LAF - Lafayette Mining

[Mofra]

Howdy,

Have been following this one for a while - although the past few weeks have been relatively uneventful up until yesterday (Friday 27/05). A few large buys came in throughout the day to plow through the depth to push it up to 19.5c, with a 19c close. I expected some sort of after market announcement with this sort of unexpected movement & volume, however none was forthcoming.

Is anyone aware of any news reports or articles that may have stirred any interest? For the record, I hold however believe there is a fair bit of resistance at 20c.

[chicken]

LAF are starting to produce....they had there first Gold poure and sales..are now supported by the Philipines Goverment and its ready to have production in Copper.silver, gold....one to watch..read there latest anouncements....I am holding stock....make your research

[johnno261]

LAF are starting to produce....they had there first Gold poure and sales..are now supported by the Philipines Goverment and its ready to have production in Copper.silver, gold....one to watch..read there latest anouncements....I am holding stock....make your research

Things have turned a little sour for LAF of late. Don't expect S/P movement for some time now. I took a little loss on this stock @ 22cents which turned out to be a good loss if theres such a thing!!

[brerwallabi]

Prefer others in the Philipines, this has had some sour news, check out CMX on the forum.
www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=24568#post24568

[chicken]

Prefer others in the Philipines, this has had some sour news, check out CMX on the forum.
www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=24568#post24568
You dont seem to understand...LAF is not out to mine gold but copper, zinc, silver... Gold as well but its not as important as Silver or Copper....because of the quantity involved...LAF had some bad publicity of late but the Philipino Goverment will sort it out..they want the money...so lots of support by the Philipino Goverment..it will all sort it self out in due time...

[brerwallabi]

You dont seem to understand...LAF is not out to mine gold but copper, zinc, silver... Gold as well but its not as important as Silver or Copper...

Chicken, yes I do understand, I do know a bit about LAF,what I am saying is if you want to make a play on Filipino miners right now CMX is going up and that is what I am on, LAF is going down and now down to 16.5 and traded most of the day @ 16 and then closed because of a paltry little trade of 3150 @ 16.5, I bet Johnno is glad he got out @ 22cents. Do you suggest Johnno should have held and see 30% of his capital disappear?????

[chicken]

Chicken, yes I do understand, I do know a bit about LAF,what I am saying is if you want to make a play on Filipino miners right now CMX is going up and that is what I am on, LAF is going down and now down to 16.5 and traded most of the day @ 16 and then closed because of a paltry little trade of 3150 @ 16.5, I bet Johnno is glad he got out @ 22cents. Do you suggest Johnno should have held and see 30% of his capital disappear?????
This will all blow over by Xmas and as they are switching from Gold to copper and silver and zinc.. the locals will all become happy again...and the SP will rise again......accidents do happen even in the best run company.....

[lewstherin]

Hi guys

With Zinc and Copper looking good to run as commodities, thought I'd raise this one back to life - more something to keep on the radar but also to warn the peeps on this forum.
I spent about 3 hours last night researching this so I thought I'd share the love given I'm riding a rocket thanks to the research of Young Trader.


I discovered LAF trawling for good entry stocks leveraged on metals and was amazed at the price vs the proven reserves the company is sitting on.
Was really bullish about this until I did a media scan for the market conditions of LAF.

LAF's major interest is found in the Phillipines and the mining operation is almost near production.
However a couple of accidents causing water pollution last year has ignited a massive anti-mining outcry lead by a small group of Catholic bishops.

At this point LAF is dead in the water unless they can convince the government to let them continue with mining. At this point I'd say it could go either way. Having read several Manillia news stories on LAF and the whole mining situation the whole thing looks seriously corrupt and dodgy - the government needs backing from the bishops to keep voters.

To their credit, LAF have recruited an ex-govt resources minister to get some local edge and of course use said minister's political connections.

Long story short:
If LAF manage to get back into production this stock will rocket.
Currently its trading way below its previous 2005 levels (before the whole environmental thing). If LAF got productive in today's market - which they could be in about 3 months after getting back their mining approval - they are easily worth 1.5x their 2005 high level.

Until then, its a seriously speculative shot...
Even if LAF do get productive, the political risk due to those crazy bishops means it could get stopped again...

[rederob]

lewstherin
I agree: It's got incredible potential to bust north once the "go ahead" is given.
Please call me when it jumps!

[stiger]

Outcome will be sooner rather than later.Do not lose faith .I heard it from a friend of a friend of mine. :)

[Sharplay]

Morning All.

Could be an interesting couple of days for Lafayette. DENR's actioning will have to take place soon. If the Phillipines Government are wanting to be pro mining and encourage foreign investment, then they are going to have to be pro LAF.

It will be woe or go. But at this stage all indications are LAF is in with a fighting chance.

Watch for the price to rocket if go ahead is given.

Rgds.

[lewstherin]

Yeah, if the sovereign risk is removed from the equation (ie the Phili govt goes green light), this stock is one of the most undervalued around.

But I really don't know whether I want to bet on the whims of Philipino politicians. I think they'll give a go-ahead - the stock will move up - but later the govt will change their minds...so if you gonna ride this one, have a tight stop-loss imo.

[dreilly]

i have been contemplating getting in on this seeing that its at 10c today. however this news report sounds pretty damning. Although i do get the feel that this is a one sided story.
http://www.bulatlat.com/news/5-41/5-41-albay.htm

[stiger]

Re: trading halt. Could this be the announcement we have been waiting for? I feel it is and it will be positive news. :o

[snopig]

hi there all.

Well it looks like some good news for all LAF holders.

Govt to allow temporary re-opening of mine!

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/topofthehour.aspx?StoryId=41568

Now lets see if they have done their homework. Time to buy!!!

Unfortunately I got cold feet some time back and sold :banghead: Could be time to look at buying again!!!

Time will tell.

[Sharplay]

Good news if you hold some.

