ADY - Admiralty Resources

[el_ninj0]

I'd just like to know peoples thoughts on ADY, seems as though its had a good run lately. Dropped back a bit in the past week or so.

[RichKid]

Have you seen the breakouts thread? techA posted a chart on it, thought it may be good for starters (unless that's where you saw it, in which case sorry for stating the obvious).

[bailej03]

Hey all,

I am sure most of you have heard a lot about ADY on other forums but if not this could well be worth a look.

Production of Iron Ore from an existing set of mines in Chile should begin either Sept/Oct/Nov depending on equipment orders.

Rincon Salar, to begin producing in June 06 before ramping up to major production over the next couple of years.

Will be producing Iron Ore, Lithium chloride, potassium chloride, sodium sulphate and boric acid.

At 12c, appears cheap as chips imho, apparently been sold down by a dodgy holder in Index options. They have just been wound up and now, maybe any runs upwards won't be buried as quickly as they begun. PM for more info if you like.

[bailej03]

Imho, getting ready to boom. Index options have been selling this down since May. They brought 34M in May and where of the register in June, but back on for another 12M in July. They haven't been getting these shares cheaply and dumping them, and most likely haven't made a profit out of ADY. They now appear to have been wound up for good:

http://www.search.asic.gov.au/cgi-bin/gns030c?acn=093614558&juris=9&hdtext=ACN&srchsrc=1

With these guys off our back, it may be about time we begin to see a re-rating of ADY. Remember this thing ran to 23c, and bounded big time again to 17c, before Index came on the seen. If these guys are finally out it may be time for some movement without the selldown stopping it short.

Iron Ore should be on-line soon. Initially producing from 3Mt fines stockpiles which should make initial profit margins very nice.

Rincon ramping up from June next year.

Imho, a buy and hold for future production.

[Aden_1]

They look the goods. A lot of trading happening right now.
Im buying in. 16,000 shares $0.125 = $2400.00

It's a great opportunity.

[Aden_1]

Jumped up before i could get them!
15,000 @ 14.5 purchased this morning!

There is sooo much demand for this stock! After reading their site. And some perspecitves on it.

P/S Growth ratio = 2,743.40
P/B ratio = 12.41

[bailej03]

Yeah they do seem to have a great future coming up. Unfourtunately looks like to may have been another pump and dump, this stocks a traders favourite. Anyway, close at 13.5c hopefully just traders getting out over w/e, depth looks weak now, could be back at 12c b4 u know it, but you never know, it could be a different picture Monday morning.

[kerosam]

why would you think it'll drop?

[bailej03]

Well it did get sold down after opening and then climbing to 15c. Could just be traders getting out over w/e. Fundamentally, I like the story and think once we are producing Iron Ore, price should probably be above 20c. Question is when that market will rate ADY and stop thinking its a risky venture. I had been in ADY for a while, and looking back at the trading history suggests its another pump and dump. Maybe with Index options gone and offshore buying rumoured, there is a re-rating in progress. See what Monday brings.

[Aden_1]

HEy bailej03,

Id love any extra info you have on these guys!
I was a bit upset i got them at 0.145 - then they slipped to 0.135

Im looking to buy in some more. Or possibly sell in the next big rise. Then buy back in on a low.... to secure more shares... then hold till they start to mine.

Whats the go with the report on their site about their POTENTIAL value sitting at.... $1.73 per share...

Thanks mate..

[Aden_1]

What happens when millions of shares are wanting to be purchased... BUT only half as many want to sell!!!!!

[bailej03]

Manipulation mate!!! The bastards play ADY like a fiddle. I try and go with them when I am in front of the puter but generally just get your hopes on for nothing. One day though, it will smash through 15-16c and then keep going as the market over-reactions al la March. Unless good news is one the way, then its probably best to wait for the inevitable re-trace. Last news was not meet by a rise suggesting management now remains very tight lipped, unlike earlier in the year when it ran very hard!

Imho, a very good share to have a piece of.

I wouldn't read much into that $1.73 valuation. A bit of a long shot and from what I have heard, it did much more damage than good. A one of their presentations the methods used where criticised for which management had no very much to say in their defence. Anyway, that’s beyond us now!

Iron Ore for between 1.5-3Mt p/a will begin ramping up to production anytime now from Sep - October. Lets hope the plant arrives tomorrow! Contract in place and Phil said he would be trying to maximise value by selling on the spot market when and where possible.

A few good sites to look at, hopefully Joe doesn't mind:

www.topstocks.com.au - Phil Thomas, MD, under 'CEO Spotlight' uncovering a lot of good information.

Some good research also done on SS.

Rincon should be producing this time next year and has contracts in place for minor products. Lithium contracts have been rumoured to be around the corner.

Hope this helps your decision. If I were in your shoes, I pick up a few at these prices just in case, but what for it to drop eventually on no news.

Cheers

James

[bailej03]

Check this out Aden, first research report on ADY:

Base valuation 48c, 12 month target 25c!!

http://www.mpsecurities.com.au/pubs/index.asp?page=2005

[Aden_1]

Thanks for that!! Very much appreciated! A really great read!

I bought in at 14.5 cents last week...
As it was going up each day! i just jumped on in! silly me!

But, i now have 15,000 shares. so im happy.
Its still trading right on 14.5 cents.

I just ask my self whether its worth buing more!?

[bailej03]

Of course its worth buying more!, question is wheter or not the price is right. Strong buying today, particularly when they could have easily let it slip to 13.5c and accumulate some more. Who knows, good manipulation or somebody looking to get in. If we sustain 14c for a few more days then imho, sp will probably break out with a bit of good buying (mainpulation??) 20c at least.

Good to see you got onboard anyway. Let's hope she lives up to her potential.

[Aden_1]

Oh.. she will!!
Lithium is the next big thing. and they have plenty of that to mine!!

Hmm...
Hopefully i can round up another 2k investment before it gets too high!

[bailej03]

Yeah its looking better. News in the wings??

MTM converting another 25M should ensure no immediate cash flow issues. Hopefully if they intend to offload, they have some other willing buyers lined up and won't dump on market - wouldn't expect it, they are certainly longer term considering they took no profits above 20c.

Potenital announcements driving the northward move?

September could see:

-Iron Ore Plant delievered

-JORC completed for Japenesa properties

-Lithium uptake???

-Evaluation/Purchase of surrounding properties?

Good times ahead imho, 14.5c looks rock solid. I don't think traders bother playing things this long, they'd be in and out like the past. This looks like it, a realisation of the potential of ADY!

Good Luck Holders

[bailej03]

Well ADY powering ahead today. Anybody else got onboard?

No News yet, but holding up nicely and once the ADRs commence around the 26th, we should see good support for ADY and very limited downside. If it retraces back to 16c on no news then its an excellent buying oppurtunity imho.

[brisvegas]

ADY is at an interesting level now with the downside trend appearing to have ended . couple good announcements this month have been met with selling into the buyers , i suspect this is due to overhang from recent placement to financiers to meet interest obligations , unfortunately ADY issued the shares at a substansial discount to market price . once this overhang is through we could see advance to recent highs . i'm thinking maybe half through so far . chart looks better in recent weeks with the downtrend breached . small gap to fill at 10.5c . nice support confirmed at april lows 9cents ish .

[brisvegas]

seems listing in US wont hurt either

[brisvegas]

ADY is at an interesting level now with the downside trend appearing to have ended . couple good announcements this month have been met with selling into the buyers , i suspect this is due to overhang from recent placement to financiers to meet interest obligations , unfortunately ADY issued the shares at a substansial discount to market price . once this overhang is through we could see advance to recent highs . i'm thinking maybe half through so far . chart looks better in recent weeks with the downtrend breached . small gap to fill at 10.5c . nice support confirmed at april lows 9cents ish .

going by volumes id say overhang pretty well through , taken position in anticipation of selling to dissipate .

................. pete

[brisvegas]

seems listing in US wont hurt either

Roasdshow in US next week . couple large buys today , starting to get traction . next week may be good

presentation links in this ASX link

http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/announcementSearch.do?method=searchByCode&issuerCode=ady&timeFrameSearchType=D&releasedDuringCode=W&x=25&y=7


.............. pete

[stockmeister]

Anybody here been watching ADY?

Production of iron ore has just commenced. Currently producing 25K tonnes per month. This is to increase to 125K tonnes in the next couple of months (once the processing plant comes online) which will provide some very nice cashflow.

IMO at current price of 9.5c ADY is very undervalued. Downside risk has been mitigated now that production has commenced.
This stock is due for a re rating very shortly

[markrmau]

Shipment to the cement maker is good. (Cement clinker 2-3% Fe ore), but still would like to see iron ore for steel making.

When we finally see shiment o/s of iron ore, 10c ady will be just a memory.

Also with crude possibly moving upwards from 70$, hybrid / electric cars will be focussed on. Then the rechargeable battery market will really rocket (Li, K)

[barney]

CFO just bought $70 odd thousand worth of shares. That would indicate???? This stock is way undervalued. Chart is a bit ugly at the moment, but next couple of weeks will be very interesting. ADY maybe not as "exciting" as some other stocks, but this will be a buy opportunity very soon. Been watching closely for a while now; big boys have been playing the stock down......wont be long..........keep it in your black book ;)

[rub92me]

Spotted by barney as a possible breakout. Volume again today, market maybe expecting they are close to a sales contract?

[watsonc]

Production due to commence soon. Looking at the chart, the stock is consolidating. Should see it only go up from here!

[rub92me]

Two interesting announcements the last couple of days.

1) Contract negotiations for take off of iron ore with customers in final stages, due to complete in next 3-4 weeks.
2) Testing on Rincon Salar indicates that quote: "A new JORC study of reserves will be completed now that the porosity is known to be more than three times higher than previously estimated, inferring a much larger resource than previously thought."

Looks like management is finally getting their act together. Interesting times ahead mehopes. :D (note: my tip for the competition!)

[rub92me]

Interesting move by the MD Philip Thomas, who chose to exercise 3.5 million 10 cent options on 28 Nov, when the share was trading for 9.3-9.5 cents, meaning he was out of pocket by $21,000. In the past the directors have been a bit generous with giving themselves options, so for me as a shareholder this restores some confidence in their credibility.

[bvbfan]

Certainly that sort of purchase on the market would have not been possible under 10c and brokerage costs too

[rub92me]

Certainly that sort of purchase on the market would have not been possible under 10c and brokerage costs too
That's some expensive broker you have! :eek: Could have easily be done spread out over a week with parcels of 250,000, estimated brokerage costs of $300 for me...

[rub92me]

Massive buy orders in pre-open, suggesting that this will open over 10 cents today. Something brewing here?

[rub92me]

Looks like it will gap up again today at 11 cents. Still enormous resistance in the 10-12 cent zone, so will probably need > 50 million shares traded today to get it through there. 3 positive announcements in a row; if it doesn't happen now, it ain't gonna happen in the foreseeable future :(

[barney]

Looks like it will gap up again today at 11 cents. Still enormous resistance in the 10-12 cent zone, so will probably need > 50 million shares traded today to get it through there. 3 positive announcements in a row; if it doesn't happen now, it ain't gonna happen in the foreseeable future :(

Good luck to you "Rubberman" .... I used to own a lot of ADY till I had to finance all my debts :eek7: Its a good Co. with sound management Imo, so hope you make a few dollars, Barney.

[rub92me]

Thanks barney. The short-term concern (sufficient cash flow) now seems to be addressed. I'm still not 100% convinced about management; e.g. the timing of the last announcement seemed a bit 'staged' to me, as it was something they knew 3 weeks ago. I bought this with a 3-5 year horizon as I do like the potential of Rincon Salar. Short-term it finally cracked the 12 cent resistance with good volume, so here's hoping it can consolidate above that for a while...

[johnno261]

Thanks barney. The short-term concern (sufficient cash flow) now seems to be addressed. I'm still not 100% convinced about management; e.g. the timing of the last announcement seemed a bit 'staged' to me, as it was something they knew 3 weeks ago. I bought this with a 3-5 year horizon as I do like the potential of Rincon Salar. Short-term it finally cracked the 12 cent resistance with good volume, so here's hoping it can consolidate above that for a while...

I accumulated ADY's in the 8's and 9's a few months back and have no intentions of selling with roughly a 80% profit. Why? On many occassions I have conversed with PT in at 200 Queen St, whether in the lifts or in the foyer and he always appears to be a heads down bum up type of man. Todays ann. in relation to the reliable transportation Contracts signed with HK based company on top of yesterdays announcements regarding the Big Chinese Based Steel Co. now in my opinion give credibilty to my assumption of PT and I know short term, a revaluation on ADY is imminent. My current valuation based on 3.6mtpa as stated in todays financial review article would conservatively value the SP at roughly 35 cents and that is being conservative. However as PT stated in today AFR article, if 5mtpa is obtained well upside from 35 cents is a definite.
DYOR as I have and you will soon see why this will be rerated shortly!!

