Hi first time poster long time reader, I've only started getting into the sharemarket game about 3 months ago, I have decided to watch the market for about about a year before I start putting my hard earned into it, I would say I spend at least 2 to 3 hours a day reading/analysing etc. ANYWAY...
I've been watching the banking sector quite keenly and I'm wondering where everyone thinks MBLs price will end up before the end of the year? Its constantly making higher gains than most other banks and I through my research (so far) I can't understand why it has such huge standings in the market.
I'm also interested to here your thought on MBL compared to other bank stocks and wonder where you think the majors and the other investment banks will be towards year end.
This is such a wonderful site, I hope to post more and read a lot more here in the future!
Milk Man
2nd-June-2005, 05:19 PM
Welcome serp
great bunch of guys here hey
I don't know if you are a terrible anarchist or a funny-mental :D as yet but from a technical outlook it may be making a double top. It'll be nice to see if it busts on through that high!
Milk Man
2nd-June-2005, 06:02 PM
Welcome serp
great bunch of guys here hey
I don't know if you are a terrible anarchist or a funny-mental :D as yet but from a technical outlook it may be making a double top. It'll be nice to see if it busts on through that high!
looks like it has! didn't download yesterdy :o
DTM
2nd-June-2005, 10:10 PM
Hi all, just trying something out. Looks like hocus pocus and I'm not sure what the heck it is...., I'm just experimenting so please don't ask me questions about it because I don't know what it is, and although am risking public humiliation and embarressment, I am still willing to try things out in the market in the remote chance of finding something useful.
Using MBL weekly charts, red circles are projected turning points in the future, ie resistance points, and blue circles support.
RichKid
2nd-June-2005, 10:21 PM
Nothing wrong with experimenting DTM, always good to keep things simple though imho.
Here's the longterm chart to put things in perspective- what a run!! Might be a good time to buy on the pull back as that previous high is holding. Not sure how vulnerable MBL is to a stockmarket downturn, maybe it's listed investment vehcles (MAP, MIG etc) will be stable rather than stellar performers.
ob1kenobi
3rd-June-2005, 12:52 AM
Nothing wrong with experimenting DTM, always good to keep things simple though imho.
Here's the longterm chart to put things in perspective- what a run!! Might be a good time to buy on the pull back as that previous high is holding. Not sure how vulnerable MBL is to a stockmarket downturn, maybe it's listed investment vehcles (MAP, MIG etc) will be stable rather than stellar performers.
I agree. I've had MBL on a watchlist for awhile but haven't been certain that they would be value for money. I think they continue as a strong performer because of their role in the market as a major merchant / investment bank, its own publicity and the specialised funds (eg MAP, MCG, etc). It may be that they are well run also! I'm still waiting to see where it goes but no stock is impervious to a downturn.
serp
3rd-June-2005, 03:57 PM
Welcome serp
great bunch of guys here hey
I don't know if you are a terrible anarchist or a funny-mental :D as yet but from a technical outlook it may be making a double top. It'll be nice to see if it busts on through that high!
I think its burst on through that high now, I'll be interested to see what happens next week. Up 4% since monday though!
TjamesX
3rd-June-2005, 04:56 PM
Wow DTM.... those charts have reminded me why I only use 'limited' TA in my share investing - my head is still hurting.
MBL are not exposed to the same risks that the traditional banks are - so they need to be viewed differently. Where they generate their revenue streams from is very different. I did happen to read my parents super plan written by a financial planner, it proposed Maquarie wrap accounts - essentially move your share portfolio into a their wrap account, and they'll charge you 0.8% or so on the total value of portfolio per year.....nice..... Note that the fin planner was taking around 1% on total portfolio value as well, just for putting them into the wrap accounts.....nice..... everyone gets their bit along the way....Further note, there are managed funds recommended under the wrap account, they have their own management fees associated. Needless to say they havent implemented the 'plan'
I reckon youd be 2-3% down before you even got off the blocks!
This is relevant because Maqurie are moving to more mum & dad revenue streams especially through super - they're leveraging off their name and the fact that they make squillions doing their 'real' business of investment banking. this healps smooth out the more volatile revenue associated with investment banking business.
I don't hold MBL but I do hold ARG (Argo - LIC). Argo's largest shareholding is in MBL (around 190mill) a nice way to get some exposure.
TJ
serp
6th-June-2005, 10:48 AM
Geez its nearly up a $1 in this mornings trade, I picked this break out (thats what its called right?) on paper just as it was turning $45, god I wish I was past my self imposed probationary period for that one!
serp
6th-June-2005, 07:07 PM
wow nearly up a $1.40 today. I think the resistance barrier has been well and truly broken :)
TjamesX
10th-June-2005, 11:24 AM
Article from airview stating that MBL are being rerated to outperform by CFSB. MBL are uniquely positioned to take advantage of private money going into infrastructure.
...........and so MBL are up $2.27 or 4% so far today, current price is $57.48
:eek:
serp
10th-June-2005, 04:01 PM
Up over $3 gain for today with a few minutes of trading left, I wonder if its still going to keep climbing like a mad man or readjust any time soon?
RichKid
14th-June-2005, 11:08 AM
A very steep climb, I think people are getting excited. With the all ords near all time highs I expect a pullback at some stage as the bluechips get hit in a downturn, too late to enter now imo unless you have very very tight stops. Maybe BNB will ride MBL's coat tails.
serp
14th-June-2005, 06:52 PM
A lot of activity today on MBL, went up over the $60 mark then some profit taking occured I guess, still finished with a small gain though.
DTM
17th-June-2005, 04:49 PM
A very steep climb, I think people are getting excited. With the all ords near all time highs I expect a pullback at some stage as the bluechips get hit in a downturn, too late to enter now imo unless you have very very tight stops. Maybe BNB will ride MBL's coat tails.
I agree with you Rich. Seems to be a lot of hype in the market and definitely a lot of greed. I'm bullish on MBL and bought call options on it yesterday as it retested my support line but didn't break it. Today it moved up well and am hoping for a bit more on Monday. I am hoping the US markets won't fall tonight (its ready to fall soon). I am bearish on the US markets and am hoping to get a few more up days there so that I can look to get out of MBL on Monday.
I've attached a chart of MBL showing where my resistace turned into support.
RichKid
17th-June-2005, 04:56 PM
I agree with you Rich. Seems to be a lot of hype in the market and definitely a lot of greed. I'm bullish on MBL and bought call options on it yesterday as it retested my support line but didn't break it. Today it moved up well and am hoping for a bit more on Monday. I am hoping the US markets won't fall tonight (its ready to fall soon). I am bearish on the US markets and am hoping to get a few more up days there so that I can look to get out of MBL on Monday.
I've attached a chart of MBL showing where my resistace turned into support.
Hope you make some dough out of this one DTM, beware of that big candle and the steepness of the climb. Brokers have targets of $70 on this but I don't see why it should happen overnight. Hopefull you'll get out of this before it retraces. Good luck!
TjamesX
28th-July-2005, 10:40 AM
Quarterly results are in and MBL is edging towards $65
$70 isn't looking so far away now
resourceful_man
1st-August-2005, 07:35 AM
Geez its nearly up a $1 in this mornings trade, I picked this break out (thats what its called right?) on paper just as it was turning $45, god I wish I was past my self imposed probationary period for that one!
$45 is now the new support level, surely she has to let off some steam ?
MBL will come back to it's support sooner or later.
Julia
26th-September-2005, 10:06 PM
$45 is now the new support level, surely she has to let off some steam ?
MBL will come back to it's support sooner or later.
How many members are holding MBL?
I'm one happy holder with the SP up $3.97 today to a close of $74.04.
Julia
RichKid
27th-September-2005, 06:56 PM
Good article, not the strongest day for MBL today but that's one powerful trend that shows no signs of slowing.
Big deals on the horizon for Macquarie Bank
SMH September 27, 2005 - 4:43PM
Macquarie Bank Ltd shares continued their stellar run today as investors look forward to a number of potential deals over the coming months.
As the investment bank's shares race towards the $80 mark, analysts are also questioning whether a share split could be conducted to make the stock more attractive to mum and dad investors.
Macquarie Bank shares hit an intraday peak of $78.23 before ending up 60 cents at a new closing high of $74.64, making for a rise of $4.57 in the last two sessions.
The surge came after the bank yesterday upgraded its guidance for the current financial year ending March 31, 2006, saying it expects net profit to at least equal last year's $823 million.
Brokers today upgraded their forecasts, saying they believed the guidance was conservative as a number of major deals were still on the horizon.
Macquarie Bank had previously indicated it was considering leading a consortium in a bid for the London Stock Exchange.
British media outlets are reporting that a bid of more than £1.5 billion ($3.6 billion) could be announced as early as this week.
The investment bank has also appointed advisers as it prepares to float its radio assets into a new media fund.
Macquarie is also considering listing a couple of its infrastructure funds - one in Europe and the other in Korea, with a spokesman today confirming that the latter may occur "by the end of the calendar year".
Credit Suisse First Boston now believes Macquarie Bank's earnings could top the $1 billion mark in any of the next three years.
However, Goldman Sachs JBWere has cautioned that the share price was starting to look fully valued.
"Earnings risk on the downside could emerge from performance fees," said analyst James Freeman.
"So far in the second half of this calendar year, Macquarie Bank's specialist funds have not performed well.
"Should this underperformance continue, performance fees will come under increasing pressure."
There are also suggestions that the share price is becoming unwieldy - especially for the 20 per cent of Macquarie Bank's shareholders that are retail investors.
It's now one of the highest value stocks on the Australian Stock Exchange.
UBS, which has valued the bank's shares at $85 each, said a share split would be positive for the stock as Australian retail investors had traditionally been reluctant to purchase stocks with high share prices.
A share split technically does not affect the underlying value of the stock - it simply reduces the price through the issuance of more shares.
Macquarie chief financial officer Greg Ward said in July that a share split was not on the cards because it would not generate significant shareholder value.
Intersuisse director of equities Andrew Sekely said he thought it unlikely that Macquarie Bank would now change its mind.
"For an American investor, $76 is no big deal really," Mr Sekely said.
"There are prices in the hundreds in the United States."
Yippyio
28th-September-2005, 07:51 AM
During the last two days I have noticed BNB getting swept along (up) with the strong sentiment towards MBL, however BNB did not retreat yesterday afternoon, investors held. CGF by comparison was pretty poor.
dutchie
20th-October-2005, 07:22 AM
The DOW is up this morning so going on past few days
MBL could go up $2 - $3 (thats the theory anyway!)
But when has the stockmarket followed theories???
This is not advice just an observation!
michael_selway
21st-October-2005, 12:08 AM
The DOW is up this morning so going on past few days
MBL could go up $2 - $3 (thats the theory anyway!)
But when has the stockmarket followed theories???
This is not advice just an observation!
its 63 atm from high of 78, not sure if it will go below 60 u think?
dutchie
21st-October-2005, 06:04 AM
Michael
For a very short period yesterday morning MBL rose about $2.70 but fell the rest of the day (DOW was up).
The DOW is down this morning so I would not be surprised at all if it did fall below $60 today - with this stock who knows.
This is not advise but I would not be buying anything at the moment - (except maybe some puts). The US market is not looking good and we seem to be following it - irrespective of fundamentals.
These comments are pure guesswork so don't take them seriously.
Kauri
22nd-December-2005, 12:38 PM
Thought today might have been the day to take another bite but the Vol says otherwise.
visual
1st-February-2006, 10:57 AM
I thought todays news re mbl wasnt that bad!
yet the price is down 5 bucks. :banghead:
Julia
1st-February-2006, 11:20 AM
Hi Visual,
It was recovering as you wrote. Good buying opportunity.
Julia
nizar
1st-February-2006, 11:49 AM
Hi Visual,
It was recovering as you wrote. Good buying opportunity.
Julia
yes i agree, good buying opportunity...
i been wanting 2 pick these up for sub-65 for a while...
why the sell-off u think?
michael_selway
1st-February-2006, 12:30 PM
yes i agree, good buying opportunity...
i been wanting 2 pick these up for sub-65 for a while...
why the sell-off u think?
Hi an annoucement today
Basically bad forecast to come, as the lastest half yr much worse than first half year. So MBL most likely slow down from now on (compared to last 2 yrs). Reaching its all time high of $78 in a 3 yr time frame, seems in doubt now.
----------------------------------------
In commenting on the Banks business Groups for the half to date, Mr Moss said:
The Investment Banking Group expects its second half profit to be significantly lower in 2H06 than 1H06ii and 2H05iii, due to the absence of significant performance fees. The underlying business continues to perform strongly, with growth in staff, offices in international locations, and equity under management. Overall the full year result is expected to be up on the prior corresponding period.
The Treasury and Commodities Group expects the 2H06 to be well down on a very strong 1H06. There were strong results across all divisions and the US energy and commodities business continues to grow. Overall, the full year result is expected to be up on the prior corresponding period.
The Banking and Property Group expects 2H06 to be up on 1H06 with all major businesses performing well. The Australian mortgages business is experiencing very strong market share growth and there has been substantial growth in property funds under management. However, the investment in new businesses has limited profit growth for the Group in the current year. Overall, the full year result is expected to be up on the prior corresponding period (excluding the one off gain from the formation of the Macquarie Goodman Group).
The Equity Markets Group expects its 2H06 result to be down substantially relative to 1H06 due to poor trading conditions in Hong Kong, and quieter second half market conditions in Australia and South Africa. Overall, however, the full year result is expected to be well up on the prior corresponding period.
The Financial Services Group expects its 2H06 to be down relative to 1H06, due to seasonality, deal flow and increased investment in businesses in 2H06. Overall, the full year result is expected to be up significantly on the prior corresponding period.
The Funds Management Group expects 2H06 result to be marginally ahead of 1H06 and overall, the full year result to be up on the prior corresponding period.
TheAnalyst
1st-February-2006, 06:05 PM
I sold my mbl installlments today and took a loss...i was actually disappointed and i think so were a lot of others as the news is actually a tame downgrade and looks like growth is coming off the boil.
The profit was not bad but it wasnt like the other one that doubled last time and sent the stock flying this one says things are soft and when you account for inflation over this year and next thats 3% compounded of the money invested in the stock.
At the moment a lot of better places to park money...not saying there wont be a technical bounce on the way but mid term not so great.
sleep well for a little mbl and not a good affect on BNB
markrmau
16th-February-2006, 07:05 PM
Looks like a nice short doesn't it? Broken out below the 61-65$ trading range on higher volume. Stop circa $63.
NOTE: Average broker recco is approx $80 so this is going against the experts recommendation.
michael_selway
16th-February-2006, 07:11 PM
Looks like a nice short doesn't it? Broken out below the 61-65$ trading range on higher volume. Stop circa $63.
NOTE: Average broker recco is approx $80 so this is going against the experts recommendation.
so what price is the suporrt u think? liek what price do u think it can go down to based on the charts
thx
MS
markrmau
16th-February-2006, 07:41 PM
Good question - may be it isn't such a good short.
The reason I say this is that looking purely at the charts, you would have to say that the next major support is about $50. So a reward:risk of about 3:1. However, I seriously doubt it will go back to $50. I think it will bounce off $55. Now only a reward to risk of 1.5:1
Maybe I should wind the stop back to about $61.50 to bring the ratio back up a bit....but this would be too easily stopped out.
visual
15th-May-2006, 09:32 PM
OK,does anybody know why macquarie is in trading halt,hope its good news or :banghead:
sails
15th-May-2006, 10:35 PM
Visual, could be due to earnings announcement tomorrow - here's the link to the shareholder calendar on their website: http://www.macquarie.com.au/au/about_macquarie/shareholder_calendar.htm
RichKid
15th-May-2006, 11:01 PM
Visual, could be due to earnings announcement tomorrow - here's the link to the shareholder calendar on their website: http://www.macquarie.com.au/au/about_macquarie/shareholder_calendar.htm
...or maybe they've got a cut of the yummy Telstra float...
visual
17th-May-2006, 12:21 AM
cant make up my mind will tomorrow bring good tidingis for mac or not?
or is the price going to fall because the market has already factored the good news in :confused:
noirua
17th-May-2006, 08:36 AM
It is surprising that a Bank like Macquari, is to get involved with an umpteenth rescue attempt of the French and UK company, Eurotunnel ( ETL ).
ETL was floated on the Paris and London stock exchanges in November 1990 at £2.85 a share ( they now stand at 25p ) and moved to a high, close to £10.00.
Why did Eurotunnel get into such dire trouble? One was the debt position, that was agreed at rates between 5% and 7%, these rose to 11% to 17%. Forecasts of 20,000 travellers per day fell far short of the mark and only stand at around 7,000 per day at present.
