CLF - Community Life

[Nathan_b]

Hey all,
Just thought id drop a line and ask what everyone thinks of this company. here is there website. www.communitylife.com.au it is a company which has old age care facilities opening around nsw and qld at present, shares coming afloat on next week, thought it looks like a interesting stock, initial price is $1.00 a share. paying a dividend.

[kooka1956]

Hey all,
Just thought id drop a line and ask what everyone thinks of this company. here is there website. www.communitylife.com.au it is a company which has old age care facilities opening around nsw and qld at present, shares coming afloat on next week, thought it looks like a interesting stock, initial price is $1.00 a share. paying a dividend.
Good morning Nathan . In my other life I happen to be an entertainer for senior citizens . Each year from now to 2026 there will be an additional 10,000 seniors on average reaching 80 years old. i.e. in 2026 their will be an additional 200,000 plus people at this age or above (researched this field four years ago .Aust Bureau of Stastics Info.) This is because of the baby boomers "maturing" and advances in medical technology .Not all will require a home to live in as Governments are spending a lot on HACC (home and community care) trying to keep people as much as possible in their own homes but certainly it is a growing field . Prime Life 10 years ago ran perhaps only a half dozen facilities , it is now over 60 . It is a growing industry , and if they do their homework , will make steadily increasing turnover . Regards KOOKA

[ghotib]

Hi Kooka: Snap!! I too entertain and am entertained by senior cits. What's your act - I'm a singer and choir director.

Nathan, there's no question about the expanding market, though as a fairly early baby boomer I think people are a bit premature in their excitement - i don't see myself in retirement accomodation for at least 20 years. I'm interested in Community Life's rental model - it's a cleaner and much more predictable income stream than the deferred management fee system used by a lot of retirement villages. The difficulty appears to be that income is directly tied to the government aged pension, and there's no guarantees about how adequate that will be to cover costs, let alone generate an acceptable return on your investment dollar over the long term.

I should declare a bias here. I think public companies are an inappropriate vehicle for aged care. I know Community Life is a housing company, not a nursing home or a care facility, but as people get older the line between housing and care gets very blurry. I'd expect costs to rise faster than the pension for all the services Community Life now provides, and they're already high enough that the services in many privately held and not-for-profit aged care services are compromised. There's not much economy of scale in personal services, and that's what the elderly need (as do small children; I don't like child care companies either). I just don't see any way for this industry to generate an acceptable return to shareholders without lowering the quality of services to its customers below what I want to accept for myself or my family.

Still, I haven't read the prospectus. Go through the numbers yourself and see what you think.

Good luck,

Ghoti

[Bingo]

We also have Aevum listing on Thursday. This was previously the Hibernian Building Society. Any comments on how it's model compares with community life?

Bingo

[ghotib]

We also have Aevum listing on Thursday. This was previously the Hibernian Building Society. Any comments on how it's model compares with community life?

Bingo
Were you asking me that? I can't answer: I did take a look at the website, but couldn't get to the prospectus and I couldn't get enough information from the site alone. I know that village accomodation is one of their offerings, but I don't know anything about the payment methods.

Cheers,

Ghoti

[kooka1956]

Hi Ghotib . I have forwarded a private email re. current employment .Regards KOOKA

[Bingo]

CLF floated 19 Nov 2004 and had a first day close of 98c. They have had steady falls since which is really a bad sign.

On 12 Dec 2004 they released a statement saying that their prospectus forecast for 2004/2005 was on track and they expected that they would meet the prospectus forecast dividend which was 6.5c franked. On 12 Dec a Director bought 20,000 shares at 80.3c and on 20 Dec another Director bought 20,000 shares at 84.0c.

These are positive signs. On a current forecast franked yield of 7.9% (market price 82c) they look a great investment.

I am however nervous and just watching.

Has anyone any information or comments on this one.

Bingo

[louie]

Another Director has brought 17,500 shares today, -- 11th Jan 2005. At $0.83. Do you think they might know something we don't. Very interesting, must keep an eye out.

[tech/a]

$15000 worth of shares is a token jesture.

If there was something cooking they would mortgage the house.

Wouldnt you!

Charts rather ho hum.Just settling.

[Bingo]

I guess the point I make is nothing needs to be on. If this company simply makes the prospectus forecasts then it will go up to around $1.00

On the other hand the price dip may point to going out the back door. I think the key issue with this share is the quality of management and the directors. More about can they be trusted?

Anyone know anything about their past?

Bingo

[stockman]

Stock that has been forgotten will pay 6.5 cents per share fully franked based on a share price of I reckon you'd get it at 58.5cents 11.1% fully franked.

