EURUSD....Euro

[MARKETWAVES]

The Euro has this pattern intraday that apears to be firming up.. and as I write this people in the trading world are watching the GDP report that is about to come out tomorrow, Friday 7-29-05..

WHY WATCH GDP? THE GDP REPORT DOESNT MATTER .......


It's all in the charts ..................


What are these charts saying ?

Does it have to break out... for people to be interested in this ?

Well, that's too bad...... What do I see? Look below........

SOME SERIOUS base bulilding is happening in the EURO....


TRADE AT YOUR OWN RISK… The purpose of these charts is to point out significant highs and lows based on Fibonacci Retracement lines and Elliott Waves which are highly subjective . This information is for educational purposes and should not be considered trading recommendations . All trading decisions are your own sole responsibility …


........

[excalibur]

Eurozone indicators show improvements

Friday, July 29 10:35:35


Both indicators of economic sentiment and business climate in the eurozone showed improvements in July, the European Commission said today.

The EC said its eurozone economic sentiment indicator for July rose to 97.3 from 96.3 in June.

The industrial confidence component of the indicator improved to minus 8 from minus 10, while consumer confidence was unchanged at minus 15. Economists had forecast minus 9 for the industrial confidence indicator and minus 15 for consumer confidence.

The services sector posted a rise to 11 from 9, and construction improved to minus 13 from minus 14, while the retail trade worsened to minus 10 from minus 9.

The commission said the rise in the overall economic sentiment indicator was due mainly to the easing of the euro, the stabilisation of oil prices, and the beginnings of an upturn in global growth.

Meanwhile, eurozone business climate indicator improved to minus 0.07 in July from minus 0.27 in June, the European Commission said.

The commission said the improvement was reflected in almost all the indicator's underlying components, particularly for production in recent months.

"Confidence among managers increased significantly also due to improved total order books and export order books," it said.

[RichKid]

Nice charts again MW, I tend to have more confidence in rounding bottoms than other turns, this one is not the perfect example but it's close enough- woe for the USD!!

[MARKETWAVES]

RICHKID.....

ITS NOT the rounding bottom that is of intrest ..... Its the multiple resistance lines that are highlighted in yellow... it has already pulled back 4 times an has created a neckline . The logic , is if prices start moving in that direction again ,,, can it be strong enough to break through .... the breaking of a resistance line is more important in a bullish set-up than what kind of bottom formation is being formed ....

[MARKETWAVES]

EURO ....

THE results are in ......

Serious Base Building that is paying off .....


It's all in the chats ... FORGET THE NEWS

[Kauri]

At an interesting stage.. EURUSD..

[theasxgorilla]

I don't track a wave-count on EUR/USD, but the last few weeks have suggested the following to me...

[Kauri]

I don't track a wave-count on EUR/USD, but the last few weeks have suggested the following to me...

Yes, thats how i see it too, am also looking at the larger picture, is this the 5 leg A?? Or maybe an extremely bukkish short ABC that has only retraced 23%?..

[wavepicker]

Yes, thats how i see it too, am also looking at the larger picture, is this the 5 leg A?? Or maybe an extremely bukkish short ABC that has only retraced 23%?..


Yeah Kauri, that's an interesting point.
Look at the weekly chart below of the EURUSD. Off the peak in Dec 2004 we appear to have 5 waves down followed by 5 waves up. Which is the impulse??? Answer: It can be either one, but it can't be both. If you view the internal wave subdivisions of what appears to be a 5 wave decline in 2005 in lower timeframes such as daily or 8Hr timeframe bars, then there is no way it counts as an impulse but rather a complex correction. The same can almost be said about the the leg up. It could be that both these legs are corrective.

This ambiguity came up in a conversation with Radge some weeks ago, with regard to what appeared to be a 5 wave structure in Gold. My point here is that you must never assume 5 waves, but rather to use as many means as possible to quantify your wave counts. Over the years I have seen patterns that appeared to be 5 waves against a larger trend. Because I assume 5 waves then there would have to be some follow through after an abc against those 5 waves. But what would happen instead was that the market would move in the opposite direction once those 5 waves where finished and not only fully retrace then but exceed the origin. So What appears to be 5 waves has to be quantified by other means or by price levels, fibonacci expansions/ratios or time factors or all of these, that may help validate/invaidate a probable scenario.

Cheers

[Naif]

i expect that eurusd is going to close above 1.3000 , it seems that the correction is over, the weekly bar should not close below 1.2890 , in the weekly chart i attached you can see that eur corrected to test the broken traingle , everything is not clear but as we have this weeks important data , the market already expected that the rate won`t be changed 5.25, and the unemployment rate will be the same but i expect that data of the changing in the nonfarm payrolls will be a little less than 148 k which its the number that was expected by the market. i see that eurusd is going north and i hope that the support 1.2890 - 1.2870 won`t be taken.
i attach the weekly chart and also the cot chart and there you can see that the commercials ( the dogs ) have increased their positions in long and so did the large traders and you can see the open intrest rised to 169 , i hope this two weeks eurusd break up 1.3000 so things will be more clear.

[Naif]

good mornin aussies
eurusd broke up the down trendline in the 4h chart.

eur is going to test 1.3050 level, where i gonna cash all my positions.
1.3185 is very important resistance , whenever eurusd reach it i will sell for 50 pips gain, i still see the eurusd is going north.

[Naif]

i expect that eurusd is going to close above 1.3000 , it seems that the correction is over, the weekly bar should not close below 1.2890 , in the weekly chart i attached you can see that eur corrected to test the broken traingle , everything is not clear but as we have this weeks important data , the market already expected that the rate won`t be changed 5.25, and the unemployment rate will be the same but i expect that data of the changing in the nonfarm payrolls will be a little less than 148 k which its the number that was expected by the market. i see that eurusd is going north and i hope that the support 1.2890 - 1.2870 won`t be taken.
i attach the weekly chart and also the cot chart and there you can see that the commercials ( the dogs ) have increased their positions in long and so did the large traders and you can see the open intrest rised to 169 , i hope this two weeks eurusd break up 1.3000 so things will be more clear.

the data is out of the change of the nonfarm payrolls and its less than expected only 111k , also the data of unemployment rate is rised to 4.6%

i have cashed all my positions and will be waiting for the next week

[Naif]

have a nice weekend everybody :)

[theasxgorilla]

Hi Naif,

Thanks! A great weekend to you too.

I'm really digging your posts on the USDEUR cross-rate. Keep going!
The ASX Gorilla.

[Naif]

back again before i go to bed

howdy the asx gorilla?
thx for ur post..

the eurusd is now 1.2951 and i think its a big game from wallstreet, they want to make market think that eurusd is going down so they can hit alot of stop losses and then they make new buy orders, well i already placed a new order to buy from 1.2947 + spread 3 pips 1.2950 ..
the stop loss is 1.2920, and the 1st target is 1.3150 ...

i just wanted to share you ppl my own analysis , i dont recommend anyone to buy or sell and i`m just telling you my orders so its up to you if you want to use it or not.


again ppl have a nice weekend

[Naif]

back again before i go to bed

howdy the asx gorilla?
thx for ur post..

the eurusd is now 1.2951 and i think its a big game from wallstreet, they want to make market think that eurusd is going down so they can hit alot of stop losses and then they make new buy orders, well i already placed a new order to buy from 1.2947 + spread 3 pips 1.2950 ..
the stop loss is 1.2920, and the 1st target is 1.3150 ...

i just wanted to share you ppl my own analysis , i dont recommend anyone to buy or sell and i`m just telling you my orders so its up to you if you want to use it or not.


again ppl have a nice weekend


the price didnt reach 1.2947 and the low was 1.2950..
the eurusd closed at 1.2960..

[Naif]

again with the cot charts

we see that the large spec has increased their positions while the commercial trdaers didnt increase, and the open intrest rised 174 ..
well .. i think it will be wise to buy eurusd, but we should watch 1.3185 levels , it will be very important

[Naif]

hello ppl ...
we are starting a new week and today we got important data.
we have a lot of data today and we should beware..
i think the market will focus today on the ism index data for us (jan)...

i bought eurusd 1.2945 and the stop loss 1.2920 , and the initial target 1.3000, then 1.3050 , and then 1.3100 , and the foruth target 1.3160 ..
i think its worth to risk with only 25 pips loss...

again , i just tell you people what i`m doing and i`m not suggesting to you any trades..

good luck

[wavepicker]

hello ppl ...
we are starting a new week and today we got important data.
we have a lot of data today and we should beware..
i think the market will focus today on the ism index data for us (jan)...

i bought eurusd 1.2945 and the stop loss 1.2920 , and the initial target 1.3000, then 1.3050 , and then 1.3100 , and the foruth target 1.3160 ..
i think its worth to risk with only 25 pips loss...

again , i just tell you people what i`m doing and i`m not suggesting to you any trades..

good luck

Hi Naif, agree with your comments. I am short the USDJPY for 1 week now but plan to close out trade in the next few days when this correction will end IMO. I think the EURUSD and GBPUSD have topped and the larger trend is down. We should be using the rallies to position for short positions

Cheers

[Naif]

Hi Naif, agree with your comments. I am short the USDJPY for 1 week now but plan to close out trade in the next few days when this correction will end IMO. I think the EURUSD and GBPUSD have topped and the larger trend is down. We should be using the rallies to position for short positions

Cheers
hello wavepicker, I do agree that its expected that eurusd is going down to 1.27 levels, but i expect that eurusd should go up to 1.3150 levels where the commercial will close their longs and start to short the eurusd for 1.27.
about the gbpusd i expect that soon the gbpusd will go 2.000 levels , because its said that the inflation in uk is growing so they will hike the intrest rates...

cheers

[Naif]

hello ppl ...
we are starting a new week and today we got important data.
we have a lot of data today and we should beware..
i think the market will focus today on the ism index data for us (jan)...

i bought eurusd 1.2945 and the stop loss 1.2920 , and the initial target 1.3000, then 1.3050 , and then 1.3100 , and the foruth target 1.3160 ..
i think its worth to risk with only 25 pips loss...

again , i just tell you people what i`m doing and i`m not suggesting to you any trades..

good luck
i moved my sl to 2915 .
the price now is 2922

i still expect that the eurusd will reverse... but this time i won`t change the sl, becuz if it reaches to 2915, that means its going to 2890 and this is a very strong support and many times tried to break it down but couldn`t, and i think that if 2915 was taken, then 2890 will be broke and will see eurusd nex week around 2750

lets watch..

good luck

[Naif]

i moved my sl to 2915 .
the price now is 2922

i still expect that the eurusd will reverse... but this time i won`t change the sl, becuz if it reaches to 2915, that means its going to 2890 and this is a very strong support and many times tried to break it down but couldn`t, and i think that if 2915 was taken, then 2890 will be broke and will see eurusd nex week around 2750

lets watch..

good luck


it hitted my sl with loss 30 pips

we`ll see if the eurusd will close today below 2915 level or will break 2890 after the ism data.

good luck

[theasxgorilla]

If it breaks 2890 one might expect to see it fall to 2830ish...which will coincide with the 200-day MA, a medium term up trend line and a 61.8% retracement of a previous significant range.

