SBM - St. Barbara Mines

[Uncle Festivus]

I've been trying to get my head around the Gwalia Deeps project and how a 2km decline to get to 3m oz au is worthwhile. At that depth wouldn't the gold actually be in the European continent?

Kennas,
That's a bit silly isn't it: as we all know, this would come out somewhere in China. You know, trees being sucked into the ground and all.

[kennas]

Kennas,
That's a bit silly isn't it: as we all know, this would come out somewhere in China. You know, trees being sucked into the ground and all.Yes, a bit silly due to a lack of research. :o I've just checked the globe, and it would actually be somewhere in Brazil! :)

Their strategic stake in BDG is still a mystery. Perhaps they're waiting for further exploration results before putting a complete bid in. ??

[Uncle Festivus]

Kennas,
I don't think Ed & the gang do anything without a very good reason, & I think BDG has been under-rated since the debacle. I'm counting on a few good ann's indicating a return to more robust gold estimates eg back into the mega ounce area. SBM appear to have very close relationship with JP Morgan too, so finance shouldn't be problem. It also fits in with their statements to pursue acquisitions.

[noirua]

I notice that "International Royalties Corporation" show that 1.5% NS Royalties are due on Gwalia Deeps and Southern Cross.

I'm sure SBM Directors are well aware of all the cost factors in developing Gwalia Deeps and the great depth has been well known right back to the announcement of a 5.4 million tonne inferred resource at 6.9g/t gold during the S.O.G. days in 2,000.

The risk factors in developing Gwalia Deep are high and appears to be the main reason for the shares shadowing the 50 cent level.

[geminidreams]

The billion in scrip (including convertible notes), with more potential raising on the way would be a bit of an anchor on the price.

[Deadcat]

Have been keeping an eye on this stock but have been out for a while. Went to Kalgoorlie to see the superpit the other week and took a drive out to Gwalia. Very eerie ghost town of a place. Was hoping SBM would make it apparent their intentions for BDG. Will sit on sidelines and see what happens.

[BlingBling]

Bit of activity on this one yesterday. up 3.5c to .535c.
at .545c as we speak. Might we be expecting some info soon on this?

[sam76]

Resource upgrade is due before the end of this month. Hopefully that has something to do with it.

SBM has been fairly boring over the last 6 months.

[BlingBling]

Resource upgrade is due before the end of this month. Hopefully that has something to do with it.

SBM has been fairly boring over the last 6 months.

Good & Yep bloody boring! Time for some upward motion!
Hopefully we get some good news with the upgrade.

[chicken]

Resource upgrade is due before the end of this month. Hopefully that has something to do with it.

SBM has been fairly boring over the last 6 months.

Check out yesterdays and todays announcements....annyone who wishes to invest money should study what was said...read the Ni news in the Sullivans...their doubling of Gold reserves and I still hold as the bigger picture is starting to take place...looks as if Ed realised their base metals..NI,CU,ZN will play a bigger picture in the future...and their Sullivan has a big potential which is realised by the company now....check it out as SBM are now the 3rd largest gold producer in Australia....I still hold as I am still convinced that SBM is great value.....and where will SBM share price go to when Gold starts moving up as hinted by advisers...:banghead:

[56gsa]

chicken - have certainly admired your persistence on this over the years - and weekly chart looks like its going to be resolved within 4-6 weeks... things are coming to a point- i love the bottom support that goes 2 years back...

which way is it going to go? a drop into the mid 40s could be a problem - but a breakout above 60 would look very positive... if you think this is heading upwards (and gold is tonight) then could be the last time you'll get this in the low 50s for a while?

any other chart readings?

[chicken]

Great chart....train at the station...picking up steam...just about ready to roll...Gold up what more can I say.....:banghead:

[Uncle Festivus]

Director buying up big! Something about to happen? Hitting 55c today

Mr Wise has a beneficial interest in the purchaser of the shares, Colin Wise
Consulting Pty Ltd Superannuation Fund

Date of change 18 July 2007
No. of securities held prior to change 3,799,403
Class Fully paid ordinary shares
Number acquired 400,000
Number disposed Nil
Value/Consideration $211,840.00
No. of securities held after change 4,199,403
Nature of change On-market trade.

[chicken]

All I can say KEEP AN EYE ON THIS STOCK....BDG is being accumulated big time and SBM has a lot of good irons in the fire....I still hold 200k shares and just feel with GOLD going up SBMs Share price could go for a nice run....see all their latest announcements and when directors are buying..which they did it pays to keep it on the radar screen...:banghead:

[BlingBling]

Chicken, I'm got in at a nice discount to .50 around 6-8 weeks ago. Looking forward to some upward movement. Hopefully St Barbara will be able to push through .65 and run from there.

[Miner]

Just randomly tonight the St Barbara stories in this column got my eyes.
I noticed Chicken boosted that he or she will come back (wrote in 2005?) when St Barbara Mines shares will come back to $1.50. I could see same Chicken is still bullish about St Barbara. Good perseverence. It does pay. Ironically excepting the administrator and some regulars probably do not look back the historical statements and who said what.
So Chicken what you did when the desired price of SBM did not reach on your target ?

Ironically I have worked in SGW (Sons of Gwalia) Leonora Mines in until 94 when it was running about $25. That is a past. The ore body was depleting and they went underground. The down fall started from there.
Some fundamentals need to be attached with all technicals. Because technicals are great but they are only predictive devices (i am ready to get thongs thrown at me by techies) but it failed to predict 87 crash. If twenty years is a good time to be repeated I am sure some techies will tell us about that. THe prediction about SBM probably need to be taken with more research and geological data alongwith charting.

Good luck for investing and sorry as I did not give much information this time excepting making some observations.

Regards

Miner:banghead:

[ta2693]

The director purchased it through Consulting Pty Ltd Superannuation Fund.
it is considered to be longterm investment. Can not use as a reason to expect short term breakout or good news approaching.

According to the presentation made on 18/07, the expected production is 60,000oz at the production cost around $600/oz. it is not really exciting.

[kennas]

All I can say KEEP AN EYE ON THIS STOCK....BDG is being accumulated big time ..:banghead:Chicken, can you please expand on this little gem for us please? Being accumulated by who and when and what the? Cheers, K :)

[56gsa]

Continues to rise... looks to be heading towards the 63-64 resistance... good depth on buy side and all indicators heading in the right directions.

[kennas]

Fat Profits put a buy on it last night at around 58 I think. Usually when they put a buy on something it goes ok the next day. Wall of fire to get through at 65, and if it does, I'll be there to pounce. If POG breaks 690 solidly, that might be the trigger. :2twocents

[BlingBling]

Fat profits have put a buy on this 3 times and each time it really didn't do much at all. Last night was a buy @ .59.
Hopefully it can push through that .65 barrier.

[56gsa]

Failed again spectacularly at 60... what is it with this stock? Someone put through 105m @ 51cents ??? what the .. is that?

[kennas]

Someone has managed to dump their stock here. Huge X trades...

Traded 110m so far..

Any guesses?

[56gsa]

heres the answer....

A broad range of Australian and international institutions
comprising existing and new shareholders have acquired an
aggregate 12.6% interest in the Company overnight.
The shares were sold by the Resource Capital Funds. One of the
Funds remains as the Company’s largest shareholder with a
9.3% interest, which it has undertaken to place in escrow for six
months.
The transaction was priced at 51c per share which represents a
small discount of 3.4% to the volume weighted average price for
the last thirty days.
Resource Capital Funds are amongst a number of long standing
shareholders that have supported the Company in its
rejuvenation and growth.
The Company welcomes the new shareholders onto its share
register as it continues to expand and develop long term
Australian gold operations.

[kennas]

heres the answer....

A broad range of Australian and international institutions
comprising existing and new shareholders have acquired an
aggregate 12.6% interest in the Company overnight..Yes, I take back my dump the stock comment. Is this good or bad that a fund has sold their stake?

[noirua]

heres the answer....

A broad range of Australian and international institutions
comprising existing and new shareholders have acquired an
aggregate 12.6% interest in the Company overnight.
The shares were sold by the Resource Capital Funds. One of the
Funds remains as the Company’s largest shareholder with a
9.3% interest, which it has undertaken to place in escrow for six
months.
The transaction was priced at 51c per share which represents a
small discount of 3.4% to the volume weighted average price for
the last thirty days.
Resource Capital Funds are amongst a number of long standing
shareholders that have supported the Company in its
rejuvenation and growth.
The Company welcomes the new shareholders onto its share
register as it continues to expand and develop long term
Australian gold operations.

It's not surprising that Resource Capital Funds have sold part of their holding. Their main aim is to lend money to resource companies in trouble for exchange of shares and options. SBM are no longer a high risk capital venture and there may be better rewards elsewhere.

[Uncle Festivus]

It's not surprising that Resource Capital Funds have sold part of their holding. Their main aim is to lend money to resource companies in trouble for exchange of shares and options. SBM are no longer a high risk capital venture and there may be better rewards elsewhere.

Yes, not likely to be a problem, they just picked the wrong day to make the announcement I think eg gold down $10 and market tanking. RCF have made a mint out of SBM, through the 'bad' times, so taking some profits of the table I assume.

[Flying Fish]

Does the increase in australian dollar affect this one? I an sure it does, no one has bargained for an aussie dollar equaling or bettering the US buck good luck people.

[noirua]

Does the increase in australian dollar affect this one? I an sure it does, no one has bargained for an aussie dollar equaling or bettering the US buck good luck people.

About 4 years ago the Aussie Dollar was mentioned as a basket case as it headed for A$2 to the US$.
Now it's the US$ that is the basket case as it heads for US$1 to the A$.

Sometime, who knows when, the Aussie Dollar will reverse as the Greenback recovers.

Meanwhile SBM are interesting at 53 cents.

[Ken]

I can confirm that CBUS super fund picked up 80,000 shares at 57 cents.

They have a good track record and they rarely buy speculative stocks.

Last speculative stock they bought was MAE are 70 cents.

I dont hold.

[Ken]

CBUS picked up another 300,00 shares at 51 cents.

I now hold, in at 49.5 cents today.

Hopefully buying somewhere near bottom.

The director also picked up 400k worth of stock.

Any thoughts on prospects?

This is my only producing gold stock.

[chicken]

Check diggers and dealers presentation...one with great upside potential...also check what is said about their Ni drilling....if everyone goes and falls into place we will see a rerating of SBM....:banghead:

[The Barbarian Investor]

Aren't they also gearing up for big things at Leonora (though I thought that was happening Feb 07) :confused:

[chicken]

Aren't they also gearing up for big things at Leonora (though I thought that was happening Feb 07) :confused:

Read what was said..re your statement....2/3 of the tenament is virgin ground and Ed said drilling will start in places at Leonara....and more gold could be found....see Diggers and dealers report....:banghead:

[noirua]

SBM have finished all their fund raising well before this credit crunch period arrived. Whether it is gold or any other commodity, there are problems if development has to be put on hold due to lack of cash. SBM should be advantaged by this storm and may give an opportunity to get in at a low price, as all stocks may be hit today.

[Ken]

If we look at SBM over the last 12 months, it has basically been traded in a range of 48 cents to 60 cents for the majority.

What we take from this?

Well I think its fair to say SBM are the real deal.

The stock is obviously held by a number of institutions which has been well documented.

I think this is a good a junior gold miner there is on the market.

There is a plan in place, and if objectives are achieved shareholder's will be returned.

Is now the right time to be buying?? I'd say it depends on your tolerance for risk.

Will SBM be 50 cents in 3 month time? You'd think so.

There is only so long a stock can trade in a certain range before it breaks out one way or the other.

I think a lot of the big losses we are seeing on the market are from forced selling, and a lot of investors are now sitting on the side lines waiting for the volatility to stop.

As a long term investor SBM looks a good opportunity.

[chicken]

If we look at SBM over the last 12 months, it has basically been traded in a range of 48 cents to 60 cents for the majority.

What we take from this?

Well I think its fair to say SBM are the real deal.

The stock is obviously held by a number of institutions which has been well documented.

I think this is a good a junior gold miner there is on the market.

There is a plan in place, and if objectives are achieved shareholder's will be returned.

Is now the right time to be buying?? I'd say it depends on your tolerance for risk.

Will SBM be 50 cents in 3 month time? You'd think so.

There is only so long a stock can trade in a certain range before it breaks out one way or the other.

I think a lot of the big losses we are seeing on the market are from forced selling, and a lot of investors are now sitting on the side lines waiting for the volatility to stop.

