SBM - St. Barbara Mines

[Ashsaege]

Well I had a dip in to seek for the longer term at .71 back a bit, so dont' feel too bad. But got a good parcel today at .385 I think (imho) that we will be pleased with SBM by the start of 2009.

I remember buying in at 82 cents thinking 'you beauty!'... then it hit 96cents and i thought 'You BEAUTY!'...

[VViCKiD]

I remember buying in at 82 cents thinking 'you beauty!'... then it hit 96cents and i thought 'You BEAUTY!'...

I guess u will all be taking up the rights ? Does anyone know when we will be receiving our forms ? I want to pay by bpay but couldn't find the bill code on the prospectus

[Ashsaege]

I guess u will all be taking up the rights ? Does anyone know when we will be receiving our forms ? I want to pay by bpay but couldn't find the bill code on the prospectus

I would take up the rights, but my capital has dwindled away into other stocks. Im not sure where the bill code is either, sorry.

[56gsa]

forms were sent to eligible retailers on Thursday - bpay code will be on that

i'm going to be OS and won't see my form - asked them to fax, email, give me the bpay number of the phone... sorry can't do that... bloody SBM

anyway can always stock up on the market for less than 40c so not a big hassle

[eddyeagle]

SBM share price really in the dog house at the moment.

Two positives though include Barclays becoming a substantial holder on 17 June and also the MD Ed Eshuys buying 5 million shares on 18 June... So I'm hanging in there...

[Undertow]

I once had shares in SBM.

What reasons are there to explain the recent price fall?

I know the general market conditions are not good but there must be something else to cause to shares to almost halve in a few months or so.

[Uncle Festivus]

SBM share price really in the dog house at the moment.

Two positives though include Barclays becoming a substantial holder on 17 June and also the MD Ed Eshuys buying 5 million shares on 18 June... So I'm hanging in there...

Mmmm..... so you think there might be a convenient upgrade announcement due to get the placement over 40c and in the money???

[shaunm]

SBM share price really in the dog house at the moment.

Two positives though include Barclays becoming a substantial holder on 17 June and also the MD Ed Eshuys buying 5 million shares on 18 June... So I'm hanging in there...

I hear you Eddy. I have to hang in there as I bought in the high 80's:eek:
I'm so tempted to buy now to try and average down but I don't know how much lower she'll go.:confused:

[explod]

At peak gold $US1030 SBM was at .95 It then drifted down with the Gold price to .55 (a drop of .40) prior to the announcement. In the same time Lihir Gold went from a high of 4.45 to 2.90. Has now gone up with gold to 3.08

A look at most other gold stocks will show the same. A couple of exceptions who have some upgrade reports.

So hit with the volatile movements of markets we have a lot of nervousness. The mickey trigger is stickey. After the SBM drop of .40 cents we then have dilution of share value for the new issue and a consequential drop of a further 18.5 cents as of last close.

The two drops have made the overall effect monumental. Stops would have been taken out everywhere and huge fear also involved as the value of the moment in charge of all senses.

We may go lower today with a drop in gold overnight. But I see value in this company, and that appears to have improved (by all reports) since the peak of gold on March 3. So even if we were to drift to .30cents, just add back the 40cents which again IMHO will be there (gold in my take will return above the previous high by September) then you have a value of .70cents.

And that is just my :2twocents

[explod]

And I have no doubt that some shorts in the know would have had a field day also as well as some end of financial year unloading.

From early July , after offer close, we should see some turn around.

[VViCKiD]

can anyone explain to me what the point of taking up the offer if i can buy from market at a cheaper price ?

[kennas]

can anyone explain to me what the point of taking up the offer if i can buy from market at a cheaper price ?To be corrected by someone closer to the company:

None.

Unless you are happy to provide a donation.

[explod]

What we have is a good old shake out.

Noticed yesterday just before lunch a huge dump, and then again right on the close. There was also a lot of those same small number auto sales. Someone is trying to shake off the nervous nellies for thier plays.

[Trembling Hand]

What we have is a good old shake out.


LOL. When does a new high to a new 2 1/2 year low in 3 months turn in to a disaster?? After a 90% fall?

[explod]

LOL. When does a new high to a new 2 1/2 year low in 3 months turn in to a disaster?? After a 90% fall?

Are you suggesting a bottom of .095 cents.

I notice the buys today at market have been large and most of the sells very small, as in intervals and even numbers in value. There is considerable large player intervention in this to hold it at the current level. IMHO, and would suggest the current level is near the base, for the moment.

[Uncle Festivus]

I have been experimenting with a Google Docs spreadsheet at

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pU-CyOZ-EOdoG1MmpluLUCQ&gid=0

If anyone would like to collaborate on it just PM me.

Feel free to have a look and critique, although it's a work in progress and testing Google Finance features so some data is not complete ie cash & capex figures. But, even assuming that cash & capex is a breakeven excercise, I get a 'valuation' which is nearly twice the current share price. It doesn't include any exploration or gold price upside etc so a bit conservative?

Tax loss selling may come into it this week, as too today was the first tradable day for the insto's who have already taken the plunge? I bought some more today - as in marriage, hopefully for the better ;)

[MRC & Co]

Thank god I was not in this one, got out after it's false breakout back towards the end of May.

That being said, it is right near a decent long-term support level now (at about that 33-34.5c mark), the volume after the gap has been very high, so there is definately some buying interest out there, however, I do not like the fact volume is increasing over the last 3 trading days while the stock continues to fall. Though the price spread is not overly large, which is a positive.

The next few days will be very interesting. I would not be surprised to see this one find support around here and then look to have a crack at filling that gap above, an area right in the middle of a very strong resistance zone.

2c

Cheers

[eddyeagle]

Had a gut feeling yesterday after looking at the chart that SBM would bounce off 35 cents and it seems to have done so today, hitting an intraday hight of 39.5 cents before settling on 37 cents. Hopefully it can continue to rise from here!

[explod]

Had a gut feeling yesterday after looking at the chart that SBM would bounce off 35 cents and it seems to have done so today, hitting an intraday hight of 39.5 cents before settling on 37 cents. Hopefully it can continue to rise from here!

Yep, noticed at about 1439hrs the buyers changed to larger than the sellers. May not move up at all for a few days but very pleased to have loaded up at such a good price.

[Uncle Festivus]

Could this be "money for jam"? SBM & Macquarie have a big interest in getting the retail component over the line fully subscribed so could we assume we will see a price at least over the 40c mark by close of offer, whether that be by 'helping' the share price or a well timed positive announcement? All things being equal, this one is a compelling candidate for some investor wealth creation at these levels? (refer spreadsheet link above)

[VViCKiD]

this one has been performing terribly !!! even on a green day it's in the red..
I don't think I will be taking up the offer anymore... I bought 20000 @ 0.65 .. wish i waited 2 weeks later...

[Uncle Festivus]

this one has been performing terribly !!! even on a green day it's in the red..
I don't think I will be taking up the offer anymore... I bought 20000 @ 0.65 .. wish i waited 2 weeks later...
Patience, grasshopper, will be rewarded?;)

[solomon]

I went in on SBM a while back at an average of 0.718 and have been hurting ever since. Yesterday I doubled up at 0.35 and all I can say is that the fundamentals drove me to it. Now I'm hoping it wasn't good money after bad, but the POG gives me hope.:)

What I'd really like to know is who has been selling SBM so hard? It just doesn't make any sense to me, SBM hasn't been at these levels since January 2006 (at a rough look at the chart):confused: Can anyone educate me?

[Uncle Festivus]

I went in on SBM a while back at an average of 0.718 and have been hurting ever since. Yesterday I doubled up at 0.35 and all I can say is that the fundamentals drove me to it. Now I'm hoping it wasn't good money after bad, but the POG gives me hope.:)

What I'd really like to know is who has been selling SBM so hard? It just doesn't make any sense to me, SBM hasn't been at these levels since January 2006 (at a rough look at the chart):confused: Can anyone educate me?

A reason to sell? Tax losses for anyone who is losing money? Interested to see what happens after today? (end of tax year).

[Onvil]

With the sp now at 35c - Any thoughts what will happen to the sp, if as you'd expect, people don't take up their entitlement. Noting the offer was underwritten, but did they really expect the sp to fall this much?

[shaunm]

With the sp now at 35c - Any thoughts what will happen to the sp, if as you'd expect, people don't take up their entitlement. Noting the offer was underwritten, but did they really expect the sp to fall this much?

I heard that the placement was fully covered. I hope it can improve from here as this is a sorry tale for me.
I have been so close to taking a loss and putting it into the coal & IO plays that have done so well for me. But I swore to myself not to sell for aloss again, a vow I made after my hasty sells during the January plummit ouch.:eek7:

[solomon]

I don't get the price movement of SBM since the announcement of the offer. It is as if someone with deep pockets is trying to hurt the company by punishing the sp. Gold is up, SBM have $63m of instiutional money in the coffers, and she just keeps on going down.:confused::confused::confused:

[explod]

I don't get the price movement of SBM since the announcement of the offer. It is as if someone with deep pockets is trying to hurt the company by punishing the sp. Gold is up, SBM have $63m of instiutional money in the coffers, and she just keeps on going down.:confused::confused::confused:


I agree, as a holder have been watching with some concern but have realised that some form of manipulation is going on.

Two thoughts:-

As the sharprice has gone below offer price of .40 cents, the underwriters are leverging into extra shares on market to dispose of later and thereby offset the loss.

At the very low price to value (IMHO) it has become a target for takeover. Stock shorting is part of that game. Have been discussing with Uncle Fest in pm,s and he sent me a spread of sales which indicated auto buying and selling that was moving the price into orders. Some of the huge dumps have been right on the close of the market, again to keep it repressed.

Monday will be interesting. I sent a message to the Company this afternoon stating these thoughts and that they ought to be letting shareholders into their take on the situation. Not holding my breath but perhaps some pressure from others could help. Certainly feel that the regulator could have been asking questions. They do it as a matter of course on sharp rises, this situation should be no different.

Unfortunately this regulation comes from the ASX (private enterprise) which I think is something the new Rudd Government ought to be having a close look at.

Anyway I increased my own holding at the lower prices and with no news forthcoming can only feel confident that we will return to sanity in the next few weeks.

[Trembling Hand]

It is as if someone with deep pockets is trying to hurt the company by punishing the sp.

LOL.


I agree, as a holder have been watching with some concern but have realised that some form of manipulation is going on.

At the very low price to value (IMHO) it has become a target for takeover. Stock shorting is part of that game. Have been discussing with Uncle Fest in pm,s and he sent me a spread of sales which indicated auto buying and selling that was moving the price into orders. Some of the huge dumps have been right on the close of the market, again to keep it repressed.


LOL.

Its always the shorts manipulating. With naked shorts at 0.68%!

Would love for you to explain such rubbish. You have no idea who is selling and buying how can you state that you do. I mean is it any different that a ramp.

The only facts are that the market has SBM priced at 0.33.

[solomon]

On the SBM website the top shareholders are listed as:

M&G Group* (??Vanguard??) 10.05%
Deans Knight Capital Management 6.20%
JPMorgan Chase & Co 6.07%
Barclays Group 5.39%
AMP Limited 5.27%
Merrill Lynch & Co. Inc. 5.17%

It just occurred to me that perhaps there could be a distressed seller?

Trembling hand - not everyone in the market buys and sells based on fundamental value - one just has to look at the hot money following the oil stocks around over the last month. So my hunch is that there is someone selling SBM for unusual reasons, Explod has put forward a Conspiracy Theory, I've put forward a Hurting Giant theory, are there other possibilities.

[Ashsaege]

On the OXR forum there is talk of the Barclays Group is selling out of a lot of stocks due the US credit crunch. So they could be applying a lot of selling pressure on SBM at the moment

[cookiedude]

Personally I am not sure why you would purchase any shares in SBM at the moment - the stock is in a definite downtrend at the moment & nobody knows how low it will go… I was tempted to buy in at 0.35 but held out – waiting for the market to confirm the turn around before I get in.

Good luck to all holders.

[solomon]

On the OXR forum there is talk of the Barclays Group is selling out of a lot of stocks due the US credit crunch. So they could be applying a lot of selling pressure on SBM at the moment

Thanks Ashsaege that is very helpful. If there are no other theories then we shall have to wait and see.