[johnno261]

A LITHIUM SUPPLY CRISIS

www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27139

[johnno261]

A LITHIUM SUPPLY CRISIS

www.resourceinvestor.com/pebble.asp?relid=27139

Here I am getting excited about the Rincon Lithium project, when having just read thru yesterdays article in the financial review about ADY's Iron Ore JV, really that could be a huge play in itself. The JV with Sth American based Cia Minera Sanata Barbara in itself may have all 9 Iron Ore mines up and running by mid this year which could be shipping up to 5mtpa once the new port that the companys has just secured the rights to build from the Chile governement is in operation. The Iron Ore fines are also extremely high qualitys at about 64%, pretty much the same quality as on Koolan Isl.
PT stated that by building the port, it will increase profits by US $46.8 million a year based on the lower assumption of 3.6mtpa.

[johnno261]

Here I am getting excited about the Rincon Lithium project, when having just read thru yesterdays article in the financial review about ADY's Iron Ore JV, really that could be a huge play in itself. The JV with Sth American based Cia Minera Sanata Barbara in itself may have all 9 Iron Ore mines up and running by mid this year which could be shipping up to 5mtpa once the new port that the companys has just secured the rights to build from the Chile governement is in operation. The Iron Ore fines are also extremely high qualitys at about 64%, pretty much the same quality as on Koolan Isl.
PT stated that by building the port, it will increase profits by US $46.8 million a year based on the lower assumption of 3.6mtpa.

I just did a little research on the freighting company just to tie up and taking into account every detail of the production/supply chain. Company operates a large number of freight ships which specialize in mining industry freighting and the average age of their entire fleet is 5 years, so reliability wont be an issue which is of extreme importance when the big boys can deliver on time and with reliable service.
All looks set for a big week for ADY and a few of my other Iron Ore plays that i believe will shine in 2007,being GBG,MGX,MMX!!
Good luck to everyone!!

[IGO4IT]

[QUOTE=johnno261] now in my opinion give credibilty to my assumption of PT and I know short term, a revaluation on ADY is imminent. My current valuation based on 3.6mtpa as stated in todays financial review article would conservatively value the SP at roughly 35 cents and that is being conservative. QUOTE]

Hi Johnno,

the 35c you mentioned, was that the FR prediction or your calculated value? in both cases, could you pls briefly tell us how did you come up with that value? I tried many times but couldn't come up with anything near that value.

I hold small parcel & even that current levels seem to attract many buyer but also its attracting many big sellers, so I'm really trying to re-evaluate my position.

cheers,

[johnno261]

Yeah that was a FR prediction which to me gives alot of discrepancies, however I do feel that now that PT has delivered also within the near term I feel that the market will start to add speculation into the share price on the basis that Phils delivered on The iron ore so Rincon Salar can be slightly speculated upon. Hope you know where I am coming from?
Cheers
Johnno

[johnno261]

GREAT WEEK OF CONSOLIDATION FOR ADY

ADY seems to have slightly retraced back to 11.5 with a continued strong move up whilst pushing out the stale bears that have been in this for 2 years whilst stagnant. Perusing a 3 year chart looks as if we are all on the up and up now that Phils Iron Ore Deals have come to fruition and with a steady income which will now help fund the next big phase, being the World Class Lithium "Rincon Salar" project. Consolidation after the quick run up from 9cents to 15.5 was needed.

[rub92me]

Well, here's the 2 year weekly chart. 3 year is a bit misleading because it doubled in Jan 05 - Feb 05 and then slowly declined from there. It finally turned the corner in the past 2 weeks though and good to see some consolidation around 0.12. I won't get excited until it breaks through 0.20 though, and that will need a lot of volume, because resistance is stacked heavily all the way to that...

[johnno261]

Well, here's the 2 year weekly chart. 3 year is a bit misleading because it doubled in Jan 05 - Feb 05 and then slowly declined from there. It finally turned the corner in the past 2 weeks though and good to see some consolidation around 0.12. I won't get excited until it breaks through 0.20 though, and that will need a lot of volume, because resistance is stacked heavily all the way to that...
Dont ever read too much into Market Depth, as in my opinion, "Market Depth is a playground of Manipulation",nothing more nothing less!!
Great chart RUB92ME!! As stated before,consolidation of the past week has been great for the continued progress over the coming year. One honest thing that i have found with ADY is that its hard to put even a rough estimate/value on Rincon Salar as i feel the upside on the Lithium etc is huge. Has anybody purchased Lithium Ion battery's for a Sony DVD Cam as I have of recent!! $299 for a tiny little battery that generates enough life for up to 4 continious hours before having to recharge again.!! We must not forget the Lifestyle the Chinese/Indians want which is similiar to us. Mobile Phones,Laptops,Hybrid Cars,Digital Cameras,DVD Cameras,HD Cameras,Golf Buggy's,MP3's, the list goes on and on and all of those products require lithium!!
DYOR on this stock as I have and you will soon understand the excitement in which people have only just begun to find in ADY!! A stock to watch in 2007 IMO.

[ColdZinc]

I was a long term "investor" up until late 2006 when i took up "trading" full time. I sold down my investment portfolio in March/April, just a bit early but still thankfully before the May correction. I kept 6 stocks only. ADY was one of them. I'm a believer in their story. They've tested my patience, but I'm holding them.

Of course, I've been wrong before.....

[johnno261]

I was a long term "investor" up until late 2006 when i took up "trading" full time. I sold down my investment portfolio in March/April, just a bit early but still thankfully before the May correction. I kept 6 stocks only. ADY was one of them. I'm a believer in their story. They've tested my patience, but I'm holding them.

Of course, I've been wrong before.....

Your faith and patience will be rewarded champ. I was in the run up back 2 years plus back when she went up to 26cents,took a huge profit and ever since have always had it on my watch list. I purchased a huge parcel yesterday because i like the outlook & management are believe me, doing their best and will achieve their ultimate goal which will be bringing Rincon Salar into production and wont management be rewarded in doing so. I know PT has a huge shareholding which is very incouraging!! Well done ColdZinc for holding and believing in something that will be fantastic!!

[rub92me]

Another excellent announcement this morning, which will boost short term profitabilty for ADY. With the consolidation around 12 cents in the past 3 weeks, the stage is set for a next run. It will take an awful lot of volume to break through though, probably more than 50 million shares in a couple of days. Let's see what the market will do with this announcement...

[rub92me]

Highest high in 15 months last week @ 13.5 cents with good volume, and after a slight retrace earlier in the week, it finally broke through to 15 cents today with more than 30 million shares traded. Some consolidation again above 13.5 cents next week would be nice to make it the new support :D .

[sam76]

Highest high in 15 months last week @ 13.5 cents with good volume, and after a slight retrace earlier in the week, it finally broke through to 15 cents today with more than 30 million shares traded. Some consolidation again above 13.5 cents next week would be nice to make it the new support :D .

I hope it comes back (just a little bit) as my order at 13.5 never got hit.

:)

[rwkni1]

Into zinc now, iron ore shipping looks to be sorted, and rincon salar development is on track. These guys could very soon be generating some serious cash flow. Very impressive.

[rub92me]

Into zinc now, iron ore shipping looks to be sorted, and rincon salar development is on track. These guys could very soon be generating some serious cash flow. Very impressive.
Agreed; if only the shareprice would move up a bit more! Had another promising run yesterday, but fizzled out again today with dumping at the close. Not bad considering overall market conditions in the past couple of weeks I suppose, but I was hoping for more..

[rub92me]

This didn't drift back too much in the past 2 weeks on low volume and consolidated nicely between 13-14 cents.
Finally on the move again today with a strong close at 15 cents and decent volume. Hope it's not another fake run, like the last one. Big volume day tomorrow pretty please:cool:

[bel532]

This didn't drift back too much in the past 2 weeks on low volume and consolidated nicely between 13-14 cents.
Finally on the move again today with a strong close at 15 cents and decent volume. Hope it's not another fake run, like the last one. Big volume day tomorrow pretty please:cool:


Maybe the market is starting to realise the potential of this stock. I hope I'm right!

[bel532]

This didn't drift back too much in the past 2 weeks on low volume and consolidated nicely between 13-14 cents.
Finally on the move again today with a strong close at 15 cents and decent volume. Hope it's not another fake run, like the last one. Big volume day tomorrow pretty please:cool:


But why do you think the big buyers at 13.5c (5mill) and 14c (2mill) disappeared AFTER close of trading? Any idea?

[rub92me]

Lots of posing in the market depth in ADY; it's one of the day trade faves. I look at the actual transactions rather than the market depth 1 or 2 ticks below the price, and that was certainly looking interesting today. Would not be surprised at a gap up tomorrow; not much use if you're not in yet, but nice when you're holding:D

[rub92me]

Gained 20% in two days and now up to 18 cents. Potential breakout from long term resistance looks on now (see my post yesterday) if it can hold. Outstanding breakout if it clears 20 cents with volume. Could fizzle out again if volume is not sustained, but failrly optimistic. Touch wood. :bonk:

[bel532]

Gained 20% in two days and now up to 18 cents. Potential breakout from long term resistance looks on now (see my post yesterday) if it can hold. Outstanding breakout if it clears 20 cents with volume. Could fizzle out again if volume is not sustained, but failrly optimistic. Touch wood. :bonk:

It's all coming together for ADY, at last! It's been a long wait and I hope we all will be justly rewarded.

[rub92me]

There don't appear to be too many ASF holders of this stock, apart from bel532 and I, so I'll celebrate on my own. First close above 20 cents in over 2 years! :dance: Hope it will last.

[bel532]

Im celebrating as well, and I'll keep celebrating as it keeps rising. It's certainly been a long wait.

Am I glad I ignored my broker's advice!

[Sainter]

FWIW I've built a position over the last 9 months on expectation of imminent cashflow from iron ore and the huge potential of Li. CEO Thomas seems to have his knockers, but I'm not one of them. I'm looking forward to the next few years with ADY :)
Cheers!

[Rapide3]

I'm delighted to see ADY finally breaking through again, I too enjoyed taking the profits 2 years ago, jumping out at .23. I bought back in at .14 almost 20 months ago and have watched them hover around the .09 for far too long. The past few weeks have been confidence boosting and it's finally looking rosy again. Congrats to those who have stayed with them.

As an unexperienced investor what's the next move, take the profit or keep holding on for more news on Rincon Salar. Does anyone know what the timeframe is on this project and does anyone have a view on target prices ? Bel, Rub, i'd value your comments.

[ricm]

Im with you guys, this has put a smile on my face since it broke the 12c barrier a while back :) ...but i must admit chart is starting to look a bit toppy to me...with the markets running as they are... I will hold on 4 a little longer... curious to see how far it can run, and whether it hits it long term high of 25c.

Proved now that they can carry through on their deals, but the real proof of their mettle will be when they start to produce both iron ore and most lucratively, lithium.

Good luck to all holders.

[bvbfan]

I'm still holding some from 12c area, sold some at 20c so average is 4.5c on the rest.
I'm really only interested in the lithium so hoping it will pull back once the iron ore announcement news dies down.

Still have a few issues/concerns with management

[rub92me]

Short term, I wouldn't be surprised to see a retrace after having a run of 50% in two weeks. So If you want to take some money off the table now, that is fair enough. I bought this with a 5 year horizon in 2006 and am happy to keep holding. Don't know where the price will be 4 years from now, but long term prospects with Rincon Salar are looking good. Keep your eyes out for a new estimate of Lithium resources. An earlier announcement quite a while back hinted that it could be more than 3 times than originally throught. Now wouldn't that be nice?

[Rapide3]

Thanks for your comments and thoughts.

I've heard some negatives about the management too but as long as the prices keep going up I suppose ethics will take a back-seat.:sly:
Quote:
"Still have a few issues/concerns with management" bvbfan

Anyway, still holding and figure that Rincon Salar will make a sizable difference when it eventuates.

Good luck and keep playing the game.
;)

[rub92me]

Looks like some serious selling off has finally started now, a bit later than I anticipated. A week or so will tell us where the new support is I suppose. I would be happy with consolidation at 20-22 cents.

[barney]

Looks like some serious selling off has finally started now, a bit later than I anticipated. A week or so will tell us where the new support is I suppose. I would be happy with consolidation at 20-22 cents.

Support ended up at 19.5 cents, but looks to be on the move again. Volume 28 million today already ................... A little bit of green in a sea of red.

[Lachlan6]

Just bought in at 23.5. An absolutely cracking chart pattern, will post when Big charts updates itself.

