Recent price movements have been very good - current price $1.04;
Tech/Rich kid can you guys provide some T/A on the chart??
This is a bit of a risky one - company has ambitious expansion plans, recent placement at 88c has been completed (I believe), AMP have recently become a substantial holder.
Purchased a few 1000 today @ $1.02, may purchase more on further FA...
Any other followers??
Cheers
TJ
RichKid
10th-March-2005, 12:12 AM
Here's a very rough chart, I don't know what it means yet, looks positive. Still playing around. I'm hamstrung by not being able to see long/med term bar charts on this software, only shows lines so I can't plot long trends.
Look for break of resistance at the top line there. That big fall last year (edge of chart) was because mgmt changed their story in a short time about investment profits. It was headed for big things. Looks like the base is done, volume and continued rise will confirm it.
Please, please remember that I'm a beginner at T/A so it's best to wait for TechA to post a chart or even GP as they have easy charting capability on their software and would also know more than me. I'd hate to think you're relying on my charts alone, some of mine are really dodgy! BUt I think I'm improving so here goes the chart, good practise till I get it right anyway, price may be trending up in a channel, maybe a minor correction, just a guess:
,,,,okay, it hasn't worked. I'll keep trying. Watch for higher highs with volume.
TjamesX
10th-March-2005, 02:16 AM
Good Work RK,
Your TA is more experienced than my eyeballing of charts!!, my post was more just to get the chart up for all to see - as I don't have charting software... so good stuff
Looks like there's reasonable resistance @ 85c, looking for it to hold above $1.00 for the rest of the week.
TJ
tech/a
10th-March-2005, 07:22 AM
Rich.
Little I could add/good stuff.
RichKid
10th-March-2005, 09:51 AM
Thanks folks, glad it's of some use. It's a good exercise for me to try posting charts. Still not comfortable with the short term picture on KIM (in isolation) I've given you but it looks promising.
I've also just realised I've been calling some flags as pennants and vice versa-not a big difference imo in the threads I've posted on here since characteristics are similar (eg measured moves) but I've got to do it right. I might also have measured a flag breakout as a triangle breakout- can't find that post now, maybe I corrected it. I'll have to tighten up my T/A before I lose money on it- always learning, now where's that copy of Edwards and Magee....
Here's the longterm daily to put things in perspective:
RichKid
10th-March-2005, 10:53 AM
I don't have charting software... so good stuff
TJ
I had similar troubles (still have to a certain extent), I use ComSec (you can register for free and use their charting software and tools) and also just started with Incrediblecharts.com- it's free too- that's where my blue coloured chart is from. Give it a go- it's free and you'll learn lots!!
TjamesX
15th-March-2005, 06:35 PM
KIM up to $1.12 - strong since closing above $1 last week.
from my eyeballing - 1.15 seems to be the next test/resistance level
cheers
TJ
Sweet Synergy
12th-February-2007, 03:43 PM
Nice little break today with good vol. If it breaks .93 it would look like a reversal of trend.
reece55
12th-February-2007, 04:32 PM
This stock has been a dog of late.... however, your right synergy, nice little movement today. I took a positon early in this one but got stopped out pretty quickly..... Plenty of potential here for a sharp move up...
Cheers
GreatPig
21st-February-2007, 11:02 PM
Up 11% today on high volume, with it finally breaking above the downtrend line.
A possible head and shoulders reversal here? Admittedly only small features, but each is associated with higher-than-normal volume.
Cheers,
GP
jammin
29th-April-2007, 02:42 PM
IMHO there could be a double bottom forming with a base of 0.70. The peak between bottoms of around 1.07 would give a possible exit target of 0.70+((1.07-0.70)*2)= $1.44.
Lots of volume in the last 2 weeks lends more weight to the view that there is a change of trend. Only a break above $1.07 will confirm it's in a long term up trend.
On balance volume is not supporting a trend change.
Given past disappointments with this stock if I was taking a longer term view I would wait for the SP to go above $1.07 but I like it as a short term (couple of days) trade going long with stop loss in tight at say $0.66
redandgreen
2nd-June-2007, 03:50 PM
Surprised no one selected this one for the June stock tipping competition.
