For my first post, I want to discuss about Paperlinx. It's been mentioned in a couple of posts before when it took a tumble in Apr / May due to profit downgrades (strong aussie dollar hurting US pricing, slowing demand, etc.,) but now seems to have bottomed out and making good grounds.
Anyone have any info on this?
hmm... how do you post an image???
Got it - it auto attaches :D
RichKid
19th-July-2005, 09:43 PM
For my first post, I want to discuss about Paperlinx. It's been mentioned in a couple of posts before when it took a tumble in Apr / May due to profit downgrades (strong aussie dollar hurting US pricing, slowing demand, etc.,) but now seems to have bottomed out and making good grounds.
Hi jyse,
Welcome to the forums, glad you managed to get the chart attached. There's an FAQ in the toolbar too.
From a quick glance at the line chart you posted it looks like an inverse head and shoulders reversal. Also a possible 123 set-up, still no trigger but need a better graph. If the AUD has a strong effect on the sp then watch out as the AUD maybe about to break upwards soon.
Just my initial view.
jyse
20th-July-2005, 09:08 AM
I'm quite a novice at this but I figured they own Reflex papers which is synonymous for copy paper here AND at the current price, they forecast dividends put them at almost 9% so it seems a safe bet for me. Better than my ING account :D
BXP
20th-July-2005, 10:01 AM
I think also Europe is important. The economies are slowing and PPX gets a lot of revenue from there. They are coming back. Also FPA is one that is also doing well after a large fall.
RichKid
2nd-September-2005, 06:48 PM
This one seems to be falling back again- wonder if it's the AUD? Does it have such a big effect on this stock? Don't think so, has kinda gone sideways abit recently. Anyone got an updates on the FA?
GreatPig
15th-December-2005, 08:29 PM
Today PPX broke above the highs of July, creating a small gap day.
Could this be the start of another run up, or are we perhaps about to see a small island reversal?
Hopefully the former, since I hold :D
Cheers,
GP
RichKid
15th-December-2005, 09:28 PM
Today PPX broke above the highs of July, creating a small gap day.
Could this be the start of another run up, or are we perhaps about to see a small island reversal?
Hopefully the former, since I hold :D
Cheers,
GP
Volume would be nice but it looks green lights all the way, might it re-test the resistance line?
BuyandHold
4th-January-2006, 03:04 PM
I think PPX was way overdone when it got hammered last year. I think the biggest concern at the time was management capability not the profit downgrade (which though unexpected was relatively small). There was a view at the time that management didn't understand why they were behind plan and many questioned why PPX's profit estimates had been based on an USD/AUD of 70c. PPX still generates a good cashflow and is the worlds largest fine paper merchant, I like PPX long-term. (note: I hold PPX stock).
NettAssets
22nd-August-2006, 12:21 PM
Anyone have any feelings on this
up 8% (25c) on a reasonable annual return and div announcement of 4.5c
I've been trading their swings but missed this one
could it be possibly be tied up in the Amcor rumblings?
Looks like BPC is out of that picture
John
UMike
31st-January-2007, 09:34 PM
I've just bought into PPX. I feel lucky to have got it at $3.51
I feel it'll be good Medium-Long term.
JBMMMMMMMMMM
23rd-February-2007, 06:14 PM
your be happy now its 4.40 in under a month from 3.50
-What I'd love to know is Why has is run so hard ,I've only looked over PPX very briefly so might be completely wrong but it's looking like a good short.
-the 300million offer to holders to buy some of PPX's dept with the chance to be paid in more PPX shares(diluting SH's)
-P/e- 30+ low divie 2%
-Higher AUD/USD looks likely - Oil price 60+ Interest rates world wide look to increase.
-Manufacturing isn't China & vietnam india undercutting the world in this sector.
-ASX200 over 6000 alot of anaylst talking up a large downward correction soon
-Theres my negatives
-Some postives -PPX SPS help retire dept ,Increasing revenue,solid Asset backing ,leading International paper merchant
UMike
23rd-February-2007, 07:09 PM
Being an absolute week of getting nothing right I sold it for $3.88.
