CSL - CSL Limited

[kaisong]

Topical biotech company, price goes all the way down from start and later start raising!! watch this one, it may raise to $60 in the next few yrs!

[Jay-684]

any one have any thoughts/technical analysis on CSL?

I'm thinking of buying, as its popped up a few times over the past weeks with good reviews, however given its recent run, I dont know if buying now would be a good thing, or if the recent run would suffer a correction in the near future.

Any advice would be great, as I havent been able to find anything else here about the company

[Knobby22]

Look at the cervical vaccine thread for more info.

In my view this is a good stock long term (2 years +) as earnings will increase and there are some upsides including a new drug on the horizon.
This year may be a bit flat as they have to pay a % of their earnings to the company that they took their plasma production factories off.

Short term maybe a techie has an opinion.

[RichKid]

Just thought I'd post some graphs as people are interested, I'm a novice at this so don't take it as advice, haven't done much work on this but I'm surprised again at the fact that this is the third ASX200 stock I've noticed this week which appears to be forming a double top (others are UTB, AMP(triple top?), MAY).

The broader market index is also having another go to get through previous tops, so a lot of uncertainty in my view. From memory you need a break below the support/neckline of the double to for it to be confirmed. The higher lows now need a higher high for confirmation of the uptrend, perhaps on a lower trajectory if it come good- but might be the last gasp of the current uptrend. Likely to range bw 25 & 35 imo if it can't break through the resistance. For going long I'd personally wait for break of resistance and setlling above the top on volume but that's just my idea of a safe trade.

The longterm chart shows a nice double bottom and small H&S reversal pattern with a strong run until the recent break of the uptrend and current attempt at breaking through old highs. I haven't done any fib lines or retracement levels on this but it would be useful- appears to be oscillating around the 50% retracement level (ie midway bw previous high and low as shown on longterm chart).

[michael_selway]

Hi i noticed CSL dropped BIG from Jan 02 to Jun 03, then it began to rise again

Does anyone know the reasons why it dropped? any links?

thanks

MS

http://img301.imageshack.us/img301/6356/csl2cy.jpg

[ice]

Not one I follow but world over-supply of plasma was the big issue from memory.

http://www.theage.com.au/articles/2003/02/18/1045330601931.html


ice

[Prospector]

Dredging this one up from the archives.......

The CSL story this year has been spectacular in terms of ethical shares. Most recent has been the Gardasil story with regard to prevention of almost all cervical cancers. And last week they reduced the price so that all teen girls could be treated. (as an aside Barnaby Joyce said that girls shouldnt be treated because it might encourage them to become promiscuous. Yeh, right! Can you see the hormonally driven 17 year old thinking ...... "I musnt have sex in case I get cervical cancer!" pfft to that!)

But that is just one of the good news stories it has released.

Not to mention the share price which yesterday rose $4.89 to close later at $62.75.

Curious though, it has increased over $25 in 12 months (well, actually more like 9 months ) and not one mention on the forum!

[Knobby22]

Out of fashion (high PE) and the fact that McNamee went up against the big boys and risked the company by going into plasma. there was also distressed plasma company that had low technology that deliberately sold its plasma cheap to force someone to buy it. McNamee used the low plasma price to double the size of the plasma business by buying a good plasma business off a strong competitor. Oversold badly, it amazes me how a trend has momentum of its own.

I own quite a few. It is a very good company with good management and blue sky that invrests heavily in research. My personal valuation of the stock is around $85 neglecting blue sky so I will not be a seller at these prices. If the company stopped spending money on R+D the bottom line would be much higher.

I mentioned them a while back in this forum.

For my mind, the only true quality growth stock in the ASX

K22

[Prospector]

And currently up another $3.15 atm! Sorry Nobby, didnt see your post about CSL! I just did a search and came up with this thread and thought that duplicate threads were verbotten here!

The Ferret did a rather nice report on CSL today!

[michael_selway]

And currently up another $3.15 atm! Sorry Nobby, didnt see your post about CSL! I just did a search and came up with this thread and thought that duplicate threads were verbotten here!

The Ferret did a rather nice report on CSL today!

Great stock

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 184.2 231.3 293.3 365.5
DPS 68.0 80.5 102.9 122.6


Date: 14/12/2006
Author: Eli Greenblat
Source: The Australian Financial Review --- Page: 13
CSL is expected to enjoy strong profits in 2007, but analysts warn that 2008 could see a downturn. The Australian-listed biotechnology company reported on 13 December 2006 that profits will reach $A440m to $A460m in 2006-07. Analysts say a plasma shortage in the US has led to increased prices. However, they say the increase will be shortlived. The latest earnings guidance was 10 per cent up on the August 2006 forecast..


thx

MS

[chops_a_must]

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 184.2 231.3 293.3 365.5
DPS 68.0 80.5 102.9 122.6

Some crazy EPS forecasts there. Does anyone think there will be a negative impact on the share price when Gardasil gets competition later in the year?

[michael_selway]

Some crazy EPS forecasts there. Does anyone think there will be a negative impact on the share price when Gardasil gets competition later in the year?

heres some updated ones

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 184.2 246.7 305.9 366.0
DPS 68.0 86.6 104.4 123.5

thx

MS

[billhill]

Just read that CSL say they have developed a bird flu vaccine.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/newsitems/200701/s1836551.htm

Very promising especially if they recieve orders from some of the SE asian countries.

[Prospector]

I cant find a thread for CSL which surprised me given that this company has soared in the last few months. Maybe the Mods will find it for me.

This is one share that I decided to buy several months ago because while I thought it would be a good performer price wise, it is a company that provides state of the art medical research to the world (Gardasil, Bird Flu vaccine to name the 2 most obvious) and so has become my ethical share.

Todays announcement has seen it rise $2 today, yet barely a mention on the forum.

Why is that? Are biomedical shares simply not exciting enough? Gardasil will save so many lives, save $$$ in medical treatment in the prevention of cervical cancer, yet barely a whisper - please tell me it isnt because its about women? Or do they need to discover a cure for prostate cancer before it gets talked about :(

[TheAbyss]

Hi

try looking here, CSL - CSL Limited

[Prospector]

Why didnt it come up in the search function then! Dammit, now it does! I wonder who had the blonde moment! ;)

[fleathedog]

Todays announcement has seen it rise $2 today, yet barely a mention on the forum.

STOP REMINDING ME!!!!

I was personally told by a mates dad Prof. Ian Gust, a world renown expert on virology, that CSL was good buying at $15. Usually I am sceptical of even very knowledeable people talking about stocks. Great products don't necessarily mean great businesses.

But why, at a PE of 15 (if my memory serves me), with a consistant history history of profitability in a resiliant industry DID I F***ING IGNORE HIM?!?!?!?

:banghead:

[Knobby22]

Todays announcement has seen it rise $2 today, yet barely a mention on the forum.

Why is that? Are biomedical shares simply not exciting enough? Gardasil will save so many lives, save $$$ in medical treatment in the prevention of cervical cancer, yet barely a whisper - please tell me it isnt because its about women? Or do they need to discover a cure for prostate cancer before it gets talked about :(

I was thinking of posting.

The announcement today is great showing the great business sense of CSL management.

Also saw the following:-

Revenues ahead of expectations. Gardasil revenues were US$155 for the quarter and US$235m for the calendar year. CSL earns a net ~6% royalty on Gardasil sales. Excluding the $10m Gardasil sales in CSL’s FY06 year, the ramp-up of sales has outpaced MRE’s estimates for 1H07 by 44.7%. As a result, MRE have upgraded their FY07 royalty number by $10.9m to $52.0m ahead of CSL’s original guidance of $40–50 given at the FY06
result.

McNamee will be awash with cash soon and have a lazy balance sheet. We may get another takeover happening or a buyback next year. I predict that CSL will be a top 10 company in 5 years.

Also, don't forget this cervical vaccine makes up only a small amount of profit for this company. They have an amazing world wide plasma business and some great future drug prospects since taking over Zenyth (which I also had shares in). This includes an asthma cure!

[Prospector]

STOP REMINDING ME!!!!

I was personally told by a mates dad Prof. Ian Gust, a world renown expert on virology, that CSL was good buying at $15. Usually I am sceptical of even very knowledeable people talking about stocks. Great products don't necessarily mean great businesses.

But why, at a PE of 15 (if my memory serves me), with a consistant history history of profitability in a resiliant industry DID I F***ING IGNORE HIM?!?!?!?

:banghead:

You ignored Prof Gust :eek: Serves you right then :p:

[>Apocalypto<]

This is a great share for the shorrt medium and long.

But I am only in short term trades. I have been having lots of fun since 11/06 I only added it to my list then!

I just got out yesterday pulled out a nice 6 dollar chunk!

[>Apocalypto<]

I cant find a thread for CSL which surprised me given that this company has soared in the last few months. Maybe the Mods will find it for me.

This is one share that I decided to buy several months ago because while I thought it would be a good performer price wise, it is a company that provides state of the art medical research to the world (Gardasil, Bird Flu vaccine to name the 2 most obvious) and so has become my ethical share.

Todays announcement has seen it rise $2 today, yet barely a mention on the forum.

Why is that? Are biomedical shares simply not exciting enough? Gardasil will save so many lives, save $$$ in medical treatment in the prevention of cervical cancer, yet barely a whisper - please tell me it isnt because its about women? Or do they need to discover a cure for prostate cancer before it gets talked about :(


Your ethical share that is a great way of selecting!

[canaussieuck]

Another one to go short on next week. Looks like its closed well off the highs today. It is Friday though. Been a pretty hard run for it lately.

Cheers,

[Prospector]

Currently up $7.70 in 10 minutes. Any record?

[chops_a_must]

Currently up $7.70 in 10 minutes. Any record?
A rather large gap up. Lol! Big dividend increase, fantastic.

[michael_selway]

A rather large gap up. Lol! Big dividend increase, fantastic.

lets see what the new forecasts will be, below is before annoucement

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 184.2 249.0 301.8 367.3
DPS 68.0 86.6 103.7 126.6

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 249.0 28.2 35.2%
Year Ending 30-06-08 301.8 23.2 21.2%

thx

MS

[chops_a_must]

Is someone able to do a wave count on this? Because it looks pretty interesting on the 10 year chart.

[dhukka]

lets see what the new forecasts will be, below is before annoucement

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS 184.2 249.0 301.8 367.3
DPS 68.0 86.6 103.7 126.6

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 249.0 28.2 35.2%
Year Ending 30-06-08 301.8 23.2 21.2%

thx

MS

Michael if you want to understand the value of CSL looking at earnings is only half the story. If you look past the headline result of a 46% increase in profits you''ll see that $53m (mainly exchange rate losses) was written off directly against equity. Taking these charges into consideration NPAT is up just 5.3% on pcp. Fair value of CSL is around $35 - $40. One of the most overpriced large cap stocks on the ASX IMHO.

[Knobby22]

Michael if you want to understand the value of CSL looking at earnings is only half the story. If you look past the headline result of a 46% increase in profits you''ll see that $53m (mainly exchange rate losses) was written off directly against equity. Taking these charges into consideration NPAT is up just 5.3% on pcp. Fair value of CSL is around $35 - $40. One of the most overpriced large cap stocks on the ASX IMHO.

Dhukka

This is an international company, the way I read it is that the foreign exchange rate losses represent the fall in foreign currencies and assets held in that currency against the $A. When the $A falls it will reverse.

This is an international biotech drug company with high barriers to entry, increasing profits, real growth dues to research and takeovers such as Zenyth (which has a possible asthma cure among others).
What about the $85 mil "lost" on research?

It is not an Aussie bank and should be looked at differently.

[dhukka]

Knobby,

Since CSL earns most of its money in foreign currencies the movements in exchange rates represent a normal part of business. However CSL reports results as if they those currency movements were abnormal. Whilst its instructive to show the effect of exchange rate movements on earnings if you are truly interested in valuing a company's shares then looking at the underlying growth in equity is more important than earnings. If you just look at earnings and ignore changes in s'holders equity your missing the big picture.

You're right this is not a bank but it should not be valued any differently. CSL is a well managed profitable business but at current prices anyone interested in seeking value should look elsewhere.


Dhukka
This is an international company, the way I read it is that the foreign exchange rate losses represent the fall in foreign currencies and assets held in that currency against the $A. When the $A falls it will reverse.

This is an international biotech drug company with high barriers to entry, increasing profits, real growth dues to research and takeovers such as Zenyth (which has a possible asthma cure among others).
What about the $85 mil "lost" on research?

It is not an Aussie bank and should be looked at differently.

[Knobby22]

Knobby,

Since CSL earns most of its money in foreign currencies the movements in exchange rates represent a normal part of business. However CSL reports results as if they those currency movements were abnormal. Whilst its instructive to show the effect of exchange rate movements on earnings if you are truly interested in valuing a company's shares then looking at the underlying growth in equity is more important than earnings. If you just look at earnings and ignore changes in s'holders equity your missing the big picture.

You're right this is not a bank but it should not be valued any differently. CSL is a well managed profitable business but at current prices anyone interested in seeking value should look elsewhere.

I see what you are saying dhukka, but wouldn't you say that as the money and assets stay in the country that it is made then it really doesn't matter.
It would obviously if say the company was importing into Australia but in a real sense they are separate business linked by R&D. I would be horrified if CSL started taking contracts to smooth out the currency fluctuations purely to keep asset prices the same.

Asset value is not to me an important factor unless the buying and selling of the assets i.e. land takes place. That is why in a bank it is more important but not overly so.
I know Benjamin Graham harped on it in his books but times have changed. The company is not a selection of assets to be sold but a business.

If you feel it is, then fair enough. Technical indicator investors often think that we fundamental investors see the same things and make the same judgements but the reality is we are as different as they are.

I have had a great run with this stock, buying at the float and at $15 and $20 when they dropped briefly (and have never sold) and the company is starting to get near my estimated value of $85 however I am hopeful to hear of some success on the new drug front and expect CSL to be worth $100 in a years time.

Knobby

[dhukka]

I see what you are saying dhukka, but wouldn't you say that as the money and assets stay in the country that it is made then it really doesn't matter.
It would obviously if say the company was importing into Australia but in a real sense they are separate business linked by R&D. I would be horrified if CSL started taking contracts to smooth out the currency fluctuations purely to keep asset prices the same.

Asset value is not to me an important factor unless the buying and selling of the assets i.e. land takes place. That is why in a bank it is more important but not overly so.
I know Benjamin Graham harped on it in his books but times have changed. The company is not a selection of assets to be sold but a business.