The other down factor is the reduction in costs to France, particularly from the many UK airports and ferries. Infact, NZ's Infratil ( IFT ) have bought the Kent International Airport ( Manston, Isle of Thanet, North East Kent ) and are now on a four year plan to start international flights, particularly to France.
Tread carefully Macquarie Bank and don't end up in a debt mess, with the French and UK's disastrous Eurotunnel.
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/business/4771829.stm
visual
17th-May-2006, 03:29 PM
And now watch as mac.reaches 60 dollars on the back of this news :swear:
michael_selway
17th-May-2006, 04:08 PM
And now watch as mac.reaches 60 dollars on the back of this news :swear:
what do u guys think of BNB or RCD as opposed to MBL?
thx
MS
bug
21st-May-2006, 07:00 PM
It could be argued MBL offers the greatest opportunity as it embarks on its next stage of development - the bank has been significantly bulking up its international staff, earnings and deals the last two reporting seasons, which will continue to be the case in subsequent periods.
Compared to the smaller players - BNB, RCD and MFS - who do similar activities on a more specialised scale, MBL has been able to diversify itself strongly in a commanding breadth of activities/products,
as well as increasingly expanding where it does business around the globe. MBL's exposure to market downturns should be mitigated as it gains this access to the greater range of deals and opportunites world-wide.
This should represent the next watershed of growth, as MBL's international income moves beyond its current 50% level. The previous growth came from large infrastructure deals in Australia, which have lost prominence in MBL's growth profile.
All of MBL's seven key divisions are firing. Offshore earnings also rose 59 per cent in the result just announced. The bank's long term growth seems assured as it builds on already strong foundations.
michael_selway
21st-May-2006, 08:59 PM
It could be argued MBL offers the greatest opportunity as it embarks on its next stage of development - the bank has been significantly bulking up its international staff, earnings and deals the last two reporting seasons, which will continue to be the case in subsequent periods.
Compared to the smaller players - BNB, RCD and MFS - who do similar activities on a more specialised scale, MBL has been able to diversify itself strongly in a commanding breadth of activities/products,
as well as increasingly expanding where it does business around the globe. MBL's exposure to market downturns should be mitigated as it gains this access to the greater range of deals and opportunites world-wide.
This should represent the next watershed of growth, as MBL's international income moves beyond its current 50% level. The previous growth came from large infrastructure deals in Australia, which have lost prominence in MBL's growth profile.
All of MBL's seven key divisions are firing. Offshore earnings also rose 59 per cent in the result just announced. The bank's long term growth seems assured as it builds on already strong foundations.
Yeah MBL has the most diversified. However EPS growth % pa wise may not be as good as the others? Larger base now as it once was?
It could be hard to say who the actual EPS winner will be, based on which company gets the most deals and whether their markets go sour at all.
The smaller companies are coming off a numerically smaller growth base, while MBL is building more international scale to take advantage of bigger deals to boost its EPS. MBL should have the ability to do even more of what its smaller rival BNB is doing:
BNB announced its latest earnings upgrade on Friday, after clinching its sizeable eircom takeover and socking away the related fees from the transaction.
BNB has started making noises about Australian investors not supporting its infrastructure fund (BBI), and that it will be setting up more international specialist funds and conducting its own capital raising. Does the strategy sound familiar? MBL has got a head start on the types of big international deals needed to boost EPS growth meaningfully. MBL itself has good scope to grow internationally, to reach the heights of the very large overseas investment banking firms.
MBL is a more mature operation, and should provide a bit more 'safety' when markets turn down. BNB, for instance, is proving more volatile, causing the sharper paring back of its price gains whenever the market adjusts. When the investment banking markets eventually become less friendly to growth, this will challenge the ability of the smaller, less well-established players to produce strong EPS growth.
michael_selway
28th-May-2006, 01:24 AM
It could be hard to say who the actual EPS winner will be, based on which company gets the most deals and whether their markets go sour at all.
The smaller companies are coming off a numerically smaller growth base, while MBL is building more international scale to take advantage of bigger deals to boost its EPS. MBL should have the ability to do even more of what its smaller rival BNB is doing:
BNB announced its latest earnings upgrade on Friday, after clinching its sizeable eircom takeover and socking away the related fees from the transaction.
BNB has started making noises about Australian investors not supporting its infrastructure fund (BBI), and that it will be setting up more international specialist funds and conducting its own capital raising. Does the strategy sound familiar? MBL has got a head start on the types of big international deals needed to boost EPS growth meaningfully. MBL itself has good scope to grow internationally, to reach the heights of the very large overseas investment banking firms.
MBL is a more mature operation, and should provide a bit more 'safety' when markets turn down. BNB, for instance, is proving more volatile, causing the sharper paring back of its price gains whenever the market adjusts. When the investment banking markets eventually become less friendly to growth, this will challenge the ability of the smaller, less well-established players to produce strong EPS growth.
Yeah saw the BNB upgrade
26 May 2006
Babcock & Brown Upgrade to 2006 EPS Growth Outlook
International investment and advisory firm Babcock & Brown (ASX: BNB) today announced that the 2006 interim result, to be released to the market on 24 August, is expected to report EPS growth in the order of 40%. Assuming interest in the investment opportunities presented by our specialised funds and asset management platform continues and there are no major market disruptions, we expect the strong momentum in the business at the present time to flow through to EPS growth of at least 35% for the full year. This revised full year guidance reflects an increase on the 20% EPS growth previously announced.
MBL is already too big (base is already too big) NPAT of about $900 Mil, BNB NPAT of about $180 mil. So an increase of 100 mil per annum to both is more favourable to BNB % wise?
Both have great potential imo.
thx
MS
bug
29th-May-2006, 08:01 PM
BNB seems to have the jump on MBL at the moment in any event. Since reaching its all time high of $78 on 30 September 2005, MBL has been up and down a lot in the $60's range. It wasn't helped by providing guidance its full year profit would just be 'slightly up', and the +13% result was announced during a trading halt!
While MBL has been on the backfoot, BNB has been issuing upgrades and creating higher EPS expectations! It's up to MBL to prove its international expansion strategy can accelerate it to the next level.
michael_selway
2nd-June-2006, 12:01 AM
BNB seems to have the jump on MBL at the moment in any event. Since reaching its all time high of $78 on 30 September 2005, MBL has been up and down a lot in the $60's range. It wasn't helped by providing guidance its full year profit would just be 'slightly up', and the +13% result was announced during a trading halt!
While MBL has been on the backfoot, BNB has been issuing upgrades and creating higher EPS expectations! It's up to MBL to prove its international expansion strategy can accelerate it to the next level.
BNB's PER is 24 vs MBL's 16. That's a pretty big gap.
The conventional wisdom was that both companies would have similar PERs, as BNB's increased growth prospects would be offset by its greater balance sheet risk.
Yes, BNB is growing its EPS, but this isn't keeping at up all with the shares' excessive valuation. BNB is overvalued, and the hype around it leaves it vulnerable to bad markets and bad news. It got knocked around just recently by the last correction, before saving itself with an earnings upgrade. In October last year, an independent report came out saying it was overvalued and only worth about $7, which knocked it down to $15 amid the broader market correction.
It's obvious the stock has its supporters, but they are paying for a slice of
something that is not yet there. BNB's EPS growth is commendable, providing everything works on a best case scenario for it.
Part of the gap in PER's also seems to be due to MBL lagging below its average historical PER. MBL looks to be a sleeper, though, because 2007 is already off to a good start. The big Dyno Nobel deal just missed the 2006 year, so it's a 'freebie' for 2007 earnings!!!
michael_selway
16th-June-2006, 11:11 PM
BNB's PER is 24 vs MBL's 16. That's a pretty big gap.
The conventional wisdom was that both companies would have similar PERs, as BNB's increased growth prospects would be offset by its greater balance sheet risk.
You also need to look at Forward PE, as recently BNB had a profit upgrade
Date: 9/6/2006
Author: Robert Clow
Source: The Australian --- Page: 26
The share price of Australian financial companies fell on 8 June 2006 while a merger sustained Record Investments. Macquarie Bank and Babcock & Brown have some dependence on a strong stock market to resell their assets. This caused Macquarie's share price to fall by $A2.80 to $A62.80, while Babcock's dropped by $A0.42 to $A19.89 in the weaker overall market. On 9 June, the shareholders of Record Investments will vote on its $A3 billion merger with Allco Finance. Allco is more dependent on global economic growth. Record's share price rose by $A0.03 to $A10.73
bug
17th-June-2006, 05:14 PM
Huntley's is currently quoting PEs of 22 (BNB) versus 16.72 (MBL), taking forward earnings into account. The gap stands (but a bit less!)
(Huntley's uses both forecast and historical EPS to give a more balanced P/E ratio than using either one alone. The current price is divided by the average of the last actual earnings per share figure and the projected EPS figure for the next year. The two figures are weighted based on the elapsed time between each period). Using outright Forward PE's still gives a good gap
between MBL and BNB.
MBL's global deal flow is starting to ramp up again bringing improving sentiment - It is head to head with Goldman Sachs with a $6.5B bid for Associated British Ports, will pick up more of Bristol and Sydney Airports as part of the successful Ferrovial takeover of BAA, and made a $570M purchase of the leading US, Canada and UK air pressure vending operator. Today's Australian Financial Review reports Macquarie topped the Mergers and Acquisitions league table. Macquarie is going from strength to strength. It is smaller in global terms against the giants, but can still give the likes of Goldman Sachs and UBS a run for their money. It is the largest non-government owner of infrastructure in the world, but has massive future growth potential on the world stage. The size of the company in the Australian context, or comparisons to BNB and others, are not a fair representation of its major global growth prospects. Macquarie's day has just begun.
michael_selway
17th-June-2006, 11:02 PM
[QUOTE=bug]Huntley's is currently quoting PEs of 22 (BNB) versus 16.72 (MBL), taking forward earnings into account. The gap stands (but a bit less!)
QUOTE]
Thats only fwd 2006 EPS, u need to look at aleast 3 yrs forward EPS, maybe more.
EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-12-06 105.3 18.8 36.8%
Year Ending 30-12-07 127.9 15.5 21.5%
So
MBL 2009 Fwd PE = 66/4.735 = 13.94
BNB 2008 Fwd PE = 19.81/1.522 = 13.02
So BNB appears cheaper as time goes by, but what about 2010 2011 EPS? It appears MBL is "slowing" % wise in growth pa as currently forecasted? Also BNB recently had an EPS upgrade from 20%pa to now 36.8% this yr, so there may be more suprises to come in the future? What about MBL?
thx
MS
Chief Wigam
18th-June-2006, 12:05 AM
Good commentary and thanks for the info.
I am hoping to hear what people think of Macquarie's investment companies such as MCQ and MCG? MCQ has done poorly since it floated. Do they generally come back with time? They claim to offer capital growth but there's certainly been none with MCQ. :dunno:
scsl
18th-June-2006, 03:30 AM
I've held MCQ since the IPO in April 2005 and having recently paid for the second instalment, am disappointed with its performance and have been thinking of selling but am just not sure as CW said of whether they can "come back with time"...
MCQ have made significant acquisitions such as the European Directories business and Red Bee Media but its share price is down 15.2% from April 2005. Its investments are in sectors with "strong growth potential and high barriers to entry" but it has failed to find serious buyers. Is it because of a lack of positive analyst coverage/institutional buyers?
Even an announcement on Friday that an MCQ led consortium had acqured the world's largest owner and operator of vehicle tyre inflation equipment in ASI Holding Corp failed to excite the market, with its shares up just 0.30%. What is going on??
With this acquisition, MCQ has now fully invested the proceeds from the IPO. Will this somehow affect its trading pattern or will the market wait for its annual results?
I read that Macquarie offshoots could be performing better if MBL weren't reaping all those continual performance/management fees and feel as though it would be wiser in the long run to switch over to MBL shares. Any thoughts?
Cheers
kennas
18th-June-2006, 08:08 AM
I agree with the management/performance fee issue. The millionsairre's club, soon to probably be billionairre's club are might be seen to be milking it for a little bit more than they should. Although, I'm not too sure how much is 'management' and how much is 'performance'. Perhaps they need to lift the performance part and they might try harder to get more value out of them!
In general though, I think managed investments like MAP, MIG etc have performed ordinary in the past year because everyone is jumping on commodities for the 'growth' cycle. Airports and tollroads just aren't very sexy and aren't going to announce a new massive discovery or farm in by RIO.
BlueTrader
18th-June-2006, 01:00 PM
I agree that the commodities cycle may be drawing attention from industrial stocks. Also, Macquarie's and Babcock's infrastructure fund share prices have been lagging given the global interest rate scares. The leveraging used within the infrastructure funds would be disadvantaged by higher interest rates and inflation, but offsetting factors include toll road revenue increasing with CPI and the long period leveraging occurs over. Maquarie and BNB have a lot of fingers in a lot of pies, which gives them plenty of room to move. I would expect Macquarie will bring out a ports infrastructure fund if they successfully bid for Associated British Ports, given they already have the Isle of Man Steam Packet Company and Chinese ports.
Comparing MBL and BNB's EPS and PE's is a bit tricky, because a lot of their success really depends upon the deals they can each land. I find using forward/'blue sky' PEs over longer periods produces unclear results in the case of investment banking shares like MBL and BNB. Markets go sour and earnings don't eventuate in the event of a major downturn. These cyclical companies depend upon buoyant equity markets to produce their earnings, which forward PEs cannot predict will continue.
scsl
5th-July-2006, 06:45 PM
one of the longest lists i've ever seen. i'll give you a clue... MBL's assets.
also, stephen mayne, founder of ezine Crickey, is running for the MBL board. why? so he can stop the things that he sets out in the article below from ocurring again, which can be seen as a form of insider trading.
What does everyone think of MBL at the moment? Im deciding if I should pickup some (for the share game) but is interest rates going to have a negative effect on them?
bug
3rd-August-2006, 10:15 PM
Over the last ten months, MBL has been up and down a few times between $60 and $70. It's at the lower end of this range yet again and presents historically favourable value. It's price earnings ratio is a historically low 15 and it's expected to break the $1 Billion mark for the first time in its full year result (year ended March 2007). A fully franked dividend of 3.8% has appeal.
MBL has a good international growth story happening beyond its disappointing short term price movements. For a buyer the chance to get MBL close to $60 is just a good opportunity.
Interest rate rises generally hurt the share market, including financial stocks. MBL, like other financial stocks feels an effect because rising rates usually crimp the liquidity of the markets they do business in. However, financial institutions can also improve their margins through higher interest rates.
-------------------
Doing your own research is recommended when deciding whether to buy or sell individual shares.
pacer
20th-September-2006, 10:16 AM
Got in cheap this morning....wadda y recon?....all red otherwise.......3000cfd 1 week max
kennas
20th-September-2006, 10:31 AM
7 brokers I follow have it as buy/outperform with an average $84 target. Wavering between $60 and $70, so every chance it'll be back at $70 some time soon for a quick few bucks. MACD just positively crossed so on the way up. For the moment.
kennas
21st-September-2006, 12:05 PM
There you go Pacer. Might be a good play mate.
In the Australian:
MacBank heading to $70
September 21, 2006
ANALYSTS believe Macquarie Bank shares are likely to return to the $70 mark after it bumped up its first-half profit guidance.......
bowser
21st-September-2006, 01:29 PM
What price are you targeting Pacer? I agree with Kennas... $70 looks to be achievable in the short-term. Holding out for more through sept\oct could be a bit risky though.
pacer
21st-September-2006, 04:04 PM
I recon this could be a bigger than expected run.....me thinks $ 90 is acchievable with the mining stocks looking weaker, but it may take a little while.
I read somewhere that $120 was a target price....might have been the ferret, but that was a while ago. Whatever, it's looking Awesome and as of now is 3.2% up....went long CFD 3000MBL and am real happy with today's result, can afford another holiday till the next bit of good/bad news hits a company.
They dont call it the 'Millionaires Factory' for nothing!
I was actualy on a bender with my mates all night till 7.30 in the morning, playing poker, and watched the early news saying they expect 40% increase in profits.....I always make plays on stuff that hits the TV as that has the biggest impact on a share....AWB was another nice short I made big $ on, among others.
I will hold for a bit and see where it goes...up I expect....cant see any downside.
michael_selway
21st-September-2006, 07:06 PM
I recon this could be a bigger than expected run.....me thinks $ 90 is acchievable with the mining stocks looking weaker, but it may take a little while.