Shame that it has come at a time when the ASX and metals are getting a bollocking. It could however hold the market down initially tomorrow allowing people to jump on the potential wagon for a relatively cheap entry fee.

I have still got a small bundle and like snopig might make the most of upcoming buying opportunities.

Rgds

[stiger]

Laffing now or shortly. What a difference a week makes. :o

[Sharplay]

Up 17% today. A slight sign of life in what has been a dead (or dying) horse (or bear) in the last year.

It may well be a good time to come back into production with the rejuvenated copper and zinc markets.

This company is massively undervalued but somewhat risky. There are definitely big buyers today though. Saw one order of 1.5 mill that went through in the morning. Could well be some of the top 10 holders increasing their stake.

There may be a few more 17% jumps if production is all good in the next couple of months.

Happy trading.

[stiger]

OLE!OLE!OLE! About time line up boys and girls will be a nice collect.I hold :D

[Sharplay]

Up 36% in the last week. :)

[PorscheACE]

LATEST NEWS!!! Lets see how the market reacts to ninemsn post.....

Foreign firms keen on Lafayette mine
Thursday Sep 7 20:01 AEST
Three foreign firms are interested in investing in the Philippine gold and copper mine of Australia's Lafayette Mining Ltd if Manila allows it to reopen, the company's lawyer said.

The Lafayette project on Rapu Rapu island, one of 24 being promoted by the government to revive the country's once-mighty mining sector, suspended operations three months after pouring its first gold in July 2005 due to two cyanide spills.

The government allowed the mine to conduct a test run from July 10. That was supposed to end on September 9 but lawyer Bayani Agabin said Lafayette had asked for a 60-day extension.

"If things work out properly, we hope to get a permanent listing order," Agabin told Reuters on the sidelines of a plant tour on the remote island southeast of Manila.







He said prospective investors included firms from Singapore, Australia and Canada but declined to identify them. Agabin said officials from the three firms had visited the Rapu Rapu mine.

"The discussions are still very general at this stage," he said.

Rapu Rapu has completed the first two phases of the test run - a five-day water test and a nine-day water and rock test. The third phase, which simulates actual operations using ore and chemicals, should end on Saturday.

"It will be easier to convince the public that we are compliant with standards if we hold more test runs on our pollution facilities," Agabin said.

Officials from the Mining and Geosciences Bureau said the extension would also enable Lafayette to debug its new base metals plant before it begins commercial operations.

"As far as the technical merit of the 60-day expansion is concerned, we see no problem with it," said Michael Cabalda, head of the bureau's Mining Environment and Safety Division.

Environmentalists and some influential Catholic bishops have opposed a Philippine law allowing for 100 per cent foreign ownership of mines.

Before the suspension, Lafayette was forecast to generate revenues of $US350 million ($A457.07 million) a year from production of 10,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate, 14,000 tonnes of zinc, 50,000 ounces of gold and 600,000 ounces of silver.

In June, Lafayette paid a fine of 10.4 million pesos ($A270,323.21) imposed by the Philippine government after the spills at the mine.

South Korea's LG Co International Ltd and the South Korean government's resources investment arm KORES together hold 26 per cent of Lafayette Philippines Inc.

The rest is owned by the Australian company.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------

Anyone holding LAF? What are your thoughts?

[rederob]

I think LAF will be cruelled by its hedge book.
If it's not restructured quickly a lot of moola will be needed to keep Rapu Rapu rapping.

[deadone]

i bought into LAF on friday @ 10.5 cents, i see that there are a lot of sellers who got burnt on this one so i expect the price rise to be very slow ,but it should be a good long term hold

[deadone]

and also
LAF expect $350 mill per year sales from
10,000tonns of copper concertrate
14,000tonns zink
50,000 ounces gold
600,000 ounces silver.

[namkey]

The Typhoon hit at the wrong time for Lafayette. Just when it looked like things were finally about to take off, bam. Anyway, I'm still gonna keep watching this one. There plenty of potential there, it just needs to stop running into set backs.

Once operations restart (approx 6 weeks, from the announcement), they are expecting to make their first shipment of concetrate about a month later. So this might start it's run around January/February (without any more delays).

[namkey]

It made its move yesterday, just as I predicted 2 months ago. Plenty of pull-back today though. I wouldn't expect this one to hold it's value, more likely to rise on announcements and then slowly fall until the next one. That's assuming all of the bad announcements are in the past and won't be back to haunt it.

[stretch]

Share price consolidated Fri, and probably will again tommorrow.
I have small holding and will look to increase if it gets to 10c or below.

LAF POSITIVES.
Typhoon season almost over.
Production starting again and amounts will only increase as year goes on.
Good polymetallic resource with potential for upgrades.
Mgmt have put in alot of effort to get em back on track.
Very cheap producer and low transporting costs.
Dogged by long term bad luck.Hopefully the "voodoo doll" has been put to rest for good.
Phillipines Govt want them producing.
Daytraders who bought on pending positive news will almost all be out by now.

LAF NEGATIVES.
The dilution factor after raising $$$ to pay for hedging issues, and the unexpected(typhoon) causing further delays/extra costs.
Their past may hinder their s.p progress.
Alot of people who bought in 04/05/06 are sitting on up to a 50% loss.Alot will sell as s.p. increases, further thwarting s.p. progress.
No news yet on insurance issues.


Give this stock 6 months of unhindered production and where will the share price be.
My guess is alot higher then the current 11c/share

[angela200172]

Share price consolidated Fri, and probably will again tommorrow.
I have small holding and will look to increase if it gets to 10c or below.