If you feel it is, then fair enough. Technical indicator investors often think that we fundamental investors see the same things and make the same judgements but the reality is we are as different as they are.

I have had a great run with this stock, buying at the float and at $15 and $20 when they dropped briefly (and have never sold) and the company is starting to get near my estimated value of $85 however I am hopeful to hear of some success on the new drug front and expect CSL to be worth $100 in a years time.

Knobby


Knobby CSL do use hedges against currency fluctuations. Currency movements are reported net of such hedges. I'm not sure what you're talking about with regard to valuing a company based on its asset values. I don't value banks that way or CSL. I value businesses and the value of a business is reflected by its equity value. That equity is then multiplied by a sustainable ROE to refect its future prospects and then discounted at an apporpriate discount rate to reflect an investors required return and the risk of the business. In doing so and using an ROE at the high end of CSL's historical range I cannot get more tha $35 - $40 a share for CSL.

I would be interested to see how you come up with $85 a share.

[Knobby22]

Dhukka

Here is my valuation, I warn you that you will probably hate the way I do it and its pretty rough.

Firstly you need to confirm earnings are represented in the cashflow statement and are not one off. Secondly you need to ensure debt levels will not be disabling. Finally you have to have confidence in management, Elizabeth Alexander and Brian McNamee are probably the most honest and reputable people in the Australian stockmarket so I have no problem there.

OK, how my latest estimate:-
I chose an interest rate of 8%. I have not accounted for the inflation rate but assume it remains stable.

I have assumed growth of 60% this year, 20% next year then 25% the year after.
EPS will be $4.41 in 2009.

I then assume that future growth is 20% per year and can sell the shares at a PE of 20.

20 x 4.41 = $88.20 reducing to todays price divide by 1.04 (year half over) * 1.08 *1.08

$72.89

Add dividends (0.88/1.08 + 1.04/1.167 +1.28/1,26) = $2.71

and you get a price of $75.60.

So I guess I have to partially agree with you, the shares are fully priced at the present time.

[ducati916]

Impressive discussion chap's, possibly I'll have to pop in a little more often.
I have nothing to add unfortunately as I'm not familiar with this stock.

jog on
d998

[chops_a_must]

So I guess I have to partially agree with you, the shares are fully priced at the present time.
And from an insider, there are no new products or discoveries to be released in the near future to keep the price moving up. Apart from perhaps the iscomatrix adjuvant.

So I'm expecting a bit of a retrace after it goes ex-dividend.

[dhukka]

Dhukka

Here is my valuation, I warn you that you will probably hate the way I do it and its pretty rough.

Firstly you need to confirm earnings are represented in the cashflow statement and are not one off. Secondly you need to ensure debt levels will not be disabling. Finally you have to have confidence in management, Elizabeth Alexander and Brian McNamee are probably the most honest and reputable people in the Australian stockmarket so I have no problem there.

OK, how my latest estimate:-
I chose an interest rate of 8%. I have not accounted for the inflation rate but assume it remains stable.

I have assumed growth of 60% this year, 20% next year then 25% the year after.
EPS will be $4.41 in 2009.

I then assume that future growth is 20% per year and can sell the shares at a PE of 20.

20 x 4.41 = $88.20 reducing to todays price divide by 1.04 (year half over) * 1.08 *1.08

$72.89

Add dividends (0.88/1.08 + 1.04/1.167 +1.28/1,26) = $2.71

and you get a price of $75.60.

So I guess I have to partially agree with you, the shares are fully priced at the present time.


Knobby,

Valuations by nature are subjective. I don't hate your valuation method but I'm not sure about the logic behind it. Essentially you are performing a 3 year DCF but using eps instead of free cashflow. By using eps you are not discounting free cashflow as eps is after depreciation, amortisation, interest and tax, but maybe that's your intention? You are assuming CSL can grow earnings at 20% indefinitely, thats fairly optimistic, its standard practice by analysts to use a 3 - 4% terminal growth rate in DCF calcs. Just for the record I'm not a fan of DCF valuations. However you are making the same mistake analysts make when using DCF's - double counting of cashflows. If you are going to add dividends to your valuation you need to deduct them from eps or else you are counting the cashflow twice, once as retained earnings and once as a distribution in the form of dividends. You can't have it both ways.


I then assume that future growth is 20% per year and can sell the shares at a PE of 20.

If you accept that the value of a business is independent of its price as quoted on the ASX, then how can you use price as an input in determining value? The price has nothing to do with the value of the business.

[Knobby22]

Dhukka

To me eps is the real crux of a company, so you are right, it is intended however you still need to look at cashflow, debt, market competitors, long term factors etc. as a seperate exercise.

I disagree that you should not count dividends as it is double counting as a valuation should reward the giving of dividends by a company as it is a gain you get in your hand rather than leaving it in managements hand. Maybe I should have put in a adjustment factor that depends on franking and reduces total value however in this case, dividends affect the valuation of CSL only marginally as they are so small.

Regarding the selling price at a PE of 20. Finally, I am not using price as an input value. I am assuming a level of growth and then providing a resonable price based on that growth. So price is an output, not an input.

Using 4% growth just bacause it is standard practice is silly, CSL is a high growth company. Assuming 20% growth and therfore a PE of 20 may be too low but I am being conservative. We all know the market doesn't price for indefinitely but for one or two years in advance.

Knobby

[ducati916]

knobby22

It would seem that you are using a variant of the GARP methodology.
If so, is that your general methodology, or due to the current bull market?

jog on
d998

[Knobby22]

knobby22

It would seem that you are using a variant of the GARP methodology.
If so, is that your general methodology, or due to the current bull market?

jog on
d998

Your right. it is very similar! I appear to be though I didn't know of it. My valuation methods are my own invention but of course nothing is original. Thanks for that, there is a lot of interesting information to read.

And the second point is valid also. The parameters change depending on economic outlook and the state of the market. (In other words there is a fudge factor) :)

Also, this methodology only works for industrials with a track record.

[ducati916]

Your right. it is very similar! I appear to be though I didn't know of it. My valuation methods are my own invention but of course nothing is original. Thanks for that, there is a lot of interesting information to read.

And the second point is valid also. The parameters change depending on economic outlook and the state of the market. (In other words there is a fudge factor) :)

Also, this methodology only works for industrials with a track record.


Interesting that you reached this methodology independantly.
I would say that *most* fundamental valuation models require some form of track record.

The *fudge factor*...........don't we all?

jog on
d998

[stoxclimber]

Dude, your perpetual growth forecast is bigger than your cost of capital..

[dhukka]

Dhukka

To me eps is the real crux of a company, so you are right, it is intended however you still need to look at cashflow, debt, market competitors, long term factors etc. as a seperate exercise.

Knobby,

Without taking into account what percentage of earnings are retained and how much is paid out as dividends, changes in earnings earnings cannot accurately measure the change in the value of equity - which afterall is what you are trying to do. If you look at cashflow debt, competition and other factors how do you account for that in your valuation? Do you just adjust your assumed growth rate by an arbitrary number?


I disagree that you should not count dividends as it is double counting as a I valuation should reward the giving of dividends by a company as it is a gain you get in your hand rather than leaving it in managements hand. Maybe I should have put in a adjustment factor that depends on franking and reduces total value however in this case, dividends affect the valuation of CSL only marginally as they are so small.Knobby

I didn't say you shouldn't count dividends, dividends are a cashflow to the equity holder and therefore must be counted. I'm saying that your are double counting them. Earnings can only grow through the retention of previous earnings, then re-employment of those earnings and existing equity or by increasing return on equity.

By discounting the full value of eps of $4.41 you are assuming it is investment cashflow in the hands of the equity holder - which it is if the equity holder sells his/her shares in that year (which I think is what you are assuming?)
But then you value the dividends again separately in effect double counting them. However since you are discounting eps and not cashflow you may already be be dedcuting enough from cashflow to compensate for double counting the dividend.


Look at it another way -it's the same as valuing a bond paying 8% by counting the interest payment as a cashflow to the investor and then assuming it is reinvested again which of course it can't be if its paid out already.


Using 4% growth just bacause it is standard practice is silly, CSL is a high growth company. Assuming 20% growth and therfore a PE of 20 may be too low but I am being conservative. We all know the market doesn't price for indefinitely but for one or two years in advance.


I agree CSL can probably increase earnings at the rate you suggest over the next 2 1/2 years however I read your original post as assuming that CSL can grow at 20% indefintely into the future. If that is your assumption it is very far from conservative.

[Knobby22]

Knobby,

Without taking into account what percentage of earnings are retained and how much is paid out as dividends, changes in earnings earnings cannot accurately measure the change in the value of equity - which afterall is what you are trying to do. If you look at cashflow debt, competition and other factors how do you account for that in your valuation? Do you just adjust your assumed growth rate by an arbitrary number?



In affect, yes but not the growth rate! I adjust the interest rate which is really the expected rate of return. In this case it is 8%, for a company with worse management, more competition etc. I will raise the amount substantially. For a small company with low liquidity it may be something like 30%! It is really risk analysis. This is a skill that needs to be developed, but it is a valuable skill.

The intangibles like competition are very important. One of the things I like about technical analysis is that it is more concerned about the future. These skills can also be supplied through fundamental analysis by looking at the strengths and weaknesses of a company and adjusting your valuation accordingly. In CSL's case you are saying it is well led, has demonstratable advantages, has blue sky that can be very blue. It should be treated more favourably!


Dhukka

I will give you a challenge. Look at RDF and give me a valuation. And I will then give you one and we can compare results.
RDF results are out tomorrow and if the margins are improving this could be a killer company.

Knobby

[dhukka]

OK Knobby. I've never looked at this one before but here is my valuation before tomorrows result. Currently generating an uninspiring 14.6% return on equity. Of course if margins improve as you suggest the valuation will go up but at the moment I can get no more than $0.75 - $0.80 cents a share.

[Knobby22]

I only get $1.40 but there has been a great increase in contracts the last six months. Better change to RDF thread (thread drift).

[Gurgler]

the company is starting to get near my estimated value of $85 however I am hopeful to hear of some success on the new drug front and expect CSL to be worth $100 in a years time.

Knobby

Knobby - clicked over to $80 today. Read your impressive discussion with Dhukka (didn't understand it fully, but hey, not trained in that area!). There's quite a variation between your valuations. You still rate this as a $85 value target? In fact, this matches FN Arena's target of $85.21.

[Knobby22]

Knobby - clicked over to $80 today. Read your impressive discussion with Dhukka (didn't understand it fully, but hey, not trained in that area!). There's quite a variation between your valuations. You still rate this as a $85 value target? In fact, this matches FN Arena's target of $85.21.

It's all a bit subjective. I have not allowed much for blue sky as it is unknown and I am trying to be consevative. I would not be surprised to see the price continue to rise as we are in a strong bull market.

I heard McNamee on the weekend on the ABC. He has two drug programs trials after taking over Zenyth (which I also used to own). One is for asthma, the other for athritis. The trial results should be due within a year. If either is good, watch out! Otherwise CSL looks fully priced at present, though not overpriced.

[investforwealth]

CSL was the first stock I ever bought... a few days before the recent correction hit. Thought about dumping it when i was down a few grand, but very glad I didn't... how much has it soared in the last couple of days.

I hadn't expected this sort of price action for at least six months, but you won't hear me complaining. It's given me a 7.8% return on my investment in less than four weeks. Now my only regret is that I only bought 50k worth and not 500!

There seemed to be a decided lack of sellers on this stock today, but my concern is that all of you who got in around $15 or even $50 are thinking it might be time to take profits and start dumping them.

Anyone got any opinions on where it might end up next week?

[Prospector]

I bought in at around $37 and thought about selling a few weeks ago. I have decided not to sell, maybe ever, as I feel this company really still has a long way to go. One thing which has always puzzled me is the way the price will rise $3 a day, with no announcement and barely a ripple in the media; wheras a share like Telstra will increase 3 cents and everyone talks about it.

[vishalt]

I bought in at around $37 and thought about selling a few weeks ago. I have decided not to sell, maybe ever, as I feel this company really still has a long way to go. One thing which has always puzzled me is the way the price will rise $3 a day, with no announcement and barely a ripple in the media; wheras a share like Telstra will increase 3 cents and everyone talks about it.
Yeah it's so true hey, but I guess not as many people own CSL as they do Telstra so it gets less attention, but, who cares?

Pharmaceuticals are insanely good performers in a bull phase!

Personally i'm very interested in seeing which Australian stock will reach $100 first! PPT @ $76, MBL @ 81, CSL @ 83, COH @ 63, RIO @ 77..

very interesting times :D

[investforwealth]

Despite just about every analyst in the country being bearish on this stock and rating it a SELL, it just continues to smash through previous highs. Looks like it could win the race to $100 a lot sooner than anyone thought possible if it continues this trend. I took a nice profit out of it a while back, but soooo wish I'd hung on now!

[Knobby22]

True, I sold 1/13th of my holding and regret it.

[Gurgler]

From earlier this week:

CSL Should Crack $100 This Year, Says Tech Wizard
FN Arena News - April 23 2007


The Tech Wizard has observed shares of blood provider CSL (CSL) have been running up the top Bollinger band over the past six month. He explains this is a sign of strong buying in the market.

Supported by ongoing equity broker upgrades and a bullish MACD indicator the outlook for CSL shares continues to look positive, he believes.

The Tech Wizard believes the shares should be in a position to crack the $100 level at some point this year.


At that time, shares in CSL were higher - the stock was up $1.92 or 2.3&#37; to $86.92.

Today, they cracked 90.08; now sitting at $90.01.

[Prospector]

Still holding......and watching the race with MBL to crack the ton! And bought CSL and MBL in the $30's:D

[Gurgler]

What a difference a week makes! Last Tuesday the sp was 96.50 and they were talking about the race to $100 with MBL and RIO. Only the later is still in the ballpark.

Mind you, Prospector, at you purchase price I guess you're unfazed.

[Prospector]

True gurgler, but still dont like to see profit disappearing:confused:
Ah, not enough letters; is there a reason why this is happening?

[purple]

all quiet on the CSL front? looks like they're heading for the ol' breakout signal..

Bloomberg did a compilation of analysts' report on a couple of companies. CSL was mentioned with 12 analysts covering it to give an average target price of $95.94 in about 6-18months.
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=conewsstory&refer=conews&tkr=CSL:AU&sid=a1gg.tyOTehI

[purple]

been trading in and out of CSL in the past.

but right now the controversy building on its Gardasil drug has me a bit edgy and wanting out.

[Gurgler]

Purple: what are you basing these current reservations on. All the news I have found seems to be 2 months old. Have you come across more recent developments?