They are a retirement village with $15 million in cash. No brokers do any reports on the stock as it is too small and no one really knows anything about it. It listed in November.

Cash is in the bank for dividend to be paid in october.


Any thoughts? I think it is undervalued NTA was 53 cents last time i checked.

Looks good. :2twocents

[stockman]

Anyone got any thoughts? :bier:

[silent knight]

Their Half year report seemed to make them interesting, which is where I guess you got your information. Huntley gives their NTA at 24c. I'm inclined to wait and watch as the div is only a forecast div, not locked in. Still it is interesting.

[stockman]

The dividend is pretty much a certainty from what i've heard from management. BBY the brokers that floated them will have a report soon, which will point out that they've done even BETTER than their prospectus forcasts as the Bendigo Village wasn't even in their plans!!

The 10% - 11% fully franked yield is a certainty !!

Directors have bought little parcels around the mid 80 cent mark you can get the stock at 60 cents or maybe even a little cheaper.

Most brokers are basing their NTA and figures like EPS only on their first half results what needs to be taken into account is their next half, which give CLF an NTA of 53 cents. EPS of about 11 as well not 5.5 or 4.5 that some research houses are posting. :D Time will tell but if you've got a little cash that you can use to get in before october i'd be buying.

I own a fair amount of the stock at around the 60 cent level. :2twocents

[stockman]

up 3% today on small volume one good announcment and its back to 80 cents.

Do your own research.

[Fleeta]

Stockman you must be Chicken's brother!

[stockman]

who the hell is chicken?

and what has he got to do with the stock community life?

[Fleeta]

Sorry stockman if you are not chicken. I was thrown off by the 'do your own research' comment, which seems to be chicken's catch cry as well.

So you aren't chicken, but how do I know you are stockman and not stockwoman? That is the question...

Off the topic...what do you think the male/female ratio is in here? I reckon it would have to be 90/10...does anybody agree that the share market and trading is something that appeals more to men than it does to women?

[stockman]

CLF establishing property trust to capitalise on growing market. Another announcement. 6.5 cents per share seems to be a capital return not a dividend. capital return of 11.2% !!! Get in the stock looks a great long term story at very cheap current levels!

[Warren Buffet II]

CLF establishing property trust to capitalise on growing market. Another announcement. 6.5 cents per share seems to be a capital return not a dividend. capital return of 11.2% !!! Get in the stock looks a great long term story at very cheap current levels!

Not even for a 11.2% return you should get into that share, look how many people are buying (close to nil 6 buyers at the moment), you'll be lucky if you can sell it at any price.

[seaurchin]

if i did not own the stock already i would advise my mother to buy it..I would specualte that it may take till near sept for the stock to gain interest..
I would say specualtive but not as h/risk as some others ...property trust will give this some ''PROFILE and exposure to FUnds managers ...as it very low market capitaised it won't grab alot of attention but this move is better for CLF anyway...and you never know what investors want ..buy low sell high!

[skin]

Off the topic...what do you think the male/female ratio is in here? I reckon it would have to be 90/10...does anybody agree that the share market and trading is something that appeals more to men than it does to women?
I believe it'd be a lot higher - any statistics available on the members?

[seaurchin]

i justwanted to addd ....56s area it moves up to near 62s plus?
check historical orders and chart shows this could move ance again when dust settles
thats all i have to say...cheers

[stockman]

I agree. $1.6 million dollars is what clf inteads to pay out. if they were to simply only pay out $800,000 and buy back shares with the remaining 800,000 I believe that the stock will rise to at least 75 cents +. As having a floor of 1,600,000 will definately put a floor on the stock.

Market depth will change dramatically on both sides very quickly Warren Buffett II have a look at the price of this stock in October.

[stockman]

i've put a fishing bid in at 30 cents, it never hurts. with investors emotions i may be able to pick up 10,000 hopefully

[TjamesX]

I don't know much about CLF - did a little bit of digging.

I seems as if the Managing Director and CEO of CLF is Theo Baker. He founded another company that listed on the ASX called Powerlan (PWR), he has since recently resigned as chairman of PWR - have a look at the chart history of PWR.

Call me a bit cynicle but it seems as if PWR (IT industry) was listed at an opportunistic time and was able to generate pretty good stag profits, since then reality has hit the price. Was the CLF listing an opportunistic move at the recently pumped up aged health care industry?? - obviously it has not been as successful. I also tend to think that the large dividend payout that was mentioned in the prospectus was largely there to generate interest in the company and stag profits for the founders on listing - it may not have anything to do with the companies ability to generate earnings and payout at this ratio in the future (I could be wrong).