I really enjoy this thread Naif, keep going!

[Kauri]

The sloping support/resistance line is proving to be quite strong.. :(

[Naif]

technically, the eurusd is going to 1.2825, as you see from the flag which means that eurusd is going to break it down and we need a close below 1.2890 levels..
but fundamentally, i see that eurusd should go to 1.3120, then 1.3185

its a lil complicated

[theasxgorilla]

Well, if you apply EW guideline of alternation...then Wave 2 of the impulse move down was a 3 wave formation...Wave 4 (which we're currently in) could therefore be a 5 wave formation...which suggests that your up to 1.31x scenario is more likely...THEN the down to 1.2825.

Lets see :)

[Naif]

hey everyone..
why is this forum a sleep??

anyway , the rallies from 1.2912 to 1.3025 for eurusd with no corrections , i think its time now to correct to 1.2955 level, so it will be a bottom and the bulls will start there to push the eurusd to 1.3050 and break it up..

this 4h chart

[Naif]

what do you think?

[bvbfan]

Euro move foretold by the declining bond yields?
5 year (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$fvx&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71630163787)

10 year (http://stockcharts.com/h-sc/ui?s=$fvx&p=D&yr=1&mn=0&dy=0&id=p71630163787)

[theasxgorilla]

The sloping support/resistance line is proving to be quite strong.. :(

In your count the wave 4 overlaps wave 1. Are you strict about this in your counting, or do you convert to say line charts based on a daily close to try and filter out noise and price extremities.

The ASX Gorilla.

[Kauri]

In your count the wave 4 overlaps wave 1. Are you strict about this in your counting, or do you convert to say line charts based on a daily close to try and filter out noise and price extremities.

The ASX Gorilla.

Hi ASC G..
With shares I stick strictly to the overlapping rules, but with FX I allow an overlap so long as the closes don't overlap. Not very scientific I know, but I find that works best with the data I have.
Cheers
Kauri

[Naif]

eurusd broke up the downtrend line after Trichet speech, i will wait for 1.3010 level to buy with stop loss 35 pips, and the first target 1.3050, then 1.3120

good luck

[theasxgorilla]

eurusd broke up the downtrend line after Trichet speech, i will wait for 1.3010 level to buy with stop loss 35 pips, and the first target 1.3050, then 1.3120

good luck

Nice trade so far Naif. Well done.

[Naif]

the low is 2983 ..

i am still holding my longs and eurusd need to close above the downtrend lind to say that the direction is north.
moved my sl to 2960 and my targets are not changed

the chart

[Naif]

:cool: :cool: :cool:

[Naif]

eurusd still respect the broken trendline.. i can say that 80% we will see 1.31 next week

;) :cool:

[Naif]

after today close, i expect that eurusd will open next week above 1.3010 and maybe higher than 3010... we will have a good resistance around 3040 level and then 3120, and then the strog resistance 3180..

i`m sorry guys, i might not be able next week to analyze eurusd.

enjoy ur weekend guys

good luck

[Naif]

in short and hurry..

the data of the cot tell me that next week we will see a strong rise for the eurusd..

eurusd now is 1.3022

[Naif]

in short and hurry..

the data of the cot tell me that next week we will see a strong rise for the eurusd..

eurusd now is 1.3022

back again
missed this forum...
ok the last week was the high 3172..
now eurusd is 3182..
the 4h bar closed above 3173 which i think its important resistance, 1st it closed above the downline trend in the 4h bar, and closed above 61.8 fibonacci in the weekly chart from 1.3364 to 1.2865

we have now a good resistance which its 1.3215 level and it gonna face the upline trend for the ascending channel , and then the resistance 1.3275..

i will post soon with charts and analysing cot data

[Naif]

back again ..

in the 6`th of Feb 2007 the intrest rate rised from 174 to 182 and the commercial traders increased their positions from 34 to 51 and the bullish rised from 23% to 31% and the large speculators decreased their positions from 85 to 74 ...
then in the 13`th of feb , intrest rate rised to 187 , but the commercials decreased from 51 to only 26 so the bullish is 17% ..
but the large speculators increased their positions to 105 ..

well what i expect that the commercials want the eurusd go higher so they can close their positions and go short from new highs...

what gonna happen this week is that we will see rise for the eurusd and and the coming week will not be that clear and maybe we will not see a clear direction for eurusd but starting from march we will see a clear downtrend for eurusd to 1.3000 level 1st and then will see what gonna happen..

some ppl told me that its illegal to tell u my orders or where to go long or short...
anyway if its legal hope u gonna tell me

again i`m sorry if my explaining was bad cuz i`m really a bad teacher :)

again i wanna see that the purpose of my analysing is not to advice you people to buy or sell, its just i think that its a good way to learn the methods that i use to make my trades..

[Naif]

i see a great chance to gain 150 pips in eurousd..
a very good support in the daily plus a good support in the rsi 14 days
buy 1.3065 and stop 50 pips and the target 1.3205

best wishes

[theasxgorilla]

i see a great chance to gain 150 pips in eurousd..
a very good support in the daily plus a good support in the rsi 14 days
buy 1.3065 and stop 50 pips and the target 1.3205

best wishes

Naif, you're back.

I see what you describe and concur...long long long long :)

[Naif]

some ppl told me that its illegal to tell u my orders or where to go long or short...
anyway if its legal hope u gonna tell me..

still waitin for the answer :)

[theasxgorilla]

some ppl told me that its illegal to tell u my orders or where to go long or short...
anyway if its legal hope u gonna tell me


People are idiots...next thing you know they'll ban sugar.

[Naif]

Naif, you're back.

I see what you describe and concur...long long long long :)

how u doin man ?
do u agree with me technically or fundementally??
hope to see your opinion :)


as i have explained that i expect to see next week eurusd reach 3215 and i still think that we will see the eurusd fall to 3000 level.. anyway i still need the cot data for this week so i can see how the commercials are moving, i expect that they will increase just a few long positions.

good luck

[Naif]

what i meant that eurusd fall to 3000 is just after the expected raise , i expect to see eurusd 3215 and then maybe to 3275 and then start falling

[theasxgorilla]

do u agree with me technically or fundementally??


Both.

Do you expect to see 1.3000 AFTER 1.3215 or BEFORE?

I think it may hold up around 1.3065 as you say, or 1.3030, where a couple of 38.2% and 50% fibb retracements co-incide and a bit of historic support/resistance.

[Naif]

i expect to see 3000 after 3215 and maybe 3275

[Naif]

the low for last week was 3080 ..
and eurusd closed this week above 3164...
the next weeks will be really hard for the dollar and i expect to see the dollar fall against all currencies specially the eur, chf, and jpy..
but after the rise will see 3000 again, i`m sure we will see alot of people say that eursd is going to 3450 and maybe 3550 and alot will buy and make their stop loss below 1.3100 and i think thats what the commercals and large speculators want so they will reverse the market and alot of stop losses will be taken out..
from my experince .. as i have said in the last week we will not see 3000 before we see 3215 and 3275 levels , and after the close i belive that we will see 3275 levels for sure and it will be a very good chance to short..
last week my order was to buy from 3065 but the low was 3080 .. now my orders are to buy from 3015 , and then buy again from 3065 and my sl will be 3000 .. the targets 3205, and 3260 and i might buy from 3145 i`m still not sure about this point ...

alot of analysits say that the weekly close for the eurusd is negative because it didn`t close above 3173 and this point they think its important because its 61.8% fibonacci in the weekly chart from 1.3364 to 1.2865 and also its the downtrend line in the weekly chart...

but technical analysis is not everything thats what i have learnt from the past and you know the history repeat itself..

hope to hear ur opinions traders :)

[Naif]

the low for last week was 3080 ..
and eurusd closed this week above 3164...
the next weeks will be really hard for the dollar and i expect to see the dollar fall against all currencies specially the eur, chf, and jpy..
but after the rise will see 3000 again, i`m sure we will see alot of people say that eursd is going to 3450 and maybe 3550 and alot will buy and make their stop loss below 1.3100 and i think thats what the commercals and large speculators want so they will reverse the market and alot of stop losses will be taken out..
from my experince .. as i have said in the last week we will not see 3000 before we see 3215 and 3275 levels , and after the close i belive that we will see 3275 levels for sure and it will be a very good chance to short..
last week my order was to buy from 3065 but the low was 3080 .. now my orders are to buy from 3015 , and then buy again from 3065 and my sl will be 3000 .. the targets 3205, and 3260 and i might buy from 3145 i`m still not sure about this point ...

alot of analysits say that the weekly close for the eurusd is negative because it didn`t close above 3173 and this point they think its important because its 61.8% fibonacci in the weekly chart from 1.3364 to 1.2865 and also its the downtrend line in the weekly chart...

but technical analysis is not everything thats what i have learnt from the past and you know the history repeat itself..

hope to hear ur opinions traders :)


back again
this week untill now the high for eurusd is 3229 .. my orders to buy from 3145 , 3110, and 3065 but the price didn`t hit my orders and what i did the i bought from 3173 after the daily close above this important resistance..

moved my sl now to 3173 and cashed 1/2 of my positions and the 2`nd half will cash it from 3260.. and i will short from 3270 ..

this week when the new data for cot come out, i think that the speculators will decrease their long positions and the open intrest will be decreased..

lets see what gonna happen

cheers

[Naif]

back again.. the high was 3258 so it didnt hit my 2nd target @3260 and the 1h bar couldnt close above 3250 , so i cashed my 2nd 1/2 at 3240..

i`m still not sure but i think this is gonna be the high for this week, and eurusd should close above 3170 this week to see next week 3270 - 3295 which i expect to be the high of march and i will start to rally my shorts to 3000 levels.. of course there is a possibilities that eurusd go above 3300 but it should not go above 3330 .. and i will short from 3270 and will short again from 3320 if it reachs it... this week when the data of cot come out, i expect to see the large speculators to decrease their longs positions..

good luck everyone

[Naif]

changed my plan.
after the new data of the cot , i will wait to buy from bottoms maybe 3175 if its possible and the 1st target 3275 , 2nd target 3320 , and i will short from 3320 and will short again from 3365.. the open intrest rised to 202, and the large speculators increased their long positions from 105 to 117..

[Naif]

sorry guys, it seems just like if i were drunk... i saw the cot data and was shocked becuz the large specu`s increased but actually its not the new data because today is thursday but i dont know how did i see the date 02/27/07 .. :)
i hope that the moderator will delete it..

i`m sorry again just forget the last post, what i`m doin now is i have bought from 3200 and my target will be only 3265 , and will go short from 3270 , and again from 3320 , and again from 3365 but i expect that eurusd will fall from 3270 levels ..

sorry again.. and i`ll back soon

[Naif]

it seems that they want a weaker dollar...
large speculators ant the commercials increased their long positions, and the open intresr rised to 221......
now i can say long and only long...
the plan now is to buy bottoms and the 1st target 1.3285 2`nd target 1.3315 and watch the down trend line , any break will take eurusd to 1.3355

[Kauri]

L Plate E/W weekly :) I think I'll stand back and see what develops.

