BDG - Bendigo Mining

[Profitseeker]

Hi,

I have not seen any mention of BDG on the forum which is strange because it is creating a lot of interest at the moment. This stock is performing strongly at the moment. They have just pushed forward their production date. Share price has fallen today so could be a good chance to get in. Does any one hold or have any views on the stock? Do you own research. :)

[Profitseeker]

It is up 8% today. Looks like it is breaking out. :)

[Profitseeker]

Up 16% now to 1.45. Does anyone know why this share is taking off?

[el_ninj0]

Damn it. I was watching them since you posted this first. Disapointed that I didn't see it coming. Could have made a nice profit.

[Profitseeker]

They could fall back to between 1.20-1.25 due to profit taking. That is a trigger for me to invest more. Some brokers have put a valuation of about $2.00 on the stock. I would sell if it reached that though. Do your own research though.

[el_ninj0]

you would buy if it came back down to 1.25?
what makes you so sure its going to go back up?

[Profitseeker]

Mainly because of what i have been reading about the stock. They will begin production in early 2006 and when they do so, I feel that this will push the stock price up to higher than what it currently is.

[Profitseeker]

Price is down.

[el_ninj0]

Price is down.

Sure is, :).

[Profitseeker]

Begining to look good again. Depth is building.

[andrew_c2o]

Yes I bought into this too a few days ago, I believe it will go up quite high eventually

[Profitseeker]

Good to hear. There has been a lot of sudden movement recently. Could be because it is beginning to get media coverage.

[Profitseeker]

Company requested halt. ANy ideas why?

[markrmau]

Reread announcement. Looks like they need more moolah.

[Profitseeker]

Not sure if i like the look of this. Any body get any views on this equity raising?

[markrmau]

Read todays AFR. Some equity managers are saying some good things about BDG.

I think I will buy into any negativity surrounding this announcement. I think it will drop, but it doesn't always.

Note - this is not advice for you to buy,sell or hold this or any other security.

[Profitseeker]

I agree. In the long term this one has to be a win.

[PoINT5]

sourced from huntleys.
Bendigo Mining (BDG) announced the terms of a pro rata equity issue and a simultaneous placement of shares to institutional investors, to raise a total of approximately $140m. The company plans to use the capital raised to fund the continued development of the Bendigo Gold Project. BDG remained unchanged at $1.15.

[markrmau]

BDG remained unchanged at $1.15.
ROFL. Still in trading halt.

Anyone know when it will open?

Expected price approx 94c?

[Profitseeker]

ROFL. Still in trading halt.

Anyone know when it will open?

Expected price approx 94c?


Seems to have done quite well. Price picked up again today. I hope it continues.

[Profitseeker]

Just announced that JP Morgan have increased their substanial shareholding. :p:

[Profitseeker]

International




Friday November 11, 9:43 AM
INTERVIEW:Australia's Bendigo Woos Global Gold Investors

By James Attwood
Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES

SYDNEY (Dow Jones)--Australia's Bendigo Mining Ltd. (BDG.AU) appears to have finally found its way onto the radar screens of global gold investors.

ADVERTISEMENT


Last week Bendigo closed an equity issue that swelled its bank balance by A$133 million to around A$200 million and sets up the company to deliver on its six-year goal of reaching annual gold output of 600,000 ounces.

London-based Merrill Lynch Investments raised its holding in the prospective miner to 10.5% in the issue, while Singapore-based APS Asset Management's participation kept its stake at 12.6%.

The transaction also attracted "one or two" new institutions, reflecting easing concerns over the project's technical risks, said Managing Director Doug Buerger.

"We've got some real heavyweights on the register now so quite clearly the eyes of the gold investors are firmly fixed on Bendigo," Buerger told Dow Jones Newswires.

Until now the market has been wary of Bendigo's bold plan of tapping into an estimated 11 million ounces left underneath the most prolific field in Victoria state's gold rush of the mid-1800s.

A major concern has been the project's "nuggety" and therefore fluctuating grades and the logistics of working a massive ore-body spanning 17 kilometers by four kilometers, much of which lies under populated areas.

Those inherent challenges, sagging gold prices, the dilutionary impact of previous share issues and the exit of major shareholder Harmony Gold Mining Co. (HARJ.J) saw Bendigo's share price sink from A$2.80 in mid-2002 to below A$1 in September this year.

But after spending A$100 million-plus over seven years to "normalize" the project's technical risks, Buerger said the company's fortunes are turning around.

The share price has crept back to around A$1.10 in recent months in line with rising gold prices and is expected gain momentum once the explorer and developer officially becomes a producer. At current market prices the company is valued at A$333 million.

That's scheduled to happen in June when Bendigo fires up a A$54 million processing plant, part of a A$128 million first phase designed to produce an average of 140,000 ounces a year, ramping up to 200,000 ounces over 25 years.

The real pot of gold, however, is in the shape of a A$247 million second mine and plant expected to take output up to 600,000 ounces from 2010-2011.

That would lift Bendigo into mid-tier status and put the company on par with current output levels of Australia's second largest producer Lihir Gold Ltd (LHG.AU).

After a series of cost estimate upgrades, Buerger said the first plant and underground development are on budget and schedule. "Everything points to getting into production by June," he said.

[Profitseeker]

Up 3.20% today. Looking good especialy after the issue of new capital.

[Profitseeker]

Yes lift off. :)

[Profitseeker]

Its breaking out. Anyone take up the share placement and as happy as I am?

[Happy]

I took up the offer with hope that price collapse is not going to wipe out the difference before I dump my parcel.

My initial stop was $0.95 , now parcel will be sold $1.03 with target $1.45 to $1.60

I am surprised, as usually with such a discount price takes quite a dive, well never assume anything.

[serp]

Isn't gold stocks the darling of the asx this year? :P

Personally I think BDG is a good investment, maybe it doesn't have the upside of a year ago.

Family member purchased shares in BDG a few years ago, I bet they are happy now :)

PS - I don't own or ever have owned any BDG.

*EDIT* Haha or not! The SP use to be over two dollars a few years ago! They are probably wishing that it will recover to that sort of level again!

[Happy]

Serp,
Possibly, if they bought 1998 or 1999, probably break even if bought on the dip 2000 or 2001, and not yet if bought between 2002 and 2004

[Profitseeker]

Gold boom boosts interest in miners
Wednesday, 23 November 2005

BENDIGO'S two major miners are cashing in on the booming price of gold.
Bendigo Mining's share price has soared in recent weeks, on the back of an 18-year high in the price of gold.

Yesterday, the company's share price closed at $1.315, after dipping below $1 in May.

There is increasing industry interest as the company remains on track to begin gold production in June, with recent media speculation of a possible takeover bid.

Perseverance Corporation has also benefited as the gold price nears US$500 an ounce, with its share price rising in recent weeks.

Bendigo Mining managing director Doug Buerger said because the company was not yet producing gold, the booming price was not having a major impact.

"We've got the capital we needed to build the mine and the present price is not affecting us, but what is affecting us is the sentiment in gold companies," he said.

"There is a more positive sentiment in wanting to invest in gold companies, and Bendigo Mining is seen as a good alternative for investment, so we are seeing a lot more interest in buying Bendigo Mining shares."

He said the company was not soliciting interest for any takeover bid.

"What we've got to do is focus on building the mine and getting on with that."

Perseverance Corporation managing director Graeme Sloan said the Fosterville mine was expected to produce between 25,000 and 30,000 ounces of gold in the December quarter.

The company is hoping to start its underground operations in late December or early January.

Mr Sloan said the gold price was helping to offset increased production costs.

In the past 12 months, costs had increased between 25 and 35 per cent, he said.

"There are extreme pressures on materials and skilled people, just to name a couple," he said.

"Some companies in the more remote sites of Australia are offering enormous differences in salaries and wages just to attract people, and that's putting lots of cost pressures on everyone else."

[Profitseeker]

Seems to be breaking out today. Yes.

[Profitseeker]

Lift off again today. Is anyone on this enjoying the ride?

[Profitseeker]

Miner prepares for gold production
Wednesday, 11 January 2006. 10:00 (AEDT)Wednesday, 11 January 2006. 09:00 (ACST)Wednesday, 11 January 2006. 09:00 (AEST)Wednesday, 11 January 2006. 10:00 (ACDT)Wednesday, 11 January 2006. 07:00 (AWST)
Bendigo Mining has started stockpiling rock containing gold in preparation for commercial production at its Kangaroo Flat mine in June.

The company plans to boost its permanent work force from 180 to 220 in the next six months for the expansion.

Managing director Doug Buerger says another 100 construction workers are half way through building a $50 million processing plant.

"It's a fairly big processing plant and it's all being housed in a building so we can contain the noise because we are fairly close to residences, so at the moment it's one budget and at the moment it's also on time," he said.

[Profitseeker]

This is going to the moon!

[Prospector]

It is looking particularly fabulous! Big volume, and no production yet. And it was only last Novermber that the SPP was issuing shares for what - 80cents! Glad I bought that lot! It is becoming one of my best performing shares at the moment!

[Happy]

Word of caution is needed too.

Current BDG trend is unsustainable and sooner or later it will be good idea to lock in some profits.

[Profitseeker]

Could be next step for a surge in the share price.


Equity Strategy: Changes to S&P Aussie Indices to be Announced on Friday!

Standard & Poors (S&P) is due to announce the results of their Annual Index review pre-market this Friday. The changes have important implications for stocks as they affect whether an index tracking fund is required to alter their holdings in order to ensure their performance matches that of the index. The changes to the index will take effect as at close of trading on Friday the 17th of March. In the following note the Macquarie Securities Index team postulates which stocks will be affected by the changes.

S&P/ASX 100: The only standout here is the removal of the Ten Network (TEN) to be replaced by Goodman Fielder (GFF). The strong run by Worley (WOR) leading into its result may also result in it replacing Pacific Brands (PBG), although this is more likely to occur at the next review.

S&P/ASX 200: Whilst there are eight stocks currently above the inclusion buffer, the Index team don’t believe S&P will reflect the full number of changes. GFF, SP Ausnet (SPN), Spark Infrastructure (SKICA), Bendigo Mining (BDG) & Babcock & Brown Wind (BBW) are the standout adds, while Alinta Infrastructure Holdings (AIHCA) and Macquarie Media (MMGCA) are likely to be kept in reserve for takeover replacements throughout the quarter. Expected deletions include Ventracor (VCR), Thakral Holdings (THG), Peptech (PTD), Fleetwood (FWD) and MYOB (MYO).

[mlennox]

JP is buying the crap out of this stock lol :D love it

[ace42]

Hi all - my first posting. Live in BGO and have invested heavily in BDG.

As a kid I grew up right in the centre of the richest gold field on earth and saw the decline of mining. Mine after mine shut but it wasn't because the gold had run out. Mines closed because of two factors: 1> The water problem 2> The fact that the price of gold was fixed at 16 pounds and Oz.

Now we have modern pumps (in the old days they lifted the water out in buckets) and a floating gold price.

The old miners (my grandfather amongst them) maintained that there was 3 times as much gold left under the city as what came out. The equation: 22000000 x 3 works out to $US39600000000 :bricks1: (!) (they are really gold ingots) at current prices.

This will mitigate the fact that I missed out on ever enjoying the company of my grandfather who died at the age of 42 (1926) -from miners disease.

Modern understanding of the perils of quartz dust and OH&S will ensure that BDG gives an extraordinary return with safety for all.

Just ask me if I am in for a happy retirement :D

[Profitseeker]

Could be a very good buying opportunity today considering the market conditions and the announcement out this morning.