Why I want to understand, or at least hypothesise, what is going on is that it will help me decide whether to get out or hang in there. For now I'm hanging in.

[explod]

One can never be certain, but the selling seems to have begun to dry up this morning.

To 11am the last 3 days, Wednesday's volume was 4 million, Thursday's 2.6 mil and today at 1.75.

In making a decision to sell I ask myself, if I did not hold the stock would I buy it? I hold the stock, and would buy but have enough.

[Family_Guy]

Solomon seems to have nailed it. After the close it was announced that AMP and Barclays have dropped the stock. Barclays have been off loading for a week or 2 which probably explains a lot.

I'm a small holder.

[pichmac70]

Solomon seems to have nailed it. After the close it was announced that AMP and Barclays have dropped the stock. Barclays have been off loading for a week or 2 which probably explains a lot.

I'm a small holder.

Barclays and Amp only sold down a very small portion,just enough to keep the price below 40c maybe?

Just speculating,but I can't explain it any other way.

If they picked up some more on the 4,July well that will answer my question.

[solomon]

Barclays and Amp only sold down a very small portion,just enough to keep the price below 40c maybe?

Just speculating,but I can't explain it any other way.

If they picked up some more on the 4,July well that will answer my question.

Well spotted about them only selling a small portion of their holdings (I only checked AMP, I'll believe you're right for Barclays). But why would they do that, it is only damaging themselves?

Some thinking out loud - well you know what I mean.

Maybe they are trying to undermine the retail part of the offer? But why?

Maybe they want to do that because they are pissed at the SBM management - unlikely.

Or perhaps they want to hurt the underwriter - maybe - but it is an expensive way to hurt Macquarie - unlikely.

Or maybe they want to spoil the retal part of the offer so they can pick more up at a nice price from the underwriter who will no doubt look to unload all those shares they are going to be caught with?

Well now I'm out of ideas. Maybe Barclays just needed the cash - the Hurting Giant lurches taking casulties in its wake.

[explod]

Barclays Bank has been dragged down by the sub-prime problem in August last year. These problems have not improved and many of the institutions embroiled in this mess are having servere cashflow problems. So reading between the lines they have to sell down some assets at any cost just to keep heads above water.

[solomon]

If Barcays and AMP got in on SBM any time before Jan/Feb of 2006 then they wouldn't actually be selling at a loss (well unless they bought the huge ride up over $2 in the mid 90's).

I have no way of finding out, but it would be nice to know when they became substantial holders?

[oldblue]

Perhaps Barclays and AMP are still selling but are obliged to make disclosure along the way? I don't know the rules about this but someone can perhaps clarify?

Disc: Not a holder but interested.

;)

[oldblue]

Perhaps Barclays and AMP are still selling but are obliged to make disclosure along the way? I don't know the rules about this but someone can perhaps clarify?

Disc: Not a holder but interested.

;)

Re-reading the AMP announcement it looks to me that AMP has ceased to be "significant holder" in terms of the definition but is still a substantial holder. From here on they could continue selling without notice and will only need to notify again if they buy and trigger the " significant holder" level.

[Uncle Festivus]

All will be revealed in due course......? It's still worth substantially more than the current share price based on information publicly available. What is your risk/reward tolerance?

[Santoro]

If Barcays and AMP got in on SBM any time before Jan/Feb of 2006 then they wouldn't actually be selling at a loss (well unless they bought the huge ride up over $2 in the mid 90's).

I have no way of finding out, but it would be nice to know when they became substantial holders?

According to major shareholder list AMP bought in on 28/02/2008 acquiring 5.27% and Barclays on 22/10/2007 - 17/06/2008 acquiring 5.39%, or indeed these maybe when they annouced major shareholder status.

Seems unlikely they were in before 02/2006, but still a possibility.

[solomon]

Thanks Santoro, the pressure is still on the price. So it seems that they, or one of them, is selling down (or out). With AMP a large chunk of their holding would be assets backing insurance 20m shares, but even though there are no 'unit holders' worried about fund performance, selling the insurance side down does impact the share price, which impacts the investment funds. The investment business (AMP Capital) owns - or owned - $30m shares. So I don't get what they are doing. Unless they have been selling off to just get under the radar so when the market recovers they can sell out undetected?

As for Barclays, they will probably keep selling if they are hurting as previously mentioned.

It looks to me as if there is going to be significant downward pressure on the price for a while to come, but I've lost so much now that I'm going to ride it out and hope for happier days in the months ahead.

---
these are merely my opinions and aren't financial advise.

[Santoro]

Thanks Santoro, the pressure is still on the price. So it seems that they, or one of them, is selling down (or out). With AMP a large chunk of their holding would be assets backing insurance 20m shares, but even though there are no 'unit holders' worried about fund performance, selling the insurance side down does impact the share price, which impacts the investment funds. The investment business (AMP Capital) owns - or owned - $30m shares. So I don't get what they are doing. Unless they have been selling off to just get under the radar so when the market recovers they can sell out undetected?

As for Barclays, they will probably keep selling if they are hurting as previously mentioned.

It looks to me as if there is going to be significant downward pressure on the price for a while to come, but I've lost so much now that I'm going to ride it out and hope for happier days in the months ahead.

---
these are merely my opinions and aren't financial advise.


Solomon,

I agree, its hard to remain optimistic, with the credit crunch loss predictions increasing in total (USD 1.5 trillion) , the sharemarket is taking a hammering, I suspect with more to come. I think cashing up is the call by institutions under pressure.

I am sticking with this one because if stocks keeps falling, gold may be better bet than cash. Unfortunately I got in looking for a promising gold stock a few weeks back, could have done much better, in hindsight i think I should have gone with ZAUWBA...Perth Mint physical gold warrants......

Good luck to all holders....

[solomon]

It looks to me as if there is going to be significant downward pressure on the price for a while to come, but I've lost so much now that I'm going to ride it out and hope for happier days in the months ahead.

---
these are merely my opinions and aren't financial advise.[/QUOTE]


Interestingly, the volume has dried up a bit this morning, so maybe this bodes well for the days ahead.

However, there is still no news on the retail component of the offer?:confused:

[solomon]

Interestingly, the volume has dried up a bit this morning, so maybe this bodes well for the days ahead.

However, there is still no news on the retail component of the offer?:confused:

At almost the moment I was typing this, trade in SBM stopped, its status is 'pre-open' but there is no news yet. There's probably going to be news, in fact it is probably being posted as I typ ...

[solomon]

Gold production announcement - nice that they made it on the revised target, but not the news I was looking for.

[explod]

Gold production announcement - nice that they made it on the revised target, but not the news I was looking for.

I think the news is great. The price pummelling has been so bad in my view that I began to suspect a production problem.

My other thoughts are in previous posts. A happier holder.

The commercial shorts on silver are in trouble and a capitulation must be close by. Silver always leads gold as does a contracting $US, which is all happening. SBM will bolt with it IMHO

[VViCKiD]

Anyone think this will hit it's previous highs again ??? I bought in at 65 cents maybe 2 weeks before the announcement of share dilution... still reallly really hurting from it..

[eddyeagle]

Does anyone read Fat Prophets and have any idea as to what they are saying about SBM at the moment? It is one of their favourite stocks...

[solomon]

News later today was well evil at first glance - Ed the MD sold 5 million shares on 3 and 4 July.

Though I like the added explanation in the documentation - the shares were sold so that he could participate in the upcoming offer. Which means he sold at an average of 0.34 so that he could participate in the offer and buy at 0.40 - now that is one committed MD :eek:. I guess he is trying to bolster the numbers, or was pressured by the underwriter or has gone insane and we should all get out before the company implodes. Anyway I like his commitment to the cause!

The other bad news is that Merrill Lynch has also been a net seller, (added to AMP and Barclays) though I have now idea how to read all that stock loaning and returning stuff - it looks like someone in NY has been playing - and losing on this one (but that is a superficial reading of the data).

Anyway all of this actually says 2 things to me - hold on they can't sell forever - things maybe worse with the financials than we realise which is good for gold, but bad for people and the world at large.

---
caveat: NFA - DYOR

[explod]

The news this morning as expected. Raised the money so can plough it in. Price jump with large buyers and small sellers.

Whew!!!!! a tough few weeks but we can rest a bit easier.

[Uncle Festivus]

The news this morning as expected. Raised the money so can plough it in. Price jump with large buyers and small sellers.

Whew!!!!! a tough few weeks but we can rest a bit easier.

The underwriting clauses still have to hold till next close of business Wednesday 16th at least so still one final hurdle. I am looking forward to the resource upgrade in the next quarterly report though, and the increase in gold output to 300kozs, and maybe a development with the BDG holding?


Macquarie Capital Advisers Limited, will, subject to the Underwriting Agreement (and none of the termination events as set out in Section 8.4 of
the Prospectus being triggered between now and close of business on 16 July 2008), subscribe for the full shortfall of 123,554,066 New Shares.

[solomon]

With Barclays, AMP and Merrill Lynch all now below the radar and Macquarie looking like they are going to be caught with a whole heap of stock (which they may not want) there could be pressure on the price for a while yet.

Some good positive news that impacted the bottom line could help, as Uncle suggested, or a further spike up in the POG. But any strength seems to be met with more selling at the moment and at the rate of 5-10m shares per day the selling could last for weeks.

I'm hanging in there though, good fortune to all holders.

caveat: NFA - DYOR

[VViCKiD]

down on another surging and this one still gets hammmered... I am wondering when this selling will stop. Does anyone know of the reasons for AMP selling ?

[sbmfan]

insto placement has knocked her about the ear but she will come good. hold your nerve. good management, good production profile, and lots of cash.

[Uncle Festivus]

Still undervalued?


Newly discovered high grade gold mineralisation at Jaccoletti, 1.5 km from Marvel Loch
Significant intersections include 54m @ 8.1 g/t from 243m, 21m @ 12.2 g/t from 317m and 18m @ 7.6 g/t from 244m
Potential for underground development

[explod]

Still undervalued?

Absolutely; IMVHO

Notice banks in aus being supported by future fund (and that's another disgraceful story, taxpayers foot the final calls). The flight of institutional investors from SBM and others presents great bargains for the cash holders.

[kennas]

They are some fantasic intersections.

Any ideas on time for a JORC on this?

Could be quite significant if the veins are uniform.


True widths of the high grade ore shoot are interpreted to be in excess of 20 metres wide and between 50 and 80 metres in length.

[Uncle Festivus]

Absolutely; IMVHO

Notice banks in aus being supported by future fund (and that's another disgraceful story, taxpayers foot the final calls). The flight of institutional investors from SBM and others presents great bargains for the cash holders.

I'm not sure it's a 'flight' as such, maybe just keeping their exposure ratio's within limits. Generally I think the proverbial is about to hit the fan for the global money shuffling industry so ANY stock even remotely connected to gold will 'outperform going forward' as the anal-ists like to say ;)

The latest result is but one of several promising exploration targets here, but I think Tower Hill will be just as promising ie more to come.

And - no debt ie not at the mercy of banks.

[nioka]

SP up 16% on good volume this morning. The good news will help sell the surplus being placed on the market by the funds holding the shares as a result of the failed loans and underwriting. Once those are disposed of we should see value return. I would not be surprised to see an offer from someone like Placer now that the reserves are increasing and the SP is low.

[nick2fish]

No money so I had to sell to top up with some more. I feel like a kid stealing candy and getting away with it. Am I missing something ????:confused:

[Paladin]

Well, I'll wade in with a cracked and dusty crystal ball.

This is looking to me like prime takeover stuff now. There's not really any such thing as intrinsic valuation on fundamentals in the current market. Long term, sure - but is Mac bank really wanting to be a long term investor here?

SBM is now in the position of having a very overexposed major shareholder. As major holder, I'd be very keen to have back channel discussions with anyone wanting to take over the company - at the 50c mark or better. It would be either that or resign myself to a long, long wait - and further possible falls.

Banks aren't exactly in the best shape at the moment either.

I'm a newbie, but that's my read. Mac's butt is well and truly out in the wind on this one.

[Uncle Festivus]

I would have to assume that MAC being lead underwriter that they would not be the only underwriter ie they would have farmed some out, so not entirely left holding the baby.