I read somewhere that $120 was a target price....might have been the ferret, but that was a while ago. Whatever, it's looking Awesome and as of now is 3.2% up....went long CFD 3000MBL and am real happy with today's result, can afford another holiday till the next bit of good/bad news hits a company.
They dont call it the 'Millionaires Factory' for nothing!
I was actualy on a bender with my mates all night till 7.30 in the morning, playing poker, and watched the early news saying they expect 40% increase in profits.....I always make plays on stuff that hits the TV as that has the biggest impact on a share....AWB was another nice short I made big $ on, among others.
I will hold for a bit and see where it goes...up I expect....cant see any downside.
MBL MACQUARIE BANK LIMITED Overnight Price: $64.51
ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy - The broker notes management''s update of likely 20% earnings growth for the half year is in line with its forecast, so there is no change to its estimates. These estimates are at the top of the market range currently.
Valuation is $82.00.
Target price is $82.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$17.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the ABN Amro target it will return approximately 27% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy - Management has guided to a least 20% increase in profit (ex-MGQ) for 1H07 leading the broker to upgrade earnings by 5% in FY07 and 4% in FY08.
Target price is $80.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$15.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 24% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight - The 40% (incl MGQ) update to earnings has actually led the broker to adjust forecasts down slightly as they were ahead of the market. This includes taking into account that history suggests 40% means 50%.
Target price is $95.84 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$31.33 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the JP Morgan target it will return approximately 49% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
AddedMerrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy, Medium Risk - Having recently moved to Buy and upgaded earnings increased guidance has not led to further changes, although the broker notes guidance is now slightly ahead of forecasts.
Target price is $71.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$6.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the Merrill Lynch target it will return approximately 10% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
SB Citigroup rates the stock as Buy , High Risk - The broker notes earnings guidance from management implies a result higher than it had expected, causing it to lift its earnings forecast for FY07 by 2% to 502.9c.
It expects this update and likely announcements on asset sales should be enough to renew market interest in the stock.
Target price is $86.00 Current Price is $64.51 Difference:$21.49 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If MBL meets the SB Citigroup target it will return approximately 33% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).
pacer
21st-September-2006, 10:48 PM
All good on the home front then.....keep up the good work Mike...a graphists view would add to my confidece....I'm pretty baisic on that side of things...but I do have a general understanding...the news pays as good as going to a $3000 course...tv news, and your posts have kept me off the dole/benefits.....make more than I ever did in the mines....ruined my back a few years ago...but refuse to bow down and bludge off the government...to bloody proud......do a few deals an wheels here and there ''''''wheels'n'deals''''' and this keep me entertained.
LUV YOU ALL FOR THIS SITE Can't imagine where I' be without you all!!!!!!!
bowser
22nd-September-2006, 07:03 AM
do a few deals an wheels here and there ''''''wheels'n'deals''''' and this keep me entertained.
LUV YOU ALL FOR THIS SITE Can't imagine where I' be without you all!!!!!!!
Pacer, you sound like Arthur Daley... "Its a nice 'lil earner"
The charts seem to say if price holds above $70, and overall market conditions are positive the price targets might be reached ($80-90).. If the US has a sell off in the next month however a reversal would be more likely. :2twocents
pacer
22nd-September-2006, 05:45 PM
Bowser you are right on the button....OI 'ave turned ita a bit orv aain ARFUR!
Most of what I do is a little more legal though....buy stuff REAL CHEAP and pass it on to others who want it, at a higher price, doing well with getting computers and stuff from the auctions and floggin' it to the punters, an the odd mota too!........CFD's are a great tool, and was real surprised to see I could sell high then buy back low.....what a scam.....most punters I tell about CFD's can't understand the concept, an' recon I'm pullin' an Arfur......well they're all listening a bit more to me now!.....I just bide my time an' hit the big scores.....usualy try to go short or take two positions at once....one long and one short of equal value to make sure I don't get caught out on a bad day....that is my Number one rule....but rules are made to be broken....If it is a real good play then I'll break rule#1.
Always look on the bright side of life....Monty Python...
Looking back on my time in the mining game, I can honestly say I was wasting my talents....I'm an Arfur at heart...but it has given me a better insight to how a minerals/oil company will perform, and the odd good tip from a mate.....my flatmate just went up north on a drilling rig, and have a few other mates still in the mining/oil industry......see what I mean?
Ok Guv ..... MBL up a little again today.....set stop loss at $500 profit.....wierd way to set one but that's my system, and raise it as it rises....play a little online poker too.
Keep, up the good work....you punters are my living.....Know wot I mean!
bowser
22nd-September-2006, 07:07 PM
Nothing wrong with a 'lil bit of Arthur, long been a fan. I lived around the corner from where they shot the Winchester Club. Had to laugh every morning I walked past. Dont know about VAT's though :)
Next week will be interesting for MBL. Held up nicely on a bad day.
pacer
22nd-September-2006, 08:10 PM
Hey...any one using the chat button?...I hardly eva see anyone there!
are there any specific times they chat,,,awesome look to it! and would luv an online chat to someone!
pacer
27th-September-2006, 02:10 AM
Slow but steady ...now...waitin til tomorrow...still up from last week ,,,wiaiting for a turn....TLS down tgain...pooooooooo
pacer
27th-September-2006, 02:14 AM
Slowwwww.....but up soon?
nelly
27th-September-2006, 02:19 AM
Pacer check your messages.... :banghead:
pacer
29th-September-2006, 09:37 AM
Hoping MBL will crack the $70 mark for a decent run up to new highs....preferrably today or I may bail out, as cfd interest will eat up profits already achieved.
Possible with the US posting a bit of confidence this week.
Wish me luck.
Warren Buffet II
29th-September-2006, 03:06 PM
Hoping MBL will crack the $70 mark.
Hi Pacer,
I do not think that MBL will break the $70 mark anytime soon, I can be wrong but I do not see any strong signs that they can be worth more than $70 at this point.
I have a problem with MBL and is that they are always trying to influence the market in one way or another and people are understanding now how they do that and how ridiculous high their fees are, so based on that is $70 a real worth value?
Just me
WBII
michael_selway
29th-September-2006, 08:24 PM
Hi Pacer,
I do not think that MBL will break the $70 mark anytime soon, I can be wrong but I do not see any strong signs that they can be worth more than $70 at this point.
I have a problem with MBL and is that they are always trying to influence the market in one way or another and people are understanding now how they do that and how ridiculous high their fees are, so based on that is $70 a real worth value?
EPS and DPS are forecast information and as such can vary in the short/long run, but some people like to forecast with the forecast. Interesting is that DPS is based on EPS and with the values that you give us you keep changing the payout ratio, is there any reason for that?.
Anyway, I said MBL might not be worth $70 and you are saying based on the EPS and DPS forecast it is worth $70, so just for my curiosity how much is worth for you based on that?
Thanks
WBII
michael_selway
2nd-October-2006, 11:07 AM
Hi MS,
EPS and DPS are forecast information and as such can vary in the short/long run, but some people like to forecast with the forecast. Interesting is that DPS is based on EPS and with the values that you give us you keep changing the payout ratio, is there any reason for that?.
Anyway, I said MBL might not be worth $70 and you are saying based on the EPS and DPS forecast it is worth $70, so just for my curiosity how much is worth for you based on that?
Thanks
WBII
Hi payout ratio, not sure whay its changes but its ok, not too excessive or too low
Well Forward Terminal PE of 10. But 2009 doesnt look Terminal! ie more growth to come likely, so cant say, but above $50 so maybe $60 atm I value it
thx
MS
pacer
4th-October-2006, 04:31 PM
Sold MBL at $69.60 the other day, purely because it was slowing on it's climb....down today so am happy with the profits... up $5 from purchase on 3000 CFD's.....another holiday till a new play comes along.
Thanks for your posts, I may have held on to go above $70 otherwise, if it does though, and goes above previous highs I may have another look.
swingstar
17th-October-2006, 01:21 PM
In response to barney in another thread... MBL is currently near a very important area of resistance ($7.50). It's fallen a minimum of 7% from here four times in the last year.
To me, right now, it looks as though it's running out of steam, and I wouldn't be surprised if it fell again. In fact I think it's setting up for a good short play.
barney
17th-October-2006, 05:59 PM
Congratulations Paceman, I'm glad you did well out of MBL (that rhymes, but hey... I'm a muso!!)
I agree SS, but at the same time I kinda get the feeling that MBL may have a little more fight left in it, but that would/could be determined by the Oz stock market trend in general...... today says you are right, but next couple of days will tell a better story .......... I don't hold MBL, but a friend of mine does, and for him I hope it bounces a little higher, Cheers, Barney.
pacer
20th-October-2006, 10:14 PM
FINALY LOOKED BACK ON IT...DAMN!
MISSED THE RISE! BREAKIN ALL PREVIOUS HIGHS.....see my post on RIO today......never look back...there's other plays to make.....
The bulls are rushing.....expecting big gains from next week on then a massive fall a week or two before xmas....DYOR....lol
mrWoodo
1st-November-2006, 03:13 PM
Money Flow declining, share price still rising - I think this is going to be a big fall.
Looks like you may be right mrWoodo. It's about time too--I've been bearish on MBL for weeks. Hopefully we'll see volume pick up today.
kennas
28th-November-2006, 09:51 AM
I'm not sure how MBL will hold up during any economic weakness, like US recession, but it gets pretty well rated around the traps. In Lonsec's 'model portfolio', and the following brokers seem to think it's a goer:
JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight
November 23 2006
The QAN deal adds substance to the rumours that MBL has a whole raft of "super-transactions" in the pipeline, that may even include TLS. the broker is not valuing any of this in, but notes there is upside yet. Target rises from $97.73 to $102.28.
Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy, Medium Risk
November 15 2006
As usual, MBL has delivered a result ahead of guidance, and also 8% ahead of the broker (12% ahead on revenue growth, which the broker sees as a highlight). The composition was good, although costs were up, and the broker sees increasing staff remuneration as an issue.
UBS rates the stock as Buy 2
November 15 2006
A solid but lumpy result, the broker suggests, although core trends confirm a trajectory of 20% growth. MBL is difficlt to value, says the broker, given its "private equity" component of business. However, target rises from $82.50 to $85.00.
ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy
November 15 2006
Target $84.00 (was $82.00). The company reported a profit of $638m, the result leading the broker to lift its full year forecast by 3% to $1,216m. It also notes the bank's plans to establish a non-operating holding company make sense as transactions will then not be subject to
Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
November 15 2006
Target $88.00 (was $85.00). Headline profit of $730m was 6% above the broker's forecast thanks to the size of asset disposals in the period. The result has led the broker to lift its forecasts, with its profit estimates increasing in FY07 by 3.4% to $1,297m, in FY08 by 7.4% to
JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight
November 15 2006
An above-consensus result has led the broker to increase earnings by 5.4% in FY07 although no later changes have been made as operational earnings will be met with a higher tax rate. On a "vanilla" investment bank basis, the broker has increased the target from $97.73 to $102.
SB Citigroup rates the stock as Buy , High Risk
November 15 2006
Target $90.00 (was $86.00). The broker notes profit was about 6% higher than it had anticipated, with most divisions contributing to the result. Following the result the broker has lifted its forecasts in FY07 by 3.7% to $1,343m, in FY08 by 6.1% to $1,479m and in and FY09 by 5
Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy
November 15 2006
A solid result ahead of the broker, with subdued guidance as usual that will likely be exceeded. The broker is not, however, pleased about the increase in the staff compensation ratio, although this will provide upside if it reverts once more. Target increased from $80 to $85.
GS JB Were rates the stock as Marketperform, L/T Hold
November 15 2006
Profit of $730m was above the broker's forecast, leading it to lift its forecasts for FY07 by 3.6% to 517.1c and in FY08 by the same percentage to 483.5c. Despite this the broker suggests the deteriorating quality of the earnings is likely to result in a P/E de-rating, though
Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
November 13 2006
The broker is forecasting a profit result of $686m and a dividend of $1.01. It sees strong growth in revenues as likely but a weaker outcome in terms of equity accounting income, funds management performance fees and commodities trading. The broker's forecasts include a lik
Chart wise, was halted at the obvious all time high resistance and also some trend resistance, and now heading back to what should be pretty good support around $70-71. Will find more support at $65. We're due for a correction, so it could well possibly find it's way back there, supported by any US weakness. Santa rally still in train though so........ :2twocents
spitrader1
28th-November-2006, 10:02 AM
I'm not sure how MBL will hold up during any economic weakness, like US recession, but it gets pretty well rated around the traps. In Lonsec's 'model portfolio', and the following brokers seem to think it's a goer:
JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight
November 23 2006
The QAN deal adds substance to the rumours that MBL has a whole raft of "super-transactions" in the pipeline, that may even include TLS. the broker is not valuing any of this in, but notes there is upside yet. Target rises from $97.73 to $102.28.
Merrill Lynch rates the stock as Buy, Medium Risk
November 15 2006
As usual, MBL has delivered a result ahead of guidance, and also 8% ahead of the broker (12% ahead on revenue growth, which the broker sees as a highlight). The composition was good, although costs were up, and the broker sees increasing staff remuneration as an issue.
UBS rates the stock as Buy 2
November 15 2006
A solid but lumpy result, the broker suggests, although core trends confirm a trajectory of 20% growth. MBL is difficlt to value, says the broker, given its "private equity" component of business. However, target rises from $82.50 to $85.00.
ABN Amro rates the stock as Buy
November 15 2006
Target $84.00 (was $82.00). The company reported a profit of $638m, the result leading the broker to lift its full year forecast by 3% to $1,216m. It also notes the bank's plans to establish a non-operating holding company make sense as transactions will then not be subject to
Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
November 15 2006
Target $88.00 (was $85.00). Headline profit of $730m was 6% above the broker's forecast thanks to the size of asset disposals in the period. The result has led the broker to lift its forecasts, with its profit estimates increasing in FY07 by 3.4% to $1,297m, in FY08 by 7.4% to
JP Morgan rates the stock as Overweight
November 15 2006
An above-consensus result has led the broker to increase earnings by 5.4% in FY07 although no later changes have been made as operational earnings will be met with a higher tax rate. On a "vanilla" investment bank basis, the broker has increased the target from $97.73 to $102.
SB Citigroup rates the stock as Buy , High Risk
November 15 2006
Target $90.00 (was $86.00). The broker notes profit was about 6% higher than it had anticipated, with most divisions contributing to the result. Following the result the broker has lifted its forecasts in FY07 by 3.7% to $1,343m, in FY08 by 6.1% to $1,479m and in and FY09 by 5
Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy
November 15 2006
A solid result ahead of the broker, with subdued guidance as usual that will likely be exceeded. The broker is not, however, pleased about the increase in the staff compensation ratio, although this will provide upside if it reverts once more. Target increased from $80 to $85.
GS JB Were rates the stock as Marketperform, L/T Hold
November 15 2006
Profit of $730m was above the broker's forecast, leading it to lift its forecasts for FY07 by 3.6% to 517.1c and in FY08 by the same percentage to 483.5c. Despite this the broker suggests the deteriorating quality of the earnings is likely to result in a P/E de-rating, though
Credit Suisse rates the stock as Outperform
November 13 2006
The broker is forecasting a profit result of $686m and a dividend of $1.01. It sees strong growth in revenues as likely but a weaker outcome in terms of equity accounting income, funds management performance fees and commodities trading. The broker's forecasts include a lik
Chart wise, was halted at the obvious all time high resistance and also some trend resistance, and now heading back to what should be pretty good support around $70-71. Will find more support at $65. We're due for a correction, so it could well possibly find it's way back there, supported by any US weakness. Santa rally still in train though so........ :2twocents
kennas as always, you are a credit to ASF
kennas
30th-November-2006, 10:45 AM
Bounced off $71.00 ish as was anticipated. Now back up to $73.00. These support and resistance lines really are a good guide to where stocks could bounce or be stopped when used in conjunction with other market factors.
visual
13th-December-2006, 11:13 AM
Does any body know why macquarie isn`t trading today,is it on a trading halt but etrade failed to show it?Thanks.
Kauri
13th-December-2006, 11:21 AM
Does any body know why macquarie isn`t trading today,is it on a trading halt but etrade failed to show it?Thanks.
Not sure if it is the reason but I hear that QAN has rejected the T/O..
visual
13th-December-2006, 11:32 AM
Thanks Kaury,
it doesn`t explain the non trading though,or does it?
The buyers seem to be wanting to pay a higher price than the sellers but still no sales and no announcement of a trading halt.
Having said all that ,looks like it`s now trading,wonder what happened to all the 78 dollars offers,hmmmm
pacer
16th-January-2007, 02:02 PM
Anyone think this is a short?.....hittin resistance, low vol, MACD crossing......possible double top about to occour with second top being lower......