[Naif]

it seems that they want a weaker dollar...
large speculators ant the commercials increased their long positions, and the open intresr rised to 221......
now i can say long and only long...
the plan now is to buy bottoms and the 1st target 1.3285 2`nd target 1.3315 and watch the down trend line , any break will take eurusd to 1.3355

now i think its the best price to buy.. eurusd 1.3138...
eurusd has tested the broken down-trend line...

the rally will start from here to test the high of the last week 1.3258

good luck everyone

[Naif]

untill now eurusd didnt go below 1.3070 .. i have anouther order to buy from 1.3060 ... the target 1.3280

[money tree]

trendline support 1.29

thats where Im loading up for a run to 1.36

[Naif]

money tree..
i think that eurusd should not break down 3050 level..
the open intrest is still rising, the large speculators still increasing their long positions rapidly.. and thats why the eurusd couldn`t close below 3080 till now.. i think this level 3080 - 3050 is protected and supported.. and in this two weeks we will see 3280 - 3320 and maybe then 3360..

[Naif]

trendline support 1.29

thats where Im loading up for a run to 1.36

i attach the chart to let u see how i see the eurusd future in this week with the number of commercial long positions and why i think that eurusd should go up before fallin because the commercials want to close their positions....
the 1st target is 3189 level, and then 3250 levels..

what do u think?

[Naif]

eurusd hitted the target.. the high untill now 3184 .. and eurusd need a close for the 4h bar to continue climbing to 3250 level...

[Naif]

money tree..
i think that eurusd should not break down 3050 level..
the open intrest is still rising, the large speculators still increasing their long positions rapidly.. and thats why the eurusd couldn`t close below 3080 till now.. i think this level 3080 - 3050 is protected and supported.. and in this two weeks we will see 3280 - 3320 and maybe then 3360..

I went short eurusd 1.3310 and my sl at 3400 ... i will short again from 3360 if it reach it but i dont think so..

now money tree i can say and expect that eurusd will go down and break 3050 .. fundementally the usd willl get stronger and they will not decrease the intrest rate this year as it was expected because that data showed that inflation might rise ...
technically eurusd is very near from a strong resitance and there is a strong divergence in the daily chart for the momentum and macd..
the cot data showed that the commercials decreased 1/2 of their long positions and now they just wanna some stops to be taken out and then they take the price to 1.3000 level..

good luck everyone

[DonAqua]

I went short about 2 weeks ago at 1.3144

Despite the recent rise to above 1.33, I still think short to mid term we will see levels below 1.28 and even lower. In political and economic crises the dollar so far has always been profiting. And I don't think it will be different this time. Imagine a victory of the socialists in France- which is quite possible - and another war in the middle east - which is also very likely after Israels National Security Council advised that travellers should leave about 40 countries immediately ( see Bob Moriarty's artcile on www.321gold.com : http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/comment/20070311.html
-
Long term I believe the dollar is doomed, but for the forseeable future, I reckon with an unexpected raise of the dollar, which will surprise quite a few.
:coffee:

[Naif]

I went short about 2 weeks ago at 1.3144

Despite the recent rise to above 1.33, I still think short to mid term we will see levels below 1.28 and even lower. In political and economic crises the dollar so far has always been profiting. And I don't think it will be different this time. Imagine a victory of the socialists in France- which is quite possible - and another war in the middle east - which is also very likely after Israels National Security Council advised that travellers should leave about 40 countries immediately ( see Bob Moriarty's artcile on www.321gold.com : http://www.321gold.com/editorials/moriarty/comment/20070311.html
-
Long term I believe the dollar is doomed, but for the forseeable future, I reckon with an unexpected raise of the dollar, which will surprise quite a few.
:coffee:


i totally agree with you.. :) ..
bravo DonAqua

[Kauri]

Small bullish flag looks to be in the early stages, I won't be trading it though as my basic E/W indicates that a W v high is possible soon, also the 10 year high is very close.

[Kauri]

Small bullish flag looks to be in the early stages, I won't be trading it though as my basic E/W indicates that a W v high is possible soon, also the 10 year high is very close.

Now looking for a W 2....

[DonAqua]

I'll stick my head out ... :)
From now on the Dollar will raise against the Euro. It will reach pari as a minimum. How long that will take? Hmmm .. a few months, maybe a couple of months more. Let's see.

[DonAqua]

Pretty silent here. No one objecting that the dollar is raising? :coffee:

[Kauri]

Euro looks like a good place to turn up from W2 on the dailies but on the 4Hr charts where I dwell it looks a bit like my dogs breakfast!!!

[Kauri]

Euro looks like a good place to turn up from W2 on the dailies but on the 4Hr charts where I dwell it looks a bit like my dogs breakfast!!!

As it turned out the dogs breakfast would have been quite appetising. :mad: Missed out on the latest minor move as well as it didn't retrace far enough for me into the W2.. :mad: . Next time... maybe.. :)

[DonAqua]

Disregarding the technical aspect: The recent decline of the dollar was mainly due to Hedgefonds selling heaps of greenbacks. But also the fear of a US housing crisis is / was cooking, caused by comments from Standard & Poor. There's naturally also the strength of the intern European market versus the US market.

So what's next? 1.40 for the Euro before we really see a recovering of the Dollar?
A nice couple Euro/USD --> :alcohol:

[dutchie]

Anyone know where I can get a chart of AUS-EUR?

Where is best place to convert $aus to eur for travel purposes?

Cheers

Dutchie

[DonAqua]

Anyone know where I can get a chart of AUS-EUR?

Where is best place to convert $aus to eur for travel purposes?

Cheers

Dutchie

I use CMCMarkets for currency trading and their charts.

Free charts you can get from www.xe.com for example. XE has also a good currency conversion tool.

[dutchie]

DonAqua

Thanks for the info and link.

Cheers Dutchie

[rederob]

So what's next? 1.40 for the Euro before we really see a recovering of the Dollar?

Any greenback recovery will be short term.
Its decline against the euro has years to run.
The past week or two have shown the power of "debt".
The US is awash with debt.
Although I am not yet bearish on the DOW, that could soon change. It turns out that the web of debt continues to be spun, and may capture more and more who, cocooned in the apparent safety of their home, have mortgaged their rights away.

[DonAqua]

Any greenback recovery will be short term.
Its decline against the euro has years to run.
The past week or two have shown the power of "debt".
The US is awash with debt.
Although I am not yet bearish on the DOW, that could soon change. It turns out that the web of debt continues to be spun, and may capture more and more who, cocooned in the apparent safety of their home, have mortgaged their rights away.

The decline of the Dollar may take years, maybe ending in a sudden collapse. I don't know. I might be wrong. Short to mid-term however I reckon with a rise of the dollar. The empire may live longer than some might expect. Again, I might be wrong. It's not in the interest of China and other major dollar holders to hold an ever increasing amount of dollars with less and less value. The empire itself may try to stem the tide. The dollar is still the world reserve currency. It's decline will affect everyone. So what I think is, there will be political moves and politically inspired monetary moves to save the privilege, speak: power, of the dollar and thus that of the empire.

Interesting months / years ahead indeed.

Regarding the Euro: The official numbers are also manipulated by Governments in Europe as it is done in the US. The official inflation rate is low, but when checking the Euro money supply, it suggests that the real inflation rate is somewhere between 10 and 12 % . Hmmm .. what are the US figures?

Regarding debt of European countries: That's a huge figure too and an ever increasing number. Germany alone plans for 2007 with a need for 33 billion Euros "new" debt. Germany's debt raises currently 1056 Euros per second, every day, every week, every month... Tendency: raising! With all the debt and new debt, they still don't have enough. They are raising taxes, too. 12097

Governments are to a large part incompetent.

What we may see is a race on devaluation of currencies all over the world. One day the whole thing will break. But till then, a lot of things can happen.

Have some gold and silver in case the hell brakes loose someday.

Germany's running debt clock, you may find here :
http://www.miprox.de/index.html

12096

[Kauri]

All the planets haven't quite lined up yet, but am looking at a possible short...
Cheers
.....Kauri

[professor_frink]

Hi Kauri,

Euro is setting up for a potential swing trade to the shortside for me too- We have a nice looking harmonic pattern on the hourly. Will now be dropping the timeframe down and start looking for a decent lower high to get short from:)

[Kauri]

Hi Kauri,

Euro is setting up for a potential swing trade to the shortside for me too- We have a nice looking harmonic pattern on the hourly. Will now be dropping the timeframe down and start looking for a decent lower high to get short from:)

Hi Prof,
Looks like the planets may be lining up... now for a swing low to set up on...
Cheers
.......Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

I think I have tempted fate on this one but hey u only live once!

trend on the euro looks very decent to me a nice big continuation pattern in the works that may break out with out another touch of the trend line or it may touch.

i have taken long two mini's on it, I am speculating with the strengh in gold and it usd/jpy that the euro/usd may break out of this range and push higher the next test if it dose is where it makes it's next higher low(if it does) entry at 13654

good trading

[>Apocalypto<]

I think I have tempted fate on this one but hey u only live once!

trend on the euro looks very decent to me a nice big continuation pattern in the works that may break out with out another touch of the trend line or it may touch.

i have taken long two mini's on it, I am speculating with the strengh in gold and it usd/jpy that the euro/usd may break out of this range and push higher the next test if it dose is where it makes it's next higher low(if it does) entry at 13654

good trading

A lot of pain last night! after the FED treasurer made his comments, It broke out hard in my favor and came back down twice as fast! Opened new longs when it looked to have bottomed but it slipped again after I went to sleep!

Lots of paper profits made and lost with a little interest!

[Kauri]

Looking for a swing-low for a possible quick short down into a minor W2.
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Looking for a swing-low for a possible quick short down into a minor W2.
Cheers
..........Kauri

Well we got our swing-low... now to see if she goes on with it from here...
Cheers
..........Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

Well we got our swing-low... now to see if she goes on with it from here...
Cheers
..........Kauri

Hi Kauri,

did u get in on it?

I was stopped on a long mid afternoon. but early this evening when i saw the new 4 hour bar as a green one convinced me to have another shot. Took profits now was fast and sweet!