Now unless I'm reading a quarterly report from another company, going by the share price today, that also happens to be called St Barbara, then this report is exceptionally good news -
Proven & prob reserves increased by 43% to 3.1moz
Tower Hill reserves 323kozs
Nevoria reserves 270kozs
Mineral resource now 10.6Moz
Forecast production for 2009 - 300,000 ozNegatives -


cash cost's up (for the qtr)
searching for new Cheif Operating Officer, and General Manager Exploration
corporate play in action? manipulation?They now have the money and reserves.

1 million oz by 2010?

Capitulation day?

[Paladin]

I would have to assume that MAC being lead underwriter that they would not be the only underwriter ie they would have farmed some out, so not entirely left holding the baby.



Now unless I'm reading a quarterly report from another company, going by the share price today, that also happens to be called St Barbara, then this report is exceptionally good news -
Proven & prob reserves increased by 43% to 3.1moz
Tower Hill reserves 323kozs
Nevoria reserves 270kozs
Mineral resource now 10.6Moz
Forecast production for 2009 - 300,000 ozNegatives -


cash cost's up (for the qtr)
searching for new Cheif Operating Officer, and General Manager Exploration
corporate play in action? manipulation?They now have the money and reserves.

1 million oz by 2010?

Capitulation day?

Dunno. Tower Hill is shaky. Cash costs nearly at spot. I think that's why the price is tanking. I read this report as an overall negative. But then again, I can barely read. My uninformed punt would be for a long black candlestick today.

I doubt Mac Bank is happy today.

[Uncle Festivus]

Dunno. Tower Hill is shaky. Cash costs nearly at spot. I think that's why the price is tanking. I read this report as an overall negative. But then again, I can barely read. My uninformed punt would be for a long black candlestick today.

I doubt Mac Bank is happy today.

Out of interest, what data are you looking at ie what cash cost? What do you see as negatives. Thanks

Can you see anything wrong with my spreadsheet?

http://spreadsheets.google.com/pub?key=pU-CyOZ-EOdoG1MmpluLUCQ

[cuttlefish]

I've been tempted to buy in but holding off. The Gwalia thing worries me - it has seemed ambitious from the start, they've had some small delays and overruns already and I'm not convinced there won't be more.

The placement overhang is large and the tanking of the share price of a 'blue chip' stock means the margin call/forced sell pressure will still be there in the background as well. It might settle but I think until they demonstrate they've really got the Leonora thing under control the market might remain cautious.

My calls have been appalling lately though so this is probably a buy signal.

[Trembling Hand]

Cash costs nearly at spot. I think that's why the price is tanking.

From the quarterly report,

Cash cost for year was at $555 AUD and $646AUD for quarter. spot price around 980ish AUD :confused:

[Uncle Festivus]

From the quarterly report,

Cash cost for year was at $555 AUD and $646AUD for quarter. spot price around 980ish AUD :confused:

Not sure either???

SBM made $55million profit before exploration & other expenses last fin year on production of 155koz, and have made a pretty confident guidance of a target of 300koz this fin year. Even discounting the profit margin by assuming the last qtr small increase, due to mill problems, carries over, we are still looking at a company worth more than the current share price.

The exploration potential has been totally discounted before the new issue at 54c, let alone now at 24c this morning. The reserves upgrade has more than made up for the dilution by the issue, in fact on my calc it is more per share than before.

[VViCKiD]

From a technical perspective, this one looks like it's fallen through support of ~30 cents .. the capital raising really screwed this one up ...
:banghead::banghead::banghead:

no idea where support will be next as it hasn't been this low in ages ... :eek:

[Paladin]

Not sure either???

SBM made $55million profit before exploration & other expenses last fin year on production of 155koz, and have made a pretty confident guidance of a target of 300koz this fin year. Even discounting the profit margin by assuming the last qtr small increase, due to mill problems, carries over, we are still looking at a company worth more than the current share price.

The exploration potential has been totally discounted before the new issue at 54c, let alone now at 24c this morning. The reserves upgrade has more than made up for the dilution by the issue, in fact on my calc it is more per share than before.

As I understand it (and to repeat, I'm an idiot and getting my advice via my Sudanese taxi driver) $646 is after cost of sales adjustments and does not factor in depreciation etc. So some are pegging real cash costs at around the $800 mark which is close enough to the spot to be uncomfortable. But on the plus side, that's an aberrant result due to the crusher failure etc (how up front was the company about this, though?) and the company is nicely cashed up. Watching the stock today it looks like it's finding some support this afternoon. Bullish on this stock, and wanting to buy in when the price finds genuine support, but unsure where it will go from here. It seems to all hinge on Gwalia. Mac Bank, with its shares in other gold producers, is ideally placed to be sending out the takeover feelers, IMO.

The cashflow statement will be interesting reading. But please, everyone, weight my opinion lightly. I'm a newbie and learning the ropes myself.

[Family_Guy]

Well.......6 driectors have topped up, so it can't be all that bad.....could it?
I topped up at .25c, so i'm happy, and the last 2 days have seen a slight rise each day.

[Onvil]

Yeap - at 40c, so looks like they took up their entitlement, so they are showing some integrity (and hopefully confidence in SBMs future). Lucky for the holders, imagine what would have happened to the sp if they didn't.

Big drop in gold this week (esp overnight) could eliminate any positives from the announcements.

[Ashsaege]

I read in the Financial Review, a couple days ago, that there were a number of loyal shareholders who took up the 40cent offer - which shows good loyalty and confidence.... considering that at one stage you could pick up a few almost 50% cheaper on the market!

I would post the article... but we don't keep the Fin here at work

[Uncle Festivus]

I also notice that the bid/ask volume ratio is now back with the bidders 'favour' eg 7.3m bid, 4.4m ask, quit a change from Monday even. If only the gold price came to the party, we would have had a much better 're-rating' of SBM. Fundamentals coming through for the true believers ;)

[GoHardHomie]

Anyone able to shed light on a row in Table 5: Cash operating Costs (page 4) in the June Quarterly Report?

The one i don't understand is the 'Cost of Sales Adjustments' for 153? It brings the cash costs down from $799 to $646

Cheers

[Ashsaege]

Cost of Sales Adjustments relates (I think) to the costs involve with suppliers, purchases etc for that period. So the Cash that leaves the business, during the period, that is involved with sales.

[nioka]

Anyone able to shed light on a row in Table 5: Cash operating Costs (page 4) in the June Quarterly Report?

The one i don't understand is the 'Cost of Sales Adjustments' for 153? It brings the cash costs down from $799 to $646

Cheers
It is possibly a credit against the costs of mining stockpiled ore not processed to extract the gold and which will be processed in the following financial year. If it's not that then it is a mystery to me.

[Uncle Festivus]

Anyone able to shed light on a row in Table 5: Cash operating Costs (page 4) in the June Quarterly Report?

The one i don't understand is the 'Cost of Sales Adjustments' for 153? It brings the cash costs down from $799 to $646

Cheers

I have made enquires, and the consensus is this is another way to transfer/capitalise some current 'costs' that can't be attributable to the current qtr, to the future ie shows up as Deferred Mining Costs? Spreading current 'common' costs over the life of the mine or against future production?

[eddyeagle]

Things are definitely looking a little less glum in the past few days for SBM!
Good to see the directors buying in.
5% rise today despite a $25 fall in gold!
Now I just need SBM to double in price and I'll be back in the black! :)

[Paladin]

Things are definitely looking a little less glum in the past few days for SBM!
Good to see the directors buying in.
5% rise today despite a $25 fall in gold!
Now I just need SBM to double in price and I'll be back in the black! :)

Well I'm not really factoring these director buys as a positive - though am happy to be corrected. As I understand it, the directors aren't strictly speaking buying in now - they're just taking up their 40c shares from the dismal offering recently. Which means they've all taken big hits (I think Ed lost about $460k as soon as that went through - the diff between the 40c he paid and the current SP). So the director buys, as I read them, reflect the confidence they had in the business a couple of months ago when they took up the offer, and when the SP was much higher than 40c, rather than that they have today (as with Macquarie). Did they have the option NOT to take the shares at 40c if the SP fell? I don't think so.

PS: I hope I'm not in breach of protocol, but seeing as there is so much mixed opinion on what the bl**dy costs of sales adjustments are, I've posted a thread about it in the newbies forum here in case someone not following this stock can shed some light. The guy at the Kebab shop who gives me all my tips in return for me holding him gently told me that I should be counting the actual cash costs as inclusive of that adjustment:

http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=317935#post317935

[dizzy]

Notice of a Director's SALES today

11M shares sold 21, 22, 23rd July

Average price 26cents

Quote from announcement:

"Mr Eshuys informed the Company that he sold 11 million shares on-market on 21, 22 and 23 July 2008 following a rearrangement of his margin
lending facility."

Interesting . . .

[Onvil]

Hope the short sellers don't smell blood and attack the stock - ala - Eddie Groves and ABC.

Rise Gold rise

[Paladin]

Hope the short sellers don't smell blood and attack the stock - ala - Eddie Groves and ABC.

Rise Gold rise

As per my previous post, Ed took a hammering on the failed offering. So clearly he's bought on margin (poor guy) and had to dump the shares he paid .40c for at market immediately - which accounts for the much of the high volume on the 21/22/23rd and also the share plummet on those days. So the shorters have probably already missed the boat. Unless the market fails to read the story for what it is.

As I said, the buys on the 21st weren't a sign of confidence at all. The SP has rallied fairly well, all things considered. Let's hope none of the other directors have to sell at well under what they paid to cover themselves.

Still no definite news on the cost of sales adjustments. That, for me, is the sword hanging over the short term potential of this stock. Whatever that 'adjustment' was makes for the difference between a mid and high cost producer.

[MRC & Co]

Hope the short sellers don't smell blood and attack the stock - ala - Eddie Groves and ABC.

Rise Gold rise

Here we go again.

Can you even short sell SBM other than through a synthetic market such as CFDs?

[cuttlefish]

As far as I understand it you can short anything you can organise a borrow for (I've not done it I don't play in that league).


In relation to SBM - the forced sell is one thing - and its nice to see the market did absorb it and recover so maybe that sets a good floor - but its a bit of a worry that he had to sell it on market and couldn't find someone to place it with (unless it was sold without his approval or input).

A market like this with the forced selldowns can present great opportunities - I'm not fully convinced that this is one of them yet though.

I did end up picking up a few over the past few days after it seemed to find some support, but not too many - I'm still a bit wary of the leonora startup and would like to see that bedded down, and a clearer picture of operating performance overall, before getting too carried away.

[nick2fish]

Still no definite news on the cost of sales adjustments. That, for me, is the sword hanging over the short term potential of this stock. Whatever that 'adjustment' was makes for the difference between a mid and high cost producer.

With the share price of this company languishing around explorer levels ie: @ sbm reserve potential I really can't see how cost of sales is that important.
I know for a fact that there is not too many producing gold miners who are trading @ less than 0.30. (And I own them both):(.
SBM is cheap for what it has.
Gawlia decline is almost complete and into the high grade ore which will bring production costs down.
The swords hanging over SBM are Macs holdings, punter sentiment and POG
But then its only going to drop another 0.05 cause any lower would be ridiculous IMO

[explod]

I know for a fact that there is not too many producing gold miners who are trading @ less than 0.30. (And I own them both):(.
SBM is cheap for what it has.
Gawlia decline is almost complete and into the high grade ore which will bring production costs down.
The swords hanging over SBM are Macs holdings, punter sentiment and POG
But then its only going to drop another 0.05 cause any lower would be ridiculous IMO

To add, I watch size of buys on market and since Monday buy parcels have been much larger than sells, at times 75%. First time since mid June.

And unless they put the whole of Fort Knox on the market in the next week I dont believe it will go down .05 either. We will marvel at the low of .245 one day soon.

[cuttlefish]

Its difficult - it seems like such a good opportunity and I did buy some shares last week but the more closely I look I'm still not convinced. I just had a detailed read through the Dec 07 half yearly report - and the gold operations at the moment are only marginally profitable and the development expenditure has been significant. There is a lot of risk around the startup of a new underground operation - grade in particular is paramount as we've seen in other operations that have started up of late. (If I understand the current quarterly they are doing grade control drilling at the moment?).