As a long term investor SBM looks a good opportunity.
Notice...very little downside....just 2 cents in this correction..or whatever you call it...and looks more of an upside here...more institution now broad overseas exposure...see what was said at diggers and dealers...I still hold and SBM shareholding in BDG might also come into fruition...ED and other directors bought more shares and with Gold on the upside...we may see a rerating of this company....after all what did Mr...or DR.DOOM say Gold $1000+........I still like SBM as they are producers and ramping their gold production up...and they are also talking about Ni in their presentation...DYOR:2twocents

[noirua]

The price of St Barbara tanked to 40 cents and this appears a very low price with the increase in the gold price in Aussie Dollar terms. Still have to get Gwalia Deeps up and running though. Time to be brave, imho, and look more closely at the prospects here.

[noirua]

Despite wobbly markets, SBM look to be set fair for the future with its Australian Mines. The Aussie Dollar, IMHO, is set to move back towards $1.35 to the Greenback and Gold is set also, IMHO, to continue its sideways trend.

Not expecting great things from SBM in the short term as Gwalia Deeps is not yet developed and it is quite a big hurdle to overcome.

[sam76]

Despite wobbly markets, SBM look to be set fair for the future with its Australian Mines. The Aussie Dollar, IMHO, is set to move back towards $1.35 to the Greenback and Gold is set also, IMHO, to continue its sideways trend.

Not expecting great things from SBM in the short term as Gwalia Deeps is not yet developed and it is quite a big hurdle to overcome.

Noirua, Are you concerned that SBM are still $50,000,000 short?

Also, do you know if they are still buying back their own shares?

There are too many unanswered questions surrounding SBM at the moment, but I agree the future looks bright.

[noirua]

Noirua, Are you concerned that SBM are still $50,000,000 short?

Also, do you know if they are still buying back their own shares?

There are too many unanswered questions surrounding SBM at the moment, but I agree the future looks bright.

Hi sam76, Its been almost a practise of SBM to start buybacks and then new plans mean they fizzle out.

I'll look at this $50 million short more closely.

[noirua]

Noirua, Are you concerned that SBM are still $50,000,000 short?

Also, do you know if they are still buying back their own shares?

There are too many unanswered questions surrounding SBM at the moment, but I agree the future looks bright.

HI again sam76, Yes, you have a very good point on expenditure with the present credit-crunch conditions.

SBM are set to spend $110 million in 2007/2008 on pre-production capital expenditure on Gwalia Deeps. They had $95 million in the bank as of June 30 and mention they are discussing new Banking facilities for further loans.

SBM made a $20.7 million loss, if asset sales are stripped away, and about $2 million loss with them.

Gwalia is being developed too plan and that includes expenditure, and SBM have sale options to cover any falls in the Gold price.

Everything looks set fair and despite the obvious risks in developing a very deep mine, there looks to be great hopes surrounding St Barbara.

[Uncle Festivus]

Party time! But only just back to where we were about 2 weeks ago. Re-rating coming up?

Newly discovered high grade mineralisation at Tower Hill,

2km from the Gwalia mill
True width intersections of 40m@6.0g/t and 30m@7.2g/t at depths of 250 300m
Potential for open pit and underground mining
Studies to look at resource development and expanding Gwalia mill

[Enoch]

Been looking at these for a while i bought a big chunk of these when the market tanked.

Got to love the following comment from the recent announcement.

"The results suggest not only an opportunity for an open pit cut back but also significant potential for underground mining. The mineralisation is open at death and both to the north and south".

[noirua]

With the gold price rising over the $700 an ounce level and a closing price the night before of 53.5c for SBM, everything looks set fair for the week ahead. Have a good weekend and look forward to Monday.

[noirua]

St Barbara are continuing their new found strength as they hit 55 cents this morning. The Tower Hill announcement, a week or so ago, was not enough to figure in this sudden recovery.

The world record for a flight by a chicken is 13 seconds.

[prawn_86]

will be interesting to see if they can break the 60c mark and hoild this time.

i wouldnt bet on it though.

my father has made a killing trading these over a shortish time period. Buy at 50c sell anywhere above 60c. makes me think that its the sort of thing i should do rather than buy and hold lol

[noirua]

SBM have reported further strong intersections at Tower Hill, Leonora and good results at Nevoria and Bronco East, at Southern Cross.

[Uncle Festivus]

St Barbara (SBM)
Goldman Sachs JB Were
Neutral recommendation
12-month price target of 56c
THE Goldman metals and mining team couldn't have been more neutral about St Barbara when it noted last week that "we see both positive and negative factors in the coming 12 months for SBM". But the team admits that, if it was to ever fall off the fence, they would probably be on the more positive side. St Barbara's key asset is the old Sons of Gwalia company-buster, Gwalia Deeps. The project, according to Goldman's forecasts, could add 200,000oz to St Barbara's production profile annually over possibly 20 years when (and if) the miner can reach the deep orebody by March. Obviously there is a big risk that St Barbara will fall behind in time and on budget given that drive development totals some 10km. So St Barbara hopes to define enough surface reserves at its Southern Cross and Leonora tenements.

[noirua]

St Barbara (SBM)
Goldman Sachs JB Were
Neutral recommendation
12-month price target of 56c
THE Goldman metals and mining team couldn't have been more neutral about St Barbara when it noted last week that "we see both positive and negative factors in the coming 12 months for SBM". But the team admits that, if it was to ever fall off the fence, they would probably be on the more positive side. St Barbara's key asset is the old Sons of Gwalia company-buster, Gwalia Deeps. The project, according to Goldman's forecasts, could add 200,000oz to St Barbara's production profile annually over possibly 20 years when (and if) the miner can reach the deep orebody by March. Obviously there is a big risk that St Barbara will fall behind in time and on budget given that drive development totals some 10km. So St Barbara hopes to define enough surface reserves at its Southern Cross and Leonora tenements.

A very good article as it shows the "company buster" comments on Gwalia Deeps. Sons of Gwalia was brought down by selling gold forward at low prices, failing to produce, and needing to buy gold at high prices to cover contracts to supply at lower prices.
A great Aussie Gold Company went bust due to seriously bad judgements by the Directors.

SBM have also sold gold on forward contracts, the prices look good at the moment but, there is risk.

[Enoch]

A very good article as it shows the "company buster" comments on Gwalia Deeps. Sons of Gwalia was brought down by selling gold forward at low prices, failing to produce, and needing to buy gold at high prices to cover contracts to supply at lower prices.
A great Aussie Gold Company went bust due to seriously bad judgements by the Directors.

SBM have also sold gold on forward contracts, the prices look good at the moment but, there is risk.

I rang the company today and was told they are under no obligation to deliver any Gold as Sons of Gwalia and Croesus were.

In addition the fact they have the resources in the reserve category should ensure they do not fall in the same traps as BMA and Bendigo.

[michael_selway]

A very good article as it shows the "company buster" comments on Gwalia Deeps. Sons of Gwalia was brought down by selling gold forward at low prices, failing to produce, and needing to buy gold at high prices to cover contracts to supply at lower prices.
A great Aussie Gold Company went bust due to seriously bad judgements by the Directors.

SBM have also sold gold on forward contracts, the prices look good at the moment but, there is risk.

Hi do you know what the mine life of SBM is?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -0.3 -1.4 4.5 8.2
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.

thx

MS

[noirua]

Hi do you know what the mine life of SBM is?
thx
MS

Hi m_s, You will find 30 minutes of a report, "Exploration Driven Growth" by Mr Peter Thompson, GM Exploration, that outlines the position of all the mines of St Barbara Ltd., - http://www.brr.com.au/event/SBM/1708/23655

[Enoch]

Hi Noirua,

Thanks for the presentation.

Informative to say the least.

They also state in the presentation and as mentioned in an earlier post that there are no contracts for delivery as was the case with SOG and CRS.

Could be good times ahead if management continue achieving what they say they will achieve.

They have done so to date.

Regards
Enoch

[noirua]

Hi Noirua,

Thanks for the presentation.

Informative to say the least.

They also state in the presentation and as mentioned in an earlier post that there are no contracts for delivery as was the case with SOG and CRS.

Could be good times ahead if management continue achieving what they say they will achieve.

They have done so to date.

Regards
Enoch

Hi Enoch, My apologies, concerning contracts for delivery. I confused the payments made to ensure minimum gold prices with contracts for delivery - cheers

[kennas]

With such a protracted consolidation between support and resistance, there'd have to be a strong possibility of this coiling wind up to produce a significant breakout. Eventually.....:rolleyes:

Watching with interest for attack on 65 cents again. And probably again....;)

[Uncle Festivus]

Attack looks to be under way Kennas, up 4c to 62c in early trade, not sure if it can keep up the momentum, but someone is sure giving it a good go. Watching the trades suggests someone has an order to fill, at any price by the looks? Substantial barrier at 62, but if it breaks well....

[chicken]

Time to get back into SBM...with gold rising SBM might go as high as 64.5 cents....its been going sideways long enough...as Gold is going for a run so should SBM...see what ED will come up with....:banghead:

[kennas]

Rapidly approaching 65 cents. Will it fail again! I hope it runs through for long termers....but this is the Great Wall of China. Will be a very significant break if it makes it. And holds above. :2twocents

[ta2693]

I feel the great wall is not very steady. and possibly be break out.
The vol is 7.586m at 3:00pm. There is still one hour left. It is very likely the vol will come to 10m. no need further good news, the momentum alone stand a good chance to push the great wall down. :rolleyes:

[Uncle Festivus]

Up 4%, vol = 11m plus, & a very keen bidder!

[tradingforwealth]

I expect big things to happen within a year with this company :)

More good news to come, ie establishing resources then reserves from Tower Hill and it lead up establishing itself as a significant gold producer.

:2twocents

[noirua]

Heading back to the 6-month high last April of 65 cents. Looking for a potential breakout in the next few weeks.

[Enoch]

Gold Price Heading Higher $760 U.S.
Not to long before we break $0.70 and beyond.

Got to love this stock.

Best of Luck all who have shares in SBM.:)

[donovan74]

Hello, I've been a small shareholder in SBM for over 4 years now and would like to know if anyone here is investing long term. I see SBM SP @ .67 is on a high but has it ever been higher ?

[michael_selway]

Hello, I've been a small shareholder in SBM for over 4 years now and would like to know if anyone here is investing long term. I see SBM SP @ .67 is on a high but has it ever been higher ?

It onyl has 9 year minfe life

http://www.stbarbara.com.au/upfile/070921NthAmericanPrez.pdf (page 20)

Is this correct?

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -0.3 -1.1 5.3 9.1
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

[juw177]

I bought in. Broke 70c today with a very strong close. Pretty much bluesky territory now with the rising gold prices lately. What's install for SBM?

[mick2006]

Look out for upcoming drill assays from the Goldern Mile South JV (SBM 70%) (MWE 30%), the tennements are only 4km from the massive Kalgoorlie Super Pit (reserves 75 million oz's), if they hit anything the nearology factor could certainly kick in.

I hold MWE to gain exposure to the possible upside, the results should be out in around 2 weeks.

[noirua]

TRADING HALT: St Barbara Limited has been placed in pre-open in accordance to an ASX announcement this morning - http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071024/pdf/3159lybfdwxf1h.pdf

[explod]

Look out for upcoming drill assays from the Goldern Mile South JV (SBM 70%) (MWE 30%), the tennements are only 4km from the massive Kalgoorlie Super Pit (reserves 75 million oz's), if they hit anything the nearology factor could certainly kick in.

I hold MWE to gain exposure to the possible upside, the results should be out in around 2 weeks.

No announcement from MWE, must be other than the Golden Mile JV.

Boy what a makeover since the turbulant management days of 5cents, a mere three years ago. I have great faith in this mob but who knows, I have been wrong before.

[BlingBling]

In a halt for 2 days while raising another $100m.
Obviously they need it for the Gwalia deeps......
Not holding now, only got out recently, but I had my concerns that they would need more $$$$$.

[tradingforwealth]

In a halt for 2 days while raising another $100m.
Obviously they need it for the Gwalia deeps......
Not holding now, only got out recently, but I had my concerns that they would need more $$$$$.


No they need for their new mine Tower Hill. They are making money. They want more money so they can speed up production especially from their new discovery from Tower Hill to go inline with their goal production forecast by 2010.

They have in my mind been doing what they say they are going to do and achieving for the last two years since I have been following this company.
:2twocents

[BlingBling]

It will be interesting to see at what price they raise this $100m.
If it's too low could hold back the SP for a while again, which would give me a chance to get back in. Any guesses? I think they'll have to make it attractive, maybe around .60c or a little lower?

