a sneaky. The dividend players are buying up on the 'good' report and the dividend. Do you really think they are going to 'give' you all this for free? Would not surprise me if they take the equivalent of the dividend payout back tommorrow.

Cheers
Happytrader

[happytrader]

WBC have announced a buy back.

They have also said that today is the last day to be entitled to the Tax advantage ($4.00 capital - rest dividend). Therefore the SP has risen by about a $1 today??

Could one assume that tomorrow, after the above deadline, that the price might fall back to its price relative to yestedays price ???

You're right on the money Dutchie!

Cheers
Happytrader

[Stan 101]

WBC have announced a buy back.

They have also said that today is the last day to be entitled to the Tax advantage ($4.00 capital - rest dividend). Therefore the SP has risen by about a $1 today??

Could one assume that tomorrow, after the above deadline, that the price might fall back to its price relative to yestedays price ???


Hi I've found nothing on this, can you expand on the info please.

Cheers,

[dutchie]

Stan 101, have a look at the ASX site and get the announcements made by WBC today and yesterday (theres quite a few as they made a few balls up as well).

Happytrader, I think there were a lot of people scrambling to own WBC by today to qualify for the tax advantages of the buy back. Would not be surprised if WBC opened lower tomorrow (despite 51c div.) by up to 80c.



Don't take this as advice as I'm only guessing!!!

[rozella]

Announcement attached

[dutchie]

Sure misread that one big time (WBC up 20c at moment).

Back to the drawing board for me in fundamental analysis.

An interesting little period with dividends, buy backs, deadlines, leaked information, wrong information etc all happening at the same time.

[happytrader]

Dutchie you WERE right on the money. They took back their 51c dividend. $21.67 down to $21.16. They are all as greedy as. . You've just got to second guess them knowing and looking for this. They started moving out just before lunch yesterday in the 3rd hr. Check out your hourly chart - see that gravestone doji? Always check your charts in all time frames. You'll see we have pretty much got a range for this stock now for the month. Check my post yesterday at 1.10pm. Don't worry you are getting closer all the time.

Cheers
Happytrader

[happytrader]

Dutchie you WERE right on the money. They took back their 51c dividend. $21.67 down to $21.16. They are all as greedy as. . You've just got to second guess them knowing and looking for this. They started moving out just before lunch yesterday in the 3rd hr. Check out your hourly chart - see that gravestone doji? Always check your charts in all time frames. You'll see we have pretty much got a range for this stock now for the month. Check my post yesterday at 1.10pm. Don't worry you are getting closer all the time.

Cheers
Happytrader

Judging from his posts especially that one in Crash of 05 thread today, our friend Chicken is a specialist in spotting market manipulation,greed and BS Good on you Chicken I know you've go their number.

Cheers
Happytrader

[dutchie]

HappyT, still powering on for dividend plays.

Looks like it might break out of channel (temporarily - till after 17th ??)

Could close that previous gap after that.

Still just guessing - been wrong before!!

Cheers

[happytrader]

Hi Dutchie

They can't beat you up too badly if you trade within the 21.16 - 21.67 range till exdividend time. I see Rozella's did'nt hold his Wbc stock till exdividend time - sold today - smart move. Just wait for the move. By the way Dutchie, have you checked out Anz today? I would not be 'surprised' if they were buying up today to push it up tomorrow. Remember, the pro's close the market thats why you don't get to see what that is till 4.05 - 4.09. It's all premeditated.

Disclaimer
I could be a raving looney or a greedy pig for all you know, however, it takes one to know one hehe!

Cheers
Happytrader

[Uncle Festivus]

Anyone have a view on WBC specifically and the banks in general? Seems to me some weakness creeping in to the big 4 lately?

[canaussieuck]

Anyone have a view on WBC specifically and the banks in general? Seems to me some weakness creeping in to the big 4 lately?

I went short on WBC just before the close yesterday.

Cheers,

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Anyone have a view on WBC specifically and the banks in general? Seems to me some weakness creeping in to the big 4 lately?

Naturally.

[rico01]

I went short on WBC just before the close yesterday.

Cheers,

I,m short by way of 40 $26 dollar puts,The dow is currently down 99 points, Ah! life is sweet:rolleyes:

[adamwu]

Anyone come give me advice about currently wbc moving?:banghead:

In just 3 days, it dropped about 80 cents. Have no idea what happened. Someone tell me it because old Greenspan said something, is that correct?

[ozambersand]

All the banks are taking a hammering, probably because of the Greenspan comments.

Westpac also just passed its "record date" post dividend (23rd May). A lot of people think they have to own the share till this date to ensure they get the dividend and there is traditionally a big sell off immediately after. (They went ex-dividend on 17th May)

Note that NAB has also gone down a lot and it still hasn't reached its ex-dividend day, so in some ways its downward share price momentum is more unusual than Westpac's as you would be expecteing it to hold firm or go up (like CSR and LNN are doing who have similar ex-dividend dates).

I just hope that WBC goes up again after I have picked the bottom and bought in for some more! :rolleyes:

But who knows when that will be..........

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I am seeing some weakness after the recent purge. If it can't get back up what is stopping it? If it is out of favour why?

I see resistance of sorts and considering a short sale. I am just waiting for confirmation.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

In response to a PM.

My signal was a significant down day which happened. I expect further down ward movement before any significant upward movement appears.

Discussion only.
Cheers

[Moneybags]

Snake,

I see where you are coming from with closing prices being lower than open for last 6 days........then a significant down day. I suspect you are right with more downward movement to follow after the Dow.

Cheers
MB

[It's Snake Pliskin]

and today tells the story of where I was hoping to get my $$$$ from, if my provider had let me go short. :banghead:

[rico01]

and today tells the story of where I was hoping to get my $$$$ from, if my provider had let me go short. :banghead:

I've never got into CFD's cos of so many unknowns,but with options yesterday you could have paid 45c/$450 per contract of 1000 shares for a july $26 put which gives you 49 days to expiry. If you get it wrong thats all you risk unlike Cfd's. I usually trade in lots of 10 which gives you leverage to $260,000 of stock in WBC. How does that compare to CFD's? :)

[It's Snake Pliskin]

I've never got into CFD's cos of so many unknowns,but with options yesterday you could have paid 45c/$450 per contract of 1000 shares for a july $26 put which gives you 49 days to expiry. If you get it wrong thats all you risk unlike Cfd's. I usually trade in lots of 10 which gives you leverage to $260,000 of stock in WBC. How does that compare to CFD's? :

Yes I may need to take the options route I think.

I am beginning to think CFD's may be like bucket shops of the twenties.

[3 veiws of a secret]

Yes I may need to tak ethe options route I think.

I am begining to think CFD's may be like bucket shops of the twenties.

Correct me if I'm wrong Snake ....but like every toy for the investor, the onus is on you to deliver a profit and the stakes are dreamy...you can loose much more ..... Perhaps I'm conservative old school, but greedy I'm not, just cautious.....

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Correct me if I'm wrong Snake ....but like every toy for the investor, the onus is on you to deliver a profit and the stakes are dreamy...you can loose much more ..... Perhaps I'm conservative old school, but greedy I'm not, just cautious.....

...and your point is?

Conservative old school is?

We all have the tools that we need - toys are for children.

[rico01]

Yes I may need to take the options route I think.

I am beginning to think CFD's may be like bucket shops of the twenties.

Well snake after looking hard at WBC yesterday I actually did buy some put options, but june $26's at 41.5c, risky I know, but this morning it's lookin good for a bit of a correction, so i might owe u a beer or two, also I picked up those 100,000 YML u dropped at 26c so thanks 4 those too.
Cheers:bier: :)

[GreatPig]

Westpac showing some bullish RSI divergence as it bounces near the trend line and comes out of oversold territory.

The current uptrend has been pretty solid and steady since the start of my data back in 1997, with the only hiccup being in late 2002. So short of a major change in trend, I think now is looking as good a time as any. I picked some up for my investment portfolio last month.

Cheers,
GP

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Westpac showing some bullish RSI divergence as it bounces near the trend line and comes out of oversold territory.

The current uptrend has been pretty solid and steady since the start of my data back in 1997, with the only hiccup being in late 2002. So short of a major change in trend, I think now is looking as good a time as any. I picked some up for my investment portfolio last month.

Cheers,
GP

Hi GP,

I picked up some today just a small lot to let run for a while. I like the fact it has taken some time to start coming back up. Brokers are positive on it and the PE is ok.

[nomore4s]

Was looking over the charts of the banks and noticed that Westpac has held up quite well lately, especially compared to the other major banks.

Anyone got any ideas on why?

[ozambersand]

Brokers have been tipping it as the best bank of the Big Four. That might explain it, but I doubt that is enough.

It has also consistently had more "buys" than "sells" in their market depth. I find that strange particularly as in the last fews days everyone else has had almost 4:1 sells to buys.

Something is going on.

[voigtstr]

I'm considering buying a $2k parcel of shares in WBC next payday (15/09)
Is it just a matter of watching intraday prices and picking a dip?

[Julia]

I'm considering buying a $2k parcel of shares in WBC next payday (15/09)
Is it just a matter of watching intraday prices and picking a dip?

It's a pity your payday doesn't fall tomorrow, given there is likely to be a large fall here following the 250pt drop in the US on Friday night.
There will be other similar opportunities. Good luck.

[Arturius]

I've been keeping an eye on this stock for a little while, after the strong up move in late October, it looks like its retracting to a better value zone. Its been by far the biggest dog of the major banks in my opinion, which is a good thing, because reversion to mean trades with strong fundamental stocks is a solid way to trade.

Here's what I wrote about in my blog (http://pineapplewatch.com/):

Westpac (WBC (http://au.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=WBC.AX&x=232&y=16)) has been getting creamed lately. It seemed to produce only sideways movement over the August financial sector decline, but I think thats because its gains have been more modest in previous years then the other big 4. I feel very good about its outlook. Looking to buy RAMS Home Loan Group (RHG), a company which has seen most of its value sliced this year, gives it a good opportunity to buy itself a broader customer base and further sell its innovative banking products. WBC hasn’t been getting the love of the other big Australian banks have been seeing this year, and for that reason I think its due for a catch up. The RHG buy out spooked investors into an early November sell off, but its starting to make its way back. I’d like to hold this one for the next 6 months and see how it plays out. If it dips below $26, I’d probably sell, the stocks getting way to weak. Come on, just look at the graph. Doesn’t this scream to you under appreciated? And once again, like almost all of my buys, insider trading has been very strong. This one is ready to shoot towards $38+. Go long at $27.60.

Any thoughts on the RAMS acquisition? Technically it looks like a strong place to buy, fundamentally I could see the RAMS buy out go either way.

[TheRage]

Just thought I would comment on some of your points. Don't take this as an attack but I wish to clarify on some of your points of discussion.

1) In relation to the comment it's been the biggest dog of the four banks I am wondering what you are using to support that argument. From my research Nab wins that title hands down. 10yr Total shareholder returns for the big four are as follows. NAB 12.4%, CBA 18.8%, ANZ 16.9% and WBC 17.0%. Seems to me WBC stacks up quite nicely.


2) With respect to the comment Westpac hasn't been given the love of the other banks this year, well again I must disagree. Total 1 year shareholder returns WBC 18.7%, NAB 4.3%, CBA 28.9%, ANZ 1.9%. Again WBC comes out second best.

3) The comment that the RHG buyout spooked investors seems the unlikely culprit rather I suspect the fact that the market droped 7% before the election might have a little more to do with it.

4) The comment Insider trading has been very strong perhaps should be worded more carefully. I assume your refer to management purchasing the stock on market. I have not seen great evidence of this. By the way one could mistrue your wording to suggest that you were infact insider trading.

5) The comment this one is ready to shoot to $38+ is unsubstantiated. I realise you are a graph trader but perhaps some analysis on this might be useful. From a fundamental perspective if earnings growth is around 12% (historically close to this) then it is likely this will be the annual growth. From WBC's average 5 yr PE of around 13 Westpac is fairly valued at the moment. However in two years time using a conservative annual eps return of 12% and providing PE ratio is preserved at 13 the value of westpac should be around $31. Of course overvaluations always occur.

For the record I believe Westpac is probably the best bank. However all banks have a payout ratio of around 70% of earnings as dividends and why banks will never grow more rapidly due to only 30% of earnings being returned to retained earnings and therefore used to create more earnings.