That pennant of yours appears to be heading to a breakout: you seem to be suggesting downward. Why?

[purple]

Gurgler,

nope, the breakout i suggested is actually up. if you read my previous post, I noted that

"Bloomberg did a compilation of analysts' report on a couple of companies. CSL was mentioned with 12 analysts covering it to give an average target price of $95.94 in about 6-18months."

tha'ts about a 6% share price target increase.

it's because I can't find any recent updates to the Gardasil stuff taht I'm posting to see if anyone has any news/insights on it.

[Gurgler]

Sorry, Purple, I didn't read enough before I posted. Yes, lack of news is a little unsettling - but maybe no news is good news(I'm a 'glass half full' person!)

[purple]

No worries, Gurgler. Well if CSL/Merck do get Gardasil to be mandatory use for the girls, then that’s going to be major $$ for them. Maybe that’s why the analysts had the sp increase target…

[zzodr]

CSL up $2.71 today (3.07&#37;) at the close, looks like some good news from the US about Merck helped things along. Which is good because I am long with CFDs with them and could use some good news! :)

[Gurgler]

Quite a recovery over the past week; the financials certainly helped and it looks like $100 is the next level of resistance (albeit emotional).

[Gurgler]

Third day in a row there was sizeable trading 'after the bell', this time sustaining the drive through $100 - finishing on 100.48. Anyone know whether this is typical with a stock like this?

It will be interesting to see how it sustains itself from here.

PS Prospector - now the only one of RIO, MBL & CSL in the ballpark ATM.

[Judd]

But when it goes to $33.33 per share after the 1 for 3 share split (if approved) does that change the value of the company? Nope. So much for the share price.

[Gurgler]

But when it goes to $33.33 per share after the 1 for 3 share split (if approved) does that change the value of the company? Nope. So much for the share price.

So true - missed that ann :banghead: :banghead:

SO, Judd, do you credit the improvement in sp to the financials or will the 4.5&#37; on-market buy-back have already begun?

[vishalt]

i accidentally longed it at $98 (thanks CMC) and put a limit at $100, well done to CSL!

hopefully RIO breaches $100 soon (again) and doesnt go back below triple-digits for a while, CSL's super-high P/E still worries me hence I don't see it as a long-term stock, and any product recall can damage medical stocks hard (take a look at resmed haha)

[Judd]

So true - missed that ann :banghead: :banghead:

SO, Judd, do you credit the improvement in sp to the financials or will the 4.5% on-market buy-back have already begun?

It should be the research value. The HPV anti-virus took more than 15 years to get to the market. CSL has many more research projects on the go. Some may work, some may not and a bit of it is pure, as opposed to applied, research. Pity that not many have the patience to wait 15 or more years to see the results of research. Too many txt msgs to send and the need for instant gratification.

You know, those who bought into the float at $2.40 and have held them have had about three times that value returned just in dividends. Talk about free carry!

[vishalt]

Pity that not many have the patience to wait 15 or more years to see the results of research. Too many txt msgs to send and the need for instant gratification.


i think most people would rather be rich tomorrow than in 15 years time o_O? assuming CSL is going to take "15 years" to show me its results influencing the share price id rather be enjoying the commodity boom/retail boom with rio tinto and david jones

and don't forget, this was CSL once upon a time:

http://img339.imageshack.us/img339/572/cslmainab1.jpg

[Prospector]

On our news today, not even one mention of it breaking $100 - our news reports are so unsophisticated!

OK, watching channel 2 and Allan Kohler has been very informative.

[Judd]

i think most people would rather be rich tomorrow than in 15 years time o_O?

Fortunately, I am not "most." And apparently I need to expand this bloody post to at least 100 chars
:drink::drink:

[vishalt]

Fortunately, I am not "most." And apparently I need to expand this bloody post to at least 100 chars
:drink::drink:
now im curious, can you explain the logic why you'd have the returns from stocks later, rather than sooner?

[Judd]

now im curious, can you explain the logic why you'd have the returns from stocks later, rather than sooner?

Because I am patient. Most on this forum look at price and consider that is all a company produces. If that were actually the case then capitalism does not exist. Trade by all means, it makes a market, just leave me with dividends which, over time (oh, dear that word again which implies patience) makes up about 50% of the return from shares. I no longer consider shares risky which is why I invest, as opposed to punt, on them.

[reece55]

Every time I review CSL, I am just amazed at what a strong trending stock it is......

Amongst the turmoil of a credit crisis, etc, CSL barely moved an inch. Attached is the monthly chart and truly, it is a sight to behold. Now with a capital recon (3 is for 1), they would have to be one of the few large entities in Australia that has reconstructed themselves capital wise (which I find unusual, as it is such a popular thing to do in the states). This is a long term investors dream stock and makes me think - how do I catch a ride on one of these??????

However, equally on the flip side I remember the dark days were I had a mate who invested at $40 in 02 to watch his investment go down some 2/3'rds.. I wonder if he is still holding now?

Cheers

[vishalt]

I might purchase the split entity lol.

Are you sure stock splitting is a popular thing to do in the US? I haven't seen many of the top companies do it, Apple/Google/Goldman Sachs are ridiculously expensive to purchase.

Oh and Berkaway Hathshire lol..

[reece55]

I might purchase the split entity lol.

Are you sure stock splitting is a popular thing to do in the US? I haven't seen many of the top companies do it, Apple/Google/Goldman Sachs are ridiculously expensive to purchase.

Oh and Berkaway Hathshire lol..

Hi Vishalt
Yep, it certainly is US wise..... Funny you mention Apple, they did a 2:1 split in Feb 05, but they are well overdue for one. For Google, it's clearly an icon status thing!

Take a look at just about any tech company - RIMM (Research in Motion, makers of the blackberry) are the latest to do it, I think theirs is a 3:1 too.

Cheers

[Gurgler]

Trade by all means, it makes a market, just leave me with dividends which, over time (oh, dear that word again which implies patience) makes up about 50% of the return from shares.

Judd
You must have to wait a long time and have expansive patience, as unless I'm missing something, 0.49 and 0.55c return on each $100 share does not make great return over the current year - just one percent.

[Judd]

Judd
You must have to wait a long time and have expansive patience, as unless I'm missing something, 0.49 and 0.55c return on each $100 share does not make great return over the current year - just one percent.

You are absolutely correct: if one had bought at $100. However, try the yield calculation based on the float price or any price up to $20.

[Gurgler]

Thanks Juddie, now I understand your perspective better. Unfortunately, I only bought in a year ago at $65; admittedly it has been a good year, as Reece pointed out. I don't wish to appear greedy, but it just so happens that this week I received a dividend of 2 cents on a share of 0.42-cent value and the contrast struck me.

I guess I would be hopeful to expect that the dividend would remain at .55 after the upcoming share split.

[Gurgler]

Is anyone else having trouble locating CSL on Westpac after the share split? Is it just Westpac or has the code changed OR do we have to wait until 31 Oct to trade?

[Judd]

CSLDA is the code.

[Gurgler]

Thanks very much Judd; there was probably notification of that somewhere but I missed it in my malaise. Cheers.

[brilliantmichael]

Haha At least I know there's somebody out there who also uses Westpac! Haha.

Gurgler and Judd what do you think of our "beloved" Westpac's brokerage rates? Would you say they're competitive?

[Prospector]

OK, so what happens now, I am with NAB, and CSL shows as zero, with no mention of CSLDA. The portfolio looks a bit sick without it. When will it show up?

The last stock split I had was with Gunns - except that time my holding doubled :eek: until NAB worked it out.

[Judd]

Absolutely amazing. One of the better managed and innovative companies on the ASX which reported today and not a word from the ASF brighter sparks. Dead since October 2007 until this post. What a shame.

I suppose the wanna's are too tied up with perceived gains to be made from properties or resources minnows to care.

[Prospector]

Hey Judd, if you do a track back through this thread, that has been the story of CSL for a long time. Maybe it is too much an ethical share? :D Sometimes seems like I am the only one following it. Yet for me I have held since the price of $37, rose to almost $100, then the split issue. So not only makes you feel good by its benefits to mankind, but has made me some nice money too.
You know, it only prevents cancer, doesnt have any other glitz to it.

[Judd]

So not only makes you feel good by its benefits to mankind, but has made me some nice money too.
You know, it only prevents cancer, doesnt have any other glitz to it.

True on both points. And the blood products it makes and provides are even less glitzier. Strange world.

Also I have read that Gardasil is also effective for older women, so there is another avenue for income for CSL. Mind you, if it were provided to older women, I am sure Family First and others will claim that it will turn these gentle creatures into promiscuous *****s as it already does for "young gels." Like who cares if assists in preventing a truly awful disease.

[michael_selway]

Hey Judd, if you do a track back through this thread, that has been the story of CSL for a long time. Maybe it is too much an ethical share? :D Sometimes seems like I am the only one following it. Yet for me I have held since the price of $37, rose to almost $100, then the split issue. So not only makes you feel good by its benefits to mankind, but has made me some nice money too.
You know, it only prevents cancer, doesnt have any other glitz to it.

Thing is never understimate a biotech, they coudl coem up with new geart medicines & vaccines at any time :)

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 96.8 122.4 159.8 197.3
DPS 34.3 44.0 55.0 70.0

thx

MS

[Knobby22]

A lot of us just sit back smiling and don't feel any need to "push" it.
A beautiful company that can survive and prosper even during major shocks to the economy.

I find it interesting that the buyback may not occur because McNamee is keeping his eye out for a bargain.

[brendan87]

I agree. I look at CSL as a kind of "quiet achiever".

But perhaps the lack of popularity could be due to its 75% fall from grace post-9/11 when it went from market darling, tripling in under 2 years, to dog after the plasma glut in 01/02.

That would have sworn some l-t investors and trader alike off CSL for life, especially given its 'blue-chip' status. Few top 20 companies can boast such as a rapid and severe fall in SP in recent history.

But that's not to rag CSL, I'm a happy holder from $48 (pre-split) so I've doubled my $$ on this beauty! :D

[Gurgler]

This from FN Arena today:

Time For A Pull Back For CSL, Says Tech Wizard
FN Arena News - March 13 2008

The Tech Wizard has noted that shares of CSL (CSL) have held up quite well over the past six months despite all the market turmoil and many an other stock being hammered throughout the market correction. However, the Wizard also believes that the time for a pull back has finally arrived for CSL.


Having spiked above the top Bollinger band twice, forming a so-called Tweezer top candle stick reversal pattern, price action is now at the 20 moving average (M/A) and should continue to hover down to test the lower Bollinger band at $32.00, he says.


The good news is there is good support at $31.00, he says. He doesn't see any reason why that shouldn't hold.


The Tech Wizard has informed us he doesn't own shares in the company.

However I guess we'll just continue the sideways movement of the past 5 months, some more after that!

[nizar]

Hi,

Does anybody have, or know where I could find, an un-adjusted (longterm) chart for this champion?

[Spineli]

Here is a long-term chart incorporating the share split.

Had the share split not occurred, its share price would have been competing with IPL for the highest priced local stock.

[MichaelD]

This from FN Arena today:

Time For A Pull Back For CSL, Says Tech Wizard
FN Arena News - March 13 2008

The Tech Wizard has noted that shares of CSL (CSL) have held up quite well over the past six months despite all the market turmoil and many an other stock being hammered throughout the market correction. However, the Wizard also believes that the time for a pull back has finally arrived for CSL.


Having spiked above the top Bollinger band twice, forming a so-called Tweezer top candle stick reversal pattern, price action is now at the 20 moving average (M/A) and should continue to hover down to test the lower Bollinger band at $32.00, he says.


The good news is there is good support at $31.00, he says. He doesn't see any reason why that shouldn't hold.



Just happened upon this little gem of a quote.


Analysis on 13-Mar-2008 from guru.

- candlestick reversal pattern
- should continue to hover down to test the lower Bollinger band at $32.
- support at $31.


What ACTUALLY happened.

Basically it has gone straight up. The EXACT date of the bottom was in fact the day this analysis was published.


The lesson? Analysts are very good at predicting the past.

[Caliente]

Hi - just got a report from CSL fresh from my broker (ML) [15/07/08].

"Multiple compression accelerated on HPV unwarranted
In the past six weeks CSL has fallen 15.5% with its FY09 PE compressing to
20.9x (from 24.7x) despite a market fall of only 13.8% and comparables such as Baxter and Grifols both gaining 6.9% (PE 18.8x) and 2.1% (PE 27.3x) respectively. As previously highlighted the sensitivity to a HPV low case given recent concern is only -1.3% in FY09. Hence the accelerated compression relative to CSL’s peer group, and that of the market (given CSL’s growth profile), appears to us unwarranted. Buy recommendation and $45.00/ share PO maintained We continue to see upside risk on earnings leverage to new plasma sales, commercialisation of R&D and acquisitive growth opportunities in plasma or immunology. Downside risk is present in currency earnings expectations."

They like it to a price objective of $45 in 12 months.

My strategy is to start diversifying out of the resources game and into good quality defensives. CSL with its strong cash position, expanding profits, and position in healthcare (one of the last areas of economy to be compromised)
fits the bill.

Picked up a 1000 units this morning.

Cheers
-Cali

[michael_selway]

Hi - just got a report from CSL fresh from my broker (ML) [15/07/08].

"Multiple compression accelerated on HPV unwarranted
In the past six weeks CSL has fallen 15.5% with its FY09 PE compressing to
20.9x (from 24.7x) despite a market fall of only 13.8% and comparables such as Baxter and Grifols both gaining 6.9% (PE 18.8x) and 2.1% (PE 27.3x) respectively. As previously highlighted the sensitivity to a HPV low case given recent concern is only -1.3% in FY09. Hence the accelerated compression relative to CSL’s peer group, and that of the market (given CSL’s growth profile), appears to us unwarranted. Buy recommendation and $45.00/ share PO maintained We continue to see upside risk on earnings leverage to new plasma sales, commercialisation of R&D and acquisitive growth opportunities in plasma or immunology. Downside risk is present in currency earnings expectations."

They like it to a price objective of $45 in 12 months.

My strategy is to start diversifying out of the resources game and into good quality defensives. CSL with its strong cash position, expanding profits, and position in healthcare (one of the last areas of economy to be compromised)
fits the bill.

Picked up a 1000 units this morning.

Cheers
-Cali

Yep looks good CSL

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS 96.8 127.7 161.2 200.0
DPS 34.3 48.0 57.0 69.8


thx

MS

[Judd]

Was the result and activity from CSL so ordinary that it does not rate a mention on ASF - apart from this one?

If successful with the purchase it probably will have around 25% of the world's plasma production.