[Profitseeker]

I was expecting a bounce by now. Thought the reaction was a bit severe but it hasn't recovered. The question that i am asking myself now is do I buy more or reduce my current position. :confused:

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Profit, do you use fundamentals or tech analysis?


I'm not much of a tech, but falling below $1.65/$1.80 was not good as it may signal the start of another bear period for this stock as it did from early 2004,


From a fundie point of view, stock has a mkt cap of $700m (approx) so it would definately be held by funds, also is a good long term exposure to gold, however its resource is a little complex and it has had industrial dispute problems of recent that have caused delays in first gold pour and also messed up with poduction forecasts,

I'd say hold, but its up to you, surely first gold pour will throw a bit of energy into this stock!

[Profitseeker]

Hi,

I try and use a combination of the two. I orginally bought the share .90 and gradually acumulated to 1.20 as I saw the potential in the share as a good investment. My intention has always been to accumulate (whilst keeping a fairly balanced portofolio) as much of this stock as possibility in anticipation of it been in full production as of 2011. However when i saw the stock fall below 2.10 i sold as I technically I thought this showed that the stock could be on the slide. Feelig quite happy that I did. However as i still see the long term prospects of this stock I do want to get back in and I thought I saw resistance at 1.60 and thought that round that level would be a good position to get back in especially with the impending news of gold production. Although I have just seen that it has broken below 1.60 so not feeling so bullish any more and a bit scared that there may be further for this stock to fall before it turns which is why I am thinking of selling my remaining holding. Long term I do belive in this stock 100% though and I am just trying to pick the bottom.

[Profitseeker]

Up today. From a tech point of view if this stock closed above 1.65 would that be a sign that the trend could be reversing.

[rub92me]

I'm a bit befuddled by this stock, as it doesn't seem to want to recover from the May free-fall nearly as well as the other gold mine explorers. I noticed also that one of the institutional investors had been off-loading quite a bit of it as well. Fundamentally still 100% behind this one so I bought another parcel for around 1.63, with quite a tight stop though. Now if only the gold price would do another 20% rise...

[Profitseeker]

I bought some at 1.61 with a long term investment view. I am not trading it at the moment as I feel it is just ranging. If it breaks through 1.65 and looks like holding I would buy some to trade with anticipation of it going on a little run. I am confused as well that the stock has fallen so far and also not recovered. Sure production has been delayed but it is not far now so I would have expected it to get back over $2.00. I think it will and once it starts it will get there with speed.

[Profitseeker]

Dissapointing opening considering the price of gold. i was hoping it would be testing the resistance around 1.65

[kennas]

I've been watching this for a turnaround profit. Looks like a long slippery slope on the chart with the next real support level way down at $1.30. :eek:

Probably just needs some good news for a turn around. First gold pour should provide that surely. When's that due?

[Profitseeker]

Mid July- End July with production beginning in September. DO you really think it could slide to $1.30?

[kennas]

Technically, that's the next support area, but it has shown some good signs recently with the bunching around $1.65 and the flatening and slight rise in MACD, but you want to see some positive divergence above the trend line. Does look oversold though.

[Profitseeker]

Thanks Kennas. I am looking for a break past 1.65 as a sign that it has rounded.

[Kipp]

Technically, that's the next support area, but it has shown some good signs recently with the bunching around $1.65 and the flatening and slight rise in MACD, but you want to see some positive divergence above the trend line. Does look oversold though.

Kennas, what does a Descending Triangle pattern represent? Is it a bullish or Bearish signal?

[kennas]

With descending triangles there is a greater probability for the price to break down out of the triangle than to breakout and rally to higher prices.

However, general market forces can alter any 'probability' and BDG having just poured it's first bar yesterday, and WWIV about to start in the Middle East, could be a pretty good driver upward.

[Kipp]

With descending triangles there is a greater probability for the price to break down out of the triangle than to breakout and rally to higher prices.

However, general market forces can alter any 'probability' and BDG having just poured it's first bar yesterday, and WWIV about to start in the Middle East, could be a pretty good driver upward.
Thanks Kenna... all I needed to know.

[Profitseeker]

Glittering outlook for stocksAnthony Black

July 16, 2006 12:00am
Article from: Sunday Herald SunFont size: + -
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ANALYSTS are bullish about gold and oil, particularly at a time of Middle East tension, Indian train bombings and nuclear development programs.

They say high gold and oil prices paint a bright investment outlook for several related stocks in the next 18 months.
The gold price has risen by more 30 per cent this year and was trading at more than $US666 an ounce yesterday. Sean Conlan, of Macquarie Equities, forecasts the gold price to be at $US833 an ounce in 12 months.

"The key fundamental drivers of the current rally remain strong -- global liquidity, fund buying and inflationary fears," Mr Conlan says.

"In addition, this week's conflict between Israel and its neighbours, coupled with the Iranian and North Korean nuclear development programs, have also added further impetus to the gold price.

"Given our bullish stance regarding the gold price in the next 12 months, we expect the Australian gold sector to outperform the broader market."

Mr Conlan says Middle East tension is pushing the oil price towards $US80 a barrel.

"But other events are worth noting," he says. "Political issues in Nigeria are placing constraints on Shell's production supply. The US hurricane season is upon us and is forecast to be one of the worst in history. This may affect the oil supply from the Gulf of Mexico. Russian production growth is beginning to wane in response to the Yukos oil company carve-up hampering foreign investment. Demand from China, though slowing, remains robust."

BENDIGO MINING: Mr Conlan put a 12-month target of $2.50 a share on Bendigo Mining, which closed at $1.56 on Friday.

He says the company forecasts production of between 70,000 and 90,000 ounces next year from a resource base of 11 million ounces.

"Bendigo will earn more from a higher gold price because it is unhedged," he says.

AGINCOURT RESOURCES: Mr Conlan says Agincourt is diversified and is increasing gold production to meet growing demand.

"It offers good value and is trading at a discount to its peers of the same size," he says.

LIHIR GOLD: Carey Smith, of State One Stockbroking, says the PNG producer will lift production from 800,000 ounces a year to a million ounces in the next two years in response to stronger global demand for jewellery, particularly from China and India.

"Gold for more than 1000 years has been considered a safe haven in uncertain times," he says. "It can be easily converted into anything and is a hedge against inflation."

WOODSIDE PETROLEUM: Oil at $US100 a barrel is a distinct possibility and Woodside is Australia's biggest oil and gas producer, Mr Smith says. It has big reserves to meet growing export orders.

AED OIL: Mr Smith says AED will lift production from 15,000 barrels a day to 28,000 barrels in the next 12 months. The company is partially cushioned against oil price falls as 1.2 million barrels are hedged at $US72 for the next two years.

[Profitseeker]

Looks like buyers are building this morning although the sellers are still sitting there. I hope there are just enough buyers to smash through 1.65.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Downtrend has continued,

I see strong support between $1.30 - $1.43

So will be interesting to see how stock fares over the coming weeks

[rub92me]

I'm stopped out. May come back in at 1.00 but looking for other opportunities first to make my money back...

[Profitseeker]

Downtrend has continued,

I see strong support between $1.30 - $1.43

So will be interesting to see how stock fares over the coming weeks

Glad I took a long term investment view on this one. If it breaks 1.40 I think 1.20 is the next support level. With production little over a month away it does blow my mind the way the share price is behaving though. As anyone got any idea why this is occuring? I hope there are no skeletons in the closet.

[Profitseeker]

I'm stopped out. May come back in at 1.00 but looking for other opportunities first to make my money back...


At what price did you get in?

[rub92me]

At what price did you get in?
Hehehe. Don't rub it in :D

[Profitseeker]

Hehehe. Don't rub it in :D

Ah ok. Sorry.

[Profitseeker]

Good bullish announcement out. More Gold discoverd which hopefully will increase the lifetime of the mine. Hopefully the rot will stop now and the bottom is found.

[nelly]

NEW gold producer Bendigo Mining has forecast a slight increase in capital costs at its namesake project in Victoria, and confirmed its 70,000-90,000 ounce production estimate in the current financial year following recent construction delays.

Capital costs are put at $A60-65 million, compared with an earlier forecast this year of $57 million.

The Melbourne-based company said its 600,000 tonne per annum plant was now 95% complete and that full ore commissioning was set to be completed by the end of September.

Previously, the company was predicting the project would reach a rate of 120,000 ounce per annum by June, and build to 200,000ozpa three years thereafter.

Full-scale production of 600,000ozpa via a second mine and processing plant was expected to begin in 2011-12, though commencement of work on the second mine is now not forecast to begin until the December quarter as the company awaits regulatory approval.

Bendigo said the impact of this delay on the development schedule would be assessed once the approval has been received.

Shares in Bendigo were up 1c (0.7%) at $1.47 in morning trade. The stock was at $2.55 just over two months ago.

From Mining News

Cheers :)

[Profitseeker]

Nice open. Looking good.

[Profitseeker]

Around the Markets: Big returns sought in small mines
By Madelene Pearson and Tan Hwee Ann Bloomberg News

Published: July 28, 2006


MELBOURNE Surging gold prices this year have put bullion miners among the best-performing Australian stocks. And some investors are thinking anything but big.

The smallest producers among them, including Bendigo Mining and Agincourt Resources, now are set to outperform such giants as Newcrest Mining, said Michael McCormick, a manager at Leyland Private Asset Management who owns shares of Bendigo and Agincourt.

Those two companies, along with Pan Australian Resources, Sino Gold and Dominion Mining, are exploring for bullion or starting production. Their stock prices should take off as output begins and the price of the precious metal stays high, McCormick said.

Jim Rogers, an investor who foresaw the start of a commodity rally in 1999, predicted in April that gold was likely to soar to $1,000 an ounce, or 28.3 grams, from $630 now. McCormick said that gold would approach the $873 record reached in 1980, possibly this year.

"There's still a huge amount of value in the Australian gold sector," said Rogers, a Sydney-based money manager. In any gold market, the strength usually starts with big companies and eventually reaches the smaller ones, he said. "You know you are in a bull market when the smaller ones are starting to run."

The stock of producers of raw materials including gold have risen 9.1 percent this year, based on their industry group within the Standard & Poor's ASX 300 benchmark index of Australian stocks. The index has gained 5.2 percent.

Bendigo, which is based in Melbourne, has fallen 10 percent and Agincourt, based in Perth, is 22 percent lower.

Other nascent producers that McCormick holds include Leviathan Resources, which is down 36 percent. Ballarat Goldfields, which is on his "watch list," is down 31 percent. Prices for start-up producers have fallen as other gold stocks pared their gains this year because the start-ups are thinly traded. That exacerbates market swings, he said.

Gold stocks also are among the best performers this year in South Africa and Canada as well. Gold Fields, based in Johannesburg, has risen 29 percent, and Bema Gold of Canada is up 88 percent.

In the United States, 15 of 20 gold mining companies with market values greater than $50 million are outperforming the S&P's 500 index.

Bullion futures are up 24 percent this year and reached a 26-year high of $732 an ounce in May. Oxiana, the second-biggest Australian gold miner by market value, has jumped 80 percent this year, among the best gains in the S&P/ASX 300. Resolute Mining has advanced 52 percent.

Companies that have not hedged, or locked in the price of the gold they expect to produce, and have output of 100,000 ounces or more a year will be among the best performers, McCormick said.

Newcrest, the biggest Australian gold miner by market value, produced 1.53 million ounces in fiscal 2006. The company has forward- sold about 88 percent of its forecast 2007 gold output, Merrill Lynch said in a report this week.

Bendigo Mining, which produced its first gold this month, is forecasting output of 200,000 ounces a year over three years, reaching 600,000 ounces a year at full production. It has not locked in future prices.