LAF POSITIVES.
Typhoon season almost over.
Production starting again and amounts will only increase as year goes on.
Good polymetallic resource with potential for upgrades.
Mgmt have put in alot of effort to get em back on track.
Very cheap producer and low transporting costs.
Dogged by long term bad luck.Hopefully the "voodoo doll" has been put to rest for good.
Phillipines Govt want them producing.
Daytraders who bought on pending positive news will almost all be out by now.
Give this stock 6 months of unhindered production and where will the share price be.
My guess is alot higher then the current 11c/share

Just got in at $0.115 for 100000, will buy more if it gets to 10c or below,I will hold it for long time, LAF doing right things now. thank you.

Angela :)

[angela200172]

Share price consolidated Fri, and probably will again tommorrow.
I have small holding and will look to increase if it gets to 10c or below.

LAF POSITIVES.
Typhoon season almost over.
Production starting again and amounts will only increase as year goes on.
Good polymetallic resource with potential for upgrades.
Mgmt have put in alot of effort to get em back on track.
Very cheap producer and low transporting costs.
Dogged by long term bad luck.Hopefully the "voodoo doll" has been put to rest for good.
Phillipines Govt want them producing.
Daytraders who bought on pending positive news will almost all be out by now.

LAF NEGATIVES.
The dilution factor after raising $$$ to pay for hedging issues, and the unexpected(typhoon) causing further delays/extra costs.
Their past may hinder their s.p progress.
Alot of people who bought in 04/05/06 are sitting on up to a 50% loss.Alot will sell as s.p. increases, further thwarting s.p. progress.
No news yet on insurance issues.


Give this stock 6 months of unhindered production and where will the share price be.
My guess is alot higher then the current 11c/share

I have sent email to LAF, they look like they're back on track, I have topped up 400000 at $0.098 :)


Hi Angela

Unfortunately, I do not have any recent photos of the project. Our staff have taken many during our construction phases and a selection of those is available on the website under Investor Relations / Photo Gallery. I did have a lot of very good photos taken on my last visit and a good selection of those is available in our 2006 Annual Report. You would have received a copy of that prior to our AGM in November. If you need any additional copies, please let me know and I will have them mailed to you. Unfortunately, individual photos are too large to email.

Now that we have been granted our Permanent Lifting Order and we are back into base metals production, we will certainly be taking more photos and I will update the photo gallery from time to time. We have regular visits to the site and whilst there is not always time to take photos, I try to keep a history of our progress.

Regards

Kay Donehue

Lafayette Mining Limited

www.lafayettemining.com

[motion]

Hey,

I see this stock is really not going anywhere but I'm interested in buying... anyway got any thoughts on this stock in todays market ?

thanks

[camaybay]

Hey,

I see this stock is really not going anywhere but I'm interested in buying... anyway got any thoughts on this stock in todays market ?

thanks

There is a current share offer @ 0.07, extended to close 30/4/07. I would like to see some movement in this share price otherwise there is no point in the offer to raise capital.
The company has developed the infrastructure and has had bad climatic adversities. They need a break. (so do I). Check their web site. Good prospects at rock bottom price, but but but!!! some good fortune is needed.
IMHO
DYOR

[Dukey]

LAF POSITIVES.
Typhoon season almost over....

This about the Philippines typhoon season from a surfing website (http://72.14.235.104/search?q=cache:zne3eahygm0J:www.aurora.ph/tourist-surfing.html+philippines+typhoon+season&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=5&gl=au).

"The typhoon season coincides with the wet season from mid-June to November, although there are occasional typhoons in December. The area of Aurora is visited by typhoons at least 3 or 4 times a year. The typhoons blow in from the Pacific brought by the South-West Monsoon, through the South China Sea."
------------------
Its a very long typhoon season and unseasonal typhoons happen. They also appear to be getting bigger and more frequent in recent years.
... This from wikipedia on the 2006 season. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2006_Pacific_typhoon_season)

I was in on LAF for a while but monster typhoons, greenpeace and greeny catholic ministers stirring up the locals scared me out of it at a loss.
I'd recommend finding a safer bet cause anything could happen on that little tropical isle.
(of course now I've said that it will head north!!!!!!;))

[namkey]

Talk this one down some more please. Up 9% on no news. I bought in at 7.3 cents and again at 7.5c so I'm hoping I picked this just right. Hopefully the production numbers and further exploration information is released soon to justify this rise.

[moneymajix]

hit 9c the other day.

Dropped back to low 8s again.

Seems volatile.

I bought at 7.7c.

Any thoughts on it's progress?:)

[hangseng]

hit 9c the other day.

Dropped back to low 8s again.

Seems volatile.

I bought at 7.7c.

Any thoughts on it's progress?:)

LAF will turn positive very soon. They have done significant work to turn this situation around and June will see this stock strongly re-rated. I can't believe how oversold this has become and has definately caught my attention now.

[hangseng]

Once the SAG mill re-line shutdown is complete (only 5 days), which includes some minor concentrate loading modifications, the through put of the plant will be increased to ~300t p/hr.

LAF has stood up extremely well to potential environmental difficulties and one of the largest typhoons ever in the region. No damage was sustained to critical environmental controls and LAF was given a final lifting order, so no impediment will exist to production.

First concentrate shipment has now occurred and a lot more to come.

LAF will turn cashflow positive in a very short timeframe now, providing production modifications prove effective. Understanding the modifications that are being implemented I see no reason, barrring an act of god, why LAF won't now succeed and finally become a successful producer short term.

Technically LAF has bounced of historical lows of .063 and has broken above long term support of .067. There is recent support at .076 and .085, confirmation of production will shortly place LAF above .085.

At the current sp, I will take a bigger position now with LAF. Especially after finding the resource isn't fully hedged and they are close to a resource upgrade.

[lazydays]

With 850 mill shares out there can anybody work out a value on the shares.
Sales look like $350 mill /year with an 8 yr mine life that may be extended.

............thanks

[hangseng]

With 850 mill shares out there can anybody work out a value on the shares.
Sales look like $350 mill /year with an 8 yr mine life that may be extended.