[Knobby22]

Was the result and activity from CSL so ordinary that it does not rate a mention on ASF - apart from this one?

If successful with the purchase it probably will have around 25% of the world's plasma production.

Good buy during high Aussie dollar credit crunch and avoiding the dodgy US stock market.

However... last time McNamee bought big the share price got the wobbles before it recovered. These big investors often don't have enough long term focus.

[Bruza]

Was the result and activity from CSL so ordinary that it does not rate a mention on ASF - apart from this one?

If successful with the purchase it probably will have around 25% of the world's plasma production.

Yes Judd,

I was hoping to find some discussion about the pros & con's re the SPP.

I would be interested to hear of other (average) investor's thoughts on the Plan.

Personally I am considering $3000 worth, as have often thought "I would like
to increase my holdings in this Co.", given the opportunity.

I have given it a through "health test" & it comes out a big winner, also compared to XJO on a percentage basis over the last year, come out way in front.

[mshepherd]

It looks similar to the GDY SPP set-up of a few months ago, i.e. The price held above the SPP price until the day of issue, whereby it fell to about the offer price then gravitated around that price for a while. It has now dropped quite a bit below the SPP, so there is no reason CSL cannot do the exact same thing. Its a great company with great potential, although GDY was the same and also got a huge number of share holders taking up the SPP and also gave out quite a few free options aswell, GDY has since dropped. Yes it seems like a good offer, although there have been others similar (or even more attractive) which have since fallen substantialy.

I wonder if a way to play this would be to wait until after the shares are issued and hope that some are offloaded cheaply? on the other hand CSL's recent aquisition is valuable and the company has a well worn up trend - look at the 5 year chart, also fundamentals of an ageing population may help boost their industry. As like GDY, CSL seem to be amongst the leaders of exciting and promosing technologies, aka zero-emmission energy and biotech.

I think ill once again wait to the last moment before deciding whether to sign up to the SPP. :2twocents

[kennas]

One of just 9 ish companies in the ASX200 to actually be up this year.

Every 1% decline in the AUD adds $6.9m to the bottom line.

With interest rates forecast to be slashed dramatically, means $$ for CSL. Pending US rates of course...

On my close watch list for when (if) the tide turns.

Article on sharecafe (http://www.sharecafe.com.au/article_air.asp?a=AV&ai=10586) for those interested.

[CAB SAV]

One of just 9 ish companies in the ASX200 to actually be up this year.

Every 1% decline in the AUD adds $6.9m to the bottom line.

With interest rates forecast to be slashed dramatically, means $$ for CSL. Pending US rates of course...

On my close watch list for when (if) the tide turns.

Article on sharecafe (http://www.sharecafe.com.au/article_air.asp?a=AV&ai=10586) for those interested.

What you can call a legitimate defensive stock. Has products, some life saving, that will sell regardless of market conditions.

[drlog]

I have been in the share market for about 8 months now - fun times ;)

Anyway, from what I understand, the forecast earnings of CSL have been going UP but the share price has been going DOWN. I don't have that much experience but this doesn't make sense to me!

Oh well, I'll hold, it HAS to go up at some point :cool:

[tcoates]

On the news (Commsec page) for CSL.... at least you have a director buying now. Better than watching a director selling

Tim

[hotbmw]

whats happening to CSL? it was a darling safehaven until the past 2 days? anyone heard anything???????????????

[Prospector]

whats happening to CSL? it was a darling safehaven until the past 2 days? anyone heard anything???????????????

I heard on the radio that after Jan 1 the govt will not be providing free gardasil to girls. From a preventive health aspect this really sucks and from a share market it obviously does too

[hotbmw]

i knew there must have been a reason other than profit taking.

i wonder how much of the annual profits this product wipes out?

[chops_a_must]

I heard on the radio that after Jan 1 the govt will not be providing free gardasil to girls. From a preventive health aspect this really sucks and from a share market it obviously does too
Seriously???

WTF???

And it's not just a preventative health measure for girls either, but obviously the impacts are much greater for them.

I guess with all the data coming out, they either had to extend the free vaccinations to boys as well, or cut them completely.

Still, it seems exceptionally stupid, and with all the money they spend on preventative public health in this area, this is something that does have a material impact. Bizarre. :confused:

But if I had kids, boys or girls, I would pay for it regardless.

[nikemi]

i knew there must have been a reason other than profit taking.

i wonder how much of the annual profits this product wipes out?

According to Business Day on 23 July 2008 Gardisil accounts for around 15% of total earnings.

However the Deparmtne of Health mentions nothing about not funding Gardasil from Jan 09. Their website still says that they are funding it. Go figure?!

[Prospector]

According to Business Day on 23 July 2008 Gardisil accounts for around 15% of total earnings.

However the Deparmtne of Health mentions nothing about not funding Gardasil from Jan 09. Their website still says that they are funding it. Go figure?!
I was shocked too. I am in Tasmania and heard it here. I think it costs over $100 per shot. Will do some googling about it. Seriously stupid if true. Let's hope Tassie got it wrong.

[Gundini]

This is all I could find on Google: November 2006

Prime Minister John Howard yesterday announced schoolgirls will begin being immunised with Gardasil from next April after the government struck a deal with CSL (csl.ASX:Quote,News).

The company has agreed to a 25 per cent cut in its original $600 million asking price for the four-year program, which will now cost $436 million.

At least it says the program is in place until November 2010, or more likely April 2011.

Does sound like nothing in place for a change yet officially, whispers?

Did knock the stock around a bit, bought my second parcel @ $28.

Could not resist!

[Gundini]

i knew there must have been a reason other than profit taking.

i wonder how much of the annual profits this product wipes out?

Thinking more about this:

If the Gov agreed to a deal for a 4 year term, starting April 2007, then it would seem unlikely that events in March 2011 would be affecting the share price now. Besides, what a retraction it would be for the Gov?

Political disaster if you think about it.

More than likely it was short selling, IMO.

After market there was plenty of volume @ $28.11

[chops_a_must]

More than likely it was short selling, IMO.

Ummmm...... wuttttt?????

No way.

If it wasn't this funding retraction, the chart looks like it has been defying gravity for some time.

Largely because of the USD strength. But it looks like the USD is weakening somewhat, and I think that has more to do with it...

I think it will head to 23 or thereabouts, and it might tickle my fancy then.

[Gundini]

Yes, I can see what you mean....

That is good news!

I think the USD will gain in the longer term, and remain the major currency even if good or bad news comes out. The flight to safety on bad news will be supporting this theory IMO.

Also, looking forward to the Aussie being at .98 again. Missed the opportunity last time, but will be prepared for the next!

With the short selling, I think I got confused with TPI... They have really got stuck into this one of late.... But that's for another thread.

[Prospector]

OK, I sent an email to CSL and this was their reply:

Thankyou for your enquiry of CSL. The catch-up program for Gardasil (women aged 13-26) is due to cease on June 30, 2009, although women who have had even just one dose by this time will be able to complete the course of three doses free of charge from their GP. A single cohort of girls aged 12-13 in the first year of secondary school will continue to be vaccinated through the schools program once the catch-up program lapses.


So those of you who have girls, they will continue to receive the vaccination at ages 12 - 13. But older girls/young women won't after June 30 2009 unless they have already started their course. I guess this makes sense, although some people might delay having their girls vaccinated at the ages of 12 because they think this is too young. I am also on a parenting site - I was amazed to read that some women wont get their daughters immunised at this age because of its association with sexual behaviour :banghead:. Might just let them know that if they wait it will cost them.

[mark_au]

So those of you who have girls, they will continue to receive the vaccination at ages 12 - 13. But older girls/young women won't after June 30 2009 unless they have already started their course. I guess this makes sense, although some people might delay having their girls vaccinated at the ages of 12 because they think this is too young. I am also on a parenting site - I was amazed to read that some women wont get their daughters immunised at this age because of its association with sexual behaviour :banghead:. Might just let them know that if they wait it will cost them.

I too am a (new) parent and im shocked and dismayed as the level of ignorance of health issues for children in general..when you read some of the views of parents its had to believe were in 2008 and not the dark ages

[Econinvestor]

I noticed CSL dropped precipitously a few weeks ago to 27ish, but is now up around 33... Two questions: (1) Why did it drop? Was it due to (unwarranted) reports in the UK about gadrisil causing problems? (2) The company has no debt and has a USD revenue stream. Why on earth is it so far below its intrinsic valuation??? :confused:

[Go Nuke]

I know ver VERY little about shorting, but to me CSL after it made a lower high would seem to be a good stock to short.

Would anyone agree or disagree with this and why?

I know its a top teir company, but the sp chart just screams short to me:confused:
Especially if we see it break $28!

[cutz]

I guess charts are open to interpretation, looking at today’s action it looks like CSL may be forming a higher low, just needs some confirmation from MACD.

Therefore the way I see it, shorting CSL could be playing with fire.:2twocents

Any comments from resident Techies ?

[nomore4s]

A bit of volume starting to appear at those lows as well, a sign of strength imo.

Look for signs of strength in weakness and signs of weakness in strength.

I've actually been watching this stock for a while. Wanted to see a retrace to $30.00 and volume come in again and it looks like we have.

Also now looks like a small H&S pattern.

May go lower but I wouldn't be shorting it, too many warnings signs imo.

Might post a chart up tonight if anyone is interested.

[rhen]

US FDA staff backs CSL, GTC blood clot drugs


By Susan Heavey and Lisa Richwine of Reuters

WASHINGTON - Two proposed therapies to treat rare blood disorders appear safe and effective for US approval, including one made from genetically engineered goats, Food and Drug Administration staff reviewers said in documents.

...read on...

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/WRAPUP-2-US-FDA-staff-backs-CSL-GTC-blood-clot-dru-N3NP7?opendocument&src=rss

...hence the jump in price today?

[Knobby22]

[QUOTE=rhen;382991]
WASHINGTON - Two proposed therapies to treat rare blood disorders appear safe and effective for US approval, including one made from genetically engineered goats, QUOTE]

Genetically engineered goats!!
I read a science fiction story where women would rent out one breast to be modified on their body to produce special medicines that could be sold back to the drug company.

It's all coming true!

[hotbmw]

if the US$ severely depreciates in the coming year or so, how much of CSL's income is derived from the US?

Is it significant? 10%? 20%?

I want to invest into CSL but i feel there could be a considerable discount in the near future but im not sure how invested they are to the US$?

Any concerns here by current shareholders?

[rhen]

US FDA staff backs CSL, GTC blood clot drugs


By Susan Heavey and Lisa Richwine of Reuters

WASHINGTON - Two proposed therapies to treat rare blood disorders appear safe and effective for US approval, including one made from genetically engineered goats, Food and Drug Administration staff reviewers said in documents.

...read on...

http://www.businessspectator.com.au/bs.nsf/Article/WRAPUP-2-US-FDA-staff-backs-CSL-GTC-blood-clot-dru-N3NP7?opendocument&src=rss

...hence the jump in price today?

ROCKVILLE, Md., Jan 9 (Reuters) - CSL Ltd's (CSL.AX) experimental treatment for patients with an extremely rare bleeding disorder is safe and effective, a U.S. advisory panel unanimously said on Friday.
http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssHealthcareNews/idUSWBT01036020090109

Hotbmw...yes, very good point, but isn't that why we use charts and a "stop-loss" facility?

[hotbmw]

yes of course but im asking if anyone knows how invested they are in the US?

in my mind there is no doubt the US$ will fall once de leveraging takes place, so im on the sidelines for many months to come i feel but if i knew the approx % in the US i may enter sooner.....

anyone know?

cheers

[Econinvestor]

There is a basic fact about CSL to be aware of. Its products, being serum/theraputic based, vaccines etc (see http://www.csl.com.au/s1/cs/auhq/1187378853158/content/1187378853018/content.htm) are pretty much recession-proof: even a real decline let alone a financial mkts decline has hardly any effect on demand for these items. People get sick at the same rate, possibly higher. And its costs are now lower, due to the word-wide downturn! Therefore, its stock price should not be affected by the current recession: it should be at least 37, which was the average over October and the first half of November last year before investors started panicking. It has little debt, lots of guaranteed revenue.

Also note: In the USA, health stocks are doing well, I think, because the investor population is a lot better informed and more sophisticated than us; they realize these basic facts about health companies. Still, this provides more opportunity for making money here. I am reminded of this particularly when I see postings that give credence to non-scientific chart reading. One may as well gut a cat and look at its entrails :horse:! I'm not complaining, because the chartists here allow people who use logical analysis to make a lot of money. Wait until the chartists/panickers dump on CSL, then buy. I did this when it hit 27, and it since rose 20%.

In answer to concerns about a possible USD decline expressed in this thread, just look back at when AUD was strong and check CSL's stock price. It was averaging above 35 even when the AUD was between 95 and 85 cents...

[rcm617]

yes of course but im asking if anyone knows how invested they are in the US?

in my mind there is no doubt the US$ will fall once de leveraging takes place, so im on the sidelines for many months to come i feel but if i knew the approx % in the US i may enter sooner.....

anyone know?

cheers

Sales FY08

North America 37%
Europe 35%
Australia 16%

If Talecris goes ahead sales in the US would of course go up substantially. Interesting to note that CSL converted the money raised from the equity raising to $US at 87c. I dont think there is to much chance of the $Aus going back up to the levels we saw in early 2008 in a hurry, to do that we would need another resources boom.
I agree with econinvestor that this stock is recessionproof and doesnt deserve to go down with the rest of the market. HY09 results will be boosted by the low level of the $Aus and plasma product prices have still been improving during the half in the US.

[Gundini]

I have held this share from $29, and is now in a tidy profit territory.

It has struggled to bust through the $34 area a few times before, the last on profit taking.

Can any Techies see any reason why it will push through this level now?

I would like to hold them, and lock in $34 as my stop, but it has failed before.

Can you see any momentum building? Seems to be on lowish volume.

[kennas]

I have held this share from $29, and is now in a tidy profit territory.

It has struggled to bust through the $34 area a few times before, the last on profit taking.

Can any Techies see any reason why it will push through this level now?

I would like to hold them, and lock in $34 as my stop, but it has failed before.

Can you see any momentum building? Seems to be on lowish volume.It might not, because it has continued to fail there. Odds are it will again.

I am actually waiting to enter this one.

For me, a break through here is a short term signal, or, if it looks like failing another signal.

Could be an inverse H&S down there too, but the overall market bear is telling me it's not going to work.

Never know though....watch and shoot!

[Gundini]

Yes, very helpful post Kennas, thanks....

Your chart and the trendline says it all.