What do you think?
>Apocalypto<
2nd-February-2007, 06:15 PM
this is another short term winner
after the little sell off god it came back still holding now wonder how far into record territory it can push!
canaussieuck
2nd-February-2007, 06:47 PM
Anyone think this is a short?.....hittin resistance, low vol, MACD crossing......possible double top about to occour with second top being lower......
What do you think?
I'd bet it short for the week after next. Might have a little left in the tank yet. :2twocents
Cheers,
Halba
4th-February-2007, 10:13 AM
remember mbl going up a buck is only 1%. please don't think its a short after going up a percent!
Garpal Gumnut
4th-February-2007, 11:49 AM
remember mbl going up a buck is only 1%. please don't think its a short after going up a percent!
I'm waiting for the big correction this year to get into Macquarie. Garpal
Halba
4th-February-2007, 12:07 PM
hmmmmm mbl will have a good yr as it didn't have a great 2 past yrs
this is going higher buddy
>Apocalypto<
7th-February-2007, 09:40 AM
What happened yesterday?
Company report caused sell off or just nerves?
barnz2k
5th-March-2007, 04:20 PM
damn, looks like the fall might continue..
and today currently at $77.570
down almost $10 from a week ago.. its hit that 10% mentioned..
reece55
7th-March-2007, 08:03 PM
Any opinions here on MBL....
Bit of a recovery here today, but I sense it was the bargain hunters coming in.... I am looking for about sub $76 as the next target, which is the next identifiable support level.... The house of cards appears to have a dent in it's chest since the mini correction........
Cheers
Mofra
7th-March-2007, 09:23 PM
I'm waiting for the big correction this year to get into Macquarie. Garpal
Just out of interest, how are you determining your entry target and is this chart or fundamentally based?
reece55
21st-March-2007, 11:42 PM
Well, MBL has had an interesting couple of weeks since the major pullback...
What interests me is that there appears to be no buying pressure in the stock..... The last couple of days has seen the stock open at least a 1% higher and then gradually sold off throughout the day. Additionally, volume is way way down.....
Still think we will be seeing that $76 shortly...
Cheers
Bush Trader
10th-April-2007, 03:12 PM
Up over $87 today record highs, no announcements, why????????
barnz2k
26th-April-2007, 03:05 PM
Almost cracked the $90 mark!!so close, $89.95
Should have got more shares when I had the chance haha
Prospector
26th-April-2007, 04:25 PM
The other night on ABC they said that there was a race between CSL and MBL as to which was going to crack the $100 first. Both are going gang busters at the moment and I am pleased to say I picked them both up when they were in the $30 region!
Halba
26th-April-2007, 04:27 PM
The other night on ABC they said that there was a race between CSL and MBL as to which was going to crack the $100 first. Both are going gang busters at the moment and I am pleased to say I picked them both up when they were in the $30 region!
Any ann./reasons for the increase?
mickqld
26th-April-2007, 04:41 PM
Any ann./reasons for the increase?
There is market speculation that MBL is making a takeover play for Tabcorp. I'd say that is the main reason.
barnz2k
26th-April-2007, 06:54 PM
And we're over!
90.25
The other night on ABC they said that there was a race between CSL and MBL as to which was going to crack the $100 first. Both are going gang busters at the moment and I am pleased to say I picked them both up when they were in the $30 region!
*travelles back in time sells soul to invest in MBL*
Nice work man. I got in just after that 5% drop, if only id had more cash to play with and actually knew what i was doing.. haha
Trading halt because of a significant announcement about capital raising. Good thing?
barnz2k
17th-May-2007, 12:47 PM
MBL is going ballistic!
Trading halt for 1.5 days for allocation of new shares i think at $87 - too bad I missed it!
currently at a whopping $96!
recon its gonna crack the $100 mark or will it drop down after the trading has eased off?
Struzball
17th-May-2007, 01:43 PM
recon its gonna crack the $100 mark or will it drop down after the trading has eased off?
Hope so, $96.70 atm, craziness! I think we just want somethign to go up to $100 and it'll just drop back again once people realise it won't make it/isn't worth it (ie RIO)
barnz2k
17th-May-2007, 03:28 PM
High of 98.640!
Go baby go!
An aussie stock has never hit 100 before right??
Almost 2million in volume - does that mean 2million shares have traded today?
Wouldnt this be a huge number for mbl considering its price?
scsl
18th-May-2007, 05:41 PM
High of 98.640!
Go baby go!
An aussie stock has never hit 100 before right??
Almost 2million in volume - does that mean 2million shares have traded today?
Wouldnt this be a huge number for mbl considering its price?
Poseidon hit $280 in the 1970s, though that was on the back of the nickel boom.
Today's volume (shares traded) of nearly 2 million is large, considering its price, but you should look at this number relative to the average trading volume of MBL, which I'd say is just under 1 million in the past six months. This is just an estimate from looking at the graph. To answer your question, today's volume is quite substantial, especially when you factor in it's price.
Cheers,
scsl
The Barbarian Investor
25th-May-2007, 02:01 PM
Why the retreat of late?
Trading around $89.95 ATM not sure where its going to find support but its certainly getting some interest from buyers
Uncle Festivus
31st-May-2007, 09:55 PM
The House of Macquarie - The House Of Cards?
Enron Prophet of Doom, Jim Chanos, Down on Macquarie Bank
Jim Chanos has Macquarie Bank (ASX: MBL) in his sights. Uh oh.You may not know Chanos. But he's sort of infamous on Wall Street. And when he talks about stocks he hates, people listen.
Macquarie Bank Chief Says Assets Have Really Special Value (http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/macquarie-bank-3/2007/05/31/)
Julia
31st-May-2007, 10:30 PM
Let's not overlook the fact that it is decidedly in Mr Chanos' interests to talk down MBL since he regards it as a short. It's interesting that he has come out with this pronouncement when the stock has been running at or close to an all time high. Good time for him to short it, while he runs around the world getting publicity everywhere for the notion that it's all about to fall over.
He could be right.
However, he could also just be seeking his own personal advantage.
>Apocalypto<
31st-May-2007, 10:35 PM
Let's not overlook the fact that it is decidedly in Mr Chanos' interests to talk down MBL since he regards it as a short. It's interesting that he has come out with this pronouncement when the stock has been running at or close to an all time high. Good time for him to short it, while he runs around the world getting publicity everywhere for the notion that it's all about to fall over.
He could be right.
However, he could also just be seeking his own personal advantage.
Hard to say with MBL I take the great short call as very suss, you raised a very good point about his comment coming around all time highs good timing or calculated?
that last rally was very speculation driven and not to see it fall down so fast with many caught out fast trying to save whatever they could.
just my thoughts
reece55
31st-May-2007, 10:44 PM
The House of Macquarie - The House Of Cards?
Enron Prophet of Doom, Jim Chanos, Down on Macquarie Bank
Jim Chanos has Macquarie Bank (ASX: MBL) in his sights. Uh oh.You may not know Chanos. But he's sort of infamous on Wall Street. And when he talks about stocks he hates, people listen.
Macquarie Bank Chief Says Assets Have Really Special Value (http://www.dailyreckoning.com.au/macquarie-bank-3/2007/05/31/)
Uncle
I also note that Packer has recently divested his stake in MBL, and prior to the sale he was up in the top 15 holders.
The reality is that their accounts (and unlike most, I actually read them cover to cover) are the most complicated and the most subject to subjective accounting treatment of any of have seen on our exchange. Basically, I wouldn't trust the profit figure they report to the market - so many critical assumptions are made in them it's just ridiculous....
Openly, I lost money shorting this stock back @ $80.00, but closed out for some short term pain (learnt not to short a stock in a heavy uptrend the hard way) - but really guys, this one is to the ASX what Enron was Wall Street back not so long ago. No one questions there business model (which fundamentally is like placing a super heavy base on a flimsy foundation) because they just keep recording record profits, but what are these profits built on? MBL does well because our accounting standards allow them to cheat! Their satellite funds are just an excuse to write themselves bonuses, because the cash flies out each of the doors so quickly you don't know what's going on. And they have an insatiable appetite for doing a deal no matter what the cost in a highly liquid cash filled environment. I mean they value their funds based on EBITDA and illustrate % of gearing on EV - what an absolute crock!
Each to their own, but at this stage in the market, I will not touch MBL short or long. Granted, I will miss out on opportunities, but so be it - it's only one stock in the ASX 200!!!!
Cheers
Reece
barnz2k
2nd-June-2007, 10:54 AM
I was tempted to sell just under the 100 mark cause I figured it would drop back - but not this harsh!
But if I had i would get hit with the 50% rate cause Ive only had it a few months, but if I wait a year and it gets back to say 93 or something Ill still be up than selling higher with higher rate.. right?
Mofra
2nd-June-2007, 11:34 AM
The reality is that their accounts (and unlike most, I actually read them cover to cover) are the most complicated and the most subject to subjective accounting treatment of any of have seen on our exchange. Basically, I wouldn't trust the profit figure they report to the market - so many critical assumptions are made in them it's just ridiculous....
The reports for MAP alone are interesting enough reading - 2 years ago I baulked at buying MAP because it appeared management fees are drawn on the value of asset increase as well as the cashflows from the assets held.
MBL is an extremely hard stock to value because identifying what is cashflow & what is an asset revaluation (and the subsequent management fee drawn from it) is very difficult without, are Reece has alluded to, reading all the reports from every arm of the business (and Macquarie if run exactly like that: 6 seperate businesses).
I would suspect many hold due to the strength of the management team which is one thing I do believe strongly; Macquarie is extremely well managed and lead, and culturally is like almost no other company in the country.
>Apocalypto<
3rd-June-2007, 05:52 PM
MBL,
Long and medium term strong up trend.
Short term.
MBL was sold down to 86.46 lowest point it reached so far.
I see support found at 87.12 still under its negative 45degree angle but has not been pushed down to trend line from aug break out.
I am looking to open longs on MBL with stops under support. futher confrimation of support could be seen in 1 more test.
currently it looks like the market has decided this is a fair value for MBL.
Captain_Chaza
3rd-June-2007, 07:10 PM
You'l know if she's the next Enron if she fails to keep above $84
If she fails to hold up above this level
"Run for Shelter"
Don't expect any help from your usually fair to average technical support in these times
As was the case/times of Enron Lots of markets were mysteriously blacked out
So much for Highly-Geared / Leveraged investments I guess?
Only time will tell!
Salute and Gods' speed
Mofra
3rd-June-2007, 10:42 PM
So much for Highly-Geared / Leveraged investments I guess?
Only time will tell!
Macquarie are sitting on a massive pile of cash having just completed placements, they also have active treasuries in many countries so funds are not a problem.
As much as profits could be hurt (just like any fundie) by some softness in world markets, I'm certainly not expecting a major Enron/HIH like decline.
>Apocalypto<
4th-June-2007, 09:46 AM
Captain,
Mac bank was highly over priced that's why it was sold down.
Look's like the market has decided on a fair value for the stock anything that rises in a unnatural angle will come back down to it's true range after time that is one of the basics of supply and demand.
Mac has found support above it's Trend line and after a little more confrontation, I will look to go long.
84 is a break of it's trend so that would suggest more downside.
>Apocalypto<
14th-June-2007, 06:24 PM
took a CFD long on MBL today.
Found support on its trend line bounced off with very strong volume and broke out of its minor resistance.
lets see how it moves.
barnz2k
27th-July-2007, 06:45 PM
Drop in over 5% from yesterdays close, and Volume is a HUGE 6,516,767.
Whats going on? mass sell offs??
EDIT: ahh - NOTICE OF CHANGE OF INTEREST OF SUBSTANTIAL HOLDER
Awesomandy
27th-July-2007, 10:39 PM
At an educated guess, I think they would have quite a bit of exposure in US subprime mortgague as well, so it's not too suprising that they've lost about 5% today. :2twocents
mime
28th-July-2007, 09:23 AM
The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.
Bushman
28th-July-2007, 03:34 PM
The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.
Share price is following what is happening to 'buy out' firms in the States.
Quote from an article in The Age:
'Among the hardest-hit stocks was one of the buy-out firms that had gone public. Shares of the Fortress Investment Group dropped more than 6 per cent, to $US19.31.'
Just using this as an example, not saying it will fall 6%. Seeing it has already fallen 5% on Friday, I would not think it would fall another 5% on Monday. That would be quite a correction.
Just a word of caution for Monday. :)
Uncle Festivus
28th-July-2007, 04:56 PM
The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.
What value have you worked out for them? I'm sure a few analysts would like to know your method.
justjohn
28th-July-2007, 07:16 PM
The stock price on Monday is nearly certain to tumble. I think I'll probably pick some up soon as it's looking very under valued.
I think MBL wont be the only stock under value on Monday:p:there will be plenty of others up for grabs
reece55
29th-July-2007, 08:40 PM
What value have you worked out for them? I'm sure a few analysts would like to know your method.
I'm with UF here mime, picking a bottom here for MBL could cost you many pennies.
You have to remember what MBL does - it has a very large inventory of held for sale assets (i.e. investments in businesses) that it looks to flog/recycle through M&A and public floats. Due to the re-pricing of risk that has taken place, it is going to be a whole lot harder for MBL to flog these to the market in the near future. Add to that a bulk of their revenue has come from deal making - do you think the level of deals they processed last year compared to the year coming is bigger or smaller?
MBL is a big no no ATM - but this is just my opinion....
Cheers
Reece
>Apocalypto<
29th-July-2007, 08:53 PM
I'm with UF here mime, picking a bottom here for MBL could cost you many pennies.
You have to remember what MBL does - it has a very large inventory of held for sale assets (i.e. investments in businesses) that it looks to flog/recycle through M&A and public floats. Due to the re-pricing of risk that has taken place, it is going to be a whole lot harder for MBL to flog these to the market in the near future. Add to that a bulk of their revenue has come from deal making - do you think the level of deals they processed last year compared to the year coming is bigger or smaller?
MBL is a big no no ATM - but this is just my opinion....
Cheers
Reece
Hey Reece hope you were cash or close to it when the selling really got going.
I agree with Reece and UF,
MBL and the other main players anything in top 5 in value normaly take it the hearest MBL RIO really took a beating last week rio shead 10$ in the blink of an eye. the current trend in MBL on the short term is negative, I would stay far away from it but dont stop watching it!
waz
29th-July-2007, 10:12 PM
Having a look at what happened to MBL style banks in America, they didnt fare too badly.
Morgan Stanly down a bit, Merryl Lynch, went up in after hours trade, and Goldman Sachs only down about 0.5%. GS are launching some $20bil fund to invest in debt, previously expected to be only worth $12bil
The only investment banking style company to do badly was Lazard, down 3.42%
Considering MBL was around 89.50 before the big sell off, which i think was pretty low to begin with. I struggle to see why it should drop by more than 10%.
Its forward looking PE ratio is still pretty good. Especially when compared to BNB and AFG.
Ill have to play around with some graphs, but it would be good to see how far from their peaks the US banks have fallen. Looks around 20%, which is inline with the way MBL has fallen from 98 to almost 80.
Lachlan6
1st-August-2007, 11:59 AM
A bloke in the States writes an article on MBL (apparently the same guy who uncovered Enron, the similarities between the two companies being ah, hardly anything) and the stock plunges! Amazing how this environment causes mass psychology to panic at the slightest thing.
Which brings me to the question of, is this plunge a great opportunity. Technically, I would be waiting for a sign of reversal now (i.e double bottom, bullish divergence on lower low followowed by a breakout of some sort etc). However it may have hit some type of support here, being resistance turned support from Oct to Dec last year. Notice also that in the last four days of trading, they have all finished in white candles, indicating that despite the drops there is at least some follow through buying.
Emphasis again will not touch this one in the current market climate UNLESS it can show some sign of reversal. At the moment far away from that, but interesting after todays downward move.
kennas
1st-August-2007, 12:05 PM
Emphasis again will not touch this one in the current market climate UNLESS it can show some sign of reversal. At the moment far away from that, but interesting after todays downward move.I agree Lach. Couldn't trust buying any support levels at the moment. Fear is winning the game. People with cash are going to have a field day in a little while. This is one on my long term list along with WDC once (if) sub prime dust settles.
rub92me
1st-August-2007, 01:28 PM
Dropped (un)comfortably through the first resistance around 78 - next stop 75. But like Kennas and Lachlan6 - I won't be using my cash just yet to buy this. Must be interesting scenes in the Mac boardroom today. No big bonuses this round?? :eek:
Awesomandy
1st-August-2007, 01:35 PM
Dropped (un)comfortably through the first resistance around 78 - next stop 75.