Regardless of the size of the operation profitability is obviously crucial to value. Not trying to be deliberately negative - just offering additional input and happy to hear further views.


Excerpt from Dec 07 cashflow report (this is just the operating cashflows I didn't include development and investing cashflows)

Receipts from customers (inclusive of GST) 71,053
Payments to suppliers and employees (inclusive of GST) (62,171)
Interest received 2,492
Interest paid (4,000)
Finance charges – hire purchase agreements (42)
Borrowing costs paid (165)

Net cash flow from operating activities 7,167

[cuttlefish]

I know for a fact that there is not too many producing gold miners who are trading @ less than 0.30. (And I own them both)

There's more than two producers trading below .30c but price isn't important ayway, market cap is. (market cap vs current and future profitability is what is most important).

[Uncle Festivus]

Notice of a Director's SALES today

11M shares sold 21, 22, 23rd July

Average price 26cents

Quote from announcement:

"Mr Eshuys informed the Company that he sold 11 million shares on-market on 21, 22 and 23 July 2008 following a rearrangement of his margin
lending facility."

Interesting . . .

The irony of the margin call - forced to sell at the absolute bottom, then watch as the price rebounds. Some corporate skull duggery going on?

Fridays closing bid/ask volume ratio

206 buyers for 8,498,260 units 132 sellers for 3,851,677 units

Generally, another body blow for the money shufflers gives hard assets the disconnective edge. When will gold equities de-couple from the rest? LGL looking tasty again?

[kbxk508]

SBM Stats (current)

EV per Ounce (Resource): 38.6 A$/oz
Market Cap: 406 A$m
Reserve: 3.07Moz
Resource: 10.56Moz
Cash & Investments: 120 A$m
Liabilities: 171.6 A$m
Put Options: 34.6 A$m market to market (30/6)
Total Cost per Ounce: 632 A$ (if cash cost is 560 A$/oz)

There are 7 other gold producers (KCN, RSG, AVO, CGX, MDL, DOM and AXM) with a Market Cap between 250 and 550 A$m including SBM with an Average EV per Ounce (Resource) 129.3 A$/oz.

Of these RSG has the highest cash cost 674 A$/oz with EV 55.4 A$/oz. Next highest are SBM and AXM whose EV is 77.5 A$/oz.

When SBMs price touched 24.5c its EV was a low 30.4 A$/oz and this for a company that is aiming to produce 300koz in 08/09 - amazing.

[kenny]

How open is the register for SBM? I noticed it has about 1.3 billion shares with another 13.6 million listed options.

SBM is still unhedged isn't it?

kbxk508,

Thanks for the summary. How did you come to that cash operating cost? I vaguely recall the last quarterly saying the FY08 COS was closer to $555/oz.

Cheers,

Kenny

[kbxk508]

How open is the register for SBM? I noticed it has about 1.3 billion shares with another 13.6 million listed options.

SBM is still unhedged isn't it?

kbxk508,

Thanks for the summary. How did you come to that cash operating cost? I vaguely recall the last quarterly saying the FY08 COS was closer to $555/oz.

Cheers,

Kenny

Hi Kenny,

Total Cost per Ounce (TCO) = (EV + Development Costs)/Mineable Ounces + Cash Cost per Ounce of Production

EV = Market Cap - Financial Assets* + Debt/Liabilitites = 401.7 A$m
Development Costs = 136.5 A$m, i.e. 126.5 A$m for Gwalia and 10 A$m for Southern Cross (re: Prospectus)
Mineable Oz = 100% of Reserve + 60% of (Resource - Reserve)

* Financial Assets: Cash (June Qtr), Investments: 49.534m BDG shrs, Put Options market to market (June Qtr), Inventories (Dec Half), Trade Receivables (Dec Half).

Note: I chose not to include property, plant & equipment, exploration & evaluation and deferred mining assets in my calculations. Had I included these in the calculation then EV is 221.7 A$m and EV/oz (Resource) is 21.0 A$/oz.

kbxk508

[oldblue]

Macquarie Equities have an "Outperform" on SBM with a target price of 60c after "coming off research restrictions".
I guess that means that they were involved in the recent capital raising.

DYOR

[kenny]

Thanks kbxk508,

I must have been reading just the Cost of Production in the Quarterly. Good to have you incorporate the Dev costs and EV.

Oldblue,

Macquarie Capital were the underwriters for the recently completed 2 for 7 entitlement offer. They had to pick up the 123.5 million share shortfall. The funds were for Gwalia, Southern Cross projects and the usual "working capital requirements".

Cheers,

Kenny

[dizzy]

Broker Target Prices:

Out of four brokers who cover SBM (but there could be others) two had it as a HOLD, and two a BUY (as at 23rd July).

Their target prices ranged from 30 cents to $1.20

The average of the target prices was 84 cents.

(Source: Australian Super Stock Report)

[Onvil]

Can anyone shed any light re: broker target prices. ie when they have a target price of $X, do they indicate when they expect this to occur?

[dizzy]

Can anyone shed any light re: broker target prices. ie when they have a target price of $X, do they indicate when they expect this to occur?

I'm assuming they are 12-month targets but I haven't seen it written down - perhaps this could be confirmed (or otherwise) by someone who knows for sure.

[Uncle Festivus]

Targets are ephemeral in this climate, as no matter how good the underlying fundamentals are, if someone or the market generally has an agenda then not much will stand in their way. It has to be especially good news to sway this market?

It looks as if there is some unfinished portfolio re-adjustments still going on today with some suspiciously large and pronounced sell orders taking the bidders out. (Ed, is that you?)

Normally after this type of rebound there is some sort of counter selling but not back to previous lows if the first rally was genuine, so looking for a double bottom of sorts? Maybe 28c to test support, any techo's care/brave enough to comment?

[oldblue]

I'm assuming they are 12-month targets but I haven't seen it written down - perhaps this could be confirmed (or otherwise) by someone who knows for sure.


Macquarie Equities, for one, express theirs as " 12 month targets". Don't know about anyone else but it would seem reasonable to assume unless specified otherwise.

:)

[lsj84]

Duetsch bank gave the latest target price at 0.3. Goldman gave at 0.6+, other smaller ones all gave 0.6 or above i remember. source: blommberg terminal

[kbxk508]

Anyone able to shed light on a row in Table 5: Cash operating Costs (page 4) in the June Quarterly Report?

The one i don't understand is the 'Cost of Sales Adjustments' for 153? It brings the cash costs down from $799 to $646

Cheers

Cost of Sales Adjustment = Revenue other than that through Gold Sales, i.e. Silver and Base Metals Sales, Inventories, Bank Interest, Realised gain on gold derivatives etc.

e.g. in FY2007 this was 24.5 A$m on 171.2 koz or 143 A$/oz which is in line with what they quote every qtr. Just my opinion. Cheers.

kbxk508

[Uncle Festivus]

It's not finished yet comrades, going by the multiple 500k lot SELL orders lined up, hitting 28c this morn. Although the other side of the equation is - who is buying up??? A bit more "sell soaking" to go yet, hopefully to line up with the cyclical gold bull breakout August/September? Note to SBM directors - don't buy on margin if you can't cover it!!!!

Edit:someone playing silly buggers now, big orders pulled? Market manipulation/capping?

[MRC & Co]

Edit:someone playing silly buggers now, big orders pulled? Market manipulation/capping?

Yep, it's why you can really only take what goes to market. A little bit of a scare/or joy and big orders in the cue can evaporate mighty quickly without ever hitting the market. :banghead:

I'm watching closely for a set-up, accumulation taking place by the looks.

[Onvil]

Is anyone aware when Gwalia will actually commence production. SBM continually state the Sept qtr, but given we're now in August, sure they could be a bit more specific.

[Uncle Festivus]

Is anyone aware when Gwalia will actually commence production. SBM continually state the Sept qtr, but given we're now in August, sure they could be a bit more specific.

Eshuys interview on SBM website -




Feasibility study projections of a modest contribution to production from Gwalia Deeps in the
September quarter, a more meaningful one in the December quarter, and 95,000oz for FY09,
were on track, he said.



Still looking for the double bottom to form around these levels.

[Family_Guy]

I bought these at 25 2 weeks ago and sold when i made my goal of a 10% ,full profit in a couple of days. I'm very happy to jump back on at these prices and have bought again at 26 and placed at 25 and 24, just incase. I've even dipped into the extra funds for these. Bring it, biarch!!

Only, this time i will break my goals set out and hold.........so my warning is not to buy :2twocents, as i will break my goal i'm bound to fail.

Please do not follow what i do, i just got karma'd.

[Uncle Festivus]

Doh, looks like Ed has been margined again, 3 big parcels gone through this arvo dropping the price to 21c. I can see the picture in the real estate window - For Sale, a gold mine with $120m cash, 300kozs per year gold production, 10moz resources. Some corporate raiders circling now??

[rub92me]

Finally bought in today at 21 cents with stop at 18.5 cents. It'll do whatever the market decides, but it's looking plenty oversold to me.

[noirua]

Finally bought in today at 21 cents with stop at 18.5 cents. It'll do whatever the market decides, but it's looking plenty oversold to me.
I've done the same, buying that is, no stops. Purely on looking at the chart and hoping forecasts for a US$1200 per oz price come true.
The Aussie is falling against the Greenback with talk of the exchange rate falling a lot further.

[cookiedude]

Damn. SBM down 34% in 2 days… To good to pass on.. Bought a small / speculative parcel today for 0.18

[VViCKiD]

Can anyone explain to me why this stock has been castrated and hung alive ? The fundamentals seem sound although production costs are slightly high. I bought in originally at 0.65 and have been hurting ever since ! I really can't understand why this stock has been hit harder than any other gold stock out there

[ronnieling]

I bought in at 69.5c and theres alot of Red in my Portfolio.

The price got absolutely drilled before and after the retail capital raising resulting in a very small take-up and leaving the underwriters with the overhang.

[lsj84]

What's going on here, trading at a price like a to-be-bankrupt company. i think if the company can hold on until this selling frenzy pass off there would be a great come back. there shouldnt be any solvency issue? any1 knows why Duetsche bank gives 0.3 price target?

[JAVN1]

A lot of people hurting in the last few months. Just when you think its hit rock bottom it keeps falling. Bought in at .031 they went as low as .18 today.

Can anyone shed some light on this relatively health company with good prospects.

Not to mention Gwalia which will be on line soon.

[solomon]

A month ago I thought that things were going to get bad for SBM... due to three 5% plus holders all selling below the 5% reporting radar, which meant they could keep selling about 80mill shares (rough guess) each.


...

The other bad news is that Merrill Lynch has also been a net seller, (added to AMP and Barclays) though I have now idea how to read all that stock loaning and returning stuff - it looks like someone in NY has been playing - and losing on this one (but that is a superficial reading of the data).

Anyway all of this actually says 2 things to me - hold on they can't sell forever - things maybe worse with the financials than we realise which is good for gold, but bad for people and the world at large.
...
caveat: NFA - DYOR

My take on this would be that there are some major players hurting and are forced to keep selling out and other small players who have been hit with increasing margin calls or sell out. Merrill Lynch is my guess for the hurting giant. There is news about that they are selling out of their CDO's which is linked to why NAB have written down (orwas it off ... I'm not following it) their CDO exposure of about $890m. So if Merrill Lynch is hurting bad and near the edge of collapse that would explain why there is selling at any price. In other markets buyers would jump in, but in this market my guess is that there is so much uncertainty about that the big money is sitting on the sidelines.

I doubled up at about 0.35c and am considering going again if it hits 16c.

All of the above is guess work, it ain't financial advice. Any others who want to try telling the tale of the ever sinking SBM price I'd love to hear it.

[noirua]

This problem with borrowings nearly brought down St Barbara in the early 1990's and again about 4 or 5 years ago.
The risk factor is much higher now, as once again, there is a risk of lower profits than expected should the gold price tank and stay low for many years.
Sons of Gwalia had great problems considering the mining of gold from Gwalia deeps, nearly 2,000 metres, and this project is no stroll in the park for St Barbara.

I'm still confident about SBM despite the recent falls and have added stock two days in a row.

[nioka]

What's going on here, trading at a price like a to-be-bankrupt company. i think if the company can hold on until this selling frenzy pass off there would be a great come back. there shouldnt be any solvency issue? any1 knows why Duetsche bank gives 0.3 price target?