[Naif]

eurusd now is 1.3881 and the high till now is 1.3929 ....
eurusd is getting ready for a new rally to 1.4000 and all the market is expecting that fed will cut intrest rates .25 or .50...
long is a good idea from support.. right now i am waiting to buy from 1.3860 and the stop loss is 25pips only ...
i usually trade with stop loss and always try to make my ratio 1:3

[Naif]

eurusd now is 1.3881 and the high till now is 1.3929 ....
eurusd is getting ready for a new rally to 1.4000 and all the market is expecting that fed will cut intrest rates .25 or .50...
long is a good idea from support.. right now i am waiting to buy from 1.3860 and the stop loss is 25pips only ...
i usually trade with stop loss and always try to make my ratio 1:3

i have cancelled the order, as we see in the hourly chart, a new decsending channel and i think its going to test 1.3770

[>Apocalypto<]

i have cancelled the order, as we see in the hourly chart, a new decsending channel and i think its going to test 1.3770

Naif,

I am also waiting on the EURO and AUD/USD

They are in standard retraces in my opinion. I still think there is another break out on the cards as long as the current situation continues.

Some big data coming out tonight as well.

[x2rider]

Hi folks
I am also trading the euro at the moment and seems to have found a bit of support at 1.364. I have just added to my position with the lookout for a double top tonight with the chance for a quick short.
I have been building the position for a while so this latest pull back is nothing to get to alarmed about just a good place to buy a little more. :)
I don't think 1.40 will be a stop for it either. I have a target of 1.42.

Cheers martin

[Naif]

Naif,

I am also waiting on the EURO and AUD/USD

They are in standard retraces in my opinion. I still think there is another break out on the cards as long as the current situation continues.

Some big data coming out tonight as well.

Hi Trade_it ,

about the aud/usd i prefer to watch it now, cuz i think the picture is still not clear for me if its going up or down..
the trend of EURUSD is up and because the market expected that the fed will cut the intrest rates .50 or .25 the eurusd this week records new high and in my opinion today the eurusd will break down 1.3860 and go to test 1.3773 before it continues, eurusd must correct before the rally to 1.3990..
and its expected that todays usa data will improve..
check this report
http://www.dailyfx.com/story/dailyfx_reports/daily_fundamentals/US_Dollar_Hits_Fresh_Record_1189716594948.html

good luck

[Naif]

Hi folks
I am also trading the euro at the moment and seems to have found a bit of support at 1.364. I have just added to my position with the lookout for a double top tonight with the chance for a quick short.
I have been building the position for a while so this latest pull back is nothing to get to alarmed about just a good place to buy a little more. :)
I don't think 1.40 will be a stop for it either. I have a target of 1.42.

Cheers martin

hi x2ruder..
i do agree with u that the trend is up.. but u said that eurusd found a bit of support at 1.364 , do u mean 1.3864? because the stops right now are below 1.3860 and the break of this support means that eurusd is going to test 1.3773 before it continiues .. but if you mean 1.3640 , then i would say that 1.3678 is very important support and the break of this support means that the trend for the short term will be down...

cheers

[Naif]

Belgian FinMin said that Strong Euro Hurts Exports ,
is that a signal that today eurusd will break down 1.3860 ?? if the usa data improves then that wud help alot...

lets see

[Naif]

and EuroGroup"s Junker said I Was More Concerned About Weak Euro ...

[x2rider]

hi Naif
Smaller time periods I think . I am looking a bit more short term at the moment and did mean 1.3864. It has bounced from this point a few times in the last couple of days and still looks to be climbing from this support again .

I have different types of trades going on the same currency some longer term and some just short . But as long as we are all making some money then it's all good

Cheers martin

[Kauri]

And just to be completely contrarian I am looking for an opportunity to go short... :o

Cheers
..........Kauri

[DonAqua]

And just to be completely contrarian I am looking for an opportunity to go short... :o

Cheers
..........Kauri

Me, too. Contrarian, I mean. Some analyst say Euro will go to 1.45 within a few weeks. For me, there's too much pessimism with the Dollar for the moment with all type of folks. If it would be the stockmarket, then that would normally be an indication for a turnaround coming soon. But who knows.

[Kauri]

Me, too. Contrarian, I mean. Some analyst say Euro will go to 1.45 within a few weeks. For me, there's too much pessimism with the Dollar for the moment with all type of folks. If it would be the stockmarket, then that would normally be an indication for a turnaround coming soon. But who knows.

Hi Don,
Not sure if my W4 has yet to complete but am starting to get that bullish feeling again.. :)
Cheers
..........Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi Don,
Not sure if my W4 has yet to complete but am starting to get that bullish feeling again.. :)
Cheers
..........Kauri

Hi Kauri,

agree about the bullish feeling on this pair

I Have taken a long on the eur/usd. seeing the latest minor move starting that is breaching the downward resistance.

I have a feeling it may pullback a little i have the fib points in, on a higher low being made around those levels i will look to add to this trade.

see chart

[Kauri]

Hi Don,
Not sure if my W4 has yet to complete but am starting to get that bullish feeling again.. :)
Cheers
..........Kauri

Am in looking for a fifth wave.. I'll see what the U.S does to the pair tonight..
Cheers
..........Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

interesting pattern on the euro/usd

i am seeing a bullish set up here strong break up off a trend line now forming a band. looking for another test of support or a small position on a break out.

notice the support line that became resistance and has now become support.

aud also showing signs of further higher prices. euro is my pick as it's charging up in this range.

[>Apocalypto<]

interesting pattern on the euro/usd

i am seeing a bullish set up here strong break up off a trend line now forming a band. looking for another test of support or a small position on a break out.

notice the support line that became resistance and has now become support.

aud also showing signs of further higher prices. euro is my pick as it's charging up in this range.

broke out i am long on the eur/usd from lunch time today.

[Kauri]

Have taken a small bite of the Euro.. int 3rd of the 5th??
Cheers
..........Kauri

[soso]

My view on Euro daily, IF the trend is still up into November 4th (time cycle termination point) then we might put up a high into that day and a bigger correction could follow.

[wavepicker]

My view on Euro daily, IF the trend is still up into November 4th (time cycle termination point) then we might put up a high into that day and a bigger correction could follow.


tend to agree with your cycle point soso :-)

[Kauri]

With the Skippy and Euro consolidating at the moment I might slip down to the river and wet a line for an hour or two.. :fish:
Cheers
........Kauri


October 29. Although not doing a whole lot now after the break above 1.4400 early this morning, EUR/USD looks poised to trade higher with dealers noting stops just above the early high of 1.4426 at 1.4430. Option barriers are tipped just above at 1.4440 and larger at 1.4450. Asia does not look to be in any mood to extend moves to the topside but London could see EUR/USD spurt higher should these levels be pierced. In the meantime, headwind will continue to be seen on defense of these upside barriers and on profit-takes from some longs. EUR/USD is currently indicated at 1.4410/11.

[Kauri]

If the Euro is going to back off for a whiles I guess the 1.62 mark would be as good a spot as any??
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Also took off my ST Euro last night... will be watching for a run into a minor 5th..
Cheers
...........Kauri

[reece55]

All right, I think finally it is time to start to think the Euro will correct from here....

I have taken a short with a stop loss of 144.60, MT down with a cessation of a wave 5. If we can get below the current trend line at about 1.435~ I would look to add to the position. Kauri, interesting note from WSJ regarding interest rates and I do think economically that makes sense - as for what Bernake will actually do - beats me!!!!!!

Cheers
Reece

[Kauri]

All right, I think finally it is time to start to think the Euro will correct from here....

I have taken a short with a stop loss of 144.60, MT down with a cessation of a wave 5. If we can get below the current trend line at about 1.435~ I would look to add to the position. Kauri, interesting note from WSJ regarding interest rates and I do think economically that makes sense - as for what Bernake will actually do - beats me!!!!!!

Cheers
Reece

Hi Reece,
Too many rumours floating around for me at the moment.. will wait for the CSI (and no doubt another raft of rumours)tonight and see where I go from there.
Good trading with the short.
Cheers
...........Kauri


London, October 30. The late Asian dip found real money, Asian interbank and other assorted buyers amid the move lower but it was not until rumors of Chinese buying surfaced that the lows were forced. Into early Europe and spot has bounced off 1.4375 to run back towards 1.4400 as this sovereign demand is discussed. Offers into the figure look to curb the initial rebound but should the price manage to take out 1.4410 then look for a retest of the all-time highs at 1.4439.
The latest Greg Ip article in the WSJ calls into question the current Fed ethos but the bulk of the market is still positioned for a 25bp rate cut from the FOMC this week. Should a deeper reduction be considered then the Dollar will be hurt further but in the short-term bulls still look to the option barriers and structures into 1.4450.

[Kauri]

Mods.. is it possible to re-name this thread to just Euro.. a bit misleading as it is...Thanks. :)

A lot of bull around the Euro at the moment...

Cheers
..........Kauri


The EUR/USD opened in Asia around 1.4440 after the EUR/USD made a fresh all-time high at 1.4441 despite the "hawkish" WSJ/Greg IP article, lower oil prices and weaker Wall Street. The EUR/USD made another fresh all-time high at 1.4442 as soon as Asia opened and then spent the next six hours grinding between 1.4430/40. The EUR/USD pushed higher again in the afternoon amid talk of potential Asian central bank buying after a number of Asian central banks intervened heavily in their respective currencies and accumulated US dollars they don"t need. The EUR/USD traded up to 1.4448 before option related selling ahead of a 1.4450 barrier capped and kept stops above that level safe for the time being. The EUR/USD drifted back to 1.4440 after the 1.4450 failed to give way and stayed there for the balance of the session.
Proof that sentiment towards the EUR/USD is red-hot bullish was very evident yesterday when the EUR/USD plumbed new highs despite some uncertainty over the FOMC outcome created by the Ip article. Analysts feel that only a Fed no-change decision would deter the market from pushing the EUR/USD ever higher.

[professor_frink]

That do you kauri?

This better put me in the good books with your budgie:)

[Kauri]

That do you kauri?

This better put me in the good books with your budgie:)

Thanks Prof...
I'm trying to get back in his good books, doesn't trust me at the moment for some reason... :)
Cheers
.........Kauri

[DonAqua]

My view on Euro daily, IF the trend is still up into November 4th (time cycle termination point) then we might put up a high into that day and a bigger correction could follow.

Hi Soso, how do you get to the 4th November as a culmination point ? I am not a technical chart expert. Maybe you can elaborate a bit, why you see the 4th November as a termination point. Thanks.

So it's early next week ( sunday / monday ), only a few days to count. We shall see.. :coffee:

[soso]

Hi Soso, how do you get to the 4th November as a culmination point ? I am not a technical chart expert. Maybe you can elaborate a bit, why you see the 4th November as a termination point. Thanks.

So it's early next week ( sunday / monday ), only a few days to count. We shall see.. :coffee:

Hi DonAqua,

November 4th is a vibration in time according to my analysis which is based on Gann's teachings. It doesn't mean that it will be a high that day, it simply means that on that day there is a probability that the trend that went into that day will be reversed. Of course this is not enough to trade it by itself and complementary analysis of price should be added.

On a side note, USDJPY also has an important vibration on November 4th. Cable on November 2nd and November 15th.

Cheers,
-soso

[reece55]

USD so far is making a nice come back after last nights record high due to the interest rate change......

At one stage, I was more than 80 pips down, but still have the trade open with a neutral position ATM..... Cautiously optimistic of a turning point here with the Euro being liquidated heavily across most of the majors....