............thanks

ABN Amros has .10
They are conservative and placed a short term target without any consideration for further resource upgrade.
Key point:
"Once production is re-established, the hedge book will be re-structured
in line with a realistic production schedule." This is very close to occurring.

Grange has .21 (prior to problems encountered)
"We place a price target of A$0.21 per share based on initial reserves
and we anticipate substantial upside from exploration drilling at Hixbar
and other targets."
Grange also have considered (as I have) the exploration program could extend mine life to at least 10 years. The next round of extensions of the existing mine to be reported will be significant IMO with the massive sulphides encountered in recent drilling.

Both remain positive with LAF, as does the major share holder Lion Selection Group Limited who has in fact increased it's holding now from 13% to 18%.

[bruno]

am i missing something with LAF, i realise theve had some very very tough times and alot of bad luck plus there is alot shares issued but these guys are actually getting the stuff out of the ground and shipping it.
so why is the sp so low when your compare it to explorers such as AAR?

[hangseng]

am i missing something with LAF, i realise theve had some very very tough times and alot of bad luck plus there is alot shares issued but these guys are actually getting the stuff out of the ground and shipping it.
so why is the sp so low when your compare it to explorers such as AAR?

bruno, It is well known I very much like AAR however LAF will be back online and producing before AAR announces the completion of the Koongie Park PFS.

Once the LAF production is stable, which seems about 3-4 months away, they will quickly attend to the hedge book position and the sp will rise significantly. They have a large unhedged resource which is exposed to the increase in zinc prices, this will help considerably as will the gold production. Also LAF is very low cost production at ~.33c for all base metals. Compare this with some in Aus with ~.66c-.80c.

AAR still is excellent as a gold producer to this stage (with more to come), but they do have a way to go to become a base metal producer for Koongie Park. What AAR doesn't have is the debt position of LAF but in perspective LAF has financed the construction and commissioning of a base metals mine and plant. Add to that the difficulties experienced and you can see why the sp came down, although now oversold to a ridiculous level.

If AAR can get Koongie Park up and running quickly then you may find it overtake LAF by 2009/2010. This would have to be a dream run though.

If the process plant and loadout come up to design specifications then LAF could be in a very good financial position toward the end of 2007 to early 2008. As long as the damn typhoons stay away from them, that was just bad luck but it caused a load of damage and along with it long delays.

I have taken a position with LAF at the current lows (and again today) and will increase to a much larger position at any sign of positive movement. With AAR I already have a large position at this stage, although I did take some profit on the run up to .105.

Both have there own level of risk attached and both have significant upside.

[ta2693]

I agree with you all it has a large and valuable resource deposit. But I do not like it. It is located in a place which could be hit by Typhoon. whatif there is another typhoon in the future and make LAF suffering? whatif they just signed a supply contract with customer and hit by a Typhoon which make LAF unable to fulfill the contract on time?
If all risk take into account, I think 6c for LAF is pretty fair value.

[hangseng]

I agree with you all it has a large and valuable resource deposit. But I do not like it. It is located in a place which could be hit by Typhoon. whatif there is another typhoon in the future and make LAF suffering? whatif they just signed a supply contract with customer and hit by a Typhoon which make LAF unable to fulfill the contract on time?
If all risk take into account, I think 6c for LAF is pretty fair value.

Perspective:
2005 - 17 Tropical cyclones recorded in the region. Of that only 7 actually came across the Phillipines and of those only 2 were capable of causing damage and only 1 actually did on the Northern Island.

"In the case of tropical cyclones, no significant trend in the number of cyclones forming in or entering the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) in the past 58 years (1948-2005)."

http://www.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/cab/statfram.htm

There is no doubt the Phillippines experience a lot of cyclones. However the likelihood of a super typhoon striking exactly the same position year after year is extremely low. Based on your assumption of risk the Pilbara in WA, in fact the whole northern region of Australia should consider moving south.

Also the reconstruction of the mine and plant would take into account stronger design. In fact the plant faired reasonably well as did the environmental containment considering they experienced a direct hit of one of the biggest typhoons ever recorded.

No more risk than operating Nelson Point, Cape Lambert or Dampier.

[lazydays]

Some good photos of the typhoon damage here
http://www.lafayettemining.com/documents/Shareholders%20EGM-080607.pdf
And don't forget this little titbit from yesterdays meeting..

To this end, we have a number of initiatives in train that
if successful, will deliver benefits to all equity holders.
I am not in a position to discuss these initiatives at this
time other than to say, that my team is fully engaged and
fully focused on the task ahead.

[hangseng]

Some good photos of the typhoon damage here
http://www.lafayettemining.com/documents/Shareholders%20EGM-080607.pdf
And don't forget this little titbit from yesterdays meeting..

To this end, we have a number of initiatives in train that
if successful, will deliver benefits to all equity holders.
I am not in a position to discuss these initiatives at this
time other than to say, that my team is fully engaged and
fully focused on the task ahead.

Big things ahead. Clearly not out of the woods yet but LAF is getting very close to a positive turnaround. The titbit being a clue to to the next positive signal of information we should be all looking out for.

I am quite interested in LAF now.

[Mofra]

I am quite interested in LAF now.
To be honest I am interested in LAF again, given the first shipments of Copper & Zinc have been completed. They are producing now (albeit on a small scale); I would suggest that given their recent history the market would be waiting for some of the production to impact on their end of quarter figures before making any significant price advancement. Compared to a few other minor players, there will still be a higher risk cost factored in (regardless of the likelyhood of another typhoon or not).

[ta2693]

If LAF is as promising as some ppl believe here, why only 28% of shareholder took the "opportunity" to buy at 0.07 cents?
The top three biggest holder are holding 35.97% of LAF shares
That means even if the 28% all from them, there is still 8% shortage of participating. My explanation is even the insiders believe LAF should be valued at less 7c a share.

[Bohaty]

Hi guys,
Been holding this one for some time, yet as soon as good news seems to
be just around the corner to lift its SP it comes crashing down to earth.