[rub92me]

It started to turn last week, and good to see the follow through today. ADY only tends to move up with big volumes, and sometimes the volume stops abruptly just when you think it goes for a runner. The next couple of days will be interesting to see if we get a serious attempt to bring down the 25 cents barrier.

[Lachlan6]

Yes the reason I bought into this one (have been watching it closely for a while) was due to one of my favourite set ups being triggered today. It has just completed a classic double bottom pattern close to the 38.2% level of support from the Sep 2006 to April of this year's range. In fact it did not even retrace this far, only around 33%, a very bullish signal that this is a very healthy trend. Also this current spurt is being very well supported by volume and the OBV is looking spot on as well, meaning the insto's are in on this one too. Looks as though a Wave 5 has begun and look for much higher levels in this stock IMO.

[sanish]

Been in this for a LONG time. i.e sub 3c.

True only really moves when all cards line up and the factions agree on timing.

Selldown for OPTIONS conversion appears to be complete so i guess we will see them exercised soon to supply $$$ needed for expansion.

Looking forward to the next 12 months.:)

[lioness]

Yes the reason I bought into this one (have been watching it closely for a while) was due to one of my favourite set ups being triggered today. It has just completed a classic double bottom pattern close to the 38.2% level of support from the Sep 2006 to April of this year's range. In fact it did not even retrace this far, only around 33%, a very bullish signal that this is a very healthy trend. Also this current spurt is being very well supported by volume and the OBV is looking spot on as well, meaning the insto's are in on this one too. Looks as though a Wave 5 has begun and look for much higher levels in this stock IMO.

Hi Lachlan,

Once it breaks its 25.5 previous high what price target can we put on this?

In other words I know it will be in blue sky territory but what prediction can we make???

[Lachlan6]

Gday Lioness. It can be a little hard to put targets on these smaller plays and when I purchase some I just trail my stop up and dont really look at a target. This in my opinion is showing a great set up on the chart's however may have a little trouble at 25-25.5 before its next leg up. May only be a few days who knows. In terms of target's looking from a wave extension point of view of the range I mentioned in the above chart, the first target may be around 28-30c, and it may show some resistance around here. Or another target may be the 100% extension of the range giving us around 38c, before it may retrace a little for its next leg up. From there, look at 44 then 49c as possible resistance points.

Exciting times ahead for (ADY). I placed my initial stop below the recent action at 19c.

[rub92me]

Looking at the preopen this should gap up at 25 or 25.5 cents. Hopefully plenty of volume to follow today and we'll have a real break on our hands. Wouldn't surprise me if it peters out though, it has done that before as well. Today will tell the story whether we have a real re-rating of ADY.

[barney]

Looking at the preopen this should gap up at 25 or 25.5 cents. Hopefully plenty of volume to follow today and we'll have a real break on our hands. Wouldn't surprise me if it peters out though, it has done that before as well. Today will tell the story whether we have a real re-rating of ADY.

Howdy Rubberman, It often does peter out, but this run is looking promising. I know you've been holding for a while, and would agree that this company has some great projects running and some serious potential. Regardless of where this leg up finishes, I think we will see ADY with some steady increases over the next few months. Long overdue imo.

[rub92me]

Disappointing finish on the low of the day of 25.5 cents and below the gap-up at 26 cents. A lot of volume, but hardly any gains made. Lots of daytraders jumping the gun on this today. Probably now needs to fill the gap at 25 cents before it moves any further.

[barney]

Disappointing finish on the low of the day of 25.5 cents and below the gap-up at 26 cents. A lot of volume, but hardly any gains made. Lots of daytraders jumping the gun on this today. Probably now needs to fill the gap at 25 cents before it moves any further.

Agree R, it was a bit disappointing, but then again, the general market pretty much finished lacklustre .................. If it consolidates above the 24.5 cent area in the short term on good volume, I think that will be a good base for the next series of leg ups ............... At the very least, ADY has out performed the market by a long way over the last couple of days, which is a good sign for the future ............... This company has a lot to offer for medium/longer term holders imo. Time will tell.

[lioness]

Disappointing finish on the low of the day of 25.5 cents and below the gap-up at 26 cents. A lot of volume, but hardly any gains made. Lots of daytraders jumping the gun on this today. Probably now needs to fill the gap at 25 cents before it moves any further.

Yes, spot on rubberdog, it needs to touch 25 to close the gap. It will do this tomorrow and then consolidate for a few days before moving again.

[rub92me]

Great price action today for ADY - closing near the high of the day at an all time high close price on decent volume. Next week will be interesting: this should attract some more 'breakout traders' now to give it a further boost.

[lioness]

Great price action today for ADY - closing near the high of the day at an all time high close price on decent volume. Next week will be interesting: this should attract some more 'breakout traders' now to give it a further boost.

Rub me

I have a breakout next target of 32.5 before it takes a breather.

Do you think it will retrace back to 26 support??

It is is extreme overbought position on the RSI which may contain it.

[nizar]

Great price action today for ADY - closing near the high of the day at an all time high close price on decent volume. Next week will be interesting: this should attract some more 'breakout traders' now to give it a further boost.

Yeh like me.
I'll be buying the opening price on Monday.

Looks like a goer to me. Look at the 5yr daily chart.

[rub92me]

Bit of a false start yesterday with a quick jump up and then a dump of about 2 million shares at 28 cents just when it started to take off, which completely took the wind out of it. Buyers lining up again this morning, so looks like it will start with another gap up today. Let's hope the big players hold their sell bids a bit longer today...

[barney]

Chart on ADY suggests the consolidation period might be ready for another leg up ................ About 5 million share traded already today, and a lot of buyers happy to jump the queue to buy at the higher price ............. Should be interesting over the next couple of days.

[j4mesa]

yes it is good to see that the consolidation does not breach the support,which i think around 24.5-25 c mark. Also it stays the 26-28 mark this couple of days.....

[barney]

Yeh like me.
I'll be buying the opening price on Monday.

Looks like a goer to me. Look at the 5yr daily chart.

Hope you ended up getting on this one N............

Certainly been going gangbusters .......... Great long term story unfolding with this one (as well as being a good trading stock) .......... When the Lithium finally comes on stream, todays sp could seem very good value imo ........

[nizar]

Hope you ended up getting on this one N............

Certainly been going gangbusters .......... Great long term story unfolding with this one (as well as being a good trading stock) .......... When the Lithium finally comes on stream, todays sp could seem very good value imo ........

Hi Barney.

Yes i did buy on the monday paid .285 for them so was sitting in the red for a bit.

But these longterm bluesky breaks are usually goers for me.
28.5/29 was a bit of resistance so when it closed above it on monday i got the signal to pyramid into this winner at .305 on yesterdays open but didnt do so (capital restraints).

If i can, i will pyramid into this winner as it progresses.

But imminently, i see a pullback on the cards, should find support at 28/29c the previous highs from last week.

[barney]

Hi Barney.

Yes i did buy on the monday paid .285 for them so was sitting in the red for a bit.

But these longterm bluesky breaks are usually goers for me.
28.5/29 was a bit of resistance so when it closed above it on monday i got the signal to pyramid into this winner at .305 on yesterdays open but didnt do so (capital restraints).

If i can, i will pyramid into this winner as it progresses.

But imminently, i see a pullback on the cards, should find support at 28/29c the previous highs from last week.

Pleased you got on Niz,............. I agree it should theoretically have a period of consolidation after such a strong run. It will be interesting how far it does pullback to .......... The fundamentals on this Co. are excellent, and it just seems to be going from strength to strength atm ........... I guess it will depend on how many of the trades going through are from potential longer term holders, and how many are just trading the stock ......... High volumes, so you'd expect a lot of that to be traders ........... then again maybe the traders might realise what they might be sitting on in a couple of years ;)

[sanish]

Clever of PT to put out a claytons announcement to avoid a speeding ticket:D

Strong volumes over last few weeks indicates solid distribution to entice new shareholders onboard and establsih new support levels. Of course this has been going on in ADY for several years.

The future and the plan is all falling into place, it is nice to see and does wonders for ones confidence levels going forward.

[rub92me]

Looks like the pullback is not as 'imminent' as thought. Looking good for another record close today. Very clever 'management' of the announcements again by the MD. The pullback when it comes should hold above 30 cents for a while looking at the volume that has gone through in the past 3 days :D

[vvguru]

Great ann in a row, very low phosphorous, which is terrific for Chinese steel makers. We should be able to see it shoot out .45 by today.

[nizar]

Sitting at extreme overbought, RSI sitting on about 90.
Looks like time for a breather.

The (short term) top is probably in at 45c.

[j4mesa]

arrgh.....i took profit @ 0.33 ,
I actually put it on the the competition......but took profit too early...........:banghead::banghead:

[Lachlan6]

Tend to agree Nizar. I have scaled into this one at 23.5c and then 30c so watching closely. New support will probably come in the form of gap refill support around 39c. Will watch the volume on the retracement very carefully as it needs to be small.

[nizar]

Tend to agree Nizar. I have scaled into this one at 23.5c and then 30c so watching closely. New support will probably come in the form of gap refill support around 39c. Will watch the volume on the retracement very carefully as it needs to be small.

Hi Lachlan.

I thought the run was exhausted by Wednesday to be honest so i expected 34.5c the top and retrace to maybe 29-30c.

Obviously thats a bit too much of a pullback now given 45c was the top. So yeh i agree and would suspect it to hold at 38c.

Blow off like today expect large volumes and t+3ers exit, also its a friday, generally a weak day for the market.

But yes if monday tuesday sees red, much lower volumes (sub 10mil) would be bullish.

Im holding since .285. Havent pyramided into it since there have been no pullbacks.

[rub92me]

Trading halt pending JORC upgrade for Rincon Salar. This is what they said last November:
"A new JORC study of reserves will be completed now that the porosity is known to be more than three times higher than previously estimated, inferring a much larger resource than previously thought."
Will be interesting to see how much larger! :D

[Bushman]

Trading halt pending JORC upgrade for Rincon Salar. This is what they said last November:
"A new JORC study of reserves will be completed now that the porosity is known to be more than three times higher than previously estimated, inferring a much larger resource than previously thought."
Will be interesting to see how much larger! :D

Announcement is out - a 5.5 times increase in lithium to 1,403 tonnes. That is a positive announcement if ever I saw one!!

[Quixis]

arrgh.....i took profit @ 0.33 ,
.but took profit too early...

You can never take a profit too early. Like you can never pay too much tax. If you follow me.

I'd gladly pay $30 mill tax a year. :)

[kerosam]

been kicking myself on this one... sold at $0.14 to buy another :banghead:

waiting to get in again.

[Potato381]

So did I, I sold at .21 to get into FWL - not a bad choice really but I'm back in and holding..... really wish I had gotten back in when she started running but you live and learn.

[rapidex]

Yep - me too. Sold at 26.5c - looking for retracement to 20c

In at 11c though, but always the hindsight:banghead: gets me.

Always another one around the corner though I suppose :(

[gfresh]

This Reserve calculation has increased the size of the deposit, from the previous resource calculation of inferred resources from 253,000 tonnes of lithium to 1,403,000 tonnes, a 5.5 times increase, and an upgrade of the status from an inferred resource to proved and probable reserve. The potash reserve also increased from 2.48 million tonnes (potassium), which is equivalent to 4.728 million tonnes of potash to 50.8 million tonnes. These reserves will last approximately 400 years at the current production target of 17,000 tonnes of lithium carbonate, chloride and hydroxide per annum.

The conversion ratio from lithium to lithium carbonate is 5.32, implying a reserve of 7.46 million tonnes of lithium carbonate at $6,000 per tonne (2006 price quoted by Industrial Minerals) with a historical value of $44.7billion. The conversion ratio to lithium Chloride from
lithium metal is 6.12 and for lithium Hydroxide it is 1.49 times.

Correct me if I'm wrong.. however this company has around 560 million shares on offer, now with some $44billion dollars worth of resources (and I'm just looking at their lithium here)... surely any SP below $1 seems silly? Just wondering whether I should buy tomorrow, although I know buying after any announcement often backfires.

[Bushman]

Correct me if I'm wrong.. however this company has around 560 million shares on offer, now with some $44billion dollars worth of resources (and I'm just looking at their lithium here)... surely any SP below $1 seems silly? Just wondering whether I should buy tomorrow, although I know buying after any announcement often backfires.

Having the same dilemma Gfresh. $44b lithium resource based on historical prices plus a substantial iron ore resource - all within a short time to production. I thought I had some time to get a good entry point but I was wrong. Timing and content of the announcement caught me out. Was looking at Rincon and thought it had great potential but I had a few weeks up my sleeve...then bang the ann today and a 50% price hike before I had time to free up funds and take advantage. Oh well cannot win them all.