All up from here imo......:)
Santoro
20th-June-2007, 09:29 PM
I have been watching KIM for a while and was wondering whether anyone has an opinion on the increasing momentum and sp of this stock. ( Quite new here, the cross candlestick looks like it may indicate a change is in play.
watsonc
20th-June-2007, 09:48 PM
Noticed this one on Monday 18th, after 4pm. Something is brewing. Don't know what. Could be worth a short term punt though!
Santoro
20th-June-2007, 10:00 PM
Yes, although everytime this stock looks like its going to move it falls over again but production levels should be at optimum by now....the addition of the last two candles does make one large candle... have to wait and see...
Lachlan6
21st-June-2007, 03:02 PM
OK just going to post a chart on (RIV). After failing in late Feb with a breakout, the stock has since formed a near completion of a double bottom pattern. Stress that this will only be confirmed with a rise above 80c. A few interesting things have popped up though. Look at the divergence in both the OBV and MACD all alluding to a possible bottom for this stock and it may begin to now reverse (if 80 is taken out). However note, the same story was occuring from Dec 06 to Jan 07 last year with nice divergences and although a short term bottom occured, it still eventually fell away sharply. That is why, if I eventually take a long position I will tread with caution. All bets are well and truly off if it falls through crucial support at 69c.
lioness
21st-June-2007, 06:26 PM
I bought in today, looks to me where there is smoke there is fire.
West Australian newspaper stated a rumour it will be subject to takeover bby Gem Diamond. If that happens expect a counter offer from RIO and DeBeers.
Huge volume last week was largest in history of trading also.
AMP no longer substantial shareholder but may sell more for tax loss reasons.
Anyway, does anyone else agree it looks like a trend shift is near??
Dutchy3
21st-June-2007, 10:25 PM
Me ... AMP selling out ... time to buy in.
70 indeed could be a significant support for KIM
Lovely accumulation volume as this stock moves into stronger hands?
lioness
22nd-June-2007, 09:58 AM
Me ... AMP selling out ... time to buy in.
70 indeed could be a significant support for KIM
Lovely accumulation volume as this stock moves into stronger hands?
I agree Dutchy, their track record is questionable to say the least.
About to move to the next resistance point at 81 cents.
smoothsatin
22nd-June-2007, 10:01 AM
I have been eyeing the chart for this for some time also, seems to be in a channel now, closing above .78 is a strong signal
redandgreen
6th-July-2007, 05:40 PM
what a bloodbath today...anyone with any ideas as to why this selling is continuing without mercy.... my reading of things (not the charts) suggest that KIM should be moving in the opposite direction.....
Could the market be wrong? :confused:
Dutchy3
7th-July-2007, 01:44 PM
Not tonight Josephine .... a CLOSE at .65 and I've deleted this one from my watch-list .... I'll wait until it can put in a few BIG WHITES on heavier volumes before reexamining ....
smoothsatin
7th-July-2007, 03:20 PM
I concur, i have been watching this one for awhile as it seemed to be in a bottomed out accumulation phase. breaking .68 is not a good sign. Would rather be short than long on this at the moment i think.
jammin
7th-July-2007, 04:54 PM
Fridays price action would have taken out few stops. Either someone is playing silly buggers taking out the stops or as smoothsatin suggests it is time to go short. Given the failed trend changes in May and June I am forgetting KIM and heading off to find better behaving stocks. (like the iron ore plays).
redandgreen
8th-July-2007, 05:21 PM
Fridays price action would have taken out few stops. Either someone is playing silly buggers taking out the stops or as smoothsatin suggests it is time to go short. Given the failed trend changes in May and June I am forgetting KIM and heading off to find better behaving stocks. (like the iron ore plays).
interesting to watch might hapen next week......I reckon price action suggests manipulation, to what end, it is hard to know.