The selling price for the shares need not be related to the general prospects although it normally would be. If there is unusual volume as there has been for the last 2 days, it couild be a leak of bad news to come but it is more likely to be pressured volume sellers. Sp does not inspire confidence.?????????

[explod]

I loaded up with more today.

The volume of sales for July was the highest in five years. Today we dropped through a support going back to Nov 05. Next strong support would be 10 cents. Todays volume was the highest since March.

There is still black box selling but it has eased back. Today my take is that selling is capitulation of longer term holders but it is being met with some very big buys. People are very scared and losing sight of fundamantals at this level. There is no hint or evidence of anything out of the ordinary.

If we look at other major stocks (and remember SBM got punished in the capital raising as well) LGL, AVO, RSG that I beleive are sound prospects, they are all now well below proper value. SBM of course are just not up to the line of production yet so are being hit harder.

On the overall activiities of buy sell today, and the factors above, a gold price rise will see this back above .30 in a heartbeat. .10, well, never say never but I would be going for more.

[ans25]

Wow, I cant believe this is so low...hmm tempted to to go for more but dont want to catch a falling knife, maybe will go in once it has a string of nice solid days... too risky now me thinks, esp on such a green day.

Interesting times ahead

[eddyeagle]

SBM is an absolute dog at the moment!

Does anyone know what Fat Prophets have to say about it as they were strongly recommending it when it was up around 60c-70c...?

[cuttlefish]

I bought in a smallish parcel at .29/.305 but sold half again as it started to fall further (at .27) and exited the rest today. They are not generating an operating profit from existing operations as far as I can tell but thats just my opinion. They have been burning quite a bit of cash on the gwalia development and on operating losses, and needed this recent cap raising quite badly. There is a lot of stock overhang from placements and from people that bought this as a blue chip stock to see it decimated. Ed wouldn't be the only one getting margin calls. If the Sons of gwalia mine startup has delays and cost overruns - or doesn't produce an operating profit - then I don't know where they are going to get the next tranche of cash from. I'm leaving it alone until there is definitive evidence that the sons of gwalia startup is working, or the gold price does a proper run up above $1000.

[jman2007]

I'm leaving it alone until there is definitive evidence that the sons of gwalia startup is working, or the gold price does a proper run up above $1000.

Yep,

I don't hold this stock, but I agree, Gwalia underground will test these guys mettle for sure. If there is one way that they can restore investor confidence in them, then a successful comissioning of this project and a relatively trouble-free first 6 months would be the way to do it. I will wait and see how this project develops, before forming a proper opinion of SBM.

[Family_Guy]

I should be changing my log in name. Missus walked out on me last night, so i thought i'll either make her rich or broke. Plunged $50k each on this and LGL today and i'll do it again tomorrow with the rest of our savings. Once the papers are signed, she can have the portfolio. She'll end up being mega wealthy, or living off the govt. If these go up and you are single, PM me for her ph number.......but be warned......she has baggage. Not a bad cook but. Once a monther, keeps the house clean. Nice house. No animals.

[refined silver]

I should be changing my log in name. Missus walked out on me last night, so i thought i'll either make her rich or broke. Plunged $50k each on this and LGL today and i'll do it again tomorrow with the rest of our savings. Once the papers are signed, she can have the portfolio. She'll end up being mega wealthy, or living off the govt. If these go up and you are single, PM me for her ph number.......but be warned......she has baggage. Not a bad cook but. Once a monther, keeps the house clean. Nice house. No animals.

Ouch!!

Yeah, a bit ironic about the log-in name under those circumstances. Life can be like that.

Depending on how long it takes to cash in on the portfolio, especially if it takes a little while I think she'll do quite well out of those two. Won't you get half? She might be back shortly anyway.....

[MRC & Co]

Ouch!!

Yeah, a bit ironic about the log-in name under those circumstances. Life can be like that.



Yeh, but not if he behaved like Peter Griffin! ;)

he he, love that show!

In all seriousness though, sorry to hear.

[Paladin]

Well at least now we have a reason for the two bottoms in recent weeks. Bl*!dy Ed and his margin loan.

I've filled my boots at between .19 and .225, and now that wall at .23 is sold out I reckon we'll see some more upward correction to come.

It will be nice if it can break .3 again, but I reckon the market is probably still feeling gun shy about this one.

And yeah, given the POG they really need to release something about projected cash costs - because the balance sheet isn't looking too great (that said, at least they are cashed up and moderately hedged).

[Family_Guy]

I dont have charts, but watching this and i reckon this has become a Dtrader stock.......ranging is over a few cents and has been for some time with some decent orders. Looks like peeps are trading a couple of ticks (half cents). Any thoughts??

[Paladin]

I dont have charts, but watching this and i reckon this has become a Dtrader stock.......ranging is over a few cents and has been for some time with some decent orders. Looks like peeps are trading a couple of ticks (half cents). Any thoughts??

Hey FG.

Yeah - some good intraday trading to be had on this stock, and some good in and out trading recently between the .18 and .24 marks, but volatility is easing and a floor appears to have been found at around the current sp with limited downside at the moment and quite some upside potential short term.

I'm in with a moderate parcel at .20 average now. I have additional buys placed if it hits .23 with decent volume.

Some good informal news out of Gwalia recently. As most know Ed has been on the ground there for a while, hence his not appearing at the D&D conference. Delays at Gwalia appear to have been caught up with. Word is that they're crushing ore there at the moment and are basically ready for commissioning. Keep a close eye on the SP and look for company announcements, as there may be some (very) good news on the horizon.

These are, of course, rumours and value them accordingly, but we could be ready for a spike sooner rather than later.

[Paladin]

Just to add to the above post. I've re-read it today, and realised it may well come off as ramping.

So to present a flip-side, other factors that are not to be discounted with this stock are:

1. Mr market hates it. The company has made such terrible mistakes with the recent raising and so on that I suspect any bad news will be reacted to and punished swiftly.

2. There's a large overhang there with Macquarie. They've obviously been left holding a very big bag here, and while the chances of them liquidating on-market would seem low (simply because that now they're such a big holder it would be very against their interest to hammer the SP down) the chances of them wanting to recoup their investment are doubtless high. There's a real chance that any rallies with this stock will be sold into heavily by investors large and small.

What I did feel I have done wrong in the above post is reveal infromation that is unsubstantiated and off-market. So please do treat it accordingly. Any and all of my assumptions could well be wrong.

Good one to have on a watchlist, though. And a good one to learn the intraday patterns of if you're into DT.

Have a lovely weekend all.

[explod]

2. There's a large overhang there with Macquarie. They've obviously been left holding a very big bag here, and while the chances of them liquidating on-market would seem low (simply because that now they're such a big holder it would be very against their interest to hammer the SP down) the chances of them wanting to recoup their investment are doubtless high. There's a real chance that any rallies with this stock will be sold into heavily by investors large and small.

Have a lovely weekend all.

I notice that every time the sell side gets down to a few hundred thousand someone drops a further million. Wonder if Mq are having margin problems and have to let go. Of course big numbers began buying as it went at .25 and again (as I did) at .20 and it has been sideways since.

I can find not a whisper (apart from the dilution from share issue) that can give any belief other than this will have great upside when gold resumes its run.

Do we have other takes?

[Uncle Festivus]

Explod, the dilution issue has been addressed/neutralised with the increased reserve calcs? In fact, there is no dilution but a net gain in reserves per share.

Just updated my spreadsheet and with the worst case figures for cash costs being $800/oz, 3Moz reserves, the current projects amount to approx 35c per share. Assuming production does actually get up to the 300koz mark this year, this $150 margin should generate cash of $45m!

Looks like it's basing around 20c with the occasional thrust upwards to test the waters. Nearly anyone who bought within the last 2 years would be under so the overhang in this climate will be considerable, but not insurmountable with the passage of time. Just have to see how many shares Ed still has to dump to get out of his margin call??? At least he must have seen some potential to margin in with shares, until this corporate play dumped him in the s*it. Takeover potential?

[Paladin]

Explod, the dilution issue has been addressed/neutralised with the increased reserve calcs? In fact, there is no dilution but a net gain in reserves per share.

Just updated my spreadsheet and with the worst case figures for cash costs being $800/oz, 3Moz reserves, the current projects amount to approx 35c per share. Assuming production does actually get up to the 300koz mark this year, this $150 margin should generate cash of $45m!

Looks like it's basing around 20c with the occasional thrust upwards to test the waters. Nearly anyone who bought within the last 2 years would be under so the overhang in this climate will be considerable, but not insurmountable with the passage of time. Just have to see how many shares Ed still has to dump to get out of his margin call??? At least he must have seen some potential to margin in with shares, until this corporate play dumped him in the s*it. Takeover potential?

Hey unc. I reckon Ed is probably all done with the selling? Could be wrong. And I'm sure margining in made sense at the time, with the SP well over 3x what it is now. Not sure he'd be that optimistic these days, though. You make a great point about other holders, though. It's almost certain that any show of strength will be heavily sold into, either by opportunists like me who are in at current prices, or by longer term holders just wanting to recoup a best-case exit on their losses.

I would put recent selling down to just that rather than Mac. If Mac needed out, then I think they'd arrange parcels off-market. It would just be too devestating to their own interests to do it on market.

Here's hoping there's some +ve news out of Gwalia soon. From what I understand the delays have been addressed, but the SP could plummet again on any bad news, however minor.

As for takeovers, I can't see NCM going that way as an example. And I reckon there would be some other, less problematic, juniors who might make for a better bet. As they stand now, I would think that the SBM assets are just too high-cost in terms of production to be terribly attractive, unless the POG does something remarkable. It's possible, of course, but who knows how probable.

[nick2fish]

It's almost certain that any show of strength will be heavily sold into, either by opportunists like me who are in at current prices, or by longer term holders just wanting to recoup a best-case exit on their losses.
Thats the key point that will hold SBM down in the oversold category for quite some time yet.
On what I can see and have heard I'm holding long
On Gwalia they are almost there and the grade improvement will lower the overall mining costs.
Underground development is hugely expensive in so far as infrastructure,support and ventilation but thats behind them now.
I can't see a problem with this one but I keep checking this thread by the hour. I'm out on a limb and very nervous :)

[noirua]

Gwalia commissioning is proceeding to plan: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080917/pdf/31cbtyc116Vy7f.pdf

[Uncle Festivus]

Some interesting, some would say spectacular, grades from Tower & sale of the puts puts $25m in the coffers - anybody smell value yet?


Sale of Put Options
In early 2007, the Company purchased (at a cost of $8 million)
1,328,400 A$700 per ounce put options with maturity periods ranging
from July 2008 to April 2017 in order to secure the investment
decision to proceed with re‐developing the Gwalia mine.
The mine development to this stage and associated surface
infrastructure works are now substantially complete. Following a
review of the operation, the Company’s decision to sell all of these
options in current market conditions has realised proceeds of
approximately $25 million. These funds will further strengthen the
Company’s cash position.

[jman2007]

Some interesting, some would say spectacular, grades from Tower & sale of the puts puts $25m in the coffers - anybody smell value yet?

It's all about the depth mate,

Most of those intersections are around 250m downhole depth or more, and if you're hinting at an undeground scenario then this would barely hang together based on those grades. Interesting yes, and definitely worth follow-up drilling, but 20m@ 10g/t from 150m would be the money shot.

jman

[noirua]

I decided to add to my holding seeing that Gwalia "very" Deeps appears to be going along well now. No forward selling makes this one more of a pure gold price play.

As far as I'm concerned they're very ... and very much a ... at these prices.

[eddyeagle]

Loving the 20% jump today on SBM! It's about time gold stocks rallied given the current global crisis!

[noirua]

Loving the 20% jump today on SBM! It's about time gold stocks rallied given the current global crisis!

Yes indeed, what a jump, confidence suddenly flying high.
Rubicon signing of joint venture on the Rockdam joint venture is a good one as well.

[noirua]

Quite a change in the fortunes of St Barbara Mining, up 60% in a couple of weeks.
Gwalia Deeps proved very difficult and shows what problems Sons of Gwalia once had.
So it looks like an improving situation.