Ballarat Goldfields, which began gold output in December, is targeting production of 100,000 ounces a year, increasing to 200,000 ounces in three years. Its shares are up 10 percent in the past year.

Shares of smaller gold companies like Leviathan and Bendigo are trading at as little as half their net present value, giving them more potential for higher returns, said Pieter Bruinstroop, a commodities analyst at Ord Minnett in Melbourne. Net present value is a calculation of the current value of expected cash flows.

If Rogers's prediction of $1,000 gold is right, the rally in gold shares will not end soon. Rogers, who wrote the book "Hot Commodities," published in 2004, did not predict when the metal would reach that price.

McCormick said that the start-up miners would be the shares to own in that environment.

"You get more leverage from the emerging producers," he said.

MELBOURNE Surging gold prices this year have put bullion miners among the best-performing Australian stocks. And some investors are thinking anything but big.

The smallest producers among them, including Bendigo Mining and Agincourt Resources, now are set to outperform such giants as Newcrest Mining, said Michael McCormick, a manager at Leyland Private Asset Management who owns shares of Bendigo and Agincourt.

Those two companies, along with Pan Australian Resources, Sino Gold and Dominion Mining, are exploring for bullion or starting production. Their stock prices should take off as output begins and the price of the precious metal stays high, McCormick said.

Jim Rogers, an investor who foresaw the start of a commodity rally in 1999, predicted in April that gold was likely to soar to $1,000 an ounce, or 28.3 grams, from $630 now. McCormick said that gold would approach the $873 record reached in 1980, possibly this year.

"There's still a huge amount of value in the Australian gold sector," said Rogers, a Sydney-based money manager. In any gold market, the strength usually starts with big companies and eventually reaches the smaller ones, he said. "You know you are in a bull market when the smaller ones are starting to run."

The stock of producers of raw materials including gold have risen 9.1 percent this year, based on their industry group within the Standard & Poor's ASX 300 benchmark index of Australian stocks. The index has gained 5.2 percent.

Bendigo, which is based in Melbourne, has fallen 10 percent and Agincourt, based in Perth, is 22 percent lower.

Other nascent producers that McCormick holds include Leviathan Resources, which is down 36 percent. Ballarat Goldfields, which is on his "watch list," is down 31 percent. Prices for start-up producers have fallen as other gold stocks pared their gains this year because the start-ups are thinly traded. That exacerbates market swings, he said.

Gold stocks also are among the best performers this year in South Africa and Canada as well. Gold Fields, based in Johannesburg, has risen 29 percent, and Bema Gold of Canada is up 88 percent.

In the United States, 15 of 20 gold mining companies with market values greater than $50 million are outperforming the S&P's 500 index.

Bullion futures are up 24 percent this year and reached a 26-year high of $732 an ounce in May. Oxiana, the second-biggest Australian gold miner by market value, has jumped 80 percent this year, among the best gains in the S&P/ASX 300. Resolute Mining has advanced 52 percent.

Companies that have not hedged, or locked in the price of the gold they expect to produce, and have output of 100,000 ounces or more a year will be among the best performers, McCormick said.

Newcrest, the biggest Australian gold miner by market value, produced 1.53 million ounces in fiscal 2006. The company has forward- sold about 88 percent of its forecast 2007 gold output, Merrill Lynch said in a report this week.

Bendigo Mining, which produced its first gold this month, is forecasting output of 200,000 ounces a year over three years, reaching 600,000 ounces a year at full production. It has not locked in future prices.

Ballarat Goldfields, which began gold output in December, is targeting production of 100,000 ounces a year, increasing to 200,000 ounces in three years. Its shares are up 10 percent in the past year.

Shares of smaller gold companies like Leviathan and Bendigo are trading at as little as half their net present value, giving them more potential for higher returns, said Pieter Bruinstroop, a commodities analyst at Ord Minnett in Melbourne. Net present value is a calculation of the current value of expected cash flows.

If Rogers's prediction of $1,000 gold is right, the rally in gold shares will not end soon. Rogers, who wrote the book "Hot Commodities," published in 2004, did not predict when the metal would reach that price.

McCormick said that the start-up miners would be the shares to own in that environment.

"You get more leverage from the emerging producers," he said.

[Profitseeker]

The tide seems to have changed.

[Profitseeker]

I hate being patient. :banghead:

[ace42]

Hi there,

BDG will be producing gold within the next 8 weeks - I live just 2 k from the mine (processing plant and it is about to go up and running. I can't work out why the price has drpped over th epast few weeks but it will surely fly upwards when the gold starts to pour. Have patience as all things come to those who wait!

[blueroo]

Annual Report to be released today so hopefully we will see a bit of upside on this languid stock. We certainly deserve it! :(

[ace42]

Hi, good tings come to those who wait. BDG is a long term investment and worth sticking with - the maths 600,000 ozs per year x gold price/425000000 works out to a preety decent deal. I think you will find from the report that the mine is about to go into production as its processing plant is nearly completed. The good metal will flow shortly. I hope that we all enjoy the benefits.

Regards ace

[Profitseeker]

Annual Report to be released today so hopefully we will see a bit of upside on this languid stock. We certainly deserve it! :(


Arrrhh. no mention of when production commences.

[ace42]

Hi blueroo. Bendigo has just this moment released there 2006 financial report and a media release. It contains details of production schedules etc.

Regards ace

[blueroo]

Yes, things seem to be going nicely for them.

Understatement by the MD in saying "I'm expecting a marked improvement in our bottom line relative to that achieved last year."

From a loss of $13mil last financial year, with no production and only "expecting a marked improvement" with at least 6 months of full production for the next financial year sounds like they are suffering a severe shortage of confidence down Bendigo way.

70,000 to 90,000 ozs. @ $350 average = ~$28mil 2006-07 year
Full production - 600,000 ozs. @ $350 average = ~$210mil 2007-08

Assuming of course gold remains around AUD$800.

[Profitseeker]

[QUOTE=blueroo]Yes, things seem to be going nicely for them.

Understatement by the MD in saying "I'm expecting a marked improvement in our bottom line relative to that achieved last year."

Isn't that because they will start further developement of the mine?

[ace42]

Blueroo, there is 425,290,255 shares in BDG. A gold flow of $210,000,000 works out to 49 cents a share. With the price at 149 this will be a raw return of 32%. I know that this is a rough figure but it points to the potential of BDG to make good returns

regards ace

[blueroo]

Blueroo, there is 425,290,255 shares in BDG. A gold flow of $210,000,000 works out to 49 cents a share. With the price at 149 this will be a raw return of 32%. I know that this is a rough figure but it points to the potential of BDG to make good returns

regards ace
My thoughts exactly Ace42 :)

Profitseeker:
Yes you are right. It was my attempt at sarcasm because I was trying emphasize that he is stating the obvious that results are expected to be better because they are now a producer. They will want to give the game away if they are not better!

I still don't know if I got my meaning across :banghead:

[ace42]

Hi blueroo - I certainly hope that they will do better - I have a lot of money on this. Word is out around Bendigo that they will go to $18 when full production hits. We must keep in mind the relatively low number of shares in the company - say comapred to Ballarat Mining ( they have over 1.5 billion and nowhere as much gold. The "18" comes as an opinion of some big the knobs out at Perseverance Mining - aother mine located near Bendigo) I hope that they know what they are talking about Cheers ace

[Profitseeker]

My thoughts exactly Ace42 :)

Profitseeker:
Yes you are right. It was my attempt at sarcasm because I was trying emphasize that he is stating the obvious that results are expected to be better because they are now a producer. They will want to give the game away if they are not better!

I still don't know if I got my meaning across :banghead:

Ok. Sorry. I understand now.

[ace42]

Hi Blueroo, just thought i would mention another stock - Cazaly Resources. Are you familar with this company? I have quite a bit of money in there after hanging on after a tenement that they applied for was rejected by Bowler, the WA Mining Minister.

Cazaly have since had legal advice to the effect that what the minister did was not at one with the WA mining act. They have been given the right toa judicial review and if they succeed the shares will go back through the roof.

Have a look at the CAZ home site and a read of the legal opinion so as to familarise yourself with it all (I am assuming that you are unaware of it all). Let me know what you think (if you think that you have the legal commonsense to make a reasonable judgement). There could be money to be made here. My impression after reading the legal opinion is that CAZ can't lose.

regards ace

[Profitseeker]

I am thinking of picking some cfds to offload on the announcement of production. i think there could be a nice up swing when that happens.

[ace42]

I am a novice - what the hell are "cfd's"

ace

[chennyleeeee]

I might be wrong here but I read in their announcements a whiel abck that 600, 000 ounce/year is what they hope to achieve in 6 years time. But for the next 5 years, it would be just less than 200, 000 oz/yr on average. They are hoping to achieve $200 oz cost but I would say it would be about 450 oz cost for the next 5 years. (project update 28/06/2006) Gold being about $600 at the moment. $150 profit per oz, we would get roughly $30 million on average for the next 5 years. This gives it about a P/E of 20 since the market cap is about 600 million. I guess this isnt too bad but it wont be another 6 years until Bendigo starts to run at full capacity and we wont really know what might happen in 6 years time.

Over the next few years, Gold prices might tumble, reducing its profits substantially.

CHENNY

[blueroo]

Cazaly have since had legal advice to the effect that what the minister did was not at one with the WA mining act. They have been given the right toa judicial review and if they succeed the shares will go back through the roof.
Evening Ace,
I used to be in the Comsec chatroom and all the talk was about CAZ and about how good Shovelanna was. It was ramped/pumped day and night until Bowler made his remarkable announcement.

I'm not sure about taking on the big boys in a court as they have bucket loads of cash they can throw at appeals, etc. It could be tied up for years, but for all investors/speculators sakes, I hope not.

I have a couple of speccies already and don't wish to take on another at this stage. I wish you luck with it.

[canaussieuck]

I am a novice - what the hell are "cfd's"

ace

CFD's are Contracts for Difference. They are a derivitive that can be traded like options. They are highly leveraged, meaning that you can control a large amount of shares with a relatively small amount of money. There is plenty of info on CFD's on the net.

CFD's offer an experienced trader a way to control allot shares with less funds. But since you could get a call for those funds, if the stock goes against your predictiions, you really must be able to risk most of the funds anyway.

You need to have a very good understanding of share trading first, backed up with a very sound risk management system before trying this.

I have been tempted to get into CFD's myself but have deemed myself not ready yet. Etrade and other sites will want a minimum account bal. of 10k before allowing you to start trading CFD's.

All that said, CFD's offer an experienced trader exposure to large trades using smaller sums of capital, potential increasing gains.....and potentially...losses.

Hope this helps.

[Profitseeker]

I might be wrong here but I read in their announcements a whiel abck that 600, 000 ounce/year is what they hope to achieve in 6 years time. But for the next 5 years, it would be just less than 200, 000 oz/yr on average. They are hoping to achieve $200 oz cost but I would say it would be about 450 oz cost for the next 5 years. (project update 28/06/2006) Gold being about $600 at the moment. $150 profit per oz, we would get roughly $30 million on average for the next 5 years. This gives it about a P/E of 20 since the market cap is about 600 million. I guess this isnt too bad but it wont be another 6 years until Bendigo starts to run at full capacity and we wont really know what might happen in 6 years time.

Over the next few years, Gold prices might tumble, reducing its profits substantially.

CHENNY

I think you right Chenny. The big upside I see is in a takeover bid while over goldies can use script.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

BDG is looking peeeerrfeeeect at the moment for a T/A trade on Monday at open with volume confirmation.

Not actually sure on BDG'S fundamentals though just purely a chart trade!