LAF has massive potential, however not only do Super typhoons
create problems (Laf have made numerous upgrades to withstand these
typhoons) but also the locals who have a negative view towards the company.
The apparent spill of chemicals into the surrounding sea a year or so ago, has
made the locals trust towards the company falter, with the local bishops heading a very negative campaign against the company and calling for its closure. Without the government to intervene and stand by LAF and mining in the Philippines in general, LAF's future might look very glim.

LAF is trying to win the support of the locals and until it can it will find it very hard to win investors confidence who ultimately determine the SP which at present is extremely low and oversold. However as soon as confidence in people is regained, and less typhoons :( LAF sp may finally take the road north.

[camaybay]

TA 2693 thankyou for your revalulation of the SP by 16%. Reoccurrance of natural disasters:- cyclone Tracey hit Darwin 30 years ago, nothing since to worry about; there are typhoon statistics on the web site. As for the mercury in the local fishery, read the reports. At last, after obstacles there seems to be a window of prosperity ahead.
DYOR

[binstrokein]

Hello All,

It has been pleasing to have a long period of time, by Laf standards, without the company being in the newspapers. With Typhoons, :banghead: Catholic Bishops,:mad: Greenpeace, :rolleyes: and dubious information being reported in the press, :eek: everything has been thrown at this one. No news has been good news.

[alphman]

If LAF is as promising as some ppl believe here, why only 28% of shareholder took the "opportunity" to buy at 0.07 cents?
The top three biggest holder are holding 35.97% of LAF shares
That means even if the 28% all from them, there is still 8% shortage of participating. My explanation is even the insiders believe LAF should be valued at less 7c a share.

Hmm...Lion Selection didn't even take a crumb, let alone a piece of the pie (Form 604, 12/06/07). Not good news for this little battler....dropped another 6%. When will it find some support?? :dunno:

[ta2693]

I think it would probably fall to 6c. but I have taken a small position today. I think although the probability of falling is high, but there is not too much room to fall. to the contrary, the probability of up is low, but the room is very significant.

I will keep on building my position on this one on the range of 6c.

besides there is a words in presentation which trigger my intention to buy. "To this end, we have a number of initiatives in train that
if successful, will deliver benefits to all equity holders."

[motion]

ta2693, I think you are right I have bought into again today as well I do not se it moving much lower than 6c but maybe I'm wrong.... I think this company has alot to offer long term and now is a good time to gather move if your own research leads you to buying.... anyway this is a put in the draw stock...IMO...

[ta2693]

it seems some big boy want to go out at whatever cost. Not a good sign for me.
the buyer is very weak and small. I stare at 1500000 sell order at 6c and ask my self. does he really want to out? after I give it some small bite, it still there. I think his intention must be true. as long as the guy is there, the price will continue goes down in short term( 3 days)

[motion]

it seems some big boy want to go out at whatever cost. Not a good sign for me.
the buyer is very weak and small. I stare at 1500000 sell order at 6c and ask my self. does he really want to out? after I give it some small bite, it still there. I think his intention must be true. as long as the guy is there, the price will continue goes down in short term( 3 days)

Yep I can understand where you are coming from ta2693 I have other shares like this... But I think LAF has some good projects and u can see they are chomping at this large amount which shows people out there have support for this company at the moment... I think LAF will bounce back but it's just a matter of time....

[Bohaty]

Here is some news about lafayette mining just in and as i pointed out previously
its not super typhoons that are poising problems, its the local population,
hence a drop in sp yet again. Without the philippine government's support, Lafayette is hanging on by a thread.

Last Updated 12/06/2007 8:48:50 PM

PHILIPPINES: Villagers lobby for closure of Australian mine
An elder from the remote Philippine island of Rapu Rapu has made his way to Melbourne to call on the Australian firm Lafayette to halt its mining operations. Antonio Mingoy Casitas has brought a petition signed by 3,000 fellow islanders demanding that the mine be shut down; they say it's polluted nearby land and waterways, and is causing widespread health problems.

Read all about it.
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/asiapac/programs/s1949409.htm

[motion]

Here is some news about lafayette mining just in and as i pointed out previously
its not super typhoons that are poising problems, its the local population,
hence a drop in sp yet again. Without the philippine government's support, Lafayette is hanging on by a thread.

Last Updated 12/06/2007 8:48:50 PM

PHILIPPINES: Villagers lobby for closure of Australian mine
An elder from the remote Philippine island of Rapu Rapu has made his way to Melbourne to call on the Australian firm Lafayette to halt its mining operations. Antonio Mingoy Casitas has brought a petition signed by 3,000 fellow islanders demanding that the mine be shut down; they say it's polluted nearby land and waterways, and is causing widespread health problems.

Read all about it.
http://www.radioaustralia.net.au/asiapac/programs/s1949409.htm


Thanks Bohaty -- dam we are always the last one to know.... Not sure what to do now....This is a big hit for LAF ...DYOR

[ta2693]

I think it is really not a big problem.
every factory has pollution issue. LAF just needs right person to deal with the provoked mob. And I find LAF got the ex-minister to help them. So I think there are at 30% chance this problem will be solved. if the ex-minister can not persuade the mob, LAF still got the government backup, so there are 30% chance, LAF can ignore the mob and build the factory. In a corrupted country, everything is possible, as long as LAF got the right person and pay the right money even if the factory will cause heavy pollution.

[hangseng]

I think it is really not a big problem.
every factory has pollution issue. LAF just needs right person to deal with the provoked mob. And I find LAF got the ex-minister to help them. So I think there are at 30% chance this problem will be solved. if the ex-minister can not persuade the mob, LAF still got the government backup, so there are 30% chance, LAF can ignore the mob and build the factory. In a corrupted country, everything is possible, as long as LAF got the right person and pay the right money even if the factory will cause heavy pollution.