[solomon]

I noticed (when I was looking today) that the market depth profile had changed. By profile I mean, over the last 9 months (maybe more) whenever SBM approached the upper end of the days trading range (usually about 2-3cents) someone(s) would add approx a 500,000 sell order, the same thing was happening on the downside.

But today that didn't seem to happen, was it the absence of the traders that rely on short selling? Or was it just a change in sentiment? or both?

[explod]

I noticed (when I was looking today) that the market depth profile had changed. By profile I mean, over the last 9 months (maybe more) whenever SBM approached the upper end of the days trading range (usually about 2-3cents) someone(s) would add approx a 500,000 sell order, the same thing was happening on the downside.

But today that didn't seem to happen, was it the absence of the traders that rely on short selling? Or was it just a change in sentiment? or both?

I noticed, and just confirmed by looking at the day chart that a big player moved in and purchased about 9 million shares between 2.30 and 3pm. I think the late trader retarder who I have watched too has been washed away. SBM will return to true value very quickly from here in my view. I would say 60 to 70 cents and back to 90 when US gold goes to a new weekly high.

I own shares in the company and have been wrong in my assessments many times.

[eddyeagle]

I noticed, and just confirmed by looking at the day chart that a big player moved in and purchased about 9 million shares between 2.30 and 3pm. I think the late trader retarder who I have watched too has been washed away. SBM will return to true value very quickly from here in my view. I would say 60 to 70 cents and back to 90 when US gold goes to a new weekly high.

I own shares in the company and have been wrong in my assessments many times.

Nice disclaimer!

Lets hope for all shareholders it gets back up to those levels as soon as possible!

[Paladin]

Well, it's been an interesting week that's for sure. 35c with a bullet. There have definately been some big plays recently. Imagine how Ed must feel having to dump all his shares at the prices he got for them. Still, as a recipient, not complaining too much.

There was quite a bit of resistance at the .33 mark but it seems to have been pierced with not too much hastle. As (or perhaps, more cautiously, if) we get closer to .40 I should expect turbulence to increase.

It's a worry that the company seems to be burning through cash so quickly. That said, looks like the market has finally lost its shyness around this stock. So long as no more capital is needed, and so long as the POG holds at $800 plus then I do see more upside here.

Well done to all holders. It was hairy there for a while!

[solomon]

This chart is a bit interesting, showing that before the capital raising SBM essentially mirrored NCM. SBM seems to have recoupled, so to speak, but still lags considerably behind. That is it hasn't caught up the lost ground.

24187

Could there be even further upside with SBM, i.e. might we see it close the gap to NCM?

[solomon]

Well someone is listening or thinking in the same kind of way SBM up today, and closing the gap, with NCM slightly down. Check out the 1 month comparison. SBM is the black line in this graph.
24202

I also noticed today early on and then again later that someone put the 1 million sell side play on to try and cap the up (or put downward pressure on). Both the times I saw it, a buyer came in and just smashed it, taking out the whole order. Another nice day with SBM closing up 7%.

Lets bring on 40c and then 50c explod.

[eddyeagle]

That chart against NCM is interesting - shows how much SBM was smashed!
Another solid day today.
Did anyone on this forum have the balls to buy/top up a few weeks ago at 19-20c? Well done if you did!
Fat Prophets yesterday advised to get in around 30 cents...

[solomon]

I didn't buy more at 20c because I was fully loaded up by then. But I didride it all the way down - at one point I was down 60% :banghead: I'm now hoping to ride it up a little longer and maybe break even.:)

[nioka]

Did anyone on this forum have the balls to buy/top up a few weeks ago at 19-20c? Well done if you did! ..
No I didn't buy more but I wasn't "stopped"out as I think a lot were. This is a stock where the fundamentals said hold and they were right. The "market" isn't always right. I suggest this one was a victim of unregulated short selling.

[Paladin]

Yeah. As per my previous posts, after having a ball daytrading this I've been long for a while now. Fairly happy, although the rapidity of the movement makes me think a retrace is on the cards. If it can break and hold .40 then that's a pretty bullish sign, to say the least.

[Ashsaege]

I think it's time to come out of hibernation.
October should be a pretty interesting month for SBM. Gold prices should hopefully rise like they did early on in the year when everything else went to S@#t.

[Uncle Festivus]

The weird thing is that Aus gold has breached $1100 yet some goldies like SBM have been contaminated by the rest of them. Although, SBM has had a good advance from the lows and was probably getting ahead of itself (nearly 100% gain from the lows :D), or the into's were going along for the ride until it looked like turning over again?

The final bid/ask numbers suggested not much vigour in the sellers ranks so if overnight gold holds up we may find some support here?

Still not valued for 300koz production at $1100/oz?

[explod]

The techos jumped on this on the 17th and 18th and have taken profits on overall market concerns in my view.

Sitting on support now at 29 cents, the drop brought buyers back in, notice the fall of the last 4 days was on light volume.

[Ashsaege]

The techos jumped on this on the 17th and 18th and have taken profits on overall market concerns in my view.

Sitting on support now at 29 cents, the drop brought buyers back in, notice the fall of the last 4 days was on light volume.

light volume is better than heavy volume when things head south... not as much momentum behind it all! still a bit frustrating tho

[noirua]

There has been a lot of reports about increased interest in buying gold in the States, yesterday. Australian gold companies must be feeling comfortable as gold trades near its peak in Aussie Dollar terms.
Everything looks set fair now for SBM after all the earlier cash raising.

[solomon]

In the days of tight credit I'm looking at companies that won't need to refinance any time soon. From reading of the SBM balance sheet SBM's debt funding looks like it is almost all through preference shares. Which seems to me to be a good thing, is that analysis correct?

Also what happens if they can't pay the interest on the preference shares?

[oldblue]

I don't know the specific terms of the SBM prefs but it is usual for dividends to accrue and to be payable before any divs are paid to ordinary shareholders. There isn't usually any automatic right to demand redemption or conversion in the event of non-payment of div but you would need to check out terms of issue.

[solomon]

In the days of tight credit I'm looking at companies that won't need to refinance any time soon. From reading of the SBM balance sheet SBM's debt funding looks like it is almost all through preference shares. Which seems to me to be a good thing, is that analysis correct?

Also what happens if they can't pay the interest on the preference shares?

Oops I'm a bit of a goose. It isn't preference shares at all, back in mid 2007 they issued A$100 million of 5 year convertible notes at 8% interest. At maturity the holders can either convert or collect the principle and interest.

[oldblue]

Well, that chunk of the financing looks to be set until 2012.The terms of convertible note issues often allow the issuer to redeem or convert early but holders don't get that option!


;)

[Bobcat]

With the gold price gone up to US$918.30 I thought the sp would be following. Is it because of the weak Aus dollar that SBM's price is not following the rises in gold price?

[noirua]

With the gold price gone up to US$918.30 I thought the sp would be following. Is it because of the weak Aus dollar that SBM's price is not following the rises in gold price?
The price should be heading up because of the weak Aussie$, trouble is, pannick and forced selling is pushing everything down. I haven't bought SBM for a few weeks, tempting, imho.

[solomon]

With the gold price gone up to US$918.30 I thought the sp would be following. Is it because of the weak Aus dollar that SBM's price is not following the rises in gold price?

Gold stocks closed down considerably (approx 8%) last night in the US, so there is probably caution in our market. Also the rally in gold last night occurred after the stock exchange closed, so the US gold stocks wouldn't have reflected it.

[Uncle Festivus]

Interesting to see the support for SBM the last few sessions bouncing back from 23c this morning even under pressure from the broader market sell off, with a consistent programmed buyer nibbling away at the ask price, and a large buyer (250k?) dropping buy orders in frequently. Sellers drying up?

Some sort of corporate action in the gold sector must be building? Someone accumulating? I'm calling the double bottom, unless there is a drastic collapse in the gold price?

[Ashsaege]

There has been some decent sideways action for SBM over the past few months - which is great bullish sign. Hopefully sellers are drying up!

[noirua]

St Barbara are probably only being held up in present times due to their loan book. Gold in Aussies is around AU$1,130 an ounce.

[noirua]

Analysts views for ft show an outperform rating for St Barbara: http://markets.ft.com/tearsheets/analysis.asp?s=AU%3ASBM

[noirua]

St Barbara is becoming more and more a straight gamble on gold's Aussie$ price. Costs are at AU$650 - AU$670 an ounce with gold presently around AU$1,270 an ounce.
Ore reserves are up 43% to 3.1 million ounces.

Debt is also a major worry with the banks feeling unable to increase their exposure. AU$120 million having been raised principally through a placing.

The main earner is the resilient Southern Cross mine that raised profits 20% to AU$55 million on the back of the Aussie gold price. Mine life is 4 to 5 years.

The Marvel Loch mine has 5 years left but has had problems with output.
Capital costs continue to be a problem at Gwalia Deeps.
Leonora higher grades at Tower Hill have confirmed the potential for an open-cut mine.
First pour at Leonora in October of 1,000 ozs came from the Gwalia West Lode.
Gwalia Deeps high grade commenced this quarter at a depth of 1,050 metres.

[nick2fish]

.
Capital costs continue to be a problem at Gwalia Deeps.
Gwalia Deeps high grade commenced this quarter at a depth of 1,050 metres.

Noirua, I don't understand how capital costs can still be a problem at Gwalia Deeps. I work underground and know that most capital expenditure is used to access the ore body which in SBM's case has already happened. The costs of mining once there are more than compensated by higher grades. Please explain. Cheers

[noirua]

Noirua, I don't understand how capital costs can still be a problem at Gwalia Deeps. I work underground and know that most capital expenditure is used to access the ore body which in SBM's case has already happened. The costs of mining once there are more than compensated by higher grades. Please explain. Cheers

Hi nick2fish, I understand that the Barden Decline is presently only at the first production level of 1,050 meters below surface levels, and is continuing further. Complimenting ore from Marvel Loch and Gwalia Deeps continues. Also complimenting Tower Hill with Gwalia Deeps.

[bankit]

Hi All,
The market liked the news that a new CEO has been appointed this morning
http://www.stbarbara.com.au/uploads/tx_rlsortthis/081217_asxa_MD_CEO.pdf
though I still regard Eshuys as very competent and glad to see he will be retained as a consultant.

The outlook for SBM looks good and I feel it now has some catchup to be done and this should happen if gold continues upward.

Bankit

[noirua]

An encouraging quarter from St Barbara announced today has helped the share price.
Production at Gwalia Deeps has risen 84% compared with the last quarter.

SBM expect production of 145,000 to 155,000 ounces in the second half compared with just 104,000oz in the first half.

Encouragingly costs have fallen from A$815 per ounce to A$750 per ounce.

A brighter light amongst the gloom.

[nick2fish]

Cheers Noirua, Certainly is an improved quarterly and I am wondering if SBM has turned a corner. Renewed positive investor confidence would certainly ensure improved sp performance which has lagged behind overall gains in the gold sector.

Since 17/11/08 LGL up 58%, NCM up 50% and SGX up 53%

[eddyeagle]

Great news!

With gold hovering around A$1300 – hopefully SBM can have a decent run going forward!

[ptony1948]

Hello all. I bought SBM a couple of months ago on the strength of watching Peter Schiff on you tube. He predicts huge moves in gold price as usd is devalued. My question to other forumites is this. With so many shares on issue for sbm(1.8 billion last I checked) what kind of move in the gold price would have to happen to move sbm into the $1 to $2 range? Tony

[prawn_86]

Hello all. I bought SBM a couple of months ago on the strength of watching Peter Schiff on you tube. He predicts huge moves in gold price as usd is devalued. My question to other forumites is this. With so many shares on issue for sbm(1.8 billion last I checked) what kind of move in the gold price would have to happen to move sbm into the $1 to $2 range? Tony

ptony,

a very basic analysis of your question:

for SBM to be on a PE of 10 at $1 per share they would need to be earning about $180 mill pa or $360 mill pa for a PE of 10 at $2 per share. Obviously there are numerous possibilities, but thats a starting point.

How much are they earning now? My understanding is the mine is relatively high cost and has difficult metallurgy

[paulchow2k]

Interesting analysis. Friday's action shows price rejection @ 34c. so it's going to be interesting to watch next week's reaction.