Anyone else agree?

[canaussieuck]

It does look like the early stages of a breakout but i would like to see more volume and another long candle breaking out of the upper B.Band before i jumped in.
The gold price has been slowly trending up the last week, and could be contributing to some price gains in the producers. If i were to look for a gold share i think i would go for LHG, but we need to see a strong rally in the gold price.

:2twocents

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

It does look like the early stages of a breakout but i would like to see more volume and another long candle breaking out of the upper B.Band before i jumped in.
The gold price has been slowly trending up the last week, and could be contributing to some price gains in the producers. If i were to look for a gold share i think i would go for LHG, but we need to see a strong rally in the gold price.

:2twocents

Dont like LHG at all.

BDG has had a long retrace and I am assuming that its breakout should be strong. On the charts it is a perfect trade for Monday as long as it breaks with volume. I don't actually know much about BDG, just stating that a chart trade dosen't get much better

[Profitseeker]

Yep. Strong finish. I have followed this stock for a long time now and when it bolts; it bolts and it looks like it is getting ready to do so. ;)

[Profitseeker]

I think we will see at least 1.70 this week.

[Profitseeker]

Whoa. Make that 1.80

[canaussieuck]

Looking like a breakout now! Great volume.

[Profitseeker]

I think we will see 1.80 today. :D

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

I think we will see 1.80 today. :D

Probably soften up a bit, not as strong a break/momentum as Friday charted.
Going to sell out today!

[Profitseeker]

Big seller appeared. Not you freeballing is it?

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Big seller appeared. Not you freeballing is it?

BDG is great value, Profitseeker,you should buy some more!.

No seriously that is me, should get a few munches.

[Profitseeker]

BDG is great value, Profitseeker,you should buy some more!.

No seriously that is me, should get a few munches.


Wish I had more funds. i would love to munch your shares. ;)

[Profitseeker]

Ouch. hopefully the big seller has finished now.

[kennas]

BDG coming into buy territory for me. Gold taking a hit offering a buying opp imo. Should find a little support at these levels with downside risk limited now. Should be very good support at $1.15/1.25. Looks to have been sacrificed for some reason. Perhaps the meteoric rise early in the year has just been reversed for the short term. At around $1.35 is hitting what might be a long term trend line too.

[kennas]

Just picked a few up at $1.39. Hoping for gold bounce!

[kennas]

Citigroup and Macquarie have $2.50 price targets on it.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Just picked a few up at $1.39. Hoping for gold bounce!


Jumped on board again today also as I sold out of these guys a couple of weeks back and I do like them!.

[Profitseeker]

Gold up. Production looming. Attention in the media. Some big buyers in the market depth. Could the expected surge be on soon?

[Profitseeker]

Annoucement out. Commercial Production has begun. It will be interesting to see what it does to the share price tomorrow.

[kennas]

Annoucement out. Commercial Production has begun. It will be interesting to see what it does to the share price tomorrow.

Oil and gold down overnight will temper any excitement today (unfortunately) I think. :(

[Profitseeker]

What a joke. Patience is a virtue though.

[Bullion]

I luckily sold out yesterday at 1.405... may look to get back in once gold settles a little...

[kennas]

My out is around $1.25. So, maybe I'll be out this arvo! :eek:

Gold might settle at $570 or even head to $540. After that, north again. The EW dudes are thinking that too I think.

[Profitseeker]

I thought historically gold surged in october though? Is this true and is a surge still on the cards according to the charts?

[kennas]

Ouch. 6% down. $1.31. Looking sick.

Company announces it's just started commercial production, JP Morgan up their stake to 12% and wham! Obviously being unhedged is dangerous when gold slips a few $$$.

$1.25 doesn't even look safe to me now. Maybe $1.20 and then $1.00 is possible.

Obviously, if gold bounces this will too......

[YOUNG_TRADER]

If $1.30 gives (ie down to say $1.20 for a few days) then I see 80c as next stop down,


Sean you get my PM?

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Certainly teetering on its SP support level at the moment, even a couple of cents below it at todays close.
Golds not to flash ATM, XMJ copped a hammering today and most gold stocks are just hanging in their.
BDG's not the only one looking a bit shakey, BSG copped a hammering today, SBM is at its support, LHG had a bad day, as with as with the other goldies.

Will be interesting to see what tommorow brings for BDG, can it actually tank even further (don't think so!, unless the bottom falls out of gold). More than likely it will have a small rebound to the mid $1.30's, Today's SP fall seems a bit overdone. BDG's seems to have a lot of potential as a junior.

If it BDG falls below $1.25, I reckon a lot of stops will get hit and the SP will look sad for sure, wouldnt want to be holding below $1.25.

[rub92me]

Whoa, look at what just happened with this one... Down grading of some of the resource by one third...

[finnsk]

If it BDG falls below $1.25, I reckon a lot of stops will get hit and the SP will look sad for sure, wouldnt want to be holding below $1.25.
In freefall at the moment there most be something bad happening :eek:
Was about to buy this one the other day thought I better read what other people had of opinion here on ASF. Thank you very much for your posts :)

Finnsk

[kennas]

Ouch.

Bounced off $0.95, down at the lower support level. Oversold I think. Can't imagine there being too much more selling from down here. The lowest anyone has paid for this stock over the past 2 years is about $0.85.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

Ouch.

Bounced off $0.95, down at the lower support level. Oversold I think. Can't imagine there being too much more selling from down here. The lowest anyone has paid for this stock over the past 2 years is about $0.85.

Traded BDG a few times,done the fundamentals on it and I like it!.
Had a quick read of the announcement, seems that the third downgrade on its resource might just be on the perimeters.

Reckon todays reaction is overdone, on fairly low volume and it should bounce.

Anyway didn't have much time to make up my mind and I'm in for the big punt, heres hoping it bounces, bloody cheap at these prices.

My opinion only, make up your own mind.

[tarnor]

great example of how TA could have saved ya @ss

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

great example of how TA could have saved ya @ss


It did save me at $1.32, thats not to say I don't like it at 98c.

Still think its pretty good value at todays prices. A lot of volume though and big sellers, with no quick rebound.

See what pans out in the next few days, may have to eat humble pie on this one.

[rub92me]

Sliding even further now after the hammering on Monday. Was thinking of getting back in around 1.00 but glad I waited a bit. Hard to pick the bottom on this one; I think I'll wait for some positive news first...

[Bullion]

Wow... managed to get out at 1.405 before the slide...

[kennas]

Too many instos in this to see it slide too much. IMO.

I'm still holding from a buy at $1.39.....

I didn't buy this to 'trade' however, so didn't follow any trading rules when it tanked. (if I could have even sold) I normally sell 10% down.

Don't hold much of this though.

[yogi-in-oz]

:)

Hi folks,

BDG ..... fwiw, it should finish 2006 on a very strong note !~!

..... and BDG is a typical example of the dilemma that faces
all traders, when a stock falls off its perch ..... that is, at
which point do we re-enter this market???

If we consider the price axis alone, then our TA will be
focused on a PRICE level that may have been historical
support ..... ..... at the lower edge of a trading channel,
for example.

Tools for analyzing the price axis seem to be endless, but
even if the price level from our TA proves to be correct, how
long will BDG bounce along on its lows, before lifting into
the next upswing ..... ???

Maybe, if we do some analysis of the TIME axis and marry
it to our analysis of the PRICE axis, we may be able to
come up with a better entry, BEFORE the next rally comes
along.

As time moves on, confirm your regular BDG analysis with
the following time cycles:

25102006 ..... minor and positive (intraday move only)

30-31102006 ..... 2 minor cycles here .....

03-06112006 ..... minor

21112006 ..... minor (intraday)

23112006 ..... significant and positive - finances???

30112006 ..... positive spotlight on BDG ..... :)

13122006 ..... significant and positive news here???

15-19122006 ..... 1 major, positive cycle and 2 minor cycles


27-29122006 ..... 2 cycles and a strong rally here ... ???

In January 2007, BDG still should stiil be well supported,
but February 2007 will likely bring the next slide in price.

happy days

yogi

:)

=====

[Profitseeker]

Rumours flying that BDG might be the ones merging with BGF. If this is true I wonder if it is actually a good thing for BDG. BGF seem to be encountering a lot of problems getting their gold out of the ground.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

There really has been alot of consolidation going on in the Gold sector, with LHG going for BGF, SED taken out, and LVR and PSV merging,

I think BDG is the next target

Its funny they can't seem to find enough Gold so why not just buy it at really cheap EV/oz

I'm punting it

[YOUNG_TRADER]

BDG has held up amazingly well after intial crash through $1, it has held 95c-$1.05 on the back of falling gold price and huge selling/liquidation by its 3rd largest shareholder,

Once APS's selling is done I think this will easily sail back to $1.30 intially before moving higher, as Kennas said in the LHG thread, an upsurge in the gold price is just around the corner, after US elections (the powers that B will stop molesting prices and fixing mkts after this point)

[kennas]

BDG should have a lot of support at $1.00. Can't imagine it dropping far lower than this, pending more bad news. Next to be consolidated I reckon YT.

[Profitseeker]

Good finish to the day and could climb more tomorrow if gold keeps going strong tonight. Could be good short term news while we wait for the takeover.

[kennas]

Good finish to the day and could climb more tomorrow if gold keeps going strong tonight. Could be good short term news while we wait for the takeover.

Taking over LVR has thrown a little spanner in the works for a takeover I think. Mightn't be a good time for anyone to be picking them up....Having said that, down from $2.50, this must have had the uler run over it at a time when it's just starting to produce, unhedged with POG consensus going north over the next 2 years....Hopefully NCM or LHG buy them before they are taken over..

[kennas]

I'm out. Nothing really positive in the ann for me. I'm waiting for it to recover a bit now. This might be the bottom, but there's scope for more disappointments.

[Profitseeker]

In a trading halt. Looks like they are going to need money straight away!

[blueroo]

I think it odd that they would need money straight away. I thought I read in their report that they had $58mil cash at the end of September. Must be big spenders :confused:

[MiningGuru]

Maybe worth picking up tomorrow if it drops substantialy!

I believe it has a long term future.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I'm out. Nothing really positive in the ann for me. I'm waiting for it to recover a bit now. This might be the bottom, but there's scope for more disappointments.


You reckon placements and SPP will make it tank?

p.s. if you've got CFD's on this thing can you take up SPP? Wouldn't think so as another party (IG Markets) owns the shares, interesting to see how it will work

[kennas]

You reckon placements and SPP will make it tank?

p.s. if you've got CFD's on this thing can you take up SPP? Wouldn't think so as another party (IG Markets) owns the shares, interesting to see how it will work

Hard to tell YT. Market sentiment seems to be back on gold in general, so might hold up. Macquarie and Goldman behind it so should get the placement funded pretty easily.

11m oz resource along 5 lines below an area that did produce 22m oz, so it's there. Still 5 years from full production, so it's a waiting game.

They wouldn't want to come out with too many more 'bad news' updates.

Short term, or long term view?

If it does tank, that would be my queue to buy back in. And I reckon some institutions would be looking to take a stake at any lower prices, because the long term prospects are there.

[mikegant]

is there ever any good news when there is a trading halt, or is it always bad?

[kennas]

is there ever any good news when there is a trading halt, or is it always bad?

The trading halt is just about announcing the capital raising and allowing the market so soak up the information. Doesn't have to be a bad thing. The information provided by Bendigo in their ann is already known to the market, so probably no effect.

One good thing was their emphasis that their recent downgrade of the reserve estimate did not effect the overall inferred estimate of 11m oz.