I own Westpac. DYOR

[2020hindsight]

just for the record
here's WBC for the last 2 years (High Low Close) + averages
Also WBC vs XAO for last 12 months (candlestix) + ditto (percent indicates relative preformance campared to datum of XAO)

PS I plan to do this to a few stocks - please feel free to either
a) help out and divvy the job up between a few of us
b) suggest amendments to graphs
c) request some stocks you'd like me to post (maybe PM me)
d) tell me it's not necessary lol (or too wasteful of memory maybe?)

[treefrog]

westpac hasn't seen $20 since aug 05 but looks like revisiting soon.

strong 5yr trendline break and now retracing almost 50% of 5years of gains in last 4months

[Bill M]

I've noticed that Westpac has been announcing several issues of debt securities. Could somebody explain to me exactly what they are? Attached is a recent one, thanks.

[Birdster]

I've noticed that Westpac has been announcing several issues of debt securities. Could somebody explain to me exactly what they are? Attached is a recent one, thanks.

This link is a great start. (I didn't know either)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Security_(finance)

[Family_Guy]

Can someone explain WBC at the moment? I don't get the new SPS they want to start because it says in the prospectus that "on the winding up of Westpac" and thats the bit i don't get. I'm asking because in pre-open this morning, the stock is up 30% and i'm not sure if i should be holding or selling (don't need to answer that) because of this new stock code they are introducing.

Thanks
Newbie.

[roland]

Can someone explain WBC at the moment? I don't get the new SPS they want to start because it says in the prospectus that "on the winding up of Westpac" and thats the bit i don't get. I'm asking because in pre-open this morning, the stock is up 30% and i'm not sure if i should be holding or selling (don't need to answer that) because of this new stock code they are introducing.

Thanks
Newbie.

I don't have the answer to your question, but I wouldn't be concerned with the pre open figures as most of my stocks have unusually high pre open figures. They'll clear to a more realistic value just before open.

I'm holding, and will grab some more if it goes below $21

[roland]

Looking at a 2 year chart seems to indicate that Westpac is at, or close to the bottom.

Now, I am neither a chartist nor fully conversant with all the issues affecting WBC's SP, but at these levels I am thinking that it is a good buy.

When compared with ANZ's chart, it is obvious that WBC's lack of performance is not a Westpac thing, but just showing the pain of the financial sector.

I have been grabbing some of these since just before ex-div and the latest today at just above $21.00.

Even with the SP weakness the secure and high dividend returns along with the strength of being a bank .... and a strong buy rating from Aegis leads me to believe that WBC is a reasonable safe investment at these levels.

Just my opinion - would love to hear others ....

[ColB]

Like you said Roland pretty much the whole financial sector is experiencing hard times and not likely to turn around quickly in the short to medium term. I'm not a chartist either but it looks like a pretty good downhill trend to me. Might pay a reasonable dividend and maybe close to being a relatively safe buy but I couldn't help but think even a safe stock like BHP will outperform it over the next 3-5 yrs without any problem.

Disclosure: I used to own WBC shares until last week. Regards CB

[roland]

Like you said Roland pretty much the whole financial sector is experiencing hard times and not likely to turn around quickly in the short to medium term. I'm not a chartist either but it looks like a pretty good downhill trend to me. Might pay a reasonable dividend and maybe close to being a relatively safe buy but I couldn't help but think even a safe stock like BHP will outperform it over the next 3-5 yrs without any problem.

Disclosure: I used to own WBC shares until last week. Regards CB

Sounds good, my managed "resources fund" is heavily into BHP and RIO and the like, so I am covered there. Gotta' diversify a little though .....

[ColB]

Yeah you're right there Roland. I'm diversifying too. I'm diversified into Resources, Resources, Resources and some Energy.:)

[roland]

Outstanding day for WBC - up 7%. I followed this silly stock all the way down to $19.00, 400 units each $1.00 drop. Now happily selling as it rises again. Not to be too complacent, I suspect that a retrace to $19 is not out of the question - given the right catalyst.

[subaru69]

I'm diversified into Resources, Resources, Resources and some Energy.

I bought ANZ @ 28 and WBC @ 26 and due to my previous advanced investment style :o I didn't sell them as they dropped. So I bought a bucket of miners to diversify. Now they're going down and the financials are recovering. :banghead::banghead:

Eventually things will go my way. :sly:

Disclaimer: things aren't that bad, it's all part of the fun :D

[UMike]

Outstanding day for WBC - up 7%. I followed this silly stock all the way down to $19.00, 400 units each $1.00 drop. Now happily selling as it rises again. Not to be too complacent, I suspect that a retrace to $19 is not out of the question - given the right catalyst.I hope so.

I bought in twice at early $19s and looks like I sold a bit early in the 20s a few days ago.

Who knows a couple poor results elsewhere and they could get back there again. Somehow I think the worst is over for the banks.

[TheAbyss]

CBA are first cab off the rank for reporting so they will be a guide to what the other 3 do imo.

Looking at the CBA sp it would appear the expectation is for a good set of figures. If CBA report some good numbers it will rub off on the other 3 and they will rapidly rebound.

Got into WBC and ANZ on the strength of the CBA support yesterday so here's hoping. First stock in a few months i have bought outside IO and CSG other than a failed attempt at picking a bottom on BNB so any thoughts on the financials more than welcome positive or negative.

[roland]

I sold another parcel at $22.30 for a 3% gain. Getting nervous now as I feel WBC has run a little too hard. Still I am exactly where I need to be - doesn't matter whether is goes up or down now, it's either a buy or a sell depending on the next SP move. :)

[roland]

bad start for the day, NAB's announcement didn't help. I was so close to jumping the turnaround with WBC after the reassuring announcement, but I have enough tied up already, great to watch the SP recover so strongly

[McNovice]

Have been looking into getting some Westpac shares, but they took a bit hit today, especially after Lunch. Ok, I understand NAB took a hit on Friday due to their announcement and ANZ took a hit today due to the same reason NAB did. I cannot see an announcement from WBC- Does this mean the market is expecting one to come as the other 2 have?? and this is the reason for it to dive 8%? So I'm thinking hold off in case they do make an announcement as it will drop even more?

Views from Non Novicers would be appreciated

[subaru69]

Have been looking into getting some Westpac shares, but they took a bit hit today, especially after Lunch. Ok, I understand NAB took a hit on Friday due to their announcement and ANZ took a hit today due to the same reason NAB did. I cannot see an announcement from WBC- Does this mean the market is expecting one to come as the other 2 have?? and this is the reason for it to dive 8%? So I'm thinking hold off in case they do make an announcement as it will drop even more?

Views from Non Novicers would be appreciated

Very simple facts are:
1. the banking sector is cactus; check various threads such as 'imminent severe market correction','have banks turned the corner','XAO analysis' etc
2. NAB and ANZ effectively lied (thru non-disclosure) of massive write-offs, now no-one trusts ANY of the banks not to lie
3. politicians coming out and saying 'everything is ok, don't panic' = panic
4. WBC could be a great bank with no exposure to anything and still get slammed by this market sentiment (as it did today)

I know this response isn't either TA or FA in nature; but you don't have to explain light as a particle or wave to know the sky is blue.

PS- unfortunately I hold all stocks mentioned :banghead: so am not attempting to down-ramp

[lsj84]

I worked at ANZ, there was an old lady handing over me a cheque to Bell Potter, which is her broker, of 20 or 30k to buy ANZ shares through Bell Porter at price of $23. that was in February. Then I cant remember clearly on which case, maybe Allco or BNB, Bell potter was publically critisized for their short selling behaviours. This is outrageours for me, and that poor old lady is so unfortunate that she believed their lies that banks have bottomed.

Sorry guys, I just went shorted on WBC last week after banks rebounded. The reason Im doing this is becasue banks are a myth, there are so many things that can be and will be uncovered during the course of ordeal. I still remember one JP Morgan banking analyst talking how pessimistic he was about aus banking sector on abc's lateline business and a programme about credit card issuing on abc's 4 corners.

Im not sure how different the stories in the US and in AUS. But if we follow the lead on Wall street, our banks would suffer further. Jim Rogers has been saying and saying on interviews that he has been and will still be short on financial indices.

This is a systmatic risk in banking, diversifying into it would be costly.

[wayneL]

Very simple facts are:
1. the banking sector is cactus; check various threads such as 'imminent severe market correction','have banks turned the corner','XAO analysis' etc
2. NAB and ANZ effectively lied (thru non-disclosure) of massive write-offs, now no-one trusts ANY of the banks not to lie
3. politicians coming out and saying 'everything is ok, don't panic' = panic
4. WBC could be a great bank with no exposure to anything and still get slammed by this market sentiment (as it did today)

I know this response isn't either TA or FA in nature; but you don't have to explain light as a particle or wave to know the sky is blue.

PS- unfortunately I hold all stocks mentioned :banghead: so am not attempting to down-ramp
IIRC WBC was the bank that nearly went down the gurgler in the last property route. Jeez and this one is only just getting warmed up. :eek:

[dhukka]

Have been looking into getting some Westpac shares, but they took a bit hit today, especially after Lunch. Ok, I understand NAB took a hit on Friday due to their announcement and ANZ took a hit today due to the same reason NAB did. I cannot see an announcement from WBC- Does this mean the market is expecting one to come as the other 2 have?? and this is the reason for it to dive 8%? So I'm thinking hold off in case they do make an announcement as it will drop even more?

Views from Non Novicers would be appreciated

How could you not see a similar announcement from WBC over the course of the next 12 months? There is a distinct pattern here. Take a look at what happened in the US banking sector for a guide. No bank will be immune. Bank earnings have peaked and are now in reverse, the cycle has clearly turned.

[Greg71]

Hi,

Anyone else watching this double-top formation? Looks like it's ready to move.

http://www.salespagesoftware.com/images/wbcdt.gif

Stochastic divergence as well.

Greg.

[Greg71]

It's at a "turning point" I guess. While it's forming a double top, it's also an ascending triangle, plus it's above the 30 week m/a.

So, will it be 1. and ascending tri 2. a double/ triple top or 3. a sideways channel.

This week will be interesting.

:)

[white_goodman]

the overall trend is up, im in for a long position... we shall see this week..

the chart below looks like its gonna hit that double top again, if it has some momentum we may breakthrough... up in the air atm

[roland]

Thought I would spread my misery around with all my holdings. Maybe my losses will brighten up someone else.

WBC -13.13%

[niknah]

Makes me feel better, but not good, here's my losses...

-7.36% WBC
-40.62% ANZ

It's going to take several years or a decade for some of these companies to get back up.

[Big_Daz]

Quick question...if you were to invest in SGB instead of WBC as at this date, would you still pick up the $1.28 div SGB is paying or do you miss out?

Thanks guys

[deadset]

Anyone know the next ex-dividend date ?
(I'm guessing yesterday)

Would you believe I sold SGB the day before the takeover announcement.
($22-24 or something)
:banghead:

[TheAbyss]

Anyone know the next ex-dividend date ?
(I'm guessing yesterday)

Would you believe I sold SGB the day before the takeover announcement.
($22-24 or something)
:banghead:


11 November registration date @ 72c per share payable on 17th December. 100 characters is tough to achieve sometimes.

[deadset]

Thanks for that.

I think I might buy back in soon for a few of the banks, I caught a bit of the slide from before.

The finger in the pie seems to working for banks in any case, its screwed up my timing though for when I should buy back in. With a divy coming up and an election in the US coming up its all in the timing.

[fujitsu]

wbc is going exdiv tomorrow meaning most likely its sp will fall reflecting the div payment. Since wbc is merging with sgb and sgb shareholders will get 1.31 wbc shares will sgb sp fall as well?

[TheAbyss]

wbc is going exdiv tomorrow meaning most likely its sp will fall reflecting the div payment. Since wbc is merging with sgb and sgb shareholders will get 1.31 wbc shares will sgb sp fall as well?

Fuji, you frightened the bejesus out of me. I thought i had plenty of time to sell out of WBC pre ex div date until i read your post.

They go ex div in another week not tomorrow (I have pasted an excerpt from the dividend statement released to market 30 October below). In the interim some nice gains being experienced and hopeful of a bit more pre going ex div.

The dividend will be paid to all holders of Westpac ordinary shares who are registered on the share register as at the record date, 5.00 pm (Sydney time) on 11 November 2008 (5.00 pm (New York time) on 10 November 2008).

[roland]

Fuji, you frightened the bejesus out of me. I thought i had plenty of time to sell out of WBC pre ex div date until i read your post.