Cheers

[reece55]

USD so far is making a nice come back after last nights record high due to the interest rate change......

At one stage, I was more than 80 pips down, but still have the trade open with a neutral position ATM..... Cautiously optimistic of a turning point here with the Euro being liquidated heavily across most of the majors....

Cheers

OK, well after all my bravado, I ended up netting this one off square after making a few pips off the Yen pairs last night.......

With hindsight, it was a sensible thing (now rallying at least 60 pips back up again), wasn't game enough to hold pre Non Farm Payrolls.... I still believe we will see a snap back, just not willing to incur the margin costs....

Cheers

[Kauri]

OK, well after all my bravado, I ended up netting this one off square after making a few pips off the Yen pairs last night.......

With hindsight, it was a sensible thing (now rallying at least 60 pips back up again), wasn't game enough to hold pre Non Farm Payrolls.... I still believe we will see a snap back, just not willing to incur the margin costs....

Cheers

Hi Reece,
Some chatter that the September NFP is in for a nasty revision down may be helping the crosses currently.. but until the figures come out in a couple of hours it's only talk... :confused:
Cheers
........Kauri

[Edwood]

long term euro-USD, monthly view - something not quite right with this tho....

http://img529.imageshack.us/img529/3289/eurusd011107tl1.gif

[reece55]

Non farm payrolls - huge positive move here for the USD, slamming the door shut on any potential rate cut in Dec.....

Pair result - EUR rallies to new high..... Hrmmmmm...... ?????? Am I missing something......

100 pip range in 10 mins so far, lets see where we go from here.......

Cheers

[Kauri]

Non farm payrolls - huge positive move here for the USD, slamming the door shut on any potential rate cut in Dec.....

Pair result - EUR rallies to new high..... Hrmmmmm...... ?????? Am I missing something......

100 pip range in 10 mins so far, lets see where we go from here.......

Cheers

Reece...
Just picked this up.. :)
Cheers
...........Kauri


Nov. 2. Positive US data only attracted fresh USD sellers which again raises the speculation that a central bank or banks is diversifying so aggressively that a shift in a current basket or move to a currency basket from a current USD peg is increasingly likely. EUR/USD surged to fresh highs of 1.4525 on the US data, dragging EUR/JPY through 166.50 and triggering stops. The cross spiked to highs around 166.75/80 and currently trades at 166.71 with the next resistance level at 167.25 and the high from October 31st. Cross demand may face some headwind from the credit market concerns with the attention now on the stock markets. Merrill Lynch is now down 3.4% in pre-open trading which is going to help weigh on stocks today.

[reece55]

Reece...
Just picked this up.. :)
Cheers
...........Kauri

Thanks Kauri, interesting developments.......

That extreme overbought spike up to 1.452 looks like stops that were triggered for sure, it was such a violent spike up........

Bears are a foot for the USD....

Cheers

[ithatheekret]

Everything I see is pointing to the 147's test ......... I wonder if we are in an upswing headed for the 1.50 range , that'd melt some cheese ......

the DXY nudged up hard against 76.058/9 , I don't think the index has ever been that low before ....... and the ISM along with non farm payrolls came in better than expected , but the souring has continued .

Have traders become happified enough to comfortably sell the mighty greenback ?

I believe 147.8 is the hurdle ...... and we must consider that the ECB are still inflation hawks , whilst the Fed has slashed 75 basis points recently . Put's a new light on all the previous resistance levels just under 1.46 ,

[DonAqua]

Hi DonAqua,

November 4th is a vibration in time according to my analysis which is based on Gann's teachings. It doesn't mean that it will be a high that day, it simply means that on that day there is a probability that the trend that went into that day will be reversed. Of course this is not enough to trade it by itself and complementary analysis of price should be added.

On a side note, USDJPY also has an important vibration on November 4th. Cable on November 2nd and November 15th.

Cheers,
-soso

Hi SoSo

it looks that that vibration in time on 4th November had not much impact in changing the direction of the USD or EUR. What would be then the next possible turning point in time?

Re.. Gann. I don't think I've ever heard of his teachings. Is there any good source on the internet to find more information about his teachings?

I also check from time to time http://www.mahendraprophecy.com/
Mahendra tells since quite a while that the end of the party is near and the USD will raise against all currencies. One of his statements recently:

>> At this stage I can only do one thing, and that is to give a deadline to the end of the dollar's fall and that will be till the 19 of November. I could
have been wrong about the dollar, but no power on earth can pull it down
after that day. As a matter of fact the dollar could turn around from late
Monday and will trade very stable. After Fed meeting dollar will show
positive sign but in worst case the 19 will be the final day for its turn
around. If that fails to happen, then one can say that astrology and
planetary movements are fake. <<


Strong words. Let's wait and see. Cup of tea ?

[x2rider]

holy smoke what a stellar rise

was finding it hard to even get onto

Cheers martin

[reece55]

holy smoke what a stellar rise

was finding it hard to even get onto

Cheers martin

Manged to scalp myself 40 pips in my lunch break..... HAHAHA..... Love Fibonacci with these breakouts, up 100 pips, retraced almost exactly to 50, then back up to 80........

Wow though, wouldn't have wanted to hold a position intra day, because it looks like all of sudden the market moved dramatically. This is why I enter a predetermined stop on each trade - still, the gap in each minute was about 20 - 30 pips, so there would be some slippage.....

Boy am I glad I cashed out my short all the way back at about 1.45, we are another 150 pips up.... I still firmly believe that there will be a snapback, there are just way too many USD bears ATM.....

Cheers

[numbercruncher]

there are just way too many USD bears ATM.....

Cheers


Including many Chinese officals calling for diversification for some of its 1.4t USD reserves. :eek:

[Kauri]

Although the Chinese official calling for moving out of $US and into the Euro now back-pedalling on that (it was never likely that they dump $US en masse :) ), the fact is that China and several other Central Banks have been and will continue to gently buy into the Euro, my strategy has been and will still be to buy into the Euro against the dollar on dips/retraces.... until I change my strategy that is.. :D
Cheers
..........Kauri

[x2rider]

I have also been buying on the dips . The lng term prospects as still good for the euro . I think anymore weakness in the USD will have to have some officials rethining the holding of USD's .

I am pretty much outside my comfort zone at the moment on the euro and have been selling into some of the rises to keep my position manageable .

But with the price of oil going higher the Looney is still a good stand by money earner.

Cheers martin

[Kauri]

Says the man who just spiked the Euro 100 points?? :D
Cheers
.........Kauri



November 7. Over DowJones. More comments from the Buba official in Beijing. He adds that excessive volatility in the FX market should be avoided.

[x2rider]

I wonder if I came out and said that I am getting out of USD 's would I be able to get a reaction like that
They could always be selling the us at the moment and looking to turn a profit?

[soso]

Hi SoSo

it looks that that vibration in time on 4th November had not much impact in changing the direction of the USD or EUR. What would be then the next possible turning point in time?

Re.. Gann. I don't think I've ever heard of his teachings. Is there any good source on the internet to find more information about his teachings?


Other than halting the rise for one day indeed it didn't have any impact. In my view it failed. On Cable was similar, well at least Cable needed 3 days to push through the high established on 2nd Nov (vibration day for Cable). The important point is that we deal with probabilities, as with anything in the markets. Trying to buck a trend is not a good strategy regardless the tools one uses imo.

Next date is 14/15 Nov for Cable, Euro and Aud.
And 13 Nov for USDJPY. I would really watch this one, JPY is the best dancer of all pairs through these timepoints. ;)

On Gann, well just do a google search for WD Gann there's plenty of info around, unfortunately there's also a lot of snakes trying to sell "trading courses" or "secret teachings" based on WD Gann. So beware.

[ithatheekret]

Everything I see is pointing to the 147's test ......... I wonder if we are in an upswing headed for the 1.50 range , that'd melt some cheese ......

the DXY nudged up hard against 76.058/9 , I don't think the index has ever been that low before ....... and the ISM along with non farm payrolls came in better than expected , but the souring has continued .

Have traders become happified enough to comfortably sell the mighty greenback ?

I believe 147.8 is the hurdle ...... and we must consider that the ECB are still inflation hawks , whilst the Fed has slashed 75 basis points recently . Put's a new light on all the previous resistance levels just under 1.46 ,


We have that 147's test going on right now , pullbacks into the high 146's could be nice pickup points ,keeps nudging past 146.9-147.2 highest so far this session I've seen is 147.33 . Good scalping material so far ...........

Of course comments out of China today , pointing to them diversifying into other swaps , such as the EUR/USD , has helped the rally start , clarification also helped it pullback ...... but ....... it still looks set up to continue , as it held 146 . with the market probably already factoring in the ECB will pause on rates this time round . The otherside of the equation would see the hopes of another cut by the Fed as fairytale stuff , and in my books definitely not on the cards .

[Kauri]

An interesting place,in time and price, to stumble... :)
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Poker]

Just how low can the USD go? haha

[Edwood]

might be time to start looking for a turn - but waiting for confirmation before entering

http://www.stocktiming.com/Wednesday-DailyMarketUpdate.htm

[ithatheekret]

In long @ 146.32 & 146.40 best seen so far is 147.04

[Kauri]

More rumours/fact??
Cheers
.........Kauri



November 09: The EUR/USD has traded to a fresh all-time high at 1.4739 after Bloomberg reported that S&P said that a CDO managed by State Street began liquidating its assets, prompting S&P to slash investment vehicle"s ratings as much as 18 levels. The news reinforces concerns that forced asset sales by SIVs will lead to more heavy writedowns by major financial institutions.
There is talk of a 1.4750 option barrier and large stops above that might become a target if the price action continues. The EUR/USD trades 1.4725/30.

[Kauri]

More rumours/fact??
Cheers
.........Kauri

Re last post.. May actually support the USD as any forced liquidation at bargain prices may lead to more US financial related write-downs, taking the Dow down???
Cheers
.........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

I'm starting to think the Fed is going to go into fairytale territory mode .

The last swathe of data out of the US was dismal , pointing to a real slowdown over there , that would mean rate cuts ........ again .

In the meantime we see European manufacturing still moving along , with a currency that has closed in on an 80% rise to battle with .

The BoE look like they might have to cut too .

[ithatheekret]

Strewth , it looks like we're on again .

[ithatheekret]

147.04 dip .......... looking to see if the 147.10 area turns into support instead of resistance . Trailing stops attached .

[ithatheekret]

Stopped out just above my entry , and can't recall a time when I have had to readjust the trailing stop so many times . Have an order waiting in the wings . The US futures look rather negative for next week already and instead of running on the fundamentals , the Euro seems to be riding the bad news out of the US , this looks to be the catalyst to the volatility to me .

That being the case in would be prudent to also adjust my risk-aversion , having seen the all time high of 147.30 :D , then the Jean Claude T. dummy spit , I have no doubt a 150.00 Euro will be seen very soon . Given the climate they have had to operate under , I now have a new appreciation of European business management and I know where I'd be looking for CEO's etc.