AND BOUGHT FGL and ABS. :banghead:
Heres to a better week next week. :drink:
barney
24th-February-2007, 02:27 AM
your be happy now its 4.40 in under a month from 3.50
-What I'd love to know is Why has is run so hard ,I've only looked over PPX very briefly so might be completely wrong but it's looking like a good short.
-the 300million offer to holders to buy some of PPX's dept with the chance to be paid in more PPX shares(diluting SH's)
-P/e- 30+ low divie 2%
-Higher AUD/USD looks likely - Oil price 60+ Interest rates world wide look to increase.
-Manufacturing isn't China & vietnam india undercutting the world in this sector.
-ASX200 over 6000 alot of anaylst talking up a large downward correction soon
-Theres my negatives
-Some postives -PPX SPS help retire dept ,Increasing revenue,solid Asset backing ,leading International paper merchant
I agree JB (M times 10) .................. I had it short when it looked like it had double topped at $4 .................. , had to do some quick sidestepping when the fundamentals clashed with the technicals :D .......... Cheers.
JBMMMMMMMMMM
26th-February-2007, 11:44 AM
Glad I shorted on friday looks good to retreat to $4 :D
JBMMMMMMMMMM
27th-February-2007, 10:54 AM
These 429 buyers must know something I don't
AUD up against USD
OIL up
Major sellers at 430
Come on buyers what makes you think PPX P/e -31 is a buy :banghead:
:cool: might take my short to 50,000
UMike
19th-November-2007, 10:24 PM
At $2.50 it'd be getting a bit tasty.
I'll look at getting a few more if it gets to around $2.40
:2twocents
So_Cynical
29th-June-2008, 10:17 PM
This is the first time ive looked at PPX and other than the SP it looks like a
great business...merchants and manufacturers of fine paper.
Company Summary
$5.84 all time high in late 03
$3.80 52 week high
$1.67 low last week
Market Cap: 829,162,667
Issued Shares: 453,094,354
Sure the high dollar is an issue but the fact is that Australia is a great place
to make paper, as quality paper requires the long fibers found in Australian
eucalyptus trees....there's alot of plantations coming online now and in the
near future, so supply is a total non issue and mechanized harvesting will
help reduce costs in the long term.
Trading at near all time lows at the moment...all time chart below.
any fresh opinions?
UMike
29th-June-2008, 10:34 PM
The new facility is nearing completion and although over budget there has been an increase in the operation saving being budgeted.
prawn_86
17th-February-2009, 11:11 AM
Up over 100% so far :eek:
News that it is selling some assetts or something. Never followed the stock before but thought it at least deserved a mention...
YELNATS
17th-February-2009, 11:24 AM
Up over 100% so far :eek:
News that it is selling some assetts or something. Never followed the stock before but thought it at least deserved a mention...
Held this stock mainly for dividends for a few months a couple of years ago and got out with a small loss. Not really in a high-tech/high-growth industry, so I couldn't see a brilliant future for this one.
UMike
17th-February-2009, 08:35 PM
Up over 100% so far :eek:
News that it is selling some assetts or something. Never followed the stock before but thought it at least deserved a mention...Well the market had a genuine fear that this company would fall over.
Seems that it will survive but it'll take a long time to be confident in this conpany again.
Tysonboss1
18th-February-2009, 11:48 AM
Well the market had a genuine fear that this company would fall over.
Seems that it will survive but it'll take a long time to be confident in this conpany again.
I think that PPX will be generating pretty strong sales while the Aussie dollar is low, Alot of it's traditionally cheaper competitor's who import paper have made 5 price increases which now makes PPX aussie made products better priced.
4fundamentals
27th-July-2009, 12:58 PM
Hi Guys,
I am still new to investing. I am really looking into PPX.
I see sooo much value just from a fundamental perspective. 2008 Annual Figures suggest a NTA per share of $2.72. Looking at Aegis and MSSB (morgan stanely smith barney views), 2009F $2.65 for MSSB and $1.09 for Aegis.
I'm looking at an entry at about $0.41?
I was hoping for any technical analysis of this stock?