Hi All,
The market liked the news that a new CEO has been appointed this morning
http://www.stbarbara.com.au/uploads/tx_rlsortthis/081217_asxa_MD_CEO.pdf
though I still regard Eshuys as very competent and glad to see he will be retained as a consultant.

The outlook for SBM looks good and I feel it now has some catchup to be done and this should happen if gold continues upward.

Bankit

[nunthewiser]

Interesting analysis. Friday's action shows price rejection @ 34c. so it's going to be interesting to watch next week's reaction.

HI, are you the same "paul chow" that told commsec chat that the CBA intraday bounce was a short cover rally ?



paulchow2k
23/01/2009 15:42:23
Stock Analysis shorters have just covered their positions...

paulchow2k
23/01/2009 15:42:35
Stock Analysis on CBA

paulchow2k
23/01/2009 15:46:35
Stock Analysis Winston: Gaim should be fine... this afternoon. The pros are covering some of the short positions. so it shouldn't fall too much

[bankit]

Hi All,
Brokers have started to take an interest in SBM at last with one predicting an initial price target of 46 cents.

Bankit

[Goldmann]

can you say what brokers??? very interested to know that brokers are actually starting to recommend gold - alot of them dont seem to subscribe too the gold v USD inflation hedge theory...

[kennas]

can you say what brokers??? Yes, bankit, you really need to provide that information, with a direct quote and link as well. Not saying the target doesn't exist, we just need it for transparancy. Cheers.

[eddyeagle]

From Bloomberg and all upgraded in the last week:

Patersons have a buy with price target 46c.
Macquarie have an outperform with price target 40c.
And GSJBW have a ‘sell’ with a price target of 40c.

Comparing the last two is quite amusing. Obviously a 20-30% gain from current prices is not enough for GSJBW to hold onto a stock!

[nunthewiser]

:D all i can say is .let them ramp it , reccomend it,place a buy, place a sell , date the ceo,s daughter

whatever :D

getting exposure is what counts

i hold and biased so please take above comments in the one eyed view in which it is given in

[noirua]

Costs in the second half have fallen to AU$750 per ounce with gold prices pushing past AU$1,350 an ounce. The final results will be based mostly on the US$ price and exchange rates during the period.

[bankit]

Yes, bankit, you really need to provide that information, with a direct quote and link as well. Not saying the target doesn't exist, we just need it for transparancy. Cheers.




From Bloomberg and all upgraded in the last week:

Patersons have a buy with price target 46c.
Macquarie have an outperform with price target 40c.
And GSJBW have a ‘sell’ with a price target of 40c.

Comparing the last two is quite amusing. Obviously a 20-30% gain from current prices is not enough for GSJBW to hold onto a stock!

Hi eddyeagle,

Thanks for posting that info. I was going to let kennas wait a bit longer as I can't see the point in replying quickly to messages with that sort of tone of his.

Bankit

[nunthewiser]

Hi eddyeagle,

Thanks for posting that info. I was going to let kennas wait a bit longer as I can't see the point in replying quickly to messages with that sort of tone of his.

Bankit

Um .i hold SBM ........ i also agree with kennas ...... ASF is a respected and good forum BECAUSE of requests such as kennas,s ... no baseless ramping that way........ easy to post in other forums .mr x said this and a broker said that but here we have to prove it :)........

cuts out a lot of the bull that happens elswhere

[sinner]

Um .i hold SBM ........ i also agree with kennas ...... ASF is a respected and good forum BECAUSE of requests such as kennas,s ... no baseless ramping that way........ easy to post in other forums .mr x said this and a broker said that but here we have to prove it :)........

cuts out a lot of the bull that happens elswhere

Would also throw my support behind kennas request! The only reason I hang about is due to high quality posting guaranteed by the mods and experienced members who will not allow innacurate or incomplete information to be posted.

[nick2fish]

You have my support as well and I hope that someone will be interested enough in the integrity of these forums to pull me up as well, if I ramp on.

I don't really give a sh**t about brokers opinion these days anyway cause the fact of the matter is that there is a lot of downward pressure on the SBM share price these days. With the gold price going up as it has, I would have thought the Sp might have touched 0.40c. They are really going to have to pull a rabbit out of their hat to convince investors to hope on board again and then they have the underwriting parcel handing over there heads.
Anyway I'm holding in a reluctant kinda way...:(

Cheers

[Family_Guy]

Not sure why and i offer no info on the stock, other to say that this is one of my few remaining stocks i own as i wait for the next downturn in the market and the only one that i have purchased all the way from the bottom to where it is now....first bought at 22c and finished at 33c and i am hoping Gold will hit $1kus and this SBM for some reason decides to trade higher. I'm not sure what that reason is, i just hope. My basic chart knowledge shows 42c but i'm still not confident with my charts, so don't take that as a ramp......perhaps i'm reading it wrong, like upside down or something but none of my charts seem to end up the way they say, perhaps that happens with everyones?????

[dmagnus]

I would say that I am looking at SBM so that's not usually a good sign but yeah they appear to be relatively healthy

[sinner]

Their cost of production and debt/equity ratio are two fundamentals I don't like and can't get over.

Was a holder, out today at a small profit (would have been better leaving the capital in the bank).

[nick2fish]

Add to that share holder dilution brought on by recent capital raising and it adds up to a done deal. Well done Sinner...I wish I had your flexibilities. I just have to hope the Gold price advance continues :)

[Goldmann]

I think SBM is trying to make a break, but everytime it does - MAcquarie Group dumps another heap of it onto the market to surpress upward pressure.

wishing i bought more KCN or LGL when i bought this one.. Diggers and Drillers providing another ramp up on a dud.

in about a month - KCN up 24%, LGL up about 27%.. SBM... up about 2% at yesterdays close...

thinking i will sell again when it hits .34

[nick2fish]

Exactly... Why don't they hold of until it gets to at least 0.40c and get their money back :confused: I really don't understand investment banking at all.

Anyway the sell off will take awhile... down to 105mil from 120mil on AXA notices which are a week or more behind

What a lemon this one has turned out to be. Oh well go the gold price:rolleyes:

[nunthewiser]

What a lemon this one has turned out to be. Oh well go the gold price:rolleyes:

:D only a lemon for some m8 :D been trading this sucker up from 21 . currently holding at a nice lil profit

all about watching them channels i reckon :) hoping for another dip to 28 ish would be nice

do understand somes frustrations but theres cash to be made AND been made on this lil number, just gotta use them chart thingoes that get talked about so much on these forums

ps as far as last report goes ...... i may be wrong :) but when using a calculator to work out production and gold price and cost of extraction i think it makes a nice lil number , but im no accountant , just a ramper

have a great day

[nick2fish]

Yep...I know what you are saying but my trading days are over for the mediam term...got caught holding with too many I'm ashamed to say

(note to self "find out what a stop loss means") :rolleyes:
Cheers and good trading

[oldskool]

Does any1 know whether mcquarrie is looking to sell all of their holdings ?

and does any1 know who is buying ? ta

hig costs producer not doing so well. what happens if gold reaches $1500, $1600, will they rerate her ?

[oldblue]

Macquarie are shareholders because they got caught with an underwriting commitment at the last capital raising.
I would expect them to sell down, and eventually out, so that they can deploy their capital on some other deal.
Not really a vote against SBM, IMO.

;)

[Uncle Festivus]

I would think that Mac would only sell if they desperately needed the cash? From the last ann they have surprised on the positive this time and are cash flow positive, and better grades as well. With gold at $AU1450 the profit margin is compelling enough to remain on the register, esp if/when some of these new golden cash cows start paying dividends. Compare that with what the rest of the market is doing or returning ie negative.

There is an overhang of weak hands that has to be worked through all the way to 55c I guess?

All about timing - my entry is 22c and holding till it gets to project value at least - between 70c-90c - and I think even then it's still a discount on future potential.

Gold company rationalisation coming up soon, who knows, SBM might look good to a preditor?

[oldblue]

Well, the evidence is that Macq are still selling, despite the PoG.
I don't see SBM as being a strategic stake for them - it's an "accidental" holding. Investment banks need to keep their capital turning over unless the holding is there for strategic reasons, ie a planned takeover, restructuring etc. I don't see that that's the case here.

[cuttlefish]

The recent change notice from MQG seems to indicate that they are still selling. I tend to agree with oldblue - MQG got this stock by accident due to underwriting the poorly subscribed capital raising - and may just continue to offload their stock into the demand that arises.

But in relation to the latest quarterly - what a great result - the Gwalia project is looking really good and past a lot of the big risk stages - they're cranking out an enormous amount of gold as a company overall. I've tended to steer clear in the past because of their very high cash costs making them vulnerable to price falls - but with an AUD $1400+ gold price they should be raking in the money now - great leverage to any further price rises. For me the strong gold price and the succesful gwalia deeps commissioning has really improved their story dramatically, and the MQG overhang will possibly present good buying opportunities.

[oldskool]

technical looking ok. ???!!!??? new to charts but Kagi charts seem to be ok so taken a bite in the hope febreuRY and march bring some sun.

[daveskis]

As at todays announcement it seems as though Macquarie has dumped about 38m shares onto the market holding down any break it tries to make.

does anyone know (or has Macquarie stated) how many shares they are going to sell?

[oldblue]

As at todays announcement it seems as though Macquarie has dumped about 38m shares onto the market holding down any break it tries to make.

does anyone know (or has Macquarie stated) how many shares they are going to sell?

Don't expect anyone, especially Macquarie, to tell the market that they are a seller, until they have a deal lined up.

[noirua]

Don't expect anyone, especially Macquarie, to tell the market that they are a seller, until they have a deal lined up.
A near 10% rise in the share price this morning does seem to bear out what you say, that Macquarie would have a buyer for any stock, and thus this would be a bullish point not bearish.

[Uncle Festivus]

Macquarie bobble heads getting desperate ie they do need the money apparently?

The interesting thing with this is that the share price is not reflecting the underlying fundamentals so when that artificial capping is removed the true level will be attained - my calcs at the barest minimum at least double the current sp?

Only 91,439,506 shares left to sell, still holding 7%!

[sinner]

I think the problem with SBM (and most ASX gold sector players), is that too many people rode them the whole way down.

They saw the rises in gold, jumped in on the miners, which just kept dropping.

Now these shares face selling pressure on good and bad days. On bad days they mark the falls in gold, on good days people flood out to break even.

Some of these are lucky now to have weeded out all those players and have good fresh demand.

Unfortunately, my opinion for SBM is that Macquarie wouldn't be involved in this if fundamental market demand would have existed (as it did for a bunch of miners so far, e.g NCM) for the new shares during the capital raising.

It didn't then, so is this a gamble that it will later? What about the people that bought at or near $1 a year ago and just want out?

[Uncle Festivus]

That's true sinner, but at the time of the raising they were still untested with the Gwalia production, but have since come through, both on improved grades and cash flow ie it's an improved company from even 7 months ago?

There's always going to be a headwind all the way back to the previous high, although looking at todays figures there is true demand side action going on, despite the obvious selling from big mac -

Closed @ 35c, up 11%, volume = 24,931,116

Nice set of figures in any language?

[noirua]

That's true sinner, but at the time of the raising they were still untested with the Gwalia production, but have since come through, both on improved grades and cash flow ie it's an improved company from even 7 months ago?

There's always going to be a headwind all the way back to the previous high, although looking at todays figures there is true demand side action going on, despite the obvious selling from big mac -

Closed @ 35c, up 11%, volume = 24,931,116

Nice set of figures in any language?

An even better set today, up 4 cents to 39 cents this morning. The continued high gold price and everything going well at Gwalia Deeps has calmed the risk worries. May have further to go in the recent recovery story.

[kenny]

With the high volumes going through today, Macquarie would have had a chance to exit out of their "non-core" position I suspect. Once this overhang is removed; things could get interesting.

Cheers,

Kenny

[cookiedude]

Wow. What a day! Is it just me or is the volume traded today sitting currently at 98,000,000+..............

[explod]

Wow. What a day! Is it just me or is the volume traded today sitting currently at 98,000,000+..............

Yep 60 mil dumped in off market trade around 3pm will be last of the Mack, blue skies now to fill that old 20 cent gap.

Latest production looking good too, bit more on the gold price for smiles all round.