They go ex div in another week not tomorrow (I have pasted an excerpt from the dividend statement released to market 30 October below). In the interim some nice gains being experienced and hopeful of a bit more pre going ex div.

The dividend will be paid to all holders of Westpac ordinary shares who are registered on the share register as at the record date, 5.00 pm (Sydney time) on 11 November 2008 (5.00 pm (New York time) on 10 November 2008).

Westpac are ex-div tomorrow:

Dividend Type Cents Per Share Franked % Ex-Dividend Date Pay Date
Final 72.00 100 05 Nov, 08 17 Dec, 08

The record date is ex-div date plus 3 days, plus the weekend - so I believe today was the last date

[sails]

...The dividend will be paid to all holders of Westpac ordinary shares who are registered on the share register as at the record date, 5.00 pm (Sydney time) on 11 November 2008 (5.00 pm (New York time) on 10 November 2008).

Perhaps you have mistaken the record date with xdiv date. Below is a cut & paste from their website: http://www.westpac.com.au/internet/publish.nsf/Content/WIICFC+Financial+calendar

[TheAbyss]

Thanks guys. Looks like i have found another method to leave some cash on the table.

Nothing else to say for the 100 other than oops!

[sails]

Thanks guys. Looks like i have found another method to leave some cash on the table.

Nothing else to say for the 100 other than oops!

Seems to be part of the learning process - called the school of hard knocks. It's where the best lessons are learned :rolleyes: Anyway, will depend on how the market performs tomorrow - while a drop by at least the dividend amount is the expected norm, they don't always if there is a strong up move on xdiv day. Just as it can exceed the dividend amount on the downside on a bearish day. Hope it works out in your favour :)

[TheAbyss]

Appreciate the sentiment. Comsec tells me that ex div date is the 5th so i have today yet to close out so no problem as i see it.

[Real1ty]

Appreciate the sentiment. Comsec tells me that ex div date is the 5th so i have today yet to close out so no problem as i see it.

If you wanted to sell without receiving the dividend, you need to sell PRIOR to the ex dividend date.


Ex Dividend
The first day of trading when shares trade without the entitlement to the dividend. To be entitled to a dividend a shareholder must have purchased shares before the ex dividend date. Shares are quoted ex-dividend four business days before the Record date.




Record date
The date on which Westpac's register of Shareholders is closed in order to determine entitlement to a dividend.

I think you might be lucky as with the market improving and the DOW up 300 points, you might find it won't drop as much as you expected and who knows it may even appreciate over the next day or two.

[sails]

Appreciate the sentiment. Comsec tells me that ex div date is the 5th so i have today yet to close out so no problem as i see it.

If you own the shares, it shouldn't make a lot of difference as you should now be entitled to receive the dividend which technically puts you as being no worse off than yesterday. Just means waiting until the div is actually paid to bring your account back to this level. You may also qualify for the franking credit depending on your circumstances. So, you should still be able sell today and receive the dividend in a few weeks.

But don't take my word for it as I'm not a financial advisor - check with your broker for clarification :)

[TheAbyss]

Thanks guys. Worked out well (albeit poorly researched on the div dates),

Bought at $20.35 last week, sold for $21.50 on 70% lvr today. Obtained the dividend at 72 cents ps plus a capital profit on the SP.

Profit on trade 26.16%.

[coolacoola]

After the market closed, they released a statement stating that they have a 200m exposure to Allco. Depending on the way the dow performs tonight, the stock could face some pressure tomorrow. Then again i may be wrong if the Dow rallies 500 points.
Interesting times

http://business.smh.com.au/business/westpac-with-200m-exposure-to-allco-20081105-5icn.html

[sails]

Thanks guys. Worked out well (albeit poorly researched on the div dates),

Bought at $20.35 last week, sold for $21.50 on 70% lvr today. Obtained the dividend at 72 cents ps plus a capital profit on the SP.

Profit on trade 26.16%.

Always nice when you can learn a lesson from the market and still get some profit - congrats on a winning trade :)

[Real1ty]

Westpac was absolutely smashed today and very harshly in comparison to other banking stocks.

95% acceptance rate for the merger but i can't see how this could have had any negative effect on the SP as it was always going to go through.

I've been caught out a bit on this one and am a little concerned.

[coolacoola]

I believe several factors are at play. When Westpac merge with St George they will be giving out shares, thus more supply of shares, likely to drive the SP down. Remember 1.31 for every St George share. Also possible exposures to other companies might be a factor. Also capital raising to a lesser extent

Would be interesting to here from anyone else following whats been going on

[shccbell]

The dilution of shares can't be an issue as the underlying assets exceed what is being paid for them. The exposure surely was factored in weeks ago and reserves are in line with Westpac anyway, I assume they did due diligence. I've been caught out as well having bought a lot at 19.10 but think this is simply an over reaction like the rest of the market.

The market simply isn't trading on technical or fundamental analysis should have been out months ago but to late. My bet is we will see a major rally of banks in the next 3 months as the fear slowly subsides and people realise the banks are trading below fair market.

[kennas]

All the banks are on a pe of 9 ish at the moment, so if earning stay stable they look undervalued on a long term perspective with ave pe of 14 ish (to be corrected). They are either oversold, or the market is correct that their future earnings are going to come off about 40%.

I bought this a few weeks ago as a long term hold for the grandkids, but bailed as the bad news just got badder .... How much more to come? All factored in, or not, that is the question I'm asking myself across a lot of companies that one day will regain old highs, but how much lower can they go and how long till recovery ... :confused:

[Real1ty]

I believe several factors are at play. When Westpac merge with St George they will be giving out shares, thus more supply of shares, likely to drive the SP down. Remember 1.31 for every St George share. Also possible exposures to other companies might be a factor. Also capital raising to a lesser extent

Would be interesting to here from anyone else following whats been going on

But the dilution has been known about for months.

The merger once given the go ahead by the Govt was always going to go through easily and the market knew this, so why on the day that it is made official and gets through with a resounding vote of confidence with a 95% acceptance rate is it smashed by about 12%?

I could understand it if it limped over the line with 75-80% but at 95% and with it always going to get through it doesn't make a lot of sense to me.

Probably just an anomaly and i almost averaged down yesterday at a touch over $17.00 but decided to tread carefully as my "Something is smelly here" radar was on high alert.

Cap raising or at least rumour of one possibly?

[agro]

i got a target of $10 on WBC - is this realistic?

either WBC or ANZ - one of the two

also, they likely to keep their dividends next year

[kennas]

i got a target of $10 on WBC - is this realistic?

either WBC or ANZ - one of the two

also, they likely to keep their dividends next yearIt could go further down as with the rest of the sector, but by how much is a pure pluck withought any analysis.

You do probably need to decide which stock your talking about too, their share structure is different, so $10 for ANZ may not be as lower in MC value as $10 for WBC ... at a pluck.

I don't think the banks will maintain their dividends but by how much is another pluck. They say they are not going to cut, but I think they'll have their pants on fire shortly ...

I see $14-15 as a decent support zone for WBC, but it's been defying gravity like all the rest. 50% off highs is probably a decent phychological support level too.

But heck, the world's on fire. All the banks could go rupt too ...

[Miner]

It could go further down as with the rest of the sector, but by how much is a pure pluck withought any analysis.

You do probably need to decide which stock your talking about too, their share structure is different, so $10 for ANZ may not be as lower in MC value as $10 for WBC ... at a pluck.

xxxxx

I see $14-15 as a decent support zone for WBC, but it's been defying gravity like all the rest. 50% off highs is probably a decent phychological support level too.

B ...

Kennas

Thanks

What do you think the decent support zone for ANZ will be ?

It has less robustness than WBC and probably Westpac is the best share in today's bank fraternity with debt and hedging losses.

Cheers

[kennas]

Kennas

Thanks

What do you think the decent support zone for ANZ will be ?

It has less robustness than WBC and probably Westpac is the best share in today's bank fraternity with debt and hedging losses.

CheersI thought $16 was going to be....:eek7:

The 98-99 highs at $12 look to have held.

For now...

eeeek

[GundamZeta]

WBC going to offer SPP @ $16.. is it a good price to add more or it still value too high in this recession environment? :banghead:

[sardines]

I'd wait for the folks to dump their stock below $16. No idea how low this can go, but wait and see. Hard to see a big sp rebound any time soon. So far Aussie stocks haven't taken much of a US led rally, and I think another bout of selling would come by end Jan 09 so I'm sticking to mostly cash atm.

[Garpal Gumnut]

I thought $16 was going to be....:eek7:

The 98-99 highs at $12 look to have held.

For now...

eeeek


WBC going to offer SPP @ $16.. is it a good price to add more or it still value too high in this recession environment? :banghead:

It is now time for the gumnut superfund to make a decision, partake in the spp or wait for WBC to tank down to $12 and just buy some more.

A useful article on the conundrum.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/westpac-dilemma-for-shareholders-20090128-7rih.html

gg

[YELNATS]

It is now time for the gumnut superfund to make a decision, partake in the spp or wait for WBC to tank down to $12 and just buy some more.

A useful article on the conundrum.

http://business.smh.com.au/business/westpac-dilemma-for-shareholders-20090128-7rih.html

gg

As I recall the spp offer expires on 30/01, so tomoorow may the last chance to send your subscription by internet Bpay payment.

I have been watching the share price closely while on holiday in Singapore/Tokyo for most of the month and although I was leaning towards taking up the offer, $16 doesn't seem such a good deal now. I'd rather buy on-market at $14.50 or below.

I'm holding all of the top 6 or 7 banks and the only attractive capital raising which I took up recently was BEN's at $10.

[roofa]

As I recall the spp offer expires on 30/01, so tomoorow may the last chance to send your subscription by internet Bpay payment.

I have been watching the share price closely while on holiday in Singapore/Tokyo for most of the month and although I was leaning towards taking up the offer, $16 doesn't seem such a good deal now. I'd rather buy on-market at $14.50 or below.

I'm holding all of the top 6 or 7 banks and the only attractive capital raising which I took up recently was BEN's at $10.

I don't think it wll be $16, from memory it is to be average of last five days before close of offer.

[Bill M]

As I recall the spp offer expires on 30/01, so tomoorow may the last chance to send your subscription by internet Bpay payment.

I have been watching the share price closely while on holiday in Singapore/Tokyo for most of the month and although I was leaning towards taking up the offer, $16 doesn't seem such a good deal now. I'd rather buy on-market at $14.50 or below.

I'm holding all of the top 6 or 7 banks and the only attractive capital raising which I took up recently was BEN's at $10.

It is averaged out over the last 5 trading days to Jan 30. I bought my load today, it will still be cheaper through the SPP in any case. That of course is if there is no major catastrophes next week.

[YELNATS]

It is averaged out over the last 5 trading days to Jan 30. I bought my load today, it will still be cheaper through the SPP in any case. That of course is if there is no major catastrophes next week.

Sorry, you're correct, looks like the average may be say $15,20 to $15.40, just my prediction based on last 3 days plus today so far, and tomorrow to come.

Still mulling over whether to take it up, not much time left. Not as good as BOQ's offer of a 7.5% discount to their average price, although it's a bit hard to compare BOQ with WBC I know.

[Garpal Gumnut]

Sorry, you're correct, looks like the average may be say $15,20 to $15.40, just my prediction based on last 3 days plus today so far, and tomorrow to come.

Still mulling over whether to take it up, not much time left. Not as good as BOQ's offer of a 7.5% discount to their average price, although it's a bit hard to compare BOQ with WBC I know.

I decided to spare gumnuts superfund any more pain at present. I can see them falling to $12 on a technical basis, see my chart above. I have not taken up the spp. The instos must be quaking I hear you say. !!!

gg

[YELNATS]

Today's ann re WBC's capital raising:
Quote

Australia's biggest bank by market value, Westpac Banking Corporation, has received applications for about $422 million worth of new shares from retail investors.

Successful applicants will receive shares at $15.26 each, which was the volume weighted average market price for the five trading days up to and including January 30, the Sydney-based bank said in a statement on Tuesday.

Unquote

Trading today as high as $16.63, so not too bad for those, like myself who (in a limited way), took up the offer.

[kennas]

Potential breakout through 17 on WBC perhaps. Has that basing over the past 4 months been the bottom? Or a major bottom, whatever that means. Few stocks looking like this. Hmmmm.

[nomore4s]

Kennas alot of stocks have put in solid basing patterns atm and a few are now breaking out, as per my blog I'm now totally long (probably stupid) as I cannot find a decent short set up and am only getting buy signals. I think we are getting close to some kind of bottom but we might see 1 more strong leg down then could go sideways for a few years.