[michael_selway]

It will be interesting to see at what price they raise this $100m.
If it's too low could hold back the SP for a while again, which would give me a chance to get back in. Any guesses? I think they'll have to make it attractive, maybe around .60c or a little lower?

Hm it only has a 10 yr mine life?


These achievements indicate that St Barbara is
progressing towards its previously stated goals
of producing at an annualised rate of 450,000
ounces of gold by the December Quarter 2008
and production of 1 million ounces of gold
annually by 2010, underpinned by 10 million
ounces of reserves.

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -0.3 -0.3 7.1 12.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

[tradingforwealth]

Hm it only has a 10 yr mine life?



Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -0.3 -0.3 7.1 12.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

I seem to see all your posts wanting to find out about mine life of most companies in most posts I see. Most commodity companies only calculate resources/reserves up to a certain depth also, so there maybe more gold deeper. Anyway you should be so concerned about this. Companies constantly evolve and expand and explore, acquit companies.

Because SBM wants to get the gold out of the ground faster, the shorter the mine life. I mean 10yrs is a long time (are you going to hold it for that long anyway). Like most companies they constantly explore like BHP OXR etc.

Chill :cool:

[Uncle Festivus]

The thing I like about SBM since the present management took over is the aggressive nature with which they tackle things eg, the purchase of SGW's best assets for a song. The interesting words in the equity raising presentation for the allocation of funds raised were 'bolt-on' acquisitions. These blokes have an agenda to be big players in gold, so expect an announcement about a merger or takover, if they don't get taken over themselves?

[Flying Fish]

The thing I like about SBM since the present management took over is the aggressive nature with which they tackle things eg, the purchase of SGW's best assets for a song. The interesting words in the equity raising presentation for the allocation of funds raised were 'bolt-on' acquisitions. These blokes have an agenda to be big players in gold, so expect an announcement about a merger or takover, if they don't get taken over themselves?

I am looking at the start of the trhead.It has been a very long one, its seems SWBM was about 10 cents when chicken posted Who is chicken?

[Fleeta]

I am looking at the start of the trhead.It has been a very long one, its seems SWBM was about 10 cents when chicken posted Who is chicken?

Chicken was a very passionate man! I think he left over difference of opinion with some members. He also tipped us ZFX at $3 as well as SBM at 10c. Personally, I bought SBM at 13c, so very happy - been stalled a fair bit of late, but I think the capital raising should propel them where they are. With the current movements in the gold price, this share 'appears' to be undervalued in the 60-70c range.

[donovan74]

Fleeta, I've also been holding SBM for a while (4 years now). Have you got got a target for SBM, where your're happy taking the profits.

[kennas]

Rapidly approaching 65 cents. Will it fail again! I hope it runs through for long termers....but this is the Great Wall of China. Will be a very significant break if it makes it. And holds above. :2twocentsObviously broke through and then found resistance at all time high, as you would expect. Sort of tested 65 support and maybe moving on.

[noirua]

The easy way for SBM to raise funds is to sell off an interest in Gwalia Deeps. However, negotiating a value for the prospective mine could be more difficult than it seems.

[noirua]

Well, SBM have gone for a placement of shares at 63 cents, to raise a net $73.4 million, to the Institutions:

http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20071026/pdf/315ctncmy9w79t.pdf

There is also a share purchase plan for shareholders. Maximum $5,000 at 63 cents a share.

[noirua]

The share purchase plan, $5,000 at 63 cents a share, is looking good as St Barbara power on to 73.5 cents.
Institutional confidence in taking up the placing and the gold price near US$800, is worth a :) or :):)

[donovan74]

Noirua,you saying SBM might be worth $1 - $2 ? (hope you're right). I see things looking far more brighter for us now.

:)

[sam76]

Chicken's not that far of his prediction of $1.

It's only his timing that needs work. :D (from memory he's out by about 16 months)

[kennas]

Noirua,you saying SBM might be worth $1 - $2 ? (hope you're right). I see things looking far more brighter for us now.

:)I don't think he's saying that at all. How do you come to that conclusion? :confused:


Chicken's not that far of his prediction of $1.

It's only his timing that needs work. :D (from memory he's out by about 16 months)

And $1.00 is still a fair way off. I haven't seen any analysis or justification from anyone for this going anywhere, except that it might keep going up if POG keeps going up, and the market doesn't fall over. Of course.

[tradingforwealth]

Seems like the directors are willing to shell out their money to buy shares in SBM in between 70-73c, most recently Colin Wise at 72.67c.

Good Sign :cool:

[michael_selway]

Seems like the directors are willing to shell out their money to buy shares in SBM in between 70-73c, most recently Colin Wise at 72.67c.

Good Sign :cool:

Good signs

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -0.3 -0.8 6.0 11.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

[Flying Fish]

Great move today. Wonder why? Is it becoming a takeover target from perhaps newcrest. Any other reasons, or is it that POG is about to jump again. I would rreally like some feed back on this one thanks guys. It looks good

[The Mint Man]

I think you will find this is the reason why Flying Fish, and as I said in the BDG thread, With POG and the run up to christmas this couldn't come at a better time.:D

Bendigo Mining
Limited
ASX Release 15 November 2007

Spectacular assays from high grade
Gill Reef
The final assays have been received for the Gill reef from drilling completed on
three sections over a strike of 460 metres. Gill reef is one of five reefs
discovered on the Garden Gully line, close to current mine development. Best
assays include:
•0.9 metres at 4070 g/t gold
•6.2 metres at 57 g/t gold
•6.2 metres at 5.1 g/t gold
•1.3 metres at 55 g/t gold
Rod Hanson, Managing Director & CEO comment: “These exceptional assays
reinforce our high-grade visual estimate of Gill reef, with potential for some
bonanza zones with multi-ounce per tonne potential.
“Prior to these final assays we considered the reef to be around 10 g/t gold
(+/- 2 g/t). However, the calibre of these results indicate Gill to be at least a
10 – 15 g/t gold reef.
“I’m confident about the quality of Gill, however we need to take a
conservative step-by-step approach. We plan to complete some infill drilling in
January before commencing trial mining to be absolutely confident about Gill,
but so far the indicators are very good.”

See actual Ann for more, including the table the assays and grade range estimates for all intercepts.
heres a link to the whole thing http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00783332

Cheers:D

[uptrend]

i remember reading Eureka Report about 1 month ago, where Charlie Aitken was recommending SBM and gave a detailed analysis, man Charlie Aitken has been spot on on few of his recommedation lately, he called FMG a $50 share when it was about $35, and NCM, OXR, BHP, WPL, the list goes on

[michael_selway]

i remember reading Eureka Report about 1 month ago, where Charlie Aitken was recommending SBM and gave a detailed analysis, man Charlie Aitken has been spot on on few of his recommedation lately, he called FMG a $50 share when it was about $35, and NCM, OXR, BHP, WPL, the list goes on

Hi did he mention any others?

Thanks

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -0.3 -0.8 6.0 11.3
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

[jammin]

Great move today. Wonder why? I would really like some feed back on this one thanks guys. It looks good

I feel the Share Purchase Plan is having a positive impact on the share price, and will have until the closing day of the SPP.
My thinking goes along the following lines. With the issue price of the SPP being "the lesser of $0.63 and a 2.5% discount to the VWAP" the higher the SP in the days prior to the close date (29th Nov), the greater the take up of the SPP.
Hence, if one was cynical enough, and had just re-read "Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator"; you could imagine the SP being supported in such a way to make the SPP look like an offer you can't refuse.
If this was to actually occur and you were eligible for the SPP, you could play the SPP as follows; apply to take up your full $5,000 parcel whilst selling part or all of your current holdings in the lead up to the 29th Nov. This locks in profit on your current holdings if the SP does fall after the closing date and gives you $5K of shares at $0.63 ea (or lower if the SP plummets)

[transportable]

i remember reading Eureka Report about 1 month ago, where Charlie Aitken was recommending SBM and gave a detailed analysis, man Charlie Aitken has been spot on on few of his recommedation lately, he called FMG a $50 share when it was about $35, and NCM, OXR, BHP, WPL, the list goes on

What is Eureka Report and where is it printed?
I'm a novice so humour me if this is a silly question please.
Cheers T:)

[uptrend]

What is Eureka Report and where is it printed?
I'm a novice so humour me if this is a silly question please.
Cheers T

T, you can find the report at: www.EurekaReport.com.au you can get a trial subscription i think, it's a report started by Alan Kohler



Hi did he mention any others?

Thanks

MS

MS, he recently tipped LLC and KAR, but he's mainly bullish on resources

[Uncle Festivus]

Hence, if one was cynical enough, and had just re-read "Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator"; you could imagine the SP being supported in such a way to make the SPP look like an offer you can't refuse.



I was thinking this also, and was going to leave it till the last minute to take up the offer. But, recent share price action has sort of left this idea in the dust so to speak, as the finish at 86c today blows out the margin to some 23c! That's nearly $2k profit for zip! (assuming the sp holds for 3 weeks?)

Also, SBM is starting to take on the look of a script supply deficit so it could be a genuine, full blown bullish buying frenzy happening. The Bid/Ask volume ratio is now 6:1. If the Au price of gold can hold or increase then there's every chance of a exponential blow off & correction, maybe coinciding with the commencement of trading of the new shares???

Then there's the possible BDG 'acquisition' to contemplate?

[The Mint Man]

Then there's the possible BDG 'acquisition' to contemplate?

Do you think this would be more likely considering the good news coming from BDG today?
I think it would be on the agenda more so now than before:2twocents maybe early next year?

Cheers:D

[Uncle Festivus]

Do you think this would be more likely considering the good news coming from BDG today?
I think it would be on the agenda more so now than before:2twocents maybe early next year?

Cheers:D

Who knows really? Sometimes I leave things to intuition? I just 'feel' SBM's foray onto the BDG register is well planned and has an ultimate goal. Consolidation in the Oz gold industry hasn't really started yet, there is well over 200 odd goldies still listed.

Also, this could be where some of the script has been getting soaked up -

[DionM]

SPP closed yesterday, today the SP takes a wobble.

Early in the day I know, but will be interesting to see if it breaks out of it's recent trendline (sorry, don't have access to decent graphing app here at work).

I was debating myself whether to jump in on the SPP or not ... in the end I didn't as it just seemed like too much of a discount to be true ...

[michael_selway]

T, you can find the report at: www.EurekaReport.com.au you can get a trial subscription i think, it's a report started by Alan Kohler




MS, he recently tipped LLC and KAR, but he's mainly bullish on resources


Ok Thanks

SBM fair value i think atm

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2007 2008 2009 2010
EPS -0.4 -1.0 3.5 9.1
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

thx

MS

[noirua]

Looking at the wobbly gold price and the markets acceptance of reducing U.S. interest rates, I've decided to reduce my holding in SBM. Will be patient with the rest as long-term prospects are very good.

[tradingforwealth]

I think people are waiting on the fed's decision to cut rates, but many analysts from business news report and newspapers are expecting a rate cut of 1/2 point not the standard 1/4 point.

This should trigger a US dollar decline and hopefully an increased gold price!

:2twocents

[Uncle Festivus]

Hence, if one was cynical enough, and had just re-read "Reminiscences Of A Stock Operator"; you could imagine the SP being supported in such a way to make the SPP look like an offer you can't refuse.
If this was to actually occur and you were eligible for the SPP, you could play the SPP as follows; apply to take up your full $5,000 parcel whilst selling part or all of your current holdings in the lead up to the 29th Nov. This locks in profit on your current holdings if the SP does fall after the closing date and gives you $5K of shares at $0.63 ea (or lower if the SP plummets)

That's pretty much what has happened, although we also had a concurrent correcting/consolidating gold price. The sp will continue under pressure, possibly into the 60's until the pog stabilises again (ignoring a takeover or good announcement). Profits to be had in the 80's, now looking for re-entry conditions from overbought levels?. Support at around 72c or 65c?

[noirua]

I think people are waiting on the fed's decision to cut rates, but many analysts from business news report and newspapers are expecting a rate cut of 1/2 point not the standard 1/4 point.

This should trigger a US dollar decline and hopefully an increased gold price!

:2twocents

The US interest rate decline may now be somewhat in the gold price already and it may well struggle from here. Other currencies have interest rate rise expectancies reversed now. UK will reduce rates Thursday BST by 0.25% or maybe 0.5% as tight money markets have sent the economy into sudden decline with property prices dropping.
The US Dollar may continue to strengthen if the Fed only drops interest rates by 0.25% and that includes the strong Euro and the Aussie.