Think I will wait a day or so to see what profit takers do to this one and then make an entry. Learnt the hard way with AZS a few weeks back - bought in at 24c, watched the market plummet to 20c the next day, now doing nicely on the rebound. Could do without the heart attack though. However the AZS ann was poor whereas this ann is outstanding. Its all about momentum with some of these shares. IMO this one will run hard as the market wakes up to the massive & profitable lithium resource plus iron ore. So I will attempt to pick my entry point in the next few days with AZS in mind. Then again it will probably race up another 30% tomorrow now that I have said that.

Well done to the long term holders by the way. I have read through this thread over the last month or so and it is great to see your faith rewarded. :D

[rub92me]

Well, this has got me stumped. Not that I'm complaining, but I really don't understand why the market liked the announcement so much. They already had enough Lithium for 80 years production. Now they have enough for 400 years. I'm not planning to get that old...:confused:

[Bushman]

Well, this has got me stumped. Not that I'm complaining, but I really don't understand why the market liked the announcement so much. They already had enough Lithium for 80 years production. Now they have enough for 400 years. I'm not planning to get that old...:confused:

That is a good point...unless they increase their production capability then the increased tonnage is fairly useless. NPV of cashflows 400 years out would be ridiculous.

I thought the 50% price hike was a bit nuts myself. I am sure they stated in the ADY website pre announcement that they expected to triple the Rincon resource anyway (I could be wrong). When production throughput of lithium increases that should be the real value driver.

But I really liked what I read about this one esp the lithium story so that is why I wish to buy in. Crazy commodities market at the moment though means 'he who hesitates dies'.

[Absolutely]

Yep it must be the ramping up of production which is driving it. I think I read that they are proposing to double the production rate so that should, over time, re-rate the lithium component of the share price accordingly. However this seems to have occurred in one leap today.

I got in last week at 38c but would hesitate to buy more just now. Will wait and see what happens over the next day or two.

[Sainter]

gfresh,
Dunno where you pulled that quote from, but the Li hydroxide ratio is wrong. It should be 3.44, not 1.49 or whatever it was. The other two ratios are OK.
Cheers!

[GOSAFAS]

I'm very conscious that there are approximately 1bn shares including exercisable options on issue - does anyone see this as a major problem?

[gfresh]

gfresh,
Dunno where you pulled that quote from, but the Li hydroxide ratio is wrong. It should be 3.44, not 1.49 or whatever it was. The other two ratios are OK.

Direct from the ASX release page 1? I just copied and pasted, it's possible of course they made a mistake there.

Buyers lined up at the gate this morning already, doubt I'll get in. But good news to existing holders, should be another large upward move today.

[kerosam]

i rem reading something that ADY have close to 1billion worth of shares & options in another forum too.

if the shares are running hard at the moment, how about buying some options? anyone had a look at the option prices? just a thought.

[GOSAFAS]

I don't think those options are listed mate - I think they're in the hands of directors and staff. Wonder where this stock is going?

[rub92me]

I'm very conscious that there are approximately 1bn shares including exercisable options on issue - does anyone see this as a major problem?
Why would that be a problem in itself? As long as the overall market cap is reflective of current and expected revenue and profits it's okay. It does look however at this stage that a lot of the future revenue is now already priced in, but that's not unusual for mining companies. What has happened recently is a re-rating of the stock which was long overdue in my opinion. Fundamentally things will only change for this company through the following:
1) Major increase in annual iron production.
2) Major increase in Lithium production (rather than resource)
3) Further exploration for other minerals.
:2twocents

[gfresh]

Lot of buyers and sellers meeting around the 58c mark it seems at the moment.. Hopefully this forms a nice support level, to give some stability for the next few days.

[GOSAFAS]

After a lot of thought, I'm thinking of buying some more - they just look so very cheap at the moment

[MS+Tradesim]

Why would that be a problem in itself? As long as the overall market cap is reflective of current and expected revenue and profits it's okay. It does look however at this stage that a lot of the future revenue is now already priced in, but that's not unusual for mining companies. What has happened recently is a re-rating of the stock which was long overdue in my opinion. Fundamentally things will only change for this company through the following:
1) Major increase in annual iron production.
2) Major increase in Lithium production (rather than resource)
3) Further exploration for other minerals.
:2twocents

I've been accumulating this share for over 2 years and I couldn't disagree more with the statement that the future revenue is already priced in. ADY's joint venture company, Cia Minera Santa Barbara (of which it owns 50%) has over 10,000ha of land prospective for iron ore. Though a complete JORC estimate has not been done (in fact only a hundred odd hectares have been calculated) there is at least 600mt of ore available of >60% Fe after beneficiation. They are planning to be producing over 5mtpa in 2008 and ramping up to over 10mtpa in 2009. Li production is wholly owned by ADY and if on schedule, will begin in Sep 08 and reach full production of 17,000tpa in early 09. I have previously calculated the sp to be about $1.70-1.80 by end of 08 if plans are on time and above $2 in 09.

[rub92me]

I've been accumulating this share for over 2 years and I couldn't disagree more with the statement that the future revenue is already priced in. ADY's joint venture company, Cia Minera Santa Barbara (of which it owns 50%) has over 10,000ha of land prospective for iron ore. Though a complete JORC estimate has not been done (in fact only a hundred odd hectares have been calculated) there is at least 600mt of ore available of >60% Fe after beneficiation. They are planning to be producing over 5mtpa in 2008 and ramping up to over 10mtpa in 2009. Li production is wholly owned by ADY and if on schedule, will begin in Sep 08 and reach full production of 17,000tpa in early 09. I have previously calculated the sp to be about $1.70-1.80 by end of 08 if plans are on time and above $2 in 09.
I fully agree with the longer term prospects of this company and have no plans of selling a single share for at least another 3 years. 3 years from now, the current price may look very cheap indeed.
I wasn't saying that all of the possible future revenue is already priced in. My statement was that at this stage a lot of future revenue is already priced in. In other words, current revenue does not justify the market cap. They will need another $100 million plus to start producing the Lithium for instance.

[MS+Tradesim]

Rub, yep I can agree with that.

I missed the words "a lot" when I read your post so that makes a difference in interpretation. Thanks.

[vvguru]

Have you guys noticed apple's iphone? if iphone sales really kick up, powerful and computerised mobile phone will become the norm & industry standard, people will have to get used to daily charging the battery and keep one aside for backup.

Also pc makers now heavily shifting to portables as laptops increasingly taking market shares of desktops.

Those are great potentials mate.

[jet328]

Also pc makers now heavily shifting to portables as laptops increasingly taking market shares of desktops.


Mobiles and laptops are small fry, compared to what would be required for a hybrid/electric vehicle

Cheers :)

[Absolutely]

trading halt again.

acquiring more of CMSB and will increase revenue

sounds good and it's a good day not to be trading

[rub92me]

trading halt again.

acquiring more of CMSB and will increase revenue

sounds good and it's a good day not to be trading
Yes, we would have to compliment the MD on the timing of the announcements in the past couple of months. Another shrewd move as well to increase revenue. I wonder what else they have under their sleeves. E.g. I wouldn't be astonished if we see some form of capital raising soon to capitalise on the recent re-rating of the shareprice and to help fund the Lithium production (supplemented by some debt arrangement supported by the iron revenue).

[rwkni1]

I'm pretty sure the capex for Rincon Salar (around $110m) is going to be entirely financed through debt. Although some cash may be needed for the Chile port construction which could be an excuse for a raising.

[GOSAFAS]

I have bought quite a few more of these and MY PURCHASE ASIDE I truly believe that this is dirt cheap at 50c a share. While I dont advise or want to be seen to advise anybody to buy this stock, for me this is a huge opportunity.

[kerosam]

i m keeping an eye on this one. probably after the 'market noise' clears.

who knows? i might miss the boat... :P

[EZZA]

hey guys,

i know the market has been pulling back lately but not sure why ady pulling back so much just after announcemnt of increasing stake of cia minera barbara. if anything would of thought this would have made the stock out up a little more not so much pullback 10%.

is 0.50 mark a good entry point, think i'll be trying to pick it up around this level.

[kennas]

hey guys,

i know the market has been pulling back lately but not sure why ady pulling back so much just after announcemnt of increasing stake of cia minera barbara. if anything would of thought this would have made the stock out up a little more not so much pullback 10%.

is 0.50 mark a good entry point, think i'll be trying to pick it up around this level.Hi EZZA, welcome aboard.

I'm not sure about the last ann but I was surprised by the pullback after the Rincon Lithium upgrade. $44b in the ground! What the? Must be some skepticism in it perhaps.

As far as TA goes, this was a good breakout in late June, on vol, and powered on. Some healthy consolidation in mid Jul before woosh! I now have support between 40 and 45, if it does pull back that far. The DOW is off about a million points at the moment, so wouldn't be surprised to see everything take a break tomorrow.

[Caliente]

Hi excuse my ignorance, but how much is each mtpa per annum production of iron worth?

ADY as I see it have this 60% controlling stake in SantaBarbara to 1.2mtpa and moving up to 3.9mtpa and then towards 7.2mtpa if I've read the announcements correctly.


edit - from the annoucnement... The environmental permits have been issued to mine iron ore from the
tenements Japonesita, Mirador & Primavera and Mariposa areas increasing permitted
production to 3.9m tonnes per annum. In revenue terms at an FOB price of $43 per tonne,
this means the Santa Barbara mines will be capable of producing revenues of $167m per
annum.

Questions... what does FOB mean? and is the revenue a profit of 167m/annum or total gross revenue?

Cheers
-Cali

[macca]

FOB usually means the buyer pays the shipping freight, so that price is what the producer get paid at the wharf.

Macca

[Lachlan6]

Whole market obviously down quite a bit today. However ADY not performing too badly. Some real value starting to lure investors back. I have posted a chart in what I think may eventuate. We have possible (and in this current market I stress Possible) support starting now at these levels. If not may refill the gap formed earlier this month. Albeit, my stop is placed currently underneath the recent low at $0.36. Notice volume on these down days not as much as when it was marked up a great deal recently. A good sign.

[kerosam]

got hit today at 43.5cts... so i'm in the game, boys! but still not confident with the massive sell last three days. hope its just a correction... fingers cross. :P

[EZZA]

Hi EZZA, welcome aboard.

I'm not sure about the last ann but I was surprised by the pullback after the Rincon Lithium upgrade. $44b in the ground! What the? Must be some skepticism in it perhaps.

As far as TA goes, this was a good breakout in late June, on vol, and powered on. Some healthy consolidation in mid Jul before woosh! I now have support between 40 and 45, if it does pull back that far. The DOW is off about a million points at the moment, so wouldn't be surprised to see everything take a break tomorrow.

Thanks Kennas for your input, saw them dip to 43.5 c and picked them up at 44c today. bought 4k worth today, already have a fair bit in small caps would've ideally liked to have bought more though.

would be expecting this one to ramp up again, once market sentiment picks up again. rest of my portfolio got smashed today though, still up overall so no probs here. how long you intending to hold this one, or you looking to trade this one.

[vvguru]

http://crazyjimsmith.blogspot.com/2007/07/admiralty-resources-ady-keeps-falling.html

here is the link to explain the massive sellout. make sense to me. hold your faith.

[countryboy]

put an order in at 44c late friday that i am going to pull after the sell off on the Dow last night...at this rate i may buy back in below 40c what a bargain !:D

[u235]

my frist post :)
any ideas on when will ady recover ? i jumped on after it fall back on 0.545 the day before the halt , thought i'd be sitting on a nice profit by now, oh well lesson learned.:banghead: but my biggest problem is my cash is tied up some where else
hence that i'm late for the settlement with commsec,im no day trader, other wise i would have paniced and sold my parcel on thursday.it just someting came up and my cash is tid up .i've got to sell it soon or commsec will do it for me anyway ,still not panicing yet ? or should i ? :confused

[gfresh]

I'd expect some further reasonable falls before it picks up. Will be at 30 "something" next week I am guesstimating.

While there was some brief support at $0.45, I don't think it will hold monday due to the yesterday's further US drop.. which means the next one is around $0.37. Not sure how strong that one is either really, with lack of volume there.

My :2twocents is it'll settle somewhere 30-35c next week, going on current conditions.