WBC & CBA are my 2 favoured banks based on stronger relative strength and the patterns that are forming, will be looking to add some WBC to my income portfolio in the near future but only a 1/2 parcel at the most for now.

[kennas]

WBC & CBA are my 2 favoured banks based on stronger relative strength and the patterns that are forming, will be looking to add some WBC to my income portfolio in the near future but only a 1/2 parcel at the most for now.They're my favourite too, but not in yet. Well, I was, but bailed to wait and see how short term events would unfold.

Good volume yesterday but failed to hold above that resistance at 17. Something's gotta give sooner or later I feel.

Come on bear! Rally!!

But not too much before I'm set .... :)

[kennas]

Good volume yesterday but failed to hold above that resistance at 17. Something's gotta give sooner or later I feel.
Nice break through here and the H&S target around here. A nice H&S on CBA as well.

There was movement at the station ......

[kennas]

Nice break through here and the H&S target around here. A nice H&S on CBA as well.

There was movement at the station ......H&S target practically met. Should do tomorrow with the strength in the US. CBA similar. Bottoms in?

[investedz]

Hi kennas,

Placed some long orders yesterday, but did not get filled :(

When you say h&s target is met, did you mean that the H&S is complete (too late to trade long) or confirmed (indicator to buy)?

Yeh yeh i know DYR, but i promise won't hold you liable for what you say ;)

[rick62]

Any thoughts on the interpretation of today's results? I find it difficult to read these reports and to anticipate the market reaction.
Regards
Rick

[venno]

My interest in WBC has perked up today given the drop in SP. I have been searching for some news/announcment that triggered todays selling but can't find the smoking gun.

Can anyone help out?

[KurwaJegoMac]

I believe it might be due to the the ban on short selling of financials being lifted today, although I thought they would have dropped more. Perhaps the big institutions will be shorting in the next couple of days :confused:

[ROE]

I believe it might be due to the the ban on short selling of financials being lifted today, although I thought they would have dropped more. Perhaps the big institutions will be shorting in the next couple of days :confused:

Wait till the US market open on Tuesday, Monday is their public holiday
I reckon ASIC does this deliberately so it doesn't face the pressure of the US
market and the home grown shorters

More down days for Financial stocks ahead :D

[ROE]

My interest in WBC has perked up today given the drop in SP. I have been searching for some news/announcment that triggered todays selling but can't find the smoking gun.

Can anyone help out?

shorted is lifted on financial stock today .... brace for more negative days
and any bad news give ammunition for shorter to bell the hell out of them.

I join them on MQG :) 22 millions shares so far loan out for shorter

[venno]

Made a little money out of WBC yesterday, was going to go back in today when QBE caught my eye instead.

[gfresh]

Looks like Westpac is entering a fairly predictable downtrend.. not much volume recently, meaning should fall at least another 5% with the heavy shorts loaded onto it at the moment.

Next obvious stop is $18 - $18.50.. Longer target is $17, where exists multiple long-term support, however probably a couple of months off

[kennas]

Looks like Westpac is entering a fairly predictable downtrend.. not much volume recently, meaning should fall at least another 5% with the heavy shorts loaded onto it at the moment.

Next obvious stop is $18 - $18.50.. Longer target is $17, where exists multiple long-term support, however probably a couple of months offThis was pretty good. :) Not sure about $17 now.

Market supposed to be correcting down further, but banks are going up. :confused:

Bit of a break up here, but just tentative.

I'm waiting for confirmation to add to position.

[gfresh]

Yeah.. was a tad wrong on the downtrend channel :o, although it did respect the upper trend line, broke in mid-July, and then bounced off it. More valid was probably the strong support exhibited at around $19.

Letting some profits carry, but I know I'm finding it hard to justify buying in on prices above $21.00 at the moment given so much is baked into a recovery already (watch it go to $25 now :p))..

I still like WBC next to CBA being the largest two now.

[kennas]

Good break up.

Been an amazing run for the banks, all way up off their lows. Approaching 50% in a few months.

[kennas]

Fair to say the banks have broken up significantly the past 2 days. All WAY off the March bottom. Wonder how long this will last?

Is there going to a second phase to the US recession to pile a wall of worry on the world again? Or, have we been bailed out? Surely that debt will catch up to us again. FFS California can't even pay it's contracts out and is issuing IOUs...

Whatever the case, on the charts, this looks to be a significant longer term break, imo.

Could that be a Cup and Handle there?

[googs]

Trading halt on WBC today until tomorrow morning pending outcome of court case...anyone know much about this and how it would potentially impact the share price?

[Dark1975]

Trading halt on WBC today until tomorrow morning pending outcome of court case...anyone know much about this and how it would potentially impact the share price?

Mate i'd say the shares won't be dramatically affected,Cause this case has been ongoing for a while and would have been factored in,But in short the case embroils all the major banks over a structured finance-related transactions that date back ten years ago.Further more the NAB has set aside $nz661 million to cover the possibilty of losing as have ANZ has also set aside $nz405 million.
But in reguards to the question "Anyone know much about how it will affect the share price?"Answer: No one can answer that,It's like asking me what the xao will finish tomorrow?And unfornately we can only assume or guess?In short my personal opinion is that it won't affect the price alot,Because this case has been ongoing for a while and has been factored in,one would imagine.Anyway the ruling will be announced at 11am e.s.t tomorrow morning,unless westpac announce a statement before hand!

[nhkam]

Strange trading price after market close for Westpac today.

My charting program recorded the following transaction for WBC on 01/02/2010 after market close. Can anyone tell me why this happen.

The trade is at $1.625 and the last transaction is 6:21pm.
Total volume is 191,636 shares.

[naughtynickers]

strange on etrade it has the top 2 transactions at a different price...
perhaps some director bought some shares off another for payment of relations wife his wife lol
Call ASIC :D

[skyQuake]

L5XT = late put through crossing. Just broker adjustments, nothing to worry about. Especially since it was reversed.

[nulla nulla]

Westpac reports a profit of Billions, the analysts determe that it is $100m less than their expectations and the price drops 12.5%. You have to wonder if they make negative comments to push the price down so they can stock up. The level of shorting over the past three days has been high also.
The chart shows a down trend over the past few months with the current price at the lower part of the channel. Is it due for a bounce or looking to break out downward?

[nulla nulla]

The ASX lists of shares shorted on the market showed: for Monday 23-08-10 that 24% of the volume of wbc shares traded were short sales; and on Tuesday 24-08-10 the volume of wbc traded as short sales was 38%. The figures for yesterday will not be available until after 11:00am this morning.

The patern of trading appears to be that the share price is sold down quickly, then a large amount turns over, over a longer time span appearing to stabilise the price. Then the share gets sold down again before the close, with a large amount turning over in the closing auction with the share price closing near the daily lows .

Banks clawed back some of their value on the djia last night. It will be interesting to see if banks can recover any of their value on the Australian market today.

[No Gain]

I'm hoping they claw back and don't drop down further. I bought in on the 29th of July at $24.27 so not at all happy with this shorting that is going on at the moment. Hopefully buyers start coming back in soon!:mad:

[skyQuake]

The ASX lists of shares shorted on the market showed: for Monday 23-08-10 that 24% of the volume of wbc shares traded were short sales; and on Tuesday 24-08-10 the volume of wbc traded as short sales was 38%. The figures for yesterday will not be available until after 11:00am this morning.

The patern of trading appears to be that the share price is sold down quickly, then a large amount turns over, over a longer time span appearing to stabilise the price. Then the share gets sold down again before the close, with a large amount turning over in the closing auction with the share price closing near the daily lows .

Banks clawed back some of their value on the djia last night. It will be interesting to see if banks can recover any of their value on the Australian market today.

Think you are reading that wrong - the asx report shows total short sold; Not daily short sold.


WBC

Date Total SS
23/08/2010 3,068,802
24/08/2010 5,196,805
25/08/2010 2,758,760

ie, 3mil shorts were covered yesterday.

[Garpal Gumnut]

A Flag in a Downtrend, Trading range, could be a problem for the bulls.

gg

[nulla nulla]

Think you are reading that wrong - the asx report shows total short sold; Not daily short sold.


WBC

Date Total SS
23/08/2010 3,068,802
24/08/2010 5,196,805
25/08/2010 2,758,760

ie, 3mil shorts were covered yesterday.

While showing my ignorance, what is the difference? The asx report is for the number of short sold shares on the preceding day, which I read as the "daily" total of shares shorted on the nominated day?

[3aq1e]

How much longer do people think bank shares will continue to decline.. particularly wbc.

[nulla nulla]

With the politicians filling time playing "lets kick the banks arround" and the "know-it-all overseas economists" saying "lets impose stricter regulations on all banks" it isn't surprising to see the market price getting pushed down again.
However at what point will the market decide they are becoming a bargain?

wbc has the best price earnings ratio atm, just posted another record profit and increased the dividend which is fully franked. On Friday 12/11/10 the price was in the range $21.80 to $22.16. The ASX shows the level of wbc shares being shorted on a daily basis for Wednesday 10/11/10 was over 40%.

Assuming the shorters have pushed the price down to accumulate, can we expect to see it bounce from here or will it continue down to test the $21.00 support level?

[nulla nulla]

wbc seemed to be maintaining a tenacious grip on the price range $21.80 - $22.00 and after the bounce in Europe overnight and the U.S I was half expecting a lift in the share price above $22.20.

So it came as a bit of a surprise when wbc fell to an interday low of $21.50 before closing on $21.62. With the resurfacing of the European Sovereign debt issues don't be surprised if wbc tests $21.00 or lower next week.

[oztrades]

Every picture tells a story...
any number of reasons could explain the banks plights at the moment... from mortgage stress to unbelievable profits, however my theory is that the banks arent being supported because the insto's have to make the QRN float work so they have been pulling profits.

[So_Cynical]

Apparently there is alot of international money shorting the banks as a proxy for Aussie housing...as the housing bubble deflates so will the bank stocks that have 70% of there money in Aussie housing.

[TraderMM]

I have a theory on the reason why the banks are down, including WBC, and it has nothing to do with fundamentals.

Earlier this year the IMF put out a report saying that aussie housing is some of the most expensive in the world. Consequently US based funds concluded there is an imminent property crash here and decide to short aussie banks. Unfortunately for them not only is there little or no likelihood of a property crash here, our banks are strong, have reported great profits, paid good dividends, and the AUD has moved up against the USD big time. Their short positions are way out of the money. In the meantime these funds are desperately trying to talk down the banks. Recently there were reports in the financial media about overseas investors attempting to set the seeds of doubt by asking Fitch to stress test aussie banks. There has been a huge weight of speculative overseas money on the short side of the banks. No wonder they are down.

I know this sounds like a bit of a conspiracy theory but has anyone else made similar observations?

[So_Cynical]

Unfortunately for them not only is there little or no likelihood of a property crash here, our banks are strong, have reported great profits, paid good dividends, and the AUD has moved up against the USD big time.

Its a popular call...people said the same thing a few years back in Ireland, Spain, Japan, the US and most of Europe and of course they were very wrong, some say "but its different here" and what about "supply and demand" etc etc.

Those factors didn't work in the rest of the world and they wont work here...bubbles are unsustainable its a fact, the Aussie banks are massively exposed to housing and ready to take a tumble.

[YELNATS]

Its a popular call...people said the same thing a few years back in Ireland, Spain, Japan, the US and most of Europe and of course they were very wrong, some say "but its different here" and what about "supply and demand" etc etc.

Those factors didn't work in the rest of the world and they wont work here...bubbles are unsustainable its a fact, the Aussie banks are massively exposed to housing and ready to take a tumble.

Assertions, assertions. You may be correct and it's all very well to assert this, but do you have evidence to back up your assertions?

I'm a prospective real estate buyer in 2011, so I'm very interested in your justifications.

[sptrawler]

Well the only OBVIOUS thing that can cause a housing collapse is people not being able to meet their payments. This would only happen if there was an increase in job losses and at this point in time this would only occur if China reduced it's demand for our resources.
It could be argued that the U.S, U.K and Europe, who are the biggest consumers, are in recession and therefore not purchasing as many Chinese products. Also many believe the Chinese could pull the rug on infrastructure spending. If this happened it would not only be the banks that cop a beating all our stocks would be trashed.