[ithatheekret]

The high @147.30/31 has corrected but it looks as though it's a 5th wave set up ......

any comments ?

noting correction has not achieved the 144 area in the last sell off :cool:

[ithatheekret]

The strength in the Yen across the swaps , had my main focus yesterday .


Today I'm having a go at the Euro against the USD , just to get the feel of the road . I think this is the beginning of a fifth wave and expect a good rise .

Tight stops , crossed fingers and no cursing :D


oh yeah ...145.421 for a late start .

[ithatheekret]

Oh , wow .... a rally moment .

[ithatheekret]

After amassing positions , they all suddenly hit the limits from 146092-146099

volatility everywhere .

[ithatheekret]

!47's then back down , up again , back down , up again ...... yep the markets awake on this one too . Feel like Bronco Billy today :D

[soso]

This is what I currently see from a EW point of view. I would like to see a False Break of the current top before reversing and that would be the final point of both 5 Waves.

Also, today we have a vibration in time.

[ithatheekret]

Thanks for the analysis soso , the Euro is currently climbing the 147 wall of worry now

PS... the 42 pip in my post should be 52 :eek7:

[Kauri]

Seems to be at a possibly interesting juncture... or something like that...
Cheers
..........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

I reckon your right there Kauri , very interesting juncture .

Nudged into the 147's nicely to take out the most recent high @ 147.25 from last Wednesday , Thursday it retreated 20 pips from there to 147.05 . But given we were in the backend of trading when the spike into 147.5 occurred , I want to see if it can hold this area , more so , above 147.25 first . Previous action to the lead up of close had it being thumped around 146.7-146.8 , if it retreats below that area in the opening , then my radar will be primed to see if it can hold that area . If not , hmmm , could be parachute stuff with 146.10/20 first on the rank , with a plausible possibility of 145 if 146.10 gets lost in the plot . So fingers crossed for some support @ 147.25 or even 146.9 , above that heavy selling area @ 146.7/80

But I keep seeing Novembers low glaring at me from the chart and two cents is nothing in the market nowdays .............

[ithatheekret]

Bit the bullet and went short on the Euro , could get burnt though S.H.'s .

Also short the AUD/JPY , hoping for two steps forward and four steps back ;)and short the EUR/JPY , AUS/USD is threatening 89.14 , so I might just short that too , make that will with a tight stop ...... no have now . Oh and i took one of those high risk positions and short the USD/ JPY cross , don't normally touch it too often nowdays , the volatility there gives me sphincter reactions . Last short so far and a gutsy one , I'm short the pound , with the 204.'s in mind as I can see bugger all real support under that until the 2.02's .

Could get stopped out of any of these today , but have raked it in after last week so the risk / reward is out of pure profits . The last EUR/JPY reversal into the 162's was manna from heaven ..... and I had one of my pivots wrong too and it still worked ...... go figure huh ...

[Kauri]

Hi ithat..
May be a quiet sideways market with the big Thanksgiving.... possibly a bit of ranging????
Am long the NZDJPY... but as I have to be away this morning will leave the rest be until I get back after lunchtime..
All the best with your trades
Cheers
.........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

Well they have gone backwards , bar my Cable entry so it got folded , no patience to play against that one .

162.9 down to 162.02 and 162.018 EUR/JPY

146.693 & 146.847 down to 146.596 EUR/USD

89.774 & 89.913 & 89.793 down to 89.484 AUD/USD

99.587 & 99.620 down to 98.917 AUD/JPY

:D 111.044 / 046/048 upto to 110.579 USD/JPY


out until tonight for now .............

[ithatheekret]

SMS alarms had everyone looking at me in Coles , real good look ............ but I got home in time to short the Euro , nothing much between 146.10 and 145.20 ......... except air :p:

Gotta have a go at it . ;)

better have a squizzy at Cable too should it desire to head south :p:

[ithatheekret]

146.375 , we have enough for brown champagne so far ................

someone hang a sixpack of Stellas around 145.20

[ithatheekret]

I wonder how many stops it would trigger if it hits 146.10 .......

[ithatheekret]

146.274 ( fractionally lower ) three times in a row ...... so I reversed pos. and expect 146.3 barrier , bounce or my trailing stop better work .

don't really know why .... just a gut feeling , could be wrong but momentum is swinging about .


see if it can push aside 146.4 with any ease before we get comfortable .

[ithatheekret]

Crikey timing or what ........ :eek: 146.42 in a snap , here comes the retort .

[ithatheekret]

I was looking at the Swissie earlier today , I had never seen it so high before and woe and behold the Euro does the same thing against the USD and goes ATH on us .

On the otherhand ........ that would also mean the USD made a record low again .

So much for the strong dollar , but I've always thought the rhetoric was designed for economic confidence in the US as an investment vehicle ...... or to encourage the oil spreads etc. , to stay within USD controls .

I'd better turn Bloomberg on for the spin :D , I'm sure all the gossip and rumours will hit the screen after todays efforts on the dollar front .

[Kauri]

Just can't go past the humble triangle..
Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Small ledge/flag may be forming now... ??
Cheers
.........Kauri

[Kauri]

A flag maybe.... 150 in the sights in the European session???
The triangle (2 posts back) worked out well...
Cheers
..........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

Yes but it weaning off a little now , had a little ride a few times , one was accidental looking at wrong chart and entered EUR/USD order window I had up at same time ( I was very tired ..... and that's my excuse ) .

Doing wonders on the EUR/JPYshort at present , actually waiting for the next spike to hit it again .

[Kauri]

Flag drooped, and then some... :eek: stops cleared out... maybe a run up now..
Cheers
...........Kauri

[professor_frink]

Nice selloff this evening.....150+ pips from the days high and it might not be over yet(but probably is because I've said that):)

[soso]

My view, looking at the price action today I think the 5th Wave just completed in both smaller and larger patterhn. This option is also sustained by a time vibration which is due today. I think a larger correction/consolidation is due before resuming.

Next vibrations for Euro:
- December 6

[Kauri]

Nice selloff this evening.....150+ pips from the days high and it might not be over yet(but probably is because I've said that):)

Just been talking to my Uncle who is at the Freemasons lodge near Covent Gardens and what he had to say.. in confidence... oh dear... :eek: .. :) another factor to heed/ignore... straight charts for me anyday....
Cheers
..........Kauri ... :alcohol:

[professor_frink]

Just been talking to my Uncle who is at the Freemasons lodge near Covent Gardens and what he had to say.. in confidence... oh dear... :eek: .. :) another factor to heed/ignore... straight charts for me anyday....
Cheers
..........Kauri ... :alcohol:

.:)

[buggalug]

My view, looking at the price action today I think the 5th Wave just completed in both smaller and larger patterhn. This option is also sustained by a time vibration which is due today. I think a larger correction/consolidation is due before resuming.
Next vibrations for Euro:
- December 6

Hi Soso,

I have the same daily count as you, from the hourly I thought we might have one last crack at 1.5. But I'm very much a EW newbie, so happy to take any criticism.

[soso]

Hi Soso,

I have the same daily count as you, from the hourly I thought we might have one last crack at 1.5. But I'm very much a EW newbie, so happy to take any criticism.

Hi Buggalug,

Good to know you also have that count, I'm a newbie at EW also :rolleyes:

[Kauri]

Hi TI..
I am in one of my schitzophrenic states with the Euro... on the shorter frame I am looking for a possible bounce... whilst further out I see the possibility of mid 146's...
Cheers
........Kauri and me...

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi TI..
I am in one of my schitzophrenic states with the Euro... on the shorter frame I am looking for a possible bounce... whilst further out I see the possibility of mid 146's...
Cheers
........Kauri and me...

Hey Kauri. I assume TI means me!

I saw it finding support on the 89 ma last night, i was thinking there was going to be a quick long but i did not get the entry signal before i went to bed. It sure rallied with the US stocks. It's finding resistance again. I am also looking at it more from a short point of view waiting on a entry.

Cheers

[Kauri]

Hey Kauri. I assume TI means me!

I saw it finding support on the 89 ma last night, i was thinking there was going to be a quick long but i did not get the entry signal before i went to bed. It sure rallied with the US stocks. It's finding resistance again. I am also looking at it more from a short point of view waiting on a entry.

Cheers
Hi Trade It,
Sorry about the TI... :)
Agree with you... was expecting a bounce last night (may turn out to be a longer rally??).. and am now watching for signs of a retreat. Wouldn't be surprised if she shuffled basically side-ways today setting up for tonight??
Cheers
...........Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

what a run around today and tonight! :banghead:

solid support then it makes a long signal, then gives a profit just not enough to take profits or move to breakeven but enough to leave it be, come back and it close em out fast time!

sits on support gives a long entry at 6 dose the same wild **** drops enough to wash out all the short term stops then goes straight back up! :banghead: :banghead:

But i pulled 14 on the short side while it attacked my stop! :) right now it's exactly back to my entry! aggghhh the London session :rolleyes:

all the while the aud was making a nice calm push with out the fire works, and I thought the support on the euro made it a more attractive position!

Kauri I should have been with u getting my eye's checked!

**UPDATE just went long again big surge rejected 89sma broke range MACD confirms. support confirmed again**

This is the last time if it fails that's it for the week!

[Kauri]

Time for a kit kat???

A large 1.4690 option expiry might well pull price back once the early North American settles down.

Cheers
..........Kauri

[Kauri]

Time for a kit kat???

A large 1.4690 option expiry might well pull price back once the early North American settles down.

Cheers
..........Kauri

or not...
Cheers
..........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

I took a pos @ 147.226 , have a pinger under that as you know Kauri , blowed if I know whether I'll see it hit not far off though . Sentiment in the early trade may have muffled that idea .

[ithatheekret]

Been all over the place with this cross and the Yen tonight , bonza night .

I bet your watching that cuppa trying to form on the Euro from the 147.15 decline to 146.927 .... eh Kauri

I couldn't resist looked like the floor had been swept and mopped , ready for some muddy boots :D

[ithatheekret]

146.876 is my buy in entry waiting .......

didn't put anything under it and I hope i don't need to chase .

[ithatheekret]

Yes I'm in on the Euro now too , might put one under even though it picked up , just in case I did an early .


second stop buy hit @ 146.849

[ithatheekret]

Been shorting and buying , more on the bottom slope starting @ 1.46688 for my exit , then mini scwhinging . My Ichi just crossed were under a cloud but could see a spurt into 147.15 again , which might hit a few stops .....

but.... under a cloud with another crossing ( opp ) coming up it could retreat further .

PS... I'm holding long 1.46709

[ithatheekret]

A brawl started after the last crossing , another pos. one coming up will put it in the cloud just after the crossing ...... here comes volatility .