Yep, it almost looks like a bottomless pit. I finally bailed out this morning, and won't be touching it for a while.
mime
1st-August-2007, 01:43 PM
How can the guy mark similarities between Mac and Enron? Does he have proof of fraud? Because that's what happened at Enron.
chops_a_must
1st-August-2007, 02:41 PM
I agree Lach. Couldn't trust buying any support levels at the moment. Fear is winning the game. People with cash are going to have a field day in a little while. This is one on my long term list along with WDC once (if) sub prime dust settles.
I'm not sure if anyone should be getting into financials for quite a while, as this is without doubt the top for them. Only one way from there.
I was paper shorting this a few weeks back and thinking it could go to 79 quite easily. I thought that was too ambitious. But as it's turned out to be not, I reckon this is going through $67 on the same analysis. You'd be spewing doing that cap raising at $90. Lol!
Ken
1st-August-2007, 03:11 PM
This is exactly what the market needed in my opinion.
Bringing back some value to stocks.
I think a lot of stocks were getting ahead of themselves.
I avoided the majority of blue chip companies but am now comfortable to set up a margin loan for some of the big banks for a 5 year term...
MBL
NAB
WDC
WOW
They are what I am looking at...
kennas
1st-August-2007, 03:29 PM
I think some analysts pumping MBL will be short changed end of year. Or, maybe it's been overdone? :confused:
1249 [Dow Jones] Citi analyst Mike Younger keeps Buy rating on Macquarie Bank (MBL.AU) and repeats A$122.88 price target, reckons today's share price reaction to concerns in credit markets is overdone. "The broad consensus view is that there has been an overreaction as far as credit spreads go globally, and it would seem that the market is shooting first and asking questions later," Younger says, noting U.S. investment banks have also been hit. Says MBL's model not under threat at this stage, says deal flow may be slightly impacted, although not to same extent as private equity deals. MBL down 7.5% at A$76.29.
barnz2k
1st-August-2007, 04:03 PM
again wishing got out when it cracked the $100!
Hopefully will recover from this to at least positive from my buy in!
Dang - a few words and this happens.
reece55
1st-August-2007, 04:34 PM
How can the guy mark similarities between Mac and Enron? Does he have proof of fraud? Because that's what happened at Enron.
Mime
I suggest you take a long hard look at MBL financial's - I have said it millions of times, the level of disclosure in their financials makes it impossible to properly assess the risks the business undertakes on a daily basis and many of the mark to market treatments are extremely subjective, particularly the investments they have in their satellite funds.
I'm not saying they are frauds, I am saying that the accounting regulations allow them to be artistic.
I honestly feel sorry for anyone who bought in the last couple of days hoping for a recovery, because it has been a much bigger blood bath than I ever could have imagined.
Interesting times...........
Cheers
Ken
1st-August-2007, 04:40 PM
One of the more spectacular days for MBL...
Some serious money lost in the last couple of days...
And I suspect today the asx factored in a fall in the dow overnight..
So we may see more red tommorow.
No late surge...
5900 all ords???
mime
1st-August-2007, 05:34 PM
Reece the reason Enron's problems wernt detected was because they committed fraud to conceal their debts. Saying to same about the Mac is a very serious statement. I don't care how much it drops as I sold out at $89 I'm just wondering when/if to buy again. The Mac bank could be the blue chip buy of the year at this price.
Uncle Festivus
1st-August-2007, 06:00 PM
Reece the reason Enron's problems wernt detected was because they committed fraud to conceal their debts. Saying to same about the Mac is a very serious statement. I don't care how much it drops as I sold out at $89 I'm just wondering when/if to buy again. The Mac bank could be the blue chip buy of the year at this price.
It wasn't that long ago that NAB traders covered up their trades too. It's good that you have such optimism for the 'House Of Cards', but how do you know when it's undervalued, as you haven't said how you are valuing them? Technical analysis? What price will you be buying at, or should we average down?
Are you buying this 'blue chip' at these 'bargain' prices?
reece55
1st-August-2007, 08:34 PM
Reece the reason Enron's problems wernt detected was because they committed fraud to conceal their debts. Saying to same about the Mac is a very serious statement. I don't care how much it drops as I sold out at $89 I'm just wondering when/if to buy again. The Mac bank could be the blue chip buy of the year at this price.
Mime - have a good look through my post again mate.......
I didn't say anywhere within my post that I thought MBL were frauds...... Plus, Jim Chanos wasn't saying MBL were frauds, he simply said they had severe related party issues and complex off balance sheet debt structures that had the potential to cause issues in the future as they were not properly disclosed with the body of the Companies financials. These are all true facts - draw your own conclusions.
I know the Enron story pretty well (hence my avatar), at the end of the game they (Enron) were fraudulent, but the factors that lead their accounting team to come up with the dodgy strategies in the first place (i.e. Raptors limited partnerships, etc) was actually a legal accounting treatment - mark to market valuation of their deals via a DCF model. The SEC and their auditors signed off to the treatment initially. Have a look at MIG - isn't this exactly what they are doing, revaluing assets using AASB 139 and 132 whilst the group bleeds through cash like no tomorrow.....
Look, you don't have to listen to me - I would say the chart tells you more than I could....
All the best
Reece
mime
1st-August-2007, 08:40 PM
I herd on the news that one factor in the big fall was that one of their property funds lost 25% because of the credit crunch.
Mofra
2nd-August-2007, 10:20 AM
I herd on the news that one factor in the big fall was that one of their property funds lost 25% because of the credit crunch.
Yes, US listed fund had a portfolio drop of over 4% however as it is a leveraged fund it equates to a 25% drop in fund value, of course translating to a drop in the management fee paid to the parent company. Would have to be effecting sentiment towards MBL as a whole, as capital tightening will effect their ability to both draw management fees from funds & conduct the M&A activity which is a core earnings driver.
Have to wonder if there were people who actually gearing into a geared fund specialising in US property in the middle of a sub-prime lending meltdown :eek:
mime
2nd-August-2007, 06:27 PM
Talk about volatile. The stock was up around 5% or so and closed the day at a loss. Anyone game enough to buy in yet?
waz
2nd-August-2007, 06:47 PM
MBL is now sitting on a P/E ratio of 12.44x :o
thats based on last years figures, not forward looking.
thats the lowest i can ever remember it. so even if profit drops by 20% (300mil ????), its still on a good earnings multiple, keeping in mind we are looking at the earnings multiple, not EBIT. Banks are normally valued on EBIT.
Can anyone explain why BNB and AFG with higher multiples went up today?
Doesn't make sense. Unless people are still thinking about that article that came out 2 days back.
This is looking like a good pairs trading combination over the next few days.
UPKA
2nd-August-2007, 06:54 PM
MBL is now sitting on a P/E ratio of 12.44x :o
thats based on last years figures, not forward looking.
thats the lowest i can ever remember it. so even if profit drops by 20% (300mil ????), its still on a good earnings multiple, keeping in mind we are looking at the earnings multiple, not EBIT. Banks are normally valued on EBIT.
Can anyone explain why BNB and AFG with higher multiples went up today?
Doesn't make sense. Unless people are still thinking about that article that came out 2 days back.
This is looking like a good pairs trading combination over the next few days.
i think its mainly because a lot of the hedge funds r not out of hte dark yet, we r yet to know the full damage of the subprime trouble, over the coming weeks more dirt will be digged out. since Macq has the most exposure to US out of the banks in Aust. ppl r getting worried. alot of them r sitting on quiet a juicy profit if they invested few yrs back, so prob its time to "profit take".
chops_a_must
2nd-August-2007, 06:57 PM
Can anyone explain why BNB and AFG with higher multiples went up today?
Doesn't make sense. Unless people are still thinking about that article that came out 2 days back.
I think it's because BNB are a little more prepared to disclose information. MBL couldn't say what their debt levels actually were and at their press conference at the AGM said they had NO exposure to US sub prime...
mime
2nd-August-2007, 07:31 PM
I think private equity could be in major problems in future if interest rates rise and profits drop. Can only wait and see.
Miner
3rd-August-2007, 01:44 AM
MBL is an interesting story. I wish Enron could say more on his research on Enron and MBL.
The Enron man who spoke in ABC radio about two months back saw a strong similarity between MBL and Enron . MBL revaluates its assets and then expands its equity. The process is just like housing bubble. The same house gets revalued again and again. The bank is happy to lend loan against that. So is MBL does. I am not suggesting to call them any thing else but taking the best advantage of the legal loop holes.
Even MBL gets recovered as their supporting agencies like Citi will keep buying to ramp the share up and emotion will work.
It will be interesting watch however for next one month if market euphoria does not subsidise then watch for your investment in Macquarie including super. It will be a domino effect as there are large no of funds who kept their investment on Macquarie as if a sacred cow.
I will revisit what I said in about a month.
Happy Investing
Miner
vishalt
4th-August-2007, 12:45 AM
Yeah I think Chanos (the guy who compared MBL to Enron) scared the balls out of a lot of people.
I'm scared to get into it myself, even though its looking really cheap fundamentally D:!
It's Snake Pliskin
4th-August-2007, 12:57 AM
How can the guy mark similarities between Mac and Enron? Does he have proof of fraud? Because that's what happened at Enron.
There is a website being sued by a bank in the states for libelous comments regarding the subprime issue.
theasxgorilla
4th-August-2007, 01:44 AM
I am not suggesting to call them any thing else but taking the best advantage of the legal loop holes.
Its not even legal loop holes, its part of the game...the debt to equity game. The shareholders are secondary...primary are the winners who work for the bank and who invent the schemes and make them happen. Who cares if MBLs equity is made out of thin air when you just used your bonus to pay off your house in Double Bay? By the time whatever it is that will eventually catch up with the likes of MBL actually catches up with them when you have no debt and you're being paid pension money out of super each month via some well secured annuity, tax free, until you die? So long as the ship don't sink before you've reached your goals it's going to become someone elses problem when you're gone.
Mofra
4th-August-2007, 01:29 PM
MBL is an interesting story. I wish Enron could say more on his research on Enron and MBL.
The Enron man who spoke in ABC radio about two months back saw a strong similarity between MBL and Enron . MBL revaluates its assets and then expands its equity. The process is just like housing bubble. The same house gets revalued again and again. The bank is happy to lend loan against that. So is MBL does. I am not suggesting to call them any thing else but taking the best advantage of the legal loop holes.
Even MBL gets recovered as their supporting agencies like Citi will keep buying to ramp the share up and emotion will work.
It will be interesting watch however for next one month if market euphoria does not subsidise then watch for your investment in Macquarie including super. It will be a domino effect as there are large no of funds who kept their investment on Macquarie as if a sacred cow.
I will revisit what I said in about a month.
Happy Investing
Miner
Miner,
The revaluation of assets rarely (if ever) occurs on the parent company balance sheet. Most of the infrastructure is partitioned off into seperate funds or listed entities, the revaluation occurs for the parent company to include the revaluation in growth statistic upon which management fees are drawn. Regardless of what they are involved in (everything from airports, hotels taxis, etc), MBL remains by and large a management & consultancy company
as much as a fundie. A burst asset bubble will wipe of the management fees but the parent compant is safe.
Now, with a massive restructure on the cards they will almost certainly another layer of protection between assets & the parent entity. This is a company governed more by growth & risk analysis than a standard organisation, which is why they have been able to so ably profit from the bullish economic conditions in recent times. The interesting part will be to see just how they change their structure in anticipation for the more difficult economic conditions ahead.
reece55
4th-August-2007, 01:58 PM
Hrmm.... the parent Company would be safe from harm if the asset bubble affected their sattelite funds..... Lets have a think about that....
1. Revenue impact - Revenue from fee and consulting commissions to associates and JV's for 2007 was over 1 Billion. Lets say that costs associated with such advisory was half (500 Mil). If their fee income was gone from associates, that would be 1/3 of net profit - sounds fairly material to me.....
2. Asset impariment - Net assets are 7.5 Bil, investments in associates 4 Bil - I think an impairment here would greatly affect their collateral.
Everyone needs to have a good look at what MBL actually is - the biggest deck of cards on the ASX. The Company restructure is not about asset protection, it's about getting around the Capital requirements of having banking licence for the investment banks head Company. It will actually increase risk, because the prudential requirements won't hold them back ....
In saying all this however, MBL have lasted this long ripping everyone off with their spin outs, so perhaps if the bank roll continues, everything will be ok..... I've heard this story before......
reece55
4th-August-2007, 02:10 PM
Its not even legal loop holes, its part of the game...the debt to equity game. The shareholders are secondary...primary are the winners who work for the bank and who invent the schemes and make them happen. Who cares if MBLs equity is made out of thin air when you just used your bonus to pay off your house in Double Bay? By the time whatever it is that will eventually catch up with the likes of MBL actually catches up with them when you have no debt and you're being paid pension money out of super each month via some well secured annuity, tax free, until you die? So long as the ship don't sink before you've reached your goals it's going to become someone elses problem when you're gone.
You've hit on the head ASX.G........
This is exactly the premise that MBL's is built on - if you really have a good think about the entire business model (and people did about a year and a bit ago), it is fundamentally flawed, because it is impossible for group to act in the best interests of:
1). The shareholders of MBL
2). The shareholders of their sattelite funds
3). The investors in their unlisted funds that conduct business with 1 and 2
In the end, who do they act in the best interest of? Themselves, because of the material level of bonuses the Company forks out.....
Mofra
4th-August-2007, 02:59 PM
Hrmm.... the parent Company would be safe from harm if the asset bubble affected their sattelite funds..... Lets have a think about that....
Not safe from harm... safe from an Enron type meltdown, as implied by posts above.
1. Revenue impact - Revenue from fee and consulting commissions to associates and JV's for 2007 was over 1 Billion. Lets say that costs associated with such advisory was half (500 Mil). If their fee income was gone from associates, that would be 1/3 of net profit - sounds fairly material to me.....
I doubt losing 1/3 of net profit would be enough to cause a financial meltdown in the majority of listed companies - MBL have one of the highest contract to fulltime ratios in the country, so have a higher degree of flexibility on overheads than many of their contempories.
2. Asset impariment - Net assets are 7.5 Bil, investments in associates 4 Bil - I think an impairment here would greatly affect their collateral.
So their recent raising of capital just prior to a global tightening of credit is another tick in the box of intelligent timing.
Everyone needs to have a good look at what MBL actually is - the biggest deck of cards on the ASX. The Company restructure is not about asset protection, it's about getting around the Capital requirements of having banking licence for the investment banks head Company. It will actually increase risk, because the prudential requirements won't hold them back ....
It is about both - less regulation and an increase in asset protection. Lumping MBL with the profiles of largely unregulated hedge funds & private equity firms seems a little unfair (and over the top) when you consider the difference in approach both to raising capital, internal risk policies & history of reporting.
In saying all this however, MBL have lasted this long ripping everyone off with their spin outs, so perhaps if the bank roll continues, everything will be ok..... I've heard this story before......
Reece, you've made some good points throughout this thread but the last paragraph sounds a little bitter. I wont speculate upon the resoans for this, although I am a little curious - are you hoping for an Enron style meltdown?
I can certainly see an impact on figures due to global credit tightening but a collapse is (pardon the pun) not on the cards.
reece55
4th-August-2007, 03:58 PM
Mofra,
Firstly, thanks for the intelligent debate here, sometimes opinions can become heated and people on boards can get a little abusive - you seem to be putting forward a logical and from what I can see objective opinion so I do appreciate that.
Let me say firstly, that I would be extremely disappointed if MBL went down in an Enron style collapse. Clearly, it would adversely affect Australia in ways that are too numerous to mention on one post. I sincerely hope that this is just a stage in the asset cycle that MBL go through and emerge safely so that investors funds are safe from harm.
However, to state that an Enron collapse couldn't happen to MBL is not true. They are the most aggressive M&A firm around internationally, they have been paying top $$ for all the assets they have acquired of late and pay the largest pay packets to maintain there staff. Like it or not, the similarities between MBL and Enron are numerous - only MBL is selling financial instruments and services, Enron was selling Gas distribution.
In reference to the their latest capital raising, I would say it was more opportunistic than intelligent - I mean, every man and his dog raised money before this latest correction/cash (the verdicts still out), why because scrip prices were high and cash was about, simple as that. Sure, it gives them a buffer, but how much considering their gearing levels, which are out of this world? But they raised less than 1 Bil - a material write down in their investments in associates could cause them to default on many of their loan covenants etc.
OK, happy to concede they have a good consultant to FTE ratio. This obviously decreases the profit downside risk.