[ginar]

THis may or may not be responsible for weakness in bank stocks here , likely a combination of a few things , rate rises here , euro zone soveriegn debt issues . ........... bank index in US has been stuck in a range for near on 7 months , could break either way

http://www.reuters.com/article/idUSTRE6AL0A220101122?utm_source=Triggermail&utm_medium=email&utm_term=10+Things+Before+the+Opening+Bell&utm_campaign=10Thing_NL_11222010

[nulla nulla]

Downward channel as discussed in chat. The lower bar starts Sept 16 to Nov low, upper bar is parralel to that.

[ginar]

Downward channel as discussed in chat. The lower bar starts Sept 16 to Nov low, upper bar is parralel to that.

yeah easier to see in picture form no doubt , mine here is showing the slightly older alternative TL resistance . its certainly is approaching a point to watch

[dougy]

For my 2-bob's worth, the medium-term view seems to hint at a continuing gradual decline.

Price on the weekly chart seems to meander between $21 and $24.
Meantime, 39-bar Stochastic shows WBC in a medium-longterm decline, and Relative Strength Comparison against weekly XAO is clearly below par.

Will endeavour to upload a weekly chart.

[nulla nulla]

I have overlaid the downward channel over the corresponding RSI chart. Todays price action shows an upward breakout from the upper channel bar.

IMO the RSI chart suggests the price is venturing into the overbought area as it has gapped up from the moving average price. However given its recent fluctuation between $21 - $24, I wouldn't be surprised to see it go a little higher.

40027

The MACD chart also shows that the price has gapped upward away from the moving average. Volume of turnover is fairly good and the recent news effecting the share price has improved from the constant bashing bank stocks were receiving.

40028

The moving Averages chart appears to indicate a revesal from the downward trend. Fingers crossed. :)

40029

[nulla nulla]

Closing on $23.00 today after tapping $23.05 for the interday high. There was a good turnover through the day at $23.00. In the dying stages of trading wbc fell back to $22.95 but the buyers in the auction pushed the price back up to $23.00. I wonder how much of it was shorters closing out, now it is known that Waynes Swans proposed changes to banking will have minimal impact on the big banks?
If wbc can break through $23.10 it could work its' way back up to the $24.00 range.

[RandR]

Bought in at 22.15

I believe the outlook to be good, the only reason i would sell other then for profit taking is if employment rates deteriotate or something fundamentally changes with the business/australian economy. Although im looking at holding for 1yr plus or more unless i decide to take profit beforehand. I believe alot of the SP of this stock is driven mostly by distributions, as a lot of people see it as a yeild stock, so expecting to make some decent return on price in the 2nd half of this year when there dividend season is open.

[ozbrit]

WBC SP is on a good run at present and out-performing the other three. I suspect this may be a buy on the rumour/sell on the fact story. Anyone know when they're reporting, I think it's before the end of the month sometime.

[RandR]

WBC SP is on a good run at present and out-performing the other three. I suspect this may be a buy on the rumour/sell on the fact story. Anyone know when they're reporting, I think it's before the end of the month sometime.

Could be. I was happy to lock in some profits, sold at 25.

I have a fairly gloomy feeling that credit growth is/has been quite difficult for the banks in the last few months and in the next year or more, so was happy to take profit before the results came in.

As someone at my workplace told me the other day "you wouldnt believe how much the banks will lend me at the moment" ... i smiled and took it as a possible warning.

[Judd]

Anyone know when they're reporting, I think it's before the end of the month sometime.

4th of May.

Check this link for details on a number of companies. You can access it via the ASX web-site

http://www.brr.com.au/partner/asx/calendar/2011/05

[nulla nulla]

While the rest of the world has been sneaking higher and higher, the xao took a contrarian stance and (led by resources and banks) went downwards against the trend.

WBC had been making gains against the other banks, (mind you it had lagged behind and was overdue for a catchup particularly against anz) took a hit this week giving away most of it's hard fought gains.

Realistically, despite all the hard ships about financing costs sprooked by Ms Kelly, there hasn't been any profit downgrades and I expect the report to be another bumper profit. No doubt there will be a further rally when the report comes out. If the share price keeps slipping, I will add some to the portfolio and (hopefully) ride the rally up til it goes exdiv.

As always do your own research, all care and no responsibility. What would I know, my last trade on wbc only got across the line on the strengh of the div and the franking credit.

[RandR]

While the rest of the world has been sneaking higher and higher, the xao took a contrarian stance and (led by resources and banks) went downwards against the trend.

WBC had been making gains against the other banks, (mind you it had lagged behind and was overdue for a catchup particularly against anz) took a hit this week giving away most of it's hard fought gains.

Realistically, despite all the hard ships about financing costs sprooked by Ms Kelly, there hasn't been any profit downgrades and I expect the report to be another bumper profit. No doubt there will be a further rally when the report comes out. If the share price keeps slipping, I will add some to the portfolio and (hopefully) ride the rally up til it goes exdiv.

As always do your own research, all care and no responsibility. What would I know, my last trade on wbc only got across the line on the strengh of the div and the franking credit.

Interested to know if youve taken advantage of the dip to top up nulla ?

I was happy to close out at 25, if the SP moves down into the 22's in the near future i'll consider taking another bite at it, but I am quite worried about WBC ability to generate credit growth over the next year or two with a stalling domestic housing market, but none the less, will keep an eye on it. Would be happy to acquire some again at a suitably 'cheap' price, maybe the next few weeks will present such an opportunity.

[nulla nulla]

Interested to know if youve taken advantage of the dip to top up nulla ?

I was happy to close out at 25, if the SP moves down into the 22's in the near future i'll consider taking another bite at it, but I am quite worried about WBC ability to generate credit growth over the next year or two with a stalling domestic housing market, but none the less, will keep an eye on it. Would be happy to acquire some again at a suitably 'cheap' price, maybe the next few weeks will present such an opportunity.

Not yet. I thought the report was good. I noted the concerns re provision for potential defaults on existing mortgages and considered the market reaction was an over reaction. My opinion only.

WBC finished on the lows today and I expect it to drift lower again tomorrow (but it may only be brief) before those wanting to take advantage of the increased dividend and franking credits start to accumulate. I also expect a run up before it goes exdiv.

However the chart indicates the bottom of the channel could be as low as $22.80ish. I personaly would be watching closely for any bounce in the area of $23.50. Can't always pick the bottom, could be horribly wrong. IMO $23.50 and a bit of patience allows for a run up over $24.00 and a margin for a trade profit.

It's the external factors that you really have to try and factor in at the moment. The Sovereign debt issues worldwide, employment, inflation and the housing price bubble, etc etc.

As always do your own research (and keep some disposable nappies handy) :)

[nulla nulla]

WBC keeps getting negative overviews even when they post increased profits. Some times you have to wonder what analysts expect. IMO wbc is undevalued when compared to the CBA, NAB & ANZ. However opinion counts for nothing when the market sentiment is negative and the share price keeps dropping.

Recent highs are getting higher and lows appear to be higher as well.

[romeo]

another down day for Westpac, I'm glad I sold the other day @ 24.49.

I thought the report was pretty good and seemed to have good reviews in the papers etc. Perhaps the SP movement is due to a weaker outlook.

[nulla nulla]

Normally a share like wbc would run up in price before it goes exdiv. wbc however has run down before going exdiv closing at $23.73 (at one stage it got down to $23.51 for the second time this week).

On monday the share will be trading exdiv and I will not be surprised to see it drop $1.00 to the mid $22's. Bloody silly imo, wbc continues to post profit increases yet it is trading closer to the gfc lows than the pre gfc highs.

Still good opportunities for anyone confident of rebounds. As always DYOR.

[RandR]

Normally a share like wbc would run up in price before it goes exdiv. wbc however has run down before going exdiv closing at $23.73 (at one stage it got down to $23.51 for the second time this week).

On monday the share will be trading exdiv and I will not be surprised to see it drop $1.00 to the mid $22's. Bloody silly imo, wbc continues to post profit increases yet it is trading closer to the gfc lows than the pre gfc highs.

Still good opportunities for anyone confident of rebounds. As always DYOR.

If WBC does continue a slide i think it could present a decent buying opportunity, my concern with the profit increases is that they were driven by 'acquisition benefits' of st george, do you think these sort of profit increases are sustainable in the future ? That I think is the key question to the australian banking industry at large atm. But im happy to bite at the $22's.

[romeo]

depending on your time frame you may want to wait.

The short term chart looks like it's in a down trend, as they say, don't try to catch a falling knife. It has certainly traded below the trending channel in the charts posted above; however this was exacerbated by going ex div.

There is a pretty major support line at 22. I would wait and see if it tests this. If it goes below, the next major support is at 21.

(apologies for not posting a chart)

[romeo]

Having a look again at the charts and it seems that the SP has bounced nicely off the lower trendline.

Anyone have any other views on this?

This could be good for those trading the channel...

[skc]

Having a look again at the charts and it seems that the SP has bounced nicely off the lower trendline.

Anyone have any other views on this?

This could be good for those trading the channel...

If I was to trade WBC I would look at the other Big 4 as well. If they all show signs of strength than the set up will be more valid imo.

ANZ is looking to close the dividend gap and possibly challenge the top of the channel.
CBA looks to be forming a rising triangle.
NAB has the best strength and is retesting recent resistances (now support).

That's with the bullish lens anyway. Moody's downgraded all Big4 long term debt today but I don't believe that will have any real impact on the share price - they merely move inline with S&P belatedly...

42961

[nulla nulla]

I'm surprised that anyone takes any notice of moody's and the other rating agencies. Their "ratings for fees" is highly questionable at the best of times and after the collapse of the well rated companies and products in the gfc, i think anything they say should be taken with a grain of salt....or 2 or 3.

[nulla nulla]

Bounced off $22.48 after going exdiv. Hit $23.06 and $23.07 before falling back, Wednesday & Thursday. Then fell back to low $22.70's today. It could go lower, however the recent lows have been higher which to me suggests we are in for a slow sideways/upwards climb? Or maybe I'm completely wrong and about to lose my shirt. :)

[nulla nulla]

Ouch, just when you think it is safe to go back in the water along come the sharks. This week wbc got smacked down to $21.46 as the doomsdayers sprooked the potentail negative impact of a collapsing Australian property market combined with an anticipatated forthcoming interest rate rise and the likelihood of the european sovereign debt having a negative impact on the 30 -40% of mortgage funds westpac borrows off shore.

Get real. Westpac over accrued for doubtful debt during the gfc and is now reducing same. Westpac has increased the ratio of deposits/mortgages and reduced it's reliance on overseas funding. The overseas funding is spread over a few years and doesn't fall due tomorrow. It all sounds like a beat up as the hedge funds decide to short the share price and spread the negative news. Fortunately the market let them run then started buying up, wbc being seen to be a bargain at $21.50 with a yield close to 10% when you factor in the franking credit.

The shorters are obviously getting squeezed out. WBC rebounded yesterday and after another pointless down grade of NZ banks by that esteemed ratings agency moody's the price jumped almost 10c in the auction as the professionals bought up the oversold stock.

Can't wait for next week.

[Joshbl098]

I dont think such harsh movements are due to the current news in the world, but due to the natural technical side of things. I think WBC is just about to climb to its second shoulder according to the head and shoulders analysis. Although, then again, im just a stupid first year who hasnt been in the market for very long... haha.
This could also work well as an elliot wave, 3 wave cycle down.43083

[nulla nulla]

I bought some at $21.51 last week thinking there would be a rebound over the next two weeks to the $22.50 - $23.00 range (approximate to the exdiv price of $23.73 less the div and franking credit plus some small recovery).

It looked good when it rebounded to $22.25 however the support was short lived. WBC dropped back to $21.87 at yesterdays close. Volumes were lower yesterday, but I suspect this is due to buyers holding back rather than sellers pushing down.

Buyers appear to be sitting on the sidelines, holding back, due to a combination of concerns in regard the European sovereign debt debacle, the U.S.A having a long weekend and our own Real Estate Market having low clearances last (rainy) weekend.

If it drifts lower I will consider soaking some more up for a longer term trade.

[Joshbl098]

Hmm, as it would be natural for a market to worry pre GDP and house data, today stocks are up led by banks... I don't think the news is having that great deal of impact on the stock price. WBC broke through it's line if resistance pretty sharply, rising to 25.60 that quickly would cause major pessamism about the SP. Now that the stock as broken through the support level of $22 I would now assume best case scenario that the stock will begin it's way back up to the original resistance, or continue to fall to the next level of support 21$.

