CPC - Carpenter Pacific Resources

[ozewolf]

Carpenter Pacific is on the run...good drilling results are expected this month..check out their website for current news...

[RichKid]

Hi Ozewolf,
Mentioned in the breakouts thread too by TechA, on my watchlist. Looking like a good entry with that close above resistance on very high volume.

[RichKid]

CPC seems to be steadying on volume, this week will be crucial to any breakout position. Any holders/watchers?

[el_ninj0]

Sorry for being a newb. But could someone explain to me what these breakouts are? why they happen? and how you can tell they are going to happen please?

[RichKid]

Hi en,
See the breakouts thread, TechA for example has posted some excellent charts (breakouts: it's a TA thing). Some people only trade breakouts- that's their system.

I'll try to post a chart of the breakout characteristics that I see in CPC, if someone can do it before me it'll be great as I'm a bit tied up atm.

In the breakouts thread I posted an article on trading breakouts, have a look through the posts from the last two to three weeks and read it for guidance.
Also pick up any good TA book of modern times and look up breakouts.

Basically it's when the price breaks through a previous high resistance level. or it could just be a previous resistance level in a change of trend- I'm not sure if there is one definition. Usually it is accompanied by volume. I'm a bit of a newbie too so I may not have got the definitions correct. Not all breakouts continue though, it could easily fall back as a 'false' breakout, hence the reason why the first weeks/days following a breakout is important the plus is that when you do catch a great breakout it move in strength, especially if it's making new all time highs (ie blue sky potential).

In CPC I see 33/34 as the resistance level. It has broken out above it but is now falling back towards support at 33/34c (which happens quite often, see the, AZR, ERG and FXR threads for illustrations). There is solid buy depth imo below 34c so the price should be supported until the next trigger (eg good drilling results) which imo will see it go higher and really 'breakout'. The increase in volume is also a good sign of support of the trend as more people are supporting the stock. The ongoing deals and the start of a 17 well drilling programme may be the fundamental explanation behind the TA breakout.

This is not a tip to buy the stock, just observations. There are many ways to trade breakouts.

[RichKid]

Support seems to be appearing at 32c, which is not good imo. Should be at breakout level for normal resistance to become support. Still, let's see how it unfolds. The longer this takes the closer becomes the medium term uptrend line for it to bounce off.

[RichKid]

Well, just when I thought it needed more watching they announce (as expected) the spudding of a new well in their big campaign. Also noticed from a previous annct that they are actually producing, hence earning money not just burning it, and their strategy is bearing fruit, little infrastructure costs as the area is famous in America and has a long history so they get cashflow almost immediately through nearby supply pipes.

I also like the idea of diversifying out of Australia. One of CPC's competetive advantages is that the gas price in the USA (where they sell their gas) is much higher than in Australia (see the recent co presentation), I was looking for leverage to the North Atlantic gas market as I saw many studies of demand outstripping supply but couldn't find a good co, and then I stumble on this through the breakouts thread purely for T/A reasons...let's just see if the T/A holds because that's what matters in the end, the sp and the graph.

There must be someone else who knows of CPC out there, any constructive/reasoned comments welcome, even if you think it's the worst co in the world I'm happy to hear you out as it's good to debate these things while the chart does its thing. These threads are open to all...

[RichKid]

CPC hanging in there, should see some news late next week as the well nears total depth.

[mime]

CPC seems to have a PE of 100.

Don't you guys think thats a little high?

[markrmau]

CPC seems to have a PE of 100.Don't you guys think thats a little high?
Don't forget, the price of a company 'should' be (a)expected future earnings, (b)adjusted for the alternate risk free interest investment, (c) with some risk premium adjustment. Unfortunately we don't know a,b, or c.

So PE of 100:1 is ok, if we expect the earnings to be increasing over the following years.

I don't hold or know anything about CPC

[RichKid]

No idea about PE, mining co's burn money for years with just an expectation of making money and then skyrocket or disappear. This one is already earning money and every well adds to it, I think energy prices are not going down either in their markets. It certainly is risky, no doubt about that but the returns are high too, possibly. This is why fundamentals people don't hang around high spec plays like CPC. It all happens too fast, even balance sheets are past info. I might get stopped out of this one. If the well news this week is great I reckon the breakout will be confirmed, otherwise a real risk of falling back to primary trend imo.

[rocks78]

Guys,

First ever post..... But I am a holder of CPC and am nervously awaiting some news! :swear:

It seems that unless it keeps the market updated every day with positive news it wont stop falling!!!!

Dont know if I should count my losses? :confused:

Anyone with some info :sly: (good or bad)

Cheers,

Rocks.

[RichKid]

Guys,
First ever post..... But I am a holder of CPC and am nervously awaiting some news! :swear:

It seems that unless it keeps the market updated every day with positive news it wont stop falling!!!!
Dont know if I should count my losses? :confused:
Anyone with some info :sly: (good or bad)
Cheers,
Rocks.

Welcome Rocks!
Hope you enjoy the forums!
CPC is a bit of a lazy co for anncts, only release things from time to time, I guess it's due to slow progress. They must be busy doing deals to get more areas to explore. Looking a bit dangerous trendwise, may fall a few cents if people get nervous. I thought that any good news would have come through by now so I don't know what to expect, maybe they had mechanical difficulties or didn't find as much oil/gas as they hoped. It'll be a jittery wait, the co isn't exactly specific about dates either. Looks very promising on the face of it though, the nearness to a trend collapse is what worries me, we should all know what the situation is by next week imo. I don't know much about the types of operations the co runs so maybe it's to be expected in this market for smaller players.

[rocks78]

Richkid,

Thanks for taking the time out to reply to my post ;) .... Your feed back has been very helpful and you are definatly right about them being lazy in announcing anything!!

I did notice the volume was up a little today........ :confused:

Cheers,

Rocks.

[rocks78]

Guys,

Not being an experienced trader could anyone tell me if the latest announcements surrounding CPC were positive or not??? :confused:

From the latest movement in the share price I have to assume that it doesnt look good.

I hold CPC and am not sure if I should get out or not..... any advise would be appreciated.

Cheers.

[skin]

Rocks do you still hold. I purchased 20,000 at 20cents. The brokers' presentation looks promising. They definitely have the goods - are selling, are acquiring more land and their flows are at/above expectation. No news since 25 May, lack of machinery to drill new holes. The money has to start to come in from sales - just hope they don't blow it with the new drills. Await for news of money and will probably off load.

[ozewolf]

when I mentioned last, carpenter has risen 40% since and still going strong, even at the last days all ord correction.
I believe that CPC is still worth a punt and may start to fizzle out at 0.45 by end 05.
good luck all. :)

[keepitreal]

Have a look at this share.. I bought it on Friday..

Tell me what you think.