I'm not bitter about MBL, I just think they are terrible at disclosing the risks associated with their and their satellite businesses. And for the average investor who doesn't understand financials, they are fooled about what is going on. They see a nice profit in MIG and think things are great - it's all just paper make believe money....
As I always say, one needs to draw their own conclusions in life, but MBL is a very interesting little debacle in corporate Australia and it will be interesting to see what arises out of them in the next 6 - 12 months...
Cheers
Mofra
4th-August-2007, 06:42 PM
Firstly, thanks for the intelligent debate here, sometimes opinions can become heated and people on boards can get a little abusive - you seem to be putting forward a logical and from what I can see objective opinion so I do appreciate that.
Likewise, we all learn from hearing someone else's viewpoint
Let me say firstly, that I would be extremely disappointed if MBL went down in an Enron style collapse. Clearly, it would adversely affect Australia in ways that are too numerous to mention on one post. I sincerely hope that this is just a stage in the asset cycle that MBL go through and emerge safely so that investors funds are safe from harm.
However, to state that an Enron collapse couldn't happen to MBL is not true. They are the most aggressive M&A firm around internationally, they have been paying top $$ for all the assets they have acquired of late and pay the largest pay packets to maintain there staff. Like it or not, the similarities between MBL and Enron are numerous - only MBL is selling financial instruments and services, Enron was selling Gas distribution.
I still see a major difference between Enron & Macquarie.
Macquarie are very quick to transfer assets off to subsidieries or (more commonly) package off assets under managements to "sophisticated investors" (yes the term makes me chuckles as well). Enron were less diversified, and the infrastructure assets were vital to the daily running of their core business, not just to one of the 6 major businesses they operate in like MBL.
MBL are deriving asset management fees from annually revaluing infrastructure assets held in subsidieries - not a very clean practice, but one that is fully disclosed, and is not directly comparable to including forward earnings as trade debtors on a balance sheet.
M&A activity will dry up moving forward, however staff & intellectual property overheads are easier to dispose of than forward order gas supply agreements & the associated infrastructure arrangements.
In reference to the their latest capital raising, I would say it was more opportunistic than intelligent - I mean, every man and his dog raised money before this latest correction/cash (the verdicts still out), why because scrip prices were high and cash was about, simple as that. Sure, it gives them a buffer, but how much considering their gearing levels, which are out of this world? But they raised less than 1 Bil - a material write down in their investments in associates could cause them to default on many of their loan covenants etc.
Agree that it was opportunistic, however I still see it as showing a reasonable measure of market conditions in the near future. Majority of their loans are held off balance sheet or against assets already majority held (although not managed) by the same "sophisticated investors", againt consisitent with a practice of sheilding the parent company from as much exposure as possible.
OK, happy to concede they have a good consultant to FTE ratio. This obviously decreases the profit downside risk.
I'm not bitter about MBL, I just think they are terrible at disclosing the risks associated with their and their satellite businesses.
1 point each I would think here - yes, happy to agree that MBL exist in an evironment where selling yourself is rewarded, disclosing the risks is done only "in accordance with Macquarie's standard practice of complying with all relevent regulations under (insert act here)"
As I always say, one needs to draw their own conclusions in life, but MBL is a very interesting little debacle in corporate Australia and it will be interesting to see what arises out of them in the next 6 - 12 months...
I think MBL are fairly unique in the Australian corporate landscape, so even those with no direct interest in Macquarie would keep an eye on them to see what they are doing.
Taxis, Credit Cards, London Water supply (London market blindsided by a ridiculously low bid for the FTSE, brilliant stuff)... nothing like a diversified industrial for a bit of economic soap opera in the past few months :)
Gundini
6th-August-2007, 10:33 AM
Who would have ever dreamed you would see MBL in the $69's...:eek:
Has lost 30% in 3 months... OMG, a serious pullback...
barnz2k
6th-August-2007, 12:17 PM
Ouch. This is really painful now.
I knew today would hear after fridays efforts.
How the going to recover from this one? and how long will it take!?
Gundini
6th-August-2007, 12:32 PM
How longs a piece of string?
It seems like a bottomless pit...
And to think I thought it was a bargain buy at around $90 :eek:
GreatPig
6th-August-2007, 12:44 PM
May find support at the 38.2% Fib level ($68), which roughly matches with earlier resistance between $68 and $70.
Next support after that is the 50% Fib level at $58.60, which matches the previous support level at $59-$60.
So could be support around the current price, or on down to $60!
Cheers,
GP
canaussieuck
6th-August-2007, 01:36 PM
I had a sell stop CFD order on this today but it didn't get activated, thankfully. It looks like buyers are coming back in at this level, still may be a shorting opp, thoughts anyone? GP?
Cheers,
mime
6th-August-2007, 02:05 PM
The question is when/if to buy back in. I've got a feeling that in 6 months time the stock price will be back around the $90 mark again. Of course for legal reasons the stock could also go down even more ;).
GreatPig
6th-August-2007, 02:15 PM
Personally I wouldn't consider shorting at a significant support level.
But then, what do I know... :D
GP
Awesomandy
6th-August-2007, 02:42 PM
This is seriously looking like a ship sink. An ex-college who has just left us last Fri to start work at MBL received a floatie for his farewell gift. We never thought he would really have to use it! :eek:
explod
6th-August-2007, 02:56 PM
The question is when/if to buy back in. I've got a feeling that in 6 months time the stock price will be back around the $90 mark again. Of course for legal reasons the stock could also go down even more ;).
Would be pleased if you would be so kind as to elaborate on your feeling that the SP will move back up to $90 in six months. I am hesitant to take note of posts without qualification
canaussieuck
6th-August-2007, 04:15 PM
Personally I wouldn't consider shorting at a significant support level.
But then, what do I know... :D
GP
No thats good advice GP! I guess i was a bit peaved for it going through my sell stop this morning, would have paid off handsomely too. I guess i better wait for another go at it later.
Cheers,
mime
6th-August-2007, 07:28 PM
Would be pleased if you would be so kind as to elaborate on your feeling that the SP will move back up to $90 in six months. I am hesitant to take note of posts without qualification
Then you shouldn't take any notice of what I say. I came to that conclusion because I seen it time and time again that after a stock drops significantly it has recovered to it's same levels later down the track. Just look at the NAB.
vishalt
6th-August-2007, 08:31 PM
lol this is a buying opportunity.
the selling is based on fear & over-reaction rather than fundamentals, seriously macquarie banks makes billions a year - whats $300m (from hedge funds) that its not even directly responsible for gonna do?
and that counts for most other Australian financial demons as well, BNB & Allco barely have any exposure
im accumulating this baby before it shoots past $100 in the medium term
Buffettology
6th-August-2007, 08:41 PM
One off losses like this have always prooven incredible buying opportunities!
Coke, American Express anyone?
Mofra
6th-August-2007, 09:17 PM
One off losses like this have always prooven incredible buying opportunities!
Coke, American Express anyone?
That is assuming it is a one off loss. Part of the pullback seems to be based on the fear that the tightening of world credit will also lead to a reduction in M&A activity, which is a major source of MBL cashflow.
Happy to let this one form some new sort of support base prior to considering a long position.
aussienorm
6th-August-2007, 09:20 PM
lol this is a buying opportunity.
the selling is based on fear & over-reaction rather than fundamentals, seriously macquarie banks makes billions a year - whats $300m (from hedge funds) that its not even directly responsible for gonna do?
and that counts for most other Australian financial demons as well, BNB & Allco barely have any exposure
im accumulating this baby before it shoots past $100 in the medium term
Only the little wheels are falling off...............wait for the big ones to fall off!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!:cool:
explod
6th-August-2007, 09:59 PM
Then you shouldn't take any notice of what I say. I came to that conclusion because I seen it time and time again that after a stock drops significantly it has recovered to it's same levels later down the track. Just look at the NAB.
And look at Telstra two, it didnt'. Many thought that HIH would bounce back and lost over 95%. In fact NAB you mention is also in a down trend and looks like it could continue lower. As a fundamentalist and trend follower for many years I have learned never to assume on any experience of the past. You can only act on the direction of the action. ........the future we do not know yet. Fundamantals tell us what should happen but never tells us when. On fundamentals the US Stock Market price earnings ratio is way too high, so a crash has to happen, it has started to happen but we dont' know when it will all pan out, but as just mentioned by another above it is going to go a long waaaaay doooown before it is over.
My purpose in pursuing your post is that I see the situation on all markets at the moment as dangerous and that many on the forums with not a lot of experience may get hurt from statements that are not backed up by a full consideration of the facts. The forums are no place for games.
In my humble opinion of course
Awesomandy
7th-August-2007, 07:41 AM
I agree with most that this is now a good buying opportunity. However, since we can never tell where the bottom is, it is probably much better to take a wait and see approach. It's still not too late to buy in after getting confirmation for a new trend.
waz
7th-August-2007, 08:33 AM
Hi Explod,
Just continueing from what your saying 'US markets are overpriced' do you have any facts to back this up.
Are you talking about any particular sector? And what measurement are you using.
Since we are in the MBL thread I assume we are talking about US investment banks. Just doing a quick search. Goldman Sachs is on a current PE of 8.75. Other banks are very similar.
Please elaborate more. ie. at what multiples are you expecting something to be overpriced, evenly priced, and underpriced.
personally, at current multiples (and assuming things dont get much worse) i think the us is fairly evenly priced. although the tech sector in general i find is overpriced. i cant justify a company such as yahoo sitting on a PE of 45+, (my reason being the risk isnt worth any possible gains above the risk free rate).
explod
7th-August-2007, 10:48 AM
Hi Explod,
Just continueing from what your saying 'US markets are overpriced' do you have any facts to back this up.
Are you talking about any particular sector? And what measurement are you using.
Since we are in the MBL thread I assume we are talking about US investment banks. Just doing a quick search. Goldman Sachs is on a current PE of 8.75. Other banks are very similar.
Please elaborate more. ie. at what multiples are you expecting something to be overpriced, evenly priced, and underpriced.
personally, at current multiples (and assuming things dont get much worse) i think the us is fairly evenly priced. although the tech sector in general i find is overpriced. i cant justify a company such as yahoo sitting on a PE of 45+, (my reason being the risk isnt worth any possible gains above the risk free rate).
Waz, a very good question. There is no simple answer. It is why I am a trend follower, but also make my own assessment on fundamentals before entering a trade.
The problem with P/E ratios is that they are based on forcasts for the industry for which a company may operate. This then means that in fact they can be based on an opinion. These forcasts got right out of hand leading up to the 1930's crash and I suggest this is the case now.
Another problem is the Index, the Dow has only a few selected blue chips the NYSE and NASDAQ have many and are more akin to our All Ords.
Another is debt, assets owned (so called) on margin are being counted as assets, when it is far from the case. Banks of course thrive on this movement of funds taking fees on the way through and interest all the while. Macquaries is feasting well on it. But what happens when liquidity begins to dry up, as now, the P/E ratios at the moment do not reflect that yet. So I have a problem with the outlook.
This issue is beyond me to outline properly, my knowledge is ample for my own purpose and in any case the area is subjective and others will have differrent political, social and economic views.
However for those wanting to see another side to Wall Street,and to dig into the answers raised, Robert R Precter Jnr.,s text "Conquer the Crash" John Wily & Sons 2002 is an excellent piece of education. Another "Financial Armageddon" Michael PANZER, Kaplan Publishing 2007 is excellent and will send a chill up your spine.
explod
7th-August-2007, 02:42 PM
Further to the last, just thought the following excerpt from "Conquer The Crash" which touches on P/E ratios may be of interest.
Precter, at Page 61. .......Standards & Poor's, has just bowed to pressure to change the basis of its earnings reports to "operating earnings" rather than total company earnings so that the reported P/E will henceforth be about half of what it really is. They have begun to tack these ratios onto the old ratio's eighty-year histor as if they are the same thing. Operating earnings omit several items, the main one being interest payments for debt service. HELLO! Debt service is what is killing industry! Leaving it out is like leaving torture equipment out of a description of a dungeon. The desperation within the financial world to avoid reporting "bad news" (i.e., the truth) is obviously immense.
How do so many public and prefessional investors justify holding such expensive stocks today? The latest issue of Money magazine (March 2002) quotes a manager at one of the largest stock mutual funds in the world: "You have to trust them. To some degree they become faith stocks." Money concurs, "Investors must rely as much on gut instinct as on objective analysis. Sometimes an extra large helping of hope is required." One could hardly utter a worse guide to life, much less to the assumption of financial risk. Those of us dedicated to objective financial analysis aren't always right. But those who rely on extra-large helpings of trust, faith, hope and "gut instinct" always regret it." end quote
And for your idea Mime that because a stock has behaved in a certain way in the past, it will do so again, is ok perhaps, but "gut instinct" is not for me
Buffettology
7th-August-2007, 06:01 PM
No doubt, we have to wait and see the Fed and RBA outcomes before buying in.
Could give us some great bargain hunting opportunities!
vishalt
8th-August-2007, 08:04 PM
I jumped in at $70, like I said the market is full of crap and MacQ is a fundmental powerhouse.
It's not directly responsible for this hedge funds.
Those hedge funds HAVE NOT collapsed (yet), they only stand to lose a portion of their money.
Even if does collapse its barely going to dent the financial rolls royce.
MacQ generates way too much money, and its management are really top people.
It's P/E ratio is 12, cheap compared to a sector average of 15 and an AllOrds average of 17.
Analysts still maintain their bullish forecasts, I think Goldman & Meryll still retained a $106 target.
Ken
8th-August-2007, 08:09 PM
I work at the NAB, and was speaking to a financial adviser and there were hedge funds not directly related to MBL, but they had lost 80% of their value due to the fact they were heavily geared.
Dont know much about hedge funds, but it sounded nasty.
No offence if anyone lives in Toorak in Melbourne, but I hope it was your funds seeings as your houses price have gone up 700k in the last 3 months.
theasxgorilla
8th-August-2007, 08:16 PM
Further to the last, just thought the following excerpt from "Conquer The Crash" which touches on P/E ratios may be of interest.
Precter, at Page 61.
From Wikipedia on Prechter & EWI:
"In July 2007, the Hulbert Financial Digest, published by Dow Jones, reported that Elliott Wave International's Elliott Wave Financial Forecast had a 15-year annualized return of negative 25.4%/year and a return of negative 17.8% over the life of the newsletter."
Unfortunately, in light of the last 5 years of economic, share market, and property boom activity it looks a lot like Prechters book isn't worth the paper it's printed on. A slightly different slant on the old saying it's not time-in the market, but timing the market that counts.
Awesomandy
8th-August-2007, 09:29 PM
It's not directly responsible for this hedge funds.
Those hedge funds HAVE NOT collapsed (yet), they only stand to lose a portion of their money.
Even if does collapse its barely going to dent the financial rolls royce.
MacQ generates way too much money, and its management are really top people.
It's P/E ratio is 12, cheap compared to a sector average of 15 and an AllOrds average of 17.
Analysts still maintain their bullish forecasts, I think Goldman & Meryll still retained a $106 target.
Some hedge funds that invest in the sub prime debt market have done very badly, and I won't be suprised seeing a mass of redemptions coming out of those funds as credit risks are being re-assessed. There are some funds that would hedge credit risks, but those that trade on the speculations of credit improvements are most likely hiding under a rock and sheding tears at the moment.
It is also interesting to see how MBL generates its returns. The bank buys assests with its capital, refinances, and then onsold to satellite funds (most likely with other investors' money) for a higher price. The cycle then repeats itself as it financially engineer its earnings. With the economic conditions of the past few years, the bank has made a substantial amount of money partly due to the low cost of debt. But if the global credit market tightens, and the cost of debt increases, it will be much harder for the bank to maintain or increase its earnings growth. Currently, the P/E ratio is around 12. However, if the growth of incomes slows, or, in the worst case, becomes negative, the P/E ratio will be much higher. So, I think that holders of MBL should keep a careful eye on the global credit market, as any negative signs here might point to a possible drop in the bank's growth, and share price would most likely follow suit.
Therefore, personally, I have closed out my positions in MBL last week, and have no immediate intentions of re-entering. Of course, if the sub-prime disaster turns out to be a storm in a teacup, MBL may be testing new heights again soon. But, on the other hand, the bank will find it very tough to continue its current growth rate if the credit market deterioates. :2twocents
falconx
9th-August-2007, 02:16 AM
No offence if anyone lives in Toorak in Melbourne, but I hope it was your funds seeings as your houses price have gone up 700k in the last 3 months.