[tradingforwealth]

The US interest rate decline may now be somewhat in the gold price already and it may well struggle from here. Other currencies have interest rate rise expectancies reversed now. UK will reduce rates Thursday BST by 0.25% or maybe 0.5% as tight money markets have sent the economy into sudden decline with property prices dropping.
The US Dollar may continue to strengthen if the Fed only drops interest rates by 0.25% and that includes the strong Euro and the Aussie.

They got strong fundamentals they are constantly proving reserves to enable they can produce at the higher rate by sept quarter so in the next year SBM should provide a much higher share price.

:(

[VViCKiD]

Hey did any body participate in the share purchase plan ? If so have you received your shares yet ? I can't see my alotment in comsec. Is this the same for everyone else ?

[saichuen]

I just got mine when I checked my CommSec account this morning again. 7937 in total. It wasn't there for the whole of yesterday.

By the way, the Fed just cut rates again. Let's hope the POG will follow with a favaourable response. :D

Happy trading!

[jammin]

Hey did any body participate in the share purchase plan ? If so have you received your shares yet ? I can't see my alotment in comsec. Is this the same for everyone else ?
The SPP shares arrived overnight in my Westpac account. It had a most beneficial effect on my portfolio, finally back in the black.

[jammin]

The Market depth looks as if 27 "stags" are lined up to sell at 70c and take a $500 to $750 quick profit.

[VViCKiD]

SBM is part of the ASX200 now...
Shame the ASX 200 is going down the plug hole... :eek:
Hopefully things work out for us all .

[explod]

That's pretty much what has happened, although we also had a concurrent correcting/consolidating gold price. The sp will continue under pressure, possibly into the 60's until the pog stabilises again (ignoring a takeover or good announcement). Profits to be had in the 80's, now looking for re-entry conditions from overbought levels?. Support at around 72c or 65c?


Support area confirmed. This is another oversold, reversal confirmed and time to go again.

Just my 2cents

[pixho]

HI,

Just wanting some advice about rebuying into SBM.

I baught SBM stock @ 0.13c and sold out @ 0.30c.

I am looking to rebuy now at around the 0.70c mark, would this be a wise move, or do you think this stock has done its dash?

Regards,

Pixho. :confused:

[tradingforwealth]

HI,

Just wanting some advice about rebuying into SBM.

I baught SBM stock @ 0.13c and sold out @ 0.30c.

I am looking to rebuy now at around the 0.70c mark, would this be a wise move, or do you think this stock has done its dash?

Regards,

Pixho. :confused:

Just remember pixho, the company has evolved so much from when you bought it at 13c and sold it at 30c. My bets are its going northwards from here when they start producing at midcap-sized company rates. My opinion only :2twocents

[Uncle Festivus]

An article on mine site.com about SBM potential.

http://www.minesite.com/nc/minews/singlenews/article/st-barbara-on-the-verge-of-a-major-revival.html

(Requires free subscription)

[Uncle Festivus]

December Qtr report out, Tower Hill continues to impress -


Resources
• Total Mineral Resources have increased to 10.1 Moz, an increase of 20%
• Tower Hill Resource is 1.4Moz, 18 Mt @ 2.4 grams per tonne (g/t), with mineralization open at
depth and to north and south. Discovery costs of A$6/oz
• Nevoria Resource at Southern Cross substantially increased to 531,000 ounces, 4.6 Mt @ 3.6 g/t
• A revised Reserves statement is being prepared for the March Quarter 2008

Exploration
Recent outstanding drilling results include:
Leonora
• Tower Hill#
‐ 46m @ 4.3 g/t from 298m, 35m @ 4.6 g/t from 302m, and 19.6m @ 4.4 g/t from 183m
• Gwalia West Lode# – 4.6m @ 15.4g/t @ 513 mbs* , and 4.1m @ 12.0g/t @ 539mbs
* metres below surface (mbs)
Southern Cross
• Marvel Loch Underground# – 22.7m @ 8.9g/t @ 751 mbs; and 12.2m @16.2g/t @508 mbs
• Nevoria ‐ 39m @ 3.2 g/t from 150m, 6m @ 14.3 g/t from 134m and 5m @ 16.5 g/t from 218m
• Transvaal ‐ 8m @ 15.5 g/t from 40m, 10m @ 7.1 g/t from 89m and 4m @ 14.7 g/t from 108m
# Intersection lengths for Tower Hill, Gwalia and Marvel Loch are true width

Operations – Southern Cross
• Gold production for quarter of 39,734 ounces at cash operating costs of A$518/oz (US$461/oz)
• On target to meet full year production forecast of 170,000‐175,000 ounces with a revised cash
operating cost of A$525 – A$550 (US$459 ‐ US$481) per ounce

Development ‐ Leonora
• Hoover Decline at 945 mbs; and on schedule and on budget to reach top of reserves during the
March Quarter 2008
• Refurbishment of Gwalia Mill with capacity of 1.2 – 1.8Mt per annum on schedule and on
budget for commencement of gold production in the September Quarter 2008

[explod]

Certainly expected this to firm but the volume and jump this morning, absent any announcement looks good for holders.

Volume delayed 20 odd minutes so volume of 88 mil not yet reflected in bar chart.

[Uncle Festivus]

This might explain it Explod -


A number of international institutions comprising existing
and new shareholders have acquired an aggregate 7.9%
interest or 78.7 million shares of the Company on
29 January 2007.

The shares sold represent the balance held by Resource
Capital Funds II and III LP. As announced to the
Australian Stock Exchange on 11 January 2008, these
shares were released from voluntary escrow on 25 January
2008.

The shares were placed by Haywood Securities Ltd of
Canada at A$0.81 per share, which represents a premium
of 3.0% to the volume weighted average price for the last
thirty trading days.

The Company welcomes the new shareholders onto its
share register as it continues to expand and develop long
term Australian gold operations.

[Uncle Festivus]

Looks like some of those recent buyers have decided to offload some. Either that or Chickens capper is back :D. 1.8m @ 83.5 sell order going through, slowly. 83c bidders happy to keep filling the depth!

[tradingforwealth]

Chicken has made some great calls he started this thread and also the zfx one at $2, and some others can't remember from the top of my head.

I truly think the guy has retired.. :sly:



I think SBM is down because of the fall in the US last night, there is always going to be sellers off loading because of this.

[explod]

Chicken has made some great calls he started this thread and also the zfx one at $2, and some others can't remember from the top of my head.

I truly think the guy has retired.. :sly:



I think SBM is down because of the fall in the US last night, there is always going to be sellers off loading because of this.


Well if he put all his doe in at 5cents I woulda retired too. But yep this is one of those bargains waiting for market confidence to come back to the gold sector IMHO.

This one actually is an old Rene Rivken pick back at 4 cents, followed it since but not all the time unfortunately.

[josjes]

Chicken.. yeah where is Chicken ... do your research as he is fond to say .. come back chicken make us rich...
sorry but I chickened out today, cash out at 83.5 c after picking it up at 70c last month now waiting for it to come back down to 66c ...

[noirua]

SBM are certainly plugging away well and they have presentations at Leonora and Southern Cross mines.

Let's hope nothing goes wrong at Gwalia Deeps as they get down towards 2,000 metres depth.

[Uncle Festivus]

Chicken.. yeah where is Chicken ... do your research as he is fond to say .. come back chicken make us rich...
sorry but I chickened out today, cash out at 83.5 c after picking it up at 70c last month now waiting for it to come back down to 66c ...

Ah, mystery solved then - did you cash out all 1.8 million?;)

Back to 88 today and gold up tonight - a bit to go yet maybe?

[eddyeagle]

This thread has gone a little quiet... SBM hit a high today of 92.5 cents (it also hit this price on 15th Jan) before closing at 91 cents. I'd be interested to hear people's predictions from here. I hope it breaks through that resistance barrier and continues climbing towards $1.

[DionM]

This thread has gone a little quiet... SBM hit a high today of 92.5 cents (it also hit this price on 15th Jan) before closing at 91 cents. I'd be interested to hear people's predictions from here. I hope it breaks through that resistance barrier and continues climbing towards $1.

This will be it's third attempt in recent history to break through a high ... I sold out on the way up to this peak - half expecting that it will retreat again (3rd wave).

[eddyeagle]

Smashed through the resistance to hit a new high today of 95.5 cents! Game on! No announcements either...

[tradingforwealth]

but there is an announcement coming very, very soon to report reserves update and maybe something more!

:)

[noirua]

North American Roadshow: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080218/pdf/317h6nn4d6rd5f.pdf

Half Year Results: http://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20080218/pdf/317h86dp6x6585.pdf

[Uncle Festivus]

We attach a Notice of Initial Substantial Holder received from Deans Knight Capital Management, based in Vancouver, Canada.

62m share or 6.2%Another vote of confidence - some interest from the Canadians has to be a good thing :D.

[Uncle Festivus]

I am running the ruler over possible takeover targets for an imminent consolidation in the Aus gold industry. This is due to the big majors struggling to replace reserves and the rising gold price. The thing with SBM is that I don't think it's future potential has been priced in at all, even at these levels.

What I think could be happening is that there are some keen eyes watching the developments going on with Gwalia about to come online. If it proves to be a winner not only will there be sp re rating but also a takeover option.

Now if SBM have a tilt at BDG as well, and BDG finally start digging the stuff out in forecast quantities then we could be looking at a million oz plus syndicate of very attractive gold companies.

All conjecture at this point of course ;).

[Uncle Festivus]

Things are moving now.....funds to re weight their portfolios to include SBM for the XJO now.


Standard & Poor’s to Include St Barbara Ltd in the S&P/ASX 200

SYDNEY, Feb. 21, 2008—Standard & Poor’s Index Services Australia today announced that it will
remove Symbion Health Ltd (ASX: SYB) from the S&P/ASX indices, after Primary Health Care Ltd.
(ASX: PRY) acquired in excess of 70% of shareholder acceptances, and declared its offer
unconditional. Symbion Health Ltd will be removed from the S&P/ASX indices after the close of
business on Feb. 28, 2008.

Symbion Health Ltd. will be replaced by Bank of Queensland Ltd. (ASX: BOQ) in the S&P/ASX 100
and by St Barbara Ltd. (ASX: SBM) in the S&P/ASX 200. Felix Resources Ltd. (ASX: FLX) will
replace Symbion Health Ltd. in the S&P/ASX All Australian 200. These changes are scheduled to
become effective after the close of business on Feb. 28, 2008.

[56gsa]

All still largely positive for SBM although profit ann on 19 feb wasn't what some had hoped - which may explain todays drop ? all the indices have turned down too - infact there's been divergence in RSI reaching lower tops for for each of the three peaks... with gold still holding i suspect the support at 82c may come into play - but if gold falls this looks to have some downside maybe in ST - good buying opp imo...


Brokers Keep The Faith In St Barbara
FN Arena News - February 19 2008

By Chris Shaw


Sometimes results just don't matter, as evidenced by a number of reactions in the market to the St Barbara Mines (SBM) profit result announced yesterday. While GSJB Were saw it as a weak result others chose to largely ignore the numbers to focus more on the company's longer-term upside.


The upside comes partly from the Gwalia Deeps project, which the company pointed out remains on track for first ore to be produced early in FY09. The second area of upside is exploration, with Citi noting the upcoming March quarterly production report should contain a reserve increase at Southern Cross and initial reserves at Tower Hill, which it sees as a promising project.


This upside is enough for the broker to retain its Buy rating, even though the loss for the half year was a little larger than it had anticipated. The broker does point out the bigger than expected loss was largely due to exploration expenses being capitalised versus expensed, which explains its lack of concern as to why the numbers fell short of its estimates.


It was a similar story at Deutsche Bank, the broker suggesting while the loss was greater than it had forecast it was due primarily to non-cash items such as higher deprecation and amortisation (D&A) charges.


With additional reserves expected to be announced in the March quarterly the broker expects the D&A rate to come down, while it remains attracted to the fact the company will be unhedged at a time when gold prices are strong and production will be increasing.


Macquarie also remains positive and has lifted its price target to $1.10 from $0.70 while noting the likelihood of exploration success is good given the company has allocated around $25 million for its exploration budget this year. It sees any reserve or resource upgrades in coming months as positive catalysts for the share price and like Deutsche the broker is attracted to the unhedged exposure to gold prices the stock offers.