Might try to lock in a profit this arvo!

Appreciate your wisdom, cheers ;)

[kennas]

Yes, very helpful post Kennas, thanks....

Your chart and the trendline says it all.

Might try to lock in a profit this arvo!

Appreciate your wisdom, cheers ;)It's bound to break through and head to $42 now.

:eek:

But as I said, I'd be watching for a failure or a break through.

BHP chart was looking similar recently and was a potential breakout and clear inverse H&S and then had a false break....

Good luck!

[Gundini]

It's bound to break through and head to $42 now.

:eek:

But as I said, I'd be watching for a failure or a break through.

BHP chart was looking similar recently and was a potential breakout and clear inverse H&S and then had a false break....

Good luck!

Yes, no doubt!

If it hits my sell price, all well and good!

If not, the lap of the Gods we go!

Your post make it an easy and sensible choice really, and profits are not that easy to come by of late...:eek7:

Cheers

[nomore4s]

Yes, very helpful post Kennas, thanks....

Your chart and the trendline says it all.

Might try to lock in a profit this arvo!

Appreciate your wisdom, cheers ;)

A close above $33.75 is a very positive sign, it is actually a close above resistance - would need follow through tomorrow and Friday though.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

A close above $33.75 is a very positive sign, it is actually a close above resistance - would need follow through tomorrow and Friday though.
Yes, today seems bullish but I am clueless as to where it is going. Yesterday setup a nice bearish look but now that seems to have been negated so I'll wait for tomorrow.

[Gundini]

A close above $33.75 is a very positive sign, it is actually a close above resistance - would need follow through tomorrow and Friday though.

Yes, but have sold my holdings and very pleased!

Something about locking in a profit makes me feel good...

Now, I hope it falls off the map :eek:

$33.81 close

[nomore4s]

Snake I agree about it not being sure which way it wants to head atm but I'm already in the trade with CSL and will be adding to it if we get some strong follow through in the next few days.

[rcm617]

Once the results are out it will definately head upwards. Always suprises on the upside and with the lower $aus and favourable market conditions in the blood plasma market this half should be no different.

[nomore4s]

When are the results due?

Couldn't close above $33.70 again:banghead::D. Will see what tomorrow brings, may have to move my stop up now.

[Gundini]

Here are the aftermarket couse of sales:

Can somebody explain the 220K and 295K parcels?

Are they instos buying up the market at best close price with the number of shares available?

Or are they derivatives?


4:22:43 pm 33.800 5,051
4:13:27 pm 33.689 80,437
4:13:16 pm 33.558 220,000
4:12:33 pm 33.436 295,457
4:10:51 pm 33.650 2,003
4:10:51 pm 33.650 832
4:10:51 pm 33.650 3,431
4:10:51 pm

[rcm617]

When are the results due?

Couldn't close above $33.70 again:banghead::D. Will see what tomorrow brings, may have to move my stop up now.

Last year the half year results came out 20th feb so I guess it will be about the same time this year.

[Gundini]

Here are the aftermarket couse of sales:

Can somebody explain the 220K and 295K parcels?

Are they instos buying up the market at best close price with the number of shares available?

Or are they derivatives?


4:22:43 pm 33.800 5,051
4:13:27 pm 33.689 80,437
4:13:16 pm 33.558 220,000
4:12:33 pm 33.436 295,457
4:10:51 pm 33.650 2,003
4:10:51 pm 33.650 832
4:10:51 pm 33.650 3,431
4:10:51 pm


Let me be more precise with my question,

Obviously, the $295 purchase did not cost the buyer $9.75m!

Or did it!

Did they buy all the shares available from the close price: $33.81 to their average purchase price of $33.436 ?

[nomore4s]

Taken off today, still early though. If it can't close above $33.75 today I think that would definately signal time to exit my trade and maybe even to go short :D.

[It's Snake Pliskin]

Taken off today, still early though. If it can't close above $33.75 today I think that would definately signal time to exit my trade and maybe even to go short :D.
Yes, a nice rise today confirming the bullishness with support on the 8th Jan. Now will it hold?

The early shorters would have been roasted by the extent of today's move.

[Econinvestor]

Taken off today, still early though. If it can't close above $33.75 today I think that would definately signal time to exit my trade and maybe even to go short :D.

Sorry to be strident about this BUT:

What on *earth* is the significance of 33.75?? :confused: If there is no negative or positive news about fundamentals of the stock (or concerning other's non-fundamentals-based beliefs), then the movements are just random noise.

In any case, the price at close 35.28 going towards where it should based on logic-- high 30's for the logical reasons given in my last post. I'm holding on until it gets there...

[nomore4s]

Sorry to be strident about this BUT:

What on *earth* is the significance of 33.75?? :confused: If there is no negative or positive news about fundamentals of the stock (or concerning other's non-fundamentals-based beliefs), then the movements are just random noise.

In any case, the price at close 35.28 going towards where it should based on logic-- high 30's for the logical reasons given in my last post. I'm holding on until it gets there...

lol, $33.70 is resistance as per attached chart. And I'll be holding till the high 30's as well if it gets there and even longer if it goes higher than that:)

I'm quite happy trading the noise to make money, alot of fundamentals don't mean anything in the current market, alot of profitable companies being punished for no logical reason atm;)

If you don't respect TA that's fine with me but remember the market can remain illogical longer than you can remain solvent:rolleyes:

[rcm617]

BAX 4Q results out last night up 19%. Most of the profit increase came from their plasma products with a drag from their renal products. Bodes well for CSL results especially with the weak aussie dollar helping.

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090122/earns_baxter_international.html?.v=5

[Dutchy3]

Yes ...

and what chance a nice day tomorrow breaking to (say) 38.50 ....

Then perhaps a weeks run to 41 - 42 ish?

[Knobby22]

I saw in the paper that CSL is now a top 10 Australian company.
I truly wish that it was the only stock I ever invested in this last 5 years as I could have slept better and would have been wealthier.

Congratulations Brian McNamee for turning a sleepy government laboratory into an Aussie top 10 company.

[deadman]

Sold down pretty heavily today:confused: maybe the market knows something i dont. There is a fair bit of jostling in the US pharmaceutical/healthcare market for acquisitions could this have anything to do with it i wonder?

[nomore4s]

Deadman, the whole healthcare sector has copped it where the sun don't shine in the last few weeks. Not sure why most of the companies have released pretty solid results

[skc]

I bought CSL at $35.5 and it went up nicely to $38 against a weak overall market, and look poised to break on the upside. Then thump, thump and thump, it lost over 10% in 3 sessions, hitting my stoploss and turned a nice little profit into a loss.

CSL is one of the most expensive stocks in ASX100 with high PE, although strong profit growth is still being projected. Most analysts seem to like them, and I am also confused as to what changed in the past week or two.

I will probably look for a long re-entry at some stage, given its good fundamentals.

[JTLP]

CSL earnings are impacted by the USD no? I think the AUD has been bouncing around lately...affecting these guys?

Also, CSL went ex div recently no?

DNH

[stevenc]

I bought CSL at $35.5 and it went up nicely to $38 against a weak overall market, and look poised to break on the upside. Then thump, thump and thump, it lost over 10% in 3 sessions, hitting my stoploss and turned a nice little profit into a loss.

CSL is one of the most expensive stocks in ASX100 with high PE, although strong profit growth is still being projected. Most analysts seem to like them, and I am also confused as to what changed in the past week or two.

I will probably look for a long re-entry at some stage, given its good fundamentals.

Seems to be one of those stocks that cycles regularly...buy at around 33 see it get to 37 -38 and sell. I imagine many buyers follow the cycle, I bought in at 29 but this is a keeper stock for me. Kind of annoyed at myself I had a ton of these when they had the share split and had to decide whether to sell these or suncorp to buy a boat I wanted. So I had sold my original holdings of CSL and kept Suncorp :mad: tempted to use my suncorp holdings for the next time I need to go to the toilet.

[waz]

CSL has fallen to $30.50, at which price I bought. A fall of about 20% in the last few days.

I know that that an increasing Au dollar works against it, although the other concern of late has been 'an oversupply of IVIG'. Has anyone seen any reports from where this is coming from????

From what I was aware, CSL has a major marketshare of the IVIG market and there are only a few players that exist. How on earth can there be an oversupply, and by how much. Its not like a GFC will cause less IVIG sales.

Assuming the Au doesnt go above 70 anytime soon, $30 may provide a nice floor for CSL.

I really need to do my research and find out what IVIG is, hehe.

[rick62]

I am another who is puzzled by CSL's downturn in what has been a reasonable week in most other sectors. Is the $USD the factor or are investors just choosing to go elsewhwere? Too hard for me!
Cheers
Rick

[oldblue]

The heavy volumes traded lately suggest to me that a major holder is either selling down or out. If so, it could be for some reason unrelated to CSL so its pointless to try and guess.
Meanwhile, CSL joins my list of interesting stocks awaiting an uptrend in the SP.

:cool:

[Gundini]

I had a nibble today....

Down on a up day, $30 seems a bit of support for now.

This stock seems to go opposite to the market. Contrarian stock.

Bought at $30.28 though trying to pick a bottom.

Happy to hold for the moment. ;)

[waz]

Up a good 3% today.

Looks like CSL was able to hold ground above $30 even though the Au broke well through 70cents.

In the last few days, 3 analysts RBS, Merryl and JP Morgan all maintained their price targets around the $48 mark. Wish I knew what assumed Au value they are using.

FYI: Since March 6th, while the S&P500 has gone up 20%, healthcare sector has only gone up 10%.

Since November low, S&P500 has gone up 9.36% and healthcare has gone up 5.61%

Point being, gap has widened in the last few weeks, will healthcare catch up in the next few weeks? Lets see.

And Im still to work out what IVIG is.

[matty193]

And Im still to work out what IVIG is.

Haha, IV Ig is "intravenous immunoglobulin", which basically is a means of delivering antibodies to people with some immunological and neurological problems.

[skc]

Haha, IV Ig is "intravenous immunoglobulin", which basically is a means of delivering antibodies to people with some immunological and neurological problems.

Armed with that knowledge, go forth and be confident in your trading!!!

That $30 is the most watched level. I got in there at $31. Fingers cross.

[Gundini]

I grabed $30.28.

Did go down under $30 but held.

I am out of here under $30 on this one.

Nice mover, happy to trade with a long term view!

[bleach8]

CSL , share dropped 4% and with a reasonable increasing in volume. Is this mean it will have another few big drops before recover?

[michael_selway]

CSL , share dropped 4% and with a reasonable increasing in volume. Is this mean it will have another few big drops before recover?

Yeah interesting this one

http://www.******************/images/stockpricecharts/600_420/650.jpg

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2008 2009 2010 2011
EPS 126.8 175.6 218.4 258.9
DPS 46.0 61.0 77.0 92.3


thx

MS

[Econinvestor]

It is puzzling why CSL would fall. It has little debt and lots of guaranteed revenue. But then again, it was way lower than it was worth a few months ago (around 29) and went up to 38. I made nearly 30%

CSL's products are pretty much recession-proof: recessions don't stop people getting sick. On top of this, its costs are lower, due to the word-wide downturn. Since it averaged around 37 over October and the first half of November last year (before investors started panicking) it should return to this level again. Nothing has changed to affect its fundamentals that I'm aware of.

I don't think the recent AUD strength is a problem either. CSL was above 35 when AUD was between 95 and 85 cents last year...

I'm buying more in any case.

[Aussiest]

It is my understanding that people turn to biotechs in times of economic downturn, when other stocks go down?

If the market makes a partial recovery, i wonder whether biotech stocks will hold their value :confused:

I am skeptical on this one, but each to their own ;)

[Junior]

My theory is that there has been more of an appetite for risk recently. Hence defensives such as Healthcare have fallen out of favour, funds have moved into financials and miners instead.

[Knobby22]

My theory is that there has been more of an appetite for risk recently. Hence defensives such as Healthcare have fallen out of favour, funds have moved into financials and miners instead.

Pretty true. It's also that though CSL is cheap there are some amazing bargains out there, if the economy improves. CSL will rise in the second wave if the recession is indeed over. I don't think it is yet unfortunately.

[Econinvestor]

My theory is that there has been more of an appetite for risk recently. Hence defensives such as Healthcare have fallen out of favour, funds have moved into financials and miners instead.

That's possible, but the returns on other stocks would have to be huge. For a start, if what you say is true about defensive stocks and if there is another big drop, then CSL will go up quickly. Moreover, if there is a shortage of capital and CSL went down as people shifted into better returning shares, then it is due to go up when other investors enter the market.


Pretty true. It's also that though CSL is cheap there are some amazing bargains out there, if the economy improves. CSL will rise in the second wave if the recession is indeed over. I don't think it is yet unfortunately.

Basically it is a win-win stock to own at this price. Insurance on the downside, and 20% on the upside! What other stock gives you that??

[Julia]

It is puzzling why CSL would fall. It has little debt and lots of guaranteed revenue. But then again, it was way lower than it was worth a few months ago (around 29) and went up to 38. I made nearly 30%

CSL's products are pretty much recession-proof: recessions don't stop people getting sick. On top of this, its costs are lower, due to the word-wide downturn. Since it averaged around 37 over October and the first half of November last year (before investors started panicking) it should return to this level again. Nothing has changed to affect its fundamentals that I'm aware of.

I don't think the recent AUD strength is a problem either. CSL was above 35 when AUD was between 95 and 85 cents last year...

I'm buying more in any case.




That's possible, but the returns on other stocks would have to be huge. For a start, if what you say is true about defensive stocks and if there is another big drop, then CSL will go up quickly.
On what basis are you suggesting this? We have had more than one big drop and CSL hasn't gone up. It has been trading sideways with effectively no real increase in SP for the last 18 months.


Moreover, if there is a shortage of capital and CSL went down as people shifted into better returning shares, then it is due to go up when other investors enter the market.
Why? As above it hasn't done this previously.

Ecoinvestor, your posts appear to be pretty close to pure ramping imo.

With a SP which is not going up, and a paltry 1.7% dividend, I don't know why anyone would buy this, frankly. Yes, I know it's considered by analysts to be a good 'core fundamental stock' but if we have the view that we buy stocks to make money from them, I find it hard to see why you'd buy something which has not experienced any sign of an uptrend for a long time.




Basically it is a win-win stock to own at this price. Insurance on the downside, and 20% on the upside! What other stock gives you that??
More ramping. You have offered no justification for your suggestions.
What 'insurance' is there on the downside? Is CSL somehow protected from the possibility of bad news? '20% on the upside'????? Really? Where do you get this figure?