[bvbfan]

so another capital raising

When I started following this company back in 2001 it was around 15-20c, which would be about $1.50- $2.00 in current prices.

Gold has gone from under $300 to $600 yet these shares have nerly halved. Bang up job management.

No wonder Harmony walked away, something is not quite right either with the reserves (and extracting them) or management or both

I do not hold but continue to watch, maybe at 50c (5c) I will be interested again

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Well the Insto's were more than happy to pick up 60m+ shares at 80c to raise $50m THATS A DAMN QUICK PLACEMENT!

Shows faith, I'm happy that it wasn't lower than 80c as this is the last level of support, with raising done here it will become a very strong level of support

GOLD up to $620+

[kennas]

Well the Insto's were more than happy to pick up 60m+ shares at 80c to raise $50m THATS A DAMN QUICK PLACEMENT!

Shows faith, I'm happy that it wasn't lower than 80c as this is the last level of support, with raising done here it will become a very strong level of support

GOLD up to $620+

I agree Sam. $0.80 was going to be the last stand for BDG, and for instos to jump in so quick, it's very positive. When the dust settles after being back trading I might be CFDing this myself. Hopefully, gold holds, tests $620 on the downside, bounces and then becomes new support and return of the gold bull. Too early to tell yet.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

lol, my GSL was 83c on my CFD trade,


I rang up at 9.58am and asked them to move it to 79c

LOL, I'd be stopped out otherwise,


HANGING ON TO THIS TRADE BY THE SCRUFF ON MY NECK!!!!!!!!!!!!!

[The Mint Man]

hey kennas & young Trader,
Just wondering what your thoughts are on this one ATM?, got down to $0.805 today. Although the whole sector & market was down.
For the record I got in a couple of days ago.

Thanks in advance, Cheers.

[kennas]

hey kennas & young Trader,
Just wondering what your thoughts are on this one ATM?, got down to $0.805 today. Although the whole sector & market was down.
For the record I got in a couple of days ago.

Thanks in advance, Cheers.

MM,

With the placement at $0.80, you'd think there's limited downside.

Risks would be another resource downgrade (even though their 'downgrade' was just the reserves and did not effect the total 11m oz measured JORC) or POG being smashed. I think POG is heading back up now, but it's too early to say that with absolute confidence. If it breaks $640, then I think the down/sideways trend is over.

Upside risk is $US dollar weakness sending POG significantly higher, and how about a takeover offer? Come on NCM, NEM, or AGG - time to pounce!

I have not bought back in yet. Sill waiting for the dust to settle.

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

so another capital raising

When I started following this company back in 2001 it was around 15-20c, which would be about $1.50- $2.00 in current prices.

Gold has gone from under $300 to $600 yet these shares have nerly halved. Bang up job management.

No wonder Harmony walked away, something is not quite right either with the reserves (and extracting them) or management or both

I do not hold but continue to watch, maybe at 50c (5c) I will be interested again


Management Quotes:
'Might decrease perimeter reserves 30 percent, but that might have no effect on total reserves', ' Management is on a learning learning curve, learning as we go!', that second ones a beauty. Gotta say the insto's must be pissed that some turkey on a learning curve is managing a Company with a 500m cap ( at least it was prior to his learning curve).

I've got a bit of coin in BDG and I'm certainly not impressed with management, I wonder if the CEO has returned from his sick leave (probably induced by his uneccesarily cloudy last announcement).

Gotta say that BDG looks good on paper, I reckon if it wasn't held so tightly by insto's it would probably be a takeover target at these SP prices.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Still on my CFD's, GSL@79c, thinking of dropping GSL down to 75c or so just to be safe,

Considering at 80c its capped at $360m or so and LHG paid $350M for BGF I'd say its a definate takeover target now, just got to get the Insto's Approval, although APS seems to be eager to exist, I'd say there the big sellers of late

[The Mint Man]

Considering at 80c its capped at $360m or so and LHG paid $350M for BGF I'd say its a definate takeover target now
Sounds good to me :D
before I bought I made the decision to hold for a while either way.....sitting waiting,sitting waiting.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

lol, I woke up this morning after 3hrs of sleep, checked mkts quickly n thought hmm maybe I should drop my GSL on BDG from 79c to say 74c and what do you know stock dropped to 79c, lol I'm hanging on by my teeth to this CFD trade :o

[nizar]

lol, I woke up this morning after 3hrs of sleep, checked mkts quickly n thought hmm maybe I should drop my GSL on BDG from 79c to say 74c and what do you know stock dropped to 79c, lol I'm hanging on by my teeth to this CFD trade :o

YT no disrespect but why did you buy this?
gold still has alot of work to do and this stock is in a clear downtrend?
does it seem cheap to u?

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Agree with everything you said Niz,

Here's my reasons


1. CFD investment here = 1% of my investment wealth

2. No exposure to Gold apart from HLX options (see thread if interested)

3. Most Important: The amount of consildation going on in Gold Sector with LHG T/O of BGF the final straw for me to jump in


Very very cheap right now

[The Mint Man]

lol, I woke up this morning after 3hrs of sleep, checked mkts quickly n thought hmm maybe I should drop my GSL on BDG from 79c to say 74c and what do you know stock dropped to 79c, lol I'm hanging on by my teeth to this CFD trade :o

So your still in?
I wondered if you were sold this morning.
I'll be holding for the moment....

[kennas]

Agree with everything you said Niz,

Here's my reasons

1. CFD investment here = 1% of my investment wealth

2. No exposure to Gold apart from HLX options (see thread if interested)

3. Most Important: The amount of consildation going on in Gold Sector with LHG T/O of BGF the final straw for me to jump in

Very very cheap right now
YT, I think your comparision of market cap and value to BGF was very pertinent. BGF have 1.4m JORC and BDG have 11m JORC, both valued the same? Doesn't add up.

[The Mint Man]

YT, I think your comparision of market cap and value to BGF was very pertinent. BGF have 1.4m JORC and BDG have 11m JORC, both valued the same? Doesn't add up.
Good Point.
Not many people looking to sell in comparison to buyers, this has been the story for the last couple of days. more demand then supply. Isnt this good?
Market Depth
BUY
Number Quantity Price
6 108,874 0.795
18 192,235 0.790
13 121,250 0.785
13 235,400 0.780
7 237,900 0.775
11 132,473 0.770
12 198,701 0.760
2 15,000 0.755
30 243,997 0.750
3 36,167 0.720
SELL
Price Quantity Number
0.800 3,347 2
0.805 10,000 1
0.810 113,471 10
0.815 70,114 6
0.820 245,513 4
0.825 28,000 1
0.830 29,600 3
0.835 30,000 3
0.840 33,070 7
0.845 120,287 6
Just noticed Golds also up over $618 :D
(edit: tried to space them but obviously it dosnt let you do that, Cheers)

[Profitseeker]

When better production figures come out to reassure the market this should fly. I think we will be looking pretty in about March of next year.

[The Mint Man]

I wonder if the CEO has returned from his sick leave.
Just noticed this Announcement:

Bendigo Mining Limited (ASX: BDG) advises that Mr Doug Buerger, Managing Director & CEO, has returned from a temporary leave of absence.
Bendigo’s Chairman, Mr Peter McCarthy said he was very pleased to see that
Mr Buerger is back at work to manage the Company through the next phase of
production and development.
The Chairman is grateful for the extra contribution made by the management
team which enabled the Company to achieve some significant goals during
Doug’s absence. Rod Hanson acting CEO, will resume his role as Chief
Operating Officer.
Cheers

[Profitseeker]

I wonder if Doug is happy with the significant steps that were made in his absence?

[kennas]

One of those goals must have been to lose 40% off the sp.

[The Mint Man]

up a little this morning :D hopfully gold keeps going ;)

[Profitseeker]

Needs to close above .82 for me to get excited.

[Profitseeker]

Looking good for that close.

[Caliente]

ok, this has popped up on radar. thoughts from technical traders?

[The Mint Man]

ok, this has popped up on radar. thoughts from technical traders?
I think YT has some skill in that area... might want to ask him to add his :2twocents .
EDIT: I take that back after reviewing post 41 :o , YT "I'm not much of a tech" Ok mabey he can give fundamentals :)

[kennas]

The last line of defence for this is $0.75, which it won't get to IMO due to the placement at $0.80. Resistance now on the way up between $1.00 and $1.20.

Fundamentals are there, although management needs to convince the market a bit better.

Way oversold this puppy. I'm waiting for the dust to settle before jumping on.

[GRIZ]

Hi All,
Have held BDG several times now, but keep getting burnt "reserve comment" & delay in 2nd mine opening now 2012/2013 -15%. "capital raising" -10%, may now be over sold? Dont know. There always talking about 660,000 ounces a year @ $250 us / ounce, but until 2012 50,000 ounces @ $400 + this year (only 3 or 4 months ago it was 170-190,000 ounces first year of production).
Have you looked at the chart all the way back to 1985 - listed at 25 cents. By Jan 87 was @ $7.50. Huge amount of hip pushed price up to $23.20 Sep 87, then back 50 cents by the end of 88. Last month they commision plant & poor there first gold, no upside from ann. How could it take 21 years?? Most of there asx ann. are negative, cost over runs, industrial disputes etc etc. Poor managment!
I dont post very often, but do read & respect your posts, I dont understand why the continued positive feeling about BDG. Is it just the fact its over sold, or 11 Mill ou. in the ground.
If some of you have time maybe you could explain why you / I would buy back into BDG. Ar'nt there good alt. What about OGD? 550,000 au. a year by 2008 @ $100.00 US / ounce. just as example.

Thanks, sorry about the rant. GRIZ.

[kennas]

Hi All,
Have held BDG several times now, but keep getting burnt "reserve comment" & delay in 2nd mine opening now 2012/2013 -15%. "capital raising" -10%, may now be over sold? Dont know. There always talking about 660,000 ounces a year @ $250 us / ounce, but until 2012 50,000 ounces @ $400 + this year (only 3 or 4 months ago it was 170-190,000 ounces first year of production).
Have you looked at the chart all the way back to Jan 1987 - listed at $7.50. Huge amount of hip pushed price up to $23.20 Sep 87, then back 50 cents by the end of 88. Last month they commision plant & poor there first gold, no upside from ann. Most of there asx ann. are negative, cost over runs, industrial disputes etc etc.
I dont post very often, but do read & respect your posts, I dont understand why the continued positive feeling about BDG. Is it just the fact its over sold, or 11 Mill ou. in the ground.
If some of you have time maybe you could explain why you / I would buy back into BDG. Ar'nt there good alt. What about OGD? 550,000 au. a year by 2008 @ $100.00 US / ounce. just as exaple.

Thanks, sorry about the rant. GRIZ.

Griz, yeah I'm following OGD too. Watching closely.

I think the spt for BDG was the 11 m JORC and no hedging at a time when gold is expected to climb to $1000 +.

You are right about all the bad news. Frustrating.

I bought at $1.39 and sold around $1.00 to wait until it's clearer where it's headed.

Must say, I'm a gold bull, so perhaps that has clouded my mind.

[The Mint Man]

Pulled this from the Gold price thread, thanks to kennas ;)

Finding Value In Australia's Gold Sector
FN Arena News - November 14 2006

By Chris Shaw

So assuming gold has higher to go, where should investors look for the best value in the sector or the best bang for their buck? Austock Securities has come to the rescue by providing a summary of the sector, allowing for a comparison of the various gold stocks the broker covers.

A review of the list shows the broker rates Newcrest (NCM), Sino Gold (SGX), Oceana (OGD), Resolute (RSG) and Perseverance (PSV) as Buys, while Austindo (ARX) is a Speculative Buy. Lihir (LHG), Bendigo (BDG) and Tanami (TAM) are rated as Hold.