Has this been published anywhere credible recently? I heard Kew has gone up like ~60% over the last year, is this fact or fiction?
explod
9th-August-2007, 06:19 AM
From Wikipedia on Prechter & EWI:
"In July 2007, the Hulbert Financial Digest, published by Dow Jones, reported that Elliott Wave International's Elliott Wave Financial Forecast had a 15-year annualized return of negative 25.4%/year and a return of negative 17.8% over the life of the newsletter."
Unfortunately, in light of the last 5 years of economic, share market, and property boom activity it looks a lot like Prechters book isn't worth the paper it's printed on. A slightly different slant on the old saying it's not time-in the market, but timing the market that counts.
Yes the timing is everything but in the bigger picture few can do it at all, the reason I am a trend follower.
However the last five years of property boom was manufactured by the US Fed moving interest rates to almost zero, same with the carry trade using low cost Yen, it starting to move up is creating bigtime problems. Prechter's book reads as if it was written today. It does not proclaim a time-line and is fundamentaly sound. What the delay in the economic down turn has in fact done has set us up for a much greater shakeout than would have been the case if sensible policies to tighten credit around 01/02 had occurred.
As for his investment company, many companies have had a hard time in the current climate. The sorts of measures taken by the US Fed have been pretty irresponsible and I suppose one would not have believed it possible five years ago.
Just as telling, and just as irrellevant to our discussion, the US Dollar Index in the last five years is negative 33%
barnz2k
9th-August-2007, 01:52 PM
open was strong and back over 80 but downhill from there??
Seems a few stocks similar - very strong opening price but then falling back, even below yesterdays close.
Ken
14th-August-2007, 09:54 PM
Presently MBL is paying around about a 5% dividend full franked.
So even you are holding the stock for 3-5 years... you will get a return of some sort. When The bull market resumes its overall upward trend which it has done on previous corrections. It is definatley possible that MBL is a $120-$150 stock in 5 years.
I looked back at BHP when it was $24, after it had run to $32. And BHP is now $35. Its all part of it.
Is the same happenign with MBL here. Is this power house of a company presenting an opportunity for the people who missed out?
Time will tell.
Looking at the sums, and the general feeling before the subprime stuff, MBL was basically the king of the ASX and there were talks about it taking of RIO and BHP.
The trend changes a lot of peoples veiws on stocks. i have found this with the specs i am holding. Nothing has changed. If stocks didnt have corrections then the market would be very stale. Fear greed factor....
waz
15th-August-2007, 02:13 PM
With a current price of 66.70 and a 12 month target price of 111.42 (average, and most of these valuations have been done this month)
The upside potential is a staggering 67% :o
Can any of you think of a time when any Australian bank has had an upside, or even downside potential of more than 50%? Not me
This doesnt make sense, even if earnings were to fall by 20% in the next year, ie EPS from 570 to 450, at a price of 66.70, mbl is sitting on PE ratio of 14.8
In other words, even though most pundits are expecting profit to increase from anywhere from 0 to 18%, even with a 20% fall in profit, whats that, about 300mil. Its future PE is still very attractive.
What do u guys think a worst case scenario is?
Even a 400mil fall in profit mbl is still a bargain.
YELNATS
15th-August-2007, 02:28 PM
The sell-off in MBL has been astonishing. All the value accumulated in about the last 11 months has disappeared in the last month.
I've not held MBL in the past because of their high pricing, but it's hard to avoid accumulating at these levels.
Gundini
15th-August-2007, 02:28 PM
I am watching it tumble as I speak, off 30% in 2 months...
At some point today, the Big Boys will snap this up. They have been selling it down in the last hour/day/week/month/months....
Bush Trader
15th-August-2007, 03:06 PM
The comparison to Enron a few months ago was easily laughed off by many, however I think there a few more beginning to empathise with the "House of Cards" theory
Broke support at $68 next major support $58 minor support $63.
Cheers
BT
Lachlan6
16th-August-2007, 08:42 AM
Next major support is around $59.0 after breaking strongly through the 150 week EMA. Also corresponds to 50% level from 2002 lows. If this fails, then the next support will be $50.00. But lets see what happens if it hits $59.0 first. Looks ominous at the moment.
>Apocalypto<
16th-August-2007, 09:24 AM
Mime - have a good look through my post again mate.......
I didn't say anywhere within my post that I thought MBL were frauds...... Plus, Jim Chanos wasn't saying MBL were frauds, he simply said they had severe related party issues and complex off balance sheet debt structures that had the potential to cause issues in the future as they were not properly disclosed with the body of the Companies financials. These are all true facts - draw your own conclusions.
I know the Enron story pretty well (hence my avatar), at the end of the game they (Enron) were fraudulent, but the factors that lead their accounting team to come up with the dodgy strategies in the first place (i.e. Raptors limited partnerships, etc) was actually a legal accounting treatment - mark to market valuation of their deals via a DCF model. The SEC and their auditors signed off to the treatment initially. Have a look at MIG - isn't this exactly what they are doing, revaluing assets using AASB 139 and 132 whilst the group bleeds through cash like no tomorrow.....
Look, you don't have to listen to me - I would say the chart tells you more than I could....
All the best
Reece
Hats off to you Reece you nailed it.
I still remember you made many warnings about MBL long before the true Carnage started, I like i said in another post hope and expectation will be there until u choose not to see it!
Good on u Reece!
reece55
16th-August-2007, 09:45 PM
Hats off to you Reece you nailed it.
I still remember you made many warnings about MBL long before the true Carnage started, I like i said in another post hope and expectation will be there until u choose not to see it!
Good on u Reece!
Cheers Joe, it's been a dramatic fall out.....
I expected some fairly heavy selling, but MBL is where it was some two years ago in four weeks. I was expecting 70 as a first target, not 62. I also expected it would take a lot longer! Still, it's not the heaviest sold of investment bank - BNB and AFG have actually fared worse, and I much prefer BNB model from an operational perspective from MBL's.....
Interestingly, MBL have been the only ones not saying a thing about their exposure to the liquidity crisis - any rally IMO is a selling op, I would have thought there is more bad news to come from the "house that debt built"!
All the best guys, difficult trading conditions for anyone but the short seller ATM.
Cheers
chops_a_must
16th-August-2007, 10:22 PM
Interestingly, MBL have been the only ones not saying a thing about their exposure to the liquidity crisis - any rally IMO is a selling op, I would have thought there is more bad news to come from the "house that debt built"!
Yep. I don't understand why these others have been punished so much in comparison, when it looks to me like they have done the "righty". Unlike MBL :rolleyes:
Garpal Gumnut
16th-August-2007, 10:53 PM
Cheers Joe, it's been a dramatic fall out.....
I expected some fairly heavy selling, but MBL is where it was some two years ago in four weeks. I was expecting 70 as a first target, not 62. I also expected it would take a lot longer! Still, it's not the heaviest sold of investment bank - BNB and AFG have actually fared worse, and I much prefer BNB model from an operational perspective from MBL's.....
Interestingly, MBL have been the only ones not saying a thing about their exposure to the liquidity crisis - any rally IMO is a selling op, I would have thought there is more bad news to come from the "house that debt built"!
All the best guys, difficult trading conditions for anyone but the short seller ATM.
Cheers
I couldn't agree more.
The house that debt built.
Enclosed is a chart showing previous support and resistance in the low 40 level.
I wouldn't be surprised if it tested that again in the next few weeks.
Garpal
Ken
16th-August-2007, 11:37 PM
I think MBL will be a mess around $58 to $65 untill it builds again.
$40 out of MBL will not happen.
Garpal Gumnut
17th-August-2007, 09:06 AM
I think MBL will be a mess around $58 to $65 untill it builds again.
$40 out of MBL will not happen.
I bet you a meat pie it does. Its a debt play. Debt is not fashonable at present. It has inflated assets and overpaid staff. I like mine with peas.
Garpal
Ken
17th-August-2007, 05:56 PM
You're on.
Just a steak meat pie.
No sheppards pie.
If MBL goes to $40 you should be shorting it.
Are you currently shorting MBL? I think there is too much support around $60.00.
If it breaks down through $55 then $40 is more likely... cause theres no support at $50 or $45.
Garpal Gumnut
17th-August-2007, 11:58 PM
You're on.
Just a steak meat pie.
No sheppards pie.
If MBL goes to $40 you should be shorting it.
Are you currently shorting MBL? I think there is too much support around $60.00.
If it breaks down through $55 then $40 is more likely... cause theres no support at $50 or $45.
After watching London this evening and the first 1/2 hour of NY tonight and djia and ftse heading north it looks like I may have to buy you that pie. Lets see how it pans out.
Garpal
Ken
18th-August-2007, 12:08 AM
Well I need it cause I got MBL at $62 and sold out.
But the market is a funny place. There is no way the gains will hold on the US.
The market was up 600 points effectively in 2 days.
Thats some monster profits they will be taking.
But I do believe we are fairly close to bottom.
The effects of the sell off could mean when volatility stops the stocks ma drift back down a little.
Everyone is bargain hunting now but if the market rockets back up past 6000, you would think we are just in for more big sell offs...
All in all the volatility has spooked a lot of people.
I think the problem is real. As small miners will struggle to float companies now as it would suggust with AXE being over subscribed heavily but falling by 60%.
Adelaide uranium company has cancelled its float.
The market needs to settle, so dont over pay for the stocks that have fallen.
MBL will probably trade between $60-70 for a while.
Much like RIO traded between $70-$80.
Who knows? But not much has really changed. The housing problem in the US has been known for a while, the media have done a big job of ramping it.
If the market fell for no reason then it wouldn't be the stock market.
The media have to write something....
Mofra
19th-August-2007, 02:09 PM
Interestingly, MBL have been the only ones not saying a thing about their exposure to the liquidity crisis - any rally IMO is a selling op, I would have thought there is more bad news to come from the "house that debt built"!
reece55,
There is a simple reason why they wont comment on their exposure to the liquidity crisis.
They don't know.
Their overseas mortgage operations are safe (they do not offer low docs outside of Oz) and their existing securitised mortgage book in Aust. (AUS $20b+) is protected, as you have alluded to in earlier posts it is their ability to raise capital & conduct M&A that will be the primary activity curtailed by the recent volitility.
Basically, their fall has been very much a speculative one, the market guessing what the likely impact will be. With so much debt funding either complete or effectiovely passed on to investors, the short term picture doesn't seem anywhere near as gloomy as one would think. The medium term picture is where the interest lies.
Not often MBL is considered a yield play...
reece55
19th-August-2007, 10:36 PM
reece55,
There is a simple reason why they wont comment on their exposure to the liquidity crisis.
They don't know.
Their overseas mortgage operations are safe (they do not offer low docs outside of Oz) and their existing securitised mortgage book in Aust. (AUS $20b+) is protected, as you have alluded to in earlier posts it is their ability to raise capital & conduct M&A that will be the primary activity curtailed by the recent volitility.
Basically, their fall has been very much a speculative one, the market guessing what the likely impact will be. With so much debt funding either complete or effectiovely passed on to investors, the short term picture doesn't seem anywhere near as gloomy as one would think. The medium term picture is where the interest lies.
Not often MBL is considered a yield play...
Hi Mofra......
I'm more worried about their exposure to their trading arm.... Per their annual report, they 15.5 Bil held as trading assets - that's 2x net equity. In addition, they say Maximum daily value at risk is 15.22 Mil - however, this of course is based on 95% of market conditions - so my question is that in a situation that has occurred where we have conditions that are essentially black swan events happening all over the world, how have they fared? One stat I draw your attention to is the notional amount of their derivative contracts outstanding - $0.8 Billion Dollars AUD in March 07- a wrong move here could be deadly! Surely by now they know how they have fared in relation to trading instruments (in fact, they should be able to mark to market it on a daily basis). Or are they having problems mark-to-marketing their books because some of their investments no longer have a liquid market.
I think that if you review the chart, you will see that something is fundamentally wrong here. Is this a correction for MBL, or the beginning of a downtrend? In reference to your yield play comment, is it really a yield play if net profit is down 30% next FY, which it could very well be (especially if there are any impairment issues)? As the payout ratio is fixed (or relatively fixed), this would mean that the yield really would be exactly what it was at $90 at our now deflated price of $60.
I am also thinking about the medium term and the medium term is that debt is going to be a hell of a lot more expensive. Cheap debt and hot equity markets are what have made MBL a good (paper profit) business - lets see how the model lasts in the conditions we will be exposed to over the next couple of years.
Put it to you this way - if it rallies to above or about $75, I will be shorting the *&^* out of the stock. Just my independent view however.
All the best
chops_a_must
19th-August-2007, 10:51 PM
black swan events
Why oh why is our state's emblem blamed for everything?
Oh I see, bit of revenge for my SA jibe Lol!
Some of these managers need a good taste of Popper if you ask me...
makybe_05
20th-August-2007, 07:20 PM
Hey,
This is my first post on this forum and what I've seen so far it looks like a good place to hang around. Anyway, heres my dilemma. Ive got about $700 saved up through my part time job and i thought that i moswell invest it into the sharemarket seeing that ive had a few good experiences lately and its better than it sitting in the bank. Thing is that i want to sell these shares in at the end of the year for my motorbike. I am thinking Macquarie atm at maybe 68 if i can get it that low??. Just wondering what everyones thoughts are. Thanks so much in advance too by the way, glad that theres a few people that i can bounce some ideas off.
Also if i was to buy macquarie bank what do you think i should set my buying price at? Ive had a look at the market depth and by what ive seen it looks like it might be heading in the north direction again tomorrow, or i could just be completely wrong.
Nyden
20th-August-2007, 07:28 PM
Hey,
This is my first post on this forum and what I've seen so far it looks like a good place to hang around. Anyway, heres my dilemma. Ive got about $700 saved up through my part time job and i thought that i moswell invest it into the sharemarket seeing that ive had a few good experiences lately and its better than it sitting in the bank. Thing is that i want to sell these shares in at the end of the year for my motorbike. I am thinking Macquarie atm at maybe 68 if i can get it that low??. Just wondering what everyones thoughts are. Thanks so much in advance too by the way, glad that theres a few people that i can bounce some ideas off.
Also if i was to buy macquarie bank what do you think i should set my buying price at? Ive had a look at the market depth and by what ive seen it looks like it might be heading in the north direction again tomorrow, or i could just be completely wrong.
Since you only have $700, and it's taken you a while to save that up - I would certainly advise in keeping it out of the market at the moment. Especially since (at least I believe?) you're inexperienced.
$700 into a relatively safe stock won't make you a lot of money, especially within a few months; even with current volatility, and at the moment, a spec (risky) stock is probably too risky.
Even if you manage to make 30% in a matter of months, your brokerage fees & tax would eat a lot of that up, as you're investing with a low amount.
Personally, I would keep the $700 in a savings account; at least until the market settles down, & you have a little more to invest.
But, it's great that you're thinking ahead, & saving for something you want!
makybe_05
20th-August-2007, 07:55 PM
Yea thanks for the advice. I think I'm going to buy say 10 MBL shares in the next couple of days. Ive got about $1000 worth of QBE, and I'm extremely pleased after todays profit results. Any other stocks that you would recommend?
Mofra
20th-August-2007, 09:07 PM
Hi Mofra......
I'm more worried about their exposure to their trading arm.... Per their annual report, they 15.5 Bil held as trading assets - that's 2x net equity. In addition, they say Maximum daily value at risk is 15.22 Mil - however, this of course is based on 95% of market conditions - so my question is that in a situation that has occurred where we have conditions that are essentially black swan events happening all over the world, how have they fared? One stat I draw your attention to is the notional amount of their derivative contracts outstanding - $0.8 Billion Dollars AUD in March 07- a wrong move here could be deadly! Surely by now they know how they have fared in relation to trading instruments (in fact, they should be able to mark to market it on a daily basis). Or are they having problems mark-to-marketing their books because some of their investments no longer have a liquid market.
I think that if you review the chart, you will see that something is fundamentally wrong here. Is this a correction for MBL, or the beginning of a downtrend? In reference to your yield play comment, is it really a yield play if net profit is down 30% next FY, which it could very well be (especially if there are any impairment issues)? As the payout ratio is fixed (or relatively fixed), this would mean that the yield really would be exactly what it was at $90 at our now deflated price of $60.
I am also thinking about the medium term and the medium term is that debt is going to be a hell of a lot more expensive. Cheap debt and hot equity markets are what have made MBL a good (paper profit) business - lets see how the model lasts in the conditions we will be exposed to over the next couple of years.
Put it to you this way - if it rallies to above or about $75, I will be shorting the *&^* out of the stock. Just my independent view however.