[Aussiest]

Basically it is a win-win stock to own at this price. Insurance on the downside, and 20% on the upside! What other stock gives you that??

CSL paid $0.43 in dividends last year, and only half of that div was 100% fully franked.

How could that be good value?

CBA paid $2.66 per share in divs last year at an average of around $40.00.

[Econinvestor]

On what basis are you suggesting this? We have had more than one big drop and CSL hasn't gone up. It has been trading sideways with effectively no real increase in SP for the last 18 months.


Why? As above it hasn't done this previously.

Ecoinvestor, your posts appear to be pretty close to pure ramping imo.

With a SP which is not going up, and a paltry 1.7% dividend, I don't know why anyone would buy this, frankly. Yes, I know it's considered by analysts to be a good 'core fundamental stock' but if we have the view that we buy stocks to make money from them, I find it hard to see why you'd buy something which has not experienced any sign of an uptrend for a long time.




More ramping. You have offered no justification for your suggestions.
What 'insurance' is there on the downside? Is CSL somehow protected from the possibility of bad news? '20% on the upside'????? Really? Where do you get this figure?

Tsk, Tsk Tsk! You are W R O N G once more. :headshake

December 11th 08, it was $28.11. Feb 26th 09 it was $38.26. You should check your facts before posting flaming rants, Julia.

I bought at 29, sold at 37. Hmmm, lets see, that's about 30%. I think I'd classify making 30% return in a bit over two months as making money. That's an annual rate of 180%. Or is that not enough for you??

Sour, sour grapes Julia. You were so wrong on CBA now you resort to attack, but don't even bother to check your facts. I'm pretty close to asking the moderator to remove your raving posts. This one is, silly, emotive and plain factually wrong.

I don't see the point in people posting comments like your's above. It is ad hominem nonsense. How about using some reason and logic instead of attacking people's motives?

[carmen]

CSL paid $0.43 in dividends last year, and only half of that div was 100% fully franked.

How could that be good value?

CBA paid $2.66 per share in divs last year at an average of around $40.00.

29374

CSL = 5 years ago, $10,000 would get you 2,000 roughly shares, now @ $31.5, worth $63,000 (500%+ return) or 100% p/a.

CBA = 5 years ago, $10,000 would get you roughly 333 shares, now @ $36 worth $12,000, 20% return, or 4% p/a.

CSL has been one of the best performing shares on ASX over past decade. The premium low yeild is well tolerated because ppl expect growth in earnings will continue. Outlook on banks not as positive given GFC. Both are good stocks to hold for different reasons imo.

Apologies for the crappy looking chart

[bleach8]

the reason for the price deline is due to CSL's major share holder selling its holding from about 11% now about 4.8%. FLC stopped selling in Jan which resulted CSL price increased from 30 to 38. Recently, it started to reduce its holding again. Well, if FLC keep selling at the current speed, its 4.6% holding will disappear in about 2.5 months.
Can someone analyses their short term view on CSL? the price has been around 31-32 for more than a week now ...where will it heading? up or down ?

[Julia]

:headshake

December 11th 08, it was $28.11. Feb 26th 09 it was $38.26. You should check your facts before posting flaming rants, Julia.
Maybe reread my post. I quoted the last eighteen months Of course it's gone up and down during that time. But it has been trading below the MA for most of this time.
See attached screenshot which demonstrates my point.



I bought at 29, sold at 37. Hmmm, lets see, that's about 30%. I think I'd classify making 30% return in a bit over two months as making money. That's an annual rate of 180%. Or is that not enough for you??
Oh dear. You cannot annualise a two month return with any sense of realism, surely! That's just picking out the bits you like? Show me where the stock has at any stage in the last eighteen months shown an annual 180% increase. Remember, my comment related to this last 18 months.




I'm pretty close to asking the moderator to remove your raving posts. This one is, silly, emotive and plain factually wrong.
Please do refer the matter to a moderator. I am very happy to accept the judgement of any moderator.



I don't see the point in people posting comments like your's above. It is ad hominem nonsense. How about using some reason and logic instead of attacking people's motives?
I have stated simple fact. This was in response to your post which had all the qualities of a ramp.
Still waiting for your explanation of the 20% upside for this stock.

[Econinvestor]

Maybe reread my post. I quoted the last eighteen months Of course it's gone up and down during that time. But it has been trading below the MA for most of this time.
See attached screenshot which demonstrates my point.


I have stated simple fact. This was in response to your post which had all the qualities of a ramp.
Still waiting for your explanation of the 20% upside for this stock.

Simple easy maths. It was trading at 37 or so in a stable market last year. It went down to 30 or so recently for no fundamental reason. Here is the calculation:

37 MINUS 30.3 equals 6.7.

6.7 DIVIDED by 30.3 is over 20%.


Also, of course it goes up and down. That's great for making money. When the fundamentals haven't changed, buy when its low sell when it gets back to the fundamentals. This is all I am saying.

I hope you will confine your comments to analysis rather than motives which you know nothing about. Your accusation is offensive and against the rules of this forum, I believe.

[waz]

I have been following CSL daily along with movements in the ASX200 and health indexes from overseas for over a month. What I have noticed is that the biggest influence has been movements in the Au dollar. Even on a intraday basis you can notice it.

If I had the time I would negative correlate the two together with a nice chart.

What I figure, is that if this stock is so correlated to moves in the Au dollar, wouldnt the brilliant management hedge against this??? I would think yes.

Also, CSL can lock in prices for its products whenever it wants to at a time when it is convenient to itself and to maximise profit. Its not like CSL is affected by US dollar denominated spot prices.

The MA chart below is nice, however that statistic doesn't take into account the stock split. Over time the MA line will continue drifting lower, eventually it will trade higher than this line even if it stays steady.

[nomore4s]

Simple easy maths. It was trading at 37 or so in a stable market last year. It went down to 30 or so recently for no fundamental reason. Here is the calculation:

37 MINUS 30.3 equals 6.7.

6.7 DIVIDED by 30.3 is over 20%.


Also, of course it goes up and down. That's great for making money. When the fundamentals haven't changed, buy when its low sell when it gets back to the fundamentals. This is all I am saying.

lol, you have got to be kidding me.

Your valuation is based on nothing more than it was trading at $37 in a "stable market". That has got to be the weakest analysis I've ever seen to establish fair value.

You're naive if you think the fundamentals of any stock haven't changed since we had a "stable market"

What are these fundamentals you keep banging on about? All your posts you rave on about fundamentals but I'm yet to see you post any valid fundamental research.

[bleach8]

the reason for the price deline is due to CSL's major share holder selling its holding from about 11% now about 4.8%. FLC stopped selling in Jan which resulted CSL price increased from 30 to 38. Recently, it started to reduce its holding again. Well, if FLC keep selling at the current speed, its 4.6% holding will disappear in about 2.5 months.
Can someone analyses their short term view on CSL? the price has been around 31-32 for more than a week now ...where will it heading? up or down ?

the reason for the price deline is due to CSL's major share holder selling its holding from about 11% now about 4.8%. FLC stopped selling in Jan which resulted CSL price increased from 30 to 38. Recently, it started to reduce its holding again. Well, if FLC keep selling at the current speed, its 4.6% holding will disappear in about 2.5 months.
Can someone analyses their short term view on CSL? the price has been around 31-32 for more than a week now ...where will it heading? up or down ?
any comment on this!? pls plsplsplsplslpslpslpslpslsplspslpsl

[Julia]

lol, you have got to be kidding me.

Your valuation is based on nothing more than it was trading at $37 in a "stable market". That has got to be the weakest analysis I've ever seen to establish fair value.

You're naive if you think the fundamentals of any stock haven't changed since we had a "stable market"

What are these fundamentals you keep banging on about? All your posts you rave on about fundamentals but I'm yet to see you post any valid fundamental research.
Thank you, nomore4s, for saving me the trouble of pointing out what you have here.
Probably unproductive to engage in discussion with Ecoinvestor.

[Econinvestor]

lol, you have got to be kidding me.

Your valuation is based on nothing more than it was trading at $37 in a "stable market". That has got to be the weakest analysis I've ever seen to establish fair value.

You're naive if you think the fundamentals of any stock haven't changed since we had a "stable market"

What are these fundamentals you keep banging on about? All your posts you rave on about fundamentals but I'm yet to see you post any valid fundamental research.

Go back and look at the share price last year, before the crash and panic. Its share price was trading at around the level 37 for many months. That is what I mean by stable. The simple idea you are failing to grasp is that of a market having a long period in which the participants can judge the company, thus establishing a benchmark value. Now, since

1. Demand for their product is, if anything, higher in a recession
2. Input costs have fallen
3. They have low debt
4. They have fixed contracts for supply.


This means that nothing in the market has changed *for that company in particular*. Ergo, it will go back to around 37, unless there is a company specific shock such as class action lawsuits, etc.

In any case, I've done well on CSL, CBA and CTX based on exactly this reasoning and am sharing my opinion on CSL in this forum. If you don't agree with the analysis, that's fine, its your money.

[Econinvestor]

Thank you, nomore4s, for saving me the trouble of pointing out what you have here.
Probably unproductive to engage in discussion with Ecoinvestor.

Probably unproductive to engage in discussions when your arguments are bereft of logic or reason, you mean. What was it you said about CBA? Its now around $37 just as I predicted based on fundamentals. You said to post in six months, but I think it only took 2 months for it to get to that level.

Put your money where your mouth is, and tell us where you think things are headed and why. That's what this forum is about, not sniping.

And I'd be perfectly happy if you didn't comment on my posts as you have so far little to contribute but attacks based on your imagination about others motives.

[nomore4s]

Probably unproductive to engage in discussions when your arguments are bereft of logic or reason, you mean. What was it you said about CBA? Its now around $37 just as I predicted based on fundamentals. You said to post in six months, but I think it only took 2 months for it to get to that level.

Put your money where your mouth is, and tell us where you think things are headed and why. That's what this forum is about, not sniping.

And I'd be perfectly happy if you didn't comment on my posts as you have so far little to contribute but attacks based on your imagination about others motives.

Um, whos imagination is getting away from them? I suggest you go back and read the CBA thread - it wasn't Julia that told you to post in six months it was juw177.

If you are going to get on your high horse at least get your facts straight.

[Econinvestor]

Um, whos imagination is getting away from them? I suggest you go back and read the CBA thread - it wasn't Julia that told you to post in six months it was juw177.

If you are going to get on your high horse at least get your facts straight.

Thanks for the information. I'll remind juw177 instead. But I think facts about posters with the same name are pretty trivial compared with facts about the market, which is whole reason for this forum.

[rcm617]

the reason for the price deline is due to CSL's major share holder selling its holding from about 11% now about 4.8%. FLC stopped selling in Jan which resulted CSL price increased from 30 to 38. Recently, it started to reduce its holding again. Well, if FLC keep selling at the current speed, its 4.6% holding will disappear in about 2.5 months.
Can someone analyses their short term view on CSL? the price has been around 31-32 for more than a week now ...where will it heading? up or down ?
any comment on this!? pls plsplsplsplslpslpslpslpslsplspslpsl

Agree with you bleach that FLR selling out is the main reason for CSL being in this price range. CSL is one of the few true growth stocks in the ASX, having grown EPS at 50 and 34 % in the last two financial years. It is bound to slow down a little in this sort of climate, but even half this growth would more than justify present prices. IVIG prices in the USA are still firming and this provides 43% of CSL's revenue. Top notch management. Certainly a lot more risky to be in the banks if our house prices start taking more of a dive with rising unemployment.

[Prospector]

A quick read back through this thread will indicate my interest in CSL from a number of years ago. In 2005 primarily because of the 'upside' for CSL in developing a bird flu vaccine. I bought 100 for $39. The share price stayed constant for a while, until at its peak climbing to $90; it was a race to see which share - RIO, MBL, CSL and Incitec Pivot :confused: would reach $100. Eventually however, the share was spilt into 3; taking us back to $30 a share, but now owning three times the number.

I sat on CSL, enjoying the ride, until December last year. When I sold for a tidy profit. Why? The excitement over the Gardasil had waned, Bird Flu was off the Agenda and the SP had just started trailing down. For no other particular reason. I didnt, and still dont, see any upside for quite some time. I believe it has run its course.

Just my :2twocents

[rhen]

the reason for the price deline is due to CSL's major share holder selling its holding from about 11% now about 4.8%. FLC stopped selling in Jan which resulted CSL price increased from 30 to 38. Recently, it started to reduce its holding again. Well, if FLC keep selling at the current speed, its 4.6% holding will disappear in about 2.5 months.
Can someone analyses their short term view on CSL? the price has been around 31-32 for more than a week now ...where will it heading? up or down ?

Looking at a monthly chart (and considering indicators not shown), I am not overly optimistic on CSL making new highs over time. For instance, look at the volume and the price movements of late.
The daily chart however looks better suggesting short trades may be positive...though I think I can find better shares to do so.
I hope everybody remains cautious in this potential boomlet.

[kennas]

I think facts about posters with the same name are pretty trivial compared with facts about the market, which is whole reason for this forum.Huh? :confused:

Anyone get the gist of this?

Which posters have the same name?

And what facts about the market?

That CSL was $XX once, so it should go back there? That's the fundamental analysis?

:confused:

And I think you should properly appologise to Julia for accusing her of something she did not say regarding CBA.

Thanks.

[Prospector]

Huh? :confused:
Anyone get the gist of this? Which posters have the same name? And what facts about the market?
That CSL was $XX once, so it should go back there? That's the fundamental analysis? :confused:
And I think you should properly appologise to Julia for accusing her of something she did not say regarding CBA.
Thanks.

Hear Hear Kennas. I think Econinvestor has not only provided insufficent analysis of his claims, but then bags those who have. Let alone accuse Julia of something she didnt even say as a support to their claims, then refuse to properly apologise for their accusation when it is pointed out to them. Julia has her dog as her Avatar; get the names mixed? Well maybe, but actually, the names arent even close! Avatars tend to stick! Probably not a great way to start as a new Poster.

[bleach8]

Will the new swine flu have any positive impact on CSL?

I thought they had something about the bird flu...

[Prospector]

Possibly, and BTA as well. Both are involved; CSL has a flu vaccine, BTA has the treatment drug. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. The impact of this latest issue, and the human to human transmission, along with the Global Financial Crisis is actually really scary.

[drlog]

Possibly, and BTA as well. Both are involved; CSL has a flu vaccine, BTA has the treatment drug. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow. The impact of this latest issue, and the human to human transmission, along with the Global Financial Crisis is actually really scary.