I would also be concerned about the Theo's ability to transfer knowledge of the IT industry (PWR) and its synergies/relevance with aged health care (CLF)??

Note - all this does is put a question mark over management and founders, it does not mean the current price represents good/bad value

TJ

[seaurchin]

tjames coments very fair to think that about clf..as PWR was a flopp in good times...property related CLF...hence main reason share price effected and others in sector notably VLL, PLF, ....before this announcement today the buying interest ws better in clf than most others the chart showed some higher lows and actually reached 65-67s daily has not touched this for sometime...however this news could be opportunty to get in hold wait for storm to pass.
companies like CLF who actually have a business up and running and have to pay tax then should meet forecasts or just lower ..however i agree someone in this company needs to do some major PR with some brokers who are interested in these sectors...fly by night don't think so.. fingers xxx we see Market buying from some big boys ...do you know anyonei nterested ??cheers

[stockman]

Thanks for your comments you are right about management I'm still not sure about them. I don't think paying out $1.6 million dollars right now is the right thing to do unless you are 100% sure you'll be right in the future.

Like i said above pay out half and buy back shares with the remainer is there a minimum amount of shares a company can buy?

I still believe it is a good buy as if it gets cheaper it'll get bought out eventually anyway.

[seaurchin]

depth of orders will change according market volatility...importantly in low volume stock it can be orchestrated if someone with large amoiunt is buying or selling...influencing the stocks DIRECTION ...could be panick selling ..sell is the word now .....contrarian buy on others fear ? whos right...key word is TIME...TIME in the market ....you often hear Fin /planner say that...sure
today buyers seem to think will mid 50s hold..sell out down here ...buy low ..sell higher...is that how shares work in theory..?

[stockman]

i think your right seurchin VOLUME seems to have returned now bargin buying if you get some stock people are lining up at 50 cents and a little bit less now and are just hoping.

[Joe Blow]

i think your right seurchin VOLUME seems to have returned now bargin buying if you get some stock people are lining up at 50 cents and a little bit less now and are just hoping.

Come on guys... stop bumping this thread with these kinds of posts.

The reality of today's CLF trading is that around $40,000 worth of shares have changed hands and the price has declined around 2%. This is similar to yesterday's trading so volume is not actually 'back'.

Also, people are not lining up at 50 cents. In fact, there's less than 150,000 shares on the entire buy side for CLF today (well 10 levels deep anyway).

I don't mind you presenting your case for CLF but please only comment on market action if it's significant.

And today's action is not significant.

[stockman]

This is probably relevant one buyer has had enough 100,000 parcel up for sale at 56 cents.

It doesn't look very good.

[stockman]

When a stock trades on average only 40,000 probably a day and you wanted to sell 100,000 why would you put a bid in of 100,000 as it is 100% sure that the market will see this figure and push the price down.

Do you guys think that people are doing this are just trying to push the stock down or are just stupid.

Anyhows i've gone out on a limb with this stock and i think i may have it totally wrong at that moment. Will be speaking to management late next week will keep you posted,

[Warren Buffet II]

Do you guys think that people are doing this are just trying to push the stock down or are just stupid.


They are actually smart, there are trying to get rid of the shares as soon as possible. (placed in the queue)

[seaurchin]

same..feel the sellers have panicked out here..we've been given a time frame for expected dividend...If the company want to buy shares cheaper then this is the way ..and time Pacifica a friend of mine bought that he's in same boat losing heaps..EPS down ..Clf eps?? change to propertytrust is good ?? why the fall.
npat ..lower than forecast but still making money on pensions of 85%secured.
anyway lets see.. brokers BBY phone 03 9226 0000 may be they know something we don't!

[stockman]

Warren Buffet II if you have 100,000 shares that you want to sell and the share price of your stock has been falling constantly you never place a big order in. You slowly nibble away! They will not get their stock sold, they will only push the market down as evident today.

[stockman]

same..feel the sellers have panicked out here..we've been given a time frame for expected dividend...If the company want to buy shares cheaper then this is the way ..and time Pacifica a friend of mine bought that he's in same boat losing heaps..EPS down ..Clf eps?? change to propertytrust is good ?? why the fall.
npat ..lower than forecast but still making money on pensions of 85%secured.
anyway lets see.. brokers BBY phone 03 9226 0000 may be they know something we don't!

Hey can you give them a call and find out what they say i've just had my wisdom teeth out so i can't bloody talk. Post it on here at least if they know anything we can get out of the thing. as at the moment i'm holding on.