All the best
Howdy Reece,
Fair points - structure wise, the outstanding derivative contracts include hedging activity (the $15.22m at risk funds are the net risk from their trading activities after derivative positions are considered). As for not knowing the full impact of the recent volitility, this is more in relation to their system of asset valuation determining mangement fees drawn from subsidieries - up to date asset valuations would be cumbersome if done on such a regular basis. Treasury would know about positions & funds at risk up to the minute.
I still like the business model overall, yes there could be difficult times ahead but their core business is in reality risk transferance which can still profit in difficult market conditions. As for the yield play comments, no it was not a serious comment (three dots used to denote irony) but I'm sure the "click on commsec reserach, look at the PE & Div Yield, buy" crowd would be rubbing their hands together with glee.
Cheers
barnz2k
21st-August-2007, 12:42 PM
Yea thanks for the advice. I think I'm going to buy say 10 MBL shares in the next couple of days. Ive got about $1000 worth of QBE, and I'm extremely pleased after todays profit results. Any other stocks that you would recommend?
Id have to agree with Nyden. Though If you'd bought on Friday you might have made almost 10% yesterday ;), but its still crazy at the moment. Dual anns, 1 on either side - that another of their investments was hit, but new plans for funding helped the big recovery. So still going either way now. Of course I hope it goes straight up as im below my entry point now, but be cautious..
Example, currently Stgeorge is offering 6% on their dragon direct account - no term deposists, no fees etc. not much but better than nothing or negative.
56gsa
30th-August-2007, 10:36 AM
is this an inverted H&S??? although with descending neckline probably not to be trusted - could see a run to the 78-79 resistance - if high volume breakthough at that level then MBL may have turned?
from http://www.incrediblecharts.com/technical/head_and_shoulders.htm
Inverted Head and Shoulders
With inverted head and shoulders the neckline is drawn through the highest points of the two intervening peaks. A downward sloping neckline signals continuing weakness and is less reliable as a reversal signal.
The extent of the breakout move can be estimated by measuring from the top of the middle trough up to the neckline. This target is then projected upwards from the point of breakout.
Volume Confirmation
High volume on the first trough,
Moderate volume on the second trough,
High volume on the second peak,
Low volume on the third trough, and
A sharp increase in volume at the breakout.
Trading Signals
Go long at breakout above the neckline.
Place a stop-loss one tick below the last trough.
There is frequently a correction back to the neckline, which then acts as a support level. Go long on a reversal signal and place a stop-loss one tick below the support level.
Never trust an inverted head and shoulders pattern where the neckline is clearly descending (the second peak being lower than the first). The more level the neckline, the more reliable the pattern.
Fab
17th-September-2007, 11:00 AM
I am not sure if there is an existing thread on MBL as I could not find one when doing a search (surprising so). Please merge if this is the case.
MBL looks surprisingly cheap at current level. Recommendation from ABNAMRO remains at $110. It is currently trading at $77. There is a large possible upside there. I am wondering if anyone has done any technical analysis on this stock and how it looks like in the short term. Looking at some CFD trading on it.
zt3000
27th-September-2007, 06:10 PM
MBL From low of $70 on the 10th sept has moved to nearly $84 today. 18.5% gain.
Are we due for a "breather" before the next bolt?
Technical and Fundamental analysis welcome :) Thanks
shares
27th-September-2007, 06:57 PM
has anyone else received the 'explanatory memorandum'?
"proposal to restructure the macquarie group which will result in a new non operating holding company macquarie group limited becmong the ultimate listed parent entity of the group"
it is a 200 page restructure booklet outlining key issues surrounding the restructure. 1 current mbl share (record date 12 Nov) will equal 1 macquarie group limited share if the memorandum is passed.
barnz2k
27th-September-2007, 08:57 PM
If i have been sent it I wont see it cause im overseas..
This could be good or play havoc on the share price.
Would "MGL" then encompass more of their divisions or something?
Awesomandy
29th-September-2007, 09:25 AM
The restructure is basically to get around the current regulations that it has to have a certain amount of capital on the balance sheet before it can make acquisitions. Just think of it as MBL borrowing money to buy itself. There's nothing to worry about, really. If MBL was based overseas in the first place, the regulations there would mean they don't need to do this to get around the Australian regulations.
zt3000
3rd-October-2007, 10:22 AM
"The Millionaries Factory" - Have a look at the video
at the moment, its the millionaires factory for the shareholders as well as the board:D [although not so if you bought in at 95 before the correction]
mime
5th-November-2007, 01:01 PM
Stocks been removed. Does anyone know what's going on? Is there some big news? I wonder what the future brings.
reece55
5th-November-2007, 01:05 PM
Stocks been removed. Does anyone know what's going on? Is there some big news? I wonder what the future brings.
Change of code mate... try MQG, or the Macquarie Group.....
Due to the corporate restructure.
Cheers
doctorj
5th-November-2007, 01:28 PM
I've changed the subject to reflect the new name/code of 'MQG - Macquaire Group. Thanks for the heads up.
Spineli
6th-November-2007, 12:02 AM
Hi,
I'm a little confused as to the break up of Macquarie into A) Macquarie Group (comprising its corporate finance, investment banking groups, and specialist funds)...B) Macquarie Bank (containing all its other operations)
This morning at 10am, both MBL and MQG opened at $82.25 or thereabouts. MQG fell $4.30 (about 5%) to $79.80 after listing (with a volume of 1.8mil shares traded), whereas MBL shares traded steady at $82.30 (with a volume of 12,000 shares traded).
Why was the new MGQ stock listed at the same closing price as the previous stock and what differences lie in trading MGQ as opposed to the (previous MBL)?
stoxclimber
6th-November-2007, 12:17 AM
The MBL trades were option exercise.
There is no more MBL. Every MBL holder was given 1 share of MQG for each MBL share. There is only MQG.
transit
6th-November-2007, 03:38 AM
Does anyone know how to edit the code from MBL to MQG in commsec? Or do i need to ring Commsec and ask them to do it?
Fab
6th-November-2007, 07:24 AM
Does anyone know how to edit the code from MBL to MQG in commsec? Or do i need to ring Commsec and ask them to do it?
It's not still trading. Financial journalists are full of........But if you go look at SEATS right now, it's pretty clear that it's not trading.
M34N
11th-November-2007, 11:36 PM
According to E*Trade, you can trade MGQ shares as MBL shares, so if you had MBL shares before the company transfered across to MGQ, you can actually execute a sell using the new code and it will execute. Would most likely be the same across all trading websites, but don't take my word for it, check with them first.
Anyway, on other news, anyone expecting good news from MGQ regarding there results due out this Tuesday 13th Nov? Wonder how the market will take it if the results are anything less than $1 billion for the 2nd half.
Pager
12th-November-2007, 09:56 PM
Like other financials it has been overdone, picked some up late last week at just over $79, reports tomorrow i think.
If todays rise in its price is anything to go by it may be a goody :), not that insider trading happens on the ASX :mad:, as we all saw when Rio was up over a $1 the day before BHP announced its takover plans, funny how everything else got smashed that day though :confused:
M34N
12th-November-2007, 10:24 PM
Like other financials it has been overdone, picked some up late last week at just over $79, reports tomorrow i think.
If todays rise in its price is anything to go by it may be a goody :), not that insider trading happens on the ASX :mad:, as we all saw when Rio was up over a $1 the day before BHP announced its takover plans, funny how everything else got smashed that day though :confused:
Was thinking something similar, notice the trend occurred on Friday as well when it was up 3% as well... could be partly explained by a nice rebound in US financials on Friday despite the overall negativeness. Noticed it followed NAB up when they reported good results on Thursday, so it may just be optimistic buying by investors hoping for some good news in the financial sector for once more so than insider trading.
And yes it reports tomorrow. Been waiting a while for the results, I'm tipping a solid result.
Julia
13th-November-2007, 11:44 PM
This morning I still had MBL appearing on my p/f page but this evening it has been deleted. No replacement with MQG and the total value of all shares is down accordingly. Anyone else finding this with E-trade?
Phone call to them this morning elicited the info that it will all be sorted by 19th November. Not sure how I'd go if I wanted to sell it before then!
barnz2k
14th-November-2007, 10:58 AM
Mine now has MQG listed but doesnt seem to have quite cleared yet, hasn't got all the values. Not 100% where I stand but I think im just down from entry, crap.
nick2fish
14th-November-2007, 06:57 PM
MQG has appeared on E Trade pf but it won't have your original buy price just 0.00 , so save yourself a phone call and go to Detailed View - then at the tools for that stock pick edit and put your original buy or average buy price
resourceboom
14th-November-2007, 10:35 PM
thanks for the info nick, as I needed that knowledge to fix up the old SMSF e trade account. cheers mate
nick2fish
14th-November-2007, 11:37 PM
your welcome, but you might want to exit as those chumps at goldman sachs just give MQG the big downgrade:rolleyes: ...they should keep a closer eye on the on their own turf....(City Bank,Countrywide,Merrill Lynch and the like)....Oh well the shame about it is people actually listen to these rich kids. I'm hanging on Go MQG:)
Timoshev
15th-November-2007, 05:02 PM
ABN Amro Craigs (NZ) still have a target price of $110. Feel recent acquisitiosn sheow funding for good assets still available and they they are cashed up and ready for more. They rate risk to projected 08 earnings to be upside and despite volatility linked to finacial sector performance they are well diversified and actualy not so strongly correlated. Very happy to hold...
nick2fish
15th-November-2007, 08:29 PM
I have 3 brokers saying average targets over $100.00 per share and only early this year was knocking on the door as the first axa stock to pass the 100 mark.... Since then.. sub prime.. when it was presumed guilty and despite proving emphatically very minimal financial loss and reporting back to back profit gains remains out of favor. It will hit it straps soon and now is probably...in its new restructured mode... quite happy to fly under the radar for a bit.
Trader Paul
16th-November-2007, 01:35 PM
:)
Hi folks,
MQG ..... restructuring has provided a rare opportunity to find what
companies they are investing in, without wading through a lot of
unwanted details:
NMS Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BLY Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
TDO Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BSG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MAP Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BBI Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MCW Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
SKI Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
RPX Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
NWK Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ILF Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
PRU Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
PMA Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ARR Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ADU Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BJT Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
DML Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
TSO Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
GMG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
DXL Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
HYO Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
SFY Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
GCG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
CFK Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
AAQ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
CNP Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
SPN Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
RCY Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
AEZ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MMG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
ENV Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MPG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BVA Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
DSQ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MOF Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MCQ Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MLE Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
GGE Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
BLU Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
TGF Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MCG Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
MGR Change in substantial holding from MQG
BUR Change in substantial holding from MQG
GRD Becoming a substantial holder from MQG
have a great weekend
paul
:)
=====
The Mint Man
27th-November-2007, 01:41 PM
Just had a look at MQG, was at $75.15.
With the santa rally, it will be interesting to see where to from here over the next couple of months. Also got a 145c div in Jan.
Good buying at these prices IMO.
Cheers:D
EDIT: Ok, in the time I wrote this message it went back to $75.70:o:p:
The Mint Man
27th-November-2007, 05:16 PM
Sorry people, I obviously gave my opinion a bit too late because it didn't stick around those levels too long.:cool: I'm actually a bit surprised at MQG's movement today considering it was a red day on the market.
I got in at $75.50 so I'm pleased that it finished up at $78.20:eek7: wasn't expecting that, but I'll take it anyway. As I said in the last post, it will be interesting to see where to from here.
I noticed that a couple of you (nick2fish, Timoshev) have mentioned that a few brokers have a target of over $100 for MQG, is that still the case? and where can I see this?
Cheers:D
YELNATS
27th-November-2007, 06:36 PM
With the santa rally, it will be interesting to see where to from here over the next couple of months. Also got a 145c div in Jan.
Good buying at these prices IMO.
I noticed that a couple of you (nick2fish, Timoshev) have mentioned that a few brokers have a target of over $100 for MQG, is that still the case? and where can I see this?
Cheers:D
Be nice if it happens. But when brokers provide forecasts such as these they don't seem to nominate the date by which they think these prices will be reached. Or do they, am I missing something in interpreting such forecasts?
Re the santa rally, will we be having one this year?
M34N
27th-November-2007, 07:39 PM
Sorry people, I obviously gave my opinion a bit too late because it didn't stick around those levels too long.:cool: I'm actually a bit surprised at MQG's movement today considering it was a red day on the market.
I got in at $75.50 so I'm pleased that it finished up at $78.20:eek7: wasn't expecting that, but I'll take it anyway. As I said in the last post, it will be interesting to see where to from here.
I noticed that a couple of you (nick2fish, Timoshev) have mentioned that a few brokers have a target of over $100 for MQG, is that still the case? and where can I see this?
Cheers:D
Yes I tend to agree. I have a batch of MQG at $78.50 (from a week ago) and today's performance was good, very happy to hold for the dividend. Notice the swing today was from $75.02 at the lowest to $78.20; it closed at a day high too with some strong buying at the close.
I have also read similar price targets, I actually remember reading one a while back for $110, but I don't think it will go much further than $85 or near there for the near term, noticing a fair bit of resistance around $83-84 at the high points and around $75 for the low points lately. Guess it depends on the DOW and how the credit crisis pans out for the long term price though.
Timoshev
27th-November-2007, 09:22 PM
Mint Man, the $110 figure comes from ABN Amro Craigs in NZ. They had them at $115 until early August when they dropped the target to $110. Latest revision/confirmation of $110 target by them was 14 November.
In ABN's view the MBL outlook statement for Y08 was "subdued" and overshadowed a strong result. I believe typically MBL/MQG have a preference / tendancy to understate and over deliver. ABN went on the say that although short term market volatility may have some impact MQG are cashed up and well placed to make "boutique acquisitions" and develop longer term earnings.
As far as I know MBL have indicated that their exposure to US sub-prime issues is minor. Will be interesting to see what pickings they might take over the over next 6 -12 months.
I'm in for the long term and not too bothered about short term fluctuations.
The Mint Man
27th-November-2007, 10:00 PM
Be nice if it happens. But when brokers provide forecasts such as these they don't seem to nominate the date by which they think these prices will be reached. Or do they, am I missing something in interpreting such forecasts?
Re the santa rally, will we be having one this year?
True they don’t usually say when. As for the santa rally, I was reading an article on the days trading in the US on yahoo this morning, it was saying that they have reached a correction of 10% since October, also he pointed out that the US federal reserve will put $8 bil in the US market this week, Hopefully that will help the US along its way and in turn make the Australian markets even stronger.
Heres some snips from that article:
Yahoo finance
Monday November 26, 6:20 pm ET
By Tim Paradis, AP Business Writer
The Dow's decline from its mid-October closing high is now 10.03 percent, putting the blue chip index past the 10 percent threshold that signifies a correction........
The Fed said it would inject $8 billion into the banking system on Wednesday. The amount of money is somewhat larger than in past years at this time......
The Fed's decision to inject liquidity into the market isn't unusual for this time of year. Last year, the Fed added a net $21.9 billion into the system from the Monday following Thanksgiving until the first week of January.
Lee Adler, publisher of The Wall Street Examiner, said the overall level of recent liquidity injections is consistent with past years....
click here to read more http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/071126/wall_street.html?.v=45
Yes I tend to agree. I have a batch of MQG at $78.50 (from a week ago) and today's performance was good, very happy to hold for the dividend. Notice the swing today was from $75.02 at the lowest to $78.20; it closed at a day high too with some strong buying at the close.
Yeh I will be holding for the divy, and the swing was incredible IMO. I thought I had got in at the wrong time when I bought at $75.5 today because immediately after it dropped to the very low $75's, and I mean straight after! Big movements in short time today.
As far as I know MBL have indicated that their exposure to US sub-prime issues is minor.
This is true, they are hardly affected.
Thanks for the reply guys.
Cheers:D
The Mint Man
29th-November-2007, 11:05 AM
MQG going berserk today, 5% up at the moment.
Volume is also very high at over 2,200,000 in just the first hour of trade:eek::eek7::D. Just to compare, the average for the last 5 days was just 1,891,889;)
Going very well indeed!
Cheers
tronic72
29th-November-2007, 03:58 PM
MQG going berserk today, 5% up at the moment.
Volume is also very high at over 2,200,000 in just the first hour of trade:eek::eek7::D. Just to compare, the average for the last 5 days was just 1,891,889;)
Going very well indeed!
Cheers
MIG is Pushing 6% today. I'm happy because got in at 2.90. Anyone know what's going on?? I suspected the stock was undervalued but this is a bit full on for normal trading.
Edit: 6.1%
Edit2: 6.79%
Fab
11th-December-2007, 12:16 PM
Finally MQG seems to be bouncing back strongly. Looked pretty cheap recently and if you believe their previous annoucement they won't be affected by subprime therefore it should go much higher I believe:)