GSJB Were preferred to focus on the fact cash flow may be something of a problem as on its numbers the company's cash flow for the year was not enough to cover the development costs at Marvel Loch, let alone at Gwalia Deeps.


But on Macquarie's numbers the company has the cash available to fund its developments so it doesn't see this as being a major issue, though it noted there is some risk if the Southern Cross project encounters any operating issues that slow down its development.


Overall the FNArena database shows the stock is rated as Buy three times and Hold once (GSJB Were) with an average price target of $1.04, up from $0.94 prior to the result thanks to Macquarie's increase in its target.


Shares in St Barbara today are slightly weaker and as at 11.05am were down 3.5c at $0.87, which compares with a range over the past 12 months of 37c-95.5c.

[shaunm]

I was checking the mining conference presentation and there were two charts tha showed market cap for SBM against the big gold players.
Lihir Gold was the closest to the SBM level.
Could someone more knowledgable than myself give a quick comparison on these (LGL vs SBM)
The share price for LGL is at $4 compared to SBM's 84c. Does SBM have the potential to get anywhere near the LGL share price?
:)

[agro]

on bell was 83 but finished 91c

now there is volume of 14 million with the majority occurring post auction

would you consider this to be someone taking a substantial holding in the company?

[shaunm]

So I guess we can expect an announcment tomorrow? A big purchase after close, does someone know something special or is it just an institutional placement?
:)

[56gsa]

So I guess we can expect an announcment tomorrow? A big purchase after close, does someone know something special or is it just an institutional placement?
:)

yes - very strange 17.5 million after the bell at 9% premium to price at close... but then theres been strange substantial holding notices for last couple of months - barclays / merrill lynch buying big ? anyone make sense of this?

[MRC & Co]

All aboard!!!!!!! If not, you got a few minutes to get on board still before the weekend!

Someone is LOADING up with this one again at close today!

Looks STRONG technically, good volume, nearly breaking out into the clear blue skies!

Fundamentally, gold is "as safe as houses" ;) at the moment, in the perfect times of uncertainty and high inflation!

Just need the RBA to leave IR on hold or possibly slash them later this year, to see some interest rate parity take its toll on the AUD, and we could really see this one take off!!!

Good luck to all those in this thread!

[Uncle Festivus]

Yes, perhaps a bit more interest than the average day trader going on here, at least someone with an agenda or order to fill? Maybe fundies filling up on their XJO qouta?

[Goldmann]

I was checking the mining conference presentation and there were two charts tha showed market cap for SBM against the big gold players.
Lihir Gold was the closest to the SBM level.
Could someone more knowledgable than myself give a quick comparison on these (LGL vs SBM)
The share price for LGL is at $4 compared to SBM's 84c. Does SBM have the potential to get anywhere near the LGL share price?
:)

Lihir up nearly 10% today... Gold starting to really hit its strides... I have been watching SBM and this thread with interest... Wish i got some around the mid Jan 70c mark... oh welll - well done to those who hold... clear skies ahead for aussie gold I hope!

[MRC & Co]

Yes, perhaps a bit more interest than the average day trader going on here, at least someone with an agenda or order to fill? Maybe fundies filling up on their XJO qouta?

Yes, as you said earlier also, funds to re weight their portfolios to include SBM for the XJO now.

Could well be what is happening.

Though, the current gold price and the fundamentals that look to drive it are agenda in its own right.

However, a combination of both combined with the fact its about to breakout on strong volume, are all very very positive to me!

Im expecting this one to roll on now!

[Uncle Festivus]

NOTICE OF INITIAL SUBSTANTIAL HOLDER

AMP Limited discloses a substantial holding in St Barbara Limited - 5.27%


Also, a few others like Cogent also topping up.

[MRC & Co]

NOTICE OF INITIAL SUBSTANTIAL HOLDER

AMP Limited discloses a substantial holding in St Barbara Limited - 5.27%


Also, a few others like Cogent also topping up.

Yes, at close today will be interesting once more!

Could see some more large fingers dipping into the gold pot!

[traderboy]

Some very "interesting" buy's in the pipeline this morning.

Very interesting............. Not sure how legitimate these are

[explod]

Some very "interesting" buy's in the pipeline this morning.

Very interesting............. Not sure how legitimate these are

Would be pleased to have you explain "...interesting......."

SBM is one of mine so do watch it a bit and since mentioned above have been noticing buyers holding back for the pool to refill. It is starting to happen again around the .955 to .965 where we could expect another surge to the larger sell area of.97 Volume is down at this stage today although late last week 15 mill went in the last half hour one day. Who knows ?

[traderboy]

Would be pleased to have you explain "...interesting......."

SBM is one of mine so do watch it a bit and since mentioned above have been noticing buyers holding back for the pool to refill. It is starting to happen again around the .955 to .965 where we could expect another surge to the larger sell area of.97 Volume is down at this stage today although late last week 15 mill went in the last half hour one day. Who knows ?

Lots of multiple buys of 2,444 shares are various prices, I lost count of them, but then they disapeared. Maybe somone just playing around, but not sure

[MRC & Co]

Would be pleased to have you explain "...interesting......."

SBM is one of mine so do watch it a bit and since mentioned above have been noticing buyers holding back for the pool to refill. It is starting to happen again around the .955 to .965 where we could expect another surge to the larger sell area of.97 Volume is down at this stage today although late last week 15 mill went in the last half hour one day. Who knows ?

I dont think that has any impact whatsoever traderboy.

Explod, I dont beleive volume is low at this stage today (though I havent done a comparison of the same time previous days).

I have however, noted large buyers coming in towards close and expect the same today. Think volume will end up pretty similar to the last couple days and the stock will close slightly higher once more.

[MRC & Co]

I dont think that has any impact whatsoever traderboy.

Explod, I dont beleive volume is low at this stage today (though I havent done a comparison of the same time previous days).

I have however, noted large buyers coming in towards close and expect the same today. Think volume will end up pretty similar to the last couple days and the stock will close slightly higher once more.

Turns out we didnt get much more movement, either volume or price at close, even though the market rallied into the close.

[explod]

Turns out we didnt get much more movement, either volume or price at close, even though the market rallied into the close.


Yeh, caution required here, swing traders would be getting out on this and a red candle at the top with a tail up is one I take note of. Mid to long term holders no probs but I'm a squib. Gold price hike tonight could change my mind by tomorrow.

[MRC & Co]

Yeh, caution required here, swing traders would be getting out on this and a red candle at the top with a tail up is one I take note of. Mid to long term holders no probs but I'm a squib. Gold price hike tonight could change my mind by tomorrow.

Gold price hike and I will definately stay in, it would really be testing the 1000 then.

As for individual candles, I used to try use them to predict trends, well moreso a changing trend, but cant say there were very effective in my time.

Hope Im wrong, but I will remain on this one at least for the short-term (assuming no major price turn) with these rising gold prices! :eek7:

Thought this one was breaking out on high volume into the clear blue skies! Dont like the fact its having such trouble and will remain very cautious.

[56gsa]

seems SBM not so confident about gold price maintaining its momentum... from an article in the age


Mysterious power at the heart of gold
James Kirby
March 9, 2008
Page 2 of 2

.....

Well, you say, those gold producers must know what they are doing - they're at the heart of it all actually digging the stuff out of the ground. Yes, it's true. It's also true these two big companies have had pitiful recent histories, with Newcrest enduring extended problems at its Telfer mine in WA and Lihir enduring all the limitations of a mine in PNG. But still you'd think they're all thinking the same way about the underlying price of gold. But as always with gold things are never quite what they seem. As investors digest the scale of the recent price rises very smart players in the market are not showing anything like the outward confidence suggested at Lihir and Newcrest.

At St Barbara Mines, perhaps the most highly rated listed gold miner outside the "big two", the big decisions are made by managing director Ed Eshuys. He's the nearest thing to Australia's Mr Gold. He was the geologist who led the team who developed Bronzewing, one of the biggest gold mines in Western Australia.

You'd think Eshuys would be holding back waiting for these $US1000-plus forecasts to come true but in fact he has been "re-hedging" at St Barbara - he's not saying the price can't go much higher, but actions speak louder than words - he's covering his bets at these levels with a new hedging program.

And what price is Mr Gold prepared to "lock in" his gold sales . - $US800 an ounce. That's what he told a conference in Florida last week.

[MRC & Co]

Interesting. Though, I would like to hear his reasoning. As I said in the gold thread, where the hell are people going to put their money at the moment, OTHER than inflationary investments, precious metals being one of the best? Think about it. Commodity bubble or Commodity "bank"?

I actually got out of this one already. Wasnt confident, not to mention, would rather those closer to or actually producing currently, to take advantage of any short-term rise in the POG.

[Uncle Festivus]

Not sure if the reporter got it right, maybe confused as 'Mr Gold' usually uses puts etc, so not sure if they are outright futures hedges as such?

[shaunm]

A bit of a disappointing day for SBM. Would have thought today's bounce would have pushed the SP up? I think it actually went up momentarily but then was snuffed out.
Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
:)

[explod]

A bit of a disappointing day for SBM. Would have thought today's bounce would have pushed the SP up? I think it actually went up momentarily but then was snuffed out.
Does anyone have any thoughts on this?
:)

Yep, patience my dear friend. Crazy times, most of the good gold stocks got the same. Wonderful company and will reward.

[tradingforwealth]

I think we are in a bear market and volatility like this will happen..

Not that I like it but gold and oil should keep going up.. :banghead:

[The Ferret]

Not sure if the reporter got it right, maybe confused as 'Mr Gold' usually uses puts etc, so not sure if they are outright futures hedges as such?

You are right. The reporter is wrong by suggesting they have "locked in" gold sales at 800usd oz. According to the most recent company presentation on SBM website they are put options. 1.5moz at cost of 11mAUD and they are seeking further put options at 800AUD per oz or higher, NOT 800usd as per story and being put options they are not "locked" into anything..

[shaunm]

Hmmm, Quite a sell-down today so far today 3.3million shares and down 3 percent, maybe should buy some more?? :confused:

[explod]

Hmmm, Quite a sell-down today so far today 3.3million shares and down 3 percent, maybe should buy some more?? :confused:

Took the words right out of my head , I just did 10 minutes ago. But sentiment may take them a bit lower yet.

I think when they turn they will never revisit this level again. But have been wrong before.

[Uncle Festivus]

Hmmm, Quite a sell-down today so far today 3.3million shares and down 3 percent, maybe should buy some more?? :confused:

As much as I would like to concur, as I hold a few of these, gold equities appear to caught up in the general bear market. It will drift until there is a clear new direction for gold, so just be patient as per explod; you never miss a bargain on the way down.

Although, being down 7% today, 20% from 98 at the top, hitting 75.5 we may get some new entries topping up today?

[MRC & Co]

As much as I would like to concur, as I hold a few of these, gold equities appear to caught up in the general bear market. It will drift until there is a clear new direction for gold, so just be patient as per explod; you never miss a bargain on the way down.

Although, being down 7% today, 20% from 98 at the top, hitting 75.5 we may get some new entries topping up today?

Yeh, its becoming a very good price, but I wouldnt be topping up quiet yet, wait to see some change in the selling/buying pressure.

I just bought the real thing, balance it out against my equity plays.

Havent you guys who have been holding this one been stopped out yet? It broke through support today.

[Uncle Festivus]

Yeh, its becoming a very good price, but I wouldnt be topping up quiet yet, wait to see some change in the selling/buying pressure.

I just bought the real thing, balance it out against my equity plays.

Havent you guys who have been holding this one been stopped out yet? It broke through support today.My entry was 20c, so all free carried now, but will be looking to top up when the price is right :D

[MRC & Co]

My entry was 20c, so all free carried now, but will be looking to top up when the price is right :D

Yes, but does it really make a difference between loosing capital or loosing profits? In the end, its all the same, just semantics.

I used to think the same, "ah well, my entry was a lot lower anyways" and a few times have ended up loosing my entire gains (though, I am not stating this one would go anywhere near 20c again), but you get my drift.

[The Ferret]

Yes, but does it really make a difference between loosing capital or loosing profits? .

I guess it depends on objectives... it's also impossible to know, with any degree of accuracy, whether enacting a stop loss (while in profit) is going to cost more in the long run when it comes to capital gains tax. Personally, I think that the money made from selling and re-buying at lower levels usually will not cover any loss of the 50% CGT discount if you intend on eventually holding for >12 months.

[Uncle Festivus]

Yes, but does it really make a difference between loosing capital or loosing profits? In the end, its all the same, just semantics.