[AussiePaul72]

my frist post :)
any ideas on when will ady recover ? i jumped on after it fall back on 0.545 the day before the halt , thought i'd be sitting on a nice profit by now, oh well lesson learned.:banghead: but my biggest problem is my cash is tied up some where else
hence that i'm late for the settlement with commsec,im no day trader, other wise i would have paniced and sold my parcel on thursday.it just someting came up and my cash is tid up .i've got to sell it soon or commsec will do it for me anyway ,still not panicing yet ? or should i ? :confused

I know exactly what you are going through U235! I bought in at 0.545 aswell. Not sure what your timeline is but don't panic too much. I think this has got the makings of a great long term stock (fundamentals are very promising), its just giving us some grey hairs while it sorts itself out!! I'm hanging in there for a very simple season .... a company with these fundamentals has to turn around soon and reflect it in the SP :cool:

[kennas]

how long you intending to hold this one, or you looking to trade this one.EZZA, not holding and not planning to buy anything till the dust settles. I have been selling and shorted some stocks on Friday. Will probably put a couple more on your Monday, although I wouldn't be surprised with a dead cat in the US on Monday night and then our Tuesday. Just a pluck though, depends on what other scarey news comes out between now and then.

[nizar]

EZZA, not holding and not planning to buy anything till the dust settles. I have been selling and shorted some stocks on Friday. Will probably put a couple more on your Monday, although I wouldn't be surprised with a dead cat in the US on Monday night and then our Tuesday. Just a pluck though, depends on what other scarey news comes out between now and then.

In all honesty i (and several others) expected the dead cat bounce on friday night, which also explains why many of our speccies were bought up before fridays ASX close. Many of my stocks closed well above their lows and most on white candles.

[EZZA]

i reckon ady might of seen the worst of it, hovering in the 50 c mark. some consolidation would be nice.

although a lot of volatility is expected over the coming month. up 6 cents so far since friday.

didn't realise that lithium would be a hot commodity, i knew iron ore was but lithium? interesting though.

cheers for now.
:rolleyes:

[GTBC]

i reckon ady might of seen the worst of it, hovering in the 50 c mark. some consolidation would be nice.

although a lot of volatility is expected over the coming month. up 6 cents so far since friday.

didn't realise that lithium would be a hot commodity, i knew iron ore was but lithium? interesting though.

cheers for now.
:rolleyes:

:D I believe the potash is the hot stuff aswell. As potash will be in high demand
later on the year or next year as agriculture will be the next popular topic with the demand of bio-fuels and wheet. Thats my thoughts.:rolleyes:

[Knobby22]

Lithium is not rare. China are making it from sea water.
However the mine will produce it cheaply enough to make a nice profit.

[EZZA]

got hammered today, looking very shaky.

next support level looks to be around the 37 c mark. hope this correction is around for too much longer. don't think i'll be buying into anything any time soon.

[EZZA]

i'm out of this one guys, didn't stop loss, sold out at 32c.

anyone still in this one.

i guess i should have expected this with corrections like this small caps can get smashed pretty hard at times.

[AussiePaul72]

i'm out of this one guys, didn't stop loss, sold out at 32c.

anyone still in this one.

i guess i should have expected this with corrections like this small caps can get smashed pretty hard at times.

G'day Ezza .... yes i am still in this one :eek7:.... not sure if i'm doing the right thing by holding or not .... this is the first big correction i have been through .... it sure is giving me some grey hairs! .... however, i've taken the attitude of riding it out (remains to be seen whether its the right thing to do or not) ... i'm prepared to be in for the med-long term meaning up to a few years.
Anybody with experience have any advice on how to trade during corrections with a medium to long term view? :confused:

[Lachlan6]

G'Day Aussie Paul. I sold out of my short term trading ADY's recently. Am still in with a position however as I believe the long term prospects for this stock is very good. Have now (in accordance with the longer term view) switched my trading bias to a weekly view, and don't be surprised to see a further retracement down to resistance turned support at $0.25. If this holds, it may make another assault upon its new highs, but bear in mind this may be a while off yet. Still structurally sound graph (higher highs, lows), however if the June lows are broken, I will be out for sure.

[YELNATS]

... i'm prepared to be in for the med-long term meaning up to a few years.
Anybody with experience have any advice on how to trade during corrections with a medium to long term view? :confused:

You don't have to get up and dance to every tune the band strikes up. Sit it out for a while. regards YN:)

[rub92me]

Never thought we would see as low as 20 cents for ADY ever again. I may regret it later, but I bought some more at this level. This is my only long position remaining. The next couple of months will be interesting. Average price I paid for ADY is still around 10 cents though...

[EZZA]

WTF, ADY recovered pretty strongly from the bottom. I sold out a while ago, without going back in. Didn't really have the balls to stick around.

[Absolutely]

Definitely my strongest recoverer from the recent chaos. Just wish I had had the guts to buy more at 20c. Had I not been badly cut trying to catch the BMN falling knife I probably would have and would be laughing now.
:banghead:

Anyhow, there definitely is a rebuilding of confidence out there with this one. A good sign.

[timelord]

i'm out of this one guys, didn't stop loss, sold out at 32c.

anyone still in this one.

i guess i should have expected this with corrections like this small caps can get smashed pretty hard at times.

I am, but only as a small spec buy. There appears to be interest in this on another site. I have been a sheep on this one, buying at a low, 24 cents. One of a lonely few not red at the moment.

[rub92me]

Yesterday was a good price test for ADY - plenty of buyers stepped when it dropped below 36 cents. Short term I'm expecting it to hold above 35 cents now. Looks like it will gap back up again today to 40 cent plus.
Long(ish) uptrend is still in place as far as I'm concerned in line with Lachlan's observations . Less volatility would be good for my heart though ;)

[rub92me]

Well, 35 cents didn't hold and drifting down further on low volume. Next support between 30 and 32 cents (previous gap up). We should get some news soon on new iron ore sales contracts, and financing arrangements, which may give it a bit of a kick-up. The minor production delays should also be close to being resolved now with more crushers arriving. The real kicker will be the Lithium of course, but that's still some time away. Car producers are getting more serious about electric cars which bodes well for future Lithium batteries demand.

[rub92me]

Announcement out. Another smart strategic move to lock in low cost Sodium Sulphate which will significantly reduce Lithium production costs in the future. I really like the way the managing director of this company thinks ahead.

[nikki]

i have been watching this stock for a while and am surprised by the fact that all these good strategic decisions are not exciting any big buyers out there!!!

[rub92me]

i have been watching this stock for a while and am surprised by the fact that all these good strategic decisions are not exciting any big buyers out there!!!
Volume looks okay today though. :D Probably a bit too early for the real big (institutional) buyers to come into this one. Once (if?) it gets a market cap of over 500 million it will get on a few more radars imo.

[nikki]

good point RUB92me re market cap over 500 million. the more i read into the company the more excited i get about its potential. seems like they have proven resources compared to a lot of other speculatives that are still trying to show us something. i initially got interested in them because of their iron ore reserve but the purity seems very bad compared to what else is out there in small - medium sized iron ore's. their lithium find is amazing/incredible.

:confused:

[AussiePaul72]

Very good volume today pushing SP up over 0.40 and finishing on an intra-day high of 0.41. SP up over 9% today.
Does anyone know if there is an expected announcement due soon?

[Knobby22]

Very good volume today pushing SP up over 0.40 and finishing on an intra-day high of 0.41. SP up over 9% today.
Does anyone know if there is an expected announcement due soon?

I doubt it.
It just has a good expectation going forwards.
Less risk than most, still pretty good value.

[rub92me]

Very good volume today pushing SP up over 0.40 and finishing on an intra-day high of 0.41. SP up over 9% today.
Does anyone know if there is an expected announcement due soon?
I'm expecting them to announce two things in the next 2 weeks or so:
1) Details about debt arrangement for further Rincon development
2) New iron ore sales agreement.
It wouldn't surprise me if the two were somehow combined; i.e. using the trade partner(s) to partly fund the debt.
Possibly already factored in the recent price rise though.
I'll wait to 2010 anyway before I think of selling, but it's fun watching it do its thing in the meantime ;)

[nikki]

what's happening in 2010? hmmm, i was hoping to retire at 40 in vanautu by then?? good luck trading!!!

Rub92me, what else do you trade that you would recommend watching. speculatives, i mean?

[michael_selway]

"I'm expecting them to announce two things in the next 2 weeks or so:
1) Details about debt arrangement for further Rincon development
2) New iron ore sales agreement.
It wouldn't surprise me if the two were somehow combined; i.e. using the trade partner(s) to partly fund the debt.
Possibly already factored in the recent price rise though.
I'll wait to 2010 anyway before I think of selling, but it's fun watching it do its thing in the meantime ;)"

Hi do you know what its resource base is currently?

thx

MS

[rub92me]

Just the iron ore so far: (60% owned)
Japonesa - 41 million tonnes @ 13.87% + 6.4 million inferred @ 16.52%
Japonesita- 21.9 million tonnes @ 19.7% (indicated) + 20.7 million inferred % 24.7%
Mariposa- drilling away, looks like a higher grade resource.

Lithium & Potash resource is off the scale (about a 400 year mine life)
Lithium 911 thousand tonnes proven + 500 thousand indicated
Pothash 33 million tonnes proven + 17 million indicated

[nikki]

why the trading halt i wonder. i have to admit that ady's last trading halt seemed a little unnecessary. i.e. did they need a trading halt to annouce their increasing share of the project? i wonder if this one is going to be similar.

i suspect it might have something to do with raising capital for their projects???

[happytown]

why the trading halt i wonder.

from p 2,


We are discussing with various parties iron ore sales contracts and agency relationships.


i have to admit that ady's last trading halt seemed a little unnecessary. i.e. did they need a trading halt to annouce their increasing share of the project?

from asx website,

http://www.asx.com.au/investor/education/basics/trading_halts.htm


...

ASX may temporarily place a trading halt on a security following a company announcement.

...

cheers :)

[nikki]

hmmmmmm, had not read p.2. of the annoucement. sounds like a very positive annoucement is comming our way. thanks for bringing it to my attention.:banghead:

[timelord]

hmmmmmm, had not read p.2. of the annoucement. sounds like a very positive annoucement is comming our way. thanks for bringing it to my attention.:banghead:


Timing is everything. I was putting in a sell when the halt came through. Hopefully it will be positive news. Most of the shares I have held of late that has a trading halt, sinks after the news. This sounds positive.

[redandgreen]

having read todays ann....... ADY would have to be a MUST for any

portfolio in the next 3 months imho

Anyone care to disagree???

[michael_selway]

Just the iron ore so far: (60% owned)
Japonesa - 41 million tonnes @ 13.87% + 6.4 million inferred @ 16.52%
Japonesita- 21.9 million tonnes @ 19.7% (indicated) + 20.7 million inferred % 24.7%
Mariposa- drilling away, looks like a higher grade resource.

Lithium & Potash resource is off the scale (about a 400 year mine life)
Lithium 911 thousand tonnes proven + 500 thousand indicated
Pothash 33 million tonnes proven + 17 million indicated

Do you know when they plan production and sales?

Also you mention "resource is off the scale", so potentially it could be avery huge resource, but atm not proven as yet?

thx

MS

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 -- -- --
EPS -1.4 -- -- --
DPS 0.0 -- -- --

[MS+Tradesim]

Ady is already selling some iron ore but major contract expected by end of October. First batch of Lithium should be due Sept.08 with contracts expected by Mar.08 with an initial pre-sales contract due any time before then. Very huge Li resource is already proven. rub92me included that info. Please check anns.

[Techbuy]

ADY (Iron ore) is ready to sign contracts with a SP of $0.495 today and FMG (Fortescue - also Iron Ore) is at $48.50.

FMG is developing The Pilbara Iron Ore and Infrastructure Project and will commence shipping ore from Port Hedland in the first quarter of 2008.

While ADY is behind in shipping it is still well on track to ship massive amounts of ore. This is the ann today from ADY.

++++++++++++++++
Admiralty Resources, on behalf of its 60%-owned Cia Minera Santa Barbara joint
venture, has commenced discussions with various parties on sales of magnetite
iron ore for the period 2008 -2011
• Admiralty expects to enter a Heads of Agreement for supply of iron ore from
2010/11 to 2018 to be shipped from its proposed Punta Alcalde Capesize port
conditional on the ports’ completion date
• The iron ore contract discussions include a new 2007 benchmark price, funding
options and a change to free-on-board delivery basis
+++++++++++++++++

They are also diversified into other resources, this is from the same ann.

+++++++++++++++++
The Company is involved in four main projects:
• The Rincon Salar, Argentina, lithium carbonate, lithium hydroxide, lithium chloride, and potash project;
• The Cia Minera Santa Barbara, Chile, iron ore joint venture, through its 60% interest therein;
• The Pyke Hill, Australia, nickel and cobalt joint venture, through its 50% interest therein; and
• The Bulman, Australia, zinc and lead project.
++++++++++++++++++

Would appreciate some feedback on this as the SP gap beween the ADY and FMG is SOOOOO big and yet they seem to be on the same track.