In terms of valuations, the broker estimates Bendigo is trading at the largest discount to valuation at 68%, though given the company's recent issues and the resulting negative sentiment this is balanced by its Hold rating.
kennas you posted this so I'll direct this question towards you just to clear things up: When he says 'discount to valuation at 68%'. Does that mean they have a share price estimation of about $2.50? :confused:

For any of you that are interested you can view the whole post here, post 824: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=92313#post92313

cheers

[kennas]

Pulled this from the Gold price thread, thanks to kennas ;)

kennas you posted this so I'll direct this question towards you just to clear things up: When he says 'discount to valuation at 68%'. Does that mean they have a share price estimation of about $2.50? :confused:

For any of you that are interested you can view the whole post here, post 824: http://www.aussiestockforums.com/forums/showthread.php?p=92313#post92313

cheers

Yep.

You have to be a believer in the resource and that they are going to get it out as forecast though. Potential for more delays, downgrades yada yada..

[The Mint Man]

True but I for one am willing to hold on through the 'negative sentiment', got a good feeling about this one ;).
I think that other shareholders feel the same as me after looking at the Vol over the last week or so. Slowly but surely starting to settle, less selling more holding.
15 Nov 3,166,726
14 Nov 1,965,071
13 Nov 2,685,317
10 Nov 4,104,433
09 Nov 3,427,213
Just to make my point, on the 8th Nov was over 7 million traded between hands. Even if $2.50 is a bit ambitious, I belive that BDG is currently trading at a very good discount, either way money to be made. If you looked at the depth chart over the last couple of weeks it is obvious that there are way more buyers compared to sellers. They must be seeing something in BDG, probably the same thing I saw when I bought 2 weeks ago. As Jimeoin would say 'Bargain'.

cheers

[kennas]

True but I for one am willing to hold on through the 'negative sentiment', got a good feeling about this one ;).
I think that other shareholders feel the same as me after looking at the Vol over the last week or so. Slowly but surely starting to settle, less selling more holding.
15 Nov 3,166,726
14 Nov 1,965,071
13 Nov 2,685,317
10 Nov 4,104,433
09 Nov 3,427,213
Just to make my point, on the 8th Nov was over 7 million traded between hands. Even if $2.50 is a bit ambitious, I belive that BDG is currently trading at a very good discount, either way money to be made. If you looked at the depth chart over the last couple of weeks it is obvious that there are way more buyers compared to sellers. They must be seeing something in BDG, probably the same thing I saw when I bought 2 weeks ago. As Jimeoin would say 'Bargain'.

cheers
When gold starts heading back towards $1000 and BDG is heading to all time highs, people are going to look at $0.80 and think, why o why did I not jump all over that! Having said that, I'm still not in. Will start looking more seriously at it when it gets back over $0.90 for a start.

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I'm pretty sure APS Asset Management still has a fair bit of selling to do

[Profitseeker]

I'm pretty sure APS Asset Management still has a fair bit of selling to do

But judging by the announcements today the other funds are getting in. Be interesting to see what happens in December with the production on the McDermott Reef. It sounds promising. If it proves to be then the share price could really begin to recover.

[kennas]

But judging by the announcements today the other funds are getting in. Be interesting to see what happens in December with the production on the McDermott Reef. It sounds promising. If it proves to be then the share price could really begin to recover.
Yeah, I'm looking at this as a potential time to get back in. They MUST do this on time with no hickups however, or they could be looking even more foolish. The sp will be effected appropriately.

[Profitseeker]

Yeah, I'm looking at this as a potential time to get back in. They MUST do this on time with no hickups however, or they could be looking even more foolish. The sp will be effected appropriately.

I know. It would be the stuff that cold sweats is made of. On the other hand it could be champagne corks popping.

[The Mint Man]

Off a couple of % today, considering buying some more.
As Chicken would say:
'Accumilator at work...keeping price down..POG should run in the next few days'
Load up the truck people ;) :D

Cheers :D

Edit: Dont let this post spook you kennas :D

[YOUNG_TRADER]

I'm pretty sure this is that APS Asset Management still selling out, may take another 2 weeks before they're out completely

[kennas]

Edit: Dont let this post spook you kennas :D
LOL. I've got my finger poised for this. Couldn't see it going below $0.75, unless the mine caves in.

[nizar]

Couldn't see it going below $0.75

Why not?
WHen this was $2.50 in May, i never wouldve believed you if you had told me that it would be <$1 by November, in fact, i doubt you would have believed it yourself.
Clear downtrend.

[kennas]

Why not?
WHen this was $2.50 in May, i never wouldve believed you if you had told me that it would be <$1 by November, in fact, i doubt you would have believed it yourself.
Clear downtrend.
The placement at $0.80 was completed in a few minutes down the pub. Has plent of support there, I assume.

Current market cap about $335 m.
10m + 0z au @ $500/1000 = $5/10 bil.
Mine life about 20 years.

Lihir paid $350m for BGF which has about 3m oz au and it will run out in 4 years....

[The Mint Man]

I'm pretty sure this is that APS Asset Management still selling out, may take another 2 weeks before they're out completely
True. So some more cheap buying to come :)
But after that what do you expect?

[justjohn]

Off a couple of % today, considering buying some more.
As Chicken would say:
'Accumilator at work...keeping price down..POG should run in the next few days'
Load up the truck people ;) :D

Cheers :D

Edit: Dont let this post spook you kennas :D
MINTY you be lucky to get a truck at present there all being loaded up by some mad ramping feathered bird like animal at SBM plus you forgot about ''DO YOUR RESEARCH'' :banghead: :

[The Mint Man]

Hehe, by the way empty out your PM's.

BDG off about 4% today, although the whole market got smashed. So yeh load up the truck and do your research

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Great an SPP@80c

How much money do these w@nkers need to dig that gold up?

[The Mint Man]

You still in on them YT?

cheers

[YOUNG_TRADER]

CFD's only so nothing major, small deposit of $3k with GSL

Its just dissapointing as this company has so much potential, a company with actual mining skills should take over! LHG cough cough

[Profitseeker]

Is anyone going to take up the share offer?

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

ATM its cheaper buying BDG on market, at least ROC is trading at a 40c premium to its 3 for 8 offer, I was hoping BDG would at least hold at 85c to offer any incentive to take part in the offer.

Personally I have enough BDG :confused: , silly me!.

[Ranger]

Is anyone going to take up the share offer?


I will be definitely watching the share price up to the December 8 closing date. But for me to buy they are going to have to rise considerable.

[The Mint Man]

I will be definitely watching the share price up to the December 8 closing date.
:iagree:
was going to buy up at $0.77 yesterday but decided to wait and see what happens... Ive got the SPP sitting here for $0.80, with no brokerage thats $0.77 anyway.
Sitting waiting. :D

[The Mint Man]

well were off a couple of % today.... seems that some shareholders cant take the hard words in the first 2 or so pages of the AGM ann.
However If you look past that you will find several up sides, even more so if your looking at holding for the longer term.
One comment in particular, by Peter McCarthy stood out to me:

Another important issue in the broader business environment is the global shortage of significant gold resources, combined with the ongoing consolidation of gold companies by merger and acquisition. As the gold companies get bigger, they will have great difficulty in sustaining their production and growth into the future. For example, one of the biggest gold producers in the world, Barrick Gold Corp., needs to find some eight million ounces of gold a year just to maintain its current position, let alone grow. Bendigo figures large on any assessment of global resource opportunities and has great value for that reason alone.
The Global resource position/Global gold mines graph on page 13 also backs this up, you can clearly see that it has a decent gold grade and Resource size compared to the majority of other gold mines.
With all the takeover action of late who knows? we could see some action.

I also think this comment is important:

The productivity of the underground teams has steadily lifted and we are now developing at the rate of some 7 kilometres per year of underground tunnels.
It is important that we maintain a high development rate, so we can open up the length of the goldfield and allow the exploration team to drill for and find new gold-bearing reefs.
The drilling is done from underground, requiring skilled drillers and reliable equipment. We have a drilling company working for us that is owned and operated by a team of very experienced drillers. They have very low staff turn-over and good productivity. The shortage of skilled drillers in the exploration and mining industry worldwide is acute, so having a reliable and skilled drilling team is a major asset to our Company.
7000m/52 = 134m on average per week sounds ok to me.

here is a link to the AGM ann if your interested http://www.asx.com.au/asx/statistics/showAnnouncementPDF.do?idsID=00670739 However the ASX does seem to be having some problems ATM so it might be better to view it through your brokers site, plus the ann on the ASX has been copied so its a bitch to read compared to comsec etc.

Anyway I will continue to hold and at these prices will most likely buy more before the new year.

cheers :D

EDIT: do your research :p:

[kennas]

I find it incredibly intriguing that Barrick has been specifically mentioned. I think this company is going to be taken over in the near future and I want to be on it when that occurs. Might be time to get in there now and not wait for more stability in the price and an upward trend identified. Hhhhmmm.

[kennas]

I find it incredibly intriguing that Barrick has been specifically mentioned. I think this company is going to be taken over in the near future and I want to be on it when that occurs. Might be time to get in there now and not wait for more stability in the price and an upward trend identified. Hhhhmmm.
I'm back in now. Not many for a start and will see how it goes. I have a feeling that this is around bottom and will be buying it on the way up as it goes through resistance levels I think. Will also watch vol closely for anything unusual.

[The Mint Man]

I find it incredibly intriguing that Barrick has been specifically mentioned. I think this company is going to be taken over in the near future and I want to be on it when that occurs. Might be time to get in there now and not wait for more stability in the price and an upward trend identified. Hhhhmmm.
:iagree:
And welcome back kennas.... my only regret about getting to BDG is that I didnt wait until now to buy at a cheaper price however having said that I belive they are at a bottom now and will make back what (little) I have lost to date. As I have said I also have the SPP sitting here ready to go if need be :D
Its funny you mention the volume kennas as I was just checking the market depth... nothings different today, more peole willing to buy then sell however have a look at the buy orders @ $0.77 (if it reaches that again):
Number Quantity Price
30 1,179,556 0.770
thats the strongest buy order I have seen over the last couple of weeks. what do you's recon? people starting to see the bargain I speak of.

[barney]

I find it incredibly intriguing that Barrick has been specifically mentioned. I think this company is going to be taken over in the near future and I want to be on it when that occurs. Might be time to get in there now and not wait for more stability in the price and an upward trend identified. Hhhhmmm.

Howdy K and others, I first noticed BDG back in Oct when it dived to $1 ..... I agree with what you lads are saying (and I have bought in as well) .... The trend is still down, but there has been a good tussle between the buyers/sellers over the last couple of days. I reckon once the last of the desperate sellers have had enough (could be a bit longer yet) then the sp only has one way to go. There is too much potential imo (unless the mine caves in!!!) We will all be accused of being bottom pickers, but as they say in the classics ... "no guts no glory" ........ Once they upgrade their "lost" resources which caused the sp dive; And the company say they are confident of doing this, who knows where this might get to ..... Good luck to ya's all (and me too .... geez I need some)

How much lower can it go??? Its not like its a shabby spec stock!! Cheers, Barney.

[Tekmann]

How much lower can it go??? Its not like its a shabby spec stock!! Cheers, Barney.

Agree it certainly not a shabby stock, even thought some aren't in favour of current management....

Guess the question was being asked all the way down "how much Lower can it go"...???? which not many thinks it will fall further, as there seems to be more of a chance it will turn up, than further down.

IF it falls further perhaps .71c would be a 2 year support, or worse still .58c being a 2/6/11 year support... which is not likely at all.