Thanks
Boh
boofhead
27th-July-2009, 01:41 PM
I suggest researching the market and the various entities PPX own - including some making losses. For example paper making. While PPX sold (or selling) Australian Paper to a Japenese company they have retained the less profitable (a recent review said it is making an unacceptable loss) Tas Paper. Many people use imported papers. Last financial year they only paid 1 dividend instead of their normal 2. Have you looked at their financial reports?
$20shoes
6th-February-2010, 11:11 AM
Bumping this thread. Perhaps one to watch....
Nice base. Has held well during the broader market weakness of late ( could argue that it hasn't done much prior ;) )and will be interesting to see how the high volume of Friday resolves itself. Certainly 60c looks like a buying area with volume support. For the watchlist...
hesking1
13th-June-2011, 01:12 PM
No comments on PPX for a fair while. Does anyone have any opinion on if there is value left in this market dog? Is it a "cigar butt" with one last puff left or a falling knife going all the way to the bottom?
Market cap: ~$95m
2010 Revenue: $5bn
2010 NPAT: $37.2m loss
Shares: 603.6m
Net assets: $923.9m
Expected FY11 loss of $23m
nulla nulla
13th-June-2011, 01:48 PM
PPX has been on my watch list for a couple of years now. However, they have been in trouble for a most of that time with a faling share price that shows little sign of bouncing. ppx was a producer/distributor with established brands like "reflex" selling into Europe, Australia and the U.S. From memory they sold off their plants as being too expensive to modernise and upgrade to stay competitive. As a result they are now a distributor.
Their NTA is higher than their share price but I don't know what their assets are after they sold of the manufactoring plants. They have significant borrowing levels that need to be refinance from time to time, also the rising dollar doesn't help them compete as a wholesaler/distributor in the global market. They have stated that they have a policy of not getting into price wars for fear of over diluting their revenue stream. However they recently downgraded their forcasts and i don't think they have issued a dividend for some time.
They could become a take over target for someone wanting their established brand lines but paper is relatively cheap now and their is a lot of competiton. Looking at it objectively, ppx looks like it is in wind down mode. The only beneficeries to the income stream being the management on salaries and the financiers.
If I was a share holder I wouldn't like to see any payment of management bonus/incentives while they are unprofitable and the share price so badly depressed.
hesking1
13th-June-2011, 07:07 PM
Thanks for the reply Nulla Nulla.
I tend to agree but can't help feeling there is some value here. There was an informative article recently by Ian McIlwraith (http://www.theage.com.au/business/nothing-going-right-for-paperlinx-20110601-1fgo2.html) noting that PPX is exposed to the European countries that are currently facing significant economic headwinds (ie everywhere other than Germany and France).
And looking closer at their NTA, a significant proportion is currently tied up in inventories and receivables which is always liable to significant writedowns...
I did a Warren Buffet "break-up" analysis and came up with an adjusted per share book value of ~$420m or 70c per share, but this is very sensitive to changes in valuation of inventories. If they are valued at $0 then that pretty much leaves nothing :eek:.
Ah well the search for value continues..
nulla nulla
1st-July-2011, 08:23 PM
Bugger, I was waiting to see if it hit $0.10 then I was going to throw some super funds at it for a small parcel and hold for any prospects of a recovery against NTA. Talk about timing. I picked PPX for the stock tipping competition but it took off two days before month end. Instead of $0.105 - $0.11 the 30 June price jumped to $0.16, without me.
Then it went into a trading halt pending a "restructure announcement". Odd how the share price jumps immediately before the announcement. Insider trading any-one? Wonder if ASIC will even bother to look into it?
43466
Had to cancel and repost as I forgot the chart. :)
Garpal Gumnut
1st-July-2011, 08:59 PM
Bugger, I was waiting to see if it hit $0.10 then I was going to throw some super funds at it for a small parcel and hold for any prospects of a recovery against NTA. Talk about timing. I picked PPX for the stock tipping competition but it took off two days before month end. Instead of $0.105 - $0.11 the 30 June price jumped to $0.16, without me.
Then it went into a trading halt pending a "restructure announcement". Odd how the share price jumps immediately before the announcement. Insider trading any-one? Wonder if ASIC will even bother to look into it?
43466
Had to cancel and repost as I forgot the chart. :)
Somebody knew something at 17 and 15c., looking at the chart.