The fact is they have not caused heavy pollution. A proven fact.

I smell Greenpeace lobby brownie points here and I believe they will get government support or the Phillipines can kiss development by overseas companies goodbye and there economy along with it.

I place LAF at 90% chance of getting through this. Money talks.

[Mofra]

I place LAF at 90% chance of getting through this. Money talks.
In this case, money & power... like having government ministers on your side.

I would think there are a few people scared of putting their money in at this stage, and waiting for further clarity. Once the situation is sorted with a more iron-clad agreement, the company should start to be valued more aligned to its fundamentals; given it should be producing more significant amounts shortly, certainly one for the watchlists.

[binstrokein]

Thanks for the information. In essence there appears to be nothing new here, but it does explain the weakness in the price. We are not dealing in facts here; we are dealing with continued deception. Some people have an interest in keeping people poor and uneducated, it enables them to have influence and power that they would not otherwise have.

[Bohaty]

The fact is they have not caused heavy pollution. A proven fact.

I smell Greenpeace lobby brownie points here and I believe they will get government support or the Phillipines can kiss development by overseas companies goodbye and there economy along with it.

I place LAF at 90% chance of getting through this. Money talks.

Well said hangseng. The government know that if they kiss Laf goodbye then they can forget about opening their doors to any other companies waiting in line to mine in the Philippines. And they know that those accusations against Laf are not true but as always minority groups such as greenpeace like to stir the pot, and they have willing ingredients, being the vulnerable locals. They believe their hierarchy 100% despite Laf trying hard to win their support.
It just keeps the vibe surrounding Laf negative :-(
Time will tell but for share holders (and laf itself) it does get frustrating waiting for this story to turn around for the better :banghead:

[Bohaty]

This just in....
Lafayette Philippines has accused anti-mining groups of what it described as irresponsible and misguided advocacy that is actually anti-poor and economically destructive.

Looks like Lafayette is finally standing up to Greenpeace and letting them know that these anti-mining groups are just trying to do their jobs, and thats closing down mining companies and sending villagers back to the stone ages.
And its true, bad publicity isn't what Laf needs right now.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=81299

[hangseng]

This just in....
Lafayette Philippines has accused anti-mining groups of what it described as irresponsible and misguided advocacy that is actually anti-poor and economically destructive.

Looks like Lafayette is finally standing up to Greenpeace and letting them know that these anti-mining groups are just trying to do their jobs, and thats closing down mining companies and sending villagers back to the stone ages.
And its true, bad publicity isn't what Laf needs right now.

http://www.abs-cbnnews.com/storypage.aspx?StoryId=81299

Good on them, they really are fighters aren't they. I give them lots of brownie points indeed. They have had everything except the kitchen sink thrown at them and they still soldier on regardless.

[mickqld]

Not looking too good here. I am worried that their debt levels are going to become unmanageable. Only hold a small parcel in this one but methinks it might be time to bail. :mad:

[Bohaty]

Totally agree mickqld with your statement.
The noose is tightening slowly because as soon as they seem to be up on
their feet something else seems to stab them in the back. Money spent
after the typhoon rebuilding, on government payments, making villagers happy makes you wonder, how deep is their wallet and patience?

[ta2693]

how far could laf slide down? 4c, 3c, 2c, 1c?
Anyone here want to guess the result.
I have a small position at around 6c and I am hurt.
I bet on 4 c based on the momentum (huge vol today):confused:.

[moneymajix]

5.2c, up 13%+

ANN.
Rapu Rapu Update

Rapu Rapu Project Update
On Thursday, 21 June 2007, Lafayette Mining Limited (Lafayette) announced that a number of
process circuit improvements had been implemented at the Rapu Rapu polymetallic project and
that additional initiatives were planned to be implemented over the next few months.
Lafayette is pleased to announce that formal bank credit committee approvals have been
obtained for the provision of funds to finance these initiatives, as progressively approved by our
project bank group.
As foreshadowed in our recent announcement, we are also pleased to announce that formal
credit committee approvals have been obtained from our project banks to assist Group
companies to fund the cost of closing out maturing base metal forward sale contracts in early
July. The expected close out cost on those contracts remains at approximately $15.5 million.
Precious metal forward sale contracts are in the process of being rolled on a historic rate basis
to September 2007, pending a final restructure of the precious metal forward sale program under
steady-state conditions.

[ExPrEsS82]

What do u guys think of this stock? Do you think it will regain at all??? or will it just keep slipping like it has the last couple of weeks????

[ta2693]

It is very bad, 4c. I think the cascade is formed, hardly to predict how far it going to drop. ppl will only realize the value of this share and weak up one by one.

[junmonkey]

Things are finally looking up for LAF, based on their recent quarterly report. Production is up, shipments are out, drills with encouraging mineralisation. Finally, a somewhat positive report from this company.

[CDG]

The fabulous streak of bad luck that this company has enjoyed couldn’t go on forever, surely… Did one of their trucks drive over a black cat?

The substantial holding that LST has is reassuring but it’s certainly been scraping the bottom of the barrel lately. Good volume today.
Fingers crossed now that's the worst over (there was decent support @ 4c) so maybe it can get up & sit on 5c for a while & regain some self esteem.

LAF? I nearly did.

[lazyfish]

Hi guys,

I got some questions and hopefully someone will help. I noticed this stock is near 52 week low and that got my attention.

From the latest quarterly report, receipts from product sales and related debtors year to date showing 13,547,000, but production costs is 18,498,000, what could have caused this? Minerals not being sold?

This quarter they have spent 5,814,000, leaving 4,337,000 in cash. Would the cash flow (assuming increased productions) from next quarter be enough to cover the expenses?

Cheers and thanks in advance.

[nioka]

Some fairly heavy selling today has caused a fall of 15% in the SP. In an announcement today "LAF receives financial support from major stakeholders, whilst pursuing major financial restructure." They will have to come up with some good results soon to maintain any interest in their shares.