Is FMG overpriced?
Is it because they are in Australia and ADY is in South America?
will ADY hit the same levels as FMG when they start shipping?
Cheers :)

[nikki]

did anyone else notice the incredible manipulation in the share price today!! i was amazed at how it broke 0.5.

fmg plans to ship 200 mgt per year if i am correct. ady does not even get a mention in the iron ore world in terms of volume. have a look at the recent presentations (should be on the asx web page for today) by sdl and gbg about their merger and how they fit into the australian iron ore family.

ady's purity levels are pretty poor if i am correct in my reading. lastly, iron ore from south america costs a lot more to ship than the australian one's.

i have to admit, i am intrigued at it low capitalization given its potential and proven resources.:eek7:

[danc]

Share price manipulation??? How do you mean?? Their iron ore is not much good??? Someone is buying it like someone is buying the shares. You sound like you think there is some sort of trick going on. Maybe you can see something I cant. Could you please explain. I have a heap and was going to buy another half a heap tomorrow. Maybe I shouldnt.

[countryboy]

ADY send their ore through the mill twice to lift the "poor" % to around 55% to 60 %. Yep its not a great grade but what they do after that makes up for it. Compare ady with a host of Australian IO hopefuls and I think you will find its present price very attractive. I find the current price of FMG to be unbelievable - will want to be a great dividend to buy in at that price....when they finally start making a profit.:D

[nikki]

that's interesting about the way they work with the impurities in the ore.

re the price manipulation, i noticed buyers piling at 0.49, 0.495 and 0.5 at around 3 to 4 million which i have not seen before.

they were basically saying why sell when there are so many ready to buy at 0.49 and 0.495.

as soon as the price got to 0.505 and 5.1 they all dissapeared without the volume being reflected in the total sales volume except that the price retraced back to .495. i was not looking for a short while during all this which happened around 3.40 - 3.55pm yesterday.

i.e. i think what happened was someone pushed the price from 0.47 upwards to 0.51 and sold massive lots with a huge profit.

i have no problems with that because it means that today the stock might open above .5 and move towards .6. i nearly bought some at .51 because i saw the huge number of buyers @ 0.49 and 0.495.

i think this is a great stock and would be happy paying whatever market is today but given its fall from grace once it got to 0.67 i have been wondering if this stock gets manipulated badly because of the high volumes that traded.

[tech/a]

Trading this myself and watched on my own live screen.
Didnt see anything unusual.High volume buyers who pulled their bids prior to close.

[Lachlan6]

If only it could become another FMG :p: Definently looking very good at the moment from a technical side anyway. This week has broken through key resistance with huge volume. Notice the recent correction in price was not supported by a fall in OBV. A very good sign that investors were picking this up at the cheaper price. Much higher levels beckon in my opinion.

[tech/a]

This may explain some of the price action in ADY.
I expect a follow through on ADY. This 100 charater rule is annoying.
When a chart shows a 1000 words.

[kennas]

This 100 charater rule is annoying.
When a chart shows a 1000 words.I agree tech, but it can't be made possible. Was suggested in the policy dev, but the program won't play the game.

[happytown]

...

ady's purity levels are pretty poor if i am correct in my reading

...

countryboy is correct in that they mill the ore to improve the 'purity', however the delivered 'purity' has exceeded 60% on all their shipments thus far,

from the June 2007 Quarterly Report released 30/07/07, p2:


We completed four shipments in the June quarter shipping approximately 157,000 tonnes of iron ore and Cia Minera Santa Barbara (CMSB) received more than US$11million in revenue. CMSB received an Fe bonus for every shipment, exceeding our contract guarantee of 63.5% by more than 1% in some cases. Wuhan has expressed their delight at the quality of the iron ore and are considering it for other iron ore applications. They are sympathetic to the issues associated with the start up of the Santa Barbara plant, and will renegotiate the delivery schedule for the balance of the contract past 30 September 2007.

cheers :)

[rub92me]

ADY (Iron ore) is ready to sign contracts with a SP of $0.495 today and FMG (Fortescue - also Iron Ore) is at $48.50.

Would appreciate some feedback on this as the SP gap beween the ADY and FMG is SOOOOO big and yet they seem to be on the same track.

Is FMG overpriced?
Is it because they are in Australia and ADY is in South America?
will ADY hit the same levels as FMG when they start shipping?
Cheers :)
You can't really compare the 2 in my opinion.
FMG market cap is more than 25x ADY. They are planning to ship 15-20 times more iron ore than ADY in the next 5 years.
Iron ore is only the 'means to an end' for ADY. The Lithium/Potash play has far better cost/revenue economics and will overtake the iron ore profit very quickly if all goes to plan.

[tech/a]

ADY is currently showing no demand.
Swamping by strong selling gives me no confidence in the short term.
I'm out at 49c

[skating101]

The strong selling hints at profit taking from recent gains by a nervous market? Or is there something that I don't know?

[nikki]

very dissappointing finish wasn't it.

it seems to have repeated its last performance moving up to .64/67:(

[mayk]

I bought the stock at todays peak :banghead: I was hoping this will cross the resistance this time... Oh well now it is hold for me...

[AussiePaul72]

I bought the stock at todays peak :banghead: I was hoping this will cross the resistance this time... Oh well now it is hold for me...

Hey Mayk .... if it makes you feel any better i bought in at 0.545 just before it peaked on its last rapid rise in July ... and in hindsight my timing could have been better but IMHO over the long term its not going to make much difference at all.

Just be patient and while ADY appears to get traded quite a bit and therefore can spike and dip a fair bit, however, the general trend in SP over the last 12 mths has seen it rise from around the 8c level to where it is today.

Iron ore is one of the projects that will get ADY going but keep in mind the potentially world class lithium resource that is being developed. Of course, DYOR! :D

[nikki]

hi all, very impressed after reading the annual report.

noticed for instance that they are planning to be shipping upwards of 5 million tonnes of ore annually. not sure if i am correct but MGX is aiming for 10 and the merged gbg/sdl entity will do around 60. share price of MGX was 2.30 yesterday - i think.

they will have around 20% of the world market on lithium - that is a huge resource with amazing potential.

i could not make sense of their position in terms of how much money they have, etc. they seem to be a little cash poor especially after the recent purchases. anyone have thoughts on this?

very impressed shareholder.:)

[rub92me]

hi all, very impressed after reading the annual report.

noticed for instance that they are planning to be shipping upwards of 5 million tonnes of ore annually. not sure if i am correct but MGX is aiming for 10 and the merged gbg/sdl entity will do around 60. share price of MGX was 2.30 yesterday - i think.

they will have around 20% of the world market on lithium - that is a huge resource with amazing potential.

i could not make sense of their position in terms of how much money they have, etc. they seem to be a little cash poor especially after the recent purchases. anyone have thoughts on this?

very impressed shareholder.:)
I wouldn't worry too much about the cash position. They will have another 6 million coming in from options conversion before end of November.
For the iron ore port development they will need some financing, which won't be that hard to get given the revenue that they are creating.
For the Lithium they will get lump sum prepayments for a 10 year 10% take-off agreement.

[nikki]

I really like the price movement on friday. It seems to have tested the resistence of .43/44 and rebound with some force before the massive sell off at the close.

I thought those of you who are holding short term and who bought above 0.5 might find some use in the following comments from a broker i read:

"ADY - Admiralty Resources NL – 49.5c
-Comments from 14 May 2007-The current price target of 26c is on the verge of being met. Should a further upside breakout occur from this level the calculated price target is 51c. Considering the Stock has moved from 10 cents to 25 cents ( 250% ) then a further 100% is not out of the Question.

-The Weekly chart of ADY shows the price target being met on the week of 2 July 2007 with a major corrective move during the recent market volatility.
-The rickshaw man at the high shows rejection of a high price with Strong move back to 19c where the price tested the long term trend line (3).
-It should be noted the low of 19c is a higher low than the June low.
-This highlights the methodology behind drawing accurate lines.
-Recently the stock has rallied with a higher low being set at 32c and a further breakout underway.
-A price target of 64c is showing at the recent high price resistance area, look for more consolidation in this area.
-Primary trend is UP.
-For traders an initial stop would be taken at the support point of 43c. "

[nikki]

can someone translate their annoucement for me????? i have no idea whether this is good or bad! :banghead::banghead:

[skating101]

I second the translation request. I think im wrong but it sounds like the demerger will leave 2 seperately listed entities (one the Iron Ore project and one the Lithium project) and each ADY share will become one in each of the 2 entities?

[nikki]

for every 3.47215 ady shares you will get 1 ady share. however, you will also get 1 share in the new entity that they create which they are calling rincorn lithium ltd.

what i do not know is whether this is good or bad in terms of an investment. sellers are dumping at the moment but this is usuall with annoucements of this kind.

what i am unsure about is how many rincorn lithium ltd shares will be offered and how much they market will value them.

also, i have no idea what their iron ore venutre on its own would be worth?

[skating101]

im in the same boat as you nikki, i think a lot of people are unsure how to take this news and so are selling nonetheless.

[happytown]

can someone translate their annoucement for me

on a brief read they indeed intend splitting the co into two entities - one for iron ore, one for lithium.

prior to doing that they will be undertaking a share consolidation, so that for every 3.47215 shares you have you will now have 1 share, by doing this they will reduce the number of ADY shares from over 960 million to 280 million, thus the 3.47215 ratio

further for every 1 ADY share you hold post consolidation you will receive 1 gratis (ie free) share in the newly listed ADY-lithium entity

if you believe in both of the iron ore and lithium projects in their own right it would arguably be a logical progression for the co and as they indicate in the ann, good for shareholders as it unlocks the potential of each project separately

for eg, if you hold 34,722 ADY shares, they will become 10,000 ADY shares, then you will receive 10,000 (gratis) ADY-lithium shares

so you will have 10,000 ADY-iron ore shares and 10,000 ADY-lithium shares

as there will be less ADY shares on issue after the consolidation, the price of the ADY shares should (all things being equal) initially (and before the lithium spin-off [and this depends on how much of the lithium project the market has already factored into the current ADY price]) increase such that the current market cap is the same as the post-consolidation market cap

cheers :)

PS I see you worked out the ann whilst I was posting

[rub92me]

can someone translate their annoucement for me????? i have no idea whether this is good or bad! :banghead::banghead:
It's neither good nor bad at this stage until we know at what price the issue will be valued.
1) Your existing holding is consolidated from 3.47215 to 1. I.e. if you now hold 100,000 shares, then you will end up with 28,801 shares (assuming they will round up). Presumably the shareprice will be multiplied by the same factor so your netposition is unchanged.
2) You will get 1 share in the new entity Rincon Lithium Limited for each ADY share you hold after consolidation. I.e. in this example you will get 28,801 shares.
I think the drop in price today is caused by the production delays that were also announced..

[ta2693]

Consolidation will decrease market liquidity, as I have observed in ASX.
There is big liquidity on ARJ, but no liquidity after consolidation.
Same thing happens on ZBB.

[nikki]

production delays - good point but i think i had assumed that from the annual report when they commented on ports not being available. i had not realised that they did not have enough equipment.:confused:

[semochen]

Hello, and nice to meet you all...

Have just given ADY a call, and how we are interpreting the announcement atm is correct. We get 1 ADY share for every 3.47215 shares we currently hold, plus 1 free Rincon shares.

So it's all up to how the Rincon shares are valued when they are issued.

Can someone please help with calculations on the possible value of Rincon?
The guy on the phone said it's to be based on future earnings, and depending on what P/E ration they are going to use. But how do we find the value/earnings of the Lithium project??

[ADoyle]

I believe one of the company goals here will be to decrease the trading of the stock and hence achieve appropriate values in both projects for serious shareholders.
ATM the wild fluctuations in ADY due to traders jumping on and off is deterring the mid to long term investor.

[rub92me]

Hello, and nice to meet you all...

Have just given ADY a call, and how we are interpreting the announcement atm is correct. We get 1 ADY share for every 3.47215 shares we currently hold, plus 1 free Rincon shares.

So it's all up to how the Rincon shares are valued when they are issued.

Can someone please help with calculations on the possible value of Rincon?
The guy on the phone said it's to be based on future earnings, and depending on what P/E ration they are going to use. But how do we find the value/earnings of the Lithium project??
From their latest presentation and incorporated the Opex saving from the Sodium Sulphate resource acquisition (saving around $10 million/annum)
Lithium from June 2009: Annual Opex around $25 million, Revenue around $105 million.
Potassium from Dec 2008: Annual Opex ??, Revenue around $20 million.

[nikki]

From their latest presentation and incorporated the Opex saving from the Sodium Sulphate resource acquisition (saving around $10 million/annum)
Lithium from June 2009: Annual Opex around $25 million, Revenue around $105 million.
Potassium from Dec 2008: Annual Opex ??, Revenue around $20 million.

Thanks for this - is this good or bad?