I hold and am looking forward to a recovery in SP considered by some true believers as well overdue.......
rub92me
11th-July-2007, 11:01 PM
Boy, this stock is really getting a hammering. All the news appears to be good, but for some reason the market doesn't appear to like big yellow diamonds. Could be a takeover candidate soon if the price falls any further :eek:
Santoro
12th-July-2007, 10:33 PM
Yes, KIM is looking a little cheap...no bad news but getting pummeled anyway...I heard GSJBW rated KIM recently as a sell, can anyone confirm or deny this??
reece55
12th-July-2007, 10:36 PM
Yes, KIM is looking a little cheap...no bad news but getting pummeled anyway...I heard GSJBW rated KIM recently as a sell, can anyone confirm or deny this??
Santoro....
Regardless of GSJBW, look at the chart......
Is this a Company that is healthy or in trouble???
I note AMP has pulled out of their 11% stake, now less than 5%......
Whatever is causing this sell off, this Company is the short of the year....... It has just capitulated....
Cheers
rgdk
13th-July-2007, 10:51 AM
The numbers in their recent quarterly were not too bad with the main bane of their life, operating costs per ton coming down towards more profitable levels ($12 pt).
On the flip side they are only making about $13 per ton processed based on their figures. It did seem, that this was abnormally weighted lower based on the lower value diamonds produced but I think the big thing hurting them is the US/AUD x-rate.
Back when they raised capital late december, they had based their ongoing budget forecasts on a 0.7 to 0.75 x-rate if remember correctly, so they are really being hurt by this (like many others).
All said though, this does look a little cheap and oversold in my opinon.
boiler
13th-July-2007, 10:59 AM
Have a look at the chart over a 13 year period it is coming up to a bottom key support level. cheers
zuluwarrior08
13th-July-2007, 11:38 AM
haha this was my pick for july tipping comp. I should've put (short) next to my entry. A lot of people are jumping ship on this one
jammin
13th-July-2007, 12:53 PM
The numbers in their recent quarterly were not too bad with the main bane of their life, operating costs per ton coming down towards more profitable levels ($12 pt).
On the flip side they are only making about $13 per ton processed based on their figures. It did seem, that this was abnormally weighted lower based on the lower value diamonds produced but I think the big thing hurting them is the US/AUD x-rate.
Back when they raised capital late december, they had based their ongoing budget forecasts on a 0.7 to 0.75 x-rate if remember correctly, so they are really being hurt by this (like many others).
All said though, this does look a little cheap and oversold in my opinon.
I have recently finished reading "Reminiscence of a stock operator" and the KIM Quarterly Activities Report. From this the following ideas come to mind.
If the SP was in reality cheap and oversold then there would be buying support from the major holders of the stock reflecting their belief in the numbers reported. The lack of support could be read as an indication that other issues, not detailed in reports, such as the US/AUD x-rate, will have a negative impact on the company and hence it is not worth supporting at this time. Similarly the traders that have shorted, in response the the breaking of the 70c support level, will be assisting the SP down.
Call me cynical, but the SP is not responding to the numbers reported so there must be something else happening.
Techbuy
13th-July-2007, 01:47 PM
I have been watching KIM for a while and yes I got them at a much higher price than todays $0.47 and still dropping. But I recall back around 1998 I bought Ashton Mining also a diamond miner that used to trade at $2.00 and dropped to $0.50 and before you knew it RioTinto bought them out at $2.00 so is this a similar scene and we will see a take over offer very soon?
KIM maintains when the new plant comes on line it will be the fifth biggest diamond miner on the planet.
But the share price does not agree thats for sure..
Oh! dropped to $0.465 as I write this....:confused:
redandgreen
13th-July-2007, 01:52 PM
I suspect that a t/o is a very real possibility I know this has been kicked
around for ages but I have bought again today because there is no other
explanation for this trading behaviour.
Citi and goldamn Sachs have a SELL on the stock however even then Citi's target price is 62c
Why you'd short a stock iwith the possibility of a t/o I have no idea
NTA as per 2006 annual report is 45c
jammin
13th-July-2007, 02:10 PM
Why you'd short a stock iwith the possibility of a t/o I have no idea
NTA as per 2006 annual report is 45c
Red, the short play I have is for a time frame of 1-5 days and is based on T/A not on F/A. IMO when the KIM SP can be seen to have found support again then I would be looking to go long.