[bromham]

Good news yesterday about shipments going out and insurance claim being honoured. I also agree with previous sentiment about the government supporting foreign investment. Co seems to be dealing effectively with the environmental lobby.
I'm in....

[golfmos123]

Trading halt today, resuming trade on Tuesday or when the announcement comes out. From the release it looks like a reshuffle of debt with some third parties which might also provide some security going forward. Can only be good news for the SP. I received LAF as a hot tip just a week or so ago from a friend who has a reasonable track record at picking short term risers, so maybe he's got another one right here???

Shame I didn't stake more (maybe).....:banghead::banghead:

[nioka]

LAF suspended from trading for failure to lodge returns on time. May be just a hiccup but could be serious. Certainly not good news.

[lee_m]

Debt free but highly diluted................
I assume todays announcements are not great news for shareholders?
Anyones views on this would be appreciated.:confused:
(my first post..for what its worth)

[nioka]

Debt free but highly diluted................
I assume todays announcements are not great news for shareholders?
Anyones views on this would be appreciated.:confused:
(my first post..for what its worth)

Not good news. We have an explanation as to why the financials were not released on time causing the suspension. It is hard to estimate the SP at opening tomorrow as there are no quotes because the suspension won't be lifted until trading commences tomorrow. This is still a highly speculative stock and I doubt if it will recover quickly.

[nioka]

It's hard to put a value on LAF shares. The restructure conditions are complicated to say the least. Assuming all conditions are met then current holders will be offered a 1:1 at .02c. Prior to commencement of trading there was a large sell at .025 which was withdrawn at the last moment. I had an order in at .025 which was filled. That has brought my average down to around .04 and with a 1:1 at .02 I will hold at .03. I will hold at that and see what happens. Getting rid of the hedge book could help this struggling company and if they have a reasonable run from here on they could turn out OK. Still speculative.

[golfmos123]

Thanks Nioka,

How wrong one can be. As per last post, received LAF as a good tip and immediately pear shaped. I must admit, after reading through the announcements, I kind of agree with you. My strategy will be to hold through to the new rights issue (assuming there is an underwriter prior to end of Oct) and use the new shares to average down. Hopefully an exit point will be closer to appearing. I still think that the Rapu Rapu enterprise is better than average, but the SP has taken a hammering and it will take some really good news before any major recovery now I'd guess.

[nioka]

LAF in a trading halt today. This is either good news or bad news, I doubt if there is anything in between the two for this struggling miner. Probably associated with a new issue or possibly a take over. Hopefully I'll get out of this one at a profit.

[alphman]

LAF in a trading halt today. This is either good news or bad news, I doubt if there is anything in between the two for this struggling miner. Probably associated with a new issue or possibly a take over. Hopefully I'll get out of this one at a profit.

Trading halt since yesterday. It is to do with the investor group no longer interested in exercising their exclusive call option.

[gas]

Is laf dead,got 300000 at 8c,thought I was pretty good for a while there,but now what.Keep getting news that gives hope to be closely followed by more disasterous news.Are the last couple of nails going in.:banghead:

[hangseng]

Despite all good intentions LAF is gone, insurmountable problems it seems. I took a small loss (highly speculative holding) but I feel for those who have lost more. Lion investments have lost a small fortune.

This may hurt some spec (and larger) stocks with large debt in the short term at the moment.

[Miner]

Despite all good intentions LAF is gone, insurmountable problems it seems. I took a small loss (highly speculative holding) but I feel for those who have lost more. Lion investments have lost a small fortune.

This may hurt some spec (and larger) stocks with large debt in the short term at the moment.

Dear Folks

You may have read this already. IN case not : UPDATE 3-Australia's Lafayette moves to avoid bankruptcy (Source Yahoo Finance)

Tuesday December 18, 2007, 8:17 pm

(Adds analyst comment, more detail)

SYDNEY, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Australia-listed Lafayette Mining (ASX: LAF.ax) entered voluntary administration on Tuesday to avoid bankruptcy and give it time to obtain new capital or to sell its troubled Philippine mining business.

Lafayette was the first foreign company to operate a mine in the Philippines after a law granting full foreign ownership of local projects was upheld in 2004.

But cyanide spills in 2005 shut the copper and zinc mine for more than a year, causing huge financial strain and making the Australian owner the poster child for the perils of large-scale mining in a country deeply suspicious of the sector.

The ensuing uproar hampered government plans to attract billions of dollars in foreign investments to the minerals industry but after a period of quiet, big players are testing the waters and Lafayette's financial distress is unlikely to put off the industry's slow revival.

"Mining companies always have lessons learned and cautionary tales and Lafayette always comes up," said Tom Green, executive director of Pacific Strategies and Assessments, a risk consultancy.

"The mining companies are well aware of Lafayette's woes over this thing and what they went through. They were aware of it before they started to come in."

Environmental campaigners, who have kept up the pressure on Lafayette since the spills on the central island of Rapu Rapu, saw the group's financial difficulties as a victory.

"We hope this development will lead to the permanent closure of mining operations in Rapu Rapu," said Clemente Bautista, national coordinator for environmental group Kalikasan-PNE.

But Carlos Dominguez, the chairman of the Lafayette's Philippine operations, said the mine and its 1,000 strong workforce would continue working until the Australia-based administrator told them otherwise.

"We have no plans to shut down the mine. We will stay open for as long as it is profitable," Dominguez told Reuters.

He said the project, 350 km (218 miles) southeast of Manila, was forecast to generate net cash operating income of $52 million on gross revenues of $105 million in its 2007/08 fiscal year.

A bailout plan under consideration by a private equity group, South East Asian Strategic Asset Fund, would have eliminated around A$300 million ($260 million) of Lafayette's debt and bad hedges with the help of a $151 million capital raising.