[Uncle Festivus]

Wow. What a day! Is it just me or is the volume traded today sitting currently at 98,000,000+..............

Yes, that's what I have too - Mac had about 91m left, getting out for even at 40c, could be the exit we've been waiting for? So, someone has just bought 91m @ 40c for $36m - a big vote of confidence?

[nunthewiser]

03:08:15 PM 0.390 63,638,406

yes i think maquarie found a buyer . i hold as stated a while back on this thread:), i did do a post earlier but it had no analytical value and was just skiting so it was removed :D

[kennas]

Yep 50 mil dumped in off market trade around 3pm will be last of the Mack, blue skies now to fill that old 20 cent gap.

Latest production looking good too, bit more on the gold price for smiles all round.I'm not sure how to read the technicals here. Does the gap up have to be filled? I just see resistance between the previous high and the gap down between 37 and 42 ish.

I haven't checked production outlook. How's the cash costs looking? That was always my worry.

Had a very nice run up like a few other goldies making 100% plus returns since the bottom.

[explod]

I'm not sure how to read the technicals here. Does the gap up have to be filled? I just see resistance between the previous high and the gap down between 37 and 42 ish.

I haven't checked production outlook. How's the cash costs looking? That was always my worry.

Had a very nice run up like a few other goldies making 100% plus returns since the bottom.

I am presuming my take on fundamentals in this case. Back in June/july 08 shares were at 56cents when capital raising was announced for share issue at 40cents.(nuff said) Nerves with the gold price movements combined for this fundamental gap to occur. Recent production reports, healthy ballance sheet now and no hedging make this a good postion for holders now,,,, IMVHO,, of course.

[explod]

And we have a trading halt,

so we will soon find out. Lassater's reef maybee(spelling?)

IMVHO

[YELNATS]

Notice has just gone to pre-open with no announcement posted yet. Could it be an ASX speeding ticket?

[explod]

Notice has just gone to pre-open with no announcement posted yet. Could it be an ASX speeding ticket?

Doubt that, think ASX would be onto reasoning as enumerated above. More inclined to think Macquarie variation to substantial holder status or other to that effect.

But I hope it is the big reef

[cookiedude]

ASX price query.... Regardless should be in for some interesting times in the next few weeks / days.

[lsj84]

I've been waiting for this moment for ages, but when it has come I've rather become jittered. But i believe the gold price is to go up in trend if not to erupt, so this does provide fundamentals to the company.

What's your guys target price for selling SBM? in other words, what would the share price be should the spot physical gold went up to $3000AUD/ounce?

[N1Spec]

I've been waiting for this moment for ages, but when it has come I've rather become jittered. But i believe the gold price is to go up in trend if not to erupt, so this does provide fundamentals to the company.

What's your guys target price for selling SBM? in other words, what would the share price be should the spot physical gold went up to $3000AUD/ounce?

lol thats a loaded question.
SBM on reserves alone is worth alot more then current SP.
Current SP has operational risk factored into it which after the last quartely has subsided some what (the risk that is).

If POG is $3000AUD an ounce and SBM gets re-rated, well you do the maths. I would say it will be easily north of $1.00, DYOR.

[Uncle Festivus]

I've been waiting for this moment for ages, but when it has come I've rather become jittered. But i believe the gold price is to go up in trend if not to erupt, so this does provide fundamentals to the company.

What's your guys target price for selling SBM? in other words, what would the share price be should the spot physical gold went up to $3000AUD/ounce?


The securities of St Barbara Limited (the “Company”) will be placed in pre-open at the
request of the Company, pending response to an ASX Price Query by the Company.
Unless ASX decides otherwise, the securities will remain in pre-open until the earlier of
the commencement of normal trading on Monday, 16 February 2009 or when the
response is released to the market. Ha ha, wishful thinking, but the sums look good, and we can dream -

3000-800 = $2200 per oz 'profit'
Production per year = 250000oz
=2200 X 250000 = $550M PER YEAR! 50c per share!

Who knows what the market would value them at with this scenario, but I would think it would be several tens of multiples of the current sp? The other hypothetical is if they do actually achieve the stated 1Moz target, either through internal exploration or aquisitions ie BDG. The sums become truly astronomical then - $2.2B!!

[Family_Guy]

Well, reading the above few comments i may have done myself some more profit, but i closed out my holding of just over 100,000 at 40c, for which i'm very happy considering what i got them for. Might not look at this one for a while the way you guys sound so confident. I hate when i sell something and it runs.

[sinner]

I hate when i sell something and it runs.

So far on the gold front I am 2 for 2 on this. Gave up IGR at 0.13 (0.21 now) and SBM at 0.31 (0.4 now).

Despite todays price action I'm ok with my decision. I got out of this one due to fundamentals which don't mesh with my rules, and luckily the capital was added to another holding which has performed even better than SBM did today! Will let you all try and guess what...

POG doesn't even need to drop to October lows for SBM to be underwater in terms of cost of production and the market will punish them heavily. I am bullish on gold, but not that bullish (yet).

Anyway, I will probably check back on this thread now and then but less without "holders anxiety". Good luck to all those who are long!

[Uncle Festivus]

POG doesn't even need to drop to October lows for SBM to be underwater in terms of cost of production and the market will punish them heavily. I am bullish on gold, but not that bullish (yet).



What do you have for their cost of production??

[kbxk508]

In Sep08 Qtr report, company stated the following

Capital and exploration expenditure for the year is fully funded from cash flow from operations, assuming a gold price of A$975 (US$772) per ounce and current cash reserves.

Current 24hr spot Gold in A$1432 and as low as $910 (approx.) in last 6/12 mths.

SBM Cash Costs (Dec Qtr): Southern Cross: A$777, Leonora: $819 (combined total A$794),

kbxk508

[Uncle Festivus]

Some people like the fundamentals? A Buzz Lightyear stock?




The Company has been advised by Macquarie Capital Advisers Limited via
telephone that it sold approximately 72 million Company shares on Friday, 13
February 2008. The Company understands that these shares have been bought
by a number of institutional investors.


Following on-site visits to the Company’s operations by a number of
investment analysts and investors during the week ended 13 February 2009,
the Company understands that there have been updated reports and advice
provided to clients of their respective firms.


The Company is satisfied that there was no information (of the type
contemplated in ASX listing rule 3.1) provided to the participants in these site
visits that has not been previously disclosed to the market.
In addition, the Company notes that it is considering a number of potential
strategies in relation to the Convertible Notes issued by the Company in 2007
which have a present face value of $99,600,000

[noirua]

In Sep08 Qtr report, company stated the following


Current 24hr spot Gold in A$1432 and as low as $910 (approx.) in last 6/12 mths.

SBM Cash Costs (Dec Qtr): Southern Cross: A$777, Leonora: $819 (combined total A$794),

kbxk508
Forecast costs for gold produced in the second half year is at AU$750 per troy ounce, down from AU$815.

[sinner]

Sorry guys, please forgiveness! I mistakenly assumed cost was in USD. Now I will have to re-analyse my position and decide if I want back in, thanks a lot :p:

[cookiedude]

Wonder who the institutional investors are? Anyway I sold half of my holdings today at 0.41 (for a reasonable profit) and will be holding on to the rest for now...

[eddyeagle]

SBM is flying now the Macquarie Brakes are off!
FAt Prophets put out a 'buy on a pullback' on it yesterday which is a good sign.
It's come a long way from the dark days of < 20 cents!

[noirua]

Took quite a hit on my SBM holding as I bought back in at 40.5 cents and thought what a great move at the time. Relief now as the dodgy World economy continues to decline and hopeful of more to come on this one.

[cookiedude]

St Barbara Limited announces it has requested the ASX to halt trading in its shares so it can undertake a private placement of shares to sophisticated investors to raise between A$70 and A$75 million after expenses.

[nunthewiser]

No mention of at what price this placement is at or am i missing something here ?......................

[VViCKiD]

just when it starts to recover we have a share placement ... :mad:
they should 've learn their lesson from the last one...

[Uncle Festivus]

The placement price will be determined by a book build being conducted
Cross Equities on a non-underwritten basis. These things have a habit, we won't call it insider trading will we, where the preceding share price action gives a clue to what is coming. Just as the 40c issue was preceded by the sp tanking, this time it's well supported to the current 46c. I would guess that all this was known to the 'sophisticated investors' about the time the share price took off around the 30c mark?

Book building as we type no doubt, and they would have been sounding out the figure of $70M as achievable, and judging by recent raisings for goldies eg NCM it should be well supported? Have to wait till monday. Anyone have a match price?

Also interesting is that they have written down their holding in BDG just as it's sp get's a rocket under it.

[cookiedude]

Personally I wouldn't mind knowing who or what this 'sophisticated investor' is / are... Definitely intriguing choice of words.

[Goldmann]

just when it starts to recover we have a share placement ... :mad:
they should 've learn their lesson from the last one...

Could agree with you more and as Meatloaf said: you took the words right outta my mouth...

I spose they figure they will need money soon... better get it now while gold is heading up - even if it brings some short term SP pain... just wish i sold out the other day, and then could buy back in later.

[kennas]

Personally I wouldn't mind knowing who or what this 'sophisticated investor' is / are... Definitely intriguing choice of words.This term is used all the time to indicate it's not open to the public and not just an institutional raising through banks. They'll be going through brokers to offer parcels to clients who will take a decent chunk. The sophisticated ones.

[Uncle Festivus]

Could agree with you more and as Meatloaf said: you took the words right outta my mouth...

I spose they figure they will need money soon... better get it now while gold is heading up - even if it brings some short term SP pain... just wish i sold out the other day, and then could buy back in later.

It's to retire the convertible note 'debt', as per ann -


A buy-back of the convertible notes will reduce the refinancing risk associated with the potential redemption of some or all of the notes in June 2010 and reduces financing costs.
The placement price will be determined by a book build being conducted
by Southern Cross Equities on a non-underwritten basis.


SBM - Deutsche Bank rates the stock as Buy

BY BROKER NEWS - 17/02/2009

Risks remain but the analysts nevertheless believe time has come to upgrade this stock to Buy. They recently returned from a visit to the Gwalia Deeps operation and are now even more confident the operational risk profile is becoming "more normal".
Longer term, there is the issue of redemptions by holders of the convertible notes, but that's not due until June 2010 and the analysts believe that on current projections the company should have just enough cash in the kitty to stay out of troubles if all holders would decide to redeem. Target price lifted to $0.55 from $0.37 prior. Sector: Materials.
Target price is $0.55.Current Price is $0.39. Difference: $0.16 - (brackets indicate current price is over target). If SBM meets the Deutsche Bank target it will return approximately 29% (excluding dividends, fees and charges - negative figures indicate an expected loss).

[peter g]

Not as bad an outcome as i was expecting.

The placement was a 41 cents. only a 10% discount.

The momentum of SBM is very promising.

[Goldmann]

and as expected SBM drops 10% in the first hour.

even gold bounding up towards $1000 wont stop this one sitting here now until March 3rd when the shares are eligible for trading.

[cookiedude]

Decided to get out completely today (0.425) – might buy back in at a later stage. Good luck to those who are still holding.

[nunthewiser]

Has removed ALL original capital in SBM . free holding now ALL that remains .can do as it pleases.....

[cookiedude]

Looks like some profit taking happening overnight: POG down today & respectively SBM down also – Anyone tempted to buy in at these levels?

[peter g]

Can someone please explain the activity and 12.5% increase on SBM today. I dont understand the announcement?

[cookiedude]

Can someone please explain the activity and 12.5% increase on SBM today. I dont understand the announcement?

Doubt it has anything to do with the announcement?

POG rose sharply overnight USD60 or so to approximately USD950:

Silver and gold prices have a best friend, and it's Big Ben Bernanke. Yesterday the gold price had broken down, and was headed lower, but Ben engineered one of the last decade's most dramatic turnarounds. The gold price leapt nearly 60 bucks, silver 100 cents. Today's figures take yesterday's low closes into account, with the gold price up $69.60 to $958.30 and the silver price up to $13.60, up $1.55.

The upshot was the first half of a key reversal (break to a new low for the move with a higher close), confirmed today by higher closes. The gold price is headed for another shot at $1,000, and may pierce this time. The silver price needs to climb over this $13.50 mark, done today. Next barrier is $14.50..