I bought it on Monday at 22.09, right at the open, probably a mistake to do so because if I had of waited half an hour the stock would fall below 22 again.
In worst case scenario, if the stock falls bellow 21.50 I'll buy more. I can see the stock climbing back to 24 within the next month.
DYOR

[nulla nulla]

If it hits $25.60 in a hurry I'll sell the lot. Todays price action was interesting. Climbed from a low $21.84 to the interday high of $22.19. The volume at $22.12 was huge.
If the international markets are up tonight, tomorrow should be even better.

[nulla nulla]

International markets were up, however Australian finance stocks were on the nose today. wbc retraced to close on $21.95. Not low enough to go in for more. not high enough to sell. The waiting game begins.

[Joshbl098]

Ugh... today is going to be horrible... Market is open for 2 minutes and everything is in the red.
Im really reluctant to sell since I see such a great oppertunity to make money within the next month/s if the world can just chill out for a moment. Im going to hold onto them. If there is going to be a double dip, there has to be a second bull first... right?:confused: haha

[nulla nulla]

Ugh... today is going to be horrible... Market is open for 2 minutes and everything is in the red.
Im really reluctant to sell since I see such a great oppertunity to make money within the next month/s if the world can just chill out for a moment. Im going to hold onto them. If there is going to be a double dip, there has to be a second bull first... right?:confused: haha

If you think Thursday was bad, Friday was worse. For a while it looked like wbc would claw it's way back above $21.60 but then in the latter part of the day the sellers pushed it down to $21.30 with the price bouncing to $21.35 in the close.

The charts indicate the share as "oversold" but the market sentiment for banks atm is bad and there is every likelihood that the price could get pushed further down. International markets are all contracting under the negative feedback of the economic "recovery" and Australian banks are getting sept along with the tide.

DYOR, imo it is currently a "buy" but with my luck the price will only drop lower before the sentiments swing back in favour of banks.

[ginar]

WBC sees 21.00 as key support .

[Joshbl098]

I'm holding onto the stock I bought at 22.09, with money ready to buy at close to 21.00. i might buy if the stock hits 21.10, to make sure i dont miss the low just in case. but likewise i suspect wbc's real line of support is 21. so ill buy, and if it goes down further, ill hold on.
what is happening to the economy is the same as what was happening with companies those couple years ago. Greece is getting bailed out, so will any others if need be. Australian banks are well managed and guaranteed. personally i think the current price is a ridiculous opportunity, and if people just hold on then they will be fine.
traders are finding any reason to sell because the stocks optometrist power has reached its max, and soon, its pessimistic power will die. just watch, i bet in a couple weeks nothing will stop the soaring bulls.

[poverty]

just watch, i bet in a couple weeks nothing will stop the soaring bulls.

Hold for QE3 and the miraculous market 'rally' that will follow.

[Julia]

traders are finding any reason to sell because the stocks optometrist power has reached its max, and soon, its pessimistic power will die. just watch, i bet in a couple weeks nothing will stop the soaring bulls.
What is 'optometrist power'?

[poverty]

What is 'optometrist power'?

That's the ability to see market forces that you cannot.

[nulla nulla]

What is 'optometrist power'?

Getting new glasses when you are having trouble reading the charts??

[Joshbl098]

Hahahaha.
Optimistic.

[Joshbl098]

Very embarrassing.. haha

[KurwaJegoMac]

traders are finding any reason to sell because the stocks optometrist power has reached its max, and soon, its pessimistic power will die. just watch, i bet in a couple weeks nothing will stop the soaring bulls.

Just out of curiosity, exactly how are you measuring 'optimising/pessimistic power' and how have you determined when it is at a maximum or minimum?

[Joshbl098]

Well, you cant. I didn't write that statement for everyone to try and find whats wrong with it, or take advice from it, I'm just participating in discussion about how I feel about the stock.
All I'm saying is that I FEEL that there gets to a point in the market when people fear about what other people may do. And other peoples reactions are based on the same fear. So if one person were to think the price has peaked and begins to worry others think so too, they sell there stock, and of course, that's what everyone else is thinking, so the SP falls... I mean that's the core basics of how the stock market works...
And I use the word "power" to describe how rapidly the stock rises then falls again.

[nulla nulla]

Westpac spent the best part of the week trying to bounce, however every time it rallied interday it would get pushed back before close. After an "up" night on the international markets on Thursday, Westpac opened above $22.00 on Friday morning.

Unfortunately it was all down hill from there, pushing down below Thursdays close to rally slightly in the last 20 minutes to close 6c higher. I had to laugh when the channel 9 6:00 o'clock news included westpac in their finance report as having a good result.

The djia fall of 176 Friday night doesn't bode well for our finance stocks next week.

[The_Snowman]

lot of charts in this thread so may as well throw mine in the mix :)

you can see where this program gave sell signal, target was hit, but no buy signal yet :2twocents

[nulla nulla]

My buy signal was $21.51 on May 25th. I accumulated some more at $21.51 on June 2nd and again at $21.46 on June 3rd. We are a bit overweight with wbc so I unloaded some yesterday, locking in moderate profit and preserving capital. I will re-enter if it drops below $21.80.

[nulla nulla]

After the publication of two articles in todays Sydney Morning Herald Business section I was not surprised to see wbc open lower and fall. The articles painted a fairly negative perspective of the Western Sydney component of morgages written by wbc in the period 2008 - 2009. Apparantly the sky is going to fall and the potential late or missed mortgage payments will cause wbc to miss their expected billion dollar profits.

We almost got back in at $21.81 but fortunately held back long enough for the entry on the second dip to $21.61. No doubt it will be cheaper tomorrow.

As always do your own research, and remember I am biased, I hold wbc (Sometimes I think the ratings agencies work hand in glove with the hedge funds when they want something negative printed so they can short the stock).

[Joshbl098]

I agree with you completely, some guy out there is making bucket loads from shorting this stock. Today was a shocker... Lets hope there is a reversal. Good day to buy in...

[nulla nulla]

Westpac got hit hardest of all the banks and the interday low of $21.05 was the lowest it has been this year. If this is the start of the second "dip" I am in big trouble :) If it is a correction with any hope of a rebound then I am not in trouble :) .

I am giving it another 2 weeks to play out. If it is still in the red come 30 June I will close out the losses to offset capital gains (then probably go back in for any rebound).

[alexandro]

I am also heavy WBC and sitting on a 30k loss. We need to get rid of June quickly and go into July. Sun should start to shine again. Should be ok since ASX200 closed above key support on friday (4477). The indicators looked good there for a day or two last week, but then turned away. Just need DOW and All Ords to finish going down and start going up. Your idea of allowing 2 weeks for things to play out is a good one and should give enough time for things to turn better. If ASX200 is under 5000 by 30 December, it will be undervalued. So between now and end of year, I feel ASX200 has 400-500 points to gain. This will lift WBC back to at least 23 (conservative). We may also get 23+ in 4 weeks. WBC is like a coiled spring right now, a few hundred points gain on DOW overnight and ASX200 (with an plan for Greece proposed, and minute good USA data) should make it put on a buck or two. With hindsight, we will look back at this mid-year period on the charts and say "look at that, thats when we should have pushed it all in". June needs to finish.

[nulla nulla]

I locked in a modest profit yesterday at $22.18 (on a parcel purchased at $21.35) then watched the price spike to $22.32. Picking bottoms and tops is to elusive for me. Happy to have a profit.

Was hoping to unload another parcel (purchased at $21.61) today at $22.31 but didn't have the sale in and the share price dipped soon after open and never looked like comming back.

WBC seems to get hit hardest of the banks when there is any sort of retrace, probably something to do with St Georges's exposure to NSW mortgages. That and the hedge funds still expecting Australia to have a real-estate bubble burst like the yanks did. Stupid buggers don't realize we don't have the exposure to "ninja" property loans like they did. Still, makes for swings with entry/exit prices providing opportunities for quick trades. :)

43470

Good to see the flurry of buyers come in at the auction lifting the close back above $22.00. Maybe there is hope yet.

[nulla nulla]

Westpac appears to have closed at the top of a new resistance point. It will be interesting to see if the market decides it should break out from here and climb to $23.00+ or whether it should get sold off back down to the low $21.00's.

[Garpal Gumnut]

Thanks nulla,

I've been watching WBC meself, and agree with your analysis.

The only thing that concerns me is the decreasing volume over the last two weeks or more on this increase in price.

The oversold rsi when price has trended sideways as usual shows good correlation with a break upwards, not present atm, although the price has trended up, which could explain this.

I do hate fundamentals, but has the danger been priced in to banks, or will they trade sideways for a year or more?

Monday will assist. I may buy if it rises but if it falls I'll be looking like you at low 21's which shows good support.

gg

[nulla nulla]

The only thing that concerns me is the decreasing volume over the last two weeks or more on this increase in price.

I suspect this may be because a lot of Australian investors are sitting on the side lines waiting for the Carbon Tax fallout to settle.


The oversold rsi when price has trended sideways as usual shows good correlation with a break upwards, not present atm, although the price has trended up, which could explain this.

There was speculation several weeks ago that Overseas Hedge funds are shorting Australian Banks relative to their mortgage exposure on the Eastern Coast. Westpac having the highest exposure through the combo of Westpac and St George.

The basis of this being the expectation that our housing prices are inflated and the bubble will burst as did the u.s.a. notwithstanding that the u.s.a market was built on "ninja" loans and their banks did not have the same degree of regulation and management standards as ours.

This could be causing a problem to the shorters in that having pushed the price down, local investers come in on the basis of TA/FA for the yield, franking and lower price earnings ratio. This appears to put a floor under the price in the low $21.00 area. Obviously the shorters are also able to soak up shares at the lower levels and even turn small amounts of shares back into buying encouraging the price up to the point they start shorting again. Reverse swing trading perhaps?


I do hate fundamentals, but has the danger been priced in to banks, or will they trade sideways for a year or more?

Personally I think we are going to see sideways trading in Australia for some time to come and not just in banks. Australia is pretty much ripe for the picking by international hedge funds and perhaps foreign governments.


Monday will assist. I may buy if it rises but if it falls I'll be looking like you at low 21's which shows good support.

gg

I'm hopefull of an upward break out but cashed up to come back in if it tests the low $21.00's. As always this post is an opinion only and not a recommendation. Readers should do their own research etc.

[nulla nulla]

I thought our market would test lower levels today and wbc would be under $21.00.

The low for the day was $21.12 (twice, double bounce?) then before the close it clawed it's way back up to $21.23. However in the auction it was pushed back down to close on $21.14, same as yesterdays close.

Can't work out if it is because of exposure to Italy, Carbon Tax or Property Prices going to fall?

[Julia]

Can't work out if it is because of exposure to Italy, Carbon Tax or Property Prices going to fall?
Presumably a mixture of the local falling confidence levels due to government incompetence, reinforced by the 'details' of the carbon tax, along with the utter mess in Europe and the possibility that if the US doesn't get it together before 2 August, they will default on their debt.

Quite enough, all up, to cause a loss of confidence, I'd have thought!

[nulla nulla]

Presumably a mixture of the local falling confidence levels due to government incompetence, reinforced by the 'details' of the carbon tax, along with the utter mess in Europe and the possibility that if the US doesn't get it together before 2 August, they will default on their debt.

Quite enough, all up, to cause a loss of confidence, I'd have thought!

Nah..I don't think it is Government competence or lack there-of or the carbon tax details. I think it is a combo of:

1. Reliance (although low) on a component of overseas funding for local mortgages which will get more expensive if there is a default;
2. Having bought Italion and other European governement bonds; and
3. The overseas hedge funds still trying to short our banks down in anticipation of a Australia property price collapse.

All overated and presenting investors/traders with competitive entry points, imo. As always do your own research.

[nulla nulla]

It goes up on "irrational exuberance" and down on "irrational fear" and plunges on panic. Today someone hit the panic button. All the banks took a hit but wbc seemed to take a bigger hit then the other majors.

In the afternoon there was a lot of support in the range $20.62 - $20.68 with the clawing back to $20.74 then jumping back to $20.77 in the auction but the mood is definitely negative.

Todays interday low at $20.61 was lower than the interday low of $20.73 on 1 July 2010 although todays closing price was higher. If it can't rebound from here the next support level goes back to the interday low of $19.60 on 23 July 2009.

Life jackets on and buckets and pumps at the ready in case we take on more water.