Late last month, Lafayette said crucial financial support from the private equity group was a possibility. But on Tuesday it said that the level of certainty over the plan had declined, and it had no grounds to continue to hold that view.

Australia-based administrator Ferrier Hodgson has now been appointed to take control of the the company and its property.

The Rapu Rapu mine had been forecast to turn out 10,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate, 14,000 tonnes of zinc in concentrate, 50,000 ounces of gold, and 600,000 ounces of silver annually.

LG International Corp 001120.KS and state-run Korea Resources Corp together hold a 26 percent stake in the mine. (Reporting by James Regan; Additional reporting by Carmel Crimmins in Manila; editing by Jan Dahinten)

[tronic72]

Dear Folks

You may have read this already. IN case not : UPDATE 3-Australia's Lafayette moves to avoid bankruptcy (Source Yahoo Finance)

Tuesday December 18, 2007, 8:17 pm

(Adds analyst comment, more detail)

SYDNEY, Dec 18 (Reuters) - Australia-listed Lafayette Mining (ASX: LAF.ax) entered voluntary administration on Tuesday to avoid bankruptcy and give it time to obtain new capital or to sell its troubled Philippine mining business.

Lafayette was the first foreign company to operate a mine in the Philippines after a law granting full foreign ownership of local projects was upheld in 2004.

But cyanide spills in 2005 shut the copper and zinc mine for more than a year, causing huge financial strain and making the Australian owner the poster child for the perils of large-scale mining in a country deeply suspicious of the sector.

The ensuing uproar hampered government plans to attract billions of dollars in foreign investments to the minerals industry but after a period of quiet, big players are testing the waters and Lafayette's financial distress is unlikely to put off the industry's slow revival.

"Mining companies always have lessons learned and cautionary tales and Lafayette always comes up," said Tom Green, executive director of Pacific Strategies and Assessments, a risk consultancy.

"The mining companies are well aware of Lafayette's woes over this thing and what they went through. They were aware of it before they started to come in."

Environmental campaigners, who have kept up the pressure on Lafayette since the spills on the central island of Rapu Rapu, saw the group's financial difficulties as a victory.

"We hope this development will lead to the permanent closure of mining operations in Rapu Rapu," said Clemente Bautista, national coordinator for environmental group Kalikasan-PNE.

But Carlos Dominguez, the chairman of the Lafayette's Philippine operations, said the mine and its 1,000 strong workforce would continue working until the Australia-based administrator told them otherwise.

"We have no plans to shut down the mine. We will stay open for as long as it is profitable," Dominguez told Reuters.

He said the project, 350 km (218 miles) southeast of Manila, was forecast to generate net cash operating income of $52 million on gross revenues of $105 million in its 2007/08 fiscal year.

A bailout plan under consideration by a private equity group, South East Asian Strategic Asset Fund, would have eliminated around A$300 million ($260 million) of Lafayette's debt and bad hedges with the help of a $151 million capital raising.

Late last month, Lafayette said crucial financial support from the private equity group was a possibility. But on Tuesday it said that the level of certainty over the plan had declined, and it had no grounds to continue to hold that view.

Australia-based administrator Ferrier Hodgson has now been appointed to take control of the the company and its property.

The Rapu Rapu mine had been forecast to turn out 10,000 tonnes of copper in concentrate, 14,000 tonnes of zinc in concentrate, 50,000 ounces of gold, and 600,000 ounces of silver annually.

LG International Corp 001120.KS and state-run Korea Resources Corp together hold a 26 percent stake in the mine. (Reporting by James Regan; Additional reporting by Carmel Crimmins in Manila; editing by Jan Dahinten)


Thanks for the heads up Miner. Good to see someone else is up waiting to see what this crazy Market does. the UK looks OK but commodities are still up and down. I wouldn't pick it at the stage.

Game on! 1:30AM

Edit: Just had a peek and the DOW is up .5% and NASDAQ .8% Hopefully we'll see some sunshine in AU tomorrow.

[moneymajix]

Lafayette Philippines in talks with new mining investors
Tue Jan 8, 2008 4:52am EST

MANILA, Jan 8 (Reuters) - The Philippine unit of Australia-listed Lafayette Mining (LAF.AX: Quote, Profile, Research) said on Tuesday it was in serious talks with at least three foreign groups willing to take over its mine in the centre of the archipelago.

Lafayette Philippines, whose parent company in Australia entered voluntary administration last month to avoid bankruptcy, also said it was preparing to ship almost $5 million worth of copper concentrates to China later this week.

"This shipment belies reports of our bankruptcy and closure. We have not laid off employees and will not lay off anyone," Bayani Agabin, Lafayette spokesman, said in a statement.

"We are only going through rehabilitation which will allow us to continue operating and employing people while raising additional capital," he said.

Lafayette was the first foreign firm to operate a mine in the Philippines after a law granting full foreign ownership of local projects was upheld by the courts in late 2004.

But two cyanide spills in 2005 shut the mine for more than a year, causing huge financial strain on its Australian owner and stunting the mining sector's revival in the Philippines.

The Rapu Rapu mine, with its 1,000-strong workforce, was forecast to generate net cash operating income of $52 million on gross revenues of $105 million in its 2007/08 fiscal year ending in June.

Lafayette Philippines is set to export 2,700 dry metric tonnes of copper concentrates to China this week.

It is the company's sixth shipment to China since it started exporting copper in April last year following the resumption of its mine operations, which were controversially shuttered after two cyanide spills.

Lafayette owns 74 percent of the mine while LG International Corp (001120.KS: Quote, Profile, Research) and state-run Korea Resources Corp together hold the remaining 26 percent stake.

[nioka]

LAF holders can forget about getting much (if any) value for their shares as their interest in the copper mine has been sold without there being any thing left for LAF. Because the receivers are endeavouring to restructure the company the company will not be wound up at this stage so the losses are not claimable as a tax loss in this financial year. There seems little chance of the company being restructured.