Add in global warming, Somali pirates and the Taliban taking control of Pakistan. YAY, now we are all afraid! :D

Anyway, back to CSL. From what I can see, they have been growing consistently in the past few years. They have good forecast growth, their fundamentals look good (Quick ratio, current ratio). Their PEG is 0.64 at the moment!

It doesn't make sense? The company is worth more than the current share price! They are currently growing so why isn't the share price growing as well? I am holding for sure. If I had any money lying around, I would buy more at the current bargain price :sly:

Cool

[waz]

Massive price fall today on pretty big volume.
Ive seen spreads as wide as 60c this morning.

Its now fallen 10% in a few days.
Since Im expecting the Au to fall in the next few days, Im going long again on this one. May get myself a nice spread.

oops. just got closed, 50c movment in about 10 mins. horay for volatility.

I better do some charting before getting on it again. It hit a low of 31.11 this morning.

EDIT:
Now suspended, someone knows something, nothing official yet.

[Prospector]

I received this alert today:
"Proposed Acquisition of Talecris" I know nothing more but it is considered as price sensitive. Received it at 10.32

[carmen]

This one is looking like a very juicy short. I am looking to put the short on at about the red dot. (after failed rally to $33) $32.10-$31.90. What do you think?

30304

[skc]

This one is looking like a very juicy short. I am looking to put the short on at about the red dot. (after failed rally to $33) $32.10-$31.90. What do you think?

30304

Is it going to get to your price? Where would you place your stop loss? Would you add to your position on break below $30? What would be a profit target, or you would just trail a stop?

Just something to consider. Good luck with the trade.

[bleach8]

You are very brave to go short for CSL. The price of CSL is under pressure as a result of the potential FTC’s decision on the acquisition of Talecris. 75% of experts expect the deal will go through some ways, as a matter of how and when. The price for CSL(At current price of 31.5) will go up regardless of the decision from FTC.

If the deal get approve, the target price will be above $40.
If the deal get rejected, CSL will conduct a share buyback using its 1.6billion cash reserve. The buyback will increase CSL’s EPS by about 6% even at a price of $36 per share.

Either way the price will go up. I got the above info from some articles of RBS. I am not saying I am right, but all other institutional investors can obvious see this logic. Soon or later, they will start to buy CSL.

Also, from today’s chart, reasonable large volumes are appeared to push the price up 1 hour before the market close which can be a positive sign for Monday. Maybe there are reasons to go short from technical point of view, but overall I think it will be too risky to go short.

[Aussiest]

Maybe there are reasons to go short from technical point of view

Good point about technicals. If you had taken any long position this week based on technicals alone, you would have been stopped out (if had tight stops). Why? News and sentiment.

I am short CSL, but also long. Price looked shakey. Should have closed out my short, but i think possiblity for down still there. Not too worried about going long as i think it will rise in time.

[skc]

I am short CSL, but also long. Price looked shakey. Should have closed out my short, but i think possiblity for down still there. Not too worried about going long as i think it will rise in time.

Please explain :confused: *With Paulin Hanson tone* :)

Do you have a separate long investment holding vs a trading short?

[Nero64]

CSL is a defensive stock. It will usually hold its ground in a down market. It did well to come of its low on Friday and held up well the day before when the market fell 3%

Good luck with the short but I think your barking up the wrong tree. Then again QBE fell $6-7 a few months ago and sometime the best trades are against the consensus. However sell the weak and buy the strong come to mind when I think of CSL. Just to note PRY, HSP, COH and SHL did well last week and CSL only lost 6c. What bleach8 said is probably correct. The market dislikes uncertainty.

[Knobby22]

I agree with Nero and bleach but however am hoping CSL will drop with the continuation of the bear market. In fact I have set aside some money to buy when this occurs.
I'm not game to short them though.

[carmen]

Is it going to get to your price? Where would you place your stop loss? Would you add to your position on break below $30? What would be a profit target, or you would just trail a stop?

Just something to consider. Good luck with the trade.

No idea how its going to play out (could end ugly :eek:). Signal I am looking for is a couple of weak closes above $32.75 ($34.75 would be perfect) and a drift towards $34/$35 over 1-2 weeks. Target $0? Is that possible?

[carmen]

CSL is a defensive stock. It will usually hold its ground in a down market. It did well to come of its low on Friday and held up well the day before when the market fell 3%

Good luck with the short but I think your barking up the wrong tree. Then again QBE fell $6-7 a few months ago and sometime the best trades are against the consensus. However sell the weak and buy the strong come to mind when I think of CSL. Just to note PRY, HSP, COH and SHL did well last week and CSL only lost 6c. What bleach8 said is probably correct. The market dislikes uncertainty.

I like CSL long term - own it in my superfund, so have noticed how weak its been lately. Fundamentally to get a P/E 20 in a bear market i think you'd have to be doing something exciting, ecspecially when there are soo many dogs running around at 5x. Thats just my thoughts, thanks :)

[Aussiest]

Please explain :confused: *With Paulin Hanson tone* :)

Do you have a separate long investment holding vs a trading short?

Please explain? I can't, it was a messy trade. The sloppiest thing i have done in a while. Am hoping it will dip down soon so i can get rid of it. Price dipped a bit today, so hopefully will continue down to 31ish.

I will add to my long position if it dips down anyway.

Hopefully i'll come out of it without too much damage.

[Nero64]

No idea how its going to play out (could end ugly ). Signal I am looking for is a couple of weak closes above $32.75 ($34.75 would be perfect) and a drift towards $34/$35 over 1-2 weeks. Target $0? Is that possible?

Your post in this thread is a G up right? You got a reaction out of us. But hey your weak closes above $32 is a good call. I see the same thing. There is a gap at $33.30 that needs to be filled. It's funny, but hey anything is possible in the markets. Considering CSL has 2.7Bill in cash and debts of around 2Bill, I don't think it is getting to $0 unless the need for research into blood plasma goes.

[Trevor_S]

With a SP which is not going up, and a paltry 1.7% dividend, I don't know why anyone would buy this, frankly.

I am with Julia on this one, I have been looking at CSL for some time wonder why the hell people are buying it, I see no real value at current prices ?


Yes, I know it's considered by analysts to be a good 'core fundamental stock'

Which is why I keep looking but then keep assuring myself these guys have NFI what they are talking about and are regurgitating some party line, making a self full filling prophecy. I will leave it alone and leave it to the day traders, unless it reprices to reflect my idea of value.

[questionall_42]

Will be interesting to see how the CSL sp plays out given Talecris has been by US FTC.

1111 [Dow Jones] CSL (CSL.AU) down 1.7% at A$30.38, bounces from 2-month low of A$29.94, despite confirmation that U.S. FTC is taking action to block Talecris takeover. Some traders expecting CSL to hit A$29.00 on this news, but they note the market has recently become less confident of a deal. Speculation of significant FTC hurdles first emerged on May 7, pushing CSL down from A$33.50 the day before. UBS head of Sydney sales trading George Kanaan says today's news may have limited impact because hope of a deal had already cooled and because CSL could do a share buyback. "In a week's time, the market probably won't care about it because they will be able to do a buyback which would be quite accretive at these levels.". CSL chart support currently A$30.00, A$26.85. Resistance A$32.01, A$35.07, according to Dow Jones Newswires technical analysis. (DWR)

[So_Cynical]

I got in at the open today 30.20...funny cos i didn't give myself much hope
of getting my low ball buy order filled when i decided to have a go at CSL
late last nite.

I could care less whether the take over goes ahead or not....under 30.50
was my buy zone, happy to hold till im in profit.



I am with Julia on this one, I have been looking at CSL for some time wonder
why the hell people are buying it, I see no real value at current prices ?

Don't know how u can look at this chart and say that :dunno:...unarguably buying
CSL at under 30.50 has been great buying over the last 7 months.

[Nero64]

This stock is tracking the Aussie Dollar. It's weak as the Aus $ rises because it does most of its business in US dollars. Makes a good hedging stock against the Aussie dollar weakness as it will rise.

See chart

[Aussiest]

I got in at the open today 30.20...funny cos i didn't give myself much hope
of getting my low ball buy order filled when i decided to have a go at CSL
late last nite.

I could care less whether the take over goes ahead or not....under 30.50
was my buy zone, happy to hold till im in profit.



Don't know how u can look at this chart and say that :dunno:...unarguably buying
CSL at under 30.50 has been great buying over the last 7 months.

Look, i bought in at over $31.00 and am happy to hold (sort of, if you know what i mean!!). I think you did well...

[So_Cynical]

This stock is tracking the Aussie Dollar. It's weak as the Aus $ rises
because it does most of its business in US dollars.

Have to admit u don't know that much about CSL...for a change i just really liked the
chart, serves me right as im usually a nut for the fundamentals.


Look, i bought in at over $31.00 and am happy to hold (sort of,
if you know what i mean!!). I think you did well...

Would of done better waiting for today...still i keep telling myself u just cant get the perfect
entry or exit...just concentrate on the percentages, don't worry about the small stuff.

[Nero64]

Have to admit u don't know that much about CSL

My chart tells it like it is. If you can't see a pattern then maybe your missing something. Its does a lot of its business in US dollars so don't you think its bottom line would take a hit if the USD went south. None of us work for this company or put together its balance sheets or do the company deals, so none of us really know about this company.

[haunting]

Been trading this one for quite a while. My 2c at this juncture.

Point 1 - I take that to reflect weakness where buyers were easily overcome by selling at or near the lower trend line

Point 2 - RSI likewise is showing weak momentum

Point 3 - 2 days of high vol spike may kill the downward move, watch the rebound strength, this could present a short term trading opportunity. But with the price dipping over the red support line, the prognosis at this point is the selling momentum is likely to continue, probably due to shorting. See this: http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt.

If the rebound does not materialise, my next move would be to watch the next two lower targets of 28.26 and 24.70 - this would depend a lot on what CSL management is telling the instos with regard to their growth strategy without Talecris, and the treatment with the US$3.1b cash pile.

Operation wise, with the US$ potentially heading towards 76, CSL's profit will be affected as highlighted here: http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=7A60F50B-1871-E587-E1AF1D5B4A74A1D5, possibly worse if the US$ were to decline further from the current level.

[So_Cynical]

My chart tells it like it is. If you can't see a pattern then maybe your missing something. Its does a lot of its business in US dollars so don't you think its bottom line would take a hit if the USD went south. None of us work for this company or put together its balance sheets or do the company deals, so none of us really know about this company.

Sorry Nero small typo on my part...meant to say "i don't know much about CSL"
your USD chart makes perfect sense.

[Aussiest]

Been trading this one for quite a while. My 2c at this juncture.

Point 1 - I take that to reflect weakness where buyers were easily overcome by selling at or near the lower trend line

Point 2 - RSI likewise is showing weak momentum

Point 3 - 2 days of high vol spike may kill the downward move, watch the rebound strength, this could present a short term trading opportunity. But with the price dipping over the red support line, the prognosis at this point is the selling momentum is likely to continue, probably due to shorting. See this: http://www.asx.com.au/data/Shortsell.txt.

If the rebound does not materialise, my next move would be to watch the next two lower targets of 28.26 and 24.70 - this would depend a lot on what CSL management is telling the instos with regard to their growth strategy without Talecris, and the treatment with the US$3.1b cash pile.

Operation wise, with the US$ potentially heading towards 76, CSL's profit will be affected as highlighted here: http://www.fnarena.com/index2.cfm?type=dsp_newsitem&n=7A60F50B-1871-E587-E1AF1D5B4A74A1D5, possibly worse if the US$ were to decline further from the current level.

Yeah, it's not looking good. Big selling pressure today. Weak support at $30, not sure whether it will hold. My thought is that it will fall through $30.00. Not so good for me, but okay for Cynical_guy. I wouldn't be worrying about it if i had bought at $30.00. I'm going to hold. Nothing to lose.

[carmen]

Your post in this thread is a G up right? You got a reaction out of us. But hey your weak closes above $32 is a good call. I see the same thing. There is a gap at $33.30 that needs to be filled. It's funny, but hey anything is possible in the markets. Considering CSL has 2.7Bill in cash and debts of around 2Bill, I don't think it is getting to $0 unless the need for research into blood plasma goes.

Hehe $0 was bit of a joke. But anyway you look at its chart, every indicator, every analysis its a screaming sell. Might look good at a buy at $15.

[So_Cynical]

But anyway you look at its chart, every indicator, every analysis
its a screaming sell. Might look good at a buy at $15.

Not so


http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=13026

QUOTE:
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch had yet to update its views on CSL (CSL) after it became
apparent the company's proposed acquisition of Talecris in the US would not be approved
by regulators. The broker has now rectified the situation, with the good news for shareholders
being BA-ML still considers the stock to be a Buy.

Post the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch result, the FNArena database shows CSL rated as
Buy seven times and Hold twice

Or try this analysis

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=817693

[ROE]

Not so


http://www.sharecafe.com.au/fnarena_news.asp?a=AV&ai=13026

QUOTE:
Bank of America-Merrill Lynch had yet to update its views on CSL (CSL) after it became
apparent the company's proposed acquisition of Talecris in the US would not be approved
by regulators. The broker has now rectified the situation, with the good news for shareholders
being BA-ML still considers the stock to be a Buy.

Post the Bank of America-Merrill Lynch result, the FNArena database shows CSL rated as
Buy seven times and Hold twice

Or try this analysis

http://money.ninemsn.com.au/article.aspx?id=817693

How many time the broker or analyst got it badly wrong?

You should look at how analyst work, they are a bunch of sheep
that follow a bunch of calculators and a bunch of rules
for the firm they working for.

Most of them doesn't have an in depth knowledge on the business
because they cover so many stocks and they have so little time
to do anything else.

They rarely write anything negative for a big firm fearful
their job maybe at risk.

Look at the guy that wrote about article on Asciano sometimes ago
regarding their debt is much greater than their asset and the stock is pretty much worthless

he got the sack.....doesn't matter how they spin it that they close
down the infrastructure division and has to let him go etc...
if you are a good employee why don't they re-deploy him else where in that massive firm?

I like CSL and I like their business and I like to own it some day at the right price
just be careful on analyst recommendation on a certain price.

I usually find it's better to buy when Analyst are fearful and disown the stock than to buy when they are cheerful :D

[skc]

Fundamentally, CSL has always been one of the more expensive ones on the market because of its growth prospects. If the growth prospect is deemed unattainable, a re rating (through lower PE ratio) may result. Current PE ~19.4, EPS ~$1.50.

They do have $2.5B cash lying around not earning anything - that is $4.10 a share. Assuming they return this, then the current PE is only ~16.5. So the current price looks reasonable to me from a fundamental point of view.