[Kauri]

Just how strong is the Euro as a whole??? :)
Cheers
..........Kauri



Scanning through reports it appears that gradually it is dawning on some of the macro accounts that maybe the Euro miracle isn't quite as miraculous after all. An excellent but lengthy article on the International Herald Tribune site regarding the sorry state of affairs in the Spanish housing sector is worth a read, and brings up the following sobering facts:-
* Spain over the past 2 years produced 1/3rd of new jobs in the Euro zone, adding 22% of the region's new demand.
* House prices have risen by 176% over the same period, and construction has accounted for one in every five new jobs.
* Spanish banks have four times the provisions of their rivals across the European Union, and 3/4 of 60,000 property companies in Spain may go bankrupt.
* The C/A deficit demands E2 billion a week to finance.
Tight European credit conditions, a global focus on sub-prime issues, and stabilizing US economic conditions make the buck look quite attractive.

[Kauri]

stepped out for some air and missed this quickie.... :(
Cheers
...........Kauri

P.S.... and I guess this explains it... :eek:



Rumours Citigroup could report bigger asset write downs in its quarterly results due out tomorrow reportedly sent the EUR/USD soaring by more than 50 pips to 1.4875 high, before easing some on ECB Bini s comments, who played down inflation fears.

[>Apocalypto<]

taken a long on the eur/usd,

where the pa fell to is still ok as long as the buying stays there. bounced off a trend line.

see what happens

[>Apocalypto<]

taken a long on the eur/usd,

where the pa fell to is still ok as long as the buying stays there. bounced off a trend line.

see what happens

taken profits +27 pips.

[hangseng]

If it doesn't hold 14776 then support will wane quickly and drop rapidly to 14712 IMO.

Euro should be going up against the USD, something is not right here.

[ithatheekret]

I'm wondering when Trichet is going to raise the rate , he has a growth problem , but inflation and a consumer credit are out weighing these .

The same here the RBA is really in the same spot , slowing growth possibilities with high inflation , higher debt levels .

I believe the rates by both are faits accomplis to rise .

The inflation monster is out of its cave .

[bvbfan]

Europe has some issues with property bubble in Spain so Trichet may be worried/limited to leaving rates on hold.

I think AUD has greater upward pressure on rates than EUR, I'm quite bullish on the AUDEUR cross, expect it to move on fundamentals to mid 0.64-65

[AuggieW]

Did anyone else buy USD @ 1.4650? I'm holding until my stochastic crosses at the oversold level heading back up. At last it decided to fall off its uptrend it had been on since 21 Dec. Anyone tracking the same movement?

Auggie

[>Apocalypto<]

Did anyone else buy USD @ 1.4650? I'm holding until my stochastic crosses at the oversold level heading back up. At last it decided to fall off its uptrend it had been on since 21 Dec. Anyone tracking the same movement?

Auggie

There is already a eur/usd thread Auggie

as for the usd, I am watching i was long on the usd/chf yesterday taken profits. looking for another confirmed entry.

[DonAqua]

My view, looking at the price action today I think the 5th Wave just completed in both smaller and larger patterhn. This option is also sustained by a time vibration which is due today. I think a larger correction/consolidation is due before resuming.

Next vibrations for Euro:
- December 6

Hi, Soso

what's your view currently ?

[>Apocalypto<]

Hi, Soso

what's your view currently ?

r u being sarcastic Don? Or is that a legit Q?

I know what my answer would be. :D

[>Apocalypto<]

Europe has some issues with property bubble in Spain so Trichet may be worried/limited to leaving rates on hold.

I think AUD has greater upward pressure on rates than EUR, I'm quite bullish on the AUDEUR cross, expect it to move on fundamentals to mid 0.64-65

totally agree BVBfan,

just looking at the chart the aud is making new trend like the eur is, but the aud is on a much better angle of assent. I am waiting for a minor pull back to my 21 ema on the 4 hour to get in. if this is what it seems to be now.

but i won't write the euro off.

[>Apocalypto<]

dame it!

I was watching the eur/usd on the 4hour a pendent was forming, normal trend cont pattern, took my mate to the airport got home and missed the break out aghhhhhhhhhhh

anyone catch the move?

[Kauri]

dame it!

I was watching the eur/usd on the 4hour a pendent was forming, normal trend cont pattern, took my mate to the airport got home and missed the break out aghhhhhhhhhhh

anyone catch the move?

This one??? no mate... missed it..promise. :)
Cheers
...........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

Eurogal moving again . Limit set at 1.4741's little pozzies.

[>Apocalypto<]

Eurogal moving again . Limit set at 1.4741's little pozzies.

hmmm 1hour at 6 gave a buy, took it and thing fell like a rock. still hanging in there. It's retraced a fair amount back but jeez what a sell ya the dummy!

:22_yikes: :cool:

[>Apocalypto<]

hmmm 1hour at 6 gave a buy, took it and thing fell like a rock. still hanging in there. It's retraced a fair amount back but jeez what a sell ya the dummy!

:22_yikes: :cool:

looks to have found a temporary footing on the 21 ema

see if we can get a bounce off at next candle, hmm way it's acting may come this hour! i better shut up or it will fall!

[>Apocalypto<]

looks to have found a temporary footing on the 21 ema

see if we can get a bounce off at next candle, hmm way it's acting may come this hour! i better shut up or it will fall!

switched short,

the 4 hour backs me up so its not a revenge trade! hmmm chasing me already...... stop above the candle see what happens on this.......

[DonAqua]

r u being sarcastic Don? Or is that a legit Q?

I know what my answer would be. :D

It's a legitimate question. The Euro is overvalued. I reckon with a reversal of the trend sooner or later. That is the Dollar will raise. Unexpected and coming as a surprise to many. I know, I said this already last year. I am still convinced that we will see a reversal of the trend in a not too distant future.

Regarding the housing/property trouble in Europe: Spain has some problems, but it looks that Great Britain is prone to even bigger troubles. I was at a road show of a financial institution recently, and they outlined the trouble spots. Watch the UK.

[ithatheekret]

hmmm 1hour at 6 gave a buy, took it and thing fell like a rock. still hanging in there. It's retraced a fair amount back but jeez what a sell ya the dummy!

:22_yikes: :cool:

Sorry you've lost me , I'll swing any swap or I'll buy and hold sell and hold , it just depends on what the markets sentiment and BSDs do .


The only move I stuffed up last night was a Yen move , it was quickly corrected .

The move your looking at I think ....... was 6 hours prior , from memory it just fell over 148 then retraced to 147.65 I think and yes I bought again , getting close to 30 clean pips from it on the second run , which didn't make it back to the 148 area . I think the best it has done since that run is 147.90's .

[ithatheekret]

Looks like Eurogal is going dance again , pinging 148.80 I'm on .


dip , dance , jump hurdles ?

[Kauri]

calm before the storm with euro ignoring a slight improvement in Eurozone PMI data and settling down to wait for the almighty US NFP... feel like jockeying for position but noticed that Danny Hobby is aboard Strike Softly.. may wait until the first turn..
Cheers
...........Kauri

[ithatheekret]

It's a start ..... patience is needed ........ no green cans so Stella it is .

I've used 4.86&#37; margin no higher this time Kauri t'was naughty before . Too hard one thinks ?

[Kauri]

I've used 4.86% margin no higher this time Kauri t'was naughty before . ?

I use natures inbuilt natural stress meter to know when I have gone in too deep..
When the clacker valve starts biting chunks out of the seat I back off..:)
Cheers
..........SteveH

[ithatheekret]

I moved out nicely then 1 poz made nothing .

[ithatheekret]

Eurogal is dancing again Tenk will cross from underneath est. 1.4895/92 and it should be above cloud .

Projection says 1.4918-1.4948 ? different one , might have to recheck that .

1.4892 cross

[tayser]

1.4982 :eek:

[>Apocalypto<]

Short on the eur/usd

ent 15037
S/L 15067

Counter trend in the making. but I have thrust protection on!

[Kauri]

Short on the eur/usd

ent 15037
S/L 15067

Counter trend in the making. but I have thrust protection on!

lottsa bids in the .30's and .20's supporting... with a chunk of options to be protected at 51 even for overhead resistance..

[>Apocalypto<]

lottsa bids in the .30's and .20's supporting... with a chunk of options to be protected at 51 even for overhead resistance..

It's chasing me Kauri! but I will hold in there. I can afford to let 30 go after making 234 in the last 18 hours!

ahhh back to sweet red : )

[Kauri]

It's chasing me Kauri! but I will hold in there. I can afford to let 30 go after making 234 in the last 18 hours!

ahhh back to sweet red : )

a bit more fuel to the fire??
ECB Weber comments the market is wrong to bet on rate cuts from the European Central Bank. The ECB member has noted that such expectations "fail to consider the dangers of higher inflation".

[Stormin_Norman]

inflation is a bigger concern to central banks then economic growth.

[>Apocalypto<]

Short on the eur/usd

ent 15037
S/L 15067

Counter trend in the making. but I have thrust protection on!

stopped, -30 pips.

It sure has legs right now but the angle of assent it's on is getting a little to 90 degree even for Forex standards.

Still looking for another counter trend entry.

[>Apocalypto<]

Sold the euro tonight couple of reasons there!

[>Apocalypto<]

Sold the euro tonight couple of reasons there!

closed out +34 pips

[>Apocalypto<]

another quick trade tonight, missed the other three nice plays.

+15 Limit exit

[>Apocalypto<]

Sold the Eur/usd tonight. Nice rounding with other entry criteria met.

+15 pips limit exit


2008.04.11 19:57:47 '79746': order #8989117 sell 1.00 EURUSD at 1.5822 sl: 1.5838 tp: 0.0000 closed at price 1.5807

[>Apocalypto<]

Second trade tonight.

Pa came back to 21 formed a doji trend cont. macd confirmed the trend cont.

+21 manual close. that's it for tonight unless something really plum comes along.

2008.04.11 21:22:09 '79746': order #8992868 buy 1.00 EURUSD at 1.5825 sl: 1.5805 tp: 0.0000 closed at price 1.5846

[>Apocalypto<]

Third trade tonight,

macd pattern with doji entry.

+ 11 pips Limit exit.


2008.04.11 22:48:14 '79746': order #8998693 sell 1.00 EURUSD at 1.5826 was modified -> sl: 1.5844 tp: 1.5815

[Kauri]

anyone else playing the Euro.. (apart from OzFX that is)? Has been a PPS'ing good run sofar.. but time to bail now and see what the Noram market thinks... :)

Cheers
..........Kauri

[el caballo]

Hi Kauri

Yes, this is a great currency to trade. How do you trade this - via the shorter term 1 min chart, or longer term hour-type setup, or combination of the two? Also, are you trading this with IG Markets?

Technically, many speak now of the triple top/triangle that has formed. How does your Elliot wave approach view this? Will this be a consolidation phase, leading to higher highs, or the bend at the end of a long bull market? I recall Gann viewed triple top breakthroughs as being extremely powerful.

Any comments are appreciated.

[Kauri]

Hi Kauri

Yes, this is a great currency to trade. How do you trade this - via the shorter term 1 min chart, or longer term hour-type setup, or combination of the two? Also, are you trading this with IG Markets?