[blue0810]

If hedge fund are shorting Australian banks. Well I’m joining them. Too late ..Not sure

[nulla nulla]

Financial stocks took another battering today (except McQuarrie Bank) and the fear mongering and sell down continues.

43654

Watching closely for the first signs of stability on the international scene (Italy) for a viable re-entry point. Also being cautious that this may be the continuation of a longer term sideways and downward trend. I'd like to think things are not so bad as they were during the implosion of the gfc.

[blue0810]

This week all banks in Red:

-5.20 ANZ
-5.41 CBA
-7,00 NAB
-7.66 WBC
-7.02 BOQ
-3.06 BEN
-6.32 MQG

[Julia]

Financial stocks took another battering today (except McQuarrie Bank) and the fear mongering and sell down continues.
Why are you calling it fear mongering? The fear is quite justified, so it doesn't constitute 'fear mongering' which supposes an artificially and unrealistically based fear.

PS try Macquarie Bank Australia

[notting]

Banks are really being overly talked down at present. It's an advantage being an Ausi because we don't have to worry about the currency height with respect to stock decisions. We can buy em at these great levels and sit back, take the franked dividends and wait for the sun to come out. It will. If the best banks in the world don't get back up life will not be worth living anyway so what the hell!!

[nulla nulla]

Why are you calling it fear mongering? The fear is quite justified, so it doesn't constitute 'fear mongering' which supposes an artificially and unrealistically based fear.

PS try Macquarie Bank Australia

I respect your right to your opinion and your right to express your opinion, after all Australia is still a democracy. Also I thank you for the spelling lesson.

[nulla nulla]

Banks are really being overly talked down at present. It's an advantage being an Ausi because we don't have to worry about the currency height with respect to stock decisions. We can buy em at these great levels and sit back, take the franked dividends and wait for the sun to come out. It will. If the best banks in the world don't get back up life will not be worth living anyway so what the hell!!

Having read many articles and listened to several economist in the media discussing the strengths and weaknesses of the Australian banks versus the international banks (not just wbc) I would have to say most of them are supportive of our banks. Nothwithstanding they have confirmed that Australian banks have an exposure to Italian Government Bonds. This is possibly linked to their sourcing credit from the European banks that the Aussie banks need to have European Government Bonds as security for the lines of credit.

The Ratings agencies like Moodies; Standard and Poor and; Fitches down graded Australian Banks (which the banks duly reported to the ASX as required under the disclosure laws). The down grade was on the basis that:
1. Australian Banks source funds from Europe to finance their mortgage books (which could get more expensive or difficult to get if a default in Greece etc occured);
2. Australian Real Estate prices are at inflated levels:
3. That the property price bubble is about to burst, causing a collapse of our real estate market like that which occured in the u.s.a.; and
4. Our banks will have exposure to losses due to defaulting martgagees.

The reality is that aussie banks have been sourcing funds from Europe for over 19 years to finance mortgages, it is not something new. Also, since the gfc, aussie banks have significantly reduced their reliance on overseas banks for funding, being able to access funds from increased savings pools of aussie customers as well as being able to tap bond markets arround the world.

Australia doesn't have the "ninja" problem the u.s.a. had. Our unemployment is below 5% and the mortgage default situation in Australia is minimal. In some areas residential prices are dropping but in others they are holding or continuing to increase. If there is a bubble the pop will have minimal impact across Australia (except maybe the Gold Coast and Sunshine Coast in Qld).

Foreign hedge funds talking down our banks and real estate, simply demonstrates their lack of knowledge of the Australian economy. While the hedge funds have the financial resources to push prices down, eventually they will wake up to the fact that Australia is not about to have a depression. If things got really bad here the RBA would step in to assist the local banks and the goverment will guarantee the major banks. Glen Stevens has already said as much.

The push down does provide entry opportunities for investors prepared to take a long term view, benefiting in the short term from dividends and franking credits while yields are at 8% plus and benefiting in the long term from capitial gains when things return to normal.

IMO It is unlikely that the Euro member countries will let Italy go to the wall. However while they dicker about what they can do, the markets will probablt jump up and down like it did when the Euro members dickered about Greece. This could provided trading opportunities for the stout hearted. As always do your own research and good luck.

I apologise in advance for any spelling errors in this post. :)

[Julia]

I apologise in advance for any spelling errors in this post. :)
Couldn't find any this time, nulla, just a few typos.:D:D
Probably was a bit cranky of me to point out the spelling for Macquarie.

[nulla nulla]

There is another article in the Saturday Sydney Morning Herald worth a mention, the prediction by the westpac economist Bill Evans, of a 1% interest rate fall over the next 12 months.

Here is the link...

http://www.smh.com.au/business/westpac-rates-to-fall-1-20110715-1hi9s.html


A significant perspective in his reasoning is..."Interest rates were ''too high'' given the weakness in non-mining parts of the economy, according to the chief economist at Westpac, Bill Evans, who predicted the Reserve would deliver moribund consumers a cut of one quarter of a percentage point at its December meeting. Further three-month instalments of 0.25 percentage point cuts would follow, he predicted. ''While the catalyst for the first rate cut is likely to come from offshore, we do not expect it to be a one-off,'' he said. ''Interest rates are too high in Australia given the state of the non-mining sectors of the domestic economy and a downward adjustment is required to avert a damaging round of contraction.''

(My bold) It could be interpreted as "Things are going to get worse before they get better". Next week (and possibly the next few months) will be very interesting.

Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/westpac-rates-to-fall-1-20110715-1hi9s.html#ixzz1SFvUT01K

[alexandro]

During the early recovery from the GFC (April/May 2009), these current levels (20.50) acted as resistance and it could not break above it and into 21’s until late July 2009. Last years early July rebound came from support at 20.56 level. So seems the roughly 20.50 level is resistance turned support and we are right on support now. It should be a rebound from here of some size, small or large. If no rebound from here, then fears about Australian housing and falls in Australian banks are real and coming, in which case WBC will go under 20 and potentially 17.50 (could even do a revisit of GFC lows depending on severity of panic). I can’t see it go under 20 or can’t see it yet. If WBC rebounds from here and never comes back under these levels, then this was all fear and panic and there was no Australian housing bubble and banks at these prices were a bargain. Use your instincts.
The 50% fall in Australian bank stocks during the GFC was for what reason? Profits didn’t fall that much. Australian housing didn’t fall that much. So it was fear and panic, artificial and unrealistic based. The same could be happening right now.

[ginar]

Its not looking good is it . CBA finish on friday may give a reprieve to the other 3 for a while . under my key of 21.00 , i wouldnt touch it personally .

[nulla nulla]

Westpac dropped to $20.50 last Friday and seemed to consolidate there on Monday & Tuesday this week. The share price rallied back above the $21.00 mark, finishing the week at $21.60 (Interday high of $21.74).

The news out of Europe was positive for the rescue of Greece. No doubt the market reads into this the bail out deals will be available for Italy and/or any other Euro member country that needs it. The news out of u.s.a continue to oscilate between good reports from companies like IBM giving hope that the economy is slowly on the mend, to the ongoing congressional battle to have the debt ceiling raised reminding everyone that the u.s.a. economy is stuffed.

43723

It wouldn't surprise me for wbc to test the low $22.00's next week. Balancing that I fully expect the share price to fall again on the slightest rumour of any further fiscal discord in Europe. It is these rises and falls that makes for trading oportunites, mind you the swings can be sudden and a stout heart is a prerequisite.

[IrishDigger]

Good on you Ms Kelly -- it takes a Kelly to sort things out.:aus:

Click Here For News Report (http://au.finance.yahoo.com/news/Westpac-Kelly-says-cautious-aap-1171030965.html?x=0)

[ajjack]

Wow! watch the SP take off now.

Cant wait.....

[nulla nulla]

Forget about the low $22.00's. With the brinkmanship between the U.S President and the Republican Speaker creating a mexican standoff, the world is getting nervous and pulling it's money out of the share markets, particularly finance sectors. WBC tested $20.54 today, only slightly above last weeks lows of $20.51.

The deadline is 02 August 2011 for the debt ceiling to be raised failing which the u.s.a will be in default. If there isn't a quick compromise things will get worse Friday (tomorow) and Monday, Tuesday, Next week. If they reach a compromise on Tuesday night our time then I expect wbc to jump at least 2% on Wednesday.

If they don't reach a compromise by Tuesday night our time..........well you work it out for yourselves, I'll be down at the red cross looking for a blood transfusion.

[alexandro]

Normally a rebound arrives at 2 months or less. When you go through the WBC historical chart, you can see that the most stubborn and problematic decline from peak to trough has lasted 2 months and 3 weeks before a meaningful rebound has occurred. Even in the depths of the GFC, this was the case. A meaningful rebound of a few dollars came after 2 months and 3 weeks or after a time frame comfortably inside of this period. Using this historical behaviour and taking the current fall we are experiencing from late April’s 25.50 to qualify as stubborn and problematic, when we apply 2 months and 3 weeks from late April, we get a bottom being hit at about middle of July. So it suggests the low of 20.50 on 15 July was it. Yesterday’s low was 20.54. So it is possible that the worst for this plunge since April was over on 15 July at 20.50. A proper rebound is now due and should occur. Unless the recent rebound from 20.50 to 21.74 was it.

[alexandro]

If there is no more rebound until further falls, then get ready for further fall in Australian banks and financial crisis Australian version- the Australian Housing and Financial Crisis AHFC. WBC will go under 20 and into 19, then down to 17.50. The government of this country should be more delicate at this time and less experimental. They should already have skill and experience in good policy design and be qualified to become government before they are given the job of governing. Not learn these things during. They win the majority vote and they are qualified but really they are not.

[alexandro]

Naturally, you want to land safely if there is a problem mid-air. I think we would all want a talented more experienced pilot at the controls in the event of a problem over an average one, just to give us every chance of a soft landing and survival. The economy so far has been resilient and strong enough to brush off retarding effects of this government, but if tricky times are near, we need more talent and experience at the cockpit. If the steam is running out, having this government at the controls at this time would be two bad things at the same time.

I reckon I could pick a few boys and girls from my work place that can do better for about 90k each per year.

[nulla nulla]

Westpac had a lot of support arround the $20.50 level before falling to $20.40 just before close. Closing on $20.42 was a fairly good result, only marginaly down from yesterdays close as the u.s.a politicians continue to haggle while the world markets burn.

43769

If they don't sort it out this week end, I can't see them getting a result by Tuesday. If left unresolved, wbc with its' larger exposure to off-shore borrowing, will likely drop a lot more.

[alexandro]

Its now 3 months duration and 22% drop from the late April peak. A rally should come.

[nulla nulla]

Yeah, we keep telling ourselves that and the share price keeps creeping lower. Just like it did from November 2007 to March 2009. Then it rallied. Hopefully this is not the start of the double dip recession.

[nulla nulla]

Yeah, we keep telling ourselves that and the share price keeps creeping lower. Just like it did from November 2007 to March 2009. Then it rallied. Hopefully this is not the start of the double dip recession.

[nulla nulla]

Must be an echo :) .

[Julia]

Its now 3 months duration and 22% drop from the late April peak. A rally should come.
Should it? Why?

[alexandro]

Good to see Julia policing this site again and again. Checking for spelling, asking questions and holding people accountable for their comments.

I do alot of thinking and research before i do a post. It is based on prior WBC behaviour. You could see today for the first time in a while some buying strength when it fell under 20. Why wouldn't you buy under 20 when many bought at 23-24-25?

Something unexpected and favourable will make it bounce soon.

[skc]

Why wouldn't you buy under 20 when many bought at 23-24-25?

Something unexpected and favourable will make it bounce soon.

That is such fantastic logic.

Hang on... for every buyer there has to be a seller.

So why wouldn't you sell under 20 when many already sold at 23-24-25?

Something unexpected and favourable to the shorters will make it drop soon.

[tinhat]

Price $20.10
EPS $2.10 (forecast)
PE 9.95
Yield 7.46%
Yield grossed up for franking credits* ~ 10.6%

* Effective rate of return, after tax, for a super account in pension mode.

Let's assume zero EPS growth. Let's assume that return on equity stays at around the current 20% rate. Reasonable forecasts. At some point a > 10% effective dividend yield has to be a compelling argument even for a risk averse SMSF to buy shares in WBC rather than rolling over a term deposit.

[ajjack]

'Something unexpected and favorable will make it bounce soon' ... you say.

Hmmm ....... wonder what it could be, and I hope your right, but somehow
cannot see a sudden change in WBC direction.

Enough of the wishin' and hopin' in these threads and lets have some facts!