I used to think the same, "ah well, my entry was a lot lower anyways" and a few times have ended up loosing my entire gains (though, I am not stating this one would go anywhere near 20c again), but you get my drift.

Yep, don't get me wrong, I very nearly turfed the lot at 95, but I remember sitting there when it plumbed 38c in the big sell off last year and lamenting, but the fundamentals held up then, and I am hoping they will in the future a la OXR eg if their projects & projections are winners then we should see the sp in multiples of what it is today?

I have found that if your research is sound and you get a good entry point, holding is more profitable than trading, and less stress :D.

[MRC & Co]

I guess it depends on objectives... it's also impossible to know, with any degree of accuracy, whether enacting a stop loss (while in profit) is going to cost more in the long run when it comes to capital gains tax. Personally, I think that the money made from selling and re-buying at lower levels usually will not cover any loss of the 50% CGT discount if you intend on eventually holding for >12 months.

Yes, CGT comes into effect, however perhaps you (Uncle in this case) were already holding the share for 12 months.....

Uncle, I agree, I like to hold also, but I find it more stress in this current environment! How low can we go.......hence why trading has become my prefered option. Volatility can kill though, whipsaws have become chainsaws so to speak!

Definately though, buying companies coming online in the next year or so can lead to HUGE gains if projections go to plan.

I have done the same with EQN and to date its by far my biggest single gain from one individual stock!

[tradingforwealth]

Gold is at 990US per/oz atm.. hopefully it gets to 1000 by tomorrow and maybe we'll see SBM back up again.

:o

[explod]

Gold is at 990US per/oz atm.. hopefully it gets to 1000 by tomorrow and maybe we'll see SBM back up again.

:o

Dont' worry too much about SBM. I have just pointed out to my Grandson that the price drop off of SBM and many other good stocks is due to a jittery market. In the bigger picture stocks like LGL, OXR, NCM etc., have dropped a bit but nothing compared to say financials such as Macquarie, $97 in June last year $46 today. NAB another notable. Gradually the market will pick up on the difference between the value of prescious metals and the growing non-value of the financials et al. and it will be emerging stocks like SBM that will rise exponentially upwards. Other problem is, if one steps aside there is a tendancy not to follow it so much so that when it goes we miss the rise.

If not tonight but I think very soon, not only will the gold price rise substantailly, but our emerging mid tier gold miners will be right up there too.

[MRC & Co]

I hope it hits 1000 by tomorrow. Many appear to think it will then blow-off top, however wasnt the same said about oil once it cracked 100?

Definately some HUGE potential gains off gold at the moment.

I have taken a big risk with it and placed 40% of my portfolio into gold equities and bullion. Thinking of rising that to above 50%.....of course with stops. Like the idea of inflation and a fed rate cut all within a week, better to get in before the news I think!

[explod]

I hope it hits 1000 by tomorrow. Many appear to think it will then blow-off top, however wasnt the same said about oil once it cracked 100?

Definately some HUGE potential gains off gold at the moment.

I have taken a big risk with it and placed 40% of my portfolio into gold equities and bullion. Thinking of rising that to above 50%.....of course with stops. Like the idea of inflation and a fed rate cut all within a week, better to get in before the news I think!

How much would you put on a racehorse if you were certain that it was going to win. The great thing about thorough research is that you know when it is winning, if it starts to break down you get off.

For the record I have 66% of my portofolio in bullion and gold stocks. Diversified in the sense that I have both gold and silver and currently 5 gold stocks. During office hours I can unload my bullion for cash in an hour, you know the answer with the equities.

[tradingforwealth]

thanks for the advice explod.. I know this and and quietly confident but yeah I just don't like looking at my position statement atm when I could of made so much more if I had taken out and gotten back in but I guess there was no way I would know when to get out and when to get in and I was worried I would miss the train.

Any the moment I buy on mainly gut feeling and what I feel is a good price to get in and out.. but for this stock I decided to wait until after Sept quarter and then decide, providing they provide more information :banghead:

In the past, I have sold stock and then it rockets up or if I hold it goes down.. you get the picture.

And i have not been in a bearish market and do not know what to expect and how long it would last.

Anyway Gold is 994USp/oz

[MRC & Co]

How much would you put on a racehorse if you were certain that it was going to win. The great thing about thorough research is that you know when it is winning, if it starts to break down you get off.

For the record I have 66% of my portofolio in bullion and gold stocks. Diversified in the sense that I have both gold and silver and currently 5 gold stocks. During office hours I can unload my bullion for cash in an hour, you know the answer with the equities.

Yes, the racehorse example is one I used myself. Ha ha, great minds ;)

Looking at the POG tonight, I am pizzed I didnt buy more today. Though, its only the beginning of its run! Just let it break 1000 like oil did 100 and then see the results. So tomorrow I will load up again I think, probably more than 50% in gold.

I currently hold 3 gold equities. Though, looking to add SBM and possibly LGL. You in OGC explod? (I hold it, along with EQI and SGX). Looking FANTASTIC technically! With a strong gold result tonight (assuming S&P doesnt get hammered also), it will soar to the moon tomorrow! Did 5% today in a falling market. No better gold play at the moment for the short-term IMHO. See how we go. Which 5 are you in?

[Ashsaege]

Everyone seems to be in high hopes for today!

Any predictions for the short term? Hows the POG shaping? I should probably look on that thread

already up 6 cents

[The Ferret]

Everyone seems to be in high hopes for today!

Any predictions for the short term? Hows the POG shaping? I should probably look on that thread

already up 6 cents

I think yesterdays dip was an aberration and that SP will now trade at/around support level that was "broken" yesterday... I believe it will settle around the 80-83c mark today but not higher until market depth balances out. Hope i'm wrong though....

[Ashsaege]

The price of gold is going great guns! SBM opened today in the green... but has fallen into the red with the rest of the market :banghead:

[explod]

I think yesterdays dip was an aberration and that SP will now trade at/around support level that was "broken" yesterday... I believe it will settle around the 80-83c mark today but not higher until market depth balances out. Hope i'm wrong though....


There is a big seller been at it now for a week

Some major sharehlders, all in the 5% range could need capital for other worries are Merrill Lynch, Barclays and JP Morgan Chase. One who went out last year and had 5% was Credit Suisse (Europe).

[Uncle Festivus]

Yes, looks like they are trickle feeding in at 78c, 10k lot's

[explod]

Yes, looks like they are trickle feeding in at 78c, 10k lot's

Yep and as soon as they back off the price firms. A great buying opportunity below .80 Collected well at .79 last week so have enough

[The Ferret]

whats with all the 1224 parcel size transactions?? The trades that have executed today are littered with them....

Can anyone clarify or speculate??

[Uncle Festivus]

Yep and as soon as they back off the price firms. A great buying opportunity below .80 Collected well at .79 last week so have enough

Got some more today @ 78c. Another cap level @ 80c. Will we get the auction buying today to dip into the green?

Ferret, I think they are computer allocated lot's determined by how much the seller has to get rid of on the day, small lot's so as not to tank the share price?

[marc1]

Hey sbm followers has anyone eles noticed the amount of 1000 unit trades going through all day??? is this a quiet accumulation?

Trade of SBM occuring on Tuesday, 25 Mar 2008

52 Week
Time Price Volume Value Condition
12:48:58 PM 0.755 2,000 1,510.00
12:46:26 PM 0.755 1,000 755.00
12:46:25 PM 0.755 1,000 755.00 XT
12:46:24 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:23 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:22 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:21 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:20 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:19 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:18 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:17 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:16 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:15 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:14 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:13 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:12 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:12 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:11 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:10 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00
12:46:09 PM 0.750 1,000 750.00

[explod]

The seller of the last week has now gone away. Just hit a high of .84

how sweet it is.

Cheers explod

[Uncle Festivus]

An interesting period ahead for SBM with some announcements due soon, and a resolution of the current 'drift' in the sp on very low volumes maybe? Has anyone else noticed the 3 o'clock rush lately - sp drifts all day then buyers top up right on 3pm or so? Accumulation?

[Santob]

Look at the number of buys in 1228 and 1229 quantities yesterday. Are these done by so called bots? Anyway, here's hoping for something good.

[breakeven]

Look at the number of buys in 1228 and 1229 quantities yesterday. Are these done by so called bots? Anyway, here's hoping for something good.

Another increase in Substantial Holdings today. This time for M&G Investments Managements Ltd. M&G appear an investment fund owned by Prudential and operating mainly out of Europe. When I reseached SBM one of the things that attracted me was the number of increased holdings by large instos eg JP Morgan, AMP and Merryl (all in Feb this year). Top 20 now hold over 70% of SBM. So someone thinks its good buying!

[Uncle Festivus]

A 'clean' share register would make it a lot easier for a takeover, at this 'consolidating' level of share price. Seems to have found a base around 75-80c, even with the gold price slowly appreciating, so somethings gotta give here sooner or later?

[shaunm]

Do any holders have an opinion as to why this has been dropping consistently over the last e few days?:confused:

[kennas]

Do any holders have an opinion as to why this has been dropping consistently over the last e few days?:confused:Find a developer/producer who is going up...eeeek! Goldies have been smashed the past few weeks. Check the NCM and LGL charts...:(

[Ashsaege]

Do any holders have an opinion as to why this has been dropping consistently over the last e few days?:confused:

Apparently there was an article in the Financial Review yesterday saying that there are holders who are shorting around 10% of SBM stock. I will have a look at it tonight and post it on here.

[explod]

Apparently there was an article in the Financial Review yesterday saying that there are holders who are shorting around 10% of SBM stock. I will have a look at it tonight and post it on here.


Yes, it occurred to me today as I got back in at .69, and whilst waiting for the fill noticed a string of buys at about 470 share parcels. They try to paint a perception that the buy side are small fry and the sellers are large when in fact the situation is the oposite. Seems to be falling over though, it is now looking oversold and will rally considerably from here as the gold price begins to firm.

I think upside news is due as well.

[shaunm]

Apparently there was an article in the Financial Review yesterday saying that there are holders who are shorting around 10% of SBM stock. I will have a look at it tonight and post it on here.

I have to admit I am completely in the dark as to what "shorting" really is, can someone school me please?
:)

[explod]

I have to admit I am completely in the dark as to what "shorting" really is, can someone school me please?
:)


Yep, one decides a stock is going to drop, lets say SBM which some time back was .90 cents, borrows 10,000 from Stock Broker, sells the 10,000 shares at the .90 cent price, whatches price fall to .70 cents, buys back the 10,000 shares and gives them back to the broker and pockets the profit. Of course if the shares were to rise then the hirer (short position) can lose big time as well.

I think there is some argument that this practice in some types of trading should be stopped. I am not into it myself as I can find plenty of opportunities long.

[shaunm]

OK Thanks.
So I guess there are an arsenal of dirty tricks they can play to help the share price drop and make the profit; basically market manipulation.:mad:

[prawn_86]

OK Thanks.
So I guess there are an arsenal of dirty tricks they can play to help the share price drop and make the profit; basically market manipulation.:mad:

Does that mean when buyers push the price up it is also market manipulation? :p:

One has to remember that shorting has no more downward pressure on a stock than going long has upward pressure...

[explod]

OK Thanks.
So I guess there are an arsenal of dirty tricks they can play to help the share price drop and make the profit; basically market manipulation.:mad:


Yep, just look at the last 10 trades as we speak, someone is working at it big time and the regulators ought to be looking at such displays in my view.

ASX Code: (Search for ASX Code)


All Ordinaries ASX Time Market Status Legend
5,666.7 5.9 03:18 pm, 30 April 2008 Normal Rise Fall

St Barbara Limited (SBM)
Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions
30-04-2008 03:17 PM $0.695 1221 $848.595
30-04-2008 03:17 PM $0.695 1221 $848.595
30-04-2008 03:14 PM $0.695 1220 $847.900
30-04-2008 03:14 PM $0.695 1221 $848.595
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 6305 $4,350.450
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 992 $684.480
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 470 $324.300
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 470 $324.300
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 471 $324.990
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 470 $324.300

[Uncle Festivus]

Does that mean when buyers push the price up it is also market manipulation? :p:

One has to remember that shorting has no more downward pressure on a stock than going long has upward pressure...

Without re hashing the shorting thread, I think a shortable stock is much more prone to downward pressure, ie a long only stock can usually be margined as well so it has an upward bias, all other things being equal. The ability to short on margin usually exacerbates downward pressure. There have been many a time I would have liked to short but the stock was long only, so what would have been my selling pressure does not have any affect so you are left with the genuine long holders selling to create downward pressure, which may or may not happen, so the bias is up until other forces dictate selling?