I understand if you are only looking at the fundamentals there is no obvious reason to short.
redandgreen
13th-July-2007, 04:54 PM
I have been watching KIM for a while and yes I got them at a much higher price than todays $0.47 and still dropping. But I recall back around 1998 I bought Ashton Mining also a diamond miner that used to trade at $2.00 and dropped to $0.50 and before you knew it RioTinto bought them out at $2.00 so is this a similar scene and we will see a take over offer very soon?
KIM maintains when the new plant comes on line it will be the fifth biggest diamond miner on the planet.
But the share price does not agree thats for sure..
Oh! dropped to $0.465 as I write this....:confused:
I would have thought that this has to be similar to Ashton Mining situation only that Rio now has its hands full with Alcan, so might have to be GEM (pure speculation of course.) I expect if the offer comes it will appear to be at a significant premium to this week's trading range but disappointing for those that have been in this one for a while
good luck to all longs
Santoro
13th-July-2007, 10:00 PM
Let me know if I'm working this out wrong but end June 2006, KIM had:
100 tonnes @ $A1300-1400 (costs)
A$234 average per carat
7.2 cpht (carats per hundred tonne)
so sales of around $A1685 per hundred tonne - $1350 of costs = gross $335 per hundred tonne
By June 2007, KIM had:
Lowered the costs to A$1250 per hundred tonne
A$171 average per carat
7.9 cpht
now sales of $1350 per hundred tonne - $1250 of costs = gross $100 per hundred tonne
Looks like the price per carat may have dropped by 10-15% in this time as on currency exchange alone; A$171 currently is equivalent to $US150 (@0.87) but in June 2006 $US150 would have got A$202 (@ 0.74)
This stock is definitely hurt by the exchange rate.
Should point out that the throughput has increased significantly up from 2.1 million tonnes (June 2006) to 4.8 million tonnes (June 2007), not quite enough to offset the lower revenues but very necessary....should have some good upside should the US$ strengthen....
------------------------------
DYOR
redandgreen
16th-July-2007, 09:28 AM
I reckon the bad news has been fully priced now, I would be very surprised
to see this stock much lower than its Friday's trading range
What I don't understand is that there is no consideration for the good story
in the SP. You are left scratching your head wondering there must be
more to this than meets the eye?????
A most frustrating stock, making a absolute nonsense of all my exhaustive
research over the last 6 month
greenfs
16th-July-2007, 04:45 PM
I think that you are on the money with the sp having finally kicked back, albeit a little, today.
I am not a holder of this stock, but am tempted to buy now in the expectation that we may see some jagged peaks and troughs that could result in some short-term trading opportunities over coming weeks & months.
What do others think about this prospect?
redandgreen
17th-July-2007, 09:53 AM
there appears to be buyer interest today....can we trust it?
I might sell some into this rally, holding a large position which might not be justified, would love to continue to hold but this stock is way too unpredictable even though the fundamentals look good imo
kennas
17th-July-2007, 09:56 AM
Someone after 385K@56 is interest considering this chart. Perhaps it'll be pulled. Looks just slightly sick to me. :eek: Have good exit strategy. :2twocents Good luck!!
redandgreen
17th-July-2007, 11:23 AM
Trading Halt
is it the T/o? Is it another capital raising? Or something completely from left field...................
Whatever it might be, it is time for the SP to head north....imo
kennas
17th-July-2007, 11:30 AM
"Whatever it might be, it is time for the SP to head north....imo" redandgreen
Sorry, R&D, based on what?
redandgreen
17th-July-2007, 11:55 AM
based on many positive company announcements over the last six months...the recent upgrade of resource to mention but one ...the market instead of reacting positively has sold the stock down
I have felt for some time that there has been unusual trading on this stock..maybe when the TH is lifted we will know more.
redandgreen
18th-July-2007, 11:06 AM
When TH is lifted expect a takeover offer from GEM Diamonds UK
Congratulations to all holders who kept the faith......:)
kennas
18th-July-2007, 12:04 PM
When TH is lifted expect a takeover offer from GEM Diamonds UK
Congratulations to all holders who kept the faith......:)R&G, I'm not sure if those 'keeping the faith' from $1.90 would be that happy. :( It really hasn't been a great investment unless you bought it in the past 2 weeks. Maybe!
redandgreen
18th-July-2007, 01:07 PM
I have been accumulating over the last 6 months (doubled up last week.):).....so hopefully it will turn out to be a good call...........