Cheers
Tekmann

[Tekmann]

Hmmm is this the start of a breakout from long awaited sideways channel.

[The Mint Man]

yes you beat me to it....
market generally down and I thought BDG was going to follow (like it did last monday) as it opened at $0.795 and got down to $0.79, however it has proven me wrong :eek: didnt take long fo it to reach $0.81 with a current high of $0.815...... with good Volume too :D
heres its history over the last week (from ASX site):
.....Date ........Last High Low .....Vol *
27 Nov 2006 .0.800 0.805 0.785 ...3,447,620
24 Nov 2006 .0.790 0.800 0.780 ...1,781,233
23 Nov 2006 .0.775 0.805 0.775 ...2,954,338
22 Nov 2006 .0.800 0.800 0.770 ...4,142,429
21 Nov 2006 .0.770 0.785 0.770 ...3,744,369

and todays so far:
Stock Bid $ Offer $ Last $ Change % Open $ High $ Low $ Volume
BDG 0.815 0.820 0.815 0.015 1.88 0.795 0.815 0.790 1,107,153

All this in the first hour!!!

Looking good ATM ;)

[The Mint Man]

Couldnt even finish writing my last message before it leaped to $0.83...hehe :D
For those people sitting on the sidelines on this one... might be time to jump in.
Hey kennas, by my calculations you have already made about 8%.
Glad you got on?

EDIT: sorry for my excitement but this has all happened in the first hour of a day when the market is down about 60 points whith the likes of LHG, NCM etc.. all down too, anyway Ill try to calm down now.

cheers

[kennas]

Couldnt even finish writing my last message before it leaped to $0.83...hehe :D
For those people sitting on the sidelines on this one... might be time to jump in.
Hey kennas, by my calculations you have already made about 8%.
Glad you got on?
Yes, mate, but I'm not counting my chicken yet. There'll be a bit of resistance at $1.00. Good start to the day though. :)

[The Mint Man]

hey guys,
Can anyone tell me why they had a sudden jump at the end of today?
up 3.7% upon close.
They were around the $0.80 mark all day and I was expecting it to end like that (like it has been lately) but it closed at $0.825, its highest close for a while now. I belive this all happened in the last 1/2 hour of today.
They also had an increased VOL, that reached 11,029,251 (going off comsec)which is its highest Vol for a while now..... well since it was having a sell off I belive.
Any idea why the sudden increase in price and Volume? was there a big buy at the end of the day?

From Comsec:
BDG close 0.825 0.030 3.77% 11,029,251

cheers :D

[rub92me]

I can see one big crossed transaction of 1.3 million shares @ 0.794. Lots of smallish transactions at the adjust stage (2-40,000) @ 0.825.

[Dohes7]

One buyer came in at about 4.08pm with a bid of 1.2mil @ .85c which took out all the sellers. Could be finally up from here!! (Fingers crossed)

[Ranger]

The share offer is looking a lot more attractive now.

[The Mint Man]

yes much better, mabey people will/have started to open their eyes. Ive still got the SPP right in front of me ;)

Interesting those big orders.... you might remember me saying (in post 190) that there were 1,179,556 waiting to be traded @ 0.770, however the other day, when BDG got some legs reaching $0.835, that order went missing from the market depth chart. I wonder if they decided buy at a higher price in fear of missing out?

[barney]

One buyer came in at about 4.08pm with a bid of 1.2mil @ .85c which took out all the sellers. Could be finally up from here!! (Fingers crossed)


Not the only share that this happened to today either .......... CEY coming back from a dive ............today after 4 o clock close ($2.84) finished off with over 1 million shares at $2.94 !!!!! 10 cents higher than the original close ...... guess who sold yesterday? (bugga) .......... not sure what these after hours spikes mean, but I hope BDG goes through the roof 2 morrow..... Good luck all, Barney.

[Dohes7]

What's everyones thoughts on a possibility of a takeover of BDG??

[kennas]

What's everyones thoughts on a possibility of a takeover of BDG??
High probability. LHG paid $350m for BGF who have 3-4m ish oz au and BDG have 10m au and have just starting to mine. Market cap about the same. You'd have to add 30% ish on the sp for it to be any where near acceptable to the directors though, so maybe $450m, which would give it a price of about $1.05 which seems pretty cheap to me. It was $2.50 a few months ago. Perhaps a 40% premium would be more realistic. About $1.15. Only drama would be there are three large companies on the register holding 10% or more. Just have to convince them too.

[traderandy]

gold surged up overnight and look what's happened to BDG in the first 3 minutes!

I'm so glad I decided to hold (before the buyers came in late yesterday)

[kennas]

Might be too early to really tell, but perhaps a bottom has been seen. :)

[Tekmann]

Morning K.

What will it take for this sucker to rapidily rise again, a great ann titled "BDG Takeover", or gold's rapid rise...????

Or do you think it will be a slow rise back to it's high if ever...???

[The Mint Man]

Could I be right in saying that the market wont let it go until this SPP closes on Friday?
I mean the SPP is for $0.80 per share and it dosnt seem to be able to get away from that ATM. So maybe it will start to run on Monday?

[kennas]

Morning K.

What will it take for this sucker to rapidily rise again, a great ann titled "BDG Takeover", or gold's rapid rise...????

Or do you think it will be a slow rise back to it's high if ever...???
Takeover might help. :)

Gold confirmed uptrend. I think it is, but unexpected events could change that.

A good progress update on mining operations saying everything's on track might help.

And maybe an upgrade from a broker or four....


Could I be right in saying that the market wont let it go until this SPP closes on Friday?
I mean the SPP is for $0.80 per share and it dosnt seem to be able to get away from that ATM. So maybe it will start to run on Monday?
I agree, that after the SPP is sorted it will give the sp some more freedom

[YOUNG_TRADER]

Takeover might help. :)

Gold confirmed uptrend. I think it is, but unexpected events could change that.

A good progress update on mining operations saying everything's on track might help.

And maybe an upgrade from a broker or four....


I agree, that after the SPP is sorted it will give the sp some more freedom


Yep, yep, yep and Especially YEP to the SPP

[Profitseeker]

You would think that the company would have tried to make some announcements to push the price up to get the share placement taken up. I'm actually worried that the share price is now sitting at the issue price.

[Profitseeker]

and I just bought my $5000 at .79 What a joke.

[Profitseeker]

What the?

[britishcarfreak]

Not feeling too comfortable about BDG today - but I'm down about 5% across the board anyway. // bit worried about dropping through previous support. I may freak if it goes past 76c. :mad:

[The Mint Man]

I was going to take up the SPP but I am now going to buy through comsec by the end of today.
Profitseeker, My view is this.Dont freak! Everyone likes a bargain... if people buy below $0.80 they will feel like they have got one as they will be buying below the SPP. :2twocents
So dont be too worried as it has been around this level for weeks now. If it makes you feel any better I bought in at $0.85 around 2 months ago when they were coming down and sure Ive lost a little but I feel they will be going back up soon. If that dosnt make you feel better then read back though some of kennas old post as he has previously taken a hit on BDG not so long ago and hes also back in. Now thats saying something.

cheers

[Profitseeker]

Me thinks that it could be an intresting close today.I'll be watching. My conspiracy theory is that JP Mongrels decreased their stake to keep the price below .80 so that their massive holding was not dilluted by the SPP (It has worked for me). These thoughts could have been influenced by the beers I had at lunch though. :confused:

[britishcarfreak]

What do you mean interesting close? What's gonna happen in your opinion?

[The Mint Man]

What do you mean interesting close? What's gonna happen in your opinion?
bit late to be asking that. hehe 3:59pm :D

[Ranger]

Has anyone got any thoughts on what might happen to BDG Monday?

[kennas]

Has anyone got any thoughts on what might happen to BDG Monday?
Might go down a % in line with gold retreat. If gold opens up in Asia then it will probably go up. This is a possibility with news of Iran selling $US.

Pending any news from the Company, or broker reports......

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

BDG hasn't tracked POG for a while Kenna's, any movement of its SP is just a guess IMO, similar to managements knowledge :D

[kennas]

BDG hasn't tracked POG for a while Kenna's, any movement of its SP is just a guess IMO, similar to managements knowledge :D
LOL. And you are right about tracking gold point althought the run from Nov 05 - May 06 was surely related to POG, and since then also to gold retracing, along with management bumbling.

I think that it could start to change up now that the spp has closed and the dust might have settled (maybe) from the reserves downgrade. As it moves further into production POG will be very important to BDG. Being unheadged and all.

Chart wise, just how could it go lower from here? I suppose it can, but looks very oversold on the indicators.

Must admit, this is still subject to the resource base being re re confirmed. There are probably questions in the minds of analysts after the downgrade even though it was small and did not effect the overall resource.

Still a risk. As is life. :)

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

LOL. And you are right about tracking gold point althought the run from Nov 05 - May 06 was surely related to POG, and since then also to gold retracing, along with management bumbling.


Chart wise, just how could it go lower from here? I suppose it can, but looks very oversold on the indicators.




Agree, but BDG hasn't tracked the gold price since POG rallied recently. Personally I think we are seeing gold pullback a bit before a test of the $700 mark. I am of the opinion/anticipating that BDG being unhedged and with the mine going all well it will once again track POG and should run.

All the aforementioned is totally reliant on market confidence coming back into BDG, institutions stopping shark barring and selling down, and management stopping their learning curve.

All in all BDG has a lot in their favour and they are way oversold and the SP is value (real value) but the market isn't of the same opinion as me ATM, but that could turn on a dime as we all know. :)

[The Mint Man]

All in all BDG has a lot in their favour and they are way oversold and the SP is value (real value) but the market isn't of the same opinion as me ATM
Thats for sure!!!

but that could turn on a dime as we all know.
which is why Im not trying to pick the bottom. If I tried to I would probably only get in at the price that I bought at anyway because by the time you notice it run you've missed the bottom!! simple eh?
Im just waiting for those bottom pickers to notice what your saying, then watch as the SP goes up :D

cheers

[britishcarfreak]

So are there many ballsy people here that are jumping in at present? I took the plunge at 80c. I wanted to buy them ages ago and figured I'd missed the boat with the run to 2.60 odd. There aren't too many second chances like this are there?

What are your indicators for confirmation of a reversal? I'm curious to know what people are looking for if they're gonna wait before getting in.

[kennas]

What are your indicators for confirmation of a reversal? I'm curious to know what people are looking for if they're gonna wait before getting in.
Higher highs and lows. Increased volume.

I've bought some at these levels and will buy more on the turn around.

This still no sure thing. Just about any company can go bust.

[Ranger]

The directors must still believe in the company with 4 taking part in the SPP.

[Jrowl]

I'm still concerned by further dilution of the stock. Yes the managment have taken part in the SPP but all last week the share price was trading between .77 & .80 so why would anyone have decided to buy SPP at a premium to the share price? They issued a further 7,842,275 shares which I assumed was because of the SPP which is $6,263,820. That means 1255 Australians (SPP was only for Australians) took part and paid 5,000 each. All thoughout the period the shares could have been bought cheaper on the market, I would have assumed participation in the SPP would have been much lower, perhaps under 100 people.

What are your thoughts on this? (BTW the SPP has further diluted the stock by 1.5%)

[Freeballinginawetsuit]

BDG are increasing their SOI for 'operating capital' dude (theyve gotta get money from somewhere) once they flog some unhedged gold and recover their lost resource and restore market confidence and replace management.....etc, their share price should rocket.......hopefully :rolleyes: , or they go belly up.