13.5 % capital return makes no sense for stock to be falling??

It might be Warren Buffett II who is selling the 100,000 share parcel.

[stockman]

Down over 12% today. 6.5 cents capital back 14% yield anyone know why it is falling so quickly??

That 100,000 seller has pushed the market down severley.

[daaussie]

Personally, I think that it is a funny situation which doesn't make sense. Perhaps there is something which we don't know. Perhaps the sellers are paniking. but hey, that's life.

In my humble opinion, I'd take a look at stocks like NMS which are heading North with a lot of potential and high announcement turnover.

Best luck with CLF and go NMS!

[stockman]

Thanks for your comments DA i will take a look at it. This stock CLF has been my worse result in 6 years trading stocks. I haven't seen anything fall this much on no news at all. I got a friend to call BBY the IPO brokers they no longer do any research on the stock. Therefore i've got no idea how the stock has fallen so heavily?

Still huge capital return and they've got 13 million in the bank. Big sellers still in the market compared to what it usually trades. However, I think at 40 cents it must either be very cheap or it is certainly :goodnight

Good luck.

[seaurchin]

to Stockman & others who hurt...i've been trading since 1996...with losses but much more winners so in front...Firstly...i bought 20k Silex .it went terribly wrong lost 70% capital in aday ...its joint venture disolved and holder juped and rightly so...I could not get out unless selling @ 40cents when i bought 140s...20k worth. Well it reached oversold area and buyers came and i traded the daylights out of it over next year ..with it rising back and i actually made money instead of losing ...lucky? well maybe.
Clf is down for me some 40% ...i have a reasonable holding ..This is with EPS in first half ...but now it looks ordinary..even with the expecation of 6.5cents
...Silex had a historical chart that we could see bottom i guess ..Clf does not NO HISTORY ITS OBVIOUS COS IT ONLY FLOATED NOT LONG AGO.THERE HAS TO BE AN OVERSOLD AREA ...SOON. '''i COULD BE WRONG ..AND IS THIS CLOSING DOWN ..GOING BELLY UP ...THIS WAS MEANT TO BE DEFENSIVE ,LESS VOLATILE ...IF IT DOES CLOSE I BELIVEIN karma...IT WILL COME BACK TO THEM IF THEY DECIEVED THE PUBLIC OR THE asx DID NOT INTERVENE EARLY ENOUGH....I COULD ALWAYS GO BACK TO OLD SCHOOL..CHEERS ...VISIT HEAD OFFICE ASK AROUND GET SOME ANSWERS ..ITS YOUR MONEY ..IF THEY ILLEGALLY DECIEVE US TAKE ACTION

[stockman]

seaurchin i agree. What ever you do don't sell yet i'm going to find out some info about the stock by the end of next week. We will be either buying more or selling out at that time.

43.5 cents mamma mia unbelievable Theo Baker can't sell his shares on market for two years I wonder what price he will get then? All we need is one fund manager really. Interesting that CLF is a partner with Macquarie, Macquarie do all the finanical planning for CLF clients and CLF makes a quid out of it. However, Macquarie don't hold any shares as of yet probably not a good sign but it'll be interesting i think when they do. Macquaire haven't got anything in this sector have they?? And Macquaire like to get their fingers into everything emerging at a cheap price. Recently did with Novera. Will be interesting if they do the same here.

[seaurchin]

stockman ..have nice weekend after such delemma with CLF..as i type the stocks 46...little relief and bargain hunters ...as we've poured capital in earlier its hard to buy more immediately...althought i did do when silex dropped 70%...err call it a week and hope sense comes back...
cheers .....just for wwhat its worth between you and i ...IGO,IBT
if pull back enough are worth entering about 120s igo ..ibt..150.abouts noliability just have Bell potter buys 2 ratings and i'm close to them..
the CLF...was a choice of my own and terribly wrong to buy it @ 90-85-70-57....talk soon thanks

[stockman]

Thanks for the tip.

Clf up just over 8% today. I think it is something I should've just traded. Good trading opportunites have been presented with this stock constantly.

Can put in fishing bids in low 40's and sell at high 40's.

With small cap stocks do you guys think it is better to trade the stock than to hold?

I've traded DKN and other small cap stocks and i've found that i make more trading than holding the stock no matter what the news is. Thoughts appreciated.

Got an email back from management and they have no idea why share is trading under it's NTA!!

[stockman]

guys i think the stock only has one hurdle the dude that wants to sell $56,000 worth at 56 cents once we wipe him out I think the nerves will settle.

[Ken]

this stock is nowhere!