[nulla nulla]

Price $20.10
EPS $2.10 (forecast)
PE 9.95
Yield 7.46%
Yield grossed up for franking credits* ~ 10.6%

* Effective rate of return, after tax, for a super account in pension mode.

Let's assume zero EPS growth. Let's assume that return on equity stays at around the current 20% rate. Reasonable forecasts. At some point a > 10% effective dividend yield has to be a compelling argument even for a risk averse SMSF to buy shares in WBC rather than rolling over a term deposit.

It would appear that a section of the market agrees with your analysis. Westpac closed higher than it opened. Also, comparing wbc with the other three big aussie banks, wbc fell proportionaly less yesterday than the other three.

This point is interesting in that: WBC has more overseas borrowings than the other three; WBC is seen as having more exposure to the mortgage sector in NSW than the other three and; the market (and hedge funds) has been pushing wbc down further than the other three.

Yesterday wbc had a higher than normal turnover. Buyers appear to see wbc as the better bargain of the banks. At this point wbc has a low price earnings ratio, a good yield (dividend plus franking credits) and the long term prospects of a good capital gain when it returns to normal pricing levels.

As always, do your own research.

[Julia]

I do alot of thinking and research before i do a post. It is based on prior WBC behaviour. You could see today for the first time in a while some buying strength when it fell under 20. Why wouldn't you buy under 20 when many bought at 23-24-25?

Something unexpected and favourable will make it bounce soon.


That is such fantastic logic.

Hang on... for every buyer there has to be a seller.

So why wouldn't you sell under 20 when many already sold at 23-24-25?

Something unexpected and favourable to the shorters will make it drop soon.:D:D



Price $20.10
EPS $2.10 (forecast)
PE 9.95
Yield 7.46%
Yield grossed up for franking credits* ~ 10.6%

* Effective rate of return, after tax, for a super account in pension mode.

Let's assume zero EPS growth. Let's assume that return on equity stays at around the current 20% rate. Reasonable forecasts. At some point a > 10% effective dividend yield has to be a compelling argument even for a risk averse SMSF to buy shares in WBC rather than rolling over a term deposit.
This, plus nulla's post, is the sort of reasoning that's constructive and interesting, rather than some vague assertion that 'it has to go up'.

Tinhat, your suggestion here will be even more valid if interest rates start to drop, as is looking possible. But even then, it's (for me, anyway) difficult to accept the continuing diminution of capital if the downtrend continues as reasonable exchange for the very good yield.

How do you weigh up these essentially opposing considerations?


'Something unexpected and favorable will make it bounce soon' ... you say.

Hmmm ....... wonder what it could be, and I hope your right, but somehow
cannot see a sudden change in WBC direction.

Enough of the wishin' and hopin' in these threads and lets have some facts!
Thanks, aijack, that's the point I was trying to make.

[Vesupria]

More importantly is the current dividend sustainable? Otherwise this could turn into the classic "yield trap."

I am no expert, but would it take a GFC II or a housing market crash for the banks to cut their dividend?

[oldblue]

More importantly is the current dividend sustainable? Otherwise this could turn into the classic "yield trap."

I am no expert, but would it take a GFC II or a housing market crash for the banks to cut their dividend?

Most banks did reduce their dividends as a result of GFC but have grown them again since. Certainly, the same could happen again.

No guarantees of course but unlikely IMO to become yield traps in the usual sense, ie where earnings collapse more or less permanently.

[Vesupria]

The only other "risk" in such a yield play is that the dividend stays the same for an extended period of time and gets eaten away by inflation.

I am seriously considering growing my holdings in the banks at these levels though. But I will wait a few weeks to see what they do price wise. The charts point to an even higher yield / lower price at this point in time.

[UMike]

It would appear that a section of the market agrees with your analysis. Westpac closed higher than it opened. Also, comparing wbc with the other three big aussie banks, wbc fell proportionaly less yesterday than the other three.

This point is interesting in that: WBC has more overseas borrowings than the other three; WBC is seen as having more exposure to the mortgage sector in NSW than the other three and; the market (and hedge funds) has been pushing wbc down further than the other three.

Yesterday wbc had a higher than normal turnover. Buyers appear to see wbc as the better bargain of the banks. At this point wbc has a low price earnings ratio, a good yield (dividend plus franking credits) and the long term prospects of a good capital gain when it returns to normal pricing levels.

As always, do your own research.

Well I just got 1000 @19.75 .....

Hope there is good US jobs data.

[nulla nulla]

Well I just got 1000 @19.75 .....

Hope there is good US jobs data.

It is going to get cheaper today. Panic hit the djia, ftse and the dax last night and our xao will follow suite today. Finance shares such as wbc will likely drop another 2% plus. Hope I'm wrong.

[alexandro]

Should it? Why?

Finally a Japanese reversal candlestick and a bounce. I was 4 trading days late but it came. And at least I was one person who mentioned numbers like $20, $19 and then $17.50 in that order in previous recent posts. The unexpected and favourable? We'll it was the cut in interest rates where every man was talking rising rates. A QE3 is also on the cards now.

Julia, check spelling and make comments please. Or are you cranky again?

[nulla nulla]

Strong support on good volumes. Would like to see the share price start to recover from here. However, wbc is not out of the woods yet and more stability is needed in the international markets.

43922

Notwithstanding, wbc is incredibly good value at this level and it would take a massive increase in the cost of funding, combined with rising interest rates and massive mortgage defaults for wbc to lose it's way. IMO.

[Julia]

Notwithstanding, wbc is incredibly good value at this level and it would take a massive increase in the cost of funding, combined with rising interest rates and massive mortgage defaults for wbc to lose it's way. IMO.
Agree. Given the apparent likelihood of falling deposit rates on online at call accounts, I'm close to being persuaded back into WBC. Grossed up div is very good.

Nulla, what are your thoughts about CBA?

[nulla nulla]

Agree. Given the apparent likelihood of falling deposit rates on online at call accounts, I'm close to being persuaded back into WBC. Grossed up div is very good.

Nulla, what are your thoughts about CBA?

Hi Julia

I have thrown an update post in the CBA thread. If I had been cashed up yesterday I would have bought in the downward spike. :)

[fanger]

I picked this up the other day around $18.25 I couldn't resist the yeild at that price.

[nulla nulla]

I picked this up the other day around $18.25 I couldn't resist the yeild at that price.

Good on you. At todays high of $20.52 (roughly 12:30pm) you have a capital gain of $2.27 or 12.44%.

[kid hustlr]

I really like Julia's and nulla's thoughts. WBC does look inviting imo but I'm hesitant to dive head first given the current craziness of the markets. I'll most likely take the newbie wait and see approach and then re-assess in a month or so. If I miss the boat, so be it.

[Julia]

I really like Julia's and nulla's thoughts. WBC does look inviting imo but I'm hesitant to dive head first given the current craziness of the markets. I'll most likely take the newbie wait and see approach and then re-assess in a month or so. If I miss the boat, so be it.

Sensible approach. The market will always be there. And, given the global mess, this volatility will also be there for a while to come.

[rick62]

Sensible approach. The market will always be there. And, given the global mess, this volatility will also be there for a while to come.

Hi Julia

I agree -- although maybe there is a case for having a toe in the water rather than a foot out of it?

Basically it is a game... A relative phoned me today and said he might go back into race horses as a less risky alternative....

[nulla nulla]

Hi Julia

I agree -- although maybe there is a case for having a toe in the water rather than a foot out of it?

Basically it is a game... A relative phoned me today and said he might go back into race horses as a less risky alternative....

As an owner, trainer, jockey or punter?
As a punter you plunk your money down and either win or do the lot. As a share investor you get to pull your capital out with a small profit or a small loss. At least you don't do the lot. :)

[blue0810]

Share trade is a tough game. Like any other game you need to know how to play it.

[nulla nulla]

Nice bounce of the interday low off $17.84 on panic Tuesday. Started well today at $20.75 then drifted steadily down to the low of $20.31. Strong support in the closing auction saw the price recover a little to $20.47.

Banks generally did not do well today. Internationaly there were some big sell downs overnight and the aussie banks seemed to get caught up in it today. International Hedge funds are alleged to be shorting banks in anticipation of another credit squeeze.

The local Bank reporting season is underway and I expect wbc to post a larger profit than before probably with a low key forecast reflecting the tight conditions we are living in. Don't be surprised if the analysts say it is not good enough and start another sell down.

[oldblue]

The local Bank reporting season is underway

Not quite

CBA is the odd man out with a June balance date. The other three of the four pillars don't count the cash until 30 September and will report mid to late October.

WBC still a good punt though, IMO.

:cool:

[nulla nulla]

Not quite

CBA is the odd man out with a June balance date. The other three of the four pillars don't count the cash until 30 September and will report mid to late October.

WBC still a good punt though, IMO.

:cool:

lol. would you believe it is a long reporting season? :) :)

[nulla nulla]

Westpac is due to provide a quarterly update today. Should be interesting. :)

[blue0810]

Westpac is due to provide a quarterly update today. Should be interesting. :)

No good News -> WBC -4.00% so far.

[notting]

Maquarie thought it was on par.

[notting]

Good day of discounting today.
Might take a big bite in the morning if markets are soft tonight.

Amazing how the press have managed to flavor the current bounce as being positive expectations from the meeting between Sarkozy and Merkel.

Setting it all up for another thrashing.

What is anyone expecting from that meeting accept flimsy share holders thinking some miracle is about to occurr or not occur.

7 used to run the line "First we make the news, then we break the news."

Hay will be made.

[nulla nulla]

An overview of the report from Westpac by "Eric Johnston" in todays Sydney Morning Herald "Business Day" is worth a read at the following link.

http://www.smh.com.au/business/westpac-counts-profit-cuts-staff-20110816-1iwex.html

While their income is down for the last quarter (you would think it would be a given, having a slow down in income if people are cutting borrowing and increasing savings) their full year profit is on track for another record $6.54 billion, only $300 million less than their juggernaut rival the CBA.

Naturally, the market (including the friendly international hedge funds) pushed the price down ridiculous levels. Bloody funny if you ask me. WBC is on track to post a record $6.54 billion profit and the market is saying "That is less than expected" and sells the share price down toward March 2009 GFC levels.

And of course the fully franked dividend/yield just gets better and better.

[oldblue]

I don't think it's got much to do with WBC.

More a case of market nervousness and holders taking the opportunity to sell on what they hoped would be a relatively firm market following a good report, ie what the brokers call "profit taking".

:cool:

[kid hustlr]

A couple of heavy days and its not impossible for WBC to hit that $18.00 mark again.

Nulla, any changes of opinion given the recent profit announcements of Westpac on your long term view of this?

[alexandro]

Market is at a pivot point. Top big caps CBA, WBC and BHP have moved back up to the 20 day moving average from recent plunges and pullbacks. In the next 1-2 days, it’s either a strong move up (starting a rally) or the down trend resumes. It can be either at equal chance but owing to that huge reversal 2 weeks ago, the stance and posture on the charts look to the upside. I don’t see reason for the downtrend to continue at this time. The market has already gone through in the past 4 weeks and completed its shock for now. All in stages.

[nulla nulla]

A couple of heavy days and its not impossible for WBC to hit that $18.00 mark again.

Nulla, any changes of opinion given the recent profit announcements of Westpac on your long term view of this?

No change of opinion. IMO Market sentiment is trying to push wbc down below realistic values. All we can do about it is trade the opportunities when we see them and are cashed up.

[nulla nulla]

The share price trend suggests thay wbc is tapping the upper channel bar. If it can break above $21.00 and stay there it may start to improve to where it realisticaly (IMO) belongs, $22.50+.

44296

However the MACD suggests the price is gapping upward from the moving average. How long can wbc sustain this?

44297

The RSI suggest that wbc is moving into "oversold" territory. No doubt the "herd" that follows these indicators will start to bail out and push the share price back down making the charts self-fulfilling, or will they?

44298

As always. DYOR & goodluck. :) Maybe volumes are the key?

[nulla nulla]

Two weeks ago the market had to make a decision. Could wbc run up higher or was it due to retrace from the top of the downward channel. Well the market bailed and wbc tracked down to the bottom of the channel arriving there at close today.

44492

Now the market has to make another decision. Is it time for wbc to bounce or is it going to trend further down and breakout below the channel line?

You tell me. I thought wbc was good value at $21.50, even better at $20.50, amazing at $19.50 and will probably be incredible at $18.50, $17.50 and $16.50.