Not sure if i am correct: MGX trades at $2.6 with 787.8 million shares on issue (market cap @ 1205 million). It is expecting to produce 'maybe' 3 mtpa with increases in the following years. They have good access to ports. They have $61 million in the bank but have a debt of $91million.

ADY will have 280 million shares on issue after consolidation. It will produce between 1.5-2 mt in 2008 with estimates of 3 mt in 2009.

what does that tell me:banghead: Better get back to work?

[semochen]

Thanks rub92me...

so... if we say 100 million per year revenue..

and 280 million shares after the split..

100/280 = 35.7c earnings per share

if we use P/E of 5, Price = 1.785

Have I done this right? if it is... then it doesn't sound too bad.. cos :

1.785/ 3.47215 = 0.514 (3.47215 being the ratio no the announcement today)

plus we are getting the ADY (iron ore part)

[AussiePaul72]

Another good day for ADY today with good volume and testing above 50c again. The market seems to have given the announcement and share offer the tick of approval. Holding! :D

[nikki]

I am excited but a little confused with their announcement today. are these two new tenements different to the existing ones that have been supplying the ore. also, can anyone tell whether they have indicated what quantity this new find is likely to be.

I am so impressed by the fundamentals of this company but i keep doubting myself because of the market cap of ADY.

As much as i think there are advantages to having huge shares on offer by creating liquidity there is something so frustrating about the day traders who hammer a stock back to its openning price when image where the stock would be today if yesterday's aggressive selling had not happened.

[rub92me]

I am excited but a little confused with their announcement today. are these two new tenements different to the existing ones that have been supplying the ore. also, can anyone tell whether they have indicated what quantity this new find is likely to be.

I am so impressed by the fundamentals of this company but i keep doubting myself because of the market cap of ADY.

As much as i think there are advantages to having huge shares on offer by creating liquidity there is something so frustrating about the day traders who hammer a stock back to its openning price when image where the stock would be today if yesterday's aggressive selling had not happened.
Yes, they are additional to what they're currently mining. They've only touched/seriously looked at about 2% of the tenements they have.
Grades are looking promising, but beyond that there isn't much to say until they drill more holes. It's all a bit academic anyway how much iron ore resource they will eventualley end up with, and I don't think there is any doubt of much more to come. They're capped by how much they can get out the ground and shipped more than by their resource imo.
It will be interesting to see how they will value the two separate entities (iron ore and Lithium) going forward and how they will split it out. I think that will give a good insight in what to expect from this in the future.
Without the daytraders it would be a bit dull to watch, in the longer term they won't decide where the shareprice will be 2-3 years from now though. :D

[nikki]

It's all a bit academic anyway how much iron ore resource they will eventualley end up with, and I don't think there is any doubt of much more to come. They're capped by how much they can get out the ground and shipped more than by their resource imo.

It will be interesting to see how they will value the two separate entities (iron ore and Lithium) going forward and how they will split it out. I think that will give a good insight in what to expect from this in the future.
Without the daytraders it would be a bit dull to watch, in the longer term they won't decide where the shareprice will be 2-3 years from now though. :D

good point about the cap because of the 3.9(?) mtpa permit. i assume now they will be able to reduce costs by taking from tenements with higher FE grades. I wonder if they will be able to increase their permit once they have more proven resources.

is the japonesa and japonesita FE hematite or magnetite (i couldnt find info on this). the annoucement today talks about finding megnetite which i think is worth more than hematite (no idea why?) - which is why SDL's ore is worth more than GBG's aside from volumes.

your right about the excitment of watching ady - it certainly keeps me on the edge of my seat:D

[skating101]

the market does seem particularly disinterested in ADY right now, i suspect despite the good news everyone still wants to know what the IPO will be for the new Rincon Salar entity, it really does seem to be holding the share price back at 50, nevermind the fundamentals are still strong and more good news.

[rub92me]

the market does seem particularly disinterested in ADY right now, i suspect despite the good news everyone still wants to know what the IPO will be for the new Rincon Salar entity, it really does seem to be holding the share price back at 50, nevermind the fundamentals are still strong and more good news.
Sorry, but I don't understand where you get the apparent disinterest from. Volumes the last 10 days are near record highs and the price has gone up 50% in the last 3 weeks. Having another good go today at poking its head above the 50 cents.
Some further info on the proposed demerger from the ADY website:
Questions & Answers on the Admiralty Resources Demerger


Q: What is the process for the Admiralty Resources demerger and how will my share holding be affected?

Step 1: Consolidation of Admiralty Resources (ADY) shares

Admiralty Resources shares will be consolidated on the basis of 1 new ADY share for every 3.47215 existing shares held.

As an example; at the time of the demerger a shareholder has 100,000 ADY shares trading at 40 cents. After consolidation their holding would equate to approximately 28,800 shares trading at $1.39.

Step 2: Issue of Rincon Lithium shares

All shareholders will then be issued 1 Rincon Lithium share for every consolidated ADY share they hold.

This will occur after the experts report, director's report, prospectus for the demerger, cost base for Admiralty Resources and Rincon Lithium shares are calculated and an EGM (Extraordinary General Meeting) is held.

Q: When will the demerger take place?

At this stage the demerger is scheduled for February 2008 however there are many issues which could affect this date.

Q: How will the demerger affect share price?

It is likely that the ADY share price will drop after the demerger reflecting the value of the Rincon business being extracted.

The Rincon Lithium share price will assume a premium to the value currently held in Admiralty. This is because pure chemical companies trade at a 25-50% earnings premium to iron ore companies.

The affect of the demerger is to give shareholders a free increase in price by virtue of the different P/E's.

Q: How will the value and subsequent cost base of the new ADY shares and Rincon Lithium shares be calculated?

We will get an expert to calculate the value and subsequent cost base of the Santa Barbara business as well as that of the Rincon Lithium business.

[roland]

ADY's performance today makes me forget a little about PDN. Depth is good, volume is good, propects are good - what more could you ask for :)

[nikki]

thanks for posting that Rub92me.

i read that on their web page and saw great potential in them commissioning a professional assessment of the two projects. I think that will highlight even more the value in the lithium based projects and will positively impact share price.

clearly, the selling and buying volume in the past week has been pretty impressive. unless there is a severe correction in the DJIA tonight i am feeling optimistic aboud ADY hitting .6 :)

[skating101]

Your right rub92me i only said that because I felt that the number of people buying and holding the shares at that time seemed small since the SP was closing at the same price everyday with big swings during the day. Also do you guys think the Santa Barbara iron ore operation a good invesment by itself?

[nikki]

I think once they manage to get some of the sales contracts for the ore it will be a great company because it will be one of the few small to mid cap iron ore companies with an income stream to do more.

Given the size and number of tenements and the purity of the ore there is great potential in what it will do. I think the cap on its annual production will impact how large it can get in the long-term. Once this is amended the potential for it to become huge just in terms of ore production seems huge.

I am more worried about the potential of exchange rate, tsunami in chile and port availability in terms of what it will do in the future.

[rub92me]

Also do you guys think the Santa Barbara iron ore operation a good invesment by itself?
That will depend on what they value it at when it demerges.
Back of the envelope estimates for revenue from 2009 suggests that Lithium costs vs revenue are 3 times better than for Iron ore.
So let's assume the following: after consolidation share price will be $2 with 280 million shares on issue.
ADY Iron ore will be: SP: 50 cents - market cap $140 million. 2009 profit on this around 21 million - 7.5 cents a share. That's good enough for me.
ADY Lithium will be SP: 1.5 - market cap $ 420 million.

[AussiePaul72]

That will depend on what they value it at when it demerges.
Back of the envelope estimates for revenue from 2009 suggests that Lithium costs vs revenue are 3 times better than for Iron ore.
So let's assume the following: after consolidation share price will be $2 with 280 million shares on issue.
ADY Iron ore will be: SP: 50 cents - market cap $140 million. 2009 profit on this around 21 million - 7.5 cents a share. That's good enough for me.
ADY Lithium will be SP: 1.5 - market cap $ 420 million.

Hey Rub92me, if your figures are close to being right and they seem quite plausable from the outset (although i'm not an analyst on these things) .....i'd be a very happy investor in ADY :D

This last month has been very encouraging for ADY ......up around 60% in the last 3 weeks from around the 33-34c level to a close of 53.5c today......and convincingly finished above the 50c level after testing it on a number of occasions recently ..... very strong volumes continue to be traded even as the SP has moved up

The demerger (without knowing exact details but from what i understand) could offer more value to shareholders. Also from my understanding, its not to late for new shareholders to get the whole share offer in both companies. This may be creating a lot of interest at present in the market. This is just my opinion and the way i see it ......DYOR :D

[AussiePaul72]

Huge day of trading for ADY today. Biggest volume (over 74 million) traded in a single day since early January this year.

IMO it seems that ADY is well and truly in the scopes of day traders at the moment. It hit an intra-day high of 59c (up over 10%) before sellers brought it back to finish the day at 54.5c (up 1c on Fridays close).

It does show there is a lot of interest in ADY at present one way or the other.

What do others read into the current ADY trading activity?

[rub92me]

What do others read into the current ADY trading activity?
Lots of effort (volume) for little gain. Short term I wouldn't be surprised if it retraces a bit over the next couple of days on lower volume. Unless they throw in another nice announcement of course :D.

[nikki]

hi rub92me, would you mind telling me what the red line is through the top chart. i am not much of a chartist.

i agree about retracing backwards. the candle it formed yesterday would certainly keep me at bay!!! the fast stochastic (on a 5 day average) shows over-bought signals whereas the MACD divergence is the strongest it has been for a while - so good news would certainly revive some strong buying interest.

its a shame it did not get the chance to test .6. that would have been interesting to watch. i guess anything more that a 10% gain in one day is signal for traders to sell on the day.

[rub92me]

hi rub92me, would you mind telling me what the red line is through the top chart. i am not much of a chartist.

It's the 34 day EMA (Exponential Moving Average) confirming that the (shortish) trend is up. But then we already knew that anyway I suppose... If it dips too far below that I'd be looking for another opportunity to add for the long term.

[Tekmann]

If it dips too far below that I'd be looking for another opportunity to add for the long term.

Rub92me
Is that even if it were Onetell or HIH :p:, as companies trading below 120-200ema for extended periods could indicate a sign of trouble.

Nikki.

You may find this link useful, as sight has plenty of good stuff.
http://stockcharts.com/school/doku.php?id=chart_school:technical_indicators:movi ng_averages

Cheers
Tekmann

[rub92me]

Rub92me
Is that even if it were Onetell or HIH :p:, as companies trading below 120-200ema for extended periods could indicate a sign of trouble.

Nope; if it would trade below 120-200 EMA for a long time I would probably sell as I agree that could be a sign of trouble (or at least not going anywhere positive in a hurry). It hasn't done that for a while though.
When I said 'dip', I meant to imply a short sharp move below the 34 day EMA line (which is higher than the 120-200 day EMA).

[nikki]

Thanks for the site Teckmann. What a fantastic site with so much good stuff to read???? Appreciate your help.

Rub92me, can i ask whether you can connect the software you use to a live feed from something like etrade or commsec. i noticed it is well priced to buy but how do you get your information re the stocks. Sorry everyone else for asking this but no idea how to differentiate between all the stuff that is out there and i need something more sophisticated that etrade!!!!!:(

[rub92me]

Hi Nikki, I use Amibroker with a plug in to Interactive Brokers to get intraday data for some of the stocks I follow closely. I use Premium data to get my end of day data which I use to run scans and test my set ups and trading plans (futures and ASX data). Still learning most of that myself though.

[Tekmann]

can connect the software you use to a live feed from something like etrade or commsec. :(

I've asked the question a few times b4 as that would be a cheap/free data feed on a decent charting program, and what what I've found is can't be done, unless you can write a api (application program interface) to support dde (dynamic data exchange) between systems.

Though I would think these brokers would have a problem as one would have to hack it to get this to work

Tekmann

[nikki]

hi all,

does anyone know whether the 3.9 mtpa license for japonesa means that the soberana & negrita mines are subject to a different license? if so, is there a cap on how much ady can produce in iron ore?

can anyone tell if the announcement today is of any real value to the company? i guess all this is helping them greatly with their negotiations relating to the sale of their iron ore?:sly:

[rub92me]

This has been consolidating nicely above 50 cents on lower volume in the past 10 days or so. Last hour of trading yesterday was looking promising and finishing up 2.5 cents. Pre-open at the moment is looking strong with the potential of a little gap-up above 55 cents. Will it have another go at 60 cents? A close today above 57 cents could mean it is starting its next leg up in earnest. Fingers and toes crossed.