SYDNEY, July 18 (Reuters) - UK miner Gem Diamonds Ltd. (GEMD.L: Quote, Profile , Research) is set to bid for Australia's Kimberley Diamond Co. (KIM.AX: Quote, Profile , Research) in a deal worth more than A$225 million ($196 million), the Australian Financial Review said on Wednesday.
Citing no sources, the paper said Gem has bought a stake in Kimberley (KDC.L: Quote, Profile , Research) in preparation for a bid after Kimberley's shares lost 25 percent of their value last week.
Kimberley shares were placed on a trading halt on Tuesday pending an announcement.
Perth-based Kimberley -- which has one mining project, Ellendale, in Western Australia's Kimberley Region -- had been the subject of takeover speculation earlier this year, with Gem among those seen as a potential bidder.
Kimberly has a market value of about A$225 million. The paper said Gem has about US$519 million in cash, more than enough to offer a premium for Kimberley.
Kimberley posted a net loss of A$16.2 million in the year to June 2006. ($1=A$1.15)
canglan
19th-July-2007, 12:00 PM
I am happy that I had faith in KIM. Opened at 0.685, now huge buying orders at .675-.680. :)
It should get back to its original value very soon.
zuluwarrior08
19th-July-2007, 03:12 PM
I am happy that I had faith in KIM. Opened at 0.685, now huge buying orders at .675-.680. :)
It should get back to its original value very soon.
Cnglan Im not so sure it will get back to its original value.
GEM have offered equivalent of 0.70 per share for KIM, so it will be highlighyl unlikely the SP moves higher than 0.72/3 :mad:
redandgreen
19th-July-2007, 06:10 PM
the SP should and will move higher
this offer is opportunistic in the extreme.
I, for one will not be accepting such a low-ball offer.
An offer of 70c is beneath comtempt:mad:
redandgreen
21st-July-2007, 11:26 AM
jump on board, GEM Diamonds will be shamed into offering more than the
bogus 70c offer that is currently on the table
DYOR but this could be one of the more interesting takeovers plays atm
Follow closely how KIM has traded over the last six months and draw your
own conclusions
Techbuy
5th-September-2007, 12:48 PM
The buy out offer from GEM arrived to day offering $0.70 per share.
IMO: It seems to be a steal at that, more so since BDI has found the Green Diamonds and KIM owns 39.14% of BDI.
redandgreen
5th-September-2007, 12:58 PM
i'm in no hurry to return the acceptance form....
GEM should be paying a lot more than 70c with all things considered......
I'll wait til the 11th hour b4 sending in my acceptance
Techbuy
5th-September-2007, 01:34 PM
i'm in no hurry to return the acceptance form....
GEM should be paying a lot more than 70c with all things considered......
I'll wait til the 11th hour b4 sending in my acceptance
Seems the directors jumped ship really quickly to sell out, so what do they know we don't?
But still, I will follow you and wait to see what happens next.
redandgreen
5th-September-2007, 04:38 PM
remember how quickly the board were prepared to accept $2.35 for CSM
not saying that there is any particular comparison here but the KIM board at the time of the offer was in a difficult situation..
Things have improved since on a number of fronts AUD, green diamonds BDI etc
Hoping for more than 70c .....
redandgreen
5th-September-2007, 05:55 PM
remember how quickly the board were prepared to accept $2.35 for CSM
not saying that there is any particular comparison here but the KIM board at the time of the offer was in a difficult situation..
Things have improved since on a number of fronts AUD, green diamonds BDI etc
Hoping for more than 70c .....
redandgreen
8th-October-2007, 10:25 AM
UBS has upped its stake...wondering whether GEM will just have to come up
with a better offer in these coming weeks in order to gain shareholder
acceptance
I am hoping for a CSM type saga KIM is way undervalued @70c