[Dohes7]

[QUOTE=Jrowl]I'm still concerned by further dilution of the stock. Yes the managment have taken part in the SPP but all last week the share price was trading between .77 & .80 so why would anyone have decided to buy SPP at a premium to the share price? QUOTE]

No brokerage fees!!!

[Gundini]

I don't know which is more exciting, watching BDG or watching the grass grow! So far, the grass is winning....

BTW I do still hold this stock, bought @ $1.31, then some more after the reserve downgrade, then some more after the capital raising.

Am I an Idiot or what :banghead:

[The Mint Man]

I have bought at an average of $0.796, so I'm just sitting waiting... Something is bound to happen IMO.
I think we are also due for some results this month?

[Profitseeker]

I think the next announcement they make will be crucial. The sooner the better as well so we can just be done with it one way or another.

[Kipp]

trading between .77 & .80 so why would anyone have decided to buy SPP at a premium to the share price?

My friend, when they did the SPP about a month SP was in the mid 80's-90 I think. No company qwould ever do SPP at a premium... yes brokerage fees are saved too--- but they are only $20!!!!

In my (limited) experience, SPP are usally done at an awesome discount to the SP, for example BSM, it was 16.5 c (SP was ~19-20 at the time) and similar discount for JMS. In the short term there is a slippage in SP (often down to the SPP) but it usually recovers pretty quickly. Thus, 77 would seem a bargain.

P.S. I Don't hold.
P.P.S. Lok like I'm gunna have to change my pic subtitle soon... maybe TLS WILLL hit $5.00!!!

[The Mint Man]

I think the next announcement they make will be crucial. The sooner the better as well so we can just be done with it one way or another.
True...... A takeover will do ;) :D
As I said before, I think we are due for some news soon. Maybe some production figures
On another note, I think that BDG has held up quite well today considering the gold price and no news to sugar coat it today.

cheers

[kennas]

P.P.S. Lok like I'm gunna have to change my pic subtitle soon... maybe TLS WILLL hit $5.00!!!
Hope so Kipp. That would buy a nice new rudder for the yacht. :)

[The Mint Man]

Some People must be keen to get in on BDG while the price is cheap...
Just noticed this on the market Depth:
Number ... Quantity .... Price
13 ......... 2,390,789 .. 0.760

Started off good today though, up around 1% and alot of trades going on very early, Compared to normal.

cheers

[kennas]

Some People must be keen to get in on BDG while the price is cheap...
Just noticed this on the market Depth:
Number ... Quantity .... Price
13 ......... 2,390,789 .. 0.760

Started off good today though, up around 1% and alot of trades going on very early, Compared to normal.

cheers
Hhhmm, 2m at $0.76, that is no dodgy day trader on HC! $1.5m.... :eek:

[Dr Doom]

I've been a BDG 'true believer' for a number of years, through thick and thin etc etc, so you would have to take management word as to the reliability of the resource. But what is known is that there IS gold down there, a number of large institutions have continually supported BDG so it's just a matter of EXACTLY how much is down there. All other things being equal, you would have to assume that even allowing for a reduction of 30% from the initial projections, which were as I recall some 500k per year at full production, it still leaves you with approx 350k. So however you value that as compared to todays price I would think history will show it as being cheap, if/when gold goes for another spurt. BTW, I wouldn't take much notice of the 2 mill bidder @ .76 as these types of bids usually vaporise in an instant. Although if it's genuine it looks a promising base.

[Profitseeker]

take a look at who is on newcrest mining's board...

R. Bryan Davis

Non-Executive Director
Appointed to the Board in March 1998.
Bachelor of Science Technology (Mining) from the University of New South Wales. Mr Davis is a former Executive Director of Pasminco Limited. He is Chairman of Bendigo Mining Limited, a Director of OneSteel Limited and Coal & Allied Industries Ltd, a Fellow of AusIMM and a member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Mr Davis is Chairman of the Safety, Health and Environment Committee and a member of the Audit and Remuneration Committees.

Other Directorships:

Chairman of Bendigo Mining Limited from September 2004, Director of OneSteel Limited from December 2004 and Director of Coal & Allied Industries Ltd from September 2000. Previously Chairman of Indophil Resources N.L. from November 2000 to April 2005.

[The Mint Man]

take a look at who is on newcrest mining's board...

R. Bryan Davis

Non-Executive Director
Appointed to the Board in March 1998.
Bachelor of Science Technology (Mining) from the University of New South Wales. Mr Davis is a former Executive Director of Pasminco Limited. He is Chairman of Bendigo Mining Limited, a Director of OneSteel Limited and Coal & Allied Industries Ltd, a Fellow of AusIMM and a member of the Australian Institute of Company Directors. Mr Davis is Chairman of the Safety, Health and Environment Committee and a member of the Audit and Remuneration Committees.

Other Directorships:

Chairman of Bendigo Mining Limited from September 2004, Director of OneSteel Limited from December 2004 and Director of Coal & Allied Industries Ltd from September 2000. Previously Chairman of Indophil Resources N.L. from November 2000 to April 2005.
Hmm, interesting. Maybe he can have a word with newcrest about a takeover :D
good to see we have got some connections though.

cheers

[kennas]

Hmm, interesting. Maybe he can have a word with newcrest about a takeover :D
good to see we have got some connections though.

cheers
This is very promising IMO. M&A activity on BDG could be a real possibility and I am backing NCM, unless they want to be taken over themselves....This is a bit speculative, but I have read several articles over the past few months on potential targets and both NCM and BDG have come up. As LHG have done, perhaps one of them need to start taking steps to save their company, or be swallowed. As soon as I see some unusual volume on BDG I'll be topping up.

[michael_selway]

This is very promising IMO. M&A activity on BDG could be a real possibility and I am backing NCM, unless they want to be taken over themselves....This is a bit speculative, but I have read several articles over the past few months on potential targets and both NCM and BDG have come up. As LHG have done, perhaps one of them need to start taking steps to save their company, or be swallowed. As soon as I see some unusual volume on BDG I'll be topping up.

PE is still so high!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -3.5 1.6 1.0 4.2
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 1.6 47.5 --
Year Ending 30-06-08 1.0 76.0 -37.5%

thx

MS

[kennas]

PE is still so high!

Earnings and Dividends Forecast (cents per share)
2006 2007 2008 2009
EPS -3.5 1.6 1.0 4.2
DPS 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

EPS(c) PE Growth
Year Ending 30-06-07 1.6 47.5 --
Year Ending 30-06-08 1.0 76.0 -37.5%

thx

MS
MS,

What's the pe based on? Is this out of the company reports, reported by Comsec?

Perhaps it's because BDG haven't started making $$ yet. I don't think they will for another 3 years. Sorry, need to look back through it myself, but they have only just started pouring gold, ramping up to full production in 2008 I believe, so no wonder it's low. And, this is where I believe the full value of BDG is as a TO target. It's all set and ready to ramp up as POG goes on to all time highs (maybe) with a market cap equiv to some goldies who's mines are going out. Would like to see a pe for them based on full production and $1000 POG in 2009. Unhedged.............

At the same time, there are a few risks. Another downgrade could send them to the sin bin.

[Jrowl]

LOL, junior mining doesn't have PE, they don't have earnings yet. The way you value a junior gold mining company is divide the total resource estimate by their market capitalisation and subtract the cost per ounce to produce. BDG has 495,433,780 shares at closing price today of .785 cents per share today which is a market cap of $388,915,517. Divide by 12,000,000 ounces of gold is $32.30. So your buying one ounce of gold in the ground for $32.30 worth of shares. The estimated cost of producing the gold is $360 an ounce, current market price for gold is $800 an ounce so there is a profit of $440. So for every $32.30 worth of shares you buy, $440 will be returned to you assuming over the mine life they extract all the 12 million ounces of gold and gold stays at $800 per ounce and cost of production stays at $360 per ounce.

[Dr Doom]

LOL, junior mining doesn't have PE, they don't have earnings yet. The way you value a junior gold mining company is divide the total resource estimate by their market capitalisation and subtract the cost per ounce to produce. BDG has 495,433,780 shares at closing price today of .785 cents per share today which is a market cap of $388,915,517. Divide by 12,000,000 ounces of gold is $32.30. So your buying one ounce of gold in the ground for $32.30 worth of shares. The estimated cost of producing the gold is $360 an ounce, current market price for gold is $800 an ounce so there is a profit of $440. So for every $32.30 worth of shares you buy, $440 will be returned to you assuming over the mine life they extract all the 12 million ounces of gold and gold stays at $800 per ounce and cost of production stays at $360 per ounce.

I would be conservative and use the 11Moz inferred for the calcs,which gives you $35. Also I think the cost has increased to somewhere in the $400's, - can you check this as I can't find it. Even so, that still gives you (at $400) profit of $400 /oz.

Also, there is potential for further reserve addition through exploration and better grades, as the historical grade is up around 17 oz/t, whereas BDG are budgeting at 7 oz/t. So let's look at it from another perspective ie the chance of an upgrade to historical grades, and you have a mine with approx 20M oz. Lots of potential, very oversold in current climate.

Calcs at 20M oz = $20 returning $400 :p:

[Profitseeker]

Hmm, interesting. Maybe he can have a word with newcrest about a takeover :D
good to see we have got some connections though.

cheers

This is the article that really gets me excited considering the connection:

Newcrest Mining eying off local buys
Thursday Oct 26 14:24 AEST

Newcrest Mining is considering local acquisitions while preparing itself for any possible takeover approaches amid a strong future outlook.

Newcrest Mining's chairman Ian Johnson told shareholders the outlook for the gold and copper miner is positive, despite going industry cost pressures.

"The outlook for the company in 2007 and beyond remains strong," he told shareholders at the company's annual general meeting.

But the resources boom had resulted in "continuing upward cost pressures at all of the company's operations".

Chief executive Ian Smith said future expansion may come from mergers and acquisitions (M&A).

"We're pursuing opportunities for early entry M&A with several local companies," he said.

He also said after the meeting that Newcrest should be in a position to announce a memorandum of understanding with another entity "in the next couple of weeks".

Mr Johnson also told shareholders the company had recently updated a prepared target's statement, in case of a possible takeover approach.

"The phone hasn't rung, we're just getting ready," Mr Johnson said.

"Every several years (the target's statement) is updated at great lengths and that was done this year ... at a week or two's notice we can send it out to shareholders."

Mr Smith added that he was not expecting an approach in the short-term.

"We're attractive to various groups but I wouldn't expect an approach in the foreseeable future," he said.

"If there was to be an approach it would come from the gold sector and I think they're all fairly well-occupied."

Mr Smith, who joined the company earlier this year, also said Newcrest is looking at its hedging position, which has prevented it from taking advantage of spikes in the gold price.

"We're looking at opportunities to change the profile of the hedge book," he said.

"By Christmas we should have a definitive decision."

Mr Johnson told shareholders that the underground mine at its troubled Telfer project in Western Australia has completed construction.

"This is now ramping up and should achieve name plate capacity by March 2007," he said.

Newcrest declined to give earnings or production guidance at the meeting, saying it would provide some forecasts in its quarterly production report on Monday.

[The Mint Man]

:iagree:
Tese coments in particular stand out like dogs balls to me

Chief executive Ian Smith said future expansion may come from mergers and acquisitions (M&A).
"We're pursuing opportunities for early entry M&A with several local companies," he said.

One question though. What does he mean by 'early entry'?
early entry, as in before a company hits it's straps?
If so then I would say BDG fits the glove perfectly! IMO

cheers

[Profitseeker]

That is how I read it mint man and they would have all the inside knowledge from their man on the board.

[Dohes7]

BDG reached a new Low today! Really need some positive announcements soon!