A H&S with neckline at $30 has formed, which put a price target of ~$25 (funny enough, the post capital return price!). A nice battle being fought out at $29 at the moment. If that holds, then a tiny rebound to neckline is possible.

[Nero64]

Hehe $0 was bit of a joke. But anyway you look at its chart, every indicator, every analysis its a screaming sell. Might look good at a buy at $15.

Yes a good contrarian trade. I try and stick to buying companies with strong balance sheets and sometimes ignore the technicals at my own peril. I saw support around the $31 mark and just went for it. To me it looks better than QBE, another good performing stock over the last 5-10 years. COH is outperforming them both.

I can't see anything stopping the price slide if the US Market keeps falling and the AUS $ rising. Still there a buyers on the sidelines and if and when they choose the moment then it might get a good $4-5 bounce.

Yeah I agree with ROE comments on analysts, but people still listen to them.

Maybe CSL can invest its cash in some Uranium and CSG assets and make me a happy man...yeah right!

[Julia]

I haven't followed CSL for many months but was interested to hear on tonight's news that they have a vaccine for the dreaded swine flu. It still has to undergo clinical trials and get TGA approval, at least three months.
Should surely have a positive effect on the SP unless it's assumed the pig flu will be all over by the time the vaccine is marketable.

[alex90]

Yeah I also saw that on the news. However CSL expect to release it after the flu season so doubt it will have any immediate effect on sp :banghead:

[So_Cynical]

Yeah I also saw that on the news. However CSL expect to release it after the flu season so doubt it will have any immediate effect on sp :banghead:



The drugmaker expects the first batch of its swine flu vaccine to be available in late July or early August, CSL said on its Web site.

http://bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601124&sid=au.0.96Ap54Q&refer=home

After the flu season...since when has August (end of winter) not been flu season, anyway
the bigger markets in the northern hemisphere will be just starting there flu season.

Still lots to like about CSL

[Real1ty]

The market didn't like it yesterday when CSL announced it was going to contest the decision to oppose the proposed take over and the sp tanked immediately after the announcement, after it had started to rebound.

This will help sentiment.

http://imagesignal.comsec.com.au/asxdata/20090529/pdf/00956856.pdf


CSL Receives USD180 million (approximately AUD230 million) Order from U.S. Government to Produce Novel Influenza A (H1N1) Vaccine

[stevenc]

Gday everyone, I see reports saying that if the Talecris deal falls through overall it is still not a bad thing and possibly CSL will do a share buy back. Ok as I am an amateur re share market what does this mean. My thoughts have been

1. Offer existing shareholders opportunity to buy shares at lower price.
2. CSL decreases amount of shares registered increasing value of our existing shares.
3. Do existing shareholders get a cash payment dependant of quantity of shares.

I have no idea but appreciate some info.

Thanks

[cutz]

The company buys back its own shares, and then those shares are cancelled decreasing the amount of shares on issue. Effectively the opposite of the dilution effect that happens with new issues or DRP.

[haunting]

Been trading this one for quite a while. My 2c at this juncture...

A follow up.

Point 1 - a good enough candle reversal signal at this point
Point 2 - and it comes with a good volume
Point 3 - plus it rebounds right at the short term channel failure target

I think it's good enough to assume the selling is over at this point. Time to buy if you are brave (I did). The resistance at 30 will be a good test to find out if the rally really has legs.

News wise, CSL is going to fight its case for Talecris, which could take months(?), the growth strategy thru' Talecris is not dead at this point. Most share holders would probably prefer to hold on and adopt a wait and see attitude(?) In addition, the US and the Aussie orders of swine flu shots are both positive to the bottom line. These should help with the rebound. I hope. :)

[Nero64]

I think it's good enough to assume the selling is over at this point. Time to buy if you are brave (I did). The resistance at 30 will be a good test to find out if the rally really has legs.


Yeah that's what I call absorption buying. 13Mill on the volume. Almost 80c from its low.

I'm game to go long. Will use a stop loss this time. Don't want to be trapped on the downside if things go wrong.

[sqwark7600]

I'm game to go long. Will use a stop loss this time. Don't want to be trapped on the downside if things go wrong.
From the other side of the fence I think it is just a tad early with two EW 3rd wave correctives converging around the $27 mark. The FTC driblings are not helping and it will take some time (Oct-Nov09) for their stupidity to be made lucid before the law; in the meantime marking time allows the market a breath to choose their lead.
:sheep:
My opinion; your call. Life is your decisions in action.

[ROE]

Gday everyone, I see reports saying that if the Talecris deal falls through overall it is still not a bad thing and possibly CSL will do a share buy back. Ok as I am an amateur re share market what does this mean. My thoughts have been

1. Offer existing shareholders opportunity to buy shares at lower price.
2. CSL decreases amount of shares registered increasing value of our existing shares.
3. Do existing shareholders get a cash payment dependant of quantity of shares.

I have no idea but appreciate some info.

Thanks

here is another way to look at it.
say you own a business called CSL with 10 partners
2 partners want out so the other 8 buy them out (shares buy back)
next year the 8 partners increase their stake in the business and you have a greater share of the profit

[stevenc]

Thanks Roe and Cutz for the explanations, doesnt look bad either way I suppose if the deal with Talecris goes ahead or not as a shareholder. For long term shareholders the Talecris deal probably would be the better option I imagine sounds like there is a lot upside for the deal to go ahead, just have to wait and see now if CSL can convince the FTC .

[skc]

Bad news for CSL...

http://business.smh.com.au/business/us-alleges-cartel-behaviour-at-csl-20090529-bqbu.html


And some good news....

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/apps/previewDocument.ac?sy=smh&ss=SMH&docID=GCA00956856CSL&backTo%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fmarkets.smh.com.au%2Fapps%2F qt%2Fquote.ac%3Fcode%3Dcsl%26submit%3DGo

[ROE]

Bad news for CSL...

http://business.smh.com.au/business/us-alleges-cartel-behaviour-at-csl-20090529-bqbu.html


And some good news....

http://newsstore.fairfax.com.au/apps/previewDocument.ac?sy=smh&ss=SMH&docID=GCA00956856CSL&backTo%3Dhttp%3A%2F%2Fmarkets.smh.com.au%2Fapps%2F qt%2Fquote.ac%3Fcode%3Dcsl%26submit%3DGo

Americans are very dirty business people, they want to go into other country and snapped up other people business, yet when anyone else comes to their country and snapped up their business they create all sort of issues and accusation for the company involve...look at ALL and COH as an example
great company only to get bull**** around in the US by their dirty tactics.

CSL look like to be the next target..... As an adopted Australian I feel discussed by the American treatment of Great Aussie company...Buy Aussies stock
support Aussie company :D and take the fight to them... they soon bankrupt as a country anyway so we may get them cheap :D

PS I dont own CSL, its a wonderful business but only when it trades at bargain price then I have a bit of this business.

[Nero64]

From the other side of the fence I think it is just a tad early with two EW 3rd wave correctives converging around the $27 mark.

Yes I can see your point. Corrective wave 3 starting in March. You could be right. May get down to $24 or lower. I'll be out before then though.

Today was a weakish thrust on lower volume. People exiting before the close. The daily Candle is like a hanging uncertain Doji. Tomorrow is a new day. See what happens.

[sqwark7600]

A good summary of the situation in The Australian this morning.

http://www.theaustralian.news.com.au/business/story/0,28124,25565693-5018014,00.html
:sheep:

[haunting]

FTC, from memory seems to have a good record in blocking M&A and winning them. The chance of CSL winning this case I believe is quite slim, so it will be big negative on the stock since there's a break fee of 70 million. If they win, the stock price won't go beyond 35 since there's still plenty of work ahead. If they lose, well, it will be 70 + all the legal costs. :(

[sqwark7600]

FTC, from memory seems to have a good record in blocking M&A and winning them. The chance of CSL winning this case I believe is quite slim, so it will be big negative on the stock since there's a break fee of 70 million. If they win, the stock price won't go beyond 35 since there's still plenty of work ahead. If they lose, well, it will be 70 + all the legal costs. :(
Personally I think the probability of a government instrumentality (FTC) getting it wrong has got to be a safe bet. Their "block" has to be tested in the court. Whilst the beaurocrats can hide behind rhetoric they still have to sell the funding of a vigorous court case to the Commissioners and then come up with strong arguments to beat the past precedents on which CSL are assured they can rely.

[bleach8]

FTC, from memory seems to have a good record in blocking M&A and winning them. The chance of CSL winning this case I believe is quite slim, so it will be big negative on the stock since there's a break fee of 70 million. If they win, the stock price won't go beyond 35 since there's still plenty of work ahead. If they lose, well, it will be 70 + all the legal costs. :(

70m for CSL is not a big deal. 2 billion in the bank- interest at 5% = 50m
2 billion converted to USD last year above 90c, convert back to AUD now would be at least 150m profit.

some people estimate CSL will be 150m-200m better off after deduct all the costs.

i predict the sp will rise to 38 before the release of their annual report.

[sqwark7600]

CSL will be 150m-200m better off after deduct all the costs.

i predict the sp will rise to 38 before the release of their annual report.

There is no point to prediction. Tossing a coin is easier. This game is about probability not prediction.

[haunting]

A follow up...

More follow up. (This line is to fill up this message with more than 100 chars, sorry if I have wasted your time and your bandwidth)

[sqwark7600]

I'm lost on CSL's open buy-back announcement coincident to their throwing in the towel on the Talecris deal. If market price remains greater than $29, as it is, why would anyone sell their shares back to CSL any lower? To my mind all that it seems to accomplish is place a market stop loss on the price until the offer expires. Methinks it may be a ploy along with the other CSL spin released today to keep a floor under their share price until the dust settles.

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/090608/2/26rwf.html

Anyone?

[bongcso]

I'm lost on CSL's open buy-back announcement coincident to their throwing in the towel on the Talecris deal. If market price remains greater than $29, as it is, why would anyone sell their shares back to CSL any lower? To my mind all that it seems to accomplish is place a market stop loss on the price until the offer expires. Methinks it may be a ploy along with the other CSL spin released today to keep a floor under their share price until the dust settles.

http://au.biz.yahoo.com/090608/2/26rwf.html

Anyone?

I don't think there is any sinister ploy involved in the buyback. Last Friday's closing price of 28.98 was used to estimate what the buyback would cost. CSL is trying to return to shareholders the money it raised for the Talecris acquisition which it now does not need. However, they are restricted by ASX to buying back a maximum of 9% of shares in a 12 month period which translates to 54,863,000 shares. However, they will buy back at market price over a period starting from 23 June 2009. You can look at the announcement on the CSL website for more details on the buyback.
http://www.csl.com.au/s1/cs/auhq/1187378853231/news/1242703993084/prdetail.htm

Hope this helps :)

Christina
http://sli-smsf.com/

[haunting]

Methinks it may be a ploy along with the other CSL spin released today to keep a floor under their share price until the dust settles.

I am with you on this. It serves two purposes by this action: a) it provides a bottom to the share price at 29.00 (until the buyback scheme ends); b) they get to keep some of the fund through the scheme before the market demands them to return all of it since the takeover is now off the card.

Longer term, investor should ask CSL's management on their growth strategy. At this point, it seems there is none. Without a good growth strategy and with a comparatively high PE against the sector, CSL will be facing pressure in justifying the share price at the current level. In one of the news reports, an analyst was saying CSL is looking pricey and the sector it is in looking like a maturing sector.

Until it can provide some kind of long term direction and good plan, I am still of the opinion that CSL at the current price is only good for a trade.

[Faithinchartz]

Until it can provide some kind of long term direction and good plan, I am still of the opinion that CSL at the current price is only good for a trade.

Hmmm. What about the fact is has no debt, has long term supply contracts for plasma products, is one of a few companies that provides such and so has market power. In addition, what about the fact that CSL is one of only two companies in the world with substantive vaccine-producing capacity (along with Baxter) & the US government has recently signed it up to be (I think) a sole supplier of swine flu vaccine? I think it will reach 35 or even 40

[Gundini]

I own this stock, and it seems to do not so well when the AUD goes up.

I think it earns most income in USD.

Considering selling on that basis, and re enter if the USD ever finds some upside..........

[So_Cynical]

CSL is one of only two companies in the world with substantive vaccine-producing capacity (along with Baxter) & the US government has recently signed it up to be (I think) a sole supplier of swine flu vaccine?

From memory i believe CSL was one of about 4 or 5 vaccine producers to get a contract from the US govt...the big upside for CSL IMO is vaccine production coming into the northern winter...who will the Chinese Govt turn to when they decide they should vaccinate essential services personnel and the armed forces etc?

[bleach8]

From memory i believe CSL was one of about 4 or 5 vaccine producers to get a contract from the US govt...the big upside for CSL IMO is vaccine production coming into the northern winter...who will the Chinese Govt turn to when they decide they should vaccinate essential services personnel and the armed forces etc?


China has a total of 11 drug companies that can produce seasonal flu vaccines. there are only around 36 companies can produce vaccines, and almost 1/3 are based in China. So i dont thik they will buy vaccines from CSL.

[So_Cynical]

China has a total of 11 drug companies that can produce seasonal flu vaccines. there are only around 36 companies can produce vaccines, and almost 1/3 are based in China. So i dont thik they will buy vaccines from CSL.

Well i had to look...and turns out your correct...quotes from link below.

China has a total of 11 drug companies that can produce seasonal flu vaccines..China's
annual vaccine production capacity is expected to reach 360 million doses if all the 11
domestic drug companies were approved for batch production of the vaccines.

http://www.bernama.com/bernama/v5/newsgeneral.php?id=417225

So how come the Americans didn't give the Chinese vaccine producers a contract? or did they?

[iASX]

My research group, iASX, is just about to publish a new target price for CSL, which I'm sure you'll find proves to be much more meaningful than flawed DCF valuation...


Best,
iASX

[dhukka]

My research group, iASX, is just about to publish a new target price for CSL, which I'm sure you'll find proves to be much more meaningful than flawed DCF valuation...


Best,
iASX

Oh please tell us your magic valuation kind sir and could you provide a link to your research group that I'm sure has some product I can susbscribe to for a fee.

[sqwark7600]

My research group, iASX, is just about to publish a new target price for CSL, which I'm sure you'll find proves to be much more meaningful than flawed DCF valuation...


Best,
iASX

My research group iDUM is just about to ask your research group iASX do you expect a rush of subscribers, lured by your golden beacon of share trading wisdom, to now rush out and buy ignoring our beloved but "floored" DCF valuation.....miASS! Say hullo to the groupies.