Technically, many speak now of the triple top/triangle that has formed. How does your Elliot wave approach view this? Will this be a consolidation phase, leading to higher highs, or the bend at the end of a long bull market? I recall Gann viewed triple top breakthroughs as being extremely powerful.

Any comments are appreciated.

I trade on the 60 and 5 min charts... at the moment my daily chart says we should be looking for a break, one way or tother, from a triangle (double and triple tops often are the top resistance line of a triangle?), my basic E/W points to a short 5th due.. but, as with the price of anchovies, anything is possible..
Cheers
...........Kauri

[BentRod]

Finally got through.

Looking parabolic on the 5min chart.

[>Apocalypto<]

God knows what happened to the euro then. I just closed out my 2 lots +14 at limit and +47 closed on second lot.

was a short a very sweet ride. again i say there no place like FX!!!!

there has been money every were this week, too bad I missed half it due to work!

[Kauri]

God knows what happened to the euro then. I just closed out my 2 lots +14 at limit and +47 closed on second lot.

was a short a very sweet ride. again i say there no place like FX!!!!

there has been money every were this week, too bad I missed half it due to work!


Eurogroup chairman and Luxembourg PM Jean-Claude Juncker"s comment that the markets did not correctly understand the G7 message on FX. Juncker also says that he does not consider the euro rise versus the USD desirable..

[Whiskers]

Juncker also says that he does not consider the euro rise versus the USD desirable..

I got that impression too, couple months ago.

I'm thinking the US will soon start wanting USD higher too. Big turnaround coming... probably euro back to around 1.35. :sly:

Have the EU been selling gold and holding USD? :confused:

[theasxgorilla]

Interestingly Danske Bank seems to think that the ECB might actually raise rates in response to perceived inflation. Anyone else earning in EUR? :)



http://www-2.danskebank.com/danskeresearch (http://www-2.danskebank.com/danskeresearch)



ECB sharpening rhetoric - could it hike?

What’s new? There was more ECB talk today sharpening the tone on inflation, and there is increasing speculation as to whether the ECB could even raise rates. It is unclear how big that risk is. The markets have been pricing cuts for some time and the ECB may want to send a signal that this will not be possible given current inflation rates. For example, ECB member Garganas said: "Markets have expected interestrate cuts for months, but under these conditions, for reasons that have been well explained by Mr Trichet, interest rates couldn't fall. The ECB governing council's commitment to price stability is certain".

Other members, though, have mentioned higher rates as an option. For example, Noyer said this morning: "Our big problem is to ensure that inflation falls back below 2&#37; next year... We'll do what it takes for that... If needed we'll move rates". The ECBs Weber has also mentioned that the ECB would have to decide whether rates are high enough.

Clearly the ECB's concern over inflation (currently at 3.6%) has increased with the recent rise in oil prices and it has therefore sharpened its tone – even though ECB members seem a bit divided as to what the implications should be for rates. The flip side of the high oil price, however, is a stronger euro and weaker growth, which eventually should work to dampen inflation pressure. There is not much the ECB can do about inflation stemming from oil and food – apart from sending a signal.

Assessment and outlook: We are clearly in untested territory and hence uncertainty is huge. The market has responded to the rhetoric by sending yields higher and the curve has flattened markedly. This has apparently been exaggerated by a big unwinding of CMS steepeners (stop loss). It seems reasonable that the market reprices the risk assessment of the ECB. One of the jokers (there are many at the moment) will be how much growth slows. We will get further indications on this with Flash PMI tomorrow and German Ifo on Thursday. Our main scenario is still that the ECB cut rates in September but we need a strong slowing of the economy for that to come. The risk to our scenario is clearly that it doesn’t have room to cut in September because oil prices and hence inflation is too high.

[Kauri]

Interestingly Danske Bank seems to think that the ECB might actually raise rates in response to perceived inflation. Anyone else earning in EUR? :)




Yep, got a buy signal the tother day... :D

Cheers
...........Kauri

[Kauri]

A good 100pip drop to be on on the 5min... may be flagging/coiling/ or even ledging.... one to watch.... she dropped so quickly it has got away from my stop!!

Cheers
............Kauri

[Kauri]

A good 100pip drop to be on on the 5min... may be flagging/coiling/ or even ledging.... one to watch.... she dropped so quickly it has got away from my stop!!

Cheers
............Kauri
at least the stall?? has given my stop time to catch up... :)

Cheers
...........Kauri

[Kauri]

The Euro has been kind to me tonight.. :) ..
and no, the trade state indicator in Red is not mya actual holding... am running my part finished EA on a demo acct. to test a few add-ons I've been working on.... am obviously still working on incorporating a stop.. :banghead: although the entries seem to be OK... so far.. :)

Cheers
..........Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

Trade 1 LONG -18 pips. Screw up bailed before it stopped me. my target ended up being hit by the thrust white thrust at trade 2.

Trade 2 LONG +10 follow up from second 1st hit limit 2nd lot out at BE

Trade 3 Short +25 1st at limit +10 2nd at +15 could have been a bit wider but wanted to get back in the black for the evening.

All in all quite the display of undisciplined trading tonight!

Still have the rest US to go don't think i can make it to the end though!

Got to say, LOVE the new look Joe well done!

Update
Trade 4 Short +10 on 1st at limit, no second lot.

[Kauri]

Hedgies apparently have been bailing earlier...chicago CTA's did/doing what they do best... now been accompanied by the descendants of the Titanics crew... incidentally.. for all those worried about their weight.. I'll wager there would be more than one genteel lady on the Titanic regretting passing on the cakes trolley as it went passed.. 10 days late.. butt... :o

Cheers
............Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

After all the sliding I think it has hit a small pause. My HA indicator all puffed out think a trend change is on the cards, well at least a 10 piper! ;)

I have gone in long (small) I want to add, waiting on my normal entry signs. See how long I can stay up for!

[Whiskers]

Hedgies apparently have been bailing earlier...chicago CTA's did/doing what they do best... now been accompanied by the descendants of the Titanics crew... incidentally.. for all those worried about their weight.. I'll wager there would be more than one genteel lady on the Titanic regretting passing on the cakes trolley as it went passed.. 10 days late.. butt... :o

Cheers
............Kauri
Just been phantom trading this one and the USD/AUD, (which is in a simmilar wedge) for awhile before I decide to venture in for real.

I thought it was due for a good correction, getting a bit wedged in... but I mentioned somewhere else that I was wondering whether it might pop it's top into the low 1.60's... the top of the long term trend channel first.

So kauri, is this kauri cherp cherp cheep cheep for wagering on the USD strengthening? :confused:

A friend went overseas for a holiday a few years back and said she came back with more AUD then she went with, thanks to currency conversion swings.

I might just run down to the currency exchange booth and grab a hand-ful of USD's and put them under the matress for awhile. :o

[Kauri]

Just been phantom trading this one and the USD/AUD, (which is in a simmilar wedge) for awhile before I decide to venture in for real.

I thought it was due for a good correction, getting a bit wedged in... but I mentioned somewhere else that I was wondering whether it might pop it's top into the low 1.60's... the top of the long term trend channel first.

So kauri, is this kauri cherp cherp cheep cheep for wagering on the USD strengthening? :confused:

A friend went overseas for a holiday a few years back and said she came back with more AUD then she went with, thanks to currency conversion swings.

I might just run down to the currency exchange booth and grab a hand-ful of USD's and put them under the matress for awhile. :o


Hi Whisky... freudian slip sorry.. Whiskers..

For mine the US is nearing the end of cutting.... theECB has all but put away the jack... UK is is seeing Landsend sinking... NZ is heading for recession... Aussie is starting to wobble... Germany which alone has propped up Europe is stumbling under the weight... and my Budgies are putting on their winter coats...
As for the Euro... I'm shorter than Toulouse... unless the buum falls out of the mighty US.. the DJIA is up 130 pts now, while 2-yr Tsy yields are up about 19bp at 2.379% vs 1.669% on April 14th.
Mind you... I have .."I'm wrong" stops set.. Y nott..

Cheers
............Kauri

[>Apocalypto<]

still long guys

in profit bounce coming on 30min. HA wider then a swelled cabbage! but it could be a set up for a new dive! agree about new direction Kauri. holding long till later today. then see what the market presents!

[Whiskers]

Hi Whisky... freudian slip sorry.. Whiskers..

For mine the US is nearing the end of cutting.... theECB has all but put away the jack... UK is is seeing Landsend sinking... NZ is heading for recession... Aussie is starting to wobble... Germany which alone has propped up Europe is stumbling under the weight... and my Budgies are putting on their winter coats...
As for the Euro... I'm shorter than Toulouse... unless the buum falls out of the mighty US.. the DJIA is up 130 pts now, while 2-yr Tsy yields are up about 19bp at 2.379% vs 1.669% on April 14th.
Mind you... I have .."I'm wrong" stops set.. Y nott..

Cheers
............Kauri

:D:D:D

Thanks for that, mate.... I got it now, I think :sly:

[Whiskers]

still long guys

in profit bounce coming on 30min. HA wider then a swelled cabbage! agree about new direction Kauri. holding long till later today. then see what the market presents!

Watch her... watch her close, or she'll toss ya like a split banana. :D

[>Apocalypto<]

Watch her... watch her close, or she'll toss ya like a split banana. :D

LOL

Longs are closed +27 pips. :) back to bed now. no trading till later in the day.

[>Apocalypto<]

Short trade this afternoon.

Lot 1 +11 limit Lot 2 +2 stop

price is stuck in a range right now just nearing Europe market open and London at 5. interesting to see the markets response to the USD rally yesterday. I am hoping for a choppy volatile session! :) see what comes our way.

[caribean]

Still in those shorts Ap. mate? it's very pretty...i've only managed 10 points...

[Kauri]

Quite a lot of barriers apparently located around 5550... then is fairly clear till the figure// I figure..

Cheers
..........Kauri

[caribean]

Maybe a bit further to the 200% and TL and not forgeting the square number..
20457

[>Apocalypto<]

Still in those shorts Ap. mate? it's very pretty...i've only managed 10 points...

no not in the market now Caribean. waiting on another entry to present it's self. I had my second lot stopped out with a 2 pip gain on a retrace. it sure did keep going there a second entry signal that presented but this entry I have not properly back tested so it's not a approved entry for my system. had to let it go.

But the night is young! :)

P.S
A minor retrace pushing now see were it goes.

[caribean]

Yes you're right we've got a long way to go...there's a bit of a milestone within reach for me tonight, i would like to get there before the weekend...
We may experience a bit of chop now...

[>Apocalypto<]

Going back to the old school with this post. trying to prempt the market instead of playing off what it shows me. but what the hell.

this retrace may have some small legs in it volume building and decent tails on the HA but they can miss lead. IMO this could be a stronger retrace that may sell done again. WAITING

A Long is building but it's no were near a sure thing yet

[caribean]

Did anyone score some points to the upside?