Yep, just look at the last 10 trades as we speak, someone is working at it big time and the regulators ought to be looking at such displays in my view.

ASX Code: (Search for ASX Code)


All Ordinaries ASX Time Market Status Legend
5,666.7 5.9 03:18 pm, 30 April 2008 Normal Rise Fall

St Barbara Limited (SBM)
Date Time Price ($) Quantity Value ($) Conditions
30-04-2008 03:17 PM $0.695 1221 $848.595
30-04-2008 03:17 PM $0.695 1221 $848.595
30-04-2008 03:14 PM $0.695 1220 $847.900
30-04-2008 03:14 PM $0.695 1221 $848.595
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 6305 $4,350.450
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 992 $684.480
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 470 $324.300
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 470 $324.300
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 471 $324.990
30-04-2008 03:12 PM $0.690 470 $324.300

Explod, not sure if it's much to be concerned about as when companies are admitted to an index sector eg ASX200 then all the hard work is done by computers. They tell the puter how much they need to buy/sell and it 'feeds' the orders out. At least that is how I've been told it works.

[Ashsaege]

Yes, it occurred to me today as I got back in at .69, and whilst waiting for the fill noticed a string of buys at about 470 share parcels. They try to paint a perception that the buy side are small fry and the sellers are large when in fact the situation is the oposite. Seems to be falling over though, it is now looking oversold and will rally considerably from here as the gold price begins to firm.

I think upside news is due as well.

I've topped up today. Im hoping to see a decent rally and decent news soon!

Explod would you prefer a stock's SP to go down from people shorting it (and possibly welcome it) than bad company announcements?

[56gsa]

Apparently there was an article in the Financial Review yesterday saying that there are holders who are shorting around 10% of SBM stock. I will have a look at it tonight and post it on here.

ashsaege - did you ever find this article... whats your thinking on SBM? Whats the decent news you're expecting?

I sold a few around 80 but still hold some - seems to be at a critical juncture now breaking through 200mda and testing long-term support at 60-64? RSI is still respecting downtrend but has gone below 30 and this usually signals a bit of a rally?

[Ashsaege]

ashsaege - did you ever find this article... whats your thinking on SBM? Whats the decent news you're expecting?


The accountant from work pinched the Financial Review, and by the time he brought it back a few people on here worked it out anyways. But there was a list of about 10 companies who had holders shorting stock... OXR was one from memory.

I agree with you about the RSI and a rally being due, i believe it is a good time to buy and accumulate now. Though the price of gold isn't doing any favors for the short term!

Explod was expecting some upside news soon

[explod]

The accountant from work pinched the Financial Review, and by the time he brought it back a few people on here worked it out anyways. But there was a list of about 10 companies who had holders shorting stock... OXR was one from memory.

I agree with you about the RSI and a rally being due, i believe it is a good time to buy and accumulate now. Though the price of gold isn't doing any favors for the short term!

Explod was expecting some upside news soon

Company gave a presentation last week which is worth looking at on their website. Yes the s.p has suffered due to the drop in gold price. The mine now goes underground from the pit so cost per ounce is going to be higher more. High gold price no worries (they are unhedged) but drop in price cuts the margins. Next quarterly report due about 24th June will indicate if they are on target to increase gold production. This is a well run mob and I have no doubt that they will deliver. As we speak gold is firming up, so I am holding and would see it as a great buying opportunity at this price.

[Uncle Festivus]

We may just be having a confluence of factors -
waiting to see if the new Deeps access will deliver
weak gold price in $AU
shorters having their way, only means there will be a short covering rally??
sitting on support @65cHowever, the medium term upside is compelling -
Tower hill drilling/resource definition
Target of annual production of 1moz within a year
Higher gold price??
all the other projects
Bendigo takeover????So where are we at -
currently producing approx 250koz
share price @65
current share price does not price in 1mil oz prod?

[roka]

Interesting article in todays SMH:

Ambitions realised
Like Monarch, St Barbara Mines has long held ambitious plans. But it is a lot closer to delivering. Since picking up assets from the administrators of Sons of Gwalia in 2005, St Barbara has worked hard to turn some tough mines into decent earners.
St Barbara expects to produce 165,000 to 170,000 ounces at a cash cost of $525 to $550 an ounce this year. The company is looking forward to its long-awaited, high-grade $117 million Gwalia Deeps project to enter production in the September quarter.

The managing director, Ed Eshuys, said his company should be producing gold at a rate of 450,000 ounces a year by December and hoped to become a 1 million ounce producer by 2010 through additional discoveries or acquisitions.

St Barbara is spending $35 million a year on exploration, with an average discovery cost of $20 an ounce.

http://business.smh.com.au/digging-deep-for-golds-rich-rewards/20080511-2d12.html?page=2

[noirua]

St Barbara have slumped badly with the gold price and stand a longway from the 2008 closing high of 98 cents. This radio report, back in April, is interesting in that it lays out the prospectus in WA: http://www.brr.com.au/event/44506

[noirua]

St Barbara have slumped badly with the gold price and stand a longway from the 2008 closing high of 98 cents. This radio report, back in April, is interesting in that it lays out the prospectus in WA: http://www.brr.com.au/event/44506
I've decided to increase my holding in St Barbara on the back of increased oil prices and of course gold. Looking cheap after the 35% pull back and worth a punt, MAYBE, for those who accept high risk, imho. One of the most interesting Aussie gold gambles, mainly at the very deep, Gwalia Deeps.

[MRC & Co]

Agree Noirua, I opened a position at close today.

Gold at least to me, looks like it's ready to go on a run.

SBM - Great volume today, large spread, closed near the high, broke out of a (weak) descending triangle.

Really want to see it break the $0.75 mark to see it breakout of it's longer term trendline from it's highs.

RSI is also confirmation, with it about to break it's late April high, despite price still being far from it's respective price on the same date.

Of course, all comes down to POG!

Good luck too all on board!

You still holding Festivus, or did you get spooked?

[Uncle Festivus]

You still holding Festivus, or did you get spooked?
I dropped 20% from the port @ 85c to get some cash for others, but still hangin in there :D. Still waiting for a BIG event before commiting to more gold stocks, and looking at physical too at the right time ie if when the $AU has a meaningfull correction to give the local price a kick? Waiting, waiting.....

PS this is still grossly undervalued if Ed & the boys deliver on their promises!

[MRC & Co]

looking at physical too at the right time ie if when the $AU has a meaningfull correction to give the local price a kick? Waiting, waiting.....

PS this is still grossly undervalued if Ed & the boys deliver on their promises!

Yeh, these are the two points for me!

The AUD is killing us gold investors here at the moment!

Definately undervalued, another reason I got on board, along with the technicals! :D

A few profit takers today by the looks of it, but enough buyers came in to hold it up.

[explod]

Yeh, these are the two points for me!

The AUD is killing us gold investors here at the moment!

Definately undervalued, another reason I got on board, along with the technicals! :D

A few profit takers today by the looks of it, but enough buyers came in to hold it up.
\

Yep, could not help myself. Back in today as I believe the gold price has built up the momentum to break resistance at U$950 and then may test the high. September is the next hot season for gold which is a way off yet so a lift of buying here due to oil etc. would be very bullish indeed.

The rise in gold over the last few years has more than offset the change in currency between us and the US. It is an issue given more credence than it should IMHO. Just another throwaway from the financial industry. Many of the old seniors got burnt (the suckers) following the 1980 spike and have turned everyone off since.

Cant' see much risk in a punt on SBM anyway.

[eddyeagle]

Has anyone got any thoughts as to why SBM has fallen from a high of 98 cents in early March to close around 56 cents today?

I cannot see any negative news and the latest presentation looks solid?

[56gsa]

seems SBM not so confident about gold price maintaining its momentum... from an article in the age

Eddy - it may just be pure coincidence but my post back on 9 March about how SBM were re-hedging (and at US$800) was around the time that the sp topped out... i haven't tried to track down how much they have hedged but if it is a significant amount then i presume this reduces the upside for SBM

they're due to release a revised resource estimate this month - hopefully the steady decline isn't related to the results of this estimate ...

cheers

[tradingforwealth]

Eddy - it may just be pure coincidence but my post back on 9 March about how SBM were re-hedging (and at US$800) was around the time that the sp topped out... i haven't tried to track down how much they have hedged but if it is a significant amount then i presume this reduces the upside for SBM

they're due to release a revised resource estimate this month - hopefully the steady decline isn't related to the results of this estimate ...

cheers

when it was 98c the goldprice was over 1030us per ounce. Its just following the goldprice slide but a more exaggerated selling on SBM.

I don't want to make any predictions but i hope its up in 6months time and SBM delivers their promises :2twocents

[eddyeagle]

Just slightly more exaggerated!

Gold at $1030 is 17% above the current price of $880.

98 cents is 75% above 56 cents!

Yeah lets just hope they deliver and that the SP performance is better in the 2nd half of 2008 than it has been in the last three months!

[Uncle Festivus]

Just slightly more exaggerated!

Gold at $1030 is 17% above the current price of $880.

98 cents is 75% above 56 cents!



Which could mean it's oversold? I am still waiting to see how much collateral damage will be inflicted from the weakness in the general market, but starting to get in the 'zone' for me. I will still wait for Gwalia to be proven though?

[solomon]

Sometimes it helps just to tell someone you are hurting. I'm hurting on SBM, but it still seems to stack up on the fundamentals. Are there any chartists who could take a stab at support? To me it looks like no mans land ever since the break below the previous low.

[Uncle Festivus]

I don't claim to be a chartist, but my view is that although it has broken a support area, there appears to be forming a descending wedge, which is bullish?

[kennas]

I don't claim to be a chartist, but my view is that although it has broken a support area, there appears to be forming a descending wedge, which is bullish?Maybe, but you could just as easily draw that line through other parts of the S&R to get a pretty good downtrend channel UF without a wedge. Maybe just a wedge. You'd expect some pretty good support around that sideways move between 45-65 though. :2twocents

[solomon]

Thanks Uncle Festivus for the chart and analysis. Your chart confirms my gnawing concern that the technical support is anyone's guess ...

[solomon]

Well the gold price action overnight could be the thing that kicks SBM in a positive direction. I'm hoping so :o

[Uncle Festivus]

SBM kicking the tin again. Probably between 55-60c maybe?


St Barbara Limited – Request for 2 + 2 Trading Halt

St Barbara Limited (St Barbara) requests “back to back” trading halts for a
total of four (4) trading days pursuant to Listing Rule 17.1 to be implemented
immediately and announced through CAP this morning. For the purposes of
Listing Rule 17.1, St Barbara provides the following information:

a) As foreshadowed in St Barbara’s application to ASX for waivers on 2
June 2008, St Barbara is proposing to undertake a capital raising via
an accelerated entitlement offer. An announcement is expected to be
made today in this regard. The trading halts are required as St Barbara
will be making this announcement to the Exchange.

b) St Barbara requests that the trading halts continue until the opening of
trading on Monday 16 June 2008 unless St Barbara requests that the
trading halts be lifted before that time.

[oldblue]

SBM kicking the tin again. Probably between 55-60c maybe?

No, 2 for 7 issue at 40c ! with a big institutional placement component.
It seems to be becoming the fashion for companies to raise new capital in this fashion, diluting shareholders' interests by attracting institutional money at a discount.
I guess that's the only way they can obtain underwriting but it's not encouraging for retail shareholders.

:rolleyes:

[Uncle Festivus]

No, 2 for 7 issue at 40c ! with a big institutional placement component.
It seems to be becoming the fashion for companies to raise new capital in this fashion, diluting shareholders' interests by attracting institutional money at a discount.
I guess that's the only way they can obtain underwriting but it's not encouraging for retail shareholders.

:rolleyes:

Yep, jumped the gun a bit there. This explains a few things like why the SP was tanking for a while now. All along the insto's and those in the know (insiders) were offloading most likely? Still, it could be a good thing at 40c if the reserves are proven up and the update this month confirms it, as Ed has indicated. It's probably a better way than the interest rates they would have to pay otherwise, and the dilution shouldn't be detrimental if the reserves and production are to be ramped up as they have indicated?

[GoHardHomie]

Yep they're raising a fair whack of money - $100+ million from memory.

I never like to see my shareholding being diluted but i can sort of see the position they're in - need money but no one willing to lend it.