[nikki]

that would be good!

it looks like sellers are out in masses from .57 onwards. not sure who would have the bulldozer to wipe them out.

one thing i have realised with ady is that the moment i think it is going to do something in particular it does the opposite. so, for today i am going to go and count waves.:rolleyes:

[nikki]

This has been consolidating nicely above 50 cents on lower volume in the past 10 days or so. Last hour of trading yesterday was looking promising and finishing up 2.5 cents. Pre-open at the moment is looking strong with the potential of a little gap-up above 55 cents. Will it have another go at 60 cents? A close today above 57 cents could mean it is starting its next leg up in earnest. Fingers and toes crossed.


hi rub92me, are you the one buying those 1 million + parcels. what do you know that i don't.

if it finishes at or around .57 can you please be my stockbroker - good read of the stock.

[spruik]

that would be good!

it looks like sellers are out in masses from .57 onwards. not sure who would have the bulldozer to wipe them out.

one thing i have realised with ady is that the moment i think it is going to do something in particular it does the opposite. so, for today i am going to go and count waves.:rolleyes:

Like someone on HC commented, it looks like "changing of the guards", from traders to investors.

With so many owning them from around 10c and the roller coasting in recent past there will be many profit takers. But the base it's been forming (50-55) looks very strong.

(Long in ADY)

[rub92me]

hi rub92me, are you the one buying those 1 million + parcels. what do you know that i don't.

if it finishes at or around .57 can you please be my stockbroker - good read of the stock.
Nah, that wasn't me :p:.I was lucky enough to get in early on this one and only trade small portions for short term if I see a low risk set up.
It fell a bit short of my optimistic expectations, but a close of 56 cents was still the second highest close. Another big volume day may do it, but not many punters lining up in the pre-open buy depth so far...

[Absolutely]

Well there you go - something completely different to think about. lead zinc anomaly. Hasn't done anything for the share price but at least we know there are other things this company has going for it besides lithium and iron ore.

[skating101]

Where have all the new investors gone? Is everyone sitting on the sidelines until the price for the new entity comes out?

[nikki]

Where have all the new investors gone? Is everyone sitting on the sidelines until the price for the new entity comes out?

really low volume - no one wanting to sell or buy??? :confused:

ok!! who cares about zine and lead but after that huge open i thought something might happen other than the usual sell, sell, sell on strength.

[skating101]

it seems like noone wants to touch this stock, am i missing some information or something, when is more information about the demerger supposed to be released?

[nikki]

i found this in another chat room


T$ question to pt from traph...lithium.

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Subject: T$ question to pt from traph...lithium.
Stock Code: ADY - ADMIRALTY RESOURCES NL.
Posted: 01/02/07 07:48 Hotcopper Radio: ADY on BoardRoom Radio
Posted By: jak360 Views: 1206
Post #: 1529692 (Start of thread) Sentiment: Buy
IP: 202.12.xxx.xxx Voluntary Disclosure: Stock Held
Hi PT,

Referring to the recent report released today I wish to ask about the Lithium production dates.

As mentioned in the report, is the production date reflecting the actual production of Lithium, completion or delivery? in which case the dates are likely to be some considerable months afterwards, would that be correct?

If this is the way I have interpreted the dates, in that case we are not likely to see ADY's cash flow from Lithium until late 2009 to early 2010.

Have I mis-interpreted this fact?

Regards
Tony
-----------------------------------------------------
Response From Phillip:

Yes you are correct - you have got it totally wrong.

Ponds are being built now as we speak, in 300-400 days the first batch of brine concentrated to 10,000ppm will be available and we would have produced the first batch of potash (a by-product). Remember the cost of potash is nil to produce so the $175 tonne hits the bottom line.

It takes about one day to take the brine and produce 99.5% pure lithium carbonate, 40 mins to produce lithium chloride and another day to produce lithium Hydroxide. We expect to produce it in batches of 76 tonne (see the quarterly report yesterday for mass balances). We will also produce (at this stage) 99.999 computer battery grade to manufacture lithium hexa flurophosphate.

So from July to Sept 2008 if all things are achieved and its a hot summer in 2008 and global warming continues we will have our first 1,000 tonne. And then onwards we will produce about 1,500 tonne of lithium product per month.

However, Japanese order supplies for the year in March, so their FY year is April to March, so by December this year I hope to announce sales contracts for the June 2008-9 production year which is six months production for the Japanese FY (say Sep to Mar), and announce standby L/C and firm orders. I will be using some of these L/C's for finance to complete the project. They will have particular features that allowme to do it.

At present our total opex estimate is $35m, 17,000 tonnes of product at 6,500 tonne comes in at 110.5m, 80,000 tonne of potash at 14m so that gives us an EBITDA of $124m plus SB at say 3.5m tonnes is EBIT 21m so back of the envelop total EBIT is $110, so on 1.1 billion shares thats 10 cents a share - US, pick a multiple and you got the story.

Compute that for 20 years, put a terminal value of $500m for the salar and $200m for SB, do a NPV at say 12% disc rate and see what you get. (remember unlike normal mining projects the salar has an almost infinite life, and SB has so much in prospective tenements it will be a long time before the ore is gone, plus the infrastructure assets we are building, have significant value in Chile).

Thats the story.

cheers from New York

[roland]

Hi, I have been an ADY trader since it was $0.09 and it has been very good to me. We all have a "this is my baby", and this is one of mine :)

My view on ADY is that they have a good resource and a low cost method of of utilising it. You may remember their website a year or so back, scanned copies of articles from South American local newspapers.

It's been quite a good story, a desert salt lake and a pile of rubbish left behind from a previous endeavour and a forward thinking CEO to turn this into an investment that has captured the imaginations of prospective investors.

Lithium is plentiful, but it doesn't have the big bang or prestige of other in vogue resources, but who cares - we need it for batteries, and we will need batteries - like ... forever. At least until the plastic batteries become more affordable (thank you University of NSW).

Little companies like ADY gain a huge advantange over larger players through under capitalisation of infrastructure, like a lot of our furture oilers, iron ore, and gold companies. If you can pull it out of the ground cheaply, then your profit margin is higher and your share income is more attractive.

Where BHP or RIO would build a huge metal and concrete fence to protect a stock pile of material costing millions, ADY dumps a few discarded shipping containers to surround the perimeter - same affect, 1/1000th the price :D

I like ADY for pure "Under-Dog" approach. More power to ADY !!!

[nikki]

any thoughts on the report anyone - dissapointed that santa barbara operation is still without its equipment. hope that it does not get delayed too much longer to cause problems with delivery and buyer.

delay does not seem problematic in terms of delivery but it confirms the problems with having an Australian management team overseeing a chilean operation.

the update on the lithium production is very positive and seems to be on time to generate income and bring in the necessary contracts.

[AussiePaul72]

G'day All,
I've been holding ADY for a while now. The volume has dropped off a bit lately maybe just due to reduction of day traders and has seen the SP settle back a little aswell.
ADY have a number of significant projects and changes in structure on the go at present. I'd be interested to know what others think is required for the SP to breakout over the recent highs and beyond 60c??? All comments and thoughts welcome! :D

[rub92me]

Well, they just got a significant holder on board that bought 79 million shares, mostly above 50 cents if that's any comfort to you and they're unlikely to sell in the short term.
I think that the break-up of the company will possibly generate some interest, and for me it will all depend on how they distribute the value between the iron ore and the Lithium. Prior to that we can expect some initial sales agreement for the Lithium which will further de-risk that part of the operation. At this time there is probably still quite a few people that bought in above 40 cents not too long ago that may think about protecting some profit or get a bit panicky if they bought above 50 cents. I'm in it for the long haul and expect some bumps and dips on the way.

[yangxh]

please see the top 20 major shareholders as at 4th Oct. Most of them are investment banks. Now, ADY has had one of them significantly increased its holding.

[ttnt]

please see the top 20 major shareholders as at 4th Oct. Most of them are investment banks. Now, ADY has had one of them significantly increased its holding.

Those shareholder are the 'nominess' only, not the banks themselves.
Too many trader in this share............................................. ..................

[yangxh]

Those shareholder are the 'nominess' only, not the banks themselves.
Too many trader in this share............................................. ..................

Is Merrill Lynch (recent buyer became a substantial shareholder 8.5%) also on behalf of other investors? I am bit confused as I am new.
From Sept 10 to Oct 26, Merrill Lynch bought total 78,900,000 shares for a total of A$41,248,000 (average price was $0.52 per share). Today's close price was at $0.48 which was at recent support level. From this analysis, my opinion is that ADY is a good buy. Merrill Lynch must be confident in ADY.
Anyone give any suggestions, please? I am learning.

[STRAT]

Is Merrill Lynch (recent buyer became a substantial shareholder 8.5%) also on behalf of other investors? I am bit confused as I am new.
From Sept 10 to Oct 26, Merrill Lynch bought total 78,900,000 shares for a total of A$41,248,000 (average price was $0.52 per share). Today's close price was at $0.48 which was at recent support level. From this analysis, my opinion is that ADY is a good buy. Merrill Lynch must be confident in ADY.
Anyone give any suggestions, please? I am learning.
ADY is a good buy IMO. Todays price is in response to the DOW which is to be expected as ADY is heavily traded by day traders. More bad news from the US may mean ADY is an even better buy some time later this month

[BigJohnny]

Is Merrill Lynch (recent buyer became a substantial shareholder 8.5%) also on behalf of other investors? I am bit confused as I am new.
From Sept 10 to Oct 26, Merrill Lynch bought total 78,900,000 shares for a total of A$41,248,000 (average price was $0.52 per share). Today's close price was at $0.48 which was at recent support level. From this analysis, my opinion is that ADY is a good buy. Merrill Lynch must be confident in ADY.
Anyone give any suggestions, please? I am learning.

More likely is that Merillls is acting as custodian/prime broker for some other institution or fund manger.

[rub92me]

Todays price is in response to the DOW which is to be expected as ADY is heavily traded by day traders. More bad news from the US may mean ADY is an even better buy some time later this month
Retreat yesterday was on relatively low volume, but generally I agree with you. Look what happened in August, with ADY diving with the rest of the market. I got lucky and managed to get some more at 20 cents, but even if you would have bought at 30-35 cents you would be sitting pretty now. If prices were to get hammered that low again then I would consider buying a bit more if I have the cash.

[yangxh]

To me what BHP and RIO merger means that BHP-RIO as one has more power to determine iron ore price rise. It means ADY iron income will increase when ore price rises. Is this correct?

[skating101]

so much for finding strength at 50c its back at 45c. When will there be more news about the demerger such as expected price for new entity again?

[rub92me]

so much for finding strength at 50c its back at 45c. When will there be more news about the demerger such as expected price for new entity again?
Guidance provided by ADY was that the valuation would be a complex exercise and would be completed after Christmas. Demerger is planned for February/March next year. So unlikely to hear anything more on this this year I'm afraid, unless they give us an unexpected Christmas present by completing it earlier than planned:p:

[yangxh]

ADY should have an announcement soon about its Bulman new anomalies. They said in October that it should be out in 4 to 6 weeks time. It is about the 3 new Pb Zn anomalies they discovered.
Anyone knows any other announcement due soon? When will they be about due to release?

[skating101]

Anyone think there is any particular reason for the continuous drop in the share price of ADY recently it just seems to lose a few percent everyday

[nikki]

i have noticed that some people on another forum have been suggesting that it seems like someone is selling big to fund their option buying that is due by today!!

i went onto stocknessmonster.com to see volumes being traded and noticed that a lot of the sales in the past week have been large chunks sold without (apparent) care for SP.

it seems that volumes have significantly dropped today which might suggest that this theory about the options seller is true.

i think the rest of the sells have been due to short term traders getting nervous about the drop in SP b/c of US volitality.

to be honest my concern is that ADY is not down a lot compared the measly 5% drop in the XJO. if the DJIA corrects in the next week (once again) and the XJO follows i suspect ADY SP might be in trouble. :eek:

ALL theoretical off course????

[AussiePaul72]

Anyone think there is any particular reason for the continuous drop in the share price of ADY recently it just seems to lose a few percent everyday

I am a holder and couldn't see any reason for the downturn in the SP over that period. Nikki may have been onto something. I haven't heard any other explanations!
Anyway, whatever the reason, ADY has surged over the last couple of days and closed at 50c today. Back in a strong position. Will be interesting to see what happens tomorrow and through the rest of the week.
I guess we might be getting close to some more news on the lithium and iron ore company split. Anyone know if one of the key dates is coming up soon?
Good luck to all fellow ADY-ers! :D

[roland]

Well, I am very happy with ADY today and it marks my 60th trade since the beginning of 2005. Sad to say I am all out now. I get these stupid emotional attachments to stocks, but ADY has been one of my best all time friends.

Farewell dear friend, see you again if you come back to $0.43 or better.

Good luck long termers!