Here's hoping that they don't need to issue more shares for financing ever again (or when they do i hope it's at a multiple to its current sp)

And i do like how they have opted for a continuous halt, seems a smart way to negate some of the inevitable downdraft of the sp.

And my last hope (for this post anyways!) is that the sp reacts in the same style that Newcrest's did after their capital raising - up up and away!

Cheers to all

[whitta27]

heres a spreadsheet .
probably wrong but round about idea if u throw some figures into the cells in yellow.

whit

[VViCKiD]

is anyone taking up the retail offer on this one ? if so, do you know how to pay by bpay ? it doesn't really mention it in the prospectus.

[oldblue]

heres a spreadsheet .
probably wrong but round about idea if u throw some figures into the cells in yellow.

whit

Nice one, whitta!

Some interesting results. I tried some lower numbers in the P/E cell and could see the thinking behind today's apparently low SP.
I'll keep it on my watchlist though.

;)

[The Ferret]

This is BS.... smacked down to 38 cents in early trade.....:mad:

I knew it would take a hit when trading resumed... but this heavy??? Man...

[explod]

So who is going to take up thier entitlement when one can buy them on market at 38cents today. Opportunity for the big boys here. My holding is only small but it hurts.

[saichuen]

So who is going to take up thier entitlement when one can buy them on market at 38cents today. Opportunity for the big boys here. My holding is only small but it hurts.

Good point and that is exactly what I did. I have added more to my position at current price. Nice! ;)

[Ashsaege]

Good point and that is exactly what I did. I have added more to my position at current price. Nice! ;)

Yeh my portfolio is hurting at the moment, but a great time to pick up some more! I wander who would be selling out at the moment...

[prawn_86]

Tell me guys, why is now such a good time to pick more up?

Whats to say it wont go lower?

The last few posts have provided no analysis at all, and could be considered low content. Please provide reasonings for your opinions...

[Uncle Festivus]

Ouch - good bye weak hands - backing the truck up :D

[nick2fish]

I as well was somewhat shocked and dismayed at what I saw this morning. As an entitlement participant I always thought 2 for 7 wasn't going to be enough for me .... but with a nice little top up today I think it will be ;)

[kennas]

Ouch - good bye weak hands - backing the truck up :DLOL UF. :D Might be a good move on what looks to be fear and panick.

Got an objective reason as to why it's been sold off?

Just panick? Fear? Uncertainty?


Must remind myself of a classic quote:

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", or words to that effect.

Good luck! Truly.

[Uncle Festivus]

LOL UF. :D Might be a good move on what looks to be fear and panick.

Got an objective reason as to why it's been sold off?

Just panick? Fear? Uncertainty?


Must remind myself of a classic quote:

"The market can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent", or words to that effect.

Good luck! Truly.

Look at it this way - it's fully underwritten @ 40c, and those who are selling don't think it will go above 40c EVER again??? or panic selling or like cash better??? who knows, who cares?

It's not as if there's been a drastic production down grade to go hand in hand with the SP sell off, in fact the funds are going to be used for a dramatic UPGRADE if I have read it correctly.

This is as typical as you get, the oversold over reaction. If this SP isn't attractive to the punters then it's simple - don't buy it. I can see very good value at this price, based on the data available. FWIW ?

[kennas]

This is as typical as you get, the oversold over reaction. If this SP isn't attractive to the punters then it's simple - don't buy it. I can see very good value at this price, based on the data available. FWIW ?I agree, oversold, but I just can't help wondering sometimes when a stock tanks like this. I suppose the odds are an overreation and those buying on this fear will be rewarded.

Can't help think back to BDG though....eeeek!

Not saying they have similar projects, I just remember us ranting about the fundamentals and value all the way from $1.00 to 30c. On top of a capital raising around 80c? to institutions etc...

Hopefully SBM is a completely different kettle of fish!

[explod]

The point I was trying to hint at earlier is that at this price they may not get enough takers on the new issue. That banks at the moment dont' want anymore. OK to have the gold in the ground but you have to get it out. A takeover is what will loom large now and some of the bigger Co.s. are hungry for the stuff in the ground.

[nick2fish]

The point I was trying to hint at earlier is that at this price they may not get enough takers on the new issue. That banks at the moment dont' want anymore. OK to have the gold in the ground but you have to get it out. A takeover is what will loom large now and some of the bigger Co.s. are hungry for the stuff in the ground.

The question should be asked what is the price of a mining company that produces over 200k ounces per year ,certainly over 0.38c I would suggest IMO.(dependent of existing debt arrangements and gold price)
That is without the success of their fund raising's.
As I see it they are capital raising to fast track production capabilities resulting in a dramatic increase in gold produced. It is not to start up production or fund further exploration. Dilution should be compensated by sp re-rating given higher production. Takeover ?...bring it on I say

[Uncle Festivus]

The point I was trying to hint at earlier is that at this price they may not get enough takers on the new issue. That banks at the moment dont' want anymore. OK to have the gold in the ground but you have to get it out. A takeover is what will loom large now and some of the bigger Co.s. are hungry for the stuff in the ground.


Explod, the Offer is fully underwritten by Macquarie Capital Advisers Limited.

A takeover? Not that I have to convince you, but what value is a 10M oz resource??? 2.3Moz reserves, 300koz production for the next financial year, targeting 1Moz production by 2010 (which isn't that far away now) - going for 38c today? Is there a more compelling gold story going round? Subject to the POG of course :D.

[kennas]

Gents, we're all well above calling sp's as an indication of valuation, and in comparison to other stocks. Perhaps you might like to spalsh up a market cap? Before the offer they had about 800m on issue at @ .40 = $330m ish. How many more shares are they issuing in total which will dilute this value to ?? One thing is for certain though, their MC to oz au is getting pretty compelling. On the above figures (no raising) it's about $39 an oz, which for a producer is very low. Can you adjust the figures for a current MC to oz au at the projective shares on issue to current sp to current jorc? What's the value look like then?

[oldblue]

I would think the bad news from MON coming at this time is having an effect on the SBM SP. It doesn't help seeing another attempt to reactivate a mine fail, or at least be put on hold, when SBM is in the process of doing just that. The wobbly gold price isn't helping either when the company is looking to raise capital.
Not surprising that the SP is under pressure but the extent to which it is, is.

:cool:

Disc: Not holding, but interested.

[nioka]

SBM have gone "ex rights". Anyone with rights to buy at 40c can still profit by selling at todays 38c if they are making a loss on the ones they sell. Tax losses are probable if the shares had been bought at the higher prices. It is normal for there to be a rush of selling causing a drop in price after the shares go ex rights.
I would expect the price to improve from the 38c mark very quickly, maybe even today. On this assumption I have had a dabble in SBM while it is at these prices. Even though it is a week since the record date I suspect this is still the major cause for the drop although there are most likely other factors. June is a month where strange things happen.

[Uncle Festivus]

Gents, we're all well above calling sp's as an indication of valuation, and in comparison to other stocks. Perhaps you might like to spalsh up a market cap? Before the offer they had about 800m on issue at @ .40 = $330m ish. How many more shares are they issuing in total which will dilute this value to ?? One thing is for certain though, their MC to oz au is getting pretty compelling. On the above figures (no raising) it's about $39 an oz, which for a producer is very low. Can you adjust the figures for a current MC to oz au at the projective shares on issue to current sp to current jorc? What's the value look like then?

Kennas, some quick calcs shows that the equivalent share price dilution, all things being equal, should be around 43c, if you compare the data when the share price was at 56c to the SP now @38c ie anything lower than 43c is discounting the MC/ounces more than the dilution effects. (Do Your Own Calcs to confirm :()

Other notes - underwriter 'out' clauses - if spot price falls below $804 or S&P/ASX300 Resources falls more than 15% from date of underwriting agreement.

[nioka]

Kennas, some quick calcs shows that the equivalent share price dilution, all things being equal, should be around 43c, if you compare the data when the share price was at 56c to the SP now @38c ie anything lower than 43c is discounting the MC/ounces more than the dilution effects. (Do Your Own Calcs to confirm :()
Those calculations make no allowance for the extra cash raised. If the company intends to use the cash to increase production and that increase was not possible without the extra cash then the SP value need not be less than it was before the issue. The question is "will the new issue result in a profit increase proportional to the funds raised". On the information available I believe that will be the case and my target price is the 56c.

[Uncle Festivus]

Those calculations make no allowance for the extra cash raised. If the company intends to use the cash to increase production and that increase was not possible without the extra cash then the SP value need not be less than it was before the issue. The question is "will the new issue result in a profit increase proportional to the funds raised". On the information available I believe that will be the case and my target price is the 56c.

I think that's correct as I see it too - there is currently no 'premium' in the SP for upgrades or benefits of increased production? A sizable discount actually if the forecasts are correct.

[Go Nuke]

Does this give anyone a comparison?

Sorry I'm hopeless at this numbers thing.

IAU Mkt cap $134Mil
EPS -12.0, 1.2, 3.9, 14.0
P/E Ratio for sector 2.01
Total Debt18.467Mil

Producing approx 80,000 oz/yr at the Paulson gold Mine.
(Not taking into account the exploration in Argentina which is expected to hold 404,000 oz of gold equivalent {which includes 7.6 million ounces of silver} )

VS

SBM Mkt cap $557Mil
EPS 0.4, 0.6, 9.1, 15.1
P/E Ratio for sector 14.2 (<-- This is good right?)
Total Debt 99.811 Mil

Though it does look as though SBM are producing a heap more gold than IAU.

The Southern cross mine produced 171,000 oz for 2007 with a operating cost of between $525 and $550.
And Gwalia prospect to produce about 100,000 oz per year with a projected cost of about $405 per year.

Anyway, Im probably comparing Lemons with watermelons..lol.

[nioka]

A report from my contact in the area.
" St barbara took over a lot of the old Sons of Gwalia operations which had accumulated a considerable enviromental liability over the years. However they do have a good underground development project near Leanora with a good orebody at depth ( 1 km down). They have been pumping money into the decline to allow access to the ore. Not sure how far off planned completion is. I wouldn't mind betting that a larger organisation will take them over if this project proves as profitable as is thought. Apart from that I don't know much."

[jman2007]

I was lucky enough to have some spare time passing through Leonora today, so I poked my head into the Gwalia pit (there is a viewing platform). It is definitely one of the larger pits in the area, their new 800m primary vertical ventilation system was blasting happily away across the other side.

Pretty shocked to see this get a pounding in the market today...perhaps a bit of overreaction? I don't know much about their operations, but their cash costs per ounce from their last quaterly were fairly decent from their other underground operation, approx $530 or so.

They're predicting 5-6 g/t from Gwalia undergound once production commences, and they would need at least this to justify the enormous cost in constructing the decline over this distance, but at least they have some kind of track record for running an underground op successfully.

Definitely a terrible day for Oz Au miners though :eek:

jman (dnh)

[explod]

Explod, the Offer is fully underwritten by Macquarie Capital Advisers Limited.

going for 38c today? Is there a more compelling gold story going round? Subject to the POG of course :D.


Could not agree more, just wanted to draw some full discussion. Had to be out today but backing my truck ASAP also.

[VViCKiD]

hopefully the pog tonight will lift the sp tommorow .... :rolleyes:
i bought 20000 @ $0.65 :banghead:
only if i was 3 weeks late... damn !

[56gsa]

attached spreadsheet with numbers for new shares issued and new monies raised - suggests if you add cash to mkt cap the price should be 0.52

however there's no announcement to say these additional funds will increase production (infact they announced a slight decrease and slight increase in cash cost) - thus you get what one broker suggested was a 22% dilution... giving a price of 0.44. Also you get .43 if you divide mkt cap b4 placement with new number of shares (ie not taking into account extra cash) -- so overall a range between 43-52.

This is all based on a pre-placement mkt cap @ 56 cents/share... but i suspect the sell down before announcement was because those in the know knew... before the sell down the sp was 70 cents. So this gives a different range of 54 to 63 cents after the placements.

i seem to recall that SBM were announcing a new resource statement this month

also gold is going bezzurk atm :eek:

trouble is i'm going away next monday - what if i don't get my offer sheet - thinking i may as well buy on market?? :confused:

[explod]

hopefully the pog tonight will lift the sp tommorow .... :rolleyes:
i bought 20000 @ $0.65 :banghead:
only if i was 3 weeks late... damn !

Well I had a dip in to seek for the longer term at .71 back a bit, so dont' feel too bad. But got a good parcel today at .385 I think (imho) that we will be pleased with SBM by the start of 2009.